CL – Climate: Past, Present & Future

EGU22-2912 | Presentations | CL5.3.4 | Highlight | Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture

Decadal climate predictions, impacts of Arctic sea ice loss, and the signal-to-noise paradox 

Doug Smith

Many sectors of society are vulnerable to decadal changes in climate, which impact food security, freshwater availability, spread of pests and diseases, heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, wildfires, energy supply and demand, transport, migration, and conflict. On decadal timescales climate is influenced by both internal variability and changes in radiative forcing. Climate predictions that are initialised with observations are needed to account for all of these factors and will be reviewed in this talk.

Understanding the drivers of decadal climate is crucial for gaining confidence in forecasts. One hypothesis, namely that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerly winds, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project was developed to address this issue and results from coordinated multi-model experiments will be presented that support the above hypothesis and suggest that this effect is underestimated by current models. However, even when accounting for this underestimation, the response to Arctic sea ice is small compared to yearly variations in mid-latitude winters.

For predictions to be useful they must be skilful and reliable. There is mounting evidence that models may underestimate the strength of predictable signals, especially for atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. This error has been termed the “signal-to-noise paradox” since it leads to the unexpected situation that models can predict the real world better than one of their own ensemble members. Skilful predictions can be achieved using a very large ensemble, but the model output cannot be taken at face value and needs calibrating to obtain skilful and reliable forecasts. Given the potential impacts of changes in atmospheric circulation, understanding why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models, and assessing the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections of the coming decades, are high priority areas for future research.

How to cite: Smith, D.: Decadal climate predictions, impacts of Arctic sea ice loss, and the signal-to-noise paradox, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2912, 2022.

EGU22-1422 | Presentations | CL1.1.4 | Highlight | Milutin Milankovic Medal Lecture

Milankovitch Theory and Global Monsoon 

Hai Cheng

  The Milankovitch Theory of orbital climate change postulates that changes in the caloric summer half-year insolation (or Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) at ~65°N latitude) drive changes in the ice-sheets extent (i.e., global ice-volume) at Earth’s orbital periods (i.e., the sensu-stricto theory). These insolation-driven changes in turn, incite ancillary changes in other parts of the global climate systems via various forcing and feedback mechanisms (the sensu-lato hypothesis). In this theoretical framework the high-latitude glaciation processes took the center stage while the low-latitude global monsoon was essentially excluded. In the last two decades, large numbers of cave d18O records with precise radiometric chronologies have propelled speleothems to the forefront of paleoclimatology. Of particular interest are the speleothem records from North America that reveal a persistent orbital pacing of the North American climate at the precession band, which is nearly in phase with changes in the global ice-volume and atmospheric CO2 but lags June insolation at 65°N by ~5000 years, in accordance with the sensu-stricto Milankovitch theory. Contrastingly, the low-latitude tropical speleothem records manifest an orbital-scale pattern of global monsoon, which is dominated by precession cycles with a nearly anti-phased relation between the two hemispheres. Importantly, the monsoon variations track summer (July/January) insolation without significant lags at the precession band. We thus suggest that precession-induced changes in summer insolation produce distinct climate variability in the ice-sheet proximal and tropical regions predominantly via the (delayed) ice-volume/CO2 forcing/feedbacks and nearly-in-phase monsoon/CH4 responses/feedbacks.

  As for global-scale millennial events that were superimposed on orbital-scale climate variations, the essence of these events—i.e., conventional ice age terminations and other smaller events (the so-called ‘low-amplitude versions of terminations’), is virtually similar. The time-series of millennial-scale variations after removing orbital insolation signals from the speleothem monsoon record and long-term trend in the Antarctic ice core temperature (δD) record characterize the millennial climate variances of both ice age termination and low-amplitude versions of termination events. Remarkably, the millennial-scale variations show significant obliquity and precession cycles that are in-phase with North Hemisphere June insolation, implying a critical role of changes in orbital insolation in triggering the ice age terminations. These observations, in turn, provide new insights into the classic ‘100 ka problem’.

  Indeed, a more comprehensive picture of orbital theory of climate is steadily emerging with the growth of new geological proxy data, particularly the low-latitude speleothem data from the vast global monsoon regime, providing critical complements to marine and ice-core data.

How to cite: Cheng, H.: Milankovitch Theory and Global Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1422, 2022.

EGU22-8246 | Presentations | CL3.1.2 | Highlight | CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture

Quantifying Causal Pathways of Teleconnections 

Marlene Kretschmer

Due to their relevance for regional weather and climate, teleconnections are an extremely active area of research. One key task is to quantify the contribution of a teleconnection to regional anomalies in both models and observations. This is, for instance, important to improve forecasts on time scales ranging from subseasonal to multidecadal, or to attribute ensemble spreads to changes in large-scale drivers. However, robustly estimating the effects of a teleconnection remains challenging due to the often simultaneous influences of multiple climate modes. While physical knowledge about the involved mechanisms is often available, how to extract a particular causal pathway from data are usually unclear.

In this talk I argue for adopting a causal inference-based framework in the statistical analysis of teleconnections to overcome this challenge. A causal approach requires explicitly including expert knowledge in the statistical analysis, which allows one to draw quantitative conclusions. I illustrate some of the key concepts of this theory with simple examples of well-known atmospheric teleconnections. Moreover, I show how the deductive nature of a causal approach can help to assess the plausible influence of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude winter weather, thereby helping to reconcile differences between models and observations. I finally discuss the particular challenges and advantages a causal inference-based approach implies for climate science.

 

References

Kretschmer, M., Adams, S. V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N., Saggioro, E., & Shepherd, T. G. (2021). Quantifying Causal Pathways of Teleconnections, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(12), E2247-E2263. Retrieved Jan 13, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/12/BAMS-D-20-0117.1.xml

Kretschmer, M., Zappa, G., and Shepherd, T. G. (2020), The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes, Weather and Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020

How to cite: Kretschmer, M.: Quantifying Causal Pathways of Teleconnections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8246, 2022.

EGU22-133 | Presentations | CL0

Process-based GCMs evaluation over South Tropical South America during the dry-to-wet transition season following a weather typing approach 

Matias Olmo, Jhan Carlo Espinoza, Maria Laura Bettolli, Juan Pablo Sierra, Clementine Junquas, and Paola Arias

The representation of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) by global climate models (GCMs) is of key relevance for a better comprehension of the physical mechanisms behind the recent and future climate changes over South Tropical South America (STSA) in a global warming scenario. During the last four decades STSA experimented a lengthening of the dry season related to diverse forcings, leading to an increase in fire activity and severe socio-environmental impacts. In the present study, a set of 16 GCMs simulations from the CMIP6 experiment were evaluated during the historical period 1979-2014 in terms of how well they reproduced the atmospheric circulation over STSA through a weather-typing (WTs) approach. 9 WTs were first identified based on low-level wind anomalies from the ERA5 reanalysis, which summarized the atmospheric variations over STSA throughout the year. Focus was put on the representation of WTs during the SAMS initiation and the dry-to-wet transition season (from July to October). Model performance depended on the seasonal cycle and spatial structure of the WTs. Some of the GCMs adequately reproduced the different WTs and their spatio-temporal configurations, with lower skills in the transition seasons. Furthermore, GCMs tended to go from dry to wet conditions too quickly, evidencing deficiencies in the representation of the SAMS onset. This was particularly associated with a poor representation of the southerly wind intrusions to STSA and the intra-seasonal variability of the South American low-level jet. In terms of the relationship between WTs and rainfall on interannual time-scales, a selection of GCMs was able to associate the occurrence of anomalous wet and dry years with specific WTs, indicating well-represented physical processes modulating precipitation variability. Overall, this study could identify few GCMs that managed to simulate the main atmospheric circulation features in STSA (among them, the CESM2, CMCC-CM2-HR4 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models), which is particularly important for driving high-resolution modelling experiments as well as for the analysis of future projections.

How to cite: Olmo, M., Espinoza, J. C., Bettolli, M. L., Sierra, J. P., Junquas, C., and Arias, P.: Process-based GCMs evaluation over South Tropical South America during the dry-to-wet transition season following a weather typing approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-133, 2022.

EGU22-1953 | Presentations | CL0

Probabilistic Estimation of mid-Holocene global mean sea level 

Roger Creel, Jacqueline Austermann, Robert Kopp, Nicole Khan, Erica Ashe, Jonathan Kingslake, and Torsten Albrecht

Rising sea levels in the 21st century threaten coastal communities with inundation, yet projecting the relative and global mean sea level response to climate warming is complex. Lack of contemporary analogues for future climate dynamics has turned attention to periods in the geologic past that can illuminate how Earth’s climate system reacts to temperature forcing. Recent evidence suggests the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may have retreated inland of their present-day extents during the mid-late Holocene (~8-3 ka), then readvanced until the pre-industrial. These findings have highlighted the utility of the mid-Holocene—when summer temperatures in the northern hemisphere may have neared 4 degrees hotter than preindustrial levels—as a partial analogue for future warming.

Here we present a new probabilistic estimate of mid-Holocene global mean sea level (GMSL). We construct an ensemble of global ice sheet reconstructions for the last 80 kyr that spans a range of possible mid-Holocene GMSL scenarios. We predict relative sea level from each model accounting for glacial isostatic adjustment and using a range of solid earth structures. We then compare these predictions to 10,733 postglacial sea-level indicators and weigh the GMSL curves from each ice model using data-model fits. The constraints placed on mid-Holocene global mean sea level clarify climate dynamics during this critical interval in Earth’s recent history, and enable new estimates of post-glacial Antarctic ice volume and the likelihood of mid-Holocene West Antarctic ice sheet readvance.

 

How to cite: Creel, R., Austermann, J., Kopp, R., Khan, N., Ashe, E., Kingslake, J., and Albrecht, T.: Probabilistic Estimation of mid-Holocene global mean sea level, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1953, 2022.

EGU22-5004 | Presentations | CL0

Submerged beachrock: A tool for reconstructing relative sea level change example from Tekirdag coastline, Sea of Marmara, Turkey 

Ufuk Tarı, Gürsel Sunal, Orkan Özcan, and Cenk Yaltırak

The beachrock formations represent a significant paleo-environmental proxy because they can record both the vertical and the horizontal evolution of the coastline. They have been used to assess Holocene coastline evolution and crustally induced relative sea level (RSL) change, notably in the Sea of Marmara. In this study, we report existence of the less known submerged beachrocks in the nearshore coastal area of Tekirdag city (Altinova), the northern Sea of Marmara. The beachrocks found in the Tekirdag coastline are locally spread, parallel to the coastline with an extend of about 5 km and at depths ranging from -2 to 0m below present sea level. The beachrock is defined by a calcite-cemented shoreline sandstone. The cement mineralogy and morphology of the beachrocks are indicative of the diagenetic environment, and therefore the examination of the cement characteristics and microstratigraphy can allow identify the type of cement and spatial relationship between the past shoreline and beachrock formation zone.

The Tekirdag coastal area is located in the western Marmara Region. The western coasts of the Marmara Region include a number of natural features inherited from their coastal evolution. Besides, relative sea level change during late Quaternary in this region and its vicinity are generally not homogeneous as a result of the tectonic activity controlled by the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) which played a crucial role in the coastline evolution at different periods of the region.

The aim of our study to reconstruct the shoreline modification using beachrocks in the study area. For this purpose, we coupled a series of methodologies for the paleo-environmental and geomorphological study of the coastal zone and the shallow submarine area, which included: a) coring from submerged beachrocks, b) petrographic and microstratigraphic analyses of cementation, c) monitoring of underwater beachrocks and coastal zone by drone and e) dating the formation of beachrocks. Through our analyses we aim to better contribute the use of beachrocks as accurate proxies for the RSL variation in the study area.

 

How to cite: Tarı, U., Sunal, G., Özcan, O., and Yaltırak, C.: Submerged beachrock: A tool for reconstructing relative sea level change example from Tekirdag coastline, Sea of Marmara, Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5004, 2022.

EGU22-5675 | Presentations | CL0

Late Holocene sea-level change in southern New Zealand 

Ed Garrett, Roland Gehrels, Bruce Hayward, Rewi Newnham, Maria Gehrels, Craig Morey, and Sonke Dangendorf

We present new proxy-based sea-level reconstructions for southern New Zealand spanning the last millennium. These palaeo sea-level records usefully complement sparse Southern Hemisphere proxy and tide-gauge sea-level datasets and, in combination with instrumental observations, can test hypotheses about the drivers of 20th century global sea-level change, including land-based ice melt and regional sterodynamics. We develop sea-level transfer functions from regional datasets of salt-marsh foraminifera to establish a new proxy-based sea-level record at Mokomoko Inlet, at the southern tip of the South Island, and to improve the previously published sea-level reconstruction at Pounawea, located about 110 km to the east. Chronologies are based on radiocarbon, radiocaesium, stable lead isotope and pollen analyses. Both records are in good agreement and show sea level several decimetres below present over the last millennium, before a rapid sea-level rise in the first half of the 20th century that reached maximum rates in the 1940s. Previously reported discrepancies between proxy-based sea-level records and tide-gauge records are partially reconciled by accounting for barystatic and sterodynamic components of regional sea-level rise. We conclude that the rapid sea-level rise during the middle 20th century along the coast of southern New Zealand was primarily driven by regional thermal expansion and ocean dynamics.

How to cite: Garrett, E., Gehrels, R., Hayward, B., Newnham, R., Gehrels, M., Morey, C., and Dangendorf, S.: Late Holocene sea-level change in southern New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5675, 2022.

EGU22-6484 | Presentations | CL0

Tracking ice-sheet dynamics by detrital feldspar Pb-isotope and 87Rb/87Sr dating during the Middle Miocene Climatic Transition, Weddell Sea, Antarctica 

Roland Neofitu, Chris Mark, Suzanne O'Connell, Samuel Kelley, Delia Rösel, Thomas Zack, Michael Flowerdew, and J. Stephen Daly

Antarctic ice-sheet instability is recorded by ice-rafted debris (IRD) in mid- to high-latitude marine sediment, especially throughout climate transitions. The middle Miocene climatic transition (MMCT), 14.2 to 13.8 Ma, which marks the end of a significant warm period during the mid-Miocene, saw a rapid cooling of ca. 6-7 °C in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. This climatic shift was also accompanied by a global δ18O excursion of ca. 1‰, indicating a time of global cooling and significant Antarctic ice expansion (Shevenell et al., 2004). The MMCT is recorded by numerous IRD-rich sediment horizons in deep-sea sediment cores around the Antarctic margin, reflecting iceberg calving during times of ice-sheet instability. Resolving the locations of iceberg calving sites by detrital provenance analysis during the MMCT is also an important tool for forecasting effects of anthropogenic climate change.

Here we present results of a multi-proxy provenance study by using K- and plagioclase feldspar, selected due to their relative abundance in clastic sediment, and tendency to incorporate Rb (K-feldspar only), Pb, and Sr at analytically useful concentrations, thus enabling source-terrane fingerprinting. While Pb-isotope fingerprinting is an established method for provenance analysis of glaciogenic sediment (Flowerdew et al., 2012), the combination with in-situ Sr-isotope fingerprinting and 87Rb/87Sr dating is a novel approach. These techniques are applied to deep-sea core ODP113-694, recovered from the Weddell Sea, ca. 750 km from the continental rise in 4671 m of water. This location is ideal, as it acts as a major iceberg graveyard making it a key IRD depocenter (Barker, Kennett et al., 1988). Within the core, several IRD layers were identified and analysed with preliminary depositional ages of 14.09 to 14.26 Ma.

Our findings are consistent with predictions made by recent palaeo-ice sheet models (eg., Gasson et al. 2016), which predict the development of sizeable and discrete embayments around the continent, including the Weddell Sea. We argue that the IRD derived from the unstable sector associated with this embayment formation at the time.

Barker, P.F., Kennett, J.P., et al., 1988, Proc. Init. Repts. (Pt. A): ODP, 113, College Station, TX (Ocean Drilling Program).

Flowerdew, M.J., et al., 2012, Chemical Geology, v. 292–293, p. 88–102, doi: 10.1016/j.chemgeo.2011.11.006.

Gasson, E, et al., 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 113, (13), p. 3459-3464, doi: www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1516130113.

Shevenell, A.E., et al., 2004, Science, v. 305, p. 1766-1770, doi: 10.1126/science.1100061.

How to cite: Neofitu, R., Mark, C., O'Connell, S., Kelley, S., Rösel, D., Zack, T., Flowerdew, M., and Daly, J. S.: Tracking ice-sheet dynamics by detrital feldspar Pb-isotope and 87Rb/87Sr dating during the Middle Miocene Climatic Transition, Weddell Sea, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6484, 2022.

EGU22-7988 | Presentations | CL0

Ancient Tillandsia landbeckii dune ecosystems and their potential to reveal past variations in coastal fog moisture during the Holocene in the Atacama Desert 

Claudio Latorre, Sergio Contreras, Andrea Jaeschke, Juan Luis Garcia, and Camilo del Río

Tillandsia landbeckii is a bromeliad that inhabits the hyperarid coast of the Atacama Desert where it survives solely on moisture and nutrients from fog. It does so by constituting a unique dune ecosystem that maximizes its fog capture potential as well as preserving layers of buried tillandsia plants. These buried layers can survive over multiple millennia and here we present data based on stratigraphic, radiocarbon, stable isotopes, and leaf wax analyses that we are applying to these ancient leaves and stems to reconstruct past variations in fog moisture and nutrient cycling. Some of the oldest buried layers date back to >10,000 14C yrs BP and our results show that both d15N and leaf waxes are capable of tracking variations in moisture changes although we observed significant variation in d15N values across living plants which may be due to the plants' age. Past variations in fog likely track variations in large-scale synoptic climate features such as the height of the Marine Boundary Layer and the strength of the Southern Pacific Anticyclone.

How to cite: Latorre, C., Contreras, S., Jaeschke, A., Garcia, J. L., and del Río, C.: Ancient Tillandsia landbeckii dune ecosystems and their potential to reveal past variations in coastal fog moisture during the Holocene in the Atacama Desert, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7988, 2022.

EGU22-10055 | Presentations | CL0

Fjord sedimentary signature of the last surging phase of Pio XI Glacier (Chilean Patagonia) 

Loic Piret, Sebastien Bertrand, and Carlos Moffat

Proglacial sediments hold continuous and high-resolution records of past glacier dynamics. In this study, we examine the sediments of Eyre Fjord (Chilean Patagonia, 49°S), which is fed by Pio XI Glacier, to gain a better understanding of how the surging phase of a growing glacier is recorded in marine sediments. Pio XI Glacier has experienced a net advance of >10 km since 1945 and has had several surging phases that each last 2 – 3 years and occur every ~14 years. The last reported surging phases happened between 1976 – 1979, 1997 – 1998, and 2014 – 2018. Thirty CTD profiles taken in the fjord along one longitudinal and three transverse transects in February 2019 show that sediment transfer through the fjord during a quiescent (i.e., non-surging) phase in summer primarily happens by means of widespread (unchannelised) hyperpycnal flows that are 20 – 100 m thick. To assess spatiotemporal variability in sedimentation throughout the fjord, nine sediment cores were collected in 2019. Concentrations of short-lived radionuclides suggest a sedimentation rate of 3 – 20 cm/year. Sediment grain size and magnetic susceptibility, (CT) density, and inorganic geochemistry (Fe, Ti, K, Mn, Zr, Zn, Rb, Sr), which were obtained at higher resolution, were used as proxies for hydrodynamic conditions in the fjord. The longest sediment record holds fine glacial mud and low density sediments between 135 – 70 cm and in the upper 10 cm, which indicate relatively low hydrodynamic activity, likely corresponding to the quiescent phases before 2014 after 2018. Between 70 cm and 10 cm, the overall denser and coarser sediments intercalated with cm-thick sandy layers indicate higher hydrodynamic activity and flood events, most likely representing the most recent (2014 – 2018) surging phase of the glacier. Interestingly, the thickest and coarsest flood deposits seem to be concentrated at the top of the sediment unit that represents the surging phase suggesting that the floods are the most intense towards the end of the surging phase. Overall, these results show that quiescent and surging phases of surge-type glaciers leave distinct sedimentary signatures in fjord sediments, offering the possibility to use longer sediment records to identify former surging phases.

How to cite: Piret, L., Bertrand, S., and Moffat, C.: Fjord sedimentary signature of the last surging phase of Pio XI Glacier (Chilean Patagonia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10055, 2022.

EGU22-10174 | Presentations | CL0

Sedimentological facies characterization of Pliocene key interglacial-glacial intervals, IODP site 1361A, East Antarctic Wilkes Land margin 

Julia Gutiérrez-Pastor, Carlota Escutia, Francisco José Jiménez-Espejo, Andrés Salvador Rigual-Hernández, María Ángeles Bárcena, Robert McKay, and Cecilia Morales

Marine sediment cores containing a unique Pliocene paleoenvironmental record were collected from the East Antarctic Wilkes Land continental rise by the IODP Expedition 318 at Site U1361 (Escutia et al., 2011). Site U1361 is located in front of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) were, today, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is grounded below sea level (marine-based) and therefore more vulnerable to climate changes.

We have conducted a facies analysis using shipboard measurements taken during Expedition 318 (i.e., physical properties data such as density (GRA) and magnetic susceptibility (MST) and high-resolution digital images), complemented with continuous elemental geochemical analyses. In addition, we have conducted high-resolution siliceous microfossil analyses to characterize past “warmer-than-present” intervals during the Pliocene warm period (~ 3-5 Ma) and their terminations recorded in site U1361 between ~ 73 to 123 mbsf. Our study is complemented by a pilot high-resolution detailed work on siliceous microfossils conducted from 3.69 to y 3.56 Ma that captures changes in sea ice cover and oceanic conditions (Armbrecht et al., 2018).

Preliminary analyses show that sediments consist of alternating intervals of interglacial diatom-rich/bearing silty clay with dispersed clasts that are ~ 0.5 to 8 m thick, and glacial sparsely laminated bioturbated clays with occasionally dispersed clasts.  In general, interglacial sediments is characterized by lower density, higher MST values, lower Mn/Ti and Fe/Ti ratios, and high Ca/Al, Si/Al, and Ba/Al ratios. Bioturbated clay with any dispersed clasts has a marked opposite trend (i.e., higher density, lower MST values, lower Ca/Al, Si/Al, and Ba/Al ratios and higher Mn/Ti and Fe/Ti ratios). This changes in lithology, physical properties and geochemical composition record significant changes in paleoenvironmental conditions. However, each glacial/interglacial (and vice versa) period exhibit specific characteristics and diatom associations pointing to different sea ice conditions during the selected Pliocene intervalsthat can be indirectly linked to ice-sheet dynamics in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results of this study are relevant in order to understand the response of the EAIS dynamics and marine biota to an increase of the ocean surface temperatures during the transition from atmospheric CO2 concentrations similar to pre-industrial to concentrations close to present values (410 ppm).

This work has been conducted in the frame of projects H2020-MSCA-IF-2018-ANTICE-841980/CTM2017-89711-C2-1-P and is a contribution to the SCAR INSTANT Program.

Escutia, C. et al., 2011 doi:10.2204/​iodp.proc.318.105.2011

Armbrecht et al., 2018. doi:10.1016/j.marmicro.2017.10.008

How to cite: Gutiérrez-Pastor, J., Escutia, C., Jiménez-Espejo, F. J., Rigual-Hernández, A. S., Bárcena, M. Á., McKay, R., and Morales, C.: Sedimentological facies characterization of Pliocene key interglacial-glacial intervals, IODP site 1361A, East Antarctic Wilkes Land margin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10174, 2022.

EGU22-10609 | Presentations | CL0

Pre-satellite retreat of Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers: Recent results from sediment cores 

Julia Wellner, Rachel Clark, Asmara Lehrmann, Allison Lepp, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Rebecca Totten, Lauren Simkins, Michael Comas, Elaine Mawbey, Rebecca Hopkins, James Smith, John Anderson, Kelly Hogan, Frank Nitsche, Alastair Graham, and Robert Larter

Thwaites Glacier (TG) is thinning and accelerating while sitting on a landward-dipping bed, with an ice shelf that is rapidly disintegrating and losing its ability to buttress ice flow from upstream, and is in deep water that allows warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to reach its grounding zone.  Significant retreat of TG would trigger loss of ice across the region.  In recent decades, the mass balance of TG has become increasingly negative, suggesting that unstable retreat may have already begun.  The Thwaites Offshore Research (THOR) group has just completed four field deployments aimed at understanding the recent history of TG and neighboring ice, including Pine Island Glacier (PIG).  Three cruises on the RVIB N.B. Palmer, combined with sub-ice-shelf sediment coring, provide a suite of new data along the TG and PIG margins.  Data include multibeam surveys, 3.5 kHz subbottom profiler, over 100 new sediment cores, and high-resolution seismic profiles.  Break-up of floating ice cover in front of TG in 2019 allowed surveying of previously unmapped seafloor.  Major calving of PIG in 2020 allowed marine surveying over the locations where sub-ice-shelf cores were collected in the past, allowing direct ties between ice-based and marine work.  As of this writing in January 2022, we are entering into the Amundsen Sea for our third marine field season. 

 

Sediment cores record the history of grounding-zone retreat and ice interaction with the ocean over timescales from decades to several thousand years.  Proxies used to reconstruct ice and ocean histories include sedimentary facies analysis, diatom and foraminiferal assemblage data, and geochemical analyses.  Sedimentological analyses show a diverse array of lithofacies attributed to different environmental conditions.  Many cores across the region contain laminated mud with sparse gravel and sand, suggesting deposition of meltwater deposits. Downcore 210Pb measurements are used to create age models of the past ~100 years.  Combination of ages with facies models, including CT scans, reveals that the progressive detachment of Thwaites from pinning points began in the mid twentieth century, coincident with retreat of PIG (Smith et al., 2017) and with increasing advection of warm water onto the Amundsen shelf (Hillenbrand et al., 2017).  Conversely, Cranton Bay, to the northeast of PIG and separated from Pine Island Bay by a shallow sill, appears to be characterized by cold deep water and high productivity, allowing it to serve as an endmember different from the records obtained proximal to the large glacial outlets where CDW is impinging.

 

The satellite record of glacial retreat is inherently short.  Observations are accumulating about forcing mechanisms that can impact the stability of ice, such as increased CDW on the Amundsen Sea shelf.  However, without the time to observe the response of the ice, discovery of the forcing mechanisms is just half the story.  The other half of the story is completed by using the paleo record to see how ice has responded to drivers in the past.

How to cite: Wellner, J., Clark, R., Lehrmann, A., Lepp, A., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Totten, R., Simkins, L., Comas, M., Mawbey, E., Hopkins, R., Smith, J., Anderson, J., Hogan, K., Nitsche, F., Graham, A., and Larter, R.: Pre-satellite retreat of Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers: Recent results from sediment cores, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10609, 2022.

EGU22-10721 | Presentations | CL0 | Highlight

Long term characterization of heat waves in Brazil and their impacts on mortality rates 

Djacinto Monteiro dos Santos, Beatriz N. Garcia, João L. Geirinhas, Ana Russo, Leonardo F. Peres, and Renata Libonati

Climate Change has increased the intensity, duration, and frequency of extreme weather events such as heatwaves (HW), which have impacts on ecosystems, economics, and human populations, including adverse health effects and the increase in the number of deaths due to the heat stress. However, there are still few studies evaluating the occurrence of adverse health due to HW in South America. Particularly in Brazil, regional differences in the effects of heatwaves are expected due to their continental dimensions, which makes it necessary to carry out local studies. This work presents a long term analysis of the occurrence of HW in the 14 major metropolitan regions (MRs) in Brazil, namely: Manaus, Belém, Salvador, Recife, Fortaleza, Goiânia, Brasília, Cuiabá, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Curitiba and Florianópolis. Observational temperature data (1970-2020) provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) were used to compute the Extreme Heat Factor (EHF) index, which was used to identify and classify HW in terms of severity.  Significant and positive trends in the frequency of HW were observed over decades in all MRs, particularly in the north (Manaus and Belém) and central west region (Goiania and Brasilia). Particularly, from 2014 to 2019, all the MRs presented HW regime every year, including severe and/or extreme events. In general, the longest and the most intense HW in Brazilian MRs occurred in the last decade (2010-2020), with the exception of the 1997–1998 El Niño-related events. Daily mortality and hospital admission data from the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) were used to assess the relationships between HW and health. Results indicate excess mortality (observed to expected ratio) during HW events in the MRs studied, with the elderly being the most vulnerable age group, in agreement with previous studies. The cause of death and the gender susceptibility to HW were also analyzed, and the results vary among the different MRs. This work provides an extensive characterization of the occurrence of HW in Brazil and valuable insights for the implementation of public mitigation and adaptation strategies in some of the most populated regions of South America.

This work was supported by FIOCRUZ [grant VPPCB-003-FIO-19] and FAPERJ [grant E26/202.714/2019]. D.M.S. was supported by FIOCRUZ [grant VPPCB-003-FIO-19].

How to cite: Monteiro dos Santos, D., N. Garcia, B., L. Geirinhas, J., Russo, A., F. Peres, L., and Libonati, R.: Long term characterization of heat waves in Brazil and their impacts on mortality rates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10721, 2022.

EGU22-12297 | Presentations | CL0

Late Holocene sea-level change and storms in southwestern Norway based on new data from intertidal basins and salt marshes 

Max Holthuis, Francis Chantel Nixon, Malin Kylander, Willem van der Bilt, Jake Martin, and Thomas Lakeman

Most relative sea level (RSL) curves in Norway have been solidly constructed using sea-level index points (SLIPs) from isolation basins. Many of these curves show RSL falling at a slow and steady rate to modern sea level during the late Holocene, despite a lack of SLIPs younger than ca. 2000 years. Tide gauge records from southern and western Norway indicate that RSL may have been rising since they were installed (ca. 100 years ago), while the few RSL curves with one or two SLIPs younger than 2000 years BP hint that rates of sea-level fall accelerated during this period. This study aims to close the gap between palaeo and instrumental data by generating late Holocene SLIPs from low-elevation and intertidal basins in southwestern Norway. Geochemical analyses of the sediment cores from all the studied areas thus far suggests that marine influence has been increasing in recent centuries, possibly due to rates of eustatic sea level rise overtaking residual glacioisostatic adjustment (ca. 1-2 mm/yr) from the Last Glacial Maximum. Anecdotal evidence from local residents of Egersund, with family histories and records of past storm levels going back to the 1800s, confirm this. Discrete storm layers consisting of shell fragments in one salt marsh at the back of a sheltered intertidal basin, however, may be overprinting any subtle trends in recent RSL rise. Full results of multi-proxy analyses of 8 cores from four salt marshes and protected, intertidal basins with bedrock sills will be presented from the southwestern corner of Norway.

How to cite: Holthuis, M., Nixon, F. C., Kylander, M., van der Bilt, W., Martin, J., and Lakeman, T.: Late Holocene sea-level change and storms in southwestern Norway based on new data from intertidal basins and salt marshes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12297, 2022.

EGU22-12629 | Presentations | CL0 | Highlight

Extending paleo-tsunami records south of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami patch, Sumatra, Indonesia: 2022 update 

Jedrzej Majewski, Geoffrey Richards, Patrick Daly, Adam Switzer, Nazli Ismail, Tomi Afrizal, Margaret Christie, and Benjamin Horton

Our team has previously built a ~7500 year tsunami history for the northern patch of the Sunda Megathrust. However, the paleo-tsunami history south of Aceh province and the 2004 rupture patch remains poorly understood. We conducted geological investigation to better define the boundaries of rupture patches along the Megathrust.

 

We utilized satellite imagery to pinpoint potential sites likely to archive evidence of paleo tsunami inundations and co-seismic land-level change. Due to the continuing Covid-19 pandemic and restrictions, our researchers from Singapore, and USA could not travel to Indonesia. However, because of the longstanding close collaboration between the Earth Observatory of Singapore and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia, the project continued to progress. The Syiah Kuala University team investigated nearly 20 sites between Banda Aceh in the northern patch of the of Sumatra Megathrust and Padang in the south. Several sites preserved probable paleo-tsunami sediments. The paleo-tsunami sediments were identified from anomalous layers of sand in low energy environments where they would not normally occur, such as mangroves, coastal lowlands, and/or swales.

 
Here we present results of litho-, bio- and chronostratigraphical analysis from Susoh as well as preliminary information from sites along the coastline between Meulaboh and Padang. From Susoh we described stratigraphy from a series of cores to a depth of 4.75 m. The top 2.5 meters was dominated by muds typical of estuarine or tidal flat settings, but it is interrupted by three pulses of sandy muds. At 2.55 m we encountered a 0.2 m thick layer of course sand, underlain by a 0.5 m thick mangrove peat with a gradual transition into organic sandy muds and sands. Pollen analysis from the fine-grained organic layers indicate they were formed in a mangrove environment. Radiocarbon dating of the organic macrofossils from the mangrove peat indicate the tsunami event occurred post 1850 cal. yrs BP. Our research continues to improve our understanding of the Sumatran Megathrust.

How to cite: Majewski, J., Richards, G., Daly, P., Switzer, A., Ismail, N., Afrizal, T., Christie, M., and Horton, B.: Extending paleo-tsunami records south of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami patch, Sumatra, Indonesia: 2022 update, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12629, 2022.

CL1.1 – Deep Time

EGU22-1701 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Variable Early Eocene continental hydroclimate in Central Europe? 

Clemens Schmitt, Iuliana Vasiliev, Alfredo Martínez-García, and Andreas Mulch

Predicted future climate scenarios share similar characteristics with the Eocene ‘greenhouse’ period. However, short-term Early Eocene terrestrial climate variability is still poorly constrained mainly due to the rarity of adequately resolved climate archives. This lack of information restricts not only the evaluation of past continental climate conditions but additionally limits regional climate modelling efforts but also the validation of model outputs. Here, we present highly-resolved biomarker-based (bacterial membrane lipid and leaf wax) paleoclimate data from the UNESCO World Heritage Site Messel Fossil Pit (Germany) that cover an interval of ca. 640 ka. The drilled Messel paleolake succession, characterized by finely laminated and frequently varved black pelites (referred to as ‘oil shale’) represent a regional climate and environmental archive from the latest Early to Middle Eocene (~48.0-47.4 Ma) of western Central Europe. Downcore mean annual air temperature (MAAT) reconstructions inferred from bacterial-derived branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) show a long-term cooling trend and range from 14 to 22°C. High-resolution sampling within the basal and middle core interval reveal several short-term negative temperature excursions of 4-5°C, respectively. Moreover, we measured compound-specific δ2H and δ13C of excellently preserved odd carbon numbered mid- and long-chain leaf wax n-alkanes in order to estimate past regional hydroclimatic conditions. δ2H values of terrestrial long- and aquatic mid-chain n-alkanes show exceptional variations of up to 45‰ and 60‰, respectively. In contrast, δ13C values of long-chain n-alkanes are within 5‰ (-28‰ to -33‰) while mid-chain δ13C values vary by 11‰, ranging between -26‰ and -37‰. Our results indicate that the Early to Middle Eocene temperature history of central western Europe, particularly on short geological timescales was much more variable than previously assumed. We recognize two abrupt shifts in MAAT that coincide with lower δ2H values and therefore may point to either wetter climate conditions or changed atmospheric moisture trajectories. We emphasize that the long-term decline in estimated MAAT towards the top of the Messel section has to our best knowledge not been quantified from any time-equivalent terrestrial archive in Central Europe, but resembles Early Eocene cooling patterns well-documented from the global oceans.

How to cite: Schmitt, C., Vasiliev, I., Martínez-García, A., and Mulch, A.: Variable Early Eocene continental hydroclimate in Central Europe?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1701, 2022.

EGU22-2042 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Mediterranean heat injection to the North Atlantic delayed the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations 

André Bahr, Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, Christian Stepanek, Maria Carolina Amorim Catunda, Cyrus Karas, Martin Ziegler, Ángela García-Gallardo, and Patrick Grunert

The intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciations at the end of the Pliocene epoch represents one of the most substantial climatic shifts during Cenozoic. Paradoxically, sea surface temperatures in the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean increased between 2.9–2.7 Ma, against a background of global cooling and declining atmospheric pCO2. To investigate the origin of this high latitude warming, we obtained sedimentary geochemical proxy data from the Gulf of Cadiz to reconstruct the variability of Mediterranean Outflow Water, an important heat source to the North Atlantic. In fact, we find evidence for enhanced production of Mediterranean Outflow Water during the mid-Pliocene to late Pliocene. We argue that the injection of this warm water on intermediate levels drove a sub-surface heat channel into the high-latitude North Atlantic where it warmed the sea surface. We further used Earth System Models to numerically constrain the impact of enhanced Mediterranean Outflow Water production on the northward heat transport within the North Atlantic. In accord with the proxy evidence, the numerical model results show the formation of a sub-surface channel that funneled heat from the subtropics into the high latitude North Atlantic. We further suggest that warming of the North Atlantic realm by this mechanism might have substantially delayed ice sheet growth at the end of the Pliocene.

How to cite: Bahr, A., Kaboth-Bahr, S., Stepanek, C., Amorim Catunda, M. C., Karas, C., Ziegler, M., García-Gallardo, Á., and Grunert, P.: Mediterranean heat injection to the North Atlantic delayed the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2042, 2022.

EGU22-2399 | Presentations | CL1.1.1 | Highlight

Reconciling South Asian Monsoon Rainfall and Wind Histories 

Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Yannick Donnadieu, Clara Bolton, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Alexis Licht, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie Laugié, Delphine Tardif, and Guillaume Dupont-Nivet

Cenozoic evolution of South Asian Monsoon and mechanisms driving changes recorded in the geological record remain highly debated. An intensification of monsoonal rainfall recorded in sediment archives from the earliest Miocene (23-20 million years ago, Ma) is generally attributed to Himalayan uplift. However, Indian Ocean paleorecords place the onset of strong monsoons around 13 Ma, linked to strengthening of the Somali Jet that forces Arabian Sea upwelling.  In this contribution we reconcile these divergent records using Ocean-Atmosphere and ocean biogeochemistry models. Our results show that factors forcing monsoon circulation versus rainfall are decoupled and diachronous : Asian topography predominantly controlled early Miocene rainfall patterns, with limited impact on ocean-atmosphere circulation. Yet the uplift of East African and Middle Eastern topography played a pivotal role in the establishment of modern Somali Jet structure above the western Indian Ocean, while strong upwelling initiate in response to the emergence of the Arabian Peninsula. Our results emphasize a polygenetic history of the South Asian Monsoon with multiple paleogeographic controls: although elevated rainfall seasonality was likely a persistent feature since the India-Asia collision in the Paleogene, the modern-like monsoonal atmospheric circulation was only reached recently, in the late Neogene.

How to cite: Sarr, A.-C., Donnadieu, Y., Bolton, C., Ladant, J.-B., Licht, A., Fluteau, F., Laugié, M., Tardif, D., and Dupont-Nivet, G.: Reconciling South Asian Monsoon Rainfall and Wind Histories, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2399, 2022.

EGU22-2957 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter in a warm past and a future climate 

Arthur Oldeman, Michiel Baatsen, Anna von der Heydt, Aarnout van Delden, and Henk Dijkstra

The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric climate variability in the middle and high Northern latitudes in the present-day climate. Its most prominent regional expression is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a mode of variability that is well-known and has a strong influence on North Atlantic weather patterns. According to the IPCC AR6 WGI report, the current generation of climate models are ‘skillful’ in simulating the spatial features and variance of the historical and present-day NAM/NAO. However, what kind of NAM or NAO patterns can we expect in a warm future climate?

To answer this question, we have performed equilibrium climate simulations of a warm ‘future’ as well as a warm past climate. Specifically, we have simulated the mid-Pliocene climate, a warm (~400 ppm CO2) geological period approximately 3Ma ago, using a global coupled climate model (CESM1.0.5). Our simulations compare well to higher latitude sea-surface temperature reconstructions. We have performed sensitivity studies using a pre-industrial and a mid-Pliocene geography, as well as two levels of radiative forcing, as a part of intercomparison project PlioMIP2. But the question remains, to what extent can we treat the mid-Pliocene as an ‘analog’ for a future warm climate?

Looking at Northern hemisphere winter (DJF) sea-level pressure data, we find that the annular ‘belts of action’ move poleward partially due to increase in CO2, but mainly due to the mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. Over the North Pacific Ocean, sea-level pressure variability slightly increases with CO2, but greatly reduces due to the mid-Pliocene geography. The NAM seems to behave more ‘annular’ and less ‘sectoral’ or regional due to the mid-Pliocene climate boundary conditions. We will focus on the mechanisms that explain the differences between the past and future simulations.

How to cite: Oldeman, A., Baatsen, M., von der Heydt, A., van Delden, A., and Dijkstra, H.: Atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter in a warm past and a future climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2957, 2022.

EGU22-3321 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Modeling the evolution of central Asian drylands during the Cenozoic 

Ran Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Dabang Jiang, Gilles Ramstein, Guillaume Dupont-Nivet, and Xiangyu Li

The evolution of central Asian drylands during the Cenozoic is a hot topic in paleoclimate research, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here, we investigate this topic with climate modeling based on six key geological periods. Our results indicate that central Asian drylands have existed since the early Eocene, after which they move northward and become narrower. Although changed land–sea distribution and decreased atmospheric CO2 concentration promote the aridification of drylands, they only slightly affect the latitudinal distribution of drylands. By comparison, the growth of Asian high-topography areas, especially the Tibetan Plateau (TP), makes central Asian drylands move northward, concentrate in narrow latitudinal bands, and increase in intensity. Good model-data qualitative agreement is obtained for stepwise aridification in midlatitude inland Asia north of ~40°N, and the uplifted main and northern TP by the early Miocene likely forced drylands to change in this region.

How to cite: Zhang, R., Zhang, Z., Jiang, D., Ramstein, G., Dupont-Nivet, G., and Li, X.: Modeling the evolution of central Asian drylands during the Cenozoic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3321, 2022.

EGU22-4335 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Climate conditions of coals and evaporates in the Earth history 

Xiujuan Bao and Yongyun Hu

Coals and evaporates are the most commonly used paleoclimate indicators, regarded as representatives of humid and arid climate conditions in the geological record, respectively. However, the quantitative and systematic climate significance of coals and evaporates in the Earth history still unknown. Here, we perform a series of simulations to simulate global climate conditions of Phanerozoic, using an Earth system model CESM 1.2.2 and reconstructed paleotopographies (Scotese, 2018). Combining with a global-scale complication of coals and evaporate from the present back to Devonian (Boucot et al., 2013), climate variables of annual average surface temperature (AAST), annual average precipitation (AAP) and annual average net precipitation (AANP) of the area where coals and evaporates formed are extracted for analysing quantitative climate conditions of coals and evaporates. The preliminary results show that (1) AAST of evaporate areas vary with global mean temperature, while the variation of coals areas’ AAST reflect a stage change,which are consistent with the stage evolution of land plant and lignin-degrading fungi; (2) AAP and AANP of coals and evaporates areas are relatively stable through the Earth history. Coals areas have general more AAP and AANP than evaporates in 25%-75% quantiles but have similar range with evaporites areas in 5%-95% quantiles.

 

Key words: coals, evaporates, plant evolution, deep-time climate, numerical simulation

References

Scotese C R, 2018. PALEOMAP PaleoAtlas Rasters[J].

Boucot A J, Chen X, Scotese C R, 2013. Lithology Data Tables[J].

How to cite: Bao, X. and Hu, Y.: Climate conditions of coals and evaporates in the Earth history, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4335, 2022.

EGU22-4906 | Presentations | CL1.1.1 | Highlight

Evolution of Dust and Its Climatic Impact during Earth’s History 

Yonggang Liu, Qifan Lin, Ming Zhang, Peng Liu, Jian Zhang, and Zhengyu Liu

Dust, as one of the most common types of atmospheric aerosol, affects climate in many different ways. Atmospheric dust scatters and absorbs sunlight and reduces solar radiation received at the surface; it absorbs and emits longwave radiation, having a greenhouse effect; it has a complex indirect effect on climate by serving as cloud nuclei; when deposited on snow or ice, it reduces the surface albedo and warms the surface. Despite its importance in the climate system, how the dust emission and atmospheric dust loading varied during the Earth history is unclear. Here I will give a summary of the atmospheric dust loading as well as its climatic impact for a few typical periods of the Earth. All the results are from numerical simulations and are still premature due to uncertainties in vegetation cover and soil erodibility, and biases and inability of the climate model used.

In present day, the atmospheric dust loading is slightly more than 20 Tg, and has a small impact on the global climate. Such dust loading was diminished during the mid-Holocene (~6 thousand years ago; 6 ka) and the reduced dust induced a very slight global warming (~0.1 °C) but a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere by weakening the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation (AMOC). During the cold last glacial maximum (~21 ka), the atmospheric dust loading was ~2-3 times that of present day. Had not been this dust, the LGM climate would have been colder by ~2 °C and AMOC weaker by ~30%. Clearly, the snow-darkening effect of dust was dominative during this cold time period. For earlier periods with different continental configurations, the atmospheric dust loading also varied significantly. For 80 million years ago (Ma), the continents were dispersive and the total area of the continents was small, the atmospheric dust loading was only ~1.4 Tg. For 240 Ma, the continents clustered into a supercontinent and centered around the equator, the atmospheric dust loading ~21 Tg. For a continental configuration (130 Ma) that had an area in between 80 Ma and 240 Ma, the atmospheric dust loading was ~6.1 Tg. The dust had a cooling effect of <1 °C in all these three periods. For time periods earlier than 400 Ma when land vegetation had not evolved yet, the atmospheric dust loading could have been ~10 times of present day and cooled the climate by ~10 °C. However, such cooling effect disappeared and became a warming effect when the climate was entering a snowball Earth state, due to stronger and stronger snow-darkening effect.

Overall, there was more dust during a cold time period due to stronger winds, weaker hydrological cycle and more dust sources, and the dust had a warming effect to the climate. During the warm time periods, dust tended to have a cooling effect because there was too little snow and ice for the snow darkening by dust to be effective. There was also more dust during periods when the area of continents was larger and more clustered, due to drier land surface.

How to cite: Liu, Y., Lin, Q., Zhang, M., Liu, P., Zhang, J., and Liu, Z.: Evolution of Dust and Its Climatic Impact during Earth’s History, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4906, 2022.

EGU22-5167 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Snowball Earth initiation and the thermodynamics of sea ice 

Johannes Hörner, Aiko Voigt, and Christoph Braun

Snowball Earth is a hypothesized state in the deep past of Earth in which the ocean was completely or nearly completely covered by sea ice, resulting from a runaway ice-albedo feedback. Here, we address how the treatment of sea-ice thermodynamics affects the initiation of a Snowball Earth in the global climate model ICON-A run in an idealized slab-ocean aquaplanet setup. Specifically, we study the impact of vertical resolution and brine pockets of ice by comparing the 3-layer Winton and a 0-layer Semtner scheme, and we investigate the impact of limiting ice thickness to 5m.

The internal heat storage of ice is increased by higher vertical resolution and brine pockets, which weakens surface melting and increases global albedo by allowing snow and ice to persist longer into the summer season. The internal heat storage weakens the melt-ratchet effect, as is confirmed with offline simulations with the two ice schemes. The result is a substantially easier Snowball Earth initiation and an increase in the critical CO2 for Snowball initiation by 50%. Limiting ice thickness impedes Snowball initiation as the removal of excess ice leads to an artificial heat source. Yet, the impact is minor and critical is decreased by 5% only.

The results show that while the sea-ice thickness limit plays only a minor role, the internal heat storage of ice represents an important factor for Snowball initiation and needs to be taken into account when modeling Snowball Earth initiation.

How to cite: Hörner, J., Voigt, A., and Braun, C.: Snowball Earth initiation and the thermodynamics of sea ice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5167, 2022.

EGU22-5586 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Mid-Pliocene North American Monsoon in Weather Resolving Coupled Simulations 

Mary Grace Albright, Ran Feng, Jiang Zhu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Hui Li, and Tripti Bhattacharya

The North American Southwest (SW NA) has recently experienced periods of extreme drought, largely due to an increased intensity in evaporation. Yet, there remains large uncertainty in the predicted future changes of precipitation over this region. As a result, the future of SW NA hydroclimate remains uncertain.  The North American Monsoon (NAM) is an atmospheric circulation feature of SW NA hydroclimate that is generated by interactions between topography and moisture surge from the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Mexico.  Previous research has shown a weakened NAM in response to elevated levels of atmospheric CO2.  However, when analyzing proxy paleoclimate reconstructions during the Pliocene, various records suggest wetter conditions during that time.  We use the mid-Pliocene (3.3 – 3.0 Millions of years ago) as an analog for ongoing climate change because this interval featured topography, geography, and biome assemblages similar to today, but a warmer global mean temperature by 2 - 4 °C compared to pre-industrial, and a sustained 400 ppm CO2.  Here we are testing whether a high resolution simulation (25 km) can better capture the NAM and provide different sensitivity to boundary conditions compared to low resolution (100 km) simulations, using the same Community Earth System Model.  Increased resolution has been shown to improve the representation of features within the NAM for simulations of the present.   Our pre-industrial simulations display a more extensive monsoon region with high spatial resolution, which indicates a dependency of simulated NAM on resolving topographic features such as the Rockies, Basin and Range, and Gulf of California, all of which can only be captured at high spatial resolutions.  Simulations of the mid-Pliocene displayed weakened NAM precipitation along the west coast of the southwestern North America at a low resolution when compared to the pre-industrial run.  Yet, this weakening signal is limited to the Pacific side of the orographic slopes in the high resolution simulation, with the rest of the monsoon region featuring increased precipitation.  Ongoing work will explore the sources for this resolution dependency, and will quantify contributions of mesoscale systems, such as tropical and extratropical cyclones, to precipitation in the monsoon region.

How to cite: Albright, M. G., Feng, R., Zhu, J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Li, H., and Bhattacharya, T.: Mid-Pliocene North American Monsoon in Weather Resolving Coupled Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5586, 2022.

EGU22-5621 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Spatial heterogeneity of the Late Miocene Biogenic Bloom 

Quentin Pillot, Baptiste Suchéras-Marx, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Clara Bolton, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, and Yannick Donnadieu

The late Miocene and early Pliocene is marked by a major
oceanographic and geological event called the Late Miocene Biogenic
Bloom (LMBB). This event is characterized by high accumulation rates of
opals from diatoms and high calcite accumulation rates from calcareous
nannofossils and planktic foraminifera. The LMBB extends over several
million years and is present in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Two
hypotheses have emerged from the literature to explain this event: a
global increase in the supply of nutrients to ocean basins through chemical
alteration of the continents and/or a major redistribution of nutrients in the
oceans. The objective of this study is to provide a more comprehensive
look at the temporal and geographical aspects of the LMBB. We have
compiled ocean drilling data (ODP-IODP) covering the late Miocene and
early Pliocene. This compilation contains sedimentation rates as well as
CaCO3, opal and terrigenous accumulation rates. After a careful screening
of the database, checking that all data are on the same time scale, we first
work on global trends of sedimentation and biogenic production before
going into more details. For instance, we show that the magnitude of the
Biogenic Bloom strongly varied between the three oceanic basins.
Normalization to a post-LMBB state allows comparison of rates of increase
in CaCO3 accumulation in different geographical areas (grouping several
sites). A very strong LMBB signature is present in oceanic area bordering
the western side of Australia. In the Atlantic Ocean, it is mainly present
near the equator and over South Africa. The LMBB signature is less
pronounced in the Indian Ocean but remains trackable near the northern
coasts of the basin. Moreover, it is also heterogeneous in terms of the
mineralogy produced and deposited in the deep ocean between regions.
For example, in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the LMBB signature is
present in the silica accumulation term but not in carbonates accumulation
one. Outputs from coupled ocean/atmosphere models (IPSL-CM5A2) using
late Miocene paleogeography and integrating a marine biogeochemistry
module (PISCES) have been gathered and will be discussed in regard to
our database.

How to cite: Pillot, Q., Suchéras-Marx, B., Sarr, A.-C., Bolton, C., Ladant, J.-B., and Donnadieu, Y.: Spatial heterogeneity of the Late Miocene Biogenic Bloom, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5621, 2022.

EGU22-6006 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Drivers and consequences of a stronger mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 

Julia Weiffenbach, Michiel Baatsen, and Anna von der Heydt

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.3 – 3 Ma) is the most recent geological period with a CO2 concentration similar to the present day (~400 ppm). The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) focuses on the KM5c time slice (3.205 Ma), giving insight into the climate dynamics of this period. Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate amplified warming over the North Atlantic in the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Zhang et al. (2021) reported a stronger mPWP AMOC in all the PlioMIP2 simulations but found no consistent relation to either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs. We therefore look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in the mPWP compared to pre-industrial simulations.

Within the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show strongly reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. The resulting increase in sea surface salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea stimulates deepwater formation in these areas. The stronger AMOC is therefore primarily a response to the closure of the Arctic gateways. We also look at the different components of the Atlantic OHT, associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mPWP, it is partly compensated by a reduced gyre component. Our results point towards a complex interplay between atmospheric and oceanic processes and indicate that considering these components separately allows for a better understanding of the climatic response to the AMOC strength.

How to cite: Weiffenbach, J., Baatsen, M., and von der Heydt, A.: Drivers and consequences of a stronger mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6006, 2022.

EGU22-6721 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

The Impact of Angiosperms Physiological Evolution on Earth Systems 

Jiaqi Guo, Yongyun Hu, and Yonggang Liu

The physiological evolution of vegetation affects the interaction between vegetation and climate. Angiosperms have higher leaf vein density than all other plants throughout evolutionary history, contributing to higher transpiration capacities. However, the climatic response to changes in physiological functions of angiosperms has remained to be determined. Here, Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2.2 and BIOME4 vegetation model are applied to simulate the world without angiosperms by reducing the maximum carboxylation rate (Vmax) to 1/4 (Boyce et al, 2009), in conditions of both fixed and non-fixed vegetation distribution. First, we maintain the pre-industrial vegetation distribution, the results illustrate that the world without angiosperms would have less productivity, higher global mean temperature, consisting with the results of Boyce and Lee (Boyce and Lee, 2010). In addition, the warmer southern hemisphere and colder northern hemisphere are identified, which are caused by the decrease of the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Second, we consider changes of vegetation structure, the results show that temperature and precipitation would vary significantly locally, and the area of tropical forest would decline sharply in the world without angiosperms, which may affect biodiversity. The evolution of physiological functions of angiosperms influences climate and provides potential competitive advantages for angiosperms to dominate modern vegetation.

How to cite: Guo, J., Hu, Y., and Liu, Y.: The Impact of Angiosperms Physiological Evolution on Earth Systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6721, 2022.

EGU22-6804 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Dynamics and variability of the Late Permian climate-carbon state in an Earth System Model 

Daniel Burt, Tatiana Ilyina, and Thomas Kleinen

The Late Permian climate is the background state for the climate perturbations which lead to the
Permian-Triassic Boundary (~252 Ma). The Permian-Triassic Boundary mass extinction is well established as
the largest of Earth’s mass extinctions with an estimated 90% loss of species. Climate perturbations linked to
carbon emissions from Siberian Trap volcanism are attributed as the drivers of the mass extinction through
extreme temperature increases and changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry. Fully-coupled Earth
System Models are required to investigate the sensitivities and feedbacks of the system to these widespread
climate perturbations. The Late Permian climate is simulated with a modified version of the Max Planck
Earth System Model v1.2 similar to that used in the 6th -phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Geochemical and palaeobiological proxy data are used to constrain the boundary conditions of the modelled
climate state.
The simulated Late Permian climate state is characterised by a 100 year global mean 2 m surface air
temperature of 19.7°C, rising up to 37.7°C in the low-latitude continental interior. Prevailing 100 year global
mean total precipitation patterns indicate that the continental interior was largely arid from ~50°N to ~50°S and
a rainfall maximum of up to 6.5 mm day-1 is present at the equatorial boundary of the Tethys and Panthalassic
Oceans. Dynamic terrestrial vegetation in the model is dominated by woody single-stemmed evergreens and
soft-stemmed plant functional groups. The 100 year global mean surface ocean of the Late Permian illustrates
a warm-pool across the equatorial boundary between the Tethys and Panthalassic Oceans with a maximum
temperature of 31.7°C decreasing to temperatures as low as -1.9°C near the poles. Surface salinities vary
broadly across the global oceans with 100 year global mean values ranging from 21.9, in well flushed regions
of strong freshwater flux, to 49.2, in low-latitude regions of restricted exchange. Large-scale seasonal mixing
below 60°S in the Panthalassic Ocean dominates the global meridional overturning circulation. These model
data fit within the bounds represented by the available proxy data for the Late Permian. Additionally, I will
present first results of the ocean biogeochemical state in the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model with an
extended Nitrogen-cycle. I will also illustrate the results of our investigation into the influence of the Late
Permian monsoon variability on the terrestrial vegetation and ocean carbon cycles.

How to cite: Burt, D., Ilyina, T., and Kleinen, T.: Dynamics and variability of the Late Permian climate-carbon state in an Earth System Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6804, 2022.

EGU22-6918 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Influence of Dust on Climate during the late Palaeozoic ice age 

Qifan Lin and Yonggang Liu

Dust in the atmosphere affects climate by directly absorbing and scattering solar radiation. In present days, most of dust is emitted from dry regions over North Africa and Arabian Peninsula. It has been shown that it impact on global mean surface temperature, African monsoon, the number of tropical cyclones over the Atlantic Ocean, ENSO variability and the strength of Atlantic meridional ocean circulation (AMOC). The climate of late Paleozoic ice age bears some similarity to late Cenozoic climate. However, late Paleozoic ice age was a period of continental convergence and supercontinents formation. On different continental configurations, the area of dry regions may vary considerably, so that dust emissions and atmospheric dust loading changed accordingly. As  expected, the impact of dust on climate during this period was also very different from that of present days. In this work, we use the fully coupled global climate model CESM1.2.2 to examine the influence of dust on climate during late Palaeozoic ice age. Dust aerosols simulated by bulk aerosol model alter atmospheric radiation through scattering and absorbing both shortwave and longwave radiation. Results show that during late Palaeozoic ice age, sources of dust were mainly distributed on the western continent in the subtropics. The total amount of the atmospheric dust loading was less than that of present days due to the smaller subtropical continental area. Such dust induced a significant cooling of surface temperature at low latitudes by altering radiation. Dust falling on southern hemisphere continents covered by ice and snow caused a rising of surface temperature.

How to cite: Lin, Q. and Liu, Y.: Influence of Dust on Climate during the late Palaeozoic ice age, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6918, 2022.

EGU22-7520 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Meridional temperature gradients during the past 250 million years: Proxies versus Models 

Mengyu Wei, Jun Yang, Yongyun Hu, Yonggang Liu, Xiang Li, Xiujuan Bao, Jiaqi Guo, Jiawenjing Lan, Zhibo Li, Qifan Lin, Kai Man, Zihan yin, and Shuai Yuan

In this study, we investigate the meridional temperature gradients during the past 250 million years. We compare the differences between proxy data of oxygen isotopes and lithologic indicators and globally coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system model simulation results. Two climate models are employed, CESM1.2.2 and HadleyCM3. There are several significant differences between the model results and Scotese’s reconstruction and proxy data: 1) the tropical surface temperatures are usually higher in the model simulations than both Scotese’s reconstruction (Scotese 2016; Scotese et al. 2021) and proxy data (e.g., Huber and Caballero 2012, Song et al. 2019; Zhu et al. 2019), whereas the surface temperatures in high latitudes are usually lower; 2) the meridional temperature gradients in the model simulations are smaller in low latitudes but larger in the middle latitudes than Scotese’s reconstruction. These comparisons are helpful for paleoclimatology understanding and for future paleo-temperature reconstructions.

How to cite: Wei, M., Yang, J., Hu, Y., Liu, Y., Li, X., Bao, X., Guo, J., Lan, J., Li, Z., Lin, Q., Man, K., yin, Z., and Yuan, S.: Meridional temperature gradients during the past 250 million years: Proxies versus Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7520, 2022.

EGU22-7744 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Hafnium-neodymium isotope evidence for enhanced weathering and tectonic-climate interactions during the Late Cretaceous 

Pauline Corentin, Emmanuelle Pucéat, Pierre Pellenard, Michel Guiraud, Justine Blondet, Nicolas Freslon, Germain Bayon, and Thierry Adatte

Over million-year timescale the carbon cycle evolution is driven by mantle CO2 degassing (source) and by continental weathering that drawdowns atmospheric CO2 through silicate weathering reactions (sink). Based on a novel geochemical proxy of chemical weathering intensity (i.e. using measurements of Hf and Nd isotope ratios in clay-size fractions of sediments) and clay mineralogy, we discuss the links between tectonic, continental weathering and climate evolution during the late Cretaceous. That period records the very first step of the last greenhouse to icehouse transition and is concomitant to major uplift phases affecting the African and South-American margins.

Two sites along the South American Atlantic margin (ODP 356 and 1259) were targeted based on their relatively complete record of upper Cretaceous sediments. At Site 356, our results indicate the occurrence of enhanced chemical weathering during the Campanian and Maastrichtian following the uplift of the Southeastern Brazilian margin that promoted the establishment of more hydrolysing conditions.

At Demerara Rise (Site 1259), our data suggest a coupling between physical erosion and chemical weathering, which may be explained in this area by the presence of persistent hydrolysing conditions typical of equatorial climate and reduced tectonic activity. From the Turonian to the early Campanian, i.e. a period of relative tectonic quiescence, our data suggest that climate was likely the main driver controlling the evolution of chemical weathering intensity. By contrast, from the middle Campanian to Maastrichtian, we propose that mountain uplift, although moderate, induced a marked increase in chemical weathering intensity.

Together, this new data acquired at two 2 sites that encountered different regional climatic, geologic and tectonic conditions suggest that chemical weathering markedly intensified during the late Cretaceous and likely acted as a major sink for atmospheric CO2. While the onset of weathering increase at both sites appear to postdate the initiation of global temperature decrease, we suggest here that this process could have participated to accelerating or maintaining colder climate conditions at that time.

 

Key Words: late Cretaceous – paleoclimate – weathering – uplift - clay mineralogy – Hf-Nd isotope

How to cite: Corentin, P., Pucéat, E., Pellenard, P., Guiraud, M., Blondet, J., Freslon, N., Bayon, G., and Adatte, T.: Hafnium-neodymium isotope evidence for enhanced weathering and tectonic-climate interactions during the Late Cretaceous, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7744, 2022.

EGU22-8237 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

The hydrological cycle in the past 540 million years 

Yongyun Hu, Xiang Li, and Zhibo Li

Earth has undergone dramatic temperature fluctuations and the tectonic process of continental breaking up and reassembling in the past 540 million years. How these caused changes in the global hydrological cycle is an interesting question. To study the evolution of the global hydrological cycle since the Cambrian, we carried out 55 equilibrium simulations to simulate climate evolution in the past 540 million years, using CESM1.2.2. It is found that the global mean precipitation is closely correlated with the global mean surface temperature (GMST), especially oceanic precipitation has high correlation with GMST, with a coefficient of 0.92. Land precipitation also has statistically significant correlation with GMST. However, the correlation coefficient is much lower. Further analysis shows that land precipitation is also determined by continental fragmentation, mean latitudes, and total area, and that the semi-arid area is most sensitive to GMST changes.

How to cite: Hu, Y., Li, X., and Li, Z.: The hydrological cycle in the past 540 million years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8237, 2022.

EGU22-10287 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Long-term increase in precipitation intermittency and intensity at Paleogene mid latitudes 

Jacob Slawson and Piret Plink-Bjorklund

Unmitigated scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions produce climates like those of the Early Eocene by 2150 CE, suggesting that we are effectively reversing a more than 50-million-year cooling trend in less than two centuries. Terrestrial records of rivers and floodplains from Paleogene sedimentary basins in the US Western interior and Europe indicate an increase in flash floods and droughts at paleo-mid latitudes, indicating increased precipitation intensity and intermittency. In the Uinta Basin, Utah magnetostratigraphic analyses, absolute age dates, and biostratigraphy allow the reconstruction of changes in hydroclimate from the Early Paleocene, to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and through the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Here we observe that the largest shifts in hydroclimate are not linked to the PETM but rather occur during the warm Late Paleocene and then at the end of the EECO. This is indicated by the river sedimentary record that shows a shift from normal rivers, such as are characteristic at mid-latitudes today, to flood-prone rivers in late Paleocene. The rivers shifted back to normal at the end of the EECO. Coeval changes are observed in floodplain paleosols where the late Paleocene and early Eocene paleosols indicate sustained droughts and intermittent seasonal rains. At the PETM there is no change in the state of hydroclimate, but rather a further intensification of floods and droughts. Comparison to other terrestrial basins at mid-latitudes shows similar patterns. These results show that the most dramatic shifts in hydroclimate were not linked to the largest amplitude of atmospheric drivers at the PETM, but rather suggest a threshold-driven relationship between the atmospheric drivers and hydroclimate. This may suggest that significant changes in hydroclimate are to be expected already before 2150 CE. 

How to cite: Slawson, J. and Plink-Bjorklund, P.: Long-term increase in precipitation intermittency and intensity at Paleogene mid latitudes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10287, 2022.

EGU22-10380 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Partitioning meridional heat transport in Early Eocene Climatic Optimum model simulations 

Fanni Dora Kelemen and Bodo Ahrens

The meridional heat transport is primarily governed by the geometry between the Earth and the Sun and it has been shown in previous studies that it is nearly invariant in different climates. Nevertheless, the processes, which contribute to the whole transport, do not stay invariable, but their changes compensate each other. Thus, the changes in the various transport processes give an insight into the climate system and its changes in different conditions, such as the high CO2 concentrations of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO).

In our work we investigate the meridional heat transport and its elements in climate model simulations from DeepMIP focusing on the EECO. The meridional heat transport is divided into atmospheric and ocean heat transport. The atmospheric heat transport is further divided into moist and dry energy transport and also into transport by the meridional overturning circulation, transient eddies and stationary eddies. Annual and seasonal changes are compared in the preindustrial control simulation, in the 1xCO2 simulation and in simulations with high CO2 concentration values (3xCO2, 4xCO2, 6xCO2). We found that in a warmer climate, where the hydrological cycle is expected to be stronger, the transport of the meridional overturning circulation at the tropics, so the circulation of the Hadley cell, is more intense. Also, at the subtropics the energy transport of monsoon systems and at the mid-latitudes the energy transport of cyclones and anticyclones is different than in the control climate.

 

How to cite: Kelemen, F. D. and Ahrens, B.: Partitioning meridional heat transport in Early Eocene Climatic Optimum model simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10380, 2022.

EGU22-10701 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Climate evolution during the past 250 million years simulated by the Community Earth System Model 

Xiang Li, Jiaqi Guo, Jiawenjing Lan, Qifan Lin, Shuai Yuan, Jun Yang, Yonggang Liu, and Yongyun Hu

Global climates have undergone tremendous fluctuations during the past 250 million years, primarily driven by variations in tectonic dynamics, atmospheric greenhouse gases, and solar irradiance. Paleoclimate modeling has offered a feasible approach to investigating secular climate change for such a long span of time deep in the past. Nevertheless, global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs) simulated by previous studies scarcely depict the trend of past climate change. In this study, using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2 (CESM1.2.2), we present an ensemble of snapshot simulations during the past 250 million years based on the reconstructed GMSTs. An energy balance analysis is carried out to explore and quantitatively describe the causes of temperature change for the past 250 million years. We find that different levels of global mean warming for the past 250 million years compared with the pre-industrial period predominantly results from relative increase in greenhouse gas emissivity (12.2 °C), with the changing paleogeography (5.6 °C) and solar constant (3.0 °C) playing secondary roles. It is highlighted that the individual effect of heat transport convergence varies inconspicuously in spite of considerable changes of paleogeography and mean climate states during this time. The simulations are potentially valuable resources for extensive studies including climate dynamics analysis in geological timescales and paleoclimate-proxy intercomparison.

How to cite: Li, X., Guo, J., Lan, J., Lin, Q., Yuan, S., Yang, J., Liu, Y., and Hu, Y.: Climate evolution during the past 250 million years simulated by the Community Earth System Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10701, 2022.

EGU22-10720 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Eccentricity modulation of weathering and accumulation rates: non-intuitive, empirical relationship suggests links between orbital pacing and pCO2     

Paul Olsen, Sean Kinney, Clara Chang, Morgan Schaller, Jessica Whiteside, and Dennis Kent

The high frequency oscillations between wet and dry conditions plus the warmer temperatures when the Earth comes closest to the sun, might suggest weathering and hence accumulation rates should be highest during times of maximum eccentricity and maximum precessional variability in the tropics. But time series analysis of 20 Myr of continuous cores of tropical, lacustrine Late Triassic-age strata of the Newark Rift Basin (202–222 Ma) surprisingly show that that is not the case because accumulation rates are highest during the times of lowest precessional variance at the modes of the Mars–Earth (g4-g3) orbital cycle, when eccentricity is at a minimum.

            Three different methods of analysis reveal an accumulation pattern at variance with this intuitive model. 1) Tuning the depth-domain depth rank, color, and natural gamma data series to the 405 kyr, Venus–Jupiter (g2-g5) eccentricity metronome reveals oscillations in accumulation rates of ~20m to ~100m/Myr/cycle (within a total range of 70m – 250m/Myr). Spectral analysis reveals these oscillations occur with the same period (~1.8Myr) as the Mars–Earth modulation of precession for that time, with highs in accumulation rate occurring during lows in eccentricity. A weaker signal of the Mars–Earth (s4-s3) inclination cycle is also present at about 1/2 the period of the eccentricity cycle. 2) Application of the eTimeOpt method of sedimentation rate analysis reveals the same pattern and magnitudes of sedimentation rate variations in depth rank and color. 3) Spectral analyses of gamma and XRF elemental data from intervals of low- vs high-precessional variance show that significantly lower accumulation rated occurred during extended times of high- vs low-precessional variation.

            Accumulation rate oscillations in the Newark Rift Basin should be tracking weathering rates to supply the immense volumes of sediment involved in the accumulation rate variations. Such volumes could not be somehow stored in the highlands for hundreds of thousands of years, otherwise potentially shifting weathering and accumulation rates out of phase.

            The implication of these empirical data is that because pCO2 should be drawn down under higher weathering rates, and the phase of eccentricity modulation of precession is global, pCO2 should be oscillating in phase with the Mars–Earth eccentricity cycle. On the short-term, low-pCO2 should characterize times of low-precessional variability, evidently associated with high-accumulation rates, based on these empirical data, and not vice-versa as might be intuitively modeled. In turn, the oscillations in pCO2 would be expected to cause global temperature oscillations at the g4-g3 frequency. These non-intuitive results, suggesting a hitherto unanticipated relationship between orbital pacing of climate and pCO2, can be tested and further explored by continuous XRF elemental scanning of these cores, currently underway, and by collection of more densely sampled soil carbonate and leaf stomatal pCO2 proxy data, from proposed new cores. The mechanisms driving the relationships between these reproducible empirical data are, however, not obvious, but would seem to be related to the precession-scale variability of climate, not just the magnitude of greenhouse gas concentrations or temperatures.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How to cite: Olsen, P., Kinney, S., Chang, C., Schaller, M., Whiteside, J., and Kent, D.: Eccentricity modulation of weathering and accumulation rates: non-intuitive, empirical relationship suggests links between orbital pacing and pCO2    , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10720, 2022.

EGU22-10815 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

South Atlantic deep-sea temperatures across the onset of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum based on clumped isotope thermometry 

Tobias Agterhuis, Martin Ziegler, Bas L. P. Koene, Lea de Vries, Anne Roozendaal, and Lucas J. Lourens

Reconstructing deep ocean temperature is important to infer deep water mass structure and hence ocean circulation patterns in the past. The late Paleocene-early Eocene experienced the warmest climates of the Cenozoic, with highly elevated CO2 levels and no ice sheets on the continents [1,2]. Benthic foraminiferal δ18O records suggest relatively stable deep ocean conditions on long time scales (>100 kyr) in this hothouse [2–4]. However, interpretations from benthic δ18O records are complicated by influences of factors other than temperature, such as the isotope composition of the seawater (δ18Osw), pH, and species-specific physiological effects [5,6]. Carbonate clumped isotope thermometry (Δ47) has the major advantage that it is independent of the isotope composition of the fluid source, and is not measurably affected by other non-thermal influences [7–10]. Early Cenozoic clumped isotope reconstructions from the North Atlantic have revealed surprisingly large deep-sea temperature swings under hothouse conditions [11]. Extreme warming is recorded at the onset of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) [11]. To explore the spatial extent of these deep-sea temperature changes, we reconstructed early Eocene Δ47-based deep-sea temperatures from the South Atlantic Ocean, a location that is considered to capture a global signal [2–4]. We find similar deep-sea temperatures as those from the North Atlantic. Cooler temperatures of ~12 °C stand out in the interval (54–52 Ma) before the peak warmth of the EECO (52–50 Ma) of ~20 °C. This result overthrows the classic view of a gradual early Eocene warming trend based on benthic δ18O records, at least for the deep Atlantic Ocean. Our findings raise new questions on the regions of deep water formation, changes in deep ocean circulation, and the driving mechanisms in the early Cenozoic hothouse.

References
[1] Anagnostou, E. et al. (2016). Nature533(7603), 380-384.
[2] Zachos, J. et al. (2001). Science292(5517), 686-693.
[3] Lauretano, V. et al. (2018). Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology33(10), 1050-1065.
[4] Westerhold, T. et al. (2020). Science369(6509), 1383-1387.
[5] Ravelo, A. C., & Hillaire-Marcel, C. (2007). Developments in marine geology1, 735-764.
[6] Pearson, P. N. (2012). The Paleontological Society Papers18, 1-38.
[7] Ghosh, P. et al. (2006). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta70(6), 1439-1456.
[8] Tripati, A. K. et al. (2015). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta166, 344-371.
[9] Guo, W. (2020). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta268, 230-257.
[10] Meinicke, N. et al. (2020). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta270, 160-183.
[11] Meckler, A. N. et al. (in revision).

How to cite: Agterhuis, T., Ziegler, M., Koene, B. L. P., de Vries, L., Roozendaal, A., and Lourens, L. J.: South Atlantic deep-sea temperatures across the onset of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum based on clumped isotope thermometry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10815, 2022.

EGU22-11222 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

South Atlantic deep-sea temperature evolution across the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition from clumped isotope thermometry 

Elena Domínguez Valdés, Ilja Kocken, Tobias Agterhuis, Inigo Müller, Noa Bode, Dirk Kroon, Lucas Lourens, and Martin Ziegler

The reconstruction of deep-ocean temperatures is key in the study of the different climate states in the geological past. Reconstructions covering the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition shed light on the global climatic change that followed the mid-Pliocene warm period and culminated in full glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere.

Global δ18O records measured on seafloor dwelling foraminifera constitute the backbone of our understanding of the climatic trends and transitions of the last 65 million years [1,2]. These records suggest that the glacial intensification over the last 2.8 Ma experienced the onset of Quaternary-style ice age cycles and the progression towards a more deterministic climate system increasingly sensitive to orbital forcings. Deep-sea temperature variability across this time is thought to have stayed in a 4ºC range with near-freezing temperatures occurring at every glacial maximum, especially after the Mid-Pleistocene transition [2,3]. However, temperature signals based on carbonate δ18O data are built upon uncertain assumptions of non-thermal factors such as those regarding the isotopic composition of the ancient seawater.

Carbonate clumped thermometry (𝛥47) is based on thermodynamic principles that determine the ordering of isotopes within the carbonate crystal lattice [4]. It is independent of the fluid composition. 𝛥47 thermometry has recently been used to anchor Mg/Ca records of the Miocene while revealing a comparatively warm deep ocean [5].

Here we present 𝛥47-based deep-sea temperature constraints across the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition obtained from benthic foraminifera of ODP Site 1264 in the South Atlantic Ocean. In combination with benthic δ18O analyses, we furthermore interpret our measurements into global ice volume and ocean circulation changes in the Atlantic Basin across the major onset of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation.

[1] Zachos, J., et al. (2001), Science 292, 686-693.

[2] Westerhold, T., et al. (2020), Science, 369, 1383–1387,

[3] Elderfield, H., et al. (2012) Science, 337(6095), 704-709.

[4] Eiler, J.M. (2007), Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 262, 309-327.

[5] Modestou, S. E., et al. (2020) Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 35, e2020PA003927.

How to cite: Domínguez Valdés, E., Kocken, I., Agterhuis, T., Müller, I., Bode, N., Kroon, D., Lourens, L., and Ziegler, M.: South Atlantic deep-sea temperature evolution across the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition from clumped isotope thermometry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11222, 2022.

EGU22-11663 | Presentations | CL1.1.1

Modeling the Impact of Paleogeography on Cretaceous Ocean Deoxygenation 

Yannick Donnadieu, Nina Papadomanolaki, Marie Laugie, Anta Sarr, and Jean-Baptiste Ladant

Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) were geologically short-lived events of widespread ocean deoxygenation and marine organic carbon burial and occurred mostly during the Cretaceous period. The development of OAEs is largely attributed to the impact of massive volcanism on climate and marine biogeochemistry; however, the lack of similar events during other carbon-cycle perturbations suggests additional mechanisms. We use the IPSL-CM5A2 Earth System Model to assess the role of changing paleogeography in priming the Cretaceous Ocean for large-scale decrease in intermediate and deep oxygen concentrations. We focus on three time-slices that present differences in potential gateway (e.g. the Central American Seaway) depth and basin configuration (e.g. the North Atlantic): the Aptian age (~120 Ma), the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary (~94 Ma) and the Maastrichtian age (~70 Ma). This set of simulations illustrates the impact of paleogeography on global circulation and its consequences for intermediate and deep water oxygenation. We also show results for two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations (2x and 4x pre-industrial) to study the additional influence of differing climatic states on oxygenation and primary productivity, and their importance relative to ocean dynamics.

How to cite: Donnadieu, Y., Papadomanolaki, N., Laugie, M., Sarr, A., and Ladant, J.-B.: Modeling the Impact of Paleogeography on Cretaceous Ocean Deoxygenation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11663, 2022.

EGU22-1312 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

The significance of Atlantic Water routing in the Nordic Seas during the present interglacial 

Maciej M. Telesiński, Magdalena Łącka, Agnieszka Kujawa, and Marek Zajączkowski

The Nordic Seas are a key region for global ocean circulation, crucial in water mass exchange between the North Atlantic and the Arctic oceans, and deepwater formation. The advection of Atlantic Water (AW) to the Nordic Seas is decisive for the oceanography and climate of the region and beyond. Here, we present a set of sedimentary records, including two new cores from the western Nordic Seas to reconstruct the history of AW routing in the Nordic Seas over the Holocene. Our results show that the early Holocene (11.7 - 8 ka BP) thermal maximum, caused by an “overshoot” of overturning circulation and high insolation, was limited to the eastern Nordic Seas, while the western part remained cold due to the meltwater blocking the spreading of AW. After 8 ka BP, the retreat of the freshwater lid allowed AW to reach the central Greenland Sea, where deep convection developed. The weakening of the overturning circulation during the 8.2 ka BP event could have played an important role in this circulation shift. After 5 ka BP, the increase in sea-ice export from the Arctic strengthened deep convection, which intensified the westward AW flow. A disruption of convectional activity around 2.7 ka BP, triggered by a minimum in solar activity, caused cooling and expansion of sea ice in the Nordic Seas and might have contributed to a global climatic deterioration. The overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas did not recover to its previous state until the present. We demonstrate that the rate of AW advection into the Nordic Seas alone is not enough to understand the oceanographic evolution of this area and its influence on regional or even global ocean and climate changes. The shifts in AW routing within the Nordic Seas and the rate of deep convection are also important.

How to cite: Telesiński, M. M., Łącka, M., Kujawa, A., and Zajączkowski, M.: The significance of Atlantic Water routing in the Nordic Seas during the present interglacial, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1312, 2022.

EGU22-2443 | Presentations | CL1.1.3 | Highlight

All interglacials are different, but some are more different than others 

Chronis Tzedakis, David Hodell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, and Eric Wolff

Examination of the palaeoclimate record of the last 800 kyr has revealed a large diversity among interglacials in terms of their duration, structure and intensity.  Interglacials may be classified as either short (mean duration 13 kyr) or long (mean duration 28 kyr).  The phasing of precession and obliquity appears to influence the persistence of interglacial conditions over one or two insolation peaks: the longest interglacials are characterized by the obliquity peak lagging the first precession minimum by 10±2 kyr and leading the second precession minimum by a similar amount; thus the first boreal summer insolation minimum occurs at the time of maximum obliquity, which overrides the increase in precession and prevents glacial inception associated with a decline in summer insolation.  The phasing of precession and obliquity also determines the structure of an interglacial, leading to two main categories: (1) shorter interglacials characterized by rapid deglaciation and an early temperature optimum, usually followed by a decline; and (2) longer interglacials characterized by protracted deglaciation and the persistence of interglacial values over two insolation peaks, with the interglacial peak occurring in the second insolation maximum.  With respect to intensity, a broad feature is that interglacials before the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE; 430 ka) appear weaker (cooler, higher δ18Obenthic, atmospheric CO2 lower than pre-industrial concentrations).  The strongest interglacials occurred after the MBE, although MIS7e and MIS7c-a are closer in intensity to pre-MBE interglacials.  Of particular interest is MIS 11c, one of the most unusual Quaternary interglacials.  Its features include: (i) a high sea-level highstand attained under modest insolation forcing; (ii) a long duration extending over two insolation peaks; (iii) persistence of relatively stable atmospheric CO2 concentrations, remaining in the range 270-282 ppm for a 24 kyr period; and (iv) a decoupling between high CO2 and high sea level in the early part of the interglacial that is unique in the last 800 kyr.  Although some of these features are also encountered in other interglacials, their combination with strong interglacial intensity is unique to MIS 11c and appears to be a function of the high CO2concentrations from the beginning of the interglacial.

How to cite: Tzedakis, C., Hodell, D., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., and Wolff, E.: All interglacials are different, but some are more different than others, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2443, 2022.

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5, between about 130 and 70 ka BP, is a relatively long warm period characterized by climate oscillations consisting of three interstadials and two stadials. In this study, two sets of snapshot simulations by a step of 2 ka covering the whole MIS-5 period are performed with the model HadCM3 to investigate the relative impacts of insolation, CO2 and Northern Hemisphere ice sheets on the internal variations within MIS-5 and spatial variations of the East Asian climate, including the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity. The first set of experiments are forced by varying insolation and GHGs (OrbGHG) and the second ones are forced by varying insolation, GHGs and ice sheets (OrbGHGIce). Results show that a similar trend with precession can be found in the simulated summer precipitation, temperature and EASM index in both OrbGHG and OrbGHGIce, indicating the dominant role of precession on the EASM. Within the range of CO2 variability during MIS-5, the change of CO2 causes similar degree of warming effect, but much lower degree of humidifying effect compared to insolation. Insolation and CO2 change the precipitation through different dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Our results also show that the influence of ice sheets on temperature and precipitation is less important than the effect of insolation and it varies from regions and in time. The effect of ice sheets depends on background insolation and also the location, height and area of ice sheets. The simulated spatial-temporal variations of the EASM climate are compared with proxy records and the mechanisms involved are investigated. 

How to cite: Lyu, A. and Yin, Q.: The spatial-temporal patterns of East Asian climate in response to insolation, CO2 and ice sheets during MIS-5, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2635, 2022.

EGU22-3033 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

Diverse models, diverse interglacial results? Sea ice physics versus model forcing 

Louise Sime, Rachel Diamond, David Schroeder, Maria Vittoria Guarino, and Rahul Sivankutty

Different IPCC-CMIP6 climate models give diverse results when run under common interglacial forcing. The mid-Holocene and the Last Interglacial are the two time periods from which we have the most results. The diversity is particularly true for the Arctic, where sea ice physics plays a key role. Whilst scientists have known for more than twenty years that summer temperatures in the Arctic during the Last Interglacial – the warm period around 127,000-128,000 years ago - were around 4°C above those of today (from lake, peat, and marine core data), the cause of this warmth puzzled scientists until 2020. Until 2020, it was thought this Last Interglacial warmth may have been driven by Arctic vegetation changes.  We present an analysis of a variety of CMIP6 model simulations run during the Last Interglacial.  Only one model simulates a fully sea ice-free Arctic during the summer –it includes an advanced representation of melt ponds in the sea ice model. Melt ponds are shallow pools of water which form on the surface of Arctic sea ice. We find that the inclusion of melt ponds within models is likely crucial for understanding Last Interglacial sea ice loss and Arctic warmth, and touch on the relationship between Arctic sea ice changes in warm climate and on high equilibrium sensitivity CMIP6 models. Alongside the impact of different physics in the models, we also consider forcing aspects including the impact of the meltwater from deglaciation and top-of-the-atmosphere radiation (orbital).

How to cite: Sime, L., Diamond, R., Schroeder, D., Guarino, M. V., and Sivankutty, R.: Diverse models, diverse interglacial results? Sea ice physics versus model forcing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3033, 2022.

EGU22-3087 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

Comparison of Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice between the last nine interglacials and the future 

Zhipeng Wu, Qiuzhen Yin, Zhengtang Guo, and André Berger

Understanding the sea ice variability and the mechanisms involved during warm periods of the Earth is essential for a better understanding of the sea ice changes at the present and in the future. Based on simulations with the model LOVECLIM, this study investigates the sea ice variations during the last nine interglacials and focuses on the inter-comparison between interglacials as well as their differences from the present and future. Our results show that, for the double CO2 experiment and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenario experiments, the global, Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice areas simulated by LOVECLIM all fall in the range of the multi-model results from CMIP 6. In addition, the results show that the annual mean Arctic sea ice variation is primarily controlled by local summer insolation, while the annual mean Southern Ocean sea ice variation is more influenced by the CO2 concentration but the effect of local summer insolation can’t be ignored. The lowest Arctic sea ice area results from the highest summer insolation at MIS-15, and the lowest Southern Ocean sea ice area at MIS-9 is explained by the highest CO2 concentration and moderate local summer insolation. As compared to the present, the last nine interglacials all have much less sea ice in the Arctic annually and seasonally due to high summer insolation. They also have much less Arctic sea ice in summer than the double CO2 experiment, which makes to some degree the interglacials possible analogues for the future in terms of the changes of sea ice. However, compared to the double CO2 experiment, the interglacials all have much more sea ice in the Southern Ocean due to their much lower CO2 concentration, which suggests the inappropriateness of considering the interglacials as analogues for the future in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that in the search for potential analogues of the present and future climate, the seasonal and regional climate variations should be considered.

Reference: Zhipeng Wu, Qiuzhen Yin, Zhengtang Guo, André Berger, 2022. Comparison of Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice between the last nine interglacials and the future. Climate Dynamics, accepted.

How to cite: Wu, Z., Yin, Q., Guo, Z., and Berger, A.: Comparison of Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice between the last nine interglacials and the future, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3087, 2022.

EGU22-3148 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

The Early-Middle Pleistocene interglacials in the Iberian margin 

Maria Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Dulce Oliveira, César Morales-Molino, Stéphanie Desprat, Josue M. Polanco-Martinez, David Hodell, Filipa Naughton, and Teresa Rodrigues

Interglacials older than 450,000 years ago (ka) are still poorly documented at regional and global scale limiting our knowledge of the wide range of their potential variability and the understanding of the causes of such diversity. Here we present δ18O benthic foraminifera measurements along with sea surface temperature reconstructions and pollen data from IODP site U1385, collected during Expedition 339 « Mediterranean Outflow » on the southwestern Iberian margin, for the Early-Middle Pleistocene interglacials MIS 19, 17, 15 and 13 (~800 to 400 ka). The recorded vegetation and climate changes on land have been directly compared with changes in the eastern North Atlantic subtropical gyre and the global ice volume. This comparison reveals a different structure in the evolution of the Mediterranean forest during these interglacials. The highest forest development occurred during MIS 19e and 15e but in the middle part of MIS 13 (MIS 13c). In contrast with MIS 19, 15 and 13 marked by three more or less similar Mediterranean forest expansions, MIS 17 was characterised by one strong expansion in its middle part (MIS 17c), the strongest of the last 800,000 years, occurring just before the end of the Middle Pleistocene Transition, i.e. the establishment of the strong 100-kyr glacial cycles at ~700 ka.  The duration of the first forested phase was also variable depending on the interglacial with a length of ~12,000 years during MIS 19e and 15e, ~9,000 years for MIS 13c and as long as 16,000 years for MIS 17c. Interestingly, two Mediterranean forest expansions are recorded during two phases of ice growth, MIS 19b and 15b, indicating once more the decoupling between the evolution of global ice volume and the southern European environments. The comparison of the U1385 pollen record, located below 40°N, with sequences above 40°N, for example the Lake Orhid pollen record, shows that the structure and magnitude of the interglacials are different below and above this latitude. At Montalbano Jonico, southern Italy at 40°N, the forest expansion is also very strong (80%) during MIS 17 contrasting with the limited development in Lake Orhid. At this site, MIS 19 is further marked by a strong forest development contrasting with the limited expansion of the Mediterranean forest in SW Iberia.

How to cite: Sanchez Goñi, M. F., Oliveira, D., Morales-Molino, C., Desprat, S., Polanco-Martinez, J. M., Hodell, D., Naughton, F., and Rodrigues, T.: The Early-Middle Pleistocene interglacials in the Iberian margin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3148, 2022.

Numerous studies have been made on paleoclimate and paleovegetation reconstructions and simulations of the past interglacials. However, systematical analysis of the global patterns of the correlation between vegetation pattern and astronomical forcing as well as CO2 between different interglacials is rare. Given the distinct differences in orbital configurations and climate/vegetation variations between MIS-11 and MIS-13, we performed two sets of transient simulations using LOVECLIM 1.3, one driven by insolation change only, and another one by changes in both insolation and CO2. These simulations allow us to investigate the relative effect of astronomical forcing and CO2 on global and regional vegetation changes during these two interglacials. Our results show that the effects of precession and obliquity on vegetation depend strongly on regions, and the simulated results are in good agreement with vegetation reconstructions at key regions. The vegetation response differs widely between MIS-11and MIS-13, which is mainly caused by the difference in their astronomical configurations, and the difference in CO2 concentration between these two interglacials plays a minor role. In addition to the effect of precession and obliquity, our simulations are also able to capture the half precession signal (~ 10 ka) in the climate and vegetation changes in the tropical regions in response to the tropical insolation.

How to cite: Su, Q., Lyu, A., Wu, Z., and Yin, Q.: Diverse manifestations of the impact of astronomical forcing and CO2 on climate and vegetation changes during MIS-11 and MIS-13, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4354, 2022.

EGU22-6616 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

A southern Portuguese margin perspective of Marine Isotope Stage 47 – an interglacial in the 41 kyr world 

Antje H. L. Voelker, Teresa Rodrigues, Samanta Trotta, Maria Marino, and Henning Kuhnert

In order to understand interglacial climate variability we also need to study interglacial periods prior to the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, i.e. within the 41 kyr world. Early Pleistocene interglacial periods, in particular from the interval directly preceding the onset of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, provide ideal study cases since interglacial atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during that period appear to have been similar to or only slightly higher than during the warmest interglacials of the last 800 ka. Here we present the first results from a high-resolution, multi-proxy study of interglacial Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 47 (1424-1452 ka) at IODP Site U1387 (36°48´N 7°43´W), drilled into the Faro Drift on the southern Portuguese margin at 559 m water depth. Nowadays, surface waters near Site U1387 originate from the subtropical gyre, whereas the intermediate-depth Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is encountered at the seafloor. For our study, we use the stable isotope data of planktonic foraminifera species G. bulloides and G. ruber white and benthic foraminifera species P. ariminensis and C. pachyderma, biomarker-derived sea-surface temperatures (SST), the weight percentage of the sand fraction, and microfossil evidence.

Following a rapid transition, interglacial conditions were quickly established in the surface waters with SST at levels near or above 24°C, sometimes even exceeding 25°C, throughout much of MIS 47. Those are the warmest SST so far observed for the Pleistocene at that location, being more than three degrees warmer than modern SST. The common occurrence of tropical species in the planktonic foraminifera fauna hints to a persistent contribution of tropical waters to the surface waters and thus probably the northward expansion and/or intensification of the North Atlantic's subtropical gyre. The MOW, on the other hand, experienced an extended period of poor ventilation, most likely associated with low oxygen levels, as indicated by the extremely low benthic carbon isotope values and the occurrence of gypsum crystals in the sediments that formed when the pyrite in the sediments was oxidized after the cores were opened. Following evidence from younger interglacials, this MOW signal should be linked to reduced ventilation and overturning in the Mediterranean Sea as consequence of increased freshwater input caused by an intensified North African monsoon. The benthic δ18O record of MIS 47 indicates a three phased interglacial period with a minimum separating two maxima. On a subtle level, this phasing might also exist in the surface water records. This and potential causes need to be explored further in the future, when all high-resolution data is available. Overall, the Site U1387 records confirm MIS 47 as a "super"-interglacial, much more so than MIS 31, on the southern Portuguese margin. Insights from this warm interglacial and associated oceanographic conditions and changes in the planktonic and benthic microfossil floras and faunas might provide hints on how future warming in those waters could impact the regional ecosystems.

How to cite: Voelker, A. H. L., Rodrigues, T., Trotta, S., Marino, M., and Kuhnert, H.: A southern Portuguese margin perspective of Marine Isotope Stage 47 – an interglacial in the 41 kyr world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6616, 2022.

EGU22-8018 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

Increased zonal δ13C gradient in the deep South Atlantic after the Mid-Brunhes Transition 

João Ballalai, Thiago Santos, Rodrigo Nascimento, Igor Venancio, Patrícia Piacsek, Bruna Dias, André Belem, Karen Costa, Natalia Vázquez Riveiros, and Ana Luiza Albuquerque

The climate system experienced several periodic oscillations over the last ca. 800 ka known as glacial-interglacial (G-IG) cycles. Disruptions of the global carbon cycle were evident on this time scale, promoting fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration leading to global climate variability. In the more recent interglacials, both Antarctic temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are significantly higher than in the previous “lukewarm interglacials” (ca. 800 – 430 ka) before the Mid-Brunhes Transition (MBT). Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and deepwater formation rate around Antarctica have been invoked to explain a 30 ppm increase in the atmospheric CO2 ­during post-MBT interglacial periods. Deepwater variability is tightly coupled to the ventilation of CO2 in the Southern Ocean by atmospheric and oceanic connections, contributing to carbon storage in the deep ocean and the atmospheric CO2. Here, we present a new 770 ka benthic foraminifera δ13C record from sediment core GL-854 retrieved from the western South Atlantic (WSA) at 2200 m water depth. We compare our record with published δ13C data from the eastern margin to investigate the zonal gradient variability of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the deep South Atlantic basin. WSA δ13C variability and absolute values strongly mimic the North Atlantic mid-depth record at the NADW formation region. This similarity is interpreted as NADW preferentially carrying a modified signal through the deep western boundary current towards the WSA (rather than towards the eastern margin) after the MBT. The δ13C gradient based on the difference between benthic foraminifera C. wuellerstorfi from both margins (Δδ13Cw-e) gradually increases after a transitional period between ca. 400 ka to 300 ka towards the Holocene. We suggest that the mechanism behind this long-term increasing trend on the Δδ13Cw-e record post-MBT is the result of enhanced production of North Component Water due to Agulhas Leakage intensification driven by reduced sea-ice extent after the MBT. Furthermore, reduced sea-ice extent decreases the Antarctic Bottom Water density and formation in the Southern Ocean, contributing to the deepening of the AMOC during post-MBT interglacial periods. Our interpretation proposes a framework connecting sea-ice and ocean-atmosphere dynamics to deepwater geometry within the South Atlantic basin, which ultimately contributed to the climate change observed across the MBT.

How to cite: Ballalai, J., Santos, T., Nascimento, R., Venancio, I., Piacsek, P., Dias, B., Belem, A., Costa, K., Vázquez Riveiros, N., and Albuquerque, A. L.: Increased zonal δ13C gradient in the deep South Atlantic after the Mid-Brunhes Transition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8018, 2022.

EGU22-10148 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

Higher state of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the Last Interglacial (130-115 ka BP): evidence from temperature and hydrology in the Dead Sea 

Emmanuel Guillerm, Véronique Gardien, Niels Brall, Daniel Ariztegui, Markus Schwab, Ina Neugebauer, Nicolas Waldmann, Adeline Lach, and Frédéric Caupin

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently the main mode of winter atmospheric variability in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. It represents the fluctuation of the meridional sea-level pressure gradient in the North Atlantic, with high and low phases defined by high and low pressure gradients, respectively. High (or low) NAO phases are associated with wet and warm (or dry and cold) weather conditions in Northern Europe. In mid latitude regions such as the Mediterranean, this relationship is inverse, producing dry and cold (or wet and warm) conditions. Whether or not the average state of the NAO may have shifted in the past is much debated, with major implications for the understanding of past regional climate. Using a climate model, Felis et al. (2004) showed that the average state of the NAO during the Last Interglacial (130-115 ka BP) was significantly higher than during the pre-industrial period, with a high plateau from ~126 to 118 ka BP. However, proxy-based reconstructions of temperature and rainfall are needed to support this. Here, we use a new method, Brillouin spectroscopy on halite fluid inclusions, to reconstruct the evolution of temperature and hydrology in the Dead Sea, southern Levant, throughout the Last Interglacial. We find lower than modern Dead Sea temperatures and a lowering freshwater influx throughout the last interglacial. Using climate data from the recent decades, we demonstrate that the temperature of the Dead Sea hypolimnion mainly depends on winter air temperature, which is itself anti-correlated with the NAO. We also demonstrate that, during years of very high NAO, rainfall is drastically reduced in the lake catchment. In light of our analysis of modern climate data, the reconstructed cold and dry conditions in the Dead Sea area is consistent with the modelled higher NAO conditions.

How to cite: Guillerm, E., Gardien, V., Brall, N., Ariztegui, D., Schwab, M., Neugebauer, I., Waldmann, N., Lach, A., and Caupin, F.: Higher state of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the Last Interglacial (130-115 ka BP): evidence from temperature and hydrology in the Dead Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10148, 2022.

EGU22-12679 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

Summer Arctic temperatures in PMIP4 Last Interglacial simulations and their link to Arctic sea ice 

Rahul Sivankutty, Louise Sime, Irene Malmierca Vallet, and Agatha de Boer

Investigating climate models responses and feedbacks under warmer climates is useful in building confidence in future climate projections. Here we focus on the summer sea ice in the Arctic during the Last Interglacial period (LIG), when the Arctic was warmer than the Pre-Industrial period (PI) by around 4.5 ± 1.7 K. Given that it is difficult to ascertain the state of Arctic sea ice from marine core proxies of sea ice state, we focus instead on summer surface air temperature (SSAT) in CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and compare these with equivalent proxy data. All 12 models we have analysed show both warmer SSAT and a reduction in summer sea ice in the LIG compared to the PI, with an average warming of +3.6K and an average 52% decrease in minimum sea ice area.

 

We find that model-observation differences in LIG SSAT are linearly related to the percentage loss of summer Arctic sea ice. However this general finding does not fit the CNRM model result, which is an outlier. This simulation captures the observed pattern of SSAT, without being close to ice-free. However peculiarities in the CNRM set-up (forcing and sea ice model tuning) means it is unclear what can be drawn from this one result. CNRM aside, models tend to yield more accurate LIG SSAT changes when they are closer to an ice-free state in summer. The models which feature sea ice losses larger than the multi-model-mean sea ice loss, tend to have the smallest model-observation SSAT errors. The results of this study provides caveated support to the argument that Arctic could have been ice-free during LIG summers. That said, a careful examination of the SSAT dataset would also be value to the LIG community, given that these results are dependent on the LIG SSAT observational dataset.

 

How to cite: Sivankutty, R., Sime, L., Malmierca Vallet, I., and de Boer, A.: Summer Arctic temperatures in PMIP4 Last Interglacial simulations and their link to Arctic sea ice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12679, 2022.

EGU22-12943 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

Arctic Amplification through Inter-seasonal Feedback Effect in Past Interglacials 

Lynn Hirose, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masakazu Yoshimori, Wing-Le Chan, Ryouta O'ishi, and Takashi Obase

Past interglacials allow investigating the climatic processes and associated feedbacks during warm periods, which are characterized by different combinations of climatic forcing such as solar radiation, GHGs, and ice sheets. Arctic warming amplification, a common phenomenon between past interglacials and present warming, has seasonality in its feedback mechanism, and detailed study of these internal feedbacks is still lacking despite its global impact. In this study, the simulation experiments under conditions close to the past interglacial periods (MIS1; Holocene, MIS5e; Last Interglacial, and MIS11) are conducted using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model MIROC (4m) AOVGCM, particularly focusing on the role of ice sheets and Arctic sea ice. Climate responses to inputs and conditions are compared to examine the seasonal effects of atmosphere-ocean-ice feedbacks on Northern hemisphere high-latitudes temperature. Ice sheet distribution is set as a boundary condition in addition to the orbital elements, land cover, and GHGs to account the effect of remaining ice sheets at the timing of peak insolation. Feedback Analysis is also conducted to quantify the contribution of each feedback element to the surface temperature change. It is demonstrated that an inter-seasonal effect of air-sea-ice-vegetation feedbacks contributes to Arctic warming amplification, where heat gained in summer is used for sea ice melting and ocean absorption, and is released in autumn and winter, resulting in annual warming. This process is amplified when considering vegetation feedbacks and seen commonly in MIS1, 5e, and 11. In periods when ice sheets remain, Arctic sea ice keeps a high degree of concentration in summer, and annual mean temperatures at Northern high latitudes are lower than would be expected from insolation intensity. These results imply that the presence of Northern hemisphere ice sheet has a significant effect on Arctic climate response to insolation intensity by suppressing feedbacks that contribute to Arctic amplification through the reduced melt of summer sea ice.

How to cite: Hirose, L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Yoshimori, M., Chan, W.-L., O'ishi, R., and Obase, T.: Arctic Amplification through Inter-seasonal Feedback Effect in Past Interglacials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12943, 2022.

EGU22-13117 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

Impacts of insolation and CO2 on the spatial differences of the MIS-9 and MIS-11 climate between monsoonal China and central Asia 

Hao Lu, Qiuzhen Yin, Zhipeng Wu, Feng Shi, Qinzhen Hao, Dunsheng Xia, and Zhengtang Guo

Marine oxygen isotope records and ice cores in Antarctica suggest that Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9, an interglacial occurring about 300 ka ago, is a strong interglacial and has the highest greenhouse gases (GHG) concentrations during the past 800 ka. Model results also show that MIS-9 is the warmest interglacial among the last nine ones as a result of both its high CO2 concentration and its high summer insolation in the northern Hemisphere (NH). However, the China loess records show that the paleosol S3 that corresponds to MIS-9 is not necessarily strong as compared to some other paleosol units such as the S4 soil that was formed during MIS-11, suggesting relatively drier climate condition during MIS-9. By contrast, in Tajikistan of southern central Asia, the paleosol S3 is the most developed soil over the past 800 ka, indicating a relatively warm and humid climate conditions. The difference in the paleosol formation and the MIS-9 climate between monsoonal China and central Asia is intriguing. In this study, we combine loess records from monsoonal China and central Asia as well as climate simulation results to understand the spatial difference of the MIS-9 climate in particular in comparison with the climate of MIS-11. The individual and combined contributions of insolation and greenhouse gases are quantified through simulations with the LOVECLIM model and using the factor separation technique. Our results show that the simulated effective moisture conditions between northern China and southern central Asia are consistent with the loess records and field observation. Insolation leads to much more annual mean precipitation than GHG during MIS-9 in southern central Asia, explaining a much wetter MIS-9 there. By contrast, both insolation and GHG lead to more annual mean precipitation and evaporation during MIS-9 in northern China, leading to only a slight difference in the effective moisture between MIS-9 and MIS-11. In addition, compared to MIS-11, the larger obliquity and higher GHG concentration during MIS-9 lead to an anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern similar to negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), favoring precipitation increase in southern central Asia and therefore explain strong soil development in Tajikistan.

How to cite: Lu, H., Yin, Q., Wu, Z., Shi, F., Hao, Q., Xia, D., and Guo, Z.: Impacts of insolation and CO2 on the spatial differences of the MIS-9 and MIS-11 climate between monsoonal China and central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13117, 2022.

EGU22-13443 | Presentations | CL1.1.3

Mid-Brunhes Transition caused by Antarctic ice sheet melting during MIS11c 

Xu Zhang, Stephen Barker, Martin Werner, Yuchen Sun, and Chronis Tzedakis

Interglacial intensity in past 800 kyr is characterized by a transition, about 430 kyr ago, between the older ones, which were relatively cool and low sea level, and the more recent ones, which were relatively warm and high sea level. This transition, as identified in Antarctic ice core and benthic calcite d18Oc records, corresponds to the so-called mid-Brunhes Transition (MBT). However, its origin and underlying dynamics remain elusive. Here we show, based on a start-of-art, stable water isotope enabled climate model, that additional ice volume to the present-day levels should be considered in order to reproduce the systematic enrichment in interglacial d18Oc before the MBT. This extra ice of ~18 e.s.l.m. likely exists in the Antarctic, which in turn weakens vertical mixing in Southern Ocean, potentially accounting for the low interglacial atmospheric CO2 levels prior to the MBT. Our results further indicate that during MIS11c the unique climate background leads to extra Antarctic ice sheet melting, eventually giving rise to a systematic change in interglacial climate and hence accounting for the MBT.

How to cite: Zhang, X., Barker, S., Werner, M., Sun, Y., and Tzedakis, C.: Mid-Brunhes Transition caused by Antarctic ice sheet melting during MIS11c, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13443, 2022.

The mechanism of stochastic resonance (SR) in a bistable system was introduced [1] to explain the glacial-interglacial cycles in the Quaternary and is still regarded as a dynamical systems paradigm for those climate cycles. In the SR the stochastic forcing must satisfy a rather stringent condition; besides, glacial inceptions occur abruptly, as well as the glacial terminations. However, these conditions do not seem to be verified in the real climate system. Here it is shown that the alternative dynamical paradigm -that may be termed deterministic excitation (DE)- in which relaxation oscillations (ROs) are excited by the astronomical forcing in a purely deterministic framework, overcomes those limitations and may therefore provide a more plausible theoretical basis for the explanation of the glacial-interglacial variability.

In an excitable dynamical system a RO connects a basic state to an unstable excited state, which is then followed by a spontaneous, slow return to the original state. Such transition is self-sustained in a given parameter range of the autonomous system, otherwise it can be excited by an external deterministic time-dependent forcing (DE) or by noise (coherence resonance). Examples of DE in ocean dynamics are presented for the Kuroshio Extension in the North Pacific and for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Southern Ocean.

A 4-dimensional nonlinear excitable spectral model of the wind-driven ocean circulation [2] is then used to briefly illustrate the main aspects of excitable climate dynamics, focusing on the occurrence of coherence resonance [3], on the DE of ROs under the action of an aperiodic forcing [4] and on the tipping points due to parameter drift [5]. Finally, a classical energy balance model is extended to obtain a minimal excitable model of the late Pleistocene ice ages [Pierini, in preparation]. The timing of the interglacials, determined by the DE caused by the variations of the Earth’s orbital eccentricity and axial tilt and precession, is found to be in significant agreement with proxy data. (Support from the IPSODES-P.N.R.A. project is acknowledged)

[1] Benzi R., Parisi G., Sutera A., Vulpiani A., 1982. Tellus 34, 10-16.

[2] Pierini S., 2011. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 41, 1585-1604.

[3] Pierini S., 2012. Phys. Rev. E 85, 027101.

[4] Pierini S., Ghil M., Chekroun M.D., 2016. J. Climate 29, 4185-4202.

[5] Pierini S., Ghil M., 2021. Sci. Rep. 11, 11126.

How to cite: Pierini, S.: On the functioning of the glacial-interglacial variability: deterministic excitation vs. stochastic resonance, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1039, 2022.

EGU22-1422 | Presentations | CL1.1.4 | Highlight | Milutin Milankovic Medal Lecture

Milankovitch Theory and Global Monsoon 

Hai Cheng

  The Milankovitch Theory of orbital climate change postulates that changes in the caloric summer half-year insolation (or Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) at ~65°N latitude) drive changes in the ice-sheets extent (i.e., global ice-volume) at Earth’s orbital periods (i.e., the sensu-stricto theory). These insolation-driven changes in turn, incite ancillary changes in other parts of the global climate systems via various forcing and feedback mechanisms (the sensu-lato hypothesis). In this theoretical framework the high-latitude glaciation processes took the center stage while the low-latitude global monsoon was essentially excluded. In the last two decades, large numbers of cave d18O records with precise radiometric chronologies have propelled speleothems to the forefront of paleoclimatology. Of particular interest are the speleothem records from North America that reveal a persistent orbital pacing of the North American climate at the precession band, which is nearly in phase with changes in the global ice-volume and atmospheric CO2 but lags June insolation at 65°N by ~5000 years, in accordance with the sensu-stricto Milankovitch theory. Contrastingly, the low-latitude tropical speleothem records manifest an orbital-scale pattern of global monsoon, which is dominated by precession cycles with a nearly anti-phased relation between the two hemispheres. Importantly, the monsoon variations track summer (July/January) insolation without significant lags at the precession band. We thus suggest that precession-induced changes in summer insolation produce distinct climate variability in the ice-sheet proximal and tropical regions predominantly via the (delayed) ice-volume/CO2 forcing/feedbacks and nearly-in-phase monsoon/CH4 responses/feedbacks.

  As for global-scale millennial events that were superimposed on orbital-scale climate variations, the essence of these events—i.e., conventional ice age terminations and other smaller events (the so-called ‘low-amplitude versions of terminations’), is virtually similar. The time-series of millennial-scale variations after removing orbital insolation signals from the speleothem monsoon record and long-term trend in the Antarctic ice core temperature (δD) record characterize the millennial climate variances of both ice age termination and low-amplitude versions of termination events. Remarkably, the millennial-scale variations show significant obliquity and precession cycles that are in-phase with North Hemisphere June insolation, implying a critical role of changes in orbital insolation in triggering the ice age terminations. These observations, in turn, provide new insights into the classic ‘100 ka problem’.

  Indeed, a more comprehensive picture of orbital theory of climate is steadily emerging with the growth of new geological proxy data, particularly the low-latitude speleothem data from the vast global monsoon regime, providing critical complements to marine and ice-core data.

How to cite: Cheng, H.: Milankovitch Theory and Global Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1422, 2022.

EGU22-1435 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Towards an astrochronological tuned age model for the upper Pliocene–lower Pleistocene Western Foreland Basin of Taiwan 

Romain Vaucher, Christian Zeeden, Amy Hsieh, Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, Andrew T. Lin, Chorng-Shern Horng, and Shahin E. Dashtgard

The stratigraphic records of shallow-marine environments are not commonly regarded as excellent climate archives because of their presumed temporal incompleteness. However, a recent study of lower Pleistocene strata in the Western Foreland Basin, Taiwan, reveals high-resolution records of past climate oscillations preserved within shallow-marine strata. Deriving such narratives is made possible because of the high accommodation and sedimentation rates in the basin, which enhanced the completeness of the stratigraphic record.

Here, we astrochronologically tune the Chinshui Shale and the lower part of the Cholan Formation of the Western Foreland Basin from approximately 3.5 to 2 Ma. These strata are calibrated to global deep-sea stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) records with established time scales detailing global climate change during the studied time period. The Chinshui Shale is mudstone-dominated and was deposited mostly in offshore settings, while the Cholan Formation comprises mainly heterolithic strata deposited in shallower settings (i.e., offshore transition, nearshore) of the paleo-Taiwan Strait. The data used herein are two borehole gamma-ray profiles through the Chinshui Shale and the Cholan Formation that have a proximal-distal relation to Taiwan. High gamma-ray values reflect clay-rich intervals and correlate to lower values of δ18O in the global reference records. Low gamma-ray values point to sand-rich packages and correlate with higher values of δ18O.

Preliminary results show that the alternating clay-rich to sand-rich deposits during the late Pliocene to early Pleistocene are orbitally paced. The results allow us to i) tune the upper Pliocene–lower Pleistocene Chinshui Shale and lower part of the Cholan Formation, ii) refine the magneto-biostratigraphic framework established for this time interval in the Western Foreland Basin of Taiwan, and iii) lay the groundwork for connecting climatic changes in Taiwan during this time period to the wider frame of global climate change. 

How to cite: Vaucher, R., Zeeden, C., Hsieh, A., Kaboth-Bahr, S., Lin, A. T., Horng, C.-S., and Dashtgard, S. E.: Towards an astrochronological tuned age model for the upper Pliocene–lower Pleistocene Western Foreland Basin of Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1435, 2022.

EGU22-1451 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Multiproxy paleoceanography from Broken Ridge pinpoints the onset of Tasman Leakage at 6.6 Ma 

Jing Lyu, Beth Christensen, Gerald Auer, and David De Vleeschouwer

Inter-basinal heat and water exchange play a prominent role in driving global climate change on astronomical timescales, as part of the global thermohaline circulation. Tasman Leakage connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans at an intermediate water depth, south of Australia. Therewith, Tasman Leakage advects heat toward the Indian Ocean, and ultimately toward the Agulhas system. Hence, Tasman Leakage constitutes a non-negligible part of the present-day thermohaline circulation. The onset of Tasman Leakage likely occurred sometime in the Late Miocene (Christensen et al., 2021), but precise geochronology for the establishment of this inter-basinal connection is still lacking. Moreover, Tasman Leakage sensitivity to astronomical forcing remains to be constrained in detail. To understand Tasman Leakage on astronomical timescales, we present a new Miocene-to-recent multi-proxy dataset from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 752 and 754, cored on Broken Ridge (30°53.475’S), southeastern Indian Ocean.

The dataset consists of new X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) core scans that provide element contents for 18 different elements, along with benthic carbon and oxygen stable isotopic records at 4 cm resolution. The XRF-derived Ca/Fe record is paced by 405-kyr eccentricity between 22 Ma and 13 Ma (early-middle Miocene), but then becomes more sensitive to obliquity and precession forcing. The new high-resolution benthic δ13C record confirms the onset of Tasman Leakage in the Late Miocene, more specifically at 6.6 Ma. This is when the Broken Ridge benthic δ13C signature no longer reflects an Antarctic Intermediate Water signal. The benthic δ18O record shows a strong ~110-kyr eccentricity imprint, indicating that Tasman Leakage might be most sensitive to this astronomical parameter. We conclude that the Neogene nannofossil oozes, preserved on Broken Ridge, constitute an excellent paleoceanographic archive that allows us to fingerprint Tasman Leakage sensitivity to astronomical forcing.

How to cite: Lyu, J., Christensen, B., Auer, G., and De Vleeschouwer, D.: Multiproxy paleoceanography from Broken Ridge pinpoints the onset of Tasman Leakage at 6.6 Ma, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1451, 2022.

EGU22-1982 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Plio-Pleistocene Perth Basin water temperatures and Leeuwin Current dynamics (Indian Ocean) derived from oxygen and clumped isotope paleothermometry 

David De Vleeschouwer, Marion Peral, Marta Marchegiano, Angelina Füllberg, Niklas Meinicke, Heiko Pälike, Gerald Auer, Benjamin Petrick, Christoph Snoeck, Steven Goderis, and Philippe Claeys

The Pliocene sedimentary record provides a window into Earth’s climate dynamics under warmer-than-present boundary conditions. However, the Pliocene cannot be considered a stable warm climate that constitutes a solid baseline for middle-road future climate projections. Indeed, the increasing availability of time-continuous sedimentary archives (e.g., marine sediment cores) reveals complex temporal and spatial patterns of Pliocene ocean and climate variability on astronomical timescales. The Perth Basin is particularly interesting in that respect because it remains unclear if and how the Leeuwin Current sustained the comparably wet Pliocene climate in West-Australia, as well as how it influenced Southern Hemisphere paleoclimate variability. To constrain Leeuwin Current dynamics in time and space, this project constructed a new orbitally-resolved planktonic foraminifera (Trilobatus sacculifer) stable isotope record (δ18O and clumped isotopes Δ47) for the Plio-Pleistocene (4–2 Ma) interval of International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1459. It complements an existing TEX86 record from the same site and similar planktonic isotope records from the Northern Carnarvon Basin (ODP Site 763 and IODP Site U1463). The comparison of TEX86 and Δ47 paleothermometers reveals that TEX86 likely reflects sea surface temperatures (SST, 23.8–28.9 °C), whereas T. sacculifer Δ47 calcification temperatures probably echo the state of the lower mixed layer and upper thermocline at the studied Site U1459 (18.2–20.8 °C). The isotopic δ18O gradient along a 19° S–29° S latitudinal transect, between 3.9–2.2 Ma, displays large variability, ranging between 0.5 and 2.0 ‰, whereby a low latitudinal gradient is indicative of a strong Leeuwin Current and vice versa. These results challenge the interpretation that suggested a tectonic event in the Indonesian Throughflow as the cause for the rapid steepening of the isotopic gradient (0.9 to 1.5 ‰) around 3.7 Ma. The tectonic interpretation appears obsolete as it is now clear that the 3.7 Ma steepening of the isotopic gradient is intermittent, with flat latitudinal gradients (~0.5 ‰) restored in the latest Pliocene (2.9–2.6 Ma). Still, the new analysis affirms that a combination of astronomical forcing of wind patterns and eustatic sea level controlled Leeuwin Current intensity. A period of relatively weak Leeuwin Current between 3.7 and 3.1 Ma is advocated; a time interval also marked by cooler conditions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. In conclusion, the intensity of the Leeuwin Current and the latitudinal position of the subtropical front are rooted in the same forcing: Heat transport through the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) valve propagated to the temperate zone through Indian Ocean poleward heat transport. The common ITF forcing explains the observed coherence of Southern Hemisphere ocean and climate records.

How to cite: De Vleeschouwer, D., Peral, M., Marchegiano, M., Füllberg, A., Meinicke, N., Pälike, H., Auer, G., Petrick, B., Snoeck, C., Goderis, S., and Claeys, P.: Plio-Pleistocene Perth Basin water temperatures and Leeuwin Current dynamics (Indian Ocean) derived from oxygen and clumped isotope paleothermometry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1982, 2022.

EGU22-2038 | Presentations | CL1.1.4 | Highlight

Paleo-ENSO influence on African environmentsand early modern humans 

Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, William D. Gosling, Ralf Vogelsang, André Bahr, Eleanor M. L. Scerri, Asfawossen Asrat, Andrew S. Cohen, Walter Düsing, Verena Foerster, Henry F. Lamb, Mark A. Maslin, Helen M. Roberts, Frank Schäbitz, and Martin H. Trauth

In this study, we synthesize terrestrial and marine proxy records, spanning the past 620,000 years, to decipher pan-African climate variability and its drivers and potential linkages to hominin evolution. We find a tight correlation between moisture availability across Africa to El Niño Southern Ocean oscillation (ENSO) variability, a manifestation of the Walker Circulation, that was most likely driven by changes in Earth’s eccentricity. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude insolation was a prominent driver of pan-African climate change during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. We argue that these low-latitude climate processes governed the dispersion and evolution of vegetation as well as mammals in eastern and western Africa by increasing resource-rich and stable ecotonal settings thought to have been important to early modern humans.

How to cite: Kaboth-Bahr, S., Gosling, W. D., Vogelsang, R., Bahr, A., Scerri, E. M. L., Asrat, A., Cohen, A. S., Düsing, W., Foerster, V., Lamb, H. F., Maslin, M. A., Roberts, H. M., Schäbitz, F., and Trauth, M. H.: Paleo-ENSO influence on African environmentsand early modern humans, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2038, 2022.

EGU22-2362 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Orbital-scale deoxygenation trends driven by ventilation in Cretaceous ocean 

Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Marie Laugié, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, and François Raisson

Mechanisms driving cyclicity in the marine realm during hothouse climate periods in response to Earth’s orbit variations remains debated. Orbital cycles fingerprint in the oceanographic records results from the effect of terrestrial (eg. weathering-derived nutrient supply, freshwater discharge) and oceanic (eg. productivity, oxygenation) processes, whose respective contribution remains to be defined. Here we investigate the effect of extreme orbital configurations on oxygenation state of the ocean using ocean biogeochemistry simulations with the IPSL-CM5A2 Earth System Model under (CT) Cenomanian-Turonian boundary conditions. We also use an additional inert artificial tracer allowing to compute the age of water masses, corresponding to the time spent since the last contact with the surface. Our simulations show that small ocean ventilation changes triggered by orbitally-induced variations in high latitude deep water formation have strong impact on the oceanic oxygen spatial distribution. It is particularly true for the proto-Atlantic basin which is the less oxygenated basin during the CT (Laugie et al., 2021). The eight sets of orbital parameters tested here imply changes in the Atlantic anoxic seafloor area going from 20 to 80%. All three parameters describing the Earth’s orbit (eccentricity, precession and obliquity) show a substantial control on these fluctuations. We also note that orbital fluctuations result in important changes in continental runoff but the impact remains highly localized to coastal environments – the open ocean mainly responding to the ocean ventilation. Last but not least, changes in productivity induced by the orbital parameters remain spatially heterogeneous and could be responsible for more local signal within a single basin.

 

Laugié, M., Donnadieu, Y., Ladant, J. B., Bopp, L., Ethé, C., & Raisson, F. (2021). Exploring the impact of Cenomanian paleogeography and marine gateways on oceanic oxygen. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36(7):e2020PA004202.

How to cite: Sarr, A.-C., Laugié, M., Donnadieu, Y., Ladant, J.-B., and Raisson, F.: Orbital-scale deoxygenation trends driven by ventilation in Cretaceous ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2362, 2022.

EGU22-3744 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Astronomical Climate Pacing in a Model Framework for Late Triassic Lake Level Cycles 

Jan Landwehrs, Michael Wagreich, Georg Feulner, Matteo Willeit, Jessica H. Whiteside, and Paul E. Olsen

Combining both detailed geological records and climate modeling provides exciting opportunities to understand orbital effects on the early Mesozoic greenhouse climate across the supercontinent Pangaea. Lake sediments from the Newark-Hartford Basins (NHB) of the eastern US record cyclic climate changes in the tropics of Pangaea during the Late Triassic and earliest Jurassic (~233–199 Ma). We explore how the combined climatic effect of orbital forcing, paleogeographic changes and atmospheric pCO2 variations could have contributed to major features of this record.

For this, we assess results from an ensemble of transient, orbitally driven climate simulations for nine geologic timeslices, three atmospheric pCO2 values and two paleogeographic reconstructions. Each simulation is run with an idealized orbital forcing, with precession, modulated by eccentricity, and obliquity oscillating over a 250 kyr interval. The long duration and large number of simulations is achieved by utilizing the fast CLIMBER-X Earth System Model.

A transition from tropical humid to more seasonal and ultimately semi-arid climates is associated with the tectonic drift of the NHB region from the equator to ~20°N. The orbital modulation of the precipitation-evaporation balance that could be recorded in the lake sediments is most pronounced during 220 to 200 Ma, while it is limited by weak seasonality and increasing aridity before and afterwards, respectively. Lower pCO2 values around 205 Ma contribute to drier climates and could have led to the damping of sediment cyclicity observed at this time. Eccentricity-modulated precession dominates the orbital climate response in the NHB area, with maximum humidity associated to high spring-summer insolation and enhanced moisture import from the Tethys sea. High obliquity further amplifies summer precipitation through the seasonally shifting tropical rainfall belt.

We furthermore show how contemporaneous proxy localities, e.g. in the Germanic Basin, Junggar Basin or Colorado Plateau, can also be evaluated in this model framework. Studying the varying climate response in these different areas provides directions towards an integrated picture of global astronomical climate pacing in the Late Triassic. Furthermore, the presented approach is readily applicable to other periods in Earth history.

How to cite: Landwehrs, J., Wagreich, M., Feulner, G., Willeit, M., Whiteside, J. H., and Olsen, P. E.: Astronomical Climate Pacing in a Model Framework for Late Triassic Lake Level Cycles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3744, 2022.

EGU22-4667 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Orbital forcing of early Eocene hyperthermal events: A new benthic foraminiferal record from the Indian Ocean, 50-51 Ma 

Nicola Kirby, Sietske Batenburg, Melanie Leng, Tom Dunkley Jones, and Kirsty Edgar

The early Eocene greenhouse climate is characterised by a series of ‘hyperthermal’ events, defined by transient negative excursions in marine carbonate carbon and oxygen isotopes. Proxy records of the larger magnitude hyperthermal events are consistent with massive carbon release to the ocean-atmosphere system and associated with global warming and ocean acidification. Such events therefore represent the best analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. However, the causes and nature of smaller early Eocene hyperthermals, particularly through the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), are less well understood. We know that hyperthermal events are paced by the 100 kyr (short) and 405 kyr (long) eccentricity cycles, indicating that Earth’s orbital parameters play a key role in driving carbon cycle perturbations, but the precise forcing mechanisms remain unclear. Additionally, few continuous records of the smaller, orbitally-paced hyperthermals exist and there have been no published high-resolution climate records from the Indian Ocean so far from this interval. High-resolution records across the full spectrum of hyperthermal events and from multiple ocean basins are needed to fully identify their cause(s). Here, we constrain the nature and magnitude of environmental change during hyperthermal events O-T in the Indian Ocean using a new, high-resolution benthic stable isotope record from IODP Expedition 369 Site U1514, Indian Ocean, from 50-51 Ma. Using spectral analysis techniques, we identify the dominant periodicities in the benthic stable isotope record and investigate the phasing between stable isotopes and other environmental records from Site U1514, including sedimentary Ca/Fe. We compare the Site U1514 stable isotope record with environmental records across this time interval from other sites to determine the synchronicity of climate and carbon cycle changes between different ocean basins, aiming to further examine the forcing mechanisms of these early Eocene hyperthermal events. 

How to cite: Kirby, N., Batenburg, S., Leng, M., Dunkley Jones, T., and Edgar, K.: Orbital forcing of early Eocene hyperthermal events: A new benthic foraminiferal record from the Indian Ocean, 50-51 Ma, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4667, 2022.

EGU22-5323 | Presentations | CL1.1.4 | Highlight

The Resonant Tidal Evolution of the Earth-Moon Distance 

Mohammad Farhat, Pierre Auclair-Desrotour, Gwenaël Boué, and Jacques Laskar

Due to tidal interactions in the Earth-Moon system, the spin of the Earth slows down with time and the Moon drifts away. This present recession of the Moon is now measured with great precision using Lunar Laser Ranging, but it has been realised, more than fifty years ago, that simple solid-Earth tidal models extrapolated backwards in time lead to an age of the Moon that is by far incompatible with the geochronological and geochemical evidence. Since then, in order to evade this paradox, more elaborated models have been proposed, taking into account the tidal frequency-dependent oceanic dissipation; but none so far has been able to fit both the estimated lunar age and the present rate of lunar recession. In this talk, we present a physical model that reconciles these two constraints and yields a unique solution of the tidal history. This solution fits remarkably well the available geological proxies and consolidates the cyclostratigraphic method, although such a fit was not imposed. The resulting evolution involves multiple crossings of resonances in the oceanic dissipation that are associated with significant and rapid variations in the lunar orbital distance, the Earth’s length of the day, obliquity, and precession frequency. 

How to cite: Farhat, M., Auclair-Desrotour, P., Boué, G., and Laskar, J.: The Resonant Tidal Evolution of the Earth-Moon Distance, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5323, 2022.

EGU22-6073 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Astronomical forcing as a trigger of abrupt climate changes at the end of interglacials 

Qiuzhen Yin, Zhipeng Wu, Andre Berger, Hugues Goosse, and David Hodell

Many paleoclimate records show that the end of interglacials of the late Pleistocene was marked by abrupt cooling events and increased millennial variability. Strong abrupt cooling occurring when climate was still in a warm interglacial condition is puzzling and its cause remains uncertain. In this study, we performed transient climate simulations for all the eleven interglacial (sub)stages of the past 800,000 years with the model LOVECLIM1.3 (Yin et al., 2021). Our results show that there exists a threshold in the astronomically induced insolation below which abrupt changes at the end of interglacials occur. When the summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes decreases to a critical value, it triggers a strong, abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a strong cooling in the NH followed by high-amplitude variability. The mechanism involves sea ice feedbacks in the Northern Nordic Sea and the Labrador Sea. Similar abrupt oscillations happen in the simulated temperature, precipitation and vegetation from low to high latitudes. Our simulated results are supported by observations from many marine and terrestrial records, including for example the planktic d18O record from the Iberian Margin, the Greenland ice core record and the Chinese speleothem records. Our study shows that the astronomically-induced slow variation of insolation could trigger abrupt climate changes. The insolation threshold occurred at the end of each interglacial of the past 800,000 years, suggesting its fundamental role in terminating the warm climate conditions of the interglacials. Our results show that the next insolation threshold will occur in 50,000 years, suggesting an exceptionally long interglacial ahead, which is in line with what has been suggested by previous modelling studies. 

Reference:  Yin Q.Z., Wu Z.P., Berger A., Goosse H., Hodell D., 2021. Insolation triggered abrupt weakening of Atlantic circulation at the end of interglacials. Science, 373, 1035-1040, DOI: 10.1126/science.abg1737

How to cite: Yin, Q., Wu, Z., Berger, A., Goosse, H., and Hodell, D.: Astronomical forcing as a trigger of abrupt climate changes at the end of interglacials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6073, 2022.

EGU22-6423 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Integrating astronomical solutions and geological observations 

Matthias Sinnesael and Jacques Laskar

Some of the large climatic changes of the past originate in the variations of the Earth’s orbit and of its spin axis resulting from the gravitational pull of the planets and the Moon. These variations can be traced over several millions of years back in time (Ma) in the geological sedimentary records (e.g. Milankovitch cycles). Over the last decades, the Earth’s orbital and spin solutions have been used to establish a geological timescale based on the astronomical solutions. Nevertheless, extending this procedure through the Mesozoic Era (66-252 Ma) and beyond is difficult, as the solar system motion is chaotic. It will thus not be possible to retrieve the precise orbital motion of the planets beyond 60 Ma from their present state.

Astrogeo, a project funded by the European Research Council (ERC), will use the geological record as an input to break the horizon of predictability of 60 Ma resulting from the chaotic motion of the planets. This will be achieved by considering statistical methods and by using ancient geological data as an additional constraint in obtaining astronomical solutions. Astrogeo aims to provide a template orbital solution for the Earth that could be used for paleoclimate studies over any geological time. This will open a new era where the geological records will be used to retrieve the orbital evolution of the solar system. It will thus open a new observational window for retrieving not only the history of the Earth, but of the entire solar system. Here, we want to reach out to the broader cyclostratigraphic community to discuss suitable procedures and data sets to couple both theoretical solutions and geological observations. In particular, we are interested in examining high-quality data sets with clear and well-constrained (single or combined) expressions of the astronomical parameters of eccentricity, precession and obliquity.

How to cite: Sinnesael, M. and Laskar, J.: Integrating astronomical solutions and geological observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6423, 2022.

EGU22-6429 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Perturbations of volcanic CO2 emission to orbital paced climate-carbon cycle 

Fenghao Liu, Enqing Huang, Jinlong Du, Wentao Ma, Xiaolin Ma, Lucas Lourens, and Jun Tian

How the global carbon cycle and climate changes interact on orbital timescales under different boundary conditions remains elusive. Previous studies have found that changes in global ice-sheet volume and marine carbon cycle are synchronized at the eccentricity time scales with a slight lead of climate-cryosphere relative to carbon cycle throughout Oligo-Miocene (~34-6 Ma). Here, we analyze the evolutive phase relationship between benthic foraminiferal oxygen (δ18O) and carbon isotope (δ13C) to reveal an unnoticed phenomenon that variations of oceanic carbon cycle could lead those of global ice-sheet volume on 405-kyr cycle during Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO, ~17-14 Ma), which was a profound warming interval partly ascribed to the carbon emission from the eruption of the Columbia River Basalts Group (CRBG). Eccentricity sensitivity analysis indicate a relatively constant response of ice sheet to orbital forcing during MCO. Combined the results of box model, we propose that volcanic CO2 input accelerates the response of marine carbon cycle to orbital forcing. The enhanced greenhouses effect probably had strengthened the low-latitude hydrological cycle and chemical weathering and ultimately generated the δ13C-lead-δ18O scenario.

How to cite: Liu, F., Huang, E., Du, J., Ma, W., Ma, X., Lourens, L., and Tian, J.: Perturbations of volcanic CO2 emission to orbital paced climate-carbon cycle, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6429, 2022.

EGU22-11342 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

Astronomical modulation of oxygenation conditions during the Telychian (Silurian) recorded in the Sommerodde-1 core from Bornholm Denmark. 

Michiel Arts, David De Vleeschouwer, Niels H. Schovsbo, Nicolas Thibault, Arnie T. Nielsen, and Anne-Christine Da Silva

The Silurian (443.8-419.2 million years ago) is a period of important biodiversity changes, dynamic climate change, including strong sea level fluctuations and the development of low-oxygen conditions in the ocean1-2-3. To date the Silurian lacks in (cyclostratigraphic) age constraints and in understanding in the way astronomical cycles modulate the Silurian climate, which hinders our understanding of Silurian climate dynamics. To assess the role of astronomical cycles in the pacing of the Silurian climate, we study the imprint of astronomical cycles on the record of the Sommerode-1 core from Bornholm, Denmark (53.65-118.66m).The core contains a near continuous Telychian record including the SOCIE and Valgu carbon isotope excursions/events4-5-6.  The core was scanned at University of Bremen/ MARUM (November 2021) using the Bruker M4 Tornado µXRF scanner, enabling for a high-resolution cyclostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic study of the Telychian.

XRF core measurements provided semi-quantitative element data, spaced at 0.5 mm, were converted into element concentrations (ppm) using a set of reference standards. A Principal Component Analysis simplified the variability in our dataset into 3 components. PC1 has high loadings for Al, Si, K, Ti, Fe and Co, and is interpreted as a detrital component. PC2 has high loadings for Ca and Mn, and is interpreted as an indicator of oxygenation conditions. PC3 has high loadings for S, indicative for the sulphides/dysoxic/anoxic conditions-8-9.

Peaks for Mn at 69-85m and S at 85-104m, indicate that part of the core (69-85 m) was deposited under oxic conditions while another part of the core (85-104 m) was deposited under anoxic/dysoxic conditions. We note that the transition to oxic conditions at 90 m coincides with the Valgu isotopic event4 while the SOCIE4 (80-70 m) event occurs during oxic conditions. Spectral analysis (wavelet, MTM and Evolutive Harmonic Analysis (EHA)) on the 3 components reveals the imprints of long and short eccentricity, obliquity and precession. An EHA spectra of the detrital component was used to trace the long eccentricity in the depth domain which was used to infer changes in sedimentation rates. The sedimentation rates are used to convert the record from the depth to time domain. Astronomical cycles filtered from the record in the time domain show that astronomical cycles exert a great control on the depositional record.  Indicating the astronomical cycles modulated the Telychian climate which in term paced oxygenation conditions at the sea-floor.

1.Melchin et al. (2005) The Silurian Period 525–558 –

2. Bond & Grasby (2017) Palaeogeogr., Palaeoclim., Palaeoecol. 478, 3–29. –

3. Saltzman (2005) Geology, 33, 7, 573-576. –

4. Hammarlund et al. (2019) Palaeogeogr., Palaeoclim., Palaeoecol. 526, 126–135. –

5. Schovsbo, et al. (2015). Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Bulletin, 33, 9–12.

6. Loydell, D. K., et al. (2017). Bulletin of the Geological Society of Denmark, 65, 135–160.

7. Algeo, T. J., & Maynard, J. B. (2004). Chemical Geology, 206(3–4), 289–318.

8. Ferriday, T., & Montenari, M. (2016). Stratigraphy & Timescales (Vol. 1).

9. Rothwell, R. G., & Croudace, I. W. (2015). Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments. (Vol. 2)

How to cite: Arts, M., De Vleeschouwer, D., Schovsbo, N. H., Thibault, N., Nielsen, A. T., and Da Silva, A.-C.: Astronomical modulation of oxygenation conditions during the Telychian (Silurian) recorded in the Sommerodde-1 core from Bornholm Denmark., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11342, 2022.

EGU22-12044 | Presentations | CL1.1.4

A new conceptual model to explain the mid-Pleistocene transition 

Etienne Legrain, Frédéric Parrenin, and Emilie Capron

Pleistocene climate is primarily driven by changes of the Earth’s orbital parameters. However, the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) (~0.8-1.2Myr) which corresponds to a gradual change of interglacial-glacial cyclicity from weak 40kyr climatic cycles to the current strong 100kyr cycles, remains largely unexplained. So far, models only based on orbital forcing were not capable to reproduce this transition, discarding the hypothesis of an orbitally-driven transition. Internal Earth system climate causes were thus explored as primary drivers of the MPT, as a gradual decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations or the removal of the regolith beneath the northern hemisphere ice sheets. 
Here we present an improved version of the conceptual model of Parrenin and Paillard (2012) modelling ice volume variations over the past 2Myr. Our model switches between two states, a glaciation state and a deglaciation one, following a threshold mechanism related to the input parameters and the modelled ice volume itself. The modelled ice volume is compared to the ice volume reconstructions inferred from paleodata. 
 We reproduced the MPT using three different models. The “orbital” model which only use orbital forcing parameters as input. The “gradual” model, which is similar to the orbital model plus a continuous drop of a physical parameter in addition to orbital forcing parameters. The “abrupt” model, also similar to the orbital model plus a time-determined abrupt variation of a physical parameter in addition to orbital forcing parameters. 
For the first time, our conceptual model is able to simulate qualitatively the Mid-Pleistocene Transition with only changes in the orbital forcing parameters, reproducing the change in frequency and amplitude of the transition. Moreover, the hypothesis of a coupled influence of orbital forcing and a decreasing deglaciation threshold parameter is by far a better hypothesis than considering an abrupt change regarding our model results. In fact, the “gradual” model contains less parameters and a smaller data-model standard deviation of residuals than the “abrupt” model. Orbital forcing could thus have enabled the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. A combined influence with a decreasing parameter, such atmospheric  CO2 concentration, would have triggered this transition.

References 
Parrenin, F., & Paillard, D. (2012). Terminations VI and VIII (∼ 530 and∼ 720 kyr BP) tell us the importance of obliquity and precession in the triggering of deglaciations. Climate of the Past, 8(6), 2031-2037.

How to cite: Legrain, E., Parrenin, F., and Capron, E.: A new conceptual model to explain the mid-Pleistocene transition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12044, 2022.

The paleomagnetic data obtained from the Neoproterozoic rocks stratigraphically related to glacial deposits suggest the ice sheets' near-equatorial occurrence. Based on these data, the Snowball Earth hypothesis proposing the Cryogenian period's total glaciations has been developed and became almost a paradigm. Quaternary glacial successions usually contain varves (seasonally laminated deposits) as they were formed in high latitudes. Therefore, we suggest that varves provide an independent sedimentological test of the paleolatitude position of Precambrian glacial deposits.

We carried out a sedimentological study on thinly laminated rhythmites in the Neoproterozoic glacial deposits in Southern Siberia, and found that they have features characteristic of seasonal varves. The studied rhythmites interstratify the Bolshoi Patom and Nichatka Formations' diamictites at the base of the Dal'nyaya Taiga Group. The seasonality is clearly manifested in the rhythmites of the Nichatka Formation. The rhythmites are represented by interbedding of millimeter-scale siltstones and mudstones with sandy and gravelly admixture. The coarse-sandy and gravelly component is interpreted as ice-rafted clasts, as it has characteristic features of dropstones and contains unconfined till pellets. Ice rafted clasts saturate siltstone laminas and are practically absent in argillite layers.
Thus, argillite laminas can be confidently recognized as deposits of the cold season, during which ice melting and iceberg rafting ceased. On the other hand, siltstone layers with dropstones are deposits of the warmer melting season. The rhythmite's diurnal nature is excluded by its complex structure of the silty layer of the rhythm, which is caused by several sedimentation events separated in time.  The entire set of microfacies of the Nichatka Formation rhythmites reveals similarities with varve microfacies produced by variable flows in ice-contact proglacial lakes. The upper part of the Bolshoi Patom Formation's rhythmites is also formed by varve-like pairs of thin siltstone and mudstone laminas. Dropstones are virtually absent in them, and, therefore, the seasonal nature of the rhythm is less confidently established. The siltstone within the rhythm may have a massive or normally graded texture. The argillite is approximately equal in thickness to the siltstone lamina (about 0.5 mm). The thickness of a pair of siltstone and argillite laminas may remain almost constant when more than 50 pairs are observed. This regularity of laminas thickness in rhythmite is not typical of a tidal setting, but it is difficult to rule out this rhythmite's diurnal nature.  These deposits display high similarity to varves produced by low energy suspension settling during the melt season. The observed seasonal nature of the rhythmites in the glacial deposits of the Dal'nyaya Taiga Group evidence against the validity of the Snowball Earth hypothesis, which assumes the presence of glacial caps near the equator in the Neoproterozoic. The study was supported by RSF Grant No. 20-77-10066.

How to cite: Rud'ko, S. and Shatsillo, A.: Varves versus Snowball: Seasonal rhythmite in the glacial deposits of the Nichatka Formation (South Siberia)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6598, 2022.

EGU22-6669 | Presentations | SSP2.4

Understanding formation of ice wedges and origin of trapped greenhouse gas at Zyryanka, Northeastern Siberia 

Nayeon Ko, Hansu Park, Hyejung Jung, Go Iwahana, Alexander Fedorov, and Jinho Ahn

Multiple geochemical analyses may help us better constrain the ice-wedge formation and in-situ greenhouse gas (GHG) production mechanisms. Here we present new results from ice-wedge ice sampled at Zyryanka, Northeastern Siberia (65°93’N, 150°89’E). The plant remains and CO2 gas were analyzed for 14C dating, and we obtained from 810 to 1750 years before 1950 CE for the Zyryanka ice wedge. δ(N2/Ar) of the ice wedges ranges from -17.51 to -3.53 % with regard to modern air, indicating that the Zyryanka ice wedge was formed by both liquid water and dry snow. On the other hand, the δ(O2/Ar) value of the Zyryanka ice wedges ranges from -72.88 to -37.58 % with regard to modern air, implying oxygen gas was consumed considerably by respiration of microorganisms in the ice-wedge ice. We also observed correlations among the three greenhouse gas species and oxygen gas concentrations. N2O and CO2 concentrations show a strong positive correlation (r = 0.94, p=0.01). We also found that the melting fraction (estimated from N2/Ar) is positively correlated with CO2 (r=0.81, p=0.01) and CH4 (r=0.87, p<0.05). Furthermore, O2 concentration is negatively correlated with the CH4 concentrations (r = -0.41, p<0.05) which may imply that CH4 production is associated with biological oxygen consumption. The δ18O of ice melt ranges from -28.6 to -19.1 ‰ for the ice wedge and adjacent soil samples, showing a symmetric structure with low δ18O values in the ice wedge parts and high in the adjacent soils. Comparing with the δ18O value of modern precipitation in the Zyryanka region, it can be inferred that the ice wedge was mainly formed by filling with cold seasonal precipitation. Our study shows that the gas mixing ratios in ice wedges and water stable isotope analysis may help better understanding the biogeochemical environments during and after the formation of ice wedges.

How to cite: Ko, N., Park, H., Jung, H., Iwahana, G., Fedorov, A., and Ahn, J.: Understanding formation of ice wedges and origin of trapped greenhouse gas at Zyryanka, Northeastern Siberia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6669, 2022.

EGU22-7172 | Presentations | SSP2.4

Deep-time paleoclimate archive in High Arctic, Svalbard, Norway 

Aleksandra Smyrak-Sikora, Lars Eivind Augland, Peter Betlem, Sten-Andreas Grundvåg, William Helland-Hansen, Mads E. Jelby, Maria A. Jensen, Malte M. Jochmann, Erik P. Johanessen, Morgan T. Jones, Maayke Koevoets-Westerduin, Gareth S. Lord, Atle Mørk, Snorre Olaussen, Sverre Planke, Kim Senger, Lars Stemmerik, Madeleine Vickers, Kasia K Śliwińska, and Valentin Zuchuat

An appraisal of ancient Earth’s climate dynamics is crucial for understanding the modern climate system and predicting how this might change in the future. Major climate-shift events in the Earth’s past demonstrate the scale, duration and response of the climate system to various global and local climate stressors.   

More than 650 million years of deep-time paleoclimate changes are archived in the sedimentary succession of Svalbard; an archipelago located in the Norwegian High Arctic. The excellently outcropping geological successions of Svalbard date back to the Proterozoic, and record both temporal and spatial changing climatic and environmental conditions strongly linked to the northward continental drift of the archipelago from southern hemisphere in Precambrian to its present-day Polar latitudes.

The oldest deposits that record major climatic events and associated environmental perturbations in Svalbard include tillites related to several Cryogenian glacial events and the overlying Ediacaran carbonates. The Lower Paleozoic succession documents episodes of marine biodiversification, including the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE), which is linked to cooling of previously warm tropical oceans. The arid to semi-arid climate of the Devonian promoted a terrestrial plant diversification. The Lower Carboniferous coal-bearing strata were deposited in humid and tropical climate settings prevailing in northern Pangea. The Upper Carboniferous-Lower Permian succession consists of interbedded carbonates, evaporites and red siliciclastics, including remains of paleokarst. The continued northward drift into subtropical latitudes promoted a change back to arid to semi-arid climates, occurring during the overall global icehouse conditions. During the Late Permian, marine sponges were occupying most of the ecological niches, leading to the deposition of weathering-resistant spiculites. But these ecosystems were rapidly and dramatically impacted by the End Permian Mass Extinction (EPME), which lasted well into the Early Triassic.

By the Mesozoic, Svalbard was approaching mid-latitudes. The exposed in Svalbard deposits of Triassic mega-delta features evidence for a temperate or humid climate, indicated by thick coal beds that transitioned to an arid climatic environment at the end of the Triassic and Early Jurassic succession with caliche and calcareous soil profiles. The Lower Cretaceous strata (deposited at c. 66 °N) record several cold snaps despite the overall greenhouse climate characterizing the period and most notably the global crisis associated with the Aptian oceanic anoxic event 1a (OAE1a).

By the Paleogene, Svalbard had reached Arctic latitudes, and as characterised by overall moderate to warm temperate climate, punctuated by warming episodes, including the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal maximum (PETM). The Neogene cooling is missing from onshore records, but high-resolution glacial climate evidence exists offshore and from geomorphology and unconsolidated strata of Late Quaternary-Holocene age.

In this contribution, we synthesize former and ongoing studies of deep-time paleoclimate in Svalbard and provide knowledge gaps to optimize the use of Svalbard as an archive for deep-time paleoclimate research. The exceptional exposures, accessibility, and completeness of the 650 million long sedimentary records makes Svalbard unique archive for deep-time paleoclimate research. In addition to Svalbard’s excellent outcrops, fully cored research and coal exploration boreholes provide an excellent foundation for further research with minimal environmental consequences.

How to cite: Smyrak-Sikora, A., Augland, L. E., Betlem, P., Grundvåg, S.-A., Helland-Hansen, W., Jelby, M. E., Jensen, M. A., Jochmann, M. M., Johanessen, E. P., Jones, M. T., Koevoets-Westerduin, M., Lord, G. S., Mørk, A., Olaussen, S., Planke, S., Senger, K., Stemmerik, L., Vickers, M., Śliwińska, K. K., and Zuchuat, V.: Deep-time paleoclimate archive in High Arctic, Svalbard, Norway, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7172, 2022.

EGU22-7286 | Presentations | SSP2.4

First quantitative constraints on the Pliensbachian-Toarcian warming in polar regions 

Thomas Letulle, Guillaume Suan, Mikhail Rogov, Mathieu Daëron, Arnauld Vinçon-Laugier, Oleg Lutikov, Bruno Reynard, Gilles Montagnac, and Christophe Lécuyer

One of the most dramatic warming episodes of the Mesozoic occurred near the Pliensbachian-Toarcian transition (Early Jurassic). The occurrence of abundant exotic clasts and glendonites in marine strata of Siberia suggests cold conditions during the late Pliensbachian, which may have led to the episodic growth of high latitude ice-sheets. These conditions ended abruptly during the early Toarcian when temperature rose rapidly across an episode of global biogeochemical perturbation known as the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE). The rapid marine transgression coinciding with the T-OAE onset has been tentatively attributed to the rapid demise of these polar ice-sheets, which possibly released large amounts of methane in the atmosphere through permafrost thawing. Nevertheless, the scarce quantitative estimates of Pliensbachian-Toarcian temperatures have exclusively been obtained from low paleolatitude sites. Plus, existing temperature records are mostly based on oxygen isotope thermometry and hence remain equivocal in the absence of constraints on the ocean oxygen composition of Pliensbachian-Toarcian oceans and its temporal variability. Clumped isotope (Δ47) data from aragonite bivalve shells from one NE Siberian site have recently provided the first quantitative evidence for extreme Toarcian polar warmth, with marine temperature estimates exceeding ~15°C north of the Anabar shield. In this study, we present new Δ47 data from bivalve samples from Tyung River, south of the Anabar shield that allow to substantially expand this record both spatially and temporally. Clumped isotope data from aragonite shells confirm elevated marine temperatures (~13°C) at the end of the T-OAE in polar areas some 850 km away from the previous record. Upper Pliensbachian calcite shells of Harpax collected from coastal to deltaic, boulder-bearing deposits of a nearby site record much lower temperature (~3°C) and extreme 18O-depletion of environmental waters (δ18O = -6.5‰VSMOW). These results provide the first quantitative evidence for near-freezing polar temperatures during the Late Pliensbachian, which is a key prerequisite for the hypothesis of episodic ice-sheet growth prior to the T-OAE. Beyond glacio-eustasy, our new data offer a rare glimpse of extreme changes in polar temperatures across a transition from coldhouse to greenhouse climate and will certainly prove useful for future earth system simulations of Mesozoic climates. 

How to cite: Letulle, T., Suan, G., Rogov, M., Daëron, M., Vinçon-Laugier, A., Lutikov, O., Reynard, B., Montagnac, G., and Lécuyer, C.: First quantitative constraints on the Pliensbachian-Toarcian warming in polar regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7286, 2022.

EGU22-7362 | Presentations | SSP2.4

Early Triassic Cycling of Pyrogenic Carbon in Northern High Latitudes 

Franziska R. Blattmann, Zoneibe A. S. Luz, Torsten Vennemann, Hugo Bucher, Elke Schneebeli-Hermann, and Clayton R. Magill

The Permian-Triassic mass extinction (PTME) is considered to be the most severe extinction in Earth’s history. Following this extinction, the Early Triassic is known as an interval of divergent biotic recovery patterns, with several periods of unfavorable environmental conditions as suggested by global fluctuations in carbon isotope compositions of both organic and inorganic carbon reservoirs (e.g., Payne et al., 2004; Galfetti et al., 2007). Despite these global carbon isotope excursions, little is known about the evolution of the organic carbon cycle. The aim of this study is to improve our understanding of long-term organic carbon cycle dynamics, in particular the influence of pyrogenic carbon. Initial results for the Smithian and Spathian from sections sampled in Svalbard show an increase of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during the Spathian. Particularly, phenanthrene and anthracene concentrations increase amid the Smithian-Spathian boundary (SSB). These increases coincide with increased d18Ophosphate values (approx. 14 ‰ to 17 ‰) measured for conodonts in the same locality and are suggestive of a rapid cooling at the SSB. Global temperature decline in the late Smithian would decrease corresponding precipitation intensities, particularly in high latitude regions (Goudemand et al. 2019). Decreasing precipitation intensity generates much less runoff that, in turn, is associated with increases in wildfire activity in high latitude regions (Grosse et al. 2011). Increased wildfire activity may have contributed to increased atmospheric pCO2 levels. In contrast, incomplete combustion of organic matter would also form a recalcitrant terrestrial organic carbon pool, which could act as a carbon sink.

How to cite: Blattmann, F. R., Luz, Z. A. S., Vennemann, T., Bucher, H., Schneebeli-Hermann, E., and Magill, C. R.: Early Triassic Cycling of Pyrogenic Carbon in Northern High Latitudes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7362, 2022.

EGU22-8394 | Presentations | SSP2.4

Holocene environmental changes inferred from pollen record of Nordenskiöld Land alluvium sequences (West Spitsbergen Island): new data and review 

Diana Soloveva, Sergei Verkulich, Larisa Savelieva, and Aleksey Petrov

The central part of West Spitsbergen, Nordenskiöld Land, is characterized by comparably small extension of glaciers, high landscape diversity and the long-term development of river valleys. In doing so the number of objects suitable for paleobotanical, in particular, palynological research is limited. Holocene climate and vegetation in numerous studies were reconstructed by using palaeobotanical data from lake sediments and peat sequences. Fluvial sediments are widespread and include both terrigenous and organic deposits, but studies focussing on alluvium archives are rare. Such records relate to Coles and Gröndalen valleys.

During the researches of the Russian Arctic expedition in the Svalbard archipelago in 2019, the outcrop of marine sediments overlain by an alluvial stratum (with a general thickness of 4.2 m) was found and studied on the right slope of Semmeldalen valley (16 m a.s.l.). The sediments are represented by sand and silt with Mytilus edulis shells in situ (0.2 m), which are covered by gravel-pebble material (2.0 m), followed by stratum of interlayered silt, sand, loam with plant remains lenses and layers (2.0 m). The laboratory studies included radiocarbon dating and pollen analysis. Radiocarbon dating results show that the studied deposits were formed in the period from 9300 to 3500 cal BP.

According to pollen data, six stages of vegetation and climate changes were distinguished.  The first stage - about 9300 - 9000 cal. BP corresponds to the stage of sedimentation in a shallow sea bay under relatively favourable environmental conditions. The deposits contain rare microfossils of poorly preserved shrub forms. The almost total absence of Quaternary pollen and a spore in the second stage - gravel-pebble sequence - reflects a high rate of sedimentation in the river mouth during sea regression.  About 8700 cal BP (stage 3) the subshrub-sedge tundra developed in a relatively warm and humid climate. Following (about 8300 cal BP) it changed by the willow-sedge tundra (stage 4). The low content of microfossils at this stage is evidence of an increase in river runoff and, probably, an increase in the amount of atmospheric precipitation. Most probably study records contain a hiatus in sedimentation between 8000 - 4000 cal BP. The fifth stage is the increase in pollen amount and development of the willow-motley-grass tundra. The sixth stage reflects modern vegetation - willow-grass tundra.

The obtained dates and lithology description allow us to make a preliminary conclusion that a sharp decrease in sea level occurred about 9000 cal BP, thereby determining a radical restructuring of the natural environment of the study area. Preliminary results compared with published data show that there are local differences in valley development and environmental conditions changes in Central Svalbard during the Holocene.

How to cite: Soloveva, D., Verkulich, S., Savelieva, L., and Petrov, A.: Holocene environmental changes inferred from pollen record of Nordenskiöld Land alluvium sequences (West Spitsbergen Island): new data and review, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8394, 2022.

EGU22-10379 | Presentations | SSP2.4 | Highlight

A seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial 

Flor Vermassen, Matt O'Regan, Agatha de Boer, Gabriel West, and Helen K. Coxall

The extent of Arctic sea-ice during the Last Interglacial is poorly known. Climate models and sediment-based reconstructions generally suggest a relatively extensive ice cover, comparable to the modern day. Here, we show that Arctic sea-ice was much more reduced than previously assumed, with summers being ice-free. Our new evidence stems from a series of central Arctic Ocean sediment cores, including sites that underlie the thickest parts of the modern Arctic ice pack. Microfossil analysis reveals that the Arctic Ocean was invaded by Turborotalita quinqueloba, a typically subpolar planktonic foraminifer that is strongly associated with chilled Atlantic waters in the modern North Atlantic Ocean, and which is absent in modern sediments in the central Arctic Ocean. Given that the modern Arctic Ocean is characterised by a pronounced halocline with Atlantic waters subducting beneath a fresh and cool upper water mass, our findings suggest a shallowing of those Atlantic waters in the Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial. This process, dubbed ‘atlantification’, would be associated with retreating sea-ice, allowing T. quinqueloba to invade. Since the onset of the atlantification of the Arctic Ocean in response to climate change is increasingly being reported, we suggest that the Last Interglacial may serve as an important analogue for studying a fully-atlantified, seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean.

 

How to cite: Vermassen, F., O'Regan, M., de Boer, A., West, G., and Coxall, H. K.: A seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10379, 2022.

EGU22-11180 | Presentations | SSP2.4

Identification and characterization of vegetation loss during the last 50,000 years in Beringia 

Jeremy Courtin, Inger Alsos, Boris Biskaborn, Bernhard Diekmann, Yongsong Huang, Youri Lammers, Martin Melles, Luidmila Pestryakova, Luise Schulte, Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring, and Ulrike Herzschuh

Ongoing climate change causes a global biodiversity loss and species extinction by reducing population size and decreasing genetic diversity. Massive extinction events happened in the past with the Megafauna extinction as the latest example. The Pleistocene-Holocene transition also witnessed the loss of the broadly established steppe-tundra biota, spanning most of Northern Hemisphere during the Pleistocene and supporting Pleistocene megafauna at the time. Understanding past extinction events via the investigation of Quaternary records can strengthen the current methods to forecast the effects of global warming on ecosystems. If loss of other organism groups were proportional to what has been shown for mammals, a large part of the Pleistocene steppe-tundra biota might have gone extinct. However, few example are known. The improved taxonomic resolution and high detectability of sedimentary ancient DNA provide a new tool to explore this. Here, we investigate potential plant taxa loss in the Northern Hemisphere between the late Pleistocene-Holocene transition using sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. We summarized data from 500 samples comprising nine lake sediment cores from North-East-Asia and North-America spanning the last 50.000 years. Using patterns of past plant diversity (appearance-disappearance through time), we built communities to detect past taxa non-present in modern databases inferring potential candidates for extinction. Our results suggest that vegetation was resilient until the Pleistocene to Holocene transition and that loss appeared in parallel to the Megafauna extinction. Finally, we characterized this vegetation loss and identified that more specialist taxa contributing less to beta diversity are more sensitive to potential extinction than other taxa. This work holds great potential to reveal new insights into the evolution of the fragile boreal plant communities and the processes leading to extinction of species.

How to cite: Courtin, J., Alsos, I., Biskaborn, B., Diekmann, B., Huang, Y., Lammers, Y., Melles, M., Pestryakova, L., Schulte, L., Stoof-Leichsenring, K., and Herzschuh, U.: Identification and characterization of vegetation loss during the last 50,000 years in Beringia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11180, 2022.

EGU22-11379 | Presentations | SSP2.4

Stratigraphy of the Late Paleozoic Ice Age glacial sequences in Tasmania (Australia): implications for the glaciation in southern Gondwana 

Luca Zurli, Gianluca Cornamusini, Giovanni Pio Liberato, and Paolo Conti

The Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA) in one of the coldest periods in the Earth history which led to the development of ice covers across the entire Gondwana from Carboniferous to Permian. The LPIA view is changing from a single ice sheet covering the entire Gondwana to a series of small and diachronous ice caps widespread through the supercontinent. Stratigraphic studies and facies analysis are key tools for the evaluation of the paleo-environmental depositional setting and, consequently, of the style of glaciation.

Tasmania is a key region because it was settled between northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) and Australia and the LPIA deposits could help to provide links between the two sectors of Gondwana. Tasmania constituted a sedimentary basin in the late Paleozoic and Mesozoic and thick sedimentary sequence, both marine and terrestrial, known as Parmeener Supergroup, crops out. The lowermost part of the Lower Parmeener Supergroup, consisting in the Wynyard Tillite and its correlative throughout the region, recorded glacial sedimentation linked with ice caps that developed in the region.

Here, we provide a detailed sedimentological analysis of two drillcores which recovered glacial sequences deposited in the Tasman Basin. The cores were placed into two separate sub-basins: the first hole, named Ross 1, is located in the central part of Tasmania and recorded ca. 60m of glaciogenic rocks of the Stockers Tillite; the second, named Cygnet 3, is located in the southern part of the island and recorded ca. 200m of glaciogenic rocks belonging to the Truro Tillite. The centimetric scale sedimentological analyses allow the identification of 14 lithofacies which were grouped into 6 facies association on the basis of depositional genesis. Facies associations vary from possibly sub-glacial or ice contact to ice distal. Deposition is dominated both by gravity and sediment remobilization processes and suspension settling with ice rafted debris accumulation. All of them are indicative of subaqueous deposition, likely glacimarine. Moreover, along the succession the glacial sequence stratigraphy approach was applied and glacial system tracts and bounding surfaces which define glacial sequences were identified. The stacking pattern of the facies associations allow to demonstrate that the glacial sequences record phases of advance and retreat of the glacial front into the basin within the main end of the main glacial phase. The facies associations, mainly interpreted as gravity driven deposits, together with the thin thickness, show that Ross 1 core was located in a basin margin position and that possibly recorded sub-glacial erosion, while Cygnet 3 core, which have greater thickness, shows facies associations mainly related with suspension settling, indicating a more basinal position. Petrographic analysis of the gravel size fraction constituting the diamictite and the ice rafted debris shows difference in the lithological composition of the two formations, sustaining the hypothesis that the sub-basins were fed by different ice caps.

How to cite: Zurli, L., Cornamusini, G., Liberato, G. P., and Conti, P.: Stratigraphy of the Late Paleozoic Ice Age glacial sequences in Tasmania (Australia): implications for the glaciation in southern Gondwana, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11379, 2022.

EGU22-11897 | Presentations | SSP2.4

Uneven preservation of ancient DNA along lake sediment cores: A case study of high-latitude and high-elevation lakes 

Weihan Jia, Ugur Cabuk, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Inger G. Alsos, Youri Lammers, Boris K. Biskaborn, and Ulrike Herzschuh

Although sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) is increasingly used to reconstruct past ecosystem changes, we do not yet know much about its preservation conditions across geological time, resulting in potential biases and uncertainties in data interpretation. In this study, we obtained sedaDNA records from around 15 lakes from the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions and the Tibetan Plateau covering the last 2 to 80 ka BP. In addition to the four preservation proxies recently introduced by Jia et al. (2021) (https://doi.org/10.1002/edn3.259), some new potential proxies of plant DNA metabarcoding (e.g., dissimilarity between PCR replicates) and metagenomics (e.g., average DNA fragment length, duplication rate, guanine-cytosine content, and deamination rate) have also been applied to quantify the extent of ancient DNA preservation and compared with other environmental proxy records from the cores. So far, our preliminary results from Lake Ilirney (67°21’N, 168°19’E) show that DNA content generally decreases along the core over the last 18 ka BP and then maintains at a relatively stable level up to the bottom of the core (ca. 53.4 ka BP), which is consistent with the variations in lake organic productivity reflected by TC, TOC, TOC/TN, pollen and diatom abundance, and Br. In addition, sedaDNA preservation conditions revealed by our preservation proxies are variable within the core. Good sedaDNA preservation is associated with strong physical weathering and glacial abrasion in the catchment, as indicated by high K/Ti and low Zr/Rb values, resulting in increased clastic input of clay minerals and fine sediments, which favors the adsorption of DNA molecules to sediment particles. This process might also help to deepen the lake and increase its water conductivity, which is beneficial for DNA adsorption and preservation. No clear correlation is found between sedaDNA preservation and paleoclimatic changes reconstructed by fossil pollen records. It should be noted that our results may also be influenced by the ability of the DNA extraction protocols we used to recover DNA from different types of sediments. To conclude, sedaDNA preservation may be highly influenced by sediment type and catchment erosion rate, and glacial lakes appear to be promising for sedaDNA studies in the future. Further analyses of sedaDNA records from other lakes are pending and will be finalized and presented at EGU 2022.

How to cite: Jia, W., Cabuk, U., R. Stoof-Leichsenring, K., G. Alsos, I., Lammers, Y., K. Biskaborn, B., and Herzschuh, U.: Uneven preservation of ancient DNA along lake sediment cores: A case study of high-latitude and high-elevation lakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11897, 2022.

EGU22-12021 | Presentations | SSP2.4

A rare record of late Neogene glaciation from the north east Greenland margin 

Paul Knutz, Tove Nielsen, Kasia Sliwinska, Michael Fyhn, John Hopper, Anne Jennings, Paul Bierman, Andrew Christ, Lee Corbett, and Alan Hidy

Studies based on deep ocean drilling cores points to North-East Greenland as a focal point for ice sheet accumulation incurring much earlier than the Pleistocene Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The build-up of marine-based ice sheets in these parts is critical to the cooling of the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean, considered as a pre-condition for the modern ocean “conveyor belt” circulation. However, proximal sedimentary records that can shed light on the timing and climate background of early Greenland Ice Sheet evolution are lacking. In 2008 a series of shallow cores were drilled by the Kanumas consortium on the NorthEast Greenland shelf and Cenozoic sediments were recovered at several sites. Here we present litho- and palynostratigraphic information, along with new cosmogenic isotope results, of a 110 m long sediment core (Kanumas 13). The core study, supported by regional seismic data, suggests that ice streams may have been active on the North-East Greenland margin since middle-late Miocene. Geochemistry and magnetic susceptibility data indicate that an abrupt change in sediment source occurred at 50.8 m. The shift in provenance is accompanied by a transition to more open marine conditions. The implications for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Artic climate development will be addressed in the presentation.

How to cite: Knutz, P., Nielsen, T., Sliwinska, K., Fyhn, M., Hopper, J., Jennings, A., Bierman, P., Christ, A., Corbett, L., and Hidy, A.: A rare record of late Neogene glaciation from the north east Greenland margin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12021, 2022.

The Eocene bryozoans reveal a spectacular diversification in the stratigraphical column of the LMF, Seymour Island, showing a great variation in the colony growth-forms and taxonomy enhanced by a great radiation of a new taxa (Hara 2001).

The very base of the sandy, transgressive series in the lowermost part of the LMF (Telm1) includes loosely encrusting (membraniporiform), and unizooidal, flexible articulated or rooted colonies (catenicelliform), which are either taxonomically and morphologically different from the overlying fauna. At present such bryozoans are widely distributed in the tropical-warm temperate latitudes particularly deposited in the shallow-water settings (Hara 2015).

The massive, hemisperical cerioporine cyclostomes, reminiscent of the Cretaceous in the Northern Hemisphere and differently-shaped multilamellar cheilostomes represented by numerous new taxa are dominant biota in the lower part of Telm1-2 (Hara 2001, 2002).

The free-living lunulitiform, disc-shaped colonies, which occur in the middle part of the LMF (Telm4-Telm5), are characteristic for the warm, shallow-self environment with a temperature range of 10 to 29°C. Environmentally, lunulitids are absent when the bottom sediments is lower than 10-12°C. At present they inhabit the circumpolar to warm-temperate waters (Hara et al. 2018). They have bimineralic skeletons, with the traces of aragonite, which is indicative for the temperate shelf environment, sandy and often shifting substrate.

The bryozoans from the upper part of the LMF (Telm6-Telm7) are scarce, either represented by in-situ lepraliomorph biostrome layer up to 5 cm thick or poorly-preserved sole fragments of the bryozoans associated with penguins and fish remains.

Changes in the biotic composition of the diversified bryozoan biota of the late early Eocene-late Eocene in the stratigraphical column of the LMF mark a distinct environmental and climatic events, referred to EECO, MECO, and EOT for the upper part of this formation.

The isotopic δ18O analyses of the bryozoan skeletons from the lower part of the La Meseta Fm. show the temperature range from 13.4°C to 14.6°C (according to the equation given by Anderson & Arthur 1983; unpublished Hara 2021; what is consistent with isotopic data of other marine macrofaunal fossil records (see Ivany et al. 2008).

Anderson T.F., and Arthur M.A.1983. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon and their application to sedimentologic and paleoenvironmental problems. SEPM Short Course, 10: 1-151.

Hara U. 2001. Bryozoans from the Eocene of Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula. Palaeontologia Polonica 60: 33-155.

Hara U., 2002. A new macroporid bryozoan from Eocene of Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, Polish Polar Research, 23: 213-225.

Hara U. 2015. Bryozoan internal moulds from the La Meseta Formation (Eocene) of Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula. Polish Polar Research, 36: 25-49.

Hara U., Mors T., Hagstrom J. & Reguero M. A., 2018. Eocene bryozoans assemblages from the La Meseta Formation of Seymour Island. Geological Quarterly, 62: 705-728.  

Ivany L.C., Lohmann K. C. Hasiuk F., Blake D.B., Glass A., Aronson R.B., & Moody R.M. 2008. Eocene climate record of the high southern latitude continental shelf: Seymour Island, Antarctica. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 120: 659-678.

 

How to cite: Hara, U.: Evolution of the Antarctic bryozoan biota as a response to environmental and climatic changes: (Eocene, La Meseta Formation, Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12131, 2022.

EGU22-12387 | Presentations | SSP2.4

Late Holocene permafrost development triggers hydrological and geochemical changes in subarctic peatlands (Abisko, 68ºN) 

Olga Margalef, Oriol Grau, Hans Joosten, Aaron Pérez Haase, Sergi Pla Rabes, Pere Roc Fernández, Santiago Giralt, Marc Sánchez, Ramon Pérez Obiol, Joan Manuel Soriano, Albert Pèlachs, Sara Campderrós, Cristina Fernández Alarcón, and Josep Peñuelas

Palsa mires are a common feature in the Subarctic zone of discontinuous permafrost. In these peatlands, the patchy distribution of frozen soil constrains relief, water regime and vegetation distribution. Because they lie at the edge of permafrost distribution, palsa mires are very sensitive to climate changes and become extremely valuable high-latitude terrestrial records. However, both (1) their origin, including their rapid development towards ombrotrophy because of uplift by ice accretion and (2) the irreversible geochemical effects of collapse and permafrost thaw make them challenging environmental archives. Understanding the Late Holocene evolution of these systems becomes a key framework to decipher potential consequences of the permafrost disappearance observed during the last decades. A 120 cm peat record was recovered on the Storflaket Palsa plateau (Abisko, Sweden, 68ºN) on June 2018.  This register contains more than 9000 years of paleoenvironmental information and was entirely made of peat, with two centimetric layers of volcanic ash interbedded at 74-77 and 46-47cm depth. A multidisciplinary approach using chemical (stoichiometry, stable isotopy and elemental composition) and biological proxies (macrofossil and pollen determination) was used to reconstruct the environmental evolution of the site. Bottom most layers (50-120cm) were characterized by peat made of different types of brown mosses and abundant aquatic fauna indicating that the area was covered by a high and stable water table that promoted organic matter accumulation in a percolation mire system. The very high accumulation rates and the extremely good preservation of macrofossil remains suggest a permafrost free area around 8000 cal yr BP. From 50 to 9 cm the peat is made of highly degraded brown moss, with increasing degradation towards the top. Chemical and macrofossil analyses indicate a strong oxidation processes due to peat exposition. The top layer (9 to 0 cm) is characterized by dry palsa peat and depicts very low accumulation rates, suggesting that this record is capturing the uplift movement of the peat mound by ice accretion and a shift from a minerotrophic and waterlogged mire system towards the development of a palsa plateau. Chemical and biological signals allow us to date the age of permafrost establishment later than 3000 cal. yr BP. The deposition of ash layers is linked to sudden inputs of phosphorus and metals leading to stoichiometric changes in peat composition.

How to cite: Margalef, O., Grau, O., Joosten, H., Pérez Haase, A., Pla Rabes, S., Fernández, P. R., Giralt, S., Sánchez, M., Pérez Obiol, R., Soriano, J. M., Pèlachs, A., Campderrós, S., Fernández Alarcón, C., and Peñuelas, J.: Late Holocene permafrost development triggers hydrological and geochemical changes in subarctic peatlands (Abisko, 68ºN), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12387, 2022.

EGU22-12640 | Presentations | SSP2.4

An organic geochemical reconstruction of North American temperature gradients over the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary 

Lauren O'Connor, Rhodri Jerrett, Greg Price, Bart van Dongen, Emily Crampton-Flood, and Sabine Lengger

Latitudinal temperature gradients are a critical component of the climate system and control the transport of heat and moisture. However, this process is poorly understood during past intervals of extreme greenhouse climate, in particular owing to models suggesting that gradients must be much steeper than proxy data imply. Palaeotemperature records Late Cretaceous–Early Paleogene can provide insight into how the global climate system operates under greenhouse conditions.

Much of our understanding of palaeotemperatures and gradients therein during this interval comes from marine sea-surface temperature proxy data, with very few terrestrial records. These palaeoclimate reconstructions are hampered by poor temporal resolution, difficulties in correlating between sites, and limited spatial coverage.

Lipids from fossil peats across North America provide an opportunity to investigate terrestrial palaeotemperatures across the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary and how these differ across a range of latitudes. Here we present a mean annual air temperature record spanning this interval from the Canadian High Arctic (~75°N palaeolatitude). Our data show that temperatures ranged from 0–18°C, compared with 13–27°C at contemporaneous peat-accumulating sites in Saskatchewan (~60°N palaeolatitude). These data indicate a temperature gradient of approximately 10°C. These values are similar to those modelled for the latest Cretaceous, and the latitudinal difference is comparable to the modern gradient across North America (UCAR), albeit ~20°C warmer.

Our study demonstrates that although the Arctic experienced high terrestrial temperatures, the K-Pg interval saw a well-defined latitudinal temperature gradient. Further, our reconstructions fill an existing gap in the terrestrial record and highlight the value of fossil peats in palaeoclimate studies.

How to cite: O'Connor, L., Jerrett, R., Price, G., van Dongen, B., Crampton-Flood, E., and Lengger, S.: An organic geochemical reconstruction of North American temperature gradients over the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12640, 2022.

EGU22-530 | Presentations | CR4.1

The last deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet (21,000 - 8,000 yr BP): a sensitivity study to PMIP3/PMIP4 coupled atmosphere-ocean models outputs 

Victor van Aalderen, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, and Aurélien Quiquet

Rapid sea-level rise, due to melting and destabilization of present-day ice sheets will likely have important consequences on human societies. Observations provide evidences of increased mass loss in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) over the recent decades, partly due to ocean warming. Despite improvements in both climate and ice-sheet models, there are still significant uncertainties about the future of West Antarctica, due, in part, to our misunderstanding of the process responsible for the marine ice sheet evolution. Paleoclimate studies provide important information on ice-sheet collapse in a warming world.

Our study is based on the Eurasian Ice Sheet (EIS) complex, including the British Island Ice Sheet (BIIS), the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) and the Barents Kara Ice Sheet (BKIS). Because large parts of both the BKIS and the WAIS are marine-based, the BKIS at the LGM can be considered as a potential analogue to the WAIS.

To improve our understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the EIS retreat, we performed transient simulations of the last EIS deglaciation (21 000 – 8 000 yr BP) with the GRISLI ice sheet model forced by 5 PMIP3/PMIP4 models, and two transients GCM models, TRACE21K and iLOVECLIM. Our main goal is to investigate the sensitivity of the EIS grounding line retreat to climate forcing, sea-level rise and glaciological processes with a focus on the BKIS evolution during the deglaciation and the behaviour of the large Bjornoyrenna ice stream.  

How to cite: van Aalderen, V., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., and Quiquet, A.: The last deglaciation of the Eurasian ice sheet (21,000 - 8,000 yr BP): a sensitivity study to PMIP3/PMIP4 coupled atmosphere-ocean models outputs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-530, 2022.

EGU22-1501 | Presentations | CR4.1

Hysteresis and orbital pacing of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet 

Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix

The early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet has grown non-linearly to a continental-scale ice sheet close to the Eocene-Oligocene boundary when environmental conditions were favourable. These favourable conditions included the movement of the continent towards the South Pole, the thermal isolation of the Antarctic continent and declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  Once the threshold for ice sheet growth was reached, a series of positive feedbacks led to the formation of a continental-scale ice sheet.

The thresholds for growth and decline of a continental scale ice sheet are different. The ice sheet state is dependent on the initial conditions, an effect called hysteresis. Here we present the hysteresis behaviour of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet for different bedrock elevation reconstructions. The ice sheet-climate coupler CLISEMv1.0 is used and captures both the height-mass balance and the ice-albedo feedback accurately. Additionally, the influence of the different orbital parameters on the threshold to glaciation and deglaciation is investigated in detail. It appears that the long-term eccentricity cycle has a significant influence on the ice sheet growth and decline and is able to pace the ice sheet evolution for constant CO2 concentration close to the glaciation threshold.

How to cite: Van Breedam, J., Huybrechts, P., and Crucifix, M.: Hysteresis and orbital pacing of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1501, 2022.

EGU22-1635 | Presentations | CR4.1

The role of the Laurentide ice-sheet topography in the Alpine hydro-climate at glacial times 

Patricio Velasquez, Martina Messmer, and Christoph C. Raible

In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to changes of the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS). Bridging the scale gap by using a chain of global and regional climate models, we perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Marine Isotope Stage 4. In winter, we find wetter conditions in the southern part of the Alps during glacial conditions compared to present day, to which dynamical processes, i.e.  changes in the wind speed and direction, substantially contribute. During summer, we find the expected drier conditions in most of the Alpine region during glacial conditions, as thermodynamics suggests drier conditions under lower temperatures. The sensitivity simulations of the LIS changes show that an increase of the ice-sheet thickness leads to a significant intensification of glacial Alpine hydro-climate conditions, which is mainly explained by dynamical processes. The findings demonstrate that the Laurentide ice-sheet topography plays an important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and thus permits a better understanding of the precipitation patterns in the complex Alpine terrain at glacial times.

How to cite: Velasquez, P., Messmer, M., and Raible, C. C.: The role of the Laurentide ice-sheet topography in the Alpine hydro-climate at glacial times, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1635, 2022.

EGU22-1774 | Presentations | CR4.1

Reconstruction of the Patagonian Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum using numerical modelling and geological constraints 

Franco Retamal-Ramírez, Andrés Castillo, Jorge Bernales, and Irina Rogozhina

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 23,000 to 19,000 years ago), the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) covered the central chain of the Andes between ~ 38 °S to 55 °S. From limited paleoclimatic evidence, especially that derived from glacial landforms, it becomes clear that maximum ice sheet expansions in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres were not synchronized. However, large uncertainties still exist in the timing of the onset of regional deglaciation as well as its major drivers. Ice sheet modelling combined with glacial geochronology and paleoclimate reconstructions can provide important information on the PIS geometry, ice volume and its contribution to the sea level low during the LGM. It can also help to test different paleoclimate scenarios and identify climate models that capture regional climate responses to the global change in a realistic manner.

Here we present an ensemble of numerical simulations of the PIS during the LGM with an aim to constrain the most likely LGM climate conditions that can explain the reconstructed geometry of the PIS in a satisfactory manner. The PIS model is driven by the climate forcing that fuse near-surface air temperatures and precipitation rates from the ERA5 reanalysis with the paleoclimate model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2 and PMIP3) and the in-house Community Earth System Model (CESM) experiments. Our analysis suggests a strong dependence of the PIS geometry on the near-surface air temperature forcing. All the ensemble experiments designed with PMIP and in-house CESM experiments fail to reproduce the ice sheet extent between 38 and 42 °S. The most realistic performance for the LGM ice sheet extents south of 38 °S has been derived using those climate models that have a higher spatial resolution. The latter helps these models to capture regional climate conditions in a more physically consistent manner. It should be kept in mind that this analysis is based on the evaluation of the modelled ice sheet extents only, as geological evidence on the former ice sheet thickness is still scarce. Nevertheless, it can be shown that a realistic ice sheet geometry during the LGM is consistent with a regional decrease in air temperature of 7 to 12 °C and an increase in precipitation of 400 to 1500 mm/year along the western sectors of the PIS.

How to cite: Retamal-Ramírez, F., Castillo, A., Bernales, J., and Rogozhina, I.: Reconstruction of the Patagonian Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum using numerical modelling and geological constraints, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1774, 2022.

EGU22-2516 | Presentations | CR4.1

Coupled Greenland ice sheet-climate simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) 

Heiko Goelzer, Petra Langebroek, and Andreas Born

Long-term simulations of ice sheets and their interaction with the climate system require the application of Earth system models with interactive ice sheet components. To this end we present the first experiments performed with the CMIP6-type Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) including a Greenland ice sheet model component. We present our coupling and modelling strategy, which builds on earlier work with the Community Earth System Model and show first results for two NorESM2 version with different resolution of the atmospheric component. We have performed and analyzed pre-industrial spinup and control experiments, historical runs and future projections under scenario ssp585, following the ISMIP6 protocol.

How to cite: Goelzer, H., Langebroek, P., and Born, A.: Coupled Greenland ice sheet-climate simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2516, 2022.

EGU22-2829 | Presentations | CR4.1

Net effect of ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions reduces simulated transient Miocene Antarctic ice sheet variability 

Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D.W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S.W. van de Wal, and Edward G.W. Gasson

Benthic δ18O levels vary strongly during the warmer-than-modern early- and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), suggesting a dynamic Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). So far, however, realistic simulations of the Miocene AIS have been limited to equilibrium states under different CO2 levels and orbital settings. Earlier transient simulations lacked ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions, and used a present-day rather than Miocene Antarctic bedrock topography. Here, we quantify the effect of ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions, running IMAU-ICE using climate forcing from Miocene simulations by the general circulation model GENESIS. Utilising a recently developed matrix interpolation method enables us to interpolate the climate forcing based on CO2 levels (between 280 and 840 ppm) as well as varying ice sheet configurations (between no ice and a large East Antarctic ice sheet). We furthermore implement recent reconstructions of Miocene Antarctic bedrock topography. We find that the positive albedo-temperature feedback, partly compensated by a negative feedback between ice volume and precipitation, increases hysteresis in the relation between CO2 and ice volume. Together, these ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions decrease the amplitude of Miocene AIS variability in idealised transient simulations. Forced by quasi-orbital 40-kyr forcing CO2 cycles, the ice volume variability reduces by 21% when ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions are included, compared to when forcing variability is only based on CO2 changes. Thereby, these interactions also diminish the contribution of AIS variability to benthic δ18O fluctuations. Evolving bedrock topography during the early- and mid-Miocene reduces ice volume variability by 10%, under equal 40-kyr cycles of atmosphere and ocean forcing. 

How to cite: Stap, L. B., Berends, C. J., Scherrenberg, M. D. W., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Gasson, E. G. W.: Net effect of ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions reduces simulated transient Miocene Antarctic ice sheet variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2829, 2022.

EGU22-2831 | Presentations | CR4.1

Reconstructing Cordilleran Ice Sheet stability in western Canada during the Last Deglaciation 

Christopher Darvill, Brian Menounos, Brent Goehring, and Alia Lesnek

The Cordilleran Ice Sheet in western North America was of comparable size and topographic setting to the modern Greenland Ice Sheet and exhibited similar dynamics. Ice streams channelled rapid flow and the western ice margin terminated in both marine and terrestrial environments. Reconstructing Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat can therefore provide a helpful analogue for how the Greenland Ice Sheet may respond to changing climate and underlying topography in the future. Moreover, deglaciation in this region controlled routes available for early human migration into the Americas. Here, we present cosmogenic 10Be nuclide exposure ages from glacial erratics and bedrock on the west coast of British Columbia (53.4°N, 129.8°W) that add to existing chronologies along ~600 km of coastal North America. Collectively, these data show deglaciation back to the present coastline by ca. 18–16 ka. Retreat then slowed and ice seemingly stabilised close to the present coastline for several thousand years until ca. 14–13 ka. Ice may still have been lost during this period of relative stability, but through vertical thinning rather than lateral retreat. We attribute initial retreat to destabilisation and grounding line retreat resulting from rising sea level and/or ocean warming in the northern Pacific. Subsequent stability at the present coast was likely due to the transition from marine to terrestrial margins despite increasing temperatures that may have driven ice sheet thinning. Hence, we show the importance of understanding both climatic and non-climatic drivers of ice sheet change through time. We also show that hundreds of kilometres of coastline were free of ice prior to an important period of early human migration into the Americas.

How to cite: Darvill, C., Menounos, B., Goehring, B., and Lesnek, A.: Reconstructing Cordilleran Ice Sheet stability in western Canada during the Last Deglaciation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2831, 2022.

EGU22-3080 | Presentations | CR4.1

Could the Laurentide Ice Sheet have exhibited internal oscillations? 

Daniel Moreno, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Marisa Montoya, Javier Blasco, and Alexander Robinson

It is well known that the climate during the last glacial period was far from stable. The presence of layers of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in deep-sea sediments has been interpreted to reflect quasi-periodic episodes of massive iceberg calving from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). Several mechanisms have been proposed, yet the ultimate cause of these events is still under debate. From the point of view of ice dynamics, one of the main sources of uncertainty and diversity in model response is the choice of the basal friction law. Therefore, it is essential to determine the impact of basal friction on ice-stream surges. Here we study the effect of a wide range of basal friction parameters and laws for the LIS under constant LGM boundary conditions by running ensembles of simulations using a higher-order ice-sheet model. The potential feedbacks among till mechanics, basal hydrology and thermodynamics are also considered to shed light on the behaviour of the ice flow. Our aim is to determine under what conditions, if any, physically-based internal oscillations are possible in the LIS. Increasing our understanding of both basal friction laws and basal hydrology will improve not only reconstructions of paleo ice dynamics but also help to constrain the potential future evolution of current ice sheets.

How to cite: Moreno, D., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M., Blasco, J., and Robinson, A.: Could the Laurentide Ice Sheet have exhibited internal oscillations?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3080, 2022.

EGU22-3293 | Presentations | CR4.1

Simulations of North American ice sheet at the LGM with FAMOUS-BISICLES and its sensitivity to global temperatures 

Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Niall Gandy, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Jonathan Gregory, and Robin Smith

Understanding the response of ice sheets to global temperature changes is a critical issue for the climate community. To accurately simulate future ice sheet evolution, we need to know the strength of feedbacks between the climate and ice sheets. Testing the ability of coupled climate-ice sheet models to simulate past ice sheet extent can provide a way to evaluate the models and ground truth projections. One example is the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), when huge ice sheets covered the Northern Hemisphere, especially over the North America. Here, we performed simulations of the North American ice sheet and climate of the LGM with a recently updated ice sheet-atmosphere coupled model Famous-Ice (Smith et al. 2021, Gregory et al. 2020). The model consists of a low-resolution atmospheric general circulation model Famous (Smith et al. 2008) and an ice sheet model BISICLES (Cornford et al. 2013). It calculates the surface mass balance over ice sheets based on an energy budget scheme and incorporates an updated albedo scheme, which accounts for albedo changes associated with modifications in surface air temperature, grain size and density of the snow. The atmospheric model reproduces the surface mass balance of the modern Greenland ice sheet reasonably well (Smith et al. 2021). Simulations of projections of future sea-level rise (Gregory et al. 2020) and the LGM (Gandy et al. in prep) have also been performed with Famous-Ice using a different ice sheet model GLIMMER.

We present simulations of the LGM with interactive ice sheets in North America and Greenland using FAMOUS-BISICLES. Uncertain input parameters controlling the surface temperatures and ice albedo are varied in our simulations. The global temperature is specified by applying fixed sea surface temperature in the atmospheric model producing a global cooling that ranges from -3K to -6.5K in the simulations. The bare ice minimum albedo is varied from 0.2 to 0.7, which corresponds to the range in PMIP3 models. Our results show a better representation of North American ice sheet when forced with a colder LGM (-6.5K) and high bare ice albedo. We will further discuss potential roles of model biases and compare our results with simulations performed with FAMOUS-GLIMMER (Gandy et al. in prep).

How to cite: Sherriff-Tadano, S., Gandy, N., Ivanovic, R., Gregoire, L., Lang, C., Gregory, J., and Smith, R.: Simulations of North American ice sheet at the LGM with FAMOUS-BISICLES and its sensitivity to global temperatures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3293, 2022.

EGU22-4740 | Presentations | CR4.1

Antarctic-climate multi-millenia coupled simulations under different pCO2 levels with the iLOVECLIM-GRISLI model 

Gaelle Leloup, Aurélien Quiquet, Christophe Dumas, Didier Roche, and Didier Paillard

Ice sheets and the rest of the climate system interact in various ways, notably via the atmosphere, ocean and solid earth. Atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and circulations affect the evolution of ice-sheets, and conversely ice-sheet evolution impacts the rest of the climate system via various processes, including albedo modification, topographic changes and freshwater flux release into the ocean. To correctly model the evolution of the climate system and sea level rise, these feedbacks therefore need to be considered.

Under the highest emission scenario, temperature is expected to reach levels comparable to the Eocene epoch in a few centuries [1]. At this time, there was no widespread glaciation in Antarctica.

The work of Garbe et al [2] has shown that the Antarctic ice sheet has a hysteresis behavior and gave different temperature thresholds leading to committed Antarctic mass loss. For example, between 6 and 9 degrees of warming (a global temperature increase comparable to the one expected in 2300 for the most emissive scenario), the loss of 70% of the present-day ice volume is triggered. However, the modelling study used idealized perturbations of the climate fields based solely on global mean temperature. More specifically, global mean temperature is translated into local changes of ocean and surface air temperature and increased until a complete deglaciation of the Antarctic ice-sheet is reached. In addition the study did not take into account the ice sheet change feedback on the climate system.

In our work we intend to go a step further by taking into account both the influence of atmosphere and oceanic temperature and circulations on the ice sheet in a physical way, as well as the influence of the ice sheet on the rest of the climate system.

To do so, we use the coupled ocean-atmosphere-vegetation intermediate complexity model iLOVECLIM [3], fully coupled to the GRISLI ice-sheet model for Antarctica [4, 5].

We perform several multi-millenia equilibria simulations for different pCO2 levels, thanks to the relative rapidity of both the iLOVECLIM and GRISLI models. These simulations lead to different atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and Antarctic mass loss. 

These coupled simulations allow us to explore the impact of the ice sheet feedback on the climate and to investigate the differences compared to cases where these feedbacks are not included. The influence of the model parameters linked to the ice sheet coupling is also studied.

 

References :

[1] Westerhold et al 2020, “An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years”

[2] Garbe et al 2020 “The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet”

[3] Quiquet et al 2018, “Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)”

[4] Quiquet et al 2018, “The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet”

[5] Quiquet et al 2021 “Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model”

How to cite: Leloup, G., Quiquet, A., Dumas, C., Roche, D., and Paillard, D.: Antarctic-climate multi-millenia coupled simulations under different pCO2 levels with the iLOVECLIM-GRISLI model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4740, 2022.

EGU22-5016 | Presentations | CR4.1

Antarctic sub-shelf melt during the present and the last interglacial and its impact on ice sheet dynamics 

Maxence Menthon, Pepijn Bakker, Aurélien Quiquet, and Didier Roche

The response of ice sheets to climate changes can be diverse and complex. The amplitude, speed and irreversibility of the melting of the ice sheets due to current anthropogenic emissions remain largely uncertain after 2100. Being able to reconstruct the evolution of the ice sheets during the past climate changes is a possible approach to constrain their future evolution in time scales further than the end of the century.

Here we aim to reconstruct the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~ 130 to 115 kyr BP). The LIG was 0.5 to 1˚C warmer than the pre-industrial era with a sea-level between 6 to 9 m above present level. In other words, the Antarctic ice sheet during the LIG can be considered as an analogue to its future evolution. Moreover, it is the interglacial on which we have the most geological records to compare with simulation results.

Knowing that the oceanic forcing is the main driver of the Antarctic ice sheet retreat, we introduced the sub-shelf melt module PICO (Reese et al. 2018) in the ice sheet model (GRISLI, Quiquet et al. 2018) in order to physically compute the melt. We use outputs from the Earth Sytem Model (iLOVECLIM, Roche et al. 2014) to force idealized experiments. Several time periods will be covered: present-day, last glacial maximum and LIG. This work is a first step towards a fully coupled iLOVECLIM-GRISLI-PICO simulation to explicitly take into account the ice sheet climate - interactions in a physical way in simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet during the LIG and future centuries.

How to cite: Menthon, M., Bakker, P., Quiquet, A., and Roche, D.: Antarctic sub-shelf melt during the present and the last interglacial and its impact on ice sheet dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5016, 2022.

EGU22-5261 | Presentations | CR4.1

Simulating the Last Glacial Cycle using a Glacial Index and Climate Matrix Method 

Meike D.W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S.W. van de Wal, Constantijn J. Berends, and Lennert B. Stap

For simulating ice sheet – climate interactions on multi-millennial time-scales, a set-up that uses a two-way coupled Earth System Model would be ideal. However, running these simulations over multi-millennium time-scales while including ice sheets, is not feasible. Alternatively, ice sheet models can be forced by interpolating climate time-slices, allowing for a transient forcing to an ice sheet model at limited computational costs.

Here, we compare two methods that interpolate between climate time-slices to create a transient forcing for ice sheet simulations. Firstly, we use a glacial index method, in which the climate is linearly interpolated between time-slices based only on prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Secondly, we use a climate matrix method in which the interpolation is not only dependent on the prescribed CO2 concentration, but also on internally generated thickness, volume and albedo. As a result, the climate matrix method captures ice-sheet atmosphere feedbacks.

Here we present ice sheet simulations of the Last Glacial Cycle using IMAU-ICE forced with Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Pre-Industrial time-slices. For the time-slices we use the output from nine Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) GCMs. Our aim is to compare and to evaluate the differences in ice sheet evolution and LGM volume and extent resulting from the different PMIP3 models and the interpolation method used for transient simulations.

For most PMIP3 forcings, both the North-American and Eurasian ice sheets build up quicker in the climate matrix method compared to the glacial index method, which is in better agreement with paleo-observations. This is mostly a result from precipitation differences between the two interpolation methods: In the climate matrix method the interpolation of precipitation is dependent on internally generated ice thickness instead of only CO2. Therefore, when ice thickness is smaller than LGM, the interpolation tends to shift more towards pre-industrial in the climate matrix method compared to the glacial index method. As precipitation is larger during pre-industrial compared to LGM in most Eurasian and North-American regions, this leads to a larger precipitation in the climate matrix method, increasing ice sheet volume. Similarly, the climate matrix method results into warmer temperatures in ice-free areas as the interpolation is dependent on both CO2, albedo and insolation. However, for most PMIP3 models, this ice sheet-temperature feedback does not cancel-out the increased precipitation in the climate matrix method.

How to cite: Scherrenberg, M. D. W., van de Wal, R. S. W., Berends, C. J., and Stap, L. B.: Simulating the Last Glacial Cycle using a Glacial Index and Climate Matrix Method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5261, 2022.

EGU22-5599 | Presentations | CR4.1

Impact of cumulative anthropogenic carbon emissions, emission duration, and negative emission scenarios on melting of the Greenland ice sheet 

Dennis Höning, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski

Budgets of remaining anthropogenic carbon emissions have been estimated to keep global warming below a limit (IPCC report 2021). A main impact of global warming is the rise of the sea level caused by melting of the Greenland ice sheet. However, the response of the Greenland ice sheet to temperature rise is strongly nonlinear. Melting depends on the time interval at which the ice sheet is exposed to high temperatures and on its rate of change, and a short time interval of high emission would therefore not necessarily result in the same sea level rise as long intervals of low emission. In order to make adequate predictions about sea level rise associated with melting of the Greenland ice sheet at specific times in the future, it is therefore crucial to explore the impact of cumulative emissions in combination with the emission duration.

We simulate Earth’s evolution for the next 20,000 years using CLIMBER-X, a fully coupled Earth System model of intermediate complexity, including modules for atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice and the interactive 3-D polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS, which is applied to the Greenland ice sheet at a spatial resolution of 16 km. In a first step, we explore equilibrium states of the volume of the Greenland ice sheet using constant partial pressures of atmospheric CO2. We also explore tipping points related to these states, i.e. unstable states of the ice volume where smaller values would lead to further melting until the associated stable state is reached. Next, we investigate the critical cumulative carbon emission to cross these tipping points. Finally, we assess the influence of the emission duration on crossing the tipping points and on the convergence rate towards the associated equilibrium states. We also investigate to what extent future negative emissions could limit sea level rise.

Our results show how high carbon emission rates, even throughout a short time interval, cause the Greenland ice sheet system to rapidly approach equilibrium states of smaller ice volume. This convergence cannot completely be offset by future negative emissions. In contrast, a quick decrease of global emissions, even if in combination with an extended time period of small net emissions in the future, would substantially delay sea level rise and could even prevent the system from crossing the tipping points.

How to cite: Höning, D., Calov, R., Talento, S., Willeit, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Impact of cumulative anthropogenic carbon emissions, emission duration, and negative emission scenarios on melting of the Greenland ice sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5599, 2022.

EGU22-6242 | Presentations | CR4.1

Sensitivity of Heinrich-type ice sheet surges and their implications for the last deglaciation 

Clemens Schannwell, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, and Marie-Luise Kapsch

Transitions from a stable, periodically oscillating ice-sheet system to a perpetual ice stream has potentially far-reaching implications for the timing of the onset of the last deglaciation as well as for climate transitions such as the Younger Dryas. These periodical ice-sheet oscillations known as Heinrich-type ice sheet surges are among the most dominant signals of glacial climate variability. They are quasi-periodic events during which large amounts of ice are discharged from ice sheets into the ocean. The addition of freshwater strongly affects the ocean circulation, resulting in a pronounced cooling in the North Atlantic region. In addition, changes in the ice sheet geometry also have significant effects on the climate. Here, we use a coupled ice sheet-solid earth model that is driven with forcing from a comprehensive Earth System Model that includes interactive ice sheets to identify key drivers controlling the surge cycle length of Heinrich-type ice-sheet surges from two main outlet glaciers of the Laurentide ice sheet. Our simulations show different surge initiation behaviour for the land-terminating Mackenzie ice stream and marine-terminating Hudson ice stream. For both ice streams, the surface mass balance has the largest effect on the surge cycle length. Ice surface temperature and geothermal heat flux also influence the surge cycle length, but to a lesser degree. Ocean forcing and different frequencies of the same forcing have a negligible effect on the surge cycle length. The simulations also highlight that a certain parameter space exists under which stable surge oscillations can be maintained. This parameter range is much narrower for the Mackenzie ice stream than for the Hudson ice stream. Leaving the stable regime results in a dynamical switch that turns the system from periodically oscillating system into a perpetual ice stream system. This transition can lead to a volume loss of up to 36% for the respective ice stream drainage basin under otherwise glacial climate conditions.

How to cite: Schannwell, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., and Kapsch, M.-L.: Sensitivity of Heinrich-type ice sheet surges and their implications for the last deglaciation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6242, 2022.

EGU22-6247 | Presentations | CR4.1

The influence of proglacial lakes on climate and surface mass balance of retreating ice sheets – An Investigation of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets,13 ka BP 

Lianne Sijbrandij, Paul Gierz, Sebastian Hinck, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Gerrit Lohmann, and Lu Niu

This study investigates how large proglacial lakes affected regional climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of retreating ice sheets during the last deglaciation. For this purpose we have modified the atmosphere model ECHAM6. The approach is here to limit the surface temperature of proglacial lakes to values below 4°C, while other lakes in ECHAM6 can freely evolve according to a mixed layer scheme.

As a first application we investigate the impact of proglacial lakes during the Allerød interstadial at 13 ka (ka is thousand years before present) with three atmosphere stand-alone experiments:

(i) with 13ka land surface boundary conditions (GLAC1d, Ivanovic et al., 2016) and a modern lake configuration

(ii) same as (i) but with additional lakes around the North American and Fennoscandian Ice Sheets

(iii) same as (ii) but the additional lakes are treated according to our proglacial lake approach.

Over the ocean we use boundary conditions taken from a 15ka coupled climate simulation. These three simulations were evaluated with respect to the regional climate response and the SMB was calculated using the diurnal Energy Balance Model (dEBM, Krebs-Kanzow et al., 2021). Preliminary results are indicating an overall positive effect of regular lakes, and in particular proglacial lakes, on the SMB of the great ice sheets over Northern America and Scandinavia during the Allerød interstadial.

 

References:

Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., Valdes, P. J., Burke, A., Drummond, R., Peltier, W. R., and Tarasov, L.: Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21–9 thousand years before present (version 1) – PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016.

Krebs-Kanzow, U., Gierz, P., Rodehacke, C. B., Xu, S., Yang, H., and Lohmann, G., 2021: The diurnal Energy Balance Model (dEBM): a convenient surface mass balance solution for ice sheets in Earth system modeling, The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021.

How to cite: Sijbrandij, L., Gierz, P., Hinck, S., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Lohmann, G., and Niu, L.: The influence of proglacial lakes on climate and surface mass balance of retreating ice sheets – An Investigation of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets,13 ka BP, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6247, 2022.

EGU22-6624 | Presentations | CR4.1

A transient glacial cycle simulation with the coupled CESM1.2-PSUIM climate-ice-sheet model 

Kyung-Sook Yun and Axel Timmermann

Here we present first results from a series of transient glacial cycle simulations which were conducted with the Community Earth System model (CESM, version 1.2) coupled to the Penn State University ice sheet-ice-shelf Model (PSUIM). The coupling is achieved by applying CESM-simulated surface air temperature, precipitation, surface shortwave radiation and subsurface-ocean temperatures to the PSUIM. CESM is forced in return by PSUIM-simulated ice sheet cover, topography, and freshwater fluxes. The coupled model, which uses a ~ 4 degree horizontal resolution in the atmosphere and ocean and ~ 40 km for the ice-sheets in both hemispheres, includes representations of the lapse-rate, desert-elevation and albedo-dust feedbacks. The coupled model, which uses moderate bias corrections for temperature and precipitation, reproduces the ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle in reasonable agreement with paleo-climate data. In this presentation we will further highlight the sensitivity of simulated glacial variability to changes in key surface parameters as well to the individual orbital and greenhouse gas forcings. Our results reveal that only the combination of orbital and CO2 forcings can generate the full glacial/interglacial amplitude. Single forcings are insufficient to generate glacial variability, which emphasizes the need to understand the mechanisms that led to the orbital pace-making of CO2 during the Pleistocene.

How to cite: Yun, K.-S. and Timmermann, A.: A transient glacial cycle simulation with the coupled CESM1.2-PSUIM climate-ice-sheet model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6624, 2022.

EGU22-7293 | Presentations | CR4.1

Antarctic Ice Sheet  simulations using Yelmo ice sheet model and a series of IPSL CM5A2 climate simulations between 17 Ma and 14 Ma 

Diane Segalla, Javier Blasco Navarro, Gilles Ramstein, Frédéric Fluteau, Alexander James Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Marisa Luisa Montoya Redondo, and Florence Colleoni

The mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO, ~17-15 Ma) and the mid-Miocene Climatic Transition (MCT, ~15-13.5 Ma),  represents a period of high policy relevance because of the high atmospheric pCO2 concentrations. Exploring this period offers the opportunity to investigate the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to CO2 forcings that are close to those projected in the medium to worse case emission scenarios. A set of equilibrium simulations with the 3D ice sheet model Yelmo allows us to study the envelope of the AIS volume and extent during the MMCO (17 Ma) and MCT (14 Ma). These simulations are forced off-line with equilibrium climatic conditions  obtained with the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) IPSL CM5A2.  Two values of the reconstructed atmospheric pCO2, i.e. 420 ppm and 700 ppm, are prescribed, for an orbital configuration corresponding to minimum and maximum insolation values at 75°S each (9 climate simulations in total). Thanks to these different configurations we simulated the AIS dynamics. Results show that at 17 Ma, warmer conditions produce an AIS that is drastically reduced with respect to today’s configuration. At 14 Ma, cooler climatic conditions allow the AIS to expand again. This is in agreement with the geological records of the AIS dynamics that reveal a substantial expansion of the ice sheet at the end of the MCT. Since Antarctica is the only ice sheet at this time, our set of climate and ice-sheet simulations capture the envelope of ice volume and extent of the AIS. Moreover, such studies contribute to a better understanding of the 𝛿18O records and of the evolution of deep ocean temperature versus ice volume and global mean sea level change.

How to cite: Segalla, D., Blasco Navarro, J., Ramstein, G., Fluteau, F., Robinson, A. J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya Redondo, M. L., and Colleoni, F.: Antarctic Ice Sheet  simulations using Yelmo ice sheet model and a series of IPSL CM5A2 climate simulations between 17 Ma and 14 Ma, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7293, 2022.

EGU22-7563 | Presentations | CR4.1

Sea ice dynamics in the Labrador Sea across Heinrich events during MIS 3 

Henrieka Detlef, Mads Mørk Jensen, Marianne Glasius, and Christof Pearce

The most prominent events of ice-sheet collapse in the recent geological past are so-called Heinrich events observed during millennial-scale climate oscillations of the last glacial period. They are characterized by the dispersal of ice(berg) rafted debris and freshwater across the North Atlantic, with the Hudson Strait suggested as the predominant source region. One potential mechanism triggering iceberg release invokes cryosphere-ocean interactions, where subsurface warming destabilizes the Laurentide ice sheet. In this scenario, the build-up of a subsurface heat reservoir is caused by an extensive sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea in combination with a reduced overturning circulation in the North Atlantic, preventing the release and downward mixing of heat in the water column.

Here we present high-resolution reconstructions of sea ice dynamics in the outer Labrador Sea between 30 ka and 60 ka at IODP Site U1302/03, located on Orphan Knoll. Sea ice reconstructions are based on a suite of sympagic and pelagic biomarkers, including highly branched isoprenoids and sterols. These results suggest a transition from reduced/seasonal to extended/perennial sea ice conditions preceding the onset of iceberg rafting associated with Heinrich event 3, 4, 5, and 5a by a couple of hundred to a thousand years. Our preliminary results thus support the importance of sea ice in the Labrador Sea for triggering Heinrich events. Future results from the same core will have to confirm the timing and extent of subsurface warming and ocean circulation dynamics.  

How to cite: Detlef, H., Mørk Jensen, M., Glasius, M., and Pearce, C.: Sea ice dynamics in the Labrador Sea across Heinrich events during MIS 3, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7563, 2022.

EGU22-7694 | Presentations | CR4.1

Sensitivity of the Eurasian Ice Sheet: Improved model-data comparison routines 

Rosie Archer, Jeremy Ely, Timothy Heaton, and Chris Clark

At the Last Glacial Maximum, the Eurasian Ice Sheet (EIS) was one of the largest ice masses, reaching an area of 5.5 Mkm2 at its maximum. Recent advances in numerical ice sheet modelling hold significant promise for improving our understanding of ice sheet dynamics, but remain limited by the significant uncertainty as to the appropriate values for the various model input parameters. The EIS left behind a rich library of observational evidence, in the form of glacial landforms and sediments. Integrating this evidence with numerical ice sheet models allows inference on these key model parameters, leading to a better understanding of the behaviour of the EIS and a framework for advancing numerical ice sheet models. To quantify how successfully a particular model run matches the available data, model-data comparison tools are required. Here, we model the EIS using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), a hybrid shallow-ice shallow shelf ice sheet model. We perform sensitivity analyses to reveal the most important parameters controlling the evolution of our modelled EIS. Results from this analysis allow us to reduce the parameter space required for a future ensemble experiment. This ensemble experiment will utilise novel model-data comparison tools which compare ice-free timings to geochronological evidence and modelled flow directions with drumlins. Unlike previous model-data comparison routines, our tools provide a more nuanced, and probabilistic, assessment of fit than a simple pass-fail. This offers significant benefits for future parameter selection.

How to cite: Archer, R., Ely, J., Heaton, T., and Clark, C.: Sensitivity of the Eurasian Ice Sheet: Improved model-data comparison routines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7694, 2022.

EGU22-9235 | Presentations | CR4.1

Tipping Points in the Amundsen Sea Sector, a comparison between 2D and 3D ice-sheet models 

Cyrille Mosbeux, Olivier Gagliardini, Nicolas Jourdain, Benoit Urruty, Mondher Chekki, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Gael Durand

Ice mass loss from Antarctic Ice Sheet is increasing, accelerating its contribution to global sea level rise. Interactions between the ice shelves (the floating portions of the ice sheet that buttress the grounded ice) and the ocean are key processes in this mass loss. The most rapid recent observed mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is in the Amundsen Sea, where buttressing is declining as small ice shelves are being thinned rapidly by melting driven by inflows of warm Circumpolar Deep Water, leading to important grounding line retreats. Recent research indicates that ice sheets, especially the parts that rest on a bed below sea level such as most of the Amundsen sector, are particularly prone to an unstable and irreversible retreat that might lead to an important and fast global sea level rise.

As part of the European Horizon 2020 research project TiPACCs that assesses the possibility of near-future irreversible changes, so-called tipping points, in the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we conduct numerical simulations perturbating the current conditions of the ice-ocean system in the Amundsen Sea Sector. More particularly, we use the Stokes flow formulation of the open-source ice flow model Elmer/Ice, forced with melt parametrization under the ice shelves to determine the effect of ocean warming on the ice-sheet evolution –eventually looking for the existence of future tipping points in the region. Since 3D-Stokes models can be numerically expensive, using the same Elmer/Ice framework (datasets, ocean and climate forcing), we compare our results to the more efficient but sometimes less accurate 2D-shallow–shelf(y)-Approximation (SSA). This methodology allows us to entangle the differences between the two models and better constrain the uncertainty linked to TiPACCs pan-Antarctic simulations based on the SSA.

How to cite: Mosbeux, C., Gagliardini, O., Jourdain, N., Urruty, B., Chekki, M., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Durand, G.: Tipping Points in the Amundsen Sea Sector, a comparison between 2D and 3D ice-sheet models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9235, 2022.

EGU22-9983 | Presentations | CR4.1

Antarctica’s x-factor: How does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature? 

Lena Nicola, Prof. Dirk Notz, and Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann

Snowfall is by far the most important positive contributor to the overall mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, potentially buffering temperature-induced dynamical ice loss in a warming climate. Previous studies have proposed that Antarctic snowfall will increase along the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, describing the saturation water vapour pressure as a function of temperature (7% change for 1°C of warming). Due to cold temperatures and continentality in the interior, this general, first-order explanation may not hold true for snowfall changes across the ice sheet. In this study, we investigate how this first-order approximation can be modified to more reliably represent snowfall changes in a warming climate for simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

To characterise the present-day precipitation pattern, we use reanalysis data and make use of state-of-the-art model data from the CMIP6 modelling project as well as regional model data. We analyse how the sensitivity of Antarctic precipitation to temperature changes is represented in models and how it potentially changes in the future. We use least-squares linear regression to determine the sensitivity factor, Antarctica’s x-factor, that is used in ice-sheet models to scale precipitation. 

With our statistical analyses, we show that sensitivities of column-integrated water vapour, precipitation, snowfall, net precipitation, and surface mass balance to temperature changes are fairly similar under present-day conditions; implying that the exponential relationship of saturation water vapour pressure to temperature could generally lead to additional mass gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with warming. However, we find that the relationship of Antarctic precipitation to temperatures across the ice sheet is not constant, but decreases with ongoing warming. Taking these changes into account could give a more reliable estimate of future precipitation changes than existing approaches. We demonstrate that a linear approximation of the exponential relationship between Antarctic precipitation and temperature becomes more and more imprecise in a warming climate, both for computing the sensitivity factor and to scale Antarctic precipitation in models.

We propose a new way to extract the sensitivity factor of Antarctic precipitation to temperature which takes regional variations and the temperature dependence into account. The temperature dependence becomes more important the higher the warming becomes. Considering local warming rates, we show the necessity of introducing a temperature-dependent scaling factor in ice-sheet models, especially for high-end or long-term sea-level projections.

How to cite: Nicola, L., Notz, P. D., and Winkelmann, P. R.: Antarctica’s x-factor: How does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9983, 2022.

EGU22-10008 | Presentations | CR4.1

The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple 

Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann

With a volume of 58 m sea-level equivalent, the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest potential source of future sea-level rise under global warming. While the ice sheet gains mass through snowfall at the surface, it loses mass through dynamic discharge and iceberg calving into the ocean, as well as by melting at the surface and underneath its floating ice shelves.

Already today, Antarctica is contributing to sea-level rise. So far, this contribution has been comparatively modest, but is expected to increase in the future. Most of the current mass losses are concentrated in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, mainly caused by sub-shelf melting and ice discharge. Because air temperatures are low and thus surface melt rates are small, any significant melting at the surface is restricted to the low-elevation coastal zones. At the same time, most of the mass loss is offset by snowfall, which is projected to further increase in a warming atmosphere.

As warming progresses over the coming centuries, the question arises as to how long the mass losses on the one side will be compensated by the gains on the other. In 21st-century projections, increasing surface mass balance is outweighing increased discharge even under strong warming scenarios. However, in long-term (multi-century to millennium scale) warming simulations the positive surface mass balance trend shows a peak and subsequent reversal. Owing to positive feedbacks, like the surface-elevation or the ice-albedo feedback, this effect can be enhanced once a surface lowering is triggered or the surface reflectivity is lowered by initial melt.

Here, we implement a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model (dEBM-simple) as a surface module in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), which extends the conventional positive-degree-day (PDD) approach to include the influence of solar radiation and parameterizes the ice albedo as a function of melting, implicitly accounting for the ice-albedo feedback.

Using a model sensitivity ensemble, we analyze the range of possible surface mass balance evolutions over the 21st century as well as in long-term simulations based on extended end-of-century climatological conditions with the coupled model. The comparison with the PDD approach hints to a strong overestimation of surface melt rates of the latter, even under present day conditions. The dEBM-simple further allows us to disentangle the respective contributions of temperature- and insolation-driven surface melt to future sea level rise.

How to cite: Garbe, J., Zeitz, M., Krebs-Kanzow, U., and Winkelmann, R.: The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10008, 2022.

EGU22-10758 | Presentations | CR4.1

Kill dates from re-exposed black mosses constrain past glacier advances along the western Antarctic Peninsula 

Dulcinea Groff, David Beilman, Zicheng Yu, and Derek Ford

Glaciers retreating along the western Antarctic Peninsula (AP) reveal previously entombed soils and plants. We collected black (dead) mosses to constrain the timing of late Holocene glacier advances at four sites along the AP from ice-free terrain and from rapidly retreating ice margins. The results of radiocarbon measurements from 39 black mosses were used to infer glacier activity over the past 1500 years along with established criteria for sample collection. The criteria ensure robust estimates of when plant growth ended, referred to hereafter as “kill date”. From these kill dates we report distinct periods of ice advance during ca. 1300, 800, and 200 calibrated calendar years before 1950 (cal yr BP) and the first estimates of glacier rate of advance around 800 cal yr BP of 2.0 and 0.3 meters per year from Gamage and Bonaparte Points (southern Anvers Island), respectively. Kill dates reveal a narrow range of ages within a region, suggesting that multiple glacier termini advanced together, and that the rate of local advances may have varied by an order of magnitude. Other evidence for glacier advances in the northern AP ca. 200 cal yr BP and ages of penguin remains (a proxy for penguin colony abandonment) centered ca. 800 cal yr BP from several sites across the AP coincide with our kill dates. Combining several lines of terrestrial evidence for past glacier activity is critical to improving our understanding of the regional synchroneity of glacial dynamics and cryosphere-biosphere connections.

How to cite: Groff, D., Beilman, D., Yu, Z., and Ford, D.: Kill dates from re-exposed black mosses constrain past glacier advances along the western Antarctic Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10758, 2022.

A leading contender for explaining the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) from small 40 kyr glaciations to large, abruptly terminating 100 kyr ones is a shift to high friction bed under the Northern hemisphere ice sheets – the North American ice sheet in particular. The regolith hypothesis posits that this occurred with the removal of deformable regolith – laying bare higher-friction bedrock under ice sheet core domains. Is the regolith hypothesis consistent with the physics of glacial removal of mechanically weak surface material?                

                                                                        

Self-consistency of the regolith hypothesis has not been tested for a realistic, 3D North American ice sheet, capturing the transition from soft to hard bedded and 40 to 100 kyr cycles, fully considering basal processes and sediment production. To test self-consistency, we simulate the pace and distribution of regolith removal in a numerical ice sheet model incorporating the relevant glacial processes and their uncertainties. Specifically, the Glacial Systems Model includes: fully coupled sediment production and transport, subglacial hydrology, glacial isostatic adjustment, 3D thermomechanically coupled hybrid ice physics, and internal climate solution from a 2D non-linear energy balance model. The sediment model produces sediment via quarrying and abrasion while transporting material englacially and subglacially. The subglacial hydrology model employs a linked-cavity system with a flux based switch to tunnel drainage, giving dynamic effective pressure needed for realistic sediment and sliding processes. Deflection and rebound of the Earth's surface are calculated for a range of solid Earth visco-elastic rheologies.  The coupled system is driven only by prescribed atmospheric CO2 and orbitally derived insolation.

                                                                         

Starting from a range of initial sediment distributions and simulating an ensemble of model parameter values, we model the rate and spatial distribution of regolith dispersal and compare this against the inferred range of Pliocene regolith thickness, the present day sediment distribution, and the timing of the MPT. A first order fully coupled representation of ice, climate and sediment interactions captures the transition within parametric and observational uncertainty. The system gives the shift from 40 to 100 kyr glacial cycles while broadly reproducing the present day sediment distribution, inferred early Pleistocene extent, LGM ice volume and deglacial margin locations.

How to cite: Drew, M. and Tarasov, L.: A test of the Regolith Hypothesis with fully coupled glacial sediment and ice sheet modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10821, 2022.

EGU22-11345 | Presentations | CR4.1

New ice margin chronology for the last deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet Complex 

Martin Margold, April S. Dalton, Jakob Heyman, Helen E. Dulfer, and Sophie L. Norris

The North American Ice Sheet Complex (comprising the Laurentide, Cordilleran and Innuitian ice sheets) was the largest ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere that grew towards and waned after the Last Glacial Maximum. The existing ice margin chronology available for the North American Ice Sheet Complex is based on radiocarbon data only and does not reflect other geochronometric information constraining the last deglaciation, such as cosmogenic exposure- or optically stimulated luminescence ages. Here we present a series of newly produced ice margin isochrones from 25 ka to present, in a time step of 500 years. For each isochron, we draw maximum, best estimate, and minimum ice margin position in an attempt to capture the existing uncertainty. The ice margin isochrones are based on (i) an up-to-date dataset of radiocarbon ages (~5000), (ii) 10Be and 26Al cosmogenic nuclide data that directly date ~80 ice-marginal features over North America, (iii) ~350 optically stimulated luminescence ages dating the deposition of an aeolian cover immediately post-deglaciation, (iv) the ice-sheet scale glacial geomorphology record. Our effort brings the information on the last North American Ice Sheet Complex deglaciation on par with that for the Eurasian Ice Sheets and should serve the broad community of Quaternary research from archaeology to numerical ice sheet modelling.

How to cite: Margold, M., Dalton, A. S., Heyman, J., Dulfer, H. E., and Norris, S. L.: New ice margin chronology for the last deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet Complex, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11345, 2022.

EGU22-11407 | Presentations | CR4.1

Effects of extreme melt events on the Greenland ice sheet 

Johanna Beckmann and Ricarda Winkelmann

Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events, the most pronounced ones in the years 2010, 2012 and 2019. With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe. So far, however, projections of ice loss and sea-level change from Greenland typically rely on scenarios that only take gradual changes in the climate into account. 
Here we investigate the effect of extreme melt events on the ice dynamics and overall mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). While the extremes generally lead to thinning of the ice sheet by enhanced melting, they partly also decrease the overall ice surface velocities due to a reduced driving gradient. In our simulations, we find that taking extreme events into account leads to additional ice loss compared to the baseline scenario without extremes. We find that the sea-level contribution from Greenland could increase by up to 45 cm by the year 2300 if severe extreme events are considered in future projections. We conclude that both changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events need to be taken into account when projecting the future sea-level contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.

How to cite: Beckmann, J. and Winkelmann, R.: Effects of extreme melt events on the Greenland ice sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11407, 2022.

EGU22-11503 | Presentations | CR4.1

De-tuning a coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum 

Lauren Gregoire, Niall Gandy, Lachlan Astfalck, Ruza Ivanovic, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Robin Smith, and Daniel Williamson

Coupled climate-ice sheet models are crucial to evaluating climate-ice feedbacks' role in future ice sheet evolution. Such models are calibrated to reproduce modern-day ice sheets, but current observations alone are insufficient to constrain the strength of climate-ice feedbacks. The extent of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial maximum, ~20,000 years ago, is well known and could provide a benchmark for calibrating coupled climate-ice sheet models. We test this with the FAMOUS-ice coupled Climate-Ice Sheet model (Smith et al., 2020), a fast GCM coupled to the Glimmer ice sheet model. We ran Last Glacial Maximum simulations using FAMOUS-ice with interactive North American Ice Sheet, following the PMIP4 protocol (Kageyama et al., 2018). We find that the standard model setup, calibrated to produce a good present-day Greenland (Smith et al., 2020), produced a collapsed North American ice sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum. We ran ensembles of hundreds of simulations to explore the influence of uncertain ice sheet, albedo, atmospheric, and oceanic parameters on the ice sheet extent. The North American continent deglaciated rapidly in most of our simulations, leaving only a handful of useful simulations out of 280. We thus developed a method to efficiently identify regions of the parameter space that can produce a reasonable ice-sheet extent. This involved emulating the equilibrium ice volume and area as a function of the surface mass balance at the start of our simulations. We then ran three waves of short simulations for 20-50 years to identify parameter values and surface mass balance conditions potentially suitable to grow a realistic ice sheet. This enabled us to find ~160 simulations with good ice extent.

Through analysis of these simulations, we find that albedo parameters determine the majority of uncertainty when simulating the Last Glacial Maximum North American Ice Sheets. The differences in cloud cover over the ablation zones of the North American and Greenland ice sheet explains why the ice sheets have different sensitivities to surface mass balance parameters. Based on our work, we propose that the Last Glacial Maximum can provide an “out-of-sample” target to avoid over calibrating coupled climate-ice sheet models to the present day.

References:

Kageyama, M. et al. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 4035–4055 (2017).

Smith, R. S., George, S., and Gregory, J. M.: FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5769–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021, 2021.

 

How to cite: Gregoire, L., Gandy, N., Astfalck, L., Ivanovic, R., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Smith, R., and Williamson, D.: De-tuning a coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11503, 2022.

EGU22-11929 | Presentations | CR4.1

Evaluation of a coupled climate ice sheet model over the Greenland ice sheet and sensitivity to atmospheric, snow and ice sheet parameters 

Charlotte Lang, Victoria Lee, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, and Robin S. Smith

As part of a project working to improve coupled climate-ice sheet modelling of the response of ice sheets to changes in climate across different periods since the Last Glacial Maximum, we present simulations of the modern Greenland climate and ice sheet using the FAMOUS-BISICLES model.

FAMOUS-BISICLES, a variant of FAMOUS-ice (Smith et al., 2021a), is a low resolution (7.5°X5°) global climate model that is two-way coupled to a higher resolution (minimum grid spacing of 1.2 km) adaptive mesh ice sheet model, BISICLES. It uses a system of elevation classes to downscale the lower resolution atmospheric variables onto the ice sheet grid and calculates surface mass balance using a multilayer snow model. FAMOUS-ice is computationally affordable enough to simulate the millennial evolution of the coupled climate-ice sheet system, and has been shown to simulate Greenland well in previous work using the Glimmer shallow ice model (Gregory et al., 2020).

The ice sheet volume and area are sensitive to a number of parametrisations related to atmospheric and snow surface processes and ice sheet dynamics. Based on that, we designed a perturbed parameters ensemble using a Latin Hypercube sampling technique and ran simulations with climate forcings appropriate for the late 20th century. The ice sheet area and volume are most correlated to parameters that set the snow/firn albedo while the relationship is less simple for parameters related to clouds and precipitation.

We compare FAMOUS-ice SMB and coupled behaviour against the more sophisticated, higher resolution, CMIP6-class UKESM-ice coupled climate ice sheet model for a late 20th century simulation as well as an abrupt 4XCO2 experiment.

Our simulations produce a large range of climate and ice sheet behaviours, including a stable control state for the modern Greenland, and we have been able to highlight the sensitivity of the system to other sets of parameters and future changes in climate.

How to cite: Lang, C., Lee, V., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Gandy, N., Gregory, J., Ivanovic, R., Gregoire, L., and Smith, R. S.: Evaluation of a coupled climate ice sheet model over the Greenland ice sheet and sensitivity to atmospheric, snow and ice sheet parameters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11929, 2022.

EGU22-12018 | Presentations | CR4.1

Uncertainties of Surface Mass Balance in Greenland for the mid-Holocene as derived from CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations. 

Rebekka Neugebauer, Christian B. Rodehacke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow

The temporal evolution of Greenland’s surface mass balance (SMB) exerts an essential control on its volume, geometry, and sea-level contribution. Surface mass balance simulations based on future climate projections reveal considerable uncertainties. Here, we investigate Greenland’s SMB during past climate periods and assess the uncertainties due to model dependent climate forcing. Specifically we analyse the SMB of the pre-industrial climate and the mid-Holocene warm period.

 

We study the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet with respect to uncertainties due to model dependent climate forcing. For this purpose, we create an ensemble based on the output of climate models of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the Paleomodel Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) (Brierley et al., 2020). This ensemble is used to simulate the SMB with the diurnal energy balance model (dEBM) (Krebs-Kanzow et al, 2021). As part of the analysis, we inspect anomalies and inter-model deviations of the mid-Holocene climate forcing, and evaluate the spread of spatial patterns of SMB anomalies in CMIP6/PMIP4. Our results indicate that the model-dependent climate forcing adds considerable uncertainty to SMB estimates over Greenland during the Holocene.

 

References

Brierley, C. M., Zhao, A., Harrison, S. P., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Thornalley, D. J. R., Shi, X., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Ohgaito, R., Kaufman, D. S., Kageyama, M., Hargreaves, J. C., Erb, M. P., Emile-Geay, J., D'Agostino, R., Chandan, D., Carré, M., Bartlein, P. J., Zheng, W., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Q., Yang, H., Volodin, E. M., Tomas, R. A., Routson, C., Peltier, W. R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Morozova, P. A., McKay, N. P., Lohmann, G., Legrande, A. N., Guo, C., Cao, J., Brady, E., Annan, J. D., and Abe-Ouchi, A., 2020: Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations, Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, doi:10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020. 

Krebs-Kanzow, U., Gierz, P., Rodehacke, C. B., Xu, S., Yang, H., and Lohmann, G., 2021: The diurnal Energy Balance Model (dEBM): a convenient surface mass balance solution for ice sheets in Earth system modeling, The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021.

How to cite: Neugebauer, R., Rodehacke, C. B., Lohmann, G., and Krebs-Kanzow, U.: Uncertainties of Surface Mass Balance in Greenland for the mid-Holocene as derived from CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12018, 2022.

EGU22-12930 | Presentations | CR4.1

Dynamic glaciers improve LGM simulation in High Mountain Asia 

Qiang Wei, Yonggang Liu, and Yongyun Hu

Glaciers on Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas were much more extensive during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when global mean temperature was 5-8 K lower than today. Accurately reconstructing glaciers on and around Tibetan Plateau remains vital towards understanding glaciers’ sensitivity against climate change, and vice versa.

Previous simulations on glaciers in High Mountain Asia during LGM are usually forced with prescribed climatology without considering the bi-directional feedbacks. We instead coupled a climate model (CESM) to an ice-sheet model (ISSM). Our results show that the interactions between HMA glaciers and climate was significant. Uncoupled runs that ignore such interaction yielded glacial coverage roughly 10% more than coupled runs. Regional glacial features change considerably in coupled simulation. Glaciers on the mid-west Tibetan Plateau decreased while those in Qilian Mountains, Tianshan Mountains and Pamir Plateau saw pronounced increase. Compared with uncoupled simulations, our coupled results is in better agreement with reconstructions of LGM glaciers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

KEY WORDS: Glacier; Ice-sheet; Tibetan Plateau; High Mountain Asia; Numerical simulation; Climate modelling

 

How to cite: Wei, Q., Liu, Y., and Hu, Y.: Dynamic glaciers improve LGM simulation in High Mountain Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12930, 2022.

EGU22-13289 | Presentations | CR4.1

Effects of future freshwater forcing from ice sheet mass loss in a high-resolution climate model 

André Jüling, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, Marion Devilliers, and Sybren Drijfhout

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass to the ocean. This additional freshwater flux to the ocean is only expected to increase in the future, but it is usually not included in current climate model simulations as ice sheets are not modelled interactively. However, this freshwater flux will influence multiple aspects of the climate response. We develop a plausible, future freshwater forcing scenarios for both ice sheets and use a high-resolution, eddy-permitting version of EC-Earth3 to simulate the response to a high emission scenario. We investigate the effect of this additional freshwater on sea ice, ocean circulation, surface temperatures, and sea level by comparing the simulations to the HighResMIP EC-Earth3 simulations without ice sheet mass loss.

How to cite: Jüling, A., Le Bars, D., Lambert, E., Devilliers, M., and Drijfhout, S.: Effects of future freshwater forcing from ice sheet mass loss in a high-resolution climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13289, 2022.

The Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) significantly affects the heat budget and associated climate over the Indian Ocean region. The reduction in the WPWP is manifested in the form of reduced Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and may be well represented by the census count and oxygen isotope records of planktic foraminifera.

The present study is an attempt to reconstruct the episodes of reduction in the WPWP during the Quaternary, on the basis of extremely low relative abundance of planktic foraminifera Pulleniatina (Pu.) obliquiloculata from the ODP Hole 769B in the Sulu Sea. This species is a thermocline dweller, that thrives in tropical to warm subtropical latitudes. It is considered to be an indicator of Kuroshio Current and shows a direct correlation with the expansion of the WPWP.

In the ODP Hole 769B, Pu. obliquiloculata shows a low relative abundance during the Quaternary, except a few instances of significant increase, so much so that it comprises almost 50% of the entire faunal assemblage. The rising trend is characteristic of high SST and an expansion in WPWP. We have identified seven distinct events of sharp decline in the relative abundance of Pu. obliquiloculata (<5%) and named these events as Pulleniatina Minimum Events (PMEs). These events are: PME-1- (2.21-2.08 Ma); PME- 2 (1.8-1.36 Ma); PME- 3 (0.9-0.87 Ma); PME-4 (0.79-0.65 Ma), PME-5 (0.48-0.44 Ma), PME-6 (0.16-0.13 Ma) and PME-7 (0.04-0.02 Ma) in descending stratigraphic order. We interpret these events to mark be the result of the reduction in the WPWP. We have also found the occurrence of temperate fauna during the stratigraphically younger last five PMEs (PME7 to PME3), which indicate reduction in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) probably caused by glaciations. The glacial events probably enhanced the Oyashio Current, which caused the influx of cool fertile waters in the Sulu Sea. The evidence of the increased fertility in the Sulu Sea is marked by the increased relative abundance of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, a fertility indicator species, during the PME7 to PME3. The PME2 and PME1 show no presence of temperate fauna. These events of reduction in the WPWP may be attributed to the development of El Niño like conditions.

The PMEs were also correlated with the five PL events recorded by Sinha et al (2006) from ODP Hole 763A in the Eastern Indian Ocean. These PL events: PL-1- (2.22 Ma); PL-2 (1.83 Ma); PL-3 (0.68 Ma), PL-4 (0.45 Ma) and PL-5 (0.04 Ma), represented reduced strength of ITF either due to the glacial events (PL-3 to PL-5 events) or due to ENSO induced changes (reduction) in the WPWP (PL-1-and PL-2 events).

The PMEs show striking correlation with the PL events, giving testimony to episodes of reduction in the WPWP during Quaternary.

 

 

How to cite: Singh, V., Singh, A., and Sinha, D.: Pulleniatina Minimum Events from the Sulu Sea as evidence for Reduction in the Western Pacific Warm Pool during Quaternary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12, 2022.

The Permian time is characterized by various geodynamic and biotic events. The rifting of Gondwana and the formation of the super-continent Pangea are the most important events. The cessation of major Gondwana rifting and thermal cooling has subsequently resulted in the development of marine Tethyan settings at the margin of the northwestern Indian Plate. Based on detailed outcrop-based lithostratigraphical investigations, a total of three formations have been distinguished. The presence of diagnostic foraminifer’s species able to assign Wordian, Capitanian-Wuchiapingian, and Late Wuchiapingian to Changhsingian ages to these rock units respectively. The detailed biostratigraphic and sedimentological analyses of the upper Permian units of northern Pakistan divulged three phases of the carbonate platform development. Initially, the early Permian pure clastic Gondwana deposits were replaced by the Tethyan setting during the middle Permian (Wordian) time whereby the wave-dominated delta was established as the sea-level rises. However, such deltaic deposits were gradually evolved into a pure carbonate system during the Capitanian time in response to gradual transgression. The Capitanian and Wuchiapingian times show the development of a diverse shallow carbonate platform along the northwestern Indian Plate. The late Permian global regression has significantly disturbed the carbonate factory and subsequently developed river-dominated deltaic deposits of carbonate and clastic mixed system. Such a mixed system was again evolved in a carbonate platform during the Early Triassic.

How to cite: Wadood, B., Li, H., and Khan, S.: Evolution of the Permian carbonate platform on Gondwana shelf, Pakistan: sedimentological and biostratigraphic approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-227, 2022.

EGU22-465 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Evidence of high rainfall in India during Deccan eruptions based on triple oxygen isotope composition of petrified woods 

Sangbaran Ghoshmaulik, Sourendra Kumar Bhattacharya, Manoshi Hazra, Pallab Roy, Mahasin Ali Khan, Mao-Chang Liang, and Anindya Sarkar

The intertrappean sediments and the bole beds of the Deccan volcanic province hold clues to the climatic condition in India during the Cretaceous/Paleocene transition. Earlier isotopic studies of the bulk clays from the ‘bole beds’ showed that the rainwater composition was lighter (δ18O  -8‰) relative to the present-day (δ18O ~ -5‰). This was ascribed to an increase in the rainfall (amount effect). However, later reconstruction of the mean annual precipitation (MAP) from the intertrappean paleosol carbonates suggested that the amount was no different than the modern-day precipitation. One possible reason for this disagreement can be due to the low preservation potential of proxies used in these studies. The present study was carried out by analysing authigenic silica which is resistant to post-depositional modifications. Such silica deposits are abundant throughout the Deccan intertrappean sediments occurring as cherts, chertified limestone and silicified fossils. They form during the interaction of silica-rich water with the existing sediments or fossils, the silica being derived by leaching of the volcanic ash by surface run-off and/or from siliceous hydrothermal waters. Silicified woods were analyzed for their triple oxygen isotope ratios (expressed as δ17O and δ18O) to determine the silicification temperature and the isotopic composition of the silicifying fluid. The distribution of the obtained silicification temperature and water composition of diverse samples indicates a widely variable silicification environment. The silicification took place at temperatures from 25°C  (near surface temperature)  to 90°C (at relatively shallower levels of 50-100 m). In addition, the δ18O (VSMOW) values of silicification fluid varied from -14‰ to near 0‰. The geological, floral and faunal evidence suggest deposition of these woods in a continental fluvio-lacustrine environment. Isotope modelling of the data suggest a two-component fluid mixing between hydrothermal water and a lake water. Assuming this fluid to be derived from a mixture of meteoric water and volcanic hydrothermal water, the δ18O value of the local meteoric water is estimated to be -14‰ to -12‰. These values are lower by about 9‰ to 7‰ compared to today (mean annual δ18O over central India being ~-5‰). We ascribe this to an increase in the mean annual rainfall by about 400 mm. It is possible that the late cretaceous precipitation increased due to the warming caused by a high CO2 environment.

How to cite: Ghoshmaulik, S., Bhattacharya, S. K., Hazra, M., Roy, P., Khan, M. A., Liang, M.-C., and Sarkar, A.: Evidence of high rainfall in India during Deccan eruptions based on triple oxygen isotope composition of petrified woods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-465, 2022.

During the Messinian Salinity Crisis (5.97-5.33 Ma), evaporite deposition throughout the Mediterranean basin records a
series of dramatic environmental changes as flow through the Strait of Gibraltar was restricted. In the first stage of
evaporite deposition, cycles of gypsum appear in shallow basins on the margins of the Mediterranean. The complex
environmental history giving rise to these cycles has been investigated for decades but remains somewhat mysterious.
Notably, whether the evaporites are connected to significant changes in Mediterranean sea level is an open question.
In one proposed model, competition between tectonic uplift and erosion at the Strait of Gibraltar gives rise to self-sustaining
sea-level oscillations, or limit cycles, which trigger evaporite deposition. I show that limit cycles
are not a robust result of the proposed model and discuss how any oscillations produced by this model depend on
an unrealistic formulation of a key model equation. A more realistic formulation would render sea-level limit cycles improbable,
if not impossible, in the proposed model.

How to cite: Baum, M.: Limit Cycle Model of Messinian Salinity Crisis Incorrect and Irreproducible, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1042, 2022.

EGU22-2053 | Presentations | SSP2.1

THE END OF THE MESSINIAN SALINITY CRISIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: new data on the Miocene-Pliocene boundary. 

Francesco Pilade, Francesco Dela Pierre, Marcello Natalicchio, Iuliana Vasiliev, Daniel Birgel, Alan Mancini, Francesca Lozar, and Rocco Gennari

The Miocene-Pliocene transition (MPT) in the Mediterranean area represents one of the unresolved geological riddles of the Neogene. The MPT coincides with the end of the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC, Hsü et al., 1977), an event that led to the deposition of massive volume of evaporite on the Mediterranean seafloor. The final stage of the MSC started at ~5.53 Ma and its uppermost part corresponds to the “Lago-Mare” phase, characterized by the occurrence of brackish shallow water ostracods of Parathethyan origin. The “Lago-Mare” deposits are sharply overlain by Zanclean (earliest Pliocene) marine sediments, astrocronologically dated to start at 5.33 Ma (Van Couvering et al. 2000).

The interpretation of this abrupt environmental change is strongly debated. One scenario assumes a catastrophic flooding of all Mediterranean sub-basins that were previously disconnected from the Atlantic Ocean and from each other (Caruso et al., 2020). An alternative scenario invokes a gradual refilling started during the Lago-Mare phase and continued during the basal Pliocene (early Zanclean) (Roveri et al., 2008; Stoica et al., 2016; Merzeraud et al., 2018).

To investigate the paleoenvironmental conditions across the MP transition, we investigated six sections along a west to east transect of the Apennines foredeep, using an integrated approach that merge the traditional stratigraphic, palaeontological, geochemical, and petrographic data with the analysis of molecular fossils (lipid biomarkers).

The top of the Messinian sediments is marked by a bioturbated dark layer in all six studied sections. The presence of glauconite at the top of the dark layer and of firm ground burrows of the Glossifungites icnofacies filled with Zanclean sediments suggest starved sedimentary conditions and the partial lithification of the sea floor during the earliest Zanclean. In addition, the benthic foraminifera indicate an increase of bottom oxygen content and a deepening of the basin across the MPT. Preliminary results of over 40 samples indicate excellently preserved molecular fossils both in the “Lago-Mare” sediments and in the Zanclean open marine deposits with a predominance of terrestrially-derived higher-plants long chain n-alkanes (LCalk) and of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) of both marine and terrestrial origin. Future analyses will focus on the compound specific carbon and hydrogen isotopes of LCalk to further constrain precipitation and vegetation changes associated to the MPT. Changes in seawater (via isoprenoidal GDGTs) and land temperatures (via branched GDGTs) will be also reconstructed.

How to cite: Pilade, F., Dela Pierre, F., Natalicchio, M., Vasiliev, I., Birgel, D., Mancini, A., Lozar, F., and Gennari, R.: THE END OF THE MESSINIAN SALINITY CRISIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: new data on the Miocene-Pliocene boundary., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2053, 2022.

EGU22-2200 | Presentations | SSP2.1

A new Berriasian to Coniacian composite carbon isotope record from the Boreal Realm 

André Bornemann, Jochen Erbacher, Martin Blumenberg, and Silke Voigt

High-amplitude shifts in sedimentary δ13C characterize the Cretaceous system and have been proven to be of great use for supraregional chemostratigraphic correlation. Here we present an upper Berriasian to lower Coniacian (c. 142 – 88 Ma) composite carbon isotope record based on 14 drill cores, two outcrops and almost 5000 samples. The total record comprises a composite thickness of about 1500 m. All cores and successions are located in the larger Hanover area, which represents the depocenter of the North German Lower Saxony Basin (LSB) in early to mid-Cretaceous times.

Boreal Lower Cretaceous sediments are predominantly represented by CaCO3-poor mud- and siltstones of up to 2000 m thickness in northern Germany, which become more carbonate-rich during the Albian-Cenomanian transition and even chalkier in the upper Cenomanian to Coniacian interval. A number of global carbon isotope key events including the Valanginian Weissert Event, the OAEs 1a, b and d (Aptian-Albian) as well as for the early Late Cretaceous the Mid-Cenomanian Event (MCE), the OAE 2 (Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary Event) and the Navigation Event, among others, have been identified allowing for a detailed comparison with Tethyan and other Boreal records. Thus, this new detailed chemostratigraphy provides a unique opportunity to potentially overcome many still existing Boreal–Tethyan correlation issues. The presented record can be considered to be almost complete, albeit a small gap in the early Albian cannot be ruled.

How to cite: Bornemann, A., Erbacher, J., Blumenberg, M., and Voigt, S.: A new Berriasian to Coniacian composite carbon isotope record from the Boreal Realm, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2200, 2022.

EGU22-2260 | Presentations | SSP2.1

The response of benthic foraminifera to the late Miocene-early Pliocene Biogenic Bloom: the record from Southeast Atlantic Ocean (ODP Site 1085) 

Maria Elena Gastaldello, Claudia Agnini, Thomas Westerhold, Edoardo Dallanave, and Laia Alegret

The late Miocene-early Pliocene Biogenic Bloom was a significant event defined by the anomalously high marine biological productivity documented in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans; but its causes and consequences at different paleogeographical settings are not yet fully understood. Previous records from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1085 (Cape Basin, Southeast Atlantic Ocean) indicate enhanced biological productivity between 7 and 4 Ma, as supported by increased linear sedimentation rates, benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates, and increased total organic carbon mass accumulation rates (Diester-Haass et al., 2002; 2004). To look into the paleoenvironmental consequences of the Biogenic Bloom, we investigated the benthic foraminiferal turnover at this site. Results were integrated with an age model based on a bio-astrocyclostratigraphic tuning and low-resolution carbon and oxygen stable isotope records on benthic foraminifera (i.e. Cibicidoides mundulus) across an interval spanning from the Tortonian (late Miocene) to the Zanclean (early Pliocene). Quantitative analyses of the assemblages and statistical analyses point to increased food supply to the seafloor. The proliferation of phytodetritus exploiting taxa such as Alabamina weddellensis and Epistominella exigua point to an episodic nutrient supply related to seasonal phytoplankton blooms during the Biogenic Bloom.

Reference

Diester-Haass, L., Meyers, P. A., & Vidal, L. (2002). The late Miocene onset of high productivity in the Benguela Current upwelling system as part of a global pattern. Marine Geology, 180(1-4), 87-103.

Diester-Haass, L., Meyers, P. A., & Bickert, T. (2004). Carbonate crash and biogenic bloom in the late Miocene: Evidence from ODP Sites 1085, 1086, and 1087 in the Cape Basin, southeast Atlantic Ocean. Paleoceanography, 19(1).

Acknowledgements

University of Padova DOR grant, CARIPARO Foundation Ph.D. scholarship.

Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and FEDER funds (PID2019-105537RB-I00).

How to cite: Gastaldello, M. E., Agnini, C., Westerhold, T., Dallanave, E., and Alegret, L.: The response of benthic foraminifera to the late Miocene-early Pliocene Biogenic Bloom: the record from Southeast Atlantic Ocean (ODP Site 1085), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2260, 2022.

The Nordkapp Basin is located in the southwest Barents Sea. It was formed by rifting in the late Palaeozoic. As the area containing the basin moved north from the equator the climate changed from warm and arid to temperate and humid. Initially a large carbonate platform developed in the Barents Sea in the Carboniferous and Permian. The change in climate due to northward drift caused the platform to shift from a carbonate to clastic platform at the end of the Permian. The sea level changed several times during the Mesozoic due to a combination of eustatic changes and salt diapirism. The depositional environment in the area had been interpreted from multiple cores to vary from onshore coastal plain and delta plain to shelf environment due to the large scale sea level changes. In this work, the cores have been revisited to study smaller scale changes within the environments that had been recognised but not described extensively. The nature of small scale changes is different in different environments and can be seen in different aspects like the bioturbation intensity and clay and sand content. This work will compare the smaller scale sea level changes across the different environments encountered in the cores.

 

How to cite: Sandvold, M. and Felix, M.: Small scale changes superimposed on larger scale sea level-induced changes in cores from the Nordkapp Basin., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2502, 2022.

EGU22-2950 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Preliminary report on δ13Ccarb isotope excursion through the Silurian of Kurtuvėnai - 161 borehole, Northwest Lithuania 

Tomas Želvys, Andrej Spiridonov, Anna Cichon-Pupienis, Andrius Garbaras, and Sigitas Radzevicius

Lithuania is located in the eastern part of the Silurian Baltic Basin which was located near the equator during the Silurian. Kurtuvėnai -161 borehole is located in the Northwest Lithuania. The Silurian geological section of investigated interval is composed of siliciclastic and carbonate deposits and represents deep marine environments.

Samples for stable carbon isotope analysis were collected from 1441 – 1316 m depth interval. The sampling intervals range from 0.2 up to 1m. The stable carbon isotope values from carbonates were measured using Thermo Gasbench II coupled with a Thermo Delta V isotope ratio mass spectrometer.

In the investigated interval 10 graptolites biozones were distinguished: Lapworthi Biozone is distinguished in the lowest part of the section and linked to the Adavere Regional Stage (uppermost Telychian); the centrifugus - belophorus biozones mark the Jaani Regional Stage; perneri - lundgreni biozones correspond to the Jaagarahu; and parvus - nassa biozones marks the Gėluva Regional Stage of the Wenlock.

According to the δ13Ccarb isotope analysis results, a positive excursion was detected in the lower part of the studied interval from 1422.8 m up to 1390.8 m depth. There, the δ13Ccarb maximum value is 3.87 ‰. This positive δ13Ccarb anomaly can be linked to the Ireveken positive stable carbon isotopes excursion and the centrifugus – belophorus biozones interval of the lower Wenlock. We can also observe a positive δ13Ccarb excusion in the upper part of Homerian (from 1327 m depth) which potentially can be the lower part of the Mulde positive stable carbon isotopic event.

In summary, the δ13Ccarb values varied from -1.35 ‰ up to 3.92 ‰ in studied interval of Kurtuvėnai-161 borehole. A more detailed biostratigraphic and lithological study is needed for a better understanding of the integrated stratigraphy of the Silurian geological section in the Kurtuvėnai-161 borehole in the future.

How to cite: Želvys, T., Spiridonov, A., Cichon-Pupienis, A., Garbaras, A., and Radzevicius, S.: Preliminary report on δ13Ccarb isotope excursion through the Silurian of Kurtuvėnai - 161 borehole, Northwest Lithuania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2950, 2022.

EGU22-3197 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Synchronizing Rock Clocks in the Late Cambrian 

Zhengfu Zhao, Nicolas Thibault, Tais W. Dahl, Niels H. Schovsbo, Aske L. Sørensen, Christian M.Ø. Rasmussen, and Arne T. Nielsen

The Cambrian is the most poorly dated period of the past 541 million years of Earth history. This hampers analysis of profound environmental and biological changes that took place during this period. Astronomically forced climate cycle recognized in sediments and anchored to radioisotopic ages provides a powerful geochronometer that has fundamentally refined Mesozoic–Cenozoic time scales but not yet the Palaeozoic. Here we report a continuous astronomical signal detected as geochemical variations (1 mm resolution) in the late Cambrian Alum Shale Formation that is used to establish a 16 Myr-long astronomical time scale, anchored by radioisotopic dates. The resulting time scale is biostratigraphically well-constrained, allowing correlation of the late Cambrian global stage boundaries with a 405-kyr astrochronological framework. This enables a first assessment, in numerical time, of the evolution of major biotic and abiotic changes, including the end-Marjuman extinction and the Steptoean Positive Carbon Isotope Excursion, that characterized the late Cambrian Earth.

How to cite: Zhao, Z., Thibault, N., W. Dahl, T., H. Schovsbo, N., L. Sørensen, A., M.Ø. Rasmussen, C., and T. Nielsen, A.: Synchronizing Rock Clocks in the Late Cambrian, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3197, 2022.

EGU22-3547 | Presentations | SSP2.1

AMUSED: A MUltidisciplinary Study of past global climatE changes from continental and marine archives in the MeDiterranean region. The Castiglione maar drilling (central Italy) 

Patrizia Macrì, Chiara Caricchi, Francesca D’Ajello Caracciolo, Alessio Di Roberto, Biagio Giaccio, Liliana Minelli, Iacopo Nicolosi, Bianca Scateni, Gaia Siravo, and Alessandra Smedile

The current “global warming” has been widely attributed to a human-induced greenhouse effect however, until the natural variability of climate is totally understood, it is extremely difficult disentangle the natural and human-induced climatic signal and the resulting effects in a short and long period. In order to understand the role that each component plays in the climate processes it becomes essential to acquire considerably longer records than the time it takes for them to undergo significant changes. The wealth of paleoclimatic information, and the improvement of our knowledge, relies on high-quality and high-resolution data availability, provided that these are anchored to accurate age models.

AMUSED (https://progetti.ingv.it/index.php/it/amused) is a project funded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia aimed at reconstruct the climate variability in the central Mediterranean region during the middle-late Quaternary, with focus to the Holocene, by integrating paleoclimate multi-proxies data acquired from different paleoenvironmental settings. In detail, the project investigates lacustrine, speleothem and marine successions in central Italy at different temporal scales and resolution (i.e., from orbital to sub-millennial scale). Additionally, the project aims at the evaluation and reduction of the natural CO2 emission trough plantation of CO2-absorbing flora in the Colli Albani volcanic district.

The lacustrine sedimentary succession of the Castiglione maar (Colli Albani Volcano) that based on low-resolution previous studies should account for the last 280 kyr, has been selected as main continental target of the project. Intense Quaternary peri-Tyrrhenian volcanism, produced a large number of tephra that emplaced in the adjacent continental sedimentary basins, making this area suitable for the application of tephrochronology, useful for correlation and synchronization of geological records. Preliminary geophysical exploration surveys (electrical resistivity tomography and ground magnetic) were conducted across the Castiglione maar to reconstruct the subsurface structure and geometry of the basin and identify the best drilling site. Two parallel borehole (C1 and C2) were drilled in order to maximize the amount of recover and avoid large stratigraphic gaps. We retrieved 116 and 126,5 m of alternating sands, clay and silt sediments for drills C1 and C2, respectively. An additional core C3 has been afterwards located between the two boreholes, to increase the recovery of the upper 15 m of succession, strongly disturbed in the two former drills. Several tephra layers were already identified and sampled.

The sediment cores will be sampled for high-resolution multi-proxies analyses: stratigraphic, micropaleontological, palynological, geochemical (stable isotopic composition), and paleomagnetic. Moreover, a robust chronology for Castiglione records will be produced by combining 40Ar/39Ar dating of the tephra layers back to 280 kyr, and 14C dating within the last 45 kyr. In addition, a paleomagnetic chronostratigraphy will be derived, providing original target curves and an environmental magnetic investigation will be carried out, by using rock magnetic properties variations in sediments as environmental/climatic proxies.

How to cite: Macrì, P., Caricchi, C., D’Ajello Caracciolo, F., Di Roberto, A., Giaccio, B., Minelli, L., Nicolosi, I., Scateni, B., Siravo, G., and Smedile, A.: AMUSED: A MUltidisciplinary Study of past global climatE changes from continental and marine archives in the MeDiterranean region. The Castiglione maar drilling (central Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3547, 2022.

Carbonate deposits from the easternmost part of the Getic Carbonate Platform form good quality outcrops in the Postăvaru and Piatra Mare Massifs (Patrulius 1976). The average thickness of the carbonate succession reaches 400 m in these areas (Patrulius 1976). In the Postăvaru Massif, the Mesozoic succession consists of Upper Jurassic−Lower Cretaceous carbonate deposits which are covered by upper Albian−Cenomanian Conglomerates (Săndulescu 1964). In the Piatra Mare Massif, the carbonate succession comprises Callovian−Berriasian olistoliths which are embedded in the general mass of the upper Aptian Conglomerates (Săndulescu et al. 1972).

  We collected approximately 600 limestone samples from various sections, in the Postăvaru and Piatra Mare Massifs.

The following sections are located in the Postăvaru Massif: Valea Dragă, Drumul Albastru, Larga Mare, Vârful Postăvaru, Muchia Cheii-Trei Fetițe, Trei Fetițe-Poiana Secuilor, Trei Fetițe-Cabana Postăvaru.

Detailed sampling was performed in the Piatra Mare Massif, in the following sections: Bunloc Est, Bunloc Vest, Cariera Bunloc, Cheile Baciului, Cabana Piatra Mare, Valea Gârcinului, Șura de Piatră, Șura de Piatră-Vârful Piatra Mare, Piatra Scrisă, Coada Pietrei Mari, Șirul Stâncilor, Peștera de Gheață, Prăpastia Ursului and Tamina.

The following facies associations were identified: bioclastic intraclastic grainstone/rudstone, coral-microbial boundstone, packstone to floatstone with pelagic microfossils, bioclastic packstone-grainstone, peloidal oncoidic packstone-grainstone, bioclastic grainstone with black pebbles, wackestone with cyanobacteria nodules, fenestral wackestone, non-fossiliferous mudstone.

 

The micropaleontological association contains dasycladalean algae [Salpingoporella pygmea (Gümbel), Petrascula bursiformis Etallon, Aloisalthella sulcata (Alth), encrusting organisms [Bacinella type structures, Crescentiella morronensis (Crescenti), Koskinobulina socialis Cherchi & Schröder, Radiomura cautica Senowbari-Daryan & Schäfer, Perturbatacrusta leini Schlagintweit & Gawlick, Taumathoporella parvovesiculifera (Raineri)], foraminifera [Bramkampella arabica Redmond, Coscinoconus alpinus (Leupold), Coscinoconus delphinensis (Arnaud-Vanneau et al.), Coscinoconus sagittarius (Arnaud-Vanneau et al.), Frentzenella involuta (Mantsurova), Protopeneroplis striata Weynschenk, Protopeneroplis ultragranulata Gorbatchik] and pelagic microorganisms (Calpionella alpina Lorenz).

The identified microfacies types indicate that carbonate material was deposited in two distinct depositional settings. The first one includes slope to basin areas while the second one comprises inner platform depositional environments. The presence of abundant C. alpina and various representatives of the genus Coscinoconus (C. delphinensis, C. sagittarius) indicates that deposition continued in the area at least until the lower Berriasian.  

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Education and Research, CNCS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P1-1.1-PD-2019-0456, within PNCDI III

 References  

Patrulius D (1976) Upper Jurassic−Lower Cretaceous carbonate rocks in the eastern part of the Getic Carbonate Platform and the adjacent flysch troughs. In: Patrulius D, Drăgănescu A, Baltreș A, Popescu B, Rădan S (eds) Carbonate Rocks and Evaporites-Guidebook. International Colloquium on Carbonate Rocks and Evaporites, Guidebook Series 15, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Bucharest, pp 71-82

Săndulescu, M., 1964. Geological structure of the Postăvarul-Runcu Massif (Brașov Mountains) (in Romanian). Anuarul Comitetului Geologic, 34 (2): 382–422.

Săndulescu M, Patrulius D, Ștefănescu M (1972 a) Geological Map of Romania, scale 1:50 000, Brașov Sheet, 111 a (in Romanian). Institutul Geologic, București

How to cite: Mircescu, C. V., Bucur, I. I., and Pleș, G.: Upper Jurassic – Lower Cretaceous limestones from the easternmost Getic Carbonate Platform (Southern Carpathians, Romania). Microfacies, microfossils and depositional environments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4119, 2022.

The culmination of climate cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, known as the Terminal Eocene Event (TEE), forced the eustatic sea level fall crucial for isolation of the Paratethys from the Tethys Ocean. The isolated, northern marginal region contained starved Carpathian Flysch basins characterised by reduced circulation, dysaerobic bottom conditions and increased influx of riverine freshwater. The Cergowa Beds (Lower Oligocene) serve as an example of the icehouse period-related deposition of sandstones and subordinate sandstones-mudstones emplaced by sediment gravity flows in a predominantly anoxic depository dominated by dark shales and associated fine-grained facies of the Menilite Beds. Autochthonous calcareous nannoplankton species indicative of brackish water conditions reflect the Cergowa basin isolation and strong influence by freshwater influx during the zone NP23. This stage was dominated by high volume, high-density sediment gravity flows, occasionally triggered by hyperpycnal effluents. Coalified terrestrial organic matter, especially abundant in the proximal sector and including tree trunk fragments up to 2 m in length, suggests direct connection existed between the fluvial supply and redeposition by sediment gravity flows, probably via a shelf-edge delta supplying the Cergowa basin. The marginal character of the Cergowa basin enables to detect even subtle episodes as: (i) the CCD fluctuations, reflecting coccolithophorid-rich productivity, which is recorded as the laminated pelagic Tylawa Limestones, or (ii) local slope disequilibria reflected by hybrid flows interpreted as resulting from synsedimentary tectonic deformations of the basin floor. Generally, the Alpine orogenic movements enhanced the basin isolation and shoaling by tectonic uplift of the source area. However, the late stage of the Cergowa basin development, dated by the nannoplankton zone NP24, represents an open sea realm supplied by turbidity currents of decreasing density, with time suppressed and finally replaced by the anoxic sediments of the Menilite Beds type. Therefore, the deepening of the marine environment progressed against the prevailing global cooling and continuing eustatic sea-level fall. This apparent discrepancy emphasises the importance of the regional tectonic deformations of the basin that superseded the global climatic influence.

How to cite: Pszonka, J. and Wendorff, M.: Interplay of global climatic and regional tectonic controls in marginal basins, with an example of the Cergowa Beds deposition (Outer Carpathians) during the Oligocene icehouse, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4237, 2022.

Climate-controlled sea-level rise and fall have important effects on the depositional processes of strata. During periods of widespread glaciation, climate cycles influence sea-level rise and fall by controlling ice sheet growth and melting. The Late Cretaceous period was characterized by a typical greenhouse climate, and evidence for the presence of ice is strongly debated. However, the sedimentary record shows short-term larger sea-level fluctuations, and there is growing evidence for aquifer-eustasy (Sames et al. 2020) as an additional mechanism controlling sea-level rise and fall during this period. Field observations, microscopic observations, and analytical studies on upper Santonian to lower Campanian coal-bearing strata of the Gosau Group in the Northern Calcareous Alps (Hofer et al. 2011) have led to the identification of marginal marine mixed carbonate-siliciclastic cycles. Coal layers and lacustrine fine-grained sediments are present and attest to continental sedimentation with raised groundwater table, whereas intermittent marine strata with foraminifera and calcareous nannoplankton give evidence for marine incursions and high sea-level intervals. In a frame of a University of Vienna project, such Upper Cretaceous coal-bearing cycles in European basins will be investigated in detail to infer regional and Tethyan-wide controlling processes on sea-level and groundwater-table.

How to cite: Xiang, X., Wagreich, M., and Draganits, E.: Investigating Greenhouse climate control on coal-bearing cycles in the Tethyan Upper Cretaceous Gosau Group (Northern Calcareous Alps, Austria), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4298, 2022.

This study investigates the Paleogene deep-water depositional system of the Gosau Group at Gams, Styria (Austria). The examined sections of Danian to Ypresian age (NP1-NP12) comprise sediments of the Nierental and Zwieselalm formations. Four deep-water clastics facies assemblages were encountered, (1) carbonate-poor turbidites, (2) carbonate-rich turbidites, (3) marl-bearing turbidites and (4) a marl-dominated facies. Slump beds and mass flow deposits are common in all facies.

The examined sections predominantly consist of sandy and silty graded beds, including fine breccia layers at the base, to silty shales or claystones on top. Normal grading, lamination, amalgamation of sandy beds and bioturbation are characteristic for all sections. The thickness of sandstone beds varies strongly from only centimeters to several meters, but in general, sandy beds get thicker at sections dated at late Selandian age or younger. Within thinner beds Bouma Tbcd intervals are present. Thus, most sections contain sequences of thin to medium-bedded, fine-grained turbidites.

Based on heavy mineral, thin section, microprobe, and paleoflow analyses, provenance was from the surrounding Northern Calcareous Alps (NCA) rocks and exhuming metamorphic Upper Austroalpine units to the south. Provenance indexes based on heavy mineral assemblages indicate the dominance of an upper greenschist to lower amphibolite facies source of the investigated sediments. In addition, biogenic-calcareous material was delivered by adjacent contemporaneous shelf zones.

The sedimentary depocenter was situated at the slope of the incipient Alpine orogenic wedge, in frontal parts of the NCA, facing the subducting Penninic Ocean/Alpine Tethys. The evolution of the Gams Basin was connected to the eoalpine and mesoalpine orogeny, and the adjunctive transpressional setting. The Gams slope basin provided a fairly small depositional area and accommodation space on the incipient alpine orogenic wedge, and the pervasive tectonic deformation of the NCA destroyed and obscured important features of the formerly confined source-to-sink system. However, the Gams deep-water depositional system is interpreted as an aggrading or prograding submarine fan, deposited into a small confined slope basin, positioned along an active continental margin, bound and influenced by (strike-slip) faults, related to crustal shortening. The development of the Gams slope basin and its infilling sequences was mainly dominated by tectonism and sediment supply, rather than by eustatic sea-level fluctuations. General greenhouse conditions, with enhanced chemical weathering under seasonal conditions are assumed for the entire Gosau Group of Gams (Upper Cretaceous to Eocene), which enhanced erosion and facilitated a greater terrestrial sediment supply. Particularly an increased input of siliciclastics around the PETM is noticeable, including significant numbers of sandy turbidites. The basin was cut off during the Eocene due to renewed orogeny. A Quaternary analogue for the Paleogene basin setting of the Gams area is represented by the Santa Monica Basin in the California Continental Borderland.

How to cite: Koukal, V. and Wagreich, M.: The Paleogene Gosau Group of Gams slope basin of the incipient Eastern Alpine orogenic wedge (Austria), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4589, 2022.

EGU22-4796 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Quantifying volcanism and organic carbon burial across Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 

Nina M. Papadomanolaki, Niels A.G.M. van Helmond, Heiko Paelike, Appy Sluijs, and Caroline P. Slomp

Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (ca. 94 Ma; OAE2) was one of the largest Mesozoic carbon cycle perturbations, but associated carbon emissions, primarily from the Caribbean large igneous province (LIP) and marine burial fluxes, are poorly constrained. Here, we use the carbon cycle box model LOSCAR-P to quantify the role of LIP volcanism and enhanced marine organic carbon (Corg) burial as constrained by the magnitude and shape of the positive stable carbon isotope (δ13C) excursion (CIE) in the exogenic carbon pool and atmospheric pCO2 reconstructions. In our best fit scenario, two pulses of volcanic carbon input—0.065 Pg C yr–1 over 170 k.y. and 0.075 Pg C yr–1 over 40 k.y., separated by an 80 k.y. interval with an input of 0.02 Pg C yr–1—are required to simulate observed changes in δ13C and pCO2. Reduced LIP activity and Corg burial lead to pronounced pCO2 reductions at the termination of both volcanic pulses, consistent with widespread evidence for cooling and a temporal negative trend in the global exogenic δ13C record. Finally, we show that observed leads and lags between such features in the records and simulations are explained by differences in the response time of components of the carbon cycle to volcanic forcing. 


How to cite: Papadomanolaki, N. M., van Helmond, N. A. G. M., Paelike, H., Sluijs, A., and Slomp, C. P.: Quantifying volcanism and organic carbon burial across Oceanic Anoxic Event 2, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4796, 2022.

EGU22-4815 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Eocene seasonality resolved by coupled Ba/Ca and stable oxygen isotope ratios in bivalve shells 

Jorit F. Kniest, Amelia Davies, Jonathan A. Todd, Julia D. Sigwart, David Evans, Jens Fiebig, Silke Voigt, and Jacek Raddatz

The Eocene, as the warmest epoch during the Cenozoic, has received much attention as it can inform us about the features of global warmth, highly relevant to a “high-CO2” future. However, there is still a lack of knowledge regarding some key features of global warm climates, such as how higher global temperatures might have affected the duration and intensity of seasonality.  Furthermore, recognizing seasonal cycles is essential when interpreting proxy data and reconstructing paleo climate, e.g. in order to understand inter-annual bias between proxies. 

In the current study the seasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and fresh water input into the Anglo-Paris Basin (subjacent areas of the Paleo-North Sea) was investigated. Marginal seas, like the Paleo North Sea, are an important intersection between the continental and marine realm, and are especially sensitive to short-term climate variations.

In order to resolve seasonal and perennial changes in SST and freshwater balance, we measured Ba/Ca, δ18O, and the clumped isotopic composition (∆47) of exceptionally well-preserved fossil molluscs. Although δ18O is commonly used for the reconstruction of temperature, its calculation often assumes a constant δ18O value of seawater, which might not be true on seasonal scales and/or within swallow marine basins. In this context, ∆47 was employed to determine the average temperature amplitude, due to its independence from δ18Oseawater. Additionally, Ba/Ca was used to account for periods with enhanced fresh water input, because barium mostly enters the oceans via fluvial systems and could therefor indicate seasonally enhanced and isotopic lighter fresh water input.            

The bivalve species Venericor planicosta was employed as proxy archive, due to its long life span (10-20 years) and its wide distribution in the Anglo-Paris Basin during the Eocene. The pristinely preserved, aragonitic bivalve shells were sampled by micro-milling (δ18O, ∆47), as well as, laser ablation (Ba/Ca), to generate proxy records with high temporal resolution.

The isotopic data reveal well pronounced seasonal oscillation with a sinusoidal shape and a maximum difference of 2‰, from -3,5‰ to -5,5‰. On average, the inter-annual variation of the δ18O record is around 1‰. The Ba/Ca record, on the other hand, shows a flat background with recurring large and sharp peaks. While the baseline Ba/Ca values are around 20 µmol/mol, the peaks can reach up to 300 µmol/mol. The peaks largely fall together with periods of depleted δ18O values. These results hint to a possible seasonal bias of temperature records in the Anglo-Paris basin based purely on δ18O, due to variable δ18O of seawater. This is further implied by the back-calculation of δ18Oseawater from ∆47 measurements, revealing a range from 2‰ to -4‰. 

How to cite: Kniest, J. F., Davies, A., Todd, J. A., Sigwart, J. D., Evans, D., Fiebig, J., Voigt, S., and Raddatz, J.: Eocene seasonality resolved by coupled Ba/Ca and stable oxygen isotope ratios in bivalve shells, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4815, 2022.

Lower and Middle Jurassic sedimentary deposits in southern Germany have accumulated in a shallow-marine shelf environment and are typically dominated by clayey lithologies with minor occurrences of sandstones and limestones. The sedimentary evolution and paleoclimatic significance of these poorly exposed deposits often remain largely unexplored. Here we present a suite of high-resolution x-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning data from southern Germany covering the Upper Toarcian and Aalenian stages. The overall objective of this study is to identify Transgressive-Regressive cycles based on the analysis of three cores obtained during scientific drilling campaigns in 2019-2021. Cores have been analyzed with an Avaatech XRF Core Scanner at a 10 mm sampling interval, an energy of 10 keV and a current of 500 µA to measure element intensities ranging from aluminium through iron. Resulting trends in elemental ratios indicative for subtle grain-size variations such as Si/Al are used to reconstruct shoreline trajectories and establish a sequence stratigraphic framework (see Thöle et al. 2020). Particularly the thick and largely homogenous Opalinuston Formation appears suitable in that respect, likely resulting from extraordinarily high sedimentation rates during the lower Aalenian in southern Germany, thus providing a complete but unexplored archive of paleoclimatic signals.

 

References:

Thöle, H., Bornemann, A., Heimhofer, U., Luppold, F. W., Blumenberg, M., Dohrmann, R., & Erbacher, J. (2020). Using high‐resolution XRF analyses as a sequence stratigraphic tool in a mudstone‐dominated succession (Early Cretaceous, Lower Saxony Basin, Northern Germany). The Depositional Record, 6(1), 236-258.

How to cite: Mann, T., Bornemann, A., and Erbacher, J.: A sequence-stratigraphic framework for the Toarcian – Aalenian from southern Germany based on x-ray fluorescence core scanning data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4877, 2022.

EGU22-5602 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Dominance of Pacific Sourced Deep Water in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean during the last glacials 

Moritz Hallmaier, Eva M. Rückert, Jasmin M. Link, Laura Lütkes, and Norbert Frank

The deep Southern Ocean (SO) circulation is of major significance for the understanding of the ocean´s impact on Earth’s climate as uptake and release of CO­­­2 depend strongly on the redistribution of well and poorly ventilated water masses.

Neodymium isotopes preserved in deep sea sediment have proven useful to study the deep ocean circulation and water mass provenance thanks to basin scale isotope gradients between the Pacific and the North Atlantic. Here we present novel neodymium isotope data (εNd) of three sediment cores in 2.8, 3.3 and 3.6 km depth in the Atlantic sector of the SO to assess the presence of old and poorly ventilated Pacific sourced Deep Water (PDW) during the past 150 ka.

The sediment cores indicate dramatic temporal changes of εNd spanning a range of 7.7 ε-units from -1.0 to -8.3. While the εNd variability of the two deeper cores is driven by changes in ocean circulation, the shallowest drilling site is likely influenced by a local source of radiogenic Nd, such as weathering of volcanic material.

During peak glacial periods with maximum ice extent and a shoaled AMOC we observe radiogenic εNd values of ~-2.5 to -3.5. This confirms a predominance of glacial PDW at depths of >3 km with proportions close to 100% and thus increasing the water volume portion with enhanced respired carbon. We further advocate for the persistent presence of PDW even during interglacials although with a much smaller proportion.

Hence, our results enforce the leading role of the SO in storing and reinjecting respired CO2 into the deep Atlantic Ocean and the Atmosphere during glacial-interglacial terminations.

How to cite: Hallmaier, M., Rückert, E. M., Link, J. M., Lütkes, L., and Frank, N.: Dominance of Pacific Sourced Deep Water in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean during the last glacials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5602, 2022.

EGU22-5761 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Insights from the first detailed record of Late Cretaceous seawater lithium isotopic composition 

Sandra J. Huber, Vanessa Schlidt, Linus Lenk, H.-Michael Seitz, Jacek Raddatz, and Silke Voigt

The late Cretaceous climate is represented by an 8-10 °C decline of global mean temperatures that terminated global warmth of mid-Cretaceous times. Causal mechanisms of the cooling are still not well constrained and discussed in the interplay of reduced volcanic greenhouse gas emission and intensified silicate weathering as a global carbon cycle feedback. The lithium isotopic composition (δ7Li) of marine carbonates is a proxy for the chemical weathering intensity of silicate rocks, and thus provides information about the role of silicate weathering as thermostat and sink for atmospheric CO2.

Here, we present the first detailed chalk-derived Late Cretaceous δ7Li record (91-66 Ma) of the boreal white chalk in Northern Germany (Lägerdorf-Kronsmoor-Hemmoor) and from sections in southern England as archive for the seawater lithium isotopic composition. In the course of this study, we will also analyze the archives of skeletal calcite from brachiopods, belemnites and rudists, which should enable us to identify systematic offsets among different calcifiers related to vital effects by the direct comparison of fossilized shells and their surrounding sediments.

To handle the potential impact of clay contamination in bulk carbonates, we applied a pre-leaching and leaching procedure with 1 M ammonium acetate and 0.05 M nitric acid. The method was tested for a 1.85 Ma old sample of coccolith ooze from the Manihiki Plateau (equatorial West Pacific Ocean), which has consistent δ7Li values and shows a systematic negative 3-4 ‰ offset to modern seawater. In addition, the degree of potentially leached silicates is monitored by the analysis of E/Ca ratios, like Al/Ca.

In total, our late Cretaceous lithium isotope record shows a trend of rising δ7Li values between +16 and +25 ‰. Superimposed, the curve displays a rise in the Santonian, a local maximum in the early Campanian followed by a drop to a local minimum in the late Campanian. Subsequently, the δ7Li values rise again towards elevated values in the Maastrichtian. Overall, the shape of the δ7Li curve strongly resembles the evolution of deep-sea temperatures based on benthic oxygen isotopes suggesting a close link between climate and weathering. Thereby, more positive δ7Li values correspond to cooling periods and the late Campanian lowering of δ7Li values parallels the intermittent deep-sea warming. Such a pattern points towards a strong relationship between the congruency of silicate weathering and climate on a multi-million year time scale.

How to cite: Huber, S. J., Schlidt, V., Lenk, L., Seitz, H.-M., Raddatz, J., and Voigt, S.: Insights from the first detailed record of Late Cretaceous seawater lithium isotopic composition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5761, 2022.

EGU22-6334 | Presentations | SSP2.1

CycloNet: European Cyclostratigraphy Network 

Philippe Claeys, Matthias Sinnesael, David De Vleeschouwer, and Christian Zeeden

The study of astronomical climate forcing and the application of cyclostratigraphy experienced a spectacular growth over the last decades. In 2018, the first Cyclostratigraphy Intercomparison Project (CIP) workshop constituted the first attempt to compare different methodological approaches and unite the global community around standard, uniform and reliable procedures. Two major conclusions were: [1] There is a need for further organization of the cyclostratigraphic community (e.g. to streamline different methodologies); [2] Cyclostratigraphy is a trainable skill, but currently many universities lack specific resources for training and education. Today, a regular newsletter, a dedicated free open-access journal “Cyclostratigraphy and Rhythmic Climate Change (CRCC)”, a scientific podcast titled CycloPod, and an educational website “www.cyclostratigraphy.org” connect the cyclostratigraphy community. The newly created CycloNet (Research Foundation Flanders FWO Funding) expands this effort into a real and sustainable scientific research network with partners from all around Europe, and open to the global community. At the same time, CycloNet creates a platform for streamlining and integrating new multi-disciplinary approaches. The main scientific targets for CycloNet in the next five years are: [1] Set up a diverse and sustainable community structure, relying on exchange, interaction and training, [2] Boost research by novel methodological approaches applying advanced signal processing techniques, [3] Organize a second Cyclostratigraphic Intercomparison Project. With this poster, we reach out to the broader community to exchange ideas on concepts and activities that CycloNet can help to develop further towards the future.

How to cite: Claeys, P., Sinnesael, M., De Vleeschouwer, D., and Zeeden, C.: CycloNet: European Cyclostratigraphy Network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6334, 2022.

EGU22-6583 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Marine mollusk shells record the seasonal variations of temperature during the Mid Eocene Climatic Optimum in the Paris Basin 

Loïc Marlot, Damien Huyghe, Justine Briais, Laurent Emmanuel, Mathieu Daëron, Christine Flehoc, Didier Merle, and Olivier Aguerre

During the Middle-Late Eocene, the Earth transitioned from a greenhouse to icehouse period. Within this period, a warming phase of 500 kyr called MECO (Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum) took place at the beginning of the Bartonian (from 40.5 Ma to 40 Ma - C18n). This event is characterized by a negative shift in the δ18O profile of benthic foraminifera associated with an increase of 4 to 6 °C in surface and deep ocean waters. The peak of the MECO is also characterized by a short δ13C negative excursion at 40.0 Myr during an overall increasing trend of δ13C. This positive trend of the δ13C curve appears to be related to an atmospheric increase in the pCO2, but the causes remains unclear.

Unlike the oceanic domain, few datas exist for the characterization of the MECO in coastal areas. Additionally, important component of the climatic context, such as the seasonal gradient of temperature, remain unknown. To unravel these uncertainties, this work focuses on the nearshore Eocene sedimentary records of the Paris Basin, which presents an important and remarkably well preserved paleobiodiversity of marine mollusk shells. Previous studies have confirmed that the MECO event is well recorded in Bartonian sediments, but due to several uncertainties, its stratigraphic position remains to be specified. Here we present a composite section that spans a stratigraphic interval covering the middle Lutetian (falunière de Grignon outcrop) and the Bartonian (Horizon de Mont-Saint Martin Formation, le Guépelle section and the Sables de Cresnes Formation). Thus, we combine different proxies provided by 18O, 13C and ∆47 analyses of marine mollusk shells sampled in these sections in order to clarify the stratigraphic position of the MECO in the sedimentary succession of the Paris Basin and to constrain the climatic expression of this hyperthermal event in shallow marine environment. 

Isotopic analyses were performed on the shells of 3 Bartonian mollusks species: 2 bivalves represented by Bicorbula gallica and Crassostrea cucullaris and 1 gastropod represented by Torquesia sulcifera. Stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) results both show a characteristic negative excursion at the end of the Sables du Guépelle formation, in the lower part of the Bartonian. Clumped isotope analyses were performed on some specimens of B. gallica and T. sulcifera in order to better constrain the composition of δ18Ow throughout the stratigraphic interval studied. These results indicate significant decreases in local δ18Ow over the lifetime of most individuals, interpreted as large infra-annual variations in salinity. Paleotemperatures calculated from the previously constrained δ18Ocarbonate increase by 4 to 10 °C during the MECO event , while the seasonal temperature variation decreases from 11-13 °C to 8 °C during the negative isotopic excursion of the end of the Sables du Guépelle formation.

Based on these new results, we propose that the MECO is recorded in the top of the Sables du Guépelle formation marked by a warming period and a lower seasonal temperature gradient. These results lead to a better chimio-chronostratigraphic calibration of the Bartonian deposits of the Paris Basin.

How to cite: Marlot, L., Huyghe, D., Briais, J., Emmanuel, L., Daëron, M., Flehoc, C., Merle, D., and Aguerre, O.: Marine mollusk shells record the seasonal variations of temperature during the Mid Eocene Climatic Optimum in the Paris Basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6583, 2022.

EGU22-6605 | Presentations | SSP2.1

The Bassa Nera pond (Central Pyrenees), a potential sentinel of climatic changes over the last 15,000 years. 

Arnau Blasco, Miguel Angel Calero, Valentí Rull, Núria Cañellas-Boltà, Sandra Garcés, Encarnación Montoya, and Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia

Over the last decades, significant increases in temperature and in the incidence of extreme climatic events have been registered in the Iberian Peninsula. Environmental changes  are easily recorded in high mountain lakes, due to their sensitivity and isolated location. Since paleolimnological information can be very useful for planning and modelling future climate change scenarios, it is necessary to find suitable lakes and test their sensitivity to current and past climatic shifts in order to adequately fulfill these tasks.

In order to test the suitability of the Bassa Nera pond as an indicator of global climatic change, this study aims to examine the variations of different  paleoindicators over the last 15,000 years. The variations of paleoenvironmental data can be then compared with the changes of different biological indicators (chironomids, diatoms, pollen), to find likely correlations that can be used to figure out future climatic scenarios and to provide information for environmental management.

For this study, a core of approximately 1,100 cm was extracted (PATAM 12-A-14) and dated with radiometric techniques. Sedimentological analysis was performed by applying conventional stratigraphic techniques and X-ray fluorescence methods. The variability of the sedimentary sequence allowed us to reconstruct the different climatic events. The pond recorded a long sedimentary sequence encompassing the last 15,000 years. The sedimentological analysis allowed us to establish 5 different stratigraphic units which we have separated in two principal sections. The first section is formed by organic rich facies while the remains of the core is composed mainly of clays and silts facies with some sand layers.

These data will be very useful to establish which and how past climatic events have affected this high mountain basin, when reconstructing the evolution of main paleolimnological indicators of environmental change. And in conjunction with subsequent studies, it will establish whether or not the suitability of the Bassa Nera as a sentinel of climatic global change. This in turn will allow the  establishment of a network of sentinel lakes in the Iberian Peninsula.

How to cite: Blasco, A., Calero, M. A., Rull, V., Cañellas-Boltà, N., Garcés, S., Montoya, E., and Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.: The Bassa Nera pond (Central Pyrenees), a potential sentinel of climatic changes over the last 15,000 years., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6605, 2022.

EGU22-7244 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Quaternary seismic stratigraphy of the Flemish Bight (southern North Sea): a re-evaluation 

Ruth Plets, Marc De Batist, Tine Missiaen, Maikel De Clercq, David Garcia, Thomas Mestdagh, Wim Versteeg, Simon Fitch, Rachel Harding, Vince Gaffney, Freek Busschers, and Sytze van Heteren

New high-resolution seismic data (Sparker) and very-high-resolution parametric echosounder (PES) data acquired in an area of the southern North Sea (the Flemish Bight) reveal its Quaternary seismic stratigraphy in unprecedented detail. The identified seismo-stratigraphic units and geomorphological features have been examined with the view to better understand the Quaternary evolution of the southern North Sea.

Seven acoustic units were recognised, including Lower Pleistocene deltaic sediments, Eemian to lower Weichselian shallow marine to coastal (lagoonal) clay-silt-sands, and Holocene coastal peat layers overlain by intertidal and marine sediments. Four erosional events were identified, two of which can be traced as regionally occurring surfaces, and two occurring as localised incisions. Mapping of geomorphological features revealed potential Elsterian moraines in the UK sector, an Elsterian ice-pushed ridge in the Dutch sector and possible permafrost-related structures (probably dating to MIS3).  Seven newly dated peat samples, acquired near a tidal sand ridge known as the Brown Bank from depths between 31 m and 34 m below sea level and dating to between 9.5 and 10.9 cal ka BP, indicate that this area was terrestrial during the early Holocene.

The results form the basis to further improve the regional Quaternary stratigraphic framework of the area, to better understand the region’s (de)glacial history, to enhance sea-level reconstructions and to examine the area’s geographical importance for human occupation during Prehistory.

How to cite: Plets, R., De Batist, M., Missiaen, T., De Clercq, M., Garcia, D., Mestdagh, T., Versteeg, W., Fitch, S., Harding, R., Gaffney, V., Busschers, F., and van Heteren, S.: Quaternary seismic stratigraphy of the Flemish Bight (southern North Sea): a re-evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7244, 2022.

EGU22-7766 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Charophyte biostratigraphy of the Lower Cretaceous (Wealden) Cuchia section, Basque-Cantabrian Chain, North Spain: Interest for regional stratigraphic correlation 

Khaled Trabelsi, Anna Tamara Mai, Benjamin Sames, Jens O. Herrle, and Frank Wiese

A 55 meters thick section at Cuchia, Basque-Cantabrian Chain, North Spain, mainly formed by Lower Cretaceous Wealden facies, has been intensively investigated from the micropalaeontological viewpoint. The carbonate beds intercalated within this series yield a rich and diverse charophyte assemblages of high biostratigraphic interest, which could be studied for the first time after successful preparation following the acetolysis method.

Twenty-two charophyte taxa were identified forming two distinct charophyte assemblages belonging to two successive charophyte biozones. The first charophyte assemblage, from the lower part of the studied section, is composed of Echinochara lazarii, Atopochara trivolvis var. triquetra, Globator mallardii var. trochiliscoides, Clavator grovesii var. gautieri, Clavator harrisii var. dongjingensis, C. harrisii var. harrisii, C. calcitrapus var. jiangluoensis, C. calcitrapus var. calcitrapus, Ascidiella stellata var. stellata, A. triquetra, Hemiclavator neimongolensis var. neimongolensis, H. neimongolensis var. posticecaptus, Mesochara voluta gr. voluta and Favargella sp. According to Pérez-Cano et al. (2021), such a charophyte assemblage belongs to the new Eurasian “Hemiclavator neimongolensis var. neimongolensis” biozone, late early Barremian–early late Barremian in age as calibrated by Sr isotope stratigraphy and by correlation with marine biostratigraphy.

The second charophyte assemblage, which occurs in the upper part of the studied section is composed of the species E. lazarii, A. trivolvis var. triquetra, A. trivolvis var. trivolvis, C. grovesii var. jiuquanensis, C. harrisii var. dongjingensis, C. harrisii var. harrisii, C. harrisii var. reyi, Ascidiella cruciata, H. neimongolensis var. neimongolensis, H. neimongolensis var. posticecaptus, Mesochara voluta gr. voluta, Munieria grambastii, Clavatoraxis sp., Charaxis sp.  and Tolypella sp. vel. Mesochara sp. According to Pérez-Cano et al. (2021), such a charophyte assemblage belongs to the new Eurasian “Clavator grovesii var. jiuquanensis” biozone, late Barremian–early Aptian in age as calibrated by Sr isotope stratigraphy and by correlation with marine biostratigraphy.

As the overlaying succeeding limestones is early Aptian in age, our results allow constraining the chronostratigraphy of the Wealden series at Cuchia section to the late early Barremian– late Barremian, instead of Hauterivian–Barremian (Najarro et al., 2011) as previously thought, leading for a more detailed stratigraphic correlation of the Cuchia section to equivalent units of the Iberian plate, especially from the Iberian Chain and the Pyrenees.

References.

Najarro, M., Rosales, I., Martin-Chivelet, J. (2011). Major palaeoenvironmental perturbation in an Early Aptian carbonate platform: Prelude of the Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a. Sedimentary Geology 235, 50–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cretres.2021.104934

Pérez-Cano, J., Bover-Arnal, T., Martín-Closas, C. (2021). Barremian–early Aptian charophyte biostratigraphy revisited. Newsletters on Stratigraphy (in press). DOI: 10.1127/nos/2021/0662

How to cite: Trabelsi, K., Mai, A. T., Sames, B., Herrle, J. O., and Wiese, F.: Charophyte biostratigraphy of the Lower Cretaceous (Wealden) Cuchia section, Basque-Cantabrian Chain, North Spain: Interest for regional stratigraphic correlation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7766, 2022.

EGU22-8150 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Litho- and cyclostratigraphy of the Aalenian Opalinusclay Formation in the Swabian Alb deduced from downhole logging data 

Katharina Leu, Christian Zeeden, Thomas Wonik, Thomas Mann, Jochen Erbacher, and André Bornemann

From 2019 to 2021, three cores were drilled at different locations in the southern German Swabian Alb as part of the SEPIA project (Sequence Stratigraphy of the Aalenian in Southern Germany). They comprise sediments of 200 to 250 m length and are penetrating Lower and Middle Jurassic strata from the Pliensbachian to Bathonian stages (~ 190-166 Ma). The aim of this project is the development of a sequence stratigraphic model of the South German Basin at the transition from the Lower to Middle Jurassic time. Conclusions should be drawn towards the source area of the sediments as well as on the influence of sea level fluctuations on sedimentation.

Today, the Swabian Alb is a SW-NE trending mountain chain consisting of mainly carbonate rocks, and is one of the most distinctive regions in Germany where Jurassic strata is cropping out. During the middle Jurassic, Europe was almost completely covered by a shallow epi-continental sea including several small emerging areas or islands, located at latitudes about 15° lower than today. Southern Germany experienced predominant deposition of fine clastic sediments in a tropical climate. The most common sediments of this period are dark clays and oolithic ironstones, whereas condensation and discontinuity surfaces occur in many instances. Accommodation space for these sediments was not only generated by changes in sea level, but also by continuing subsidence of the area, explaining the inhomogeneous thickness and changes in facies of the sediments.

The geophysical downhole logging data of the stratigraphic record is used to develop a lithological classification and correlation of the boreholes sediments by the application of a cluster analysis to the data. Furthermore, the downhole logging data is used to perform cyclostratigraphy in selected intervals. The focus of the intervals chosen for cyclostratigraphy lies on the Aalenian stage, as this stage holds the most continuous and extended record in all three boreholes. Predicted timespans of these intervals yield similar results of ~800-1100 ka for all three boreholes and might provide a new benchmark for progressive improvement, especially for cyclostratigraphic analyses of the Lower Aalenian Opalinusclay Formation.

How to cite: Leu, K., Zeeden, C., Wonik, T., Mann, T., Erbacher, J., and Bornemann, A.: Litho- and cyclostratigraphy of the Aalenian Opalinusclay Formation in the Swabian Alb deduced from downhole logging data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8150, 2022.

EGU22-8721 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Semi-3D stratigraphic architecture of a siliciclastic shallow-marine platform: Insights from the Ktawa Group (Late Ordovician) in Morocco 

Déborah Harlet, Guilhem Amin Douillet, Jean-François Ghienne, Pierre Dietrich, Chloé Bouscary, Philippe Razin, and Fritz Schlunegger

A semi-3D stratigraphic architecture of the Lower Ktawa Group, deposited during the early Late Ordovician on the northern Gondwana platform in a shallow marine environment, was investigated in the Anti-Atlas. The logging of 42 sections reveals that the Lower Ktawa is dominated by shales, punctuated by fine to coarse sandstones forming successive cuestas. Here, focus is put on three main sand cuestas recording major sea-level drops.

The lowermost cuesta (Foum-Zguid Member) outcrops along >85 km, and dips southward. Three facies associations albeit with complex lateral relationships were distinguished: 1. In the West, coarse-grained cross-bedded sandstones. 2. In the central part, sandstones dominated by Hummocky-Cross-Stratifications (HCS), in amalgamated beds towards the West but isolated within shales towards the East. 3. In the East, dominance of highly bioturbated sandstones. A second cuesta (“Tissint Member”) outcrops exclusively on the western part of the transect, approximately 25-50 m above the Foum-Zguid cuesta, and also dips South-southwestward. This 40 m-thick sandstone complex has a sharp base and is composed of fine to coarse cross-bedded sandstones. At its northeastern limit, the 40 m-thick succession disappears within 3.5 km. The upper cuesta (Bou-Hajaj Member, 5-40 m thick) is found ca.160 m above the base of the Ktawa Group and outcrops in the eastern zone of the study area. Its southern part is characterized by the thickest stack of sandstones, organized in a shallowing upward trend, and comprises HCS-beds and channelized structures a few meters in width. The eastern part is dominated by coarse, bioturbated, cross-bedded sandstones lacking shallowing upward stacking patterns. Its dip is northward, in the opposite direction to the underlying two members. Moreover, from satellite images, a clinothem dipping towards the Northeast is identified, together with the dissociation of the cuesta in two sets pinching out northwestward.

On a regional scale, the directly underlying First Bani Group was reconstructed as a shallow shelf having a northward oriented proximal-to-distal trend (Marante, 2008). A study of the Ktawa Group ca. 200 km Northeast of our study zone evidenced a southwestward proximal-to-distal trend (Meddour, 2016). Furthermore, a regional depocenter of the Ktawa Group is generally thought to occur eastward from our study.

Three interpretation lines are considered to reconcile these apparently contradictory observations: 1. A locally eastward oriented proximal-to-distal trend within a complex sequence stratigraphic framework including superimposed high-frequency cycles. 2. A range of source feeders that may be successively active along an irregular coastline, thereby forming lobes with opposite dispersal patterns. 3. An interplay of reactivation of Panafrican faults (Anti-Atlas/Ougarta) cannot be excluded and may have locally changed the place(s) of maximum accommodation space during deposition. It may also have induced the formation of shoals that would have been partially eroded and recycled. Thus, these apparently contradictory proximal-to-distal trends may actually depict a turning point in the re-organization of the basin predating the end-Ordovician glacial advance.

How to cite: Harlet, D., Douillet, G. A., Ghienne, J.-F., Dietrich, P., Bouscary, C., Razin, P., and Schlunegger, F.: Semi-3D stratigraphic architecture of a siliciclastic shallow-marine platform: Insights from the Ktawa Group (Late Ordovician) in Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8721, 2022.

EGU22-8915 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Geochronology of sediments as a tool to identify lost geological features - a case study from the Mesozoic sedimentary succession of the Kutch Basin, western India 

Angana Chaudhuri, István Dunkl, Jan Schönig, Hilmar von Eynatten, and Kaushik Das

Sedimentary successions capture the history of geological features and events observable on present-day earth surface as well as those exposed earlier but currently buried or lost to erosion. The Mesozoic rocks in the Kutch Basin (western India) deposited between Middle Jurassic and Early Cretaceous reveal interesting provenance information on lost orogens and buried basins. The southwesterly sediment transport direction indicates north and northwest of the Indian subcontinent as the source area. Detrital zircon and monazite U-Th-Pb geochronology identify dominant sediment input from source rocks equivalent to the late Neoproterozoic Pan-African orogeny (500–650 Ma) along with substantial input from those equivalent to the Cambro-Ordovician Bhimphedian (aka Kurgiakh) (400–500 Ma) orogeny. All other contributing source rocks (ranging from 700 Ma to 3300 Ma) are traceable to the source area following the sediment transport direction. However, outcrops of crystalline rocks with zircon and monazite ages corresponding to the dominant age components are virtually lacking. Rocks equivalent to the Pan-African orogeny are found only as sparse isolated outcrops in the source area. In contrast, this orogeny is well reported from the southern granulite terrain (India), Madagascar, Seychelles and Eastern Africa. Therefore, considering the position of continents during the Mesozoic and the predominance of a 500–650 Ma sediment source in the Kutch Basin, the Pan-African orogenic belt possibly extends to north and north-western India. The current dearth of these outcrops suggests extensive erosion during the Mesozoic greenhouse climate and/or burial under the Deccan Flood Basalts. The other dominant source (400–500 Ma), equivalent to the Bhimphedian orogeny, currently reported as isolated outcrops in the Himalayan-fold-thrust belt (northern India) might have been disturbed and buried by thrusting during the Cenozoic Himalayan orogeny. This study also reveals a large gap of nearly 280 Ma between the youngest detrital zircon (458 Ma) and the depositional age (~170 Ma). This gap may be explained by (i) input of recycled sediment from an older basin, and/or (ii) absence of younger metamorphic events in the source area. The evidences of sediment recycling from thin-section petrography and ultra-stable heavy mineral assemblages (dominated by zircon, rutile and tourmaline) suggest the possibility of a so far unknown (buried or completely eroded) sedimentary basin older than the Kutch Basin. The on-going study of detrital rutile grains in these sediments may provide an alternative explanation for the 280 Ma gap by revealing lower temperature metamorphic events that are not recorded by U-Th-Pb ages of zircon and monazite.

How to cite: Chaudhuri, A., Dunkl, I., Schönig, J., von Eynatten, H., and Das, K.: Geochronology of sediments as a tool to identify lost geological features - a case study from the Mesozoic sedimentary succession of the Kutch Basin, western India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8915, 2022.

EGU22-9308 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Severe cooling of the Atlantic thermocline during the last glacial 

Marleen Lausecker, Freya Hemsing, Thomas Krengel, Julius Förstel, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Evan Cooper Border, Covadonga Orejas, Jürgen Titschak, Claudia Wienberg, Dierk Hebbeln, Anne-Marie Wefing, Paolo Montagna, Eric Douville, Lelia Matos, Jacek Raddatz, and Norbert Frank

The mean cooling of the global ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was recently estimated to 2.6°C using noble gases trapped in ice cores (1). The ocean, however, is highly heterogeneous with respect to its internal temperature varying both in latitude and water depth. While temperature changes in the deep ocean are small at about 2 - 3 °C (1,2), the upper ocean is more dynamic. Regional temperature anomalies of up to 7°C are predicted during the LGM compared to modern interior ocean temperature by global ocean circulation models (3). Due to the temperature drop to near freezing conditions and the global increase in salinity from ice sheet growth, the oceans’ deep interior became strongly haline stratified (2). Temperatures of the glacial ocean thermocline are, however, less well constrained.

Here, thermocline temperature reconstructions since the last glacial based on the Li/Mg ratio in cold-water coral skeletons are presented. The coral samples, collected from 300 - 1200 m water depths from different sites in the Atlantic (43°N to 25°S), reveal synchronous 5 - 7°C cooling during the last glacial period compared to today, as well as a dramatic shoaling of the thermocline. At the end of the LGM, warming of the upper thermocline ocean occurred early in the southern hemisphere followed by a fluctuating warming and thermocline deepening in the northern Hemisphere. This supports the oceanic climate seesaw proposed by Stocker and Johnson in 2003 (4). We thus propose dramatic changes in the export of polar waters towards the Equator and an enhanced subsurface ocean stratification leading to a mostly polar Atlantic with a shallow permanent thermocline during the glacial.

 

References:

1) Bereiter et al., Nature 553, 39-44 (2018).
2) Adkins et al., Science 298, 1769-1773 (2002).
3) Ballarotta et al., Clim. Past 9, 2669-2686 (2013).
4) Stocker and Johnsen, Paleoceanography 18, 1087 (2003).

How to cite: Lausecker, M., Hemsing, F., Krengel, T., Förstel, J., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., Border, E. C., Orejas, C., Titschak, J., Wienberg, C., Hebbeln, D., Wefing, A.-M., Montagna, P., Douville, E., Matos, L., Raddatz, J., and Frank, N.: Severe cooling of the Atlantic thermocline during the last glacial, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9308, 2022.

EGU22-9361 | Presentations | SSP2.1 | Highlight

“climatearchive.org”: 540 million years of climate data at your fingertips 

Sebastian Steinig, Tessa Alexander, Dan Lunt, Paul Valdes, Zak Duggan, Patrick Lee, Jakub Navratil, Ikenna Offokansi, and Matthew Swann

We can only fully understand the past, present and future climate changes by bringing together data and process understanding from a broad range of environmental sciences. In theory, climate modelling provides a wealth of data of great interest to a wide variety of disciplines (e.g., chemistry, geology, hydrology), but in practice, the large volume and complexity of these datasets often prevent direct access and therefore limit their benefits for large parts of our community.

We present the new online platform “climatearchive.org” to break down these barriers and provide intuitive and informative access to paleoclimate model data to our community. The current release enables interactive access to a recently published compilation of 109 HadCM3BL climate model simulations. Key climate variables (temperature, precipitation, vegetation and circulation) are displayed on a virtual globe in an intuitive three-dimensional environment and on a continuous time axis throughout the Phanerozoic. The software runs in any web browser — including smartphones — and promotes data exploration, appeals to students and generates public interest.

We also show current work on the next phase of the platform, which aims to develop new tools for integration into a more quantitative research workflow. These include easy online generation and download of maps and time series plots of the underlying monthly model data. The data can also be exported as global fields or CSV files for any user-selected location for further offline analysis, such as use in spreadsheets. Finally, we will discuss and outline future integration of new sources of model and geochemical proxy data to simplify and advance interdisciplinary paleoclimate research.

How to cite: Steinig, S., Alexander, T., Lunt, D., Valdes, P., Duggan, Z., Lee, P., Navratil, J., Offokansi, I., and Swann, M.: “climatearchive.org”: 540 million years of climate data at your fingertips, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9361, 2022.

EGU22-9471 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Timing and pacing of the Hangenberg Crisis (Devonian-Carboniferous Boundary) in the Chanxhe sections, Belgium 

Anne-Christine Da Silva, Léonard Franck, Michiel Arts, and Julien Denayer

The Hangenberg Crisis, at the Devonian-Carboniferous Boundary, severely affected the marine realm. The crisis is characterised by several events associated with change in the sedimentation and biotic extinctions and turnovers. The Hangenberg Black Shale event that recorded the extinction peak in the pelagic realm corresponds to a widespread development of oceanic anoxia and/or dysoxia. The Hangenberg Sandstone event is associated with an extinction of neritic fauna in shallow-water settings, including the final demise of several classical Devonian faunas (stromatoporoids, quasiendothyrid foraminifers, placoderms, etc.). The succession of these events is nowadays explained by a combination of sea level fluctuations (third order transgressive sequence, out-of-sequence regression) and global climatic changes. Through the identification of Milankovitch cycles in the Chanxhe record, we aim at getting a better understanding of the timing and orbital forcing of the different events of the Hangenberg Crisis in shallow-water settings.

The sedimentary record of the interval of interest at Chanxhe is composed of 16 m of alternating decimetre-thick carbonate beds with shaly siltstones, which displays a clear cyclicity. The carbonate-siliciclastic alternations (~0.8 m) are bundled into larger cycles (~5 m) which are separated by intervals dominated by the shaly facies. This is followed by 11 m of carbonate dominated lithology with thin shale layers displaying a less clear cyclicity with ~3 m thick cycles. Then the equivalent of the Hangenberg dark shales is recorded as two dark shaly intervals separated by a carbonate bed. After the Hangenberg dark shales, the section displays carbonates, with the Devonian Carboniferous boundary in massive carbonates 7 m above the top of the black shales.

Samples have been collected along the record every 10 cm which were measured by the portable X-Ray Fluorescence device (Tracer 5, Bruker), allowing to provide elemental data throughout the record. Spectral analysis is applied on Ca and Al, to identify the main cyclicity in the record. The 0.8 meter-thick limestone/shale alternations is clearly recorded in the Ca and Al records and are associated with precession cycles (18 kyr), while the 5 m-cycles are associated with short eccentricity (100 kyr). Prior to the Hangenberg anoxic events, the 100-kyr cycles became less clear and shorter (~ 3 m) which is interpreted as a minimum eccentricity. During the Hangenberg, the cyclicity returns. However, after the Hangenberg and near the Devonian Carboniferous boundary, the facies become very homogeneous, consisting of massively bedded carbonates with no observable cyclicity,  which is also  other contemporaneous sedimentary successions (e.g. China, Poland).   

 

How to cite: Da Silva, A.-C., Franck, L., Arts, M., and Denayer, J.: Timing and pacing of the Hangenberg Crisis (Devonian-Carboniferous Boundary) in the Chanxhe sections, Belgium, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9471, 2022.

EGU22-9593 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Aftermath of catastrophic flooding of a desiccated ocean basin 

Udara Amarathunga, Andrew Hogg, Eelco Rohling, Andrew Roberts, Katharine Grant, David Heslop, Pengxiang Hu, Diederik Liebrand, Thomas Westerhold, Xiang Zhao, and Stewart Gilmore

5.33 Million years ago, a mile-high marine cascade terminated the Messinian Salinity Crisis due to partial collapse of the Gibraltar arc/sill that isolated a largely desiccated Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean. Atlantic waters may have refilled the basin within 2 years. Prevailing hypotheses suggest that normal marine conditions were established across the Mediterranean immediately after the catastrophic flooding. Here we use new proxy data and modelling to show that normal conditions were likely for the western Mediterranean (wMed), but that flooding caused massive wMed salt transfer to the eastern Mediterranean (eMed), which became a hyper-salinity-stratified basin. Hyper-stratification inhibited deep-water ventilation, causing anomalously long-lasting organic-rich (sapropel) sediment deposition. Model:data agreement indicates that hyper-stratification breakdown required 26,000 years. Testing an alternative hypothesis—reconnection of a largely refilled Mediterranean—reveals hyper-stratification in both the wMed and eMed, which would have left sapropels in both basins, in disagreement with observations. Our findings offer novel insight into the processes involved in re-establishing normal marine conditions following abrupt refilling of a previously desiccated ocean basin.

How to cite: Amarathunga, U., Hogg, A., Rohling, E., Roberts, A., Grant, K., Heslop, D., Hu, P., Liebrand, D., Westerhold, T., Zhao, X., and Gilmore, S.: Aftermath of catastrophic flooding of a desiccated ocean basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9593, 2022.

EGU22-9745 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Calcareous nannoplankton community composition across multiple early Eocene hyperthermal events at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1553 (Campbell Plateau, SW Pacific) 

Heather Jones, Bryan Niederbockstruck, and Ursula Röhl and the IODP Expedition 378 Scientists

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are rapidly rising leading to warmer oceans, surface ocean acidification, and complex changes in marine biogeochemical cycling. Calcareous nannoplankton: single-celled marine haptophytes, are likely particularly susceptible to such environmental changes, because they form microscopic plates made out of calcium carbonate (calcite). As these organisms lie at the base of the marine food web, it is critical that we understand how they respond to climate change over longer (millennial) timescales so that we can better predict the long-term effects of current and future environmental change on marine communities.

The high CO2 world of the early Eocene (~56 to 48 Ma) is characterized by multiple transient warming events (‘hyperthermals’), and is generally considered to be one of the best geologic analogues for future climate change. Here, we present preliminary, low-resolution calcareous nannoplankton assemblage data from the early Eocene of recently-drilled IODP Site U1553 (Campbell Plateau) in the South Pacific Ocean. Sediment cores recovered from Holes C and D at Site U1553 provide arguably one of the most complete and expanded early Eocene records yet from this relatively understudied region, including many of the previously recognized hyperthermals. This coupled with the high calcium carbonate content of the sediments, makes it an ideal case study for exploring millennial-scale changes in calcareous nannoplankton community composition and morphometry during transient warming events.

Within this presentation, we predominantly focus on the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM): the largest and best-studied of the early Eocene hyperthermals. Our results suggest that the turnover in nannoplankton species during this warming event was very similar to that observed at other southern high latitude sites such as Maud Rise. More minor ecological ‘jostling’ appears to have occurred prior to the onset of the PETM and following the event; however, the significance of these smaller changes in community composition have yet to be statistically analyzed at the time of writing. It is our aim to combine our assemblage counts with morphometric data to determine whether calcareous nannoplankton acted as a source or sink of carbon dioxide during the early Eocene hyperthermal events. We will also extend our dataset to include several of the smaller hyperthermals that succeeded the PETM, to elucidate whether calcareous nannoplankton exhibit a scaled or threshold response to warming.

How to cite: Jones, H., Niederbockstruck, B., and Röhl, U. and the IODP Expedition 378 Scientists: Calcareous nannoplankton community composition across multiple early Eocene hyperthermal events at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1553 (Campbell Plateau, SW Pacific), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9745, 2022.

EGU22-9934 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Downhole gamma ray data to reconstruct an age-depth model of the terrestrial record at Lake Chalco, Central Mexico 

Mehrdad Sardar Abadi, Christian Zeeden, Arne Ulfers, and Thomas Wonik

Understanding the evolution of lower latitude climate from the most recent glacial periods of the latest Pleistocene to post glacial warmth in the continental tropical regions has been obstructed by a lack of long and continuous time series. Here we examine sediments from Lake Chalco, located in the Valley of Mexico, central Mexico (19°30’N, 99°W). The basin represents a hydrological closed system surrounded by the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt aging from the Oligocene to the present. We use borehole logging to conduct a cyclostratigraphic analysis of the Lake Chalco sediments, and incorporate other available dating information. More than 400 m of sediments are logged for several geophysical properties including magnetic susceptibility and spectral gamma radiation.

Gamma radiation can be used to identify elemental isotopes in the geological record, which is used for stratigraphic correlation and paleoclimatic investigations. Among the lake deposit of Chalco sub-basin, 388 total tephra layers (≥1 mm in thickness) were reported from the core description. Tephra layers with specific gamma ray signatures, presenting a challenge for extracting the primary signals caused by environmental and climatic agents. Here, we apply a tailored protocol to identify tephra layers embedded in other sediments using high-resolution gamma ray spectroscopy. This facilitates dividing the overall sediment column into representative horizons of tephra and non-tephra.

After extracting the non-volcanic primary signal, we apply a suite of evolutive cyclostratigraphic methods to the Lake Chalco logging data, with a focus on gamma ray data. The high-resolution results suggest that the Lake Chalco sediments contain several rhythmic alterations with a quasi-cyclic pattern comparable with the Pleistocene benthic stack. This allow us to calculate a ~500-kyr time span for the sediment deposition in Lake Chalco. By using cyclostratigraphic analysis on data captured by geophysical downhole logging, we demonstrate the potentially broad applicability of this method for downhole logging data and provide further insight into the sedimentation history of Lake Chalco.

 

 

How to cite: Sardar Abadi, M., Zeeden, C., Ulfers, A., and Wonik, T.: Downhole gamma ray data to reconstruct an age-depth model of the terrestrial record at Lake Chalco, Central Mexico, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9934, 2022.

EGU22-10018 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Persistent ISOW formation during MIS 11 

Jasmin M. Link and Norbert Frank

The deep water formation in the Labrador and Nordic Seas is crucial for the global thermohaline circulation nowadays and it remains debated whether changing boundary conditions in terms of global warming may influence the deep convecting activity. Deep convection leads to the formation of Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW), which is an essential part of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, surface conditions in the Nordic Seas were unlikely always favorable for the formation of deep water in the past.

During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, a strong and active AMOC [e.g. 1] was reconstructed, which also contributed to the mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet [2]. However, cold and fresh surface conditions prevailed in the central Nordic Seas [3], which have been ascribed to freshwater input from the higher latitudes [4]. Thus, the question arises, whether and where deep water formation took place in the Nordic Seas.

Here, we reconstruct authigenic neodymium isotopes extracted from deep sea sediment from the Gardar Drift from 470 to 374 ka. IODP Site U1304 is located directly in the modern flow path of ISOW and should therefore sensitively track changes of this water mass in the past. Today, it is characterized by a strongly radiogenic neodymium isotopic composition, which markedly differs from other North Atlantic water masses.

Starting right at the onset and for the full length of the interglacial MIS 11c, a radiogenic Nd isotopic composition is switched on and prevailed indicating the presence of ISOW at the core site. More unradiogenic conditions indicate the return to glacial like conditions during a short event in MIS 11b. However, during MIS 11a the radiogenic values point again to a persistent presence of ISOW.

Thus, although the boundary conditions in terms of freshwater fluxes and sea level were significantly differing in the central Nordic Seas, the deep water formation presumably happened in the southern part of the Nordic Seas. This led to the active formation of ISOW, which in turn helped drive the active and strong AMOC during MIS 11.

 

[1] Dickson et al. (2009), Nat. Geosci. 2: 428-433.

[2] Rachmayani et al. (2017), Paleoceanography 32: 1089-1101.

[3] Kandiano et al. (2016), GRL 43: 10929-10937.

[4] Doherty and Thibodeau (2018), Front. Mar. Sci. 5: 251.

How to cite: Link, J. M. and Frank, N.: Persistent ISOW formation during MIS 11, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10018, 2022.

EGU22-10150 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Phanerozoic scale modulation of brachiopod longitudinal expansion fitness forced by plate tectonics 

Andrej Spiridonov, Lauras Balaukauskas, and Shaun Lovejoy

Brachiopods are a phylum of Animalia which are characterized by a rich fossil record. But this record shows drastic decrease in brachiopod diversity and environmental occupancy through time. One set of explanations says that the decline is related to the state shifts in dominance after mass extinction events (usually P-Tr). Another explanatory set suggests that the dominant cause of brachiopod decline is competition with other functionally similar clades. The competition hypothesis predicts that there should be a monotonic decrease in some fitness metric at organismal or species level. Often overlooked is the influence of long-term tectonic processes which control size, geometry and topology of environments on the changes in dominance of brachiopods. Here we tested this hypothesis by analyzing the dynamics of longitudinal and latitudinal ranges of brachiopod genera in the post-Cambrian Phanerozoic using the Paleobiology Database global paleogeographic occurrence data. The major pattern revealed in the study is that while latitudinal ranges were approximately constant through the eon, the longitudinal ranges experienced long-term trend-like decline. In the beginning of the Phanerozoic and also during the Cretaceous-Cenozoic, average ranges of brachiopod genera were much more elliptic in the west-east direction, while in the middle of the Phanerozoic they become almost circular in their shape. The latitudinal ranges reflect average temperature tolerance of a genus, while the longitudinal ranges reflect capacity of a genus to expand in similar climatic conditions, thus reflecting its potential of expansion fitness. The scale by scale analysis of range shapes and continental fragmentation index found consistent scale independent positive correlation of ellipticity (in W-E direction) with higher fragmentation of continents. Therefore the analyses revealed statistically significant patterns that support the hypothesis of a strong tectonic control on the shapes and sizes of average geographic ranges of brachiopod genera. Smallest ranges with lowest ellipticity occurred in Triassic-Jurassic. Therefore, the loss of genus level expansion fitness due to tectonic amalgamation of Pangaea should have been an important factor which contributed to the failure of brachiopods to fully recover after P-Tr extinction event.

This study was supported by the project S-MIP-21-9 “The role of spatial structuring in major transitions in macroevolution”.

How to cite: Spiridonov, A., Balaukauskas, L., and Lovejoy, S.: Phanerozoic scale modulation of brachiopod longitudinal expansion fitness forced by plate tectonics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10150, 2022.

EGU22-10544 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Continental weathering and climate conditions in southern high latitudes during the Albian-Santonian interval (U1512 and U1513 sites, Exp IODP 369, SW Australia) 

Thomas Munier, Laurent Riquier, François Baudin, Armand Metgalchi, Sidonie Revillon, and Omar Boudouma

The Albian-Santonian interval (113-83 Ma) is considered as a transitional period between the Early Cretaceous times, marked by a succession of short climatic variations associated with volcanism episodes and the Late Cretaceous times, marked by a progressive decrease of temperatures. This 30 Myr-longed interval is characterized by a gradual increase of temperature in oceanic domain, which culminates during the Cretaceous thermal Maximum, at the end of the Turonian (~ 90 Ma). Although the evolutions of continental weathering and climatic conditions are well documented in oceanic domain of low to middle latitudes, especially in Atlantic and Tethyan oceans, their record are less well known in high latitudes, especially in the proto-Indian Ocean. Thanks to the Exp IODP 369, two new boreholes, U1512 and U1513, drilled respectively in the Bight Basin (Southern Australia) and in the Mentelle Basin (Southwestern Australia), provide the opportunity to study the Albian to Santonian deposits at high latitudes (~60°S). Cores of the site U1513 recovered a sedimentary sequence from Albian to Santonian whereas the site U1512 record a continuous sequence from Turonian to Santonian. An integrated study, coupling mineralogical determination (XRD analyse and SEM observation) and isotopic analyses of neodymium on clay fraction was done on both sites in order to determine climatic and weathering conditions in these southern high latitude zone.

Our study reveals that the clay fraction are dominated by smectites (>85% in average) with lower proportions of kaolinites (< 25%) and traces of illites (<5%) associated with opal-CT and clinoptilolites. SEM observations have demonstrated a negligible impact of both burial diagenesis and authigenesis on clay assemblage. They are thus interpreted as the products of the alteration of rocks and pedogenic blankets from adjacent landmasses. At Site U1513, the Albian clay fraction contains noticeable proportions of kaolinites (5 to 25%), which progressively decrease during the Cenomanian and disappear at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary (~94 Ma). Turonian to Coniacian deposits are almost exclusively composed of smectites. The decrease in kaolinite proportions is coeval with a decrease in εNd values, which indicates a probable diminution in the erosion of Australian Archean rocks. At Site U1512, clay mineral assemblages, show slight variations along the borehole, which reflects stable weathering conditions during the 10 Myr of the Turonian-Santonian interval.

The dominance of smectites and to a lesser extent of kaolinites seem to indicate a warm to temperate and humid climate for high latitude zone during the Albian-Santonian interval. The decrease in kaolinite proportions from Albian to early Turonian in U1513 reflect probably a decrease of hydrolysis conditions associated with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise in southwestern Australian margins. The absence of noticeable variations from the Turonian to the Santonian in both sites would be the result of a stable continental climate for several million years after the Cretaceous thermal maximum (~ 90 Ma). The persistent presence of kaolinites in U1512 (southern Australia) could be due to the proximity of the Bight Basin with Australian Western Highlands.

How to cite: Munier, T., Riquier, L., Baudin, F., Metgalchi, A., Revillon, S., and Boudouma, O.: Continental weathering and climate conditions in southern high latitudes during the Albian-Santonian interval (U1512 and U1513 sites, Exp IODP 369, SW Australia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10544, 2022.

EGU22-11382 | Presentations | SSP2.1

The Coniacian-Santonian Oceanic Anoxic Event OAE3 - global correlation of subevents 

Michael Wagreich and Ahmed Mansour

The Coniacian-Santonian was a time of strong differentiation in marine sedimentation, characterized by organic carbon-rich black shales and dark carbonates interpreted as the last oceanic anoxic event, OAE3, versus organic carbon-poor white/reddish limestones, chalk and claystones known as Cretaceous Oceanic Red Beds (CORBs). Based on compiled geochemical and isotope proxy data, two high-resolution global carbon isotope curves for carbonate and organic matter were reconstructed based on statistical analysis. Three main levels of short amplitude (around 0.5‰) carbon isotope excursions were identified. These excursions, each some 0.4 to 0.7 Ma in duration, were characterized by regionally restricted benthic anoxia and sea-level highstands that controlled regional organic matter accumulation during the OAE3 subevents defined herein as OAE3a (late mid-Coniacian, ca. 86.9 Ma, Kingsdown Event), OAE3b (late mid-Santonian, ca. 85.0 Ma, Horseshoe Bay Event), and OAE3c (late Santonian to Santonian-Campanian Boundary Event, ca. 83.5 Ma). Based on a compilation oxygen isotope temperature data and reconstructed pCO2 trends, the Coniacian-Santonian was characterized by: 1) a steady state phase of warm greenhouse climate during the Coniacian, followed by (2) a hot greenhouse during the early Santonian that might be consistent with activation of the Central Kerguelen large igneous province, and (3) a longer-term cooling of the warm greenhouse climate from the mid-Santonian onwards. Organic matter-rich deposition is largely restricted to the low-latitude Atlantic and adjacent epeiric and shelf seas. Areas of enhanced oceanic circulation systems with a westwards directed Tethyan current and regional eddies of water mass flow had a negative feedback resulted in well-developed water column oxygen content within the Tethys.

How to cite: Wagreich, M. and Mansour, A.: The Coniacian-Santonian Oceanic Anoxic Event OAE3 - global correlation of subevents, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11382, 2022.

EGU22-11752 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Size and abundance variations of Schizosphaerella across the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event 

Giulia Faucher, Stefano Visentin, Gabriele Gambacorta, and Elisabetta Erba

The Toarcian oceanic anoxic event (T-OAE), dated as early Toarcian is considered one of the most extreme paleoenvironmental perturbations in Earth’s history. It is characterized by global warming, accelerated weathering, sea level rise, oceanic anoxia and acidification and extensive accumulation of organic matter. In Jurassic times, calcareous nannoplankton was already a most efficient rock-forming group and therefore pelagic sedimentary successions preserve invaluable data to track changes across the T-OAE. In this work, we focus on Schizosphaerella across the T-OAE recovered in the uppermost Pliensbachian–lower Toarcian Sogno Core that consists of a fully pelagic, continuous, well-dated record from a deep plateau (~1500 m water depth) in the Lombardy Basin (northern Italy). The objective of this investigation is the quantification of changes in size and abundance of the micrite-forming schizosphaerellids to derive their biocalcification tempo and mode in response to the T-OAE perturbations, to assess the implications of Schizosphaerella biocalcification changes, in terms of abundance and size, for the pelagic carbonate sedimentation. Absolute abundances and morphometric changes obtained for small Schizosphaerella punctulata” (valve width < 7 μm),  S. punctulata (valve width > 7 μm) and “encrusted S. punctulata” (all specimens characterized by a crust surrounding the valve) revealed large fluctuations in the investigated interval. We identify an abundance fall caused by the failure of S. punctulata and “encrusted S. punctulata” during the core of the T-OAE, that along with the increased abundance of small specimens produced the reduction of average dimensions. Thus, the average size decline is not the result of a general valve reduction, but rather derives from the increase in abundance of small specimens (< 7 μm). This is substantiated by absolute abundances of individual S. punctulata morphogroups that unambiguously demonstrate that such a pattern is not an artefact of relative abundances (closed sum problem).

We hypothesize that the concomitant drop in abundance and shrinkage of valve size is related to hyperthermal conditions associated with excess CO2 and ocean acidification.

Finally, the co-occurrence in the same samples of S. punctulata specimens (> 7 mm) with and without a crust, is indicative of species-specific diagenetic effects. Based on the S. punctulata ultrastructure we conclude that specimens without diagenetic crusts belongs to S. astrea while encrusted specimens are attributable to S. punctulata and we infer that the presence of the diagenetic crust could be taxonomically diagnostic to distinguish S. punctulata from S. astrea.

How to cite: Faucher, G., Visentin, S., Gambacorta, G., and Erba, E.: Size and abundance variations of Schizosphaerella across the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11752, 2022.

EGU22-11783 | Presentations | SSP2.1

A way-out from the maze of middle Miocene Sphaeroidinellopsis (planktonic foraminifera) 

Alessio Fabbrini, Ilaria Zaminiga, Thomas Ezard, and Bridget Wade

The taxonomy and phylogeny of the Miocene to Recent genus Sphaeroidinellopsis have been documented in previous studies, but the evolution of this lineage remains unclear. Some authors debated this genus in the past, choosing a variety of parameters to discriminate between morphospecies. Here we present new high detail analyses of specimens from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 925 (Ceara Rise, western equatorial Atlantic) and ODP Site 959 (Deep Ivorian Basin, eastern equatorial Atlantic). We present transitional individuals Sphaeroidinellopsis disjuncta–Sphaeroidinellopsis kochi, a speciation event never described before. These transitional specimens are characterized by extreme morphological features such as elongated and sac-like final chambers, requiring amendments to the current classification and taxonomy of these morphospecies. An alternative hypothesis is presented to assess these new observations within the evolutionary mosaic of Sphaeroidinellopsis.

How to cite: Fabbrini, A., Zaminiga, I., Ezard, T., and Wade, B.: A way-out from the maze of middle Miocene Sphaeroidinellopsis (planktonic foraminifera), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11783, 2022.

EGU22-11890 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Integrated calcareous plankton biostratigraphy and stable isotopes stratigraphy of Cenomanian-Turonian interval of Breonio and Quero sections (central-western Tethys) 

Michela Simonato, Silvia Gardin, Luca Giusberti, Valeria Luciani, Nereo Preto, Guido Roghi, Simone Barbieri, Federico Xausa, and Eliana Fornaciari

The late Cenomanian-Turonian interval is characterized by major changes in the global carbon cycle, identified by stable carbon isotope excursions with associated climatic variations (e.g., OAE2, Late Turonian Events). These changes are linked to significant paleoceanographic modifications that impacted the biota, especially primary producers (e.g., calcareous plankton), forcing extinctions and evolutionary radiations. A reliable biostratigraphy is an essential tool to correlate both environmental and biotic changes worldwide.

Calcareous nannofossils and planktic foraminifera are well recognized as useful markers for biostratigraphy and paleoecological studies. However, the Cenomanian-Turonian calcareous nannofossil biohorizons are still poorly constrained because the nannofossil assemblages suffer from marked provincialism and taxonomic uncertainty that can blur their biochronological potential.

In order to improve the calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic scheme of the late Cenomanian-Turonian interval, we present new data from the Breonio section (northeastern Italy), in the southwestern part of the Trento Plateau, and from the Quero section (northeastern Italy), located in the western Belluno Basin (central-western Tethys).

The analyses of calcareous nannofossil and planktic foraminiferal assemblages were integrated with the δ13C, δ18O and CaCO3 curves. The δ13C values highlight several positive, global, stable carbon isotope shifts in both sections. The CaCO3 signal of the Quero section suggests that the isotopic signal is pristine because the CaCO3 values are not coupled with δ13C isotope shifts. On the contrary CaCO3 curve seems generally to reflect the lithological signal. On the basis of biostratigraphic data the detected positive shifts have been correlated with the late Cenomanian-Turonian events, specifically, the Oceanic Anoxic Event 2, Holywell, Round down, Pewsey, and Late Turonian Events 1, 2, 3. The stratigraphic position of biohorizons with respect to the globally recognized δ13C excursions can provide a valuable mean to evaluate their potential synchronism/diachronism.

Our preliminary data show a good correspondence with the recent calcareous nannofossil-planktic foraminiferal integrated scheme (Geologic Time scale 2020; Gale et al. 2020) for the late Cenomanian-Turonian interval, although some calcareous nannofossil markers were not recorded. Interestingly, some «standard» and additional calcareous nannofossil events are promising proxies for the Late Turonian Events 1 and 2.

 

References

Gale A.S., Mutterlose J. & Batenburg S. (2020). The Cretaceous Period, in Gradstein F.M. et al., eds., Geologic Time Scale 2020: Boston, Elsevier, pp. 1023-1086.

How to cite: Simonato, M., Gardin, S., Giusberti, L., Luciani, V., Preto, N., Roghi, G., Barbieri, S., Xausa, F., and Fornaciari, E.: Integrated calcareous plankton biostratigraphy and stable isotopes stratigraphy of Cenomanian-Turonian interval of Breonio and Quero sections (central-western Tethys), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11890, 2022.

EGU22-12195 | Presentations | SSP2.1

Extraterrestrial 3He shows that Mesozoic marl-limestone alternations are mainly driven by CaCO3 variations at the astronomical timescale 

Pierre-Henri Blard, Baptiste Suchéras-Marx, Guillaume Suan, and Taous Mezine

Introduction

Marl-limestone alternations are well known rhythmical inter-bedded deposits that commonly occur in many hemipelagic to pelagic deposits of the Phanerozoic. It is quite well established that the origin of these lithological variations are astronomically-driven climatic variations (22, 41, 100 and 405 ka being the main periods) e.g. [1]. However, the exact sedimentological control is not clear: several models attribute these alternations to cyclic changes in the carbonate flux, whereas the terrigenous silicoclastic flux remained relatively constant. On the opposite, some models suggest that the carbonate flux was constant while the silicoclastic flux changed cyclically.

Material and methods

To disentangle these different scenarios, we collected marlstone and limestone samples from two sedimentary successions of Bajocian, Middle Jurassic (3 marl-limestone- couplets over 3.5 m) and Valanginian, Lower Cretaceous (1 marl-limestone couplet over 1 m) age from the Southern French Alps (Barles). We measured their carbonate contents, the nannofossil proportion, as well as their extraterrestrial 3He (3HeET) concentrations in ~200 mg decarbonated aliquots.

Results and discussion

The carbonate content ranges from 45% in marls to 86% in limestones. Importantly, for all samples, measured 3HeET concentrations are constant in the silicoclastic fractions, within uncertainties. Hence, our results indicate that sedimentation rates at the astronomical timescale in the examined examples were mainly controlled by large changes in the CaCO3 net fluxes, leading to variable dilution of the terrigenous and 3HeET fractions. Nannofossil counting shows that pelagic CaCO3 fluxes of coccolithophores are inversely correlated to the total CaCO3 along the marl-limestone alternations and represent less than 4% of the total carbonate content. Hence, in this setting, these marl-limestone alternations were more probably driven by variations in the CaCO3 supply from the nearby carbonate platform. Finally, assuming a constant 3HeET flux of 0.1 pcc/cm2/ka [2], and the whole thickness of Bajocian and Valanginian strata in this region, the measured 3HeET concentrations imply sedimentation rates that are broadly compatible with current duration estimates of these two stages.

 

References:

[1] Eldrett J. S. et al. (2015) Earth. Plan. Sci. Let., 423, 98-113.

[2] Farley K.A. et al. (2012) GCA, 84, 314-328.

How to cite: Blard, P.-H., Suchéras-Marx, B., Suan, G., and Mezine, T.: Extraterrestrial 3He shows that Mesozoic marl-limestone alternations are mainly driven by CaCO3 variations at the astronomical timescale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12195, 2022.

The Cambrian Explosion is a fundamental turning point in the evolution of life that occurred during the Cambrian Period (~541 to ~485 million years ago), which involved the origination and explosive radiation of all major animal phyla. The bursts of evolution characterizing this period appear concurrently with major modifications to the physico-chemical conditions of the world’s oceans, and are recorded in critical fossil localities where soft-tissues are exceptionally well preserved, including Lagerstätten such as the Burgess Shale and Chengjiang Biota. As a result of the severe lack of biostratigraphically-correlatable fossils (due to widespread endemism during the Cambrian) and sparse high-precision radioisotopic dates, the Cambrian time scale remains among the least defined stage of all the Phanerozoic Eon, with a minimum uncertainty of ±2 million years at its stage boundaries. The absence of a high-resolution geological time scale for the Cambrian Explosion hampers our ability to robustly address widely debated questions concerning the origins and rates of the evolutionary and ecological events, their relationship with paleoceanographic conditions, their responses to astronomically-forced climate change, including from Milankovitch “grand” cycles, and whether these events were globally synchronous.

Using an integrated set of geophysical/chemical proxies with advanced time series techniques on selected stratigraphic sections, this project aims at (1) Generate sets of high- resolution geophysical and geochemical stratigraphic proxies enabling to capture Milankovitch forcing within the selected sedimentary records, (2) Building a high-resolution time scale to improve our knowledges on the timing of major Cambrian evolutionary milestones and geochemical changes and (3) Determine the relationships between Cambrian evolutionary and ecological events with the paleoceanographic changes and Milankovitch cycles.

How to cite: Pas, D., Jamart, V., and Daley, A.: Generating a highly resolved astronomical time scale for the evolutionary and ecological events during the Cambrian Explosion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12868, 2022.

CL1.2 – Last ~2.6 Ma

EGU22-402 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Sedimentary facies analysis and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of the Kalkkop palaeolake, Eastern Cape, South Africa 

Loyce Elesia Mpangala, Kelly Kirsten, Torsten Haberzettl, May Murungi, Silindokuhle Mavuso, and Robyn Pickering

Drilling undertaken in the 1990s at the Kalkkop impact crater, situated in the semi-arid, Nama-Karoo biome of South Africa, revealed lacustrine sedimentary deposits. This is an invaluable archive for a region synonymous with a paucity of terrestrial-based, continuous, and high-resolution records. In 2019, a new 90 m core was retrieved from the palaeolake and subjected to a detailed sedimentological log. Sedimentary facies analysis was applied to investigate the changes in past depositional environments, themselves reflecting local changes in hydroclimate. Sedimentological evidence indicated deposition in an overall low-energy environment, intermittently interrupted by brief high energy events. Employment of grey scale image analysis on the top 20 m revealed dry conditions persisted for longer and became more frequent towards the present surface. This was inferred by the darker layers referring to more minerogenic input which is associated with wetter conditions and lighter layers suggesting more pure carbonates and linked to dry conditions. This prolonged aridity impacted the longevity and alkalinity of the Kalkkop lake, resulting in carbonate precipitation, silica dissolution, and complete desiccation. Limited biological remains (diatoms, n=5) support this hypothesis. The body of evidence, namely carbonate precipitation and long persistence of arid spells, as well as the extremely low abundance of silica-based biological remains (pollen, diatoms, phytoliths), supports a transition toward a semi-arid environment by ~250 ka. This remarkable new record of past environmental and climatic changes recorded by the Kalkkop palaeolake core is the subject of ongoing research at the University of Cape Town, South Africa.

How to cite: Mpangala, L. E., Kirsten, K., Haberzettl, T., Murungi, M., Mavuso, S., and Pickering, R.: Sedimentary facies analysis and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of the Kalkkop palaeolake, Eastern Cape, South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-402, 2022.

EGU22-606 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Modeling Holocene paleoclimate of Konya basin and comparison with proxy data 

Neriman Erdem and Bülent Arıkan

 

Konya closed basin, located on the Anatolian plateau, hosted plenty of cultures and civilizations throughout the Holocene. The abundance of archaeological settlements and the current ecological fragility of the basin have increased the scholarly focus on the region. The basin offers a long-term and multi-dimensional record of human-environment interactions that reflect social, environmental, political, and economic processes. Paleolimnology studies are significant to reconstruct the paleoclimate and the paleoenvironment of the region. Sediment cores obtained from the basin, which is known to be paleo lake formerly and its surrounding lakes, provide multiple proxy records. Although plenty of paleoenvironmental studies were conducted in the region, reaching a temporally and regionally homogenous and long-term dataset is not straightforward. First, this research aims to build a paleoenvironmental synthesis of the Konya Basin. Secondly, it aims to reveal the climatic changes in the region throughout the Holocene quantitatively. In this study, Macrophysical Climate Model (MCM) was run with thirty years of observation data from a total of 20 meteorological stations located in and around the study area. The model outputs were compared with the local proxy records (oxygen isotopes and pollen records) obtained from the lacustrine environments of the region. MCM is a heat-budget modeling method to precisely recognize the mean centers of high and low sea-level pressure systems that manage the weather and wind patterns at mid-latitudes. The MCM model allows us to predict meteorological parameters at the interval of 100 years from the present to 40,000 years ago. Preliminary findings from the MCM point to the wetter and warmer periods in the Early Holocene, similar to isotope proxies in the region. Towards the end of the Early Holocene, precipitation decreases, and the driest climatic conditions occur in the Middle Holocene. The model outputs confirm the cessation of the active alluvion process in the Middle Holocene, which was experienced due to the reduction in the seasonality of precipitation. It was seen that increasing trend in winter temperatures during the Holocene for analyzed stations. On the advancing parts of the research, the findings from this study will be used in an agent-based modeling platform to understand the complex human-environment interaction in the region.

How to cite: Erdem, N. and Arıkan, B.: Modeling Holocene paleoclimate of Konya basin and comparison with proxy data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-606, 2022.

EGU22-667 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

The Great Lakes of Turkana – a Novel Perspective on the African Humid Period 

Markus Lothar Fischer and Annett Junginger

The Lake Turkana region in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia is famous for its fossil richness including key sites for human evolution studies. Modern Lake Turkana is the last of numerous mega-paleo-lakes, that has persisted to dry up completely at the end of the last African Humid Period (AHP, 15 – 5 ka). The adjacent paleo-lakes Suguta (2,000 km²) and Chew Bahir (2,500 km²), which are desiccated today, have formed together with paleo-lake Turkana (20,000 km²) a N-S oriented mega-lake during the AHP that has being separated only by small morphological Barriers. While Turkana, Suguta and Chew Bahir have been part of intensive research during the past decades, paleo-lake Chalbi with 10,000 km² in size just 10 km east of Lake Turkana was out of sight for most archaeologists and geoscientist. Here we present the first attempts for enhancing our understanding of the paleoenvironmental consequences of paleo-lake Chalbi close to one of the key regions in human evolution.

How to cite: Fischer, M. L. and Junginger, A.: The Great Lakes of Turkana – a Novel Perspective on the African Humid Period, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-667, 2022.

EGU22-1100 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Paleoenvironmental reconstruction in East Africa at a critical period of hominin dispersion out-of-Africa (150-80 kyr) 

Cecile A. Porchier, Mark A. Maslin, Tom Hill, David M. Williams, Eileen Cox, Anson W. Mackay, George E.A. Swann, and Melanie J. Leng

Climate may have played a critical role in early hominin evolution and dispersion, with rapid changes from humid to hyper-arid observed in East African palaeoclimate records. Many studies show linkages between these climate changes and hominin speciation and dispersion; however, few of them have focused on annual to decadal climate variability. This new study presents paleoenvironmental records (diatom assemblages and oxygen isotopes in diatom biogenic silica, d18Odiatom) from the Ol Njorowa Gorge in Kenya. The study site is located west of the African Rift Valley, from where important hominin dispersals are believed to have taken place. The study site preserves a stratigraphic record of interbedded diatomite beds spanning a key period of theorised hominin dispersals; 150,000 to 80,000 years ago. In this study, diatom assemblages and d18Odiatomrecords are used to understand past changes in moisture and precipitation patterns over East Africa as well as changes in lake water chemistry. d18Odiatom has been used in both lacustrine and oceanic settings since the early 2000s. It is however an under-utilised proxy that holds great potential, especially for diatomites from exposed lake beds where carbonate material is scarce or inexistant. The study also uses high resolution scanning XRF data from diatomite blocks to develop an age model for the diatomite beds at an annual timescale.

How to cite: Porchier, C. A., Maslin, M. A., Hill, T., Williams, D. M., Cox, E., Mackay, A. W., Swann, G. E. A., and Leng, M. J.: Paleoenvironmental reconstruction in East Africa at a critical period of hominin dispersion out-of-Africa (150-80 kyr), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1100, 2022.

EGU22-2707 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Simulating climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions 

Axel Timmermann, Kyungsook Yun, Pasquale Raia, Christoph Zollikofer, Marcia Ponce de Leon, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Elke Zeller, Jiaoyang Ruan, and Elke Zeller

It has previously been suggested that climate shifts during the last 2 million years played an important role in the evolution of our genus Homo. However, quantifying this linkage has remained challenging. Here we use an unprecedented transient Pleistocene Coupled General Circulation model simulation in combination with an extensive compilation of fossil and archaeological records, to study the spatio-temporal habitat suitability of five hominin species over the past 2 million years. We show that astronomically-forced changes in temperature, rainfall and terrestrial net primary production had a major impact on their observed distributions. During the early Pleistocene hominins primarily settled in environments with weak orbital-scale climate variability. This behaviour changed drastically after the mid-Pleistocene-transition when archaic humans became global wanderers who adapted to a wide range of spatial climatic gradients, which increased  the likelihood for habitat overlap and cladogenic transitions. Our robust numerical simulations of climate-induced habitat changes provide a novel framework to test hypotheses on our human origin.

How to cite: Timmermann, A., Yun, K., Raia, P., Zollikofer, C., Ponce de Leon, M., Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Zeller, E., Ruan, J., and Zeller, E.: Simulating climate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2707, 2022.

EGU22-2788 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Postglacial fire regime changes and vegetation dynamics at Lake Victoria, Africa 

Yunuén Temoltzin-Loranca, Erika Gobet, Boris Vannière, Jacqueline F.N. van Leeuwen, Colin Courtney-Mustaphi, Giulia Wienhues, Sönke Szidat, Martin Grosjean, and Willy Tinner

Lake Victoria is the largest tropical lake on the planet. Located in East Africa at an altitude of 1135 m asl, it lies across the limits between two major climatic zones with a temperature and moisture gradient and associated tropical biomes, the rain forest, and the savanna. At higher altitudes > 1200–2500 m a.s.l. temperatures are significantly lower and vegetation forms an Afromontane belt. Primarily triggered by climate shifts, these three biomes and fire regimes have been dynamically interspersing over the last 17,000 years.

Here, we present a robust 14C chronology mainly based on macroscopic charcoal using the MICADAS system of LARA at the University of Bern, new palynological data used as biostratigraphic control, and the first continuous charcoal record in Lake Victoria to establish the fire history.

Our pollen and macro–charcoal records, support the assumption that throughout time regional fire dynamics are controlled by biome’s changes, and that climate was the main driver of these vegetation shifts at least until the Iron Age. Our results indicate that during the Last Glacial Maxima and Heinrich Stadial 1, under dry and colder climates the savanna was dominating, with low fire regimes before 15,000 cal yr BP and increased fire occurrence between 15,000 and 14,000 cal yr BP. After this period, the Afromontane forest started to expand, and warmer and humid climates promoted the growth of rain forests and reduced fire events, which is particularly observed in the African Humid Period (between ca. 11,500 and 5000 cal yr BP). Subsequently, our records indicate a global maximum of fire occurrence at 5000 cal yr BP, followed by unexpectedly low fire regimes during the Iron Age and the subsequent periods.

This work is part of a SINERGIA project funded by the Swiss National Foundation which seeks to unravel the long-term causes and consequences of Lake Victoria’s ecosystem dynamics with a special focus on the evolution of fish species and other biotas from the late Pleistocene to the present.

How to cite: Temoltzin-Loranca, Y., Gobet, E., Vannière, B., van Leeuwen, J. F. N., Courtney-Mustaphi, C., Wienhues, G., Szidat, S., Grosjean, M., and Tinner, W.: Postglacial fire regime changes and vegetation dynamics at Lake Victoria, Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2788, 2022.

EGU22-6559 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Integrative multivariate study of past African climate variability 

Norbert Marwan, Jonathan F. Donges, Reik V. Donner, and Deniz Eroglu

Based on a set of various marine palaeoclimate proxy records, we investigate African climate variations during the past 5 million years. We use a collection of modern approaches from non-linear time series analysis to identify and characterise dynamical regime shifts as changes in signal predictability, regularity, complexity, and higher-order stochastic properties such as multi-stability. We observe notable nonlinear transitions and important climate events in the African palaeoclimate, which can be attributed to phases of intensified Walker circulation, marine isotope stage M2, the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation, and the mid-Pleistocene transition, and relate them to variations of the Earth's orbital parameters.

How to cite: Marwan, N., Donges, J. F., Donner, R. V., and Eroglu, D.: Integrative multivariate study of past African climate variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6559, 2022.

EGU22-6682 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Simulating Pleistocene climate effect on archaic human interbreeding 

Jiaoyang Ruan, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Elke Zeller, and Danielle Lemmon

Genomic data document multiple episodes of interbreeding among Neanderthals, Denisovans and Homo sapiens. When, where and how often the interbreeding between these hominin populations took place remains unclear. Here, we study the Neanderthal-Denisovan admixture during the past 400 thousand years using a novel habitat model that integrates extensive fossil, archeological, and genetic data with unprecedented transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations of global climate and vegetation. Our Pleistocene hindcast of habitat suitability reveals pronounced climate-driven zonal shifts in the main overlap region of Denisovans and Neanderthals in central Eurasia. These shifts, which influenced timing and intensity of potential interbreeding events, can be attributed to the response of climate and vegetation to past variations in atmospheric CO2 and northern hemisphere ice-sheet volume. Therefore glacial/interglacial climate swings likely played an important role in archaic human gene flow and genetic diversification.

How to cite: Ruan, J., Timmermann, A., Yun, K.-S., Zeller, E., and Lemmon, D.: Simulating Pleistocene climate effect on archaic human interbreeding, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6682, 2022.

EGU22-6824 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Early hominins were variability avoiders and diversity seekers 

Elke Zeller, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Soon Yun, and Pasqual Raia

Climate influenced the evolution of hominins, though the mechanisms and scales are still not well understood. We know that long-term climatic variations, such as wet-dry climate cycles and sea-level change, can change landscapes dramatically. Changes in landscapes can drive early hominins to find different locations to settle, but what kind of environments did they prefer and what role did changing climates play in all this? To research this question, we modeled the climate of the past 3 million years using CESM, made a best estimate of the global biome landscape, and compared the results to an extensive archeological database of hominin findings.

This analysis shows us that early hominins living in Africa predominantly lived in open habitats. When hominins expanded northwards, they adapted to more forested landscapes. While they were able to adapt, most hominin locations were found in areas with less variability and higher local biome diversity, suggesting that hominins prefer stable environmental conditions with a variety of resources nearby. This preference for stability and a landscape that offers diverse biomes is seen for all hominins regardless of species.

How to cite: Zeller, E., Timmermann, A., Yun, K.-S., and Raia, P.: Early hominins were variability avoiders and diversity seekers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6824, 2022.

EGU22-7105 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

New sedimentological evidence of Lake Victoria’s palaeohydrological variability during the last deglacial transition (16-10 kyr BP) 

Giulia Wienhues, Yunuén Temoltzin-Loranca, Hendrik Vogel, and Martin Grosjean

The East African (hydro-)climate response to perturbations during the deglacial transition (e.g. Older and Younger Dryas) is complex and expressed heterogeneously in different paleoclimatic records. Lake Victoria (LV), Africa’s largest lake, desiccated entirely during the dry last glacial (>16.3 kyr BP) and subsequently refilled as climate conditions got more humid, reaching a highstand during the Early Holocene. However, existing sediment records from LV do not have sufficient resolution to fully resolve short-term hydroclimate changes during the deglacial transition (especially between 14 and 11 kyr BP). There is little direct evidence of late-glacial lake level fluctuations in LV so far because intermediate water depth coring sites suitable to record intermittent lowstands are missing.

By analysing sediment cores along a near-shore/shallow water (current water depth 22 m) to offshore/deep water (current water depth 63 m) coring transect covering the past 16,000 years, we aim at a more accurate spatial and temporal reconstruction of LV’s deglacial lake level history in response to regional hydroclimate changes.

Core stratigraphy and geochemical evidence, combined with a robust radiocarbon chronology, demonstrate a stepwise infilling of the Lake Victoria basin after its last complete desiccation (< 16.3 kyr BP). Following the dry late glacial Heinrich 1 event, an intermediate water level prevailed between 16.3 and 14.4 kyr BP, with uninterrupted deposition of fine-grained, organic matter-rich pelagic muds at our deep-water site and coarser, sandy-clay deposits at the near shore site. A second dry episode during the Older Dryas (~14 kyr BP) is marked by an abrupt decline in lake level with deposition of coarse mollusc shell bearing sediments at the near shore site indicating a littoral depositional environment. This shift in hydroclimate in the Lake Victoria basin is congruent with a brief period of cooling and drying during the Bölling/Alleröd (Dansgard Oeschger Event 1), which is also recorded in other East African Lakes. Subsequently, Lake Victoria reached maximum water levels with the onset of the African Humid Period in the early Holocene at around 11 kyr BP, which is expressed by elevated input of chemically weathered material (e.g. Rb/K) and deposition of fine-grained muds at both the near shore and offshore sites.

How to cite: Wienhues, G., Temoltzin-Loranca, Y., Vogel, H., and Grosjean, M.: New sedimentological evidence of Lake Victoria’s palaeohydrological variability during the last deglacial transition (16-10 kyr BP), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7105, 2022.

EGU22-7177 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Early Pleistocene route to Sangiran opened to Javanese Homo erectus 

Laurent Husson, Anne-Elisabeth Lebatard, Swann Zerathe, Régis Braucher, Sofwan Noerwidi, Sonny Aribowo, Julien Carcaillet, Danny Hilman Natawidjaja, Didier L. Bourlès, and Aster Team

The chronology of the arrival of Homo erectus on the island of Java is a cornerstone of paleoanthropology. Understanding the dispersal routes of Homo erectus, but also of other hominin lineages in Asia and across Southeast Asia, depends on this timing. Their dispersal across Sundaland, in particular, is challenged by an extremely transient climatic and geological environment during Early Pleistocene. Furthermore, ages of first appearance of Javanese H. erectus remain controversial. New age constraints based on cosmogenic nuclides 10Be and 26Al produced in situ indicate that H. erectus reached Java and dwelled at Sangiran at least ~1.4 Ma ago and more probably around 1.8 Ma. During this period, Java was just emerging from the sea while the adjacent Sundaland was a vast and continuous expanse of climatically and environmentally hospitable land connecting Java to mainland Asia, which facilitated the prior dispersal of hominins and terrestrial faunas to the edge of Java. This ancient age makes H. erectus the contemporary of the earliest members of the genus Homo in Africa and Asia, and rejuvenates the question of dispersal and evolutionary pathways across Eurasia and Sundaland.

How to cite: Husson, L., Lebatard, A.-E., Zerathe, S., Braucher, R., Noerwidi, S., Aribowo, S., Carcaillet, J., Natawidjaja, D. H., Bourlès, D. L., and Team, A.: Early Pleistocene route to Sangiran opened to Javanese Homo erectus, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7177, 2022.

EGU22-7421 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Developing a chronological and environmental framework of Early Pleistocene hominin expansions in the Caucasus region: Current research in northern Armenia 

Jenni E Sherriff, Daniel S Adler, Dmitri Arakelyan, Boris Gasparyan, Tobias Lauer, Katie J Preece, Mark J Sier, and Keith N Wilkinson

Understanding the chronology and environmental context of the earliest hominin expansions into Eurasia is of considerable interest in palaeoanthropology, however, our current knowledge is based on a handful of sites.  Dated to 1.85–1.78 Ma, Dmanisi (southern Georgia) is not only the locus of the earliest Homo fossils in Eurasia but has also yielded stone tools and rich assemblages of vertebrate fossils (1,2).  Whilst Dmanisi fundamentally changed our views on the timing of hominin expansions out of Africa and the technological capabilities of these populations, it has long represented a single site in the region, and little is known about the broader environmental context.

The Debed Valley (located in the Lori Depression, northern Armenia) represents a key area in which to improve our understanding of this early hominin expansion. The area lies at the southeast margins of the Javakheti Plateau, a large volcanic province spanning both southern Georgia and northern Armenia. Current chronological study of the Javakheti-derived lavas places the interval of volcanic activity between 2.1 and 1.6 Ma (3,4). The lavas are exposed along the Debed valley and trap sediment sequences below, within, and atop the flows. 

Here, we present the first results of our ongoing paleoenvironmental and geoarchaeological investigations in the Debed valley. We first present a model of landscape evolution during the Early Pleistocene based on detailed geologic and geomorphic mapping in the valley. We then describe preliminary results from two of the key sequences in the valley: 1) the open-air archaeological site of Haghtanak-3, from which a Mode 1 lithic assemblage has been recovered, and 2) the fluvio-lacustrine sequence of Dzoragyugh-1 paleolake.  We discuss the stratigraphic, sedimentological, and chronological (40Ar/39Ar and palaeomagnetism) results from each site and provide linkages between these sites, the geomorphic evolution of the Debed valley, and Dmanisi sequence. Through this, we highlight the environmental and archaeological significance of sedimentary archives in northern Armenia for understanding the nature and environmental context of early hominin expansions into Eurasia.  

1) Ferring, R., Oms, O., Agustí, J., Berna, F., Nioradze, M., Shelia, T., Tappen, M., Vekua, A., Zhvania, D. and Lordkipanidze, D., 2011. Earliest human occupations at Dmanisi (Georgian Caucasus) dated to 1.85–1.78 Ma. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108, 10432-10436.

2) Mgeladze, A., Lordkipanidze, D., Moncel, M.-H., Despriee, J., Chagelishvili, R., Nioradze, M., Nioradze, G., (2011). Hominin occupations at the Dmanisi site, Georgia, Southern Caucasus: raw materials and technical behaviours of Europe's first hominins. Journal of Human Evolution 60, 571–596.

3) Lebedev, V.A., Bubnov, S.N., Chernyshev, I.V., Chugaev, A.V., Dudauri, O.Z. and Vashakidze, G.T. (2007). Geochronology and genesis of subalkaline basaltic lava rivers at the Dzhavakheti Highland, Lesser Caucasus: K/Ar and Sr-Nd isotopic data. Geochemistry International 45, 211–225.

4) Trifonov, V.G., Lyubin, V.P., Belyaeva, E.V., Lebedev, V.A., Trikhunkov, Ya.I., Tesakov, A.S., Simakova, A.N., Veselovsky, R.V., Latyshev, A.V., Presnyakov, S.L., Isanova, T.P., Ozhereliev, D.V., Bachmanov, D.M. and Lyapunov, S.M. (2016). Stratigraphic and tectonic settings of Early Paleolithic of North-West Armenia. Quaternary International 420, 178– 198.

How to cite: Sherriff, J. E., Adler, D. S., Arakelyan, D., Gasparyan, B., Lauer, T., Preece, K. J., Sier, M. J., and Wilkinson, K. N.: Developing a chronological and environmental framework of Early Pleistocene hominin expansions in the Caucasus region: Current research in northern Armenia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7421, 2022.

EGU22-9664 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Homo heterogenus: Variability in Pleistocene Homo environments. 

Tegan Foister, Miikka Tallavaara, Mikael Fortelius, and Oscar E. Wilson

The Early Pleistocene dispersal of Homo out of Africa  is a highly studied and debated topic.  One of the controversies centres on the question of what type of environments hominin species expanded out of Africa into. We conducted a literature review of 163 papers published since 2000 studying the environmental settings of the first Out of Africa expansion. We found that the literature is polarised between two types of hypotheses. On one hand there are papers which describe Homo in the Early Pleistocene as inflexible (compared to Homo sapiens) and incapable of persisting in non-savannah environments, e.g. the ‘savannahstan’ hypothesis. On the other hand there are papers which describe Homo as flexible and able to persist in various environment types, e.g. the variability selection hypothesis. By investigating these hypotheses we are able to move closer to answering the question - as Homo dispersed out of Africa, did they diversify to exploit new environments, or remain within the ranges of their African niche? We analysed the reconstructions of early Homo environments included in these papers. We found that the qualitative language used to describe hominin environments is problematic and impedes the formation of clear conclusions about the environments occupied by early Homo species. However, by forcibly quantifying the descriptions used in 69 (of the original 163) papers we found that the research does not strongly support the savannahstan hypothesis. Instead the environments inhabited by Homo are consistently reconstructed as a mix of environment types (grassland, forest, savannah etc.), with a slight skew towards open habitats. Based on these results, we tentatively suggest that Homo exhibited a preference for heterogeneous “edge” environments during the Pleistocene and as they dispersed out of Africa. However,  in order to further investigate the potential preference of Homo for heterogeneous environments and to build confidence in reconstructions of early human environments in general, quantified reconstructions of the vegetation composition and distribution at early Homo sites are needed. 

How to cite: Foister, T., Tallavaara, M., Fortelius, M., and Wilson, O. E.: Homo heterogenus: Variability in Pleistocene Homo environments., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9664, 2022.

EGU22-10011 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Is there an orbital control on the pacing of anoxia across the Aptian-Albian boundary (~113 Ma)? 

Mathieu Martinez, Fatima-Zahra Ait-Itto, Danny Boué, Jean-Francois Deconinck, and Stéphane Bodin

The stratigraphic interval spanning the Aptian-Albian transition is marked by a cluster of short-lived marine anoxic episodes referred to as Oceanic Anoxic Event 1b (OAE 1b). These short-lived episodes are, from the oldest to the youngest, the Jacob, Kilian, Paquier and Leenhardt events. We here aim at testing the impact of the long Milankovitch cycles (1.2-Myr and 2.4-Myr) on the recurrence of these oxygen-deficiency episodes by establishing a precise astrochronology of the OAE 1b interval from the Col de Pré-Guittard section (Albian GSSP, Vocontian Basin, SE France). The section belongs to the “Marnes Bleues Formation”, which is a thick (several hundred metres) clayey formation, interrupted by thin limestone beds and black shale layers, slumps and turbidites, all deposited in the hemipelagic part of the Vocontian Basin. Organic-matter carbon isotope ratios and Total Organic Carbon have been measured to precisely locate these events within the Col de Pré-Guittard section. A magnetic susceptibility signal was obtained from 3500 bulk rock samples collected every 5 cm. The sampling was performed on two parts of the Col de Pré-Guittard section to avoid a multi-decametric slump outcropping in one of the two section below the Kilian Level. However, two thin turbidite layers, near the Jacob and the Paquier events, remained unavoidable. Spectral analyses were performed using the Multi-Taper Method and the evolutive Fourier Transforms. These spectral analyses show the pervasive control of the 100-kyr eccentricity cycle and demonstrates a duration of (i) 1.6 Myr from the Jacob to the Kilian events, (ii) 1.5 Myr from the Kilian to the Paquier events, and (iii) 1.0 Myr from the Paquier to the Leenhardt events. Duration do not correspond to long Milankovitch cycles and thus do not favour the sole orbital control on the pacing of the anoxic events of the Aptian-Albian transition. Thus, other global forcing factors, as the volcanism, or local factors, as basin-scale paleoceanographic and climatic changes, have to be considered to explain this recurrence of anoxic conditions in the Vocontian Basin.

How to cite: Martinez, M., Ait-Itto, F.-Z., Boué, D., Deconinck, J.-F., and Bodin, S.: Is there an orbital control on the pacing of anoxia across the Aptian-Albian boundary (~113 Ma)?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10011, 2022.

EGU22-10334 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

The paleoenvironmental history of the wetland Gelba in the Gamo Highlands of Ethiopia: a Holocene vegetation reconstruction with sedimentary ancient DNA 

Femke Augustijns, Charline Giguet-Covex, Alemayehu Kasaye Tilahun, Nils Broothaerts, and Gert Verstraeten

Multiproxy paleoenvironmental research in Ethiopia is limited to a handful of studies, mostly situated in central and northern Ethiopia. This results in lasting uncertainties about the nature and timing of the vegetation response to climatic changes such as the African Humid Period and the Holocene aridification, and the imprint of human activities on the vegetation.

Here we present the sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) and XRF results as part of a multiproxy study in the Gamo Highlands in the southern Ethiopian rift valley. A six meter long sediment core spanning the last 18 thousand years was retrieved from a wetland at Gelba at 2300 m asl in the Gamo Highlands. Previous pollen and charcoal analyses on the core showed a past vegetation dominated by Afromontane forest taxa over the entire record. A first shift in the pollen-based reconstructed vegetation was a decrease of afroalpine vegetation around 13 cal. ka BP, with a relative increase of Afromontane forest taxa. Around 7 cal. ka BP wooded grassland taxa increased. At ca. 2.5 cal. ka BP a sudden change in the vegetation was detected, with increased disturbance indicators and charcoal particles.

Samples spanning the entire core we analyzed for their plant DNA content targeting the extracellular DNA. For the last 2.5 cal. ka BP, both extracellular and total DNA extraction was applied to the investigated samples. The results showed similar results for both approaches, whilst them also being complimentary by each detecting additional taxa. The majority of DNA sequences was derived from herbs and wetland plants, indicating a relatively local vegetation signal. A first observable change in the DNA record occurs at 7 cal. ka BP (with e.g. decreasing Convolvulaceae), but the strongest shift is observed in the period 2.5-2 cal. ka BP, with in particular an increase of Lythraceae and Polygonoideae. The DNA analysis has some taxa in common with the pollen analysis, but both proxies complement each other strongly due to the dominant local versus regional signal they provide. Despite the difference in detected plant taxa, the timing of vegetation transitions matches well between both records.

The XRF results show a highly minerogenic sediment input in the late glacial period. From ca. 13 cal. ka BP, a strong decrease in minerogenic input is observed and the sediment becomes more organic. At ca. 7.5 cal. ka BP, the minerogenic input increases again until 3 cal. ka BP, followed by fluctuating levels of minerogenic elements and increasing phosphorus levels in the last 2000 years.

How to cite: Augustijns, F., Giguet-Covex, C., Tilahun, A. K., Broothaerts, N., and Verstraeten, G.: The paleoenvironmental history of the wetland Gelba in the Gamo Highlands of Ethiopia: a Holocene vegetation reconstruction with sedimentary ancient DNA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10334, 2022.

EGU22-11141 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Stochastic Resonance between Climate Variability and Hominin Migration in an Agent-Based Model 

Danielle Lemmon, Axel Timmermann, Elke Zeller, Jiaoyang Ruan, Kyungsook Yun, and Pasquale Raia

There are many interdisciplinary theories as to how climate variability impacted hominin migration, and subsequently human evolution. One such hypothesis concerns so-called “green corridors,” in which climate and biome variability periodically opened vegetated corridors between habitable areas. The periodic opening of these corridors may have acted as a pump through uninhabitable barrier regions, allowing for more wide-spread dispersal. We present results from a climate-forced agent-based model that furthers the green corridor hypothesis to include the effect of stochastic resonance in penetrating barrier regions. In other words, while it intuitively makes sense that hominins would explore and disperse as green corridors opened up, the potential for green corridors to act as a dispersal pump likely depended on having the right amount of stochasticity (randomness) in hominin movement to resonate with orbitally-paced climate signals, effectively penetrating these corridors and dispersing into other regions. We integrate data from a 2-million-year CESM model, from the BIOME4 vegetation model, and from archaeological archives to create a map of habitat suitability based on a species-specific climate envelope. This habitat suitability forces the agent-based hominin migration model, in which agents seek more habitable areas and the added randomness in that agent movement is varied. While our conclusions are largely independent of species, we show results from a Homo erectus migration simulation. In my presentation I will discuss how stochastic hominin movement, the opening up of green corridors, and climate variability affected hominin dispersal throughout the Plio-Pleistocene.

How to cite: Lemmon, D., Timmermann, A., Zeller, E., Ruan, J., Yun, K., and Raia, P.: Stochastic Resonance between Climate Variability and Hominin Migration in an Agent-Based Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11141, 2022.

EGU22-12497 | Presentations | CL1.2.1

Integrated approaches to locating Pleistocene archaeological and proxy sites in drylands 

Paul Breeze, Nick Drake, Katie Manning, and Michael Petraglia

Surveying at the landscape scale to find archaeological sites is a particular challenge in the dryland environments of Arabia, the Sahara and other similar hyper-arid regions. Here we present how novel high-resolution palaeoydrological mapping of the entirety of the Saharo-Arabian desert belt has not only revealed large numbers of palaeolakes, shorelines and past drainage courses, but also proved particularly fruitful for finding new palaeolithic sites, and lacustrine pleistocene proxy records in Arabia. We describe the integrated survey methodologies which have helped us to locate large numbers of new sites in Arabia, including the earliest fossil and footprints of our species in Arabia, thus helping to enhance our understanding of pleistocene climatic change in these deserts, and of Hominin dispersals into and through them.

How to cite: Breeze, P., Drake, N., Manning, K., and Petraglia, M.: Integrated approaches to locating Pleistocene archaeological and proxy sites in drylands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12497, 2022.

EGU22-174 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

A Band Model of Cambium Development as a new tool of xylogenesis development 

Vladimir Shishov, Ivan Tychkov, and Grigory Zelenov

More than 60% of tree phytomass is concentrated in stem wood, which is the result of periodic activity of the cambium. Despite this importance, there are still few attempts to quantitatively describe cambium dynamics.

In this study, we present a state-of-the-art Band Model of Cambium Development, based on the hypothesis of the kinetic heterogeneity of the cambial zone and the connectivity of the cell structure as the forming water-conducting tissue of the coniferous tree.

The new model significantly simplifies the assessment of seasonal cell production for individual trees of studied forest stand based on the same climate signal. It allows the entire range of individual absolute variability in the forming rings of any tree in the stand to be quantified.

Due to the simplicity new approach can be applied for the most of conifer forests where the climate plays a role of limiting growth factor.

How to cite: Shishov, V., Tychkov, I., and Zelenov, G.: A Band Model of Cambium Development as a new tool of xylogenesis development, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-174, 2022.

EGU22-673 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

The unknown third - exploring the climatic and non-climatic signals of hydrogen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose across Europe 

Valentina Vitali, Elisabet Martínez-Sancho, Kerstin Treydte, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Isabel Dorado-Liñán, Emilia Gutiérrez, Gerhard Helle, Markus Leuenberger, Neil J. Loader, T. Katja Rinne-Garmston, Gerhard Schleser, Scott Allen, John Waterhouse, Matthias Saurer, and Marco Lehmann

Stable carbon (δ13Cc) and oxygen (δ18Oc)isotopes measured in tree-ring cellulose, together with tree-ring width (TRW), have been used extensively to investigate the effects of past climatic conditions on tree growth. By contrast, the information recorded by the third major chemical component of tree-ring cellulose, the non-exchangeable carbon-bound hydrogen, has been explored far less due to methodological drawbacks and lack of understanding of 2H-specific fractionations. In this first Europe-wide assessment we investigate the signals stored in the hydrogen isotope ratios in tree-ring cellulose (δ2Hc), from a unique collection of 100-years records, from two major genera (Pinus and Quercus) across 17 sites (36°N to 68°N).

The climate correlation analyses showed weak climate signals in the δ2Hc high-frequency chronologies, compared to those recorded by δ13Cc and δ18Oc, but similar to the TRW ones. The δ2Hc climate signal strength varied across the continent and was stronger and more consistent for Pinus than for Quercus. The δ2Hc inter-annual variability was strongly site-specific. Focusing on the effect of extreme climatic conditions during years with extremely dry summers, we observed a significant 2H-enrichment in tree-ring cellulose for both genera. Our findings clearly indicate that δ2Hc registers information about hydrology and climate, but it also records non-climatic signals such as physiological mechanisms associated with carbohydrates storage remobilization 2H-specific fractionations and growth.

To disentangle the climatic and non-climatic signals in δ2Hc, we investigated its relationships with δ18Oc and TRW. We found significant relationships negative between δ2Hc and TRW at 7 sites and positive between δ2Hc and δ18Oc at 10 sites, while the rest of the sites did not show any significant relationships. The agreement with the TRW chronologies confirms the relationship between growth and δ2Hc, while the divergencefrom δ18O suggests a loss of the hydrological signal in δ2Hc. These highlights, once again,a stronger physiological component in the δ2H signature independent from climate. Advancements in the understanding of 2H-fractionations and their relationships with climate, physiology, and species-specific traits are therefore needed to improve the mechanistic modeling and interpretation accuracy of δ2Hc in plant physiology and paleoclimatology. Such advancements could lead to new insights into trees’ carbon allocation mechanisms, and responses to abiotic and biotic stressors.

How to cite: Vitali, V., Martínez-Sancho, E., Treydte, K., Andreu-Hayles, L., Dorado-Liñán, I., Gutiérrez, E., Helle, G., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N. J., Rinne-Garmston, T. K., Schleser, G., Allen, S., Waterhouse, J., Saurer, M., and Lehmann, M.: The unknown third - exploring the climatic and non-climatic signals of hydrogen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-673, 2022.

Trees are one of the best sources of high-resolution proxy data to understand the past climate. By analyzing Tree Ring Width (TRW) data with climate variables and indicators, we can find main clues, which can help us to encode paleoclimate signals. Nowadays, scientists try to model TRW data with various climate data versus reconstructing the mentioned data for an extended period through different statistical methods. One of the newest methods is AI (Artificial Intelligence). This study aimed to model TRW data with the most effective climate variables by comparing the statistical methods vs. the AI method. First, seven climate variables were gathered from the nearest synoptic station (Sokcho) to the TRW site (Whachae Peak-Sorak), in northeast South Korea, during 1901–1998. The climate variables include maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tm), diurnal temperature range (DTR = Tmax – Tmin) (°C), precipitation (Pr) (mm), and vapor pressure (VP) (hPa). The in-situ data were applied to correct the Climate Reach Unit (CRU, Version 4.03). Moreover, we have checked two meteorological drought indices, namely the Palmer drought index (PDSI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). We applied two regression methods (namely multiple linear regression (MLR) and stepwise regression (SR)) and one AI (Nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX)) method. In the first step of analyzing data, we did not see any specific significant results for the relationship between drought effects and TRW data in the case study. Then in the second step, modeling continued with the climate variables. Finally, the results demonstrated that among the three used methods, the NARX method achieved the best outcomes, as MLR with r = 0.44 (p < 0.003); SR with r = 0.27 in p < 0.001; and the NARX model was the best outcomes with r = 0.78. This study revealed that regression methods were not strong enough to reconstruct TRW data. Whereas, by noticeable results, the AI method has obtained the best performance.    

How to cite: Salehnia, N. and Ahn, J.: Applying artificial intelligence in modeling the relationship of tree ring growth index with different climate variables, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2212, 2022.

EGU22-2223 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Trees Talk Tremor—Wood Anatomy and δ13C Content Reveal Contrasting Tree-Growth Responses to Earthquakes 

Christian Mohr, Michael Manga, Gerhard Helle, Ingo Heinrich, Laura Giese, and Oliver Korup

Large earthquakes can increase the amount of water feeding stream flows, raise groundwater levels, and thus grant plant roots more access to water in water-limited environments. Here, we quantify growth and photosynthetic responses of Pinus radiata plantations to the Maule Mw 8.8 earthquake in geometrically simple headwater catchments of Chile's Coastal Range. To this end, we combine high-resolution wood anatomic (lumen area) and biogeochemical (δ13C of wood cellulose) proxies of daily to weekly tree growth sampled from trees on valley bottoms and close to ridge lines. We find that, immediately after the earthquake, at least two out of six tree trees on the valley floor had enlarged lumen area and lowered δ13C, while trees along the hillslope ridge had a reverse trend. Our findings favor a control of soil water on this response, largely consistent with models that predict how enhanced postseismic vertical soil permeability causes groundwater levels to rise on valley floors, but fall along the ridges. Statistical analysis with non-parametric boosted regression trees reveals that streamflow discharge gained importance for photosynthetic activity on the ridges, but lost importance on the valley floor after the earthquake. We conclude that earthquakes may stimulate ecohydrological conditions favoring tree growth over days to weeks by triggering stomatal opening. The weak and short-lived signals that we identified, however, imply that such responses are only valid under water-limited, rather than energy-limited tree, growth. Hence, dendrochronological studies targeted at annual resolution may overlook some earthquake effects on tree vitality.

How to cite: Mohr, C., Manga, M., Helle, G., Heinrich, I., Giese, L., and Korup, O.: Trees Talk Tremor—Wood Anatomy and δ13C Content Reveal Contrasting Tree-Growth Responses to Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2223, 2022.

EGU22-3077 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests 

Kristina Anderson-Teixeira and the ForestGEO dendrochronology team

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

How to cite: Anderson-Teixeira, K. and the ForestGEO dendrochronology team: Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3077, 2022.

Stable hydrogen and carbon isotope ratios of wood lignin methoxy groups (δ13CLM and δ2HLM values) have been shown to be reliable proxies of past temperature variability. Recent studies revealed δ2HLM values even work in temperate environments where classical tree-ring width and maximum latewood density data are less skilful. In this presentation, we report 100 years of annually resolved δ13CLM values of four beech trees (Fagus sylvatica) from a temperate site near Hohenpeißenberg in southern Germany. The series are compared with regional to continental scale climate observations to assess their potential for paleoclimate reconstruction. The δ13CLM values were corrected for both the Suess effect to mitigate the effect of decreasing δ13C in atmospheric CO2 and the physiological tree response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations using different factors for possible changes in discrimination. The calibration of δ13CLM chronologies against regional instrumental data reveals highest temperature sensitivity with mean summer, annual, and previous-year September to current-year August temperatures.

We additionally compared the new δ13CLM chronology with the previously produced δ2HLM series of the same trees to evaluate the additional gain of assessing past climate variability using a dual-isotope approach. The δ2HLM values predominantly reflect large-scale temperatures since highest correlations were found with western European temperatures. Weak and mainly non-significant correlations were found between precipitation and both isotopic chronologies (δ13CLM and δ2HLM values). Our findings described for the first time the great potential of using δ13CLM values from temperate, low elevation environments as a proxy for local temperatures, whereas the combination of both proxies supports the reconstruction of temperature variations at different spatial and temporal scales.

How to cite: Wieland, A., Greule, M., Roemer, P., Esper, J., and Keppler, F.: Climate signals in stable carbon and hydrogen isotopes of lignin methoxy groups: assessing the potential for temperature reconstructions at different spatial and temporal scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3369, 2022.

EGU22-3881 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Drought legacy effects in radial tree growth are rarely significant under heightened statistical scrutiny 

Stefan Klesse, Flurin Babst, Margaret E.K. Evans, Alexander Hurley, Christoforos Pappas, and Richard L. Peters

Drought legacy effects in radial tree growth have been extensively studied over the last decade and are found to critically influence carbon sequestration in woody biomass. Typically quantified as a deviation from “normal” growth, drought legacy magnitude and statistical significance depend on the definition of expected vs. unexpected growth variability under average conditions – a definition that has received insufficient theoretical validation.

Here, we revisit popular legacy effect analyses using the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and employ a synthetic data simulation to disentangle four key variables influencing the magnitude of legacy effects. We show that legacy effects i) are mainly influenced by the overall auto-correlation of radial growth time series, ii) depend on climate-growth cross-correlation, iii) are directly proportional to the year-to-year variability of the growth time series, and iv) scale with the chosen extreme event threshold. Our analysis revealed that legacy effects are a direct outcome of the omnipresent biological memory.

We further found that the interpretation of legacy effects following individual drought events at specific sites is challenged by high stochasticity, and show that the commonly perceived stronger legacy effects for conifers are the result of higher auto-correlation compared to deciduous broadleaves. Given that the existing literature has not sufficiently addressed biological memory, we present two pathways to improve future assessment and interpretation of legacy effects. First, we provide a simulation algorithm to a posteriori account for auto-correlated residuals of the initial regression model between growth and climate, i.e. a corrected Null model to determine statistical significance, thereby retrospectively adjusting expectations for “normal” growth variability. The second pathway is to a priori include lagged climate parameters in the regression model. This substantially reduces the magnitude of observed legacy effects and thus challenges us to revisit estimates of drought-induced growth deviations by considering the full spectrum of expected growth behavior. 

How to cite: Klesse, S., Babst, F., Evans, M. E. K., Hurley, A., Pappas, C., and Peters, R. L.: Drought legacy effects in radial tree growth are rarely significant under heightened statistical scrutiny, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3881, 2022.

EGU22-4552 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Using a process-based dendroclimatic proxy system model in a data assimilation framework: a test case in the Southern Hemisphere over the past centuries 

Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot

Tree-ring widths represent the most commonly used proxy to reconstruct the climate of the last millennium at high resolution, thanks to their large-scale availability. The approach often relies on a relationship between tree-ring width series and climate estimated on the basis of a linear regression. The underlying linearity and stationarity assumptions may be inadequate. Dendroclimatic process-based models, such as MAIDEN (Modeling and Analysis In DENdroecology), may be able to overcome some of the limitations of the statistical approach. MAIDEN is a mechanistic ecophysiological model that simulates tree-ring growth starting from surface air temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration daily inputs. In this study, we successfully include the MAIDEN model into a data assimilation procedure as a proxy system model to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations and provide a spatially-gridded reconstruction of continental temperature, precipitation and winds in the mid to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere over the past centuries. More specifically, we evaluate the benefits of using process-based tree-growth models such as MAIDEN for reconstructing past climate with data assimilation compared to the commonly used linear regression. The comparison of the reconstructions with instrumental data indicates an equivalent skill of both the regression- and process-based proxy system models in the data assimilation framework. Nevertheless, the MAIDEN model still brings important advantages that could result in more robust reconstructions beyond the instrumental era. Moreover, improvements continuously made in such models or in their calibration procedure also offer encouraging perspectives. Important steps have thus been made to demonstrate that using a process-based model like MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve the large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.

How to cite: Rezsöhazy, J., Dalaiden, Q., Klein, F., Goosse, H., and Guiot, J.: Using a process-based dendroclimatic proxy system model in a data assimilation framework: a test case in the Southern Hemisphere over the past centuries, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4552, 2022.

EGU22-5358 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Oxygen isotopes in Amazon tree rings as indicators of change in the hydrological cycle 

Roel BRienen, Bruno Cintra, Jessica Baker, Emanuel Gloor, Jochen Schöngart, Arnoud Boom, Gerhard Helle, and Melanie Leng

The Amazon is the largest catchment in the world, discharging ca. 17% of global freshwater, and plays an important role in the global water and carbon cycles. Recent decades have seen an increase in floods of the Amazon river, but also increases in dry season severity and length. Instrumental long-term climate data to assess the magnitude of these changes are relatively scarce. Tree-ring based climate reconstructions may help improving past climate records from this vast region and put these changes in historical perspective.

While standard tree ring widths chronologies in the tropics are generally weakly related to climate, tree ring d18O records from Cedrela odorata in Bolivia are a proven proxy for Amazon basin-wide rainfall, and thus Amazon river discharge. However, these “terra firme” trees grow during the wet season and thus do not provide information on the dry season. Here we present a new proxy for dry season precipitation from Amazonian floodplain trees of Macrolobium acaciifolium from the western Amazon. As this species grows during the non-flooded period, the dry season, their tree ring d18O records should pertain variation of dry season precipitation d18O. A comparions of tree ring d18O from floodplain and terra firme trees show opposing trends since the 1970s, indicating increases in wet season precipitation and decreases in dry season precipitation. These records are consistent with recent trends in peaks and troughs of Amazon river levels, and provide support of a recent intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle. We conclude that tree-ring d18O records are an important tool for tropical climate reconstructions, and even allow climate reconstructions with seasonal resolution. In addition, as signals arise from variation in (meteorological) precipitation d18O, tree ring d18O chronologies do not need detrending, and show highly synchronized patterns even over very large scales, allowing rigorous cross-dating between species and sites, and facilitating further development in this vast region

How to cite: BRienen, R., Cintra, B., Baker, J., Gloor, E., Schöngart, J., Boom, A., Helle, G., and Leng, M.: Oxygen isotopes in Amazon tree rings as indicators of change in the hydrological cycle, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5358, 2022.

EGU22-5772 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

The phylogenetic impact on photosynthetic and post-photosynthetic hydrogen isotope fractionation in 73 tree species 

Philipp Schuler, Valentina Vitali, Matthias Saurer, Arthur Gessler, Nina Buchmann, and Marco Lehmann

While carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes in tree-ring cellulose are widely used as climatic and physiological proxy in dendro sciences, the processes that are affecting the fractionation of non-exchangeable hydrogen (δ2H) isotopes and shaping the tree-ring δ2H profile are barely understood and thus not widely applied yet.

To establish a first comprehensive comparison of the photosynthetic and post-photosynthetic 2H-fractionation of northern-hemisphere trees, we sampled leaves and twigs of 152 trees representing 73 species, 48 genus, 19 families and 12 orders containing both evergreen and deciduous angio- and gymnosperms in a common garden, as well as diurnal cycles (6 species from 6 families) of leaf sugar. We extracted leaf water and sugar, as well as twig water and the current year twig xylem cellulose for δ2H analysis. Leaf sugar and twig cellulose were measured with a newly established hot water vapour equilibration method.

Our findings show a wide variation in 2H-fractionation between species growing at a common site. The measured δ2H values ranged from -63.5 to –33.4‰ for xylem water, between -22.3 and +28.5‰ for leaf water, between -160.9 and +12.6‰ for leaf sugar and between -79.1 and +6.9‰ for twig cellulose. The biological fractionation between leaf water and leaf sugar ranged between -169.6 and +24.2‰ and between leaf sugar and current year twig cellulose from -34.6 to +116.8‰. In general, sugar and cellulose of gymnosperms were significantly more 2H depleted than those of angiosperm species, with no impact of the leaf shedding behaviour to the measured δ2H values. We observed significant differences in the δ2H values between different orders and families, but not between genus and species within a family or genus, respectively. This pattern indicates that the photosynthetic and post-photosynthetic 2H-fractionation are based on conservative metabolic reactions with a generally low mutation rate.

Additionally, the results from our diurnal sampling of leaf sugar are showing first evidence for a dynamic and species-specific nature of the photosynthetic 2H-fractionation, which is in contrast to current models, which are assuming the same constant 2H-fractionation processes for all plant species.

We conclude that the here presented results will help to improve our understanding of the mechanisms influencing the δ2H values of leaf sugar and tree-ring cellulose and thus enabling the scientific community to use δ2H in tree-ring cellulose as the third isotope-proxy for dendrochronological studies.

How to cite: Schuler, P., Vitali, V., Saurer, M., Gessler, A., Buchmann, N., and Lehmann, M.: The phylogenetic impact on photosynthetic and post-photosynthetic hydrogen isotope fractionation in 73 tree species, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5772, 2022.

Stable isotope analyses (δ18O, δ2H) combined with the tree-ring dating have enormous potential for tracing freshwater resource availability under changing climate and in the context of the impacts of other human activities. This study focusses on the isotopic composition of tree-rings in combination with an anatomical analysis of the European Larch (Larix Decidua) species from different upstream and downstream sites along the Turtmänna river in south-western Switzerland. The results show distinctive patterns of year-to-year tree-ring growth from their constructed chronology dated back to 1851 (i.e. a 170-year record). A trend of a decreasing growth was noted over the last two decades. Decreasing growth was correlated (r = 0.50) with a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature (r = 0.30) during the growing season (between June and October) of previous and current years. The isotopic analysis shows a depletion in 18O in the trees fed by glacial meltwater close to the river as compared to the trees fed by precipitation distal to the river. Given the changes in climate, trees closer to the river are becoming more dependent on river-derived water, which in turn is sourced from melting glaciers. This hence has important consequences for the hydropower generation and water availability.

How to cite: Islam, N., Vennemann, T., and Lane, S. N.: Use of stable isotope signals from tree rings as proxy for tracing the combined effects of climate change and hydropower on glacier-derived water resources in the Turtmänna river catchment, Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5873, 2022.

EGU22-6271 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Impacts of the 2018-2019 drought: cumulative growth and stress responses in a floodplain forest ecosystem 

Florian Schnabel, Sarah Purrucker, Lara Schmitt, Rolf A. Engelmann, Anja Kahl, Ronny Richter, Carolin Seele-Dilbat, Georgios Skiadaresis, and Christian Wirth

Intensifying climate change is successively increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as droughts. In 2018–2019, Central European forests were hit by two consecutive hotter drought years that were unprecedented in their severity at least in the last 250 years. Such hotter droughts, where drought coincides with a heat wave, may have severe detrimental impacts on forest ecosystems as highlighted by reports of widespread tree defoliation and mortality across Central Europe in 2018–2019. Here, we examine the effect of this unprecedented event on tree growth and physiological stress responses (measured as increase in wood carbon isotope composition, Δδ13C) in a Central European floodplain forest ecosystem. We used tree rings of the dominant tree species Quercus robur, Acer pseudoplatanus and Fraxinus excelsior to compare growth responses, Δδ13C and drought legacy effects during the consecutive drought years 2018–2019 with effects observed in former single drought years (2003, 2006, 2015). We found that tree growth was, except for F. excelsior, not reduced in 2018 and that drought responses in 2018 were comparable to responses in former single drought years. This indicates that water availability in floodplain forests can partly buffer drought effects and meteorological water deficits. Nonetheless, the 2018 drought – which was the hottest and driest year since the start of records – induced drought legacies in tree growth while former drought years did not. Consistent with this observation, all tree species showed strong decreases in growth and increases in Δδ13C in the second hotter drought year 2019. The observed stress responses in 2019 were stronger than in any other examined drought year. We posit that the cumulative effect of two consecutive hotter drought years likely caused this unprecedented stress response across all species. Drought responses were consistent for both drought-stress indicators (growth response and Δδ13C), but the timing and magnitude of responses were species-specific: Q. robur exhibited the overall smallest response, followed by A. pseudoplatanus with the strongest response in F. excelsior. We discuss these species-specific differences in light of the species’ stomatal control (inferred from high-resolution sap flow measurements during drought at our site) and species’ resistance to xylem cavitation. Overall, our findings highlight that consecutive hotter droughts constitute a novel threat to forests, even in floodplain forests with comparably high levels of water supply. These results and similar research may contribute towards understanding and forecasting tree species responses to more frequent hotter droughts under intensifying climate change.

How to cite: Schnabel, F., Purrucker, S., Schmitt, L., Engelmann, R. A., Kahl, A., Richter, R., Seele-Dilbat, C., Skiadaresis, G., and Wirth, C.: Impacts of the 2018-2019 drought: cumulative growth and stress responses in a floodplain forest ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6271, 2022.

EGU22-6541 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Multi-parameter reconstruction of the past 400 years of Carpathian temperatures from tree rings 

Juliana Nogueira, Miloš Rydval, Krešimir Begović, Martin Lexa, Jon Schurman, Yumei Jiang, Georg von Arx, Jesper Björklund, Kristina Seftigen, and Jan Tumajer

Instrumental data derived from meteorological stations provide a fairly reliable record of climate variability for at least the last century for most parts of Europe. Proxy-based climate reconstructions have been extensively developed throughout the continent over recent decades to extend these records further back in time. However, to date, parts of central and eastern Europe remain underrepresented, leading to gaps in high-resolution climatic information even in recent centuries. This issue is predominantly linked to large uncertainties in existing records and limitations in data quality associated with a generally weak climatic sensitivity of available proxy records. The REPLICATE project, presented here, aims to address this deficiency by utilizing various tree-ring parameters from temperature-sensitive Norway spruce (Picea abies). The samples, collected from treeline or near-treeline environments, will be used to develop a set of temperature reconstructions across four sub-regions of the Carpathian Mountains. By doing so, we aim to contribute to filling in the spatial paleoclimatic and data quality gap in central-eastern Europe. To improve the climatic signal, we utilized a combination of tree ring width (TRW) corrected for non-climatic (disturbance) trends and blue intensity (BI) series derived from scanned images as a surrogate for maximum latewood density. We also developed a novel tree-ring parameter similar to BI based on high-resolution reflected light microscope images of the tree sample surface – termed surface intensity (SI) – which accounts for resolution and color bias limitations commonly encountered in BI datasets. Additionally, traditional thin section-based quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) parameters and their reflected light surface imaging-based counterparts (sQWA) were also included. Integrating this range of tree-ring parameters in a complementary fashion helps isolate, optimize and extract stronger climatic signals by accounting for and minimizing a range of parameter-specific limitations and biases, yielding improved calibration with a more accurate representation of low-frequency climatic trends and high-frequency extremes. From these multi-parameter tree-ring chronologies, annually resolved, robust, high-quality summer temperature reconstructions, extending to the early to mid-17th century, are under development for four Carpathian locations (i.e., northern Slovakia, western Ukraine, northern and central Romania). Initial results indicate that the reconstructions based on such a multi-parameter approach can produce paleoclimatic records with reduced uncertainty that explain between 50% and 60% of the regional temperature variability. These reconstructions will contribute to a more highly resolved temperature dataset in a part of Europe with considerable research potential, resulting in an improved spatial representation of past European temperature fluctuations. Also, by providing a reliable historical context to evaluate return periods and magnitudes of temperature extremes, they will contribute to assessing potential future socioeconomic impacts of climate change (e.g., on agriculture) and developing possible mitigation solutions.

How to cite: Nogueira, J., Rydval, M., Begović, K., Lexa, M., Schurman, J., Jiang, Y., von Arx, G., Björklund, J., Seftigen, K., and Tumajer, J.: Multi-parameter reconstruction of the past 400 years of Carpathian temperatures from tree rings, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6541, 2022.

EGU22-6713 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Climatic context of blue ring formation in high elevation bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva D.K. Bailey). 

Liliana Siekacz, Charlotte Pearson, Matthew Salzer, and Marcin Koprowski

'Blue Rings' (BRs) are distinct wood anatomical anomalies recently discovered in several tree species. Studies connect their occurrence to lower than normal temperatures during the cell wall lignification phase of xylogenesis which usually continue after radial growth is completed, following the growth season. BRs are also potentially more sensitive to temperature than frost rings which require freezing temperatures (linked with the forcing of volcanic eruptions) to form. Therefore, systematic analysis of blue rings can add another level of time resolution and/or sensitivity to dendroclimatic studies.  North American bristlecone pine is an invaluable resource for paleoclimatological reconstruction due to its extreme longevity (its specimens are reported to commonly exceed the age of 4000 years), high durability and favourable environmental conditions which hamper decay, enabling the construction of chronologies spanning more than 8000 years. Preliminary results for the last 1000 years reveal that BRs in bristlecone pine coincide significantly with major volcanic eruptions. Detailed analysis of recorded temperature conditions in the years of BRs formation can therefore provide additional information on the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate in periods where meteorological observations are unavailable. To establish baselines for this, we present the climatic context of BR occurrence in bristlecone pine for the period since 1895 where modelled surface mean monthly temperatures are available for the grid cell pertaining to the study area location (4km spatial resolution, from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University). A group of 83 cores of bristlecone pine (originating from the vicinity of the Sheep Mountain/Patriarch Grove area of the Ancient Bristlecone Pine Forest in the White Mountains of California, 37.5 W 118.2 N) was thin sectioned on a GSL 1 microtome and further prepared following Gärtner & Schweingruber (2013) safranine and astrablue staining procedures to reveal lignified cell walls in red and underlignified cell walls in blue. Scanned and digitized thin-sections were measured and cross-dated noting years of BR occurrence.  A generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) was fit with mean monthly temperatures and distance from treeline (DTL) as independent variables, and a binary response variable representing the absence (0) or presence (1) of a BR in a particular year, in a particular sample. Results indicate that BRs positively correlate with mean monthly temperatures of February and October and negatively with April, June, August, September and DTL. BR formation most strongly correlates with September temperatures, and interestingly, also lacks correlation with July temperatures.

How to cite: Siekacz, L., Pearson, C., Salzer, M., and Koprowski, M.: Climatic context of blue ring formation in high elevation bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva D.K. Bailey)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6713, 2022.

EGU22-6826 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Increasing water-use efficiency mediates effects of atmospheric carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen on growth variability of central European conifers 

Vaclav Treml, Jan Tumajer, Katerina Jandova, Filip Oulehle, Milos Rydval, Vojtech Cada, Kerstin Treydte, Jiri Masek, Lenka Vondrovicova, Zuzana Lhotakova, and Miroslav Svoboda

Climate controls forest biomass production through direct effects on cambial activity and indirectly through interactions with CO2, air pollution, and nutrients availability. Atmospheric concentration of CO2 and sulfur or nitrogen deposition could exert a robust indirect control on wood formation, since they influence the stomatal regulation of transpiration and carbon uptake, that is, intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE). Here we provide 120-year long time series of iWUE, tree growth, climatic and sulfur and nitrogen(SN) deposition trends for two widespread tree species, Pinus sylvestris (PISY) and Picea abies (PCAB), at their lower and upper distribution margins in Central Europe. The main goals were to explain iWUE trends using theoretical scenarios and climatic and SN deposition data and to assess the contribution of climate and iWUE to the observed growth trends. Our results show that after a notable increase in iWUE between the 1950s and 1980s, the positive trend slowed down. Substantial rise of iWUE since the 1950s resulted from a combination of an accelerated increase in atmospheric CO2 (Ca) and a stable level of leaf CO2 (Ci). The offset of observed iWUE values from the trajectory of iWUE growth proportional to increase in Ca (constant Ci/Ca scenario) was explained by trends in SN deposition (all sites) together with the variation of drought conditions (low-elevation sites only). Increasing iWUE over the 20th and 21st century improved tree growth at low-elevation drought-limited sites. In contrast to low-elevation sites, recent warming was the main reason for the growth increase at high-elevation PCAB. We propose that SN pollution should be considered to explain the steep increases in iWUE of conifers in the 20th century in a broader area of Central Europe and in other regions with a significant SN deposition history.

How to cite: Treml, V., Tumajer, J., Jandova, K., Oulehle, F., Rydval, M., Cada, V., Treydte, K., Masek, J., Vondrovicova, L., Lhotakova, Z., and Svoboda, M.: Increasing water-use efficiency mediates effects of atmospheric carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen on growth variability of central European conifers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6826, 2022.

EGU22-6899 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Piloting novel multi-centennial palaeoclimate records from mainland southeast Australia. 

Jacinda O'Connor, Benjamin Henley, Matthew Brookhouse, and Kathryn Allen

High-resolution palaeoclimate proxies are fundamental to our understanding of the diverse climatic history of the Australian mainland, particularly given the deficiency in instrumental datasets spanning greater than a century. Annually resolved, tree-ring based proxies play a unique role in addressing limitations in our knowledge of interannual to multi-decadal temperature and hydroclimatic variability prior to the instrumental period. Here we present cross-dated ring-width (RW) and minimum blue-intensity (BI) chronologies spanning 70 years (1929 – 1998) for Podocarpus lawrencei Hook.f., the Australian mainland's only alpine conifer, based on nine full-disk cross-sections from Mount Loch in the Victorian Alps. Correlations with climate variables from observation stations and gridded data reveal a significant positive relationship between RW and mean monthly maximum temperatures in winter throughout central Victoria (r = 0.62, p < 0.001), and a significant negative correlation to winter precipitation (r = -0.51, p < 0.001). We also found significant negative correlations between RW and monthly snow depth data from Spencer Creek in New South Wales (r = -0.60, p < 0.001). Of the assessed BI parameters, delta blue-intensity (ΔBI; the difference between early- and late-wood BI) displayed the greatest sensitivity to climate, with robust spatial correlations with mean October to December maximum and minimum monthly temperatures (r = -0.43, p < 0.001; r = -0.51, p < 0.001) and July precipitation (r = 0.44, p < 0.001), across large areas of northern Victoria. These promising findings highlight the utility of this species for future work. With the very limited availability of suitable long-lived and cross-datable species on the Australian mainland, these results have implications for the significant advancement of palaeoclimate records in southeastern Australia and the potential for improvement in our understanding of past climate in the region.

How to cite: O'Connor, J., Henley, B., Brookhouse, M., and Allen, K.: Piloting novel multi-centennial palaeoclimate records from mainland southeast Australia., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6899, 2022.

EGU22-7275 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Among-provenance diversity and phenotypic plasticity of water-use efficiency in sessile oak populations growing in a mesic common garden. 

Arivoara Rabarijaona, Stéphane Ponton, Didier Bert, Alexis Ducousso, Béatrice Richard, Joseph Levillain, and Oliver Brendel

Abstract:

As a widespread species, sessile oak (Quercus petraea) populations occupy a wide range of ecological conditions with different local selection pressures, especially different drought exposure, which would have favoured different locally adapted populations. Water-use efficiency (WUE), which is defined at the tree level as the ratio between the biomass produced and the quantity of water transpired during the same period of time, is an interesting candidate trait for adaptation to drought. Six hundred trees from sixteen different provenances planted in 1993 in a common garden in the North-Eastern of France were harvested during the 2014-2015 winter. Intrinsic WUE (WUEi), estimated from carbon isotope composition (δ13C) measurements of tree-rings, was compared among and within provenances for three contrasted years: (i) 2000, a wet year; (ii) 2003, a severely dry year; (iii) and 2005, a moderately dry year. The main purpose was to assess the drought-adaptive character of WUEi for sessile oak trees. For this, (i) the adaptive character of WUEi was evaluated by relating population mean WUEi to the mean pedoclimatic conditions of their provenance sites. (ii) The phenotypic plasticity of WUEi to drought was evaluated by comparing  the values observed in 2003 and 2005 to those of  2000 ; this plasticity was also related to the mean pedoclimatic conditions of their provenance sites. (iii) The contribution of WUEi to tree and population fitness was assessed from the relationship between WUEi and tree growth. Significant differences in δ13C (thus WUEi) were found among populations. However, no linear relationship was established between mean population δ13C and the mean pedoclimatic conditions of the provenance sites. Based on these results observed on juvenile sessile oak trees in the relatively wet conditions of the common garden, no local adaptation in terms of WUEi was detected. An increase in drought intensity resulted in an increase in population WUEi and all provenances displayed a similar plasticity of WUEi to drought, suggesting no among population diversity for drought responses. A significant correlation between WUEi and tree growth was detected only during the wet year, when populations with a higher WUEi also had a higher growth index. Moreover, a much larger variability in WUEi was demonstrated within populations (2–4‰) than among-population (0.6‰).

Key words : Climate change, assisted migration, local adaptation, water-use efficiency, fitness, diversity

How to cite: Rabarijaona, A., Ponton, S., Bert, D., Ducousso, A., Richard, B., Levillain, J., and Brendel, O.: Among-provenance diversity and phenotypic plasticity of water-use efficiency in sessile oak populations growing in a mesic common garden., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7275, 2022.

EGU22-7577 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Vapor pressure deficit governs the relative contribution of leaf and source water to intra-annual δ18O variations of tree rings 

Elisabet Martínez-Sancho, Patrick Fonti, Alessandro Gregori, Arthur Gessler, Marco Lehmann, Matthias Saurer, and Kerstin Treydte

Oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in tree rings carry a strong potential to retrospectively evaluate tree water uptake and physiological response to climate. Their interpretation can, however, be challenging due to the complexity of the isotopic fractionations along the soil-tree-atmosphere continuum. Indeed, several processes play a role in defining the final tree-ring isotopic signal: source water variations, evaporative processes at the soil surface and leaf level, and mixing of xylem water that might exchange with new assimilates associated with phloem transport and synthesis of wood constituents. Disentangling these influences along the growing season and how climate conditions modify them are remaining challenges to exploit the full potential of δ18O tree-ring records as a climate proxy.

In this study, we aim at identifying the contribution of leaf water enrichment and source water on the tree-ring δ18O signature by assessing intra-annual variations of δ18O along the soil-leaf-tree ring pathway of larch (Larix decidua Mill.). We focus on two sites with contrasting water availability in the Lötschental valley (Swiss Alps) and three consecutive growing seasons (2011-2013). Our approach takes into consideration specific timing of the involved processes with a high spatio-temporal resolution: environmental conditions, diurnal sapflow-derived transpiration rates, δ18O analysis of xylem and leaf water, and intra-annual tree-ring δ18O measurements coupled with wood formation kinetics. Structural equation models (SEM) were applied to statistically assess the relations among δ18O values of the different pathway components. Furthermore, we calibrated mechanistic models of leaf-water and tree-ring cellulose δ18O to explore site-specific contributions of the fractionation processes (e.g., Péclet effect and the proportion of xylem-cellulose synthesis exchange [Pex]) and investigated their climatic drivers.

Our results showed that intra-annual xylem water δ18O and transpiration rates differed between sites and years whereas needle water δ18O did not differ significantly between sites (but between years). However, tree-ring cellulose δ18O values were higher at the dry site resembling those differences observed in xylem water δ18O. SEMs reinforced these results since xylem water δ18O contributed more to cellulose δ18O in comparison to needle water δ18O, and this effect was more prominent at the dry site. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) had strong control on the overall leaf water-related 18O-fractionations. However, mechanistic leaf-water δ18O models did not indicate a relevant role of the Péclet effect in our study. Most importantly, mechanistic models of cellulose δ18O revealed that Pex was variable along the growing season and its variability was significantly associated with variations in VPD.

Our study suggests that the imprint of the source water signal on the δ18O signature in tree rings is highly dominant, particularly during episodes of high VPD, potentially overwriting signals coming from leaf fractionation processes.

How to cite: Martínez-Sancho, E., Fonti, P., Gregori, A., Gessler, A., Lehmann, M., Saurer, M., and Treydte, K.: Vapor pressure deficit governs the relative contribution of leaf and source water to intra-annual δ18O variations of tree rings, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7577, 2022.

EGU22-7719 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Dendroprovenancing instream wood at the watershed scale applying fingerprinting techniques 

Javier del Hoyo Gibaja, Torsten Vennemann, Marceline Vauridel, and Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva

Within the field of dendrochronology, different sub-disciplines arise using the information stored in the wood for a variety of purposes. In this study, we use dendroprovenance to develop a methodology that allows us to infer the source area of instream large wood (LW) at the river basin scale applying fingerprinting techniques.

LW is mainly supplied to fluvial ecosystems by riparian vegetation and nearby areas, and the presence of wood in a river determines its geomorphology and ecology; but also, it is associated with an increase in danger and risk to infrastructures and population. For this reason, research on the origin of LW is essential to better understand LW processes and to facilitate decision-making in the management of the forest and the river.

The tracers we have used so far are the stable isotopes coming from the water molecule: hydrogen (D/H) and oxygen (18O/16O). These isotopes show spatial variations depending on evaporation-precipitation processes and resulting isotopic fractionation. Subsequently, the water absorbed by a tree growing in a particular place stores this isotopic signal, and when that tree (or a piece of it) falls and becomes part of the river ecosystem, we can use this isotopic signal to infer the origin of the wood.

Our study site is a 50 km reach of the Rhone River between Lake Geneva and Genissiat dam (3000 km2 of catchment) in France, where all arriving wood is stored upstream from the dam. The goal is to differentiate the wood coming from the two main tributaries, the Arve and Valserine rivers (located in different mountain systems) since they are the main wood suppliers at Genissiat.  

Preliminary results show clear differences in the isotopic composition when comparing samples from one tributary and the other, with the most notable differences in the most recent tree rings.

Lastly, we plan to analyze other tracers such as minor and trace elements that are linked to the geology and combine them with the isotopic ratios in a multivariate analysis to determine the origin of the wood in a more accurate manner. Consequently, we will have developed a new dendroprovenance method that can be extrapolated to other fields, taking a step forward in the application of our knowledge about tree rings.

How to cite: del Hoyo Gibaja, J., Vennemann, T., Vauridel, M., and Ruiz-Villanueva, V.: Dendroprovenancing instream wood at the watershed scale applying fingerprinting techniques, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7719, 2022.

EGU22-8154 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Silver fir tree ring width: a proxy for winter temperature variability in the Carpathians? 

Ionel Popa, Catalin Roibu, Aurel Perșoiu, Zoltan Kern, and Cristian Sidor

A composite Silver fir tree ring width chronology from seven mountain sites in the Eastern Carpathian Mountains (Europe) was established for AD 1588-2021, with SSS>0.8 and EPS>0.85 for AD 1750-2012. The bootstrap correlation analysis of the tree ring index with monthly climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) shows a positive and relatively time constant response to mean winter-spring temperature (November to March). The correlation between Silver fir tree ring proxy and winter-spring temperature is high and statistically significant (0.556 at p<0.05). The reconstruction statistics (R2, RE, CE and DW) indicate a good skill of the regression model between proxy data and winter temperature back to 1901. RE and CE statistics range between 0.32 and 0.39, and DW has values between 2.05 and 2.18. These results show good reliability of the model, and for the entire period, the reconstruction explains ~ 30% of winter temperature variability. The temperature reconstruction from AD 1750 shows inter-decadal fluctuation induced by low frequencies sinusoids (waves). The reconstructed mean winter temperatures for the 1750-2012 period was -2.93°C with -0.31°C colder than the 1961-2009 reference period. The longest period with high frequencies of years with low temperatures was recorded in 1740-1800, coinciding with the end of the Little Ice Age. After this coldest winter period, a six-year period with extreme warm winters was identified. The warming trend was more distinguishable science AD 1880 to the present, especially through the high frequency of mild winters. The coldest reconstructed winters for entire period were find in 2003 (anomalies= -1,56), 2012 (anomalies = -1,32) and 1965 (anomalies = -1,24). The warmest winters were recorded in 2001 (anomalies = +1,71), 1998 (anomalies = +1,48) and 2007 (anomalies = +1,37). The pattern of spatial correlation between proxy data and winter-spring temperature releases a wide extend of high correlation (>0.5), covering the North-Western Carpathians, continues with the Eastern chain of the Carpathian Mountains and finishes with the extreme South-East of Romania. Correlation with the Central Europe gridded temperatures is significant (>0.4), and with the Alpine Arc grid, temperatures are quite low (0.3). This result provides a regional scale of the winter-spring temperature reconstruction, suggesting a possible west-east gradient across Europe, potentially influenced by the interplay between the eastward expansion of Atlantic influence and the westward expansion of the West Asian influence.

How to cite: Popa, I., Roibu, C., Perșoiu, A., Kern, Z., and Sidor, C.: Silver fir tree ring width: a proxy for winter temperature variability in the Carpathians?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8154, 2022.

EGU22-8756 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Tree-ring oxygen isotope patterns from Siberian and Canadian subarctic to test usability of local versus gridded climate data 

Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Mikhail S. Zharkov, Marina V. Fonti, Tatyana V. Trushkina, Valentin V. Barinov, Anna V. Taynik, Trevor J. Porter, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Alberto Arzac, and Matthias Saurer

Rapid temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increase along with precipitation decrease over the past decades lead to massive wildfires and permafrost degradation in boreal forests. Conifer trees growing in subarctic regions are highly sensitive to these climatic changes due to their location at the high latitudes, where air temperature is the limiting factor, but also water relations have a strong impact on tree growth.

In this study, we aimed (i) to assess the usability of local vs. gridded climate data; (ii) to reveal how conifer trees capture temperature and moisture signals based on the local weather station data vs. gridded data from the two Siberian sites in northeastern Yakutia and eastern Taimyr, and one site from northwestern Canada in Mackenzie Delta; (iii) to perform trend analysis of climatic data and δ18O in tree-ring cellulose; and (iv) to carry out spatial correlation analysis of oxygen isotope patterns and determine the distribution of climatic signal over broad geographical scales in the Siberian and Canadian subarctic.

Comparative analysis of the local and gridded climatic data (air temperature, precipitation and VPD) for the three study sites showed that mainly temperatures are highly correlated between each other. Subarctic trees grow in a temperature-limited environment; therefore, the large spatial coherence of temperature signals is not surprising. Conversely, insignificant correlations between local and gridded for precipitation and rather low correlations for VPD is attributed to the more heterogeneous nature of moisture variables at larger spatial scales. Therefore, analyzing moisture changes in the subarctic using local weather station data is advantageous compared to gridded data.

Trend analysis of the climate data showed that drastic changes in climate variability occurred from the 1980s in the investigated subarctic regions and were even more pronounced from 2000 to 2021. Recent warming and development of drought conditions were stronger in the Canadian subarctic than the Siberian subarctic sites. Drastic precipitation changes, temperature and VPD increase mainly occurred during winter, spring and autumn in the studied subarctic regions. New updated stable isotope chronologies from remote subarctic regions allowed us to accurately reconstruct moisture changes using precipitation and VPD data from the local weather stations while reconstructing air temperature using gridded data.

This research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) grant number 21-17-00006.

How to cite: Churakova (Sidorova), O. V., Zharkov, M. S., Fonti, M. V., Trushkina, T. V., Barinov, V. V., Taynik, A. V., Porter, T. J., Kirdyanov, A. V., Arzac, A., and Saurer, M.: Tree-ring oxygen isotope patterns from Siberian and Canadian subarctic to test usability of local versus gridded climate data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8756, 2022.

EGU22-8925 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Snow avalanche activity in the Țarcu Mountains, Southern Carpathians. Comparative analysis based on tree ring studies. 

Renata Feher, Patrick Chiroiu, and Mircea Voiculescu

Information regarding the Spatio-temporal behavior of extreme natural phenomena, such as avalanches, has become necessary due to the increase in human casualties and property damage in recent decades. Thus, the prevention of geomorphological risks associated with high mountain areas requires knowledge of the characteristics of geomorphological processes that occur here. Avalanches occupy a central place among these phenomena with the greatest destructive capacity (Voiculescu, 2000).

The aim of this study is to 1) reconstruct the past activity of snow avalanches in the Tarcu Mountains and to fill a gap in knowledge due to the lack of such studies in the studied area and 2) to point out the synchronicity of major events with those reconstructed in other mountain areas in the Southern Carpathians: Bucegi, Făgăraş, Piatra Craiului, Parâng Mountains. The morphology of the investigated area determines the formation of constrained avalanches. For events reconstruction, we used semi-quantitative Shored index (Shroeder, 1980). We identified 51 events in a 101-year chronology in Picea abies: 12 events with Ibetween 10-20% and 6 events with Ibetween 20-40%. The relatively young age of the trees is a good indicator of the disturbances caused by past events. We based our reconstruction on dating growth disturbances such as reaction wood, traumatic resin ducts, and scars. Reaction wood, very present in our case, highlighted the intensity of avalanche activity and the expansion of events. Resin ducts and scars are a good indicator of avalanches that brought us important information in the dating of events and helped us to delimit the affected areas (the 2005 synchronous event with other 9 couloirs). The return period values are higher than those obtained by Corona et al. (2010) in the French Alps (2.5-12 years), smaller than those obtained by Corona et al. (2007) in the Swiss Alps (slightly over 20 years) and similar to those obtained by Decaulne et al. (2012) in Northern Iceland (15-20 years). 11 events synchronous with events of another 11 couloir (1985, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2000, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2016).

In the future we want to highlight the type of avalanche by relating the activity of avalanches to cold season temperatures by using the Standardized Winter Index (IIS) (Micu, 2009; Voiculescu, Onaca, 2014) and climate scenarios, cf. Germain et al. (2009). Our study can be the basis for the elaboration of hazard and risk maps, in the perspective of tourist investments in the Tarcu Mountains or in the development of tourist activities in safe conditions.

How to cite: Feher, R., Chiroiu, P., and Voiculescu, M.: Snow avalanche activity in the Țarcu Mountains, Southern Carpathians. Comparative analysis based on tree ring studies., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8925, 2022.

EGU22-9627 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

Tree rings, wood density and climate-growth relationships of four Douglas fir provenances in sub-Mediterranean Slovenia 

Luka Krajnc, Polona Hafner, Jernej Jevšenak, Jožica Gričar, and Robert Brus

Radial growth, wood density and climate-growth relationship of four Douglas fir provenances were analysed separately for the juvenile and the adult phase. Two pairs of provenances were selected from an existing IUFRO provenance trial planted in 1971 based on their diameter at breast height and vitality. Increment cores were extracted from individual trees, on which we measured tree-ring widths (RW), earlywood widths (EWW) and latewood widths (LWW). Wood density was assessed in standing trees using resistance drilling. The climate-growth correlations were calculated between provenance chronologies of RW, EWW, LWW and latewood share, and day-wise aggregated Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We calculated the accumulated drought effects by aggregating climatic water deficits into a log-logistic probability distribution to obtain the SPEI index series of different seasons, starting from three weeks to nine months, including the effect of previous growing season. In all provenances, RW, and consequently EWW and LWW, were wider in juvenile period than in adult period. Share of latewood was in all cases higher in juvenile wood then in mature wood. All four provenances have similar wood density in both analysed growth phases. The general effect of wet conditions in current growing season was positive, indicating that Douglass fir’s radial growth was favoured in moist years, and reduced in dry years. The significant positive effect of SPEI on LW was observed also at the beginning of previous growing season. Our analysis showed that when selecting the most promising provenance for planting, it needs to be considered that growth rate may change from juvenile to adult period. Only by combining climate-growth analysis with measurements of external tree features we can compare and assess the suitability of certain provenances for planting in current and future climate.

How to cite: Krajnc, L., Hafner, P., Jevšenak, J., Gričar, J., and Brus, R.: Tree rings, wood density and climate-growth relationships of four Douglas fir provenances in sub-Mediterranean Slovenia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9627, 2022.

EGU22-10771 | Presentations | CL1.2.2

High-resolution wood surface imaging for dendrochronology: towards the development of unbiased reflected light timeseries 

Miloš Rydval, Jesper Björklund, Georg von Arx, Krešimir Begović, Martin Lexa, Juliana Nogueira, Jonathan Schurman, and Yumei Jiang

Climate change is a global-scale issue of societal, economic, and political importance and so understanding the climate of the present within the context of past climate variability is of vital importance. Dendroclimatic reconstructions play a key role in contextualizing recent climate change by improving our understanding of historical climate conditions. The climatically-sensitive blue intensity (BI) tree-ring parameter is gaining prominence as a more affordable and accessible alternative to traditional X-ray densitometry. Yet the accurate representation of low-frequency trends and high-frequency extremes using scanner-based BI remains a challenge due to color-related biases and resolution limitations. As part of the REPLICATE project, which aims to develop a set of robust multi-parameter temperature reconstructions from Carpathian Norway spruce (Picea abies) tree rings, methodological advances in sample surface preparation, imaging and measurement techniques have produced series analogous to BI from ultra-high resolution (~74 700 true dpi) images. Series from these microscope-based reflected light images of the tree-ring sample surface, termed surface intensity (SI), represent the binary (black-white) segmentation of wood anatomical structure, which approximates anatomical density. By eliminating color altogether and using a high-resolution system, the most substantial drawbacks of scanner BI (i.e., discoloration and resolution biases) are bypassed and hence climate signal optimization is achieved by more accurately representing low-frequency climatic trends and high-frequency extremes. A comparison of SI chronologies with a multi-parameter tree-ring dataset from a large-scale parameter assessment study by Björklund et al. (2019) showed that this novel SI parameter can outperform its BI couterpart in terms of common signal (interseries correlation) and climate signal strength, and that it is on par with the best-performing X-ray densitometric chronologies. However, existing programs are not currently designed to effectively capture SI measurements and so additional development of measurement software is required to unlock the full potential of this new parameter. Continued improvement of high-resolution imaging techniques will aid the attainment of unbiased long tree-ring chronologies by overcoming color biases and resolution issues, but also holds promise for the development of surface quantitative wood anatomy (sQWA) datasets from reflected light images of samples. These improvements will therefore not only lead to more accurate dendrochronological paleoclimatic records and climate reconstructions but will also find future application in a broad range of dendrochronological contexts.

How to cite: Rydval, M., Björklund, J., von Arx, G., Begović, K., Lexa, M., Nogueira, J., Schurman, J., and Jiang, Y.: High-resolution wood surface imaging for dendrochronology: towards the development of unbiased reflected light timeseries, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10771, 2022.

EGU22-318 | Presentations | CL1.2.3 | Highlight

Last Glacial Maximum to present day precipitation changes from speleothem growth rates and in climate simulations 

Janica Buehler, Carla Roesch, Nils Weitzel, Denis Scholz, Laia Comas-Bru, and Kira Rehfeld

To reliably predict future changes, it is crucial to understand the response of the climate system to past changes in radiative forcing, which are investigated using climate models as well as information extracted from paleoclimate archives such as speleothems. Hydrological changes in past, present, and future are, however, far less understood and more uncertain than changes in temperature.

Speleothems are terrestrial archives in the low to mid latitudes. Their growth rate changes are hypothesized to reflect local changes in precipitation amount, albeit the response may be non-linear and subject to karst specific processes. Full coverage of glacial-interglacial cycles and high precision dating through U/Th measurements makes them a suitable archive to assess and constrain state-dependent precipitation changes. However, speleothem inherent features, such as growth hiatuses or large and abrupt changes in growth rates, are a challenge for current age-depth modelling methods.

Here, we compare modelled precipitation amount from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), in particular time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21.000 years before present) and the Mid-Holocene (around 6.000 years before present) to growth rate changes of speleothems from the global speleothem database SISALv2. We perform case studies on a large ensemble of synthetic speleothems to systematically assess the resolution of age measurements necessary to reliably detect and model growth rate changes. These synthetic speleothems cover a large range of characteristic speleothem features observed in the SISALv2 database and are analyzed by six different age-depth modeling methods (linear regression, linear interpolation, copRa, StalAge, Bacon, and Bchron). Comparing the simulated changes with speleothems selected from SISALv2 according to these criteria can thus help to constrain past precipitation changes and subsequently confine uncertainty of future changes.

How to cite: Buehler, J., Roesch, C., Weitzel, N., Scholz, D., Comas-Bru, L., and Rehfeld, K.: Last Glacial Maximum to present day precipitation changes from speleothem growth rates and in climate simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-318, 2022.

EGU22-396 | Presentations | CL1.2.3 | Highlight

Northwest Indian stalagmite shows evidence for recurring summer and winter droughts after 4.2 ka BP 

Alena Giesche, David A. Hodell, Cameron A. Petrie, Gerald H. Haug, Jess F. Adkins, Birgit Plessen, Norbert Marwan, Harold J. Bradbury, Adam Hartland, Amanda D. French, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach

We reconstructed changes in summer and winter precipitation using a well-dated (±18 years 2σ error) speleothem spanning 4.2-3.1 ka BP from Dharamjali Cave in the central Himalaya. The record was sampled at a sub-annual resolution for a suite of trace elements, as well oxygen and carbon stable isotopes. Calcium isotopes at decadal resolution provide additional hydroclimatic evidence. This DHAR-1 stalagmite records a 230-year period of increased drought frequency in both the summer and winter seasons after 4.2 ka BP, with aridity events centered on 4.19, 4.11 and 4.02 ka BP each lasting between 25 and 90 years. The data after 3.97 ka BP support a recovery in summer monsoon rainfall, peaking around 3.7 ka BP. The significance of this new record includes remarkable coherence between the moisture proxies over 4.2-3.97 ka BP in a well-dated record, which provides confidence in the duration of droughts and timing of monsoon recovery. It also places seasonal climate variability on a timescale relevant to human decision-making, which is particularly significant for this region nearby the Indus River Basin. The Indus Civilization reached its urban apex by 4.2 ka BP, and archaeologists have documented a shift in settlement locations, population, health, and agricultural strategies thereafter for a period of several centuries. This stalagmite record provides valuable insights into seasonal precipitation availability during a critical climatic and cultural transition phase.

How to cite: Giesche, A., Hodell, D. A., Petrie, C. A., Haug, G. H., Adkins, J. F., Plessen, B., Marwan, N., Bradbury, H. J., Hartland, A., French, A. D., and Breitenbach, S. F. M.: Northwest Indian stalagmite shows evidence for recurring summer and winter droughts after 4.2 ka BP, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-396, 2022.

EGU22-477 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Spatial heterogeneity of monsoon precipitation over the Asian continent during the termination of MIS-9 

Rachana Subba, Prosenjit Ghosh, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Judson Partin, Madhusudhan G Yadava, Chuan Chou Shen, Steven C Clemens, Mahjoor Ahmad Lone, Tsai Luen Yu, Narayana Chinna Allu, and Rengaswamy Ramesh

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall which is regulated by the strength of Asian monsoon requires an observational network dispersed across the continental landmass. The operation of monsoonal circulation during the last one million years is possible to be reconstructed using the geochemical and isotopic record available from cave speleothems. The monsoonal circulation brings rain and excess precipitation due to interplay of monsoonal wind strength which is governed by the seasonal movement of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from ocean to the continent. A consensual view is that both the operation of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) are in accordance with the orbital forcing. However, the lack of terrestrial records of ISM rainfall variability over glacial interglacial time scales precludes insights into pan-Asian monsoon forcing and related mechanisms. Here, we present independent estimates of temperature change from the clumped isotope record in speleothem from Belum cave, continental India, covering glacial interglacial transition (MIS-9). The palaeo data is used in conjugation with the already reported δ¹⁸O records from Chinese caves and Mean Annual Precipitation from Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), which are influenced by the EASM, to understand the spatial variability of δ¹⁸O records and its significance in regulation of moisture transport process away from equator. A comparative study across latitudes, particularly at the peak of the interglacial period MIS 9 (after ~320 ka) brings to light the intensification of rainfall accompanied by relatively higher temperature (~35°C in Belum cave- 15.10°N) exhibited by both the ISM system and EASM System (Xiao cave 26.04°N). However, shift in δ¹⁸O record of caves above 30° N (Sanbao and Linzhu caves) is less, though the trend is similar. A recent study of CLP (36.35°N) reported a drop in mean precipitation by ~300mm post 320 ka. Such variation of the mid-latitude precipitation intensity may probably be a consequence of the combined effect of ice volume and snow cover in the Northern hemisphere and low latitude climate changes.

How to cite: Subba, R., Ghosh, P., Thirumalai, K., Partin, J., Yadava, M. G., Shen, C. C., Clemens, S. C., Lone, M. A., Yu, T. L., Allu, N. C., and Ramesh, R.: Spatial heterogeneity of monsoon precipitation over the Asian continent during the termination of MIS-9, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-477, 2022.

EGU22-506 | Presentations | CL1.2.3 | Highlight

The tip of the iceberg: U-Pb dating shows that cave systems can be twice as old as their surface expression 

Rieneke Weij, Jon Woodhead, Kale Sniderman, John Hellstrom, Elizabeth Reed, Steven Bourne, and Russell Drysdale

Caves are important fossil repositories providing records extending back over million-year timescales. While the physical processes of cave formation are well understood, a more important parameter to studies of palaeontology, palaeoanthropology and archaeology — that of the timing of initial cave development and opening — has proved more difficult to constrain. The Naracoorte Cave Complex (NCC) in southern Australia is a World Heritage site with a rich record of Pleistocene vertebrate fossils, including extinct megafauna, and serves as a natural laboratory in which to investigate these fundamental cave processes. Using U-Th-Pb dating of speleothems we show that the NCC is at least 1.32 million years old, extending the current understanding of initial speleothem formation by ~70% and the antiquity of initial cave development at this site by at least ~20%. We use charcoal and pollen trapped in the same speleothems to place robust constraints on the timing and extent of subsequent cave opening. The findings of this study provide an important means for researchers working on the plethora of fossil-rich sites worldwide to assess the potential upper limit of vertebrate fossil records within caves.

How to cite: Weij, R., Woodhead, J., Sniderman, K., Hellstrom, J., Reed, E., Bourne, S., and Drysdale, R.: The tip of the iceberg: U-Pb dating shows that cave systems can be twice as old as their surface expression, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-506, 2022.

EGU22-1057 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Investigating δ13C values in stalagmites from tropical South America 

Valdir F. Novello and Kira Rehfeld and the South American Speleothem Group

Multiple factors control δ13C values in speleothems and complicate their paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental interpretation. Therefore, most studies avoid the presentation of δ13C values, and instead, focus only on δ18O. This development can be observed with regard to most recent cave studies from tropical South America, in which stalagmite δ18O were preferentially published without the consideration of δ13C data. Here we present a large δ13C dataset of 98 speleothem records covering multiple time scales from South America, of which 42 remained unpublished or were not available until now. Our main objective is concentrating on the support of existing and emerging databases, such as SISAL, and providing new data for the speleothem community and climate modelling.

As a first approach, we review the δ13C values for the last two millennia and evaluate the environmental influencing factors on this proxy, e.g., local hydroclimate, altitude, temperature, and abundant vegetation types. Our results indicate that the main factors controlling variations in δ13C values are due to changes in the local hydroclimate and, to a minor extent, in temperature. For this time period, most of the isotope records show a significant correlation between the δ13C and δ18O values, indicating a close relationship between local hydroclimate and large-scale atmospheric processes related to shifts of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). Furthermore, in most of the karst systems studied here, the predominant occurrence of C3 plants growing on soils above the caves is responsible for a considerable lowering of δ13C values (≤6‰) in most of the speleothems.

How to cite: Novello, V. F. and Rehfeld, K. and the South American Speleothem Group: Investigating δ13C values in stalagmites from tropical South America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1057, 2022.

EGU22-1576 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

SISAL speleothem database updates - link to modern monitoring data, additional proxies and increased accessibility 

Nikita Kaushal, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Peter Tanos, Istvan Gabor Hatvani, Zoltan Kern, Micah Wilhelm, Yuval Burstyn, and Andy Baker

Speleothem archives (cave carbonates) are widely distributed in terrestrial regions, and provide highly resolved records of past changes in climate and vegetation encoded in the oxygen and carbon isotope proxies. The SISALv2 database, created by the PAGES-SISAL Phase 1 Working Group, provided 700 speleothem records from 293 cave sites, 500 of which have standardized chronologies. The database provides access to records that were hitherto unavailable in the original publications and/or repositories, and has enabled regional-to-global scale analysis of climatic patterns using a variety of approaches such as data-model comparisons. 

The PAGES-SISAL Phase 2 Working Group is a continuation of the previous efforts to index speleothem datasets, focusing on the following objectives: (i) exploring ways to synthesise modern cave monitoring data to provide robust modern baselines and improve proxy interpretations, (ii) adding trace element proxies of Mg, Sr, Ba, U, and Sr isotopes to the SISAL database to increase our understanding of regional climatic variability, (iii) a database-update to incorporate ~100 identified speleothem datasets that are currently not in the database, (iv) providing a javascript web app with a user-friendly GUI to increase SISAL data accessibility.

Here, we present preliminary information on available cave monitoring metadata synthesized from the Cave Monitoring Database (product of a Cave Monitoring workshop in Innsbruck, Austria) and published speleothem trace element records, highlighting regions where overlapping stable isotope, trace element and monitoring datasets are available, and identifying gaps. We show the proposed database structures for cave monitoring and speleothem trace element data, linking them to the speleothem entities in the existing SISAL database with persistent identifiers, and introduce the Beta version of the SISAL GUI. We briefly present a synopsis of the SISAL-community level discussions on best practices for reporting trace element data, and reducing data measured with high resolution laser ablation methods. 

We welcome feedback on PAGES-SISAL Phase 2 activities listed above, and encourage participation and collaboration from interested researchers in different stages of their academic career and working in different geographical regions and allied disciplines.

How to cite: Kaushal, N., Lechleitner, F. A., Tanos, P., Hatvani, I. G., Kern, Z., Wilhelm, M., Burstyn, Y., and Baker, A.: SISAL speleothem database updates - link to modern monitoring data, additional proxies and increased accessibility, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1576, 2022.

EGU22-2048 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

The peculiar nature of thermal diffusion coefficients in karst terrains and their control on cave temperatures 

David Domínguez-Villar, Kristina Krklec, and Francisco J. Sierro

Temperature in the inner section of most caves (i.e., away from well ventilated entrance sections) is controlled by external air temperature transferred underground by heat conduction. The key parameter that controls heat conduction is the thermal diffusion coefficient, that is specific for different materials. Although thermal diffusion coefficients can be calculated for specific carbonate rocks, the underground karst is not composed exclusively of bedrock since dissolution creates large pores and conduits filled with air and water that greatly impact thermal diffusion coefficients.  

We studied a 5-year temperature record of the entrance of Los Pilones Cave, in central Spain. The cave entrance is a sub-horizontal and meandering crawlway that limits the advection even in winter, making this cave ideal to study thermal conduction processes. Cave temperature was recorded along the 30 m section from the entrance by 10 TINITAG thermistors and external temperature was measured at ground and 2 m elevation levels. The thickness of bedrock cover above the cave was measured with a DISTO2 laser meter equipped with compass and clinometer providing uncertainties <0.05m.

The bedrock cover above the ceiling of the cave ranges from 8 to 15 m and all cave temperature records show annual thermal oscillations with different amplitudes and lag times in relation to the external annual thermal cycles. Cave temperature measurements support that heat conduction is the main heat transfer mechanism controlling cave temperature variability. Thermometers located under a thicker bedrock cover record less thermal amplitude of the annual signal and enhanced delays. The thermal diffusion coefficient was calculated from averaging the results from the thermal anomaly recorded at different depths and the lag time recorded at different depths. The dispersion of regression analyses (r2>0.9) is large compared to analyses performed on non-karst bedrocks, supporting the existence of local heterogeneities in the underground karst. We also noticed that the lag times of individual loggers changed during the studied period (interannual variability), which can be attributed to variable ratios of water saturation in the local porosity. Therefore, when reporting the thermal diffusion coefficient of karst terrains, their triphasic nature (i.e., rock, water and air) should be considered. So, the average thermal diffusion coefficient of a specific cave could vary in space or time beyond calculated uncertainties depending variable hydrological conditions.

Acknowledgements:

The project leading to this research has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No.101030314.

How to cite: Domínguez-Villar, D., Krklec, K., and Sierro, F. J.: The peculiar nature of thermal diffusion coefficients in karst terrains and their control on cave temperatures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2048, 2022.

EGU22-3100 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Paleoclimatic evolutions during the Holocene: A stalagmite δ18O record from Majiaping Cave, Guizhou, China 

Ming-Qiang Liang, Hong-Chun Li, Horng-Sheng Mii, Zhi-Bang Ma, Ting-Yong Li, and Ludvig Löwemark

Speleothemoxygen isotope records from East Asia have been utilized to reconstruct Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotope variation represents on orbital to annual timescales remains greatly debated. The high-resolution speleothem records combined with modern meteorological observation are essential for better understanding this debate. Here, we report a stalagmite δ18O (δ18Oc) record of the highest resolution (average of ~1-yr) between 1730 to 8590 yr BP from Majiaping (MJP) Cave, Guizhou Province, southwest China. This record is precisely dated based on the 14C dating method combined with 230Th/U, 210Pb, and lamination counting dating methods. The result shows that the 14C dating method can establish a reliable chronology for stalagmites that cannot be dated by 230Th/U. The comparisons of the precipitation δ18O with the local temperature, rainfall amount, and moisture sources show that the δ18Oc record from southwest China is mainly controlled by the “amount effect” on annual to decadal timescale modified by ENSO. The consistent long-term δ18Oc trends among all monsoonal regions in the low latitudes of the northern hemisphere indicate that on the orbital timescale the δ18Oc trend reflects changes in the large-scale spatial circulation of the atmosphere, which is controlled by the changes of northern hemisphere summer insolation. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Bernaola-Galvan Segmentation Algorithm (BGSA) analyses reveal that on the semi-millennium timescale, the δ18Oc record of the MJP stalagmite shows 8 weak East Asian summer monsoon events during 8.2ka BP, 7.3 ka BP, 5.9 ka BP, 5.5 ka BP, 4.2 ka BP, 3.1 ka BP, 2.4 ka BP and 1.9 ka BP. The comparisons of the structural feature and forcing factor of the first 7 events with the 1.9 ka event indicate that the first 7 events correspond to the changes in total solar irradiance and the 1.9 ka event may be related to the internal forcing of the Earth system controlled by the ENSO. On the interannual-multidecadal timescale, the δ18Oc record shows the high-frequency cyclicities of 3~7-yr and 30~70-yr which are related to ENSO and PDO according to modern instrumental records. However, the relationships among ENSO, PDO, and the δ18Oc are not constant during the Holocene.

How to cite: Liang, M.-Q., Li, H.-C., Mii, H.-S., Ma, Z.-B., Li, T.-Y., and Löwemark, L.: Paleoclimatic evolutions during the Holocene: A stalagmite δ18O record from Majiaping Cave, Guizhou, China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3100, 2022.

EGU22-3106 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Palaeo-environmental and palaeo-climatic significance of Tunisian calcretes 

Farah Jarraya, Barbara Mauz, Mike Rogerson, Noureddine Elmejdoub, Abdeljalil Sghari, and Nejib Kallel

Continental carbonates constitute an interesting topic of study since they are important archives recording climate and paleoenvironmental changes. In Tunisia, calcretes are formed during the Pliocene-early Pleistocene (Villafranchian). They mainly occur in the center and on the coastal plain of Djeffara (Southern East) while their presence is more sporadic in the North of the country. Continental carbonates may form in the soil, groundwater, and palustrine and lacustrine environments. Four criteria are used to differentiate these different environments: host rock, components and micromorphological texture, subaerial exposure (seasonality), and flora and fauna.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the palaeoenvironmental significance of Tunisian calcretes for the Plio-Pleistocene. For this aim, well-developed carbonate beds were studied along a north-south transect that crosses the climatic boundaries between the latitudes 33 ° and 37 ° N: North (N36º.43.713 E10º.06.681’) Center (N35º.07.077 'E10º. 14.545 ') and South (N33º.28.898' E10º.20.597 ').

Based on the macroscopic, petrographic, and cathodoluminescence observations in association with scanning electron microscopy results, we classified thin sections extracted from the massive horizons in all sites into 8 facies types:

The Northern site is characterized by 1) pisolithic calcretes and 2) laminar calcretes showing several beta microfabrics such as rhizolith, peloids, intraclasts, coated grains, bioclast debris, cracks, alveolar septal, spherulite, and organic matter. Moreover, 3) pseudo microkarst carbonates were detected in Northern Tunisia by the presence of vertical layers, peloids, intraclasts, circum crack grain, pedotubules, and rhizoconcretions, and bioclasts.

At the central site, 4) laminar calcretes are characterized by planar layers. Both 5) massive brecciated calcretes and 6) mottled nodular brecciated calcretes are distinguished by the abundance of cracks. All these facies types’ shows similar pedogenic components such as peloids, coated grains, gastropod shell, alveolar septal, ooids, and bioclasts.

The southern site is characterized on the one hand by 7) laminar calcretes composed of peloids, nodules, coated grains, cracks, and on the other hand by 8) groundwater nodules showing a massive aspect with alpha microfabrics. In all sites, the nodular horizons are pedogenic.

Thus, our Plio-early Pleistocene calcretes formed in three main depositional environments: pedogenic, groundwater, and palustrine. The groundwater calcretes are formed under phreatic conditions while the Tunisian pedogenic calcretes and palustrine carbonates exhibit subaerial exposure characteristics (cracks). Except for southern groundwater calcretes, all other types of carbonates show biogenic traces. The palustrine carbonates developed above lacustrine mud. Whereas, pedogenic and groundwater calcretes, develop on different types of host rocks (siliceous and clayey). The difference between fabrics indicates that during the Pliocene-early Pleistocene calcrete form in the north in palustrine settings while it forms in groundwater context in the south. Furthermore, the transition between the different environments is controlled mainly by variation in the water table suggesting a variable but generally more humid climate during the Plio-Pleistocene in North Africa.

How to cite: Jarraya, F., Mauz, B., Rogerson, M., Elmejdoub, N., Sghari, A., and Kallel, N.: Palaeo-environmental and palaeo-climatic significance of Tunisian calcretes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3106, 2022.

EGU22-3454 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Radiocarbon and stable C isotope variability of two Holocene stalagmites from the high-alpine Spannagel Cave 

Caroline Welte, Jens Fohlmeister, Melina Wertnik, Timothy Ian Eglinton, and Christoph Spötl

Stable carbon (C) isotope records from stalagmites are readily available as they are often measured alongside stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O). Their interpretation, however, remains challenging due to several processes contributing to changes in the C-isotope ratio (e.g., fractionation, mixing). Spatially resolved radiocarbon (14C) data can help to interpret 13C signatures [1] but are rarely available due to expensive and time-consuming analysis. Rapid and continuous analysis of 14C concentration in carbonate samples at spatial resolution down to 100 μm has been recently made possible with the new LAAMS (laser ablation accelerator mass spectrometry) technique [2].

This novel technique has previously been applied to a Holocene stalagmite (SPA 127) from the high-alpine Spannagel Cave, Austria. Combined δ13C and 14C profiles (expressed as dead carbon fraction, dcf) allowed to hypothesize on the interplay of regional climate and contribution of an old organic C reservoir to stalagmite growth [3]. Here, we present LA-AMS results from a second Holocene stalagmite from Spannagel Cave (SPA 128). This stalagmite grew at a location close to that of SPA 127 with overlapping growth periods and consistent δ18O signals [4]. Both stalagmites show large and fast variations in the dcf and δ13C. SPA 128 has a generally higher dcf (with values above 60%) and a more negative δ13C signal that point towards contribution of an old organic C reservoir to the stalagmite C.

 

 

[1]D. Rudzka et al., (2011), GCA 75, 4321-4339.

[2] C. Welte, et al., (2016), Anal. Chem. 88, 8570– 8576.

[3] C. Welte et al., (2021), Clim. Past 17, 2165–2177.

[4] J. Fohlmeister et al., (2013), The Holocene 23, 749-754.

 

 

How to cite: Welte, C., Fohlmeister, J., Wertnik, M., Eglinton, T. I., and Spötl, C.: Radiocarbon and stable C isotope variability of two Holocene stalagmites from the high-alpine Spannagel Cave, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3454, 2022.

EGU22-3565 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Variations and Significance of Mg/Sr and 87Sr/86Sr of drip water and active speleothem in Furong Cave, Southwest China 

Junyun Li, Ting-Yong Li, Chuan-Chou Shen, Tsai-Luen Yu, Tao-Tao Zhang, Yao Wu, Jing-Li Zhou, Chao-Jun Chen, and Jian Zhang

Cave monitoring is an important method to investigate the deposition mechanism and factor influencing the trace elements in drip water and speleothemsThe Mg and Sr concentrations and the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios and 87Sr/86Sr in drip water and speleothems are often used to explore climate and environmental changes.Systematic monitoring was performed on the Mg and Sr contents, Mg/Sr ratio and 87Sr/86Sr of soil, soil water, cave drip water, and the active speleothems (AS) in Furong Cave in Chongqing, southwest China, during 2009–2018 (A.D). The results were interpreted in conjunction with the changes in the 87Sr/86Sr ratios to explore the main sources and controlling factors of Sr and other trace elements in drip water. (1) Mg and Sr concentrations and 87Sr/86Sr ratios in soil water were increased which was related to the prolonged residence time of water in the soil in winter and spring because of less rainfall. It indicates that the trace element contents of soil water reflect seasonal changes of the rainfall. (2) The Mg and Sr contents were higher in drip water than in soil water, as well as the 87Sr/86Sr ratios of drip water was closer to that of the bedrock, which indicates that the overlying bedrock was the main source of the trace elements in drip water and the speleothems in Furong Cave. (3) Mg contents and Mg/Sr ratios in drip water and AS showed decreasing trend corresponding to the increasing annual rainfall in the monitoring period which resulted in the shorter water-rock contact time. (4) The growth rate of AS may be an important factor to control the Sr contents in AS because of the similar increasing trend. (5) The Mg and Sr contents and the Mg/Sr ratios of drip water and AS did not exhibit seasonal variations due to the mixing of the fissure water and complex hydrology condition of the overlying bedrock, however, the geochemical indexes (Mg and Mg/Sr ratio) showed an opposite trend to the annual rainfall variation. This study suggests that the variations of Mg, Sr and Mg/Sr ratios of drip water and AS can response to the rainfall on the multi-year timescale, which contributes critical insights into the paleoclimate interpretation of proxies of speleothems in the cave with hundreds of meters thick bedrock. 

How to cite: Li, J., Li, T.-Y., Shen, C.-C., Yu, T.-L., Zhang, T.-T., Wu, Y., Zhou, J.-L., Chen, C.-J., and Zhang, J.: Variations and Significance of Mg/Sr and 87Sr/86Sr of drip water and active speleothem in Furong Cave, Southwest China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3565, 2022.

EGU22-3953 | Presentations | CL1.2.3 | Highlight

The timing, duration and magnitude of the 8.2 ka event in global speleothem records 

Sarah Parker and Sandy P. Harrison

Abrupt events punctuate the climate of the Holocene epoch, providing valuable insight into rapid climate change. The most notable abrupt event of the Holocene was the 8.2 ka event, when a large influx of meltwater into the North Atlantic reduced northward heat transport in this region. The event provides valuable insight into the global climate response to North Atlantic freshening. Here, we examine the timing, duration and magnitude of the climate response using a global network of speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records.

Firstly, we objectively identified abrupt climate events in 402 globally distributed speleothem records from the SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis) database (Atsawawaranunt et al., 2018; Comas-Bru et al., 2020) during the Holocene. Secondly, we examined the timing, duration and anomalies of the 8.2 ka δ18O excursions using 70 speleothem δ18O records.

We show that the 8.2 ka event is the most globally coherent and significant abrupt event of the last 12,000 years, with an abrupt δ18O excursion identified in >70% of speleothem records. The δ18O anomalies are regionally homogeneous; they are negative across Europe and the Mediterranean, positive across Asia, and negative in South America and southern Africa. The excursion is not registered in the Indonesia/Australia region. The median timing of the event from the speleothem records is 8223 ±12 to 8062 ±14 years BP, indistinguishable from the timing in Greenland ice cores of 8247 to 8086 ± 47 years BP (Thomas et al., 2007). The median duration of the 8.2 ka event excursion in speleothems is 159 ±11 years, indistinguishable from the duration in Greenland of 160.5 ± 5.5 years (Thomas et al., 2007). There is no significant difference between the timing and duration in regions both near (Europe) and far (Asia) from the North Atlantic. This globally synchronous timing and duration supports a rapid and widespread climate response, likely via rapid atmospheric teleconnections.

 

Atsawawaranunt, K., et al., 2018. The SISAL database: a global resource to document oxygen and carbon isotope records from speleothems. Earth System Science Data, 10(3), pp.1687-1713.

Comas-Bru, L., et al., 2020. SISALv2: a comprehensive speleothem isotope database with multiple age–depth models. Earth System Science Data, 12(4), pp.2579-2606.

Thomas, E.R., Wolff, E.W., Mulvaney, R., Steffensen, J.P., Johnsen, S.J., Arrowsmith, C., White, J.W., Vaughn, B. and Popp, T., 2007. The 8.2 ka event from Greenland ice cores. Quaternary Science Reviews, 26(1-2), pp.70-81.

How to cite: Parker, S. and Harrison, S. P.: The timing, duration and magnitude of the 8.2 ka event in global speleothem records, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3953, 2022.

EGU22-4066 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

High Resolution Monitoring of Organic Matter at Milandre Cave, Switzerland. Implications for Future Paleoecosystem Proxies. 

Sarah Rowan, Marc Luetscher, Sönke Szidat, and Franziska A. Lechleitner

Terrestrial ecosystems, including soil and the biosphere, represent important reservoirs of carbon sources and cycling (IPCC, 2000). However, the reaction of terrestrial ecosystems to the changing climate remains poorly constrained. Over the past 20 years, interest in the organic matter (OM) fraction of speleothems, typically comprising 0.01-0.3% of the total carbon (Blyth et al., 2016), has increased due to its potential to offer information about past ecosystems. The sources of speleothem OM are not fully understood and are likely to be a combination of contributions from overlying vegetation, soil, microbial activity within the karst system, and cave fauna. Due to the link that the inner cave environment has with the karst, the signal of non purgeable organic carbon (NPOC) sourced from the overlying soil, vadose zone, or within the cave itself may be preserved within speleothems (Blyth et al., 2013). Hence, the isotopic characterisation (𝛿13C and 14C) of stalagmite NPOC has the potential to give information about past ecological and climactic state of the surrounding region (Blyth et al., 2013).

Presented here are the first results of a high-resolution process study of organic and inorganic carbon fluxes in the Milandre cave (Switzerland), whereby the main carbon source reservoirs will be monitored for two years. The total organic carbon content of cave waters ranges from 0.6 -1.3mg/L. The 𝛿13C of CO2 in gas samples from atmospheric air (-9.24 ‰), soil air (-12.68 - -27.20‰), gas well air (-24.97- -25.78‰), and cave air (-14.29 - -25.32‰) were analysed. The soil air, well air and cave air have 𝛿13C values which range from close to atmospheric 𝛿13C to the most 𝛿13C depleted cave air end member which suggests differing levels of gas mixing throughout the system. Ultimately, this information will be used to constrain the source of speleothem NPOC and allow the assessment of its suitability as a proxy for ecosystem change.   

 

Blyth, A., Hartland, A. and Baker, A., 2016. Organic proxies in speleothems – New developments, advantages and limitations. Quaternary Science Reviews, 149, pp.1-17.

Blyth, A., Smith, C., and Drysdale, R., 2013. A new perspective on the 13C signal preserved in speleothems using LC-IRMS analysis of bulk organic matter and compound specific stable isotope analysis. Quaternary Science Reviews, 75, pp. 143-149.

IPCC, 2000: Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry. (R.Watson, I.Noble, B Bolin, N.H. Ravindranath,D.J. Verardo and D.J. Dokken (eds.)).  Cambridge University Press, UK, pp.375

 

How to cite: Rowan, S., Luetscher, M., Szidat, S., and Lechleitner, F. A.: High Resolution Monitoring of Organic Matter at Milandre Cave, Switzerland. Implications for Future Paleoecosystem Proxies., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4066, 2022.

EGU22-4293 | Presentations | CL1.2.3 | Highlight

Permafrost Evolution on the British Isles during the Last Deglaciation. 

Paul Toechterle, R. Lawrence Edwards, John Gunn, Tim Atkinson, Julian B. Murton, Marc Luetscher, and Gina E. Moseley

Globally, near-surface permafrost is likely to warm, thin or disappear in many areas subject to future climate warming and wetting, creating a positive atmospheric feedback where the permafrost is rich in carbon. Unfortunately, substantial uncertainty exists as to the extent and timing of thawing in response to atmospheric forcing. Cryogenic cave carbonates (CCCs),  a recently described type of speleothem, precipitate when cave ice forms and thus provide opportunities to constrain periods when permafrost was present at a given cave site. Here, we present a unique dataset comprising 38 230Th/U ages of CCCs from two caves in the Mendips, southwest England (51°N), and two caves in the Peak District, central England (53°N), all of which are currently ice-free. Whilst many ages are clean, reliable and high precision, the accuracy of those containing initial 230This improved greatly by constructing isochrons and applying further statistical methods.

The ages of CCCs reveal two distinct periods of isothermal permafrost conditions, peaking during i) the early Bølling–Allerød interstadial at approximately 14,463 ± 145 yBP* and ii) the late Younger Dryas around 11,719 ± 229 yBP. Such isothermal conditions (i.e., where values of mean annual ground temperature are commonly a fraction of a degree below 0°C and exist through much of the depth profile of permafrost) are thought to represent the later stages of permafrost warming prior to its disappearance. We attribute this isothermal, disequilibrium permafrost evolution during the last deglaciation of the British–Irish Ice Sheet to climatic variations linked to North Atlantic sea-ice extent and seasonality.

*years before 1950

How to cite: Toechterle, P., Edwards, R. L., Gunn, J., Atkinson, T., Murton, J. B., Luetscher, M., and Moseley, G. E.: Permafrost Evolution on the British Isles during the Last Deglaciation., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4293, 2022.

EGU22-4294 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Multi-proxy speleothem records attest to Central-Eastern Europe hydro-climate variability during MIS 3, the LGM, and the Holocene 

Sophie F. Warken, Dana F.C. Riechelmann, Jens Fohlmeister, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Christoph Spötl, Klaus P. Jochum, Denis Scholz, Silviu Constantin, and Norbert Frank

Speleothems from well-monitored Cloşani Cave (Romania), have provided excellent records of past rainfall amount and European winter hydro-climate variability (Warken et al., 2018). Here we present new data allowing to extend the precipitation history of Central-Eastern Europe back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as MIS 3. High-precision 230Th/U ages show that the two analysed speleothems (C09-1 and C09-2) grew nearly continuously during the past 20 ka, with only one growth interruption between c. 11 and 9.7 ka BP. In addition, C09-2 also covers the Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) Stadials/Interstadials 16 to 14 between 60 and 52 ka BP. Consistently with previous results, the speleothem proxies (δ18O and δ13C values, as well as laser ablation ICPMS trace element profiles) provide a comprehensive picture of local and regional hydro-climate variability on centennial to glacial/interglacial timescales.

Over the course of the record, all proxies reveal millennial-scale features associated with prominent transitions during MIS 3, i.e., D/O events 16 to 14, as well as during the deglaciation, i.e., the Bølling-Allerød (BA) and Younger Dryas (YD). Local wetness as indicated by Mg/Ca ratios exhibits large variability, including pronounced swings between dry conditions during MIS 3 interstadials, and wetter conditions during stadials. After speleothem growth re-initiated at 20 ka BP, Mg/Ca ratios indicate a progressive drying until 15 ka BP, followed by an interval with enhanced variability from the Late Glacial to the Early Holocene. During the subsequent mid to late Holocene, from 8 ka BP to present, the local hydroclimate was characterized by relatively stable conditions. This dataset thus provides new insights into Central-Eastern European precipitation variability, and possibly also into its linkages to the North Atlantic realm.

References:

Warken, S.F., Fohlmeister, J., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., Constantin, S., Spötl, C., Gerdes, A., Esper, J., Frank, N., Arps, J., Terente, M., Riechelmann, D.F.C., Mangini, A., Scholz, D., (2018). Reconstruction of late Holocene autumn/winter precipitation variability in SW Romania from a high-resolution speleothem trace element record. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 499, 122-133. DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2018.07.027

How to cite: Warken, S. F., Riechelmann, D. F. C., Fohlmeister, J., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., Spötl, C., Jochum, K. P., Scholz, D., Constantin, S., and Frank, N.: Multi-proxy speleothem records attest to Central-Eastern Europe hydro-climate variability during MIS 3, the LGM, and the Holocene, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4294, 2022.

EGU22-4401 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Using Earth system model output to simulate DCF variability in speleothems: Implications for atmospheric 14C calibration 

Alexander Hubig, Steffen Therre, Thomas Kleinen, and Norbert Frank

Speleothems have become a cornerstone in atmospheric 14C reconstruction. In particular, the part of the IntCal20 calibration curve before 34 ka BP (Reimer et al., 2020) heavily relies on a set of speleothems from Hulu Cave in China (Cheng et al., 2018). The interpretation of speleothem 14C archives, however, is often exacerbated by the so-called dead carbon fraction (DCF) in speleothem carbonate. It quantifies the percentage of old, 14C-free carbon from dissolved bedrock carbonate or aged soil organic matter, and is controlled by various parameters. Modelling efforts to disentangle these parameters have already been made by previous studies.

Here, we present forward-modelled DCF time series obtained by coupling CaveCalc, a numerical model for speleothem chemistry and isotopes (Owen et al., 2018), with IntCal20 and results from paleoclimate modelling. To compare our coupled model with an extensive DCF measurement record from Sofular Cave in Northern Turkey, we convert time-dependent soil respiration output from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) to soil pCO2 via a simplistic soil respiration model and use it as input for CaveCalc. The resulting forward-modelled DCF is in very good agreement with the long-term trends of the measurement record and demonstrates that soil respiration has been the main driver of DCF variability in the Last Glacial Maximum and the Early Holocene at Sofular Cave.

Further, we show that, holding soil respiration and all other climate parameters constant, adding only 10 % of 1000 year old carbon to the soil CO2 can cause variations of up to 200 years in the DCF. This finding suggests that the DCF variability of only 50 years, which is assumed for Hulu Cave by Reimer et al. (2020), might be significantly higher, and underlines the importance of including additional records, like the one from Sofular Cave, to the next generation of calibration curves.

 

References:

Reimer, P. J., Austin, W. E. N., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., et al.: The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0–55 cal kBP), Radiocarbon, 62(4), 725-757, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.41, 2020.

Cheng, H., Lawrence Edwards, R., Southon, J., et al.: Atmospheric 14C/12C changes during the last glacial period from Hulu Cave, Science, 362(6420), 1293–1297, doi:10.1126/science.aau0747, 2018.

Owen, R., Day, C. C., and Henderson, G. M.: CaveCalc: A new model for speleothem chemistry & isotopes, Computers & Geosciences, 119, 115–122, doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2018.06.011, 2018.

How to cite: Hubig, A., Therre, S., Kleinen, T., and Frank, N.: Using Earth system model output to simulate DCF variability in speleothems: Implications for atmospheric 14C calibration, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4401, 2022.

EGU22-4875 | Presentations | CL1.2.3 | Highlight

Disentangling climate-dependent stalagmite proxies using radiocarbon timeseries 

Steffen Therre, Jens Fohlmeister, Sophie F. Warken, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Ronny Friedrich, and Norbert Frank

The transport and incorporation mechanisms of radiocarbon (14C), stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) and trace metal ratios into speleothems have been investigated intensively in the past. This provides a crucial understanding for the detection of climate and ecosystem signals (precipitation, vegetation variability) or even changes in atmospheric composition like radionuclide concentration. The Dead Carbon Fraction (DCF) in tropical settings often revealed a positive correlation with hydrological proxies, highlighting its relation with the amount of soil water infiltration. In contrast, more arid regions can have dominant aged stocks of soil organic matter (SOM) diluting the 14C concentration of the soil CO2, which is responsible for an enhanced decoupling between speleothem DCF and hydrological proxies.

Here, we present a compilation of several new and published stalagmite 14C records in context with the predominant climatic parameters controlling their carbon signature. The records cover humid, tropical climates in Puerto Rico, temperate settings in Northern Turkey, as well as semi-arid alpine caves, and arid locations on the Arabian Peninsula. The range of mean DCF values is extreme, from below 10 to more than 60 % with δ13C values between -10 and 0 ‰. Climate-controlled mechanisms like the sensitivity of vegetation to net-infiltration changes are revealed, especially for more arid regions where aged SOM significantly contributes to stalagmite geochemistry.

In a first application, we revisit a published multi-proxy glacial record of a stalagmite from Socotra Island, which allows us to disentangle the increasing soil infiltration towards Termination I and the resulting long-term DCF trends. This is achieved by exploiting the correlation of a humidity proxy (Mg/Ca) with DCF and implementing a transfer function to correct for soil carbon effects in 14C.

Our approach hints at vast opportunities to better understand the control mechanisms in stalagmite carbon signature and correct for climate-induced effects. Therefore, it can aid future research in the search for stalagmite records which trace, for instance, atmospheric nuclide signals or bear unresolved climate-related trends.

How to cite: Therre, S., Fohlmeister, J., Warken, S. F., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., Friedrich, R., and Frank, N.: Disentangling climate-dependent stalagmite proxies using radiocarbon timeseries, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4875, 2022.

EGU22-5867 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Combined 14C and 230Th/U dating of fine-grained cryogenic cave carbonates from a permafrost cave in Greenland 

Anika Donner, Paul Töchterle, Christoph Spötl, Irka Hajdas, Xianglei Li, R. Lawrence Edwards, and Gina E. Moseley

Cryogenic cave carbonates (CCC) have become a valuable tool for providing evidence for past permafrost presence, particularly in low-elevation mid-latitude temperate locations (e.g. Germany and UK) and high-elevation mid-latitude periglacial environments (e.g. Austria and Spain). This study focuses on CCC from a low-elevation high-latitude site in the continuous permafrost of the high Arctic. Specifically, the fine-grained form of cryogenic cave carbonates (CCCfine), which precipitate from rapidly freezing thin water films on top of cave ice, are investigated from Eqik Qaarusussuaq (cave) in northeast Greenland (80.2°N). Under contemporary conditions, the sampling site in the interior of the cave is dry, cold (-14.7°C) and ice-free, thus water infiltration to facilitate CCCfine formation is not possible.

Previously, 230Th/U dating efforts of CCCfine have suffered from poor age precision due to high detrital Th contamination. Similarly, 14C dating has been hindered by the unknown reservoir effect (dead carbon fraction). To address these dating issues, we applied a multi-method dating approach to produce a unique dataset comprising eleven 14C ages as well as six 230Th/U ages from a single patch of CCCfine. An isochron indicates that the CCCfine formed synchronously and that the cleanest 230Th/U age is representative for the whole patch. The dead carbon fraction is calculated based on this 230Th/U age.

The results of 230Th/U dating (97±34 a BP) agree with the calibrated 14C age range (40-70 a BP (37.9%), 115-139 a BP (28.2%), 226-254 a BP (29.4%)) that the CCCfine from Eqik Qaarusussuaq most likely formed towards the end of the Little Ice Age or shortly after.

How to cite: Donner, A., Töchterle, P., Spötl, C., Hajdas, I., Li, X., Edwards, R. L., and Moseley, G. E.: Combined 14C and 230Th/U dating of fine-grained cryogenic cave carbonates from a permafrost cave in Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5867, 2022.

EGU22-7556 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Stable and clumped isotope characterization of travertine spring mounds from Santovka and Dudince (Southern Slovakia) 

Daniella Vieira, László Rinyu, and Sándor Kele

Carbon, oxygen and clumped isotope (Δ47) values were measured from recently inactive travertine mounds located in Santovka and Dudince (Slovakia) to provide information about the origin of carbon, precipitation conditions, and paleotemperature. δ18O and δ13C analyses of carbonates were performed at the Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research (IGGR), Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences (Budapest, Hungary) and the clumped isotope analysis were performed at the Isotope Climatology and Environmental Research Center (ICER) of the Institute for Nuclear Research (Debrecen, Hungary). δ13C values show a range between +5.3‰ and +9.7‰ (V-PDB) and δ18O values (V-PDB) range between –11.2‰ and −7.5‰. These data are in accordance with the typical isotopic signature of thermogene travertines. Positive δ13C values also suggest that the thermal waters were charged with isotopically heavy CO2 of deep origin, possibly produced through metamorphic reactions, as decarbonation of carbonate rocks. Calculated δ13CCO2 values of −4.2% to −0.9‰, more positive than values of CO2 coming from the pure igneous source possibly, support this suggestion. Mineral and thermal waters in Slovakia are mainly observed in the Inner Carpathians depressions and lowland, making the most plausible carbon sources as being the Triassic limestones and dolomites, where the aquifers were formed. Clumped isotope composition (Δ47) of the inactive Santovka Mound and two inactive mounds from Dudince were measured. D47(CDES 25) values range from 0.646 ± 0.012‰ and 0.717 ± 0.010‰, corresponding to temperature estimates (T(Δ47)) that range from 17°C to 43°C using the calibration of Petersen et al. (2019) and 12°C to 33°C, using Kele et al. (2015) calibration. Calculated paleotemperatures of the paleosprings are slightly higher than the present equivalents measured directly in thermal water wells from Santovka and Dudince (14.5 °C to 26.9°C). δ18O (V-PDB) of the travertine precipitating fluid was calculated using the T(Δ47) data, giving values on the range of –11.1‰ and −5.8‰, while the δ18Owater values measured from thermal water well on Santovka and Dudince vary from –11.3‰ to 10.1‰ The observed difference in the δ18Owater values could be interpreted as the influence of the present-day precipitation (–10.4‰ to –8.7‰) on the waters on this region.

How to cite: Vieira, D., Rinyu, L., and Kele, S.: Stable and clumped isotope characterization of travertine spring mounds from Santovka and Dudince (Southern Slovakia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7556, 2022.

EGU22-7862 | Presentations | CL1.2.3 | Highlight

An ultra-high-resolution seasonal-scale stalagmite palaeoclimate record from the Yucatán peninsula, spanning the Maya Terminal Classic period. 

Daniel James, Stacy Carolin, Sebastian Breitenbach, Erin Endsley, Christina Gallup, Mark Brenner, Jason Curtis, James Rolfe, John Nicolson, and David Hodell

It has now been over 25 years since stable isotope data from lake sediment cores was first used to provide quantitative evidence of increased aridity in the Yucatán peninsula during the Maya Terminal Classic period (c.800-1000CE); a time in which Maya civilisation underwent major societal shifts and depopulations, frequently termed the Classic Maya Collapse. While palaeoclimatic evidence of reduced precipitation during the Terminal Classic from sediments and, more recently, speleothems is now plentiful, the degree of uncertainty in their chronology and proxy interpretation has precluded analysis of the precise link between decadal and sub-decadal scale drought events and the abandonment of individual Maya archaeological sites on similar timescales.

We present a sub-seasonal-resolution stable isotope record from the stalagmite Tecoh06-1, from Tzabnah Cave (near Tecoh, Yucatán), which spans 185 years of the Terminal Classic. By utilising a prior visual layer count and milling at varying resolution to yield 10-20 samples per lamina, we here record seasonal-scale annual fluctuations in both δ18O and δ13C. With each lamina confirmed to be annual, we have developed a known-duration record which can be temporally fixed by conventional U/Th dating, greatly reducing the associated degree of chronological uncertainty. This is the first local palaeoclimate dataset to record seasonality through the Terminal Classic, and additionally it replicates a lower-resolution record from the same cave, published by Medina-Elizalde et al. (2010), to a satisfactory degree over the sampled period.

Using this palaeoseasonal record we can now reliably characterise the multiple decadal-scale intervals wherein precipitation remained low year-round. These intervals would have likely been those with the most significant detrimental impact on Maya agriculture and society. 

How to cite: James, D., Carolin, S., Breitenbach, S., Endsley, E., Gallup, C., Brenner, M., Curtis, J., Rolfe, J., Nicolson, J., and Hodell, D.: An ultra-high-resolution seasonal-scale stalagmite palaeoclimate record from the Yucatán peninsula, spanning the Maya Terminal Classic period., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7862, 2022.

EGU22-8035 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

New insights from fluorescent organic matter in natural cave systems and active speleothems: a one-year monitoring study from Northwestern Spain 

Laura Endres, Céline Jacquin, Jacqueline Traber, Saul Gonzàlez-Lemos, Laura Rodriquez-Rodriquez, Jakub Sliwinski, Nikita Kaushal, Oliver Kost, and Heather M. Stoll

The interpretation of paleoclimate records from speleothems remains a challenging task due to the individual characteristics of each specimen and cave system. Through recent advances in techniques like confocal microscopy and high-resolution geochemical analysis, fluorescent layers in speleothems have become a significant source of information to enhance paleo-seasonal reconstructions, improve age models and, consequently, constrain rates of past climate changes. In this framework, speleothem fluorescence originates from organic matter produced in the soil above the cave, from ancient organic compounds in the bedrock or from microbial processes within the karst. However, the mechanisms leading to the incorporation of fluorescent banding into calcite as well as the properties of transport, storage and decomposition of organic matter in natural karst systems are still under debate. We present results from a one-year monitoring study of fluorescence properties in drip water, sampled from May 2020 to May 2021 in a quasi-monthly resolution at 3-6 locations within the cave system La Vallina in Northwestern Spain. We have measured absorbance spectra and fluorescence exitation-emission matrices; and compare it to drip water geochemistry, fluorescence of active speleothems at the same site and vegetation type above the cave. Our results indicate high gradients of fluorescent properties in drip waters already on a small spatial scale. In the site where active speleothems show fluorescent banding, a humic-like fluorescent signal prevails in cave waters (AC peak, according to Coble nomenclature), while other sites are more likely to be influenced by microbial activity (B/M peak). Humic-like fluorescence is stronger in drip waters during the autumn season, probably due to the increased input by colloids. Yet, simple relationships between the fluorescence in drip water and colloid-associated trace elements like Cu and Y cannot be confirmed. Further, the difference in drip water fluorescence is small compared to the actual intra-seasonal difference retrieved by confocal microscopy in active stalagmites. Therefore, we find drip water composition unlikely to be solely responsible for seasonal enriched fluorescence incorporation in speleothems and favour conceptual models taking moisture-limitation and adsorption into account.

How to cite: Endres, L., Jacquin, C., Traber, J., Gonzàlez-Lemos, S., Rodriquez-Rodriquez, L., Sliwinski, J., Kaushal, N., Kost, O., and Stoll, H. M.: New insights from fluorescent organic matter in natural cave systems and active speleothems: a one-year monitoring study from Northwestern Spain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8035, 2022.

EGU22-8103 | Presentations | CL1.2.3 | Highlight

The good, the bad and the ugly: 20 years of U-series dating carbonates from South Africa. 

Robyn Pickering, John Engel, and Tara Edwards

South Africa has an extraordinary record of human evolution spanning the last ~3 million years, from the fossil remains of our early pre-human relatives in the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage site, through to more recent evidence for the emergence of modern humans. Common to almost all these sites are the presence of carbonate deposits, be they caves, rock shelters or open-air sites. Knowing how old the sites are, understanding the depositional environment and the potential to use the carbonates as records of past hydroclimate variability has motivated many years of research into them. While U-Th dating is a precise, robust, and very useful chronometer in human evolution, the biggest breakthroughs in the last decade have come from U-Pb dating. However, aspects of this chronometer remain a challenging analytical exercise, more-so as the technique becomes routinely applied to carbonates with less-than-ideal U/Pb ratios.

Here we present insights into both the U and Pb concentrations, distributions, and isotope ratios, from a relatively large U-Pb dataset ranging from ~3 Ma to just under 1 Ma. We divide the U-Pb ages into three categories defined by the % error on the U–Pb age (the good, the bad and the ugly), and use thin section petrography and laser ablation trace element transects through the flowstones to investigate the factors controlling the quality of the ages. Our data confirms the expected negative exponential relationship between U–Pb age and 234U/238U. There is no apparent relationship between U concentration and residual 234U/238U, suggesting U concentration patterns are controlled by 238U, not 234U. We show that variability in the amount of inherited Pb across the sampling layer (average variability of 63% relative to sample average) – not uranium (23% variability) or by extension radiogenic Pb – is a main factor controlling the resulting isochron’s quality.

The thin section petrography reveals all flowstones have undergone heavy diagenesis, the dominant fabric consisting of mosaic calcite with relic aragonite. However, we argue that the trace element signals, the abrupt, sympathetic step-like variation is Sr, U and in some cases Ba and Mg, indicate that this diagenesis is conservative. We do show what a completely recrystallized flowstone looks like, where the original trace element signals are completely obliterated, and it is impossible to resolve a U–Pb age. We identify a mixture of crystal and fluid dominated patterns, both of which are ultimately related to flow dynamics, in turn related to changes in external hydroclimate.

We look forward to future development in in situ laser ablation U-Pb dating, which will allow for even more material to be dated. There is great potential to extract valuable palaeoclimate records out of these old, U–Pb dated flowstones, which would be very interesting given their association with important early human evolution sites in South Africa. We predict these two areas will see rapid development in the coming years.

How to cite: Pickering, R., Engel, J., and Edwards, T.: The good, the bad and the ugly: 20 years of U-series dating carbonates from South Africa., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8103, 2022.

EGU22-8933 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Does Caribbean SST drive decadal to centennial-scale variability in the Central American Monsoon? Evidence from stalagmites from Mona Island, Puerto Rico 

Claudia Cozadd, Matthew Lachniet, Sophie Warken, Hanying Li, and Amos Winter

This research is based on broader study investigating drivers of decadal to centennial-scale variations in the Central American Monsoon (CAM), a sub-region of the broader North American Monsoon. In the context of the Global Monsoon system, the precipitation patterns of CAM are of particular interest because of the placement/shifting of the ITCZ through time, its proximity to the AMOC system, and that existing precipitation records from this area have revealed a heterogenous pattern throughout the past 2 kyr.

Here we present new carbon and oxygen isotopic records of two speleothems, MO-AL-3 and MO-CU-2, recently collected from Mona Island, Puerto Rico. These speleothems together cover the last 2 kyr BP, thus significantly expanding the hydrologic history of the Northeastern Caribbean from speleothem records. Previous studies, mostly from the Western Caribbean, have revealed that Caribbean SSTs as well as solar and volcanic forcing are involved, to different degrees, as driving mechanisms determining the strength of the InterAmerican monsoon systems over the late Holocene. The study of precise, independent chronologies extracted from speleothems, and comparing them to local and regional coral/sclerosponge SST reconstructions, allows for an improved understanding of precipitation patterns of the Caribbean overtime. This new record allows the investigation of decadal to centennial-scale precipitation variability, as well as its linkage to past human civilizations. There is also potential to contribute to the recent discussion of whether the AMO is an internal oscillation or externally forced.  

How to cite: Cozadd, C., Lachniet, M., Warken, S., Li, H., and Winter, A.: Does Caribbean SST drive decadal to centennial-scale variability in the Central American Monsoon? Evidence from stalagmites from Mona Island, Puerto Rico, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8933, 2022.

EGU22-9784 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Does a real-world speleothem look like the prediction: A comprehensive study of the Sofular Cave 

Niklas Merz, Alexander Hubig, Thomas Kleinen, Georg Kaufmann, and Norbert Frank

For many years, there have been ongoing works on modelling the growth processes of stalagmites to obtain climatic information from their shape and stratigraphy. However, knowledge is still limited and it is therefore essential to improve our understanding of the underlying processes. Several studies focus on developing new algorithms to describe the equilibrium radius and the growth rate (Romanov et al., 2008) but there are only a few attempts to drive the Shape Model with time series. Kaufmann for example, focuses on the temperature as the driving force for growth variations (Kaufmann, 2003). Here, we introduce a coupling of three existing models in order to simulate the shape and growth rate of the So-1 stalagmite from the Sofular Cave in Northern Turkey. 

The presented Shape Model only needs 4 input parameters to simulate the stalagmite: cave temperature, calcium concentration of the water drop, drip rate and the CO2 concentration in the cave. To determine these values we use modelled data from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESMI1.2) and ice core data. Additionally, we use CaveCalc, a numerical model for speleothem chemistry and isotopes, to calculate the chemical reactions in the soil and karst above the cave. Through this approach we were able to simulate a stalagmite, which follows the trend of the experimental data for the growth rate, using the input parameters inside the respective error ranges. Real-world growth variations under 5 kyr are not visible. Furthermore, the effect of the individual parameters can be tested. Here, the model suggests that the radius mainly depends on the drip rate, whereas the growth rate is driven by the calcium concentration of the water drop. The model is also capable of showing some basic principles like a decrease in height as the distance to the entrance and hence CO2 concentration increases.

This new coupling opens the possibility of adjusting the data till the model corresponds better to the experimental data in order to get insights into difficult values like the drip rate. Further, it can be the start for a new inverse approach by calculating which input values correspond to the measured data while keeping some parameters fixed.

References:

Romanov, D., Kaufmann, G., and Dreybrod, W. (2008). Modeling stalagmite growth by first principles of chemistry and physics of calcite precipitation.
Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 72(2):423–437.

Kaufmann, G. (2003). Stalagmite growth and palaeo-climate: the numerical perspective. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 214(1-2):251–266

How to cite: Merz, N., Hubig, A., Kleinen, T., Kaufmann, G., and Frank, N.: Does a real-world speleothem look like the prediction: A comprehensive study of the Sofular Cave, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9784, 2022.

EGU22-11642 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Extreme sub-centennial Dead Carbon Fraction variability in a predominantly hydroclimate-driven environment 

Judith Gafriller, Steffen Therre, Nils Schorndorf, Sophie F. Warken, Frank Keppler, Ronny Friedrich, Rolf Vieten, Aaron Mielke, and Norbert Frank

Tremendous progress has been made in the research on mechanisms modulating the dead carbon fraction (DCF) in speleothems, but the causes for high spatial and temporal variability of DCF in different climate zones are still not understood. We have chosen a predominantly hydroclimate-driven environment in the tropics to assess the variability of the DCF and to attempt to reveal the key governing processes. Our high-resolution 14C record obtained from a 230Th/U-dated stalagmite from Larga Cave, Puerto Rico, covers large parts of the last glacial between 41 ka and 12 ka before present (BP), as well as the past 400 years BP in the Holocene. Moreover, hydroclimate variability is resolved through trace metal ratios (e.g. Mg/Ca) and stable oxygen and carbon isotope records 18O and δ13C).

The stable isotopes and Mg/Ca time series exhibit a relatively stable mean state indicative of a generally constant hydroclimate (wet vs. dry) and a superimposed correlated variability on the millennial scale. On the contrary, the DCF values are extremely variable on a large range, from 20% to more than 50%. The DCF data indicates that the carbon cycling switches on a sub-centennial time-scale between three apparent modes: a maximum host rock dominated level around 50%, a more soil carbon driven mode around 25%, and an intermediate state in the range of 35%. Notably, this high variability seems to be absent in the Holocene growth period. However, DCF data of another stalagmite from the same cave at a significantly more ventilated location suggest relatively stable DCF values of 15-25 % throughout the glacial period.

With our multi-tracer record from Larga Cave, Puerto Rico, we will discuss the possible dominant processes causing the oscillation between the aforementioned distinct modes of carbon cycling. The comparison to records from the same cave and other locations in the area will disentangle local karst processes and hydroclimate influences on both spatial and temporal scales.

How to cite: Gafriller, J., Therre, S., Schorndorf, N., Warken, S. F., Keppler, F., Friedrich, R., Vieten, R., Mielke, A., and Frank, N.: Extreme sub-centennial Dead Carbon Fraction variability in a predominantly hydroclimate-driven environment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11642, 2022.

EGU22-11997 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Are stromatolite morphologies and fabrics good paleoenvironmental proxies? An example from the Salta Basin (Argentina) 

Sara Tomás, Michele Vallati, Claudia Galli, and Maria Mutti

Stromatolites form by the close interaction between the microbial activity and the environment in a great range of depositional settings resulting in heterogeneous growth morphologies and fabrics. The link between morphological diversity and internal structure of stromatolites to environments is not straightforward due to the dual influence at all scales of biological and physico-chemical factors. Specifically, in low energy settings biological controls are the dominant in influencing stromatolites, as suggested from modern analogues.

In this study we examine geometries and fabrics of stromatolites from the mixed carbonate-siliciclastic marginal lacustrine succession of the Yacoraite Formation (Cretaceous-Paleogene) in Tres Cruces (Salta Basin). The outcrops that extend along a W-E transect of 10 kilometres, provide exceptional exposure allowing to analyse the geometries and lateral continuity of the stromatolite beds. Current stratigraphic research interprets the Yacoraite succession as a closed, saline lake with two evolutionary stages. The first stage, dominated by carbonate production, represents a shallow-water perennial lake with moderate wave energy. The second stage corresponds to a rapidly fluctuating, low-water energy ephemeral lake with abundant fine-grained siliciclastics and frequent subaerial events. This change is related to climatically driven lake-level fluctuations. Marked differences in the lateral continuity of the stromatolite beds and their associated facies have been observed along the Yacoraite succession. In the perennial lake, the stromatolite beds overlie oolitic facies and can be traced laterally for several kilometres whereas in the ephemeral lake the stromatolites grow on both oolitic and siliciclastic facies and form discontinuous levels along hundreds of meters that pass laterally into the oolitic facies. Stromatolite growth morphologies, however, show a more homogeneous distribution that does not clearly reflect the evolutionary changes of the Yacoraite paleolake. Generally, the stromatolites of the perennial lake exhibit planar morphologies that pass upwards into coalescent domes forming structures that range in height from few decimetres up to 1 m. The stromatolites of the ephemeral lake are mainly planar, wavy (dm-scale) or domes that are coalescent and form tabular decimetric structures. Morphological vertical zonation is rare. The change in stromatolite morphology can be tentatively attributed to decreased accommodation and water energy conditions. However, this interpretation needs to be taken carefully considering that all these types of stromatolite morphologies have been observed along the Yacoraite succession, regardless of the lake stage. Stromatolites show mainly well-developed internal lamination. Their microfabrics are either fine-grained (micritic, clotted and/or filamentous) or formed by combinations of fine-grained and sparry layers composed of fibrous calcite crusts, calcite spherulites and/or shrubs.

Further work will intend to better understand the spatial and temporal distribution of the stromatolite geometries and fabrics along the Yacoraite Formation to shed light on the influence that environmental and biotic factors exert in stromatolite macro, meso and microscale in low-energy lacustrine settings.

How to cite: Tomás, S., Vallati, M., Galli, C., and Mutti, M.: Are stromatolite morphologies and fabrics good paleoenvironmental proxies? An example from the Salta Basin (Argentina), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11997, 2022.

EGU22-13200 | Presentations | CL1.2.3

Crystallization pathways in stalagmites from the South Pacific: implications for fabrics and Sr uptake 

Silvia Frisia, Andrea Borsato, Mohammadali Faraji, Adam Hartland, Attila Demeny, and Russel N. Drysdale

Fabrics, trace element partitioning and stable isotope ratio fractionation into speleothem calcite depend on crystallization processes. We documented that in warm and wet tropical climate settings, high supersaturation and pH may shift from layer growth to nanoparticle/nanocrystal attachment. This suggests that both classical and non-classical growth mechanisms may be operating. We have observed that both non-classical amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) nanoparticle or even nanocrystal attachment and spiral (classical) growth occur in calcite farmed in the caves of Atiu (Cook Island Archipelago).  Depending on localized shifts in SIcc and pH, “impurities” may be preferentially incorporated as non-monomer species (non-classical) or monomer (classical) species. This gives rise to “random” lateral distribution of some trace elements that would otherwise be expected to follow the classical “sector zoning” pattern.  The “random” distribution is typical of porous columnar fabric, whilst the sector zoning distribution in Sr characterizes compact columnar calcite. In the porous columnar calcite fabric, the occurrence of non-classical ACC particle attachment also influences the stable oxygen isotope composition of its fluid inclusions, which is more negative than expected from dripwater (Global Meteoric Water Line) values. In the compact columnar fabric, there is not enough fluid inclusion water for measurements.

When applied to Sr incorporation, our findings suggest that its uptake into speleothem calcite is a function of SIcc and pH (which influence non-classical pathways) rather than growth rate, as already hypothesized by Wasylenki et al. (2005). However, by having in mind only a classical crystallization mechanism, SIcc becomes a measure of growth rate. Consequently, the argument of Wasylenki et al. (2005) would not explain why Wassenburg et al. (2021) did not find a relation between Sr uptake and stalagmite growth rate. If SIcc is taken as a measure of the transition from monomer-by-monomer to ACC nanoparticle attachment, then Sr uptake becomes dependent on processes that govern the transformation from ACC to calcite at the site of attachment. The presence of growth inhibitors (inorganic and organic) that may be incorporated as non-monomer species and observed in Atiu’s speleothems, may explain why Sr uptake may either depend on growth rate or not, as well as its lateral heterogeneous variability. Ultimately, in porous columnar fabric, Sr uptake is dictated by both non-classical pathways and the presence of growth inhibitors incorporated as non-monomers.

References:

Wassenburg, J.A., Scholz, D., Jochum, K.P., Cheng, H., Oster, J., Immenhauser, A., Richter, D.K., Haeger, T., Jamieson, R.A., Baldini, J.U.L. and Hoffmann, D., 2016. Determination of aragonite trace element distribution coefficients from speleothem calcite–aragonite transitions. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 190, pp.347-367.

Wasylenki, L.E., Dove, P.M. and De Yoreo, J.J., 2005. Effects of temperature and transport conditions on calcite growth in the presence of Mg2+: Implications for paleothermometry. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 69(17), pp.4227-4236.

 

How to cite: Frisia, S., Borsato, A., Faraji, M., Hartland, A., Demeny, A., and Drysdale, R. N.: Crystallization pathways in stalagmites from the South Pacific: implications for fabrics and Sr uptake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13200, 2022.

EGU22-2031 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: modelling the impact of the Green Sahara 

Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, Qiong Zhang, and Francesco S.R. Pausata

During the mid-Holocene (6,000 years ago) the Northern Hemisphere experienced a reinforcement of the monsoonal regime, which led to the so-called “African Humid Period” (AHP) and to the greening of the Sahara region. Paleoclimate archives also show a gradual cooling of north-eastern Atlantic and the warming of the western subtropical Atlantic, eastern Mediterranean and northern Red Sea during the Holocene. These changes were likely accompanied by a positive-to-negative transition of the AO/NAO phase from mid-late Holocene into the pre-industrial period, leading to climate impacts in North America, Europe, the Mediterranean and Siberia.

However, inconsistencies still exist between proxies and model simulations of the Holocene climate. To explain the limitations of climate models, several studies pointed out the role of the vegetation feedback at tropical and higher latitudes. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the Green Sahara on the Northern Hemispheric mid-latitude atmospheric circulation and associated climate variability during the African Humid Period. To this aim, vegetated Sahara with reduced dust emission is prescribed into a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (the Green Sahara experiment).

Model simulations show a sizable impact on the main circulation features in the Northern Hemisphere when the Green Sahara is prescribed, especially during boreal summer, when the African monsoon develops. This study provides a first constraint on the Green Sahara influence on northern mid-latitudes, indicating new opportunities for understanding mid-Holocene climate anomalies in North America and Eurasia. However, inconsistencies between proxies and model simulations still persist in the Green Sahara experiment, indicating that more accurate simulations of the MH climate modifications are needed (e.g. prescribing realistic vegetation at mid and high latitudes, considering seasonal cycle in vegetation cover).

How to cite: Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Alvarez Castro, M. C., Zhang, Q., and Pausata, F. S. R.: Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: modelling the impact of the Green Sahara, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2031, 2022.

EGU22-2987 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

A proxy compatible model for the YD and the subsequent greening of the Sahara 

Jesse Velay-Vitow, Deepak Chandan, and Richard Peltier

Throughout the Quaternary, northern Africa has experienced recurring periods of intensified precipitation, known as African Humid Periods. The most recent such period began after the termination of the Younger Dryas (YD), which was a dramatic reversion to ice-age temperatures during the deglaciation. One intriguing explanation for the timing of this most recent greening of the Sahara is that the rapid recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) after the YD caused a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), resulting in increased precipitation in Northern Africa. In previous attempts to model the YD (Peltier et al., 2006; Peltier, 2007), and the subsequent transition to a Green Sahara, (Menviel et al. 2021, 2011), the total volume of freshwater forcing applied to the Arctic Ocean was quite large. The Eustatic Sea Level (ESL) increase associated with the freshwater influx in these studies is not compatible with proxy inferred ESL constraints. Furthermore, the increase in precipitation at the end of the YD was not nearly as abrupt as that which was simulated for the Green Sahara period at the end of the penultimate deglaciation, a fact that the authors attributed to the misalignment of the timing of AMOC maximum and the maximum in insolation forcing at the YD.

Here we present a model of the YD, in which only 0.15 Sv forcing for 100 years, applied to the Beaufort Gyre, was needed to collapse the AMOC and keep it in a collapsed state for nearly 1000 additional years. As the YD is approximately 1000 years long, we are able to achieve this interval of AMOC shutdown without continuously hosing the model with freshwater. As a result, the ESL rise in our model is physically plausible. Furthermore, unlike the results of Menviel et al. (2021, 2011), the simulated precipitation over North Africa in our model increases abruptly, in step with the abrupt resumption of the AMOC. The AMOC itself recovers due to a reinvigorated ocean-atmosphere flux exchange that occurs following the opening of a polynya in the Irminger Sea.

How to cite: Velay-Vitow, J., Chandan, D., and Peltier, R.: A proxy compatible model for the YD and the subsequent greening of the Sahara, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2987, 2022.

EGU22-3233 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Model performance in simulating the mid-Holocene Green Sahara 

Shivangi Tiwari, Riovie Ramos, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael L. Griffiths, Hugo Beltrami, Deepak Chandan, Anne de Vernal, Daniel Litchmore, Richard Peltier, and Clay R. Tabor

The Green Sahara Period, spanning about 11,500 to 5,000 years ago, offers an opportunity to test the ability of climate models to simulate large-scale changes in northern African climate through the strengthening of the West African Monsoon. In this study, we evaluate the performance of four models in simulating the mid-Holocene (6,000 BP), namely – EC-Earth, iCESM, CCSM4-Toronto, and the GISS ModelE2.1-G. Two scenarios are considered for each model – a standard PMIP scenario simulated with the mid-Holocene orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations with vegetation prescribed to pre-industrial conditions, as well as a Green-Sahara scenario which additionally considers factors such as enhanced vegetation, reduced dust, presence of lakes, and land and soil feedbacks. All mid-Holocene scenarios capture an increase in monsoonal precipitation in northern Africa. However, a comparison of the two mid-Holocene scenarios reveals significantly higher precipitation in northern Africa for all the Green-Sahara scenarios relative to the PMIP scenarios – an observation consistent across all models. Accompanied by a strengthened Saharan Heat Low, these changes in the West African Monsoon are also linked to polar amplification, a stronger Indian Summer Monsoon and alterations to the Walker circulation. Model results are in agreement with pollen-based SAT records, multi-proxy SST records and African lake level records. This comparison indicates that a realistic simulation of the mid-Holocene Green Sahara requires consideration of multiple factors in addition to orbital and greenhouse gas forcings.

How to cite: Tiwari, S., Ramos, R., Pausata, F. S. R., LeGrande, A. N., Griffiths, M. L., Beltrami, H., Chandan, D., de Vernal, A., Litchmore, D., Peltier, R., and Tabor, C. R.: Model performance in simulating the mid-Holocene Green Sahara, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3233, 2022.

EGU22-3696 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Hydroclimatic variability in the West Sahara and West Mediterranean during the last 150,000 years 

Jon Camuera Bidaurreta, María J. Ramos-Román, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Antonio García-Alix, and Heikki Seppä

 The continental and marine pollen-based quantitative reconstructions and the West Saharan dust records of the last 150,000 years are excellent paleoclimate proxies to observe variations in humidity and aridity as well as to evaluate similarities and differences in the climate history of the West Mediterranean and West African regions. The quantitative mean annual precipitation reconstruction from the western Mediterranean (southern Iberia and Alboran Sea) shows that during the Last Interglacial and the Early Holocene, the mean annual precipitation in this region was around 600-650 mm/yr, 200 mm/yr higher than the recent values (ca. 450 mm/yr). With respect to the cold Heinrich Stadials (from HS1 to HS6), the West Mediterranean and West Sahara show similar climatic trends and are characterized by strong and synchronous droughts. In particular, during these periods the West Mediterranean stack suggests mean annual precipitation values of 200-350 mm/yr. Here, we aim to elucidate the climate mechanisms affecting both regions during the most arid events of the last glacial period (i.e., Heinrich Stadials) as well as the similarities/differences between the African Humid Periods and the West Mediterranean Humid Periods for the last interglacial-glacial cycle.

How to cite: Camuera Bidaurreta, J., Ramos-Román, M. J., Jiménez-Moreno, G., García-Alix, A., and Seppä, H.: Hydroclimatic variability in the West Sahara and West Mediterranean during the last 150,000 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3696, 2022.

EGU22-4759 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Impacts of large‐scale Sahara solar farms on global climate, vegetation cover and solar potential 

Zhengyao Lu, qiong Zhang, Paul Miller, Jingchao Long, Qiang Zhang, Ellen Berntell, and Benjamin Smith

Large-scale photovoltaic solar farms envisioned over the Sahara desert can meet the world's energy demand while increasing regional rainfall and vegetation cover. However, adverse remote effects resulting from atmospheric teleconnections could offset such regional benefits. We use state-of-the-art Earth-system model simulations to evaluate the global impacts of Sahara solar farms. Our results indicate a redistribution of precipitation causing Amazon droughts and forest degradation, and global surface temperature rise and sea-ice loss, particularly over the Arctic due to increased polarward heat transport, and northward expansion of deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere. We also identify reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Niño variability and enhanced tropical cyclone activity. Comparison to proxy inferences for a wetter and greener Sahara ∼6,000 years ago appears to substantiate these results. In addition, through perturbed atmospheric circulations, the global cloud cover is affected, and in turn, the solar potential in many heavily solar-powered regions. Understanding these responses within the Earth system provides insights into the site selection concerning any massive deployment of solar energy in the world's deserts.

How to cite: Lu, Z., Zhang, Q., Miller, P., Long, J., Zhang, Q., Berntell, E., and Smith, B.: Impacts of large‐scale Sahara solar farms on global climate, vegetation cover and solar potential, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4759, 2022.

EGU22-6415 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Drivers of the evolution and amplitude of African Humid Periods 

Laurie Menviel, Aline Govin, Arthur Avenas, Katrin Meissner, Katharine Grant, and Polychronis Tzedakis

During orbital precession minima, the Sahara was humid and more vegetated. Uncertainties remain over the climatic processes controlling the initiation, demise and amplitude of these African Humid Periods (AHPs). Here we study these processes using a series of transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation and Last Interglacial period performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM). These results are compared to a transient simulation of the last deglaciation and Holocene. We find that the strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at the end of deglacial millennial-scale events exerts a dominant control on the abrupt initiation of AHPs, as the AMOC modulates the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In addition, residual Northern Hemispheric ice-sheets can delay the peak of the AHPs. Through its impact on Northern Hemispheric ice-sheets disintegration and thus AMOC, the larger rate of insolation increase during the penultimate compared to the last deglaciation can explain the earlier and more abrupt onset of the AHP during the Last Interglacial period. Finally, we show that the mean climate state modulates precipitation variability, with higher variability under wetter background conditions.

How to cite: Menviel, L., Govin, A., Avenas, A., Meissner, K., Grant, K., and Tzedakis, P.: Drivers of the evolution and amplitude of African Humid Periods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6415, 2022.

EGU22-7364 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

A Moist Static Energy Budget Perspective on Precipitation Changes during the Mid-Holocene African Humid Period 

Dorian Spät, Aiko Voigt, and Michela Biasutti

The Mid-Holocene (roughly 7,000-5,000 years before present) was a time of profound changes in the landscape of northern Africa. Variations in orbital forcing led to higher insolation of the northern hemisphere during summer, which triggered a so-called African Humid Period. Climate proxies indicate an intensified West African Monsoon during this period and a northward extension of precipitation, but climate models underestimate both the expansion and accumulation of rainfall during monsoon season. Causes of these shortcomings could be the insufficient representation of feedbacks between rainfall, soils and vegetation, but it could also be – in alternative or in addition – the inadequate parameterization of convective processes. To investigate the influence of the representation of convection, Jungandreas et al. (2021) performed simulations with ICON-NWP for Mid-Holocene northern Africa, applying present day soil conditions and using different horizontal model resolutions, ranging from 40 km with parameterized convection to 5 km with resolved convection. In the JAS mean, the simulations with parameterized convection produce more precipitation and a further northward expansion of precipitation, than the simulations with resolved convection. These results show that the effects of soil feedbacks and the representation of convection do not interact linearly. Therefore, we investigate these simulations more closely, using the moist static energy budget to analyze the dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. Furthermore, we are conducting simulations with a simplified model setup with an idealized tropical continent, following the TRACMIP protocol (Voigt et al., 2016). These simulations include runs with parameterized and with resolved convection and are performed with the new ICON-Earth System Model (ICON-ESM V1.0) (Jungclaus et al., 2021). The idealized continent excludes soil feedbacks, so this approach allows us to isolate the dynamical effects of resolved convection. Utilizing the moist static energy budget, our results will add understanding of fundamental dynamical processes related to precipitation during the mid-holocene African Humid Period.

References

Jungandreas, L., Hohenegger, C. and Claussen, M. (2021), ‘Influence of the representation of convection on the mid-holocene west african monsoon’, Climate of the Past 17(4), 1665–1684. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1665-2021.

Jungclaus, J. H. et al. (2021), ‘The icon earth system model version 1.0’, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. Preprint. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000748.

Voigt, A. et al. (2016), ‘The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle andclaussen a continent model intercomparison project: Tracmip’, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 8(4), 1868–1891. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000748.

How to cite: Spät, D., Voigt, A., and Biasutti, M.: A Moist Static Energy Budget Perspective on Precipitation Changes during the Mid-Holocene African Humid Period, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7364, 2022.

EGU22-8249 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Northern Sahara speleothems record timing of rainfall and moisture source during Green Sahara periods 

Hamish Couper, Christopher Day, Said Maouche, Aboubakr Deramchi, Stacy Carolin, Andrew Mason, Mohamed El Messaoud Derder, Abdelkarim Yelles Chaouche, and Gideon Henderson

The hyper-arid Saharan desert belt stretching across North Africa is an important part of the global climate system, with dust export shown to influence climate systems such as ENSO and distant monsoon systems. Understanding climate dynamics and potential future changes in this region is however difficult due to a paucity in both instrumental and high-resolution paleoclimate data. There is strong evidence for periods of increased rainfall across large parts of North Africa during the late Quaternary, termed ‘Green Sahara’ periods, which contribute to regional aquifer recharge and improved human population connectivity across the Sahara. There is, however, currently limited evidence regarding: i) precisely where and when rainfall occurred and; ii) the sources of moisture contributing to increased rainfall at the northern-most reaches of the Sahara.

In this study, we present new proxy reconstructions from the northern limits of the presently hyper-arid Sahara Desert, to identify moisture sources, timing and latitudinal extent of rainfall change during these so-called Green Sahara periods. We do this using several ancient fossil stalagmites collected from cave sites in the desert foothills of the central Saharan Atlas Mountains, Algeria. High-precision U-Th chronology and stable-isotope measurements on calcite samples from multiple cave sites contribute towards an east-west transect of records. Due to the locations of the caves, stalagmite growth periods and stable isotope records provide direct evidence of where and when there was significantly increased rainfall in this region, and help us to identify potential sources of moisture through time. We present these results, and their implications for a more detailed reconstruction of the occurrence of Green Sahara periods in northwest Africa.

How to cite: Couper, H., Day, C., Maouche, S., Deramchi, A., Carolin, S., Mason, A., Derder, M. E. M., Yelles Chaouche, A., and Henderson, G.: Northern Sahara speleothems record timing of rainfall and moisture source during Green Sahara periods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8249, 2022.

EGU22-9065 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Effect of nitrogen limitation and soil biophysics on Holocene greening of the Sahara 

Jooyeop Lee, Jinkyu Hong, Martin Claussen, Jeongwon Kim, Je-Woo Hong, and In-Sun Song

The so–called Green Sahara (GS), wet and vegetative Sahara region in the early to mid–Holocene, provides useful information on our climate simulation because it is a consequence of complex interaction between biophysical and climatic processes. It is still a challenge to simulate the GS in terms of vegetative extent and precipitation using the current climate models. This study attempts to simulate the 8,000 year ago Green Sahara by using the state–of–the–art Earth system model CESM that incorporates the nitrogen cycle and the soil–precipitation feedbacks. Our study puts more emphasis on the impact of soil biophysical properties and soil nitrogen influenced by soil organic matter on the simulation of the GS. In this coupled simulation, vegetation interacts with changes in soil properties and soil organic matter by phenology, decomposition and allocation of carbon and nitrogen. With changes in the Earth’s orbit and dust in the early to mid–Holocene, the model simulates increased precipitation in North Africa, but does not capture the extent of the GS. Our analysis shows that the Holocene greening is simulated better if the amount of soil nitrogen and soil texture are properly modified for the humid and vegetative GS period. Soil biochemical and physical properties increase precipitation and vegetation cover in North Africa through their influence on photosynthesis and surface albedo and their consequent enhanced albedo– and evapotranspiration–precipitation feedbacks. Our findings suggest that future climate simulation needs to consider consequent changes in soil nitrogen and texture with changes in vegetation cover and density for proper climate simulations.

More information on this work can be found at
Lee et al. (2022) Effect of nitrogen limitation and soil biophysics on Holocene greening of the Sahara, Climate of the Past, accepted.

 

How to cite: Lee, J., Hong, J., Claussen, M., Kim, J., Hong, J.-W., and Song, I.-S.: Effect of nitrogen limitation and soil biophysics on Holocene greening of the Sahara, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9065, 2022.

EGU22-9682 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Green Sahara spatial and temporal patterns 

Martin Claussen, Anne Dallmeyer, Mateo Duque Villegas, and Leonore Jungandreas

Social, biological and environmental dynamics have affected the way of humans out of Africa during the late Quaternary. Hence understanding the dynamics of these three factors and their interaction is a prerequisite for understanding human migration. Conceptual climate and environmental modeling is often based on individual paleo climate records which are sparsely distributed in space and time, and fewer and fewer records exist the further one looks into the past. Can climate system modeling provide a way forward? So far, different climate system models yield completely different patterns of past greening in the Sahara. None of the global models is able to generate local landscape changes like the emergence of gallery forests or wetlands that could provide green corridors or barriers for migration. Considering a spectrum of models of different complexity might be the way forward. Coarse-scale models can be used to explore multi-millennial-scale and continent-scale dynamics, thereby providing information on the large-scale effect of orbital forcing or the gross differences in the overall dynamics of the last African Humid Periods, for example. Global climate system models with a grid size of some 100 km, e.g. the CMIP models, yield interesting insight into large-scale atmospheric dynamics and regional heterogeneity, like differences between West and East Sahara weather and vegetation patterns. This type of models can also help reconciling seemingly divergent reconstructions, such as the discussion of abrupt vs gradual termination of Saharan greening some 5000 years ago. For a more detailed view on local landscape changes, regional climate models operating at km-scale are necessary to resolve the complex orography, mesoscale convection and related local climate changes. These models can currently be run over seasons only. However, development of a new generation of Earth system models bodes well for the potential use of global high-resolution simulations. In summary, we suppose that using the spectrum of climate system models will bring models and proxy data closer together and will advance our understanding of past climate change and human migration.

How to cite: Claussen, M., Dallmeyer, A., Duque Villegas, M., and Jungandreas, L.: Green Sahara spatial and temporal patterns, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9682, 2022.

EGU22-9906 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Orbital and non-orbital drivers of late Quaternary African Humid Periods 

Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen

Variations in the Earth's orbit are recognised as the main trigger for the hydrological changes that led to the periodic 'greening' of the Sahara region over the late Quaternary. However, the frequency and amplitude of the greening events as seen in the geological records cannot be predicted from orbital theory alone. To understand the changes in the proxy data it is also important to consider feedback mechanisms that arise from the complexity of the interactions between the vegetation, land, atmosphere and ocean components in the region. Yet discrepancies between state-of-the-art computer simulations of greening during African Humid Periods (AHPs) and proxy data still remain. We hypothesize that the effects of additional internal forcing from other climate drivers like atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and extension of ice sheets may have had a greater impact than previously thought. Using two climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution, CLIMBER-2 and MPI-ESM, we simulate several of the greening events in the Sahara within the last glacial cycle and study the effects of the orbital, GHGs and ice sheets forcings for every greening response. The results from CLIMBER-2 suggest that the critical insolation at the Tropics required for AHPs onset depends on atmospheric levels of GHGs, while the results from MPI-ESM show that the spatial pattern that develops during AHPs varies with all three forcing factors. These findings highlight the role that GHGs may play for the future of Saharan climate, when low--eccentricity orbits concur with high levels of atmospheric GHGs.

How to cite: Duque-Villegas, M., Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., and Kleinen, T.: Orbital and non-orbital drivers of late Quaternary African Humid Periods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9906, 2022.

EGU22-11740 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Unpacking spatial tensions: An interdisciplinary analysis of large-scale solar farm effects in drylands 

Qian Zhang, Ellen Berntell, Zhengyao Lu, and Qiong Zhang

The last decades have seen rapid growth of renewable energy globally for accommodating the urgent need of mitigating climate change. Large-scale projects like solar farms are actively financed by transnational investors to get established in drylands like Sahara. The Earth-system model simulations on large-scale solar-farm scenarios show an increased regional rainfall and vegetation cover, analogue to a “green Sahara” that happened in the past. It will not only induce local climate and ecosystem changes but also prompt remote impacts globally through atmospheric teleconnections and ocean dynamics. This suggests that spatial tensions are inherent to climate change mitigation measures, where action in one place at a particular time impacts not only this place and the short time but place at distance and time in the future. Meanwhile, case studies in social sciences seem to suggest common unintended social consequences of the ongoing projects but no systematic assessment across these projects has been done. This study thus aims to pilot an interdisciplinary investigation of the multi-dimensional effects of large-scale renewable energy projects, mainly solar farms in drylands. Our literature review of the social effects across solar farms and other major types of renewable energy projects shows that, local host communities widely bear adverse social consequences from these projects despite there are benefits at regional, national, and transnational levels. Economic redistribution and social differentiation rapidly occur through land acquisition, livelihoods, compensation, and development programs, further dividing local communities and amplifying inequalities. These social effects could be further complicated by the likely local climate and ecosystem changes as shown by our Earth-system model simulations. Based on this combined analysis, we conclude that spatial tensions in the current climate change mitigation measures challenge the assumption of global common goods and the reach of global justices. We urge interdisciplinary research to combine their different expertise for developing integrated conceptual and methodological models, for better understanding the intersected effects of renewable energy projects on drylands, and for advising fair and just climate mitigation policy and measures.

How to cite: Zhang, Q., Berntell, E., Lu, Z., and Zhang, Q.: Unpacking spatial tensions: An interdisciplinary analysis of large-scale solar farm effects in drylands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11740, 2022.

EGU22-12442 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Green Sahara Periods in a warmer world: a proxy-based reconstruction of the last 11 Myr 

Anya Crocker, B. David Naafs, Thomas Westerhold, Rachael James, Matthew Cooper, Ursula Röhl, Richard Pancost, Chuang Xuan, Colin Osborne, David Beerling, and Paul Wilson

The Sahara is a vast, bare, intensely arid, dust exporting landscape today. Yet, in the early Holocene, the Sahara was green; a well-vegetated landscape crosscut by a network of rivers and lakes, populated by hippopotamuses, other megafauna and our early ancestors. Strong evidence also exists for multiple earlier Green Sahara Periods (GSPs), with their occurrence paced by variability in solar insolation. However, terrestrial climate archives used to provide direct evidence of past humid conditions are often plagued with intervals of erosion and/or non-deposition, while sapropels (organic-rich sediment layers in the Mediterranean Sea) only provide an indirect record of North African climate. Here, we explore how the expression of GSPs has changed across a range of global climate states, including warmer intervals than today, with new, detailed records of terrigenous inputs to North Atlantic deep-sea sediments situated underneath the Saharan dust plume. We document a long and sustained history of astronomically-paced oscillations between distinctly humid and arid conditions from at least 11 million years ago, with three distinct phases in the sensitivity of the relationship between astronomical forcing and African hydroclimate identified. Our data provide a new framework for assessing evolutionary outcomes on land, including implications for our hominid ancestors.

How to cite: Crocker, A., Naafs, B. D., Westerhold, T., James, R., Cooper, M., Röhl, U., Pancost, R., Xuan, C., Osborne, C., Beerling, D., and Wilson, P.: Green Sahara Periods in a warmer world: a proxy-based reconstruction of the last 11 Myr, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12442, 2022.

EGU22-12607 | Presentations | CL1.2.4

Vegetation feedbacks enhance the West African Monsoon during the Mid-Holocene 

Ellen Berntell and Qiong Zhang

Proxy records have shown that the Mid-Holocene was a period of humid conditions across West Africa, with an enhanced West African Monsoon (WAM) reaching far into the Sahara region and with vegetation covering areas currently characterized by desert leading to conditions being referred to as the Green Sahara. However, General Circulation Models struggle with recreating this strengthened Mid-Holocene monsoon, and the results from the latest PMIP4 simulations showed a clear underestimation of the rainfall enhancement across the Sahel and Sahara region. Understanding what physical processes drive the variability of the WAM, and including those processes in our simulations, might aid in closing this gap. The vegetation-albedo feedback has long been viewed as an important process modulating the monsoon variability in West Africa, and simulations using prescribed vegetation to recreate a Green Sahara have exhibited a strengthening of the WAM and increased rainfall. However, these simulations represent an idealised vegetation cover based on proxy records found along the west coast of West Africa and do not take any environmental heterogeneity into account. Furthermore, this only represents a one-directional forcing by the vegetation on the climate, rather than the vegetation-albedo feedbacks. This might therefore over-/underestimate the changes of the WAM, as well as over-/understate the importance of the vegetation feedbacks. To address this, we have simulated the Mid-Holocene (~6 ka) climate using the high-resolution Earth System Model EC-Earth3-Veg. The results show that coupled dynamic vegetation reproduce a clear enhancement of the WAM when compared to simulations with a prescribed modern vegetation cover. This enhances warming of the Sahara region and deepens the Sahara Heat Low resulting in increased rainfall and strengthened monsoonal flow across West Africa. However, the enhancement is still below what can be viewed in proxy reconstructions which highlights the importance of investigating additional processes, such as including interactive aerosol-albedo feedbacks.

How to cite: Berntell, E. and Zhang, Q.: Vegetation feedbacks enhance the West African Monsoon during the Mid-Holocene, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12607, 2022.

EGU22-2075 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

The Little Ice Age CO2 drop:  Natural, Anthropogenic or Artefact? 

Amy King, Thomas Bauska, Ed Brook, Mike Kalk, Ivo Strawson, Jenna Epifanio, Helene Hoffman, and Eric Wolff

We present new measurements of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Skytrain ice core, with gas ages dated around 1610AD. The aim of these measurements is to improve our understanding of why there is a significant difference between measured CO2 at that time in current ice core records.

A pronounced feature of the Law Dome record (accumulation 60 cm ice eq. yr; gas age distribution 8 years,) is a rapid decrease in CO2 of ~10 ppm over 50 years with a distinct minimum at 1610. The cause of this decrease is much debated, with complex carbon cycle feedbacks required in explanation. However, other ice cores do not show the same event. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) divide record (accumulation 22 cm ice eq. yr; gas age distribution 19 years) shows a steadier decline in CO2 of approximately 6 ppm over the same period, with the record also ~2-3 ppm higher than Law Dome throughout 900-1800 CE. A follow-up study using the Dronning Maud Land (DML) ice core (accumulation 7 cm ice eq. yr; gas age distribution 65 years) attempted to prove which core showed the real atmospheric signal, but results were inconclusive due to the wide gas-age distribution of the record. While Skytrain (accumulation 14 cm ice eq. yr) does not match the accumulation rate of Law Dome, we present these new, high-resolution gas measurements over the period to work towards answering the following questions: (1) if the Law Dome record is correct, what caused this amplitude of CO2 change over a short timescale? (2) Does one of the records suffer from contamination? (3) Is our understanding of gas smoothing processes in these ice cores inaccurate? We will then use these measurements, from a well-validated ‘needle-crusher’ CO2 device at the ice core labs at Oregon State University, USA, to validate a new semi-continuous ice-grating device (for which we present a preliminary outline) at the new ice core gas analysis lab at the British Antarctic Survey, UK.

How to cite: King, A., Bauska, T., Brook, E., Kalk, M., Strawson, I., Epifanio, J., Hoffman, H., and Wolff, E.: The Little Ice Age CO2 drop:  Natural, Anthropogenic or Artefact?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2075, 2022.

EGU22-3584 | Presentations | CL1.2.5 | Highlight

Climate of the last 125 kyr at Skytrain Ice Rise, Antarctica 

Eric Wolff and Helene Hoffmann and the WACSWAIN science team plus collaborating scientists

There is intense interest in the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).  Models range widely in their predictions and in the physics they include.  Because the timescales for ice sheets are long, our best hope of constraining the solutions is to look at the past behaviour of WAIS. The last interglacial (LIG) is a particularly important time because Antarctic temperature was higher than present and some models predict the complete loss of WAIS and of the large ice shelves adjacent to it.

Within the WACSWAIN (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) project, in 2019 we retrieved a 651 metre ice core to the bed of Skytrain Ice Rise. This ice rise is adjacent to the Ronne Ice shelf and the WAIS, but is expected to have maintained an independent ice flow because of the protection afforded by the Ellsworth Mountains.  The ice core has been processed and analysed continuously for a range of analytes, including water isotopes, methane and major chemistry.

In this presentation we will first describe the dating of the ice core achieved in the top half of the ice column by annual layer counting supplemented by fixed horizons, and deeper down by ice flow modelling supplemented by tie points from chemistry, 10Be, as well as atmospheric CH4 and δ18O. The core is continuous through the last glacial period, and most of the last interglacial. Discontinuities occur near the base, in the ice at the older end of the LIG, so that although older ice may be  present, we can only interpret the core to 125 ka.

Overall, the ice core record shows the clearly recognisable pattern of all the Antarctic Isotopic Maxima seen in East Antarctic ice cores over the last glacial cycles. In the early part of the Holocene, we see a very interesting pattern representing thinning of the ice rise and retreat of the Ronne Ice shelf.  This allows us to add reliable dates to the history of ice retreat in the early Holocene.

In the LIG, the record of marine ions in the ice suggest that the Ronne Ice Shelf was present at least from 125 ka onwards. This rules out occurrence of some of the more extreme retreats of WAIS that would have led to seaways between the Weddell, Amundsen and Ross Seas.  We see somewhat higher water isotope ratios in the LIG than the Holocene, possibly consistent with some drawdown of WAIS in sectors other than the Weddell region.

How to cite: Wolff, E. and Hoffmann, H. and the WACSWAIN science team plus collaborating scientists: Climate of the last 125 kyr at Skytrain Ice Rise, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3584, 2022.

EGU22-3916 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores (60-9 ka) 

Jiamei Lin, Anders Svensson, Christine S. Hvidberg, Johannes Lohmann, Steffen Kristiansen, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Bo M. Vinther, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas Stocker, Michael Sigl, Matthias Bigler, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, and Robert Mulvaney

Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected by their accompanying sulfuric acid deposition in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions that occurred during the second half of the last glacial period and the early Holocene, 60-9 ka years before AD 2000 (b2k). Over most of the investigated interval the ice cores are synchronized making it possible to distinguish large eruptions with a global sulfate distribution from eruptions detectable in one hemisphere only. Due to limited data resolution and large variability in the sulfate background signal, particularly in the Greenland glacial climate, we only list Greenland sulfate depositions larger than 20 kg km-2 and Antarctic sulfate depositions larger than 10 kg km-2. With those restrictions, we identify 1113 volcanic eruptions in Greenland and 740 eruptions in Antarctica within the 51 ka period - where the sulfate deposition of 85 eruptions is found at both poles (bipolar eruptions). Based on the ratio of Greenland and Antarctic sulfate deposition, we estimate the latitudinal band of the bipolar eruptions and assess their approximate climatic forcing based on established methods. Twenty-five of the identified bipolar eruptions are larger than any volcanic eruption occurring in the last 2500 years and 69 eruptions are estimated to have larger sulfur emission strengths than the Tambora, Indonesia eruption (1815 AD). Throughout the investigated period, the frequency of volcanic eruptions is rather constant and comparable to that of recent times. During the deglacial period (16-9 ka b2k), however, there is a notable increase in the frequency of volcanic events recorded in Greenland and an obvious increase in the fraction of very large eruptions. For Antarctica, the deglacial period cannot be distinguished from other periods. This confirms the suggestion that the isostatic unloading of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets may be related to the enhanced NH volcanic activity. Our ice-core based volcanic sulfate records provide the atmospheric sulfate burden and estimates of climate forcing for further research on climate impact and understanding the mechanism of the Earth system.

How to cite: Lin, J., Svensson, A., S. Hvidberg, C., Lohmann, J., Kristiansen, S., Dahl-Jensen, D., Peder Steffensen, J., Olander Rasmussen, S., Cook, E., Astrid Kjær, H., M. Vinther, B., Fischer, H., Stocker, T., Sigl, M., Bigler, M., Severi, M., Traversi, R., and Mulvaney, R.: Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores (60-9 ka), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3916, 2022.

EGU22-4287 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Preliminary results of global biosphere productivity reconstruction over Heinrich Stadial 4 from the triple isotopic composition of air oxygen trapped in NEEM ice core 

Ji-Woong Yang, Amaëlle Landais, Thomas Blunier, Stéphanie Duchamp-Alphonse, and Frédéric Prié

Global biosphere primary productivity via photosynthesis is the largest carbon uptake flux from the atmosphere. The Earth biosphere currently absorbs near half of the carbon emitted by anthropogenic activities (Friedlingstein et al., 2020). Therefore, for a better projection of future carbon cycle, it is important to understand how the global biosphere would respond to abrupt climate changes which occurred in the past. The last glacial period is punctuated by a number of rapid shifts between relatively cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) stages named Dansgaard-Oeschger events (DO). Some stadials are also associated with abrupt, massive iceberg discharge event and are called Heinrich Stadials (HSs). The high-resolution CO2 reconstruction from polar ice cores demonstrated millennial-scale CO2 variations over HS-DO events (Bauska et al., 2021). The gradual rising of CO2 over HS has been attributed to ventilation changes in Southern Ocean (Gottschalk et al., 2016; Menviel et al., 2018) and/or reduced biological uptake (Ahn et al., 2012; Gottschalk et al., 2016; Schmittner and Lund, 2015). However, the role of the global biosphere is not well understood because of difficulties in estimating global biosphere productivity from local reconstructions based on indirect tracers.

To address this, here we use the triple isotopic composition of air oxygen (17Δ = ln(δ17O+1) - λref·ln(δ18O+1), λref = 0.516), which is a biogeochemical tracer of global biosphere primary productivity (Luz et al., 1999). We measured 17Δ of trapped air in the NEEM ice core over 36 to 42 ka interval, covering HS4 and DO8 events. The new NEEM 17Δ data show no significant change over HS4, while CO2 records from multiple ice cores indicate near ~20 ppm increase (e.g., Ahn and Brook, 2014; Bauska et al., 2021). By using the box models describing 17Δ systematics between biosphere-troposphere-stratosphere (e.g., Landais et al., 2007; Blunier et al., 2012), our preliminary results suggest that global biosphere productivity increases during HS4. This result is inconsistent with previous estimates based on ice-core records of non-sea-salt Na and Ca (Fischer et al., 2007), and the marine sediment core opal flux record (Gottschalk et al., 2016), both indicating a reduction of Southern Ocean biological productivity. More 17Δ samples remain to be measured up to the General Assembly 2022 and we hope to have a clearer picture by then.

How to cite: Yang, J.-W., Landais, A., Blunier, T., Duchamp-Alphonse, S., and Prié, F.: Preliminary results of global biosphere productivity reconstruction over Heinrich Stadial 4 from the triple isotopic composition of air oxygen trapped in NEEM ice core, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4287, 2022.

EGU22-4760 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Sequence of events at high resolution during deglaciations over the last 800ka from the EDC ice core 

Antoine Grisart, Amaelle Landais, Barbara Stenni, Ilaria Crotti, Etienne Legrain, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jean Jouzel, Fredéric Prié, Roxanne Jacob, and Elise Fourré

The EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core has been drilled from 1996 to 2004. Its study revealed a unique 800 ka long continuous climatic record including 9 deglaciations. Ice cores contain numerous proxies in the ice and in the air trapped in bubbles (chronological constraints, greenhouse gases concentration, local temperature proxies, mid to low latitude climate proxies).

Here, we focus on the link between the high and low latitudes during the glacial/interglacial transitions provided by the isotopic composition of water and oxygen archived in both ice and gas matrix. On one hand, the water isotopic composition brings information on past temperatures and water cycle re-organizations:   dD records past temperature, whereas the combination of d18O with dD or d17O provide information on the past water cycle organization through d-excess and 17O-excess linked to climatic conditions of the evaporative regions. On the other hand, the elemental composition of oxygen expressed in the O2/N2 ratio provides key information for orbital dating over the last 800 ka in complement with the isotopic composition of atmospheric oxygen (d18O of O2 or d18Oatm) which is related as well to the low latitude water cycle.

In this study, we present new high resolution records of water isotopes of many proxies (d18O, d-excess and 17O-excess) as well as high resolution measurements of O2/N2 and d18Oatm over the last 9 deglaciations on the EDC ice core. We detail the coherent low to mid-latitude orbital patterns obtained using our multiproxy approach with a focus on Termination II, Termination V and the 800 – 500 ka. deglaciations. We look at the similar patterns between terminations and between the different proxies presented.

How to cite: Grisart, A., Landais, A., Stenni, B., Crotti, I., Legrain, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Jouzel, J., Prié, F., Jacob, R., and Fourré, E.: Sequence of events at high resolution during deglaciations over the last 800ka from the EDC ice core, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4760, 2022.

EGU22-5035 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Integrating Raman spectroscopy and LA-ICP-MS 2D imaging to decipher the localisation and chemistry of impurities on the micro-scale in Greenland ice: Consistencies and open question 

Nicolas Stoll, Pascal Bohleber, Maria Hörhold, Tobias Erhardt, Jan Eichler, Marco Roman, Barbara Delmonte, Carlo Barbante, and Ilka Weikusat

Impurities in polar ice play, among others, a crucial role as a proxy for the paleoclimate while at the same time impacting the internal deformation of ice on the micro-scale. In particular, solid and dissolved impurities can impact grain growth through Zener pinning or the drag of grain boundaries. Recent studies on natural ice from Antarctica and Greenland highlight the need for a multi-method approach to determine the differences in the localisation and chemistry of solid and dissolved impurities comprehensively, in order to ultimately gain a more holistic understanding. Here we report on a recent pilot investigation pursuing the direct integration of complimentary methods: microstructure-mapping, Cryo-Raman spectroscopy and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) with 2D impurity imaging. While LA-ICP-MS enables the fast mapping of cm-size areas with lateral resolution in the order of tens of μm, Raman spectroscopy is more suited to identify the mineralogical composition of individual solid inclusions at the single μm scale. We analysed samples from the Holocene and Last Glacial from the Northeast Greenland Ice Core Project (EGRIP) and the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice cores. We find that the general localisation patterns of impurities (e.g., low vs. high concentration) are similar for both methods. Furthermore, both methods show (clusters of) inclusions in the grain interior. These findings display that a holistic approach is needed to truly decipher the localisation of impurities in the ice microstructure. Combining the advantages of both methods gives a good overview of the localisation of impurities, both solid and dissolved, on the micro-scale. Localisation patterns are related to the chemistry of the analysed impurities displaying the need for high-resolution methods. For example, Na is strongly located in the grain boundaries, Al is preferentially located within the ice grains and Mg can be located in both regimes. We analyse the role of inclusions in relation to 1) their chemistry and 2) their proximity to grain boundaries. Our approach of 2D impurity imaging in concert with established techniques, such as microstructure mapping and Raman spectroscopy, provides a detailed insight into the impurity distribution throughout a broad range of depths in an ice core. We demonstrate the potential of such an approach to carefully investigate the evolution of impurity localisation in ice cores, with special significance to ice deformation processes and the preservation of the climatic record.

How to cite: Stoll, N., Bohleber, P., Hörhold, M., Erhardt, T., Eichler, J., Roman, M., Delmonte, B., Barbante, C., and Weikusat, I.: Integrating Raman spectroscopy and LA-ICP-MS 2D imaging to decipher the localisation and chemistry of impurities on the micro-scale in Greenland ice: Consistencies and open question, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5035, 2022.

EGU22-5166 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

New dating experiment on EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core over the last 800 kyrs using the Bayesian tool Paleochrono and new records of elemental and isotopic composition in the air trapped in the EDC ice core. 

Marie Bouchet, Antoine Grisart, Amaëlle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Frédéric Prié, Dominique Raynaud, Vladimir Ya Lipenkov, Emilie Capron, Etienne Legrain, Thomas Extier, and Anders Svensson

To understand the causal relationship between forcing (orbital parameters, greenhouse gas concentration…) and the climate change, dating climate archives is crucial. Ice cores are unique archives because they provide a direct record of greenhouse gas concentration. However, dating ice cores is particular since they require two chronologies: one for the ice and one for the younger air trapped in bubbles inside the core. The coherent AICC2012 chronology was established for five ice cores: EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), North Greenland Ice core Project (NGRIP), Vostok (VK) and TALos Dome Ice CorE (TALDICE). A sedimentation model was used to reconstruct past variations of three parameters: accumulation of snow at surface, ice layer thinning in depth and Lock-In-Depth (LID), the depth where air is trapped. Ice and gas ages along the core are estimated from these parameters. Then, a Bayesian tool optimised the age scale by constraining the chronology to respect chronological observations (orbital tuning, stratigraphic links between cores, tephra layers…) and by fitting the three parameters to background scenarios (accumulation deduced from ice isotopes, LID from δ15N, …). The AICC2012 chronology is associated with an uncertainty which arises up to 6 kyrs due to the discontinuity of the ice core composition records and to the poor knowledge when it comes to choose an optimised target for orbital tuning.

Since AICC2012, many new data have been obtained to improve the ice core chronology and it is the right period to produce an updated coherent chronology which could also be extended to other ice cores. Here, we present a first step toward the construction of the next coherent ice core chronology by including new dating constraints from recent data on the EDC ice core: 1) air isotopes (δ18Oatm , δO2 /N2) and air content used as orbital dating constraints, 2) the δ15N signal used to estimate the background scenario for LID. In addition, we make use of the East Asian stalagmite δ18Ocalcite signal as an alternative synchronisation target for the δ18Oatm (Extier et al. 2018).

This new dating experiment on EDC ice core aims to lower uncertainty of the chronology while providing a critical look on former hypotheses considered to establish AICC2012. For example, δ15N record was discontinuous at the time and it has been reconstructed based on its correlation with δD. Now that we have a continuous δ15N signal, we can evaluate the relevance of this reconstruction. Following this work, we will use new tie point constraints resulting from volcanic synchronisation which has recently been undertaken between Greenland and Antarctica (Svensson et al. 2020) and the ice cores Dome Fuji and WAIS Divide will be further studied to be included in the chronology.

How to cite: Bouchet, M., Grisart, A., Landais, A., Parrenin, F., Prié, F., Raynaud, D., Lipenkov, V. Y., Capron, E., Legrain, E., Extier, T., and Svensson, A.: New dating experiment on EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core over the last 800 kyrs using the Bayesian tool Paleochrono and new records of elemental and isotopic composition in the air trapped in the EDC ice core., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5166, 2022.

EGU22-5434 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

The state-of-the-art in cave ice coring 

Zoltán Kern and Aurel Perșoiu

Since the first core drilled in a cave ice deposit in 1947, more than 141 m of ice cores has been extracted from 20 cave ice deposits worldwide until 2021. Cave ice drilling projects focused mainly in Central European caves, however, half of the cave ice cores (3 out of 6) published in 2020 represent non-European localities predicts that an increasing number of such projects are focusing on other geographical areas hosting ice caves. Depending on the two types of ice encountered (firnified snow and frozen water), local climatic conditions and cave geometry, cave ice cores have highly variable length (between 1 and 25 m long), time span and continuity of the record covered (from a few years up to several thousands of year). The longest cave ice core in terms of both core length (~25 m) and continuous time span (~10 kyr) comes from Scărișoara Ice Cave (Romania), with several others (in Spain, Slovakia, Austria, Romania, the USA) reaching back in time towards (and beyond) the mid-Holocene. Major challenges in cave ice core science are posed by 1) presence of englacial rocky and woody debris, 2) complex stratigraphy of the ice deposits (often disturbed due to ice flow in a restricted space), 3) problematic chronology and 4) complex mechanisms of climate-proxy information transfer. Regardless, cave ice deposits offered over the past decade several unique records of Holocene climate and environmental change as well as of past microbial and fungal diversity. Because ice caves are located at much lower altitudes and latitudes than polar and mountain glaciers, they face the double threat of both increasing temperatures and precipitation amounts, several possible milennial old deposits being lost over the past few years. An ongoing race to salvage the paleoclimatic information these ice deposits holds is thwarted by climatic, financial and knowledge risks.

How to cite: Kern, Z. and Perșoiu, A.: The state-of-the-art in cave ice coring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5434, 2022.

EGU22-5470 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Development and application of a novel UHPLC-HRMS method for the analysis of organic wildfire tracers in ice cores. 

Francois Burgay, Daniil Salionov, Carla Huber, Thomas Singer, Florian Ungeheuer, Anja Eichler, Alexander Vogel, Sasa Bjelic, and Margit Schwikowski

Wildfires have an important role in affecting the Earth’s radiative balance. Biomass burning aerosols can scatter or absorb the incoming solar radiation, alter the ice and snow albedo and act as cloud condensation nuclei. Overall, their net contribution to the Earth’s radiative forcing is negative, however this estimate has large uncertainties. To better assess the impact of wildfires on climate (and vice versa), it is crucial to reconstruct their past regional and temporal variability on decadal and centennial timescales. Ice cores are excellent archives to perform such palaeofire reconstructions. Previous studies have reconstructed the occurrence of wildfires in ice cores using both inorganic (ammonium, potassium and black carbon) and organic proxies (levoglucosan, vanillic acid and p-hydroxybenzoic acid). However, a more comprehensive view that involved a broader suite of wildfire proxies was missing. Here, we present a new SPE-UHPLC-HRMS method for the determination of five organic biomass burning tracers (syringic acid, vanillic acid, vanillin, syringaldehyde and p-hydroxybenzoic acid) and pinic acid, as biogenic emission proxy, in ice core samples. This method showed average recoveries of 76% (58-88% range), excellent inter-day reproducibility, no significant matrix effects and fast analysis time (13 min per sample). Comparing the published concentration ranges of the selected species from different ice core regions (i.e. Alps, Greenland, Kamchatka, China and Svalbard Archipelago) with the procedural detection limits of this new methodology, we conclude that four of the six targeted compounds can be successfully detected in real ice and snow samples. Only for vanillin and syringaldehyde, no ice-core measurements have been reported in the scientific literature so far. The method development also involved the evaluation of common laboratory practices such as the melting and refreezing of ice samples before the analysis. We found that the melting and refreezing of the samples resulted in a mass loss for the majority of the investigated compounds, which was more evident at lower concentrations. We hypothesize that the reason of this phenomenon is the adsorption of the compounds on the walls of the glass vials used for this study. In light of this, we propose alternative sample storage strategies that can also be extended for the analysis of other compounds.

The method was successfully tested on nine ice core samples from the Colle Gnifetti (European Alps) and it will be applied on ice cores from the Alps and the Russian Altai, contributing to the better understanding of wildfire temporal evolution and their relations with climate.

How to cite: Burgay, F., Salionov, D., Huber, C., Singer, T., Ungeheuer, F., Eichler, A., Vogel, A., Bjelic, S., and Schwikowski, M.: Development and application of a novel UHPLC-HRMS method for the analysis of organic wildfire tracers in ice cores., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5470, 2022.

EGU22-5519 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Estimating the diffusion in the deepest section of the Dome-C ice core using a new statistical method 

Fyntan Shaw, Thomas Laepple, Torben Kunz, Vasileios Gkinis, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen

The diffusion of stable water isotopes in firn and ice is a complex process which can smooth the measured isotope profile and thus remove the high frequency variations. While for the firn this process is relatively well understood and can be accounted for, this is not the case in the deepest parts of the ice core, where additional processes are introduced due to the increased temperatures near bedrock. Combined with the extreme thinning the deep ice has experienced over hundreds of thousands of years, variations up to centennial or even millennial timescales can be heavily attenuated. Understanding how to best recover this signal in the deep ice is crucial to get a reliable record in deep ice cores such as the Beyond EPICA Oldest Ice Core that is currently being drilled.

In order to reconstruct the climate signal of this old ice, an accurate estimation of the diffusion length is necessary. Current estimation methods are mostly suitable for firn and shallow ice as they are assuming a rather stationary underlying climate signal. In this contribution, we present a method which approaches the issue without assuming the low frequency climate variability is negligible. Using this method on the high-resolution Dome-C isotope data (doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.939445), we provide an improved estimate of the diffusion length of the Dome-C ice-core. Both the diffusion length estimate of the deep ice in Dome-C as well as the new method are useful for the interpretation of future deep ice coring projects such as Beyond EPICA Oldest Ice Core.

How to cite: Shaw, F., Laepple, T., Kunz, T., Gkinis, V., and Dahl-Jensen, D.: Estimating the diffusion in the deepest section of the Dome-C ice core using a new statistical method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5519, 2022.

EGU22-5914 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

1000 years of climate history from a coastal West Antarctic ice core site 

Isobel Rowell, Robert Mulvaney, Eric Wolff, Helena Pryer, Dieter Tetzner, Liz Thomas, Julius Rix, and Carlos Martin

Few ice cores from the Amundsen and Bellingshausen sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) extend back in time further than a few hundred years. The WAIS is believed to be susceptible to collapse as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Modelling studies and palaeoclimatic evidence have suggested at least partial WAIS collapse and resulting sea level rise during previous warm periods, therefore understanding the stability of the WAIS during warm periods is important. The WACSWAIN project successfully drilled a 651 m ice core on Skytrain Ice Rise, adjacent to the Ronne Ice Shelf, in 2018, some data from which are now being published. The second WACSWAIN drilling project took place in 2020 on Sherman Island in the Abbott Ice Shelf, where the British Antarctic Survey’s (BAS) Rapid Access Isotope Drill (RAID) was deployed. The team drilled a 323 m deep borehole, with discrete samples of ice chippings collected from the entire depth range of the drilled ice. The samples were analysed for water isotopes and major ion content at BAS from 2020-2022. Validation of the RAID-ice data is confirmed through comparison with a shallow core drilled on Sherman Island during the same field campaign. Using annual layer counting of chemical records and volcanic horizon identification, an age scale for the record of 1724 discrete samples is presented. The Sherman Island ice record extends back to at least 1000 years before present, providing the oldest ice-derived continuous palaeoclimate record for the coastal Amundsen-Bellingshausen sector to date. An estimation of accumulation history at the site is presented. A comparison of the longer chemical and water isotope records with other regional ice cores provides insights into the spatial variability of change over recent centuries. Climate trends in the region of the Amundsen sea glaciers (including Thwaites) - considered the most vulnerable to future warming - are investigated.

How to cite: Rowell, I., Mulvaney, R., Wolff, E., Pryer, H., Tetzner, D., Thomas, L., Rix, J., and Martin, C.: 1000 years of climate history from a coastal West Antarctic ice core site, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5914, 2022.

EGU22-7056 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

​Development of ice sublimation device for analyses of methane isotopes in ice with high impurities 

Michael Dyonisius, Michael Döring, and Thomas Blunier

Common methods to liberate the air bubbles trapped in ice cores include melting (wet extraction) and mechanical destruction (dry extraction) of ice under vacuum. Wet extraction is commonly used for CH4 analyses; however, a recent study (Lee et al., 2020) showed that the presence of liquid water can introduce extraneous (non-paleoatmospheric) CH4 from the reaction between the meltwater and impurities. Measurements of CH4 using dry extraction methods had previously been done (e.g., Ferretti et al., 2005); however, a laboratory intercomparison study showed that dry extraction system generally have higher blanks (Sowers et al., 1997) for CH4. It is hypothesized that friction between components (either metal with metal or metal with ice) can be a source of contamination (e.g., Nicewonger et al., 2016; Sowers et al., 1997). A third method to liberate air trapped in ice core bubbles is sublimation under vacuum (e.g., Wilson and Donahue, 1989; Schmitt et al., 2011). The sublimation method guarantees complete gas extraction from both the air bubbles and the ice matrix / clathrates (Bereiter et al., 2015), and should be free of problems associated with wet extraction. Here we present a new sublimation system that aims to sublimate ~250g of ice and extract ~25 mL STP of air for measuring CH4 isotopes in ice with high impurities. We use three high powered (500W each) infrared lamps that emit peak radiation at wavelength of 1500 nm, which coincides with a local maxima in ice absorption spectra (Warren and Brandt, 2008). To ensure even sublimation, the infrared lamps are attached to a custom-made mounting bracket that is rotated around the glass vessel. This system is coupled to a previously built Gas Chromatography Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry (GC-IRMS) system (Sperlich et al., 2013) to purify and analyze δ13CH4 isotopes. At the time of writing, the GC-IRMS system is able to achieve 0.06 ‰ precision on standard air injections with contemporary CH4 mole fraction (1850 nmol/mol). Further testing to characterize the performance of the system using blank ice and test ice of known mole fraction and isotope values is underway.

How to cite: Dyonisius, M., Döring, M., and Blunier, T.: ​Development of ice sublimation device for analyses of methane isotopes in ice with high impurities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7056, 2022.

EGU22-7471 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Mid to Late Holocene East Antarctic ice-core tephrochronology: Implications for reconstructing volcanic eruptions and their impacts over the last 5,500 years 

Peter Abbott, Joseph McConnell, Nathan Chellman, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Gill Plunkett, and Michael Sigl

Ice cores are powerful archives for reconstructing volcanism and developing tephrochronological frameworks, as they can preserve both the soluble, i.e. aerosols, and non-soluble, i.e. tephra, products of volcanic eruptions. In addition, and particularly over Holocene timescales, high-precision annually resolved chronologies have been developed for these records and permit ages to be assigned to eruptions. The identification of tephra in ice cores in direct association with chemical indicators of volcanism, such as sulphate, can significantly enhance volcanic reconstructions as tephra can be linked to an eruptive source. Such source attributions can provide information on the location of the eruptions, the magnitude of aerosol emissions at the source and help assess any climatic impact. In addition, they can aid the reconstruction of volcanic histories and the assessment of future hazard risk.  

 

The tephra record for the interior of East Antarctica over the last 5,500 years is potentially underexploited as a prior focus on visible horizons and exploring the deep ice cores that cover longer time spans has resulted in only one horizon, dated to ~3.5 ka BP, being identified in these records. Here we discuss ongoing tephrochronological investigations of two ice-cores, B53 and B54, retrieved from the interior of the East Antarctic Plateau. High-resolution, sub-annual chemical records have been measured from both cores using a continuous melter system. These data were used to develop a sampling strategy to identify cryptotephra horizons with ice-core sections containing coeval peaks in fine insoluble particles and non-sea-salt sulphur targeted and >50 events were directly sampled. This approach recently has been used to identify cryptotephras in both Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. When glass tephra shards were identified thin sections were created and individual glass shards were geochemically analysed using electron-probe microanalysis to help identify their volcanic source and permit correlations between records.

 

Thus far, more than 10 cryptotephra horizons have been identified and linked to regional sources such as the South Sandwich and South Shetland Islands and the ~3.5 ka BP event has been traced in both cores as a visible layer. More detailed investigations are being conducted on samples from specific volcanic signals of interest that may derive from eruptions of ultra-distal volcanic sources. Such eruptions could have deposited very small glass tephra shards over Antarctica, which poses significant analytical challenges and necessitates the use of innovative approaches for tephra identification and geochemical analysis.

How to cite: Abbott, P., McConnell, J., Chellman, N., Kipfstuhl, S., Hörhold, M., Freitag, J., Plunkett, G., and Sigl, M.: Mid to Late Holocene East Antarctic ice-core tephrochronology: Implications for reconstructing volcanic eruptions and their impacts over the last 5,500 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7471, 2022.

EGU22-7641 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

A new continuous 10Be record for the last 5000 years measured on ice chips from a borehole in East Antarctica 

Long Nguyen, Andreas Nilsson, Chiara Paleari, Stefanie Müller, Marcus Christl, Florian Mekhaldi, Philip Gautschi, Robert Mulvaney, Julius Rix, and Raimund Muscheler

10Be concentrations measured from ice cores are key records for the reconstruction of long-term changes in solar activity and geomagnetic field intensity. Furthermore, 10Be records have additional applications in the dating of ice cores via the global cosmic ray signal, and studies of snow accumulation rates and atmospheric transport and deposition. Here, we present a new long-term 10Be record from ice chips recovered in austral summer 2017/2018 from Little Dome C, close to Dome Concordia station in East Antarctica and the location of the Beyond-EPICA drilling. The ice chips were drilled by the so-called Rapid Access Isotope Drill method recently developed by the British Antarctic Survey [1]. This new drilling method is based on an auger enclosed in a barrel that quickly collects ice chips instead of recovering a fully intact ice core. The drill design allowed for about 461 m of ice to be drilled in Antarctica in only 104 hours and the chips are suitable for stable water isotope and 10Be analysis. This opens up the prospect of fast recovery of samples for a continuous 10Be record not necessarily connected to a large and costly ice core project.

Our new 10Be record covers the upper 161 meters of ice chips encompassing the last 5000 years. We prepared and measured the ice chip samples using the optimized method demonstrated in our recent publication [2]. We improved the initial timescale of the ice chips via synchronizing changes in the 10Be concentration to changes in the atmospheric 14C concentration inferred from IntCal20. We then reconstruct solar activity and geomagnetic field intensity from the 10Be record using a newly developed Bayesian model aiming at separating the influence of the two processes. The reconstructed solar activity is compared to similar reconstructions based on other ice core 10Be records and the atmospheric 14C record. Similarly, the reconstructed geomagnetic field intensity is compared to the results of global geomagnetic field models that combine paleomagnetic data from archaeological artefacts, igneous rocks and sediments. We highlight the advantages of the new Bayesian model to separate and reconstruct the solar and geomagnetic field signals compared to the conventional methods where an independent geomagnetic field reconstruction is in fact required to reconstruct the solar signal.

 

[1]      J. Rix, R. Mulvaney, J. Hong, D.A.N. Ashurst, Development of the British Antarctic Survey Rapid Access Isotope Drill, J. Glaciol. 65 (2019) 288–298. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.9.

[2]      L. Nguyen, C.I. Paleari, S. Müller, M. Christl, F. Mekhaldi, P. Gautschi, R. Mulvaney, J. Rix, R. Muscheler, The potential for a continuous 10Be record measured on ice chips from a borehole, Results in Geochemistry. 5 (2021) 100012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ringeo.2021.100012.

 

How to cite: Nguyen, L., Nilsson, A., Paleari, C., Müller, S., Christl, M., Mekhaldi, F., Gautschi, P., Mulvaney, R., Rix, J., and Muscheler, R.: A new continuous 10Be record for the last 5000 years measured on ice chips from a borehole in East Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7641, 2022.

EGU22-8040 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

High-alpine Glacier Record Influenced by Melting 

Carla Huber, Anja Eichler, Enrico Mattea, Sabina Brütsch, Theo Jenk, Jacopo Gabrieli, Carlo Barbante, and Margit Schwikowski

High-alpine glacier ice cores are useful natural archives and allow access to continuous pollution records back to the pre-industrial era. This is especially true for glacier ice cores drilled in the European Alps, which are located close to the anthropogenic emission sources. However, due to global warming glaciers are increasingly affected by melting, subsequently altering the information stored in the natural archive.
Here we show the comparison between major ion records from shallow ice cores drilled on Grand Combin (4123 m a.s.l., Swiss Alps) in 2018 and 2020. Both shallow ice cores were dated applying annual layer counting using stable isotopes and concentrations of major ions (e.g., ammonium). Excellent agreement between both records was observed for the stable isotopes in the overlapping time period 2011-2018. However, in the core collected in 2020, effects of melting were detected for the major ion concentrations before 2016. As an extreme example: sulfate is significantly depleted in the years 2011-2016 in that core, losing 61% of the ion content in comparison with the core collected in 2018. Even for ammonium, which is the most preserved with only 16 % reduction, the seasonal cycle disappeared. The elution sequence matches the results of Avak et al. (2019).

Meteorological data indicate that mean annual air temperatures of 2019 and 2020 were not significantly higher than in the previous years. Instead, we attribute the melt damage in the 2020 core to a two-week period in summer 2019 with temperatures continuously above 0°C. Our finding that such a disturbance through melting can occur in only two years emphasises the critical state of these glacier archives. Thus, preserving these archives is important and a time sensitive matter.

 

REFERENCES

Avak, S. E., Trachsel, J. C., Edebeli, J., Brütsch, S., Bartels‐Rausch, T., Schneebeli, M., Schwikowski, M. and Eichler, A.: Melt‐induced fractionation of major ions and trace elements in an Alpine snowpack, Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface, 124(7), 1647-1657, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005026.

How to cite: Huber, C., Eichler, A., Mattea, E., Brütsch, S., Jenk, T., Gabrieli, J., Barbante, C., and Schwikowski, M.: High-alpine Glacier Record Influenced by Melting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8040, 2022.

Ice core data offers a popular tool to reconstruct high latitude paleo-climate and are often compared to reconstructions from other paleo-archives (e.g. marine sediment cores, pollen records, etc.). For instance, oxygen-stable-isotope (δ18O) of the ice-core water samples is commonly used to reconstruct past site temperatures. However, many high latitude marine temperature reconstructions show low accordance with the spatially inhomogeneous ice core δ18O-based reconstructions over the Holocene on multi-centennial to multi-millennial timescales. For example, many of the δ18O-based Greenland temperature reconstructions do not show a consistent Holocene Thermal Maximum (mid to early Holocene warm period, e.g. for Greenland from 5.4 ± 1.4 ka to 8.6 ± 1.6 ka b2k) found in many high-latitude climate records. The isotopic composition of the water samples provides a rather robust proxy for reconstructing paleo-temperatures for times where large temperature variations occur. In the Holocene where temperature variations are comparatively small, changes in seasonal distribution of precipitation as well as of evaporation conditions at the source region may dominate water-isotope-data variations. In addition, the change of elevation of the Greenland ice sheet over the Holocene leads to an additional temperature signal which is able to mask multi- millennial temperature trends. The use of nitrogen stable isotopes of ancient air trapped in the ice cores provides an alternative for ice core based site temperature reconstructions. This method uses the stability of isotopic compositions of nitrogen in the atmosphere at orbital timescales as well as the fact that changes are only driven by processes in polar firn. Thus gas-isotope-based reconstructions are independent from changes in precipitation seasonality or source signature. Here we present a high-resolution Holocene temperature record from Greenland summit, reconstructed based on nitrogen stable isotopes data (δ15N) from the GISP2 ice core. The reconstruction was conducted by exploiting a Monte Carlo based firn model inversion technique on GISP2 inert gas isotope data, which leads to robust uncertainty estimations. The most robust temperature estimate (T(δ15N)) was compared to a variety of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and terrestrial temperature proxies, showing comparable signatures for multi-centennial to multi-millennial signals. Our record reveals that the warmest period of the Holocene (Holocene Thermal Maximum, HTM) at Greenland summit occurred from 5.4 to 9.2 ka b2k. The HTM was composed by three distinct warm-phases interrupted by several centennial-scale cooling events. We find evidence for a rapid cooling beginning at about 5.4 ka b2k connecting the HTM with the Neoglaciation (long-term cooling trend, 0.4 to 5.1 ka b2k) and for a late Holocene warm-phase 1.3 to 2.2 ka b2k. Furthermore, Greenland warm-phases occurred mostly in times of low solar activity and are synchronous to three Bond-events (ice rafted debris depositions). We find evidence for a coherence of AMOC variability and Greenland summit temperature during the Holocene and conclude therefore that the latter is most likely mainly driven by changes in North Atlantic circulation patterns and AMOC variability for multi-centennial to multi-millennial variability.

How to cite: Döring, M. and Leuenberger, M. C.: Novel Holocene temperature reconstruction of Greenland summit from GISP2 nitrogen isotope data reveals similarities with North Atlantic Circulation and temperature proxies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8140, 2022.

EGU22-8404 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Laser Ablation - ICP-MS measurements for high resolution chemical ice core analysis with a first application to an ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise (Antarctica) 

Helene Hoffmann, Jason Day, Rachael Rhodes, Mackenzie Grieman, Jack Humby, Isobel Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Robert Mulvaney, Elizabeth Thomas, Sally Gibson, and Eric Wolff

The ice in the deepest and therefore oldest parts of polar ice cores is highly compressed. Annual layers, although potentially preserved, can be thinned to a millimeter scale or even below. However, for many palaeoclimate studies these are the most interesting sections. Within the WACSWAIN (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last Interglacial) project we aim to investigate particularly the basal part of an ice core recently drilled to bedrock at the Skytrain Ice Rise in West Antarctica. Our aim is to obtain unique information on the state of the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf during the last interglacial (LIG). To achieve this we have set up a system to perform using high-resolution laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) measurements using a cryocell stage on selected segments of the ice core. Here we present first results of system performance including assessment of measurement sensitivity and precision with respect to analyses of the most relevant components, including sodium, magnesium, calcium and aluminium. We report on the sample preparation technique as well as the resulting process blank. We evaluate the horizontal variability of the LA-ICP-MS signal across the ice core and the representativity of the high-resolution signal for an overall impurity content for different depth levels in the core. The results of the laser ablation ICP-MS measurements are then compared to low-resolution chemistry data from continuous flow analysis of the Skytrain ice core performed on the ice from the same depth. This comparison aims to evaluate the capabilities of the method in terms of improving depth resolution and annual variability. In a first application, sections of 80cm of ice from five different depth intervals covering time frames from late Holocene to the LIG are analysed via LA-ICP-MS and compared for their overall impurity content as well their signal variability. Finally, the potential of the method for resolving annual layers and fast changing climate signals within the core section covering the time period of the late last interglacial (about 115 - 120 ky before present) is investigated.

How to cite: Hoffmann, H., Day, J., Rhodes, R., Grieman, M., Humby, J., Rowell, I., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Mulvaney, R., Thomas, E., Gibson, S., and Wolff, E.: Laser Ablation - ICP-MS measurements for high resolution chemical ice core analysis with a first application to an ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise (Antarctica), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8404, 2022.

EGU22-9013 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

Towards 81Kr and 39Ar dating with 1 kg of ice 

Florian Ritterbusch, Ilaria Crotti, Xi-Ze Dong, Elise Fourré, Ji-Qiang Gu, Roxanne Jacob, Wei Jiang, Amaëlle Landais, Zheng-Tian Lu, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Lili Shao, Lide Tian, A-Min Tong, Guo-Min Yang, and Jie Wang

Paleoclimate reconstructions from ice core records can be hampered due to the lack of a reliable chronology, especially when the stratigraphy is disturbed and conventional dating methods cannot be readily applied. The noble-gas radioisotopes 81Kr and 39Ar can in these cases provide robust constraints as they yield absolute, radiometric ages. 81Kr (half-life 229 ka) covers the time span of 30-1300 ka, which is particularly relevant for polar ice cores, whereas 39Ar (half-life 268 a) with a dating range of 50-1800 a is suitable for alpine glaciers. For a long time the use of 81Kr and 39Ar for dating of ice samples was impeded by the lack of a detection technique that can measure its extremely small abundance at a reasonable sample size.

We present 81Kr and 39Ar dating of Antarctic and Tibetan ice cores with the detection method Atom Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA), using 5-10 kg of ice for 81Kr and 2-5 kg for 39Ar. Recent studies in Antarctica include 81Kr dating in ice cores from the Larsen Blue ice area, Talos Dome and Epica Dome C. Moreover, we have used 39Ar for dating an ice core from central Tibet covering the past 1500 years, in order to validate a previous timescale based on layer counting. The  studies demonstrate how 81Kr and 39Ar can provide age constraints and complement other methods in developing an ice core chronology. As the sample size requirement for 81Kr and 39Ar analysis still hinders its use in ice cores, developments on the ATTA systems are in progress to further decrease the sample size and increase the dating precision. Here, we present our latest advances towards 81Kr and 39Ar dating with ~ 1 kg of ice.

[1] Z.-T. Lu, et al. (2014) Tracer applications of noble gas radionuclides in the geosciences, Earth-Science Reviews 138, 196-214

[2] C. Buizert et al. (2014), Radiometric 81Kr dating identifies 120,000-year-old ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 6876

[3] L. Tian et al. (2019), 81Kr Dating at the Guliya Ice Cap, Tibetan Plateau, Geophysical Research Letters 46, 6636–6643

[4] Crotti I, et al. (2021) An extension of the TALDICE ice core age scale reaching back to MIS 10.1. Quaternary Science Reviews 266:107078

[5] Lee, G., et al. (2021) Chronostratigraphy of blue ice at the Larsen Glacier in Northern Victoria Land, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere Discuss. [in review]

How to cite: Ritterbusch, F., Crotti, I., Dong, X.-Z., Fourré, E., Gu, J.-Q., Jacob, R., Jiang, W., Landais, A., Lu, Z.-T., Orsi, A., Prié, F., Shao, L., Tian, L., Tong, A.-M., Yang, G.-M., and Wang, J.: Towards 81Kr and 39Ar dating with 1 kg of ice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9013, 2022.

EGU22-9210 | Presentations | CL1.2.5

A high-accuracy Total Air Content setup: System performance and first results from Skytrain Ice Rise, Antarctica 

Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Amy King, Helene Hoffmann, Mackenzie Grieman, Isobel Rowell, Jack Humby, Shaun Miller, Elizabeth Thomas, Thomas Bauska, Jochen Schmitt, Robert Mulvaney, and Eric Wolff

Some modelling studies and sea level reconstructions suggest the loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) about ~120’000 ago, but direct evidence for a collapse of the WAIS is lacking. The WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial (WACSWAIN) project aims at providing direct evidence allowing for a comprehensive assessment of whether or not the WAIS collapsed during the LIG. One of the expected consequences of such massive ice mass loss is the change of the elevation of land masses in close proximity of the WAIS due to isostatic adjustments. This process, together with changes in ice sheet thickness, may have altered the elevation of Skytrain Ice Rise above sea level on the order of 200 m. Such major changes in the elevation should be imprinted in the Total Air Content (TAC) based on simple barometric considerations. Here we present a new experimental setup of a high-accuracy, high-precision TAC measurement system constructed at the British Antarctic Survey. This setup is dedicated to and optimised for the measurement of TAC and is based on a vacuum extraction principle. The air is extracted from the ice by melting the sample by thermal radiation and the released air is dried and directly expanded into a 30-litre expansion chamber. State-of-the-art pressure gauges and thorough temperature control allow for an accuracy of 0.2% with a real ice reproducibility of 0.2% to 0.4% for 100 g and 30 g samples, respectively. Here, we discuss the performance of this new TAC system and present first TAC data from the Holocene section of the Skytrain Ice Core, Antarctica.

How to cite: Nehrbass-Ahles, C., King, A., Hoffmann, H., Grieman, M., Rowell, I., Humby, J., Miller, S., Thomas, E., Bauska, T., Schmitt, J., Mulvaney, R., and Wolff, E.: A high-accuracy Total Air Content setup: System performance and first results from Skytrain Ice Rise, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9210, 2022.

We have recorded consistent (but low) numbers and a diverse range of diatom taxa (siliceous algae) over a 400-year period in the RECAP ice core, drilled from the Renland ice cap on the east coast of Greenland. This is an exciting initial step in attempting a diatom-based environmental reconstruction for an Arctic ice core for the first time, since Greenland’s inland ice cores (e.g. NGRIP, GRIP) do not appear to contain diatoms in enough numbers. Our novel study investigated the period 1528 - 1940 AD (encompassing the Little Ice Age (LIA)) and we developed a method for extracting diatom taxa from the ice-core meltwater samples for identification. This was done by microscopy using standard taxonomic techniques. In summary, the RECAP LIA assemblage comprises 93 species, 36 genera and 11 families where Thalassiosira/Coscinodiscus, Aulocoseira, Pinnularia, Nitzschia, Luticola, Diadesmis, Staurosira, Achnanthidium, Psammothidium spp are the dominant genera. In this interval we found that Renland received air blown diatoms from both planktonic/benthic freshwater (80%) and planktonic marine (20%) sources. The freshwater species included aerophilic species (from damp environments), key indicators of exposed, environments and found widely in the Arctic. We observe that both total diatom numbers and species composition changes rapidly over time (i.e. decadal timescales), similar to other ice-core proxies, and with higher total numbers/yr between about 1780 and 1850 AD. Further analysis is required to establish a link to specific environmental variables, which could include aridity, wind strength or sea ice cover. We hypothesise that similar lower altitude, coastal ice cores from Greenland and Canada could be useful diatom repositories in the Arctic region.

How to cite: Cook, E., Jones, V., and Zhu, J.: Exploring the use of diatoms as a new environmental proxy in Arctic coastal ice cores - A first case study using the RECAP ice core, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9364, 2022.

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds play a critical role in the global climate system by modulating the upwelling and the transfer of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean. Since observations started, the core of the westerly wind belt has increased in strength and has contracted towards Antarctica. It has been proposed that these deviations are among the main drivers of the observed widespread warming in West Antarctica, threatening the stability of ice shelves, and ultimately contributing to global sea level rise.

 Over the last decades, it has been widely believed these atmospheric changes have occurred in response to recently increased greenhouse gas concentrations and ozone depletion. However, the lack of long-term wind records in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes hinders our ability to assess the wider context of the recently observed changes. This lack of a clear consistent timing limits our understanding of the causes of westerly wind changes and the roles they have played in driving recent environmental changes in Antarctica. Addressing these questions is crucial for future climate predictions.

 In this work, we present records of diatoms preserved in ice cores retrieved from the southern Antarctic Peninsula and the Ellsworth Land region. The diatom abundance and species assemblages from these ice cores prove to represent the regional variability in wind strength and circulation patterns that influence the onshore northerly winds. We use this novel proxy to produce an annual reconstruction of winds in the Pacific sector of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind belt over the last 140 years. This wind reconstruction allows exploring the link between the recent increase in wind strength, greenhouse gases and ozone depletion in the atmosphere

How to cite: Tetzner, D., Thomas, E., and Allen, C.: Diatoms in Ice Cores, a novel proxy for reconstructing past wind variability in the Pacific sector of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind belt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10952, 2022.

EGU22-1105 | Presentations | CL1.2.6 | Highlight

Learn from the mummies: water wise resilience and adaptation in Egypt along the Nile River. 

Francesca Casale, Flavia Fuso, Alessia Cecchetti, and Daniele Bocchiola

We preliminary investigate potential effects of climate change on Egypt water wise, and adaptation thereby based upon wisdom from the ancient Egyptians. Recent investigation linked socio-economic crises, and collapse events of ancient Egypt since 2200 BC to climate, e.g., droughts, and floods of the Nile, and heavy rainfalls in Northern Egypt. Dry, arid spells were associated to decrease of summer precipitation in the Ethiopian Highlands, while intensive rainfalls could be triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Here we couple climate, and hydrological modelling, with archaeological and historical investigation, to understand long-term adaptation to the ever-changing climate. We assess past climate of Egypt and consequent changing hydrology of the Nile, including situations of flood risk and food insecurity. We highlight a nexus between changing in climate and hydrology, conflicts, and social disorders.

We tune the Poli-Hydro model for Nile River basin for the XX century, and then use it to simulate future scenarios under climate change projections from six GCMs, of the AR6 of IPCC. We compare future scenarios of climate, and hydrology against past climates patterns. We analyse typical adaptation patterns as from the history of ancient Egypt (e.g. changes of diet, irrigation and cropping strategies, etc.), and we discuss their application for adaption to future climate. Our work may provide a tool to build upon past resilience/adaptation strategies, to conceive viable countermeasures to future climate change here, and in similarly arid areas, to counteract potential food insecurity, flood risk, and conflicts.

How to cite: Casale, F., Fuso, F., Cecchetti, A., and Bocchiola, D.: Learn from the mummies: water wise resilience and adaptation in Egypt along the Nile River., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1105, 2022.

In order to improve the climate reconstruction quality and better understand last millennium temperature variability, a reservoir computing (RC) method: Echo State Network (ESN) is applied for the reconstruction of the North Hemisphere summer seasonal temperature. ESN, a specialized type of recurrent neural network method, belongs to the family of machine learning methods, which is suitable for mapping complex systems with chaotic dynamics, for instance the hemisphere temperature variability. ESN is the widely implementation of RC and employs a structure with neuron-like nodes and recurrent connections, the internal reservoir, to handle the sequential data. It consists of three layers: input layer, reservoir layer and output layer; a randomly generated reservoir in ESN preserves a set of nonlinear transformations of the input data and a linear regression criterion is employed for its training process to optimize the parameters. ESN could provide an alternative nonlinear machine learning method that might improve the prediction or reconstruction skills of paleoclimate. In this context, we first conduct pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) using three different Earth System Models (ESM), including Community Climate System Model CCSM4, the Max-Planck-Institute climate model MPI-ESM-P and the Community Earth System Model CESM1-CAM5. Two classical multivariable linear regression methods, Principal component regression and Canonical correlation analysis, are also employed as a benchmark. Among the three models providing climate simulations of the past millennium, both derived spatial and temporal reconstruction results based on PPEs demonstrate that ESN could capture more variance than other two classical methods, and could potentially achieve paleo-temperature reconstruction improvements. This suggests that the ESN machine learning method could be an alternative method for paleoclimate analysis.

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Wagner, S., and Zorita, E.: Reconstructions of North Hemisphere summer temperature based on tree-ring proxies using linear and machine learning methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1491, 2022.

EGU22-1525 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Contribution of climate variability, land-use and Southern Ocean dynamics to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the past two millennia 

Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Victor Brovkin, François Klein, Katrin Meissner, Laurie Menviel, and Anne Mouchet

By performing an ensemble of sensitivity experiments with the LOVECLIM model, we confirm the earlier results showing that temperature changes had a large influence on the land carbon cycle over the preindustrial Common Era. However, this process alone cannot explain the magnitude of the reconstructed atmospheric CO2 and δ13CO2 variations. In particular, even when the model is constrained to follow reconstructed temperature changes by data assimilation, and when applying relatively large values of the climate-carbon feedback parameter, it can only explain about 50% of the atmospheric CO2 decrease between the 12th and the 17th century. We find that land use changes are likely responsible for most of the observed long term atmospheric CO2 trend over the first millennium of the Common Era, and for up to 30 % of the decrease observed after 1600 CE. In addition, in our experiments, changes in southern hemisphere westerly winds induce slightly smaller changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations than those associated with land use change, and variations in δ13CO2 of the same order of magnitude as the observed ones. Those wind changes also have a strong impact on the difference in 14C between the northern and southern hemisphere, presenting strong similarities with observed changes. Combining the effects of changes in temperature, land use and winds over the Southern Ocean provides a reasonable agreement with reconstructions for atmospheric CO2 concentrations and δ13CO2, especially for the low CO2 values observed during the 17th century. This underlines the important contribution of both land and ocean carbon processes. Nevertheless, some uncertainties remain on the origin of the relatively high CO2 concentrations reconstructed during the 11th and 16th centuries.

How to cite: Goosse, H., Barriat, P.-Y., Brovkin, V., Klein, F., Meissner, K., Menviel, L., and Mouchet, A.: Contribution of climate variability, land-use and Southern Ocean dynamics to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the past two millennia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1525, 2022.

EGU22-1838 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Arctic Warming: A Perspective from the Underground 

Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Fernando Jaume-Santero, and Stephan Gruber

The thermal regime of the Arctic subsurface is important, for example, in the context of greenhouse-gas release from thawing permafrost soils. Measurements of Arctic subsurface temperatures, however, are scarce and limited in time, with virtually no observations over climatological time scales. We address this gap in knowledge by estimating the long-term evolution of subsurface temperatures in the Arctic (north of 60ºN) since 1600 Common Era (CE) to the present using 110 deep subsurface temperature profiles. The Arctic subsurface has warmed by 1.7±0.8 ºC during 1970-2000 CE. These estimates are conservative, as the effects of latent heat are not included in the analysis. Although there are significant spatial variations, the Arctic subsurface is warming faster than the global land surface and subsurface (1.2±0.2 ºC) during the same period. Uncertainties in this analysis arise mostly from deficient knowledge about the subsurface physical properties and limited data coverage.

How to cite: Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Beltrami, H., García-García, A., Jaume-Santero, F., and Gruber, S.: Arctic Warming: A Perspective from the Underground, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1838, 2022.

EGU22-2059 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Precipitation trends in Southern South America in the last centuries: attribution and mechanisms 

Leandro Baltasar Diaz and Carolina Susana Vera

Southern South America (SSA) is one of the regions of the world where the largest trends in precipitation have been recorded during the last 120 years. While South-Eastern South America (SESA) has been affected by a noticeable increase in austral summer rainfall, a remarkable decrease has been observed in Southern Andes (SAn). Moreover, long-term precipitacion has been registered in subtropical Andes and Altiplano regions, which show wetter periods during the 17th century in the Little Ice Age (LIA) and dryer periods during the current Global Warming Period (GWP). In spite of the large impacts related to these trends, the attribution of them is still an open-question. 

This work will assess the attribution of the observed austral summer rainfall trends in SSA to anthropogenic and natural forcings using models available in World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6). Analysed experiments include Historical, Pre-Industrial Control and Last Millennium simulations to study long-term changes, as well as the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) to assess the attribution of last-century trends. 

The assessment of the Last Millennium simulations allows to detect the following changes in LIA (GWP): (a) equatorwards (polewards) displacement of the southern branch of the Hadley cell, in turn associated with wetter (drier) conditions in subtropical south America; (b) negative (positive) upper-level zonal wind changes related with positive (negative) December, January and February (DJF) rainfall changes in the Altiplano; and (c) positive (negative) low-level zonal wind changes associated to positive (negative) JJA rainfall changes in the subtropical Andes, being in turn related to hemispheric wind changes resembling a negative (positive) phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The last century changes in the Altiplano reveal a signal associated with the anthropogenic forcing in upper-level zonal wind trends, but it is weak as compared with the internal climate variability. 

Regarding last century trends, positive (negative) rainfall trends in SESA (SAn) are identified in most historical simulations. For both regions, greenhouse-gases-forcing-only simulations show trends consistent with all-forcing simulations, while natural-forcing-only simulations exhibit negligible values. SESA (SAn) shows negative (negligible) trends associated with aerosol-forcing-only simulations and high uncertainty (negative trends) for stratospheric-ozone-forcing-only simulations. Moreover, SAn rainfall trends could be also connected to consistent trends of opposite sign for the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Overall, our results provide evidence for anthropogenic influences on SSA rainfall trends.

How to cite: Diaz, L. B. and Vera, C. S.: Precipitation trends in Southern South America in the last centuries: attribution and mechanisms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2059, 2022.

EGU22-3061 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Analyzing the continent-ocean relationship in the centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variability over the past 2000 years 

Zhiqiang Lyu, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Xavier Crosta, and Johan Etourneau

Reconstructions of Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) covering the past two millennia include some large centennial variabilities that are still not well understood because of the model-data discrepancies. Paleoenvironmental and instrumental observations have highlighted strong interconnections in the Antarctic climate system as illustrated by close relationships between atmosphere and ocean (including sea ice) at all time scales. For instance, over past decades, the Amundsen Sea Low pressure (ASL) is associated with opposite regional sea ice changes in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen and Ross sea sector as well as with variations in snow accumulation over West Antarctica. This inspires us to explore the potentiality of better reconstructing and understanding the drivers of the centennial-scale variability of Antarctic SAT during the Common Era by taking advantage of those links between the Antarctic continental and the Southern Ocean data. To this end, we have compiled proxy-based sea surface temperature reconstructions for the Southern Ocean and qualitative sea-ice reconstructions around Antarctica, together with those having published ice-core based water isotopic and snow accumulation records. We first analyze the continent-ocean relationships by constraining the climate model with continental records through a data assimilation procedure. Results show that we are able to generally reproduce reconstructed variations in the Southern Ocean at centennial scale, particularly for sea surface temperature (SST) along the south Chilean coast and sea ice along the Antarctic Peninsula. In a second step, experiments with data assimilation combining both oceanic and continental records help us to determine how the inclusion of oceanic records improves the reconstruction of the SAT, atmospheric circulation, and sea ice (and SST) over the past two millennia in the high latitudes.

 

 

How to cite: Lyu, Z., Goosse, H., Dalaiden, Q., Crosta, X., and Etourneau, J.: Analyzing the continent-ocean relationship in the centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variability over the past 2000 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3061, 2022.

EGU22-3331 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

800 years of summer European-North Atlantic jet stream variability and its impact on climate extremes and human systems 

Guobao Xu, Ellie Broadman, Matthew Meko, Lara Klippel, Francis Ludlow, Isabel Dorado-Liñan, Jan Esper, and Valerie Trouet

Climate extremes over the mid-latitudes are driven by a combination of thermodynamical and dynamical factors. In Europe, the primary dynamical driver of summer climate extremes is the position of the jet stream over the Europe-North Atlantic (EU) region. In certain configurations, the EU jet creates a summer climate dipole between northwestern and southeastern Europe that can result in contrasting extreme weather conditions in the two regions. To study long-term variability in the EU jet configuration, as well as its potential impact on past climate extremes and human systems, we have reconstructed EU jet variability over the past 800+ years (1200-2005 CE). To accomplish this, we have combined five European tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct the July-August jet stream latitude for the EU domain (30°W - 40°E; EU JSL). Our reconstruction explains 40% of summer EU JSL variability over the instrumental period (1948-2005 CE) with strong skill.

We find that, over the past 800 years, opposite phases of EU JSL variability have consistently resulted in contrasting climate extremes, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires, between northwestern Europe, specifically the British Isles, and southeastern Europe, specifically the Balkans and Italy. This EU JSL-driven summer climate dipole is captured in a network of historical documentary data that further document the societal impacts of EU JSL-related climate extremes on both sides of the dipole.

Our summer EU JSL reconstruction shows a century-long negative phase from ca. 1355-1450 CE, corresponding to anomalously wet and cool summers over the British Isles and dry and hot conditions over the Balkans. This negative phase is comparable to the recent (1970-present) EU JSL configuration. We also found a positive phase, with opposite summer climate dipole conditions, from ca. 1812-1861 CE. Our results thus suggest that the EU JSL has been a long-term primary driver of the European summer climate dipole, as well as of the associated climate extremes and societal impacts.

How to cite: Xu, G., Broadman, E., Meko, M., Klippel, L., Ludlow, F., Dorado-Liñan, I., Esper, J., and Trouet, V.: 800 years of summer European-North Atlantic jet stream variability and its impact on climate extremes and human systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3331, 2022.

EGU22-4140 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Temporal variability in central European climate reconstructions, 1501–2020 CE, and its attribution 

Jiří Mikšovský, Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný, Petr Pišoft, Miroslav Trnka, Martin Možný, and Jan Balek

Despite their pivotal role in climate research, direct instrumental records of meteorological variables are only available for the most recent part of climate history. Even in regions with longest tradition of weather measurements, such as central Europe, the existing series rarely comprise more than two centuries of reliable data. However, documentary sources, both quantitative and qualitative, can be employed to substantially extend the available records. Using the resulting multi-centennial data, previously unexplored features of climate system’s evolution can then be studied.

In this analysis, temporal variability in annual and seasonal series of temperature, precipitation and drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index - SPI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index - SPEI, Z-index), pertaining to the territory of contemporary Czechia, has been studied over the 1501–2020 CE period. The series under investigation were reconstructed from multitude of Czech documentary data sources, combined with instrumental observations. Phenoclimatic temperature and SPEI reconstructions, derived from historical records of cereal and grape harvest dates, were also employed and compared to their documentary-based counterparts.

Statistical attribution analysis, utilizing multiple linear regression, confirmed the influence of covariates related to volcanic activity (prompting temporary temperature decreases, especially during summer) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (influential in all seasons except summer for all target variables) in the Czech climate reconstructions. Statistically significant components correlated with multidecadal variability in the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific (represented by multiproxy-reconstructed AMO and PDO indices) were identified in the Czech temperature and precipitation series as well as in all drought indices. Additionally, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis, notable oscillations shared by the AMO/PDO variations and the Czech climate series were found, particularly at periods of approximately 70–100 years.

How to cite: Mikšovský, J., Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Pišoft, P., Trnka, M., Možný, M., and Balek, J.: Temporal variability in central European climate reconstructions, 1501–2020 CE, and its attribution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4140, 2022.

EGU22-5745 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Reconstruction of intermediate water temperature in the tropical North Atlantic since the Little Ice Age using cold-water corals 

Qian Liu, Laura F. Robinson, Erica Hendy, Si-Yuan Sean Chen, Joseph A. Stewart, Timothy Knowles, Tao Li, and Ana Samperiz Vizcaino

Long-lived colonial cold-water corals have the potential to provide robust continuous archives of environmental change. These high-resolution records of the subsurface ocean are particularly valuable, especially at understudied intermediate water depths. Yet, to understand the anthropogenic impacts on the sub-surface ocean and better predict future changes, it is critical to establish the natural variation of temperature and circulation of the ocean system prior to the Industrial Revolution.

Here we combine temperature proxy and radiocarbon data from specimens of two taxa of cold-water coral that grew in intermediate water depths (~1500 m) in the tropical North Atlantic. In 2013, specimens of the bamboo coral Lepidisis spp. and scleractinian coral Enallopsammia rostrata were collected from sites currently situated in the boundary of North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water to reconstruct the temperature and circulation history of the region. We demonstrate that bamboo corals can be used to reconstruct ambient seawater radiocarbon content when independently dated by organic node annual band counting. Radiocarbon was also analysed in Enallopsammia rostrata to develop age models for both the radial section and from discrete corallites (polyps) along a branch. Dating results show that this coral is about 500 years old, allowing us to generate a temperature record as far back as the Little Ice Age. Trace metal ratios were analysed along the growth axis of the coral, and the Li/Mg ratio was used as a temperature proxy. We find that the Li/Mg derived temperature of the most recent polyps is consistent with modern ambient temperature. The overall temperature record shows a general increasing trend since the Little Ice Age, while the radiocarbon record indicates no significant change until the late 20th century. Combining these records allows us to reconstruct potential ocean circulation changes in the central tropical North Atlantic over last 500 years.

How to cite: Liu, Q., Robinson, L. F., Hendy, E., Chen, S.-Y. S., Stewart, J. A., Knowles, T., Li, T., and Samperiz Vizcaino, A.: Reconstruction of intermediate water temperature in the tropical North Atlantic since the Little Ice Age using cold-water corals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5745, 2022.

EGU22-6632 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Climate and environmental changes over the last 2000 years in the Serra da Estrela, Portugal. 

Ricardo N. Santos, Teresa Rodrigues, Enno Schefuß, Lívia G.M.S. Cordeiro, Filipa Naughton, Dulce Oliveira, Armand Hernández, and Alexandre M. Ramos

The compound-specific signal of leaf wax n-alkanes can be used for reconstructing climatic and environmental changes. This work assesses the carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of sedimentary n-alkanes from a high-mountain lake record (Lake Peixão) in Serra da Estrela (Western Iberia, Portugal) over the last 2000 years.

Our interpretations are supported by the modern settings of the lake and the long-chain n-alkanes characterization of the modern vegetation in the lake’s watershed. The δ13C signal of long-chain n-alkanes (C29 – C33) suggests that terrestrial vegetation, dominated by C3 heathlands and grass mosaics, did not change significantly since the last 2000 years. In contrast, δ13C signatures of C25 and C27, associated with aquatic plants inputs, reveal a more enriched and variable signal, suggesting these compounds as indicators of water availability in the studied area.  In this high-altitude setting, temperature significantly controls water availability and the δD signal of terrestrial plants (δDterr), which shows major changes across the last 2000 years. In contrast, aquatic-derived n-alkanes (δDaq) show a relatively constant and stable water source. These data enabled us to detect major climate shifts in the region and evaluate the role of the main drivers (solar activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation-NAO) in those long-term changes prior to intense human activities.

The Roman Period (0 – 500 AD) was relatively dry but shifting from a warm to a cold phase, under a predominant positive mode of NAO and a Grand solar maxima. From the Dark Ages until the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (500 – 1300 AD), the climate was generally mild and wet under a nonstationary mode of NAO and a gradual decrease in solar irradiance. The LIA (ca. 1350 – 1850 AD) was composed by two main phases: the first cold and wet followed by an extreme cold episode; both under a predominantly negative NAO mode. The extreme cooling (centered at 1700 AD), coincident with the Maunder Minimum, was driven by the southward displacement of the polar front, causing extended periods of ice cover on the lake. The climate became warm and dry since 1880 AD, coinciding decrease in vegetation capability to buffer the runoff energy and promote the observed high sedimentation rate during this period, probably due to increased anthropogenic impact.  This work also underlines the sensitive nature of the high-mountain lake ecosystems and contributes to the spatial coverage of paleoclimate studies in the Atlantic region of the Iberian Peninsula.

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the financial support of this work through the projects: HOLMODRIVE—North Atlantic Atmospheric Patterns Influence on Western Iberia Climate: From the Late Glacial to the Present (PTDC/CTA-GEO/29029/2017). WarmWorld—Features, and lessons from Past Interglacials “warm periods” during the last 1.5 Ma (PTDC/CTA-GEO/29897/2017). RNS´s grant supported by Ultimatum—Understanding past climatic instabilities in the North Atlantic Region (IF/01489/2015) 

How to cite: N. Santos, R., Rodrigues, T., Schefuß, E., G.M.S. Cordeiro, L., Naughton, F., Oliveira, D., Hernández, A., and M. Ramos, A.: Climate and environmental changes over the last 2000 years in the Serra da Estrela, Portugal., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6632, 2022.

EGU22-6688 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Announcing Phase 4 of PAGES 2k: Hydroclimate of the Common Era 

Benjamin Henley, Sarah Eggleston, Nikita Kaushal, Alyssa Atwood, Oliver Bothe, Georgy Falster, Matthew Jones, Lukas Jonkers, Bronwen Konecky, Hans Linderholm, Belen Martrat, Helen McGregor, Anais Orsi, Steven Phipps, and Hussein Sayani

Understanding the climate of the past two millennia (2k) remains vital for developing our wider comprehension of the climate system, including the nature and scale of recent and future anthropogenic change. Phase 4 of the PAGES 2k network will build on previous phases and take us to a new level of understanding and science-policy integration.

During previous phases, PAGES 2k members compiled global networks of proxy measurements, extending records beyond the instrumental period by more than an order of magnitude, reconstructing past climate and developing new knowledge of past variability and processes. Through data-model integration with state-of-the-art Earth systems models, proxy system modelling and data assimilation, we took key steps towards a more comprehensive understanding of climate dynamics.

Phase 4 will take us even further, challenging our community to turn its focus primarily towards the hydroclimate of the Common Era: performing new reconstructions and improving the interoperability, extent and scope of our data and model products. In doing so, we also seek to facilitate the translation of our science into evidence-based policy outcomes. Our overarching aim is to reconstruct hydroclimate variability over the Common Era from local to global spatial scales, at sub-annual to multi-centennial time scales. We propose to achieve this through new community-led data curation efforts and the development of new data-driven tools and practices to maximise the interoperability of convenient, efficient and widespread model/data products. We will aim for a process-level understanding of past hydroclimate events and variability by evaluating and constraining Earth system models and through data assimilation.

Our coordination team places a strong emphasis on respect and inclusion, aiming to foster a diverse and equitable community. Through a ‘hub and spoke’ structure, our team will provide a facilitation, coordination and support role (the hub) for Pages 2k working groups (the spokes). We are actively seeking participation of those engaging in climate policy and climate services. Welcome to Phase 4!  We warmly invite your collaborations and contributions! 

How to cite: Henley, B., Eggleston, S., Kaushal, N., Atwood, A., Bothe, O., Falster, G., Jones, M., Jonkers, L., Konecky, B., Linderholm, H., Martrat, B., McGregor, H., Orsi, A., Phipps, S., and Sayani, H.: Announcing Phase 4 of PAGES 2k: Hydroclimate of the Common Era, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6688, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6688, 2022.

Asten and McCracken (AGU 2021, paper H45Z-12) note strong ~85 and ~50 year periodicities in flood data and lake level data in NSW, south-east Australia.  We now compare data sets for the Brahmaputra River (latitude 25⁰N) 1800-2000CE with Lake George (latitude 35⁰S)  levels 1820-2020CE.  Both data sets show a pair of dominant spectral maxima at 80 and 50 year periods.

A study by Rao et al (2020) of observed and reconstructed discharge of the Brahmaputra shows only limited correlation of discharge rates with recorded floods.  We use a record of Oceanic Nino Index 1870-2021CE (McNoldy, 2021) to compare with floods and find that for time 1875-2010, 14 of 17 observed floods associate with La Nina events. However there were 27 La Nina events in this interval hence as a working hypothesis LaNina events are close to being a necessary condition (~82%) for floods but not a sole determinant. We use spectral analysis to locate multi-decadal natural cycles which also influence discharge levels and flood frequency.

The Brahmaputra discharge rate data extends back to year 1309CE (Rao et al, 2020).  The power spectrum   shows a series of strong maxima, especially at 242, 132, 90, &75year periods similar to those in 14C and 10Be records for the Holocene.  The entire record can be fitted using a model of 8 sinusoids, leaving only a 20% residual variance.  The model allows extrapolation of the discharge rate into the future and predicts an above-average discharge for years 1995-2040CE, peaking ~2020.  This predicted time-span of above-average discharge is based on natural frequencies embedded in the record and does not include any possible influences from 21st-century global warming.  The prediction appears closer to the observed increase post-2000, than does a prediction based on CMIP5 models as provided in the Rao etal (2020) paper.

A further test of the efficacy of the discharge curve fitting method is provided by limiting the observed data to years 1309-1900CE, then projecting the model to 2200.  The projected curve from 1900 replicates the observed dry period 1950-1995 and validates the hypothesis that the dry period was not an unusual event but was part of the natural cycles as reconstructed since 1309.  The projected curve from 1900 also closely follows the model based on all data to 2010 in predicting the above-average discharge rates 1995-2040.

  As noted above both data sets show a pair of dominant spectral maxima at 80 and 50year periods. The similarity between the spectra invites a hypothesis that the long-period natural cycles at both locations have a common origin, possibly solar-related rather than being of local atmospheric/oceanic origin.  A key difference is that the phases of the spectral maxima are reversed for the two sites.  Physical mechanisms producing these dominant periods for the 19th and 20th centuries, and the phase difference between the northern and southern hemisphere sites are not yet known. They could be related to variations in solar insolation, cosmic-ray ionization of cloud cover, or mode changes in global ocean current systems driven by unknown external forcing.

How to cite: Asten, M. and McCracken, K.: The Gleissberg (~85 year) and other periodicities in the flood cycles of the Brahmaputra River past present and future; implications for possible global mechanisms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8090, 2022.

EGU22-9547 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Disentangling Internal and External Contribution to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability over Past Millennium 

Shih-Wei Fang, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, and Johann Jungclaus

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) modulates the North Atlantic surface ocean variability and affects decadal climate evolution up to the global scale; however, the underlying mechanisms of the AMV remains debated. We use a multi-model ensemble of transient past-millennium and unperturbed preindustrial control simulations contributing to the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase 4 (PMIP4) to decompose the AMV signal into its internal and external components. The internal component of AMV exhibits no robust behavior across simulations during periods of major forcing such as strong volcanic eruptions, whereas the externally-forced component of AMV responds to volcanic eruptions with an immediate radiative cooling followed, in some simulations, by a sequence of damped multidecadal oscillations. This indicates that the intrinsic mechanism underlying the AMV is distinguishable from its response to external forcing. The internal component of AMV is tightly connected with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and controls the variations of AMV. The external component of AMV explains about 25% of the variance in the past millennium simulations, though less-consistency is found between models. Our results further indicate that the spatial imprint of external volcanic forcing on North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures differs from the surface pattern of the internal AMV contributing to the lack of robustness for the AMV pattern.

How to cite: Fang, S.-W., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Zanchettin, D., and Jungclaus, J.: Disentangling Internal and External Contribution to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability over Past Millennium, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9547, 2022.

EGU22-9639 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Novel Cold Season Temperature Field Reconstructions for the Northern Midlatitudes from Phenological Data 

Angela-Maria Burgdorf, Stefan Brönnimann, Lukas Reichen, Jörg Franke, Ralf Hand, Veronika Valler, Eric Samakinwa, Yuri Burgnara, and This Rutishauser

Annual-to-decadal variability in northern midlatitude temperature is predominantly dominated by the cold season. However, climate field reconstructions, which are essential for understanding the underlying mechanisms, are often based on tree rings. These mainly represent the growing season and allow limited insight on cold season effects. Plant and ice phenology data, on the other hand, are a rich source of cold season information that remains largely overlooked in climate reconstructions to date and could help to fill the seasonal gap. Here, we present Northern Hemispheric temperature field reconstructions for the extended cold season (October-to-May average) for 1701-1905 based entirely on phenological data. Time series of freezing and thawing dates of rivers together with a few early-spring plant observations covering a large area of the northern midlatitudes are used in a simple data assimilation framework.
The reconstructions allow a 320-yr perspective of climate variability and change of boreal cold season climate and unveil that the temperature of the northern midlatitude land areas exceeded the variability range of the 18th and 19th centuries by the 1940s, to which recent warming has added another 1.5 °C. We also find 5-10 year long sequences of cold northern midlatitude winters. The most prominent example lasted from 1808/9 to 1815/6. The conspicuously cooling during that period is associated with two volcanic eruptions (1808/9 and 1815), which caused cooling as a direct effect. The years between the eruptions are characterized by weak southwesterly atmospheric flow over the Atlantic-European sector in early winter. This lead to low Eurasian temperatures, which persisted into spring while the flow pattern did not. Twentieth century data and model simulations confirm this persistence and point to increased snow cover as a cause. This is consistent with independent information on Eurasian snow in the early 19th century.

How to cite: Burgdorf, A.-M., Brönnimann, S., Reichen, L., Franke, J., Hand, R., Valler, V., Samakinwa, E., Burgnara, Y., and Rutishauser, T.: Novel Cold Season Temperature Field Reconstructions for the Northern Midlatitudes from Phenological Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9639, 2022.

EGU22-10775 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Holocene climate variability in south east Australia; inferred from oxygen isotopes in sedimentary cellulose at Lake Surprise, Victoria. 

Asika Dharmarathna, Jonathan Tyler, Cameron Barr, John Tibby, Matthew Jones, Martin Ankor, Haidee Cadd, Patricia Gadd, Quan Hua, David Child, Atun Zawadski, Michael Hotchkis, and Bernd Zolitschka

South east Australia experienced periods of multi-year droughts particularly within the last 2 millennia. However, given the limited evidence from smaller number of sites and scarcity of  quantitative, high-resolution climate records, it is largely unknown whether these droughts are a feature of climate through the Holocene and the extent to which they are experienced throughout the region. Where conditions are suitable, oxygen isotopes preserved in lake sediments are a useful tool for reconstructing past climate and environmental conditions. Here, we present preliminary results of a Holocene length record from Lake Surprise in western Victoria, from which we analysed δ18O of aquatic cellulose as a proxy for lake-water δ18O, complemented by organic carbon/nitrogen ratios, organic carbon isotopes and XRF (ITRAX) inferred elemental composition. Our interpretation of the palaeo-data is supported by ~3 monthly monitoring of water and sediment geochemistry to track the modern hydrology of the lake. Our preliminary results show a strong positive correlation between precipitation and sedimentary calcium (carbonate deposition) over the last 150 years, likely linked to changes in primary productivity. The aquatic cellulose δ18O record through Holocene is also correlated with carbonate concentration, reinforcing our interpretation of CaCO3 deposition in the lake during wet periods. The cellulose δ18O record indicates a trend of gradually increasing aridity from early to late Holocene, with a notable extremely dry phase over the last 2 ka. Comparison of the cellulose δ18O record with high-resolution Holocene climate records indicates that multiple climate drivers such as ENSO intensification and Antarctic warming are strongly linked to increasing aridity of the region. Further work will focus on both increasing the resolution of the record to better identify the frequency and duration of key events and on quantifying natural hydroclimate variability, particularly via lake hydrologic modelling to better constrain the paleoclimate record.

How to cite: Dharmarathna, A., Tyler, J., Barr, C., Tibby, J., Jones, M., Ankor, M., Cadd, H., Gadd, P., Hua, Q., Child, D., Zawadski, A., Hotchkis, M., and Zolitschka, B.: Holocene climate variability in south east Australia; inferred from oxygen isotopes in sedimentary cellulose at Lake Surprise, Victoria., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10775, 2022.

EGU22-10958 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Diverse Arctic Oscillation responses after volcanic eruptions at different latitudes during the last millennium 

Seungmok Paik, Seung-Ki Min, Seok-Woo Son, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug, and Sang-Wook Yeh

This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of climate responses to volcanic eruptions occurred at different latitudes considering the last millennium volcanic eruptions available from Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations. Especially, we examine how different eruption latitudes induce the different responses in Arctic Oscillation (AO) with polar vortex and thereby exert different influences on northern Eurasian climate. We classify volcanic eruptions as tropical, northern and southern eruptions based on hemispheric aerosol loading ratios, which have different meridional structure of solar radiation perturbations and cause asymmetric climate response patterns between hemispheres, including tropospheric cooling and lower stratospheric warming. Volcanic eruptions found to cause stronger stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres with varying magnitudes depending on eruption latitudes. Following the tropical and southern eruptions, polar vortex enhancement is found in both hemispheric polar regions due to enhanced pole-to-equator temperature gradient and equatorward propagation of planetary waves. As a result of boreal winter averaged polar vortex enhancement, the tropical and southern eruptions found to cause more probability to occur at least the pentad strong polar vortex events during the boreal winter, which leads tropospheric westerly wind anomalies after a few days to the events. As a result, positive AO-like responses emerge at the lower troposphere. The positive AO induces surface air temperature warming as well as precipitation increase over the northern Eurasian continental regions. Following southern eruptions, the AO, Eurasian warming and wetting responses are much more extended to more southward (NH mid-latitudes) due to the more equatorward extended polar vortex variation. On the other hand, the Arctic polar vortex and the associated surface responses are only weakly influenced by the northern eruptions, in line with much poleward spread of volcanic aerosols and lesser equatorward extended planetary wave propagation in the lower stratosphere. These results suggest that while volcanic eruptions modulate surface climate by strengthening the polar vortex, their impacts are dependent on the eruption latitudes.

How to cite: Paik, S., Min, S.-K., Son, S.-W., An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., and Yeh, S.-W.: Diverse Arctic Oscillation responses after volcanic eruptions at different latitudes during the last millennium, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10958, 2022.

EGU22-11624 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Winter climatic conditions in Western Carpathian Mountains (Eastern Europe) during last millenium 

Carmen-Andreea Badaluta and Aurel Persoiu

The aim of this study is to reconstruct winter climatic conditions during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and LIA (Little Ice Age) based on the stable isotopes analyses on two parallel ice cores extracted from Scărișoara Ice Cave, Romania. Based on the analysis of δ18O data we identified two distinct periods: a warm Medieval Warm Period, (MWP, between AD 850 and 1250) and a cold the Little Ice Age (LIA, between AD 1450 and 1860), separated by a transition period (between AD 1250 and 1450). Further, deuterium excess (d-excess, d = δ2H-8*δ18O) indicates that during the MWP, air masses were predominantly originating from a dry source between AD 890 and 1000 (likely the Mediterranean Sea) and a generally wet source after ca. AD 1000 (likely, the Atlantic Ocean and/or the Western Mediterranean Sea). During the Transition Period both air temperature and moisture sources had major fluctuations. During the early LIA,  winters were generally cold and humid, while in the second half, winters were cold and dry. Ice accumulation rates, which are the result of winter accumulation and summer ablation, varied widely during the last 1000 years, with strong melting occurring during periods of increased summer rains and/or reduced winter accumulation. Comparing our data with summer climate reconstructions from the same region suggest that both the warm MWP and the cold LIA were predominantly feature of winter climate variability, summer temperatures being much stable during the last millennium.

How to cite: Badaluta, C.-A. and Persoiu, A.: Winter climatic conditions in Western Carpathian Mountains (Eastern Europe) during last millenium, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11624, 2022.

EGU22-11664 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice reconstruction for historical AGCM simulations 

Eric Samakinwa, Veronika Valler, Ralf Hand, and Stefan Brönnimann

We present a 50-member global monthly gridded Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) dataset covering 850 years (1000–1849). The SST fields are based on an existing coarse-resolution ensemble of annual reconstructions and augmented with intra-annual and sub-grid scale variability, such that the annual means of the coarse resolution SST reconstructions are preserved. We utilize a large body of historical observational inputs from ICOADS (1780 – 1849) in an offline data assimilation approach.

Furthermore, the best sea ice analogs are selected based on a measure of similarity between subpolar and midlatitude SSTs of our reconstruction and HadISST SIC. The resulting SST and SIC fields will reflect a spatially and temporal consistent representation of the historical state of the ocean and are reconstructed to be used as forcing for AGCM simulations.

Reference:

Samakinwa, E., Valler, V., Hand, R. et al. An ensemble reconstruction of global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration 1000–1849. Sci Data 8, 261 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01043-1

How to cite: Samakinwa, E., Valler, V., Hand, R., and Brönnimann, S.: Global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice reconstruction for historical AGCM simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11664, 2022.

EGU22-12340 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Climatic impacts on early modern European grain harvest yields 

Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Bo Christiansen, Jan Esper, Heli Huhtamaa, Lotta Leijonhufvud, Andrea Seim, Martin Karl Skoglund, and Peter Thejll

We assess, within a framework of consistent statistical analysis, the inter-annual temperature and hydroclimate signal on grain harvest yields across diverse environmental settings of Europe during the early modern period (c. 1500–1800). To this end, we consider both different grain types and various climate parameters. We go beyond previous studies by applying identical analyses to several regions, by using a larger number of grain yield and harvest records, and by employing a more extensive and diverse set of the latest generation of annually resolved palaeoclimate reconstructions and early instrumental datasets. Hitherto, regional inter-comparisons of historical climate–yield relationships have been constrained by the application of different data and statistical methods. We pay particular attention to the issue of statistical significance in the presence of strong auto-correlation in both the harvest and climate data. Our analyses also consider various seasonal targets, crop types, frequency bands, and lagged harvest responses to climate. Overall, a comparatively weak climate–yield relationship is found, which is consistent with modern observations, as opposed to a strong climate signal we previously have found embedded in early modern grain price data.

How to cite: Charpentier Ljungqvist, F., Christiansen, B., Esper, J., Huhtamaa, H., Leijonhufvud, L., Seim, A., Skoglund, M. K., and Thejll, P.: Climatic impacts on early modern European grain harvest yields, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12340, 2022.

As they are not directly calibrated with meteorological series, underground temperature-depth profiles provide potentially useful constraints on past climate evolution. However, the global geothermal-climate dataset is spatially clustered and is based on measurements that span nearly 60 years.  Little information is available concerning uncertainties in measurements or site conditions which could impart non-climatic signals. Furthermore, the inversion for past temperatures is ill-posed meaning that solutions are non-unique and are sensitive to these uncertainties and to noise.

We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct climate from the global geothermal dataset. We employ a transdimensional formulation that tailors the inferred resolution of the temperature history in each location to the measurements. This avoids over-fitting through the inherent parsimony of Bayesian formulations. Additionally, we do not make any fixed assumptions about observational noise or a priori uncertainties. Instead, these are jointly inferred using a hierarchical setup.

When applied to 1012 profiles our method shows a long-term warming over the Northern Hemisphere in agreement with earlier studies. In the Southern Hemisphere recent warming follows an inferred period of stable temperatures from CE 1500-1800. Sensitivity tests show that these results are robust to choices of hyperpriors but that hard-wiring the level of observational noise influences the inferred amplitude of pre-20th Century warming over the Northern Hemisphere.

How to cite: Hopcroft, P. and Gallagher, K.: Past hemispheric temperature variations from a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of the global geothermal dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12595, 2022.

EGU22-12598 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

Enhanced meltwater discharge and water mass evolution in Southwest Greenland since the end of the Little Ice Age 

Yun-Ju Sun, Laura Robinson, Ian Parkinson, Joseph Stewart, Maria Luiza de Carvalho Ferreira, and Katharine Hendry

The Arctic region is noted to be sensitive in its response to anthropogenic warming. The Greenland Ice Sheet is experiencing accelerated mass loss via surface melting and ice discharge. This freshwater input is likely to influence global heat distribution via the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To better understand past natural variations in this system, proxy reconstructions are required to give a longer-term perspective. Previous proxy studies have suggested that human-induced AMOC slowdown began as early as the nineteenth century. However, the lack of high temporal resolution data from the last millennium means that the role of meltwater discharge on the evolution of North Atlantic intermediate waters, especially during the Little Ice Age (LIA), remains unclear.

Here, we present both weathering and temperature records from deep-sea scleractinian corals collected from Southwest Greenland (Nuuk Trough). We analysed 234U/238U, rare earth elements with yttrium (REEY) and trace elements (Li/Mg temperature proxy) along with precise U-Th dating of corals. Samples were from 750 m and 1200 m water depth with ages spanning the last 1000 years. The study site is influenced by surface meltwater from the West Greenland Ice Sheet. It is also at the convergence point of shallow cold Arctic-sourced water and deeper warm Atlantic-sourced water, providing an ideal location for tracing AMOC variations.

Our coral data show West Greenland seawater δ234U has increased ~2‰ toward modern seawater value since the end of the LIA (1700 C.E.), suggesting an increase in subglacial physical weathering input. This is supported by our terrestrial discharge record from REEY data that indicates an increase in meltwater discharge since the end of the LIA. The temperature record shows a gradual cooling trend from 1600 to 1900 C.E. at 1200 m depth, followed by warming at 750m. We suggest that the temperature drop at intermediate depth is linked to a change in water mass structure, as the thermocline shallowed and colder, deeper waters expanded. Cooling at this depth is consistent with a weakened AMOC, with less penetration of warm Atlantic waters. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between glacial meltwater and intermediate water circulation in the last millennium.

How to cite: Sun, Y.-J., Robinson, L., Parkinson, I., Stewart, J., de Carvalho Ferreira, M. L., and Hendry, K.: Enhanced meltwater discharge and water mass evolution in Southwest Greenland since the end of the Little Ice Age, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12598, 2022.

EGU22-12894 | Presentations | CL1.2.6

A 500-year annual runoff reconstruction for 14 selected European catchments 

Sadaf Nasreen, Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy, Ujjwal Singh, Markéta Součková, Yannis Markonis, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, and Hanel Martin

Since the beginning of this century, Europe has been experiencing severe drought events (2003, 2007, 2010, 2018 and 2019) which have had an adverse impacts on various sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, water management, health,and ecosystems. During the last few decades, projections of the impact of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes were often capable of reproducing changes in the characteristics of these extremes. Recently, the research interest has been extended to include reconstructions of hydro-climatic conditions, so as to provide historical context for present and future extremes. While there are available reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, drought indicators, or the 20th century runofffor Europe, multi-century annual runoff reconstructions are still lacking. In this study, we have used reconstructed precipitation and temperature data, Palmer Drought Severity Index and available observed runoff across fourteen European catchments in order to develop annual runoff reconstructions for the period 1500–2000 using two data-driven and one conceptual lumped hydrological model. The comparison to observed runoff data has shown a good match between the reconstructed and observed runoff and their characteristics, particularly deficit volumes. On the other hand, the validation of input precip-itation fields revealed an underestimation of the variance across most of Europe, which is propagated into the reconstructedrunoff series. The reconstructed runoff is available via figshare, an open source scientific data repository, under the DOIhttps://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15178107, (Sadaf et al., 2021).

How to cite: Nasreen, S., Vargas Godoy, M. R., Singh, U., Součková, M., Markonis, Y., Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., and Martin, H.: A 500-year annual runoff reconstruction for 14 selected European catchments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12894, 2022.

EGU22-456 | Presentations | GM8.1

The Kalkkop Impact Crater, South Africa, an environmental archive for MIS 7 and beyond 

Kelly Kirsten, Torsten Haberzettl, Tara Edwards, Silindokuhle Mavuso, May Murungi, Loyce Mpangala, and Robyn Pickering

The Kalkkop meteorite impact crater, situated within the semi-arid Nama-Karroo biome, has long been the subject of investigation. Palaeolake deposits were confirmed after three cores were drilled in the 1990s describing the fine-grained, laminated limestone stratigraphy interspersed with an abundance of fossil material. Investigations based on these cores, suggested that during the period of deposition the region experienced alternating wetter and drier climates. However, the environmental reconstruction was based on a limited number of samples over the length of the core (~90 m) and very sparse chronology. Additionally, the core was severely disintegrated due to poor handling and storage post-retrieval. New cores were drilled at Kalkkop crater in early 2019 and are curated in a custom-built cold storage facility at the University of Cape Town. Here we present data from the longer of the two cores, an 89 m long core from the centre of the crater with close to 80% core recovery. Surface palaeolake samples have been dated to the beginning of MIS 7 (~250 ka) using U–Th series, suggesting the lake deposits may cover, at least in part, the glacial termination III, a period rarely documented for southern Africa. Here, we provide preliminary results from the top 20 m based on sediment colour characteristics, XRF, ICP, biogenic silica and CNS analyses. Future research will focus on a more detailed U-Th chronology, annual layer counting and the generation of a detailed age model. The implications of this new palaeoclimate archive presented here, plus its future age model, are significant given the sites close proximity to the rich archaeological record of early modern human behaviour on the adjacent southern Cape coast.

How to cite: Kirsten, K., Haberzettl, T., Edwards, T., Mavuso, S., Murungi, M., Mpangala, L., and Pickering, R.: The Kalkkop Impact Crater, South Africa, an environmental archive for MIS 7 and beyond, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-456, 2022.

Sand dunes sediments are a commonly used archive for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction, with chronologies for their accumulation rates, and migration rates, used in a large number of palaeoenvironmental reconstructions across global sand-rich drylands. A less common use of sand dunes as an archive is to explore the chemical and isotopic composition of the pore moisture stored within the sand. Sand dunes, constitute the uppermost unit above dryland aquifers, and represent part of the unsaturated (or vadose) zone in terms of hydrogeology. Chloride is a chemical tracer within the vadose zone that is commonly used to understand, and quantify rates of, recharge to the groundwater table, using a chloride mass balance (CMB) approach (e.g. Scanlon et al., 2006). In doing so, any variations in the concentration of pore-moisture chloride between discrete depths in the sand profile can also be used to provide a novel archive for tracking changes in palaeomoisture availability and land-use change (see review in Stone and Edmunds, 2016). This approach is known as a ‘hydrostratigraphy’.

This presentation will explore the utility of the CMB hydrostatigraphy approach for Kalahari linear dunes above the Stampriet Basin, which is a transboundary aquifer within southern Africa. This is a region for which palaeoenvironmental proxies for rainfall are extremely scarce, owing to poor preservation of organic-rich material in this oxygen-rich environment. Three repeat field visits for sampling the dunes (2011, 2013 and 2016) were used in the research design in order to explore the repeatability of this CMB hydrostratigraphy approach at this location. In addition, a transect of dunes, including dunes close to a pan, were sampled. It was hypothesised that those dunes in close proximity to the pan would be unsuitable, owing to the possible presence of Cl-rich evaporites and capillary zone influences on the behaviour of moisture in the sand-rich sediment. The trends in these profiles will be presented, along with attempts to understand the moisture pathway behaviour in these dune sediments.  

 

References

Scanlon, B.R., Mukerhjee, A., Gates, J., Reedy, R., Sinha, A.K., 2010. Groundwater recharge in natural dune systems and agricultural ecosystems in the Thar Desert region, Rajasthan, India. Hydrogeology Journal 18, 959–972.

Stone, A. E. C., Edmunds, W. M. (2016) Unsaturated zone hydrostratigraphies: A novel archive of past climates in dryland continental regions. Earth-Science Reviews 157, 121-144.

How to cite: Stone, A., Zeng, Y., and van der Ploeg, M.: Reconstructing rainfall in sandy drylands of southern Africa: exploring the potential of the chloride mass balance hydrostratigraphy approach in Kalahari sand dunes., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3093, 2022.

Here, we review four decades of research on Aeolian-Fluvial (A-F) interactions, in particular, dune-damming impoundments that deposited expanses of playa-like fine-grained sediments in the Sinai-Negev erg. We focus mainly on the erg’s eastern edge, the arid northwestern Negev dunefield (Israel), where wadis flood 1-2 times a winter. The review relates to the mechanisms of formation, timing, morphology, sedimentology, landscape response, relations with prehistoric settlements, palaeoclimate, and methodological approaches.

Vegetated linear dune (VLD) incursion, mainly during the Heinrich 1 and Younger Dryas, indicated by spatially dense but well-spread OSL chronologies, initially dammed and impounded medium-sized (101-102 km2) fluvial systems, usually in a perpendicular angle. The impounded water bodies generated a dunefield margin landscape of widespread, playa-like flats comprised of sequences of A-F sediments. These sequences, usually <7 m thick, found to often lay over eroded dune sand, reveal distinct sedimentological structures such as massive loam and couplets that in some places overlap sand, and fluvial sand associated with adjacent VLD truncation. Couplets, indicative of single dune-dammed impoundment events are usually <dozen, per section, representing several flood seasons within a sequence spanning several thousands of years. This discrepancy may imply that impoundments were seasonally successive for only several years, recording high discharge floods transporting large amounts of fine-grained bedload. More likely, the sequences are incomplete, having gone through depo-erosional cycles.

Despite VLD stabilization at the end of the Younger Dryas, fluvial fine-grained sediments continued to accumulate until the early Holocene due to successions of dune-dammed impoundments, inland of the dunefield margins. This process demonstrates that the reopened fluvial systems gradually propagated downstream. Previously reported anomalic amounts of lithic-dominated concentrations and hearths, usually from the Epipalaeolithic period, appear near and within mapped A-F sediments. Recent OSL chronologies of the A-F deposits and radiocarbon dates of hearths and hearth-like remains, support these and newly found sites, some dating to the Neolithic period. The resultant landscape is a result of unique environmental transitions at a time-window of high up-basin loess availability, from open fluvial domination to aeolian domination (dune-damming) and finally, partial and gradual dune-dam breaching, reopening of the fluvial systems and incision within A-F sediments. The patchy landscape response during this transition is controlled by basin size and its accumulated sediment load, and dune-dam properties. Altogether, the studies reveal a dramatic geomorphic and direct fluvial landscape response to dune incursion during windy late Pleistocene periods where precipitation changes appear to constitute only a minor role.

How to cite: Roskin, J., Robins, L., Yu, L., and Greenbaum, N.: Palaeoclimatic and geomorphic implications of late Quaternary aeolian-fluvial interactions in the northwestern Negev dunefield (Israel) - A review, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4344, 2022.

EGU22-6835 | Presentations | GM8.1

Desertification assessment using ecosystem resistance and resilience in drylands 

Ryo sasaki, Haruyuki Fujimaki, and Aki Yanagawa

Desertification has been estimated by various perspectives such as meteorology and geography. Desertification indicates the changing of the vegetation and the ecosystem function. However, the evaluation of the desertified area in terms of ecosystem function is not fully understood. Therefore, we calculated the time series fluctuation of desertification using the ecosystem function index (resistance and resilience). We used MODIS satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and short-term Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data. Resistance and resilience calculated from NDVI. We estimate desertification by resistance and resilience during drought period. The results show trends of fluctuation of resistance and resilience, which indicates a condition of desert areas.

How to cite: sasaki, R., Fujimaki, H., and Yanagawa, A.: Desertification assessment using ecosystem resistance and resilience in drylands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6835, 2022.

EGU22-9516 | Presentations | GM8.1

Using OSL dating to constrain the timings of Late Quaternary palaeohydrological activity on the Rustaq alluvial fan system, northern Oman. 

Sam Woor, Julie Durcan, Sallie Burrough, Ash Parton, and David Thomas

Large (1-50 km), coalescing alluvial fan systems extend eastwards from Hajar Mountain catchments to the Batinah Coast of northern Oman, representing an important environment for both sediment transfer and storage. As sediment stores, these alluvial fans have great potential to act as archives of Quaternary palaeohydrological changes in their mountain catchments. This has been shown by work carried out on interior draining fans west of the Hajar (e.g. Blechschmidt et al., 2009; Parton et al., 2013, 2015), which has highlighted the sensitivity of fan systems to periods of intensified Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) rainfall. However, the timing of fluvial activity and fan aggradation on the east of the Hajar Mountains is currently poorly constrained due to limited quantitative geochronology. This is, in part, due to the difficulty of dating Batinah alluvial sediments using luminescence techniques because of their low quartz abundances (Hoffmann et al., 2015).

This study presents new Mid-Late Pleistocene OSL ages from alluvial sediments exposed by incised channel systems in fan-head trenches in the lower reaches of the catchment and one section near the apex of the Rustaq fan. Ages from the upper fan represent the first dates on unconfined fan deposition from the Batinah Coast. The depositional contexts of ages are important for understanding the nature of fan dynamics over time. However, ages will also be considered in the context of regional palaeoenvironmental records to investigate the role of IOSM variability in landscape evolution on the Batinah Coast.  

References

Blechschmidt, I., Matter, A., Preusser, F. and Rieke-Zapp, D., 2009. Monsoon triggered formation of Quaternary alluvial megafans in the interior of Oman. Geomorphology110(3-4), pp.128-139.

Hoffmann, G., Rupprechter, M., Rahn, M. and Preusser, F., 2015. Fluvio-lacustrine deposits reveal precipitation pattern in SE Arabia during early MIS 3. Quaternary International382, pp.145-153.

Parton, A., Farrant, A.R., Leng, M.J., Schwenninger, J.L., Rose, J.I., Uerpmann, H.P. and Parker, A.G., 2013. An early MIS 3 pluvial phase in Southeast Arabia: climatic and archaeological implications. Quaternary International300, pp.62-74.

Parton, A., Farrant, A.R., Leng, M.J., Telfer, M.W., Groucutt, H.S., Petraglia, M.D. and Parker, A.G., 2015. Alluvial fan records from southeast Arabia reveal multiple windows for human dispersal. Geology43(4), pp.295-298.

How to cite: Woor, S., Durcan, J., Burrough, S., Parton, A., and Thomas, D.: Using OSL dating to constrain the timings of Late Quaternary palaeohydrological activity on the Rustaq alluvial fan system, northern Oman., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9516, 2022.

EGU22-9965 | Presentations | GM8.1

Fluvial-aeolian interactions and sand provenance in large African Sand Seas (Sahara and Kalahari) 

Guido Pastore, Thomas Baird, Eduardo Garzanti, Alberto Resentini, Abi Stone, Shlomy Vainer, and Pieter Vermeesch

Deserts are virtually the largest exposed sand depository on earth and their interaction with the river network may unveil information of present and past routing systems. Provenance studies of Sahara, Kalahari Deserts intend to apply common petrographic, geochemical and isotopic analysis to propose suggestive sedimentological information of dryland areas.

The mineralogical composition of aeolian dunes and its variability across a sand sea reflect the relative importance of fluvial and aeolian processes and the degree of their interplay. Sand seas largely fed by river systems are typically characterized by partly first-cycle detritus including various amounts of diverse types of rock fragments, feldspars and heavy minerals, generally allowing identification of a single dominant source. The opposite end member is represented by dunefields where sand is dominantly generated in situ from disaggregation of locally exposed rocks with high sand-generation potential (e.g., quartz-rich sandstones) and next reworked and homogenized by winds during several sedimentary cycles. In these cases, sand typically bears a distilled homogenous composition consisting almost exclusively of mostly rounded monocrystalline quartz associated with an extremely poor tHM suite dominated by durable ZTR minerals, as for the Sahara Desert (Pastore et al., 2021).

The Kalahari Basin, which extends over twenty degrees of latitude, is characterized by a pronounced increase in precipitation from the southwest to the subequatorial north and has seen repeated changes in climatic conditions through the recent and less recent past, provides both end-member examples, as well as a series of intermediate situations. Sand mineralogy is rather homogeneously pure quartzose in the north, closer to humid equatorial regions, but presents peculiar feldspar-rich or even lithic-rich compositions at both western and eastern margins of the erg, where detrital modes with more abudant and varied tHM suites indicate largely first-cycle supply from local rivers (Garzanti et al., 2022) . The evidence shows that a better developed fluvial network can interrupt the “recycling factory” of the desert, introducing first cycle eroded sediment deflated from river flanks into the dunes.

The geographic distribution of such contrasting desert types is mainly controlled by precipitation in adjacent highlands fueling fluvial discharge. In hyper-arid tropical deserts dominated by aeolian dynamics, such as the Sahara, river action may be weakened to the point that fluvial supply to the aeolian system becomes insignificant. Fluvial sources are instead readily identified for dunefields accumulated in drylands at the foot of high mountain areas, as in Kalahari flanks or central Asia and Argentina (e.g., Rittner et al., 2016, Garzanti 2020, 2021).

Pastore, G., et al., 2021. Provenance and recycling of Sahara Desert sand. Earth-Science Reviews, 216.

Garzanti, E., et al., 2022. Provenance of Kalahari Sand: Paleoweathering and recycling in a linked fluvial-aeolian system. Earth-Science Reviews, 224.

Rittner, M., et al., 2016. The provenance of Taklamakan desert sand. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 437.

Garzanti, E.,  et al., 2020. Provenance of Thal Desert sand: Focused erosion in the western Himalayan syntaxis and foreland-basin deposition driven by latest Quaternary climate change. Earth-Science Reviews, 207.

Garzanti, E. et al., 2021. Transcontinental retroarc sediment routing controlled by subduction geometry and climate change (Central and Southern Andes, Argentina). Basin Research, 33.

How to cite: Pastore, G., Baird, T., Garzanti, E., Resentini, A., Stone, A., Vainer, S., and Vermeesch, P.: Fluvial-aeolian interactions and sand provenance in large African Sand Seas (Sahara and Kalahari), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9965, 2022.

EGU22-10249 | Presentations | GM8.1

High-resolution analysis of late Quaternary aeolianites on the southeastern Mediterranean coast of Israel 

Lucy Mokaya, Revital Bookman, Joel Roskin, Sagi Filin, and Ayelet Koren

High-resolution analysis of late Quaternary aeolianites on the southeastern Mediterranean coast of Israel

Mokaya, B.L.1,2, Roskin, J.2,3, Koren, A.4, Filin, S. 4, Bookman, R1.,

  • Charney School of Marine Sciences, Department of Marine Geosciences, University of Haifa, Israel
  • Geomorphology and Portable Luminescence Laboratory, the Leon Recanati Institute for Maritime Studies (RIMS), University of Haifa, Israel
  • Department of Geography and Environment, Bar-Ilan University, Israel
  • Mapping and Geo-Information Engineering, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Israel

 

Aeolianites ridges are petrified sand dunes deposited at low to mid-latitude coasts. The location, structure and lithification properties of aeolianite ridges is generally understood to reflect changes in sea level, strong wind power, fetch parameters, and sediment availability. The Israeli coast has a chain of both submerged and inland aeolianites ridges running parallel to the southeastern Mediterranean coastline. The aeolianites consist of discontinuous accumulations of fine-and cross-bedded Nilotic sands, differentially lithified by carbonate. Red, sandy palaeosoils divide the aeolianite units and represent periods of reduced wind power and stabilization. Previous studies present low-resolution dating and finds are poorly correlated with climatic and environmental events related to deposition or lithification.

This study describes the vertical and lateral evolution of an elongated aeolianite ridge, at first a sand dune that accumulated and lithified along the palaeo Israeli Mediterranean coast during the last glacial period. The main objective is to explore the dune development at single-bed to sand package stages in time and their relation to local environmental conditions and regional climatic trends and possible changes.

The methodology included high-resolution LiDAR scanned enriched by RGB image data of exposed sections, detailed Portable OSL analysis accompanied with OSL dating, and sedimentological characterization. Sedimentological analysis shows that aeolian accumulation occurred as discrete laminae that built-up cross-bedded sediment packages. Beds continuously alternate between loose sand to cemented ones. The loose laminae consist almost entirely of quartz grains, while the lithified laminae are dominated by calcium carbonate cement. Since cementation is parallel to the aeolian accumulation, it is proposed that this incipient lithification may represent a surficial process that occurred while the dune was still active and accumulating. It may represent microbiotic crusts activated by moisture conditions. These can serve as biomarkers for wind power and wetness duration.

POSL measurements have bright blue OSL signals (12-17 million) and very similar depletion and IRSL-OSL ratios that demonstrate sedimentological similarity that is suitable for reliable POSL profiling. POSL profiling revealed a high-resolution and in-order chronostratigraphy. This may suggest that the sand laminations represent specific wind events at a very high seasonal to even diurnal resolution. Lateral POSL results reveal a certain value range and it does not demonstrate evidence for a significant change in depositional age, while the vertical profile demonstrates a linear upwards decrease in count values. The trends also demonstrate that the quartz grains do not possess a saturated OSL signal. Upcoming OSL dating and outcrop image analysis will better constrain the accumulation rates and their possible connection to environmental and climatic drivers. 

How to cite: Mokaya, L., Bookman, R., Roskin, J., Filin, S., and Koren, A.: High-resolution analysis of late Quaternary aeolianites on the southeastern Mediterranean coast of Israel, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10249, 2022.

EGU22-10444 | Presentations | GM8.1

Three major problems of grain size measurements: (1) grain, (2) size, and (3) measurement 

György Varga, Fruzsina Gresina, János Kovács, and Zoltán Szalai

The granulometric properties and grain size data of fine-grained clastic sediments have been used in many different ways to make paleoenvironmental interpretations. This is particularly true for the eolian environments of arid regions. However, the modern methods of grain size determination that are increasingly available to many people sometimes mislead researchers and suggest that the results of measurements are infallible.
Here we present findings that are worth considering when using granulometric data. Different chemical pretreatment methods, particle-sizing techniques, and various devices (laser diffraction devices [Fritsch Analysette 22 Microtec Plus, Horiba Partica LA-950 v2 and Malvern Mastersizer 3000], and an automated image analyser [Malvern Morphologi G3-IDSE]) were applied to measure the grain size of aeolian dust deposits and soils and to quantify the effects of different approaches on particle size data. 
(1) Grain: What does it mean grain? Single grain? Aggregated particles? Coated particles? Pretreatment techniques have a significant impact on clumped particles, aggregates, and single grain granulometric parameters. According to our findings, different widely used chemical treatments have substantial and significantly different effects on the results. The purpose of studies determines the required pretreatments (e.g. particles could have been supplied as silt-sized aggregates; then it is not very useful to decompose them to reconstruct past wind flow mechanisms or post-depositional alterations, but from a geotechnical point of view, the situation is different). Our results on particle size modification effects of five widely applied chemical pretreatment procedures demonstrate the importance of pre-measurement handling of samples.
(2) Size: What is the size of an irregularly shaped particle? Mineral particles are not spheres; their size can only be estimated by applying equivalent diameters. Irregular particle shapes also have an effect on sizing. Automated image analysis provides a wide-scale of shape parameters, which can be used as a novel approach for granulometric characterisation, transport mechanism reconstruction and offers an opportunity to develop granulometric alteration indices. 
(3) Measurement: Particle size differences can also result from measurement technique differences. Direct (image analysis) and indirect (laser scattering) measurement techniques require different prior information about the mineral material to be measured. At a starting point of laser scattering measurements, it is assumed that the analysed particles are spherical, and their complex refractive index is known. In fact, due to the shape anisotropy and mineralogical heterogeneity of particles, fulfilling these requirements is impossible in the case of sedimentary samples and soils. However, even similar approaches (e.g. laser scattering devices of different manufacturers) can provide significantly different size results applying the same optical settings. Grain size distributions were calculated using both the Fraunhofer and Mie scattering theories and a wide variety of optical settings. The unknown 3rd-dimensional size (thickness) of mineral particles is the key source of the uncertainties during image analysis. 
Support of the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (Hungary) under contract NKFIH FK138692 is gratefully acknowledged.

How to cite: Varga, G., Gresina, F., Kovács, J., and Szalai, Z.: Three major problems of grain size measurements: (1) grain, (2) size, and (3) measurement, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10444, 2022.

EGU22-12243 | Presentations | GM8.1

Assessing the impact of climate change on three decades of soil salinity dynamics in the Bajestan Playa, Northeast Iran 

Azra Khosravichenar, Mehdi Aalijahan, Saeidreza Moaazeni-Noghondar, Mathias Ulrich, Naser Parvian, Abouzar Sadeghi, and Hans Von.Suchodoletz

Playas are endorheic sediment basins in drylands that are temporally filled with water. During dry seasons, their surfaces are generally covered with a thick crust of clay-rich clastic material and soluble salts. Strong winds can mobilize that fine-grained material, including the salts, from the playa surfaces as aeolian dust that strongly affects the surrounding ecosystems and human livelihood. During recent decades, climate change strongly altered the salinity regimes of many playas, leading to an increase of surface salinity. During this study we investigated the impact of climate change on soil salinity dynamics in the Bajestan Playa, Northeast Iran, over a period of three decades (1992-2021). The studied region is particularly exposed to the "Sistan winds of 120-Days" during the dry season in summer. Therefore, it is one of the main dust source areas in eastern Iran.

In order to better understand and predict the geochemical composition of aeolian dust, it is necessary to monitor and map regional salinization processes. Thus, we applied a multi-disciplinary approach that encompased remote sensing, field-based ground truthing, and climatic data analysis. Remote sensing analysis on Landsat data (first week of July of all studied years) were carried out on three generations of sensors (TM, ETM+, OLI 8) that were uniformly corrected for atmospheric and geometrical conditions. During a field campaign in July 2021, a total number of 130 soil sampleswere collected from the upper 20 cm of soil of areas that represent seven soil salinity classes that were preliminary identified based on multispectral remote sensing analysis and regional geological maps. In addition, the electrical conductivity (EC) was subsequently measured on the soil surface samples in the laboratory. Based on these field measurements and the remote sensing analyzes, we were finally able to derive twelve soil salt indices. Two among all indices (S12 and S13) showed the most satisfactory calibration accuracies between the field and remote sensing-based EC values. Finally, the index SI2 was applied to the Landsat images for temporal and spatial quantitative soil salinity mapping. Furthermore, to validate the impact of climate change on the salinity changes, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Mann-Kendal Index were calculated based on temperature and precipitation data at different time scales of the last 60 years.

How to cite: Khosravichenar, A., Aalijahan, M., Moaazeni-Noghondar, S., Ulrich, M., Parvian, N., Sadeghi, A., and Von.Suchodoletz, H.: Assessing the impact of climate change on three decades of soil salinity dynamics in the Bajestan Playa, Northeast Iran, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12243, 2022.

EGU22-12806 | Presentations | GM8.1

Temporal changes in moisture distribution in sandstones near Petra, Jordan 

Jakub Mares, Tomas Weiss, and Jiri Bruthans

Most of weathering processes are connected to moisture presence and flow that affects salt transport and crystallization. However, knowledge of moisture distribution and capillary flow in areas with cavernous weathering forms is scarce. Honeycombs and tafoni, common cavernous weathering forms, occur on different types of rocks and in different climatic conditions, but in arid environments such as south Jordan, tafoni are clearly actively evolving and abundant in the local sandstones, both on natural outcrops and on ancient carved monuments such as in the historic city of Petra.

The depth of the evaporation front was measured in 3 sites with tafone near Petra in Jordan in November 2018, December 2019 and December 2021 (in a cold and relatively wet period of a year). The first site (A) is a tafone situated 5 m below the sub-horizontal surface allowing infiltration. It is facing to the north.The second site (B) is located at the foot of a 50 m high rock cliff. This tafone is facing to the south.The rock is fractured, so it likely allows faster infiltration.The third site (C) is a tafone situated at the foot of the rock cliff, 15 m below the top, facing to the southeast.

The evaporation front is the boundary within the rock that separates the dry layer usually and the capillary zone, and its depth has a major effect on weathering as salts accumulate and crystallize here. The depth of the evaporation front was measured by the ‘uranine-probe’ method, inside tafoni (6 measuring points) and in visors i.e. the thin rock separating the tafone hollows (5 measurement points). We compared the measured depths of the evaporation front with the period of time since the last precipitation event. In 2018, only 14 days elapsed from the significant 83 mm precipitation event, in 2019 only 33 days elapsed from single 244 mm rain event, while in 2021 there were just 2 mm of rain followed by 316 days of no rain (very dry period).

At the site A, the evaporation front was not detected in any measurement, as it was deeper than 10 cm, meaning that evaporation strongly dominates over inflow from sandstone massive. At the site B, the evaporation front was at nearly constant depth at all visits (the average 75 mm, time oscilation only +-5%).  At the site C, there is the largest fluctuation in the depth of the evaporation front. The greatest depth of the evaporation front (average 52 mm) was measured in 2018. In 2019 the average depth of the evaporation front was 42 mm. In contrast, in 2021, the depth of the evaporation front was only 24 mm below the surface. It is clear from the measured data that the depth of the evaporation front does not correspond to antecedent precipitation. From this we can conclude that water does not respond to individual precipitation events, but changes in water reserves are probably controlled by longer cycles or by evaporation demand, rather than rain.

This research was funded by the Charles University Grant Agency (GAUK - 265421).

How to cite: Mares, J., Weiss, T., and Bruthans, J.: Temporal changes in moisture distribution in sandstones near Petra, Jordan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12806, 2022.

The Western Victorian Volcanic Plains of southeastern Australia is the third largest basalt province in the world. Whilst the climate of this region is presently temperate, it lies east and south of extensive dunefields which were active during more arid phases in the past.

While investigating the timing of fossil deposition at the Spring Creek megafaunal site – a locality initially argued to provide evidence for last glacial survival of extinct invertebrate taxa – we discovered a surprising quantity of sand-sized quartz within the clayey sediments of the deposit. Since quartz sand is not common in the Western Victorian basalt province or within underlying Tertiary marls, we propose this sand to be allochthonous and transported some distance. The quartz sand yields a particularly bright luminescence signal characteristic (although not diagnostic) of aeolian quartz from dune sediments to the west, and dates using single-grain optically stimulated luminescence to just prior to the Last Glacial Maximum.

In this study we investigate the potential for long-distance sand transport to the Spring Creek site on the Western Victorian basalt plains, by means of climate reanalysis and wind regime modelling for the LGM compared with the present-day time slices. We find that LGM wind regimes were dominated by strong, unidirectional westerly air flow at Spring Creek, compared with more variable and weaker wind orientations and velocities in the present day. Our results suggest stronger potential for eastward distal sand transport from the dunefields west of the basalt plains during the LGM. This enhanced wind strength and transport was coeval with enhanced aeolian activity in those dunefields, and with reactivation of sandy palaeoshorelines just to the south of them. Additional modelling of LGM wind vectors compared with aeolian accumulation onto securely dated transverse shoreline dunes of the same age in the Willandra Lakes to the north supports our findings, by indicating an intensification of westerly winds over the southeastern part of the Australian continent just prior to the LGM.

How to cite: Fitzsimmons, K., Gromov, S., and Porch, N.: Long-distance sand transport to the temperate basalt plains of southeastern Australia: implications for atmospheric circulation just prior to the last glacial maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12809, 2022.

EGU22-13298 | Presentations | GM8.1

Loess tableland evolution in the Central Great Plains, USA, and implications for preservation potential of the loess record, stored sediment, and buried soil carbon 

Joseph Mason, Taylor McDowell, Tien Vo, Chase Kasmerchak, and Erika Marín-Spiotta

Thick loess of the central Great Plains, USA, preserves a detailed record of Holocene climate change, extremely thick loess accumulated during and just after the last glacial maximum, and a sequence of older loess units and paleosols. This loess sequence is only well-preserved beneath the summits of tablelands, plateau-like landforms with flat to undulating summits and steep gully-dissected marginal slopes. These loess tablelands are also a key setting for preservation of organic carbon in buried soils and for long-term storage of sediment in the form of loess. Even under tableland summits, however, at some sites interbedded or surficial sand aeolian sand interrupts the loess sequence and/or parts of the loess sequence are missing. These are interpreted as the result of downwind/upwind shifts in the boundary between thick loess and the dune fields or bedrock surfaces of sand transport that occur upwind of the loess.

 

We are testing a set of hypotheses on how landscape evolution through aeolian, hillslope, and fluvial processes controls the development and long-term persistence of loess tablelands. Here we focus on three of those hypotheses: 1) closed depressions on tableland summits, produced by aeolian erosion, disconnect runoff on the summits from the drainage network on marginal slopes, enhancing tableland preservation; 2) episodic migration of aeolian sand into the loess region has truncated the loess record locally, but in the long term the sands enhance tableland persistence through effects on infiltration and runoff; and 3) loess tablelands in the region all developed on older bedrock tablelands that were preserved by similar processes including formation of closed depressions and mantles of aeolian sand or fluvial sand and gravel. The first hypothesis is supported by analysis of surface flowpaths and by landscape evolution modeling using the Landlab toolkit (Hobley et al., 2017; Barnhart et al., 2020). The second is tentatively supported by field and lab measurements of the hydraulic properties of aeolian sand, loess, and loess-derived soils in the study area. The third hypothesis is supported in local areas by reconstruction of the underlying surface using subsurface data and outcrops, as well as observations of nearby bedrock tablelands that are not loess covered. Interesting questions arising from these hypotheses include: 1) Is the destruction of tablelands essentially irreversible or can additional loess “smooth out” dissected surfaces? 2) Are all the loess tablelands relatively old (Middle Pleistocene or older) or did some form more recently?

 

Hobley, D. E. J., Adams, J. M., Nudurupati, S. S., Hutton, E. W. H., Gasparini, N. M., Istanbulluoglu, E. and Tucker, G. E., 2017, Creative computing with Landlab: an open-source toolkit for building, coupling, and exploring two-dimensional numerical models of Earth-surface dynamics, Earth Surface Dynamics, 5(1), p 21-46, 10.5194/esurf-5-21-2017.

Barnhart, K. R., Hutton, E. W. H., Tucker, G. E., Gasparini, N. M., Istanbulluoglu, E., Hobley, D. E. J., Lyons, N. J., Mouchene, M., Nudurupati, S. S., Adams, J. M., and Bandaragoda, C., 2020, Short communication: Landlab v2.0: A software package for Earth surface dynamics, Earth Surf. Dynam., 8(2), p 379-397, doi:10.5194/esurf-8-379-2020.

How to cite: Mason, J., McDowell, T., Vo, T., Kasmerchak, C., and Marín-Spiotta, E.: Loess tableland evolution in the Central Great Plains, USA, and implications for preservation potential of the loess record, stored sediment, and buried soil carbon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13298, 2022.

EGU22-13303 | Presentations | GM8.1

Aeolian-Fluvial response to late-Pleistocene dunefield encroachments along the northwestern Negev dunefield margins (Israel) 

Lotem Robins, Joel Roskin, Lupeng Yu, and Noam Greenbaum

Aeolian-Fluvial (A-F) processes formed vast and flat landscapes during the late-Pleistocene along dunefield margins. A-F research examines the impacts of extrinsic processes of the aeolian and fluvial systems on one another, which formed these unique landscapes. However, the mechanisms and depositions of A-F processes are not fully understood. In this study, a 120 m wide and 7 m high, wadi bank exposure of an A-F sequence reveals the sedimentary units, where the northwestern Negev (Israel) dunefield desert margins interact with the Atadim fluvial system (64 km2). A chrono-stratigraphic analysis by laboratory measurements (Particle size distribution & Total of carbon), relative and absolute luminescence dating (POSL & OSL), radiocarbon and archeological dating, enabled conclusions regarding the depositional mechanisms and environment. Finally, DEM (~12.5 m pixel) and GPS-RTK (0.3 m resolution) were used to assess A-F depositional boundary.

The results demonstrate a unique perseverance of aeolian sand units covered by low-energy fluvial deposits. The sand and dune units illustrate several sand incursions into the fluvial system since the Last Glacial Maximum until the mid-Holocene. We observed  low-energy fluvial deposits, which resulted from these sand incursions: (a) couplets deposited in an ever-emptying waterbody, impounded by a dune-dam. (b) massive fine-grained formation – deposition of suspended sediments in an impounded waterbody, near the damming-dune where the waterbody is the deepest. (c) Fining upwards with fine laminas deposits – embedded between couplet formations, deposited in a low-energy fluvial environment. The fine laminas indicate small tributaries income to the main low-energetic flow.

We demonstrate that in A-F sequences, not only are the aeolian sand units preserved but also they act as palaeo-fluvial archives. The section reflects that late-Pleistocene dune-damming build-up resulted in a lagged fluvial response enabled by a climatic change during the early-Holocene. The combination of stabilized dune-dams within the fluvial systems and high discharge flows with large available sediment supply resulted in vast aggregation of A-F sediments, forming the alluvial plain.

How to cite: Robins, L., Roskin, J., Yu, L., and Greenbaum, N.: Aeolian-Fluvial response to late-Pleistocene dunefield encroachments along the northwestern Negev dunefield margins (Israel), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13303, 2022.

CL2 – Present Climate – historical and direct observations period

Global energy budget studies often state that “radiative energy exchanges between Sun, Earth and space are accurately quantified from satellite missions; much less is known about the magnitude of the energy flows within the climate system and at the Earth surface, which cannot be directly measured by satellites.” However, there are long-known theoretical tools to constrain surface energy flows to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes by using Schwarzschild’s equation of radiation transfer. We control the validity of this equation in the annual global mean on two decades of CERES observations by creating four versions of it (clear-sky and all-sky, for the net and total radiation), and find them satisfied within less than ±3 Wm-2 for the individual equations, and with a difference of 0.005 Wm-2 only for the four equations together. The two net equations constrain the convective fluxes at the lower boundary and the hydrological cycle unequivocally to energy flows at the upper boundary (implementing a fundamental stability criterion); the other two represent specific conditions with a given optical depth, connecting total energy absorption at the surface to energy flows at TOA. Applying known definitions, these four equations can be solved, and the solution appears as a set of small integers related to a unit flux (example: surface downward longwave radiation = 13 units = 346.84 Wm-2, see Figures). As a remarkable feature, the solution can be extended to further flux components not being involved in the original equations, including solar reflections at TOA both for all-sky and clear-sky, and a separation of the convective flux into its sensible and latent heat components in all-sky. This way, the complete annual global mean energy flow system can be presented as the function of TOA fluxes, without any reference to the atmospheric gaseous composition or lapse rate. — This theoretical description differs essentially from the picture given by the IPCC where Schwarzschild’s equations do not occur. Without these standard university textbook relationships (e.g., Houghton 1977, Eq. 2.13), the physical science basis is incomplete and misleading. This is a self-regulating system where feedbacks contradicting the stability criteria are not possible. If we change an atmospheric constituent (CO2, for example), energetic requirements will maintain the theoretical state by modifying other components (H2O, temperature distribution, clouds, etc.). We propose an explanation based on a concept of Graeme Stephens: principles define the radiation processes that prescribe the properties of the atmosphere, rather than the opposite way. But as one and the same global mean state can be maintained through several seasonal, regional and local distributions and their changes are always possible at unknown magnitudes and time scales, emissions control is still necessary. — Comments on Trenberth (2022) global energy budget will also be presented.

Further readings:

Zagoni, M.: Sir John Houghton and radiation transfer, EGU General Assembly 2021, April 2021
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU21-1.html

CERES 35th Science Team Meeting presentation (May 2021)
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/STM/2021-05/34_Zagoni_CERES_STM35.pdf

CERES 36th Science Team Meeting presentation (October 2021)
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/STM/2021-09/MP4files/26_MZagoni_presentation2.mp4

AMS2022 102nd Annual Meeteing, Kevin Trenberth Symposium presentation (January 2022)
https://ams.confex.com/ams/102ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/387827

How to cite: Zagoni, M.: Earth energy flow system as the solution of four radiative transfer constraint equations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-49, 2022.

EGU22-586 | Presentations | CL2.1

Detailed analysis of the Global Dimming & Brightening from 1980 to 2020 based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data 

Michael Stamatis, Nikolaos Hatzianastassiou, Marios Bruno Korras Carraca, Christos Matsoukas, Martin Wild, and Ilias Vardavas

The incident solar radiation on the Earth’s surface (SSR) varies on a decadal scale and this phenomenon is called Global Dimming & Brightening (GDB). GDB is known to be caused by anthropogenic and natural climate agents, with clouds and aerosols being the most significant.

This study examines the GDB using Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications v.2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data, that is originally provided on a 0.5°×0.625° horizontal grid resolution, for the 41-year period 01/1980 – 12/2020. The mean monthly SSR fluxes and their deseasonalized anomalies are computed and validated against ground truth measurements from two major reference station networks, namely the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), and the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). The changes of SSR anomalies (ΔSSR or GDB) are calculated on global (land & ocean), hemispherical and regional scales, over the entire period and for sub-periods too. In each case, it has been examined whether the sign of MERRA-2 GDB (dimming or brightening) agree or disagree with the corresponding GDB sign of stations lying within the MERRA pixel.

Using SSR deseasonalized anomalies, the computed ΔSSR for the 41-year period 1/1980-12/2019 for the Globe is equal to -6.307±0.193 W/m2 (on an annual basis), -5.716±0.281 W/m2 for the Northern Hemisphere and -6.161±0.379 W/m2 for the Southern Hemisphere, indicating an overall dimming, which has counteracted the anthropogenic greenhouse warming. Stronger dimming is found over oceans, equal to -7.805±0.244 W/m2, against a weaker dimming over land, equal to -2.582±0.249 W/m2, pointing to a less transparent atmosphere over the oceans than over land. A brightening is found over Europe and E. Asia, opposite to a dimming over India . The agreement between the estimated GDB from MERRA-2 and GEBA/BSRN stations ranges from 50% to 77%, either for the entire study period as well or the examined sub-periods (1980-1985,1986-2000,2001-2010,2011-2020), revealing a reasonable agreement adding confidence about the conclusions drawn from this MERRA-2 based analysis.

How to cite: Stamatis, M., Hatzianastassiou, N., Korras Carraca, M. B., Matsoukas, C., Wild, M., and Vardavas, I.: Detailed analysis of the Global Dimming & Brightening from 1980 to 2020 based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-586, 2022.

EGU22-616 | Presentations | CL2.1

Total Solar Irradiance monitored by  DARA/JTSIM : first light observations 

Jean-Philippe Montillet, Wolfgang Finsterle, Margit Haberreiter, Werner Schmutz, Daniel Pfiffner, Silvio Koller, Manfred Gyo, Wei Fang, Xin Ye, Dongjun Yang, and Duo Wu

The Joint Total Solar Irradiance Monitor (JTSIM) onboard the Fengyun-3E spacecraft has been launched successfully the 4th of July 2021. It aims at measuring the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) in orbit. The instruments on the Fengyun-3E/JTSIM include the Digital Absolute Radiometer (DARA) from the Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium, Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) and the Solar Irradiance Absolute Radiometer (SIAR) from the Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (CIOMP/CAS). The JTSIM experiment will use the two different types of TSI radiometers to track the stability of TSI measurements, and to better understand instrumental degradation in space. We will present results from this new experiment at first light. We will compare the measurements from DARA and SIAR over the first few months and relate them to other active missions (SOHO/VIRGO/PMO6v, SORCE/TSIS). 

How to cite: Montillet, J.-P., Finsterle, W., Haberreiter, M., Schmutz, W., Pfiffner, D., Koller, S., Gyo, M., Fang, W., Ye, X., Yang, D., and Wu, D.: Total Solar Irradiance monitored by  DARA/JTSIM : first light observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-616, 2022.

EGU22-682 | Presentations | CL2.1 | Highlight

Monitoring Global Radiative Forcing from Space 

Brian Soden, Ryan Kramer, and Haozhe He

Changes in atmospheric composition, such as increasing greenhouse gases, cause an initial radiative imbalance to the climate system, quantified as the instantaneous radiative forcing. This fundamental metric has not been directly observed globally and previous estimates have come from models. In part, this is because current space-based instruments cannot distinguish the instantaneous radiative forcing from the climate’s radiative response. We apply radiative kernels to satellite observations to disentangle these components and find all-sky instantaneous radiative forcing has increased 0.53 ± 0.11 W/m2 from 2003 to 2018, accounting for positive trends in the total planetary radiative imbalance. This increase has been due to a combination of rising concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases and recent reductions in aerosol emissions. These results highlight distinct fingerprints of anthropogenic activity in Earth’s changing energy budget, which we find observations can detect within 4 years.

How to cite: Soden, B., Kramer, R., and He, H.: Monitoring Global Radiative Forcing from Space, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-682, 2022.

EGU22-1194 | Presentations | CL2.1

Evidence for clear-sky dimming and brightening in the long-term Potsdam radiation record 

Martin Wild, Stefan Wacker, Su Yang, and Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo

For the explanation of the observed decadal variations in surface solar radiation (known as dimming and brightening) the relative importance of clouds and the cloud-free atmosphere (particularly aerosols) is currently disputed. Here we investigate this issue using daily data from the prominent long-term observational radiation record at Potsdam, Germany, over the 71-years period 1947-2017. We identify cloud-free days based on synop cloud observations as well as on days with maximum atmospheric transmission. Irrespective of the cloud-screening method, strong dimming and brightening tendencies in the atmospheric transmission are evident not only under all-sky, but also of similar magnitude under clear-sky conditions, causing multidecadal variations in surface solar radiation on the order of 10 Wm-2. This points to the cloud-free atmosphere as a main responsible for dimming and brightening in Central Europe and suggests that these variations are anthropogenically forced rather than of natural origin, with aerosol pollutants as likely major drivers.

This study has been published in Geophysical Research Letters (Wild et al. 2021)

Reference:

Wild, M., Wacker, S., Yang, S., and Sanchez-Lorenzo, A. (2021). Evidence for clear-sky dimming and brightening in central Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL092216. https://doi. org/10.1029/2020GL092216

 

 

How to cite: Wild, M., Wacker, S., Yang, S., and Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.: Evidence for clear-sky dimming and brightening in the long-term Potsdam radiation record, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1194, 2022.

EGU22-1554 | Presentations | CL2.1

The aerosol contribution to the rate of anthropogenic warming since 2000 

Stuart Jenkins, Andrew Gettelman, Philip Stier, Don Grainger, and Myles Allen

Successive IPCC reports have assessed the level of human-induced warming above preindustrial, but much less emphasis has been placed on quantifying the rate of anthropogenic warming, despite the rate of warming being a key variable for ambitious policymaking. The decadal global temperature anomaly trend can be considered a combination of the forced responses from the full range of radiatively-active pollutants, plus the additional trend introduced by natural variability over the previous decade.

The global temperature anomaly trend likely increased in the 2010s, following a temporary pause through the 2000s. Estimates of the globally averaged radiative forcing (RF) timeseries, which are used to attribute the anthropogenic contribution to this recent behaviour, suggest a 50% increase in the anthropogenic RF trend, which largely arises from aerosol RF trend changes since 2000. When these RF timeseries are used to complete a global temperature anomaly attribution (following the technique outlined in the IPCC’s Special Report on the Global Warming of 1.5°C), they suggest that the attributed anthropogenic warming rate has increased by between 50 and 100% since 2000, pushing the estimated rate of net anthropogenic warming up to around 0.3°C/decade since 2010.

We study the global observational evidence supporting the aerosol trends presented in these RF datasets, and thus aim to determine the likely anthropogenic contribution to the perceived warming acceleration behaviour since 2000. We argue that while observations do support the claim that RF trends are partly responsible for the warming trend (and importantly do support the best-estimate RF trend estimates in this ensemble), observational evidence is circumstantial, with a counterhypothesis that aerosol RFs make only a small contribution to the warming trend since 2000 consistently failing to be disproven across the full ensemble of RFs.

This occurs because observed trends in radiative fluxes and global temperatures are significantly influenced by internal variability, principally ENSO and PDO, precluding a clearer assessment of the externally forced behaviour over the short global observational records we have. In light of this uncertainty, considerable caution is required in predictions or policy judgments that depend on the precise current anthropogenic warming trend, such as the time remaining to, or the outstanding carbon budget consistent with, a warming of 1.5°C, since these may be influenced considerably by recent changes in aerosol forcing behaviour.

How to cite: Jenkins, S., Gettelman, A., Stier, P., Grainger, D., and Allen, M.: The aerosol contribution to the rate of anthropogenic warming since 2000, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1554, 2022.

EGU22-2298 | Presentations | CL2.1

How Significant are the Longwave Radiative Effects of the Cloud-Aerosol Transition Zone? 

Babak Jahani, Hendrik Andersen, Josep Calbó, Josep-Abel González, and Jan Cermak

In this communication, we have found that the broadband longwave radiative effect of the cloud-aerosol transition zone conditions is of the order of 8.0 ±3.7 W m−2 by combining satellite measurements with radiative transfer modeling. It is often required to differentiate clouds and aerosols from each other in atmospheric studies, but the decision on where the boundaries of the clouds should be put is a point of debate. As a result, what detected as cloud by one method/instrument may be labeled differently by another. This is because 1) clouds and aerosols often co-exist and interact with each other, and 2) change in the state of sky from cloudy to cloudless (or vice versa) comprises an additional condition called “transition zone” (or “twilight zone”) at which the characteristics of the particle suspension lay between those corresponding to pure clouds and atmospheric aerosols [Koren et al. (2007) GRL, 34(8): L08805. 10.1029/2007GL029253]. Nevertheless, a vast area that potentially may represent the transition zone is usually neglected in the observations or assumed as an area that contains either aerosols or optically thin clouds. In this communication, we provide quantitative information about the broadband longwave radiative effects of the transition zone conditions at the top of the atmosphere based on the radiative observations made by the CERES and MODIS instruments onboard Aqua spacecraft and radiative transfer simulations. Specifically, we used the MODIS measurements to look for CERES footprints with homogeneous transition zone and clear-sky conditions over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean for August 2010. Then, CERES observations under homogeneous transition and clear-sky conditions were compared with the corresponding clear-sky radiances, which were simulated using the SBDART radiative transfer model, fed with ERA5 reanalysis atmospheric profiles. For the studied period and domain, transition zone broadband longwave radiative effect was on average equal to 8.0 ±3.7 W m−2 (heating effect; median: 5.4 W m−2), although cases with radiative effects as large as 50 W m−2 were observed. Furthermore, low-level transition zone conditions defined as those with suspension top height below 2 km (determined based on the difference between the layer top and surface temperature) on average produced a radiative effect of about 4.6 W m−2. The lowest layers (temperature difference less than 4 K) produced on average a radiative effect of 0.8 W m−2.

How to cite: Jahani, B., Andersen, H., Calbó, J., González, J.-A., and Cermak, J.: How Significant are the Longwave Radiative Effects of the Cloud-Aerosol Transition Zone?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2298, 2022.

EGU22-2888 | Presentations | CL2.1

Evidence for biomass burning-forced dimming in southern Africa 

Lucas Ferreira Correa, Martin Wild, Doris` Folini, and Boriana Chtirkova

Decadal trends in Surface solar radiation (SSR) have gained attention in the last few decades after several studies identified the non stable behaviour of such measurements. Also referred to as Global Dimming and Global Brightening, these decadal trends are known to be spatially heterogeneous, meaning that different regions might experience different trends, associated with different causes. While measurements have allowed the identification of trends around the world, the understanding of the causes of those trends is limited to a few regional studies mostly focusing on developed countries. The lack of data in developing countries leads to an underrepresentation of those regions in what regards to global dimming and brightening research. In this work, we use around 39 years  (1967-2005) of daily SSR measurements of two stations in Zimbabwe, and apply a new method for clear-sky derivation, using satellite cloud fraction to identify optimal daily transmittance thresholds for clear-sky identification. The all-sky and clear-sky time series of SSR are then compared to cloud fraction and water vapor data from ERA5 reanalysis and to aerosol emissions from the EDGAR database. The SSR time series show a persistent dimming of similar magnitude both in all-sky and clear-sky. The cloud fraction does not show any significant trends, reinforcing the hypothesis that the dimming was caused by cloud-free radiative processes in the atmosphere. The water vapour time series also does not show any significant trend which could justify the negative trends in SSR. However, the monthly interannual variability show that the dimming is stronger between July and September, months with higher emission of biomass burning aerosols in that region. This might also indicate an anthropogenic related cause of the dimming observed in southern Africa. This study intends to contribute to the understanding of the global dimming and brightening phenomena in southern Africa, but also to highlight the importance of studies focusing in underrepresented regions of the world.

How to cite: Ferreira Correa, L., Wild, M., Folini, D., and Chtirkova, B.: Evidence for biomass burning-forced dimming in southern Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2888, 2022.

EGU22-3190 | Presentations | CL2.1 | Highlight

Cloud regulation of inter-hemispheric albedo symmetry 

Frida Bender

Despite differences in land distribution, and aerosol amount, the Northern and Southern hemispheres have been found to reflect almost exactly the same amount of incoming shortwave radiation. This indicates that clouds compensate for the asymmetry in clear-sky reflection, and make the system maintain an inter-hemispheric albedo symmetry. 

In the mean state, retrievals from satellite-borne CERES measurements suggest that mid-latitude clouds are both in amount and reflectivity contributing to this compensation, together with sub-tropical cloud amount, that is also greater in the Northern hemisphere. Composites of instances with high asymmetry in either direction indicate that the variability in albedo symmetry is driven by variation in tropical and subtropical cloudiness, with patterns in agreement with non-neutral phases of ENSO. 

CMIP6 models are found to typically overestimate the variability in inter-hemispheric asymmetry, and underestimate the degree of symmetry, compared to observations. The bias in models is largely driven by biases in mid-latitude reflected shortwave radiation. Mid-latitude clouds are also found to play a significant role in model albedo symmetry response to strong forcing: models with large loss of mid- and high-latitude clouds in the Southern hemisphere restore the initial asymmetry, due to relative Northern hemisphere darkening, produced in the models in response to abrupt 4xCO2 forcing and subsequent warming.

Here we discuss albedo distribution and variability in satellite-derived products, and across model generations, pointing at inter-hemispheric symmetry as a useful model diagnostic, and as indicator of cloud feedback mechanisms.

How to cite: Bender, F.: Cloud regulation of inter-hemispheric albedo symmetry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3190, 2022.

EGU22-3359 | Presentations | CL2.1

Observational study of time-varying climate feedback parameter 

Jonathan Chenal, Benoît Meyssignac, and Robin Guillaume-Castel

The climate sensitivity is the central metric for evaluating the amplitude of climate change. It is inversionally proportional to the climate feedback parameter which can be estimated with observations of surface temperature (T), radiative forcing (F) and Earth energy imbalance (EEI). Since EEI is proportional to the time derivative of the ocean heat content, EEI can be derived from in situ temperature/salinity measurements or, equivalently, from the thermosteric component of sea level rise. Here we use a regression method applied to T, F and in situ temperature as well as thermosteric sea level to estimate the climate feedback parameter over the 20th century. Several recent climate studies have shown that the feedback parameter changes with time, because of the spatial pattern of warming. We evaluate the time variations of the climate feedback parameter over 1900- 2020 by applying the regression method to different periods within the 20th century. For the first time, we confirm with observations that the climate feedback parameter does change with time, and responds to external forcings such as major volcanic eruptions, as well as to climate internal variability. We also demonstrate that we need a consistent and reliable observing systems across time to derive a credible climate feedback parameter time series.

How to cite: Chenal, J., Meyssignac, B., and Guillaume-Castel, R.: Observational study of time-varying climate feedback parameter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3359, 2022.

EGU22-4120 | Presentations | CL2.1

Global Trends in Downward Surface Solar Radiation from Spatial Interpolated Ground Observations during 1961-2019 

Menghan Yuan, Thomas Leirvik, and Martin Wild

Downward surface solar radiation (SSR) is a crucial component of the Global Energy Balance. Many studies have examined SSR trends; however, they are often concentrated on specific regions due to limited spatial coverage of ground based observation stations. To overcome this spatial limitation, this study performs a spatial interpolation based on a machine learning method, Random Forest, to interpolate monthly SSR anomalies using a number of climatic variables (various temperature indices, cloud coverage, etc.), time point indicators (years and months of SSR observations), and geographical characteristics of locations (latitudes, longitudes, etc). The predictors that provide the largest explanatory power for interannual variability are diurnal temperature range and cloud coverage. The output of the spatial interpolation is a 0.5 × 0.5monthly gridded dataset of SSR anomalies with complete land coverage over the period 1961-2019, which is used afterwards in a comprehensive trend analysis for i) each continent separately, and ii) the entire globe.

The out-of-sample cross-validation shows that the applied machine learning method is able to capture 49% of the interannual long-term variations in observed SSR, which demonstrates the robustness of the method and shows that the interpolated dataset could serve as a foundation for further SSR research.

The current research was published in Journal of Climate (Yuan, Leirvik, and Wild, 2021). Based on the established work, we propose to carry out more extensions:

  • We will evaluate the model’s forecasting accuracy. Yuan, Leirvik, and Wild (2021) validated the model against the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) over the period from the 1950s until 2013. The recent update of GEBA until 2019 makes possible the forecast validation over the more recent period 2014-2019. Not only is the validation an out-of-sample verification, but it will also test the model’s ability in predicting future values.
  • We further propose to use external SSR data to cross validate our interpolated dataset. By external, we mean these data are not included in the GEBA and therefore not used in training the model. This validation will provide further proof for the robustness of our method and the reliability of our dataset. We aim to use World Radiation Data Center (WRDC) and Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) in this application. In particular, we will conduct a correlation analysis and calculate spatial sampling errors that arise from estimating the temporal variability of SSR for a grid box (0.5×0.5) from a point observation.
  • Following the aforementioned in-depth validation of our interpolated dataset, we aim to use it as a reference to assess the performance of the global climate models in CMIP6. Based on our constructed dataset, we aim to implement a comprehensive evaluation of the extent of the discrepancy between CMIP6 model simulations and our synthetic observations. A weighted-average ensemble series could be further developed by giving the better performing models larger weights and less competent models lower weights.

How to cite: Yuan, M., Leirvik, T., and Wild, M.: Global Trends in Downward Surface Solar Radiation from Spatial Interpolated Ground Observations during 1961-2019, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4120, 2022.

EGU22-4908 | Presentations | CL2.1

Effect of phase angle on estimation of Earth reflectance 

Alexander Marshak, Alfonso Delgado Bonal, and Yuri Knyazikhin

The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) was launched in February 2015 to a Sun-Earth Lagrange-1 (L1) orbit, approximately 1.5 million kilometers from Earth towards the Sun.  It observes the full, sunlit disk of Earth from a unique vantage point with the two instruments: the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) and the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) Advanced Radiometer (NISTAR).  The Earth-observing geometry of the EPIC instrument is characterized by a phase angle between 4° and 12°.  After March 2020 the range of phase angles for DSCOVR EPIC and NISTAR has been substantially decreased towards backscattering reaching 1.95 degrees in December 2020.  This provides a unique opportunity to study correlation between Earth reflectance and phase angle.  The dependence of reflection on scattering angle (180o – phase angle) is shown separately for ocean and land areas, for cloudy and clear pixels, while cloudy pixels are also separated to liquid and ice clouds.  A strong increase of reflectance towards back-scattering direction observed for all wavelengths.  The spectral signature of the dependence indicates the strongest increase at near IR (780 nm) where contribution from vegetation dominates.  Surface Bidirectional Reflectance Factor (BRF) acquired by EPIC and Terra MISR sensors over the Amazon basin is used to demonstrate the bi-directional effects of solar zenith and scattering angles on variation of reflected radiation from rainforest.  NISTAR observations also demonstrate an increase with scattering angle for all bands but the strongest one is for B-band radiance (0.2–4 μm).

How to cite: Marshak, A., Delgado Bonal, A., and Knyazikhin, Y.: Effect of phase angle on estimation of Earth reflectance, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4908, 2022.

It is now well known that CMIP6 models have a higher average and range of climate sensitivities than previous generations of models, which has been shown to be in part caused by weaker negative short wave radiative cloud feedbacks in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. These weaker negative cloud feedbacks are understood to be caused by a number of factors, including warm rain precipitation bias and Southern Ocean (SO) deep convection slowdown.

We find that coupled models in strong forcing (abrupt quadrupling of CO2) experiments with greater reductions in Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical and SO cloud cover and thus albedo also exhibit greater polar amplification in the SH, namely: increased poleward heat transport, greater surface warming at high latitudes, and a decrease in Antarctic surface albedo. Precipitation increases in the Antarctic polar region with warming, but not evenly; liquid-phase precipitation increases in the Antarctic sea ice zone while ice-phase precipitation increases on the continent. These responses occur roughly three decades after the onset of forcing, and continued surface warming in models with greater SH extratropical cloud loss beyond this point occurs mainly in the SH extratropics, especially at high latitudes, rather than globally.

Here, we aim to explore the connection between Antarctic warming and cloudiness in the SH extratropics and SO. Detailing the process of Antarctic warming in these models can help to explain some of the intermodel spread in Antarctic polar responses to GHG forcing, as well as to further constrain predictions of future climate changes in response to anthropogenic forcing, as these models also include some of the highest climate sensitivities of the CMIP6 ensemble.

How to cite: Jönsson, A. and Bender, F.: Southern Ocean cloud reductions in CMIP6 forcing experiments as a contributor to intermodel spread in Antarctic warming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5374, 2022.

EGU22-5457 | Presentations | CL2.1

On differences in climate feedback evolution in abrupt4xCO2 climate model experiments 

Kai-Uwe Eiselt and Rune Graversen

Climate sensitivity – the response of the Earth’s surface temperature to radiative forcing – and climate feedbacks are important and widely used metrics to gauge global climate change. In recent years it has become clear that climate sensitivity and feedback change over time in numerical climate model experiments but the reasons for this change are not yet well understood. We investigate the abrupt4xCO2 experiment as simulated by multiple members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phases 5 and 6 and apply a radiative kernel method to decompose climate feedback into contributions from physical processes. We extract two groups of models, one with small (G1) and one with large (G2) global mean lapse-rate feedback change over time. It is found that the model groups differ with respect to warming and feedback patterns and that the Arctic stands out as the region with the biggest between-group differences. We retrace these Arctic changes to the different evolution of Arctic sea ice in both model groups. A further finding is that G1 members exhibit much more warming over the simulation period than G2s members. This appears to result from a more positive early cloud feedback in G1 than in G2. Further investigation is needed to uncover possible cause-effect relationships between Arctic changes and global feedbacks.

How to cite: Eiselt, K.-U. and Graversen, R.: On differences in climate feedback evolution in abrupt4xCO2 climate model experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5457, 2022.

EGU22-5605 | Presentations | CL2.1

Quality Assessment of SARAH-3: The new regional satellite-based Surface Solar Radiation data set from the CM SAF 

Jörg Trentmann, Uwe Pfeifroth, Jaqueline Drücke, and Roswitha Cremer

The incoming surface solar radiation has been defined as an essential climate variable by GCOS. Long term monitoring of this part of the earth’s energy budget is required to gain insights on the state and variability of the climate system. In addition, climate data sets of surface solar radiation have received increased attention over the recent years as an important source of information for solar energy assessments, for crop modeling, and for the validation of climate and weather models.

The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) is deriving climate data records (CDRs) from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite instruments. Within the CM SAF these CDRs are accompanied by operational data at a short time latency to be used for climate monitoring. All data from the CM SAF are freely available via www.cmsaf.eu.

Here we present the new edition of the SARAH climate data record of surface solar radiation from the CM SAF. The regional SARAH-3 climate data record (Surface Solar Radiation Dataset – Heliosat) is based on observations from the series of Meteosat satellites. SARAH-3 provides high-resolution data (temporal and spatial) of the surface solar radiation (global and direct) and the sunshine duration from 1983 to 2020 for the full view of the Meteosat satellite (i.e, Europe, Africa, parts of South America, and the Atlantic ocean). For the first time, this edition of the SARAH data record also provides user-oriented data of spectral radiation, namely the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) and the daylight (DAL); UV radiation parameters are also available upon request.

In this contribution we introduce the results from the comparison of the satellite-derived surface radiation with available surface measurements; the evaluation addresses the accuracy and the temporal stability of the satellite data using data from regional and global networks, e.g., BSRN, GEBA, ECA&D, CLIMAT, as well as, in the case of PAR and DAL, from individual stations. We present the improvements of the edition 3 of the SARAH data record compared to previous editions, in particular over snow-covered surfaces. The high accuracy and stability of these data records allow the assessment of the spatial and temporal variability and trends.

How to cite: Trentmann, J., Pfeifroth, U., Drücke, J., and Cremer, R.: Quality Assessment of SARAH-3: The new regional satellite-based Surface Solar Radiation data set from the CM SAF, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5605, 2022.

EGU22-5751 | Presentations | CL2.1

Spatial scales of internal variability of annual mean all-sky and clear-sky surface solar radiation: quantitative estimates using CMIP6 

Boriana Chtirkova, Doris Folini, Lucas Ferreira Correa, and Martin Wild

Internal variability, a natural source of uncertainty in climate projections, is important when one wants to distinguish between the forced signal and the random noise in the climate system. The downwelling surface solar radiation, a key climate variable, has been shown to exhibit unforced trends (i.e. trends exclusively due to internal variability) even on decadal timescales. These long-term unforced trends interfere with the forced signal and contribute to the decadal variations of SSR, known as global dimming and brightening. A common technique in observation analysis, which serves to reduce the contribution of internal variability and therefore give a better estimate of the forced signal, is the use of composite time series of multiple locations (averaging in space). We use annual mean data of 49 models from the pre-industrial control experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) to give a quantitative estimate of how much the system noise is reduced upon spatial averaging. We find that globally the standard deviation σ (which is proportional to the magnitudes of random trends) is reduced almost linearly with the horizontal grid increment Δx in the range 2 – 15 degrees. On coarser resolutions, deviations from a linear fit are observed, possibly because the patterns of ocean oscillations are not concentrated in compact forms in space. Comparing the rate of reduction of the noise with grid resolution (dσ/dΔx), we find that the noise in all-sky SSR is averaged out ~10 times faster (with increasing Δx) than the noise in clear-sky SSR. Numerical values estimated from the CMIP6 multi-model median and uncertainties estimated from the inter-model spread are dσ/dΔx = -0.11 ± 0.03 Wm-2/deg for all-sky SSR and dσ/dΔx = -0.01 ± 0.004 Wm-2/deg for clear-sky SSR. The all-sky SSR global mean σ for a 0.5 deg grid is 4.79Wm-2, while for clear-sky it is 0.66 Wm-2. Furthermore, dσ/dΔx is strongly dependent on the geographical location, being more than twice as large in China, compared to Europe for both all-sky and clear-sky SSR.

How to cite: Chtirkova, B., Folini, D., Ferreira Correa, L., and Wild, M.: Spatial scales of internal variability of annual mean all-sky and clear-sky surface solar radiation: quantitative estimates using CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5751, 2022.

Over the last decade, the total global anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursors have declined according to the most recent Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) emission inventory. The CEDS emission inventory used in CMIP6 (CEDSv17) has recently been updated and extended from 2014 until 2019 (version v_2021_02_05, CEDSv21). The role of the updated emissions and the trend beyond 2014 on the modeled atmospheric composition and radiative forcing (RF) using an atmospheric chemistry transport model (OsloCTM3), radiative transfer and kernel calculations will be presented. The results post 2014 are also compared to results with SSP2-4.5 scenario emissions as input. In addition, we present consistent modeling results for 2020, with CEDSv21 emissions for 2019 combined with the 2020 CovidMIP-emission perturbation, as aerosol precursor emissions declined further due to containment policies to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

For sulphate, the radiative forcing in 2014 relative to 2010 is stronger positive (+0.03 W m-2) using CEDSv21 compared to a neglectable RF using CEDSv17. In 2017 the RF using the SSP scenario and the updated CEDS are equal (+0.07 W m-2) as the SO2 emission reduction in China was included at the starting point of the scenarios (year 2015), but not in the historical emissions (CEDSv17) ending in 2014. Including the effect of COVID-19, the sulphate RF in 2020 was +0.11 W m-2 with 2010 as baseline, with the strongest positive forcing in Eastern China followed by the eastern part of the US. No regions show a negative sulphate RF in 2020 with respect to 2010.

For the total aerosol-radiation RF (including Black Carbon, primary organic aerosol, SOA, nitrate, and biomass burning aerosols) the RF was +0.05 W m-2 in 2019 relative to 2010 based on OsloCTM3 simulations and the most recent CEDS emission inventory. Extending the results to 2020 using estimates for COVID-19 emissions, the forcing is further strengthened to +0.07 W m-2.

How to cite: Skeie, R. B., Myhre, G., and Lund, M. T.: Changes in aerosol atmospheric composition and radiative forcing in OsloCTM3 over the past two decades – the effect of the updated CEDS emission inventory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6320, 2022.

EGU22-6540 | Presentations | CL2.1

A discussion of Earth's climate sensitivity and its long term dynamics 

John Bruun, Peter Young, P Geoffrey Allen, and Mat Collins

There is much current debate about the way in which the earth's climate and temperature are responding to anthropogenic and natural forcing. Current forecasts are dependent on the accuracy of how Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is evaluated. In the recent wide-ranging ECS sensitivity review and assessments of Sherwood et al (2020, Rev. Geophys. 58, e2019RG000678), they report a baseline ECS 5%–95% with a range of 2.3 °C to 4.7 °C. While this is an important and much needed quantification – this wide ECS uncertainty range, based largely on uncertainty around total radiative forcing (TRF), is also problematic for our geophysical based community. The ECS value as viewed by policy and global strategy negotiators is currently only understood to a 70% (= 2.4 / 3.5) physically resolved level of resolution. An open question (to discuss in this talk) is it possible to resolve this physical measurement more accurately and what are the current main issues that need to be accommodated? As part of this discussion we present the work of Young, Allen and Bruun (2021): a re-evaluation of the Earth's surface temperature response to radiative forcing (2021, ERL, 16, 054068). In that paper we have re-assessed the current evidence at the globally averaged level by adopting a generic 'data-based mechanistic' modelling strategy that incorporates statistically efficient parameter estimation. This identifies a low order, differential equation model that explains how the global average surface temperature variation responds to the influences of total radiative forcing. The model response includes a novel, stochastic oscillatory component with a period of about 55 years (range 51.6–60 years) that appears to be associated with heat energy interchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. These 'quasi-cycle' oscillations, which account for the observed pauses in global temperature increase around 1880, 1940 and 2001, appear to be related to ocean dynamic responses, particularly the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. The model explains 90% of the variance in the global average surface temperature anomaly and yields estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) (2.29 °C with 5%–95% range 2.11 °C to 2.49 °C) and the transient climate response (TCR) (1.56 °C with 5%–95% range 1.43 °C to 1.68 °C), both of which are smaller than most previous estimates. When a high level of uncertainty in the TRF is taken into account, the ECS and TCR estimates are unchanged but the ranges are increased to 1.43 °C to 3.14 °C and 0.99 °C to 2.16 °C, respectively. This then gives the 70% physical resolution limit in ECS mentioned above. Current work is in progress to test this ECS re-evaluation approach using the CMIP6 models. We will discuss some on-going findings of these model signal assessments which include a specific focus on resolution of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean pentedecadal modes.  

Peter C Young, P Geoffrey Allen and John T Bruun (2021). A re-evaluation of the Earth's surface temperature response to radiative forcing, Environ. Res. Lett. 16 054068, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abfa50.

How to cite: Bruun, J., Young, P., Allen, P. G., and Collins, M.: A discussion of Earth's climate sensitivity and its long term dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6540, 2022.

EGU22-6578 | Presentations | CL2.1

Assessment of present-day aerosol optical depth from modern aerosol-climate models, reanalyses, and satellite products 

Annika Vogel, Ghazi Alessa, Robert Scheele, Lisa Weber, Oleg Dubovik, Peter North, and Stephanie Fiedler

Despite the implication of aerosols for radiative forcing, there are di erences in aerosol estimates from both, observations and models. This study quanti es di erences between current estimates of aerosol optical depth (AOD) to address two questions: (1) How well do we know the large-scale spatio-temporal pattern of present-day AOD across state-of-the-art data? (2) Has the representation of AOD improved across phases of aerosol-climate model intercomparison projects? To answer these questions, we analyze spatio-temporal patterns of the present-day monthly mean AOD from 94 global datasets. The data is taken from eight satellite retrievals, four aerosol-climate model intercomparison projects, two global reanalyses, one operational ensemble product, one climatology and one merged satellite product covering periods between 1998 and 2019. The evaluation includes new satellite data from SLSTR and aerosol-climate models of CMIP6 and AeroCom-III. The comprehensive data assessment allows us to evaluate the performance of individual products and models concerning di erent spatial and temporal aspects. Our assessment is based on metrics for a detailed investigation with respect to di erent spatio-temporal characteristics of AOD.

Our results highlight spatio-temporal di erences in AOD across datasets, were the performance of individual data sets varies with respect to the di erent spatio-temporal metrics assessed. Global mean AOD of individual satellites ranges between -11% to +17% around a satellite mean of 0.14. The ensemble means from the aerosol-climate model intercomparison projects fall within the satellite range, but individual models can di er considerably. Reanalyses and climalologies are typically closer to the satellite mean than aerosol-climate models. No systematic improvement from earlier to later phases of CMIP and AeroCom is found, although some regional biases have been reduced. Compared to the satellite and reanalysis data, all aerosol-climate ensemble means tend to overestimate AOD along extra-tropical storm tracks and underestimate AOD in regions of high aerosol load in South America, South Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. The identi ed di erences may be used to guide further e orts to improve satellite retrievals and model simulations for aerosols. In addition, the uncertainty in observed AOD implies that a model evaluation based on a single satellite product might draw biased conclusions. This underlines the need for continued e orts to improve both model and satellite estimates of AOD to facilitate a better understanding of aerosol e ects in the Earth system. At the same time, our analysis suggests that an assimilation of multiple satellite products for AOD would be bene cial to account for observational uncertainty.

Reference: Vogel, A., Alessa, G., Scheele, R., Weber, L., Dubovik, O., North, P., Fiedler, S. (2022). Uncertainty in aerosol optical depth from modern aerosol-climate models, reanalyses, and satellite products. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2021JD035483. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035483

How to cite: Vogel, A., Alessa, G., Scheele, R., Weber, L., Dubovik, O., North, P., and Fiedler, S.: Assessment of present-day aerosol optical depth from modern aerosol-climate models, reanalyses, and satellite products, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6578, 2022.

EGU22-7895 | Presentations | CL2.1

Calibrating Climate Models – what observations matter? 

Simon Tett, Jonathan Gregory, Nicolas Freychet, Coralia Cartis, Michael Mineter, and Lindon Roberts

Using the 20-year-old climate model, HadCM3, we show that it is possible to calibrate the model to multiple observations by algorithmically changing parameters in the atmospheric model.  Fourteen atmospheric parameters were modified using a state-of-the-art derivative free optimization algorithm (DFOLS). The calibration reduces model-observational difference against hemispheric scale averages of multiple observations for the 2001-2005 period and used about 90 evaluations of the atmospheric model. The observations considered were outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation, land temperature and precipitation, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric temperature and humidity, and global-average net flux into the Earth system. A 5-member ensemble was generated by starting the calibration from different initial parameter sets.

The calibrated model simulated large scale observations better than almost all CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble.  Spatial patterns of variables from the calibrated ensemble except for outgoing SW, land precipitation and mid-tropospheric humidity are as well simulated as in the CMIP6 ensemble. For these variables, spatial patterns are as well simulated as the CMIP5 ensemble.   In the calibrated ensemble, uncertainty in effective climate sensitivity (ECS; relative error of 10%) and the transient climate response (TCR; relative error of 5%) is small. This is the case for the response at doubling and quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. Uncertainties in regional climate change are also small.

A linear analysis which combines observational uncertainty with the Jacobian of observational sensitivity with respect to parameter change gives a parameter covariance matrix. This is in turn can be combined with the Jacobian of climate response with respect to parameter to give a linear estimate of uncertainty in climate response. The linear uncertainty is similar to the ensemble uncertainty. By increasing individual observational uncertainty in the  linear analysis, it is possible to see which observations are providing the constraints in  transient climate response at 4 times CO2. This analysis finds that almost all the constraint comes from land precipitation, outgoing SW radiation and the net flux, suggesting these are key observations to constrain climate model behaviour.

How to cite: Tett, S., Gregory, J., Freychet, N., Cartis, C., Mineter, M., and Roberts, L.: Calibrating Climate Models – what observations matter?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7895, 2022.

EGU22-7956 | Presentations | CL2.1

Dynamics of the global energy budget with a time dependent climate feedback parameter 

Robin Guillaume-Castel, Benoit Meyssignac, Rémy Roca, and Jonathan Chenal

The representation of the Earth global energy budget with a linear radiative response is unsufficient to correctly reproduce the long term surface temperature response ΔTs of climate to a radiative forcing ΔF, notably because of the dependence of the climate feedback parameter λ on the geographical pattern of surface temperature increase. The introduction of a time-dependent climate feedback parameter λ(t) is an appropriate solution to this matter. However, there is no agreement in the community on how to define such a variable λ even though numerous definitions with different methods and time periods have been introduced in the past decade.

From Budyko's (1969) original linear relationship between the surface temperature and the outgoing longwave radiation, we apply the perturbation theory to provide a rigorous theoretical development of the Earth energy budget with a time dependant climate feedback parameter, along with a robust definition of the climate feedback parameter. We show that the 0-dimensional energy balance model with a variable λ: N = ΔF + λ(t)ΔTs (where N is the Earth energy imbalance) is incomplete and should include a supplementary term Δλ(t)Ts(0), where Δλ(t) is the temporal evolution of the climate feedback parameter anomaly, and Ts(0) is the global mean surface temperature before the forcing is applied.

This new energy budget accurately reproduces the surface temperature response to abrupt increase of atmospheric CO2 of 8 multimillenia long coupled climate models at all time scales.It also accurately reproduces the simulated radiative response of the Earth under different abrupt CO2 increase scenarios. We confirm that the non linear radiative response of the Earth across abrupt increase CO2 scenarios is essentially explained by a positive dependence of the climate feedback parameter on temperature (the dependence of the climate feedback parameter on the forcing being marginal as in Bloch-Johnson et al. -2021-)

Analysis of the asymptotic form of the radiative response yields a new expression of the climate sensitivity to a given radiative forcing which explicitely depends on ① the climate feedback parameter before the forcing is applied (λ0), and ② on the climate feedback parameter temporal change (Δλ). We evaluate the climate sensitivity in the LongRunMIP experiments and find that 97% of the spread in climate sensitivity is explained by the spread in Δλ/λ0 showing that both the temporal change in the climate feedback parameter and its initial state are important to explain their climate sensitivity of climate models.

 

How to cite: Guillaume-Castel, R., Meyssignac, B., Roca, R., and Chenal, J.: Dynamics of the global energy budget with a time dependent climate feedback parameter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7956, 2022.

EGU22-7962 | Presentations | CL2.1

Cloud albedo's hemispheric asymmetry: why is the Southern Ocean cloudier? 

Joaquin Blanco, Rodrigo Caballero, Sandrine Bony, George Datseris, Bjorn Stevens, Yohai Kaspi, and Or Hadas

Recent work has shown that the hemispheric asymmetry in cloud albedo is maximized over extratropical oceans: the Southern Ocean exhibits greater climatological cloud albedo than its northern counterpart. We investigate the dynamical causes of such asymmetry by evaluating how albedo responds to a series of cloud controlling factors, namely: sea surface temperature (SST), pressure velocity at 500mb (ω500), Estimated Inversion Strength (EIS), Marine Cold Air Outbreak (MCAO) index, SST-T2m (ΔTsfc), and surface wind (Vsfc). A cloud albedo parameterization applied to MODIS optical thickness and fractional cloud cover is used in conjunction with ERA-Interim reanalysis products over oceanic points in the 50°–65° bands and for a 15-year period. Cloud properties are bin-averaged according to the range of variability of each predictor, using a 1-day timescale. We find that although ω500 strongly controls cloud albedo, it cannot explain the observed hemispheric asymmetry. Instead, we find that surface wind most skillfully explains the hemispheric albedo difference, due to the much greater winds in the Southern Ocean. We further show that Vsfc is not only a predictor of cloud albedo but it also controls physical processes in the boundary layer such that stronger winds ultimately lead to thicker and more horizontally extended cloud decks. The interhemispheric albedo asymmetry is significantly reduced in winter, responding to a strengthening of winds in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans during this season. Our findings have significant implications regarding GCM cloud biases over the Southern Ocean for the current climate, as well as for cloud feedback in a warming planet.

How to cite: Blanco, J., Caballero, R., Bony, S., Datseris, G., Stevens, B., Kaspi, Y., and Hadas, O.: Cloud albedo's hemispheric asymmetry: why is the Southern Ocean cloudier?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7962, 2022.

EGU22-8847 | Presentations | CL2.1

Quality check of ground-based hourly measurements of downwelling surface solar irradiance in China 

Xuemei Chen, Benoît Tournadre, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Benoît Gschwind, Kai Qin, and Philippe Blanc

Ground-based measurements of downwelling surface solar irradiance (DSSI) play an important role in many topics, such as the design and operation of solar energy systems, the study of the Earth radiation budget, and the validation of gridded DSSI products such as those derived from satellite imagery and reanalyses. For our purpose of validating satellite-based estimates of DSSI over China, we use ground-based hourly measurements at 99 stations operated by China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The measurements might not be perfect, including outliers, biases, sudden shifts or slow instrumental drifts that an extended quality check (QC) can detect. Physical threshold methods like the one proposed by Long and Dutton (2002) are frequently used to detect some of the physically impossible data records on an hourly or sub-hourly basis. However, in our case, we observed many inconsistent measurements that can pass such threshold-based QC. This is especially because diffuse and/or direct components of DSSI are not measured for most CMA stations and only global irradiance-based check for DSSI can be realized.

To detect drifts or jumps that might last for weeks or months in the time series of measured DSSI, we carried out the QC by comparing the clearness indices (i.e., the ratio between DSSI and horizontal irradiance at the top of atmosphere) from measurements with those from the ERA-5 reanalysis, in a similar approach to Urraca et al. (2017). Consistency of ERA-5's clearness indices was checked at first by comparison with high quality measurements from Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The same quality check was then applied to the hourly datasets at CMA stations. Over the years 2017-2018, our QC method led us to keep 52 stations fully and 19 stations partly.

Reference:

Long C.N. and Dutton E.G. BSRN Global Network recommended QC tests, V2.0, BSRN Technical Report, pp 3, 2002.

Urraca R., Gracia-Amillo A., Huld T., et al. Quality control of global solar radiation data with satellite-based products, Solar Energy 158, pp 49-62, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2017.09.032.

How to cite: Chen, X., Tournadre, B., Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., Gschwind, B., Qin, K., and Blanc, P.: Quality check of ground-based hourly measurements of downwelling surface solar irradiance in China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8847, 2022.

The highly successful Budyko-Sellers energy balance models are based on the classical continuum mechanics heat equation in two spatial dimensions. When extended to the third dimension using the correct conductive-radiative surface boundary conditions, the surface temperature anomalies obey the (nonclassical) Half-order energy balance equation (HEBE, with exponent h = ½) implying heat is stored in the subsurface with long memory.  In comparison, the classical EBE has h=1 and short (exponential) system memory.  Using short and long wave data from reanalyses, we discuss the empirical foundations of the FEBE.

Empirically, we find that both internal variability and the forced response to external variability are compatible with h ≈ 0.4.  Although already close to the HEBE and classical continuum mechanics, we argue that an even more realistic “effective media” macroweather model is a generalization: the fractional heat equation (FHE) for long-time (e.g. monthly scale anomalies).  This model retains standard diffusive and advective heat transport but generalize the (temporal) storage term.  A consequence of the FHE is that the surface temperature obeys the Fractional EBE (FEBE).  We show how the resulting FEBE can be been used for monthly and seasonal forecasts as well as for multidecadal climate projections. 

How to cite: Lovejoy, S.: Conductive-radiative boundary conditions and the fractional energy balance equation: predictions and projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8853, 2022.

EGU22-8860 | Presentations | CL2.1

Geostationary or not: can we consider Meteosat-8 viewing geometries as stationary? 

Benoît Tournadre, Xuemei Chen, Benoît Gschwind, and Philippe Blanc

The imagery from geostationary meteorological satellites (GEO) is broadly used to produce various datasets describing the Earth's surface and atmosphere, or else energy fluxes. Some GEOs are not on a strictly geostationary orbit, with an inclination relatively to the equatorial plane that can reach several degrees. A striking example is Meteosat-8: due to operation constraints, its orbit is currently oscillating on a daily basis between latitudes circa 7° N and 7° S. A consequence is that the actual viewing geometry differs from the simple calculation based on the stationary nominal subsatellite position. In the case of Meteosat-8, the viewing zenith angles can differ up to ±7°.

We study how these differences of viewing angles can influence top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance of Earth scenes. To achieve this, we simulate both clear-sky (i.e. cloudless) and overcast TOA reflectances corresponding to nominal and non-stationary viewing geometries of Meteosat-8 for the 0.6 µm channel during the period 2017-2018. Simulations are performed using the 1-D radiative transfer model DISORT within the libRadtran software package. They consider notably the anisotropy of surface reflectance which is modeled by the RossTick-LiSparse model of bidirectional reflectance distribution function and associated parameters of the product MCD43C1v6 derived from the imagery of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Overcast TOA reflectances are modeled with a plane-parallel thick liquid cloud.

In this presentation, we will describe how errors on TOA reflectances due to erroneous viewing geometry are distributed on the Meteosat-8 field of view and for different solar geometries. Both for clear-sky and overcast conditions, typical absolute errors range between 0.01 and 0.05, but can reach much higher values for specific geometries, notably close to the forward scattering direction.

How to cite: Tournadre, B., Chen, X., Gschwind, B., and Blanc, P.: Geostationary or not: can we consider Meteosat-8 viewing geometries as stationary?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8860, 2022.

EGU22-9786 | Presentations | CL2.1

Evaluation of the new TOA radiation fields in the CM SAF CLARA-A3 Climate Data Record. 

Nicolas Clerbaux and Tom Akkermans

The Climate Monitoring SAF (CM SAF) of EUMETSAT is finalizing the third version of the CLoud Albedo and RAdiation based on AVHRR climate data record (CLARA-A3). This new version will cover the 1979-2020 time period and will provide the Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes as new products.  

Although the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) products are acknowledged to be the golden standard w.r.t. TOA radiative flux data records, two limitations can be identified: (1) the products are relatively recent, e.g. starting in year 2000 for the EBAF product, and (2) the products have a relatively coarse spatial resolution of 1°x1° (lat-lon equal angle grid). The products developed within CM SAF aim to bridge these gaps, respectively by (1) a prolongation back in time to the late 1970s and (2) by increasing the spatial resolution to 0.25°x0.25°. A third advantage of the new CDRs lies in their synergy and compatibility with the other CDRs from the CM SAF CLARA product family (cloud mask and other cloud parameters, surface radiation, surface albedo, etc.) sharing common algorithms and processing chains.

The CLARA-A3 data record has been completed but not yet released, and hence we can present a validation of daily and monthly Reflected Solar Flux (RSF) and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR). CLARA-A3 performance is assessed in terms of bias, regional uncertainty (spatial RMSE), and stability. This is done primarily with the relatively recent CERES and GERB broadband-based reference products, and additionally also with long-term data records such as from HIRS, ERA-5, ISCCP, and ESA-CCI to assess the stability throughout the entire data record. Overall, the performance is within the expected target requirements. Regional uncertainty is however related to the number and of observations per day and their local time, which are both variable throughout the AVHRR and MetOp constellation history.

How to cite: Clerbaux, N. and Akkermans, T.: Evaluation of the new TOA radiation fields in the CM SAF CLARA-A3 Climate Data Record., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9786, 2022.

EGU22-10660 | Presentations | CL2.1 | Highlight

The TSI Instruments – What’s Old, What’s New, and What’s Next 

Greg Kopp

What is the Earth’s incoming energy, that is, the value of the total solar irradiance (TSI) powering the entire Earth’s climate system on an absolute scale? How accurate are the instruments providing these data? How stable are they on climate-relevant timescales? How well can the 43-year spaceborne TSI measurement record from over a dozen instruments be put into a single time-series composite for the climate- and solar-research communities? How can that composite be extrapolated to historical times using other solar-activity proxies via reconstructions? How do these historical-reconstruction models differ from each other, and how well do they agree with the current measurements? And what is the future of those measurements?

How to cite: Kopp, G.: The TSI Instruments – What’s Old, What’s New, and What’s Next, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10660, 2022.

EGU22-11277 | Presentations | CL2.1

Radiative forcing and climate feedbacks explain the cause of the suppressed late 20th century warming in CMIP6 models 

Christopher Smith, Piers Forster, and Hege-Beate Fredriksen

For the 1960-2000 period, the latest generation of climate models (CMIP6) shows less global mean surface temperature change relative to pre-industrial than that seen in observations. In contrast, the previous generation of models (CMIP5) warmed in line with observations over this period. It has been hypothesised that this suppressed late-20th Century warming seen in CMIP6 is caused by a stronger aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) than in CMIP5. We investigate the role that historical ERF plays in historical global mean warming. 

To diagnose the historical ERF we determine the climate feedback parameter from regression of top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance against temperature in abrupt-4xCO2 runs and use the diagnosed climate feedback values in the historical simulations from the same models. We evaluate the historical ERF in 35 CMIP6 and 27 CMIP5 models. We show that this method to estimate ERF is a fairly good approximation to more accurate estimates using atmosphere-only integrations from the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). The agreement with RFMIP is best in those models with little or no time dependence (curvature) in their climate feedback parameter. However, the historical ERF estimate can be improved by considering the non-linearity in climate feedbacks. To do this we repeat the process using a three time-constant regression model, showing that this method gives results that are much closer to RFMIP in those models that perform poorly with the one-parameter model.

Under both the one- and three-parameter methods, we show that total historical ERF is lower in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 for 1960-2000. This lower forcing at first appears to explain the differences in warming between the CMIP6 and CMIP5 ensembles. To dive deeper into the contribution to historical forcing we also estimate ERF contributions from greenhouse gases, other anthropogenic forcers (including aerosols), and natural forcing in the subset of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models that performed experiments from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP). The causes are a stronger negative aerosol ERF and weaker positive greenhouse gas ERF in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. However, these forcing differences are amplified by differences in climate sensitivity between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble, which leads to both a stronger aerosol cooling over 1960-1990 and a stronger greenhouse gas induced warming from 1990 in CMIP6.

How to cite: Smith, C., Forster, P., and Fredriksen, H.-B.: Radiative forcing and climate feedbacks explain the cause of the suppressed late 20th century warming in CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11277, 2022.

EGU22-12382 | Presentations | CL2.1

Assessment of angular distribution model of radiance: a comparison of the CIE model output with radiation transfer calculations. 

Sara Bham, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Benoit Gschwind, and Philippe Blanc

The angular distribution of solar downwelling at Earth surface is of interest namely for emerging applications such as in building design and management (energy efficiency, visual and thermal comfort).

The operational service of CAMS Radiation, named McClear, is a webservice providing the three solar downwelling irradiance components global, diffuse, direct normal on the ground under clear sky conditions from CAMS data with good accuracy ((Lefèvre et al., 2013), (Gschwind et al., 2019)). In preparation to the extension of McClear capabilities, we consider the CIE modelling approach (Darula and Kittler, 2002) as a natural option because it is widely used in the literature. The CIE modelling approach consists in the product of two functions: (1) the scattering function that relates the relative radiance of a sky feature to its angular distance from the sun and (2) the gradation function that explains the variation of the radiance with the angular distance of a sky element to the zenith angle. The basic assumption behind this approach is that the distribution of the radiation in the sky vault can be decomposed in these two functions. As a preliminary to the extension of McClear service, we would like to test the validity of this assumption. For this purpose, we have selected the Perez model (Perez et al., 1993, 1990) that is based on the CIE approach and show good poerformances (Alshaibani et al., 2020; Darula and Kittler, 2002).

We compared the downwelling angular solar radiance at the surface of the Earth calculated by the Perez model and by the Radiative Transfer Model libRadtran a software package used for radiative transfer calculations such as the distribution of the spherical radiance and irradiance (Mayer and Kylling, 2005) also used as basis of McClear irradiance model. In this comparison, we consider several meteorological situations with different atmospheric composition in ozone, water vapor, aerosols loads, etc., but also with different Sun-Earth geometry and different bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of the ground. This investigation was beneficial to evaluate the domain of validity of the CIE approach assumption. We described the methodology, discuss the results in view of the targeted application. and we provide some idea for an alternative to the CIE approach to extend McClear in a radiance model.

 

 

 

 

 

How to cite: Bham, S., Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., Gschwind, B., and Blanc, P.: Assessment of angular distribution model of radiance: a comparison of the CIE model output with radiation transfer calculations., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12382, 2022.

EGU22-13305 | Presentations | CL2.1

Observation-based reconciliation of the Earth's Energy Imbalance budget constraint 

Audrey Minière, Karina von Schuckmann, Maeva Monier, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, and Jean-Baptiste Sallée

The Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) represents the balance of heat fluxes between
the Earth and outer space in response to radiative forcings and associated climate feedbacks,
and as such is a key metric to understand and define global climate change. Recent
publications have shown that the EEI has doubled in the last two decades, which would have
major impacts on the different components of the Earth’s system. However, these results also
show inconsistencies in the quantification of this increase depending on the observing system
considered. In this study, we investigate two independent ways to estimate EEI from ocean
observations and from energy budget at the top of the atmosphere inferred from satellite. We
show that these two observing systems lead to consistent estimates of EEI variability and
amplitude over the period 2005-2019. Global Ocean Heat Content (GOHC) is derived from a
suite of ocean in situ temperature products, and is also compared to satellite estimate and to
ocean reanalysis estimate. We provide recommendations on how to achieve a consistent and
optimized observation-based comparison between estimates for the EEI budget constraint
approach from independent global climate observing system components and at different
time-scale ranging from interannual to decadal.

How to cite: Minière, A., von Schuckmann, K., Monier, M., Le Traon, P.-Y., and Sallée, J.-B.: Observation-based reconciliation of the Earth's Energy Imbalance budget constraint, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13305, 2022.

EGU22-13306 | Presentations | CL2.1

Libera's Split-shortwave Measurements and Their Application in Climate Research 

Maria Hakuba, Peter Pilewskie, Graeme Stephens, and the Libera Science Team

With a few exceptions, spaceborne measurements of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing reflected shortwave and emitted longwave radiation have been made over broad spectral bands covering the entirety of the solar spectral region, terrestrial infrared spectral region or the combination of both. Evidence suggests that separating the solar band into just two sub-bands, roughly equal in incoming solar irradiance levels but coincidently, where the atmosphere is nearly transparent to solar radiation in the visible (λ<700nm) and partially absorbing in the near-infrared sub-band (λ >700nm) primarily due to water vapor and clouds, provides great insight into the deposition of radiative energy in the atmosphere. Moreover, the two sub-bands also demarcate reflectance differences at the ground from different surface types such as vegetation, desert, ice and snow. Therefore, TOA reflected shortwave radiation in the two sub-bands are differently affected by changes in surface and atmospheric properties and support the characterization of processes relevant for shortwave absorption by the climate system, climate feedbacks, and Earth’s albedo variability with added insight into hemispheric albedo symmetry given the hemispheric differences in ocean, continent and cloud distributions. A new NASA Earth Radiation Budget mission, Libera, will directly measure the two sub-bands. We use UKESM1 simulations, Fu-Liou RTM calculations, SCIAMACHY reflectance and CLARREO OSSE output as proxies for Libera’s future data record to demonstrate applications of the shortwave sub-band knowledge in climate science.

How to cite: Hakuba, M., Pilewskie, P., Stephens, G., and Science Team, T. L.: Libera's Split-shortwave Measurements and Their Application in Climate Research, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13306, 2022.

EGU22-13489 | Presentations | CL2.1

Assessing Uncertainties and Variability 34 Years of Surface Radiative Fluxes and Radiative Closure Using GEWEX SRB Release4-IP 

Paul Stackhouse, Stephen Cox, J. Colleen Mikovitz, and Taiping Zhang

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produces 3-hrly shortwave and longwave surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes for the 1983-near present time period. The new Release 4 Integrated Product (IP) uses the newly recalibrated and processed ISCCP HXS product as its primary input for cloud and radiance data, replacing ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10 km instead of 30 km).  This first version retains a 1°x1° resolution enabling intercomparison against previous versions and other data sets such as CERES, but spans 34 years from July 1983 through June 2017 and was announced by Kummerow et al. 2019 (GEWEX News). This new IP product also uses an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS and other parameters such as near surface and skin temperatures from SeaFlux and LandFlux data sets.  In addition to the input data improvements, several important algorithm improvements have been made since Release 3. These include recalculated SW atmospheric transmissivities and reflectivities, updated ocean and snow/ice albedos, and variable total solar irradiance consistent with SORCE measurements. The LW code has been updated to improve the optical property treatment for clouds and aerosols are included in this version.  Radiative treatment of ice clouds is also improved in the LW. The variable aerosol optical properties for the SW and LW are specified using a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC).

Here we present an assessment of the LW radiative fluxes and the uncertainty of those fluxes relative to the various inputs to surface SW/LW flux measurements from BSRN and PMEL buoys measurements.  We review the validation of the SW and LW fluxes and then in terms of time series and then assess the products in terms of their long-term variability of the surface SW and LW net fluxes compared to multiple other data products including atmospheric reanalysis products.  The comparisons of radiative estimates to observations are performed at various temporal scales and aimed at investigation of agreement at longer time averages but accessing potential change in diurnal magnitude and daily variability.  Utilizing this uncertainty information, to access long-term variability of surface radiation components at selected region and global scales, considering satellite sampling/calibration “artifacts” as necessary.  At the longer time scales, the net SW and net LW the TOA and surface have implications toward closure of the energy budgets at the surface, we assess these compared to other studies on energy budget closure for the same selected global and regional scales.

How to cite: Stackhouse, P., Cox, S., Mikovitz, J. C., and Zhang, T.: Assessing Uncertainties and Variability 34 Years of Surface Radiative Fluxes and Radiative Closure Using GEWEX SRB Release4-IP, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13489, 2022.

EGU22-95 | Presentations | CL2.2

Predicting the occurrence of extreme El Nino events based on Schumann resonancemeasurements? 

Tamas Bozoki, Earle Williams, Gabriella Satori, Ciaran D. Beggan, Colin Price, Peter Steinbach, Anirban Guha, Yakun Liu, Anne Neska, Robert Boldi, and Mike Atkinson

Multi-station observations of Schumann resonance (SR) intensity document common behavior in the evolution of continental-scale lightning activity in two super El Niño events, occurring in 1997/98 and 2015/16. The vertical electric field component of SR at Nagycenk, Hungary and the two horizontal magnetic field components in Rhode Island, USA in 1997, and in 2014-2015, the two horizontal magnetic field components at Hornsund, Svalbard and Eskdalemuir, United Kingdom as well as in Boulder Creek, California and Alberta, Canada exhibit considerable increases in SR intensity from some tens of percent up to a few hundred percent in the transition months preceding the two super El Niño events. The UT time distribution of anomalies in SR intensity indicates that in 1997 the lightning activity increased mainly in Southeast Asia, the Maritime Continent and India, i.e. the Asian chimney region. On the other hand, a global response in lightning is indicated by the anomalies in SR intensity in 2014 and 2015. SR-based results are strengthened by comparison to independent lightning observations from the Optical Transient Detector and the World Wide Lightning Location Network, which also exhibit increased lightning activity in the transition months. The increased lightning is attributable to increased instability due to thermodynamic disequilibrium between the surface and the mid-troposphere during the transition. Our main conclusion is that variations in SR intensity may act as a precursor for the occurrence and magnitude of these extreme climate events, and in keeping with earlier findings, as a precursor to maxima in global surface air temperature. As a continuation of our research we plan to set up a webpage dedicated to monitor the actual state of global lightning activity based on SR measurements which may contribute to the early identification of increased instability preceding the next super El Niño event. 

How to cite: Bozoki, T., Williams, E., Satori, G., Beggan, C. D., Price, C., Steinbach, P., Guha, A., Liu, Y., Neska, A., Boldi, R., and Atkinson, M.: Predicting the occurrence of extreme El Nino events based on Schumann resonancemeasurements?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-95, 2022.

EGU22-1347 | Presentations | CL2.2

ENSO Atmospheric Feedbacks under Global Warming 

Tobias Bayr and Mojib Latif

Two atmospheric feedbacks play an important role in the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the amplifying zonal wind feedback and the damping heat flux feedback. Here we investigate how and why both feedbacks change under global warming in climate models of 5th and 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) under a “business-as-usual” scenario (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The amplifying wind feedback over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) becomes stronger in most climate models (on average by 8 ± 8%) as well as the damping heat flux feedback over the eastern and central equatorial Pacific (EEP and CEP, respectively) (on average by 18 ± 11%). The simultaneous strengthening of both feedbacks can be explained by the stronger warming in the EEP relative to the WEP and the off-equatorial regions, which shifts the rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation to the east and increases mean convection and precipitation over the CEP. This in turn leads to a stronger vertical wind response during ENSO events over the CEP that strengthens both atmospheric feedbacks. Further, we separate the climate models into sub-ensembles with STRONG and WEAK ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, as 2/3 of the models underestimate both feedbacks under present day conditions by more than 40%, causing an error compensation. Despite both sub-ensembles show similar changes in the mean state and ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, the ENSO dynamics in WEAK remain weaker relative to STRONG under global warming. Due to the more realistic ENSO dynamics, we postulate that the ENSO predictions of the models in STRONG should be more reliable. Finally, we analyze the relation between changes in ENSO amplitude and ENSO atmospheric feedbacks. We find that models tending to simulate an eastward shift of the wind feedback and increasing precipitation response over the EEP during Eastern Pacific El Niño events also exhibit an increasing ENSO amplitude.

How to cite: Bayr, T. and Latif, M.: ENSO Atmospheric Feedbacks under Global Warming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1347, 2022.

EGU22-1420 | Presentations | CL2.2

Changes in ENSO characteristics in CESM1 simulations with considerably altered background climate states 

Joke Lübbecke, Thea Siuts, and Tobias Bayr

Changes in the tropical Pacific background state can affect interannual variability, i.e. the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by altering feedbacks that control ENSO’s characteristics. Here, the sensitivity of ENSO to the background climate is investigated utilizing two Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations in which the solar constant is altered by ±25 W/m2. The resulting stable warm and cold climate mean state simulations differ in terms of ENSO characteristics such as amplitude, frequency, asymmetry and seasonality. Under warm mean state conditions, ENSO reveals a larger amplitude and occurs at higher frequencies than in the cold mean state and control run. The warm run also features an increased asymmetry and a stronger seasonal phase-locking. We relate these changes to the differences in the mean state and the amplifying and damping feedbacks. In the warm run, a shallower mean thermocline results in a stronger subsurface-surface coupling while the cold run reveals reduced ENSO variability due to a reduced Bjerknes Feedback in accordance with a deeper mean thermocline and enhanced mean surface wind stress. A strong zonal advective and Ekman feedback further contribute to the large ENSO amplitude in the warm mean state run. However, in light of the large temperature contrast between the simulations of up to 6 K in the tropical Pacific, the results also highlight the robustness of ENSO dynamics under vastly different climate mean states.

How to cite: Lübbecke, J., Siuts, T., and Bayr, T.: Changes in ENSO characteristics in CESM1 simulations with considerably altered background climate states, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1420, 2022.

Tropical cyclone (TC) can pump heat downward through inducing intense vertical mixing. Many efforts have been made to estimate the magnitude of TC-induced ocean heat uptake (OHU), but the spatiotemporal variability of TC-induced OHU remains unclear. This study uses satellite-observed sea surface temperature (SST), subsurface temperature profiles, and turbulent heat fluxes to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of TC-induced OHU and its potential impacts on ocean heat content (OHC) during the period 1985-2018. It is found that category 3-5 TCs dominate the TC-induced OHU, accounting for ~70% of overall amount of TC-induced OHU globally each year. The time series of TC-induced OHU in global and regional oceans exhibit evident interannual-to-interdecadal variability, which is closely related to the TC power dissipation index (PDI). We further decompose PDI into TC intensity, frequency, and duration and find that category 3-5 TC frequency, annually averaged TC intensities, and durations all contribute to the variability of TC-induced OHU except that the averaged TC intensities have no significant relations with the TC-induced OHU in the North Indian Ocean, South Indian Ocean, and Southwest Pacific. In addition, the TC-induced OHU is shown to be responsive to equatorial SSTs rather than tropical SSTs, implying that the TC-induced OHU is modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The TC-induced OHU might have the potential to influence OHC variability, particularly in the equatorial Pacific, where there is significant TC-induced OHU convergence. It has an important implication that TC-induced OHU might have potential effects on ENSO evolution.

How to cite: Fan, K., Wang, X., and Shao, C.: Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Induced Ocean Heat Uptake and Its Effect on Ocean Heat Content, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2966, 2022.

EGU22-3263 | Presentations | CL2.2

Asymmetries in the ENSO phase space 

Dietmar Dommenget and Maryam Al Ansari

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics are best described by the recharge oscillator model, in which the eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (T) and subsurface heat content (thermocline depth; h) have an out-of-phase relationship. This defines a 2-dimensional phase space diagram between T and h. In an idealized damped oscillator, the phase space diagram should be a perfectly symmetrical circle with a clockwise propagation over time. However, the observed phase space shows strong asymmetries in this diagram. In this study we will illustrate how the ENSO phase space can be used to discuss the phase-dependency of ENSO dynamics. The normalized spherical coordinate system allows to define a phase-depending ENSO growth rates and phase transition speeds. Based on these we discuss the implications of the observed asymmetries are for the dynamics and predictability of ENSO, with a particular focus on the variations in the growth rate and coupling of ENSO along the oscillation cycle.  Using linear and non-linear recharge oscillator models we will show how noise and internal dynamics are driving ENSO at different phases of the ENSO cycles. We will illustrate that a non-linear growth rate of T can explain most of the observed non-linear phase space characteristics.

How to cite: Dommenget, D. and Al Ansari, M.: Asymmetries in the ENSO phase space, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3263, 2022.

EGU22-3833 | Presentations | CL2.2

Representation of extreme El Niño events and associated atmospheric moisture flux convergence patterns in observations and CMIP6 global climate models 

Janeet Sanabria, Pierluigi Calanca, Raphael Neukom, Nadine Salzmann, and Carlos Carrillo

Extreme precipitation in the western tropical Andes have significant socio-economic impacts in northern Peru and Ecuador. Previous investigations have shown that high impact episodes were caused by atmospheric moisture flux convergence associated with strong El Niño events in the eastern Pacific Ocean, identifying two patterns: the one emerging during the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, and the one emerging during the 2015/2016 event.

In this contribution, we discuss the ability of CMIP6 global climate models to represent these two types of extreme El Niño events, by analyzing the associated atmospheric moisture transport patterns. Based on SST observations, we identified historical extreme El Niño events using the relative Niño34 index, an index recently proposed for addressing ENSO in a warming climate. We also use ERA5 to compare with the moisture flux of CMIP6. We compared 13 CMIP6 models with the historical record (1901-2014). We found the following: (1) six of the models simulated the two extremes El Niño patterns; (2) 62% of the models identify 4.5 extreme El Niño events; and (3) only 27% of the models represent the seasonality of the moisture flux convergence overestimating the moisture flux convergence branch located to the south (4° S) of its normal position (4° N).

Our results provide a starting point to investigate the impacts of climate change and its impacts on atmospheric dynamics and associated extreme events at the regional level in tropical South America.

How to cite: Sanabria, J., Calanca, P., Neukom, R., Salzmann, N., and Carrillo, C.: Representation of extreme El Niño events and associated atmospheric moisture flux convergence patterns in observations and CMIP6 global climate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3833, 2022.

EGU22-4711 | Presentations | CL2.2

Energy Export from the Tropical Pacific via the Atmosphere - a Lagrangian Perspective 

Katharina Baier, Marina Duetsch, Lucie Bakels, Michael Mayer, Leopold Haimberger, and Andreas Stohl

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked with energy exchange between the ocean, atmosphere and space. It has a global impact on weather, agriculture and the economic system. In association with ENSO, we analyse the atmospheric energy export from the Tropical Pacific with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART using meteorological input data from the ERA5 reanalysis. In this Lagrangian model, the atmosphere was filled homogeneously with five million particles, which were traced forward in time and represent the global atmospheric mass transport. From this Lagrangian reanalysis dataset covering the years 1979-2017, air masses residing within the Nino3.4 + Nino3 region and below 1 km are selected and followed 30 days forward in time. We found that some of these relatively warm air masses are transported to the Atlantic Ocean where they are mainly located at upper layers. Furthermore, we found strong correlations between the mass transport and the Nino3.4 Index, thus more air is exported to the Atlantic Ocean during El Niño conditions. This transported air further releases energy, as shown by a negative energy divergence. Even over the Sahel zone there is a significant signal, which indicates a direct atmospheric connection between West Africa and the Tropical Pacific. Based on our findings, the transported air might support drier surface conditions during El Niño in that region. In summary, the Lagrangian technique provides new insights into how energy is exported from the Tropical Pacific via the atmosphere and clarifies the relevance of atmospheric transport associated with ENSO.

How to cite: Baier, K., Duetsch, M., Bakels, L., Mayer, M., Haimberger, L., and Stohl, A.: Energy Export from the Tropical Pacific via the Atmosphere - a Lagrangian Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4711, 2022.

EGU22-4869 | Presentations | CL2.2

ENSO induced shifts of the Subarctic Front in the North Pacific over the past 700 ka: Evidence from planktic foraminiferal proxy data 

Lara Jacobi, Weng-si Chao, Dirk Nürnberg, Lester Lembke- Jene, and Ralf Tiedemann

The subarctic front (SAF) in the pelagic Pacific Ocean is the northernmost front that separates the Oyashio Current, which marks the southern boundary of the subpolar gyre, from the Kuroshio Current, the northern boundary of the subtropical gyre. Its strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradient is not a stable and permanent feature but shifts on timescales from interannual to glacial/interglacial. Yet the complex interplay of different driving mechanisms for this phenomenon is not yet entirely understood. In this study, we present newly retrieved data from the Emperor Seamount chain that reveals a link between long-term ENSO (El Niño /Southern Oscillation) dynamics in the tropics and shifts of the SAF. Here, we use marine sediment core SO264-45-2 (46°33.792’N, 169°36.072’E), recovered from the Emperor Seamount Chain during R/V SONNE Cruise SO264 in 2018 to reconstruct changes in (sub-) surface temperature and salinity via a combined Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses of the shells of the shallow living planktic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides and the near thermocline living Neogloboquadrina pachyderma. This reveals that SST and salinity do not show a clear glacial/interglacial pattern during the last 280 ka and thus we assume that the SAF was south of the core site during this time interval. Prior to 280 ka, SSTs were significantly higher and show greater amplitudes than after 280 ka, while the subsurface temperature stayed relatively constant. Such high SSTs together with the observed higher sea surface salinities prior to 280 ka indicate that water from the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition zone temporarily reached the core site in form of a warm surface water lens. This points to a northward displacement of the SAF of at least 5° so that it was located right above the core site. This way very small north and southward displacements e.g. in relation to glacial/interglacial periods would have caused SST changes as high as we observe them in the time interval 280-700 ka. Notably, this assumed shift of the SAF at 280 ka occurs simultaneously to a change from more La Niña-like to more El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. Moreover, warm phases in the time interval 280-700 ka seem to occur during times of more La Niña-like conditions in the tropics, while cold phases seem to be related to more El Niño-like conditions. As our study area is linked to the subtropical gyre via the Kuroshio Current, we assume that the observed shifts of the SAF at our study site were caused by the enhancement of the Kuroshio Current in time intervals of more La Niña-like like conditions.

How to cite: Jacobi, L., Chao, W., Nürnberg, D., Lembke- Jene, L., and Tiedemann, R.: ENSO induced shifts of the Subarctic Front in the North Pacific over the past 700 ka: Evidence from planktic foraminiferal proxy data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4869, 2022.

EGU22-5921 | Presentations | CL2.2

El Niño diversity during the Holocene in relation to mean state changes 

Isma Abdelkader Di Carlo, Pascale Braconnot, Olivier Marti, Matthieu Carré, and Mary Elliot

A consensus has not yet been reached when it comes to the long-term changes in ENSO diversity. Indeed, for models that simulate larger warming in the East Pacific, some studies show an increase of Eastern Pacific (EP) events, and a decrease in Central Pacific (CP) events, or the opposite. Similar apparent contradictions also emerge from analyses of the changes in EP versus CP El-Niño events in the Holocene. In this study, we consider the Holocene period as a means to study long-term El Niño variability in a context relatively close to the present. Indeed, the Holocene period allows studying the changes related to the long-term trend induced by the long-term evolution of the Earth’s orbit and seasonal evolution induced by the orbital forcing. We use two 6,000-year-long transient simulations of the IPSL model and two different indicators to characterize El Niño events. 

This study shows that we can have opposite results on the behavior of EP and CP events depending on the type of indicator used to characterize El Niño. We will discuss the reasons for these contrasting results, as seen in two previous studies. Moreover, we will test the extent to which the types of events are induced by changes in the tropical Pacific’s thermocline.

How to cite: Abdelkader Di Carlo, I., Braconnot, P., Marti, O., Carré, M., and Elliot, M.: El Niño diversity during the Holocene in relation to mean state changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5921, 2022.

EGU22-6181 | Presentations | CL2.2

The ENSO-induced South Pacific Meridional Mode 

Boris Dewitte, Emilio Concha, Diego Sepulveda, Oscar Pizarro, Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Marcel Ramos, and Aldo Montecinos

The meridional modes (MM) in the Pacific are the conduit by which mid to high-latitudes external forcing (NPO/SPO) can trigger or influence ENSO; While for the Northern Hemisphere the MM (NPMM) is considered a precursor of ENSO, the MM-ENSO relationship in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is more uncertain. Here we show that, rather than acting as a precursor, strong MMs of the SH (SPMM) are dominantly (~66%) triggered by strong El Niño events in observations and the historical simulations of the Large Ensemble CESM (LENS-CESM). In the LENS-CESM simulations, strong ENSO-induced SPMMs are associated with a precursor signal (warm SST anomalies) of the coast off northern central Chile (20°S-35°S) resulting from the combined effect of the propagation of oceanic downwelling coastal Kelvin waves and the reduction in upwelling favorable winds due to an activated Pacific South American (PSA) pattern during the development of coincident ENSO cycle. The analysis of the simulations of the Coupled Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) indicate a large diversity in terms of the ENSO-SPMM relationship, which can be interpreted as resulting from the spread in the meridional location of the center of action of the SPMM and of the seasonality of the SPO variance. We further discuss how ENSO-induced SPMM interferes with the coincident ENSO cycle and contributes to its asymmetry.

How to cite: Dewitte, B., Concha, E., Sepulveda, D., Pizarro, O., Martinez-Villalobos, C., Ramos, M., and Montecinos, A.: The ENSO-induced South Pacific Meridional Mode, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6181, 2022.

EGU22-6406 | Presentations | CL2.2

Two types of Coastal El Niño events 

Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Boris Dewitte, René D. Garreaud, Leandra Loyola, and Emilio Concha

Coastal El Niño events —instances of anomalous surface ocean warming in the eastern Tropical Pacific not associated to basin-wide events— have received a great deal of attention following the strong coastal event of early 2017. This event was associated to large increases in precipitation and widespread damage in Ecuador and Northern Peru comparable to that during the 1997/98 El Niño event. Despite their importance, it is currently not well understood whether these events are essentially driven by local dynamics or are a local manifestation of large-scale modes of climate variability, a possibility that may increase their predictability prospects. We identify three Coastal El Niño events and 7 Coastal La Niña events occurring in the last 40 years. We show that these events are at least partially driven by large-scale processes and can be grouped in two types. The first type is driven by westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific and occur in the initial stages of the development of basin-wide El Niño events. The second type occurs in association with active phases of the North Pacific Meridional Mode and are characterized by large-scale positive wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. We develop a simple model that provides theoretical underpinnings for the WES feedback-driven type of events. Finally, we show that these two types of events have counterparts in the CESM Large Ensemble and discuss their projected change under global warming.

How to cite: Martinez-Villalobos, C., Dewitte, B., Garreaud, R. D., Loyola, L., and Concha, E.: Two types of Coastal El Niño events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6406, 2022.

EGU22-6460 | Presentations | CL2.2 | Highlight

La Niña Came to Eden 

Michael J. McPhaden and Christina Karamperidou

In 1929, Dr Friedrich Ritter and his mistress Dore Strauch left their spouses and the turmoil of post-World War I Germany for the remote, rugged and uninhabited volcanic island of Floreana in the Galapagos archipelago.  Their dream was to live self-sufficiently in an idyllic tropical setting unspoiled by civilization. Yachts stopping at Floreana after Ritter and Strauch established a homestead reported on their pioneering enterprise to the outside world in the early 1930s. The news created a sensation that subsequently attracted other settlers to the island, one of whom, a mysterious Austrian faux baroness, vexed Ritter and Strauch to the point of open hostility. Not all the participants in this drama survived the experience of colonizing Floreana though. A prolonged drought that gripped the island from 1933 to 1935 led to food shortages and ultimately the death of Dr. Ritter, who unwittingly ate tainted chicken out of desperation. The bizarre intrigues, extraordinary adventures, and struggles to endure on Floreana were chronicled in Strauch’s 1936 memoir “Satan Came to Eden” and a 2013 Hollywood documentary based on it.  A story that has not been told is how climate variability, and in particular an extended period of cold La Niña conditions in 1933-35, led to the drought that caused food shortages on the island and the untimely demise of Dr. Ritter.  We will use atmospheric reanalyses, contemporaneous marine meteorological observations in the vicinity of islands, and historical accounts from the broader Pacific basin, to describe the evolution of the 1933-35 La Niña and how it affected the human drama as it unfolded on Floreana Island. This protracted La Niña event had impacts felt in other parts of the globe as well and in particular was a major influence on development of the 1930s Dust Bowl in the southern plains of the United States.

How to cite: McPhaden, M. J. and Karamperidou, C.: La Niña Came to Eden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6460, 2022.

EGU22-6877 | Presentations | CL2.2

ENSO Impact on Summer and Fall Temperatures in Western Europe 

Maialen Martija-Diez, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, and Jorge López-Parages

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main predictor of global climate variability at interannual time scales. Its impact on European precipitation variability has been deeply studied, but not so much its impact on temperature. Recent studies suggest that the increasing intensity in heatwaves seems to be related to the interannual variability of the mean temperature. Therefore, the predictability of temperature could be very useful for the future adaptation to potentially severe heatwaves. In this study, we investigate the impact of ENSO on maximum and minimum temperature throughout the whole seasonal cycle with the aim of finding some predictability and trends. Due to the observed changing teleconnection between ENSO and remote regions, we consider the possible nonlinear and nonstationary relationship as well. For our study, we choose a region in western Europe that has experienced intense heatwaves, and which is also the main region of air temperature interannual variability in Europe. We found a nonseasonal, nonlinear and nonstationary impact. During decades prior to 1980s, warmer conditions are related to La Niña events in summer. Nevertheless, El Niño events seem to be linked to the increase in fall temperatures during decades after the 1980s. These warmer conditions are found to be correlated as well with ENSO characteristics from previous seasons, which suggest a potential source for improving the seasonal forecast. We analyze the underlying dynamical mechanisms of the detected teleconnection, and we found a circumglobal response for summer and an arching-like pattern in fall. Finally, we investigate the possible reasons explaining this variable impact among seasons and decades.

How to cite: Martija-Diez, M., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., and López-Parages, J.: ENSO Impact on Summer and Fall Temperatures in Western Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6877, 2022.

EGU22-8519 | Presentations | CL2.2

Tropical Atlantic modulation of the ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic 

Jake W. Casselman, Bernat Jiménez-Esteve, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection towards the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) represents a robust response, where sea surface temperatures (SST) are positively correlated with ENSO. Following the peak of TNA SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the decaying phase of ENSO, the TNA can influence the local Walker circulation, creating a Rossby Wave Source (RWS) over the Caribbean region in boreal spring and summer. Additionally, when combined with the Pacific SSTAs, this Walker cell perturbation forms the Pacific-Caribbean Dipole (PCD), acting predominantly in the developing phase of ENSO and impacting the North Atlantic European (NAE) region. However, the influence of the TNA SSTAs on the Caribbean RWS and resulting NAE perturbation in the decaying phase of ENSO remains unclear. Thus, we use a series of sensitivity experiments with a simplified atmospheric general circulation model to determine how the TNA modulates the inter-basin teleconnection and how this modulation can influence the NAE response. We find that the NAE region is modulated by the TNA SSTA and Caribbean region in the boreal spring and summer. In boreal spring, a propagating Rossby wave train modulates the NAE region, while in boreal summer, the influence is nonlinear and tends to strengthen ENSO’s influence in the NAE region. Overall, our analysis presents a deeper understanding of the inter-basin Walker cell interactions in the decaying phase of an ENSO event and the TNA’s modulation of the teleconnection to the NAE region.

How to cite: Casselman, J. W., Jiménez-Esteve, B., and Domeisen, D. I. V.: Tropical Atlantic modulation of the ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8519, 2022.

Atmospheric teleconnections are remote impacts associated with atmospheric processes transmitted through planetary-scale waves like the Rossby wave. Tropical heat sources like El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could force such planetary-scale wave responses. The El Nino events are classified into Non-OLR El Nino events and OLR El Nino events based on its convective signal over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific using an OLR based El Nino Index. The key purpose of this study is to analyse the difference in teleconnection patterns during these OLR based El Nino events and understand its baroclinic-to-barotropic mode responses using an intermediate complexity atmospheric circulation model called Quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM). The study analyses the difference in the distribution of atmospheric variables and Rossby wave source (RWS) anomalies during Non OLR El Nino events and OLR El Nino using QTCM experiments. It is seen that the OLR El Nino events have a larger barotropic contribution to the positive anomaly of SLP over the western Pacific and a larger baroclinic contribution to the negative anomaly of SLP over the eastern Pacific compared to Non-OLR El Nino events. This is due to stronger baroclinic Rossby waves from the eastern and central tropical Pacific that propagates towards western Pacific and force barotropic wave trains due to barotropic-baroclinic interactions. Also, on analysing the effective RWS forcing and its components over certain regions during OLR and Non OLR El Nino, we see a difference in their distribution due to contributions from the absolute vorticity advection by divergent wind flow and subtropics vortex stretching. We further investigates the baroclinic-to-barotropic interaction over the midlatitude and tropical teleconnection through baroclinic-barotropic interaction terms in barotropic Rossby wave during Non OLR El Nino and OLR El Nino. It was seen that among the barotropic Rossby wave source interaction terms, the shear advection term has the largest contribution and the mean baroclinic zonal wind that advects the baroclinic zonal wind anomaly due to tropospheric heating is the most relevant component. The effective RWS over the tropics and the subtropics arise from the mean state baroclinic flow that acts on the baroclinic wind structure arising due to the ENSO tropospheric heating that spreads over a scale of equatorial radius of deformation from the deep tropics to the subtropics. This baroclinic wind structure is stronger for OLR El Nino compared to Non OLR El Nino. The experiment is also extended to preindustrial and mid-Holocene periods using data from CESM. The mid-Holocene OLR El Nino has a weaker RWS response than the preindustrial OLR El Nino due to the relatively weaker tropospheric heating and temperature structure, resulting in a weaker baroclinic wind structure.

How to cite: Suresan, S. and Joseph Mani, N.: Understanding ENSO related tropical teleconnections using Quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9861, 2022.

EGU22-10063 | Presentations | CL2.2

Is there an impact of resolving the stratosphere on ENSO? A first approach from EC-EARTH 

Mario Rodrigo, Javier García-Serrano, and Ileana Bladé

The European Consortium EC-EARTH climate model version 3.1 is used to assess the effects of a well-resolved stratosphere on the representation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and in particular on the simulation of extreme El Niño events, known as super El Niños. Three 100-year long experiments with fixed radiative forcing representative of present climate are compared: one with the top at 0.01hPa and 91 vertical levels (HIGH-TOP or HT), another with the top at 5hPa and 62 vertical levels (LOW-TOP or LT), and another high-top experiment but with the stratosphere nudged to the climatology of HT from 10hPa upwards (NUDG). The differences in vertical resolution between HT and LT start at around 100hPa. By comparing HT with LT we explore the influence of increased vertical resolution above the tropopause on ENSO, while by comparing HT with NUDG we evaluate the influence of stratospheric variability, with special emphasis on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). No extreme ENSO events occur in the two simulations without QBO (LT and NUDG), while HT is able to simulate such extreme events. These super El Niños coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the westerly phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere during boreal summer and fall. Previous studies have proposed an interaction between El Niño and IOD-related sea surface temperature anomalies to explain the existence of super El Niños. Our work suggests that this interaction alone is not enough in our climate model to simulate super El Niños. We postulate that changes in the upper tropospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean-Maritime Continent during boreal summer and fall, related to the westerly phase of the QBO, establish favourable conditions for the development of El Niños, increasing the probability of having super El Niños.

How to cite: Rodrigo, M., García-Serrano, J., and Bladé, I.: Is there an impact of resolving the stratosphere on ENSO? A first approach from EC-EARTH, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10063, 2022.

EGU22-10456 | Presentations | CL2.2

Revisiting ENSO and IOD contributions to Australian Precipitation 

Giovanni Liguori, Shayne McGregor, Martin Singh, Julie Arblaster, and Emanuele Di Lorenzo

Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co-variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co-variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modelling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.

How to cite: Liguori, G., McGregor, S., Singh, M., Arblaster, J., and Di Lorenzo, E.: Revisiting ENSO and IOD contributions to Australian Precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10456, 2022.

EGU22-10892 | Presentations | CL2.2

Mining Large Climate Model Datasets to Make Multi-Year Initialized ENSO Forecasts with Actionable Skill 

Matthew Newman, Hui Ding, Jiale Lou, Sam Lillo, Michael Alexander, Andrew Hoell, and Andrew Wittenberg

Seasonal to interannual forecasts made by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) undergo strong climate drift and initialization shock, driving the model state away from its long-term attractor. Here we explore initializing directly on a model’s own attractor, using an analog approach in which model states close to the observed initial state are drawn from a “library” obtained from prior uninitialized CGCM simulations. The subsequent evolution of those “model-analogs” yields an ensemble forecast, without additional model integration. This technique is applied to CGCMs either used operationally by NCEP or as part of the CMIP6 dataset. By selecting from these long control runs those model states whose monthly SST and SSH anomalies best resemble the observations at initialization time, hindcasts are then made for leads of 1-36 months during 1958-2019. Deterministic and probabilistic skill measures of these model-analog hindcasts are comparable to, and in some regions better than, traditionally assimilation-initialized CGCM hindcasts after 1982, for both the individual models and the multi-model ensemble.

On average, ENSO skill of AC>0.5 exists for forecast leads of 18 months for forecasts initialized in summer. More important, we find that not only were some notable ENSO events predictable two years (or more) ahead of time, but that we can both identify forecast “hits” and avoid “false alarms” -- at the time of forecast -- by using a simple forecast signal-to-noise metric (SNR; root-mean-squared ensemble mean divided by ensemble spread), determined from the large (O(100) member) model-analog ensemble. That is, our analog ensemble approach can be used to make actionable ocean predictions, where forecasts of opportunity can be identified well in advance.

Since these long-lead hindcasts do not require full-field initialization, they have also been extended back prior to 1900. We find that while there has been considerable multi-decadal variation in seasonal ENSO skill, there has been no long-term trend for leads up to about 6-9 months. However, while multi-year ENSO skill appears to have also occurred in the past for a few large ENSO events, in the past thirty years it has occurred with considerably greater frequency, raising the possibility that it is a more recent phenomenon.

How to cite: Newman, M., Ding, H., Lou, J., Lillo, S., Alexander, M., Hoell, A., and Wittenberg, A.: Mining Large Climate Model Datasets to Make Multi-Year Initialized ENSO Forecasts with Actionable Skill, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10892, 2022.

Atmospheric moisture is perturbed during ENSO variation, as can be quantified using regression with ENSO indices. Seasonal and annual anomalies of the water column, horizontal moisture flux, surface evaporation, rainfall, and other basic variables, associated with the sea-surface temperature indices NINO34 and Pacific-Indian Dipole are evaluated from ERA5 reanalyses over 1980-2019. The skill in the corresponding regression coefficients (at one standard deviation) from historical climate simulations by the ten (only) CMIP6 models for which the vertically integrated flux was submitted is assessed, subject to the statistical uncertainty in ENSO from 40-year series. The ten-model mean fields are encouragingly realistic, although ENSO anomalies in the equatorial Pacific extend farther westward. The future change for the period 2040-2079 under the SSP585 scenario of rising greenhouse gases is evaluated. There is generally little change in the standard deviation in the two indices or in the SST and wind anomalies. The water column, moisture flux, and rainfall anomalies tend to be amplified in the low latitudes, but with limited change in the teleconnections to higher latitudes. The climatological changes in rainfall and moisture flux resemble those of ENSO in the tropical Indo-Pacific, in part linked to a small positive shift in both the indices. Elsewhere, widespread increases in water column, evaporation, midlatitude surface pressure, and, of course, temperature are not ENSO-like. Implications for the reliability of future projected means and variability will be considered. An obvious recommendation is that the vertically integrated moisture fluxes be routinely output by climate models and be a requested variable in future CMIPs.

How to cite: Watterson, I.: Atmospheric moisture anomalies associated with ENSO and future changes in CMIP6 simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10905, 2022.

EGU22-13182 | Presentations | CL2.2

Persistent discrepancies between observed and modeled trends in the tropical Pacific 

Richard Seager, Mark Cane, and Naomi Henderson

The trends over recent decades in tropical Pacific sea surface and upper ocean temperature are examined in observations, an ocean reanalysis and the latest models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Six and the multimodel Large Ensembles archive.  Comparison is made using three metrics of SST trend - the east-west and north-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and a pattern correlation for the equatorial region - as well as change in thermocline depth.  It is shown that the latest generation of models persist in not reproducing the observed SST trends as a response to radiative forcing and that the latter are at the far edge or beyond the range of modeled internal variability.  The observed combination of thermocline shoaling and lack of warming in the equatorial cold tongue upwelling region is similarly at the extreme limit of modeled behavior.  The persistence over the last century and a half of the observed trend towards an enhanced east-west SST gradient, and in four of five observed datasets to an enhanced equatorial north-south SST gradient, is also at the limit of model behavior. It is concluded that it is extremely unlikely that the observed trends are consistent with modeled internal variability.  Instead, the results support the argument that the observed trends are a response to radiative forcing in which an enhanced east-west SST gradient and thermocline shoaling are key and that the latest generation of climate models continue to be unable to simulate this aspect of climate change.

How to cite: Seager, R., Cane, M., and Henderson, N.: Persistent discrepancies between observed and modeled trends in the tropical Pacific, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13182, 2022.

EGU22-13397 | Presentations | CL2.2

The response of ENSO teleconnections to future dynamical and thermal changes 

Nicholas Tyrrell and Alexey karpechko

Future climate change will lead to both dynamical and thermal changes to the atmosphere, and these changes will affect the transmission and impact of ENSO-related teleconnections. As the dynamical atmospheric changes are a response to the radiatively-forced temperature changes, it is difficult to separate these effects. In this study we use a novel nudging technique to separately apply the future thermal and dynamical changes from CMIP6 models to the ECHAM6 atmospheric model.

First there is a training stage where the atmospheric model is nudged to a chosen future climate, and the nudging tendencies are recorded. In the second stage the nudging tendencies for temperature and winds can be applied individually or together to replicate different aspects of the future climate. During the second stage the nudging tendencies are independent of the current model state. This means that idealised ENSO SST experiments can be performed within the constructed future climates, and the model can respond to those perturbations. The study focuses on the how ENSO teleconnections, particularly relating the northern hemisphere polar vortex, will respond to future thermal and dynamical changes.

How to cite: Tyrrell, N. and karpechko, A.: The response of ENSO teleconnections to future dynamical and thermal changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13397, 2022.

EGU22-13513 | Presentations | CL2.2

Impacts of the ENSO cycle on climate and coffee production in Colombia 

Michael Sanderson, Cathryn fox, Katie Hodge, José Ricardo Cure, Daniel Rodríguez, Luigi Ponti, and Andrew Paul Gutierrez

Colombia is the world’s third largest coffee exporter. The high altitude and rich soils of Colombia’s mountains and valleys create ideal conditions for growing coffee plants. The coffee industry in Colombia mostly consists of small, family-owned farms, and provides many hundreds of thousands of jobs in rural areas. Climatic conditions during the growing season strongly influence the quality and overall yields of coffee beans. Links between the ENSO cycle and coffee production will be investigated. Additionally, coffee crops in Colombia face a variety of threats originating from climate change, including loss of quality and increased prevalence of pests (e.g., the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei) and diseases (e.g., the coffee leaf rust, Hemileia vastatrix). High resolution climate data are needed to assess how the climate of the coffee growing areas could change and assist growers to adapt to these changes. The ability of three regional climate models (RCA4, RegCM4.3 and CRCM5) to reproduce observed teleconnections between the ENSO cycle and climate in coffee-growing areas of Colombia is also assessed. These regional climate model simulations were produced for the Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment (CORDEX) for the Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico (CAM) domain. They represent the highest resolution climate data available for Colombia. Projected changes in the ENSO cycle and possible impacts on coffee production will also be investigated. This study is believed to be the first to explicitly use the CAM-CORDEX results for Colombia.

How to cite: Sanderson, M., fox, C., Hodge, K., Cure, J. R., Rodríguez, D., Ponti, L., and Gutierrez, A. P.: Impacts of the ENSO cycle on climate and coffee production in Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13513, 2022.

In the past, one widely used technique to diagnose Lagrangian aspects of the atmospheric circulation has been the computation of trajectories. Trajectories provide detailed information along the pathways of individual parcels, but one has to consider a vast amount of them in order to obtain continuous-in-time, volume-filling information. As a consequence, analysing trajectories can be a painstaking task. To overcome this problem, we developed an alternative method allowing one to continuously diagnose Lagrangian information about the atmospheric circulation on a Eulerian grid. The method is based on the advection of passive tracer fields and includes a relaxation term. One thus obtains accumulated Lagrangian information, such as the recent meridional or vertical parcel displacement or the recent parcel-based diabatic heating, for each grid point at any time step. This convenient output format allows one to analyse large data sets (such as reanalysis data) in a straightforward manner. We suggest our method to be particularly useful in the field of synoptic climatology. Here, we present the underlying idea of the method and motivate its utility on the basis of examples that make use of reanalysis data.

How to cite: Mayer, A. and Wirth, V.: Diagnosing Lagrangian aspects of the atmospheric circulation by Eulerian tracer advection with relaxation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1189, 2022.

EGU22-2186 | Presentations | CL2.3

Synoptic climatological analysis on the appearance features of extremely low temperature days around Germany for 1971/72 to 2010/11 winters 

Kuranoshin Kato, Kazuo Otani, Chihiro Miyake, Koshi Nagayasu, and Haruko Kato

Seasonal cycle including day-to-day fluctuations shows great variety from region to region even among the middle/higher latitudes. Thus to know such detailed seasonal cycle for each region is the common basis for deeper understanding of (1) seasonal backgrounds of extreme meteorological or climatological events and (2) that of cultural generation leading to the cultural understanding education through the “seasonal feeling”. For example, the “seasonal feeling” of the severe winter relating to the traditional event for driving the winter away (“Fasnacht”) around Germany might be greatly reflected by the intermittent appearance of the extremely low temperature events, although the winter mean temperature there is lower only by about 3~5℃than in the southern part of the Japan Islands area.

Hamaki et al.(2018, although written in Japanese) suggested, based on the case study for 2000/01 winter, that the appearance of such events with large intraseasonal variation are greatly controlled by that of the Icelandic low. Furthermore, a case study for the same winter by Miyake and Kato (EGU2020 Assembly) pointed out that the rapid seasonal increase in the appearance frequency of extremely low temperature events there as the intraseasonal variation around mid-December, although the seasonal mean the Icelandic low already appeared in mid-October.

However, the climatological appearance features of the extremely low temperature events for longer periods should be examined further. Thus we will describe the detailed synoptic climatological features for 1971/72 to 2010/11 winters, based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In this study, the days with daily mean surface air temperature less than or equal to -7℃ are referred to as the "extremely low temperature days".

Amplitude of the intraseasonal variation of the surface air temperature around Germany increased seasonally in association with the beginning of the nearly minimum seasonal mean temperature period (around December to February), resulting in the seasonal increase in the appearance frequency of the extremely low temperature days from around December. Such features are clearly found for the 10 winters (referred to as the "typical years") of the total 40 winters.

In the typical years, amplitude of the intrasesaonal variation increased rapidly around December (although this timing is somewhat different among the typical winters) and the persistent extremely low temperature days for about a week appeared two or three cycles in a winter. According to the case study for a typical winter (e.g., 1984/85 winter), while the temperature around Germany was relatively higher at the eastward shift phase of the Icelandic low due to the strong warm air advection by the SW-ly wind, the temperature was extremely low there when the Icelandic low was weakened and retreated westward as pointed out for the case study for 2000/2001 by Hamaki et al. (2018). It is also noted that the low corresponding to a part of the equivalent barotropic wave train lined up zonally was located around Germany in the extremely low temperature phase in 1984/85 winter.

How to cite: Kato, K., Otani, K., Miyake, C., Nagayasu, K., and Kato, H.: Synoptic climatological analysis on the appearance features of extremely low temperature days around Germany for 1971/72 to 2010/11 winters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2186, 2022.

EGU22-2598 | Presentations | CL2.3

Characterization of regional heatwaves in southern South America 

Solange Suli, David Barripedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Matilde Rusticucci

Heat waves (HWs) can cause large socioeconomic and environmental impacts and they have become more intense and frequent across most land regions in the world since 1950s. Additionally, they will further increase in the future even if global warming stabilized at 1.5ºC. Therefore, HWs are one of the climate extremes of major concern. In this study we obtain for the first time a regional catalogue of warm season (WS: October – March). HW events for southern South America (approximately 17–60ºS, 35–80ºW) during 1979 – 2018 using maximum temperature data from 137 conventional weather stations. Moreover, we assess the synoptic patterns associated with regional HWs from daily data of the ERA5 reanalysis.

By applying hierarchical clustering of local HWs at the weather stations, we identify five regions based on stations with high co-occurrence of simultaneous HWs. Regional HW events are defined as WS periods of at least three consecutive days with maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile of the local TMax distribution on more than 40% of the stations of each region. We also calculate the accumulative maximum temperature anomaly to rank the magnitude of regional HW events.

For all regions, HW events are associated with significant and co-located positive 500 hPa geopotential height (z500) anomalies and with the intensification of the Northwestern Argentinean Low (NAL, The exception is the southernmost region, where HW events are linked to barotropic extratropical systems blocking the westerly flow. HW events affecting northern and central-eastern transitional regions are also associated with positive outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies, pointing to enhanced subsidence by intensification of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), as well as an intensification of the northerly low-level flow associated with South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) events. The results suggest that small changes in the magnitude and / or location of the aforementioned signatures can shape HWs over different regions of the domain. Finally, the frequency of regional HW days shows a significant increase over central and northern Chile, central Argentina, and northern Argentinian Patagonia. On the whole, except for the two southernmost regions, the most severe regional events have occurred during the 21st century.

How to cite: Suli, S., Barripedro, D., García-Herrera, R., and Rusticucci, M.: Characterization of regional heatwaves in southern South America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2598, 2022.

EGU22-4439 | Presentations | CL2.3

Do Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist? 

Assaf Hochman, Gabriele Messori, Julian Quinitng, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Christian Grams

The subseasonal variability of the extratropical large-scale atmospheric flow is characterized by recurrent or quasi-stationary circulation anomalies, termed weather regimes. Despite the usefulness of these regimes in numerous meteorological and socioeconomic applications, there is an ongoing debate as to whether they represent physical modes of the atmosphere, or are merely useful statistical categorizations. Here, we answer this question for wintertime Atlantic-European regimes. We argue that dynamical systems theory applied to a refined regime definition provides strong evidence in support of most weather regimes being physically meaningful. This finding underpins the broad relevance of weather regimes, for understanding the response of the atmosphere to external forcing, supporting subseasonal weather forecasting, and down scaling of climate projections.

Referene

Hochman, A., Messori, G., Quinting, J. F., Pinto, J. G., & Grams, C. M. (2021). Do Atlantic-European weather regimes physically exist? Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095574. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095574

How to cite: Hochman, A., Messori, G., Quinitng, J., Pinto, J. G., and Grams, C.: Do Atlantic-European Weather Regimes Physically Exist?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4439, 2022.

EGU22-4665 | Presentations | CL2.3

A CMIP6 evaluation of summer synoptic circulations linked to short-term droughts over Europe 

Pedro Herrera Lormendez, Amal John, Hervé Douville, and Jörg Matschullat

Automated classifications of atmospheric circulations are a well-known tool to characterize large-scale patterns that predominantly determine day-to-day weather variations. Through its potential influence on the relative frequency of circulation patterns, global warming can also enhance or mitigate the occurrence of extreme weather events.

Here, we use a subset of 22 CMIP6  global climate models (GCMs) to assess their ability to capture these recurrent circulation patterns and their implication for the European climate and its projected changes.

We investigate links between synoptic circulations and short-term meteorological drought events that span one month. We employ the automated Jenkinson-Collison classification to determine daily atmospheric features based on mean sea-level pressure. We compute the conditional probability of dry days related to each circulation type. Furthermore, we confirm the influence of these patterns on the occurrence of dry months by computing the monthly relative frequency anomalies of the synoptic circulations given months where the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was below minus 1. We evaluate the ability of the historical runs of global climate models (GCMs) to reproduce the observed features from the ERA5 reanalyses over the 1961-1990 reference period. Links between the mean directional flow characteristics of the circulation types and the dry days and months are well represented by most GCMs. The most robust relationships were found for the anticyclonic, easterly, and low flow types. These circulations are generally associated with a lack of precipitation and therefore show higher than average occurrences during dry months. 

How to cite: Herrera Lormendez, P., John, A., Douville, H., and Matschullat, J.: A CMIP6 evaluation of summer synoptic circulations linked to short-term droughts over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4665, 2022.

EGU22-5784 | Presentations | CL2.3

A worldwide assessment of the Jenkinson-Collison atmospheric circulation classification and observational uncertainty based on different reanalysis. 

Juan Antonio Fernández-Granja, Swen Brands, Joaquín Bedia, Ana Casanueva, and Jesús Fernández

Lamb Weather Types (LWT, 1972) are a classical method in synoptic climatology consisting in a subjective classification of atmospheric circulation based on an expert interpretation of sea-level pressure (SLP) fields centered on the British Isles. Jenkinson-Collison (1977) made a subsequent adaptation of the original LWT approach (JC-WT) to obtain an automated, objective method that is also applicable to other locations. In spite of its potential for an objective large-scale circulation typing in extratropical regions of the world, to date, JC-WT has been seldom used in the Southern Hemisphere, which requires a minor modification of its original formulation to this aim. This study sets the grounds for the adoption of the JC-WT classification worldwide by applying it centered in all cells of a 2.5º global grid (excluding a 10º wide equatorial band). We present an open, 6-hourly JC-WT catalogue on this grid for the period 1979-2005 built from five popular reanalysis products (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5761258). This catalogue is used to evaluate the observational uncertainty linked to the representation of atmospheric circulation in the different reanalyses.

Overall, we find empirical evidence of the suitability of the JC-WT classification for the regional assessment of atmospheric circulation outside the tropics, including the Southern Hemisphere. We also find important differences in the JC-WT representation by different reanalyses in some regions, such as the Tibetan Plateau, the Andes, Greenland and Antarctica, in light of the comparison of their respective occurrences and transition probabilities. These inconsistencies may compromise the robustness of circulation-based model assessments relying on a single reanalysis in these regions.

How to cite: Fernández-Granja, J. A., Brands, S., Bedia, J., Casanueva, A., and Fernández, J.: A worldwide assessment of the Jenkinson-Collison atmospheric circulation classification and observational uncertainty based on different reanalysis., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5784, 2022.

EGU22-7522 | Presentations | CL2.3

Hydroclimate variability in the Czech Republic studied through subjective and objective classifications of atmospheric circulation 

Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Miroslav Trnka, Ondřej Lhotka, Jan Balek, Petr Štěpánek, and Pavel Zahradníček

Investigation of the relationship between climatological variables and circulation patterns expressed by various classifications of circulation types is a key procedure in synoptic climatology. This study provides new insights into circulation drivers of hydroclimate based on an analysis of precipitation and soil drought in multiple parts of the Czech Republic with respect to the subjective classification of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and objective classification based on the flow strength, flow direction, and vorticity during the 1961–2020 period. Circulation types are investigated in regard to their contributions to the total precipitation, mean daily precipitation totals, and precipitation probability. Types with a westerly airflow and a trough over Central Europe exhibit the highest proportions in precipitation totals. Types with a cyclone over Central Europe, especially combined with a northwestern or northeastern airflow, result in the highest daily mean totals and precipitation probability. Types with a southwestern airflow transport more precipitation to western parts of the Czech Republic, while those with a northeastern airflow transport more precipitation to the eastern parts, with a slight seasonal shift in the gradient axis between winter and summer. Circulation drivers of drought episodes are investigated based on soil-drought values calculated from the SoilClim model. Increased frequencies of north-eastern anticyclonic types, and decreased frequencies of directional and cyclonic are important for the origin and course of soil-drought episodes. In addition, the suitability of both classifications for long-term trends analysis is investigated.

How to cite: Řehoř, J., Brázdil, R., Trnka, M., Lhotka, O., Balek, J., Štěpánek, P., and Zahradníček, P.: Hydroclimate variability in the Czech Republic studied through subjective and objective classifications of atmospheric circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7522, 2022.

EGU22-8162 | Presentations | CL2.3

Analysis of the western Mediterranean cyclone characteristics for the past decades 

Emília Dolgos, Rita Pongrácz, and Judit Bartholy

Large scale circulation patterns are highly affected by midlatitude cyclones, their evolution, intensity, associated weather events (e.g., precipitation, consequent flood, etc.). The current study focuses on the western Mediterranean region where cyclones definitely play an important role in shaping the weather and climate of the area. Moreover, this region is considered as one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, which implies the need for special attention. As the literature highlights, the geographical complexity of the Mediterranean region provides ideal conditions for cyclogenesis. Detailed analyses and a better understanding of the Mediterranean cyclones are crucial to develop proper adaptation strategies addressing future regional climate changes. For this purpose, we aim to analyze western Mediterranean cyclones on the basis of reanalysis data as reference, and then, compare the results of the historical runs of global climate models to the reference results. The analysis uses mean sea level pressure data from 1901 to 2020 with 6-hour temporal resolution, and daily precipitation in the western Mediterranean region and its vicinity. The results can serve as important input for impact modelers to further analysis and for decision makers to take into account when building long-term strategies.

How to cite: Dolgos, E., Pongrácz, R., and Bartholy, J.: Analysis of the western Mediterranean cyclone characteristics for the past decades, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8162, 2022.

EGU22-8214 | Presentations | CL2.3

Past and future climate trends focused on synoptic patterns in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula 

Sergi Ventura, Gara Villalba, Josep Ramon Miró, and Juan Carlos Peña

Based on a centenary meteorological observatory, the mean temperature and frequency of heat waves at the city of Barcelona is increasing due to global warming. The number of heat wave episodes by climatic periods of 30 years, with a specific percentile 95 (P95) of summer maximum temperature, has been increased from 23 (1951-1980) with a P95 of 31˚C to 59 days (1991-2020) with a P95 of 32.8˚C.  Therefore, it is necessary to analyse weather circulation to understand the reason and predict the possible future impacts. In this study, heat wave events for 1951-2020 have been analysed with ERA5 data, in order to classify the different synoptic patterns and each evolution. It is possible to get climate trends from past reanalysis data, but it is also interesting to predict future possibilities. Most of the previous research is focused on temperature and precipitation while the target of this study is the mesoscale and synoptic circulation. For this reason, Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) data at 0.11˚ grid mesh has been used to analyse the future scenarios compared to the historical simulations of the same source. More specifically, for this study, it was necessary to download mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and 500hPa geopotential height (GHP) data. Due to the big amount of information, it has been applied a statistical method called Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to simplify and reduce the dimensions of the sample. Afterwards, working on a cluster analysis has been necessary to classify the simplified data. The synoptic patterns remain relatively constant throughout the last climatic periods according to ERA5, being the synoptic type “Shallow Cyclone or Undetermined pressure gradient” the recurrent type to cause heat wave periods in summer. CORDEX data shows more dynamism in comparison to ERA5 reanalysis and expects to remain similar until 2100. Northwest and north advections are expected to increase by 7.3% and 6.6% respectively and lows or cyclones are expected to decrease by 8.3% according to RCP4.5 scenarios.

How to cite: Ventura, S., Villalba, G., Miró, J. R., and Peña, J. C.: Past and future climate trends focused on synoptic patterns in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8214, 2022.

EGU22-9269 | Presentations | CL2.3

Classification of Circulation Types Associated with Freezing Precipitations in Bulgaria 

Dimitar Nikolov and Christoph Beck

Ice storms, caused by severe freezing rains and freezing drizzles are among the major weather hazards in winter. They influence seriously the air and ground traffic, disturb and even interrupt the distribution of electricity by snapping power lines or standstill the production from wind farms.

The conducted research had two main goals: conducting of an automatic classification of the weather types connected with freezing rains and freezing drizzles and assessment of the possible impact of the expected climate change tendencies on these events for the region of Bulgaria.

Data about 180 freezing precipitation events in the period 1958/59-2014/15 has been used and information for the classification has been taken from the six hourly reanalysis upper-air data for the same variables at five standard air pressure levels (1000, 925, 850, 700 and 500 hPa) from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which covers the same period.

Due to the large amount of the classification outputs, it was decided to focus on the classification approaches which already had given good results during a former investigation in COST 733 – these are the methods based on cluster analysis such as KMN, CKM and DKM k-means clustering.

Classifications have been made mainly for five standard air pressure levels and additional meteorological variables have been included as well. Following variables have been combined as the most important for the determination of freezing precipitation: see level pressure, air temperature at 850 hPa, the precipitation amount and the persistence of the event itself. Firstly, we have made classifications with 9, 18 and 27 classes but without including the event. We received 750 classifications, but with very low percentages of freezing precipitations among the classes.

After that we continued only with the DKM and KMN classifications. We have added the freezing precipitation events and have given different weights (from 0 till 1) of the variables and examining the behavior of the classifications. Increasing stepwise the percentage of freezing rains and freezing drizzles in the classes, we have established an upper. limit of 17 % with 206 classifications left.

After that χ2 -test has been applied to each class of these classifications in order to emphasis those classes with freezing cases which are not uniform distributed.

All used classifications have been evaluated by the means of different evaluation metrics such as frequency of the freezing precipitation cases in the classification classes, and correlation matrix of the classes. All of the classifications have been made using the software developed in COST Action 733.

The project was supported by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD).

How to cite: Nikolov, D. and Beck, C.: Classification of Circulation Types Associated with Freezing Precipitations in Bulgaria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9269, 2022.

EGU22-12219 | Presentations | CL2.3

SOM-based circulation types in the Mediterranean basin from reanalysis and CMIP6 models 

Kostas Philippopoulos, Chris Tzanis, Constantinos Cartalis, George Blougouras, and Ilias Agathangelidis

The aim of this work is to produce a climate atmospheric circulation classification via Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and to identify and evaluate the respective changes in the frequency of the identified regimes for GCM projections (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, CMIP6). The main focus is to assess the ability to accurately represent the large-scale circulation over the Mediterranean and to generate atmospheric circulation regimes that can be used as an explanatory tool in multiple research fields. The classification framework uses an unsupervised learning algorithm for a low-dimensional representation of high-dimensional datasets (SOM) to identify non-linear relationships and patterns from complex spatiotemporal climatological fields. Upon the selection of the atmospheric variables and the corresponding spatial and temporal scales, the SOM framework will be applied initially to the historical period climate series of large-scale atmospheric circulation from reanalysis datasets and following to a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations for multiple Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The resulting atmospheric circulation regime catalogs will be compared and discussed in terms of the representativeness of the large-scale circulation by the GCM climate models for the Mediterranean domain. The catalogs will assess the corresponding changes in atmospheric circulation, focusing on the regimes’ frequency of occurrence, persistence, and transition probabilities

How to cite: Philippopoulos, K., Tzanis, C., Cartalis, C., Blougouras, G., and Agathangelidis, I.: SOM-based circulation types in the Mediterranean basin from reanalysis and CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12219, 2022.

The aridity of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical latitudes is frequently punctuated by near-planetary scale bands of cloud that diagonally link the tropics to the mid-latitudes. These cloud bands preferentially occur in the subtropical convergence zones situated in each of the three ocean basins. However, much of the research focused on these regions has considered seasonal averages, which are not suitable for fully capturing the synoptic-scale variability of these events. The MetBot, first developed to identify cloud bands over southern Africa and now successfully adapted to the South American area, overcomes this problem by identifying these tropical-extratropical cloud bands in daily data. In this study, we use the near-real-time version of the MetBot, currently implemented to monitor the progress of cloudband seasons over the Southern Hemisphere. Cloud bands are identified in the daily outgoing longwave radiation data from the High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with a spatial resolution of 1° and latency time of a couple of days (Lee, 2011). The results of the near-real-time monitoring area are available at <https://hart-ncg.github.io/real-time/about.html>. Here, we considered the cloud bands dataset with events identified across the Southern Hemisphere between 1979 and 2020 to evaluate their variability and recent changes. The climatological analysis highlights four hotspot regions: South Pacific and South America, which are the strongest; southern Africa, with events only forming through austral summer; and Australia, with summer (winter) events over the eastern (western) coast. The hemispheric scale of the results provides a unified view of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the cloud bands, including the preferential location of the convective activity during different ENSO phases. By isolating the systems responsible for most of the rainy season precipitation over the subtropics, we also identify changes in the cloud band activity in recent years and their impact on the total precipitation. Future applications include the use in tandem with S2S forecast data, as currently being implemented over South America, as well as a tool to evaluate historical and future climate model simulations of various resolutions.  

Lee, Hai-Tien and NOAA CDR Program (2011): NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Version 1.2. NOAA National Climatic Data Center. doi:10.7289/V5SJ1HH2 

How to cite: Zilli, M. and Hart, N.: Variability and changes of tropical-extratropical cloudband events over the Southern Hemisphere using a synoptic climatology approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12800, 2022.

EGU22-125 | Presentations | CL2.4

Physical processes driving intensification of future precipitation in the mid- to high latitudes: an example from Norway 

Basile Poujol, Stefan Sobolowski, and Priscilla Mooney

Precipitation is changing as the climate warms. Downpours can potentially become more intense, frequent, and of longer duration due to the increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere and other (thermo)dynamical responses. However, the exact nature of the precipitation response and its characteristics are still not well understood due to the complex nature of the physical processes underlying the formation of clouds and precipitation. 

In this study, present and future Norwegian climate are simulated at convection-permitting scales with a regional climate model. Hourly precipitation is separated into three categories (convective, stratiform, and orographically enhanced stratiform). This is achieved using a physically-based algorithm that is tested over different mountainous areas. 

We investigate changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of precipitation events for each category, delivering a more nuanced insight into the precipitation response to a changing climate. Results show a significant intensification of autumn precipitation and more frequent convective precipitation. The precipitation response in autumn and spring deviates from the idealised thermodynamic response, partly owing to changes in cloud microphysics. These results show that changes in the precipitation distribution are affected in complex ways by the local climatology, terrain, seasonality and cloud processes. Given the societal impacts of intense rainfall, there is an imperative to further understand these complexities, thus enabling greater societal resilience to climate change.

How to cite: Poujol, B., Sobolowski, S., and Mooney, P.: Physical processes driving intensification of future precipitation in the mid- to high latitudes: an example from Norway, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-125, 2022.

EGU22-142 | Presentations | CL2.4

Lagrangean analysis of convective cells under climate change 

Edmund P Meredith, Henning W Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Precipitation is typically analysed from an Eulerian perspective, in which rainfall is considered at a fixed location. Lagrangean analysis of precipitation represents an alternative approach. Here, precipitation objects – for example, convective cells – are identified in a precipitation field and are then tracked through space and time, allowing object properties over the whole life of a convective cell to be collected. For the study of precipitation under climate change, this approach may offer additional insights into the mechanisms by which precipitation increases or decreases; for example, changes in cell lifetime or areal extent.

In this study, we analyse the climate-change response of convective cells’ properties by combining Lagrangean tracking with the pseudo global warming (PGW) modelling approach. A 14-day period of unusually high convective activity over central Europe is first simulated under observed conditions in an 18-member ensemble with the COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution (2.8 km). The ensemble is then re-simulated under PGW conditions, created by modifying the initial and boundary conditions based on an RCP8.5 end-of-century scenario. All convective objects are then systematically tracked through space and time. Here we present the response to warming of the convective cell characteristics for the study period, and explore the variability of these changes across the full distribution of objects. Cell characteristics considered include cell area, intensity, volume, lifetime and distance travelled.

How to cite: Meredith, E. P., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U.: Lagrangean analysis of convective cells under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-142, 2022.

EGU22-185 | Presentations | CL2.4

Evaluating changes in the total evapotranspiration parameter due to the updates in stomatal resistance algorithms of COSMO-CLM model on the example of the exceptionally warm summer of 2013 

Evgenii Churiulin, Merja Helena Tölle, Vladimir Kopeikin, Markus Übel, Jürgen Helmert, and Jean Marie Bettems

Climatic changes will likely increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (e.g. heat waves or droughts) in the future. Vegetation is one of the key factors, which has a significant impact on extreme temperatures, which is clearly evident in climate simulations at convection-permitting scale. The process of evapotranspiration is related to vegetation and controlled by stomatal resistance, which is playing a major role in regulating water loss and carbon uptake. However, the regional climate model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO-CLM v5.16) uses a simplified stomatal resistance algorithm, which is not capable of modelling complex processes depending on temperature, water availability and day length. Here, we demonstrate the changes in the total evapotranspiration parameter caused by updates of the stomatal resistance algorithms based on the physically Bell-Berry approach coupled with the Farquhar photosynthesis model and “two-big leaf” approach. The latter is necessary for dividing the photosynthetic active radiation flux on two phases, which are sunlit and shaded. The algorithms from two different versions (v3.5 and v4.5) of the Community Land Model (CLM) were implemented. The stomatal resistance algorithm of CLM v3.5 depends on leaf photosynthesis, CO2 partial and vapor pressure and minimum stomatal conductance. The algorithm of CLM v4.5 is additionally limited by the soil water stress function. In a third update, we also implemented in COSMO-CLM the water flux calculation algorithm based on CLM v4.5 for dry and wet leaf transpiration. Then single column simulations were conducted over three observational research domains with C3 grass plants in Germany from 2001 to 2015 and analyzed for the exceptionally warm and dry summer 2013. Model results were compared with GLEAM data. Differences between simulations begin to appear with the leaf growth and reach the maximum values in summer months, especially in June 2013 when the standardized temperature anomaly was fixed. In June, the reference simulation reaches mean values of the total evapotranspiration equal to 2.7 mm month-1, while the GLEAM datasets and experimental simulations show similar values in the range of 3.3 to 3.6 mm month -1. The simulations with the new algorithms have slightly greater correlation coefficient (0.879, 0.875 and 0.867) with GLEAM data than the reference simulation (0.856). Applied performance indices like Kling-Gupta Efficiency index (KGE > 0.77) and the distribution added value index (DAV > 0.007) confirm those results. Model results for the exceptional warm and dry summer 2013 showed that the new algorithms of stomatal resistance are much more sensitive to the changes in environmental conditions (e.q.: soil moisture deficit, warm temperatures), while the reference simulation demonstrates similar to usual summer values of stomatal resistance. We anticipate our results to be a starting point for more sophisticated developments in the COSMO-CLM model. The new stomatal resistance algorithms can be used for the modern algorithm for the leaf area index based on the biomass evolution.

How to cite: Churiulin, E., Tölle, M. H., Kopeikin, V., Übel, M., Helmert, J., and Bettems, J. M.: Evaluating changes in the total evapotranspiration parameter due to the updates in stomatal resistance algorithms of COSMO-CLM model on the example of the exceptionally warm summer of 2013, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-185, 2022.

EGU22-188 | Presentations | CL2.4

Western shifting of Extreme Rainfall Events over the different Indian River Basins in the last 119 years 

Pawan Kumar Chaubey and Rajesh Kumar Mall

India experienced more flood situations due to the increasing extreme rainfall events over the different Indian River Basins (IRBs) during the last few decades. An Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is used to examine trends of rainfall extremes over the IRBs using long-term observed high-resolution grid-based rainfall (1901-2019) of the India Meteorological Department. The analysis depicts that when generalized extreme value theory (GEV) is applied to annual maximum rainfall over IRBs, statistically significant uniform trends were not seen. The spatial variations in the annual maximum rainfall for the 10-, 30- and 100-year return levels show statistically significant increasing trends over the IRBs. The shifting trend of rainfall extremes from northeast towards the western river basins of IRBs in the last two decades and resulted in damage to life and property on the west coast. The decadal changes in average intensity of dry and wet condition at 12- months running time window reveals that the shifting and increasing pattern of the rainfall extremes events during the last decades of the 20th century (1981-2000) and current decades of the 21st century (2001-2019) over the western ghats and west-flowing river basin leads to several floods situations. This research highlights the significant increasing trend in extreme rainfall events over the IRBs, which may pose a grave risk to agriculture, human life, and predominantly on the vulnerable sections of the society.

How to cite: Chaubey, P. K. and Mall, R. K.: Western shifting of Extreme Rainfall Events over the different Indian River Basins in the last 119 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-188, 2022.

In the warming climatic scenario, Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall and its extremes, especially on the local scale, is expected to alter that profoundly impact the societal, environmental, and economic well-being of the million people residing in central India. Therefore, understanding ISM mean and extreme rainfall for the past, current, and reliable projection are crucial for effective adaptation strategies, remains a major scientific challenge. The Regional Earth System Model (ROM) driven by MPI-ESM-LR over the CORDEX-South Asia framework under the RCP8.5 scenario at a finer horizontal resolution of 0.22° was used to investigate the future of mean and extreme precipitation over central India. The ROM’s performance is demonstrated with respect to observed precipitation data from India Meteorological Department. ROM shows its skill in capturing the mean and extreme precipitation (PEs) during the ISM along with its intraseasonal variability.  Further, an effort is made to investigate the projected changes in precipitation extremes (PEs) during the mid-future (MF; 2040-2069) and far-future (FF; 2070-2099) concerning the historical period (1969-2000) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results highlight, two-fold rise in the frequency of PEs is likely to be expected by the end of the century. In addition to this, the study also projects the intraseasonal variability, i.e., the active and break spells that crop up during the peak monsoon months (July and August). The active spells were found to be more persistent in the projected period. The changes in the different precipitation events are subjected to strong cyclonic circulation, reduced vertical wind shear, and enhanced moisture transport.

How to cite: Kumari, A. and Kumar, P.: Precipitation Extremes over central India - Past, Present, and Future: Regional Earth System Model Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-289, 2022.

EGU22-309 | Presentations | CL2.4

Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation extremes across India 

Shivanand Mandraha and Sujata Ray

The occurrence of extreme precipitation events is a matter of concern for any nation because a slight change to it can have a devastating effect on the socio-economic condition for the state. To assess the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation extremes, extreme rainfall data over India (except Island part) have analyzed using quantile perturbation method. The data used in the study is taken from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia (UK). It is a gridded data of 0.5o × 0.5o resolution. The analysis showed that different part of the studied area had varying perturbations in the precipitation extremes. The study found a significant anomaly in precipitation extreme for all the periods but the 1910s, 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, 1990s, and 2000s decades had covered wide area as compared to the remaining periods with reference to the long period of 1901-2017. In the 1910s, the positive anomaly was found near most of North East India, while negative anomaly was found in central and north India. In 1930-1940s, the central part had a positive anomaly, and the north part had a negative anomaly. Negative perturbation is present in the most of east region (the Gangetic plain) in 1990-2000s. A positive anomaly found on the west side. But in the recent decade very few anomaly present in the whole region. To partially address the reason behind the perturbation correlation analysis has been done between extreme precipitation anomaly and Indian Ocean Dipole. The result shows most of the part of East, North East side of India are having moderately negative correlation while some of the South and North India are having moderately positive correlation. The sea surface temperature over the Indian Ocean might be the main driver for the decadal perturbations in precipitation extremes.

How to cite: Mandraha, S. and Ray, S.: Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation extremes across India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-309, 2022.

Detailed information about extreme precipitation is crucial due to the impacts on the human environment. Recently, high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) are run at convection-permitting scales to investigate the regional precipitation extremes. The Black Sea region is one of the intriguing regions for modelling studies because of its distinctive topographical features where orographic forcing and strong air-sea interactions intensify destructive heavy precipitation. Recently, RCMs have been tested in order to find the most suitable configuration to represent precipitation over this region. Although the historical simulations are beneficial to test the model performance, model configurations may exhibit different spatiotemporal characteristics in simulating extreme precipitation due to the shift of the seasons in a possible warmer future. Recent studies focusing on the intensification of extreme precipitation events highlighted the model sensitivity to increasing sea surface temperature (SST) over the Black Sea. Therefore, future simulations focusing on different model configurations may provide valuable information to understand the response of RCMs in a changing climate. In this study, we downscaled the last generation CMIP6 MPI-ESM1.2-HR outputs by using the WRF model at 3 km horizontal resolution to test the model’s sensitivity for different microphysical and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization options under the SSP5-8.5 future socioeconomic global change scenario. We selected cold and warm extreme precipitation cases and performed 3-days convection-permitting simulations over the complex topography of the Black Sea region. For the cold case, simple single-moment schemes produced less precipitation compared to more complex schemes, especially over the mountains, because of the insufficient representation of snowfall. For the warm case, the difference between the simulations is similar to the cold case but, the magnitude is lower. The change of the PBL scheme affects the vertical and horizontal distribution of microphysical properties and precipitation distribution near the coasts and the mountains.

How to cite: Kelebek, M. B. and Önol, B.: Sensitivity to Microphysics and PBL Schemes for Extreme Precipitation over the Black Sea Region in Future Climate: Warm and Cold Cases, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-408, 2022.

EGU22-1669 | Presentations | CL2.4

Evaluation and Bias Correction of Simulated Sub-daily Rainfall Extremes by Regional Climate Models 

Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley De Cruz, Rafiq Hamdi, Cecille Villanueva-Birriel, Philippe Marbaix, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Hendrik Wouters, Sam Vanden Broucke, Nicole van Lipzig, Sébastien Doutreloup, Coraline Wyard, Chloé Scholzen, Xavier Fettweis, Steven Caluwaerts, and Piet Termonia

Sub-daily precipitation extremes can have a huge impact on society as they cause hazards such as flooding, erosion and landslides. For example, the July floods in Germany, Belgium and nearby countries, were one of the costliest events in Europe, with insured losses up to USD 13 billion. Climate change is expected to intensify precipitation extremes as atmospheric water content increases by 6-7% per degree of warming, underscoring the need to predict  future hydrological hazards. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) typically run at a spatial resolution of 12-25 km, but they insufficiently describe the small-scale features of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes. The past decade, convection-permitting RCMs were developed which run at high resolution (1-4 km), and explicitly resolve deep convection. Confidence in future projections requires that RCMs adequately simulate the statistical features of observed sub-daily extreme precipitation and  also represent the physical processes associated with convective events. We propose a diagnostic framework for simulated 1h-24h rainfall extremes that summarizes the overall RCM performance. This includes the following metrics: the seasonal/diurnal cycle, temperature and humidity dependency, temporal scaling, and spatiotemporal clustering. A substantial part of the work is devoted to the statistical modelling of the metrics with Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We illustrate the evaluation tool with convection-permitting RCM simulations over Belgium against high-frequency observations and assess the benefit of the convection-permitting RCMs with respect to coarser scales. Finally, we give some guidelines for bias correction of simulated precipitation extremes.

How to cite: Van de Vyver, H., Van Schaeybroeck, B., De Troch, R., De Cruz, L., Hamdi, R., Villanueva-Birriel, C., Marbaix, P., van Ypersele, J.-P., Wouters, H., Vanden Broucke, S., van Lipzig, N., Doutreloup, S., Wyard, C., Scholzen, C., Fettweis, X., Caluwaerts, S., and Termonia, P.: Evaluation and Bias Correction of Simulated Sub-daily Rainfall Extremes by Regional Climate Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1669, 2022.

EGU22-2201 | Presentations | CL2.4

Regional winds over the Iberian Peninsula (Cierzo, Levante and Poniente) from high resolution COSMO-REA6 reanalysis 

María Ortega, Enrique Sánchez, Claudia Gutiérrez, and María Ofelia Molina

Regional winds are usually caused by small pressure differences, and so air flows arise in very specific areas. When these air flows pass through certain orographic features over the Iberian Peninsula, such as channels like the Ebro Valley or the Strait of Gibraltar, they acquire a certain range of directions and considerable speed due to mass conservation. However, reanalysis products are not able to analyze them because their spatial resolution, larger than 10 km, is usually not high enough to properly describe the orographic characteristics that lead to these regional winds. Here, we explore the application of the COSMO-REA6 very high resolution reanalysis system to study three regional winds in the Iberian Peninsula: Cierzo in the Ebro Valley and Levante and Poniente in the Strait of Gibraltar, for the 2000-2018 period. COSMO-REA6 has a spatial resolution of 6 km (0.055º), much larger than the other current state-of-the-art reanalysis, and so it could better capture regional winds due to its better orographic representation. Cierzo, Levante and Poniente are very relevant due to their intensity and frequency over the regions. Defined with a 5 m/s threshold for each hour and their specific direction range, around 95, 85 and 82 wind days per year are obtained, respectively. Comparison against the small amount of observational data shows that there is reasonable conformity between datasets in terms of statistics and annual cycles. Reanalysis allows us to study regional wind spatial features such as extension statistics (frequency, covered area) of Cierzo along the Ebro Valley or Levante/Poniente over the Strait of Gibraltar. Atmospheric patterns associated with these regional winds indicate great differences between winter and summer patterns. This study aims to increase the current small number of studies focused on regional winds over Europe, with clear interests on wind climatology, meteorological characterization of atmospheric flows and other applications such as renewable energy production.

How to cite: Ortega, M., Sánchez, E., Gutiérrez, C., and Molina, M. O.: Regional winds over the Iberian Peninsula (Cierzo, Levante and Poniente) from high resolution COSMO-REA6 reanalysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2201, 2022.

EGU22-2499 | Presentations | CL2.4

Performance of HAILCAST and lightning potential index coupled with WRF and COSMO in convection-permitting simulations of hailstorms over the Alpine-Adriatic region 

Barbara Malečić, Ruoyi Cui, Damjan Jelić, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Nikolina Ban, Marie-Estelle Demory, Petra Mikuš Jurković, Nataša Strelec Mahović, and Christoph Schär

 

Hail is a significant convective weather hazard, often causing considerable crop and property damage across the world. Although extremely damaging, hail still remains a challenging phenomenon to model and forecast given the gaps in understanding the processes involved in hail formation. Recently, a physically-based one-dimensional hail model called HAILCAST was developed. HAILCAST forecasts the maximum expected hail diameter at the ground using a vertical profile of the updraft, temperature, liquid and ice water content and can be embedded within a convection-permitting model (CPM). Furthermore, lightning activity is a characteristic phenomenon that often accompanies severe weather, and especially hailstorms, as well as a damaging phenomenon in itself. One of the ways to diagnose the areas prone to lighting activity is by using a Lightning Potential Index (LPI). LPI is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation inside a thundercloud, which results in lightning flashes during convective thunderstorms. Therefore, LPI maps the area with the potential for electrical activity based on the model’s dynamical and microphysical fields.

 

Here, eight hailstorms occurring over the Alpine-Adriatic region are analyzed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Consortium for Small Scale Modeling in Climate Mode (COSMO) simulations with embedded HAILCAST and LPI at convection-permitting resolution (~2.2 km). In addition, a model intercomparison study is performed to investigate the ability of different modelling systems in reproducing such convective extremes and to further assess the uncertainties associated with simulations of such local-area phenomena. The results are verified by direct hail observations from Croatia (hailpad network), radar estimates of hail from Switzerland (probability of hail, maximum expected severe hail size) and lightning measurements from the LINET network.

 

The analysis revealed that both HAILCAST and LPI are able to reproduce the observed hail and lightning activity. Namely, both models are able to capture the areas affected by hail and lightning as well as its intensity. Moreover, the fields produced by both models are remarkably similar, although, a slight tendency of WRF to produce smaller hail swaths with larger hailstone diameters and larger LPI values seems to be present. Overall, the analysis revealed promising results and indicates that both HAILCAST and LPI could be valuable tools for real-time forecasting and climatological assessment of hail and lightning occurrence in current and possibly changing climate.

How to cite: Malečić, B., Cui, R., Jelić, D., Horvath, K., Telišman Prtenjak, M., Ban, N., Demory, M.-E., Mikuš Jurković, P., Strelec Mahović, N., and Schär, C.: Performance of HAILCAST and lightning potential index coupled with WRF and COSMO in convection-permitting simulations of hailstorms over the Alpine-Adriatic region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2499, 2022.

The dynamical downscaling of global circulation models (GCMs) with regional climate models (RCMs) is a computationally expensive process, even more so running at the convection permitting scale (CP). The high-resolution product of these simulations is an important factor for consideration and is relevant to provide a  proper characterization of climate extremes, to address hazard assessment and manage associated risk. Moreover, an increasing number of studies shows improvements in regional climate model performances at CP scale if compared to their driving RCMs. The assessment of extreme events indicators, as defined by the joint CCl/WCRP/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), is here proposed over the Iberian peninsula using CP simulations at around 3km of resolution for evaluation experiment as well as for future spans. The same indicators are also assessed for the available observations and for the driving RCM simulation at around 12km of resolution. Such approach allows, from one side to evaluate the results of CP simulation by comparison against observations and, on the other one, to quantify if there are any improvement by comparison against RCM simulation at a coarser resolution. Then, indicators are calculated in a near future 10 years-long period from both CP and RCM simulations, in order to highlight the differences in the climate projections. The selected indicators as consecutive dry days and maximum value of daily maximum temperature are strictly connected to high-impact events as droughts and temperature extremes. Their exploiting provide useful information about the expected changes in next decades due to the climate warming.

How to cite: Adinolfi, M., Raffa, M., and Mercogliano, P.: Climate indicators for high-impact weather events as droughts and temperature extremes over the Iberian Peninsula with convection permitting scale simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3791, 2022.

The latest generation of Convection Permitting Regional Climate Models (CPRCMs, <4 km resolution) provides a step change in our understanding of regional-to-local scale climate processes.

Recent studies highlight how km-scale modeling provides a more accurate representation of precipitation extremes compared to the driving convection-parameterized RCMs. Further, evidence suggests that changes in the soil moisture-precipitation feedback and regional precipitation recycling occur when moving to a km-scale. This generally translates into drier conditions in km-scale simulations, mainly during summer. Consequently, the different soil moisture content in explicit vs. parameterized simulations results in a different partitioning between heat fluxes, which in turn can modulate temperature extremes and heatwaves (HWs).

This study explores the representation of HWs and their future changes from an ensemble of twelve CPRCMs downscaled from CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end-of-century periods over a greater alpine region. The two-step dynamical downscaling consists of downscaling GCMs to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution (convection-parameterized RCMs) and then using these fields to further downscaling to the kilometer scale.

Analyses are two-fold: (i) Exploring if the warmer/drier signal introduced by the km-scale points toward an improvement compared to the driving convection-parameterized simulations over the historical period. Here, distribution-based grid- and station-scale evaluation metrics are considered. (ii) Assessing if the km-scale signal is temporally stationary or if modulation of summer temperatures and HWs future changes can be expected. Key metrics are summer maximum temperature and relevant HW statistics (e.g., amplitude, persistence magnitude). HWs local-scale forcing, represented by the land-atmosphere coupling magnitude, is also analyzed.

Preliminary results show an added value from km-scale simulations. RCM cold biases are reduced and summer maximum temperature distribution is improved over a majority of reference stations. Concerning future changes both resolutions show a summer maximum temperature change signal ~ +6 °C characterized by a large spread among members (+4/+8 °C). Considering the ensemble mean, we do not observe strong modification of the climate change signal by the CPRCMs (±10%). However, this results from averaging change signal modifications from individual members that can be as much as up to ±25%, with no clear tendency toward an amplification/reduction of the driving RCM change signal.

Similar results are obtained considering only HW days. Driving the change signal alteration observed in some models is a difference between CPRCMs and RCMs in the partitioning of latent heat during HW days. In contrast to the CPRCMs, some RCMs produce positive future changes in latent heating during HW days, meaning there is sufficient soil moisture to allow latent heat to increase in response to an increased radiative forcing. 

To conclude, CPRCMs are warmer than RCMs during the historical period, resulting from improved and more realistic physics. This does not translate into an unambiguous modulation of the ensemble mean future change signal. However, those models that exhibit strong modulation could be driven by a different sign of HWs latent heat change signal. This aspect deserves further analysis since alterations of other relevant HW features, such as magnitude and persistence, have potentially large societal impacts.    




How to cite: Sangelantoni, L. and Sobolowski, S.: Exploring the effect of kilometer-scale climate modeling on the representation of historical and future heat waves. A multi-model ensemble perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4318, 2022.

EGU22-4610 | Presentations | CL2.4

How are air and land temperatures affected by the horizontal resolution and the bulk urban parametrisation in WRF model simulations over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East? 

Katiana Constantinidou, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Anna Tzyrkalli, George Zittis, and Jos Lelieveld

Urbanization alters land surface properties and the local surface energy balance and, therefore, land and near surface air temperature. Urban morphology and processes are represented in climate models using urban land-surface models with varying levels of complexity, which parameterise the effects of urban environments on surface fluxes without representing buildings explicitly.

This study focuses on the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) area over which the effect of urban parameterisation and resolution difference on simulated 2-meter air and land surface temperatures is investigated. Two high-resolution simulations at 16 km and 4 km are performed over the EMME domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with NoahMP land surface scheme for the period of 2000-2002. The bulk urban parameterisation scheme is implemented, which assigns fixed values for land properties such as surface albedo, roughness length etc., appropriate for the resolved urban areas. Focusing on several cities of the region of interest for the summer season (June-July-August, JJA), the effect of the model horizontal resolution and the grid-box land type on air (minimum and maximum) and land temperatures is examined. The temperature difference of the urban-characterised grid-boxes compared to their rural surroundings is also studied. Station (Integrated Surface Dataset - ISD) and satellite (MODIS-TERRA) observations together with reanalysis data (ERA5-LAND) are used for the evaluation of the simulation output.

How to cite: Constantinidou, K., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tzyrkalli, A., Zittis, G., and Lelieveld, J.: How are air and land temperatures affected by the horizontal resolution and the bulk urban parametrisation in WRF model simulations over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4610, 2022.

EGU22-4886 | Presentations | CL2.4

Potential and limitations of convection-permitting CNRM-AROME climate modelling in the French Alps 

Diego Monteiro, Cécile Caillaud, Raphaẽlle Samacoĩts, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Samuel Morin

Despite continued progress and a growing literature assessing regional climate change worldwide, modeling and assessing climate characteristics in mountainous regions remain challenging. Yet the stakes are high in these regions. As significant changes affect glaciers and snowpack, having
cascading effects on regional hydrology, quantifying them as accurately as possible is necessary for societal actors to adapt and reduce the growing climate risks.

Convection permitting climate modelling is a promising avenue for climate change research and services, particularly in mountainous regions. Work is required to evaluate the results of high resolution simulations against relevant reference dataset and put them in a broader context against coarser resolution modeling frameworks.

Our research assesses the potentials and limitations of high resolution climate models to represent past and future changes in snow conditions in the European Alps.

Here, we present an insight from the convection permitting climate model (CPRCM) CNRM-AROME ran at 2.5 km horizontal resolution over a large pan-Alpine domain in the European Alps, using either the ERA-Interim or CNRM-CM5 output as boundary conditions.

Annual and seasonal characteristics of four variables (2m temperature, total precipitation, solid fraction of precipitation and snow depths) are compared over the French Alps with the local reanalysis S2M, and raw or adjusted, with the ADAMONT method, simulations of the regional
climate model CNRM-ALADIN driven either by the ERA-Interim reanalysis or the CNRM-CM5 global climate model.

The study generally highlights similar differences in past and future climate between the datasets, as well as obstacles to the use of some CNRM-AROME outputs as they stand. These consist of excessive accumulation of snow on the ground above 1800 m a.s.l., as well as lower temperature
values at same elevations than the S2M reanalysis and the ADAMONT-adjusted outputs.

Nevertheless, clear advantages of CNRM-AROME simulations compared to raw CNRM-ALADIN outputs appear, concerning the temperature fields, the better representation of precipitations, as well as the spatial variability closer to the reference data.

How to cite: Monteiro, D., Caillaud, C., Samacoĩts, R., Lafaysse, M., and Morin, S.: Potential and limitations of convection-permitting CNRM-AROME climate modelling in the French Alps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4886, 2022.

EGU22-5269 | Presentations | CL2.4

Combining CMIP data with a convection-permitting model and observations to project extreme rainfall under climate change 

Cornelia Klein, Douglas J. Parker, Lawrence S. Jackson, John H. Marsham, Christopher M. Taylor, David P. Rowell, Françoise Guichard, Théo Vischel, Adjoua Moise Famien, and Arona Diedhiou

Due to associated hydrological risks, there is an urgent need to provide plausible quantified changes in future extreme rainfall rates. Convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations represent a major advance in capturing extreme rainfall and its sensitivities to atmospheric changes under global warming. However, they are computationally costly, limiting uncertainty evaluation in ensembles and covered time periods. This is in contrast to the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 ensembles, which cannot capture relevant convective processes, but provide a range of plausible projections for atmospheric drivers of rainfall change. Here, we quantify the sensitivity of extreme rainfall within West African storms to changes in atmospheric rainfall drivers, using both observations and a CP projection representing a decade under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 around 2100. We illustrate how these physical relationships can then be used to reconstruct better-informed extreme rainfall changes from CMIP, including for time periods not covered by the CP model. We find reconstructed hourly extreme rainfall over the Sahel increases across all CMIP models, with a plausible range of 37-75% for 2070-2100 (mean 55%, and 18-30% for 2030-2060). This is considerably higher than the +0-60% (mean +30%) we obtain from a traditional extreme rainfall metric based on raw daily CMIP rainfall, suggesting such analyses can underestimate extreme rainfall intensification. We conclude that process-based rainfall scaling is a useful approach for creating time-evolving rainfall projections in line with CP model behaviour, reconstructing important information for medium-term decision making. This approach also better enables the communication of uncertainties in extreme rainfall projections that reflect our current state of knowledge on its response to global warming, away from the limitations of coarse-scale climate models alone.

How to cite: Klein, C., Parker, D. J., Jackson, L. S., Marsham, J. H., Taylor, C. M., Rowell, D. P., Guichard, F., Vischel, T., Famien, A. M., and Diedhiou, A.: Combining CMIP data with a convection-permitting model and observations to project extreme rainfall under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5269, 2022.

EGU22-5481 | Presentations | CL2.4

A Climate Change Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Mediterranean and Alps 

Sebastian K. Müller, Emanuela Pichelli, Erika Coppola, Segolene Berthou, Susanne Brienen, Cecile Caillaud, Marie-Estelle Demory, Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Paola Mercogliano, Merja Tölle, and Hylke de Vries

Flash floods rank among the most dangerous and costliest hazards of the alpine and mediterranean region. The severe convective storms causing them are influenced by both, the presence of a large body of sea water and a complex orography. These storms are the main subject of the present study and in the following referred to as heavy precipitation events (HPEs).

We here study heavy precipitation events by using an ensemble of convection permitting regional climate models and applying a tracking algorithm, and focus on their charateristic properties. The domain covers the Alps and the central part of the Mediterranean, and we investigate and compare three 10-year periods under the rcp85 forcing scenario: historical [2000-2009], near-future [2040-2049] and far-future [2090-2099].

Our analysis reproduces a most important message: even though in the future the mediterranean climate is drying, precipitation associated with heavy precipitation events is increasing. Further, HPEs will be more frequent in the future. In particular, their occurrence frequency will increases in wintertime, whereas it will decrease in summertime.

We investigate the climate change signal of characteristic properties describing the propagation, the spatial and temporal scales and the intensity of HPEs: on average HPEs travel by 10% farther [8km], they last longer by 5% [20 min], their area increases by 16% and their total rain volume by 34%. Regarding metrics of intensity the changes of the highest percentiles are greatest: the 90th percentiles of a HPE's precipitation field increases by 5.6%, the 99th percentile by 9.4% and the maximum increases by 12.7%.

Eventually we unravel the characterics for specific regions and seasons: changes are more dramatical for HPEs that cross the coastline and in wintertime.

In summary, this study confirms important messages of climate research in an ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate models, demonstrates the capabilities of convection-permitting spatial resolution and explores the possibilities that come with applying a tracking algorithm and by looking into precipitation extremes in the Lagrangion framework of reference.

How to cite: Müller, S. K., Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Berthou, S., Brienen, S., Caillaud, C., Demory, M.-E., Dobler, A., Feldmann, H., Mercogliano, P., Tölle, M., and de Vries, H.: A Climate Change Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Mediterranean and Alps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5481, 2022.

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) are common over Europe during the warm season (Morel and Senesi, 2002b) and are able to produce severe weather such as extreme precipitation leading to flash floods (Fiori et al., 2014). Studies analyzing the climatological characteristics of MCS over Europe are rare and were often based on only a few years of data or were focused on a limited area of Europe. In their recent research, Surowiecky and Taszarek (2020) showed that MCS over Poland can frequently adopt typical morphology of mid-latitude extreme-rain producing MCS (Schumacher and Johnson, 2005).
With the recent Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG; Huffman et al., 2019) satellite precipitation climatology, we identify and track MCS for nearly 20 years over Europe. Our detection/tracking algorithm is inspired from the one proposed by Feng et al. (2021). Cell-tracking from precipitation data is not straightforward, especially for fast moving and small systems. Here, we make use of a spatio-temporal filter and track cells according to the overlapping of filtered precipitation patches between two consecutive time steps. We fit an ellipse to the precipitating patches for a quick scan of their morphology and orientation. The algorithm is able to distinguish between non-convective rain bands from convective rain patches, thus reducing potential identification errors.
We use this new European MCS climatology to evaluate their main characteristics in Europe and their potential evolution over the last 20 years. In particular, we examine their occurrence frequency in extreme rainfall events in this region and the environmental conditions leading to these extremes, with respect to other (non-MCS) convective systems. This work contributes to better understanding the role that convective organization plays in driving extreme rain in mid-latitudes from an observational perspective.

 

References

Feng Z, Leung LR, Liu N, Wang J, Houze RA, Li J, Hardin JC, Chen D, Guo J. 2021. A global high-resolution mesoscale convective system database using satellite-derived cloud tops, surface precipitation, and tracking. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2020JD034202, doi: 10.1029/2020JD034202. 

Fiori E, Comellas A, Molini L, Rebora N, Siccardi F, Gochis D, Tanelli S, Parodi A. 2014. Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: the Genoa 2011 case. Atmos. Res., 138, pp. 13–29, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.007.

Huffman GJ, Stocker EF, Bolvin DT, Nelkin EJ, Tan J. 2019. GPM IMERG final precipitation L3 half hourly 0.1 degree x 0.1 degree V06, Greenbelt, MD, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center. doi: 10.5067/GPM/IMERG/3B-HH/06.

Morel C, Senesi S. 2002b. A climatology of mesoscale convective systems over Europe using satellite infrared imagery. II: Characteristics of European mesoscale convective systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 1973–1995, doi: 10.1256/003590002320603494.

Schumacher RS, Johnson RH. 2005. Organization and environmental properties of extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems. Month. Weath. Rev., 133, 961–976, doi: 10.1175/MWR2899.1.

Surowiecki, A., & Taszarek, M. (2020). A 10-Year Radar-Based Climatology of Mesoscale Convective System Archetypes and Derechos in Poland, Month. Weath. Rev., 148(8), 3471–3488, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0412.1.

How to cite: Da Silva, N. and Haerter, J.: The role of mesoscale convective organization in the generation of extreme precipitation over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5483, 2022.

EGU22-5924 | Presentations | CL2.4

Changes in future subdaily extreme precipitation at convection-permitting scale over an alpine transect 

Bardia Roghani, Eleonora Dallan, Giorgia Fosser, Christoph Schär, Marco Marani, Marco Borga, and Francesco Marra

Subdaily extreme precipitation may trigger fast hydro-geomorphic responses, such as flash floods and debris flows, which cause numerous fatalities and large damage. Compared to coarser resolution models, high-resolution models, called convection-permitting (CPMs), more realistically represent convective processes that are key for the correct representation of subdaily extremes, and thus provide higher confidence in the future extreme estimates. However, due to the high computational demands, the existing CPM simulations are only available for relatively short time periods (10–20 years at most), too short for deriving precipitation frequency analyses with conventional approaches. Recent extreme value analysis methods, based on all “ordinary” observations rather than on just yearly maxima or a few values over a high threshold, offer an opportunity for exploiting these short data records to reliably estimate return levels associated with long return periods. Here, we examine subdaily precipitation extremes from three 10-year time slices (historical 1996-2005, near-future 2041-2050, and far future 2090-2099 – under the RCP8.5 scenario) of COSMO-crCLIM model simulations at 2.2 km resolution. We focus on the Eastern Alpine transect characterised by a complex orography, where significant changes in subdaily annual maxima have been already observed. We find that, although the storms' frequency will decrease in the region, the mean annual maxima will increase continuously in the near and far future, especially at shorter durations. Investigation of extreme return levels shows a similar trend, with larger changes in the far future. A shift in the seasonality is also reported, with extremes moving from late summer-autumn (historical), to autumn (near future), and autumn-winter (far future).

How to cite: Roghani, B., Dallan, E., Fosser, G., Schär, C., Marani, M., Borga, M., and Marra, F.: Changes in future subdaily extreme precipitation at convection-permitting scale over an alpine transect, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5924, 2022.

EGU22-5988 | Presentations | CL2.4

Differences in the increase of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation between models and scales over Europe 

Birthe Steensen, Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, and Kari Altherskjær

The frequency and intensity of heavy and extreme precipitation events in Europe have increased since the 1950s. Earlier studies have found, using observational datasets, that frequency increases more than intensity and that both increase more with event rareness. Here we compare changes in intensity and frequency for different observational and model datasets. Both CMIP6 global models with ensembles and regionally downscaled model results are analyzed. The regional models (from CORDEX) are driven by both reanalysis and CMIP5 models. Data are analyzed over two 30-year periods from 1951 to 1980 and 1981 to 2010. Results show that the models do not manage to produce the same increase in frequency as observed, however results are more similar for intensity increase. There are large differences in the change in extreme precipitation in model ensembles. The probability density functions for each of the observational and model datasets show that there are differences in the pattern of the shift between the two time periods.

How to cite: Steensen, B., Myhre, G., Hodnebrog, Ø., and Altherskjær, K.: Differences in the increase of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation between models and scales over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5988, 2022.

EGU22-6507 | Presentations | CL2.4

The role of different land cover input data on local climate and its extremes 

Merja Tölle and Evgenii Churiulin

The spatio-temporal heterogeneity in surface characteristics is considered to play a key role in terrestrial surface processes. Its characterization is essential for adaptation strategies. Here, we conducted regional climate simulations with COSMO-CLM (v5.0_clm16) with different land cover input data driven by ERA5 reanalysis over Germany at convection-permitting horizontal resolution of 3 km from 2000 to 2011. The difference between the land cover data of GLC2000, CCI_LC and ECOCLIMAP and the operational used GLOBCOVER2009 dataset on temperature and its extremes is investigated. The results reveal that the differences in turbulent fluxes and temperature are related to land cover classes. Even though the land cover class fractional differences are small among the land cover maps, some land cover types, such as croplands and urban areas, have greatly changed over the years. These distribution changes can be seen in the temperature differences. Simulations based on the CCI_LC retrieved in 2000 and 2015 revealed no accreditable difference in the climate variables as the land cover changes that occurred between these years are marginal, and thus, the influence is small over Germany. Increasing the land cover types as in ECOCLIMAP leads to higher temperature variability. The largest differences among the simulations occur in maximum temperature and from spring to autumn, which is the main vegetation period. The temperature differences seen among the simulations relate to changes in the leaf area index, plant coverage, roughness length, latent and sensible heat fluxes due to differences in land cover types. The vegetation fraction was the main parameter affecting the seasonal evolution of the latent heat fluxes based on linear regression analysis, followed by roughness length and leaf area index. If the same natural vegetation (e.g. forest) or pasture grid cells changed into urban types in another land cover map, daily maximum temperatures increased accordingly. Similarly, differences in climate extreme indices (e.g., SU or TR) are strongest for any land cover type change to urban areas. The uncertainties in regional temperature due to different land cover datasets were overall lower than the uncertainties associated with climate projections. Although the impact and their implications are different on different spatial and temporal scales as shown for urban area differences in the land cover maps. Thus, to realistically simulate land use/cover change effects on regional and local climate and draw conclusions for management strategies, numerical models would benefit from land surface characteristics, which are as accurate as possible in retrieval year, number of land cover classes, their distribution and fractions and have a high spatial resolution.

How to cite: Tölle, M. and Churiulin, E.: The role of different land cover input data on local climate and its extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6507, 2022.

EGU22-7066 | Presentations | CL2.4

A robust shift towards higher intensity convective and orographic rainfall over the Alps in a warmer climate 

Torge Lorenz and Stefan Sobolowski and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convection over Europe and the Mediterranean - ensemble on precipitation types

Recent research with “km-scale” or “convection-permitting” climate models (resolutions with grid-spacing generally < 4km) has described substantial improvements in the representation of precipitation when compared to conventional parameterized models. In particular, the distribution of precipitation is more faithfully reproduced and, in particular, precipitation extremes are more closely aligned with observations in terms of frequency, magnitude and duration. Future changes for many regions largely follow the mantra “the extremes become more extreme”. These results imply serious consequences arising from impacts commonly associated with extreme precipitation such as flash flooding, landslides, as well as  water resources availability. However, questions remain regarding the robustness of these responses as well as which types of precipitation contribute (and how) to the projected changes. Most of the existing literature at convection permitting scale consists of one or two model experiments and characteristics of precipitation are often defined based on arbitrary intensity thresholds. 

Here we employ the coordinated, multi-model ensemble of convection-permitting simulations generated within the WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convection over Europe and the Mediterranean. While the domain covers the greater Alpine region we focus here on the Alps themselves given its exposure to a  wide variety of storm types and extremes and the importance of representing convection and its interactions with the complex topography for the local climate. This multi-model ensemble is now complete and the present paper investigates the changing characteristics of precipitation over the complex terrain of the Alps.

A physically-based algorithm is employed to categorize precipitation as either convective, stratiform or orographic. The algorithm was specifically designed for use with km-scale modeling and uses commonly available variables on only a few levels of the atmosphere. This algorithm has been shown previously to accurately categorize precipitation types over the Scandanavian mountains as well as the Alps. 

The results show strong decreases in annual convective and orographic precipitation over the greater Alpine region, while stratiform precipitation changes little if at all. Upon closer inspection, using the Analysis of precipitation across scales method (AsoP) and traditional IDF analyses, a more nuanced picture emerges. IDF plots show that the frequency of high intensity events increases, across all durations over all Alpine regions (NW, NE, S). Conversely, frequency decreases for more moderate events, most strongly in the summer season. The AsoP analysis shows that this occurs due to a shifting of the entire distribution of precipitation for all precipitation types. This shift to higher intensities comes at the expense of more moderate intensity events, which decrease. While all seasons show similar patterns of change the change is most pronounced in summer. Convective and orographic precipitation show similar patterns but the magnitude of the change is largest for convective precipitation. Thus, despite an overall drying over the Alps, the extremes indeed become more extreme and more frequent. This behavior is remarkably robust across the entire ensemble.

How to cite: Lorenz, T. and Sobolowski, S. and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convection over Europe and the Mediterranean - ensemble on precipitation types: A robust shift towards higher intensity convective and orographic rainfall over the Alps in a warmer climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7066, 2022.

EGU22-7679 | Presentations | CL2.4 | Highlight

Convection-permitting climate models Offer More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections 

Giorgia Fosser, Marianna Adinolfi, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belušić, Cécile Caillaud, Rita M. Cardoso, Erika Coppola, Marie-Estelle Demory, Hylke De Vries, Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Marco Gaetani, Klaus Görgen, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Emanuela Pichelli, Christoph Schär, Pedro M. M. Soares, Samuel Somot, and Merja H. Tölle

Compared to standard regional climate models (RCMs), convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide an improved representation of sub-daily precipitation statistics and extremes thanks mainly to the possibility to switch off the deep convection parameterisation, a known source of model error and uncertainties. The more realistic representation of local processes in CPMs leads to a greater confidence in their projections of future changes in short-duration precipitation extremes.

The quantification of uncertainties on future changes at this resolution has been barely touched. Using the first-ever ensemble of CPMs run within the UK Climate Projections project, Fosser et al. (2020) found that the climate change signal for extreme summer precipitation may converge in CPMs in contrast to RCMs, thanks to a more realistic representation of the local storm dynamics.

Here we use the first multi-model CPMs ensemble over the greater Alpine region, run under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean (Coppola et al. 2020). Several statistics are used to determine the uncertainties in the climate change signal trying to disentangle model uncertainties from natural variability. We found that the contribution of model to the total uncertainties is substantially reduced in CPMs compared to the driving models in summer. This is likely linked to the removal of the uncertainties associated with the convective parameterisation and to a more realistic representation of convective and local dynamical processes in the CPMs.

 

Fosser G, Kendon EJ, Stephenson D, Tucker S (2020) Convection‐Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections. Geophys Res Lett 47:0–2. doi: 10.1029/2020GL088151

Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E. et al.A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Clim Dyn55, 3–34 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8

How to cite: Fosser, G., Adinolfi, M., Ban, N., Belušić, D., Caillaud, C., Cardoso, R. M., Coppola, E., Demory, M.-E., De Vries, H., Dobler, A., Feldmann, H., Gaetani, M., Görgen, K., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., Pichelli, E., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., and Tölle, M. H.: Convection-permitting climate models Offer More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7679, 2022.

Extreme precipitation and temperature events (EPTE) cause devastating impacts to ecosystems and society. The diversity of climates around the world does not allow a single definition of extreme events given the multiplicity of conditions in which each event develops. In regions of complex topography, interactions with vegetation have as a result numerous atmospheric circulation patterns and the existence of various phenomena at different spatial and temporal scales, which impedes homogeneity of distribution, frequency, and intensity of extreme events. It is known that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in different regions around the world. However, it is not clear how this phenomenon interacts with the frequency and intensity of EPTE in regions with complex topography gradient and a diversity of climates. Here we focus on the Colombian Andes mountain range in northern South America because it occupies a quarter of the territory, gathers most of the socio-economic development, and concentrates the majority of the country´s population. In this context, we use statistical analysis to characterize EPTE during La Niña, El Niño, and neutral years. In this work, we also compare the frequency and intensity of EPTE between La Niña and neutral years and El Niño and neutral years. Unlike other studies, we want to know if there is any pattern of increase or decrease of EPTE when an ENSO phase is active. We discuss the months in which there is an increase or decrease in EPTE according to the interannual variability of precipitation and temperature, as well as the months in which there is a significant relationship between the sea surface temperature of the Niño 3.4 region with precipitation and temperature. Our results show that the highest intensities of extreme precipitation events occur in the rainy seasons March-April-May and September-October-November. Also, the highest frequency of extreme precipitation events occurs between December and March for both the 95th and 99th percentile. The difference analysis showed that during El Niño and La Niña periods, extreme precipitation events are more intense than in neutral years. Additionally, the frequency of events is higher during El Niño, but their localization is variable in time and space. The behavior of temperature extremes is more marked since the most intense events occur during El Niño from February to September, and the highest frequency of extreme events occurs between April and September and varies throughout the year in the Andes region according to the active phase of ENSO. These results provide a basis for the design of adaptation and mitigation policies in the face natural variability and climate change, and for improving hydrometeorological forecasts.

How to cite: Acero, I. C. and Vieira, S. C.: Characterization of extreme precipitation and temperature events during El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Colombian Andes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9008, 2022.

EGU22-10496 | Presentations | CL2.4

On the need for sub-daily data to study changes in extreme rainfall. 

Daniel Argüeso and Alejandro Di Luca

Heavy rainfall is among the most impactful natural events. Our understanding of such events has improved significantly in the last decades, but large uncertainties remain around their recent and future response to a changing climate. At global scales, the frequency and intensity of daily extreme precipitation has increased, the hydrological cycle is becoming faster. However, the response at regional scales and shorter timescales is much more complex. The study of sub-daily or even sub-hourly data has been explored to some extent only, mostly due to the limited availability of data. When using high-resolution models to explore rainfall changes, it is possible to examine much higher frequencies, yet most studies focus on daily rainfall changes.

Here, we demonstrate inherent limitations of daily data to study present and future precipitation extremes. Limitations that are not purely a matter of refining our sampling, but do have a physical background because outstanding rainfall rates rarely occur over the course of a day. Our results show that fundamental aspects of rainfall changes are not described with daily data, and the assessment of future changes in daily precipitation likely leads to misrepresentation of causes and impacts. We show that the short-lived and intermittent nature of most rainfall extremes need at least hourly data to be properly characterized, otherwise heavy rainfall is poorly detected. Analyzing higher frequencies also reveals aspects of extremes that cannot be addressed with daily data, such as changes in their intensity and duration. This is particularly relevant for risk and impact assessment studies because a significant part of changes in extremes occur at sub-daily scales. Such changes go unnoticed or, even worse, are misrepresented by daily rainfall amounts.

How to cite: Argüeso, D. and Di Luca, A.: On the need for sub-daily data to study changes in extreme rainfall., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10496, 2022.

EGU22-11776 | Presentations | CL2.4

Evaluation of hourly precipitation in convection permitting models using scaling: are they better than parameterized models? 

Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, Erwan Brisson, Segolene Berthou, and Elizabeth Kendon

Convection permitting climate models (CPMs) are nowadays increasingly used in climate change assessment. These models have shown to have vastly improved convective rainfall statistics compared to parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). Here, we analyse hourly rainfall extremes within the framework of scaling, investigating the dependencies on temperature, dew point temperature as measure of absolute humidity, and dew point depression as a measure of relative humidity. We compared  7 RCM simulations and 5 CPM simulations to observations from The Netherlands (a moderate moist climate) and Southern France (a warm and dryer climate). Although present-day scaling is no simple predictor of climate change, reproducing observed dependencies on the various temperature and humidity measures provides evidence that these models are  trustworthy in a climate change setting. We find that RCMs display a large spread in outcomes, in particular in their  dependency on relative humidity and usually strongly biased towards too strong suppression of extremes in low relative humidity conditions.  CPMs have (unsurprisingly) much better overall rainfall statistics, show much less inter-model spread, and temperature and humidity dependencies more consistent with the observations. Yet, most CPMs have a climatology biased towards too low relative humidity, affecting also the rain statistics, and underestimate the frequency of rain, in particular for conditions with high relative humidity. Our results suggests that, while CPMs are clearly better in convective rain processes, improvement are needed in weakly surface forced convection as well as the overall climatology/water balance of the models. 

How to cite: Lenderink, G., de Vries, H., Brisson, E., Berthou, S., and Kendon, E.: Evaluation of hourly precipitation in convection permitting models using scaling: are they better than parameterized models?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11776, 2022.

EGU22-12310 | Presentations | CL2.4

Heatwave Climate Variability of Historical CMIP5 and CMIP6 Protocols for Turkey 

Buket Yogun, Bahattin Can Dursun, Aleyna Nur Aksu, Ipeknur Hazar, and Elcin Tan

Heatwaves occur due to atmospheric blockages and high-pressure systems' long-term stasis in the relevant regions. They are extreme weather events that negatively affect life. For example, in Turkey, wildfires during summer 2021 succeeded in a significant heatwave event. Depending on climate change, it is expected that the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves will increase. It is expected that the semi-arid zones, including Turkey, will be more affected by this change. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how well different climate models capture historical heatwave events and determine the differences depending on the CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols. Scenarios corresponding to 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 radiative forcings are discussed for both protocols. The climate models (CMCC-CM and CMCC-CM2-HR4; MRI-ESM1 and MRI-ESM2-0; and HadGEM2-ES and HadGEM3-GC31-LL) which have not been studied for Turkey until now are selected to create a model ensemble for historical heatwave events. Historical heatwaves, which occurred between 1965 and 2015, were compared with the climate models, including the CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols, using probability density functions for ten-year periods. In addition, warm spell days index (ECAHWFI), heatwave duration index (ECAHWDI), heating degree days (ECAHD) climate indices were also analyzed. Preliminary results show that the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves have increased dramatically in Turkey since 2002, and the success of historical climate models in capturing these changes varies from model to model.

How to cite: Yogun, B., Dursun, B. C., Aksu, A. N., Hazar, I., and Tan, E.: Heatwave Climate Variability of Historical CMIP5 and CMIP6 Protocols for Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12310, 2022.

EGU22-12312 | Presentations | CL2.4

Snow Cover Analysis of Turkey comparing to Historical Climate Scenarios of CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols 

Aleyna Nur Aksu, Ipeknur Hazar, Bahattin Can Dursun, Buket Yogun, and Elcin Tan

Profound changes have been observed in the precipitation pattern of Turkey due to climate change during the last decade. This variation in precipitation pattern affects the amount of snow cover and the temporal and spatial distribution of snow. In addition, significant variability was observed in the initial time of snowmelt that water resources, especially groundwater, might be adversely affected. On the other hand, this adverse effect in snow cover is also crucial for Turkey's winter sports tourism. For this reason, the study aims to analyze the historical simulation results of climate models (MIROC5 and MIROC6; CanESM2 and CanESM5; and GISS-E2-H and GISS-E2-1-H) based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols depending on snow cover variables and compare the consistency of these models with observations. Probability distribution functions of surface snow area fraction and snowfall flux variables over ten-year periods were analyzed. In addition, the frost days index (ECAFD), Ice days index (ECAID), and very cold days (ECATX10P) index were also analyzed. As a preliminary result, it was found that the snow cover values of the CMIP6 protocol climate models were more consistent with the observations.

How to cite: Aksu, A. N., Hazar, I., Dursun, B. C., Yogun, B., and Tan, E.: Snow Cover Analysis of Turkey comparing to Historical Climate Scenarios of CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12312, 2022.

EGU22-12357 | Presentations | CL2.4

Analysis of Historical Climate Scenarios of Turkey related to temperature and precipitation for comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols. 

Ipeknur Hazar, Aleyna Nur Aksu, Buket Yogun, Bahattin Can Dursun, and Elcin Tan

In the last decade, records have been broken in Turkey's temperature and precipitation observations. In 2020, including the effect of increasing urbanization, the measured temperatures in Istanbul were about 3 °C higher than the 100-year monthly average. In addition, the frequency and intensity of excessive precipitation, especially in northern Turkey, show an increasing trend. Moreover, the change in precipitation patterns is also observed due to climate change. Therefore, to decide Turkey's strategies to combat climate change, it is necessary to determine how accurately the climate model results reflect these changes. For this reason, this study aims to determine the biases of the historical climate models compared with observations. Moreover, comparisons of these models with mild and dramatic scenarios in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols are discussed. The climate models (INM-CM4 and INM-CM5; CNRM-CM5.2 and CNRM-CM6-1; and MRI-ESM1 and MRI-ESM2-0) that were not analyzed before were studied to construct an ensemble overall. Thus, it is aimed to create climate model ensembles for temperature and precipitation. Accuracies of the selected climate models are analyzed by comparing the results of the models with the observations in the 1965-2015 periods utilizing ten-year probability distribution fractions. In addition, simple Daily precipitation intensity index (ECASDII), precipitation days index (ECAPD), extremely wet days index (ECAR99P) analyzes for precipitation and very warm days index (ECATX90P), warm nights index (ECATN90P), and intra-temperature analysis for precipitation. -period extreme temperature range (ECAETR) indices were analyzed. Preliminary results show that climate models simulate temperature changes more accurately than precipitation changes for Turkey. In addition, CMIP6 results were more advantageous than CMIP5 results.

How to cite: Hazar, I., Aksu, A. N., Yogun, B., Dursun, B. C., and Tan, E.: Analysis of Historical Climate Scenarios of Turkey related to temperature and precipitation for comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12357, 2022.

EGU22-12365 | Presentations | CL2.4

Comparisons of historical CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols for the drought indices of Turkey 

Bahattin Can Dursun, Buket Yogun, İpeknur Hazar, Aleyna Nur Aksu, and Elcin Tan

Located in the semi-arid region, Turkey is much more vulnerable to the drought effects of climate change. It is expected that the severity, duration, and frequency of drought episodes will increase due to climate change. The observations reveal that the drought episodes in Turkey have increased dramatically over the last decade. For example, in 2020, the occupancy rates of dams in Istanbul dropped below 30%. Therefore, the accuracy of the projections of climate models is essential in developing adaptation strategies related to drought types. Therefore, the study aims to compare the bias of the runoff and moisture content of the climate projection models (NorESM1-M and NorESM2; FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-g3; and GFDL-CM3 and GFDL-CM4) with the observations. In addition, the scenarios in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols were compared by calculating the probability distribution functions of the flow data for ten-year periods. In addition, consecutive dry days index (ECACDD), warm spell duration index (ECAHWFI), water storage deficit index, and Palmer drought severity index are also analyzed. Preliminary conclusions indicate that climate models vary significantly in capturing historical events. For this reason, an ensemble of the models needs to be created for decision-making purposes.

How to cite: Dursun, B. C., Yogun, B., Hazar, İ., Aksu, A. N., and Tan, E.: Comparisons of historical CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols for the drought indices of Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12365, 2022.

EGU22-2472 | Presentations | CL2.5

On the sources of long-term trends of airborne birch and grass pollen 

Willem Verstraeten, Nicolas Bruffaerts, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Mikhail Sofiev, and Andy Delcloo

Airborne pollen may have a substantial contribution to respiratory allergies affecting the public health badly, especially in combination with long-term exposure by other air pollutants. In some European countries the prevalence of people with pollinosis is up to 40%. In Belgium, ~10% is sensitive to birch pollen and ~15% to grass pollen. In the future, even more people might be affected since climate change and land-use change elicit an increased amount of allergenic airborne pollen and prolonged pollen seasons.

In this study we have used the pollen transport model SILAM (System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition) for attributing the long-term changes in the releases of pollen by birches and grasses to meteorology and vegetation dynamics. The pollen transport model is applied for Belgium and is driven by ECMWF ERA5 meteorological data in a bottom-up emission approach for the period 1982-2019. The corresponding maps with grass and birch pollen emissions sources, i.e. the dynamic vegetation component, are based on merging multi-decadal datasets of spaceborne NDVI with forest inventory data and grass distribution maps for 1982-2019. For each model gridcell we compute temporal trends based on the Theil Sen slopes and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the seasonal birch and grass pollen cycles based on daily pollen levels, and of the daily meteorological model input for the period 1982-2019. The gridcell based association between trends in pollen and meteorology are derived based on the Kendall correlation coefficient.

Our findings indicate that the increasing radiation, the decreasing precipitation and the decreasing horizontal wind speed are associated with a strong increase in birch pollen levels for the period 1982-2019. The decreasing grass pollen levels in the air over the same period are associated with decreasing precipitation. This is, however, induced by the decreasing trend in grass pollen sources. The associations between meteorology and airborne birch pollen levels are much stronger compared to grass pollen. The specific contribution of birch pollen production dynamics to the levels of birch pollen in the air is highly associated with wind speed and precipitation. By introducing the inter-seasonal variation in birch pollen production the overall increase rate is dampened with ~7%. In contrast, the grass pollen production dynamics resulted into 3.5 times less grass pollen in the air over the studied period.

How to cite: Verstraeten, W., Bruffaerts, N., Kouznetsov, R., Sofiev, M., and Delcloo, A.: On the sources of long-term trends of airborne birch and grass pollen, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2472, 2022.

EGU22-2500 | Presentations | CL2.5

Artificial neural network models applied to olive tree phenology in Italy reveal daily insolation control of budbreak 

Claudia Cagnarini, Giorgio Gnecco, Amelia Salimonti, Francesco Zaffina, Nafeesa Samad, and Maria Vincenza Chiriacò

Olive (Olea europaea L.) trees are traditionally cultivated in the Mediterranean basin, providing both healthy food and ecosystem services, such as climate change mitigation and soil erosion control, particularly in arid areas. Despite its importance, olive phenology, as impacted by climate change, is under-studied. To tackle this gap, we assessed the potential of feed-forward artificial neural network models to predict five main olive phenophases (apex budbreak, inflorescence, flowering, pit hardening and olive maturation index 1) at their onset for cultivars ‘Picholine’, ‘Carolea’ and ‘Coratina'. The dataset was collected from seven sites across Italy during the years 1997-2000.  Due to gaps in the dataset, the models were initialized by supervised training with the subset of full phenological observations, followed by semisupervised training based on the full dataset and iterative estimations of the missing observations. The softmax activation function was used in the output layer by interpreting the incremental phenological transitions as proportional to probabilities. The networks with at least four hidden layers activated by the sigmoid function and trained with the momentum method and linearly-decreasing parameters were best performing (validation RMSE of 15.5 d and 17.1 d for ‘Picholine’ and ‘Carolea’, respectively). Daily insolation consistently improved budbreak prediction with respect to daily mean temperature, suggesting the operation of photoreceptor activation mechanisms. Inflorescence was better predicted when daily minimum temperature was added, consistent with a chilling-warm requirement mechanism. Flowering was less consistent, but mean temperature was a primary controlling cue. Therefore, each phenophase is likely controlled by different climate cues. When tested on two independent flowering dates in 2017 and 2018 from one of the sites , the best performing models for each cultivar gave median errors of 4.3 d, 12.1 d, 7.4 d and 3.7 d for the ‘Picholine’, ‘Carolea’, ‘Coratina’ and the combinaed ‘Picholine+Carolea+Coratina’, respectively. The worse predictions for 'Carolea' is likely due to the hypothesized sensitivity of this cultivar to climate change, that occurred in the years between the training and the testing observations. Therefore, the olive sensitivity to climate change could be strongly cultivar-dependent, which calls for more in-depth investigation in the future. The calibrated models can be used both as operational and hypothesis-testing tools to study climate change effects on olive phenology. 

How to cite: Cagnarini, C., Gnecco, G., Salimonti, A., Zaffina, F., Samad, N., and Chiriacò, M. V.: Artificial neural network models applied to olive tree phenology in Italy reveal daily insolation control of budbreak, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2500, 2022.

EGU22-2589 | Presentations | CL2.5

How does environmental context influence the leaf phenology of tree species in Maritime Canada? 

Lynsay Spafford and Andrew H. MacDougall

Hemiboreal forest encompasses the shifting optimal distribution limits of both boreal and temperate forest types, providing an opportunity to develop insights for the potential effects of global change on each forest type. Leaf phenology, the timing of leaf life cycle events, serves as a dynamic indicator of biological response to climate change and signifies the potential robustness or susceptibility of particular species to future change. In order to better understand how environmental context influences the leaf phenology of hemiboreal tree species we installed a network of 34 leaf phenocam stations across Maritime Canada encompassing a range of 3° latitude and 2 °C in annual average temperatures. The most common broadleaf species observed were red maple (Acer rubrum) and paper birch (Betula papyrifera), while the most common needleleaf species we observed were red spruce (Picea rubens) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea). Our phenocam stations consist of a solar-powered consumer grade cellular time-lapse camera and colour reference panel, and were installed prior to and throughout the 2019, 2020, and 2021 growing seasons. We dissected image field of views into regions of interest corresponding to discernable individuals and used green chromatic coordinate curve fitting and threshold extraction approaches. We found that most species had a high degree of plasticity in phenological response to varying site conditions, though some had a conserved response to varying site conditions relative to other species. We also observed an unusually early fall green-down for paper birch at one site in July of 2021. This suggests that climate change may have differential effects on hemiboreal tree species due to phenology triggers being distinct among species. This work demonstrates the complexity of environmental influence upon leaf phenology, as well as the utility of phenocams in monitoring leaf phenology in remote regions of Maritime Canada.

How to cite: Spafford, L. and MacDougall, A. H.: How does environmental context influence the leaf phenology of tree species in Maritime Canada?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2589, 2022.

EGU22-3827 | Presentations | CL2.5

A distributed time-lapse camera network on high-arctic Svalbard to track vegetation phenology with high temporal detail and at varying scales 

Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Lennart Nilsen, Hans Tømmervik, and Elisabeth J. Cooper

Near-surface remote sensing techniques are essential monitoring tools to provide spatial and temporal resolutions beyond the capabilities of orbital methods. This high level of detail is especially helpful to monitor specific plant communities and to accurately time the phenological stages of vegetation – which satellites can miss by days or weeks in frequently clouded areas such as the Arctic. Therefore, we established a measurement network that is distributed across varying plant communities in the high arctic valley of Adventdalen on the Svalbard archipelago, with the aim to monitor vegetation phenology. The network consists of ten racks equipped with sensors that measure NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), soil temperature and moisture, as well as time-lapse RGB cameras. Three additional time-lapse cameras are placed on nearby mountain tops to provide an overview of the valley. From these RGB photos we derived the vegetation index GCC (Green Chromatic Channel), which has similar applications as NDVI but at a fraction of the cost of NDVI imaging sensors. To create a robust timeseries for GCC, each set of photos was adjusted for unwanted movement of the camera with a stabilizing algorithm that enhances the spatial precision of these measurements. We show how this data can be used to monitor different vegetation communities in the landscape and that this can form the basis for a direct comparison to space-borne observations and further upscaling.

How to cite: Parmentier, F.-J. W., Nilsen, L., Tømmervik, H., and Cooper, E. J.: A distributed time-lapse camera network on high-arctic Svalbard to track vegetation phenology with high temporal detail and at varying scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3827, 2022.

EGU22-4336 | Presentations | CL2.5

The new web application of the Phenological Network of Catalonia (Fenocat) 

Montserrat Busto, Xavier de Yzaguirre, and Jordi Cunillera

The Phenological network of Catalonia (Fenocat) was established by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) in 2013, due to the lack of phenological records in Catalonia and with the aim to preserve the former phenological information available to study the impact of climate change on natural ecosystems.

Based on citizen science, today the network consists of 60 volunteers around Catalonia that observe 25 different spices of wild and crop plants, 14 birds and 6 butterflies. The observation is done two or three times per week in order to record both the onset and the duration of the different phenophases. BBCH code is used for vegetal species, and the data is sent regularly to PEP725 database. 

Until 2021, observers submitted their observations by email on a monthly base, which had to be manually inserted into the database. This slowed down the quality control and exploitation of the database, which could never be done in real time. 

Since January 2022, an object-relational database is created with the open-source system PostgreSQL, permitting the storage and management of all the information from the Fenocat network, and conducting real-time inquiries to generate, visualize and download reports. In addition, observers are able to enter the information directly into the database via a web application. Fenocat web application makes data entry more flexible -the data can be introduced in situ at the same moment that is observed by any device with internet connection (mobile phone, tablet or PC computer)- and allows the observer to compare their observations with those produced by other observers.

Both, the new database and the web application, mean a significant step forward in the management of the Phenological Network of Catalonia, strengthening our relationship with the observers, enhancing the data analysis and opening the door to a network expansion. 

How to cite: Busto, M., de Yzaguirre, X., and Cunillera, J.: The new web application of the Phenological Network of Catalonia (Fenocat), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4336, 2022.

EGU22-6845 | Presentations | CL2.5

Phenological and thermal growing season changes in the Baltics 

Gunta Kalvane, Andis Kalvans, and Agrita Briede

One of the most visible signs of climate change in nature are shifting growing cycles. In northern areas, mostly energy limited environments, the growing seasonality is usually defined in 3 different ways:
- frost free period: time period between last spring frost and first autumn frost;
- thermal growing season: in the Baltic region traditionally is defined as the number of days with mean temperatures above 5°C. 
- phenological growing season: the period between leaf unfolding (BBCH11) and senescence (coloring (BBCH92) or leaf fall (BBCH93)).

In this study we examine recent trends in growing season length in the Baltic region according to these 3 definitions from 1991-2020. The duration of frost-free period and thermal growing season was calculated using the gridded daily temperature from the E-OBS data set version v24.0e (Cornes et al., 2018). The phenological growing season was examined using a recently published open source phenological observations data set (Kalvāne et al, 2021) and remote sensing leaf area index (LAI) obtained from Copernicus data store.
Changes in the growing season vary within species, for example, for Acer platanoides, the prolongation of the growth trend is highly pronounced due to earlier flowering and later onset of autumn phases. For Populus tremula on the other hand, the changes in flowering are not as significant as the changes in the autumn phases (occurring on average later, the trend of which is positive), and the trend in the duration of the growing season is neutral.  The results indicate a statistically significant trend toward pioneer species such as Alnus incana and Corylus avellana.  The data regarding the end of the growing season is less conclusive. Autumn senescence in many cases does not show a significant trend.
However rising temperatures contribute to the increasing length of the thermal growing season. These thermal shifts have already influenced the bird migratory patterns, for example later migration of  Anser anser, as well as agricultural practices - sowing of winter cereals and soil cultivation - are taking place later in the autumn than it used to (Kalvāne and Kalvāns, 2021).
This study has shown that significant seasonal changes have taken place across the Baltics landscape due to climate change.

This study was carried out within the framework of the Climate change and sustainable use of natural resources institutional research grant of the University of Latvia (No. AAP2016/B041//ZD2016/AZ03) and the Latvian Council of Science, project “Spatial and temporal prediction of groundwater drought with mixed models for multilayer sedimentary basin under climate change” (No. lzp-2019/1-0165).
 
References: Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M. and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123(17), 9391–9409, doi:10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.
Kalvāne, G., Kalvāns, A., Ģērmanis, A.: Long term phenological data set of multi-taxonomic groups and agrarian activities, abiotical parameters from Northern Europa, Latvia, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4621–4633.,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4621-2021, 2021
Kalvāne, G. and Kalvāns, A.: Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970-2018, Int. J. Biometeorol., 65, 895–904, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02068-8, 2021.

How to cite: Kalvane, G., Kalvans, A., and Briede, A.: Phenological and thermal growing season changes in the Baltics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6845, 2022.

EGU22-7063 | Presentations | CL2.5

Towards a new autumn phenology model integrating seasonal productivity, climate, and day length 

Constantin M. Zohner, Leila Mirzagholi, Raymo Bucher, Susanne S. Renner, Lidong Mo, Daniel Palouš, Yann Vitasse, and Thomas W. Crowther

Predicting the timing of autumn leaf senescence in northern trees remains challenging because the seasonal interplay in the effects of day length, climate, and plant productivity is not well understood. This severely limits our ability to forecast vegetation activity and carbon uptake in temperate and boreal ecosystems. Here we present a new framework for predicting autumn senescence dates based on the idea that day length mediates the effects of climate on autumn phenology, with early-season (pre-solstice) growth and late-season temperatures constituting antagonistic forces. To test these predictions, we used a combination of satellite-derived vegetation productivity across Northern Hemisphere forests, ground-sourced European phenology observations of four widespread tree species, and a climate-manipulation experiment on European beech. Our results reveal important constraints on the late-season carbon uptake potential of northern trees, improving our understanding of vegetation dynamics in response to climate change.

How to cite: Zohner, C. M., Mirzagholi, L., Bucher, R., Renner, S. S., Mo, L., Palouš, D., Vitasse, Y., and Crowther, T. W.: Towards a new autumn phenology model integrating seasonal productivity, climate, and day length, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7063, 2022.

EGU22-8446 | Presentations | CL2.5

Individual and Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2, Warming and Drought on the Phenology of Mountain Grassland 

Lumnesh Swaroop Kumar Joseph, Edoardo Cremonese, Mirco Migliavacca, Andreas Schaumberger, and Michael Bahn

Mountain grasslands are strongly exposed to multiple global changes, including elevated CO2, climate warming and the increased occurrence of drought events. While the individual effects of these global change drivers on the phenology of grasslands have been comparatively well studied, there is a lack of understanding of their interactive effects. In a multifactor global change experiment on a managed montane grassland typical for many parts of the Alps, we tested the individual and combined effects of elevated CO2 (eCO2; +300 ppm), warming (eT; +3°C) and severe summer drought on phenology. We derived the canopy-level phenological transition dates from Green Chromatic Coordinates (GCC) time series calculated from phenocam images. Preliminary results reveal that warming, individually and when combined with elevated CO2, led to an early spring advancement and that drought accelerated senescence, more strongly under future (eCO2 + eT) compared to ambient conditions. Our preliminary findings suggest non-additive effects of interacting global change drivers on the phenology of mountain grassland, with cascading consequences for grassland productivity.

How to cite: Joseph, L. S. K., Cremonese, E., Migliavacca, M., Schaumberger, A., and Bahn, M.: Individual and Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2, Warming and Drought on the Phenology of Mountain Grassland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8446, 2022.

EGU22-8655 | Presentations | CL2.5

Data-driven modelling of canopy greenness dynamics reveals short- and long-term meteorological effects on phenology 

Guohua Liu, Alexander J. Winkler, and Mirco Migliavacca

Vegetation phenology, measured as the seasonal canopy greenness signal, is highly sensitive to present as well as past meteorological conditions. However, how these meteorological conditions affect canopy greenness on the short-term and the long-term (memory effects from previous climatic conditions) is still unclear, and modeling these effects on vegetation phenology in particular is a major challenge. In this study, we develop data-driven models to identify the influence of short- and long-term memory effects of temperature, radiation and water availability on the canopy greenness using data-adaptive approaches, such as random forest regression (RF) models and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) setups. We use the Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) from the PhenoCam network as a proxy for canopy greenness and meteorological observations from the DayMet dataset. We find that the importance of these short-term vs. long-term memory effects on canopy greenness differs across the plant functional types. For deciduous forest, roughly the last 10 days of minimum temperature and the photoperiod are identified to be the key drivers of canopy greenness, while in grasslands also the water availability and its long-term memory are important factors in controlling the seasonal course of canopy greenness. Additionally, our results show that an LSTM approach with embedded predictor memory effects outperforms a model without the memory effect (such as RF) in simulating the canopy greenness, and captured memory length varies across meteorological predictors with short temperature and radiation memory and long water memory. Our findings highlight the importance of memory effects of environmental conditions throughout the season across different time scales for canopy greenness and the fundamental role of water availability, often neglected in phenological models. Accounting for these effects in such data-driven approaches opens up new avenues for improving the representation of phenological processes in models, such as Earth system models.

How to cite: Liu, G., Winkler, A. J., and Migliavacca, M.: Data-driven modelling of canopy greenness dynamics reveals short- and long-term meteorological effects on phenology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8655, 2022.

EGU22-9894 | Presentations | CL2.5

Quantifying global phenological trends, their drivers, and the effects on terrestrial carbon uptake 

Leila Mirzagholi, Constantin M. Zohner, and Thomas W. Crowther

Remote sensing data show a widespread increasing trend in gross primary productivity and leaf area index since the 1980s, which can be attributed to both the magnitude of the seasonal greenness and the length of the growing season (phenological shifts). These phenological shifts result in changes in water, nutrient, and energy fluxes hence altering terrestrial carbon uptake under climate change. In this presentation we address the following key questions: i) What are the temporal trends in phenological shifts in Earth's different biomes? ii) What are the main drivers of these shifts across different biomes? More specifically, what is the relative importance of external environmental drivers such as temperature, precipitation, and radiation versus internal vegetation feedbacks such as growth and nutrient limitation? iii) To what extent are phenological shifts of the beginning and end of the growing season determining trends in gross primary productivity? These results are crucial for forecasting long-term changes in the carbon cycle under climate change.

How to cite: Mirzagholi, L., Zohner, C. M., and Crowther, T. W.: Quantifying global phenological trends, their drivers, and the effects on terrestrial carbon uptake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9894, 2022.

EGU22-10165 | Presentations | CL2.5

Long-term trends towards delayed autumn senescence prevail over short-term effects by high early-season CO2 assimilation 

Laura Marqués, Koen Hufkens, Christof Bigler, Thomas W. Crowther, Constantin M. Zohner, and Benjamin D. Stocker

Understanding how leaf autumn phenology varies at different spatio-temporal scales is key to accurately predicting phenological changes under future climate. Recent projections and observations of autumn phenology in deciduous temperate and boreal forests appear conflicting. At the interannual scale, autumn senescence correlates positively with spring leaf-out and negatively with growing season total photosynthesis. These links have been interpreted as the effect of premature carbon sink saturation with potentially far-reaching consequences for carbon cycle projections in a high-COworld. In this study, we use multi-decadal ground and remote-sensing observations to show that these relationships are opposite at the interannual and the decadal time scales. We found a decadal trend towards later autumn senescence in parallel with a trend towards increasing photosynthesis, despite their negative relationship at the interannual scale. Our findings reveal that the leaf longevity constraint has not remained stationary over longer time scales. These shifting relationships suggest a gradual acclimation of phenology, leading to a relief of effects that dominate year-to-year variations. This apparent acclimation implies that in the long run, trees may benefit from increased photosynthesis under rising CO2 and evade a direct effect by which increased photosynthesis induces an earlier leaf senescence. This apparent plasticity in phenology appears to have driven plants towards optimal functioning in a changing climate.

How to cite: Marqués, L., Hufkens, K., Bigler, C., Crowther, T. W., Zohner, C. M., and Stocker, B. D.: Long-term trends towards delayed autumn senescence prevail over short-term effects by high early-season CO2 assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10165, 2022.

EGU22-11114 | Presentations | CL2.5

Connecting science and citizens via R shiny apps – an interactive online toolbox for phenological observations 

Ye Yuan, Alissa Lüpke, Simon Kloos, Anudari Batsaikhan, Andreas Divanis, and Annette Menzel

Real-time on-site observations are the fundamentals for studies of climate change, especially in phenology. The online environmental data collection and analysis platform BAYSICS has been developed for Bavaria, Germany, in order to assist and promote essential climatic related research to citizen scientists. In this study, we focus on presenting a novel aspect from such an integrated network – using interactive web applications to guide citizen scientists through applied climate change topics, and further develop their very own research questions which could be answered with the assistance of shiny apps. The following implemented shiny apps will be introduced in detail: Green Warming Stripes – a simple and direct visualization in coloured stripes showing the effects of climate change on the seasonal development of plants; PhenoInterpol – a map tool to visualize the phenological interpolated map in Bavaria as well as to perform phenological long-term trend analyses as a citizen scientist combining historical and his/her own observations; TECCS – an easy-to-use simulation tool for investigating the possible effects of winter and/or spring warming on bud break. More functionalities have been planned with the aim of building better connections between the scientific community and citizen society. In such a way we believe that not only data-based scientific research can be improved (database, models, and more) but also educational efforts based on “inquiry-based learning” related to climate change can be achieved.

How to cite: Yuan, Y., Lüpke, A., Kloos, S., Batsaikhan, A., Divanis, A., and Menzel, A.: Connecting science and citizens via R shiny apps – an interactive online toolbox for phenological observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11114, 2022.

EGU22-11863 | Presentations | CL2.5

Why does the leaf of Japanese Cypress in temperate region experience transient leaf reddening under winter excessive light stress 

Siyu Chen, Yoshiko Kosugi, Linjie Jiao, Tatsuro Nakaji, Hibiki Noda, Kouki Hikosaka, and Kenlo Nasahara

The leaves of evergreen coniferous species in the temperate region sometimes were observed to change from green to red before or during winter and persist until next spring. This phenomenon is also called 'winter leaf reddening', which might be a photoprotection strategy for plant leaves to deal with excess light stress during winter and early spring. In gymnosperms, the xanthophyll cycle (VAZ cycle) and accumulation of red pigment (e. g. rhodoxanthin) can prevent excess light damage to the photosynthetic apparatus. However, the joint role of these two processes in corresponding with canopy photosynthesis under winter excess light stress has not been further studied. This study aimed to clarify: (1) whether the low temperature is the dominant factor affecting the winter leaf reddening phenomenon and ascertain the air temperature conditions when this phenomenon occurs; (2) whether rhodoxanthin and the VAZ cycle play a collaborating role in regulating low light-use efficiency (LUE) under low air temperature conditions during the winter season; (3) the difference between two leaf redness indicators obtained from phenological method and remote sensing method.

Canopy leaf redness indicators were obtained in two ways. The automated system with a digital camera was used to monitor the canopy phenological changes. The RGB channels of image data were extracted to calculate the Red-Green vegetation index (RGVI). Red index (RI) is obtained by spectral reflectance analysis to track rhodoxanthin variation patterns. The photochemical reflectance index (PRI) was utilized as a tool to reflect the VAZ cycle. The canopy CO2 flux was measured with the eddy covariance method, which can be used to calculate LUE. Micrometeorological data were also monitored.

Our results suggest that low air temperatures in winter play a domain role in the occurrence of winter leaf reddening. The onset of winter leaf reddening was accompanied by a decrease in LUE and PRI and a corresponding increase in RGVI. This suggests that the accumulation of rhodopsin and the VAZ cycle may play a collaborative role in regulating LUE under the combined effect of chilling temperatures and high solar radiation conditions. There were temporal differences in the peak occurrence of RI and RGVI, but the change characteristics were largely consistent, which may indicate that RI can more sensitively monitor the timing of red appearance in the vegetation canopy.

Keywords: winter leaf reddening, Japanese cypress, photochemical reflectance index (PRI), Red index (RI), Red-Green vegetation index (RGVI), phenological analysis, digital camera, light-use efficiency (LUE)

How to cite: Chen, S., Kosugi, Y., Jiao, L., Nakaji, T., Noda, H., Hikosaka, K., and Nasahara, K.: Why does the leaf of Japanese Cypress in temperate region experience transient leaf reddening under winter excessive light stress, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11863, 2022.

EGU22-13004 | Presentations | CL2.5

Phenocams as a tool to investigate leaf economic spectrum relations in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests 

Patrícia Morellato, Nattalia Neves, Bruna Alberton, Magna Moura, Romualdo Lima, Eduardo Souza, Rodolfo Souza, José Raliuson Silva, Raquel Miatto, Tomas Domingues, John Cunha, and Desiree Ramos

Leaf construction can be costly to plants with a short leaf lifespan (LLS), with a necessity to pay back the investment in leaf deployment. Costs of leaf construction are often measured as leaf mass per area (LMA) and the deciduousness strategies (deciduous, semideciduous or evergreen) used as proxy to LLS (evergreen species having longest leaf duration compared to semideciduous and deciduous species). According to the leaf economic spectrum theory, a positive correlation between LMA and LLS is expected, with evergreen species having higher LMA than deciduous species. Nonetheless, aridity constraints increase leaf maintenance costs in plants, and the deciduous strategy turns to be the most common leaf exchange behavior in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTF). In this study we are testing if the relation of LMA and LLS is influenced by aridity in SDTF, using the length of growing season (LOS) as a proxy of overall response for drought. We expect that LMA: LLS relationship will become stronger towards driest sites. The caatinga vegetation is the largest SDTF in the New World, covering an area of ca. 850,000 km2 located in North-eastern Brazil. Although the region is characterized by having low amount of rainfall (<1100 mm per year), there is a gradient of aridity that affects plants living across these areas. We applied the near-surface remote method trough the usage of phenocams to simultaneously monitor leaf phenology of 27 tree species from four areas of Caatinga, in a gradient of aridity ranging from 387 mm to 800 mm total annual rainfall. For these species, we used the green chromatic coordinate (Gcc) time series to calculate the phenological transition dates of Start (SOS) and End (EOS) and the Length (LOS) of Growing Season, during two to four growing seasons, from 2017 to 2021. LOS presented high variability among species, ranging from 143 days for Manihot pseudoglaziovii and 314 days for Aspidosperma pyrifolium. In general, LOS tend to be shorter for species towards driest sites and analyes of the relation between LMA and LLS are suggesting trade-offs important to understand the acquisitive strategies of plants from semi-arid vegetation with implications for carbon fluxes.

Supported by FAPESP (#2019/11835-2); FAPESP-NERC (FAPESP #2015/50488-5; #2017/17380-1), by CNPq and FACEPE (Caatinga-FLUX, #483223/2011-5 and Caatinga-FLUX Fase 2, #0062-1.07/15); UNESP CAPES-PrInt Program (grant #88887.310463/2018-00; schoolarship ##88887.512218/2020-00) and CNPq productitivity fellowship (#428055/2018-4).

How to cite: Morellato, P., Neves, N., Alberton, B., Moura, M., Lima, R., Souza, E., Souza, R., Silva, J. R., Miatto, R., Domingues, T., Cunha, J., and Ramos, D.: Phenocams as a tool to investigate leaf economic spectrum relations in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13004, 2022.

EGU22-4629 | Presentations | OS1.8

Marine heat waves: The added value of a high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model 

Marie Pontoppidan, Chiara De Falco, Priscilla A. Mooney, and Jerry Tjiputra

Marine ecosystems are largely impacted by marine heat waves (MHWs). That includes coral reefs which are experiencing coral bleaching and subsequently loss of marine biodiversity because of MHWs. Such reefs are crucial habitat of fish stocks feeding the world’s population. As ocean temperatures increase, the occurrences of MHWs become more frequent. A further solid mechanistic understanding is therefore urgently required for adaptation and mitigation of future changes in MHWs. Importantly, this knowledge is needed on a local-scale.

Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere regional modelling system (COAWST), consisting of the atmospheric model WRF and the ocean model ROMS, to dynamically downscale an area over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Compared to a global model with coarser horizontal resolution, our 12 km grid spacing resolves smaller scale phenomena and ensures a skilled representation of the air-sea interactions which are important for a correct representation of MHWs. We show the results of a 20-year regional climate simulation and compare the output with two global climate model simulations (NorESM2-MM and NorESM2-MH) to address the added value of the regional simulation. Our high-resolution simulation represents the temporal distribution (frequency and duration) of MHWs well compared to the coarser global models which produce too few, but too long heatwaves in the area.

How to cite: Pontoppidan, M., De Falco, C., Mooney, P. A., and Tjiputra, J.: Marine heat waves: The added value of a high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4629, 2022.

EGU22-5292 | Presentations | OS1.8

Future weakening of southeastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean interannual SST variability in a nested coupled model 

Arthur Prigent, Rodrigue Anicet Imbol Koungue, Joke F. Lübbecke, Peter Brandt, Tobias Bayr, Jan Harlaß, and Mojib Latif

Tropical Atlantic interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability has significantly weakened since 2000. Here, we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model with an embedded high-resolution nest in the tropical Atlantic Ocean to investigate future changes in the southeastern tropical Atlantic SST variability in response to anthropogenic global warming. In the model, the Angola-Benguela Area (ABA) is among the regions in the tropical Atlantic that exhibit the largest surface warming. Relative to 1970-1999, the SST variability in the ABA during the peak season, May-June-July (MJJ), decreases by about 24% during 2070-2099 under the worst-case scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5). The MJJ interannual temperature variability weakens along the Angolan and Namibian coasts in the top 40 m of the ocean. This reduction appears to be due to a smaller temperature response to thermocline-depth variations, i.e. a weaker thermocline feedback. The weaker thermocline feedback is found where the thermocline deepens the most. Our model results suggest that the trend towards a weakening of the interannual SST variability in the ABA observed during the recent decades could persist in the future under a worst-case global warming scenario.

How to cite: Prigent, A., Imbol Koungue, R. A., Lübbecke, J. F., Brandt, P., Bayr, T., Harlaß, J., and Latif, M.: Future weakening of southeastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean interannual SST variability in a nested coupled model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5292, 2022.

EGU22-5559 | Presentations | OS1.8

Seasonal mixed layer heat budget in coastal waters off Angola 

Mareike Körner, Peter Brandt, and Marcus Dengler

The Angolan shelf system represents a highly productive ecosystem that exhibits pronounced seasonal variability. Productivity peaks in austral winter when seasonally prevailing upwelling favorable winds are weakest. Thus, other processes than local wind-driven upwelling contribute to the near-coastal cooling and nutrient supply during this season. Possible processes that lead to changes of the mixed-layer heat content does not only include local mechanism but also the passage of remotely forced coastally trapped waves. Understanding the driving mechanisms of changes in the mixed-layer heat content that may be locally or remotely forced is also vital for understanding of upward nutrient supply and biological productivity off Angola. Here, we investigate the seasonal mixed layer heat budget by analyzing atmospheric and oceanic causes for heat content variability. By using different satellite and in-situ data, we derive monthly estimates of surface heat fluxes, horizontal advection, diapycnal heat fluxes and local heat storage. The results show that the contribution of horizontal heat advection is small. When considering surface heat fluxes and horizontal heat advection only, the local mixed layer heat budget cannot be closed and the resulting residuum increases closer to the coast. Diapycnal heat fluxes at the base of the mixed layer and uncertainties of surface heat fluxes are suggested to explain the residuum. Our data suggests that the magnitude of diapycnal heat fluxes is controlled by stratification with stronger stratification reducing diapycnal heat fluxes. We conclude that local and remote impacts on stratification need to be examined in order to understand the mixed layer heat budget variability off Angola.

How to cite: Körner, M., Brandt, P., and Dengler, M.: Seasonal mixed layer heat budget in coastal waters off Angola, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5559, 2022.

Models, theory and observations suggest that symmetric instability is excited in the North Brazil Current after it crosses the equator. The instability is fuelled by the advection of waters with anomalous potential vorticity from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere. There also exists a deep western boundary current which sits below the North Brazil Current. This current advects anomalous potential vorticity across the equator too, and so also becomes symmetrically unstable upon crossing it. Numerical models and scaling arguments will be used to predict the similarities and differences between the action of symmetric instability in the surface and deep currents. We will then explore how the excitement of the instability affects the structure of the deep western boundary current, and how this impacts the development of mesoscale features further down-stream.

How to cite: Goldsworth, F., Marshall, D., and Johnson, H.: Symmetric instability in the surface and deep components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation close to the equator, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5802, 2022.

EGU22-6900 | Presentations | OS1.8

Response of the upper ocean circulation to tropical Atlantic interannual modes 

Marta Martín-Rey, Ignasi Vallès-Casanova, and Josep Lluis Pelegri

The scarcity of in-situ measurements and the variability among individual events has limited our understanding of the drivers and impacts of the tropical Atlantic Ocean circulation. Here we investigate the response of the surface and subsurface ocean circulation to the two main modes of tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV): the Meridional Mode (MM) and Equatorial Mode (EM). For this purpose, we use three oceanic reanalyses and an interannual forced-ocean simulation covering the period 1982-2018. The developing phase of the MM is associated with a spring intensification of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and the north South Equatorial Current (nSEC) in the eastern equatorial margin. It also triggers Rossby waves that reach the western boundary and are reflected as equatorial Kelvin waves that weaken the ocean surface and subsurface transports and cause anomalous warm equatorial conditions in boreal summer. During the developing spring-summer phase of the EM, the westward surface zonal transport is considerably reduced with no clear impact at subsurface levels. During the fall EM decaying phase, the reflected Kelvin wave reverses the zonal pressure-gradients at the equator and the westward equatorial nSEC is reinforced. This is accompanied by a weakening of the EUC that suggests an additional off-equatorial forcing. Our results reveal that the ocean circulation responds to both MM and EM, endorsing the key role played by the propagating zonal waves in connecting the tropical and equatorial ocean transports.

How to cite: Martín-Rey, M., Vallès-Casanova, I., and Pelegri, J. L.: Response of the upper ocean circulation to tropical Atlantic interannual modes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6900, 2022.

EGU22-11006 | Presentations | OS1.8

Is equatorial Atlantic variability resurging? 

Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga, Yuko Okumura, and Noel Keenlyside

The equatorial Atlantic is subject to interannual variability that is centered in the eastern cold tongue region and is known as the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM). Previous studies have indicated that AZM variability has declined over the recent decades and this tendency is projected to continue based on climate change simulations. The period 2000 to mid-2019 was arguably most conspicuous in this regard, as it did not contain any major AZM event. In late 2019, however, the strongest event in more than 40 years developed. This was followed, in 2021, by an equally warm event. In the present work we examine the mechanisms behind these recent events. We show that while the accompanying wind stress forcing was strong, it cannot account for the exceptional strength of the two events. Analysis suggests that Ekman pumping north of the equator contributed to the strength of the events by generating downwelling Rossby waves that were reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves at the equator. In addition, an examination of observed sea-surface height and ocean temperature from reanalysis and PIRATA buoys suggests that there was a steady buildup of heat in the eastern equatorial region (20W-10E, 10S-5N) since about 2015. This excessive heat content was discharged during the 2019 and 2021 events and may have contributed to their exceptional strength. Our results highlight the need for a close monitoring of oceanic conditions in the region. This will not only have implications for seasonal prediction but also for the long-term development of AZM variability.

How to cite: Richter, I., Tokinaga, H., Okumura, Y., and Keenlyside, N.: Is equatorial Atlantic variability resurging?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11006, 2022.

EGU22-11894 | Presentations | OS1.8

Origin of the recent warming along the Angola Namibia coast 

Folly Serge Tomety, Mathieu Rouault, Founi Mesmin Awo, and Noel Sebastian Keenlyside

The Angola Benguela Front (ABF), is a very dynamic area, characterized by a high-temperature gradient of up to 4°C per degree latitude. It fluctuates in position and intensity seasonally which strongly affects the local marine ecosystem. A lot of research, in the past decades, has focused on the SST variability at the interannual timescale in the ABF and the Angolan and Northern Namibian coast to the north and south of it in the contest of Benguela Niños and Niñas. A warming trend since the 1980’s in that region has been reported in the literature and was attributed to a decreasing trend in wind speed. In this study, we look at the processes responsible for the warming in the ABF region. The OGCM NEMO model is used for that matter. The results suggest that the warming is due to various processes acting during different seasons. In autumn, the modelled SST warming trend occurs along the Angolan sector and it is associated with a positive trend in net surface heat flux (Qnet) and with the weakening of the vertical flow associated with the upwelling of cooler water to the surface. In early summer (November-January), the modelled SST warming trend occurs along the Angolan and Namibian sector and it is primarily associated with the intensification of a coastal poleward flow bringing more warm water from the tropics into the ABF region and with the weakening of vertical flow, while locally, Qnet trend generates a cooling trend. The modelled SST cooling trend that occurred south of the ABF, especially in winter and early spring, is primarily associated with a northwards trend in the horizontal subsurface current that advects cooler water from the south and an intensification of the upwelling of cold water to the surface.

 

How to cite: Tomety, F. S., Rouault, M., Awo, F. M., and Keenlyside, N. S.: Origin of the recent warming along the Angola Namibia coast, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11894, 2022.

EGU22-12308 | Presentations | OS1.8

Interhemispheric asymmetries, ITCZ location and interannual tropical Atlantic-Pacific interactions produced by South Atlantic cooling. 

Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, C. Roberto Mechoso, Elsa Mohino, and Antonio Castaño-Tierno

Tropical interbasin teleconnections at inter-annual time scales are receiving much attention in the last years. However, their controlling factors and long-term changes are still under debate. In this work, we investigate whether selected features in the climatology, the position of the ITCZ and strong tropical convection, can influence the teleconnections between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific basins at inter-annual timescales.

For investigation, we contrast a CGCM control simulation with an experiment in which the climatological position of the ITCZ is shifted in latitude by artificially reducing the shortwave radiation incident in a region of the south Atlantic sector. The perturbation magnitude and sign are such that the local model’s biases in Atlantic SST are reduced. The experiment shows stronger interannual variability over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a westward extension of the Atlantic Niño pattern, and enhanced interannual teleconnections between equatorial Atlantic and Pacific.

We examine the mechanisms at work for these changes. We find several factors as major contributors to enhance the tropical interbasin teleconnections. One is the modified Walker circulation resulting from the westward extension of SST anomalies during the Atlantic Niño and concurrent westward displacement of convection. The other factors are the enhancement of the precipitation at the equator and the shallowing of thermocline in the Pacific, which make the latter basin more sensitive to both local and remote perturbations.

On the contrary, the North Tropical Atlantic – equatorial Pacific teleconnection is weakened in the experiment, despite the strongest impact of the NTA anomalies in the north tropical Pacific winds. due to the opposite effect on divergence exerted by the off equatorial winds related to NTA and the equatorial winds related to the concomitant warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific.

How to cite: Losada, T., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Mechoso, C. R., Mohino, E., and Castaño-Tierno, A.: Interhemispheric asymmetries, ITCZ location and interannual tropical Atlantic-Pacific interactions produced by South Atlantic cooling., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12308, 2022.

EGU22-12325 | Presentations | OS1.8

Influence of subsurface tropical instability waves on sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic 

Mia Sophie Specht, Johann Jungclaus, and Jürgen Bader

Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) at the equatorial Atlantic Ocean lead to SST cooling due to enhanced mixing and heat fluxes above the EUC core. This phenomenon has been studied predominantly at the equator and to the north, where TIWs are most pronounced. However, a recent study has shown the presence of subsurface TIWs in the Atlantic Ocean, which frequently occur to the south of the equator. As TIW induced subsurface mixing leads to SST cooling at the equator, we suspect a similar cooling may occur in the Southern Hemisphere due to the presence of subsurface TIWs. Using one decade of high-resolution ICON ocean simulations, we investigate such effect of subsurface TIWs in the southern hemisphere on SST in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The analysis of all terms of the mixed layer heat budget allows for the investigation and quantification of the processes involved in subsurface TIW induced SST changes.

How to cite: Specht, M. S., Jungclaus, J., and Bader, J.: Influence of subsurface tropical instability waves on sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12325, 2022.

EGU22-12602 | Presentations | OS1.8

Multidecadal Modulations of Tropical Atlantic impact on ENSO 

Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Irene Polo Sanchez, Elsa Mohino Harris, Teresa Losada Doval, Marta Martin del Rey, Noel Keenlyside, and Carlos Roberto Mechoso

Observational studies have reported that tropical Atlantic interannual variability impacts
on ENSO in different seasons and periods: Atlantic Ni ̃nos (AN) in boreal summer during
negative phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV); and tropical north Atlantic
(TNA) in boreal spring during positive AMV. Nevertheless, this relation is not clear for the
whole observational record. This paper is an step forward towards understanding of tropical
Atlantic impacts on ENSO: how and when do they occur? Using observations and a pool of
preindustrial control simulations from the CMIP5 initiative we investigate the background
ocean and atmospheric conditions promoting these tropical interbasin connections.Periods
with a negative AN-ENSO connection appear characterized by a shallower thermocline
over the western Pacific and deeper in the east, together with an increase in interannual
SST variability over the tropics. Periods with a negative TNA-ENSO connection appear
characterized by a steeper thermocline in the Pacific and positive interhemispheric SST
gradient in the the Atlantic. A decrease in tropical Pacific atmospheric and ocean variability
characterizes these periods.

How to cite: Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., Polo Sanchez, I., Mohino Harris, E., Losada Doval, T., Martin del Rey, M., Keenlyside, N., and Mechoso, C. R.: Multidecadal Modulations of Tropical Atlantic impact on ENSO, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12602, 2022.

The Azores High shows a strong intra-seasonal variability that, transmitted to the whole North Atlantic by the Trade Wind, generates a multi-factor variability of the Canary Islands eastern edge upwelling system. In this work, we study the cold season (March to April), using satellite observations and numerical simulation, and how the variability of the wind at the equator, the Kelvin and coastal waves, and the local wind along the North-West African coast combine
to force upwelling variability. Composite analyses show how, in 80% of the cases, the pulsations of the anticyclone at 40 d excite equatorial waves that arrive in the Senegalese upwelling 15 d later, precisely at the time of the phase change of coastal wind anomalies.  These waves trapped at the coast, from upwelling or downwelling, reinforce the local wind anomaly. The intra-seasonal variability of the SST is thus the result of a double local and remote effect whose respective contributions we quantify 

How to cite: Sané, B., Lazar, A., Wade, M., and Gaye, A. T.: Pulsations of the Azores anticyclone at intra-seasonal scale: how oceanic waves and coastal wind anomalies combine constructively to force the variability of the north-eastern boundary upwelling system in winter-spring., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12733, 2022.

EGU22-13162 | Presentations | OS1.8

Variability Changes in the Tropical Atlantic in CMIP6 

Laura Sobral Verona, Paulo Silva, Ilana Wainer, and Myriam Khodri

Climate variability in the Tropical Atlantic is complex and significantly different than that in the Pacific. A strong ocean-atmosphere coupling is present, sea surface temperature (SST) variability in this region impacts the hydroclimate of the surrounding continents and influences the meridional displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).  We observe a decrease in the variability of the Tropical Atlantic after 1970 in both CMIP6 models and observations. Most of the Tropical Atlantic interannual variability is explained by equatorial and meridional modes. The Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM) characterizes an equatorial cold tongue. The Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) represents an interhemispheric SST anomaly gradient.  Both modes respond to positive ocean-atmosphere feedback: the Bjerkens Feedback controls most of the dynamics underlying the AZM; and a thermodynamic feedback amplifies the AMM, the WES (wind-evaporation-SST) feedback .

            The observed winds relaxation after 1970 in both the equatorial Atlantic region and in the Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) plays a role in the decrease of Tropical Atlantic variability, for each mode predominant season. With respect to the AZM, a widespread warming trend is observed in the equatorial Atlantic accompanied by a weakening trend of the trade winds. This drives a weakening in the Bjerkens Feedback by deepening the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and increasing the thermal damping. Even though individually the TNA and Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) show increased variability, the observed asymmetric warming in the Tropical Atlantic and relaxed northeast trade winds after the 70s play a role in decreasing the AMM variability. This configuration leads to positive WES feedback, increasing further the TNA SST, preventing AMM from changing phases as before 1970.

            Associated with SST, trade wind trends and decreased Tropical Atlantic variability, the African Sahel shows a positive precipitation trend. The southwest wind anomaly (trade wind relaxation) over the Tropical North Atlantic carries more humidity into the Sahel region, therefore increasing precipitation. As a consequence of the observed trends and decreased variability especially in the AMM, the ITCZ tends to shift northward, which acts on maintaining the increased precipitation over the Sahel.

How to cite: Sobral Verona, L., Silva, P., Wainer, I., and Khodri, M.: Variability Changes in the Tropical Atlantic in CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13162, 2022.

EGU22-13538 | Presentations | OS1.8

Surface salinity maximum in the western boundary of the Tropical Atlantic as observed from SMOS salinity maps 

Paola Castellanos, Estrella Olmedo, Edmo Campos, Wlademir Santis, and Joaquim Dias

The spatiotemporal evolutions of sea surface salinity measurements from the SMOS satellite reveal presence of a local salinity maximum in the northwestern tropical Atlantic beginning in September increasing with a Maximum in October and disappearing in January. Its structure and variability are analyzed through SMOS SSS daily products derived with advanced techniques developed at the Barcelona Expert Centre during 9 years. The results are compared with in situ data along the North Brazil Current (NBC) from the Prediction and Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic - PIRATA program. This seasonal tropical SSS maximum, produces the salty signature Northward of the NBC, which is seen as a localized salinity maximum on satellite imagery, in contrast to the fresh signature present in summer-early fall. These changes suggest a change in the composition of water masses that enter in the South Atlantic contributing to an alteration in the dynamics of global circulation.

How to cite: Castellanos, P., Olmedo, E., Campos, E., Santis, W., and Dias, J.: Surface salinity maximum in the western boundary of the Tropical Atlantic as observed from SMOS salinity maps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13538, 2022.

EGU22-13546 | Presentations | OS1.8 | Highlight

The Super Atlantic Niño of 2021 

Noel Keenlyside

In 2021 there was an exceptionally strong Atlantic Niño—stronger than the last major event in 1996. Positive SST anomalies developed in May and peaked in June-August. There was a build up of heat content in the spring in the western north Atlantic that could be related to local wind stress curl anomalies.  The event appears to have been triggered by zonal wind anomalies in April and May in the western equatorial Atlantic, when strong rainfall anomalies were also observed along the equator. The event terminated with rainfall anomalies shifting northward in late summer. Interestingly, there was also a strong Benguela Niño that developed already in April and has persisted into boreal summer. Furthermore, the event may have contributed to the La Niña event that developed later in the year in the Pacific.

How to cite: Keenlyside, N.: The Super Atlantic Niño of 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13546, 2022.

EGU22-109 | Presentations | OS1.9

Seasonal to intraseasonal variability of the upper ocean mixed layer in the Gulf of Oman 

Estel Font, Bastien Y. Queste, and Sebastiaan Swart

High-resolution underwater glider data collected in the Gulf of Oman (2015-16), combined with reanalysis datasets, describe the spatial and temporal variability of the mixed layer during winter and spring. We assess the effect of surface forcing and submesoscale processes on upper ocean buoyancy and their effects on mixed layer stratification. Episodic strong and dry wind events from the northwest (Shamals) drive rapid latent heat loss events which lead to intraseasonal deepening of the mixed layer. Comparatively, the prevailing southeasterly winds in the region are more humid, and do not lead to significant heat loss, thereby reducing intraseasonal upper ocean variability in stratification. We use this unique dataset to investigate the presence and strength of submesoscale flows, particularly in winter, during deep mixed layers. These submesoscale instabilities act mainly to restratify the upper ocean during winter through mixed layer eddies. The timing of the spring restratification differs by three weeks between 2015 and 2016 and matches the sign change of the net heat flux entering the ocean and the presence of restratifying submesoscale fluxes. These findings describe key high temporal and spatial resolution drivers of upper ocean variability, with downstream effects on phytoplankton bloom dynamics and ventilation of the oxygen minimum zone.

How to cite: Font, E., Y. Queste, B., and Swart, S.: Seasonal to intraseasonal variability of the upper ocean mixed layer in the Gulf of Oman, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-109, 2022.

EGU22-656 | Presentations | OS1.9

Pre-operational high-resolution ocean models of the Lakshadweep Sea (Indian Ocean) 

Mohammed Salim Poovadiyil, Jose M. Gonzalez Ondina, Jiada Tu, Muhammad Asif, and Georgy I. Shapiro

According to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the fisheries sector is a major contributor to coastal economy, ensuring nutritional security and generating employment opportunities is the central Indian Ocean covering Lakshadweep (India), Maldives and Sri Lanka. Harvesting of fish in this region happens mainly in coastal waters up to 100m depth. The fishing pressure on the stock in these waters has increased? Considerably and the deep-sea fishery has become an area for expansion in developed countries (FAO). However, fisheries in high seas pose scientific and technical challenges. High value fish are strongly influenced by the physical environment such as temperature, currents etc. Being able to predict this environment with high degree of accuracy is an invaluable tool for assisting on this expansion.

In order to help forecast the physical environment in the Lakshadweep Sea at medium to high resolutions we have developed two pre-operational data assimilating models at 1/20 (called LD20) and 1/60 (LD60) degrees of resolution based on with NEMO v3.6 as an engine. Both models have 50 geopotential computational levels with full steps in the vertical, they use Smagorinsky scheme for horizontal diffusion, bi-Laplacian viscosity for momentum, and k −epsilon turbulence scheme. The models use time-splitting algorithm with the ratio of baroclinic to barotropic time steps equal to 20. The Galperin parametrization is used to preserve the stratification. The models take initial and boundary conditions as well as data for assimilation from a global model at 1/12 degree resolution available from EU Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS). The bathymetry is taken from GEBCO_2021. Meteorological forcing comes from the Met Office global model (NWPn768 and NWPn1280), and the tides are forced using OTIS tidal scheme (https://www.tpxo.net/otis). Both models run within Rose/Cylc software environment (https://metomi.github.io/rose/2019.01.2/html/index.html), a toolkit for orchestrating the running models that automatically executes tasks according to their schedules and dependencies.

The LD20 and LD60 models use a novel model-to-model data assimilation scheme (Shapiro and Ondina, 2021) by which the observations are assimilated indirectly, via a data assimilating parent model (CMEMS for LD20 and LD20 for LD60). The models have been run for 5 years from 01.01.2015. As expected, the models reveal more granularity of temperature, salinity and currents, particularly in the coastal areas. The model skill was assessed against The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system. The results show improvement of the bias and Root-mean-square-error in the higher-resolution models compared to the lower-resolution ones. The model outputs can be helpful in the identification of small-scale ocean fronts which are linked to Potential Fishing Zones (Solanki et al, 2005)

References

Shapiro, GI. and Gonzalez-Ondina, JM., 2021. Model-to-model data assimilation method for fine resolution ocean modelling, Ocean Sci. Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-77, in review.

Solanki HU, Mankodi PC, Nayak SR, Somvanshi VS. 2005. Evaluation of remote-sensing-based potential fishing zones (PFZs) forecast methodology. Continental Shelf Research. 25, (18):2163–2173

How to cite: Poovadiyil, M. S., Ondina, J. M. G., Tu, J., Asif, M., and Shapiro, G. I.: Pre-operational high-resolution ocean models of the Lakshadweep Sea (Indian Ocean), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-656, 2022.

EGU22-1749 | Presentations | OS1.9

Towards long-term (2002-present) reconstruction of northern Indian Ocean Sea Surface Salinity based on AMSR-E and L-band Radiometer data 

Marie Montero, Nicolas Reul, Clément de Boyer Montégut, Jérôme Vialard, and Jean Tournadre

The Bay of Bengal is under the influence of the monsoon and has a highly contrasted and variable Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). In situ salinity data is however too sparse to reconstruct interannual SSS variability of the Bay of Bengal prior to synoptic SSS mapping of SMOS launched in 2009.

Previous studies have demonstrated the ability of X minus C-band measurements, such as those of AMSR-E (May 2002-Oct 2011), to track SSS changes in high-contrast regions and at high Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Here, we apply this approach to reconstruct the Bay of Bengal SSS before 2010. We remove the effects of other geophysical variables such as SST, surface wind, and atmospheric water content using an empirical approach. SSS is then retrieved based on another empirical fit, trained on the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SSS dataset, over the AMSR-E and CCI common period (Jan 2010 to Oct 2011). Our first results are encouraging: spatial contrast between the low post-monsoon SSS values close to estuaries and along the west coast of India are reproduced. Our algorithm, however, tends to overestimate low SSS and underestimate high SSS values, possibly due to data contamination near the coast and/or a suboptimal removal of the signals from other geophysical variables. Nevertheless, the first results show a correct representation of the recognizable Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena. Furthermore, we are currently creating and studying the use of a neuronal network with the intention to include more parameters in the algorithm.

The long-term goal of this work is to merge the C-, X-, and L-band data with in-situ measurements thus providing a long-term reconstruction of monthly SSS in the Bay of Bengal with a ~50 km resolution This dataset will be used to explore the physical processes that drive interannual SSS variability in regions where it is strong, such as near major river estuaries or along the west coast of India.

How to cite: Montero, M., Reul, N., de Boyer Montégut, C., Vialard, J., and Tournadre, J.: Towards long-term (2002-present) reconstruction of northern Indian Ocean Sea Surface Salinity based on AMSR-E and L-band Radiometer data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1749, 2022.

EGU22-2149 | Presentations | OS1.9

Contribution of the Winter Salinity Barrier Layer to Summer Ocean–Atmosphere Variability in the Bay of Bengal 

Shanshan Pang, Xidong Wang, Gregory R. Foltz, and Kaigui Fan

This study finds that the winter (December–February) barrier layer (BL) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) acts as a dynamical thermostat, modulating the subsequent summer BoB SST variability and potentially affecting the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset and associated rainfall variability. In the years when the prior winter BL is anomalously thick, anomalous sea surface cooling caused by intensified latent heat flux loss appears in the BoB starting in October and persists into the following year by positive cloud–SST feedback. During January–March, the vertical entrainment of warmer subsurface water induced by the anomalously thick BL acts to damp excessive cooling of the sea surface caused by atmospheric forcing and favors development of deep atmospheric convection over the BoB. During March–May, the thinner mixed layer linked to the anomalously thick BL allows more shortwave radiation to penetrate below the mixed layer. This tends to maintain existing cold SST anomalies, advancing the onset of ISM and enhancing June ISM precipitation through an increase in the land–sea tropospheric thermal contrast. We also find that most CMIP5 models fail to reproduce the observed relationship between June ISM rainfall and the prior winter BL thickness. This may be attributable to their difficulties in realistically simulating the winter BL in the BoB and ISM precipitation. The present results indicate that it is important to realistically capture the winter BL of the BoB in air–sea coupled models for improving the simulation and prediction of ISM.

How to cite: Pang, S., Wang, X., Foltz, G. R., and Fan, K.: Contribution of the Winter Salinity Barrier Layer to Summer Ocean–Atmosphere Variability in the Bay of Bengal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2149, 2022.

EGU22-2632 | Presentations | OS1.9

Multi-proxy study of the Leeuwin Current System evolution along the northwestern coast of Australia during the Middle Pleistocene Transition 

Anna Arrigoni, Gerald Auer, Benjamin Petrick, Briony Mamo, and Werner E. Piller

The Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT) represents a critical rearrangement in the Earth’s climate state, expressed as a switch from obliquity-dominated glacial/interglacial patterns towards the quasi-periodic 100 kyr cyclicity that characterized the Earth’s recent climatic history. This fundamental reorganization in the climatic response to orbital forcing occurred without comparable changes in the astronomical rhythms before or during the MPT. Although the MPT has been intensely studied, the triggering mechanisms still remain poorly understood.

High-resolution records from the equatorial to mid-latitude shelf areas are to date rarely considered. For this reason, we investigated an expanded MPT section from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 356 Site U1460A (eastern Indian Ocean, 27°22.4949′S, 112°55.4296′E, 214.5 mbsl). At Site U1460A, we combine high-resolution records of shallow marine productivity and organic matter flux (Auer et al., 2021) with new benthic and planktonic foraminifera records. By implementing this multi-proxy approach, we aim to better define the response of the Leeuwin Current System over the MPT on tropical shelf regions.

We will investigate benthic foraminifera assemblages at Site U1460A to reconstruct the bottom water community response to the Leeuwin Current System variations during the MPT. At the same time, the benthos/plankton (B/P) ratio of U1460A will be used to constrain the local impact of sea-level changes. Presently work is in progress to generate a B/P ratio for the MPT interval to better assess the impact of sea-level changes on a highly dynamic shelf setting on the western coast of Australia. Shallow coastal areas are markedly sensitive to the glacial/interglacial connected sea-level oscillations. Monitoring the variation in the B/P ratio can provide a preliminary overview of local sea-level changes along the Australian shelf which could be linked to the glacial/interglacial changes of the MPT. Higher values in this ratio indicate lowstand phases, while lower values are characteristic of higher sea level phases. The foraminifera data will be compared to a multi-proxy dataset (Auer et al., 2021) to constrain the local sea-level-driven environmental change over the MPT. Using this we will be able to untangle the impact of local versus global climatic change over the MPT.

Taxonomic identifications are underway following an extensive washing procedure developed for the sample material. Benthic foraminifera show moderate to good preservation, while the planktonic assemblage exhibits moderate to very good preservation. Foraminiferal tests appear white, opaque with apertures, and pores moderately covered by sediment. Some individuals are chipped or partially broken. Specimen preservation (plankton and benthos) decreases during glacial intervals where the abundance of planktonic foraminifera is low.

Finally, we recorded the presence of Globorotalia tosaensis at the top of our study interval at a depth of 61.72 mbsf (corresponding to sample U1460A-14F-3W, 20-24 cm). The continuous presence of this taxon indicates an age older than 0.61 Ma (Wade et al., 2011) at the top of our study interval, and therefore supports the age model of Auer et al. (2021).

How to cite: Arrigoni, A., Auer, G., Petrick, B., Mamo, B., and Piller, W. E.: Multi-proxy study of the Leeuwin Current System evolution along the northwestern coast of Australia during the Middle Pleistocene Transition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2632, 2022.

EGU22-3397 | Presentations | OS1.9

Indian Ocean influence on the ENSO-Indian monsoon teleconnection is mostly apparent 

Tamas Bodai, Aneesh Sundaresan, June-Yi Lee, and Sun-Seon Lee

“Decadal influence” on the El Nino--Southern Oscillation-Indian summer monsoon (ENSO-ISM) teleconnection have been much studied but with plurality and ambiguity about the concept of influence. We provide formal definitions of the apparent influence of a specific factor which enable us to test them as null-hypotheses. Using the recently released Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble (LE) data, we show that a 50% chance for the detection of the apparent Indian Ocean (IO) influence under stationary conditions might take 2000 years of data. However, we find that this influence is mostly apparent indeed, as it originates from fluctuations of the decadal apparent -- as opposed to climatological -- ENSO variability, which causally influences an IOD-like apparent mean state. We also show that no unattributed so-called “decadal influence”, reflected in a deviation from a linear regression model of the teleconnection as a null-hypothesis, can be detected in 20th c. observations even regionally.  Only the LE data is sizable enough to reveal this effect.

How to cite: Bodai, T., Sundaresan, A., Lee, J.-Y., and Lee, S.-S.: Indian Ocean influence on the ENSO-Indian monsoon teleconnection is mostly apparent, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3397, 2022.

Based on SODA reanalysis data set from 1980 to 2016, this paper combined with a variety of mathematical statistical methods to study the intraseasonal variability characteristics of barrier layer thickness and its physical correlation with climate modes in the Bay of Bengal, and quantitatively explored the dynamic mechanism of intraseasonal variability of barrier layer in different sea areas in the Bay of Bengal by means of Marine dynamic diagnosis method. The relative contributions of different physical processes, such as oceanic advection, Kelvin waves, Rossby waves and freshwater fluxes (rainfall and river runoff), to the barrier layer were evaluated. The physical relationship between the seasonal variation of barrier layer thickness and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is also discussed. The results show that the thickness of the barrier layer varies most obviously in the northern coast of the bay of Bengal and the western coast of Sumatra, and the maximum value of the barrier layer occurs in November ~ December every year, while the variation of the barrier layer in the northern coast is more regular than that in the southern coast. Horizontal advance and entrainment affect the thickness of barrier layer by affecting the salinity of the mixed layer. However, the thickness of barrier layer is mainly caused by the change of isothermal layer due to the obvious stratification of sea surface salinity in the Bay of Bengal. In the southern part of the Bay of Bengal near the equator, during the positive IOD events, the isothermal layer shallowness was caused by the negative anomaly of equatorial zonal wind stress from October to December. In negative IOD events, the equatorial zonal wind stress appears positive abnormality after June, which leads to the increase of isothermal layer in this period. As a result, the thickness of barrier layer In positive IOD years is smaller than that in normal years from October to December, and that in negative IOD years is greater than that in normal years from June to September. However, in the northern Bay of Bengal, the seasonal variability of barrier layer caused by different IOD events was not obvious. At the same time, the net heat flux upward at the air-sea interface will lead to instability and deepen the local mixed layer.

How to cite: Li, Y. and Wang, X.: Intraseasonal Variability in Barrier Layer Thickness in the Bay of Bengal and its Causes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3453, 2022.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) showed remarkable increases in duration and frequency during the satellite observing era, responding to rising sea surface temperature. Long-lasting MHWs were found in three upwelling regions of the TIO in 2015–2016 and 2019–2020, closely related to persistent downwelling oceanic planetary waves. In 2015, a prolonged MHW (149 days) in the western TIO was initiated by the downwelling Rossby waves associated with the co-occurring super El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. In the following year, the negative IOD sustained the longest MHW (372 days) in the southeastern TIO, prompted by the eastward-propagating equatorial Kelvin waves. In 2019–2020, the two longest MHWs recorded in the southwestern TIO (275 days in 2019 and 149 days in 2020) were maintained by the downwelling Rossby waves associated with the 2019 extreme IOD. This study revealed the importance of ocean dynamics in long-lasting MHWs in the TIO.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Du, Y., Feng, M., and Hu, S.: Long-Lasting Marine Heatwaves Instigated by Ocean Planetary Waves in the Tropical Indian Ocean During 2015–2016 and 2019–2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4358, 2022.

EGU22-4578 | Presentations | OS1.9

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the South Indian Ocean Sea Surface Salinity Maximum 

Frederick Bingham, Arnold Gordon, and Susannah Brodnitz

The sea surface salinity (SSS) maximum of the South Indian Ocean (the SISSS-max) is a large, oblong, high-salinity feature centered at 30degS, 90degE, at the center of the South Indian subtropical gyre. It is located poleward of a region of strong evaporation and weak precipitation. Using a number of different satellite and in situ datasets, we track changes in this feature since the beginning of the Argo era in the early 2000's. The centroid of the SISSS-max moves seasonally north and south, furthest north in late winter and farthest south in late summer. Interannually, the SISSS-max has moved on a northeast-southwest path about 1500 km in length. The size and maximum SSS of the feature vary in tandem with this motion. It gets larger (smaller) and saltier (fresher) as it moves to the northeast (southwest) closer to (further from) the area of strongest surface freshwater flux. The area of the SISSS-max almost doubles from its smallest to largest extent. It was maximum in area in 2006, decreased steadily until it reached a minimum in 2013, and then increased again. The seasonal variability of the SISSS-max is controlled by the changes that occur on its poleward, or southern, side, whereas intereannual variability is controlled by changes on its equatorward side. The variations in the SISSS-max are a complex dance between changes in evaporation, precipitation, wind forcing, gyre-scale ocean circulation and downward Ekman pumping. Its motion correlated with SSS changes throughout the South Indian Ocean and is a sensitive indicator of changes in the basin's subtropical circulation.

How to cite: Bingham, F., Gordon, A., and Brodnitz, S.: Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the South Indian Ocean Sea Surface Salinity Maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4578, 2022.

EGU22-4602 | Presentations | OS1.9

Precession-scale variability of upwelling in the Arabian Sea and its implications for proxies of Indian summer monsoon 

Chetankumar Jalihal, Jayaraman Srinivasan, and Arindam Chakraborty

Upwelling along the western boundary of the Arabian Sea and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall are positively correlated in modern observations. Upwelling transports nutrients into the euphotic zone and thus controls primary productivity. Therefore, primary productivity in the region of upwelling has been used to reconstruct monsoons of the distant past. Such reconstructions suggest that monsoons lag insolation by about 9 kyrs (nearly out-of-phase), contrary to several speleothem-based reconstructions that indicate a more in-phase relation of monsoon with insolation. Using results from transient as well as time-slice experiments, we have shown that factors other than the Indian monsoon affect upwelling on the precession time scales. These factors modulate the spatial extent of upwelling, resulting in the precession-scale variability in primary production. This is in contrast with modern observations, where most of the variations in primary productivity are a result of changes in the intensity of upwelling. We find that the spatial extent of upwelling is nearly out-of-phase with insolation. Thus, primary productivity lags insolation. We conclude that primary productivity in the Arabian Sea is not a good proxy for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.

How to cite: Jalihal, C., Srinivasan, J., and Chakraborty, A.: Precession-scale variability of upwelling in the Arabian Sea and its implications for proxies of Indian summer monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4602, 2022.

The tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) basin-wide warming occurred in 2020, following an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event instead of an El Niño event, which is the first record since the 1960s. The extreme 2019 IOD induced the oceanic downwelling Rossby waves and thermocline warming in the southwest TIO, leading to sea surface warming via thermocline-SST feedback during late 2019 to early 2020. The southwest TIO warming triggered equatorially antisymmetric SST, precipitation, and surface wind patterns from spring to early summer. Subsequently, the cross-equatorial “C-shaped” wind anomaly, with northeasterly–northwesterly wind anomaly north–south of the equator, led to basin-wide warming through wind-evaporation-SST feedback in summer.

The TIO warming excited a strong and westward extend anomalous anticyclone on the western North Pacific (WNPAC). The WNPAC is usually associated with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), except for the 2020 case. In 2020, the anomalous winds in the northwestern flank of the WNPAC bring excess water vapor into central China. The water vapor, mainly carried from the western tropical Pacific, converges in central China and result in heavy rainfall. Unlike extreme events in 1983, 1998, and 2016, the extreme rainfall in 2020 was the first and only event during 1979-2020 that followed an extreme positive IOD rather than a strong El Niño. A theory of regional ocean-atmosphere interaction can well explain the processes, called the Indo-Western Pacific Ocean Capacitor (IPOC) effect. This study reveals the importance of IOD in the IPOC effect, which can dramatically influence the East Asian climate even without involving the ENSO in the Pacific.

How to cite: Du, Y., Cai, Y., Chen, Z., and Zhang, Y.: Extreme IOD induced IOB warming and its impacts on western North Pacific anomalous anticyclonic circulation transport in early summer 2020: without significant El Nino influence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5055, 2022.

In this study, the possible associations between the precipitation in the Southeastern Africa (SEAF, in this study area between 10°S to 25°S and 25°E to 53°E,) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in seasons from October to March (DJFM) was investigated. A statistically significant three-month lag correlation between them was found. After removing the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole signals, AAO from August to October (ASO-AAO) and DJFM-precipitation was significantly correlated, and the interannual correlation coefficients calculated by CMAP, GPCP, CRU, and GPCC were +0.63, +0.42, +0.59, and +0.53 (p<0.05), respectively. The positive correlation suggests that an enhancing (weakening) ASO‐AAO could be conducive to increases (decreases) of DJFM-precipitation in SEAF in austral summer. Further analyze the corresponding water vapor and circulation conditions. The responses of local and regional meteorological conditions to the ASO‐AAO support the AAO-precipitation links. During positive ASO-AAO years, in the troposphere low level is a cyclonic flow field in the high level is an anticyclonic circulation, accompanied by an enhanced ascending motion, and such a structure is favor to rainfall. A preliminary mechanism analysis shows that a positive ASO-AAO may induce a sea surface temperature warming tendency in Western Equatorial Indian Ocean.  This warming then enhances the regional ascending motion in SEAF and enhances the convection precipitation on the northwest SEAF. Moreover, the anomalous sensible and latent heating, in turn, intensifies the cyclone through a Gill-type response of the atmosphere. Through this positive feedback, the tropical atmosphere and SST patterns sustain their strength from spring to summer and eventually the SEAF precipitation.Note that’s for simplicity, the AAO index was multiplied by −1 throughout this study.

How to cite: Du, C. and Gong, D.: Influence of Antarctic Oscillation on the Southeastern Africa summer precipitation during 1979-2018, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5207, 2022.

EGU22-6567 | Presentations | OS1.9

Predictability of the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic European circulation anomalies during early winter 

Muhammad Adnan Abid, Fred Kucharski, and Franco Molteni

In the current study, we analyzed the predictability of the tropical Indian Ocean precipitation anomalies and the North Atlantic European (NAE) circulation anomalies during the boreal early winter season using the ECMWF System-5 seasonal (SEAS5) prediction dataset. The observational analysis show that the boreal Autumn Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) conditions are the pre-courser for the early winter precipitation anomalies in the Tropical Western-Central Indian Ocean (TWCIO) region, which is well represented in the ECMWF-SEAS5 prediction system. Moreover, the ECMWF-SEAS5 skillfully predicts the Indian Ocean (IO) precipitation anomalies with some biases during the early winter. These biases tend to weaken the IO teleconnections to the NAE Region during the boreal early winter, mimicking the prediction skill of the NAE circulation anomalies. Furthermore, the positive TWCIO heating anomalies tend to favor the above normal Surface Air temperature (SAT) conditions over the NAE region, indicating to the mild early winter conditions over the region. The ECMWF-SEAS5 system shows a significant prediction skill of the surface temperature anomalies over the NAE region.

How to cite: Abid, M. A., Kucharski, F., and Molteni, F.: Predictability of the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic European circulation anomalies during early winter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6567, 2022.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has great impacts on the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). In fact, two major modes of the Indian Ocean SST namely the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes, exerting strong influences on the IO rim countries, are both influenced by the ENSO. Based on a combined linear regression method, this study quantifies the ENSO impacts on the IOB and IOD during ENSO concurrent, developing, and decaying stages. After removing the ENSO impacts, the spring peak of the IOB disappears along with significant decrease in number of events, while the number of events is only slightly reduced and the autumn peak remains for the IOD. By isolating the ENSO impacts during each stage, this study reveals that the leading impacts of ENSO contribute to the IOD development, while the delayed impacts facilitate the IOD phase switch and prompt the IOB development. Besides, the decadal variations of ENSO impacts are various during each stage and over different regions. These imply that merely removing the concurrent ENSO impacts would not be sufficient to investigate intrinsic climate variability of the Indian Ocean, and the present method may be useful to study climate variabilities independent of ENSO.

How to cite: Zhang, L. and Du, Y.: Revisiting ENSO impacts on the Indian Ocean SST based on a combined linear regression method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6704, 2022.

EGU22-6852 | Presentations | OS1.9 | Highlight

Local meridional circulation changes contribute to a projected slowdown of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation 

Sahil Sharma, Kyung Ja Ha, Wenju Cai, Eui-Seok Chung, and Tamás Bódai

The weakening of zonal atmospheric circulation, a widely accepted projection of climate change in response to global warming, features a weakening of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation (IWC), with an anomalous ascending motion over the western and anomalous descending motion over the eastern Indian Ocean.  The projected IWC weakening has previously been attributed to slower warming in the east than the west, that is, to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like warming pattern.  However, such a warming pattern can also be induced by IWC weakening. As a result, the cause-and-effect relationship cannot be easily determined, and the projected change is poorly constrained and highly uncertain. Here, using a suite of coupled climate model simulations under a high-emission scenario, we find that the IWC slowdown is accompanied by not only a positive IOD-like warming pattern but also anomalous meridional circulation that is associated with anomalous descending motion over the eastern Indian Ocean. We further show that the anomalous local meridional circulation is closely linked to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast and is unlikely to result from the positive IOD-like warming pattern, suggesting that the IWC weakening is in part driven by the anomalous local meridional circulation. Our findings underscore the important role of local meridional circulation changes in modulating future IWC changes. 

How to cite: Sharma, S., Ha, K. J., Cai, W., Chung, E.-S., and Bódai, T.: Local meridional circulation changes contribute to a projected slowdown of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6852, 2022.

EGU22-7416 | Presentations | OS1.9

Understanding and reducing seasonal prediction errors of the ECMWF system in the tropical Indian Ocean 

Michael Mayer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, and Stephanie Johnson

Accurate forecasts of tropical Indian Ocean variability are crucial for skilful predictions of climate anomalies on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Here we assess the ability of ECMWF’s operational monthly and seasonal prediction systems to represent variability in the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), an important center of action especially for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Mode. Strong air-sea coupling is present in this region. In ECMWF’s currently operational seasonal prediction system, this leads to rapid amplification of a weak cold bias of the oceanic initial conditions in the EEIO, resulting in too frequent occurrences of positive IOD events. Diagnostics show that this is related to winds in the EEIO exhibiting a biased relationship with local and remote sea surface temperatures when compared to reanalysis. The impact of the forecast bias in the EEIO on the skill of ENSO predictions via interbasin interactions is evaluated. We furthermore present results from numerical experiments with, i.a., changed atmospheric model physics and oceanic initial conditions which help to better understand causes of the diagnosed forecast errors as well as mechanisms of interbasin interaction, and provide guidance for model development.

How to cite: Mayer, M., Alonso Balmaseda, M., and Johnson, S.: Understanding and reducing seasonal prediction errors of the ECMWF system in the tropical Indian Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7416, 2022.

EGU22-9122 | Presentations | OS1.9

Role of Indian Ocean heating anomalies in the early winter ENSO teleconnection to the South Asian and North Atlantic regions 

Fred Kucharski, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Manish K. Joshi, Moetasim Ashfaq, and Katherine J. Evans

The role of the Indian Ocean heating anomalies in the ENSO teleconnection to South Asia and North Atlantic/European regions are investigated in the early winter season. Using re-analysis data, CMIP5 simulations and idealized numerical model experiments it is shown that the ENSO teleconnections in early winter in these regions are dominated by an ENSO-induced heating dipole in the Indian Ocean region. The Indian Ocean heating dipole leads to a Gill-type response in the South Asian region through Sverdrup balance. For a warm ENSO event, this response is a cyclonic upper-level anomaly that shifts the subtropical South Asian jet southward and increases precipitation in the that region. The cyclonic anomaly is the starting point of a stationary Rossby wavetrain that traverses the North Pacific and North American region and eventually reaches the North Atlantic. Here transient eddy feedbacks are likely to strengthen a response that spatially projects on the positive phase of the NAO and negative phase of the Atlantic ridge patterns. For cold ENSO events these anomalies are roughly opposite. The importance of the Indian Ocean heating dipole decreases towards late Winter due to a southward shift of the Indian Ocean rainfall climatology and a more dominant direct wavetrain from the central Pacific region.

How to cite: Kucharski, F., Abid, M. A., Joshi, M. K., Ashfaq, M., and Evans, K. J.: Role of Indian Ocean heating anomalies in the early winter ENSO teleconnection to the South Asian and North Atlantic regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9122, 2022.

In recent decades, worldwide marine heat wave events have become stronger and more frequent. Especially in the Indian Ocean, where occurs the most significant sea surface temperature warming trend. We use observation and reanalysis data to extract the Indian Ocean marine heatwave events since 1981. And then analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of marine heatwave events through feature indicators. According to the different period of the development of the marine heatwave, the sources of predictability from the atmospheric and ocean circulation anomaly are revealed. Then five representative heat wave events will be selected, and multi-member ensemble hindcast with different lead times will be conducted for each event with CESM2 model. Based on the hindcast results, we evaluate the prediction skills for the Indian Ocean marine heatwaves. The capability of models to simulate the sub-seasonal to seasonal signals that affect the heat wave event will be examined eventually.

How to cite: Yu, Y.: The subseasonal to seasoanl predictability of marine heatwave in Indian Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9751, 2022.

EGU22-10745 | Presentations | OS1.9

The effect of climate change on internal wave activity in the Andaman Sea 

Badarvada Yadidya and Ambarukhana Devendra Rao

The Andaman Sea, located in the Indian Ocean's northeastern region, is well known for its large-amplitude internal waves. The Indian Ocean Dipole, according to recent research, has a significant impact on the interannual variability of density stratification and internal wave activity in this region. The global climate model CanESM5 has demonstrated a reasonable ability to capture the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in its historical simulations. As a result, the long-term variability of internal waves is investigated using the CanESM5 density stratification. The stratification showed an increasing trend in the upper 100 m since 1900 due to radiative forcing. Internal wave activity is expected to increase in the twenty-first century, altering the effects of climate change on coastal ecosystems. Additionally, model simulations utilizing the three-dimensional Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model are conducted to investigate the impact of increasing stratification on internal tides. Variations in the generation, propagation, and dissipation of internal tides along with their basic characteristics are quantified.  

How to cite: Yadidya, B. and Devendra Rao, A.: The effect of climate change on internal wave activity in the Andaman Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10745, 2022.

EGU22-412 | Presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

Sensitivity of global surface moisture dynamics under changed land cover and land management 

Steven De Hertog, Carmen Elena Lopez Fabara, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Julia Pongratz, Iris Manola, Fei Luo, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Wim Thiery

Land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) have often been highlighted as crucial regarding climate change mitigation (e.g., enhanced carbon uptake on land through afforestation), but their potential for adaptation has also been suggested (e.g., local cooling through irrigation). Regarding the latter, the effects of LCLMC on the climate remain uncertain. LCLMC can have strong implications on surface moisture fluxes and have even been linked to changes in large scale atmospheric circulation. Here, we study the effects of three LCLMC (i) global afforestation, (ii) global cropland expansion and (iii) large-scale irrigation extension on climate by employing three fully coupled Earth System Models (CESM, MPI-ESM, and EC-EARTH). Sensitivity simulations were performed under present-day conditions and extreme LCLMC, of which the effects on moisture fluxes and atmospheric circulation are investigated. We do this by first analyzing the surface moisture fluxes using monthly precipitation and evaporation data to perform a moisture convergence analysis, before performing a moisture tracking analysis with the Water Accounting Model (WAM-2 layers) , this model solves the atmospheric moisture balance and requires sub-daily data from the sensitivity experiments as an input.

Here we focus on the results from CESM, cropland expansion has shown to cause an average shift southward of the Intertropical convergence zone as well as a weakening in westerlies strength and consequent decrease in moisture transport. This causes an increase in continental moisture sources over most of the Northern Hemisphere. Afforestation, in contrast, shows an average shift northward of the Intertropical convergence zone and enhanced westerlies and moisture transport. Lastly, irrigation expansion enhances the moisture convergence over areas where irrigation is applied, causing an increase in both precipitation and evapotranspiration.

How to cite: De Hertog, S., Lopez Fabara, C. E., Havermann, F., Guo, S., Pongratz, J., Manola, I., Luo, F., Coumou, D., Davin, E. L., Seneviratne, S. I., Lejeune, Q., Schleussner, C.-F., and Thiery, W.: Sensitivity of global surface moisture dynamics under changed land cover and land management, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-412, 2022.

EGU22-634 | Presentations | HS7.9

Mechanistic differences of leaf and ecosystem-scale water use efficiencies on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 

Xiang Wang, Guo Chen, Mingquan Wu, Xiaozhen Li, Qi Wu, Peng Wang, Hui Zeng, Rui Yang, and Xiaolu Tang

Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important indicator of carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, little is known about differences in water use efficiency at the leaf scale (WUELeaf) and ecosystem-scale (WUEECO) and response to environmental variables, particularly in plateau ecosystems with gradient effects. We obtained leaf carbon isotope data and calculated leaf-scale water use efficiency on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau through field surveys and literature collection and calculated ecosystem-scale water use efficiency based on remote sensing data (MODIS). The study analyzed the differences between leaf-scale WUE and ecosystem-scale WUE in terms of vegetation type and spatial distribution and explored the response of water use efficiency to changes in environmental factors at both scales. The results found that the two water use efficiency scales showed different vegetation type trends and spatial distribution. At the leaf scale, WUELeaf showed grasses (10.91 mmol/mol) > trees (9.55 mmol/mol) > shrubs (8.34 mmol/mol), and spatially as a whole showed higher in the western high altitudes (Grasses) than in the low eastern altitudes (Trees). In contrast, at the ecosystem scale, WUEEco shows trees (1.17 g C/kg H2O) > shrubs (1.05 g C/kg H2O) > grasses (0.53 g C/kg H2O), while at the spatial scale, the eastern low elevation region (Forests) is greater than the western high elevation region (Grasslands). Climate (MAT) and vegetation (EVI) factors are the most important environmental variables affecting the variation of WUE at leaf and ecosystem scales, respectively, on the Tibetan plateau. The effect of altitude on water use efficiency is not caused by the vegetation type, although the WUE varies among vegetation types. Conversely, the effect of elevation is influenced by the interaction between environmental conditions and vegetation. These results suggest that the appropriate water use efficiency scale should be selected for specific purposes in carbon and water cycle studies. When the focus is on the influence of climate on the carbon-water cycle, leaf-scale water use efficiency is more appropriate, while if the effect of vegetation, ecosystem-scale water use efficiency would be more appropriate.

How to cite: Wang, X., Chen, G., Wu, M., Li, X., Wu, Q., Wang, P., Zeng, H., Yang, R., and Tang, X.: Mechanistic differences of leaf and ecosystem-scale water use efficiencies on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-634, 2022.

EGU22-2709 | Presentations | HS7.9

OCELAND: A Conceptual Model to Explain the Partitioning of Precipitation between Land and Ocean 

Luca Schmidt and Cathy Hohenegger

The spatial distribution of precipitation is often misrepresented by General Circulation Models. In particular, precipitation tends to be underestimated over land and overestimated over ocean.

In this study, we investigate whether large-scale constraints on the partitioning of precipitation between land and ocean exist by using a conceptual box model based on water balance equations. With a small number of empirical but physically motivated parametrizations of the water balance components, we construct a set of coupled ordinary differential equations which describe the dynamical behavior of the water vapor content of land and ocean atmospheres as well as the soil moisture content of land. We compute the equilibrium solution of this system and analyze the sensitivity of the equilibrium state to model parameter choices.

Our results show that the precipitation ratio between land and ocean is primarily controlled by the land fraction, a scale-dependent atmospheric moisture transport parameter and the permanent wilting point of the soil. We demonstrate how the proposed model can be adapted for applications on both global and local scales, e.g. to model island precipitation enhancement. For a global scale model configuration with one ocean and one land domain, we show that the precipitation ratio is constrained to a range between zero and one and are able to explain this behavior based on the underlying equations and the fundamental property of land to lose water through runoff.

How to cite: Schmidt, L. and Hohenegger, C.: OCELAND: A Conceptual Model to Explain the Partitioning of Precipitation between Land and Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2709, 2022.

EGU22-3411 | Presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

Mapping ecological and human systems responses to land-atmosphere interactions altered by climate change 

Yannick Back, Peter Bach, Alrun Jasper-Tönnies, Wolfgang Rauch, and Manfred Kleidorfer

Land cover alteration due to anthropogenic activities modify land surface properties in absorbing, reflecting and emitting radiation as well as infiltrating, evaporating and storing water. This consequently modifies surface energy and water fluxes and, thus, climatic conditions. Progressive surface sealing results in higher runoff rates, less groundwater recharge, inhibited diurnal evaporative cooling and increased substrate heat storage, leading to augmented heat exchange by convection and, consequently, to an intensification of urban heat. We have identified a profound and robust relationship between the individual fluxes of the surface energy balance. From this, we derived an index including decisive aspects of land-atmosphere interactions and its feedbacks for assessment of the implication of surfaces to the climate system. The Surface Thermal Contribution Index (STCI) is intuitive to understand and can be calculated directly from Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), from climate models or using data from on-site measurements. We provide a comprehensive framework to measure ecological and human systems responses to changes in land-atmosphere interactions and resulting feedbacks under global warming as well as critical malfunctions related to environmental and human well-being. Here, we use the index to map the partitioning of surface energy and water fluxes and assess surface thermal contribution at global to intra-urban microscale. Our results show that increasing global land evapotranspiration from 1999 to 2020, visible through a higher proportion of latent heat fluxes, is primarily observable in forested and irrigated regions and dominant on the northern hemisphere. Regional aridity, visible through a higher proportion of sensible and substrate heat fluxes, in combination with the 2019 European heatwave inhibited diurnal intra-urban evaporative cooling indicating that current urban adaptation measures cannot cope with decreasing water availability. Results confirm the hypotheses that land evapotranspiration should increase in a warming climate accompanied by increasing land aridity, amplified by land-atmosphere feedbacks, and thus reaffirm an intensification of the global water cycle. Although increasing latent heat fluxes favour surface cooling, land-atmosphere feedbacks lead to a decrease in surface water availability with increasing evapotranspiration, due to an acceleration in the transfer of water into the atmosphere. Global warming intensifies the global water cycle and increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere as defined by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. This further decreases surface water availability. The combination of increasing temperatures, land aridity and frequency of extreme heat events deteriorates urban vegetation health, diminishes the evaporative cooling effect and eventually leads to degradation of urban ecosystems. We conclude that green infrastructure interventions to reduce urban heat will not cope with future consequences, by means of regional water scarcity, if not irrigated extensively, which in turn will increase the pressure on local water resources and global water challenges. We stress the importance of restoring natural surface energy and water balances for climate-sensitive development. With global cities projected to shift to warmer and drier conditions, increasing resilience requires more comprehensive urban water management that sustainably provides sufficient water availability to avoid fatalities of ecological and human systems and maintain the evapotranspiration-driven cooling effect for successful urban heat mitigation.

How to cite: Back, Y., Bach, P., Jasper-Tönnies, A., Rauch, W., and Kleidorfer, M.: Mapping ecological and human systems responses to land-atmosphere interactions altered by climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3411, 2022.

Storm-resolving simulations where deep convection can be explicitly resolved are performed in the idealized radiative-convective equilibrium framework to explore multiple equilibria in the vegetation-atmosphere system and the role of interactive leaf phenology. Firstly, by initializing the system with different initial soil moisture and leaf area index (LAI) conditions, we find three equilibrium states: a hot desert state without vegetation, an intermediate sparsely vegetated state, and a wet vegetated state. The existence of the three equilibrium states is subdued only to initial soil moisture conditions, not to initial LAI. The wet vegetated state is the most probable state among the multiple equilibria starting at different initial soil moisture and LAI. This indicates that a quite harsh environment, with soil moisture values very close to the permanent wilting point, is needed to kill leaves. It also implies that the vegetation-atmosphere system is more stable with interactive leaf phenology and can be interpreted as Amazon may be more resilient to the disturbances than we have thought. Secondly, interactive leaves allow an earlier transition between the intermediate to the wet vegetated state. These results imply that the vegetation-atmosphere system is more stable with interactive leaf phenology and can be interpreted as Amazon may be more resilient to the disturbances than we have thought. In our set-up, interactive leaves are only important for soil moisture larger than 54%, and their effect could be well approximated by prescribing the LAI to its maximum value. Finally, our sensitivity experiments reveal that leaves influence the climate equally through their controls on canopy conductance and vegetation cover, whereas albedo plays a negligible role.

How to cite: Lee, J., Hohenegger, C., Chlond, A., and Schnur, R.: Multiple equilibria of the vegetation-atmosphere system in radiative-convective equilibrium storm-resolving simulations with interactive leaf phenology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5263, 2022.

EGU22-5410 | Presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

Effects of land-use change in the Amazon on precipitation are likely underestimated 

Mara Baudena, Obbe A Tuinenburg, Pendula A Ferdinand, and Arie Staal

Land-use changes in the Amazon affect precipitation patterns, as the forest enhances precipitation levels regionally due to tree transpiration. However, it remains unclear to what extent such changes can influence precipitation. Recent studies used hydrological and atmospheric models to estimate the contribution of tree transpiration to precipitation but assumed that precipitation decreases proportionally to the transpired portion of atmospheric moisture. Here, we relaxed this assumption by, first, relating observed hourly precipitation levels to atmospheric column water vapor in a relatively flat study area encompassing a large part of the Amazon. We found that the effect of column water vapor on hourly precipitation was strongly nonlinear, showing a steep increase in precipitation above a column water vapor content of around 60 mm. Next, we used published atmospheric trajectories of moisture from tree transpiration across the whole Amazon to estimate the transpiration component in column water vapor in our study area. Finally, we estimated precipitation reductions for column water vapor levels without this transpired moisture, given the nonlinear relationship we found. Although loss of tree transpiration from the Amazon causes a 13% drop in column water vapor, we found that it could result in a 55%–70% decrease in precipitation annually. Consequences of this nonlinearity might be twofold: although the effects of deforestation may be underestimated, it also implies that forest restoration may be more effective for precipitation enhancement than previously assumed.

How to cite: Baudena, M., Tuinenburg, O. A., Ferdinand, P. A., and Staal, A.: Effects of land-use change in the Amazon on precipitation are likely underestimated, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5410, 2022.

EGU22-6246 | Presentations | HS7.9

Use of Isotopes in Examining Precipitation Patterns in North-Central Ukraine 

Elizabeth Avery, Olena Samonina, Lidiia Kryshtop, Iryna Vyshenska, Alan E. Fryar, and Andrea M. Erhardt

North-central Ukraine is vulnerable to temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes associated with climate change. With water management becoming increasingly important, information on current water sources and moisture recycling is critically needed. Isotope ratios of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) in precipitation are sensitive to these variables and allow comparisons across the region. For this study, precipitation was collected over a period of one year from Kyiv and Cherkasy and local meteoric water lines were created for both cities. The δ2H and δ18O values from collected precipitation and published 3H data for Kyiv from the year 2000 show an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and provide information about processes affecting precipitation along the storm trajectory. The δ18O values also show correlation with temperature, indicating that precipitation patterns may be affected by the rising temperatures in the region, as predicted by recent regional studies using Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and the global climate model GFDL-ESM2M. When compared to backtracked storm trajectory data, clear relationships emerged between water isotope ratios, storm paths, and likely moisture recycling. These results show that when isotopic data are used with backtracked storm trajectories and NAO cycles, a more complete idea of regional processes can be formed, including addition of water vapor from more localized sources. Overall, δ2H, δ18O, 3H, and backtracked storm trajectory data provide more regional and local information on water vapor processes, improving climate-change-driven precipitation forecasts in Ukraine.

How to cite: Avery, E., Samonina, O., Kryshtop, L., Vyshenska, I., Fryar, A. E., and Erhardt, A. M.: Use of Isotopes in Examining Precipitation Patterns in North-Central Ukraine, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6246, 2022.

Central Asia is a semiarid to arid region that is sensitive to hydrological changes. We use the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), equipped with a water-tagging capability, to investigate the major moisture sources for climatological precipitation and its long-term trends over central Asia. Europe, the North Atlantic Ocean, and local evaporation, which explain 33.2% ± 1.5%, 23.0% ± 2.5%, and 19.4% ± 2.2% of the precipitation, respectively, are identified as the most dominant moisture sources for northern central Asia (NCA). For precipitation over southern central Asia (SCA), Europe, the North Atlantic, and local evaporation contribute 25.4% ± 2.7%, 18.0% ± 1.7%, and 14.7% ± 1.9%, respectively. In addition, the contributions of South Asia (8.6% ± 1.7%) and the Indian Ocean (9.5% ± 2.0%) are also substantial for SCA. Modulated by the seasonal meridional shift in the subtropical westerly jet, moisture originating from the low and midlatitudes is important in winter, spring, and autumn, whereas northern Europe contributes more to summer precipitation. We also explain the observed drying trends over southeastern central Asia in spring and over NCA in summer during 1956–2005. The drying trend over southeastern central Asia in spring is mainly due to the decrease in local evaporation and weakened moisture fluxes from the Arabian Peninsula and Arabian Sea associated with the warming of the western Pacific Ocean. The drying trend over NCA in summer can be attributed to a decrease in local evaporation and reduced moisture from northern Europe that is due to the southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet.

How to cite: Jiang, J.: Tracking moisture sources of precipitation over Central Asia: A study based on the water-source-tagging method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6735, 2022.

EGU22-6751 | Presentations | HS7.9

Observational constraints on the uncertainties of the future precipitation change projections 

Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Hyungjun Kim, and Nagio Hirota

Future projections of global mean precipitation change (ΔP) based on Earth system models have larger uncertainties than those of global mean temperature changes (ΔT). While many observational constraints on ΔT have been proposed, constraints on ΔP have not been well studied and are often complicated by the large influence of aerosols on precipitation. By analyzing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 ensembles, we show that the upper bound (95th percentile) of ΔP (2051-2100 minus 1851-1900, % of the 1980-2014 mean) can be lowered from 6.2% to 5.2-5.7% (min-max range of sensitivity analyses) under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario. ΔP for 2051-2100 is well correlated with the global mean temperature trends during recent decades after 1980 when global anthropogenic aerosol emissions were nearly constant. ΔP is also significantly correlated with the recent past trends of precipitation when we exclude some tropical land areas with few rain gauge observations. Based on these significant correlations and observed trends, the variance of ΔP can be reduced by 8-30%. The observationally constrained ranges of ΔP should provide further reliable information for impact assessments.

How to cite: Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Kim, H., and Hirota, N.: Observational constraints on the uncertainties of the future precipitation change projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6751, 2022.

EGU22-7400 | Presentations | HS7.9

Land use options for Viticulture in Portugal in light of bioclimatic shifts 

Cristina Andrade, André Fonseca, and João A. Santos

Climate and land are closely intertwined through multiple interface processes. On one hand, land endows means for agriculture practices and agroforestry systems thus contributing to the food and materials supply; on the other, climate change may lead to significant impacts in land use and efficient water availability and management. Therefore, the study of these interactions and the impact of the bioclimatic shifts, since land use, plays a relevant role in the climatic system is highly relevant.

Towards this aim, in this study, 1‒km observational gridded datasets are used to assess changes in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems in mainland Portugal. As such, two past periods were analyzed: 1950–1979 and 1990–2019. A compound bioclimatic-shift exposure index (BSEI) is defined to identify the most exposed regions to recent climatic changes. The temporal evolution of land cover with vineyards between 1990 and 2018, as well as correlations with areas with bioclimatic shifts, are then analyzed.

Results show significant climatic changes between the two periods with an increase of 18.1% in the Warm Mediterranean with hot summer (CSa) climate in Portugal. This increase was followed by a 17.8% decrease in the Warm Mediterranean with warm summer (CSb) climate. Furthermore, the WBCS Temperate areas also reveal a decrease of 5.11%. Arid and semi-arid ombrotypes areas increased, whilst humid to sub-humid ombrotypes decreased. Thermotypic horizons depict a shift towards warmer classes. BSEI highlights the most significant shifts in northwestern Portugal.

Overall results show that vineyards have been displaced towards regions that are either the coolest/humid, in the northwest, or the warmest/driest, in the south. Since vineyards in southern Portugal are commonly irrigated, options for the intensification of these crops in this region may threaten the already scarce water resources and challenge the future sustainability of this sector. As similar problems can be found in other regions with Mediterranean-type climates, the main findings of this study can be easily extrapolated to other wine producer countries worldwide.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020.

Keywords: Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification, Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS), Vineyards, Portugal.

How to cite: Andrade, C., Fonseca, A., and A. Santos, J.: Land use options for Viticulture in Portugal in light of bioclimatic shifts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7400, 2022.

Mediterranean climates experience important climatic variability often causing droughts, whose consequences are especially worrisome in highly human-altered basins such as the Ebro Basin. An accurate understanding of the governing interactions of the water cycle is crucial in this area, which is a basin representative of water-related issues of the Mediterranean area. The HUMID project (CGL2017-85687-R) studies how remote sensing data and models (Quintana-Seguí et al., 2019; Barella-Ortiz and Quintana-Seguí, 2019) can improve our understanding of the alterations of rainfall-evapotranspiration-soil moisture interactions, which is essential to characterize the water cycle in drought-prone regions. Climates in these areas are driven by radiative factors while controlled by water-related ones, but the dominance of certain feedbacks such as the one of evapotranspiration-rainfall can locally modify the water balance and interactions.

Within the complex climatic mosaic of the Ebro basin, there are areas with interesting high levels of local water recycling due to storm tracks of relevance at Iberian and even European scale. However, other areas of the basin barely show any moisture recycling. Since recycling suggests enhanced interaction between evapotranspiration and rainfall, this study explores the differences in the magnitude of rainfall anomalies with evapotranspiration and soil moisture anomalies between areas with low and high recycling. The comparison of the dominance of evapotranspiration-rainfall interaction over the other interactions of the water cycle is evaluated over areas of storm tracks compared to those barely affected by recycling. The comparison is conducted over three climatic types of the Köppen-Geiger classification: BSk, Cfa and Cfb in order to distinguish the relevance of recycling, mostly of local scale, in comparison to the climatic type, influential at the synoptic scale.

High-resolution remote sensing products such as SMOS 1km and MODIS16 A2 ET enable evaluating rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture anomalies with a level of detail suitable for local-scale analysis. Standardized drought indices such as soil moisture deficit index (SMDI) or the evapotranspiration deficit index (ETDI) can be calculated based on SMOS 1km data (2010-2019) and MODIS16 A2 ET 500m. The SPI index is used for rainfall anomalies. To assess the impact of recycling on the rainfall-evapotranspiration and soil moisture interactions we compare the distribution and magnitude of lags between these three variable-specific drought indices at the contrasting regions. The method allows identifying differences in the distribution of lags between the SPI, ETDI and SMDI that differ depending on the vicinity to the storm track. The type of climate shows certain interaction with the effects of local recycling.

The study illustrates the worth of high-resolution remote sensing data to evaluate recycling mechanisms and the anomalies of the land-atmosphere system propagating drought across feedbacks, even at the local scale. This advantage facilitates a better understanding of the climatic variability in semi-arid Mediterranean climates while encouraging developing monitoring tools integrating the particularities of water-limited types of climate.

How to cite: Gaona, J. and Quintana-Seguí, P.: Local recycling alters the balance of interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the semi-arid Ebro basin., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7782, 2022.

EGU22-9371 | Presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

Investigating impacts of large-scale vegetation restoration on water recycling processes in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northern China 

Xuejin Wang, Baoqing Zhang, Zhenyu Zhang, Harald Kunstmann, and Chansheng He

From 1998 until now, the Chinese government has implemented numerous policies and programs, such as the Grain for Green Program, the Three-North Shelter Forest Program, and the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Control Program, to restore ecosystems and to improve environmental protection in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northern China (APENC). However, it remains unclear how the large-scale vegetation restoration modulates the regional moisture cycle in the APENC. To fill this gap, we investigated the variations of observed precipitation and estimated evapotranspiration from 1995 to 2015. The evapotranspiration is estimated by the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory model with dynamic vegetation (DV). The precipitation recycling ratio calculated by the Dynamic Recycling Model is used to analyze the impacts of vegetation restoration on regional moisture recycling. Our results show that the precipitation and ET under the DV were significantly increased during the period of 1995-2015, with the increasing rate of 4.42 mm yr-1 and 2.13 mm yr-1, respectively. The precipitation recycling ratio was also significantly increased during the study period, showing positive feedback of vegetation restoration on precipitation. The atmospheric water budget analysis shows that vegetation restoration noticeably modifies the annual mean values of water transport terms in the regional water cycle, indicating an indirect effect on local precipitation. Our findings help better understand the impacts of land cover change on local water resources, which in turn supports local water resource management and decision making.

How to cite: Wang, X., Zhang, B., Zhang, Z., Kunstmann, H., and He, C.: Investigating impacts of large-scale vegetation restoration on water recycling processes in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northern China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9371, 2022.

EGU22-10113 | Presentations | HS7.9

Ground Water Effects on Soil Moisture and Regional Climate using WRF-NoahMP Model Over Ganga Basin, India 

Vinayak Huggannavar and Indu Jayaluxmi

Soil moisture plays a crucial role in partitioning surface fluxes. Several studies in past have highlighted the role of soil moisture in Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interactions. Understanding such interactions through regional climate models helps improve the simulation of global and regional hydrological processes. On the contrary, shallow subsurface groundwater also affects soil moisture variations. This calls for an accurate representation of physical processes involved in soil moisture interactions with groundwater. In addition, Shallow groundwater is known to act as a source and sink to the overlying soil layer during dry and wet seasons respectively. In this study, we analyze the impact of two different groundwater models in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-MP land surface model over the Ganga basin, India. Two experiments were carried out, one with the default-free drainage approach (CTL) and another with Miguez-Macho groundwater model (GW). The period of study was between 2008-2014. Preliminary analysis revealed that GW simulations improved soil moisture for the top and bottom-most soil layers. Reduction in temporal dry bias by around 91mm was observed for precipitation during the monsoon season. Dry bias in latent heat flux over the region also improved by 28 W/m2. GW run improved soil moisture and precipitation representation compared to CTL run. In summary, our results advocate the need for a better representation of groundwater within coupled regional climate models for improved simulation of hydrological processes

How to cite: Huggannavar, V. and Jayaluxmi, I.: Ground Water Effects on Soil Moisture and Regional Climate using WRF-NoahMP Model Over Ganga Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10113, 2022.

EGU22-12711 | Presentations | HS7.9 | Highlight

Vegetation fueled summer 2021 floods in Germany and Belgium 

Damián Insua Costa, Martín Senande Rivera, Gonzalo Miguez Macho, and María del Carmen Llasat Botija

Plants play a key role in the hydrological cycle, yet their contribution to extreme rainfall remains uncertain. Here we show that more than half of the vast amounts of water accumulated in the recent Germany and Belgium floods were supplied by vegetation (41% from transpiration, 11% from interception loss). We found that intercontinental transport of moisture from North American forests (which contributed more than 463 billion liters of water to the event) was a more important source than evaporation over nearby seas, such as the Mediterranean or the North Sea. Our results demonstrate that summer rainfall extremes in Europe may be strongly dependent on plant behavior and suggest that significant alterations in vegetation cover, even of remote regions, could have a direct effect on these potentially catastrophic events.

How to cite: Insua Costa, D., Senande Rivera, M., Miguez Macho, G., and Llasat Botija, M. C.: Vegetation fueled summer 2021 floods in Germany and Belgium, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12711, 2022.

EGU22-12789 | Presentations | HS7.9

The impact of different land use change scenarios on precipitation in a semiarid Mediterranean area in Southeastern Spain 

Hassane Moutahir, Pau Beneto, Joel Arnault, Zhenyu Zhang, Patrick Laux, Samira Khodayar, and Harald Kunstmann

Land use changes are the major anthropogenic alterations which are considered to have an important impact on the climate system. In semiarid regions such as the the Southeastern Spain where water is the major limiting factor for ecosystems functioning and human development, knowledge about future water availability is of high importance above all in the context of climate change. To better understand the potential impact of land use change on the regional climate, we used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the impact of different land use scenarios on precipitation in the Jucar Basin in Southeastern Spain. We conducted three different scenarios: (1) increasing the tree cover areas, (2) removing the tree cover and increasing the shrubland areas, and (3) increasing the urban areas in the coastal areas. Preliminary results show that increasing the tree cover areas will likely increase the annual precipitation (approximately +3%) in the region, and mostly affecting the autumn period (+8%) with respect to the actual land use scenario. Removing the tree cover and increasing the urban areas resulted in reduced precipitation above all during the spring season (-3%).

How to cite: Moutahir, H., Beneto, P., Arnault, J., Zhang, Z., Laux, P., Khodayar, S., and Kunstmann, H.: The impact of different land use change scenarios on precipitation in a semiarid Mediterranean area in Southeastern Spain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12789, 2022.

EGU22-444 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Identification of combined influence of climatic variables on indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes 

Athira Krishnankutty Nair and Sarmistha Singh

Spatio-temporal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is responsible for extreme events like floods and droughts across India. In recent decades, the incidence of extreme precipitation events during ISMR is increased significantly, which are primarily linked to climatic variables like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this study, extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) like consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), and 95th percentile (R95p) have been considered to explain the characteristics of ISMR extremes. Moreover, a regional analysis has been carried out using the multiple wavelet coherence method to determine the coupled association of climatic oscillations with EPIs. Here, two-, three-, and four- climatic variable combinations have been applied to identify the best combination which explains the fluctuations of ISMR extremes all over India. Results indicate that two or more climatic oscillations could be sufficient particularly, AMO-ENSO-EQUINOO and AMO-ENSO-PDO are the best combinations to explain the variability of ISMR extremes across India. Apart from this analysis, wavelet decomposition and reconstruction analysis have also been performed to understand the scale-specific variability of the spatial-extreme precipitation. More than half of India had a significant correlation between reconstructed modes of ISMR extremes and climatic oscillations at interdecadal and multidecadal scales (8-16 and 16-32 -years), despite their interannual periodicities. This indicates that the non-stationary behaviour of the ISMR extremes was strongly associated with climatic variables at higher scales. 

How to cite: Krishnankutty Nair, A. and Singh, S.: Identification of combined influence of climatic variables on indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-444, 2022.

EGU22-551 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Multi-scalar association between large-scale climatic pattern and droughts in India 

Sidhan Valiya Veetil and Sarmistha Singh

Extreme meteorological events, such as droughts, are strongly influenced by large-scale climatic oscillations. Since India is one of the most drought-prone countries, comprehensive knowledge of the teleconnection of the climatic oscillations is very helpful towards developing precise drought prediction models. For evaluating the association between climatic indices and drought indices, the interdependency among the climatic oscillation time series has not been addressed well in previous studies. Hence in this study, an elaborate analysis is done in a time-frequency space using the variants of wavelet analysis such as Wavelet Coherence Analysis (WCA), Multiple Wavelet Coherence Analysis (MWCA), and wavelet reconstruction method. The study has used Five major climatic oscillations namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), and a PET-based drought index, called Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at four time-scales. The results from the analysis show that the interannual variability (2-4 years) of Indian droughts are primarily influenced by ENSO while the drought variability at 4–8-year time scale is influenced by the combined effect of PDO and EQUINOO. Similarly, the interdecadal variability (16-32 years) of Indian drought is dominantly influenced by PDO and IOD. AMO has not shown any significant association at any scale. Moreover, the droughts in Northwest and North Central India are strongly influenced by climatic oscillations. Further, the teleconnection pattern doesn’t significantly vary with the different timescale of drought. The study will help the hydrologists to enhance the understanding of the connection between climatic oscillations and Indian droughts and thereby better prepare for the impending droughts.

How to cite: Valiya Veetil, S. and Singh, S.: Multi-scalar association between large-scale climatic pattern and droughts in India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-551, 2022.

EGU22-589 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND HYDROLOGICAL VARIABILITY IN THE N'ZI WATERSHED (Central-North Côte d'Ivoire) 

marc auriol amalaman, Gil Mahe, Armand Zamble Tra Bi, Beh Ibrahim Diomande, Nathalie Rouche, Zeineddine Nouaceur, and Benoit Laignel

Summary: The decline in rainfall experienced by the West African band in the decades 70 and 80 strongly affected the flow in the various sub-catchments. In order to better identify the different modes of variability, this work is dedicated to studying the relationship between the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean and changes in flow in the N'zi watershed. Continuous wavelet analysis was used for signal search signal in the Fêtêkro (1960-1997) and N'zianouan (1960-2010) hydrometric series. As for the consistency in wavelet, it made it possible to verify the link between the flow and Atlantic Ocean temperature indices (North Atlantic Temperature: TNA and South Atlantic Temperature: TSA). Continuous wavelet analysis shows a fairly marked variability overall in high frequencies (6 months to 1 year) and interannual (> 1 year). Thus, at the Fêtêkro station north of the basin, the annual scale (1 year) records half of the variability ready with an estimated signal at 46.09%.  For the N'zianouan station, 37.18% explains the variability of the signal. At this stage, the Fêtêkro station has a rather pronounced variability to the detriment of that of N'zianouan. At the level of low frequency variability, the N'zianouan station has a fairly pronounced variability from 1 to 7 years.  Periodicity (1 – 2; 2 – 4 years) marks the highest signal (19.78%). The station of Fêtêkro shows a signal in the decade 60 estimated at 9.46% at 2-year frequency. As for wavelet consistency, it indicates a strong influence of the TSA.  index. In Fêtêkro, a consistency in phase is perceptible from 2 years in the decades 60 and 70.  At the frequency (4-8 years), this logic is observed over the entire time series. At the station of N'zianouan, we observe this reality in the decades 60 and 80 at periodicity (2-6 years), and (7-9 years) from 1990. Therefore, the results of the coherence show that the TSA index strongly impacts the flow in the N'zi watershed.

Keywords: TSA, TNA, frequency, variability, N'zi watershed

 

How to cite: amalaman, M. A., Mahe, G., Tra Bi, A. Z., Diomande, B. I., Rouche, N., Nouaceur, Z., and Laignel, B.: STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND HYDROLOGICAL VARIABILITY IN THE N'ZI WATERSHED (Central-North Côte d'Ivoire), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-589, 2022.

EGU22-601 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Recent and future trends of river runoff in the North-West Russia 

Elena Grek and Liubov Kurochkina

The research is devoted to the identification of the patterns in spatio-temporal variability of river runoff characteristics in the North-West Russia. Based on long-term observation series, trends in the runoff characteristics were calculated as well as the patterns of their spatial variability were analyzed.

Within the framework of the work, the river runoff characteristics for 3 long-term periods were analyzed: the previous (before 1966), modern (1966-2019) and future periods (2022-2099).

The results of our study showed increase amount of cases with maximum runoff rainfall flood being higher than spring runoff from the end of 1980s.Estimates on expected changes in the hydrological regime under the implementation of RCP 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios are presented. The most significant changes were detected in winter runoff and maximum spring and rainfall runoff. It is shown that an increase in winter runoff should be expected for the study area, as well as a decrease in the maximum water discharge of the spring flood. At the same time, according to scenarios 6.0 and 8.5, by the end of the century, the maximum annual discharge is likely to be observed during the period of rainfall floods.

How to cite: Grek, E. and Kurochkina, L.: Recent and future trends of river runoff in the North-West Russia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-601, 2022.

In 2018 a mass death of fish occurred in the storage basin Lohsa I which is located in the Upper Lusatia, Germany. Lohsa I is a former lignite mining pit, which is now mainly used for industrial water supply, flood defence and fishing. It was assumed that an inflow of anaerobic groundwater could have been the cause for this event as groundwater inflow was observed before. Additionally, the input of fresh water from the river Kleine Spree was missing in summer 2018. In the project RoBiMo (robot assisted inland water monitoring) at the TU Bergakademie Freiberg there is a focus on collecting and analysing water quality data and climate data with the aim to quantify groundwater - surface water interactions and identify the influence of climate change in Saxony.

With an annual mean temperature of 12.4°C the year 2018 was +1.3°C warmer than the former period from 2010 to 2017. Total precipitation in 2018 was 398 mm, only 61% of the average precipitation of the period between 2010 and 2017 (648 mm). These data were used to quantify the amount of groundwater inflow to the storage basin Lohsa I and the effect of climate change.

For 2018 a positive value of groundwater flow was determined which implies an inflow of groundwater. A calculation from 1996 to 2019 shows an overall net inflow of groundwater. The calculation figures out a strong coherence between the groundwater flow, precipitation and sea water level. Until 2018 groundwater inflow and outflow were balanced but since then it became more deficient. The model BOWAHALD was used to determine evapotranspiration and storage change. The linear trend of precipitation is decreasing whereas the trend for evapotranspiration is increasing. As a result, the storage basin Lohsa I experiences a net loss of water.

Based on the results from storage basin Lohsa I the water budget for Upper Lusatia is calculated. Less precipitation, heavy rainfall events and decreasing groundwater levels are predicted for this area. The Lusatian lakes with 23 post mining lakes and a water surface area of more than 14,000 hectares will be heavily affected by climate change. For 2018 a loss of water to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration of 1.18 x 108 m³ was calculated. It can be assumed that such warm and dry years as 2018 will occur more frequently in the future.

How to cite: Jarosch, L. and Scheytt, T.: Influence of climate conditions and lake characteristics on the former lignite mining pit Lohsa I, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2724, 2022.

EGU22-2859 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Sensitivity of groundwater level in the Seine River basin to changes in interannual to decadal climate variability 

Lisa Baulon, Manuel Fossa, Nicolas Massei, Nicolas Flipo, Nicolas Gallois, Matthieu Fournier, Bastien Dieppois, Julien Boé, Luminita Danaila, Delphine Allier, and Hélène Bessiere

Groundwater level (GWL) variations can be expressed over a wide range of timescales. As aquifers act as low-pass filters, low-frequency variability (interannual to decadal variability) originating from large-scale climate variability represents a significant part of GWL variance. Anthropogenically-driven climate change may affect, and have maybe already affected, the internal climate variability which explains the low-frequency variability of hydrological processes. Such changes in internal climate variability could therefore affect GWL variations. How GWL, including extremes, may respond to such changes and variations in climate variability however remains an open question.

 

To tackle this issue, we implemented an empirical numerical approach allowing to assess the sensitivity of aquifers to changes in large-scale climate variability, using the whole Seine hydrosystem (76000 km2) as a case study. The approach consisted in: i) identifying and modifying the spectral content of precipitation, originating from large-scale climate variability, using signal processing; ii) injecting perturbed precipitation fields as input in a physically-based hydrological/hydrogeological model (the CaWaQS software) for the Seine river basin for simulating perturbed GWL; iii) comparing the spectral content, trend and extremes of perturbed GWL with the reference GWL. We used the Safran precipitation field over the period 1970-2018, which was initially used for model calibration and validation. GWL data for the Seine basin is a subset of a database of climate-sensitive time series (i.e. low anthropogenic influence) recently set up at the BRGM and University of Rouen Normandy. First, the Safran reanalysis and observed GWL time series were analyzed using continuous wavelet transform to identify the different timescales of variability: interannual (2-4yr and 5-8yr) and decadal (~15yr). Then, the different timescale of precipitation time series were extracted using maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform. For each time series of the precipitation field, the amplitude of each timescale was modified individually, by either increasing or decreasing it by 50%. This led to six scenarios of perturbed low-frequency variability of precipitation, which are subsequently used as input in the CaWaQS model to assess the response of GWL variability and extremes.

 

Preliminary results indicate that perturbations of the amplitude of interannual to decadal precipitation variability result in substantial changes in the variability of GWL, affecting the same timescales, as well as timescales that were not modified in the precipitation field. Implications of these findings on potential trends and the frequency of extremes of GWL is currently being explored.

How to cite: Baulon, L., Fossa, M., Massei, N., Flipo, N., Gallois, N., Fournier, M., Dieppois, B., Boé, J., Danaila, L., Allier, D., and Bessiere, H.: Sensitivity of groundwater level in the Seine River basin to changes in interannual to decadal climate variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2859, 2022.

EGU22-4389 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Links between drought and atmospheric circulation types during 1950-2019 

Zuzana Bešťáková, Jan Kyselý, and Ondřej Lhotka

The study deals with links between drought and atmospheric circulation in different parts of Europe (Western Europe, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, and Southern Europe) during 1950–2019. The links are evaluated using drought characteristics (based on a difference between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation) calculated from gridded EOBS data and atmospheric circulation types that were classified using daily sea level pressure patterns obtained from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. Circulation types supporting drought in warm half-year are identified, and we analyse changes in their occurrence in the period after 1950, seasonal changes, and the connection with drought trends in individual European regions.

How to cite: Bešťáková, Z., Kyselý, J., and Lhotka, O.: Links between drought and atmospheric circulation types during 1950-2019, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4389, 2022.

The ability to predict the frequency and magnitude of flooding at lead times of 1 to 10 years is of great interest to governments and institutions responsible for flood risk management. However, at these lead times there is significant uncertainty about dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation. The current generation of models underestimate the predictable signal of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the principal mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation, leading to low confidence in predictions of regional precipitation and flooding. Recent work has shown that by post-processing a sufficiently large model ensemble, decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate can become highly predictable (Smith et al., 2020). Here, we investigate whether this NAO-matching technique can be used to improve the skill of flood forecasts at decadal lead times in the United Kingdom. We use a large ensemble of decadal hindcasts consisting of 169 members drawn from CMIP phases 5 and 6, and observed flood records for the period 1960-2015. Following Smith et al. (2020), we adjust the variance of the raw ensemble mean NAO to match that of the observed predictable signal, then select the ensemble members showing the lowest absolute difference with the variance-adjusted ensemble mean. Working only with the selected members (n=20), we supply the ensemble mean precipitation and temperature to a distributional regression model to predict the occurrence and magnitude of winter floods at lead times of 1 to 10 years. We compare these predictions with those from an equivalent model which uses predictors drawn from the full ensemble (n=169) to assess the improvement in predictive skill. Our preliminary results suggest that NAO-matching shows promise at improving decadal flood predictions in northern Europe.

Reference

Smith, D.M., Scaife, A.A., Eade, R. et al. North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature 583, 796–800 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0.

How to cite: Moulds, S., Slater, L., and Dunstone, N.: Improving decadal flood prediction in northern Europe by selecting ensemble members based on North Atlantic Oscillation skill, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6158, 2022.

EGU22-7165 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Evaluating hydrologic change for a set of European catchments by performance-based weighting of an ensemble of hydrologic and climate models 

Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Robrecht Visser, Peter Greve, Berny Bisselink, Lukas Brunner, and Albrecht Weerts

Hydrologic variability is expected to change throughout Europe due to climate change. However, ensemble projections of future changes in discharge show large variation because of the uncertainty in climate projections. The robustness of the change signal can potentially be improved by performance-based weighting. Here we analyze future change projections from an ensemble of three hydrological models (CWatM, LISFLOOD and wflow_sbm) forced with climate datasets from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). The experiment focusses on nine river basins spread over Europe. The basins have different climate and catchment characteristics that strongly influence the hydrological response. We evaluate the ensemble consistency, the geographical variation therein and apply two weighting approaches; (1) the Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP) that focuses on meteorological variables and (2) the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) that is here applied to catchment specific discharge statistics.

In Southern and Northern-Europe the ensemble consistency is high. There is a strong climate change signal. In Central Europe the differences between models are more pronounced. Analysis of the weighting method reveal that both weighting methods favor projections from similar GCMs and assign high weights to a single or few best performing GCMs.

How to cite: Sperna Weiland, F., Visser, R., Greve, P., Bisselink, B., Brunner, L., and Weerts, A.: Evaluating hydrologic change for a set of European catchments by performance-based weighting of an ensemble of hydrologic and climate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7165, 2022.

EGU22-7748 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Climate change impacts on river flow in England: a comparison of the UKCP18 and euro-CORDEX regional climate projections 

Cordula I. Wittekind, Matthew B. Charlton, Michael Strauch, Felix Witing, and Megan J. Klaar

In England, the priority catchment project focuses on developing innovative solutions to ensuring a clean and plentiful supply of water and environmental protection. Understanding the impacts of climate change on streamflow and water availability will ensure resilient management solutions into the future. The latest 12-member dynamically downscaled perturbed parameter ensemble of regional climate model projections (PPE-RCM) is part of the country specific UK Climate Projections UKCP18. In this study it was applied to estimate future changes in streamflow in an application of a new, revised version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) to two contrasting priority catchments in England. Both catchments are influenced by high rates of freshwater withdrawals but differ in their natural hydrological regimes and geographies. One is a wet coastal catchment with steep slopes while the other is a dry lowland catchment. Modelled impacts on natural monthly flows and flow duration statistics until the 2080s under the 12 member PPE were compared to those from 18 members of the euro-CORDEX initiative. Both ensembles are available for emissions pathway RCP8.5. To cover a broad range of scenarios, we also modelled the impact of the lower emissions (RCP4.5 & RCP2.6) euro-CORDEX projections.

SWAT+ performs well in simulating natural flows during the validation period in both catchments. The PPE estimates are consistently drier than euro-CORDEX. It projects streamflow in the coastal catchment to increase in seasonality with higher winter and lower summer flows, while streamflow in the dry lowland catchment is projected to decrease across all months apart from February. In the dry lowland catchment, the euro-CORDEX under RCP8.5 predict the strongest decreases in streamflow for June at -13%, while the PPE projects beyond -20% decrease throughout June to September. The climate change signal in the coastal catchment is less clear. The PPE projects winter streamflow to increase by between 5% to 36% while the euro-CORDEX under RCP8.5 predict increases between 13% to 23%, summer streamflow is projected to decrease by -16% to -23% and -0.5% to -4% respectively. RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 represent a mixed result with rarely beyond 10% change and more months with increasing trends than under RCP8.5. The different emissions pathways largely agree on increasing high flows and decreasing low flows in the coastal catchment. For the lowland catchment both ensembles driven by RCP8.5 project decreases across the whole flow duration curve while RCP 2.6 and 4.5 project medium to high flows to increase and low flows at Q70 and Q95 to largely stay the same.

This study suggests the need to adapt environmental protection and water withdrawals to decreasing water availability across the whole year in the lowland catchment and to pronounced changes in streamflow timing in the coastal catchment. To understand a broader range of climate impacts the UKCP18 PPE-RCMs should be used with other projections. However, they represent high-end warming scenarios translating into strong hydrological response, in particular streamflow decreases, that other ensembles might not capture, providing further insights into the challenges that water management may face.

How to cite: Wittekind, C. I., Charlton, M. B., Strauch, M., Witing, F., and Klaar, M. J.: Climate change impacts on river flow in England: a comparison of the UKCP18 and euro-CORDEX regional climate projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7748, 2022.

EGU22-7816 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

How could uncertainty in future ENSO diversity influence assessments of seasonal precipitation anomalies over the 21st century? 

Bastien Dieppois, Nicola Maher, Antonietta Capotondi, and John O'Brien

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical climate variability, with impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, and hydropower production spanning much of the globe. Most impact studies use a canonical representation of ENSO, as characterised by sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the central-eastern Pacific. However, ENSO shows large differences from one event to another in terms of its intensity, spatial pattern and temporal evolution. For instance, while the 1997/98 El Niño displayed extreme SSTa in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the largest SSTa during the 2002/03 event were weaker and primarily confined to the central equatorial Pacific. These differences in the longitudinal location and intensity of ENSO events, referred to as “ENSO diversity”, are associated with different regional climate impacts throughout the world. The representation of such differences in ENSO spatial patterns in climate models thus strongly influence the skill of impact prediction systems. Here, we exploit the power of single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) from 14 fully-coupled climate models from both CMIP5 and CMIP6 (totalling over 500 simulations in historical and SSP-RCP scenarios) to examine the system trajectories, and identify future variations in the location and intensity of El Niño and La Niña events. We then quantify how contrasting pathways for ENSO event location, and their associated intensity, could alter seasonal precipitation anomalies throughout the world over the 21st century.

How to cite: Dieppois, B., Maher, N., Capotondi, A., and O'Brien, J.: How could uncertainty in future ENSO diversity influence assessments of seasonal precipitation anomalies over the 21st century?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7816, 2022.

EGU22-8209 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Decadal to multidecadal variability in long- and short-lived hydrological extremes in sub-Saharan Africa 

Job Ekolu, Bastien Dieppois, Jonathan Eden, Yves Tramblay, Gabriele Villarini, Gil Mahe, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, and Marco van de Wiel

Sub-Saharan Africa is affected by a high-level of temporal and spatial climate variability, with large impacts on water resources, human lives and economies, notably through hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts. Using a newly reconstructed 65-year daily streamflow dataset of over 600 stations distributed throughout sub-Saharan Africa, we first highlight that the frequency, intensity and duration of hydrological extremes are strongly impacted by decadal to multi-decadal variations. However, the key factors driving such decadal to multi-decadal variability remain poorly documented and understood. To address this research gap, we first compile information on local-scale (precipitation, temperature, soil moisture) and large-scale (e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability) drivers. Then, by using relative importance analysis and multiple datasets, we investigate the contribution of large-scale versus regional-scale processes in driving decadal to multi-decadal variability in floods and droughts. Results show that the changes in flood and drought characteristics are significantly linked to modes of climate variability in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. Although flood and drought characteristics are significantly correlated, the influences of large-scale climate variability on them are non-linear. Meanwhile, local-scale factors impacting floods and droughts are variable throughout the sub-continent. Our results highlight the role that changes in rainfall, soil moisture and temperature play across the major watersheds in sub-Saharan Africa.

How to cite: Ekolu, J., Dieppois, B., Eden, J., Tramblay, Y., Villarini, G., Mahe, G., Paturel, J.-E., and van de Wiel, M.: Decadal to multidecadal variability in long- and short-lived hydrological extremes in sub-Saharan Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8209, 2022.

EGU22-9305 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Identifying and quantifying the impact of climatic and non-climatic effects on river discharge 

Julie Collignan, Jan Polcher, Sophie Bastin, and Pere Quintana Seguí

In a context of global change, the stakes surrounding water availability and use are getting higher. River discharge has significantly changed over the past century. Human activities, such as irrigation and land cover changes, and climate change have had impact on the water cycle. This raises the question of how to separate the impact of climate change from the impact of anthropogenic activities to better understand their role in the historical records.

We propose a methodology to semi-empirically separate the effect of climate from the impact of the changing catchment characteristics on river discharge. It is based on the Budyko framework and long land surface simulation. The Budyko parameter is estimated for each basin and represents its hydrological characteristics. Precipitations and potential evapotranspiration are derived from the forcing dataset GSWP3 (Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3) – from 1901 to 2010 –. The ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model is used to estimate the terrestrial water and energy balance for the past climate but assuming humans do not modify land surface processes. This is a first guess of evaporation and its evolution due to climatic factors. Not having reliable observations of the evolution of the actual evaporation, river discharge and atmospheric observations are used to reconstruct it. This provides estimates of the evolution of the catchment characteristic and the evaporation efficiency which can then be compared to the modelled natural system. The aim is to separate anthropogenic changes from the effect of climatic forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of our methodology we applyied modifications to the atmospheric forcing to see how specific climate variations impact the sensitivity of the Budyko detection.

Our results show that for most basins tested over Spain, there is an increasing trend in the Budyko parameter representing increasing evaporation efficiency of the watershed over the past century which can not be explained by the climate forcing. This trend is consistent with changes in irrigation equipment and development of dams over the studied period. However when looking at decadal trends, climatic fluctuations take precedence over non-climatic trends. In a context of climate changes, the balance between these trends could change in the future. The methodology was extended to other areas in Europe. The clear non-climatic trends were especially significant in semi-arid climate.

How to cite: Collignan, J., Polcher, J., Bastin, S., and Quintana Seguí, P.: Identifying and quantifying the impact of climatic and non-climatic effects on river discharge, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9305, 2022.

EGU22-9659 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Drought and Multi-scale Linkages of Seasonal Drought to Climate Indices: A Case Study in the Huaihe River Basin, China 

Xin Li, Guohua Fang, Zhenyu Zhang, Joël Arnault, Xin Wen, and Harald Kunstmann

In the context of the current ocean-atmosphere cycle anomaly, exploring the potential teleconnections between climate indices and regional drought can help us know the variability of natural hazards more comprehensively to cope with them. This study explores the spatiotemporal patterns of drought and its multi-scale relations with typical climate indices in the Huaihe River Basin, China. The spatiotemporal variabilities of meteorological drought are identified using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). The Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Coherence (WTC) analysis are used for investigating the multi-scale linkages between seasonal drought and climate indices, including Arctic Oscillation (AO), Bivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Timeseries (BEST), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Niño3, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and sunspot number. Seasonal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-3 during 1956-2020 are investigated separately for winter and spring seasons. We found that NAO mainly affects the interdecadal variation in spring drought, while AO and Niño3 focus on the interannual variation. In addition, Niño3 and SOI are more related to the winter drought on interdecadal scales. Our results prove that the onset, process, and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events influence the dryness and wetness conditions in the Huaihe River Basin. The results are beneficial for improving the accuracy of drought prediction, considering taking NAO, AO, and Niño3 as predictors for spring drought and Niño3 and SOI for winter drought.

How to cite: Li, X., Fang, G., Zhang, Z., Arnault, J., Wen, X., and Kunstmann, H.: Spatiotemporal Patterns of Drought and Multi-scale Linkages of Seasonal Drought to Climate Indices: A Case Study in the Huaihe River Basin, China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9659, 2022.

The water budget of a certain area for a certain time interval is one of the quantitative characteristics of the hydrological cycle, which reflects the objectively existing in nature relations between the inflow, losing, and change of humidity reserves.

The paper presents the results of calculating the components of the water budget of the Udy River Basin (the Siverskyi Donets River Basin) based on the available observation materials, and also describes their long-term dynamics. Total evaporation was calculated from the temperature and absolute humidity by the Konstantinov method. For the study, four meteorological stations data, which zones of influence belong to the studied basin, and the hydrological gauge the Udy River - Bezlyudivka data were used. In order to identify changes that have already occurred with the water body, it was compared the hydrometeorological characteristics of the present period (1991-2020) with the period of climatological normal (1961-1990).

Since meteorological stations observations characterize discrete values ​​of meteorological indicators at individual points, and hydrological gauges observations show integrated values ​​of water runoff related to the upper basin situated, meteorological data were reduced to their average values ​​in the river basin. For this purpose, the weighing method was used - the basin is graphically divided by the system of Thiessen triangles into zones of influence of a separate meteorological station within the studied basin. The amount of precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity were determined using the calculated weights coefficient.

The study of the water budget of the Udy River Basin revealed an increase in air temperature within the basin and the associated increase in the value of total evaporation, a decrease in spring flood runoff, and an increase in total runoff of the low-water period. It is determined that the annual runoff in the present period has decreased by 17%. The total amount of precipitation for the two study periods is characterized by the same amount, but there was a change in their distribution during the year. The amount of precipitation decreased in the period of spring flood at the present period compared to the period of climatological normal and increased in the low-water period.

How to cite: Bolbot, H. and Grebin, V.: The structure of the water budget of the Udy River (Ukraine) under the influence of present climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11365, 2022.

Solar activity and internal climate modes (e.g., ENSO and PDO) have significant effects on extreme climate events and streamflow variability. As the roof of the world and the water tower of Asia, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the relationship between extreme hydrometeorological events of the QTP and climate change for global hydroclimate research. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation and significant oscillation period of several hydrometeorological variables such as extreme precipitation indices (EPIs), extreme temperature indices (ETIs) and annual runoff based on the observation data of hydrometeorological stations in the QTP during 1962–2019 using Sen’s slope estimator, Mann-Kendall test and continuous wavelet analysis (CWT). And the teleconnection patterns and the leading–lag relationship between solar activity, internal climate modes and these hydrometeorological variables were evaluated using wavelet coherence (WTC). The result showed that QTP has been wetter and warmer in the past 58 years. The EPIs mostly mutated around 2010, and the increase was more pronounced after that; while the ETIs mainly mutated in the late 20th century. In terms of spatial distribution, the EPIs (except consecutive dry days) decreased from southeast to northwest; while distribution of ETIs was much more complicated. The extreme warm and cold indices showed a significant increasing and decreasing trend, respectively. The annual runoff of natural rivers in the QTP showed an increasing trend, and suddenly changed around 2000. EPIs had significant periodicities at 2–4-year band and 4–7-year band, while the significant periodicity of ETIs was mainly concentrated in the 2–4-year band. In addition, the annual runoff of natural rivers had significant periodicities in the bands of 2-4 years, 4-7 years and 7-11 years. Hydrometeorological variables had higher correlations with EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) than with sunspot number (SSN). Solar activity first affects internal climate variability and then sequentially transfers this influence to meteorological and hydrological variables. This study has important implications for water resources management, flood control, climate feedback, ecosystem restoration, and the well-being of surrounding residents and sustainable development at the QTP.

Keywords: climate change; extreme climate events; runoff; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; spatiotemporal variability; wavelet analysis

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Zhang, L., Liu, Y., and Jin, M.: Combined influence of solar activity and internal climate modes on long-term hydro-climatic variability in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12411, 2022.

EGU22-12763 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Current changes in seasonal rainfall and the impact of the NAO in Serbia 

Hristo Popov and Jelena Svetozarevich

Climate fluctuations are highly dependent on changes in atmospheric circulation. The physical properties of air masses and their geographical distribution are of great importance because they determine the weather over large areas.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most significant mode of natural climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. It has a major impact on weather and climate in the North Atlantic and mainland Europe. There are two phases of NAO, positive and negative. When it is positive in Europe, warmer and wetter weather prevails. When it is negative, the weather in Europe is colder with more rainfall.

The Republic of Serbia is located in Southeastern Europe, in the western part of the Balkan Peninsula, the northern part of the country is located in the Middle Danube Lowland, the Sava Valley and the Tisza Valley. In the middle part are the river valleys of Drina, Kolubara and Morava. In the southern part of the country are occupied by mountains up to 2000 m high.

The aim of the article is to study the current changes in seasonal precipitation in the Republic of Serbia. For this purpose, data from 15 climate stations were evenly distributed over the territory and the influence of the NAO during the winter months. Three of the stations are mountainous - located over 1000m. The rest are alpine with lower altitude. The data is for seasonal values 1990-2019 were obtained from NIMH Serbia.

In structure of the research introduction presents the topic, tasks and bibliography. The Data and Methods section shows the geographical and climatic features of the study area and explains the methods. The next section provides results on seasonal changes and the impact of NAO. The conclusion shows the main results we have reached.

Key words:  NAO, climate change, seasonal precipitation, Republic of Serbia

How to cite: Popov, H. and Svetozarevich, J.: Current changes in seasonal rainfall and the impact of the NAO in Serbia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12763, 2022.

EGU22-12767 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Why is the atmosphere becoming drier? - An investigation of the role of dynamical drivers on recent trends in relative humidity 

Kirsten Maria Florentine Weber, Julie Jones, Kate M Willett, Colin Osborne, and Robert Bryant

Relative humidity (RH) over land has declined steeply since 2000. The drying signal is relatively consistent from the edge of the deep tropics to the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, whereas regions equatorward and poleward show increasing RH trends. The drying trend observed in the gridded global humidity dataset, HadISDH, could not be captured by the CMIP5 climate models [1, 2].

The drying trend finds partial explanation through thermodynamic drivers. Global warming causes an increase in both latent and sensible heat in the atmosphere. Over land, the increase in latent heat is much lower than that of sensible heat. Due to slower warming rates over the ocean compared to land, not sufficient humidity is evaporated and transported towards the coast to keep RH over land constant [3].

Temperature and moisture in many regions are influenced by the atmospheric circulation, therefore can influence RH. In this study, we investigate the potential influence of atmospheric circulation on the observed regional RH changes. We have done this for selected regions with a strong RH trend (including the western US, eastern Brazil, Greenland's coastal areas, southern Africa, the Caspian Sea, Mongolia and Tibet). We firstly calculate correlation and regression coefficients between gridded and regional RH and a range of dynamical drivers (including the Northern and Southern Annular Modes, ENSO and the PDO). We also explored the relationship between regional RH and global fields of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and wind from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. We find a significant relationship between RH and the dynamical drivers in many regions (for example with the ENSO in eastern Brazil), as well as the impact of small-scale atmospheric circulations on land cover change, which then impacts RH (for example evaporation over the Caspian Sea). We will present these results, and try to quantify the contribution of these drivers to recent trends.

[1] Willet et al. (2014), HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring

[2] Dunn et al. (2017), Comparison of land surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models

[3] Sherwood and Fu (2014), A Drier Future?

How to cite: Weber, K. M. F., Jones, J., Willett, K. M., Osborne, C., and Bryant, R.: Why is the atmosphere becoming drier? - An investigation of the role of dynamical drivers on recent trends in relative humidity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12767, 2022.

EGU22-13310 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

What can hydrologic signatures teach us about a multiyear drought? 

Margarita Saft, Murray Peel, Keirnan Fowler, and Tim Peterson

The internal dynamics of a catchment can be shifted by multiyear dry periods. While there is consensus that annual streamflow decreases for a given annual rainfall in the case of multiyear dry period significantly more than during isolated dry years (thus representing a shift in hydrologic response), the mechanism of this shift remains debated. As the hydrological shifts were investigated on an annual and, to a lesser extent, seasonal scale, little is known regarding what parts of the flow regime (e.g. high flows, low flows, recessions) are affected and how. An event-scale analysis using process-linked hydrologic metrics (or signatures) can reveal hidden patterns in catchment response to multiyear drought and shed light on the otherwise hidden hydrological processes. Additionally, understanding whether some parts of flow variability experienced a more pronounced impact from the drought may be important for the water management decision-making. Here we investigate long-term changes in catchment response on daily to sub-monthly timescales to aid both hydrological processes understanding and water management practice.

We calculate over 30 hydrologic signatures characterising different aspects of flow regime and hydrological processes before, during, and after a decade-long drought and compare the results.  The signatures are calculated with the Toolbox for Streamflow Signatures in Hydrology (TOSSH) which combines signature sets from several earlier studies. We use a well-known multiyear drought, the Millennium Drought (MD) in Australia as our case study. This drought spanned ~13 years (1997-2009) and affected over 1 million square kilometres of land including 156 semi-natural study catchments in Victoria.

Our results suggest that on average both high and low flows were affected in similar proportion while the shape (i.e. slope) of the flow duration curve was largely preserved. The tendency to generate less runoff for a given rainfall has been demonstrated in a range of signatures from event to total flow volumes and thus is independent of the timescale. When analysing signatures related to catchment storage, we observe that the decline continues post-drought. Baseflow index and recession signatures show some evidence of multiyear catchment storage buffering. There is also evidence of lower hydrologic connectivity in the hillslopes affecting the event runoff. However, there are marked differences in signature behaviour between different catchments reflecting the differences in catchment internal structure and dominant hydrologic processes.

How to cite: Saft, M., Peel, M., Fowler, K., and Peterson, T.: What can hydrologic signatures teach us about a multiyear drought?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13310, 2022.

EGU22-13363 | Presentations | HS2.4.1

Exploring links between precipitation extremes and land use types through the UK Convection-Permitting Model 

Kwok Pan Chun, Pingyu Fan, Qing He, Bastien Dieppois, Luminita Danaila, Nevil Quinn, Julian Klaus, Emir Toker, and Omer Yetemen

Precipitation extremes are commonly linked with land use types. The UKCP18 Convection-Permitting Model (CPM) Projections at 5km high resolution simulation provide opportunities to investigate probable relationships between precipitation extremes and land use types. Changes in the duration and severity of extreme precipitation events can be linked to landscape characteristics, which affect the risk of rapid and local hydrological hazards.

Based on publicly accessible data and a standard approach, Local Climate Zones (LCZs) provide coherent descriptions of the form and function of urban landscapes. From the World Urban Database and Access Portal, the LCZ is used to translate relevant land attributes to urban canopy parameters for climate and weather modelling applications at appropriate scales. Using the Severn River Basin as a case study, we use LCZ data to calculate urban fractions to investigate the roles of urban land types to the extreme distribution parameters.

In conjunction with the LCZ data, the Corine Land Cover (CLC) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets are used to benchmark how future changes in rainfall intensities and seasonal patterns might be related to land use. The results are used to generate possible hypotheses to run different CPM models based on the LCZ data.

Based on these findings, we present a novel land-use-based approach for water hazard management addressing hydrological risk connected to regional climate resilience. For management authorities and infrastructure owners, precipitation extreme risk related to land use is critical for their long-term investment planning. The proposed methodology would be advantageous to many UK water regulators and stakeholders in generating more informative precipitation extreme estimations based on land use, for the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5.

How to cite: Chun, K. P., Fan, P., He, Q., Dieppois, B., Danaila, L., Quinn, N., Klaus, J., Toker, E., and Yetemen, O.: Exploring links between precipitation extremes and land use types through the UK Convection-Permitting Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13363, 2022.

EGU22-878 | Presentations | AS1.16

What flow conditions are conducive to banner cloud formation at Mt. Matterhorn? 

Marius Levin Thomas, Volkmar Wirth, and Zbigniew Piotrowski

Banner clouds are clouds that appear to be attached on the leeward side of a steep mountain or ridge on otherwise cloud-free days. The current work considers fundamental questions associated with the formation of this type of clouds using large-eddy simulations. Previous work was based on an idalized model configuration with  pyramid-shaped orography; there, it was shown that the shear of the oncoming flow plays a key role for the geometry of the lee-side vortex and, hence, for the shape of the banner cloud. 

In the current work, the scope is extended from an idealized pyramid to the realistic orography of Mt Matterhorn. The simulations show that the wind shear of the oncoming flow is less essential than before, because the underlying rough orography creates "its own" flow profile by the time the flow reaches the windward side of the mountain. By contrast, the wind speed turns out to be quite relevant, because large windspeed is associated with strong turbulence, turbulence reduces stratification, and reduced stratification helps to form the lee vortex. However, at the same time, the flow field for realistic Matterhorn orography makes it much harder to identify a coherent lee vortex to be associated with the banner cloud. 

How to cite: Thomas, M. L., Wirth, V., and Piotrowski, Z.: What flow conditions are conducive to banner cloud formation at Mt. Matterhorn?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-878, 2022.

EGU22-1193 | Presentations | AS1.16

A new K-ε  turbulence parameterization  for mesoscale meteorological models 

Andrea Zonato, Alberto Martilli, Pedro A. Jimenez, Jimy Dudhia, Dino Zardi, and Lorenzo Giovannini

A new one-dimensional 1.5-order planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, based on the K-ε turbulence closure applied to the Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, is developed and implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme includes an analytic solution of the coupled equations of the turbulent kinetic energy and of the dissipation rate. Different versions of the PBL scheme are proposed, with increasing levels of complexity, including a model for the calculation of the Prandtl number, a correction to the dissipation rate equation, and a prognostic equation for the temperature variance. Five different idealized cases are investigated: four of them explore convective conditions, and they differ in initial thermal stratification and terrain complexity, while one simulates the very stable boundary layer case known as GABLS. For each case study, an ensemble of different Large Eddy Simulations (LES), has been taken as reference for the comparison with the novel PBL schemes and other state-of-the-art 1- and 1.5-order turbulence closures. Results show that the new PBL K-ε  scheme brings improvements in all the cases tested in this study. Specifically, the largest enhancements are brought by the turbulence closure including a prognostic equation for the temperature variance. Moreover, the largest benefits are obtained for the idealized cases simulating a typical thermal circulation within a two-dimensional valley. This suggests that the use of prognostic equations for the dissipation rate and temperature variance, which take into account their transport and history, is particularly important with increasing complexity of PBL dynamics.

How to cite: Zonato, A., Martilli, A., Jimenez, P. A., Dudhia, J., Zardi, D., and Giovannini, L.: A new K-ε  turbulence parameterization  for mesoscale meteorological models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1193, 2022.

EGU22-1202 | Presentations | AS1.16

Sensitivity of numerical simulations in an idealized valley to surface parameters 

Dario Di Santo, Andrea Zonato, and Lorenzo Giovannini

Land surface models (LSMs), i.e. parameterization schemes for evaluating surface-atmosphere exchange implemented in meteorological models, usually prove inadequate over complex terrain,where orography strongly influences atmospheric processes and their interaction with the surface. In particular, LSMs use several parameters to suitably describe the surface and its interaction with the atmosphere, whose determination is often affected by many uncertainties. To this date, the sensitivity of meteorological model results to these parameters has not yet been studied systematically in complex terrain.The purpose of this work, which lies in the context of the TEAMx-related project ASTER, funded by the EGTC European Region Tyrol-South Tyrol-Trentino, is to evaluate the sensitivity of simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model to variation of parameters describing land cover. Specifically, an idealized three-dimensional topography consisting of a valley-plain system is adopted and the analysis of the results focuses on the development of thermally-driven circulations. The analysis considers both the sensitivity to the type of vegetation cover and to the systematic variation of surface parameters based on typical values found in the literature. In particular, this analysis is carried out using the Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) methodology in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the variation of each parameter evaluated and to estimate the optimal computational effort required for this type of study. The outcome of this analysis allows to evaluate which are the parameters that most influence model results and therefore should be estimated with particular attention in order to obtain reliable simulations over complex terrain.

How to cite: Di Santo, D., Zonato, A., and Giovannini, L.: Sensitivity of numerical simulations in an idealized valley to surface parameters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1202, 2022.

The tendency to form a sea of clouds (SOC) with surface meteorological conditions was observed for 3-year warm periods at the foot of Mt. Yatsugatake by time-lapse camera and meteorological instruments at Fujimi Panorama ski resort, Nagano prefecture. In situ observation revealed large- and small-scale SOCs in the valley. Large-scale SOCs were commonly observed in the early morning, while small-scale SOCs in the eastern valley corresponded with low-level orographic clouds ascending over the slopes of Yatsugatake. An empirical algorithm was developed to detect the occurrence of nocturnal low-level clouds, corresponding to large-scale morning SOCs, using Hiamari-8 images on hourly basis with references to in situ camera observation. SOCs frequently occurred in the large-scale valley or basin in the inland areas in the Japanese Alps region, referred as 12 target areas, and they were infrequent in the coastal areas or high elevations over 2000 m. When we defined days of wide-ranging SOC occurrence, in which SOCs occurred in the half or more of target areas, 67% were associated with a subsidence inversion layer by a synoptic-scale high pressure system. The low-level cloud-top height determined by two camera images at different altitudes almost corresponded with the height of the inversion layer observed by radio-sounding data at Wajima station. We concluded that the synoptic-scale subsidence inversion layer plays an important role in forming large-scale SOCs in the Japanese Alps region in addition to nocturnal radiative cooling conditions.

(Publlished in Japanese on Tenki 68, 2021: https://www.metsoc.jp/tenki/year.php)

How to cite: Ueno, K. and Kobayashi, Y.: The genesis tendency for a sea of clouds to occur at night in the Japanese Alps region derived by surface observation and satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1245, 2022.

EGU22-1333 | Presentations | AS1.16

Coverage of in situ climatological observations in the world's mountains 

James Thornton, Nicolas Pepin, Maria Shahgedanova, and Carolina Adler

Many mountainous environments and ecosystems around the world are responding rapidly to ongoing climate change. Long-term climatological time-series from such regions are crucial for developing improving understanding of the underlying mechanisms responsible for such changes, and generating more reliable future impact projections for environmental managers and other decision makers. Whilst it is already established that high elevation regions tend to be comparatively under-sampled, detailed spatial and other patterns in the coverage of mountain climatological data have not yet been comprehensively assessed on a global basis. To begin to address this deficiency, we analyse the coverage of records associated with the mountainous subset of the Global Historical Climatological Network-Daily (GHCNd) inventory with respect to space, time, and elevation. Three key climate-related variables – air temperature, precipitation, and snow depth – are considered across 292 named mountain ranges. To characterise data coverage relative to topographic, hydrological, and socio-economic factors, several additional datasets were introduced. Spatial mountain data coverage is highly uneven, and there are several mountain ranges whose elevational range is severely under-sampled by GHCNd stations. Crucially, the three "Water Tower Units" previously identified as having the greatest hydrological importance to society appear to have extremely low station densities. Mountain station density is weakly related to the human population or economic output of the corresponding downstream catchments. A script we developed enables detailed assessments of record temporal coverage and measurement quality information. This contribution should help international authorities and more regional stakeholders to identify areas, variables, and other aspects that should be prioritised for investment in infrastructure and capacity. Finally, the transparent and reproducible approach taken throughout will enable the work to be rapidly repeated for subsequent versions of GHCNd, and may furthermore enable similar analyses to be efficiently conducted on other spatial reporting boundaries and/or environmental monitoring station networks. 

How to cite: Thornton, J., Pepin, N., Shahgedanova, M., and Adler, C.: Coverage of in situ climatological observations in the world's mountains, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1333, 2022.

Foehn air parcels are typically associated with a pronounced warming within lee-side valleys. While the physical mechanism of this warming has been disputed for over a century, recent studies emphasize the key role of both adiabatic descent (isentropic drawdown), but also turbulent mixing and upstream latent heating in clouds, depending on the Foehn case and the region. This study aims to attribute the warming to adiabatic descent and key diabatic processes for six major Alpine Foehn valleys in Switzerland and Austria. To this end, a mesoscale model simulation including online trajectories is combined with a Lagrangian heat budget to investigate how relevant the different processes are for an intense and long-lasting South Foehn event in November 2016.

In agreement with earlier findings for the Alpine Foehn, adiabatic descent constitutes the most important process for the majority (57%) of air parcels arriving within the six Foehn valleys. Nonetheless, upstream latent heating in clouds is more important for a considerable number (35%) of air parcels. On the one hand, the Lagrangian analysis reveals a clear difference between western and eastern Alpine valleys, as adiabatic warming gradually becomes more important for the eastern valleys. On the other hand, a distinct temporal evolution is identified, where diabatic processes emerge as the main warming mechanism for the western valleys during the central phase of the Foehn event.

As the contribution for diabatic heating varies strongly for the different Foehn valleys, it is used to subdivide the Foehn trajectories into three different airstreams. Air parcels associated with intense diabatic heating are typically advected within a low-level easterly barrier jet in the Po Valley before traversing the Alps. Diabatically cooled air parcels, on the other hand, originate at higher levels and are quasi-horizontally advected from the south towards the Alpine crest. Hence, the varying intensity of the contributing airstreams dictates the dominating warming mechanism. The results prevent a clear separation into ‘Swiss Foehn’ and ‘Austrian Foehn’, as, in our case study, both varieties either simultaneously occur in the different valleys, or distinct time periods of the Foehn within a valley are more or less dominated by either or the other airstream.

How to cite: Jansing, L. and Sprenger, M.: Foehn air warming in six Alpine valleys: Lagrangian heat budget analysis and relation to airstreams, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1483, 2022.

EGU22-1612 | Presentations | AS1.16

Air temperature variability of the Hrubý Jeseník and Králický Sněžník Mountains peaks 

Lukáš Dolák, Kamil Láska, Jan Řehoř, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, and Marek Lahoda

Air temperature is one of the most significant meteorological variables. Reconstruction of air temperature is necessary to analyse temperature variability during the recent global warming. So far, significant attention has been paid to the study of air temperature variability in Central European mountain regions. However, only minimum studies dealt with the Hrubý Jeseník and Králický Sněžník Mountains (the Czech-Polish border, northern Moravia). The paper aims to reconstruct mean, maximal and minimal air temperatures of four mountain stations above 1 000 m a. s. l. in the Jeseníky and Králický Sněžník Mountains between 1961–2020 and reveal the possible trends. To compile a consistent input dataset both in time and space, input data for the interpolation underwent thorough data quality control, homogenisation and filling of missing data. Input values were interpolated employing regression kriging via the SoilClim model into maps in 500m spatial resolution on a daily scale. Short-term temperature series had been reconstructed back to 1961 and consequently compared to Vysoká hole station (1463 m a. s. l.). Statistical significant increasing 10year annual and seasonal temperature trends were proved in the 1961–2020 period. However, the temperature of mountain peaks of the Hrubý Jeseník and Králický Sněžník within 10year annual trend increased slower in comparison with lowlands (0.3°C, respectively 0.4°C). The results highlight the importance of air temperature analysis in the mountain regions and contribute to a better understanding of temperature variability in the recent global warming.

How to cite: Dolák, L., Láska, K., Řehoř, J., Štěpánek, P., Zahradníček, P., and Lahoda, M.: Air temperature variability of the Hrubý Jeseník and Králický Sněžník Mountains peaks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1612, 2022.

EGU22-1927 | Presentations | AS1.16

The momentum flux profiles produced by trapped lee waves 

Miguel A. C. Teixeira and José L. Argaín

Orographic gravity waves (also known as mountain waves) cause the atmosphere to exert a drag force on mountains. By Newton’s 3rd law, the mountains exert an equal and opposite force on the atmosphere. It is clear from linear wave theory how to develop a framework for representing this reaction force in parametrizations for vertically propagating waves in climate and weather prediction models: the waves break and dissipate either due to critical levels (where the wind speed is perpendicular to the horizontal wavenumber vector, or zero), or due to the progressive decrease of density with height. But the situation is more complicated for trapped lee waves, which propagate horizontally near the surface, and where the wave energy is alternately reflected at the ground and at an elevated layer where the waves become evanescent. It is clear that boundary layer friction should be responsible for most of the dissipation of trapped lee waves, but it is not clear, even in the inviscid approximation, what form the wave momentum flux profiles that force the large-scale mean flow will take. This is due to the complications associated with the fact that trapped lee waves have both horizontal and vertical momentum (and pseudo-momentum) fluxes, which oscillate indefinitely with the wave phase downstream of the orography. No mechanism equivalent to critical levels, or density decay with height, acting on vertically propagating mountain waves, is available for trapped lee waves. In this study, this limitation is overcome by accounting for the effects of weak friction. While for an inviscid trapped lee wave train, the horizontally integrated momentum flux is ill-defined (except at the surface), in a dissipative problem where friction exists, no matter how small, the wave train necessarily decays downstream, and so is spatially bounded. This allows the areally integrated effect of the trapped lee wave to be expressed in terms of the divergence of the vertical flux of horizontal wave momentum (as for vertically-propagating waves). On the other hand, the form of the momentum flux profile (which defines this divergence) is different from any form that could be inferred from inviscid theory, although it is independent of the magnitude of friction, as long as this is small. These results from linear theory are compared with high-resolution numerical simulations of trapped lee waves for the two-layer atmosphere of Scorer, which confirm the form of the momentum flux profiles, and suggest that these may be independent of the adopted form of friction, at least to some extent. The results therefore facilitate the formulation of parametrizations for trapped lee waves with a much more solid physical  basis, and are likely to be generalizable to other atmospheric profiles.

How to cite: Teixeira, M. A. C. and Argaín, J. L.: The momentum flux profiles produced by trapped lee waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1927, 2022.

EGU22-2666 | Presentations | AS1.16

Simulating the land-atmosphere exchange over mountainous terrain 

Manuela Lehner, Gaspard Simonet, Mathias W. Rotach, Friedrich Obleitner, Lorenzo Giovannini, and Leonardo Montagnani

Observations from six eddy-covariance stations in the Austrian Inn Valley reveal a strong spatial variability in near-surface turbulent fluxes. While the stations are located within an approximately 6.5 km long section of the valley and thus within an area similar or even smaller than a single grid cell in current global weather forecasting models, the sites strongly differ in terms of topography and land use. Observed magnitudes of sensible and latent heat fluxes are driven by the solar incoming radiation and thus affected by the local slope angle and orientation, with further influences from the land use on the partitioning of the available energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes. In addition, the locally induced thermal slope- and valley-wind circulation impact the diurnal cycles of the turbulent fluxes. To correctly represent turbulent exchange in mountainous terrain in numerical models, the models thus need to represent all these conditions and processes correctly. We are running WRF simulations with a 1-km grid spacing as part of an ongoing project to evaluate land-surface models and turbulence parameterizations over complex terrain. The simulations are used to determine how sensitive the modeled land-atmosphere exchange is to inaccuracies in the topography and land use, which are unavoidable at this spatial resolution, and whether the model can reproduce the observed spatial variability.

How to cite: Lehner, M., Simonet, G., Rotach, M. W., Obleitner, F., Giovannini, L., and Montagnani, L.: Simulating the land-atmosphere exchange over mountainous terrain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2666, 2022.

EGU22-2752 | Presentations | AS1.16

Altitudinal dependence of historical and future extreme events in the Great Alpine Region modelled with WRF 

Anna Napoli, Jost von Hardenberg, Claudia Pasquero, and Antonio Parodi

Climate change has a strong impact on the environment in mountain areas, especially since mountain ecosystems depend on climatic conditions that vary with altitude. In recent years, it has become clear that warming strongly depends on elevation. In this study, we examine projected climate change in the Greater Alpine Region using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Historical 30-year simulations (1979-2008) and climate change projections (2039-2068) were performed at high spatial resolution (4 km grid spacing) and with initial and boundary conditions provided by the global EC-Earth model. A focus on the altitudinal dependence of historical and future ETCCDI Climate Change indices is presented here: the results indicate that both temperature and precipitation are affected by climate change with an altitude dependence changing seasonally. Physical mechanism at the base of those differences are discussed.

How to cite: Napoli, A., von Hardenberg, J., Pasquero, C., and Parodi, A.: Altitudinal dependence of historical and future extreme events in the Great Alpine Region modelled with WRF, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2752, 2022.

EGU22-3680 | Presentations | AS1.16

A station-based evaluation of south foehn forecasting with COSMO-1 

Yue Tian, Juerg Schmidli, and Julian Quimbayo-Duarte

This study investigates the skill of the COSMO model (v5.7) at 1.1 km horizontal resolution (COSMO-1) in simulating the near-surface foehn evolution, with a focus on surface temperature, for a set of five south foehn events and a 5-year-long analysis dataset based on COSMO-1. A significant cold bias during foehn hours is found in the Rhine Valley as well as other northern Alpine valleys for all five cases and the 5-year climatology. Several possible causes of the cold bias are examined using sensitivity experiments for the five foehn cases. The sensitivity experiments include changes to the parameterization of the land-atmosphere interface (i.e. adoption of a skin temperature, a change of the heat resistance in the laminar sublayer, and a new formulation of the bare soil evaporation), to the 1D turbulence parameterization (including horizontal shear production of turbulence as a first step towards 3D effects), and to the horizontal grid spacing (1.1 km versus 550 m). While several of the sensitivity experiments impact the 2-m temperature during non-foehn hours, only a change in the horizontal grid spacing has a significant impact on the 2-m temperature during foehn hours. The 550-m run shows also an improvement in the simulated foehn duration and northward foehn extent. Possible reasons for the improvements and the remaining bias will be discussed.

How to cite: Tian, Y., Schmidli, J., and Quimbayo-Duarte, J.: A station-based evaluation of south foehn forecasting with COSMO-1, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3680, 2022.

EGU22-4257 | Presentations | AS1.16

Trends in temperature and precipitation in high mountain areas in Spain from the Spanish Hig Mountain Climate Database 

Javier Sigro, Antonio Jesús Pérez-Luque, Carmen Pérez-Martínez, Teresa Vegas-Vilarrubia, and Maria Jesus Esteban-Parra

Mountain regions are areas characterized by great spatial variability in climate variables, due to the great differences in altitude, orientation and the abrupt topography that characterizes them. These features of the territory, together with a relative lower density of meteorological stations, make it difficult to characterize climate change in these areas.

This work describes the Spanish High Mountain Climate Database (SHMCDv1) consisting of daily quality controlled and homogenised records of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation for the territories that include the two highest altitude national parks in mainland Spain, the Sierra Nevada National Park (PNSN) and the Aigüestortes i Sant Maurici National Park (PNASM), and its area of ​​influence.

To build this database, 129 climatic series corresponding to the PPNASM area and 166 series in the PNSN area have been used, for the period between 1893 and 2020, obtained from various sources (AEMET, SMC, Climanevada database, LOOP Project). A systematic quality control has been applied to the series using the RClimdex-extraqc (see http://www.c3.urv.cat/data/manual/Manual_rclimdex_extraQC.r.pdf). This procedure has allowed the identification of 857 values considered erroneous, of which 10% has been recovered with the correct value. Its homogeneity has been tested and adjusted with a CLIMATOL homogenization method developed by J. Guijarro (2016) (see http://www.climatol.eu/index.html). 205 inhomogeneities have been detected and adjusted in the temperature series, which represents an average of 2 inhomogeneities for each series.

In total, thermo-pluviometric series have been composed for a set of 98 meteorological stations, 27 of them located above 1500 meters of altitude.

Sen’s estimator of the slope have been used to estimate the temperature and precipitation trends corresponding to low mountain areas (<1500 m altitude) and high mountains (> 1500 m altitude) are calculated and analyzed to determine if there are differences in the evolution of recent temperature or precipitation due to altitude and between both mountain areas.

This work has been done thanks to funding from MINECO and MITECO, through the projects LACEN-CLI (ref: 2476-S/2017), MEROMONT (ref: CGL2017-85682-R) and Smart EcoMountains (LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01).

How to cite: Sigro, J., Pérez-Luque, A. J., Pérez-Martínez, C., Vegas-Vilarrubia, T., and Esteban-Parra, M. J.: Trends in temperature and precipitation in high mountain areas in Spain from the Spanish Hig Mountain Climate Database, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4257, 2022.

EGU22-5453 | Presentations | AS1.16

Impact of orography on current and future extreme sub-daily precipitation 

Letizia Lusito, Francesco Marra, Eleonora Dallan, Mattia Zaramella, Alberto Troccoli, and Marco Borga

Major natural hazards in mountainous regions, such as flash floods and debris flows are mainly triggered by short-duration extreme precipitation. A better understanding of how these events are affected by orography can significantly improve risk management and adaptation to changing climate. Recently, significant progress has been made in high-resolution (particularly convection-permitting) modelling of precipitation over complex terrain, with the advantages of improved topographical features, physical representation of mountain-precipitation interactions, and avoided errors from convective parameterizations.

Here, we examine the mountain-precipitation interactions for subdaily precipitation extremes from three 10-year time slices (historical 1996-2005, near-future 2041-2050, and far future 2090-2099 – under the RCP8.5 scenario) of COSMO-crCLIM model simulations at 2.2 km resolution. We use the Upper Adige river basin in the Eastern Italian Alps, with a good coverage of high-quality precipitation data, as a case study. The ability of the convection-permitting model to represent the orographic impact on precipitation is examined based on a comparison between 2000-2009 simulations from the COSMO model run driven with ERA Interim, and observations from the local rain gauge network.

Given the availability of relatively short time-slices of model simulation, which prevent the use of conventional extreme value methods, we use here methods based on the concept of ordinary events, which are all the independent events that share the statistical properties of extremes. This offers now an opportunity for deriving frequency analyses from shorter data records, promising improved applications based on convection precipitation simulations.

How to cite: Lusito, L., Marra, F., Dallan, E., Zaramella, M., Troccoli, A., and Borga, M.: Impact of orography on current and future extreme sub-daily precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5453, 2022.

EGU22-5840 | Presentations | AS1.16

Sensitivity of the simulation of thermally-driven circulations in an idealized valley to planetary boundary layer parameterizations 

Lorenzo Giovannini, Andrea Zonato, Dario Di Santo, Andrea Bisignano, and Dino Zardi

This contribution aims at presenting results from the project “Atmospheric boundary-layer modeling over complex terrain”, a collaboration between the University of Trento, the University of Bolzano and the University of Innsbruck with the objective to evaluate the performance of turbulence and land surface parameterizations over mountainous terrain and to identify potential issues that have a large impact on model results and consequently on the quality of weather forecasts.

A set of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations at 1 km horizontal resolution is performed in an idealized three-dimensional valley-plain topography, using typical geometrical features of a north-south Alpine valley, with ridges up to 1500 m above the valley floor and a distance of 20 km from crest to crest. Simulations are initialized with a linear and stable vertical profile of potential temperature, dry air and an atmosphere at rest. The aim of the modeling experiment is to evaluate the sensitivity of model results to planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, exploring the performance of the PBL schemes implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, including a newly developed k-ε closure. Results from the RANS simulations are compared against a large-eddy simulation (LES) with a resolution of 100 m, which is taken as the benchmark. A full diurnal cycle has been considered for the evaluation of numerical results, focusing on the development of along- and cross-valley thermally-driven circulations and on the associated thermal field both in the nighttime and in the daytime phases. The sensitivity of model results to the change of the PBL scheme is assessed using as key metrics the strength and the timing of the thermally-driven circulations, as well as the vertical profiles of mean and turbulent quantities, when available. Results show that in most cases there is a good agreement between RANS simulations and the LES considering the main features of both along- and cross-valley circulations and the diurnal evolution of the thermal stratification. In particular, the intensity of the along-valley wind is generally well-reproduced by all the RANS simulations, while higher discrepancies are found for the timing of the evening transition. On the other hand, RANS simulations are in good agreement with the LES considering the timing of slope winds, whereas the simulation of their intensity presents much more variability, especially during nighttime.

How to cite: Giovannini, L., Zonato, A., Di Santo, D., Bisignano, A., and Zardi, D.: Sensitivity of the simulation of thermally-driven circulations in an idealized valley to planetary boundary layer parameterizations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5840, 2022.

EGU22-6441 | Presentations | AS1.16

Turbulent flow in the inner layer of a katabatic jet along a steep alpine slope 

Christophe Brun, Claudine Charrondière, Emil Hopfinger, Jean-Martial Cohard, and Jean-Emmanuel Sicart

Katabatic winds are generated by the combination of a vertical density gradient, slope and gravity, when the surface radiative budget is negative. We presently analyse some results of a campaign led in the French Alps in 2019 (Charrondière et al. 2022) in order to study katabatic flows over a steep snowy alpine slope of about 30°, that develop during winter anticyclonic conditions. In the topographic and meteorological configuration of the experiment, these downslope flows have a jet shape, with a maximum wind speed height zj very close to the surface, at about 30 cm height.

A 3D pitot type sensor allowed measurements of wind speed down to 3 cm height above the surface, at a high sampling frequency of 1250 Hz. Sonic anemometers placed on a fixed bracket allowed to capture for the first time the 3D velocity of the katabatic flows (f=20 Hz) in the topographic coordinate system, whereas previous studies are in the streamline coordinate system.

We focus mainly on the inner region of the jet, below zj. The turbulent momentum flux is decreasing with height, and its variation can be derived from a simplification of the along-slope momentum equation where the gravity term balances the turbulent momentum flux gradient to first order, as shown in Denby and Smeets (2000).

We compare the inner region of the jet with a neutral turbulent boundary layer in terms of wind speed profile, and derive a correction of the classical log-law that considers the gravity effect on the along-slope velocity. This correction is different from the well-known Monin-Obukhov stability correction, which is negligible for the present flow because of relative low turbulent sensible heat fluxes compared to turbulent momentum fluxes.

We also show that the slope-normal velocity is negative and as high as 10-15% of the maximum wind speed in the inner region of the jet. The slope-normal momentum equation behavior in this region of the jet is consistent with the observations and confirms that a gravity source term directs the flow to the ground.

We finally analyze the impact of gravity on the temperature equation: the mean temperature profile and the turbulent sensible heat flux are also modified by it. All these modifications have implications on the turbulent Prandtl number, which behaves differently from what we expect on a neutral turbulent boundary layer cooled at the surface.

Charrondière, C., Brun, C., Cohard, JM. et al. Katabatic Winds over Steep Slopes: Overview of a Field Experiment Designed to Investigate Slope-Normal Velocity and Near-Surface Turbulence. Boundary-Layer Meteorol 182, 29–54 (2022). 

Denby B, Smeets CJPP (2000) Derivation of turbulent flux profiles and roughness lengths from katabatic flow dynamics. Journal of Applied Meteorology 39(9):1601–1612

How to cite: Brun, C., Charrondière, C., Hopfinger, E., Cohard, J.-M., and Sicart, J.-E.: Turbulent flow in the inner layer of a katabatic jet along a steep alpine slope, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6441, 2022.

EGU22-6490 | Presentations | AS1.16

Towards spatio-temporal measurements in the mountain boundary layer with a fleet of UAS 

Norman Wildmann, Tamino Wetz, and Josef Zink

Exchange and transport processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) are driven by turbulence on a wide range of scales. Their adequate parameterization in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is essential for a high predictive skill of forecasts. In heterogenous and complex terrain, the common simplification of turbulence to statistical models does not necessarily hold. Coherent structures such as convective cells, secondary circulations, gusts, slope and valley flows can be summarized to sub-mesoscale structures which are not well represented in models. A reason for the lack of understanding of these flow features is the challenge to adequately sample their three-dimensional, spatio-temporal structure and their contribution to the energy budget of the ABL.
We present a system to achieve simultaneous spatial measurements with a fleet of multirotor unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). The major benefit of this approach is, that true simultaneous measurements can be obtained without the need of expensive infrastructure such as masts or lidar instruments. In field campaigns with more than 1000 single flights at the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg - Richard Aßmann-Observatory (MOL-RAO), the system was validated in 2020 and 2021 to provide reliable measurements of the horizontal wind vector. We showed that turbulent eddies can be resolved with a time resolution of up to 2~Hz, unless the overall TKE level is below the noise threshold of the UAS measurements, which can be the case in stable atmospheric stratification. Additionally to the wind vector estimation that is based only on avionic data from the autopilot, pressure, temperature and humidity sensors are carried by each UAS.
In future, within the project ESTABLIS-UAS, the fleet of UAS shall be expanded and capabilities for flights beyond visual line of sight and throughout the whole ABL shall be developed. The project includes a three-fold approach to validate single UAS measurements, fleet observations and methods to derive spatial averages and fluxes. Wind tunnel tests, field experiments and virtual measurements in numerical simulations will be performed to gain confidence in the achievable accuracy in a wide range of conditions. Also, measurement strategies are to be developed that allow the derivation of meaningful fluxes in the mountain boundary layer (MoBL). 
The UAS fleet is planned to be deployed in two campaigns in the framework of the TEAMx research programme. The ESTABLIS-UAS measurements will fill observational gaps in the sub-mesoscale. The analysis of the UAS fleet data in synthesis with continuous ground observations and remote sensing will provide unprecedented new insights into the complex MoBL flow. The results will foster the development of new and better parameterization of the ABL in complex terrain.

How to cite: Wildmann, N., Wetz, T., and Zink, J.: Towards spatio-temporal measurements in the mountain boundary layer with a fleet of UAS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6490, 2022.

In mountainous regions, incoming surface radiation is strongly influenced by surrounding and local terrain. The direct beam part of incoming shortwave radiation depends both on local slope angle and azimuth as well as on neighbouring terrain, which can induce topographic shading. Shortwave radiation can be reflected (multiple times) by terrain, which leads to enhanced incoming diffuse shortwave radiation for locations with a reduced sky view factor (SVF) – particularly under snow-covered conditions when surface reflectivity is high. Finally, incoming longwave radiation can also be modulated by neighbouring terrain due to radiation exchange between facing slopes.

Considering these effects in spatially distributed land surface models – either stand-alone or embedded in weather and climate models – typically requires the following topographic quantities: slope angle, slope aspect, terrain horizon and SVF. The first two quantities can be computed rapidly because they only depend on local terrain. The computation of the latter two quantities is however expensive, particularly for high-resolution (~30 m) digital elevation models (DEMs), because a large quantity of non-local DEM information has to be processed. We developed a new efficient algorithm for terrain horizon computation, which is based on a high-performance ray-tracing library. A benchmark against conventional algorithms confirmed its high performance – particularly for DEMs with very high resolution and for large terrain horizon search distances. Furthermore, due to the smooth representation of terrain by a triangle mesh, the new algorithm does not reveal artefacts in the computed horizon line in cases where the horizon is formed by proximal terrain. Finally, we demonstrate that the new algorithm is also eligible to compute sub-grid SVF for large spatial domains in a very efficient way. Sub-grid SVF is a useful quantity to parameterise above-mentioned topographic effects on surface radiation in weather and climate models applied on regional or even global scales.

How to cite: Steger, C. R., Steger, B., and Schär, C.: An efficient ray-tracing based algorithm to compute terrain horizon and sky view factor to consider topographic effects on surface radiation in spatially distributed land surface models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6719, 2022.

EGU22-7023 | Presentations | AS1.16

Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition of the variability of precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia 

Xuefeng Guan, Junqiang Yao, and Christoph Schneider

Considerable knowledge gaps remain in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in the Tianshan, a large system of mountain ranges located in Central Asia. Based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data set and NCEP/NACR reanalysis data, this study investigates the precipitation variations over the Tianshan Mountains on different time scales using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), and a subsequent attribution analysis with respect to large-scale climate modes.

During 1950-2016, the annual precipitation in most of the Tianshan regions showed an increasing trend with the exception of its wettest sub-regions, the Western Tianshan. In addition to the overall trend, the annual precipitation in Tianshan shows high-frequency variations of 3-year and 6-year quasi-periods and low-frequency variations of 12-year and 27-year quasi-periods. Winter precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains exhibits multi-decadal oscillations with periods of 26.8 and 44.7 years, with similar multi-decadal variability as the East Atlantic-Western Russia (EATL/WRUS) teleconnection pattern. The enhanced meridional characteristics of the EATL/WRUS trigger more water vapor fluxes from low-latitude oceanic regions, resulting in a wet period of Tianshan in winter after 1988. Similarly, summer precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains entered a wet period after 1986. The Scandinavian (SCAND) teleconnection pattern is significantly negatively correlated with Tianshan summer precipitation. During the negative phase of SCAND in summer, strong high pressure over the Ural Mountains and low pressure over Central Asia combine to induce enhanced conveying of water vapour to the Tianshan from the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, the Silk Road pattern (SRP) and East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) have affected Tianshan summer precipitation for the periods 1964-1984 and 1985-2004.

How to cite: Guan, X., Yao, J., and Schneider, C.: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition of the variability of precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7023, 2022.

EGU22-8009 | Presentations | AS1.16

Examining turbulent scalar exchange during a strong wind event 

Wilhelm Hodder, Ian Renfrew, Andrew Elvidge, Peter Sheridan, and Guðrún Nína Petersen

Various research has been conducted into the turbulent momentum fluxes in orographic flow, and is in some models parameterised to simulate orographic form drag, yet the role of turbulent exchange of heat and moisture presents a somewhat opaque picture, as these processes are generally not resolved or parameterised in NWP models.  We present results from rare, low-level leeside turbulence observations in a strong mountain wind event.  These observations were obtained in 2018 during the Iceland-Greenland Seas Project (IGP) field campaign, a coupled atmosphere-ocean project, which included two research flights over the steep and complex orography of two Icelandic peninsulas with the aim of investigating leeside turbulent exchange processes.  High resolution regional model MetOffice Unified Model (MetUM) forecasts are run and compared to in-situ observations from 12th and 19th March 2018 over the Westfjords and Snaesfellsness peninsula in north-western Iceland.  With sub-kilometre horizontal grid-cell lengths flow features such as a downslope windstorm coupled with a hydraulic jump and a wave-breaking region directly aloft are well resolved and provide suitable cases for testing different MetUM science configurations.  The evaluation of control forecasts has shown a consistent 2 K bias in the lower atmospheric boundary layer sourced from the global driving model.  Sensitivity tests are run with the aim to ultimately parameterise scalar transport of heat and moisture in the leeside orographic flow.  This presentation will outline current progress and, to a degree, will attempt to answer the question of the significance and importance of turbulent scalar exchange within a strong wind event.

Keywords: MetUM, tuurtbulent exchange, orographic, NWP, Iceland

How to cite: Hodder, W., Renfrew, I., Elvidge, A., Sheridan, P., and Petersen, G. N.: Examining turbulent scalar exchange during a strong wind event, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8009, 2022.

EGU22-9456 | Presentations | AS1.16

An idealized study of convection initiation along orographic drylines 

Stefano Serafin and Emily Potter

The climatological frequency of deep moist convection is enhanced in the vicinity of mountainous regions. Most studies to date focus on convection initiation (CI) on the windward side of mountains, but uplift and CI can also occur on their lee side. The factors controlling this phenomenon are only partially understood, but it is frequently hypothesized that a lee-side hydraulic jump may provide the uplift required to initiate lee-side convection.

Here we argue that lee-side CI is best understood as a consequence of low-level convergence along an orographic dryline. The dryline marks the boundary between relatively dry air desceding from the mountains and conditionally unstable air over an adjacent plain. The stronger the convergence along the dryline, the more likely is CI to occur.

We initially focus on the atmospheric conditions leading to strong lee-side convergence and low-level uplift in an unsaturated atmosphere. A variety of scenarios are investigated using an idealised modelling setup, exploring a range of linearity and hydrostaticity of the cross-mountain flow and varying surface fluxes. By computing a convergence budget, we determine the dominant forcings affecting lee-side convergence and how these vary across flow regimes. A relationship is determined between the level of hydrostaticity and linerity of the flow, the strength of lee side convergence, and the corresponding boundary-layer uplift.

We then turn to considering flows with a conditionally unstable leeside environment. We replicate the scenarios in which strong lee-side convergence and low-level uplift are expected, and we determine whether the uplift is actually sufficient to initiate deep moist convection.

How to cite: Serafin, S. and Potter, E.: An idealized study of convection initiation along orographic drylines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9456, 2022.

EGU22-10345 | Presentations | AS1.16

Climate variability of glacierized areas under contrasted climate conditions over the last 60 years 

Amen Al-YAARI, Thomas Condom, Clementine Junquas, Antoine Rabatel, Jean-emmanuel Sicart, Sophie Cauvy, and Olivier Dangles

Mountains are specific systems, very sensitive to climate change. Most mountain glaciers around the world are shrinking, which is often associated with global warming over the last decades. Identifying the impact of climate changes on mountain glaciers and possible consequences on surrounding ecosystems and biodiversity is a prerequisite to better enhance adaptation and mitigation capacities at local and regional scales. The overall objective of the study is to investigate the climatic variability on annual and seasonal time scales during the last decades. Trends and breakpoints in time-series are analyzed in rainfall, solar irradiance, maximum and minimum temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in twenty-one contrasting locations situated in temperate zones (in the European Alps, the Pyrenees), in the Andean tropical and subtropical zones (Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela, Colombia, Peru), tropical Southeast Asia (Indonesia), equatorial Africa (Rwenzori) and, arid and high latitude zones (Argentina). We analyzed how the trends are associated with cloud cover properties (e.g., mean cloud amount, mean cloud pressure, radiatively-weighted average cloud visible optical thickness, and mean cloud temperature) and various climate variability indices: the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decal Oscillation (PDO), the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Within this work, we used high resolution gridded datasets: Terraclimate (Monthly Climate and Climatic Water Balance for Global Terrestrial Surfaces), CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations), MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation), regional simulations from 12 models provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and the Cloud_cci Along-Track Scanning Radiometer and Advanced data set. Long-term (i.e. 1958-2020) significant trends of increased (decreased) annual and seasonal Tmax were identified over all European, Andean, Indonesian, and African glaciers. Over the Argentinian glaciers, long-term trend analysis shows a non-significant increasing trend in Tmax. Over all glaciers, long-term trend analysis shows a significant increasing trend in Tmin. Long-term significant trends of decreased annual rainfall were identified over African and most Alps and Pyrenees glaciers. On the other hand, no significant trends of rainfall were identified over the other glaciers. European glaciers were more influenced by the cloud cover properties than the tropical glaciers, with negative correlations between mean cloud amount and Tmax and solar irradiance. AMO plays a greater role than ENSO and PDO in causing climatological changes on glaciers in temperate and African zones. While the Bolivian and Argentinian glaciers were the least influenced by AMO and NAO, most of the glaciers in Ecuador and Colombia were the most influenced by SOI. These preliminary results highlight strong regional contrasts in climate variability (and its response to the influence of large-scale climatic variability patterns) between the different regions of the world.

How to cite: Al-YAARI, A., Condom, T., Junquas, C., Rabatel, A., Sicart, J., Cauvy, S., and Dangles, O.: Climate variability of glacierized areas under contrasted climate conditions over the last 60 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10345, 2022.

EGU22-10385 | Presentations | AS1.16 | Highlight

Elevation-dependent warming in the tropical and subtropical Andes with CORDEX models 

Elisa Palazzi, Osmar Toledo, Ivan Mauricio Cely Toro, and Luca Mortarini

Several studies report on elevation-dependent warming (EDW), i.e., when warming rates change with elevation. This study assesses future EDW in the Andes, using an ensemble of regional climate model simulations belonging to the CORDEX experiment. EDW was assessed by calculating the (minimum and maximum) temperature difference between the end of the century (2071-2100) and the period 1976-2005 and relating it to the elevation. For the maximum temperatures, a positive EDW (enhancement of warming rates with elevation) was identified in both the western and eastern side of the tropical and subtropical Andes and in all seasons. For the minimum temperature, while a positive EDW was identified in the Subtropics (particularly in the western side of the chain), the Tropics are characterized by a negative EDW throughout the year. The tropical boundary marks a transition between discordant EDW behaviours in the minimum temperature. In the Tropics, EDW drivers were found to be different for the minimum temperature (Tmin) and for the maximum temperature (Tmax). Changes in Tmin  are mostly associated with changes in downward longwave radiation, while changes in Tmax are mainly driven by changes in downward shortwave radiation. This might explain the opposite EDW signal found in the tropical Andes during daytime and nighttime. Changes in albedo are an ubiquitous driver for positive EDW in the Subtropics, for both the minimum and the maximum temperature. Changes in longwave radiation and humidity are also EDW drivers in the Subtropics but with different relevance throughout the seasons and during daytime and nighttime. Besides the dependence on the latitude, we found that the western and eastern sides of the Cordillera might be influenced by different EDW drivers.

How to cite: Palazzi, E., Toledo, O., Cely Toro, I. M., and Mortarini, L.: Elevation-dependent warming in the tropical and subtropical Andes with CORDEX models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10385, 2022.

EGU22-10801 | Presentations | AS1.16

A decade of atmospheric composition observations in the undersampled Central Andes 

Marcos Andrade, Diego Aliaga, Luis Blacutt, Ricardo Forno, René Gutierrez, Fernando Velarde, Isabel Moreno, Laura Ticona, Alfred Wiedensohler, Radek Krejci, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Laurent, David Whiteman, Claudia Mohr, and Paolo Laj

Ten years of almost continuous observations at the highest Global Atmosphere Watch Regional station in the world are presented here. The Chacaltaya observatory (5240 m asl, 16.3ºS, 68.1ºW) was set up in December 2011. It is currently the only operational station characterizing optical and chemical properties of climate-relevant aerosol and gases in Bolivia and in a radius of about 1500 kilometers from the station. The observations show a clear influence of the well-marked dry and wet meteorological seasons. In addition, the impact on the Andean mountains of long and mid-range transport of biomass burning products from the lowlands is clearly recorded in different parameters measured at the station. Furthermore, the nearby presence of the largest metropolitan area in the region (~1.8 million inhabitants) is observed almost on a daily basis, and therefore different campaigns were carried out to characterize the area and its influence on our measurements. Specific results from these campaigns are discussed elsewhere. Finally, the topographic complexity represents an important challenge for modeling efforts in order to understand sources and sinks (and associated processes) of the observed parameters, requiring not only high spatial resolution and the correct choice of model options, but a novel way of interpreting these results. The decade of collaboration of an international consortium made it possible to keep the station running successfully. The challenge is now to preserve its functioning for the coming decades in a region with historically few high-quality observations while disrupting environmental and socio-economic changes take place.

How to cite: Andrade, M., Aliaga, D., Blacutt, L., Forno, R., Gutierrez, R., Velarde, F., Moreno, I., Ticona, L., Wiedensohler, A., Krejci, R., Ramonet, M., Laurent, O., Whiteman, D., Mohr, C., and Laj, P.: A decade of atmospheric composition observations in the undersampled Central Andes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10801, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10801, 2022.

EGU22-11304 | Presentations | AS1.16

Elevational patterns of climate change – an assessment of temperature and precipitation for the mountain regions of the world 

Wolfgang Schöner, Nicholas Pepin, Enrico Arnone, Andreas Gobiet, Klaus Haslinger, Sven Kotlarski, Claudia Notarnicola, Elisa Palazzi, Petra Seibert, Stefano Serafin, Silvia Terzago, James M. Thornton, Mathias Vuille, and Carolina Adler

Mountains and high elevation regions are often viewed as climate change “hotspots” which are responding particularly rapid to global climate forcing and may anticipate or amplify what is occurring elsewhere. Accelerating mountain climate change has widespread impacts ranging from an enhanced loss of snow and ice, through impacts on the hydrological regimes, to changes in ecological zonation as species move uphill. We examine global evidence for elevation contrasts in temperature trends (also known as elevation-dependent warming, EDW) and precipitation changes. We performed a meta-analysis of existing studies, which used in-situ station temperature and precipitation data from mountain regions as reported by the IPCC, and we analysed global gridded datasets (observations, reanalyses and model hindcasts). In both cases, we examined the elevation dependency of temperature and precipitation changes since 1900. The meta-analysis indicates that studies using pairs of station groups (in mountains and nearby low elevation areas) show a tendency towards enhanced warming at higher elevations. However, when all past studies of observations are combined globally, no systematic difference in warming rates for high vs. low elevation groups is found. Thus, on a global scale, local and regional features may obscure EDW. Precipitation changes in mountain areas based on station data are inconsistent, and a global elevational gradient in precipitation trends does not emerge. Gridded datasets (CRU, GISTEMP, GPCC, ERA5, CMIP5) show increased warming rates at higher elevations in specific regions (e.g. Andes for CMIP5 and Greater Alpine Region for ERA5), but again, there is no universal amplification of warming in mountains. The agreement between datasets is weak for temperature. Changes in precipitation show a tendency towards weaker (stronger) increase at higher (lower) elevations, especially in mid-latitudes. This means that the orographic effect may be weakening on a global scale, which may be a result of both thermodynamics and changes in atmospheric circulation.

How to cite: Schöner, W., Pepin, N., Arnone, E., Gobiet, A., Haslinger, K., Kotlarski, S., Notarnicola, C., Palazzi, E., Seibert, P., Serafin, S., Terzago, S., Thornton, J. M., Vuille, M., and Adler, C.: Elevational patterns of climate change – an assessment of temperature and precipitation for the mountain regions of the world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11304, 2022.

EGU22-11318 | Presentations | AS1.16

HICAR: An intermediate-complexity atmospheric model capable of resolving ridge-scale snow deposition processes over large mountain ranges 

Dylan Reynolds, Bert Kruyt, Ethan Gutmann, Tobias Jonas, Michael Lehning, and Rebecca Mott

Snow models rely on accurate meteorological input data at the spatial scales at which they operate. However, even the highest resolution operational atmospheric models often run at horizontal resolutions at least an order of magnitude coarser than most snow models. Different downscaling techniques can be employed to bridge this scale gap, typically being sorted into either statistical or dynamical techniques. Statistical techniques often rely on temporally invariant spatial patterns or simplistic conceptual relationships, making them computationally cheap but prone to errors. Dynamical downscaling generally offers a counterpoint to this tradeoff: stronger physical basis but more computational demand. Efforts have been made to optimize this tradeoff of dynamic downscaling, reducing computational demand while maintaining physical accuracy of predicted variables as well as the interdependency of downscaled variables such as winds and precipitation. The Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model recently demonstrated an ability to match precipitation patterns from WRF, but with computational costs at least two orders of magnitude lower. While promising, these results from a 4km comparison did not translate to finer spatial resolutions often needed as input to snow models.

Thus, we introduce the High-resolution Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model (HICAR), a new variant of the ICAR model developed for spatial resolutions as high as 50m. Relative to a traditional atmospheric model like WRF, HICAR maintains the orders-of-magnitude reduction in computational demand which ICAR displayed, while resolving terrain-induced effects on the wind field not seen in ICAR. This is achieved through a novel combination of adjustments to a background wind field based on terrain descriptors with a wind solver. The solver enforces a mass-conservation constraint on the 3D wind field. These modifications successfully mimic dynamic effects such as flow blocking, ridge-crest speed up, and lee-side recirculation to be captured in the resulting wind field. These features are of particular importance for resolving snow deposition patterns, where the snow particles are particularly susceptible to advection by the near-surface flow field. We validate the accuracy of HICAR’s flow features using a wind LiDAR deployed in complex terrain and show a comparison between flow fields from HICAR and WRF at a horizontal resolution of 50 m. These comparisons demonstrate HICAR’s ability to resolve terrain-induced modifications to the flow field which result in increased heterogeneity of ridge-scale snowfall patterns. To this point, preliminary comparisons of snow deposition patterns in complex terrain between the HICAR and WRF models are offered. With this new model, physically-based downscaling of precipitation and other atmospheric variables which preserves their interdependencies is made available for high-resolutions (100m) and large-spatial extents (10,000 km2) which are often demanded by operational land-surface models.

How to cite: Reynolds, D., Kruyt, B., Gutmann, E., Jonas, T., Lehning, M., and Mott, R.: HICAR: An intermediate-complexity atmospheric model capable of resolving ridge-scale snow deposition processes over large mountain ranges, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11318, 2022.

EGU22-11743 | Presentations | AS1.16

Climatology and some dynamic features of inversions in Iceland 

Lilja Steinunn Jónsdóttir and Haraldur Ólafsson

It is well known that atmospheric inversions may be decisive for the response of the atmospheric flow to an encounter with mountains.  In the literature, there has indeed been focus on this impact of inversions on the flow, but less focus on the inversions themselves; when, where and why the occur.  In this study, a large set of upper-air data from Iceland is explored to assess the climatology of inversions, and to some extent, the characteristics of the flow associated with statically stable layers in the troposphere.  The data reveal high frequency of tropospheric inversions, typically at 800-900 hPa.  The maximum frequency is from late winter until late autumn, with a minimum in mid-winter.  In the summer, the mean elevation of the inversions is lower than in the late winter and in the autumn.  Inversions in southerly flow are typically associated with moderate baroclinicity and advection of relatively warm airmasses above the inversion.  Inversions in northerly flow do not show this characteristic.   Case studies indicate substantial variability in synoptic-scale flow patterns leading to inversions.

How to cite: Jónsdóttir, L. S. and Ólafsson, H.: Climatology and some dynamic features of inversions in Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11743, 2022.

EGU22-11753 | Presentations | AS1.16

Future perspectives of natural and technical snow in Austria 

Andreas Gobiet, Bruno Abbeg, Roland Koch, Marc Olefs, Vanessa Seitner, Ulrich Strasser, and Michael Warscher

Despite the large socio-economic and ecologic relevance of snow in Austria, no comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on snow in Austria existed until recently. Within the project „Future Snow Cover Evolution in Austria” (FuSE-AT, https://fuse-at.ccca.ac.at/) gridded observational datasets and the national climate scenarios (ÖKS15) have been extended by basic variables and user oriented indicators around the topic snow. This has been realized by developing a gridded snow model for climatological time-scales, based on the operational snow model of ZAMG (SNOWGRID-CL) and driving it with gridded meteorological datasets for the past (1961 – 2019) and with the full ensemble of ÖKS15 (including the emission pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) into the future (1961 – 2100)  to generate daily snow variables on a 1 km x 1 km grid. The results are available for users via the Data Centre of the Climate Change Centre Austria (https://fuse-at.ccca.ac.at/).

This new dataset includes snow water equivalent, snow depth, new snow, run-off from snow melt and the number of hours with suitable meteorological conditions for technical snow generation (using different wet-bulb-temperatures as threshold criteria). In addition, numerous user-oriented indicators have been analyzed. In close cooperation with stakeholders from the sectors winter tourism, hydropower generation and water supply, case studies to demonstrate socio-economically relevant  applications of this new dataset have been conducted.

The results show that the natural snow season length has significantly decreased already in the past in virtually all areas and altitude levels of Austria. Future scenarios of snow heavily depend on the emission pathway. The snow season length is expected to decrease by about three weeks (corresponds to -20% to -30% around 1500 m a.s.l.) until the mid-21st century in all scenarios, but it stabilizes on this level in RCP2.6, while it drastically further decreases in RCP8.5 to losses around -80% to -90% below 1500 m a.s.l. Further, we could demonstrate that the meteorological potential for generation of technical snow responds less sensitive to climate change than natural snow, but strongly depends on  altitude, exposition, time horizon and emission pathway. More detailed results will be given in the presentation.

How to cite: Gobiet, A., Abbeg, B., Koch, R., Olefs, M., Seitner, V., Strasser, U., and Warscher, M.: Future perspectives of natural and technical snow in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11753, 2022.

EGU22-11963 | Presentations | AS1.16

Observed trends in snow phenology and duration across Romania (1961 to 2020) 

Vlad Amihăesei, Dana Magdalena Micu, Alexandru Dumitrescu, and Sorin Cheval

Snow cover phenology (onset, melting) and duration are expected to react to temperature trends. Quantification of snow cover changes is an essential step for further climate change impact evaluations given their multiple meteorological, hydrological, ecological, and societal implications. This study revisits the snow trends across Romania, using data from 114 weather stations (14 located in the Carpathian Mountains, at above 1,000 m), with complete and long-term series of snow observations,covering the 1-2,504 m elevation range. The trends in the dates of snow cover onset (SCO), snow cover melting (SCM) and snow cover duration (SCD) over the past 60 years (1961–2020) have been investigated over five elevation bands (<500, 501-1,000, 1,001-1,500, 1,501-2,000, and 2,001-2,500 m) for identifying hot-spots of snow cover change and retrieving evidence of elevation-dependency under climate warming. A declining SCD was systematically observed country-wide, statistically significant at only 25% of the weather stations included in this study. The decline is more accelerated in the lowlands, generallybelow 500 m. On the opposite, there is no statistically significance SCD change at above 2,000 m. Overall, SCD trends show no statistical dependency on elevation. The SCD decline is driven by the negative changes in SCM, due to the stronger warming in the late-winter and spring than in the fall and early winter. The snowmelting date advanced the most by over 7 day decade-1at mid-to-high elevations (1,500-2,000 m) and in the lowlands (below 1,000 m). In the mountains, the most notable delays occurred in the Western and Southern Carpathians (~4-7 days decade-1). At above 2,000 m, the negative SCM trends are weaker (~4 days decade-1) and not statistically significant. Unlike SCM, over most parts of the country (63% of stations) SCO advanced towards winter, although only about 7% of trends were statistically significant (mostly at stations below 300 m). The SCO advance evolved at fairly comparable rates when comparing the highlands (above 1,000 m, ~4 day decade-1) and the lowlands (below 1,000 m, 4 to 5 days decade-1). An opposite climate signal, indicating earlier snow onsets was also observed at about 30% of stations (including the highest elevation stations, located at above 2,200 m), although not statistically significant. Overall, SCO and SCM trends show a weak-to-moderate but statistically significant relationship with elevation (r=.23-.25, p<0.05), suggesting, on the one hand, that warming effects on snow phenology are particularly strong in the lowlands and, on the other hand, that there are other driving factors influencing the snow phenology(i.e., atmospheric circulation, local factors).Our results are linked to the rising temperature, particularly strong in winter and spring, which in our case is more accelerated in the low elevation areas.

This study was funded by the Ministry of Environment, Water and Forests, in the framework of research project A.III.10 (Spatial-temporal climate variability in Romania).

 

How to cite: Amihăesei, V., Micu, D. M., Dumitrescu, A., and Cheval, S.: Observed trends in snow phenology and duration across Romania (1961 to 2020), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11963, 2022.

EGU22-12324 | Presentations | AS1.16

Elevation-dependent surface temperature changes in the Andes 

Marie Stöckhardt, Lorenz Hänchen, Christoph Thomas, Fabien Maussion, and Georg Wohlfahrt

On average, surface temperatures are rising globally, but the pace of warming varies with regional factors. Rates of warming are expected to increase with elevation, a phenomenon referred to as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). Drivers of EDW include albedo changes due to an upward migration of snow- and treelines, as well as a rise of the condensation level and water vapour changes.

Amplified warming in high altitudes can have a great impact on mountain ecosystems and agriculture, which are particularly sensitive to changes in climate. The cryosphere is also impacted by EDW, with consequences for downstream water availability. While various studies have reported the presence of EDW, it is still unclear whether the phenomenon occurs in all mountain ranges or at all elevations. Research on EDW is made more difficult by sparse station observations: satellite data can be used to overcome these limits and facilitate analysis on the scale of whole mountain ranges and for longer time periods.

In this study, we used 20 years of land surface temperature (LST) observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) on board of the TERRA satellite. The Andes were chosen as study area due to their latitudinal and altitudinal extent, which covers a wide range of climate and socio-economic zones.

We found warming to occur predominantly in the midlatitudes, while in the tropical Andes both, cooling and warming patterns occur. Additionally, seasonal variations of the magnitude and sign of the trends are more pronounced in the tropical latitudes than in the southern Andes. On average, EDW occurs in the western part of the Andes (Pacific watershed), while we find no elevation-dependence or even an opposite pattern (less warming at higher elevations) for the eastern side (Atlantic watershed). Our results depict the complex nature of EDW and call for further process-based studies supported by remote sensing data.

How to cite: Stöckhardt, M., Hänchen, L., Thomas, C., Maussion, F., and Wohlfahrt, G.: Elevation-dependent surface temperature changes in the Andes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12324, 2022.

EGU22-12736 | Presentations | AS1.16

Extreme winds over Greenland in the CARRA dataset 

Philipp Weitzel and Haraldur Ólafsson

A dynamic downscaling of atmospheric flow over Greenland in the CARRA dataset is explored with emphasis on wind extremes.  Regions of frequent strong winds are defined and the dynamics dominating windstorms in these regions are brought to light by references to mechanisms of acceleration of stably stratified atmospheric flow above or in the vicinity of mountains and the interaction between the atmosphere and the heterogenous surface of the earth. Some of the jets are well known, such as the Cape Farewell Tip jet, while other jets have not received much, if any, attention by the meteorological community.  One of these undescribed jets is the NE-Greenland downslope wind in westerly flows.

How to cite: Weitzel, P. and Ólafsson, H.: Extreme winds over Greenland in the CARRA dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12736, 2022.

EGU22-12750 | Presentations | AS1.16

Exploiting kilometer-scale grid spacing for climate simulations over High Mountain Asia 

Emily Collier and Nikolina Ban

Mountains play a major role in shaping the weather and climate of the world. However, current under- standing of mountain climate and how it will change with further warming of the atmosphere is still very limited. The uncertainty is in large part related to the coarse grid spacing of current climate models (12-50 kilometres in regional and >50 kilometres in global climate models), which are not able to properly represent the complex mountainous orography and related processes. Thus, employing climate models with a kilometer-scale grid spacing provides a promising path. Here, we present simulations using the COSMO (COnsortium for Small-Scale MOdelling) climate model (COSMO-CLM) performed with a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km over all of High Mountain Asia. We evaluate model performance based on preliminary results from case study simulations of different precipitation events and year-long simulations, as well as the added value of kilometer-scale grid spacing. Our analysis lays the foundation for future applications of kilometer-scale runs for decadal simulations of both past and future climate, which comprise the ultimate goal of our project.

How to cite: Collier, E. and Ban, N.: Exploiting kilometer-scale grid spacing for climate simulations over High Mountain Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12750, 2022.

EGU22-13107 | Presentations | AS1.16

Leading Modes of Wind Field Variability over the Western Tibet Plateau 

Jingzhi Wang, Xiao-Feng Li, Shaofeng Liu, Ting Liu, Yongjiu Dai, and Song Yang

As the atmospheric circulation is the only media brings moisture from above the ocean to high mountains on the western Tibet Plateau (TP), the wind variability is of great importance to the water cycle centering at the western TP. This study thereby examines the leading modes of the wind fields over the western TP. The multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis method is employed in this study to detect the dominant wind patterns above the western TP, which extracts the leading modes of the combined meridional and zonal wind variability at 200-hpa level in the region of 22°N-50°N, 50°E-92°E. Here, we find the first leading mode of the combined zonal and meridional wind field in annual mean and in most seasons (spring, summer and autumn) over the western TP show high similarity to the Western Tibetan Vortex (WTV), a large-scale atmospheric pattern recently recognized over the western TP. In winter, the WTV, however, is closer to the second leading mode. By moving the position of the same area surrounding the western TP and re-checking, we find the WTV is tied closely to geographical location of the western TP. In short, the WTV generally represents the first leading mode of the wind field in most seasons over the western TP. This study augments our knowledge on the wind variability over the western TP.

How to cite: Wang, J., Li, X.-F., Liu, S., Liu, T., Dai, Y., and Yang, S.: Leading Modes of Wind Field Variability over the Western Tibet Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13107, 2022.

Many nations declared national lockdowns to limit the spread of COVID-19. This resulted in a dramatic, albeit temporary, reduction of many aerosol precursors and greenhouse gas emissions mainly from transport and industry. We analyse the output of various Earth system models participating in CovidMIP to investigate the impact of COVID-related emission reductions on the near-term climate across the Northern Hemisphere. A key finding is that surface anomalies are associated with a hemispheric-wide upper-tropospheric circulation response, featuring a wave-like pattern in the mid-latitudes and Arctic oscillation-type anomalies in the high latitudes during winter and spring. This is accompanied by changes in the vertical atmospheric temperature structure and consequent meridional shift of the NH jet. These anomalous patterns reverse between 2020 and 2021 and are shown to be consistent with the underlying changes in aerosol emissions. Our findings provide additional evidence to the important role of atmospheric circulation adjustments in realising the aerosol impact, which has significant implications for diagnosing the interplay between anthropogenic forcing and internal variability in the context of climate change.  

How to cite: Fahrenbach, N. and Bollasina, M.: Climate response to COVID-19 emission reductions: A testbed to understand atmospheric circulation adjustments to aerosol forcing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-119, 2022.

Measurement of ambient particulate organic carbon (OC) collected on quartz filters is susceptible to net positive artefacts (overestimation of particulate OC due to adsorption of volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds) while that collected on Teflon filters is susceptible to net negative artefacts (loss of particle OC due to volatilization). In this study, QbQ (Quartz behind Quartz) filter configuration was used for estimating positive artefact, while, QbT (Quartz behind Teflon) filters in conjunction with the QbQ were used to estimate OC volatilization from Teflon filters over a two-year (2019 and 2020) period in Bhopal, one of the eleven COALESCE (Carbonaceous Aerosol Emissions, Source Apportionment, and Climate Impacts) network sites in India. OC and EC measurements by thermal-optical carbon analyses on 748 samples (349 bare quartz (Q), 349 QbQ, and 50 QbT; 24 hours time-integrated) were used in this study. The results showed that the average adsorbed gaseous OC contribution to total OC measured on quartz filters was 17 % (0.9 µg m-3) and 11 % (0.6 µg m-3) during 2019 and 2020, respectively. Organics volatilization loss from Teflon filters as a fraction of measured PM2.5 mass were estimated by applying organic matter (OM)/OC ratios ranging between 1.7 and 2.0 to the OC measured on QbT filters. The annual mean volatilized OC  that was likely re-captured by bare quartz but lost from Teflon filters were 27 % (1.6 µg m-3) and 21 % (1.1 µg m-3) of the total OC measured during 2019 and 2020, respectively. Also, the average PM2.5 lost due to OM volatilization was 8 % (± 4 %) and 6 % (± 5 %) during 2019 and 2020, respectively. Our work shows that organic volatilization artefacts from Teflon filters are likely to be substantial at most locations in India, where temperatures exceed 30 °C for most of the year, and should be accounted for in assessments of gravimetrically determined PM2.5 mass closure using chemical species measured on multiple filter substrates.

How to cite: Bhardwaj, A. and Sunder Raman, R.: Estimation of organic positive artefacts on Quartz filters and volatilization loss from Teflon filters at a COALESCE network site - Bhopal, India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-196, 2022.

EGU22-1128 | Presentations | AS3.5 | Highlight

The turning point of the aerosol era 

Susanne Bauer

Climate change is the result of individual forcing agents changing their radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere over time, and as a result, if positive radiative forcings dominate over negative forcings, the troposphere warms. Over the historical period, based on the CMIP6 simulations ranging from 1850 until 2014, aerosol effects via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, have provided the largest negative forcings compared to all other forcings and played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. Trends in aerosol have been very diverse globally, depending on source and geographical region. While many regions in the Northern Hemisphere have been seeing decreasing emissions since decades, changes in Asia have been more recent, with some countries, such as China have recently reversed their trends and now have decreasing emissions, while other regions, such as India or parts of South Asia, e.g., are still on an increasing trajectory.

Here we study aerosol forcing trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 coupled ocean climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition configuration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based (OMA) aerosol module. The historical (1850-2014) CMIP6 as well as four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) simulations (2015-2100) are analyzed, including the future scenarios, SSP1-2.5, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5.

The main conclusion of this study is that aerosol forcings have reached their turning point, switching from globally increasing to decreasing trends, in the first decade of the 21st century. The turning point in aerosol direct forcing does depend on the individual SSP and model used, however forcings caused by aerosol cloud interactions fall under all studied scenarios into the historical period. The fact that aerosol-cloud forcings dominate in magnitude over direct forcings, leads to the conclusion that the turning point of total aerosol forcings has already been reached. As a consequence, it could be possible that the recently observed global warming which is primarily driven by greenhouse gases has been augmented by the effect of a decreasing aerosol cooling effect on the global scale.

 

 

How to cite: Bauer, S.: The turning point of the aerosol era, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1128, 2022.

EGU22-1252 | Presentations | AS3.5

Development of a dynamic dust-source map for regional dust models based on MODIS NDVI 

Stavros Solomos, Christos Spyrou, Nikos Bartsotas, and Slobodan Nickovic

The proper representation of dust production in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models depends largely on the detailed mapping of the arid areas that act as natural dust sources. The extend and the strength of these sources varies throughout the year based on aridity and vegetation properties. Such changes are monitored from spaceborne platforms (e.g. MODIS NDVI index). In this work we present a methodology for including a dynamic dust source map in the state-of-the-art NMME-DREAM and WRF-Chem models. This time-varying dust source map is based on the 1000m 16-day averaged Normalized Difference Vegetation (NDVI) from the MODIS/Terra instrument. The methodology is first tested with DREAM-NMM over the Arabian Peninsula. The results indicate significant improvement in simulated AODs over AERONET stations compared to the runs driven by the standard static dust source map. The modeled AOD bias in NMME-DREAM is improved from -0.140 to 0.083 for AOD>0.25 and from -0.933 to -0.424 for dust episodes with AOD> 1. Afterwards we apply the above methodology to the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) dust emission module in WRF-Chem model. WRF-Chem has been selected due to its nesting capabilities that permit finer resolution simulations of local scale dust processes. Two sets of simulations have been performed covering the entire Saharan desert, the Mediterranean, Europe and part of the Arabian Peninsula, at a horizontal resolution of 12×12 Km: (1) WRF-Chem control simulations, where dust sources are defined based on the original AFWA code and (2) WRF-Chem experimental simulations where the erodibility of the selected domain is modified based on MODIS NDVI. The selected test period is April 2017 when significant Saharan dust outbreaks took place over the Mediterranean. The simulated AOD from both sets of model runs are validated against AERONET stations. First results verify the successful implementation of the dynamic dust source module in WRF-Chem.  The experimental (NDVI) simulations showed an overall increase in dust loads over the entire domain and an improved performance, mostly in areas close to the Saharan desert.

How to cite: Solomos, S., Spyrou, C., Bartsotas, N., and Nickovic, S.: Development of a dynamic dust-source map for regional dust models based on MODIS NDVI, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1252, 2022.

Extreme air pollution in European cities, especially those in central and eastern Europe is, regardless of strict pollution control measures, still present, representing a large health burden on their inhabitants. Understanding the processes that control or modulate such events over urban areas is therefore crucial. In general, the climate-chemistry interactions over urban areas are complex with multiple feedbacks. In this study, based on two air pollution events with i) high winter PM concentrations and stagnant conditions (14 days in January 2017), ii) elevated ozone levels during a dry sunny summer period (14 days in August 2015), we will examine the mutual role of urban emissions (and secondary pollutants formed from them) and the urban canopy meteorological forcing (UCMF) over central Europe. We performed a series of WRF-Chem simulations with/without urban land-surface (effect of rural-urban transition) and with/without urban emissions, while six large central European cities were considered. Impact on both meteorological conditions and chemical species is examined.

Regarding the impact on meteorological conditions (temperature, windspeed, boundary layer height), we showed that the direct effect of UCMF (1-2K for temperature) is much larger than the secondary effects of the radiative impacts of urban emissions (driven mainly by aerosol effects; 0.1 K for temperature in average). It was also shown that these radiative impacts depend whether UCMF is included or not, with differences up to 2 K in hourly values. The impact on chemical concentrations is driven especially by UCMF causing decrease of PM and increase of ozone while the indirect effects of urban emissions induced meteorological changes are substantially smaller.

 

How to cite: Prieto Perez, A. P., Huszar, P., and Karlicky, J.: Extreme PM and ozone pollution over central Europe: interactions of the urban canopy meteorological forcing and radiative effects of urban emissions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2154, 2022.

EGU22-2749 | Presentations | AS3.5

Examining the climate impacts of future volcanic eruptions 

Man Mei Chim, Thomas J. Aubry, Luke N. Abraham, and Anja Schmidt

Large explosive volcanic eruptions can induce global climate impacts on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. In current climate models, future volcanic eruptions are represented in terms of a time-averaged volcanic forcing that ignores the sporadic nature of volcanic eruptions. This conventional representation does not account for how climate change might affect the dynamics of volcanic plumes and the stratospheric sulfate aerosol lifecycle and, ultimately, volcanic radiative forcing. To account for these climate-volcano feedbacks in climate projections, we perform model simulations from 2015 to 2100 with two key innovations: (1) a stochastic resampling approach to generate realistic future eruption scenarios based on historical volcanic eruptions recorded by ice cores and satellites in the past 11,500 years; and (2) a new modelling framework, UKESM-VPLUME, which couples a 1-D eruptive plume model (Plumeria) with an Earth System Model (UKESM) to consider the impacts of changing atmospheric conditions on eruptive plume heights. Our results show that considering sporadic small-magnitude volcanic eruptions in a future warming scenario can lead to a noticeable difference in global surface temperatures as well as on the time at which temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Our study highlights the importance of considering sporadic eruptions and the changes in eruptive plume heights in a future warmer climate.  The UKESM-VPLUME model framework enables us to quantify the impacts of climate change on volcanic radiative forcing in an Earth System model, which in future research allows us to better evaluate the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions under global warming.

How to cite: Chim, M. M., Aubry, T. J., Abraham, L. N., and Schmidt, A.: Examining the climate impacts of future volcanic eruptions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2749, 2022.

EGU22-3088 | Presentations | AS3.5

Response of atmosphere-ocean circulation to aerosol patterns of the 1970s and 2000s 

Stephanie Fiedler and Dian Putrasahan

The spatial distribution of anthropogenic aerosols was substantially different in the 1970s and 2000s. In the 1970s, a maximum in anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (τa) was situated over the North Atlantic, North America, and Europe. By the 2000s, the τa maximum has shifted to East Asia. That difference in the global pattern of τhas implications for the regional radiative effects and the regional climate. Here, we show how the differences in the global pattern of τa favour changes in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (NASST). To this end, we perform several hundred years of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations with the CMIP6 model MPI-ESM1.2. Our simulations use observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and a prescribed effect on the cloud albedo. All our simulations are sufficiently long to eliminate the impact of model-internal variability on the results.

Contrasting the output of the simulation using τa of the 1970s against the output from the pre-industrial control without τa largely shows the expected decrease in NASSTs, which is due to the surface cooling by the aerosol effects on radiation and clouds. Surprisingly, we also see an unusual warming response in the eastern sub-polar gyre - the same region that became known as the North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH). The described NASST responses reversed as we go from the anthropogenic aerosols of the 1970s to the 2000s, namely a relative decrease of the NASST in the region of the NAWH and an increase away from it. Analysing the atmosphere and ocean dynamics in the model output reveals that these NASST responses are driven by changes in the circulation of the model. The signal in the NAWH is explained by the oceanic meridional heat convergence that is primarily attributed to the gyre heat transport and not the overturning circulation that is often in focus of research. Our diagnostics also show a latitudinal shift of the jet stream over the North Atlantic being closer to the equator in the 1970s than in the 2000s, which is consistent with the response of the sub-polar gyre via the coupling by the wind stress at the ocean surface. Our results imply that the regional reduction in anthropogenic aerosols over the North Atlantic between the 1970s and 2000s favoured (1) a stronger NAWH cooling signal, (2) a stronger Arctic amplification measured by the NASST, and (3) a latitudinal shift of the mean position of the jet stream. Sensitivity tests with the model indicate that more than two-thirds of these signals are associated with aerosol effects on clouds. It highlights the need to better constraint aerosol-cloud interactions for an assessment of circulation responses to changes in atmospheric composition. 

 

Reference:

Fiedler, S., and  Putrasahan, D., 2021: How does the North Atlantic SST pattern respond to anthropogenic aerosols in the 1970s and 2000s? Geophysical Research Letters,  48, e2020GL092142. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092142.

How to cite: Fiedler, S. and Putrasahan, D.: Response of atmosphere-ocean circulation to aerosol patterns of the 1970s and 2000s, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3088, 2022.

EGU22-3455 | Presentations | AS3.5

Impact of secondary organic aerosol on climate over East Asia for 1980–2020 

Seohee Yang, Rokjin Park, Seungun Lee, Duseong Jo, and Minjoong Kim

 Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is produced through photochemical reactions between volatile organic compounds and oxidants in the atmosphere. SOA may have a strong climatic effect because it contains not only colorless carbon, which merely scatters light, but also colored carbon, which can absorb light. However, the climatic effect of SOA is still unclear because the coupled climate−atmospheric chemistry model has limitations in SOA simulation owing to the chemical complexity and high computing power consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the long-term climate effects of SOA through a sophisticated SOA scheme. In this study, we investigate the effect of SOA on climate in East Asia using a long-term simulation by coupling the SOA scheme in the climate−atmospheric chemistry model. We developed an SOA module for the climate model that minimizes chemical processes and computing power consumption through parameterization using empirical parameters. The simulated SOA suitably captured the observed SOA, indicating that the SOA scheme is successfully coupled in the climate−atmospheric chemistry model. We conducted a control and two sensitivity simulations with four ensemble simulations for 19802020 to investigate the effect of whole radiative and only absorptive forcing of SOA on climate in East Asia. Climate change in the control simulation for 19802020 is much closer to reanalysis data than sensitivity simulation, implying a large contribution of SOA on East Asian climate in recent decades. Sensitivity simulation suggests that the light absorption of SOA affects the East Asian climate, causing an increase in temperature at the surface and a decrease in atmospheric stability. Considering that the simulated SOA concentration shows a noticeable increasing trend in East Asia over recent decades, our results imply that SOA has had a significant impact on long-term climate change over East Asia. Therefore, SOA simulation should be included in climate simulations in East Asia.

How to cite: Yang, S., Park, R., Lee, S., Jo, D., and Kim, M.: Impact of secondary organic aerosol on climate over East Asia for 1980–2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3455, 2022.

EGU22-3754 | Presentations | AS3.5

Studies of the effect of stratospheric ozone depletion on tropospheric oxidising capacity over the period 1979-2010 using the UKCA Chemistry-Climate model 

Paul Griffiths, James Keeble, Sebastian Hickman, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N Luke Abraham, John Pyle, and Alexander Archibald

A grand challenge in the field of chemistry-climate modelling is to understand the connection between anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric composition and the radiative forcing of trace gases and aerosols. 

We present an analysis of the trends in tropospheric oxidising capacity in the UM-UKCA from the recent forerunner to AerChemMIP, the Chemistry-Climate Model Intercomparison project, CCMI-1, focusing on the REFC1SD and REFC1 simulations over the recent historical period.  We discuss these trends in terms of OH preconditions, such as photolysis rate and ozone concentration, and the resulting impact on methane oxidation.

Observational data provide important constraints on ozone and its precursors, as well as other radiatively important gases such as methane.  Data are available from a variety of platforms, spanning a range of spatial and temporal scales covering the past 40 years.   Recent work has highlighted the discrepancy in model and observations concerning surface ozone at key stations and the trend in tropospheric ozone levels over the past 50 years.

We will present a comparison between modelled OH and recent observational products, such as flight data from the UK ACSIS  and NASA AToM campaigns to examine how such data may be used to assess and to validate chemistry-climate models such as UKCA, and so improve the uncertainty regarding key forcing agents such as methane, ozone and aerosols. 

How to cite: Griffiths, P., Keeble, J., Hickman, S., Shin, Y. M., Abraham, N. L., Pyle, J., and Archibald, A.: Studies of the effect of stratospheric ozone depletion on tropospheric oxidising capacity over the period 1979-2010 using the UKCA Chemistry-Climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3754, 2022.

EGU22-3778 | Presentations | AS3.5

Arctic temperature responses to East Asian and European anthropogenic organic carbon emissions: impacts of externally vs internally mixed aerosols 

Ulas Im, Kostas Tsigaridis, Annika M.L. Ekman, and Hans-Christen Hansson

Fully coupled equilibrium simulations have been performed using the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Sciences (GISS) Earth system model (GISS-E2.1.2), where the East Asian and European land-based anthropogenic organic carbon (OC) emissions have been perturbed by five and seven times, respectively. GISS-E2.1.2 has been driven by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) anthropogenic emissions. GISS-E2.1.2 simulations have been performed using both the one moment aerosol (OMA) and the Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state (MATRIX) aerosol models, respectively, to quantify the impact of aerosol optical properties and the mixing state assumptions, i.e., external mixing in OMA vs internal mixing in MATRIX. 70 years of baseline and perturbation simulations have been performed for the year 2000 using a 5-member ensemble, where the last 30 years of simulations have been used for analyses.

In the present study, we will present the impact of the aerosol optical properties and mixing state on the OC and black carbon (BC) burdens and lifetimes, as well as the Arctic surface temperature response to the East Asian and European OC emissions in the form of regional temperature potentials (RTP). The preliminary results showed the OMA model simulated a general decrease in the global surface temperatures in response to the East Asian OC emissions, with no statistically significant response over the Arctic, while the MATRIX model showed increases over the globe, including statistically significant increases over the Arctic. Overall, the Arctic RTP in response to the East Asian OC emissions are -0.02 K Tg-1 and +0.00003 K Tg-1 using the OMA and MATRIX aerosol models, respectively.

How to cite: Im, U., Tsigaridis, K., Ekman, A. M. L., and Hansson, H.-C.: Arctic temperature responses to East Asian and European anthropogenic organic carbon emissions: impacts of externally vs internally mixed aerosols, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3778, 2022.

EGU22-4186 | Presentations | AS3.5

The role of an interactive methane cycle in the Earth System 

Fiona O'Connor, Gerd Folberth, Nic Gedney, and Chris Jones

Despite methane’s importance as a greenhouse gas, the Earth System Models that contributed to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) typically prescribe surface methane concentrations - following either historical observations or specified future shared socioeconomic pathways. Here, we make use of a methane emissions-driven configuration of the UK’s Earth System Model to explore the role of an interactive methane cycle, including a wetlands emissions scheme, on the model’s equilibrium climate sensitivity and its transient climate response to changes in carbon dioxide concentration. In addition, climate-driven feedbacks play a fundamental role in determining the climate response to external forcings and this work will investigate the impact of interactive methane on the assessment of relevant Earth System feedbacks.

This presentation will demonstrate the need for including interactive methane in Earth System Models, thereby enabling decision makers to determine the consequences of methane emission reduction policies or climate feedbacks on natural methane sources towards meeting global climate as well as global air quality targets.

How to cite: O'Connor, F., Folberth, G., Gedney, N., and Jones, C.: The role of an interactive methane cycle in the Earth System, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4186, 2022.

EGU22-4264 | Presentations | AS3.5

Aerosol-boundary layer feedbacks triggered by both greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions 

Camilla Weum Stjern, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, and Ignacio Pisso

There is a strong interplay between processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the number of aerosols within it. Stable weather conditions are conducive to less vertical mixing, a shallower PBL and stronger accumulation of pollutants near the surface. In some cases, this can contribute to episodes of severe haze, with serious health impacts. A change in PBL height, however, may also be driven by changes in anthropogenic emissions and their influence on the atmosphere. In this study, we perform idealized simulation with the earth system model CESM2-CAM6, to investigate the effect of various climate drivers (CO2, black carbon and sulfate) on turbulence, planetary boundary layer height, and ultimately near-surface pollution. We find that while emissions of all three climate drivers influence the number of severe air pollution episodes, only CO2 and black carbon emissions do so through an impact on turbulence and PBL height. While black carbon aerosols are known to cause atmospheric heating, increased boundary layer stability and reduced turbulence, we find CO2 to have a similar albeit opposite effect through surface warming. Our results clearly underline the importance of black carbon mitigation for reducing the most severe exposures to air pollution.

How to cite: Stjern, C. W., Hodnebrog, Ø., Myhre, G., and Pisso, I.: Aerosol-boundary layer feedbacks triggered by both greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4264, 2022.

EGU22-6286 | Presentations | AS3.5

Simulation of Biogenic Aerosols in the Boreal Region and their Climatic Impact 

Tero Mielonen, Juha Tonttila, Sami Romakkaniemi, Thomas Kühn, and Harri Kokkola

Biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) constitutes a major fraction of aerosol over boreal forests. As the emissions of BSOA precursors are temperature dependent, changes in temperature are likely to have substantial implications on regional aerosol radiative forcing. In this work, we have used a century long aerosol-climate model simulation to investigate the effect of increasing temperature on organic aerosol mass loadings, and further on aerosol-cloud interaction. The analysis was based on a nudged simulation done with ECHAM6-SALSA covering the period from 1905 to 2010. We limited the analysis to summer months to isolate the temperature dependence of biogenic emissions from the seasonal cycle of vegetation growth. We concentrated on three regions in Russia and three in Canada to analyze the spatial variability of the climatic impacts of BSOA. Our analysis showed that BSOA loadings increased with surface temperature and higher BSOA loads were connected to higher cloud condensation nuclei concentrations in all the regions. However, the relationship between BSOA and cloud optical thickness or cloud droplet size was not that clear in all the regions. These regional differences highlight the need to have accurate aerosol and cloud observations from various locations in the boreal region in order to estimate the climatic significance of biogenic aerosols.

How to cite: Mielonen, T., Tonttila, J., Romakkaniemi, S., Kühn, T., and Kokkola, H.: Simulation of Biogenic Aerosols in the Boreal Region and their Climatic Impact, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6286, 2022.

EGU22-6424 | Presentations | AS3.5

Biogenic aerosol composition on the North Slope of Alaska 

Claire Moffett, Manisha Mehra, Tate Barrett, Matthew Gunsch, Kerri Pratt, and Rebecca Sheesley

As the Arctic continues to change and warm rapidly, it is increasingly important to understand the contribution of biogenic sources to Arctic aerosol. Biogenic sources of primary and secondary aerosol in the arctic will be impacted by climate change, including warming and earlier snow and ice melt, while local emissions and long-range transport can drive changes in anthropogenic aerosol. This study focuses on identifying the contribution of biogenic aerosol to organic carbon (OC) and its seasonal trends through the analysis of aerosol chemical and isotopic composition. Aerosol samples were collected at two sites on the North Slope of Alaska (Utqiaġvik and Oliktok Point) over the summer of 2015 and from June 2016 through August 2017. Organic carbon concentrations correlated well between the sites with high contribution from contemporary sources. Backwards air mass trajectory analysis indicates that source regions are primarily marine in the summertime. Methanesulfonic acid (MSA) was utilized to confirm this marine influence. Secondary organic aerosol confirmed the contribution of terrestrial biogenic sources to organic aerosol at both sites. Strong correlations between ambient temperature and MSA and OC were found during the summer. This study provides a multiyear characterization of organic carbon highlighting the high biogenic influence and indicating areas of interest for future research.

How to cite: Moffett, C., Mehra, M., Barrett, T., Gunsch, M., Pratt, K., and Sheesley, R.: Biogenic aerosol composition on the North Slope of Alaska, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6424, 2022.

EGU22-6446 | Presentations | AS3.5

Climate feedback from vegetation emissions strongly dependent on modelling of atmospheric chemistry. 

James Weber, Scott Archer-Nicholls, N. Luke Abraham, Youngsub Matthew Shin, Paul Griffiths, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine E. Scott, and Alex T. Archibald

Emissions of volatile organic compounds from vegetation (BVOCs) affect climate via changes to O3, CH4, aerosol and clouds. BVOC emissions themselves exhibit dependencies on climate (causing a feedback) and land use change including certain climate change mitigation strategies. Therefore, emissions are predicted to change under future climate pathways yet there remains considerable uncertainty between climate models in the sign and magnitude of the net climatic impact BVOCs (Thornhill et al., 2021). 

One contributor is uncertainty in the description of BVOC chemistry, hitherto minimally assessed in a climate context despite recent scientific advances. In the climate model UKESM1 we evaluate the influence of chemistry by comparing the response to a doubling of BVOC emissions in a pre-industrial (PI) atmosphere using standard and state-of-the-art chemistry mechanisms, the latter featuring recent improvements in chemical understanding. The feedback is positive in both mechanisms with the negative feedback from enhanced aerosol scattering outweighed by positive feedbacks from O3 and CH4 increases and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). We suggest the ACI response, contrary to past studies, is probably driven by reductions in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) via suppression of gas phase SO2 oxidation. 

The net feedback is 43% smaller with state-of-the-art chemistry due to lower oxidant depletion which yields smaller increases in CH4 and smaller decreases in CDNC. Thus, the PI climate in UKESM1 is only about half as sensitive to a change in BVOC emissions with state-of-the-art chemistry, highlighting the important influence of simulated chemistry.  

The role of chemistry is also compared to the inter-model variation in BVOC forcing. We suggest the variation in chemistry between models is likely to play a large role in explaining the variation in the BVOC feedback from O3 and CH4 changes and a smaller role in the aerosol feedback, highlighting the need to improve the descriptions of BVOC chemistry and BVOC-aerosol coupling in tandem to improve assessments of the climatic impact of future BVOC emission changes.

 

 

How to cite: Weber, J., Archer-Nicholls, S., Abraham, N. L., Shin, Y. M., Griffiths, P., Grosvenor, D. P., Scott, C. E., and Archibald, A. T.: Climate feedback from vegetation emissions strongly dependent on modelling of atmospheric chemistry., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6446, 2022.

EGU22-7346 | Presentations | AS3.5

A global climatology (2005 – 2020) of sea salt aerosols using MODIS and OMI satellite data 

Elli Mastakouli (1), Maria Gavrouzou (1), Marios-Bruno Korras-Carraca (1,2), and Nikos Hatzianastassiou (1)

 

Sea salt (SS) are natural strongly scattering coarse aerosols, which yield the largest fraction of aerosol burden over many places on the Earth. They are important to the physics and chemistry of the marine atmosphere, affecting visibility, remote sensing, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality. The production, entrainment, transport and removal of SS aerosol are affected by several meteorological and environmental factors, such as wind speed, surface ocean and air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric stability, precipitation and sea bottom depth and topography. The key meteorological factor that governs the SS production and life cycle is wind, which causes waves to break, forming whitecaps, thus influencing the injection of SS to upper atmospheric levels and their horizontal transport. Although, most of SS aerosols can be transported with atmospheric circulation only to short distances from their sources, the relatively smaller bubbles can live for a longer time in the atmosphere and thus can be transported not only over oceanic, but also over adjacent continental areas. Sea salt aerosols are highly hygroscopic, adsorbing water, and thus behave as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN), affecting the formation, physical and optical properties of clouds. Therefore, their quantification and spatiotemporal variability is essential for the accurate determination of their climatic ole.

In the present study, SS aerosols are detected on a global scale and for the 16-year period from 2005 to 2020, using a satellite algorithm, which is based on aerosol optical properties. This algorithm uses as input daily spectral Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Aerosol Index (AI) or single scattering albedo (SSA) data from MODIS C6.1 and OMI OMAERUV databases, respectively.  It operates on a daily basis and 1°×1° pixel level and detects the presence of SS aerosols by applying suitable thresholds on Ångström Exponent (AE) (calculated using spectral AOD from MODIS) and AI or SSA. The algorithm outputs the absolute and relative frequency of occurrence of SS aerosols, as well as the associated AOD, on a monthly and annual basis. The results are given on a pixel as well as on regional and global scales. By running the algorithm for each year of the study period, the climatological mean values and the interannual variability and trends of the frequency of occurrence and AOD of SS aerosols are estimated.

How to cite: Mastakouli (1), E., Gavrouzou (1), M., Korras-Carraca (1,2), M.-B., and Hatzianastassiou (1), N.: A global climatology (2005 – 2020) of sea salt aerosols using MODIS and OMI satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7346, 2022.

EGU22-7352 | Presentations | AS3.5

The ozone-climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100 

Flossie Brown, Stephen Sitch, and Gerd Folberth

Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone concentrations, known as the ‘ozone-climate penalty’, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and land surface behaviour. In the tropics, the response of surface ozone to a changing climate is relatively understudied, but will have important consequences for air pollution, human and ecosystem health. In this study, we predict the change in surface ozone due to climate change over South America and Africa using data from 3 state-of-the-art Earth system models from CMIP6. To identify the changes driven by climate change alone, we use the difference between the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 7.0 emissions scenario which includes climate change and the same scenario without climate change. The SSP3 7.0 scenario has high emissions of near-term climate forcers and substantial land-use change leading to large temperature changes.

We find that by 2100, there will be an ozone-climate penalty in areas where background ozone is already high, namely urban and biomass burning areas. This includes robust annual mean increases in surface ozone of up to 4 ppb over polluted regions such as the arc of deforestation in the Amazon, with dry season months showing increases of up to 15 ppb. These areas have high NOx emissions from fires, transport or industry. However, models disagree on the role of climate change in remote, low-NOx regions, partly because of uncertainties in NOx concentrations. We also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone-climate penalty in the Congo basin has greater inter-model variation than the Amazon.

We attribute the increase in surface ozone concentration to an increase in the rate of ozone chemical production, which is strongly influenced by the background NOx concentration. As NOx emissions are largely anthropogenic, this suggests that without reduction in emissions, forested areas in urban and agricultural locations are at increasing risk of ozone damage due to climate change. This has implications for the success of secondary forests and other human-modified forests which are mostly located in agricultural areas, deforestation frontiers and forest edges.

How to cite: Brown, F., Sitch, S., and Folberth, G.: The ozone-climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7352, 2022.

EGU22-7666 | Presentations | AS3.5

Nitrate aerosol chemistry in UKESM1.1: impacts on composition and climate 

Catherine Hardacre, Jane Mulcahy, Anthony Jones, and Colin Jones

UKESM1.1 is the latest generation Earth system model to be developed in the UK. It simulates the core physical and dynamical processes of land, atmosphere, ocean and sea ice systems which are extended to incorporate key marine and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. These include the carbon and nitrogen cycles and interactive stratosphere-troposphere trace gas chemistry. Feedbacks between these components that have an important amplifying or dampening effect on the physical climate, and/or change themselves in response to changes in the physical climate are also included. One focus for the development of UKESM1.1 is to include a representation of nitrate aerosol chemistry in the aerosol-chemistry scheme, UKCA-Mode. Nitrate aerosol is a major aerosol component and contributes to air pollution episodes, ecosystem destruction, regional haze, and aerosol-induced climate forcing. In addition, the emission, chemical transformation and deposition processes for nitrate aerosol span land-atmosphere boundaries and can impact feedbacks between these systems. 

A new nitrate aerosol scheme has recently been developed for, and evaluated in, UKCA-Mode. We have successfully implemented this new scheme into the atmosphere only configuration of UKESM1.1 and explored its impact on aerosol, aerosol-cloud interactions and radiative forcing at the global scale. UKESM1.1-nitrate simulates the largest nitrate sources over China, India, Europe, eastern USA and central Africa, and we see corresponding increases in aerosol optical depth (AOD) of up to 30% over these regions. The addition of nitrate aerosol also drives increases in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and reduces the net downward radiation at the top of atmosphere by 0.4 W m-2. The latter is primarily driven by decreases in the outgoing short-wave radiation at the top of atmosphere. Evaluation of simulated nitrate aerosol against observations surface concentrations and AOD from AERONET suggest that while UKESM1.1 captures the spatial distribution of nitrate aerosol, the model may be over-predicting it’s atmospheric loading and consequently impacts on radiative forcing may also be over-predicted. 

The inclusion of nitrate aerosol chemistry in UKESM1.1 is a step-change in the model’s aerosol modelling capability. We will further investigate the role of nitrate aerosol in the Earth system by calculating its contribution to the aerosol effective radiative forcing and through development of the scheme in the fully coupled UKESM1.1 configuration. 

How to cite: Hardacre, C., Mulcahy, J., Jones, A., and Jones, C.: Nitrate aerosol chemistry in UKESM1.1: impacts on composition and climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7666, 2022.

EGU22-9201 | Presentations | AS3.5

Optical properties and dominant types of aerosols in the marine environments surrounding the East Mediterranean - Middle East (EMME) region during the AQABA cruise 

Michael Pikridas, Dimitris Kaskaoutis, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Konstantinos Barbounis, Johannes Lelieveld, and Jean Sciare

This study analyzes the optical properties (scattering, absorption coefficients, single scattering albedo) of aerosols in the marine boundary layer of oceanic areas surrounding the East Mediterranean – Middle East (EMME) region. It aims  to explore the spatio-temporal variability of aerosols, their atmospheric mixing state, sources and dominant types in a way to assess their role on solar radiation and climate. The current analysis uses measurements obtained in the framework of the AQABA (Air Quality and climate change in the Arabian Basin) cruise, during a two month (1st July - 1st September 2017) period. The cruise consisted of a round trip onboard of a research vessel from south of France to Kuwait, crossing the central-east Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf.

Aerosol scattering and absorption coefficients of both submicron (PM1) and supermicron (PM10) particles were measured, using a polar nephelometer (Aurora 4000 Ecotech Inc) and a dual spot aethalometer (Model AE-33, Magee Scientific), respectively. The meterorological and atmospheric conditions during the whole cruise campaign in July-August 2017 were consisted with local and regional climatology, without intense dust outflows from the arid/desert lands in the Middle East. FLEXPART air mass back-trajectories indicated the potential impact of the continental emissions to examined oceanic regions.

Both scattering and absorption coefficients for PM1 and PM10 particles exhibited higher values along the ship cruise in the southern Red Sea, due to continental outflow from east Africa, and in the Persian Gulf due to mixing of natural dust with anthropogenic emissions from the industrial sector and oil refineries. The east Mediterranean exhibited moderate aerosol loading, with intermediate values of scattering Ångström Exponent (SAE) (around 1-1.5), which increased over the Persian Gulf, suggesting enhanced anthropogenic impact against desert dust, while over the Gulf of Aden and the west Arabian Sea, SAE values were very low revealing dust dominance. The absorption Ångström Exponent (AAE) values remained close to 1, indicative of Black Carbon from fossil-fuel combustion, while they increased at regions dominated by dust aerosols, even without high aerosol loading i.e. in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

Using the SAE vs. AAE classification scheme, key aerosol types were identified along the ship cruise. The results showed contrasting aerosol characteristics and types for the various sub-regions. The “BC-dominated” type clearly prevailed over the East Mediterranean and Suez Canal, while coarse particles mixed with BC dominated in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, where the “dust type” also appeared. In the Persian Gulf, the mixing of anthropogenic pollution with marine aerosols, resulted in a dominant “small/low absorption” aerosol type, characterized by fine aerosols with low spectral dependence of the absorption coefficient.   

How to cite: Pikridas, M., Kaskaoutis, D., Mihalopoulos, N., Barbounis, K., Lelieveld, J., and Sciare, J.: Optical properties and dominant types of aerosols in the marine environments surrounding the East Mediterranean - Middle East (EMME) region during the AQABA cruise, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9201, 2022.

EGU22-9271 | Presentations | AS3.5

Impact of droughts and heatwaves on surface ozone over Southwestern Europe 

Antoine Guion, Solène Turquety, Arineh Cholakian, Jan Polcher, Antoine Ehret, and Juliette Lathière

Tropospheric ozone (O3) plays a critical role in maintaining the oxidative capacity of the troposphere. However, as a high oxidant, it also deteriorates air quality at high concentration, inducing adverse effects on human and ecosystem health. Meteorological conditions are key to understand the variability of many surface atmospheric pollutants and of the vegetation state. The variability of O3 concentration is generally well represented in chemistry-transport models (CTM) compared to observations, but the amplitude of the variations are more difficult to simulate (peaks and minima). One factor that has been identified as a possible cause of these uncertainties is the lack of interactions between the biosphere and the atmosphere.

The aim of this study is to quantify the variation of surface O3 over the Southwestern Europe during agricultural droughts, combined or not with heatwaves. Therefore, we analyze both emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and O3 dry deposition velocity during these extreme events, based on the available observations (O3 from the EEA surface network and formaldehyde (HCHO) from OMI satellite instrument) and regional CTM simulations (CHIMERE model), which have been clustered depending on the underlying meteorological conditions. To better understand the observed variations, sensitivity studies are performed implementing the effect of soil dryness and biomass decrease in CHIMERE CTM simulations using online calculation of BVOC emissions from the MEGAN model, during three selected summers: 2012, 2013 and 2014.

Our results show that observed O3 concentration is on average significantly higher during heatwaves (+10µg/m3 in daily mean and +18µg/m3 in daily maximum) and droughts (+5µg/m3 and +9µg/m3), due to an overall O3 precursor emissions enhancement (in agreement with HCHO observations) and O3 dry deposition decrease. However, isolated droughts are characterized by reduced O3 precursor emissions (in agreement with HCHO observations) and reduced O3 dry deposition, compared to normal conditions. Both effects compensate each other with a slight dominance of the latter one, leading to a small but significant increase of observed O3 concentration for the daily maximum only (+4 μg/m3). However, important uncertainties appear to be related to BVOC concentrations, especially about the land cover classification, and to NOX concentrations for which CHIMERE presents limited performance scores of validation. Nevertheless, we emphasize the need for a more dynamical interaction between surface vegetation and hydrology, meteorology and atmospheric chemistry for the simulation of O3 during summers in Southwestern Europe.

Finally, almost half of summer days exceeding the EU standard of O3 for air quality in Southwestern Europe occurred during droughts or heatwaves, on average for the time period 2000-2016. However, this percentage can increase (up to 80%) for exceptionally dry and hot summers, like in 2012. Only 14% of the exceedance days occurred during isolated droughts (summers 2000-2016).

How to cite: Guion, A., Turquety, S., Cholakian, A., Polcher, J., Ehret, A., and Lathière, J.: Impact of droughts and heatwaves on surface ozone over Southwestern Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9271, 2022.

EGU22-9442 | Presentations | AS3.5

Ace in the hole or a house of cards: Will a DeCK experiment help atmospheric chemistry? 

Alexander Archibald, William Collins, Mat Evans, Paul Griffiths, Fiona O'Connor, Oliver Wild, and Paul Young

 Over the past few decades the global atmospheric chemistry modelling community has collectively simulated 100000s of model years, producing petabytes of output, using increasingly complex  chemistry and aerosol schemes and higher resolution models. Yet, our understanding of key aspects of global atmospheric composition change has not evolved at the same pace as the tools we use to study it. Answers to key questions remain as uncertain now as they were two decades ago, including the strength of the methane self-feedback and the past and possible future evolution of tropospheric ozone in response to changing emissions and climate. Here, we will review the progress in understanding that has been generated in model intercomparison experiments (MIPs) from the last three IPCC assessment cycles: ACCENT (AR4), ACCMIP (AR5), and CCMI and AerChemMIP (AR6). We conclude that the aims and experimental design in these MIPs can be improved to reduce  the uncertainty in some of the outstanding questions in atmospheric chemistry. To this end  we propose a new set of experiments, specifically targeted at the atmospheric chemistry modelling community, that will go towards resolving outstanding challenges and integrate the wealth and expertise of chemistry transport and chemistry climate models. These experiments emulate the CMIP DeCK experiments and are designed to provide a continuing legacy for the community in understanding model evolution and process understanding. We aim to elicit  feedback and input into the experimental design from the community  with this presentation. 

How to cite: Archibald, A., Collins, W., Evans, M., Griffiths, P., O'Connor, F., Wild, O., and Young, P.: Ace in the hole or a house of cards: Will a DeCK experiment help atmospheric chemistry?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9442, 2022.

Phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) was the first CMIP to include significant numbers of climate models with interactive aerosols and chemistry. The AerChemMIP project was designed to understand the effects of interactive representation of aerosols and chemistry in model simulations of the past and future climate, and also to take advantage of this to further our fundamental understanding of aerosol and chemistry processes in the climate system.

The four science objectives of AerChemMIP were:

  • How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period?
  • How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and their climate impacts?
  • How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates?
  • How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects?

 

The AerChemMIP project has already led to more than 15 published papers. These advanced our knowledge in: the evolution of aerosol and chemical processes over the historical period, the contributions of these species to past radiative forcing and climate and their effect on future climate, and the impacts of different scenarios for future atmospheric composition and air quality. These have all made significant contributions to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. We show that including interactive aerosols and chemistry in climate models is crucial to simulating past and future climates, provided we understand the behaviour of the fundamental processes.

How to cite: Collins, W.: Aerosols and Chemistry in the CMIP6 models – new science from AerChemMIP, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10047, 2022.

EGU22-10194 | Presentations | AS3.5 | Highlight

Efficient production of carbonyl sulfide in the low-NOx oxidation of dimethyl sulfide 

Anna Novelli, Christopher Jernigan, Charles Fite, Luc Vereecken, Max Berkelhammer, Andrew Rollins, Pamela Rickly, Domenico Taraborelli, Christopher Holmes, and Timothy Bertram

The oxidation of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is the primary, continuous source of stratospheric sulfate aerosol particles, which can scatter shortwave radiation and catalyze heterogeneous reactions in the stratosphere. While it has been estimated that the oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), emitted from the surface ocean, accounts for 8-20% of the global OCS source, there is no existing DMS oxidation mechanism relevant to the marine atmosphere that is consistent with an OCS source of this magnitude. We describe new laboratory measurements and theoretical analyses of DMS oxidation that provide a mechanistic description for OCS production from hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF), an ubiquitous, soluble DMS oxidation product.

The mechanism for OCS formation from DMS + OH is found to proceed through several intermediate stages, including secondary OH-initiated oxidation of hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HOOCH2SCH=O), thioperformic anhydride (O=CHSCH=O), and thioperformic acid (HOOCH=S and HOSCH=O). Several of these reactions are affected by chemical activation, leading to prompt product formation. A theoretical kinetic analysis of these reactions and of conditions representative of the marine boundary layer shows several potential OCS formation channels, which combined lead to a high yield of OCS under OH-initiated oxidation of DMS.

We incorporate this chemical mechanism into a global chemical transport model, showing that OCS production from DMS is a factor of 3 smaller than current estimates and displays a maximum in the tropics consistent with field observations. A critical factor in the conversion of DMS to OCS is the heterogeneous loss of the soluble intermediates, making the OCS yield sensitive to multiphase cloud chemistry and reducing the total OCS formation.

How to cite: Novelli, A., Jernigan, C., Fite, C., Vereecken, L., Berkelhammer, M., Rollins, A., Rickly, P., Taraborelli, D., Holmes, C., and Bertram, T.: Efficient production of carbonyl sulfide in the low-NOx oxidation of dimethyl sulfide, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10194, 2022.

EGU22-10485 | Presentations | AS3.5

Determining aerosol radiative adjustments from UKESM1 with Partial Radiative Perturbation 

Max Coleman, William Collins, Keith Shine, Nicolas Bellouin, and Fiona O'Connor

Radiative adjustments are additional contributions to instantaneous radiative forcing. They have the potential to strongly enhance the initial forcing, for example in the case of aerosol interactions with clouds. We investigate aerosol radiative adjustments in an Earth System model using an offline partial radiative perturbation (PRP) technique.

Radiative adjustments occur via many mechanisms. To understand them requires a variety of modelling techniques to separate individual adjustments. In PRP radiatively important variables simulated by the online model are input to an offline radiative transfer code to calculate the radiative effects of their adjustments. We apply the PRP method to adjustments arising from anthropogenic sulphate and black carbon industrial-era emission perturbations simulated by the UK Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1) using its offline radiative transfer code (SOCRATES) with settings closely matching the online simulations.

This method reduces errors introduced when using PRP with, or radiative kernels generated from, different settings or radiative transfer models to that used in the online climate model. We assess radiative adjustments arising from several factors, including cloud fields, and compare with their adjustments in the online simulations.

How to cite: Coleman, M., Collins, W., Shine, K., Bellouin, N., and O'Connor, F.: Determining aerosol radiative adjustments from UKESM1 with Partial Radiative Perturbation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10485, 2022.

EGU22-10504 | Presentations | AS3.5

Photolysis of biomass burning organic aerosol, chemical transformations and photo-bleaching 

Rachel O'Brien, Hongmin Yu, Natalie Warren, Marley Adamek, Aron Jaffe, Christopher Lim, Jesse Kroll, Chris Cappa, Carolyn Jordan, and Bruce Anderson

Brown carbon (BrC) in aerosol particles and cloud droplets can contribute to climate warming by absorbing solar radiation in the visible region of the solar spectrum. Large uncertainties remain in our parameterization of this warming, in part due to a lack of knowledge about atmospheric lifetimes for the chromophores (the light absorbing structures in BrC molecules). An important removal pathway includes chemical transformations that fragment the chromophore, thus removing its ability to absorb visible light. However, the photochemical loss rates measured in the laboratory do not generally match what is observed in ambient measurements. There are also different amounts of photo-resistant BrC, which is a fraction of the mixture that does not rapidly bleach. An important BrC source in the atmosphere is biomass burning and the overall photochemical decay rates for these emissions are important to quantify to improve our parameterizations of their radiative effects. Here we show results for laboratory studies of FIREX filter samples probing the role of water vapor in photolysis of aerosol particles irradiated on a filter. Kinetic analysis of photo-bleaching in aqueous solutions demonstrates that an intermediate photolysis rate should be included to improve predictions for BrC lifetimes in the atmosphere.

How to cite: O'Brien, R., Yu, H., Warren, N., Adamek, M., Jaffe, A., Lim, C., Kroll, J., Cappa, C., Jordan, C., and Anderson, B.: Photolysis of biomass burning organic aerosol, chemical transformations and photo-bleaching, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10504, 2022.

EGU22-11195 | Presentations | AS3.5

Comparison of the Anthropogenic Emission Inventory for CMIP6 Models with a Country-Level Inventory over China and the Simulations of the Aerosol Properties 

Tianyi Fan, Xiaohong Liu, Chenglai Wu, Qiang Zhang, Chuanfeng Zhao, Xin Yang, and Yanglian Li

Anthropogenic emission inventory for aerosols and reactive gases is crucial to the estimation of aerosol radiative
forcing and climate effects. Here, the anthropogenic emission inventory for AerChemMIP, endorsed by CMIP6, is briefly
introduced. The CMIP6 inventory is compared with a country-level inventory (i.e., MEIC) over China from 1986 to 2015.
Discrepancies are found in the yearly trends of the two inventories, especially after 2006. The yearly trends of the aerosol
burdens simulated by CESM2 using the two inventories follow their emission trends and deviate after the mid-2000s, while
the simulated aerosol optical depths (AODs) show similar trends. The difference between the simulated AODs is much
smaller than the difference between model and observation. Although the simulated AODs agree with the MODIS satellite
retrievals for country-wide average, the good agreement is an offset between the underestimation in eastern China and the
overestimation in western China. Low-biased precursor gas of SO2, overly strong convergence of the wind field, overly
strong dilution and transport by summer monsoon circulation, too much wet scavenging by precipitation, and overly weak
aerosol swelling due to low-biased relative humidity are suggested to be responsible for the underestimated AOD in eastern
China. This indicates that the influence of the emission inventory uncertainties on simulated aerosol properties can be
overwhelmed by model biases of meteorology and aerosol processes. It is necessary for climate models to perform
reasonably well in the dynamical, physical, and chemical processes that would influence aerosol simulations.

How to cite: Fan, T., Liu, X., Wu, C., Zhang, Q., Zhao, C., Yang, X., and Li, Y.: Comparison of the Anthropogenic Emission Inventory for CMIP6 Models with a Country-Level Inventory over China and the Simulations of the Aerosol Properties, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11195, 2022.

EGU22-11354 | Presentations | AS3.5

Light absorption of forest organic aerosol fractions with different polarity 

Sonia Afsana, Ruichen Zhou, Yuzo Miyazaki, Eri Tachibana, Dhananjay Kumar Deshmukh, Kimitaka Kawamura, and Michihiro Mochida

Organic aerosol (OA) is a ubiquitous component of atmospheric aerosol and affects radiative forcing not only by scattering but also by absorbing solar radiation. The light absorption property of OA should vary depending on its composition, which is not well understood to date. Humic-like substances (HULIS), a medium polar part of OA, constitute significant part of water-soluble organic matter (WSOM) and have light-absorbing capacity. In addition, recent studies showed that less polar water-insoluble organic matter (WISOM) absorbed light stronger than WSOM. Knowledge on the light absorption property of all the parts of OA in atmospheric aerosols is important to understand their contribution to aerosol light absorption. In this study, the light absorption property of extractable organics with low-to-high polarity in submicron aerosols collected at a forest site was characterized.

PM0.95 samples (particles with a diameter smaller than 0.95 mm) were collected on quartz filters in Tomakomai Experimental Forest of Hokkaido University, Japan, from June 2012 to May 2013. Organic aerosol components in the samples were extracted and fractionated by the combination of solvent extraction and solid-phase extraction methods. WSOM and WISOM were extracted sequentially by using multiple solvents. HULIS and highly-polar water-soluble organic matter (HP-WSOM) were fractionated from WSOM by solid-phase extraction. The light absorption by the OA fractions were measured using a UV-visible spectrometer. Further, a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer was used to quantify the OA fractions and to analyze the types of generated ions.

The mass absorption efficiency at 365 nm (MAE365) for WISOM was highest among all OA fractions (mean ± standard deviation: 0.37 ± 0.22 m2g-1), followed by the efficiencies for HULIS (0.14 ± 0.09 m2g-1) and HP-WSOM (0.07 ± 0.05 m2g-1). HULIS was shown to be whiter (more transparent) than that reported from previous studies. WISOM was the predominant light-absorbing OA fraction among three OA fractions. The absorption of solar radiation by the OA fractions relative to that by elemental carbon (f) was analyzed, and it showed an increase with the decrease of polarity: on average, the f values were 12%, 8%, and 2%, for WISOM, HULIS, and HP-WSOM, respectively, for the solar spectrum in a range from 300 to 500 nm. HULIS and WISOM showed noticeable seasonal changes in MAE365, which were higher in winter than in summer. Pearson’s correlation analyses between MAE365 and ion groups of OA fractions indicate that organic compounds with N, O, and S atoms may contribute substantially to the light absorption of OA components.

How to cite: Afsana, S., Zhou, R., Miyazaki, Y., Tachibana, E., Deshmukh, D. K., Kawamura, K., and Mochida, M.: Light absorption of forest organic aerosol fractions with different polarity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11354, 2022.

EGU22-12061 | Presentations | AS3.5

The influence of ozone feedbacks on Final Stratospheric Warmings and their surface impact 

Marina Friedel, Gabriel Chiodo, Andrea Stenke, Daniela Domeisen, and Thomas Peter

In the Arctic, the timing of the Final Stratospheric Warming (FW), which marks the transition from winter to summer, is subject to a large interannual variability. Early and late FWs have previously been linked to different mechanism and are associated with different surface responses. While early FWs are predominantly wave driven and followed by a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) at the surface, late FWs are more radiatively driven and not linked to a specific surface pattern. Simultaneously, the time around the vortex weakening in spring is marked by large year-to-year variations in stratospheric ozone concentrations which both respond and feed back into dynamics. A causal connection between stratospheric ozone anomalies and the FW date via ozone-dynamic feedbacks is thus plausible, but still largely unstudied.

 

We investigate the relationship between springtime ozone anomalies and the FW date at both 10 and 50 hPa in Chemistry Climate model simulations with fully interactive and prescribed climatological ozone. For years with low springtime ozone concentrations, we find that the FW at 50 hPa is significantly delayed by 1-2 weeks and is not followed by surface anomalies. In contrast, in years with high springtime ozone concentrations, the 50 hPa FW happens 1-2 weeks earlier than average and precedes a negative AO pattern at the surface. Most importantly, the connection between springtime ozone concentrations and 50 hPa FW date is only present in model simulations where ozone anomalies are radiatively active. In addition, surface patterns after early FWs are enhanced when interactive ozone is included in the simulations. No clear relationship between stratospheric ozone anomalies and 10 hPa FW date is found

 

We identify additional radiative heating/cooling due to high/low ozone anomalies as the main mechanism whereby ozone feedbacks affect the FW date and discuss subsequent impacts on wave dissipation. Following our results, stratospheric ozone anomalies contribute to the occurrence of late and early FWs in spring and significantly enhance surface impacts of early FWs, which emphasizes the importance of interactive ozone chemistry for subseasonal to seasonal predictions.

How to cite: Friedel, M., Chiodo, G., Stenke, A., Domeisen, D., and Peter, T.: The influence of ozone feedbacks on Final Stratospheric Warmings and their surface impact, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12061, 2022.

EGU22-12072 | Presentations | AS3.5

Sequential sampling of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and atmospheric oxidation products in the Sør Rondane Mountains, East-Antarctica. 

Preben Van Overmeiren, Andy Delcloo, Karen De Causmaecker, Alexander Mangold, Kristof Demeestere, Herman Van Langenhove, and Christophe Walgraeve

Antarctica is considered the most pristine environment on Earth. However, a detailed understanding of present-day atmospheric transport pathways of particles and volatile organic compounds (VOC) from source to deposition in Antarctica and the atmospheric reactions they undergo is essential to document biogeochemical cycles. Atmospheric composition plays an important role in present and near-future climate change. Airborne particles can serve as cloud condensation and ice nuclei and have therefore a strong influence on cloud formation and thus also on precipitation. This is of interest in Antarctica, since precipitation is the only source of mass gain to the Antarctic ice sheet which is expected to become the dominant contributor to global sea level rise in the 21st century. VOCs and their atmospheric oxidation products, secondary organic aerosols (SOA’s) can play an important role in this cloud formation process. However, current knowledge on VOCs and on the interaction between clouds, precipitation and aerosols in the Antarctic is still limited, both from direct observations and from regional climate models.

VOCs are traditionally sampled using axial thermal desorption sampling tubes containing a sorbent such as Tenax TA in a passive or active (pumped) fashion. While with passive sampling it is possible to sample over longer periods of time, up to a year in clean air conditions, the temporal information is lost. Because of uncertainties on the sample rate, which is driven by diffusion, obtaining precise air concentrations with passive sampling can be difficult. To sample VOC’s and oxidations products unsupervised and in a remote environment such as Antarctica a new active sequential sorbent tube autosampler was developed and deployed at the atmospheric observatory of the Princess Elisabeth Antarctic research station (71.95° S, 23.35° E, 1390 m asl). The autosampler collected samples from December 2019 to October 2020 and from January 2021 to June 2021. The obtained data is also used to complement and interpret atmospheric aerosol in-situ measurements conducted at the same location. Furthermore, to identify potential source regions, backward trajectory and dispersion modelling using FLEXTRA and FLEXPART will be applied. 

How to cite: Van Overmeiren, P., Delcloo, A., De Causmaecker, K., Mangold, A., Demeestere, K., Van Langenhove, H., and Walgraeve, C.: Sequential sampling of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and atmospheric oxidation products in the Sør Rondane Mountains, East-Antarctica., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12072, 2022.

EGU22-12212 | Presentations | AS3.5

Possible controls on Arctic clouds by natural aerosols from  long-range transport of biogenic emissions and ozone depletion events 

Rupert Holzinger, Oliver Eppers, Kouji Adachi, Heiko Bozem, Markus Hartmann, Andreas Herber, Makoto Koike, Dylan Millet, Sho Ohata, and Frank Stratmann

During the PAMARCMiP 2018 campaign (March and April 2018) a proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) was deployed onboard the POLAR 5 research aircraft and sampled the High Arctic atmosphere under Arctic haze conditions. More than 100 compounds exhibited levels above 1 pmol/mol in at least 25% of the measurements. We used back trajectories and acetone mixing ratios to identify periods with and without long-range transport from continental sources.

Air masses with continental influence contained elevated levels of compounds associated with (aged) biogenic emissions or aged anthropogenic pollution (e.g., methanol, peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN), acetone, acetic acid, methylethylketone (MEK), proprionic acid, and pentanone), but benzene – a marker for primary pollution – was not enhanced. Almost half of all positively detected compounds (>100) in the High Arctic atmosphere can be associated with terpene oxidation products. This constitutes a strong signature of biogenic terpenes and their oxidation products on the High Arctic atmosphere. Many of these compounds will condense and produce biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) – a natural source of organic aerosol (OA) in addition to the aerosols that can be associated with anthropogenic pollution. Therefore, we hypothesize that biogenic SOA exerted significant control over the complex system of aerosols, clouds and longwave radiation in the pre-industrial Arctic winter, even though their role is likely marginal under contemporary polluted Arctic haze conditions. However, biogenic SOA may become an important factor in the future again, if biogenic emissions are enhanced due to climate change and if polluting technologies are (hopefully) phased out in the near future.

During two flights, surface ozone depletion events (ODE) were observed that coincided with enhanced levels of acetone, and methylethylketone. There is evidence that ODEs may also be associated with the emission of biogenic ice-nucleating particles (INP) because the filter samples taken during these two flights exhibited enhanced levels of highly active ice-nucleating particles (INP).

Both these processes, INP production in association with ozone depletion events, and the transport of biogenic SOA could require corrections in estimates of preindustrial radiative forcing (RF). If preindustrial RF has been stronger, the Arctic amplification would be even stronger than currently assumed.

How to cite: Holzinger, R., Eppers, O., Adachi, K., Bozem, H., Hartmann, M., Herber, A., Koike, M., Millet, D., Ohata, S., and Stratmann, F.: Possible controls on Arctic clouds by natural aerosols from  long-range transport of biogenic emissions and ozone depletion events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12212, 2022.

EGU22-12257 | Presentations | AS3.5 | Highlight

Climate change impact on surface ozone based on CMIP6 Earth System Models 

Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Steven Turnock, Vaishali Naik, Sophie Szopa, Aristeidis Κ. Georgoulias, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Philippe Le Sager, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, Konstantinos Tsigaridis, and Twan van Noije

It is presented an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone (O3) discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modeling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. All models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv oC-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions, which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone chemical loss with higher water vapour abudances under a warmer climate. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv oC-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. The individual models show this robustly for south-eastern China and India as well as for regions of Africa but there are inter-model differences in areas within Europe and the United States (US) as well as in South America. The future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

 

The authors from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki acknowledge funding from the Action titled "National Νetwork on Climate Change and its Impacts - CLIMPACT" which is implemented under the sub-project 3 of the project "Infrastructure of national research networks in the fields of Precision Medicine, Quantum Technology and Climate Change", funded by the Public Investment Program of Greece, General Secretary of Research and Technology/Ministry of Development and Investments.

How to cite: Zanis, P., Akritidis, D., Turnock, S., Naik, V., Szopa, S., Georgoulias, A. Κ., Bauer, S. E., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L. W., Keeble, J., Le Sager, P., O'Connor, F. M., Oshima, N., Tsigaridis, K., and van Noije, T.: Climate change impact on surface ozone based on CMIP6 Earth System Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12257, 2022.

EGU22-12426 | Presentations | AS3.5

Role of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange of Ozone in the Earth System 

James Keeble and Paul Griffiths

The transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere is a key contributor to the tropospheric ozone budget. It is estimated that the stratosphere-to-troposphere flux of ozone leads to ~500 Tg of ozone transported into the troposphere each year, which is comparable to the net chemical production of ozone within the troposphere. Using simulations performed with the UKESM1 Earth system model we explore how transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere has changed over the recent past, and explore the drivers of these changes. Additionally, we calculate the contribution of ozone with a stratospheric origin to tropospheric ozone radiative forcing, and explore the impacts of STE on regional air quality.

How to cite: Keeble, J. and Griffiths, P.: Role of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange of Ozone in the Earth System, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12426, 2022.

Anomalous or extreme climate conditions in high northern latitudes are likely to become more frequent and intense for the last several years. Based on the eddy covariance flux data from 2013-2017 collected at a boreal forest and peatland in central Siberia, net CO2 uptake in spring 2015 was the highest compared with the 2013-2017 average because of the anomalous surface warming over the region > 60N. This enhanced spring net CO2 uptake may be associated with more snowfall amount in winter. However, an increased spring net CO2 uptake may be compensated with summertime net CO2 uptake due to the relatively cool summer surface temperature in 2015. Spring 2020 in central Siberia has experienced even more substantial surface warming than in spring 2015, probably associated with excessive spring snowmelt. This suggests that further investigations in the effects of anomalous seasonal climate and snow conditions on net CO2 uptake, photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration are necessary to better understand annual CO2 balance. To characterize carbon fluxes and underlying mechanisms related to climate condition and snow characteristics from 2012-2020, we analyzed upscaling carbon flux dataset based on a random forest model by Jing et al. (2021), satellite-based net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (i.e., Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L4 data), snow characteristics (e.g. freeze-thaw cycle, snow depth), and reanalysis dataset. We will focus on seasonal CO2 uptake, photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration under the anomalous temperature and snowfall/snowmelt conditions, then discuss factors regulating annual net CO2 uptake capacity in boreal forests and peatlands in central Siberia.

How to cite: Park, S.-B. and Park, S. S.: Changes in net CO2 uptake, photosynthesis, and ecosystem respiration and their relationships with climate and snow characteristics in central Siberia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3425, 2022.

EGU22-3537 | Presentations | AS4.4

Peculiarities of the chemical composition of size-segregated atmospheric aerosols sampled at Fonovaya Observatory, West Siberia 

Boris D. Belan, Denis Simonenkov, Mikhail Arshinov, Sergey Belan, Lyudmila Golobokova, Denis Davydov, Georgii Ivlev, Artem Kozlov, Alexandr Kozlov, Natalia Onischuk, Tatyana Sklyadneva, Gennadii Tolmachev, Alexandr Fofonov, and Tamara Khodzher

Aerosols play an important role in radiation processes in the atmosphere, as well as they have a significant impact on global and regional air quality. The process of the atmospheric nanoparticle formation starts from in situ conversion of condensable vapors. Then, the freshly formed nanometer-size clusters begin to grow due to the condensation of nucleating vapours on them and a self-coagulation as well, thus reaching the optically active size ranges. The relative contribution of the above mechanisms can be estimated by the chemical composition of size-segregated particles. Here, we present preliminary results of the analysis of aerosol samples characterizing the inorganic chemical composition of particles ranging from a few nm to 10 mm. The sampling was performed at Fonovaya Observatory (West Siberia) in October 2021 by means of the Model 125R Nano-MOUDI Impactor.

The analysis showed that in the lowest size range (<10 nm), only five ions were detected: SO42-, Cl-, K+, Na+, H+. The growth of the nucleation mode particles to the size range of 60-100 nm was accompanied by increasing content of SO42-, Na+, H+ ions to 50, 37 and 13%, respectively, suggesting the condensation of H2SO4 vapours or the coagulation of particles contained mainly Na2SO4. A content of ammonium ions (NH4+) appeared to be significant only in the accumulation mode size range (0.1-1.0 mm). Nitrates (NO3-) were detected mainly in the Aitken mode particles and then their contribution increases in accumulation and coarse mode ranges.

This work was supported by the RFBR grant No. 19-05-50024 (Microparticles in the atmosphere: formation and transformation in the atmospheric surface layer and in the free troposphere, radiation effects and impact on public health).

How to cite: Belan, B. D., Simonenkov, D., Arshinov, M., Belan, S., Golobokova, L., Davydov, D., Ivlev, G., Kozlov, A., Kozlov, A., Onischuk, N., Sklyadneva, T., Tolmachev, G., Fofonov, A., and Khodzher, T.: Peculiarities of the chemical composition of size-segregated atmospheric aerosols sampled at Fonovaya Observatory, West Siberia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3537, 2022.

EGU22-3737 | Presentations | AS4.4

Differences in the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric aerosol composition 

Mikhail Yu. Arshinov, Pavel Antokhin, Victoriya Arshinova, Boris Belan, Sergey Belan, Lyudmila Golobokova, Denis Davydov, Georgii Ivlev, Artem Kozlov, Alexandr Kozlov, Tatyana Rasskazchikova, Denis Simonenkov, Gennadii Tolmachev, and Alexandr Fofonov

The stratosphere and troposphere are the main layers that define a significant part of the atmospheric processes of our planet. They are demarcated by the tropopause - a layer that has a stable stratification and makes it difficult to exchange air between them. As a consequence, the composition of the air differs slightly in the stratosphere and troposphere. However, the tropopause is not a fully material impermeable surface and therefore the exchange of impurities between both layers occurs. Under the conditions of a changing climate, the composition of the air in the troposphere has also noticeably changed. Therefore, it is important to study the processes of air exchange between the troposphere and stratosphere in a warming climate, especially if we take into account that one of the proposed geoengineering methods assumes to affect climate-forming factors by means of spraying sulphate particles into the stratosphere.

Here, we present the results of airborne measurements of the size distribution and chemical composition of aerosols carried out at the tropopause level and in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) using the 'Optik' Tu-134 aircraft laboratory as a research platform. For the analysis, we have chosen 14 flight segments when the aircraft crossed the tropopause, which level was determined by the temperature gradient (up to 2°C/ km). All the selected profiles of atmospheric constituents were measured over the Russian Arctic seas or coastal areas, since the tropopause in the northern latitudes is much lower than in the middle ones.

Significant differences in the elemental composition of aerosol particles were revealed in the UTLS. Si was dominated in the composition of stratospheric particles, and Fe or Al in the tropospheric ones. The ionic composition of the LS aerosols was predominantly represented by sulfates (SO42-), while tropospheric ones by a group of different ions.

The particle number size distributions (PNSD) in both UT and LS were dominated by the Aitken mode (20-50 nm). At the same time, there were some differences in PNSD – in the stratosphere, the distribution curve was shifted towards larger sizes that suggests the older age of particles measured there. It is also important to note that the nucleation mode particles (3–20 nm) were also detected during some flights in the lower stratosphere. This indicates that, despite the low humidity and the very low content of ammonia here, the processes of the new particle formation (NPF) in the stratosphere were taking place. Taking into account the dominance of SO42- in the ionic composition, one can be assumed that sulfuric acid played a dominant role in the lower stratospheric NPF.

This work was supported by the grant of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement No 075-15-2021-934).

How to cite: Arshinov, M. Yu., Antokhin, P., Arshinova, V., Belan, B., Belan, S., Golobokova, L., Davydov, D., Ivlev, G., Kozlov, A., Kozlov, A., Rasskazchikova, T., Simonenkov, D., Tolmachev, G., and Fofonov, A.: Differences in the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric aerosol composition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3737, 2022.

EGU22-3947 | Presentations | AS4.4

Aerosol pollution in the Moscow megacity environment and its impact on radiative and meteorological properties of the atmosphere 

Nataly Chubarova, Alexander Mahura, Elizaveta Androsova, Alexander Kirsanov, Mikhail Varentsov, Alexey Poliukhov, Pauli Paasonen, and Gdaliy Rivin

Urban aerosol pollution has a significant effect on solar irradiance and meteorological characteristics. Using the two online integrated meteorology – atmospheric composition modelling systems  -  COSMO-Ru2-ART (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling – Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) and Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment – High Resolution Limited Area Model) ) taking into account urbanization effects, we studied the effects of aerosol pollution and its impact on radiative and meteorological characteristics of the atmosphere with focus on the Moscow megacity region (Russia). For the models’ runs, the initial and boundary conditions from the ICON-COSMO-Ru7 and ERA-5  as well as the CAMS redistributed inventory emissions were utilized.

In order to account for the absorbing aerosol properties of the Moscow urban atmosphere black carbon (BC) emissions were applied according to the ECLIPSE emission inventory, which demonstrated a satisfactory agreement in BC/PM10 ratio with experimental data in Moscow.  A series of models’ simulations over an area of 300x300 km  was performed with a 2 km horizontal grid step with the effects of urban areas (building effects/ BEP, anthropogenic heat fluxes/ AHF in Enviro-HIRLAM and TERRA_URB scheme in COSMO-Ru2-ART), and without their consideration. The estimates of urban aerosol content were made for typical conditions in April-May 2019 and during spring of 2020, when lowered anthropogenic emissions were observed in the Moscow region due to strict lockdown conditions of COVID-19 pandemic.

In this study, we accounted for the changes in emissions for the lockdown situation according to the recommendations (Le Quéré et al., 2020), which were mainly in agreement with the official statements.  The estimates of aerosol urban properties were tested against the difference between the AERONET measurements obtained in the Moscow megacity and in a relatively clean region at Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences.  The quality of surface aerosol estimation was verified using the MosEcoMonitoring Agency dataset. The variability of concentration of different aerosol species at ground level and changes in aerosol optical depth and its absorbing properties in the total atmospheric column are discussed.  The various aerosol radiative effects - direct, semidirect and indirect - and the influence of aerosol on selected meteorological characteristics (such as temperature, humidity, cloud cover, etc.) are analyzed. The features of spatio-temporal changes in urban aerosol fields and their effects on meteorology in conditions of elevated and lower emissions of pollutants in typical and lockdown conditions are investigated. 

This study is partially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (grant number 075-15-2021-574) and the Finnish Flagship “Atmosphere and Climate Competence Center” (Academy of Finland grant 337549).  This research was performed according to the Development Programme of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of MSU “Future Planet and Global Environmental Change”. The CSC - IT Center for Science Computing (Finland), is acknowledged for computational resources.

References:

Le Quéré C. et all (2020): Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 647–653.

 

How to cite: Chubarova, N., Mahura, A., Androsova, E., Kirsanov, A., Varentsov, M., Poliukhov, A., Paasonen, P., and Rivin, G.: Aerosol pollution in the Moscow megacity environment and its impact on radiative and meteorological properties of the atmosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3947, 2022.

EGU22-4297 | Presentations | AS4.4

Evaluating methane emissions between 2008 and 2019 in high northern latitudes by using inverse modeling 

Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Jean-Daniel Paris, Marielle Saunois, Mikhail Arshinov, Toshinobu Machida, Motoki Sasakawa, Doug Worthy, and Isabelle Pison

The Arctic is particularly sensitive to global warming and the effects of the increasing temperatures can already be detected in this region by occurring events such as thawing permafrost and decreasing Arctic sea ice area. One of the possible consequences is the risk of enhanced regional greenhouse gas emissions such as methane (CH4) due to the exposure of large terrestrial carbon pools or subsea permafrost which have previously been shielded by ice and frozen soil.

Various sources, both natural and anthropogenic, are presently emitting methane in the Arctic. Natural sources include wetlands and other freshwater biomes, as well as the ocean and biomass burning. Despite the relatively small population in this region, CH4 emissions due to human activities are also significant. The main anthropogenic sources are the extraction and distribution of fossil fuels in the Arctic nations and, to a lesser extent, livestock activities and waste management.

However, assessing the amount of CH4 emissions in the Arctic and their contribution to the global budget still remains challenging due to the difficulties in carrying out accurate measurements in such remote areas. Besides, high variations in the spatial distribution of methane sources and a poor understanding of the effects of ongoing changes in carbon decomposition, vegetation and hydrology also complicate the assessment.

Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce uncertainties on methane emissions in high northern latitudes. In order to achieve that, an inverse modeling approach has been implemented by using observational data sets of CH4 concentrations obtained at 42 surface stations located in different Arctic regions for the period from 2008 to 2019, the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART, as well as available bottom-up estimates of methane emissions provided by process-based surface models and CH4 emission inventories. The results have been analysed with regards to seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations, spatial differences and trends over the period of study.

How to cite: Wittig, S., Berchet, A., Paris, J.-D., Saunois, M., Arshinov, M., Machida, T., Sasakawa, M., Worthy, D., and Pison, I.: Evaluating methane emissions between 2008 and 2019 in high northern latitudes by using inverse modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4297, 2022.

EGU22-4365 | Presentations | AS4.4

Linking the measurement data of the substance flows of the SMEAR Estonia measuring station with the place of growth 

Joonas Kollo, Allar Padari, Alisa Krasnova, Ahto Kangur, and Steffen Noe

The SMEAR Estonia is an important step towards understanding how forest ecosystem and the atmosphere affect each other. The station provides long-term continuously measured eddy-covariance CO2 flux data. Parameters such as wind speed and direction are not controllable by human, but forest management methods are, thus the flux tower helps to assess how human activities affect forest ecosystem-atmosphere relationship as well as to assess natural processes. In this study, the footprint for years 2015–2020 was calculated with Kljun model according to wind speed and direction. Measurements were taken from 30 m and 70 m height. Data was obtained by continuous high frequency (10 Hz) measurements by the eddy-covariance method and averaged over half-hour intervals. Results showed that the footprint area measured from 30 m over six-year period differed only by 5%. From 70 m this difference was only 1.2% over the six-year period. Average area for both 30 m and 70 m FFP was 61,5 ha and 4029,7 ha respectively. The growing stock of the forest was affected by forest management, but in general it grew by 3,2% for 30 m FFP. The main tree species growing in the area of the footprint are Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Silver birch (Betula pendula) with some small amount of aspen and alder species. The dominant wind directions were ranging from west to south in 2015–2017 and in 2018–2020 from south-west to south-east. The footprint area is affected mainly by wind speed and direction, and by forest management activities like harvesting and clear-cutting. Such measurements help to understand how human activity and natural processes affect formation of the footprint.

How to cite: Kollo, J., Padari, A., Krasnova, A., Kangur, A., and Noe, S.: Linking the measurement data of the substance flows of the SMEAR Estonia measuring station with the place of growth, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4365, 2022.

EGU22-4792 | Presentations | AS4.4

Integrated modelling for assessment the influence of aerosol feedbacks on a regional scale as a result of accidental wildfires and land cover changes in Ukraine 

Mykhailo Savenets, Larysa Pysarenko, Svitlana Krakovska, and Alexander Mahura

The study presents the analysis of regional atmospheric condition changes in Ukraine caused by direct and indirect aerosol effects performed by a series of simulations using the Environment – High Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM). The research is based on two case studies. The first case study includes a severe wildfire event in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (northern part of Ukraine) which was observed in April 2020. The second case study analyzed the influence of hypothetical total deforestation in Ukraine during the extreme heat wave and heavy rain episodes in August 2010. Enviro-HIRLAM model was run for the domain with 15-km resolution and further downscaling to 5 and 2-km resolution. The simulations include 4 running modes: reference run with no aerosol effects (CTRL); including direct (DAE), indirect (IDAE) and both (DAE+IDAE) aerosol effects. The study analyzes the aerosol impact on thermal and moisture regimes at the surface and on the model levels up to 5 km above the ground. It is emphasized the role of anthropogenic and natural processes at the surface (like wildfires, land cover changes, etc.) on the enhancing of aerosol effects during extreme and unfavorable weather conditions. This study is supported by the grants of HPC-Europa3 Transnational Access Programme for projects HPC17TRLGW IMA-WFires “Integrated Modelling for Assessment of Potential Pollution Regional Atmospheric Transport as Result of Accidental Wildfires” and HPC17ENAVF MALAWE “Integrated Modelling and Analysis of Influence of Land Cover Changes on Regional Weather Conditions/ Patterns”. The CSC - IT Center for Science Computing (Finland) is acknowledged for computational resources.

How to cite: Savenets, M., Pysarenko, L., Krakovska, S., and Mahura, A.: Integrated modelling for assessment the influence of aerosol feedbacks on a regional scale as a result of accidental wildfires and land cover changes in Ukraine, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4792, 2022.

EGU22-4895 | Presentations | AS4.4 | Highlight

CLIMATE-ORIENTED TRAININGS in the field of Climate Services, Climate CHANGE ADAPTATION and Mitigation 

Valeriya Ovcharuk, Alexander Mahura, Tetiana Kryvomaz, Enric Aguilar, Jon Olanо, Inna Khomenko, Oleg Shabliy, Larisa Sogacheva, Putian Zhou, Antti Mäkelä, Svitlana Krakovska, Hanna Lappalainen, Sergiy Stepanenko, Katja Lauri, Laura Riuttanen, Svyatoslav Tyuryakov, and Irina Bashmakova

The Erasmus+ ClimEd (2021-2023; http://climed.network; “Multilevel Local, Nation- and Regionwide Education and Training in Climate Services, Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation”) project is aimed at the development of competency-based curricula for continuous comprehensive training of specialists in the field of climate services and additional education in climate change for decision-makers, experts in climate-dependent economic sectors, and public.

Some of the goals and objectives of the project are closely related to the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX; www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex), and especially with multi-disciplinary, -scale and -component study climate change at resolving major uncertainties in the Earth system science and global sustainability issues.

The ClimEd Trainings (http://climed.network/events/climed-trainings), in total 7, will be carried out during the project and will be focused on training the faculty/ teaching/ research staff and postgraduates at the ClimEd partner institutions and collaborating organizations in advanced educational and information-and-communication technologies for building a flexible multi-level integrated practice-based education system in the field of Climate Services, Climate Change  Adaptation and Mitigation.

Due to COVID pandemic situation, the originally planned face-to-face first trainings (in Estonia, Ukraine, and Finland) were converted into online training. Such online trainings were divided into 3 consecutive blocks: (i) online lecturing, (ii) home-work-assignments (HWAs) as group projects with established internal communication between the member of the groups and with an option of zoom-consulting during remote work, and (iii) final oral presentations (projects’ defenses) of HWAs with evaluation and feedback, discussions, and awarding certificates (corresponding to ECTS credits) with achieved learning outcomes. The majority of HWAs are based on the ClimEd main themes linking climate change vs. agriculture, energy, technical design and construction, urban economy, water management, health care; although other themes of interest can be selected by groups. Trainings also include questionnaires distributed among participants: evaluation of the training, and evaluation of own learning outcomes. Technically, the Moodle system, Zoom-hosting, e-evaluations, etc. are actively utilized in such trainings. All materials of the trainings are always publicly accessible online at the ClimEd project website as well as long-term stored at the Moodle system for each training.

The outcomes/ summaries – including the lecture topics and learning outcomes, information resources, themes of group projects, feedbacks and training results, established network-community of the training participants (trainees and lecturers and teachers of HWAs) – of the online training approach will be presented for the ClimEd Trainings. Summaries are available for: 1st training “Competence-Based Approach to Curriculum Development for Climate Education”; 19 Apr – 12 May 2021; http://climed.network/events/climed-trainings/climed-training-1-online); 2nd – “Adaptation of the Competency Framework for Climate Services to conditions of Ukraine” (29 Jun – 26 Aug 2021; http://climed.network/events/climed-trainings/climed-training-2-online); 3rd – “Digital tools and datasets for climate change education” (26 Oct – 12 Nov 2021; http://climed.network/events/climed-trainings/climed-training-3-online); and 4thDeveloping learning courses in climate services considering needs of different users” (7–11 February 2022; http://climed.network/events/climed-trainings/climed-training-4).

How to cite: Ovcharuk, V., Mahura, A., Kryvomaz, T., Aguilar, E., Olanо, J., Khomenko, I., Shabliy, O., Sogacheva, L., Zhou, P., Mäkelä, A., Krakovska, S., Lappalainen, H., Stepanenko, S., Lauri, K., Riuttanen, L., Tyuryakov, S., and Bashmakova, I.: CLIMATE-ORIENTED TRAININGS in the field of Climate Services, Climate CHANGE ADAPTATION and Mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4895, 2022.

EGU22-4945 | Presentations | AS4.4 | Highlight

Assessing the impact of observation networks and data mobility for their impacts on socio-economical activities in the Arctic – Perspectives by the iCUPE project 

Steffen M. Noe, Alexander Mahura, Tuukka Petäjä, Ksenia Tabakova, Hanna K. Lappalainen, and Dataset Leaders

Rapid changes due to climate warming in the Arctic environment call for action and the implementation of sustainable measures in a scientific data driven policy process.

 

Assessment of available data on the Arctic and Antarctic regions and their linkage to Essential Variables (EV) and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) allow the implementation of scientific data driven policies and socio-economic activities mechanisms towards sustainable development. In the iCUPE (Integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments; www.atm.helsinki.fi/icupe) project (Petäjä et al., 2020), multiscale datasets ranging from in-situ small local scale to remotes sensing satellite data operating on global scale were generated and made public.

iCUPE developed further several data pilot applications that included flow of different data sources towards public services. Inclusion of indigenous knowledge and feedback by data users were tested (Noe et al., 2021)

 

The iCUPE datasets were used to evaluate impacts on social-economical activities in the Arctic and are well-linked to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as #3, 4, 11, 13, 14, 15, and 17. In particular, DSs (on aerosols, including black carbon, physico-chemical properties and spatio-temporal variability based on ground-based, satellite and unmanned aerial systems observations) show links to atmospheric pollution and climate change. These DSs allow to evaluate impact on environment and population (especially, indigenous people) health for the Arctic States as well as long-range transport/ deposition of pollution to remote populated regions. Hence, the evaluation results will be useful for the climate adaptation and changing social lifestyle and economic activities in Arctic regions. The DSs (on atmospheric mercury observations) show links to atmospheric pollution and deposition on underlying surfaces, and hence, the contamination of seas/lands. This helps to estimate impact on fishery and reindeer herding economical activities, and hence, impact on environment and population health through food chains. The DSs (emerging organic contaminants in water) show a situation on contamination of seas, which is important for evaluating the impacts on fishery industry, and hence, impact on population health and well-being through food chains and prosperity. The DSs (on emerging organic and anthropogenic contaminants in snow) underline contamination of food supply for reindeers, which is valuable for evaluating impact on economic activities and style of the life of indigenous people as well as impact on population health through food chains. The DSs (time series of lake size changes in Northeast Greenland) show changes in water resources availability, which can influence the hydropower plans of the Greenlandic government to foster economic development in Greenland.

 

 

Petaja, T., et al. (2020): Overview: Integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments (iCUPE) - concept and initial results. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 20, 14, p. 8551-8592.

Noe S.M. et al. (2021): Arctic observations and Sustainable Development Goals - Contributions and examples from ERA-PLANET iCUPE data. Environmental Science and Policy, Manuscript in Review.

How to cite: Noe, S. M., Mahura, A., Petäjä, T., Tabakova, K., Lappalainen, H. K., and Leaders, D.: Assessing the impact of observation networks and data mobility for their impacts on socio-economical activities in the Arctic – Perspectives by the iCUPE project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4945, 2022.

EGU22-5714 | Presentations | AS4.4

The Space Weather events those accompany the long-lived macrosynoptic processes 

Olga Stupishina and Elena Golovina

The presented work evolves the study of the Space Weather state before and during the macrosynoptic processes movements in North Atlantic and Eurasia extratropical latitudes. The atmosphere circulation types – E-type (east transport), W-type (west transport) and C-type (meridional transport) – were investigated by their periods of the conservation:  (5-7) days which corresponds to the Natural Synoptic Period (NSP) in Europe region and the Long Period (LP) which endured more than 10 days.

The investigation time interval: 1.01.2007 – 1.01.2014. That corresponds to: the Solar Activity (SA) 23-d cycle's fall branch, the SA minimum, the rise branch of the 24-th SA cycle, the maximum of 24-th SA cycle.

Space Weather parameters were: global  variations of SA parameters; daily characteristics of the SA flare component in various bands of the electromagnetic spectrum; variations of daily statistics of Interplanetary Space characteristics in the near-Earth space; variations of daily statistics of Geomagnetic Field characteristics.

Results:

1. LP-E-type occurs 56% of all LP when LP-W-type occurs 36% and LP-C-type occurs 8%.

2. The concrete Space Weather parameters which behavior differences the moments of LP-beginnings from the moments of NSP-beginnings for the E-type circulation (here we are presenting only results for the most frequent macrosynoptic type) are follows:

  • All daily indexes of SA global variations – the integral solar radioflux on the wavelength of 10.7cm, the solar spot number, the summarized spot area on the solar disk, the number of new Active Regions on the solar disk.
  • The daily statistics (maximum, mean, range, standard deviation) of α-particle fluxes with the energy of 4-10 MeV. 
  • The daily statistics (maximum, mean, range, standard deviation) of electron fluxes of energy that is greater than 2 MeV. 
  • The daily statistics (maximum, mean, range, standard deviation) of the intensity of the whole magnetic field vector in the near-Earth space.
  • The daily statistics (maximum, mean, range, standard deviation) of the intensity of the geomagnetic field that was measured at different terrestrial latitudes.

3. The most prominent events we can see in the behavior of the α-particle fluxes and in the behavior of the whole magnetic field vector in the near-Earth space those went on the background of the significant changing of global SA-indexes.

We suppose the complex impact the mentioned above Space Weather characteristics on the terrestrial atmosphere.

Results may be useful for the forecast of atmosphere response to the space impact.

How to cite: Stupishina, O. and Golovina, E.: The Space Weather events those accompany the long-lived macrosynoptic processes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5714, 2022.

EGU22-6436 | Presentations | AS4.4

West-Siberian meridional carbon transect: the concept 

Pavel Smirnov and Andrey Tolstikov

Last year, in Russia there was started a new government long-term initiative, that aims reduction for Russian greenhouse gas emissions by up to 70 percent compared to the 1990 level in less than next 10 years (by 2030).

On the one hand such ambitious goal to includes massive technical and industrial modernization and other hand – supposed to provide valid, verified and globally recognized scientific data on the runoff and emission of greenhouse gases from ecosystems all around Russia. Thus, a large-scale program for the development of carbon stations has started with running of carbon polygons, which should combine both research-methodological and educational functions, and, eventually, contribute to the achievement of the specified state objective. The educational function of the polygons includes training personnel with interdisciplinary competencies to work on "carbon" topics, including the highest qualifications.

Starting to design and equip the first running polygon in the Tyumen region (by University of Tyumen), we initially stated concept of creating an ecological and climatic transect across the whole of Russia from north to south. The general idea is connect the new carbon polygon near Tyumen with carbon monitor infrastructure in proposed polygons and stations in Tobolsk and Ishim, Khanty-Mansiysk (Mukhrino) and Yamalo-Nenets (Labytnangi)Autonomous Disctricts. With potential sites in partners, that University of Tyumen has in Central Asian republics, there are prospect to continue this meridional transect further to the south. And in this case, we have the prospect of getting a global-scale monitoring system in the center of Eurasia across all natural zones from north to south, that provide massive raw data set for global observation system.

How to cite: Smirnov, P. and Tolstikov, A.: West-Siberian meridional carbon transect: the concept, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6436, 2022.

EGU22-6967 | Presentations | AS4.4

Seasonal dynamics and toxicity of PM-bound PAHs in northernmost European megacity. 

Marina Chichaeva, Yuliya Zavgorodnyaya, Olga Popovicheva, Arina Semenova, and Nikolai Kasimov

Cities are prone to air pollution caused by emissions associated with population activities such as road transport, industry, heating, and residential sector. The concentration and chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) is of particular importance as the parameter of air quality measurements. Concerning impact on urban air quality and hazardous health effects accompanied by the capacity for long-range atmospheric transport, polyromantic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are numbered among priority pollutants in the national and international regulatory activities. Seasonal dynamics and toxicity of PM-bound PAHs in a northern context attract the particular attention.

Sampling and PM10-bound PAHs characterization were carried out in urban background of Moscow megacity, the largest as well as the northernmost megacity in Europe. Composition of 16 PAHs which are numbered in the EPA list of ‘Priority Pollutants’, were considered for three periods: spring (from mid-April to the end of May, when a positive average daily temperature is set in Moscow), autumn (from the end of September to the end of November), and winter (from early December to mid-January, when the average daily temperature reliably drops below zero). The sum of 16 PAHs had ranged over the observation period from 0.4 to 10 ng/m3, with increase of the median concentration from spring and autumn to winter due to the maximum anticyclonic atmospheric circulation and emissions from thermal power plants in winter as well as the transition of PAH from PM to the gas phase with an increase of the temperature in spring. Average PAH toxic equivalent (TEQs) were higher in winter and autumn than those in summer and spring. Increased concentrations for BaA, BaP,BgP, Cry, BbF due to high wind speeds indicate a distant source and a long-range transfer of pollutants. While the presence of maxima of concentrations at medium or low wind speeds can serve as an indication of the proximity of sources, as well as the weakening of atmospheric circulation, which leads to accumulation of pollutants (ANT, PYR, BbF, DiBaA, BLU, PHE, BkF) in the measurement area.

Based on the statistical processing, high (> 0.75) positive correlations for all individual PAHs were obtained in autumn and winter. This indicates the high stability and the absence of significant transformation of PAH due to physical and photochemical reactions. At higher temperature in spring compared to autumn-winter, low correlations for phenanthrene was observed due to evaporation of the lowest molecular weight PAHs could proceed more intensively on the aerosol surface.

This work is supported by the Russian Government, through its grant number 14.W03.31.0002.

 

 

How to cite: Chichaeva, M., Zavgorodnyaya, Y., Popovicheva, O., Semenova, A., and Kasimov, N.: Seasonal dynamics and toxicity of PM-bound PAHs in northernmost European megacity., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6967, 2022.

EGU22-7090 | Presentations | AS4.4

Elucidating the impact of Siberian biomass burning aerosol on the radiative balance in the Arctic: model analysis constrained by observations 

Igor B. Konovalov, Nikolai A. Golovushkin, Matthias Beekmann, Guillaume Siour, Tatyana B. Zhuravleva, Ilmir M. Nasrtdinov, Victor N. Uzhegov, Irina N. Kuznetsova, Murat I. Nakhaev, Solène Turquety, and Florian Couvidat

Siberian wildfires inject into the atmosphere huge amounts of aerosol particles, part of which are transported into the Arctic. Once in the Arctic, biomass burning (BB) aerosol can contribute to the radiative balance and affect the climate processes in different ways, including the absorption and scattering of the solar radiation, changes in the albedo of the ice/snow surface cover, modification of the optical properties of clouds. However, quantitative knowledge of the role of Siberian BB aerosol in the Arctic is deficient, reflecting major uncertainties in available model representations of its emissions, chemical composition, and optical properties.

In this study, the CHIMERE v2020 chemistry transport model (https://www.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/) coupled with the WRF meteorological model was used to examine the effects of aerosol-radiation interactions (the direct aerosol radiative effect and the associated semi-direct effects) due to the transport of BB plumes from Siberia into the Eastern Arctic. The analysis features the use of satellite and in situ observations to constrain the BB aerosol sources and optical properties. Furthermore, the simulations brought together new model representations of the optical properties and aging of the organic component of Siberian BB aerosol [1,2], which were also constrained by satellite and ground-based observations, and recent findings from aerosol chamber experiments [3]. The study focuses on the radiative effects associated with the strong fires that occurred in Siberia in July 2016.

It is found that weakly-absorbing Siberian BB aerosol exerted a strong cooling effect in the near-surface layer of the atmosphere and at the top of the atmosphere over large areas on land in the Eastern Arctic. However, the aerosol radiative effects over the ocean were found to be of a mixed character, which is partly due to semi-direct effects triggered by the aerosol absorbing components (black carbon and brown carbon). Overall, our study results indicate that direct and semi-direct radiative effects caused by Siberian BB aerosol constitute a significant part of the evolving natural baseline of the Arctic radiative budget and need to be taken into accounts in analyses and predictions of the Arctic amplification of climate change.    

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation under grant agreement No. 19-77-20109 (modeling light-absorbing aerosol components), RFBR and CNRS according to the research project № 21-55-15009 (modeling light-scattering aerosol components).

References:

  • Konovalov, I.B., Golovushkin, N.A., Beekmann, M., and Andreae, M.O.: Insights into the aging of biomass burning aerosol from satellite observations and 3D atmospheric modeling: evolution of the aerosol optical properties in Siberian wildfire plumes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-357-2021, 2021.
  • Konovalov, I.B., Golovushkin, N.A., Beekmann, M. Panchenko, M.V.; Andreae, M.O.: Inferring the absorption properties of organic aerosol in biomass burning plumes from remote optical observations, Atmos. Meas. Tech., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6647-2021, 2021.
  • Kozlov, V.S., Konovalov I.B., Panchenko, M.V., Uzhegov, V.N., et al.: Dynamics of aerosol absorption characteristics in smoke combustion of forest biomass burning at the Large Aerosol Chamber at the stages of generation and aging in time. Proc. SPIE, https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2603496, 2021.

How to cite: Konovalov, I. B., Golovushkin, N. A., Beekmann, M., Siour, G., Zhuravleva, T. B., Nasrtdinov, I. M., Uzhegov, V. N., Kuznetsova, I. N., Nakhaev, M. I., Turquety, S., and Couvidat, F.: Elucidating the impact of Siberian biomass burning aerosol on the radiative balance in the Arctic: model analysis constrained by observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7090, 2022.

EGU22-8036 | Presentations | AS4.4

Measurement report: Disentangling methane and other trace gases sources and transport across the Russian Arctic from aircraft measurements 

Clement Narbaud, Jean-Daniel Paris, Antoine Berchet, Sophie Wittig, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Nédelec, Boris Belan, Mikhail Arshinov, Denis Davydov, Aleksandr Fofonov, and Artem Kozlov

A more accurate characterization of the sources and sinks of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the vulnerable Arctic environment is required to better predict climate change. A large-scale aircraft campaign took place in September 2020 focusing on Siberian coast. CH4 and CO2 were measured in situ during the campaign and form the core of the study. Measured ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) are used here as tracers. Compared to the reference (i.e., the seasonal value at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, US), median CH4 mixing ratios are fairly higher (1890-1969 ppb vs 1887 ppb) while CO2 mixing ratios from all flights are lower (408.09-411.50 ppm vs 411.52 ppm). We also report on 3 case studies. Our analysis suggests that during the campaign the European part of Russia’s Arctic and Western Siberia were subject to long-range transport of polluted air masses, while the East mainly was under the influence of local emission of greenhouse gases. The relative contributions of anthropogenic and natural sources of CH4 in Siberia are simulated using the Lagrangian model FLEXPART in order to identify dominant sources in the boundary layer and in the free troposphere. In western terrestrial flights, air masses composition is influenced by from wetlands and anthropogenic activities (waste management, the fossil fuel industry and to a lesser extent the agricultural sector), while in the East, emissions are dominated by freshwaters, wetlands, and the oceans, with an ambiguous contribution from likely anthropogenic sources related to fossil fuels. Our results generally highlight the importance of the contribution form freshwater and oceans emissions and, combined with the large uncertainties associated with them, suggest that the emission from these aquatic sources should receive more attention in Siberia.

How to cite: Narbaud, C., Paris, J.-D., Berchet, A., Wittig, S., Saunois, M., Nédelec, P., Belan, B., Arshinov, M., Davydov, D., Fofonov, A., and Kozlov, A.: Measurement report: Disentangling methane and other trace gases sources and transport across the Russian Arctic from aircraft measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8036, 2022.

EGU22-9011 | Presentations | AS4.4

Validation and adaptation of WRF-Chem numerical model to simulate CO2 transport in Saint-Petersburg 

Georgy Nerobelov, Yuri Timofeyev, Stefani Foka, Juha Hatakka, Yana Virolainen, and Sergei Smyshlyaev

Alteration of the Earth's radiation balance due to the rise of the content of the main anthropogenic greenhouse gas СО2 in the atmosphere leads to the changes of the planet's climate. It is known that megacities contribute approximately 70% to the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions playing a critical role in the climate changes. Several methods of emission estimation are being developed to control commitments undertaken by different countries on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One of such methods - inverse modelling - combines accurate observations of the increase of gas` content, a priori anthropogenic emissions and numerical modelling of atmospheric transport to define gas` sources and correct emission data used in the simulation. Several studies demonstrated that the inverse modelling of CO2 anthropogenic emissions highly depends on the modelling of CO2 transport in the atmosphere. Therefore a careful validation of such models must be carried out before CO2 emissions estimation by the inverse modelling. In the current research we studied capabilities of numerical weather prediction and chemistry dynamic model WRF-Chem to simulate CO2 transport on the territory of Saint-Petersburg (Russia) using observations of near-ground and total CO2 content. 

How to cite: Nerobelov, G., Timofeyev, Y., Foka, S., Hatakka, J., Virolainen, Y., and Smyshlyaev, S.: Validation and adaptation of WRF-Chem numerical model to simulate CO2 transport in Saint-Petersburg, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9011, 2022.

EGU22-9018 | Presentations | AS4.4

Analysis of Saint-Petersburg`s CO2 anthropogenic emissions estimation by differential spectroscopy method 

Yury Timofeyev, Georgy Nerobelov, and Anatoliy Poberovskiy

Needs in obtaining independent and high-quality information on anthropogenic emissions of important for climate and ecology gases led to the development of spectroscopic (ground-based and satellite) methods of the emission determination. This challenge can be reduced to two sequential inverse problems - the inverse problem of atmospheric optics and atmospheric transport. Here we studied the merits and disadvantages of differential IR methods for the emissions estimation. Also we investigated the main factors determining their errors such as:

  • Quality and number of the observations of spatio-temporal distribution of gases studied
  • Capabilities of the numerical models to simulate atmospheric transport
  • Spatial and temporal resolutions of emissions estimated
  • etc.

In the current study integral anthropogenic CO2 emissions of Saint-Petersburg were determined using observation data of the city`s anthropogenic contribution to the gas content. In addition we implemented a new approach of inverse problem solution which was based on a priori CO2 emission data and scale coefficients applied only to the city`s areas covered by the observations. Integral anthropogenic CO2 emissions obtained were in a range from approximately 52 to 72 Mt/year. These emissions are significantly higher than inventory-based estimates which constitute ⁓30 Mt/year. Nevertheless, the minimal value of the range (~52 Mt/year) is lower by ~21% than emissions which we calculated earlier also using observations (~65 Mt/year).

How to cite: Timofeyev, Y., Nerobelov, G., and Poberovskiy, A.: Analysis of Saint-Petersburg`s CO2 anthropogenic emissions estimation by differential spectroscopy method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9018, 2022.

EGU22-9502 | Presentations | AS4.4 | Highlight

Summary of integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments (iCUPE) project results 

Tuukka Petäjä and the iCUPE project team

The Horizon-2020 iCUPE (Integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments; https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/icupe) was a science driven the ERA-PLANET (European network for observing our changing planet; http://www.era-planet.eu) Programme Thematic Strand-4 project. The iCUPE overall aim was to evaluate and present a holistic understanding of impacts of various increasing human activities on the polar areas, and especially in the Arctic regions. The iCUPE main scientific impact is related to improved understanding and new knowledge about local and remote sources of Arctic air pollutants, including short-lived climate forcers and their precursors as well as their sinks, and improved quantification of the life cycle of mercury, heavy metals, black carbon and persistent organic pollutants. In addition, iCUPE examined changes in the Arctic snow and ice surfaces, vegetation, biomass characteristics, mapped out the development of natural resources extraction and delivered the new first impact assessments of the future exposure scenarios of pollutants in the Arctic regions. During iCUPE project lifetime the consortium worked on combining integrated in-situ and satellite Earth Observation with multi-scale modelling platform by: (1) synthesizing data from comprehensive long-term measurements, intensive campaigns and satellites, collected during the project or provided by on-going international initiatives; (2) relating the observed parameters to impacts; and (3) delivering novel data products, metrics and indicators to the stakeholders concerning the environmental status, availability and extraction of natural resources in the polar areas. Overall, iCUPE collected a significant body of knowledge, including 24 novel datasets, methods, algorithms and published more than 100 research papers. A summary of the iCUPE project obtained results will presented and discussed.

How to cite: Petäjä, T. and the iCUPE project team: Summary of integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments (iCUPE) project results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9502, 2022.

EGU22-9775 | Presentations | AS4.4

Unprecedented wildfire smoke in the Siberian Arctic in August 2021 

Olga Popovicheva, Vasilii Kobelev, Marina Chichaeva, and Nikolai Kasimov

Long-range transport to the Arctic carries tracers of anthropogenic activities and wildfires, among other aerosol constituents. Black carbon (BC) shows a contribution of fossil fuels combustion and natural biomass burning (BB) to the Arctic atmosphere chemistry and aerosol pollution.  Fossil sources mostly prevail during winter-spring season while BB sources dominate during low BC concentration periods in summer. Spectral dependence of the light absorption described by the absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) is used to differentiate between different aerosol types (BC, BrC) and indicate the impact of BB.

Long-term airborne observations of BC in Northern Siberia have revealed a strong impact of forest fires in summer (Kozlov et al., 2016; Paris et al., 2009;Popovicheva et al., 2020). Particulate brown carbon (BrC) has been reported to be emitted by intense wildfires and measured in plumes transported over two days  (Forrister et al., 2015). Due to the mixing with background aerosol and ageing processes, the air masses influenced by BB events is expected to have increased AAE as compared to the BC produced by fossil fuel.

Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) is located in the Far North of Western Siberia, more than 50% of its area takes place beyond the Polar Circle. On August 4 of 2021, strong smoke enveloped Salehard, Noyabrsk, Tarko-Sale and other municipalities of the district. The air mass transportation from the southeastern directions brought smoke from forest fires located on the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). According to the operational data of “Avialesokhrana”, 105 wildfires were active over an area of ​​about 1.2 million hectares there.

A dense haze covered a city Nadym, located around 100 km to the south the Polar Circle, as well. Smoke sampling performed from 5 to 12 August 2021 was correlated with the haze day duration and showed the variation of AAE up to 2.5, the feature of strong BB impact. Unprecedented high BC is observed on Bely island taking place in the Kara sea, above Yamal Peninsula. Unprecedented high pollution for the Siberian Arctic was recorded by research polar aerosol station “Island Bely”. An extreme increase of BC concentration was observed on August 5, reaching 4000 ng per m3. The Arctic summer background was exceeded 40 times!  It was found 8 times higher than the highest arctic haze concentrations observed in December 2019. AAE approached 1.4, very high value for area such remoted from wildfires (more than 1000 km). It indicated the long-range transportation from Yakutia of aged air masses influenced by BB events. Basic research in the Siberian Arctic is supported by Russia Geographical Society №17-2021И.

 

How to cite: Popovicheva, O., Kobelev, V., Chichaeva, M., and Kasimov, N.: Unprecedented wildfire smoke in the Siberian Arctic in August 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9775, 2022.

EGU22-10293 | Presentations | AS4.4

Geochemical processes in Yamal peninsula lakes under climate variation 

Irina Fedorova, Roman Zdorovennov, Galina Zdorovennova, and Nikita Bobrov

Climate change determines processes in Arctic lakes. Over the past ten years, within the framework of various projects, different types of Yamal lakes have been studied: deep glacio-karst Neytinskiye lakes in the central part of the peninsula and shallow thermokarst lakes formed due to melting of buried ice in the Yarkuta river valley; more than 50 lakes have been studied in total.  

The studied lakes differed markedly in transparency (2-7 м), water bottom temperature (6-18°C), electrical conductivity (97-465 μS/cm), turbidity (6.73-34.3 FTU), chromaticity (9.8-46.7°), dissolved oxygen (5-10 mg/l), depending on their location, depth, the influence of melting buried ice, and local conditions. The concentration of biogenic elements (NO3, NO2, PO4, and SiO2) was insignificant, reaching a maximum of 2.63 mg/L, 0.07 mg/L, 1.05 mg/L, and 3.82 mg/L, correspondingly. pH values ​varied within a small range - 6.1-7.68, showing the neutral lakes environment.

For Yamal lakes, the values​ of stable oxygen isotopes δ18O corresponded to the lateral inflow of water into the lakes. Increase in the water and organic substances supply from the permafrost active layer, precipitation and groundwater can be predicted due to the observed climate warming.

The ecosystems of Yamala lakes poor in organic matter (OM) in general, but OM increase may occur due to hydroclimatic factors, permafrost degradation and additional OM flux to objects while intensification of eutrophication processes. However, the photodegradation and high accumulation exchange capacity of bottom lacustrine sediments indicates the presence significant relaxation period of ecosystem under external influences.

Decrease in ice thickness by 15-20 cm in 2040-2051 relative to the values of 2009-2021 is predicted for two thermokarst lakes according to RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The lake bottom water temperature will increase by 1-2°C both during open water and under ice. The thermal balance of the bottom sediments and taliks will be positive, and increase of volume of talik will be contributed.

Three main paleoclimatic periods of sedimentation over the past 500 years have been identified based on the dating of lacustrine deposits and the description of their geochemical and spore-pollen features (the rate of sedimentation in the Neytinskiye lakes is an average of 0.8 mm/year, method for determining 210Pb): (1) 500-450 years - active sedimentation with high values of K, V, Ba; (2) 450-100 years - uniform sedimentation with low element’s concentrations, which can be interpreted as a general cooling and an erosion decrease on the lakes catchment; (3) 60-100 years - is a warmer period with waterlogging and increase of Mn and Fe and biogenic elements entry from the catchment due to the degradation of permafrost. A peak of Al and Zn can be interpreted as a result of anthropogenic impact.

Geochemical analyses were carried out on the equipment of the SPBU Resource centers "Magnetic Resonance Research Methods" and "Methods for the Analysis of Substance Composition." Research on the Yamal lakes will be continued with the support of the Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education, agreement No. 075-15-2021-139

How to cite: Fedorova, I., Zdorovennov, R., Zdorovennova, G., and Bobrov, N.: Geochemical processes in Yamal peninsula lakes under climate variation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10293, 2022.

EGU22-10368 | Presentations | AS4.4

Atmospheric Mercury Depletion Events: Assessment Impact of Meteorological Parameters in the Arctic Winter 

Fidel Pankratov, Alexander Mahura, Vladimir Masloboev, and Valentin Popov

In 2001, the mercury analyzer was installed at Amderma (69.450 N, 61.390 E, 49 m above sea level; Yugor Peninsula) in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Russia) to carry out continuous measurements of gaseous elemental mercury vapor concentration in the atmospheric surface layer. The data analysis demonstrated that the atmospheric mercury depletion evens (AMDEs, concentration < 1 ng m-3) are observed on a rather limited territory, i.e. along the coast of the Arctic seas. During observational period (2001-2015), the analyzer was placed at three locations at different distances (8.9 km – 2001-2004, 2.5 km – 2005-2010, and 200 m - 2010-2015) from the Kara Sea coast.

For the AMDEs cases, during winters of 2001-2004 the air temperature was in range from -150С to -310С and relative humidity – 68-84%. The dominated atmospheric transport for these cases was mainly observed from the N-N-W direction. The number AMDEs relative to all measurements was about 0.2%. For 2005-2010, the temperature ranged from -10С to -370С and relative humidity – 74-83%. The atmospheric transport – from the E-E-N direction. The number AMDEs relative to all measurements was 2.7%. For 2010-2013, the temperature varied from -220С to -270С and relative humidity – 75-87%. The atmospheric transport – mainly from the S-S-W direction. The number AMDEs relative to all measurements was 26.9%, showing substantial 10-fold increase of AMDEs compared with the previous period. As a result, all cases correspond to range of air temperatures from -10C to -370C and relative humidity of 68-87% for entire monitoring period considered.

For selected considered episode (29-30 Mar 2002), the air temperature varied from -260C to -310C, and when it decreased to the minimum, the effect of mercury depletion was detected with the lowest concentration (0.39 ng m-3). For episode (29 Feb - 1 Mar 2007), the temperature was also decreasing from -160C to -370C, and at reaching the minimum, the mercury concentration was also the lowest (0.12 ng m-3). Moreover, in Dec 2006, for the first time, a significant number of AMDEs cases (23 events) was recorded during the polar night. In Feb 2010 the longer duration (up to 40 hours) AMDEs episodes were observed compared with Jan (up to 15 hours).

Note that all AMDEs are generally observed at lower air temperatures and relative humidity values with respect to the average values.

How to cite: Pankratov, F., Mahura, A., Masloboev, V., and Popov, V.: Atmospheric Mercury Depletion Events: Assessment Impact of Meteorological Parameters in the Arctic Winter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10368, 2022.

EGU22-10551 | Presentations | AS4.4

Seamless Modelling for Environmental Studies: Enviro-HIRLAM Recent Research and Development 

Alexander Mahura, Roman Nuterman, Alexander Baklanov, Georgii Nerobelov, Mykhailo Savenets, Larysa Pysarenko, Margarita Sedeeva, Pavel Amosov, Aleksandr Losev, Victoria Maksimova, Fidel Pankratov, Svitlana Krakowska, Sergey Smyshlayaev, Tuukka Petaja, and Markku Kulmala

The Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) is seamless/ online integrated numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport modelling system capable to simulate simultaneously meteorology – atmospheric composition on regional to subregional – urban scales.

The main areas of the model research and development include: downscaling/  nesting  for  high  resolutions;  improved  resolving  boundary  and  surface  layers  structures; urbanization and sub-layer processes; improvement of advection schemes; integration of natural and anthropogenic emission inventories; implementation of gas-phase chemistry mechanisms, aerosol dynamics and microphysics, aerosol feedback and interactions mechanisms.

The Enviro-components includes: gas-phase chemistry; aerosol microphysics with nucleation, coagulation, condensation of sulfate, mineral dust, sea-salt, black and organic carbon together  with  aerosols’ dry and wet deposition, sedimentation processes;  parameterisations of urban sublayer with modifications of the interaction soil–biosphere–atmosphere scheme; sulfur cycle mechanism with dimethyl sulfide, sulfur dioxide and sulfate; radiation scheme improved to  account  explicitly  for  aerosol  radiation interactions  for   aerosol  subtypes; aerosol  activation  implemented in condensation-convection scheme with nucleation dependent on aerosol properties and ice-phase processes; locally  mass-conserving  semi-Lagrangian  numerical  advection  scheme; natural and anthropogenic emission inventories.

The Enviro-HIRLAM utilises extraction and pre-processing of initial/ boundary meteorology-chemistry-aerosol conditions and observations for data assimilation (from ECMWF’s ERA-5 & CAMS), pre-processing of selected emission inventories for anthropogenic and natural emissions. The latest version has been run on CRAY-XC30/40 and Atos BullSequana HPCs machines, and it has been developed through the research and HPC projects such as Enviro-HIRLAM at CSC and Enviro-PEEX & Enviro-PEEX(Plus) at ECMWF, as well as other research projects.

The research, development and science education of the modelling system and its applications will be demonstrated on examples, where the Enviro-HIRLAM is used as a research tool  for studies in domain of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX; https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex) programme. Examples of such include: aspects of regional-subregional-urban downscaling with focus on metropolitan areas of St.Petersburg and Moscow; influence of dust transport from artificial tailing dumps and Cu-Ni smelters of the Kola Peninsula on pollution of environment and health of population; aerosol feedbacks and interactions at regional scale in the Arctic-boreal domain; evaluation of atmosphere-land-sea surfaces interactions, and in particular, heat-moisture exchange/ regime between these surfaces and for better understanding and forecasting of local meteorology in the Arctic; analysis of urban meteorology and atmospheric pollution with integrated approach to high-resolution numerical modelling; and others. The modelling output provides meteorology-chemistry related input to assessment studies for population and environment as well as can be integrated into GIS environment for further risk/vulnerability/consequences/etc. estimation, and other studies.

The science education component for the model is also realised though short-term visits of young researchers, organization and carrying out research training weeks. The latest face-to-face trainings took place in Apr and Jun 2019 (Helsinki and Tyumen), and online in Nov-Dec 2021 (https://megapolis2021.ru).

How to cite: Mahura, A., Nuterman, R., Baklanov, A., Nerobelov, G., Savenets, M., Pysarenko, L., Sedeeva, M., Amosov, P., Losev, A., Maksimova, V., Pankratov, F., Krakowska, S., Smyshlayaev, S., Petaja, T., and Kulmala, M.: Seamless Modelling for Environmental Studies: Enviro-HIRLAM Recent Research and Development, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10551, 2022.

EGU22-11249 | Presentations | AS4.4 | Highlight

AASCO – Arena for gap analysis of the existing Arctic science co-operations 

Hanna Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Yubao Qiu, Huadong Guo, Nikolay Kasimov, Paul Berkman, Heikki Lihavainen, and Markku Kulmala

A deep understanding of the land - atmosphere - ocean feedbacks and interactions is required to make impact on the sustainable and just development of the Arctic region. The science based knowledge of the Arctic environments would lead to improved mitigation and adaptation plans, sustainable services for the Arctic communities and stakeholders and to well targeted policy actions. At the same time with the science approach we need a process of making  policies acceptable and normative to the people living in the Artic.  AASCO – “Arena gap  analysis of the existing Arctic science co-operations” highlights key areas for the Arctic interactions – feedbacks research from the atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric and social perspectives, and summarizes the potential improvements stemming from the holistic understanding of the Arctic climate system. Furthermore, AASCO aims to provide an outlook and benefits of the bridges between other international approaches like Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) Program, University of Arctic network (U-Arctic), The Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme of WMO, Sustainable Arctic Observation Network (SAON) e.g  it’s strategy process called “ROADS” and the Digital Belt and Road (DBAR) program and, in general, of bridges between research and society impact.

How to cite: Lappalainen, H., Petäjä, T., Vihma, T., Baklanov, A., Chalov, S., Qiu, Y., Guo, H., Kasimov, N., Berkman, P., Lihavainen, H., and Kulmala, M.: AASCO – Arena for gap analysis of the existing Arctic science co-operations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11249, 2022.

EGU22-12701 | Presentations | AS4.4 | Highlight

Application of New Approaches in Teaching Earth Sciences 

Sergiy Stepanenko, Inna Khomenko, Oleg Shabliy, Valeria Ovcharuk, and Inna Semenova

In view of unprecedented negative changes threatening safe existence of the humankind and taking place in all parts of the Earth system, decisive and rapid measures are needed to reduce vulnerability, which had been manifested in the Sustainable Development Goals which are intended to be achieved by the year 2030.

Despite numerous efforts in the field of combating climate and environmental change on planet Earth, negative trends leading to degradation of the planet persist to grow, which can be explained by many reasons such as lack of awareness of the threat that the humankind faces in the business community and the society, lack of flexibility in the response of the countries’ economies to the challenges of the time, weak ties between science, education and the economy.

In order to eliminate the above-mentioned causes and provide for society's transition to sustainable development, it is necessary to lay the foundations for a new type of education that would make it possible to arrive at continuous education in the field of Earth Sciences based on the principles of environmental law and sustainable development, with interdisciplinary interaction and cooperation of science, education and economics taken account of. The training should use a variety of modern educational tools to reach the widest range of target groups and promote climate and environmental literacy in the society.

Since the existing education system is not able to respond in a timely manner to the new challenges of the time, introduction of a new type of education requires setting up a completely new educational structure - a center of excellence - which, due to a number of advantages, compared to traditional university structures, meets modern demands in the field of education and being a multi-level, dynamic and flexible system, could effeciently be adapted to the pressing needs of the time to provide the entire range of educational servicesm, long-term to short-term courses, up to micro-learning, for various target groups and is able to function under the conditions of dominant inter- and transdisciplinarity.

Under the new conditions that the world has been facing since 2020, in order to facilitate access to educational resources, development of networked on-line study programmes, with involvement of world-class experts in work on educational courses and mutual learning, which significantly expands dissemination and tools for societal impact, the center of excellence is to feature a virtual scientific-and-educational IT platform. The Center of Excellence is to play the role of a consultuncy board, which will provide for transfer of knowledge in a targeted manner, in the form that is the most agreeable for the end-user and therefore is the most attractive to entice a wide range of stakeholders.

Due to the unique geographical location, as well as the accumulated scientific and educational potential in the field of Earth Sciences, Odessa State Environmental University proposes setting up a Center of Excellence in the Field of Earth Sciences and offers cooperation to all interested parties.

How to cite: Stepanenko, S., Khomenko, I., Shabliy, O., Ovcharuk, V., and Semenova, I.: Application of New Approaches in Teaching Earth Sciences, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12701, 2022.

EGU22-12818 | Presentations | AS4.4

Numerical simulation of the Lagrangian transport of aerosols of various genesis in urban conditions 

Alexander Varentsov, Victor Stepanenko, and Evgeny Mortikov

This work is devoted to the development of a numerical model of the transport of aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer, as well as its application in idealized cases and studies with a realistic urban surface. Air quality and the distribution of pollutants is one of the major urban problems, and measurement methods can be limited in the complex geometry of the city, which motivates the development of modeling methods.

The model uses the Lagrangian approach to modeling, taking into account the size and mass of each particle, the possibility of aerosol deposition and their collision with various surfaces. The particle motion equation takes into account various parameters of the atmosphere: wind direction and speed, turbulent characteristics. The influence of turbulence on the motion of aerosols can be taken into account in the model using several parametrizations – stochastic Lagrangian models of zero and first order. It is possible to simulate a huge number of particles at the same time. The algorithm is implemented in the C++ programming language.

The model can be used as a separate tool that requires information about the state of the atmosphere as input data - these can be measurement data, results of hydrodynamic modeling, analytically given values. Numerous experiments have been carried out in this mode. The model was verified on exact analytical solutions for light and heavy particles, on the data of field measurements of the concentrations of dust and sand particles. Calculations were carried out in conditions of idealized geometry of buildings (urban canyons) and in conditions of real urban development. For this, input data from RANS and LES models were used.

The developed algorithm can also be used as a module connected to hydrodynamic models. In this mode, it is possible to use the input data on atmospheric parameters with the maximum resolution in time and space. By connecting to the LES model, high-resolution simulations of aerosol transport in realistic urban environments were performed.

The work is supported by Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education, agreement No. 075-15-2021-574 (megagrant leaded by M.Kulmala in Moscow State University, WP4), No. 075-15-2019-1621, by RSF grant 21-17-00249, by RFBR grants 20-05-00776 and 19-05-50110.

How to cite: Varentsov, A., Stepanenko, V., and Mortikov, E.: Numerical simulation of the Lagrangian transport of aerosols of various genesis in urban conditions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12818, 2022.

Climate change mitigation strategies require long time removal and storage of carbon; thus, enhancing soil carbon stock is an appealing way to increase carbon sink potential and control emissions owing to associated ecosystem benefits. Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) stock in the semiarid landscape is vital for natural based climate solutions and mechanisms. The carbon stock in soil represents 25% of the potential of natural climate solutions and wetlands have around 72% mitigation potential for soil carbon. Wetlands have a very complex natural system and provide a potential sink of atmospheric carbon. Particularly the role of wetlands in arid and semiarid lands has become vital as they not only provide a water source and livelihood options to the local community but also play an important role in maintaining ecosystem services. However, only limited studies have been conducted to assess the roles and potentials of wetlands in carbon sequestration in a semiarid region. The geospatial technologies provide a cost-effective and more accurate estimation of SOC stock in these ecosystems. The SOC distribution in wetland ecosystems and their carbon sequestration potential studies are crucial to understanding the global carbon budget. The present study area Keoladeo National Park is an ecologically important forested wetland situated in semiarid India with a heterogeneous landscape. Current research work illustrated a hybrid interpolation method for estimating the distribution of soil carbon in different vegetation type/land cover (VT/LC) using point survey data (prepared after laboratory test) with remote sensing. The map prepared has given satisfactory results with more than 80 present accuracy. SOC distribution data were collected from 130 plots from both the surface (0-15 cm) and subsurface soil (15-30 cm) covering all the 15 VT/LC classes. SOC was found to be significantly related to VT/LC type and water availability. The spatial distribution of SOC shows a wide range with an average value of around 1.5%; the seasonal distribution shows an increased amount of carbon in pre monsoon season and a high amount of carbon in the surface soil. The concentration of SOC (around 2.5%) has been observed to be more in wetland and grassland soils in both the seasons that cover about 13% and 27% area of the park, respectively. SOC stock management in this region is vital in observing the local community needs, which is mainly dependent on the park for livestock food. Further geospatial analysis of soil carbon stock potential will add value to the study. Synergising climate change mitigation strategies and community requirements are needed to enhance vulnerable communities' benefits. 

Keywords: Soil carbon, semiarid region, remote sensing, climate change mitigation.

How to cite: Deval, K. and Joshi, P. K.: Distribution of soil carbon stock in a forested wetland in the semiarid region of India: implications for climate change mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-527, 2022.

EGU22-1196 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Evidence that a northward range shift of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) causes a net release of CO2 from soil 

Gabriel Boilard, Robert Bradley, and Daniel Houle

Climate change is expected to shift the home range of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) northward, thereby encroaching onto the southern range of present-day balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) forests. Such a shift from coniferous to deciduous forest stands will affect several edaphic properties and potentially modify soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and stability. For example, the more labile deciduous litter should decompose faster than coniferous litter, potentially resulting in lower SOC storage in forest floors. On the other hand, labile deciduous litter may result in a greater microbial turnover of SOC, leading to more stable SOC in mineral-associated organic matter (C-MAOM) in the subsoil. To test these hypotheses, we surveyed 30 mature forest stands in three regions along the sugar maple–balsam fir ecotone in southern Quebec, Canada. We dug three soil pits in each stand and measured SOC stocks in the organic forest floor as well as across five depth increments (0-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-30 and 30-40 cm) in the mineral soil. We incubated mineral soil samples from each depth for 51 weeks and monitored CO2 emissions rates, from which we quantified the bioreactive SOC pool. We derived two indices of microbial turnover of SOC at different soil depths based on δ13C signatures. Finally, we used a wet sieving procedure to assess the proportion of C-MAOM at each soil depth. Results revealed that SOC stocks were 27% greater in balsam fir than in sugar maple forests. Most of this difference was attributable to the thicker forest floors under balsam fir, in accordance with slower litter decomposition rates. CO2 emission rates in the first 10 weeks of incubation were higher in soil samples collected under sugar maple; thereafter, CO2 emission rates were higher in soil samples collected under balsam fir.  As a result, the bioreactive SOC pool over the course of 51 weeks did not differ significantly between stand types. We found significant region × stand type interactions on both indices of microbial turnover as well as on the proportion of C-MAOM in the mineral soil. More specifically, only in one region was microbial turnover higher under sugar maple than under balsam fir. Likewise, the effect of stand type on the proportion of C-MAOM was significant in only one region, and this effect was contrary to expectations (i.e. balsam fir > sugar maple). We ascribe this unexpected result to the presence of earthworms, which we only found in sugar maple stands in this region. Although we did not find generalizable effects of stand type on SOC turnover and stability, we did find significant generalizable patterns of decreasing SOC bioreactivity, increasing microbial turnover and increasing C-MAOM with increasing soil depth. Taken collectively, our results suggest that a northward shift of sugar maple will cause a net release of CO2 to the atmosphere and potentially create a positive feedback on global warming.

How to cite: Boilard, G., Bradley, R., and Houle, D.: Evidence that a northward range shift of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) causes a net release of CO2 from soil, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1196, 2022.

Effects of the construction of the lower Yarlung Tsangpo River tunnel project on the stability of organic carbon in forest soils

Abstract: Tunnels are widely used in road construction in areas such as the highlands and mountains, however, their effect on soil organic carbon stability has been less studied. Soil organic carbon stability is a sensitive index to evaluate the response of soil ecosystem to environmental changes. In order to detect the soil organic carbon (SOC) the anti-interference ability of the engineering construction of the tunnel, the stability of soil organic carbon was analyzed by using labile soil organic carbon(LOC), soil aggregates and enzyme activities. Based on the construction of the lower Yarlung Tsangpo River tunnel, fixed monitoring plots were set up in the Engineering disturbance areas (ED) and undisturbed areas (CK) as a control to investigate the influence of tunnel construction on SOC stability . Results showed that the SOC and LOC in the ED were 291.40 mg/kg and 110.28 mg/kg, respectively, which were slightly higher than those in the CK area 255.31 mg/kg and 91.19 mg/kg, but the difference was not significant (p=0.6). The proportion of >0.25 mm aggregates in all soil fractions was more than 80%. With the decrease of aggregate size, the content of organic carbon in aggregate showed a decreasing trend, but there was no significant difference between ED and CK areas. This study showed that tunnel construction has no significant effect on soil organic carbon stability, which may be associated to the abundant precipitation in the study area. Because vegetation mainly absorbed soil water in top layer and the input and output of soil organic matter were not affected. The results of the study provide a reference basis for the evaluation of the impact of tunnel construction on the environment and for the management of the forest ecosystem in the lower Yarlung Tsangpo River.

Keywords: Tunneling; Forest soils; Organic carbon stability; labile organic carbon; Soil enzyme; soil aggregates

How to cite: Zhao, R. and Tang, X.: Effects of the construction of the lower Yarlung Tsangpo River tunnel project on the stability of organic carbon in forest soils, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1615, 2022.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) saturation is generally defined as soil’s unique limit to stabilize C, which is dependent on soil physio-chemical characteristics. It is claimed that if once the mineral fraction is saturated, no additional carbon input leads to mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) accrual. However, the capacity of a specific soil to store MAOC may depend on many factors, and experimental evidence of actual saturation is scarce. Earlier defined saturation points appear to be statistically biased since especially agricultural soils with high SOC contents are rare so that the strong linear relationship between MAOC and total SOC becomes less clear at higher SOC contents.

To assess, whether the amount of MAOC saturates at a certain point, we used the opportunity of a comprehensive soil archive. From a total of 3104 topsoil samples collected during the German Agricultural Soil Inventory, we took a systematic random sample (n=190) with a wide range in SOC (0.54 - 11.7 %) and clay content (3-77%). We thereby ensured, that an equal number of samples were selected in each SOC content class, which were defined in steps of 1% SOC to ensure an unbiased evaluation of a potential saturation point.  Those soils are being fractionated into Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) and MAOC. Firstly, soils are subjected to ultrasonic dispersion followed by particle size separation via wet sieving (50 µm). SOC and total nitrogen will be determined in each sample. The first results of this study will be presented, which will shed more light on an important aspect of SOC dynamics.

How to cite: Neha, N. and Poeplau, C.: Fractionating German agricultural soils to assess if the mineral associated carbon fraction saturates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2775, 2022.

EGU22-2916 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Thermogravimetric-calorimetric characterisation of organic matter in oxide-rich tropical soils 

Laura Schnee, Stephan Kaufhold, Albert Ngakou, and Juliane Filser

Tropical soils are increasingly subjected to both site conversion and intensification of agricultural practices, leading to cultivation-induced losses of soil organic matter (SOM) and associated nutrients. Hence, robust techniques for the qualitative characterisation of SOM in heavily weathered tropical soils are required. While thermogravimetric methods are widely used for the characterisation of temperate soils, thermal degradation features of pedogenic oxides typical for many tropical soils can confound the analyses, particularly in thermolabile SOM fractions. We used thermogravimetry coupled to differential scanning calorimetry and mass spectrometry (DSC-TGA-MS) to discern mineral and organic thermal degradation patterns in a kaolinitic soil from Cameroon receiving different mineral and organic amendments. We quantified endothermic mineral degradation features overlapping with OM combustion and thus corrected the exothermic OM degradation signal for pedogenic oxide dehydroxylation. The addition of thermostable biochar interfered with the identification and quantification of clay mineral dehydroxylation features. Between three and four thermal OM fractions of different energy density were identified, among which a distinct cellulosic fraction marked the continuous C4 vegetation on the site. The addition of compost led to a reduction of the thermolabile fraction, while the absence of organic input resulted in a reduction of the thermostable fraction. We conclude (I) that the addition of nutrient-rich fresh OM (compost) may lead to faster OM turnover as indicated by a reduction of the thermolabile OM fraction, and (II) while DSC-TGA-MS is generally suitable for OM characterisation in tropical soils, the presence of pyrogenic C represents a challenge if clay dehydroxylation is to be determined simultaneously.

How to cite: Schnee, L., Kaufhold, S., Ngakou, A., and Filser, J.: Thermogravimetric-calorimetric characterisation of organic matter in oxide-rich tropical soils, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2916, 2022.

EGU22-3027 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Soil organic carbon sequestration and dynamics along a chronosequence on fluvial terraces 

Giorgio Galluzzi, César Plaza, Simone Priori, Beatrice Giannetta, and Claudio Zaccone

The aim of this work is to investigate the mechanisms of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration as a function of time and depth. A chronosequence, consisting of two orders (T2 and T1) of the Adige river terraces (Veneto region, North of Italy) and 3 sites (Q2, Q3, and Q4), has been investigated. The highest and oldest terrace (T1) is located in Montalto di Gaium, 125 m above the current Adige riverbed level. This terrace was probably formed during the last interglacial (ca. 125,000 years BP) and was characterized by Paleudalf soils. Conversely, T2 represents the youngest order of terraces (probably formed during the early Holocene) and is situated 15 m above the current riverbed level. The Q2 site was located in T1 whereas Q3 and Q4 in T2; all sites have a common vegetation. From each site, soil samples have been collected (1 profile and 2 cores per site) by soil horizon, and each horizon sub-sampled by depth (each 5 cm). Five-cm thick sub-samples have been characterized for pH, electrical conductivity, total organic C (Corg), total N (NTOT), texture, and micro and macro nutrients. Particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) have been isolated using a physical fractionation method and characterized by elemental (CHNS) and thermal analysis (TGA-DSC).

The average Corg content in the topsoil (20 cm) is quite constant in the three sites (27.4 mg/g), whereas the average NTOT concentration ranges between 2.7 and 3.1 mg/g. In all sites, the Corg concentration along the profile is positively correlated with NTOT (p<0.001); moreover, a positive and significative correlation between Corg and clay (p<0.001) was observed exclusively in Q2, while in all sites Ca, instead of Al or Fe, seems to play a major role in Corg sequestration. SOC stock in topsoil is 47% higher in Q2 (T1) (72±3 MgC/ha) than in Q4 (T2) (49±5 MgC/ha), but such a difference decreases at 35 cm (96±2 and 76±7 MgC/ha, respectively). Furthermore, in the site showing the deepest soil profile (Q3), the SOC accumulated between 35 and 80 cm (42 MgC/ha) represents the 33% of the total. The average content of the MAOM pool is constant along the T2 (Q3 and Q4) profiles (52%), while increases with depth in T1 (up to 62% in deeper layers).

Thermal indices (e.g., WL400-550/200-300, TG-T50, DSC-T50) suggest that the stability of bulk SOM generally increases with depth in the three sites. Moreover, a general increase in the thermal stability of both MAOM and POM is observed with depth in all sites, with Q2 (i.e., the site in the oldest terrace) showing a larger increase of MAOM thermal stability in deeper soil compared to Q3 and Q4 (located on the youngest terrace).

While most of the studies on SOC sequestration and stabilization focuses on topsoils, our preliminary data show that a significant stock of more recalcitrant organic C accumulates in deeper soils. Future data will help to better understand the effect of time on SOC distribution among different pools and as a function of depth.

How to cite: Galluzzi, G., Plaza, C., Priori, S., Giannetta, B., and Zaccone, C.: Soil organic carbon sequestration and dynamics along a chronosequence on fluvial terraces, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3027, 2022.

EGU22-3399 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Upscaling microbial stoichiometric adaptability in SOM turnover using the SESAM model: specifics of phosphorous dynamics. 

Thomas Wutzler, Lin Yu, Sönke Zaehle, Marion Schrumpf, Bernhard Ahrens, and Markus Reichstein

In order to understand the coupling of land ecosystem carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorous (P) cycles, it is necessary to understand microbial element use efficiencies (C, N and P) of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. While important controls of those efficiencies by microbial community adaptations have been shown at the scale of a soil pore, an abstract simplified representation of community adaptations is needed at the ecosystem scale. The conceptual soil enzyme allocation model (SEAM) explicitly models community adaptation strategies of resource allocation to extracellular enzymes and enzyme limitations on SOM decomposition. It thus provides a scaling from representing several microbial functional groups to a single holistic microbial community. The model has been further abstracted using quasi-steady-state assumption for extracellular enzyme pools to the SESAM model. While initially, P optimality considerations have been treated analogue to N, we found with simulating a sequence of sites with a P availability gradient that model extensions were required for P. Here we discuss effects of explicitly considering two assumptions on SOM dynamics: (1) oxidative enzymes can acquire P from SOM without necessary stoichiometric decomposition of C and N, and (2) for the case where P is limiting, in addition to P cost, also the C and N cost of enzyme production are important for optimality. We found that neglecting these two assumptions did not significantly change system behavior and predictions in the case where P was not limiting soil microbes. However, it changed model predictions of ecosystem-scale SOM dynamics for the case where P started to become limiting.

This modeling study links knowledge of constraints at soil microbial scale to SOM dynamics at ecosystem scale. It highlights the important role of adaptability of soil microbial communities to resource supply and stoichiometry for the development of SOM stocks and nutrient availability.

How to cite: Wutzler, T., Yu, L., Zaehle, S., Schrumpf, M., Ahrens, B., and Reichstein, M.: Upscaling microbial stoichiometric adaptability in SOM turnover using the SESAM model: specifics of phosphorous dynamics., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3399, 2022.

EGU22-3506 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Soil micro-food web adaptations to stoichiometric imbalance regulate soil multifunctionality 

Bing Li, Yingbin Li, Xu Han, Yuhui Li, and Qi Li

Ecological stoichiometry theory plays a crucial role in linking ecosystem process. The interactions between organisms and/or between organisms and abiotic environment are strongly affected by the biological demand for elements and their supply by environment. Therefore, the complex feedback between the elemental stoichiometry of organism and their resources maintains the functioning of ecosystem. However, whether and how the multiple responses of soil micro-food webs to stoichiometric imbalance affect the soil multifunctionality have never been assessed so far. In this study, we tested the soil multifunctionality along the forest-steppe ecotone and assessed several potential adaptation mechanisms of soil micro-food web responding to elemental limitations including soil microbial stoichiometry, extracellular enzyme activities and the composition of soil communities as well as ecological network. The soil multifunctionality gradually decreased from forest towards steppe. The microorganisms invested more C-acquiring enzymes over nutrient-acquiring enzymes with decreasing soil C:N:P ratios, while the increasing C limitation in steppe soil enhanced microbial threshold element ratio and carbon-use efficiency. The changes in extracellular enzyme activity and community structure of soil micro-food web had a stronger impact on soil multifunctionality. The multiple adaptive pathways of soil micro-food web to the stoichiometric imbalance of resources, jointly affected the multifunctionality of soil. Our study provides deeper insights into how stoichiometric constraints may induce shifts in soil micro-food web and then influence the ecosystem functioning. Our findings have important implications for integrating shifts in individual physiological metabolism as well as changes in community composition of soil biota and for better understanding the relations of soil biodiversity and soil multifunctionality in terrestrial ecosystems.

How to cite: Li, B., Li, Y., Han, X., Li, Y., and Li, Q.: Soil micro-food web adaptations to stoichiometric imbalance regulate soil multifunctionality, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3506, 2022.

EGU22-4920 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Accounting for microbial dynamics to simulate soil functions under agricultural management 

Sara König, Thomas Reitz, Ulrich Weller, and Hans-Jörg Vogel

Mechanistic simulation models are an essential tool for predicting soil functions such as nutrient cycling, water filtering and storage, productivity and carbon storage as well as the complex interactions between these functions. Most soil functions are driven or affected by soil organisms. Yet, biological processes are often neglected in soil function models or implicitly described by rate parameters. This can be explained by the high complexity of the soil ecosystem with its dynamic and heterogeneous environment, and by the range of temporal and spatial scales these processes are taking place at.

Here, we meet these challenges and present our approach for integrating biological microscale processes into soil modelling. We introduce our systemic soil model BODIUM which simulates relevant microbial processes at the profile scale to analyse the impact of different agricultural management and climatic conditions on soil functions. For this, BODIUM includes different microbial pools as well as C:N stoichiometric considerations but does not explicitly account for microbial community structure or composition dynamics. In our approach, soil structure dynamics at the pore scale is a critical factor for controlling the availability of carbon and nutrients as well as the distribution of water and oxygen, which in turn jointly drive microbial growth and activity. To explore the potential advantage of BODIUM, we compare our model approach with traditional modelling approaches without explicit microbial activity under different simulation scenarios. We further analyse the impact of changing microclimatic conditions of water, oxygen and nutrient availability as dedicated by a dynamic soil structure on microbial activity and the corresponding soil functions.

Finally, we discuss ongoing developments to additionally consider, e.g., microbe-fauna-interactions, microbial feedback on soil structure dynamics, and phosphor dynamics.

How to cite: König, S., Reitz, T., Weller, U., and Vogel, H.-J.: Accounting for microbial dynamics to simulate soil functions under agricultural management, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4920, 2022.

EGU22-5461 | Presentations | SSS5.3

How diverse minerals affect soil organic matter age distribution and chemical composition 

Shane Stoner, Carlos Sierra, Sebastian Doetterl, Marion Schrumpf, Alison Hoyt, and Susan Trumbore

Soil mineral characteristics have been shown to play a dominant role in stabilizing soil organic matter over medium to long term timescales. However, while great strides have been made (Kleber et al, 2021) toward understanding organic matter stabilization processes, there remain uncertainties about the chemistry, time scales, and age of carbon that is stored on soil minerals. We applied modern thermal analysis methods to investigate soil mineral effects on the thermal stability, chemical composition, and age distribution of soil organic matter. We selected subsoil mineral fractions that contained a single dominant stabilizing pathway (e.g. 2:1 clays, iron oxides, short-range order minerals, crystalline minerals) to isolate effects of individual minerals. We paired thermal fractionation with pyrolysis-GC/MS to describe the relationships of SOM age and chemical composition. Early results show that while certain minerals display heterogeneous thermal stabilities, single mineralogies contain generally narrow age ranges. In addition, organic matter chemistry associated with diverse minerals varies widely and indicates that certain minerals provide higher stability to complex, energy-rich molecules. Associated with this work, we also present novel continuous SOM radiocarbon distributions from thermal fractionation.

How to cite: Stoner, S., Sierra, C., Doetterl, S., Schrumpf, M., Hoyt, A., and Trumbore, S.: How diverse minerals affect soil organic matter age distribution and chemical composition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5461, 2022.

EGU22-5496 | Presentations | SSS5.3 | Highlight

From energy to (soil organic) matter 

Anna Gunina and Yakov Kuzyakov

This work proposes a new view of soil organic matter (SOM) formation: microorganisms use most of the organics entering the soil as energy rather than as a source of carbon (C), while SOM accumulates as a residual by-product because the microbial energy investment in its decomposition exceeds the energy gain. Considering the annual sequestration of C from litter into SOM of 0.4-5% of the total SOM pool, the energy input is equivalent to 1-10% of the total energy of SOM. Thus, more than 90% of the energy added to the soil by plants is lost in microbial transformation, with SOM representing the residual fraction. The conversion of plant litter accumulates approximately ~ 2% of the energy per unit of persisting plant organic matter. This is the proportion of biochemically stable litter-derived compounds and microbial necromass that get accumulated, while oxidized compounds are completely decomposed or recycled. As a result, SOM has more energy per unit C than plant residues, but the availability of that energy is low. This is because SOM composition is more diverse with a non-regular structure compared to plant residues and thus requires a wider range of enzymes to break it down.

The microbial transformation of plant residues into SOM is a never-ending continuum governed by processes such as mineralization, recycling, microbial necromass, and residue accumulation, all of which determine the energy content, fluxes, and nominal oxidation state of C (NOSC) values of the residual litter and the resulting SOM. NOSC and energy content of SOM are narrower in range than litter, with an average NOSC of -0.3, and a higher energy per unit C. Meanwhile, the NOSC values of available compounds (mainly low molecular weight) released from decomposed polymers play a role in the partition of C between catabolism and anabolism in microorganisms. They also affect the energy investment of microorganisms in nutrient mining from SOM.

The conversion of rhizodeposits and plant litter, considered to be the main sources of C in soil, therefore needs to be re-examined from an energy perspective, including energy quality and availability. This would also require the assessment of energy loss and conservation, as almost all microbial processing is directed towards energy acquisition rather than actual C demand. The small amount of plant-derived C and energy that persist in the form of SOM is only an intermediate phase to ensure energy fluxes in the soil system. Thus, the transformation of rhizodeposits and plant litter represents a process of utilization of the energy stored in them, while SOM is the residual material that persists because its microbial utilization is energetically inefficient.

How to cite: Gunina, A. and Kuzyakov, Y.: From energy to (soil organic) matter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5496, 2022.

EGU22-5871 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Rock-Eval®-RMQS: Monitoring the Characteristics of SOM on the French Territory with Rock-Eval® 6 Thermal Analysis to Assess its Stability 

Amicie Delahaie, Pierre Barré, François Baudin, Dominique Arrouays, Antonio Bispo, Line Boulonne, Claire Chenu, Claudy Jolivet, Manuel Martin, Nicolas Saby, Florence Savignac, and Lauric Cécillon

Soil organic matter (SOM) is widely recognized as of critical importance for both soil quality and climatic mitigation. The quality and quantity of SOM are key to assess the characteristics of soils, and thus must be accurately monitored in order to protect the integrity of soils. In the last few years, a thermal analysis technique called Rock-Eval® that provides insights on bulk SOM chemistry and thermal stability has been recognized as a powerful method for SOM characterization. It can moreover be applied on large sets of samples.

The RMQS is the French monitoring network of soil quality. The first sampling campaign took place from 2000 to 2015 and resulted – among others – in about 2200 composite surface (0-30 cm) samples taken all over France. It represents an unprecedented collection of precise and complete data on French soils.

We observed significant effects of land cover on both SOM thermal stability and bulk chemistry. The mean values of hydrogen index (HI, which is a proxy for SOM H/C ratio) for arable lands (190.5 ± 43.4 mg HC per g of SOC, n=786) was lower than for grassland soils (228.4 ± 46.3 mg HC per g of SOC, n=486) and forest soils (240.4 ± 66.4 mg HC per g of SOC, n=528). Regarding the oxygen index (OIre6, which is a proxy of SOM O/C ratio), we observed significantly different values (P<0.001) for arable land soils (188.8 ± 30.4 mg O2 per g of SOC), grassland soils (172.4 ± 26.8 mg O2 per g of SOC) and forest soils (164.2 ± 29.6 mg O2 per g of SOC). We also observed that thermal stability of SOM was significantly higher in cropland soils compared to grassland and forest soils. Our data suggest that topsoil SOM is on average more oxidized and biogeochemically stable in croplands. Further analyses will investigate the influence of pedo-climatic conditions on SOM characteristics.

The high number and even repartition of data on the French territory allow for the constitution of a national interpretative referential for these indicators. The Rock-Eval® parameters will also be used to calculate the centennially stable SOC fraction using the PARTYsocv2.0 model and map it at the scale of France.

How to cite: Delahaie, A., Barré, P., Baudin, F., Arrouays, D., Bispo, A., Boulonne, L., Chenu, C., Jolivet, C., Martin, M., Saby, N., Savignac, F., and Cécillon, L.: Rock-Eval®-RMQS: Monitoring the Characteristics of SOM on the French Territory with Rock-Eval® 6 Thermal Analysis to Assess its Stability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5871, 2022.

EGU22-6144 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Luminescence properties of the humin fraction isolated from Chernozems and Phaeozems from various regions of Poland 

Jerzy Weber, Lilla Mielnik, Romualda Bejger, Aleksandra Ukalska-Jaruga, Elżbieta Jamroz, Maria Jerzykiewicz, Irmina Ćwieląg-Piasecka, Andrzej Kocowicz, Magdalena Dębicka, and Jakub Bekier

Humin fraction of soil organic matter is assigned to play an important role in carbon sequestration and sorption of xenobiotics. This study concerns luminescence properties (fluorescence and delayed luminescence) of humin fraction isolated from mollic horizons of eight Chernozems and Phaeozems, used as arable soils in various regions of Poland. Isolation procedure was described by Weber et al. (2022). Investigated soils differed in the content of TOC, ranging from 13.3 to 41.7 g kg−1, as well as texture from loam (Magnice, Pyrzyce) through silt loam (Trzebnik, Ciepłowody, Hrubieszów) and sandy clay loam (Psary) till clay (Ziemnice, Kętrzyn). They also differed in their pH values (from 5.64 to 7.71), and CEC (from 21.6 to  53.2 cmol(+)kg-1). Ash content of humin varied between 22.89%  - 54.50%, which is typical for humin originated from mineral soils (Stevenson 1994).

References:

Stevenson FJ. 1994. Humus chemistry: Genesis, composition, and reactions. New York: John Wiley and Sons, p 512.

Weber J., Jamroz E., Kocowicz A., Dębicka M., Bekier J., Ćwieląg-Piasecka I., Ukalska-Jaruga A., Mielnik L., Bejger R., Jerzykiewicz M. (2022). Optimized isolation method of humin fraction  from mineral soil material. Environmental Geochemistry and Health, 1-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-021-01037-3 

 

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Science Center (NCN) Poland (project No 2018/31/B/ST10/00677 “Chemical and spectroscopic properties of soil humin fraction in relation to their mutual interaction with pesticides")

 

How to cite: Weber, J., Mielnik, L., Bejger, R., Ukalska-Jaruga, A., Jamroz, E., Jerzykiewicz, M., Ćwieląg-Piasecka, I., Kocowicz, A., Dębicka, M., and Bekier, J.: Luminescence properties of the humin fraction isolated from Chernozems and Phaeozems from various regions of Poland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6144, 2022.

EGU22-6222 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Comparison of soil organic matter composition under differentland uses by DRIFT spectroscopy 

Saven Thai, Lenka Pavlů, and Václav Tejnecký

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays vital importance for biological, chemical, and physical soil improvement and productivity. Organic matter composition also depends on different types of vegetation covers. Thus the study was aimed to estimate and characterize the soil organic matter (SOM) under different land uses (cropland, grassland, and forestland) and depths (0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, and 20-30 cm) in Prague Suchdol. Ninety samples of disturbed soil were collected within different land uses and within different depths. The soil organic matter (SOM) composition was assessed by diffuse reflectance infrared fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFT). Humic and fulvic acid were extracted from soils and their composition was also assessed by DRIFT. Additionally, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), humus quality as ratio between absorbances of soil extract with sodium pyrophosphate at the wavelengths 400 and 600 nm, soil organic carbon (by the rapid dichromate oxidation technique), were determined on the samples as well as physical characteristics as bulk density. The data were analysed statistically by statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) version 20. The results indicated that pHKCl is significantly different among land uses. Cropland had the highest values of pHKCl with a range from 7.76 to 6.86, followed by grassland with a range from 5.72 to 5.93 and forestland with 3.34 to 3.65, respectively. However, the humus quality was significantly different for all depths where forestland had the lowest humus quality compared to grassland and cropland, respectively. The soil organic carbon deviates statistically in depth 0-10 cm and 20-30 cm, while the depth in between from 10 to 20 cm showed no substantial difference among the land uses. Nonetheless, the result revealed that the largest differences of the spectra in the composition of organic matter were observed in the upper parts of the soil profile. The forest soil spectra had more intense aliphatic bands, carboxylic, and CH bands than spectra of grassland and cropland soils. The difference of HAs spectra was at 3 010 to 2 800 cm-1 where the most intensive aliphatic bands were in forest soil HAs, followed by grassland and cropland soil HAs. The grassland topsoil FAs spectrum differs most from the other land uses. It has lower peaks around 1 660–1 600 cm-1 and 1 200 cm-1 than cropland and forest. The concentration of low molecular mass organic acid (LMMOA) was the highest in the forest soil and the most abundant acid was citrate.

How to cite: Thai, S., Pavlů, L., and Tejnecký, V.: Comparison of soil organic matter composition under differentland uses by DRIFT spectroscopy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6222, 2022.

EGU22-7504 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Exploring macroscopic properties of soil organic matter using modeling and molecular simulations 

Drazen Petrov, Yerko Escalona, Edgar Galicia, Daniel Tunega, Martin Gerzabek, and Chris Oostenbrink

Soil Organic Matter (SOM) is composed of a complex and heterogeneous mixture of organic compounds. It is of great importance to understand its molecular structure, the conformations and water accessibility, as well as the interfaces and reactivity of SOM with its surrounding. SOM extracts permitted for decades a systematic way of studying SOM via the use of standardized samples.  We used such standardized samples of the International Humic Substances Society (IHSS) to computationally explore the properties of SOM.

We used the Vienna Soil Organic Matter Modeler 2 (VSOMM2; Escalona et al. (2021); https://somm.boku.ac.at/) to produce representative, condensed-phase, atomistic models of IHSS samples. This online tool ensures greater chemical diversity of the models and reproduces the carbon distribution or organic composition estimated by NMR. Generated atomistic models were subjected to molecular dynamics simulations. We characterized these systems in order to observe differences in their structure and dynamics.

Our results indicate the importance of carboxyl and aromatic groups in the molecular interactions, specifically for their interactions with cations and indirectly for their aggregation properties. We also investigated the sorption properties of these systems by calculating the free energy of absorption of inserting a water molecule to the system, which values were affected by the water content, compaction and phases of the organic matter.

These investigations help improve our understanding of properties and behavior of soil organic matter at a molecular level that is not attainable to experiments. We hope that such studies will have a great impact on basic research involving SOM.

How to cite: Petrov, D., Escalona, Y., Galicia, E., Tunega, D., Gerzabek, M., and Oostenbrink, C.: Exploring macroscopic properties of soil organic matter using modeling and molecular simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7504, 2022.

EGU22-9057 | Presentations | SSS5.3 | Highlight

Long-term effects of different organic resource rates, quality and nitrogen fertilizer on SOC development and conversion efficiency across Kenya. 

Johan Six, Moritz Laub, Marijn Van de Broek, Antoine Couedel, Sam Mathu, Magdalena Necpalova, Wycliffe Waswa, Daniel Mugendi, Monicah Mucheru-Muna, Marc Corbeels, and Bernard Vanlauwe

Maize monoculture with low external inputs, as frequently practiced in sub-Saharan Africa, usually leads to the long-term loss of soil fertility. This threatens the already poor yields in the region. Practices that add organic and mineral resources to the soil therefore promise to counteract soil fertility loss by providing the potential feed-stock for microbes to build new soil organic matter. We studied the effect of organic and mineral resource addition from five organic amendment types of different quality (relative N, lignin and polyphenol contents) and quantity and from chemical nitrogen fertilizer, on soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil nitrogen in the 15 cm topsoil of four long-term trials in contrasted sites in Kenya. They had different climate and soil texture and lasted between 16 and 19 years. Treatments were identical among sites, the organic resources were Tithonia diversifolia (high quality and fast turnover) and Calliandra calothyrsus (high quality and slow turnover), stover of Zea mays (low quality and fast turnover), sawdust from Grevillea robusta trees (low quality and slow turnover) and locally available farmyard manure (undefined quality and slow turnover). The organic resources were added in the quantities of 1.2 and 4 t C ha-1 yr-1 and the experiments included a split-plot treatment of ±N addition (120 kg ha-1 in each of the two growing seasons per year).

Despite site-specific differences, the general trend across sites indicated that SOC is usually lost with all treatments. Typical losses ranged from 1.9% to 0.6% loss of initial SOC yr-1 for the control and the farmyard manure (at 4t C ha-1 year-1) respectively. Adding Calliandra or Tithonia at 4t C ha-1 yr-1 also enable to slow the loss (about 1.1% of initial SOC yr-1 lost). Nevertheless, the addition of 4t C ha-1 yr-1 farmyard manure and Calliandra calothyrsus, together with mineral N addition, achieved a gain in SOC over time only in the site which had lowest initial SOC contents (about 6 g C kg-1), a sand of 31% content and a climate that was suitable for maize growth. In contrast, another site with low initial SOC content, high sand content, but a less suitable climate, with frequent failures of the maize crop, lost SOC in all treatments. In the site with initially 25 g C kg-1, the farmyard manure treatment at 4t C ha-1 yr-1 with N addition was the only treatment that could maintain SOC, while in the site with initially highest SOC (about 30 g C kg-1), all treatments lost SOC. The mineral N addition, with the exception of two treatments in the lowest fertility site, had no significant effect on the response of SOC to the different organic resource treatments. Our results indicate that farmyard manure may be the most suitable resource to reduce losses of SOC, but increases may only be possible in sites with initially low SOC contents, e.g. where, because of sufficiently long cultivation activities, a new steady state with low SOC contents has already been attained.

How to cite: Six, J., Laub, M., Van de Broek, M., Couedel, A., Mathu, S., Necpalova, M., Waswa, W., Mugendi, D., Mucheru-Muna, M., Corbeels, M., and Vanlauwe, B.: Long-term effects of different organic resource rates, quality and nitrogen fertilizer on SOC development and conversion efficiency across Kenya., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9057, 2022.

EGU22-9088 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Drivers of the distribution of soil organic matter fractions along a geo-climatic gradient 

Daniel Wasner, Rose Abramoff, Erick Zagal, Marco Griepentrog, and Sebastian Dötterl

The concept of distinct soil organic matter (SOM) fractions – with differing formation pathways, stabilization mechanisms and responses to change – is a promising avenue to improve our understanding of soil carbon (C) dynamics. While there is widespread consensus on the general usefulness of conceptual fractions with specific functional implications, there is still a lack of information on the patterns with which they contribute to bulk soil organic carbon (SOC) stock at larger scales and across climatic and soil physicochemical gradients. In this study, we aimed to assess first the quantitative importance of three key SOM fractions across a diverse range of 12 soil groups with global significance. Secondly, we wanted to gain insights on the environmental drivers that shape the contribution of these fractions to SOC stocks.

Here we sampled a set of 35 grassland topsoils (0 – 10 cm) along a 3000 km north-south transect in Chile ranging from subpolar to Mediterranean climate, and covering 12 WRB major soil groups. Following a modified version of the protocol in Zimmermann et. al (2007), we partitioned the soils into three functional SOM fractions defined by particle size and density (free silt and clay, free particulate organic matter, stable microaggregates), enabling us to quantify SOC stocks and the relative contribution to SOC in these three fractions. In order to identify links between fractions and potential drivers of C stabilization, we further characterized extensively relevant physico-chemical properties of the soils, compiled climatic data of the sites and characterized OM maturity (DRIFT spectroscopy and Rock-Eval pyrolysis) as well as pedogenic, secondary Fe-, Al- and Mn-oxide concentrations through sequential extraction.

We found that the contributions of mineral-associated SOM fractions to bulk SOC varied strongly across the soil gradient, while the contribution of free particulate organic matter was comparatively stable and low. SOM associated with free silt and clay sized particles are the most important C reservoir in soils with less than 4 % SOC, whereas in soils with higher SOC content, the majority of the SOC is contained in stable microaggregates. The SOC stock in various fractions was sensitive to changes in temperature, pedogenic oxides, and OM input vs. decomposition. Comparison of OM maturity showed that free particulate OM and free silt and clay associated OM can be clearly distinguished, while OM in microaggregates is likely a mixture of both. However, drivers of OM composition in microaggregates could not be identified.

This study demonstrates that in SOC-rich soils, microaggregates represent a major fraction of bulk SOC, and that SOC stocks in key SOM fractions can be linked to distinct climatic and soil physicochemical factors.

How to cite: Wasner, D., Abramoff, R., Zagal, E., Griepentrog, M., and Dötterl, S.: Drivers of the distribution of soil organic matter fractions along a geo-climatic gradient, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9088, 2022.

Although most organic matter (OM) in soil is mineralized by microorganisms, the nonmicrobial processes, e.g., Fenton reactions and photo-degradation, strongly contribute to OM decomposition and CO2 emission and are the chemical background of many biotic transformations. Fenton oxidation is a catalytic reaction chain of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) with ferrous iron (Fe(II)) and Fe (oxyhydr)oxides that generates highly reactive hydroxyl radicals (HO) oxidizing OM to CO2. Reactive Fe (oxyhydr)oxides store at least one quarter (~600 Gt) of organic C in soil, which may be subjected to Fenton reactions in which nano-sized Fe (oxyhydr)oxides act as nanocatalysts. The Fenton mechanisms depend on the sources of reactive oxygen species (ROS): O2•−, H2O2 and HO. Because microorganisms continuously produce ROS, biotic Fenton chemistry is ubiquitous in all soils, especially with strong UV radiation, fluctuating O2 concentrations and redox, microbial hotspots such as rhizosphere and detritusphere, and high contents of Fe (oxyhydr)oxides. Charcoal and biochar catalyze ROS formation in soil as an electron shuttle or by electron transfer from the valence to the conduction band under UV irradiation. Despite the extremely short lifetime (from nanoseconds to a few days), ROS are continuously produced and sustain the ubiquity of chelators and Fe(III) reduction. For the first time we calculated the fundamental Eh-pH diagrams for ROS species and showed their relevance for Fenton reactions under soil conditions. HO as one of the most powerful oxidants (Eo = 2.8 V) provides the most energy release from Fenton reactions in soil. In some ecosystems (hot deserts; red soils in the tropics and wet subtropics) Fenton reactions contribute to OM oxidation to 30% and even exceed 50% of total CO2 emissions. Fenton reactions are omnipresent and play a dual role for soil C cycling: stimulate OM mineralization (including the most stable pools) and facilitate long-term C stabilization due to the increased recalcitrance of remaining OM and organo-mineral complex formation. Summarizing, Fenton reactions and their effects on OM decomposition and formation are an emerging research field that explains the chemical background of many oxidative enzymatic processes, may crucially change our views on C, energy and nutrient cycling in soils.

How to cite: Kuzyakov, Y. and Yu, G.-H.: Reactive oxygen species in soil: Abiotic mechanisms of biotic processes and consequences for organic matter and nutrient cycling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11390, 2022.

EGU22-11799 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Mechanisms controlling the emission and stabilization of carbon during soil drying-rewetting 

Albert C. Brangarí, Stefano Manzoni, and Johannes Rousk

Terrestrial ecosystems are continuously exposed to dry periods and rainfall events. These cycles of drying-rewetting cause strong variations in biochemical processes that alter the balance of soil carbon (C), affecting both its inputs and losses. The rewetting of dry soils results in large pulses of C dioxide to the atmosphere that can constitute a major fraction of the annual emissions in some ecosystems and, at the same time, promotes the sequestration of C into growing microorganisms. After rewetting, microbial growth and respiration can follow decoupled patterns depending on the intensity of the rewetting and the physiological status of the microbes—in turn, this decoupling can lead to contrasting fates of C between emission and stabilization into soil organic matter. Moreover, these patterns can be classified as either ‘resilient’ or ‘sensitive’, depending on the way C is used over time. Despite the significance of these dynamics for the C budget, the mechanisms controlling them are still not well understood.

To shed some light on this challenging problem, we simulated the soil-microbial response to drying-rewetting by using the process-based model EcoSMMARTS. The results indicated that the history of soil moisture affected the responses to rewetting by promoting microbial groups with specific survival strategies. The soils regularly exposed to ‘severe’ conditions (e.g., shallow horizons in semi-arid or Mediterranean ecosystems) exhibited resilient responses, whereas sensitive responses were obtained in soils from ‘milder’ environments (e.g., humid climates and deep horizons). The resilient responses were obtained when soil microbial communities could cope well with water-stress and could started synthesizing new biomass right after rewetting, which also triggered large respiration peaks induced via osmoregulation. In contrast, sensitive responses were found in communities that could not withstand the effects of drying-rewetting, which led to a delay in microbial growth and sustained C mineralization by cell residues. The disruption of soil aggregates during drying-rewetting was also identified as the major contributor of the C sources fuelling the rewetting responses. By allowing us to attribute rewetting responses to individual processes (physiological, physical, or ecological), these model results improve our understanding of the mechanisms that govern the emission and stabilization of C in soils during drying-rewetting.

 

How to cite: Brangarí, A. C., Manzoni, S., and Rousk, J.: Mechanisms controlling the emission and stabilization of carbon during soil drying-rewetting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11799, 2022.

EGU22-12247 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Energy content of soil organic matter pools under cropland and grassland sites 

Nina Andre, Martin Schugmann, Anna Kühnel, Martin Wiesmeier, and Steffen Schweizer

The storage of organic carbon in soils is regulated by different physicochemical mechanisms. The physical fractionation of soil organic matter (OM) into particulate and mineral-associated pools has advanced our knowledge based on these operationally-defined different storage forms of organic carbon in soils. Attempts to integrate a thermodynamic perspective to decipher mechanisms of soil organic carbon storage require the integration of our understanding of different physicochemical mechanisms. Here we analyzed the energy contents related to different pools of OM using differential scanning calorimetry. Various pools of OM were isolated by combined density and size fractionation differentiating free particulate OM (fPOM), occluded particulate OM larger than 20 µm (oPOM>20 µm), occluded particulate OM smaller than 20 µm (oPOM<20 µm) and mineral-associated OM smaller than 20 µm (MOM<20 µm). We compared cropland and grassland sites from long-term monitoring sites across Bavaria (Germany). Our aim was to relate the novel energy analyses with characterizations of the carbon storage and OM composition. In the cropland sites we found an energy gradient with increasing energy content (J/mg C) across fPOM, oPOM>20 µm, oPOM<20 µm, MOM<20 µm. The increasing energy gradient was independent of different carbon contents and correlated with decreasing C:N ratios. These results indicate an important role of energy accumulation through association of OM with minerals along the gradual decomposition of different OM pools. A relationship of the energy content with the alkyl/O-alkyl ratio serving as a proxy of decomposition based on 13C NMR spectroscopy was also related with the energy content but to a lower extent. In the grassland sites, the energy content gradient of different OM pools was in a similar range and the C/N ratios of the POM fractions were also lower compared to the cropland sites. By comparing energy stored in OM pools from cropland and grassland sites, we will discuss potential implications of energy analyses for our understanding of soil organic carbon storage.

How to cite: Andre, N., Schugmann, M., Kühnel, A., Wiesmeier, M., and Schweizer, S.: Energy content of soil organic matter pools under cropland and grassland sites, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12247, 2022.

EGU22-12819 | Presentations | SSS5.3

Assessment of short-term effect of CNPS stoichiometry on SOC and soil properties using Vis-NIR spectra 

Sharan Panthi, Nazish Amin, and Sharon O'Rourke

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is known to play a crucial role in soil quality. The general approach to enhance SOC is to minimise soil disturbance and ensure fresh C-inputs to the soil. However, current sustainable land management practices do not always result in an increase in SOC and are not precise enough to prescribe C-inputs to achieve a target soil C stock and management of soil quality. Recently, CNPS stoichiometry has been shown to limit the stabilised SOC pool. The aim of this study was to test CNPS stoichiometry to increase organic matter (OM) mineralization and examine the effect on soil properties following straw incorporated with supplementary nutrients in a soil incubation experiment. The objectives were to (i) quantify the dynamic change in SOC and particulate organic matter (POM) in response to straw incorporation with and without supplementary nutrients based on CNPS stoichiometry and (ii) determine if the limits of detection for visible near-infrared spectroscopy (vis-NIR) can capture short-term change in SOC and POM. Five soils (40g) varying in clay content were incubated for 12 weeks at 25℃ and 70 % field capacity. Soils received straw at a rate of 8 t/ha with and without supplementary nutrients (N, P and S) based on stoichiometric inputs. Vis-NIR measurements were collected for the soil samples post incubation with soil structure intact and and removed (sieved to <2 mm). Laboratory analysis of soil properties is underway. Preliminary exploratory analysis of the spectra was performed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Preliminary results of the PCA show that the first two principal components captured the soil variability (PC1 56.09%, PC2 36.0%) however no obvious treatment effect was observed. Further modelling work will investigate if the straw treatments with and without nutrient supplementation produced a measurable change in SOC and POM and if the dynamic change in soil carbon can be detected in the spectra using regression analysis.

How to cite: Panthi, S., Amin, N., and O'Rourke, S.: Assessment of short-term effect of CNPS stoichiometry on SOC and soil properties using Vis-NIR spectra, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12819, 2022.

EGU22-13453 | Presentations | SSS5.3 | Highlight

Soil carbon pools in forested areas affected by fires after the application of restoration measures 

Eugenia Gimeno-García, Ester Carbó, Ricardo Ruiz-Peinado, Eduardo López Senespleda, Stephanie Jalabert, Philippe Chéry, Thomas Pétillon, Francisco Castro Rego, Inês Marques Duarte, and Victoria Lerma-Arce

Wildfires can promote changes in soil organic carbon pools (SOCp) mainly as consequence of the input of ashes and charred materials from the scorched vegetation; and/or the removal of litter layer and organic matter from the upper soil centimetres affected by high temperatures. Moreover, post-fire management practices can also cause changes in the different forms of organic carbon in the soil (from the most labile to the most recalcitrant).

In the REMAS project, a methodology to study the different SOCp is proposed to assess the effects of the application of different management post-fire practices over the burned areas: (1) cut and remove burned trunks, (2) shrub clearing letting the masticated debris on the soil carried out 6-8 years after the fires and, (3) no intervention treatment. The SOCp analysed include hot-water extractable C, particulate organic C, associated to the mineral fraction and total organic C. The study areas include diverse forest ecosystems from France (Pinus pinaster Ait.), Portugal (Quercus suber L.) and Spain (Pinus halepensis Mill.and Pinus sylvestris L.). Results show variable effects of the management practices on the different organic C pools, mainly over the most labile ones.

Acknowledgements: The REMAS project SOE3/P4/E0954 is co-financed by the Interreg Sudoe Program through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

How to cite: Gimeno-García, E., Carbó, E., Ruiz-Peinado, R., López Senespleda, E., Jalabert, S., Chéry, P., Pétillon, T., Castro Rego, F., Marques Duarte, I., and Lerma-Arce, V.: Soil carbon pools in forested areas affected by fires after the application of restoration measures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13453, 2022.

CL3.1 – Climate change: from regional to global

Sea level change affects hundreds of millions of people living in coastal regions. In addition to measuring the total sea level change via satellite altimetry, it is important to understand individual mass and steric contributors on global and regional scales. Consequently, deriving accurate global and regional sea level budgets is of key interest for understanding the underlying processes and aid in assessing future impacts of sea level rise. Furthermore, steric sea level change is related to the Earth’s Energy Imbalance and thus a key indicator of global warming.

The global fingerprint inversion method (Rietbroek et al., 2016) allows to combine GRACE(-FO) gravity measurements and along-track satellite altimetry observations in order to jointly estimate the individual mass and steric changes in a consistent manner. We use an extended fingerprint approach which allows further separation of the ocean mass variations into contributions from the melting of land glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets as well as terrestrial hydrology effects and changes of the internal mass transport within the ocean. Furthermore, the updated inversion presented here, aims at splitting the steric sea level change into contributions of the upper 700m and the deeper ocean.

Here, we present the inversion results of a closed global sea level budget (within 0.1 mm/yr) during the GRACE era (2002-04 till 2015-12) attributing 1.68 mm/yr and 1.40 mm/yr to ocean mass and steric changes, respectively. Compared to state-of-the art studies the steric contribution is found to be in line while the mass estimates are slightly lower. We provide budgets for major ocean basins and compare our results to individually processed GRACE, altimetry and ocean re-analysis datasets as well as published estimates. Furthermore, we will show preliminary results when extending the inversion to incorporate additional GRACE-FO data. Finally, we extent our investigations to regional sea level budgets for selected regions of interest, such as the Bay of Bengal or the North Sea, which are dominated by completely different sea level components.

How to cite: Uebbing, B., Rietbroek, R., and Kusche, J.: Investigating global and regional sea level budgets by combining GRACE(-FO) and altimetry data in a joint fingerprint inversion, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2190, 2022.

EGU22-2489 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Introducing WALIS, the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines Version 1.0 

Alessio Rovere, Deirdre D. Ryan, Matteo Vacchi, Andrea Dutton, Alexander Simms, and Colin Murray-Wallace

We present Version 1.0 of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS), a global database containing samples and sea-level proxies dated to Marine Isotope Stage 5 (~70 to 130 ka). The database was built through manuscripts and associated datasets compiled in a Special Issue of the journal Earth System Science data (https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/special_issue1055.html). We collated the single contributions (archived in Zenodo at this link: https://zenodo.org/communities/walis_database/) into an open-access standalone database. Database documentation is available at this link: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3961544. Version 1.0 of the database contains 4005 sea-level index points and 4390 dated samples connected with several tables containing relevant metadata (e.g., elevation measurement techniques, sea-level datums, and literature references).

How to cite: Rovere, A., Ryan, D. D., Vacchi, M., Dutton, A., Simms, A., and Murray-Wallace, C.: Introducing WALIS, the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines Version 1.0, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2489, 2022.

EGU22-2577 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Evidence of acceleration in sea-level rise for the North Sea 

Riccardo Riva, David Steffelbauer, Jos Timmermans, Jan Kwakkel, and Mark Bakker

Global mean sea-level rise (SLR) has accelerated since 1900 from less than 2 mm/year during most of the century to more than 3 mm/year since 1993. At the regional scale, detection of an acceleration in SLR is difficult, because the long-term sea-level signal is obscured by large inter-annual variations with multi-year trends that are easily one order of magnitude larger than global mean values. Here, we developed a time series approach to determine whether regional SLR is accelerating based on tide gauge data. We applied the approach to eight 100-year records in the southern North Sea and detected, for the first time, a common breakpoint in the early 1990s. The mean SLR rate at the eight stations increases from 1.7±0.3 mm/year before the breakpoint to 2.7±0.4 mm/year after the breakpoint (95% confidence interval), which is unprecedented in the regional instrumental record. These findings are robust provided that the record starts before 1970 and ends after 2015.

How to cite: Riva, R., Steffelbauer, D., Timmermans, J., Kwakkel, J., and Bakker, M.: Evidence of acceleration in sea-level rise for the North Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2577, 2022.

EGU22-2605 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Inverting marine terrace morphology to constrain paleo sea-level 

Gino de Gelder, Navid Hedjazian, Anne-Morwenn Pastier, Laurent Husson, and Thomas Bodin

Quantifying paleo sea-level changes is an important challenge given its intricate relation with paleo-climate, -ice-sheets and geodynamics, but pre-Holocene uncertainties currently span several tens of meters. The world’s coastlines provide an enormous geomorphologic dataset, and recent modelling studies have showed their potential in constraining paleo sea-level through forward landscape evolution modeling. We take a next step, by applying a Bayesian approach to invert the geometry of marine terrace sequences to paleo sea-level. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method, we test our model on synthetic profiles and two observed marine terrace sequences. The synthetic profiles – with known input parameters – show that there are optimal values for uplift rate, erosion rate, initial slope and wave base depth to obtain a well-constrained inversion. Both the inversion of synthetic profiles and a terrace profile from Santa Cruz (Ca, US) show how sea-level peaks are easier to constrain than sea-level troughs, but that also solutions for peaks tend to be non-unique. Synthetic profiles and profiles from the Corinth Rift (Greece) both show how inverting multiple profiles from a sequence can lead to a narrower range of possible paleo sea-level, especially for sea-level troughs. This last result emphasizes the potential of inverting coastal morphology: joint inversion of globally distributed marine terrace profiles may eventually reveal not only local relative sea-level histories, but catalyse a better understanding of both global paleo sea-level and glacio-isostatic adjustments.

How to cite: de Gelder, G., Hedjazian, N., Pastier, A.-M., Husson, L., and Bodin, T.: Inverting marine terrace morphology to constrain paleo sea-level, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2605, 2022.

EGU22-3307 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Drivers for seasonal variability in sea level around the China seas 

Ying Qu, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Joanne Williams, and John Moore

Globally variable ocean and atmospheric dynamics lead to spatially complex seasonal cycles in sea level. The China Seas, that is the Bohai, Yellow, East China and the South China seas, is a region with strong seasonal amplitudes, and straddles the transition between tropical and temperature zones, monsoonal and westerlies, shelf and deep ocean zones. Here we investigate the drivers for seasonal variability in sea level from tide gauge records, satellite altimetry along with output from the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean) model including sea surface height and ocean bottom pressure along with meteorological data in the China Seas. The seasonal cycle accounts for 37% - 94% of sea level variability in 81 tide gauge records, ranging from 18 to 59 cm. We divided the seasonal cycles into four types: 1) an asymmetric sinusoid; 2) a clearly defined peak on a flat background; 3) a relatively flat signal; 4) a symmetric co-sinusoid. Type 1 is found in northern China and Taiwan, Korea, Japan and The Philippines where Inverse Barometer (IB) effects dominates seasonality along with a steric contribution. The seasonal monsoon associated with barotropic response and freshwater exchange play important roles in type 2, (eastern and southern Chinese coasts), type 3 (East Malaysia) and type 4 (Vietnam and Gulf of Thailand). IB corrected seasonal cycle amplitudes are larger in continental shelf areas than the deep ocean, with a maximum in the Gulf of Thailand, and NEMO underestimates the seasonal amplitude along the coast by nearly 50%.

How to cite: Qu, Y., Jevrejeva, S., Williams, J., and Moore, J.: Drivers for seasonal variability in sea level around the China seas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3307, 2022.

EGU22-3342 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Local and remote forcing of sea-level variation off the northeast US coast 

Tong Lee, Ou Wang, Christopher Piecuch, Ichiro Fukumori, Ian Fenty, Thomas Frederikse, Dimitris Menemenlis, Rui Ponte, and Hong Zhang

The relative contributions of local and remote wind stress and air-sea buoyancy forcing to sea-level variations along the East Coast of the United States are not well quantified, hindering the understanding of sea-level predictability there. Here, we use an adjoint sensitivity analysis together with an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean state estimate to establish the causality of interannual sea-level variations near the Nantucket island, the approximate geographic center of the northeast US coast where sea-level fluctuations are coherent. Wind forcing explains 68% of the Nantucket interannual sea-level variance, while wind and buoyancy forcing together explain 97% of the variance. Wind stress contribution is near-local, primarily from the New England shelf northeast of Nantucket. We disprove a previous hypothesis about Labrador Sea wind stress being an important driver of Nantucket sea-level variations and another hypothesis suggesting local wind stress being a secondary driver. Buoyancy forcing, as important as wind stress in some years, includes local contributions as well as remote contributions from the subpolar North Atlantic that influence Nantucket sea level a few years later. Our rigorous adjoint-based analysis corroborates previous correlation-based studies that sea-level variations in the subpolar gyre and the northeast US coast can both be influenced by subpolar buoyancy forcing. Forward forcing perturbation experiments further indicate remote buoyancy forcing affects Nantucket sea level mostly through slow advective processes, although waves can cause rapid Nantucket sea level response within a few weeks. Our results quantifying the spatial distribution of forcing contributions to Nantucket sea-level variations are also useful for the development of machine-learning models for predicting sea-level variation off the northeast US coast.

How to cite: Lee, T., Wang, O., Piecuch, C., Fukumori, I., Fenty, I., Frederikse, T., Menemenlis, D., Ponte, R., and Zhang, H.: Local and remote forcing of sea-level variation off the northeast US coast, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3342, 2022.

EGU22-3512 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Regionalizing the Sea-level Budget Using a Neural Network Approach 

Carolina Machado Lima de Camargo, Marta Marcos, Ismael Hernandez-Carrasco, Tim H.J. Hermans, Riccardo E.M. Riva, and Aimée B.A. Slangen

Understanding the drivers of present-day sea-level change is vital for improving sea-level projections and for adaptation and mitigation plans against sea-level rise. Sea-level budget (SLB) studies focus on attributing the observed sea-level change to its different drivers (steric and barystatic changes). While the global mean SLB is closed, explaining the drivers of sea-level change on a finer spatial scale leads to large discrepancies. Recent studies have shown that closing the regional budget on a regular 1x1˚ grid is not possible due to limitations of the observations itself, but also due to the spatial patterns and variability of the underlying processes. Consequently, the regional budget has been mainly analyzed on a basin-wide scale.

 In this study we use Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), an unsupervised learning neural network, to extract regions of coherent sea-level variability based on 27 years of satellite altimetry data. The SOM clusters have a higher level of spatial detail compared to entire ocean basins, while being large enough to allow for a consistent sea-level budget analysis. The clusters also show how sea-level variability is interconnected among different ocean regions (for example, due to large-scale climate patterns). We perform the clustering analysis on the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans separately, obtaining a total of 18 clusters. Preliminary results show that we can close the sea-level budget from 1993-2017 in 67% of the clusters. The regions with discrepancies highlight important regional processes that are affecting sea-level change and have not thus far been included in the sea-level budget. In this way, using neural networks provides new insight into regional sea-level variability and its drivers.

How to cite: Machado Lima de Camargo, C., Marcos, M., Hernandez-Carrasco, I., Hermans, T. H. J., Riva, R. E. M., and Slangen, A. B. A.: Regionalizing the Sea-level Budget Using a Neural Network Approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3512, 2022.

EGU22-3934 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Sea level projections portal for communicating impacts to policymakers 

Andrew Matthews and Sveta Jevrejeva

Small island developing states are particularly at risk from extreme water levels and coastal erosion. Policy makers require information to support decision making on how to improve resilience and adapt to future changes. Here we present a web portal designed to display different sea level projections across the Caribbean Sea, developed as part of our contribution to the UK Government’s Commonwealth Marine Economies (CME) programme and the UK Natural Environment Research Council’s ACCORD programme.

The portal has been designed using free and open-source software, and is self-contained, allowing it to be deployed on local partner websites with minimal effort. The responsive design allows the portal to work as well on as it does on PCs.

Currently the portal displays projected sea level for over 50 locations across the Caribbean, along with sea level data available at the site, but extra sites can be added easily. Quality controlled data has been used where possible; where this is not available, we have used automated software developed earlier in the CME programme to perform basic quality control.

Similarly, the portal provides projections from four sea level scenarios based on earlier National Oceanography Centre work, but other projections can be added by updating configuration files.

The portal can be accessed at https://psmsl.org/accord/projections.html

How to cite: Matthews, A. and Jevrejeva, S.: Sea level projections portal for communicating impacts to policymakers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3934, 2022.

EGU22-4091 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

How robust are estimates of hydrology–driven global sea level change based on modelling and GRACE data? 

Juergen Kusche, Christan Mielke, Olga Engels, Li Fupeng, and Bernd Uebbing

One of the less well-known contributions to global sea level change is the net mass loss or gain of non-cryospheric land water storage, here abbreviated as hydrology-driven global mean sea level rise (HDGMSL). HDGMSL is due to natural variability in the climate system and direct and indirect anthropogenic processes, such as reservoir building, deforestation and land use change, land glacier mass imbalance,  groundwater depletion, and changes in the atmosphere-ocean water fluxes. It has a large inter-annual variability, as  otherwise only observed in the thermo-steric contribution to sea level, and the sign of its net rate over the last decades is still debated.

Here, we revisit estimates of HDGMSL from GRACE and from global hydrological models. We scrutinize the robustness of estimates in the presence of climate variability within the limited GRACE time-frame, in particular large ENSO modes. To this end we make use of an ensemble of three GRACE solutions and a 32-member ensemble of the WGHM hydrological model where various parameters were realistically perturbed. Moreover we consider two different 40-year reconstructions of terrestrial water storage that were trained on GRACE data, two methods of mode decomposition, and we employ different trend estimators including a state-space parameterization. We conclude that HDGMSL was positive in the GRACE time frame with different estimators pointing to rates between -0.01 and 0.30 mm/a, which is probably not representative for a 40-year span. In addition, all conventional error estimates are found to be over-optimistic.

How to cite: Kusche, J., Mielke, C., Engels, O., Fupeng, L., and Uebbing, B.: How robust are estimates of hydrology–driven global sea level change based on modelling and GRACE data?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4091, 2022.

EGU22-4228 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Sea level rise along the coastline of Colombia: A vulnerability assessment 

Hannes Nevermann, Jorge Nicolas Becerra Gomez, Peter Fröhle, and Nima Shokri

Abstract

In recent decades, the sea level has risen notably compared to the most recent millennia. This poses serious threats to environment and human population over the next century especially in coastal zones. Every region has climatic and non-climatic drivers of sea level rise which needs to be considered when adaptation and mitigation policies are implemented. We analyzed the coastal consequences of sea level rise along the Caribbean and Pacific coastlines of Colombia. Sea level rise projections published in August 2021 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the 6th assessment report were used in this study (IPCC, 2021). Five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for the 21st century (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5. SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) were examined. Our results indicate a sea level rise of 1.04 m in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) which could cause land loss in an area of 2840.64 km². The area at risk will impact 12 departments or 86 municipalities with different social, environmental, economic, and cultural conditions that need to be considered when implementing mitigation policies. Our results illustrate how the projected sea level changes influence a variety of parameters such as area at the potential risk of inundation, land use of the affected area and general socio-economic impacts along the Caribbean and Pacific coastlines of Colombia.

 

Reference

IPCC (2021), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.

How to cite: Nevermann, H., Becerra Gomez, J. N., Fröhle, P., and Shokri, N.: Sea level rise along the coastline of Colombia: A vulnerability assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4228, 2022.

EGU22-4414 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

High-resolution climate ensemble reveals low confidence in projected changes in storm surges for the mid-century 

Sanne Muis, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts, José A. Á. Antolínez, Dewi Le Bars, Job C. Dullaart, Trang Minh Duong, Li Erikson, Rein Haarsma, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Andrea O'Neill, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Malcolm Roberts, Kun Yan, Martin Verlaan, and Philip J. Ward

In the coming decades, regions across the globe will be faced with increases in coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and changes in climate extremes. In a collective effort, we have produced new extreme sea level projections derived from an ensemble of high-resolution climate models. Our approach is based on the Global Tide and Surge Model forced with model outputs from the HighResMIP experiments. The HighResMIP models have a much higher spatial resolution than the previous generation of climate models, and can better resolve storms, including tropical cyclones. The dataset has global coverage and spans the period 1950-2050. The dataset provides: 1) timeseries of storm surges, astronomical tides, and total still water levels; and 2) water level statistics for different time slices, including percentiles and return periods.

In this contribution we focus on storm surges and have a first look at model performance for present-day climate conditions and at projected changes. Comparison of the 1 in 10-year surge levels against the ERA5 reanalysis reveals a large spatial bias for some of the HighResMIP models, highlighting the need for multi-model ensembles and bias correction. Comparison of the 1 in 10-year surge levels between the 1951-1980 and 2021-2050 period, shows that some regions, such as Northwest Europe, Alaska, China, and Patagonia, may be faced with an increase in storm surges (>0.1 m), while other regions, such as the Mediterranean and South Australia may see a decrease in storm surges. Overall, the projected changes are characterized by large intermodel variability due the uncertainties that arise from the climate models, internal variability, and extreme value statistics. Future research should aim to better constrain the uncertainties, which can be achieved by a more in-depth exploration of the changes in the meteorological conditions, enlarging the model ensemble, and the implementation of bias correction methods.

The full datasets will soon become openly available at the C3S Climate Data Store and can be used to inform climate impact assessments.

How to cite: Muis, S., Aerts, J. C. J. H., A. Á. Antolínez, J., Le Bars, D., Dullaart, J. C., Minh Duong, T., Erikson, L., Haarsma, R., Irazoqui Apecechea, M., O'Neill, A., Ranasinghe, R., Roberts, M., Yan, K., Verlaan, M., and Ward, P. J.: High-resolution climate ensemble reveals low confidence in projected changes in storm surges for the mid-century, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4414, 2022.

EGU22-4426 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Seasonal signal and regional sea level variability over the past 25 years 

Svetlana Jevrejeva and Hindumathi Palanisamy

In this study we have quantified the role of seasonal cycles in globally observed sea level variability from satellite altimetry over 1993-2018. We show the largest seasonal variability, with contribution more than 80% of total variance, is detected in particular regions- the marginal seas over the continental shelf regions in South East Asia and Gulf of Carpentaria, tropical Atlantic along the coastal regions of east Atlantic Ocean, Arabian Sea, regions of Mediterranean, Red Sea with amplitudes greater than 20cm in majority of these locations. The rest of the ocean, mainly deep open ocean, exhibits strong signatures of non-seasonal variability related to interannual and longer scale cycles.

For the regions with large seasonal variability (e.g. South East Asia coastline), analysis of seasonal variability demonstrate a good agreement in amplitude and phase from satellite altimetry and tide gauges records. While steric contribution can explain more than 80% of total variability in the deep ocean areas, in shallow areas we explain a large part of variability though wind driven during the two monsoon seasons, and not attributed to the steric changes.

How to cite: Jevrejeva, S. and Palanisamy, H.: Seasonal signal and regional sea level variability over the past 25 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4426, 2022.

EGU22-5156 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

High-resolution projections of extreme sea level changes along the coasts of western Europe 

Alisée Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Stéphane Law-Chune, Aurore Voldoire, Guillaume Reffray, and Lotfi Aouf

Extreme sea levels (ESLs) are a major threat for coastal and low-lying regions. Climate change induced sea level (SL) rise will increase the frequency of ESLs. Projections of ESLs are thus of great interest for coastal risk assessment and decision-making. SL projections are typically produced using global climate models (GCMs). However, GCMs do not explicitly resolve key processes driving ESL changes at the coast (e.g. waves, tides). In this study, a regional model IBI-CCS is set up to refine SL projections of a GCM over the north-eastern Atlantic region bordering western Europe using dynamical downscaling. For a more complete representation of processes driving coastal ESL changes, tides and atmospheric surface pressure forcing are explicitly resolved in IBI-CCS in addition to the ocean general circulation. Furthermore, to include the wave setup contribution to ESLs, a dynamical downscaling of a wave global model is performed over the same north-eastern Atlantic domain using the currents and sea level outputs of the IBI-CCS regional ocean model. All the regional simulations are performed over the 1950 to 2100 period for two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5).

Comparisons to reanalyses and observations over the 1993-2014 indicate that ESLs are satisfactorily represented in the regional simulations. In a second phase, the projected changes in ESLs are analyzed, particularly in term of changes in return levels and return periods. The coupling effects between the key processes driving ESL changes at the coast are investigated. We notably assess the influence of the wave setup contribution to ESLs and to projected changes in ESLs and to their return periods. In addition, the impact of accounting for hourly sea level changes in the wave regional model on ESLs and projections of ESLs is estimated.

How to cite: Chaigneau, A., Melet, A., Law-Chune, S., Voldoire, A., Reffray, G., and Aouf, L.: High-resolution projections of extreme sea level changes along the coasts of western Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5156, 2022.

EGU22-5203 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Mediterranean coastal sea level reconstruction based on tide gauge observations 

Jorge Ramos Alcántara, Damià Gomis Bosch, and Gabriel Jordà Sánchez

In order to carry out a proper coastal management it is compulsory to have oceanographic databases that accurately characterize the spatiotemporal variability of sea level along the coast. A first source of sea level observations are tide gauges, which cover different time periods, some of them dating back to the 17th century. Whereas tide gauges generally provide very accurate measurements, their main limitation is that they are point-wise measurements with a heterogeneous spatial distribution and temporal coverage. Therefore, it is difficult to represent the complexity of sea level variability at the coast directly from tide gauge observations. Since 1992, sea level measurements provided by satellite altimetry are also available. This technique has a quasi-global coverage, and by minimising all sources of error affecting the measurements, an accuracy close to 1 cm can be achieved. However, altimetric products have a limited spatial and temporal resolution due to the separation between adjacent satellite ground tracks and to the revisiting time of the satellites. Most important, the accuracy of altimetry observations decreases very rapidly near the coast; despite the advances reached in recent years, standard altimetric data are only available from 5-10 km offshore.

As an alternative to coastal altimetric products, in this work we develop a new methodology to reconstruct coastal sea level from a number of tide gauge observations, which in our case is applied to the western basin of the Mediterranean sea. The reconstruction covers all coastal regions and has the spatial and temporal resolution required to characterise coastal processes. The sea level reconstruction is based on a multiscale optimal interpolation where the spatial correlations between tide gauges and all the coastal points has to be determined prior to the interpolation. In our case, these correlations are computed from the outputs of a high-resolution numerical model. As for observations, for the monthly reconstruction we use PSMSL tide gauge records, which cover the period from 1884 to 2015. For the daily reconstruction we use the series of the GESLA-2 data set, which cover from 1980 to 2015.

A cross-validation test developed to validate the skills of the method shows that our reconstruction clearly outperforms altimetric and modelling products at different time scales, and therefore represents a valuable contribution to the attempts of recovering coastal sea level. Thus, the obtained reconstruction has been used to complement the characterization of open sea level variability in the western Mediterranean previously done by other authors, allowing us to estimate coastal sea level trends, and to examine the correlation between Western Mediterranean coastal sea level and the main North Atlantic climate indices. The limitations and applicability of the method to other regions will also be discussed in the presentation.

How to cite: Ramos Alcántara, J., Gomis Bosch, D., and Jordà Sánchez, G.: Mediterranean coastal sea level reconstruction based on tide gauge observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5203, 2022.

EGU22-5281 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

The impact of continuous space and time-resolving vertical land motion on relative sea level change 

Julius Oelsmann, Marta Marcos, Marcello Passaro, Laura Sánchez, Denise Dettmering, and Florian Seitz

Vertical land motion (VLM) is a major contributor to relative sea level change (RSLC). Hence, understanding and estimating VLM is critical for the investigation of contemporary and projected coastal RSLC and the allocation of its uncertainties. However, there are several challenges involved in the determination of the linear component of VLM. Firstly, the sparse and inhomogeneous distribution of point-wise VLM observations hinder the direct analysis of VLM continuously in space along the coastline. Secondly, the commonly applied working-hypothesis that VLM can be generally assumed as ‘linear’, is not entirely valid for regions, which are affected by nonlinear processes such as earthquakes, surface mass loading changes or other phenomena. Thus, in order to overcome the limitations of data-availability and to account for time-variable VLM, we develop a new approach to estimate continuous time- and space-resolving (3D) VLM over the period 1995-2020.

We apply a Bayesian Principal Component Analysis to a global network of quality controlled VLM observations (GNSS data and differences of satellite altimetry and tide gauge observations) to extract common modes of variability and to cope with the incomplete VLM data. The estimated modes represent a superposition of large scale VLM fingerprints. These include linear motion signatures, e.g., associated with the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), as well as regional patterns of coherent responses to earthquakes or terrestrial water storage changes, which exhibit inter-annual to decadal variability. To generate the 3D VLM reconstruction, the VLM fingerprints are interpolated in space with a Bayesian transdimensional regression, which automatically infers the spatial resolution based on the distribution of the data.

Our approach not only provides an essential observation-based alternative to previously employed VLM estimates from GIA models or interpolated VLM maps, but also allows to directly attribute VLM trend uncertainties to the temporal variability estimated over the period of observation. We combine the VLM dataset with century-long tide gauge RSLC observations to demonstrate the limitations of extrapolating nonlinear VLM back in time and to identify regional differences (in the order of mm/year) of contemporary absolute sea level (ASL) change (1900-2015) w.r.t. a recent sea level reconstruction, which employs a GIA-VLM signature only. Using the present-day VLM estimates, we disentangle the contributions of VLM and projected ASL change (from CMIP6 models) and uncertainties to RSLC (2020-2150). The regional RSLC error budget analysis enables the identification of regions where robust assessments of future RSLC are feasible and where VLM uncertainties dominate the projected ASL uncertainties, while explaining up to 75% of the combined uncertainties. Besides these applications, the VLM estimate represents a vital source of information for various sea level studies focused on the analysis of tide gauge or satellite altimetry observations in coastal areas.

How to cite: Oelsmann, J., Marcos, M., Passaro, M., Sánchez, L., Dettmering, D., and Seitz, F.: The impact of continuous space and time-resolving vertical land motion on relative sea level change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5281, 2022.

EGU22-6530 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Common Era sea-level budgets of North America 

Jennifer Walker, Robert Kopp, Timothy Shaw, Geoff Richards, and Benjamin Horton

A sea-level budget improves understanding of driving processes and their relative contributions. However, most sea-level budget assessments are limited to the 20th and 21st centuries and are global in scale. Here, we estimate the sea-level budget on centennial to millennial timescales of the Common Era (last 2000 years). We expand upon previous analysis of sites along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast (Walker et al., 2021) and produce site-specific sea-level budgets for all of the eastern and western North American coastlines and Gulf coast. This broader scope further improves understanding of the temporal evolution and variability of driving processes of sea-level changes in the past and present, and which will shape such changes in the future.

To produce the sea-level budgets, we use an updated global database of instrumental and proxy sea-level records coupled with a spatiotemporal model. Using the unique spatial scales of driving processes, we separate relative sea-level records into global, regional, and local-scale components. Preliminary results along the eastern North American coastline reveal that each budget is dominated by regional-scale, temporally-linear processes driven by glacial isostatic adjustment until at least the mid-19th century. This signal exhibits a spatial gradient, ranging from 1.0 ± 0.02 mm/yr (1σ) in Newfoundland to a maximum of 1.6 ± 0.02 mm/yr in southern New Jersey to 0.5 ± 0.02 mm/yr in Florida. Non-linear regional and local-scale processes, such as ocean/atmosphere dynamics and groundwater withdrawal, are smaller in magnitude and vary temporally and spatially. The most significant change to the budgets is the increasing influence of the global signal due to ice melt and thermal expansion since ~1800 CE, which reaches a 20th century rate of 1.3 ± 0.1 mm/yr, accounting for 43-65% of each budget.

How to cite: Walker, J., Kopp, R., Shaw, T., Richards, G., and Horton, B.: Common Era sea-level budgets of North America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6530, 2022.

EGU22-7733 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Decadal changes of the Adriatic sea level – exploring the combined effect of sea level rise and climate regime’s shift 

Mia Pupić Vurilj, Jadranka Šepić, and Pave Pilić

In this study, an analysis of the observed Adriatic mean sea level time series has been carried out in order to determine the primary causes of the changes documented during the last 50 years.  Monthly sea level data were downloaded from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level for seven stations located along the northern and eastern Adriatic coast: Venice, Trieste, Rovinj, Bakar, Zadar, Split and Dubrovnik. Significant positive sea level trend, related to climate change, was detected at the majority of the stations. Further on, using Rodionov’s regime shift index algorithm, several regime shifts were detected. The first pronounced regime shift occurred in 1989 resulting with mean sea level lower than usual for an average of 4.37 cm; the second regime shift occurred in 1996 when mean sea level increased for an average of 2.07 cm; and the third regime shift, which is still on-going, started in 2009 when mean sea level abruptly increased to 5.3 cm above average.  A relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea level data has been explored, using both monthly and yearly data. High and significant correlation between the two was established for all data, and in particular for the winter season (December, January, February, March). All climate shifts were related to pronounced changes of NAO. The negative shift starting in 1989 was related to the positive phase of NAO, i.e. to weaker cyclonic activity over the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea. Oppositely, the two latter positive regime shifts were related to significant decrease and negative phases of NAO, with NAO reaching the most negative values of the entire observation period during the shift starting in 2009. Negative phase of NAO corresponds to stronger cyclonic activity over the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea. In conclusion, documented rise of the Adriatic sea level during the last 50 years, and in particular accelerated rise during the last 20 years represent a combination of mean sea level rise due to climate change and due to atmospherically induced shift of climate regimes.

How to cite: Pupić Vurilj, M., Šepić, J., and Pilić, P.: Decadal changes of the Adriatic sea level – exploring the combined effect of sea level rise and climate regime’s shift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7733, 2022.

EGU22-8092 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Synergistic use of tide gauges, satellite altimetry and GPS data for sea level studies 

Francesco De Biasio and Stefano Vignudelli

The relationship between satellite-derived absolute sea level change rates, tide gauge (TG) observations of relative sea level change and global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical land motion (VLM) at local scale has been investigated in previous studies [eg. Vignudelli et al., 2018]. The paucity of collocated TG-GPS data and the lack of a well-established mathematical frame in which simultaneous and optimal solutions can be derived, have emphasized the difficulty of deriving spatially-consistent information on the sea level rates. Other studies have claimed the possibility to set locally isolated information into a coherent regional framework using a constrained linear inverse problem approach [Kuo et al., 2004; Wöppelmann and Marcos, 2012].

The approach cited in the above papers has been recently improved in De Biasio et al. [2020]. A step in advance is now to develop an effective synergistic use of global positioning system (GPS) data, tide gauge measurements and satellite altimetry observations. In this study GPS data are used as a real source of information on the relative Vertical Land Motion (VLM) between pairs of tide gauges, and not as mere term of comparison of the results obtained by differencing relative and absolute sea level observations time series.

Long, consistent and collocated tide gauge and GPS observations time series are extracted for a handful of suitable coastal locations, and used in the original formulation of the constrained linear inverse problem, together with satellite altimetry data. Some experiments are conducted without GPS observations (traditional setup), and with GPS observations (the new proposed approach) Results are compared in order to assess the impact of GPS observations directly into the formulation of the constrained linear inverse problem.

The satellite altimetry data-set used in this study is that offered by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) through its Climate Data Store archive. It covers the global ocean since 1993 to present, with spatial resolution of 0.25 x 0.25 degrees. This data set is constantly updated and relies only on a couple of simultaneous altimetry missions at a time to provide stable long-term variability estimates of sea level. Tide gauge data are extracted from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level archive and from other local sea level monitoring services. GPS vertical position time series and/or VLM rates are taken from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory and other public GPS repositories.

REFERENCES

Vignudelli, S.; De Biasio, F.; Scozzari, A.; Zecchetto, S.; Papa, A. In Proceedings of the International Association of Geodesy Symposia; Mertikas, S.P., Pail, R., Eds.; Springer: Cham, Switzerland, 2020; Volume 150, pp. 65–74. DOI: 10.1007/1345_2018_51

Kuo, C.Y.; Shum, C.K.; Braun, A.; Mitrovica, J.X. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31. DOI: 10.1029/2003GL019106

Wöppelmann, G.; Marcos, M. J. Geophys. Res. Ocean. 2012, 117. DOI: 10.1029/2011JC007469

De Biasio, F.; Baldin, G.; Vignudelli, S. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 949. DOI: 10.3390/jmse8110949

How to cite: De Biasio, F. and Vignudelli, S.: Synergistic use of tide gauges, satellite altimetry and GPS data for sea level studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8092, 2022.

The last interglacial (LIG), ca. 128-116 ka, is widely considered a process analogue in understanding Earth’s systems in a future warmer climate. In particular, significant effort has been made to better constrain ice sheet contributions to sea level rise through direct field observation of relative sea level (RSL) indicators. In order to extract the RSL, a series of corrections for formational parameters and post-depositional processes need to be applied. Along tropical coastal margins, LIG RSL observations are predominately based on exposed shallow coral reef sequences due to their relatively narrow indicative range and reliable U-series chronological constraints. However, the often-limited sub-stadial temporal preservation of many Pleistocene reef sequences on stable coastlines restrict many reported RSLs to a series of distinct points in within the LIG. This in turn, limits ability to elucidate different commonly reported meter-scale sub-stadial sea level peak patterns and their associated uncertainties. In order to address this shortcoming, lithostratigraphic and geomorphologic traces are often used to place RSLs into a broader context. Unfortunately, this is often subjective, with significant reliance on field observations where missing facies and incomplete sequences can distort interpretations. Stepping back from a conventional approach, in this study we generate a spectrum of synthetic Quaternary subtropical fringing reefs in southwestern Madagascar within the DIONISOS forward stratigraphic model environment. Each reef sequence has been subjected to distinct Greenland and Antarctica melt scenarios produced by a coupled ANICE-SELEN global isostatic adjustment model, matching previously hypothesized LIG sea level curves in the Indo-Pacific Basin. The resulting suite of synthetic reef sequences provides the ability to probabilistically test any number of melt scenarios against the sensitivity of the stratigraphic record. We propose this accessible additional quantitative quality control during the final interpretation phase of establishing emergent reef sequence based LIG RSL indicators can assist in narrowing down the wide uncertainty surrounding inter-stadial ice sheet behaviors.   

How to cite: Boyden, P., Stocchi, P., and Rovere, A.: Assessing Last Interglacial Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet melting through forward stratigraphic derived synthetic outcrops: test case from Southwestern Madagascar, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8270, 2022.

EGU22-8462 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Sensitivity of SSP585 sea-level projections to ocean model resolution in the MPI-ESM climate model 

Chathurika Wickramage, Armin Köhl, Detlef Stammer, and Johann Jungclauss

The existence of reliable coastal sea-level projections is essential for identifying necessary adaptation and mitigation strategies of policymakers and coastal communities over the following decades. However, today only a few ocean components of climate projections can resolve the small-scale processes that affect the Dynamic Sea Level (DSL) change in the open ocean and in coastal areas, predominantly in the eddy rich regions such as Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and the western boundary currents. Therefore, we investigate the dependence of regional sea-level projections on ocean model resolution using the recent Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the shared socioeconomic pathway 585 (SSP585, fossil-fuel development). By comparing the climate change scenario from 2080 to 2099 to a historical simulation from 1995 to 2014, our results indicate that the models, from eddy-rich (ER), eddy-permitting (HR) to coarser resolution (LR), successfully produce the previously identified global DSL patterns. However, the magnitude of the DSL increase in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the decrease in the subtropical gyre is significantly larger in the ER ocean in contrast to HR and LR; the same holds for the magnitude of the opposite dipole pattern in the North Pacific. In the southern ocean, the DSL increases north of ACC but decreases further to the south, projecting much smaller changes in the ER. We note that the meridional shift of ACC, associated with sea-level change, is smaller in ER than in HR and LR, indicating an accelerated ACC compared to HR simulation, which shows no acceleration at the end of the 21st century.

How to cite: Wickramage, C., Köhl, A., Stammer, D., and Jungclauss, J.: Sensitivity of SSP585 sea-level projections to ocean model resolution in the MPI-ESM climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8462, 2022.

EGU22-8657 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Long-Term Wind Influence on Sea Level Along the Dutch Coast 

Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, André Jüling, Sybren Drijfhout, and Roderik van de Wal

We studied the wind influence on multidecadal variability and trend of sea level along the Dutch coast. Annual mean sea level for the period 1890 to 2020 is obtained from 6 tide gauges. We compared three widely used multi-linear regression models relating sea level and wind based on either local zonal and meridional wind speed or large-scale pressure patterns. For this purpose, surface wind and pressure data from the ERA5 reanalysis and the twentieth century reanalysis v3 (20CRv3) are used 

 

We find a significant multi-decadal mode of variability with an amplitude of around 1 cm and a period of 40 to 60 years that is related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. We show that this multi-decadal wind variability is responsible for an average drop in sea level of 0.5 mm/yr over the last 40 years which is around a quarter of the total sea level rise of 2 mm/yr over that period. Therefore, wind effects on sea level partly masked sea level acceleration at the Dutch coast. This is important for sea level monitoring supporting decision making. 

 

The same multi-linear regression models are then applied to the CMIP6 historical and future climate scenario data to make projections of future wind impact on sea level along the Dutch coast. Contrary to our expectation based on a previous study in the German Bight (Dangendorf et al. 2014) we find no sign that long term wind changes will increase sea level during the 21st century. 

 

Reference: 

Dangendorf, Sönke, Thomas Wahl, Enno Nilson, Birgit Klein, and Jürgen Jensen. “A New Atmospheric Proxy for Sea Level Variability in the Southeastern North Sea: Observations and Future Ensemble Projections.” Climate Dynamics 43, no. 1–2 (July 2014): 447–67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1932-4. 

 

How to cite: Keizer, I., Le Bars, D., Jüling, A., Drijfhout, S., and van de Wal, R.: Long-Term Wind Influence on Sea Level Along the Dutch Coast, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8657, 2022.

EGU22-8674 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Noisy Input Generalised Additive Model for Relative Sea Level along the East Coast of North America 

Maeve Upton, Andrew Parnell, Andrew Kemp, Gerard McCarthy, and Niamh Cahill

The 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report highlighted how rates of sea level rise are the fastest in at least the last 3000 years. As a result, it is important to understand historical sea level trends at a global and local level in order to comprehend the drivers of sea level change and the potential impacts. The influence of different sea level drivers, for example thermal expansion, ocean dynamics and glacial – isostatic adjustment (GIA), has changed throughout time and space. Therefore, a useful statistical model requires both flexibility in time and space and have the capability to examine these separate drivers, whilst taking account of uncertainty.

The aim of our project is to develop statistical models to examine historic sea level changes for North America's and Ireland's Atlantic Coast. For our models, we utilise sea-level proxy data and tide gauge data which provide relative sea level estimates with uncertainty. The statistical approach employed is that of extensions of Generalised Additive Models (GAMs), which allow separate components of sea level to be modelled individually and efficiently and for smooth rates of change and accelerations to be calculated.

The model is built in a Bayesian framework which allows for external prior information to constrain the evolution of sea level change over space and time. The proxy data is collected from salt-marsh sediment cores and dated using biological and geochemical sea level indicators. Additional tide gauge data is taken from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level online. Uncertainty in dating is extremely important when using proxy records and is accounted for using the Noisy Input uncertainty method (McHutchon and Rasmussen 2011).

By combining statistical models, proxy and tidal gauge data, our results have shown that current sea level along North America’s east coast is the highest it has been in at least the last 15 centuries. The GAMs have the capability of examining the different drivers of relative sea level change such as GIA, local factors and eustatic influences. Our models have demonstrated that GIA was the main driver of relative sea level change along North America’s Atlantic coast, until the 20th century when a sharp rise in rates of sea level change can be seen.

This work is part of the larger nationally funded Irish A4 project (Aigéin, Aeráid, agus Athrú Atlantaigh — Oceans, Climate, and Atlantic Change), funded by the Marine Institute. It aims to examine ocean and climate changes in the Atlantic Ocean. The project targets three aspects of the Atlantic: its changing ocean dynamics; sea level changes; and Irish decadal climate predictions. In the future, we will apply this modelling technique to produce a long term historical record for relative sea level change in Ireland.

How to cite: Upton, M., Parnell, A., Kemp, A., McCarthy, G., and Cahill, N.: Noisy Input Generalised Additive Model for Relative Sea Level along the East Coast of North America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8674, 2022.

EGU22-9058 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Prediction of future sea-level rise in land suitability for mangrove rehabilitation and restoration in Indonesia 

Luri Nurlaila Syahid, Raymond D. Ward, Anjar D. Sakti, Dian Rosleine, Ketut Wikantika, and Wiwin Windupranata

Mangroves have many benefits, both for humans and for the surrounding ecosystem. One of the most benefits from mangroves is that mangroves have coastal blue carbon reserves up to five times greater than the total carbon storage of temperate, taiga, and tropical forests. But recently, mangroves have decreased in extent by 20-35% due to both anthropogenic and naturogenic factors. One of the naturogenic factors that impact mangroves is sea-level rise. Mangroves cannot survive if sediment accumulation cannot keep pace with sea-level rise. This can result in mangrove death or zonal shifts in plant communities.

The decline in mangrove areas has resulted in increases in carbon emissions. This increase in carbon costs $US6-24 billion in economic damage annually. Indonesia experienced the highest increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the world in 1990-2010. Whereas in the Paris agreement, 2015, countries in the world including Indonesia have committed to reducing emissions by 29-41% by 2030. Therefore, rehabilitation and restoration of mangroves need to be undertaken, as well as identification of those mangroves most under threat.

The aim of this study is to model future sea-level rise and the impact of its exposure on land suitability for mangrove rehabilitation and restoration in Indonesia. This study uses the integration of remote sensing, statistical, and future climate model data combined with GIS methods to produce a sea-level rise model. This study also uses several scenarios both climate and temporal to predict sea-level rise.

The results of this study indicate that there are several areas that have high exposure caused by sea-level rise. This is exacerbated by low rates of sedimentation or land subsidence in some areas. In contrast, several other areas experienced high rates of accretion and thus are at less risk. Changes in rates of inundation caused by sea-level rise have caused some areas suitable for planting mangroves to become unsuitable. Therefore, if planting is carried out in the area now, it is very likely that the mangrove will be submerged by excessive tidal inundation and any rehabilitation and restoration carried out will fail.

This study is expected to be taken into consideration in driving new policy based on the results of the model. This study can also be used as a guide to consider which areas are suitable for mangrove rehabilitation and restoration without the threat of a sea-level rise in the future.

How to cite: Syahid, L. N., Ward, R. D., Sakti, A. D., Rosleine, D., Wikantika, K., and Windupranata, W.: Prediction of future sea-level rise in land suitability for mangrove rehabilitation and restoration in Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9058, 2022.

EGU22-9778 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

GESLA Version 3: A major update to the global higher-frequency sea-level dataset 

Ivan D. Haigh, Marta Marcos, Stefan A. Talke, Philip L. Woodworth, John R. Hunter, Ben S. Hague, Arne Arns, Elizabeth Bradshaw, and Philip Thompson

This paper describes a major update to the quasi-global, higher-frequency sea-level dataset known as GESLA (Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis). Versions 1 (released 2009) and 2 (released 2016) of the dataset have been used in many published studies, across a wide range of oceanographic and coastal engineering-related investigations concerned with evaluating tides, storm surges, extreme sea levels and other related processes. The third version of the dataset (released 2021), presented here, contains twice the number of years of data (91,021), and nearly four times the number of records (5,119), compared to version 2. The dataset consists of records obtained from multiple sources around the world. This paper describes the assembly of the dataset, its processing and its format, and outlines potential future improvements. The dataset is available from https://www.gesla.org.

How to cite: Haigh, I. D., Marcos, M., Talke, S. A., Woodworth, P. L., Hunter, J. R., Hague, B. S., Arns, A., Bradshaw, E., and Thompson, P.: GESLA Version 3: A major update to the global higher-frequency sea-level dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9778, 2022.

EGU22-10973 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Late Cenozoic sea-level indicators in west Luzon, Philippines 

Kathrine Maxwell, Hildegard Westphal, Alessio Rovere, and Kevin Garas

Using the framework of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS), we produced a standardized database of Last Interglacial (LIG) sea-level indicators in Southeast Asia after reviewing available studies on relative sea-level (RSL) proxies such as coral reef terraces and tidal notches in the Philippines; Sulawesi; and Sumba, Timor, and Alor regions. In total, we reviewed 43 unique RSL proxies in the region and highlighted sites for future studies. Following this work, we revisited a site in west Luzon, Philippines where LIG coral reef terraces were previously reported. In this paper, we present new geomorphic and stratigraphic data on the fossil coral reef terraces in Pangasinan, west Luzon which adds to the limited sea-level indicators in the region. The low-lying areas of western Pangasinan are underlain by sequences of calcareous sandstone-mudstone with minor pebbly conglomerate and tuffaceous sandstone units belonging to the Sta. Cruz Formation, with tentative age designation of Late Miocene to Early Pliocene. Unconformably overlying the tentatively assigned sandstone unit of Sta. Cruz Formation is the Plio-Pleistocene Bolinao Limestone, the youngest formational unit in the area. Based on previous literature, a sequence of coral reef terraces (possibly LIG) is cut onto the Bolinao Limestone. Rising to about 14 meters above mean sea level (m amsl) along the coast of western Pangasinan are previously dated Holocene coral reef terraces. While additional data is needed to shed more light on the RSL changes in the region, our work proves to be more challenging due to the difficulties of doing field surveys during a global pandemic. Nonetheless, we hope that data from this research will help us further understand the different drivers of past sea-level changes in SE Asia providing necessary geologic baseline data for projections of sea-level change in the future.

How to cite: Maxwell, K., Westphal, H., Rovere, A., and Garas, K.: Late Cenozoic sea-level indicators in west Luzon, Philippines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10973, 2022.

EGU22-11156 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Danish Climate Atlas view on sea level change in future 

Jian Su, Elin Andrée, Jacob W. Nielsen, Steffen M. Olsen, and Kristine S. Madsen

Wind patterns projected for the region, together with sea level rise and land rise, call into question our current understanding of extreme storm surges in the Danish coastal area. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) will research changes in the extreme statistics of sea level in the twenty-first century through the 'Danish Climate Atlas,' a new national climate service initiative. The study will make use of multi-scenarios, multi-models and multi-parameters approach to focus on the uncertainty of the projected change in extreme statistics of sea level.  Historical sea level records suggest that the relative sea level (RSL) along the Danish North Sea coast south of Skagerrak has been increasing with the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. However, RSL has been absent in the central Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas, owing to the Fennoscandian post-glacial land-uplift offsetting the GMSL rise. According to the recent IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC), due to Antarctic ice sheet dynamics, GMSL would grow more than previously estimated in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5. We regionalized the SROCC sea level forecasts for the "Danish Climate Atlas" dataset. Our findings indicate that sea level projections under RCP8.5 result in a > 40 cm RSL rise in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas by the end of the twenty-first century, which may necessitate a new adaptation strategy in this region. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the rate of mean sea level rise will exceed the rate of land rise earlier than previously estimated by AR5. We emphasize, in particular, the impact of these new predictions on future severe sea levels in this region. Our findings suggest that this more current GMSL prediction should be factored into coastal risk assessments in the Skagerrak-Kattegat Seas in this century.

How to cite: Su, J., Andrée, E., Nielsen, J. W., Olsen, S. M., and Madsen, K. S.: Danish Climate Atlas view on sea level change in future, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11156, 2022.

Cultural heritage not only witnesses past spiritual and aesthetic attitudes of mankind, but also represents a unique means to investigate the intimate relationship between humanity and the environment.  We present an overview and preliminary data of the SPHeritage Project, which investigates evidence of Palaeolithic human occupation and cultural heritage in the NW Mediterranean area in conjunction with Pleistocene sea-level change studies. A tightly interdisciplinary approach is necessary to use cultural heritage as a proxy for sea-level change evidence. The SPHeritage Project (MUR grant: FIRS2019_00040, P.I.: M. Pappalardo) investigates how human populations have responded to environmental changes and sea-level variations over the last 400,000 years in the Ligurian-Provençal coastal area (along the border between Italy and France) using a combination of micro-invasive methods applied to in situ and previously excavated sediments of uttermost archaeological relevance. In this area, particularly in the archaeological area of Balzi Rossi, a unique assemblage of archaeological sites dating to the Palaeolithic can be found in a rocky coast geomorphological setting where sea-level indicators of the last 3 or 4 interglacials are present. They lack reliable dating and a standardized assessment of the palaeo sea level they record. Improved age constraint of the coastal deposits and recording of relative sea-level (RSL) change evidence is necessary for: i) contribution to the standardized inventory of past interglacial sea-leves; ii) investigating changes in the biodiversity of rocky coastal marine ecosystems triggered by different interglacial environmental conditions; iii) the development of a self-consistent Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model capable of including the residual effect of previous interglacials’ rebound on the isostatic response of later interglacials; iv) investigating how RSL change and consequent shoreline fluctuations can drive settlement strategies and human migration/dispersal patterns. This project is challenged by the previous removal of large portions of the local archaeological sequences in earlier investigations beginning at the end of the nineteenth century. The challenge in this Project is that most of the local archaeological sequences have been extensively investigated since the end of the nineteenth century and large part of the deposits were removed. Therefore, we will combine analyses of relict in situ sediments with those of stratigraphically constrained materials preserved in museums and archaeological deposits worldwide. Moreover, traces of past shorelines will be searched for in the sedimentary sequence of the continental shelf through geophysical surveys and, if this will prove possible, through direct sediment coring. Our preliminary data are promising, and suggest that this interdisciplinary and microinvasive approach can provide valuable evidence on sea-level change from archaeological areas without hampering cultural heritage preservation.

How to cite: Pappalardo, M. and the SPHeritage Project members: Investigating Pleistocene sea-level changes along the northern Mediterranean coast through Palaeolithic cultural heritage: perspectives from the S-P-Heritage Project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11357, 2022.

EGU22-11476 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Understanding the role of internal climate variability in future sea level trends 

Mélanie Becker, Mikhail Karpytchev, and Aixue Hu

Estimating the magnitude of future sea level rise is among the primary goals of current climate research. Sea level projections contain inherent irreducible uncertainty, which is due to internal climate variability (ICV). This uncertainty is commonly estimated from a spread of sea level projections obtained from Global Climate Models (GCM) under the same forcing but with slightly different initial conditions. Here we analyze the ICV contribution to the sea level variations (1) across the Large Ensembles (LE) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) obtained under different warming scenarios and (2) from an alternative approach based on the power-law statistics theory. The magnitude of the sea level response to ICV is also evaluated by comparison with actual tide gauge data. We show that certain coastal regions of the globe are more sensitive to ICV than others, both in observations and in the GCM results. We identify regions where the sea level change will become significant beyond the ICV, providing useful climate change adaptation guidance.

How to cite: Becker, M., Karpytchev, M., and Hu, A.: Understanding the role of internal climate variability in future sea level trends, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11476, 2022.

EGU22-11672 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Hourly sea-level change with long-term trends for impact attribution: the HLT Dataset 

Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Sanne Muis, Sönke Dangendorf, Thomas Wahl, Stefanie Heinicke, and Katja Frieler

Rising seas are a threat for human and natural systems along coastlines. The relation between global warming and sea-level rise is established, but impacts due to historical sea-level rise are not well quantified on a global scale. To foster the attribution of observed coastal impacts to sea-level rise, we here present HLT, a sea-level forcing dataset encompassing factual and counterfactual sea-level evolution along global coastlines from 1979 to 2015. HLT combines observation-based long-term changes with reanalysis-based hourly water level variation. Comparison to tide gauge records shows improved performance of HLT, mainly due to the inclusion of density-driven sea-level change. We produce a counterfactual by removing the trend in relative sea level since 1900. The detrending preserves the timing of historical extreme sea-level events. Hence, the data can be used in event-based impact attribution to sea-level rise with tuples of impact simulations driven with the factual and counterfactual dataset. The dataset is made available openly through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP).

How to cite: Mengel, M., Treu, S., Muis, S., Dangendorf, S., Wahl, T., Heinicke, S., and Frieler, K.: Hourly sea-level change with long-term trends for impact attribution: the HLT Dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11672, 2022.

EGU22-12063 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Sub-hourly sea level quality-controlled dataset to quantify extreme sea levels along the European coasts 

Marijana Balić, Jadranka Šepić, Leon Ćatipović, Srđan Čupić, Jihwan Kim, Iva Međugorac, Rachid Omira, Havu Pellikka, Krešimir Ruić, Ivica Vilibić, and Petra Zemunik

Extreme sea levels can lead to floods that cause significant damage to coastal infrastructure and put people's lives in danger. These floods are a result of physical processes occurring at various time and space scales, including sub-hourly scales. To estimate the contribution of sub-hourly sea level oscillations to extreme sea levels, raw sea level data from about 300 tide gauge stations along the European coasts, with a sampling resolution of less than 20 minutes, were collected. The data were obtained from: (1) the IOC-SLSMF website (290 stations); (2) National agencies (Portugal, Finland, Croatia –24 stations). Portions of the raw dataset had various data quality issues (i.e., spikes, shifts, drifts) hence quality control procedure was required. Out of range values, values with a 50 cm difference from one neighbouring value or a 30 cm difference from both neighbouring values, were automatically removed. The automatic spike detection procedure was carried out by removing values that differed by three standard deviations from a spline fitted with the least squares method. Following the automatic quality control, all remaining data were visually examined and spurious data were removed manually.

The resulting data set contains sea level data from 2007. to 2021., with an average record length of approximately 7 years, however the length varies from a few months at some stations to 13 years at others. Tide gauges with longer records (>10 years) are based in the Baltic region, France and Spain, whereas the ones with shorter records (<3 years) are mostly based in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Western Mediterranean and western Europe have a high station coverage with records of various lengths. Tide gauges mostly provide data with a one-minute sampling frequency, however, some of them still record on a multi-minute scale (i.e., United Kingdom with 15 minutes and Norway and the Netherlands with 10 minutes sampling frequency).

Preliminary statistical analyses were done, resulting with spatial and temporal distribution of contribution of high-frequency sea level oscillations to total sea level extremes along the European coasts.

How to cite: Balić, M., Šepić, J., Ćatipović, L., Čupić, S., Kim, J., Međugorac, I., Omira, R., Pellikka, H., Ruić, K., Vilibić, I., and Zemunik, P.: Sub-hourly sea level quality-controlled dataset to quantify extreme sea levels along the European coasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12063, 2022.

EGU22-13026 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Sea-level rise: from global perspectives to local services 

Gael Durand, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Tamsin L. Edwards, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ben Marzeion, Ruth Mottram, Robert J. Nicholls, Frank Pattyn, Frank Paul, Aimée B.A. Slangen, Ricarda Winkelmann, Clara Burgard, Caroline J. van Calcar, Jean-Baptiste Barré, Amélie Bataille, and Anne Chapuis

Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea- level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers and the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of these ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of ~65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe, and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks. Following these principles, as also adopted in the EU project “Projecting sea-level rise: from projections to local implications” (PROTECT), we encourage the formation of research consortia that cover the entire knowledge chainIn this way global sea-level science can be linked to effective coastal climate services at the scale of risk and adaptation

How to cite: Durand, G., van den Broeke, M. R., Le Cozannet, G., Edwards, T. L., Holland, P. R., Jourdain, N. C., Marzeion, B., Mottram, R., Nicholls, R. J., Pattyn, F., Paul, F., Slangen, A. B. A., Winkelmann, R., Burgard, C., van Calcar, C. J., Barré, J.-B., Bataille, A., and Chapuis, A.: Sea-level rise: from global perspectives to local services, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13026, 2022.

EGU22-13328 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Long-term trends and variations in sea level of the Black Sea 

Şehriban Saçu and Olgay Şen

The Black Sea is an almost enclosed basin interacted with the Mediterranean Sea through the Bosporus. It has a large catchment area receiving freshwater from the second longest river in Europe, the Danube, and other rivers spread over Europe and Asia. The total riverine discharge is 350 km3/year where the Danube contributes about 65% of the total discharge. Although evaporation rates (280 km3/year) exceed precipitation rates (200 km3/year), large riverine discharge makes the Black Sea an estuarine type basin.  The main feature of the Black Sea is a basin-wide cyclonic circulation, namely Rim Current. The cyclonic circulation causes a lower sea level in the inner part of the basin and a higher sea level in the shelf region. The freshwater budget and thermal expansion of the water are other factors affecting sea level of the Black Sea.  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could also influence sea level through changes in atmospheric pressure and the above-mentioned factors.  

 

In this study, firstly we investigated long term trends in sea level of the Black Sea on the basis of the tide gauge measurements, satellite altimetry, and gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Then, we assessed role of the wind curl, freshwater budget, and NAO on sea level variations through temporal and spatial data analysis. The tide gauge measurements suggest a positive sea level trend of about 1.05 – 2.37 mm/years, for a time period >50 years. Basin mean sea level derived from altimeter and GRACE (years between 2003-2019), does not exhibit a statistically significant trend (p<0.05) which might result from the shift towards a positive NAO condition in the last 30-years. We found that sea level variations both in the coastal and inner part of the basin are significantly correlated (p<0.05) with Danube discharge but these correlations are smaller in the inner part. The agreement between interannual variations of Danube discharge and the NAO index suggests that sea level variations are also associated with NAO index. An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis with associated time series (Principal Components, PC) is applied to the gridded altimeter data to capture space and time features of sea level variability. The first mode of the EOF explained about %81.9 of the total variability and showed the same sign over the basin indicating an in-phase oscillation of the whole Black Sea. The PC1 shows interannual variations in accordance with freshwater budget (r=0.76, p<0.05). The second mode of the EOF accounts for %5.7 of the total variability, has opposite signs in coastal and inner parts, the oscillation implied by this mode could be related to the Rim Current intensity governed by wind curl.

 

How to cite: Saçu, Ş. and Şen, O.: Long-term trends and variations in sea level of the Black Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13328, 2022.

EGU22-13467 | Presentations | CL3.1.1

Effect of Holocene sediment redistributions on the relative sea level at present in the Ayeyarwady delta (aka Irrawaddy delta, Myanmar) 

Céline Grall, Adrien Henry, Mikhail Karpytchev, and Melanie Becker

Under high seasonal monsoon rainfall and active tectonics, the Ayeyarwady delta is a large delta plain characterized by a high sediment supply. Also, the Ayeyarwady river, together with the Sittaung, and the Salween Rivers are bringing ~600 Mt/yr of sediments to the Andaman Sea through the Gulf of Martaban. A recent research effort have allowed characterizing the sedimentation at present and since the mid-Holocene. We here propose to integrate these published observations in a stratigraphic reconstruction and to determine by numerical modelling how much these Holocene massive sediment transfers play on coastal subsidence and relative sea level at present.

The present average sedimentation rate at the front of Ayeyarwady delta is ~10 cm/yr and the delta may be divided in two sectors: an eastern embayed sector and a western open coast sector. During the mid-Holocene, the aerial part of the delta have experimented fast progradation rate, reaching prograding rate of ~ 30 m/yr. When applying this sedimentation pattern on a preliminary (radial) viscoelastic Earth model, we show that sediment isostasy plays on the regional coastal dynamics and subsidence at present. In addition, the Ayeyarwady delta lies in a complex tectonic setting, bounded to the west by the Indo-Burman collision zone, and to the east by the sub-vertical dextral Sagaing Fault. We are integrating this tectonic setting in an earth model that allows lateral vertical discontinuity for exploring how much this significantly changes the modelling results.

How to cite: Grall, C., Henry, A., Karpytchev, M., and Becker, M.: Effect of Holocene sediment redistributions on the relative sea level at present in the Ayeyarwady delta (aka Irrawaddy delta, Myanmar), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13467, 2022.

EGU22-705 | Presentations | CL3.1.2 | Highlight

Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely 

Fraser Lott, Andrew Ciavarella, John Kennedy, Andrew King, Peter Stott, Simon Tett, and Dongqian Wang

Probabilistic event attribution aims to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in altering the intensity or probability of extreme climate and weather events. It was originally conceived to calculate the costs associated with any increased likelihood of the meteorological event in question. However, only recently have such studies attempted to divide liability between polluting nations and ascribe a cost. Recent protests indicate a perception that older generations have the greater responsibility for climate change. In this paper, we examine how a portion of the cost of an event can be attributed to any individual person, according to their age and nationality. We demonstrate that this is quantitatively feasible using the example of the 2018 summer heatwave in eastern China and its impact on aquaculture. A relatively simple technique finds sample individuals responsible for between 0.53 and 18.10 yuan, increasing with their age and their country’s emissions over their adult lifetime since the first international consensus on carbon emissions was reached. This provides an illustration of the scale of such responsibilities, and how it is affected by national development and demographics. Such data can support decisions, at national and international levels, on how to fund recovery from climate impacts. It offers a simple quantitative approach for individuals to know their impact on the climate, or for governments to use in making policy decisions about how best to distribute costs of climate change.

How to cite: Lott, F., Ciavarella, A., Kennedy, J., King, A., Stott, P., Tett, S., and Wang, D.: Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-705, 2022.

EGU22-1270 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Multi-method attribution of the extreme precipitation and flood of 2018 in Kerala, India. 

Manish Kumar Dhasmana, Arpita Mondal, and Mariam Zachariah

The role of global warming and climate change in altering the likelihood of extreme weather events is becoming increasingly evident. Event attribution refers to the collection of frameworks that use observed data and climate model simulations for quantifying the contribution of human-induced (anthropogenic) climate change in changing the event probability. In this study, we present a multi-method event attribution analysis of the catastrophic extreme precipitation and flooding event in Kerala, India in August 2018, that resulted in widespread destruction and loss of lives. Two methods- (i) based on factual (Historical) and counterfactual (HistoricalNat) runs from 5 CMIP6 climate models, and (ii) based on observed data, scaled to 2018 (factual) and 1901(pseudo-counterfactual) climates, are considered for quantifying the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) of the 2018 event. Using an objective approach, we first define the 2018 event as the 4-day cumulative rainfall over the Periyar river basin (PRB), during 15- 18 August, 2018. This event has a return period of 373 years (90% CI: 72-1200 years). The 1-day maximum streamflow at one of the outlets of the PRB, where maximum impact during the event was reported, is used for attributing the associated flood event. Simulated using VIC hydrological model, the streamflow event is found to have a return period of 34 years (90% CI: 12-286 years). The FAR from the climate model ensembles is -0.18 and -0.14, for the precipitation and streamflow events, respectively. The scaled observations also give negative FARs: -0.97 for precipitation and -0.93 for streamflow. These values imply that the 2018 event is exceptionally less likely due to climate change. In other words, our results underline the definitive absence of anthropogenic role in the 2018 event.

How to cite: Dhasmana, M. K., Mondal, A., and Zachariah, M.: Multi-method attribution of the extreme precipitation and flood of 2018 in Kerala, India., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1270, 2022.

EGU22-2162 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Causal attribution of low AMOC strengths to anthropogenic influence 

Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Armineh Barkhordarian, Sebastian Brune, and Johanna Baehr

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a crucial feature of Earth’s climate, and the possible recent AMOC weakening in association with anthropogenic emissions is a topic of current scientific discussion. To assess whether anthropogenic emissions affect the circulation, we examine low AMOC strengths with the framework of the causal counterfactual theory.  

We compare the occurrence of low strengths in a factual world with all forcings present against a counterfactual world, equivalent except for anthropogenic forcings. To represent these two worlds, we use past and future 30-member ensembles of simulations from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), whose AMOC characteristics at 26.5°N are in overall agreement with observations from the RAPID program.

Considering the whole historical period (1850-2020), our results show that causation probabilities for anthropogenic forcings on low AMOC strengths at 26.5 °N are generally low. However, within future projections, we find that anthropogenic forcings will very likely be a necessary cause of any AMOC strength below 16.0 Sv by about 2040. These results are sensitive to the choice of attribution window: if the starting year is chosen closer to the present, all probabilities substantially increase. Within the analyzed simulations, the main attribution results found at 26.5°N are confirmed for other latitudes in the North Atlantic.

How to cite: Alastrué de Asenjo, E., Barkhordarian, A., Brune, S., and Baehr, J.: Causal attribution of low AMOC strengths to anthropogenic influence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2162, 2022.

In addition to their changes to carbon pools, land use and land cover changes (LULCC) alter climates biogeophysically through their effects on surface fluxes for energy and water. These resulting climatic changes in temperature manifest differently across study type (observational or model-based) and spatial-temporal scales depending on the predominance of albedo, evaporative fraction and surface roughness as causal factors. With growing future demand for land-exhaustive activities to address societal needs and interest in mitigation strategies involving reforestation/afforestation, it is important to understand how past LULCC contributed to climate change. Here we assess the prevalence of the historical LULCC signal in the warmest average month of daily maximum temperatures using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection and attribution. We use the simulations of four global climate models from CMIP6 historical and hist-noLu experiments and separate observations from the Climatic Research Unit and Berkley Earth. Aggregating data according to the new IPCC AR6 reference regions and regressing observations onto hist-noLu and lu (historical - hist-noLu) in a 2-way regression, we find that LULCC is not sufficiently detectable at continental and global scales for four GCMs and their multi-model mean. This is confirmed by the nearly unchanging detectability of historical climate change in separate 1-way regressions for historical and hist-noLu. To further explore lu, we confirm the predominance of noise and the non-local effects of LULCC over its local effects by finding insignificant signal-to-noise ratios for the fingerprint of forest cover on lu using a principal component analysis.

How to cite: Grant, L.: Biogeophysical effects of land use and land cover change not detectable in CMIP6 warmest month., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2345, 2022.

Statistically rigorous methods to attribute large-scale, long-term changes in observed climate to anthropogenic forcing are well established and the attribution of individual extreme events has advanced rapidly too. Further attributing climate impacts in society and ecosystems can be important for understanding and assessing loss and damage, for informing adaptation policies, and for motivating both adaptation and mitigation efforts. For this purpose, a counterfactual climate dataset was recently published within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Mengel et al., 2021). Constructed by removing the long-term shifts in daily reanalysis data that are correlated to global-mean temperature change, the dataset does not address anthropogenic climate change, but its large spatial and temporal coverage and the range of variables covered as well as minimum requirements on computational tools and data make it a desirable resource for this interdisciplinary problem.

Here, we trial the use of that counterfactual dataset for the quantification of climate impacts on agricultural crop yields, which are of paramount importance to many of the regions most exposed and vulnerable to climate change, not least for food security. We present results from case studies that examine the impacts of selected drought events and are chosen based on reports of substantial food security impacts, on the availability of crop yield data, and on the existence of published scientific literature of a corresponding climate attribution study. The latter allows the comparison with results using methods that isolate the anthropogenic (combined, or by individual forcing) climate change signal. Together with more systematic discussion, this gives an idea of the degree to which our results on the contribution of any climate variations to the observed impacts may be a proxy for the anthropogenic climate change contribution specifically.

Impacts are explicitly simulated using statistical crop models that are established in the agricultural and agronomic literature, built and validated based on the observed record. The use of the single-realisation, weather-preserving factual and counterfactual dataset gives a deterministic rather than probabilistic estimate, but parametric and structural crop-model uncertainty is characterised, and the robustness of the results to different observational crop-yield datasets assessed. We collaborate with local stakeholders to ensure appropriate consideration of non-climatic factors and to improve data availability and quality. Our work combines perspectives of climate attribution, disaster risk reduction, and agricultural science to enhance attributing loss and damage in agriculture to climate change.

How to cite: Undorf, S., Schauberger, B., and Gornott, C.: Attributing observed climate change impacts in agriculture using observationally-derived counterfactual climate data and statistical crop-yield modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4326, 2022.

EGU22-4622 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Trends in short-term precipitation variability 

Romana Beranova and Radan Huth

Since long-term changes in precipitation variability are an important aspect of climate change, it is necessary to know whether and how they are changing. We consider two measures of short-term precipitation variability: (i) dry-to-wet and wet-to-wet transition probabilities; they are sufficient for the description of the other two probabilities (dry-to-dry and wet-to-dry) provided precipitation occurrence follows the two-state first-order Markovian process and (ii) mean duration of dry and wet spells, that is, sequences of days without and with measurable precipitation.

The daily precipitation data are taken from European Climate Assessment and Dataset project. We examine 395 precipitation station series from 1961 to 2010. Long-term trends of seasonal values of variability measures and their statistical significance are calculated by non-parametric methods (Mann-Kendall test, Kendall statistic). We found out that statistically significant trends of transition probabilities are more frequent in winter than in summer. In winter, there are positive trends of wet-to-wet probabilities and negative trends of dry-to-dry probabilities in northern Europe.

How to cite: Beranova, R. and Huth, R.: Trends in short-term precipitation variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4622, 2022.

EGU22-5193 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Constraining internal surface temperature variability and its implications for detection and attribution 

Andrew Schurer, Lucie Luecke, and Gabriele Hegerl

The latest generation of climate models (CMIP6) have very different large-scale surface temperature variability and inconsistencies with observed climate have been found in the variability in several regions. Given that detection and attribution, in common with many climate analyses, relies on model internal variability for uncertainty ranges, it is crucial to better constrain this variability. Here, we compare the latest climate models to observed variability to determine where and on what timescales discrepancies occur, with the models found to be, in general, too variable on annual timescales over land and with not as much variability as the observations particularly over the Southern oceans at multi-decadal timescale. We further use paleo-proxy reconstructions, supported by observational datasets finding that the majority of models have variability consistent with large-scale mean temperature on multi-annual and multi-decadal timescales. Finally, the presentation will explore the implications of these findings on key detection and attribution analyses, in particular the attribution of warming since pre-industrial times to anthropogenic forcings.

How to cite: Schurer, A., Luecke, L., and Hegerl, G.: Constraining internal surface temperature variability and its implications for detection and attribution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5193, 2022.

EGU22-5845 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Attribution of 2009 extreme rainfall & landslide event in Austria 

Aditya Narayan Mishra, Douglas Maraun, Heimo Truhetz, Raphael Knevels, Emanuele Bevacqua, Herwig Proske, Helene Petschko, Philip Leopold, and Alexander Brenning

Between 22-26 June 2009, Austria witnessed a rampant rainfall spell that spread across populated areas of the country. High-intensity rainfall caused 3000+ landslides in southeast Styria, and property damages worth €10 Million in Styria itself. Elsewhere in Austria, flooding amounted to reparations worth €40 Million. Numerous synoptic-scale studies indicated the presence of a cut-off low over central Europe and excessive moisture convergence behind the extreme event. In a warmer climate change scenario, such an extreme precipitation event may manifest into a more intense event due to the higher water holding capacity of air with increased temperatures, but this reasoning may not be so straightforward considering the complex physics of precipitation, more so in a topographically heterogeneous region such as the GAR (Greater Alpine Region).

The flooding and landslides caused in the region raise an alarm and thus motivate this study whereby we investigate if the rainfall event did become stronger with time due to climate change compared to how it would have been in a counterfactual (climate change free) past. Here we have deployed the CCLM high-resolution regional model coupled with a statistical landslide model to simulate this event (rainfall and landslides) in a pseudo (surrogate) warming scenario. A marked decrease in rainfall intensity is observed in the simulations for 1° cooler climate (pre-industrial past) and the consequent landslide risk is reduced varying across GCMs that were used to derive the boundary conditions from.

We discuss the results from the lens of attribution perspective - how conditional attribution is much more useful compared to the conventional risk-based approach of attributing extreme events. The novelty of our approach lies in using a high-resolution convection-permitting regional model for a landslide attribution study.

How to cite: Mishra, A. N., Maraun, D., Truhetz, H., Knevels, R., Bevacqua, E., Proske, H., Petschko, H., Leopold, P., and Brenning, A.: Attribution of 2009 extreme rainfall & landslide event in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5845, 2022.

EGU22-6841 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events over New Zealand in connection to synoptic circulation features 

Anjali Thomas, Adrian McDonald, James Renwick, Jordis Tradowsky, and Greg Bodeker

Extreme temperature events (ETEs) have evolved alongside the warming climate over most parts of the world. This study provides a statistical quantification of how human influences have increased the likelihood and frequencies of ETEs in New Zealand, depending on the synoptic weather type. We use the simulation under pre-industrial conditions (natural scenarios with no rise in greenhouse gases (GHGs)) and present-day conditions (anthropogenic scenarios) from the weather@home regional climate model. The ensembles of simulations under these two scenarios are used to identify how increases in GHG concentrations have impacted the frequency and intensity of ETEs based on their connection to different large-scale circulation patterns derived using Self Organizing Maps (SOMs). Over New Zealand, an average 2-3 fold rise in frequencies of extremes occurs irrespective of seasons due to elevated GHG concentrations with a mean temperature increase close to 1℃. For some synoptic situations, the frequency and intensity of ETEs are enhanced. In particular, for low-pressure centers to the northeast of New Zealand, the frequency of occurrence of daily temperature extremes has increased by a factor of 7 between anthropogenic and natural simulations for the winter season, though these synoptic patterns rarely occur. For low-pressure centers to the northwest of New Zealand, we observe extreme temperatures frequently in both anthropogenic and natural simulations which we attribute to warm air advection from the tropics. The frequency of occurrence of these synoptic patterns has also increased by a factor of 2 between the natural and anthropogenic simulations. For these synoptic states, the extremes are observed in the North Island and along the east coast of the country with the highest temperature along the Canterbury coast and Northland. However, the change between the natural and anthropogenic simulations is largest on the west coast along the Southern Alps.

How to cite: Thomas, A., McDonald, A., Renwick, J., Tradowsky, J., and Bodeker, G.: Rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events over New Zealand in connection to synoptic circulation features, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6841, 2022.

EGU22-6909 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Day and night heat waves in the city of Barcelona. 1971-2020. 

Josep Roca and Blanca Arellano

There is no universal definition of a heatwave, but extreme events associated with particularly hot, sustained temperatures have been known to have a notable impact on human mortality, regional economies and ecosystems. In this paper, we use the concept of heatwave applied by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET). In this definition, a heatwave is considered an episode of at least three consecutive days in which the stations that are considered register maximums above the 95% percentile of the series of maximum daily temperatures for the months of July and August from the period 1971 to 2000. However, this definition has a major limitation: it refers only to maximum temperatures, not minimum ones. Maximum temperatures can have serious consequences, especially on heat stroke. However, the health effects are more pronounced in the case of night heat, where the inability to rest (especially in homes without air conditioning, as is generally the case in in Spain) can cause significant worsening of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases that produce a high proportion of premature deaths. For this reason, in this study we differentiate between heatwaves during the day (DHW) and at night (NHW), paying special attention to the latter.

The research aims to study extreme heat events in the city of Barcelona between 1971 and 2020. Since the urban climate presents a marked spatial variation, taking into account the geographical characteristics of the territory, as well as the spatial distribution of the island of urban heat, the research is carried out based on the information provided by four representative meteorological stations of the study area: Fabra Observatory, CMT, Raval and Barcelona Airport.

The maximum average temperatures at the Fabra Observatory, and for the last 50 years, increased 2.88 degrees, which represents an annual increase of 0.058 degrees/year. The minimum average temperature increased 2.38 degrees, 0.048 degrees/year. However, the increases differ very significantly depending on the spatial location of the meteorological station. The results are quite different for other observatories, as Barcelona airport. At the airport, the increase in maximum temperature was less prominent (2 °C in the last 50 years, 10.3%). However, the minimum temperatures increased by 35.8%; 3.62 °C between 1971 and 2020. An OLS model, with the maximum and minimum daily temperatures of the last 50 years from various stations (Fabra, Airport, Raval and CMT), and using the year, the month and the calendar day (cd *) as explanatory variables, generally confirmed the warming process in the Barcelona area.

Therefore, global warming is a clear reality in the Mediterranean area in which Barcelona is located. The work shows a marked difference in extreme heat events between different urban locations. The proximity to the sea, the altitude, the different urban density and the quantity and quality of urban greenery have a determining effect on daytime and nighttime heat waves.

How to cite: Roca, J. and Arellano, B.: Day and night heat waves in the city of Barcelona. 1971-2020., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6909, 2022.

EGU22-7718 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Assessment of climate change and human activities on vegetation development in Northeast China 

Lin Xue, Martin Kappas, Daniel Wyss, and Birgitta Putzenlechner

Vegetation in Northeast China (NEC) has faced dual challenges posed by climate change and human activities. However, the factors dominating vegetation development and their contribution remain unclear and cannot be precisely discussed. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the response of vegetation in different land cover types, climate regions, and time scales to water availability from 1990 to 2018 based on the relationship between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The effects of human activities and climate change on vegetation development were quantitatively evaluated using the residual analysis method. We showed that the area percentage with a positive correlation between NDVI and SPEI increases with the extension of time scales. NDVI of grass, sparse vegetation, rain-fed crop, and built-up land as well as sub-humid and semi-arid areas (drylands) correlated positively with SPEI, and the correlations increased with the extension of time scales. The negatively correlated area was concentrated in humid areas or areas covered by forests and shrubs. The maximum water surplus period for irrigated crops and forests, shrubs, wetlands, humid areas were 1-month and 6-months, respectively. Vegetation water surplus in humid areas weakens with warming, and vegetation water constraints in drylands enhance. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration had an overall negative effect on vegetation and precipitation is a controlling factor for vegetation development in semi-arid areas. Within the period of study, 53% of the vegetated area in NEC showed a trend of improvement, which is mainly attributed to human activities (93%), especially through the implementation of ecological restoration projects in NEC. The relative role of human activities and climate change in vegetation degradation areas were 56% and 44%, respectively. Our findings highlight that the government should more explicitly consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influence of human activities and water availability on vegetation under changing climate, and improve the resilience of regional water resources. The relative proportions and roles map of climate change and human activities in vegetation change areas provide a basis for government to formulate local-based management policies.

How to cite: Xue, L., Kappas, M., Wyss, D., and Putzenlechner, B.: Assessment of climate change and human activities on vegetation development in Northeast China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7718, 2022.

EGU22-7829 | Presentations | CL3.1.2 | Highlight

Attributing compound events to anthropogenic climate change 

Jakob Zscheischler and Flavio Lehner

Extreme event attribution answers the question whether and by how much anthropogenic climate change has contributed to the occurrence or magnitude of an extreme weather event. It is also used to link extreme event impacts to climate change. Impacts, however, are often related to multiple compounding climate drivers. Because extreme event attribution typically focuses on univariate assessments, these assessments might only provide a partial answer to the question of anthropogenic influence to a high-impact event. We present a theoretical extension to classical extreme event attribution for certain types of compound events. Based on synthetic data we illustrate how the bivariate fraction of attributable risk (FAR) differs from the univariate FAR depending on the extremeness of the event as well as the trends in and dependence between the contributing variables. Overall, the bivariate FAR is similar in magnitude or smaller than the univariate FAR if the trend in the second variable is comparably weak and the dependence between both variables is moderate or high, a typical situation for temporally co-occurring heatwaves and droughts. If both variables have similarly large trends or the dependence between both variables is weak, bivariate FARs are larger and are likely to provide a more adequate quantification of the anthropogenic influence. Using multiple climate model large ensembles, we apply the framework to two case studies, a recent sequence of hot and dry years in the Western Cape region of South Africa and two spatially co-occurring droughts in crop-producing regions in South Africa and Lesotho.

How to cite: Zscheischler, J. and Lehner, F.: Attributing compound events to anthropogenic climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7829, 2022.

EGU22-8045 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Climate change detection and attribution in extreme precipitation using compact representations 

Svenja Szemkus and Petra Friederichs

In the subproject CoDEx of the BMBF climXtreme project , we are investigating different data compression techniques to detect and attribute changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in a changing climate. Especially for local processes on the atmospheric mesoscale, climate change signals are often masked by additional variability, resulting in poor signal-to-noise ratios. Therefore, these only become visible when the data are analyzed in compressed form. Our focus is on unsupervised learning approaches such as principal component analysis developed specifically for extremes. We focus on extreme precipitation over Germany and analyze how different data compression techniques can be used in a detection and attribution (D&A)study. Besides others, we use the approach proposed by Cooley and Thibaud (2019) on the decomposition of the tail pairwise dependence matrix, as an analogue to the covariance matrix for extremal dependence. Furthermore, we use a dualtree wavelet transform to study changes in extreme precipitation at different scales and different orientations. A D&A study will provide deeper insight into the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. 

How to cite: Szemkus, S. and Friederichs, P.: Climate change detection and attribution in extreme precipitation using compact representations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8045, 2022.

EGU22-8088 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Using temperature and precipitation combined to detect and attribute aerosol effects on large-scale climate 

Carla Roesch, Andrew Ballinger, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele Hegerl

Anthropogenic aerosols (AER) have been found to impact both Earth’s energy and water cycle. Like greenhouse gases (GHG) they are an anthropogenic climate forcing, which will play an important role in shaping Earth’s future climate. To improve future predictions, it is, therefore, fundamental to understand and quantify the individual impacts these two forcings have on the climate system. This can be achieved by using detection and attribution methods facilitating the differentiation of the response of the climate system to different forcings.

Separating the signal of individual anthropogenic effects related to greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions is hindered by large uncertainties in the response to aerosol forcing in different climate models. Thus, in this study we investigate a joint change in temperature and precipitation to reduce the signal-to-noise ratio and better constrain the impact of anthropogenic aerosols since 1979. Building on previous findings on how aerosols affect climate, we focus on shifts in tropical precipitation by tracking wet/dry regions as well as changes in the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR), due to its unique response to different radiative forcings. Individual fingerprints are derived from large-ensembles of historical single-forcing simulations from three models that are part of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

We find inter-model agreement in the trends for wet regions, ITA, and DTR in single-forcing and historical (all-forcing) runs. Contrasting trends in these time series derived for AER-only and GHG-only simulations suggest that aerosols have offset some of the greenhouse gas induced precipitation and temperature changes in the past.  While a drying in the dry regions can be observed for GHG-only simulations, inter-model agreement is not found for aerosols. Early results show an improved constraint on the detection of a greenhouse gas signal when investigating a joint change in wet and dry regions, which is refined by including the other variables and indicators.

How to cite: Roesch, C., Ballinger, A., Schurer, A., and Hegerl, G.: Using temperature and precipitation combined to detect and attribute aerosol effects on large-scale climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8088, 2022.

EGU22-8246 | Presentations | CL3.1.2 | Highlight | CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture

Quantifying Causal Pathways of Teleconnections 

Marlene Kretschmer

Due to their relevance for regional weather and climate, teleconnections are an extremely active area of research. One key task is to quantify the contribution of a teleconnection to regional anomalies in both models and observations. This is, for instance, important to improve forecasts on time scales ranging from subseasonal to multidecadal, or to attribute ensemble spreads to changes in large-scale drivers. However, robustly estimating the effects of a teleconnection remains challenging due to the often simultaneous influences of multiple climate modes. While physical knowledge about the involved mechanisms is often available, how to extract a particular causal pathway from data are usually unclear.

In this talk I argue for adopting a causal inference-based framework in the statistical analysis of teleconnections to overcome this challenge. A causal approach requires explicitly including expert knowledge in the statistical analysis, which allows one to draw quantitative conclusions. I illustrate some of the key concepts of this theory with simple examples of well-known atmospheric teleconnections. Moreover, I show how the deductive nature of a causal approach can help to assess the plausible influence of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude winter weather, thereby helping to reconcile differences between models and observations. I finally discuss the particular challenges and advantages a causal inference-based approach implies for climate science.

 

References

Kretschmer, M., Adams, S. V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N., Saggioro, E., & Shepherd, T. G. (2021). Quantifying Causal Pathways of Teleconnections, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(12), E2247-E2263. Retrieved Jan 13, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/12/BAMS-D-20-0117.1.xml

Kretschmer, M., Zappa, G., and Shepherd, T. G. (2020), The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes, Weather and Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020

How to cite: Kretschmer, M.: Quantifying Causal Pathways of Teleconnections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8246, 2022.

EGU22-8622 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

When do regional tropical climate signals become detectable in CMIP5/6 simulations? 

Gopika Suresh, Iyyappan Suresh, Matthieu Lengaigne, Jérôme Vialard, Takeshi Izumo, and Sadhvi Kwatra

Estimating when anthropogenically-forced signals emerge from ambient natural climate variability is crucial for climate-change detection. Here we propose a new method for estimating the emergence time of climate signals based on a significance test on the nonlinear trend rather than the commonly-used method based on a signal-to-noise ratio. This method is less sensitive to the choice of a confidence level (0.1, 0.05 or 0.01) than the previous method to commonly-used signal to noise ratios (0.5, 1 or 2). For signals that tend to emerge in the late 21st century, our method tends to yield earlier detection dates, by taking the large number of degrees of freedom into account. Here, we apply this method to relative SST (RSST, SST minus its tropical mean) changes, which tend to emerge much later than SST change signals. RSST is an indicator of changes in the atmosphere vertical stability and thus of changes in tropical cyclones intensity and precipitation. By 2100, CMIP5/6 projections indicate greater than tropical average warming (positive RSST signal) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, equatorial Atlantic, and Arabian Sea, and reduced warming (negative RSST signal) in the three southern hemisphere subtropical gyres. In general agreement with observations, relative warming in the Arabian Sea and relative cooling in the South-Eastern Pacific are already detectable in a majority of models (median emergence time < 2020), making these regions suitable for testing a model's ability to predict a regional SST trend. In contrast, RSST signals in other regions do not become detectable until after 2050. Tropical precipitation projections indicate more (less) rainfall in regions of positive (negative) RSST change that typically emerge one or two decades later than RSST signals. This lack of currently-detectable regional rainfall trends in CMIP models makes it difficult to evaluate their ability to predict tropical regional rainfall trends. In general, signals tend to emerge later in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to both weaker signals and larger climate noise. The only exception is Sahel, where CMIP6 models already display a detectable rainfall increase, that is not yet detectable in CMIP5.

How to cite: Suresh, G., Suresh, I., Lengaigne, M., Vialard, J., Izumo, T., and Kwatra, S.: When do regional tropical climate signals become detectable in CMIP5/6 simulations?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8622, 2022.

EGU22-9497 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 

Olivia Ferguglia, Elisa Palazzi, and Jost von Hardenberg

Climate models are fundamental tools to understand the complexity of the climate system, to study  the processes at work and to provide credible future climate projections. Unfortunately, models often disagree significantly in the amplitude of different climate change signals and in their representation of the role of important feedbacks. In the past years the “Emergent Constraints” methodology has been developed for reducing uncertainties in climate-change projections. An Emergent Constraint (EC) is a statistical relationship between the inter-model spread of a measurable aspect of the present-day climate (predictor) and the inter-model spread of a variable projection (predictand), under a climate change scenario. If a significant correlation is found, observations of the predictor can be used to constrain model projections of the predictand and the uncertainties in climate model outputs can be narrowed. 

In the last two decades, ECs have been identified in different branches of climate science although just a limited number of these ECs is related to the hydrological cycle. Recently, a relevant number of EC in the literature was discovered to lack a satisfying physical explanation and many, developed and tested with CMIP5 ensemble, seem to be not-significant in the new CMIP6 ensemble. However, the analysis regarding ECs related to the hydrological cycle is still incomplete. The aim of this work is to test three ECs related to mean-precipitation and extreme precipitation events, originally identified in CMIP3 or CMIP5 data, and to evaluate if their statistical significance survives also in the CMIP6 ensemble: (a) global hydrological sensitivity used to constrain future changes in local extreme precipitation: we find this relationship not to be robust in CMIP6 models; (b) future changes in the Indian summer monsoon precipitation, constrained by Western Pacific mean precipitation: this relationship is not robust with the new ensemble; (c) changes in future extreme tropical precipitation, constrained by the same variable calculated in the past: we find this EC to be robust both in CMIP5 and CMIP6.

How to cite: Ferguglia, O., Palazzi, E., and von Hardenberg, J.: Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9497, 2022.

EGU22-9707 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Attribution of seasonally relevant winter and spring climate indices in Hungary 

Péter Szabó, Judit Bartholy, Zsófia Barna, Kinga Bokros, Sára Bordi, Anna Mráz, Ildikó Pieczka, and Rita Pongrácz

Although anthropogenic global warming is well-known within the scientific community, the public is still not certain how to associate specific local weather and climate events to this issue. Therefore, it is essential to raise public awareness by providing sound and readily understood scientific information, and to explain how humans contribute to specific (extreme) events. Although a few case studies for past high-impact weather events were assessed in Hungary, a systematic analysis of long-term past and future trends of these indices is missing, and their linkage to anthropogenic activity has not been addressed at all. Our attribution project (started in September 2021) aims to fill this gap in Hungary: the results of the analysis of seasonally relevant indices are published in each season at the time of an (extreme) event occurrence. The dissemination is done via an already established Hungarian platform (https://masfelfok.hu/) reaching the public with readily understood climate change information through their broad media coverage and a large social media network.

The assessments are prepared within the project using several data sources: (1) an ensemble of CMIP6 global climate model simulations of both natural-only forcings and historical runs, (2) an ensemble of regional climate model simulations from Euro-CORDEX, including both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, (3) a fine-resolution, homogenized observation-based gridded data for Hungary, (4) the ERA5 reanalysis. We address seasonally relevant extreme and compound events, and the attribution of pre-selected indices to anthropogenic activity through their intensity, duration, and frequency changes. For instance, frost days, annual temperature minima and return values, snowfall and heavy snowfall days are evaluated for winter, while the start of vegetation period, late frost, dry and heavy precipitation days for spring, as they are of most public interest. Furthermore, we determine how many seasonal record low/record high breakings happen and how large area within the domain is affected.

Preliminary winter results suggest that the decrease of frost days in Hungary is clearly due to anthropogenic activity, while it is not the case for the annual minimum temperatures but will be in the future. No significant decrease has been detected for the snowfall and heavy snowfall days, and the effects of anthropogenic activity on these indices will only occur following the pessimistic future scenario.

How to cite: Szabó, P., Bartholy, J., Barna, Z., Bokros, K., Bordi, S., Mráz, A., Pieczka, I., and Pongrácz, R.: Attribution of seasonally relevant winter and spring climate indices in Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9707, 2022.

EGU22-10422 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Attribution of 2021 Weather Extreme Events in British Columbia 

Elizaveta Malinina, Nathan Gillett, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Xuebin Zhang, Faron Anslow, and Francis Zwiers

In British Columbia, and in the Pacific North West America in general, 2021 was a year fraught with extreme weather events. First, in late June 2021 an unprecedented heat wave claimed over 600 lives, followed by in an extreme flood in mid-November that became one of Canada’s one of most expensive natural disasters. In this study, we provide separate attribution of these two events using CMIP6 temperature and precipitation data. For both events, we compare the current climate data with that from prior decades as well as data for the end of the 21st century under the SSP2.45 scenario. By fitting generalised extreme value distributions to all datasets, we were able to quantify the risk ratios as well as provide analysis of the changing frequency of such extreme events with in a warming climate.

How to cite: Malinina, E., Gillett, N., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Zhang, X., Anslow, F., and Zwiers, F.: Attribution of 2021 Weather Extreme Events in British Columbia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10422, 2022.

EGU22-10653 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Identifying sensitivities and uncertainties in the attribution of global fire weather extremes using CMIP6 ensembles 

Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, and Matthew Blackett

In response to the occurrence of a number of large wildfire events across the world in recent years, the question of the extent to which climate change may be altering the meteorological conditions conducive to wildfires has become a hot topic of debate. Despite the development of attribution methodologies for extreme events in the last decade, attribution studies dedicated explicitly to wildfire, or otherwise extreme ‘fire weather’, are still relatively few. In turn, there is a lack of consensus on how to define fire risk in a meteorological context, posing a challenge for research in this subfield. Recent work has offered clarification on uncertainties associated with the choice of meteorological indicator to represent fire weather in the context of extreme event attribution but there are additional sensitivities that are still not fully understood.

Here, using established statistical methodologies applied to six large (>10-member) CMIP6 model ensembles, we conduct probabilistic attribution of fire weather extremes across the world’s fire-prone regions. We assess trends in extremes in the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) using extreme value distributions, fitted with both annual maxima and peaks over a pre-defined threshold, and scaled to global mean surface temperature. An initial evaluation of model performance shows that, while all models are able to reasonably reproduce observed global patterns in extreme distribution parameters, there are some notable differences at the regional scale. Subsequently, we use probability ratio maps to quantify the influence of rising global temperatures on the changing frequency of FWI extremes. Our results highlight the sensitivity of probabilistic fire weather attribution methodologies to the choice of climate model ensemble. In conclusion, we therefore make a set of recommendations for future attribution of extreme fire weather episodes: (i) the use (and comparison) of multiple model ensembles; (ii) robust evaluation of model capacity to represent fire weather extremes.

How to cite: Liu, Z., Eden, J., Dieppois, B., Drobyshev, I., and Blackett, M.: Identifying sensitivities and uncertainties in the attribution of global fire weather extremes using CMIP6 ensembles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10653, 2022.

EGU22-10936 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Dynamics and attribution of exceptional Mediterranean heatwave in August 2021 

Neven-Stjepan Fuckar, Myles Allen, and Michael Obersteiner

Extreme weather and climate events - such as intense heatwaves, prolonged droughts and extensive wildfires - are aspects of the evolution of the climate system that are becoming more frequent and stronger in many parts of the world. Extremes can have substantial environmental and socio-economic impacts depending on vulnerability of exposed population, as well as present infrastructure and assets. In August 2021 extreme heat affected the broader Mediterranean region: on 11 August, a weather station in Syracuse (the birthplace of Archimedes on Sicily), Italy, reached 48.8 °C, the European near-surface temperature record, while Kairouan, Tunisia, reached a record 50.3 °C on the same day. 47.4 °C in Montoro set the national record for Spain on 14 August, while on the same day Madrid had its hottest day on the record with 42.7 °C. This was caused by an extensive heat dome, a large area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere leading to strong downward motion that compresses and heats up air in addition to the contribution from radiative heating. Furthermore, this heating was accompanied by devastating wildfires in several Mediterranean countries. Our study utilises a set of observations and reanalysis products combined with large ensembles of CMIP5/6 simulations to examine the role of anthropogenic drivers in this extreme event. We also use large ensembles of specifically designed historical/factual and natural/counterfactual simulations of EC-Earth3.3 coupled climate model at the standard resolution (T255L91 ORCA1L75) to assesses to what extent anthropogenic forcing modified the probability and magnitude of this event involving conditional perspective of the atmospheric circulation. The preliminary results points to a substantial role of the global climate change in modifying likelihood of this extreme event.

How to cite: Fuckar, N.-S., Allen, M., and Obersteiner, M.: Dynamics and attribution of exceptional Mediterranean heatwave in August 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10936, 2022.

EGU22-11239 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Detection of forced changes in the precipitation distribution using ridge regression 

Iris de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, and Reto Knutti

Detection and attribution (D&A) of anthropogenically forced changes to precipitation is challenging due to the high internal variability of precipitation and the limited spatial and temporal coverage of the observational records. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends.

Here, we use a statistical method – regularised linear regression, or ridge regression – to create physically interpretable detection metrics (fingerprints) for D&A of changes in the precipitation distribution with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The regression coefficients that make up the fingerprints of forced change are based on the CMIP6 multi-model archive data masked to match observational coverage, and are then applied to gridded precipitation observations to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate. 

We show that the signature of forced change is detected and attributed to external forcing in two different observational datasets in global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation (PRCPTOT, and Rx1d, respectively). If the global mean trend is removed from the data, forced changes are still detected, indicating that climate change affects the spatial patterns of precipitation, and increasing confidence in the results of this method for D&A of precipitation, as well as in climate models capturing the relevant processes that contribute to the regional patterns of change. Furthermore, we show the sensitivity of our D&A results to several ‘design choices’, including target metric of forced change, regularisation parameter, season of interest, (spatial coverage of) observational dataset used, the forced trend length and the region of interest (tropics vs. subtropics). 

The method is largely insensitive to target metric and regularisation parameter, increasing confidence in the robustness of the results. However, we find that June-July-August generally has low forced trend signal-to-noise ratio in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, the observational dataset choice affects detectability not only through coverage differences but also dataset disagreement, and the chosen trend length can result in different forced trends when comparing observations to model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed increase in extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection models are found to rely primarily on the signal in extratropical northern hemisphere data, which is at least partly due to observational coverage, but potentially also due to presence of a more robust signal in the northern hemisphere in general. When these regions are excluded, detection of significant forced changes is no longer possible, which may also have implications for the ability to assess risks and inform adaptation policies in the tropics and the global south.

Ridge regression is powerful for D&A of the precipitation distribution, opening up possibilities for extension of the method to learn more about mechanisms driving forced changes in precipitation. However, internal variability, limited coverage in time and space, and dataset disagreement in precipitation data continue to play a large role.

How to cite: de Vries, I., Sippel, S., and Knutti, R.: Detection of forced changes in the precipitation distribution using ridge regression, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11239, 2022.

EGU22-12074 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Accounting for the NAO when applying observational constraints to future European climate projections 

Andrew Ballinger, Andrew Schurer, and Gabriele Hegerl

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic region, affecting temperature and rainfall over timescales from days through to seasons and decades. Previous studies have shown that variations in the NAO yield significant multi-decadal trends in European rainfall, especially in winter, and the magnitude of past multi-decadal NAO variability is generally not reproduced by CMIP class models This has important implications for deriving observational constraints, and the application of these scaling factors to projections of future European rainfall.

We have constructed two sets of multi-model-mean spatiotemporal fingerprints of European rainfall: one set that retains NAO variability, and another set that excludes the variability associated with the NAO (removing it using a simple regression technique). Following the so-called Allen-Scott-Kettleborough ‘ASK’ method, we conduct total-least-squares regressions using the two different sets of fingerprints against the observations in order to analyse the impact of removing the NAO in potentially enhancing the signal-to-noise. The derived scaling factors shed light on the ability of CMIP6 models to reproduce the magnitude of the forced response in precipitation, and confidence intervals for each of the scaling factors describes the range of magnitudes of the model response that are consistent with the observed signal.

Here we focus on one clear example, northern European rainfall, although we have also analysed additional European regions and surface air temperature across all of the seasons. There is an increasing trend in observed rainfall anomalies associated with the NAO over northern Europe, most pronounced in winter, which is not replicated in models. Once the variability associated with the NAO is removed the magnitude of the observed trends is reduced, and the scaling factors (derived in the ASK framework) are similarly reduced.

Along with a shift in the magnitude that comes from the modified observations, the constraint also tightens (the spread in consistent scaling factors narrows) due to the increased signal-to-noise in the modelled response once the NAO is removed from the simulations. This has important implications for the use of scaling factors to constrain future projections of European climate. The observed decadal to multi-decadal trends resulting from known modes of internal variability should be accounted for in the derivation of scaling factors to better capture the forced signal and bolster confidence in the constrained projections.

How to cite: Ballinger, A., Schurer, A., and Hegerl, G.: Accounting for the NAO when applying observational constraints to future European climate projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12074, 2022.

Extreme precipitation, both the occurrence and intensity, over the Northeast United States has significantly increased since the 1990s, evidenced by observations. The most salient increase has happened in the fall season (September to November). Understanding the attribution and projection of long-term trends in regional extreme precipitation is essential to adaptationion planning such as infrastructure upgrade. However, such work is challenging due to uncertainties caused by internal climate variability and the requirement of medium-to-high model resolution as well as ensemble size. In this work, we leverage the newly-developed GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) models which generate 25-km high-resolution simulations (ten members; SPEAR-HI) and 50-km large-ensemble simulations (30 members; SPEAR-MED) for both historical simulations from 1921 to 2014 and projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP585) from 2014 to 2100. We aim to address two related scientific questions using GFDL-SPEAR: (1) what are the factors that have contributed to the increasing autumn extreme precipitation over the Northeast US since 1990s? How much of the increase could be attributed to anthropogenic forcing? (2) when would the increased extreme precipitation in response to forced climate change emerge from the noise of internal climate variability?

Our preliminary results first suggest that higher atmospheric resolution in climate models is critical to facilitate the simulations of regional extreme precipitation. For example, SPEAR-HI can simulate comparable frequency of extreme precipitation over the Northeast US (rain rate > 50 mm/day), compared to the observation; while SPEAR-MED underestimates the frequency. Second, the recent increasing Northeast US extreme precipitation is unlikely due to the warming North Atlantic sea surface temperature, even though the timing of the abrupt increase in extreme precipitation coincided with the timing when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shifted from a cold to warm phase in the mid-1990s. Our ongoing work focuses on evaluating the attributions from other factors including internal variability, aerosols, and greenhouse gas. Last, we analyze SPEAR-HI SSP585 projections and extended control simulations starting from the year 1850. We estimate that the anthropogenically forced increase in the Northeast US autumn extreme precipitation would emerge from the noise of internal climate variability around the 2040s. However, ongoing work will employ more systematic methods to estimate the time of emergence.

How to cite: Jong, B.-T. and Delworth, T. L.: Using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations to detect, attribute, and project changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast U.S., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13358, 2022.

EGU22-13379 | Presentations | CL3.1.2

Graphical analysis applications to study variability and trends of rainfall and streamflow in Colombian catchments 

Julio Isaac Montenegro Gambini and Magaly Cusipuma Ayuque

Monitoring trends and continuous changes to complement local studies on discharge and precipitation are becoming increasingly important, assessing systematically its temporal and spatial variation characteristics. It is also necessary to provide detailed study on the driving mechanisms of those variations, which can be a result of anthropogenic activities as it specifically affects particular regions and terrains. These data play very significant roles in measuring and forecasting potential impacts and lead to future improved regional flow regulations for better water resources management. One of the most effective methods for observing the effects of climate change on hydrometeorological variables is the trend analysis, with recently new graphical methods that represents an innovative alternative to the classical ones. In this work, mean monthly, annual mean, minimum and maximum precipitation was examined to analyze spatiotemporal variations, seasonality shifts and trends with records that can extend from 1910 to 2019 in the hydrometeorological network. The flow discharge were also analysed considering catchments with unimpaired streamflow in unregulated rivers. Different homogeneity and shift detection methods were used to check their homogeneity before conducting trend analysis. Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA), Innovative trend analysis (ITA) with the Significance Test and Mann-Kendall (MK) non-parametric methods were compared, showing their sensitivity and their ability to explain a monthly trend sequence and periodicity in the studied region in order to explain adequately the temporal internal variability.

How to cite: Montenegro Gambini, J. I. and Cusipuma Ayuque, M.: Graphical analysis applications to study variability and trends of rainfall and streamflow in Colombian catchments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13379, 2022.

The Mediterranean Basin (which includes the Mediterranean Sea and the countries bordering it) is often referred to as a hotspot for climate change and biodiversity. This image is used to illustrate the multiple risks for the region, its people and its ecosystems. These risks have been assessed by a new analysis of the scientific literature (MedECC 2020), concluding that it is the sum of climate change, pollution, unsustainable use of land and sea and the invasion of non-native species that induces these multiple risks, which are often underestimated. The Mediterranean territory is also a biodiversity hotspot with 25,000 plant species, 60% of which are endemic. It provided a “service” to plant and animal species as refuges during the last ice age (when the climate was much colder and the sea level was 120 m lower). These ecosystems are now under the triple threat of drought, rising sea level and intensified land use. Forest fires due to heat waves and droughts will be increasingly dramatic despite prevention efforts and fire response forces. Climate change, pollution and over-fishing are having a heavy impact on marine ecosystems, which contain 18% of known species and cover 0.82% of the global ocean. This talk will depict a picture of these present and future risks. A focus will be done on the viticulture which is iconic of the Mediterranean agricultural production and which is very vulnerable to climate change especially on its southern fringe where more intense and frequent droughts are projected. The methodology involves the use of a vegetation model offline coupled to earth system models. A shift of several degrees toward the north is projected for the vine area in case of a global warming larger than +2°C according to the pre-industrial period.

MedECC (2020) Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Marini, K. (eds.)], Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 632pp.

How to cite: Guiot, J.: Risks of environmental and climate change for the Mediterranean ecosystems, with a focus on mediterranean vines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-773, 2022.

EGU22-1723 | Presentations | CL3.1.4 | Highlight

To what degree can coastal waters be protected by local efforts? 

Kari Hyytiäinen, Inese Huttunen, Niina Kotamäki, Harri Kuosa, and Janne Ropponen

Coastal ecosystems are hotspots of marine biodiversity, marine pollution, and multiple human interests. A large share of responsibilities of managing and protecting the coastal ecosystems - often rich in diversity and amenity values - is typically mandated to municipalities, communities and institutions sharing the coastline and catchment area. On the other hand, the quality of water – and hence the state of the coastal ecosystems – is also dependent on the level of water pollution in the neighboring regions.  The objective of this paper is to assess the leverage and effectiveness of local pollution mitigation efforts in improving the water quality of nearby coastal waters. For this end, we employ a systems approach and develop a modelling framework to describe human-nature-human interactions to conduct what-if analyses for alternative societal developments and levels of policy effort in nutrient abatement. Our case study area is Archipelago Sea in the Baltic Sea. We demonstrate that there is room and opportunity for clear improvement towards the Good Environmental State (GES) in most parts of the Archipelago Sea. However, GES is far from reachable in any Archipelago Sea area, coastal region or inner bay through unilateral local action conducted in the catchment draining to the Archipelago Sea only. Local water protection efforts are necessary but not adequate measure to render the Archipelago Sea to a good environmental state. GES can be achieved for most areas within Archipelago Sea through well-coordinated and carefully adjusted load reductions and joint action between regions and countries that share the Baltic Sea catchment, except for inner archipelago, river mouths and the inner bays. In these areas – which also occur to be amongst the hotspot areas for various human interests – GES could be achieved only through extremely expensive local mitigation effort in the catchment area. To reach GES also on inner archipelago would require major transitions, investment in R&D and subsequent technological advancements in the energy sector, wastewater treatment, agriculture, and control of nutrients stored in the sediments of coastal seas.  Moreover, this result calls for consideration on the relevance of current threshold values and targets for GES in different coastal zones.  There is need for either more detailed classification that better accounts for geomorphological qualities of the coastal zone, or a new set of indicators that reflect the provision of ecosystem services rather than biological production. Our simulations also imply that the phenology of phytoplankton biomass occurrence is altered by increased nutrient loads. The shifts in the timing and relative abundance of spring and summer blooms are worth considering when planning the mitigation measures and the optimal timing/targeting of them.

How to cite: Hyytiäinen, K., Huttunen, I., Kotamäki, N., Kuosa, H., and Ropponen, J.: To what degree can coastal waters be protected by local efforts?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1723, 2022.

EGU22-2802 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

Climate Change in Mediterranean climate-type regions: A global approach based on the Köppen-Geiger classification 

Diego Urdiales, George Zittis, and Panos Hadjinicolaou

Mediterranean climate types (MC) are characterized by temperate, wet winters, and hot or warm dry summers and are mostly found at the western edges of all inhabited continents in locations determined by the geography of winter storm tracks and summer subtropical anticyclones. According to the Köppen-Geiger classification, this climate type is classified as Csa and Csb. Although such regions are limited in terms of area, their current population exceeds 700 million inhabitants globally. According to the scientific literature, most MC regions, became hotter and drier during the last century, while future climate projections suggest that these observed trends will continue for the upcoming decades. This combined effect of warming and drying will likely augment the climate change impacts in the MC societies and ecosystems. In this study we investigate how these regions will be impacted by global warming compared to the rest of the world and other regions in the same latitudinal zone. For defining the Csa and Csb regions of the Köppen-Geiger classification, we used the gridded CRU monthly precipitation and temperature observations. Then we analyzed temperature anomalies (area-weighted means) in different MC sub-regions, including North America (NA), South America (SA), Mediterranean Basin (MB), and the southwest of southern Africa (SAF) and southwest Australia (SAU). Our analysis shows that Csa and Csb regions worldwide have not undergone significant spatio-temporal changes during the last 120 years. Nevertheless, we found differences in the observed temperature trends, particularly in the last four decades (1981-2020). In more detail, the Mediterranean Basin with an observed trend of about 0.4 °C/decade has warmed faster than the global mean (0.28 °C/decade) and other MC regions (0.15-0.28 °C/decade). Finally, we will explore the future climate evolution of MC regions and if the observed trends will continue in the 21st century by analyzing a bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled dataset of CMIP6 climate projections. For supporting decision-making and climate mitigations efforts we focus on different global warming levels (e.g., 1.5, 2, and 4°C).

 

Keywords: Köppen-Geiger, Climate Change; Mean temperature anomalies; World’s Mediterranean climates

 

 

 

How to cite: Urdiales, D., Zittis, G., and Hadjinicolaou, P.: Climate Change in Mediterranean climate-type regions: A global approach based on the Köppen-Geiger classification, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2802, 2022.

EGU22-2885 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

Stalagmite record of Last Glacial Maximum to early Holocene climate change in southwest Iran 

Mojgan Soleimani, Stacy Carolin, Alireza Nadimi, and Christoph Spötl

Iran is a country with large climate contrast and thus highly vulnerable to climate change. The two major mountain ranges, Alborz in the north and Zagros in the west, impede the penetration of Mediterranean and Caspian winds to the central plateau, leading to precipitation on the topographical highs as well as deserts in the center of the country. Semi-arid southern Iran has struggled with severe droughts for several decades, and destructive floods in recent years underscore the vulnerability to ongoing climate change.

Records of paleoclimate in the Middle East, useful for improving our knowledge about the natural variability of atmospheric circulation patterns in this region, are sparse in comparison to other regions. In particular, there are currently no paleoclimate studies based on speleothem archives in Iran which span the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene. 

Here we report a well-dated, high-resolution stalagmite proxy record from the foothills of the Zagros Mountains, SIB-4, which for the first time covers the LGM as well as parts of the deglaciation and reaches into the early Holocene. SIB-4 oxygen isotope (δ18O) values are ~4‰ higher in the LGM relative to the early Holocene. Other stalagmite records in the Middle East also show higher δ18O values in the LGM relative to the Holocene, such as from Soreq cave in Israel[1] (Δδ18O = +3‰), Jeita cave in Lebanon[2] (Δδ18O = +2.5‰), Dim cave in Turkey[3]  (Δδ18O = +6‰), and Moomi cave in Oman[4] (Δδ18O = +2‰). A large portion of the Δδ18O of SIB-4 was likely caused by colder and drier conditions in the LGM. This interpretation is supported by the SIB-4 carbon isotope (δ13C) values, which are ~7‰ higher in the LGM relative to the early Holocene. These high δ13C values, which approach the values of the marine host rock, are attributed to sparse vegetation (steppe type) and related reduced soil bioproductivity. 

SIB-4 contains three growth hiatuses during the deglaciation, 17.8-17.2 ka, 15.1-14.7 ka, and 13.4-11.7 ka, all coincident with millennial- to centennial-scale dry periods previously identified by a dust record from a peat bog in Southeast Iran[1]. Dry conditions during the youngest SIB-4 hiatus are also supported by the δ18O and δ13C values which increase sharply immediately before the hiatus. SIB-4 δ18O and δ13C values decrease sharply at 14.7 ka, marking more humid conditions coincident with the onset of the last interstadial known from many records across the Northern Hemisphere.


[1] Bar-Matthews et al. (2003). Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta.

[2] Cheng et al. (2015). Geophysical Research Letters.

[3] Ünal-İmer et al. (2015). Scientific Reports.

[4] Fleitmann et al. (2003). Quaternary Research.

[5] Safaeirad et al. (2020). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

How to cite: Soleimani, M., Carolin, S., Nadimi, A., and Spötl, C.: Stalagmite record of Last Glacial Maximum to early Holocene climate change in southwest Iran, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2885, 2022.

EGU22-4655 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

Holocene Paleoenvironments in the Western Mediterranean Sea: palynological evidences on the Algerian coast and climatic reconstructions 

Vincent Coussin, Aurélie Penaud, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Odile Peyron, Marie Alexandrine Sicre, Nadine Tisnerat-Laborde, Nathalie Babonneau, and Antonio Cattaneo

Environmental conditions along the Algerian margin (AM) involve complex atmosphere-hydrosphere-biosphere interactions with superimposed anthropogenic activities on adjacent watersheds across the Holocene. Surface waters of the Atlantic Ocean entering the western Mediterranean Sea become the Algerian Current (AC) flowing along the North African coast and generating anticyclonic eddies. Upwelled waters are other recurring hydrological feature reflecting the instability of the AC. In this area, Holocene vegetation and paleohydrological dynamics have not yet been described. The marine core MD04-2801 (2,067 m water depth) has been analyzed to assess environmental and climatic conditions over the last 14 kyrs BP at a secular-scale resolution to fill this gap. A multi-proxy approach including terrestrial (pollen grains and continental non-pollen palynomorphs such as Glomus spores and freshwater microalgae) and marine (dinoflagellate cysts or dinocysts) palynological data as well as sedimentological data (grain-size analysis and clay mineral assemblages) and biomarkers (alkenones and n-alkanes) have been used to investigate the links between past sea surface hydrological conditions characterized by the over-representation of heterotrophic dinocyst taxa (especially Brigantedinium spp.) and regional environmental changes on nearby watersheds. Quantifications of hydrological and climate parameters are also estimated using the Modern Analogue Technique applied to dinocyst and pollen assemblages. Our data evidence linkages between continental dryness or moisture and surface ocean conditions. High productivity is recorded during the cold and arid climate conditions of the Younger Dryas (12.7 to 11.7 ka BP). During the Early-Middle Holocene (11.7 to 8.2 and 8.2 to 4.2 ka BP), fluvial discharges increase concomitantly with the colonization of coastlands by the Mediterranean forest and oligotrophic conditions in the AM. In contrast, aridification characterizes the Late Holocene with the notable 4.2 ka BP megadrought  between 4.3 and 3.9 ka BP. Comparison between with other paleoenvironmental records from the Gulf of Cadiz to the Siculo-Tunisian strait underlines a west to east climatic gradient at orbital and infra-orbital timescales, with marked cold-dry events at 9, 8.1, 7.3 and 6.5 ka BP. This zonal gradient is discussed to explain contradictory results from the Alboran Sea to Tunisia. Finally, the last 3 kyrs BP highlight the establishment of modern ocean production conditions reflecting both vertical mixing in the AM (wind-driven eddies of the AC) and nutrient-enriched fluvial discharges intensified by human land-use.

How to cite: Coussin, V., Penaud, A., Combourieu-Nebout, N., Peyron, O., Sicre, M. A., Tisnerat-Laborde, N., Babonneau, N., and Cattaneo, A.: Holocene Paleoenvironments in the Western Mediterranean Sea: palynological evidences on the Algerian coast and climatic reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4655, 2022.

EGU22-5849 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

Using local moisture recycling to assess the impact of regreening on the local water cycle in five Mediterranean regions 

Jolanda Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Bert Hamelers, Mohsen Soltani, Obbe Tuinenburg, and Stefan Dekker

Mediterranean regions worldwide are expected to face an increase in water scarcity due to land degradation and climate change. Regreening enhances infiltration and preserves evapotranspiration, which may enhance rainfall locally and thus potentially reduce water scarcity. However, the exact impact of such land cover changes on the hydrological cycle remains unclear. To assess the impact of regreening on the local water cycle, we aimed to identify drivers of the local moisture recycling ratio (LMR) for five Mediterranean regions: southwestern Australia, California, central Chile, the Mediterranean Basin, and the Cape region of South Africa. We defined LMR as the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approximately 50 km from its source and we calculated it using the output of a Lagrangian atmospheric moisture tracking model. For this, we studied the correlation between LMR and ecohydrological variables (dependent on the hydrological cycle or vegetation, i.e., precipitation, evaporation, aridity and vegetation cover) and non-ecohydrological variables (i.e., wind, orography and distance to the nearest coast) using Spearman rank correlation and principal component analyses. We find first, on average, LMR is small (1-2%) but varies among and within the five regions. Second, precipitation corresponds strongest to LMR in all five regions. Third, regreening could enhance LMR and strengthen the local water cycle for all five Mediterranean regions, although to different extents. The results suggest that an increase in evaporation due to regreening positively affects LMR and thus strengthens the local water cycle. The enhanced local water cycle reduces aridity, which induces LMR, and thus a positive feedback might be established. Finally, the correlation between LMR and ecohydrological and non-ecohydrological variables varies among the five regions. Therefore, the variables influencing LMR most are different for each region. Our results suggest that the potential impact of regreening varies among the Mediterranean regions due to the difference in correlations between LMR and the non-ecohydrological variables. Our study helps understand where regreening might benefit the local water cycle in regions with a Mediterranean climate.

How to cite: Theeuwen, J., Staal, A., Hamelers, B., Soltani, M., Tuinenburg, O., and Dekker, S.: Using local moisture recycling to assess the impact of regreening on the local water cycle in five Mediterranean regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5849, 2022.

EGU22-5939 | Presentations | CL3.1.4 | Highlight

Interannual olive yield modulation forced by climate stressors in Italy: a composite index approach to support crop management 

Arianna Di Paola, Edmondo Di Giuseppe, and Massimiliano Pasqui

Even though a large part of the Italian peninsula is characterized by a Mediterranean climate intrinsically highly suitable for olive cultivation, farmers may experience variable agronomic and management costs due to interannual yield variability. A synoptic picture of major climate stressors and their ongoing impacts on olive yield variability at a broad spatio-temporal scale are scarce, but, if identified, could enhance the development of actionable services to alert stakeholders of potential climate risks. We analyzed Italian olive yield data from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT), aggregated at the provincial level, during 2006-2020, and several climatic variables from Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWR) to i) explore olive yields trends and inter-annual variations over the whole peninsula; ii) identify major climate stressors likely responsible for the largest drops in yield; iii) build a composite index that summarizes the risk of having exceptionally low yields due to the occurrence of multiple climate stressors; to this end, we defined two major classes of yield, namely exceptionally low and high yields (LY and HY, respectively), and explored the climatic variables, aggregated on a bimonthly time scale, determining yield in outcomes. It is worth noting that the use of bimonthly periods provides a means of examining the seasonal effects of stressors while providing the basis for near-real-time forecasting. Moreover, five years (i.e., 2009, 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2019) characterized by a conspicuous number of both LY and HY were focused to examine whether the composite risk index has application at more local scales. Results are discussed and some possible explanations based on the current knowledge of olive developmental ecology are provided. We suggest our approach as a promising yet still-in-progress work that could pave the way to an integrated meteorological seasonal forecast system to provide timely insight on factors affecting within-season yield development.   

How to cite: Di Paola, A., Di Giuseppe, E., and Pasqui, M.: Interannual olive yield modulation forced by climate stressors in Italy: a composite index approach to support crop management, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5939, 2022.

EGU22-6928 | Presentations | CL3.1.4 | Highlight

A Sustainable Freshwater Competence Centre in Finland 

Cintia B Uvo, Petteri Alho, Anna-Stiina Heiskanen, Harri Kaartinen, Maria Kämäri, Eliisa Lotsari, Hannu Marttila, Anna-Kaisa Ronkanen, and Jari Silander

A competence center of the water sector for boreal and subarctic catchment, river and lake environments was highly needed, as impacts of climate change on river basins, adaptation, and resilience request detailed analysis of the behavior of river basins under extreme conditions. This further demands detailed measurements in time and space of morphological, hydrological, and biological variables. A consortium of private and public institutions in Finland have been formed to establish a Sustainable Freshwater Competence Centre to support detailed monitoring, research, development of new techniques and equipment innovation.

The complete venture structure includes a network of public and private institutions that supports measurement the development of instruments; a research infrastructure, composed of eight sites (three supersites), and the development of digital solutions, such as digital twins and data transfer, to generate cost-effective monitoring and model river connectivity, hydrological processes, as well as nutrient and carbon loads from different land use in multi scale river basins.

Hydro-RDI-Network was inaugurated in 2021 to serve as the first Finnish competence center of the water sector. It aims to improve and implement river and catchment measurement, mapping, modelling approaches, and innovation. The Hydro-RI-Platform research infrastructure (2022 onwards) will facilitate solving environmental issues (e.g. erosion, flooding, water quality) of these fragile boreal and subarctic freshwater environments. A pool of unique instruments for bathymetric, hydrological, hydraulic, morphodynamic and water quality measurements, with a variety of autonomous under- and above-water sensor platforms, a mobile field laboratory facility, and a data sharing platform are developed to study essential scientific questions in present and future hydrology.

Green-Digi-Basin (2022 onwards) aims to develop state-of-the-art understanding on green and digital transform in river basin and provide new tools and integrated modelling approaches for sustainable water resource management to assess impacts of nature-based solutions (e.g. peatland restoration, wetland and gypsum treatment) and land use changes through boreal-subarctic river basins. These will be done by utilizing remote sensing technologies, laser scanning high-resolution water quality and flow sensors, river basin 3D-mapping and geospatial analyses. Online data transfer systems, automatic data analysis will serve processed data to modelling software such as national wide river basin model WSFS-VEMALA to develop digital twins for river basin management.

The holistic concept of the Sustainable Freshwater Competence Centre in Finland will create a broad and reliable source of hydrologic monitoring, research, development, and innovation to support the adaptation of the hydrology of the Baltic Region to climate change.

How to cite: B Uvo, C., Alho, P., Heiskanen, A.-S., Kaartinen, H., Kämäri, M., Lotsari, E., Marttila, H., Ronkanen, A.-K., and Silander, J.: A Sustainable Freshwater Competence Centre in Finland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6928, 2022.

EGU22-7079 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

System dynamics modelling of linked land-coast-sea systems for water quality management under different RCP-SSP scenarios 

Samaneh Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, Zahra Kalantari, and Georgia Destouni

The human-nature interactions driving water quality deterioration in linked land-coast-sea systems are complex, including numerous components across different water environments. This complexity has led to many unsuccessful or insufficient efforts for water quality improvement, as seen, for example, in the Baltic Sea and its coasts that suffer from severe eutrophication long after several policies and measures have been repeatedly taken for mitigating excess nutrient loads. Considering the Swedish water management district of Northern Baltic Proper and its surrounding coastal areas and associated marine waters of the Baltic Sea, this study has used a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach to investigate possible future shifts in regional water availability and quality under different regional change scenarios. The SD model is developed based on a stakeholder-identified problem-oriented system network diagram that includes key land-coast-sea system interactions. The scenarios are developed based on scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), complemented with insights from the IPCC report ‘Global warming of 1.5°C’ to reflect possible future changes in human pressures and hydro-climatic conditions. Relevant RCPs and SSPs are downscaled to region-specific change scenarios for associated model input variables, and their combined impacts on system behavior are evaluated using various key performance indicators defined for socioeconomic sectors, natural water systems, and policy and management aspects. Results show that further investment and development are needed for urban storm water handling and wastewater treatment from both water quantity and quality perspectives. Water quality management strategies also need to account for and target long-lived nutrient legacy sources to mitigate their further contribution to water quality problems in the study region. Furthermore, policy targets defined for water quality improvement, for example, in the Baltic Sea Action Plan, need to be updated based on regional water-related impacts of projected hydro-climatic changes and expected future socioeconomic conditions. The updated targets, however, can only be achieved if synergistic management measures are taken across the land-coast-sea continuum. SD modelling and scenario analysis, as established, applied and will be further developed in this study, can support identification of efficient policy and management strategies for water quality improvement by assessing their performance and exploring possible sustainable solutions under different future development scenarios.

How to cite: Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S., Kalantari, Z., and Destouni, G.: System dynamics modelling of linked land-coast-sea systems for water quality management under different RCP-SSP scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7079, 2022.

EGU22-8533 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

The future of Gulf of Bothnia, possible changes on salinity and currents 

Simo-Matti Siiriä, Sam Fredriksson, Jari Haapala, and Lars Arneborg

Understanding the physical development of the Gulf of Bothnia is vital in estimating the future of the area, both for humans and nature alike. 

In the SmartSea project we have made simulations of future scenarios for the Gulf of Bothnia. We have simulated a historical control period of 1976-2006 with three different downscaled global circulation model forcings, and use these as comparisons for runs made with corresponding model forcings for the years 2006-2100 with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. 

In this presentation we analyze the changes in salinity and overturning circulation development within the simulation runs. The overturning circulation is characterized by being divided into the two basins Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay divided by the Quarken. The circulation in each of the basins is composed of one estuarine circulation with a cyclonic one superimposed. 

Local changes in salinity within the Gulf of Bothnia are affected by the stratification, changes of current patterns and river inflows, although its general salinity development is largely determined by the changes in the Baltic Proper.

The comparison between our simulation runs demonstrate that small changes in conditions can produce very different salinity trends, as either weaken, or strengthen the general circulation of the GoB. While the general salinity trend over the 2006-2100 period is slightly decreasing, the trend can be on the rise for decades within the simulation.

How to cite: Siiriä, S.-M., Fredriksson, S., Haapala, J., and Arneborg, L.: The future of Gulf of Bothnia, possible changes on salinity and currents, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8533, 2022.

In the last 20 years the anthropogenic pressure on the ocean and its ecosystems have been increasing, inducing considerable oceanographic and biogeochemical changes. The global warming impact is projected to increase further in the next decades. Consequently, changes in reef fish distribution, and the subsequent cascading effects on biodiversity, ecosystem function, reefs’ services, climate feedbacks, and socio-economic wellbeing are inevitable. To understand the extent and the impact of these changes, it is of fundamental importance to have reliable climate information at high spatio-temporal resolution, integrating interannual-to-long-term atmospheric-oceanic variability. Earth System Models are too coarse to fully resolve key features at the local scales. A challenge that can be overcome with dynamical downscaling, a powerful tool to increase our understanding of future changes in coastal regions. We use the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System to simulate the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) circulation and biogeochemistry. The model includes an atmospheric component, the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) and an oceanic component, the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a biogeochemistry module. Present (1995-2016) and future (2025-2050) years will be dynamically downscaled, at a 20 km and 4 km resolution, from global reanalysis and the Norwegian Earth System model NorESM. To investigate the variability and the extent of anthropogenic-induced climate change impact on the local ecosystem, two contrasting future scenarios, the “strong mitigation” (SSP1-2.6) and the “business-as-usual” (SSP5-8.5), will be simulated. The performance of the model, its reliability and improvements in projecting future changes are presented here. We thoughtfully validate the model output, by comparing present days results with reanalysis and satellite data to demonstrate its potential to deliver crucial information for investigating climate changes impacts on the distribution of reef fish throughout the ETP. 

How to cite: De Falco, C., Mooney, P., and Tjiputra, J.: Developing a high resolution coupled ocean-atmospheric model to understand reef fish distribution in the Eastern Tropical Pacific in the present and future climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9095, 2022.

EGU22-10899 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

Understanding future changes in ocean eddy kinetic energy 

Junghee Yun, Kyung-Ja Ha, and Sun-Seon Lee

Ocean eddies, which present different properties to their surroundings, play pivotal roles in transporting heat, salt, organic carbon, and nutrients around the ocean, ending up controlling regional and global climate. Eddy kinetic energy (EKE), defined as the kinetic energy of the time-varying component, is one of the most crucial indicators for observing the upwelling and downwelling induced by ocean eddies. We aim to understand the future changes in ocean eddy activities and find the possible cause of them using an ultra-high-resolution climate simulation of CESM 1.2.2, with about 25 km horizontal resolution and 30 vertical levels in the atmosphere, and about 10 km horizontal resolution and 62 levels in the ocean, under different levels of greenhouse gas conditions: Present-day run (PD, fixed CO2 concentration of 367 ppm), Doubling CO2 run (2xCO2, 734 ppm), Quadrupling CO2 run (4xCO2, 1468 ppm). Model simulation shows that compared to PD, the global EKE will increase about 6.7 % and 14.7 % in 2xCO2 and 4xCO2, respectively, but with the nonuniformed spatial distributions. The results show that the EKE  increases about 12.5 % in 2xCO2 and decreases about 0.5 % in 4xCO2 in the Kuroshio Current region. In contrast, it decreases about 4.8 % (22.5 %) in 2xCO2 (4xCO2) in the Gulf Stream region. To find the underlying processes for the EKE change, we focus on identifying future changes in the energetics of eddy-mean flow interactions. Based on the energetics of eddy-mean flow interaction, the strengthened barotropic conversion will enhance the EKE in 2xCO2 over the Kuroshio Current region. Otherwise, the suppression of buoyancy flux will weaken the EKE in 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 over the Gulf Stream region.

How to cite: Yun, J., Ha, K.-J., and Lee, S.-S.: Understanding future changes in ocean eddy kinetic energy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10899, 2022.

EGU22-11404 | Presentations | CL3.1.4 | Highlight

Spatial variation of extreme storm characteristics over Gulf of Gdańsk and their long-term temporal changes 

Witold Cieślikiewicz and Aleksandra Cupiał

In this work we present the principal results of analysis of spatio-temporal variations of extreme storm features over the Gulf of Gdańsk located in the southern Baltic Sea. By extreme storms we mean storms that induce highest waves in various regions of Gulf of Gdańsk. The analysis of meteorological conditions over the Baltic Sea and wind wave fields in the Gulf of Gdańsk was carried out using 44-year long time series of gridded hindcast REMO meteorological data (Jacob and Podzun, 1997; Feser et al., 2001) and HIPOCAS wind wave data (Cieślikiewicz et al., 2005). 

An important aim of this study is to obtain the most characteristic features of extreme storms that had created extreme risks and hazards in the Gulf of Gdańsk during the investigated period 1958–2001. The Gulf of Gdańsk is a very important sea basin for Poland. Two of three largest ports in Poland are in the Gulf of Gdańsk: the Port of Gdańsk and the Port of Gdynia.

In this study an objective measure of spatial variability of characteristic storm patterns linked with extreme local wave conditions is proposed. That variability measure is constructed based on special selection procedure of extreme storms using long-term significant wave height time series. We define a general spatial storm variability coefficient that may be estimated for various sea basins. In the present work this storm variability coefficient is determined for the Gulf of Gdańsk and its estimation procedure is described in detail.
 
In our study the long-term change in basic statistics of wind wave field over Gulf of Gdańsk is also analysed. This may be referred to as wind wave climate change analysis. It is done by determination of trends in statistical properties of basic wind wave parameters such as significant wave height, mean wave period and wave direction. An attempt is made to relate the trends found in extreme wind wave statistical characteristics to change in associated extreme storm patterns.

In this study probability distributions of significant wave height and mean wave period are determined. The presentation of spatial and temporal variations of the parameters of those probability distributions is yet another way of examining and presenting the spatio-temporal changes of wind wave climate in the Gulf of Gdańsk. Again, an attempt is made to relate those changes to change in characteristic features of meteorological conditions over the Baltic Sea, including storm patterns causing extreme local wave in various regions of the Gulf.

Acknowledgements

Computations performed within this study were conducted in the TASK Computer Centre, Gdańsk with partial funding from eCUDO.pl project No. POPC.02.03.01-00-0062/18-00.

References

Jacob, D., Podzun, R., 1997. Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model REMO. Meteorol. Atmospheric Phys. 119–129. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01025368

Feser, F., Weisse, R., von Storch, H., 2001. Multi-decadal atmospheric modelling for Europe yields multi-purpose data. Eos 82. https://doi.org/10.1029/01EO00176

Cieślikiewicz, W., Paplińska-Swerpel, B., Soares, C.G., 2005. Multi-decadal wind wave modelling over the Baltic Sea, in: Coastal Engineering 2004. Presented at the Proceedings of the 29th International Conference, World Scientific Publishing Company, National Civil Engineering Laboratory, Lisbon, Portugal, pp. 778–790. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789812701916_0062

How to cite: Cieślikiewicz, W. and Cupiał, A.: Spatial variation of extreme storm characteristics over Gulf of Gdańsk and their long-term temporal changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11404, 2022.

EGU22-11491 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

Regional scale evaluation of marine properties as simulated by CMIP6 Earth System models  for contemporary climate conditions 

Momme Butenschön, Jerry Tjiputra, Tomas Lovato, and Jean Negrel

Environmental changes resulting from anthropogenic forcings have significant implications at regional and coastal scales impacting considerably on a variety of key ecosystem services.
While the capacity to understand, quantify and predict these impacts is essential for a consolidated implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, the information available on the environmental changes is often insufficient. Extensive datasets from global projections exist from the CMIP initiatives that provide a wealth of information including crucial estimates of uncertainty and likelihood but are mostly assessed at global or basin level delivering broad-scale information that is often less relevant or prone to large uncertainties at the regional service level. While some regional information exists deriving from individual dynamically downscaled simulations, these are mostly driven by the effort of individual institutions  and hence lack robust estimates of uncertainty and are prone to significant biases deriving from the applied boundary forcings, which are often chosen in an opportunistic manner.

Here we present an attempt to overcome some of these short-comings pursued in the CE2COAST project (https://www.ce2coast.com) providing a systematic assessment of a suite of indicators of multiple ocean pressures from CMIP6 simulations validated at regional level for selected European Seas and the Humbolt Current. The outcome presents valuable information in itself on the spread of model performances in CMIP6  at regional level and is highly relevant as baseline and benchmark for regional downscaling efforts. It highlights that there is no single global model that will fit-for-purpose for downscaling in all regions or for addressing all ocean pressures.

How to cite: Butenschön, M., Tjiputra, J., Lovato, T., and Negrel, J.: Regional scale evaluation of marine properties as simulated by CMIP6 Earth System models  for contemporary climate conditions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11491, 2022.

EGU22-12080 | Presentations | CL3.1.4

Explosive Volcanism Drives Bumper North Sea and Grand Banks Fish Catch, 1600-1850 CE 

Francis Ludlow, John Matthews, and Francesco Pausata

Research that twins data from human (written) archives with data from natural environmental archives represents a rapidly advancing frontier in understanding the ecosystem and linked societal impacts of climatic change. The study of explosive volcanic eruptions, capable of inducing severe short-term climatic anomalies, provides a proving ground in which to develop the methodologies required to combine these disparate sources of evidence, and for showcasing the insights that can be achieved. Volcanic influences on the oceans are becoming increasingly understood, through advances in marine palaeoenvironmental proxies and more sophisticated Earth system modelling. At the same time, growing concern exists over the impacts of present and projected climatic changes on marine ecosystems and important higher trophic level species (Cod, Herring) exploited by commercial fisheries. Here we examine the impact of major explosive volcanism on North Atlantic sea-surface-temperatures (SSTs) using the Norwegian Earth System Model, and on North Sea Herring (1600-1860 CE) and Grand Banks Cod (1675-1827 CE) populations, using rigorously reconstructed catch volumes from contemporary documentation. We show that volcanic eruptions, identifiable through elevated sulfate levels in polar ice cores, impacted ocean temperatures and triggered population booms in both species during the first post-eruption decade. We also show this response to be consistent with expected increases in plankton productivity (a key food source for Cod and Herring) under lower SSTs in the North Sea and higher SSTs in the Grand Banks, respectively. We complement our historical analyses with Cod and Herring population modelling, similarly predicting a population boom in the first decade following a positive ecosystem disturbance (e.g., increased food availability for Cod and Herring, promoting increased survivorship). Lastly, we employ historical Herring price data to examine market responses post-eruption, observing an increase in prices in the first two post-eruption years, thus indicating an increased demand for Herring as a substitute for terrestrial agriculture likely to have been impacted by volcanic climatic anomalies. Our results will help improve fish population projections for the North Atlantic after the next big eruption. This work has been funded by the ERC NorFish (ID 669461) and 4-OCEANS (ID 951649) projects.

How to cite: Ludlow, F., Matthews, J., and Pausata, F.: Explosive Volcanism Drives Bumper North Sea and Grand Banks Fish Catch, 1600-1850 CE, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12080, 2022.

EGU22-13114 | Presentations | CL3.1.4 | Highlight

Recent trends in impacts-relevant climate in the world’s Mediterranean-type climate regions 

Richard Seager, Haibo Liu, Tess Jacobson, Yochanan Kushnir, Isla R. Simpson, Timothy J. Osborn, and Jennifer Nakamura

Mediterranean-type climate regions are heavily dependent on cool season precipitation for water resources and agriculture.  Declines in cool season precipitation have been noted in the Mediterranean, Chile, southwest South Africa and southern Australia while California has also been experiencing recent droughts.  These changes have been attributed with some confidence to rising greenhouse gases, a poleward shift of storm tracks and Hadley Cell expansion.  However, from the perspectives of climate hazards such as fire and heat and ecosystem impacts, spring and summer climate change are also important.  For example, recent work shows that summer burned area in California’s Mediterranean-type climate depends on winter precipitation but also on precipitation, temperature and vapor pressure deficit in spring and early summer.   Here we consider trends over past decades in the impacts-relevant quantities of precipitation, surface temperature, humidity and vapor pressure deficit throughout the seasons for all the world’s five Mediterranean-type climate regions.  Trends from reanalyses are compared to those from CMIP6 models to attribute changes to radiative forcing and natural variability and the connections between change in thermodynamic quantities and the atmospheric circulation are explored.  We show that across the Mediterranean-type climate regions human-driven climate change throughout the year is generating changes in impacts-relevant climate quantities that will create substantial challenges to societies and ecosystems.

How to cite: Seager, R., Liu, H., Jacobson, T., Kushnir, Y., Simpson, I. R., Osborn, T. J., and Nakamura, J.: Recent trends in impacts-relevant climate in the world’s Mediterranean-type climate regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13114, 2022.

EGU22-1532 | Presentations | BG1.8

The YAM seep area – an active carbonate-paved gas seep field at the accretionary margin SW offshore Taiwan 

Yiting Tseng, Miriam Römer, Thomas Pape, Tzu-Ting Chen, Saulwood Lin, Christian Berndt, and Gerhard Bohrmann

The YAM seep area is an active gas seep region among the widespread seep sites offshore south-western Taiwan. The seep area covers a seafloor region of 49,000 m2 at the northern crest of Four-Way Closure Ridge in 1,347 m water depth. During several research cruises (ORI-1163, SO266), shipborne and AUV-related hydro-acoustic investigations revealed that the area of seepage is well documented by high backscatter and a changing micro-bathymetry between rough and flat in the otherwise very flat seabed in the area. 
During expedition SO266, RV Sonne, gas emission sites were observed at the center and eastern flank of the area using ship-borne multi-beam data in the water column. Seawater methane concentrations above the seafloor were collected from the middle west to east of the central transect, revealing concentrations ranging 5.5-18.2 nmol/L with general higher methane concentrations at the rim of the area. Authigenic carbonate samples were collected during gravity coring and MeBo drilling. MeBo drilling was stopped below 5 mbsf because of continuous release of free gas out of the borehole. Carbon isotope measurements of the carbonates showed δ13C values between -38.25 to -52.17 ‰, indicating a mixing of biogenic and thermogenic gas in the methane-derived carbonates. Seismic investigations of the Four-Way Closure Ridge show a well-defined fault below the ridge crest which extends from below the gas hydrate stability zone to the seafloor and acts as a pathway for the methane ascent to the seafloor. 
Seafloor observation using a TV-sled showed a seafloor paved by carbonate rocks consisting of different featured crusts, slabs, and irregular build-ups. Thin-layered crusts were mainly observed at the paved area's rim, while thick-layered slabs and free-standing build-ups were the main features at the elevated region. Chemosynthetic communities, like mussels and clams, mainly were observed within certain carbonate fractures. At the same time, other animals, bacterial mats, and tube worms are presented generally along the whole survey path among the rough seep area. Hydro-acoustic data correlated with visual observation results indicate wide variation through the region of the seep area. Based on our interpretation, the YAM seep area developed over a longer time at the crest of the accretionary ridge, seepage, uplifting of the ridge, tectonic fracturing, and seafloor erosion highly influenced the seafloor manifestation.

How to cite: Tseng, Y., Römer, M., Pape, T., Chen, T.-T., Lin, S., Berndt, C., and Bohrmann, G.: The YAM seep area – an active carbonate-paved gas seep field at the accretionary margin SW offshore Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1532, 2022.

EGU22-3932 | Presentations | BG1.8

Paleo-gas hydrate distribution associated with hill-hole pair formation in the SW Barents Sea 

Claudio Argentino, Kate Alyse Waghorn, Monica Winsborrow, Stefan Bünz, and Giuliana Panieri

Today, gas hydrates are predicted to be stable only in the deepest parts of the Barents Sea, however under past glaciations, low pressure, high temperature subglacial conditions would have been an ideal setting for their formation. Multiple studies have documented the storage of methane beneath the Late Weichselian Barents Sea Ice Sheet, and its subsequent release following deglaciation. Furthermore, it has been hypothesised that localised subglacial gas hydrate formation increases frictional resistance at base of the ice and thus may regulate the flow of overlying ice (Winsborrow et al. 2016). This hypothesis has however, never been tested against sedimentological records of paleo-fluid flow and sediment properties.  

Here we present preliminary results on sediment and pore fluid geochemistry from nine gravity cores collected from Ingøydjupet in the SW Barents Sea. These were collected around a hill-hole pair, a glacial landform indicative of variations in subglacial frictional resistance. One of several suggested formation processes is gas hydrate stiffening of subglacial sediments.  

At present, there is a clear difference in methane fluxes between the areas inside the seafloor hole (high fluxes) and the adjacent hill (low fluxes), matching the distribution of a localized subsurface shallow gas accumulation visible in seismic data. Sediment geochemistry revealed a past episode of enhanced upward methane fluxes only recorded in sediments from the hole, resulted in the shoaling of the sulfate-methane transition and precipitation of methane-derived authigenic carbonates (MDAC) with δ13C= -35 ‰. Although the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of MDACs collected from a sediment core in the hole did not show direct evidence for past gas hydrate destabilization, the reconstructed history of methane fluxes as well as the present-day fluxes and subsurface gas distribution support the hypothesis of a differential distribution of subglacial paleo-gas hydrates across the hill-hole pair, possibly controlled by stratigraphic and structural preconditioning.

This research is part of the Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate (CAGE) supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme grant No. 223259.

Winsborrow, M., Andreassen, K., Hubbard, A., Plaza-Faverola, A., Gudlaugsson, E. and Patton, H., 2016. Regulation of ice stream flow through subglacial formation of gas hydrates. Nat. Geosci., 9(5), 370-374.

How to cite: Argentino, C., Waghorn, K. A., Winsborrow, M., Bünz, S., and Panieri, G.: Paleo-gas hydrate distribution associated with hill-hole pair formation in the SW Barents Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3932, 2022.

EGU22-4505 | Presentations | BG1.8

Slope instabilities and gas hydrates dissociation in the western Black Sea since the last glacial maximum 

Maud Fabre, Lies Loncke, Vincent Riboulot, Nabil Sultan, and Stephan Ker

Marine landslides, which are observed worldwide along continental slopes, constitute the most important processes reworking sedimentary deposits and a major geohazard for marine and coastal domains. They can generate potentially the destruction of marine infrastructures through the formation of turbidity currents and/or hazardous tsunamis. In the Romanian sector of the Black Sea, high amounts of methane are detected in the sediments and at the seafloor through the identification of gas seeps in the water column. They occur on the upper slope, mostly outside the large gas hydrates system occurring in the sediment below -660 m water depth, where methane is trapped in ice cages that act as a buffer zone hampering methane to reach the water column. New geophysical and geotechnical dataset acquired along the Romanian margin reveals that the active seepage zone is associated with numerous slope failures, which incised the continental upper slope. Is there a possible relationship between gas hydrate system and recent slope instabilities? Could intense free gas emissions and/or gas hydrates dissociation have triggered such geohazards? To answer these questions, we present (1) an high resolution mapping and, more important, dating of landslides since the last glacial maximum (35 ka), (2) results of numerical modelling showing the evolution of gas hydrates stability zone inside the sediments since the last 35 ka taking into account the environmental variations that occurred during this time lapse (geothermic gradient, temperature, salinity and sea level).

The models highlight the major effect of environmental changes and particularly the glacial/interglacial cycles and salinity variations on the extent of the gas hydrates. The confrontation of those models with slide extensions, depths and ages allows to better discuss the respective influences of gas hydrates dissociation, stratigraphic overpressure and seepage on slope instability since the last glacial maximum.

How to cite: Fabre, M., Loncke, L., Riboulot, V., Sultan, N., and Ker, S.: Slope instabilities and gas hydrates dissociation in the western Black Sea since the last glacial maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4505, 2022.

EGU22-6546 | Presentations | BG1.8

The potential of Nd isotopes in disentangling fluid sources at hydrocarbon seeps: a recent perspective 

Michał Jakubowicz, Luis Agirrezabala, Steffen Kiel, James Goedert, Jolanta Dopieralska, and Zdzislaw Belka

In recent years, Nd isotopes have seen increasingly common use in studies of hydrocarbon seeps. Given the distinct Nd isotope signature of mafic igneous rocks, particular emphasis in these investigations has been on reconstructing former interactions between the seeping fluids and volcanic materials. The results of our case studies on ancient seeps underlain by mafic volcanic bodies, including Cretaceous seep carbonates of the Outer Carpathians (Czech Republic) and Basque-Cantabrian Basin (Spain), as well as Eocene seeps of the Cascadia convergent margin (Washington) consistently document their significant enrichment in volcanogenic Nd, reflected in their increased Nd isotope ratios (εNd values). The extent of this 143Nd-enrichment varies depending on the geological context of given seeps, most notably the εNd signatures and thickness of the volcanics and overlying sedimentary piles, and the Nd isotope signal of background local pore waters. The highest εNd values are observed in seep carbonates very shallowly underlain by thick mafic volcanics: the Cretaceous seep of the Carpathians and Eocene seeps of Cascadia. For the former, the εNd values are up to 7.5 units higher than the signature of coeval non-seep pore water, whereas for the latter the εNd values are as high as +1.9, close to the highest value ever recorded for seawater. More moderate 143Nd-enrichment typifies the Cretaceous seeps of Spain, for which the volcanic intrusions were emplaced at considerable depths below the seafloor. In such cases, the Nd isotope signature of the fluid-volcanic interactions was partially obscured by subsequent interactions between the fluids and the overlying sediments. Rather than focusing solely on exploring the new geochemical tool, the primary aim of our studies was to address broader questions regarding the tectonic architecture and geological history of the sedimentary basins that host given seep deposits. For the Eocene seeps of Washington, the Nd isotope data served to document interactions between the methane-rich fluids and the volcanic terrane of Siletzia, which underlies the Cascadia forearc; these results placed important stratigraphic and structural constraints on the activation and earliest history of convergence in Cascadia, following Siletzia accretion. For the studied Cretaceous seeps, all hosted by early, sediment-covered rifts, the studies demonstrated that Nd isotopes offer a valuable new tool of deconvolving methane fluxes from different organic matter alteration pathways for the very complex, sedimentary-magmatic systems of incipient rifts. At the same time, these studies emphasized important limitations of Sr isotopes, the system most commonly used to document interactions between the seeping fluids and igneous rocks. Because of the much higher Sr/Nd ratios observed in pore waters than in igneous rocks, the potential of Sr isotopes to record fluid-volcanic interactions is considerably lower than that of Nd isotopes. Thus, broader use of Nd isotopes can assist in identifying potential volcanogenic fluid endmembers for the numerous sedimented rifts for which evidence for magmatic involvement in the fluid expulsion remains equivocal.

This work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, grant No. 2016/23/D/ST10/00444

How to cite: Jakubowicz, M., Agirrezabala, L., Kiel, S., Goedert, J., Dopieralska, J., and Belka, Z.: The potential of Nd isotopes in disentangling fluid sources at hydrocarbon seeps: a recent perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6546, 2022.

EGU22-7382 | Presentations | BG1.8

Methane emissions from abandoned wells? A German case study 

Sebastian F. A. Jordan, Stefan Schlömer, Martin Krüger, and Martin Blumenberg

Methane recently became the focus of attention as the target to slow global warming in the near future. Hence, measures to reduce anthropogenic methane emission are globally discussed and researchers test methods to actively reduce atmospheric methane levels. Complicating advancement in this field, there are still high uncertainties associated with methane sources and sinks. One example is the methane emission from abandoned oil and gas wells. The USA, with about 4,000,000 abandoned wells, is the only country worldwide to include emissions from these wells in their yearly greenhouse gas emissions inventory. Studies estimated that these emissions account for about 1–13% of the U.S. energy sector (Williams et al. 2021). In addition to the USA, only a few countries like Canada, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands collected data on methane emissions from abandoned gas wells. Currently Germany has about 20,000 abandoned wells (formerly productive and dry wells) of different ages, which were generally filled and buried and since 1950s officially have to be plugged, cut, and buried at the end of their lifecycle. It is unclear, whether they are emitting methane or not.

Here, we present our project to fill this knowledge gap for Germany and focus on onshore-abandoned oil & gas wells and their potential to emit methane. Therefore, we will measure soil-atmosphere methane fluxes at several abandoned wells exemplary in four regions of Lower Saxony (Federal State in Northern Germany). In case of methane emission to the atmosphere, we will determine the origin of the methane in soil gas at 1 m depth by isotopic analyses. In addition to these analyses in the direct vicinity of the boreholes, we will investigate the surrounding natural methane situation in groundwater and soil with the help of molecular-geomicrobiological methods and determinations of methane oxidation rates.

 

 

Williams, J. P., Regehr, A., & Kang, M. (2021). Methane Emissions from Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells in Canada and the United States. Environ Sci Technol, 55(1), 563-570. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c04265

How to cite: Jordan, S. F. A., Schlömer, S., Krüger, M., and Blumenberg, M.: Methane emissions from abandoned wells? A German case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7382, 2022.

EGU22-7597 | Presentations | BG1.8

Biomarker evidence for bacterial oxidation of oil-derived hydrocarbons at seeps in the southern Gulf of Mexico 

Nicola Krake, Daniel Birgel, Daniel Smrzka, Jennifer Zwicker, Huiwen Huang, Dong Feng, Gerhard Bohrmann, and Jörn Peckmann

Hydrocarbon seepage is a widespread phenomenon at continental margins around the world. The composition of the ascending fluids can be variable, consisting of short- and long-chain hydrocarbons as well as crude oil. A prominent site of oil seepage is the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The seepage of petroleum is known to have an inhibiting effect on life at seeps, but short- and long-chain hydrocarbons have been shown to be degraded by a range of heterotrophic sulfate-reducing bacteria. Here we present lipid biomarker and carbon isotope data from authigenic carbonates from the Campeche Knolls in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The Campeche carbonates display d13C values in the range of -31.3‰ to -21.9‰, which is in accord with carbon derived from oil-derived hydrocarbons. Interestingly, the Campeche carbonates contain particularly high amounts of bacterial non-isoprenoidal ether lipids (DAGEs) with a wide variety of alkyl chain lengths. The bacterial biomarkers show heavier carbon isotopic signatures than their counterparts at methane seeps. These data allow for the characterization of bacterial oxidation of oil-derived hydrocarbons in modern and, in cases of moderate to good biomarker preservation, ancient environments, permitting the assessment of the influence of different fluid chemistries on the composition of chemosynthesis-based communities at seeps.

How to cite: Krake, N., Birgel, D., Smrzka, D., Zwicker, J., Huang, H., Feng, D., Bohrmann, G., and Peckmann, J.: Biomarker evidence for bacterial oxidation of oil-derived hydrocarbons at seeps in the southern Gulf of Mexico, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7597, 2022.

EGU22-9510 | Presentations | BG1.8

Gas Flares of the Norwegian Arctic - Sources and distribution: A comprehensive mapping using MAREANO multibeam data 

Shyam Chand, Terje Thorsnes, Valérie Bellec, and Lilja Rún Bjarnadóttir

Gas flares from natural sources of hydrocarbon gases escaping through the seafloor to the water column is a phenomenon observed in many parts of the World’s Oceans. The occurrence of these acoustically and visually observed seepages have been recorded by using various sensors onboard different platforms. But the use of multibeam echosounder systems, with the capability of recording the whole water column acoustic backscattering, in recent years have given the opportunity to cover large areas in a short time span along with bathymetric mapping in a cost-effective way. Even though the data sizes are multiple orders of magnitude larger, the use of dedicated software’s and high-performance processing systems have given the opportunity to find acoustic anomalies resulting from the streaming of gas bubbles in water column.

The MAREANO programme which is aimed at mapping habitats through various methods has surveyed large areas of the Norwegian Arctic using multibeam systems. This has resulted in the acquisition of water column acoustic data covering a large area of Arctic Norway over in the last decade. These data have been interpreted and analysed together with other geological and ancillary data from other sensors such as photo/video observations, backscatter data, etc. leading us to relate these anomalies to various structural and geological formations. The database also gave us an opportunity to compare the differences between some of the multibeam systems in capturing these acoustic anomalies. More than approximately 5000 flares of varying magnitude and sizes were detected based on MAREANO water column data, in an area of about 139000 km2. We present the results from these comprehensive surveys and discuss various possibilities that such a database can provide for present and future understanding in the development of Arctic. 

How to cite: Chand, S., Thorsnes, T., Bellec, V., and Bjarnadóttir, L. R.: Gas Flares of the Norwegian Arctic - Sources and distribution: A comprehensive mapping using MAREANO multibeam data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9510, 2022.

EGU22-13090 | Presentations | BG1.8

Significance of micro-and macrofauna from seeps along the Israeli coast (Palmahim Disturbance). 

Valentina Beccari, Daniela Basso, Giuliana Panieri, Ahuva Almogi-Labin, Yizhaq Makovsky, Irka Hajdas, and Silvia Spezzaferri

Cold seeps are important biodiversity hotspots, which support unique communities in the deep sea. The occurrence of living or fossil chemosymbiotic molluscs and low oxygen tolerant benthic foraminifera in the sediments, in association with other seepage related features (e.g. aragonite, authigenic carbonate crusts) are important indications of active or past fluid seepage.
The EU Eurofleets2 SEMSEEP Cruise on the R/V Aegaeo along the Israeli coasts (2016) provided sea floor data and sediments for this study.
Three deep-sea cores from representative environments from the Palmahim Disturbance, (coral-transition area, pockmark area and Gal-C channel area) spanning the last 5000 BP were investigated for pteropods, benthic foraminifera and molluscs and cross-analysed with ROV videos and surface samples.
The coral-transition core (AG16-20-BC1b) shows a sharp increase in low-oxygen benthic foraminifera (representing 100% of the faunal assemblage), no agglutinants, pyritized tubes and euhedral gypsum crystals in its bottom part. This evidence together with the low values of δ13C of C. oolina give indication that a short-lived advective fluid flux occurred approximatively at 3500 BP. Only few small individuals of the chemosymbiotic bivalve Isorropodon perplexum Sturany, 1896 have been observed above this interval, showing that the chemosynthetic environment was not conducive for the development of a full chemosymbiotic benthic community.
Similarly, evidences of methane emission have been observed in the pockmark core (AG16-23-BC2). Pteropods molds, composed by aragonite needles and High-Mg calcite crystals are present at the base of the core. Aragonite precipitates during advective emissions, when the Sulfate Methane Transition Zone (SMTZ) is located cm to dm below the seafloor, therefore the presence of pteropod molds recrystallized in aragonite is an important evidence that an advective emission occurred. However, these molds co-occur with authigenic carbonate crusts, shrimp claws, low-oxygen tolerant benthic foraminifera and a mature association of chemosymbiotic molluscs (including vesicomyids, lucinids, mytilids and thyasirids). Typically, these organisms are sustained by a moderate, diffusive, pervasive and persistent fluid flow. Therefore, we suggest that this environment was dynamic and supporting advective and diffusive emissions that were able to sustain recruitment and development of mature chemosymbiotic faunal assemblage. 

This research was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) project Ref. 200021_175587, samples were collected during the EUROFLEETS2 SEMSEEP cruise that was funded by the European Union FP7 Programme under grant agreement n° 312762.

How to cite: Beccari, V., Basso, D., Panieri, G., Almogi-Labin, A., Makovsky, Y., Hajdas, I., and Spezzaferri, S.: Significance of micro-and macrofauna from seeps along the Israeli coast (Palmahim Disturbance)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13090, 2022.

EGU22-13267 | Presentations | BG1.8

Using ROV video photogrammetry to reconstruct seafloor landforms of Arctic cold seep environments 

Luca Fallati, Alessandra Savini, Claudio Argentino, Stefan Bünz, and Giuliana Panieri

Cold seeps are locations on the seafloor where reduced compounds from subsurface hydrocarbon reserves enrich sediment fluids or emanate freely as gas from the seabed. Associated with these spots, numerous underwater landscapes and various chemosynthetic communities were uncovered during the last decades of seafloor exploration. 

Arctic cold seeps offshore Svalbard were explored using Ægir6000, a work-class ROV (Remotely Operated Vehicle) equipped with three HD video cameras that filmed the ocean floor at different angles. The ROV, moving at a constant speed of 1 knot, followed predefined routes to guarantee optimal lateral overlap between adjacent transects. From the videos of the nadiral camera, a photogram every two seconds was automatically extracted. Then, the images were processed in Agisoft Metashape® following a well-established photogrammetry workflow. As final outputs, we obtained 3D mesh, orthomosaics and DTMs at ultra-high-resolution (mm) allowing us to obtain detailed morphometric maps.

These data allowed us to reconstruct accurate georeferenced 3D models representing a variety of small-scale (sub-cm) seabed features and provide essential information for a better understanding of the spatial pattern associated with submarine biogeochemical and physical processes at the seafloor. Moreover, the realized models present the locations where push corers were collected. This correspondence will allow us to integrate fine-scale habitat mapping and pore fluid datasets to quantify the areal methane fluxes.

This work was supported by the Research Council of Norway, for AKMA - Advancing Knowledge on Methane in the Arctic, project number 287869.

Keywords: Submarine geomorphology, ROV, Underwater 3D Photogrammetry, optical 3D models, Cold Seeps, Arctic Ocean

How to cite: Fallati, L., Savini, A., Argentino, C., Bünz, S., and Panieri, G.: Using ROV video photogrammetry to reconstruct seafloor landforms of Arctic cold seep environments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13267, 2022.

EGU22-769 | Presentations | GM10.2 | Highlight

Sediment supply affects uncertainties and memory in alpine geomorphic systems 

Jacob Hirschberg, Brian W. McArdell, Georgina L. Bennett, and Peter Molnar

Geomorphic systems are affected by climate forcing and sediment supply. Due to non-linear relationships of forcings and sediment mobilization, it is debated whether environmental signals are preserved in such systems, or if they are rather dampened or shredded in the sediment output. Tracing the cause and effect in such systems is commonly impossible to do from observations alone. Therefore, numerical models are interesting to study geomorphic system behavior. We use a modeling chain consisting of the SedCas sediment cascade model (Bennett et al., 2014; Hirschberg et al., 2021) and the AWE-GEN stochastic weather generator (Fatichi et al., 2011), which has been calibrated for a debris-flow catchment in the Swiss Alps, the Illgraben, and used for climate change impact assessment (Hirschberg et al., 2021). Here we use this modeling setup to study the long-term behavior of such a system under consideration of different mean erosion rates and sediment production mechanisms. This numerical experiment is unique because we conducted simulations at high temporal resolution (hourly) while also spanning geological time scales (10k years).

We show that the analysis of short sediment records is characterized by high uncertainties and that especially supply-limited systems are at risk to have underestimated mean sediment. This is in concert with field observations on short- and long-term erosion rates from other basins, and can be attributed to transient hillslope sediment supply to the channel. Furthermore, we demonstrate how large hillslope landslides, or the absence of sediment supply, introduce long-term memory effects which can be quantified in the sediment yield. This long-term memory increases uncertainty and reduces interannual variability in annual sediment yields. Interestingly, details of the actual timing of sediment supply events are shredded and have no discernible impact on sediment yields at the outlet. The study highlights the need of characterizing variability in erosional events with regard to their stochastic nature. Furthermore, these results will corroborate the analysis of erosion rates, support decision making and decrease the risk of misinterpretation both in natural hazard and climate change impact assessment, especially if they are based on short records.

 

REFERENCES

Bennett, G. L., P. Molnar, B. W. McArdell, and P. Burlando (2014), A probabilistic sediment cascade model of sediment transfer in the Illgraben, Water Resour. Res., 50, 1225– 1244, doi:10.1002/2013WR013806.

Fatichi, S., Ivanov, V. Y., & Caporali, E. (2011). Simulation of future climate scenarios with a weather generator. Advances in Water Resources, 34(4), 448-467.

Hirschberg, J., Fatichi, S., Bennett, G. L., McArdell, B. W., Peleg, N., Lane, S. N., et al. (2021). Climate change impacts on sediment yield and debris- flow activity in an Alpine catchment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 126, e2020JF005739. https:// doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005739

How to cite: Hirschberg, J., McArdell, B. W., Bennett, G. L., and Molnar, P.: Sediment supply affects uncertainties and memory in alpine geomorphic systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-769, 2022.

High-elevation mountainous regions are experiencing an increase in the frequency of mass-wasting processes related to climate-change. Understanding the interplay between the climatic triggers (temperature and precipitation, in particular) and their effects on the dynamics of surface processes is crucial for developing reliable predictive models and for quantifying vulnerability and risk associated with these hazards.

In this work, we exploit a consolidated statistical-based approach in which triggering conditions are identified as climatic anomalies (i.e., non-exceedance probability below/above the 10th/90th percentile) in temperature and precipitation values at multiple temporal scales occurred in the lead-up of the events triggering. Specifically, we integrate the traditionally used in-situ information from daily weather stations with: (a) high-resolution (0.1°, 30-min) precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals from GPM (IMERG) and (b) daily gridded temperature observations from ENSEMBLES OBServation (E-OBS). We investigate the use of these freely available gridded climatological datasets as an integration/surrogate for in-situ measurements.

Our analysis is based on a database of 358 geomorphic hazards occurred across the Italian Alps in the period 2000-2015, including landslides, rockfalls and debris flows. Preliminary results indicate that IMERG could significantly improve precipitation information by providing estimates directly on the initiation zones, which is particularly relevant in case of hazards triggered by small-scale convective storms. This advantage is evident and in particular for the case of debris flows: IMERG allows to detect precipitation in numerous cases (~60%) for which in-situ data showed no precipitation; in ~19% of these, climatic anomalies (exceedance of the 90th percentile) are detected.

Further results on the role of sub-daily precipitation processes, particularly relevant for hazards triggered by convective rainfall, such as debris and mud flows, and on the use of temperature data from E-OBS, as being evaluated and will be presented.

How to cite: Paranunzio, R. and Marra, F.: Climate anomalies and geomorphic hazards in high-mountain regions in the Alps: new perspectives from the integrated use of observations and satellite-based products, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1717, 2022.

EGU22-1854 | Presentations | GM10.2

A warming-induced rainfall heterogeneity accelerates landscape evolution 

Nadav Peleg, Jorge Alberto Ramirez, Francesco Marra, Chris Skinner, Simone Fatichi, and Peter Molnar

The hydro-morphological response of a catchment is highly dependent on rainfall properties, including rainfall intensity, storm duration and frequency, and the timing of those events. Furthermore, rainfall spatial variability impacts streamflow, erosion, and sediment transport, and is explored primarily in the context of heavy rainfall triggering floods and rapid morphological changes on hillslopes and in channels. In order to examine the potential effects of warming on hydro-morphological responses, we first examined how changes in air temperature are affecting the spatial structure of rainfall. We observed that heterogeneity increases as temperatures rise. Then, we investigated the sensitivity of fast hydro-morphological responses to increasing temperatures and rainfall heterogeneity scenarios by simulating an extreme rainfall event that occurred in August 2005 in the Kleine Emme stream in Switzerland. The results show that rainfall heterogeneity has a greater impact on erosion processes than simply intensifying high rainfall intensities. We also looked at how changes in rainfall patterns affect landscape evolution over hundreds of years at the catchment scale. Multiple realizations of hourly rainfall fields, each with a different spatial distribution but identical in all other respects, were simulated using a stochastic weather generator, and the impact of the storm heterogeneity on catchment morphology was assessed using a landscape evolution model (CAESAR-Lisflood). We found that erosion and deposition rates increased and net erosion and deposition areas changed (increased and decreased, respectively) when the rain became less uniform in space. Increasing temperatures and rainfall heterogeneity resulted in longer, deeper, and more branched gullies. The results of these studies indicate that heterogeneity in rainfall spatial patterns accelerates landscape development even when rainfall volumes and temporal structures are identical.

How to cite: Peleg, N., Ramirez, J. A., Marra, F., Skinner, C., Fatichi, S., and Molnar, P.: A warming-induced rainfall heterogeneity accelerates landscape evolution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1854, 2022.

EGU22-4061 | Presentations | GM10.2

The signature of extreme rainstorms properties on cliff morphology in arid areas 

Yuval Shmilovitz, Francesco Marra, Yehouda Enzel, Efrat Morin, Moshe Armon, Ari Matmon, Amit Mushkin, Yoav Levi, Pavel Khain, and Itai Haviv

Climatic impact on landscape morphology was previously demonstrated under pronounced gradients in average climatic properties such as mean annual precipitation or temperature. However, in arid areas, where both meteorological observations and rainfall measurements are scarce and the latter is meager, short-term and highly variable in space and time, the determination of meaningful “average climatic” conditions and their variability is challenging. Although it is generally acknowledged that surface processes in arid landscapes should be effected by short-duration rainfall intensities and their extremes, the topographic sensitivity to storm-scale properties were rarely quantified. Here, we attempted to bridge this gap by documenting systematic precipitation variations along a 40 km arid escarpment (Ramon crater) in the central Negev desert (Israel) and their associated topographic signature.

We used 0.5 m pixel-1 LiDAR-derived topographic data coupled with field measurements to characterize the morphology of cliffs and slopes along the entire Ramon crater. Sub-hourly rainfall intensities were characterized using an 8-year record of high-resolution, convection-permitting, numerical weather model prediction (NWP). Frequency analyses of rainfall intensity and its spatial variation were conducted using a novel statistical method and used to determine runoff and sediment transport along sub-cliff slopes, through grid-based hydrological simulations of synthetic rainstorms with different frequencies.

Our results indicate that due to a pronounced decreasing gradient in the number of rain storms per year, the mean annual rainfall decreases from ~100 mm in the southwest (SW) cliff segment to ~40 mm in the northeast (NE) segment. However, in the drier NE cliff segment, extreme rainfall intensities such as the ones occurring during a storm with a 100-year return period are higher. Topographic cliff gradients and the percentage of exposed bedrock over the cliffs increase toward the drier NE cliff section. Sub-cliff slopes in the NE are systematically straighter, shorter, and associated with a smaller clast sizes relative to the wetter (SW) part of the escarpment. Hydrological simulations reveal that under extreme storms, sediment is mobilized by sheetwash on the NE slopes but is less mobile on the wetter SW slopes. In addition, incised gullies and disconnected talus-flatirons are more frequent in the NE and correlate with the higher erosion efficiency of extreme rainstorms in this zone. Our results indicate that significant morphologic differences can be imprinted in arid landforms due to spatial gradients in the properties of extreme rainstorms.  

How to cite: Shmilovitz, Y., Marra, F., Enzel, Y., Morin, E., Armon, M., Matmon, A., Mushkin, A., Levi, Y., Khain, P., and Haviv, I.: The signature of extreme rainstorms properties on cliff morphology in arid areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4061, 2022.

EGU22-5929 | Presentations | GM10.2 | Highlight

CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Model Experiment): a versatile geo-hydrological model for climatic scenario and extreme event simulation at basin scale 

Andrea Abbate, Laura Longoni, Monica Papini, Leonardo Mancusi, and Antonella Frigerio

In this abstract is described the new model concept called CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Model Experiment). This model represents an extended version of the classical spatially distributed rainfall-runoff models. The main novelties are related to:

  • the possibility to have a direct integration with climatic scenario outputs, such as rainfall and temperature field data from NETCDF file format,
  • the physical description of some geo-hydrological hazards strongly related to rainfalls such as shallow landslide, debris flow, watershed erosion and solid transport,
  • the possibility to interact with other hydraulic/landslide models applied through the BMI (Basic Model Interface) approach at finer scale.

The CRHyME model is intended as a part of a hydrological modelling chain. The aim is to try to interpret the effect of future climate evolution on the local territory, giving a physical-based instrument to fill the gap between broader climatic scale and watershed scale. CRHyME model has been written in PYTHON language, using the PCRaster libraries. It has been inspired by the PCR-GLOWB2 model that was implemented at a global scale to study climate change effects on water resource availability. In this sense, the CRHyME model has been completely rewritten to work at a higher spatial resolution to let the assessment of geo-hydrological hazards using the available worldwide databases about morphology, land coverage, soil composition and hydrogeological properties.

The versatility of the CRHyME model permits to set also different timesteps of simulations, reproducing for example extreme rainfall events described with sub-hourly data. It is possible to set the model to reproduce watershed behaviour under critical rainfall using the information stored in local IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves making CRHyME also suitable for the risks now-casting at the Civil Protection level.

CRHyME model is currently under development. Remarkable results have been obtained for the study case of the Valtellina catchment in the Alpine region (northern Lombardy, Italy) and three Apennine’s catchments (Emilia region, Italy). After calibration and validation for past occurred events, CRHyME was applied considering three different climatic models from the EUROCORDEX program. According to IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) indications, the reference period 1986-2005 and the future scenario 2006-2075 under RCP 8.5 were simulated. Several variables were investigated such as maximum daily precipitation, the mean temperature, the maximum daily water discharges, the annual sediment yield, the maximum daily number of triggered shallow landslide and debris flow movements. Statistical test on mean and variance was applied to data series to highlight possible future tendencies in comparison to the reference period. The results have shown a general intensity increase of the geo-hydrological cycle, especially across the Alpine region. Similar results were also assessed from the analysis of the outliers of the sample distributions. This evidence represents a confirmation of the studies carried out by IPCC scientists in respect to the latest updated report in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

How to cite: Abbate, A., Longoni, L., Papini, M., Mancusi, L., and Frigerio, A.: CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Model Experiment): a versatile geo-hydrological model for climatic scenario and extreme event simulation at basin scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5929, 2022.

CL3.2 – Climate and Society

EGU22-912 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Investigating the influence of climate on Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) behaviour 

Sarah Berk, Clare Goodess, and Manoj Joshi

As centres of human activity, cities contain over half the world’s population and this proportion is projected to increase to around 70 percent in 2050. The urban heat island (UHI) is a well observed phenomenon, where temperature in a city is warmer than the surrounding rural area.

The UHI is influenced by both the climate and the morphology of the city. Focusing on cities in the tropics and subtropics and those with a population of less than 1 million, this research explores the relationship between the UHI effect and climate. Cities in different climate zones are selected based on similar characteristics such as population, variation of elevation within the city and surrounding area, and proximity to water bodies. Satellite data, with global coverage, is used to quantify the SUHI of the chosen cities. Peak SUHI was calculated using the Gaussian Surface Approximation methodology and the mean SUHI defined as the mean land surface temperature of urban pixels minus the mean of the surrounding rural area.  

Statistical techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regression and Gaussian Process Regression are used to find relationships between SUHI and variables such as vegetation greenness (EVI), evaporative fraction, precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and city area. 

How to cite: Berk, S., Goodess, C., and Joshi, M.: Investigating the influence of climate on Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) behaviour, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-912, 2022.

EGU22-971 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

FAIRNESS Project - FAIR NEtwork of micrometeorological measurements 

Dragan Milošević, Branislava Lalić, Stevan Savić, Benjamin Bechtel, Mark Roantree, and Simone Orlandini

Reliable and sufficient knowledge on environmental conditions delivered from micrometeorological and microclimatological data plays a central role in assessing and modelling trends and effects of climate change and adverse weather on the environment. Enormous efforts have already been made to centralise data from ground-based and satellite measurements and to make them available for public use. However, beyond specific initiatives, they are still missing one very important component – micrometeorological data, i.e. data addressing meteorological conditions of microenvironment that is open and available for various application potentials and user groups.

Micrometeorological data are usually collected as part of scientific projects and observational networks developed for different purposes, but they often “languish” in reports and institutional data storages. To address this shortfall, FAIRNESS Cost Action will establish micrometeorological knowledge share platform (Micromet_KSP) to communicate: a) compiled inventory of available and quality proven micrometeorological in situ data sets on the European level and beyond, b) measurement and data management recommendations designed to meet FAIR principles and avoid temporal and spatial gaps, c) examples of rural and urban FAIR data sets and d) Q&A exchanged between Action members, stakeholders, specialised user groups and general public.

FAIRNESS targets are, primarily, networks of Automated Weather Stations installed in urban, sub-urban and rural areas which are in charge of dedicated projects, specialised agencies, regional or national government offices for specific applications in the sectors of urban-, forest-, and environmental meteorology and agrometeorology. Addressing identified challenges requires an effective transboundary network of researchers, stakeholders, and civil society to identify and fill knowledge gaps, standardize, optimize, and promote new environmental-tailored measurement and control procedures, enhance research effectiveness and improve dissemination.

FAIRNESS consortium includes 65 partners from 28 countries in Europe, Asia, Australia, and North America, and invites interested stakeholders and/or data contributors to join the project during its realization (2021-2025).

How to cite: Milošević, D., Lalić, B., Savić, S., Bechtel, B., Roantree, M., and Orlandini, S.: FAIRNESS Project - FAIR NEtwork of micrometeorological measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-971, 2022.

EGU22-1513 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Toward a Local Climate Zone-based drag and mixing length parametrization for the urban environment 

Tim Nagel, Robert Schoetter, Victor Bourgin, Valéry Masson, and Emma Onofri

To prepare future urban climate modelling and numerical weather prediction at the hectometer scale in cities with heterogeneous morphology and high-rise buildings, urban climate models have to be coupled at multiple levels with atmospheric models. Vertical profiles of the building drag coefficient and the urban mixing length need to be specified to parametrize the effect of the buildings on the flow. Building-resolving micro-scale simulations can be employed to derive these quantities.

In the present contribution, micro-scale large-eddy simulations of eleven Local Climate Zone (LCZ) based urban morphologies with various building plan and frontal density are used to provide velocity, sectional drag coefficient and mixing length reference vertical profiles for the urban environment. The micro-scale simulations, which are of 1-m resolution in both horizontal and vertical directions, are performed with the MesoNH meteorological research model. This model represents explicitly the obstacles with the Immersed Boundary Method and accounts for the impact of the large-scale turbulence structures on the urban canopy thanks to dynamical downscaling and embedded numerical domains using the grid nesting method. The micro-scale results show that, contrary to traditional assumptions, the velocity profile is generally not exponential and the mixing length is not constant in the urban canopy. This is in agreement with more recent research. The results also show that the building frontal density seems to be a key parameter for the shape of the velocity profile, within and directly above the urban canopy.

The sectional drag and mixing length profiles are then used to propose a new LCZ-based parametrization for the wind dynamics in the urban environment when using the Meso-NH model at the hectometer scale. The results show that the proposed parametrization is more efficient than the current one, consisting in a constant drag coefficient and no specific modification of the turbulent mixing length scale in the urban environment. These results open new perspectives to better parametrize the dynamic effects of real urban areas at the hectometer scale.

How to cite: Nagel, T., Schoetter, R., Bourgin, V., Masson, V., and Onofri, E.: Toward a Local Climate Zone-based drag and mixing length parametrization for the urban environment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1513, 2022.

Urban decision makers rely on evidence-based climate information tailored to their needs to adequately adapt and prepare for future climate change impacts. Regional climate models, with grid sizes between 50-10 km, are a useful outset to understand potential future climate change impacts in urban regions. The recently developed convection-permitting models have grid sizes less than 5 km, and better resolve smaller scale atmospheric processes such as convection, and its interactions with the land surface, by also better representing complex terrain, for instance cities. This study investigates how the convection-permitting resolution affects the simulation of climate change conditions in the urban-rural context, demonstrated through three impact cases: influenza spread and survival; ragweed pollen dispersion, and in-door mold growth. Simulations by the regional climate model REMO are analyzed for the near future (2041-2050) under emission scenario RCP8.5. Taking the Berlin region as a testbed, the findings show that the change signal reverses for the 3 km compared to the 12.5 km grid resolution for the impact cases pollen, and mold, which indicates an added value. More pollen days are projected in Berlin under future climate conditions. Less mold days can be expected, but longer consecutive periods, under future climate conditions. For influenza, the convection-permitting resolution intensifies the decrease of influenza days, nevertheless longer periods of consecutive influenza days are found under near-term climate change. The results show the potential of convection-permitting simulations to generate improved information about climate change impacts for urban regions to support decision makers, and in order to build the resilient cities of tomorrow. 

 

How to cite: Langendijk, G., Rechid, D., and Jacob, D.: Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1517, 2022.

EGU22-1802 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Urban heat island estimation from crowdsensing thermometers embedded in personal cars 

Eva Marques, Valery Masson, Philippe Naveau, Olivier Mestre, Vincent Dubreuil, and Yves Richard

An ever-growing portion of population lives in urban areas. Cities are expanding quickly and consequently, the urban heat island effect has become a major health concern to maintain city dwellers’ thermal comfort. For this reason, city planners want to access urban meteorological databases in local areas where specific attention is needed. With the growth of connected devices, it is possible to collect unusual but massive temperature measurements from people’s activities. In this article, we study temperatures measured by thermometers embedded in everyday personal cars. To assess the quality of such opportunistic data, we first detect factors deteriorating the measurement. After pre-processing, the measurement error is then estimated thanks to two weather station networks providing a local-scale reference through Dijon and Rennes cities, France. The overall aggregation of private car temperature measurements allows to estimate very precisely the urban heat island at a 200m resolution. We detect the cooling effect of parks in Rennes and Paris urban areas. In Barcelona and Dijon, we observe the impact of regional environments and the orographic effect on the urban heat island. With our method, similar maps can be made accessible to every interested city in western Europe to target critical areas and support urban planning decisions.

How to cite: Marques, E., Masson, V., Naveau, P., Mestre, O., Dubreuil, V., and Richard, Y.: Urban heat island estimation from crowdsensing thermometers embedded in personal cars, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1802, 2022.

EGU22-2105 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Diurnal and Seasonal Patterns of Urban Dry Islands Quantified with a Global Dataset 

Naika Meili, Athanasios Paschalis, Gabriele Manoli, and Simone Fatichi

Research quantifying urban-rural differences in humidity, the so called urban dry or moisture islands (UDIs, UMIs), has been mostly confined to case-studies of single cities or regions. An analysis of the typical diurnal and seasonal patterns of UDIs at larger scale is still missing even though changes in humidity can impact human well-being, building energy consumption, and urban ecology. In this study, we use a large data set (1089 stations) of globally distributed near surface air temperature and humidity measurements to quantify the typical diurnal and seasonal patterns of UDIs, which developed due to rapid urbanization in many parts of the world, using a time for space substitution. We distinguish between “relative” and “absolute” UDIs quantified as the urban-rural difference in relative and actual humidity measurements, respectively, to account for differences in their diurnal and seasonal patterns.

We find that absolute UDI is largest during daytime with the highest humidity decrease in the late afternoon hours, while relative UDI is generally largest at night. Peak relative humidity decrease occurs during the late evening hours with magnitudes of around -10 to -11% between 20-00 local time in summer. Both relative and absolute UDI are largest during the warm season. Separating the contribution of actual humidity decrease and change in temperature to the formation of relative UDI, we find that relative UDI is mostly caused by absolute UDI during daytime and by temperature, i.e., urban heat island (UHI), during nighttime. The quantification of UDIs, as presented here, is crucial for subsequent impact analyses of urbanization on outdoor thermal comfort, urban ecology, and building energy consumption.

How to cite: Meili, N., Paschalis, A., Manoli, G., and Fatichi, S.: Diurnal and Seasonal Patterns of Urban Dry Islands Quantified with a Global Dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2105, 2022.

EGU22-2250 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

The impact of urban areas on various meteorological variables: The “urban meteorology island” 

Jan Karlický, Peter Huszár, Michal Belda, and Tomáš Halenka

The urban heat island (UHI) is well-known phenomenon, however, also other meteorological field are significantly affected by urban environment. The WRF and RegCM regional climate models with various setting were used to determine overall weather and climate alteration due to urban surfaces. Simulations were run on 9 km domain covering the center of Europe and time area of years 2015 and 2016. Validation of results was performed by E-OBS, ECAD and MODIS data. The urban effects were studied for 10 chosen big cities across domain, nearly all studied variables manifest statistically significant differences in urban areas. Cloud cover is increased in cities mainly in summer afternoons, together with sub-grid-scale precipitation. Specific humidity is decreased during day-time in summer and also in winter. In view of differences between models, the urban effects are more pronounced in WRF than in RegCM model. Finally, as a generalization of UHI and similar phenomena defined already, we can define urban meteorology island (UMI) as a single phenomenon covering all specific features as UHI as components of UMI.

How to cite: Karlický, J., Huszár, P., Belda, M., and Halenka, T.: The impact of urban areas on various meteorological variables: The “urban meteorology island”, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2250, 2022.

EGU22-2488 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Copernicus for Urban Resilience in Europe: Intermediate results from the CURE project 

Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Zina Mitraka, Mattia Marconcini, Tomas Soukup, Mario Dohr, David Ludlow, Birgitte Holt Andersen, Dirk Lauwaet, Christian Feigenwinter, Alessandra Gandini, and Jürgen Kropp

A major challenge for the urban community is the exploitation of Earth Observation (EO) in dealing with the multidimensional nature of urban sustainability towards enhancing urban resilience, particularly in the face of climate change. Here, we present how the H2020 funded project CURE (Copernicus for Urban Resilience in Europe) synergistically exploits Copernicus Core Services, to develop cross-cutting applications for urban resilience. CURE provides the urban planning community with spatially disaggregated environmental information at local scale, as well as a proof-of-concept that urban planning and management activities towards enhancing the resilience of cities can be supported by four Copernicus Core Services, namely, the Land Monitoring Service (CLMS), the Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS), the Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Emergency Service (EMS).

CURE improved analysis methods for addressing specific dimensions of urban resilience, enabling its integration into operational services in the future, related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, healthy cities and social environments and energy and economy. Thus, CURE has the potential to reveal novel scientific insights on the exploitation of Copernicus for urban resilience and policy development, thereby generating new EO opportunities. CURE is built on Data and Information Access Services (DIAS), as s system integrating these cross-cutting applications, capable of supporting downstream services across Europe, addressing also its economic feasibility. CURE has resulted in information capacity presenting current state of cities against drivers (land use, green areas, energy use etc.) and pressures (pollution, emissions, floods, etc.) and help in assessing their overall impact (quality of life, health, economic damage, etc.) that will enable cities to prepare an evidence and knowledge based response (i.e., better plans, local actions and new policies).

The contribution of CURE mainly concerns: online platform for combining Core Services to support urban resilience planning; uniform data for large samples of urban areas both within region and across regions in Europe; consistent measurements across European cities, including synergies between Copernicus core products and third-party data; different approaches and models for better information on urban from and function at different spatial and temporal scales; and assimilation of users’ knowledge with technical data and benchmarking; fostering of innovation. The innovation potential of CURE lies on the exploitation of the Copernicus offer in the domain of urban resilience, by developing cross-cutting applications combining products from CLMS, CAMS, C3S and EMS with third-party data, as well as by developing a system for integrating these applications, enabling its incorporation into operational applications and downstream services in the future.

More information on CURE evolution at: http://cure-copernicus.eu

How to cite: Chrysoulakis, N., Mitraka, Z., Marconcini, M., Soukup, T., Dohr, M., Ludlow, D., Holt Andersen, B., Lauwaet, D., Feigenwinter, C., Gandini, A., and Kropp, J.: Copernicus for Urban Resilience in Europe: Intermediate results from the CURE project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2488, 2022.

EGU22-2679 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Humidity regime in the world's mega cities 

Judi (Yehudit) Lax, Hadas Saaroni, and Colin Price

As urbanization continues to grow, it is expected that by 2050, the currently 55% of the world population living in urban areas will reach 68% (UN, 2016). The 'Urban Heat Island' is the most studied phenomenon in urban areas, but changes are expected also in the atmospheric humidity regime (Ziv & Saaroni, 2011). Generally, an urban dry island has been noted in previous studies (Luo & Lau, 2019).

Following the authors' findings in the field of hygroelectricity (Lax, Price & Saaroni, 2020)– energy extracted from isolated metals exposed to high relative humidity (RH) conditions – as spontaneous voltage accumulated on isolated metals starting from RH > 60%, investigation of suitable regions with high RH and its durations is needed. Such analysis is also applicative for numerous aspects, related to negative impacts caused by high RH, i.e., thermal comfort & health aspects, when associated with high temperatures, allergies related to dust mites & mold, fungi & bacteria survival, corrosion development, etc. However, high RH has advantages as well, moist-reliant renewable energies and moist harvesting for drinking water (Shen et. al., 2020). This is especially relevant in a warming world due to climate change.

Our study explored the climatology of the world's largest 33 mega-cities; High RH distribution & duration spells are analyzed on a seasonal & annual scales, based on a minimum of 10-years hourly data. Moreover, for cities with several stations, a spatial comparison is performed. The atmospheric variables included are not only the cities' RH, but also the specific humidity, dry and wet bulb temperatures and heat load. Cities are ranked in terms of their potential contribution to the above-mentioned technologies on the one hand and to their disadvantages in terms of human comfort on the other. Finally, we propose a tool to determine the potential of these cities for moist-reliant technologies.

How to cite: Lax, J. (., Saaroni, H., and Price, C.: Humidity regime in the world's mega cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2679, 2022.

EGU22-3188 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

The difference between building anthropogenic heat flux and building energy consumption 

Yiqing Liu, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond

Buildings are a major source of anthropogenic heat emissions, impacting energy use and human health in cities. The difference between building energy consumption and building anthropogenic heat emission magnitudes and time lag and are poorly quantified. Energy consumption (QEC) is a widely used proxy for the anthropogenic heat from buildings (QF,B). Here we revisit the latter’s definition. If QF,B is the heat emission to the atmosphere due to human activities within buildings, we can derive it from the changes in energy balance fluxes between occupied and unoccupied buildings. Our derivation shows the difference between QECand QF,B is attributable to a change in the storage heat flux induced by human activities (ΔSo-uo). Using building energy simulation (EnergyPlus) we calculate the energy balance fluxes for an isolated building with different occupancy states. The non-negligible differences in diurnal patterns between QF,B and QECcaused by thermal storage. With this definition negative QF,B can occur as human activities reduce heat emission from buildings but are associated with a larger storage heat flux. Building operations (e.g., open windows, use of HVAC system) modify the QF,B by affecting not only QEC but also the ΔSo-uo diurnal profile. This study demonstrates the difference between QF,B and QEC and the proposed new method for estimating QF,B could provide data for future parameterization of both anthropogenic heat and storage heat fluxes from buildings.

How to cite: Liu, Y., Luo, Z., and Grimmond, S.: The difference between building anthropogenic heat flux and building energy consumption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3188, 2022.

EGU22-3249 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Investigating the impact of urban heat islands on long-term climatic observations in Sweden 

Mahmoud Suliman and Mattias Winterdahl

Urban land cover (ULC) has been steadily expanding in Sweden over the last century. This expansion could potentially include areas in the vicinity of meteorological stations, and may, in turn, lead to increased urban heat island effects in the areas surrounding them. As observations form the basis of many climate studies, it is then important to investigate the potential influence of urban heat island effects on long-term trends in climatic observations. For the purpose of quantifying the change in ULC around meteorological stations, we developed a semi-supervised methodology that classifies the land cover based on single-band orthophotos, and then calculates the change in ULC around the stations. Using this methodology, we estimated the change in land cover in a 100 m radius around 48 Swedish meteorological stations during the period 1960-2019. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test, together with the Theil-Sen estimator and linear regression were applied on the stations’ long-term temperature and precipitation data in order to determine systematic differences in climatic trends between stations with varying degrees of ULC increase, and to explore the possible influence of urban heat islands. Initial results associate large increases in ULC with higher positive Theil-Sen estimator values for temperature observations, and negative linear regression slopes in precipitation observations, respectively (p < 0.001). Thus, the temperature increase has been more pronounced at meteorological stations experiencing substantial ULC increase. Conversely, these stations showed decreasing trends in precipitation. Overall, our results show a correlation between the change in ULC around climatic stations and their long-term trends in climatic observations, and suggest possible influences of urban heat island effects on observed climate data in Sweden.

How to cite: Suliman, M. and Winterdahl, M.: Investigating the impact of urban heat islands on long-term climatic observations in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3249, 2022.

Urban morphological attributes and surface properties can largely influence near-surface air temperatures. Unpacking such morpho-thermal relationships are of particular importance in hot urban desert (HUDs) cities given the already extreme thermal bioclimatic dynamics, urban-induced heating with rapid urbanization processes, and vulnerability of residents. Satellite-derived investigations may underestimate critical system dynamics of urban thermal stimuli found within sub-diurnal phenomena and sub-meter classifications. High resolution spatiotemporal measurements are therefore required to objectively assess latent magnitudes of heat mitigation and amelioration strategies. This study utilized the natural heterogeneity of morphometric predictors with fixed ground-based measurements in a representative neighborhood unit typology within Kuwait’s residential landscape to build a composite dataset of sub-hourly air temperature measurements with sub-meter morphological attributes. The presentation will share initial findings of the study and preliminary analysis of the drivers of heating/cooling rate’s association to defined morphological factors.

How to cite: AlKhaled, S.: Urban Morphometrics and Microclimate Responses in a Typical Residential Neighborhood of a Hot Urban Desert City, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3355, 2022.

Informal settlements in developing countries have distinct socio-ecological, ethnocultural, and economic patterns. People spend a significant amount of time in these outdoor spaces and modify them with lightweight shade materials (encroachments) according to their needs. We seek to investigate how accurately the 3 Dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software ENVI-met models Relative Humidity (RH) in the streets of such heterogeneous urban forms in tropical Mumbai and Kolkata in India. Three neighborhoods with similar forms and functions were chosen in each city after (Banerjee et al., 2021), (Banerjee et al., 2020) to perform 12 microclimate simulations (12 hours) in summer and winter. Partial encroachments were modeled using the single z-wall feature of ENVI-met. This is the first study to validate ENVI-met seasonal RH simulations in complex neighborhoods geometries, i.e. an elevated vehicular corridor, a large riverbank, and temporary encroachments.

The research concludes that few studies have validated RH so far. Our validation study reports ENVI-met thoroughly overestimates RH in most cases. In Mumbai, Fashion Street has significant greenery and a Gymkhana nearby, attributed to high RH during the morning hours, especially in hot-humid summers. Naturally, RH decreases with an increase in Air Temperature (Ta). For Dadar, in summer, the deep canyon has the highest RH. This pattern is opposite to the observed summer Ta and Mean Radiant Temperature (Tmrt) pattern in Dadar in both seasons. For Mallickghat, RH decreases with increasing Ta. For both seasons, the deep canyon shows the highest RH profile due to the lack of wind flow in the canyon caused by the blockage of river wind by built structures. In Kumartuli, the deep canyon has the highest RH for both seasons, due to the lack of adequate wind flow from encroachment imparted roughness and trapped moisture in the canyon. This agrees with existing studies that show vegetation or other elements of roughness can block the wind flow or ventilation within a canyon. This deviation may be attributed to boundary conditions assumptions such as a neutrally stratified atmosphere, which is not always valid in cities with strong radiative input such as Kolkata and Mumbai. For Mallickghat, our result shows ENVI-met can predict RH well for a shallow canyon (R sq. = 0.77), although for the deep canyon, the RH prediction ability of ENVI-met is lower (R sq. = 0.59). Similar RH patterns between deep and shallow canyons in both neighborhoods may be due to anthropogenic heat-related discrepancies in deep canyons that can completely change the pattern of ambient RH. Overall, the study concludes that ENVI-met predicts RH well as the correlation between the measured data and simulation demonstrates consistency.

Banerjee, S., Middel, A., & Chattopadhyay, S. (2020). Outdoor thermal comfort in various microentrepreneurial settings in hot humid tropical Kolkata : Human biometeorological assessment of objective and subjective parameters. Science of the Total Environment, 721, 137741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137741

Banerjee, S., Middel, A., & Chattopadhyay, S. (2021). A regression-based three-phase approach to assess outdoor thermal comfort in informal micro-entrepreneurial settings in tropical Mumbai. International Journal of Biometeorology. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02136-7

How to cite: Banerjee, S., Middel, A., and Chattopadhyay, S.: Validating ENVI-met for Relative Humidity (RH) in high-density temporary encroachment spaces in the streets of tropical Indian megacities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3434, 2022.

EGU22-3530 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Hourly air temperature mapping in Guangdong province utilizing machine learning 

Guangzhao Chen, Yuan Shi, Chao Ren, and Edward Ng

Air temperature is a crucial variable in urban climate and relevant to many studies, such as urban heat islands, heat waves, climate change, energy consumption, and health-related heat exposure risk studies. Previous studies used land surface temperature (LST) and inversion methods to obtain air temperature maps with spatial detail or used weather station observations and spatial interpolation to obtain air temperature maps with high temporal resolution. However, fine spatial detail and high temporal resolution have not been resolved simultaneously. Moreover, there are differences in LST and air temperature definitions, which cannot be equated. Therefore, in this study, we carried out hourly air temperature mapping at 1-km resolution over a multi-year summer period for Guangdong Province, China, employing machine learning algorithms as well as meteorological and landscape data. The meteorological data were hourly observations from 86 weather stations in Guangdong containing variables such as air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, barometric pressure, and wind speed. The landscape data were mainly from the landscape indices calculated based on local climate zone (LCZ) maps, mapped via Google Earth Pro and Google Earth Engine. Then, we employed the random forest (RF) algorithm for the hourly air temperature mapping. The validation results showed that the hourly air temperature maps achieved good accuracy from 2008 to 2019 with a mean R2 value of 0.8001. The importance assessment of the driving factors showed that meteorological factors, especially relative humidity, make the most outstanding contribution to air temperature mapping. Simultaneously, the landscape factors also played a non-negligible role. Further analysis revealed that the maps steadily maintained high accuracy at nighttime (20:00-7:00), which is the most critical period for studying urban heat islands. In addition, the air temperature patterns showed a correlation with the landscape. Air temperatures in contiguous mountainous areas with dense trees were significantly lower than those in the plains. Moreover, there is a correlation between nighttime air temperature changes and urban morphology, and urban-rural differences exist simultaneously. Air temperatures tend to fall more slowly in the core of metropolitan areas than in the urban fringe. Overall, this study employed machine learning to reliably improve the temporal resolution of air temperature mapping with more spatial detail. Furthermore, it reveals spatially explicit air temperature patterns in and around cities at different times in a day during the summer. In addition, it provides a new valuable and advantageous dataset for relevant applications.

How to cite: Chen, G., Shi, Y., Ren, C., and Ng, E.: Hourly air temperature mapping in Guangdong province utilizing machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3530, 2022.

EGU22-3931 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

How does North Atlantic Oscillation modify summer urban heat load in Zagreb (Croatia)? 

Irena Nimac, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Maja Žuvela-Aloise, and Matej Žgela

Combined with global warming, urban areas are in additional danger of extreme heat due to the well-known urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. In this study, the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on urban heat load in Zagreb (Croatia) is investigated using ground measurements from meteorological station Zagreb-Maksimir, as well as an urban climate model MUKLIMO_3. NAO impact in both winter (wNAO) and summer (sNAO) seasons are analysed in terms of indirect (lagged) and direct effects on the urban heat load. The strongest increase in heat load is detected when positive wNAO is followed by negative sNAO, while the opposite situation is associated with heat load decrease. NAO impact is the weakest for situations with the same wNAO and sNAO polarity due to their opposing effects on climate parameters over investigated area. Besides changes in the total heat load, differences in UHI intensity are also found. Results indicate soil moisture as one of potential physical links between NAO and the heat load. The combination of positive wNAO and negative sNAO supports dry and warm conditions over the Zagreb area and vice versa. In situations with extended dry period, green areas experience stronger increase in heat load than densely built-up regions. Therefore, cooling efficiency of vegetation can be modified with NAO through the processes that include precipitation, temperature and soil moisture. This was confirmed by additional modelling experiments considering standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). These findings are additionally confirmed using land surface temperature data from Landsat-8 satellite. Results of this study demonstrate that irrigation of green urban areas should be included in UHI mitigation measures, particularly for situations when seasonal forecasts indicate long-lasting warm and dry conditions.

Nimac, I., Herceg-Bulić, I., Žuvela-Aloise, M. and Žgela, M. (2022), Impact of NAO and SPEI conditions on summer urban heat load – a case study for Zagreb. Int J Climatol. Accepted Author Manuscript. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7507

How to cite: Nimac, I., Herceg-Bulić, I., Žuvela-Aloise, M., and Žgela, M.: How does North Atlantic Oscillation modify summer urban heat load in Zagreb (Croatia)?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3931, 2022.

Episodes of extremely high temperatures (heatwaves) are associated with an increased risk of human mortality. People living in cities are at the most significant risk of heat-related mortality due to the urban heat island effect. Although most studies investigate the impact of heat stress on mortality in a city as a whole, the magnitude of the heat stress in a particular part of the city depends on its physical characteristics.

Our study aims to investigate spatio-temporal links between the spatial distribution of the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) and heatwave-related mortality in Prague, the Czech Republic. We will analyse daily all-cause mortality in ten Prague districts between 2001 and 2010. A mortality baseline in each district will be determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends and seasonal and weekly cycles. Relative deviations from the baseline mortality will be calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with a mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of the annual distribution. Six major heatwaves will be selected to investigate the links between the spatial distribution of SUHII and heat wave-related mortality. Daily MODIS land surface temperature images will be used to analyse the spatio-temporal changes in SUHII during the major heatwaves. Spatial statistics tools in ArcGIS will be used to investigate the spatio-temporal patterns.

Our study hypothesizes that the spatial distribution of heat-related mortality is associated with the distribution of SUHII during the major heatwaves. Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are expected to increase, and the urban heat island intensity is likely to increase in response to heatwaves. The results of our study will help to identify areas in Prague with the most significant impact of urban design on heat-related mortality. This information is vital for identifying hot spots of heat-related mortality and developing strategies to mitigate heat stress in the city.

How to cite: Dogan, T. and Urban, A.: Links between the spatial distribution of the surface urban heat island and heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4464, 2022.

Whether the urban heat island (UHI) is affected by air pollution in urban areas has attracted much attention. By analyzing the observation data of automatic weather stations and environmental monitoring stations in Beijing from 2016 to 2018, we found a seasonally dependent interlink of the UHI intensity (UHII) and PM2.5 concentration in urban areas. PM2.5 pollution weakens the UHII in summer and winter night, but strengthens it during winter daytime. The correlation between the UHI and PM2.5 concentration has been regulated by the interaction of aerosol with radiation, evaporation and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height. The former two change the surface energy balance via sensible and latent heat fluxes, while the latter affects atmospheric stability and energy exchange. In summer daytime, aerosol-radiation interaction plays an important role, and the energy balance in urban areas is more sensitive to PM2.5 concentration than in rural areas, thereby weakening UHII. In winter daytime, aerosol-PBL interaction is dominant, because aerosols lower the PBL height and stabilize atmosphere, weaken the heat exchange with the surrounding, with more heat accumulated in the urban areas and the increased UHII. Changes in evaporation and radiation strengthen the relationship. At night, the change of UHII more depends on the energy stored in the urban canopy. Aerosols effectively reduce the incident energy during daytime, and the long-wave radiation from the buildings of urban canopy at night becomes less, leading to a weakened UHII. Our analysis results can improve the understanding of climate-aerosols interaction in megacities like Beijing.

How to cite. Yang, G., Ren, G., Zhang, P., Xue, X., Tysa, S. K., Jia, W., Qin, Y., Zheng, X., and Zhang, S.: PM2.5 Influence on Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect in Beijing and the Possible Mechanisms, Geophys Res Atmos, 126, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035227, 2021.

How to cite: Yang, G.: PM2.5 influence on Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Beijing and the possible mechanisms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4581, 2022.

Local weather and climate conditions are affected by the presence of cities, through their perturbation of the surface energy balance. A well-know manifestation is the Urban Heat Island (UHI) in which land surface and near surface air temperatures are higher over a city compared to its rural surroundings. In this work, we explore the suitability of air temperature station records, in conjunction with urbanization data derived from land and population data, to provide credible urban-rural temperature differences for the MENA region.

Specifically, for air temperature we utilize daily and sub-daily time-series from the Integrated Surface Database (ISD), resulting in more than 300 station records for the MENA. We subsequently characterize the degree of urbanization of these stations using the gridded, 1km x km GHSL Settlement model (GHSL-SMOD) data that calculate 8 classes of urban and rural spatial entities from built-up area (Landsat) and population (CIESIN Gridded Population of the World) data. Examples of the derived UHI magnitude from the identified station pairs will be shown, and the associated assumptions and limitations of the followed approach will be discussed.

How to cite: Tzyrkalli, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Constantinidou, K., and Lelieveld, J.: Utilising weather station (ISD), and satellite and population (GHSL-SMOD) datasets to estimate Urban Heat Island over locations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4648, 2022.

EGU22-4769 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

High-resolution meteorological simulations in Heidelberg using GRAMM/GRAL model 

Robert Maiwald, Simone Wald, Ivo Suter, Dominik Brunner, André Butz, and Sanam Vardag

More than 60% of global greenhouse gases are produced in urban areas. Urban areas therefore exhibit an immense mitigation potential, which needs to be fully exploited to limit climate change.  In order to monitor the effectiveness of mitigation measures, local decision makers require sub-urban data on the spatio-temporal distribution of greenhouse gases. The GRAMM/GRAL model is capable of calculating high-resolution (10m) wind fields over long time periods by using a “catalogue approach”. The model is therefore well suited to support mitigation efforts in cities.

GRAMM/GRAL is composed of the mesoscale model GRAMM and a coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model GRAL. GRAMM calculates meteorological wind fields by solving the Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation. In the catalogue approach, the model GRAMM calculates about 1000 wind fields with 100 m resolution each with a different set of atmospheric stabilities, wind speeds and directions. The CFD model GRAL uses these wind fields as input at the boundaries and calculates higher resolution (10m) wind fields taking the flow around buildings into account. Passive tracers may be released within the GRAL model to simulate their dispersion using a Lagrangian particle dispersion approach. A time series of wind fields and concentrations can be obtained by matching measured and simulated wind fields. This matching procedure saves computational costs and therefore enables the analysis of longer time periods.

In this study, we characterize the GRAMM/GRAL model performance in Heidelberg and compare modelled and measured wind fields in an urban setting for a period of three months. In general, we find a good agreement between modelled and simulated wind direction. Wind speeds can be simulated with a root-mean square difference of about 1.0 m/s and a mean bias of about 0.6 m/s. We find that the number of wind stations influences the overall model performance, which is in accordance to Berchet et al. (2017).

We further present an outlook on possible set-ups of an inversion scheme to estimate greenhouse gas fluxes from a hypothetical measurement network. To this end, we utilize the high-resolution model GRAMM/GRAL to simulate CO2 concentration in the urban atmosphere and plan to approximate CO2 fluxes using regularized least-square approaches as well as machine-learning methods. We discuss remaining challenges such as background CO2 and biogenic CO2 fluxes.

How to cite: Maiwald, R., Wald, S., Suter, I., Brunner, D., Butz, A., and Vardag, S.: High-resolution meteorological simulations in Heidelberg using GRAMM/GRAL model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4769, 2022.

EGU22-5074 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Predicting natural ventilation potential in idealised urban neighbourhoods across Chinese climate zones 

Xiaoxiong Xie, Zhiwen Luo, Sue Grimmond, Ting Sun, and Lewis Blunn

Natural ventilation is widely used for low-carbon building design. Its potential is influenced largely by the building’s micrometeorological context. Traditionally, weather data used in building energy simulation are observed at rural sites which are far from the site of interest and not representative of the area’s surroundings. Here we combine the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) and the building energy simulation tool, EnergyPlus, to predict the natural ventilation potential (NVP) in buildings located in urban areas in five representative Chinese cities in different climate zones. The meteorological data required by EnergyPlus (e.g. air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed profile) are modelled by SUEWS. The dense urban areas (building fraction λP = 0.6) have an overall warmer and less windy environment compared to rural areas. In summer, the urban-rural natural ventilation hour differences are -3% to -85% (cf. rural) across all climates, while in spring/autumn differences are -25% to 42%. The method is intended to improve the accuracy of NVP prediction using EnergyPlus in cities.

How to cite: Xie, X., Luo, Z., Grimmond, S., Sun, T., and Blunn, L.: Predicting natural ventilation potential in idealised urban neighbourhoods across Chinese climate zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5074, 2022.

EGU22-5144 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

WRF Simulations on the Impacts and Responses of Extreme Weather Events: From the Perspectives of Climate Change and Urbanisation over UK Cities 

Sichan Du, Lu Zhuo, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Dawei Han, Ying Liu, Jiao Wang, and Qin Wang

In the twenty-first century, extreme weather events leading to flooding and heat waves, have become one of the most severe challenges in urban areas, especially under the circumstances of local climate change and rapid urbanisation. In the future, cities are going to encounter more severe natural disaster risks and understanding how these could combine with modification of the urban environment (for example through adoption of green infrastructure) is critical for decisions relating to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Green infrastructure is a subset of resilient infrastructure, which may mitigate the adverse effects caused by extreme weather and contribute to regulating urban climate. In addition, high-performing green spaces bring additional benefits for society in terms of health and wellbeing. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a numerical weather prediction system supporting both atmospheric research and operational forecasting. Within this modelling system, there is the possibility to modify parameters according to various urban areas within the WRF-Urban configuration. In this study, Newcastle upon Tyne (a UK city with the benefit of a lot of observational sensor data) is selected as an initial target city for identifying the optimal WRF configuration by varying the model resolution, domain size and nesting strategy. Future work will explore the influence of implementing green infrastructure in the context of climate change and urbanisation, then extending this analysis to London.

How to cite: Du, S., Zhuo, L., Kendon, E. J., Han, D., Liu, Y., Wang, J., and Wang, Q.: WRF Simulations on the Impacts and Responses of Extreme Weather Events: From the Perspectives of Climate Change and Urbanisation over UK Cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5144, 2022.

Despite extensive efforts in the past few decades, it still remains a big challenge to reach a coherent and concrete conclusion on how urbanization modifies precipitation for differently located and configured cities. To investigate the impacts of urbanization on summer precipitation characteristics over Montreal, the second most populous city in Canada, two sets of high-resolution numerical simulations using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, for consecutive summers (2015-2019), one with detailed urban representation using the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model and one without TEB, are used in this study.

To validate the performance of GEM, the simulation results are directly compared with observations from Environment and Climate Change Canada weather stations, spread across the city. Results show that GEM is able to capture the general climate characteristics such as diurnal cycles of 2-meter air temperature, relative humidity, 10-meter wind pattern, and precipitation intensity distribution reasonably well over Montreal. Comparison of the two sets of simulations shows that urbanization induces a general reduction of the total summer precipitation amount over Montreal due to decreased evapotranspiration caused by land surface modification. Results also suggest an increasing tendency of extreme precipitation amount at higher temperatures in the simulations with TEB, catalyzed by enhanced surface convergence and moisture supply. Additional sensitivity experiments helped understand how urbanization has impacted the management of various engineering systems, such as road infrastructure.  

How to cite: Yin, H., Sushama, L., and Teufel, B.: Impacts of urbanization on summer precipitation and management of engineering infrastructure systems for Montreal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5182, 2022.

EGU22-5793 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

MTD: a new powerful method to select urban-rural pairs for Urban Heat Island quantification applied to Turin, Italy 

Francesca Bassani, Valeria Garbero, Davide Poggi, Luca Ridolfi, Jost von Hardenberg, and Massimo Milelli

Since Howard (1833) first suggested that air temperatures recorded in urban areas are higher than in the surrounding countryside, there have been hundreds of studies of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon, which is due to the different thermal properties between urbanized and natural lands, anthropogenic heat emissions, human-induced pollution and limited wind blowing among buildings. The impervious land cover type and the presence of sheltering constructions trap heat during the day and release it during the night,  resulting in higher night-time temperatures. The UHI intensity is commonly computed as the difference between an urban and a rural measurement site and, therefore, the definition of station pairs is a crucial task for its evaluation. To this end, we propose a powerful method capable of highlighting the thermal pattern typical of each weather station: the Mean Temperature Difference (MTD) method. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is adopted to cluster similar thermal behaviours, allowing an objective classification of the stations. The strength and novelty of this data-based approach, which employs hourly temperature measurements, lays in the fact that any preliminary assumption about the landscape characterizing each station (i.e. urban or rural) is not needed, making it less arbitrary and more objective than other methods. The application of the proposed method to the metropolitan area of Turin (Italy) shows that the joint use of MTD with PCA yields reliable and easily interpretable results, also in an area with complex morphology (orographic and hydrographic heterogeneity, different land uses, etc.). Once the best urban and rural pairs have been identified, the characteristics of the Urban Heat Island are shown, highlighting its seasonal and daily properties.

How to cite: Bassani, F., Garbero, V., Poggi, D., Ridolfi, L., von Hardenberg, J., and Milelli, M.: MTD: a new powerful method to select urban-rural pairs for Urban Heat Island quantification applied to Turin, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5793, 2022.

EGU22-6213 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

A global Local Climate Zone map: revealing intra-urban heterogeneity. 

Jonas Kittner, Matthias Demuzere, Gerald Mills, Christian Moede, Dev Niyogi, Jasper van Vliet, and Benjamin Bechtel

There is a scientific consensus on the need for spatially detailed information on urban landscapes at a global scale to support a range of environmental services, as cities are acknowledged as places of: intense resource consumption and waste generation and foci of population and infrastructure that are exposed to multiple hazards of natural and anthropogenic origin. In the face of climate change, urban data is also required for future urbanisation pathways and urban design strategies, in order to “lock in” long-term resilience and sustainability, protecting cities from future decisions that could undermine their adaptability. Eventually, these global form-based, contextually specific urban planning and urban design strategies are the ultimate guarantors of successful life cycle costs, payback, and liveability. Moreover, these strategies are needed to identify the relevant data for planning and climate on neighbourhood, city and global scales, and to become part of a basic infrastructure to support a host of studies on exposure to environmental hazards, energy demand, climate adaptation and mitigation solutions and human health, as examples. 

Therefore, a more holistic urban landscape description is required, that goes beyond the urban mask and that enables the assessment of the spatial impact of urban planning decisions that will alter urban canopy parameters (UCPs) and their climate outcome. 

The global Local Climate Zone (LCZ) map presented here serves this purpose, as the LCZ typology is the only universal classification that can distinguish urban surfaces on a holistic basis, accounting for the typical combination of micro-scale land-covers and associated physical properties, all being the consequence of historic urbanisation patterns that reflect local terrain, culture, economy, etc. The 100m resolution global LCZ map is generated by feeding an unprecedented amount of labelled training areas (partly sourced from the LCZ Generator - https://lcz-generator.rub.de/) and earth observation imagery into lightweight random forest models. Its quality is assessed using the default bootstrap-based cross validation alongside a thematic benchmark for 150 selected functional urban areas using independent global and open- source data on surface cover, surface imperviousness, anthropogenic heat and building height.

Complementing the single cities‘ LCZ maps accessible via the LCZ Generator, the global LCZ map for the first time reveals the world‘s intra-urban heterogeneity heterogeinity. In addition, as each LCZ type is associated with generic numerical descriptions of key UCPs, parameters critical to model atmospheric responses to urbanisation, the availability of this globally consistent and climate-relevant urban description is an essential prerequisite for developing fit-for-purpose integrated climate-sensitive urban planning policies.

How to cite: Kittner, J., Demuzere, M., Mills, G., Moede, C., Niyogi, D., van Vliet, J., and Bechtel, B.: A global Local Climate Zone map: revealing intra-urban heterogeneity., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6213, 2022.

EGU22-6218 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Measuring thermal comfort of courtyards by mobile measurements - a case study 

Uta Moderow, Valeri Goldberg, and Astrid Ziemann

Cities are currently becoming more densely built almost everywhere, thus reducing the possible amount of areas for public green spaces, which are even more relevant in light of climate change as they can mitigate thermal stress during hot summer days. Here, optimizing existing courtyards concerning their green structure might be an option in order to provide conditions of low thermal stress during these days. However, there is no vast amount of studies addressing this issue for temperate and cold climate and related typical urban structures by measurements. We present mobile measurements recorded in Erfurt (Germany) during a hot summer day in 2018. These measurements also covered three courtyards of different design and geometry. Differences in air temperature between the three courtyards were small, but larger differences in mean radiation temperature existed, which mainly contributed to differences in thermal stress for human beings. We used the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI, Jendritzky et al. 2012; Błażejczyk et al. 2010) to assess human thermal comfort. Out of the three investigated courtyards the smallest courtyard with established trees showed the lowest thermal load providing conditions of no thermal stress almost throughout the whole day (UTCI range: 18°C – 28°C). Highest values of thermal stress were recorded for the most open spaced courtyard with a value of 31°C after midday. Thermal loads of the different courtyards were related to general aspects (size of courtyard, ratio of unvegetated and sealed areas to vegetated areas). However, the sample size is too small to draw general conclusions and underlines the necessity for further measurements. We hope that our work will help to broaden the base of available measurements for climatic conditions and typical urban structures for Middle Europe concerning courtyards.

References

Błażejczyk, K., Broede, P., Fiala, D., Havenith, G., Holmér, I., Jendritzky, G., Kampmann, B., and Kunert, A.: Principles of the New Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and its Application to Bioclimatic Research in European Scale, 14, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2010-0009, 2010.

Jendritzky, G., Dear, R. de, and Havenith, G.: UTCI—Why another thermal index?, Int J Biometeorol, 56, 421–428, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0513-7, 2012.

How to cite: Moderow, U., Goldberg, V., and Ziemann, A.: Measuring thermal comfort of courtyards by mobile measurements - a case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6218, 2022.

EGU22-6365 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Evaluating urban risks in Europe using publicly available continental-scale data 

Zeting Li, Gerald Mill, Matthias Demuzere, and Benjamin Bechtel

Cities are major drivers of climate change and are especially at risk from projected changes, such as more frequent and enhanced flood and heatwave events. Many of these hazards are elevated for cities because of their topographic settings (e.g., low-elevation and close to coasts) and urban layout (e.g., impervious fraction), the details of which are unique to each city. While there have been studies of the impact of climate change on cities, these have generally examined exposure in individual cities to projected changes or of urbanized landscapes to one change, such as sea-level rise. This research uses the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) map of Europe as a framework to examine city-based mitigation and adaptation options at a continental scale. The LCZ scheme describes types of urban landscapes and their physical properties that can be used to assess degrees of hazard exposure. These data will be combined with other publicly available geographic datasets on projected climate changes, topography, population, greenhouse gas emissions, etc., to provide a large-scale evaluation of urban risk and responses.

How to cite: Li, Z., Mill, G., Demuzere, M., and Bechtel, B.: Evaluating urban risks in Europe using publicly available continental-scale data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6365, 2022.

In the context of global warming, frequent extreme climate events, especially high temperature heat waves and global warming, lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves. At the same time, due to changes in climatic and hydrological characteristics, extreme precipitation and drought events closely related to people's lives frequently occur. This research studies the heat waves and extreme precipitation events from 1971 to 2020 in the Mediterranean coast of Spain, mainly in the Barcelona metropolitan area, and analyzes their main causes and influencing factors. It is of great significance to formulate improved policies and protection mechanisms in the future to promote sustainable urban development. We selected 8 different meteorological observatories as primary climate data sources in the provinces of Barcelona and Valencia, Alicante, Murcia and Almeria respectively. Using the OLS model, we estimated the global warming at each temperature by the cosine formula     from the analysis of the daily average temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature for each observation point. As a result, stations with higher average temperatures had lower estimates of their warming. The performance of global warming varies greatly between day and night, and is more pronounced at night than during the day. Raval is the only sample with negative values. We taken 1971-2000 as the observation period, and use the 95% percentile to judge extreme climate. It was found that the frequency of heat waves increased year by year, and the number of heat waves occurred at night was significantly higher than that during the day. The precipitation on a heat wave night is generally higher than that on a heat wave day, but the heat wave is usually accompanied by drought. However high humidity is high during the heatwave in central Barcelona. The occurrence of extreme precipitation decreases, with a higher density of heavy rainfall in the southern region than in Barcelona. In addition, extreme precipitation has made an outstanding contribution to the annual precipitation, up to 88.47%. Finally, various regression models are established to analyze the possible factors affecting extreme climate. High latitudes and long distances from the sea promote heatwaves during the day and can also prolong the number of days that they last. Heatwave nights are more frequent in high latitudes, but staying away from the ocean and high altitude can improve it. In addition, global warming and precipitation are supporting factors for high temperature heat waves. The frequency of extreme precipitation is directly proportional with latitude and mean precipitation, and is inversely correlated with distance and altitude from the sea and daily maximum temperature. There is no obvious relationship between extreme precipitation and daily maximum precipitation.

How to cite: Zhang, X., Roca Cladera, J., and Arellano Ramos, B.: Research on Extreme Weather Events in Spain - Analysis of high temperature heat wave and extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean Coast of Spain and Barcelona, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6438, 2022.

EGU22-6889 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

The synergistic effects of the Air Clean Plan and carbon mitigation on air quality and public health in China from 2014 to 2060 

Zhige Wang, Bifeng Hu, Ruiying Zhao, Yanyu Wang, and Zhou Shi

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) induces serious environmental health risks worldwide, particularly in developing countries like Mexico, India and China. Despite the fact that China has achieved tremendous progress by implementing tough air pollution control measures since 2013, there is still a clear gap between the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. In order to meet the goals of PM2.5 control and ensure the public health in the context of global climate change, it is critical to well understand the effects of current policy and carbon mitigation on reducing PM2.5 concentrations and attributable health risk. To fill this gap, in this study we integrate remote sensing data, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, disease-specific concentration-response functions (CRFs) and scenarios setting to comprehensively estimating the PM2.5 and related-death change during Air Clean Plan (ACP, 2014 to 2020), air clean policy effectiveness, carbon-related co-benefits and future related death across mainland China. During ACP (2014-2020), PM2.5 concentrations and attributable death in mainland China reduced by 13.41 μg m-3 and 0.16 million (~11.85%), respectively, indicating the substantial effectiveness and health benefits of ACP. Clean production made the highest contribution among the ACP measures. Since the signing of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2016, the synergistic effects of carbon emission reduction have been emerging as one of the key factors to address the air pollution and its related disease burden in China. Nevertheless, the PM2.5-related disease burden are still severe in 2020, with ~1.19 million premature deaths in mainland China, accounting for ~17.84% of the global air pollution-related death. Under the China carbon neutrality pathway, 0.18 million (~15.13 %) and 0.35 million (~29.41%) premature deaths can be averted by 2030 and 2060, respectively. In addition, holding the air pollution control measures and health care level constant, the maximum low-carbon measures (i.e., 1.5℃ target scenarios) will bring higher health benefits in 2060. However, the population aging accompanies socio-economic development is still the major threat to the public health in long term. Our results could provide important implication for future development pathway setting to achieve the WHO AQG target, the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target and NDC goal in China under the dual pressure from air clean and carbon emission mitigation.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Hu, B., Zhao, R., Wang, Y., and Shi, Z.: The synergistic effects of the Air Clean Plan and carbon mitigation on air quality and public health in China from 2014 to 2060, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6889, 2022.

EGU22-7046 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Crucial consistency of the water balance in urban land surface models 

Harro Jongen, Mathew Lipson, Ryan Teuling, Sue Grimmond, and Gert-Jan Steeneveld

The development of urban areas impacts the local climate and hydrology. Cities have been modelled with an array of models with different complexities. These models are called urban land surface models (ULSM) and focus on radiation, and turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes. Grimmond et al. (2010) evaluated these models finding that the latent heat flux is the most challenging to simulate. This flux is part of both the energy balance and water balance, as the latent heat flux is the energy equivalent of the mass evapotranspiration. Thus, the hydrological circumstances may be crucial to correctly model the turbulent heat fluxes. However, the representation of the water balance in these models has not been the focus of a multi-model evaluation. As a part of the follow-up project to the work by Grimmond et al. and Urban-PLUMBER we evaluated the representation of the water balance in ULSMs with varying complexity and representation of the water balance. It is difficult to evaluate the water balance fluxes against observations, as not all terms are observed. For example, changes in water storage require knowledge of the state of all the individual stores (e.g. soil moisture, detention ponds). Analysis of 14 models shows a large spread in the magnitude of the individual water balance fluxes. The rate of reduction of the latent heat flux/evapotranspiration during periods without rainfall varies widely between models, consistent with literature (e.g. Jongen et al., 2022). Initial analysis suggests that models that simulate the water balance and conserve mass are more likely to accurately simulate turbulent heat fluxes. It is thus crucial that both the water and energy balance are accounted for in future urban model improvements.

How to cite: Jongen, H., Lipson, M., Teuling, R., Grimmond, S., and Steeneveld, G.-J.: Crucial consistency of the water balance in urban land surface models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7046, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7046, 2022.

EGU22-7193 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

The impact of COVID-19 confinement measures on the canopy urban heat island intensity of Ghent (Belgium) 

Rafiq Hamdi, Emma Tronquo, Eva Bogaerts, Kim-Marie Hoang, Corentin Loudeche, Ellen Claeys, Steven Caluwaerts, François Duchêne, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, and Piet Termonia

In the context of the COVID-19 outbreak, a strict lockdown was ordered by Belgian authorities from 18/03/2020 till 04/05/2020. This led to a limitation of industrial production, human activities and transport use where only essential motorized transport were permitted. This research is an attempt to study the impact of these measures on the canopy layer urban heat island intensity in the city of Ghent. We used the high-accuracy observational MOCCA (MOnitoring the City’s Climate and Atmosphere) network. This network is monitoring the urban climate of the city of Ghent since July 2016. The network consists of six weather stations in the Ghent region and provides a database of hourly observation including 2m temperature at six locations (including dense urban, industrial and suburban). Only clear-sky days with an average wind speed lower than 3 m/s were selected for both the confinement period in 2020 and for similar periods in the reference years 2017, 2018 and 2019. For the years 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively 3, 3 and 7 reference days were retained to compare with 9 selected days of the 2020 confinement period. Results indicate a lower UHI intensity during the day for 2020 compared to the reference years for the dense, industrial and suburban site. A statistically significant difference was found at 15h, 16h, and 17h for the dense urban site (Provinciehuis). The statistical test did not give significant difference for the suburban site (Wondelgem). Human activities in the urban dense areas release a large amount of heat, which can directly heat the air and during the daytime around 16h when the storage heat flux switch from positive to negative values with weak value of the net radiation fluxes, the external source of energy due to the anthropogenic heat can drive the surrounding hot air to mix with local air and further warm near‐surface air temperature (2 m above ground level). However, during the lockdown period this external contribution to the surface energy balance was absent inducing a cooling gradient of the temperature in the dense urban site (Provinciehuis) up to 0.4°C/h around 18h-19h stronger in 2020 compared to the references years. During nighttime the UHI intensity becomes larger mainly driven by the release of energy stored during the day and the UHI intensities are similar for 2020 and the reference years indicating that the lockdown measures will not have had an impact on the UHI intensity during the night.

How to cite: Hamdi, R., Tronquo, E., Bogaerts, E., Hoang, K.-M., Loudeche, C., Claeys, E., Caluwaerts, S., Duchêne, F., Van Schaeybroeck, B., and Termonia, P.: The impact of COVID-19 confinement measures on the canopy urban heat island intensity of Ghent (Belgium), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7193, 2022.

EGU22-7205 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Modelling the urban heat island of London, and implications for heat-related mortality during the 2018 summer heatwave 

Oscar Brousse, Charles Simpson, Owain Kenway, and Clare Heaviside

The impact of cities on the local climate is a well-known and -studied phenomenon. In particular, cities increase local air temperature, particularly at night, and creating what is called the urban heat island (UHI). The UHI in the UK’s capital city of London was one of the first to be quantified by Luke Howard around 1830. Since then, many studies have measured, or modelled, the impact of urbanization on local temperatures, and considered the potential impacts on heat-related mortality. Nevertheless, these studies are often: i) focused on short-time periods – e.g., constrained to few days of heatwave; ii) lack spatial density and/or representativity of measurements; or iii) don’t report a method that would make their results and outcomes comparable to other cities.

Our aim is to make coherent spatio-temporal estimations of the burden that cities bring in terms of heat-related mortality. To achieve this, we ran two 3-months (June to August) regional climate simulations at 1 km horizontal resolution using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) which consist of two simple scenarios: with and without the city. For both scenarios, the model was parameterized using the new standardized WUDAPT-TO-WRF python tool. In the natural scenario, surrounding natural pixels from MODIS were considered most probable land covers and replace the city. In the urban scenario, urban canopy parameters were obtained from the European Local Climate Zones (LCZ) map. We used the complex three-dimensional Building Effect Parameterization urban canopy model with its Building Energy Model (BEP-BEM) to represent the urban effect in the urban scenario. The simulations were run for the 2018 summer and its 4 heatwaves over London and the south east of England. The model was evaluated for its urban scenario against a variety of earth observations and meteorological measurements from official and crowd-sourced data. Finally, we bias-corrected the urban and the natural scenario using an innovative method that relies on official automatic and citizen weather stations. This way, me make sure that the calculated heat anomaly induced by the city is as representative as possible , and allows us to quantify the proportion of heat related mortality which we attribute to the urban heat island in London.

Our study is considered one of the first to model a whole seasonal impact of a city on its local climate using a highly complex urban canopy model and a standardized method of parameterization. Our bias-correction method is also expected to provide key perspectives on the joint utility of modelled and crowd-sourced weather data for heat-related epidemiological studies.

How to cite: Brousse, O., Simpson, C., Kenway, O., and Heaviside, C.: Modelling the urban heat island of London, and implications for heat-related mortality during the 2018 summer heatwave, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7205, 2022.

EGU22-7478 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Land and atmospheric conditions regulating urban heat and dry islands and their impact on convective cloud formation 

Clinton T.F. Chiu, Kai Wang, Athanasios Paschalis, Tohid Erfani, Nadav Peleg, Simone Fatichi, Natalie Theeuwes, and Gabriele Manoli

Urbanization modifies heat, moisture and energy budgets at the land surface, resulting in significant urban-rural differences. A consequence of land conversion to the built environment is the higher air and surface temperatures in cities compared to their rural surroundings, the so-called urban heat island (UHI) effect.  A few studies have also analysed the impact of cities on atmospheric humidity, the so-called urban dry island (UDI) effect, and observational evidence have revealed enhanced cloud cover and intensified rainfall events over large metropolitan areas. However, the impact of UHI and UDI on convection triggering is still a matter of enquiry. The understanding of how urban-induced change in the surface energy budget affects the diurnal evolution of the boundary layer temperature and humidity profiles is crucial to investigate the formation of convective clouds over cities.

We propose an analytical zero-order model of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) to quantify the impact of surface and free atmosphere conditions on UHI, UDI, and convection triggering. The model is shown to reproduce field observations from the BUBBLE experiment in Basel (Switzerland) and is used to investigate the crossing between the ABL height and the lifting condensation level (LCL) as a proxy for the triggering of convective clouds. Our results confirm that urban areas are generally warmer and drier compared to rural counterparts, thus increasing both ABL and LCL heights. There is a range of free atmosphere conditions for which changes in urban imperviousness can impact convection triggering but surface warming alone cannot explain the observed enhancement of cloud cover over cities.

How to cite: Chiu, C. T. F., Wang, K., Paschalis, A., Erfani, T., Peleg, N., Fatichi, S., Theeuwes, N., and Manoli, G.: Land and atmospheric conditions regulating urban heat and dry islands and their impact on convective cloud formation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7478, 2022.

EGU22-7671 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

The Potential of Green Roofs in London 

Charles Simpson, Oscar Brousse, and Clare Heaviside

Concerns about the cooling requirements of buildings and negative health effects from heat exposure are increasing with the public’s awareness of climate change. Green roofs have been considered a powerful mitigative and/or adaptive tool to reduce negative impacts of heat. In fact, they can reduce summer indoor-temperatures, as evapotranspiration increases latent heat-flux from a building’s roof. The cooling effect seems to be small on outdoor air temperatures, according to past studies, although green roofs have other benefits in terms of biodiversity, carbon storage, improved building thermal performance and flood management. As the need for sustainable and climate resilient building designs becomes the norm in cities, it is important to assess the status of green roofs coverage and explore potential for future implementation. Accurate information on the prevalence and characteristics of existing green roofs is indeed required to estimate any effect of green roofs on outdoor and indoor temperatures, although this information is often lacking.

Surveying Greater London, we identified existing green roofs and estimated the potential for buildings to be retrofitted with green roofs. Existing green roofs were identified using automated classification of aerial and satellite imagery. Potential for retrofit is assessed using a geospatial database of building characteristics, together with a digital surface model.

The current total green roof area in Greater London is around 1.5 square kilometres (around 0.5% of built area). We estimate that retrofitting existing suitable buildings could add another 3 square kilometres, corresponding to around 2% to the built area in Central London, and around 1% outside Central London. Existing green roofs appear mainly on new buildings rather than being retrofitted, and mainly occur on office and commercial buildings in Central London and residential blocks in redeveloped areas. Potential for retrofit may be highest in the borough of Tower Hamlets, largely on residential blocks with flat roofs.

 This work has direct relevance to sustainable planning policy, especially the London Plan Overheating and cooling policy, and will enable modelling of the building-stock and city-scale effects of green roofs.

How to cite: Simpson, C., Brousse, O., and Heaviside, C.: The Potential of Green Roofs in London, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7671, 2022.

EGU22-7789 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Global climatic controls on the hydrological and thermal trade-offs of urban greening 

Mark Cuthbert, Gabriel Rau, Marie Ekstrom, Denis O'Carroll, and Adam Bates

Heat-related mortality and flooding are pressing challenges for the >4 billion urban population worldwide, exacerbated by increasing urbanization and climate change. Urban greening, such as green roofs and parks, can potentially help address both problems, but the geographical variation of the relative hydrological and thermal performance benefits of such interventions are unknown. Here we quantify globally how climate driven trade-offs exist between modelled hydrological retention and cooling potential of urban greening. Water retention generally increases with aridity in water limited environments, while cooling potential favors lower aridity, energy limited, climates. Urban greening cannot yield high performance simultaneously for addressing both urban heat-island and urban flooding problems in most cities globally. However, in more arid locations, where sustainable, irrigation might be used to improve potential cooling benefits while maintaining retention performance. We demonstrate that as precipitation becomes increasingly variable with climate change, the hydrological and thermal performance of thinner substrates would both diminish more quickly compared to thicker and more deeply vegetated systems, presenting challenges for urban greening strategies. Our results provide a conceptual framework and geographically targeted quantitative guide for urban development, renewal and policymaking.

(See further details in the forthcoming paper Cuthbert et al. (In Press) in the journal Nature Communications, which is a more developed version of the pre-print available here: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/2100/)

How to cite: Cuthbert, M., Rau, G., Ekstrom, M., O'Carroll, D., and Bates, A.: Global climatic controls on the hydrological and thermal trade-offs of urban greening, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7789, 2022.

EGU22-7855 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Characteristics of the urban CO2 plume from Marseille city in the southern France : variability and sources identification using co-emitted species and isotopic ratios. 

Ludovic Lelandais, Irène Xueref-Remy, Aurélie Riandet, Dufresne Marvin, Sauvage Stéphane, Pastra Sanne, Scheeren Bert, and Armengaud Alexandre

Urban areas are large sources of greenhouse gases and pollutants. CO2 source apportionment are of prerequisite for defining efficient mitigation strategy to reach the regional goal of carbon neutrality in 2050. It is yet challenging to document especially in a large and complex megacity such as Aix Marseille Metropolis (the 2nd biggest French city).  In the framework of the ANR COoL-AMmetropolis project, this work focuses on assessing the variability and composition of the CO2 urban plume in the Marseille city. Three years of continuous atmospheric measurements and one field campaigns carried on at the Longchamp station in Marseille, south-east of France (43° 18′ 20″ N, 5° 23′ 41″ E) are presented. This station is in an urban environment and is mainly influenced by traffic, residential and industrial emissions (source: ATMOSUD inventory). Beside air quality variables like Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), black carbon, particulate matter (PM) chemical composition and nitrogen oxides (NOx) are continuously measured at this station to study the spatio-temporal variability of these compounds. A field campaign of one week in January 2020 has been performed to better infer the sources of CO2. One continuous carbon monoxide instrument and two volatile organic compounds analysers were deployed. Furthermore, about 60 air samples were collected for analysing the isotopic ratio and radiocarbon content of atmospheric CO2. Contributions from anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions and biogenic respiration are quantified. The analysis of the temporal co-variations of CO2 with co-emitted species, enhancement ratios and 13C isotopic ratio provide the identification and the contribution of fossil fuel emissions sectors. These results are also be used to verify regional inventories independently and highlights the main emission sectors contributing to the Marseille city center.

How to cite: Lelandais, L., Xueref-Remy, I., Riandet, A., Marvin, D., Stéphane, S., Sanne, P., Bert, S., and Alexandre, A.: Characteristics of the urban CO2 plume from Marseille city in the southern France : variability and sources identification using co-emitted species and isotopic ratios., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7855, 2022.

EGU22-7891 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Communicating dimensions of vulnerability with respect to heat stress 

Antje Katzschner and the ZURES II

Heat waves are one of the most often experienced impacts of climate change. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in heat extremes during the summer months. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the three hottest summers in measured history were all in the 2000s: In Germany, the summers of 2003, 2018 and 2019.

The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) funded project ZURES II – Application and continuation of future-oriented climate and vulnerability scenarios in selected instruments and planning processes – aims to apply methods for urban development targeting heat stress resilience to planning processes of the City of Ludwigsburg. By identifying and evaluating climate change and future changes in social vulnerability in the City of Ludwigsburg, it was possible to link the previously juxtaposed concerns of climate and social urban development. A constant dialogue with municipal representatives in Ludwigsburg resulted in the recognition of urban development plans as a key instrument to achieve an integrative perspective – considering the processes of changes in climate and urban society together.

The primary goal of the continuation phase is thus to strengthen urban resilience and adaptation to heat stress through an integrated planning framework with information on urban society and climate, and to overcome the isolated consideration of social and climatic aspects through transdisciplinary application research. This aim is to be achieved in dialogue with the city and citizen participation measures.

Communicating dimensions of vulnerability

The proposed contribution is an integrated approach of different communication strategies from both the observational (surveys on household and city level) and modelling perspective (urban climate map), examining urban planning processes, the efficacy of various strategies to reduce heat stress, and measures highlighting how the city of Ludwigsburg is already using science data and products from the research project ZURES that facilitate planning and policies on adaptation to heat stress. A special focus will be on the communication of different vulnerabilities and how the project addresses the fundamental question of what constitutes a meaningful basis of information for sustainable and resilient urban development, especially with regard to resilience to heat stress. Up to now, climate analyses and scenarios have often been used to determine risks and adaptation needs as a basis for information. However, this practice is not entirely innovative, as it is unlikely, for example, that the population in 2030 or 2050 will be the same as in 2019. Therefore, the ZURES project aims to develop small-scale vulnerability and risk assessments, which includes further development of climate modelling as well as advancing methodologically innovative scenario techniques to describe future vulnerability to heat stress.

How to cite: Katzschner, A. and the ZURES II: Communicating dimensions of vulnerability with respect to heat stress, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7891, 2022.

EGU22-7910 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Most effective measures to combat heat indoors 

Lisanne Corpel, Anna Solcerova, Samuel de Vries, Jeroen Kluck, Edwin van der Strate, Batoul Mesdaghi, and Ronald van Walsum

Due to climate change, homes are increasingly becoming unacceptably hot, especially during heat waves and therefore create health risks for citizens. To combat heat indoors, active cooling systems, such as air conditioning, are very effective. However, this also comes with negative effects such as increasing energy demand, the use of cooling liquid and releasing heat into the surrounding outdoor environment. Housing associations in particular want to know how they can take possible overheating into account when renovating homes (e.g., for the energy transition). That is why, on behalf of the national government, it was investigated which characteristics on three different levels (the urban area, the building, and the inhabitant) make homes especially vulnerable to heat and which measures can limit that heat.

Desk research (literature study, simulation study and panel discussion) has been carried out in which different situations and the effectiveness of heat-reducing measures have been compared and ranged. For two common housing types in the Netherlands that cover a substantial part of the Dutch housing stock owned by housing corporations, the hourly temperature has been simulated for a representative summer. This was done for many combinations of factors like: green surroundings or urban heat islands effects, solar heat gain (windows, sunscreens), insulation, green roofs, ventilation and use of curtains.

The research shows that the entrance of sun in particular determines overheating of houses and that measures that reduce solar heat gain therefore have the greatest positive effect. Orientation of the house, location and size of windows, and sunscreens are key factors in preventing heat gain. Purge ventilation during the night is the second most important measure, as this helps cooling the house. For this reason night time city temperatures are important. Better insight in those urban night time temperatures is required. The study also showed that human behaviour is an important factor. Correct ventilation and use of sunscreen have a large impact on overheating of houses. Finally, the focus on thermal insulation without sufficient attention on ventilation greatly increases the risks of overheating. The outcome of the research is presented in a guideline for housing associations that ranges the measures in very effective, medium effective and undesirable actions.

How to cite: Corpel, L., Solcerova, A., de Vries, S., Kluck, J., van der Strate, E., Mesdaghi, B., and van Walsum, R.: Most effective measures to combat heat indoors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7910, 2022.

In times of rapid global urbanization, the ability to accurately predict the expansion and impact of urban densification on the local climate is critical to the health and wellbeing of the society. Urban densification is the phenomenon of increasing the number or size of urban structures without increasing urban footprint. The characteristics of urban areas such as- the types of building materials, the geometry or orientation, and the land use zoning including amount of green spaces, all contributes to the urban thermal composition, and intensity of urban warming. However, densification reduces the amount of shade and green or free space per structure, whilst also increasing the paved surface area, thus creating a “heat island (UHI)” due to the mutual heating of building structures and the surrounding infrastructures. In this study, we examine the potential of mitigating the heat island effects through leveraging on thermally massive, low-embodied carbon earth building materials. Such materials have been shown to absorb excess heat, and so may buffer heat island effects whilst simultaneously reducing overall air conditioning energy demands. The effect of adopting these earth materials is examined at the neighborhood scale using state of the earth ENVI-met CFD simulation for urban microclimate and outdoor human thermal comfort modelling. Thus, to understand the consequent impact on neighborhood level changes in urban heat after changing housing materials, the study analyzed different residential neighborhood types (compact, open and sparse low-rise) using the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) classification. Also, various types of earth-based wall construction methods were modelled to evaluate the corresponding impact on the immediate outdoor atmospheric and human thermal comfort conditions. In this contribution, we investigate the hypothetical scenario of replacing conventional cement building materials with traditional earth based alternatives in mitigating emerging UHI effects and show results across different residential neighborhoods.  Ultimately, our findings will help modify construction practices in urbanizing areas to counter urban heat island phenomena effectively.

How to cite: Ibitolu, H., Zhao, Q., Beckett, C., and Fosas, D.: Earthen Building materials to mitigate Urban Heat: An Urban Microclimate and Human Thermal Comfort Study across various neighborhood types, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8188, 2022.

EGU22-8380 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Can wetlands be an effective option to reduce the particulate matter pollution in the air in urban spaces? 

Prasenjit Acharya, Bijoy Krishna Gayen, and Dipanwita Dutta

The problem of particulate matter concentration, especially PM2.5 and PM10, is a major concern for all million-plus cities worldwide. Depending upon the scale of implementation of the available technologies and emission reduction policies, the levels of these particulate matter vary over time and space. In this study, we evaluated the effect of wetlands in reducing the concentration of PM2.5 in the air over one of the highest polluted cities in the world, New Delhi, in the Indian region. The PM2.5 was modeled considering the distance-to-wetlands - from the in-situ pollution monitoring stations - as an influential factor, including other determining environmental covariates such as meteorological parameters, atmospheric optical parameters, surface greenness, and land use and land cover (LULC) type (Experiment Set 1). We also conducted a similar experimental setup to build a predictive model excluding the variable distance-to-wetlands (Experiment Set 2). The data of PM2.5 from 21 monitoring stations and all other covariates corresponding to these stations were collected at a daily temporal scale from January 2016 to August 2019. Due to the complexity of the relationships as well as the distribution patterns of all independent variables, a series of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) based analytics, such as random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural net (ANN) regression, were used to model the PM2.5 at monthly and seasonal time scale spatially. All these AI/ML models were trained on 70% of the observations through a random selection. The remaining 30% of the data was used for evaluating the models’ performance. The performances of the models were then compared for both sets of experimental setups. The statistics for model performance diagnostic shows a higher R2 for RF-regression than other AI/ML regression models at the training stage under both sets of experimental setups (R2 ≥ 0.69 for Experiment Set 1; R2 ≤ 0.66 for Experiment Set 2 under RF regression; R2 ≤ 0.64 for other models under both experimental setups). The variable influence score (VIS) under RF-regression manifests that the proximity of wetlands is important than the variation of precipitation and LULC type (VIS: 4.12% for distance-to-wetlands, VIS: 2.61%, and 0.24% for precipitation and LULC type, respectively). The predictability of the RF-regression model, while evaluated with the test data, shows R2 ~ 0.66, with RMSE of 80.4 µg m-3 for the Experimental Set 1, and R2 ~ 0.63 with RMSE of 83.7 µg m-3 for the Experimental Set 2. It was noticed from the analysis that within a 1000 m buffer distance from the wetlands, the concentration of PM2.5 remains relatively lower than a distance greater than 1000 m. Such difference is benign, yet the key factor behind such a benign effect is related to the variation in surface area of the wetlands. Larger wetlands may have a distant impact on keeping the PM2.5 low. The study, thus, concludes that restoring the wetlands might be one of the practical solutions to keep the PM level within the ambit of NAAQ standards.  

How to cite: Acharya, P., Gayen, B. K., and Dutta, D.: Can wetlands be an effective option to reduce the particulate matter pollution in the air in urban spaces?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8380, 2022.

EGU22-8558 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Statistical modeling of fire brigade operations with respect to extreme precipitation events over Berlin 

Alexander Pasternack, Ines Langer, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Large cities and urban regions are highly sensitive to impacts caused by extreme meteorological events (e.g. heavy rainfall). As problems caused by hazardous atmospheric events are expected to intensify due to the anthropogenic climate change, planning of adequate adaptation measures for urban infrastructure is needed. Planning adaptation measures does not only require further research on potential impacts in a changing climate as a basis, but also a check of the practical feasibility for stakeholders. 

Under the BMBF research program “Urban Climate Under Change” ([UC]²), we relate heavy precipitation events over Berlin to the respective fire brigade operations. Here, the precipitation data are based on temporally high resolved radar data. The fire brigade operation data are available on time and location, but the number of recorded events is small, and their distribution is highly overdispersive compared to a Poisson model. To account for this problem we apply a two part hurdle model with one part modeling the probability of the occurrence of fire brigade operations and one part modeling the actual number of operations given that at least one operation occurs. In the corresponding statistical models the parameters of the distributions are described by additive predictors, which are based on precipitation duration and intensity as well as building density. With a fire brigade dataset covering the years 2002 - 2013 we already could show with a cross validation setup that both the occurrence model and the model for the number of operations significantly outperform the reference forecast of the climatology for certain areas over Berlin. For this study we are able to investigate the behaviour of both statistical models for an extended dataset including the years 2018 - 2020. Morevover we examine the effects of the orography as additional predictor on the statistical models, since sinks may have an importent influence on fire brigade operations w.r.t. water damage.

How to cite: Pasternack, A., Langer, I., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U.: Statistical modeling of fire brigade operations with respect to extreme precipitation events over Berlin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8558, 2022.

EGU22-8744 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Assessment of infrastructure-based reductions of future heat wave intensity with advanced mesoscale modelling 

E. Scott Krayenhoff, Timothy Jiang, Alberto Martilli, Christian Moede, and Matthias Demuzere

Future urban climates are likely to warm substantively in coming decades as a result of climate change, and greater heat wave severity is anticipated. Moreover, the urban heat island contributes additional heat, especially during evening and night. Infrastructure-based heat reduction strategies can reduce canopy air temperatures during daytime, and to some extent at night. These strategies also have several additional effects beyond air temperature reduction. Here, we apply an early coupling of the WRF mesoscale model with the BEP-Tree urban canopy model to simulate extreme heat events representative of both contemporary and projected future climates for the metropolitan region of Toronto, Canada. Urban and non-urban land cover is derived using the state-of-the-art LCZ Generator methodology. Subsequently, the effectiveness of heat mitigation strategies, including highly reflective surfaces and vegetation, is quantified for the future scenario in the context of the increase in heat wave intensity. Specifically, the neighbourhood- and city-scale climate impacts of street trees across the diurnal cycle are quantified, and the diurnal progression of their local climate effects is discussed with reference to their modifications to multiple physical processes in the canopy. Effects of all heat mitigation strategies on canopy climate, building energy use, and thermal comfort indices are evaluated.

How to cite: Krayenhoff, E. S., Jiang, T., Martilli, A., Moede, C., and Demuzere, M.: Assessment of infrastructure-based reductions of future heat wave intensity with advanced mesoscale modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8744, 2022.

EGU22-9195 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Observational and numerical evaluation of the pedestrian-level microclimatic effect of street trees in a highly-compact city 

Ricard Segura, Scott Krayenhoff, Alberto Martilli, Alba Badia, Carme Estruch, Sergi Ventura, and Gara Villalba

The application of nature-based solutions in urban areas to mitigate the harmful effects of urban overheating and to make cities more resilient to heat waves has gained the attention of city planners and researchers in the last decades. Street trees are an important driver of street microclimate through shadowing and transpiration cooling, which are key components in the improvements of thermal comfort. While several observational campaigns have been carried out in low and medium-density residential areas, little research has been focused in highly-compact city centres, where the impact of built elements on the local climate is expected to be stronger. In this context, Urban canopy models (UCM) with integrated trees are useful tools because they represent the impact of street trees on neighbourhood-scale climate, resolving the interactions between buildings, trees and the atmosphere. These models enable the assessment of outdoor human thermal exposure for diverse urban morphologies and allow the evaluation of greening scenarios.

In this study, we present the results of a micrometeorological measurement campaign inside the city of Barcelona (Spain) for two cloud-free summer days. Vehicle transects were completed along two parallel streets with different tree densities but identical street geometry, recording upward and downward radiation fluxes, air temperature and humidity. Assessment of urban tree impacts on microclimate is supplemented by meteorological simulations using the multi-layer UCM Building Effect Parameterization with Trees (BEP-Tree), which considers the vertical variation of the combined impacts of vegetation and building on urban canopy layer climate. Comparing observed pedestrian level air temperatures between the two canyons, we can see that the impact of tree densities varies with the regional weather, with air temperatures up to 2.7 oC higher in the street with low tree density compared to the one with denser trees for a day with the wind direction perpendicular to the direction of the streets. The BEP-Tree simulations demonstrate good agreement with the observations in terms of temperature and radiation, and they are able to capture the different diurnal evolution of temperature and radiation between the two streets.

How to cite: Segura, R., Krayenhoff, S., Martilli, A., Badia, A., Estruch, C., Ventura, S., and Villalba, G.: Observational and numerical evaluation of the pedestrian-level microclimatic effect of street trees in a highly-compact city, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9195, 2022.

EGU22-9654 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Daily mapping of global surface temperature reveals intensified local extremes of Surface Urban Heat Island 

Lorenzo Mentaschi, Grégory Duveiller, Grazia Zulian, Christina Corbane, Martino Pesaresi, Joachim Maes, Alessandro Stocchino, and Luc Feyen

Urban temperatures are generally higher in cities than in their non-urbanized surroundings, both during day and night. This phenomenon, known as the Urban Heat Island effect, represents a hazard, as it exacerbates heat-related illnesses and mortality. Its intensity can be estimated from remote sensing retrievals of Land Surface Temperature (LST), and in such conditions it is usually referred to as Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI). Past global studies analyzed this phenomenon in terms of urban and/or annual/seasonal means, but the impact on human health depend on short-term heat stress experienced locally. On the other hand, local studies are often performed on time-limited and not always representative empirical cases, employ different types of measurements and methodologies, making them difficult to intercompare. Moreover, they cover extensively a few developed areas, such as Northern America, Europe and Eastern Asia, leading to a knowledge gap with respect to less studied regions.

To fill this gap, here we developed a high resolution (1 km) dataset of observations of day and night SUHI based on 18 years of MODIS Aqua imagery, which offers an unprecedented insight into the short-time and short-range behavior of the Urban Heat Island. Our results show that 3-day SUHI extremes are on average more than twice as high as the warm-season median SUHI, with local exceedances up to 10 K, and with hotspots of intense heat and relatively cooler areas are clearly observable within the same city. Furthermore, over this period, SUHI extremes have increased more rapidly than warm-season medians, and averaged worldwide are now 1.04 K or 31% higher compared to 2003. This can be linked with increasing urbanization, more frequent heatwaves, and greening of the earth, processes that are all expected to continue in the coming decades.

These data provide clear evidence of the importance of high space-time resolution in studying the Urban Heat Island and the threat it poses. They can be used in a range of applications, from the day-by-day assessment of urban heat, to the calibration of models of the urban climate (Mentaschi et al., 2022).

 

References

Mentaschi, L., Duveiller, G., Zulian, G., Corbane, C., Pesaresi, M., Maes, J., Stocchino, A. and Feyen, L.: Global long-term mapping of surface temperature shows intensified intra-city urban heat island extremes, Glob. Environ. Chang., 72, 102441, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102441, 2022.

 

How to cite: Mentaschi, L., Duveiller, G., Zulian, G., Corbane, C., Pesaresi, M., Maes, J., Stocchino, A., and Feyen, L.: Daily mapping of global surface temperature reveals intensified local extremes of Surface Urban Heat Island, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9654, 2022.

EGU22-10206 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

An urban morphology clustering analysis to identify local heat hotspots in cities 

Birgit Sützl, Dominik Strebel, Andreas Rubin, Aytaç Kubilay, Yongling Zhao, and Jan Carmeliet

Heat stress in the urban environment is the result of complex interactions between the different components of the built environment and the atmosphere. Different surface materials, heterogeneity in size, shape, density and arrangement of buildings, all influence the transport and storage of heat. Due to this extensive parameter space, numerical simulations of the urban microclimate often revert to simplified parametric morphologies like urban street canyons. To be able to simulate heat mitigation measures in a more realistic set-up, this ongoing research project aims to identify typical building morphologies that are associated with higher outdoor temperatures than comparable neighbourhoods.

The study uses summer daytime surface temperatures from the Landsat 8 high-resolution satellite data, averaged over the years 2013 - 2021, to identify urban neighbourhoods with potential for high heat stress. The surface temperature data over the test city Zurich shows clear cooling effects from water bodies like rivers and lakes, medium- and large-scale vegetated areas, while extensive railway infrastructure and large outdoor sports facilities with artificial turf induce high surface temperatures. These effects are indicated by clear correlations between the surface temperature and parameters such as the impervious surface cover, vegetation cover, and sky view factor, calculated from building-resolved data at neighbourhood scale.

However, the impact of building form is less clear and requires further analysis. An ongoing investigation applies a clustering analysis with several morphological parameters (plan- and frontal area indices of buildings, mean and maximum height of buildings, etc.) to neighbourhoods with high surface temperature, that reveals typical morphology features of several distinct urban neighbourhoods. Representative building geometries can then be selected from these groups to study the adaptation of neighbourhoods to heat stress, as well as to learn lessons for densification and the design of new urban developments.

How to cite: Sützl, B., Strebel, D., Rubin, A., Kubilay, A., Zhao, Y., and Carmeliet, J.: An urban morphology clustering analysis to identify local heat hotspots in cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10206, 2022.

EGU22-11268 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Development of a web-mapping application for urban climate monitoring & research: experience from Moscow, Russia 

Mikhail Varentsov, Timofey Samsonov, Pavel Kargashin, Pavel Konstantinov, Anastasia Shurygina, and Yulia Yarinich

The problems of climate change, high-impact weather phenomena and human thermal comfort in urban areas nowadays receives more and more attention not only from urban scientific community, but also from professionals in related fields as well as from general public.

Today, publicly available weather-focused web services and applications experience rapid development and expansion. However, such services focused on urban climate are very rare and have limited usability. In this presentation, we share our experience in development of web-mapping application for urban climate monitoring & research for Moscow megacity in Russia. We aim to develop the web-application which provides observation-based evidence about current and historical weather conditions and human thermal comfort in Moscow region. Such application could be a valuable tool not only for urban climate researchers, but also for citizens planning their outdoor activity, weather and climate enthusiasts, weather-focused media, popularization of science, school and university education, etc.

Previously, we have developed a prototype of such web-mapping application, which collects and maps observations at official weather stations and crowdsourced observations at Netatmo citizen weather stations (Varentsov et al., 2020).  Application backend includes software for automated data collection, PostgreSQL database, data preprocessing tools (quality control for Netatmo data, spatial interpolation, simple model for on-the-fly calculations of Universal Thermal Climate Index representing human thermal comfort), GIS-server Geoserver for showing raster data. The application frontend is based on the OpenLayers web mapping library. The database is accessed by using the supplementary Node.js server application.

Current stage of development includes several new tasks. Firstly, we plan to increase the timespan of historical data available in the application by 2005-2022. Secondly, we plan to develop interactive tools for data analysis, including time series plots and temporal averaging. Finally, we plan to supplement the application by the catalogue of illustrative weather events, such as cases with intense urban heat island, extreme precipitation, and dangerous thermal stress, and to provide popular description of such cases. The recent version of web-application under development is available at http://carto.geogr.msu.ru/mosclim2/.

Acknowledgements: Development of web-application was supported by Russian Geographic Society under grant No. 03/2021-Р. Selection of intense precipitation cases for catalogue of illustrative weather events was supported by the grant of President of Russian Federation for young PhD scientists No. МК-5988.2021.1.5. Data analysis performed by Mikhail Varentsov was also funded by Non-commercial Foundation for the Advancement of Science and Education INTELLECT.

Reference: Varentsov M. I., Samsonov T. E., Kargashin P. E., Korosteleva P. A., Varentsov A. I., Perkhurova A. A., & Konstantinov P. I. (2020). Citizen weather stations data for monitoring applications and urban climate research: an example of Moscow megacity. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 611(1), 012055. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/611/1/012055

How to cite: Varentsov, M., Samsonov, T., Kargashin, P., Konstantinov, P., Shurygina, A., and Yarinich, Y.: Development of a web-mapping application for urban climate monitoring & research: experience from Moscow, Russia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11268, 2022.

EGU22-11416 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Modelling mean radiant temperature in complex urban areas using a convolutional network approach 

Ferdinand Briegel, Osama Makansi, Thomas Brox, Andreas Matzarakis, and Andreas Christen

We present a novel method to model spatial maps of mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) in complex urban areas using a special type of fully convolutional networks - U-Net - for image to image processing. Tmrt is one of the driving factors of daytime human thermal comfort and underlies great spatial and temporal variabilities, especially in complex urban areas. Various micro scale (building-resolving) models exist to model Tmrt in urban settings. However, these models are computational expensive, albeit to varying degrees. This means, study area and time might be limited depending on spatial and temporal resolution. While this is sufficient for case studies where micro-level processes are modelled for different neighbourhoods in limited time periods, accurate calculations over a long time period are not possible (e.g. downscaling global climate projections). To overcome these computational drawbacks of physical models, we present a U-net approach for modelling Tmrt in complex urban areas.

U-Nets are special types of encoder-decoder networks and allow precise image to image processing. In this study, Tmrt (at 1.1 m a.g.l.) is modelled by SOLWEIG model for 62 areas (500 x 500 m2) and on 54 days for the city of Freiburg, Germany. Training data is sampled randomly after clustering. The spatial and temporal input of SOLWEIG are in turn used as input features for the U-Net. The U-Net is trained on 56 areas and on 45 days and tested on the remaining areas and days. In addition, data from a Tmrt measurement campaign is used to validate SOLWEIG and U-Net model output.

Results indicate that the proposed U-Net approach is capable to provide Tmrt in complex urban areas sufficiently. A correlation of > 0.9 and a MAE of 1.53°C between SOLWEIG and the U-Net is observed. Results show a higher MAE during day than night, which can be partly explained by the difference of absolute Tmrt values at day and night, but also by more complex prediction conditions during day: cloud cover and thus varying radiation, but also low sun angle in the morning / evening. In addition, computing times for Tmrt map predictions are significantly faster than physical models. 

How to cite: Briegel, F., Makansi, O., Brox, T., Matzarakis, A., and Christen, A.: Modelling mean radiant temperature in complex urban areas using a convolutional network approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11416, 2022.

EGU22-11468 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Characterising the vertical structure of buildings for use in atmospheric models 

Megan Stretton, Robin Hogan, and Sue Grimmond

Urban schemes in weather and climate models often characterise urban structures in a grid cell using the mean building height and street width. This does not capture the sub-grid vertical variability that impacts fluxes. The vertical distribution of wall area and building heights are ideally required but are often unavailable in cities globally. In this work, building footprint and height data from six cities are used to parameterise the geometry with varying levels of detail of input data.

We conclude the vertical distribution of buildings can be parameterised using a function of mean building height and surface building plan area. Comparisons of the parameterised building plan area fraction with height to ‘true’ data (2 km x 2 km resolution) show 90% of the profiles have bias errors (BE) of < 0.03 (‘true’ values are: 0.05 – 0.55).

Building horizontal size (or effective building diameter, D) has a six-city mean of ~21 m. As D is impacted by normalised building edge length and building plan area, we use it to parameterise building edge length. The derived D parameterisations have normalised BE (nBE) < 16%, but without total wall area as an input the nBE increases to 26%.

The combined parameterisations are used with the radiative transfer model SPARTACUS-Urban to simulate total absorption of shortwave (SW) radiation and effective SW albedo. The latter is impacted 2-10% (cf. simulations using ‘true’ data). Larger errors occur when simulating  within-canyon absorption fluxes. Larger errors also occur when fewer morphology inputs are used, with total wall area having the most benefit.

We conclude urban vertical variability can be acceptably characterised for numerical weather prediction using three parameters: surface building plan area, mean building height, and effective building diameter.

How to cite: Stretton, M., Hogan, R., and Grimmond, S.: Characterising the vertical structure of buildings for use in atmospheric models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11468, 2022.

EGU22-11749 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

A country scale assessment of the heat hazard-risk in the urban areas of Romania 

Sorin Cheval, Alexandru Dumitrescu, Adrian Irașoc, Monica-Gabriela Paraschiv, Vlad Amihăesei, and Darren Ghent

Heat-related hazards pose major risks to our cities and the projected climate changes indicate substantial increases in impacts, and a better understanding of the interactions between environmental changes and human health are particularly critical for improving the living quality in urban areas in the climate change context. The considerable progress of monitoring, modelling, and analysing methods has addressed the increasing demand for enhanced accuracy, finer resolution, and better accessibility of climate products and services, including the specific needs of the built-up areas.

This study informs the present Heat Hazard-Risk (HHR) over the 262 cities of Romania using a risk matrix approach that aggregates the hazard triggered by high temperatures (i.e. Land Surface Temperature), and elements of vulnerability associated with the structure (i.e. Local Climate Zones - LCZ), and population density (i.e. number of inhabitants per 100 m2 in each urban area).

The MODIS LST_cci products used in this study are customised TERRA_MODIS_L3C and AQUA_MODIS_L3C daily day/night 0.01° resolution data on an equal angle latitude/longitude data over Romania produced within the project LST_cci+ (CCI Land Surface Temperature, 2020), and covering the period 2000-2018. The LCZ values were extracted from a European database characterizing the urbanised landscapes derived within the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project. The population density was retrieved from the Joint Research Centre (JRC) database.

Generally, the HHR is higher in the central parts of the cities, but industrial and residential areas contribute to high-risk values towards the marginal perimeters too. The size and the industrial profile of a city impact the extent of the heat risk. For example, the biggest cities in the southern areas hold the most extended areas at risk at the country level. The land cover is a significant factor that controls the thermal hazard risk in the urban areas of Romania: the highest HHR values correspond to the discontinuous urban fabric, industrial and commercial units, and construction sites, while the lowest values stand for the urban forest, and water bodies.

This study has received funding from the European Space Agency (ESA) within the framework of the Land Surface Temperature project under the Climate Change Initiative (LST_cci), contract number 4000123553/18/I-NB.

How to cite: Cheval, S., Dumitrescu, A., Irașoc, A., Paraschiv, M.-G., Amihăesei, V., and Ghent, D.: A country scale assessment of the heat hazard-risk in the urban areas of Romania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11749, 2022.

EGU22-12117 | Presentations | CL3.2.1 | Highlight

Case study simulation of the green infrastructure influence on heat stress with urban climate model PALM-4U 

Alexander Reinbold, Dirk Pavlik, Martina Schubert-Frisius, Claas Teichmann, Antonina Kriuger, and Jörg Cortekar

City planners have to take multiple considerations and prospective issues into account when an urban area is to be developed. Especially in the cities, the heat island effect and the high population density combine to a health threat during heatwaves. Climate change exacerbates this heat stress and continues to do so for decades – a time scale relevant in urban planning. The increasing necessity to include urban climate adaption measures requires valid arguments for the decision-making process where they are in competition with other use of scarce urban space.

Urban climate models are a tool for assessments of the heat stress, wind comfort, the dispersion of pollutants and others – be it already built or only a proposed plan. The high-performance LES model PALM allows for modelling the atmospheric boundary layer from a whole-city level to a block of houses in resolutions up to 2 m. The model system PALM-4U can be adapted to the assessment question of interest by activating modules like urban surfaces. This incorporates, for example, urban green infrastructure from trees to façade greenery in the simulation. 

In this presentation, we show an application case for the model PALM-4U to assess a common planning question taken from municipal practice. The simulations investigate the impact of a high degree of green and blue infrastructure compared to a low degree in the plans of a development area. Climate adaption measures like façade greening, replacement of pavement with grass and ponds are evaluated in their cumulative effect on thermal comfort indices PT, PET and UTCI.

These simulations are part of the research project “ProPolis” that seeks to bridge the gap between science and practice in urban climate modelling by operationalizing PALM-4U into a practicable and user-friendly tool tailored towards the needs of municipalities and urban planners. ProPolis is part of the research and development program “Urban Climate Under Change [UC]²” funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

How to cite: Reinbold, A., Pavlik, D., Schubert-Frisius, M., Teichmann, C., Kriuger, A., and Cortekar, J.: Case study simulation of the green infrastructure influence on heat stress with urban climate model PALM-4U, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12117, 2022.

The continuous heat release over cities/urban areas during night owing to urban heat island effect causes turbulent mixing and sustained supply of moisture and cloud condensation nuclei to the boundary layer. This sustained supply of moisture helps in persistence of low-level clouds over these urban areas as compared to rural/suburban areas during night. The various dynamical process including cloud formation, transport and dispersion of moisture and pollutant at boundary level at night time is highly influenced by the nocturnal low-level jets .These nocturnal low-level jets are found to be stronger over urban . These low-level jets are associated with high vertical wind shear production which enhances the turbulent mixing below boundary layer and plays a critical role in formation of nocturnal stratus clouds. In this study we have identified the vertical location of low-level jets using radiosonde data.  We get two peak for the frequency of occurrence of low-level jets, first at around 500-1000 m (boundary-level jets) and another at 1500 m altitude for winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We have also shown the diurnal (morning and evening) variation in the low-level jet frequency for these four seasons. The measurements from radiosonde in this study are taken at 05:30 am Local time (00:00 UTC) and 5:30 pm (12:00 UTC). We have also identified the types of clouds classified on the basis of number of layers over the study areas and associated it with the occurrence of low-level jets.

How to cite: Sharma, S. and Mishra, A. K.: Occurrence of low-level jets and multi-layer clouds over various urban agglomerations located in Indo-Gangetic Plain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12345, 2022.

EGU22-12446 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Simulation of thermal conditions in Augsburg, Southern Germany, using PALM-4U 

Annette Straub, Christoph Beck, and Andreas Philipp

Within the scope of the research project “Strategies for Reduction of Critical Urban Climate Load Situations in Augsburg” (MIKA), which is part of the research programme "Urban Climate Under Change” [UC2], the LES model PALM-4U is applied in the medium-sized city of Augsburg, Southern Germany. As a first aim of the project, simulations with focus on air temperature have been performed. The simulations cover a large part of the city and its surroundings (approx. 8x6 km), and two areas of special interest are resolved in more detail. Meteorological boundary conditions are provided by the COSMO-D2 model. Two different summer days have been selected for the simulations. One day has anticyclonic conditions, is part of a heat wave and, thus, thermal stress is expected in the city. The other day, which serves as a reference day, has moderate temperatures and more mixed conditions than the day with heat stress. Furthermore, it is part of an intense observation period (IOP), which means that vertical profiles of air temperature and humidity have been measured at different sites in the city each hour with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) accompanied by mobile measurements with a bicycle. This is favourable for evaluating the model results.

This contribution presents some first results of the evaluation and comparison of these two PALM-4U simulations.

How to cite: Straub, A., Beck, C., and Philipp, A.: Simulation of thermal conditions in Augsburg, Southern Germany, using PALM-4U, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12446, 2022.

EGU22-12683 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Turbulent transfer and concentration statistics in a street canyon with tree planting 

Sofia Fellini, Annika Vittoria Del Ponte, Marilina Barulli, Luca Ridolfi, Lionel Soulhac, Massimo Marro, and Pietro Salizzoni

The exacerbation of the urban heat island due to global warming poses a serious risk to the health of citizens. Furthermore, the alteration of the urban microclimate affects air quality with an expected increase in the concentrations of harmful pollutants. Greening cities is an effective tool to mitigate these effects. However, the effect of tree planting in urban street canyons is still a debated topic. Despite their positive effect on temperature and their filtering action, trees can hinder air circulation thus limiting pollutant removal processes. In this context, it is essential to understand and model the effect of trees on the ventilation of street pollutants, heat and moisture . To this end, we present in this work the results of an experimental campaign conducted in a wind tunnel. An urban geometry with a street canyon perpendicular to the wind direction was reproduced. A linear source of passive scalar simulated the emission of pollutants from vehicular traffic. Reduced scale trees have been conceived to mimic a realistic aerodynamic behaviour. We investigated four different configurations of vegetation density: a street with no trees, two trees in the middle of the street, two rows of scattered trees and two dense rows of trees. Concentration and velocity measurements were performed in order to characterize the transfer processes of pollutants inside the street and to estimate a bulk vertical exchange rate. Results show that the presence of trees alters the concentration field in the street with a progressive shift from a nearly two-dimensional to a three-dimensional field. Despite the significant spatial variation in concentration, the presence of trees does not alter the overall efficiency of the ventilation as the vertical bulk exchange velocity remains almost constant in the different configurations. The statistical analysis of the turbulent concentration signal gives other insights in the transfer processes. The turbulent signal measured in different positions of the cavity and for different tree density follows a Gamma distribution with constant fluctuation intensity suggesting an almost universal behaviour within the canyon and providing a powerful modelling tool. Finally, combined measurements of concentration and velocity allows to measure the turbulent mass fluxes at the roof height and investigate their spectrum therefore enlightening the effect of trees on typical scales of motion.

How to cite: Fellini, S., Del Ponte, A. V., Barulli, M., Ridolfi, L., Soulhac, L., Marro, M., and Salizzoni, P.: Turbulent transfer and concentration statistics in a street canyon with tree planting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12683, 2022.

EGU22-12883 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

High-resolution WRF-BEP+BEM modelling of urban heat island and urban pollution island effects for Minsk, Belarus with different approaches to urban morphology representation 

Siarhei Barodka, Tsimafei Schlender, Natallia Darozhka, Ilya Bruchkouski, Aleh Baravik, Milvari Alieva, Natalia Zhukovskaya, Yauheniya Yarash, Maksim Birukou, and Tatsiana Tabalchuk

This study is devoted to analysis of Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Urban Pollution Island (UPI) effects in Minsk, Belarus by means of high-resolution atmospheric urban modelling. We present first results of our implementation of the WRF-BEP+BEM modelling system for Minsk with two different approaches to urban morphology: one involving the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) methodology and the other being based on direct representation of urban parameters on the model grid. For that purpose, we combine satellite remote sensing data with geoinformation systems (GIS), centralized city planning databases and Open Street Maps (OSM) vector data to implement description of land use / land cover for Minsk urban territory and the surrounding area along with a representation of buildings data and other urban parameters with a level of detail necessary for high resolution modelling (500 m, 300 m and 100 m grids). Different configurations of the WRF-BEP+BEM modelling system are then used to perform a series of  simulations involving various meteorological conditions over Minsk, Belarus to investigate manifestations of the UHI and UPI effects. In modelling results validation special emphasis is made on analysis of surface temperature parameters and near-surface atmospheric circulation, the latter being important for atmospheric pollutants transport in the urban area. For validation, we use observational data of surface temperature, wind fields and atmospheric pollution from ground-based measurements (including both regular meteorological stations and crowdsourced data from citizen weather stations) and satellite remote sensing for Minsk urban area and the surrounding region. Analysis results reveal the degree of applicability of each approach to urban morphology representation in WRF-BEP+BEM for Minsk and similar urban territories on high-resolution modelling grids.

How to cite: Barodka, S., Schlender, T., Darozhka, N., Bruchkouski, I., Baravik, A., Alieva, M., Zhukovskaya, N., Yarash, Y., Birukou, M., and Tabalchuk, T.: High-resolution WRF-BEP+BEM modelling of urban heat island and urban pollution island effects for Minsk, Belarus with different approaches to urban morphology representation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12883, 2022.

EGU22-13150 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Air pollution measurements during commuting in Lyon 

Cosimo Peruzzi, Marie Ramel-Delobel, Thomas Coudon, Béatrice Fervers, Saverio De Vito, Grazia Fattoruso, and Pietro Salizzoni

Air pollution is a dramatic issue that grips the majority of densely populated cities in the world. It is nowadays quite evident that there is a relationship between air quality and some types of cancers (i.e. lung and bladder cancer), as reported by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC 2012). Although the time spent commuting usually represents a small portion of a person's daily time (3-6%), it is responsible around for 21% of daily personal exposure and roughly 30% of the total inhaled dose (Dons et al. 2012). To gain information on this topic, we conducted an air quality measurement campaign (six weeks between November and December 2021) on three different routes within the metropolitan city of Lyon (France). These routes were chosen to be representative of different urban areas (e.g. city centre, periphery, vegetated areas). The measurements were taken two times for day (i.e. in the morning and the evening, in order to simulate the commuters round trip) using four different modes (walk, bike, car and public transport). Two different portable air quality sensors were used to measure the pollutants: the MONICA sensors (developed by ENEA, De Vito et al. 2021) that measure PM1, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, CO and O3 and the AirBeam 2 sensors (provided by ATMO AURA) that measure only the particular matters. The objective of this study is twofold: from one side to assess the exposure choosing different modes of commuting and, from the other side, to evaluate how the influence of the meteorological-climatic variables (e.i. temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, cloud cover, solar radiation and atmospheric boundary layer stability/instability) affect the air quality. Preliminary results show that private car users are generally affected by lower levels of air pollution with respect to the other modes (as expected, Okokon et al. 2017), but this is strongly influenced by the type of ventilation used (internal or external air recirculation, open and closed windows). 

 

Reference

De Vito, S., Esposito, E., Massera, E., Formisano, F., Fattoruso, G., Ferlito, S., ... & Di Francia, G. (2021). Crowdsensing IoT Architecture for Pervasive Air Quality and Exposome Monitoring: Design, Development, Calibration, and Long-Term Validation. Sensors21(15), 5219.

Dons, E., Panis, L. I., Van Poppel, M., Theunis, J., & Wets, G. (2012). Personal exposure to black carbon in transport microenvironments. Atmospheric Environment55, 392-398.

IARC Working Group on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans. (2012). Chemical agents and related occupations. IARC monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risks to humans100, 9–562.

Okokon, E. O., Yli-Tuomi, T., Turunen, A. W., Taimisto, P., Pennanen, A., Vouitsis, I., ... & Lanki, T. (2017). Particulates and noise exposure during bicycle, bus and car commuting: A study in three European cities. Environmental Research154, 181-189.

How to cite: Peruzzi, C., Ramel-Delobel, M., Coudon, T., Fervers, B., De Vito, S., Fattoruso, G., and Salizzoni, P.: Air pollution measurements during commuting in Lyon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13150, 2022.

EGU22-13410 | Presentations | CL3.2.1

Differences between surface and air urban heat island for clear sky conditions in Iasi city (Romania) and their relation with atmospheric circulation 

Lucian Sfica, Claudiu Cretu, Pavel Ichim, Iuliana-Gabriela Breaban, and Robert Hritac

The increasing accessibility to high resolution land surface temperature (LST) data unbalances recently the investigation of the urban heat island (UHI) towards approaches based on these remote sensing tools. However, for a holistic assessment of UHI, a need of comparison of the resulted surface urban heat island (SUHI) with the air urban heat island(AUHI) remains of great interest. In our study we respond to this demand by taking to account all the MODIS LST images and their corresponding synchronous air temperature observations from 9 in-situ monitoring points evenly distributed over the city of Iași for 2013-2020. This way, using a total of 2901 satellite images, the main diurnal and seasonal characteristics of clear-sky SUHI have been outlined for Iași city.

The results obtained describe accurately the intensity of the SUHI, but also its relation with the urban land use categories. During summer season in daytime the spatial extent of SUHI reaches its maximum, SUHI being bounded by the 35°C isotherm in direct relation with the highest imperviousness ratio. In the winter season instead, SUHI is almost absent during the day especially due to the high frequency of temperature inversions in this area. Also, the geometry of SUHI tends to be compact and regular during the nighttime and more irregular during the daytime, as a result of the higher and more complex energy input.

The comparison with the in-situ observations indicates that the differences between SUHI and AUHI are highest during the daytime in spring and summer, when LST is 5 to 7°C higher than the air temperature in classical sheltered conditions, while during winter no major difference can be observed. For the nighttime the LST is 1 to 3°C lower than air conditions regardles of the seasons. The analysis is detailed with the influence of land use categories and imperviousness ratio on SUHI, but also on the difference between SUHI and AUHI. As well, using a k-means atmospheric circulation classification we identified the weather patterns that are capable to increase both the SUHI intensity, and the difference between SUHI and AUHI.

How to cite: Sfica, L., Cretu, C., Ichim, P., Breaban, I.-G., and Hritac, R.: Differences between surface and air urban heat island for clear sky conditions in Iasi city (Romania) and their relation with atmospheric circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13410, 2022.

EGU22-4362 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Emissions consistent with halting global warming 

Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Thomas Froelicher, and Pierre Friedlingstein

The IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C (SR1.5)[i] stated “Reaching and sustaining net-zero global anthropogenic CO2 emissions and declining net non-CO2 radiative forcing would halt anthropogenic global warming on multi-decadal timescales (high confidence)”, implying that net zero CO2 emissions and declining non-CO2 forcing was a sufficient condition for any ongoing global warming to be indistinguishable from natural climate variability on interdecadal timescales. The IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6)[ii] went much further: “limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions”, implying that net-zero CO2 emissions was a necessary condition for reducing the ongoing rate of global warming to zero. We discuss interpretations of these statements in the context of a policy environment focussed on the coming century, rather than multi-century timescales. We show that two quantities are important in determining the CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing consistent with halting global warming: the Rate of Adjustment to Constant Forcing (RACF), or the fraction rate of global warming over the decades following forcing stabilisation, and the Rate of Adjustment to Zero Emissions (RAZE), or the RACF minus the centennial rate of CO2 forcing decline after CO2 emissions reach net zero. We use results from the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project to show that the best-estimate value of the RAZE is close to zero, possibly negative at low warming levels, with a range of uncertainty that straddles zero. Hence the evidence currently available suggests only that achieving net zero or net negative CO2 emissions is as likely as not required to halt CO2-induced warming on interdecadal timescales. That said, it is virtually certain that any residual emission consistent with no further warming would be an order of magnitude lower than current emission rates and within the uncertainty of CO2 sources and sinks in the second half of this century.

[i] Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, et al: Global Warming of 1.5°C, IPCC, 2018

[ii] IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021, the Physical Science Basis [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, et al (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press (2021).

How to cite: Allen, M., Jenkins, S., Froelicher, T., and Friedlingstein, P.: Emissions consistent with halting global warming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4362, 2022.

EGU22-4419 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Is there still a case for Carbon Takeback or Carbon Removal Obligations in a world of low renewable energy costs? 

Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Matthew Ives, and Margriet Kuijper

Upstream regulatory measures to require fossil fuel producers and importers to pay for carbon dioxide capture and disposal, such as the Carbon Removal Obligation (CRO, Bednar et al, 2021) or Carbon Takeback Obligation (CTBO, Jenkins et al, 2021), provide a potentially valuable "backstop" mitigation policy if demand-side measures fail to reduce emissions fast enough to meet climate goals. But what if renewable energy costs fall much faster than envisaged in the current generation of integrated assessment models? Would these upstream measures then result in a substantial investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS, encompassing both direct-air and point-source capture) that is subsequently stranded because it is not needed? We explore the implications of ultra-low renewable energy costs under an idealised global CTBO regime and argue that over-building mitigation capacity is unlikely given current trends and in any case would represent a sensible precautionary investment. The risk of stranding of CCS capacity is directly linked to the long-term cost of both CCS and the extraction costs of fossil fuels, reinforcing the case for delivering CCS through obligations on the fossil fuel extraction industry in order to align incentives and ensure that those who benefit most from continued use of fossil fuels also shoulder the risks associated with the transition.

How to cite: Allen, M., Jenkins, S., Ives, M., and Kuijper, M.: Is there still a case for Carbon Takeback or Carbon Removal Obligations in a world of low renewable energy costs?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4419, 2022.

EGU22-4441 | Presentations | CL3.2.2 | Highlight

Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under zero and negative emissions. 

Jörg Schwinger, Ali Asaadi, Nadine Goris, and Hanna Lee

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports large amount of heat northwards, where this heat contributes to warm the atmosphere. It is well established that an AMOC collapse, or strong reduction would substantially cool the northern high latitudes. New Earth system model (ESM) simulations indicate the possibility that such cooling, due to the large inertia of the climate system, could also happen when CO2 emissions are phased out after AMOC has been weakened by preceding climate change. Our simulations show a temporally and spatially strongly variable zero emission commitment (ZEC), which is first negative (up to -0.4K) and then turns positive (up to 0.5K) as AMOC recovers. Regionally, the strongest cooling-warming pattern is found in the northern high latitudes north of 40°N, where the amplitude of this cycle can exceed several degrees. The mechanism of this cooling can be understood by the fact that the radiative forcing of CO2 is reduced when emissions become zero while the Earth system is in a state of reduced northward heat transport. We further show that this northern high-latitude cooling could be amplified under deliberate CO2 removal and result in a temporary undershoot of a targeted temperature level. Such “stronger than intended” cooling north of 40°N under net negative emissions is a robust feature of Earth system models that show a strong AMOC decline in response to warming, both in idealized simulations but also in an overshoot scenario created for CMIP6 by an integrated assessment model. The future fate of ocean circulation is highly uncertain in ESM projections, and the amplified northern high latitude cooling under zero or net negative emissions is a feature of ESMs with a high sensitivity of AMOC to warming. Nevertheless, or results underscore (i) the importance of understanding the physical climate system’s response to phasing out emissions to avoid surprises, (ii) the importance of coordinated experimentation with ESMs such as CMIP6 ZECMIP and CDRMIP, and finally (iii) the importance of assessing zero and net negative emissions beyond simple metrics like global mean surface temperature. 

How to cite: Schwinger, J., Asaadi, A., Goris, N., and Lee, H.: Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under zero and negative emissions., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4441, 2022.

EGU22-4527 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Ageing Society in Developed Countries Challenges Carbon Mitigation 

Heran Zheng, Yin Long, Richard Wood, Daniel Moran, Zhengkai Zhang, Jing Meng, Kuishuang Feng, Edgar Hertwich, and Dabo Guan

Western countries are ageing, meaning a larger proportion of their citizens will be of senior age (60+) in the years ahead. However, the impacts of the lifestyles of these senior-aged people on global carbon mitigation are poorly understood. Here, we quantify the evolution of greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints driven by household consumption across age groups. We found that the senior-aged group has played a leading role in driving up GHG emissions in the past decade. The senior age group in most of the 32 developed countries studied was on the way to becoming the largest contributor to those countries’ GHG emissions, with their shares of the national total consumption-based emissions increasing from 25.2% to 32.7% between 2005 and 2015. The seniors in the US and Australia have the highest per capita footprints, twice the Western average. The trend was mainly due to the changes in expenditure patterns of seniors, such as high expenditure on carbon-intensive products (e.g. heating and cooling larger home area per capita). The high level of spending of seniors was strongly supported by their accumulated wealth. However, their wealth elasticity of expenditure is lower than other age groups, suggesting the consumption pattern may have a relatively small change while their wealth is gradually shrinking. The increasing carbon footprints of senior citizens is likely to drive the domestic production due to their higher share of expenditure for shelter energy and food products, thus having limited effects on international carbon leakage. The demographic change poses more challenges in local mitigation and calls for deeper public mitigation efforts, especially for the US.

How to cite: Zheng, H., Long, Y., Wood, R., Moran, D., Zhang, Z., Meng, J., Feng, K., Hertwich, E., and Guan, D.: Ageing Society in Developed Countries Challenges Carbon Mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4527, 2022.

EGU22-4748 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

What are the Maximally Possible Deviations from the Carbon Budget Approach?  

Vito Avakumović, Victor Brovkin, and Hermann Held

The carbon budget concept (TCRE; Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions) emerged as a major concept in climate research since the late 2000s. Due to its simplicity, it is intensively utilized in the international policy arena. It is based on the claim that one can derive the global mean temperature increase solely from the knowledge of historical cumulative emissions by observing the linear relationship between the two, regardless of the emission pathway that preceded ('pathway independence').

Here, we ask for the maximally possible deviations from the TCRE ideal across emission scenario space. While there has been an extensive focus on quantifying the carbon budget using highly complex climate models, there seems to be a lesser focus on the pathway independence and possibly related deviations from the budget. Furthermore, few analytical examinations have been presented, for highly stylized settings only. This study contributes to filling that gap, utilizing the energy balance model FAIR. FAIR incorporates climate feedbacks and correctly emulates the temperature response to an emission pulse.

If the carbon budget approach was perfectly valid, the temperature response to an emitted unit of carbon should be a perfect step function. The actual temperature evolution following the emission pulse is reinterpreted as a Green's function and as such, utilized to calculate the total temperature increase at any given point. The novelty in this work is that the emission pathway is not assumed, but generated by maximizing (minimizing) the temperature output.

With the boundary conditions being the fixed total cumulative emissions and the maximal allowed mitigation efforts, two associated pathways are generated with the temperature increase in a given year acting as an objective value. The deviation from the budget is then extracted as a temperature difference between the upper and the lower bound of the optimization process. The results show that the absolute value of the deviation is less than the standard deviation of climate variability, confirming the fundamentals of the carbon budget approach. We also present an analytical upper bound of the deviation from path independence. The result shows that the deviation is a function of the allowed maximum emission slope.

The advantage of this method is that it can utilize the impulse response properties already published for highly complex models. The current limitation of the presented approach lies in the assumption that the pulse response is assumed constant even though the climate changes. The implications of a changing pulse remain to be explored. We see our work as a twofold contribution: (i) to predict maximally possible TCRE deviations from already published impulse response experiments, and (ii), to generate analytic understanding for the driving variables.

How to cite: Avakumović, V., Brovkin, V., and Held, H.: What are the Maximally Possible Deviations from the Carbon Budget Approach? , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4748, 2022.

EGU22-6410 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Mitigation scenarios for methane and nitrous oxide emissions from Indian agriculture sector 

Omkar Patange, Pallav Purohit, Zbigniew Klimont, Amit Garg, and Vidhee Avashia

India is now the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the world with one of the highest growth-rate of emissions. As a fast-growing major economy, its future emissions trajectory is important for the long-term global goal of restricting the temperature rise to “well below 2 ℃”, compared to pre-industrial levels. In India, emissions from methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) account for about a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions. The agriculture sector contributes to over 70% of these non-CO2 emissions through activities like rice cultivation, livestock rearing (enteric fermentation and manure management) and application of nitrogen fertilizers. On the other hand, the agriculture sector employs two-third of Indian work force. Around 86% farmers fall in the marginal and small (less than 2 hectares) land-holding category and collectively own about 45% of the total agricultural area and around 80% of total cattle. Considering the socio-economic context, reducing emissions from Indian agricultural sector would be a challenge. The subsistence farming, fragmented production and political economy constraints make it difficult to implement the technological and structural interventions to mitigate the non-CO2 emissions. If India is to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in the latter half of the century, mitigation strategies for the agriculture sector need to balance the climate and sustainable development goals.

In this research, we focus on methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the Indian agricultural activities. Our analysis uses the GAINS model which has been widely applied for assessing the mitigation strategies for non-CO2 emissions and multiple air pollutants at regional and global scales. We analyse four mitigation scenarios using different combinations of activities and control measures. For the reference and sustainable policy scenarios, we compare the current policies (often lacking any controls) versus maximum feasible reductions through technological and management control measures to inform the Indian and global climate policy debates. The preliminary results suggest that a combination of sustainable agricultural practices and control measures could reduce the CH4 and N2O emissions by about 30% by 2050 as compared to the reference scenario. This would also contribute to the reduction of ammonia emissions with considerable co-benefits for local air quality and health.

How to cite: Patange, O., Purohit, P., Klimont, Z., Garg, A., and Avashia, V.: Mitigation scenarios for methane and nitrous oxide emissions from Indian agriculture sector, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6410, 2022.

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driven by a combination of climate mitigation and air quality efforts, as well as continued industrialization. While this fact is well appreciated at the global level, the complex and diverse regional responses to changes in atmospheric aerosol loadings are still largely neglected in the tools and metrics currently used in policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risks - including the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. 

There is now comprehensive evidence that regional changes in aerosol emissions can drive significant trends in temperature and hydroclimate, at the local to the global scale. Locally, they can dominate over trends induced by global surface warming. Notably, this is true at lower latitudes, meaning that currently under-resourced and highly populated regions are disproportionately exposed to aerosol induced climate hazards and societal impacts. Neglecting or oversimplifying regional aerosol effects, whether near to the emission sources or remotely, in near-term climate risk assessments therefore constitutes a blindspot in society’s ability to adapt to and prepare for future climate change. 

In this talk, we summarize the status of research into the regionally heterogeneous effects of aerosol emissions, in light of ongoing and expected near-term emission changes, and how they modulate climate risks along near-zero GHG trajectories. We also outline a potential pathway towards progress – in particular identifying urgently needed interaction between the aerosol research and impact, risk, and scenario development communities.

How to cite: Samset, B. H., Persad, G., and Wilcox, L.: Rapidly evolving anthropogenic aerosol emissions induce strong and regionally heterogeneous climate impacts on the way to a net-zero world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6910, 2022.

EGU22-7180 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

High-sensitivity Earth System Models Most Consistent with Observations 

Menghan Yuan, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo, Peter Phillips, Kari Alterskjær, and Christopher Smith

Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) quantifies the global mean surface air temperature change due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, at the time of doubling. TCR is highly correlated with near-term climate projections, and thus of utmost relevance for climate policy, but remains poorly constrained. Within state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the TCR range (1.1 -2.9oC is much too wide to offer useful guidance to policymakers on remaining carbon budgets aligneded with the Paris agreement goals. To address this issue, we here present an observation-based TCR estimate of 1.9-2.7oC (95% confidence interval). We show that this method correctly diagnoses TCR from 22 CMIP6 ESMs if the same variables are taken from the ESMs as are available from observations. This increases confidence in the new estimate and range, which are higher and narrower, respectively, than those of the CMIP6 ensemble.

How to cite: Yuan, M., Leirvik, T., Storelvmo, T., Phillips, P., Alterskjær, K., and Smith, C.: High-sensitivity Earth System Models Most Consistent with Observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7180, 2022.

EGU22-7662 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Coupled Model Simulations of Carbon Dioxide Removal via Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement and Large-scale Afforestation and Reforestation 

Hao-wei Wey, Tronje Kemena, David Keller, and Andreas Oschlies

All Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) of future climate scenarios that are well below 2 °C warming require the application of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. While the mitigation potentials of different CDR methods have been proposed, the climate impacts have only been studied to a limited extent with the Earth System Models (ESMs). As part of the CDR Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP), we utilize here the land-ocean-atmosphere coupled FOCI-MOPS model to study the potential reversibility and impacts of different proposed CDR methods. FOCI-MOP is an integration of the marine biogeochemical model, Model of Oceanic Pelagic Stoichiometry (MOPS), in the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI) ESM. Two CDR methods are studied under highly-idealized scenarios: a marine-based CDR of ocean alkalinity enhancement, and a land-based CDR of afforestation and reforestation, given their large theoretical mitigation potentials. In both experiments, the CDR methods are applied under the high CO2 emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). In the experiment of ocean alkalinity enhancement, alkalinity is added to ice-free ocean at a rate of roughly 0.14 petamole per year. In the experiment of afforestation and reforestation, the land use follows the scenario with high levels of afforestation and reforestation (SSP1-2.6). We look into the efficiency and the side-effects of CDR methods. In addition, we investigate whether the hysteresis behavior exists as well as the non-reversible aspects of the applied CDR, including ocean deoxygenation as well as the respective impacts on both terrestrial and marine primary production. Finally, as models are largely different in their structures and representations of terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, we compare our results to results from other models participating in CDRMIP for assessing the modeling uncertainty. The results presented here are helpful for a more realistic application of CDR portfolio and provide insights on a mitigation pathway toward a net-zero world in the future.

How to cite: Wey, H., Kemena, T., Keller, D., and Oschlies, A.: Coupled Model Simulations of Carbon Dioxide Removal via Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement and Large-scale Afforestation and Reforestation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7662, 2022.

EGU22-8836 | Presentations | CL3.2.2 | Highlight

Temporary nature-based carbon removal can lower peak warming in a well-below 2°C scenario 

H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Mitchell Dickau, Alexander MacIsaac, Sabine Mathesius, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Amy Luers

There is growing recognition that meeting the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement will require the world to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions around or before mid-century. Nature-based climate solutions (NbCS), which aim to preserve and enhance carbon storage in terrestrial or aquatic ecosystems, are increasingly being evoked as a potential contributor to net-zero emissions targets. However, there is a risk that any carbon that we succeed in storing in land-based systems could be subsequently lost back to the atmosphere as a result of either climate-related or human-caused disturbances such as wildfire or deforestation. Here we quantify the climate effect of NbCS in a scenario where land-based carbon storage is enhanced over the next several decades, and this stored carbon is then returned to the atmosphere during the second half of this century. We show that temporary carbon sequestration has the potential to decrease the peak temperature increase, but only if implemented alongside an ambitious mitigation scenario where fossil fuel CO2 emissions were decreased to net-zero during the time that NbCS-sequestered carbon remained stored. We also demonstrate the importance of non-CO2 climate effects of NbCS implementation; decreases in surface albedo that result from temporary reforestation, for example, have the potential to counter almost half of the climate effect of carbon sequestration. Our results suggest that there is some climate benefit associated with NbCS, even if the carbon storage is temporary, but only if implemented as a complement (and not an alternative) to ambitious fossil fuel CO2 emissions reductions.

How to cite: Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Dickau, M., MacIsaac, A., Mathesius, S., Nzotungicimpaye, C.-M., and Luers, A.: Temporary nature-based carbon removal can lower peak warming in a well-below 2°C scenario, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8836, 2022.

EGU22-10398 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach the Paris Agreement temperature targets 

Jens Terhaar, Thomas Frölicher, Mathias Aschwanden, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Fortunat Joos

The parties of the Paris Agreement agreed to keep global warming well below 2°C and assess the necessary greenhouse gas emissions reductions every five years during the global stocktake. Globally, the necessary reductions in greenhouse gases are often derived using the remaining emissions budget concept. However, estimations of this budget vary by a factor of two to three and may hamper efforts to establish ambitions emissions reductions. Here, we propose an adaptive approach that side-step these uncertainties to quantify these global emissions reductions during the successive global stocktake solely based on regularly updated observations of past temperatures, radiative forcing, and emissions statistics. The approach consists of three main steps repeated every five years: (1) determining the anthropogenic warming to date and hence the remaining warming allowed, (2) estimating the remaining CO2 forcing equivalent (CO2-fe) emission budget, and (3) proposing a CO2-fe or CO2 emission trajectory for the next 5 years. We test this approach using the Bern3D-LPX Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity and demonstrate that the temperature targets 1.5°C and 2°C can be reached following a smooth emissions pathway. The adaptive nature makes the approach robust against inherent uncertainties in the observational records, climate sensitivity to emissions, and effectiveness of emissions reduction implementations. The approach thus allows developing an emissions trajectory that would iteratively adapt to ultimately meet the agreed temperature goal. The approach also provides a strong alternative to the often-used pre-defined emissions or concentration pathways (such as SSPs), which can result in very different end-of-century temperatures for the same emission or concentration trajectories. Some of these pathways are developed to be consistent with a given warming level (e.g., SSP1-1.9 for 1.5°C), not knowing the actual response of the Earth system to emissions. As opposed to these simulations, simulations from different models using the adaptive approach we propose here would be directly comparable in terms of warming and broader climate impacts but would differ in terms of required emissions. Our approach would hence guide a valuable and highly policy-relevant complementary set of simulations for the next generation of CMIP models resulting in a range of future emission trajectories compatible with a given global warming target.

How to cite: Terhaar, J., Frölicher, T., Aschwanden, M., Friedlingstein, P., and Joos, F.: Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach the Paris Agreement temperature targets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10398, 2022.

EGU22-10860 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Can reforestation help stabilize the climate in net-zero pathways? 

Alexander MacIsaac and Kirsten Zickfeld

Reforestation is a nature-based climate solution (NbCS) that can serve to sequester and store large quantities of atmospheric carbon dioxide. It requires no new technological advancements for deployment, is relatively cost-effective, and it would lead to important co-benefits for ecosystems and ecosystem services. For these reasons reforestation is a key measure in deep-mitigation and net-zero pathways. However, reforestation at scale alters land-surface biophysical properties (albedo, evapotranspiration and latent heat release, and sensible heat flux) that can induce either a warming or cooling effect on  surface temperature. The magnitude and sign of this temperature response depend on the background climate state and latitude over which reforestation is implemented. Therefore, depending on the scale and region of reforestation, these biophysical effects could lead to additional warming in emission pathways that use reforestation to compensate for residual CO2 emissions. 

Our research investigates the effectiveness of reforestation at stabilizing global mean temperature when used to compensate for residual CO2 emissions. Using a climate model of intermediate complexity (the UVic-ESCM v2.10) we conduct a set of idealized simulations where fossil fuel emissions decline towards zero by 2050 but remain at 1 and 5, Gt CO2/yr between 2050 to 2100 to represent emissions that are difficult to eliminate. Meanwhile reforestation is implemented globally and in different latitudinal zones (tropics, mid-latitudes, and high-latitudes) at an areal coverage appropriate to sequester the ongoing emissions so that cumulative CO2 emissions between 2050 and 2100 are net-zero. From these simulations we quantify the effectiveness of reforestation at stabilizing global mean temperature under consideration of biogeochemical and biophysical effects and feedbacks. 

While we expect our results to show that the carbon sequestration from reforestation could be effective at stabilizing global mean temperature, the biophysical effects could also induce important variations in global mean temperature. As such, our research is intended to provide an Earth system analysis of reforestation that can inform forestation carbon markets and net-zero policy frameworks.  

How to cite: MacIsaac, A. and Zickfeld, K.: Can reforestation help stabilize the climate in net-zero pathways?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10860, 2022.

EGU22-11780 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Sharing the burden of carbon dioxide removal 

Claire Fyson, Gaurav Ganti, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

The exercise of translating a global carbon budget into other policy-relevant metrics, for instance, global and regional emission pathways over time is, unavoidably laden with value judgements, raising questions around inter- and intra-generational equity. As net zero targets are increasingly adopted by countries around the world, clarifying their adequacy from a perspective of fairness is essential. Given significant delays in reducing emissions globally, achieving net zero emissions will require the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Recent studies have started to apply equity-based indicators to assess how emission removal obligations could be shared between countries contrasting the resulting distribution of CDR deployment with cost-optimal distributions produced by Integrated Assessment Models. The choice of framework used to share CDR between countries in Paris Agreement compatible pathways - whether based on principles of equity or a least-cost approach - has implications for how these pathways are used to inform CDR governance and policy. This includes how they are used to evaluate targets for achieving net zero (and even net negative) emissions and the CDR assumptions that underlie them, as well as to assess which CDR technologies should be developed and how they should be financed. 

Here we will explore the principles of equity and justice that can be considered relevant to CDR deployment in the context of the Paris Agreement. Drawing examples from recent analysis (Fyson et al. 2020, Lee et al. 2021), we will look at how such principles could be applied quantitatively to evaluate national targets and policies. In doing so we will highlight the importance of applying an equity and justice lens when developing Paris Agreement compatible emission reduction and removal strategies.

References

Fyson, C. L., Baur, S., Gidden, M. & Schleussner, C. F. Fair-share carbon dioxide removal increases major emitter responsibility. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 836–841 (2020).

Lee, K., Fyson, C. & Schleussner, C. Fair distributions of carbon dioxide removal obligations and implications for effective national net-zero targets. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, (2021).

How to cite: Fyson, C., Ganti, G., and Schleussner, C.-F.: Sharing the burden of carbon dioxide removal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11780, 2022.

EGU22-12902 | Presentations | CL3.2.2

Carbon removal in transformation pathways 

Jessica Strefler

With global CO2 emissions still on the rise, technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere become ever more important to achieve the ambitious climate target laid out in the Paris Agreement. The permissible carbon budget compatible with 1.5°C temperature increase above pre-industrial levels could be exhausted already in the next few years, making carbon dioxide removal (CDR) a necessary requirement to achieve this target by reversing global warming. For global mean temperatures to remain well below 2°C, the absence of CDR would require unprecedented emission reduction rates associated with very high economic costs, making this target very likely unachievable without CDR as well. Various options for CDR are being discussed, which all have different costs, potentials, and side-effects. In addition, they also have very different regional profiles and institutional requirements. We will discuss carbon removal requirements and the associated costs, impacts, risks, and trade-offs, as well as regional profiles of different CDR options, which need to be taken into account for a fair distribution of climate change mitigation.

How to cite: Strefler, J.: Carbon removal in transformation pathways, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12902, 2022.

EGU22-2356 | Presentations | CL3.2.3

On the use, misuse and alternatives to probability distributions in descriptions of future climate 

Erica Thompson, Joel Katzav, James Risbey, David Stainforth, Seamus Bradley, and Matthias Frisch

Probability distribution functions (PDFs) are widely used in projections of future climate, projections of the impacts of future climate, and by climate services aiming to provide information to support practical climate change adaptation. Furthermore they are often used as a means of connecting these different activities and linking the variety of disciplines involved in climate science and climate social science.

Here we present an assessment of when such probability distributions misrepresent our uncertainty and a discussion of how we might recognise when such misrepresentations occur [1]. We go on to provide a collection of alternatives to probability distributions for use in such situations.

We start by categorising the ways that probability distributions can misrepresent the state of our knowledge about future climate. Such misrepresentation is of importance because it may adversely affect practical societal decisions, particularly in regard to adaptation activities, as well as misdirecting other research efforts.

We follow this with a discussion of how we might identify such misrepresentations. Doing so would help us communicate climate information better and consequently provided better reasoned and more robust scientific conclusions and societal decisions. Such assessments are an important component in the evaluation of climate information provided by climate services: what aspects of the information can be described as actionable.

We consider two perspectives on these issues. On one, available theory and evidence in climate science essentially excludes using probability distributions to represent our uncertainty. On the other, which represents a significant strand of current practice, probability distributions can legitimately be provided by relying on appropriate expert judgement and the recognition of associated risks.  We discuss the reasoning behind each perspective, framed in terms of the analysis of climate models and expert judgement.

Finally we explore alternatives to the use of probability distributions. We describe two formal alternatives, namely imprecise probabilities and possibilistic distribution functions, as well as some informal possibilistic alternatives. We suggest that the possibilistic alternatives are preferable.

 

[1] Katzav, Thompson, Risbey, Stainforth, Bradley and Frisch, On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives, Climatic Change, 2021.

How to cite: Thompson, E., Katzav, J., Risbey, J., Stainforth, D., Bradley, S., and Frisch, M.: On the use, misuse and alternatives to probability distributions in descriptions of future climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2356, 2022.

Using an original panel data set for 24 OECD countries over the sample 1990-2019 and a standard empirical macroeconomic framework for business cycle analysis, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental related policies and technology. Overall, we find evidence of significant macroeconomic effects over the business cycle: physical risks act as negative demand shocks while transition risks as downward supply movements. The disruptive effects on the economy are exacerbated for countries that did not adopt a carbon tax or with a high exposure to natural disasters. In general, we find evidence that green technological development that is not supported by the right policy mix may result in market failures that have different sizes for different countries with heterogeneous consequences on the phases and duration of their respective  cycles. A  coordinated  approach  on  climate  policies  would  therefore  be  essential for instance in a monetary union with common monetary and financial objectives.

How to cite: Marotta, F.: Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of theeffects of climate change on the macroeconomy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2470, 2022.

EGU22-2607 | Presentations | CL3.2.3

The climate in climate economics 

Doris Folini, Felix Kübler, Aleksandra Malova, and Simon Scheidegger

We develop a generic and transparent calibration strategy for simple climate models used in economics. The goal is to choose the free model parameters such as to best match the output of large-scale Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, run on pre-defined emissions scenarios. We propose to jointly use four different test cases that are considered pivotal in the climate science literature: two highly idealized tests to separately examine the carbon cycle and the temperature response, and two tests closer to real scenarios, incorporating gradual changes in CO2 emissions and exogenous forcings.

To illustrate the applicability of our method, we re-calibrate the free parameters of the climate part of the seminal DICE-2016 model for three different CMIP5 model responses: the multi-model mean as well as two CMIP5 models that exhibit extreme but still permissible equilibrium climate sensitivities. As an additional novelty, our calibrations of DICE-2016 allow for an arbitrary time step in the model explicitly. By applying our comprehensive suite of tests, we i) confirm that both the temperature equations and the carbon cycle in DICE-2016 are miscalibrated and ii) we show that by re-calibrating coefficients all CMIP5 targets considered can be well matched.

Finally, we apply the economic model from DICE-2016 in combination with the newly calibrated climate model to compute the social cost of carbon and optimal warming. We find the social cost of carbon to be similar to DICE-2016, while the optimal long-run temperature is almost one degree lower.  The social cost of carbon turns out to be much less sensitive to the discount rate than in DICE-2016. We explain how the model's climate part relates to these differences. As the temperature in DICE-2016 under optimal mitigation falls outside the range of CMIP5 projections, we caution that one might want to be skeptical about policy advice based on DICE-2016.

How to cite: Folini, D., Kübler, F., Malova, A., and Scheidegger, S.: The climate in climate economics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2607, 2022.

EGU22-4016 | Presentations | CL3.2.3

Climate change impacts on agriculture: do spatial spillovers matter? 

SayedMorteza Malaekeh, Layla Shiva, and Ammar Safaie

The relative lack of research concerning the potential impacts of climate change on different sectors in developing countries, especially the Middle Eastern countries, as the essential prerequisite of climate policy actions has made these countries the frontline against climate impacts. To fill this gap, we use a non-market valuation model to assess the future impacts of climate change on agriculture in Iran. In this study, the relationship between farmland net revenue, as a proxy for land values, and climate change is investigated using a long-spanning Ricardian framework. For farm variables, we take into account novel hydro-climatic variables and climate extreme indices by taking advantage of a high-resolution meteorological dataset to tackle the sparse distribution of weather stations in Iran. For non-farm variables, we consider the pressure of rapid urbanization and migrations from rural areas in addition to socio-economic variables. This study also contributes to the body of literature through methodological improvement by taking advantage of spatial panel econometrics to develop a more robust and consistent model against spatial dependency, spatial heterogeneity, and omitted factors extraneous to the agriculture sector. The estimated coefficients are then employed in projecting long-run welfare impacts on the agricultural sector under several climate change scenarios based on the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in 2050 and 2080. The results show that although climate change probably could have deleterious impacts on agriculture when we see the whole picture, its impacts would highly depend on climate zones and geographical locations. Generally, counties in snow and warm-temperate climate classes would be less susceptible to climate impacts than arid and semi-arid counties. Besides, climate change could even be beneficial for agriculture in a few counties owing to a decrease in cold extreme events frequency and intensity and an increase in growing season lengths and effective growing season degree-days. Thus, we suggest that these positive factors of climate change should be included in empirical studies to avoid overestimating the disruptive impacts of climate change. Finally, we argue that overlooking spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity in Ricardian models could substantially affect impact assessments.

How to cite: Malaekeh, S., Shiva, L., and Safaie, A.: Climate change impacts on agriculture: do spatial spillovers matter?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4016, 2022.

EGU22-6392 | Presentations | CL3.2.3

Apocalypse Now? Projecting CO2 Emissions with Neural Networks 

Sebastian Jensen, Eric Hillebrand, and Mikkel Bennedsen

We project carbon dioxide emissions through 2100 using a reduced-form model and national-level scenarios for per capita gross domestic product from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We propose a novel neural network-based panel data model that combines country fixed effects with a long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network regression component that takes into account time implicitly by building memory and letting model predictions depend on the income path of a country. For scenarios with low socioeconomic challenges for mitigation SSP1 and SSP4, our emissions projections appear consistent with baseline projections from structural integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are meant to describe future developments in absence of new climate policies. For scenarios with medium and high socioeconomic challenges for mitigation SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5, our emissions projections appear the most consistent with mitigation projections from IAMs that target a forcing level of 6.0 W/m2 by 2100.

How to cite: Jensen, S., Hillebrand, E., and Bennedsen, M.: Apocalypse Now? Projecting CO2 Emissions with Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6392, 2022.

EGU22-8342 | Presentations | CL3.2.3 | Highlight

Climate X: Projecting losses due to extreme weather events linked to climate change 

Kamil Kluza and the Climate X

Climate change brings unprecedented risks to the future stability of global financial systems and our society. Central Banks and Governments around the world have joined forces to shape new policy in response to risks driven by climate change. These regulations will require firms to proactively identify, model, quantify and manage climate-related risks for the first time.

Climate X have just completed their first of a kind Integrated Assessment Model evaluating asset-level impacts of climate-related hazards across all 22 million addressed buildings in the UK. Each building has a modelled probability, severity and a simple A-F climate rating as well as a projected loss under given scenario.  

Our geospatial core comprises of UK-specific physical risk models including flooding (pluvial, coastal, fluvial) and geohazards (subsidence and landslides). The models are at 90mx90m resolution feed UKCP18 climate scenarios of RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. Flood models are physics-based and reach a Critical Success Index (CSI) of 75%+. Geohazard models use a combination of DinSAR and machine learning modelling with 90%+ accuracy levels (measured by AUC).

Loss models combine the geospatial hazards with buildings’ exposure (square meterage) and respective vulnerabilities: age, use, material built etc. They then apply insurance-based damage curves to compute structure & content losses against building replacement costs.

 

How to cite: Kluza, K. and the Climate X: Climate X: Projecting losses due to extreme weather events linked to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8342, 2022.

EGU22-9157 | Presentations | CL3.2.3

Simulating economic impacts of droughts on German agriculture using the country-scale Multi-Agent System model DroughtMAS 

Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Christian Klassert, Michael Peichl, Bernd Klauer, and Erik Gawel

Given widespread and serious implications of increasingly intense and frequent extreme events such as droughts and heat waves, there is a growing demand for integrated approaches capable of supporting prospective risk reduction through better adaption to a changing climate. While anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions, there is simultaneous need for projections at higher spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. Here, we present a spatial multi-agent system (MAS) model, DroughtMAS, calibrated using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach. The model simulates land-use adaptation to future drought conditions, estimates the economic damages of future droughts, and assesses policy measures aimed at enhancing the drought resilience of German agriculture. It represents the biophysical and agro-economic heterogeneity of German agriculture through 23,396 individually parameterized land-user agents located on a country-wide 4x4km grid. Cropping behavior is calibrated with land-use data from high-resolution remote sensing analyses and public records and validated with independent land-use data. The economic parameters ground the model to a policy-relevant context while the statistical yield functions capture the impacts of biophysical factors on crop production. These yield functions enable the model to respond to soil moisture changes from observed data or projections from hydrological models. DroughtMAS extends the classical PMP model to capture short-run responses to droughts more realistically and analyze how fast the farmers move towards the desirable equilibrium conditions under recurring droughts. The model shows that farmers gradually adapt to prolonged drought conditions, with a lower degree of adaptation in the first drought years only slightly mitigating drought impacts. We present first analysis of future drought scenarios to demonstrate the ability of the model to quantify risks from potential droughts across Germany in monetary terms. The results provide bottom-up estimates of economic damages of droughts accounting for much needed short-run behavioral dynamics of adaptation. This provides valuable and realistic projections of future drought impacts of farm-specific changes aggregated at national scale. The model also presents spatiotemporal pattern of these impacts, showing the potential for such projections to inform targeted policy interventions. DroughtMAS provides a platform that can be extended to capture additional adaptation behaviors (e.g. drought-resilient crops, adapted crop calendars, irrigation systems) and combined with other models that require empirically validated inputs about various agricultural decision-making conditions.

How to cite: Nagpal, M., Heilemann, J., Klassert, C., Peichl, M., Klauer, B., and Gawel, E.: Simulating economic impacts of droughts on German agriculture using the country-scale Multi-Agent System model DroughtMAS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9157, 2022.

EGU22-11078 | Presentations | CL3.2.3

The Relative Role of Temperature and Precipitation in Global Economic Growth 

Thomas Leirvik, Menghan Yuan, and Hande Karabiyik

Global warming has slowed economic growth and aggravated global economic inequality, affecting individual wellbeing in a wide-ranging aspects. Quantifying these historical impacts is critical for informing climate change mitigation and adaptation and achieving a more equitable economic development. This paper extends existing literature by exploring the effects of precipitation on economic growth. Based on a panel of 169 countries over the period 1961-2019, we demonstrate a statistically significant non-linear effect of precipitation on economic growth, such that output is maximized at around 2.03 metres of annual total precipitation. Despite of the significant sensitivity of precipitation, we find its impacts are relatively small and are completely overwhelmed by the effects of temperature. We examine the historical marginal effects of climate change and find realized temperature has lowered the annual global growth rate by 0.31 percentage points per year on average, whereas realized precipitation has increased the annual economic growth by roughly 0.01 percentage points. Furthermore, we highlight that countries endowed with different climate conditions exhibit substantially different reactions to historical climate change. For example, Europe and Central Asia countries have benefited both from temperature rising and precipitation fluctuations; while adverse impacts are observed for both factors in African countries. These findings suggest the importance of precipitation for countries with vulnerable ecosystems and inform the possibility of incorporating precipitation in economic development projections under future climate trajectories.

How to cite: Leirvik, T., Yuan, M., and Karabiyik, H.: The Relative Role of Temperature and Precipitation in Global Economic Growth, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11078, 2022.

The stylised Integrated Assessment Model DICE by Nobel laureate William Nordhaus has been criticised for its overly simplifying assumptions, yet is still widely used as a testbed model (e.g. for investigating policy effects of climate tipping [Cai, Lenton and Lontzek, 2015] or solar geoengineering [Helwegen et al., 2019]) and, occasionally, policy advice. Surprisingly, much of the past criticism was focusing on the extremely difficult issue of modelling climate-induced damage, while the equally problematic formulation of mitigation costs [Grubb, Wieners and Yang, 2021] remained relatively unchallenged, despite being a more tractable problem. In particular, DICE’s mitigation costs at any time t only depend on the fraction of emissions avoided at time t, ignoring the fact that past mitigation investment affects future costs (“if you build a wind park this year, it will still save carbon next year”).

In the current study, I introduce EnergICE, a DICE version with a still simple, but dynamically more consistent energy sector. Rather than picking a fraction of emissions (w.r.t. a baseline) to be avoided by unspecified means, the social planner now makes investment decisions: To fulfil the system’s energy demand, the planner can choose from “brown” (fuel-using) and “green” (renewable) power plants. As green energy cannot always be generated (dark, windless days), storage facilities can also be built. Green plants have initially only slightly higher lifetime costs than brown ones, but storage is very expensive. Learning-by-doing effects reduce the price of both green plants and storages, while brown plants are a mature technology with little learning potential. On the other hand, fuel becomes more expensive with cumulative use, as harder-to-extract reservoirs must be mined once the easy-to-extract ones are exhausted. Therefore even without climate change, some green transition will eventually occur. However, the transition can remain incomplete for decades, with only enough green plants for the “sunny” periods, but fuel-based energy being used in “dark” times.

A simplified version of EnergICE without storage also exists; in that version, the green plants implicitly contain a storage facility and are thus initially expensive. While capturing the investment-like character of mitigation, the simplified version is hardly more complex than the original DICE model; in particular, it does not add a decision variable.

As a test case, the EnergICE model is used to study the desirability (or undesireability) of solar geoengineering under uncertain climate sensitivity. The choice of the energy model (DICE vs EnergICE) can alter the “optimal” level of solar geoengineering by up to a factor of 6, which illustrates that the treatment of mitigation deserves more attention when using DICE-like models as testbed for new concepts.

How to cite: Wieners, C.: EnergICE: a Simple but more Realistic Energy Sector for the DICE model (with an application to solar geoengineering), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12067, 2022.

EGU22-12280 | Presentations | CL3.2.3 | Highlight

Distributive justice principles for integrated assessment models: a comparative study on interregional justice 

Damla Akoluk, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, and Alexander Verbraeck

Justice in the climate context has gained more attention in the last decade. One of the main reasons is the increasingly pervasive and aggressive impact of climate change on societies and economies. Existing inequalities and disparities between sectors, regions, and generations are often exacerbated by proposed or applied policies. Hence, protecting different groups’ rights becomes more and more necessary in the climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. It is therefore essential to understand the subjective notions of the ethical principles that underlie the policies, by categorically examining these principles before taking action.

For this reason, this study explored different distributive justice principles in integrated assessment models using a descriptive approach. It resulted in a classification of the five most common ethical principles: Utilitarianism, Rawlsianism, Egalitarianism, Prioritarianism, and Sufficientarianism. These principles have been operationalized to find the optimal climate policy for future emissions. The principles have been applied to the Regional Integrated Climate-Economy (RICE) model for a comparative analysis on interregional justice.

How to cite: Akoluk, D., Zatarain Salazar, J., and Verbraeck, A.: Distributive justice principles for integrated assessment models: a comparative study on interregional justice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12280, 2022.

There is growing macro-level evidence about the negative and non-linear impact of temperature on aggregate economic output, with the temperature effects varying widely across geographical regions and extending to both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors (Hsiang, 2010; Dell et al., 2012; Burke et al.,  2015). Less is known about the country-specific micro-level mechanisms behind the temperature-output relationship and their role in adaptation to the warming climate. Addressing this knowledge gap is of considerable importance for designing effective climate change policies, especially in developing countries, which are generally exposed to higher temperatures and have limited capacity to adapt to a changing climate (Somanathan et al., 2021). This paper contributes to the progress on this issue by estimating the impact of temperature on the output of manufacturing plants in India and decomposing it into the effects on TFP and factor inputs.

The paper combines a plant-level panel of detailed production data from the formal manufacturing sector in India over 1998-2007 with high-resolution satellite-based meteorological and pollution datasets, merged at the district level. I use two approaches to construct temperature variable: a standard in the literature binned-variable and seasonal-variable approaches, both used in empirical specifications in contemporaneous and lagged forms. To isolate the role of temperature more clearly, I account for simultaneous variations in temperature and a rich set of weather and pollution controls. I further minimize the estimation biases by including plant-specific and year-by-two-digit-industry fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at plant and district-year levels to address spatial and serial correlation.

My main findings are two-fold. First, the relationship between temperature and manufacturing output is non-linear. The output losses are especially large during the hottest season and at extreme temperatures, with more substantial losses occurring at low rather than high temperatures. This finding is consistent with the theoretical prediction from Nath (2021). An additional day with a temperature above 33°C decreases output by 0.12% or $3,749 relative to a day in the optimal interval. The comparable estimate for an additional day with a temperature below 8°C is a decrease of 0.27% and $8,435, respectively. Second, the estimated temperature-output relationship is driven by the joint effects of temperature on TFP and capital, contributing roughly 30% and 70%. The response of TFP to temperature closely follows the response of output, while the response of capital mirrors the response of output only to higher temperatures. I further decompose these primary channels to show that temperature affects TFP through its impact on labor productivity, and machinery is the most suitable for adaptation category of capital. I also find suggestive evidence of labor reallocation between seasonal manufacturing industries and between economic sectors.

These findings have important implication for adaptation. Manufacturing sector in India can adapt to changing climate by reducing the sensitivity of labor productivity to temperature and by investing in capital, prioritizing investments in machinery. Labor-related adjustments can contribute to adaptation by offsetting direct productivity losses or facilitating labor reallocation. Patterns of the seasonal responses and timing of the adjustments’ effects should also be taken into account.

How to cite: Kyrychenko, O.: Decomposition of the temperature-driven output losses in India: Plant-level evidence for the climate change adaptation policy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12652, 2022.

EGU22-12655 | Presentations | CL3.2.3

Extreme weather effects on land ownership in Uganda 

Lisa Murken, Kati Krähnert, and Christoph Gornott

This study examines the effects of (extreme) weather conditions on the willingness to purchase and on actual purchase of land ownership rights in Uganda. We use three waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey in combination with high-resolution gridded precipitation and temperature data, with which we calculate a drought index as weather shock measure, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Using a household fixed-effects approach, we exploit spatial and temporal variation in SPEI values to causally identify the effect of extreme weather events on the willingness to acquire ownership to land and actual changes in the land ownership structure of households over time. Results show that dry conditions dampen households’ intentions to purchase land ownership rights, while wet conditions positively affect such intentions. In addition, wet conditions substantially increase the price households are willing to pay to purchase land ownership. The effects are robust to different specifications, persistent over time and translate into actual changes of land ownership ratios with a two-year time lag. The findings suggest that more favourable climatic conditions for agriculture increase interest in land ownership, which has implications for land formalisation programmes and climate change adaptation efforts.

How to cite: Murken, L., Krähnert, K., and Gornott, C.: Extreme weather effects on land ownership in Uganda, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12655, 2022.

EGU22-12961 | Presentations | CL3.2.3

Integrating energy justice with community climate action planning 

Kathryn G. Logan, Ladd Keith, Neha Gupta, Amanda J. Leinberger, Rebecca Shelton, and Katharine L. Jacobs

Decarbonisation of energy technologies is essential to meet climate change targets, however, this process has the potential to generate new or further emphasize pre-existing inequalities within society. By ensuring a low carbon energy transition is sustainable and equitable, trade-offs and co-benefits between decarbonisation and other U.S. policy objectives can be achieved. This is important as many communities are in the process of developing or updating their climate action plans (CAPs). The ‘success’ of a CAP is often measured against the greenhouse gas emission forecast for a baseline year and does not consider the wider implications in terms of environmental impacts or impacts to the individuals it directly affects.

We present a theoretical framework to aid decision makers to ensure energy justice is incorporated when designing CAPs. This framework expands on several key principles incorporated into the tenets of energy justice. These principles include energy availability, reliability and affordability, high-quality employment, access to information, objective governance, intersectional responsibility, intra-generational equity, intergenerational equity, and due process. This framework aims to reduce the disproportional burdens of transitioning towards a low carbon energy future by understanding why these key principles should be integrated into new and amended CAPs.

How to cite: Logan, K. G., Keith, L., Gupta, N., Leinberger, A. J., Shelton, R., and Jacobs, K. L.: Integrating energy justice with community climate action planning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12961, 2022.

EGU22-13236 | Presentations | CL3.2.3 | Highlight

Quantifying generational and geographical inequality of climate change 

Emma Hadré, Jonas Küpper, Janina Tschirschwitz, Melissa Mengert, and Inga Labuhn

Global warming caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) triggers a variety of related mechanisms including rising sea levels, heatwaves, and changes in weather regimes. The effects of global warming are not spatially homogenous; Low-income countries of the global south are more severely affected than the industrialized nations of the global north. In addition, large discrepancies between birth cohorts can be observed regarding their GHG emissions as well as exposure to the effects of climate change. Globally, calls for climate justice are emerging, and courts see an increase in so-called climate cases.

In a novel approach, we directly relate per-capita GHG emissions to the global temperature increase experienced by individual birth cohorts over their lifetime, in different world regions, and for different scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSPs). Bridging the gap between emissions scenarios, temperature projections, and climate change impact, we quantify the geographical and generational inequality of climate change. This provides much-needed quantitative evidence to support the increasing number of climate cases and highlights the benefits, of staying within a low-emission scenario (1.5°C warming).

Our results suggest a grouping of world regions into high-, and low-emission regions, revealing clear geographic patterns between the global north and south when projected onto a world map. The geographic inequality regarding per-capita emissions intensifies under SSP3 and SSP5, whereas generational inequality is largest under SSP1.

We calculate an index of the ratio of GHG emissions to experienced global warming, to quantify inequality on a standardized scale, revealing the same geographic patterns and grouping of world regions observed above. Unexpectedly, the observed geographical inequality of the index is largest under SSP1 among the most recent birth cohorts, an observation that additionally pushes the debate about global justice of climate change and mitigation.

How to cite: Hadré, E., Küpper, J., Tschirschwitz, J., Mengert, M., and Labuhn, I.: Quantifying generational and geographical inequality of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13236, 2022.

EGU22-1482 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Pathways of resilience in complex systems. 

Max Rietkerk

The concept of tipping points and critical transitions helps inform our understanding of the catastrophic effects that global change may have on ecosystems, Earth system components, and the whole Earth system. The search for early warning indicators is ongoing, and spatial self-organization has been interpreted as one such signal. Here, we review how spatial self-organization can aid complex systems to evade tipping points and can therefore be a signal of resilience instead. Evading tipping points through various pathways of spatial pattern formation may be relevant for many ecosystems and Earth system components that hitherto have been identified as tipping prone, including for the entire Earth system.

M. Rietkerk, R. Bastiaansen, S. Banerjee, J. van de Koppel, M. Baudena and A. Doelman. 2021. Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation. Science 374 (169): abj0359.

How to cite: Rietkerk, M.: Pathways of resilience in complex systems., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1482, 2022.

EGU22-2198 | Presentations | CL3.2.4 | Highlight

Partial tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world 

Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk Dijkstra, and Anna von der Heydt

Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization of the full (sub)system. Here, we explore tipping in conceptual, but spatially extended and spatially heterogenous models. These are extensions of conceptual models taken from all sorts of climate system components on multiple spatial scales. By analysis of the bifurcation structure of such systems, special stable equilibrium states are revealed: coexistence states with part of the spatial domain in one state, and part in another, with a spatial interface between these regions. These coexistence states critically depend on the size and the spatial heterogeneity of the (sub)system. In particular, in these systems a tipping point might lead to a partial tipping of the full (sub)system, in which only part of the spatial domain undergoes reorganization, limiting the impact of these events on the system's functioning.

How to cite: Bastiaansen, R., Dijkstra, H., and von der Heydt, A.: Partial tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2198, 2022.

EGU22-3830 | Presentations | CL3.2.4 | Highlight

Cascading tipping in a coupled cryosphere-ocean model 

Sacha Sinet, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
In the climate system, many different large-scale components have been identified as tipping elements, i.e., components that may pass a tipping point, with a substantial and definitive impact on earth and societies. These climate components do not stand on their own, but are dynamically coupled, which leads to the issue of cascading tipping. One important example of cascading involves the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), the West Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While the destabilizing effect of a GIS decline on the AMOC is well established, the effect of a tipping WAIS is still unclear.
 
In this project, we aim at getting a better understanding of the global behaviour of this connected system, at a conceptual level. Accounting for the different nature of both ice sheets, we use two models including their most important feedbacks, namely, the marine ice sheet instability for the WAIS and the height-accumulation feedback for the GIS. The AMOC, depicted by the Rooth model, is coupled to both ice sheets through meltwater fluxes. Finally, we consider the Southern Ocean temperature as the main driver of the marine ice sheet instability.
With this conceptual interhemispheric model, we study the role of the AMOC as mediator of this potential cascading in hosing and/or climate change experiments, as well as the involved time scales. As a new result we find that, in this model, the stability of the AMOC depends on the ratio between the GIS and WAIS tipping rates, as well as their delay in time.

How to cite: Sinet, S., von der Heydt, A. S., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Cascading tipping in a coupled cryosphere-ocean model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3830, 2022.

EGU22-4425 | Presentations | CL3.2.4 | Highlight

Tipping risks due to temperature overshoots within the Paris range 

Nico Wunderling, Ricarda Winkelmann, Johan Rockström, Sina Loriani, David A. McKay, Paul Ritchie, Boris Sakschewski, and Jonathan F. Donges

Climate tipping elements potentially lead to accelerated and irreversible climate change once their critical temperature threshold is passed. Some of their critical thresholds (tipping points) are at risk to be transgressed already within the temperature guardrails of 1.5-2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. However, it has been suggested at the same time that global mean temperature levels are likely to temporarily overshoot these boundaries.

Therefore, we investigate the tipping risk for a set of four interacting climate tipping elements using a conceptual model. To this end, we study the impact of different peak and long-term saturation temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest.

We find that overshoot peak temperatures between 2.5-4.0°C increase the risk by 10-55% even if long-term global mean temperature levels are stabilized between 1.5-2.0°C. Furthermore, the interactions between the tipping elements increase tipping risks significantly already at modest to intermediate levels of interaction. Therefore our conceptual study suggests that safe overshoots are only possible for low peak temperatures of the overshoot as well as final saturation temperatures at or below today’s global warming levels.

How to cite: Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Rockström, J., Loriani, S., McKay, D. A., Ritchie, P., Sakschewski, B., and Donges, J. F.: Tipping risks due to temperature overshoots within the Paris range, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4425, 2022.

EGU22-4970 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Planetary limits to soil degradation 

Clarisse Kraamwinkel, Anne Beaulieu, Teresa Dias, and Ruth Howison

Soils are essential to life on Earth but are rapidly degrading worldwide due to unsustainable human activities. We argue that soil degradation constitutes a key Earth system process that should be added as 10th Earth system process to the planetary boundaries framework.

Soil degradation shares all key traits with the nine Earth system processes already present in the planetary boundaries framework. It is caused by human activity, has the potential to cause unacceptable environmental change, shows tipping point behavior when forced beyond a critical level, is relevant on both local and global scales, and is strongly interrelated with the other Earth system processes. 

Healthy soils have a level of resilience against disturbances but once forced beyond a critical level, they are at risk of entering into a downward spiral of degradation fuelled by strong positive feedback loops. Well-documented examples include the local feedback between loss of soil structure and soil biota and the large-scale feedback loop between soil erosion and climate change. The final degraded state of the soil is unable to sustain human life on earth. The fall of past civilizations has been related to their inability to protect the soil. At present, ~33% of the global soils are moderately to severely degraded as a direct result of human activities such as unsustainable agricultural practices, urban expansion, and industrialization. Estimates show that by 2050, 90% of our soils will be degraded, the majority of our ecosystems will be compromised and the entire human population will be affected.

Soils are essential to life on Earth through the provision of soil functions and ecosystem services such as biomass production (including ~95% of the food we eat), climate regulation, water storage and purification, habitat provision, and nutrient cycling. They play a key role in achieving many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including SDG 15: life on land, SDG2: zero hunger, and SDG6: clean water and sanitation. Soil degradation leads to critical disruptions to biosphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, climate change, and land-system change, all processes that have already crossed their planetary boundaries. Hence, in order to improve the planetary boundaries framework and clearly signal the need to protect the soil, we call for soil degradation to be considered the 10th Earth system process in the planetary boundaries framework. 

How to cite: Kraamwinkel, C., Beaulieu, A., Dias, T., and Howison, R.: Planetary limits to soil degradation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4970, 2022.

EGU22-5176 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Reversibility experiments of present-day Antarctic grounding lines 

Benoit Urruty, Emily A. Hill, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gael Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra Langebroek

The stability of the grounding lines of Antarctica is a fundamental question in glaciology, because current grounding lines are in some locations at the edge of large marine basins, and have been hypothesized to potentially undergo irreversible retreat in response to climate change. This could have global consequences and raise sea levels by several metres. However, their reversibility for the current geometry has not yet been questioned, i.e. if pushed very slightly, are they able to recover their former position? 


Here we approach this question using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models (Elmer\Ice, Úa and PISM) which we initialise to closely replicate the current state of Antarctic ice sheet using inverse methods or spin-up approaches and the latest observations. To assess the reversibility of the Antarctic grounding lines in their current position, we apply a small amplitude perturbation in ice shelf melt rates for 20 years, which leads to a numerically significant grounding line retreat, but does not fundamentally alter it. After reversing the forcing we examine the grounding line evolution over the following 80 to 480 years, which allows us to see the direction of the ice sheet trajectory after removing the perturbation, i.e. recovery or further retreat. However, since ice dynamics adjust over long timescales of millennia, in some cases up to 500 years are not sufficient for the grounding lines to fully recover to their initial positions. To complement these experiments and to investigate the long-term response to small perturbations, we run the lower resolved Parallel Ice Sheet Model towards equilibrium. In this case, the perturbation is the increase from 1850 to present-day climate, and the experiments indicate whether present-day climate can cause Antarctic grounding lines to retreat on the long-term.


This work is part of the TiPACCs project and complements two presentations focusing on the short-term (EGU22-7802) and long-term (EGU22-7885) reversibility experiments of present-day Antarctic grounding lines in more detail.

How to cite: Urruty, B., Hill, E. A., Reese, R., Garbe, J., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R., Chekki, M., Chandler, D., and Langebroek, P.: Reversibility experiments of present-day Antarctic grounding lines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5176, 2022.

EGU22-5370 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Revealing hidden tipping in spatially-resolved Earth system analysis 

Sina Loriani, Boris Sakschewski, Jesse F. Abrams, Markus Drüke, Timothy Lenton, Nico Wunderling, Caroline Zimm, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The assessment of potential tipping elements in the Earth system and their associated tipping thresholds is essential for understanding long-term Earth system change and describing a safe operating space. However, their identification in model outputs and observational data typically requires making assumptions about the spatial extent of individual elements. While the resulting regional to continental aggregates allow for the study of collective time series, they are potentially based on subjective judgement and could mask non-linear behaviour on smaller scales.

In this work, we present a novel method based on a timescale- and variable-independent metric to automatically identify potential tipping elements in the Earth system with a few or no free parameters. Gridded datasets are scanned for abrupt shifts on the grid-cell level, which are subsequently automatically clustered in space and time. This allows for the creation of maps with areas grouped and classified by their dynamical behaviour without an a-priori definition of connected regions.

Applying the presented method to various Earth System model outputs, we detect clusters with different nonlinear responses to future emission scenarios which are otherwise masked. Consequently, our bottom-up approach provides insight into the spatial structures and temporal processes of large-scale tipping elements, and sheds light on ‘hidden’ tipping of their subsystems.

 

How to cite: Loriani, S., Sakschewski, B., Abrams, J. F., Drüke, M., Lenton, T., Wunderling, N., Zimm, C., and Winkelmann, R.: Revealing hidden tipping in spatially-resolved Earth system analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5370, 2022.

EGU22-6786 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Estimating nonlinear stability from time series data 

Adrian van Kan, Jannes Jegminat, and Jonathan Donges

Basin stability (BS) is a measure of nonlinear stability in multistable dynamical systems. BS has previously been estimated using Monte-Carlo simulations, which requires the explicit knowledge of a dynamical model. We discuss the requirements for estimating BS from time series data in the presence of strong perturbations, and illustrate our approach for two simple models of climate tipping elements: the Amazon rain forest and the thermohaline ocean circulation. We discuss the applicability of our method to observational data as constrained by the relevant time scales of total observation time, typical return time of perturbations and internal convergence time scale of the system of interest and other factors.

How to cite: van Kan, A., Jegminat, J., and Donges, J.: Estimating nonlinear stability from time series data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6786, 2022.

EGU22-7064 | Presentations | CL3.2.4 | Highlight

Identification and management of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points 

Kees van Ginkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Elco Koks, and Wouter Botzen

Global warming may cause abrupt and non-linear climate tipping points, with large impacts to established socio-economic systems [1]. The socio-economic system itself also exhibits many non-linear change processes, and therefore may experience manifold unintentional climate-change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) that could already follow from relatively small changes in climatic conditions. Examples are the gentrification of vulnerable groups or abrupt unplanned retreat from areas of increasing climate risk, abrupt transitions in financial markets, large-scale systematic malfunction of critical infrastructure networks during weather extremes, sudden reconfigurations of insurance markets and house price collapses. Such SETPs are defined as ‘a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state’ [2]. It is important for spatial-economic planners and capital investors to know if and under what conditions SETPs may happen, and what can be done to anticipate and manage their causes and effects.

With three model-based case studies we demonstrate a stepwise approach to identify SETPs and to support adaptation and mitigation policy. The first is a house price collapse and radical transformation of long-term flood risk policy in a coastal city like Rotterdam, following rapid sea level rise due to Antarctic ice-sheet instability. Using a model that simulates flood risk, house prices and adaption integrally, we identify abrupt house price collapses in hundred-thousands possible futures spanning the uncertainty in sea level rise, storm surge and house market scenarios. We explicitly explore the long-term impacts of four dynamic adaptive strategies to anticipate flood risk and their successfulness in avoiding a SETP [3]. The second case is the financial collapse of the winter sports industry in the European Alps following a gradually retreating snowline [4]. The third is a large-scale systematic malfunction of national road networks of European countries due to increasing river flood hazards. The focus of our contribution is on showing how decision making can be supported despite the large uncertainties around SETPs. Finally, we discuss how the SETP-concept aligns with socio-ecological regime shifts [5] and deliberate positive social tipping points to achieve large mitigation and adaptation challenges [6,7].

Types of tipping points along the cause-effect chain from increasing GHG, to biophysical changes, to socioeconomic impacts and transformative adaptation and mitigation response. Source [2], CC-BY3.0 license.

Refs (doi): [1] 10.1073/pnas.2103081118; [2] 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6395; [3] 10.2139/ssrn.3935775; [4] 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.005; [5] 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75; [6] 10.1073/pnas.1900577117 [7] v10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242

How to cite: van Ginkel, K., Haasnoot, M., Koks, E., and Botzen, W.: Identification and management of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7064, 2022.

Soils are a key component of the Critical Zone of continental surfaces, ranging from the atmosphere to bedrock, guaranteeing the functioning of the Earth's ecosystems and ensuring the continuity of life on Earth. Our assumption is that highly biodiverse and functional soils provide the underpinning of indispensable services that ensure the basis for sustainable economic livelihoods and societies. Soils are susceptible to degradation through misuse, leading to a reduction in their functional diversity and redundancy. The adoption of a systemic approach, such as the social-ecological systems (SES) framework, may contribute to the identification of the adaptive capacities of societies to this expected reduction in soil functioning. In a SES framework, humans are embedded in natural systems and are understood to profoundly affect these system’s functions/services, interacting through feedbacks and cascading dynamics at different spatial and temporal scales. A SES framework is a suitable analytical tool that can provide insight on sensitive components and constellations of them, which likely may led to the crossing of a tipping point (TP), resulting in undesired alternative steady states of the system.

We aim to identify potential TPs, via an in-depth characterization and understanding of the SESs in the tri-national MAP region (Southwestern Amazon). For this purpose, we have delimited key underlying interconnected subsystems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the livelihood system, the regional social system and the regional climate system. In our SES framework, we focus on relevant component’s functions for the tipping dynamics relating land use change and loss of ecosystem services. Our objective is to provide a set of early warning indicators of the impact and legacy damage of disturbances and the regulatory feedback dynamics between the different subsystems. Our hypothesis is that the crossing of a TP as consequence of reduced soil functions may exert pressure on livelihoods, as people shift to a new level of welfare or adapt their land use or income-generating activities. If this process leads to additional deforestation, it will likely lead to the amplification of regional drought events due to the loss of moisture convection that forests provide. Increasing drought due to the loss of forests will (self)amplify and lead to increased forest wildfires and more opportunities for illegal deforestation and land use change. Further, increasing livelihood and income insecurity, combined with insufficient provision of state services and regulation, as well as weak law enforcement, may exert pressure on social systems by e.g. making illegal and criminal activities more attractive, ultimately undermining social cohesion. In addition, a central aspect of our research is to investigate options for counteracting this cascade of detrimental/harmful and potentially self-amplifying positive feedbacks. This might be achieved by interfering with self-enhancing positive feedback loops, the stimulation of negative, stabilizing feedbacks, e.g. forest recovery or reflexive governance, especially on the local to regional level in order to prevent the crossing of TPs or even to stimulate non-linear dynamics towards positive TPs.

How to cite: Andrino, A. and the Prodigy Team: Exploring the emergence of tipping points in the social-ecological system at the border of Peru, Brazil and Bolivia (MAP region), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7867, 2022.

EGU22-11441 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Detecting ecosystem-relevant crossings of thresholds 

Friederike Fröb, Timothée Bourgeois, Nadine Goris, Jörg Schwinger, and Christoph Heinze

With ongoing climate change, multiple stressors including ocean warming, deoxygenation, ocean acidification and limited nutrient availability are expected to lead to considerable regime shifts within marine ecosystems [1]. However, distinguishing such abrupt shifts from long-term trends in physical and biogeochemical ocean variables may not only be obscured by the natural variability of the system, but also the complexity of the ecosystem itself. Moreover, species-dependent physiological tolerances are likely going to limit the detectability of crossing of thresholds or tipping points of the whole ecosystem. The metabolic index describes temperature-dependent hypoxic tolerances with respect to the oxygen supply [2]. Critical values of the metabolic index indicate the geographical limits of marine species, therefore it is a useful metric to describe the extent of a potential habitat. Here, we assess the spatio-temporal detectability of abrupt changes in such a potential habitat for selected marine species using an environmental time series changepoint detection routine developed by [3]. We compare the number and timing of these abrupt changes in different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) run with the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2), i.e., analysing the SSP1-26, SSP-5-34-OS, and SSP5-85 scenarios. Preliminary results reveal global, regional and local abrupt changes of lost metabolically viable potential habitat in relation to environmental stressors under different evolving climates.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989 (project COMFORT). The work reflects only the authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.

 

[1] Heinze et al., 2020, The quiet crossing of tipping points, PNAS, 118(9)

[2] Deutsch et al., 2020, Metabolic trait diversity shapes marine biogeography, Nature, 585, 557-562

[3] Beaulieu and Killick, 2018, Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data, Journal of Climate, 31(23), 9519-9543

How to cite: Fröb, F., Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., and Heinze, C.: Detecting ecosystem-relevant crossings of thresholds, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11441, 2022.

Concerns are rising that the earth system may reach some critical tipping points in the coming decades. Though, growing evidence also supports the potential of positive social tipping points that could propel transformative changes towards global sustainability. The recently approved ERC Starting Grant “StoRes” (Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Flood Resilience) proposed a systematic analysis on unique cases of flood resilience, which is expected to demonstrate such a positive perspective over various spatial and temporal scales.

The ERC project focuses on the historical Tea Horse Road area (THR), a mountainous region of the Southeast Tibetan Plateau with well-documented history going back over 600 years. The study first sets up a theoretical framework on the multi-spatial-temporal features of flood resilience at the THR region, which covers the spatial differences (household, community, city and region) over the past 600 years regarding the governance, technology, society, and culture perspectives of flood resilience. A set of quantitative proxy data, historical archives, literature re-analysis, statistical data, observation data and field survey data are integrated into both the empirical study in the case areas and the agent-based modelling across the cases. Preliminary results indicated that, various strong and smart social regulations (governance, institutions, plans, management, motivations, orders, donations, dedication, etc.) enabled a wise development of many water conservancy projects that consequently enhanced the resilience of local communities to hydrological hazards.

The study aims to further 1) establish a theoretical understanding of the spatial-temporal scales of flood resilience; 2) investigate the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of flood resilience at the THR cases; 3) model the spatial-temporal dynamics of flood resilience using agent-based models; 4) transfer and generalize the research findings of the THR cases to the Mekong River basin and beyond. By doing so, the project will present pioneering work to shape the emerging research field of flood resilience, offering new and multi-dimensional knowledge on the dynamic nature of flood-society relations, and providing crucial missing links to understand how flood resilience develops within complex human-environment contexts.

How to cite: Yang, L. E.: Spatial-temporal dynamics of positive social resilience to flood hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12359, 2022.

EGU22-12865 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Towards a green water planetary boundary 

Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Arne Tobian, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, Sofie te Wierik, Miina Porkka, Arie Staal, Fernando Jaramillo, Heindriken Dahlmann, Chandrakant Singh, Peter Greve, Dieter Gerten, Patrick Keys, Tom Gleeson, Sarah Cornell, Will Steffen, Xuemei Bai, and Johan Rockström

Green water - i.e., land precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture - is fundamental for the functioning of the biosphere and the Earth System, but is increasingly perturbed by continental-to-planetary scale human pressures on land, water and climate systems. The planetary boundaries (PB) framework demarcates a global safe operating space for humanity, but does hitherto not explicitly account for green water. Here, we propose a green-water boundary within the existing PB framework, of which a control variable could be defined as "the percentage of ice-free land area on which root-zone soil moisture deviates from Holocene variability for any month of the year". We provide provisional estimates of baseline departures based on CMIP6 data, and review the literature on soil-moisture induced deterioration in Earth System functioning. The evidences taken together suggest that the green water PB is already transgressed, implying that human modifications of green water need to come to a halt and be reversed. Future research needs to advance our understanding of root-zone water dynamics, including associated large-scale and potentially non-linear interactions with ecohydrology, hydroclimate, biogeochemistry and societies.

How to cite: Wang-Erlandsson, L., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R., Fetzer, I., te Wierik, S., Porkka, M., Staal, A., Jaramillo, F., Dahlmann, H., Singh, C., Greve, P., Gerten, D., Keys, P., Gleeson, T., Cornell, S., Steffen, W., Bai, X., and Rockström, J.: Towards a green water planetary boundary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12865, 2022.

EGU22-13474 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Global blue and green water cycles exit from pre-industrial variation – freshwater change planetary boundary exceeded? 

Miina Porkka, Vili Virkki, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Chinchu Mohan, Tom Gleeson, Dieter Gerten, and Matti Kummu
Cycling of water supports a wide array of Earth system functions ranging from ecosystem provision to regulating greenhouse gas fluxes. While justifiably included in the planetary boundaries framework, the current freshwater planetary boundary fails in recognising the interplay between local and global drivers modifying the water cycle. Building on recent conceptual work and considering an extended selection of Earth system functions, we propose quantitative indicators for blue and green water to measure and monitor water cycle modifications. These indicators can capture changes at local, regional, or planetary scales, offering a robust and easily measurable way of determining alterations in the water cycle.
 
Our data consisted of discharge (blue water) and root-zone soil moisture (green water) simulated by state-of-the-art gridded global hydrological models in ISIMIP 2b. Initiating our analysis at the 30-arcmin grid scale, we set cell-wise dry (5th percentile) and wet (95th percentile) local bounds based on pre-industrial (1681–1860) data, separately for blue and green water. We then determined cell-wise exits from these local bounds of baseline variability and aggregated them at the global scale. This resulted in a time series of the percentage of global land area where blue or green water anomalies exit local bounds of baseline variability. The 95th percentile of these global baseline departures was then set as the safe limit of water cycle modifications. Finally, to estimate the state of the water cycle, we compared the recent past (1881–2005) blue and green water conditions to the pre-industrial conditions. First, we determined cell-wise exits from the local bounds and then aggregated the global baseline departures to compare those with the safe limits.
 
We show that in all aspects - blue and green water and dry and wet anomalies - the global water cycle has undergone substantial changes and transgressed the safe limits. This is a result of a gradual change throughout the 20th century. For blue water, drying conditions dominate along the mid-latitudes, whereas for green water, large-scale wetting prevails in the Northern Hemisphere boreal regions. Major changes in both blue and green water conditions co-occur commonly around regions with the highest anthropogenic pressures. Overall, global changes especially towards drier blue water conditions and wetter green water conditions have gone far beyond the pre-industrial levels - therefore placing the water cycle in a state unknown to modern societies.
 
Our results underline the necessity and urgency to update the freshwater change planetary boundary. As both blue and green water cycles have entered an unprecedented state following a long and gradual change, Earth system functions upkept by the water cycle may already be or become compromised. While further studies are required to assess the status of the freshwater change planetary boundary alongside other boundaries to provide a comprehensive analysis on total Earth system resilience, our results clearly show that the global water cycle is changing towards the unknown.

How to cite: Porkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Mohan, C., Gleeson, T., Gerten, D., and Kummu, M.: Global blue and green water cycles exit from pre-industrial variation – freshwater change planetary boundary exceeded?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13474, 2022.

EGU22-13516 | Presentations | CL3.2.4 | Highlight

Ten new insights in climate science 2021 – a horizon scan 

Maria A. Martin

Since 2017, the 10 new insights in climate science (10NICS, https://10insightsclimate.science/) annually summarize a set of the most critical aspects of Earth’s complex climate system – including physical, biogeochemical and socioeconomic/sociocultural dimensions.

Here we set the context of the 10NICS series as a joint project between Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and briefly visit each of the ten insights from the 2021 edition (Martin et al., 2021):  (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demandside solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.

The 10NICS topics are not intended to form a comprehensive scientific assessment. Intentionally limited to 10, each insight is succinct and does not try to cover entire fields.

Martin, M. A., Alcaraz Sendra, O., Bastos, A., Bauer, N., Bertram, C., Blenckner, T., … Woodcock, J. (2021). Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan. Global Sustainability, 4(e25), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.25

How to cite: Martin, M. A.: Ten new insights in climate science 2021 – a horizon scan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13516, 2022.

EGU22-13540 | Presentations | CL3.2.4

Conceptualizing World-Earth System resilience: Exploring transformation pathways towards a safe and just operating space for humanity 

John M. Anderies, Wolfram Barfuss, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Jobst Heitzig, and Johan Rockström

We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth System resilience.  Our notion of World-Earth System resilience emphasizes the need to move beyond the basin of attraction notion of resilience as we are not in a basin we can stay in. We are on a trajectory to a new basin and we have to avoid falling into undesirable basins.  We thus focus on `pathway resilience', i.e. the relative number of paths that allow us to move from the transitional operating space we occupy now as we leave the Holocene basin  to a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We develop a mathematical model to formalize this conceptualization and demonstrate how interactions between earth system resilience  (biophysical processes) and world system resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience.  Our findings show that building earth system resilience is probably our only chance to reach a safe and just operating space.  We also illustrate the importance of world system dynamics by showing how the notion of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience. 

How to cite: Anderies, J. M., Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Heitzig, J., and Rockström, J.: Conceptualizing World-Earth System resilience: Exploring transformation pathways towards a safe and just operating space for humanity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13540, 2022.

EGU22-69 | Presentations | CL3.2.5 | Highlight

Sensitivity analysis of Radiative Transfer model towards leaf biophysical and biochemical parameter retrieval 

Prachi Singh, Prashant K. Srivastava, and Rajesh K. Mall

Coupling of leaf physiological models with leaf and canopy RT (Radiative Transfer) models allow evaluation and quantification of most influential variables using fluorescence signal emitted by the leaf and canopy. Using RTM output, one of the most successful method i.e. Sobol global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most influential input variables through matrices such as first-order (Si) and total-Order effect (STi). The present study was conducted using the field-based and hyperspectral datasets in the agricultural site in Northern India. Ground bio-physical (Leaf water content, Leaf area Index) and bio-chemical (Chlorophyll) parameters were collected. RTM spectral outputs were generated for hyperspectral data within the spectral range of 350-2500 nm. To calculate the first order and total order sensitivity result of PROSPECT-4 (leaf) and PROSPECT+SAIL (canopy) RTMs were evaluated. Sobol results for PROSPECT-4 model reveal that the role of biochemical parameter chlorophyll content in the visible region and the influence of the other biophysical parameters such as Leaf structure and dry matter across the whole spectral range. Only Leaf water content reflectance was found around 1200 nm onwards. After coupling the leaf PROSPECT-4 model with SAIL (Scattering by Arbitrary Inclined Leaves) model, reference PROSAIL STi results showed that the LAI variable shows 50% of the total variability, especially in the SWIR region. The present study is not only useful to know wavelength-dependent influential and non-influential RTM input variables but also for driving input variables of fluxes such as photosynthesis of the canopy and for the estimation of FPAR (Fraction of photosynthetically active radiation) values.  

How to cite: Singh, P., Srivastava, P. K., and Mall, R. K.: Sensitivity analysis of Radiative Transfer model towards leaf biophysical and biochemical parameter retrieval, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-69, 2022.

EGU22-2183 | Presentations | CL3.2.5 | Highlight

Temperature impact on viticulture phenological stages in Croatia under present climate condition 

Branimir Omazić, Lucija Blašković, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Ivan Prša, and Marko Karoglan

As many studies shows, temperature is key element that affects grapevine growth. Global warming and temperature rise shifted grapevine phenology in many vineyard regions worldwide. Also, temperature and precipitation extremes can effect wine quality and yield. In Croatia, viticulture represents one of the most important branches of agriculture in the economical and traditional sense. Therefore, it is important to study changes in vine growth, as well as impact of meteorological parameters on it, so that it can be used to predict suitability and growth under future climate.

In this study, dates of beginning of 3 phenological phases (budburst, flowering and veraison), as well as harvest dates, collected from wineries across country, were analyzed. Results show earlier appearances of almost all phases, regardless of variety. With rise of temperature, the duration between two phases is shorted and that leads to an earlier harvest.

Also, 5 agrometeorlogical indices (Growing degree day, Winkler index, Huglin index, Cool night index and Dryness index) in two 30 year long period (1961-1990, 1991-2020) were calculated from meteorological data collected from 74 meteorological stations in Croatia. A spatial interpolation was applied on results and maps were made at 1-km resolution. Maps show significant changes in temperature indices between two periods. This raises the possibility of growing new varieties in certain regions, but also hints that grapevine could be cultivated in new regions.

In addition, temperature impact on the phenological phases is studied. Relationship between begging of the phases and mean daily temperate averaged over period that precede is calculated. Also, multi-linear regression between start dates of phenological phases and monthly averages of minimum, maximum and mean temperature is calculated, so that the best correlation could be determined. Results show a good correlation between dates and temperature, which can be valuable indicator for even more significant changes in vine growth in future.

How to cite: Omazić, B., Blašković, L., Telišman Prtenjak, M., Prša, I., and Karoglan, M.: Temperature impact on viticulture phenological stages in Croatia under present climate condition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2183, 2022.

EGU22-2866 | Presentations | CL3.2.5 | Highlight

Rainfall onset no longer a starting signal for planting crops? 

Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, Nick van de Giesen, and Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis

Adjusting the farming practices in West Africa (WA) to changing climate conditions is of utmost importance when considering that a quarter of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa lacks access to sufficient food (FAO et al., 2019). Climate change-induced effects such as delays in the start of the rainy season or intermittent dry spells at the beginning of the season also known as false start have devastating consequences on crop response and compromise food security in the region (Laux et al., 2008). Failing to plant at the right moment has led farmers to experience water stresses and yield reduction/failure at the end of the season.

To address the issue, several definitions have been proposed in order to identify a safe planting date. However, some of the assumptions on which the definitions were built are no longer valid under the current climate conditions leading to frequent cases of crop failure. In this study, we evaluated the most commonly used definition called the local onset, which is defined as one or two consecutive rainy days followed by 30 days without dry spells of 7 days or more (Marteau et al., 2009). We used a set of stations from the TAHMO network (https://tahmo.org/) across the Semi-Arid Zone of  WA to compute the local onset date. This onset date is then compared to the optimal sowing date derived from computed yields based on local rainfall patterns measured by the TAHMO stations, using the crop model AquaCrop (https://www.fao.org/aquacrop/en/).

The results indicate that the local onset generally leads to planting early in the season while that period is risky and characterized by intermittent dry spells. On the contrary, delaying the planting until later in the season reduces largely the risk of harvest failure and higher yield can be achieved. These outcomes highlight the necessity to update the coupling between rainfall onset detection and planting date, which will contribute to improving food security.

 

References:

  • FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO, 2019. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019. Safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
  • Laux, P., Kunstmann, H., Bardossy, A., 2008. Predicting the regional onset of the rainy season in West Africa. Int. J. Climatol. 28, 329-342. doi:10.1002/joc.1542.
  • Marteau, R., Moron, V., Philippon, N., 2009. Spatial coherence of monsoon onset over western and central Sahel (1950-2000). J. Climate 22, 1313-1324. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2383.1.

How to cite: Agoungbome, S. M. D., van de Giesen, N., and ten Veldhuis, M.-C.: Rainfall onset no longer a starting signal for planting crops?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2866, 2022.

EGU22-3640 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Italian viticulture and climate change 

Laura Massano, Giorgia Fosser, and Marco Gaetani

Italy is a world leader for viticulture and wine business. According to the 2021 National Wine Market Forum, promoted by National Wine Union (Uiv), the wine business in Italy is expected to have an annual turnover of 11 billion euros in 2022, keeping Italy at second place in the world trade market ranking. 

Our study aims to understand the impact of climate change on wine production in Italy to provide useful information to winegrowers and stakeholders involved in the wine business to make their activities more sustainable and more resilient to climate change. The climate variables that most influence grape growth are: temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Starting from these variables, we calculate a range of bioclimatic indices, selected following the International Organisation of Vine and Wine Guidelines (OIV), to be correlated with grape yield data. 

Using observations from the E-OBS gridded dataset, we investigate how the bioclimatic indices changed in the last 39 years (1980-2019), and the impact of these changes on grape productivity aggregated at the regional (NUTS2) scale. The Italian Statistic Institute (ISTAT) provides yearly grape yield data for each region, which allows us to account for specific regional grape characteristics and wine production policies. 

Our results show low and not statistically significant correlations between individual bioclimatic indices and yields in most of the NUTS2 aggregations. Climate is not the only factor that influences wine productivity. In fact, vineyard management, policies, and markets can play a major role and those data are not included in the ISTAT dataset. The study highlights the need for higher quality data, including their metadata, and the active involvement of local businesses in this type of impact study.

How to cite: Massano, L., Fosser, G., and Gaetani, M.: Italian viticulture and climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3640, 2022.

This paper proposes an analytical strategy that combines X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) analysis as an alternative solution to long-term experiments  that seek to investigate spatiotemporal variations in soil hydraulic properties induced by drainage  and recharge cycles. We conducted CT scanning on 100-cm-high column filled with two types of sandy soil in a laboratory environment to simulate, over a month, the equivalent of nearly 40 years of drainage/recharge cycles akin to agricultural fields adopting subirrigation as water management practices. We also monitored soil matric potential, water inflow and outflow, and the movement of tracers. This later consists in zirconium oxide (ZrO2) that we added to the top 20 cm of each soil column. The results revealed that drainage and recharge cycles greatly affect the evolution of soil hydraulic properties at different locations along the soil profile by reducing drainage and capillary capacities. The approach also allowed us to identify each periodic  component of drainage and recharge cycles, thereby calculating the systematic drift over time.  The proposed method can be applied to predict soil evolution according to soil texture, drainage  system design and water management, thereby offering a potential basis for proposing mitigation  measures related to soil hydrodynamics. It may find its application in agricultural farms adopting  subirrigation and surface (e.g., drip) irrigation approaches and mining and civil engineering.

How to cite: Gumiere, S.: A computational method for modeling spatiotemporal variability of sandy soil hydrodynamic properties under drainage and recharge, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3644, 2022.

EGU22-4486 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Livestock exposure to future cumulated climate-related stressors in West Africa 

Audrey Brouillet and Benjamin Sultan

As global warming is projected to intensify according to model simulations, a large range of resulting impacts and stressors is expected during the 21st century. Severe impacts are particularly projected in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be exposed to cumulated and cross-sectoral climate stressors during the upcoming decades. A set of eight major risk indicators that may affect livestock is assessed and illustrate changes in food availability, heat stress, flood and drought risks. Corresponding simulations are analysed from the largest multi-model climate-related impact simulations database ISIMIP.

Under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that a large part of West Africa will experience at least 5 to 6 cumulated cross-sectoral climate stressors before the 2030s, including amplified severe heat stress conditions and flood risks. Consequently, about 30% of total west african livestock will be affected by these cumulated stressors, with highest exposures shown for sheeps and cattles (respectively 39% and 38% of their total regional density). Multi-model means show that these species will be first exposed to significant intensification of severe heat stress conditions from early 2020s, then to more flood risks from 2030s. This study brings new quantifications that could help policy makers to prioritize decisions to prepare local populations to face multiple climate-related impacts.

How to cite: Brouillet, A. and Sultan, B.: Livestock exposure to future cumulated climate-related stressors in West Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4486, 2022.

EGU22-4752 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

The effect of climate change on viniculture in the Western Cape of South Africa 

Helga Chauke and Rita Pongrácz

There are many studies on global climate change, however, there is limited information on regional climate change and its effect on South Africa. This limits abilities to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. It was projected that in the case of a global average temperature increase of 2 °C under optimistic conditions, South Africa was identified as one of the most vulnerable countries, and it was predicted that it will experience approximately 4 °C increase along the coast, and 7 °C in the interior by 2100.

The majority of viniculture is practiced in the Western Cape within South Africa, where the Mediterranean climate conditions resemble to the European Mediterranean regions (except the hemispherical differences). This area receives more rain than the inland regions, which makes it optimal for grape production. However, this region recently experienced an 18-month-long drought that threatened water resources and greatly affected agriculture.

For the present study, historic and future scenario simulation data were downloaded from the ESGF server of the CORDEX program, 10 and 9 simulations are available with 0.22° horizontal resolution for the RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively. The reference period for this study is the 1981-2000 period, in addition, three different scenario periods are analysed: the near future (2021-2040), the mid-century (2041-2060), and the end of the century (2079-2098). Climate change maps project an increase (>100%) in precipitation at the end of the century under the pessimistic conditions, and an increase of 3 °C in the Western Cape region. However, some of the model simulations project these increases.

Such an increase in temperature will result in prolonged droughts and more frequent heat waves, thus resulting in alterations of ecosystem structures.Increased precipitation variability poses uncertainties for vine farmers, approximately 10,000 hectares of grapevine area has been lost in the past decade and more area could be lost due to climate change.The future of viniculture depends on the application of efficient mitigation and adaptation strategies against the fast changing climate.

How to cite: Chauke, H. and Pongrácz, R.: The effect of climate change on viniculture in the Western Cape of South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4752, 2022.

EGU22-5962 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Parametrization of vineyard's physiology and phenology with the crop model IVINE 

Claudio Cassardo and Valentina Andreoli

The numerical crop growth model IVINE (Italian Vineyard Integrated Numerical model for Estimating physiological values) was developed at the dept. of Physics, Univ. of Torino to simulate grapevine phenological and physiological processes. The boundary conditions required by IVINE are hourly meteorological data related to: air temperature and relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, downward radiation, soil temperature and volumetric water content and/or water moisture potential relating to the two soil layers considered (80 cm). Among those values, the more relevant are: air temperature and soil moisture. Other inputs required are initial conditions and parameters characterizing geography (longitude and latitude), soil texture, and grapevine variety, as well as information relating to cultivation interventions (main pruning, grape bunches thinning). Among the principal IVINE outputs, there are: the main philological stages (dormancy exit, bud-break, fruit set, veraison, and harvest), the leaf development, the yield, the berry sugar concentration, and the predawn leaf water potential. The IVINE requires to set some experimental parameters depending on the cultivar. IVINE model works including theoretical physically based equations for processes such as water balance and photosynthesis, and empirical equations for others. Seven main phenological phases can be identified: exit from dormancy period, bud-burst, flowering, fruit-set, beginning of ripening, veraison and harvest (the timing of this phase greatly depends on the variety of the grapevine, as well as on the choices of the winemaker). Exit from dormancy phase is evaluated using summed chilling units, while for bud burst summed growing degree hours are used, and for flowering and fruit set summed growing degree days (GDD), always starting from the previous phase. The phases of the beginning of ripening, veraison and harvest are determined by the model through a combination of GDD and critical thresholds on the sugar content of the berries, depending on the grapevine variety chosen. The leaf area index (LAI) is calculated from the bud-burst to the veraison in function of some parameters, the temperature, and the soil water content. The quantity of sugar in the berries (in °Brix), which is an excellent indicator of berry maturity and quality, depends on some parameters and uses double sigmoid with values depending on air temperature. The yield is regulated by photosynthesis, using some empirical parameters. Regarding the model sensitivity to the boundary conditions, the phenological phases are almost linearly anticipated by an increase of temperature, while the sugar content of the berries increases non-linearly with temperature, stabilizing around its maximum value; the LAI and the yield show non-linear increases with soil moisture. Long-term simulations carried out in Italian territory show, in the period 1980-2010, significant trends in almost all physio-phenological variables, as well as a reduction in interannual variability, correlated with the climate change still ongoing.

IVINE model performances depend on the quality of input data: the use of experimental data measured not far from the vineyard could improve the quality of the simulation, even if the model seems able to account for the interannual variability of the meteorological conditions, which reflects in the pheno-physiological trends interannual variability.

How to cite: Cassardo, C. and Andreoli, V.: Parametrization of vineyard's physiology and phenology with the crop model IVINE, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5962, 2022.

EGU22-6248 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Effects on soil water content and productivity of selected crops in a field experiment with rain-out shelter vs. control plot in the Czech Republic 

Sabina Thaler, Josef Eitzinger, Petr Hlavinka, Eva Pohankova, and Miroslav Trnka

Field experiments based on the manipulation of the crops' environment are crucial to determine the response of crops to the expected climatic conditions in near future. The number of droughts in Central Europe is expected to increase and it is crucial to investigate how this will affect agriculture. An experimental site in Domanínek, Czech Republic, is located at 49°31'42 "N, 16°14'13 "E, at an altitude of 560m. The climatic conditions are described as cool and dry, the average annual precipitation was 609.3 mm and the mean annual temperature was 7.2 °C between 1981 and 2010. This area is characterised by low soil quality and the potential risk of late frosts; the soil type is classified as dystric cambisol. The field experiment of rain guards to reduce soil water availability was carried out from 2015 to 2020. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of different water availability (rain-out shelter vs. control) on the performance of selected field crops (spring barley, winter wheat, winter oilseed rape, rye, and silage maize). In addition to a weather station on the experimental field measuring air temperature, relative humidity, global radiation, precipitation and wind, soil moisture was also monitored in the different rain-out shelter and control plots with TDR sensors (0-30 cm). In this way, the reduction in the amount of precipitation during the rain-out shelter treatment could be confirmed by measuring the soil water content. To answer the research question, various descriptive statistical parameters such as mean, percentiles, minimum and maximum were used. For instance, the average yield reduction over the 6 years for maize was 16%, while for rape it reached a value of up to 32%. In addition, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied to the yields of the different crops.

Acknowledgement: This study was conducted with support of SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797).

How to cite: Thaler, S., Eitzinger, J., Hlavinka, P., Pohankova, E., and Trnka, M.: Effects on soil water content and productivity of selected crops in a field experiment with rain-out shelter vs. control plot in the Czech Republic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6248, 2022.

EGU22-7469 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Future scenarios of the African Rice System: Climatic and Socio-economics Pathways 

Koen De Vos, Charlotte Janssens, Liesbet Jacobs, Benjamin Campforts, Esther Boere, Petr Havlík, Miet Maertens, and Gerard Govers

Between 1990-2018, annual rice consumption in Africa has quadrupled to around 40 Mt. This surge can be attributed to an interplay between rapid population growth and dietary shifts. Despite recent yield advances, rice production increases are lagging behind the growing demand, making the region increasingly import-dependent. Even after the 2008 food crisis, succeeding which many African policymakers presented rice as a flagship for food security by boosting domestic rice-production capacity, Africa’s reliance on the international market remains large. Currently, increases in production capacity are driven by acreage extensification rather than intensification, putting pressure on land and jeopardizing sustainable development. How the production of rice will further develop in Africa, and how sustainable this development will be in terms of food security and available land under changing socio-economic and climatic conditions is uncertain.                    
This research assesses future developments of the African rice system under different socio-economic and climatic scenarios by combining biophysical crop model projections (EPIC) with a spatial economic partial-equilibrium model (GLOBIOM) through the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) frameworks.

Our results suggest that by 2050, socioeconomic pressures will have a larger impact on future production levels than long-term climate changes on the African rice system. This is mainly explained by strong differences in population estimates between SSP scenarios and by a limited effect of climate change on yields as negative climatic effects including heat- and water stress are projected to be largely outbalanced by CO2-fertilization effects for rice in Africa. Our simulations do suggest that the expected increase in climatic variability will result in increasing fluctuations in annual yields and production levels in comparison to historical variability. Regions dominated by rainfed systems are particularly vulnerable to such climate shocks, leading not only to variations in production but also in import and consumption levels. Our results also show that disruptions in production have effects beyond the climate-affected region due to bilateral trade. Particularly production shocks in Southeast Asia could have a strong impact on rice availability in Africa because of the vast import dependency of Africa. The magnitude of the effect of a climate-induced production shock in Southeast Asia on rice consumption levels in some African regions is even comparable to the effect of a similar climate shock on domestic production. Since the robustness of the analysis is strongly linked to the performance of the biophysical crop model, we also present a comparison of these preliminary results to other existing biophysical global gridded crop models (GGCMs).          

In summary, we demonstrate that future socio-economic pathways have a more important impact on the African rice system than climate changes in the long term, but that increases in the short-term climate variability strongly affect production and consumption. While trade may partially offset a negative effect of a climate-induced production shock on rice consumption in Africa through increased imports, trade and Africa’s import dependence make the continent as vulnerable to climate-induced production shocks in Southeast Asia as in Africa itself.

How to cite: De Vos, K., Janssens, C., Jacobs, L., Campforts, B., Boere, E., Havlík, P., Maertens, M., and Govers, G.: Future scenarios of the African Rice System: Climatic and Socio-economics Pathways, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7469, 2022.

EGU22-7581 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Impact of climate change on bioclimatic zoning of chestnut trees in Portugal 

Teresa Raquel Freitas, João A. Santos, Ana P. Silva, and Hélder Fraga

Chestnut tree cultivation is largely spread worldwide, with approximately 596 × 103 ha devoted to fruit production, raising global production to approximately 2.5 million t, with an upward trend of 56 × 103 t per year. In the European Union, Portugal is the largest chestnut producer (38,870 ha). In  ecent years, the country has shown an increasing trend of 723 ha per year, and the production was 35,830 t in 2019, but largely concentrated in the northeast. In the present study, bioclimatic indices are applied to analyse the spatial distribution of chestnut trees in mainland Portugal, namely degree days (suitability interval: 1900–2400ºD), annual mean temperature (8–15ºC), monthly mean maximum temperature <32ºC, and annual precipitation (600–1600 mm). These indices are assessed for both historical (1989–2005, from IBERIA01) and future (from EURO-CORDEX) climates, within three sub periods: 2021–2041, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080, and under two anthropogenic radiative forcing pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the historical period, in terms of degree days, the suitability for chestnut tree cultivation (i.e., percentage of years fulfilling the predefined interval) is 10% in southern Portugal, whereas much higher values are found at high elevations in the north (50–90%). For the annual mean temperature, most of northern Portugal shows almost 100% suitability. Concerning the maximum temperature, the suitability reduces from the west (100–90%) to the east (40%). Regarding the annual precipitation, the suitability is heterogeneous throughout the territory, with areas under 50%. A compound index is also defined, revealing suitability from 100 to 75% over northern Portugal, while central and southern Portugal show values in the approximate range of 25–50%. For future climates, a progressive and significant reduction in suitability was found, particularly for RCP8.5 and in the long-term period. Therefore, climatic changes embody an important threat to chestnut tree cultivation in Portugal, potentially affecting the plant physiology and phenology, ultimately leading to a reduction of the cultivation areas and yield. Adaptation strategies are critical to mitigate climate change detrimental impacts. It is indeed essential to implement measures that promote chestnut orchards’ adaptive capacity, reducing vulnerability and risks of exposure to increasingly warm and dry climates, but also warranting the sustainability of the sector.

Acknowledgments: The work is financed by the CoaClimateRisk project (COA/CAC/0030/2019) financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT).

How to cite: Freitas, T. R., Santos, J. A., Silva, A. P., and Fraga, H.: Impact of climate change on bioclimatic zoning of chestnut trees in Portugal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7581, 2022.

EGU22-9656 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Climate-change impacts and adaptation for Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture 

Bram Droppers, Iwan Supit, Rik Leemans, Michelle van Vliet, and Fulco Ludwig

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable counties in terms climate-change impacts on its agricultural productivity. Agriculture is not only the largest sector in Pakistan’s economy, the food security of its over 220 million inhabitants also strongly depends on its production. As Pakistan’s arid croplands are extensively irrigated, agricultural productivity is affected by increasing temperatures (projected to increase up to 6°C between 2000 and 2100 under a limited climate-change mitigation scenario), changes in water availability (i.e. river streamflow and groundwater resources) and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]; affecting both crop productivity and water use efficiency).

Here we present the impacts of climate change on Pakistan’s primary cereal crops: wheat and rice. Impacts are quantified by combining several climate-change scenarios with a process-based coupled hydrological-crop model, VIC-WOFOST. VIC-WOFOST comprehensively estimates changes in crop growth, water resources and their interactions under climate change. Moreover, the role of elevated [CO2] on agricultural productivity and sustainable water use is specifically assessed. We then explore the possibilities and limitations of agricultural adaptation to enable sustainable food security for Pakistan under various climate-change and population growth scenarios.

Our results show that climate-change will severely affect Pakistan’s agriculture, especially due increased temperatures and crop heat stress. However, climate-change adaptation can potentially mitigate some of these effects, especially for wheat production. Moreover, with sufficient agricultural adaptation, climate-change can even be beneficial for Pakistan’s agriculture due to the benefits of elevated [CO2]. While our study is focussed on  Pakistan, it indicates pathways for sustainable food production under climate change that may also be important for other regions that strongly depend on irrigated agriculture.

How to cite: Droppers, B., Supit, I., Leemans, R., van Vliet, M., and Ludwig, F.: Climate-change impacts and adaptation for Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9656, 2022.

EGU22-10151 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Assessment of Climate Suitability for Cherry (Prunus avium L.) in Turkey in a Changing Climate 

Nazan An, M. Tufan Turp, Zekican Demiralay, and M. Levent Kurnaz

Cherry (Prunus avium L.) is one of the most important export crops in Turkey and Turkey has a globally significant share in cherry production with 26%. Although cherry is mostly a temperate climate fruit, different types can be grown in the regions with climate and vegetation diversities. However, it is possible to talk about irregularities and decreases in yield due to climate variability in those regions. Provinces, which are Turkey's main cherry producers, are affected by average and extreme temperature changes from climate change, and the need for alternative areas for cherry production is gradually increasing. For this reason, it is very important to see whether the cherry with high commercial value will grow in the same regions in the future due to climatic changes or new alternative areas will emerge for this fruit. Therefore, this study aims to observe climate impacts on cherry growing regions in the main producer provinces. Hereunder, in the study, climate data with 10 km resolution was obtained using a regional climate model, i.e., RegCM4.4, under the RCP8.5 pessimistic scenario for the future period of 2021-2050 with respect to the period of 1991-2018 for different phenological periods and the climate suitability index was calculated. Although regional differences are observed in the model result, it indicates that biological development of cherry in Turkey may be affected by the increase in average temperature and extreme temperature changes due to climate change.

Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Boğaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 17601.

 

How to cite: An, N., Turp, M. T., Demiralay, Z., and Kurnaz, M. L.: Assessment of Climate Suitability for Cherry (Prunus avium L.) in Turkey in a Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10151, 2022.

EGU22-10310 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Environmental Module of the Integrated Assessment Model WILIAM 

Tomás Calheiros, Tiago Lourenço, Margarita Mediavilla, Noelia Alonso, Tiziano Distefano, and Iván Ramos-Diez

The main objective of LOCOMOTION research is to increase the robustness, transparency, accessibility, usability and reliability of the MEDEAS set of the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), developing a new set of nested models. This structure allows for flexibly testing, improving and expanding each module without impairing the robustness of the models. One of the purposes is also to expand the geographical coverage and detail by creating a new multi-regional world model with 9 global regions and integrating the 27 EU countries.

The new approach includes an Environmental module covering the Land and Water modules and also a climate module. This module has been split into several submodules which are structured as: Diets, Water, Land management, Land Products Availability, Climate, Land Use and Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and agriculture emissions. The six submodules related to Land (Forests, Wood Production, Croplands, Yields, Grasslands and Land Uses) calculate the availability of land products from forests and agricultural lands. In the land module, also agriculture and LULUCF emissions are endogenously calculated.

The water module is divided in two parts: demand and availability. The demand includes the use of water by economic sectors and households on the base of the water intensity. The water availability is defined at the country scale and depends on the volume of freshwater net of the share that must be kept ensuring basic environmental services and functions.

The climate module in WILIAM is divided in different parts. The first includes the links with the other modules: energy, industry, agriculture and LULUCF emissions, where the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions not calculated endogenously are consistent with the RCP scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways). Other important element of this module is Climate, which includes modelling of GHG cycles, climate variables and climate change impacts. The first computes the cycle of each GHG separately and the interactions between cycles, including carbon, methane and nitrous oxide.

The modelling of climate variables intends to calculate the total radiative forcing of each gas and their contribution to the global temperature change. The main outputs of the climate module are the total radiative forcing, the mean global temperature change (Capellán-Pérez et al., 2017), the sea level rise and the ocean acidification. Climate change impacts modelling includes the regionalization of climate variables at each climate zone to model impacts considering the heterogeneity of climate in different areas of the Earth, the modelling of impacts on forests (on Net Primary Productivity), on water availability, and in crop yields.

Preliminary results indicate, for example, that land for forest and irrigated crops will decrease in the all climate zones and future scenarios, for 2050. In climate module, temperature change will be larger in polar than in tropical climates.

 

References: Capellán-Pérez, I., De Blas, I., Nieto, J., Castro, C., Miguel, L.J., Mediavilla, M., Carpintero, Ó., Rodrigo, P., Frechoso, F., Cáceres, S., 2017. EU Framework Program for Research and Innovation actions (H2020 LCE-21-2015) Guiding European Policy toward a low-carbon economy . Modelling sustainable Energy system Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraints. Medeas-Ue 1, 1–254.

How to cite: Calheiros, T., Lourenço, T., Mediavilla, M., Alonso, N., Distefano, T., and Ramos-Diez, I.: Environmental Module of the Integrated Assessment Model WILIAM, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10310, 2022.

EGU22-10522 | Presentations | CL3.2.5

Climate change risks in agricultural plant production of Serbia 

Mirjam Vujadinovic Mandic, Ana Vuković Vimić, Zorica Ranković-Vasić, Marija Ćosić, Dejan Đurović, Željko Dolijanović, Aleksandar Simić, Aleksa Lipovac, and Ljubomir Životić

Over the last two decades, Serbian agriculture has suffered increased losses and damages due to the more frequent occurrence of the extreme weather events caused by the climate change. The most significant losses are recorded in years with droughts and high summer temperature (such as 2012 and 2017). Significant losses in orchards are caused by the frost in late winter or early spring, when the flowering occurs early, due to a prolonged period of unusually high temperatures. On the other hand, damages caused by low winter temperatures are decreasing.

In order to assess the risk levels brought by the climate change and extreme weather events to the agricultural plant production in different regions of the country, analyzed are frequency of the occurrence of the weather events that may have significant negative effect to the yields of the most important crops (corn, maize, sunflower, soybeans) and fruits (plum, peach, raspberry, apple, wine grape), as well as pastures and meadows. Vulnerability is assessed through the analysis of agricultural production structure in the administrative districts of Serbia.

Weather events with potentially negative effect to yields and most vulnerable phenophases are defined for each crop or fruit considered in the analysis. For each plant and each potentially dangerous weather event one or more bioclimatic indices were adopted and calculated for the past, present and future. For the present (2000-2019), daily data on temperature and precipitation were used from the eOBS gridded observations dataset. Results of 8 regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative were combined into an ensemble. The ensemble was constructed upon the evaluation of their ability to simulate past climate characteristics over the country. The chosen simulations are done under the RCP8.5 IPCC greenhouse gasses emission scenario, for the periods 1986-2005, 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100.

Results showed that projected frequencies of the events such are water deficit and/or droughts and high temperatures in the critical phenophases of the considered plants, and late spring frost, are increasing in the future. The median value of the frequency of those weather events projected for the next 20 years is mostly already reached. Therefore, more weight is given to the 75th percentile of the ensemble projections for the increasing risks and the 25th percentile for the decreasing risks, as upper and lower limits of the most probable range of the future climate changes.

This assessment is used for drafting the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan in order to propose and prioritize adaptation measures for the agricultural sector in the Republic of Serbia, on the national and administrative districts level.

Acknowledgment: This research is supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, through PROMIS project “Integrated Agro-Meteorological Prediction System” (IAPS), grant no 6062629 and United Nations Development Program and Green Climate Fund through the project “Advancing Medium and Long-term adaptation planning in the Republic of Serbia”.

How to cite: Vujadinovic Mandic, M., Vuković Vimić, A., Ranković-Vasić, Z., Ćosić, M., Đurović, D., Dolijanović, Ž., Simić, A., Lipovac, A., and Životić, L.: Climate change risks in agricultural plant production of Serbia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10522, 2022.

Agricultural drought is attributed to the deficit of soil moisture in the agricultural area for a period, and might cause the crops failure during the specific growth period. This issue has drawn increasing attention in the contemporary climate change episode. In the first half of 2021, the delayed and reduced spring rains were anomalously insufficient and had induced severe impacts on the agricultural production of southwest Taiwan. The aim of this study is thus to understand the dynamic change of drought and its associated impact during the two main harvest periods in the main agricultural region of southwestern Taiwan. We analyze a time series of indices such as Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), Vegetation Supply Water Index (VSWI), and Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI). These indices are derived from MODIS datasets, including 8-day MOD11 LST and MOD13 NDVI products at 1 km resolution, in 2011–2021. Next, a supplemental dataset derived from optical satellite images is used for land-use classification, which could allow us to characterize actual agricultural zones in the region of interest. We also collect the statistics of paddy rice yield surveyed by the Agriculture and Food Agency of Taiwan for calibration between yield and drought indices.

The preliminary results show that the TVDI, TCI, VCI, VHI, VSWI have higher correlation in the 1st paddy rice harvest stage (Late June) of dry season than the 2nd paddy rice harvest stage (Mid-November) among the time series. The correlation coefficient is -0.88, 0.66, -0.85, 0.50, and 0.66, respectively. These indicated that the 1st paddy rice harvest stage could be more sensitive to the high temperature and deficit precipitation during the growing season.

Keywords:Agricultural drought monitoring, MODIS, PRISMA, Drought indices

How to cite: Chiu, S.-W. and Tseng, K.-H.: Evaluating The Impact of Agriculture Drought by Remote Sensing Drought Indices in 2011–2021: A Case Study of Southwest Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10820, 2022.

EGU22-10865 | Presentations | CL3.2.5 | Highlight

Modelling the irrigation water demand through integration of irrigation scheme with NASA-Land Information System Framework (LISF)  in India 

Manika Gupta, Prashant K Srivastava, Kristi R Arsenault, and Atul K Sahai

The current study provides the irrigation water estimate based on incorporation of satellite-derived irrigation scheme and crop datasets into the NASA-Land Information System Framework (LISF) in India. NOAH 3.3 land surface model within NASA-LISF was run at 0.05-degree resolution for nine years from 2011 to 2019. The irrigation scheme accurately captures the seasonality and the two growing seasons that is December-March and August-November. The MODIS leaf area index product helps to regulate the seasonality and estimated irrigation amount and timing is based on 50% depletion of soil moisture at the field capacity in the rootzone. The results show that the evapotranspiration (ET) and latent heat flux (LE) have increased significantly in the cropped region with improvement in correlation with the MODIS ET and LE products. The study also shows an improvement in soil moisture simulation at the test sites (Varanasi and Gujarat). Besides, successfully demonstrating the irrigation timing and quantity, the present study can also be relevant to hydrological and energy fluxes studies of areas that still lack proper quantification of agricultural practices utilizing irrigation.

How to cite: Gupta, M., Srivastava, P. K., Arsenault, K. R., and Sahai, A. K.: Modelling the irrigation water demand through integration of irrigation scheme with NASA-Land Information System Framework (LISF)  in India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10865, 2022.

EGU22-12605 | Presentations | CL3.2.5 | Highlight

SimSphere: a software toolkit to facilitate teaching and research in the study of Land Surface Interactions 

George P. Petropoulos, Daniela F. Silva-Fuzzo, Yangson Bao, Ionut Sandric, Dimitris Triantakonstantis, Spyridon E. Detsikas, Prashant K. Srivastava, and Salim Lamine

Climate change is facilitating large scale changes within the atmosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere evidenced globally at a variety of geographical scales. Thus, understanding physical processes and the ways the different components of the Earth system interact has been identified today as a topic of key research investigation. Use of simulation process models has played a key role in extending our abilities to study Earth system processes and enhancing our understanding on how different components of it interplay. This is due to their computational efficiency, accuracy, and ability to provide results at fine temporal scales. Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) models have emerged recently as the preferred scientific tool to assess various parameters characterising the Earth system. Those can also be often combined with Earth Observation (EO) data, blending the horizontal coverage and spectral resolution of EO data with the fine temporal continuity and vertical coverage of those models. Several studies have drawn attention to this as a promising direction towards improving our ability to estimate key state variables characterising land surface interactions. SimSphere is such a software toolkit written in Java for simulating the interactions of soil, vegetation, and atmosphere layers of the Earth’s land surface. It is being used either as a stand-alone application or synergistically with EO data. This model since its foundation has evolved significantly both architecturally and functionally and its use has been widely demonstrated so far in a wide spectrum of interdisciplinary science investigations. Furthermore, it is currently used as an educational resource for students in several Universities Institutes globally. Herein, we focus on SimSphere which is used as a case of a successful paradigm of a SVAT model used in teaching and research activities relevant to the study of land surface processes. We provide an overview of the model use so far in a variety of applications and teaching activities whereas we also present the latest advancements conducted from our group in enhancing the model functionality which aim at making its use more robust when used both as a standalone application and synergistically with EO data. The present work is not only an important contribution to the continuously expanding group of the model users community, but it is also very timely more generally as it feeds to efforts currently ongoing by different groups globally towards the development of relevant operational products.
KEYWORDS: land surface, physical processes, SVAT, SimSphere, remote sensing, triangle

How to cite: Petropoulos, G. P., Silva-Fuzzo, D. F., Bao, Y., Sandric, I., Triantakonstantis, D., Detsikas, S. E., Srivastava, P. K., and Lamine, S.: SimSphere: a software toolkit to facilitate teaching and research in the study of Land Surface Interactions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12605, 2022.

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Hydrometeorological hazards produced 45.5% of all disasters over Mexico during the 1900–2018 period. On average, TCs represent 86.5% of the annual cost of disasters in Mexico, and the main TC hazard is the extreme rainfall they produced. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation. Thus, Mexico should be prepared to face more TC extreme rainfall events. Suggestions for how Mexico can meet the objectives of international risk agendas are discussed.

How to cite: Dominguez, C.: Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-851, 2022.

Farmers’ adaptation to climate change is a two-step process that involves perceiving stressors and identifying impacts to respond to variability and changes through specific actions and strategies. Hence, successful adaptation depends on how well changing climate is perceived, either from a ‘bottom-up’ pathway –where farmers observe and identify changes through past experience–, or by using a ‘top-down’ pathway –where changes are identified through climate records. A gap between both pathways tends to be related to farmers’ misperception. For example, as life experiences influence perception, farmers who have been directly affected by extreme climatic events tend to report that the probability of such event happening again is relatively high. Furthermore, as perception is in part a subjective phenomenon, therefore, different farmers in the same locality might construct different perceptions of climate change impacts even though they experience the same weather patterns. Consequently, increased attention has been put on combining the ‘civic science’ of farmers’ perceptions with the ‘formal science’ from meteorological reports to identify the (in)consistency between perceived and observed data and how this affect farmers’ resilience when facing climate change impacts. This contribution provides a review comparing farmers’ perception and climate observations to address a twofold research question: 1) Which extreme events and compound risks are perceived by farmers in contrast with observed data? And 2) How do past experiences and social-learning influence farmers’ resilience and their adaptive capacity? We analyze a portfolio of 147 articles collected from Scopus library catalogue since 2000. The bibliometrics analysis was coupled with the systematic review to 103 articles selected from the original portfolio. Comparison between perceived and observed changes were focus on what was changing (onset, duration or cessation regarding temperature and rainfall patterns) and how it was changing (amount, frequency, intensity or inter-annual variability). Results will be useful for managers, developers, and policymakers of climate adaptation strategies to be more in tune with farmers’ understandings of when and how weather is changing. Furthermore, the review could generate recommendations for the design, formulation, and implementation of adaptation policies that are better tailored to farmers’ perception at local conditions, being more efficient and conducive to risk analysis when facing climate change.

How to cite: Ricart, S., Gandolfi, C., and Castelletti, A.: Contrasting farmers’ perception of climate change and climatic data: How (in)consistency supports risk reduction and resilience?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-976, 2022.

EGU22-1099 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Robust change in population exposure to heat stress risk with increasing global warming. 

Nicolas Freychet, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Natalie S. Lord, Eunice Lo, Matthew Collins, and Dann Mitchell

There is no uniform definition of heat waves and many climate indices can be derived from the surface temperature. When considering the impact of heat on human health, heat stress needs to be considered. Several indicators of heat stress have are commonly used, such as the Heat Index (HI), the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) or the Wet-Bulb Temperature (Tw), all take into account the temperature and humidity. Each of these indices can be computed from non-linear empirical formula but they all use different scales which make results difficult to compare. Here we performed a comparative study using these 3 indices by defining corresponding levels of heat stress between the different metrics. We analyzed where sever, dangerous and deadly heat stress hazards will become more frequent, using climate model projections from CMIP6, and where the choice of the index makes a difference. For each index, we use a filtering techniques to remove models that cannot reproduce realistic extreme values during the current period (using a set of 4 different reanalyses as a reference). Following, we translated this risk in terms of country exposure and vulnerability, using population and GDP growth scenario.

We show that South and East Asia and Middle-East, as previously pointed out by many studies, are highly exposed to heat stress hazards. But more vulnerable countries with less resources for mitigation are also highlighted such as West Africa and Central and South America. For all these regions, about 20 to more than 50% of the population would be exposed to sever heat stress each year no matter the heat stress index chosen. European countries and USA will also be exposed several time per year to conditions of similar heat stress level than the 2003 heat wave. When going to more extreme hazards, especially when considering the “survivability threshold” of 35°C for Tw, different indices lead to more discrepancies in the results but similar regions can be identified as the most vulnerable.

How to cite: Freychet, N., Hegerl, G. C., Lord, N. S., Lo, E., Collins, M., and Mitchell, D.: Robust change in population exposure to heat stress risk with increasing global warming., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1099, 2022.

EGU22-1133 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Climate linkages between fire, population, and agriculture in the Maya lowlands 

Benjamin Keenan, Kevin Johnston, Andy Breckenridge, and Peter Douglas

Understanding past societal responses to climate change requires proxy indicators of human population, climate and land-use change. We apply a range of proxies to a lake sediment core from Laguna Itzan, a cenote adjacent to the ancient Maya population centre of Itzan, in order to examine the response of the lowland Maya to climatic and environmental change, which remains poorly understood. By combining molecular proxies for population (faecal stanols) and biomass burning (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons or PAHs) with isotopic analyses of plant wax n-alkanes as proxies for vegetation change (δ13C) and palaeohydrology (δ2H), we show the complex interplay of environmental and societal changes over 3300 years.

Leaf wax hydrogen isotope records show that drought between ca. 750 and 900 CE, thought to have been responsible for societal collapse or transformation across the Maya lowlands, is not expressed in the catchment of Itzan. This likely reflects spatial variability in the magnitude and timing of climate change. Population decline at Itzan may have been a result of instability caused by drought from other areas as a result of military incursions or through climate migration/an influx of climate refugees, pressures between neighbouring polities, or disruptions to trade networks or regional food production systems.

Leaf wax carbon isotope ratios indicate brief intervals of intensive maize agriculture, generally associated with wet periods, but this expansion of maize agriculture is not long lasting, and often returns to baseline levels of C4 plant abundance. In addition to the earlier presence of humans at this site than currently indicated in the Itzan archaeological record based on the abundance of faecal stanols, we infer cultivation of maize around 4000 year BP, and potentially earlier. Further, analysis of the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons suggests that fire in the catchment transitioned over the past 3500 years from intense fires associated with slash and burn, or swidden, agriculture to a less intense fire regime following initial land clearance.

Our data indicate that human population dynamics and patterns of land clearance for agriculture varied substantially throughout the sediment core record, and that palaeoclimatic change may have driven these patterns. 

How to cite: Keenan, B., Johnston, K., Breckenridge, A., and Douglas, P.: Climate linkages between fire, population, and agriculture in the Maya lowlands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1133, 2022.

Rockfall in high mountains is perceived to change more than other mass-wasting processes, presumably as a result of ongoing climate warming and the related, increasing degradation of permafrost. However, the systematic lack of longer-term observational records of rockfall largely hampers any in-depth assessment of how process activity may have been altered by a warming climate and its variability since pre-industrial times. Here, we present evidence that the ongoing climate warming in the Swiss Alps indeed controls rockfall activity from degrading permafrost, and that changes in rockfall frequency correlate significantly with warming air temperature since the 1880s. Using this dataset, we then look into rockfall risk by combining changes in process activity with socio-deconomic developments at the study site. We illustrate how rockfall risk has changed over the past 140 years and how it might change over the course of the 21st century. hile more rockfall and larger volumes occur nowadays as compared to the early 20th century, rockfall risk has increased mostly due to changes in exposure and vulberability and only partly due to changes in process activity itself.

How to cite: Stoffel, M., Corona, C., and Ballesteros, J.: Climate warming enhances rockfall activity from permafrost environments - but rockfall risk increases primarily due to larger exposure and vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2010, 2022.

EGU22-2083 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

The Combined QBO and ENSO Influence on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Atlantic Ocean 

Alejandro Jaramillo, Christian Dominguez, Graciela Raga, and Arturo I. Quintanar

The Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) largely modulate the zonal wind in the tropics. Previous studies showed that QBO phases produce changes in deep convection through an increase/decrease in the tropopause height over the tropics and subtropics. This study investigates the combined effects of QBO and ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) activity by modulating tropopause height. We found that tropopause height increases over the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean region, and the Western North Atlantic Ocean during La Niña + QBOW, allowing deeper tropical convection to develop over those regions. As a consequence, TC activity over those regions is not only increased in number but also enhanced in intensity. Conversely, during El Niño + QBOE, most deep tropical convection is inhibited over those same regions due to the decrease in tropopause height over the subtropics. We conclude that QBO effects on TCs and deep convection should be studied in combination with ENSO. Since TCs are among the most dangerous natural hazards, causing severe economic losses and high mortality, this signal of the QBO+ENSO on TCs could be key for planning activities before the beginning of the season, which might help reduce disaster risk and economic impacts on society, enhancing resilience.

How to cite: Jaramillo, A., Dominguez, C., Raga, G., and Quintanar, A. I.: The Combined QBO and ENSO Influence on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Atlantic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2083, 2022.

EGU22-2304 | Presentations | CL3.2.6 | Highlight

Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Mental Health & Well-Being – Key Findings from a Global ‘Scoping’ Literature Review 

Carlos Chique, Paul Hynds, Marguerite Nyhan, Sharon Lambert, Martin Boudou, and Jean O'Dwyer

Available evidence indicates Extreme Weather Event (EWE) frequency has increased significantly in the last ⁓ 70 years along a 0.5°C global temperature rise. As such, a major concern arising from global warming projections are the potential impacts of increasingly frequent and intense EWEs on public health and societal well-being. The substantial toll of EWEs on socio-economic and physical health is well understood. Yet, due to a range of methodological impediments, the impact EWEs on psychological health and well-being remain less certain. Within this context, this literature review aimed to provide an “empirical” baseline of the psychological and well-being impacts of individuals exclusively exposed to EWEs. Given the wide range of psychological and well-being metrics available in the literature, the review was grounded on a ‘holistic’ approach with the all-encompassing concept of “psychological impairment” adopted. Here, impairment data, or morbidity, was pooled at the level of key Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) psychological “Domains”, including PTSD, Anxiety and Depression. Morbidity data was also pooled at a “composite” (any impairment) category encompassing all employed DSM-based domains. Further, reported risk factors (p < 0.05) and pooled odds ratios (pOR) were extracted and calculated from each pertinent study. Overall, 59 peer-reviewed investigations accounting for 61,443 EWE-exposed individuals comprised the review dataset. A “composite” post-exposure pooled-prevalence rate of 23% was estimated along with values of 24% for depression and ⁓ 17% for both PTSD and anxiety. Notably, estimated pOR (1.9) indicate a > 90% likelihood of a negative psychological outcome or impaired well-being among exposed individuals. Methodologically, a prevalent lack of integration of “control” criterion among reviewed investigations was identified. In this context, pooled data collated can be considered more akin to “prevalence” rates rather than a finite metric of “incidence” linking EWE exposure and outcomes. Collation of reported risk factors indicate more pronounced impacts among individuals with higher levels of EWE exposure (14.5%) and socio-demographic traits which are often associated with vulnerable population sub-groups, including female gender (10%), lower socio-economic status (5.5%), and a lower education level (5.2%). Regionally, Asia exhibited the highest impairment rates which is tentatively attributed to a combination of high EWE frequency and population density. The findings of this study provide a quantitative evidence base which can be used to inform public health intervention strategies focusing on exposed populations in the aftermath of EWEs.

How to cite: Chique, C., Hynds, P., Nyhan, M., Lambert, S., Boudou, M., and O'Dwyer, J.: Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Mental Health & Well-Being – Key Findings from a Global ‘Scoping’ Literature Review, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2304, 2022.

EGU22-2647 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Multivariate Approach Reveals a Higher Likelihood of Compound Warm-wet Spells in Urban India 

Sucheta Pradhan and Poulomi Ganguli

Floods, heatwaves, and humid heat stress often lead to extreme consequences that threaten human health, economic stability, and resilience to natural and built environments. According to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, heat stress has steadily increased over the Indian subcontinent. Along with the increase in heat stress, the frequency of heavy precipitation and flood events has grown over multiple locations across South Asia. Most studies assessed trends in heatwave and dry spells over South Asia, emphasizing sensible heat (dry bulb temperature) only and mostly performed attribution and risk analyses considering one driver at a time. A few studies have presented a climate-informed pluvial flood risk model accounting for sensible heat flux, neglecting the influence of humidity. However, very few studies have explored the compound role of humid heat stress followed by extreme precipitation within a limited time window. Here we show the concurrence of humid heat stress (i.e., heatwave compounded by humidity, hereafter HHS) and peak rain events in major urban locations across climatologically disparate monsoon sub-regions of India using ground-based observations. The observational evidence reveals the cities across the western half of the country show positive dependence between humid heat stress and extreme precipitation, whereas those located over the eastern half showed negative correlations. Our findings suggest the role of moisture transport in amplifying precipitation intensity preconditioned by HHS. Further, our joint hazard assessment model identifies potential hotspots where the humid heat stress is likely to intensify the precipitation extremes and consequently have extreme impacts of consecutive disasters (close succession of heatwave and heavy rainfall) over densely populated urban locations. The derived insights provide a clear rationale for assessing heatwave-induced pluvial flood response in a multi-hazard framework, which has implications for climate adaptations, ensuring science-policy cooperation.  

How to cite: Pradhan, S. and Ganguli, P.: Multivariate Approach Reveals a Higher Likelihood of Compound Warm-wet Spells in Urban India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2647, 2022.

EGU22-2936 | Presentations | CL3.2.6 | Highlight

Health-relevant, compound ozone and temperature events over Europe 

Sally Jahn and Elke Hertig

High concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) and elevated levels of air temperature both represent natural hazards and health-relevant events. Two natural hazards occurring at the same time and contributing to a severe human health risk are defined as compound events. Co-occurring and hence compound ozone and temperature events pose a significant health risk and can lead to an intensified health burden for the European population (e.g., Hertig et al. 2020). 

Previous studies already point to the fact that the relationship of underlying main drivers with one or both hazards, their linkage as well as projected future frequency shifts of compound occurrences show spatial and temporal variations (e.g., Otero et al. 2016; Jahn, Hertig 2020). There is also evidence that compound events become more frequent in Europe during the 21st century due to climate change (e.g., Jahn, Hertig 2020; Hertig 2020). Consequently, recent and upcoming European protection and resilience strategies need to focus on region-specific current and future environmental and climatic conditions.

In our current contribution we focus on health-relevant compound events by jointly evaluating elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels at a regional scale in Europe. A regionalization based on cluster analysis divides the European domain into regions of coherent ozone and temperature characteristics and variability. Spatiotemporally varying meteorological conditions which strongly influence the occurrence of compound events in the regions are identified. For projections until the end of the twenty-first century, the output of eight Earth System Models (ESMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is used.

The results from this study show the regional character of ozone and temperature patterns and variabilities as well as respective recent and future compound event occurrences. The results can be used as a basis for further research to adjust and specify current air pollution and climate change mitigation and adaption strategies.

Hertig, E. (2020) Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869-020-00811-z

Hertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020) Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271

Jahn, S., Hertig, E. (2020) Modeling and projecting health‐relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869‐020‐009610

Otero N., Sillmann J., Schnell J.L., Rust H.W., Butler T. (2016) Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/ 1748-9326/11/2/024005

How to cite: Jahn, S. and Hertig, E.: Health-relevant, compound ozone and temperature events over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2936, 2022.

EGU22-3036 | Presentations | CL3.2.6 | Highlight

Legacy effects and cascading impacts of climate extremes on ecosystems 

Ana Bastos, Xin Yu, and Mariana M. de Brito

Climate extremes impact ecosystems directly by imposing stress conditions and impairing normal functioning. Depending on its severity, recovery from a given event can take several years to decades, which results in compounding effects of recurrent extremes in time. Climate extremes can also have indirect impacts on ecosystems e.g., by increasing the hazard of concurrent disturbances, such as fires or insect outbreaks. The increased frequency or intensity of climate extremes due to anthropogenic climate change has, therefore, the potential to increase the likelihood of impact cascades.

Understanding the processes controlling ecosystem responses to and recovery from extreme events, and how temporally and/or spatially compounding events affect ecosystem dynamics is crucial to anticipate potential threats to ecosystem stability under a changing climate. Here, we will discuss challenges in quantifying direct and lagged impacts of extreme events on ecosystem functioning and present recent studies trying to overcome these challenges based on recent historical events. Finally, we will identify key needs in observations and methods to improve understanding on cascading ecological impacts from more frequent extreme events.

How to cite: Bastos, A., Yu, X., and de Brito, M. M.: Legacy effects and cascading impacts of climate extremes on ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3036, 2022.

Climate extremes induced by global warming have remarkable impacts on water resources, agricultural production, and terrestrial ecosystems. Climatic model simulations provide useful information to analyze changes in extremes (e.g., droughts, heatwaves) under global warming for climate policies and mitigation measures. However, systematic biases exist in climate model simulations, which hinders accurate assessments of extremes changes. Bias correction methods have been employed to correct biases in climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) in model simulations. Previous studies mostly focus on individual variables while the correction of inter-variable correlation (e.g., precipitation-temperature dependence) is still limited. Moreover, the concurrence of climate extremes (e.g., droughts and hot extremes), which is closely related to the dependence among contributing variables, may amplify the impacts. However, bias correction of the contributing variables of compound events is still limited but growing. In this study, we employ the multivariate bias correction (MBC) approach to correct the precipitation, temperature, and their dependence from CMIP6 simulations. We found that the MBC can improve the simulation of precipitation-temperature dependence and associated compound dry and hot events. This study can provide useful insights for improving model simulations of compound weather and climate extremes for impact studies and mitigation measures.

How to cite: Meng, Y. and Hao, Z.: Multivariate bias corrections of global compound dry and hot events in CMIP6 model simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3424, 2022.

EGU22-3763 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Modelling volcanically induced climatic perturbations and their impacts on palaeodemography around 13ka BP in Europe 

Laurits Andreasen, Felix Riede, and Claudia Timmreck

Climate and human populations can be said to make up a complex system with many possibilities for one component to impact another. Present day global warming is one example, yet examples are not limited to the Anthropocene but can also be found in the deep past.  The Laacher See Eruption (LSE) that occurred around 13,000 BP is one example of how climate, the environment and human palaeodemography interacted. Archaeological findings suggest the LSE potentially had strong and long-lasting impact on contemporary hunter-gatherer societies in some parts of Europe – in some sense the memory of the impact might even be considered infinite and hysteresis-like, since culture might have changed more permanently in the eruption’s wake. We investigated the climatic legacy of the LSE using computer-based models. This requires a model suite that deals with both physical, environmental, and demographical variables. For this we combine the MPI Earth System Model with a statistical model that estimates population densities and information on generation times in hunter-gatherer societies. This configuration allows us to estimate the size and duration of the impact the LSE had on climate variables and - via changes in the carrying capacity - palaeodemography. Our findings suggest that the palaeodemography of Late Glacial hunter-gatherer societies showed a memory of the initial environmental perturbation at a temporal scale exceeding that of the transient perturbation itself. The memory found in our models is, however, relatively short-lived, which could reflect the actual memory of the physico-social system, or limitations of our modelling approach. Further evaluation of the model against archaeological sites is needed to suggest what is the case.

How to cite: Andreasen, L., Riede, F., and Timmreck, C.: Modelling volcanically induced climatic perturbations and their impacts on palaeodemography around 13ka BP in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3763, 2022.

EGU22-4138 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

The impact of volcanism on the Holocene climate (536 AD and 540 AD) using the iLOVECLIM model and archaeological data within the Scandinavian Region 

Frank Arthur, Kailin Hatlestad, Daniel Löwenborg, Steinar Solheim, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Karl-Johan Lindholm, Didier M. Roche, and Hans Renssen

Volcanism is one of the main natural climate forcings at annual to multi-decadal timescales. Therefore, this forcing is important to study Holocene climate variability. Our main objective is to examine the impact of volcanism on the climate in the 6th century AD within the iLOVECLIM model and analyze the results with archeological data. We hypothesize that large volcanic eruptions around 536 AD and 540 AD contributed to cooling of the climate, resulted to the adversities of Late ancient societies throughout Europe, and caused a major environmental event in Iron Age Scandinavia.

In this work, we have made three groups of simulations with the iLOVECLIM model, representing the climate of 536 AD and 540 AD. Two scenarios include high and low volcanic activity forcing, while in the third scenario, volcanic forcing is absent. We applied a model version with dynamical downscaling to reach a spatial resolution that allows for a meaningful comparison with archeological data. We compared our model results with C14-dated archaeological records from Scandinavia to analyze the spatial intensity of land use during these time periods. An evaluation of the difference between these simulations will highlight the impact of the volcanic activity on early to mid-6th century Scandinavia.

This study demonstrates the link between climate and volcanism during these periods and shows the advantage of combining the archaeological records with climate data to understand human-environment interactions. Future research that considers both climatological and archaeological data can benefit our understandings of the impact extreme natural events had on the environment, the climate and people.

How to cite: Arthur, F., Hatlestad, K., Löwenborg, D., Solheim, S., Loftsgarden, K., Lindholm, K.-J., Roche, D. M., and Renssen, H.: The impact of volcanism on the Holocene climate (536 AD and 540 AD) using the iLOVECLIM model and archaeological data within the Scandinavian Region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4138, 2022.

EGU22-4356 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Linkage among different compound drought-hot events at a global scale 

Sifang Feng, Zengchao Hao, Fanghua Hao, and Xuan Zhang

Droughts manifest in different forms, such as meteorological droughts, agricultural droughts, and hydrological droughts. Due to common forcing factors or land-atmosphere interactions, droughts may co-occur with high-temperature extremes over global land areas. The concurrence of droughts and hot extremes (or CDHEs) has received increased attention in the past decade, owing to their amplified impacts on society and ecosystems. Changes in different forms of CDHEs under global warming have been evaluated at different regional scales. However, the investigation of linkages among different CDHEs is rather rare. In this study, we assessed the variation and connection among different CDHEs during the warm period at the global scale based on the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). We found an increased frequency of different CDHEs in the past half-century over most regions. In addition, we also investigated their connection in the variability at different climate regimes. Results on the linkage among different compound events can provide valuable information for water resources management under global warming.

How to cite: Feng, S., Hao, Z., Hao, F., and Zhang, X.: Linkage among different compound drought-hot events at a global scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4356, 2022.

Abrupt climate changes and consequent environmental changes have been repeatedly suggested as driving factors behind the rise and collapse of prehistoric and historical communities. The Near East experienced several major rapid climate changes during the Holocene (10.2 k, 9.2 k, 8.2 k, 4.2 k, and 3.2 k events cal. year BP). The Anatolian Peninsula represents an excellent laboratory for investigating the long-term relationships between these experienced climatic trends and settlement strategies. In this article, based on the analysis of 234 archaeological settlements that were active between the Chalcolithic (c. 6000 BC) and the Iron Age (c. 2600 BC) identified during different surveys carried out in the Delice Valley, the settlement strategies in the region over a period of approximately 3500 years, We examine it in detail in the light of past climatic conditions.

While trying to understand in detail this complex and non-linear relationship network between landscape and society, we aim to answer the following questions. First; What is the relationship between the organization of social groups in the landscape and the climate? Could the strategies (adaptive behaviors and resistances) developed by communities against changing environmental conditions be reflected in organizational changes? Second; Are there differences in the distribution patterns of settlements throughout the landscape? Finally; What are the possible reasons why the research area is settled with low density in some periods?  In this study; From the spatial statistics modules of ArcGIS; We modeled the spatial distribution patterns of settlements in the Delice Valley using the Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN) and GrassGIS's r.geomorphon modules.

We modeled the Early-Middle Holocene climate of the Delice Basin using the Macrophysical Climate Model and CHELSA-TraCE21k outputs. The general situation of Delice Valley, which is derived from the paleoclimate model, shows that the region has an arid climate structure and these conditions were settled in the Early Holocene. Although there was no change in the paleoclimatic structure of Delice Valley during the Middle and Late Holocene periods, the presence of significant ups and downs is important. It seems that the Delice Valley was heavily occupied in the middle Holocene. However, the spatial distribution of the settlements differs from each other periodically. It is not possible to interpret the differences in these site preferences independently of the Middle Holocene river activity. It is certain that the severe rise and fall of precipitation in the Middle Holocene had an important role on the position of ancient communities in the topography and neighborhood relations. Severe peaks observed in precipitation values in the Chalcolithic period forced people to prefer ridges away from the main river bed and exhibit a dispersal distribution pattern. On the contrary, the changes seen in the middle levels in the Early Bronze Age allowed the invasion of the floodplain. Geography and climatic conditions illustrated the settlement strategies of people and the fact of how they organize themselves in the landscape in our model results.

Keywords; Early-Middle Holocene, Paleoclimate, GIS, Delice Valley, Settlement Strategies.

How to cite: Kocaklı, K. and Arıkan, B.: Settlement Distribution patterns as indicators of Climate conditions of the Middle-Late Holocene; A Case study on the Delice Valley (North-Central Anatolia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4491, 2022.

EGU22-4575 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

The existential space of climate change and systemic risks 

Christian Huggel, Laurens M. Bouwer, Sirkku Juhola, Reinhard Mechler, Veruska Muccione, Ben Orlove, and Ivo Wallimman-Helmer

Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the cascading processes of impacts through complex and interconnected systems are poorly understood. In fact, the high end of the risk, i.e. where risks become existential, is poorly framed, defined and analyzed by science. This gap is at odds with the fundamental relevance of existential and systemic risks for humanity, and it also limits the ability of scientific communities to engage with the emerging debates and narratives about the existential dimension of climate change that have recently gained considerable traction.

In this contribution we address this gap by scoping and defining existential risks related to climate change. We first review the context of existential risks and climate change, as related to systemic risks and drawing on research in fields such as global catastrophic risks and the so-called “Reasons for Concern” in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also consider how existential risks are framed in the civil society climate movement and what we can learn in this respect from the COVID-19 crisis, which is also a primary learning space for better understanding for both, systemic and existential risks. We then develop a definition that distinguishes between a narrower scope of conditions that threaten survival and basic needs, and a broader scope of conditions that threaten a certain level of well-being, consisting of meeting acceptable living standards. Based on this, we define six dimensions of existential risks of climate change, including the mechanisms they unfold, the systems affected, the dimension and magnitude, the probability of occurrence, time horizon and speed, and the scale of the threat. Our contribution is intended to support further scientific analysis of existential and systemic risks as part of the full risk space associated with climate change. Considering the widespread lag in awareness and regulation related to systemic risks, the results of this study should make the risk space better defined, more tangible and hence more conducive to preventive action by policy.

How to cite: Huggel, C., Bouwer, L. M., Juhola, S., Mechler, R., Muccione, V., Orlove, B., and Wallimman-Helmer, I.: The existential space of climate change and systemic risks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4575, 2022.

EGU22-4827 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

A high-resolution, high-quantity approach to mollusc shell analysis and linking archaeological with climatic data. 

Niklas Hausmann, Danai Theodoraki, Victor Pinon, and Demetrios Anglos

This talk will outline how the immediate impact of climatic events on societies of the past can be identified and quantified more robustly by archaeological research using mollusc shell records.

Advances in data acquisition regarding speed and resolution promise improved access to this high-resolution climate archive, and thus an improved interdisciplinary palaeo-perspective. Different to most long-term climate archives, mollusc shells are often found on site and record temperature changes on a seasonal scale, allowing us to measure weather extremes on a resolution that a) would have been immediately noticeable by individuals and b) is essential to subsistence strategies. In particular, we hope to provide a better environmental backdrop to the question of the climatic impact on the Neolithic Dispersal along the Mediterranean coasts and verify extreme short-term events on site, should they have occurred.

We are employing an innovative way of acquiring sea surface temperature (SST) data using a combined approach of stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) and LIBS-screening (Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy), resulting in a lower quantity of δ18O values required per shell and, as a result, a higher quantity of sampled shells. Our improved data acquisition process enables us to use a high resolution (i.e. +1000 data points per shell record) as well as a high sample quantity (100s of shells) approach, that provides extensive coverage across entire site stratigraphies.

By sourcing our climate data from shell remains found in archaeological layers, we are able to directly compare archaeological information of that layer with the individual climate records, side-stepping the need of radiocarbon-dating either dataset extensively and instead using the shared stratigraphic position to infer temporal concurrence.

This high quantity and high resolution approach produces a combined natural and societal archive, that because of its size can more easily and robustly reveal links between society and the immediate climate change, extreme events and natural hazards it experienced.

How to cite: Hausmann, N., Theodoraki, D., Pinon, V., and Anglos, D.: A high-resolution, high-quantity approach to mollusc shell analysis and linking archaeological with climatic data., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4827, 2022.

EGU22-5319 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

The extreme heat wave of 2021 in Greece: intensity, duration, cumulative heat and all-time records on centennial scale 

Dimitra Founda, George Katavoutas, Fragiskos Pierros, and Nikolaos Mihalopoulos

Heat waves (HWs) rank among the most dangerous weather phenomena, with catastrophic impacts on societies and ecosystems. Since the beginning of the 21th century, many regions worldwide have been experiencing unprecedented extreme heat episodes. The Mediterranean countries in particular, are very prominent and vulnerable to climate change and heat-related risk. During summer 2021, Greece faced one of the worst HWs in its modern history, with exceptionally high temperatures prevailing from July 28th to August 6th. The special characteristics and the rarity of this event have been highlighted and evaluated through the historical climatic record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), dating since the mid 19th century.

The study analysed daily maximum (Tmax), mean (Tmean) and minimum (Tmin) air temperatures of the historical record, and estimated several indices of all HW episodes detected during the study period. The analysis showed that the HW of 2021 (HW2021) exceeded all previous records in a number of indices concerning the persistence, amplitude, mean intensity of HWs (based on Tmean and Tmin thresholds), but also ‘cumulative heat’ (an index combining both intensity and duration of a HW). Specifically, HW2021 was found to be the longest HW ever recorded at NOA (since the mid 19th century), with a total duration of 10 days. The amplitude of HW2021 (maximum temperature of the hottest day) was 43.9 0 C, representing the second highest temperature ever recorded at NOA, following the absolute record value of 44.8 0 C observed on June 26th 2007.

The most prominent features of HW2021 include the maintenance of very high temperatures throughout the whole 24-hour period and especially the elevated nighttime temperatures, inherent to the additive effect of the urban heat island in the city of Athens. The values of 31.6 and 36.5 0C for the daily minimum and mean temperatures respectively, represent the highest values ever recorded at NOA. National all-time temperature records were observed in other Greek stations, with maximum temperatures reaching up to 47 0C.  The prolonged hot and dry conditions triggered the ignition of catastrophic wildfires in Greece, with dramatic environmental and economic loss.

How to cite: Founda, D., Katavoutas, G., Pierros, F., and Mihalopoulos, N.: The extreme heat wave of 2021 in Greece: intensity, duration, cumulative heat and all-time records on centennial scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5319, 2022.

EGU22-5448 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Geographically varying temperature thresholds for societal attention and health impacts of heat waves 

Ekaterina Bogdanovich, Lars Guenther, Markus Reichstein, Alexander Brenning, Dorothea Frank, Mike S. Schäfer, Georg Ruhrmann, and René Orth

Heat waves have severe impacts on economy, ecosystems, and society. In many regions, hot temperature extremes are expected to become more frequent and intense in the future. It is not clear, however, to which extent Europeans perceive heat waves as important and potentially pressing issues, which may for example vary according to a region’s climatic conditions. We analyze and compare the response of societal attention and public health to heat waves across many European countries for the period 2010-2020. In particular, we consider Google search attention to heat waves (which summarizes relevant search requests with similar search terms and across languages), as well as related excess mortality and press mentions.

We explore several temperature-related variables in this context and find that societal attention and excess mortality are most strongly related to maximum temperatures. Further, these relationships exhibit a threshold behavior with a temperature above which the sensitivity of societal attention or excess mortality to temperature is clearly increased. Applying a piecewise regression analysis, we identify these temperature thresholds in the relationships of societal attention and mortality with temperature in each country. In general, we find higher temperature thresholds in countries with warmer climate. Thresholds vary strongly between relatively cold countries and are more similar across warmer countries. These results are consistent across Google search attention and mortality analyses, even though excess mortality tends to be less strongly related to temperature, as they are potentially affected by other factors.

The country-specific temperature thresholds identified from empirical data will further be used to study the countries’ preparedness for future climate conditions. In the next step, applying the thresholds to climate model projections, we will identify the expected annual number of relevant heat wave days and their trends until the end of the century. This allows us to identify regions and time periods with a high sensitivity to heat waves where improved management and adaptation are particularly important.

How to cite: Bogdanovich, E., Guenther, L., Reichstein, M., Brenning, A., Frank, D., Schäfer, M. S., Ruhrmann, G., and Orth, R.: Geographically varying temperature thresholds for societal attention and health impacts of heat waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5448, 2022.

EGU22-5465 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

TERRANOVA from the last and current Interglacial periods into the Anthropocene: an Atlas database drawing lessons from ancient land use for future European landscape management 

Sjoerd Kluiving, Didier Roche, Anhelina Zapolska, Elena Pearce, Jens-Christian Svenning, Kailin Hatlestad, Karl-Johan Lindholm, Anastasia Nikulina, Fulco Scherjon, Alexandre Martinez, Emily Vella, Maria-Antonia Serge, Florence Mazier, Marco Davoli, Frank Arthur, Hans Renssen, Katherine MacDonald, Wil Roebroeks, and Nestor Fernandez

TERRANOVA is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Networks (H2020-MSCA-ITN) project (2019-2023) training 15 PhD students in a new learning initiative between Humanities and Science: Mapping past environments and energy regimes, rethinking human-environment interaction and designing land management tools for policy. TERRANOVA will produce an unprecedented atlas with layers of reconstructed and modelled land-use and vegetation dynamics, climate change and mega-fauna history in Europe from the Eemian (Last Interglacial) and the Holocene from the start up until the present day. This paper describes the intermediate results of two years of research into Atlas building. Communication and data exchange, as well as the process of atlas generation work flow, have been undertaken, including examples of datasets from deep history, ancient landscapes, energy regimes and climate scenarios. The atlas database implements state-of-the-art standards for increasing the interoperability of spatiotemporal datasets. It is currently formed by four main data types: Archaeological data, Climate data, Land cover data, and Megafauna (i.e. large mammals) distribution. The intermediate publication concludes with listing the next steps to stream the Terranova atlas as a tool for communicating the European history of environmental change, including support for future landscape management policies.

How to cite: Kluiving, S., Roche, D., Zapolska, A., Pearce, E., Svenning, J.-C., Hatlestad, K., Lindholm, K.-J., Nikulina, A., Scherjon, F., Martinez, A., Vella, E., Serge, M.-A., Mazier, F., Davoli, M., Arthur, F., Renssen, H., MacDonald, K., Roebroeks, W., and Fernandez, N.: TERRANOVA from the last and current Interglacial periods into the Anthropocene: an Atlas database drawing lessons from ancient land use for future European landscape management, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5465, 2022.

EGU22-6454 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Rethinking the Agrarian Transition through the lens of long-term history of subsistence strategies and use of energy and resources in Cantabrian Spain 

Alexandre Martinez, Sjoerd Kluiving, José Muñoz-Rojas, César Borja Barrera, and Pablo Fraile Jurado

Human-triggered climate change is widely acknowledged as a salient challenge to societal sustainability and welfare. Yet, our understanding of how human social systems may react to future change scenarios remains largely incomplete. However, human societies are the result of a long history of changes and adaptations to changing climates and environments. Understanding how individuals and their cultures have reacted and adapted to environmental changes over history and what effects these changes have had on landscapes could help us to more effectively design transition strategies towards low carbon societies. Hunter-gatherer societies in Cantabrian Spain between the Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 20,000 BP) and the Agricultural Revolution during the Mid Holocene (ca. 6,000 BP) evolved within a context of strong climate and environmental changes, as well as through societal changes via the adoption of a sedentary economy. Energy Regimes is a time-independent and functional theoretical and analytical tool of past societies, useful to identify and document past transitions. Statistical tests and analyses were used on archaeological data to document proxies such as demography, mobility, societal complexity, economy and overexploitation. The results were interpreted in the framework of Energy Regimes to better understand the changes and adaptation of human societies leading to the Agricultural Revolution and beyond in the context of changing environment and climate. Finally, quantification of energy use was extrapolated from the data and compared to the framework of social-metabolism, a quantitative approach similar to Energy Regimes. This work is part of the TERRANOVA programme. TERRANOVA is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Networks (H2020-MSCA-ITN) project between Humanities and Science, which aims to map past environments and energy regimes, and to rethink human-environment interaction and designing land management tools for policy.

How to cite: Martinez, A., Kluiving, S., Muñoz-Rojas, J., Borja Barrera, C., and Fraile Jurado, P.: Rethinking the Agrarian Transition through the lens of long-term history of subsistence strategies and use of energy and resources in Cantabrian Spain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6454, 2022.

EGU22-7884 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Impact of natural hazards on global ecosystems 

Chahan M. Kropf, Lisa Vaterlaus, and David N. Bresch

Ultimately, human societies rely on the existence of functioning global ecosystems. Thus, avoiding the collapse of global ecosystems should be among the highest priorities of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. However, "protecting" ecosystems is a challenge much more complex than avoiding adverse effects on human infrastructures, societies, economies or lives. For instance, natural hazards such as wildfires or floods can play a *functional* role for ecosystems, with species requiring those events in their life-cycle. Therefore simply trying to avoid the at-first-sight devastating effects of natural hazards on ecosystems can be counter-productive, and even be damaging.  

Here we present a statistical study made with the open-source, probabilistic risk model CLIMADA [1] about the frequency and magnitude distribution of several natural hazards affecting global terrestrial ecosystems. The hazard modelling is based on historical data augmented with probabilistic methods, and thus can be interpreted as providing a snap-shot of "current conditions". This can then be used as a baseline to be contrasted with future projections of climate change and socio-economic development. Further, this baseline can inform studies on the functional and vital relationship between natural hazards and ecosystems, which are necessary to design appropriate protection measures.

CLIMADA: https://github.com/CLIMADA-project/climada_python 

[1] Aznar-Siguan, G. et al., GEOSCI MODEL DEV. 12, 7 (2019) 3085–97

How to cite: Kropf, C. M., Vaterlaus, L., and Bresch, D. N.: Impact of natural hazards on global ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7884, 2022.

Weather conditions refer to the state of the atmosphere at a specific time in a specific place. Changes in weather conditions influence human well-being by affecting the productivity of ecosystems and the quality of life. Climate change can affect weather conditions by changing the trend, frequency and extreme values of meteorological elements such as temperature, precipitation and humidity. The changes in weather conditions caused by climate change have had a serious impact on human well-being and will continue in the future. Therefore, assessing the impact of future climate change on weather conditions is of great significance for addressing climate change and promoting global sustainable development. However, the commonly used assessment indicators only describe the changes of weather conditions and do not consider the population exposure and people’s perceptions to the changes of weather conditions, which limits the significance of the evaluation results in improving human well-being and promoting regional sustainable development. Thus, taking the weather preference index (WPI) as the evaluation index and combined with the scenario framework provided by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), we evaluated the impact of global climate change on weather conditions under different scenarios from 2015 to 2100. First, we quantified global WPI from 1980 to 2015 based on global meteorological observation data. Then, combined with global climate model data, we analyzed global WPI from 2015 to 2100 under different scenarios. Finally, we used trend analysis to evaluate the impact of global climate change on weather conditions. We found that global weather conditions will deteriorate from 2015 to 2100, and the global average WPI will change at a rate of -0.05/10a. At the same time, we also found that more than 60% of the world's urban residents will live in regions with deteriorated weather conditions in the future. Under any scenario, there will still be 1.46 billion urban population living in regions with deteriorated weather conditions in 2100, accounting for 61.55% of the total urban population. Therefore, we suggest that countries should be as close to the narrative line of the green revival scenario (SSP1-2.6) as possible in the development process, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by means of terminal emission control, the development of clean energy and the introduction of ultra-low emission technologies. On top of that, resilience to climate change needs to be improved by improving public infrastructure and living conditions.

How to cite: Fang, Z.: Will global climate change make people more comfortable? A scenario analysis based on the weather preference index, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8152, 2022.

EGU22-8717 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Additional climate impacts of overshoot scenarios 

Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Jana Sillmann

We are approaching the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris agreement at a worrisome pace. Achieving this global temperature goal is physically still possible but would require drastic greenhouse gas emission reductions as well as the deployment of some level of carbon dioxide removal. Most scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century experiment an overshoot – a temporary exceedance of this level of global warming followed by a decrease in global mean temperature once global greenhouse gas emissions become net-negative in the second half of the century.

However, besides a number of well documented tipping points our understanding of the reversibility of climate impacts remains limited. It is indeed not well understood for which climate and sectoral impacts one can expect reversibility or not, and over which time scale it would occur.

Here we attempt to present an overview of changes that an overshoot would bring to the climate system. We analyze standard climate indicators as well as extreme event indicators in overshoot scenarios including the SSP119 and the SSP534 scenarios for a range of CMIP6 models. Comparing climate projections at a fixed warming level before and after global warming has peaked reveals significant differences in local climatic conditions, with precipitation pattern changes being particularly affected. This preliminary investigation will help to identify regions of interest for which the mechanisms that hinder reversibility could be analyzed in more depth in future research.

How to cite: Pfleiderer, P., Lejeune, Q., Schleussner, C.-F., and Sillmann, J.: Additional climate impacts of overshoot scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8717, 2022.

Ongoing research shows an association between volcanic eruptions, the resulting disruption of climatic and hydrological patterns, and socio-economic disturbance in ancient Egypt during the final three centuries BCE (Manning, Ludlow et al. 2017). The present paper explores how this paradigm can extend our understanding of Judaea in the 160s BCE, a decade marked by consecutive famines amid intense political and social upheaval, particularly the so-called Maccabaean Revolt against Seleucid rule. Making use of state-of-the-art ice-core evidence that identifies three substantial volcanic eruptions within that timespan, as well as modelling that sheds light on the likely climatic impacts of the eruptions, this paper puts forward explanations to supplement those based upon the ancient (literary) sources alone, suggesting that volcanic forcing was a critical factor in these significant events in Judaean history. 

            The Maccabaean rebellion and its aftereffects on Jewish identity politics in posterity cannot be overstated, yet heretofore the contribution of famine conditions (now plausibly linked to external climatic forcing) to this watershed period have hardly been taken into account. Mindful that studies claiming climatic pressures as primary catalysts of important human historical events have often proved overly simplistic, the interaction of other contemporaneous stressors is also examined. Correspondences with the Egyptian and Chinese data are observed here too, especially in relation to conditions surrounding the onset and cessation of military action, and interference in religious matters in order to control a predominantly Temple-managed resource management and taxation system.

How to cite: Medenieks, S.: The volcanic 'triple event' of the 160s BCE and the causes of famine in Judaea during the Maccabaean Revolt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10004, 2022.

The idea that warfare increases when societies are subject to stress from climate extremes is plausible and yet has not been definitively established. Were it to be so, then the possibility of outbreaks of warfare, particularly between nations capable of bringing about unprecedented levels of destruction, would be one of the greatest risks for those living in an age of extreme climate events. As a contribution to the contention that there is a connection between extreme climate events and outbreaks of warfare, this paper offers a case study of the fall of the Kingdom of Israel c. 720 BCE with the conquest of the city of Samaria by Assyria. Because of the religious significance of the event, the defeat of the ancient Kingdom of Israel has been a subject of considerable study, despite the paucity of the sources. Until now, there has been no exploration of the role of climate extremes in the events of the period, other than to reject the idea that climate had any impact on the issue, as one scholar has written: 'no specific impulses from a (sudden) change in climate would have influenced the course of events leading to the end of the kingdom.’

This paper will draw on recent ice-core data to connect the fact that there was a very significant volcanic eruption in 723 BCE with the political and military events of the years immediately following. It will argue that a severe drop in temperature had a powerful impact on societies with relatively frail resilience to such shocks and that the stress created by the volcanic climate event had a profound effect on the decision makers of the era, with disastrous consequences in the case of the Kingdom of Israel.

How to cite: Kostick, C.: A Case Study of Extreme Weather Shock and Warfare: The Fall of the Kingdom of Israel c.720 BCE, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10012, 2022.

EGU22-10169 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Understanding heat extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa: Projected changes in UNESCO Biosphere Reserves 

Amina Maroini, Alessandra Giannini, and Martha-Marie Vogel

We explore the changes in climate extremes (heat stress, temperature and precipitation) as projected by the Sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble under the ‘business as usual scenario’ (ssp585) for global warming levels from 1.0°C to 3.0°C, relative to pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa. We focus on the 86 UNESCO-designated Biosphere Reserves located in sub-Saharan Africa, a region highly vulnerable to climate change, spanning monsoon, wet, dry and Mediterranean climate regions. Projected changes of temperature indices are significant at all warming levels across the five climate classes of Sub-Saharan Africa. Notably, absolute heat extreme indices are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature in monsoon  and in dry climate regions.
We found the strongest health risk to heat stress in the two monsoon and the rainy climate regions, and the lowest in the Mediterranean climate region. High risk of heat stress emerges at a global warming of 1.5°C in the northern hemisphere (NH) monsoon region, whereas only above a global warming level of 3°C in the SH monsoon and rainy climate regions. We find that limiting global mean temperature below 2.0°C reduces by a half the exposure to high levels of heat stress in the population in and around the Biosphere Reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Finally, we investigated processes that might explain the differences in the regions. The NH monsoon class reaches high heat stress risks earlier, already at a global warming of 1.0°C, due to the compounding effects of temperature and humidity, as temperatures start from a warmer baseline and occur jointly with a significant increase in precipitation. While the rainy climate region also exceeds high risk thresholds, values of the different heat stress indices are highest overall in the SH monsoon region. Since the latter is a region projected to experience an intense drying, this suggests that the strong increase in heat extremes is caused by an amplification of land warming through land-atmosphere feedbacks.

How to cite: Maroini, A., Giannini, A., and Vogel, M.-M.: Understanding heat extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa: Projected changes in UNESCO Biosphere Reserves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10169, 2022.

EGU22-10250 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Systemic risk from the perspective of climate, environmental and disaster risk science and practice 

Jana Sillmann, Ingrid Christensen, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Jo-Ting Huang-Lachmann, Sirkku K. Juhola, Kai Kornhuber, Miguel Mahecha, Reinhard Mechler, Markus Reichstein, Alex C. Ruane, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, and Scott Williams

Understanding and managing systemic risk is more important than ever due to our immense global connectivity (e.g., between sectors, such as food-health-water-energy, countries and continents, down to individuals). Despite the fact that the notion of systemic risk is several decades old, the term is used in diverse ways across different disciplines (e.g., financial systems, medicine, earth system sciences, disaster risk research and climate science). Triggered by the repercussions of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, which are clear realization of systemic risk, the perception of systemic risk has often been focused on global and catastrophic or even existential risks.  Systemic risk, however, can be seen as a feature of systems at all possible scales (e.g., global, national, regional, local) with system boundaries varying depending on the context.

Addressing current societal challenges, such as climate change, in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Based on insights gained and knowledge collected from an expert workshop, literature review and expert elicitation, we give an integrated perspective of climate, environmental and disaster risk science and practice on systemic risk as summarized in a Briefing Note to the International Science Council. We provide an overview of concepts of systemic risk that have evolved over time and identify commonalities across terminologies and perspectives associated with systemic risk used in different contexts. Key attributes of systemic risk are outlined without prescribing a single definition, and information and data requirements are discussed that are essential for a better and more actionable understanding of the systemic nature of risk. Finally, the opportunities to connect research and policy for addressing systemic risk are highlighted.

How to cite: Sillmann, J., Christensen, I., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Huang-Lachmann, J.-T., Juhola, S. K., Kornhuber, K., Mahecha, M., Mechler, R., Reichstein, M., Ruane, A. C., Schweizer, P.-J., and Williams, S.: Systemic risk from the perspective of climate, environmental and disaster risk science and practice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10250, 2022.

EGU22-10356 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Societal responses to political and climatic changes in Babylon in the First Millennium BCE. 

Rhonda McGovern, Dr. Conor Kostick, Andrew Hill, Selga Medenieks, and Dr. Francis Ludlow

The Astronomical Diaries and Related Texts from Babylonia (Volumes I-III) provide sub-daily precisely dated meteorological observations recorded by ṭupšūtu (Akkadian for scribes) who were expert astronomers conducting a programme of observation spanning many centuries. Thanks to their use of clay as a medium, 209 (known) tablets survived, were excavated, translated and published, providing a unique window into the climate in the first millennium BCE.

A focus of the Irish Research Council-funded CLICAB Project (Climates of Conflict in Ancient Babylonia) is on deriving historic climate data from the translated tablets. Information has therefore been categorised into 50 unique keys, 24 of which refer to meteorological and related phenomena. This has facilitated the extraction of over 230,000 rows of observational data. Initial findings afford insight into the impact that ruling elites (and changes in governing regimes) had on the recording of observations, and therefore the availability of data with which to analyse past climate; but also on how mitigation strategies were implemented to improve (not always successfully) daily life.  

For the Ancient Babylonians the ruling elite (of Babylonia or neighbouring regions) could act as a key facilitator in promoting socio-economic viability in an often challenging environment through for example, the division of land for food production, as noted in the diary which remarked that fields were given “in year 32 at the command of the king for sustenance for the people of Babylon” (April 273 BCE). 

However the monarch could also act as an obstacle to societal environmental resilience. An example presented in the diaries highlights the use of water as a tool of conflict in an attempt to take over the kingdom (119 BCE). The diaries record Euphrates River level heights which may provide a longer time series than is available for the contemporary period due to ongoing and contentious hydro-politics in the region today (Travis et al., forthcoming; Kirschner & Tiroch, 2012).

There is also abundant evidence of the climatic impacts from major explosive eruptions in the diaries, the dating of which is now known thanks to recently revised ice-core chronologies (Sigl. et al., 2015), e.g. “the cold became severe” from the 8th-15th January 247 BCE. The combination of precisely dated meteorological information and river levels, alongside evidence of volcanic induced perturbations, and historical or “event” data are a distinctive characteristic of the diaries. This combination enables a deeper understanding into societies of the First Millennium BCE and their adaptive capacity when faced with changing political regimes and climates.  

How to cite: McGovern, R., Kostick, Dr. C., Hill, A., Medenieks, S., and Ludlow, Dr. F.: Societal responses to political and climatic changes in Babylon in the First Millennium BCE., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10356, 2022.

EGU22-10435 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Investigating Spatial Patterns And Characteristics Of Preconditioned Compound Flooding Over Europe 

Ashish Manoj J, Teresa Pérez Ciria, Gabriele Chiogna, Nadine Salzmann, and Ankit Agarwal

Preconditioned compound events are defined as events in which an underlying weather-driven or climate-driven precondition causes an increase in the impacts of a hazard. In state-of-the-art risk assessment studies, the dependencies and cross-correlations between multiple variables/processes are usually difficult to account for. However,  previous studies have shown that some of the most devastating extreme events in the past years occurred within a cascade of interdependent and interrelated hazards. This is particularly true in the case of initial hydrologic conditions for large scale pluvial events (Eg: European Floods – 2021). The lack of proper characterisation of the spatiotemporal patterns and impacts of antecedent soil moisture conditions on extreme precipitation events hinder our understanding of such high impact flooding events and subsequently the early warning and mitigation or reduction of severe impacts for the society. Hence with this critical research gap in mind, in the present work, we employ Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA) to identify and characterise the regions over which Precipitation extremes (P) occur over Soil Moisture extreme states (SM). Precursor coincidence rate calculates the fraction of such preconditioned SM-P events out of total P extremes. The datasets used include the E-OBS v24.0 gridded product for precipitation and GLEAM v3.5a for soil moisture modelled product. Our results indicate strong seasonal variations in such SM-P preconditioning over Europe. A significant shift in the magnitude and spatial extent of SM-P coupling is seen within the seasons for the various regions. Strong coincidence is seen for western and central Europe in winter, and the coincidence weakens in summer. For eastern Europe, stronger preconditioning is seen in the summer compared to the winter season. The observed trends over the study duration of 1980 to 2020 are in line with the historical climatological and meteorological patterns of the regions. We further made use of the timings of annual maximum discharge (Peak flood values) at a catchment scale from a European flood database to investigate how the seasonal and spatial variations in the timings of floods could be interpreted from the SM-P preconditioning perspective. Our results will aid in strengthening existing flood risk assessment initiatives while providing new avenues and implications for a better understanding and proper representation of preconditioned compound flooding events over Europe.

How to cite: Manoj J, A., Pérez Ciria, T., Chiogna, G., Salzmann, N., and Agarwal, A.: Investigating Spatial Patterns And Characteristics Of Preconditioned Compound Flooding Over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10435, 2022.

EGU22-10498 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

The societal impacts of volcanically induced climate forcing on Carthaginian (pre-Roman) northwestern Africa (396-146 BCE) 

Andrew Hill, Francis Ludlow, Rhonda McGovern, Conor Kostick, and Selga Medenieks

Before its destruction by the Roman army in 146 BCE, Carthage was one of the largest cities on earth. Established on a site some 15 km from modern day Tunis in ca. 814, the ancient town developed into the first truly urban centre of northwestern Africa; eventually housing a population of over half a million within its environs. As the hegemon of a vast territorial and maritime domain stretching by the fourth century from Morocco in the west to Libya in the east, Carthage was also the first state in the Maghreb to face the challenges incumbent in administrating provinces of such pronounced environmental diversity as their rain-fed hinterland in northern Tunisia and the arid coastal region of Tripolitania in modern Libya. Today, the majority of agriculture in Tunisia remains centred on the north of the country which benefits from the fickle graces of a Mediterranean climate, and where food production is deeply connected with the spatial distribution of winter rains critical to the farming season. Further south, and inland, drought risk increases concomitant with higher temperatures and less rainfall.

In 396, the Carthaginians faced a major rebellion of the subaltern working population of the countryside – one of a series of six rebellions recorded in classical sources for the 250 years until the fall of the city. Acknowledging the role of climate in influencing rapid social and political change in the modern region – with the outbreak of the Arab Spring occurring in the water-stressed region of Sidi Bouzid in Tunisia in 2011, for example – this paper examines whether the timing of internal war in the Carthaginian state was influenced by volcanically induced climatic perturbations via impacts on the agro-economy. Made possible by the publication of a revised chronology of explosive volcanic eruptions over the past 2,500 years (Sigl et al. (2015)), preliminary statistical testing reveals a non-random correlation with the timing of internal war. Recognising the complexity of the linkages between climate and conflict in agriculturally based economies, it can be hypothesized that the non-uniform impact of climatic shocks across geographically and demographically diverse spaces, as well as social strata within regions, was a key driver of unrest by increasing competition for land and resources between more well off resilient communities and those surviving on subsistence (Vesco et al. (2021)).

How to cite: Hill, A., Ludlow, F., McGovern, R., Kostick, C., and Medenieks, S.: The societal impacts of volcanically induced climate forcing on Carthaginian (pre-Roman) northwestern Africa (396-146 BCE), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10498, 2022.

EGU22-11089 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Quantitative analysis of systemic risk: from traditional collective risk assessment to resilience concept 

Marcello Arosio, Luigi Cesarini, and Mario Martina

We live in a complex world: today’s societies are interconnected in complex and dynamic socio-technological networks and have become more dependent on the services provided by critical facilities. In coming years, climate change is expected to exacerbate these trends. In this context, systemic risk assessment is a worldwide challenge that institutions and private individuals must face at both global and local scales. The aim of this work is to adapt the traditional risk assessment methodology to the concept of resilience in order to quantify disaster resilience of a complex system by means of the graph (i.e., the mathematical representation of the system element and connections). We showed that is necessary to adapt the traditional risk assessment to resilience concept considering that the consolidaded definition, provided by the United Nations General Assembly in 2017, includes two fundamental features of systemic risk: (1) resilience is a property of a system and not of single entities and (2) resilience is a property of the system dynamic response.

The methodology proposed represents the elements of the system and their connections (i.e., the services they exchange) with a weighted and redundant graph exposed to extreme weather events and societal systems: river and pluvial floods in urban area. The quantitative analysis of systemic risk is characterized by three activities: 1) assess the systemic properties in order to highlight the centrality of some elements; 2) show how each element can dynamically adapt to an external perturbation, taking advantage of the redundancy of the connections and the capacity of each element to supply lost services; 3) quantify the resilience as the actual reduction of the impacts of events at different return periods.

To illustrate step by step the proposed methodology and show its practical feasibility, we applied it to a pilot study: the city of Monza, a densely populated urban environment.

How to cite: Arosio, M., Cesarini, L., and Martina, M.: Quantitative analysis of systemic risk: from traditional collective risk assessment to resilience concept, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11089, 2022.

EGU22-11253 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Massive morphological changes during the 2021 summer flood in the River Meuse 

Hermjan Barneveld, Roy Frings, and Ton Hoitink

In July 2021, an exceptional flood developed in the River Meuse and its tributaries. The high rainfall intensity lasted for several days in a number of sub-catchments in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, causing devastating floods. In the River Meuse itself, the peak discharge was highest since measurements started in 1911. The flood was particularly exceptional because floods normally occur in winter. During this flood, which lasted for 5 days only, flow velocities exceeded 5 m/s and unprecedented morphological changes occurred, especially in the permanently free flowing river section, referred to as the Common Meuse. In a section of 15 km long, more than 20 deep scour holes developed in the riverbed, some exceeding depths of 15 m. Morphological changes of this intensity and magnitude during extreme events are only sparsely reported in literature.

The objective of the study is to improve understanding of the processes causing high river morphodynamics under extreme floods, by focusing on the Common Meuse. Here, the riverbed surface is composed of gravel and the bed slope is five times steeper than the downstream channelized river. Post event field data were collected revealing the morphological changes in the riverbed from multibeam measurements, and floodplains deposition patterns from field surveys. We analyzed the volumes and composition of the floodplain deposits in relation to the riverbed material and morphological changes in the main riverbed.

Our analysis shows that breaching of the thin gravel layer on the riverbed caused the massive morphological changes. Analysis of historical data suggest that the main ingredients for thinning of the gravel layer on the riverbed are gradual channel incision up to 2 cm/yr, the vertical composition of the riverbed and altered flow conditions. Previous river training works, weirs and sediment mining created a supply-limited river system and an eroding trend. In the Meuse valley, several tectonic faults are found. In uplifting areas, known as horsts, the gravel layer on the riverbed is relatively thin, as the river continuously erodes the rising riverbed. Room for the River measures carried out since the 1995 flood event lowered flood levels, but also increased flow velocities in river reaches that were not or only marginally widened. A large portion of fine sediments released from the riverbed underneath the gravel layer was deposited in comparatively wide floodplains located further downstream. The curvature of the river, height of the banks and concentrated flow directed towards the floodplains appear to determine locations of the main sand deposits. The unprecendented morphological changes may have a decisive impact on the morphological trends as well as on stability of infrastructure and flood safety. With respect to the latter, the impact of the scour holes on the overall hydraulic resistance and thus peak water levels will be assessed. These morphological processes may occur more frequently in future, also in other river sections, requiring new river management strategies to avoid a catastrophe.

How to cite: Barneveld, H., Frings, R., and Hoitink, T.: Massive morphological changes during the 2021 summer flood in the River Meuse, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11253, 2022.

EGU22-11369 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Modelling of Compound Drought-Temperature Extreme Event Framework: A Multi-Decadal Perspective 

Sushree Swagatika Swain, Ashok Mishra, and Chandranath Chatterjee

Compound events are the extreme weather and climate events that result from a combination of physical processes (climatic drivers and extreme events) occurring across different temporal (successive) and spatial (simultaneous) scales. Further, multiple drivers with a complex chain of processes, conditional dependencies and extreme return periods of such events lead to severe socio-economic and environmental impacts. The quantification and predictions of such extreme events still need to be advanced with changing climate and global warming. In previous literature, it is documented that precipitation and temperature are the fundamental drivers of different climatic variations resulting in compound extreme events. In light of these perspectives, a Standardized Compound Extreme Event Index (SCEEI) is modelled in this study integrating the joint properties of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI) that are derived from precipitation and temperature; respectively employing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) data series. The Gaussian model-based multivariate technique is applied to derive SCEEI. The severity of drought and extreme temperature at an annual scale is analysed using SCEEI for two neighbouring river basins of Eastern India, i.e. Brahmani and Baitarani river basins for the study period of 1979-2018. The variations of the extreme events and their severity are further assessed at a multi-decadal scale. The trends of these compound events for different time scales are checked by the Mann-Kendall test followed by Sen’s slope estimator. The multi-decadal time scale is divided as D1 (1979-1988), D2 (1989-1998), D3 (1999-2008), and D4 (2009-2018). It is observed that SCEEI captures drought events along with extreme temperatures reasonably well than the individual index (SPI and STI). The outcomes of this study conclude that the multivariate approach is a reliable perspective to assess the severity of compound extreme events. The developed approach in this study is novel for monitoring the compound extreme event severity under the non-availability basin-scale hydrological data that is advantageous for several worldwide data scare river basins to purpose an adaptation strategy and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Keywords: Compound events; SCEEI; IMD; multi-decadal; Brahmani; Baitarani; SDGs

How to cite: Swain, S. S., Mishra, A., and Chatterjee, C.: Modelling of Compound Drought-Temperature Extreme Event Framework: A Multi-Decadal Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11369, 2022.

In climate change, migration from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) would affect socio-economic development in SSA and Europe. However, empirical evidence is unclear about the role of international migration in achieving sustainable development. This article first attempted to study the migration patterns and determinants between 1995 and 2020. Sustainability index and regression models were built to estimate the cascading effects of international migration on expatriates and asylum seekers in SSA or Europe and the feedback effects on SSA’s sustainable development. In particular, SSA asylum seekers into 14 European countries (EURO-14) were investigated for their push-pull factors and impacts on the socio-economic development of EURO-14. Results show that the international migration was primarily intra-SSA to low-income but high-population-density countries. Along with increased sustainability scores, international migration declined, but emigration rose. Climate extremes tend to affect migration and emigration but not universally. Dry extremes propelled migration, whereas wet extremes had an adverse effect. Hot extremes had an increasing but insignificant effect. SSA's international migration was driven by food insecurity, low life expectancy, political instability and violence, and high economic growth, unemployment and urbanization rates. The probability of emigration was mainly driven by high fertility. SSA's international migration promoted asylum seeking to Europe, with the diversification of origin countries and a motive for economic wellbeing. 1% more migration flow or 1% higher probability of emigration led to a 0.2% increase in asylum seekers from SSA to Europe. Large-scale international migration and recurrent emigration constrained SSA's sustainable development in terms of political stability, food security and health. Regarding the asylum seekers to Europe, political instability and violence of SSA were major pushing factors while high GDP per capita, low unemployment, and ageing populations of EURO-14 were major pulling factors. Development aid reduced the outflow from SSA, whereas common colonial language and migrant networks facilitated the immigration to the EURO-14. The immigration from SSA did not affect the political stability of EURO-14. In contrast, economic development was promoted by settled migrants but hampered by asylum seekers. Overall, climate change is one factor of many but not the dominant. It might gain more weight if climate change accelerates. These findings can inform policymakers of countries that continue to improve development aids, food security and political stability in SSA while promoting the integration and inclusion of immigrants in Europe for better migration management and planning towards sustainable development, besides mitigating climate change. 

How to cite: Li, Q. and Samimi, C.: Sub-Saharan Africa's international migration and sustainable development under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11529, 2022.

EGU22-11580 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Impacts of climate change on human security in Bangladesh: a systematic map 

Ferdous Sultana, Jan Petzold, and Jürgen Scheffran

Bangladesh is considered a climate hot spot for its unique geography, high population, poor infrastructure, high inequality, corrupt governance system and heavily agriculture-reliant economy. Due to its physical location compounding extreme weather events like cyclones, floods, heat waves, extreme rainfall etc. are a yearly phenomenon and climate change is contributing to their increasing frequency and intensifying severity. The impacts of such natural hazards then start a cascading process within the interconnected sectors of the society and affect different dimensions of human security, leading to multiple system failures, where the poor are hit disproportionately. Plenty of research is done on climate change impacts in Bangladesh, but there is lack of aggregated research that combines this evidence and provides a comprehensive overview of the systemic risk. The objective of this study is to investigate the existing literature on how climate change along with interdependent dimensions of the societal system pose threat to different components of human security. The concept of human security used here is based on three pillars: freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity. A systematic map approach is adopted to ensure minimal human and publication bias as opposed to a traditional review process. Standardized key terms were used to search literature in Web of Science and broad inclusion criteria were applied for screening relevant papers. Selected papers will go through a robust coding process to create an exhaustive database and yield the complex pathways of interaction between climate-related extreme weather events and human security in Bangladesh.

How to cite: Sultana, F., Petzold, J., and Scheffran, J.: Impacts of climate change on human security in Bangladesh: a systematic map, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11580, 2022.

EGU22-11891 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

An insight to heatwave hazard mapping over the Indian subcontinent 

Anokha Shilin, Naveen Sudharsan, Arpita Mondal, Pradip Kalbar, and Subhankar Karmakar

Temperature extremes and heat stress are some of the major impacts of changing climate, with adverse effects on human life and property. Literatures shows that the frequency and intensity of heatwave related hazards are increasing over the last few decades. In global scenario, heatwaves are arguably more hazardous to human lives compared to any other natural disasters. However, heatwave hazard mapping studies are not so profuse over the Indian region. Many regions of the Indian subcontinent have become highly sensitive to heatwaves as a result of the recent rise in temperature extremes. As the heatwave has an impact over an extended spatial region, efficient response and mitigation plan is not possible compared with other natural disasters. India, being the second largest in human population; leading to urbanization, growing intensity of vulnerable community and the anthropogenic influences indicates an urgent need for a well-developed heatwave hazard map to aid the mitigation and response measures. Anthropogenic factors influencing the climate change are one among the main causative parameter for heatwave hazards. The repercussion of these factors will be evidently reflected in the atmospheric patterns and hence the involvement of atmospheric parameters is considered. In this study, we develop a novel index-based heatwave hazard map for India. Along with the conventional method of using temperature, the atmospheric influencing factors is also considered to quantify the changes in heatwave hazard for the historical period and the near future heatwave conditions. The vulnerable community including the farmers, who are attempting to combat with the extreme temperature issues will be benefited with the developed heatwave hazard map.  

Keywords: Heatwave hazard map, Climate change, Frequency and intensity, India

How to cite: Shilin, A., Sudharsan, N., Mondal, A., Kalbar, P., and Karmakar, S.: An insight to heatwave hazard mapping over the Indian subcontinent, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11891, 2022.

EGU22-11966 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Climate, vegetation, and society impacts in Scandinavia following the 536/540 CE volcanic double event 

Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger

The mid-6th century is an outstanding period in climate history featuring one of the coldest decades in the past 2000 years. It was triggered by the 536/540 CE volcanic double event, creating the strongest decadal volcanic forcing in the last two millennia. The centuries of the first millennium are characterized by great societal changes, including the ending of antiquity and the beginning of early medieval state formations, a process believed to have been reinforced by the LALIA and the Justinian Plague. However, less is known about causal relationships between global cooling, regional climate, and local societal changes in Scandinavia after this volcanic double event. Here we aim to improve this understanding by combining global climate and local growing-degree-day (GDD) modeling for southern Norway.

We use the PMIP4 past2k and the 6th-7th century (520-680 CE) MPI-ESM ensemble simulations, to analyze the atmospheric circulation and surface climate changes as a response to the 536/540 CE volcanic double event, focusing on Scandinavia. The ensemble mean reveals significant surface cooling up to 2K, accompanied by reduced precipitation up to 25% over Scandinavia during the growing season. However, single MPI-ESM model realizations show slight warming and increased precipitation reflecting different atmospheric circulation patterns over the years following the eruptions. Three sites are selected for the GDD model as a case study, representing different weather regimes in Southern Norway, which are then driven with the MPI-ESM ensemble data as input. The high-resolution data are compared to archaeological- and high-resolution pollen records, to shed more light on the climate, vegetation, and society impacts for southern Norway. We discuss the likely volcanic climate response over Scandinavia based on the model spread, atmospheric circulation change patterns, and the local archaeological and pollen records.

How to cite: van Dijk, E., Mørkestøl Gundersen, I., de Bode, A., Høeg, H., Loftsgarden, K., Iversen, F., Timmreck, C., Jungclaus, J., and Krüger, K.: Climate, vegetation, and society impacts in Scandinavia following the 536/540 CE volcanic double event, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11966, 2022.

The time taken by human societies to recover after extreme events is of widespread interest to archaeologists and anthropologists. To date, there has been no consistent, comparative study across prehistoric cultures to determine rates of recovery, their spatiotemporal variability, and the factors that affect outcomes. This talk will present a meta-analysis of palaeodemographic records that use archaeological radiocarbon dates as a proxy for prehistoric population history. It will initially draw on well-known case studies, with a view towards quantifying the geographical/biotic/cultural influences on societal recovery in the face of extreme events, as well as how different types of events may shape adaptive responses. In summary, the paper aims to advocate for rigorous and robust approaches towards past patterns of resilience, ideally ones that 1) focus on measurable, comparable properties of cultural dynamics, and 2) are linked more closely with interdisciplinary definitions of resilience, in order to enable large-scale syntheses of archaeological and anthropological data to inform future action.

How to cite: Riris, P.: Recovery & resilience of prehistoric societies after extreme events as viewed through palaeodemography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13145, 2022.

EGU22-13553 | Presentations | CL3.2.6

Economic costs of climate extremes 

Leonie Wenz

Climate extremes have been shown to have adverse effects on various productive elements of the
economy
such as labour productivity or agricultural yields, measurable at the macro-level as changes
in Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). Estimates of these macroeconomic costs of climate change play an
important role in climate policy debates and decisions. However, current estimates differ vastly –
partly because it is unclear how resilient affected regions, sectors and communities are and how
persistently climate extremes can hence affect them.
In this talk, I will give an overview of recent
findings in this research area.
Specifically, I will present insights gained from a novel data set
comprising
subnational GDP data from the past 40 years and more than 1500 regions worldwide.
Based on these granular data,
we have empirically estimated historic temperature and precipitation
impacts at different time scales, from daily fluctuations
and extremes to changes in the long-term
mean.
In total, we have identified five separate impact channels – most of them have been
unaccounted for in previous assessments.
Our findings show that economic output is strongly affected
by rainfall and temperature changes but that these effects display large spatial heterogeneity .
Whereas
low-income, low-latitude regions are most vulner able to rising and erratic temperatures,
increases in the number of rainy days and extreme rainfall events are most harmful in wealth y,
industrialized countries.
I will conclude by discussing implications for assessments of the costs of
climate change
.

How to cite: Wenz, L.: Economic costs of climate extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13553, 2022.

EGU22-504 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

Analogues of a historical extreme-impact event and their implication for climate change risk assessment 

Henrique Moreno Dumont Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk

Meteorological conditions can affect crop development and yield in multiple and non-linear ways. Many studies have investigated the influence of climate change on crops by simulating crop responses to the most likely mean climatic projections in the future. However, this approach can potentially overlook changes in extreme-impact events, highly relevant for society, due to their low probability of occurrence and to potential different behaviour with respect to the mean conditions. One way of focusing on extreme-impact events is through the use of physical climate storylines. Storylines enable the construction of self-sustained and physically-plausible chain of events that recreate historical events from source to impact. In addition, storylines allow the exploration of future analogues of the historical events under different circumstances to account for externalities, such as climate change. In this experiment, we use physical climate storylines to reconstruct a historical extreme-impact event and to explore potential analogues of the same event under climate change influence. We develop two types of analogues, event-analogues and impact-analogues, and compare how the future manifestation of the historical event depends on the analogue definition. We use soybean production in the US as an example, with the year of 2012 being the historical extreme event. Based on a random forest model, we link the historical event to meteorological variables to identify the conditions associated with the failure event. To quantify the frequency of occurrence of the different analogues under climate change, we apply the trained random forest model to large ensembles of climate projections from the EC-Earth global climate model. We find that the 2012 failure event is linked to low precipitation levels, and high temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) levels during July and August. The analogues of the historical event greatly diverge: while event-analogues of the 2012 season are rare and not expected to increase, impact-analogues show a significant increase in occurrence frequency under global warming, but for different combinations of the meteorological drivers than experienced in 2012. The results highlight the importance of considering the impact perspective when investigating future extreme crop yields.

How to cite: Moreno Dumont Goulart, H., van der Wiel, K., Folberth, C., Balkovic, J., and van den Hurk, B.: Analogues of a historical extreme-impact event and their implication for climate change risk assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-504, 2022.

EGU22-704 | Presentations | CL3.2.8 | Highlight

Current and future risks of unprecedented UK droughts 

Wilson Chan, Theodore Shepherd, Katie Facer-Childs, Geoff Darch, Nigel Arnell, and Karin van der Wiel

The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past and their frequency and severity are predicted to increase with climate change. However, quantifying the risks of extreme droughts is challenging given the short observational record, the multivariate nature of droughts and large internal variability of the climate system. We use EC-Earth time-slice large ensembles, which consist of 2000 years of data each for present day, 2°C and 3°C conditions, to drive the GR6J hydrological model at UK river catchments to obtain a large set of plausible droughts. Applying the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulation of Extreme Events using ENsembles) approach show an increasing chance of unprecedented dry summers with future warming and highlight the chance of an unprecedented drought with characteristics exceeding that of past severe droughts.

This study also aims to bridge the probabilistic UNSEEN approach with “bottom-up” storyline approaches. Physical climate storylines of preconditioned compound drought events are created by searching within the large ensemble for events resembling specific conditions that have led to past severe droughts and are relevant for water resources planning. This includes conditions such as 1) dry autumns followed by dry winters, 2) consecutive dry winters (both of which are relevant for slow-responding catchments), and 3) dry springs followed by dry summers (relevant for fast-responding catchments). The storylines can be used to understand the conditions leading to unprecedented droughts and the impacts of future droughts triggered by the same conditions. Unprecedented drought sequences and synthetic experiments conditioned on these storylines can be used to stress-test hydrological systems and inform decision-making.

How to cite: Chan, W., Shepherd, T., Facer-Childs, K., Darch, G., Arnell, N., and van der Wiel, K.: Current and future risks of unprecedented UK droughts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-704, 2022.

EGU22-796 | Presentations | CL3.2.8 | Highlight

Have there been previous heat extremes greater than the June 2021 western North America event? 

Vikki Thompson, Alan Kennedy-Asser, Eunice Lo, Emily Vosper, Dann Mitchell, and Oliver Andrews

In June 2021 western North America experienced a record-breaking heatwave, outside the distribution of previously observed temperatures. Our research asks whether other regions across the world have experienced so far outside their natural variability - and have there been greater heat extremes.  

In our novel assessment of heat extremes we characterise the relative intensity of an event as the number of standard deviations from the mean, finding the western North America heatwave is remarkable, outside four single deviations. Throughout the globe, where we have reliable data, only 5 other heatwaves were found to be more extreme since 1960. We can also identify regions which, by chance, have not had a recent extreme heatwave, and may be less prepared for future events. 

Using extreme value analysis the western North America heat extreme has been shown to be outside the previous distribution of extremes for the region. We can test if this is unique, or if previous events show similar. 

By assessing the numbers of regions globally exceeding various thresholds, in terms of standard deviation from the mean, we can show that extremes appear to increase in line with changes to the mean-state of the distribution of the climate, and projected increase in extremes aligns with projected warming.   

How to cite: Thompson, V., Kennedy-Asser, A., Lo, E., Vosper, E., Mitchell, D., and Andrews, O.: Have there been previous heat extremes greater than the June 2021 western North America event?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-796, 2022.

EGU22-1676 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

xWEI – A novel cross-scale index for extreme precipitation events 

Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann

How can the extremity of an rainfall event be quantified? Extreme rainfall events are rarely homogeneous regarding rainfall intensities and the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall can cause flooding on different scales. While small, mountainous catchments can react to short but high-intensity precipitation with flash floods, the same event can also trigger pluvial or fluvial floods on a spatially bigger scale with lower intensity precipitation, leading to compound flood events. Consequently, these cross-scale characteristics of extreme rainfall events are an important factor that should be considered regarding hydrological response or disaster management.

To quantify the extremity of rainfall events while considering the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, we introduce a new index, xWEI, based on the Weather Extremity Index (WEI). By using precipitation radar data with a high spatial and temporal resolution, we analyzed and evaluated extreme rainfall events in Germany and were able to show essential differences in the performance of the classical approach (WEI) and xWEI. 

This novel cross-scale index, in combination with modern high-resolution precipitation radar data, enables a better identification of extreme events and their characteristics and helps to link them to their impacts.

How to cite: Voit, P. and Heistermann, M.: xWEI – A novel cross-scale index for extreme precipitation events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1676, 2022.

EGU22-2172 | Presentations | CL3.2.8 | Highlight

Flood responses to increases in rainfall extremes vary depending on event severity 

Manuela Irene Brunner, Daniel Swain, Raul Wood, Florian Willkofer, James Done, Eric Gilleland, and Ralf Ludwig

There is clear evidence that precipitation extremes will increase in a warming climate. However, the hydrologic response to this increase in heavy precipitation is more uncertain - and there is little historical evidence for systematic increases in flood magnitude despite observed increases in precipitation extremes. These dual realities yield a paradox with considerable practical relevance: will the divergence between extreme precipitation increases and flood severity persist, or are land-surface processes at work?  Here, we investigate how flood magnitudes in hydrological Bavaria change in response to warming using a single model initial condition large climate ensemble coupled to a hydrological model (hydro-SMILE). We find that there exists a severity threshold above which precipitation increases clearly yield increased flood magnitudes, and below which flood magnitude is modulated by land surface processes. Our findings highlight the importance of large ensembles and help reconcile climatological and hydrological perspectives on changing flood risk in a warming climate.

How to cite: Brunner, M. I., Swain, D., Wood, R., Willkofer, F., Done, J., Gilleland, E., and Ludwig, R.: Flood responses to increases in rainfall extremes vary depending on event severity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2172, 2022.

EGU22-2228 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

Developing low-likelihood climate storylines for extreme precipitation using ensemble boosting 

Claudia Gessner, Erich M. Fischer, Urs Beyerle, and Reto Knutti

Heavy precipitation events as the one in western Germany and the Benelux countries in July 2021 destroy the local infrastructure and numerous fatalities. Due to the lack of long homogenous climate data and methodological framework, it is uncertain how intense precipitation extremes could get. We address these questions by developing storylines of the rarest precipitation events. We here generate large samples of reinitialized heavy rainfall events starting from the most extreme events in an initial condition large ensemble for the near future, carried out with CESM2. In an approach referred to as ensemble boosting, we first reinitialize the most extreme 3-day precipitation events to estimate how anomalous they could get. We find that the most extreme precipitation events can be substantially exceeded in the boosted ensembles for different regions across the world. Second, we evaluate whether the model can reproduce analogues of the precipitation event in July 2021 and re-initialize these events to analyze how this event type could have evolved and whether it could have become even more intense. In doing so, the ensemble boosting method provides storylines of heavy rainfall development beyond the observational record, which can be used to generate worst-case scenarios and stress test the socioeconomic system.

How to cite: Gessner, C., Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U., and Knutti, R.: Developing low-likelihood climate storylines for extreme precipitation using ensemble boosting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2228, 2022.

EGU22-5606 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

Ruffling feathers: An appraisal of tail flood losses using grey swan scenarios in London, UK 

Antonia MacDonald and Philip Oldham

There are several tools for assessing potential future insurance flood losses in the UK, including catastrophe models which seek to generate an annualised view of flood risk losses. These catastrophe models include plausible high impact and low frequency flood events in their stochastic event sets. The addition of events which are generally considered implausible, or grey swan scenarios, is useful to increase understanding of how re/insurers will perform should our understanding of what is plausible be incorrect.

The Thames Barrier has high levels of redundancy by design and it is generally considered implausible that the barrier would completely fail to operate. We propose three increasingly extreme scenarios for flooding in London as a consequence of the Thames Barrier and other defences across London failing. In all scenarios we assume a 1 in 250-year water level from coastal flooding, well within the standard of protection offered by defences through the city.

The following defence failure scenarios are then modelled using a coupled 1D-2D model: 1) the Thames Barrier is open but the river defences remain intact with only overtopping occurring; 2) the Thames Barrier is open and defences are breached upstream of the barrier; and 3) a worst case scenario composite of several flood event scenarios, where for upstream reaches of the barrier, breach and overtopping occur with the barrier open and for downstream reaches, breach and overtopping occur with the barrier closed.

JBA’s catastrophe model for the UK probabilistically models loss from river, surface water and coastal flooding. The model comprises 2D hydraulic modelled hazard maps at 5 metre resolution, a stochastic event set of 106,424 events generated from extreme value statistical analysis, and detailed vulnerability data derived from the Multi-Coloured Manual. The catastrophe model includes an occurrence exceedance probability curve for insurable residential properties, providing the wider context for estimating the loss return period of the scenario events. We present the modelled losses and the estimated loss return periods for the grey swan scenarios and make available the model for re/insurers for stress testing. The loss return periods for the three scenarios are: 1/50, 1/358, and 1/8813.

How to cite: MacDonald, A. and Oldham, P.: Ruffling feathers: An appraisal of tail flood losses using grey swan scenarios in London, UK, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5606, 2022.

EGU22-5900 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

Understanding extreme events with multi-thousand member high-resolution global atmospheric simulations 

Peter Watson, Sarah Sparrow, William Ingram, Simon Wilson, Giuseppe Zappa, Emanuele Bevacqua, Nicholas Leach, David Sexton, Richard Jones, Marie Drouard, Daniel Mitchell, David Wallom, Tim Woollings, and Myles Allen

Multi-thousand member climate model simulations are highly valuable for showing characteristics of extreme weather events in historical and future climates. However, until now, studies using such a physically-based approach have been limited to using models with a resolution much coarser than the most modern systems. We have developed a global atmospheric model with ~60km resolution that can be run in the climateprediction.net distributed computing system to produce such large datasets. This resolution is finer than that of many current global climate models and sufficient for good simulation of extratropical synoptic features such as storms. It also allows many extratropical extreme weather events to be simulated without requiring regional downscaling. We will show that this model's simulation of extratropical winter weather is competitive with that in other state-of-the-art models. We will also present the first results generated by this system. One application has been the production of ~2000 member simulations based on sea surface temperatures in severe future winters produced in the UK Climate Projections 2018 dataset, generating large numbers of examples of plausible extreme wet and warm UK seasons. Another is showing the increasing spatial extent of precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. 

How to cite: Watson, P., Sparrow, S., Ingram, W., Wilson, S., Zappa, G., Bevacqua, E., Leach, N., Sexton, D., Jones, R., Drouard, M., Mitchell, D., Wallom, D., Woollings, T., and Allen, M.: Understanding extreme events with multi-thousand member high-resolution global atmospheric simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5900, 2022.

EGU22-5949 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

Towards forecast-based attribution of isolated extreme events: perturbed initial condition simulations of the Pacific Northwest heatwave 

Nicholas J. Leach, Chris Roberts, Tim Palmer, Myles R. Allen, and Antje Weisheimer

Here we explore the use of “counterfactual” weather forecasts, using perturbed initial condition runs of a state-of-the-art high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice ensemble NWP system, for the attribution of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change. We use the “record-shattering” heatwave experienced by Western North America during summer 2021 as a case study - though our forecast-based approach is applicable to other events.

Since we cannot make direct observations of a world without human influence on climate, all approaches to extreme event attribution involve some kind of modelling, either statistical or numerical. Both approaches struggle with the most extreme weather events, which are poorly represented in both observational records and the climate models normally used for attribution studies. Recognising the compromises involved, researchers have traditionally relied on comparing results from several different approaches to assess the robustness of conclusions. We argue that a better approach would be to use initialised numerical models that have demonstrated their ability to simulate the event in question through a successful forecast.

This work represents a continuation of a previous EGU talk and published study (https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU21-5731.html & https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2112087118), in which we used demonstrably successful weather forecasts to estimate the direct impact of increased CO2 concentrations (one component, but not the entirety, of human influence) on the 2019 European winter heatwave. 

In the previous and current work we use the operational ECMWF ensemble prediction system. This state-of-the-art weather forecast system is run at a much higher resolution (Tco639 / 18km) than most climate model simulations - important as even small reductions in resolution often change the representation of extreme events in numerical models. Using a reliable forecast ensemble allows us to quantify the associated uncertainties in our attribution analyses.

We have built on this work with the aim of providing a more complete estimate of the human influence on an isolated extreme event. In addition to the reduction of CO2 concentrations back to pre-industrial levels, we now also remove an estimate of the human influence on 3D ocean temperatures since the pre-industrial period from the initial state of the forecast model. These changes allow the model to provide a “counterfactual” picture of what an extreme event might have looked like if it had occurred before human influence on the climate.

Using this perturbed initial condition approach, we produce counterfactual forecasts of the Pacific Northwest heatwave at the end of June 2021. This event broke records throughout Western North America, including a new Canadian high temperature record of 49.6°C, shattering the previous record by almost 5°C. The heatwave was driven by a combination of meteorological factors, including an omega block and water vapour transport at the synoptic scale, and high solar irradiation and subsidence at the meso-scale (research into the drivers is ongoing). Crucially, the event was well-predicted by weather forecast models over a week in advance.

We estimate the human contribution to this exceptional heatwave by comparing our counterfactual forecasts to the operational forecasts that successfully predicted the event.

How to cite: Leach, N. J., Roberts, C., Palmer, T., Allen, M. R., and Weisheimer, A.: Towards forecast-based attribution of isolated extreme events: perturbed initial condition simulations of the Pacific Northwest heatwave, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5949, 2022.

EGU22-9259 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

The challenges of assessing low-likelihood temperature extremes with empirical data of past events 

Joel Zeder, Sebastian Sippel, and Erich Fischer

Primer: The recent Pacific Northwest heatwave in June 2021 is widely considered a prime example of a record shattering low-likelihood extreme event, exceeding previous annual temperature maxima by large margins. The event intensity was generally perceived to be far beyond what was to be expected from historical data. It has been argued that the event would have been deemed essentially impossible, i.e. having an infinite return period, if estimated based on the historical record, even when taking the warming trend into account. This raises the question whether the non-stationary extreme value modelling approach, a widely used probabilistic framework applied to assess the likelihood of such extremes, yields systematically biased estimates determining the tail characteristics of the distribution.

Research objective: We here aim at understanding why the intensity of the event exceeds the upper bound of the estimated distribution when only using data up to the year before the event. We quantify the contribution of a multitude of factors for a generalized extreme value distribution GEV with a non-stationary parametrization to be too conservative in the characterisation of tail events, especially in the context of heatwaves. We analyse how physical properties of heat extremes materialise in statistical effects contributing to potential biases in the GEV parameter estimation, as well as some inherent deficiencies of the GEV in its application to heat extremes with limited sample size due to asymptotic properties.

Data & Methods: In order to test the respective hypotheses, we analyse climate model output of single model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs), primarily an ensemble of 84 transient historical and RCP8.5 simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.2. The results are further verified using additional CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis.

Preliminary results and outlook: We find that non-stationary return period estimates tend to be systematically biased high when estimated on the historical records up to a year before a record-shattering event, which is a standard practice in applications of this framework. We here disentangle the reason responsible for potential biases in the estiamtes. We find that even in case of stationary extremes, the asymptotic nature of the GEV distribution applied to finite data favours an underestimation of the shape parameter, which has substantial effects on the characterisation of the tail, inducing biases in estimates of widely used tail measures (exceedance probabilities, return periods), and derivatives thereof (risk ratios, fraction of attributable risk). The conditional effects of non-stationary components like global warming on heatwave intensity are potentially further underestimated due to internal variability and noise in the covariates. In the light of these shortcomings, we provide evidence for an improvement of the GEV framework by learning from climate model output about the effect of further process variables (high pressure patterns and soil moisture deficiencies).

How to cite: Zeder, J., Sippel, S., and Fischer, E.: The challenges of assessing low-likelihood temperature extremes with empirical data of past events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9259, 2022.

EGU22-10405 | Presentations | CL3.2.8 | Highlight

2021 North American Heat Wave Fueled by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions 

Samuel Bartusek, Kai Kornhuber, and Mingfang Ting

Extreme heat conditions in the Pacific Northwest US and Southwestern Canada in summer 2021 were of unprecedented severity. Constituting a 5-sigma anomaly, the heatwave affected millions, likely led to thousands of excess deaths, and promoted wildfires that decreased air quality throughout the continent. Even as global warming causes an increase in the severity and frequency of heatwaves both locally and globally, this event’s magnitude went beyond what many would have considered plausible under current climate conditions. It is thus important to attribute such an exceptional event to specific physical drivers and assess its relation to climate change, to improve projection and prediction of future extreme heat events. A particularly pressing question is whether any changing variability of atmospheric dynamics or land-atmosphere interaction is implicated in amplifying current and future heat extremes. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we find that slow- and fast-moving components of the atmospheric circulation interacted to trigger extreme geopotential height anomalies during this event. We additionally identify anomalously low soil moisture levels as a critical event driver: we find that land-atmosphere feedbacks drove nonlinear amplification of its temperature anomaly by 40% (contributing 3K of the 10K peak regional-mean anomaly), catalyzed by multidecadal temperature and soil moisture trends. This is supported by a model experiment demonstrating that soil moisture interaction may increase the likelihood of the observed monthly-scale regional temperature anomaly by O(10)x. We estimate that over the four recent decades of gradual warming, the event’s temperature anomaly has become 10–100 times more likely, transforming from a ~10,000-year to a 100–1,000-year occurrence. Its likelihood continues to increase, roughly exponentially, and it is projected to recur ~20-yearly by 2060 based on continued warming at a constant rate. Our results therefore suggest an important role of atmospheric dynamics and nonlinear land-atmosphere interactions in driving this exceptional heat extreme, promoted by a long-term warming trend due to anthropogenic climate change that will continue to increase the likelihood of such extremes under continued emissions.

How to cite: Bartusek, S., Kornhuber, K., and Ting, M.: 2021 North American Heat Wave Fueled by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10405, 2022.

EGU22-11726 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

Towards a more comprehensive assessment of the intensity of European Heat Waves 1979-2019 

Florian N. Becker, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Bissolli, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Heat waves are among the most dangerous natural hazards worldwide. Central Europe has been affected by record-breaking heat waves in recent decades, especially in 2003, 2018 and 2019. Four frequently used indices are chosen in this study to diagnose heat waves in Europe based on both station data and ERA5 reanalysis: the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). To improve the quantification of the events and comparability of the four indices, a normalisation is applied and the three metrics intensity, duration, spatial extent were combined by a cumulative intensity measure. The large-scale characteristics of the 1979 to 2019 European heat waves are analysed from a Lagrangian perspective, by daily tracking of contiguous heat wave areas. The events were ranked and visualized with bubble plots. The role of different meteorological input parameters like temperature, radiation, humidity and wind speed is explored to understand their contribution to the extremeness of heat waves and the variance in time series of the heat wave indices.

As expected, temperature explains the largest variance in all indices, but humidity is nearly as important in WBGT and wind speed plays a substantial role in UTCI. While the 2010 Russian heat wave is by far the most extreme event in duration and intensity in all indices, the 2018 heat wave was comparable in size for EHF, WBGT and UTCI. Interestingly, the well-known 2003 central European heat wave was only the fifth and tenth strongest in cumulative intensity in WBGT and UTCI, respectively. The June and July 2019 heat waves were very intense, but short-lived, thus not belonging to the top heat waves in Europe when duration and areal extent are taken into account. Overall, the proposed normalised indices and the multi-metric assessment of large-scale heat waves allow for a more robust description of their extremeness and will be helpful to assess heat waves worldwide and in CMIP6 climate projections.

Applying the normalization to the four indices and deriving the large-scale metrics of intensity, spatial extent and duration, as proposed in the present study, will facilitate trend studies using different sources of observations and models. As the combination of duration and intensity over large areas are responsible for the most severe health and economic impacts, interdisciplinary research (e.g. links to health effects) is recommended starting to better quantify the impacts of heat waves in a warming climate.

How to cite: Becker, F. N., Fink, A. H., Bissolli, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Towards a more comprehensive assessment of the intensity of European Heat Waves 1979-2019, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11726, 2022.

EGU22-12579 | Presentations | CL3.2.8

Heatwaves under different future climate scenarios and impacts on children 

James Mollard, Sian F. Henley, and Massimo Bollasina

Periods of prolonged extreme warm temperatures, or heatwaves, have been shown to have significant impacts on human health, in particular affecting the young and old disproportionately. Observations over the past century show that the severity, frequency and duration of these heatwaves are increasing as global temperatures rise, and model simulations suggest there will be further increases in these characteristics in the future. 

We use a range of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP future simulations to show how heatwave characteristics change both globally and regionally. We show how these changes differ depending on the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) taken, highlighting the sensitivity of heatwaves to both global and regional warming in each scenario. The work also explores the non-linear trend between warming and heatwave characteristics, and how they vary in different future scenarios. The results suggest that the pathway followed has significant influence on heatwave attributes, and that attempting to limit changes by a set measure cannot be done by simply restricting the level of future warming to an agreed, designated temperature, such as the “1.5C above pre-industrial” figure often used in policy.  

Finally, we present how this work is been utilised in the production of the Children’s Climate Risk Index (CCRI), which provides the first comprehensive view of children’s exposure and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. We also aim to highlight how indices like this are being used to help prepare resources for future issues related to climate events.  

How to cite: Mollard, J., Henley, S. F., and Bollasina, M.: Heatwaves under different future climate scenarios and impacts on children, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12579, 2022.

EGU22-107 | Presentations | ERE1.4

Climate change: a threat to underwater cultural heritage 

Elena Pérez Álvaro

Predictions forecast changes in climate that may affect cultural heritage in the future. Not only the underwater cultural heritage will become exposed, but also our land tangible cultural heritage will be submerged: entire nations and their cultural heritage may disappear, losing their identity as nations, countries, and communities. In fact, climate change has the potential to increase the sea level enough by 2100 to inundate 136 sites considered by UNESCO as cultural and historical treasures.

This presentation will examine the specific climate changes that oceans will most likely suffer and how they will probably affect tangible underwater cultural heritage, analysing how the changes will affect every possible material that can be found in a submerged archaeological site. It will also explore cases of heritage that are already suffering the consequences examining two future scenarios: how climate change may disturb underwater cultural heritage, and how land cultural heritage may change its label and subsequently become underwater cultural heritage. Lastly, the presentation will propose a new partnership natural/cultural resources and the qualification of cultural heritage as a natural resource for its preservation, establishing the same common measures for both heritage against climate change.

How to cite: Pérez Álvaro, E.: Climate change: a threat to underwater cultural heritage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-107, 2022.

EGU22-1776 | Presentations | ERE1.4

Climate change impact on vernacular and archaeological cultural heritage building materials in Europe and Latin America 

Oscar Julián Esteban Cantillo, Beatriz Menendez, and Benjamin Quesada

The analysis and interpretation of past climate data and simulations of climate models for future periods will allow us to know future climate conditions and their differences with past ones. One of the many applications of these analyzes is the study of the impacts of climate change on two types of cultural heritage that differ due to their geographical location and therefore their climatic conditions, as are vernacular cultural heritage in Europe and archaeological sites in Latin America, but they share a fundamental similarity in terms of the use of materials and construction techniques.

The first objective of our study is to review and quantify the impacts of combined climate (mean and extreme) and pollution on building materials of cultural heritage under future IPCC socioeconomic scenarios with high and low mitigation measures at years 2030, 2050 and 2070, using peer-reviewed dose-response equations.

We also focus on the degradation effects due to compound extreme events (heatwave, dry spells and extreme rainfall/flood) of each of the selected regions of our case study (European project SCORE: Sustainable COnservation and REstoration of built cultural heritage 2021-2024), in order to determine how future climatic conditions may affect the cultural heritage of some sites in Europe and Latin America. The foregoing by applying these climatic conditions in different models, based on scientific literature, that allow determining the consequences of these conditions on the materials in which these structures were built.

Finally, based on the literature review, we deliver preliminary results on a “cocktail of extreme events” experiment in laboratory specifically designed to quantify the damages and degradation of building materials due to a realistic series of adverse climate and pollution events.

How to cite: Esteban Cantillo, O. J., Menendez, B., and Quesada, B.: Climate change impact on vernacular and archaeological cultural heritage building materials in Europe and Latin America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1776, 2022.

EGU22-2571 | Presentations | ERE1.4

Black crusts as past air pollution archives 

Mathilde Ropiquet, Aurélie Verney-Carron, and Anne Chabas

Since the Industrial revolution, emissions of pollutant (gas, aerosols) due to human activities increased and modified the composition of the atmosphere, causing air pollution and climate change. However, pollution measurements are relatively recent. In order to know past air pollution and assess its impact on monuments, proxies need to be found and studied.

One of these potential local proxies is black crusts that are a chemical alteration pattern mainly found on limestone or marble monuments. They are forming a dark mineralogical layer composed of gypsum (CaSO4.2H2O) that results from the sulfation reaction between the calcite (CaCO3) of the stone and the sulphur dioxide (SO2) from the atmosphere. As gypsum is easily soluble, this pattern particularly affects sheltered area from the rain where particulate matter is trapped and accumulates. Therefore, black crusts act as passive sampler and could be used as an archive of air pollution.

To validate black crusts nomination as a new proxy and to find the best pollution marker, samples were collected at Père Lachaise cemetery on ancient tombs (dated from the 1820’s). A specific protocol was applied to separate strata from each other. Then, multiple analyses were realised using SEM-EDS, ICP-AES, and ICP-MS. The results show a different particulate content as a function of the depth, with different contributions of fly-ash typical of coal and oil combustion. This is confirmed by the chemical analyses as the trace metal concentrations are in agreement with the pollution sources. This study demonstrates that laminar black crusts have an internal stratigraphy that can be crucial to reconstruct past air pollution and provides precious data on pollution sources.

How to cite: Ropiquet, M., Verney-Carron, A., and Chabas, A.: Black crusts as past air pollution archives, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2571, 2022.

EGU22-2850 | Presentations | ERE1.4

Making use of climate information for protecting cultural heritage from extreme weather events in a warming world 

Lola Kotova, Johanna Leissner, Matthias Winkler, Florian Antretter, Ralf Kilian, Jürgen Mossgraber, Jürgen Reuter, Tobias Hellmund, Anton Dolgov, Katharina Matheja Matheja, Michael Rohde Rhode, Uta Pollmer, and Uwe Mikolajewicz

The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in Europe are one of the most dangerous consequences of a warming climate. Some regions suffer more under heat waves and droughts, while others are experiencing extreme rainfalls. Thus, for example, a severe flood in July 2021 in several European countries caused widespread damages particularly in Belgium and Germany.

Which extreme weather events are to be expected in the future? How can the damage of irretrievable historical sites be avoided or, at least, limited or dealt with? All these questions are addressed in the three-year research project KERES, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and is coordinated by the Fraunhofer ISC together with the Fraunhofer EU Office in Brussels.

As first step the regional relevance of future extreme weather events in Germany will be investigated.  This information will be further used to estimate the potential damages to buildings and outdoor facilities. The precautionary and responsive measures to manage potential or acute damage situations will be investigated as well. The designed methodologies will be tested for five case studies including World Heritage Sites (historical buildings and historical gardens)  in Germany.

The major tools of KERES include building component and indoor climate simulations and high-resolution urban climate models. The necessary input will be taken from the most recent ensemble of regional climate change projections of the EURO-CORDEX Initiative (www.euro-cordex.net).  As a result, an ontology-based information system will be designed for managing the expected damage situations.

We will present first results from the KERES project. The discussion will be focused on how to access and visualize the robustness of projected changes of extreme weather events in a way oriented to individual cultural heritage sites.

How to cite: Kotova, L., Leissner, J., Winkler, M., Antretter, F., Kilian, R., Mossgraber, J., Reuter, J., Hellmund, T., Dolgov, A., Matheja, K. M., Rhode, M. R., Pollmer, U., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Making use of climate information for protecting cultural heritage from extreme weather events in a warming world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2850, 2022.

EGU22-2857 | Presentations | ERE1.4

The French monumental heritage in the face of global climate change: state of the art and research perspectives 

Roger-Alexandre Lefèvre, Peter Brimblecombe, and Aurélie Verney-Carron

France's monumental heritage has been the subject of little theoretical research in the face of global climate change, although many applied studies have concerned its adaptation and resilience, especially at the local level. Furthermore, this heritage includes more than 44,000 monuments and classified sites, 48 of which being inscribed on the UNESCO List and therefore deserves to be taken into account in the context of the current climate unbalance.

The complexity lies in the diversity of materials making up the monuments (stones, glass, metals, wood...) and of phenomena that affect them (as well as other constructions). In order to assess the impact of these increasing slow or extreme events already at work, the tools and methodologies range from the description and inventory of the effects, their measurement, mapping and projection into the future using models such as dose-response functions (DRF) with input data from climate models and scenarios. Ancient data can also be used to complement the correlation between climate and heritage, such as dendroclimatology studies of the wood in monuments.

Results from research carried out in France will be presented concerning stone facades, ancient stained glass windows, metals, degradation of walls by salts and dendroclimatology. Further research should focus on the consequences on the monumental heritage of rising marine waters, river and urban flood and low waters, freeze-thaw, the stability of monuments on clay soils and the indoor climate of monuments and their carbon footprint.

In conclusion, much remains to be done in France: (1) complete the inventory and description of the phenomena, their impacts and their location at the national, regional, urban and monumental scales, (2) quantify these impacts in the future via empirical or geochemical models based on climate models outputs.

How to cite: Lefèvre, R.-A., Brimblecombe, P., and Verney-Carron, A.: The French monumental heritage in the face of global climate change: state of the art and research perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2857, 2022.

EGU22-3476 | Presentations | ERE1.4

A Communities Engagement Mobile Application for Assessing the Resilience and Deterioration of Cultural Heritage Monuments 

Maria Krommyda, Nikos Mitro, Katerina Georgiou, Vassillis Nousis, and Angelos Amditis

Climate change has been proved to have negative impacts on historic areas hosting cultural heritage sites and monuments, which in turn yields significant adverse impacts on local economies, societies, and even politics. The first and necessary step of the process of confrontation of this challenge is the early detection and recording of the on-site inflicted damage by a monitoring tool. In order to achieve that, we developed a dedicated mobile application that aims to assist the assessment of the resilience and the deterioration of the historic areas and the potential impacts due to various hazards. Citizens and local authorities worldwide can directly use the developed application on their mobile phones to acquire photos of on-site damages and submit short reports based on them. This software component has been designed and developed in the context of the European project entitled “HYPERION”, which aims to deliver an integrated resilience assessment platform, addressing multi-hazard risk understanding, faster and efficient response, and sustainable reconstruction of historic areas.

With this application, we aim to create a user-friendly application with the latest user interface and usability issues/trends which is focused on museum enthusiasts and active citizens’ or travelers’ needs. It’s important to put the users of this targeted group at the center of our efforts and by understanding their needs to create an intuitive application for them and at the same time a useful tool for the local authorities.

Users download the application from the Google or Apple App store and they log in or create an account in the application through the PLUGGY platform, which was developed in the context of the “PLUGGY” European project. The main function of the application is to create and post an asset using PLUGGY’s REST API. An Asset is an elementary unit of content in PLUGGY, a media file with an identified owner, a title, a description, a set of tags, and a license, which specifies how this file can be reused. Initially, the user’s location is detected via GPS and corrected in case of miscalculation. The user is then prompted to select a photo (or directly to take a snapshot) that depicts the damage of a monument. To complete the creation of the asset, the user will also need to select a title that will accompany the photo, and some tags, not only for a better description of the event but also for correlation with other assets or exhibition points that already exist in PLUGGY.

The developed mobile application gives voice to citizens and encourages them to provide direct feedback to the relevant cultural authorities, in order to assist them in assessing the deterioration of the cultural heritage sites and determining the needed reconstruction actions. As a result, the communities can have a major role in the safeguard of their cultural heritage.

How to cite: Krommyda, M., Mitro, N., Georgiou, K., Nousis, V., and Amditis, A.: A Communities Engagement Mobile Application for Assessing the Resilience and Deterioration of Cultural Heritage Monuments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3476, 2022.

EGU22-5264 | Presentations | ERE1.4

A data-driven approach to understanding the equilibria behaviour of salt mixtures in built cultural heritage 

Scott Allan Orr, Sebastiaan Godts, and Tim De Kock

Salt weathering is a complex and active area of research, with implications for tangible cultural heritage worldwide. A preventive conservation approach is often taken to limit salt crystallisation cycles, which requires an understanding of the relative risks of scenarios and their respective heritage characteristics, salts present, and the climate, including climate change. Equilibrium relative humidity is an important property that indicates this risk: typically, it is represented by specific RH% and temperature derived from a single salt. The behaviour of single salts does not accurately represent the behaviour of salt mixtures, which are far more common in cultural heritage contexts. To address this, 11412 salt mixtures present in the built environment have been analysed using the ECOS/Runsalt model to predict their mixture-based mutual relative humidity of crystallisation and deliquescence points, the salt mixture composition, as well as the relative humidity of crystallisation and deliquescence for individual salts in the mixtures. This dataset, although sampled primarily from Belgian cultural heritage sites, is representative of the general classes of salt mixtures found in the built environment globally. This analysis represents an important step in developing a generalised statistical method for parameterising environmental time series data for salt weathering risk within climate change scenarios, as well as progressing fundamental knowledge on the behaviour of salt mixtures in built cultural heritage.

How to cite: Orr, S. A., Godts, S., and De Kock, T.: A data-driven approach to understanding the equilibria behaviour of salt mixtures in built cultural heritage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5264, 2022.

EGU22-5301 | Presentations | ERE1.4

The influence of biofouling on water transport inside porous stones 

Laurenz Schröer, Tim De Kock, Sebastiaan Godts, Nico Boon, and Veerle Cnudde

During the 21st Century, climate change and improving air quality will alter biological communities and their influence on building stones. While air pollution used to be a principal factor of stone deterioration, it is diminishing in many parts of the world. These environmental changes affect the aesthetics of building stones, and fewer black gypsum crusts will form, while more biological-induced discolorations could occur. Within the British Isles, it resulted in the “greening” of monuments after increased algal growth. Besides aesthetical damage, the formation of biofilms could affect water transport and retention. Changes in the water-stone relationship should be studied in detail because moisture is the most significant facilitator of stone alteration, leading to physical, chemical and further biological weathering.

This topic was intensely studied on soils. However, knowledge of the effect of biofilms on water transport and retention of stones is limited. For this reason, three porous natural building stones: Ernzen, Euville and Savonnières, were biofouled at the outer surface with the cyanobacteria Phormidium autumnale. The colonization was estimated by spectrophotometry, and their relationship with the stones was studied by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Environmental SEM (ESEM) and optical microscopy on thin sections. Based on the European standards, the water transport properties were determined of biofouled and untreated samples.

Microscopy showed that the biofilms covered the surface while they spanned over and closed numerous pores. They had a measurable effect on water transport and retention and reduced the rate of capillary water absorption and drying in combination with higher moisture content after (vapor) sorption. Moreover, the biofilms changed the surface wettability and induced near hydrophobic conditions in a dry state while no effect was measured on the water vapor diffusion and air permeability. These changes can alter the material properties and other processes like salt weathering and freeze-thaw damage. As swelling and shrinkage were observed by ESEM, the properties and physical effects of biofilms are expected to change with fluctuating relative humidity.

How to cite: Schröer, L., De Kock, T., Godts, S., Boon, N., and Cnudde, V.: The influence of biofouling on water transport inside porous stones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5301, 2022.

Historical buildings, which play a major role in shaping the urban fabric, are facing challenges due to climate change. Today the cultural values are considered among the main goals of sustainable development much like the social, economic and environmental values. Therefore it is important to discover the sustainable ways of conservation and maintenance practices on mitigating the impacts of climate change, so that the historical buildings can play an active role in achieving sustainable development goals without compromising their cultural and heritage values.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are considered as sustainable and effective solutions on mitigating impacts of climate stressors. Exploring their compatibility to conservation practices can bring mutual opportunities to the urban fabric and to the historical buildings. However, nature has been considered as a threat amongst the conservation practices due to potential biodegradation of materials, obscuring the heritage structure and requiring an additional cost of maintenance. Nevertheless, many uses of nature-based solutions come across in history, e.g. in the form of turf or sod roofs that provide thermal insulation on extreme climate conditions. Today, there are some attempts to integrate NbS to heritage environments within the scope of retrofitting projects. Nevertheless, a comprehensive methodology of performance assessment on mitigating climate challenges without compromising the cultural and heritage values has not been developed yet.

This project aims to develop a decision making framework for heritage actors on evaluating the compatibility of NbS to conservation and maintenance practices of historical buildings that are exposed to adverse impacts of climate stressors in the urban context. For developing a general outline of the framework, various NbS will be evaluated and categorized based on quantitative data in the literature according to their aesthetic fit to historic buildings, their structural feasibility and their performance on mitigating the effects of climate stressors. Throughout the project, process and value based research will be conducted on carefully selected case studies. The selected case studies will be evaluated within the scope of determining the severity of the prevailing climate stressors in their context, their structural sensitivity and their adaptability capacity to the new interventions. Based on the results, the compatible NbS and design measures can be identified. In the later stages of the project, the feasibility of the proposed nature-based design for the case studies will be tested by monitoring and comparing the results before and after the implementation.

How to cite: Kale, E., De Groeve, M., and De Kock, T.: Developing a Decision Making Tool for Evaluating the Compatibility of Nature-Based Solutions to the Built Heritage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5311, 2022.

EGU22-5806 | Presentations | ERE1.4

Influence of rock pore structure on the protective coating against weathering 

Chiaki Oguchi and Yukina Ikeda

Tuff is rich in color and is used as a stone material, and it is also a rock that forms a unique landscape in Japan, a volcanic country. However, since it is generally a fragile rock, it is susceptible to weathering and deterioration. The present study conducted an experiment to confirm the effectiveness of the surface protectant using tuff with different physical characteristics. Sodium sulfate aqueous solution was used to determine the effectiveness of protective agent application for 5 types of tuff (Oya stone, Nikka stone, Ashino stone, Tatsuyama stone, Towada stone) An experiment was conducted in which the lower 3 cm of a 5 cm × 5 cm × 15 cm specimen that had been oven-dried at 110 ° C was immersed in a salt solution, and 20 ° C-40 ° C was repeated for up to 20 cycles in a 48-hour cycle. When the weight and P-wave velocity of each specimen were measured every cycle, the solution reached the surface of the uncoated stone material for comparison, salt crystals were deposited. The surface of the specimen was peeled off, and the P-wave velocity gradually decreased.  On the other hand, in the stone material coated with the protective agent, salt crystallization was not observed even when the solution reached the top surface shortly after the start of the experiment.  The P wave velocity did not decrease, despite cracks occurred as the experiment progressed. As a result, the P-wave velocity began to decrease and the surface layer fell off. In Ashino and Tatsuyama stones, the coated specimens were more severely destroyed than the uncoated specimens. In Oya stone and Towada stone, which contain clay minerals (miso) in the form of patches, crushing proceeded from the miso part. This experiment suggests that the effect of the protective agent may depend on the rock structure and the pore diameter. In other words, for rocks containing miso, the use of a protective agent is likely to increase deterioration regardless of the pore structure. For rocks with a large proportion of micropores and low durability against salt weathering, the use of a protective agent is used. Therefore, the start time of surface exfoliation can be delayed. In addition, in rocks with a large proportion of large gaps (> 10-0.5 μm), even if crystallization occurs on the surface of the specimen. The  peeling does not occur for a while, but the protective agent penetrates deep into the thick protective agent penetration area. It is considered that the crystallization of the salt occurs more internally and the deterioration is more severe than it should be. 

How to cite: Oguchi, C. and Ikeda, Y.: Influence of rock pore structure on the protective coating against weathering, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5806, 2022.

EGU22-5898 | Presentations | ERE1.4

Developing a new method for long-term monitoring of the weathering of historical building materials 

Luigi Germinario, Chiara Coletti, Petros Choidis, Dimitrios Kraniotis, Lara Maritan, Raffaele Sassi, Laura Tositti, and Claudio Mazzoli

This contribution presents the work of research and technical development for designing a novel method for monitoring and predicting the weathering of cultural heritage, in particular of stones and timber used historically as building materials.
An apparatus for long-term field tests was designed in its hardware and software components with a twofold application:

  • Exposure of a set of selected stone and wood specimens to natural weathering, at different orientations (North, South, and horizontal plane) and environmental settings (Italy and Norway).
  • Non-stop acquisition of microclimate data series at different resolutions, down to the scale of the specimen surface, completed by datasets of regional stations of environmental monitoring.

Complementary laboratory analyses aim at setting a reference point for the state of conservation of each material before the exposure tests, and monitoring the changes of surface recession/topography (by 3D optical profilometry), thus reconstructing the relevant deterioration trends.
Within the framework of the EU-funded project HYPERION, this novel experimental approach is expected to help assessing the interaction of building materials with the environment and their weathering constrained by microclimate and climate variability; combining climate model simulations, the stresses brought about by climate change can also be assessed. The findings might represent a source of precious information for the activities and decision-making protocols of the stakeholders involved in the protection of cultural heritage.

How to cite: Germinario, L., Coletti, C., Choidis, P., Kraniotis, D., Maritan, L., Sassi, R., Tositti, L., and Mazzoli, C.: Developing a new method for long-term monitoring of the weathering of historical building materials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5898, 2022.

EGU22-7085 | Presentations | ERE1.4

The effect of vertical urban greening on historical building materials 

Marie De Groeve, Eda Kale, Scott Allan Orr, and Tim De Kock

Due to hard coverage and building infrastructures, cities experience higher temperatures and higher pollution levels in their city centre relative to their less dense surroundings. This urban heat island effect is receiving an increasing amount of attention and concern. In response, cities are implementing green initiatives to mitigate elevated temperature and pollution levels, improving the health and well-being of their residents. However, the urban heat island is typically the largest in the historical core of the city, where the abundance of built heritage can make the implementation of green initiatives difficult. The dense urban fabric and the rules of conservation make such an implementation inconvenient. A major concern is how green initiatives might affect the condition of the historical building materials.

Therefore we scope the compatibility of vertical greening with built heritage, in terms of microclimatic changes, and considering impacts of salt crystallization, frost events, biodeterioration and pollutant deposition. The vertical greening represents vegetation growing along exterior walls. Either plants, rooted on the ground, climb up the facade by attaching themselves on the vertical surfaces or plants hang down from the top of the facade. Monitoring case studies in Antwerp and laboratory studies will help us investigate key changes, beneficial or adverse, in the material condition of heritage buildings. This project will develop our understanding of the relationship between the green initiatives and the historical materials in an urban area.

How to cite: De Groeve, M., Kale, E., Orr, S. A., and De Kock, T.: The effect of vertical urban greening on historical building materials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7085, 2022.

EGU22-7880 | Presentations | ERE1.4

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on the still existing 28 Norwegian Stave Churches 

Chiara Bertolin and Elena Sesana

Norway, nowadays, still preserves outstanding examples of traditional Scandinavian wooden architecture called stavkirker (i.e., stave churches), these are typical Norwegian medieval churches built since 11th-12th Centuries with posts and staves as load bearing elements. This homogeneous group of immovable cultural heritage share similar architectural features, construction materials, as well as tangible and intangible values. They represent the highly developed tradition of wooden buildings that extended at these latitudes during Middle Ages and incorporate a large reuse of decorative and construction elements originating from other stave churches built in earlier centuries. Besides having similar use and maintenance requirements still today, the stave churches have similar vulnerability, as well as risk assessment and preservation needs.

 

For their protection it becomes fundamental to analyse and predict the impact of climate change in term of expected extreme temperature and rainfall events. In fact, modification of temperature (and consequently relative humidity) and/or of precipitation amount may cause rot to the Pine wood material constituting the churches or may enhance the mechanisms of biological and mechanical decay with an ultimate loss of valuable building assets.

 

This contribution focuses on the whole group of the still existing 28 stave churches spread over 6 regions in centre-south Norway with different climate, from temperate continental climate/humid continental climate (Dfb in the Köppen classification) to cool continental subarctic climate (Dfc) passing through the Tundra climate (ET). The work introduces an overview of the churches` architectural categorization, location, and flood vulnerability; then it focuses on climate change impacts. For the analysis of temperature and precipitation extreme events the modelled grid data from the Norwegian Climate Service Center (https://nedlasting.nve.no/klimadata/kss)  over 1x1 km spatial resolution have been used. These forecasts have been produced using the regional climate model simulation COSMO-CLM1 (Consortium for small scale modelling in Climate Mode) considering the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 (i.e., slow increase of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere until 2050 followed by emission reduction over time with, in addition, a human-induced radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2). More than 100 Gb of data were elaborated to create a novel database with daily temporal resolution over two reference time periods i.e., the recent past (RP, 1991-2020) and the far future (FF, 2071-2100) for the location closest to each stave church. Further the analysis concentrates on extreme precipitation and temperature occurrences (e.g., > 99.99 percentile) investigated as cumulative distribution function (CDF) and complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Results highlight expected anomalies in extreme events for all the 28 locations and report the total extreme precipitation and temperature related hazards as indexes which easily allow to categorize the change in risk for each stave church.

References:1Rockel, B., Will, A., & Hense, A. (2008). The regional climate model CLM. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17, 347–348

How to cite: Bertolin, C. and Sesana, E.: Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on the still existing 28 Norwegian Stave Churches, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7880, 2022.

EGU22-8670 | Presentations | ERE1.4

Mn-rich Black Patina Formation on Built Heritage in Humid Areas 

David Martin Freire-Lista, Rebeca Blanco-Rotea, Maria do Rosário Costa, and Jorge Sanjurjo-Sánchez

This study aims to characterise the decay due to black patinas of Santalla de Bóveda Monument (Lugo, Northwest of Galicia, Spain).

Manganese is one of the most abundant elements on Earth, and the granite on which Santalla de Bóveda Monument was built (used as building material of the monument) has considerable amounts of Manganese. This monument shows black patinas on the surface of its building materials (mortars and granites).

Mortars and granite with Mn-rich black patinas were analysed in their chemical, mineralogical and petrographical properties (polarizing and scanning electron microscopes, X-ray diffraction and X-ray fluorescence). In addition, the water from springs near the monument was analysed.

According to the experimental study results, it was observed that rich Mn-oxide crusts are presumably induced by bacteria. That is, the oxidation of Mn fuels the growth of chemolithoautotrophic microorganisms, which need water to live. These patinas of biogenic Mn-oxide minerals presented different shapes, nano-dimensions, with low degree of crystallinity, and appear to be composed of manganese oxides such as birnessite, ramsdellite and groutellite. They were associated with large amounts of extracellular polymeric substances exuded by filamentous bacterial communities, which serve as nuclei for preferential precipitation of manganese oxides on the extracellular sheaths, as seen in scanning electron microscope analyses.

Mn required for patina formation likely derives from the reductive dissolution in water of Mn-rich minerals, as suggested by the mineralogy and chemistry of Mn-rich phases present in the building granite and mortars. Mn migrates to the exposed surface of building materials, where they are re-oxidized via biological processes. Patinas developing over time result from the alternation of wetting-reducing and drying-oxidizing cycles.

Water absorption, dampness and black patinas are among the most common and critical problems when it comes to decay of both cultural heritage and modern buildings. The climate and specifically the humidity are determinant for the development of Mn-rich black patinas. Results revealed that chemical composition and porosity played a major role in the development of biological activity that generates the black patinas of manganese oxides on mortars and granite.

How to cite: Freire-Lista, D. M., Blanco-Rotea, R., Costa, M. D. R., and Sanjurjo-Sánchez, J.: Mn-rich Black Patina Formation on Built Heritage in Humid Areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8670, 2022.

Weathering is a key component of the geomorphological process system and poses a major threat to cultural heritage, such as building structures and rock art sites. Since almost all rock decay is enhanced by the presence of water, research on moisture content and flow is crucial to understanding weathering processes. Nevertheless, measuring rock moisture and its fluctuations is difficult as there is no universally used sensor that meets the requirements of non-destructiveness, reliability, repeatability, and applicability at field sites. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate several moisture measurement techniques under different natural conditions and to provide recommendations for their use. We tested seven types of methods (1D resistivity, 2D resistivity, TDR, borehole humidity, microwave reflectance, IR thermography, and uranine probes) under controlled conditions in a sandstone block that was subject to a slow wetting and drying cycle and to a series of freeze-thaw cycles.

Overall, the methods measuring dielectric properties of the rock (TDR, microwave) can be generally recommended for their reliability, repeatability, and applicability at field sites. Precise observation of moisture dynamics in deeper subsurface however remains a challenge, especially when moisture contents are close to drier states. Therefore, to get reliable water content data, it is vital to drill inside the rock rather than to use surface sensors, which are particularly sensitive to surface moisture and surface roughness. Nonetheless, out of the non-destructive surface methods, dielectric sensors using the microwave spectrum with a greater penetration depth (>10 cm) should be considered as they have the advantage of interacting the transmitted signal into a larger volume of material, therefore making the influence of surface less pronounced. Furthermore, the use of electrical resistance methods is less recommended because of mainly two factors: they need to be calibrated for each sensor pair, and they are prone to erroneous measurements in the presence of salts. Concerning the other methods, probes using a reactive dye, and borehole humidity sensors can be used to determine the location of the subsurface evaporation front where salt crystallisation takes place, and the IR imaging for studying evaporation dynamics needs either highly controlled environment or continuous measurement. In conclusion, this work provides new insights into rock moisture measurements and further research should focus on subsurface moisture measurements and the improvement and calibration of available techniques.

How to cite: Weiss, T. and Sass, O.: The challenge of measuring rock moisture: A laboratory experiment using eight types of sensors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8814, 2022.

Water plays a vital role in the deterioration and conservation of built heritage and management problems might be aggravated by climate change. However, there is as yet no overarching framework for understanding the processes and impacts of water interacting with building materials. The term 'Heritage Hydrology' is a holistic way of conceptualising the flows and stores of water involved in deterioration of built and rock-hewn heritage. We distinguish the following basic types: (a) stone-built buildings, (b) ruins and free-standing walls, and (c) rock-hewn sites which include carved rock art and large rock sculptures. We focus on a key knowledge gap: The spatial and temporal characteristics of water flows/stores and the challenges of using currently available techniques to provide information on these characteristics.

In our selective review we provide examples of spatio-temporal patterns of moisture in stonework at different scales. We raise six key points about the state of research on heritage hydrology, from which we develop a future research agenda. (1) Three characteristics of moisture regimes are important to deterioration, i.e. presence, fluctuations and saturation thresholds. (2) There is a wide range of different heritage hydrological settings ranging from masonry building walls to natural rock slopes, and as yet no clear understanding of the commonalities vs specificities of these different settings. (3) While there is now a wide array of techniques available to measure and monitor moisture regimes in lab and field settings, the understanding of how comparable different measurement approaches are is still lacking. (4) There are now many measurements of the spatial patterning of moisture, but lack of clarity about the causes of these patterns. (5) There has been less research focusing on the temporal dynamics of moisture on heritage walls than on spatial patterns. (6) Studies combining measurement and modelling have proved particularly useful.

A research agenda for the future for heritage hydrology should focus on addressing the following broad questions: What are the best combinations of methods available to measure and model spatio-temporal patterns in moisture on built and rock-hewn heritage? What are the major factors controlling spatio-temporal patterns in moisture, also considering climatic changes? Which spatio-temporal patterns in moisture are most important for driving deterioration, and how do their respective scales interact? Tackling these research questions requires a coordinated approach, linking different research teams and methodologies. It should be based on a combination of data collected through laboratory experiments, detailed studies of test walls, and instrumented sections of walls at heritage sites. It should explore the causes and consequences of moisture regimes which provide fundamental links between climate and the deterioration of built and rock-hewn heritage.

How to cite: Sass, O. and Viles, H.: Heritage hydrology: A conceptual framework for understanding water fluxes and storage in built and rock-hewn heritage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10024, 2022.

EGU22-11582 | Presentations | ERE1.4

A risk assessment tool for the protection of cultural heritage exposed to extreme climate events. 

Alessandro Sardella, Stefano Natali, Riccardo Cacciotti, Milos Drdácký, and Alessandra Bonazza

The risk to cultural heritage as a consequence of the impact of climate change is globally recognized, even though not exhaustively tackled with sustainable solutions and tools addressed to support policy and decision makers in the preparedness phase of risk reduction and management cycle.

This contribution aims at presenting the methodological approach applied and main results of the “Risk mapping tool for cultural heritage protection” specifically dedicated to the safeguarding of cultural heritage exposed to extreme climate changes, produced in the framework of the Interreg Central Europe STRENCH (2020 - 2022). STRENCH project is strongly based on a user-driven approach and the multidisciplinary collaboration among the scientific community, public authorities, rescue bodies and the private sector (https://www.protecht2save-wgt.eu/).

The presented tool provides hazard maps for Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin where cultural and natural heritage is exposed to heavy rain, flooding and prolonged drought. The tool enables assessing risk of cultural heritage assets based on:

  • the computation of extreme changes of precipitation and temperature performed using climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI);
  • the exploitation of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), together with Earth Observation-based data and products;
  • the integration with outputs from Regional Climate Models from the Euro-CORDEX experiment under two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5);
  • a developed methodology for identifying the main critical elements determining the vulnerability of cultural heritage;
  • the ranking of the vulnerability taking into account 3 main aspects, namely the susceptibility, exposure and resilience of cultural heritage.

Preliminary results from the testing of the “risk mapping tool” at European case studies (Krems-Stein in Austria and Troja-Prague in Czech Republic) allow concluding on the feasibility and applicability of the tool presented in the perspective of optimizing preparedness strategies and mitigating the risk of cultural heritage subject to climate change related actions.

In conclusion, the STRENCH project, through the implementation of its outputs, is expected to proactively target the needs and requirements of stakeholders and policymakers responsible for disaster mitigation and safeguarding of cultural heritage assets and to foster the active involvement of citizens and local communities in the decision-making process.

How to cite: Sardella, A., Natali, S., Cacciotti, R., Drdácký, M., and Bonazza, A.: A risk assessment tool for the protection of cultural heritage exposed to extreme climate events., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11582, 2022.

The climate of the city of Tønsberg in Norway is cold and humid. As a result, the brick-made historic buildings in this city are threatened by frost damage. Climate change is expected to affect the action of this degradation mechanism. In the current research, climate data resulting from the REMO2015 driven by the global model MPI-ESM-LR were used for periods 1960-69, 2010-2019, and 2060-69 representing the past, present, and future climate conditions. In addition, data from the ERA5 reanalysis for the present conditions, 2010-19, were used to assess the accuracy of the climate model data. Given the climate excitations, the freeze-thaw events were calculated according to two climate indices, i) the events of temperature decrease below 0oC and ii) by considering that freezing occurs below -3oC and thawing occurs above 1oC. Moreover, a material response-based index that takes into account the temperature and the moisture content of a 5mm layer in the exterior side of the wall assembly was calculated. Prior to its calculation proper hygrothermal simulations were performed. According to this index, the critical temperature and degree of saturation that characterize a freeze-thaw event are 0oC and 25%, respectively. From the climate model data and the first climate index, the 0oC crossings that were calculated are 400, 340, and 223 under the past, present, and future conditions, respectively. The respective number of the freeze-thaw events that were calculated by using the second climate index are 49, 31, and 27 which are significantly lower. From the data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis, the number of freeze-thaw events that were calculated is 425 and 123 for the first and the second climate index, respectively. This difference is attributed to the underestimation of the air temperature in the climate model data, which results in a lower number of temperatures hovering around the examined thresholds during winter. The results of the material response-based index show a minor frost risk for the brick-made wall assemblies which is reduced through the years. The southeast-oriented walls were the ones with the highest exposure to driving rain and the greatest frost damage risk. For this orientation, the number of freeze-thaw events was 6, 3, and 2 under past, present, and future conditions, respectively. Moreover, according to the ERA5 reanalysis, only 1 freeze-thaw event was calculated. This is attributed to the fact that the climate model overestimates significantly the precipitation and the relative humidity compared to the ERA5 reanalysis. In conclusion, it is worth mentioning that both the climate-based and the material response-based indices define a decreasing trend of the frost damage risk of historic brick-made walls due to climate change. The use of the material response-based index is suggested for a more accurate assessment of the frost damage which can further support proper adaptation measures. Finally, the quality of the results can be improved by using climate data from more climate models and applying bias correction or morphing methodologies on the climate files to avoid systematic errors.

How to cite: Choidis, P. and Kraniotis, D.: Climate-based and material response-based approaches for the impact assessment of climate change on the frost damage of historic brick walls in Tønsberg, Norway., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12070, 2022.

Dust is one of the main pollutants that settle on historic structures and cause the blackening of stone surfaces. The stone facades of historic buildings became dark, and besides its aesthetic alteration, dust deposition and subsequent chemical reactions led to the deterioration of the construction material. The composition of dust changes in time due to climate change, clean air acts and changes in transportation, industrial activities and heat. The present study tries to detect the temporal changes in the composition of dust by using a stone buildings as dust traps in Budapest. The studied historic building is more than one hundred years old, and no façade cleaning was done in the past century. Visual inspection of the city centre building suggested that dust accumulation show a distinct pattern representing differences in the vertical profile in terms of thickness and colour. Dust samples were collected from layer to layer representing newly settled and historical dust. Scaffolds were made to reach the various elevations of the building facades. Besides the dust, host rock samples were also picked to detect textural and compositional changes of the porous oolitic limestone material. The textural-mineralogical analyses (XRD, SEM) and chemical compositional tests (XRF, LA-ICP-MS) provide evidence of changes in composition of dust with time. In all host rock samples, gypsum was detected but in various proportions. Good correlations were also found between water-soluble calcium and gypsum content and between sulphate and gypsum content both for black crusts and host rocks, forming two distinct fields in calcium vs gypsum and sulphate vs gypsum graphs. Gypsum was also found in the dust either as a primary or as a secondary mineral phase. Metals, transition metals and water-soluble ions also occur in various concentrations in different layers of dust. The detected elements primarily include  Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Cr, Pb, Ni. From soluble salts, chloride, nitrate and sulphate were also detected. The changes in elemental and ionic concentrations reflect temporal changes in dust composition and provide indirect evidence for air quality changes and air pollution levels.

How to cite: Török, Á.: Compositional changes of settling dust in time on buildings in Budapest: centennial evidence of air pollution trends, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12113, 2022.

EGU22-445 | Presentations | NH9.11

Contrasts in volcanic risk perception among Goma population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021 (East DR Congo) 

Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Caroline Michellier, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Matthieu Kervyn

Risk perception is an essential element to consider for effective risk management at time of eruption, especially in densely populated cities close to volcanoes. The city of Goma in the East of the DR Congo is one these cities highly exposed to volcanic hazards and highly populated. The perception of volcanic risk involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of volcanic hazards. Using a questionnaire survey, this study describes the spatial variation and factors influencing the individual volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults from height representative neighbourhoods of the city of Goma before the May 2021 Nyiragongo eruption. A composite risk perception indicator was built from the perceived likelihood of occurrence of volcanic hazards and of their impacts and from the perceived likelihood of being personally impacted. Statistical analysis of survey’s results shows that the risk perception is mostly shaped by risk cognitive and psychological factors rather than demographic factors (group, family status and previous risk experience). Perceived personal exposure to and predictive power of environmental cues (sights and sounds that are considered to indicate a hazard onset) positively shape risk perception. The higher the level of personal understanding and interest in seeking  risk information, the higher the risk perception. In addition, risk perception leads to high level of anxiety. Finally, the spatial analysis shows that the highest level of risk perception was observed in the eastern part of the city, previously impacted by lava flows in 2002.  

How to cite: Mafuko Nyandwi, B., Michellier, C., Muhashy Habiyaremye, F., Kervyn, F., and Kervyn, M.: Contrasts in volcanic risk perception among Goma population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021 (East DR Congo), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-445, 2022.

EGU22-2009 | Presentations | NH9.11

Living on landslides: land use on unstable slopes in a rural environment of the Rift flanks west of Lake Kivu (DR Congo) 

Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Olivier Dewitte, and Charles Bielders

Whereas landslides have been widely studied in terms of dangerous phenomena and land degradation processes, they may also be a source of opportunities for local communities in developing countries.  Indeed, landslides modify topography, soil characteristics or local hydrology, which may lead to favorable conditions for human settlements, agriculture, or mining activities. However, little is known about the factors that influence landslide valorization. The aim of this study was to assess, based on the characteristics of the landslides and land user’s perception of risk, the extent, modes of valorization and degree of satisfaction in exploiting landslides in the Kalehe region on the rift flanks west of Lake Kivu. Seventy landslides were selected out of 785 inventoried landslides by stratified sampling according to three criteria (type of movement, size, and position of landslide on the rift flanks). In addition, the landslides were characterized in terms of the local lithology, their age and depth. A survey was carried out with farmers exploiting these landslides.  In addition, a comparative study of land uses in and outside the landslides was performed. We collected opinions from 82 farmers on 57 landslides of the 70 initially selected due to accessibility or safety constraints. All visited landslides were exploited except for three.  All respondents knew about landslides, and more than 75% could report signs of landslide activity on their parcel. Almost 90% of these farmers consider the landslide risk to be high to very high, especially in the case of recent landslides and those with a flow movement. Compared to adjacent flanks, land values are higher and farmer satisfaction greater inside landslides characterized by less steep slopes, higher fertility, deeper soils, wetter soil, and lower stoniness, which is preferentially associated with old, deep-seated, and large landslides with a slide movement. On the contrary, land in recent landslides is cheaper. Farmer satisfaction is lower inside these landslides that are less wet, less fertile, shallower, or richer in sand content than the adjacent flanks. Spatial analysis revealed a differentiation in land uses in the landslides compared to the surrounding flanks. Subsistence crops occupy a larger proportion inside the landslides, while eucalyptus plantations and pastures have higher proportion outside. Statistical tests revealed that landslide characteristics significantly explain the differences in land use proportions for subsistence crop, forest, and banana land uses. Landslides less favorable for valorization are generally small, with very steep topography. This study shows that almost all landslides are being exploited by farmers and that farmers adapt their land use to the type of landslide. Some types of landslides further offer more favorable conditions for cropping that land outside landslides.  Despite the high perceived risk of landsliding, human settlement on unstable slopes would be justified because any future hazards are outweighed by the immediacy of the benefits. Better understanding the reasons for the settlement of rural populations on unstable landslides may help devise better risk mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Maki Mateso, J.-C., Dewitte, O., and Bielders, C.: Living on landslides: land use on unstable slopes in a rural environment of the Rift flanks west of Lake Kivu (DR Congo), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2009, 2022.

EGU22-2600 | Presentations | NH9.11

Towards a collaborative governance regime for disaster risk reduction: exploring scalar narratives of institutional change in Nepal. 

Caroline Russell, Julian Clark, David Hannah, and Fraser Sugden

This paper contributes to the study of collaborative governance (CG) - systems where autonomous actors work together around shared objectives using pooled resources to address a common goal. Among CG’s claimed benefits are boosting actor capacities for transformative action and increasing their resilience to complex multi-scaled challenges such as hazards and sudden catastrophic events. We engage with collaborative governance through a case study of changing public policy and institutional structures that govern hazards in Nepal. Following the shocking event of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal’s approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been reshaped by federalisation and institutional reforms that aim to embed a governing system based on greater collaboration. We argue this shift amounts to a state transition to a collaborative governance regime (CGR) for DRR. Using primary qualitative data derived from 17 semi-structured interviews at national, provincial, and local scales, we identify state-sponsored scalar narratives around 1) actor capacities and tendencies in DRR; 2) knowledge production on DRR and its dissemination; and 3) formal and informal institutional DRR roles and responsibilities. We show how these narratives are being used as anchor points for a new CG approach to national DRR strategy. However, our analysis shows these narratives risk excluding local participation in DRR by marginalising grassroots politics to emphasise top-down state-led goals. In turn, this leads us to question the viability of the emerging governance regime as a truly collaborative project embedding principles of sustainability and inclusivity. We conclude that if these state scalar narratives continue to shape national policy, they will impede the potential for transformative collaborative action for DRR in Nepal.

How to cite: Russell, C., Clark, J., Hannah, D., and Sugden, F.: Towards a collaborative governance regime for disaster risk reduction: exploring scalar narratives of institutional change in Nepal., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2600, 2022.

EGU22-2991 | Presentations | NH9.11

Building a climate change impacts portal for Senegal to promote decision making 

Benjamin Sultan and Youssouph Sane

In recent decades, West Africa has experienced some of the most extreme rainfall variability anywhere in the world with adverse impacts on different sectors such as food security or water resources. Climate projections for the 21st century tend to show that the future could be even worse. Better access to reliable climate information underpins effective climate change adaptation in a variety of sectors. However the data needed are often hard to find and there are major obstacles which limit the confidence and use of this information in decision-making processes: climate data use requires very good IT skills and climate knowledge. Effective and easy to use climate tools require a clear need for interactive climate portals that allow data visualization and download for further analysis. Although, some climate portals already exist in West Africa, most of them suffer from major flaws or were not designed based on user’s needs. To address this challenge, IRD together with ANACIM (Senegalese Meteorological Service) co-designed a Web-portal in Senegal with high quality simulations and following three steps to make it usable by stakeholders: (i) build a dialogue with relevant stakeholders, (ii) develop methodologies for using climate and impacts models and (iii) perform capacity building and training activities. This talk will illustrate those three steps of the design of the Web-portal.

How to cite: Sultan, B. and Sane, Y.: Building a climate change impacts portal for Senegal to promote decision making, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2991, 2022.

Geological hazard caused by ground movements (landslides, subsidence...) are difficult to assess at regional scale due to the large number of potential vulnerable elements.

The paper shows an innovative methodology for a quickly quantify of principal infrastructures (buildings, roads, and railways) structural vulnerability in urban settlements affected by ground movements detected by the Active Deformation Areas (ADA) obtained by medium and high-resolution radar satellites interferometry (Sentinel-1A / B and Cosmo-SkyMed, respectively).

The methodology, tested in the Pyrenean counties of La Cerdanya and Alt Urgell (Catalunya, NE Spain) in the framework of the MOMPA project, has served as the basis for a preliminary estimation a long-term of physical and economic vulnerability. Open information from Cadastral and topographic data (such us, OpenStreetMap®) have been used to calculate vulnerability to buildings, roads, and the railways.

Physical building vulnerability has been calculated from the expected damages according to the type of building, based on this case on the age of the construction. For economic vulnerability, has been used the average of second-hand sale price. The physical vulnerability in roads has determined from the expected damage according to the categories (typology) of existing roads and, the economic one, on the basis the linear average construction price. In the same way, have been calculated the railways vulnerabilities. The vulnerability ranges have been determined based on the expected damage classes based on our experience and existing works. The hazard, an essential variable for the calculation of vulnerability, has been determined by the intensity of the phenomenon derived by the ADA intensity. This intensity allows obtaining a direct estimate of the magnitude of the ground movement. Thus, the hazard is determined by the strain rate (mm / year) of the satellite monitoring data.

This methodology provides a first vulnerability assessment of the vulnerable elements detected by that ADA that allows optimizing and prioritizing efforts in works related to geological risk management and making a rapid assessment of loss at the vulnerable elements.

The clustering of scattering points of the Sentinel 1 A / B data gave a result of 361 ADA, and 59 ADA from the Cosmo-SkyMed satellite (over an area of around 2,000 km2). Between the two satellites, 80 ADA have detected buildings with a category of superficial damage for deformation rates <16 mm / year and an average loss of 5% of their value. 135 ADA affect some category of roads, causing superficial damage (20% of losses) in 96% and structural damage (80% of losses) in the remaining. No railways were affected by the Active Deformation Area (ADA) in Alt Urgell and La Cerdanya counties.

This work has been supported by the European Commission under the Interreg V-A-POCTEFA programme (grant no. Mompa – EFA295/19).

How to cite: Fabregat, I., Marturià, J., Buxó, P., and López-Quintanilla, C.: Rapid physical and economic vulnerability assessment of the elements affected by Active Deformation Areas (ADA) detected by radar interferometry in the central Pyrenees of Catalonia (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4056, 2022.

EGU22-5724 | Presentations | NH9.11

Compensating the absent or incomplete data required in vulnerability analyses via GIS. A case study on the surface geology and building stock of Iași City, Romania 

Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, Nicușor Necula, Mihai Niculiță, Adrian Grozavu, and Daniela Larion

Access to comprehensive and updated statistical and spatial databases represents a prerequisite of sound risk, hazard, vulnerability and resilience analyses, which have been advancing in terms of complexity and efficiency for the last 50 years, alongside the development of GIS techniques. Without adequate quantitative and qualitative datasets, research is sensitive to inaccurate and imprecise results, failing to meet the requirements for which it was designed and having zero input to the scientific progress.

Most developing countries - including Romania, face the problem of incomplete, inaccurate or outdated data in many fields of research, including geology-related fields and statistics about the building stock and transport infrastructure. These types of data are fundamental for vulnerability assessments of urban spaces to seismic or landslide hazards. This paper aims to provide a GIS-based methodology for acquiring datasets of the geological surface deposits and of the building stock at the scale of urban settlements, focusing on Iași City in the NE of Romania, respectively on the Țicău area of this city.

The mapping of geological surface deposits relies on automatic image analysis and landforms extraction algorithms that identify and delineate geological deposits based on slope and curvature, using High-resolution DEMs, as well as on cluster analysis. Slope deposits are delineated via watershed segmentation performed by Vision with Generic Algorithms (ViGRA), whereas the Schmidt-Hewitt classification is used to delineate floodplain and ridge deposits. The building stock is extracted from LiDAR point clouds with densities of 4 to 6 points per square meter using various approaches: neural network and deep learning for classification, and bounding rectangles for building boundary extraction. While LiDAR data is not available, high resolution imagery provided by the Copernicus programme can be used in conjunction with classification and edge detection algorithms to delineate building objects. The results are promising and show how the already available tools can be used to fill in the gaps of the “no-data problem” and overcome such a challenging issue. 

The obtained spatial data, namely surface deposits and building stock, become a major asset for the further vulnerability assessments that integrate geotechnical and physical aspects. This may help identify what local scale elements contribute to disaster resilience or, on the contrary, what fuels vulnerability.

How to cite: Albulescu, A.-C., Necula, N., Niculiță, M., Grozavu, A., and Larion, D.: Compensating the absent or incomplete data required in vulnerability analyses via GIS. A case study on the surface geology and building stock of Iași City, Romania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5724, 2022.

EGU22-6038 | Presentations | NH9.11 | Highlight

An international perspective on comprehensive climate risk management: experiences from Peru, India and Austria 

Isabel Hagen, Simon Allen, Chandra S. Bahinipati, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Veronica Karabaczek, Stefan Kienberger, Reinhard Mechler, Linda Menk, and Thomas Schinko

Climate-related sudden-onset events (e.g., floods, cyclones) and slow-onset processes (e.g., sea level rise and heat waves) pose a major risk to communities all over the world. With intensifying climate change in combination with unequal socioeconomic development, climate-related risks are expected to escalate in the future, potentially leading to critical losses and damages. This calls for efficient and achievable risk management strategies. Climate Risk Management (CRM) is a leading approach to identify, assess and reduce risks, through an integration of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation, and sustainable development. CRM aims at comprehensively managing risks and increasing resilience and adaptive capacity. To date, several conceptual CRM frameworks have been developed, which have, however, rarely been applied to real-world cases.

Based on this conceptual literature, we further develop a comprehensive CRM framework, comprising both the risk assessment as well as the implementation and monitoring domains of CRM, and test it on three real-world risk cases in Peru, India and Austria. The cases have distinct spatial scales, from local level in Peru, to district level in India, to nationwide in Austria. The risks covered in these cases are linked to different hazards, ranging from glacier lake outburst floods (Peru), sea level rise, salinization and cyclones (India), to riverine flooding and agricultural droughts (Austria).

The aim of this complementary case study approach is to validate the overall structure and individual steps of the CRM framework against actual risk management practices in the three case studies. Based on the specific results and common insights from the three cases, we are able to (1) evaluate the applicability of the proposed conceptual CRM framework in real world circumstances, (2) present evidence on the extent to which comprehensive management of climate-related risks has been achieved in the three cases, and (3) synthesize policy recommendations towards an achievable comprehensive CRM in practice, acknowledging specific local contexts and characteristics.

How to cite: Hagen, I., Allen, S., Bahinipati, C. S., Frey, H., Huggel, C., Karabaczek, V., Kienberger, S., Mechler, R., Menk, L., and Schinko, T.: An international perspective on comprehensive climate risk management: experiences from Peru, India and Austria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6038, 2022.

EGU22-7269 | Presentations | NH9.11

Extreme heat index for Parametric Risk Transfer in Northern India 

Obbe Tuinenburg, Wendy Smith, Bijal Brahmbhatt, Raji Gorana, and Jason Hartell

Characteristics of Parametric Risk Transfer 

Extreme heat events are an underrecognized natural hazard impacting many parts of society, and especially the vulnerable poor. Sometimes the effects of a heat event, or a heat wave, are measurable, such as in the relationship between heat and reproductive outcomes in agriculture, or directly as damaged infrastructure or higher cost of industrial cooling. More often, the true impacts and social costs are more difficult to quantify such as in the case of reduced labor productivity, spikes in moribundity and mortality and a variety of other business interruptions.

We present a parametric risk transfer product targeting extreme heat effects. The initial application of the product is for heat emergencies in working poor urban settings of Northern India, but the objective is to generalize the product globally.

Heat Index Selection

Central to a parametric risk transfer product is an index that is closely related to the damaging effects. This index should be based on an undisputed data source, that neither the insured or the insurance provider can influence. In parametric risk transfer, payouts are based on the index value, rather than an ex-post loss assessment. The main strengths of parametric products is that payments for an event can be made nearly immediately following a triggering event, providing financial resources to quickly address and mitigate losses.

We tested and present a large sample of the many extreme heat indexes which exist in the literature  pertaining to human physiology for their historical impacts on mortality and on business interruption from historical data in Europe and India.

We characterize the risk in terms of maximum severity as well as the bivariate relationship of severity and duration and derive exceedance probabilities. Based on this assessment, we adopt a generalized form of the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature as extreme heat index, based on the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis.

 

Implementation in Gujarat, India

The index will be implemented as part of a resilience building program with women’s network Mahila Housing Trust, across three cities in the Gujurat state of India. The index will form the basis of a risk transfer product with local credit cooperatives in these regions - ultimate beneficiaries will be individual cooperative members, women employed in the informal sector. A climate risk education program will also be offered concurrently to inform mitigation and adaptation measures for the cooperative members.

  Global applicability

The use of parametric risk transfer schemes to mitigate the effects of extreme heat is possible beyond the implementation in India. Based ont he lessons learnt in this pilot project, parametric products can be used in extreme heat risk adaptation if:

1. the index and data sources are defined and accepted by all local parties.

2. a strong local distribution channel is present

3. strong capacity is built to deal with basis risk

How to cite: Tuinenburg, O., Smith, W., Brahmbhatt, B., Gorana, R., and Hartell, J.: Extreme heat index for Parametric Risk Transfer in Northern India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7269, 2022.

EGU22-7440 | Presentations | NH9.11

Results by the Open-Air Laboratory Italy 

Paolo Ruggieri and the The OAL-Italy

The Open-Air Laboratory, a novel concept developed by the EU-funded Operandum project(OPEn-air laboRAtories for Nature baseD solutions to Manage Environmental risk) to co-design,implement and assess the effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs), has been introduced at the EGU General Assembly 2021  (Ruggieri, P. and the OAL-Italy: The Open-Air Laboratory Italy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9495, 2021.). In this work we present the results obtained in the framework of the Open-Air Laboratory Italy (OAL-Italy) related to innovative NBSs to mitigate the impact of hydrometeorological hazards in present and future climate. The results are multidisciplinary and involve novel modelling strategies, laboratory measurements and targeted monitoring open-field campaigns in three operational sites, where NBSs are implemented to mitigate a range of hydrometeorological hazards such as coastal erosion, flooding, storm surge and salt wedge intrusion. Innovative NBSs tested and developed by the OAL include deep-rooted plants installed on a river embankment to prevent levee failures, special plants that can live in high salt concentration and remove salt from the river mouth water, an artificial dune and marine seagrass to mitigate the impact of storm surges and coastal erosion. The three sites where these NBS are implemented are located in the Emilia Romagna region, in Northern Italy and they involve the Panaro river, a tributary of the Po river, a branch in the Po river delta and a beach in the north Adriatic sea close to the delta Po river. The innovative approaches to tackle the mentioned hazards are described and results in terms of monitoring campaign results in combination with modelling results are presented. We discuss the innovative approach proposed to test and validate the efficacy of the NBS in present and future climate, in order to evaluate the replicability and the upscaling of the NBSs. We confirm that the OAL constitutes an unprecedented holistic effort towards sustainable land management, adaptation to climate change and the acceptance of Nature-Based Solutions.

How to cite: Ruggieri, P. and the The OAL-Italy: Results by the Open-Air Laboratory Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7440, 2022.

EGU22-10141 | Presentations | NH9.11 | Highlight

European Biosphere Reserves - open air laboratories for tackling hydrometeorological hazards, OPERANDUM project 

Irina Pavlova, Zahra Amirzada, Beatrice Pulvirenti, Paolo Ruggieri, Laura Sandra Leo, Milan Kalas, and Silvana Di Sabatino

Hydrometeorological hazards such as floods, landslides and droughts are in many parts of the world occurring more frequently and more severely than in the past and are exacerbated by climate change. UNESCO-designated sites which focus on the protection and sustainable use of natural and cultural heritage are often partly or entirely exposed to natural hazards and extreme weather events, with potential impacts on the communities living in or near the sites, and on their livelihoods. Many natural UNESCO sites such as Biosphere Reserves and UNESCO Global Geoparks can serve as effective climate observatories and testing grounds for sustainable approaches including Nature-based Solutions (NBS).

NBS are based on the sustainable management, protection, and use of nature to mitigate environmental risks and preserve ecosystems, while providing environmental, social, and economic benefits, and building resilience to a changing climate. UNESCO promotes the uptake of integrated NBS for disaster risk reduction by leveraging local and scientific knowledge streams and participatory stakeholder engagement.

OPERANDUM is an EU-funded project supported by UNESCO that aims to deliver tools and methods to prove the efficacy of innovative NBS for multi-hazard hydro-meteorological risks in rural and natural areas. These so-called Open-Air Laboratories (OALs) comprise 10 rural territories, including two European Biosphere Reserves, where novel NBS practices are implemented and assessed through innovative monitoring systems and cutting-edge numerical modelling approaches.

The Po Delta Biosphere Reserve represents part of the OAL Italy where river flooding and subsequent salt intrusions driven by climate change and sea level rise threaten the livelihoods of local communities. Novel lab experiments have been developed to assess the ability of different plant species to function as effective natural barriers to salt intrusions and protect agricultural lands, reinforce the riverbank, and preserve inland water quality. In addition, advanced monitoring techniques and multi-scale impact modelling are deployed on site to estimate the impact of the NBS.

In an effort to promote upscaling of these solutions, OPERANDUM has developed an open-source online platform for NBS called the Geospatial Information Knowledge Platform (GeoIKP). Building on the knowledge acquired at the OALs, the platform offers a variety of cutting-edge services, interactive tools, customizable web-GIS functionalities, and standardized data repositories. It aims to serve as a hub for the global NBS community to share information, tools, data, and experiences to reduce hydro-meteorological hazards, and to address related societal challenges in rural areas.

How to cite: Pavlova, I., Amirzada, Z., Pulvirenti, B., Ruggieri, P., Leo, L. S., Kalas, M., and Di Sabatino, S.: European Biosphere Reserves - open air laboratories for tackling hydrometeorological hazards, OPERANDUM project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10141, 2022.

EGU22-10965 | Presentations | NH9.11

A Preliminary Assessment of the Indonesian Tsunami Ready Communities 

Suci Dewi Anugrah, Admiral Musa Julius, Daryono Daryono, Hidayanti Hidayanti, Weniza Weniza, Tribowo Kriswinarso, Gloria Simangunsong, Resti Herdiani Rahayu, Mila Apriani, Tatok Yatimantoro, Purnomo Hawati, Dwikorita Karnawati, Muhamad Sadly, and Bambang Setiyo Prayitno

Tsunami risk in Indonesia is strongly real and needs serious handling. Due to the extremely dangerous, it is important for coastal communities to be prepared and responsive in responding to threats. The recent decade tsunami disaster highlighted the extraordinary gaps and challenges on the development and strengthening of the downstream component on the system. Communities need to be educated, aware and ready to respond to warnings both natural as well as official warnings. For this reason, the Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) considers to introduce an Indonesia Tsunami Ready programme that will encourage communities to build, strengthen and develop their capacity and ability to respond to tsunami threats.

In this paper we try to analyze the community actualization on hazard assessment, preparedness, and response as the result of the Indonesian Tsunami Ready programme. The assessment is based on the 12 indicators of the tsunami ready which had been determined by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization-the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO-IOC). A field survey of the 12 indicators has been carried out to assess seven communities (Penggarangan, Pangandaran, Gelagah, Kemandang, Tambakrejo, Kuta Mandalika, and Tanjung Benoa) living in the tsunami prone area.

Generally, the results showed the communities didn’t have the updated tsunami hazard map as the hazard assessment indicator. The previous hazard map was not established based on the latest seismological study and tsunami modelling. Most of communities have an emergency operation plan for earthquake and tsunami, even though it doesn’t consider the earthquake information and tsunami warning. In some villages such as Tanjung Benoa and Kuta Mandalika, local potentials are used also to empower the preparedness and response capacity.

BMKG gave an advocacy to complete and accomplish some the unavailable indicators such as tsunami hazard map, emergency operation plan, and public education materials. The result of this study is expected to be an effective way to build a community awareness, preparedness and response.

Keywords: tsunami ready, 12 indicators of tsunami ready, hazard assessment, preparedness, response

How to cite: Anugrah, S. D., Julius, A. M., Daryono, D., Hidayanti, H., Weniza, W., Kriswinarso, T., Simangunsong, G., Rahayu, R. H., Apriani, M., Yatimantoro, T., Hawati, P., Karnawati, D., Sadly, M., and Prayitno, B. S.: A Preliminary Assessment of the Indonesian Tsunami Ready Communities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10965, 2022.

EGU22-11617 | Presentations | NH9.11

Perceptions on intolerable climate-related risks and potential limits to adaptation in Austria 

Veronica Karabaczek, Thomas Schinko, Linda Menk, and Stefan Kienberger

The focus on adaptation to climate change within policy and research has increased over the last decades. Although the adaptation of human societies to a changing environment is nothing new, the accelerated rate of anthropogenic climate change and the resulting increased frequency and intensity of natural hazards raise new questions regarding the effectiveness of adaptive measures, and whether limits to adaptation could be reached. Adaptation limits are defined by the IPCC as the point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risk through adaptive actions. They are highly context-dependent and can be financial, technical or biophysical, but are also rooted within beliefs, knowledge, or norms and values. Reaching an adaptation limit means going beyond the adaptive capacity of an actor or system. Adaptive  capacity is influenced by the awareness of policymakers and decision makers for the need to act, making it important to understand their perceptions on climate change and adaptation measures in order to identify limits to adaptation. The research project “TransLoss” aims to provide empirical policy-relevant scientific insights into climate-related risks “beyond adaptation” that may play a role in Austria now and in the future, and their influence on society and the natural environment.

We carried out semi-structured interviews (n=26) with Austrian experts from research, policy and practice to identify main sources of concern related to climate-related risks and possible factors impeding adaptation. The interviews were analysed using Qualitative Content Analysis (QCA) and coded into categories identifying the most relevant hazards and sectors which are perceived to be most impacted, as well as factors increasing vulnerability and exposure. Possible adaptation limits were divided into groups according to whether they are biophysical, technical, financial, knowledge-related, or value-related. Mentions of cooperation with other institutions and relevant projects were mapped and offer an insight into the stakeholder landscape dealing with disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Austria.

Scenarios of intolerable climate-related risks and impacts (such as loss of life) described by the interviewees are frequently related to water availability and supply. Large-scale floods from extreme precipitation or the bursting of dams, heat stress triggering impacts on protection forests and loss of agricultural production, and “chain reactions” (or systemic risks) caused by blackouts, which affect multiple sectors, may also lead to intolerable impacts. Measures which could prevent the breaching of adaptation limits and reduce losses and damages include more restrictive hazard zoning and increased cooperation between interest groups (e.g. farmers, foresters, municipalities, citizens, different levels of administration), for example through more interdisciplinary networks and consultations regarding adaptation measures. More awareness-raising for climate change among policymakers and society is needed, as well as shifting more responsibility on households for private risk reduction. This could for instance be achieved through compulsory climate-related hazard insurance, increased financial contributions when benefiting from protective measures or reduced financial support after a hazardous event.

How to cite: Karabaczek, V., Schinko, T., Menk, L., and Kienberger, S.: Perceptions on intolerable climate-related risks and potential limits to adaptation in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11617, 2022.

EGU22-11633 | Presentations | NH9.11

Forecasting shortages in staple crop production in Burkina Faso to inform early warning systems 

Rahel Laudien, Christoph Gornott, Bernhard Schauberger, and Jillian Waid

Almost half of the Burkinabe population is moderately or severely affected by food insecurity. Due to ongoing armed conflicts and the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 negatively affecting households’ income and access to markets, the number of food insecure people is expected to increase. Moreover, climate change further jeopardizes domestic food production and thus food security. Early warning systems can provide information about the expected harvest, which allows governments to adjust food imports in case of expected harvest losses or ask for external food assistance. Thus, early warning systems can contribute to increased food security.

In this session, we would like to discuss how a forecast of staple crop production can inform early warning systems of food security. Based on a statistical crop model, we provide a within-season forecast of crop production for maize, sorghum and millet in Burkina Faso. Moreover, we compare actually supplied calories with those usually consumed from staple crops, allowing us to provide early information on shortages in domestic cereal production on the national level.

Results show that despite sufficient domestic cereal production from maize, sorghum and millet on average, a considerable level of food insecurity prevails for large parts of the population. This highlights the importance of a comprehensive assessment of all dimensions of food security to rapidly develop counteractions for looming food crises.

How to cite: Laudien, R., Gornott, C., Schauberger, B., and Waid, J.: Forecasting shortages in staple crop production in Burkina Faso to inform early warning systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11633, 2022.

EGU22-12476 | Presentations | NH9.11

Community-centred Disaster Risk Reduction: Experiences from “Our Flood Mural” in Beira, Mozambique 

Fredrik Huthoff, Adele Young, Juliette Cortes Arevalo, Hugo Hagedooren, and Michelle Rudolph

Based on the notion that Flood risk communication contributes to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a novel community-centred approach called “Our Flood Mural”/“Nosso Mural de Cheias” was tested in Beira, Mozambique. “Our Flood Mural” centres around the co-creation of an interactive mural painting that highlights local experiences of past flood events, informs on the existing flood risk in the area and suggests possible risk-reducing measures. The mural brings together local knowledge and arts, and modern information technologies. “Our Flood Mural” can easily be upscaled and adapted to the local context in various settings.

A key part of “Our Flood Mural” was active engagement with the local community. Survey results and plenary community sessions were held and showed that the people of the targeted community have a broad understanding of what they can do to reduce flood risk, such as strengthening of rooftops, moving to higher ground, and freeing drainage canals from clutter. These shared experiences were incorporated in the design of the mural which was made by a local artist. Also, two interactive QR-codes were included on the mural to offer additional (online) information: one linking to local weather forecasts and giving background information on the development process of the mural. The location of the mural was mutually decided to be at a local market where it is exposed to a wide audience on a daily basis.

During the implementation of the mural, festivities were organized with local leaders present to draw attention to the purpose of the mural. Local leaders, community members, and aid organisations expressed ownership and pride as well as the desire to expand the idea to other locations and to address societal issues other than flood risk. It was also noticeable that the linkage of the mural to online information drew attention in the community, showing the mural’s potential as a means of introducing new technologies and information channels to reach a target audience.

Lessons-learned from our community-centred approach include the importance of organizing plenary sessions and carrying out local surveys to assure accurate representation of the communities’ flood risk situation, and to assure adequate use of imagery and/or text. The visibility and accessibility of the different steps in the co-creation approach can help communities, technical experts, aid organizations, and officials interact constructively and identify potential improvements in each other’s actions.

How to cite: Huthoff, F., Young, A., Cortes Arevalo, J., Hagedooren, H., and Rudolph, M.: Community-centred Disaster Risk Reduction: Experiences from “Our Flood Mural” in Beira, Mozambique, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12476, 2022.

EGU22-491 | Presentations | AS1.11

Future changes of East Asian cyclones in the CMIP5 models 

Jaeyeon Lee, Jaeyoung Hwang, Seok-Woo Son, and John Gyakum

Future changes of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over East Asia are investigated using the models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To quantify ETC frequency, intensity, and genesis changes in a warming climate, the objective tracking algorithm is applied to the CMIP5 models which provide 6-hourly wind data with no missing values in the high-terrain region. The historical simulations reasonably well capture the spatial distribution of ETC properties, except for noticeable biases in, and downstream of, the high-terrain regions. Such biases are particularly pronounced in the models with a coarse spatial resolution and a smooth topography which weakens lee cyclogenesis. The best five models, which show better performance for historical simulations than other models, are used to evaluate the possible changes of East Asian ETCs under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models project a reduced cyclogenesis in the leeward side of the Tibetan Plateau, and over East China Sea and western North Pacific in the late 21st century, resulting in a reduced ETC frequency from the east coast of China to the western North Pacific. The ETC intensity also shows a hint of weakening over the North Pacific. These ETC property changes are largely consistent with an enhanced static stability and a reduced vertical wind shear in a warming climate. This result indicates that the local baroclinicity, instead of increased moisture content, plays a critical role in determining the future changes of East Asian ETCs.

How to cite: Lee, J., Hwang, J., Son, S.-W., and Gyakum, J.: Future changes of East Asian cyclones in the CMIP5 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-491, 2022.

EGU22-2456 | Presentations | AS1.11

Why do some Recurving Tropical Cyclones Impact Europe as Post-Tropical Cyclones? 

Elliott Sainsbury, Reinhard Schiemann, Kevin Hodges, Alexander Baker, Len Shaffrey, and Kieran Bhatia

Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) are often associated with high winds and extreme precipitation over Europe. For example, ex-hurricanes Debbie (1961) and Ophelia (2017) were both responsible for national wind speed records in Ireland, and further east across Europe, ex-hurricane Debby (1982) caused significant wind damage over Finland. In previous work, we show that despite comprising only 1% of European impacting cyclones during hurricane season, almost 10% of those cyclones with storm force (>25ms-1) are PTCs, indicating that PTCs are disproportionately responsible for European windstorm risk.

By tracking and identifying observed TCs in two reanalyses, we explore the physical drivers for recurving TCs impacting Europe. Our methods of cyclone tracking and TC identification allow for a detailed analysis of the post-tropical stage of the TCs in the observational record, allowing us to separate the recurving TCs based on whether they impact Europe.

Using a composite analysis, we show that recurving TCs which impact Europe are significantly stronger at their lifetime maximum intensity, and for several days during and after extratropical transition. They are also 65% more likely to reintensify in the midlatitudes after completing extratropical transition. The Europe impacting recurving TCs interact more favourably with an upstream upper-level trough, which steers the TCs on a more poleward trajectory across a midlatitude jet streak. It is during the jet streak interaction that extratropical reintensification often occurs.

We show that TC lifetime maximum intensity and whether extratropical reintensification occurs both modulate the likelihood that a recurving TC will impact Europe as a PTC. Our results highlight the challenges of projecting PTC impacts over Europe in a future climate. Some climate model projections indicate a poleward shift in the jet, possibly indicating less opportunity for recurving TCs to interact with the jet and reintensify. However, sea surface temperatures are projected to warm, and lifetime maximum intensity may therefore increase. If the change in TC intensity outweighs any poleward shift in the jet, then a larger proportion of recurving TCs could reach Europe in the future.

How to cite: Sainsbury, E., Schiemann, R., Hodges, K., Baker, A., Shaffrey, L., and Bhatia, K.: Why do some Recurving Tropical Cyclones Impact Europe as Post-Tropical Cyclones?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2456, 2022.

Severe winter storms are one of the most damaging natural hazards for European residential buildings. Previous studies mainly focused on the loss ratio (loss value/total insured sum) as a monetary value for damages (e.g. Prahl et al. 2012; Pardowitz et al. 2016). In this study the focus is on the claim ratio (number of insured claims/number of contracts), which is derived from a storm loss dataset provided by the German Insurance Association. In a first step, loss ratios and claim ratios in German administrative districts are compared to investigate differences and similarities between the two variables. While there is no significant change in the ratio between claim ratio and loss ratio with increasing wind speeds, a tendency for lower loss ratios in urban areas can be confirmed. In a second step, a generalized linear model for daily claim ratios is developed using daily maximum wind gust (ERA5) and different non-meteorological indicators for vulnerability and exposure as predictor variables. The non-meteorological predictors are derived from the Census 2011. They include information about the district-average construction years, the number of apartments per buildings and others to get a better understanding of these factors concerning the number of buildings affected by windstorms. The modeling procedure is divided into two steps. First, a logistic regression model is used to model the probabilty of storm damage occurence. Second, generalized linear models with different link functions are compared regarding their ability to predict claim ratios in case a storm damage occured. In a cross-validation setting a criteria for model selection is implemented and the models of both steps are verified. Both steps show an improvement over the climatological forecast.

How to cite: Trojand, A., Becker, N., and Rust, H.: Impacts of winter storms on residential building damage - Modeling claim ratio considering parameters of vulnerability and exposure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2599, 2022.

EGU22-2626 | Presentations | AS1.11

The downward transport of strong winds by convective rolls in a Large Eddy Simulation of Mediterranean cyclone Adrian 

Wahiba Lfarh, Florian Pantillon, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau

Windstorms associated with extratropical cyclones belong to the most destructive natural disasters in the mid-latitudes, potentially causing tens of fatalities and hundreds of millions euros in damages yearly. The impact of windstorms is caused by gusts mainly, which arise from the downward transport of strong winds to the surface. The processes leading to the transport of wind gusts are still poorly understood, because they cannot be studied directly due to their short duration and local extent that are too small scale for both observing networks and numerical weather prediction systems.

The opportunity to address this issue arose when the windstorm Adrian (also known as Vaia) occurred over the north-western Mediterranean on 29 October 2018. Although cyclones are usually less intense over the Mediterranean than over the Atlantic, gusts exceeding 180km/h causing several material damages were recorded in Corsica and make Adrian an ideal case study to analyze the transport of strong winds in numerical simulations.

First, we perform a mesoscale analysis of windstorm Adrian, based on simulations on a 1 km grid with Meso-NH. Even at short range <12h, simulations exhibit high sensitivity to the initial conditions and can delay the cyclone by several hours. In a reference simulation, we show that the strongest surface winds occur below the occluded front, and they are due to the cold conveyor-belt (CCB). From the reference simulation, a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) with a horizontal resolution of 200m is performed over a large domain to capture both the mesoscale dynamics and the fine scale characteristics.

Focusing on the LES, we identify two types of strong wind structures: local cells and elongated structures with surface wind speed > 40m/s and duration < 10min. In the strong wind region, boundary layer convection is organised in rolls oriented along the wind direction, with vertical extension and spacing < 1km. It is found only in the convective and unstable boundary layer characterised by moderate surface sensible heat fluxes and vertical wind shear. This suggests that convective rolls are responsible for transporting strong winds to the surface. To ensure that, passive tracers initiated in the CCB region are computed to illustrate the way strong winds are transferred downward. Subsequently, a detailed study of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface is carried out to evaluate their role in the transport of winds in the atmospheric boundary layer. It shows the influence of the various processes considered in the parameterisations of surface fluxes on the presence and intensification of the convective rolls.

The results show, using the LES, that the downward transport of strong winds in the cold conveyor-belt of Adrian is caused by small-scale convective rolls.

How to cite: Lfarh, W., Pantillon, F., and Chaboureau, J.-P.: The downward transport of strong winds by convective rolls in a Large Eddy Simulation of Mediterranean cyclone Adrian, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2626, 2022.

EGU22-3589 | Presentations | AS1.11

WCB characteristics and impacts and how they are interrelated in ERA5 

Katharina Heitmann, Hanin Binder, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos

The warm conveyor belt (WCB) transports moist air from low levels in the warm sector of an extra-tropical cyclone (ETC) as a coherently ascending airstream to the upper troposphere. WCBs are associated with an elongated cloud band and precipitation and were found to be responsible for 40-60% of the total precipitation in the midlatitude. Furthermore, the release of latent heat during cloud formation has the potential to modify potential vorticity (PV) below and above the level of maximum heating. Due to the modification of PV, WCBs can affect the synoptic-scale flow, e.g., by disturbing the jet stream on triggering Rossby waves in the upper troposphere, as well as the intensification of ETCs.

While the occurrence of WCBs has been studied from a climatological viewpoint before, the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of WCB characteristics and impacts, as well as the link between them, remain largely unknown. Therefore, we developed a novel method to quantify a set of WCB metrics that describe its characteristics (intensity, ascent rate, curvature, moisture content, position, and age relative to the cyclone evolution) and impacts (PV modification at low and upper levels, precipitation rate and volume). In addition, we considered the metric evolution along the whole lifecycle of the WCB. Applying this method in a case study, the WCB reached maximum intensity and ascent rate during the cyclone’s strongest intensification. In terms of impacts, maximum precipitation rates decreased over the lifetime of the WCB, while maximum PV values at lower levels increased. We then extended the analysis to the 40-year time span 1980 - 2020 covered by ECMWF’s most recent reanalysis ERA5, by calculating WCB trajectories globally for the entire period. Thereby, we were able to identify from a climatological viewpoint for the first time: (i) the global spatial distribution of WCB characteristics and impacts; (ii) the link between them; and (iii) their distinct lifecycle. This analysis showed that the characteristics and impacts of WCBs differ between different regions and seasons while the link between them remains largely constant. For instance, in the North Atlantic, we found two regions of enhanced WCB intensity which are also linked with enhanced precipitation volume. While the precipitation volume correlates strongly with the WCB intensity, the highest precipitation rates are associated with the most rapidly ascending WCBs. On a global scale, WCB-related low-level PV depends mainly on latitude, however, if restricted to a latitudinal band, inflow moisture becomes important.

How to cite: Heitmann, K., Binder, H., Sprenger, M., Wernli, H., and Joos, H.: WCB characteristics and impacts and how they are interrelated in ERA5, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3589, 2022.

EGU22-3980 | Presentations | AS1.11

Behaviors of synoptic eddies around the Tibetan Plateau 

Qiaoling Ren, Reinhard Schiemann, Kevin I. Hodges, Xingwen Jiang, and Song Yang

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), as the highest and largest obstacle embedded in the westerly jet stream, can influence the development of synoptic eddies that are steered by the westerly jet stream. Since the synoptic eddies can significantly affect weather and climate over the plateau and further downstream, this study explores their behaviors at different altitudes (850, 500, and 250 hPa) around the TP using an objective feature tracking algorithm and 41-years of hourly data from the ERA5. All synoptic eddies that occur over the TP region (25-45°N, 60-110°E) for at least a part of their lifecycle are considered in this study.

Analysis shows that these eddies mainly enter the TP region from the western and northern boundaries or form locally. Regardless of altitude, more than half of the eddies coming from outside die out when they encounter the TP, suggesting a suppression effect of the TP on external eddies. About one in ten eddies will turn north and fewer turn south. Eddies do not generally directly pass the TP region from west to east, except for a few cases at the upper level (250 hPa). Additionally, some 500-hPa and 250-hPa eddies can reach East Asia travelling around the TP on its northern side, which tends to happen in transitional seasons, and few winter eddies can pass through on the southern side. The number of synoptic eddies moving in from outside increases with altitude, while the number of locally generated eddies is largest at the 500-hPa level, which is the surface height of the TP. These eddies tend to occur over the central and southeastern parts of the TP, indicating the orographic perturbation effect of the TP. Nearly half of the locally generated eddies die out over the TP region, and more than a third move to East Asia. These results pave the way for future dynamical investigation of the interactions between the TP and the synoptic eddies, and of the impacts associated with the different categories of eddies.

How to cite: Ren, Q., Schiemann, R., Hodges, K. I., Jiang, X., and Yang, S.: Behaviors of synoptic eddies around the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3980, 2022.

EGU22-3998 | Presentations | AS1.11

Where, when and why do extratropical cyclones cluster? 

Helen Dacre and Joaquim Pinto

The weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are largely determined by the absence or presence of extratropical cyclones. Frequent passage of cyclones over the same location in quick succession (serial clustering) can lead to accumulated impacts such as flooding and wind damage. These impacts have motivated a wide variety of research studies into serial cyclone clustering.  However, the different definitions, metrics and datasets used in this research makes comparison of results difficult.  The aim of this study is to review the previous research and provide clear a framework for serial cyclone clustering into which past and future studies can be placed, allowing easier comparison of results irrespective of the research direction.

 

We find that several climatologies of serial cyclone clustering agree as to where clustering occurs preferentially, but these studies are largely limited to the North Atlantic. Future projections of cyclone clustering are highly uncertain.  This is largely due to sample uncertainty, caused by short timeseries, and poor representation of key processes such as Rossby wave breaking, caused by low spatial resolution. Research investigating the dynamical mechanisms determining when and why serial cyclone clustering occurs have shown that clustering is linked to the position of the jet stream and the occurrence of Rossby wave breaking.  Studies have investigated this link for different aggregation timescales. On daily timescales cyclone clustering is related to jet streaks and families of cyclones forming on the same frontal feature. On seasonal timescales active seasons are often associate with persistent large-scale flow patterns and successive Rossby wave breaking events. Current knowledge gaps and future research directions are identified.

How to cite: Dacre, H. and Pinto, J.: Where, when and why do extratropical cyclones cluster?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3998, 2022.

EGU22-4144 | Presentations | AS1.11

Cloud radiative impact on the dynamics and predictability of an idealized extratropical cyclone 

Behrooz Keshtgar, Aiko Voigt, Corinna Hoose, Michael Riemer, and Bernhard Mayer

Extratropical cyclones drive midlatitude weather, including extreme events, and determine midlatitude climate. Their dynamics and predictability are strongly shaped by cloud diabatic processes. While the cloud impact due to latent heating is well known and much studied, little is known about the impact of cloud radiative heating (CRH) on the dynamics and predictability of extratropical cyclones. Here, we address this question by means of baroclinic life cycle simulations performed at a convection-permitting resolution of 2.5 km with the ICON model. The simulations use a newly implemented channel setup with periodic boundary conditions in the zonal direction. Moreover, they apply a new modeling technique for which only CRH interacts with the cyclone, which circumvents changes in the mean state due to clear-sky radiative cooling. To understand the CRH impact on the upper-tropospheric circulation, we diagnose sources and the evolution of differences in potential vorticity (PV) between a simulation with and without CRH.

We find that CRH increases the intensity of the cyclone with the impact being more prominent at upper levels. The mechanism by which CRH affects the cyclone operates mostly via a modification of other diabatic processes, in particular an intensification of the latent heating associated with cloud microphysical processes. This changes PV tendencies, and these changes are then advected by the upper-tropospheric divergent flow to the tropopause region, where the large-scale rotational flow further changes the tropopause structure.

Our results indicate that although CRH is comparably small in magnitude, it can affect extratropical cyclones by changing cloud microphysical heating and subsequently the large-scale flow similar to a previously identified multi-stage upscale error growth mechanism. Our results further indicate that CRH can impact the predictability of the cyclones. This impact may be especially important in storm-resolving models, for which simplified radiative transfer calculations might bias CRH. 

How to cite: Keshtgar, B., Voigt, A., Hoose, C., Riemer, M., and Mayer, B.: Cloud radiative impact on the dynamics and predictability of an idealized extratropical cyclone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4144, 2022.

EGU22-4479 | Presentations | AS1.11

Extratropical high-wind feature identification using a probabilistic random forest 

Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Peter Knippertz, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Strong winds associated with extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in Europe. These high winds are mostly connected with four mesoscale dynamical features: the warm (conveyor belt) jet (WJ), the cold (conveyor belt) jet (CJ), (post) cold-frontal convective features (CFC) and the sting jet (SJ). While all four have high wind gust speeds in common, the timing, location and some further characteristics typically differ and hence likely also the forecast errors occurring in association with them.

Here we present an objective identification approach for the four features listed above, based on a probabilistic random forest using each feature’s most important characteristics in wind, rainfall, pressure and temperature evolution. The main motivations for this are to generate a climatology for Central Europe, to analyse forecast errors specific to individual features, and to ultimately improve forecasts of high wind events through feature-dependent statistical post-processing. To achieve this, we strive to identify the features in irregularly spaced surface observations and in gridded analyses and forecasts in a consistent way.

To train the probabilistic random forest, we subjectively identify the four storm features – as well as high cold sector winds – in ten winterstorm cases between 2017 and 2020 in both hourly surface observations and high-resolution reanalyses of the German COSMO model over Europe, using an interactive data analysis and visualisation tool. Results show that mean sea-level pressure (tendency), potential temperature, precipitation amount and wind direction are most important for the distinction between the features. From the random forest we get probabilities of each feature occurring at the single stations, which can be interpolated into areal information using kriging. While the observational data are limited to surface measurements, the gridded data includes further useful parameters and the possibility to consider vertical structures.

The results show a good identification of CJ, CFC and WJ, while a distinction between SJ and CJ is difficult using surface observations alone, such that the two features are considered together at this stage. A climatology is currently being compiled for both surface observations and the reanalyses over a period of around 20 years using the respective trained probabilistic random forests and further for high-resolution COSMO ensemble forecasts, for which we want to analyse forecast errors and develop feature-dependent postprocessing procedures.

How to cite: Eisenstein, L., Schulz, B., Knippertz, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Extratropical high-wind feature identification using a probabilistic random forest, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4479, 2022.

EGU22-5231 | Presentations | AS1.11

The role of baroclinic activity in shaping Earth's albedo in present and future climates 

Or Hadas, Joaquin Blanco, George Datseris, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, Rodrigo Caballero, and Yohai Kaspi
Atmospheric albedo is one of the most influential properties of Earth's climate. Specifically, the midlatitude planetary albedo plays a vital role in shaping the Earth's albedo. Although, there is no one theory to connect midlatitude atmospheric albedo to the midlatitude climate. This study investigates the connection between baroclinic activity, which dominates the midlatitude climate, and cloud cover. We show that EKE and atmospheric albedo are highly correlated on the climatological level. Then, we show that, from a Lagrangian perspective, the positive correlation translates into a high correlation between cyclone and anticyclone strength and cloud cover at all levels. Observing the strength-cloud cover relation across various systems strengths, we see that this coupling is robust and saturates for intense cyclones. Using these insights, we reflect on two aspects of the Earth radiation budget: the Earth hemispheric symmetry in planetary albedo and future changes in Earth atmospheric albedo. Observing the relationship between the storms, mean cloudiness, strength, and spatial distribution, we find that the difference in eddy population between hemispheres can explain the difference in cloud-cover, which counter-balance the higher surface albedo at the NH. Finally, we use the relation between baroclinic activity and midlatitude cloudiness to understand the projected change in cloud patterns in a warmer climate. We show a high correlation between climatological baroclinic activity response and cloud response. We also suggest that the discrepancy between baroclinic activity and clouds response over the SH is due to the saturating nature of the strength-cloudiness curve.

How to cite: Hadas, O., Blanco, J., Datseris, G., Bony, S., Stevens, B., Caballero, R., and Kaspi, Y.: The role of baroclinic activity in shaping Earth's albedo in present and future climates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5231, 2022.

EGU22-5305 | Presentations | AS1.11

Midlatitude cyclone features associated with extreme winds and gusts in the seas surrounding the UK 

Emanuele Gentile and Suzanne L. Gray

Located near the end of the North Atlantic storm track, the UK’s surrounding seas are characterised by a highly variable wind climate, making prediction of wind speeds challenging at all time scales. While wind speed trends over the UK’s land and seas have been the focus of several studies of the literature in the past 20 years, the question of what is the current systematic link between observed extreme wind speeds (and gusts) over these seas and distinct sub-synoptic features of midlatitude cyclones is, to date, unanswered.  To address this question, we have performed a 10-year climatological analysis of the observed extreme wind speeds and gusts, presenting the distribution of extremes and the prevailing wind direction, along with an analysis of their inter- and intra-annual variability. We find that between the 70 and 85% of the observed top 1% extreme wind and gust events recorded at each network site are within 1000 km of the centre of a cyclone (tracked in the ERA5 reanalysis), and that an even higher proportion of the top 0.1% of the wind and gust events is associated with a cyclone centre (between 80 and 100% depending on the site).  We then determine at each site whether the warm or cold conveyor belt flows are more likely to lead to extreme wind or gust events. Combining the observed extreme winds and gusts data with reanalysis significant wave heights, we further discuss the relationship between extreme winds and extreme ocean wave heights, and consider the relevance of the results to the safety and the smooth running of the operations of the wind energy and oil and gas industries in the UK’s surrounding seas. 

How to cite: Gentile, E. and Gray, S. L.: Midlatitude cyclone features associated with extreme winds and gusts in the seas surrounding the UK, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5305, 2022.

EGU22-5426 | Presentations | AS1.11

Extreme cold events: global climatology and relation to cyclones 

Noy Klaider and Shira Raveh-Rubin

Extreme cold weather events cause major damage to industry, agriculture and human health. While regional extremes are often associated with different large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, it is yet unclear which mechanisms and weather systems are relevant on a global scale, i.e., across regions. This study aims to identify the large-scale processes leading to extreme cold events from a global climatological perspective, and specifically quantify the non-local contribution of midlatitude weather systems using a Lagrangian approach. 

Here, we objectively identify anomalously cold extremes by applying local percentile-based thresholds of 2-m temperature in ERA5 reanalysis. We further track air parcel trajectories of dry, cold intrusions occurring in the wake of extratropical troughs and cyclones, previously shown to induce cold anomalies following cold frontal passages. We find a strong association between cold extremes and dry intrusions, reaching 45% of cold extremes in the midlatitudes, despite the intrusions’ natural occurrence frequency of only 12% in those areas. Using clustering methods, additional atmospheric precursors to cyclones producing cold extremes are highlighted. The identification of mechanisms governing the predictability of cold extremes, on a global scale, is key for societal preparedness.  

 

How to cite: Klaider, N. and Raveh-Rubin, S.: Extreme cold events: global climatology and relation to cyclones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5426, 2022.

Extratropical cyclones are the main driver of everyday weather in the midlatitudes. These cyclones are known to be affected by latent heating and are a popular subject of research regarding possible changes in a warming climate. In contrast, the role of radiation - and especially the radiative impact of clouds - in shaping extratropical cyclones has hardly been investigated. To study how cloud-radiative heating of the atmosphere might impact cyclones, we present idealized baroclinic life cycle simulations with the global atmosphere model ICON-NWP in aquaplanet setup with prescribed sea surface temperatures. Several simulation setups are used to isolate not only the overall cloud-radiative impact but also the impacts of low-level clouds and high-level clouds. Moreover, the cloud-radiative impact is compared between two model versions, ICON 2.1 and ICON 2.6. While the model versions simulate similar cyclones when radiation is not taken into account, enabling cloud-radiation interaction leads to contradicting effects.In ICON 2.1 clouds lead to a weakening of the cyclone magnitude by 15%, whereas in ICON 2.6 they strengthen the cyclone by 7%. The different cloud impact results from a robust competition between the radiative impact of low-level clouds, which in both model versions weaken the cyclone, and high-level clouds, which in both model versions strengthen the cyclone. The difference in the overall cloud-radiative impact between the two model versions results from the fact that ICON 2.1 simulates much more low-level clouds than ICON 2.6. This shows that the vertical distribution of clouds and their radiative heating can be an important factor for the dynamics of extratropical cyclones. 

How to cite: Voigt, A., Butz, K., and Keshtgar, B.: Competing radiative impacts of low-level and high-level clouds on the strength of an idealized extratropical cyclone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5585, 2022.

EGU22-5592 | Presentations | AS1.11

Frontal Life Cycles – Detection and Climatology 

Johannes Lutzmann, Clemens Spensberger, and Thomas Spengler

The release of latent heat on the warm side of trailing cold fronts can leave elevated levels of baroclinicity. This can lead to one or multiple secondary cyclones forming in the wake of the parent cyclone, intensifying moisture advection and latent heating. Although this mechanism has been demonstrated in case studies, we still lack a consistent global mapping of the evolution of fronts and associated diabatic processes. We develop a novel algorithm to both detect fronts in global weather and climate datasets and track them in time. We utilise a watershed algorithm to identify individual fronts as volumes in the four-dimensional domain of space and time. We apply this algorithm to equivalent potential-temperature fields from the ERA5 reanalysis on three pressure levels in the lower to middle troposphere to compile a global climatology of frontal lifecycles. We then categorise these lifecycles with respect to their characteristics as well as dynamic and thermodynamic properties. Furthermore, the intensification mechanisms are explored, in particular with respect to latent heating.

How to cite: Lutzmann, J., Spensberger, C., and Spengler, T.: Frontal Life Cycles – Detection and Climatology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5592, 2022.

EGU22-5816 | Presentations | AS1.11

The role of surface heat fluxes on development of warm seclusion favouring subtropical cyclone Raoni transition over the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean 

Michelle Reboita, Rosmeri da Rocha, Natália Crespo, Luiz Gozzo, Maria Custódio, Vinicius Lucyrio, and Eduardo de Jesus

In June 2021, an unusual cyclone developed near the boundary of Uruguay and southern Brazil. It initially had extratropical characteristics, later acquired features of a Shapiro-Keyser extratropical cyclone and then underwent a subtropical transition. When the subtropical system reached Brazilian water (1200 UTC 29 June 2021), the local Navy named the cyclone “Raoni”. The aim of this study is to describe the main drivers that made the cyclone develop features of a Shapiro-Keyser extratropical cyclone. Cyclogenesis was registered at 1800 UTC 26 June, forced by a trough at mid-upper levels that crossed the Andes and caused surface pressure deepening. Less than 24-hours later, the cyclone evolved following the Shapiro-Keyser development model, presenting a frontal T-bone pattern and warm seclusion. Sensitivity numerical experiments carried out with two regional models (Regional Climate Model - RegCM and Weather Research Forecasting Model - WRF) driven by ERA5 reanalysis indicate that the suppression of the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes produces a weaker extratropical cyclone without warm seclusion. Hence, surface heat fluxes seem to be the main driver to the warm seclusion development.

How to cite: Reboita, M., da Rocha, R., Crespo, N., Gozzo, L., Custódio, M., Lucyrio, V., and de Jesus, E.: The role of surface heat fluxes on development of warm seclusion favouring subtropical cyclone Raoni transition over the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5816, 2022.

EGU22-5904 | Presentations | AS1.11

Wet – wetter – weather: Attributing Global Precipitation to weather features 

Kjersti Konstali, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clemens Spensberger, Chris Weijenborg, Johannes Lutzmann, and Thomas Spengler

Precipitation has increased globally in the mean during the past century and is expected to continue to increase with rising temperatures. In the mid- to high latitudes, extratropical cyclones, fronts, atmospheric rivers, and cold air outbreaks are associated with a substantial fraction of the total precipitation. As these weather features might respond differently to a changing climate, investigating precipitation changes in the context of weather systems provides further insight into the observed changes in precipitation. Therefore, we introduce a new method for attributing precipitation to weather features. The method allows us to decompose total precipitation into the respective contributions by extratropical cyclones, fronts, atmospheric rivers, cold air outbreaks, and their combinations.

We have classified precipitation between 1930-2010 in the ECMWF’s twentieth century reanalyses project, ERA-20C. Our method assigns 70% of the total precipitation poleward of 30° to the aforementioned categories, allowing us to assess the relative importance of these weather features for total precipitation and for precipitation extremes. We find that the combination of extratropical cyclones, fronts, and atmospheric rivers accounts for more than 50% of the total precipitation and for 90% of the extreme events in the northern hemisphere storm-track regions, despite these precipitation events occurring less than 20% of the time.

How to cite: Konstali, K., Sorteberg, A., Spensberger, C., Weijenborg, C., Lutzmann, J., and Spengler, T.: Wet – wetter – weather: Attributing Global Precipitation to weather features, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5904, 2022.

EGU22-6508 | Presentations | AS1.11

Global climatalogy of cyclone clustering 

Chris Weijenborg and Thomas Spengler

Cyclone clustering, the succession of multiple extratropical cyclones during a short period of time, has a huge impact on European weather extremes. The idea that several cyclones follow a similar track already dates back to the concept of cyclone families of Bjerknes and Solberg. To investigate the dynamical causes of cyclone clustering, one needs to diagnose where cyclone clustering occurs and determine their characteristics. So far most diagnostics either focused on either local impact-based diagnostics or on a statistical analysis of storm recurrence. While the first cannot be applied globally, the latter is difficult to relate to individual events. We therefore present a new way to globally detect cyclone clustering that is closer to the original concept of Bjerknes and Solberg that extratropical cyclones follow similar tracks.

Using this new cyclone clustering diagnostic based on spatio-temporal distance between cyclone tracks, we analyse cyclone clustering globally in Era-Interim for the period 1979 until 2016. We complement this analysis with a baroclinicity diagnostic based on the slope of isentropic surfaces. With the isentropic slope and its tendencies, the relative role of diabatic and adiabatic effects associated with extra-tropical cyclones in maintaining baroclinicity are assessed. We find that cyclone clustering mainly occurs along the climatological storm tracks. In general, clustered cyclones are stronger than non-clustered cyclones. Moreover clustered cyclones are more often related to atmospheric rivers and stronger isentropic slope, indicating that diabatic effects might be an important mechanism in the formation of cyclone clustering. 

How to cite: Weijenborg, C. and Spengler, T.: Global climatalogy of cyclone clustering, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6508, 2022.

EGU22-6949 | Presentations | AS1.11

Skillful Decadal Prediction of German Bight Storm Activity 

Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr

Can a decadal prediction system be used to generate skillful forecasts of small-scale climate extremes? For large-ensemble probabilistic predictions of German Bight storm activity (GBSA), the answer is yes. In this study, we show that the prediction skill of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcast system for GBSA is higher than the skill of persistence-based forecasts. We define GBSA every year via the most extreme three-hourly geostrophic wind speeds, which are derived from mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data. Our 64-member ensemble of yearly decadal hindcast simulations spans the time period 1960-2018. For this period, we compare deterministically and probabilistically predicted MSLP anomalies and GBSA with a lead time of up to ten years against observations. The model shows limited deterministic skill for single forecast years, but significant positive skill for long averaging periods. For probabilistic predictions of high and low storm activity, the model is skillful over the entire forecast period, and outperforms persistence-based forecasts. For short lead years, the skill of the probabilistic prediction for high and low activity notably exceeds the deterministic skill.

How to cite: Krieger, D., Brune, S., Pieper, P., Weisse, R., and Baehr, J.: Skillful Decadal Prediction of German Bight Storm Activity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6949, 2022.

Seasonal forecasts of extratropical storms are of interest to the scientific community as well as insurers, government contingency planners and the general public.

In previous studies, seasonal forecasts of winter windstorm events over Europe from the Met Office GloSea5 model have shown significant skill especially over north-west Europe for windstorm frequency and were connected to large-scale patterns, i.e., the NAO. Recent investigations show links between windstorm intensities and the three dominant large-scale patterns over Europe (NAO, SCA and EA) which explain up to 80% of interannual windstorm variability.

This new investigation quantifies the role of additional, dynamical forcing factors that could influence windstorm predictions. The factor selection is based on known dynamical influences on cyclone development and is thus related to the existence to severe windstorms.  We analyse the Eady-Growth-Rate (EGR), 200hPa jet speed and location, a proxy for Rossby wave source (RWS), and one factor related to tropical precipitation. The seasonal forecast skill of the factors themselves shows positive and significant skill in regions they are expected to be most influential or dominant, like for the RWS around its dipole over the south-west of the North Atlantic or for the EGR east of North America.

The links between these dynamical forcing factors to windstorm impact-relevant regions in the model and reanalysis data will be presented and the explanatory power of these factors for the overall model skill is discussed.

How to cite: Degenhardt, L., Scaife, A., and Leckebusch, G.: Dynamical forcing factors of severe windstorms: their seasonal forecast skill and influence on seasonal windstorm predictions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7979, 2022.

EGU22-8358 | Presentations | AS1.11

Unprecedented stormy seasons and their associated precipitation and wind extremes over Europe 

Laura Owen, Jennifer Catto, David Stephenson, and Nick Dunstone

Extratropical cyclones and their associated extreme precipitation and winds can have a severe impact on society. These extremes can cause even greater risk when they occur at the same place and time. Studies have investigated stormy seasons and their associated precipitation and wind extremes using observational data. Although these results are limited when looking at the risk of very extreme events, since a large number of samples is needed to get robust estimates. Additionally, it is very difficult for estimates based on observations alone to help us understand the risk of future rare or unprecedented stormy seasons and associated events. Using the UNSEEN method (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) this risk can be estimated from large ensembles of climate simulations. The Met Office's Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) model ensembles are evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis data to find out how well they represent storm tracks along with their associated precipitation, wind and compound extremes over Europe. This model has not been evaluated in such a way before and this is needed before the model can be used to estimate the likelihood of unprecedented stormy seasons and associated extremes using the UNSEEN method. We find that although GloSea5 underestimates the numbers of storms over Europe, particularly over the Mediterranean, seasons are found with larger numbers of storms than seen historically. Cyclone composites of precipitation, wind and compound extremes are also compared between ERA5 and GloSea5 ensembles. GloSea5 estimates the spatial pattern and frequency of wind, precipitation and compound extremes around cyclones averaged over their whole lifecycle well. The spatial pattern of extremes around cyclones at maximum intensity is also estimated well but the frequency is underestimated. Given this GloSea5 can be used to investigate the spatial pattern of larger extremes as well as extremes from the most intense storms.

How to cite: Owen, L., Catto, J., Stephenson, D., and Dunstone, N.: Unprecedented stormy seasons and their associated precipitation and wind extremes over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8358, 2022.

EGU22-9324 | Presentations | AS1.11

Control of North Atlantic cyclone variability and impacts by the large-scale atmospheric flow 

Camille Li, Erica Madonna, Gabriel Hes, Clio Michel, and Peter Y.F. Siew

Extratropical cyclones are key players in the poleward transport of moisture and heat. This study investigates wintertime cyclone variability to better understand the large-scale controls on their frequency, path and impacts at higher latitudes. One of the main corridors for Arctic-bound cyclones is through the North Atlantic to the Barents Sea, a region that has experienced the greatest retreat of winter sea ice during the past decades. Large-scale atmospheric conditions are found to be decisive, with the strongest surface warming from cyclones originating south of 60N in the North Atlantic and steered northeastward by the upper-level flow. Atmospheric conditions also control cyclone variability in the Arctic proper: months with many cyclones are characterized by an absence of high-latitude blocking and enhanced local baroclinicity, due to the presence of strong upper-level winds and a southwest-northeast tilted jet stream more than changes in sea ice. Due to the large interannual variability in the number of Arctic-bound cyclones, no robust trends are observed over the last 40 years. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for internal variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in studies of long-term changes in extratropical cyclones.

How to cite: Li, C., Madonna, E., Hes, G., Michel, C., and Siew, P. Y. F.: Control of North Atlantic cyclone variability and impacts by the large-scale atmospheric flow, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9324, 2022.

EGU22-11515 | Presentations | AS1.11

On the influence of Ocean Mixed Layer and Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in the genesis and evolution of the Mediterranean Tropical-Like cyclones “IANOS”. 

Antonio Ricchi, Giovanni Liguori, Leone Cavicchia, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, and Rossella Ferretti

Over the Mediterranean basin we can occasionally observe intense cyclones showing tropical characteristics and known as Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLC) or Medicanes (short for “Mediterranean Hurricanes”). Previous studies focusing on past TLCs events have found that SST anomalies play a fundamental role in modulating the intense air-sea exchange of latent and sensible heat fluxes, hence controlling both development and evolution of TLCs. However, given the connection between ocean mixed layer, ocean heat content and temperature, it is important to explore also the role of the mixed layer depth (MLD). In this study we investigated the role of both SST and MLD on genesis and evolution of a recent record-breaking TLC. Specifically, we focus on TCL “IANOS”, a cyclone that originated over the southern Ionian Sea around 14 Sept 2020, moved over the Central Ionian Sea from south-west to North-East, and made landfall around 19 Sept 2020 over Greece mainland coast. It developed over a basin where a positive SST anomaly up to 4 °C was detected, which coincided with the sea area where it reached the maximum intensity. We conducted a series of experiments using an atmospheric model (WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting system) driven by underlying SST (standalone configuration) with daily update or coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model (SLAB ocean), with SST calculated at every time step using the SLAB ocean for a given value of the MLD. WRF was implemented with 3 km grid spacing, forced with GFS-GDAL analysis (0.25°x0.25° horizontal resolution), while SST or MLD initialization, for standalone or coupled runs, respectively, are provided by the MFS-CMEMs Copernicus dataset at 4 km of horizontal resolution. For the studied TLC, the mean MLD is modified by increasing or decreasing its depth by 10 m, 30 m, 50 m; the preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. At first  the MLD thickness was characterized  for the days in which the cyclone developed using ocean modeling data. Then we identified possible past and future climatological scenarios of MLD thickness. Starting from these data, we simulated the impact of the MLD, and consequently of the Ocean Heat Content, on the TLC. The preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. The results deserve further investigation in particular in the context of climate change scenarios.

How to cite: Ricchi, A., Liguori, G., Cavicchia, L., Miglietta, M. M., Bonaldo, D., Carniel, S., and Ferretti, R.: On the influence of Ocean Mixed Layer and Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in the genesis and evolution of the Mediterranean Tropical-Like cyclones “IANOS”., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11515, 2022.

EGU22-11763 | Presentations | AS1.11

On the statistical analysis of explosive-cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean Sea using ERA5 dataset 

Cosimo Enrico Carniel, Rossella Ferretti, Antonio Ricchi, and Dino Zardi

The Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed, fairly temperate, mid-latitude marine basin, strongly influenced by the North-Atlantic atmospheric circulations. A wide variety of cyclogenesis mechanisms are known to develop within this basin, including baroclinic waves coming from the Atlantic, Mediterranean cyclogenesis originating from the cut-off of baroclinic waves, Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLC) and explosive-cyclogenesis (EC). Depending on the cyclone type, the frequency of appearance can vary, ranging from tens per month to 1.5 per year, as in the TLC case. ECs are among the rarest and probably most intense and destructive cyclogenesis events that can develop within the Mediterranean basin; they usually originate at high latitudes, during wintertime, and mainly over the sea, preferring areas with high Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients. These events are determined by 12 different parameters, among which the main one is the quick drop of pressure, close to 1hPa/hr for 24 hours, within the eye of the cyclone. ECs formation is an extremely complicated process, and in the Mediterranean basin it is probably driven by air intrusions from the stratosphere and by the presence of Atmospheric Rivers. Starting from the analysis of the EC event called “Vaia Storm”, occurred in the Central Mediterranean Basin on October 29th 2018, and using ERA5 dataset, we firstly conducted a physical and dynamical analysis of the event, by pointing out some recurring characteristics previously highlighted in other works, on both local and synoptic scale. Secondly, we analyzed the results given by the reanalysis model ERA5 regarding the period January 1st 1950 – January 1st 2020, identifying other cyclogeneses with the same features, such as the event on November 4th 1966. On the basis of these information, the return period of the EC events was defined, as well as its statistical distribution and seasonality and correlation with NAO and EA indexes (both strongly negative). Further analysis are currently undertaken to determine correlations with SCAND index and possible SST anomalies in the Central Mediterranean Basin.

How to cite: Carniel, C. E., Ferretti, R., Ricchi, A., and Zardi, D.: On the statistical analysis of explosive-cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean Sea using ERA5 dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11763, 2022.

EGU22-12373 | Presentations | AS1.11

The response of extreme extratropical cyclone wind fields to climate change 

Matthew Priestley and Jennifer Catto

How extratropical cyclones will respond to changes in future climate forcing is often uncertain. Changes in the overall number of cyclones and precipitation rates is well understood, however, there is less consensus on how the frequency of extreme cyclones and the near-surface winds will respond to a warmer climate. Using an ensemble of models from CMIP6 across a range of climate scenarios we aim to reduce the previous uncertainty and have investigated how extreme cyclones will change using a composite analysis method across a variety of intensity metrics.

 

We find an increase in the frequency of extreme cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter, with the reverse being found in the summer. For the cyclone winds in the lower troposphere we examine both the maximum wind speed and the area of wind speeds above a high intensity threshold. Results show that despite there being little change in the maximum wind speed by the end of the century, the portion of the cyclone with wind speeds above a high intensity threshold may be at least 15% higher in the NH winter. This increase is partly driven by changes in the cyclone propagation speed, although dynamical changes within the cyclones leads to further increases in wind speeds for extreme cyclones compared to those of average intensity. These results have significant implications for risk modellers and the loss potential of high impact wind storms.

How to cite: Priestley, M. and Catto, J.: The response of extreme extratropical cyclone wind fields to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12373, 2022.

Due to the combined effect of human-driven depletion and anthropogenic climate change, groundwater storage is decreasing across the globe. This trend will potentially have an adverse impact on future human socio-economic development, by increasing the frequency and duration of both hydrological and socio-economic droughts as well as generating inter-sectoral competition for limited water resources.

Large-scale modelling studies on changes in groundwater availability can be separated into two big families. First, hydrological impact models actively consider water usage across sectors but ignore land-atmosphere interactions by design. Second, Earth System Models consider two-way interactions between climate and groundwater resources, but almost never consider the anthropogenic water resource depletion, except in some cases for irrigation.

The goal of this study is to connect the expertise of these two families by implementing domestic and industrial water usage in the Community Earth System Model version 2. Using land-atmosphere coupled simulations, we will revisit previously computed trends in future groundwater availability by simultaneously accounting for climate change and anthropogenic water resource usage.

How to cite: Taranu, I. S. and Thiery, W.: Implementing sectoral water usage in the Community Earth System Model for projecting future water resource availability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-596, 2022.

EGU22-898 | Presentations | HS7.3

Salinity-inclusive water scarcity: examples from food bowl regions of the US and Australia 

Josefin Thorslund, Marc F.P. Bierkens, Anna Scaini, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, and Michelle T.H. van Vliet

Irrigated agriculture sustains more than 40% of global food production and uses up to 90 % of the world’s water resources. Water scarcity for the irrigation water use sector is a common problem, which may be driven by both water shortages and increased salinity levels. Limited studies however considered salinity issues in water scarcity assessment. We here developed a salinity-inclusive water scarcity framework for the irrigation sector, accounting for crop-specific irrigation water demands and salinity tolerance and its relation to water availability and salinity levels of both surface and groundwater resources. We assess temporal and spatial variation of water scarcity in agricultural river basins of the Central Valley (California) and the Murray Darling Basin (Australia), which are important food bowl regions. Our results show that including salinity and crop-specific salinity tolerances leads to very different water scarcity levels, compared to water scarcity approaches based on water quantity only, particularly at local scales. Further, our results from the Central Valley region highlights that severe water scarcity can be strongly alleviated by conjunctive groundwater use, to dilute and lower salinity levels below crop specific tolerance values in many sub-basins. However, groundwater resources needed for dilution frequently exceed renewable groundwater rates in this region, posing additional risks for groundwater depletion. Taken together, through capturing these dynamics, our water scarcity framework can support local-regional water management and provide a useful tool for sustainable water use and assessing the impact of agricultural practices, such as crop choices, on water scarcity levels.

How to cite: Thorslund, J., Bierkens, M. F. P., Scaini, A., Sutanudjaja, E. H., and van Vliet, M. T. H.: Salinity-inclusive water scarcity: examples from food bowl regions of the US and Australia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-898, 2022.

Quantification of the Water Losses (WL) components in Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) is a vital task towards their reduction. However, current WL estimation methods rely on semi-empirical approaches with high uncertainty levels, which usually lead to inaccurate estimates of the lost volume. Here, we compare the probabilistic Minimum Night Flow (MNF) estimation method introduced by Serafeim et al. (2021) to the Water Balance components analysis, introduced by the International Water Association (IWA). The strong point of the Serafeim et al. (2021) approach is that it uses statistical metrics to filter out noise effects in the flow timeseries used for MNF estimation, leading to more accurate estimation of the low flows during night hours. The effectiveness of the applied methods is tested via a large-scale, real world application to the 4 largest Pressure Management Areas (PMAs) of the WDN of the city of Patras, the third largest city in Greece (see Serafeim at al., 2022). Although methodologically different, the two approaches lead to very similar results, substantiating the robustness of the Serafeim at al. (2021) approach which allows for reliable confidence interval estimation of the observed Minimum Night Flows, making it particularly suited for engineering applications.

Acknowledgements

The research work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “First Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Faculty members and Researchers and the procurement of high-cost research equipment grant” (Project Number: 1162).

References

Serafeim, A.V., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., Karathanasi I. and Langousis A (2021) Probabilistic estimation of minimum night flow in water distribution networks: large-scale application to the city of Patras in western Greece, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk. Assess., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02042-9

Serafeim, A.V.; Kokosalakis, G.; Deidda, R.; Karathanasi, I.; Langousis, A. (2022) Probabilistic Minimum Night Flow Estimation in Water Distribution Networks and Comparison with the Water Balance Approach: Large-Scale Application to the City Center of Patras in Western Greece, Water, 14, 98, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010098

How to cite: Langousis, A., Serafeim, A., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., and Karathanasi, I.: Probabilistic water losses estimation in water distribution networks and comparison with the top down - water balance approach: A large-scale application to the city center of Patras in western Greece, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1974, 2022.

EGU22-2855 | Presentations | HS7.3

Parametric model for probabilistic estimation of water losses in water distribution networks: A large scale real world application to the city of Patras in western Greece 

Athanasios V. Serafeim, George Kokosalakis, Roberto Deidda, Irene Karathanasi, and Andreas Langousis

Abstract

Quantification of the leakage volume in pressure management areas (PMAs) is a vital task for water agencies’ financial viability. However, currently, there is no rigorous approach for their parametric modeling on the basis of networks’ specific characteristics and inlet/operating pressures. To bridge this gap, the current work focuses on the development of a probabilistic framework for minimum night flow (MNF) estimation in water distribution networks that: 1) parametrizes the MNF as a function of the network’s specific characteristics, and 2) parametrically describes water losses in individual PMAs as a function of the inlet/operating pressures. MNF estimates are obtained using the robust, non-parametric, probabilistic minimum night flow (MNF) estimation methodology developed and validated by Serafeim et al. (2021 and 2022), which allows for confidence interval estimation of the observed MNFs. The effectiveness of the developed model is tested in a large-scale real world application to the water distribution network of the city of Patras in western Greece, which serves approximately 200,000 consumers with more than 700 km of pipeline. The developed framework is validated through flow-pressure tests conducted by the Municipal Enterprise of Water Supply and Sewerage of the City of Patras to 78 PMAs of the network, indicating that the developed framework can be effectively used to improve water loss estimation and flow-pressure management in a morphologically and operationally diverse set of PMAs.

Acknowledgements

The research work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “First Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Faculty members and Researchers and the procurement of high-cost research equipment grant” (Project Number: 1162).

 

References

Serafeim, A.V., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., Karathanasi I. and Langousis A (2021) Probabilistic estimation of minimum night flow in water distribution networks: large-scale application to the city of Patras in western Greece, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk. Assess., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02042-9

Serafeim, A.V.; Kokosalakis, G.; Deidda, R.; Karathanasi, I.; Langousis, A. (2022) Probabilistic Minimum Night Flow Estimation in Water Distribution Networks and Comparison with the Water Balance Approach: Large-Scale Application to the City Center of Patras in Western Greece, Water, 14, 98, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010098

How to cite: Serafeim, A. V., Kokosalakis, G., Deidda, R., Karathanasi, I., and Langousis, A.: Parametric model for probabilistic estimation of water losses in water distribution networks: A large scale real world application to the city of Patras in western Greece, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2855, 2022.

EGU22-3301 | Presentations | HS7.3

Monitoring of agricultural drought from remote sensing products and in-situ meteorological data 

Mathis Neuhauser, Thomas Tilak, Christophe Point-Dumont, and Alexandre Peltier

The extreme events increasingly present in the Pacific (El Nino / La Nina phenomena) have significant consequences on island territories. The effect of climate change and drought episodes is therefore a central concern in many Pacific islands like Vanuatu, Wallis-and-Futuna, French Polynesia, etc. The intense drought events have undeniable impacts on biodiversity, agricultural crops and water resource, as was the case in 2019 for New Caledonia. In particular, projections in New Caledonia count on a possible increase in temperatures of 3°C and a water deficit of 20% in 2100 with longer and more intense drought episodes and an even greater west coast/east coast disparity (Dutheil, 2018). To date, the monitoring and anticipation of these drought episodes is done via meteorological measurements providing information on the rainfall deficit and not on the water stress of plants. In addition, the data are only available on a few measurement points and are not continuous over the territories.

In order to meet this need, a tool for monitoring environmental and agricultural drought using satellite images and meteorological data is being developed and validated in New Caledonia: Earth Observations for Drought Monitoring (EO4DM) project. This project is carried out in collaboration with Météo-France NC as a technical partner and the local Rural Agency as end user, and aims to provide a tool to help decision-making to institutions and management assistance for farmers. This solution will provide data constituting a singularly important source of information whose valuations and contributions can be multiple: agriculture, resource management (water), security (monitoring of risks linked to floods, fires), environment, etc.

To do so, various surface indices reflecting the state of the vegetation and certain soil properties such as humidity and temperature were estimated from different satellite sensors (MODIS, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, ASCAT) in order to address different space scales from the field to regional scale. These indices were normalized over a relatively long period, allowing access to drought indicators: VHI (Vegetation Health Index; Kogan et al., 1997), VAI (Vegetation Anomaly Index; Amri et al., 2011), MAI (Moisture Anomaly Index; Amri et al., 2012) or TAI (Temperature Anomaly Index; Le Page and Zribi, 2019). Combined with in-situ meteorological products like SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index; McKee et al., 1993) and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), these indicators assess the intensity of drought episodes and estimate their severity over the entire territory.

How to cite: Neuhauser, M., Tilak, T., Point-Dumont, C., and Peltier, A.: Monitoring of agricultural drought from remote sensing products and in-situ meteorological data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3301, 2022.

EGU22-5834 | Presentations | HS7.3

Performance of regional climate models in simulating rainy seasons in West Africa 

Torsten Weber, Vincent O. Ajayi, Imoleayo E. Gbode, Daniel Abel, Katrin Ziegler, Heiko Paeth, and Seydou B. Traore

Agriculture in West Africa is highly dependent on rainfall during the rainy seasons. Therefore, modifications in rainy season characteristics due to recent and future climate change have a direct impact on crop yields and production in the region. Consequently, stakeholders and decision-makers need reliable regional climate change information on rainy seasons in order to develop appropriate adaptation measures.

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can provide information on climate change at high temporal and spatial resolution through dynamic downscaling of climate projections generated by Earth System Models (ESMs). In order to assess the performance of RCMs in simulating rainy seasons and their characteristics such as onset and cessation, length and total sum of rainfall, a thorough evaluation of RCMs is required.

The current study evaluates the performance of three different RCMs (REMO2015, RegCM4-7 and CCLM5-0-15) in simulating rainy seasons in West Africa using gridded observational data sets. For the assessment, we will use the ERA-INTERIM driven simulations of the RCMs from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) embedded in the WCRP Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for Africa with a spatial resolution of about 25 km.

How to cite: Weber, T., Ajayi, V. O., Gbode, I. E., Abel, D., Ziegler, K., Paeth, H., and Traore, S. B.: Performance of regional climate models in simulating rainy seasons in West Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5834, 2022.

EGU22-7460 | Presentations | HS7.3

Environmental, economic and social sustainability of Alternate Wetting and Drying rice irrigation in Northern Italy 

Olfa Gharsallah, Alice Mayer, Marco Romani, Andrea Ricciardelli, Sara Caleca, Michele Rienzner, Stefano Corsi, Giovanni Ottaiano, Giulio Gilardi, and Arianna Facchi

Italy is the Europe’s leading rice producer, with over half of total European production. The main rice area is in the north-western part of the country (Lombardy and Piedmont regions). In this area, irrigation of rice has been traditionally carried out by flooding; the introduction of alternative water-saving irrigation strategies could reduce water consumption, but their overall environmental and economic sustainability, as well as their social acceptability, should be investigated.

An experimental platform was set up in the core of the Italian rice district (Lomellina, PV) to compare different rice irrigation management options: wet seeding and traditional flooding (WFL), dry seeding and delayed flooding (DFL), wet seeding and alternated wetting and drying (AWD). Six plots of about 20 m x 80 m each were set-up, with two replicates for each irrigation option. One out of two replicates for each option was instrumented with: water inflow and outflow meters, set of piezometers, set of tensiometers and water tubes for the irrigation management in the AWD plots. Proper agronomic practices were adopted for the three management options. Periodic measurements of crop biometric parameters (LAI, crop height, crop rooting depth) were performed and rice grain yields and quality (As and Cd in the grain) were determined. Data measured in the field, together with those provided by the farmer, concerning the agronomic inputs and the economic costs incurred for the three irrigation options, were used to assess their economic and environmental sustainability through a set of quantitative indicators. Finally, through interviews with rice growers of the area, barriers to the adoption of the AWD technique were assessed and ways of overcoming them identified. In order to support water management decisions and policies, data collected at the farm level are extrapolated to the irrigation district level through a semi-distributed agro-hydrological model, used to compare the overall irrigation efficiency achieved implementing AWD when compared to WFL.

How to cite: Gharsallah, O., Mayer, A., Romani, M., Ricciardelli, A., Caleca, S., Rienzner, M., Corsi, S., Ottaiano, G., Gilardi, G., and Facchi, A.: Environmental, economic and social sustainability of Alternate Wetting and Drying rice irrigation in Northern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7460, 2022.

EGU22-8093 | Presentations | HS7.3

Can an agro-hydrological model improve the irrigation management of maize under a center pivot? 

Arianna Facchi, Alice Mayer, Bianca Ortuani, and Alberto Crema

Plain areas of Northern Italy are characterized by a strong agricultural and zootechnical vocation. In the Lombardy region, the total utilized agricultural area (UAA) is about 700,000 ha, 72% of which is irrigated. Globally, about one half of the UAA is cropped with maize, but in some provinces this crop reaches almost the totality of the UAA. Maize is typically irrigated by border irrigation; however, in the context of the climate change and of the increased competition for the use of water in the plain, it is crucial to optimize the use of this resource.

This study is aimed at demonstrating the applicability of Precision Irrigation approaches in a large farm located in the core of the maize basin of the Lombardy plain (La Canova farm, BS, Italy; http://lacanovasrl.it/). In the farm, irrigation is provided by center pivots and linear irrigation systems. Although sprinkler irrigation can reduce the applied irrigation volumes compared to border irrigation, at present, a uniform irrigation rate is provided at fixed time intervals without accounting for spatial heterogeneity of soil or crop development.

During the agricultural season 2021, in a 15 hectares surface cropped with maize under a center pivot the irrigation was applied following a variable-rate approach. The soil variability was investigated using an Electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensor; through the application of cluster analysis techniques to the EMI survey, four types of soils were detected and characterized through a traditional soil sampling. According to soil variability and pivot geometry, four management zones (MZ) were identified: two MZs were characterized prevalently by coarse soils while the other two by medium-fine soils. In one ‘coarse’ MZ and one ‘fine’ MZ the irrigation was managed with the support of soil probes installed at two depth, and by a physically based agro-hydrological model (SWAP, https://www.swap.alterra.nl/) fed with weather forecasts at 7 days (https://www.abacofarmer.com/). A MATLAB code was developed to run the whole modelling system. Irrigation in the other two MZs was applied by the farmer according to the farm’s typical management (about 25-30 mm every four days). In the MZs managed with Variable Rate irrigation, the model was used to identify the optimal water depth to be applied at each irrigation event, depending on the soil water balance computed for the following 5 days; in doing this, a 4-day turn and a minimum irrigation depth of 18-25 mm (as a function of the time of the season) were respected, since they were constraints imposed by the farmer. Despite the constraints, compared to the reference MZs, the approach adopted led to a water saving of about 20 and 25% for the ‘coarse’ and ‘fine’ MZs, respectively, without a loss of yield. In the next step, the approach adopted will be used to estimate the water and energy saving achievable at the farm scale.

How to cite: Facchi, A., Mayer, A., Ortuani, B., and Crema, A.: Can an agro-hydrological model improve the irrigation management of maize under a center pivot?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8093, 2022.

EGU22-8392 | Presentations | HS7.3

Limnological responses to active management of the invasive aquatic fern Salvinia molesta in Las Curias Reservoir, San Juan, Puerto Rico. 

Xavier García López, Jorge Ortiz Zayas, Rodrigo Díaz, Aurelio Castro Jiménez, and Moisés Abdelrahman López

In the Anthropocene, human action and globalization are closely linked to the deterioration of natural habitats and water resources. Invasive aquatic weeds have been recognized as a major problem in watersheds worldwide due to their environmental impacts. This study focuses on the management of the Las Curias Reservoir in Cupey Puerto Rico in the Río Piedras watershed since the arrival of Salvinia molesta after Hurricane María in 2017.
Aquatic weed control consists of three methods: biological, mechanical, and chemical. Since December 2019, with the help of federal and local agencies, the University of Puerto Rico in Rio Piedras and a community-driven initiative led to the introduction of the Cyrtobagous salviniae in Las Curias Reservoir.  This insect is considered an effective biological control agent for S.  molesta.  Simultaneously, community members initiated a mechanical removal campaign using an aquatic harvester. Monthly sampling was conducted to measure physicochemical, biochemical, and biophysical variables in the reservoir in response to the reduction of S. molesta cover. In addition, monthly drone flights were conducted to create orthomosaic maps of the plant coverage over the water surface, as part of the monitoring of the ecosystem health and characterization. Probably the propagation of S. molesta occurred due to eutrophication after an increase in nutrient-rich sewage discharges from septic tanks and faulty sewage pump stations affected by power outages after Hurricane Maria. By 2019, the reservoir was completely covered with S. molesta. It is not until August 2020 that we noticed considerable changes in the reduction of plant density. Upon the reduction of S. molesta coverage, we found increases in the mean of water temperature (+3 Cِ°), dissolved oxygen (+1.4 mg/L), pH (+0.5) specific conductance (+118.3 µS/cm) and in light penetration (+255.6 
μmo/m^2/s).  The water stored in Las Curias could become an invaluable source of raw water for public supply during future droughts, especially in the densely populated San Juan Metropolitan Area, where Las Curias is located. Therefore, its restoration is socially relevant and justifiable. 

How to cite: García López, X., Ortiz Zayas, J., Díaz, R., Castro Jiménez, A., and Abdelrahman López, M.: Limnological responses to active management of the invasive aquatic fern Salvinia molesta in Las Curias Reservoir, San Juan, Puerto Rico., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8392, 2022.

EGU22-8409 | Presentations | HS7.3

Statistical methodology for PRV malfunction detection and alerting in Water Distribution Networks 

Anastasios Perdios, George Kokosalakis, Irene Karathanasi, and Andreas Langousis

As the outflow velocity from a pipe crack increases with increasing hydraulic pressure, pressure management concepts have been widely applied to reduce water losses in the delivering and distribution parts of water networks. In this context, pressure reducing valves (PRVs) have been commonly used to regulate pressures and therefore reduce water losses, in both water supply and water distribution networks, by reducing the upstream pressure to a set outlet pressure (i.e. downstream of the PRV), usually referred to as set point.

As all types of mechanical equipment, PRVs exhibit malfunctions affecting pressure regulation, which can be defined as events when the outlet pressure does not match the set point. These events can be classified in two categories: a) high frequency fluctuations around the set point, and b) prolonged systematic deviations from the set point. Since PRV malfunctions result in systematic or random deviations of the outlet pressure from the set point, their detection can be approached in a statistical context.

In this study, we develop a novel framework for detection of PRV malfunctions in water supply and water distribution networks, which uses: a) the root mean squared error (RMSE) as a proper statistical metric for monitoring the performance of a PRV by detecting individual malfunctions (i.e. malfunction occurrences) in the high-resolution pressure time series, and b) the hazard function concept to identify a proper duration of sequential events from (a) to issue alerts.

The suggested methodology is implemented using pressure data at 1-min temporal resolution from pressure management area “Diagora” of the water distribution network of the city of Patras (the third largest city in Greece), for a 3 year period from 01 January 2017 to 31 December 2019. The obtained results show that the developed statistical approach effectively detects major PRV malfunctions (as reported by the Municipal Water Supply Company and Sewerage of Patras, DEYAP), allowing it to be used for operational purposes.

Acknowledgments:

This research is co‐financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH – CREATE – INNOVATE (project code: T2EDK-4177).

How to cite: Perdios, A., Kokosalakis, G., Karathanasi, I., and Langousis, A.: Statistical methodology for PRV malfunction detection and alerting in Water Distribution Networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8409, 2022.

EGU22-8898 | Presentations | HS7.3

Small Islands – Precipitation in the Future 

Maria Meirelles, Fernanda Carvalho, Diamantino Henriques, and Patrícia Navarro

For most islands, there is very little published literature documenting the probability, frequency, severity,or consequences of climate change impacts, such as an decrease in precipitation. Some times, projections of future climate change impacts are limited by the lack of model skill in projecting the climatic variables that matter to small islands. The Azores are an archipelago formed by nine high volcanic islands, presenting a relatively small land area where precipitation is of orographic origin. Relatively projections up to the end of the 21st century, they were used for the same geographic region - the Azores region between 37 °N - 40°N and 32°W - 25°W - the results of the CMIP5 project for the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios; trajectories describe four possible future climate scenarios, which depend on the amount of greenhouse gases emissions that may be emitted in the coming years. The four RCP scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5), correspond to four radiative forcing intervals for the year 2100, to pre-industrial values ​​(+2.6, +4.5, +6.0 and +8.5 W/m2, respectively). Most of the CMIP5 climate data and projections used in this work they are freely available on the Climate Ex plorer portal (https://climexp.knmi.nl/) of the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut). Anomaly of the average annual precipitation for the Azores was calculated in the 1979-2019 period and its projections are estimated up to 2100, according to the RCP scenarios (Figure 1). In this case, the average variation calculated for the three scenarios for annual precipitation is -7.8 mm; in the case of the scenario more pessimistic (RCP 8.5), the models show for the Azores a decrease in average annual precipitation of about 9.8 mm/day until the end of the century, compared to the average of the last 30 years. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, a decrease is observed which is accentuated from the northwest to the southeast in the region under consideration, especially affecting the islands of the central and eastern groups. Of the calculations results for the average of the models an increase of the maximum number consecutive days with low rainfall (<1mm) from + 0.2 to 4.8 days / year until the year 2100. The demand for water affects basically four activities: the agriculture, energy production, industrial uses and consumption human. The projections found for the Azores of a decrease in precipitation are in line with other small island regions, such as the Caribbean and Mediterranean region. Thus, these regions become more vulnerable to social, economic and environmental impacts.

How to cite: Meirelles, M., Carvalho, F., Henriques, D., and Navarro, P.: Small Islands – Precipitation in the Future, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8898, 2022.

EGU22-10221 | Presentations | HS7.3 | Highlight

Pandemic Medical Supply Needs with a Coincident Natural Disaster and an Analysis of COVID-19 Data Availability 

Paul Churchyard, Ajay Gupta, and Joshua Lieberman

The Open Geospatial Consortium’s Disaster Pilot 2021 focused on turning earth observation and reporting data into decision ready indicators (DRI) for disaster response and management.  HSR.health as a Pilot participant  developed the recipe for, and produced a Medical Supply Needs Index that indicates what medical supplies, such as Personal Protective Equipment, are needed to respond to COVID-19 cases throughout a population. Medical Supply Needs Indices were calculated for areas within the Pilot focus regions and shared via a dashboard-style application. HSR.health and collaborators then set up an integrated demonstration showing the Medical Supply Needs Index updating in real-time as a result of data on the occurrence and impacts of multiple coincident natural disasters such as flooding, landslides, and pandemic spread. HSR.health also carried out work within the Pilot to apply and evaluate the draft Health Spatial Data Infrastructure (HSDI) model developed in the pre-Pilot OGC Health Spatial Data Infrastructure Concept Development Study. This included research into the availability of pandemic-related health related data in the US and in Peru, as well as investigation of the spatiotemporal granularity or resolution of observation data best suited to support indicators for community-level public health interventions.

How to cite: Churchyard, P., Gupta, A., and Lieberman, J.: Pandemic Medical Supply Needs with a Coincident Natural Disaster and an Analysis of COVID-19 Data Availability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10221, 2022.

Coastal cities in India houses nearly 100 million people and are evenly distributed across India’s 7516-kilometer coastline. These cities are important centers of socio-economic activities in the country and are some of the densely populated regions in the world. A number of studies recently have predicted that there is a risk of substantial portions of these cities’ areas being lost to the sea due to sea-level rise in the next few decades, since a major portion of these cities are at a near zero elevation from the mean sea level (M.S.L). Further, in the past few decades, major coastal cities in India have been repeatedly affected by recurrent extreme rainfall events and subsequent floodings. Several studies document that rapid change in the Indian monsoon, increased frequency in the formation of cyclones and the swift changes in the hydro-climatic regime in the Indian Ocean are the major contributors to the occurrence of these extreme precipitations events. While we can safely conclude that these events are likely to occur more frequently in the future, it is important to understand the factors that control and influence these events, comprehend how the cities are and will be affected, and develop feasible policy changes and mitigation action for effective governance. In this paper, we have taken the case of Chennai – an important coastal city located in the southern part of India that has been severely affected by extreme precipitation and subsequent flooding (notably the infamous 2015 Chennai floods) in the past few years, to study the influencing factors contributing to these events and the ground challenges faced by the government machinery in planning and managing these disasters effectively. Our findings indicate that there is a notable variation in the monsoon rainfall pattern in Chennai and the net annual rainfall in the city has increased significantly in the past decade (by ~15%). Further, we found that significant urban centers in the city, especially the regions that are at near zero elevation (± 5 meters above M.S.L) are more vulnerable to flooding, and the important contributing factors to the increased severity of the recent floodings include the lack of adequate stormwater drainage infrastructure and poor policy choice of converting natural surface water bodies (lakes and ponds) into towns during the past three to four decades. We also discuss the planning and execution of Chennai city’s mitigation action during the 2021 floods, analyze its success and shortcomings, and suggest sustainable and feasible policy changes and measures that can be adopted for better management of similar events in the future in other coastal cities as well.

How to cite: Mohanavelu, A. and Soundharajan, B.-S.: Increased frequency of urban floodings in coastal Indian cities caused by variation in monsoon rainfall: Influencing factors, challenges, and solutions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10483, 2022.

EGU22-11068 | Presentations | HS7.3

Optimal sowing dates for major crops in India under climate change 

Aditya Narayan Sharma, Sai Jagadeesh Gaddam, and Prasanna Venkatesh Sampath

Agriculture plays a pivotal role in supporting the socioeconomic situation of millions of farmers in India, which is increasingly coming under threat due to climate change. In particular, the future changes in rainfall patterns has the potential to directly affect the irrigation water demands, thereby impacting water consumption, agricultural productivity, and influencing food security. For instance, the optimal sowing dates for crops may change according to the altered rainfall patterns. With this motivation, we studied the impacts of shifts in sowing periods in order to identify the optimal sowing dates for a particular crop. First, we collected daily temperature and rainfall data for India at a resolution of 0.25o from different GCM models (EC-Earth 3 and EC-Earth 3 veg) under different SSP scenarios (SSP 126, SSP 245, SSP370, SSP585). Also, region-wise agricultural data such as crop acreage and sowing dates were collected for seven major crops - paddy, wheat, maize, groundnut, sugarcane, red gram, black gram, and soybean. Subsequently, we estimated the reference evapotranspiration using the modified Penman-Monteith method. The estimated reference evapotranspiration and rainfall data were incorporated into FAO’s CROPWAT model to calculate the irrigation water requirements (IWR) of the selected crops. The optimal IWR for each crop was selected by varying the sowing dates at fifteen-day intervals across the year (twenty-four dates for the year). Preliminary results indicate that there is considerable scope for water savings by shifting the sowing dates of staple crops to account for climate change impacts. These strategies may become vital for policymakers in the coming decades to reduce the stresses on water without endangering food security. Indeed, such strategies require the cooperation of various stakeholders for better implementation at multiple scales.

How to cite: Sharma, A. N., Gaddam, S. J., and Sampath, P. V.: Optimal sowing dates for major crops in India under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11068, 2022.

EGU22-11145 | Presentations | HS7.3

Optimizing cropping patterns under the influence of climate change 

Sindhuja Reddy Pasula, Swethu Sree Gudem, Sai Jagadeesh Gaddam, and Prasanna Venkatesh Sampath

The world needs 70% more food by 2050, increasing the pressure on the available water resources. With the climate change threat approaching, the water stress will further be exacerbated that would adversely affect food security. In countries like India, with extensive cultivation of staple crops like paddy, there has been a rapid increase in the total water consumption. At the same time, cultivation of crops such as pulses and millets has not been sufficient to satisfy the nutritional requirements of India’s population. With the increased likelihood of droughts and floods due to the advent of climate change, it becomes imperative to achieve water, food, and nutritional security into the future. This study attempts to optimise cropping patterns to minimise future water requirement, while satisfying the nutritional and caloric requirements of future generations. We perform the analysis for the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, where agriculture depends predominantly on irrigation. To achieve this objective of optimization, we collected bias-corrected climate datasets from three General Circulation Models (BCC-CSM2-MR, INM-CM5-0, MPI-ESM1-2 HR) that include future rainfall and temperature information from 2021 to 2050. Further, we collected crop-wise farm-level data of five major crops in the state - paddy, sugarcane, groundnut, sorghum, and red gram. The irrigation water requirement (IWR) of the selected crops was estimated using FAO’s CROPWAT model under two different scenarios - SSP 245, SSP 585. Further, we developed an optimization model to obtain the optimal cropping pattern that minimises water consumption. Future food requirements in terms of protein and calorie demands and arable land available for cultivation were used as constraints to perform this optimization. Preliminary results indicate that shifting from water-intensive crops like sugarcane to relatively more nutritious crops like red gram and sorghum has the potential to significantly reduce water consumption, while also enhancing the nutritional security of the region. Interestingly, the optimization results indicated that the southern part of the study region required more interventions in terms of crop diversification as compared to the northern part. Such insights could help decision makers to devise holistic policies, enhancing the water-food security under different climate change scenarios. Further, this research could be extended to domains such as economics, ecology, and energy to achieve overall sustainability in the agricultural sector.

How to cite: Pasula, S. R., Gudem, S. S., Gaddam, S. J., and Sampath, P. V.: Optimizing cropping patterns under the influence of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11145, 2022.

EGU22-11578 | Presentations | HS7.3

The role of urban streams in the microplastics contamination scenario: the case study of the Mugnone Creek (Florence, Italy) 

Alessio Monnanni, Gabriele Bicocchi, Eleonora De Beni, Valentina Rimondi, Tania Martellini, David Chelazzi, Alessandra Cincinelli, Stefania Venturi, Guia Morelli, Pierfranco Lattanzi, and Pilario Costagliola

Due to their spread, abundance and potential impact on food security and human health, microplastics (MPs) are emerging global pollutants. Metropolitan areas are among the main sources of MPs (1 μm - 5 mm); indeed, about 80% of the MPs found in the oceans come from freshwaters. In particular, impervious surfaces runoff in urban areas results in the transport of large quantities of solid wastes, comprising MPs, to the superficial water bodies. Thus, the ecological state of urban streams represents a reliable indicator to evaluate the environmental impact of a city. In this study, we report data about MPs in stream sediments and waters of a minor urban stream, the Mugnone Creek (MC), which flows across the highly urbanized city of Florence (Italy) and discharges to the Arno River.

Several sites along the 17 km-long MC were chosen, including “greenfield” sites upstream of the Florence urban area, urban-impacted sites located along congested roads, and the MC outlet. The stream sediments were collected in June 2019, while stream waters were recovered via glass bottles twice a year (June and December) in 2019 and 2020, to account for seasonal variability. Stream discharge was simultaneously determined during water sampling to allow mass flow calculations of contaminants.

Water samples were filtered onto glass microfiber filters (ø 47 mm) and observed by HD digital stereomicroscope; a similar method was followed for sediments after a density separation step (NaCl saturated solution) and H2O2 digestion. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) was used for identification and characterization of MPs. Microparticles classification was based on polymer type, shape and colour.

MPs concentration in sediments showed an increasing trend from the pre-urban site to the outlet. A maximum value (1.540 MPs/kg) was reached immediately after the Terzolle Creek confluence, which drains the large University Hospital District of Careggi. Fibers were the dominant shape class of polymers observed and blue/black items stand out among the colour classes. The highest concentrations of MPs in water samples were recorded during winter seasons (up to 16.000 items/m3), with a predominance of fibers and blue/black colours. Polymer classification by FTIR indicated the presence of (in order of abundance): PA (polyamide), PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate), SBR (butadiene-styrene rubber), PP (Polypropylene), blend PP+PE (PP+Polyethylene), PTFE (Polytetrafluoroethylene) and PU (Polyurethane). The black-SBR polymers likely related to tyre abrasion occurring during vehicles driving, since they were especially found on a site close to traffic-congested roads. In addition to synthetic particles, high concentrations of natural fibers (mainly cellulose) were found in waters at all sites. Up to 109 synthetic particles are estimated to be discharged daily by MC to the Arno River during the winter season, a load much higher than creeks with similar urbanization context worldwide. Mass loads of natural fibers were of the same order of magnitude of MPs in every season.

Studies are in progress to elucidate the impact on local biota and to characterize the anthropic pressure on the Arno River, aiming to improve the knowledge about the environmental status of one of the main Italian river basins.

How to cite: Monnanni, A., Bicocchi, G., De Beni, E., Rimondi, V., Martellini, T., Chelazzi, D., Cincinelli, A., Venturi, S., Morelli, G., Lattanzi, P., and Costagliola, P.: The role of urban streams in the microplastics contamination scenario: the case study of the Mugnone Creek (Florence, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11578, 2022.

Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions such as droughts may have an increasing impact on the water demand and the productivity of irrigated agriculture. For the adaptation to changing climate conditions, knowledge about adequate irrigation control strategies and information, e.g., about future climate development and soil properties, is of great importance for the optimal operation of irrigation systems. We consider climate and soil variability within one probabilistic simulation-optimization framework for irrigation scheduling based on Monte Carlo simulations to support informed decisions. The framework implements optimizers for full, deficit, and supplemental irrigation strategies. We provide the  Matlab code as the open source Deficit Irrigation Toolbox (DIT). For this analysis, we apply DIT for preliminary test simulations for a global numerical deficit irrigation experiment (GDIE) which allows for the analysis of both the impact of the selected irrigation strategy on water productivity and the value of information about (i) different scheduling methods, (ii) climate development, and (iii) soil hydraulic properties. The first results show a strong dependency on the value of information about climate and soil for sites required for increasing water productivity in different climate regions. Moreover, DIT can enable and support the site-specific transformation of low efficient rainfed and irrigated systems achieving higher water productivity and food insecurity on a local scale.

How to cite: Schütze, N. and Dietz, A.: Comparison of the value of information for the management of deficit irrigation systems in different climate regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11631, 2022.

EGU22-12798 | Presentations | HS7.3

FORESHELL Project: development of sanitary/weather-environmental predictive technological tools to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of shellfish farming. 

Barbara Tomassetti, Annalina Lombardi, Valentina Colaiuda, Federica Conti, Giuseppina Mascilongo, Fabrizio Capoccioni, Domitilla Pulcini, Gabriella Di Francesco, Ludovica Di Renzo, Chiara Profico, Carla Ippoliti, Carla Giansante, Nicola Ferri, and Federica Di Giacinto

Many of the estuaries and coastal areas in Europe are used for the cultivation and harvesting of bivalve mollusks. Mussel farming is strongly influenced by weather and environmental conditions. Several studies have shown that the sanitary conditions of shellfish are related to hydrological factors of rivers adjacent to the farming area, as rivers are the main routes of bacteriological contamination from the surface or sub-surface.

The "FORESHELL" project, funded by Costa Blu FLAG as part of the EMFF 2014-20 program of the Abruzzo Region, is carrying out a pilot initiative for the development of sanitary/weather-environmental predictive technological tools in order to improve efficiency and sustainability of the mussel farm located at the Giuliano Maritime District.

A specific sampling schedule is established before and after severe weather events to determine the E. coli
concentration in freshwater at the river mouths and in mussels/seawater in the farming site. At the same time, the hydrographic basins of the rivers close to the farm, Vibrata and Salinello, are constantly monitored trough the hydrological model (CHyM), to predict the occurrence of flow discharge peaks at mouth of the river. In addition, the satellites and the in-situ probe acquire environmental parameters such as sea water temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a, sea currents and wave motion.

The web application for data visualization is under construction, as well as the early warning reports to the farmer. Furthermore, the growth of mussels is constantly monitored with biometric controls. The implementation of all phases of the FORESHELL project are proceeding according to the timeline in order to develop innovative tools useful for the management of mussel farming area.

How to cite: Tomassetti, B., Lombardi, A., Colaiuda, V., Conti, F., Mascilongo, G., Capoccioni, F., Pulcini, D., Di Francesco, G., Di Renzo, L., Profico, C., Ippoliti, C., Giansante, C., Ferri, N., and Di Giacinto, F.: FORESHELL Project: development of sanitary/weather-environmental predictive technological tools to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of shellfish farming., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12798, 2022.

Unprecedented wildfires swept Mediterranean Europe in the summer of 2021 wreaking havoc economically and socially while clearing large swaths of forest land. Those that scorched the southern coastal highlands in Turkey came on the heels of a heat wave and at the peak of the arid season. Nearly two thirds of the Anatolian Peninsula are under the influence of Mediterranean-type climate and prone to seasonal wildfires, a quality that also encourages high species diversity. The region’s heterogenous topography is home to different meso- and micro-climates which in turn translate into high rates of endemism. Although fire as disturbance is essential for the regeneration of Mediterranean-type ecosystems, potential changes in fire frequency and severity, coupled with longer periods of drought expectations - mainly as a result of anthropogenic deforestation and climate change - is duly raising concerns. The expected increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-based disturbances necessitates some form of a predictive mechanism for future protection and mitigation, especially for these otherwise fire-adapted ecosystems. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) with built in disturbance schemes when forced with future projections of climate models can be powerful tools in this regard.

In this study, we present our preliminary findings from six different model simulations, run with LPJ-GUESS, a process based DGVM. We initially introduced three native conifer species with different fire histories and significant distributions in the Anatolian Peninsula to the model and forced it with climatic drivers from ERA5 Land reanalysis dataset for the historical period. Once confident that our simulation results closely reflected the historical fires in the remote sensing datasets available through Google Earth Engine, we continued to force the model with climatic drivers from different model contributions to CMIP6, bias-corrected, interpolated to the 9-km horizontal resolution of ERA5 Land reanalysis and reflecting the RCP 8.5 scenario. All simulation results were analyzed using Climate Data Operators (CDO), ArcGIS, and R computing language.

Our preliminary results indicate an overall increase in pyro-diversity for the country across all simulations. A potential expansion of wildfire range towards the northwest was also observed, a curious outcome as this region includes the western Black Sea mountain ranges that are known for high precipitation rates. These mountains are also home to a rich forest cover with a fine mixture of broadleaved and conifer species spreading horizontally along different altitudinal belts. In light of our preliminary findings and along with our continuing research on the effects of any potential future climate-change related shifts in the fire regime on forest composition, we urge additional study of different landscape scale disturbances (i.e. soil erosion and landslides) which may potentially be triggered as a result of a diversifying and intensifying fire regime and which may have a significant impact for the terrestrial ecosystems and livelihood. 

This study benefited from the 2232 International Fellowship for Outstanding Researchers Program of the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) grant 118C329. The financial support received from TUBITAK doesn’t mean that the content of the publication is scientifically approved by TUBITAK.

How to cite: Ekberzade, B., Yetemen, O., and Sen, O. L.: Looking into a fuzzy future: coupled effect of pyrogeography and a changing climate on an already fragile terrestrial ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-239, 2022.

EGU22-384 | Presentations | BG1.2

Pantanal’s 2020 fire season in perspective: the case of a natural heritage reserve 

Patrícia S. Silva, Joana Nogueira, and Renata Libonati

Pantanal saw a catastrophic fire season in 2020, with a quarter of the biome hit by flames (around 4 million ha). Protected and indigenous areas burnt entirely, and it is estimated that at least 17 million vertebrates died, including several endangered species endemic to the biome. These dramatic events drew attention to the occurrence and aftermath of fire within a fire-sensitive ecosystem such as Pantanal’s wetlands.

The RPPN (Reserva Particular do Patrimônio Natural) SESC Pantanal was one of such protected areas severely affected in 2020, with around 2/3 of its territory burnt. Here, we analyse the historical fire behaviour within the RPPN, including the 2020 events, using remote sensing products over the 2001-2020 period. 

Although fire has historically occurred within the RPPN at an average of 2 400 ha burned per year, the 2020 fire events were an absolute outlier with more than 70 600 ha burned. Before 2020, only 2010 reached above 10 000 ha of burned areas, and the most extreme events were found to be those above 3 000 ha. When considering the 2001-2019 period, wetlands and grasslands are the land cover types that burn the most (52 and 17% of the total burned area, respectively), followed by forests and savanna formations (16 and 9%, respectively). The year of 2020, however, changed this pattern: most burned areas occurred in forested areas (40%), followed by grasslands (26%) and savanna formations (24%). We also found that fire is not recurrent: during the 19 years of historical data the vast majority of burned areas occurred only once (60%), 35% burned up twice or thrice, and solely 5% burned more than 3 times.

Future climate change assessments seem to point at a warmer and drier future for the biome, when events such as 2020 might become more regular. Our results provide an historical characterization leading up to the 2020 fires within the RPPN SESC Pantanal, that may be of use for fire managers in light of future climate change. 

How to cite: Silva, P. S., Nogueira, J., and Libonati, R.: Pantanal’s 2020 fire season in perspective: the case of a natural heritage reserve, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-384, 2022.

EGU22-1007 | Presentations | BG1.2

Investigating woody species resprouting in response to fire 

Yicheng Shen, Colin Prentice, and Sandy Harrison

Fire is a major disturbance in natural ecosystems and more extreme fires are predicted to occur in the future. Plant species can survive or resist wildfires and adapt to fire-prone regimes by exhibiting fire-related plant traits such as serotiny and heat-simulated germination. Resprouting is one of the most common plant traits that confer resilience to fire, promoting rapid post-fire recovery and affecting ecosystem dynamics. We investigated the relationships between the abundance of resprouting woody species, fire return interval and fire intensity in three regions: Europe, Australia and South and Central America. Species abundance data were obtained from the SplotOpen database while resprouting information are derived from regional and global databases, field information and the literature. Fire return time and fire intensity at each site were estimated using remotely sensed observations (MODIS MCD64CMQ, MODIS MCD14ML and Fire Atlas). We show that the abundance of resprouting woody species decreases with increasing fire return interval but that resprouters are most abundant at intermediate levels of fire intensity. These patterns are seen in all the three regions. Given that the abundance of resprouting woody species is strongly related to the fire regime, it should be possible to model their distribution in an optimality framework. Since the abundance of resprouters will affect ecosystem post-fire recovery, it is important to include this trait in fire-enabled vegetation models in order to simulate ecosystem dynamics adequately.

How to cite: Shen, Y., Prentice, C., and Harrison, S.: Investigating woody species resprouting in response to fire, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1007, 2022.

EGU22-1169 | Presentations | BG1.2

Recent and future intense fire seasons in the Mediterranean basin: the increasing role of droughts and heatwaves 

Ricardo Trigo, Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Pedro Sousa, Ana Russo, and Julien Ruffault

Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to forest fires, as evidenced by several extreme fire seasons which struck in the last two decades, including both western (2003, 2005, 2017) and eastern (2007, 2018, 2021) Mediterranean sectors. These fire seasons had a massive impact on the economy and the environment, having also caused many human casualties, including 145 in Portugal 2017 and about 100 in Greece 2018. Moreover, it is now widely accepted that these outstanding fire seasons are often associated with unusually intense droughts and heatwaves (Turco et al., 2019; Ruffault et al, 2020). Additionally, there is strong evidence that the frequency of drought events in the Mediterranean basin has increased significantly in the last decades and is bound to increase further under different climate change scenarios (Tramblay et al., 2020).

The relentless tendency for increasing summer temperatures in Europe in recent decades, when compared to the last 500 hundred years, also underlines that the increment in temperatures is extensive to central and Scandinavian countries (Sousa et al., 2020), where forest fires have become considerably more frequent. Recent assessments have emphasised the synergy between drought and extremely hot summers in the Mediterranean (Russo et al., 2020).

In addition to this climate change scenarios point to a likely increase in the frequency of two specific heat-induced fire-weather types, precisely those that have been related to the largest wildfires observed in recent years (Ruffault et al., 2020). Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5. In summary, these results consistently suggest that the frequency and extent of wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin.

 

Ruffault J., Curt T., Moron V., Trigo R.M., Mouillot F., Koutsias N., Pimont F., Martin-StPaul N., Barbero R., Dupuy J.-L., Russo A., Belhadj-Khedher C., (2020) Scientific Reports, 10, 13790, doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-70069-z

Russo A., Gouveia C.M., Dutra E., Soares P.M.M., Trigo R.M.  (2019) Environmental Research Letters, 14(1), 014011, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf09e

Sousa P., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., Ordoñez C., Soares P.MM, Trigo R.M. (2020) Communications Earth & Environment, 1, 48, doi: 10.1038/s43247-020-00048-9

Turco M., Jerez S., Augusto S., Tarín-Carrasco P., Ratola N., Jimenez-Guerrero P., Trigo, R.M. (2019) Scientific Reports, 9, 1, doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-50281-2

 

This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project FIRECAST (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017). M.T. is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities - Spanish State Research Agency and the European Regional Development Fund through the PREDFIRE projects (RTI2018-099711-J-I00, MCI/AEI/FEDER, EU) and the Ramón y Cajal grant (RYC2019-027115-I). S.J. thanks the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities - Agencia Estatal de Investigación and the European Regional Development Fund for the support received through the EASE project (RTI2018 100870 A I00).

How to cite: Trigo, R., Turco, M., Jerez, S., Sousa, P., Russo, A., and Ruffault, J.: Recent and future intense fire seasons in the Mediterranean basin: the increasing role of droughts and heatwaves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1169, 2022.

EGU22-1217 | Presentations | BG1.2 | Highlight

Palaeofire: current status and future opportunities 

Sandy Harrison, Daniel Gallagher, Paul Lincoln, Mengmeng Liu, Yicheng Shen, Luke Sweeney, and Roberto Villegas-Diaz

Sedimentary charcoal records are widely used to reconstruct regional changes in fire regimes through time in the geological past. The Reading Palaeofire Database (RPD) represents the most comprehensive compilation of sedimentary charcoal data currently available. It contains 1673 individual charcoal records from 1480 sites worldwide, with sufficient metadata to allow for the appropriate selection of sites to address specific questions. Most of the records have new age models, made by re-calibrating the radiocarbon ages using INTCAL2020 and Bayesian age-modelling software. In this talk we will show how these data are being used to document changing fire regimes during the Late Quaternary and to explore how fire regimes have responded to changes in climate, vegetation and human activities. We will demonstrate the progress that has been made to calibrate the charcoal records and make quantitative estimates of fire properties. We will also explore how these data can be used to evaluate and benchmark process-based fire-enabled models. Finally, we will highlight opportunities to use the palaeo-record together with models to explore fire regimes and their consequences for land-surface processes, biogeochemical cycles and climate.

How to cite: Harrison, S., Gallagher, D., Lincoln, P., Liu, M., Shen, Y., Sweeney, L., and Villegas-Diaz, R.: Palaeofire: current status and future opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1217, 2022.

EGU22-1372 | Presentations | BG1.2

Pyrogenic carbon decomposition critical to resolving fire's role in the Earth system 

Simon P.K. Bowring, Matthew W. Jones, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Samuel Abiven

Recently identified post-fire carbon fluxes indicate that in order to understand if global fires represent a net carbon source or sink, one must consider both terrestrial carbon retention through pyrogenic carbon (PyC) production, and carbon losses via multiple pathways. Here, these legacy source and sink pathways are quantified using a CMIP6 land surface model to estimate Earth's fire carbon budget. Over 1901-2010, global PyC drives annual soil carbon accumulation of 337 TgCyr-1, offset by legacy carbon losses totalling -248 TgCyr-1. The residual of these values constrains maximum annual pyrogenic carbon mineralisation to 89 TgCyr-1, and PyC mean residence time to 5387 years, assuming steady state.   However, paucity of observational constraints for representing PyC mineralisation mean that without assuming steady state, we are unable to determine the sign of the overall fire carbon balance. 

The residual is negative over forests and positive over grassland-savannahs (implying a potential sink), suggesting contrasting roles of vegetation in the fire carbon cycle. Without widespread tropical grassland-savannah coverage, the legacy effects of fires could not feasibly enhance terrestrial C storage -a result afforded by grasses’ capacity for fire recovery. The dependency of the fire C residual on vegetation composition suggests that the preservation/restoration of native grasslands may be an important vector for decreasing C losses from future fire activity. We call for significant investments in understanding of PyC degradation and its drivers, in addition to improved estimates of legacy fire C fluxes. Reliable quantification of PyC mineralisation and erosion, particularly over grasslands, remains the principal missing link in a holistic understanding of fire’s role in the Earth system.

How to cite: Bowring, S. P. K., Jones, M. W., Ciais, P., Guenet, B., and Abiven, S.: Pyrogenic carbon decomposition critical to resolving fire's role in the Earth system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1372, 2022.

EGU22-1671 | Presentations | BG1.2

Representing socio-economic factors in INFERNO using the Human Development Index 

Joao Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

INFERNO human fire ignitions and fire suppression functions excluded the representation of socio-economic factors (aside population density) that can affect anthropogenic behaviour regarding fire ignitions. To address this, we implement a socio-economic factor in the fire ignition and suppression parametrisation in INFERNO based on an Human Development Index (HDI) term. The HDI is calculated based on three indicators designed to capture the income, health, and education dimensions of human development. Therefore, we assume this leads to a representation where if there is more effort in improving human development, there is also investment on higher fire suppression by the population. Including this representation of socio-economic factors in INFERNO we were able to reduce large positive biases that were found for the regions of Temperate North America, Central America, Europe and Southern Hemisphere South America without significant impact to other regions, improving the model performance at a regional level and better representing processes that drive fire behaviour in the Earth System.

How to cite: Teixeira, J., Burton, C., Kelley, D. I., Folberth, G., O'Connor, F. M., Betts, R., and Voulgarakis, A.: Representing socio-economic factors in INFERNO using the Human Development Index, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1671, 2022.

EGU22-1916 | Presentations | BG1.2

Application of biochar to irrigated technosoils: Effects on germination and agronomic properties 

José María De la Rosa, Paloma Campos, Arturo Santa-Olalla, Águeda Sanchez-Martín, Ana Miller, and Elena Fernández-Boy

Today's agriculture faces the challenge of safely feeding a growing population. This situation generates additional pressures on the environment such as increased organic waste generation, irrigated cropland and the consumption of mineral fertilizers. Moreover, in the present context of global warming, it is necessary to transform the linear economy into a circular economy, in which organic waste should be valorized and greenhouse gas emissions reduced. During the last decade the transformation of organic waste into biochar, the carbon-rich material produced during pyrolysis of biomass to be applied as soil ameliorant [1], to increase the amount of pyrogenic C at soils have been developed [2]. Here, green compost and biochar were produced from contrasting agricultural wastes and applied at greenhouse under limited irrigation conditions.

Results showed that raw material, together with the pyrolysis conditions, determined physical properties of biochars, and thus its performance as soil amendment. In all cases, an increase in the pyrogenic carbon content and a general improvement in the physical properties of agronomic interest of the technosoils were observed. However, the use of high doses of olive-pomace biochar negatively affected the germination due to its high salinity.

Biochar, although beneficial, is therefore not a universal solution and must be characterized, have the appropriate properties and be applied in a specific way to correct specific soil deficiencies.

Acknowledgements: The BBVA foundation is gratefully acknowledged for funding the scholarship Leonardo to “Investigadores y Creadores Culturales 2020” (Proyecto realizado con la Beca Leonardo a Investigadores y Creadores Culturales 2020 de la Fundación BBVA).

References:

[1] Campos, P., Miller, A., Knicker, H., Costa-Pereira, M., Merino, A., De la Rosa, J.M., 2020. Waste Manag., 105, 256-267.

[2] De la Rosa, J.M., Rosado, M., Paneque, M., Miller, A.Z., Knicker, H., 2018. Sci. Tot. Environ., 613-614, 969-976.

How to cite: De la Rosa, J. M., Campos, P., Santa-Olalla, A., Sanchez-Martín, Á., Miller, A., and Fernández-Boy, E.: Application of biochar to irrigated technosoils: Effects on germination and agronomic properties, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1916, 2022.

EGU22-2442 | Presentations | BG1.2

Pyrogenic carbon from wildfire or from the laboratory 

Daquan Sun

Wildfires remove well-developed vegetation but restore it from an ecological point of view, although they are often called disasters when their intensity and extent in forests are large. Thermochemical decomposition of organic material at high temperatures (200 - 750 °C) in the absence of oxygen (or any halogen) to decompose biosolids has been recognised as a method with numerous benefits for waste management, carbon sequestration and sustainable agriculture. The effects of pyrogenic carbon (PyC) from wildfire and from the laboratory are believed to be different. The evidence to date is informative in bridging pyrogenic carbon from wildfire and pyrolysis, including aspects of: 1) PyC as a microsite for microbial communities; 2) the role of PyC of different sizes in soil aggregation; 3) the role of the soil microbiome in soil aggregation; 4) nutrient release - phosphorus availability in PyC. Future work is needed to investigate 1) the role of nano- or micro-sized PyC in the guts of soil fauna - nutrient uptake and function of the microbiome; 2) linking municipal biowaste to carbon sequestration; 3) improving efficiency in composting and vermicomposting; and 4) negative impacts on soil fauna such as earthworms. Knowledge of PyC in materials science, waste management and environmental microbiology offers opportunities to make breakthroughs in biowaste management and climate change mitigation.

How to cite: Sun, D.: Pyrogenic carbon from wildfire or from the laboratory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2442, 2022.

EGU22-2463 | Presentations | BG1.2

Role of human impact on fire history and vegetation succession in one of the oldest protected forests in Europe 

Niina Kuosmanen, Tuomas Aakala, and Heikki Seppä

Fire is naturally an integral part of the northern boreal forests dynamics. However, anthropogenic activity has greatly affected the fire history in Fennoscandia, especially during the last millennia and the effective fire suppression practically led to the absence of a natural fire regime in boreal forests in Finland. However, the changing climate conditions may increase the risk of severe fire events regardless of the fire management. Therefore, it is important to look into the long-term interactions between human impact, fire and vegetation succession in order to understand the possible future role of fire in boreal forests.

One of the oldest protected areas in Europe is located in Central Finland and provides a good opportunity to investigate the change from natural fire and vegetation dynamics to human controlled fire regime and the natural vegetation succession after cessation of the slash-and-burn cultivation. The site is known to have been under slash-and-burn cultivation until the beginning of the 19th century and the last known burnings were done in the 1840s after which the site has been left to natural succession. The site was partly protected in 1911 and it was included into national the old-growth forest reserve protection program in 1994.

In order to investigate the long-term natural fire history and the role of human impact in the fire and the vegetation dynamics during last 3000 years we collected peat cores covering from two small forest hollows from the Kuusmäki old-growth forests protected area. Macroscopic (> 150 µm) charcoal and Neurospora-fungal spores are used to reconstruct the fire history and pollen analysis is performed to reconstruct the long-term vegetation dynamics in the study area.

The preliminary results demonstrate an increase in charcoal abundance from 16th century suggesting increased fire activity and a more intensive period of slash and burn cultivation in the area until the beginning of the 19th century. The absence of charcoal during the last century suggests absence of fire after the cessation of slash and burn cultivation. These results together with the vegetation succession will be further discussed in the presentation.

How to cite: Kuosmanen, N., Aakala, T., and Seppä, H.: Role of human impact on fire history and vegetation succession in one of the oldest protected forests in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2463, 2022.

Paddy stubble burning is a major environmental issue that plagues the ambient air quality of the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Every year, during the post-monsoon season (October and November), approximately 17 million tons of paddy stubble are burnt openly in the fields of Punjab and Haryana. Over two months, this large-scale biomass burning results in persistent smog and severely perturbs the regional air quality. The emission of reactive gaseous pollutants like volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from this source drive the surface ozone and aerosol formation. However, there is a considerable knowledge gap regarding their identification, amounts and spatial distribution over North India. Widely used top-down global fire emission inventories like GFED, GFAS and FINN rely on the high-resolution MODIS and VIIRS satellite fire products. However, they are severely constrained by the missed fires, limited VOC speciation and uncertain biomass burnt calculations due to non-region-specific emission and land use parametrization factors. The current bottom-up emission estimates also have high uncertainties because of non-region-specific emission factors and burning practices. This work presents a new “hybrid” gridded emission inventory for paddy stubble burning over Punjab and Haryana in 2017 at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. First, the emission factors (EFs) of 77 VOCs were measured in smoke samples collected from the on-field paddy fires of Punjab. These were then combined with 1 km × 1 km stubble burning activity, constrained by annual crop production yields, regional rice cultivars, burning practices and satellite-detected fire radiative power. The results revealed that paddy stubble burning is a significant source of oxygenated VOCs like acetaldehyde (37.5±9.6 Ggy-1), 2-furaldehyde (37.1±12.5 Ggy-1), acetone (34.7±13.6 Ggy-1), and toxic VOCs like benzene (9.9±2.8 Ggy-1) and isocyanic acid (0.4±0.2 Ggy-1). These compounds are also significantly underestimated and unaccounted for by existing top-down and bottom-up emission inventories. Additionally, it was found that the emissions of NMVOC (346±65 Ggy-1), NOx (38±8 Ggy-1), NH3 (16±4 Ggy-1), PM2.5 (129±9 Ggy-1), GHG CO2 equivalents (22.1±3.7 Tgy-1) from paddy stubble were up to 20 times higher than the corresponding emissions from traffic and municipal waste burning over north-west India during October and November 2017. Mitigation of this source alone can yield massive air-quality climate co-benefits for more than 500 million people.

How to cite: Kumar, A., Hakkim, H., Sinha, B., and Sinha, V.: Gridded 1 km × 1 km emission inventory for paddy stubble burning emissions over north-west India constrained by measured emission factors of 77 VOCs and district-wise crop yield data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2565, 2022.

Biochar has become an accepted soil amendment due to its potential to improve soil properties and as a tool to increase carbon sequestration. The latter is based on its relatively high biochemical recalcitrance augmenting the slow C pool after its addition to soils. However, newer studies indicated that the longevity of biochar and naturally produced pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) in soils is lower than commonly assumed. Many of those studies are based on the determination of CO2 production changes or on the recovery of their isotopic labels in the soil after amendment of biochar or PyC incorporation. Most probably because of the lack of appropriate techniques to differentiate between the natural soil organic matter fraction and the added black carbon, only few reports are available which relate turn-over data with chemical alterations of biochar during aging or the impact of the latter on the quality of the total SOM pool.  In order to fill this gap, we applied virtual fractionation of SOM into different organic matter pools by different solid-state NMR techniques. Whereas the most common combines the determination of turnover rates via stable isotope techniques, an alternative approach takes advantage of different relaxation behavior of biochar and humified SOM. In both cases spectra can be calculated that show either the added biochar or the respective SOM.  In the frame of the present work, the concept and the potential of the two approaches will be explained by using examples studied in our laboratory.  With this, we intend to provide a further powerful tool which can lead to a better understanding of the biochemistry related to the transformation of PyC and biochar during aging and their subsequent integration into the soil organic matter fraction.

 

Acknowledgement: Financial support has been provided by the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), a body of the European Union, under Horizon2020, the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (Project 21217 Black to the future - biochar and compost as soil amendment)

How to cite: Knicker, H., Knicker, M., García de Castro Barragán, J. M., and Velasco-Molina, M.: NMR-spectroscopic virtual fractionation of soils mixed with pyrogenic carbon as a tool to separate chemical processes related to aging of pyrogenic carbon from those occurring during humification of soil organic matter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2603, 2022.

EGU22-2611 | Presentations | BG1.2 | Highlight

Present and future tropical fire risks associated with compound events 

Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Paulo M. Brando, Lucas Santos, Ludmila Rattis, Martin Hirschi, Mathias Hauser, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Jakob Zscheischler

Complex interactions between climate and land-use are altering the course of the fire regimes across the tropics. In Brazil, many recent peaks of burned area have co-occurred with extreme climate events, high deforestation rates and agricultural expansion. Particularly during compound dry and hot years, widespread fires have become increasingly common, and an intensification of the fire activity due to climate change may be already underway.

Based on a compound-event-oriented framework to assess fire risk, we provide evidence on the extent to which fire activity and the associated impacts could be constrained if anthropogenic global warming is limited. Here we quantify the nonlinear relationships between compound climate drivers and burned area across two main Brazilian biocultural heritage sites (Xingu and Pantanal) and estimate compound-event-related fire risks in terms of the occurrences of compound drivers beyond which the fire response becomes extreme.

Our results show that the exponential response of burned area to climate is well explained by compound events characterized by air dryness and precipitation deficits (high VPD and low precipitation) and that climate-change induced fire risks will increase due to the co-occurrence of drier and warmer climatic conditions under global warming. However, if global warming is constrained to +1.5°C instead of +3°C, the likelihood of fire risk can be reduced by ~11% in the case of the most prominent fire types (forest fires in Xingu and grassland fires in the Pantanal). We thus conclude that if we slow down the rate of warming and follow more sustainable uses of land, we might be able to prevent the crossing of tipping points and the consequent downward spiral of socio-environmental impacts that threatens these regions.

How to cite: Ribeiro, A. F. S., Brando, P. M., Santos, L., Rattis, L., Hirschi, M., Hauser, M., Seneviratne, S. I., and Zscheischler, J.: Present and future tropical fire risks associated with compound events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2611, 2022.

EGU22-3357 | Presentations | BG1.2

High concentrations of environmentally persistent free radicals in fire derived pyrogenic organic matter 

Gabriel Sigmund, Cristina Santin Nuno, Marc Pignitter, Nathalie Tepe, Stefan Helmut Doerr, and Thilo Hofmann

Fire derived pyrogenic organic matter / charcoal is a source of environmentally persistent free radicals, which are precursors of potentially harmful reactive oxygen species. We analyzed charcoal samples from ten wildfires, including crown as well as surface fires in boreal, temperate, subtropical and tropical climate regions. Concentrations of environmentally persistent free radicals in these samples were orders of magnitude higher than those found in soils or other “background” matrices, as measured via electron spin resonance spectroscopy. The highest concentrations were measured in woody charcoals that were highly carbonized. We also found that environmentally persistent free radicals remained unexpectedly stable in the field for at least 5 years.

More details can be found in our recently published article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00138-2

How to cite: Sigmund, G., Santin Nuno, C., Pignitter, M., Tepe, N., Doerr, S. H., and Hofmann, T.: High concentrations of environmentally persistent free radicals in fire derived pyrogenic organic matter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3357, 2022.

EGU22-3871 | Presentations | BG1.2

Projected changes in variability of fire weather in boreal regions under different levels of global warming 

Marianne T. Lund, Kalle Nordling, Astrid B. Gjelsvik, and Bjørn H. Samset

Recent years have seen unprecedented fire activity at Arctic latitudes, leading to severe consequences including unhealthy air quality in high latitude towns and cities. While wildfire occurrence and severity result from a complex interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors, weather is a key factor.

Weather conditions that promote high wildfire risk are characterized by the combination of high temperatures, little precipitation and low humidity, and often high winds. All of these can be affected by human-induced climate change and evidence is emerging that wildfire risk is already increasing in many regions. Such changes not only manifest as shifts in the means and extremes of the weather variables but can also be changes in the shape of their distributions. The importance of the full, regional Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of individual and aggregated variables, which contain information on expected weather not apparent from the distribution mean or tails, but through changes to their overall shape, for understanding climate risk has been broadly discussed in the literature. Furthermore, while simulations with regional climate models to derive such information are costly and time consuming, the advent of large ensembles of coupled climate model simulations has recently opened new opportunities.

Here we present a detailed characterization of the distribution and variability of weather variables conducive to wildfire risk across five high-latitude boreal regions in North America, Scandinavia and Russia. Building on methodology developed in Samset et al. (2019), we quantify the PDFs of daily data for a broad set of individual variables, as well as for the aggregate change expressed using the Canadian Fire Weather Index. Using ensembles of coupled simulations from two climate models (CanESM5 and MPI-ESM1-2) and two CMIP6 scenarios (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we consistently quantify the changes of regionally and seasonally resolved PDFs under different levels of global warming.  

Our results provide a comprehensive picture of the potential future changes in drivers of fire weather and wildfire risk in the pan-Arctic region and demonstrate the difference between regions. We also show how statistical descriptions combined with emulation of Earth System Model (ESM) information can offer an alternative pathway to resource demanding model runs, for rapidly translating science to user-oriented information.

How to cite: Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Gjelsvik, A. B., and Samset, B. H.: Projected changes in variability of fire weather in boreal regions under different levels of global warming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3871, 2022.

EGU22-3927 | Presentations | BG1.2

Siberian fire ignition caused by the dry lightning activity 

Jin-Soo Kim, Seung-Ki Min, Min-Gyu Seong, Daehyun Kim, Robert Holzworth, Ja-Ho Koo, Axel Timmermann, and Gabriela Schaepman-Strub

Wildfire activity in Siberia (60E-180E, 55N-80N) has been observed to be more frequent and stronger in recent years. To understand the underlying mechanism of the positive trend in the frequency and strength of wildfire events, especially the role of lightning, we analyzed the relationship among fire ignition, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), precipitation, and lightning flash density over Siberia using observations and reanalysis products for the period 2012–2020. A similar analysis was performed on an ultra-high-resolution (25-km) climate model simulation made with Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2 (CESM) under a greenhouse gas-induced warming scenario. In the observations, we found that while the number of lightning flashes is proportional to CAPE and precipitation, the number of fire ignition is only proportional to CAPE. In particular, we identified a threshold of 3.5 mm/day of precipitation, below which fire ignition occurs more frequently. Our analyses reveal that precipitation plays a role in suppressing fire ignition, but dry lightning with high CAPE and low precipitation effectively cause fire ignitions. In the CESM simulation, we found a robust increase in the number of days with high CAPE (> 700 J/kg) and low precipitation (< 3.5 mm/day), which suggests an increase in the frequency of dry lightning events, and therefore more lightning-induced wildfire events in Siberia.

How to cite: Kim, J.-S., Min, S.-K., Seong, M.-G., Kim, D., Holzworth, R., Koo, J.-H., Timmermann, A., and Schaepman-Strub, G.: Siberian fire ignition caused by the dry lightning activity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3927, 2022.

EGU22-4095 | Presentations | BG1.2

Emission characteristics of atmospheric pollutants from field-scale crop residue burning in Northeast China 

Lili Wang, Qinglu Wang, Miaomiao Cheng, Tianran Zhang, and Jinyuan Xin

Crop residue burning in china increased significantly in the last decade, especially it took up a majority in Northeast China, which plays an important role of severe haze pollution. Hence, two main types of crop residues (corn and rice straw) were chosen to characterize the particle number concentration, chemical components of fine particulate matter and optical properties of carbonaceous aerosols by a suite of fast-response online portable instruments, together with offline sampling and analysis, during the field-based combustion experiments in Northeast China. For the range of 0.25 and 2.5 µm, more particles were emitted from rice straw burning than those from corn straw burning, and the time-averaged number concentration of particles during the flaming process was approximately 2 times higher than that during the smoldering process for these two straws. Organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC) and water-soluble ions were the most abundant components and accounted for 42.5±7.5%, 7.7±1.7% and 18.0±3.4% of the PM2.5, respectively. Furthermore, rice straw burning emitted higher OC and lower Cl- and K+ than those from corn straw burning. The average absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) of carbonaceous aerosols was 2.1±0.3, while the AAE of brown carbon (BrC) was 4.7±0.4 during the whole burning process. On average, BrC contributed to 63% and 20% of the total light absorption at 375 nm and 625 nm, respectively. Parameterization of BrC absorption revealed that the fraction of absorption from BrC has a reasonably good correlation with EC/OC (-0.84) and AAE (0.94) at 375 nm. Generally, combustion conditions can affect the optical properties of carbonaceous aerosols, and a negative correlation (-0.77) was observed between the AAE and modified combustion efficiency; in addition, the percentage of absorption due to BrC were lower at the flaming phase. To explorer the spatial and temporal variability of open agricultural burning in Northeast China from 2014 to 2019, the emission inventory of key gaseous and particle pollutants was established, which derived from a combination of geostationary (Himawari) and polar (VIIRS) orbiter fire radiative power products. 

How to cite: Wang, L., Wang, Q., Cheng, M., Zhang, T., and Xin, J.: Emission characteristics of atmospheric pollutants from field-scale crop residue burning in Northeast China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4095, 2022.

EGU22-4271 | Presentations | BG1.2

Forest fire risk assessment with soil data in Croatia 

Diana Škurić Kuraži, Ivana Nižetić Kosović, and Ivana Herceg Bulić

Forest fire research can comprise forest fire case studies, laboratory experiments, fire detection by ground sensors, unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites, development of fire behaviour models, fire danger forecast, fire risk assessment, and much more. Commonly used and accepted Canadian method for forest fire danger forecast is expressed as Fire Weather Index (FWI) uses weather data. The index estimates the danger of wildfire and is based on meteorological parameters (air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and rainfall amount) referring to 12 UTC for that day at the meteorological station or on a numerical weather prediction model grid point.

Knowing how weather and soil interact and affect each other, we propose a new fire risk index based on the innovative Soil Index. Using open-access data, we collected different soil data such as soil temperature and soil moisture, land cover, vegetation, slope, etc. Since there are different types of vegetation and states, Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are considered as well. Being focused on forest fires, data about the burned area were also taken into account as well as the slope of the terrain for which the fire risk is calculated.

Since all mentioned data have a diverse horizontal and temporal resolution, we decided to group them by temporal resolution: static, semi-static, and dynamic data. Static data refers to data that rarely change (never or every few years; e.g. land cover). Semi-static data refers to data that vary weekly or monthly (e.g. LAI). Dynamic data group refers to data that is strongly influenced by weather conditions (like soil temperature) and varies every hour. Because of various horizontal resolutions, soil parameters are interpolated to the same horizontal grid. Soil parameters are analysed concerning historical forest fires in Croatia. Despite Soil Index being based on soil parameters, we compared it with Fire Weather Index using data records for historical forest fires in Croatia. Obtained results indicate that the soil index has a better prediction performance compared to FWI. This study also highlights that not only the meteorological environment but also soil conditions are important parameters for fire risk assessment.

How to cite: Škurić Kuraži, D., Nižetić Kosović, I., and Herceg Bulić, I.: Forest fire risk assessment with soil data in Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4271, 2022.

EGU22-4394 | Presentations | BG1.2

Fire aerosols slow down the global water cycle 

Fang Li, David Lawrence, Yiquan Jiang, and Xiaohong Liu

Fire is an important Earth system process and the largest source of global primary carbonaceous aerosols. Earlier studies have focused on the influence of fire aerosols on radiation, surface climate, air quality, and biogeochemical cycle. The impact of fire aerosols on the global water cycle has not been quantified and related mechanisms remain largely unclear. This study provides the first quantitative assessment and understanding of the influence of fire aerosols on the global water cycle. This is done by quantifying the difference between simulations with and without fire aerosols using the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show that presentday fire aerosols weaken the global water cycle significantly. They decrease the continental precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff by 4.1±1.8, 2.5±0.5, and 1.5±1.4 ×103 km3 yr-1 as well as ocean evaporation, precipitation, and water vapor transport from ocean to land by 8.1±1.9, 6.6±2.3, and 1.5±1.4 ×103 km3 yr-1. The impacts of fire aerosols are most clearly seen in the tropics and the Arctic-boreal zone. Fire aerosols affect the global water cycle mainly by cooling the surface which reduces ocean evaporation, land soil evaporation and plant transpiration. The decreased water vapor load in the atmosphere leads to a decrease in precipitation, which contributes to reduced surface runoff and sub-surface drainage.

How to cite: Li, F., Lawrence, D., Jiang, Y., and Liu, X.: Fire aerosols slow down the global water cycle, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4394, 2022.

EGU22-4551 | Presentations | BG1.2

Fire prevents the regrowth of the Amazon rainforest after complete deforestation in a fire-enabled Earth system model 

Markus Drüke, Werner von Bloh, Boris Sakschewski, Wolfgang Lucht, and Kirsten Thonicke

The terrestrial biosphere is exposed to land use and anthropogenic climate change, which not only affects vegetation dynamics, but also changes land-atmosphere feedbacks. In particular, tropical rainforests are endangered by anthropogenic activities and are recognized as one of the terrestrial tipping elements. An ecosystem regime change to a new state could have profound impacts on regional and global climate, once the biome has transitioned from a forest into a savanna or grassland state. Fire is a potentially major driver in the position of the transition boundary and could hence impact the dynamic equilibrium between these possible vegetation states under a changing climate. However, systematic tests of fire-controlled tipping points and hysteretic behaviour using comprehensive Earth system models are still lacking.

Here, we specifically test the recovery of the Amazon rainforest after a complete deforestation at different atmospheric CO2 levels, by using the Earth system model CM2Mc-LPJmL v1.0 with a state-of-the-art representation of vegetation dynamics and fire. We find that fire prevents large-scale forest regrowth after complete deforestation and locks large parts of the Amazon in a stable grassland state. While slightly elevated atmospheric CO2 values had beneficial effects on the forest regrowth efficiency due to the fertilization effect, larger CO2 amounts further hampered the regrowth due to increasing heat stress. In a no-fire control experiment the Amazon rainforest recovered after 250 years to nearly its original extent at various atmospheric CO2 forcing levels. This study highlights the potential of comprehensive fire-enabled Earth system models to investigate and quantify tipping points and their feedback on regional and global climate.

How to cite: Drüke, M., von Bloh, W., Sakschewski, B., Lucht, W., and Thonicke, K.: Fire prevents the regrowth of the Amazon rainforest after complete deforestation in a fire-enabled Earth system model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4551, 2022.

EGU22-4571 | Presentations | BG1.2

Molecular characterisation of soil organic matter under different burned vegetation canopies 

Nicasio T. Jiménez-Morillo, Ana Z. Miller, Nuno Guiomar, José M. De la Rosa, Cristina Barrocas-Dias, Ana Manhita, and José A. González-Pérez

Forest fires are a recurrent ecological phenomenon in the Mediterranean basin. They induce molecular changes in soil organic matter (SOM) leading to immediate and long-term environmental consequences [1]. The SOM is of paramount importance as indicator of soil health [2]. Fire-induced changes in SOM include the alteration of biogenic chemical structures and the accumulation of newly formed ones, enhancing dynamics in the complex balance between the different C-types [2,3]. Therefore, understanding SOM molecular composition, before and after fire, is fundamental to monitor changes in soil health, as well as its natural or man-mediated recovery [3,4]. Our aim was to assess the molecular composition of organic matter in fire-affected leptosols, at two depths (0–2 and 2–5 cm) under different vegetation types located in the southwestern of Portugal (Aljezur, Algarve). The SOM characterization was conducted by analytical pyrolysis (Py-GC/MS), a technique based on the thermochemical breakdown of organic compounds in the absence of oxygen at elevated temperatures [5]. The Py-GC/MS has been found suitable for the structural characterization of complex organic matrices [4], providing detailed structural information of individual compounds considered fingerprinting of SOM. However, due to the relative high number of molecular compounds released by analytical pyrolysis, the use of graphical-statistical methods, such as van Krevelen diagrams, are usually applied to help monitoring SOM molecular changes produced by fire [3,4]. This work represents the first attempt to evaluate the fire effects in SOM using a detailed molecular characterisation of SOM under different vegetation canopies, recently affected by wildfire, in southern Portugal.

 

References:

[1] Naveh, Z., 1990. Fire in the Mediterranean – a landscape ecological perspective. In: Goldammer, J.G., Jenkins, M.J. (Eds.), Fire in Ecosystems Dynamics: Mediterranean and Northern Perspective. SPB Academic Publishing, The Hague.

[2] González-Pérez, J.A., González-Vila, F.J., Almendros, G., Knicker, H., 2004. The effect of fire on soil organic matter—a review. Environ. Int. 30, 855–870.

[3] Jiménez-Morillo, N.T., De la Rosa, J.M., Waggoner, D., et al., 2016. Fire effects in the molecular structure of soil organic matter fractions under Quercus suber cover. Catena 145, 266–273.

[4] Jiménez-Morillo, N.T.; Almendros, G.; De la Rosa, J.M.; et al., 2020. Effect of a wildfire and of post-fire restoration actions in the organic matter structure in soil fractions. Sci. Total Environ. 728, 138715.

[5] Irwin, W.J., 1982. Analytical pyrolysis—a comprehensive guide. In: Cazes, J. (Ed.), Chromatographic Science Series, 22: Chapter 6. Marcel Dekker, New York.

 

Acknowledgments: This work was funded by national funds through FCT–Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (EROFIRE project, ref. PCIF-RPG-0079-2018). This research was funded by the European Union through the European Regional Development Funds in the framework of the Interreg V A Spain-Portugal program (POCTEP) through the CILIFO (Ref.: 0753_CILIFO_5_E) and FIREPOCTEP (Ref.: 0756_FIREPOCTEP_6_E) projects. In addition, this research was funded by the EU-FEDER co-funded project MARKFIRE (ref. P20_01073) from Junta de Andalucía. A.Z.M was supported by a CEECIND/01147/2017 contract from FCT, and a Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC2019-026885-I) from the Spanish Government (Ministerio de Ciencia en Innovación – MCIN).

How to cite: Jiménez-Morillo, N. T., Miller, A. Z., Guiomar, N., De la Rosa, J. M., Barrocas-Dias, C., Manhita, A., and González-Pérez, J. A.: Molecular characterisation of soil organic matter under different burned vegetation canopies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4571, 2022.

EGU22-4831 | Presentations | BG1.2

Influence of Atmospheric Teleconnections on Interannual Variability of Arctic-boreal Fires 

Zhiyi Zhao, Zhongda Lin, Fang Li, and Brendan M. Rogers

Fires across the Arctic-boreal zone (ABZ) play an important role in the boreal forest succession, permafrost thaw, and the regional and global carbon cycle and climate. These fires occur mainly in summer with large interannual variability. Previous studies primarily focused on the impacts of local surface climate and tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study, for the first time, comprehensively investigates the influence of summer leading large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics on interannual variability of ABZ fires. We use correlation and regression analysis of 1997–2019 multiple satellite-based products of burned area and observed/reanalyzed climate data. Results show that eight leading teleconnection patterns significantly affect 63±2% of burned areas across the ABZ. Western North America is affected by the East Pacific/North Pacific pattern (EP/NP) and the West Pacific pattern (WP); boreal Europe by the Scandinavia pattern (SCA); eastern North America, western and central Siberia, and southeastern Siberia by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and eastern Siberia /Russian Far East by the East Atlantic pattern (EA). NAO/EA induces lower-tropospheric drier northwesterly/northerly airflow passing through the east of boreal North America/Eurasia, which decreases surface relative humidity. Other teleconnections trigger a high-pressure anomaly, forcing downward motion that suppresses cloud formation and increases solar radiation reaching the ground to warm the surface air as well as brings drier air downward to reduce surface relative humidity. The drier and/or warmer surface air can decrease fuel wetness and thus increase burned area. Our study highlights the important role of the extra-tropical teleconnection patterns on ABZ fires, which is much stronger than ENSO that was thought to control interannual variability of global fires. It also establishes a theoretical foundation for ABZ fire prediction based on extra-tropical teleconnections, and has the potential to facilitate ABZ fire prediction and management.

How to cite: Zhao, Z., Lin, Z., Li, F., and Rogers, B. M.: Influence of Atmospheric Teleconnections on Interannual Variability of Arctic-boreal Fires, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4831, 2022.

EGU22-4922 | Presentations | BG1.2 | Highlight

Development of an arctic-boreal fire atlas using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data 

Rebecca Scholten, Yang Chen, James Randerson, and Sander Veraverbeke

Intensifying wildfires in high-latitude forest and tundra ecosystems are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, releasing carbon through direct combustion and long-term degradation of permafrost soils and peatlands. Several remotely sensed burned area and active fire products have been developed, yet these do not provide information about the ignitions, growth and size of individual fires. Such object-based fire data is urgently needed to disentangle different anthropogenic and bioclimatic drivers of fire ignition and spread. This knowledge is required to better understand contemporary arctic-boreal fire regimes and to constrain models that predict changes in future arctic-boreal fire regimes. 
Here, we developed an object-based fire tracking system to map the evolution of arctic-boreal fires at a sub-daily scale. Our approach harnesses the improved spatial resolution of 375m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fire detections. The arctic-boreal fire atlas includes ignitions and daily perimeters of individual fires between 2012 and 2021, and may be complemented in the future with information on waterbodies, unburned islands, fuel types and fire severity within fire perimeters. 

How to cite: Scholten, R., Chen, Y., Randerson, J., and Veraverbeke, S.: Development of an arctic-boreal fire atlas using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4922, 2022.

EGU22-5199 | Presentations | BG1.2

Global changes, fire and spruce-forest dynamics in Québec-Labrador during the Holocene. 

Jonathan Lesven, Milva Druguet-Dayras, Laurent Millet, Adam Ali, Yves Bergeron, André Arsenault, François Gillet, and Damien Rius

Context

Boreal ecosystems provide numerous goods and services essential to human activities, such as wood and paper supply or the regulation of natural phenomena (floods, diseases) (Hassan et al., 2005). They also play a major role in the global climate balance, storing ~32% of the world's biogenic carbon (Pan et al., 2011; Bradshaw, 2015). Their dynamics are also intrinsically linked to fire activity, main disturbance driver in North American boreal forests (Kuuluvainen and Aakala, 2011), mainly controlled by climate-vegetation interactions (Ali et al., 2012). Under global warming, recent work predicts an increase of fire regimes, and a potential shift of the carbon sink function (Walker et al., 2019). However, Labrador and eastern Quebec regions remain poorly studied on multimillennial time scales. This study provides new insights on fire-climate-vegetation interactions in eastern Canadian forests, allowing us to better characterize the mechanisms by which climate change impacts fire regimes, and consequently forest structure and functioning.

 

Material and methods

To cover a wide range of fire-climate-vegetation interactions, this study is based on a North-South transect of 5 lacustrine sediment cores, covering the last 6,000 to 10,000 years across Quebec and Labrador regions. Chronologies were based on 210Pb/137Cs and 14C dating. Finally, to reconstruct local fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and climatic fluctuations during the Holocene, our study is based respectively on macrocharcoals (≥ 150 µm), pollen grains and chironomids assemblages.

 

Results and Discussion

Our study reveals that black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.)) is the dominant species across the transect, but its proportion varies greatly, and is marked by a codominance with balsam fir in the south and with green alder in the north. In the south (white birch fir stand and spruce-lichen woodlands bioclimatic domains), our results show a high frequency but relatively low fire sizes during the warmest and driest periods, such as the Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO), followed by a reverse trend during the coldest and wettest periods such as the Neoglacial Period (NG), probably due to a longer fuel accumulation time promoting larger fires (Carcaillet et al., 2001). In the North (forest tundra bioclimatic domain), the HCO is marked by the absence of fire, whereas the NP is characterised by a strong increase in fire frequency, related to the progressive increase of black spruce after the deglaciation. Despite this north-south contrast, possibly related to the impact of the Atlantic Ocean, all sequences show an increase in both fire frequency and size after the industrial revolution, inducing a major change in vegetation trajectory towards more open environments marked by an increase in pioneer taxa.

 

Conclusion

During the Holocene, climate change induced variations in fire regimes in eastern Canada, but show spatial differences explained by black spruce dynamics and moisture inputs. Our study also reveals that temperature rises over the last 150 years have led to an increase in the frequency and size of fires and consequently to a progressive opening of the environment. This could ultimately alter the carbon sink function of boreal forests in the future (Bastianelli et al., 2017).

How to cite: Lesven, J., Druguet-Dayras, M., Millet, L., Ali, A., Bergeron, Y., Arsenault, A., Gillet, F., and Rius, D.: Global changes, fire and spruce-forest dynamics in Québec-Labrador during the Holocene., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5199, 2022.

EGU22-5320 | Presentations | BG1.2

Accounting for the impact of slope on fire spread in a dynamic global vegetation model 

Luke Oberhagemann, Markus Drueke, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Boris Sakschewski, Henning Rust, and Kirsten Thonicke

Fire modelling incorporated into global dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) allows for the projection of changes to fire-related biogeophysical and biogechemical processes under future climate scenarios, including anthropogenic climate change. Due to the large grid sizes often required to efficiently model fire and vegetation dynamics in a global manner, fire-enabled DGVMs generally neglect some finer-scale effects, including slope. However, slope can have a significant impact on the spread of individual fires and, therefore, the global area burned. As a fire moves uphill, the angle of flames is better suited to heating nearby fuel, thus increasing the rate of spread relative to fires on level ground. In this study, we apply a function to account for the impact of slope on fire spread in the SPITFIRE model incorporated into the LPJmL5.3 DGVM to improve the calculation of fire-related processes, including burnt area. We aggregate slope data across a grid cell to account for the impact of slope in a general way appropriate to the  grid size used in SPITFIRE. Our approach, while focused on the SPITFIRE model, may also be applicable to other DGVM-based fire models.

How to cite: Oberhagemann, L., Drueke, M., Billing, M., von Bloh, W., Sakschewski, B., Rust, H., and Thonicke, K.: Accounting for the impact of slope on fire spread in a dynamic global vegetation model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5320, 2022.

Fires play a critical role in global biogeochemical and hydrological cycles through influencing vegetation succession and ecosystem functioning. Observational evidence shows that fire regimes across global ecosystems have been altered by climate change and human activities. However, most fire-enabled terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) poorly capture the spatial and temporal patterns of fire ignitions, burned area, vegetation mortality and post-fire recovery. To improve our ability in predicting fire behavior and its impacts on the ecosystem and climate, it is essential to better represent fire-vegetation interactions in TBMs. Here, we improve the fire module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-Fire) and optimize the parameters by using the satellite observed fire ignitions, burned area and leaf area index (LAI) products. Our results show that the improved fire model can describe the magnitude, spatial patterns, and interannual variations of burned area and vegetation mortality more accurately. Moreover, the model is capable of providing robust estimations of post-fire vegetation regeneration to characterize the vegetation resistance and resilience to fire disturbances. This study emphasizes the importance of integrating terrestrial biosphere models and satellite observation data for fire monitoring and prediction.

How to cite: Li, X., Tian, H., Yang, J., You, Y., and Pan, S.: Understanding and quantifying fire-vegetation interactions through integrating satellite observation data with the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5893, 2022.

EGU22-6512 | Presentations | BG1.2

Likely future(s) of global wildfires 

Douglas I Kelley, Camilla Mathison, Chantelle Burton, Megan Brown, Andrew Sullivan, Elaine Baker, and Tiina Kurvits

We show likely substantial increases in burning by 2100 in Boreal and Tropical Forests irrespective of future emissions and after accounting for the (often considerable) uncertainties and biases in global fire and climate modelling. Rather than projecting future fire regimes directly, we used the ConFire Bayesian framework to model the likelihood of all possible future burning levels given historic fire and climate model performance. Driving the framework with bias-corrected outputs from four ISIMIP2b GCMs run under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 accounts for uncertainties in future emissions and climate model projections. 

While we forecast the potential for substantial shifts in fire regimes of much of the world by the end of the century, many show low likelihood given our confidence in the fire, vegetation and climate model projections. Tropical savannas show the largest potential for change, though without confidence in the direction of change due to uncertainty in future precipitation projections.  An increase in dry fuel drives an increase in burnt area in northern Australia. However, this is not significant against uncertainty associated with present-day veg/fire model performance. There is a significant agreement for decreased burning in Southern Brazil, Uruguay and northern Argentina, and the US east coast under RCP2.6, but not RCP6.0.

We do show a high likelihood of drying fuel loads driving an increase in burning in Indonesia, Southern Amazon, central and eastern Siberian Taiga and many Arctic areas across RCPs. These areas are of particular concern given the potential to release the high carbon content of forests and peatlands irrecoverable carbon. Mitigating from RCP6.0 to 2.6 will likely alleviate some though not all of this burning. This is important for future mitigation planning and determining likely temperature and emission targets to avoid the worst impacts of fire in our warmer world.

How to cite: Kelley, D. I., Mathison, C., Burton, C., Brown, M., Sullivan, A., Baker, E., and Kurvits, T.: Likely future(s) of global wildfires, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6512, 2022.

EGU22-6549 | Presentations | BG1.2

Remote sensing of tropical vegetation properties in response to fire return time 

Ramesh K. Ningthoujam, Nayane Cristina Candida dos Santos Prestes, Marcelo Feitosa de Andrade, Maria Antonia Carniello, Corli Wigley Coetsee, Mark E. Harrison, Kitso Kusin, Azad Rasul, Agata Hoscilo, Adam Pellegrini, Imma Oliveras, Ted R. Feldpausch, Susan Page, Keith J. Bloomfield, Sandy P. Harrison, and Iain Colin Prentice

Fire modifies vegetation spectral reflectances in the optical, thermal and microwave domains due to the changes it induces in vegetation canopy components (leaves, needles, branches) and in soil properties. Freely available satellite-derived (Landsat) Vegetation Indices (VIs) and PALSAR Mosaic backscatter measurements (known to be sensitive to vegetation structure) were used to help understand vegetation properties (species richness, basal area) in relation to fire return time (FRT) across a range of tropical biomes (open savanna, savanna forest, evergreen forest, peat-swamp forest) in Mato Grosso (Brazil), Kruger National Park (South Africa) and Central Kalimantan (Indonesia).

For each site, we combined: (i) post-fire Landsat imagery (30 m) to derive VIs sensitive to vegetation diversity with (ii) PALSAR (25 m) backscatter that employes a longer wavelength (21 cm) and dual polarisation (Horizontal-Horizontal, Horizontal-Vertical) enabling the capture of strong backscattering of signal by branches and trunks.

Most of the Landsat VI values showed greater variability in forests compared to open savanna, reflecting the greater diversity in species’ composition and growth form. A strong positive relationship was found between VIs and FRT across biomes and especially in forests. The amount of vegetation burned per fire as recorded by the magnitude of changes in these VIs, was highest in annual burn regimes (FRT = 1 year). Green and red-edge bands provided better discrimination of vegetation species richness and basal area. A significant positive relationship to basal area in response to fire return time was also found using PALSAR data due to its deeper canopy penetration level and strong backscattering from woody components. The observed responses of VI- and PALSAR-inferred species’ richness and basal area in response to FRT in different tropical biomes suggest that the green and red-edge channels from optical and longer wavelength HV-backscatter are useful metrics to quantify post-fire tropical vegetation dynamics.

How to cite: Ningthoujam, R. K., Prestes, N. C. C. D. S., Andrade, M. F. D., Carniello, M. A., Coetsee, C. W., Harrison, M. E., Kusin, K., Rasul, A., Hoscilo, A., Pellegrini, A., Oliveras, I., Feldpausch, T. R., Page, S., Bloomfield, K. J., Harrison, S. P., and Prentice, I. C.: Remote sensing of tropical vegetation properties in response to fire return time, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6549, 2022.

Ever-increasing wildfires in scale and duration have resulted in enormous human and material losses, and adverse health outcomes due to short- and long-term exposure to diverse air pollutants emitted from fires. Historically, the Mediterranean Basin, characterized by hot and dry summers, has been particularly affected by wildfires, and the situation is deteriorating as climate change worsens and the regional populations grow rapidly. To assess the health impacts due to short-term exposure to air pollution caused by the 2021 summer wildfires in eastern and central Mediterranean Basin, we demonstrate a multi-pollutant approach based on the Weather Research and Forecasting online-coupled Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. The WRF-Chem model was used to simulate concentrations of major air pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5), SO2, NO2, and O3, in a fire and no-fire scenario. Elevated short-term exposure of the population to air pollutants were associated with excess all-cause mortality using relative risks (RRs) for individual pollutants based on previously published meta-analyses.

Our estimates indicate that the additional short-term exposure to O3, which is predicted to increase due to the wildfires, resulted in the highest number of excess deaths of 608 (95% CI: 456-771) over the entire region of investigation during the wildfire season between mid-July to early October 2021. This is followed by 270 (95% CI: 177- 370) excess deaths due to elevated PM2.5 exposure, rendering the health effect of increased O3 from wildfires larger than the effect of increased PM2.5. This is shown to be largely reasoned by the spatially more widespread impact of wildfires on O3. In contrast, the excess mortality caused by NO2 and SO2 emitted from wildfires is estimated low. This may be ascribed to the different sources of air pollutants, with NO2 a marker of traffic, while SO2 originating primarily from emissions from fossil fuel combustion, e.g., from power plants. Our study concludes with a discussion on uncertainties associated with the multi-pollutant health impact assessment and suggests a critical scrutiny of estimates based thereupon.

How to cite: Zhou, B. and Knote, C.: Multi-pollutant assessment of health impacts of 2021 summer wildfires in eastern and central Mediterranean Basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7258, 2022.

EGU22-7318 | Presentations | BG1.2

Evaluating the effects of fire severity and post-fire management decisions on the carbon balance of a Swedish forest 

Julia Kelly, Stefan H. Doerr, Johan Ekroos, Theresa S. Ibáñez, Cristina Santín, Margarida Soares, and Natascha Kljun

Boreal forest fires are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. Yet there is little knowledge on the impacts of fire severity and post-fire management decisions on the regeneration and carbon balance of production forests in Eurasia. To investigate these issues, we established 6 sites in a Swedish Pinus sylvestris forest that burned in 2018. Specifically, we evaluated the effects of (i) fire severity (low severity ground fire vs high severity stand-replacing canopy fire), (ii) post-fire wood management (salvage-logged vs unlogged) and (iii) post-fire vegetation management (natural regeneration, seeding or planting nursery seedlings of P. sylvestris). At each site, we measured soil respiration (CO2 release to the atmosphere) and methane fluxes (soil CH4 uptake) using the manual chamber approach, soil microclimate and vegetation cover for the first 3 years after the fire (2019-2021). Two of the sites also have eddy covariance flux measurements, which provided an insight into the ecosystem-scale carbon balance.

 

Fire severity had a strong impact on forest soils, with high fire severity sites having lower soil respiration, warmer soils and less vegetation regrowth compared to a low fire severity site. Surprisingly, soil respiration was similar at a low fire severity site and unburnt site, despite the almost complete loss of the soil organic layer during the ground fire. There were no clear effects of fire or post-fire management on the soil methane fluxes. Salvage-logging of a high fire severity site had no additional effects on soil respiration compared to leaving the dead trees standing. Salvage-logging of a low fire severity site led to a decline in soil respiration, but turned the ecosystem into a net source of CO2 due to the removal of the living trees. In terms of P. sylvestris regeneration, our results showed that the seedling density following natural regeneration was similar to or higher than the seedling density in sites which had been manually seeded or replanted with nursery seedlings.

 

Our results suggest that post-fire management interventions may not facilitate faster vegetation regrowth and the recovery of carbon uptake by forests compared to natural regeneration in the immediate post-fire years. Furthermore, despite the start of new vegetation growth and declines in soil CO2 release, the high fire severity and/or salvage-logged sites remain net CO2 sources 3 years after the fire, which must be considered in estimations of the net effect of fires on Sweden’s forest carbon balance.

How to cite: Kelly, J., Doerr, S. H., Ekroos, J., Ibáñez, T. S., Santín, C., Soares, M., and Kljun, N.: Evaluating the effects of fire severity and post-fire management decisions on the carbon balance of a Swedish forest, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7318, 2022.

EGU22-7457 | Presentations | BG1.2

Evaluation of simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum with fire-enabled vegetation models from the FireMIP intercomparison project 

Paul Lincoln, Sandy P. Harrison, Matthew Forrest, Jed Kaplan, and Chao Yue

Fire-enabled vegetation models are an important component of earth system modelling. Understanding the sensitivity of vegetation and wildfire to climate change benefits from out-of-sample experiments, of which the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) is a preferred test. Here, we compared wildfire simulations for the LGM made with four fire-enabled vegetation models using a standardized protocol and driven by a climate-model simulation of the response to known LGM changes in ice-sheet extent, atmospheric composition and insolation. We compare the resulting model output with inferred changes in fire based on charcoal records from the Reading Palaeofire Database (RPD).

All four models show a global decrease in fire at the LGM compared to the present day, consistent with the charcoal records which also record less fire. The simulated change in fire is driven principally by changes in vegetation cover at the LGM, particularly the shift from forest to more open vegetation. The simulated reduction in forest cover is consistent with pollen-based reconstructions of LGM vegetation. Despite this general agreement among models, there are differences between the simulated fire anomalies at a regional scale. The largest differences between the models occur in equatorial Africa, South America and East Asia where the amplitude and spatial extent of regions of increased fire (driven principally by the replacement of tropical trees by grassland); in some regions even the direction of change is not consistent. Comparison of the simulated changes with charcoal records from these regions identifies which model(s) perform best, but also make it clear that there is no one model that simulates observed patterns of change in fire across all of the regions.

How to cite: Lincoln, P., Harrison, S. P., Forrest, M., Kaplan, J., and Yue, C.: Evaluation of simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum with fire-enabled vegetation models from the FireMIP intercomparison project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7457, 2022.

EGU22-8312 | Presentations | BG1.2

Pyrogenic carbon in temperate forests - long-lasting impact of historical charcoal production on soils and ecosystems 

Alexander Bonhage, Thomas Raab, Anna Schneider, Alexandra Raab, Shaghayegh Ramezany, and William Ouimet

Pre- and early industrial charcoal production has left a striking legacy effect on today’s soil landscapes in many forests of Central Europe and the North Eastern USA. Charcoaling in upright standing hearths (also called kilns) resulted in distinct circular micro relief structures, easily identifiable today in the field and on high resolution LiDAR-based digital elevation maps. Soils on these sites are characterized by one or multiple layers of decimetre thick charcoal rich substrate, which makes them Spolic Technosols according to the WRB soil classification. The focus of research on these sites increasingly deals with the difference of their soil physical and chemical properties in relation to unaffected forest soils and the potential implications for changes in vegetation and faunal growth. The controlling factor thereby is the soils large content of charcoal in various particle sizes, ranging from fine dust to large chunks. Studies have repeatedly shown the soils significant increase in total organic- and pyrogenic carbon content. The increase in total carbon stocks is thereby not only caused by pyrogenic carbon, but also by an apparently increased accumulation of non-pyrogenic organic matter. Here we present the latest findings regarding the carbon contents of centennially old charcoal rich technogenic substrates, sampled as part of multiple research projects in Brandenburg, Germany and the Litchfield hills in North-western Connecticut, USA. A focus will be the determination of highly aromatic carbon by the molecular marker Benzene-polycarboxylic acid (BPCA) and its prediction by FTIR-MIR chemometric methods. We discuss the results on forest soil carbon stocks on a site specific to a landscape and regional scale. Furthermore, the potential to use these sites to study the long term effects of charcoal admixture to soils by wildfires or biochar application will be discussed.  

How to cite: Bonhage, A., Raab, T., Schneider, A., Raab, A., Ramezany, S., and Ouimet, W.: Pyrogenic carbon in temperate forests - long-lasting impact of historical charcoal production on soils and ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8312, 2022.

EGU22-8737 | Presentations | BG1.2

Fire variability in the southeastern France over the past 8500 years 

Marion Genet, Anne-Laure Daniau, Maria-Angela Bassetti, Bassem Jalali, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Julien Azuara, and Serge Berné

The Mediterranean region is strongly impacted by fires at present day. Projected warming scenarios suggest increase fire risk in the Mediterranean region (Pechony et Shindell, 2010). However, models based on modern-day statistical relationships do not consider interactions between climate, vegetation, and fire. In addition, process-based models must be tested not only against modern observations but also against climate observations different from today to cover the range of climate variability projected for the next centuries. Here, we present a new biomass burning record for the last 8,500 years in southeastern France with a mean temporal resolution of 45 years based on a marine sedimentary microcharcoal from the Gulf of Lion, located in the Rhone River prodelta. Periodicities of 500 and 1,100 years emerge from this record. Most of the peaks coincide with cold and dry periods of several century duration reflecting enhanced burning of open evergreen sclerophyllous Mediterranean forests. Among the 15 peaks of biomass burning, 7 are associated with negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, 8 with cold events, and 13 with low solar activity. We suggest that cold and wet conditions during negative NAO led to the accumulation of biomass while dry and cold winds during negative East Atlantic (EA) phase favored fuel flammability resulting in peaks in biomass burning. Today, large fires in southeastern France occur during negative NAO or during the Atlantic Ridge weather regime, the latter being similar to the EA (Ruffault et al. 2017). The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather favoring the largest wildfires observed in recent years in the Mediterranean region is projected to increase under global warming (Ruffault et al., 2020). Our study suggests also that the French Mediterranean region might be affected by large wind-driven fires developing in the event of negative NAO and EA modes.

 

References

Ruffault et al., 2017 Daily synoptic conditions associated with large fire occurrence in Mediterranean France: evidence for a wind-driven fire regime. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0559-5

Ruffault et al., 2020. Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.09.896878

Pechony et Shindell, 2010. Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1003669107

How to cite: Genet, M., Daniau, A.-L., Bassetti, M.-A., Jalali, B., Sicre, M.-A., Azuara, J., and Berné, S.: Fire variability in the southeastern France over the past 8500 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8737, 2022.

EGU22-8767 | Presentations | BG1.2

The Impacts of the 2017 Catastrophic Fire Season in Portugal on Vegetation Productivity 

Tiago Ermitão, Célia Gouveia, and Ana Russo

Wildfires have become a serious threat to ecosystems and human society over the last years of the 21st century, with many hectares being destroyed every year globally. The lengthening of the fire seasons and the increase of wildfires risk, which have been promoted by climate change, input many losses on society, economy and mostly in diverse ecosystems. In Portugal, the 2017 catastrophic fire season burned more than 450,000 hectares and caused the death of more than 100 people. In this context, relying on remotely sense products from MODIS collections, our study proposes an analysis of the effect of summer heat and water availability deficit in vegetation productivity decline that led to large fires propagation, especially in June and October of 2017. With the aim to evaluate the magnitude of the impact that compound or cascading extreme events had on the vegetation productivity decline, considering the 2001-2019 historical values, we defined three different classes of pixels that should reflect the conditions before the fire: affected by hot, by dry or by hot/dry conditions. Moreover, we assess the influence of favourable winter/spring meteorological conditions on enhancing vegetation productivity that promote high fuel accumulations susceptible to burn some months later. Our results reinforce the water and energy dependency of the vegetation of the region during the growing season and highlight that the combination of higher temperatures and water availability in spring can trigger summer wildfires propagation, flammability and intensity due to the accumulation of biomass. Considering that the example of 2017 can be more recurrent under the context of climate change, this study also highlights the need to improve the awareness strategies in fire prone regions like Portugal, especially on biomass accumulation control during growing season.

This study was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project FIRECAST (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017) and IMPECAF (PTDC/CTA-CLI/28902/2017).

How to cite: Ermitão, T., Gouveia, C., and Russo, A.: The Impacts of the 2017 Catastrophic Fire Season in Portugal on Vegetation Productivity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8767, 2022.

Fire danger rating systems (FDRS) are widely used for many purposes from planning for daily deployment of fire suppression resources to the evaluation of fire management strategies. FDRS can also be incorporated in different types of models to assess the short and long-term effects of specific fire regimes and fire management policies.

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) is one of the most known FDRS’s, being extensively used for a fire early warning in several regions around the world, namely in Europe. The CFFWIS includes a set of 6 indices, based on meteorological data, which is used to predict fire weather danger and fire behavior over regions under study. To obtain a reliable assessment of the fire danger based on the CFFWIS it is crucial to determine the threshold values for each class of the CFFWIS sub-indices over different regions. One of the simplest methods to define the classes is to use percentiles based on historical data, but this method lacks information regarding wildfire history and its relation to CFFWIS sub-indices.

The proposed method is based on Fire Radiative Energy (FRE) released by fires, computed from Fire Radiative Power (FRP) product, that is generated, and disseminated in near real-time by EUMETSAT Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility. Since FRP estimates the radiative power emitted by a fire, it can be linked to fuel burned amounts and used as a proxy of fire intensity. By integrating FRP measures over a fire’s lifetime, an estimate of the total FRE released can be obtained for each event. In this work, daily FRE was derived for the 2010-2021 period, over the Mediterranean region countries. Thresholds values of each defined danger class for the FWI, FFMC, and ISI indices were obtained considering the FRE percentiles computed for different regions of the Mediterranean basin and discussed based on the different fire regimes for the region. A trend analysis of the CFFWIS sub-indices was performed to assess the fire danger behavior and the extreme fire weather over the different Mediterranean regions.

The regions where the extreme fire weather conditions have become more prevalent were identified considering the spatial correlations, and applying field significance testing allows the identification of the regions with significant trends. Since fire regimes in Southern Mediterranean countries have been changing over the last two decades, mostly due to climate-driven factors changes and to the load and structure of fuels, the observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions are expected to continue in the next years, possibly leading to an increased risk of large fires. In this context, the knowledge of fire danger trends and variability is a key factor for fire managing activities, planning and preparedness, and resources allocation.

Acknowledgments:

This study was performed within the framework of the LSA-SAF, co-funded by EUMETSAT and was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project FIRECAST (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017) and by the 2021 FirEUrisk project funded by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Grant Agreement no. 101003890).

How to cite: Durao, R., Silva, M., Alonso, C., and Gouveia, C.: Calibration of the Fire Danger Classes and Trend analysis over the Mediterranean basin, based on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and the Fire Released Energy from SEVIRI/MSG., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9651, 2022.

EGU22-10035 | Presentations | BG1.2

Live fuel moisture content approach using satellite data for Portugal mainland 

Catarina Alonso, Rita Durão, and Célia Gouveia

The fuel moisture content (FMC) is an important property to assess fire danger, to control fuel ignition and fire propagation. The wetting and drying rates of the fuels are driven by the fuel characteristics and weather conditions, being FMC strongly driven by solar radiation influencing fuel temperature in the highly exposed fuels. Usually, FMC is divided into Dead Fuel Moisture Content (DFMC) and Life Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC). LFMC is not easily estimated due to plants’ adaptation to drought and capacity of extracting water from soils that significantly vary among different vegetation species. Extreme climate events (such as droughts and heatwaves) are important factors addressed to fire danger assessment and related activities, due to their significant impacts on fuel conditions and in the vegetation status. High-impact mega-fires have been reported over areas where biomass and fuel accumulation present significant amounts. Therefore, the estimation LFMC is a useful approach to improve fire danger assessment, bringing also advantages in the study of the dynamics of biodiversity and biomass understory recovery.

Although LFMC in-situ measurements have limited spatial coverage and temporal sampling, the use of remote sensing data is essential to overcome space-time constraints and to develop methodological approaches to assess space-time LFMC variations over Portugal. Accordingly, to previous studies, LFMC estimation results improve when using a vegetation index together with the minimum temperature. The Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a quantitative measure of the amount of live green leaf material present in the canopy per unit ground surface. Since LAI and LFMC are interdependent variables with similar seasonal and interannual trends, it is possible to estimate LFMC based on LAI data.

The present work aims to obtain LFMC statistical model to pixel by pixel for Portuguese national scale, using LAI and Land Surface Temperature (LST) products, delivered by the EUMETSAT Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility (LSA SAF) and LFMC in-situ data for Atlantic Scrub that are routinely collected over 10 monitoring sites by AGIF (Agência para a Gestão Integrada de Fogos Rurais, IP).

Results revealed very good correlation values between LFMC in-situ data and LFMC estimated, ranging between 0.68 and 0.92, decreasing to values ranging from 0.30 and 0.90, highlighting the robustness of the model in the majority of the locations.  These results vary spatially, being higher over the most sampled locations, as expected; and have the drawback of being site-specific. The influence of LAI is higher than the minimum of LST however being less important LST in the northeast of Portugal.  Further work will focus on the assessment of the remote sensing-based LFMC estimations uncertainty and the linking of LFMC to fire danger and behavior.

 

Acknowledgments: This study was performed within the framework of the LSA-SAF, co-funded by EUMETSAT and was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project FIRECAST (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017) and by the 2021 FirEUrisk project funded by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Grant Agreement no. 101003890).

How to cite: Alonso, C., Durão, R., and Gouveia, C.: Live fuel moisture content approach using satellite data for Portugal mainland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10035, 2022.

EGU22-10391 | Presentations | BG1.2

Impacts of Fires on Convective Cloud Features in Southeast Asia: Variability with ENSO 

Azusa Takeishi and Chien Wang

Located right in the middle of the tropical warm pool, convective activities over Southeast Asia are subject to interannual variability in sea surface temperature due primarily to varying phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations often show a reduction in the amount of rainfall during El Niño and its increase during La Niña over Southeast Asia. Because of this interannual variability in rainfall and humidity, emissions of aerosol particles and their abundance in the atmosphere, often manifested in aerosol optical depths, are also subject to interannual variability; they increase during El Niño and are reduced during La Niña on average. Our previous study has shown an impact of biomass-burning aerosols on convective clouds, which enhanced rainfall and generally invigorated convection. Here we present the comparison of this aerosol effect among different years with different ENSO phases. We utilized month-long cloud-resolving simulations by the WRF-CHEM model that are capable of including both aerosol direct and indirect effects. The extensive simulation domain size and time period enabled the inclusion of a wide range of contributors to cloud development over the area, from aerosol activation to ENSO-affected meteorology. We show whether the invigoration effect that we found from the year of strong El Niño in 2015 still holds in years of weaker El Niño or even during La Niña.

How to cite: Takeishi, A. and Wang, C.: Impacts of Fires on Convective Cloud Features in Southeast Asia: Variability with ENSO, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10391, 2022.

EGU22-10524 | Presentations | BG1.2 | Highlight

Observing the climate impact of large wildfires on stratospheric temperature 

Matthias Stocker, Florian Ladstädter, and Andrea K. Steiner

In the future, large wildfires are expected to become more frequent and intense. Not only do they pose a serious threat to people and ecosystems, but they also affect the Earth's atmosphere. Aerosols from large wildfires can even reach the stratosphere where they can linger for months to years. However, little is known about their impact on climate. In particular, the potential of large wildfires to cause temperature changes in the stratosphere has hardly been studied.

In our study, we analyze two extreme wildfire events, those in 2017 in North America and those in 2019/20 in Australia, using new satellite observational data. We find strong effects of the fires on the atmospheric temperature structure and short-term climate in the stratosphere. The results show significant warming of the lower stratosphere by up to 10 K within the aerosol clouds emitted by the wildfires immediately after their formation. The climate signal in the lower stratosphere persists for several months, reaching 1 K for the 2017 North American wildfires and a remarkable 3.5 K for the 2019/20 Australian wildfires. This is stronger than any signal from volcanic eruptions in the past two decades. Such extreme events potentially influence the atmospheric composition and stratospheric temperature trends, underscoring their importance for future climate.

Improved knowledge of the temperature signals from extreme wildfires is particularly important for trend analysis. Our ongoing research on this topic aims to further improve the separation of natural variability from anthropogenic influences in climate trend detection, especially in the stratosphere.

How to cite: Stocker, M., Ladstädter, F., and Steiner, A. K.: Observing the climate impact of large wildfires on stratospheric temperature, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10524, 2022.

EGU22-10772 | Presentations | BG1.2

The impact of heat waves in forest fires over the Amazon rainforest 

Luiza Narcizo, Filippe LM Santos, Leonardo F. Peres, Ricardo Trigo, and Renata Libonati

Wildfires have become an imminent threat to ecosystems, consequently leading to economic loss and generating negative impacts on population health. Considering IPCC’s projection of a significant increase in the frequency of these events, it is important to understand which conditions lead to a fire intensification, as recently happened in California, Australia, and Brazilian Pantanal. Some of the greatest wildfires registered in North America and in Europe occurred in concomitance to intense heat waves and drought events. The lack of a comprehensive understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with extreme wildfire events in the Amazon rainforest, underlines the current inability to properly prevent them. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the role of extreme temperature events, such as heat waves (HW), in forest fires behaviour in the Brazilian Amazon during extreme drought years. The relationship between wildfires and HWs was hereby analysed during both dry and wet years in the Amazon Forest, in order to understand the association between different time and spatial scale events in forest fires magnitude. Accordingly, CPC/NOAA reanalysis data of daily maximum temperature between 1979 and 2019 were used as input to determine HW events in a multi-method global heatwave and warm-spell data record and analysis toolbox1. A standard HW definition was applied, where an event corresponds to at least three consecutive days in which the maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile for that day. Wildfire magnitude analyses were calculated through active fire (AF) and fire radiative power (FRP) data from MODIS C6 sensor, obtained at FIRMS/NASA for the comprehended period between 2003 and 2019. Spatial intensity of HW was classified and then confronted with precipitation anomaly in both normal and dry years. Also, statistical comparison of fire magnitude (i.e., AF and FRP) in HW and non heat wave (NHW) days was analysed to measure extreme temperature events impacts in wildfire. Results showed a significant increasing trend in HW occurrences in recent decades, with peaks in known drier years. An increase of AF counting and fire intensity was noticed during HW events. This latter effect appears even when the HW occurs during extremely dry seasons, such as happened at the Amazon Forest in 2005, 2010 and 2015. Extreme values of AF and FRP were a quarter higher in 2005, doubled in 2010 and tripled in 2015 at HW days when compared to NHW days.

 

References 

[1] Raei, E., Nikoo, M., AghaKouchak, A. et al. GHWR, a multi-method global heatwave and warm-spell record and toolbox. Sci Data 5, 180206 (2018).

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by FAPERJ project number E26/202.714/2019. L. N. was supported by CNPq PIBIC  number 160099/2021-8.

How to cite: Narcizo, L., Santos, F. L., Peres, L. F., Trigo, R., and Libonati, R.: The impact of heat waves in forest fires over the Amazon rainforest, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10772, 2022.

EGU22-11099 | Presentations | BG1.2

Reconstructing fire regimes using micro-charcoal in modern marine sediments off Africa 

Aritina Haliuc, Anne-Laure Daniau, Florent Mouillot, Wentao Chen, Valérie David, Vincent Hanquiez, Bernard Dennielou, Enno Schefuß, Germain Bayon, and Xavier Crosta

Fire is a pervasive component of almost every terrestrial ecosystem, but the African continent is rather unique, holding the most vulnerable ecosystems to fire which account for most of the global burned area and for more than half of fire-carbon emissions. Fire has a significant role in ecosystem functioning though our understanding of this complex process is still limited which hinders our ability to model and predict fire.

Paleofire records go beyond the short instrumental records of the last decades and can provide long-term information about fire, but only at a descriptive scale and with difficulties in relating it to the fire regime. To address these limitations, we attempt to develop a quantitative calibration model based on the examination of micro-charcoal from 137 surface sediment samples collected offshore the African continent in conjunction with a set of fire parameters (burnt perimeter, fire radiative power, fire spread) derived from satellite data, environmental information (hydrographic basins, vegetation cover, climatic parameters) and a wind dispersal particle model. Our results show that changes in charcoal concentration and morphometry are linked with fire regime and the type of burnt vegetation on the adjacent continent. In (sub)tropical settings, elongated micro-charcoal particles in high concentrations relate to rare but intense fires spreading in graminoid-mixed ecosystems whereas squared particles in low concentrations are typical for frequent but low intensity fires, characteristic for tree-dominated ecosystems.

This work provides the first calibration model of micro-charcoal in marine sediments which can be applied to long marine charcoal records to help reconstruct past fire regimes. This investigation addresses a key issue in unlocking specific methodological and theoretical problems related to fire research; it provides a better understanding of the local to regional processes that govern the fire signal and contextualize current and past environmental changes.

How to cite: Haliuc, A., Daniau, A.-L., Mouillot, F., Chen, W., David, V., Hanquiez, V., Dennielou, B., Schefuß, E., Bayon, G., and Crosta, X.: Reconstructing fire regimes using micro-charcoal in modern marine sediments off Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11099, 2022.

EGU22-11223 | Presentations | BG1.2 | Highlight

Future fire impact on PM2.5 pollution and attributable mortality 

Chaeyeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Fang Li, Vera Ling Hui Phung, Junya Takakura, Tomoko Hasegawa, and Ahihiko Ito

Fine particulate matter with a diameter of ≤ 2.5  (PM2.5), one of the hazardous air pollutants, contributed 4.5 million to 8.9 million global mortality annually. Among the total PM2.5 related mortality, 5%–21% were attributed to fires. While anthropogenic fire has been declined by reduced land fragmentation and changed land use, climate change has increased fire activities especially in fire seasons. These fires eventually lead to high PM2.5 in many regions, leading to public health concern. However, the impact of future fires on PM2.5 and its health burden according to climate change and socioeconomic scenarios has not been studied globally. We estimated fire related PM2.5 at the end of 21st century under various future scenarios (combination of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)) and its attributable mortality. We used modified CLM and GEOSChem for simulating fire emissions and PM2.5 concentration, respectively. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) method was used for estimating attributable mortality. We also evaluated how global inequality in fire-PM2.5 mortality by income (economic inequality) would change. We found that future climate change led to higher fire-PM2.5 by increasing drought and biomass carbon density, whereas future increased GDP would offset the increase in fire-PM2.5. The results of fire-PM2.5 mortality varied significantly by SSPs. Population increase under SSP3 would lead to increase in mortality and economic inequality. The total fire-PM2.5 mortality decreased under SSP1–4, but the economic inequality increased under SSP4. If the world follows SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario, fire-PM2.5 mortality would reduce about 40% and improve economic equality.

This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan.

How to cite: Park, C., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S., Li, F., Phung, V. L. H., Takakura, J., Hasegawa, T., and Ito, A.: Future fire impact on PM2.5 pollution and attributable mortality, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11223, 2022.

EGU22-11616 | Presentations | BG1.2

Fire weather risk analysis over Portugal in the last decades and their impacts over the atmosphere  - The Monchique study case 

Filippe LM Santos, Flavio T Couto, Vanda Salgueiro, Miguel Potes, Maria João Costa, Daniele Bortoli, and Rui Salgado

More intense fire seasons have been favoured by climate changes worldwide, like Russia, Brazil, the USA, Canada and Portugal. Portugal experienced numerous severe fire seasons with catastrophic wildfires that caused enormous impacts in the last years. This study aimed to investigate the fire risk evolution in Portugal over the last 40 years and the extreme wildfire emission impacts derived from remote sensing data. First, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) from 1979 to 2020, at 0.25º spatial resolution, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis version 4 based on meteorological variables, was used. Then, FWI monthly mean values and trends were analysed for four districts of Southern Portugal (Beja, Evora, Faro and Portalegre). The results indicate that the Faro district presented extreme fire risk values, which peaked on August 2, 2018, one day before the Monchique (a mountain in Faro) wildfire began and lasted between August 3 and 10. The Monchique wildfire was the most destructive in Portugal during 2018, with almost 27.000 ha burned. Second, based on the previous results, atmospheric products derived from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite, the first Copernicus mission dedicated to atmospheric composition monitoring, were collected. These datasets were obtained from Google Earth Engine (GEE), the online platform that combines multiple imageries and datasets with cloud processing to perform analyses. The Carbon monoxide (CO) and Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations, as well as Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) products were analysed during the fire event. The concentrations released by the wildfire reached values 3 and 5 times higher than usual for CO and NO2, respectively. Therefore, the work confirms that extreme wildfire events can release huge pollutant concentrations into the atmosphere. Also, the Sentinel-5 products are useful to evaluate the fire emission evolution in extreme wildfires events and may constitute additional valuable information to combine with ground-based information to map air quality related to wildfire occurrences.

This research was funded by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund in the framework of the Interreg V A Spain - Portugal program (POCTEP) through the CILIFO project (Ref.: 0753-CILIFO-5-E), FIREPOCTEP project (0756-FIREPOCTEP-6-E), and also by national funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P. under the PyroC.pt project (Refs. PCIF/MPG/0175/2019), ICT project (Refs. UIDB/04683/2020 and UIDP/04683/2020), and TOMAQAPA (PTDC/CTAMET/ 29678/2017).

How to cite: Santos, F. L., Couto, F. T., Salgueiro, V., Potes, M., Costa, M. J., Bortoli, D., and Salgado, R.: Fire weather risk analysis over Portugal in the last decades and their impacts over the atmosphere  - The Monchique study case, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11616, 2022.

EGU22-11760 | Presentations | BG1.2

Climatic drivers explain the interannual variability of the global burned area 

Andrina Gincheva, Sonia Jerez, Juli G. Pausas, Joaquín Bedía, Sergio M Vicente-Serrano, Antonello Provenzale, Emilio Chuvieco, John Abatzoglou, and Marco Turco

Understanding the response of fire to climate variations is essential to adapt fire management systems under climate change. Although several studies have analysed the drivers of the average spatial variability of fire, the assessment of the temporal variability of fire in response to climate across the globe has proved challenging, largely due to complexity of the processes involved, the limitation of observation data and the compound effect of the multiple drivers, which usually cause non-linear effects.

In this study, we analyse how much of the interannual variability in observed burned area (BA) is linked with temporal variations in climate at global scale. To solve this question, we use the burned area data of the FireCCI51. product for the period 2001-2019 at the global scale, and different climate metrics that are directly related to drought occurrence, including indices like the Fire Weather Index (FWI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Our study shows complex spatial patterns in the relationship between climate drivers and BA variability, highlighting where variations in FWI, SPI, SPEI or their interaction explain BA variability. While in some areas the interannual variability of burned area does not show a statistically significant influence of climate variability, over a substantial portion of the global burnable area (~60%) the BA variability can be explained by interannual variability of climate drivers. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly two thirds (64%) of the observed temporal BA variability.

How to cite: Gincheva, A., Jerez, S., Pausas, J. G., Bedía, J., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Provenzale, A., Chuvieco, E., Abatzoglou, J., and Turco, M.: Climatic drivers explain the interannual variability of the global burned area, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11760, 2022.

EGU22-11856 | Presentations | BG1.2

Analysis of the environmental conditions favoring the development of deep pyroconvection in Southern Europe 

Martín Senande-Rivera, Damián Insua-Costa, and Gonzalo Míguez-Macho

Deep pyroconvection can strongly modify surface weather conditions, especially when a firestorm develops, completely altering fire spread and making it more difficult to predict and control. However, the limited number of observations constrains our understanding of this type of events, so the environmental controls on deep pyroconvection are not entirely clear and, in particular, there are still uncertainties about the atmospheric conditions conducive to the development of this phenomenon. We conduct idealised numerical simulations with the fire-atmosphere coupled model WRF-Fire initialised with selected real-case atmospheric profiles of wind, temperature and moisture, obtained from the ERA5 database, corresponding to the 100 days of highest fire risk per year during the 2010-2019 period at six different European fire-prone locations. For each of these atmospheric profiles, we perform a suite of paired experiments of an ideal fire spreading through five different fuel categories. Each pair consists of a control run with interaction between fire and atmosphere and a simulation in which the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the fire are turned off (uncoupled simulation). This experiment allows us to make a significant statistical study of pyroconvection events and thus analyse which environmental factors favour its development. We found that a high fuel load, a large vertical temperature lapse rate between the 850 hPa and the 500 hPa levels and a high moisture content in the lower layers of the atmosphere are some of the main factors in the development of firestorms. 

How to cite: Senande-Rivera, M., Insua-Costa, D., and Míguez-Macho, G.: Analysis of the environmental conditions favoring the development of deep pyroconvection in Southern Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11856, 2022.

EGU22-12015 | Presentations | BG1.2 | Highlight

Evidence for a stronger global impact of fire on atmospheric composition 

James Randerson, Yang Chen, Li Xu, Joanne Hall, Louis Giglio, Dave van Wees, Sander Veraverbeke, Guido van der Werf, Douglas Morton, Elizabeth Wiggins, Niels Andela, and Stijn Hantson

Toward the development of the 5th generation of the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED5), we provide evidence for a significantly higher level of contemporary global fire emissions than what has been reported in previous inventories, as a result of advances in our understanding of burned area, fuel consumption, and emission factors. Increases in the availability of high-resolution burned area datasets from Sentinel and Landsat now allow for more effective estimation of fire scars associated with small and discontinuous fires in many biomes. By combining these regional-scale datasets with burned area and active fire observations from MODIS, we estimate that global burned area exceeded 700 Mha per year during 2001-2020. This estimate is more than 40% higher than previous estimates from GFED4 with small fires (GFED4s), mostly as a consequence of increases in savanna and grassland burning across Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. At the same time, more extensive field observations in boreal forest ecosystems provide evidence for higher levels of fuel consumption than has been integrated into previous regional and global inventories. New emission factor observations from tropical peatlands and boreal forests provide evidence for a stronger smoldering phase of emissions, elevating emissions of carbon monoxide and organic carbon aerosol. Together, these advances suggest the impact of contemporary wildfires may have been underestimated in past work; we conclude by exploring the compatibility of this inventory with atmospheric aerosol and trace gas observations using a global atmospheric chemistry model.

How to cite: Randerson, J., Chen, Y., Xu, L., Hall, J., Giglio, L., van Wees, D., Veraverbeke, S., van der Werf, G., Morton, D., Wiggins, E., Andela, N., and Hantson, S.: Evidence for a stronger global impact of fire on atmospheric composition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12015, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12015, 2022.

EGU22-12049 | Presentations | BG1.2

A novel parameterization for wildfire plumes in LPJ-GUESS 

Lars Nieradzik and Tommi Bergman

Wildfires are one of the major disturbances in the global terrestrial ecosystems and can be the key driver for both vegetation composition and structure, affecting the carbon stocks above and below the surface. With a total of about 2 Pg(C)/year emitted into the atmosphere wildfires also play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Beyond this, emissions from wildfires influence regional air quality, can have a fertilizing effect on the surroundings, or alter the albedo of both the burned area itself but also of distant areas when e.g. black carbon is deposited on ice sheets or snow. Large fires creating pyrocumulonimbus-clouds even elevate trace gases into the lower stratosphere. 

The chemical and physical evolution of the compounds emitted by wildfires can be simulated by modern CTMs (Chemistry Transport Models) and ESMs (Earth-System Models). A key uncertainty in these models, though, are the fires and the resulting emissions themselves, both in space and amount. Many plume rise models use satellite retrievals for fire intensity as e.g. FRP (Fire Radiative Power) and top height for hindcast or historical simulations, where the accuracy of FRP is anti-correlated with the total emissions because the plume itself blocks the frequencies needed to measure a fire’s intensity, i.e. the larger in scale a fire is the less accurate its intensity, and therefore, it is difficult to generate a vertical emission profile. Furthermore, for future projections, these parameters need to be computed from available information within the operating model.

The approach presented here was developed in the framework of the project CoBACCA and is an attempt to invert this problem. Therefore, we use the 2nd generation dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS and its incorporated wildfire-model SIMFIRE-BLAZE. Vegetation in LPJ-GUESS is represented by 12 different Plant Functional Types (PFTs; 10 tree and 2 grass PFTs) plus litter and soil pools. In combination with meteorological parameters, the combustion model BLAZE then computes their mortality, their combustion completeness, the intensity of the fire, and finally a vertical emission profile. 

Another critical issue for the use of vertical emissions is that one of the uncertainties in atmospheric models is the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) which more or less determines whether emitted air-parcels remain in the mixing layer or reach the free troposphere or even the lower stratosphere. We, therefore, decided to compute the vertical emission profile relative to a model-generated PBL.

These emission profiles will be used online in the upcoming version 4 of the ESM EC-Earth but they can also be used offline as emission inventories for other models. This is a step towards a fully coupled plume-rise sub-grid model to be developed within EC-Earth4.

How to cite: Nieradzik, L. and Bergman, T.: A novel parameterization for wildfire plumes in LPJ-GUESS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12049, 2022.

EGU22-12134 | Presentations | BG1.2

Impacts of summer 2021 wildfire events in Southwestern Turkey on air quality with multi-pollutant satellite retrievals 

Merve Eke, Fulya Cingiroglu, and Burcak Kaynak

Climate change has several impacts on our Earth. Even though wildfires are natural processes to sustain structure of an ecosystem, there is a significant increase in the global fire cases and their extent in the recent years caused by the climate change. These wildfires have important impacts on air quality, climate and relatedly public health. Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) indicated that Siberia, North America, and the Mediterranean regions are greatly impacted by wildfires and the intensities of these fires are expressed as Fire Radiative Power (FRP). Effect of wildfires can also be observed with gas pollutant satellite retrievals of CO, NO2, and HCHO which is an important volatile organic carbon (VOC).

Turkey was challenged with wildfires that result in the destruction of forests, the death of animals and devastating impacts on local people in 2021. CAMS Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) indicated that the worst fire case observed in Turkey compared with other Mediterranean countries. Global Forest Watch fire counts showed that, fire counts reached up to 695 and 385 in summer (between June-August) 2021 for Antalya and Mugla provinces, respectively. However, fire counts did not exceed 165 fires in the summer season for either Antalya or Mugla in the last five years. Moreover, there was a significant increase in fires in the forested lands for Mersin province as well. Fire counts reached up to 171 per day (31st August) in Antalya province and fire smokes were observable from MODIS Corrected Reflectance images in the fire period. In addition, air pollutants caused by these fires were observable with high resolution TROPOMI retrievals.

In this study, multi-pollutant satellite retrievals were used to investigate the wildfires air quality impacts on the Southwestern Turkey. VIIRS S-NPP Fire Radiative Power product and TROPOMI CO, NO2, and HCHO, products were used to analyze impacts of these extreme wildfire cases. Products were processed spatially and temporally for two months (July-August 2021). A specific attention was given on period of 28th July-12th August. A 1×1 km2 gridded domain covering the impacted region was selected to investigate the spatial distribution of these pollutants. 29th and 31st of July were the days where the impacts of wildfires were analyzed specifically. Wind speed and direction were used to understand the relation between meteorological conditions and the pollution distribution caused by the wildfires. Aerosol signals will be also investigated using MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) and TROPOMI aerosol index (AI) retrievals.

How to cite: Eke, M., Cingiroglu, F., and Kaynak, B.: Impacts of summer 2021 wildfire events in Southwestern Turkey on air quality with multi-pollutant satellite retrievals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12134, 2022.

EGU22-12301 | Presentations | BG1.2

Spatiotemporal post-fire change analysis using optical and SAR imagery 

Yeji Lee, Junse Oh, Su Young Kim, Yoon Taek Jung, and Sang-Eun Park

Wildfires on permafrost covered with the boreal forest can influence vegetation composition, surface soil moisture, and the active layer. Since wildfires on permafrost occur extensively in unpredictable areas, remote sensing is a useful tool for monitoring burn severity and ecosystem changes. Optical spectral indices such as the differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were traditionally used to detect burn severity and vegetation regrowth. However, since optical imagery is significantly affected by cloud cover and weather conditions, there is a limitation in acquiring temporally dense images. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) can obtain images regardless of day/night or weather conditions, so it is possible to densely observe the area of interest spatiotemporally. In addition, SAR images, unlike optical images, can acquire information on the active layer of the permafrost in the winter season. This study aimed to analyze winter season time-series SAR backscattering coefficient change with burn severity in south Northwest Territories, Canada using optical and SAR data. The study area, south Northwest Territories, belongs to the discontinuous permafrost zone and consisted of the taiga. Burn severity and vegetation regrowth were estimated by dNBR and NDVI using optical imagery. To increase the temporal resolution, Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI were acquired through the cloud-based Google Earth Engine (GEE) in the summer season. C-band dual-polarization Sentinel-1 and X-band single-polarization TerraSAR-X were obtained to understand the multi-frequency backscattering coefficient to fire-induced changes. The changes pattern of the SAR backscattering coefficient varies according to the burn severity, especially in the winter season, not affected by vegetation and soil moisture. It can be seen that the wildfires affected the changes in the scattering mechanism in permafrost on the boreal forests. These results represent that C-band and X-band SAR images have the potential to monitor the changes of the active layer with burn severity.

How to cite: Lee, Y., Oh, J., Kim, S. Y., Jung, Y. T., and Park, S.-E.: Spatiotemporal post-fire change analysis using optical and SAR imagery, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12301, 2022.

In this work, a multi-sensors temporal and spatial approach was carried out to monitor the vegetation post-fire recovery rate in a Mediterranean site (in part falling within the Nature2000 network) through the use of the optical Sentinel-2 and SAR C-band Sentinel-1 imagery temporal-series. The study area was observed for one year before and three years after the fire event. Several vegetation indices (VIs) were calculated for both optical (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI; green NDVI, GNDVI; normalized red-edge vegetation index, NDRE, normal burn index, NBR; normalized difference water index, NDWI) and SAR (radar vegetation index, RVI; dual-polarized SAR vegetation index, DPSVI; radar forest degradation index, RFDI) data from which the temporal spectral profiles were extracted in the function of one of the three vegetation types (natural/semi-natural native forest, eucalyptus plantation and grasslands), of the burn-severity gradient, and of the orbit path of SAR satellite. What emerged is that the recovery spectral dynamics are highly influenced in terms of time and magnitude by both vegetation type and, mainly, burn severity. Optical Sentinel-2 observations showed that native woody and non-woody vegetation presented higher efficiency in restoring the ecological and physiological equilibrium by the observed time, whereas C-band SAR Sentinel-1 information seems to point out that the structural characteristics cannot be recovered in such a short time, although both the data appeared impacted by saturation. Climate variables, in particular monthly rainfall, compared and correlated with the temporal spectral profiles,  demonstrated to be very influential on the SAR signal, especially for a higher degree of burn severity. The spatial distribution of the post-fire recovery rate was estimated by calculating the burn recovery ratio (BRR), optimized using the random forest (RF) machine learning regressor model to account the natural phenological changes which affect unburned vegetation during the time.  The BRR results validated what had been recorded in the temporal profiles. The effectiveness of open-source data, software, and models interoperability for post-risk monitoring purposes of vulnerable habitats was also emphasized in this study.

How to cite: De Luca, G., Silva, J. M. N., and Modica, G.: Temporal and spatial analysis for post-fire vegetation recovery in a Mediterranean site. An approach using optical Sentinel-2 and SAR Sentinel-1 imagery., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12542, 2022.

EGU22-12805 | Presentations | BG1.2

The role of meteorological factors on interannual variability of fire activity in Iberia: an assessment performed over four subregions 

Carlos C. DaCamara, Sílvia A. Nunes, and José M.C. Pereira

The Iberian Peninsula is recurrently affected by devastating wildfires that result from an interplay of human activities, landscape features, and atmospheric conditions. The fact that the Mediterranean basin, and the Iberian Peninsula in particular, is a hotspot of climate change, strongly suggests that particular attention should be devoted to the role played by atmospheric conditions on wildfire activity.

Here we present a statistical model that is able to simulate the probability of occurrence of a fire event that releases a given amount of Fire Radiative Power, provided a specified level of meteorological fire danger as rated by the Fire Weather Index.

The model combines a lognormal distribution central body with a lower and an upper tail, both consisting of Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, and daily FWI is used as a covariate of the parameters of the lognormal and the two GP distributions.

The Iberian Peninsula is subdivided into four spatially homogeneous pyro-regions, namely the northwest(NW), southwest (SW), north (N) and east (E) regions. Fire data cover the period 2001-2020 and consist of Fire Radiative Power (FRP) as acquired by the MODIS instrument on-board Aqua and Terra Satellites. Fire Weather (FWI) data covering the same period were obtained from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service.

For each region, the statistical model is fitted to the sample of FRP of all recorded events. First a base model (with fixed parameters) is fitted to the decimal logarithm of FRP, and the quality of fit is assessed using an Anderson-Darling test. Then the model is improved using FWI as a covariate, and performances of models without and with covariate are compared by computing the Bayes Factor as well as by applying the Vuong’s closeness test.

For each region, a set of 100 synthetic time series of total annual FRP is set up using the statistical models without and with FWI as a covariate. This is achieved by randomly generating probabilities for each observed event, generating the FRP associated to that probability and then adding up the generated FRP all events for each year. The interannual variability of synthetic time series obtained is then compared with the corresponding interannual variability of the recorded events.

Results obtained for region SW show an increase from 91 to 96% of interannual explained variance of FRP when going from the model without to the model with FWI. Increases from 95 to 96%, 84 to 90% and from 78 to 86% were obtained for regions NW, N and E. It is worth stressing that these are conservative estimates of change since the dependence of number of ignitions on FWI was not taken into account.

 

This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project FIRECAST (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017).

How to cite: DaCamara, C. C., Nunes, S. A., and Pereira, J. M. C.: The role of meteorological factors on interannual variability of fire activity in Iberia: an assessment performed over four subregions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12805, 2022.

EGU22-677 * | Presentations | EOS1.8 | Highlight

Developing a National Climate Education Action Plan 

Sylvia Knight, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Dawn Aggas, and Fiona Blair

Climate change is the defining crisis of our generation, and it will be the lived reality for generations to come. Yet many people still do not understand the issue or feel able to respond to it adequately, including the very young people whose future will be most affected.

On 15 September 2021, the University of Reading brought together young people, scientists, teachers and educationalists, policymakers and campaigners at a Climate Education Summit to create an action plan for better climate education in schools and colleges in the UK. This is to ensure all young people today and generations to come are equipped with the knowledge and understanding, and are empowered, to respond to and tackle the climate and ecological crisis facing our planet.

No single organisation is able to take this agenda forward alone and so the joint plan will need to be led and contributed to by different groups and by young people themselves, coming together to make real change possible.

Implicit in our plan is that better climate education is needed and that this education should not be solely delivered in a single school subject or groups of subjects, nor confined only to academic study – climate change touches all areas of society and so our plan covers education broadly.

The action plan consists of nine points:

  • Everyone involved in the education of children in school and college settings should be encouraged and supported to access accredited continuing professional development (CPD) to improve their personal understanding of up-to-date data and science of our changing climate and the impacts of these changes.
  • All teacher trainers and initial teacher trainees should be able to access training that empowers them to effectively incorporate climate education within their teaching across all levels and subjects.
  • Teachers and school leaders should be encouraged and empowered, both at a national and local level, to ensure time and space within and beyond the teaching day is included for climate education.
  • Every school and college should identify a senior staff member to lead on climate education and provide them with support and funding.
  • A structured programme or climate award for schools, colleges and youth organisations should be developed, providing a national focus to a range of extracurricular activities and supporting resources to aid delivery.
  • A national scheme of quality assurance of teaching resources for climate education should be developed.
  • A regular national meeting of the dynamic, well-supported, national networks of educators, scientists and young people should be held, to share ideas and promote collaboration among representatives of these groups.
  • Professionals working in climate research and policy, from science and non-science disciplines, should pledge a proportion of their working time to providing help to teacher-led climate education initiatives.
  • A national, guiding framework for all educational providers that outlines compulsory climate education for all young people via schools and colleges should be developed and implemented.

How to cite: Knight, S., Charlton-Perez, A., Aggas, D., and Blair, F.: Developing a National Climate Education Action Plan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-677, 2022.

EGU22-1656 | Presentations | EOS1.8

Participatory simulation: Climate and ocean literacy in action 

Pimnutcha Promduangsri, Pariphat Promduangsri, Stacey Alvarez de la Campa, Farhad Bolouri, Mario Mascagni, and Riccardo Parigi

Climate change (CC) and ocean degradation (OD) are major threats to the perpetuation of life on planet Earth.  This makes it important for people of all walks to learn about the problems and about how they may contribute to solutions.  It is our responsibility to ensure that the planet remains habitable for humans and for all species.  One way to learn about CC and OD is through experience and direct interaction with the environment.  Experiential learning (Kolb) allows people to learn with both their heads and their hearts, to become engaged with the issues and with their own learning process.  Experience can be real, as in an internship or living with sea-level rise, or it can be contrived, as in a game or simulation.

Many simulation/games have been designed to teach climate and ocean literacy (e.g., review by Ulrich).  Here we will outline our own experience of two online, large-scale participatory simulations – running over several days.  The broad learning objectives for each participant were as follows:

  • to become an even better ocean-climate-coast-literate and geoethical stakeholder and
  • to help other people to become literate in the ocean-climate-coast processes,

in other words,

  • to learn about the ocean, coasts and climate system, to behave in a responsible manner in that system and to learn how to multiply and convey their knowledge and skills to others,
  • to learn how to collaborate effectively with and facilitate the inclusion of a range of stakeholders.

The objective of each online, participatory simulation was to write a collective document, in somewhat similar fashion to drafting an international treaty.  In so doing, participants need to interact, build trust, negotiate, find compromises, listen to others, articulate their own ideas and wishes, draft text, rewrite drafts and so on.  Each simulation is contextualized with a scenario based on real data, but projected into the future.  The interactions are conducted via Discord and Google Drive.  At the end, a structured debrief is conducted.

In this presentation, we will share our experiences and explain the learning processes.  We will outline:

  • The content areas of the online participatory simulations.
  • The pedagogical principles, such as learner-centred participatory simulation, feedback and debriefing.
  • Participants feedback.

We will provide time to answer audience questions, and provide information on how you can participate in the next simulation run.  We hope to see you virtually and in person at the EGU.

How to cite: Promduangsri, P., Promduangsri, P., Alvarez de la Campa, S., Bolouri, F., Mascagni, M., and Parigi, R.: Participatory simulation: Climate and ocean literacy in action, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1656, 2022.

The need for a climate literate public in the face of anthropogenic climate change is an increasingly urgent and necessary task. Defining what it means to be climate literate is situated between divisions of science communication and science education.  On one side, the humanist perspectives of anthropogenic climate change i.e., science risk communication (threats, impacts, and consequences) and, on the other, understanding and sharing in scientific knowledge i.e., science education (the physical and chemical mechanisms that describe Earth’s climate system in equilibrium).  The USGCRP/NOAA defines climate literacy (CL) as "an understanding of your influence on the climate and climate's influence on you and society" and a ‘"climate-literate person understands the essential principles of Earth’s climate system" and, while this CL definition is useful in that it encapsulates the complexity of climate change, drawing in interactions between human actions and the climate system, it positions anthropogenic climate change ahead of the physical science of Earth’s climate.  Prima facie, the initial emphasis on anthropogenic climate change seems inconsequential.  However, efforts in the public education classroom also frequently prioritise or focus on the threat of impacts and consequences, rather than the physical science mechanisms that drive the climate system, and this focus may have serious implications for improving climate literacy in the broader public arena.  Communicating climate change initially as a threat or as a responsibility, especially to children and adolescents, can have undesirable and polarising psychological effects and may negatively influence other mental health disorders. Psychological effects, such as fear or stress, are known to promote apathy, despair, and feelings of helplessness which undermine collective efforts to address climate change. Recent research suggests, however, that providing young people with a solid understanding of the physical science basis of Earth’s climate system prior to teaching them about anthropogenic climate change provides them with a context for coping with climate change as they are better able to construct solutions and perceive the climate dilemma as a ‘system’ rather than as a nebulous, looming threat.  This paper, therefore, proposes a related, but specific, definition for climate science literacy (CSL) that is scoped to the physical processes that are fundamental to, and underpin, the mechanics of anthropogenic climate change that can be utilised in the classroom. In this way, we are anchoring the physical processes of climate change, and – distinct from broader climate literacy – scoping out the complex, dynamic and oftentimes emotive dimension of human influence on the climate system within a knowledge deficit context. We propose, therefore, that the physical science mechanisms that describe Earth’s climate system form the foundation of all climate literacy programmes.  We further propose that the CSL definition for the classroom "is a systematic and integrated understanding of how the natural climate system works in equilibrium, including drivers of natural variation, which forms a foundation for considering the roles of feedback systems and anthropogenic emissions in driving climate change and, therefore, your influence on the climate and climate's influence on you and society".

How to cite: Harker-Schuch, I.: Defining climate literacy: Developing a working definition on what it means to be climate literate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2302, 2022.

EGU22-4081 | Presentations | EOS1.8 | Highlight

Resources for teachers on “Climate Change and Land” and research on eco-anxiety 

Simon Klein, Clémence Pichon, Mathilde Tricoire, Lydie Lescarmontier, Apurva Barve, David Wilgenbus, Djian Sadadou, and Eric Guilyardi

The essential role of education in addressing the causes and consequences of anthropogenic climate change is increasingly being recognised at an international level. The Office for Climate Education (OCE) develops educational resources and proposes professional development opportunities to support teachers, worldwide, to mainstream climate change education.

Drawing upon the IPCC Special Report on the Climate Change and Land, the OCE has produced a set of educational resources that cover the scientific and societal dimensions, at local and global levels, while developing students’ reasoning abilities and guiding them to take action (mitigation and/or adaptation) in their schools or communities. These resources include:

  • Ready-to-use teacher handbook that (i) target students from the last years of primary school to the end of lower-secondary school (aged 9 to 15), (ii) include scientific and pedagogical overviews, lesson plans, activities and worksheets, (iii) are interdisciplinary, covering topics in the natural sciences, social sciences, arts and physical education, (iv) promote active pedagogies: inquiry-based science education, role-play, debate, project-based learning, (v) followed by 7 examples of inspiring projects of actions to either mitigate or adapt to climate change impacts, or take part of the science or disseminate climate change knowledge.
  • A specific attention is drawn to tackle eco-anxiety with the development of a class activity focused on emotions.
  • A Summary for teachers of the IPCC Special Report, presented together with a selection of related activities and exercises that can be implemented in the classroom.
  • A set of 10 videos where experts speak about a specific issue related to the link between land and climate change.
  • A set of 6 multimedia activities offering students the possibility of working interactively in different topics related to climate change.

An important concern for climate change education is to assess the impact of the required pedagogy for transforming students’ behaviour to face climate challenges. Therefore, the OCE is conducting an evaluation research project on activities around the emotions related to climate change.

How to cite: Klein, S., Pichon, C., Tricoire, M., Lescarmontier, L., Barve, A., Wilgenbus, D., Sadadou, D., and Guilyardi, E.: Resources for teachers on “Climate Change and Land” and research on eco-anxiety, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4081, 2022.

The consequences of climate change present one of the most pressing issues of our time. It is important to have a well-informed population about the consequences of climate change in order to prepare them to make decisions about it. In this sense, along with the contribution of the media, climate change education (climate literacy) is crucial for the development of climate change knowledge and beliefs. A solid knowledge about climate change not only helps teachers to successfully meet the goal of climate literacy, but also influences student's attitudes regarding practical steps to reduce the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

A sample of seventy-four pre-service teachers (Master’s students – ‘Master's Degree in Secondary Education, Baccalaureate, Vocational Training and Language Teaching’ at the University of Granada, Melilla Campus), and sixty-nine in-service teachers (from Melilla), allowed to analyse: (1) knowledge, (2) beliefs, and (3) attitudes about climate change. Regarding the study of the first concept, the following items were assessed: (a) knowledge about the causes of climate change, (b) knowledge about the greenhouse effect, (c) knowledge concerning the expected consequences of climate change, and (d) action-related knowledge about climate change. The results presented in this study display that most of the pre- and in-service teachers (from both the scientific itinerary and other itineraries) believe in the existence of climate change and recognize its anthropic cause. However, they still respond to different misconceptions as well as distorted knowledge about the consequences of climate change, affecting their willingness to act on it. Consequently, the Secondary School Curriculum needs to be updated, since it is mainly focused on the scientific explanations of the phenomenon rather than on the social or practical aspects of the problem.

How to cite: López-Quirós, A. and Guilarte, V.: Secondary School Teacher’s Awareness of Climate Change: a comparison of pre-service and in-service teachers from the Spanish North African city of Melilla, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5701, 2022.

EGU22-7805 | Presentations | EOS1.8 | Highlight

How will we live in the Anthropocene? A scientific guided tour at the 2021 Venice Architecture Biennale. 

Francesco Marcello Falcieri, Michol Ghezzo, Caterina Castellani, and Lucia de Manicor

The 17th International Architecture Exhibition organized by La Biennale di Venezia ran from 22 May to 21 November 2021 with the title “How will we live together?”. Its main were the social and political questions on the rapidly changing social norms, the political polarization between left and right, climate change, and the growing gap between labor and capital. In the context of the exposition the ongoing collaboration between La Biennale and CNR-ISMAR lead to the development of a guided tour in the Central Pavillion and in the Danish pavilion targeted toward primary schools (6-11 years old). The guided visit used the art pieces presented as a starting point to discuss different aspects Ocean Literacy, climate change and human impacts on the environment with on site explanations and activities to be held once back in class. The tour was divided into three sections: 1) how the Earth-system works and what is the Anthropocene; 2) What are the direct impacts of human activities on the oceans; 3) Which are the consequences of those impact on mankind. A total of 41 classes from primary schools in the Veneto region participated the visit and were later monitored for satisfaction and retention of the information provided during the visit.

In the La Biennale CNR-ISMAR collaboration this was a first attempt to create a guided tour on Ocean Literacy using as a starting point an already established architecture exposition.

How to cite: Falcieri, F. M., Ghezzo, M., Castellani, C., and de Manicor, L.: How will we live in the Anthropocene? A scientific guided tour at the 2021 Venice Architecture Biennale., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7805, 2022.

EGU22-8885 | Presentations | EOS1.8

Raising awareness of the impact of climate change on coastal regions. A citizen science-based approach within the SECOSTA project 

E. Alejandro Herrada, Joan Puigdefabregas, Miguel Agulles, Jorge Ramos, Aida Frank, Joan Villalonga, Damià Gomis, and Gabriel Jordà

Coastal regions will be highly impacted by climate change due to the rise of sea level and the impacts of warmer sea temperatures on coastal ecosystems. Moreover, for those regions whose economy is highly dependent on coastal activities, such as maritime transport or coastal tourism, the assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change is crucial to guarantee their economic resilience. Since 2018, the SECOSTA project (https://secosta.wordpress.com/) has launched different citizen science-based programs (SOCLIMPACT, VENOM, DECIMATE) focused on monitoring the impact of climate change on coastal areas. The goal is twofold. On the one side, the SECOSTA project aims to make high school students aware of climate change and of the work developed by scientists. On the other hand, the students contribute to the acquisition of data that will be used in scientific studies afterwards. The SECOSTA project strategy is the following. First, different low cost and open source devices are designed to measure with a reasonable degree of accuracy several parameters (e.g. sea level, atmospheric pressure, beach topobathymetry, sea temperature). Second, high school teachers are trained in dedicated workshops to build those devices with their students. Third, the teachers develop educational multidisciplinary projects in their schools around a particular topic of interest (e.g. sea level rise, ocean warming...) involving the data acquisition. This phase is guided by the scientists who also provide educational resources to help in the development of the educational projects. Finally, the observations obtained by the students are processed by the scientists and incorporated in several research projects as additional datasets.

The project has been successfully implemented creating a robust synergy among researchers, the regional government and secondary schools. To date, close to 20 different secondary schools have taken part in the different initiatives, involving more than 2,000 students per year in the construction of devices, acquisition and processing of data. In light of the success of previous terms, in 2022, the SECOSTA project is going to hold a conference that will serve as a forum for the participating high schools to present the results of their scientific studies. In this presentation we will describe the different steps of the project along with some recommendations about the lessons learned during these years for a successful deployment of citizen-science based projects in secondary schools.

How to cite: Herrada, E. A., Puigdefabregas, J., Agulles, M., Ramos, J., Frank, A., Villalonga, J., Gomis, D., and Jordà, G.: Raising awareness of the impact of climate change on coastal regions. A citizen science-based approach within the SECOSTA project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8885, 2022.

Environmental education in schools (from child-care to high-school) mostly focuses on teaching features and processes that characterize the local natural environment, so that the geographical context strongly affects what children and older students (and their families) may learn and know about the surroundings and which actions need be taken to protect and conserve it. As a consequence, the community living in a mountain region is less prone to learning about the sea or the ocean, about its main physical, chemical and biological charachteristis, and about the processes that regulate them and how or why day-to-day actions affect the ocean's health and sustainability – the so called “ocean blindness”. Such considerations have led to the organization of a small set of pilot Education and Outreach activities that have been carried out in the schools of the province of Biella, a small-sized city located in the foot-hill of the Alps, 300m above sea-level, and about 200 km away from the nearest coast. These school activities/projects involved a very wide age group, including child care (ages 1-3), kindergarten (ages 3 to 5), elementary (ages 6 to 10) and high-school (ages 14-17) and were aimed at teaching basic marine science concepts learned from more than 10 years of experience as an oceanographer. This contribution presents the results and lessons learned from the first activities carried out in 2021 also providing an example of activities that can be carried out in similar contexts, and of hands-on resources that are available also when operating far away from the coast.

How to cite: Borrione, I.: First steps to countering “ocean blindness” in an alpine region: lessons learned from ocean literacy activities across a wide age group, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9400, 2022.

EGU22-9472 | Presentations | EOS1.8

Climate literacy for professionals in the Netherlands 

Janette Bessembinder, Jeroen Kluck, Sabine Niederer, and Reint Jan Renes

Professionals in sectors such as urban planning, energy transition, health, need knowledge about climate change for e.g. designing tunnels, urban planning, risk assessments related to climate change, giving policy advice about adaptation measures. The required climate data and information is often not easy to find, needs to be processed, or there is so much climate data available that it is difficult to determine what should be used in a specific situation. In addition, these professionals often have contact with administrators and citizens who ask them questions about climate change, why certain adaptation measures are taken, etc. However, there are a lot of misunderstandings about climate and climate change and there is a lot of polarization.
Both the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences (HvA) have a lot of contact with professionals working on climate adaptation and mitigation and they both recognize that professionals need more tailoring of climate data and, at the same time, they need help with the communication about climate change. Based on the experiences of the HvA and KNMI in recent years, they decided in the autumn of 2021 to combine their complementary expertises into a lectorate “Climate literacy” to develop new knowledge for professionals: 

  • about climate data and climate change for more effective use in design, risk assessment, policy advice and to be able to make well-informed decisions. This concerns technical knowledge about access to climate data, good use of climate data and climate scenarios, dealing with uncertainties, better linking of climate data and information to the purpose of the sector (i.e. based on knowledge of the technical systems) and decision support.
  • to effectively increase the “climate literacy” of citizens and administrators (tools, interventions, design methods, communication strategies, policy-making), so they  can act well informed in situations related to climate change. For professional users, reliable and easy to understand climate information is also necessary to create support among stakeholders and the general public. For this, it is necessary to connect with how people experience the environment and to relate causes, consequences and action perspectives to themselves.

During the presentation we will elaborate on why it is important to have a combined focus on the tailoring of climate data and communication for professionals, our experiences in the Netherlands and the ideas for research within this lectorate.

How to cite: Bessembinder, J., Kluck, J., Niederer, S., and Renes, R. J.: Climate literacy for professionals in the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9472, 2022.

EGU22-10874 | Presentations | EOS1.8

Climate and Oceans Planetary Boundaries: for Climate Literacy 

Peter Carter

This paper argues that to inform climate-ocean literacy the 2015 Planetary Boundaries (PBs) paper (Will Steffen, 2015) as a guide for “human development on a changing planet” by “a safe operating space for humanity”, requires urgent updating with  extension of boundary indicators. This particularly applies to oceans and to climate change, which are linked. Ocean heath is the ultimate determinant of climate and biosphere. The 2009 PBs abstract said their exceedance “could see human activities push the Earth system outside the stable environmental state of the Holocene, with consequences that are detrimental or even catastrophic for large parts of the world. The 2015 paper said “planetary boundary (PB) framework provides a science-based analysis of the risk that human perturbations will destabilize the ES (Earth System) at the planetary scale.” Risk is the product of likelihood and magnitude. By magnitude, ES destabilization is an unprecedented greatest of risks ever, even at low likelihood. The 2015 paper states, “Three of the PBs (climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and ocean acidification) remain essentially unchanged from the earlier analysis” of 2009. However, climate and ocean change indicators have increased to an extreme degree, at an extreme rate, since 2009. PBs (2015) does not include rates of change, though crucial to risk. Future climate change is calculated from climate sensitivity, still put at 3°C by the IPCC, but (properly) up to 6°C with slow feedbacks by PBs (2009), a large risk not addressed in PBs (2015). PBs (2015) makes atmospheric CO2 and radiative forcing the only metrics and puts the CO2 safety limit at “350 ppm CO2 (350-450 ppm)” while 2009 put the limit at 350 ppm. 450 ppm is far above today’s level of 417ppm.  These two metrics are not enough to determine climate safety. Today’s CO2 equivalent of 504 ppm is a commitment above 2°C and the danger limit is 1.5°C. Increasing radiative forcing determines ocean heating. The radiative forcing (RF) limit is given as 1W m2 (2009 and 2015). NOAA (2021) puts RF at 3.183. PBs (2015) determines ocean safety only by ocean acidification, though the rapid ocean heating, ocean de-oxygenation, sea surface temperature increase and ocean carbon sink are crucial. The planetary boundary would be Ocean Change. The sole metric limit given for ocean acidification is aragonite saturation, while the actual metric for ocean acidification is pH.  While the global climate emergency is widely recognized since the 2018 IPCC 1.5°C Report, PBs (2015) puts climate change within the safety (green) zone, with a range of uncertainty (yellow zone). Ocean acidification is put inside the green safety zone. Ocean acidification has increased 30% and is accelerating. Since 1980, ocean heat has increased 235 zettajoules, which is about 3900 times all the energy used by the human world per year. Open ocean oxygen has been declining since 1975.  Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are projected to increase at least for decades.  The 2015 PB limits are far from safe for oceans and climate.

How to cite: Carter, P.: Climate and Oceans Planetary Boundaries: for Climate Literacy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10874, 2022.

EGU22-11683 | Presentations | EOS1.8

Evaluation of OCE’s lesson plan for 9-12 year old students on emotions related to climate change 

Clémence Pichon, Apurva Barve, David Wilgenbus, Roberto Casati, and Simon Klein

While a thorough understanding of the science of climate change is essential, the psycho-social aspect of this phenomenon cannot be ignored. We now know that psychological burdens of climate change are affecting a large number of youth globally (Marks et al., 2021). Research has shown that children tend to manage eco-anxiety through meaning-focussed, problem-focussed or de-emphasizing coping strategies (Ojala, 2012). Effective climate change education (CCE) thus needs to address these affective aspects to enable changes in behaviour, choices, and habits of students. OCE’s pedagogical plan on eco-anxiety provides teachers with a tool to focus on the psychological impact, further building on the cognitive understanding of climate science imparted by other lessons concerning climate science. Taken together, these lessons will build an interdisciplinary and holistic picture and orient students towards positive action to combat climate change.

The proposed research project study will evaluate the effectiveness of OCE’s lesson plan in managing eco-anxiety and provide a better understanding of eco-anxiety in teachers and 9-12 year old.

Hypotheses and research objectives: Currently, the OCE is conducting a pilot evaluation of the lesson plan on emotion. Using a standardised eco-anxiety and anxiety-coping measurement questionnaires, she will collect student and teacher data before and after teachers implement OCE’s activity on emotions regarding climate change,

Research Question and Methods: This study addresses the question whether students and their teachers are able to better manage eco-anxiety and develop an action-oriented attitude upon using OCE’s lesson plan. This will be a randomized controlled trial approach, with up to 80 teachers from France invited to voluntarily participate in the study with their classes. Teachers will be randomly sorted into two groups. Teachers in the treatment group will receive training and conduct two activities in class - one on consequences of global warming, and one on emotions. Those in the control group will conduct only the activity on consequences of global warming. In both cases, propositions of follow-up activities on prospection through artistic expression and project-based activities will be proposed to the participants. Data will be collected from both groups before and after the activities. Standard tools measuring eco-anxiety levels and behavioural approaches will be used for quantitative data ( Hogg et al., 2021; Ojala, 2012). 

Expected Outcome: The study will provide a scientific validation of the education resources created by OCE and help in making our current and future CCE resources more impactful. It will contribute towards a better understanding of eco-anxiety in young children. If found to have a positive impact on eco-anxiety management, this lesson plan will help make CCE more holistic.

How to cite: Pichon, C., Barve, A., Wilgenbus, D., Casati, R., and Klein, S.: Evaluation of OCE’s lesson plan for 9-12 year old students on emotions related to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11683, 2022.

EGU22-12332 | Presentations | EOS1.8 | Highlight

“The sea talks to us, let’s listen to it!” – ocean science educational activities for children and general population 

Marko Mlinar, Natalija Dunić, Maja Karlović, Krešimir Ruić, Jadranka Šepić, and Marin Vojković

Six young oceanographers (authors of this article), all working at the science institutions in Split (Croatia), connected closely through their work on SHExtreme and StVar-Adri projects. The members of the group previously had, in total, over 30 years of experience in organization and participation in voluntary popular science and educational activities, e.g., Science Festival, Science Factory, FantaSTikon. However, most of this was done in the large cities and at the mainland.

Partly motivated by the “science to all” idea, during 2021 the group had the vision of bringing ocean science to the inhabitants of the Adriatic Sea islands (hours distant to the large cities, having low number of daily connections, with low-count and prevailingly older population), especially children. Their aim was to offer various educational, science-promotive and fun extracurricular activities (main topic being sea) to the islanders, as these activities were rare even in pre-pandemic times and became almost non-existent during 2020/2021.

Thus, during the summer of 2021 “Oceanographers at the Island” held a series of events at three middle Adriatic Islands (Korčula, Ugljan and Hvar). The events included oceanographic science and art workshops for younger (6-10 years) and older (10-14 years) children, sea-topic boardgame gatherings and public talks at local cafes. During the workshops the children have done experiments and meteorological and oceanographic in-situ measurements, followed by the discussions and conclusions on the phenomena. As a result attendees have broadened their knowledge on the thermohaline properties and processes, sea motion and atmosphere-sea interaction. Highly incentive for the children to attend the workshops, selected (board)games, with topics of sea-ecology-strategy, made them revise their knowledge on the sea ecosystem while having fun and feel they, as humans, have an important impact of the present-and-future of their sea-oriented community and the planet. As a commune final product the attending children made posters and picture plates with the messages they found the most important and these were exhibited at the highest visibility places in their community (school or tourist information centre). To strengthen their remembrance on the events and “promises made to the sea” and motivating future science inclusion children were awarded by “The little oceanographer” diploma. General public talks, different at each location, presented an issue of interest for islanders of that particular island. In Vela Luka on Korčula, the topic was a devastating Great Vela Luka flood of 1978 which brought severe destruction to the island, in Vrboska on Hvar, topic were “schigas” – a local phenomenon of sudden sea level oscillations specific for that village; and in Ugljan on Ugljan topic was climate change – of especial interest to community given the numerous natural disasters which occurred during the summer of 2021.

All events were covered by local media (including newspapers, radio, web portals and social networks), and the entire initiative was presented to public by national media. Being praised by the locals and visitors from all age groups, the “Oceanographers at the islands” are continuing their “The sea talks to us, let’s listen to it!” work at new locations in 2022.

How to cite: Mlinar, M., Dunić, N., Karlović, M., Ruić, K., Šepić, J., and Vojković, M.: “The sea talks to us, let’s listen to it!” – ocean science educational activities for children and general population, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12332, 2022.

EGU22-12897 | Presentations | EOS1.8

Schools By The Sea Program 

Stacey Alvarez de la Campa and Mario Mascagni

Schools by the Sea

 

Environmental literacy, in the climatic and oceanic context, is a new concept in Brazil, and only a few authors have introduced the topic since the 2000s (Prates et al. 2007 and Hadel, 2010).

 

According to Smythe (1995) there is a deep disconnect between nature and the daily life of people in urbanized areas. Humanity, through progress and technology, no longer embraces their ability to collaborate with nature, seeking instead to establish dominance over it. It seems as if humanity has lost the sensitivity to associate its behavior as harmful or beneficial to the ecosystem in which it lives.

 

In order to rescue the interrelationship between humanity and nature, and to make the younger population aware of the importance of their individual actions for a more sustainable planet, a project called Schools by the Sea was developed!

 

The Schools by the Sea project promoted environmental studies with high school students, so that they could apply the theoretical knowledge learned in the classroom to practical activities directly in coastal communities. For example, knowledge of chemistry was discussed using experiments which compared levels of dissolved oxygen in water from polluted streams, compared to water from coastal marine areas. The concepts of ecology and biological succession were discussed based on the observation of the plant and animal organisms of rocky shores in different rock strata. Concepts of geography and geology were also explored by focusing on a discussion of sedimentary deposits exposed in different coastal environments, and concepts of physics and mathematics were discussed based on the development of simple artifacts for wind and marine energy generation. All theoretical knowledge tested in practice during the study of the environment was discussed in an integrated way, in order to emphasize that physical, biological, chemical and geological processes are connected in nature and that man is an integral part of these processes, both benefiting and impacting these processes.

 

In this way, regardless of the professional area that the young participants of this project chose in the future, it was expected that they would be able to adopt more sustainable practices in an analytical and critical way in relation to the environment in which they live. The project was recurrent annually between 2006 and 2009, subsidized by the extinct Foundation for Aquatic Studies and Research of the Oceanographic Institute of the University of São Paulo (FUNDESPA-IOUSP).

 

Bibliographic references

 

HADEL, V. F. Programa de Visitas ao Centro de Biologia Marinha-USP: o monitor na mediação entre a Academia e o grande público. In: PEDRINI, A. de G. (Org.) Educação Ambiental Marinha e Costeira no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: Eduerj, 2010. p. 93-114.

PRATES, A.P.L.; DUARTE, A.L.M.; FERREIRA, B.P.; GEORGI, C. LOIOLA, L.; HAZIN, M.C.; REINHART, MH. PEREIRA, P. M. Conduta consciente em ambientes recifais. Brasília: Ministério do Meio Ambiente, 2007. 28 p.

SMYTHE, J.C. Environment and Education: a view of a changing scene. Environment Education Research, v. 1, n. 1, p. 1-20, 1995.

 

How to cite: Alvarez de la Campa, S. and Mascagni, M.: Schools By The Sea Program, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12897, 2022.

Marine ecosystems are deteriorating worldwide, but scientific monitoring postdates the industrial revolution, leading to a distorted image of the pristine state of the world’s oceans. The Q-MARE working group of PAGES brings together scientists from vastly different disciplines, historians, archaeologists, paleontologists and ecologists to explore pre-industrial baselines and understand the true magnitude and rate of change induced by modern anthropogenic activities, including climate change, specifically biodiversity loss and the sustainability of ecosystems and societies. How did climate and human activities affect marine ecosystems in the pre-industrial Holocene and the Pleistocene? When did humans start having a significant impact on the marine environment? How can data from different sources be combined to inform environmental conservation targets and model marine ecosystems? Through our activities, we aim to determine the state and gaps of knowledge around these questions, but also to inform policy-makers and the public.

How to cite: Agiadi, K.: Shifting baselines revisited: Exploring pre-industrial climate and human impacts on marine ecosystems (Q-MARE, 2022–2025), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13171, 2022.

EGU22-89 | Presentations | NH10.1

Mapping single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in Global South urban areas: A case study in Kathmandu, Nepal. 

Harriet Thompson, Bruce D. Malamud, Joel C. Gill, and Robert Šakić Trogrlić

Achieving a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction in urban areas remains challenging. This requires understanding the breadth of single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships across various spatial and temporal scales that might impact a given urban area. Here we describe an approach to systematically map the single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships that have a potential to impact Kathmandu, Nepal, one of the focus cities of the UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) Tomorrow’s Cities research hub. Using an existing classification of 21 natural hazard types (across six hazard groups: geophysical, hydrological, atmospheric, biological, space), we first searched for evidence of each of these occurring in or affecting Kathmandu. We used systematic mapping to find and select evidence, applying a simple Boolean search with keywords and reviewing publications across all years available on online databases before selecting evidence from 2010 onwards where available. The spatial boundary around Kathmandu was not specified, rather we chose evidence based on recorded or potential impacts in the city. When searches returned many results (i.e., over 100), we skimmed titles and abstracts for spatial and temporal occurrence to select up to 5 sources. We examined and integrated evidence from diverse sources, including academic literature, grey literature, traditional media (e.g., English language Nepali newspapers), global and national disaster databases and social media. This evidence was then used to assess potential multi-hazard interrelationships that may occur in Kathmandu. Using this blended evidence, we found 21 single hazard types that might impact Kathmandu. We found case study evidence for 11 interrelationship types that have had previous impact in Kathmandu with many more that are theoretically possible. The results illustrate the complexity of the hazard landscape, with many single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships potentially impacting Kathmandu. This knowledge can inform the development of dynamic risk scenarios, to use in planning and civil protection, thus strengthening multi-hazard approaches to disaster risk reduction in Kathmandu.

How to cite: Thompson, H., Malamud, B. D., Gill, J. C., and Šakić Trogrlić, R.: Mapping single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in Global South urban areas: A case study in Kathmandu, Nepal., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-89, 2022.

This work aims to improve existing Early Warning Systems (EWSs) assessment tools in appraising multi-hazard risk including natural hazards and infectious diseases epidemics or pandemics. The improved EWS assessment tool is applied in four Eastern Partnership countries through the development of a questionnaire, in the framework of the EU-funded PPRDEAST3 project. The analysis of the results of the questionnaire allowed identifying a series of lessons learned to be factored into a revision of the EWSs towards a permanent state of multi-hazard risk.

Because of the spread of the COVID-19, every country has been encountering challenges in several sectors. In addition to socioeconomic impacts, the declined capacities, especially in the health sector, led to changes in priorities for allocation of the resources in the short term and alteration of the development pathways of governments in the long term.

Furthermore, the long-lasting nature of the pandemic has increased the possibility of the concurrence of other natural hazards during the spread time of the virus. In this multi-hazard risk condition, civil protection organizations have to consider extra countermeasures for response to prevent the outbreak of the disease, including restrictions in sheltering and evacuation procedures.  

In the proposed approach, a conceptual model for multi-hazard EWSs, including natural hazards and infectious diseases, based on literature review and experts’ opinion, has been developed and used to derive a new set of indicators useful to understand current EWSs pandemics and multi-hazard risk capabilities.

The final assessment tool is obtained by integrating the new indicators with the previous ones already present in the EWS assessment tool developed by CIMA Foundation. The tool consists of five groups of indicators, four (already present) assessing the traditional EWS pillars, (i) disaster risk knowledge, (ii) detection, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting of the hazard and possible consequences, (iii) warning dissemination and communication, (iv) preparedness and response capabilities, and the last one added to assess (v) pandemics (specifically COVID19) and multi-hazard capabilities. Each group is divided into three to five sub-indicators.

Partner countries were asked to score each on a 0-5 scale in the way that 0 corresponds to "no steps have been made regarding that indicator", and 5 means "they fully meet the requirements relating to that indicator."

The results have been discussed and validated using extra open-source information to evaluate the accuracy of the assessment tool and the compatibility of the given scores with the real situation in partner countries. From this comparison, some biases in the responses have been observed. Therefore, to further improve the assessment tool, it is suggested to firstly, determine the criteria for each point that may give by the responders and secondly, ask for the evidence for each response.

Finally, the result of this research emphasized the necessity of the integration of infectious disease and natural hazard EWSs, the inclusion of the Health Ministry in the decision-making processes of the civil protection, and the coordination between slow onset and rapid onset hazard EWSs.

How to cite: mohammadi, S., Miozzo, D., Boni, G., and De Angeli, S.: Assessing multi-hazard risk assessment capabilities of Early Warning Systems considering potential interactions among pandemics and natural hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-100, 2022.

EGU22-192 | Presentations | NH10.1

A dataset for multi-risk analysis in the Philippines 

Marleen de Ruiter, Giovanni Votano, and Anaïs Couasnon

The occurence and impacts of disasters are increasing in many parts of the world. The increased complexity of disaster risk due to climate change, expected population growth and the increasing interconnectedness of disaster impacts across communities and economic sectors demonstrates the need to improve our ability to understand and model the impacts of consecutive disasters. These consecutive disasters can be described as disasters whose impacts overlap temporally and spatially while recovery from an earlier disaster is still underway. Several challenges affect our ability to account for the impacts of consecutive disasters and multi-hazard interactions, including extensive data requirements and a common focus on single-hazard risk.  

 

Incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics of hazard, exposure and vulnerability is key to understanding drivers of risks and their interactions. In this study, we focus on the Philippines and generate an extensive dataset of multi-hazard events based on observed time series of disasters. We illustrate the potential applications of our dataset with an analysis of the inter-arrival time between hazard events and their impacts. The Philippines is located along the ‘Ring of fire’ and is one of the world’s most at risk countries of natural hazards includingearthquakes, tropical cyclones, landslides, and flooding. The study is carried out for the time period 1980-2019 and at two spatial scales: national and provincial. This dataset is further analysed to document the socio-economic impacts of consecutive disasters as well as the interdependencies and dynamics between multi-hazard events. This spatially and temporally consistent dataset can be used as input for future risk modelling effort to integrate the dynamics and impacts of consecutive disasters.

How to cite: de Ruiter, M., Votano, G., and Couasnon, A.: A dataset for multi-risk analysis in the Philippines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-192, 2022.

EGU22-214 | Presentations | NH10.1

Conceptualizing an adaptation pathway model for multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder systems 

Julius Schlumberger, Marleen de Ruiter, Marjolijn Haasnoot, and Jeroen Aerts

While current adaptation planning approaches commonly focus on single hazards and individual sectors, a paradigm shift in decision-making is required to account for the increasingly interconnected world. Decision making support tools are needed to enable fair distribution of support and (increasingly) limited resources (i.e. space, financial means). No such integrated tools exist yet that account for dependencies, conflicts, and co-benefits between various stakeholders as well as the knowledge regarding dependencies and co-existence of various hazards and their joint impacts. This work provides a first conceptual framework of a decision-support tool in the context of adaptation planning in a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder setting.

Decision-making processes for adaptation planning need to follow dynamically robust plans instead of a static optimal strategy to account for the deeply uncertain future. In fact, a myriad of uncertain or even unknown factors (i.e. climate change, socio-economic developments, technology advancement) might lead to very different future developments. Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways (DAPP) is a widely used systematic and practical approach for decision-making over time and strategic planning under uncertain conditions to design dynamic, adaptive plans covering short-term no-regret actions, long-term options, and adaptation signals to take actions.

A systematic literature review was undertaken to analyze adaptation planning concepts across various (multi-)sectors and (multi-)hazard contexts. This literature review was used to identify underlying paradigms and relevant concepts in the field of scenario analysis, pathway modelling, and multi-objective decision-making useful for advancing the existing DAPP approach. Using a simple, synthetic multi-hazard, multi-sector case study, the tailored adaptation planning framework was tested for its robustness.

As a result, an advanced DAPP framework was developed. It accounts for several different physical processes playing a role in natural hazard impacts on human systems (i.e., different hazard types). Moreover, it accounts for spatial and temporal dependence of (different) hazards influencing coping capacities and the triggering space to take adaptation actions (compound, consecutive, aggregating impacts). Furthermore, the framework acknowledges 1) the diversity of stakeholders in an exposed system in terms of their vulnerability, objectives, coping capacities and contesting interests (e.g., limited resources or space), and 2) the diversity of driving actors of adaptation action within a system and the connectedness of decisions and implications on the system development. The framework uses information about the system and its boundaries, along with information about the available adaptation actions, information about the decision making process / motivation to take adaptation action, information about possible conflicts / dependencies within the decision space (with regards to objectives, adaptation actions, and other system elements) and implicit assumptions used to define the system (of systems). Using this framework, adaptation pathways – meaning sequence of adaptation actions – can be created and evaluated with regards to their robustness and performance in comparison to long-term visions.

How to cite: Schlumberger, J., de Ruiter, M., Haasnoot, M., and Aerts, J.: Conceptualizing an adaptation pathway model for multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-214, 2022.

EGU22-332 | Presentations | NH10.1

A Global Multi-hazard Perspective on Joint Probabilities of Historic Hazards 

Judith Claassen, James Daniell, Elco E. Koks, Timothy Tiggeloven, Marleen C. de Ruiter, and Philip J Ward

While the last decade saw substantial scientific advances in studies aimed at improving our understanding of natural hazard risk, research and policy commonly address risk from a single-hazard, single-sector perspective. Thus, not considering the spatial and temporal interconnections of these events. Single-hazards risk analyses are often inaccurate and incomplete when multi-hazard disasters occur, as the interaction between them may lead to a different impact than summing the impacts of single events. Therefore, the MYRIAD-EU project aim is to catalyse the paradigm shift required to move towards a multi-risk, multi-sector, systemic approach to risk assessment and management. In order to achieve this, the overall aim is that policy-makers, decision-makers, and practitioners will be able to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies across sectors, hazards, and scales. A key first step to achieving this aim is to create a greater understanding of realistic multi-hazard event sets that better examines statistical dependencies between hazard types. To do so, single hazards datasets for meteorological, geological, hydrological and biological events are explored using stochastic modelling and multivariate statistical methods, and create a dataset of potential coinciding hazard events at a global scale. By exploring these multi-hazard interconnections, we achieve a deeper understanding of the different types of multi-hazards events and their temporal and spatial interconnections. Furthermore, this dataset maps indirect, interregional, and cross-sectoral risk throughout the world. Moreover, the multi-hazards event sets will enable to simulate future conditions under climate change by incorporating the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as well as Socio-economic change using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).   

How to cite: Claassen, J., Daniell, J., Koks, E. E., Tiggeloven, T., de Ruiter, M. C., and Ward, P. J.: A Global Multi-hazard Perspective on Joint Probabilities of Historic Hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-332, 2022.

EGU22-547 | Presentations | NH10.1

Multi-hazard risk assessment of critical infrastructure at the global scale 

Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco Koks, Hans de Moel, Jasper Verschuur, Oliver Wing, Jeroen Aerts, and Philip Ward

Critical infrastructures (CI) play an essential role in the day-to-day functioning of societies and economies. They refer to the array of physical assets required for the operation of the complex infrastructure network, which include energy grids, waste systems, and transportation networks. At the same time, impacts of natural hazards highlight the importance of improving our understanding on the natural hazard risk to these infrastructures. CI have evolved in large interconnected networks, whereby disruption of one asset may quickly propagate into widespread consequences – even outside an exposed area. The disruption of the services provided by CI have large potential to seriously hamper the daily activities of societies and economies that depend on them, as well as the recovery in the aftermath of an disruptive event.

To date, however, scientific literature on the potential global asset damages to CI induced by multi-hazards remain limited. Modelling assessments that combine information on hazard intensities and extents, exposure of infrastructure and the vulnerability of these exposed assets are crucial to improve our understanding of infrastructure that are directly at risk to multi-hazards. In this study, we provide first global estimates of multi-hazard risk to CI systems under current climate conditions. To this end, we assess: (1) the global exposure of CI to coastal and fluvial flooding, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides; and (2) quantify the potential asset damages as a consequence of these multi-hazards.

We represent the infrastructure network by seven overarching CI systems: energy, transportation, telecommunication, water, waste, education and health. A total of 42 infrastructure types (e.g. hospitals, power towers, wastewater treatment plants) are selected from OpenStreetMap (OSM) and categorized under these overarching CI systems. The high-detailed spatial data for infrastructure is combined with hazard data to derive the exposure of infrastructure to the various hazards. Moreover, we develop a vulnerability database for critical infrastructure based on the current body of literature to translate the exposure into asset damages.   

It is urgently needed to build robust and resilient infrastructure, so that they are able to cope with current and future natural hazards. Therefore, risk information should systematically be included for infrastructure planning, and the protection of the most vulnerable and critical assets needs to be improved. Limiting the direct impact of natural hazards on exposed assets will result in economic and social benefits that go beyond direct infrastructure damage.

How to cite: Nirandjan, S., Koks, E., de Moel, H., Verschuur, J., Wing, O., Aerts, J., and Ward, P.: Multi-hazard risk assessment of critical infrastructure at the global scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-547, 2022.

EGU22-956 | Presentations | NH10.1

Cascading Effects of Extreme Geohazards on Tenerife (Canary Islands) 

Marta López-Saavedra, Joan Martí, Jose Luis Rubio, and Karim Kelfoun

Extreme geohazards (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis) have the potential to inflict cascading effects whose associated risks are difficult to predict and prepare for. Thus, these events are generally not taken into account in hazard assessment. Anticipating the occurrence of such extreme events is thus key if our life-styles are to remain safe and sustainable. Volcanic islands are often the source of complex successions of disastrous events, as is evident from any examination, for instance, of the geological record of regions such as Hawaii, the Canary Islands, Reunion and Indonesia. The island of Tenerife in the Canary Archipelago is an excellent example of where cascading extreme hazards have occurred several times in the past and could occur again in the future. A cascading sequence involving a caldera-forming eruption, high-magnitude seismicity, mega-landslides and tsunamis occurred at least twice during the construction of this island. In order to understand the possible consequences of such processes if they were to reoccur, we simulated the extent and potential impact of a multiple, extreme geohazard episode similar to the last recorded one that took place on the island of Tenerife around 180 ka. If this event were to occur today, the PDCs resulting from the collapse of the eruptive column would devastate nearly the entire island. The caldera collapse would generate high-magnitude seismicity that would severely affect the central part of the island, corresponding to the caldera of Las Cañadas and its walls, the Icod Valley, the NE and NW rifts, and Bandas del Sur in the southeast. Seismic shocks could trigger a mega-landslide in the current Icod valley that would mobilise a thickness of about 500 m. The impact of this mass against the ocean would generate a first tsunami wave up to 200 m high that would sweep the coasts of the north of Tenerife in less than 10 minutes. This is probably the most catastrophic scenario for this region, and it sets a maximum limit to the range of situations that may occur in Tenerife in order to design a better risk management in this island without exceeding with minor events or falling short in case of events of greater impact. The implications of such a disastrous succession of events are analysed at local, regional and global scales, and the results obtained are discussed within the framework of disaster risk-reduction policies.

How to cite: López-Saavedra, M., Martí, J., Rubio, J. L., and Kelfoun, K.: Cascading Effects of Extreme Geohazards on Tenerife (Canary Islands), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-956, 2022.

EGU22-1818 | Presentations | NH10.1

How drought affects flood risk: positive / negative effects and feedbacks in different cases 

Anne Van Loon, Marlies Barendrecht, Ruben Weesie, Heidi Mendoza, Alessia Matanó, Johanna Koehler, Melanie Rohse, Marleen de Ruiter, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Philip Ward, Jeroen Aerts, Giuliano di Baldassarre, and Rosie Day

Droughts are long-lasting and have a range of cascading impacts on society. These impacts and their responses can influence the further development of the drought itself, but also continue into the period after the drought ended. Especially if society is hit by a next hydrological extreme event, heavy rainfall resulting in flooding, the effects of this may be increased or decreased by the preceding drought and its impacts and responses. We here present a review and a global assessment of cases of these events, based on scientific literature, NGO and governmental reports, and newspaper articles, to study the diversity of how drought affects flood risk. We find that the balance between the positive and negative effects of extreme rainfall after a long dry period is mostly dependent on the underlying vulnerability and the effect of specific responses, and is different for different countries, and for different sectors and groups in society. Based on our initial analysis of the collection of case studies, we see some emerging patterns. For example, in Europe, the USA and Australia, the highly managed water system with hard infrastructure and early-warning systems makes that in most cases the rainfall after drought are managed and adverse effects mitigated, but also lock-ins exist that can make feedbacks of either inaction or maladaptation result in increased economic losses. In Africa and Latin-America, with a fragile governance system, less hard infrastructure, and a more exposed population, extreme rainfall after drought brings relief and replenishment of water resources, but also increased impacts, conflict and displacement. Here, we hypothesise that impacts are unequally distributed in society, because of issues of power, access to land and water resources, inadequate soft infrastructures, etc. We will test this hypothesis with an in-depth qualitative study of local stakeholder knowledge of these human-water processes in selected case studies. The typology of drought-to-flood events that we developed can serve as a starting point for further research on the complexity of these cascading events.

How to cite: Van Loon, A., Barendrecht, M., Weesie, R., Mendoza, H., Matanó, A., Koehler, J., Rohse, M., de Ruiter, M., Mazzoleni, M., Ward, P., Aerts, J., di Baldassarre, G., and Day, R.: How drought affects flood risk: positive / negative effects and feedbacks in different cases, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1818, 2022.

EGU22-3005 | Presentations | NH10.1

Assessing risk managers' perceptions of risk mitigation strategies under a climate change and energy transition context. 

Jonathan Mille, Dr Danielle Charlton, Dr Stephen Edwards, and Prof Muki Haklay

Climate change and the energy transition are long-term challenges that could occur in a chaotic and uncertain way. The potential and varied impacts of these phenomena on existing human systems is leading to a rethinking of the ability of organisations to adapt life-sustaining services and business supply chains. However, the different scenarios surrounding these two phenomena are not always well understood by the public, by those who manage critical infrastructure, businesses, key institutions and organisations and sometimes even by risk managers. In order to assess whether current risk management strategies are able to cope with these two phenomena, it is important to understand the knowledge and perceptions of risk managers of the impacts of climate change and energy transition. 

 

This research investigates the perception of climate change and energy transition by risk managers in order to (i) assess their understanding of the impact of the energy transition and climate change on current lifeline services and business supply chains, (ii) evaluate the needs of risk managers to integrate these phenomena into risk management strategies. Results of ongoing semi-structured interviews and questionnaires will be shared. Overall, the aim of this research is to improve cross-sectoral risk management strategies by integrating a systemic approach into risk management methodology and risk reduction strategies. 

 

The research has been conducted in Chile, which is a country critical  to the global energy transition. Chile  is the world's primary producer of copper (30%) and ranks second in global lithium production (20%), two minerals coveted by different economic sectors and necessary for the global energy transition. In addition the region is exposed to numerous natural hazards, including climate related phenomena and associated extreme weather and temperature events. The integration of risk management strategies that incorporate both climate change and a change in energy supply is crucial in order to avoid significant disruptions and cascading effects in the supply chains of these increasingly sought-after minerals. 

How to cite: Mille, J., Charlton, D. D., Edwards, D. S., and Haklay, P. M.: Assessing risk managers' perceptions of risk mitigation strategies under a climate change and energy transition context., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3005, 2022.

EGU22-4118 | Presentations | NH10.1

Multi-risk analysis, mitigation and resilience in historical cities 

Chiara Arrighi, Marco Tanganelli, Vieri Cardinali, Maria Teresa Cristofaro, Mario De Stefano, and Fabio Castelli

The need for a shift from single to multi-risk analysis is widely recognized in international agreements, however the different multidisciplinary aspects, hazard metrics, data requirements and resolutions make quantitative multi-hazard and multi-vulnerability assessment rarely practiced. This work aims at describing a multi-risk assessment including present and mitigation scenarios and multi-risk resilience for historical art cities where the ability to recovery from a disaster passes through cultural heritage and related economic activities. Earthquakes and floods are considered to introduce a multi-risk workflow for buildings based on common metrics for exposure, vulnerability, and risk and a dynamic resilience model to simulate the post-event recovery. The method is applied to the historical city center of Florence (Italy), which is exposed to low-probability events and renowned for its unique cultural heritage. The application of the method suggests that the estimation of direct physical damages for earthquakes and floods requires a different characterization of vulnerability parameters. The resilience to earthquakes and floods shows significantly different recovery times that are linked to the severity of losses. The results of the application to the historical city center Florence show interesting differences in the spatial distribution of multi-risk, mostly depending on the evolution of the constructive typologies form the Middle-Ages to the XX century but also on the anthropic alteration of terrain morphology.  Further research would be needed to finding synergies in multi-risk mitigation and to better understand resilience to cascade risks.

Arrighi, C., Tanganelli, M., Cristofaro M.T., Cardinali, V., Marra, A.M., Castelli, F., De Stefano M.: Multi risk assessment in a historical city, Natural hazards, doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05125-6

How to cite: Arrighi, C., Tanganelli, M., Cardinali, V., Cristofaro, M. T., De Stefano, M., and Castelli, F.: Multi-risk analysis, mitigation and resilience in historical cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4118, 2022.

EGU22-4467 | Presentations | NH10.1 | Highlight

Multiple hazards and public risk perceptions under COVID-19 

Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Elena Raffetti, and Elena Mondino

The salience of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, have plausibly influenced how people characterize and assess multiple hazards. In this study, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden by integrating the results of nationwide surveys with information about the occurrence of hazardous events. These included more than 4,000 participants and were conducted in three different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic (August 2020, November 2020 and August 2021), corresponding to various levels of infection rates. In line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic, we found that people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. In both countries, individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Moreover, notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat. Lastly, we found that public perceptions of multiple hazards are deeply intertwined. These outcomes do no only increase our knowledge on the way in which global crises and hazardous events shape public risk perception across different contexts, but also have the potential to inform communication strategies aiming to reduce disaster risk while supporting climate change adaptation.

How to cite: Di Baldassarre, G., Raffetti, E., and Mondino, E.: Multiple hazards and public risk perceptions under COVID-19, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4467, 2022.

Children spend around five days a week in school for almost the entire year. Thus, it is sensible to best prepare them for coping with the potential occurrence of hazardous events while they are in school. The present research aims to explore the perceived importance and feasibility of implementing school-based disaster preparedness (SBDP) by the means of a case study of Ljungby municipality, Kronoberg county, Sweden. Through the means of semi-structured interviews, questionnaires and secondary data, the research unravelled how the respondents, in the form of both students and school staff perceive SBDP, and whether they see it as a potentially useful tool for their schools. In addition, the paper focused on understanding how this type of disaster preparedness can contribute to the municipality’s resilience. We concluded that the respondents understand the importance of SBDP and consider that the administrations at school and municipality level should focus more on ensuring that crisis plans are available, as well as on short- and long-term strategic preparedness. In addition, a shift in focus from training only staff to including students as valuable resources and considering their levels of preparedness was noticed by the interviewees, as well as the need to increase the awareness regarding the available SBDP items in each school. The existent crisis plans might need additional consideration in order to ensure their adaptability to schools’ needs, capacities, lessons learnt and locations. Further studies are needed in regard to whether students-aimed SBDP can be used for creating a sustainable SBDP culture within communities, municipalities and later on, entire countries.

How to cite: Covaciu, A.: School-based disaster preparedness: a route to societal resilience? The case study of Ljungby municipality, Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4673, 2022.

EGU22-5875 | Presentations | NH10.1

CLOUDS: A toolbox for decision support and climate risk 

Carla Sciarra, Massimo Dragan, Francesco Laio, Roberto Mezzalama, Luca Ridolfi, and Cristian Villata

The world is currently witnessing a rapid exacerbation of the effects of climate change on anthropic and environmental systems. Through the latest Assessment Report 6, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (and so the EU with the Climate Change Adaptation strategy) has launched an urgent call to action to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies, to improve the resilience of these systems. Climate models are complex, requiring multi-disciplinary knowledge about climatology, physics, hydrology, hydraulics, mathematics and statistics, among others, to be conceived and implemented. Complexity is not limited to the model preparation and functioning, but it extends to the interpretation of the outputs by the users. Models’ assumptions and the uncertainties related to the outcomes pose an issue of accessibility and usability in the short period, with consequences on the decision-makers' (corporations, and governments) ability to correctly address the issues at hand.
Several requirements to conduct climate risk assessment have been and are being developed by governmental and non-governmental organizations, particularly for infrastructure projects, and this is creating a demand for new services besides the traditional engineering and scientific services. Golder Associates is a global consulting firm providing services to governments and corporations, with a particular emphasis on the energy and infrastructure sectors. Golder has seen an increase in demand for Climate Risk Assessment services, requiring up-to-date climate data and projections to determine the current and future exposure, hazard, and vulnerability to climate change of its clients’ assets and activities. The firm stands as an example of the challenges in translating the results and uncertainties of climate models and data into adaptation and mitigation strategies, often leading to an increase in uncertainties in major capital investments.
To address this issue, we are developing a decision-support toolbox named CLOUDS (CLimate OUtputs for Decision Support) to help identify and calculate a set of key performance indicators and variables. The aim of CLOUDS is to provide a more straightforward representation of the complexity of the climate models’ outputs, still maintaining the accuracy of the estimates of climate-change effects but addressing the needs of decision-makers. CLOUDS consist of methodologies and routines, derived from the available suite of global circulation models, a set of indicators useful to decision-makers in preparing climate risk assessment analysis of existing assets and future infrastructure projects. The indicators are chosen considering their ability to define the exposure, hazards, and vulnerability to climate change in various contexts, and their connection with the output of the models. The advantage of creating such a toolbox in cooperation and collaboration with a consultancy firm stands in the opportunity to test and adapt the toolbox on a wide range of projects in different business sectors, geographic conditions, and sizes. Therefore, this allows us to study the effectiveness of CLOUDS and by comparing its performances in terms of time and cost with projects using other decision-making tools. Finally, CLOUDS fosters the transfer of knowledge between the academic, the governmental, and the business communities, required to face the consequences of climate change. 

How to cite: Sciarra, C., Dragan, M., Laio, F., Mezzalama, R., Ridolfi, L., and Villata, C.: CLOUDS: A toolbox for decision support and climate risk, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5875, 2022.

EGU22-6010 | Presentations | NH10.1

Risk workflow for CAScading and COmpounding hazards in COastal urban areas: The CASCO Project 

Cecilia I. Nievas, Laurens M. Bouwer, Morelia Urlaub, Alexey Androsov, Andrey Babeyko, Christian Berndt, Fabrice Cotton, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Jens Karstens, Heidrun Kopp, Danijel Schorlemmer, and Hui Tang

Extreme climatic and geophysical events pose a threat to societies and have the capacity to cause significant damage and losses whenever they occur, both in their immediate aftermath and in the medium- to long-term. Their consequences can be amplified even further when more than one event affects the same geographical areas within a short time. Be it cascading hazards, in which one event triggers the next, or simply hazards that happen to occur simultaneously (“compounding” hazards), estimation of their cumulative consequences is challenging because the action of one event affects the exposure and vulnerability to the next one. While the efforts from the research community to develop multi-hazard perspectives have increased considerably in recent years, multiple remaining challenges require strongly-coordinated efforts across different disciplines and areas of expertise to tackle them with the most appropriate tools.

With a multidisciplinary team of scientists from four different Helmholtz research centres in Germany, we have started working on the CASCO project (2022-2024), in which we will develop an integrated risk workflow for CAScading and COmpounding hazards in COastal urban areas by focusing on a series of events occurring around Mount Etna (Italy). The case-scenario starts with a strong earthquake that triggers a submarine collapse at the eastern flank of Mount Etna, an area already known to be unstable, and both the earthquake and the landslide trigger a tsunami that hits the coasts of Sicily and Calabria. Almost concomitantly, a heatwave or heavy rainfall happens to affect the same regions, further stressing the population that had been affected by the combined effects of the earthquake and tsunami.

The project will be directed towards the modelling of the cascading earthquake, landslide and tsunami events, the compounding heatwave and rainfall, as well as their immediate impacts in terms of cumulative damage and casualties. Moreover, the medium- to long-term response in urban dynamics and the effect of these extreme events on the economic development of the affected populations will be explored.

By focusing on a tangible scenario, CASCO will not only tackle the challenges associated with bringing together the whole risk chain (which will be valid beyond our case-study) but also produce outcomes that help increase awareness of such extreme events and the need for societies to develop suitable strategies to strengthen their resilience and improve their disaster response.

How to cite: Nievas, C. I., Bouwer, L. M., Urlaub, M., Androsov, A., Babeyko, A., Berndt, C., Cotton, F., Gómez Zapata, J. C., Karstens, J., Kopp, H., Schorlemmer, D., and Tang, H.: Risk workflow for CAScading and COmpounding hazards in COastal urban areas: The CASCO Project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6010, 2022.

EGU22-6230 | Presentations | NH10.1

A Systems Dependency Framework for Individual, Multi- and Systemic Risks 

Stefan Hochreiner-Stigler and Robert Sakic Trogrlic

ABSTRACT: New approaches for the assessment and management of individual, multi- and systemic risks are needed. In this work, we present a framework for the assessment and management of these risks based on the system dependency perspective. We suggest that dependencies may act as one guiding principle not only for assessing such risks but also for evaluating risk management options. The two most extreme cases within the suggested systems dependency perspective are the independence and full dependency state, representing the two ends of the risk continuum. Such a perspective enables an integration of risk management strategies within a coherent framework across geographical and governance scales (i.e., from local to global). Furthermore, individual and multi-hazard risks can be tackled simultaneously as well as independently through the assumption of different strengths of connectedness during a disaster event. The real-world challenges of risk bearers (e.g., households, businesses, governments, supranational institutions) to account for such interdependencies are discussed within the context of optimal complexity.

 

Keywords: Individual Risk, Multi-Risk, Compound Risk, Systemic Risk, Dependencies, Optimal Complexity.

How to cite: Hochreiner-Stigler, S. and Sakic Trogrlic, R.: A Systems Dependency Framework for Individual, Multi- and Systemic Risks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6230, 2022.

EGU22-6551 | Presentations | NH10.1

Increasing compound concurrent hot day and night extremes in five big cities of Switzerland 

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Veruska Muccione, Raphael Neukom, Christian Huggel, and Nadine Salzmann

The interaction of multiple hazards across various spatial and temporal scales typically causes compound climate and weather extreme events. Compound concurrent hot day and night extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are of greater concern for health than individual hot days or hot nights. Continuous day and nighttime heatwaves can exacerbate human discomfort and therefore increase the risks of heat-related morbidity and mortality. However, little is known about the evolution of such events in the observed and projected climate. Four compound event types, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events were introduced in the literature that facilitates the selection of the proper approaches in the study of compound extreme events. The impact of a single or the combination of multiple types could shape more severe extreme events. In our study, we considered the temporally compounding and multivariate types and used climate observations (1981-2020) and high-resolution bias-corrected climate model scenarios of Switzerland (CH2018). Our analyses show that the average frequency and intensity of compound consecutive hot days and nights increase in five big cities of Switzerland until 2100 under RCP4.5. We projected 1.83 ± 0.07 (days decade−1) for Basel, 1.57 ± 0.1 (days decade−1) for Bern, 2.34 ± 0.13 (days decade−1) for Geneva, 2.55 ± 0.17 (days decade−1) for Lugano, and 1.93 ± 0.12 (days decade−1) for Zürich. Moreover, we found an increase in the intensity of summertime (April-October) compound hot extremes days and night in Basel (0.28 ± 0.03 °C decade−1), Bern (0.23 ± 0.02°C decade−1), Geneva (0.37 ± 0.04 °C decade−1), Lugano (0.4 ±0.07°C decade−1), and Zürich (0.44 ± 0.05°C decade−1).

How to cite: Ashraf Vaghefi, S., Muccione, V., Neukom, R., Huggel, C., and Salzmann, N.: Increasing compound concurrent hot day and night extremes in five big cities of Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6551, 2022.

EGU22-6931 | Presentations | NH10.1

The impacts of an extreme event: inventory, susceptibility, and exposure to landslides and debris-rich floods following Cyclone Idai in two mountainous districts of Zimbabwe 

Antoine Dille, Olivier Dewitte, Jente Broeckx, Koen Verbist, Andile Sindiso Dube, Jean Poesen, and Matthias Vanmaercke

Extreme rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones can have devastating impacts along the cyclone path. In mountainous regions, these rainfalls may trigger up to thousands of landslides, themselves feeding destructive debris-rich floods impacting downstream valleys sometimes over tens or hundreds of kilometres. Such compound events were observed in the mountains of eastern Zimbabwe alongside Cyclone Idai in March 2019. Hitting an area of high population vulnerability and exposure, this event had very-high human and geomorphologic impacts in the region. In the framework of the UNESCO project BE-RESILIENT Zimbabwe (funded by World Bank and managed by UNOPS), we analysed the consequences of the landslides associated with this event in the Chimanimani and Chipinge districts of eastern Zimbabwe (~8000 km²). Aiming at a rapid evaluation in a data-scarce region, we built on existing tools and open access satellite remote sensing and GIS data to obtain an exhaustive inventory of the spatial extent of the impacted area, and ultimately an assessment of the population exposure in the region. We mapped over 14 000 (mostly shallow) landslides associated with this single event. Alongside a high population vulnerability, the extreme impacts of the landslides were associated with the very large mobility – up to kilometre-long runout/deposition areas are found – of the landslides. To account for this, we distinguish three types of processes (zones) in our inventory, susceptibility, and exposure analyses: landslide source/depletion, landslide runout and debris-rich floods. This discrimination is key for apprehending the hazard imposed by landslides in the study area, and finally for properly evaluating the population exposure to this hazard. While this work aims primarily at guiding land use planning, mitigation, restoration, and prevention in the Chimanimani and Chipinge districts of eastern Zimbabwe, it also offers a case for the use of simple yet powerful approaches to assess the impacts of an extreme event and the exploitation of the astonishing amount of quality open access data now available for every corner of the globe.   

How to cite: Dille, A., Dewitte, O., Broeckx, J., Verbist, K., Sindiso Dube, A., Poesen, J., and Vanmaercke, M.: The impacts of an extreme event: inventory, susceptibility, and exposure to landslides and debris-rich floods following Cyclone Idai in two mountainous districts of Zimbabwe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6931, 2022.

EGU22-8460 | Presentations | NH10.1

Climate X: an interdisciplinary approach to projecting multiple climate-related risks and impacts 

Claire Burke, James Brennan, Hamish Mitchell, Laura Ramsamy, Markela Zeneli, and Kamil Kluza

With ever increasing risks and impacts from climate change, there is an urgent need for adaptation information which is relevant and useful to policy makers, businesses and the general public. At Climate X we use an interdisciplinary, impacts-motivated approach to adaptation; combining multiple climate and hazard models to give a holistic view of risk, and engaging end-users at every stage. Our first version product can project the risks and impacts of climate change-related pluvial and fluvial flooding, extreme heat, landslides, subsidence, and sea level rise, all at street level UK-wide. We quantify these risks and the financial costs they could incur under low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios out to 2080. We deliver risk and impact assessments via an easy-to-use interface, along with relevant and decision-able risk summaries. Aligning robust science at scale with user requirements and expectations is not without its challenges. I will outline our approach to multi-hazard climate risk modelling, and discuss some of the successes and challenges we have had in developing a tool which is aligned with the needs of stakeholders, businesses and other end users.

How to cite: Burke, C., Brennan, J., Mitchell, H., Ramsamy, L., Zeneli, M., and Kluza, K.: Climate X: an interdisciplinary approach to projecting multiple climate-related risks and impacts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8460, 2022.

EGU22-8911 | Presentations | NH10.1

Learning from the Covid-19 pandemic to advance multi-hazard risk management: a critical analysis of the Italian Red Cross emergency management data 

Stefano Terzi, Silvia de Angeli, Davide Miozzo, Lorenzo Stefano Massucchielli, Fabio Carturan, Joerg Szarzynski, and Giorgio Boni

The long-lasting Covid-19 pandemic emergency that the world has been experiencing for more than two years is dramatically challenging all national emergency management systems. For the first time in recent history, our society has been dealing with a global slow-onset disaster, whose emergency phase is lasting for such an extended period, with varying levels of intensity, even with well-defined cycles. Furthermore, the pandemic has interacted with other disasters that occurred during the last years all over the world (e.g., the earthquake in Croatia, the tropical cyclone Harold, or the devastating floods in Western Europe including Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands) underlining the compound and cascading nature of disasters. The complex conditions of Covid-19 (and of slow-onsets in general) and their temporal and spatial overlaps with other natural and man-made hazards have highlighted the limitations of the traditional Disaster Risk Management Cycle (DRMC) to deal with complex multi-hazard risk events.

Our research aims to identify and provide evidence of the main limitations of the current DRMC paradigm when dealing with slow-onset risk events considering the potential interactions with other hazards which lead to the creation of complex multi-hazard risk conditions.

Existing weaknesses of the current DRMC are investigated starting from the lessons learned during the Covid-19 pandemic. Specifically, we have considered and analysed data provided by the Italian Red Cross on the management of past and ongoing emergencies including the Covid-19 pandemic. We identified those critical risk management conditions and negative feedback loops triggered or exacerbated by slow-onset risks and multi-hazard risk events. In particular, our results indicate: (i) an initial phase shift between the actual pandemic emergency conditions (i.e. intensive care units occupancy) and the Italian Red Cross emergency response (i.e. number of emergency operators), showing the need for an adaptation phase when dealing with long-onset hazard risks such as pandemics; (ii) a reduction of the coping capacity (for all the hazards) due to the number of resources deployed to manage the Covid-19 emergency; (iii) a reduction of preparedness activities (including, e.g. training or exercises), due to the continuous emergency phase imposed by Covid-19, which will result in an overall weakening of the risk management system.

The analysis has thus highlighted the need for a revised Disaster Risk Management framework, in which prevention, response, and recovery/rehabilitation operate simultaneously rather than sequentially in complex multi-hazard risk scenarios.

Finally, our study provides insights and lessons learned from the management of the current pandemic seen through the lens of a multi-hazard risk perspective that can be transferred to other slow-onset hazards such as droughts. These results call for improvements of risk management plans within the current national/regional civil protection mechanisms as well as international humanitarian assistance, emphasizing the ultimate need for regional coordination and collaboration.

How to cite: Terzi, S., de Angeli, S., Miozzo, D., Massucchielli, L. S., Carturan, F., Szarzynski, J., and Boni, G.: Learning from the Covid-19 pandemic to advance multi-hazard risk management: a critical analysis of the Italian Red Cross emergency management data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8911, 2022.

EGU22-9686 | Presentations | NH10.1

A State-of-the-Art Approach to Modeling Future Multi-Hazard Risk, supporting People-Centred Decision Making 

Gemma Cremen and the Tomorrow's Cities Early Career Risk Working Group

Numerous approaches to multi-hazard risk modelling and quantification have already been proposed in the literature and/or are well established in practice. However, most of these procedures are designed to focus on risk in the context of current static exposure and vulnerability and are therefore limited in their ability to support decisions related to the future, as yet partially unbuilt, urban landscape. This work outlines an end-to-end risk modelling framework that explicitly addresses this specific challenge, forming the computational engine of the innovative Tomorrow’s Cities decision support environment. The framework is designed to consider the multi-hazard risks of tomorrow’s urban environment, using a simulation-based approach to rigorously capture the uncertainties inherent in future projections of exposure as well as physical and social vulnerability. The framework also advances the state-of-practice in future disaster risk modelling by additionally: (1) providing a harmonised methodology for integrating physical and social impacts of disasters that facilitates flexible characterisation of risk metrics beyond physical damage/asset losses; and (2) incorporating a participatory, people-centred approach to risk-informed decision making. It can be used to support decision making on policies related to future urban planning and design, accounting for various stakeholder perspectives on risk. The framework is showcased using the physical and social environment of Tomorrowville, an expanding synthetic city that has been specifically designed to capture distinct dynamic features of developing cities as part of the Tomorrow’s Cities project. 

How to cite: Cremen, G. and the Tomorrow's Cities Early Career Risk Working Group: A State-of-the-Art Approach to Modeling Future Multi-Hazard Risk, supporting People-Centred Decision Making, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9686, 2022.

EGU22-9704 | Presentations | NH10.1

Characterising the dynamic physical vulnerability of Tomorrow’s Cities to multiple natural hazards 

Roberto Gentile, Vibek Manandhar, Gemma Cremen, Luke Jenkins, Emin Mentese, Ramesh Guragain, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey

During their expansion, cities are increasingly exposed to various risks from different natural hazards. Moreover, different drivers of these risks may evolve over time due to several endogenous and exogenous factors. In the context of proactive risk-informed, people-centred, and pro-poor urban planning and design, capturing the above dynamic effects is crucial. This study focuses on modelling the time-dependent physical fragility and vulnerability (i.e., the likelihood of damage and losses as a function of a hazard intensity measure) of building stocks. Given a set of relevant hazards for a case-study region, this research combines existing methodologies and datasets to 1) match the relevant building classes (i.e., construction types) in the case-study database with existing fragility and/or vulnerability models; 2) use state-of-the-art numerical and/or empirical methods to develop fragility/vulnerability models not already available, supplementing existing models; 3) identify and account for the factors affecting the time dependency of the above fragility/vulnerability models (e.g. ageing of buildings, the interaction of different hazards); 4) create a Geographic Information System (GIS) vulnerability database for integration within a broader risk model. The proposed approach offers a reasonable trade-off between the refinement of the considered time-dependent vulnerability assessment and the expected computational complexity of a building portfolio multi-hazard risk model. The proposed approach is demonstrated for the realistic urban prototype “Tomorrowville”, considering earthquakes, floods, and debris flows as case-study hazards.

How to cite: Gentile, R., Manandhar, V., Cremen, G., Jenkins, L., Mentese, E., Guragain, R., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Characterising the dynamic physical vulnerability of Tomorrow’s Cities to multiple natural hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9704, 2022.

EGU22-9946 | Presentations | NH10.1

Mapping future exposure to multiple hazards in Tomorrow’s Cities: the Khokana, Kathmandu, Nepal case study 

Aditi Dhakal, Suresh Chaudhary, Ramesh Guragain, Vibek Manandhar, Roberto Gentile, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey

Exposure to multiple hazards can create many risks, including some related to human life and physical infrastructure. Therefore, it is important to develop approaches for characterising and controlling future urban development in a risk-informed manner. Towards this aim, this study develops a future risk-sensitive exposure-mapping methodology using the Khokana area of Kathmandu (Nepal) as a case study. Characterisation of future exposure is carried out on the basis of literature reviews, a thorough review of three future urban development options prepared by the Kathmandu Valley Development Authority (KVDA), discussions with experts, and data obtained from recent detailed building and road assessment surveys of the existing urban system. This characterisation is then used, along with future multi-hazard intensity predictions, to create a risk-informed masterplan layout of buildings and infrastructure that appropriately balances the demands of an expanding population. The developed methodology forms the backbone of the urbanisation component within the Tomorrow’s Cities Decision Support Environment, and can be generally applied to risk-sensitive urban planning in any context.

How to cite: Dhakal, A., Chaudhary, S., Guragain, R., Manandhar, V., Gentile, R., Cremen, G., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Mapping future exposure to multiple hazards in Tomorrow’s Cities: the Khokana, Kathmandu, Nepal case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9946, 2022.

EGU22-10137 | Presentations | NH10.1

Physics based simulations of multiple hazards for risk sensitive land use planning 

Luke Jenkins, Maggie Creed, Karim Tarbali, Manoranjan Muthusamy, Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Jeremy Phillips, Hugh Sinclair, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey

Rapid urban expansion in many parts of the world is increasing exposure to natural hazards, which are often exacerbated by climate change. We present the results of physics-based simulations for various flooding, earthquake, and debris-flow scenarios located in a region considered for future urban expansion. The effect of climate change, in terms of increasing rainfall intensity, is incorporated into some of the hazard scenarios. We show that a future urban area can be affected by: (1) multiple hazards at different locations; (2) multiple hazards at a particular location. We demonstrate that this information can be used to shape decision making around future social and built environment developments towards risk-informed future urban planning. In summary, this research demonstrates the importance of considering multiple hazards when designing disaster-resilient urban landscapes of tomorrow. 

How to cite: Jenkins, L., Creed, M., Tarbali, K., Muthusamy, M., Trogrlic, R. S., Phillips, J., Sinclair, H., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Physics based simulations of multiple hazards for risk sensitive land use planning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10137, 2022.

EGU22-10244 | Presentations | NH10.1

Unleashing the power of the interdisciplinary in disaster risk reduction: reflections from an early career researcher group developing a risk-informed decision support environment for Tomorrow’s Cities 

Maria Evangelina Filippi, Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Gemma Cremen, Alejandro Barcena, Emin Mentese, Roberto Gentile, Maggie Creed, Luke Jenkins, Manoranjan Muthusamy, Karim Tarbali, Aditi Dhakal, Vibek Manandhar, Miksen Rai, Sangita Adhikari, Mehmet Kalaycioglu, Bosibori Barake, Dilli Prasad Poudel, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey

The concept of disaster risk is multidisciplinary by nature. Responding to disasters and increasingly preventing new and reducing existing disaster risk has become the backbone of various disciplines. Yet, moving from various disciplinary perspectives to integrated approaches remains a fundamental challenge. This talk reflects on the experience of a group of early-career researchers, including physical scientists, engineers and social scientists from different organisations and countries, who came together to lead the refinement, operationalisation and testing of a risk-informed decision support environment (DSE) for Tomorrow’s Cities. Drawing on the notion of “boundary objects” and reflexive elicitation, members of the group explored enabling and hindering factors to interdisciplinary research across four case studies that unfolded between July-December 2021, namely: operationalisation process of the DSE; development of a testbed as a demonstration case for the implementation of the DSE; consolidation of frequently asked questions about the DSE; and elaboration of a multi-media communication tool for outreach to various audiences. The study argues that enablers of interdisciplinarity can be synthesised across a range of factors, including exogenous, governing, learning and attitudinal, and that diversity of boundary objects as convening spaces for disciplinary interaction can propel integration. It is further suggested that a similar rationale can be applied when moving towards co-producing knowledge with non-academic actors in a transdisciplinary manner. Strengthening the interdisciplinary capacities of early career researchers across disciplines and geographies is a fundamental step and promising pathway towards transformation.

How to cite: Filippi, M. E., Sakic Trogrlic, R., Cremen, G., Barcena, A., Mentese, E., Gentile, R., Creed, M., Jenkins, L., Muthusamy, M., Tarbali, K., Dhakal, A., Manandhar, V., Rai, M., Adhikari, S., Kalaycioglu, M., Barake, B., Poudel, D. P., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Unleashing the power of the interdisciplinary in disaster risk reduction: reflections from an early career researcher group developing a risk-informed decision support environment for Tomorrow’s Cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10244, 2022.

EGU22-10895 | Presentations | NH10.1

Stakeholder Perceptions of Multi-hazards and Implications for Urban Disaster Risk Reduction in Istanbul 

Emin Yahya Menteşe, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Ekbal Hussein, Harriet Thompson, Emine Öner, Aslıhan Yolcu, and Bruce D. Malamud

Istanbul is a large urban area exposed to many natural hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, tsunami, flooding, and drought. In addition to the potential risk from these single hazards, their interrelationships can  amplify overall risk, potentially overwhelming the capacity of governments, communities, and systems limits. Here, in order to investigate how multi hazards and their interrelationships are understood and considered in the decision making process in Istanbul, we have conducted two workshops and three interviews with 22 expert practitioners with a wide range of natural hazard relevant roles in Istanbul institutions.

We focused our activities on: (i) Identifying multi-hazard interrelationships relevant for Istanbul of tomorrow and creating multi-hazard interrelationship scenarios. (ii) Understanding the usefulness of multi-hazard thinking in the context of different stakeholders, and (iii) Exploring barriers and opportunities for the integration of multi-hazard thinking into operational practice. We find in the Istanbul urban context that (i) single hazards are calculated, examined, and incorporated within urban development and planning process at a significant level, (ii) the participants’ perception of multi-hazard is mostly focused on cascading single hazards where one triggers another, excluding increasing probability and compound hazard interrelationships, (iii) that although multi-hazard approaches are taken into account at some levels in Istanbul, the main focus is still mainly on single hazards, (iv) there is a lack of interaction amongst many  hazard related institutions that are often single-hazard focused, thus hindering disaster risk reduction in a holistic and integrated way.

Among the multi hazard types, earthquakes induced hazards such as landslides, tsunami and floods are highlighted by the participants often. It is notable that climate change related scenarios such as heavy rainfalls and heatwaves are also mentioned during conversations. Our results show that multi-hazard scenarios have the potential to improve DRR in Istanbul as there are some studies that already address the multi hazard perspective to a certain extent and knowledge on potential multi hazards is significant among experts. However, changes in policies, legislative environment, and  governance arrangements are needed, as well as further physical characterisation of interrelationships. 

How to cite: Menteşe, E. Y., Trogrlić, R. Š., Hussein, E., Thompson, H., Öner, E., Yolcu, A., and Malamud, B. D.: Stakeholder Perceptions of Multi-hazards and Implications for Urban Disaster Risk Reduction in Istanbul, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10895, 2022.

EGU22-11909 | Presentations | NH10.1

An integrated assessment of multi-hazard events in Sweden 

Johanna Mård, Örjan Bodin, and Daniel Nohrstedt

Sweden is prone to various natural hazards, including wildfires, storms, floods, cloud bursts and landslides, which have caused considerable economic losses in the past. Natural hazard risk is also expected to increase in several regions in Sweden due to climate change. However, considerable knowledge gaps remain on how to effectively mitigate societal effects of multiple natural hazard events. Current risk assessments often focus on single hazards within distinct administrative boundaries whereas multi-hazard or compound events, which often transcend these boundaries, are rarely accounted for. This poses a problem – particularly in vulnerable geographical areas where the risk for compound events with significant societal impacts are high. Here we present a new project that will address this knowledge gap, with the aims to identify underlying factors of multi-hazard events in Sweden, and to investigate capacities among public and private actors to mitigate these impacts via effective collaboration. The first outcome is an integrated natural hazards assessment that reveals how climate-related natural hazard events have evolved over time and space in Sweden since the 1970s, and what areas have been most exposed to multi-hazard events. These results provide knowledge on the spatiotemporal distribution of natural hazard events, including compound events, which is critical when analysing their underlying drivers.

How to cite: Mård, J., Bodin, Ö., and Nohrstedt, D.: An integrated assessment of multi-hazard events in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11909, 2022.

EGU22-12031 | Presentations | NH10.1

Theoretical framework for environmental risk assessment due to Natech event 

Riccardo Giusti, Marcello Arosio, and Mario Martina

Natural hazards pose a significant threat to industrial areas and their surrounding environment, in particular considering that extreme natural events are expected to occur more frequently and exposure will increase due to urbanization growth. A NATECH event is defined as a NAtural hazard triggering TECHnological disasters which could affect people, the environment, other facilities and systems. NATECH research began less than thirty years ago and in the last decade these complex phenomena have been investigated by academia and industry. However, NATECH knowledge and methodology have some gaps that must be filled for better risk prevention and management. In fact, it is mainly focused on technological vulnerability or assessing its occurrence probability, yet possible consequences are only partial investigated. The aim of this study is to develop a theoretical framework to assess the environmental impact on soil and groundwater due to NATECH events triggered by flood. This is accomplished by harmonizing existing algorithms and methods for the natural and technological risk component with the new developed environmental soil and groundwater risk component into a coherent modelling chain. The proposed framework utilizes data from natural driven forces (e.g. flood height and velocity) and their probabilities of occurrence. These driven forces are applied to storage tanks through an existing vulnerability model. In order to evaluate resistance pressures, the model requires tank geometries and hypothetical filling level distribution. In addition, a simplified environmental risk model is applied at site scale depending on the stored product (e.g. gasoline, petroleum, etc.) in order to evaluate an affected area and its potential degree of contamination of soil and groundwater.  The proposed framework is applied to a realistic case study and results and critical points would be discussed. We believe that the general theoretical framework could be adapted to any natural triggering phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, lighting, etc.), in order to assess environmental impacts due to NATECH events.

How to cite: Giusti, R., Arosio, M., and Martina, M.: Theoretical framework for environmental risk assessment due to Natech event, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12031, 2022.

EGU22-12300 | Presentations | NH10.1

A Novel Decision Support Environment for Risk Informed Urban Planning in Tomorrow’s Cities 

John McCloskey, Mark Pelling, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso, Ramesh Guragain, and Vera Bukachi

This talk introduces the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenge Research Fund (GCRF) Urban Disaster Risk Hub, the “Tomorrow’s Cities” project. Working internationally, the ultimate goal of the Hub is to reduce disaster risk for the poor and most marginalised in tomorrow’s cities by facilitating a transition from reactive crisis management to proactive risk-informed, people-centred, and pro-poor urban planning and design. Against a backdrop of ever-increasing human populations, urbanisation, social inequality, and climate change, this ambition is critically time-sensitive.

This talk specifically discusses the development of a state-of-practice decision support environment (DSE) that advances beyond the limits of current conventional risk models by placing knowledge co-production at the heart of risk-informed decision-making. Through a democratisation of the concept of risk, we explore understandings of risk that recognise the life experiences of the poor and most marginalised social groups. The DSE explicitly incorporates these diverse understandings to enable the iterative assessment of different policies, urban plans, and interventions in terms of their disaster-related impacts on future economic, environmental, and social objectives cooperatively agreed with relevant stakeholders. These assessments are underpinned by interdisciplinary open-source tools and processes that include: state-of-the-art physics-based multi-hazard and physical vulnerability models, innovative methods for harmonising physical and social sciences, and rigorous capacity-strengthening and knowledge exchange strategies.

How to cite: McCloskey, J., Pelling, M., Cremen, G., Galasso, C., Guragain, R., and Bukachi, V.: A Novel Decision Support Environment for Risk Informed Urban Planning in Tomorrow’s Cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12300, 2022.

EGU22-12597 | Presentations | NH10.1

Good practices in disaster risk and crisis management for civil protection purposes: an integrated multi-hazard risk approach 

Andrea Prota, Mauro Dolce, Claudia Morsut, Domingos Xavier Viegas, Miguel Almeida, Chiara Casarotti, Daniela Di Bucci, Francesca Giuliani, Maria Polese, and Nicola Rebora

The last years have demonstrated the complex interplay and impacts that hazards can have on people’s lives, livelihoods and health, especially when multiple adverse events occur at the same time. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 provides a solid foundation for disaster risk management (DRM) by specifically calling for multi-hazard and solution-driven research to address gaps, obstacles and interdependencies of disaster risks. However, most of the practices in DRM still adopt a single-hazard approach, which may not be sufficient for addressing the social, economic, educational, and environmental challenges of multi-hazard risk scenarios. Besides, questions remain about whether disaster risk is actually treated in a science-policy context, as demanded in the Sendai Framework, thus operating in the overlapping space of scientific research, political decision-making and public action. The large number of actors involved in, and affected by, multi-risk disasters make it harder to transfer knowledge into risk management decisions and set a two-way process for communicating such decisions and for collecting feedback from stakeholders. To face these challenges, the project ROADMAP (European observatory on disaster risk and crisis management best practices) aims to establish a European “Doctrine on disaster risk and crisis management”, funded on the cooperation among the scientific community and the DRM authorities. The project is developed by diverse specialized institutions from Italy (The Consortium Italian Centre for Risk Reduction “CI3R” and the Italian Civil Protection Department “ICPD”), Portugal (Association for the Development of Industrial Aerodynamics “ADAI”) and Norway (University of Stavanger). To achieve its goal, the project is identifying good practices in multi-hazard risk scenarios, by singling out the experiences in EU Member States and beyond the EU borders. Emphasis is given to the cumulative hazards that countries have had to face over the past two years, characterized by the spread of a global health emergency induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Good practices are selected accounting for their capacity to produce results in the diverse DRM phases, as they stand out in terms of effectiveness, reach, feasibility, sustainability, and transferability. Such practices are not intended as static instruments, but rather as a guidance to be adapted if the needs of the users change and/or conditions in the application field evolve. This contribution will present the preliminary results of the research project and discuss how to create an efficient multi-hazard disaster management, focusing on a solution explorer platform collecting the good practices. When analysed closely it becomes apparent that there is a need for reinforcing actions dealing with multi-hazard disasters and for documenting successful stories and lessons learned within a bottom-up approach. By and large, it is envisaged that ROADMAP will contribute to increase access to information on DRM and disaster risk reduction (DRR) by systematically collecting, reviewing and analysing past and ongoing experiences and making them readily available and usable to communities and practitioners. The provision of good-practice guidance about a broad range of structural and non-structural risk management measures enables sharing information on how to overcome the obstacles and increasing the understanding of DRM solutions.

How to cite: Prota, A., Dolce, M., Morsut, C., Viegas, D. X., Almeida, M., Casarotti, C., Di Bucci, D., Giuliani, F., Polese, M., and Rebora, N.: Good practices in disaster risk and crisis management for civil protection purposes: an integrated multi-hazard risk approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12597, 2022.

EGU22-12794 | Presentations | NH10.1

Mapping community exposure to extreme heat and flood hazards in the Carolinas 

Antonia Sebastian and Kathie Dello

Recent extreme weather events have drawn attention to how multiple climate disasters can combine to create negative social and economic consequences across sectors. Perhaps the most concerning of these multi-hazard scenarios, is the combination of heat stress, characterized as high temperature and humidity, and severe flooding, which can result in devastating socioeconomic and health consequences for communities. For example, heat stress may precede a flood event, amplifying its impact (e.g., British Columbia (2021)) and leading to increased fatalities and injuries from the event; on the other hand, infrastructure outages caused by severe flooding may increase the vulnerability of individuals to heat stress following the event, as is often the case after tropical cyclones (e.g., Hurricanes Ike (2008) and Maria (2017)). Managing future climate risks will require a better understanding of the frequency of occurrence of compound heat and flood stress and the space and time scales over which they interact. As a case study, this research develops a framework for measuring community exposure to flood and heat extremes applied to North Carolina, USA. Leveraging parcel-scale records of insured flood damage, we generate a spatially- and temporally-explicit database of historical flood extents since 1970, and couple it to a reanalysis of extreme heat events measured in terms of Wetbulb index. We then identify spatial and temporal clusters of extreme heat and flood events in North Carolina. This work will enable improved vulnerability and climate risk assessment and enable community to identify more resilient pathways to climate adaptation. The work is part of a larger Carolinas Collaborative on Climate, Health and Equity (C3HE) project which focuses on the cooccurrence of extremes and aims to measure the socioeconomic and health outcomes in partnership with Carolina communities.

How to cite: Sebastian, A. and Dello, K.: Mapping community exposure to extreme heat and flood hazards in the Carolinas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12794, 2022.

EGU22-12811 | Presentations | NH10.1

Multi-hazard, cross-border storm risk assessment in the Alps. First insights from the TRANS-ALP project 

Kathrin Renner, Piero Campalani, Alice Crespi, Roberta Dainese, Katharina Enigl, Klaus Haslinger, Massimiliano Pittore, Matthias Plörer, Stefan Steger, Fabrizio Tagliavini, Michaela Teich, and Marc Zebisch

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as late autumn and winter storms are being increasingly observed in southern Europe and particularly in the Alps, where they threaten environmental and socio-economic systems. An example is the 2018 Vaia (also known as Adrian) storm (Oct 28-Nov 04), which strongly affected Italy, Austria, France and Switzerland. Over the past decades several damaging storms strongly impacted (i.e., caused adverse consequences on assets, people, infrastructure or the environment) mostly those countries on the northern side of the Alps (e.g., Vivian 1990, Lothar 1999, Gudrun 2005, Kyrill 2007). The Vaia storm however affected the southern side, downing more than 8 million cubic meters of forests and causing extensive damage due to a combination of multiple compounded hazards including heavy rain, flooding and landslides, and strong winds. The event caused 12 fatalities and an economic loss exceeding 3 billion Euro. This storm has been considered exceptional yet could foreshadow multi-hazard phenomena whose frequency and intensity are likely to be influenced by climate change. In such conditions, currently available risk assessment and prevention tools may prove inadequate, particularly on a cross-border level and in vulnerable mountainous regions. Therefore, there is a need to provide decision makers and stakeholders with improved and harmonised tools and standardised frameworks to conduct efficient (climate) risk assessments for cross-border areas. Current and future impacts need to be systematically investigated to adopt prevention and disaster risk reduction measures for the mitigation of inherent risks. In its first year the TRANS-ALP project analysed the occurrence of severe weather events that can be classified as extreme and their specific features in the cross-border area between Austria and Italy (Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol and Veneto). Furthermore, a systematic review of the mechanisms in place to collect impact, damage and loss data has been conducted to allow for a better conceptualisation of the different risk pathways that come into play in case of intense storms. Our findings indicate a noticeable increase of extreme weather conditions that can lead to adverse consequences, also from a systemic perspective, and a complex interplay of damaging factors and chained impacts that can extend for years after the occurrence of the generating events. The findings also highlight the importance of a comprehensive multi-hazard and transdisciplinary approach to storm risk assessment within a framework harmonising Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) instances. In this contribution the first results and insights of the project will be presented and discussed.

The described research activities have been carried out within the framework of the DG-ECHO project TRANS-ALP funded by the European Union (Grant Agreement 101004843).

How to cite: Renner, K., Campalani, P., Crespi, A., Dainese, R., Enigl, K., Haslinger, K., Pittore, M., Plörer, M., Steger, S., Tagliavini, F., Teich, M., and Zebisch, M.: Multi-hazard, cross-border storm risk assessment in the Alps. First insights from the TRANS-ALP project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12811, 2022.

EGU22-1187 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Resilience service technologies for identifying climate change adaptation gaps 

Finn Laurien, Ian Mccallum, Stefan Velev, and Reinhard Mechler

Communities around the world in natural hazard-prone regions are increasingly aware of the benefits of using spatio-temporal data to better understand their predicament. With the advent of new service technologies, such as web mapping, free and open satellite data and the proliferation of mobile technologies, the possibilities for both understanding and improving community resilience are on the rise. Resilience service technologies aim to provide risk-informed products in easy-to-use manner for enabling stakeholders to implement efficient and practical resilience activities in their communities.

This paper presents a service-oriented approach aiming to harnessing risks and resilience data in hazard-prone regions for raise awareness regarding early warning systems, safety conditions of minorities in community groups and plan for long-term resilience strategies. With our resilience dashboard platform, we utilize information of various risk and resilience services to identify and visualize susceptible hotspots for decision-makers. Our resilience dashboard also brings about the coordination between different web services to retrieve the features and impose the thresholds. We co-developed with local humanitarian and development teams the resilience dashboard which is designed to put geo-spatial flood resilience data into the hands of decision-makers. We identified three use cases which consider an added value of resilience service technologies by focusing on early warning systems, targeting minority groups and long-term resilience planning in Nicaragua, Nepal and Bangladesh. We will demonstrate the context-specific needs of resilience services technologies, how to target user needs and how it could potentially be scaled up and applied to similar regions around the world.

How to cite: Laurien, F., Mccallum, I., Velev, S., and Mechler, R.: Resilience service technologies for identifying climate change adaptation gaps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1187, 2022.

Climate model output is widely used as input to impact models. Such applications include hydrological, crop, energy modeling, and more.  However, due to model deficiencies and the stochastic nature of climate processes, some variables (e.g., daily precipitation) tend to present systematic biases and deviations from the observed conditions. This is particularly important when studying high-impact extreme events. The present study aims to develop a Copula-based method for bias-correcting modeled daily precipitation. Precipitation data are provided by two EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (KNMI-RACMO22E and CLMcom-CCLM4) and for two time periods (1981-2010 and 2031-2060). The demonstration area is the island of Cyprus, located in the eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. Cyprus is characterized by a complex coastline and steep orography that drive the precipitation distribution. As a reference dataset, we used a high resolution (1x1km) gridded observational dataset, derived from a dense network of stations. For this application, we developed a copula-based structure scheme between the reference and the simulated data sets. This was for the historical period and each model grid cell. Then, assuming this relation remains unchanged, we corrected the biases for both study periods (historical and near future). Due to the stochastic nature of precipitation, the copula schemes were developed separately for each hydrological season (i.e., wet: November to March and dry: April to October). In addition, different copula schemes were developed for non-extreme and extreme events. The results showed that the proposed method could significantly improve the modeled precipitation for both models in 85% and 92% of grid cells, respectively. These improvements are evident throughout the year and for both extreme and non-extreme values. The climate change signal (precipitation decline near 7%) remains unchanged after applying the bias correction.

How to cite: Lazoglou, G., Zittis, G., and Bruggeman, A.: A novel, Copula-based approach for the bias correction of daily precipitation: a case study in the eastern Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2518, 2022.

EGU22-3125 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

From science to action - climate risk analyses to support adaptation policies and planning at a local level in northern Ghana 

Paula Aschenbrenner, Abel Chemura, Lemlem Habtemariam, Francis Jarawura, and Christoph Gornott

Agricultural production is highly weather-dependent in sub-Saharan Africa. Under climate change the risk of yield losses increases even further, posing a threat to farmers’ income and livelihood. Despite the availability of a wide range of adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector, information on their suitability at the local scale is limited.

In this session, we would like to discuss an example of a climate risk analysis that supports decision makers on a local scale in northern Ghana in adaptation planning. Using latest past and projected climate data as well as biophysical crop models, the study at first quantified climate impacts on agriculture.  Secondly, the suitability of different adaptation strategies was assessed under socio-economic and biophysical aspects using mixed methods including interviews, literature, a cost-benefit analysis and agricultural modelling. Differential vulnerabilities of farmers based on their identities were taken into account. Relevant stakeholders from Ghanaian local and national governmental institutions, civil society, academia, the private sector, practitioners and development partners were engaged throughout the study process in three workshops, selected the adaptation strategies and were consulted in various interviews.

Results show the dominant negative impacts of climate change on main staple crop yields in northern Ghana with differences according to region, crop and management possibilities of the farmer. The four analysed adaptation strategies (using improved seeds, cashew plantations alley cropped with legumes, Famer Managed Natural Regeneration and Irrigation) can all increase agricultural production and income while having differential positive co-benefits and negative side-effects. Unequal access to power, assets and land leads to differing opportunities in the uptake of suitable measures. Detailed recommendations for an implementation of the adaptation strategies ensuring an increased adaptive capacity of whole communities were developed and discussed with stakeholders. The information was prepared in policy briefs and short films.

How to cite: Aschenbrenner, P., Chemura, A., Habtemariam, L., Jarawura, F., and Gornott, C.: From science to action - climate risk analyses to support adaptation policies and planning at a local level in northern Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3125, 2022.

EGU22-3568 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

2020 Vision: Using transdisciplinary approaches in understanding climate (in)action through youth led participation in mitigating hydrological extremes. 

Katie J. Parsons, Lisa Jones, Florence Halstead, Hue Le, Thu Thi Vo, Christopher R. Hackney, and Daniel R. Parsons

We are the midst of a climate emergency requiring urgent climate action that is, as yet, unforthcoming both on the scale, and at the speed, commensurate with the associated hazard and risk. This paper presents work that considers this current state of inaction and explores how we might understand the underpinning processes of attitudinal and behavioural change needed through the emotional framework of loss.

This inaction is also explored through the additional lens of the year 2020, a year of tumultuous social change created by the COVID–19 pandemic. The article draws parallels with and looks to learn from the ways in which the collective loss experienced as a result of COVID–19 may offer a sense of hope in the fight to adequately address climate change but how meeting the Sustainable Development Goals will require climate injustices to also be addressed. We argue that appropriate leadership that guides widespread climate action from all is best sought from those groups already facing the loss of climate change and therefore already engaged in climate-related social action and activism, including youth and Indigenous peoples.

In this regard we present work from an ongoing project based within the Red River catchment (Vietnam), which is already experiencing enhanced hydrological extremes. Resultant floods, landslides and soil erosion in the upper region is having impacts in communities, whilst relative sea-level rises in the region are affecting the frequency and magnitude of flooding. Our research is working with young people and their communities, alongside social and environmental scientists in partnership, to identify imaginative ways to mitigate these climate change challenges and foster action. The paper will outline how this youth-led approach explores how local, traditional, and indigenous knowledges can develop understandings and strengthen local and societal resilience, incorporating peer-to-peer, intergenerational and cross-/inter-cultural forms of collaborative, and socially just, learning.

How to cite: Parsons, K. J., Jones, L., Halstead, F., Le, H., Thi Vo, T., Hackney, C. R., and Parsons, D. R.: 2020 Vision: Using transdisciplinary approaches in understanding climate (in)action through youth led participation in mitigating hydrological extremes., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3568, 2022.

EGU22-4090 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Evaluation of co-creation processes in climate services  -  Development of a formative evaluation scheme 

Elke Keup-Thiel, Sebastian Bathiany, Markus Dressel, Juliane El Zohbi, Diana Rechid, Susanne Schuck-Zöller, Mirko Suhari, and Esther Timm

 

Climate change increasingly affects all parts of society. Different economic sectors such as the agricultural sector have to adapt to climate change. More and more climate services are being developed in order to support this adaptation to climate change with accurate and suitable products. Good practises for the design of climate services include transdisciplinary approaches and co-creation of climate service products. The development of usable and useful climate service products and effective adaptation measures requires constant interactions between climate service providers and users of the products. To assess the effectiveness of these co-creation endeavours, continuous evaluation is crucial. At present, output and outcome assessments are conducted occasionally in this research field. However, these summative evaluations that are preformed ex-post do not help to adjust the ongoing process of co-creation. Therefore, the focus of the presented work is on formative evaluation of the co-creative development of science-based climate service products. A formative evaluation is done during the run-time of a project with the intention to reflect and readjust it. For this purpose, we analysed in detail the process of co-creation of climate service products in the knowledge transfer project ADAPTER (ADAPT tERrestrial systems, https://adapter-projekt.org/) and combine this analysis with a systematic literature review. In ADAPTER, simulation-based climate service products are developed together with key partners and practitioners from the agricultural sector, with the aim of supporting decision making in the context of climate change adaptation.

As a first step, main characteristics of the product development process were identified empirically and six sub-processes of product development were determined. Secondly , questions for a formative evaluation were assigned to the different steps and sub-processes. Thirdly, a literature review including fields other than climate services delivered additional qualitative aspects. As a result, a scheme of quality criteria and related assessment questions for the different sub-processes in climate service development was created, based on both empirical and theoretical work. Subsequently, this scheme needs validation and testing. The resulting formative evaluation scheme will be particularly helpful to reflect on and to improve the co-creation processes in climate services and beyond.

 

How to cite: Keup-Thiel, E., Bathiany, S., Dressel, M., El Zohbi, J., Rechid, D., Schuck-Zöller, S., Suhari, M., and Timm, E.: Evaluation of co-creation processes in climate services  -  Development of a formative evaluation scheme, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4090, 2022.

EGU22-4596 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Cost-effective measures for climate change adaptation in a drought-prone area in eastern Germany 

Beate Zimmermann, Christian Hildmann, Sarah Kruber, Johanna Charlotte Witt, Astrid Sturm, Lutz Philip Hecker, and Frank Wätzold

Adaptation to climate change is an inevitable challenge in many regions. In our study area, which is located in the state of Brandenburg in eastern Germany, land use is increasingly affected by long-lasting soil moisture deficits in the vegetation period. It is therefore important to implement measures for water retention at the landscape scale that postpone and mitigate the severity of these drought periods. Our objective is to identify cost-effective measures in a manner that maximizes expected ecological benefits for available budgets. For this purpose, we combine a scientific analysis of the determinants of land surface temperature with site-specific cost calculations.

The distribution of land surface temperature serves as a proxy for environmental conditions that favor water retention and, as a consequence, provide a certain cooling effect during hot and dry periods. Landsat thermal images from the vegetation seasons of 2013 to 2020 were rescaled (min-max normalization) and used as the response variable for a Bayesian multilevel model. Several parameters of the physical environment such as land cover, forest and crop type, soil water holding capacity, canopy cover and degree of soil sealing were used as explanatory variables. In addition, an antecedent moisture index and potential evapotranspiration at time of satellite overpass were incorporated into the model. First results highlight the importance of land use and canopy cover for land surface temperature distribution. In general, the analysis enables the identification of overheated landscapes. Moreover, model predictions after hypothetical implementation of adaptation measures provide an ecological benefit assessment based on the cooling capacities. We also determine the costs of the different measures in a spatially differentiated manner. An integrated modeling procedure combines the results from the ecological and economic assessments.

In this contribution, we will present the results of the Bayesian modeling and discuss a first example of the cost-effectiveness analysis in an agricultural landscape.

How to cite: Zimmermann, B., Hildmann, C., Kruber, S., Witt, J. C., Sturm, A., Hecker, L. P., and Wätzold, F.: Cost-effective measures for climate change adaptation in a drought-prone area in eastern Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4596, 2022.

EGU22-7773 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Challenges and approaches in transdisciplinary climate change adaptation projects 

Jan-Albrecht Harrs and Kevin Laranjeira

Climate risks and the appropriate climate change adaptation (CCA) strategies and solutions are highly localized, as they are dependent on the local climate signal, normative assessments on associated risks and the capacities and motivation of municipalities to plan and implement adaptive measures. Research projects trying to explore and pilot applied local solutions therefore need to co-develop recommendations with local practitioners and stakeholders.

Even though a diverse landscape of climate information (CI) is already available and many municipalities know which risk they may face, knowledge and skills on how to interpret, apply and integrate this information in adaptation action is regarded as necessary. Different, albeit non-representative surveys among municipalities in Germany show that more cities are engaging in developing concepts and strategies (Hasse & Willen, 2018; Hagelstange et al., 2021; Handschuh et al., 2020), but that more practice-oriented information on how to identify regional and local vulnerabilities, evaluate efficient adaptive measures, and identify and build up adaptive capacities is needed (Handschuh et al., 2020; Kahlenborn et al., 2021; BBSR, 2016).

Based on an extensive literature analysis of journal articles, research project reports and strategic policy document as well as the experience of accompanying six transdisciplinary research projects, the following categorization of challenges will be presented:

  • Governance
  • Adaptive capacities
  • Integrative assessment of adaptive measures
  • Climate model data and information
  • Transdisciplinary work in applied research projects

Drawing on insights on the challenges, a list of recommendations for increasing the use-value of climate information and knowledge for CCA in municipalities is outlined. Tackling these five challenges through co-creating and inserting CI and services into municipal procedures and systems can then address the “last mile problem” (Celliers et al., 2021) of CI and support the lagging implementation of CCA.

In order to conduct impactful transdisciplinary research projects, the specific governance context of municipalities needs to be explored. A survey shows that spatial planning not environmental departments implement most CCA measures (EEA, 2020), whereas planning often lacks climate awareness (Skelton, 2020), signifying the need for cross-departmental approaches. Likewise, the understanding and possible usages of CI needs to be conveyed through appropriate transdisciplinary methods.    

How to cite: Harrs, J.-A. and Laranjeira, K.: Challenges and approaches in transdisciplinary climate change adaptation projects, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7773, 2022.

EGU22-7810 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Climate X: Meeting the demand for multi-hazard climate risk information tailored to financial services 

Markela Zeneli, Claire Burke, Laura Ramsamy, Hamish Mitchell, James Brennan, and Kamil Kluza

As uncertainty around the impacts of climate change become more apparent, businesses and communities are relying on cutting-edge information to help them navigate their next steps. Climate X are a climate risk information provider that aims to help businesses and communities prepare for a rapidly changing environment, with an explainable and transparent method.

Our flagship product, Spectra, presents users with a multitude of potential hazards including flooding (fluvial, pluvial, and coastal), subsidence, landslides, and extreme heat. Each hazard risk is quantified at street level, and we project risks and impacts for low emissions (RCP2.6) and high emissions (RCP8.5) scenarios. This allows users to see the difference between the best-case and worst-case scenarios for assets across the UK.

This poster will cover our methods of finding data, interpolating, modelling, and predicting, as well as a tour of our easy-to-use UI.

How to cite: Zeneli, M., Burke, C., Ramsamy, L., Mitchell, H., Brennan, J., and Kluza, K.: Climate X: Meeting the demand for multi-hazard climate risk information tailored to financial services, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7810, 2022.

EGU22-8085 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

KlimaKonform – An interdisciplinary project to support smaller communities in climate change adaptation 

Christian Bernhofer, Majana Heidenreich, Verena Maleska, Reinhard Schinke, and Niels Wollschläger

How do we succeed in supporting climate adaptation also outside of the large urban areas? Which measures for mitigating do we need to deal with the consequences of climate change? What support and which tools do smaller communities need in planning and implementing necessary measures? What is specific for low mountain ranges? To answer these questions a targeted process was initiated by researchers and practitioners from three German federal states (Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia), working together in the interdisciplinary project KlimaKonform within BMBF RegIKlim.

The model region covers three counties in the catchment area of the Weiße Elster. The low mountain region is typical for large parts of Germany and other Central European countries. Thus, the approach, experiences, methods and products are easily transferable to other low mountain ranges. Small and medium-sized municipalities have to deal often with limited budgets, as well as limited technical and administrative capacities. Community income is mainly generated by agriculture and forestry, small businesses and partly tourism. At the same time, the challenges posed by the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme events such as flash floods, water shortage, heat waves and storms are similar to large cities with much higher capacities in personnel and finances.

Unfortunately, adaptation to extreme weather and climate change often comes only after a damaging event, for example after extreme precipitation destroyed the municipal water infrastructure (paths, sewer network, and waste water treatment plants). KlimaKonform supports communities to become active before damage occurs and thus foster the move from event-related to preventive and strategic action. Therefore, KlimaKonform offers new concepts and customised tools to assess the impacts of climate change, determine their capacities for adaptation and derive appropriate measures. The tools will consider the needs in the model region and address the uncertainties related to future climate change and climate model output.

Examples are given for various foci of the project. One focus of KlimaKonform involves the interdisciplinary assessment of extreme events by coupled model chains ranging from climate change ensembles to third order impact models. Hazards as heavy rainfall and floods with their impacts are incorporated. The location in the low mountain range requires high-resolution climate input data for modelling due to corresponding high flow velocities. These data are not sufficiently available for regional climate impact modelling. In cooperation with the project NUKLEUS and hydro-impact modellers in RegIKlim, approaches like bias adjustment of climate model outputs are tested for applicability. The aim is to reduce uncertainties in model application while increasing the effectiveness of precautionary and adaptation measures. Another focus of KlimaKonform is the systematic identification of vulnerable infrastructure during heat waves. In this context, urban climate simulations are used to assess the potential of green infrastructure to reduce outdoor and indoor heat stress conditions. All results of KlimaKonform will be available free of charge and in a comprehensible form via a freely accessible internet platform. Here, the already existing and well-received Regional Climate Information System ReKIS will be expanded to provide guidance for smaller communities.

How to cite: Bernhofer, C., Heidenreich, M., Maleska, V., Schinke, R., and Wollschläger, N.: KlimaKonform – An interdisciplinary project to support smaller communities in climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8085, 2022.

EGU22-9299 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Dealing with climate data uncertainty for agricultural impact assessments in West Africa 

Paula Aschenbrenner, Stephanie Gleixner, and Christoph Gornott

West Africa is characterized by high variability in climate, has a fast growing population, and is home to a population strongly reliant on rainfed agriculture. The largely weather-dependent agricultural production is now further at risk under increasing climate change. To adequately address climate risks and avoid further pressure on food security, evidence-based information on climate impacts and guidance on the suitability of adaptation measures is required. Simulations of regional impacts of climate change on crop production are strongly influenced by the climate data used as input. The selection of climate forcing data is most influential in regions with high uncertainties in past climate data and where the agricultural production varies greatly under climate variability (Ruane et al., 2021). Both is the case in West Africa, calling for an improved understanding of past and future climate data for its use in agricultural modelling over the region. 

In this session we want to contribute to an increased understanding on the usability of different past and future climate data sets for agricultural impact models over West Africa. In a recent study, we compared ten CMIP6 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6) models and their respective bias-adjusted ISIMIP3b (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3b) versions against different observational and reanalysis data sets. Focusing on their use for agricultural impact assessments we centred the analysis on climate indicators highly influencing agricultural production and their representation in the different climate data sets.

Results show that the ten CMIP6 models contain regional and model dependent biases with similar systematic biases as have been observed in earlier CMIP versions. Although the bias-adjusted version of this data aligns overall well with observations, we could detect some regional strong deviations from observations in agroclimatic variables like length of dry spells and rainy season onset. The use of the multi-model ensemble mean has resulted in an improved agreement of CMIP6 and the bias-adjusted ISIMIP3b data with observations. Choosing a subensemble of bias-adjusted models could only improve the performance of the ensemble mean locally but not over the whole region. The results of this study can support agricultural impact modelling in quantifying climate risk hotspots as well as suggesting suitable adaptation measures to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector in West Africa.

How to cite: Aschenbrenner, P., Gleixner, S., and Gornott, C.: Dealing with climate data uncertainty for agricultural impact assessments in West Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9299, 2022.

EGU22-10358 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20 | Highlight

Distance to cool spots, a practical design guideline for heat resilient urban areas 

Jeroen Kluck, Laura Kleerekoper, Anna Solcerova, Stephanie Erwin, Lisette Klok, Monique de Groot, and Arjen Koekoek

In the Netherlands municipalities are searching for guidelines for a heat resilient design of the urban space. One of the guidelines which has recently been picked up is that each house should be within a 300 meter of an attractive cool spot outside. The reason is that houses might get too hot during a heat wave and therefor it is important that inhabitants have an alternative place to go. The distance of 300 m has been adopted because of practical reasons. This guideline has been proposed after a research of the University of Amsterdam of applied sciences and TAUW together with 15 municipalities.

To help municipalities to take cool spots into account in their urban design the national organization for disseminating climate data has developed a distance to coolness map for all Dutch built up areas. This map shows the cool spots with a minimum of 200 m2 based on a map of the PET for a hot summer day (2*2 m2 spatial resolution). Furthermore the map shows the walking distance for each house (via streets and foot paths) to the nearest cool spot.

This map helps as a starting point. Because not all cool spots are attractive cool spots. A research in 2021 showed what further basis and optional characteristics those cool spots should have: e.g. sufficiently large, combination of sun and shadow, benches, quiet, safe and clean. In fact those places should be attractive places to stay for most days of the year.

With the distance to attractive cool spots municipalities can easily see which areas lack attractive cool spots. The distance to cool spot maps is therefore a way to simplify complex climate data into an understandable and practical guideline. This is an improvement as compared to using thresholds for temperatures and thresholds for duration of exceedance of those temperatures in a guideline.: Municipalities like this practical approach that combines climate adaptation with improving the livability of a city throughout the year.

How to cite: Kluck, J., Kleerekoper, L., Solcerova, A., Erwin, S., Klok, L., de Groot, M., and Koekoek, A.: Distance to cool spots, a practical design guideline for heat resilient urban areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10358, 2022.

EGU22-10396 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Bias adjustment of RCM simulations in high-latitude catchments: complexity versus skill in a changing climate 

Claudia Teutschbein, Faranak Tootoonchi, Andrijana Todorovic, Olle Räty, Jan Haerter, and Thomas Grabs

For climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale, meteorological variables are typically extracted from ensemble simulations provided by global (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which are then downscaled and bias-adjusted for each study site. For bias adjustment, different statistical methods that re-scale climate model outputs have been suggested in the scientific literature. They range from simple univariate methods that adjust each meteorological variable individually to more complex and statistically as well as computationally more demanding multivariate methods that take existing relationships between meteorological variables into consideration. While several attempts have been made over the past decade to evaluate such methods in various regions, there is no guidance for choosing an appropriate bias adjustment method in relation to the study question at hand. In particular, the question whether more complex multivariate methods are worth the effort by resulting in better adjustments of a wide range of univariate, multivariate and temporal features, remains unanswered. 
We here present an approach to systematically assess the performance of the most commonly used univariate and multivariate bias adjustment methods at different catchment scales in Sweden. Based on a multi-catchment and multi-model approach, we evaluated numerous univariate, multivariate and temporal features of precipitation, temperature and streamflow. Finally, we discuss potential benefits (skills and added value) and trade-offs (complexity and computational demand) of each method, in particular for hydrological climate-change impact studies in high latitudes.

How to cite: Teutschbein, C., Tootoonchi, F., Todorovic, A., Räty, O., Haerter, J., and Grabs, T.: Bias adjustment of RCM simulations in high-latitude catchments: complexity versus skill in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10396, 2022.

EGU22-11337 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

AGRICA - Climate Risk Profiles for Sub-Saharan Africa 

Stephanie Gleixner, Julia Tomalka, Stefan Lange, and Christoph Gornott

Many countries recognise the importance of adaptation to climate change, but have limited access to reliable information on climate impacts and risks which should inform the selection of adaptation strategies. The AGRICA Climate Risk Profiles (CRPs) provide a condensed overview of present and future climate impacts and climate risks for different sectors. Based on projections from four climate models under two Greenhouse Gas emission scenarios, climate and climate impact data from the ISIMIP project is used to assess changes in climate, water resources, agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems and human health. To date, CRPs have been published for 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and further CRPs are currently being developed both under the AGRICA project as well as in collaboration with external organisations. The CRPs are intended to inform decision makers from governments, international institutions, civil society, academia and the private sector regarding the risks of climate impacts in key sectors. The findings can feed into national and sub-national climate adaptation planning including NDC and NAP development, implementation and review, but also provide useful information and evidence at other strategic planning and implementation levels.

How to cite: Gleixner, S., Tomalka, J., Lange, S., and Gornott, C.: AGRICA - Climate Risk Profiles for Sub-Saharan Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11337, 2022.

EGU22-11372 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Local downscaling of temperature projections for energy planning purposes in an Alpine area 

Dino Zardi, Lavinia Laiti, and Lorenzo Giovannini

Medium- and long-term energy planning at regional scale requires, among others, the estimate of the future energy demand driven by expected  heating and cooling needs of buildings, according to the local impact of changing climate. To support the development of the 2021-2030 Energy Plan of the Province of Trento in the Alps, temperature projections provided by EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were downscaled at 11 weather stations, representative of altitudes between 0 and 700 m a.m.s.l., to estimate the future values of a set of parameters that are commonly used to model the energy demand of buildings, such as: Heating and Cooling Degree Days (HDDs and CDDs), Test Reference Years (TRYs) and Extreme Reference Years (ERYs). A dataset of temperature and solar radiation hourly measurements, taken at the stations starting from 1983, was quality-controlled and analyzed to estimate statistics and observed trends for both variables, as well as degree days, reference years and climate change indices from the ETCCDI set. A hybrid downscaling approach (combining statistical and dynamical techniques) is then applied to temperature projections, based on the application of the morphing method to the results of an ensemble of 16 RCMs, allowing the estimate of future TRYs, ERYs and degree days in 2030 and 2050 at the selected sites (notice that no significant variation associated with climate change was assumed for solar radiation). According to historical observations (1983-2019), the warming tendency for monthly mean temperatures is clear and falls around 0.06 °C year-1, slightly higher than reported at national level. The increase is more pronounced in spring and summer than in autumn and winter, with minima in December and especially May. No significant trend is observed for solar radiation trends. As for HDDs, stations at different altitudes show comparable reductions, of around -10 HDDs year-1, with an apparent tendency to accelerate in the most recent years. The increase of CDDs can be quantified in less than 5 CDDs year-1. The ensemble of temperature projections estimate temperature increases of 0.5 °C between 2016 and 2030 and 1.3 °C between 2016 and 2050 on average (0.03-0.04 °C year-1), implying further future reductions of HDDs (between -4 and -11% at 2030, between -10 and -21% at 2050) and increases of CDDs (between 12 and 36% at 2030, between 36 and 87% at 2050). Such changes will correspond to major modifications in the seasonal profile of the energy demand associated with the winter heating and summer cooling of buildings in the Alpine area.

How to cite: Zardi, D., Laiti, L., and Giovannini, L.: Local downscaling of temperature projections for energy planning purposes in an Alpine area, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11372, 2022.

EGU22-11838 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

ClimateLynx. Generating global climatic linkages 

Clemens Rendl, Ramiro Marco Figuera, and Stefano Natali

Negative effects of climate change lead to diverse and extensive impacts. While some regions are more vulnerable than others to uncertain outlooks, reliable tools to assess climate risks, drive decisions and turn threats into opportunities are increasingly needed. Geospatial environmental data are globally available, covering populated as well as remote areas. The pool of data reaches back decades in time and grows day by day. Satellite data play a crucial role in improving the multi-dimensional description of the Earth system. This invaluable resource, when merged with socio-economic information and other open and free datasets, enables us to better understand dynamics of a globally changing climate and thus rapid and sound decision making.

ClimateLynx is a knowledge management system for climate related data and information. A knowledge base, also called “second brain”, is a tool that supports creating relationships between data and information to help think better. In our proposed service, the knowledge we want to gather, explore and exploit is data relevant for climate change induced decision making. Our vision is to create a constantly growing and evolving climate change knowledge graph supporting decision and policy makers to contribute to the sustainable development and helping us to move closer to achieving current and future climate pledges, and eventually a more sustainable future for all. ClimateLynx includes climate data and data from interdisciplinary domains alike, such as socio-economy (WB[1], ADB[2]) or health (WHO[3]). The scope is to fuse these data and thus generate location and time relevant insight. This way, a holistic approach to strengthen resilience is fostered. When the data pools are fused and put into context, it is possible to generate connections and correlations between indicators of different domains. The combination and linkage of inter-domain specific indicators could help to better understand interdisciplinary climate change induced global dynamics and tail effects. Moreover, non-obvious linkages between indicators or domains could be highlighted or even uncovered. With the help of such a tool, it could be possible to detect negative emerging climate trends based on the time series analysis of indicators earlier and react adequately.

ClimateLynx focuses on urban regions and is devoted to decision makers, urban planners and data experts. Urban planners can take advantage of ClimateLynx through comparing initiatives and developments with other cities of e.g., similar size, climatic conditions, or GDP. This enables for efficient planning and can support ideas and initiatives to create more liveable and climate resilient cities. Likewise, data experts might be interested to explore the various data sets and create new connections through linking indicators from natural and social science disciplines and thus discovering location relevant specificities.

ClimateLynx is built on top of the data access and processing capabilities of the ADAM[4] platform, to quickly access and process large volumes of data. Through ADAM, ClimateLynx is fed with climate indicators calculated from data from historic, currently operating, and future satellite missions. Global climate indicators are computed periodically, city-aggregated information is extracted off-line to offer optimal user experience.


[1]https://data.worldbank.org/
[2]https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/data/main
[3]https://www.who.int/data/collections
[4]https://adamplatform.eu/

How to cite: Rendl, C., Figuera, R. M., and Natali, S.: ClimateLynx. Generating global climatic linkages, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11838, 2022.

EGU22-11883 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

Selection of CMIP6 Global Climate Models for long-term hydrological projections 

Huong Nguyen Thi, Ho-Jun Kim, Min-Kyu Jung, and Hyun-Han Kwon

Selection of a suitable Global Climate Model (GCM) in hydrological research for basin-scale of monsoon affected regions under future climate projection scenarios is a great necessity. This study comprehensively evaluated the suitability of 25 available GCMs issued of  Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to choose the best performing GCMs in precipitation simulating skill over the whole main River Basin System in South Korea for the historical period of 1973–2014. Bilinear interpolation method was used for mapping the grid resolution of the simulated GCMs precipitation and observed precipitation with a 0.1250 x 0.1250 resolution. Where, the observed monthly precipitation at 56 automated weather stations from 1973 to 2014 were derived from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach based on four spatial metrics, Cramer’s V, Goodman-Kruskal (GK) Lambda, Mapcurves and TheilU were proposed to compare the simulated GCMs precipitation with the observed precipitation. To calculate the overall ranking of the GCMs and identify the best performing GCMs, this study applied Jenks Natural Break classification based on the Compromise Programming index. The results indicated that: 1) The GCMs performance was different with different spatial indices with the most suitable of GCMs ranking for each watershed. 2) The best performing GCMs well simulated the annual mean precipitation with a bias of less than 15% for southwestern watersheds and higher biases (30-50%) for remaining watersheds. 3) Majority of CMIP6 GCMs could be capture trends and the spatial distribution of annual, seasonal precipitation over South Korea. However, the result was also found that most GCMs underestimated summer precipitation and overestimated spring precipitation. Therefore, the selected GCMs with corrected biases can be usefully employed for analyzing future changes of hydrological pattern associated with climate change projections.

Keywords: Global Climate Models (GCMs), CMIP6, Bilinear interpolation, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Jenks Natural Break classification.

How to cite: Nguyen Thi, H., Kim, H.-J., Jung, M.-K., and Kwon, H.-H.: Selection of CMIP6 Global Climate Models for long-term hydrological projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11883, 2022.

EGU22-12037 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

APENA3 – Methodology and steps for the preparation of three pilot climate adaptation strategies and implementation plans in Ukraine 

Christos Tsompanidis, Svitlana Krakovska, Theofanis Lolos, Antonios Sakalis, Eleni Ieremiadi, Alex Gittelson, Oksana Kysil, and Alla Krasnozhon

APENA 3 ”Strengthening the capacity of regional and local administrations for implementation and enforcement of EU environmental and climate change legislation and development of infrastructure projects” is an EU-funded project, targeting to effectively raise Ukrainian public authorities capacities at local and regional level in designing and implementing key reforms. The main feature of Component 3 is the development of climate adaptation strategies followed by implementation plans for three Ukrainian Oblasts. Following an evaluation process, the Oblasts of Ivano-Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka and Mykolaivs’ka were determined to be the most appropriate in which to undertake the above activities. The first important step, was to identify the sectors of interest in relation to climate change, in Oblast but also National level utilizing the experiences and know-how from Europe and internationally, since the pilot Strategies and Implementation Plans, will be used as a guidance for other Oblasts in the future to elaborate regional climate adaptation planning. The selected sectors include agriculture, forests, biodiversity and ecosystems, water management, fisheries, coastal areas, tourism, critical infrastructure, energy, health, built environment and cultural heritage. The next step in the methodology is the vulnerability and risk assessment. The project team will identify the appropriate climate indices to evaluate vulnerability and risk based on specific climatic impact drivers for the respective sectors. Sensitivity and exposure analysis will follow in order to identify the degree of vulnerability of each sector and geographic area in the three pilot Oblasts. Based on the previous assessment, impacts will be identified and examined in terms of likelihood and severity, guiding the team to determine the risk. The various challenges (stakeholder engagement, sectoral issues identification, collection of climate data etc.) in the use of climate data will be identified and tackled in this stage. Following the preparation of the project’s scientific basis, the Experts team will determine sectoral adaptation thematic pillars, that will include horizontal and location specific measures and actions for the evaluated sectors.

How to cite: Tsompanidis, C., Krakovska, S., Lolos, T., Sakalis, A., Ieremiadi, E., Gittelson, A., Kysil, O., and Krasnozhon, A.: APENA3 – Methodology and steps for the preparation of three pilot climate adaptation strategies and implementation plans in Ukraine, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12037, 2022.

EGU22-12415 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

RoCliB - Bias corrected CORDEX RCM dataset over Romania 

Alexandru Dumitrescu, Vlad Vlad Amihăesei, and Sorin Cheval

Four climate parameters (i.e., maximum, mean and minimum air temperature and precipitation amount) from 10 regional climate models, provided by the EURO-CORDEX initiative, are adjusted using as reference the ROCADA gridded dataset. The adjustment was performed on a daily temporal resolution for the historical period (1971-2005), as well as for climate change scenarios based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP45 and RCP85).

The best method for bias-correction was selected following a 2-fold cross-validation approach, which was performed on historical data using two methods: Quantile Mapping (QMAP) and Multivariate Bias Correction with N-dimensional probability (MBCn). The performances of the two methods are very similar when analysing the frequency distribution of each selected variable, whereas the comparison between the inter-variables correlation of the adjusted datasets and the reference dataset revealed much smaller differences for the dataset adjusted with the multivariate method, hence this was used for producing the BC climate scenario dataset.

Based on the MBCn adjusted dataset, a climate change analysis over Romania was performed at the seasonal and annual scales. Overall, for the multimodel ensemble mean, at the country level, a substantial temperature increase is reported for both scenarios and no significant trend is revealed for precipitation amount.

The adjusted RCMs are provided without any restrictions via an open-access repository in netCDF CF-1.4-compliant file format (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4642463). The BC climate models are archived at the 0.1° spatial resolution, in the WGS-84 coordinate system, at a daily temporal resolution. Based on bias-corrected dataset, relevant information about climate change over Romania’s territory is provided by using an interactive dashboard, implemented in an open-source web application (RoCliB data explorer - http://suscap.meteoromania.ro/roclib).

 

 

How to cite: Dumitrescu, A., Vlad Amihăesei, V., and Cheval, S.: RoCliB - Bias corrected CORDEX RCM dataset over Romania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12415, 2022.

EGU22-12534 | Presentations | ITS3.3/CL3.2.20

A Study on Heavy Rainfall and Flash Floods Using Different Climate Toolboxes 

Inna Khomenko and Roshanak Tootoonchi

Under the climate change, extreme precipitation responsible for flash floods, which can cause significant economic losses and human casualties, become more frequent and severe. These escalations are expected to become higher due to global warming which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere and thus, intensified precipitation events. Recent reports show that most flood events in Italy constitute flash floods, therefore it is projected for the region of Italy to be increasingly affected by flood events caused by heavy precipitation.

In this study, trends in extreme precipitation for present day and future projections up to 2100 under the worst-case scenario of warming, namely the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario are investigated using Copernicus and KNMI Climate Explorer databases.

On the basis of extremely easy-to-use KNMI Climate Explorer database anomalies of RX1day (1981-2010 reference period) for historical period and up to 2100 are retrieved for 7 Italian cities highly affected by flash floods (Venice, Rome, Naples, Genoa, Cagliari, Catanzaro, Palermo).For the mentioned regions the strong positive trends are calculated and the highest positive anomalies up to 50-80 mm/day are observed in the half of the XXI century.

The Copernicus toolbox editor was used to retrieve the RX1day index and 95th percentile from present day simulation (2011–2020) and future projection (2021–2100) of global precipitation from a total of 18 bias adjusted Global Climate Models from CMIP5 and precipitation time series for 7 Italian cities were extracted in order to obtain the trends. RX1day index doesn’t show significant increasing trend. Moreover, for the 95th percentile negative trends are obtained for most of the Italian cities in question.

Since heavy rainfalls are usually caused by convective precipitation, near surface convective precipitation trends for the period of 1991 to 2020 are derived from ERA5 monthly averaged reanalysis for the Mediterranean region and Italy, for the months in which the flash floods are often observed. The most significant increases in convective precipitation are obtained in July for Northern Italy, and in September for Southern Italy, and in November for the west coast zone.

It can therefore be said that for the historical data the positive trends in precipitation are dominated. However, for different projections and climate models from different database different results, sometimes even opposite results, are obtained.

How to cite: Khomenko, I. and Tootoonchi, R.: A Study on Heavy Rainfall and Flash Floods Using Different Climate Toolboxes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12534, 2022.

We share our experiences for impact and adaptation studies, by presenting results of a climate modelling study, which is based on ERA5 data at different horizontal resolutions, i.e., down from approximately 300 km to 25 km. The ERA5 data is used as a meteorological constraint (nudging) to perform a numerical model study on the influence of horizontal resolution on aerosol hygroscopic growth effects on meteorology in urban and remote atmospheric locations. For this sensitivity study we only switch on/off the associated aerosol water mass. Aerosol water is crucial form climate impact and adaptation studies as it links air pollution with weather and climate through direct and indirect radiative feedbacks. We try to separate urban from continental-scale effects using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry climate and Earth system model. EMAC is applied globally in various horizontal resolutions, in a set-up similar to our previous PMAp evaluation study (https://www.eumetsat.int/PMAp), i.e., resolving weather time-scales. We compare our EMAC results of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) against CAMS reference simulations (40 km), various satellite data (MODIS-Aqua/Terra, PMAp) and AERONET surface observations (~ 30km radius around the instrument). While CAMS REA includes AOD data assimilation (Modis/PMAp), EMAC calculates the AOD ab initio from size-resolved aerosol hygroscopic growth without any data assimilation, and with an option to include aerosol-cloud feedbacks. Our results show that the EMAC AOD results are within the range of CAMS and satellite AOD. Aerosol water effect on AOD is noticeable for nudged and free running EMAC versions at both, urban and remote locations. The aerosol water effect is larger for free running EMAC versions, and more pronounced for urban AERONET sites, e.g., Hamburg, Karlsruhe, Thessaloniki, Zaragoza. The moisture feedback with air pollution is resolution dependent (time and space). Generally, this becomes more relevant with increasing resolution due to finer moisture and air pollution gradients, which is an indication for the importance of horizontal resolution for impact and adaptation studies.

How to cite: Metzger, S., Feigel, G., Steil, B., Rémy, S., and Christen, A.: Influence of horizontal resolution on aerosol hygroscopic growth effects in urban andremote boundary layers in the context of climate impact and adaptation studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13495, 2022.

EGU22-729 | Presentations | NH3.4

Study on Establishing the System of Enterprises’ Participation in Flood Disaster Prevention 

Yi-Ting Li, Guei-Lin Fu, and Cheng Hsiu Tsai

Taiwan has unique geographical characteristics. Located in a subtropical monsoon region, it is plagued annually by exceptional meiyu (East Asian rainy season) in May and June, and numerous typhoons from July to October. This unique climate often brings torrential rains and combined with Taiwan’s steep topography and short rivers, frequently triggers severe floods. Moreover, Taiwan lies at the intersection between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate and is among the areas with the world’s most frequent felt earthquakes. Natural hazards here can roughly be categorized into four types: earthquake, typhoon, flood, and hillside disasters; manmade disasters include: industrial disasters, residential/commercial fire, road traffic accident, and shipwreck. When disasters strike, they often cause grave impacts and tolls in human lives and properties. In recent years, there has been a rising trend in both their frequency and scale due to rapid urbanization and growing environmental vulnerability.
According to World Bank’s 2005 publication, Natural Disaster Hotspots - A Global Risk Analysis, Taiwan tops the world in the land area simultaneously exposed to three or more natural hazards (73%) and in the population under disasters’ threat (73%). Additionally, there has been an increase in potential hazards such as disease outbreaks and severe public safety accidents. Therefore, when large-scale disasters strike and the impact is beyond what the affected municipalities can or have resources to handle, the key to minimizing death and injuries as well as financial losses becomes how nearby municipalities can offer support, participate rapidly in the emergency response, integrate resources effectively, enhance response effectiveness and prevent the disaster’s spread.
The “Operational Compact for Emergency Management Mutual Aid between Municipality and County Governments” passed in 2005 has now been in effect for four years. Yet, a comprehensive review of recent years’ severe disaster experiences indicates that the chief rescue and relief responsibilities still fall on the central government; the rare implementation of the above Compact by local authorities exposes the inadequacy of the actual system. Thus, this paper examines the literature on relevant ordinances, operating models, and case studies in the American and Japanese regional mutual aid systems to emergency management, in order to offer suggestions for improvement towards a more complete regional mutual aid system, a significant upgrade on municipalities’ disaster response capabilities and effective functional integration and collaboration.

How to cite: Li, Y.-T., Fu, G.-L., and Tsai, C. H.: Study on Establishing the System of Enterprises’ Participation in Flood Disaster Prevention, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-729, 2022.

In this study, zone of Gundogdu (Rize) located in the Eastern Black Sea Region were examined in terms of landslide susceptibility and its stability analyzes were conducted. The study area is the region with the highest rainfall in Turkey. Heavy rainfall plays a major role in triggering landslides in this region. In this study, the relationship between precipitation and landslide was investigated. In addition, the effect of precipitation on weathering also determined the geological characteristics of the area. First of all, 1/25.000 scale geological map of Gundogdu and its surrounding was provided, the units are listed as Melyat Formation (Middle Eocene) and alluvium (Quaternary) from older to younger. 1/500 scale cross sections were generated for nineteen different landslides happened at Gundogdu in 2010, 2015, 2018, and 2021 years. Then stability analyzes were done with these data. Angle of internal friction (φ), cohesion (c), saturated unit weight, natural unit weight, dry unit weight and submerged unit weight (ϒd, ϒn, ϒk, ϒ'), specific gravity (Gs), porosity (n), saturation degree (SR), void ratio (e) and grain size distribution were determined with laboratory tests of soil samples which were taken to determine the engineering properties of soils located in places which stability calculations would be held. Following the results of these experiments, stability analyzes were done with 4 different methods (The Zero angle of Shearing Resistance Method, Ordinary Method of Slice, Bishop Method of Slices, and Janbu Method) according to the possible sliding surfaces that were plotted from geological section of landslide. As a result of these data, this region poses a great danger specially after rainfall with the effect of weathering. For this purpose, needs to be done for the prevention of landslides have been introduced.

How to cite: Yalcin, A.: Gundogdu (Ri̇ze) landslides and its surrounding slope susceptibility, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-938, 2022.

EGU22-1241 | Presentations | NH3.4

Study on the Occurrence and Development of Gullies under extreme Rainstorm Conditions 

Lijuan Yang, Chunmei Wang, Chunmei Zhang, Guowei Pang, Yongqing Long, Lei Wang, Baoyuan Liu, and Qinke Yang

 Soil erosion seriously damages land resources, which is a global environmental problem. Gully erosion is an important manifestation of soil erosion, in recent years, frequent extreme rainstorms have aggravated the occurrence and development of gully erosion. In order to study the formation and development patterns of newly formed gullies under the condition of climate change, this paper takes the Wangwugou Small Watershed of the Chabagou Watershed on the Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi as the research area, and takes the “7·26” extreme rainstorm in Northern Shaanxi Province in 2017 as the main research object based on UAV images, to analyze the occurrence regularity of newly formed gullies, and discuss its development characteristics, its difference with the development of existing gullies before 2017, and its relationship with topographic parameters in the following three years. The results showed that: (1) during the “7·26” extreme rainstorm in Northern Shaanxi, there were 45 newly formed gullies in the Wangwugou Small Watershed, which are about 101 gully/km2, and they could be divided into four categories: slope surface gullies, terraced field gullies, unpaved roadway gullies and bottom gullies. The slope surface gullies were the largest, and the bottom gullies and terraced field gullies were wider and larger in area. Production roads, check dam farmland and sloping farmland are most prone to the occurring of gullies under rainstorm conditions. (2) In the three years after the formation of the new gullies, the development of the new gully heads was faster than that of the original existing gullies, and 34.48% of the heads of newly formed gully was further advanced, which was 1.32 times of the original existing gullies. The average gully head retreat distance of newly formed gullies is 3 times that of the original existing gullies, which is up to 0.58 m/a, and the maximum speed could reach 2.12 m/a. (3) The increase of the drainage area could significantly promote the development of gully heads, which is an important topographic index to simulate the retreat rate of gully heads. Under extreme rainfall conditions, the soil erosion situation is highly serious in the study area, and the source of newly formed gullies could be traced more rapidly within three years after their occurrence. Therefore, special attention and enhanced management should be attached to the prevention and control of such gullies.

How to cite: Yang, L., Wang, C., Zhang, C., Pang, G., Long, Y., Wang, L., Liu, B., and Yang, Q.: Study on the Occurrence and Development of Gullies under extreme Rainstorm Conditions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1241, 2022.

Multivariate logistic regression models are the most popular in estimating landslide susceptibility by assessing various landslide causes—covariates—in mapped landslides or hindcasting landslides by including landslide triggering information such as rainfall. Although the sensitivity of these models to the variety of input data is frequently tested, the influence of data quality on the model accuracy is rarely discussed. For example, accurately representing spatial rainfall variability that triggered landslides may be essential in hindcasting models. Additionally, the properties of the mapped landslides, such as sample size, location, or time, are crucial to set a robust susceptibility model. Using an inventory that predominantly covers larger landslides would hinder a model by broadly covering the diversity of the factors leading to slope instability. Whereas smaller landslides could fail to capture sufficiently the range of values in the covariate space, likely decreasing the model performance. Another aspect is whether the number of mapped landslides is enough to estimate the susceptibility accurately or does more data means a better model. We developed several simple logistic regression models to answer all the above-listed questions relevant to assessing the model sensitivity. The model first demonstrated that global grid rainfall products could not accurately represent spatial rainfall distribution, which has a major influence on a landslide hindcast model. We have further found out that using only part of the individual landslides surprisingly may suffice to make accurate susceptibility estimates. Using smaller landslides in a susceptibility model outperforms a model that relies on larger landslides. Lastly, the model performance marginally varied after progressively adding more landslide data in a pilot study.

How to cite: Ozturk, U.: Role of baseline landslide inventory and grid rainfall precision on the sensitivity of susceptibility or hindcast models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1284, 2022.

Due to the impact of climate change, the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, with concentrated rainfalls, commonly cause landslide hazard in the mountain areas of Taiwan. Although the extraordinary rainfall behavior is critical for the geohazard, it is significantly affected by the factors such as topography, the route of typhoon, etc. Therefore, there are uncertainties for the predicted rainfall as well as the landslide susceptibilities.

This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the adopted study area in Central Taiwan. The uncertainties within the rainfall prediction was investigated before applied to the landslide susceptibility analysis. The catchments in Taiwan, including Tachia River, Wu River, and Chuoshui River, were adopted as the study area. To assess the hazard of the landslides, logistic regression methods and supporting vector machines method were applied, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. The results of predictive analysis with the consideration of uncertainties can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.

How to cite: Shou, K.-J.: Impact of Climate Change on Landslide Susceptibility – for the Case in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2299, 2022.

EGU22-2507 | Presentations | NH3.4

Impact of multi-temporal landslide inventories on landslide hazard assessment: a case study in the province of Belluno (Veneto Region, NE Italy) 

Silvia Puliero, Sansar Raj Meena, Filippo Catani, and Mario Floris

Frequent and extreme meteorological events can lead to an increase in landslide hazard. A multi-temporal inventory plays an essential role in monitoring slope processes over time and forecasting future evolution. In recent years, the province of Belluno (Veneto Region, NE Italy) was affected by two relevant and intense meteorological phenomena that occurred on October 27-30, 2018 (i.e. windstorm Vaia) and on December 4-6, 2020. Both events were characterized by heavy rainfall of up to 600 mm in 72 hours, triggering widespread landslides throughout the area. The analyses conducted on some local rain gauges in the sectors most affected by each storm show very high return periods (over 100 years) for both events, even though they occurred in a two-year time frame. This study aims to evaluate whether these strong meteorological phenomena are characterized by an increase in their frequency in the province of Belluno and to see what influence they have on slope instabilities, which are important for assessing landslide risk. The rainfall data available since 1950 have been investigated through statistical analysis to achieve these goals. The spatial and temporal evolution of slope instabilities has been examined through remote sensing techniques to compare landslides triggered in 2018 and 2020 with past instability phenomena in the same area. The results show the importance of multi-temporal databases for landslide hazard assessment after extreme meteorological events at the regional scale.

How to cite: Puliero, S., Meena, S. R., Catani, F., and Floris, M.: Impact of multi-temporal landslide inventories on landslide hazard assessment: a case study in the province of Belluno (Veneto Region, NE Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2507, 2022.

EGU22-2681 | Presentations | NH3.4

A decrease in rockfall probability associated with changing meteorological conditions in Germany 

Katrin M. Nissen, Uwe Ulbrich, and Bodo Damm

In this study we assess the influence of changes in the relevant meteorological conditions on the probability for rockfall in German low mountain regions. The study is based on data from a rockfall data base for Germany (Rupp and Damm, 2020) and a data set supplied by the Deutsche Bahn (German railway company) covering the periods 1838-2018 and 2015-2020, respectively. 

In a first approach, a logistic regression model for the probability of rockfall at a given location developed by Nissen et al. 2021 was applied to gridded meteorological station observations (RADOLAN and EOBS) ranging from the year 1950 to 2019. The logistic regression model quantifies the influence of daily precipitation, a proxy for pore water and freeze-thaw cycles on rockfall probability. A probability forecast was made for each day and location. The day-to-day variability in rockfall probability at the individual sites is high. Thus, the sign of the trends is site specific, but the majority of sites is showing a negative trend over the 70-year period investigated. The significance of the trends at most sites is below the 95% level. Sites at which the trend is statistically significant almost all show a negative trend, down to -4% per decade in terms of the annual number of days with a higher than climatological hazard. The mean probability decreased by as much as -2.3% per decade. 

The second approach is based on large-scale weather patterns. An analysis identified 3 weather pattern that occur on average at 9% of all days but include  19% of the days on which a rockfall event occurred. The trend in the number of these patterns was determined for the last 40 years. It suggests a decrease by -2.2% per decade and is not statistically significant. 

How to cite: Nissen, K. M., Ulbrich, U., and Damm, B.: A decrease in rockfall probability associated with changing meteorological conditions in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2681, 2022.

EGU22-4314 | Presentations | NH3.4

Landslide events in Portugal under future climate change scenarios 

Joana Araújo, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M.M. Soares, Raquel Melo, Sérgio C. Oliveira, and Ricardo M. Trigo

It is expected that landslide events will occur more frequently, throughout the century, as a direct consequence of climate change. The main triggering factor, over Portugal mainland, is extreme precipitation. Thus, the aim of this study relied on the assessment of the projected future changes in the extreme precipitation over Portugal mainland and quantifying the correlation between extreme rainfall events and landslide events through Rainfall Triggering Thresholds (RTT). This methodology was applied for two specific locations within two Portuguese areas of great geomorphological interest.

To evaluate the possible projected changes in the extreme precipitation, we used the Iberia02 dataset and the EURO-CORDEX models’ runs at a 0.11º spatial resolution. First, it was analyzed the models’ performance to simulate extreme values in the precipitation series. The simulated precipitation relied on RCM-GCM models’ runs, from EURO-CORDEX, and a Multimodel ensemble mean. The extreme precipitation assessment relied on the values associated to the highest percentiles, and to the values associated to the RTTs’ percentiles. To evaluate the possible future changes of the precipitation series, both at the most representative percentiles and RTTs’ percentiles, a comparison was made between the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX historical runs (1971-2000) and the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX future runs (2071-2100), considering two emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the models’ performance, the Multimodel ensemble mean appeared to be within the best representing models. As for the projected changes in the extreme precipitation for the end of the century, when following the RCP 4.5 scenario, most models projected an increase in the extreme values, whereas, when following the RCP 8.5 scenario, most models projected a decrease in the extreme values.  

 

Acknowledgements

This work was financed by national funds through FCT–Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., under the framework of the project BeSafeSlide (PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017)

How to cite: Araújo, J., Ramos, A. M., Soares, P. M. M., Melo, R., Oliveira, S. C., and Trigo, R. M.: Landslide events in Portugal under future climate change scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4314, 2022.

EGU22-5098 | Presentations | NH3.4

Forecasting and mitigating natural hazards with remote and in-situ monitoring 

Rachael Lau, Carolina Segui, Al Handwerger, Nate Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis

Fast disasters happen slowly. Two of the most notorious “rapid-onset” disasters – earthquakes and landslides – have a common dependency on a single determining parameter known as the Gruntfest number. Deep-seated landslides, seemingly rapid-onset to the naked eye, have historically been monitored with in-situ monitors and borehole sampling to understand conditions within the shear band. These in-situ monitoring techniques, however, are high-cost and labor-intensive. As satellite data and resources expand, remote sensing has become a more cost-effective and realistic option for monitoring gradual ground deformation caused by the creep of a deep-seated landslide. Differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), specifically, can be used to measure displacements on the Earth’s surface with precision to a few centimeters or less. Here we use InSAR and pre-existing borehole data for the Canillo landslide in Andorra to characterize the evolution of temperature and thereby the Gruntfest number from August 2018-December 2021. Our results reinforce the characteristic models for deep-seated landslides in Segui et. al (2020), suggesting that there exists a critical Gruntfest value where the landslide is catastrophically unstable. Given the anticipated increase in extreme climate with climate change, we expect it to become more frequent for landslides to reach this critical Gruntfest value, therefore necessitating a more robust analysis of the evolution of the Gruntfest number and the overall destabilization process for future work.

How to cite: Lau, R., Segui, C., Handwerger, A., Chaney, N., and Veveakis, M.: Forecasting and mitigating natural hazards with remote and in-situ monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5098, 2022.

EGU22-7282 | Presentations | NH3.4

Thermo-rock: influence of temperature on rock slope properties 

Ondřej Racek and Jan Blahůt

Thermo-rock: influence of temperature on rock slope properties

Rock slope stability is closely linked with the mechanical properties of the rock slope mass. These properties are influenced by numerous factors including meteorological, thermal and hydrogeological. Even short-term temperature cycles caused by direct sunlight, together with water saturation cycles can change mechanical properties of rock slope surficial zone. To partially quantify these influences, we have carried out short-term experiments at a former quarry test site. Geotechnical instrumentation of partial blocks with crack meters, surface and microcracks deformation monitoring using strain gauges, geophysical ERT monitoring, subsurface temperature and humidity monitoring, and  IR camera surface temperature sensing were used during 24-hour monitoring campaigns. Additionally, surface hardness was repeatedly measured using Schmidthammer. Before and after monitoring campaigns, rock mass samples from different depths were collected, to perform basic geomechanical tests. Using these complex data, the influence of short-term temperature changes on the rock slope surficial layer properties were estimated.

How to cite: Racek, O. and Blahůt, J.: Thermo-rock: influence of temperature on rock slope properties, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7282, 2022.

EGU22-7465 | Presentations | NH3.4

A severe landslide event in the Alpine foreland under possible future climate and land-use changes 

Douglas Maraun, Raphael Knevels, Aditya N. Mishra, Heimo Truhetz, Emanuele Bevacqua, Herwig Proske, Giuseppe Zappa, Alexander Brenning, Helene Petschko, Armin Schaffer, Philip Leopold, and Bryony L. Puxley

Landslides are a major natural hazard, but uncertainties about their occurrence in a warmer climate are substantial. The relative role of rainfall, soil moisture, and land-use changes and the importance of climate change mitigation are not well understood.  Here, we develop and apply a storyline approach to address these issues, considering a severe event from June 2009 in Austria with some 3000 landslides as showcase. The approach leverages on convection permitting simulations that realistically represent the meteorological event while sampling uncertainties.  Depending on the changes of rainfall and soil moisture, the area affected during a 2009-type event could grow by 45% at 4 K global warming, although a slight reduction is also possible. Such growth could be reduced to less than 10% by limiting global warming according to the Paris agreement. Anticipated land-use changes towards a climate resilient forest would fully compensate for such a limited increase in hazard.

How to cite: Maraun, D., Knevels, R., Mishra, A. N., Truhetz, H., Bevacqua, E., Proske, H., Zappa, G., Brenning, A., Petschko, H., Schaffer, A., Leopold, P., and Puxley, B. L.: A severe landslide event in the Alpine foreland under possible future climate and land-use changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7465, 2022.

EGU22-7549 | Presentations | NH3.4

Thermal pressurization effect on landslide motion. Analysis with material point method. 

Núria Pinyol, Mauricio Alvarado, and Luis Lemus

Landslide motion can be affected by the thermal effects resulting from the dissipation in heat of the frictional work generated in shearing bands. This problem was initially addressed for simple landslide geometries which have to be defined a priori. In this context, these analyses assume the motion of a rigid block and the thermal-hydro-mechanical phenomena were solved at basal shearing bands and their vicinity.

Later on, in order to generalize the analysis and to face more complex geometries and features, governing equations were implemented in the material point framework. This numerical method (MPM) is able to model large strains and displacements thanks to the double discretization of the domain by means of a Eulerian computational mesh and Lagrangian material points. A new approach was proposed to deal with the pathological dependence of the frictional work generation and the computational mesh element size. The methodology consists in the definition of computational embedded joints whose thickness is defined as a material parameter. 

The presentation will show the formulation of the thermal pressurization phenomena in MPM. First, the methodology will be evaluated under triaxial conditions and simple landslide geometries using different mesh sizes.

Real cases are later analyzed and modelled in MPM. The first case refers to an incipient landslide induced by a drawdown. The potential risk of acceleration induced by thermal pressurization is analyzed. The non-accelerated behavior observed in the field is explained combining the frictional heating induced weakening with non-linear velocity dependent frictional hardening. The results show that increments of a few degrees of the frictional angle with slide velocity can counteract the heating induced acceleration. 

The second case discussed is a coseismic landslide whose acceleration and large run-out cannot be justified by means of simple strength law unless imposing an extremely and probably unrealistic strain softening.

How to cite: Pinyol, N., Alvarado, M., and Lemus, L.: Thermal pressurization effect on landslide motion. Analysis with material point method., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7549, 2022.

EGU22-8176 | Presentations | NH3.4

Permathawing permafrost 

Unnur Blær A. Bartsch, Guðrún Gísladóttir, and Harpa Grímsdóttir

Permafrost is perennially frozen ground occurring in about 24% of the exposed land surface in the northern hemisphere. The soil categorized as permafrost is named cryosol (or gelisol). Cryosol is widely spread in the Arctic, where it is continuous in the polar regions while in the sub-arctic it is discontinuous or sporadic. Iceland is located on the edge of the Arctic, and therefore permafrost can be found in many regions of the island. In addition, the frost effect is great, due to the unique climate and weather conditions and the high sensitivity of the Icelandic soil (volcanic soil – andosol). Although the distribution of permafrost is widespread it is in many respects dependent on the weather. As the climate warms, as it does now, the permafrost retreats rapidly, causing major changes in the earth’s surface. These changes can be accompanied by various dangers. In Iceland the retreat of permafrost in high mountains has led the top slopes to become unstable, leading to increased risk of landslides and similar hazards. In this project, permafrost in Iceland will be examined, more specifically the areas where permafrost is considered to be thawing and the dangers that accompany that thawing. The research area is by Strandartindur mountain in Seyðisfjörður. On the slope of Strandartindur is a rock glacier, which is in motion, but it is believed that permafrost is hidden in the ground beneath. The area is a well-known landslide area, where the source of landslides high up in Strandartindur is thick sediments that are partly considered permafrost or rock glaciers. Rock glaciers and thawing of permafrost in the vicinity and/or in the glacier threaten settlements in the area, due to landslides. This will be a threefold multidisciplinary project where aspects of natural hazards and society will be tied together; (i) data from soil thermometers and InSAR data will be examined, (ii) discussed and examined how permafrost can be included in monitoring, (iii) and how information on the dangers associated with permafrost can be disseminated to residents and the general public. The project will be useful for monitoring the hazard area at Strandartindur, while also for monitoring comparable areas in the country. It is hoped that the product of this project will be a monitoring research proposal. The result will show how best to measure permafrost, how best to monitor its thawing and how best to provide information to residents and the general public.

How to cite: A. Bartsch, U. B., Gísladóttir, G., and Grímsdóttir, H.: Permathawing permafrost, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8176, 2022.

EGU22-8247 | Presentations | NH3.4

Experimental analysis of seasonal processes in shallow landslide in a snowy region through downscaled and in situ observation 

Laura Longoni, Lorenzo Panzeri, Michele Mondani, and Monica Papini

The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events increased since the mid-20th century and, considering the climate crisis, it is important also to analyze the effects of processes and events that lead to faster snow mantle melting cycles in mountain areas.

Shallow landslides are induced by extreme hydrological events such as the occurrence of short and intense rainfall or by events of medium intensity but prolonged over time. Such slips involve generally reduced portions of land both in area and in thickness, however, they are dangerous due to the absence of warning signals and the lack of knowledge regarding their possible evolution.

This work deals with the experimental study of these landslides through the laboratory simulations on a small-scale slope, reproduced at the LIMAG Lab - Laboratory of mountain hydraulics and applied geology of the Lecco Campus and in situ seasonal processes observation at a mountain closed basin nearby Champoluc village in Aosta Valley region.

The central objective is to study the evolution of shallow landslides in reduced scale caused by external factor as snowmelt and rainfall and to compare the observations done in laboratory with the ones in situ. In order to investigate the behaviour of shallow landslides in these critical conditions, a series of sensors have been installed on the simulator. This technology includes three modified pressure transmitters for the pore water pressure evaluation which have been accompanied by other support instrumentation consisting of GoPro’s cameras, TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry) and georesistivimeter; all of them provide a cross check of phenomena processes.

Throughout the downscaled simulations with snow cover it was possible to observe several processes. The direct interaction between snow and ground does not favor the infiltration of a large amount of water. The protective role of snow lies in keeping the first film of soil at 0 degrees and loading the soil by decreasing its infiltrative capacity; this no longer occurs when the water melted by the snow flows downstream and begins to infiltrate into uncovered and warmer soils. Without thermal or overload barriers, the water pours into the ground. Therefore, a potential susceptible area can be the subject of different filtering and infiltrative contributions from upstream, saturating quickly and collapsing.

These laboratory experiments are the starting point for the in-situ analyses and provide a comparison with the observations made by means of ad hoc instrumentation set up at the Champoluc station. Highly detailed information is obtained concerning the density and thickness of the snowpack during seasonal processes. These contribute to defining the hydrogeological processes within the terrain, already studied in the laboratory, and to establishing the water balance.

How to cite: Longoni, L., Panzeri, L., Mondani, M., and Papini, M.: Experimental analysis of seasonal processes in shallow landslide in a snowy region through downscaled and in situ observation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8247, 2022.

EGU22-8302 | Presentations | NH3.4

The potential impact of predicted climatic change on future slope stability in Ireland 

Niamh Cullen and Mary Bourke

Globally landslides are triggered by a myriad of singular and complex causes however the response of the Irish landscape to predicted climate changes are unknown. Some limited data suggest that there may be an increasing trend observed in the frequency of landslides in Ireland, clustered around specific high magnitude rainfall events. Whether this trend is associated with a changing climate trend is unclear. None of the several peer reviewed compendiums that include regional landslide studies and climate have a dedicated contribution on Irelands landscape. We provide a summary of the climate of Ireland from Holocene to future modelled predictions. We present a qualitative assessment of the role of Irish climate and climate change on landslides by identifying specific climate aspects which are important for slope instabilities including precipitation receipts, intensity and variability; the tracks of storms and other rain bearing weather systems and temperature changes. We examine published case studies and an inventory of known landscape response to past weather to consider, qualitatively, the likely response of landslides to predicted future climate trends. We also present rainfall data for three recent landslides events in Ireland and identify areas that require further landslide research. Our review finds that climatic factors which are predicted for Ireland, are cited in the published literature as contributors to slope failures in the Irish landscape. Analysis of rainfall data for the three recent slope failures further support this. Our review suggests that Ireland may see an increase in the frequency of landslide occurrence in the future. Although the data suggests that the majority of failures occur in peat, we highlight a paucity of data for coastal slope failures.  

How to cite: Cullen, N. and Bourke, M.: The potential impact of predicted climatic change on future slope stability in Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8302, 2022.

EGU22-8407 | Presentations | NH3.4

Effect of temperature on post-earthquake landsliding near the epicentre of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake 

Marco Loche, Gianvito Scaringi, Ali P. Yunus, Filippo Catani, Hakan Tanyaş, William Frodella, Xuanmei Fan, and Luigi Lombardo

Geostatistical models of landslide susceptibility do not usually account for thermal data, although these data are widely available, and experiments demonstrate that temperature does influence the mechanical and hydraulic behaviours of soils and rocks via a variety of thermo-hydro-mechanically coupled processes.

We took the epicentral region of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China as our study area, for which a rich multi-temporal inventory of landslides is available. We built a landslide susceptibility model using a generalised additive model with a slope-unit partitioning of the area (~500 km2, comprising 42 sub-catchments), and a minimal set of covariates, including the map of peak ground acceleration of the mainshock and Landsat 7 land surface temperature (LST) data retrieved from Google Earth Engine.

We demonstrated that the LST relates to the decay of post-earthquake landslide activity, and in particular that warmer slopes seems to be comparatively more affected by prolonged landsliding. We also verified that LST data provided different insight from that offered by the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), by running our model with NDVI maps instead of LST maps. The two input maps showed little collinearity, and the variable effects of the NDVI in the model output showed less complexity compared to those of the LST. This hints at the presence of thermo-mechanical effects in slopes in addition to the known hydrological effects, the latter being associated with changes in evapotranspiration and thus in principle capturable by the NDVI.

Even though studies in other regions, seismic and non-seismic, are necessary, we suggest that thermal data should be used in landslide susceptibility modelling more systematically because they could potentially improve the model results and suggest physically-based relationships influencing slope stability.

How to cite: Loche, M., Scaringi, G., Yunus, A. P., Catani, F., Tanyaş, H., Frodella, W., Fan, X., and Lombardo, L.: Effect of temperature on post-earthquake landsliding near the epicentre of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8407, 2022.

EGU22-8429 | Presentations | NH3.4

Effects of temperature and shearing rate on the residual shear strength of two pure clays 

Gianvito Scaringi and Marco Loche

The residual shear strength is the sole available strength in regular shear zones of landslides after large displacements. While it does not depend on the stress history, it has been shown to depend on the rate of shearing. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain the shear-rate strengthening and weakening observed, in particular, in soils containing clay minerals. Frictional heating has been shown to be involved in shear weakening under very large shearing rates. However, changes in temperature (imposed as boundary conditions and propagating into the shear zone) also can affect the residual shear strength, even in drained condition, but evidence in the literature is scarce.

Here, we show results of temperature-controlled ring-shear tests on two pure clays (a commercial bentonite, very active, and a commercial kaolin, inactive), conducted under a wide range of shear displacement rates (0.02–45 mm/min) and normal stresses (50–150 kPa) typical of slow to rapid landslides. After attaining the residual shear strength under the chosen stress and displacement-rate conditions at room temperature (20 °C), we increased the temperature of the cell up to 55 °C and kept it constant over a sufficient shearing distance before gradually decreasing it back to the initial value.

We observed a clear effect of temperature on the residual shear strength of the active clay. We evaluated, in particular, a shear strengthening under slow shearing (up to +1.5 %/°C) which turned into a shear weakening under fast shearing (-0.5 %/°C) under any normal stress. We evaluated that the transition between the two behaviours occurred at a shear displacement rate of 0.1–1 mm/min, which is consistent with the range for the onset of shear rate-dependent behaviours. The effect produced by the increase in temperature was shown to be reversible, although in some cases we noticed a net decrease in strength that could be attributed to an improved alignment of the clay platelets resulting from the thermal cycle. Notably, little thermal effects were seen for the inactive clay, suggesting that such effects should originate from changes in physico-chemical forces of interaction at the microstructural level, which are indeed especially relevant in active clays.

Changes in residual shear strength with temperature could be related to changes in landslide activity (particularly for creeping landslides in clay soils) in terms of seasonal/progressive acceleration or deceleration driven by external hydro-meteorological forcing. Furthermore, these changes could also control the potential for runaway motion if a transition from a strengthening to a weakening behaviour occurs. 

How to cite: Scaringi, G. and Loche, M.: Effects of temperature and shearing rate on the residual shear strength of two pure clays, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8429, 2022.

EGU22-9678 | Presentations | NH3.4

Multi-site rock slope thermal monitoring: Initial results 

Ondřej Racek, Jan Blahůt, and Filip Hartvich

This presentation is dedicated to a short description of a combined rock slope thermal monitoring system. The newly designed system is affordable and modular, which predisposes it to installation at multiple sites. This system is being used to monitor four different rock slopes in Czechia for a period of up to 3 years. Slopes differ by lithology, structural setting aspect and modes of instability. The monitoring system consists of a climate station, rock mass surface zone thermal monitoring and unstable blocks crackmeter monitoring. Since 2018 we have instrumented 11 blocks, which differ in terms of shape, volume and mode of destabilization. Analyses of crackmeter, thermal and climatic time-series showed influences of weather and temperature cycles on the crackmeter aperture. Consequently, short-term (diurnal) and medium-term (annual) temperature cycles on the rock slope surficial zone were described. Data show high variability linked to the partial blocks geometry and rock slope properties.

How to cite: Racek, O., Blahůt, J., and Hartvich, F.: Multi-site rock slope thermal monitoring: Initial results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9678, 2022.

EGU22-10442 | Presentations | NH3.4

Temperature effect on the residual shear strength. 

Luis M. García, Edwin A. Soncco, Núria M. Pinyol, and Antonio Lloret

The available strength on slip surfaces in landslide after a significant displacement and at motion is the residual strength. The residual strength depends on the soil properties including both solid skeleton (mineralogy, particle shape and size, index properties) and pore fluid (chemical and rheological properties). The available strength also depends, as extensively reported in the literature, on several factors that may not remain constant in time and affect the landslide stability and dynamics: applied stress, accumulated displacement and shear strain rate. With a less extensive literature related to, the effect of temperature on the residual strength have been also observed.

This work reports on the results of a large number of ring shear tests under controlled rate and temperature performed on different types of soils. The results are interpreted in terms of the influence of mineralogy, clay content and plasticity on temperature effects on residual strength.

How to cite: García, L. M., Soncco, E. A., Pinyol, N. M., and Lloret, A.: Temperature effect on the residual shear strength., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10442, 2022.

EGU22-11120 | Presentations | NH3.4

Snow melt triggering of shallow landslides under climate change. The case study of Tartano valley, Italian Alps. 

Davide Danilo Chiarelli, Giovanni Martino Bombelli, Daniele Bocchiola, Renzo Rosso, and Maria Cristina Rulli

Shallow landslides (SLs) imply downhill movements of soil, rocks, debris. These typically occur on steep terrains, in mountainous, and hilly areas, representing a major risk for people and infrastructures. Properly mapping of shallow landslides in space and time is fundamental for prediction, forecast, and setting up of countermeasures. However, modelling of shallow landslides is complex, given (very) local nature of the phenomenon. Recently investigation started about the role of snow melt in triggering shallow landslides, displaying increasing evidence of catastrophic events at thaw. Little was done hitherto in modelling snow melt triggered SLs, especially in terms of physically based modeling. Under the umbrella of the recent project MHYCONOS, funded by Fondazione CARIPLO of Italy, we developed a robust, and parameter-wise parsimonious model, able to mimic triggering of SLs accounting for the combined effect of precipitation duration and intensity, and snowmelt at thaw. In our model, when temperature is below 0 °C, precipitation is stored as snowpack on the soil surface, and released later in thaw season. Storage of melting water during springtime increases soil moisture, so creating potential for SLs. The model is demonstratively applied to the Tartano river valley, in the Alps of Lombardia region of Italy. In this region mass movements and flash-floods in the wake of intense storms are common. Currently from our model about 26% of the Tartano valley displays (permanent) unstable conditions, more than 40% of it influenced by soil moisture changes. Conversely, by applying a traditional rainfall-based analysis, only 19% of the basin is predicted as potentially unstable, mainly in fall, when intense rainfall occurs. When including snowmelt as a cause of SLS triggering, one finds anticipation of the (modeled) peak of instability to springtime, during April and May. Forcing the model under 6 different climate change scenarios of IPCC at 2050, and 2100, an increase is expected in temperature (i.e. with rapider snow melt), and extreme precipitation events, further aggravating SLs hazard. Mapping zones prone to instability in space and time under present conditions, and future scenarios, will help to prevent casualties, and damages in the short-term, while providing base for structural mitigation measures in the long term, during periods of potential instability, even at low to medium rainfall rates.

How to cite: Chiarelli, D. D., Bombelli, G. M., Bocchiola, D., Rosso, R., and Rulli, M. C.: Snow melt triggering of shallow landslides under climate change. The case study of Tartano valley, Italian Alps., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11120, 2022.

EGU22-12658 | Presentations | NH3.4

Development of AI Algorithms for landslides prediction (Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy) 

Nicola Dal Seno and Matteo Berti

Landslide risk is one of the most relevant hazard that affects the Emilia-Romagna Region. Almost 80,000 landslides were mapped in the mountainous part, and the percentage of land covered by landslides exceeds in some areas 25%. Although most of the regional landslides are relatively slow, the economic impact is critical: in 2019, 1 million euros was allocated for urgent safety interventions, and it is estimated that at least another 80 would be needed to complete the plan. These numbers place the Emilia-Romagna Region among the areas with the highest landslide risk in the world. The geological characteristics of the Region, combined with the growing exploitation of the territory and the climatic changes underway, are making this problem more and more dramatic. It is now clear that emergency responses are no longer sufficient and that they must be accompanied by prevention actions devoted to mitigate the risk. 

The main objective of this work is to develop Artificial Intelligence models for the prediction of landslides in the Emilia-Romagna Region. The idea is to exploit the data collected by the University of Bologna in the last 15 years, as part of the research activities carried out in collaboration with the Regional Agency for Civil Protection and the Geological Survey of the Emilia-Romagna Region.

Available data consist of time series of rainfall, soil moisture, snow cover and displacement of some active landslides that have occurred in the region in recent years. The displacement data comes from permanent GPS stations, wire strain gauges, and robotic total stations installed in several landslides for emergency purposes. These data show clear relationships between precipitation and rate of movement. However, such relationships are difficult to reproduce using physically-based approaches.

The proposed machine learning approach was applied to the Emilia-Romagna Region of Italy taking advantage of the historical landslide archive, which includes more than 2210 rainfall events  that triggered 2363 landslide, and of the genetic classification algorithm TPOT (Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool) with more than 1million combinations of hyperparameters. The results show that landsliding in the study area is strongly related to rainfall event parameters (Precipitation during the event, The day of the event and in which location happened) while antecedent rainfall seems to be less important (Precipitation 30 and 60 days before the rainfall event). The distribution of landslides in the rainfall precipitation - day of the year chart shows that after the dry summer season a rain event of at least 90-100 mm is necessary to trigger a landslide. However, this number decreases as the day of the year increases, and then arrives in spring where many landslides are shown have been triggered with modest rain events (15-30 mm). The algorithm also provided an F1 test result score of 0.825, which means that it can predict a true positive (rainfall event triggers landslide) with a 70% of precision and with 95.5% about true negative (rainfall event do not triggers landslide).

How to cite: Dal Seno, N. and Berti, M.: Development of AI Algorithms for landslides prediction (Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12658, 2022.

EGU22-13375 | Presentations | NH3.4

Thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of clayey geological medium: Theoretical framework and numerical study 

Saeed Tourchi, Antonio Gens, Jean Vaunat, and Gianvito Scaringi

In recent years, interest in argillaceous rocks has increased because they are being considered as potential host geological media for underground repositories of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). The host rock around the repository cells, containing the exothermic waste canisters, will be submitted to various coupled mechanical, hydraulic, and thermal phenomena. For a proper understanding and appropriate modelling of the excavation damaged zone around repository cells at elevated temperatures, the combined effects of those phenomena should be considered in an advanced constitutive model. The thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model presented herein is dedicated to non-isothermal unsaturated porous media. The model is developed within the framework of elastoplasticity, which includes features that are relevant for the satisfactory prediction of THM behaviour in argillaceous rocks: anisotropy of strength and stiffness, behaviour nonlinearity and occurrence of plastic strains prior to peak strength, significant softening after peak, time-dependent creep deformations, permeability increase due to damage, and shrinking of the elastic domain and the degradation of stiffness and strength parameters with temperature.

The model was applied to the numerical simulation of a full-scale in situ heating test conducted on Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone, in the Meuse / Haute-Marne Underground Research Laboratory, simulating a heat-emitting, high-level radioactive waste disposal concept. The interpretation of the test was assisted by the performance of a numerical analysis based on a coupled formulation incorporating the relevant THM phenomena. Initial and boundary conditions for analysis, as well as material parameters, were determined from a comprehensive field and laboratory experimental programme. Thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical observations in COx claystone were discussed. The numerical analysis was able to accurately reproduce the behaviour of the experiment.

The performance and analysis of the in situ test have significantly enhanced the understanding of a complex THM problem, and have proved the ability of the theoretical formulation to provide adequate modelling capacities.

How to cite: Tourchi, S., Gens, A., Vaunat, J., and Scaringi, G.: Thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of clayey geological medium: Theoretical framework and numerical study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13375, 2022.

The study is aimed at verifying the reliability of the ERA5 reanalysis in reproducing histories of soil water fluxes exchanges (in terms of precipitation and evapotranspiration) leading to landslide events that actually occurred in Campania Region (Southern Italy). In the specific, the investigation deals with landslide events affecting pyroclastic covers result of repeated eruptions of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei over the course of millennia. Indeed, for many events occurred in the last years, it is hard to retrieve continuous and reliable atmospheric data provided by weather stations in the vicinity of the affected slopes. Under such constraints, it could be difficult to identify the weather patterns triggering the events and then how they could vary in a climate change perspective. To deal with these issues, the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis made available by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can represent a valuable support. ERA5 and its downscaling ERA5land return hourly data with an horizontal resolution of respectively 31km and 9 km over the entire globe. The data are available since Fifties and they are continuously updated with a delay of only 5 days for ERA5 and few months for ERA5land. Well-documented test cases over Campania Region for which long datasets of atmospheric data and details about the landslide events are available, are exploited to assess the capabilities of ERA5 reanalysis in reproducing antecedent and triggering soil water fluxes exchanges histories. Then, strengths and potential gaps are identified and thoroughly explained to permit a reliable adoption of the datasets.

How to cite: Rianna, G. and Reder, A.: Interpreting recent landslide events in Campania Region (Southern Italy) by using innovative approaches, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13399, 2022.

EGU22-13409 | Presentations | NH3.4

Climate-driven deterioration of long-life, long-linear geotechnical infrastructure 

Helen Brooks, Ross Stirling, Anthony Blake, Jessica Holmes, Zelong Yu, Arnaud Watlet, James Whiteley, Kevin Briggs, Alister Smith, Paul Hughes, Joe Smethurst, Jonathan Chambers, and Neil Dixon

Long-life, long linear geotechnical assets such as road, rail and flood embankments provide vital transport and flood defence infrastructure. Slope failures can close transport networks and cause delays, or can reduce the protection provided against flood hazards. This creates huge economic cost and can cause a risk to life for those using affected transport networks or resident on the floodplain. Where emergency repair is needed, the estimated cost of this is 10 times that of scheduled maintenance making effective asset management an industry priority (Glendinning et al., 2009).

However, projected climatic changes pose a threat to the stability of these assets. The most recent IPCC report highlighted projected future changes to temperatures and rainfall. These climatic changes alter the natural cycles of wetting and drying experienced by assets, which results in deterioration of asset performance. Deterioration can occur due to a variety of processes, including crack formation and propagation, downslope plastic strain accumulation and geochemical or mineralogical changes. These ultimately influence the strength, stiffness, permeability and water retention of the soil, which can often mean the construction standard of the asset is not maintained (Stirling et al., 2021).

The ACHILLES project aims to improve understanding of how these processes occur and how they may be affected by projected climatic change. Here, we introduce three large-scale field monitoring sites, including a purpose-built trial embankment, flood embankment and highway cutting. These assets are heavily instrumented to measure soil deformation, soil hydrology and local weather conditions, amongst others. Data from these sites are analysed to further understand deterioration processes and inform future design, construction, monitoring and management of these earthworks. We will discuss key insights from this project, including implications for stakeholders.

References:

Glendinning S, Hall J, Manning L (2009) Asset-management strategies for infrastructure embankments. Proc Inst Civ Eng Eng Sustain 162:111–120

Stirling RA, Toll DG, Glendinning S, Helm PR, Yildiz A, Hughes PN, Asquith JD. Weather-driven deterioration processes affecting the performance of embankment slopes. Géotechnique 2021, 71(11), 957-969.

How to cite: Brooks, H., Stirling, R., Blake, A., Holmes, J., Yu, Z., Watlet, A., Whiteley, J., Briggs, K., Smith, A., Hughes, P., Smethurst, J., Chambers, J., and Dixon, N.: Climate-driven deterioration of long-life, long-linear geotechnical infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13409, 2022.

Recent observation-based and modelling studies have highlighted the impacts of irrigation on near-surface climate, and it has been stressed that irrigation can alleviate hot extremes, change precipitation patterns and increase air moisture. However, most of the previous studies only focused on historical periods, while potential climate change, land cover conversions and irrigation method advances may alter both the magnitudes and patterns of irrigation-induced effects, thus the influence of irrigation in the future remains uncertain. To address this question, we will employ version 2 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) with an updated irrigation scheme considering different irrigation techniques, to detect the impacts of irrigation on near-surface climate under different future scenarios. To include the influence of climate, land cover and irrigation method, several Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios will be selected, and different scenarios of Irrigation Method Distribution (IMD) evolvement will be designed in line with SSP scenarios for this study. Different combinations of RCP, SSP and IMD scenarios will be used to force the model, and the outputs of these experiments will be analysed and compared. We anticipate that our results will reveal how irrigation-induced impacts on near-surface climate will evolve under different scenarios.

How to cite: Yao, Y. and Thiery, W.: Evolvement of irrigation-induced impacts on near-surface climate under future scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1465, 2022.

EGU22-1739 | Presentations | BG3.14

Mapping Blue-Green infrastructure to evaluate conditions in the Estonian coastal zone 

Volha Kaskevich, Miguel Villoslada Peciña, Raymond Ward, and Kalev Sepp

Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) is a framing concept concerning the connectivity of ecosystems, founded on nature-based solutions and a multi-functionality approach, which includes contributions by nature to disaster risk reduction, infrastructure resilience, erosion control, land formation, and other ecosystem services (World Risk Report, 2012). The study reviews the potential of areas of BGI to mitigate climate change (EEA Report, 2009) and produces maps showing fragmentation areas along the Estonian coast using UAVs and satellite imagery. This allows a more detailed and objective evaluation of the indicators of the conservation state and potential improvement of future connectivity between BGI elements, ensuring coverage of appropriate protection status for coastal habitats. Reliable estimation and understanding of the ecological integrity of habitats and species on the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network, including analysis of valuable coastal areas to define missing indicators and formulate essential markers for its resilience in Estonia. A disconnected series of inefficiently managed natural components produce far fewer public benefits than they have the potential for.

A comprehensive study of the Estonian coastal zone is based on Estonian legislation, Integrated Coastal Zone Management, the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) system, natural protected areas (NPA), the Estonian Green Network, Agricultural Registers, and Information Board (ARIB), Natura 2000, and benthic habitats datasets that apply to land use regulation in the development planning process to identify the appropriate intensity of land-use and conflicts of interest to be resolved. National BGI strategies, either independently or integrated into broader national policies, identify blue and green assets, corridors, and areas of particular importance outside protected areas that would help the policy instruments. Estonia has been actively planning a blue-green infrastructure approach since 1983, at least in the ecological network sense on a national level, and elaborates the model into a comprehensive plan and implementation program.

 

How to cite: Kaskevich, V., Villoslada Peciña, M., Ward, R., and Sepp, K.: Mapping Blue-Green infrastructure to evaluate conditions in the Estonian coastal zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1739, 2022.

EGU22-1815 | Presentations | BG3.14

Changes to the Earth’s energy budget due to global forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation 

Raphael Portmann, Urs Beyerle, Edouard Davin, Erich Fischer, Steven De Hertog, and Sebastian Schemm

Recent controversies about the climatic consequences of forestation and deforestation have centered on the carbon storage potential of forests and the local or global thermodynamic impacts due to biogeophysical effects. So far, not much attention has been given to the changes that biogeophysical effects of forestation and deforestation impose on the atmospheric and ocean circulation and consequently on remote weather and climate.  Here we discuss how the changes in the Earth's energy balance following global-scale forestation and deforestation alter the global atmospheric circulation patterns and even have profound effects on the ocean circulation. We perform multicentury coupled climate model simulations in which preindustrial vegetation cover is either completely forested or deforested and carbon dioxide mixing ratio is kept constant. Forestation leads to global warming of +0.5 K, which is most pronounced over northern extratropical land. Consequently, the meridional heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere decreases in the forestation simulation. The reduction mainly occurs in the ocean as a result of a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Extratropical land-warming results further in weaker and poleward shifted weather systems, which, via momentum feedback to the mean flow leads to an attenuation and poleward displacement of the extratropical jet stream. Deforestation leads to global cooling of -1.6 K, a stronger AMOC and extratropical jet stream, a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and a stronger Hadley cell in boreal winter, and a weaker Hadley cell in boreal summer. In many aspects, deforestation causes the reverse patterns compared to forestation but with larger amplitudes. These larger amplitudes are mostly related to a strong snow-ice-albedo feedback in high latitudes. Both land surface changes substantially affect regional precipitation, temperature, and surface wind patterns across the globe. The design process of large-scale forestation projects thus needs to take into account global circulation adjustments and their influence on remote climate.

How to cite: Portmann, R., Beyerle, U., Davin, E., Fischer, E., De Hertog, S., and Schemm, S.: Changes to the Earth’s energy budget due to global forestation and deforestation affect remote climate via adjusted atmosphere and ocean circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1815, 2022.

Drought is a complex climatic hazard with major impacts on both human and natural system. It is very likely leading to agricultural loss, forest mortality and drinking water scarcity. In recent years, the occurrence frequency and intensity of droughts has been increasing within a warming climate. This poses serious threats to future food security, ecosystem (e.g., changing the forest structure and carbon content) and fresh water stress for small islands. Precipitation, temperature and other atmospheric factors have an influence on the drought conditions. Furthermore, the impact of land cover change on climate mostly on precipitation and temperature has been established in previous studies. To our best knowledge, the effect of change in land cover, especially in large forest cover, on droughts is largely unexplored. This, however, is important to understand the impact of land cover on climate variability and the sensitivity of the droughts to changes in the climate. This study aims at quantifying the effect of forest cover change and changing meteorological factors  on long-term and short-term droughts across four different climate regions (i.e. equatorial, arid, temperate and snow region).

We analyse the influence of forest cover changes to droughts. Meteorological data (precipitation and temperature), land cover dataset, and drought indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) for almost 30 years are used to study the influence of forest cover fraction variability on droughts for different time scales and across different climate zones. Linear model and analysis of variance (ANOVA) have been used in the analysis to explore how forest cover changes impact on the drought occurrence frequency and intensity. Our findings can be used in making policy decision involved in forest management and water resource planning. 

How to cite: Li, Y. and Rust, H. W.: Assessment of drought index response to changes in forest cover across different climate zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3518, 2022.

EGU22-5515 | Presentations | BG3.14

Towards integration of LCLM feedbacks within climate models: an emulator approach 

Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Sonia Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Land Cover and Land Management (LCLM) changes display complex interactions with climate conditions, and can in particular modulate regional-scale extreme climate events such as heat waves and droughts. Relatedly, the potential of LCLM for not only climate mitigation but also adaptation has been underlined; it could thus play a role in achieving the corresponding goals of the Paris Agreement. It is thus essential to account for LCLM processes and their climate feedbacks within climate models, in order to inform land-use scenarios that help comply with climate and broader environmental objectives in a comprehensive manner. Emulators represent a computationally cheap but effective way of approximating climate models with an added advantage of agility in scenario exploration. Here we outline a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) based emulator approach to represent LCLM-Climate feedbacks simulated in Earth System Models (ESMs). The emulator is to be used in the LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation (LAMACLIMA) project, and is trained on dedicated ESM simulations which isolate the effects of de/afforestation, wood harvest and irrigation.

We showcase the emulator’s ability to represent local, monthly surface temperature responses to de/afforestation using input variables of tree cover change, longitude, latitude and orography. Spatial cross-validation is used to fit and tune the emulator, thus considering spatial autocorrelations within the training material. The resulting emulator can be used to estimate surface temperature changes over a major part of the globe and for a variety of possible tree cover changes. Such also enables us to identify the geographical areas and types of tree cover changes which are of high uncertainty within the emulator. This provides us with valuable insight into the additional ESM simulations that would be required to improve its representation of temperature responses to de/afforestation. Extending this framework to wood harvest and irrigation could then provide more clarity on the uncertainties underlying LCLM-Climate feedbacks as represented within ESMs.

How to cite: Nath, S., Lejeune, Q., Seneviratne, S., and Schleussner, C.-F.: Towards integration of LCLM feedbacks within climate models: an emulator approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5515, 2022.

EGU22-6264 | Presentations | BG3.14

Do solid waste landfills really decrease the environmental value? The case of the Valencia Region (Spain) 

Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri, María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero, Claudia P. Romero, and Patricio Suárez-Romero

The effect of municipal solid waste landfills over the surrounding environment is often understood to be highly critical, even greatly modifying the existing land use. However, objective evaluations of this environmental impcts are seldom being performed. This work shows results obtained when evaluating the land use change induced by MSW landfills applying the Weighted Environmental index (WEI). WEI is based on the use of GIS techniques accounting for different information sources (digital cartography, aerial photographs and satellite images). WEI assigns environmental values to land use based on the degree of anthropogenic intervention and its occupation surface.

A georeferenced multitemporal statistical analysis is performed considering the values of WEI previously assigned to every land use. The methodology has been applied to analyze the land use change near all the existing MSW landfills in operation of Valencia Region (Spain).  Data have been obtained from the Spanish Land Occupation Information System (SIOSE) public database and integrate the more recent GIS information about land use/land cover. 

How to cite: Rodrigo-Ilarri, J., Rodrigo-Clavero, M.-E., Romero, C. P., and Suárez-Romero, P.: Do solid waste landfills really decrease the environmental value? The case of the Valencia Region (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6264, 2022.

EGU22-6524 | Presentations | BG3.14

Trade-offs in strategies for climate-smart forestry in Europe 

Konstantin Gregor, Thomas Knoke, Andreas Krause, Christopher Reyer, Mats Lindeskog, Phillip Papastefanou, Anne-Sofie Lansø, Benjamin Smith, and Anja Rammig

Forests are a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. However, forests are affected by climate change and measures need to be taken to adapt them to changing conditions. In this context it is also important to consider forests not only as carbon stocks because they provide numerous other important ecosystem services.

“Climate-smart forestry” aims at combining the three aspects of mitigation, adaptation, and continued provision of ecosystem services. Finding concrete strategies for climate-smart forestry is complicated since future climate projections have large uncertainties. Here, we combine dynamic vegetation modeling with robust multi-criteria optimization to assess potentials and issues when trying to make European forest management “climate-smart”.

We applied the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS and simulated multiple simplified forest management options for a range of climate change scenarios defined by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We then defined indicators to measure the performance of various ecosystem services such as global climate change mitigation, local climate regulation through biogeophysical effects, timber provision, and biodiversity. Finally, we used robust multi-criteria optimization to compute forest management portfolios that ensure continued provision of these ecosystem services for all RCPs.

Our optimized portfolios contain large fractions (between 20 and 30%) of unmanaged forest because of its benefits for biodiversity and local climate regulation. Concerning mitigation, unmanaged forests play a divided role, depending on the assumptions about future use of wood products and the carbon-intensity of non-wood products that could be substituted, e.g. concrete. In addition, a higher share of broadleaved species is proposed throughout Europe, whereas coppice was only found to be beneficial in certain regions, typically regions where it is not a major forest type currently.

Overall, we found that climate-smart forestry cannot eliminate all trade-offs: An implementation of the portfolios would lead to strong decreases in harvests which lowers the important mitigation potential of wood products. Furthermore we argue that the decrease in harvests could lead to increases in wood imports of possibly unsustainable sources. We thus conclude that while our method offers important insights for forest management strategies, careful considerations need to be made to constrain its application. Namely, concrete prioritization of some ecosystem services will likely be necessary.

How to cite: Gregor, K., Knoke, T., Krause, A., Reyer, C., Lindeskog, M., Papastefanou, P., Lansø, A.-S., Smith, B., and Rammig, A.: Trade-offs in strategies for climate-smart forestry in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6524, 2022.

EGU22-8109 | Presentations | BG3.14

Regional climate modelling confirms the enhancement of cloud cover over EU forests diagnosed with satellite records 

Luca Caporaso, Gregory Duveiller, Graziano Giuliani, Filippo Giorgi, and Alessandro Cescatti

Forests can significantly influence local climate both by altering the carbon cycle (biogeochemical effects) and changing the surface energy budget (biophysical effects). While the former effect is well established in international climate policies and accounted for in mitigating strategies, the latter is not included in the negotiations. This is because the high level of uncertainties and the spatial variability of biophysical effects have made it impractical to offer clear advice on which policymakers could act. That said, the impact of these effects is non-negligible and ignoring them may lead to biased and non-optimal land-based climate policies. 

One such effect that is seldom studied is how changes in forest cover can alter the cloud regime, which can potentially have repercussions on the hydrological cycle, the surface radiation budget and possibly on the planetary albedo itself. Following a recent study (Duveiller et al. 2021) that provides a global scale assessment of this effect derived from satellite remote sensing observations, we conducted a similar experiment using a climate model simulation to explore if such patterns could be reproduced. We performed a simulation at a convection-permitting grid spacing of 5 km over the larger European domain using the regional climate model (RegCM4) coupled with CLM4.5. We assessed the signal of forest cover on the cloud regime by applying a space-for-time substitution over a local moving window across the simulated cloud fractional cover for the period 2004–2014, fully in-line with the methodology applied by Duveiller et al. on the satellite records.

Results show that afforestation generally leads to an increase in low cloud cover over most of the domain, confirming the results obtained by Duveiller et al. with the observation-based assessment. We found that the impacts of deforestation on cloud cover using these two different datasets shows a similar magnitude and seasonal pattern. At the local scale the observations and climate model results agree on the potential cloud cover increase/decrease caused by afforestation/deforestation. 
Results showed the capability of a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model to detect the magnitude and the main patterns of potential indirect effects of forest cover change on the local cloud cover. Overall, this indirect biophysical effect would add further climatic value to forests beyond that of carbon sequestration and local surface cooling by evaporation.
The need for a comprehensive view on the climate impacts of forests is particularly timely and relevant for Europe. Our assessment provides further guidance that could assist land planners by indicating where afforestation measures could trigger positive feedbacks on cloud cover. This would further add value to the design of ambitious nature-based policies such as the European Green Deal.

How to cite: Caporaso, L., Duveiller, G., Giuliani, G., Giorgi, F., and Cescatti, A.: Regional climate modelling confirms the enhancement of cloud cover over EU forests diagnosed with satellite records, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8109, 2022.

EGU22-9145 | Presentations | BG3.14

Global land use transitions and their drivers during 1960-2019 

Karina Winkler, Richard Fuchs, Mark Rounsevell, and Martin Herold

Land use/cover change is central to understanding the global sustainability challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and food security. Yet, while the magnitude of global land use has often been studied, little is known about land use transitions and their drivers, and how these vary across the world. A major obstacle has been the lack of consistent long-term data with sufficiently high resolution.
Here we analyse the drivers of major global land use transitions based on a novel high-resolution land use reconstruction, HILDA+ (Historic Land Dynamics Assessment+). We (1) identify key land use transitions and their spatiotemporal patterns and (2) correlate national time series of annual land use transitions with a range of influencing variables that represent indirect drivers (demography, politics and economics) and direct drivers (production and environment) across the globe.
We identify 12 major land use transitions and find that agricultural expansion accounted for the largest share of global land use change (~7.6 million km2), an area as large as Greece every year between 1960 and 2019. A major portion of this land is made up of pasture/rangeland expansion, mainly used for nomadic pastoralism. Areas of cropland expansion are mainly located in the Global South, particularly in South America (Argentina, Brazil), Africa (Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda), India and Thailand. Here we notice a shift of agricultural expansion from South America to Africa since the late 1980s. Globally, forest loss (~3.6 million km2), including deforestation for pasture/rangelands or cropland and forest degradation to shrub/grassland, outweighed forest expansion (~2.6 million km2) during 1960-2019. Whereas forestry, crop-pasture dynamics and cropland abandonment dominated in the Global North, deforestation, forest degradation and agricultural expansion are major transitions of the Global South.
Our driver analysis reveals that economic factors are the largest indirect drivers of global land use transitions in terms of area (~6.7 million km2). Of these, Gross Domestic Production (GDP) is the strongest driver in the Global North, mainly for forest expansion, forestry and urban growth. In contrast, wage and cereal price lead the list in the South, mostly related to agricultural expansion. Indirect-direct driver combinations of economy with production (~4.7 million km2), politics with production (~3.2 million km2) and demography with production (~2.3 million km2) affected the largest areas. We find that environmental indicators have a greater influence on land use change in the South, related to deforestation or desertification, than in the North, linked to crop-pasture dynamics. Indirect drivers show higher correlations than direct drivers, which underlines the importance of social systems on the extent and speed of land use change.
Giving new data-driven and quantitative insights into a largely untouched field, we reveal the importance of indirect drivers from economy, politics and demography for land use transitions across the globe. Learning from the recent past, understanding how socio-economic and environmental factors affect the way humans use the land surface is essential for estimating impacts of land use change and implementing measures of climate mitigation and sustainable land use policies. With our findings, we can make a contribution to this.

How to cite: Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, M., and Herold, M.: Global land use transitions and their drivers during 1960-2019, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9145, 2022.

EGU22-11533 | Presentations | BG3.14

Simulated unintended biogeochemical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes 

Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven De Hertog, Wim Thiery, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Julia Pongratz

Land management and anthropogenic land cover change (LMLCC) plays a key role in the global carbon budget. For example, approximately half of the terrestrial biomass has been removed by LMLCC to date. Conversely, large potentials for carbon dioxide removal are invoked when vegetation-based negative emission technologies such as afforestation are discussed. Previous studies on LMLCC effects on the carbon cycle focused on the direct effect of tree removal or regrowth on carbon fluxes. However, a suite of studies has shown that LMLCC has an important influence on climate via biogeophysical effects through changes in energy and water fluxes. This influence can reach far beyond the location of LMLCC, called the "nonlocal effect" of LMLCC on climate. This raises the question if LMLCC can also have non-negligible effects on the carbon cycle remote from the LMLCC location itself. Our study establishes the concept how to investigate strength and patterns of the unintended nonlocal side-effects of LMLCC on carbon stocks and fluxes.

Therefore, we conducted three different fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean-land experiments of idealized global cropland expansion with and without cropland irrigation as well as global re-/afforestation starting from today's state over a 150-year period under present day solar and trace gas forcing. All experiments were simulated by three different earth system models (MPI-ESM, EC-EARTH and CESM) to additionally quantify inter-model uncertainty and potentially uncover specific model biases. Here only CESM and MPI-ESM results are presented. To separate the local and nonlocal effects we use a checkerboard approach of grid boxes with and without LMLCC as proposed by Winckler et al., 2017. That is, we separate the carbon stock changes due to LMLCC at the location of LMLCC (local effect) from those induced by climate change caused by remote LMLCC (nonlocal effect). The total effect is the sum of both, the local and nonlocal effect.

The results of MPI-ESM (CESM) show that the global nonlocal effect on vegetation carbon (cVeg) accounts for 6% (3%) and 4% (0.6%) of total cVeg changes for crop expansion and afforestation simulation, respectively. Additionally, applying irrigation to crop expansion strongly increases the nonlocal climate induced cVeg change by 52% (610%) of total cVeg change for MPI-ESM (CESM).  The nonlocal effect of regions with largest carbon changes exhibit partly much larger nonlocal/total ratio. For instance, the nonlocal cVeg change in the Congo basin after cropland expansion accounts for more than 30% of total cVeg change. Furthermore, in some regions, the nonlocal effect of cVeg can be opposite to the local effect, and may thus reduce the total effect of the LMLCC practice compared to what would be expected from the local effect alone.

Overall, the results from MPI-ESM and CESM indicate that the nonlocal carbon effect is important in key regions and can even become globally important for the irrigation practices. In addition to local effects, these unintended nonlocal effects need to be considered when the impacts of a LMLCC practice on the entire carbon cycle (e.g., also with regard to a potential carbon dioxide removal method) will be assessed.

How to cite: Guo, S., Havermann, F., De Hertog, S., Thiery, W., Luo, F., Manola, I., Coumou, D., Lejeune, Q., Schleussner, C.-F., and Pongratz, J.: Simulated unintended biogeochemical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11533, 2022.

EGU22-11937 | Presentations | BG3.14

Tropical deforestation drives strong dry-season precipitation reductions at large spatial scales 

Callum Smith, Jessica Baker, and Dominick Spracklen

Tropical forests play a critical role in the hydrological cycle and can impact local and regional precipitation. To date, the effects of tropical deforestation on precipitation have largely been assessed based on case studies focused on a specific region, with the broader impacts being poorly constrained. Here, we make the first pan-tropical assessment of how tropical forest loss between 2003 and 2017 impacts precipitation at a range of spatial scales, using satellite, station-based and reanalysis datasets. We find the impact of forest loss on precipitation increases at larger spatial scales, with satellite datasets (n=9) showing robust reductions in precipitation at scales greater than ~50 km. The greatest relative declines in precipitation were observed at ~200 km, where reductions in canopy cover caused a 30% decrease in dry season precipitation (satellite data). Station-based and reanalysis datasets were unable to capture the precipitation response to deforestation shown by satellite datasets, likely due to limited tropical in situ data and poor representation of surface changes in land-surface schemes. Our analysis provides further evidence that tropical deforestation disrupts the forest-rainfall cascade, with consequences for forest ecosystems, human settlements and agriculture downwind that are reliant on moisture propagated inland through recycling over forests.

How to cite: Smith, C., Baker, J., and Spracklen, D.: Tropical deforestation drives strong dry-season precipitation reductions at large spatial scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11937, 2022.

EGU22-12746 | Presentations | BG3.14

Albedo-mediated interactive effects of land- and snow cover changes on the radiative forcing in Northern Italy 

Albin Hammerle, Erich Tasser, Michael Matiu, and Georg Wohlfahrt

The Alps are experiencing large climatic and socio-economic changes. Climate change is leading to an above-average increase in temperatures and subsequent changes in the timing and duration of snow cover. In parallel, socio-economic changes are affecting land use in the Alpine region. Both, snow cover duration/timing and land use changes directly affect the surface albedo of this landscape and therefore the energy balance of this region. Globally, changes in surface albedo due to land use changes and changes in snow/ice cover affect surface albedo, and thus radiative forcing, in opposite directions.
In this study, we investigated the impact of four different future land use scenarios, 12 future snow cover scenarios on the surface albedo in the alpine region of South Tyrol (Italy) in the year 2100 compared to conditions in 2010. Both, the individual effects of changes in land use and future snow cover patterns were investigated, as well as the interactive effects of these two processes.
The hypothetical changes in albedo until 2100 associated with changes in land and/or snow cover were assessed by establishing a surface albedo model based on remotely sensed albedo (MODIS MCD43A1), snow cover data (MODIS MOD10A1), land cover data, as well as geographical information (ASTER ASTGTM).  Potential future land covers were developed on the basis of likely socio-economic pathways and their spatial distribution was mapped. Snow cover scenarios for 2100 are based on EURO CORDEX RCP 2.6 and 8.5 climate scenarios.
Snow cover was by far the most important predictor for albedo, followed by the occurrence of needle leaf forests using a regression tree algorithm. This algorithm exhibited excellent skill in modelling current albedo conditions based on the above-mentioned predictors.
Likely future snow cover conditions lead to a decrease in average albedo, the magnitude of which depended on the chosen RCP and combination of global/regional climate model. Likely future land cover scenarios caused changes in spatially averaged albedo of the study domain in the same order of magnitude like the RCP 2.6 snow cover scenarios. Simulations with factorial combinations of land cover and snow cover scenarios showed the compounding effect of these two processes. 

 

 

How to cite: Hammerle, A., Tasser, E., Matiu, M., and Wohlfahrt, G.: Albedo-mediated interactive effects of land- and snow cover changes on the radiative forcing in Northern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12746, 2022.

EGU22-2024 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2 | Highlight

Understanding natural hazards in a changing landscape: A citizen science approach in Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda 

Violet Kanyiginya, Ronald Twongyirwe, Grace Kagoro, David Mubiru, Matthieu Kervyn, and Olivier Dewitte

The Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda, is a mountainous tropical region with a high population density, intense rainfall, alternating wet and dry seasons and high weathering rates. As a result, the region is regularly affected by multiple natural hazards such as landslides, floods, heavy storms, and earthquakes. In addition, deforestation and land use changes are assumed to have an influence on the patterns of natural hazards and their impacts in the region. Landscape characteristics and dynamics controlling the occurrence and the spatio-temporal distribution of natural hazards in the region remain poorly understood. In this study, citizen science has been employed to document and understand the spatial and temporal occurrence of natural hazards that affect the Kigezi highlands in relation to the multi-decadal landscape change of the region. We present the methodological research framework involving three categories of participatory citizen scientists. First, a network of 15 geo-observers (i.e., citizens of local communities distributed across representative landscapes of the study area) was established in December 2019. The geo-observers were trained at using smartphones to collect information (processes and impacts) on eight different natural hazards occurring across their parishes. In a second phase, eight river watchers were selected at watershed level to monitor the stream flow characteristics. These watchers record stream water levels once daily and make flood observations. In both categories, validation and quality checks are done on the collected data for further analysis. Combining with high resolution rainfall monitoring using rain gauges installed in the watersheds, the data are expected to characterize catchment response to flash floods. Lastly, to reconstruct the historical landscape change and natural hazards occurrences in the region, 96 elderly citizens (>70 years of age) were engaged through interviews and focus group discussions to give an account of the evolution of their landscape over the past 60 years. We constructed a historical timeline for the region to complement the participatory mapping and in-depth interviews with the elderly citizens. During the first 24 months of the project, 240 natural hazard events with accurate timing information have been reported by the geo-observers. Conversion from natural tree species to exotic species, increased cultivation of hillslopes, road construction and abandonment of terraces and fallowing practices have accelerated natural hazards especially flash floods and landslides in the region. Complementing with the region’s historical photos of 1954 and satellite images, major landscape dynamics have been detected. The ongoing data collection involving detailed ground-based observations with citizens shows a promising trend in the generation of new knowledge about natural hazards in the region.

How to cite: Kanyiginya, V., Twongyirwe, R., Kagoro, G., Mubiru, D., Kervyn, M., and Dewitte, O.: Understanding natural hazards in a changing landscape: A citizen science approach in Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2024, 2022.

EGU22-2929 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Possible Contributions of Citizen Science in the Development of the Next Generation of City Climate Services 

Peter Dietrich, Uta Ködel, Sophia Schütze, Felix Schmidt, Fabian Schütze, Aletta Bonn, Thora Herrmann, and Claudia Schütze

Human life in cities is already affected by climate change. The effects will become even more pronounced in the coming years and decades. Next-generation of city climate services is necessary for adapting infrastructures and the management of services of cities to climate change. These services are based on advanced weather forecast models and the access to diverse data. It is essential to keep in mind that each citizen is a unique individual with their own peculiarities, preferences, and behaviors. The base for our approach is the individual specific exposure, which considers that people perceive the same conditions differently in terms of their well-being. Individual specific exposure can be defined as the sum of all environmental conditions that affect humans during a given period of time, in a specific location, and in a specific context. Thereby, measurable abiotic parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, pollution and noise are used to characterize the environmental conditions. Additional information regarding green spaces, trees, parks, kinds of streets and buildings, as well as available infrastructures are included in the context. The recording and forecasting of environmental parameters while taking into account the context, as well as the presentation of this information in easy-to-understand and easy-to-use maps, are critical for influencing human behavior and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation measures.

We will adopt this approach within the frame of the recently started, EU-funded CityCLIM project. We aim to develop and implement approaches which will explore the potential of citizen science in terms of current and historical data collecting, data quality assessment and evaluation of data products.  In addition, our approach will also provide strategies for individual climate data use, and the derivation and evaluation of climate change adaptation actions in cities.

In a first step we need to define and to characterize the different potential stakeholder groups involved in citizen science data collection. Citizen science offers approaches that consider citizens as both  organized target groups (e.g., engaged companies, schools) and individual persons (e.g. hobby scientists). An important point to be investigated is the motivation of citizen science stakehoder groups to sustainably collect data and make it available to science and reward them accordingly. For that purpose, strategic tools, such as value proposition canvas analysis, will be applied to taylor the science-to-business and the science-to-customer communications and offers in terms of the individual needs.

How to cite: Dietrich, P., Ködel, U., Schütze, S., Schmidt, F., Schütze, F., Bonn, A., Herrmann, T., and Schütze, C.: Possible Contributions of Citizen Science in the Development of the Next Generation of City Climate Services, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2929, 2022.

EGU22-4168 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Extending Rapid Image Classification with the Picture Pile Platform for Citizen Science 

Tobias Sturn, Linda See, Steffen Fritz, Santosh Karanam, and Ian McCallum

Picture Pile is a flexible web-based and mobile application for ingesting imagery from satellites, orthophotos, unmanned aerial vehicles and/or geotagged photographs for rapid classification by volunteers. Since 2014, there have been 16 different crowdsourcing campaigns run with Picture Pile, which has involved more than 4000 volunteers who have classified around 11.5 million images. Picture Pile is based on a simple mechanic in which users view an image and then answer a question, e.g., do you see oil palm, with a simple yes, no or maybe answer by swiping the image to the right, left or downwards, respectively. More recently, Picture Pile has been modified to classify data into categories (e.g., crop types) as well as continuous variables (e.g., degree of wealth) so that additional types of data can be collected.

The Picture Pile campaigns have covered a range of domains from classification of deforestation to building damage to different types of land cover, with crop type identification as the latest ongoing campaign through the Earth Challenge network. Hence, Picture Pile can be used for many different types of applications that need image classifications, e.g., as reference data for training remote sensing algorithms, validation of remotely sensed products or training data of computer vision algorithms. Picture Pile also has potential for monitoring some of the indicators of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Picture Pile Platform is the next generation of the Picture Pile application, which will allow any user to create their own ‘piles’ of imagery and run their own campaigns using the system. In addition to providing an overview of Picture Pile, including some examples of relevance to SDG monitoring, this presentation will provide an overview of the current status of the Picture Pile Platform along with the data sharing model, the machine learning component and the vision for how the platform will function operationally to aid environmental monitoring.

How to cite: Sturn, T., See, L., Fritz, S., Karanam, S., and McCallum, I.: Extending Rapid Image Classification with the Picture Pile Platform for Citizen Science, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4168, 2022.

EGU22-5094 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Life in undies – Preliminary results of a citizen science data collection targeting soil health assessement in Hungary 

Mátyás Árvai, Péter László, Tünde Takáts, Zsófia Adrienn Kovács, Kata Takács, János Mészaros, and László Pásztor

Last year, the Institute for Soil Sciences, Centre for Agricultural Research launched Hungary's first citizen science project with the aim to obtain information on the biological activity of soils using a simple estimation procedure. With the help of social media, the reactions on the call for applications were received from nearly 2000 locations. 

In the Hungarian version of the international Soil your Undies programme, standardized cotton underwear was posted to the participants with a step-by-step tutorial, who buried their underwear for about 60 days, from mid of May until July in 2021, at a depth of about 20-25 cm. After the excavation, the participants took one digital image of the underwear and recorded the geographical coordinates, which were  uploaded to a GoogleForms interface together with several basic information related to the location and the user (type of cultivation, demographic data etc.).

By analysing digital photos of the excavated undies made by volunteers, we obtained information on the level to which cotton material had decomposed in certain areas and under different types of cultivation. Around 40% of the participants buried the underwear in garden, 21% in grassland, 15% in orchard, 12% in arable land, 5% in vineyard and 4% in forest (for 3% no landuse data was provided).

The images were first processed using Fococlipping and Photoroom softwares for background removing and then percentage of cotton material remaining was estimated based on the pixels by using R Studio ‘raster package’.

The countrywide collected biological activity data from nearly 1200 sites were statistically evaluated by spatially aggregating the data both for physiographical and administrative units. The results have been published on various platforms (Facebook, Instagram, specific web site etc.), and a feedback is also given directly to the volunteers.

According to the experiments the first citizen science programme proved to be successful. 

 

Acknowledgment: Our research was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH; K-131820)

Keywords: citizen science; soil life; soil health; biological activity; soil properties

How to cite: Árvai, M., László, P., Takáts, T., Kovács, Z. A., Takács, K., Mészaros, J., and Pásztor, L.: Life in undies – Preliminary results of a citizen science data collection targeting soil health assessement in Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5094, 2022.

EGU22-5147 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Distributed databases for citizen science 

Julien Malard-Adam, Joel Harms, and Wietske Medema

Citizen science is often heavily dependent on software tools that allow members of the general population to collect, view and submit environmental data to a common database. While several such software platforms exist, these often require expert knowledge to set up and maintain, and server and data hosting costs can become quite costly in the long term, especially if a project is successful in attracting many users and data submissions. In the context of time-limited project funding, these limitations can pose serious obstacles to the long-term sustainability of citizen science projects as well as their ownership by the community.

One the other hand, distributed database systems (such as Qri and Constellation) dispense with the need for a centralised server and instead rely on the devices (smartphone or computer) of the users themselves to store and transmit community-generated data. This new approach leads to the counterintuitive result that distributed systems, contrarily to centralised ones, become more robust and offer better availability and response times as the size of the user pool grows. In addition, since data is stored by users’ own devices, distributed systems offer interesting potential for strengthening communities’ ownership over their own environmental data (data sovereignty). This presentation will discuss the potential of distributed database systems to address the current technological limitations of centralised systems for open data and citizen science-led data collection efforts and will give examples of use cases with currently available distributed database software platforms.

How to cite: Malard-Adam, J., Harms, J., and Medema, W.: Distributed databases for citizen science, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5147, 2022.

EGU22-5571 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

RESECAN: citizen-driven seismology on an active volcano (Cumbre Vieja, La Palma Island, Canaries) 

Rubén García-Hernández, José Barrancos, Luca D'Auria, Vidal Domínguez, Arturo Montalvo, and Nemesio Pérez

During the last decades, countless seismic sensors have been deployed throughout the planet by different countries and institutions. In recent years, it has been possible to manufacture low-cost MEMS accelerometers thanks to nanotechnology and large-scale development. These devices can be easily configured and accurately synchronized by GPS. Customizable microcontrollers like Arduino or RaspBerryPI can be used to develop low-cost seismic stations capable of local data storage and real-time data transfer. Such stations have a sufficient signal quality to be used for complementing conventional seismic networks.

In recent years Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) has developed a proprietary low-cost seismic station to implement the Canary Islands School Seismic Network (Red Sísmica Escolar Canaria - RESECAN) with multiple objectives:

  • supporting the teaching of geosciences.
  • promoting the scientific vocation.
  • strengthening the resilience of the local communities by improving awareness toward volcanism and the associated hazards.
  • Densifying the existing seismic networks.

On Sept. 19th 2021, a volcanic eruption started on the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma. The eruption was proceeded and accompanied by thousands of earthquakes, many of them felt with intensities up to V MCS. Exploiting the attention drawn by the eruption, INVOLCAN started the deployment of low-cost seismic stations in La Palma in educational centres. In this preliminary phase, we selected five educational centres on the island.

The project's objective is to create and distribute low-cost stations in various educational institutions in La Palma and later on the whole Canary Islands Archipelago, supplementing them with educational material on the topics of seismology and volcanology. Each school will be able to access the data of its station, as well as those collected by other centres, being able to locate some of the recorded earthquakes. The data recorded by RESECAN will also be integrated into the broadband seismic network operated by INVOLCAN (Red Sísmica Canaria, C7). RESECAN will be an instrument of scientific utility capable of contributing effectively to the volcano monitoring of the Canary Islands, reinforcing its resilience with respect to future volcanic emergencies.

How to cite: García-Hernández, R., Barrancos, J., D'Auria, L., Domínguez, V., Montalvo, A., and Pérez, N.: RESECAN: citizen-driven seismology on an active volcano (Cumbre Vieja, La Palma Island, Canaries), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5571, 2022.

EGU22-6970 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Analysis of individual learning outcomes of students and teachers in the citizen science project TeaTime4Schools 

Anna Wawra, Martin Scheuch, Bernhard Stürmer, and Taru Sanden

Only a few of the increasing number of citizen science projects set out to determine the projects impact on diverse learning outcomes of citizen scientists. However, besides pure completion of project activities and data collection, measurable benefits as individual learning outcomes (ILOs) (Phillips et al. 2014) should reward voluntary work.

Within the citizen science project „TeaTime4Schools“, Austrian students in the range of 13 to 18 years collected data as a group activity in a teacher guided school context; tea bags were buried into soil to investigate litter decomposition. In an online questionnaire a set of selected scales of ILOs (Phillips et al. 2014, Keleman-Finan et al. 2018, Wilde et al. 2009) were applied to test those ILOs of students who participated in TeaTime4Schools. Several indicators (scales for project-related response, interest in science, interest in soil, environmental activism, and self-efficacy) were specifically tailored from these evaluation frameworks to measure four main learning outcomes: interest, motivation, behavior, self-efficacy. In total, 106 valid replies of students were analyzed. In addition, 21 teachers who participated in TeaTime4Schools, answered a separate online questionnaire that directly asked about quality and liking of methods used in the project based on suggested scales about learning tasks of University College for Agricultural and Environmental Education (2015), which were modified for the purpose of this study. Findings of our research will be presented.

How to cite: Wawra, A., Scheuch, M., Stürmer, B., and Sanden, T.: Analysis of individual learning outcomes of students and teachers in the citizen science project TeaTime4Schools, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6970, 2022.

EGU22-7164 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Seismic and air monitoring observatory for greater Beirut : a citizen observatory of the "urban health" of Beirut 

Cecile Cornou, Laurent Drapeau, Youssef El Bakouny, Samer Lahoud, Alain Polikovitch, Chadi Abdallah, Charbel Abou Chakra, Charbel Afif, Ahmad Al Bitar, Stephane Cartier, Pascal Fanice, Johnny Fenianos, Bertrand Guillier, Carla Khater, and Gabriel Khoury and the SMOAG Team

Already sensitive because of its geology (seismic-tsunamic risk) and its interface between arid and temperate ecosystems, the Mediterranean Basin is being transformed by climate change and major urban pressure on resources and spaces. Lebanon concentrates on a small territory the environmental, climatic, health, social and political crises of the Middle East: shortages and degradation of surface and groundwater quality, air pollution, landscape fragmentation, destruction of ecosystems, erosion of biodiversity, telluric risks and very few mechanisms of information, prevention and protection against these vulnerabilities. Further, Lebanon is sorely lacking in environmental data at sufficient temporal and spatial scales to cover the range of key phenomena and to allow the integration of environmental issues for the country's development. This absence was sadly illustrated during the August 4th, 2020, explosion at the port of Beirut, which hindered the effective management of induced threats to protect the inhabitants. In this degraded context combined with a systemic crisis situation in Lebanon, frugal  innovation is more than an option, it is a necessity. Initiated in 2021 within the framework of the O-LIFE lebanese-french research consortium (www.o-life.org), the « Seismic and air monitoring observatory  for greater Beirut » (SMOAG) project aims at setting up a citizen observatory of the urban health of Beirut by deploying innovative, connected, low-cost, energy-efficient and robust environmental and seismological instruments. Through co-constructed web services and mobile applications with various stakeholders (citizens, NGOs, decision makers and scientists), the SMOAG citizen observatory will contribute to the information and mobilization of Lebanese citizens and managers by sharing the monitoring of key indicators associated with air quality, heat islands and building stability, essential issues for a sustainable Beirut.

The first phase of the project was dedicated to the development of a low-cost environmental sensor enabling pollution and urban weather measurements (particle matters, SO2, CO, O3, N02, solar radiation, wind speed, temperature, humidity, rainfall) and to the development of all the software infrastructure, from data acquisition to the synoptic indicators accessible via web and mobile application, while following the standards of the Sensor Web Enablement and Sensor Observation System of the OGC and to the FAIR principles (Easy to find, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable). A website and Android/IOS applications for the restitution of data and indicators and a dashboard allowing real time access to data have been developed. Environmental and low-cost seismological stations (Raspberry Shake) have been already deployed in Beirut, most of them hosted by Lebanese citizens. These instrumental and open data access efforts were completed by participatory workshops with various stakeholders  to improve the ergonomy of the web and application interfaces and to define roadmap for the implantation of future stations, consistently with  most vulnerable populations identified by NGOs and the current knowledge on the air pollution and heat islands in Beirut.

How to cite: Cornou, C., Drapeau, L., El Bakouny, Y., Lahoud, S., Polikovitch, A., Abdallah, C., Abou Chakra, C., Afif, C., Al Bitar, A., Cartier, S., Fanice, P., Fenianos, J., Guillier, B., Khater, C., and Khoury, G. and the SMOAG Team: Seismic and air monitoring observatory for greater Beirut : a citizen observatory of the "urban health" of Beirut, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7164, 2022.

EGU22-7323 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Citizen science for better water quality management in the Brantas catchment, Indonesia? Preliminary results 

Reza Pramana, Schuyler Houser, Daru Rini, and Maurits Ertsen

Water quality in the rivers and tributaries of the Brantas catchment (about 12.000 km2) is deteriorating due to various reasons, including rapid economic development, insufficient domestic water treatment and waste management, and industrial pollution. Various water quality parameters are at least measured on monthly basis by agencies involved in water resource development and management. However, measurements consistently demonstrate exceedance of the local water quality standards. Recent claims presented by the local Environmental Protection Agency indicate that the water quality is much more affected by the domestic sources compared to the others. In an attempt to examine this, we proposed a citizen science campaign by involving people from seven communities living close to the river, a network organisation that works on water quality monitoring, three government agencies, and students from a local university. Beginning in 2022, we kicked off our campaign by measuring with test strips for nitrate, nitrite, and phosphate on weekly basis at twelve different locations from upstream to downstream of the catchment. In the effort to provide education on water stewardship and empower citizens to participate in water quality management, preliminary results – the test strips, strategies, and challenges - will be shown.

How to cite: Pramana, R., Houser, S., Rini, D., and Ertsen, M.: Citizen science for better water quality management in the Brantas catchment, Indonesia? Preliminary results, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7323, 2022.

EGU22-7916 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Citizen science - an invaluable tool for obtaining high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological data 

Jadranka Sepic, Jure Vranic, Ivica Aviani, Drago Milanovic, and Miro Burazer

Available quality-checked institutional meteorological data is often not measured at locations of particular interest for observing specific small-scale and meso-scale atmospheric processes. Similarly, institutional data can be hard to obtain due to data policy restrictions. On the other hand, a lot of people are highly interested in meteorology, and they frequently deploy meteorological instruments at locations where they live. Such citizen data are often shared through public data repositories and websites with sophisticated visualization routines.  As a result, the networks of citizen meteorological stations are, in numerous areas, denser and more easily accessible than are the institutional meteorological networks.  

Several examples of publicly available citizen meteorological networks, including school networks, are explored – and their application to published high-quality scientific papers is discussed. It is shown that for the data-based analysis of specific atmospheric processes of interest, such as mesoscale convective disturbances and mesoscale atmospheric gravity waves, the best qualitative and quantitative results are often obtained using densely populated citizen networks.  

Finally, a “cheap and easy to do” project of constructing a meteorological station with a variable number of atmospheric sensors is presented. Suggestions on how to use such stations in educational and citizen science activities, and even in real-time warning systems, are given.  

How to cite: Sepic, J., Vranic, J., Aviani, I., Milanovic, D., and Burazer, M.: Citizen science - an invaluable tool for obtaining high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7916, 2022.

Among the greatest constraints to accurately monitoring and understanding climate and climate change in many locations is limited in situ observing capacity and resolution in these places. Climate behaviours along with dependent environmental and societal processes are frequently highly localized, while observing systems in the region may be separated by hundreds of kilometers and may not adequately represent conditions between them. Similarly, generating climate equity in urban regions can be hindered by an inability to resolve urban heat islands at neighborhood scales. In both cases, higher density observations are necessary for accurate condition monitoring, research, and for the calibration and validation of remote sensing products and predictive models. Coincidentally, urban neighborhoods are heavily populated and thousands of individuals visit remote locations each day for recreational purposes. Many of these individuals are concerned about climate change and are keen to contribute to climate solutions. However, there are several challenges to creating a voluntary citizen science climate observing program that addresses these opportunities. The first is that such a program has the potential for limited uptake if participants are required to volunteer their time or incur a significant cost to participate. The second is that researchers and decision-makers may be reluctant to use the collected data owing to concern over observer bias. This paper describes the on-going development and implementation by 2DegreesC.org of a technology-driven citizen science approach in which participants are equipped with low-cost automated sensors that systematically sample and communicate scientifically valid climate observations while they focus on other activities (e.g., recreation, gardening, fitness). Observations are acquired by a cloud-based system that quality controls, anonymizes, and makes them openly available. Simultaneously, individuals of all backgrounds who share a love of the outdoors become engaged in the scientific process via data-driven communication, research, and educational interactions. Because costs and training are minimized as barriers to participation, data collection is opportunistic, and the technology can be used almost anywhere, this approach is dynamically scalable with the potential for millions of participants to collect billions of new, accurate observations that integrate with and enhance existing observational network capacity.

How to cite: Shein, K.: Linking citizen scientists with technology to reduce climate data gaps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10634, 2022.

The 2019-2020 bushfire season (the Black Summer) in Australia was unprecedented in its breadth and severity as well as the disrupted resources and time dedicated to studying it.  Right after one of the most extreme fire seasons on record had hit Australia, a once-in-a-century global pandemic, COVID-19, occurred. This pandemic caused world-wide lockdowns throughout 2020 and 2021 that prevented travel and field work, thus hindering researchers from assessing damage done by the Black Summer bushfires. Early assessments show that the bushfires on Kangaroo Island, South Australia caused declines in soil nutrients and ground coverage up to 10 months post-fire, indicating higher risk of soil erosion and fire-induced land degradation at this location. In parallel to the direct impacts the Black Summer bushfires had on native vegetation and soil, the New South Wales Nature Conservation Council observed a noticeable increase in demand for fire management workshops in 2020. What was observed of fires and post-fire outcomes on soil and vegetation from the 2019-2020 bushfire season that drove so many citizens into action? In collaboration with the New South Wales Nature Conservation Council and Rural Fire Service through the Hotspots Fire Project, we will be surveying and interviewing landowners across New South Wales to collect their observations and insights regarding the Black Summer. By engaging landowners, this project aims to answer the following: within New South Wales, Australia, what impact did the 2019-2020 fire season have on a) soil health and native vegetation and b) human behaviours and perceptions of fire in the Australian landscape. The quantity of insights gained from NSW citizens will provide a broad assessment of fire impacts across multiple soil and ecosystem types, providing knowledge of the impacts of severe fires, such as those that occurred during the Black Summer, to the scientific community. Furthermore, with knowledge gained from reflections from citizens, the Hotspots Fire Project will be better able to train and support workshop participants, while expanding the coverage of workshops to improve support of landowners across the state. Data regarding fire impacts on soil, ecosystems, and communities has been collected by unknowing citizen scientists all across New South Wales, and to gain access to that data, we need only ask.

How to cite: Ondik, M., Ooi, M., and Muñoz-Rojas, M.: Insights from landowners on Australia's Black Summer bushfires: impacts on soil and vegetation, perceptions, and behaviours, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10776, 2022.

High air pollution concentration levels and increased urban heat island intensity, are amongst the most critical contemporary urban health concerns. This is the reason why various municipalities are starting to invest in extensive direct air quality and microclimate sensing networks. Through the study of these datasets it has become evident that the understanding of inter-urban environmental gradients is imperative to effectively introduce urban land-use strategies to improve the environmental conditions in the neighborhoods that suffer the most, and develop city-scale urban planning solutions for a better urban health.  However, given economic limitations or divergent political views, extensive direct sensing environmental networks have yet not been implemented in most cities. While the validity of citizen science environmental datasets is often questioned given that they rely on low-cost sensing technologies and fail to incorporate sensor calibration protocols, they can offer an alternative to municipal sensing networks if the necessary Quality Assurance / Quality Control (QA/QC) protocols are put in place.

This research has focused on the development of a QA/QC protocol for the study of urban environmental data collected by the citizen science PurpleAir initiative implemented in the Bay Area and the city of Los Angeles where over 700 purple air stations have been implemented in the last years. Following the QA/QC process the PurpleAir data was studied in combination with remote sensing datasets on land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index, and geospatial datasets on socio-demographic and urban fabric parameters. Through a footprint-based study, and for all PurpleAir station locations, the featured variables and the buffer sizes with higher correlations have been identified to compute the inter-urban environmental gradient predictions making use of 3 supervised machine learning models: - Regression Tree Ensemble, Support Vector Machine, and a Gaussian Process Regression.

How to cite: Llaguno-Munitxa, M., Bou-Zeid, E., Rueda, P., and Shu, X.: Citizen-science urban environmental monitoring for the development of an inter-urban environmental prediction model for the city of Los Angeles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11765, 2022.

EGU22-11797 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Attitudes towards a cafetiere-style filter system and paper-based analysis pad for soil nutrition surveillance in-situ: evidence from Kenya and Vietnam 

Samantha Richardson, Philip Kamau, Katie J Parsons, Florence Halstead, Ibrahim Ndirangu, Vo Quang Minh, Van Pham Dang Tri, Hue Le, Nicole Pamme, and Jesse Gitaka

Routine monitoring of soil chemistry is needed for effective crop management since a poor understanding of nutrient levels affects crop yields and ultimately farmers’ livelihoods.1 In low- and middle-income countries soil sampling is usually limited, due to required access to analytical services and high costs of portable sampling equipment.2 We are developing portable and low-cost sampling and analysis tools which would enable farmers to test their own land and make informed decisions around the need for fertilizers. In this study we aimed to understand attitudes of key stakeholders towards this technology and towards collecting the data gathered on public databases which could inform decisions at government level to better manage agriculture across a country.

 

In Kenya, we surveyed 549 stakeholders from Murang’a and Kiambu counties, 77% men and 23% women. 17.2% of these respondent smallholder farmers were youthful farmers aged 18-35 years with 81.9% male and 18.1% female-headed farming enterprises. The survey covered current knowledge of soil nutrition, existing soil management practices, desire to sample soil in the future, attitudes towards our developed prototypes, motivation towards democratization of soil data, and willingness to pay for the technology. In Vietnam a smaller mixed methods online survey was distributed via national farming unions to 27 stakeholders, in particular engaging younger farmers with an interest in technology and innovation.

Within the Kenya cohort, only 1.5% of farmers currently test for nutrients and pH. Reasons given for not testing included a lack of knowledge about soil testing (35%), distance to testing centers (34%) and high costs (16%). However, 97% of respondents were interested in soil sampling at least once a year, particularly monitoring nitrates and phosphates. Nearly all participants, 94-99% among the males/females/youths found cost of repeated analysis of soil samples costing around USD 11-12 as affordable for their business. Regarding sharing the collecting data, 88% believed this would be beneficial, for example citing that data shared with intervention agencies and agricultural officers could help them receive relevant advice.

In Vietnam, 87% of famers did not have their soil nutrient levels tested with 62% saying they did not know how and 28% indicating prohibitive costs. Most currently relied on local knowledge and observations to improve their soil quality. 87% thought that the system we were proposing was affordable with only 6% saying they would not be interested in trialing this new technology. Regarding the soil data, respondents felt that it should be open access and available to everyone.

Our surveys confirmed the need and perceived benefit for our proposed simple-to-operate and cost-effective workflow, which would enable farmers to test soil chemistry themselves on their own land. Farmers were also found to be motivated towards sharing their soil data to get advice from government agencies. The survey results will inform our further development of low-cost, portable analytical tools for simple on-site measurements of nutrient levels within soil.

 

1. Dimkpa, C., et al., Sustainable Agriculture Reviews, 2017, 25, 1-43.

2. Zingore, S., et al., Better Crops, 2015, 99 (1), 24-26.

How to cite: Richardson, S., Kamau, P., Parsons, K. J., Halstead, F., Ndirangu, I., Minh, V. Q., Tri, V. P. D., Le, H., Pamme, N., and Gitaka, J.: Attitudes towards a cafetiere-style filter system and paper-based analysis pad for soil nutrition surveillance in-situ: evidence from Kenya and Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11797, 2022.

Keywords: preconcentration, heavy metal, cafetiere, citizen science, paper-based microfluidics

Heavy-metal analysis of water samples using microfluidics paper-based analytical devices (µPAD) with colourimetric readout is of great interest due to its simplicity, affordability and potential for Citizen Science-based data collection [1]. However, this approach is limited by the relatively poor sensitivity of the colourimetric substrates, typically achieving detection within the mg L-1 range, whereas heavy-metals exist in the environment at <μg L-1 quantities   [2]. Preconcentration is commonly used when analyte concentration is below the analytical range, but this typically requires laboratory equipment and expert users [3]. Here, we are developing a simple method for pre-concentration of heavy metals, to be integrated with a µPAD workflow that would allow Citizen Scientists to carry out pre-concentration as well as readout on-site.

The filter mesh from an off-the-shelf cafetière (350 mL) was replaced with a custom-made bead carrier basket, laser cut in PMMA sheet featuring >500 evenly spread 100 µm diameter holes. This allowed the water sample to pass through the basket and mix efficiently with the 2.6 g ion-exchange resin beads housed within (Lewatit® TP207, Ambersep® M4195, Lewatit® MonoPlus SP 112). An aqueous Ni2+ sample (0.3 mg L-1, 300 mL) was placed in the cafetiere and the basket containing ion exchange material was moved up and down for 5 min to allow Ni2+ adsorption onto the resin. Initial investigations into elution with a safe, non-toxic eluent focused on using NaCl (5 M). These were carried out by placing the elution solution into a shallow dish and into which the the resin containing carrier basket was submerging. UV/vis spectroscopy via a colourimetric reaction with nioxime was used to monitor Ni2+ absorption and elution.

After 5 min of mixing it was found that Lewatit® TP207 and Ambersep® M4195 resins adsorbed up to 90% of the Ni2+ ions present in solution and the Lewatit® MonoPlus SP 112 adsorbed up to 60%. However, the Lewatit® MonoPlus SP 112 resin performed better for elution with NaCl. Initial studies showed up to 30% of the Ni2+ was eluted within only 1 min of mixing with 10 mL 5 M NaCl.

Using a cafetière as pre-concentration vessel coupled with non-hazardous reagents in the pre-concentration process allows involvement of citizen scientists in more advanced environmental monitoring activities that cannot be achieved with a simple paper-based sensor alone. Future work will investigate the user-friendliness of the design by trialling the system with volunteers and will aim to further improve the trapping and elution efficiencies.

 

References:

  • Almeida, M., et al., Talanta, 2018, 177, 176-190.
  • Lace, A., J. Cleary, Chemosens., 2021. 9, 60.
  • Alahmad, W., et al.. Biosens. Bioelectron., 2021. 194, 113574.

 

How to cite: Sari, M., Richardson, S., Mayes, W., Lorch, M., and Pamme, N.: Method development for on-site freshwater analysis with pre-concentration of nickel via ion-exchange resins embedded in a cafetière system and paper-based analytical devices for readout, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11892, 2022.

EGU22-12972 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2 | Highlight

Collection of valuable polar data and increase in nature awareness among travellers by using Expedition Cruise Ships as platforms of opportunity 

Verena Meraldi, Tudor Morgan, Amanda Lynnes, and Ylva Grams

Hurtigruten Expeditions, a member of the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO) and the Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators (AECO) has been visiting the fragile polar environments for two decades, witnessing the effects of climate change. Tourism and the number of ships in the polar regions has grown significantly. As a stakeholder aware of the need for long-term protection of these regions, we promote safe and environmentally responsible operations, invest in the understanding and conservation of the areas we visit, and focus on the enrichment of our guests.

For the last couple of years, we have supported the scientific community by transporting researchers and their equipment to and from their study areas in polar regions and we have established collaborations with numerous scientific institutions. In parallel we developed our science program with the goal of educating our guests about the natural environments they are in, as well as to further support the scientific community by providing our ships as platforms of opportunity for spatial and temporal data collection. Participation in Citizen Science programs that complement our lecture program provides an additional education opportunity for guests to better understand the challenges the visited environment faces while contributing to filling scientific knowledge gaps in remote areas and providing data for evidence-based decision making.

We aim to continue working alongside the scientific community and developing partnerships. We believe that scientific research and monitoring in the Arctic and Antarctic can hugely benefit from the reoccurring presence of our vessels in these areas, as shown by the many projects we have supported so far. In addition, our partnership with the Polar Citizen Science Collective, a charity that facilitates interaction between scientists running Citizen Science projects and expedition tour operators, will allow the development of programs on an industry level, rather than just an operator level, increasing the availability and choice of platforms of opportunity for the scientific community.

How to cite: Meraldi, V., Morgan, T., Lynnes, A., and Grams, Y.: Collection of valuable polar data and increase in nature awareness among travellers by using Expedition Cruise Ships as platforms of opportunity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12972, 2022.

EGU22-13115 | Presentations | ITS3.1/SSS1.2

Participatory rainfall monitoring: strengthening hydrometeorological risk management and community resilience in Peru 

Miguel Arestegui, Miluska Ordoñez, Abel Cisneros, Giorgio Madueño, Cinthia Almeida, Vannia Aliaga, Nelson Quispe, Carlos Millán, Waldo Lavado, Samuel Huaman, and Jeremy Phillips

Heavy rainfall, floods and debris flow on the Rimac river watershed are recurring events that impact Peruvian people in vulnerable situations.There are few historical records, in terms of hydrometeorological variables, with sufficient temporal and spatial accuracy. As a result, Early Warning Systems (EWS) efficiency, dealing with these hazards, is critically limited.

In order to tackle this challenge, among other objectives, the Participatory Monitoring Network (Red de Monitoreo Participativo or Red MoP, in spanish) was formed: an alternative monitoring system supported by voluntary community collaboration of local population under a citizen science approach. This network collects and communicates data captured with standardized manual rain gauges (< 3USD). So far, it covers districts in the east metropolitan area of the capital city of Lima, on dense peri-urban areas, districts on the upper Rimac watershed on rural towns, and expanding to other upper watersheds as well.

Initially led by Practical Action as part of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance, it is now also supported by SENAMHI (National Meteorological and Hydrological Service) and INICTEL-UNI (National Telecommunications Research and Training Institute), as an activity of the National EWS Network (RNAT).

For the 2019-2022 rainfall seasons, the network has been gathering data and information from around 80 volunteers located throughout the Rimac and Chillon river watersheds (community members, local governments officers, among others): precipitation, other meteorological variables, and information regarding the occurrence of events such as floods and debris flow (locally known as huaycos). SENAMHI has provided a focalized 24h forecast for the area covered by the volunteers, experimentally combines official stations data with the network’s for spatial analysis of rainfall, and, with researchers from the University of Bristol, analyses potential uses of events gathered through this network. In order to facilitate and automatize certain processes, INICTEL-UNI developed a web-platform and a mobile application that is being piloted.

We present an analysis of events and trends gathered through this initiative (such as a debris flow occurred in 2019). Specifically, hotspots and potential uses of this sort of refined spatialized rainfall information in the dry & tropical Andes. As well, we present a qualitative analysis of volunteers’ expectations and perceptions. Finally, we also present a meteorological explanation of selected events, supporting the importance of measuring localized precipitation during the occurrence of extreme events in similar complex, physical and social contexts.

How to cite: Arestegui, M., Ordoñez, M., Cisneros, A., Madueño, G., Almeida, C., Aliaga, V., Quispe, N., Millán, C., Lavado, W., Huaman, S., and Phillips, J.: Participatory rainfall monitoring: strengthening hydrometeorological risk management and community resilience in Peru, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13115, 2022.

To achieve the ambitious but necessary climate targets set by the Paris Agreement, the IPCC model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels make apparent the need for safeguarding and enhancing the natural global carbon sink – including via carbon dioxide removal (CDR). A range of ocean-based CDR approaches, also termed “negative emissions technologies” (NETs), has been proposed to make use of the ocean’s potential to take up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in water, biomass, and sediments. The governance framework in place to regulate CDR in the ocean, at this time, is limited to the direct and articulate regulation of ocean fertilization. Meanwhile, other NETs such as ocean alkalinity enhancement and artificial upwelling emerge, but a comprehensive and foresight-oriented regulation for the testing or even deploying at larger scale is missing. Specifically, there is large uncertainty on unintended (positive and negative) effects of these technologies on the condition of the ocean, in addition to enhanced carbon uptake and storage, and how these may impede on or support other global sustainability goals. The deployment of NETs in the ocean poses additional governance complexities relating to unknowns, uncertainties, and transboundary issues. In a study that is part of the EU H2020-project OceanNETs, we explore to what extent the current global governance framework directly or indirectly regulates emerging ocean-based NETs and reflect on the particularities and requirements for their comprehensive governance. The analysis considers the gaps, challenges, needs, and opportunities for comprehensive governance of ocean-based NETs. 

How to cite: Neumann, B. and Röschel, L.: Global governance of ocean-based negative emission technologies. Exploring gaps, challenges, and opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-893, 2022.

EGU22-1956 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

The implementation of ecological engineering in Tibet has strengthened the local human-policy-resource connection 

Yijia Wang, Yanxu Liu, Xutong Wu, Xinsheng Wang, Ying Yao, and Bojie Fu

Facing the dual threats of climate and socio-economic changes, how the social-ecological systems (SES) in the Tibet Autonomous Region can seize the opportunity of ecological restoration to enhance the quality of the environment while improving the relationship between human and nature is of great significance to promote the regional sustainable development. Thus, regarding human as the key component, we used Ostrom’s SES framework as an analytical fundation to analyze the impact of the implementation of ecological engineering on local human-policy-resource connection. We distributed questionnaires for local residents, distinguished experimental groups (EG, n=325) and control groups (CG,n =165), and used a network approach to construct indicators for assessing effectiveness of ecological engineering, including overall connectivity and evenness. Meanwhile, random forest regression was used to explore the background variables of the dominant connection and accordingly proposed subsequent directions for optimal governance. We found that interviewees in areas where ecological engineering was implemented had more positive perceptions of the importance of ecosystem services, the relationship between ecological conservation and well-being, attitudes toward ecological engineering, and the impact of measures. The overall connectivity and evenness of EG were significantly higher than that of CG. The implementation of ecological engineering enhanced the connection between local people and the environment, but caused some inconvenience to local residents’ livelihoods. Besides, elevation and annual precipitation were the background variables that dominated the overall connectivity. The overall connectivity was lower in alpine steppes with elevation of around 4000 m and semi-arid areas with annual precipitation around 400-500 mm. The implementation of ecological engineering played a positive role in alleviating human-nature relationship in tensions and promoting collective governance of common pool resources, but the governance process still involved risks. Safeguarding and improving the residents’ livelihoods and enhancing the regional weak SES coupling due to geographical constraints are the future directions for optimal governance.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Liu, Y., Wu, X., Wang, X., Yao, Y., and Fu, B.: The implementation of ecological engineering in Tibet has strengthened the local human-policy-resource connection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1956, 2022.

EGU22-1978 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Mapping NBS stakeholders’ perspective over Sludge Treatment Reed Bed (STRB) in Iceland 

Amir Gholipour, Elizabeth Duarte, Rita Fragoso, Ana Galvao, and David Christian Finger

Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) like Sludge Treatment Reed Beds (STRBs) can address resource recovery from sewage sludge in urban and rural areas to boost circular economy and to mitigate climate change. To ensure successful implementation of STRBs, an evaluation of stakeholders’ perceptions can be helpful to identify relevant barriers and opportunities. In this study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with relevant stakeholders, which were categorized in 5 interest groups including academics, state and governments, NGOs, water companies and local communities across Iceland. The interviews were then transcribed and effective elements influencing STRB technology in Iceland were identified through an open-coded method on the transcriptions. The elements were categorized as independent elements (NBS actors, on-going projects, feasibility, legal, economic, sociological, and natural criteria), which were grouped into 7 classifications impacting dependent elements (relevant aspects of STRB, STRB services and system cost). Through Causal Diagrams (CDs), the impact of the independent elements was visualized on the dependent elements. The result of the study is exposed in 8 causal networks and 4 aggregated CDs for sustainability, climate change, biodiversity and circular economy together with mediators interpreting the impacts. The complexity of multi-sequenced causalities of a heterogeneous nature is depicted in CDs implying by stakeholders’ reports and expectations. The study exposes information on the compatible aspects, where further research is required to facilitate the use of STRB for the resource recovery of sewage sludge in Iceland. Therefore, our findings can enable decision makers with intracommunity information to identify elements impacting STRB application, in which the influence of the multiple groups of interests is regarded. 

 

Keywords: Nature-Based Solutions; Sludge Treatment Reed Beds, Resource Recovery, Causal Diagram, climate change, circular economy, sustainability

How to cite: Gholipour, A., Duarte, E., Fragoso, R., Galvao, A., and Christian Finger, D.: Mapping NBS stakeholders’ perspective over Sludge Treatment Reed Bed (STRB) in Iceland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1978, 2022.

EGU22-4699 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Assessing global macroalgal carbon dioxide removal potential using a high-resolution ocean biogeochemistry model 

Manon Berger, Laurent Bopp, David T. Ho, and Lester Kwiatkowski

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has become part of the portfolio of solutions to mitigate climate change. In combination with emission reductions, CDR may be critical to achieving the goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C, as outlined in the Paris Agreement. Due to its potential high productivity and environmental co-benefits, macroalgae cultivation has recently become a prominent ocean-based CDR strategy. However, estimates of the CDR potential of large-scale deployment are highly limited. Here we simulate idealized global deployment of macroalgae-based CDR using the NEMO-PISCESv2 ocean biogeochemical model at high spatial resolution (0.25° nominal horizontal resolution). Macroalgae growth is confined to the upper 100m of the water column in Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) free of sea ice and with an appropriate nitrate/phosphate regime. Although the loss of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) through macroalgal growth enhances the flux of atmospheric carbon into the ocean, this increase in carbon uptake is less than the rate of macroalgal production. In the absence of any nutrient limitation on growth, the enhancement in ocean carbon uptake is only 73-77% of the carbon lost from the water column due to macroalgal production. However, when macroalgae nutrient limitation/uptake is additionally accounted for, the increase in ocean carbon uptake accounts for only 41-42% of the potential carbon lost through macroalgae production. These inefficiencies are due to ocean transport replacing part of the DIC lost in the upper water column with DIC from depth, the influence of local nutrient concentrations on the vertical profile of macroalgal production, and feedbacks on the nutrient resources available for phytoplankton net primary production. CDR efficiency is shown to scale near-linearly between scenarios assuming 1% to 10% of the global EEZ area is cultivated for macroalgae. The efficiency of macroalgal CDR shows significant regional variability, with much of the enhancement in ocean carbon uptake (43%-46%) occurring outside EEZs, posing potential difficulties to national scale accounting.

How to cite: Berger, M., Bopp, L., Ho, D. T., and Kwiatkowski, L.: Assessing global macroalgal carbon dioxide removal potential using a high-resolution ocean biogeochemistry model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4699, 2022.

EGU22-5175 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10 | Highlight

Completing Urban GHG Emissions Data to Assess the Effectiveness of Climate Action Plans in Europe 

Jessica Page, Haozhi Pan, and Zahra Kalantari

Urban areas are major contributors to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To address climate change, many cities have developed climate action plans (CAPs) as strategic roadmaps to reduce their emissions and strive for emission neutrality and climate resilience by 2050 or before. It has been more than a decade since the first of these plans were put in place, and it is now important to evaluate these plans and to access whether city-level climate ambitions will be realised or perhaps need adjustment to pursue for improvements in climate resilience over time

 This work aims to further our understanding of urban GHG emissions, by completing existing urban carbon emissions data with blue-green contributions to the urban carbon cycle. In a previous study, it was found that the inclusion of blue-green emissions in urban carbon accounting in Stockholm, Sweden had a significant impact on that region’s ability to reach net zero emissions in the coming decades (Page et al., 2021). In this study, we complete the urban emissions data for cities across the European Union (EU) in order to assess if, and for which types of cities, the inclusion of blue-green emissions in the GHG accounting is similarly relevant.

Furthermore, we will use data about the CAPs produced and implemented by these cities together with the completed GHG emissions in order to assess whether the actions and plans made by many European cities have actually had any impact on the emissions from these cities. The inclusion of blue-green emissions and sequestrations in this assessment is particularly important, as many of the strategies included in CAPs impact blue-green areas, such as the implementation of nature-based solutions (NBS).

Conclusions will be drawn about the role of green-blue areas in urban GHG emissions, the role which CAPs have played in reducing emissions in European cities, and how and where these could potentially be adapted to further reduce future GHG emissions in urban areas.

Keywords: Sustainable cities; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Nature-based Solutions; Climate Action Plans

References:

Page J, Kåresdotter E, Destouni G, et al. (2021) A more complete accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in urban landscapes. Anthropocene 34: 100296. DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2021.100296.

How to cite: Page, J., Pan, H., and Kalantari, Z.: Completing Urban GHG Emissions Data to Assess the Effectiveness of Climate Action Plans in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5175, 2022.

EGU22-6126 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Investigating potential climatic side-effects of a large-scale deployment of photoelectrochemical devices for carbon dioxide removal 

Moritz Adam, Thomas Kleinen, Matthias M. May, Daniel Lörch, Arya Samanta, and Kira Rehfeld

Without substantial decarbonization of the global economy, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are projected to lead to severe impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods. Integrated assessments of economy and climate therefore favour large-scale CO2 removal to reach ambitious temperature-stabilization targets. However, most of the proposed approaches to artificially remove CO2 from the atmosphere are in conflict with planetary boundaries due to land-use needs and they may come with unintended climatic side-effects. Long-term draw-down of CO2 by photoelectrochemical (PEC) reduction is a recent and promising approach that potentially entails a very low water footprint and could offer a variety of carbon sink products for safe geological storage. For renewable hydrogen fuel production, PEC devices have already been demonstrated to deliver high solar-to-fuel efficiencies. If such devices are adjusted to deliver high solar-to-carbon efficiencies for carbon dioxide removal, they would require comparably little land for achieving annual sequestration rates that are compatible with limiting global warming to 2°C or below. Yet, no production-scale prototype exists and the climatic side-effects of such an "artificial photosynthesis'' approach for negative emissions are unknown. Here, we discuss our work towards investigating potential impacts of PEC CO2 removal on the climate and the carbon cycle in simulations with the comprehensive Earth System Model MPI-ESM. We designed a scheme to represent hypothetical PEC devices as a land surface type which is influencing land-atmosphere energy and moisture fluxes. We parameterize the irradiation-driven carbon sequestration of the devices and interactively couple their deployment area and location to a negative emission target. We plan to compare the potential side-effects between scenarios of dense, localized deployment and spread-out, decentralized application. These scenarios represent different guiding objectives for deploying hypothetical PEC systems such as maximizing the insolation per module area, or mitigating the overall impacts on climate and on carbon stocks. For the different scenarios, we intend to investigate changes in the surface balances, which could impact atmospheric circulations patterns. We further plan to quantify the amount of land-stored carbon that is relocated due to land-use change, as this affects the amount of CO2 that can effectively be withdrawn from the atmosphere. Finally, we relate theoretical expectations for area requirements and CO2 withdrawal with results from the coupled simulations which could inform the technological development. While ambitious emission reductions remain the only appropriate measure for stabilizing anthropogenic warming, our work could advance the understanding of possible benefits and side-effects of hypothetical PEC CO2 removal.

M. M. May & K. Rehfeld, ESD Ideas: Photoelectrochemical carbon removal as negative emission technology. Earth Syst. Dynam. 10, 1–7 (2019).

How to cite: Adam, M., Kleinen, T., May, M. M., Lörch, D., Samanta, A., and Rehfeld, K.: Investigating potential climatic side-effects of a large-scale deployment of photoelectrochemical devices for carbon dioxide removal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6126, 2022.

EGU22-7019 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Forecasting impacts of climate change on plantation carbon sink capability 

Hung-En Li and Su-Ting Cheng

In the face of climate change, the government of Taiwan requires new mitigation policies and implementation strategies. As forest plantations are commonly accepted as great carbon sinks, developing reliable carbon systems linking forestry carbon sequestration into green carbon credits in the economic sector requires synergic integration to examine potential carbon sink capability of forest plantations under the ever-changing climate. In this regard, this study developed a process-based stand growth model based on the structure of the Physiological Principles for Predicting Growth (3-PG) for carbon sequestration estimations of Sugi plantations in the National Taiwan University (NTU) Experimental Forest. The model considered monthly solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to simulate dynamic biomass production, and then allocated the simulated biomass to root, stem, and foliage by allometric equations fitted to biomass data from the SugiHinoki Database. After that, the mortality of stand was determined by using a zero-inflated Poisson modelling on long-term growth data collected by the NTU Experimental Forest during 1921-2019. In addition, we performed a scenario analysis to forecast future stand growth under 4 climate scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. Results revealed higher annual biomass increment (around 4 t ha-1y-1) in the end of the century in RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and lower increment (around 2.5 t ha-1y-1) in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. A step-wise multiple linear regression analysis on the simulated growth data and climatic inputs revealed stronger positive impact of CO2 concentration than precipitation on unit biomass primary production (NPP/Biomass). Temperature had comparable counter impact against precipitation, and solar radiation showed the least negative influence on unit biomass primary production. Based on this process-based stand growth model, we are able to dig into the relation between climatic variables and carbon sequestration rate, and help sketch prospect of plantations in the carbon market for plantation managers, investors, and policy makers.

How to cite: Li, H.-E. and Cheng, S.-T.: Forecasting impacts of climate change on plantation carbon sink capability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7019, 2022.

EGU22-7324 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Assessing co-benefits of urban greening coupled with rainwater harvesting management under current and future climates across USA cities 

Ziyan Zhang, Athanasios Paschalis, Ana Mijic, Barnaby Dobson, and Adrian Butler

Globally, urban areas will face multiple water-related challenges in the near future. The main challenges are intensified droughts leading to water scarcity, increased flood risk due to extreme rainfall intensification, increased total water demand due to an increasing urban population, amplified urban heat island intensities due to urban sprawl, and reduction in urban carbon sink due to plant water stress. Urban greening is an excellent option for mitigating flood risk and excess urban heat. Meanwhile, rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems can cope with water supply needs and urban water management. In this study, we investigated how urban greening and RWH can work together to mitigate the aforementioned risks. We evaluate the joined-up management approach under climate projections for 30 cities in the USA spanning a variety of climates, population densities and urban landscapes. By incorporating a new RWH module in the urban ecohydrological model UT&C and flexible operational rules of reusing harvested water for domestic use and urban green space irrigation, we tested 4 intervention approaches: control, RWH installation, urban greening supported by RWH, and urban greening supported by traditional irrigation (i.e., supplying via mains water). Each intervention approach was evaluated using our adapted version of UT&C and forced by the last generation convection-permitting model simulations of current (2001-2011) and end-of-century (RCP8.5) climate from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The volume of RWH is assumed to be 2000L per household for all cities. Results showed that neither urban greening nor RWH could contribute significantly to reducing the expected increase in canyon temperature, because of the strong change in background climate (i.e., increases in average atmospheric temperature). However, RWH alone can sufficiently reduce the intensifying surface flood risk and effectively enhance water conservation, and urban greening can significantly increase the carbon sink of cities especially in dry regions, and if supported by traditional irrigation. Those results vary with the background climate: the benefits of urban greening, either supported by RWH or traditional irrigation, on canyon temperature reduction and carbon sink improvement increased with average air temperature and decreased with wetness index respectively; the benefits of RWH on runoff reduction and water conservation are both positively dependent on local annual precipitation.

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Paschalis, A., Mijic, A., Dobson, B., and Butler, A.: Assessing co-benefits of urban greening coupled with rainwater harvesting management under current and future climates across USA cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7324, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7324, 2022.

Multiple disaster risks are interconnected and are commonly caused by ecosystem degradation. Ecosystem degradation also drives many of the world's major problems, including biodiversity loss, climate change, and poverty. Ecosystem-based solutions such as ecosystem-based adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and community forestry are increasingly implemented in various contexts. However, little is known about possible interlinkages, synergies, and trade-offs among those ecosystem-based responses and potential barriers to their integration. This study explores spatial and conceptual synergies and trade-offs among ecosystem-based adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and community forestry and the barriers to implementing integrated actions.

The study was located in Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar. The research first used a comprehensive socio-ecological risk assessment framework and multi-risk impact chains to understand high-risk areas and identify potential areas for ecosystem-based adaptation. Potential areas for biodiversity conservation and community forestry respectively were then identified using criteria developed based on a literature review. At this point, spatial autocorrelations were tested, and a modified t-test was used to identify spatial relationships among them. Finally, qualitative expert interviews were conducted, and content analysis was used to understand conceptual synergies, trade-offs, and potential barriers for integrated action.

Results show potential for both social and ecological synergies. Ecosystem-based adaptation and biodiversity conservation show synergies with community forestry in the areas of local governance, and the relevance of social factors such as multi-stakeholder awareness, indigenous knowledge, land tenure security, community rule-making and ownership, and biodiversity-friendly livelihoods. Synergies between ecosystem-based adaptation and biodiversity conservation are mostly related to ecological factors such as benefits for biodiversity, ecosystem health, and corridor and buffer functions. Moreover, significant spatial synergies were observed between community forestry and biodiversity conservation areas.

Despite synergies, trade-offs exist and are mainly linked to social inequalities and the use of biodiversity-damaging practices. Spatial trade-offs occur between ecosystem-based adaptation and community forestry due to a lack of land tenure security in high-risk townships. Conceptual trade-offs between ecosystem-based adaptation and community forestry are mainly linked to inequality, lack of access, local power relations, and land tenure insecurity. Trade-offs between biodiversity and the other two are observed due to the use of monocultures, exotic species, and clear-cutting practices. Legal, social, and financial barriers have been identified for the implementation of synergetic actions, while proper facilitation, community rule-making, and biodiversity-friendly livelihoods are key enabling factors in achieving sustainable ecosystem restoration.

This research argues that ecosystem-based adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and community forestry benefit each other, highlighting that fostering those synergies is key for ecosystem restoration and conservation in the face of climate change, biodiversity loss, and poverty. Furthermore, the research stresses the need to consider community governance and biodiversity aspects in ecosystem-based adaptation to address societal challenges.

How to cite: Wuit Yee Kyaw, H. and Sebesvari, Z.: Assessment of synergies and trade-offs among ecosystem-based adaptation, biodiversity conservation and community forestry in Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7415, 2022.

EGU22-7797 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Governance and science implications of low environmental impact outdoors solar radiation management experiments 

Gideon Futerman, Martin Janssens, Iris de Vries, John Dykema, Andy Parker, and Hugh Hunt

There are many uncertainties surrounding solar radiation management (SRM), which cannot all be quantified and reduced using models, laboratory experiments or observations of natural analogs such as volcanic eruptions, ship tracks, or dust storms. While there is broad consensus both in- and outside the scientific community that better understanding of the climate system is beneficial to policy makers and society, the value of improved knowledge of SRM has been highly controversial. Yet, it is evident that SRM research can contribute to quantifying and reducing important uncertainties pertaining to fundamental knowledge on the workings of the Earth system, while also providing essential specific knowledge on positive and negative impacts of SRM to inform future decisions.

In 2016, a group of SRM experts gathered at the Institute for advanced sustainability studies in Potsdam for a workshop to formulate a set of low environmental impact SRM experiment proposals. We present these as a non-exhaustive set of possible experiments with no measurable environmental side effects that could provide valuable information that cannot be obtained from models or lab experiments. Both perturbative and non-perturbative experiments are proposed for different SRM methods including marine cloud brightening, stratospheric aerosol injection and cirrus cloud thinning.

It was found that in the time period between 2016 and now several of the research questions addressed in the experiment proposals have been answered by unrelated experimental environmental science studies, whereas no experimental studies have been carried out in the context of SRM. This finding shows that there is significant overlap in high priority research questions and outcomes of non-SRM and SRM environmental research. In addition, it shows that non-controversial environmental science experiments can provide similar SRM-relevant knowledge as dedicated SRM-experiments. Given that one of the main arguments against SRM research is the potential danger of the acquired knowledge, the finding that obtained knowledge of non-SRM and SRM experiments can be similar raises the question which effect the declared relationship to SRM on outdoors research proposal review and regulation should be.

How to cite: Futerman, G., Janssens, M., de Vries, I., Dykema, J., Parker, A., and Hunt, H.: Governance and science implications of low environmental impact outdoors solar radiation management experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7797, 2022.

EGU22-7868 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10 | Highlight

The potential of urban soils for carbon neutral cities 

Esko Karvinen, Leena Järvi, Toni Viskari, Minttu Havu, Olivia Kuuri-Riutta, Pinja Rauhamäki, Jesse Soininen, and Liisa Kulmala

Urban areas are notable sources of atmospheric CO2 and cities are currently setting up climate programs with the aim of carbon neutrality in the near future. For example, two major cities in Southern Finland, Helsinki and Turku, have set their targets for 2035 and 2029, respectively. Carbon neutrality can be achieved by reducing carbon emissions, compensating them, and / or strengthening carbon sinks in urban vegetation and soils, the last of which is often deemed the most cost-efficient option. However, the current understanding of biogenic carbon cycling in urban environments is based on dynamics observed in more well-known ecosystems such as forests and agricultural lands. Urban ecosystems differ from non-urban areas in terms of temperature, precipitation and water cycling, pollution, and the level of human-induced disturbance. Thus, there is a need for observations on urban carbon to accurately model and estimate the carbon sinks and stocks in urban green space.

We aimed to monitor urban biogenic carbon cycle with an extensive field campaign carried out around the SMEAR III ICOS station in 2020–2022, accompanied by a few satellite sites around the capital region of Finland. In this presentation, we will show soil carbon pools and the dynamics of soil respiration at five different types of urban green space: a managed park lawn with and without trees, small urban forest, apple orchard, and street tree site. Soil respiration was measured with both regularly repeated manual chamber measurements and automatic chambers throughout two growing seasons. Soil carbon stock was estimated by soil samplings conducted in 2020 and 2021. We investigate the role of different drivers in soil CO2 emission at the various urban green space types and compare those to corresponding metrics measured in non-urban areas. In addition, we test the applicability of Yasso model to simulate the soil carbon dynamics in urban areas.

How to cite: Karvinen, E., Järvi, L., Viskari, T., Havu, M., Kuuri-Riutta, O., Rauhamäki, P., Soininen, J., and Kulmala, L.: The potential of urban soils for carbon neutral cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7868, 2022.

There are many uncertainties surrounding solar radiation management (SRM), not in the least concerning the technological feasibility of hypothetical deployment scenarios. In sulfate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) scenarios, the radiative effectiveness of the aerosol is governed by its size distribution. In turn, aerosol size distribution is governed by the aerosol-precursor injection rate and injection plume conditions. Hence, uncertainties in cost and environmental impact of aircraft-based sulfate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) are primarily determined by uncertainties in injection plume conditions. In addition, the climate impacts and side effects of SAI as simulated by climate models depend on the prescribed initial conditions concerning aerosol characteristics, which also hinge on injection plume dynamics and microphysics.

Up to now, studies into aircraft-based SAI have used simplified plume models, which estimate plume dynamics with considerable uncertainty, and which do not account for effects of the local plume dynamics on the microphysical processes. Here, we work towards reducing this uncertainty by using full computational fluid dynamics representations of plume dynamics within simulations incorporating state-of-the-art microphysics models for the computation of aerosol size distributions in aircraft engine plumes.

In order to anchor our approach in the current literature, we first consider simplified problems with the objective of validating our methodology using existing results. These experiments confirm the attainability of favourable initial aerosol size distributions under roughly the same conditions as shown with other lower-fidelity models. However, our results retain disagreement with respect to previous studies concerning the exact aerosol growth behaviour, highlighting a sensitivity to model choice which may also explain apparent contradictions in those previous studies. 

We then consider a RANS computational fluid dynamic representation of an engine plume. This differs from the simplified plume representation in several ways, including realistic local variations in temperature, vorticity, and eddy viscosity resulting from the inflow determined using a state-of-the-art engine model. This representation is currently being employed in combination with the previously validated microphysical models to simulate realistic aerosol size evolutions for aircraft-based delivery scenarios.

We anticipate our results to (1) provide a higher-confidence foundation on which to base the discussion concerning technological feasibility of SAI-based SRM and (2) constrain the uncertainty range of inputs for model and impact studies, improving reliability of simulations of (desired and undesired) effects of potential SRM scenarios and thereby informing the scientific and public debate.  

How to cite: Tluk, A., de Vries, I., Janssens, M., and Hulshoff, S.: Towards higher fidelity simulations of aerosol growth in aircraft plumes for feasibility and impact assessment of sulfate stratospheric aerosol injection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7923, 2022.

 

Abstract

The challenges posed by the growth of urbanization in Egypt and the development of new cities play an essential role in applying the circular economy (CE) in the construction materials sector and the priorities for promoting sustainable construction activities in the future. Therefore, the construction sector has many adverse environmental impacts on energy and natural resources consumption. Starting from materials production, operation until disposal to landfills. Consequently, the industry is considered one of the most consumers of non-renewable resources and producer of CO2 emissions. On the other hand, applying Nature-based solutions (NbS) to enhance sustainability by protecting the ecosystems and maintaining economic benefits plays a vital role, especially for new Egyptian cities. The research aims to investigate the role of applying NbS for achieving CE in construction materials and eliminate its negative impact in the scope of three factors:  green building materials, waste management systems, renewable energy use. The current research attempts to answer how NbS can improve the CE and reduce environmental impacts of the construction materials sector. Therefore, the SOWT analysis investigated the strengths, opportunities, weaknesses, and threats of using the NbS strategies for three different construction sites in Egypt. Furthermore, the survey questionnaire was applied to identify the interactions between the parameters derived from 40 participants such as consultants, architecture engineers, civil engineers, site engineers, project managers and review the previous research efforts. As a result, a conceptual framework was created for the construction materials considering reduce, reuse, recycle, recovery, and disposal, to identify the impact of the implementation of NbS on achieving sustainable development strategies in the Egyptian construction sector. The result showed that the NbS could effectively promote the construction sector and achieve environmental and economic benefits, which consequently help the transition to CE. Therefore, there is the necessity for developing new sustainable policies and cooperation between public and private sectors to support the investments of sustainable strategies in the construction materials market and increase Egyptian society's awareness of the benefits of NbS in economic, environmental, and social aspects.

 Keywords, Nature-based solution, Construction materials, Circular Economy, Egypt 

How to cite: Marey, H., Szabó, G., and Kozma, G.: Using the Nature-Based Solutions for Applying Circular Economy for the Construction Materials Sector in Egypt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7997, 2022.

EGU22-8269 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized and a scenario simulation of carbon dioxide removal in CMIP6 Earth system models 

Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcòn, and Chris Jones

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century currently seems to be an ambitious target which will potentially be accompanied by a period of temperature overshoot. Achieving this climate goal might require massive carbon dioxide removal on large scales. Regardless of the feasibility of such removals, their effects on biogeochemical cycles and climate are not well understood. Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and climate alter the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying carbon reservoirs of land and ocean. Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback metrics are useful tools for quantifying such changes in the carbon uptake by land and ocean, currently acting as a sink of carbon. We investigate the changes in carbon feedbacks under overshoot scenarios that could influence mitigation pathways to achieve the temperature goal. An ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models that conducted an idealized ramp-up and ramp-down experiment (1pctCO2, with increasing and later decreasing [CO2] at a rate of 1% per year) has been used and compared against a scenario simulation involving negative emissions (SSP5-3.4-OS). The analyses are based on results from biogeochemically coupled (where land and ocean respond to rising CO2 levels but the climate is kept constant) and fully coupled simulations. For the positive emission phases, the model-mean global average carbon-climate feedback looks roughly similar between the SSP5-3.4-OS and the 1pctCO2 simulations, with a gradual monotonic decreasing behavior in absolute values which translates to a reduction in land and ocean uptakes. The carbon-concentration feedback in SSP5-3.4-OS is larger than in the 1pctCO2 simulations over the ocean. Both the ocean and land simulate an increase in carbon uptake during the ramp-up, while during the ramp-down, their uptakes show a hysteresis behavior. This feature is more prominent in the idealistic 1pctCO2 experiment with a higher [CO2] growth rate and without land use change effects than in the more realistic SSP5-3.4-OS scenario. Also, the time evolution of the global annual carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks seem to be very similar over natural land areas. In addition, changes in carbon fluxes are compared over the high latitude permafrost and non-permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Over land, the carbon-concentration feedback metric is decomposed into different terms to investigate the contributions from changes in live vegetation carbon pools and soil carbon pools. This indicates that the feedback is dominated by the residence time of carbon in vegetation and soil. Furthermore, building on previous studies, feedback metrics are also calculated using an alternative approach of instantaneous flux-based feedback metrics to further compare differences between models. The difference between the two approaches can be seen more obviously in the geographical distribution of the two feedbacks, especially for the negative emission phases of the 1pctCO2 experiment.

How to cite: Asaadi, A., Schwinger, J., Lee, H., Tjiputra, J., Arora, V., Séférian, R., Liddicoat, S., Hajima, T., Santana-Falcòn, Y., and Jones, C.: Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized and a scenario simulation of carbon dioxide removal in CMIP6 Earth system models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8269, 2022.

EGU22-8598 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10 | Highlight

A systematic analysis of Horizon 2020 Nature-Based adaptation Solutions projects 

Mario Al Sayah, Pierre-Antoine Versini, and Daniel Schertzer

With the advances of the Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) concept, much attention is being given to its potential for climate change adaptation. Accordingly, Nature-Based adaptation Solutions (NBaS) have become central elements for action on climate. In the EU, the Horizon 2020 (H2020) program translates the ambition of positioning Europe as the world’s leader in NBS. In an effort to draw a comprehensive roadmap of these efforts, this study investigates 21 H2020 projects that utilize NBaS throughout different ecosystems. The main objectives of this study are to provide an inventory of current knowledge, to extract identified risks and knowledge limitations, and to propose future research orientations.

For this purpose, the CORDIS database was used to identify the relevant projects. Using the keyword nature-based solutions and through a rigorous search of research topics and programs, the following projects were retained (based on the existence of deliverables at the time of this study): CLEARING HOUSE, CLEVER Cities, Connecting Nature, DRYvER, EdiCitNet, EuPOLIS, FutureMARES, GrowGreen, NAIAD, Nature4Cities, NATURVATION, OPERADNUM, PHUSICOS, proGIreg, RECONECT, REGREEN, RENATURE, ThinkNature, UNaLab, Urban GreenUP and URBiNAT. Consequently, 137 deliverables were individually examined. Numerous findings were then obtained. These were divided into general and specific results.

In terms of general results, the definition of the NBS concept is still debated: some projects adopt the EC’s definition, others compare between the EC’s and the IUCN’s definition, while many reformulate their own. Second, the continental geographical gradient of pilot sites follows a dense South-West orientation in contrast to a less developed North-Eastern line. In terms of target ecosystems, 61% of the projects target the urban realm, while freshwater ecosystems come second. The coastal, natural and mountainous environments are the least addressed. The focus on urban systems makes most of the generated knowledge, designed solutions and monitoring methods more or less restricted to this realm, hence not necessarily applicable in other settings. Regarding climatic challenges, urban heat islands and floods came first. These are followed by sea level rise, intense precipitation, heat stress, storms, erosion and landslides.

In terms of specific findings, current knowledge and limitations were grouped in-depth per ecosystem (urban, freshwater, marine-coastal, mountainous, forest-natural, and agricultural) and per main research topics (climate change adaptation, risks of oversimplification, system complexity, uncertainty, the scale quandary, progress measuring-monitoring, and disservices). On this basis, several research perspectives were then proposed. Accordingly, interest in NBS-NBaS should extend beyond the urban ecosystem, while deeper knowledge on nature (the physical fundamentals of the N) in NBS-NBaS is needed. It is also important to understand if NBaS are intended to withstand weather change and/or climate change. For the implementation of wide-scale solutions, an extension beyond conservationism is needed, and a better accommodation of uncertainties is required. Therefore, understanding ecosystem tipping points, thresholds, and the resource efficiency of NBaS is primordial. Finally, it is crucial to acknowledge that both ecosystem development and climate change will keep progressing throughout the existence of NBaS. Therefore, the interacting co-evolution of ecosystems, NBaS and climate change should be further studied where their interaction could be forgotten.

How to cite: Al Sayah, M., Versini, P.-A., and Schertzer, D.: A systematic analysis of Horizon 2020 Nature-Based adaptation Solutions projects, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8598, 2022.

EGU22-8613 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10 | Highlight

Spatial deployment of Nature-based Solutions to support carbon neutrality for 50 EU cities. 

Haozhi Pan, Jessica Page, Cong Cong, and Zahra Kalantari

Clear implementing plan for Nature-based solutions (NBS) beyond conceptualization is critical for successful in mitigating urban carbon emissions. In this paper, we demonstrate an approach to deploy nature-based solutions on high-resolution (25x25-meter) land use grid and its carbon emission reduction benefits for 50 major European Union (EU) cities. The deployment process takes 3 parts: 1) downgrading carbon emission data with larger spatial scales (10x10km GID data) to high-resolution cells using land use and socioeconomic data; 2) identifying opportunities and suitability of deploying NBS on these land use cells from a database with meta-analysis on the emission reduction potentials of different types of NBS; 3) Estimating total carbon emission potentials from spatial deployment and coupling of of multiple NBS with parametric simulation. Our results indicate that vast areas of urbanized and un-urbanized lands in EU cities can apply NBS to further mitigate carbon emissions. The reduction potential is huge and can contribute to a critical wedge of carbon neutrality.     

How to cite: Pan, H., Page, J., Cong, C., and Kalantari, Z.: Spatial deployment of Nature-based Solutions to support carbon neutrality for 50 EU cities., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8613, 2022.

EGU22-9109 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10 | Highlight

Ecosystems for disaster risk reduction: what is the scientific evidence? 

Dr. Karen Sudmeier-Rieux and the Co-authors

Calls are rising for ecosystems, or green infrastructure, to complement engineered infrastructure for more effective disaster risk reduction and climate governance. Key international framework agreements, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and the 2021 Glasgow Pact, noted the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems in addressing climate change and disaster risk. For example, vegetation can stabilize slopes to reduce mountain hazards and sand dunes, mangroves, and/or seagrasses can reduce the impacts of coastal storms.  However, there are gaps in the scientific evidence on this topic with few comprehensive, peer-reviewed studies to support decision-making on green infrastructure for disaster risk reduction.

This study systematically reviews 529 English-language articles published between 2000 and 2019. The objective was to catalogue the extent of knowledge and confidence in the role of ecosystems in reducing disaster risk. The main question this review addresses is: What is the evidence of the role that ecosystem services and/or functions contribute to disaster risk reduction? We modified the review methodology established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to identify the robustness of evidence and level of agreement on the role of ecosystems in attenuating most common types of hazards.

The data demonstrate very robust links on the role of ecosystems in forest fire management, urban flooding and slope stabilization to reduce mountain hazards in a cost-effective manner. The study also highlights how ecosystems provide multiple services and functions in addition to regulating hazards, e.g., provisioning services for reducing vulnerability. The review highlights several research gaps, notably a geographic concentration of studies on urban areas of Europe and North America, and insufficient policy-relevant research on coastal, dryland, and watershed areas, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America. To conclude, more attention should be paid to filling these research gaps and developing performance standards, which would provide policy-makers with increased confidence in investing in green infrastructure for disaster risk reduction and climate governance.

How to cite: Sudmeier-Rieux, Dr. K. and the Co-authors: Ecosystems for disaster risk reduction: what is the scientific evidence?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9109, 2022.

EGU22-10433 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10 | Highlight

Suitability of soil carbon certificates for climate change mitigation 

Carsten Paul, Axel Don, Bartosz Bartkowski, Martin Wiesmeier, Sebastian Weigl, Steffi Mayer, Markus Steffens, André Wolf, Cenk Dönmez, and Katharina Helming

There is growing awareness of the role that agricultural soils can play for climate change mitigation. Agricultural management that increases soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks constitutes a nature-based solution for carbon dioxide removal. As soils store about twice the amount of carbon found in the atmosphere, even small relative increases could significantly reduce global warming.

However, increasing SOC requires management changes that come with costs to the farmers. In this regard, soil carbon certificates could provide a much-needed financial incentive: Farmers register their fields with commercial providers who certify any SOC increase achieved during a set period of time. The certificates are then sold on the voluntary carbon-offset market. We analysed the suitability of soil carbon certificates for climate change mitigation from the perspectives of soil sciences, agricultural management, and governance. In particular, we addressed questions of quantification, additionality, permanence, changes in emissions, leakage effects, transparency, legitimacy and accountability, as well as synergies and trade-offs with other societal targets.

Soil properties and the mechanisms by which carbon is stored in soils have strong implications for the assessment. Soils have a limited storage capacity, and SOC is not sequestered but its SOC stocks are the dynamic result of plant derived inputs and losses mainly in the form of microbial respiration. The higher the SOC stock, the higher the annual carbon inputs that is needed to maintain it. If carbon friendly management is discontinued, elevated SOC levels will therefore revert to their original level.

We found that while changes in agricultural management that increase SOC are highly desirable and offer multiple-co benefits with climate change adaptation, soil carbon certificates are unsuitable as a tool. They are unlikely to deliver the climate change mitigation they promise as certificate providers cannot guarantee permanence and additionality of SOC storage over climate relevant time-frames. Where the certified carbon storage is non-permanent or fails to meet criteria of additionality, the use of such certificates to advertise products as “carbon-neutral” may be construed as false advertising.

How to cite: Paul, C., Don, A., Bartkowski, B., Wiesmeier, M., Weigl, S., Mayer, S., Steffens, M., Wolf, A., Dönmez, C., and Helming, K.: Suitability of soil carbon certificates for climate change mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10433, 2022.

Globally, there is clear evidence that unsustainable urbanisation and climate change are pressing challenges for our systems. Nature-based Solutions are starting to be considered as a mechanism to help underpin and tackle societal and global challenges such as biodiversity loss, ecosystem depletion, resource use or human and ecological well-being. Nevertheless, still disciplines are working separately and enabling the co-design of Nature-based Solutions to reach sustainable urban planning in cities is far to be considered for climate adaptation and climate neutrality in cities. Therefore, the study intends to overcome those research gaps mentioned. On the way to tackle those issues, the paper frames the necessity to align science, policy and society goals to reach a sustainable future and bring sectors together to ensure and help build an inclusive, healthy and a resilient world. The methodology is based on a systematic review process where we explore the state of the art on the matter. This paper intends to open the discussion of a holistic, systemic and comprehensive approach to mainstreaming Nature-based Solutions  and  presents a novel pathway for transdisciplinary climate and environmental planning action. A novel conceptualization; socio-ecological and environmental-economic framework for Nature-based Solutions action plan with defined key principles to enable the mainstreaming of nature-based solutions into policies and governance. The study recommends and proposes specific nature-based solutions strategies to underpin the lack of coherence that sometimes shows in some approaches when designing and planning cities, implementing policies for sustainable urban planning and design, facilitating ecosystem restoration and human well-being. To reach an environmentally, socially, economically, locally, ecologically and politically sustainable, circular and resilient Europe by 2030 to help deliver the global policy agendas and the European Green Deal and its strategies.

How to cite: Garcia Mateo, M. C. and Tillie, N.: Enabling the mainstreaming of nature-based solutions into policy-making and governance: Holistic and systemic approach and coherence across policies to build a sustainable, circular and resilient planet and tackle societal challenges, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10493, 2022.

EGU22-10608 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Earth Climate Optimisation Productivity Island Array (ECOPIATM) 

John Allen, Calum Fitzgerald, and Lonnie Franks

A new nature based solution for capturing the entire man-made emission of carbon dioxide per year and locking it away in the deep ocean, called ECOPIATM, has been devised by a marine think tank, MyOcean Resources Ltd. This is a global solution to the anthropogenic climate change problem, without environmental downsides - it provides the fix. By using the characteristics of the Ocean, ECOPIATM removes the excess atmospheric CO2, de-acidifies the ocean’s waters, creates new sustainable fisheries, and most importantly allows the economies of the world to continue to grow and prosper.

ECOPIATM is able to address the anthropogenic climate change problem whilst having a positive global impact on economic growth. It enables continued economic growth for all nations by balancing the problem of excess atmospheric CO2 rather than following strategies that require a reduction in economic activities. Trying to reduce the amount of excess CO2 emitted by economies can be considered the biggest waste management issue the world has to solve; however current strategies have had trouble getting traction due to their negative impact on economic growth. 

By transillumination of the giant deserts of the Ocean, we can reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2 at the same time as de-acidifying the oceans, by empowering natural oceanic primary productivity simply through the provision of light. This allows ECOPIATM to be an effective CO2 waste management solution for the atmosphere. Rather than having to harm economic growth through difficult to achieve emissions reductions, companies can work with ECOPIATM to genuinely offset their atmospheric CO2 emissions, through photosynthetic CO2 uptake.

These enormous deserts of the sub-tropical open oceans, one seventh (~ 50 million km2) of the whole of the Earth’s ocean area, are reportedly getting bigger; with productive surface waters being replaced by an increase in the minimally productive surface waters of the oligotrophic gyres, at a rate of 0.8 million km2 per year . ECOPIATM in total only requires 0.2 million km2 of those gyres, just one quarter of the current increase in area per year.

Many of the nature based solutions have significant uncertainties that largely come about from the farming-like practise of changing the composition of the ‘soil’ or in this case the ocean waters. ECOPIATM takes a different approach, that of channelling light down to the depths where there are plenty of naturally determined nutrients and seed population, thus we are no longer ‘farming’ we are simply providing light. Furthermore, as there is no strict geo-engineering involved, ECOPIATM provides no mechanism for a preferential pressure on the naturally determined diversity of the light cultured ecosystem.

It has been noted by the UK's, HRH the Prince of Wales, amongst others, that the global anthropogenic climate change issue can only be solved by Industry. ECOPIATM stands out in that it is self-fundable, both in infrastructure and operational costs, via the use of Carbon Credits at today’s prices, allowing Industry to solve the issue in an affordable way.

How to cite: Allen, J., Fitzgerald, C., and Franks, L.: Earth Climate Optimisation Productivity Island Array (ECOPIATM), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10608, 2022.

EGU22-11878 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

N2O-emission risk assessment tool for nitrogenous fertilizer applications 

Henrik Vestergaard Poulsen, Sander Bruun, Cecilie Skov Nielsen, and Søren Kolind Hvid

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emitted from agricultural soils makes up a significant part of the collective agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These emission are to a large extent caused directly or indirectly by the application of nitrogenous fertilizer and there is a strong demand for mitigation strategies.

 

Nitrous oxide is produced in the soil in a range of different processes but mainly in microbial nitrification and denitrification. A number of factors exert influence on these microbial processes in the soil, most notably the oxygen concentration, availability of ammonium and nitrate, available organic matter and diffusivity, and fairly advanced process-based simulation models are often used in attempts to simulate the amount of N2O emitted. Here we propose using more a simplistic modelling approach to provide a novel risk assessment tool for nitrogenous fertilizer applications to be implemented in Danish farmers field management programmes.

 

At SEGES Innovation we have unique database access to field activity data from Danish farmers - e.g. crop sequence, fertilizer applications, residue handling, soil texture - covering more than 85 % of the Danish cultivated area. Based on these data and field specific climate data, a soil water balance model (Plauborg et al. 1995) and soil organic carbon model (Taghizadeh-Toosi et al. 2014) are running in daily timesteps for all fields in the database. These models provide, respectively, the daily level of WFPS in the soil and the organic matter turnover rate in the soil simulated during the weather forecast period of 10 days. Those two outputs are combined with a simulated soil temperature in a simplified version of the NGAS-model (Parton et al. 1996) to give a rough simulated N2O-emission for any planned fertilizer application throughout the weather forecast period.

 

The risk assessment tool exhibits this daily simulated N2O-emission as a risk evaluation of fertilizer application to the farmer in field management programmes, where future field activities are entered and logged. The objective is to lower the GHG emission by reducing the number of fertilizer applications right at peak N2O-emission conditions, once the farmers are presented with this information.    

How to cite: Vestergaard Poulsen, H., Bruun, S., Skov Nielsen, C., and Kolind Hvid, S.: N2O-emission risk assessment tool for nitrogenous fertilizer applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11878, 2022.

The deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) processes is required, as well as strong and immediate emission reductions, to limit the global temperature increase “well below to 2°C above pre-industrial levels” as required by the Article 2 of the Paris Agreement.

Among the CDR processes, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) allows to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and simultaneously to counteract the ongoing ocean acidification caused by the increased CO2 atmospheric concentration. In the framework of the DESARC (DEcreasing Seawater Acidification Removing Carbon) MARESANUS research project, different strategies to produce decarbonized slaked lime (SL), i.e. Ca(OH)2, and to discharge it in the seawater have been evaluated.

The feasibility and the potential of OAE were evaluated at the global scale and at the Mediterranean Sea basin scale. Two different logistic scenarios for the discharge of SL were analyzed: new dedicated ships, and partial load on modified existing dry bulk and container ships. The data on the existing global fleet of vessels and marine routes has been elaborated to assess the potential discharge of SL.

Through the life-cycle assessment methodology, the efficiency of removing CO2 from the atmosphere was evaluated, as well as other potential environmental impacts connected to SL production and transport. The “cradle-to-grave” approach has been applied to different configurations of the process, that consider both biomass gasification and the use of renewables as a source of energy for limestone calcination, as well as eventual CO2/H2 separation and CO2 storage.

The data collected for the life cycle inventory were mainly obtained from the preliminary design of the process and the scientific literature, as well as from the ecoinvent database. According to the environmental footprint method implemented in SimaPro software, sixteen impact categories for assessing the burdens on the environment and human are evaluated, with a particular focus on Climate change, Land use,  and Mineral and metals use.

The results show that for all the analyzed configurations, the process has a potential negative impact on the Climate change category, i.e. there is a benefit for the environment in terms of CO2 removal from the atmosphere. Since the avoided impacts are related to the source for hydrogen, the type of avoided source has a relevant role and is subjected to a sensitivity analysis.

Finally, the availability of limestone for the large-scale development of ocean alkalinisation have been evaluated, considering in particular the deposits of pure limestone near the coastlines, that  could minimize logistic and transportation activities.

Results show that pure carbonate potential resources are of several trillion tons and are not a constraint for the development of global-scale ocean liming. A large part of pure limestone resources is nearby the coastline, in areas with no or low vegetation cover, mainly in North Africa and Iran. Global limestone yearly production is similar to coal, and the required upscaling compared to the current extraction rate is far lower for limestone than for other materials considered for OAE, such as olivine, magnesite and brucite.

How to cite: Campo, F. P., Caserini, S., and Grosso, M.: Feasibility, potential and environmental impacts of ocean alkalinity enhancement for removing CO2 from the atmosphere and counteracting seawater acidification, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12467, 2022.

EGU22-12839 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10 | Highlight

"The Arctic - the first step towards the terraformation of Mars. Experiences from northern Europe." 

Adrianna Rusek and Miłosz Huber

The Arctic is an area with unique climatic qualities on Earth. Located behind the Arctic Circle, the region is characterized by numerous phenomena such as polar day (in summer) and polar night (in winter), which affect the state of well-being of people living there. The numerous aurorae are examples of magnetic storms whose health effects are most pronounced in this region. Extreme temperatures can be recorded in these zones, especially in winter. At the same time, it is there that the environment shows great sensitivity to changing climatic conditions and human activities. A small increase in temperature can melt permafrost and methane clathrates. At this time, climate change affects the ecosystem of the plant and animal world. At the same time, it is in the Arctic that there are important deposits of energy resources, non-ferrous metals and others. In the Arctic regions there are trade routes connecting the continents (the so-called "Northern Road"). Growing interest in the Arctic contributes to its urbanization. This process is also important in a broader context. Many of the technologies that prove themselves in these harsh conditions will also be applicable in other climate zones. The Arctic is becoming a testing ground for human missions in harsh conditions, a way to survive in an unfavorable climate, and to test pro-environmental technologies. An important advantage of the Arctic is also its great similarity to the climatic conditions of the warmest zones on Mars. However, compared to Mars, planning engineering projects in the Arctic has many advantages. The presence of air at normal pressure, while not preventing the construction of airtight capsules, allows for easier evacuation of personnel in the event of a failure of life support systems.  Working people at various stations in the Arctic can be just as tested for the vulnerability of long periods of being in a small confined space. Nevertheless, there are also numerous localities in the Arctic where people lead relatively normal lives, the best example being northern Scandinavia, which is currently the most urbanized area beyond the Arctic Circle.  Their experience of living in the extreme conditions of the north, the problems of urban development and transportation, environmental protection and many other areas of life in this zone, can be an important source of information for other inhabitants of Earth and Mars.  Issues related to the problems of environmental protection and the fight against pollution in this climate zone will be just as relevant in other zones, where there are many more opportunities to use, for example, renewable energy sources. In the long run, building stable urbanized human settlements in the Arctic will become an example of human activity in the region of Mars and (perhaps) other regions of the Solar System. The authors present numerical data and possible scenarios of sustainable urbanization development in the Arctic based on selected examples of Scandinavian experience. They analyze which of them have universal character and are possible to apply also in other climatic conditions. 

How to cite: Rusek, A. and Huber, M.: "The Arctic - the first step towards the terraformation of Mars. Experiences from northern Europe.", EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12839, 2022.

EGU22-13010 | Presentations | ITS4.4/ERE1.10

Scientific evidence of the economic benefits of ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction and ecosystem-based climate change adaptation 

Marta Vicarelli, Michael Kang, Madeline Leue, Aryen Shrestha, David Wasielewski, Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Jaroslav Mysiak, Simon Schütze, Michael Marr, Shannon McAndrew, and Miranda Vance

Ecosystems and ecosystem services are key to helping achieve reduction in disaster risk, sustainable development, and climate change adaptation, and this is now recognized by major international framework agreements (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2014; United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015-2030). However, there is limited knowledge about the cost efficiency and socio-economic equity outcomes of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) compared to traditional engineered strategies.

In this study we developed a global database of more than 130 peer-reviewed studies, published between 2000 and 2020, that perform economic evaluations of NbS for Ecosystem-based Climate Adaptation (EbA) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). Using meta-analysis techniques, we assess the existing scientific knowledge on the economic viability and performance of NbS for Eco-DRR and EbA, cataloguing outcomes both in terms of degree of economic efficiency and social equity. Our analysis includes multiple dimensions: geographic distribution of the published studies, types of ecosystems and ecosystem services evaluated, hazards and climate impacts analyzed, and economic methodologies used to perform economic efficiency evaluations (e.g., cost benefit analysis, stated/revealed preferences evaluation methods).

This study builds on a recent global assessment (Sudmeier-Rieux et al, 2021) that performs the first systematic review of Eco-DRR peer-reviewed studies across all disciplines. Their results show robustness of evidence and level of agreement on the role of ecosystems in attenuating 30 types of hazards, based on the assessment methodology established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our meta-analysis expands the 2021 review by evaluating the economic benefits associated with Eco-DRR and NbA approaches; by examining cost efficiency of Eco-DRR and NbA interventions compared to traditional engineering solutions; by performing equity assessments of the outcomes; and by studying how the NbS interventions reviewed contributed to the sustainable development goals (SDGs).

REFERENCE:

Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Arce-Mojica,T., Boehmer, H.J., Doswald, N., Emerton, L., Friess, D.A., Galvin, S., Hagenlocher, M., James, H., Laban, P., Lacambra, C., Lange, W., McAdoo, B.G., Moos, C., Mysiak, J., Narvaez, L., Nehren, U., Peduzzi, P1., Renaud, F.G., Sandholz, S., Schreyers, L., Sebesvari, Z., Tom, T., Triyanti, A., van Eijk, P., van Staveren, M., Vicarelli, M., Walz, Y. "Scientific evidence for ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction." Nature Sustainability (2021): 1-8. 

How to cite: Vicarelli, M., Kang, M., Leue, M., Shrestha, A., Wasielewski, D., Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Mysiak, J., Schütze, S., Marr, M., McAndrew, S., and Vance, M.: Scientific evidence of the economic benefits of ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction and ecosystem-based climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13010, 2022.

Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) is one of the most effective ways of artificial groundwater recharge to assure freshwater availability during droughts in arid and semi-arid areas. However, this method of managed aquifer recharge is less prevalent in saline groundwater regions due to low recovery efficiency (RE). The injected freshwater of an ASR scheme in saline regions is decreased due to mixing between fresh-saline water and the upward movement of stored freshwater due to gravity effects. The losses due to mixing, however, can be reduced by managing the operational parameters. This study proposes a solution for reducing losses of injected freshwater due to gravitational within the saline aquifer by introducing multiple partially penetrating well-system (MPPW) in place of a single fully penetrating well-system (SFPW). A variable-density flow (SEAWAT) model is used to simulate and compare the ASR system performance for specific hydrogeological conditions and variable operational parameters for SFPW and MPPW well systems. The results indicate that by using MPPW in place of the SFPW ASR well system, 8 to 15% extra injected freshwater can be recovered. The difference in recovery efficiency due to the use of MPPW in place of SFPW tends to increase with the increasing values of injected freshwater storage duration and the number of successive ASR cycles and decreases with increasing the injection/recovery rates and injection volumes. This research provides the basis for understanding the suitable ASR well type for any specific site for different operational factors.

How to cite: Tiwari, S. and Yadav, B. K.: Improving the performance of Aquifer Storage and Recovery schemes using Multiple Partially Penetrating Wells, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-92, 2022.

Human modernizations and achievements are at peak but in contrary we ignore facts about the tremendous amount of anthropogenic waste that are exposed directly to atmosphere which later reach groundwater aquifer and contaminate through natural water cycle. So, to limelight man-made sources, Wanaparthy watershed is chosen as it is densely agriculture urban area covering about 1600 km2 were peoples solely get their daily wages from farming. Samples were collected systematically for pre (march-may) and post monsoon (september-december) through gird preparation (5*6 sq.km) to determine the hydrogeochemical characteristics of physicochemical parameters and major analytes concentration to preside the types, quality, permissibility, facies and nitrate health risk of different age groups in groundwater. In short findings are as follows: Major analytes concentration for pre-monsoon, Cl- (8.02%) >HCO3- (3.27%) >SO42-(2.75%) >NO3-(1.09%) >F-(0.02%); Na+(4.08%) >Ca+2(1.71%) >Mg+2 (0.45%) >K+ (0.26%)while post-monsoon, HCO3-(8.94%) >Cl- (6.9%) >SO42- (2.46%) >NO3- (2.42%) >F-(0.02%); Na+(3.28%) >Mg+2(2.14%) >Ca+2(0.75%) >K+(0.28%) respectively. Piper diagram explains the major water types for pre- and post-monsoon as Na-Cl type and Ca-Mg-Cl type. Gibb’s plot shows that in both seasons the dominant environmental facies are influence by rock and evaporation conditions. Water quality index shows deterioration increase at most twice from “poor to unfit class” (36.21% - 60.34%) during pre to post season. Health Quotient evaluation for nitrate indicates “children group” as most effected where HQ value range from 5.40E-03 to 1.23E+01 (72.4 pc) followed by infant group, 5.80E-03 to 1.31E+01 (68.97 pc) and adult 2.10E-03 to 4.68E+00 (32.7pc). And, from spatial distribution maps it is observed that slope and structure have direct response to recharge/discharge as well as aquifer properties.

How to cite: Vaiphei, S. P. and Mohan, K. R.: Characteristics of groundwater quality and its non-carcinogenic health risk assessment through monsoon inputs in Wanaparthy watershed, Telangana, India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-173, 2022.

 

 

ABSTRACT: Harvesting rain and flood water is a common practice in desert and arid areas. The storage of water is always influenced by hot weather periods where most of the stored water is lost either by evaporation or infiltration of water into very deep aquifers.  Utilizing sand clay liners as barriers for near-surface material can work as an efficient tool for better use of water resources.  In desert areas where groundwater is located at a deep level the cost of retrieving water is high and requires expensive infrastructure and systems. The concept of this study is to create an artificial aquifer enhanced with pumping systems to supply water to shallow-rooted plants in an adjacent zone.  A simplified model consisting of major collection tanks with automatic pumps was used in a project to save irrigation water in the Eastern province of Saudi Arabia. This concept can be expanded to create large deep-seated storage overlain by granular soil to minimize evaporation. Water supply from this aquifer can be transported to nearby fields by gravity if the water level in the aquifer is higher than the planted area or by pumping if water is needed at a higher level. The sand-clay liner can be made up of bentonite of 10% to 15% clay content by dry weight. The work presented in this study includes the characteristics of the material used and the mechanism followed to retain and re-use water multiple times.  5TE Decagon sensors capable of recording moisture content, temperature, and electrical conductivity connected to Em50 data loggers were employed.  Chemical tests and the salinity of water were monitored during the process. Suggested storage geometries are presented for efficient use of the system.

 

 

KEYWORDS: subsurface storage, barriers, sand-clay mixtures, hydraulic conductivity, evaporation.  

How to cite: Dafalla, M.: Intercepting rain and stormwater using clay-sand liners to maximize irrigation to shallow-rooted plants in desert and arid areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2492, 2022.

EGU22-3104 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Controlled drainage with subirrigation: a water management measure to discharge, retain and recharge freshwater 

Janine de Wit, Marjolein van Huijgevoort, Gé van den Eertwegh, Dion van Deijl, and Ruud Bartholomeus

Sufficient freshwater is needed for water dependent sectors as agriculture, nature, drinking water, and industry. However, even in low-lying, flood prone countries like the Netherlands, climate change, weather extremes, economic growth, urbanization, land subsidence and increased food production will make it more complex to guarantee sufficient freshwater for all sectors. Specifically, the range of weather extremes from extremely dry to extremely wet is expected to increase and extremes are expected to occur more frequently.

Over the last decades, drainage, land consolidation and urbanization resulted in declining groundwater tables. Additionally, the freshwater demand of different sectors caused an increased pressure on the regional groundwater system. As a consequence, the annual groundwater table in the Dutch sandy soil areas dropped over time with the effect that, nowadays, freshwater is becoming scarce in dry periods. Agriculture needs to anticipate on these conditions in order to prevent both drought and waterlogging. However, the current Dutch agricultural water management system is historically focused on water discharge and not designed to anticipate on both weather extremes.

One of the solutions could be to modify the current pipe drainage systems (already existing in 34 % of the agricultural land) to drainage systems with three purposes, called: controlled drainage with subirrigation. First, the drainage systems could discharge water if the risk of waterlogging increases. Second, the drainage system could store water during rainfall in the soil (retain water). Third, (external) water can be actively pumped into the drainage network to raise groundwater tables (recharge water).

We focus on the data and model output of four experimental sites in the Pleistocene uplands of the Netherlands, where controlled drainage with subirrigation is applied. Field data is collected over ± the years 2017-2021, like water supply, groundwater table, soil moisture content. Water balance components as actual transpiration, drainage and downward seepage are modelled with SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model). The effects on crop yield and configuration of the management are also quantified with the model.

The construction of controlled drainage with subirrigation, topographical location, and a proper management of these systems are important. First, results show that through subirrigation, water can be stored in the soil instead of discharged. The water storage leads to an increase in groundwater tables of ± 0.70 m during the growing season, leading to higher crop yields. By storing external water at the field scale, fast drainage was prevented, which decreased drought vulnerability. Second, results of the four experimental sites show that effects of subirrigation on the water balance components are strongly site dependent. For example, an impermeable layer at a shallow depth is needed for enough resistance to increase the phreatic groundwater level. Furthermore, ditch levels surrounded by the field are important as a shallow groundwater table with low ditch levels results in lateral drainage, an unfavorable effect. Third, results of the experimental sites show that proper management of these systems is important to prevent clogging of the system.

How to cite: de Wit, J., van Huijgevoort, M., van den Eertwegh, G., van Deijl, D., and Bartholomeus, R.: Controlled drainage with subirrigation: a water management measure to discharge, retain and recharge freshwater, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3104, 2022.

EGU22-4147 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Use of satellite remote sensing and independent component analysis to assess land subsidence and aquifer system properties over the Willcox Basin, USA 

Mimi Peng, Zhong Lu, Chaoying Zhao, Mahdi Motagh, Lin Bai, and Brian D. Conway

The Willcox Basin, located in southeast of Arizona, USA, covers an area of approximately 4,950 km2 and is essentially a closed broad alluvial valley basin. The basin measures approximately 15 km to 45 km in width and is 160 km long. Long-term excessive groundwater exploitation for agricultural, domestic and stock applications has resulted in substantial ground subsidence in the Willcox Groundwater Basin. The land subsidence rate of the Willcox Basin has not declined but has rather increased in recent years, posing a threat to infrastructure, aquifer systems, and ecological environments.

In this study, an integrated analysis of remote sensing and in-situ groundwater observations is made to assess characteristics of land subsidence and response of the aquifer skeletal system to the change in hydraulic head in Willcox Basin. L-band ALOS and C-band Sentinel-1 SAR data acquired from 2006 to 2020 are analyzed using multi-temporal interferometric approach to derive subsidence deformation. We show that the overall deformation patterns are characterized by two major zones of subsidence, with the mean subsidence rate increasing with time from 2006 to 2020. This study also suggests that subsidence here is a result of human-induced compaction of sediments due to massive pumping in the deep aquifer system and groundwater depletion. 

Independent component analysis (ICA) a leading method for blind source separation to isolate signals without knowing a priori information about the signal sources, which was adopted to separate the mixed InSAR time series signal into a set of independent signals. On the one hand, the application of ICA filtered the residual errors in InSAR observations to enhance the deformation time series, and the deformation accuracy is improved by more than 13%. On the other hand, it also revealed that two different spatiotemporal deformation features exist in this area, indicating hydrogeological properties of aquifer systems are spatially variable in this basin.

In addition, the relationship between the observed land subsidence variations and the hydraulic head changes in a confined aquifer is analyzed. Using InSAR measurements and groundwater level data, the response of the aquifer skeletal system to the change in hydraulic head was quantified, and the hydromechanical properties of the aquifer system is characterized. The estimated storage coefficients, ranging from 6.0×10-4 to 0.02 during 2006-2011 and from 2.3×10-5 to 0.087 during 2015-2020, signify an irreversible and unrecoverable deformation of the aquifer system in the Willcox Basin. The reduced average storage coefficient (from 0.008 to 0.005) indicates that long-term overdraft has already degraded the storage ability of the aquifer system and that groundwater pumping activities are unsustainable in the Willcox Basin. Historical spatiotemporal storage loss from 1990 to 2020 was also estimated using InSAR measurements, hydraulic head and estimated skeletal storativity. The estimated cumulative groundwater storage depletion was 3.7×108 m3 from 1990 to 2006. 

Understanding the characteristics of land surface deformation and quantifying the response of aquifer systems in the Willcox Basin and other groundwater basins elsewhere are important in managing groundwater exploitation to sustain the mechanical health and integrity of aquifer systems.

How to cite: Peng, M., Lu, Z., Zhao, C., Motagh, M., Bai, L., and Conway, B. D.: Use of satellite remote sensing and independent component analysis to assess land subsidence and aquifer system properties over the Willcox Basin, USA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4147, 2022.

EGU22-4617 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Vulnerability of aquifers on volcanic islands: the case of La Palma and El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain) 

Juan C. Santamarta, Noelia Cruz-Pérez, Jesica Rodríguez-Martín, Miguel Ángel Marazuela, Rosana Álvarez-Vázquez, and Alejandro García-Gil

The outermost regions of Europe are nine: Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Mayotte, Reunion and Saint Martin (France), the Canary Islands (Spain), the Azores and Madeira (Portugal). These regions enrich the EU economically, culturally and geographically, hosting 80% of its biodiversity. However, due to their remoteness and other unique features, they pose challenges for their development. The particular case of the Canary Islands will be developed in the framework of the European H2020 project Arsinoe, where the hydrological cycle and agriculture in the Canary archipelago will be studied in El Hierro and La Palma. These two islands have been selected for the following reasons: i) El Hierro is a pioneer in presenting a self-sufficient energy model (La Gorona del Viento project) and is rich in groundwater, this being the most used water resource on the island; ii) La Palma has been selected because it is an island rich in groundwater (in fact, it is the only island in the Canary archipelago that does not have desalination plants) and where agriculture is very important (especially tropical crops such as banana, mango, avocado, etc.) and, due to the volcanic eruption that began in September 2021, the situation of the aquifer is uncertain, something that is worrying since La Palma depends on groundwater resources to guarantee the water demand of agriculture, local population and tourism. The effect of the eruption on the vulnerability of the aquifer of La Palma is still unknown, so it is desired to study in depth the effects on the aquifer in quantitative and qualitative terms therefore, ARSINOE will focus on the ecological transition and vulnerability of aquifers in volcanic islands and will put further efforts to the primary production including agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, water management and clean energy infrastructure. ARSINOE will take into account the interdependence between water and agriculture. The agricultural sector is the largest water user in the Canary Islands, where wine, potatoes and tomatoes are the main exports. Therefore, greater sustainability within the water sector (through the water footprint and the carbon footprint) will positively affect the agricultural sector and, therefore, the water and energy situation of the archipelago. But aquifers of both islands are also at risk due to other circumstances, specifically those derived from climate change: greater saline intrusion (due to rising sea levels), losses in freshwater inputs (due to decreased rainfall), changes in physic-chemical conditions of all water bodies… All these effects will be studied on both islands, through the ARSINOE Project, and from a local point of view. 

How to cite: Santamarta, J. C., Cruz-Pérez, N., Rodríguez-Martín, J., Marazuela, M. Á., Álvarez-Vázquez, R., and García-Gil, A.: Vulnerability of aquifers on volcanic islands: the case of La Palma and El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4617, 2022.

EGU22-5856 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Downscaling WGHM-Based Groundwater Storage Data Using Regression Method: A Regional Study over Qazvin Plain, Iran 

Soroush Zarghami Dastjerdi, Ehsan Sharifi, Bahram Saghafian, and Andreas Güntner

Climate change, urbanization, and growing population have led to the rapid increase in the use of groundwater. Therefore, monitoring the groundwater (GW) changes is essential for water management and decision-makers. Due to frequent lack of reliable and sufficient in-situ information, remote sensing and hydrological models can be counted as the alternative sources for assessing GW storage changes on a regional and global scale. Here, we test such an approach for Qazvin Plain in Iran, one of the regions that recently have been facing severe drought conditions. The main purpose of this study is to downscale GW storage anomaly (GWSA) of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) from a coarse (0.5-degree) to a finer spatial resolution (0.1-degree) using fine spatial resolution auxiliary datasets (0.1-degree) such as the evaporation, surface and subsurface runoff, snow depth, volumetric soil water, and soil temperature from the ERA5-Land model and precipitation from integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (IMERG). Different regression models were tested for the GWSA downscaling. Moreover, since different water budget components such as precipitation or storage are known to have temporal lead or lag relative to each other, the approach also includes a time shift factor among the components. The most suitable regression model with the highest skill score during the validation test was selected and applied to predict the 0.1-degree GWSA. The downscaled results showed a high agreement with the in-situ groundwater levels for Qazvin Plain in both interannual and monthly scales, with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and 0.65, respectively. Moreover, the downscaled product clearly proves that the developed downscaling technique is able to learn from high-resolution auxiliary data to capture GWSA features at higher spatial resolution. The major benefit of this method is in utilizing only the auxiliary data that are available with global coverage and free of cost, and that this method does not need in-situ GW records for training. Therefore, the proposed downscaling technique can potentially be applied to a global scale, other geographical regions, or aquifers.

This study has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme for G3P (Global Gravity-based Groundwater Product) under grant agreement nº 870353.

How to cite: Zarghami Dastjerdi, S., Sharifi, E., Saghafian, B., and Güntner, A.: Downscaling WGHM-Based Groundwater Storage Data Using Regression Method: A Regional Study over Qazvin Plain, Iran, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5856, 2022.

Arid and semi-arid areas characterised by low precipitation and high evaporation rates are highly vulnerable to alterations in precipitation regimes, leading to water deficiency and an increase in dependence on groundwater resources. Flash floods have become more frequent in several semi-arid regions due to changing climatic conditions. Thus, an efficient water management system is needed for these regions to manage flash floods and support groundwater recharge. A coupled surface water-groundwater model is an advanced tool for simulating large-scale hydrologic processes and quantifying factors influencing floods and drought. To accommodate the high variability and heterogeneous spatial distribution of surface and groundwater resources, distributed modelling tools are essential. However, scarce monitoring networks may lead to the unavailability of spatio-temporal input data and limit the applicability of these models. Advances in remote sensing (RS) techniques for monitoring hydrological parameters like precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and groundwater depth can mitigate this problem.

This study analyses the remote sensing product MOD11A1.006 of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which provides daily day and night land surface temperature (LST) at a spatial resolution of 1000 m, facilitating the analysis of surface water-groundwater interactions through distributed hydrological modelling in the semi-arid Banas River basin (~6800 km2). Remotely sensed LST data allowed air surface temperature (Ta), which is crucial for estimating reference evapotranspiration, to be retrieved. While Ta at weather stations 2 m above the ground are more accurate, those data have limited spatial coverage. The Banas River basin contains five weather stations located primarily in the central region. To improve the spatial distribution of reference evapotranspiration, which is a significant input of the hydrological models, a linear regression model using Ta observed at the weather stations of Banas basin, along with LST, elevation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), latitude, and longitude of the pixels coinciding with the location of weather stations was developed to estimate the air surface temperature for the whole basin.

A multiple linear regression model was built by stepwise linear regression (SLR) method using the OLSRR package of R. Calibration using day LST, latitude and longitude provided the best estimate of maximum Ta, with an adjusted R2 value of 0.60, Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.72, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.2o C. While calibration using night LST and elevation data provided the best estimate of minimum Ta with an adjusted R2 value of 0.81, r of 0.84 and RMSE of 3.02o C. The daily LST data and daily Ta data have shown a good agreement. This research improves the understanding of the spatial distribution of daily day and night air temperature in the Banas River basin. It opens a new methodological perspective for groundwater and surface water management through hydrological modelling with a spatial resolution greater than that of the existing monitoring networks.

How to cite: Singh, N., Cartwright, I., and Chinnasamy, P.: Estimation of air surface temperature using MODIS land surface temperature over data-scarce Banas River basin, Western India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6881, 2022.

Benfratello's conceptual method, to estimate the irrigation deficit for agricultural districts in semiarid or arid climate, firstly came to light in 1961. The method generalizes previous Thornthwaite (1948) and Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) water balances to assess the irrigation deficit as the difference between the maximum evapotranspiration, exerted by the plant in full irrigation conditions and traditionally estimated with the Thornthwaite formula, and the actual evapotranspiration provided by the available soil water. Since its first appearance, it has been applied to the study of many areas in Southern Italy. Due to its simplicity and to the small number of required parameters, Benfratello's method might be regarded to as an effective tool to assess the effects of climatic, landuse and anthropogenic changes on the soil water balance and on the irrigation deficit.

In the previous General Assembly we presented a GIS based application of Benfratello's method to the case study of the semiarid Capitanata plane (4550 km2, Southern Italy), which is one of the most important agricultural districts in Italy. With this contribution we present a further theoretical development of the method that allows to simply estimate in closed form the uncertainity of the calculated irrigation deficit, once known the uncertainty of the required climatic variables (temperature and precipitation). Our procedure is based on a local linearization of the core—function of Benfratello’s method, which presents the decrease of the available soil water, during the dry season, as a function of the potential soil water loss, given by the difference between the maximum evapotranspiration demand and the precipitation. The maximum evapotranspiration was in this case determined by means of the Hargraves formula, according to FAO procedure in case of limited availability of meteorological data. The estimate of the uncertainty can be easily performed in both the cases in which the field capacity is completely or only partially restored during the wet season. As a test case, the method was then applied to some sites in the Capitanata plane and extended to the whole plane through a GIS application, with fair results if compared with the required water volumes declared by the local irrigation consortium.

How to cite: Barontini, S., Peli, M., Rapuzzi, C., Colosio, P., and Ranzi, R.: A method to assess the uncertainty of Benfratello’s estimate of the irrigation deficit in a semiarid area and its GIS based application for anthropogenic and climate change scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8159, 2022.

EGU22-8221 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Impact of climate change and groundwater consumption scenarios on a major transboundary karst water resource - The Western Mountain Aquifer in Israel and the West Bank 

Lysander Bresinsky, Jannes Kordilla, Irina Engelhardt, Yakov Livshitz, and Martin Sauter

Climate simulations indicate that the Mediterranean region will be severely affected by climate change and is often referred to as the most prominent climate change hotspot (Gao and Giorgi, 2008). This study addresses the combined effects of climate change and three groundwater consumption scenarios on the water availability of the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel and the West Bank. Generally applied methods to quantify recharge and water resources rely on linear regressions or simplified models, such as data-driven approaches (i.e., lumped-parameter and black-box approaches). However, they are unfit to assess climate change impacts because the predictive power of data-driven approaches is low, should the variability of, e.g., precipitation expand beyond historically observed fluctuations, such as expected from climate change effects. Furthermore,  they do not honor the physics of flow. Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change requires the application of distributed process-based numerical models that incorporate as many relevant physical flow processes as feasible. For example, when karstified vadose zones measure several hundreds of meters, such as in the case of the WMA, variably saturated flow is a highly relevant flow process controlling vadose storage at large timescales and altering recharge flux at the “control plane” groundwater table.
We simulate the complex dynamics of the dual-domain infiltration and partitioning of the precipitation input signal by employing HydroGeoSphere (HGS) for transient variably saturated water flow. Flow in the limestone rock matrix and secondary high porosity system (i.e., conduits and fractures) is modeled by overlapping individual continua based on the bulk effective Richards’ equation with van Genuchten (VG) parameterization. The model input of this study stems from two coherent dynamically downscaled high-resolution regional climate projections (daily, 3km, and 8km resolution) until the year 2070, assuming the IPCC RCP4.5 climate change scenario. The results indicate that long-term average recharge quantities will decrease by circa 10 % compared to the reduction in average precipitation by 30 %. The mitigated impact on recharge is an effect of the pronounced heterogeneity of karstic flow (i.e., preferential recharge along with karst dissolution features) and increased intensity of individual rainfall events, emphasizing the need to apply spatiotemporally resolved climate models with daily precipitation values as input to the recharge assessment. However, despite the comparatively moderate decrease in recharge, the length and severity of consecutive drought years with low recharge values are likely to increase while freshwater demand is believed to increase during these periods, emphasizing the need to adjust the current management practices to climate change. Finally, the model is used to simulate managed aquifer recharge applications to mitigate the effects of more extended drought periods by strategic freshwater reserves. 

How to cite: Bresinsky, L., Kordilla, J., Engelhardt, I., Livshitz, Y., and Sauter, M.: Impact of climate change and groundwater consumption scenarios on a major transboundary karst water resource - The Western Mountain Aquifer in Israel and the West Bank, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8221, 2022.

EGU22-8732 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Prospecting Potential Groundwater Zones through Geotechnology and Statistics Techniques in the Grande River Basin, Bahia,Brazil 

Thyago Anthony Soares Lima and Paulo de Tarso Amorim Castro

The source of the Grande river and its tributaries on the left bank are located in a tropical region adjacent to the humid valley of the Tocantins river, with rainfall that favors the continuity of the rivers. In the middle and east part of the basin, the predominance is of the semi-arid climate, as well as typical of the middle São Francisco basin, with irregular rainfall that does not contribute to the supply of the rivers. It is noteworthy that most of the tributaries of the hydrographic basin are intermittent. The Grande river basin is part of two important hydrogeological systems, the Group Bambuí system and the Urucuia system (SAU), which is the most important system in the western region of Bahia, as well as one of the most important in the São Francisco river basin, as well as the entire brazilian Northeast region, in addition to being one of the most relevant in the country, since it is a strategic source of water. Such hydrogeological systems are directly responsible for supplying the hydrographic basin in its dry periods. The Brazilian semi-arid region, with its limited water resources, is currently classified as a critical dry and water-poor area. This study aims to identify potential areas of groundwater in the aforementioned hydrographic basin, located in the middle eastern portion of the São Francisco river basin, in the State of Bahia. Integrating geological and hydrogeological analyses, remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and multicriteria statistical evaluation (AHP) techniques. It is intended to create thematic layers in a GIS where values will be assigned using appropriate weights and classifications in relation to their relative contribution to the occurrence of groundwater through multicriteria assessment techniques. These layers include lithology, geomorphology, lineament density, drainage density, soil texture, precipitation, and slope. The final groundwater potential map is composed of five classes of groundwater potential: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. The validity of the results of this GIS-based model was performed by superimposing existing wells, analyzing the statistical probability of the existence of groundwater. The single parameter sensitivity test was performed to evaluate the influence of the signaled weights on the groundwater potential model, and new effective weights will be derived after the analysis, as a way to calibrate the model, and the ROC analysis was applied to validate the model

Keywords :Groundwater, Grande River Basin, AHP, Prospecting, Statistical probability, GIS

 

How to cite: Soares Lima, T. A. and Amorim Castro, P. D. T.: Prospecting Potential Groundwater Zones through Geotechnology and Statistics Techniques in the Grande River Basin, Bahia,Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8732, 2022.

EGU22-9631 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Predicting evaporative loss at an Argentinian vineyard using a coupled water, vapor and heat flow model 

Johanna Blöcher, Arij Chmeis, and Michal Kuraz

Water resources in arid regions around the world are under a lot of strain due to extremely low precipitation rates and very high evaporation. In addition to water scarcity, irrigation methods can be inefficient. For example, over-irrigation beyond soil saturation can cause many problems, such as an increase in soil salinity and a decrease in productive soil capacity. This research aims to design a water content and soil temperature prediction system for an automated sensor monitoring system installed at the vineyard Ecohumus in San Juan province, Argentina. Short-term predictions of the water balance have the potential in delivering a useful tool to farmers for optimizing their irrigation water consumption.

For modeling soil water dynamics with evaporation and root water uptake losses, we use a coupled water, vapor, and heat flow model implemented in DRUtES software, Kuraz and Blöcher (2020). The model's top boundary condition solves the surface energy balance. For that we use weather forecast data and solar radiation as an input. The weather forecast is obtained from Norwegian meteorological institute (yr.no) using their API for developers which is provided as a free service. The solar radiation is computed based on equations suggested in the FAO Irrigation and Drainage guideline No. 56 and by Saito et al. (2006). Due to the lack of measurement data on the study site, soil hydraulic and thermal properties are estimated. We neglect the effect of soil organic matter in the water retention model and assume a homogeneous type of soil for the thermodynamic model. We establish communication with sensors installed in the soil for estimating initial conditions as well as with weather forecast service for estimating boundary conditions using our R script.

The result is output records that simulate pressure heads and water content distribution across the flow field over the simulated period. We present a system that describes the flow field allowing us to calculate evaporation rate changes with time, thereby optimizing the irrigation process according to soil and plant needs. This can be a helpful decision-making tool for farmers.

How to cite: Blöcher, J., Chmeis, A., and Kuraz, M.: Predicting evaporative loss at an Argentinian vineyard using a coupled water, vapor and heat flow model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9631, 2022.

EGU22-12385 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Impact of irrigation scheduling on yield and water productivity of soybeans in a sub-humid environment: A modelling approach. 

Angela Gabriela Morales Santos, Reinhard Nolz, and Margarita García-Vila

In sub-humid areas, supplementary irrigation is often needed to meet crop water requirements and avoid yield reduction. The effect of water scarcity on agriculture is worsened in locations where summer rainfall is decreasing as a consequence of climate change. In order to stabilize crop production through sustainable water management, improvements of irrigation scheduling methods are required. For instance, traditional irrigation scheduling criteria that provided adequate yields in the past, may no longer be appropriate under drier conditions. Models that combine crop physiological and soil hydrological processes can help improving irrigation scheduling to optimize water productivity. The purpose of this study was to evaluate irrigation management approaches traditionally used by farmers in Austria, specifically at a study site located in the largest crop production area of the country (ca. 35 km east from Vienna), by means of a modelling approach. This study also aimed at proposing an irrigation schedule that increases water productivity, thereby aiding water conservation.

AquaCrop is a crop growth model developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) that uses an empirical and mechanistic approach to simulate yield response to water for a variety of crops. In this study, AquaCrop was used to simulate crop water requirements of soybeans in a sub-humid environment under different water management practices. The model was validated after adjustments on the non-conservative crop parameters based on field measurements. The experimental field was divided into four plots. One plot was rainfed and the others were irrigated – each of them by means of a different irrigation system. The systems used were sprinklers on a pipe network, drip lines and a hose reel boom. Irrigation was managed by the farmers based on their experience. The collected data included leaf area index to obtain green canopy cover development and soil samples at different depths to characterize the soil. After the validation process, an irrigation schedule that covered the full crop water requirements was automatically generated by the model. Additionally, irrigation schedules for each irrigated plot were generated based on percentage of readily available soil water (RAW) thresholds.

The simulated yields were in good agreement with the observed data, with a model efficiency coefficient (EF) > 0.80 for the four plots. The irrigated plots revealed a certain level of stress during the critical crop growth stage of flowering, even though they were expected to represent well-watered conditions. After simulating net crop water requirements, the resulting potential yield was larger than the observed yields. Furthermore, the irrigation events generated using RAW thresholds also produced larger yields than the observed ones. The results showed that to schedule the irrigation events earlier in the season and distribute the same total irrigation water amount in four events rather than three – as scheduled by the farmers – increased the yield and thus, water productivity. Therefore, AquaCrop model predictions can help improving farmers’ irrigation scheduling strategies for soybeans under this study conditions. This might be helpful for local farmers in situations of increasing pressure on water resources.

How to cite: Morales Santos, A. G., Nolz, R., and García-Vila, M.: Impact of irrigation scheduling on yield and water productivity of soybeans in a sub-humid environment: A modelling approach., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12385, 2022.

EGU22-12997 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Monitoring Solanum lycopersicum var. Elpida salinity stress using multispectral imaging 

Dimitris Papadimitriou, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Constantinos Constantinopoulos, Thrassyvoulos Manios, and Dimitrios Kosmopoulos

Under salinity stress, plant physiology and yield characteristics deteriorate, showing, among others, symptoms similar to those of water stress. Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) is moderately sensitive to salinity stress and suffers yield losses of over 15% at irrigation water electrical conductivity (ECw) of  3 dSm-1 (Malash et al., 2008) and over 25% at ECw of 3.5 dSm-1 (Daliakopoulos et al., 2019). As salinity can often buildup in soils and substrates, it can have a creeping effect not readily measurable in irrigation water ECw, therefore it is essential that plant physiology symptoms are spotted early to take corrective action. Here we investigate the potential of multispectral imaging, to detect early symptoms of salinity stress on S.lycopersicum plants (var. Elpida) due to NaCl accumulation in the nutrient solution of a soilless cultivation system. In this context, we established a control (0.5 mM) and five salinity treatments of 5.0, 10.0, 15.0, 20.0 mM NaCl, with three tomato plants (replications) per treatment, resulting in a total number of 18 S.lycopersicum plants. During the experiment, multispectral images (bands 460, 540, 630, 850, and 980 nm) were obtained at three stages of plant development (30, 60, and 90 days after transplant) using a MUSES9-MS sensor. For each multispectral image, four spectral indices (NDVI, OSAVI, LWSI and GOSAVI) were calculated. Although, the statistical analysis of the results reveal low sensitivity to the increasing salinity at early sampling stage (60 DAT), during the third sampling stage (120 DAT) all spectral indicators demonstrate significant sensitivity for treatments over 10.0 mM NaCl.

References

Daliakopoulos, I.N., Apostolakis, A., Wagner, K., Deligianni, A., Koutskoudis, D., Stamatakis, A., Tsanis, I.K., 2019. Effectiveness of Trichoderma harzianum in soil and yield conservation of tomato crops under saline irrigation. Catena 175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.12.009

Malash, N.M., Ali, F.A., Fatahalla, M.A., A. khatab, E., Hatem, M.K., Tawfic, S., 2008. Response of tomato to irrigation with saline water applied by different irrigation methods and water management stratigies. Int. J. Plant Prod. 2, 101–116.

Acknowledgements
This research has been co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH-CREATE-INNOVATE (project codes: T1EDK-04171)

How to cite: Papadimitriou, D., Daliakopoulos, I., Constantinopoulos, C., Manios, T., and Kosmopoulos, D.: Monitoring Solanum lycopersicum var. Elpida salinity stress using multispectral imaging, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12997, 2022.

EGU22-13446 | Presentations | HS8.1.8

Water harvesting in the Jordanian Badia: Trade-offs between micro and macro structures 

Mira Haddad, Geert Sterk, Jasper Goos, Stefan Strohmeier, and Job de Vries

The Jordanian Badia is a desert region that covers roughly 90% of Jordan. Average annual rainfall in the Badia is below 200 mm and is only occurring during the winter months (Nov – Feb). Despite the dry conditions the Badia it is a vital region to the country, especially for ago-pastoralist communities. Over the past decades unsustainable land management and especially overgrazing have resulted in reduced vegetation cover, soil degradation, and loss of biodiversity. Rainwater harvesting structures are used to regenerate soils, improve vegetation cover and allow barley production in local depressions. Two types of water harvesting structures are currently tested in experimental catchments.

The first type is the Vallerani micro water harvesting structure. A Vallerani is constructed along a hillslope contour and consist of a ridge and furrow. The interspace area between two Vallerani’s is the surface runoff collection area. Inside the furrow native shrubs (Atriplex halimus) are planted and provide fodder for livestock. Vallerani structures are simple and cheap to construct, reduce soil erosion, conserve moisture and stimulate vegetation cover. The second type of rainwater harvesting is the Marab, which is a macro-scale water harvesting technique. A Marab consists of a series of earthen dams that are constructed parallel in a local depression. Surface water from a wadi enters at the upstream end in the Marab and is forced to flow in a zig-zag pattern around the constructed dams. The flow speed of the surface water is slowed down which results in enhanced infiltration. The stored water in the soil is used to grow a barley crop in the interspaces between the constructed dams. Apart from conserving moisture, Marabs retain sediments and help to reduce flash floods in the Badia.

When Vallarani’s and a Marab are both constructed in one catchment there is a trade-off between the two structures. The more Vallerani’s are implemented on hillslopes the less water will flow towards the downstream Marab. In this study modelling was used to optimize the location and number of Vallerani structures and quantify the available water running to the Marab in an experimental catchment. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for this purpose. Rainfall, discharge and soil data were collected from the field during the 2018/2019 rainy season. The calibrated model showed good performance for large events but underestimated smaller events. A 30 year run was made, with and without Vallerani structures. Increasing the number and area of Vallerani structures from zero to the maximum decreased the number of significant runoff events by 45.3%, and the total discharge reaching the Marab by 36.2%. Using SWAT, the number and locations of the Vallerani’s were optimized to ensure that the Marab would receive enough water, while maximizing the number of hillslope water harvesting structures. It is concluded that implementation of Vallerani’s in sub-watersheds that produce low amounts of surface runoff results in most vegetation cover on hillslopes, while allowing sufficient barley production in the Marab.

How to cite: Haddad, M., Sterk, G., Goos, J., Strohmeier, S., and de Vries, J.: Water harvesting in the Jordanian Badia: Trade-offs between micro and macro structures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13446, 2022.

EGU22-1024 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

Efficiency and synergy of simple protective measures against COVID-19: Masks, ventilation and more 

Ulrich Pöschl, Yafang Cheng, Frank Helleis, Thomas Klimach, and Hang Su

The public and scientific discourse on how to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic is often focused on the impact of individual protective measures, in particular on vaccination. In view of changing virus variants and conditions, however, it seems not clear if vaccination or any other protective measure alone may suffice to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Accounting for both droplet and aerosol transmission, we investigated the effectiveness and synergies of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions like masking, distancing & ventilation, testing & isolation, and contact reduction as a function of compliance in the population. For realistic conditions, we find that it would be difficult to contain highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants by any individual measure. Instead, we show how multiple synergetic measures have to be combined to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) below unity for different basic reproduction numbers ranging from the SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain up to measles-like values (R0 = 3 to 18).

Face masks are well-established and effective preventive measures against the transmission of respiratory viruses and diseases, but their effectiveness for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission is still under debate. We show that variations in mask efficacy can be explained by different regimes of virus abundance (virus-limited vs. virus-rich) and are related to population-average infection probability and reproduction number. Under virus-limited conditions, both surgical and FFP2/N95 masks are effective at reducing the virus spread, and universal masking with correctly applied FFP2/N95 masks can reduce infection probabilities by factors up to 100 or more (source control and wearer protection).

Masks are particularly effective in combination with synergetic measures like ventilation and distancing, which can reduce the viral load in breathing air by factors up to 10 or more and help maintaining virus-limited conditions. Extensive experimental studies, measurement data, numerical calculations, and practical experience show that window ventilation supported by exhaust fans (i.e. mechanical extract ventilation) is a simple and highly effective measure to increase air quality in classrooms. This approach can be used against the aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Mechanical extract ventilation (MEV) is very well suited not only for combating the COVID19 pandemic but also for sustainably ventilating schools in an energy-saving, resource-efficient, and climate-friendly manner.  Distributed extract ducts or hoods can be flexibly reused, removed and stored, or combined with other devices (e.g. CO2 sensors), which is easy due to the modular approach and low-cost materials (www.ventilationmainz.de).

The scientific findings and approaches outlined above can be used to design, communicate, and implement efficient strategies for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.

References:

Cheng et al., Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, Science, 372, 1439, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg6296 

Klimach et al., The Max Planck Institute for Chemistry mechanical extract ventilation (MPIC-MEV) system against aerosol transmission of COVID-19, Zenodo, 2021, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5802048  

Su et al., Synergetic measures to contain highly transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, medRxiv, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.24.21266824

 

How to cite: Pöschl, U., Cheng, Y., Helleis, F., Klimach, T., and Su, H.: Efficiency and synergy of simple protective measures against COVID-19: Masks, ventilation and more, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1024, 2022.

EGU22-1890 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

Possible effect of the particulate matter (PM) pollution on the Covid-19 spread in southern Europe 

Jean-Baptiste Renard, Gilles Delaunay, Eric Poincelet, and Jérémy Surcin

The time evolution of the Covid-19 death cases exhibits several distinct episodes since the start of the pandemic early in 2020. We propose an analysis of several Southern Europe regions that highlights how the beginning of each episode correlates with a strong increase in the concentrations level of pollution particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5). Following the original PM2.5 spike, the evolution of the Covid-19 spread depends on the (partial) lockdowns and vaccinate races, thus the highest level of confidence in correlation can only be achieved when considering the beginning of each episode. The analysis is conducted for the 2020-2022 period at different locations: the Lombardy region (Italy), where we consider the mass concentrations measurements obtained by air quality monitoring stations (µg.m-3), and the cities of Paris (France), Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain) using in-situ measurements counting particles (cm-3) in the 0.5-2.5 µm size range obtained with hundreds of mobile aerosol counters. The particle counting methodology is more suitable to evaluate the possible correlation between PM pollution and Covid-19 spread because we can better estimate the concentration of the submicronic particles compared with a mass concentration measurement methodology which would result in skewed results due to larger particles. Very fine particles of lesser than one micron go deeper inside the body and can even cross the alveolar-capillary barrier, subsequently attacking most of the organs through the bloodstream, potentially triggering a pejorative systemic inflammatory reaction. The rapidly increasing number of deaths attributed to the covid-19 starts between 2 weeks and one month after PM events that often occur in winter, which is coherent with the virus incubation time and its lethal outcome. We suggest that the pollution by the submicronic particles alters the pulmonary alveoli status and thus significantly increase the lungs susceptibility to the virus.

How to cite: Renard, J.-B., Delaunay, G., Poincelet, E., and Surcin, J.: Possible effect of the particulate matter (PM) pollution on the Covid-19 spread in southern Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1890, 2022.

In the past two years, numerous advances have been made in the ability to predict the progress of COVID19 epidemics.  Basic forecasting of the health state of a population with respect to a given disease is based on the well-known family of SIR models (Susceptible Infected Recovered). The models used in epidemiology were based on deterministic behavior, so the epidemiological picture tomorrow depends exclusively on the numbers recorded today. The forecasting shortcomings of the deterministic SEIR models previously used in epidemiology were difficult to highlight before the advent of COVID19  because epidemiology was mostly not concerned with real-time forecasting.  From the first wave of COVID19 infections, the limitations of using deterministic models were immediately evident: to use them, one should know the exact status of the population and this knowledge was limited by the ability to process swabs. Futhermore, there is an intrinsic variability of the dynamics which depends on age, sex, characteristics of the virus, variants and vaccination status. 

Our main contribution was to define a SEIR model that assumes these parameters as constants could not be used for reliable predictions of COVID19 pandemis and that more realistic forecasts can be obtained by adding fluctuations in the model. The fluctuations in the dynamics of the virus induced by these factors do not just add variaiblity around the deterministic solution of the SIR models, the also introduce another timing of the pandemics which influence the epidemic peak. With our model we have found that even with a basic reprdocution number Rt less than 1 local epidemic peaks can occur that resume over a certain period of time. 

Introducing noise and uncertainty allows  to define a range of possible scenarios, instead of making a single prediction. This is what happens when we replace the deterministic approach, with a probabilistic approach. The probabilistic models used to predict the progress of the Covid-19 epidemic are conceptually very similar to those used by climatologists, to imagine future environmental scenarios based on the actions taken in the present.  As human beings we can intervene in both systems. Based on the choices we will make and the fluctuations of the systems, we can predict different responses. In the context of the emergency that we faced, the collaboration between different scientific fields was therefore fundamental, which, by comparing themselves, were able to provide more accurate answers. Furthermore, a close collaboration has arisen between epidemiologists and climatologists. A beautiful synergy that can give a great help to society in a difficult moment.

References

-Faranda, Castillo, Hulme, Jezequel, Lamb, Sato & Thompson (2020). Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science30(5), 051107.

-Alberti & Faranda (2020).  Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation90, 105372.

-Faranda & Alberti (2020). Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science30(11), 111101.

-Faranda, Alberti, Arutkin, Lembo, Lucarini. (2021).  Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science31(4), 041105.

-Arutkin, Faranda, Alberti, & Vallée. (2021). Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science31(10), 101107.

How to cite: Faranda, D.: How concepts and ideas from Statistical and Climate physics improve epidemiological modelling of the COVID 19 pandemics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2801, 2022.

EGU22-3690 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

Improving the conservation of virus infectivity during airborne exposure experiments 

Ghislain Motos, Kalliopi Violaki, Aline Schaub, Shannon David, Tamar Kohn, and Athanasios Nenes

Recurrent epidemic outbreaks such as the seasonal flu and the ongoing COVID-19 are disastrous events to our societies both in terms of fatalities, social and educational structures, and financial losses. The difficulty to control COVID-19 spread in the last two years has brought evidence that basic mechanisms of transmission for such pathogens are still poorly understood.

             Three different routes of virus transmission are known: direct contact (e.g. through handshakes) and indirect contact through fomites; ballistic droplets produced by speaking, sneezing or coughing; and airborne transmission through aerosols which can also be produced by normal breathing. The latter route, which has long been ignored, even by the World Health Organization during the COVID-19 pandemics, now appears to play the predominant role in the spread of airborne diseases (e.g. Chen et al., 2020).

             Further scientific research thus needs to be conducted to better understand the mechanistic processes that lead to inactivate airborne viruses, as well as the environmental conditions which favour these processes. In addition to modelling and epidemiological studies, chamber experiments, where viruses are exposed to various types of humidity, temperature and/or UV dose, offer to simulate everyday life conditions for virus transmission. However, the current standard instrumental solutions for virus aerosolization to the chamber and sampling from it use high fluid forces and recirculation which can cause infectivity losses (Alsved et al., 2020) and also do not compare to the relevant production of airborne aerosol in the respiratory tract.

             In this study, we utilized two of the softest aerosolization and sampling techniques: the sparging liquid aerosol generator (SLAG, CH Technologies Inc., Westwood, NJ, USA), which forms aerosol from a liquid suspension by bubble bursting, thus mimicking natural aerosol formation in wet environments (e.g. the respiratory system but also lakes, sea, toilets, etc…); and the viable virus aerosol sampler (BioSpot-VIVAS, Aerosol Devices Inc., Fort Collins, CO, USA), which grows particle via water vapour condensation to gently collect them down to a few nanometres in size. We characterized these systems with particle sizers and biological analysers using non-pathogenic viruses such as bacteriophages suspended in surrogate lung fluid and artificial saliva. We compared the size distribution of produced aerosol from these suspensions against similar distributions generated with standard nebulizers, and assess the ability of these devices to produce aerosol that much more resembles that produced in human exhaled air. We also assess the conservation of viral infectivity with the VIVAS vs. conventional biosamplers.

 

Acknowledgment

 

We acknowledge the IVEA project in the framework of SINERGIA grant (Swiss National Science Foundation)

 

References

 

Alsved, M., Bourouiba, L., Duchaine, C., Löndahl, J., Marr, L. C., Parker, S. T., Prussin, A. J., and Thomas, R. J. (2020): Natural sources and experimental generation of bioaerosols: Challenges and perspectives, Aerosol Science and Technology, 54, 547–571.

Chen, W., Zhang, N., Wei, J., Yen, H.-L., and Li, Y. (2020): Short-range airborne route dominates exposure of respiratory infection during close contact, Building and Environment, 176, 106859.

How to cite: Motos, G., Violaki, K., Schaub, A., David, S., Kohn, T., and Nenes, A.: Improving the conservation of virus infectivity during airborne exposure experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3690, 2022.

EGU22-3936 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

COVID-19 effects on measurements of the Earth Magnetic Field in the urbanized area of Brest 

Jean-Francois Oehler, Alexandre Leon, Sylvain Lucas, André Lusven, and Gildas Delachienne

COVID-19 effects on measurements of the Earth Magnetic Field in the urbanized area of Brest (Brittany, France)

Jean-François OEHLER1, Sylvain LUCAS1, Alexandre LEON1, André LUSVEN1, Gildas DELACHIENNE1

1Shom (Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine), Brest, France

 

Since September 2019, Shom’s Magnetic Station (SMS) has been deployed in the north neighbourhoods of the medium-sized city of Brest (Brittany, France, about 210,000 inhabitants). SMS continuously measures the intensity of the Earth Magnetic Field (EMF) with an absolute Overhauser sensor. The main goal of SMS is to derive local external variations of the EMF mainly due to solar activity. These variations consist of low and high parasitic frequencies in magnetic data and need to be corrected. Magnetic mobile stations or permanent observatories are usually installed in isolated areas, far from human activities and electromagnetic effects. It is clearly not the case for SMS, mainly for practical reasons of security, maintenance and data accessibility. However, despite its location in an urbanized area, SMS stays the far western reference station for processing marine magnetic data collected along the Atlantic and Channel coasts of France.

The corona pandemic has had unexpected consequences on the quality of measurements collected by SMS. For example, during the French first lockdown between March and May 2020, the noise level significantly decreased of about 50%. Average standard deviations computed on 1 Hz-time series over 1 min. periods fell from about 1.5 nT to 0.8 nT. This more stable behavior of SMS is clearly correlated with the drop of human activities and traffic in the city of Brest.

 

Keywords: Shom’s Magnetic Station (SMS), Earth Magnetic Field, COVID19.

 

How to cite: Oehler, J.-F., Leon, A., Lucas, S., Lusven, A., and Delachienne, G.: COVID-19 effects on measurements of the Earth Magnetic Field in the urbanized area of Brest, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3936, 2022.

Economic activities and the associated emissions have significantly declined during the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which has created a natural experiment to assess the impact of the emitted precursor control policy on ozone (O3) pollution. In this study, we utilized comprehensive satellite, ground-level observations, and source-oriented chemical transport modeling to investigate the O3 variations during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Here, we found that the significant elevated O3 in the North China Plain (40%) and Yangtze River Delta (35%) were mainly attributed to the enhanced atmospheric oxidation capacity (AOC) in these regions, associated with the meteorology and emission reduction during lockdown. Besides, O3 formation regimes shifted from VOC-limited regimes to NOx-limited and transition regimes with the decline of NOx during lockdown. We suggest that future O3 control policies should comprehensively consider the effects of AOC on the O3 elevation and coordinated regulations of the O3 precursor emissions.

How to cite: Wang, P., Zhu, S., and Zhang, H.: Comprehensive Insights Into O3 Changes During the COVID-19 From O3 Formation Regime and Atmospheric Oxidation Capacity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4170, 2022.

EGU22-5126 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

Nature-based Solutions in actions: improving landscape connectivity during the COVID-19 

Yangzi Qiu, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer

In the last few decades, Nature-based Solutions (NBS) has become widely considered a sustainable development strategy for the development of urban environments. Assessing the performances of NBS is significant for understanding their efficiency in addressing a large range of natural and societal challenges, such as climate change, ecosystem services and human health. With the rapid onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the inner relationship between humans and nature becomes apparent. However, the current catchment management mainly focuses on reducing hydro-meteorological and/or climatological risks and improving urban climate resilience. This single-dimensional management seems insufficient when facing epidemics, and multi-dimensional management (e.g., reduce zoonosis) is necessary. With this respect, policymakers pay more attention to NBS. Hence, it is significant to increase the connectivity of the landscape to improve the ecosystem services and reduce the health risks from COVID-19 with the help of NBS.

This study takes the Guyancourt catchment as an example. The selected catchment is located in the Southwest suburb of Paris, with a total area of around 5.2 km2. The ArcGIS software is used to assess the patterns of structural landscape connectivity, and the heterogeneous spatial distribution of current green spaces over the catchment is quantified with the help of the scale-independent indicator of fractal dimension. To quantify opportunities to increase landscape connectivity over the catchment, a least-cost path approach to map potential NBS links urban green spaces through vacant parcels, alleys, and smaller green spaces. Finally, to prioritise these potential NBS in multiscale, a new scale-independent indicator within the Universal Multifractal framework is proposed in this study.

The results indicated that NBS can effectively improve the connectivity of the landscape and has the potential to reduce the physical and mental risks caused by COVID-19. Overall, this study proposed a scale-independent approach for enhancing the multiscale connectivity of the NBS network in urban areas and providing quantitative suggestions for on-site redevelopment.

How to cite: Qiu, Y., Tchiguirinskaia, I., and Schertzer, D.: Nature-based Solutions in actions: improving landscape connectivity during the COVID-19, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5126, 2022.

EGU22-5150 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

The associations between environmental factors and COVID-19: early evidence from China 

Xia Meng, Ye Yao, Weibing Wang, and Haidong Kan

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic, which was first reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, has been becoming one of the most important public health issues worldwide. Previous studies have shown the importance of weather variables and air pollution in the transmission or prognosis of infectious diseases, including, but not limited to, influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic, there was intense debate and inconsistent results on whether environmental factors were associated with the spread and prognosis of COVID-19. Therefore, our team conducted a series studies to explore the associations between atmospheric parameters (temperature, humidity, UV radiation, particulate matters and nitrogen dioxygen) and the COVID-19 (transmission ability and prognosis) at the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic with data in early 2020 in China and worldwide. Our results showed that meteorological conditions (temperature, humidity and UV radiation) had no significant associations with cumulative incidence rate or R0 of COVID-19 based on data from 224 Chinese cities, or based on data of 202 locations of 8 countries before March 9, 2020, suggesting that the spread ability of COVID-19 among public population would not significantly change with increasing temperature or UV radiation or changes of humidity. Moreover, we found that particulate matter pollution significantly associated with case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in 49 Chinese cities based on data before April 12, 2020, indicating that air pollution might exacerbate negative prognosis of COVID-19. Our studies provided an environmental perspective for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19.

How to cite: Meng, X., Yao, Y., Wang, W., and Kan, H.: The associations between environmental factors and COVID-19: early evidence from China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5150, 2022.

EGU22-9213 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

The Effects of COVID-19 Lockdown on Air Quality and Health in India and Finland 

Shubham Sharma, Behzad Heibati, Jagriti Suneja, and Sri Harsha Kota

The COVID-19 lockdowns worldwide provided a prospect to evaluate the impacts of restricted movements and emissions on air quality. In this study, we analyze the data obtained from the ground-based observation stations for six air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO2, O3 and SO2) and meteorological parameters from March 25th to May 31st in 22 cities representative of five regions of India and from March 16th to May 14th in 21 districts of Finland from 2017 to 2020. The NO2 concentrations dropped significantly during all phases apart from East India's exception during phase 1. O3 concentrations for all four phases in West India reduced significantly, with the highest during Phase 2 (~38%). The PM2.5 concentration nearly halved across India during all phases except South India, where a very marginal reduction (2%) was observed during Phase 4. SO2 (~31%) and CO (~41%) concentrations also reduced noticeably in South India and North India during all the phases. The air temperature rose by ~10% (average) during all the phases across India when compared to 2017-2019. In Finland, NO2 concentration reduced substantially in 2020. Apart from Phase 1, the concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 reduced markedly in all the Phases across Finland. Also, O3 and SO2 concentrations stayed within the permissible limits in the study period for all four years but were highest in 2017 in Finland, while the sulfurous compounds (OSCs) levels increased during all the phases across Finland. The changes in the mobility patterns were also assessed and were observed to have reduced significantly during the lockdown. The benefits in the overall mortality due to the reduction in the concentrations of PM2.5 have also been estimated for India and Finland. Therefore, this research illustrates the effectiveness of lockdown and provides timely policy suggestions to the regulators to implement interventions to improve air quality.

How to cite: Sharma, S., Heibati, B., Suneja, J., and Kota, S. H.: The Effects of COVID-19 Lockdown on Air Quality and Health in India and Finland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9213, 2022.

EGU22-9812 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

Changes in Global Urban Air Quality due to Large Scale Disruptions of Activity 

Will Drysdale, Charlotte Stapleton, and James Lee

Since 2020, countries around the world have implemented various interventions in response to a global public health crisis. The interventions included restrictions on mobility, promotion of working from home and the limiting of local and international travel. These, along with other behavioural changes from people in response to the crisis affected various sources of air pollution, not least the transport sector. Whilst the method through which these changes were implemented is not something to be repeated, understanding the effects of the changes will help direct policy for further improving air quality. 

 

We analysed NOx, O3 and PM2.5 data from many 100s of air quality monitoring sites in urban areas around the world, and examined 2020 in relation to the previous 5 years. The data were examined alongside mobility metrics to contextualise the magnitude of changes and were viewed through the lens of World Health Organisation guidelines as a metric to link air quality changes with human health. Interestingly, reductions in polluting activities did not lead to wholesale improvements in air quality by all metrics due to the more complex processes involved with tropospheric O3 production.

 

How to cite: Drysdale, W., Stapleton, C., and Lee, J.: Changes in Global Urban Air Quality due to Large Scale Disruptions of Activity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9812, 2022.

EGU22-11475 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

Scaling Dynamics of Growth Phenomena: from Epidemics to the Resilience of Urban Systems 

Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia and Daniel Schertzer

Defining optimal COVID-19 mitigation strategies remains at the top of public health agendas around the world. It requires a better understanding and refined modeling of the intrinsic dynamics of the epidemic. The common root of most models of epidemics is a cascade paradigm that dates to their emergence with Bernoulli and d’Alembert, which predated Richardson’s famous quatrain on the cascade of atmospheric dynamics. However, unlike other cascade processes, the characteristic times of a cascade of contacts that spread infection and the corresponding rates are believed to be independent on the cascade level. This assumption prevents having cascades of scaling contamination.

In this presentation, we theoretically argue and empirically demonstrate that the intrinsic dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic during the phases of growth and decline, is a cascade with a rather universal scaling, the statistics of which differ significantly from those of an exponential process. This result first confirms the possibility of having a higher prevalence of intrinsic dynamics, resulting in slower but potentially longer phases of growth and decline. It also shows that a fairly simple transformation connects the two phases. It thus explains the frequent deviations of epidemic models rather aligned with exponential growth and it makes it possible to distinguish an epidemic decline from a change of scaling in the observed growth rates. The resulting variability across spatiotemporal scales is a major feature that requires alternative approaches with practical consequences for data analysis and modelling. We illustrate some of these consequences using the now famous database from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

Due to the significant increase over time of available data, we are no longer limited to deterministic calculus. The non-negligible fluctuations with respect to a power-law can be easily explained within the framework of stochastic multiplicative cascades. These processes are exponentials of a stochastic generators Γ(t), whose stochastic differentiation remains quite close to the deterministic one, basically adding a supplementary term σdt to the differential of the generator. When the generator Γ(t) is Gaussian, σ is the “quadratic variation”. Extensions to Lévy stable generators, which are strongly non-Gaussian, have also been considered. To study the stochastic nature of the cascade generator, as well as how it respects the above-mentioned symmetry between the phases of growth and decline, we use the universal multifractals. They provide the appropriate framework for joint scaling analysis of vector-valued time series and for introducing location and other dependencies. This corresponds to enlarging the domain, on which the process and its generator are defined, as well as their co-domain, on which they are valued. These clarifications should make it possible to improve epidemic models and their statistical analysis.

More fundamentally, this study points out to a new class of stochastic multiplicative cascade models of epidemics in space and time, therefore not limited to compartments. By their generality, these results pave the way for a renewed approach to epidemics, and more generally growth phenomena, towards more resilient development and management of our urban systems.

How to cite: Tchiguirinskaia, I. and Schertzer, D.: Scaling Dynamics of Growth Phenomena: from Epidemics to the Resilience of Urban Systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11475, 2022.

EGU22-11584 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

Geophysicists facing Covid-19 

Daniel Schertzer, Vijay Dimri, and Klaus Fraedrich

There have been a series of sessions on the generic theme of “Covid-19 and Geosciences” on the occasion of AGU, AOGS and EGU conferences, since 2020 including during the first lockdown that required a very fast adaptation to unprecedented health measures. We think it is interesting and useful to have an overview of these sessions and try to capture what could be the lessons to learn.

To our knowledge, the very first such session was the Great e-Debate “Epidemics, Urban Systems and Geosciences” (https://hmco.enpc.fr/news-and-events/great-e-debate-epidemics-urban-systems-and-geosciences-invitations-and-replays/). It was virtually organised with the help of the UNESCO UniTwin CS-DC (Complex Systems Digital Campus) thanks to its expertise in organising e-conferences long before the pandemic and the first health measures. This would not have been possible without the strong personal involvement of its chair Paul Bourgine. It was held on Monday 4th May on the occasion of the 2020 EGU conference, which became virtual under the title “EGU2020: Sharing Geoscience Online” (4-8 May 2020). The Great e-Debate did not succeed in being granted as an official session of this conference, despite the fact that the technology used (Blue Button) by the Great e-Debate was much more advanced. Nevertheless, it was clearly an extension of the EGU session ITS2.10 / NP3.3: “Urban Geoscience Complexity: Transdisciplinarity for the Urban Transition”. 

Thanks to a later venue (7-11 December 2020) and the existence of a GeoHealth section of the AGU, the organisation of several regular sessions for the 2020 Fall Meeting was easier. For EGU 2021 (19-30 April 2021), a sub-part of the  inter- transdisciplinary sessions ITS1 “Geosciences and health during the Covid pandemic”, a Union Session US “Post-Covid Geosciences” and a Townhall meeting TM10 “Covid-19 and other epidemics: engagement of the geoscience communities” were organised. A brief of the special session SS02 “Covid-19 and Geoscience” of the (virtual) 18th Annual Meeting of AOGS (1-6 August 2021) is included in the proceedings of this conference (in press). 

We will review materials generated by these sessions that rather show a shift from a focus on the broad range of scientific responses to the pandemic, to which geoscientists could contribute with their specific expertise (from data collection to theoretical modelling), to an expression of concerns about the broad impacts on the geophysical communities that appear to be increasingly long-term and constitute a major transformation of community functioning (e.g., again data collection, knowledge transfer).

How to cite: Schertzer, D., Dimri, V., and Fraedrich, K.: Geophysicists facing Covid-19, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11584, 2022.

EGU22-11747 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

To act or not to act. Predictability of intervention and non-intervention in health and environment 

Michalis Chiotinis, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Theano Illiopoulou, Nikos Mamassis, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the question of the need for draconian interventions before concrete evidence for their need and efficacy is presented. Such interventions could be critical if necessary for avoiding threats, or a threat in themselves if harms caused by the intervention are significant.

The interdisciplinary nature of such issues as well as the unpredictability of various local responses considering their potential for global impact further complicate the question.

The study aims to review the available evidence and discuss the problem of weighting the predictability of interventions vis-à-vis their intended results against the limits of knowability regarding complex non-linear systems and thus the predictability in non-interventionist approaches.

How to cite: Chiotinis, M., Dimitriadis, P., Illiopoulou, T., Mamassis, N., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: To act or not to act. Predictability of intervention and non-intervention in health and environment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11747, 2022.

EGU22-12302 | Presentations | ITS3.5/NP3.1

COVID-19 waves: intrinsic and extrinsic spatio-temporal dynamics over Italy 

Tommaso Alberti and Davide Faranda

COVID-19 waves, mostly due to variants, still require timely efforts from governments based on real-time forecasts of the epidemics via dynamical and statistical models. Nevertheless, less attention has been paid in investigating and characterizing the intrinsic and extrinsic spatio-temporal dynamics of the epidemic spread. The large amount of data, both in terms of data points and observables, allows us to perform a detailed characteristic of the epidemic waves and their relation with different sources as testing capabilities, vaccination policies, and restriction measures.

By taking as a case-study the epidemic evolution of COVID-19 across Italian regions we perform the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) analysis to investigate its spatio-temporal dynamics. We identified a similar number of temporal components within all Italian regions that can be linked to both intrisic and extrinsic source mechanisms as the efficiency of restriction measures, testing strategies and performances, and vaccination policies. We also identified mutual scale-dependent relations within different regions, thus suggesting an additional source mechanisms related to the delayed spread of the epidemics due to travels and movements of people. Our results are also extremely helpful for providing long term extrapolation of epidemics counts by taking into account both the intrinsically and the extrinsically non-linear nature of the underlying dynamics. 

How to cite: Alberti, T. and Faranda, D.: COVID-19 waves: intrinsic and extrinsic spatio-temporal dynamics over Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12302, 2022.

Black carbon (BC) not only warms the atmosphere but also affects human health. The nationwide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic led to a major reduction in human activity during the past thirty years. Here, the concentration of BC in the urban, urban-industry, suburb, and rural areas of a megacity Hangzhou were monitored using a multi-wavelength Aethalometer to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on BC emissions. The citywide BC decreased by 44% from 2.30 μg/m3 to 1.29 μg/m3 following the COVID-19 lockdown period. The source apportionment based on the Aethalometer model shows that vehicle emission reduction responded to BC decline in the urban area and biomass burning in rural areas around the megacity had a regional contribution of BC. We highlight that the emission controls of vehicles in urban areas and biomass burning in rural areas should be more efficient in reducing BC in the megacity Hangzhou.

How to cite: Li, W. and Xu, L.: Responses of concentration and sources of black carbon in a megacity during the COVID-19 pandemic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12907, 2022.

For many of us, the Covid-19 pandemic brought long-time scientific interest in epidemiology to the point of involvement. An important aspect of the evolution of acute respiratory epidemics is their seasonal character. Our toolkit for handling seasonal phenomena in the geosciences has increased in the last dozen years or so with the development and application of concepts and methods from the theory of nonautonomous and random dynamical systems (NDSs and RDSs). In this talk, I will briefly:

  • Introduce some elements of these two closely related theories.

  • Illustrate the two with an application to seasonal effects within a chaotic model of the El

    Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

  • Introduce to a geoscientific audience a simple epidemiological “box” model of the

    Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) type.

  • Summarize NDS results for a chaotic SEIR model with seasonal effects.

  • Mention the utility of data assimilation (DA) tools in the parameter identification and

    prediction of an epidemic’s evolution

    References

    - Chekroun, M D, Ghil M, Neelin J D (2018) Pullback attractor crisis in a delay differential ENSO model, in Nonlinear Advances in Geosciences, A. Tsonis (Ed.), Springer, pp. 1–33, doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7

    - Crisan D, Ghil, M (2022) Asymptotic behavior of the forecast–assimilation process with unstable dynamics, Chaos, in preparation

    - Faranda D, Castillo I P, Hulme O, Jezequel A, Lamb J S, Sato Y, Thompson E L (2020) Asymptotic estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection counts and their sensitivity to stochastic perturbation<? Chaos, 30(5): 051107, doi: 10.1063/5.0009454

    - Ghil, M (2019) A century of nonlinearity in the geosciences. Earth & Space Science 6:1007–1042, doi:10.1029/2019EA000599

    - Kovács, T (2020) How can contemporary climate research help understand epidemic dynamics? Ensemble approach and snapshot attractors. J. Roy. Soc. Interface, 17(173):20200648, doi: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0648

How to cite: Ghil, M.: Time-dependent forcing in the geosciences and in epidemiology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13522, 2022.

Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed upon a monotonic decay needs a different description from that of the standard chaotic dynamics. The concept of snapshot attractors and their natural distribution has been adopted from the field of the latest climate change research. This shows the importance of the finite-time chaotic effect and ensemble interpretation while investigating the spread of a disease. By defining statistical measures over the ensemble, we can interpret the internal variability of the
epidemic as the onset of complex dynamics—even for those values of contact parameters where originally regular behaviour is expected. We argue that anomalous outbreaks of the infectious class cannot die out until transient chaos is presented in the system. Nevertheless, this fact becomes apparent by using an ensemble approach rather than a single trajectory representation. These findings are applicable generally in explicitly time-dependent epidemic systems regardless of parameter values and time scales.

How to cite: Kovács, T.: How can contemporary climate research help understand epidemic dynamics? -- Ensemble approach and snapshot attractors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13534, 2022.

CL4 – Climate studies across timescales

EGU22-234 | Presentations | CL4.1

Modulation of Dry and Wet Period Temperatures in India 

Anagha Prabhakar and Subhasis Mitra

Temperature-based events such as heatwaves and compound dry hot extremes impact the socio-economic sectors of a nation. In this study, the differential rates of temperature intensification across different seasons and regions in India coupled with dry/ wet climatologies are studied. The analysis is done for both historical observations and future CMIP6 simulations. Further, the temperature intensification rates were linked to established atmospheric feedback mechanisms. Results show that observed temperature intensification rates are positive/negative during dry/wet climatology relative to average climatology. Analysis of feedback mechanisms showed that cooling temperature trends are associated with a decrease in atmospheric aridity (vapor pressure deficit) and an increase in relative humidity. While in southern India, temperature trends are similar for all three climatologies (average, dry, and wet), albeit with different rates of intensification, in northern India, the temperature intensification shows notable contrasting trends during dry and wet climatologies. The highly irrigated Indo-Gangetic Plain region in northern India is found to experience significant cooling temperature trends during dry climatology and these trends are much more prominent during the agricultural Rabi season. Climate change analysis using CMIP6 simulations indicates further exacerbation of temperatures across all regions in the Indian subcontinent and foresees an increased probability of compound extremes in the future.

How to cite: Prabhakar, A. and Mitra, S.: Modulation of Dry and Wet Period Temperatures in India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-234, 2022.

Measurements of global solar and net radiation fluxes were made above a grass-covered surface at DACCIWA site in a tropical location, Ile-Ife, southwest Nigeria for a period of three years (2017 - 2019). The radiation data sets were obtained from a four-component net radiometer (model NR01). Observations were made for cases of clear sky and cloudy conditions during the measurement period. The results showed considerable fluctuations of both radiation fluxes occurring during the period of measurements at the location. For clear sky conditions, the magnitudes of global and net radiation fluxes were higher than those observed for cloudy conditions due to attenuation by clouds and aerosols. For the period of observation, the highest radiation flux values occurred in 2018 while the lowest were observed in 2017. The daily surface albedo (α) values ranged from 0.16 to 0.22 at the site. Empirical relationships obtained for global solar and net radiation are  RN = 0.754 RG – 17.4 Wm-2 and  RN = 0.657 RG – 32.7 Wm-2 for wet and dry seasons respectively. Based on the empirical relationships, daily net and global solar radiation can be obtained when measurements like these are not available. Linear relationships between RN  and RG indicate that for all days (cloudy and clear sky conditions), average RN  is about 65 % of RG , and about 50 % of  RG for clear sky conditions at the location

How to cite: Ajao, A., Abiye, O., and Agboola, A.: Analysis of global and net radiation fluxes in relation to surface albedo at DACCIWA site in Ile-Ife, southwest Nigeria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1283, 2022.

EGU22-1292 | Presentations | CL4.1

Quantifying land-surface albedo feedback using Dansgaard-Oeschger events 

Mengmeng Liu, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison

Land-surface shortwave albedo is an important quantity in the energy budget of the Earth. Remotely sensed snow cover, maximum tree height and maximum fractional absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) explain 87% of the variation in present-day annual mean land surface albedo (weighted by the seasonal cycle of shortwave radiation) in a generalized linear model. We can therefore apply this model during Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) warming events during the last glacial period. We have already used these repeated, rapid (50–200 year), near-global climate-change events to provide new quantifications of Earth system feedbacks involving atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O. We now reconstruct maximum tree height and maximum fAPAR based on a new global compilation of pollen data covering the relevant time interval, combined with snow cover changes during simulated D-O events, in order to reconstruct global changes in radiative forcing due to changes in vegetation and snow cover – and thereby quantify the global land-surface albedo feedback.

How to cite: Liu, M., Prentice, I. C., and Harrison, S. P.: Quantifying land-surface albedo feedback using Dansgaard-Oeschger events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1292, 2022.

EGU22-1526 | Presentations | CL4.1

Interactions between land cover change and temperature-humidity variability on a global scale 

Anna Luisa Hemshorn de Sánchez, Bjorn Stevens, Paolo D’Odorico, and Nima Shokri

The change of land cover affects regional and global climate through the surface energy budget and the water cycle, which determine the interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. Land cover change not only affects the climate but is also influenced by it. The projected climate change and the occurrence of extreme climate events will profoundly affect the land cover, crop production, as well as water and food security. Yet, the complex interactions between land cover changes and climate variability are not fully understood. Previous studies have shown that land cover change influences the mean and extreme values of climate variables such as temperature. However, most research focused on specific types of land cover change such as deforestation or urbanisation and looked at only one climate variable (e.g., temperature). A comprehensive multivariate analysis relating multiple land cover changes and climate variables at the global scale is still missing. Here, we take an observation-based approach that analyses the complex interactions between different types of land cover change and the joint effect of temperature and humidity variability at the global scale. We analyse almost three decades of remotely sensed land cover and climate data to investigate the complex coupling between the patterns of different types of land cover change and the variability of temperature and relative humidity across the globe. Our analysis identifies hotspots of change on a global scale and correlations which will help to devise necessary action plans for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation measures crucial to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

How to cite: Hemshorn de Sánchez, A. L., Stevens, B., D’Odorico, P., and Shokri, N.: Interactions between land cover change and temperature-humidity variability on a global scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1526, 2022.

Managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions – so-called “natural” or “nature-based” climate solutions like reforestation and cover cropping - have growing public and private support. Despite this enthusiasm, the realizable benefits of these strategies, and unintended consequences to be avoided, are not well understood. In particular, land cover and management changes designed to affect carbon cycles will also impact water and energy cycles in ways that may or may not be climatically beneficial, but we lack systematic frameworks for assessing and valuing these “biophysical impacts.” Moreover, most of the existing observation-driven work on the topic has been limited to impacts on surface temperature; we still know relatively little about when and where modifications to surface temperature extend to the near-surface air temperature, which is arguably the more relevant target for climate adaptation. In this talk, I will describe a new approach for leveraging flux tower observations to understand the duality of surface and air temperature responses to land cover change. Then, using Eastern US reforestation as a case study, I will apply the approach together with analysis of remote sensing and meteorological data to demonstrate that over annual time scales, reforestation substantially lowers both surface and air temperature, due to canopy structural effects that enhance both sensible heat flux and latent heat flux. However, during heat waves when cooling benefits are most needed, divergent responses of sensible and latent heat fluxes between forested and non-forested ecosystems may reduce the local climate adaptation potential of reforestation.

How to cite: Novick, K.: The local climate adaptation potential of reforestation, and how it changes during heat waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2056, 2022.

EGU22-2915 | Presentations | CL4.1

Nowcasting Tracks of Severe Convective Storms in West Africa from Observations of Land Surface State 

Christopher M. Taylor, Cornelia Klein, Cheikh Dione, Douglas J. Parker, John Marsham, Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop, Jennifer Fletcher, Abdoul Aziz Saidou Chaibou, Dignon Bertin Nafissa, Valiyaveetil Shamsudheen Semeena, Steven Cole, and Seonaid Anderson

In tropical convective climates, where numerical weather prediction of rainfall has high uncertainty, nowcasting provides essential alerts of extreme events several hours ahead. In principle, short-term prediction of intense convective storms could benefit from knowledge of the slowly-evolving land surface state in regions where soil moisture controls surface fluxes. Here we explore how near-real time (NRT) satellite observations of the land surface and convective clouds can be combined to aid early warning of severe weather in the Sahel on time scales of up to 12 hours. Using Land Surface Temperature (LST) as a proxy for soil moisture deficit, we characterise the state of the surface energy balance in NRT. We identify the most convectively-active parts of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) from spatial filtering of cloud-top temperature imagery.

We find that predictive skill provided by LST data is maximised early in the rainy season, when soils are drier and vegetation less developed. Land-based skill in predicting intense convection extends well beyond the afternoon, with strong positive correlations between daytime LST and MCS activity persisting as far as the following morning in more arid conditions. For the Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (SWIFT) Forecasting Testbed event during September 2021, we developed a simple technique to translate LST data into NRT maps quantifying the likelihood of convection based solely on land state. We used these maps in combination with convective features to nowcast the tracks of existing MCSs, and predict likely new initiation locations. This is the first time to our knowledge that nowcasting tools based principally on land observations have been developed. The strong sensitivity of Sahelian MCSs to soil moisture, in combination with MCS life times of typically 6-18 hours, opens up the opportunity for nowcasting of hazardous weather well beyond what is possible from atmospheric observations alone, and could be applied elsewhere in the semi-arid tropics.

How to cite: Taylor, C. M., Klein, C., Dione, C., Parker, D. J., Marsham, J., Abdoulahat Diop, C., Fletcher, J., Saidou Chaibou, A. A., Nafissa, D. B., Semeena, V. S., Cole, S., and Anderson, S.: Nowcasting Tracks of Severe Convective Storms in West Africa from Observations of Land Surface State, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2915, 2022.

EGU22-4349 | Presentations | CL4.1

Assessing the variability of soil temperatures in Land Surface Models using outputs from the Soil Parameter Model Intercomparison Project (SP-MIP) 

Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Matthias Cuntz, Lukas Gudmundsson, Stephan Thober, Patrick C. McGuire, Hannah Bergner, Aaron Boone, Agnès Ducharne, Rich Ellis, Hyungjun Kim, Sujan Koirala, Dave Lawrence, Keith Oleson, Sean Swenson, Salma Tafasca, Philipp de Vrese, Sonia Seneviratne, Dani Or, and Harry Vereecken

Results: Soil temperature is a crucial variable in Land Surface Models (LSMs) because it affects the fractions of frozen and unfrozen water content in the soil. For example, getting the coupling between below-ground heat- and water transfer correct in LSMs is very important in permafrost regions because these are particularly sensitive to climate change. Poor predictions of the energy- and water balance in these regions will lead to large uncertainties in predicted carbon fluxes, and related land-atmosphere feedbacks. Also, simulated near-surface soil temperatures can be used to diagnose and explain model differences in skin temperatures and soil heat fluxes, both of which are pivotal in the prediction of the surface energy balance.

Soil temperature is generally under-researched as part of LSM intercomparisons. Here we present an analysis of the spatial distribution (including the vertical distribution along the soil profile) and seasonal evolution of soil temperature simulated by eight LSMs as part of the Soil Parameter Model Intercomparison Project (SP-MIP). We found large inter-model differences in key metrics of the annual soil temperature wave, including the amplitude, phase shift and damping depth, which were partly attributed to diversity in hydraulic as well as thermal soil properties. Soil layer discretisation also played a role.

Methods: Via manipulation of model soil hydraulic properties, and the soil texture inputs required to calculate these properties, controlled multi-model experiments have been conducted as part of SP-MIP, this MIP was originally proposed at the GEWEX-SoilWat workshop held in Leipzig (June 2016).

The model experiments closely followed the LS3MIP protocol (van den Hurk et al. 2016). Eight land models (CLM5, ISBA, JSBACH, JULES, MATSIRO, MATSIRO-GW, NOAH-MP and ORCHIDEE) were run globally on 0.5° with GSWP3 forcing, from 1980-2010, for vertically homogeneous soil columns. There were 4 model experiments, leading to 7 model runs: Experiment 1. Global soil hydraulic parameter maps provided by SP-MIP; Experiment 2. Soil-hydraulic parameters derived from common soil textural properties, provided by SP-MIP, using model-specific pedotransfer functions (PTFs); Experiment 3. Reference run with all models applying their default soil hydraulic settings (including their own soil maps to derive the parameters); Experiment 4: four runs using spatially uniform soil hydraulic parameters for the whole globe (loamy sand, loam, clay and silt) provided by SP-MIP.

Differences between the model experiments will allow the assessment of the inter-model variability that is introduced by the different stages of preparing model parameters. Soil parameters for Experiments 1 and soil textures for Experiment 2 at 0.5° resolution were prepared from dominant soil classes of the 0-5 cm layer of SoilGrids (Hengl et al. 2014) at 5 km resolution. Brooks and Corey hydraulic parameters come from Table 2 of Clapp and Hornberger (1978), Mualem-Van Genuchten hydraulic parameters are ROSETTA class average hydraulic parameters (Schaap et al. 2001), and soil textures are from Table 2 of Cosby et al. (1984). Experiments 4 a-d use the USDA soil classes, using the same PTFs for Brooks and Corey and Mualem-van Genuchten parameters as in Experiment 1.

How to cite: Verhoef, A., Zeng, Y., Cuntz, M., Gudmundsson, L., Thober, S., McGuire, P. C., Bergner, H., Boone, A., Ducharne, A., Ellis, R., Kim, H., Koirala, S., Lawrence, D., Oleson, K., Swenson, S., Tafasca, S., de Vrese, P., Seneviratne, S., Or, D., and Vereecken, H.: Assessing the variability of soil temperatures in Land Surface Models using outputs from the Soil Parameter Model Intercomparison Project (SP-MIP), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4349, 2022.

Natural processes within the Earth system have been shown to organise themselves to achieve a state of thermodynamic optimality. Here we test these physical principles for convective flux exchange within the surface – atmosphere system.  We propose an idealised modelling framework where the convective exchange is conceptualised as the outcome of a heat engine operated between the hotter Earth’s surface and the cooler atmosphere. We use the first and second law of thermodynamics in conjunction with the surface energy balance which give rise to thermodynamic constraints on turbulent flux exchange. This new constraint is associated with the maximum power that can be generated within the heat engine to sustain convective motion. We use daily radiative forcing from NASA-CERES dataset as the input to our approach and estimated the surface energy partitioning on land into turbulent fluxes and emitted longwave radiation. The former is closely related to convective exchange within the atmosphere driving the hydrologic cycling while the latter directly relates to the surface temperature of the Earth.  We compare our estimates of surface temperatures, latent and sensible heat fluxes with observation based datasets and found a very good agreement over land at a global scale. Our findings show that physical principles of thermodynamics alone can explain the surface energy partitioning to a large extent. We further show an application of this approach in removing the cloud radiative effects (CRE) from surface temperatures. We used clear-sky fluxes from the NASA-CERES dataset as a forcing to our thermodynamically constrained energy balance model and estimated "clear-sky" temperatures. These temperatures removes the effect of radiative cooling by clouds on surface temperatures and can be used as useful variable to infer the hydrological sensitivity from observations. Our work implies that thermodynamically constrained idealised models can be used to identify the dominant physical controls on climate system to better understand land-atmosphere interactions and climate sensitivities.

How to cite: Ghausi, S. and Kleidon, A.: How much of the surface energy partitioning can be explained by controls imposed by thermodynamics?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4528, 2022.

EGU22-5646 | Presentations | CL4.1

Drivers of the spatiotemporal variability in the thermal balance of forests during heatwaves and normal conditions. 

Adrià Barbeta, Diego G. Miralles, Leire Mendiola, Teresa E. Gimeno, Santiago Sabaté, Albert Pou, and Jofre Carnicer

Different land covers present contrasting changes in energy budgets as a response to heatwaves and droughts and thus the land feedback is expected to vary over the landscape. To date, the study of the biotic determinants of land-atmosphere feedbacks during heatwaves has been restricted to the consideration of different plant functional types. We used improved vegetation structural measurements at organizational levels lower than plant functional types (inter– and intra–specific) to estimate the impact of forests on the surface thermal balance.

We combined space-borne measurements of the temperature of plants (ECOSTRESS) and the land surface (MODIS) with ground-based meteorological data to estimate the thermal balance of the surface (∆T) at a resolution of 70x70m in 615 forest plots, dominated by 28 different species. In each plot, forest structural variables were determined through LiDAR. We then analysed the spatiotemporal drivers of ∆T by quantifying the contribution of topographical, landscape, meteorological and forest structural variables on ∆T both during normal conditions and heatwave episodes.

Canopy temperatures fluctuated according to changes in air temperature and were on average 1˚C warmer than the air. During heatwaves, canopies were relatively cooler than the air, compared to normal conditions in all but Mediterranean coniferous forests. The thermal response of canopies to heatwaves strongly varied as a function of environmental variables. Forests in rainy areas and in steep slopes presented the lowest ∆T, whereas forests in arid areas and flat terrain had the highest ∆T. Interestingly, there was a strong effect of forest structure, since forests with larger biomass kept a cooler thermal balance (lower ∆T). Indeed, the total effect of forest structural variables on ∆T was of equal magnitude as that of topography or meteorological conditions.

The thermal balance of the surface (∆T) was not only different among the main forest types, but also, it strongly varied within forests dominated by the same species. Because ∆T is an important component of the surface energy budget, our results on its dependence on forest structure imply that forest management could be employed to modify the surface energy budget to promote negative (mitigating) feedbacks of forests during heatwave episodes. Further efforts concentrate on estimating changes in aerodynamic conductance between forests and their surroundings, and their potential influence on the land–atmosphere coupling and the feedback of forests on local temperatures.

How to cite: Barbeta, A., Miralles, D. G., Mendiola, L., Gimeno, T. E., Sabaté, S., Pou, A., and Carnicer, J.: Drivers of the spatiotemporal variability in the thermal balance of forests during heatwaves and normal conditions., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5646, 2022.

EGU22-5787 | Presentations | CL4.1 | Highlight

Shift towards ecosystem water limitation exacerbates hot temperature extremes 

Jasper Denissen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Rene Orth

Hot temperature extremes have severe implications for human health, crop yields and tree mortality. Whereas they are mostly introduced by atmospheric circulation patterns, the intensity of hot temperature extremes is modulated by ecosystem functioning; when soil moisture is abundant, evaporation of water through transpiration and evaporation from surfaces is high, which causes relevant evaporative cooling. This cooling is greatly reduced under drought stress, because ecosystems adapt to water-limited conditions by saving water e.g. through stomatal regulation which leads to decreased terrestrial evaporation. This in turn leaves more energy to potentially exacerbate hot temperature extremes. 

While it has been shown that ecosystem water limitation is projected to increase in the future, the respective implications on hot temperature extremes are unclear. In this study, we capture the ecosystem's water limitation through the so-called Ecosystem Limitation Index (ELI, Denissen et al. 2020). To mitigate the confounding influence of changes in mean temperatures, which possibly originate from heat advection and circulation, we focus on the differences between mean and hot temperature extremes. Based on global climate projections from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) from 1980 - 2100, we find regions with significant correlations between future evolution of temperature differences and ELI, with hot spots in North and South America. We furthermore test the role of the initial ELI for these correlations and find weak effects in Earth System Models included in the CMIP6 ensemble, but higher relevance in reanalysis data from the ECMWF Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5) from 1980 - 2020, where the highest correlations are found in initially water-limited regions. These findings show that in large areas across the globe, temperature extremes increase much faster than mean temperatures alongside ecosystem drying. Therefore, considering ecosystem drying is relevant for assessing the intensity of projected temperature extremes and their corresponding impacts. This way, improving the representation of vegetation dynamics in state-of-the-art models is necessary to more accurately estimate evaporative cooling and consequently hot temperature extremes.

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Denissen, J. M., Teuling, A. J., Reichstein, M., & Orth, R. (2020). Critical soil moisture derived from satellite observations over Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125(6), e2019JD031672.

How to cite: Denissen, J., Teuling, A. J., Balsamo, G., and Orth, R.: Shift towards ecosystem water limitation exacerbates hot temperature extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5787, 2022.

EGU22-6467 | Presentations | CL4.1

Daytime-only-mean data can enhance our understanding of land-atmosphere coupling 

Zun Yin, Kirsten Findell, Paul Dirmeyer, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Khaled Ghannam, Nina Raoult, and Zhihong Tan

The major concern of land-atmosphere interactions (L-A) is the evolutionary process between the land surface and the planet boundary layer during the daytime, however many relevant studies had to use entire-day-mean daily time series to perform investigation due to lack of sub-daily data. Yet it is unclear whether the inclusion of nighttime data would alter the results or obscure the L-A interactive processes. To address this question, we generated daytime-only-mean (D) and entire-day-mean (E) daily data based on the ERA5 (5th ECMWF reanalysis) hourly product, and evaluated the strength of L-A coupling through a two-legged metrics, which assessed the coupling strength by the causality as well as the impact magnitude through two segments (land-fluxes and fluxes-atmosphere). The results demonstrated significant differences between the D- and E-based diagnoses as large as 67% (median 20.7%), which strongly depended on the season and the region. More importantly, for the first time, two special L-A coupling mechanisms were revealed. One was the advection-dominant L-A mechanism in tropical hyper-arid regions. The other was the soil moisture and sensible heat flux coupling mechanism during the cooling process over the nighttime. Both processes may play important roles during the night, andweaken the signal of L-A coupling if E was applied. To improve our knowledge of L-A interactions, we call attention to the urgent need for more high frequency data for relevant diagnoses. Meanwhile, we propose two approaches to resolve the dilemma of huge storage for high frequency data: (1) integration of L-A metrics in Earth System Model outputs, and (2) production of daily datasets based on different averaging algorithms.

How to cite: Yin, Z., Findell, K., Dirmeyer, P., Shevliakova, E., Malyshev, S., Ghannam, K., Raoult, N., and Tan, Z.: Daytime-only-mean data can enhance our understanding of land-atmosphere coupling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6467, 2022.

EGU22-6753 | Presentations | CL4.1

Upwind droughts enhance heat waves in Eastern China 

Shiyu Zhou and Xing Yuan

Heat wave is one of the most severe natural disasters in the mid-latitude regions. Due to climate change and urbanization, heat waves have been intensified in the past, and are projected to be more severe in the future. Droughts and heat waves usually occur simultaneously, which are referred to as compound extreme events. Antecedent or simultaneous droughts enhance heat waves through local land-atmosphere interaction, but a few case studies show that upwind droughts can have a significant impact on heat waves through sensible heat advection. In order to systematically study the impact of upwind droughts on heat waves, this study uses a Lagrangian integrated trajectory model driven by reanalysis data to analyze the heat wave events in northern part of Eastern China from 1979 to 2019. We find that half of the heat waves are enhanced by upwind droughts. For the related heat waves, the upwind droughts contributed to 67.9% of the heat anomalies. The impact of flash drought on heat waves in Eastern China is also being explored, with particular interest to extract heat wave signals from antecedent flash drought to provide early warning for extreme heat waves over downwind areas.

How to cite: Zhou, S. and Yuan, X.: Upwind droughts enhance heat waves in Eastern China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6753, 2022.

EGU22-6904 | Presentations | CL4.1

Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts 

Meng Zhao, Geruo Aa, Yanlan Liu, and Alexandra Konings

During droughts, low water availabilities limit soil evaporation and induce stomatal closure to prevent transpiration, leading to reductions in evapotranspiration (ET). At the same time, drought-associated meteorological conditions such as high temperature elevate atmospheric evaporative demand, acting to increase ET. However, the overall effect of drought on the sign of ET anomalies remains unknown, as are the determinants of this response. Positive anomalies during drought (ET+), in particular, are of concern because they quickly deplete water resources, may cause flash droughts, and exacerbate ecosystem stress. Because remotely sensed ET datasets implicitly assume a stomatal response to drought, they cannot provide direct observational constraints of the prevalence of ET+. Eddy covariance tower records are often too short and sparse to adequately sample drought conditions. To avoid these shortcomings, we used a water balance approach to derive a new estimate of ET+ occurrence during droughts by combining total terrestrial water storage (TWS) observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) with Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation data. The robustness of this approach is demonstrated across 104 hydrological basins. With this new water balance-based estimate, we showed that ET+ during droughts are globally widespread. On average, ET+ occurs in ~45% of drought periods, and it is more likely to occur during milder droughts (with relatively lower P reductions and ample available TWS). CMIP6 Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the observed ET+ probability by nearly half. This underestimation is particularly large in relatively dry locations with an aridity index (P/PET) below ~1.5 and can be attributed in part to an overly strong ET response to decreases in soil moisture in these regions. Furthermore, ESM’s lack of accounting for variability in plant water stress response traits within plant functional types exacerbates their underestimation of ET+. This demonstrates for the first time that local adaptation of plant water stress response traits reduces the impact of droughts on ET. These process representations should be improved to reduce model uncertainties in predicting drought impacts on the energy-water-carbon nexus.

How to cite: Zhao, M., Aa, G., Liu, Y., and Konings, A.: Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6904, 2022.

EGU22-7812 | Presentations | CL4.1

Impact of trends in historical surface roughness over Europe on extra-tropical windstorms in CMIP6 

Mareike Schuster, Thomas Raddatz, and Uwe Ulbrich

Extratropical windstorms are amongst the highest rated perils for the European continent. Extreme wind speeds of these synoptic scale systems occur primarily in the winter season and often cause damage to buildings, forests and infrastructure, and thus can have large socio-economic impacts.

In our studies of extratropical windstorms in the CMIP6 model ensemble, we found remarkable trends of opposite sign in the wind speed during the historical period. More specifically, we found a continuous increase in the surface wind speed in the early historical period between 1850 and 1920, and an even stronger decrease thereafter until the present.

In a case study with one of the models (MPI-ESM) we found that the trends in the wind speed relate to a trend of opposite sign in the roughness length, thus the wind speed increases in eras with a decrease in the surface roughness (and tree fraction) and vice versa.  While this relationship is expected and physically reasonable, it appears that the interaction of surface parameters with the atmosphere was different in CMIP5 climate models, as there is no comparable reaction of surface wind speeds to the trends in surface parameters (e.g. tree fraction).

Since the historical era serves as the reference for any derived climate change signal, these trends might affect the amplitude of the changes in a future climate and the derived conclusions. Also, state of the art climate change signals regarding storminess might need to be reconsidered with this newly represented land-atmosphere interaction in the models.

We further explore this phenomenon by eliminating the influence of the roughness on the wind speed and investigate the effect that this correction has on the appearance of climate change signals of extratropical windstorms.

How to cite: Schuster, M., Raddatz, T., and Ulbrich, U.: Impact of trends in historical surface roughness over Europe on extra-tropical windstorms in CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7812, 2022.

EGU22-8163 | Presentations | CL4.1

Modeling the surface-atmosphere coupling in the Moroccan semi-arid plains in the context of climate change 

Khadija Arjdal, Fatima Driouech, Étienne Vignon, Frédérique Chéruy, Adriana Sima, Philippe Drobinski, Abdelghani Chehbouni, and Salah Er-Raki

Morocco as many semi-arid Mediterranean and north African countries is facing strong pressure on water resources exacerbated by climate change. Assessing the representation and variability of the Moroccan climate by using the climate models is of major importance to strengthen the reliability of future scenarios and anticipate the water cycle evolutions.

The aim of this study is to evaluate and improve the representation of the surface-atmosphere coupling, and the boundary-layer dynamics over the Haouz plain by the IPSL-CM Earth System Model. The Haouz plain is one of the most important agricultural and touristic regions of Morocco. It is located in the Tensift watershed and limited with the Atlas mountains, and it has been equipped with a network of meteorological stations. We set a simulation configuration up with a model grid refined over the Haouz plain and with a nudging towards atmospheric reanalysis outside the plain, making it possible to concomitantly compare the model outputs with in-situ data. 

A first evaluation of the control simulation reveals an overall good agreement between the observed daily mean temperature and the simulated one despite some cold biases. Simulated near-surface relative humidity is generally low-biased (up to 20%) while precipitation is overestimated (up to 50% of observed daily precipitation). Those biases are further deciphered through a careful evaluation of the different terms of the surface energy and water budgets. Complementary analyses conditioned to the direction of the large scale flow also investigate how model’s performances over the plain depend on the representation of the orographic flow over the Atlas. This evaluation work is a preliminary and an important step to identify which and how LMDZ parameterizations have to be improved for semi-arid African regions. 

How to cite: Arjdal, K., Driouech, F., Vignon, É., Chéruy, F., Sima, A., Drobinski, P., Chehbouni, A., and Er-Raki, S.: Modeling the surface-atmosphere coupling in the Moroccan semi-arid plains in the context of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8163, 2022.

EGU22-8601 | Presentations | CL4.1 | Highlight

Present and future land surface and wet bulb temperatures in the Arabian Peninsula 

Sarah Safieddine, Simon Whitburn, Lieven Clarisse, and Cathy Clerbaux

The Arabian Peninsula exhibits extreme hot summers and has one of the world's largest population growth. We use satellite observations and reanalysis as well as climate model projections to analyze morning and evening land surface temperatures (LST), to refer to processes at the surface, and wet bulb temperatures (WBT) to measure human heat stress. We focus on three regions: The Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, the inland capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh and the irrigated agricultural region in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia. This study shows that the time of the day is important when studying LST and WBT, with current and future WBT higher in the early summer evenings. It also shows that the effect of humidity brought from waterbodies or through irrigation can significantly increase heat stress.

Over the coasts of the Peninsula, humidity decreases LST but increases heat stress via WBT values higher than 25°C in the evening. Riyadh, located in the heart of the Peninsula has lower WBT of 15°C to 17.5°C and LST reaching 42.5°C. Irrigation in the Al-Jouf province decreases LST by up to 10° with respect to its surroundings, while it increases WBT by up to 2.5°. Climate projections over the Arabian Peninsula suggest that global efforts will determine the survivability in this region. Even under the sustainability scenario, the projected increase in LST and WBT reaches +10° and +5°C respectively in the Persian Gulf and Riyadh by 2100 posing significant risk on human survivability in the Peninsula.

How to cite: Safieddine, S., Whitburn, S., Clarisse, L., and Clerbaux, C.: Present and future land surface and wet bulb temperatures in the Arabian Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8601, 2022.

EGU22-9810 | Presentations | CL4.1

Land surface controls on drought termination in Belgium 

Douwe De Vestele, Irina Yu. Petrova, and Diego G. Miralles

Droughts are impactful climate extremes with proven dramatic consequences on economy, ecosystems and society. Numerous research has been devoted to exploring land surface controls on meteorological drought onset and evolution. However, the importance of land conditions may be equally important for drought termination, yet the latter remains much less understood. Drought demise is often abrupt, can lead to extreme rainfall and floods, and is generally hard to capture using traditional monthly drought metrics. A better predictability of the end of a drought can not only help better anticipate the duration of droughts, but also significantly improve risk assessment and water resource management during dry extremes.

In this study, we explore the existence of a positive or negative feedback between the decreasing soil moisture and the probability of drought termination. As test cases, multiple droughts in Belgium during the period of 1981–2015 are selected. As a first step, we compose a data set of past droughts based on precipitation and soil moisture from ECMWF reanalysis data and identify the drought termination days. Next, multiple simulations of the drought termination days are executed with the CLASS4GL mixed-layer model framework, in which the influence of changing soil moisture conditions is evaluated. Finally, the sensitivity of drought demise to soil moisture is assessed based on multiple soil moisture–atmosphere coupling metrics and revealed sensitivity relationships. The obtained results highlight the importance of realistic representation of land–atmosphere feedbacks and soil moisture for drought evolution and termination, and could be used to inform drought prediction efforts or pave the way for effective geoengineering solutions designed to mitigate the increasing risk of dry climate extremes in the future.

How to cite: De Vestele, D., Yu. Petrova, I., and G. Miralles, D.: Land surface controls on drought termination in Belgium, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9810, 2022.

EGU22-11121 | Presentations | CL4.1

Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Indices over India by CMIP6 Models 

Debi Prasad Bhuyan, Popat Salunke, and Saroj Kanta Mishra

To simulate the extreme precipitation events through GCMs has become a challenge due to discrepancies in spatio-temporal resolution, physics, and parameterization schemes of the models along with deficiencies in the observed datasets. In this study, the performance of 27 CMIP6 models and their Multi model mean (MMM) in simulating extreme precipitation indices has been compared to the observed precipitation datasets (APHRODITE and IMD) over India during JJAS for 1975-2014. Meanwhile, the MMM shows a close agreement in simulating the indices derived from APHRODITE with PCC >0.6 for all indices with higher skill score (0.54), lower NRMSE than IMD. However, the MMM over- (under)-estimate the number of consecutive wet days (total precipitation) with a median relative error of 64% and 160% (5% and 20%) respectively, as compared to APHRODITE and IMD. Which inferred that similar biases still persist in the newly released CMIP6 GCMs with inter-observation dissimilarity in reproducing the indices. In general, the MMM is unable to replicate the very heavy precipitation (R20mm), with negative median relative errors. However, for all three aforementioned precipitation indices the extent of over- and under-estimation is less while comparing against the APHRODITE than IMD. For consecutive dry days (CDD), the MMM over- (under)-estimate over the North west (northern tip and peninsular as well as lee side of Western Ghat) parts of India, where the biases relative to APHRODITE (IMD) is large (less). The MMM simulates precipitation indices well, instead of using individual model. Whereas, the variation of NRMSE values of individual models are less with the exception of CDD and CWD, where the disagreement between the models with observation is large with larger interquartile model range. Comparing the relative errors between the different homogenous regions of India, all the regions are marginally performing good in simulating the different indices except the NW region, which is appended with larger relative error. It was worth noting that the models having higher spatial resolutions simulate the indices realistically with high (low) PCC (NRMSE), whereas the reversal is not valid for the worst performing models.

 

Key Words: Extreme Precipitation, CMIP6, MMM, IMD, APHRODITE

How to cite: Bhuyan, D. P., Salunke, P., and Mishra, S. K.: Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Indices over India by CMIP6 Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11121, 2022.

This study examined boreal summer soil moisture using long-term satellite observations to study the bimodal probability distribution function (bimodality) of the surface soil moisture for the land-atmosphere coupling hotspot region, i.e., United States, Sahel and India. Although boreal summer soil moisture bimodality has been detected globally, it has not yet been established how surface soil moisture bimodality is caused. In this comparative multiregional study of surface soil moisture, the object was to classify India, Sahel, and Unites States regions into inter-annual or intra-seasonal soil moisture variation-based soil moisture bimodality. It was found that soil moisture bimodality detection is sensitive to the number of observations and the selected time period window. For northern India, intra-seasonal soil moisture variation dominates for soil moisture bimodality, while in the case of the United States, intra-annual soil moisture variation is dominant. 

How to cite: Dengri, A. and Yamada, T.: Soil moisture bimodality over Land–Atmosphere hotspot regions at intraseasonal and interannual timescale., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12122, 2022.

Gando Bawal (Mad Tree) as it is called by the people of Kutch, Gujarat is the non-native species originally known as Prosopis juliflora which was introduced in this semi-arid region in the year 1960 for rehabilitation of sodic lands and to prevent the encroachment of Rann desert onto the Banni grassland. Studies by Pasha et al. 2014 have suggested that there was an increase of 42.9% of area under Prosopis cover in Kutch during 1977 to 2011. Due to its invasive nature it has spread over large areas and invaded the pastoral grasslands of Banni region of Kutch, Gujarat. There is an increase in frequency of droughts and the people of Banni are blaming Prosopis juliflora as the culprit. Prosopis juliflora has depleted the ground water sources by accessing it through its long roots. To evaluate this and to assess the rate of groundwater depletion in this region here we used terrestrial water storage-change observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites (GRACE) and simulated soil-water variations from a data-integrating hydrological model to show that groundwater is being depleted. The data set was prepared by collecting the measured precipitation, remote sensing evaporation and ground water table from the period of 2002 to 2017. During this period, the other terrestrial water storage components i.e. soil moisture, surface waters and biomass did not contribute significantly to the observed decline in total water levels. The study provided valuable information in understanding the net groundwater depletion rate by the tree species. Although our observational record is brief, the available evidence suggests that the consumption of groundwater by the tree species Prosopis juliflora is the cause why the region is going through shortages of potable water, leading to extensive socio economic stresses.

How to cite: Tundia, K., Rao, A., and Shastri, Y.: Satellite based Assessment of Groundwater Depletion by the Invasive Tree Species- Prosopis juliflora in a Semi-Arid Region of Gujarat, India , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12254, 2022.

EGU22-723 | Presentations | CL4.2

The Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite: coupled atmosphere-ocean kilometer-scale assessments of present and future climates 

Ivica Vilibić, Clea Denamiel, Iva Tojčić, and Petra Pranić

We present a variety of applications of the climate component of the coupled atmosphere-ocean kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite.  The AdriSC modelling suite has been implemented to represent both atmospheric and oceanic dynamics in the Adriatic Sea region and, in particular, to reproduce processes at the mesoscale (i.e. at the kilometer-scale or higher resolutions) like meteotsunamis (atmospherically-generated long-ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band) or orographically-driven winds. For that reason, two different modules have been developed conjointly in the AdriSC model. First, the basic module provides the kilometer-scale atmospheric and oceanic Adriatic baroclinic circulation with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model at up to 3 km resolution in the atmosphere and the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) in the ocean, coupled with the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model for surface waves at up to 1 km resolution. Second, the dedicated nearshore module is used to better reproduce atmospherically driven extreme sea level events, and couples offline the WRF 1.5 km grid in the atmosphere with the ADCIRC-SWAN unstructured mesh down to 10 m resolution along the Adriatic coastline.

Two different approaches – based on Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) methodology – have been implemented to assess the impact of climate change in the Adriatic Sea: (1) short-term event-oriented simulations to represent the dynamics of extreme events with the nearshore module, and (2) long-term simulations (31-years), based solely on the basic module, to derive statistics of present (1987-2017) and future (2070-2100) climates. More precisely, the numerically unexpansive short-term simulations were used (1) to verify the implementation of the PGW methodology in the ocean and (2) to derive the impact of climate change on the bora wind dynamics and the associated wintertime cooling in the northern Adriatic Sea, as well as on the surface wave dynamics generated by dominant winds (sirocco, bora) and meteotsunamis. Concerning the expansive 31-year long simulations, they each took 18 months of run on the European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) supercomputer to provide, for the very first time, a reliable kilometer-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean dataset – fully evaluated against observations in both atmosphere and ocean. Consequently, kilometer-scale coastal hazards under extreme climate changes can now be fully assessed by researchers, but also environmental agencies in the Adriatic region.

The research was supported by the Croatian Science Foundation (projects BivACME and ADIOS).

How to cite: Vilibić, I., Denamiel, C., Tojčić, I., and Pranić, P.: The Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite: coupled atmosphere-ocean kilometer-scale assessments of present and future climates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-723, 2022.

Climate changes have been invoked to explain recent changes in wildfire regimes in Mediterranean regions, and climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in fire weather during the 21st century. However, humans influence natural fire regimes today directly by supressing or igniting fires, and indirectly by changing fuel types and fuel structure through land use changes. Recent observations provide only a limited basis for determining the relative importance of climate and human activities for fire. The diachronous introduction of agriculture during the Neolithic provides an opportunity to examine the potential impact of human activities on fire regimes. We reconstruct fire history using sedimentary charcoal records and population change based on summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates on archaeological material, focusing on the interval between 10,000 and 3,500 cal. BP. The archaeological radiocarbon dates are also used to map the onset of agriculture through time across the region. For Iberia as a whole, we identify two periods of rapid population growth, centred on ca. 7,400 and ca. 5,400 cal. BP. However, these periods of rapid population growth are not synchronous with changes in charcoal accumulation. Changes in charcoal accumulation are not aligned with the time-transgressive dates for the introduction of agriculture across the region; charcoal accumulation was already increasing ca. 400 years prior to the onset of agriculture and continues to increase for ca. 200 years afterwards. There is also no consistent correlative relationship between population and fire across the period of analysis.  Our analyses show that there are no direct links between the introduction of agriculture or subsequent increases in population and changes to fire regimes in Iberia in the early to mid-Holocene, suggesting that changes in fire regimes were largely driven by climate changes.

How to cite: Sweeney, L., Harrison, S. P., and Vander Linden, M.: The drivers of changing fire regimes: an assessment of anthropogenic influence on fire history in the Iberian Peninsula during the Holocene, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-884, 2022.

EGU22-2837 | Presentations | CL4.2

Extreme daily precipitation trends in the Mediterranean region under a business-as-usual pathway 

George Zitttis, Adriana Bruggeman, and Jos Lelieveld

Global warming is anticipated to intensify the hydrological cycle. However, this is neither expected to be globally uniform nor is the relationship between temperature increase and rainfall intensities expected to be linear. The objective of this study is to assess changes in annual rainfall extremes, total annual precipitation, and their relationship in the larger Mediterranean region. We use an ensemble of 33 regional climate simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative at a spatial resolution of 0.11°. We analyse the significance of trends for two periods (1951–2000 and 2001–2100) under a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway (RCP8.5). Our future projections indicate a strong north/south gradient, with significant, decreasing trends in the magnitude of daily precipitation extremes in the south and the Maghreb region (up to − 10 mm/decade) and less profound, increasing trends in the north parts of the Mediterranean. Despite the contrasting future trends, the 50-year daily precipitation extremes are projected to strongly increase throughout the region. The 100-year extremes, derived with traditional extreme value approaches from the 1951–2000 simulations, underestimate the magnitude of these extreme events in the 2001–2100 projections by 30% for the drier areas of the Mediterranean (200–500 mm average annual rainfall) and by up to 20–30% for the wetter parts of the region. These 100-year extremes can occur at any time in any Mediterranean location. The contribution of the wettest day per year to the annual total precipitation is expected to increase (5–30%) throughout the region. The projected increase in extremes and the strong reductions in mean annual precipitation in the drier, southern and eastern Mediterranean will amplify the challenges for water resource management. These results have been published in Zittis et al. (2021).

 

References

Zittis, G., Bruggeman, A., Lelieveld, J., 2021. Revisiting future extreme precipitation trends in the Mediterranean. Weather and Climate Extremes. 34, 100380. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100380

How to cite: Zitttis, G., Bruggeman, A., and Lelieveld, J.: Extreme daily precipitation trends in the Mediterranean region under a business-as-usual pathway, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2837, 2022.

EGU22-3567 | Presentations | CL4.2

Historical and New Insights into Atmospheric Teleconnection 

pinhas Alpert and hadas saaroni

The “Teleconnection” term in climate studies was defined primarily for widely separated regions. This stems from the basic idea that a physical process, such as an advection or a particular synoptic system, cannot simply explain a relation or a correlation in large distances. Also, in modern times, models more often fail in predicting these remote patterns, particularly with regional models, such as in the hurricane example and its effect on Mediterranean precipitation, explored here. Several teleconnection relations are reviewed, with particular focus on Mediterranean rainfall. It is argued that even with a clear physical process of advection and for a short horizontal scale, ‘teleconnection’ is often not well understood, if the physical mechanism involved is complex, such as in the sub-synoptic scales of aerosol-rainfall interaction or megacities and their potential effects on precipitation. Thus, a broader look at the horizontal scale of teleconnection is proposed where the word TELE is still representing the word ‘far’, as in its Greek origin, but it also includes our limitation in understanding of complex atmospheric relations in various distances.

Furthermore, the hidden assumption that ancients were not able to observe teleconnections is contradicted by an example from ~1800 years ago. In this example, a claim was made in the Talmud that the Euphrates flow is strongly related to the rainfall over the greater Israel region, located at ~700-900 km westward. However, the understanding of this ancient teleconnection was only possible at the 2nd half of the 19th century when the role of synoptic systems in weather, has emerged. 

 

Keywords: Teleconnection, Rainfall, synoptic system, Euphrates discharge, Middle East, Levant, Talmud

 

REFERENCE:

P. Alpert and H. Saaroni, “Historical and New Insights into Atmospheric Teleconnection” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science (eds von Storch, H. et al.)  (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 2021).(accepted Aug. 2021)

How to cite: Alpert, P. and saaroni, H.: Historical and New Insights into Atmospheric Teleconnection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3567, 2022.

Med-CORDEX is an international initiative that aims at developing fully coupled high resolution Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) for the Mediterranean basin.  After 11 years of work an ensemble of more than 25 multi-model and multi–scenario climatic simulations is now available. In this study, we analyze the impact of the high-resolution representation of the Mediterranean Sea and of the interaction between ocean and atmosphere, explicitly resolved in the Med-CORDEX simulations, in the projected evolution of the most relevant climatic variables for the Mediterranean basin and the adjacent regions during the 21st century. The final goal is to quantify up to what extent including the explicit and high-resolution representation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling is relevant for regional climate projections. The preliminary results show that, in general, higher resolution coupled simulations project a lower increase in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) than lower resolution runs. This translates in a smaller input of heat and humidity to the atmosphere that, in turn, affect the cloud cover and precipitation over the basin and the adjacent continental areas. These changes are the result of a better representation of the Mediterranean Sea functioning in the Med-CORDEX RCSMs. In particular, they resolve better the mesoscale processes of the basin, which are partly responsible of the heat transport from the surface to deeper layers, and the ocean-atmosphere feedback that regulates the heat exchange.

How to cite: Soto-Navarro, J., Jordà, G., Somot, S., and Sevault, F.: Impact of the ocean-atmosphere coupling on high-resolution future projections for the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding climate from the Med-CORDEX ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4074, 2022.

EGU22-4163 | Presentations | CL4.2

Atmospheric rivers responses to climate change in the Mediterranean Region 

Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Ricardo M. Trigo

Moisture transport over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean is one of the processes governing precipitation distribution and variability over Southern Europe. This moisture transport mainly occurs in the so-called Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). ARs are relatively narrow and elongated filaments of high-water vapor transport, which are associated with tropical moisture exports and often occur in combination with the passage of strong extratropical cyclones. Such structures transport more than 90% of the total mid-latitude vertically integrated water vapor, that on landfall, produce precipitation which can be both beneficial and destructive due to its interaction with topography or ascent in the Warm Conveyor Belt.

Understanding how AR characteristics will respond to a warming climate is, therefore, critical to mitigate changes in the intensity of AR-related precipitation and related hydrological extremes.

ARs reaching Southern Europe are analyzed using CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations and on a high resolution transient simulation between 850 CE to 2100. The projected IVT for 2070–99 significantly exceeds the range given by interannual–interdecadal variability of the last millennium. Changes in IVT are in line with significant increases in tropospheric moisture content, driven by the concurrent rise in surface temperatures associated with the anthropogenic climate trend. On regional scales, recent and projected precipitation changes over the British Isles follow the global positive IVT trend, whereas a robust precipitation decrease over Iberia is identified in the twenty-first century, particularly during autumn. This indicates a possible extension of stable and dry summer conditions and a decoupling between moisture availability and dynamical forcing. The investigation of circulation features reveals a mean poleward shift of moisture corridors and associated atmospheric rivers.

 

Acknowledgments

The financial support for this work was possible through the following FCT project: HOLMODRIVE—North Atlantic Atmospheric Patterns Influence on Western Iberia Climate: From the Late Glacial to the Present (PTDC/CTA-GEO/29029/2017).

How to cite: Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., and Trigo, R. M.: Atmospheric rivers responses to climate change in the Mediterranean Region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4163, 2022.

EGU22-4899 | Presentations | CL4.2

Heat content and temperature trends in the Mediterranean Sea as derived by Argo float data (2005 – 2020) 

Elisabeth Kubin, Milena Menna, Elena Mauri, Giulio Notarstefano, and Pierre-Marie Poulain

The Mediterranean Sea is very sensitive to climatic changes due to its semi-enclosed nature and is defined as one of the hotspots in future climate change projections. In this study we use Argo float data to describe spatial variabilities and trends in Ocean Heat Content (OHC) within the entire Mediterranean Sea and for specified sub-basins (e.g. Western and Eastern Mediterranean, Gulf of Lion, South Adriatic). The amount of the OHC, spatially averaged in bins of 1 °x1 ° over the period 2001-2020, increases from west to east in the Mediterranean Sea.
Time series of temperature and OHC from 2005 to 2020, estimated in the upper and intermediate layers (5-700 m) and deeper layer (700-2000 m), reveal significant warming trends and an increase of OHC: the upper 700 m of the Mediterranean Sea show a warming trend of 0.041±0.012 °Cyr-1, corresponding to a yearly increase in OHC of 3.59±1.02 Wm-2. The upper 700 m of the Western Mediterranean Sea are warming fastest with an increase in temperature at a rate of 0.070±0.015 °Cyr-1, corresponding to a yearly increase in OHC of 5.72±1.28 Wm-2.

Mixing and convection events transport and disperse the temperature and OHC changes: significant warming trends are evident in the deeper layers (700-2000 m) of the two deep convection sites in the Mediterranean Sea (Gulf of Lion, South Adriatic), with an exceptionally strong warming trend in the South Adriatic from 2013 to 2020 of  0.058±0.005 °Cyr-1, corresponding to a yearly increase in OHC of 9.43±0.85 Wm-2

The warming of different water masses will show its feedback on ocean dynamics and the atmosphere (air-sea fluxes) in the next years, decades or even centuries when these warming waters spread or re-emerge. This will stress ecosystems and accelerate the extinction of several marine species. This study contributes to a better understanding of climate change in the Mediterranean region and should be another wake-up call for policy makers and society.

How to cite: Kubin, E., Menna, M., Mauri, E., Notarstefano, G., and Poulain, P.-M.: Heat content and temperature trends in the Mediterranean Sea as derived by Argo float data (2005 – 2020), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4899, 2022.

EGU22-4939 | Presentations | CL4.2

Vegetation history of the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea–Caspian-Corridor during the last 12500 years 

Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, Sandy P. Harrison, Colin Prentice, and Elena Marinova

The Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea Caspian Corridor (EMBSeCBIO) region (33°–49°N, 20°–60°E ), is characterized by strong temperature and precipitation gradients and topographic heterogeneity, resulting in the clear patterns in biome distribution within a relatively limited geographic space. The complexity of this area is a challenge for reconstructing the dynamics of the vegetation throughout the Holocene. In this study, we apply a recently developed method to reconstruct past vegetation changes. The method uses a large dataset of modern pollen samples assigned to biomes based on potential natural vegetation cover data to characterize biomes according to the means and standard deviations of the abundances of each taxon. We use this characterization to calculate an index of dissimilarity between any given pollen sample and each biome, and thus evaluate the probability that a pollen sample belongs to a particular biome. The method also allows us to identify non-analogue vegetation types, when the scores for fossil samples are outside the range of modern scores. The vegetation reconstructions were used to produce point-to-area interpolated maps for 300 years windows. We identify periods of relative ecological stability for mapping, and also periods of rapid environmental change, by analysing high resolution (=<200 years) fossil records using a breakpoint regression approach. For quantifying ecological change, we used ordination analysis to characterize the major gradient of compositional variation in pollen records. Preliminary results indicate the presence of non-analogue vegetation at several sites during the late glacial. They document a rapid expansion of forest and semi-open forest vegetation after the late glacial period in the Black Sea region, the Balkans, the Aegean and the Carpathians, but the persistence of open vegetation types in the mountains of south-eastern Anatolia (Zagros Mountains). The reconstructions indicate the maximum expansion of temperate forest at ~6000 calibrated years BP, where it reaches the south-eastern part of Anatolia and the mountains at the south of the Aegean Peninsula. A replacement of forest vegetation by open or semi-open vegetation types occurred in the Aegean Peninsula from ~7 to 5 ky. The middle to late-Holocene transition from forest vegetation to more open vegetation types was observed across the central Aegean area, Anatolia and the Caucasus.

How to cite: Cruz-Silva, E., P. Harrison, S., Prentice, C., and Marinova, E.: Vegetation history of the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea–Caspian-Corridor during the last 12500 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4939, 2022.

Sandy beaches have a paramount importance as natural barrier for coastal protection (Vousdoukas et al., 2020) and a valued socioeconomical asset for touristic activities (Enríquez & Bujosa Bestard, 2020). The unprecedented population expansion along with the sea level rise put the coastal areas under a high risk for the coming decades. An accurate estimate of the future evolution of sandy beaches is a key step for the development of effective adaptation strategies.

In this work, we estimate the potential loss of sandy beaches due to climate change under different scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We focus on the Balearic Islands beaches as a case study representative of the Mediterranean sandy beaches. We combine a high-resolution nearshore total water level (TWL) with the detailed characteristics (area, granulometry and slope) of the 869 beaches of the Islands. TWL is obtained combining the contribution of mean sea level, storm surge and wave runup. In particular, a cost-effective methodology that combines numerical modelling and statistical techniques has been developed to  explicitly obtain wave runup on beaches.

An additional important point to be considered is that, in the Mediterranean Sea, seagrass meadows are commonly present at shallow depths (Marbà et al., 1996; Ruíz, Boudouresque, & Enríquez, 2009). This presence of vegetation plays a relevant role in the dissipation of the incident wave energy against the coast (Infantes et al., 2012) and, consequently, induces a reduction in the coastal flooding during extreme events.  So, in this work we consider the wave attenuation due to bottom flow and seagrass interaction in the wave propagation to the coast using a specific parametrization (Mendez & Losada, 2004).

The results show that the beach surface in the Balearic Island (~310ha) would be significantly reduced at mid and long term under the most likely scenarios of future GHG emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In particular, at mid-century, around 35-45% of the beach area would permanently disappear under mean conditions, mainly due to the contribution of the mean sea level rise. Under storm conditions, the beach loss would increase up to 75-78% due to the wave runup effect. At the end of the century, around 55-65% of the beach area will be permanently flooded and around 85% under storm conditions. These results could be safely extrapolated to most regions in the Mediterranean as they share similar beach and hydrodynamic characteristics. Finally, some results on the potential of climate-based solutions to reduce the impact of storms will be presented.

 

How to cite: Agulles, M. and Jordà, G.: Flooding of sandy beaches in a changing climate and the potential of nature based solution for impact mitigation., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4959, 2022.

EGU22-4968 | Presentations | CL4.2

Mediterranean climates during Dansgaard-Oechger cycles in the last glacial period 

Mark Turner and Sandy P. Harrison

We investigate the impact of rapid climate changes during the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles of the last glacial on the climate of the Mediterranean region. We reconstructed the temperature of the coldest and warmest months, growing season warmth, and plant-available moisture (MI) from 20 published pollen cores from Iberia to Iran, using frequency corrected tolerance-weighted weighted average partial least squares (fxTWA-PLS) method. We corrected the MI reconstructions to account for the direct physiological impact of changing CO2 levels on plant water-use efficiency. We found warm intervals – probable GIs - by identifying potential D-O warmings using their signature asymmetrical rise and fall. Cold climate intervals – considered as the most extreme expression of the GSs - were defined as periods when growing season warmth was below the long-term average value for each individual record.

Warm intervals are characterised by a decrease in moisture in the western Mediterranean compared to the preceding cold interval. Sites in the eastern Mediterranean show either no change in moisture between the two states or are characterised by a slight increase in moisture during the warm intervals compared to the cold intervals. There is also a marked west-east difference in temperature seasonality, with warmer intervals showing increased seasonality in the western and northwestern region compared to the eastern Mediterranean. The increased seasonality is largely driven by changes in summer temperature since the degree of winter warming during warm intervals is similar across the whole region. Changes in all of the bioclimatic variables between cold and warm intervals show a strong relationship with latitude: the latitudinal gradient is steeper in cold climates than in warm climates. The relative homogeneity of changes during the cold intervals is consistent with a more zonal circulation pattern than during warm intervals. This change in circulation patterns could help to explain the west-east patterns in the changes in moisture between cold and warm intervals.

How to cite: Turner, M. and Harrison, S. P.: Mediterranean climates during Dansgaard-Oechger cycles in the last glacial period, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4968, 2022.

EGU22-5882 | Presentations | CL4.2

Environmental Change, Conflict and Human Migration in the Mediterranean: Challenges and Open Issues 

Manfred Lange, Wolfgang Cramer, Ethemcan Turhan, and Nicolas Jarraud

Climate and environmental changes as drivers of human migration likely reach back to the rise and decline of ancient civilizations in the Mediterranean Basin. At present, there is evidence of such changes and their impacts to cause risks for human security in the Mediterranean region particularly in its southern and eastern rim countries. Discussions on the relationships between climate change, conflicts, and human migration include framing these as potential threat multipliers, e.g., climate change-induced water shortages, which will lead to food insecurity and may thereby intensify conflicts and ultimately internal and cross-border migration. Most accounts anticipate these threat multipliers to occur in countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, lack adequate adaptive capacity, and be exposed to multiple socio-ecological stressors. Against the background of existing socio-political and armed conflicts in the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean, this risk deserves further scholarly attention. Inadequate or missing political instruments or agreements to deal with conflicts, insufficient cross-border collaboration, and limited links to international frameworks exacerbate the challenges faced by local communities in this region. These factors have likely contributed to the internal and cross-border migration of large groups of populations in war-torn countries in the Mediterranean Basin and elsewhere.

Despite strong evidence for links between climate change and its consequences for water, food, and economic security, there is still significant debate as to the relative importance of them for individual decisions to migrate. Equally contested are propositions addressing a possible direct causal relationship between climate change impacts or climate variability and violent conflict. In addressing these issues, it quickly becomes clear that the relationships between climate and environmental changes, conflicts, and human migration are multi-causal and are characterized by complex interactions and feedbacks. Key determinants likely include the social, political, cultural, and economic conditions of a specific country or region as well as their historical trajectory.

The Mediterranean Expert Group on Environmental and Climate Change (MedECC) has embarked on addressing these challenging issues through a Special Report that follows the First Mediterranean Assessment Report of MedECC (MAR1; 2019). Major issues to be addressed include:

(i) how can we identify current “hot spots” of climate change impacts and ongoing or emerging conflicts;

(ii) how can we shed light on understanding the roles of different determinants on internal and cross-border migration, particularly with regard to a) migration linked directly and/or indirectly to environmental change and conflicts, b) migration linked to other determinants, and c) understanding the relationships and interdependencies of different determinants;

(iii) what are major knowledge gaps and what approaches should be followed to address them?

While the “Task Force on Migration” of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East - Cyprus Climate Change Initiative has already discussed strategies and policy instruments to enhance adaptation to climate change, the MedECC Special Report will refine and complete such assessment by considering the links between climate change, conflicts, and migration based on existing adaptation measures.

This paper will provide background and rationale for the MedECC Special Report, its present state, and perspectives on its continued development.

How to cite: Lange, M., Cramer, W., Turhan, E., and Jarraud, N.: Environmental Change, Conflict and Human Migration in the Mediterranean: Challenges and Open Issues, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5882, 2022.

EGU22-6579 | Presentations | CL4.2

Climate change impacts on bioclimatic conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean 

Panagiotis T. Nastos, Iliana D. Polychroni, John Kapsomenakis, Stavros Solomos, and Christos S. Zerefos

Climate and weather are significant factors in planning to visit a touristic destination, especially taking into consideration the global warming. In this respect, touristic areas will be significantly affected by the potential adverse effects of climate change. This is the case of the Mediterranean which is considered one of the most vulnerable regions in global climate change, regarding the observed but also the expected future thermal risk. The goal of this study is to highlight the bioclimatic conditions anticipated to prevail in the eastern Mediterranean, studying five touristic destinations; namely, Heraklion, Crete Island (Greece), Antalya (Turkey), Limassol (Cyprus), Valletta (Malta) and Cairo (Egypt).

One of the most popular and widely applied human thermal index, the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), based on human energy balance, is utilized to quantify the regime of present and simulated future bioclimatic conditions. Air temperature, humidity, wind speed and global solar radiation (estimated at 1.1m where is the gravity center of the human body and builds the reference level for human biometeorological studies) are the parameters needed for the assessment of PET, using the RayMan model. The meteorological datasets concern 3-hour data from the SMHI RCA4 regional climate model (Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoping Sweden, spatial analysis 11 km), for the historical period 1971-2000 (reference period), as well as for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 (intermediate) and RCP8.5 (extreme).

As far as the historical period is concerned, the findings of the analysis showed that Heraklion, Crete Island, appears the most favorable bioclimatic conditions at midday (UTC 12:00), followed by Limassol and Malta, while Cairo and Antalya show high frequency and duration of strong/extreme heat stress within the year. Regarding evening hours (UTC 21:00) during summertime, there is a slight cold stress/thermal comfort in Heraklion and Malta, followed by Limassol, Antalya and Cairo with worse bioclimatic conditions.

Based on climate model simulations for 2021-2050 (near future) and 2071-2100 (far future) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for midday (UTC 12:00), Heraklion, Crete Island depicts the best bioclimatic conditions, which can be attributed to the increased frequency and intensity of the Etesians winds, blowing during the summer period of the year contributing to the mitigation of the strong/extreme heat stress. The frequency and the duration of thermal comfort in the evening (UTC 21:00) is expected to increase for both RCPs. Malta shows similar bioclimatic behavior to Heraklion during evening hours, followed by Limassol, Antalya and Cairo, where the light/moderate heat stress occurs with increasing frequency and seasonality.

The results of the bioclimatic analysis will help in the management/dissemination of climate information for tourism purposes. In addition, the methodology used, based on bioclimatic (PET) diagrams, can provide detailed information in order to assess and quantify the climate change impacts on the tourism potential in the eastern Mediterranean.

How to cite: Nastos, P. T., Polychroni, I. D., Kapsomenakis, J., Solomos, S., and Zerefos, C. S.: Climate change impacts on bioclimatic conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6579, 2022.

EGU22-8530 | Presentations | CL4.2

Modeling Ocean Biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea at the Last Glacial Maximum 

Katharina Six and Uwe Mikolajewicz

Present day Mediterranean Sea (MedSea) is an oligotrophic semi-enclosed basin.  Nutrient supply by rivers, net nutrient export through the Strait of the Gibraltar and the basin-wide circulation create a biological desert. Sediment core records, however, indicate periods of higher production during paleo times.

To gain insight into biogeochemical conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), we apply a regional ocean-biogeochemistry model of the Mediterranean Sea.  A consistent forcing is available from a transient simulation with an Earth System Model (ESM) over 22,000 years based, among others, on an ice sheet reconstruction.  The ESM run provides atmospheric forcing fields, being downscaled to the regional setup, temperature and salinity conditions at the open western boundary in the Atlantic, and river runoff.  Nutrient concentrations of river discharge and at the Atlantic boundary are set to present-day estimates.  The automatic bathymetry adjustment to account for sea level variations due to meltwater fluxes is adopted from the ESM simulation. The LGM simulation starts at 22 ka to allow for a 1000 yr spinup run with transient forcing. The LGM period results are compared to a present-day simulation based on the same consistent ESM forcing.  

Colder temperatures and thus lower basin-wide evaporation, as well as a shallower sill depth at the Strait of Gibraltar, lead to lower baroclinic watermass exchange between the MedSea and the Atlantic. The zonal overturning circulation is more sluggish during the LGM than present day.  River discharge to the MedSea increases by 35% during the LGM, causing an increased net primary production near the river mouths.  Despite a higher nutrient inventory of the MedSea at the LGM, net primary production of the entire MedSea is lower than present day. Colder LGM temperatures reduce phytoplankton growth rates and increase the remineralisation length scale.

More characteristics of LGM biogeochemistry are presented and their drivers will be disentangled, also including additional sensitivity studies on changes in bathymetry.        

How to cite: Six, K. and Mikolajewicz, U.: Modeling Ocean Biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea at the Last Glacial Maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8530, 2022.

EGU22-8913 | Presentations | CL4.2

Causal drivers of eastern Mediterranean tropospheric circulation during boreal summer 

Evangelos Tyrlis, Giorgia Di Capua, Daniela Matei, Dim Coumou, and Reik Donner

During boreal summer, large scale subsidence and a persistent northerly flow, known as the Etesians, characterize the tropospheric circulation over the eastern Mediterranean, respectively bringing clear skies and mitigating the emergence of heat waves. Atmospheric drivers over both South Asia and the North Atlantic have been proposed to influence the intraseasonal variability of subsidence and Etesians over the eastern Mediterranean. Here, we employ Causal Effect Networks, obtained by applying the Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) causal discovery algorithm, to identify causal precursors of subsidence and Etesians in a set of atmospheric fields. We find that both wave train activity over the North Atlantic/North American region and convective activity over the northern Indian Ocean are causally related to the 3-day average 850 hPa meridional wind variations over the eastern Mediterranean at a lag of 3-to-6 days. For 3-day average 500 hPa vertical wind velocity, causal precursors over the Middle East and Arabian Sea similar to those identified for the Etesian are found. We further explore in detail the different nature of the causal precursors to the Etesians and subsidence over the eastern Mediterranean by applying varying averaging in the variables representing the involved phenomena.

How to cite: Tyrlis, E., Di Capua, G., Matei, D., Coumou, D., and Donner, R.: Causal drivers of eastern Mediterranean tropospheric circulation during boreal summer, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8913, 2022.

EGU22-10590 | Presentations | CL4.2 | Highlight

IPCC AR6 WGII Cross-Chapter Paper 4: Mediterranean Region 

Nathalie Hilmi, Elham Ali, Jofre Carnicer Cols, Wolfgang Cramer, Elena Georgopoulou, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Cristina Tirado

In the Mediterranean region climate and other environmental changes have become major threats to both ecosystems and human wellbeing. Climate change is expected to be the most important threat to biodiversity in the Mediterranean over the next 10 years, followed by habitat degradation, exploitation, pollution, eutrophication and invasion of species and the loss of biodiversity. Climate change interacts with other environmental problems in the Mediterranean Basin, resulting from land use, pollution and biodiversity loss. The nature of the semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea implies unique physiographic and ecological features. The Mediterranean Sea is considered as one of the hotspots of global biodiversity where the impact of climate change associated with other anthropogenic pressures could be the most destructive. Although it represents only 0.8% of the world's ocean surface, it is home to between 4 and 18% of the world's marine species.

The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable because it cumulates environmental risks, including strong warming and drying, accelerating sea-level, rapid urbanization, increasing pollution of the air and the water, and the impacts of mass tourism. Ecosystems suffer from land degradation including the loss of half of the wetlands, overfishing (20% of fish species are at risk of extinction by 2050), non-sustainable agriculture, wildfires (burnt area may double by 2100) and the invasion of non-indigenous species (‘tropicalization’). These factors strongly impact water resources, biodiversity on land and in the ocean, human health and security.

The effects of climate change in the Mediterranean basin are asymmetric. In the northern and western part of the Mediterranean, situation is heterogeneous, but historical responsibility of greenhouse emissions since industrial revolution is objectively higher than in southern and eastern part. The EU counties are facing impacts of climate change but societies are less vulnerable.  Most countries located in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean suffer the consequences of climate change with greater effects. Climate change can be an added challenge, when a country is already facing structural issues of poverty rate, weakness of infrastructure and social services, critical demographic changes, high unemployment, economic informality and emigration, political instability, corruption and spatial inequality with fast urbanization. All Mediterranean countries are nevertheless facing cross-cutting common issues, such as biodiversity preservation, sustainable development of tourism, commercial links related to food production and consumption, stock of fishes, blue carbon, energy production, political stability, migrations and security. Their interests are linked, because their share a common resource.

The adaptive capacity of ecosystems and humans is expected to be progressively challenged due to the effects of droughts, heat waves, sea-level rise and ocean warming and acidification. Progress towards achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals differs strongly between Mediterranean sub-regions, with north-western countries having stronger resilience than southern and eastern countries.

Our objective is to present the threats and vulnerabilities of the Mediterranean region. Then we will see the impacts on ecosystems, economic sectors and human well-being. Finally, we will present the different adaptation options, their limits and climate-resilient development pathways. 

 

Disclaimer : the content of IPCC reports are pre-decisional and confidential until they are formally accepted by member governments.

 

How to cite: Hilmi, N., Ali, E., Carnicer Cols, J., Cramer, W., Georgopoulou, E., Le Cozannet, G., and Tirado, C.: IPCC AR6 WGII Cross-Chapter Paper 4: Mediterranean Region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10590, 2022.

EGU22-11972 | Presentations | CL4.2

Climate change projections for Greece in the 21st century 

Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Alkiviadis Kalisoras, John Kapsomenakis, Dimitris Melas, Christos S. Zerefos, and Prodromos Zanis

Here, we present an updated assessment of projected climate change over Greece in the near future and at the end of the 21st century. The analysis is based on an ensemble of 11 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations based on historical emission data and three different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Our results strongly point towards a warmer future under all the examined RCPs. Under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, temperature is expected to increase on average by 1.6 oC (12%) in the near future and 4.3 oC (33%) at the end of the century. The number of hot days and tropical nights per year is expected to increase significantly and the number of frost days to decrease. Also, the future will be possibly drier, with statistically robust results for the end-of-the-century period under RCP8.5 only. On average, precipitation is  expected to decrease under RCP8.5 by -0.4 mm day-1 (-16%) and the number of consecutive dry days per year to increase by 15.4 days (30%) at the end of the century.

The authors acknowledge funding from the Action titled "National Νetwork on Climate Change and its Impacts - CLIMPACT" which is implemented under the sub-project 3 of the project "Infrastructure of national research networks in the fields of Precision Medicine, Quantum Technology and Climate Change", funded by the Public Investment Program of Greece, General Secretary of Research and Technology/Ministry of Development and Investments.

 

How to cite: Akritidis, D., Georgoulias, A. K., Kalisoras, A., Kapsomenakis, J., Melas, D., Zerefos, C. S., and Zanis, P.: Climate change projections for Greece in the 21st century, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11972, 2022.

EGU22-12013 | Presentations | CL4.2

Mediterranean Sea warming, nutrient decline, primary production increase, deoxygenation and acidification during the 21st century from high resolution physical and biogeochemical projections under emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 

Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon

Eddy-resolving projections of the physical and biogeochemical state of the Mediterranean Sea under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are here analyzed to assess the impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean marine ecosystems in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. The projections were produced through the offline coupling between the physical model MFS16 and the transport-biogeochemical reactor OGSTM-BFM. The analysis shows during the 21st century an overall warming and an increase in the stratification of the water column, resulting in a weakening of the thermohaline circulation of the basin. The biogeochemical projections show a decline in the dissolved nutrients content and organic matter stock of the euphotic and intermediate layers of the basin and an increase in the net primary production and phytoplankton respiration. Moreover, the projected warming of the water column and the increase in the respiration community will drive a quite uniform surface and subsurface reduction in the oxygen concentration. Finally an acidification of the upper and intermediate layers of the basin driven by the CO2 absorption from the atmosphere is projected. All the projected changes are found to be stronger in the eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. 

How to cite: Reale, M., Cossarini, G., Lazzari, P., Lovato, T., Bolzon, G., Masina, S., Solidoro, C., and Salon, S.: Mediterranean Sea warming, nutrient decline, primary production increase, deoxygenation and acidification during the 21st century from high resolution physical and biogeochemical projections under emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12013, 2022.

EGU22-12089 | Presentations | CL4.2

A multi-faceted, long-term analysis of Mediterranean heatwaves using in-situ temperature observations, remote sensing imagery and large-scale circulation types. 

Ilias Agathangelidis, Constantinos Cartalis, Chris Tzanis, Christos Kourtesiotis, and Kostas Philippopoulos

The Mediterranean basin is one of the most thermally vulnerable regions of the planet, already affected by frequent extreme heat events, which are projected to increase in the future. Using multiple extreme climate indices and daily temperature observations from over 50 meteorological stations in the region (NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network daily database) the dates of past heatwave events were identified from 1961 to 2020. While derived heatwave metrics from threshold-based indices generally differed from more complex, calendar day percentile-based indices (e.g., CTX90PCT), findings confirmed a statistically significant positive trend for the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwave events for the majority of stations (Mann-Kendall test). Next, long-term (years: 2002-2020) daily satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) from the MODIS Aqua platform was used to compute surface thermal anomalies at the station locations. The dates and the summary metrics of the maximum anomalies were compared to the previously derived air temperature heatwave events to assess the feasibility of using LST estimates as a heatwave proxy for areas with a scarce station network. Finally, a physical understanding of the mechanisms behind heatwave trends for Athens, Greece was attempted through the use of large-scale synoptic data. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies were computed from ERA5 reanalysis data (1979-2020); then, an automated classification scheme was modified and applied to detect the circulation types for all past heatwave events for this period in Athens. Results indicated an evolving mixture of circulation types through the decades, associated with different intensities and durations of heatwave events.

How to cite: Agathangelidis, I., Cartalis, C., Tzanis, C., Kourtesiotis, C., and Philippopoulos, K.: A multi-faceted, long-term analysis of Mediterranean heatwaves using in-situ temperature observations, remote sensing imagery and large-scale circulation types., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12089, 2022.

EGU22-1376 | Presentations | CL4.3

A global investigation of CMIP6 simulated extreme precipitation beyond biases in means 

Hebatallah Abdelmoaty, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Chandra Rupa Rajulapati, and Amir AghaKouchak

Climate models are the available tools to assess risks of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. Models simulating historical climate successfully are often reliable to simulate future climate. Here, we assess the performance of CMIP6 models in reproducing the observed annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP) beyond the commonly used methods. This assessment takes three scales: (1) univariate comparison based on L-moments and relative difference measures; (2) bivariate comparison using Kernel densities of mean and L-variation, and of L-skewness and L-kurtosis, and (3) comparison of the entire distribution function using the Generalized Extreme Value () distribution coupled with a novel application of the Anderson-Darling Goodness-of-fit test. The results depict that 70% of simulations have mean and variation of AMP with a percentage difference within 10 from the observations. Also, the statistical shape properties, defining the frequency and magnitude of AMP, of simulations match well with observations. However, biases are observed in the mean and variation bivariate properties. Several models perform well with the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model performing well in all three scales when compared to the ground-based Global Precipitation Climatology (GPCC) data. Finally, the study highlights biases of CMIP6 models in simulating extreme precipitation in the Arctic, Tropics, arid and semi-arid regions.

How to cite: Abdelmoaty, H., Papalexiou, S. M., Rajulapati, C. R., and AghaKouchak, A.: A global investigation of CMIP6 simulated extreme precipitation beyond biases in means, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1376, 2022.

EGU22-2451 | Presentations | CL4.3

A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States 

José M. Garrido-Pérez, Carlos Ordóñez, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Jordan L. Schnell, and Daniel Ethan Horton

Air pollutants accumulate in the near-surface atmosphere when atmospheric scavenging, horizontal dispersion, and vertical escape are reduced. This is often termed "air stagnation". Recent studies have investigated the influence that climate change could exert on the frequency of stagnation in different regions of the globe throughout the 21st century. Although they provide a probabilistic view based on multi-model means, there are still large discrepancies among climate model projections. Storylines of atmospheric circulation change, or physically self-consistent narratives of plausible future events, have recently been proposed as a non-probabilistic means to represent uncertainties in climate change projections. This work applies the storyline approach to 21st century projections of summer air stagnation over Europe and the United States. For that purpose, we use a CMIP6 ensemble to generate stagnation storylines based on the forced response of three remote drivers of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude atmospheric circulation: North Atlantic warming, North Pacific warming, and tropical versus Arctic warming.

Under a high radiative forcing scenario (SSP5-8.5), strong tropical warming relative to Arctic warming is associated with a strengthening and poleward shift of the upper westerlies, which in turn would lead to decreases in stagnation over the northern regions of North America and Europe, as well as increases in some southern regions, as compared to the multi-model mean. On the other hand, North Pacific warming tends to increase the frequency of stagnation over some regions of the U.S. by enhancing the frequency of stagnant winds, while reduced North Atlantic warming does the same over Europe by promoting the frequency of dry days.

Given the response of stagnation to these remote drivers, their evolution in future projections will substantially determine the magnitude of the stagnation increases. Our results show differences of up to 2%/K (~2 stagnant days in summer per degree of global warming) among the storylines for some regions. We will discuss the combination of remote driver responses leading to the highest uncertainties in future air stagnation separately for Europe and the U.S.

How to cite: Garrido-Pérez, J. M., Ordóñez, C., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Schnell, J. L., and Horton, D. E.: A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2451, 2022.

EGU22-2669 | Presentations | CL4.3

The influence of the North Atlantic on vegetation greening patterns in the northern high latitudes 

Alexander J. Winkler and Leonard F. Borchert

Rising CO2 concentrations due to anthropogenic carbon emissions and the resulting warming raise expectations of an increase in biospheric activity in temperature-limited ecosystems. Early satellite observations since the 1980s confirm this expectation, revealing so-called "greening" trends of the high northern vegetation. However, since the early 2000s, these observational records show these greening trends have stagnated in high-latitude Eurasia (HLE), with many regions even reversing to browning trends. We propose here that decadal variations of the North Atlantic ocean could have contributed to these HLE browning trends. 

Our analysis shows that roughly 80% of HLE area has become drier in the last two decades compared to the previous decades. It is mainly in these drying regions that the vegetation exhibits browning trends. Satellite observations of vegetation and the ERA5 reanalysis show HLE browning to be concomitant with a stagnation of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). North Atlantic SST was previously shown to potentially influence remote climate by modulating a circumglobal atmospheric Rossby wave train. Indeed, we find a precipitation decrease over Eurasia to potentially originate from this North Atlantic teleconnection, linking SST stagnation to the observed browning trend.

Next, we turn to fully-coupled Earth system models to assess the plausibility of the proposed cause-and-effect chain. We employ a pattern matching algorithm to select realizations with similar-to-observed North Atlantic SST variations from three large ensembles (MPI-GE, IPSL-LE, and CanESM5). These ensembles enable a clean separation of the unforced signal (internal variability) from the forced vegetation response (CO2 forcing). Our results show that realizations that closely resemble the observed North Atlantic spatio-temporal SST pattern also simulate the respective wave-train and associated precipitation patterns over Eurasia that cause HLE vegetation to change. Thus, the models confirm that unforced decadal variations of HLE vegetation can be modulated by North Atlantic SST via changes in precipitation patterns. In addition, model simulations suggest that the relative decrease in vegetation greenness is accompanied by a reduction in land carbon uptake, such that changes in North Atlantic SST ultimately affect the global carbon balance.

This study therefore demonstrates that the recently observed trend in HLE browning may well be due to an unforced signal originating from the North Atlantic. This implies that even decades-long trends in biospheric variables can emerge from natural climate variability and thus could be incorrectly attributed to an external forcing. This has major implications for the understanding of biospheric dynamics, including carbon uptake and release processes.

How to cite: Winkler, A. J. and Borchert, L. F.: The influence of the North Atlantic on vegetation greening patterns in the northern high latitudes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2669, 2022.

EGU22-4292 | Presentations | CL4.3 | Highlight

Quantifying and understanding very rare climate extremes using ensemble boosting 

Claudia Gessner, Erich M. Fischer, Urs Beyerle, and Reto Knutti

In recent years, unprecedented temperature and precipitation extremes have been observed across the world. With further global warming, climate models project extreme events to get even more intense and likely break observational records by large margins. It is challenging to estimate how extreme climate events could get and to quantify the contribution of physical drivers in the future or even in the present climate? To address these questions, we introduce the ensemble boosting method, a model-based method that generates large samples of re-initialized extreme events in climate simulations. In doing so, the method provides physically consistent storylines of climate extremes that can be used to analyse the driving factors and estimate the very high return levels for the event type beyond observational records. We apply ensemble boosting to heat waves in the millennial pre-industrial control run, made with CESM1 and to heavy precipitation in the large ensemble near future simulations, carried out with CESM2. We find that individual members of the boosted ensembles can substantially exceed the most extreme heat and precipitation events over Europe and North America in the respective climatology. Furthermore, we show that estimated upper bounds of heat correspond to the statistical estimates by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and regression models. Therefore, the framework of ensemble boosting might ultimately contribute to adaption and the stress testing of ecosystems or socioeconomic systems, increasing the resilience to extreme climate stressors.

How to cite: Gessner, C., Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U., and Knutti, R.: Quantifying and understanding very rare climate extremes using ensemble boosting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4292, 2022.

EGU22-4619 | Presentations | CL4.3

Reconstructing zonal precipitation from sparse historical observations using climate model information and statistical learning 

Marius Egli, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Pendergrass, Iris de Vries, and Reto Knutti

Changes in precipitation due to climate change are having and will continue to have substantial societal impact. Although physical process understanding allows insights into some of the model-projected changes, we face many challenges when turning to observations in order to detect these changes, such as large internal variability and limited observational coverage both in time and space.

Here, we aim to address these challenges with a tool from statistical learning, by implementing a regularized linear model to (1) reconstruct historical seasonal full (land+ocean) zonal mean precipitation starting in 1950 and (2) detect anthropogenically forced changes in zonal mean precipitation. The linear model is trained using a climate model large-ensemble archive with its coverage reduced to match gridded station observations on land only. Once trained, the linear model can reconstruct the full zonal mean precipitation from the partial coverage given by observations. The reconstructions (1) are compared against independent satellite observations and other sources of historical precipitation reconstructions. Our approach is successful at recovering a large part of the variability in zonal precipitation. In the Northern hemisphere extra-tropics, with relatively high station coverage, the reconstructions achieve an agreement of R=0.8 (Pearson correlation) or higher with independent satellite precipitation. But correlation values decrease considerably in the Southern hemisphere and parts of the tropics. Next, we estimate trends in the forced response (2) in seasonal zonal-mean precipitation, many of which lie outside the likely range in a preindustrial climate. The detected trends are, in line with the projection of climate models forced with historical greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions but are sensitive to the underlying observational data set.

Our results show that for large scale metrics such as seasonal zonal mean precipitation our reconstruction method can facilitate new insights for the detection and attribution of changes in the hydrological cycle. 

How to cite: Egli, M., Sippel, S., Pendergrass, A., de Vries, I., and Knutti, R.: Reconstructing zonal precipitation from sparse historical observations using climate model information and statistical learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4619, 2022.

EGU22-5090 | Presentations | CL4.3

Detecting the spatio-temporal propagation of heat waves in a regional single-model large ensemble 

Andrea Böhnisch, Elizaveta Felsche, and Ralf Ludwig

Heat waves are among the most hazardous climate extremes in Europe, commonly affecting large regions for a considerable amount of time. Especially in the recent past heat waves account for substantial economic, social and ecologic impacts and loss. Projections suggest that their number, duration and intensity increase under changing climate conditions, stressing the importance of quantifying their characteristics. Yet, apart from the analysis of single historical events, little research is dedicated to the general propagation of heat waves in space and time. 

Heat waves are rare in their occurrence and limited observational data provide little means for robust analyses and the understanding of dynamical spatio-temporal patterns. Therefore, we seek to increase the number of analyzable events by using a single-model initial condition large ensemble of a regional climate model (Canadian Regional Climate Model Version 5, CRCM5-LE). This provides 50 model members of comparable climate statistics to robustly assess various spatial patterns and pathways of European heat waves in a data set of high spatial resolution. 

Using the CRCM5-LE allows us to explore a novel data-driven approach to infer cause-and-effect relationships, in this case the spatio-temporal propagation of spatially distributed phenomena. Our aim is to investigate specifically the transitions and inter-dependencies among heat wave core regions in Europe to better understand their evolution during the recent past.

We define heat waves as a minimum of three consecutive hot days with temperatures above the 95th JJA (1981-2010) percentile. If a reasonable fraction of the domain land area exhibits a hot day, this time step is used for clustering in order to derive core regions. Each core region is represented by a spatially aggregated time series of the cluster footprint. The approach further includes the derivation of directed links between these core regions using causal discovery and the analysis of associated atmospheric conditions.

Results indicate that directed links among core regions of heat wave occurrence over Europe reproduce parts of observed movements. This helps to group and characterize heat waves according to, e.g. seasonality. Examples of these heat wave cluster transitions show an associated shift of high pressure patterns, suggesting that the approach allows capturing the spatial dislocation of heat wave centers. 

How to cite: Böhnisch, A., Felsche, E., and Ludwig, R.: Detecting the spatio-temporal propagation of heat waves in a regional single-model large ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5090, 2022.

EGU22-5131 | Presentations | CL4.3

Future changes in circulation types in the SMHI Large Ensemble 

Klaus Wyser, Felicitas Hansen, Danijel Belusic, and Torben Koenigk

Recently SMHI has completed and published 50-member ensembles for each of the Tier-1 and Tier-2 future scenarios of ScenarioMIP, using the EC-Earth3 model (SMHI-LENS, Wyser et al. 2021). Monthly and daily output from these simulations are freely available on the ESGF and can serve as a base for assessing the uncertainty of climate projections in a single model, changes in the likelihood, magnitude and duration of extremes, changes in the probability for passing tipping points, or changes in the frequency of occurrence of compound events. To our knowledge SMHI-LENS is the only single-model large ensemble that includes all ScenarioMIP scenarios.

As an application of SMHI-LENS we present results from an evaluation of changes in large-scale circulation types (CTs) over the Scandinavian domain between the present climate and two future periods in the different scenarios. For the classification in 10 CTs we are using the Simulated Annealing and Diversified Randomization (SANDRA) method applied to daily sea level pressure fields where the spatial means have been removed (Hansen and Belusic 2021). Most of the 10 CTs occur predominantly in a specific season and can hence be referred to as summer or winter CTs. We find that the frequency of the CTs does not change significantly towards the middle of the 21st century, but that most significant CT frequency changes happen towards the end of the century during summer. The magnitude of the frequency changes is found to be proportional to the warming in the different scenarios. Our results further suggest that the distinction between summer and winter season in terms of CTs becomes more pronounced in the future climate.

Each CT has its specific effect on other variables such as temperature and precipitation, meaning that a specific CT can, for example, be associated with lower-than-normal temperatures or less-than-normal precipitation. In our study, we also investigate how this effect changes in the different future scenarios. For both temperature and precipitation, the spatial extent of the effect change is considerably larger at the end of the century compared to the change at the mid-century, but the average magnitude of the change is similar in both periods. For temperature, the effect change is strongest in the winter half-year for almost all of the 10 CTs.

Ref: Hansen, F. and D. Belušić. "Tailoring circulation type classification outcomes." International Journal of Climatology (2021).

How to cite: Wyser, K., Hansen, F., Belusic, D., and Koenigk, T.: Future changes in circulation types in the SMHI Large Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5131, 2022.

EGU22-7280 | Presentations | CL4.3

Planning for a Large Ensemble based on the HadGEM3 climate model 

Reinhard Schiemann, Rosalyn Hatcher, Bryan Lawrence, Grenville Lister, and Len Shaffrey

Large ensembles of climate-scale model simulations are key tools for assessing climate risks, separating internal variability from external forcing, and interpreting the observational record. Several modelling centres have produced such ensembles over the past years. Here we present early plans for the development of a new Large Ensemble based on the HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3) climate model. The initial plan envisages a 40-member ensemble spanning 150 years of historical/scenario climate (1950-2100) at a resolution of N216 (about 60 km) in the atmosphere and ¼° in the ocean.

This initiative is part of the recently started UK NERC multi-centre project CANARI (Climate change in the Arctic-North Atlantic Region and Impacts on the UK). CANARI aims to advance understanding of the impacts on the UK arising from climate variability and change in the Arctic-North Atlantic region, with a focus on extreme weather and the potential for rapid, disruptive change. While we aim for the new Large Ensemble to become a resource for a wide range of applications, it will support addressing the CANARI science questions in particular. These questions are concerned with, for example, the (i) projected Arctic change and potential lower-latitude influences through atmospheric or oceanic pathways, (ii) the projected change in the large-scale (North Atlantic) ocean/atmosphere circulation, its drivers, and interaction with weather systems, and (iii) projected impacts on the UK arising from extreme weather (windstorms and flooding, blocking, heatwaves and droughts).

This poster invites discussion with the community on all aspects of the design of the new Large Ensemble, and particularly seeks input regarding

  • the choice/number of experiments to follow (from CMIP6 Scenario MIP),
  • the initialisation strategy, and the degree to which slow (10 years and longer) variability, particularly in the ocean, should be sampled, and
  • the desired output.

How to cite: Schiemann, R., Hatcher, R., Lawrence, B., Lister, G., and Shaffrey, L.: Planning for a Large Ensemble based on the HadGEM3 climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7280, 2022.

The frequency of precipitation extremes is set to change in response to a warming climate. Thereby, the change in precipitation extreme event occurrence is influenced by both a shift in the mean and a change in variability. How large the individual contributions from either of them (mean or variability) to the change in precipitation extremes are, is largely unknown. This is however relevant for a better understanding of how and why climate extremes change. The mechanisms behind a change in either the mean or the variability can thereby be very different.

For this study, two sets of forcing experiments from the regional CRCM5 initial-condition large ensemble are used. A set of 50 members with historical and RCP8.5 forcing as well as a 35-member (700 year) ensemble of pre-industrial natural forcing. The concept of the probability risk ratio is used to partition the change in extreme event occurrence into contributions from a change in mean climate or a change in variability.

The results show that the contributions from a change in variability are in parts equally important to changes in the mean, and can even exceed them. The level of contributions shows high spatial variation which underlines the importance of regional processes for changes in extremes. Further, the results reveal a smaller influence of the level of warming and level of extremeness on the individual contributions then the seasonality or temporal aggregation (3h, 24h, 72h). These results highlight the need for a better understanding of changes in climate variability to better understand the mechanisms behind changes in climate extremes.

How to cite: Wood, R. R.: Role of mean and variability change for changes in European seasonal extreme precipitation events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7697, 2022.

EGU22-7861 | Presentations | CL4.3

Identifying patterns of spatial variability within the EuroCORDEX ensemble 

Clair Barnes, Richard Chandler, Chris Brierley, and Raquel Alegre

Ensembles of regional climate projections provide information about the range of possible scenarios of future climate change at the local scale, with more detail and better representation of fine-scale processes than can be provided by lower-resolution global circulation models (GCMs). The CORDEX ensembles are multi-model ensembles, with each member obtained by using a GCM to drive a higher-resolution regional climate model (RCM). Due to resource limitations however, users of regional climate information typically do not want to use an entire ensemble and must select a sample of its members for their purposes. To preserve as much information as possible, such a sample should be chosen to be representative of the variation within the ensemble.

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) has often been used to characterise ensemble variation by apportioning the total variation to differences between the GCMs or between the RCMs (Yip et al., 2011; Déqué et al., 2012), and to produce maps of the geographical regions where variance between the runs is ascribed to one or other model component (Christensen and Kjellström, 2020). However, traditional ANOVA methods require a balanced ensemble in which all possible GCM-RCM pairs are available. The analysis of unbalanced ensembles therefore typically proceeds either by discarding surplus runs or imputing missing ones, or by using computationally intensive Bayesian methods to account for the lack of balance.

We here propose two enhancements to the existing techniques for analysis of ensemble variation. The first is a modification of the standard ANOVA approach, based on the underlying statistical model, that can be applied directly to unbalanced ensembles: the modification is computationally cheap and hence suitable for routine application, and provides ranges of variation that are potentially attributable to the different sources.

The second enhancement adds further detail to the partitioning of variation, using an eigenanalysis that characterises the principal spatial modes of variation within an ensemble. As well as identifying the dominant spatial patterns of variation associated with the GCMs and RCMs, the analysis characterises the contribution from each model, for example by identifying models with different treatments of orography, rain shadows, or urban heat island effects. As well as informing the selection of subsets of ensemble members, this enhancement offers the possibility of emulating missing ensemble members where the GCM-RCM matrix is only partially filled. The method is applied to the EuroCORDEX ensemble with a focus on the UK.

 

References

Christensen, O. and Kjellström, E. (2020). Partitioning uncertainty components of mean climate and climate change in a large ensemble of European regional climate model projections. Climate Dynamics, 54:4293–4308.
Déqué, M., Somot, S., Sanchez-Gomez, E. et al. (2012). The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability. Climate Dynamics, 38:951–964 (2012).
Yip, S., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., and Hawkins, E. (2011). A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 24(17):4634–4643.

How to cite: Barnes, C., Chandler, R., Brierley, C., and Alegre, R.: Identifying patterns of spatial variability within the EuroCORDEX ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7861, 2022.

EGU22-8735 | Presentations | CL4.3 | Highlight

Processes leading to extreme seasons – research at the weather-climate interface based on reanalyses and large ensemble climate simulations 

Heini Wernli, Urs Beyerle, Maxi Boettcher, Erich Fischer, Emmanouil Flaounas, Christoph Frei, Katharina Hartmuth, Mauro Hermann, Reto Knutti, Flavio Lehner, Lukas Papritz, Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, and Philipp Zschenderlein

Research on extreme weather typically investigated the physical and dynamical processes involved in the formation of specific meteorological events that occur on time scales of hours to a several days (e.g., heavy precipitation events, windstorms, heat waves). Such events can be extremely hazardous, but for certain socioeconomic sectors the seasonal aggregation of weather is particularly harmful. These sectors include, for instance, agriculture, forestry, energy, and reinsurance. This presentation introduces the concept of “extreme seasons” as an important and not yet thoroughly investigated research field at the interface of weather and climate science. Extreme seasons are defined as seasons during which a particular meteorological or impact-related parameter (or a combination thereof) strongly deviates from climatology. An important conclusion of the presentation will be that large ensemble climate simulations (here using an extended CESM1-LENS data set with 6-hourly output of 3D fields), with about 1000 simulated years per climate period, are an essential resource enabling novel quantitative insight into the processes leading to and characteristics of extreme seasons. The presentation provides examples for the identification of extreme seasons and emphasizes the importance of studying their substructure, including the occurrence of specific weather systems. A first approach to systematically study extreme seasons is to consider the top 10 seasons (for a given metric) in the large ensemble at every grid point, e.g., the 10 wettest winters or hottest summers, or the 10 summers with the largest vapour pressure deficit (as an example for a more impact-related metric). Alternatively, one can look at anomalies in a multi-dimensional parameter phase space, identifying extreme seasons that result from a highly unusual combination of, e.g., surface temperature, precipitation, and surface energy balance. Or, using a pragmatic method based on fitting a statistical model to seasonal mean values at each grid point, spatially coherent extreme season objects can be identified that exceed a local return period threshold of, e.g., 40 years. The same statistical approach can be applied to ERA5 reanalyses to compare characteristics of extreme season objects (e.g., their size and intensity) in climate models with observation-based data. With this approach we can meaningfully estimate how often, e.g., an observed extreme winter like the cold North American 2013/14 winter is expected anywhere in midlatitude regions. The last part of the presentation addresses the substructure and weather system characteristics of extreme seasons. Illustrative results are shown that address the questions: (i) Where are extremely hot summers the result of the warmest days being anomalously hot vs. the coldest days being anomalously mild? (ii) Where are wettest seasons the result of more frequent wet days vs. more intense precipitation on wet days? and (iii) How does the frequency of weather systems and their precipitation efficiency change during the wettest seasons? The answers to these questions reveal interesting and large regional differences.

How to cite: Wernli, H., Beyerle, U., Boettcher, M., Fischer, E., Flaounas, E., Frei, C., Hartmuth, K., Hermann, M., Knutti, R., Lehner, F., Papritz, L., Röthlisberger, M., Sprenger, M., and Zschenderlein, P.: Processes leading to extreme seasons – research at the weather-climate interface based on reanalyses and large ensemble climate simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8735, 2022.

EGU22-10314 | Presentations | CL4.3

A novel approach to large-ensemble modelling: the time-slice Large Ensemble 

Laura Muntjewerf, Richard Bintanja, Thomas Reerink, and Karin Van der Wiel

Large-ensemble modelling has become an increasingly popular approach to study the climatic response to external forcing. The idea of a large ensemble is to generate different realizations of a forced climate to explicitly reproduce the systems internal variability. With these large datasets it is not only possible to quantify and statistically test changes in the mean climate, but also changes in climate variability and subsequent changes in extremes. Typically, the approach to generate a large ensemble set is to force the model with a transient forcing and start the different simulations from slightly different initial conditions. However, this is expensive due to the high computational demand of full-complexity GCMs or ESMs.

Here we propose a large-ensemble design that generates a multitude of years to describe the climate states of interest, while being more economical regarding computational resources: a time-slice Large Ensemble. The core of the concept is to generate multiple time slices rather than long transient simulations. The time slices represent the present-day climate and a future warmer climate. These are segments of, for example, 10-years; too short to show significant climate change. Using stochastic physics, we add a randomizing component to the simulations. This allows us to branch multiple simulations from one set of initial conditions.

We present the advantages and limitations of this design and we quantify the underlying assumptions. Further, we demonstrate examples of analyses from earlier work for which this type of large ensemble is well (or better) suited, in particular for studying future extreme events and finding analogues of observed extreme events. Finally, we present ongoing work on the generation and analysis of a new time-slice large-ensemble dataset with EC-Earth v3. The experimental set-up is to branch off from 16 full historical and SSP2-4.5 simulations to represent the present-day climate and a future +2K climate.

How to cite: Muntjewerf, L., Bintanja, R., Reerink, T., and Van der Wiel, K.: A novel approach to large-ensemble modelling: the time-slice Large Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10314, 2022.

EGU22-10421 | Presentations | CL4.3

Classification of atmospheric circulation types over Europe in a CMIP6 Large Ensemble using Deep Learning 

Magdalena Mittermeier, Maximilian Weigert, Helmut Küchenhoff, and Ralf Ludwig

The 29 circulation types by Hess & Brezowsky, called “Großwetterlagen”, are one of the most established classification schemes of the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns influencing Europe. They are widely used in order to assess linkages between atmospheric forcing and surface conditions e.g. extreme events like floods or heat waves. Because of the connection between driving circulation type and extreme event, it is of high interest to understand future changes in the occurrence of circulation types in the context of climate change. Even though the “Großwetterlagen” have been commonly used in conjunction with historic data, only very few studies examine future trends in the frequency distribution of these circulation types using climate models. Among the potential limitations for the application of “Großwetterlagen” to climate models are the lack of an open-source classification method and the high range of internal variability. Due to the dynamic nature of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes, it is highly relevant to consider the range of internal variability when studying future changes in circulation patterns and to separate the climate change signal from noise.

We have therefore developed an open-source, automated method for the classification of the “Großwetterlagen” using deep learning and we apply this method to the SMHI-LENS, an initial-condition single-model large ensemble of the CMIP6 generation with 50 members on a daily resolution. A convolutional neural network has been trained to classify the circulation patterns using the atmospheric variables sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500 hPa at 5° resolution. The convolutional neural network is trained for this supervised classification task with a long-term historic record of the “Großwetterlagen”, which covers the 20th century. It is derived from a subjective catalog of the German Weather Service with daily class affiliations and atmospheric variables from ECMWFs’ reanalysis dataset of the 20th century, ERA-20C.

We present the challenges of the deep learning based classification of subjectively defined circulation types and quantify the uncertainty range intrinsic to deep neural networks using deep ensembles. We furthermore demonstrate the benefits of this automated classification of “Großwetterlagen” with respect to the application to large datasets of climate model ensembles. Our results show the ensemble-averaged future trends in the occurrence of “Großwetterlagen” and the range of internal variability, including the signal-to-noise ratio, for the CMIP6 SMHI-LENS under the SSP37.0 scenario.

How to cite: Mittermeier, M., Weigert, M., Küchenhoff, H., and Ludwig, R.: Classification of atmospheric circulation types over Europe in a CMIP6 Large Ensemble using Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10421, 2022.

EGU22-10844 | Presentations | CL4.3

A potential driver of Eurasian winter cooling in CESM large ensemble 

Ye-Jun Jun, Seok-Woo Son, and Hera Kim

Despite the ongoing global warming, Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) has been decreasing in recent decades. This study investigates the nature of Eurasian winter cooling and its reproductivity in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble simulation (CESM-LE). It is found that Eurasian winter cooling and the related atmospheric circulation change are not captured by the model ensemble mean. When 40 ensemble members are divided into two groups, ensembles with Eurasian cooling tend to show a positive sea surface temperature (SST) trend over the western Pacific warm pool, whereas the other group has the opposite SST trend. The causal relationship between tropical SST warming and Eurasian winter cooling is further tested by conducting a series of linear baroclinic model experiments. These experiments reveal that the warm pool warming and the resultant convection can effectively excite the Rossby wave train that resembles atmospheric circulation change shown in the Eurasian cooling ensembles. Specifically, a cyclonic circulation forms over the Aleutian region through the teleconnection and it is followed by an anticyclonic circulation over Siberia resulting from mass redistribution. This result indicates that Eurasian winter cooling in CESM-LE is possibly determined by the internal variability of tropical SST. It also suggests that the recent Eurasian winter cooling has been likely influenced by tropical climate variability.

How to cite: Jun, Y.-J., Son, S.-W., and Kim, H.: A potential driver of Eurasian winter cooling in CESM large ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10844, 2022.

EGU22-11097 | Presentations | CL4.3

Can interannual to decadal variability help increase the accuracy of climate sensitivity estimates? 

Ghyslaine Boschat, Scott Power, and Robert Colman

Climate sensitivity refers to the amount of global surface warming that will occur in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations when compared to pre-industrial levels. Understanding climate sensitivity and reducing uncertainty in the estimation of climate sensitivity are therefore critical to reducing spread in projected climate change under given scenarios. The aim of this study is to estimate real-world Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) by exploiting relationships found between observable parameters and the magnitude of climate change. We develop an emergent constraint based on surface temperature variability, which we test using preindustrial control and historical simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. We estimate the relationship between model-to-model differences (M2MDs) in ECS and M2MDs in global, tropical and tropical Pacific temperature variability, using the various measures of variability on interannual through to multidecadal timescales. We find higher correlations between MDMDs in ECS and M2MDs in the standard deviation of temperature variability in the tropics, which peaks at the decadal timescale, with larger spread in CMIP6 models. These results are then optimally combined to constrain observed temperature decadal variability and provide a distribution of real-world ECS. 

How to cite: Boschat, G., Power, S., and Colman, R.: Can interannual to decadal variability help increase the accuracy of climate sensitivity estimates?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11097, 2022.

The impact of volcanic forcing on tropical precipitation is investigated in a new set of sensitivity experiments within the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble framework. Five ensembles are created, each containing 100 realizations for an idealized “Pinatubo-like” equatorial volcanic eruption with emissions covering a range of 2.5 - 40 Tg sulfur (S). The ensembles provide an excellent database to disentangle the influence of volcanic forcing on monsoons and tropical hydroclimate over the wide spectrum of the climate's internal variability. Monsoons are generally weaker for two years after volcanic eruptions and their weakening is a function of emissions. However, only a stronger than Pinatubo-like eruption (> 10 Tg S) leads to significant and substantial monsoon changes, and some regions (such as North and South Africa, South America and South Asia) are much more sensitive to this kind of forcing than the others. The decreased monsoon precipitation is strongly tied to the weakening of the regional tropical overturning. The reduced atmospheric net energy input at the ITCZ due to the volcanic eruption and, under negligible changes in the gross moist stability, requires a slowdown of the circulation as a consequence of less moist static energy exported away from the ascent.

How to cite: D'Agostino, R. and Timmreck, C.: Sensitivity of regional monsoons to idealised equatorial volcanic eruption of different sulfur emission strengths, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11547, 2022.

EGU22-11935 | Presentations | CL4.3

Global glacier evolution over the last millennium and the influence of climate forcings on the mass balance 

Anouk Vlug, Ben Marzeion, Matthias Prange, and Fabien Maussion

Mass loss of glaciers and ice caps has been one of the major contributors to sea-level rise over the past century. Glaciers respond slowly to a changing climate. Therefore, glacier evolution over the past century is partly a result of prior changes in the climate, resulting both from internal variability in the climate system and changes in external forcings. Here we present a simulation of global glacier evolution over the period 850-2000 CE and assess the influence that different climate forcings have on the glacier mass balance. The glacier evolution simulation thus serves as a base for the mass balance attribution experiment.

The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) was used to simulate glacier geometry and mass balance evolution of land-terminating glaciers. The dynamic simulations were forced with the full length of the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), a climate timeseries covering the period 0-2000 CE, using the first part for spin-up only. The initialization of the glacier states in 850 CE was done with a calibration procedure, making use of glaciers with a relatively short memory for initializing those with a longer one.

To assess the influence of different climate forcings (volcanic, greenhouse gases (GHG), orbital, land cover and land use, solar and anthropogenic ozone and aerosols) on glacier mass balance, simulations of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) are being used. The CESM-LME fully forced, single forced and 850 CE control simulations are used to force OGGM in climatic mass balance simulations. In those simulations the glacier geometries are prescribed with those from the LMR forced dynamic simulation, in order to avoid biases in the attribution caused by deviating glacier evolutions under the different forcings.

Results show that the changes in the GHG forcing have little influence on the SMB from 850 to ~1850 CE. After that the influence becomes increasingly more negative. All other forcings that have been assessed here have positive contribution to glacier mass balance over the last millennium. Although the influence of land use and land cover change has not received a lot of attention before in this context, it has a substantial influence on global glacier mass in our simulations. However, the influence of the forcings differs strongly between regions.

How to cite: Vlug, A., Marzeion, B., Prange, M., and Maussion, F.: Global glacier evolution over the last millennium and the influence of climate forcings on the mass balance, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11935, 2022.

EGU22-12305 | Presentations | CL4.3

ModE-Sim - A new medium-size AGCM ensemble to analyze climate variability in the modern era 

Ralf Hand, Eric Samakinwa, Laura Hövel, Veronika Valler, and Stefan Brönnimann

We introduce a 36 to 40-member ensemble of simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 that is designed to form the basis for a 3-dimensional climate reconstruction dataset in the PALAEO-RA project. It covers the years 1420 to 2009, the period for which combining natural proxies such as tree rings and archives of society such as documentary data allows to perform global climate reconstructions. However, the information provided by these historical sources is usually sparse in temporal and spatial resolution. Our simulations provide the necessary background for data assimilation and thus complement the historical information by adding physical constraints implemented in the model formulation. Our experimental setup is designed to determine the range of internal climate variability under prescribed forcings. It is oriented on the PMIP4 setup with slight modifications, using realistic ocean boundary conditions (SST and sea ice cover) and radiative forcings while also accounting for uncertainties in these.

Our presentation will give an overview of our experimental setup and show the results of the first applications. We present an evaluation of the ensemble, including measures on how well the ensemble can sample the internal variability of some variables of interest. Beyond this, we hope to stimulate a discussion on possible further applications.

How to cite: Hand, R., Samakinwa, E., Hövel, L., Valler, V., and Brönnimann, S.: ModE-Sim - A new medium-size AGCM ensemble to analyze climate variability in the modern era, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12305, 2022.

EGU22-12502 | Presentations | CL4.3

The Impacts of SST-Nudging on Performance of Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Representing the Euro-Mediterranean Climate 

Emir Toker, Mehmet Ilicak, Gokhan Danabasoglu, and Omer Lutfi Sen

The Mediterranean Basin, including the Mediterranean Sea and the surrounding countries, is referred to as a hotspot in terms of climate change, primarily because of a basin-wide drying trend projected for its future. The Mediterranean Sea plays an important role in the climate of the basin through air-sea interactions, and it is, therefore, important to understand how it is coupled with global as well as regional atmosphere. Coarse resolution fully coupled Earth System Models (ESM) show inaccurate results in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea and Europe. Better representation of the Mediterranean Sea SST (MedSST) by ESMs is a critical issue for the Euro-Mediterranean climate.

In this study, we conduct three simulations using the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM): i) a historical control simulation integrated for the 1850-2014 period subject to anthropogenic forcings; ii) a Mediterranean Pacemaker-I (MedP-I) experiment where MedSST is nudged to the monthly Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) starting from 1880; and iii) a Mediterranean Pacemaker-II (MedP-II) experiment where the MedSST is nudged to the Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST)  starting from 1980. In both pacemaker experiments, in comparison with the control simulation, nudging of the MedSST affects the poleward energy flux transported by the atmospheric latent and dry heat, and changes the total meridional energy flux by more than ±0.1 PW over lower latitudes. Similarly, net radiation flux at the surface is changed by about ±2 W/m2 over the Mediterranean Basin. The fidelity of the nudging method was investigated by comparing solutions from MedP-I and MedP-II with respective fields from the control simulation and those from observations, i.e., World Ocean Atlas, Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST, Climate Prediction Center, and European Observations for the 1981 - 2010 period. The control simulation shows higher surface temperatures than observations and overestimates the total precipitation over Euro-Mediterranean and Turkey. In contrast, both MedP-I and MedP-II show improvements in reproducing total precipitation over the Euro-Mediterranean region, Turkey, and at the entrance of the Gibraltar Strait. While MedP-I has improvements over the northeast Europe and the southern Mediterranean Basin regarding the surface temperatures, MedP-II has some improvements over Turkey and at the coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea. MedP-II has more improvements for the SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) values over the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea compared to MedP-I. Additionally, MedP-II has a better representation of the North Atlantic SSS bias compared to the control simulation, while both MedP-I and MedP-II have some SST improvements for different areas over the North Atlantic. Core climate indices defined by the European Climate Assessment and Dataset project are calculated using simulated daily parameters and results are compared with the Global Land Data Assimilation System dataset. Accordingly, MedP-II is found to have improvements over more areas, especially for the indices calculated by using daily precipitation. Overall, we conclude that Mediterranean Sea Pacemaker simulations improve our understanding of how the Mediterranean Sea impacts the surface temperature and precipitation over the Euro-Mediterranean.

How to cite: Toker, E., Ilicak, M., Danabasoglu, G., and Sen, O. L.: The Impacts of SST-Nudging on Performance of Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Representing the Euro-Mediterranean Climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12502, 2022.

EGU22-13097 | Presentations | CL4.3 | Highlight

Exploring the impact of climate change for biological climate variables using observations and multi-model initial condition large ensembles 

Jared Bowden, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Adam J. Terando, Madeleine Rubenstein, Shawn Carter, Sarah Weiskopf, and Hai Thanh Nguyen

Species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations.  However, there is significant variability in observed species range shifts and differences in exposure to climate change may explain some of the variability amongst species.  But this requires identifying regions that have experienced detectable changes in those aspects of the climate system that species are sensitive to. 

To better understand species exposure to climate change, we estimate the time of emergence of climate change for 19 biologically relevant climate variables using observations and initial condition large ensembles from five different climate models.   The time of emergence (ToE) is calculated using Signal/Noise (S/N) thresholds.  The S/N threshold applied in this study is >=2, but this threshold can be easily modified to represent species that are more or less sensitive to climate change.  Preliminary findings from the initial condition large ensembles indicates the strongest emergence for the temperature metrics within the tropical oceanic regions in the absence of upwelling. The earliest emergence over the oceans is found within the western warm pool of the Pacific.  Notable places that haven’t emerged for the temperature metrics include both the North Atlantic and Pacific.  The ToE of a climate change signal for the temperature metrics over land is spatially complex, which may partially explain the complex observed range shifts for terrestrial species.  For instance, multiple initial condition large ensembles indicate a signal has emerge in the most recent decades only for the western and northeastern parts United States.

How to cite: Bowden, J., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Terando, A. J., Rubenstein, M., Carter, S., Weiskopf, S., and Nguyen, H. T.: Exploring the impact of climate change for biological climate variables using observations and multi-model initial condition large ensembles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13097, 2022.

EGU22-741 | Presentations | CL4.7

Long-term evolution of eddying oceans in a warming world 

Nathan Beech, Thomas Jung, Tido Semmler, Thomas Rackow, Qiang Wang, and Sergey Danilov

Mesoscale ocean eddies impact atmosphere-ocean gas exchange, carbon sequestration, and nutrient transport. Studies have attempted to identify trends in eddy activity using satellite altimetry; however, it is difficult to distinguish between robust trends and natural variability within the short observational record. Using a novel climate model that exploits the variable-resolution capabilities of unstructured meshes in the ocean component to concentrate computational resources in eddy-rich regions, we assess global mesoscale eddies and their long-term response to climate change at an unprecedented scale. The modeled results challenge the significance of some trends identified by observational studies, as well as the effectiveness of linear trends in assessing eddy kinetic energy (EKE) change. Some anticipated changes to ocean circulation, such as a poleward shift of major ocean currents and eddy saturation in the Southern Ocean, are reinforced by the modeled EKE changes. Several novel insights regarding the evolution of EKE in a warming world are also proposed, such as a decrease of EKE along the Gulf Stream in unison with weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC); increasing Agulhas leakage; and accelerating, non-linear increases of EKE in the basins of the Kuroshio Current, Brazil and Malvinas Currents, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC).

How to cite: Beech, N., Jung, T., Semmler, T., Rackow, T., Wang, Q., and Danilov, S.: Long-term evolution of eddying oceans in a warming world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-741, 2022.

EGU22-3866 | Presentations | CL4.7

Recent Hadley circulation strengthening: a trend or multidecadal variability? 

Žiga Zaplotnik, Matic Pikovnik, and Lina Boljka

This study explores the possible drivers of the recent Hadley circulation strengthening in the modern reanalyses. Predominantly, two recent generations of reanalyses provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are used: the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) and the interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim). Some results are also evaluated against other long-term reanalyses. To assess the origins of the Hadley cell (HC) strength variability we employ the Kuo-Eliassen (KE) equation. ERA5 shows that both HCs were strengthening prior to 2000s, but they have been weakening or remained steady afterwards. Most of the long-term variability in the strength of the HCs is explained by the meridional gradient of diabatic (latent) heating, which is related to precipitation gradients. However, the strengthening of both HCs in ERA5 is larger than the strengthening expected from the observed zonal-mean precipitation gradient (via Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP). This suggests that the HC strength trends in the recent decades in ERA5 can be explained partly as an artifact of the misrepresentation of latent heating and partly through (physical) long-term variability. To show that the latter is true, we analyze ERA5 preliminary data for the 1950-1978 period, other long-term (e.g. 20th century) reanalyses, and sea surface temperature observational data. This reveals that the changes in the HC strength can be a consequence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and related diabatic and frictional processes, which in turn drive the global HC variability. This work has implications for further understanding of the long-term variability of the Hadley circulation.

How to cite: Zaplotnik, Ž., Pikovnik, M., and Boljka, L.: Recent Hadley circulation strengthening: a trend or multidecadal variability?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3866, 2022.

EGU22-5121 | Presentations | CL4.7

Changes in the global atmospheric energy transport separated by spatial scales in a warming world 

Patrick Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, Tuomas Ilkka Henrikki Heiskanen, and Richard Bintanja

The global atmospheric circulation determines the local weather and climate. To better understand this circulation and how it may change in a warming world, we separate the atmospheric energy transport by the spatial scale, the quasi-stationary and transient nature, and the latent and dry-static component in the ERA-5 reanalysis and climate-model simulations with EC-Earth. Different to previous studies that distinguish the scale by wave-numbers, here the meso, synoptic and planetary scales are separated at wavelengths below 2000km, between 2-8000km, and above the latter, respectively. The scale (wavelength) of most transient energy transport is around 5000km for all latitudes and is associated with baroclinic, synoptic-scale cyclones. Transient, synoptic-scale waves are the largest contributor to the energy transport at all latitudes outside the tropics, where the meridional overturning circulation is dominant. Planetary-scale waves are both of quasi-stationary and transient character, strongest at latitudes with much orography, and responsible for most of the inter-annual variability of the energy transport. The energy transport associated with mesoscale waves is negligible.

In a warming world, the moisture transport increases everywhere and in all components, however strongest for planetary waves, making dry areas dryer and moist areas moister, and supporting large and long-lasting events that favour floods and droughts. The total energy transport increases at latitudes smaller than 60 degrees, with the main contribution from quasi-stationary, planetary-scale waves, indicating that weather patterns become more persistent. The changing energy transport can be associated both with changing zonal gradients in temperature and with an atmospheric circulation that becomes more effective in transporting energy.

How to cite: Stoll, P., Graversen, R. G., Heiskanen, T. I. H., and Bintanja, R.: Changes in the global atmospheric energy transport separated by spatial scales in a warming world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5121, 2022.

I use thermodynamics and an Earth system approach to determine how much kinetic energy the atmosphere is physically capable of generating at large scales from the solar radiative forcing.  The work done to generate and maintain large-scale atmospheric motion can be seen as the consequence of an atmospheric heat engine, which is driven by the difference in solar radiative heating between the tropics and the poles.  The resulting motion transports heat, which depletes this differential solar heating and the associated, large-scale temperature difference, which drives this energy conversion in the first place.  This interaction between the thermodynamic driver (temperature difference) and the resulting dynamics (heat transport) is critical for determining the maximum power that can be generated.  It leads to a maximum in the global mean generation rate of kinetic energy of about 1.7 W m-2, which matches rates inferred from observations of about 2.1 - 2.5 W m-2 very well.  This represents less than 1% of the total absorbed solar radiation that is converted into kinetic energy. Although it would seem that the atmosphere is extremely inefficient in generating motion, thermodynamics shows that the atmosphere works as hard as it can to generate the energy contained in the winds.  I then show that this view of atmospheric dynamics is essentially the same as a maximised generation rate of Available Potential Energy (APE) for the Lorenz energy cycle, and that it is also consistent with the outcome of the proposed principle of Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) while representing a more physically interpretable approach.  This supports the notion that Earth system processes evolve to and operate near their thermodynamic limit, which permits the use of this constraint to do climate science analytically with less empirical input.

How to cite: Kleidon, A.: How much kinetic energy can the large-scale atmospheric circulation at best generate?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5417, 2022.

EGU22-5439 | Presentations | CL4.7

Water isotopic imprints of the Pliocene Pacific Walker Circulation 

Theodor Mayer, Ran Feng, and Tripti Bhattacharya

Ocean-atmosphere coupled models predict pronounced weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) with increasing CO2 concentration due to enhanced tropospheric stability and reduced convective mass overturning. However, current observational results are inconsistent and do not confirm a clear weakening signal. The detection of the signature of increasing CO2 is in part impeded by substantial internal variability and anthropogenic aerosol forcings. Here we explore the possibility of using a paleoclimatic analogue to understand the contemporary PWC sensitivity to CO2 changes. We focus on the interval from mid-Piacenzian (MP, 3.3 – 3.0 Ma) to early Pleistocene (~2.4 Ma). The MP had elevated CO2 concentrations (~400ppm) and geography, topology, and vegetation similar to today. Following the MP global CO2 and temperature decreased, leading to the intensification of the Northern hemisphere glaciation. We seek to identify potential proxy constraints on model simulated PWC sensitivity to CO2 forcing by focusing on changes in the hydroclimatology during this time interval. We developed several sets of isotope-tracking enabled CESM version 1.2 simulations, which utilize pre-Industrial and Pliocene boundary conditions, different CO2 levels, and water tagging of 11 oceanographic regions to track the life cycles of various water species (H216O, H218O and HD16O). Preliminary results show that Pliocene boundary conditions have little impact on the relationship between the CO2 forcing and the intensity of PWC. The precipitation δD contrast between the eastern and western tropical Pacific, scales well with the PWC strength, suggesting high potential for developing PWC strengths proxy with precipitation isotopic records from both sides of the tropical Pacific. Our ongoing work will further identify physical processes responsible for the simulated precipitation isotopic signals: i.e., whether they reflect changes in the moisture source, moisture transport, or moist convection at the destination. Additionally, prescribed-SST simulations will also be conducted to quantify the isotopic imprints of changing tropospheric instability from SST changes.

How to cite: Mayer, T., Feng, R., and Bhattacharya, T.: Water isotopic imprints of the Pliocene Pacific Walker Circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5439, 2022.

EGU22-5897 | Presentations | CL4.7

The variations of temperature extremes over the wintertime Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2018 

Yinglin Tian, Deyu Zhong, and Axel Kleidon

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the “World Roof”, has significant influences on hydrological and atmospheric circulation at both regional and global scales. As a result, an adequate understanding of TP climate change is of great importance. In this study, the temporospatial variations of temperature extremes over the TP are investigated based on the station and gridded data provided by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Mann-Kendall test. In addition, the typical large-scale circulations along with the temperature extremes are analyzed using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis data. It is found that while the frequency of the temperature extremes is observed to have gone through significant variations from 1979 to 2018, the intensity of the temperature extremes has no significant change. On the one hand, the frequency of the warm days and nights is getting higher over the southeastern part and northwestern TP; on the other hand, most area of the eastern TP has witnessed a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of cold days and nights, together suggesting a warming TP. Moreover, the distribution of the long-term changes in the warm days and the cold nights resemble those of the multi-year tendencies of the maximum and minimum temperature. Furthermore, both warm days and nights occur with a significant anti-cyclone over the TP for continuous days, which might allow for more solar radiation arriving at the surface and also favors more adiabatic heating along with the sinking movement of the air parcels. Our results imply a possible linkage between the long-term climate change in the TP, the temperature extremes over the TP, and the large-scale circulations.

How to cite: Tian, Y., Zhong, D., and Kleidon, A.: The variations of temperature extremes over the wintertime Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2018, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5897, 2022.

EGU22-7235 | Presentations | CL4.7

Wave decomposition of energy transport using deep-learning 

Tuomas Ilkka Henrikki Heiskanen and Rune Graversen

Energy transport in the atmosphere is accomplished by systems of several length scales, from cyclones to Rossby waves. From recently developed Fourier and wavelet based methods it has been found that the planetary component of the latent heat transport affects the Arctic surface temperatures more than its dry-static counterpart and the synoptic scale component of the latent heat transport.  

However, both the Fourier and wavelet based methods require enormous amounts of data and are time consuming to process. The Fourier and wavelet decompositions are computed  from 6 hourly data, throughout the whole vertical column of the atmosphere. The data required are usually only available from reanalysis archives, or possibly from climate model experiments where a goal is to examine the decomposed energy transport. However, the vast CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives are out of reach for the exact computations of the Fourier and wavelet decompositions. Even if all the data were available in the CMIP archives, it would be a computationally, and storage-wise, intensive task to compute the Fourier and wavelet decompositions for a large selection of the CMIP experiments.

Here we suggest a deep-learning approach to approximate the decomposed energy transport from significantly less data than the original methods. The idea is to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) on ERA5 data, where we have already computed the Fourier decomposition of the energy transport. The CNN is trained on data at 850hPa in the atmosphere on a daily temporal resolution. The required data are only a small fraction of the data required to compute the exact Fourier decompositon of the energy transport. Once the CNN is trained, the model is tested on data from the EC-Earth climate model. For EC-Earth we have an ensemble of model runs where the energy transport is decomposed using the Fourier method, hence the CNN may be evaluated on the EC-Earth dataset.

The CNN based energy transport decomposition matches well with the classically computed energy transport from EC-Earth.The CNN captures the mean meridional transport well, and the projected changes from the 1950s to the 2090s in EC-Earth. Additionally the CNN model captures the day to day variability well, as regressions of temperature on the transport from the CNNcomputations and the classical Fourier decomposition are similar. Further we may investigate how the decomposed energy transport changes in a range of CMIP models and experiments

How to cite: Heiskanen, T. I. H. and Graversen, R.: Wave decomposition of energy transport using deep-learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7235, 2022.

EGU22-7317 | Presentations | CL4.7

Bias teleconnections: atmospheric variability associated with biases in remote regions 

Yuan-Bing Zhao, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar

Atmospheric spatial and temporal variability are closely related with the former being relatively well assessed compared to the latter. New opportunities for understanding the spatio-temporal variability spectrum are offered by coupled high-resolution climate models. However, the models still suffer from significant systematic errors (biases) calling for an approach that assesses circulation variability in relation to biases. Furthermore, biases in simulated variability are often of remote origin; for example, biases in the Atlantic sea-surface temperature in boreal winter may be responsible for changes in simulated variability over Asia.

We present a novel framework for the multivariate, multi-scale variability evaluation in relation to remote biases. Centennial simulations are carried out using a general circulation model PLASIM and a perfect-model framework. Biases in simulated circulation originate from regional errors in the surface forcing by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). A reference simulation is forced with the monthly SST from ERA-20C reanalyses from January 1900 to December 2010. Sensitivity simulations are forced with the same SST with addition of regional perturbations that mimic the errors in the surface forcing of the atmosphere and lead to systematic errors in the simulated mean state and temporal variance. The erroneous SST is respectively located in tropical basins of Indian ocean, Western Pacific, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, and Atlantic, and in extra-tropical areas of North Pacific and North Atlantic.

The bias is the time-averaged difference between the reference and sensitivity simulations. Using the normal-mode function decomposition, the amplitude and phase of the bias can be related to deficiencies in spatial and temporal variance of the two main dynamical regimes: quasi-geostrophic regime and unbalanced circulation. The results show that biases are mainly established in the zonal-mean state and at planetary scales of balanced flow. In boreal winter, the biases at scales with zonal wavenumber k>0 are typically manifested in the barotropic Rossby wave train across the Northern Hemisphere. The structure of tropical biases is that of unbalanced flow, projecting predominantly on the Kelvin wave and the vertical baroclinic structure. The effects of biases on spatio-temporal variability are further investigated in spectral space.

How to cite: Zhao, Y.-B., Lunkeit, F., and Žagar, N.: Bias teleconnections: atmospheric variability associated with biases in remote regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7317, 2022.

EGU22-7957 | Presentations | CL4.7

The relationship between atmospheric heat transport and monsoonal precipitation variability 

MD Rabiul Awal, Andrew Turner, and David Ferreira

During the boreal summer monsoon, the temperature gradient between land and ocean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) facilitates large transports of moist air masses towards the land regions, where their convergence causes precipitation. This is associated with an export of net energy (internal, potential, and latent energy) away from the land. On a global scale, there is a tight relationship between the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport (AHT) on seasonal, interannual and climate time scales: a more northward cross-equatorial AHT is associated with a displacement of the ITCZ (as defined by precipitation) toward the equator. We further analyse the relationships between cross-equatorial AHT and common streamfunction-based measures of the ITCZ position and width found in the literature. However, it remains unclear whether links between energy transport and the monsoonal precipitation exist at the scale of monsoon regions.

To address this question, we combine data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5 and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP-version 2.3) rainfall data. In the annual cycle, the cross-equatorial northward AHT transport peaks in July and the annual net northward cross-equatorial AHT is -0.34 PW (negative sign denotes southward). A regression analysis confirms that the global ITCZ shifts southward when the cross-equatorial AHT is anomalously large, although we demonstrate this mainly happens over the Pacific Ocean. Outside of the Pacific sector, the relationship between cross-equatorial AHT and JJA precipitation is complex. For the West African monsoon region, greater northward cross-equatorial AHT is related to weaker rainfall along the Gulf of Guinea coast, while there is stronger rainfall in the Atlantic Ocean ITCZ. In the Indian sector, anomalous northward AHT is associated with a weak monsoon, marked by strong decreases in precipitation on the Western coast of India and the southern flank of the Himalayas.

In future work, the CMIP6 multi-model dataset will be analysed to examine future projection of AHT and its impact on monsoonal precipitation. The characteristics of the ITCZ will be explored using the same datasets.

How to cite: Awal, M. R., Turner, A., and Ferreira, D.: The relationship between atmospheric heat transport and monsoonal precipitation variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7957, 2022.

Oceanic mesoscale eddies contain most of the kinetic energy (KE) in the ocean and therefore play an important role in determining the ocean’s response to future climate scenarios. Oceanic wind-forced internal waves (IWs) are energetic fast motions that contribute substantially to the vertical mixing of water, thereby affecting biogeochemical and climate processes. We study the effects of wind-forced IWs on the KE pathways in high-resolution numerical simulations of an idealized wind-driven channel flow. Using spectral fluxes, we demonstrate that solutions with wind-forced IWs are characterized by a forward KE cascade, whereas solutions without exhibit an inverse KE cascade. We further decompose the flow field into ‘eddy’ and ‘internal wave’ motions using a Helmholtz decomposition and temporal filtering. This allows us to identify three key processes responsible for the reversal in the KE cascade: IW scattering, direct extraction, and stimulated cascade. Each process is quantified and discussed in detail.

How to cite: shaham, M. and Barkan, R.: Eddy-Internal wave decomposition and kinetic energy transfers in high-resolution turbulent channel flow with near-inertial waves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8284, 2022.

EGU22-9166 | Presentations | CL4.7

Diagnosing the effect of circulation trends on atmospheric temperature 

Rhidian Thomas, Tim Woollings, and Nick Dunstone

In studying recent climate, changes to atmospheric circulation are often understood as a response to temperature changes. This work instead quantifies the contribution to temperature trends from the atmospheric dynamics, by analysing trends in the ERA5 zonal-mean temperature budget over the satellite era. The results are consistent with several previously highlighted trends in the circulation. In the winter hemisphere, the region of subtropical descent and heating associated with the Hadley cell strengthens on its poleward side, and the deep diabatic heating in the ITCZ intensifies and shifts northward in the northern hemisphere (NH) winter. In keeping with other studies, we find a weakening of the transient eddy heating associated with the NH summer storm tracks. At high northern latitudes, the climatological eddy heating is weakened at low levels; this signal is strongest in NH winter, consistent with the reduced baroclinicity associated with arctic warming. Our work also points towards emerging trends in the transition seasons, SON and MAM, and underlines the importance of circulation changes in understanding trends in atmospheric temperature.

How to cite: Thomas, R., Woollings, T., and Dunstone, N.: Diagnosing the effect of circulation trends on atmospheric temperature, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9166, 2022.

EGU22-9501 | Presentations | CL4.7

Diagnosing differences in Bjerknes compensation in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model 

Yoania Povea Pérez, Eric Guilyardi, Brady Ferster, and Alexey Fedorov

Planetary heat transport can be separated into the oceanic and atmospheric components and plays a major role in shaping the climate. In a climate in equilibrium, the net heat flux at the top of the atmosphere is constant and the rate of change in ocean heat content is negligible. In such conditions, anomalies in the ocean heat transport are accompanied by changes in the atmosphere of the same magnitude but opposite sign [Bjerknes, 1964], known as Bjerknes compensation (BJC). BJC remains a hypothesis since it has not been found in observations due to the length of time series and large errors compared to the observed heat transports. Nevertheless, BJC has a great number of applications in climate sciences, especially in climate predictability. Here we study the BJC in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model and contrast its properties in piControl and abrupt-4xCO2 experiments. In order to address this goal, we characterize the different time scales dependence and explore BJC dynamics linked to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) changes and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ) shifts. We improve the BJC diagnostics by introducing the Turner Angle between ocean and atmospheric anomalies:  this allows both to quantify the BJC strength and to distinguish the contributions of ocean and atmosphere. In the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, we found two regions of stronger BJC corresponding to the mid-latitudes storm track region and the Marginal Ice Zone. The strong forcing in abrupt-4xCO2 leads to an AMOC reduction of 60% compared to the control experiment and dampening of the centennial signal of heat transport, however, the role of BJC in AMOC recovery in this experiment remains unclear. The ocean dominates BJC at decadal and centennial timescales both in natural and forced experiments. BJC is associated with the co-variability between AMOC strength and ITCZ location. Other forms of heat compensation are found in this model, such as a Bjerknes-like compensation between Atlantic and Indo-Pacific centennial ocean heat transport in the South Hemisphere.  

How to cite: Povea Pérez, Y., Guilyardi, E., Ferster, B., and Fedorov, A.: Diagnosing differences in Bjerknes compensation in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9501, 2022.

EGU22-10666 | Presentations | CL4.7

Monsoon Onset Response to Warming in Idealized GCM and CMIP6 Simulations 

Simona Bordoni and Katrina Hui

GCMs robustly project a delay in the timing of the global monsoon onset and tropical precipitation intensification with warming. However, a closer look at the response of different monsoon regions shows less consistency. To better understand how monsoons will respond to a warming climate, with a particular focus on the timing of monsoon onset, we use a hierarchy of climate models, starting from idealized aquaplanet simulations all the way to CMIP6 projections, to identify the robust and uncertain changes and investigate the underlying mechanisms. Our idealized work covers two sets of simulations: 1) aquaplanet runs with a uniform mixed layer depth (MLD) in a wide range of climates, from colder to warmer than the current climate, and 2) simulations with an idealized saturated zonally symmetric continent extending from 10oN to the North Pole in a similar range of colder to warmer climates. Monsoon onset is determined using a change point detection method on the cumulative moisture flux convergence (MFC) (or net precipitation), which robustly links monsoon onset to changes in the large-scale monsoonal circulation. The idealized uniform MLD aquaplanet simulations show a robust progressive delay of monsoon onset, consistent with results reported in the literature. Analyses of the atmospheric energy budget suggest this delay is due to the increased atmospheric latent heat capacity with warming. Interestingly, this delay is not evident in the simulations with the idealized saturated continent. Mechanisms are explored by analyzing changes in the energetics and dynamics of the tropical circulation and related monsoonal precipitation. CMIP6 projections in different monsoon regions are investigated to determine if mechanisms exposed in the idealized simulations can shed some light on the differing monsoon onset responses in more complex climate models.

How to cite: Bordoni, S. and Hui, K.: Monsoon Onset Response to Warming in Idealized GCM and CMIP6 Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10666, 2022.

EGU22-10915 | Presentations | CL4.7

The impact of greenhouse gas and ozone forcing on the Southern Hemisphere climate system 

Houraa Daher and Ben Kirtman

Anthropogenic climate change in the Southern Hemisphere is driven by two forces, the greenhouse gas emissions and the stratospheric ozone levels. In the past, the combination of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion over Antarctica worked together leading to an increase in sea surface temperatures and a poleward shift of the storm tracks. With the ozone expected to recover by mid-century, however, the greenhouse gas and ozone forces will oppose each other and the changes observed previously will begin to weaken or reverse. The role the greenhouse gases and the ozone recovery play in the Southern Hemisphere climate system are examined using Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) coupled ocean eddy-parameterized and eddy-resolving simulations. The greenhouse gas emissions and ozone levels are specified independently to represent the two extremes, peak greenhouse gas emissions and a recovered ozone. In the eddy-parameterized simulations, the ozone recovery signal is found to be stronger on average. In the case of the eddy-resolving simulations, however, the increase in greenhouse gases is stronger especially in eddy-rich regions like western boundary current regions and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The volume transport is also calculated for the Southern Hemisphere western boundary currents (Agulhas, Brazil, and East Australian Currents) and the two external forces are found to not play an important role in the mean transports, but the model resolution does. The eddy-parameterizing simulations yield a more accurate transport than the eddy-resolving simulations. The eddy-resolving simulations however, are able to resolve a more accurate eddy field in these highly active regions. The relationship between the sea surface temperatures in the western boundary currents and regional precipitation over nearby South Africa, South America, and Australia is then analyzed in greater detail.

How to cite: Daher, H. and Kirtman, B.: The impact of greenhouse gas and ozone forcing on the Southern Hemisphere climate system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10915, 2022.

EGU22-10935 | Presentations | CL4.7

Super recovery of the Hadley Cell edge to the CO2 removal 

Yeong-Ju Choi, Seo-Yeon Kim, Seok-Woo Son, Soon-il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jong-Seong Kug, Seung-Ki Min, and Jongsoo Shin

The poleward shift of the Hadley cell (HC) edge by global warming is widely documented. However, its reversibility to CO2 removal remains unknown. By conducting a climate model experiment where CO2 concentration is systematically increased and then decreased in time, this study shows that a poleward-shifted HC edge in warm climate returns equatorward as CO2 concentration decreases. It is also shown that the rate significantly differs between the two hemispheres. While the southern HC edge monotonically changes with CO2 concentration, the northern HC edge exhibits a super recovery, locating on the equatorward side of the present-climate HC edge when CO2 concentration returns to the present level. Such a super recovery is associated with the hysteresis of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Our findings suggest that the HC edge change may result in the super recovery of subtropical dryness in the northern hemisphere except California.

How to cite: Choi, Y.-J., Kim, S.-Y., Son, S.-W., An, S., Yeh, S.-W., Kug, J.-S., Min, S.-K., and Shin, J.: Super recovery of the Hadley Cell edge to the CO2 removal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10935, 2022.

EGU22-11288 | Presentations | CL4.7

Spectral analysis of the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric variability to assess the role of baroclinic instability in seasonal forecasts 

Laura Trentini, Sara Dal Gesso, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, and Marcello Petitta

Baroclinic instability in the mid-latitudes is a significant component of the climate system, as it is associated with the meridional transport of a large amount of energy and momentum. Hence, the ability of climate models to correctly predict the properties of atmospheric circulation in that latitudinal band is a very important requirement. This study aims to estimate the power content of the atmospheric phenomena typical of mid-latitudes, such as baroclinic perturbations, and to understand how seasonal forecasts can be practically used to assess energy transfer in the atmosphere. We compare the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude winter variability of the long-range forecasting system SEAS5 with the ERA5 reanalysis. Both datasets are produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The analysis is carried out by computing the Hayashi spectra of the 500-hPa geopotential height field. Both the reanalysis and the seasonal forecast show a series of peaks in the spectral region of eastward-traveling waves, which corresponds to the high frequency-high wavenumber domain. We quantify the amount of energy released from the atmosphere by calculating the Baroclinic Amplitude Index. Results suggest that the seasonal forecasts correctly reflect the variability of the geopotential height power spectra in the Southern Hemisphere, with some minor discrepancies related to the sub-daily variability, which is not correctly discriminated. However, the energy associated with the baroclinic activity is well represented by the seasonal forecast in the Southern Hemisphere, where the orographic effect is negligible compared to the Northern Hemisphere. This work is carried out as part of the European FOCUS-Africa project, which develops innovative and sustainable climate services in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.

How to cite: Trentini, L., Dal Gesso, S., Dell'Aquila, A., and Petitta, M.: Spectral analysis of the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric variability to assess the role of baroclinic instability in seasonal forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11288, 2022.

EGU22-13178 | Presentations | CL4.7

Seasonality of the Mesoscale Inverse Cascade as Inferred from Global Scale-Dependent Eddy Energy Observations 

Jacob Steinberg, Sylvia Cole, Kyla Drushka, and Ryan Abernathey

Oceanic mesoscale motions including eddies, meanders, fronts, and filaments comprise a dominant fraction of oceanic kinetic energy and contribute to the redistribution of tracers in the ocean such as heat, salt, and nutrients. This reservoir of mesoscale energy is regulated by the conversion of potential energy and transfers of kinetic energy across spatial scales. Whether and under what circumstances mesoscale turbulence precipitates forward or inverse cascades, and the rates of these cascades, remain difficult to directly observe and quantify despite their impacts on physical and biological processes. Here we use global observations to investigate the seasonality of surface kinetic energy and upper ocean potential energy. We apply spatial filters to along-track satellite measurements of sea surface height to diagnose surface eddy kinetic energy across 60-300 km scales. A geographic and scale dependent seasonal cycle appears throughout much of the mid-latitudes, with eddy kinetic energy at scales less than 60 km peaking 1-4 months before that at 60-300 km scales. Spatial patterns in this lag align with geographic regions where the conversion of potential to kinetic energy are seasonally varying. In mid-latitudes, the conversion rate peaks 0-2 months prior to kinetic energy at scales less than 60 km. The consistent geographic patterns between the seasonality of potential energy conversion and kinetic energy across spatial scale provide observational evidence for the inverse cascade, and demonstrate that some component of it is seasonally modulated. Implications for mesoscale parameterizations and numerical modeling are discussed.

How to cite: Steinberg, J., Cole, S., Drushka, K., and Abernathey, R.: Seasonality of the Mesoscale Inverse Cascade as Inferred from Global Scale-Dependent Eddy Energy Observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13178, 2022.

EGU22-13547 | Presentations | CL4.7 | Highlight

Towards attributing change in tropical and subtropical precipitation 

Gabriele Hegerl, Andrew Ballinger, and Andrew Schurer

Precipitation changes are notoriously highly variable, and climate models misplace circulation features, making it difficult to evaluate if mechanisms of precipitation change are well reproduced in climate models. Several methods have been developed to detect externally forced precipitation change tracking circulation features rather than specific locations. For example, analysis of monthly ascending and descending regions in reanalysis show the increase of rainfall in ascending regions. Analysis of wet and dry regions in GPCP blended data shows that if the locations of wet and dry regions are tracked from month to month then trends over the past 3-4 decades can be attributed to a combination of human influences and the recovery from drying associated with the Mount Pinatubo eruption in wet regions. In response to volcanic eruptions, wet regions tend to dry and dry regions may get wetter, indicating a reduced moisture transport to the wettest regions of the tropics under strong volcanic forcing. However, this is also impacted by the hemispheric characteristics of the eruptions. 

How to cite: Hegerl, G., Ballinger, A., and Schurer, A.: Towards attributing change in tropical and subtropical precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13547, 2022.

EGU22-870 | Presentations | CL4.8

Causal evaluation of Arctic-midlatitude processes in CMIP6 model simulations 

Evgenia Galytska, Katja Weigel, Jakob Runge, Dörthe Handorf, Ralf Jaiser, Raphael Köhler, and Veronika Eyring

The impact of various mechanisms that link Arctic and midlatitude processes occurring in conditions of amplified Arctic warming is still under debate. Observational and model studies lead to divergent conclusions. This has spurred a number of research activities aiming to apply innovative approaches to improve process understanding. Therefore, to identify robust relationships in the complex Arctic-midlatitude linkages, we apply a novel method that goes beyond simple correlation analysis, known as Causal Networks or Causal Discovery. This allows us to analyze, characterize, and quantify key processes that contribute to the linkage between the Arctic and midlatitudes on a monthly timescale. In particular, we focus on the causal connections among key actors, such as Arctic near-surface temperature and sea ice, near-surface pressure over central Asia, vertical wave propagation, and its further link to the stratospheric polar vortex. Additionally, we analyze the contribution of remote large-scale processes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Quasi Biennial Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this study, we summarize the comparisons between historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model runs and observational data. On the one hand, our analysis shows that the majority of historical CMIP6 models agree with observations on the significant causal connection between near-surface air temperature and sea ice extent in the Arctic region. These model results also capture the tropospheric-stratospheric coupling and downward impact from the stratosphere to the troposphere shown by observations. On the other hand, we also focus on discrepancies between model simulations and observations and provide possible explanations of investigated differences. These outcomes provide the basis to investigate changes in the links between Arctic and midlatitudes for simulations with various forcings and future scenarios.

How to cite: Galytska, E., Weigel, K., Runge, J., Handorf, D., Jaiser, R., Köhler, R., and Eyring, V.: Causal evaluation of Arctic-midlatitude processes in CMIP6 model simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-870, 2022.

EGU22-2613 | Presentations | CL4.8

Weakening of Western Disturbances in Response to Polar Sea Ice Melt 

Varunesh Chandra, Sandeep Sukumaran, and Kieran Hunt

Arctic sea ice has been declining in recent decades. Further, future projections under strong warming scenarios suggest that sea ice will substantially decline in both poles by the second half of 21st century. The effect of polar sea ice melt on low latitude weather systems is relatively less understood. The changes in equator-to-pole temperature gradient can affect the strength of subtropical jet stream which in turn can modulate transient weather systems such as western disturbances (WDs). WDs play a crucial role in the hydrological cycle of northwestern India and adjoining Himalayan region, so it is essential to know the response of WDs to polar sea ice melt.

     To understand the effects of polar sea ice melt on WD activity, we have run a suite of coupled and uncoupled simulations using NCAR community earth system model (CESM1.2.2). Initially, a control (CTRL) run is performed with the model in a fully coupled configuration for 350 years, with a coarse horizontal resolution (2°x2°). By branching off the CTRL simulation at 300th year, another experiment is carried out in which the albedo of the sea ice is reduced so that the increased absorption of the solar radiation would melt the sea ice. We designate this experiment as sea ice melt experiment (SIME). Transient weather systems may not be adequately resolved in the coarse resolution simulations, so we ran an ensemble of high-resolution Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5) simulations using the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) annual cycles from the coupled model simulations.

     WDs in the high-resolution CAM5 simulations are tracked using a Lagrangian tracking algorithm. Our analyses reveal that the WD activity weakens in the CAM5 simulations forced with the SST and SIC from SIME experiment. A decrease in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and a subsequent weakening of the subtropical jetstream were also seen in those simulations.

How to cite: Chandra, V., Sukumaran, S., and Hunt, K.: Weakening of Western Disturbances in Response to Polar Sea Ice Melt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2613, 2022.

EGU22-4854 | Presentations | CL4.8

Thin and thick ice in the Beaufort Sea: A new regime with enhanced mobility 

Kent Moore, Mike Steele, Axel Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang, and Kristin Laidre

The Arctic Ocean has seen a remarkable reduction in sea ice coverage, thickness and age since the 1980s. These changes are most pronounced in the Beaufort Sea, with a transition around 2007 from a regime dominated by multi-year sea ice to one with large expanses of open water during the summer. Here we show that during the summers of 2020 and 2021, the Beaufort Sea hosted anomalously large concentrations of thick and old ice. We show that ice advection contributed to these anomalies, with 2020 dominated by eastward transport from the Chukchi Sea, and 2021 dominated by transport from the Last Ice Area to the north of Canada and Greenland. Since 2007, cool season (fall, winter, and spring) ice volume transport into the Beaufort Sea accounts for ~45 % of the variability in early summer ice volume - a threefold increase from that associated with conditions prior to 2007.   Impacts of these changes are likely to occur on stressed regional ice-dependent ecosystems.

How to cite: Moore, K., Steele, M., Schweiger, A., Zhang, J., and Laidre, K.: Thin and thick ice in the Beaufort Sea: A new regime with enhanced mobility, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4854, 2022.

EGU22-5436 | Presentations | CL4.8

Future changes in poleward moisture transport variability associated with atmospheric rivers 

Richard Bintanja, Jeroen Sonnemans, Karin van der Wiel, Marlen Kolbe, Kirien Whan, and Imme Benedict

The hydrological cycle in the Arctic is intensifying due to climate change, which could modify the climate locally, but also worldwide. For example poleward moisture transport (PMT) is projected to increase in a future climate as well as its interannual variability, mainly in summer. While the first can be attributed to increased atmospheric moisture content, the cause of the latter is still uncertain. We used the global climate model EC-Earth to examine to what extent PMT variability can be linked to atmospheric rivers (ARs) in present and future climates (2C and 3C warmer than the pre-industrial climate). It is found that most PMT variability is driven by Arctic ARs, especially over the Atlantic Ocean and to a lesser extent over the Bering Strait. In years with high PMT, a relatively large share is transported by ARs, up to 50% in the present-day climate. Moreover, our findings suggest that interannual AR-related PMT variability is more sensitive to variations in AR-intensity compared to AR-frequency in the present as well as in warmer climates. This implies that increasing interannual PMT variability is dominantly driven by the increase in PMT per AR rather than the increase in AR-occurrence. Finally, our results point at a strong contribution of ARs to interannual variability of Arctic precipitation and temperature patterns.

How to cite: Bintanja, R., Sonnemans, J., van der Wiel, K., Kolbe, M., Whan, K., and Benedict, I.: Future changes in poleward moisture transport variability associated with atmospheric rivers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5436, 2022.

EGU22-5836 | Presentations | CL4.8

Impact of the atmospheric circulation on the Arctic snow cover and ice thickness variability 

Marylou Athanase, Merle Schwager, Jan Streffing, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Svetlana Loza, and Helge Goessling

The Arctic sea ice cover and thickness have significantly declined since the 1970s, while exhibiting large interannual variability. Snow cover on sea ice, acting as an insulating barrier, was shown to be instrumental in driving the variability and trends in sea-ice thickness. Yet, the Arctic snow depth remains scarcely measured and overlooked in climate models, which translates to “very limited predictive skill” according to the IPCC (Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate). Moreover, sea-ice thickness initialization has been shown to be an important element for skilful sea-ice forecasts, and it appears plausible that the same holds for the snow layer on top.

Here, we investigate the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies in shaping the Arctic snow-cover and sea-ice thickness anomalies. In this preparatory work, spectral nudging of the large-scale atmospheric circulation towards ERA5 reanalysis data is applied to the fully coupled AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM-3). We examine the variability and trends of Arctic snowfall, snow depth, sea ice cover and thickness over a 42-year period (1979-2021), and in particular the reproduction of observed anomalies. Two nudging configurations are used, differing in strength by their relaxation timescale τ and spectral truncation wavenumber T (namely τ=24 h, T20 and τ=1 h, T159). We demonstrate the importance of atmospheric circulation anomalies in shaping variations of snow and ice thickness at sub-seasonal to interannual scales, and discuss the potential of spectral nudging as a tool to improve the initialization of sea ice forecasts.



How to cite: Athanase, M., Schwager, M., Streffing, J., Andrés-Martínez, M., Loza, S., and Goessling, H.: Impact of the atmospheric circulation on the Arctic snow cover and ice thickness variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5836, 2022.

EGU22-5858 | Presentations | CL4.8

Skillful Prediction of Decadal Sea Ice Variability in the Antarctic Seas 

Yushi Morioka, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrea Cipollone, Simona Masina, and Swadhin Behera

This study examines the prediction skill of decadal sea ice variability in the Antarctic Seas using a coupled general circulation model (SINTEX-F2) developed under the EU-Japan collaboration. A decadal reforecast experiment with both sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) initializations shows higher prediction skills of the SIC in the Weddell Sea during austral autumn compared to an experiment with SST initialization only. The former experiment reproduces decadal SIC increase after the late 2000s, which is associated with anomalous sea ice advection by the strengthened Weddell Gyre. A third experiment with the SST, SIC, and subsurface ocean temperature/salinity initializations shows the highest prediction skills of the SIC in the Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen (RAB) Seas during austral winter and spring. The model captures decadal SIC increase after the late 2000s when a larger number of subsurface ocean observations by Argo floats become available. The decadal SIC increase is found to be linked with anomalous cooling of subsurface ocean by the strengthened Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the associated downwelling anomalies in the RAB Seas. These results indicate that both ocean and sea ice initializations benefit skillful prediction of decadal variability in the Antarctic sea ice.

How to cite: Morioka, Y., Iovino, D., Cipollone, A., Masina, S., and Behera, S.: Skillful Prediction of Decadal Sea Ice Variability in the Antarctic Seas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5858, 2022.

EGU22-6020 | Presentations | CL4.8

Modified soil hydro-thermodynamics cause large spread in projections of Arctic and subarctic climate 

Norman Julius Steinert, Jésus Fidel González-Rouco, Philipp de Vrese, Elena García-Bustamante, Stefan Hagemann, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Victor Brovkin, Camilo Andres Melo-Aguilar, Félix García-Pereira, and Jorge Navarro

The representation of the terrestrial thermal and hydrological states in current-generation climate models is crucial to have a realistic simulation of the subsurface physical processes and land-atmosphere coupling. This is particularly important for high-latitude permafrost regions since these areas are prone to the release of substantial amounts of carbon from degrading permafrost under climate-change conditions. Many current-generation climate models still have deficiencies in the representation of terrestrial structure and physical mechanisms, such as too shallow land depth or insufficient hydro-thermodynamic coupling. We therefore introduce a deeper bottom boundary into the JSBACH land surface model. The associated changes in the simulated terrestrial thermal state influence the near-surface hydroclimate when sufficient coupling between the thermodynamic and hydrological regimes is present. Hence, we also assess the influence of introducing various physical modifications for the representation of soil hydro-thermodynamic processes in climate projections of the 21st century. The results show significant impacts on terrestrial energy uptake, as well as changes in global near-surface ground temperatures when introducing the physical modifications. The resulting simulation of high-latitude permafrost extent is subject to large variations depending on the model configuration, reflecting the uncertainty of carbon release from permafrost degradation. We further use the modified model to assess the sensitivity of simulated high-latitude climate dynamics to different hydrological configurations in the coupled MPI-ESM. The differences in soil hydrological representation in permafrost regions could explain a large part of CMIP6 inter-model spread in simulated Arctic climate, with remote effects on subarctic dynamical systems.

How to cite: Steinert, N. J., González-Rouco, J. F., de Vrese, P., García-Bustamante, E., Hagemann, S., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Brovkin, V., Melo-Aguilar, C. A., García-Pereira, F., and Navarro, J.: Modified soil hydro-thermodynamics cause large spread in projections of Arctic and subarctic climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6020, 2022.

EGU22-7134 | Presentations | CL4.8

Frequency Change in Blocking-related Winter Cold Days in Europe between Periods of Low and High Arctic Sea Ice 

Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Johannes Riebold, and Dörthe Handorf

Over the last decades the change in the Arctic climate resulted in related sea-ice retreat and a much faster warming of the Arctic compared to the global average (Arctic amplification). These changes in sea ice can affect the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the mid-latitudes, in particular atmospheric blocking, and – mediated by the changes in blocking – the frequency and severity of related extreme events. As a step towards a better understanding of changes in weather and climate extremes over Central Europe (C-EU) associated with Arctic climate change, we study the linkage between periods of low and high Arctic sea ice area and the frequency of winter cold days in C-EU. Since frequency of winter cold days in C-EU is associated with atmospheric blocking, especially over the Ural and Scandinavian region, we investigate frequency changes of cold days with respect to the occurrence of blocking in different Euro-Atlantic regions by composite analysis based on ERA5 reanalysis data. 

To separate the resulting changes from the global warming trend and associated Arctic sea ice loss, monthly sea ice area data is first detrended and then divided by the median into two parts representing either low or high sea ice periods. The frequency of occurrence of cold days with respect to both sea ice periods is then calculated and compared. The same procedure is applied to cold days occurring during a blocked day in certain regions to analyze the change of linkage between atmospheric blocking and cold days induced by different sea ice area periods. Preliminary results indicate an increased occurrence of cold days in Central Europe during low sea ice periods, which is enhanced during the occurrence of Ural Blocking.

How to cite: Richling, A., Ulbrich, U., Rust, H., Riebold, J., and Handorf, D.: Frequency Change in Blocking-related Winter Cold Days in Europe between Periods of Low and High Arctic Sea Ice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7134, 2022.

EGU22-7219 | Presentations | CL4.8 | Highlight

Evaluating the skill of seasonal forecasts of sea ice in the Southern Ocean: insights from the SIPN South project 2017-2022 

François Massonnet, Phil Reid, Jan Lieser, Cecilia Bitz, John Fyfe, and Will Hobbs

The SIPN South project is an international, coordinated initiative endorsed by the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP), that aims at identifying the skill of current seasonal predictions of sea ice around Antarctica. Here, we review and analyze the results of five years of predictions of summer sea ice conducted by 20 groups since 2017, having contributed together more than 1000 forecasts. A wide range of approaches is considered, ranging from statistical data-driven to dynamical process-based models. We evaluate the ability of the forecasts to reproduce observed sea ice area at the circumpolar and regional levels and their skill relative to trivial forecasts (climatology, persistence). We find that a substantial spread exists already at day one in the dynamical forecasts, pointing at problems with the initialization. We also find that the forecasts based on statistical modeling perform generally better than forecasts based on dynamical modeling.

How to cite: Massonnet, F., Reid, P., Lieser, J., Bitz, C., Fyfe, J., and Hobbs, W.: Evaluating the skill of seasonal forecasts of sea ice in the Southern Ocean: insights from the SIPN South project 2017-2022, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7219, 2022.

EGU22-7468 | Presentations | CL4.8

Characterising reanalysis representation of winds at the interface between Antarctica and the Southern Ocean 

Thomas Caton Harrison, Tom Bracegirdle, John King, and Stavroula Biri

Low-level easterly winds encircle Antarctica, helping drive coastal currents which modify transport of circumpolar deep water to ice shelves as well as the formation and distribution of sea ice. Semi-permanent katabatic winds interact with a highly variable maritime component associated with synoptic forcing, both of which are influenced by the steep orography of the Antarctic margins. In this research, representation of the terrestrial and maritime components of the easterlies in three state-of-the-art reanalyses (ERA5, MERRA2 and JRA55) is evaluated. Variability on daily timescales is analysed using self-organising maps which objectively cluster coastal flow regimes into states with different synoptic and mesoscale influences. Correlation coefficients with station and sonde observations are highest in ERA5 overall but stronger terrestrial winds in MERRA2 and JRA55 reduce biases relative to ERA5 for many states. ERA5 is the least prone to overestimating low wind speeds. Performance is reduced for all reanalyses during states dominated by terrestrial katabatics and at stations near sloping terrain. Wind speeds are consistently underestimated when cyclone activity near the steep coastal orography drives a super-geostrophic low-level jet. These results demonstrate how a characterisation of coastal wind variability on short timescales could help diagnose errors in coarser models used for future projections.

How to cite: Caton Harrison, T., Bracegirdle, T., King, J., and Biri, S.: Characterising reanalysis representation of winds at the interface between Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7468, 2022.

EGU22-7636 | Presentations | CL4.8

Vegetation Type is an Important Predictor of the Arctic Terrestrial Summer Surface Energy Budget 

Jacqueline Oehri, Gabriela Schaepman-Strub, Jin-Soo Kim, Raleigh Grysko, Heather Kropp, Inge Grünberg, Vitalii Zemlianskii, Oliver Sonnentag, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, and Merin Reji Chacko and the ArcticSEB - Synthesis Team

The terrestrial Arctic is subject to extreme climatic changes including increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. At the heart of these developments lie changes in the land surface energy budget (SEB), which couples important earth system processes including the carbon and water cycles. However, despite the importance of the SEB, uncertainties in predictions of high-latitude SEBs persist, specifically for the SEB-components sensible and latent heat fluxes.

These uncertainties have in part been attributed to insufficient representation of Arctic vegetation in land surface components of Earth system models. However, to date, a quantitative understanding of the relative importance of Arctic vegetation for the SEB compared to other important SEB-drivers is missing.

Here we harmonize in situ observations from regional and global monitoring networks and provide a quantitative, circumpolar assessment of the magnitude and seasonality of observed SEB-components over treeless land >60°N in the time period 1994-2021. Using a variance partitioning analysis, we identify vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer, in comparison with other SEB-drivers including meteorological conditions, snow cover duration, topography, and permafrost extent. Differences among vegetation types are especially high for mean summer magnitudes of sensible and latent heat fluxes, where they reach up to 8% and 9% of the potential incoming shortwave radiation, respectively. Our comparison with SEB-observations across glacier sites show that importantly, these differences among vegetation types are of similar magnitude as differences between vegetation and glacier surfaces. In our seasonality synthesis we find that net radiation (Rnet), sensible (H) and ground (G) heat fluxes have an unexpected early start of summer-regime (when daily mean values > 0 Wm-2), preceding the end of snowmelt by 56, 33, and 39 days, respectively. An elevated variability among vegetation types in the estimated onset (and end) dates of net positive Rnet and H (and G) relative to snowmelt (and onset) date, suggests that vegetation types differentially affect the distribution, trapping and density of snow cover, with important consequences for the cumulative energy fluxes from and to the atmosphere. Finally, we find that long-term, year-round SEB data series of Arctic tundra are still very scarce, especially in the Arctic regions of Eastern Canada and Western Russia.

In conclusion, we provide quantitative evidence of the importance of vegetation types for predicting Arctic surface energy budgets at circumpolar scale. We highlight that substantial differences among vegetation types are not only found for mean magnitudes but also the seasonality of surface energy fluxes. We contend that the land surface components of Earth system models should account for Arctic vegetation types to improve climate projections in the rapidly changing terrestrial Arctic.

How to cite: Oehri, J., Schaepman-Strub, G., Kim, J.-S., Grysko, R., Kropp, H., Grünberg, I., Zemlianskii, V., Sonnentag, O., Euskirchen, E. S., and Reji Chacko, M. and the ArcticSEB - Synthesis Team: Vegetation Type is an Important Predictor of the Arctic Terrestrial Summer Surface Energy Budget, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7636, 2022.

EGU22-7730 | Presentations | CL4.8

Extreme wintertime surface energy budget anomalies in the high Arctic 

Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, Lukas Papritz, Gabriele Messori, and Heini Wernli

In recent decades the Arctic has warmed faster than the global mean, especially during winter. Wintertime Arctic warming has been attributed to various mechanisms, with recent studies highlighting the important role of enhanced downward infrared radiation associated with anomalous influx of warm, moist air from lower latitudes. Here we study wintertime surface energy budget (SEB) anomalies over Arctic sea ice on synoptic time scales, using ERA5 reanalysis data (1979-2020). With a new algorithm introduced here, we identify regions exhibiting large positive daily-mean SEB anomalies, and temporally connect them to form life-cycle events. Using Lagrangian tracers, we show that the majority of these winter events are associated with inflow from the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans, driven by the large-scale circulation. They show similar temporal evolution. The onset stage, located around the marginal ice zone, is characterized by roughly equal contributions of net longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes to the positive SEB anomaly. As the events evolve and move further into the Arctic, SEB anomalies decrease due to weakening sensible heat fluxes as the surface adapts. The magnitude of the surface temperature anomaly is determined by the downward longwave radiative flux and changes little over the life-cycle. As this study highlights the importance of turbulent fluxes in driving SEB anomalies and downward longwave radiation in determining local surface warming, both components need to be properly represented by climate models in order to properly model the Arctic climate.

How to cite: Murto, S., Caballero, R., Svensson, G., Papritz, L., Messori, G., and Wernli, H.: Extreme wintertime surface energy budget anomalies in the high Arctic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7730, 2022.

EGU22-8442 | Presentations | CL4.8

Internal variability of Arctic surface air temperatures at different levels of global warming 

Céline Gieße, Dirk Notz, and Johanna Baehr

Surface temperatures in the Arctic are increasing more than twice as fast as the global average due to Arctic amplification. This warming gives rise to new types of extreme events that can have particularly large impacts. Here, we study the interplay of mean warming and changes in internal variability to better understand and constrain the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes in the Arctic, both regionally and seasonally.
For this study, we analyze projected mean and extreme surface air temperatures in the Arctic for different levels of global warming based on output data from multiple single-model initial-condition large ensembles, with the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) at the core of the analysis. We use a time-slice approach to construct representative samples of the pre-industrial climate and the climate at different levels of global warming, including the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C.
Considering pan-Arctic temperatures, we find that the mean warming is strongest in winter (~3.5 times annual mean global warming) and lowest in summer (~1.05 times annual mean global warming), which leads to a weakening of the Arctic seasonal cycle with global warming. Moreover, the change in the return levels of extreme temperatures is particularly strong for cold extremes, rendering extremely cold temperatures seldom in a warming Arctic. The level of global warming is strongly impacting the frequency of extreme events. For example, warm extremes that occur every 100 years at 1.5 °C of global warming, occur more than once in 10 years at 2 °C of global warming, and cold extremes that occur every 10 years at 1.5 °C global warming, occur only about every 200 years at 2 °C of global warming (based on MPI-GE data). The response of Arctic mean temperatures to global warming results from a local temperature response that varies substantially for different regions and types of surfaces (land, ice sheet, open ocean, sea ice). We find the most drastic warming, accompanied by a strong reduction of variability, in winter temperatures over the northern Barents Sea linked to its ‘Atlantification’. Lastly, we also note a considerable difference in the Arctic temperature response for the same level of global warming in a transient versus a quasi-equilibrium climate state.
The results of our study allow us to quantify expected changes in the Arctic temperature range with global warming and also to determine when and where, for example, climate mitigation measures are most likely to be visible.

How to cite: Gieße, C., Notz, D., and Baehr, J.: Internal variability of Arctic surface air temperatures at different levels of global warming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8442, 2022.

EGU22-8755 | Presentations | CL4.8

Robust trends in the number of winter days with heavy precipitation over Europe are modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of 21st century 

Ramon Fuentes-Franco, David Docquier, Torben Koenigk, Filippo Giorgi, and Klaus Zimmermann

We use 14 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyse the number of days with extreme winter precipitation over Europe and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the observed period 1950-2014 and 21st-century that for northern Europe, models project two times more extreme precipitation days by the end of the 21st century compared to the historical period (1950-2014). In contrast, no significant change in the number of extreme precipitation days is detected over the whole period for southern Europe. We find a weakening of the NAO variability in the second half of the 21st century compared to the historical period.  For the second half of the 21st century, models show an intensified correlation between the extreme precipitation and the NAO index in both southern and northern Europe. Models with a reduced variability of the NAO show an increased positive trend of days with extreme precipitation in northern Europe.

How to cite: Fuentes-Franco, R., Docquier, D., Koenigk, T., Giorgi, F., and Zimmermann, K.: Robust trends in the number of winter days with heavy precipitation over Europe are modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of 21st century, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8755, 2022.

EGU22-9717 | Presentations | CL4.8

Interannual Variability of Arctic Climate: Seasonal and Regional Disparities 

Marlen Kolbe, Richard Bintanja, and Eveline van der Linden

The future of year-to-year variability of Arctic climate change indicators such as sea ice and precipitation is still fairly uncertain. Alongside climatic changes in means, a thorough understanding of interannual variability (IAV) is needed to accurately distinguish between signal and underlying noise, as well as to describe the likelihood of extreme events. 

In this study we quantify the IAV of Arctic surface air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and sea ice area from 1851-2100 as a function of time in order to assess the effect of climate change on future variability. By influencing the likelihood of extreme events, changes in the magnitude of IAV can not only influence the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet, but also affect regions in lower latitudes. Investigations of global climate model output strongly suggest that intermodel differences in CMIP6 projections of IAV are largely explained by natural variability versus model physics. Our results further highlight the need to distinguish between seasons as well as regions when investigating past, present and future states of IAV of Arctic climate. For example, increases in precipitation variability will become much more significant and intense in winter (after 2040) and most pronounced in coastal regions near the Bering Strait, the GrIS and the Norwegian Sea. Depending on the season, the retreat of sea ice can alter precipitation patterns through the process of enhanced evaporation over open ocean areas. Sea ice variability can therefore explain regional and seasonal changes of the Arctic water cycle, as it shifts from being snow- to rain-dominated.

How to cite: Kolbe, M., Bintanja, R., and van der Linden, E.: Interannual Variability of Arctic Climate: Seasonal and Regional Disparities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9717, 2022.

In the Arctic, observed decadal mean surface air temperatures (SATs) were 0.70°C–0.95°C lower around 1970 than around 1940. Many of the state-of-the-art climate model in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibited Arctic surface cooling trend during 1940–1970, which could be attributed to external forcings. Multimodel means of CMIP6 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) historical simulations exhibited Arctic surface cooling of –0.22°C (±0.24°C) in 1970 versus 1940 and showed that anthropogenic aerosol forcing contributed to a cooling of −0.65°C (±0.37°C), which was partially offset by a warming of 0.44°C (±0.22°C) due to well-mixed greenhouse gases. In addition to the anthropogenic aerosol forcings, multidecadal internal variability with a magnitude of 0.47°C was the components primarily contributing to the observed Arctic cooling. The SAT spatial pattern of pan-Arctic multidecadal cooling due to the internal variability was identified by the composite analysis and resembles the obseved Arctic surface cooling pattern during 1940–1970.

How to cite: Aizawa, T., Oshima, N., and Yukimoto, S.: Evaluation of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and multidecadal internal variability contributing to mid-20th century Arctic cooling — CMIP6/DAMIP multimodel analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9781, 2022.

EGU22-10357 | Presentations | CL4.8 | Highlight

Snowmelt timing influences the start of the Arctic-boreal fire season across North America 

Thomas D. Hessilt, Brendan M. Rogers, Stefano Potter, Rebecca C. Scholten, and Sander Veraverbeke

Snowmelt timing influences arctic-boreal ecosystem functioning through influences on surface hydrology and energy balance. Spring snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has declined since the mid-20th century by up to 46 % in June, including a strong decrease after the mid-1980s. Regions of arctic-boreal North America have simultaneously experienced increases in the number and size of fires. With early snowmelt timing, the likelihood of early fire ignitions also increases as fuel is exposed and organic soil can begin to dry. Early fire ignitions can potentially develop into larger fires as a prolonged fire season may extend the period of favourable weather conditions for fire spread. Despite the importance of snowmelt timing, ignition timing, and fire size for predicting future boreal fire regimes across North America, these relationships are not well understood. Here we analysed snowmelt and ignition timing across ecoregions for boreal North America from 2001 to 2019. Using newly developed satellite-based fire products, we retrieved and matched ignitions with snowmelt timing in a spatially explicit manner.

            Results indicate that snowmelt timing has occurred 0.2 ± 0.17 days year-1 earlier in western arctic-boreal North America and 0.27 ± 0.33 days year-1 later in eastern arctic-boreal North America between 2001 and 2019. Similarly, we found that ignitions have occurred 0.61 ± 1.12 days year-1 earlier and 0.3 ± 0.58 days year-1 later for the western and eastern ecoregions. In 13 out of 16 ecoregions, there was a significant positive relationship (p < 0.01) between the timing of snowmelt and ignition. This suggests that snowmelt timing helps controlling the fire season start. The mechanisms behind the spatial gradient in the snowmelt timing over the last two decades are less understood and may result from differences in larger climatic oscillations influencing the polar front jet stream and Arctic sea ice extent. Decades of colder air temperature and higher amounts of winter precipitation may explain the later snowmelt and fire season start in the eastern ecoregions. Our results show that a shift in the snowmelt timing has resulted in earlier fire season starts in western boreal North America and in later fire season starts in eastern boreal North America.

How to cite: Hessilt, T. D., Rogers, B. M., Potter, S., Scholten, R. C., and Veraverbeke, S.: Snowmelt timing influences the start of the Arctic-boreal fire season across North America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10357, 2022.

EGU22-11018 | Presentations | CL4.8 | Highlight

An  Assessment of Arctic Sea Ice Intra-Annual Probabilistic Prediction Skill Using the Regional Arctic System Model 

Wieslaw Maslowski, Younjoo Lee, Anthony Craig, Robert Osinski, and Jaclyn Clement Kinney

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) has been developed and used for modeling of past to present and predicting future Arctic climate change at time scales from weeks to decades. RASM is a fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land hydrology model. Its domain covers the pan-Arctic region, with the default atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km horizontal grid. The ocean and sea ice components are configured on a rotated sphere mesh with the default configuration of 1/12o (~9.3km) in the horizontal space and with 45 ocean vertical layers. As a regional climate model, RASM requires boundary conditions along its lateral boundaries and in the upper atmosphere, which are derived either from global atmospheric reanalyses for simulations of the past to present or from global forecasts or from Earth System models (ESMs) for climate projections. The former simulations allow comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time, and their tuning, which is a unique capability not available in global ESMs.

Within this framework, RASM has been used every month for the past 3+ years (from January 2019 to present) to dynamically downscale the global intra-annual (i.e., 7-month) operational forecasts from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Here we present summary results from analysis of  RASM predictive skill from these forecasts using the common metrics to quantify model skill in predicting sea ice conditions at time scales from weeks up to 6 months. Examples of possible improvements of RASM predictive skill are discussed, related to optimized parameter space, improved initial conditions and higher spatial resolution. An outlook for up to decadal probabilistic predictions using dynamical downscaling is also discussed.

How to cite: Maslowski, W., Lee, Y., Craig, A., Osinski, R., and Clement Kinney, J.: An  Assessment of Arctic Sea Ice Intra-Annual Probabilistic Prediction Skill Using the Regional Arctic System Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11018, 2022.

EGU22-219 | Presentations | CL4.9

Coupled impacts of sea ice variability and North Pacific atmospheric circulation on Holocene hydroclimate in Arctic Alaska 

Ellie Broadman, Darrell Kaufman, Andrew Henderson, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Melanie Leng, and Jack Lacey

Arctic Alaska lies at a climatological crossroads between the Arctic and North Pacific Oceans. The modern hydroclimate of the region is responding to rapidly diminishing sea ice driven in part by changes in heat flux from the North Pacific. Paleoclimate reconstructions have improved our knowledge of Alaska’s hydroclimate, but no studies have examined Holocene sea ice, moisture, and ocean-atmosphere circulation in Arctic Alaska, limiting our understanding of the relationship between these phenomena in the past. We present a sedimentary diatom assemblage and diatom isotope dataset from Schrader Pond, located ~80 km from the Arctic Ocean. We interpret these new datasets alongside synthesized regional records of Holocene hydroclimate, and sea ice reduction scenarios modeled by HadCM3. The paleo data synthesis and model simulations suggest the early and middle Holocene in Arctic Alaska were characterized by less sea ice, a greater contribution of isotopically-heavy Arctic-derived moisture, and wetter climate. In the late Holocene, sea ice expanded and regional climate became drier. This climatic transition is coincident with a documented shift in North Pacific circulation involving the Aleutian Low (AL) at ~4 ka, suggesting a Holocene teleconnection between the North Pacific and Arctic. The HadCM3 simulations reveal that reduced sea ice leads to a strengthened AL shifted west, potentially increasing transport of warm North Pacific water to the Arctic through the Bering Strait. Our findings demonstrate the interconnectedness of the Arctic and North Pacific on multi-millennial timescales and are consistent with future projections of less sea ice and more precipitation in Arctic Alaska.

How to cite: Broadman, E., Kaufman, D., Henderson, A., Malmierca-Vallet, I., Leng, M., and Lacey, J.: Coupled impacts of sea ice variability and North Pacific atmospheric circulation on Holocene hydroclimate in Arctic Alaska, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-219, 2022.

EGU22-300 | Presentations | CL4.9

Temporal dynamics of the giant Anmangynda aufeis characteristics in changing climate, 1962-2021 (North-Eastern Eurasia) 

Anastasiia Zemlianskova, Vladimir Alexeev, Olga Makarieva, Nataliia Nesterova, Andrey Shikhov, and Andrey Ostashov

Significant changes are observed in the water exchange system of the North-Eastern Eurasia which still is the remote and poorly studied region of the cryosphere. Aufeis which are well recognized from the space may serve as the indicators of such changes. Aufeis are the ice sheets formed in permafrost environment due to the layer-by-layer freezing of discharged underground or surface water, their size may reach tenths of square kilometers. The primary goal of this study is to assess the changes in the dynamics of the characteristics (area and volume) of the giant Anmangynda aufeis based on historical and modern observational data. It is located in the zone of mountainous continuous permafrost of the Magadan region of Russia and was extensively studied in 1962-1992.

We combined and analyzed the data of historical materials (1962-1992) with recent data from Landsat and Sentinel images (2000-2020) and our own ground-based observations on the perennial and annual dynamics of aufeis area (2020-2021). Aufeis volume was measured in 1962-1992 and in 2020-2021, but for the period of 2000-2019 the values were estimated based on the regional formula developed by [Sokolov, Sarkysyan, 1981].

Maximum area of aufeis reached 6.6 km2 (about 1.6% of the basin area) in 1967. According to the data of 1969 its volume may grow up to 15.7 million m3. The greatest amplitude of fluctuations in the size of the aufeis (up to 30% of the average long-term value) was observed in the period up to 1976, then it did not exceed 10-15%. The smallest sizes of aufeis were 4.1 km2 and 5.3 million m3 in 1974, 4.3 km2 and 6.4 million m3 in 1990. Thus, over the thirty-year period of observations, the volume of aufeis has halved.

In the recent period, according to satellite data, these values reached the maximum of 5.8 km2 and 12.4 million m3 (2002). The lowest values were 2 times lower than the historical ones (1.9 km2 and 3.6 million m3, 2014). Now, to study the dynamics of aufeis area and volume, the authors have been using UAV shooting. The thickness of the ice is determined by measuring the height of the surface at different periods of the aufeis development. In 2021, the maximum ice thickness reached 4.4 m, and the historical maximum was 8 m.

The intra-annual dynamics of aufeis has also changed. Now the aufeis gets melted completely by August-September, and in the earlier periods the part of the ice sheet (about 4% of its maximum area) remained and was included in the formation of aufeis for the next year.

According to natural and climatic conditions, the river basin in which the Anmangynda aufeis is formed is representative for the mountainous landscapes of the North-Eastern Eurasia. Comprehensive interdisciplinary observations at this site are important to characterize the impact of climate change on natural processes in this region.

The study was carried out with the support of RFBR (19-55-80028, 20-05-00666), Russian Geographical Society (project 07/2021-I (continue)) and St. Petersburg State University (project 75295776).

How to cite: Zemlianskova, A., Alexeev, V., Makarieva, O., Nesterova, N., Shikhov, A., and Ostashov, A.: Temporal dynamics of the giant Anmangynda aufeis characteristics in changing climate, 1962-2021 (North-Eastern Eurasia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-300, 2022.

EGU22-619 | Presentations | CL4.9

The revised Quaternary climatostratigraphy of the Arctic Ocean: linkages with insolation and sea-level changes 

Claude Hillaire-Marcel, Anne de Vernal, and Michel Crucifix

The revised late Pleistocene chronostratigraphy of the Arctic Ocean based on the pre-2000 magnetostratigraphic interpretation and chronological information from the decay of U-series daughter isotopes in sediments leads to reassigning "warm" vs "cold" climatostratigraphic intervals to distinct interglacial, interstadial, or stadial stages and shows a realistic linkage with high latitude insolation parameters and the global sea-level history. "Warm" episodes then match intervals with summer season insolation and sea-level elevation peaking above those of the early Holocene. Whereas the whole summer season insolation governs heat fluxes towards the Arctic Ocean, in relation with the North Atlantic Water inflow, sea level plays a complementary role as it governs the submergence of the Arctic Ocean shelves and the development of “sea-ice factories”. Sea level also controls the flux of warm and low-salinity Pacific water through the shallow Bering Strait, thus the heat budget of the Western Arctic and the salinity budget of the whole Arctic Ocean. The combination of both parameters indicates that climate conditions during recent interglacials were of distinct amplitude and timing vs those at lower latitudes. From MIS 10 to MIS 1, five short "warm" intervals (MIS 1, 3, 5e, 7, 9) were characterized by sea-ice rafting deposition of smectite and detrital carbonate-rich sediments with 230Th-excesses along major drifting sea-ice routes TransPolar Drift; Beaufort Gyre). These layers alternate with coarser layers linked to sporadic and short-duration, Circum-Arctic glacier surges, deposited during stadials. In contradistinction, the MIS 14 to MIS 10 interval have experienced a thick ice-cover (perennial ice or ice shelf) during long periods, including MIS 11 and possibly MIS 13. These interglacials depict relatively a low summer season insolation in contrast with that of other interglacials. Another feature merging from this revision is the shortness of the intervals with seasonally open sea-ice conditions. Often recorded by a few cm-thick sedimentary layers, these intervals are in phase with the mean summer season insolation (not the June solstice peak) and may have lasted a few ka at most, based on the example of the Holocene. Feedbacks from the Arctic Ocean towards climate/ocean conditions at lower latitudes include i) the effect of its sea-ice on albedo and latitudinal pressure gradients, and ii) the impact of its freshwater export on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Due to its specific response to insolation and sea-level changes, the Arctic Ocean may have thus triggered out of phase climate and AMOC fluctuations during interglacials at lower latitudes, but it has globally remained a sediment-starved glacial ocean throughout most of the Brunhes epoch.

How to cite: Hillaire-Marcel, C., de Vernal, A., and Crucifix, M.: The revised Quaternary climatostratigraphy of the Arctic Ocean: linkages with insolation and sea-level changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-619, 2022.

EGU22-1648 | Presentations | CL4.9 | Highlight

Monthly-resolved Freshwater Flux from the Greenland Ice Sheet on a Glacier-Basin Scale 

Nanna Bjørnholt Karlsson, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Anne M. Solgaard, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Robert S. Fausto, and Louise S. Sørensen

The Greenland ice sheet outputs freshwater into the Greenlandic fjords in the form of icebergs and liquid meltwater. This freshwater flux affects the fjords’ water circulation and ecosystems. In recent decades, the mass loss from the ice sheet has increased causing an increasing volume of liquid and solid freshwater to enter the fjords and ocean around Greenland. The total volume of freshwater is currently challenging to determine on a fjord-basin scale due to disparate products that are difficult to compare and combine into a cohesive product. This entails that the effect of the glacially derived freshwater on fjord circulation and ecosystem is not well constrained.

Here, we present a new glacier-basin scale product that combines three existing products into a shared temporal and spatial framework. We use publicly available datasets of solid ice discharge (icebergs), surface meltwater run-off, and basal melt to present a cohesive overview of the influx of freshwater to the Greenlandic fjords. We then quantify the different dominant term for each glacier. The dataset will be freely available and will be of use to, for example, oceanographic and marine biological research activities.

This work was supported by PROMICE (Programme for Monitoring the Greenland Ice Sheet, GEUS) and ESA Polar+ 4D Greenland.

How to cite: Karlsson, N. B., Mankoff, K. D., Solgaard, A. M., Larsen, S. H., Fausto, R. S., and Sørensen, L. S.: Monthly-resolved Freshwater Flux from the Greenland Ice Sheet on a Glacier-Basin Scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1648, 2022.

EGU22-2057 | Presentations | CL4.9

Sea level and the Bering Strait gateway as determinant parameters in the ocean dynamics as illustrated from pan-Arctic Holocene records 

Anne de Vernal, Claude Hillaire-Marcel, Tengfei Song, Yanguang Liu, and Jade Falardeau

The shallow (~ 50 m deep) Bering Strait, which is the unique gateway linking the Pacific Ocean to the Arctic Ocean, deserves special attention as sea-level changes modify considerably the exchanges between the two oceans. Under high sea level, poleward heat transfer and freshwater fluxes from the Pacific impact the Arctic freshwater budget and sea ice distribution. Furthermore, sea level determines the status of the Arctic shelves, submerged or not, which plays a role in sea-ice production, as well as in the latent heat from Atlantic waters flowing northward through Fram Strait and the Barents Sea. Hence, high sea levels result in the connection of the Arctic basin with the Pacific, which modifies the Arctic freshwater and heat budgets and leads to the submergence of shelves, thus the potential development of sea-ice factories. The impacts of sea-level on the Arctic Ocean and subarctic seas are not easily reconstructed from sedimentary records, but radiocarbon-based chronologies and proxy-data covering the present interglacial provide useful information. For example, micropaleontological and geochemical records from the Chukchi Sea show progressive warming in surface water accompanying the increase of Pacific flux during the Holocene, until sea-level reached its present-day limit at ~ 4 ka BP. This contrasts with a trend towards perennial sea-ice cover in the southeastern Arctic and with changes at the eastern gateway of the Fram Strait, where cooling is recorded from early to late Holocene. Hence, we hypothesize that increased freshwater inflow from the Pacific into the Arctic together with enhanced sea-ice formation rates, both linked to sea-level rise, may have played a role in the general cooling trend culminating during the late Holocene.

How to cite: de Vernal, A., Hillaire-Marcel, C., Song, T., Liu, Y., and Falardeau, J.: Sea level and the Bering Strait gateway as determinant parameters in the ocean dynamics as illustrated from pan-Arctic Holocene records, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2057, 2022.

EGU22-3499 | Presentations | CL4.9

The representation of atmospheric processes in northeast Greenland in CMIP6 models 

Carolyne Pickler, Jenny Turton, Thomas Mölg, and Michelle McCrystall

Since the end of the 20th century, Greenland has been the largest contributor to sea level rise.  As temperatures continue to increase, this tendency is projected to continue.  This has resulted in numerous studies which evaluate present and future conditions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, many of which use general circulation models (GCMs). The majority of these focus on sea level rise and/or surface mass balance. While some analyses of atmospheric processes have been undertaken, these have typically been over a larger scale (Arctic or Greenland).  This has led to a lack of regional studies of atmospheric processes and how they are represented in GCMs, particularly over northeast Greenland, an area of increased interest in both its glaciology and atmosphere.

To address this, 67 CMIP6 GCM realizations were subject to the Pickler and Mölg (2021) model selection procedure to determine the most suitable realization over northeast Greenland.  The historical simulation of these realizations were evaluated for: (i) their ability to capture the space-time climatic anomalies over 1979-2014 with respect to ERA5 reanalysis data and (ii) their ability to simulate the mean climatic state of northeast Greenland with respect to four automated weather stations over 2009-2020.  MPI-ESM1-2-HR r6i1p1f1 was found to rank highest and ACCESS-ESM1-5 r10i1p1f1 lowest.

The 67 realizations were then evaluated on their ability to capture two important processes influencing the region: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Greenland blocking (GBI).  All realizations were able to simulate the NAO during boreal winter, while all failed to capture the GBI during boreal summer.  Furthermore, the ability of the top and bottom ranked realizations to simulate precipitation, katabatic winds, sea ice, and warm-air events were examined. This analysis reveals key differences between the representation of regional climates within the GCMs, which highlights the need for a rigorous selection procedure prior to estimating future changes.

How to cite: Pickler, C., Turton, J., Mölg, T., and McCrystall, M.: The representation of atmospheric processes in northeast Greenland in CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3499, 2022.

EGU22-4347 | Presentations | CL4.9

Retreat of the Northeast Greenland ice stream during the last glacial termination - a case study from Norske Trough 

Adrián López-Quirós, Katrine J. Andresen, Joanna Davies, Tuomas Junna, Tove Nielsen, Christof Pearce, and Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), the second largest ice sheet on Earth, has experienced a dramatic ice mass reduction during the last decades, coincident with global warming and an increase in atmospheric CO2. About 16% of the GIS is currently drained via marine terminating glaciers, mostly through the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS; with ~12%). Two cross-shelf troughs (Norske and Westwind troughs) served as drainage pathways of the NEGIS. According to numerical ice-sheet models, a whole meltdown of the GIS may cause a global sea−level rise of >7 m, causing permanent damage to the environment and countless economic impacts on our coastal society. In order to better understand the processes driving these present changes, studies of the development of glaciers/glacial troughs and ice sheets in response to past climate changes are required for testing numerical models that seek to predict ice-sheet response to anthropogenic climate change.

In this study, high-resolution INNOMAR sediment subbottom profiler data combined to multi-proxy analyses of gravity core DA17-NG-ST10-117G, obtained from Norske Trough during the NorthGreen17 expedition, are investigated. Multi-proxy data derived from the sediment gravity core include 14C-derived ages, descriptions of sedimentary units, compositional variability of ice-rafted debris, and continuous logging of magnetic susceptibility and micro-XRF core scanning. In Norske Trough, submarine glacial landforms indicate that ice sheet retreat to the outer middle shelf after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was stepwise, with phases of grounding line stabilization, while ice sheet retreat from the middle shelf to the coastline during deglaciation was fast. Sedimentological evidence at our recorded coring site captures the transition from sub–ice stream (subglacial) environments to proximal (proglacial)/distal glaciomarine conditions during the LGM to Holocene recession. In addition, preliminary foraminifera analysis indicates warmer recirculating Atlantic Water on the middle Norske Trough immediately on deglaciation, suggesting that oceanic forcing very likely played a significant role during the retreat of the ice margin. This presentation will include a comprehensive comparison of the spatio-temporal sedimentation patterns across the Norske Trough.

How to cite: López-Quirós, A., Andresen, K. J., Davies, J., Junna, T., Nielsen, T., Pearce, C., and Seidenkrantz, M.-S.: Retreat of the Northeast Greenland ice stream during the last glacial termination - a case study from Norske Trough, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4347, 2022.

EGU22-4935 | Presentations | CL4.9

Abrupt climate changes caused by meltwater pulses in the Labrador Sea during the last glacial termination 

Defang You, Ruediger Stein, and Kirsten Fahl

The last glacial termination is an unstable transition state characterized by abrupt climate changes, while the related physical mechanisms are still not fully understood. Here, we present well-dated high-resolution sedimentary records from the eastern Labrador Sea representing the last 23 ka. Based on our biomarker records, there was seasonal to permanent sea ice cover before 11.7 ka BP. During 11.7 to 8.2 ka BP, ice-free conditions were interrupted by several sea ice expansions, while no sea ice after 8.2 ka BP. Besides Heinrich Event 1, four prominent cold events have been identified during 14 ka to 8.2 ka BP. These abrupt events are marked by increases in sea ice, decreases in sea surface temperature, and weak deep current intensity. We propose that these events were mainly triggered by collapses of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and/or Greenland Ice Sheet, resulting in icebergs/meltwater in pulses into the Labrador Sea. This caused surface freshening, which potentially promoted the stratification of surface water, prevented the northward inflow of Atlantic Water, and limited deep water production in the Nordic Seas, consequently disrupting the climate.

How to cite: You, D., Stein, R., and Fahl, K.: Abrupt climate changes caused by meltwater pulses in the Labrador Sea during the last glacial termination, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4935, 2022.

EGU22-5172 | Presentations | CL4.9

The nature of the Arctic lapse-rate feedback: Spatial distribution, seasonality and trends in ERA5 and CMIP6 data 

Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, and Christopher Smith

The Arctic amplification is driven by several intertwined causes including the interplay of locally positive radiative feedbacks. The lapse-rate feedback (LRF) is a dominant driver of Arctic amplification and arises from the vertically non-uniform warming in the troposphere. In the Arctic, the LRF enforces a positive radiative feedback as the warming is most pronounced at the surface, but becomes smaller at higher altitudes which feedbacks positively on the initial greenhouse effect. This stands in contrast to the processes in the tropics, where a stronger warming of the upper troposphere dampens the greenhouse effect.

We investigate the nature of the Arctic LRF by using ERA5 Reanalyses and CMIP6 models to compute the feedback via simplified radiative transfer calculations (radiative kernels).

The Arctic LRF is unique in terms of its geographic distribution, seasonality and time evolution. From a global perspective, the LRF is most positive in Arctic winter, but shows the strongest seasonality as it becomes negative in summer over the sea ice covered ocean. Our trend analysis shows that the positive winter LRF increased strongly during the past 30 to 40 years. This increase during boreal winter mediates the annual response and accounts for all Arctic surface types which we define as sea ice, sea ice retreat, open ocean and land. A special focus lies on regions of retreating sea ice, where the positive LRF is strongest throughout the year.

Our results are embedded in previous studies on the changing Arctic atmospheric energy budget through CO2-driven climate change. They show strongly increasing surface heat fluxes over areas of retreating sea ice which is mostly compensated by a decrease in atmospheric transport convergence, both of which can shape the maximum of the high-latitude positive LRF.

We finally carry out an inter-model comparison of linear trends of the Arctic LRF during the past 30 years of historical CMIP6 simulations. This includes more than 50 models to determine the performance of each model by relating to reanalyses data.

How to cite: Linke, O., Quaas, J., and Smith, C.: The nature of the Arctic lapse-rate feedback: Spatial distribution, seasonality and trends in ERA5 and CMIP6 data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5172, 2022.

EGU22-5289 | Presentations | CL4.9

Linkages between ocean circulation and the Zachariae Isstrøm in the Early Holocene 

Joanna Davies, Anders Møller Mathiasen, Kristiane Kristiansen, Katrine Elnegaard Hansen, Lukas Wacker, Aage Kristian Olsen Alstrup, Ole Lajord Munk, Christof Pearce, and Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz

It is unequivocal that the climate is changing; marine terminating glaciers in Northeast Greenland (NEG) have experienced rapid speedup and retreat in recent decades as a result. The Zachariae Isstrøm (ZI) began accelerating in 2000, resulting in the total collapse of its floating ice tongue. This has been partly attributed to basal melting caused by the warming of Atlantic Water (AW). Unfortunately, our understanding of the interaction between these entities is somewhat limited by the length of instrumental records. Examining proxies preserved in marine sediment cores provides an alternative method to understand these changes on longer timescales.

Here we apply a multi-proxy approach (XRF, benthic foraminifera, stable isotopes, grain size, CT scans) to marine sediment core DA17-NG-ST08-092G, collected from the NEG continental shelf, 90km east of the ZI terminus. Our results indicate that the site was free of grounded ice at least as early as 12.5 ka cal BP, and most likely before 13.4 ka cal BP. The inflow of AW onto the continental shelf may have played a role in the seemingly early deglaciation at this site. Between 13.4 and 11.2 ka cal BP the site was overlain by a floating ice tongue, most likely the ZI, with AW and PW flowing beneath. Following this, the ZI briefly retreated westwards (11.2-10.8 ka cal BP) before it re-advanced (10.8-9.6 ka cal BP); there was a strong influx of AW throughout these periods. Between 9.6 and 7.9 ka cal BP the ZI retreated westwards again, before a drastic shift in ocean circulation occurred at 7.9 ka cal BP. At this time, there was a sharp decline in AW corresponding to an increase in PW flowing beneath perennial sea ice. In the final part of the record, AW returns and there was likely a breakup of the perennial sea ice.

How to cite: Davies, J., Møller Mathiasen, A., Kristiansen, K., Elnegaard Hansen, K., Wacker, L., Kristian Olsen Alstrup, A., Lajord Munk, O., Pearce, C., and Seidenkrantz, M.-S.: Linkages between ocean circulation and the Zachariae Isstrøm in the Early Holocene, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5289, 2022.

Several recent cold winters in North America and Western Europe has drawn attention on the possible increase in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme events in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere. Whether these could result form a strengthening or weakening of the circumpolar vortex and/or shift in the position of the North Atlantic storm track is still a matter of hot debate. A less known player in this conundrum is the dynamics of the Siberian High, one of the major semi–permanent and quasi–stationary weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere; active in winter and associated with dense and cold air masses over Asia and East Europe. The causes behind the variability of the of the Siberian High (strengthening and south and westwards expansion) are still poorly understood, yet important in the context of future climatic changes expected in the core area of its manifestation. In this context, we present here an overview of the present and past (~5000 years) dynamics of the Siberian High, based on 1) modern climate data from Asia and Eastern Europe and 2) proxy-based reconstructions of winter climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation amount). Our analysis starts with a instrumental-based investigation of the mechanisms behind the onset, strengthening and westward expansion of the high-pressure cell centered over North Asia. We further construct and test several hypotheses behind these mechanisms and test them by analyzing the dynamics of winter conditions during several episodes of particularly cold events in the Northern hemisphere (at 4.2 ka BP, 2.8 ka BP, 1.3 ka BP, 0.8-0.2 ka BP). We tentatively suggest that high insolation gradients between summer and winter in the high–latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere could result in the weakening of the polar vortex and increase in the meandering behavior of the jet that leads to an early onset of winter in North Asia. The expanding snow cover reinforces the strength of the Siberian High, leading to its expansion towards south and west and thus bringing colder conditions in West Asia and Europe. Future Arctic amplification could result in a higher frequency of similar behavior of the climate system, thus leading to more frequent and stronger cold spells across Europe.

How to cite: Perşoiu, A. and Ionita, M.: The Beast from the East - winter atmospheric blocking over Eastern Europe during the Late Holocene and its role in regional climate variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5951, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5951, 2022.

EGU22-5982 | Presentations | CL4.9

Atmospheric internal variability shapes the Arctic change and its feedback on local and remote circulation 

Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Mingfang Ting, Stefan Sobolowski, Yutian Wu, and Xiaodan Chen

Arctic sea ice loss in recent decades has been proposed to influence atmospheric circulation at lower latitudes, producing feedbacks that amplify ice loss via thermodynamic and mechanical forcing. One proposed teleconnection pathway arises from autumn Barents-Kara sea ice reduction and leads to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter. The existence of such a pathway could improve predictions of  European weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. While autumn sea ice and the winter NAO are significantly correlated in satellite-era observations, this correlation appears to be absent in  coupled climate models, calling into question the underlying mechanism. By subsampling long simulations to create satellite-length records, we find a small number of samples across a range of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that reproduce the observed correlation. In these samples, we observe similar circulation signals (e.g., weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex) as in the observations, but there is no evidence for a driving role from sea ice changes via turbulent heat fluxes. Rather than sea ice, blocking of the atmospheric circulation by the Ural mountains appears to be the key precursor to the winter NAO signal. Overall, our findings reconcile differences between observations and models in representing this Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection, and highlight the important role of atmospheric internal variability in Arctic change. 

How to cite: Siew, P. Y. F., Li, C., Ting, M., Sobolowski, S., Wu, Y., and Chen, X.: Atmospheric internal variability shapes the Arctic change and its feedback on local and remote circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5982, 2022.

EGU22-6260 | Presentations | CL4.9

Baffin Bay surface flux perspectives on autumn Greenland blocking 

Thomas Ballinger, Daniel Topal, Qinghua Ding, Zhe Li, Linette Boisvert, Edward Hanna, and Timo Vihma

The northwest Atlantic Arctic has been recently characterized by rapid environmental change. Examples in the last two-to-three decades include: accelerated retreat of eastern Canadian Arctic glaciers, melt over high-elevation and latitude areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), and shifts in Baffin Bay ice phenology. Many of these glaciological changes and associated extreme events are linked to atmospheric circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic and surrounding areas, including the frequent, intense, and/or persistent presence of Greenland blocking anticyclones. These mid-tropospheric (i.e., 500 hPa) high-pressure cells are often accompanied by invigorated temperature and moisture advection and cloud radiative processes that are known to provoke widespread melt of the region’s cryosphere, even during periods when melt tends to be uncommon. Blocking characteristics are often associated with melt processes, but how these processes and related air-sea exchanges feedback on this type of upper-level atmospheric pattern largely remain uncertain. Evaluating these processes and their uncertainties is especially relevant in the cold season, when upward surface fluxes persist along the ice edge and through thin sea ice cover. Such system-level interactions deserve attention for their multi-scalar effects on the local climate and cryosphere and impacts on the polar jet stream that influences North American and European weather regimes.

This study focuses on the autumn season (September-December) to evaluate interactions involving Baffin Bay’s ice cover and its turbulent and radiative fluxes, and regional atmospheric circulation and winds. Focus is directed on this season as net surface fluxes climatologically tend to intensify from one month to the next and have increased roughly in tandem with the strength and motion characteristics of the overlying circulation described by the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI), and Greenland Streamfunction Index (GSI), respectively. Using flux data from ERA5 reanalysis and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), we utilize bi-and-multivariate techniques to examine how individual and collective surface flux terms relate to the autumn GBI/GSI variability and trends since 1979. We then take a process-scale view, and investigate such interactions between the Baffin Bay boundary conditions, associated surface fluxes, and the GBI/GSI patterns in months where extremes occur in the ice cover and GBI/GSI independently as well as in tandem for applicable cases. We further aim to model the interaction between autumn Baffin ice-ocean surface fluxes and upper-level patterns using CAM6 Prescribed SST AMIP Ensembles and wind-nudging CESM experiments to isolate the role of Baffin environmental change on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and vice versa.

How to cite: Ballinger, T., Topal, D., Ding, Q., Li, Z., Boisvert, L., Hanna, E., and Vihma, T.: Baffin Bay surface flux perspectives on autumn Greenland blocking, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6260, 2022.

EGU22-7438 | Presentations | CL4.9 | Highlight

Eurasian wintertime cooling: New perspectives from an updated synthesis 

Stephen Outten and Camille Li

Over a decade ago, researchers noticed that as the Arctic warmed rapidly, there was an apparent cooling over large areas of central Eurasia in the wintertime. Many theories were put forward suggesting that changes in wintertime sea-ice were linked to this observed cooling through some hereto unknown teleconnection. Numerous studies based on observations, reanalyses, and a vast array of modelling experiments have been undertaken to resolve this question. The ongoing debate regarding Arctic to mid-latitude teleconnections over the Eurasian sector has divided the scientific community, as highlighted by the work of Cohen et al. [2020], primarily between those in favour of sea-ice having a key role in giving rise to the cooling, and those who believe the cooling is primarily the result of internal atmospheric variability. While Eurasian cooling itself has mostly ended, the debate continues due to a desire to better understand the teleconnections underlying Northern Hemisphere climate variability.

Here we discuss a new synthesis study into Eurasian cooling, undertaken by an extensive team at the Bjerknes Centre over the past two years. The work breaks down the debate into a simple structure, examining first the findings of the observational-based studies and the modelling-based studies separately. In evaluating this body of literature, we attempt to avoid categorizing studies based on the researchers’ interpretations of their findings, and focus where possible on only the facts of what their analyses and simulations show. This has allowed us to reconcile some of the apparently conflicting results in the literature. To be clear, we do not present a new mechanistic understanding of the processes underlying Eurasian cooling. However, laying out the existing research in an objective and structured manner has allowed us to propose a new framework within which to view the problem, wherein we clarify the distinct roles of internal variability and an external (sea-ice driven) forcing of Eurasian cooling.

How to cite: Outten, S. and Li, C.: Eurasian wintertime cooling: New perspectives from an updated synthesis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7438, 2022.

EGU22-7950 | Presentations | CL4.9

Sensitivity of stratospheric pathways of Arctic-midlatitude linkages to the modification of the gravity wave drag parameterization in ICON model using deep learning 

Sina Mehrdad, Khalil Karami, Dörthe Handorf, Johannes Quaas, Ines Höschel, and Christoph Jacobi

The global warming has been observed to be more severe in the Arctic compared to the rest of the world. This enhanced warming i.e. Arctic Amplification is not just the result of local feedback processes in the Arctic. The stratospheric pathways of Arctic-midlatitude linkages and large-scale dynamical processes can contribute to the Arctic Amplification. The polar stratospheric dynamics crucially depends on the atmospheric waves at all scales. The winter polar vortex can be disturbed by gravity waves in the middle atmosphere. To investigate the sensitivity of the polar vortex dynamics, large-scale dynamical processes, and the stratospheric pathways of the Arctic-midlatitude linkages to the modification of gravity wave drag, we conduct sensitivity experiments using the global atmospheric model ICON-NWP (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic Model for Numerical Weather Prediction). These sensitivity experiments are performed by imposing a repeated annual cycle of the year 1985 for sea surface temperatures and sea ice as lower boundary conditions and for greenhouse gas concentrations as external forcing. This year is selected as both El-Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation were in their neutral phase and no explosive volcanic eruption has occurred. Hence, lower boundary and external forcing conditions in this year can serve as a useful proxy for the multi-year mean condition and an estimate of its internal variability. We performed simulations where in the control simulation the sub-grid parameterization scheme for both orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drags are switched on. The other two experiments are identical to the control simulation except that either orographic or non-orographic gravity wave drags are switched off.

    Recently, deep learning has extraordinarily progressed our ability to recognize complex patterns in big datasets. Deep neural networks have shown great capabilities to capture the dynamical process of the atmosphere. Applying deep learning algorithms on experiments’ results, the impact of gravity wave drag modifications on large-scale mechanisms of the Arctic Amplification will be analyzed. Special emphasis will be put on the effects of gravity wave drag modifications on the polar vortex dynamics.

How to cite: Mehrdad, S., Karami, K., Handorf, D., Quaas, J., Höschel, I., and Jacobi, C.: Sensitivity of stratospheric pathways of Arctic-midlatitude linkages to the modification of the gravity wave drag parameterization in ICON model using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7950, 2022.

The Lancaster Sound is currently one of the pathways for Arctic water and ice entering Baffin Bay. However, this gateway was blocked by the coalescing Laurentide and Innuitian Ice Sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum and only opened during the early Holocene after the various ice sheets had retreated (Dyke et al., 2002; Dalton et al., 2020). Core GeoB22336-4 is a well radiocarbon-dated sediment record from the Lancaster Sound Trough Mouth. Sedimentological and geochemical (elemental and mineralogical) properties of this core revealed four major units: (i) the deglacial unit (~14.5 – 9.7 ka BP) with a dense, foraminifera-free, gravel-rich diamict (>14.0 ka BP) that captures proximal ice-margin conditions, probably deposited under an extended thick ice-shelf environment, overlain by rapidly deposited gravel-bearing sandy-silty mud with intercalated turbidite layers reflecting strong input of ice-rafted material and mass wasting, likely resulting from the fast landward retreat of bordering ice sheets in response to regional warming; (ii) the early Holocene unit (~9.7 – 8 ka BP) characterized by a drop in sedimentation rate and the absence of ice-rafted material and reduction in detrital carbonates, suggesting a switch from tide-water to predominately land-terminating glaciers during glacial retreat; (iii) the unit deposited contemporaneously with the regional Holocene Optimum (~8 – 5.9 ka BP; Ledu et al., 2010; Jennings et al., 2011; St-Onge & St-Onge 2014) consists of rapidly deposited rather fine-grained sediments (up to 52 cm ka-1) possibly related to enhanced meltwater- and/or sea-ice-driven sediment input; and (iv) the neoglacial unit (<5.9 ka BP) with reduced sedimentation rates, a sediment provenance switch from calcite-dominated to dolomite-dominated detrital carbonates, and an increased organic matter flux to the seafloor, which led to a four-fold increase in bioturbation. This diverse sedimentary record reflects the complex ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions controlling the sedimentary dynamics and sediment provenance in northwestern Baffin Bay from the last deglaciation through the Holocene. It sheds light on the complex interaction between sediments delivered by local meltwater sources, mass wasting, iceberg and sea ice-rafting, the opening of the Arctic gateways through Lancaster Sound and Nares Strait, and the influence of warm Atlantic Water (AW). In addition, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) possibly governs surface waters and primary production in northern Baffin Bay including the development and extension of the North Water Polynya (NOW).

How to cite: Okuma, E., Titschack, J., Weiser, J., Kienast, M., Vogt, C., and Hebbeln, D.: Deglacial to Holocene changes in sediment characteristics and provenance in core GeoB22336-4 from Lancaster Sound Trough Mouth: Implications for environmental conditions in northwestern Baffin Bay, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8403, 2022.

EGU22-8791 | Presentations | CL4.9

Seawater isotopic measurements (δ18O and δD) reveal significant freshwater influxes into the Arctic seas 

Ben Kopec, Eric Klein, Shawn Pedron, Hannah Bailey, Douglas Causey, Alun Hubbard, Hannu Marttila, Kashif Noor, and Jeffrey Welker

As the Arctic warms, one of the fundamental changes has been the freshening of Arctic ocean waters, impacting ocean circulation and marine ecosystems, among many other critical changes. This increase in freshwater is largely the result of increased precipitation and runoff as part of an amplified Arctic water cycle and increased influx of glacial meltwater from around the Arctic, particularly from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Tracing the sources and extent of this freshwater is critical to understanding future changes to the Arctic seas. One way of delineating these water masses is through measuring its isotopic composition (δ18O and δD), where the freshwater varies significantly from older and other ocean water sources.

In order to identify these freshwater influxes, we conducted in-situ measurements aboard the USCGC Healy that transited the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, the Northwest Passage, and performed numerous transects across Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, including detailed examinations of several key fjords and coastal regions of Greenland, during autumn of 2021. Over the length of this 45 day expedition, we continuously measured the isotopic composition (δ18O and δD) of surface seawater allowing us to fingerprint these sources of freshwater and assess the spatial extent of their influence. We also collected discrete samples from over 100 CTD casts, primarily in Baffin Bay, to identify how freshwater is distributed in the ocean water column. Through these measurements, we identified numerous freshwater influxes, including anomalously high proportions of freshwater in sections of the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska and in Uummannaq Fjord along the west Greenland coast. These isotopic measurements also allow for the disentangling of different freshwater sources (i.e., precipitation or glacial meltwater). Additionally, we find that the freshwater pulses along the west coast of Greenland corresponded with relatively high levels of chlorophyll and fluorescence, suggesting a possible link between this increase in biologic productivity and an increase in the proportion of freshwater.

How to cite: Kopec, B., Klein, E., Pedron, S., Bailey, H., Causey, D., Hubbard, A., Marttila, H., Noor, K., and Welker, J.: Seawater isotopic measurements (δ18O and δD) reveal significant freshwater influxes into the Arctic seas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8791, 2022.

Source-specific highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs) have been recently served as a binary or semi-quantitative biomarker to indicate the sea ice extent in the past. Since the light intensity controlled by overlying snow cover and sea ice thickness has a significant impact on the productivity of photoautotrophic organisms and environmental water is the sole source of the hydrogen for the biosynthesis of these organisms, the hydrogen isotope ratio (2H/1H) of HBIs holds the potential to reveal more characteristics of sea ice. In this study, based on the observation of natural settings underneath sea ice, diatom Pleurosigma intermedium were grown at irradiances from 20 to 300 μmol m-2 s-1 in laboratory conditions and harvested from exponential phase and stationary phase respectively to investigate the effect of light and growth phase on hydrogen isotope fractionation in HBIs. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) screening showed that a triene (C25:3) and a tetraene (C25:4) C25 HBI alkene were detected in all samples from varying irradiances. A remarkable decline of the ratio of C25:3/C25:4 from higher to lower irradiances was observed. However, there was no significant change in the concentration of C14 (myristic), C16:1 (palmitoleic) and C16 (palmitic) fatty acids with varying light intensity. In addition, terpenoids such as phytol, squalene and range of sterols were also be identified. Published studies on phytol, fatty acid and sterol from Thalassiosira pseudonana and alkenones from Emiliania huxleyi have shown dramatic changes in hydrogen isotope fractionation and concluded that the source of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) and the operation of acetogenic pathway, plastidic methylerythritol phosphate (MEP) and/or cytosolic mevalonic acid (MVA) of lipids are the key factors controlling 2H/1H fractionation. The integration of molecular distribution of HBIs, fatty acids and terpenoids in Pleurosigma intermedium together with our ongoing work on their 2H/1H and 13C/12C compositions will lead to a better understanding of diatom metabolism and biochemistry under different light conditions. This knowledge will be instrumental to a more robust interpretation of stable isotope data from environmental samples and thus will contribute to further developing HBI biomarkers as a tool for estimating not only the absence/presence of sea ice but also the ice type, thickness, and snow cover.

How to cite: Gao, S., Zhao, Y., Zhou, Y., Smik, L., Belt, S., Mock, T., and Pedentchouk, N.: The effect of irradiance on lipids of highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs) producing diatom culture of Pleurosigma intermedium: towards stable isotope proxies for the paleo sea-ice reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8979, 2022.

EGU22-9431 | Presentations | CL4.9

Late Glacial paleoceanography in the outer Norske Trough, NE Greenland 

Tuomas Junna, Christof Pearce, Katrine Hansen, Joanna Davies, Adrián Quirós, and Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz

The NE Greenland shelf, together with the Fram Strait, form the main sea ice and cold-water transport pathway between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic seas. As such, these regions play a part in the Atlantic meridional overturning cell that is driven by the thermohaline convection taking place in subpolar and Polar regions. The ocean circulation, freshwater export and sea ice extent are heavily influenced by the interplay of oceanography, climate, glacial landforms and bathymetry.

Over the outer NE Greenland shelf, a layer of low salinity, cold Polar Water overlies a body of Atlantic Water (AW) that is either recirculated directly across the Fram Strait or further in the Arctic Ocean from where it returns as colder, modified Arctic-Atlantic Water. The relative contributions of these two types of AW recirculation bear significant implications to the deep-water formation and thus, the global ocean circulation, but little is known about the change in AW source over time and how it affects the local environmental settings.

This study aims to describe the paleoceanographic development of the outer Norske Trough using a multi-proxy approach to sediment gravity core DA17-NG-ST12-135G.  The core was taken on the NorthGreen17 Expedition from the outmost location in an east-west transect of cores along the trough. When combined with the other cores, it can be used to reconstruct the  oceanic forcing on the northeastern Greenland Ice Sheet  and its deglaciation history along the Norske Trough. The data used includes AMS 14C dating, sedimentary description, grain size analysis, µ-XRF core scanning and benthic foraminifera analysis. The preliminary results suggest intermittent early AW water influence and high seasonal productivity just east of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream grounding line during the early deglaciation. AW influence on the outer NE Greenland Shelf is relatively constant after the deglaciation, but changes in productivity and current strengths are captured by the data.

How to cite: Junna, T., Pearce, C., Hansen, K., Davies, J., Quirós, A., and Seidenkrantz, M.-S.: Late Glacial paleoceanography in the outer Norske Trough, NE Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9431, 2022.

EGU22-9645 | Presentations | CL4.9

Variability of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the 6 largest Arctic rivers estimated using high resolution Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 imageries over the 2013-2021 period. 

Fabrice Jégou, Gaëtane Jallais, Elodie Salmon, Bertrand Guenet, Pierre-Alexis Herrault, Sébastien Gogo, Laure Gandois, Christophe Guimbaud, Fatima Laggoun-Defarge, Nathalie Moulard, Roman Teisserenc, and Jean-Sébastien Moquet

Climate warming with permafrost thaw will modify lateral carbon export, from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems with a potential huge impact on the Arctic rivers, draining organic-rich soils and in fine into the Arctic Ocean. The majority of annual DOC fluxes by Arctic rivers are transported during the snowmelt break-up period, which makes field measurements of DOC difficult. Passive spatial remote sensing is a very relevant tool to increase the spatial and temporal coverage of these observed values.

In the framework of the French CNES DOC-Rivers project we proposed to apply the approach consisting in analyzing satellite imageries to evaluate DOC concentrations in the 6 great Arctic Rivers: Lena, Ob’, Yenisey, Yukon, MacKenzie, Kolyma. The algorithm, first, establishes a multi-linear relationship between ground-based chromatic dissolved organic matter (CDOM) observations and specific satellite color bands to construct a complete satellite CDOM database. Another linear regression is used afterward with in-situ data from the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory (ArcticGRO) initiative to correlate CDOM and DOC observations. Using this second linear regression, we can predict the DOC content from the previous construct satellite CDOM database. River discharge measurements from the ArcticGRO database also enable to estimate the evolution of DOC export to the Arctic Ocean from satellite data.

We applied this approach to high-resolution satellite data issued from Sentinel 2 (A 2015-2022, B 2017-2022) and Landsat 8 (2013-2022) to create a multi-instrumental synergy. This new database provides an unprecedented source of information for understanding DOC dynamics of in Arctic rivers and assessing its transfer from large catchments to the Arctic Ocean. This database provides information on the variability of DOC during the whole ice-free season and serve to locate areas with higher concentrations and fluxes during the 2013-2021 period. We plan to complement our database on future period with data from new satellite missions (Landsat 9, Sentinel 2C), on the present time with data from on-going missions (Sentinel 3, MODIS) and on past period with data from low resolution observations as Landsat 5 and Landsat 7. This extension of the database over a longer period of time will furnish insight in response to climate warming.

How to cite: Jégou, F., Jallais, G., Salmon, E., Guenet, B., Herrault, P.-A., Gogo, S., Gandois, L., Guimbaud, C., Laggoun-Defarge, F., Moulard, N., Teisserenc, R., and Moquet, J.-S.: Variability of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the 6 largest Arctic rivers estimated using high resolution Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 imageries over the 2013-2021 period., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9645, 2022.

EGU22-10999 | Presentations | CL4.9

Rectified multiyear warming in high latitudes by interannually varying biomass burning emissions in CESM2 Large Ensemble simulations 

Ji-Eun Kim, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Keith Rodgers, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Karl Stein, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, John Fasullo, Clara Deser, Isla Simpson, Nan Rosenbloom, Jim Edwards, Jennifer Kay, and Malte Steuker

A merged biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emission dataset of satellite observations with fire proxies and fire models has been used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. Although this utilizes best estimates of fire emissions based on available observations, it results in inconsistency in interannual variability of BBA forcing in CMIP6 between the period of satellite-based fire emissions (1997-2014) and the periods before and after. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) simulations, we identify rectified multiyear mean climate responses to interannually varying BBA emissions. The comparison of 50 ensemble members forced by high BBA variability with 50 members by low BBA variability over a limited time domain provides a unique opportunity to identify a forced climate response to interannual fluctuations of fire emissions with high fidelity. While mean aerosol emissions are nearly conserved between the two sets of ensembles, there is detectable warming in northern high latitudes with regionally distinct seasonal changes in response to variable emissions. We find that the multiyear warming occurs in concert with a net loss of soil ice and moisture in addition to a loss of Arctic sea ice. Our results suggest that the magnitude of interannual variability of aerosol emissions can act as climate forcing over multiple years through nonlinear interactions with the cryosphere and soil processes.

How to cite: Kim, J.-E., Yamaguchi, R., Rodgers, K., Timmermann, A., Lee, S.-S., Stein, K., Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Fasullo, J., Deser, C., Simpson, I., Rosenbloom, N., Edwards, J., Kay, J., and Steuker, M.: Rectified multiyear warming in high latitudes by interannually varying biomass burning emissions in CESM2 Large Ensemble simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10999, 2022.

EGU22-11174 | Presentations | CL4.9

Late Quaternary deglaciation pattern of Lancaster Sound and Barrow Strait traced by radiogenic isotope records in marine sediments 

Johanna Hingst, Claude Hillaire-Marcel, Friedrich Lucassen, Emmanuel Okuma, and Simone Kasemann

The retreat of the Laurentide and Innuitian Ice Sheets in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) during the late Quaternary led to the opening of Arctic gateways and the inflow of low salinity Arctic waters into Baffin Bay. Studies on marine sediments focusing on the timing and deglaciation pattern of Canadian Archipelago straits mainly concentrated on the Holocene. Here we present two marine radiogenic isotope records from the mouth of Lancaster Sound (GeoB22336-4) and from Barrow Strait (PS72/287) that cover the last ~14.5 ka BP, thus encompass the earlier deglaciation stage. The radiogenic isotope composition (Nd, Sr, Pb) of the detrital sediment fraction serves as provenance tracer and provides information on changing position of the ice margin and oceanographic conditions. Data from both sediment cores show contributions from highly variable source areas during deglaciation in response to the dynamics of the glacier termini involved. However, a strong influence of detrital carbonates, likely eroded from carbonate outcrops of the CAA and northern Baffin Island, by retreating ice, constitutes a dominant feature. Later, the post-glacial deposits recorded more uniform radiogenic isotope signatures until the mid/late Holocene transition, indicating relatively stable environmental conditions. In addition to local sources, isotope compositions in Lancaster Sound illustrate an increasing influence of sediments from Barrow Strait and thus the setting of oceanographic conditions enabling sediment transport from the central CAA towards the NW Baffin Bay. According to these observations and based on a preliminary age model, complete deglaciation with subsequent flushing of major channels is assumed to have occurred at approximately 10 ka BP. During the late Holocene, slightly changing Sr, Pb, and Nd isotope signatures in both cores probably indicate renewed regional ice advances in response to the neoglacial cooling.

How to cite: Hingst, J., Hillaire-Marcel, C., Lucassen, F., Okuma, E., and Kasemann, S.: Late Quaternary deglaciation pattern of Lancaster Sound and Barrow Strait traced by radiogenic isotope records in marine sediments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11174, 2022.

EGU22-11646 | Presentations | CL4.9

Variability of Atlantic Water on shelf of Northeast Greenland: Patterns and Drivers 

Rebecca McPherson, Claudia Wekerle, and Torsten Kanzow

During the last two decades, rising ocean temperatures have significantly contributed to accelerated mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The melting of the ice sheet is now the single largest contributor to global mean sea level rise. Warming subsurface Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) found on the wide continental shelf of Northeast Greenland and in the fjords interacts with marine-terminating glaciers, which until recently were considered stable, and causes their rapid melting and retreat. The main source of these waters is the westward recirculation of subducted Atlantic Water (AW) in Fram Strait, which has shown a warming of up to 1°C over the past few decades.

The variability of the AIW on the Northeast Greenland (NEG) shelf is investigated using historical hydrographic observations and high-resolution numerical simulations with the Finite-Element-Sea ice-Model (FESOM2). There is excellent agreement of both the mean and long-term distribution of AIW on the shelf between the model and observations. The two main circulation regimes of AW in Fram Strait are also well-replicated by the numerical simulations.

The dominant variability of the AIW temperature occurs at interannual timescales. A shelf-wide process drives this variability of AIW temperatures. EOF analysis shows that over 81% of the variance of maximum AIW temperatures is explained by the first mode, which features a monopol-like pattern across the whole NEG shelf. There is a strong co-variability between the maximum AIW temperature and the volume transport of AIW towards the glaciers, which moves through the deep trough system as a bottom intensified jet and recirculates on the shelf. A connection between the AIW temperatures on the shelf and the AW boundary current along the shelf edge suggests the East Greenland Current influences AIW properties. An increase in strength of the current corresponds to greater AIW volume transport through the trough system, and also warmer AIW and AW temperatures on both the shelf and off the continental slope. This suggests that the drivers of variability of AIW temperatures on the NEG shelf may be found further offshore, with a connection to AW circulation in Fram Strait.

How to cite: McPherson, R., Wekerle, C., and Kanzow, T.: Variability of Atlantic Water on shelf of Northeast Greenland: Patterns and Drivers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11646, 2022.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are generally considered to be transient and concurrent with an extratropical cyclone (Ralph et al. 2018). However, this is not necessarily the case for the ARs in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Despite several climatological surveys on the EASM ARs in recent years (e.g., Park et al. 2021a), through what processes they develop is still unclear because of the complex interplay between monsoonal and extratropical circulations in the region (Horinouchi 2014; Park et al. 2021b).

In this talk, we demonstrate that the EASM ARs have different “flavors” in terms of moisture transport characteristics. By quantifying the relative contribution of high- and low-frequency components of the integrated water vapor transport anomaly (IVTA) for each AR, it is found that both components are important in East Asia summer, in contrast to the ARs in the U.S. west coast where the high-frequency component is predominant.

To investigate the synoptic condition governing the high- and low-frequency IVTA, the EASM ARs are classified into the three categories—1) transient, 2) quasi-stationary and 3) intermediate ARs—depending on the fractional contribution of high-frequency IVTA to total IVTA. While the transient ARs are driven by an extratropical cyclone in an analogy of classical ARs, the quasi-stationary ARs are associated with an anomalously enhanced monsoon flow. The intermediate ARs, which are a majority of summertime ARs in East Asia, show the confounding features of the two types. We suggest that the concept of “transient” and “quasi-stationary” AR flavors offer an important foundation in understanding the EASM ARs with a variety of underlying dynamics. Further implications and possible future works will be also discussed.

References:

Horinouchi, T., 2014: Influence of upper tropospheric disturbances on the synoptic variability of precipitation and moisture transport over summertime East Asia and the northwestern Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 92, 519–541, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2014-602.

Park, C., S.-W. Son, and H. Kim, 2021a: Distinct features of atmospheric rivers in the early versus late EASM and their impacts on monsoon rainfall. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2020JD033537, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033537.

Park, C., S.-W. Son, and J.-H. Kim, 2021b: Role of baroclinic trough in triggering vertical motion during summertime heavy rainfall events in Korea. J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 1687–1702, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0216.1.

Ralph, F. M., M. D. Dettinger, M. M. Cairns, T. J. Galarneau, and J. Eylander, 2018: Defining “atmospheric river”: How the glossary of meteorology helped resolve a debate. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 837–839. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1.

How to cite: Park, C. and Son, S.-W.: Transient versus quasi-stationary flavors of atmospheric rivers during East Asian summer monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-242, 2022.

EGU22-1381 | Presentations | AS1.8

Uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation minus evaporation: Dominant role of dynamic circulation changes and weak role for thermodynamic changes 

Eilat Elbaum, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ori Adam, Efrat Morin, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Uri Dayan

End of century projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models show a decrease in precipitation over subtropical oceans that often extends into surrounding land areas, but with substantial intermodel spread. Changes in precipitation are controlled by both thermodynamical and dynamical processes, though the importance of these processes for regional scales and for intermodel spread is not well understood. The contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to the model spread in regional precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) is computed for 48 CMIP models. The intermodel spread is dominated essentially everywhere by the change of the dynamic term, including in most regions where thermodynamic changes dominate the multi-model mean response. The dominant role of dynamic changes is insensitive to zonal averaging which removes any influence of stationary wave changes, and is also evident in subtropical oceanic regions. Relatedly, intermodel spread in P-E is generally unrelated to climate sensitivity.

How to cite: Elbaum, E., Garfinkel, C. I., Adam, O., Morin, E., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., and Dayan, U.: Uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation minus evaporation: Dominant role of dynamic circulation changes and weak role for thermodynamic changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1381, 2022.

EGU22-1630 | Presentations | AS1.8

Relationship between the Central Asian Subtropical Westerly and Northwest Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall 

Nabeela Sadaf, Yanluan Lin, and Wenhao Dong

In addition to various factors over the tropics, the interannual variability of northwest Indian summer monsoon (NWISM) rainfall is also regulated by extratropical signals. We defined a subtropical westerly jet index (SWJI) based on the meridional position and intensity of 200-hPa zonal wind within [25-55°N, 40-90°E]. It is found that SWJI exhibits a significant positive correlation with summer rainfall over the NWISM region during 1951-2015. During positive (negative) SWJI years, an upper-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over Central Asia along with positive (negative) rainfall anomaly and low-level easterly (westerly) anomalies were observed over the NWISM region. The upper-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly was accompanied by the descending (ascending) motion and warm (cold) tropospheric temperature anomalies. The anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly increased (decreased) the land-ocean thermal contrast by warm (cold) air advection and modified the local meridional circulation. Interannual variability of rainfall over the NWISM region is associated with the meridional position and intensity of the jet that manifest in both upper- and low-level circulation anomalies. Further analysis showed that the interannual variability of SWJI is correlated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). During the positive phase of AO, an upper-level anticyclonic anomaly appeared over Central Asia and favored convection over the NWISM region.

How to cite: Sadaf, N., Lin, Y., and Dong, W.: Relationship between the Central Asian Subtropical Westerly and Northwest Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1630, 2022.

EGU22-1796 | Presentations | AS1.8

Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation 

Daniel Skinner, Adrian Matthews, and David Stevens

It is known that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) excites a response in the behaviour of many extratropical weather regimes at lag times of one to two weeks, acting as a key predictor in weather forecasting. Less well understood, however, is the robustness of these responses over long time scales. We begin by taking a statistical approach to assess the boreal winter response of a selection of key extratropical systems (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North American (PNA) pattern) to the MJO, over two non-overlapping time periods (1974-1997 and 1997-2019). It is shown that there is significant change in both the magnitude and structure of the extratropical response signal, as a function of lag, between the two periods.

This is followed by a similar analysis applied to the 1100 year pre-industrial control run of the UKESM-1-0 coupled climate model. By breaking this period into separate 20 year segments and comparing the extratropical responses to the MJO in each segment, we show that although there is a predictable mean signal, it is overwhelmed by the internal variability in the system. Repeating this methodology with segments between 10 and 40 years in length allows us to assess sampling errors and identify the key timescales for the variability. A similar mean signal is seen with every segment length, justifying the current use of the MJO as a predictor in the extratropics, although the variability in segments of 30 and 40 years (common time periods used in many historical analyses) casts doubt on the reliability of these predictors for the future.

Recent process based analysis has shown that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can act to modulate the Rossby wave source associated with the MJO. We investigate this using our statistical approach to assess the impact of ENSO on the MJO teleconnection patterns. In addition to this, we consider lower-frequency modes, for example Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). By compositing the extratropical response to the MJO over positive and negative phases of each of these modes, we see the individual impact of each low-frequency on the MJO teleconnections. Our work suggests updating the current MJO-extratropical predictors to include consideration of the decadal atmospheric and oceanic basic state.

How to cite: Skinner, D., Matthews, A., and Stevens, D.: Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1796, 2022.

EGU22-2824 | Presentations | AS1.8

South Atlantic Convergence Zone as Rossby Wave Source During Strong El Niño 

Hugo Braga and Tercio Ambrizzi

The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which extends from the Amazon to the southwestern South Atlantic, is one of the major precipitation systems in South America and has an important socioeconomic impact for Brazil. This study suggests the possibility of SACZ to act as a Rossby wave source using numerical simulations from a simple baroclinic model under strong El Niño basic state. Sixteen days after the perturbation, it is possible to observe wave propagation inside the subtropical latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The simulation is performed during the strong El Niño in 2015/16 austral summer, which has a intense westerly zonal flow and stationary wavenumbers 6-10 in the equatorial Atlantic region. The Rossby wave starts in the southeast Brazil, crosses the Atlantic Ocean and, embedded in the subtropical jet of the north hemisphere, extends to the subtropical latitudes over the African and Asian continents. According to the present analyses, SACZ may sometimes act as interhemispheric Rossby wave source, enabling a connection between South America and subtropical latitudes in north hemisphere over 16 days, providing there is westerly flow that allows wave propagation over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean.

How to cite: Braga, H. and Ambrizzi, T.: South Atlantic Convergence Zone as Rossby Wave Source During Strong El Niño, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2824, 2022.

EGU22-3876 | Presentations | AS1.8

Unprecedented Expansion of the Azores High due to Anthropogenic Climate Change 

Caroline Ummenhofer, Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay, Diana Thatcher, Alan Wanamaker, Rhawn Denniston, Yemane Asmerom, and Victor Polyak

The Azores High is a subtropical high-pressure ridge in the North Atlantic surrounded by anticyclonic winds that steer rain-bearing weather systems. The size and intensity of the Azores High modulate the oceanic moisture transport to Europe thereby affecting hydroclimate across western Europe, especially during wintertime. While changes in the North Atlantic storm track have been linked to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we focus on North Atlantic variability with a subtropical perspective by focusing on the Azores High independently of the Icelandic Low. The subtropical perspective provides a direct understanding of regional climate variability in the western Mediterranean and reveals dramatic changes to North Atlantic climate throughout the past century and can provide insight into the impact of future warming on the dynamics of the Azores High and associated hydroclimate. Here we show that winters with an extremely large Azores High are significantly more common in the industrial era (since 1850 CE) than in preindustrial times, resulting in anomalously dry conditions across the western Mediterranean, including the Iberian Peninsula. Climate model simulations of the past millennium indicate that the industrial-era expansion of the Azores High is unprecedented throughout the last millennium (since 850 CE), consistent with proxy evidence from Portugal. Azores High expansion emerges after the end of the Little Ice Age and strengthens into the 20th century consistent with anthropogenically-driven warming.

How to cite: Ummenhofer, C., Cresswell-Clay, N., Thatcher, D., Wanamaker, A., Denniston, R., Asmerom, Y., and Polyak, V.: Unprecedented Expansion of the Azores High due to Anthropogenic Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3876, 2022.

EGU22-4681 | Presentations | AS1.8

Understanding atmospheric differences in the water vapor transport for the Atacama and Namib deserts 

José Vicencio, Christoph Böhm, Ulrich Löhnert, and Susanne Crewell

The Atacama and Namib Deserts are one of the driest places in the world. They are both located west coast of their respective continents (18-28ºS), under the effects of the east margin of the subtropical anticyclones, strong subsidence and cold ocean currents. However, they also differ in terms of topography, precipitation, and humidity, being the Atacama much higher and drier than the Namib. Our understanding of how water vapor is brought to these regions and interacts with the different local circulations and topography is still limited. The objective of this study is to investigate similarities and differences of the spatio-temporal variability of water vapor between both deserts in order to assess the impact of the distinctive local factors. To this end, we use state-of-the-art satellite observations and reanalysis for a long-term perspective on total column water vapor (TCWV) as well as on the vertical distribution of humidity, temperature and on cloud structure. The analysis is aided by a one-year measurement campaign at Iquique airport (22ºS).

We found a marked seasonal cycle in the total column water vapor (TCWV) in both offshore deserts areas. While both deserts share a similar timing of the annual TCWV peak between January and March, the values of the maxima differ. The Namib surpasses the Atacama by 30%. Our analysis suggests that at least two factors contribute to the common summer maxima of the TCWV. First, warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the west coasts produce a moistening of the marine boundary layer (MBL). Second, as a consequence of the southward displacement of the subtropical anticyclones, weaker southerly winds decrease the dry advection in the MBL. The excess of humidity in the Namib is associated with a strong moisture advection feature observed in the lower part of the free-troposphere (900-750 hPa). The easterlies also transport clouds and precipitation. In the Atacama, the presence of the Andes cordillera blocks most of the potential exchange of humidity with the continent, resulting in the Pacific Ocean being the main source of moisture.

While the respective driest period presents similar TCWV amounts (~12 Kg/m2) for both deserts, it is surprising to find that it occurs later in the Atacama (spring season) than in the Namib (winter). Potential causes for this shift, such as a stronger dependence of TCWV on the SST for the Atacama, are investigated and discussed.

Furthermore, we identified a recurring atmospheric feature for the summer which exhibits a strong northerly humidity advection above the MBL. This structure is only observed in the Atacama Desert and has not been described in the literature. However, it could be a major source of humidity for the inland region in Atacama.

How to cite: Vicencio, J., Böhm, C., Löhnert, U., and Crewell, S.: Understanding atmospheric differences in the water vapor transport for the Atacama and Namib deserts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4681, 2022.

EGU22-8777 | Presentations | AS1.8

The role of Rossby wave breaking for annual and extreme precipitation in (semi)arid regions 

Andries Jan De Vries, Moshe Armon, Klaus Klingmüller, and Raphael Portmann

Precipitation can have large dual societal impacts in regions with a dry climate. On the one hand, extreme precipitation can induce catastrophic floods, and on the other hand, replenish scarce fresh water resources. In contrast to wet extratropical regions, the atmospheric processes that lead to precipitation formation in the dry subtropics are often overlooked by the scientific community. In this study we address the role of Rossby wave breaking for annual and extreme precipitation in (semi)arid regions. To this end, we quantify the contribution of Rossby wave breaking to extreme precipitation days and annual precipitation amounts in regions with different degrees of aridity. Rossby wave breaking is represented by potential vorticity (PV) streamers and cutoffs on isentropic surfaces using ERA-Interim reanalysis data, while precipitation is used from the global precipitation measurement (GPM) integrated multi-satellite retrieval product IMERG for the period of 2001-2018. We show that the relevance of Rossby wave breaking for precipitation increases from humid to hyper arid regions. More specifically, equatorward breaking Rossby waves contribute to a large fraction of annual and extreme precipitation in regions on the pole-westward flanks of world’s most arid regions where most precipitation occurs in the cool season. In contrast, precipitation in the equator-eastward parts of these arid regions has a negative association with Rossby wave breaking, implying that the tropical forcing governs the precipitation formation which occurs in these regions predominantly in the warm season. The results suggest that breaking Rossby waves are of key importance for precipitation in (semi)arid regions that undergo a drying in a warming climate, underlining the need to better understand the response of wave breaking to global warming.

How to cite: De Vries, A. J., Armon, M., Klingmüller, K., and Portmann, R.: The role of Rossby wave breaking for annual and extreme precipitation in (semi)arid regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8777, 2022.

EGU22-10816 | Presentations | AS1.8

Extreme subtropical precipitation in Australia: reasons for decline  

Irina Rudeva, Chiara Holgate, Acacia Pepler, Roseanna McKay, and Pandora Hope

A long-term reduction in southern Australian rainfall has been a focus of many studies. In south-eastern Australia it has been shown that after the Millennium Drought (1997 – 2009), the average precipitation has not recovered to the pre-drought values. Our analysis reveals a decline not only in the average precipitation but also in daily extreme rainfall amounts in the cold season. This study explores the physical processes leading to changes in extreme rainfall.  

High rainfall extremes are related, on the one hand, to a certain combination of weather systems at various height levels through the troposphere and, on the other hand, to moisture availability. We first identify which synoptic conditions lead to extreme rainfall events in south-eastern Australia and backtrack their development for a few days. Australia is believed to be affected by Rossby waves (RWs) propagating from the tropics. However, we show that extreme events in the southern part of the country are associated with breaking synoptic RWs propagating from the extratropical Indian Ocean. Interestingly, we find that the frequency of cut-off lows, that form following the breaking of RWs, have not declined over the recent decades.  This fact highlights that not all cut-off lows necessarily lead to extreme rainfall. We find that the strongest events occur in the presence of a Tasman High pressure system at the surface and a vertically developed low-pressure system to the west of it. We show that, despite little change in the frequency of cut-off lows in the upper troposphere, vertically developed lows have become less frequent after 1997 and when they occur, a larger moisture influxis required to produce an intense rainfall event. 

How to cite: Rudeva, I., Holgate, C., Pepler, A., McKay, R., and Hope, P.: Extreme subtropical precipitation in Australia: reasons for decline , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10816, 2022.

EGU22-12010 | Presentations | AS1.8

Predictability of inter-annual variability in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics 

Francois Engelbrecht and Thando Ndarana

Seasonal prediction is generally skillful over the subtropical landmasses of the Southern Hemisphere during summer seasons with strong ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) forcing. Skill is substantially reduced, however, during summer seasons that are ENSO neutral. Over southern Africa, forecast skill is also comparatively less for the spring and autumn seasons, and only marginally exists for winter. This seasonal cycle in predictive skill and the strong dependence of skill on ENSO forcing raise questions about the limits of predictability in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Here we explore these potential limits using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. These simulations are part of the larger Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), and are constructed using global atmospheric models forced at their lower boundaries with historical sea-surface temperature and sea-ice reconstructions. Radiative forcing is in the form of historical greenhouse gas and ozone concentrations, as well as aerosol emissions, for the period 1979-2014 (the same historical forcings are used in ScenarioMIP of CMIP6). AMIP simulations may be regarded as providing an upper boundary of seasonal predictive skill, at least to the extent that atmospheric inter-annual variability is a response to inter-annual variations in lower-boundary and radiative forcing. AMIP simulations are initialized only once however, and don’t make use of updated initial conditions as in the case of operational seasonal forecasts. Also, although the lower boundary forcing in AMIP simulations may be regarded as ‘perfect’, important coupled processes that influence inter-annual variability may not be represented. Our focus here is on analyzing the skill of AMIP simulations in representing inter-annual atmospheric variability over the subtropical landmasses of the Southern Hemisphere, focusing on rainfall and low-level circulation. NOAA-CIRES-DOE reanalysis v3 and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data are used for verification. The first stage of analysis consist of constructing a multi-model ensemble of AMIP simulations, with each model contributing a single ensemble member. Such an ensemble isolates to some extent the predictability that may be derived purely from boundary forcing. In the second stage of the analysis, we evaluate skill for those AMIP models for which initial-condition based ensembles have been derived, thereby incorporating the effects of model internal-variability on predictive skill. The resulting evaluations of skill confirm the results from operational seasonal forecasting, namely that a pronounced seasonal cycle in predictive skill exists over the Southern Hemisphere continents in the subtropics, with peak skill in summer in association with ENSO forcing. However, in spring and autumn and particularly in winter, circulation patterns of lower predictability originating from the Southern Ocean impact on atmospheric variability over the subtropical landmasses. Since these circulation patterns seem to be relatively unconstrained by lower boundary and atmospheric radiative forcing, it implies that predictability in the subtropics may be constrained in winter and the transition seasons by the relatively less predictable higher-latitude circulation regimes of the Southern Hemisphere.

How to cite: Engelbrecht, F. and Ndarana, T.: Predictability of inter-annual variability in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12010, 2022.

EGU22-12085 | Presentations | AS1.8

A global climatology of the kinematical skeletons organising subtropical and tropical convergence zones 

Gabriel Martins Palma Perez, Pier Luigi Vidale, Helen Dacre, and Jorge Garcia-Franco

Large-scale mixing in the atmosphere redistributes moisture as organised bands or filaments. In some tropical and subtropical monsoon regions, a substantial part of rainfall happens under moisture and cloud bands commonly referred to as convergence zones. Recent regional studies have shown that such large-scale filaments or bands of moisture and rainfall form along or in the neighborhood of mixing features known as attracting ``Lagrangian Coherent Structure'' (LCSs) - material skeletons associated with strong attraction of air parcels. However, there are still no global climatologies to support more general conclusions about the spatiotemporal relationships between mixing and precipitation and the impact of large-scale mixing on monsoons. In this study, we investigate how mixing features determine the subseasonal and seasonal rainfall variability in tropical and subtropical regions around the globe. We characterise mixing by computing the Finite-time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE), a measure of Lagrangian deformation among neighbouring parcels, on ERA5 reanalysis data between 1980 and 2009. Attracting LCSs are identified as ridges of the FLTE. We also employ diagnostic Eulerian variables such as mean sea level pressure and mass meridional streamfunction to associate mixing with general circulation features. On the seasonal scale, we show that the strength of mixing and the frequency of LCSs modulates rainfall under the African, American and Asian convergence zones and the ITCZ. On the subseasonal scale, we focus on the influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation and the North Atlantic oscillation on the mixing regime of the Atlantic and East Pacific; we show how these oscillations control horizontal mixing as to suppress or enhance precipitation variability over the American monsoons. This first long-term global climatology of mixing and LCSs quantifies the often overlooked role of Lagrangian kinematics on the hydrological cycle and provides a powerful process-based diagnostic to investigate mechanisms of rainfall variability that does not require region-specific considerations.

How to cite: Martins Palma Perez, G., Vidale, P. L., Dacre, H., and Garcia-Franco, J.: A global climatology of the kinematical skeletons organising subtropical and tropical convergence zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12085, 2022.

EGU22-12333 | Presentations | AS1.8

The climate of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Nile river basin 2500 years before present: a fully forced paleo regional climate simulation with COSMO-CLM 

Mingyue Zhang, Eva Hartmann, Elena Xoplaki, Sebastian Wagner, and Muralidhar Adakudlu

How did climatic and environmental variability and stress affect past societies in an area of increasing relevance for contemporary planning and policy concerns? The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Nile river basin (Nile) bear a long history of human social dynamics, making it a suitable area for exploring potential interactions between climate variability, extreme events, environmental changes and society over a variety of time scales. The areas contain abundant natural and human-historical archives that preserve information on the climate conditions and impacts on humans and ecosystems covering the past centuries to millennia. So far, the links between climate and societies are examined mainly from the proxy records or the derived paleoclimatic reconstruction perspectives, without addressing the detail of the processes and underlying dynamics that offer the regional climate model simulations. In order to improve our understanding of past climate in the EM and Nile at the regional scale, we developed a spatially high resolved fully-forced paleoclimate version of the COSMO-CLM running over the past 2500 years. All forcings used for the driving ESM, namely volcanic (stratospheric aerosol optical depth), orbital (eccentricity, obliquity, precession), solar (irradiance), land-use and greenhouse-gas changes are implemented to COSMO 5.0-clm16 (see Hartmann et al. for more details). As a starting point for exploring the relationship between climate and society over the last 2500 years, we compared the mean climate conditions (2m temperature and precipitation) of two periods that are 2400 years apart, namely BCE 400-362 and 1980-2018 CE. Overall, the results show that summer temperatures differ by up to 3 degrees between the two periods. In particular, over the tropics, the temperature differences are largest. Precipitation changes vary within the study area and the climate regimes covered. We will further analyze the dynamics and climate variability of the area over the two periods to explore more details of regional and local climate change.

How to cite: Zhang, M., Hartmann, E., Xoplaki, E., Wagner, S., and Adakudlu, M.: The climate of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Nile river basin 2500 years before present: a fully forced paleo regional climate simulation with COSMO-CLM, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12333, 2022.

EGU22-250 | Presentations | GM7.3

Timing of Glacier Retreat on Mt. Davraz by Cosmogenic Chlorine-36 in the Western Turkey 

Onur Altinay, Mehmet Akif Sarıkaya, Attila Çiner, Cengiz Yıldırım, Manja Žebre, and Uroš Stepišnik

The Taurus Mountain Range extends parallel to the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. It hosts lofty mountains (>3000 m above sea level, a.s.l.) carved by glaciers in the Late Pleistocene. Despite the recent studies in Anatolia, Mt. Davraz (2635 m a.s.l.) has not been studied in detail and its glacial chronology was lacking. This study presents our first findings of the glacial history, origin and geochronology of Mt. Davraz, which is located SW of Eğirdir Lake (915 m a.s.l.), 100 km north of Antalya city. Tectonics, karstification, glaciation, and periglaciation have led a distinctive geomorphology of the area. The main landscape of the area is predominantly shaped by paleoglaciers. Cirques are the dominant glacial erosional landforms, and most of them were developed on the northern slopes of Mt. Davraz. Based on the topographical limitations, cirque paleoglaciers could not to transformed into valley glaciers. Although it is one of the lowest mountains in the Taurus Mountain Range, it has a large hummocky field with an area of about 3 km2 on the northern slope. It was developed by a paleo-ice cap. There is also a smaller hummocky field deformed by a rock glacier advancements on the E-NE slopes of the mountain. In order to understand the timing of paleoglaciations, we obtained 6 cosmogenic 36Cl surface exposure ages from the moraine boulders on hummocky field. Based on the preliminary results, Mt. Davraz hummocky field yielded sequential retreat history; the eastern hummocky field deposited their moraines at 21.7 ± 1.5 ka ago, while the western hummocky field at 17.7 ± 1.2 ka ago. Our results show that the glaciers started to retreat by the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and continued to the earlier stages of Late-glacial.

This work was supported by TÜBİTAK 118Y052 and 118C329 projects.

 

How to cite: Altinay, O., Sarıkaya, M. A., Çiner, A., Yıldırım, C., Žebre, M., and Stepišnik, U.: Timing of Glacier Retreat on Mt. Davraz by Cosmogenic Chlorine-36 in the Western Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-250, 2022.

The investigation of Holocene glacier chronologies has been recognised as a key element of research on mountain glaciations in the light of current global change. They can be utilised as high-resolution palaeoclimatic archives for the immediate and more distant geological past. During the past few decades considerable progress has been achieved, in particular due to substantial improvements of the ability to accurately date glacial landforms such as terminal moraines essential for reconstructing past glacier margins and subsequent analysis of glacier advance/retreat periods. The Southern Alps of New Zealand are among the few suitable regions for the investigation of Holocene glacier chronologies in the mid-latitudinal Southern Hemisphere.

Since early studies of Holocene glacier chronologies in the mid-20th century, mapping of the investigated glacier forelands has been an integrated part of almost all scientific approaches regardless of the individual dating methods applied. These mapping attempts serve the identification and positioning of certain glacial or glaciofluvial landforms and allow the reconstruction of former glacier margins. They frequently also provide information on the location of sample sites selected for subsequent dating. If detailed geomorphological mapping schemes are in use, such maps additionally support the interpretation of any chronological data by identifying the genetic origin of any landform investigated. This enables the latter to be causally related to different dynamic stages of the glacier. Additionally, such maps may highlight potential uncertainties such as postdepositional disturbance or unclear morphodynamic connections between landforms and the glacier.

Reviewing recent publications it seems, however, that some appraisal of such detailed geomorphological mapping is often traded-off against the impressive progress with up-to-date dating techniques and high-resolution digital elevation models or satellite/aerial imagery. Unfortunately, the latter do neither qualify as geomorphological maps per se nor fully serve the abovementioned purpose. The widespread applied common GIS software has, furthermore, limitations with respect to its graphic capabilities and unintentionally entails negligence of established and well-suited signatures or geomorphological mapping schemes.

A detailed geomorphological map of the glacier foreland of Mueller Glacier, Southern Alps/New Zealand will be presented. It follows an established geomorphological mapping scheme ("GMK 25") that has been adequately modified to fit both purpose and selected scale. Despite several glacier chronological studies have been conducted on this glacier foreland and the site is considered a regional 'key site', this map constitutes the first of its kind. The detailed geomorphological map is utilised to assess discrepancies among existing chronologies by reviewing the morphometric properties and genetic origin of those landforms that have been dated. It reveals that potential postdepositional modification of some landforms investigated had not been appropriately considered with certain previous studies. As a result, the evidence for some glacier advances needs to be classified as 'weak'.  

Summarising, detailed geomorphological mapping is still essential for the study of Holocene glacier chronologies and should not lose its prominent position - or even disappear.

How to cite: Winkler, S.: Potential of detailed geomorphological mapping for the study of Holocene glacier chronologies: Mueller Glacier, Southern Alps/New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1502, 2022.

EGU22-1698 | Presentations | GM7.3

Maximum glacier extent of the Penultimate Glacial Cycle in the Upper Garonne Basin (Pyrenees): new chronological evidence 

Marcelo Fernandes, Marc Oliva, Gonçalo Vieira, David Palacios, José Maria Fernández-Fernández, Magali Delmas, Julia García-Oteyza, Irene Schimmelpfennig, Josep Ventura, and Aster Team

The Upper Garonne Basin constituted the longest glacier of the Pyrenean ice field during the Late Pleistocene. From the peaks of the axial Pyrenees that exceed 2,800-3,000 m, the Garonne palaeoglacier flowed along ~80 km northwards during the major glacial advances reaching only 420-440 m. This palaeoglacier reached the Pyrenean foreland, at the Loures-Barouse-Barbazan basin (LBBB) where it formed a terminal moraine complex that is examined in this work. We have constrained the timing of the maximum glacial extent as well as the onset of the deglaciation from the end of the Last Glacial Cycle (LGC) based on the geomorphological observations and a 12-sample dataset of 10Be Cosmic-Ray Exposure (CRE) ages. There are two moraine systems at the LBBB, where the first is composed of weathered ridges at the outermost part of the basin and the second encompasses well-preserved ridges stretching across the innermost part of the basin. Chronological data shows that the external moraines were abandoned by the ice at the end of the Penultimate Glacial Cycle (PGC) and the onset of the Eemian Interglacial, at ~129 ka. The few existing reliable boulders to date in the internal moraine showed inconsistent ages as they were probably affected by post-glacial processes and therefore, this work adds no evidence of subsequent glacial advances or standstills during the LGC in the LBBB. However, the terminal basin was already deglaciated during the global Last Glacial Maximum (GLGM) at 24-21 ka, as revealed by exposure ages from polished surfaces at the confluence of the Garonne-la Pique valleys, 13 km south of the entrance of the LBBB. This study introduces the first solid CRE database in the Pyrenees for the glacial advance that occurred during the PGC and provides also new evidence from the GLGM when the Garonne palaeoglacier had already significantly shrunk.

How to cite: Fernandes, M., Oliva, M., Vieira, G., Palacios, D., Fernández-Fernández, J. M., Delmas, M., García-Oteyza, J., Schimmelpfennig, I., Ventura, J., and Team, A.: Maximum glacier extent of the Penultimate Glacial Cycle in the Upper Garonne Basin (Pyrenees): new chronological evidence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1698, 2022.

EGU22-2054 | Presentations | GM7.3

Simulating the surface mass balance at the Monte Sarmiento Massif, Cordillera Darwin, Chile 

Franziska Temme, David Farías-Barahona, Thorsten Seehaus, Tobias Sauter, Ricardo Jaña, Jorge Arigony-Neto, Inti Gonzalez, Christoph Schneider, and Johannes Fürst

Together with the Northern and the Southern Patagonian Icefield, the Cordillera Darwin Icefield (CDI) in Tierra del Fuego experienced strong ice loss during the last decades. In some areas the observed glacier retreat contrasts with findings of recent surface mass balance studies, which implies that the observed losses are partly caused by dynamic adjustments. However, the difficult accessibility of Patagonian glaciers and the harsh conditions result in scarce observational data of glacier mass balances, especially for the CDI. In the westernmost region of the CDI, Monte Sarmiento is located. It hosts an 83 km2 icefield, with Schiaparelli Glacier being the largest glacier, terminating in a proglacial lake.

We focus on reproducing the local meteorological conditions using statistical downscaling of atmospheric reanalysis data to the study site as well as a linear model of orographic precipitation. Subsequently, we concentrate on a best representation of the surface mass balance (SMB) conditions on the local glaciers. For this purpose, we apply four melt models of different complexity: i) a positive degree-day model, ii) a simplified energy balance model using potential insolation, iii) a simplified energy balance model using the actual insolation (accounting for cloud cover, shading effects and diffuse radiation) and iv) a fully-fledged surface energy balance model. For the latter, we rely on the “COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass balance model in PYthon” (COSIPY). These models are calibrated on Schiaparelli Glacier (24.3 km2), which is the largest and best-studied glacier of the Monte Sarmiento Massif. Observational records comprise in-situ stake, thickness and meteorological measurements as well as remotely sensed elevation changes and flow velocities. After the melt model calibration, we apply them to other adjacent glacier basins and assess their performances against geodetic mass changes. This way, we want to answer the question if it is feasible to apply SMB models, calibrated for one single glacier, to surrounding glaciated areas under these unique climatic conditions. If a single-site calibration showed poor transferability properties, further remotely sensed observables will be considered in the calibration. This way we also hope to answer the question, which melt model can best reproduce the spatial variability in remotely sensed specific mass balances over a larger region.

How to cite: Temme, F., Farías-Barahona, D., Seehaus, T., Sauter, T., Jaña, R., Arigony-Neto, J., Gonzalez, I., Schneider, C., and Fürst, J.: Simulating the surface mass balance at the Monte Sarmiento Massif, Cordillera Darwin, Chile, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2054, 2022.

EGU22-2237 | Presentations | GM7.3 | Highlight

Multidecadal Delay Between Deglaciation and Formation of a Proglacial Lake Sediment Record 

Loic Piret, Sebastien bertrand, and Fernando Torrejón

Proglacial lake sediments are widely recognised as accurate and high-resolution archives of climate and glacier variability. Sediments deposited in proglacial lakes are frequently varved, which offers the possibility to generate precisely-dated records, and their basal ages are often used to constrain deglaciation histories. It is often assumed that lake sedimentation starts immediately after deglaciation. With this in mind, we studied the onset of lake sedimentation in a recently deglaciated lake (Calluqueo Lake, Chilean Patagonia) to investigate the possible delay between proglacial lake formation and establishment of a continuous sediment record. Calluqueo Lake is a 3.5 km long lake composed of a large 220 m deep proximal basin, separated from a smaller 50 m deep distal basin by a 40 m deep sill. The lake is bordered by steep lateral moraines that contain large boulders. Aerial images and historical data show that Calluqueo Glacier entirely covered the lake basin until 1941. Since then, it rapidly receded until it became land-based in 1985. Side Scan sonar images and grab sampling shows that the sediment cover is limited to the small distal basin, which was entirely deglaciated by 1978. By comparison, no sediment was found in the deepest proximal basin although it has been ice free for at least three decades. Varve counting of sediments deposited in the distal basin shows that the stratigraphic record starts in 1996 ± 4 CE, i.e., that the first 20 – 50 years of the glacier’s retreat are not represented in the sediments of Calluqueo Lake. We hypothesize that the fine-grained sediments that are discharged into the lake immediately after its formation first start accumulating between the large boulders that compose the ablation moraine on the lake floor. The continuous stratigraphic record only starts forming after the coarse moraine deposits are buried under fine-grained particles. Our results have important implications for the use of proglacial lake sediments in paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental research. They suggest that proglacial lake sediment records lack the first 20 – 50 years of sedimentation. Although this delay may be negligible for reconstructions of deglaciation histories based on basal radiocarbon ages, it becomes significant for the use of lake sediment records from recently deglaciated environments.

How to cite: Piret, L., bertrand, S., and Torrejón, F.: Multidecadal Delay Between Deglaciation and Formation of a Proglacial Lake Sediment Record, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2237, 2022.

EGU22-2466 | Presentations | GM7.3

Postglacial environment reconstruction of the northwestern USA from the lacustrine record: Bells Lake, northern Idaho 

Avinesh Kumar, Daniel Gavin, and Nicolas Waldmann

Lakes acts as the ubiquitous substitutes of oceans by effectively imprinting the signatures of varying environments in their sediments. A multiproxy sedimentary record from Bells Lake (N Idaho, USA) has been investigated to ascribe the postglacial paleoenvironment of NW USA. It is a 5 m deep, 6.3 ha lateral lake situated on the floodplain of the St. Joe River. It receives its sedimentary input from the central part of the Rocky Mountains. Therefore, perfectly situated for archiving environmental variability related to alpine glacial variability and precipitation fluctuations in relation with millennial-scale latitudinal migrations of the Northern Hemisphere Westerlies (NHW) since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We recovered a continuous 15 m core using a Livingstone corer at the centre of the lake for this study. The core stratigraphy consists of five major units ranging from black organic-rich clay towards the top and clayey sand-silt in the bottom units. The bottom of the core consists of stiff clayey sediments that prevented further penetration and were dated by radiocarbon to 15.2 ka. Therefore, it appears to represent sediments that shortly post-date the last Missoula Flood event. The whole record was framed by seven radiocarbon dates and three tephra isochrons. The record shows that during the early Holocene, an increase in detrital geochemical proxies (Al, K, Fe, and Ti) and a high sedimentation rate (3.72 mm/yr) point towards high terrestrial input in a warm and humid environment, probably inducing high productivity in the lake. These changes likely resulted from intensified weathering conditions and high surface runoff with the latitudinal migration of the NHW, which induced diminishing conditions of the continental alpine glaciers in the Rockies. The Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) is clearly recorded by several parameters, including paleo-redox proxies (e.g., Mn/Fe), weathering indices (Chemical Index of Alteration), Fe-S plot, a decrease in TOC, and an increase in clay content. This suggests oxic hypolimnion (due to lower lake levels or increased wind strength) and increased fine detrital input (possibly from glacial expansion). Occasional flooding might have been responsible for the deposition of fine sand layers at 11.6-11.2 ka. Following this episode, the 8.2 ka & 4.2 ka events of aridity were also well identified by the sudden drops in the detrital proxies and magnetic susceptibility values, probably pointing to reduced weathering conditions during a short return to a cold and arid phase; later was possibly due to the dramatic warming of North Pacific Ocean might be caused by increased solar irradiance or volcanism disrupting the SST gradient between tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean. A thick Mt. Mazama tephra (7.6 ka), a confounding event, is also capsuled in the record likely contributing to the rapid formation of long gun barrel levees that extended into Lake Coeur d'Alene (CDA). A major change in the limnological conditions appear to occur at 6.1 ka and is interpreted as the isolation of Bells Lake basin from the larger Lake CDA, currently occupying the lowlands in the west within the modern mean state Mediterranean type of climate system. 

How to cite: Kumar, A., Gavin, D., and Waldmann, N.: Postglacial environment reconstruction of the northwestern USA from the lacustrine record: Bells Lake, northern Idaho, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2466, 2022.

EGU22-2910 | Presentations | GM7.3

The glacial geomorphology of the Scărișoara Plateau, Godeanu Mountains, Southern Carpathians, Romania 

Cristina-Ioana Balaban, David H. Roberts, David J.A. Evans, and Stewart S.R. Jamieson

Reconstructing the extent, style, timing and drivers of past mountain glaciation is crucial in both understanding past atmospheric circulation and predicting future climate change. Unlike in high-elevation mountains situated in maritime and continental climates, less is known of past glaciation in mid-altitude mountains, located in transitional climates, such as the Southern Carpathians of Romania. Despite these mountains harbouring a rich glacial geomorphology, this has never been systematically mapped according to well-established morphological criteria, nor confidently related to former styles of glaciation. Therefore, filling this gap is important for not only accurately identifying glacial extents, but also for establishing past glaciation styles and relating them to past ice dynamics and climate. We aim to understand the extent and timing of past glaciation in the Godeanu Mountains, Southern Carpathians. We present a new geomorphological map of the area, highlighting landforms associated with glaciation of the Scărișoara plateau and surrounding valleys. Using both remote (orthophotographs and Google Earth) and field mapping techniques, we describe and interpret the origins of glacial erosional landforms (ice-moulded bedrock, ice-marginal meltwater channels), and of depositional discrete debris assemblages of likely glacial (moraines), periglacial (pronival ramparts, protalus lobes, rock glaciers) and paraglacial (rock slope failure) origins. We also hypothesize the relationship of these landforms with former styles of glaciation. The field study results aid the interpretation of the geomorphology in the wider mountain range. Once absolute chronological results have been produced, the mapping will be used as a spatial constraint for numerical ice-flow modelling in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM).

How to cite: Balaban, C.-I., Roberts, D. H., Evans, D. J. A., and Jamieson, S. S. R.: The glacial geomorphology of the Scărișoara Plateau, Godeanu Mountains, Southern Carpathians, Romania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2910, 2022.

EGU22-3235 | Presentations | GM7.3

Late Quaternary glacier-based climate reconstruction from the Southern Alps, New Zealand 

Levan Tielidze, Shaun Eaves, Kevin Norton, Andrew Mackintosh, and Alan Hidy

Geochronological dating of glacial landforms, such as terminal and lateral moraines, are useful for determining the extent and timing of past glaciation and for reconstructing the magnitude and rate of past climate changes. Here we report the first dataset of Late Quaternary glacial maximum extent and its deglaciation from the Ahuriri River valley, Southern Alps, New Zealand (44°23'54''S, 169°39'48''E) based on 66 beryllium-10 (10Be) surface-exposure ages from terminal-lateral moraine systems and glaciated bedrock surfaces situated at different sites of the valley. Our results show that the former Ahuriri Glacier reached its maximum extent 19.8±0.3 ka, which coincides with the global Last Glacial Maximum. By 16.7±0.3 ka, the glacier had retreat ~18 km up-valley and this deglaciation was accompanied by the formation of a shallow proglacial lake. Our surface-exposure chronology from the moraines situated upper right tributary of the Ahuriri River valley also indicates that other subsequent advance of the palaeo glacier culminated at 14.5±0.3 ka ago, while the next re-advance or still stand phases occurred at 13.6±0.3 ka. About 1000 yr later (12.6±0.2 ka), the former glacier built another prominent terminal-lateral moraine ridge in the lower section of the upper right tributary valley. In overall, our result supports the hypothesis that climate was ~5°C colder (ELA depression ~880 m) than present at 19.8±0.3 ka, while it was ~4.4°C colder (ELA depression ~770 m) at 16.7±0.3 ka. Furthermore, local air temperature was lower by 3.6°C (ELA depression ~630 m) during the 14.5-13.6 ka and by 2.0°C (ELA depression ~360 m) at 12.6 ka respectively relative to present. Our results clearly demonstrate the structure of last glacial termination in New Zealand such as strong glacier recession during this time-period in accordance of at least five glacier re advances or still stand phases. This new 10Be surface exposure dataset will help us in better understanding of past glacier-climate interactions in the Southern Alps and in the Southern Hemisphere in general.

How to cite: Tielidze, L., Eaves, S., Norton, K., Mackintosh, A., and Hidy, A.: Late Quaternary glacier-based climate reconstruction from the Southern Alps, New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3235, 2022.

EGU22-4623 | Presentations | GM7.3

Paleogeographic reconstruction of Segrino Lake area: Southern Alps, Northern Italy 

Laura Simoncelli, Alberto Bosino, Vít Vilímek, Jan Kropáček, and Michael Maerker

The origin of the Southern sub-Alpine lakes was intensively discussed in the past century. Morphological observations, combined with seismic reflection acquisitions provided the fluvio-glacial origin of them. However, the formation and the post-Messinian evolution of the smaller lakes between the two branches of the Como Lake, Southern Alps, Italy, was only marginally investigated so far. This area is regionally named Triangolo Lariano, and several authors hypothesised the post-Messinian evolution of Segrino Lake area connecting its formation with the initial Messinian incision followed by the morainic block during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The proposed study re-evaluates the origin of Segrino Lake as well as the lower Triangolo Lariano area, using morphological observation, orthophoto interpretation, detailed Terrain analysis on high-resolution DEM and finally, the interpretation and correlation of borehole stratigraphy. The results highlight a complex morphological evolution of the area up to the pre-Messinian times. In fact, considering the morphology and the geological characteristics of the bedrock as well as the morphometry of the area, fluvial and glacial phases were observed. Deep incised valleys linked with the Messinian Sea level change, and a complex drainage system are clearly detectable on the field and from detailed Terrain analysis. Finally, to reconstruct the paleogeography and order the chronology of the geological events that have occurred in the area, a set of borehole data were interpreted. These analyses allowed to observe an alternation of strata characterized by heterogeneous and interstratified deposits, that reflected a sequence of lacustrine, fluvial, glacial, lacustrine, and fluvial deposits. In fact, the careful evaluation of the stratigraphy highlights the presence of a pre-Messinian lacustrine phase in the area North of Segrino Lake. In addition, fluvial deposits, suspended valleys and paleo-meanders suggest a strong erosive phase dating back to the Messinian age. During this period, the Lambro River deeply incised into the bedrock forming the actual Segrino Valley. Subsequently, the glaciation phase remodelled the area, depositing erratic boulders and morainic material that caused changes in the drainage settings. In particular, the morainic barrier South of Segrino Lake is responsible for the formation of a new lake in the Segrino-Canzo area as well as in the lower part of the study area were the Pusiano and Alserio Lakes are located nowadays. In the following period the deglaciation and the new hydrological asset of the area led to a shrinking of Segrino-Canzo Lake, and finally a drainage inversion of Segrino Lake, with the outflow directed towards North, and the formation of an alluvial fan which isolated the actual Segrino Lake. Finally, the hypothesis already formulated in the past by some other authors, regarding the presence of a lake that he would fill the study area after the LGM, is therefore supported. New evidence due to the available borehole stratigraphy allowed us to recognize a new and more complex and highly heterogeneous evolution of the study area from Messinian time onwards.

How to cite: Simoncelli, L., Bosino, A., Vilímek, V., Kropáček, J., and Maerker, M.: Paleogeographic reconstruction of Segrino Lake area: Southern Alps, Northern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4623, 2022.

EGU22-4999 | Presentations | GM7.3

Late-glacial to Neoglacial evolution of glacier extent and surface mass balance in the Cordillera Blanca, Peruvian Andes 

Tancrède Leger, Andrew Hein, Daniel Goldberg, and Derek Fabel

Cordillera Blanca glaciers represent the greatest glacial freshwater reserve in tropical South America and have been shrinking substantially over recent decades, posing a threat to future water resources in the Peruvian Ancash region. A crucial step to better understand the evolution of these glaciers under changing conditions is to establish robust reconstructions of their past response to climate fluctuations. Such reconstructions are limited in the tropical Andes, which inhibits our understanding of the climatic drivers of tropical glacier length and surface mass balance changes. The relative importance of temperature versus precipitation rate changes on glacier length changes is therefore still debated in the region. Here, we present 42 cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from moraine boulder samples, establishing for the first time a comprehensive chronology for Late-glacial, Holocene and Neoglacial advances of four distinct Cordillera Blanca mountain glaciers. We use this chronology to constrain a series of moraine-matching numerical model-run simulations conducted for each dated glacier advance using a spatially-distributed ice-flow model coupled with a positive degree-day surface mass balance parameterisation. These simulations aim at modelling and estimating former three-dimensional glacier geometries, equilibrium line altitudes, surface mass balance properties and their evolution through time. This analysis also enables us to use glacier surface mass balance as a proxy for past atmospheric temperature and precipitation variations at the time of the reconstructed glacier advances. This new, multi-method glacier reconstruction enables, for the Cordillera Blanca: 1) novel glacio-geomorphological interpretations, 2) an improved understanding of glacier extent, surface mass balance and volume change during the Late-glacial, Holocene and Neoglacial phases of advance, and 3) new estimations of paleoclimate conditions required for the reconstructed glacier events to occur.   

How to cite: Leger, T., Hein, A., Goldberg, D., and Fabel, D.: Late-glacial to Neoglacial evolution of glacier extent and surface mass balance in the Cordillera Blanca, Peruvian Andes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4999, 2022.

EGU22-5052 | Presentations | GM7.3

Coincident glacier and lake evolution across New Zealand: Past, present, and future 

Jenna Sutherland, Jonathan Carrivick, Matthias Huss, Heather Purdie, Christopher Stringer, Michael Grimes, William James, and James Shulmesiter

Mountain glaciers are rapidly diminishing and causing widespread environmental and socio-economic concern. The stability of mountain glaciers is influenced by the expansion of proglacial landscapes and meltwater impounded as lakes within natural topographic depressions or ‘overdeepenings’. In particular, the relative sensitivity of mid-latitude glaciers to modern climate change makes them especially important to consider. One of the most striking features of South Island, New Zealand, is the sequence of glacial lakes that occupy mountain valleys along the Southern Alps. Our previous work has highlighted that the presence of these lakes is likely to have had an impact on ice-marginal dynamics of their adjacent glaciers, thereby influencing the rate of deglaciation on sub-millennial timescales. This emphasizes the need to incorporate proglacial lakes into palaeoglacier reconstructions and into analyses of future glacier evolution. In this new study we (i) document contemporary loss of glacier ice across the Southern Alps, (ii) analyse ice-marginal lake development since the 1980s, (iii) utilise modelled glacier ice thickness to suggest the position and size of future lakes, and (iv) employ a large-scale glacier evolution model to suggest the timing of future lake formation and future lake expansion rate. In recent decades, Southern Alps glaciers have fragmented both by separation of tributaries and by detachment of ablation zones. Glacier margins in contact with a proglacial lake have experienced the greatest terminus retreat. Our analysis indicates a positive relationship between mean glacier mass balance and rate of lake growth and with length of an ice-contact lake boundary. We project sustained and relatively homogenous glacier volume loss for east-draining basins but in contrast a heterogenous pattern of volume loss for west-draining basins. Our model results show that ice-marginal lakes will increase in number and combined size towards 2050 and then decrease to 2100 as glaciers disconnect from them. Overall, our findings should inform (i) glacier evolution models into which ice-marginal lake effects need incorporating, (ii) studies of rapid landscape evolution and especially of meltwater and sediment delivery, and (iii) considerations of future meltwater supply and water quality.

How to cite: Sutherland, J., Carrivick, J., Huss, M., Purdie, H., Stringer, C., Grimes, M., James, W., and Shulmesiter, J.: Coincident glacier and lake evolution across New Zealand: Past, present, and future, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5052, 2022.

EGU22-6505 | Presentations | GM7.3

Insight into glacier evolution, proglacial lake dynamics, and paleoclimate from Lago Argentino, Patagonia 

Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Emi Ito, Mark Shapley, Guido Brignone, Matias Romero, and Andrew D. Wickert

Proglacial lakes provide valuable records of paleoclimate, volcanism, and glaciation. We present results from spatially extensive coring of Lago Argentino, a 1500 km2 proglacial lake on the eastern margin of the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI). We recovered forty-seven sediment cores from water depths up to 600 m. Detailed analysis of this sediment reveals annual laminations – known as varves – which we use to build a high-resolution age-depth model for each core.

In this presentation, we discuss the insight gained into varve formation mechanisms, paleoclimate, and glacier change in the Lago Argentino basin of the Southern Patagonian Icefield. Firstly, we show that varves form by three distinct mechanisms across Lago Argentino (~west to east): a seasonal cycle in glacial sediment influx, a seasonal cycle in lake mixing, and a seasonal cycle in fluvial sediment influx. Second, we examine the evidence for recent glacier fluctuations across Lago Argentino. We find evidence that glaciers were locally larger early in the last millennium than during the Little Ice Age. Finally, we examine the periodicity of sediment mass accumulation rate and find dominant decadal to centennial periodicities (35, 80, 150 and 200 years). We relate periodicities in sediment accumulation to periodicities in known climatic drivers, specifically the Southern Annular Mode. These results provide new insight into multiannual glacial change and sedimentation dynamics in a complex glacio-lacustrine system and highlight the value of proglacial lake records for understanding present-day glacier change.

How to cite: Van Wyk de Vries, M., Ito, E., Shapley, M., Brignone, G., Romero, M., and Wickert, A. D.: Insight into glacier evolution, proglacial lake dynamics, and paleoclimate from Lago Argentino, Patagonia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6505, 2022.

EGU22-7124 | Presentations | GM7.3

Landscape evolution of the Sölk Valleys and adjacent regions from the last Interglacial to today (Niedere Tauern range, Austria) 

Gerit E.U. Griesmeier, Jürgen M. Reitner, and Daniel P. Le Heron

The Gröbminger Mitterberg, an isolated flat hill located within the Enns Valley, consists of fluvial, deltaic and lake bottom sediments on top of bedrock, which are covered by subglacial till. In comparison, the sedimentary succession in the Sölk Valleys, which drain into the Enns Valley, is more divers. The highest peaks reaching 2680 m a.s.l. and cirques are dominated by talus, relict rock glaciers and two groups of moraine ridges. Latero-frontal moraine ridges located higher than 1900 m a.s.l. are remarkable. Frequently, two or three ridges are located close to each other and have a morphologically fresh shape. Further downvalley, single laterao-frontal moraine ridges occur, which are often flattened and less prominent. They appear in different altitudes according to their catchment area. However, they do not reach the main valley floor. The slopes of the main valleys and secondary valleys are often covered by subglacial till and reworked slope deposit,s which are dominated by a silty-sandy matrix and angular to subrounded clasts. Additionally, many slopes have been affected by mass movements. At the valley mouth of secondary valleys, ice marginal sediments occur consisting of very rounded pebbles in a sandy matrix and in some areas, cross bedding can be observed. Slightly above the valley floor of the main valleys, gently sloping terrace bodies interfingering with truncated alluvial fans and slope sediments described above occur. These deposits are diamicts, which consist of sandy or silty matrix with rounded and angular clasts.

An interpretation of these findings suggests the following landscape evolution:

The sedimentological record of Gröbminger Mitterberg suggests aggradation of the Enns Valley floor to at least 850 m a.s.l. (200 m higher than today) prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). During the LGM, the area was covered by the Enns Glacier with tributary glaciers from the Sölk Valleys. The ice surface reached 1800 m a.s.l. in the northernmost part (in the Enns Valley), roughly 2100 m a.s.l. in the southernmost part at a transfluence pass (Sölkpass) and even higher altitudes in cirques. During that time, large areas were covered by basal till. With the breakdown of the ice mass and ice surface lowering at the onset of the phase of ice-decay, trunk glaciers and cirque glaciers got separated resulting in the formation of ice-marginal lakes. On the already ice-free slopes, reworking of the previously deposited sediment and mixing with talus started. Further, climate warming proceeded and ice retreat resulted in mass movements and rock falls. As soon as the valley floor was ice-free, aggradation started by large river systems accumulating sediment in the valley floor. This was followed by two separate cold stages, the Gschnitz Stadial (Heinrich Event 1, ~16-17 ka) and the Egesen Stadial (Younger Dryas, ~12-13 ka), where cirque glaciers developed in equilibrium with climate oscillations (up to three stabilisation phases recognised during Egesen Stadial). In the Holocene, climate warming led to river incision in the main valleys and resulted in today´s landscape.

How to cite: Griesmeier, G. E. U., Reitner, J. M., and Le Heron, D. P.: Landscape evolution of the Sölk Valleys and adjacent regions from the last Interglacial to today (Niedere Tauern range, Austria), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7124, 2022.

EGU22-7360 | Presentations | GM7.3

Late Pleistocene glacial advances, equilibrium-line altitude changes and paleoclimate in the Jakupica Mt. (North Macedonia) 

Zsófia Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger, Zoltán Kern, Marjan Temovski, Balázs Madarász, Ivica Milevski, Johannes Lachner, and Peter Steier

In the Jakupica Mt. (North Macedonia, Central Balkan Peninsula; ~41.7° N, ~21.4 E; maximum elevation: 2540 m asl) a large plateau glacier was reconstructed. The lowest mapped moraines in the northeastern valleys are at elevations of 1490-1720 m asl and suggest the former existence of glacier tongues of ~3 km length. The maximum ice extent and five deglaciation phases were reconstructed. The equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the most extended glacial phase is 2073+37/-25 m asl. The 10Be Cosmic Ray Exposure (CRE) age (n=8) of this phase was estimated at 19.3+1.7/-1.3 ka, conformable with the LGM similarly to the nearby Jablanica Mt [1]. CRE ages from the next moraine generation placed the first phase of deglaciation to 18.2+1.0/-3.0 ka (n=8). The samples from the moraine of the penultimate deglaciation phase (n=5) provided CRE ages with large scatter and biased towards old ages, which is probably the result of inherited cosmogenic nuclide concentrations within the rock [2, 3], as it was suggested in the cirques of the Retezat Mt. [4].

Glacio-climatological modelling was performed under constrains of geomorphological evidence in order to make paleoclimatological inferences. The degree-day model was used to calculate the amount of accumulation required to sustain the glaciological equilibrium assuming a certain temperature drop at the ELA for the most extended stage.

If the LGM mean annual temperature and the increased annual temperature range suggested by pollen-based paleoclimate reconstructions [5] are placed into the glaciological model the estimated annual total melt at the LGM ELA implies much wetter conditions compared to the current climate. This is in contrast with the regional LGM annual precipitation reconstructions of the same dataset, which suggests ~25% decrease in the Jakupica Mt. Alternatively, the model can be constrained with the current annual temperature range and the regional estimates of LGM temperature drop at 6-7 °C. This suggests 1.3 to 1.8 times more simulated precipitation than today.

These results support paleoclimate models, which predict increased precipitation in this region and suggest that in the Central Balkan region either the precipitation or the annual temperature amplitude (or both) are inaccurate in the pollen-based paleoclimate reconstruction database.

 

Funding: NKFIH FK124807; GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00009; RADIATE 19001688-ST.

 

 

[1] Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger et al. 2020. Geomorphology 351: 106985

[2] Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger et al. 2021. GRA, EGU21-4573

[3] Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger et al. 2021. vDEUQUA2021, Book of Abstracts, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5526214

[4] Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger et al. 2021. Geomorphology, 107719.

[5] Bartlein, et al. 2011. Clim. Dyn. 37, 775–802.

How to cite: Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger, Z., Kern, Z., Temovski, M., Madarász, B., Milevski, I., Lachner, J., and Steier, P.: Late Pleistocene glacial advances, equilibrium-line altitude changes and paleoclimate in the Jakupica Mt. (North Macedonia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7360, 2022.

EGU22-7499 | Presentations | GM7.3

New insights into the last glacial cycle in the south-eastern European Alps from the glacial geomorphological record of the Monte Cavallo (NE Italy) 

Lukas Rettig, Irka Hajdas, Giovanni Monegato, Paolo Mozzi, and Matteo Spagnolo

Recent studies have shown that during the last glacial cycle the extent, timing and style of glaciation was not uniform across the European Alps but influenced by local topographic or climatic factors. In the south-eastern part of the mountain range, for example, glaciers not only developed in the inner-Alpine sectors but also along the pre-Alpine chains, probably fuelled by high orographic precipitation in these regions. Despite their high climatic sensitivity, the evolution of these glaciers throughout the last glacial cycle is still not fully understood and more field data are needed to enable comparisons among different sites. To address this issue, we present new results from the Monte Cavallo Group (Venetian Prealps, NE-Italy), based on detailed geomorphological mapping, glacier reconstructions and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) modelling; then we compare our findings to other paleoglaciers that existed along the fringe of the southern Alps.

The oldest sediments in the Monte Cavallo Group are deposits of a small lake basin, rich in organic macrofossils such as branches and bark remains. These sediments likely date back to at least the earliest part of MIS 3, or potentially even previous interglacial periods. As climate deteriorated towards the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), glacier tongues advanced from the peak regions into the main valleys. While towards the west, some small tributaries merged with the large Piave glacier, most of the glacial system of the Monte Cavallo remained independent. Its maximum extent is marked by prominent lateral and frontal moraine ridges that allowed reconstructing the geometry and ELA of the glaciers during the LGM. Besides the valley glaciers, also mid-altitude plateaus were at least temporarily covered by ice, however these plateau glaciers probably quickly vanished after the LGM acme, due to their restricted elevation range. Glacial retreat in the valleys, on the other hand, was intermitted by phases of stagnancy or readvance, as indicated by smaller moraine ridges up-valley. Comparing these Late Glacial moraines with other regional records may reveal important patterns regarding the early stages of post-LGM deglaciation in the south-eastern Alps.

How to cite: Rettig, L., Hajdas, I., Monegato, G., Mozzi, P., and Spagnolo, M.: New insights into the last glacial cycle in the south-eastern European Alps from the glacial geomorphological record of the Monte Cavallo (NE Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7499, 2022.

EGU22-8595 | Presentations | GM7.3

Structural-controlled valley morphology of the largest Central Alpine Glacier 

Ferdinando Musso Piantelli, Sandro Truttmann, and Marco Herwegh

The susceptibility of catchment rocks to glacial erosion may control the evolution of valley morphology in high-relief mountain ranges such as the Alps. Non-uniform proneness to bedrock erosion may indeed localize knickpoints and overdeepenings characteristic of glacial valleys. Yet, little is known about the explicit influence of bedrock properties (i.e. lithology, hardness, and geological structures) on glacial erosion processes. In this study, we select the Great Aletsch Glacier (Swiss Alps) as a natural laboratory to document and investigate the relationship between bedrock properties and subglacial erosion mechanisms. The Great Aletsch Glacier with a length of more than 20km and an ice thickness of up to 800m is the largest glacier in Central Europe. The underlying bedrock consists of the crystalline basement units of the Aar massif (gneiss, granite, and granodiorite) and is dissected by a large number of steep faults and former ductile shear zones. Geological and remote sensing lineament mapping combined with 3D geological modelling allowed us to make a large-scale characterization of the lithologies and structures’ spatial frequency over the entire length of the glacier. Additionally, we performed field-based rock hardness analyses (Schmidt hammer) along the glacier’s bedrocks (intact rock and faulted/sheared domains) to testify for structure-controlled erosion behaviour. Obtained results demonstrate that: (i) the typology and distribution of faults and shear zones are not uniform over the entire length of the glacier; (ii) high-frequency structure domains correlate with overdeepenings and/or abrupt glacier flow deflection in the direction of the strike of the structures; (iii) low-frequency structure domains correlate to the absence of overdeepenings and a straight glacier trajectory. In terms of erosive resistance domains of intact rock masses show high hardness values for each of the investigated lithologies without substantial variability between the different basement rocks (rebound values ranging from 45 to 60 N/mm2). On the contrary, faulted or sheared domains show a significant drop in hardness value (rebound values ranging from 10 to 40 N/mm2). Based on these results we propose that, for the case of the Great Aletsch Glacier, differences in crystalline basement lithologies do not exert an important role in glacial erosion. We postulate instead that the non-uniform spatial distribution of geological structures imposes a major control on the development of the glacial valley. The substantially reduced bulk hardness within high-frequency structure domains renders indeed the bedrock to be more prone to efficient glacial erosion process at these sites (i.e. glacial quarrying) and therefore to the development of large-scale overdeepenings, local scouring, or changes in the glacier flow direction. By contrast, the more massive undeformed and therefore less erosive low-frequency structures domains coincide with sections with no knickpoints or overdeepenings. In times of global warming and glacial retreat, such structure-controlled bedrock incisions are prone for further enhanced surface weathering and gravitation-controlled erosion processes, such as rockfalls and landslides, providing sites of enhances natural hazard potential.

How to cite: Musso Piantelli, F., Truttmann, S., and Herwegh, M.: Structural-controlled valley morphology of the largest Central Alpine Glacier, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8595, 2022.

EGU22-9576 | Presentations | GM7.3 | Highlight

Projected increases in climate extremes and temperature-induced drought over the Peruvian Andes, 1980-2100 

Emily Potter, Catriona Fyffe, Andrew Orr, Duncan Quincey, Andrew N Ross, Sally Rangecroft, Katy Medina, Helen Burns, Alan Llacza, Gerardo Jacome, Robert Hellström, Joshua Castro, J Scott Hosking, Alejo Cochachin, Cornelia Klein, Edwin Loarte, and Francesca Pellicciotti

Precipitation, snow and ice melt from Andean river basins provide a crucial water source to mountain and downstream communities equally. Precipitation and temperature changes due to global climate change are likely to affect agriculture, hydropower generation and hazard risks, but are poorly constrained, especially in future projections.

Here we focus on two heavily glacierised regions of the Peruvian Andes, the Cordillera Blanca, and the Cordillera Vilcanota-Urubamba, to assess projected changes in extreme meteorological events and droughts. Previous work suggests increasing temperatures in both regions in the 21st century, with contrasting projections of precipitation trends. There has been little focus, however, on how extremes in precipitation and temperature might vary in the future. Having created a bias-corrected regional climate model from 1980-2018, we use empirical quantile mapping to statistically downscale 30 CMIP5 models. This ensemble is analysed to determine future changes in climate extremes.  

Both minimum and maximum daily temperatures are projected to increase in the from 2018 to 2100. This leads to a large reduction in the number of frost days in both regions, and suggests that under a high-emissions scenario, almost every day in the late 21st century will be in the 90th percentile of temperatures experienced during 1980-2018. The number of wet and dry days is not projected to change, but precipitation falling on very wet days (in the 95th percentile of the 1980-2018 period) is projected to increase significantly.

Lastly, we consider changes in future meteorological droughts using the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) which considers potential evapotranspiration, as well as precipitation. We estimate potential evapotranspiration from temperature projections, using the Hargreaves method. Despite projected precipitation increases, temperature increases leading to an increase in evaporation may be large enough to increase meteorological droughts in the future, with the total number of drought months projected to almost double under high emission scenarios by the end of the 21st century. In a region that already experiences water stress and hazards, these changes to both extreme rainfall and drought could have a significant impact for communities in the Peruvian Andes, and for the downstream urban areas and industry that rely on mountain river flow.

 

How to cite: Potter, E., Fyffe, C., Orr, A., Quincey, D., Ross, A. N., Rangecroft, S., Medina, K., Burns, H., Llacza, A., Jacome, G., Hellström, R., Castro, J., Hosking, J. S., Cochachin, A., Klein, C., Loarte, E., and Pellicciotti, F.: Projected increases in climate extremes and temperature-induced drought over the Peruvian Andes, 1980-2100, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9576, 2022.

EGU22-9602 | Presentations | GM7.3

Climate transitions during the Late Glacial and the Early Holocene reconstructed from moraine records in the Austrian Alps 

Sandra M. Braumann, Joerg M. Schaefer, Stephanie Neuhuber, and Markus Fiebig

Glaciers provide an excellent natural laboratory for reconstructing the climate of the past as they respond sensitively to climate oscillations with advance or retreat. Therefore, we study glacier systems and their behavior during the transition from colder to warmer climate episodes in glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the Austrian Alps.  

Using a combination of geomorphological mapping and beryllium-10 surface exposure dating, we reconstruct ice extents of the past and find that glaciers stabilized during the Pre-Bølling to Bølling transition (14.4 ± 1.0 ka, n=3), during the Younger Dryas (ca. 12.9-11.7 ka; n=7), and during the earliest Holocene (ca. 12-10 ka; n=2). The first, (pre)-Bølling age group indicates a stable ice margin that postdates the Gschnitz stadial (ca. 17-16 ka) and predates the Younger Dryas. It shows that local inner-alpine glaciers prevailed until the onset of the Bølling warm phase (ca. 14.6 ka) or possibly even into the Bølling. The second Younger Dryas age group captures the spatial and temporal fine structure of glacier retreat during the Egesen stadial prior to Holocene warming. It evidences ice surface lowering of several tens of meters throughout the Younger Dryas, which is indicative of milder climate conditions at the end of the stadial compared to its beginning. The third age group falls into a period of substantial warming, the Younger Dryas-Holocene transition. The deposition of moraines during a period of abrupt warming implies centennial-scale cold snaps that were probably caused by feedback in the climate system. An explanation proposed in the Younger Dryas-Holocene context is the deglaciation of ice sheets in the Northern hemisphere and resulting freshwater input into the Atlantic ocean, which in turn slowed down ocean circulations and thus reduced heat transport toward (Northern) Europe.

The new geochronologies synthesized with pre-existing moraine records from the Silvretta Massif show that the transition from glacial to interglacial climate conditions occurred within a few centuries and illustrate the sensitive response of Silvretta glaciers to abrupt warming events in the past. Our ice-margin reconstructions provide an example of the response of glaciers and the climate system in a warming world.

How to cite: Braumann, S. M., Schaefer, J. M., Neuhuber, S., and Fiebig, M.: Climate transitions during the Late Glacial and the Early Holocene reconstructed from moraine records in the Austrian Alps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9602, 2022.

EGU22-9793 | Presentations | GM7.3

Numerical reconstructions of the Patagonian Ice Sheet: Growth and demise through the Late Quaternary 

Andrés Castillo, Matthias Prange, Jorjo Bernales, Franco Retamal-Ramírez, Michael Schulz, and Irina Rogozhina

Glacial geomorphological and geochronological studies suggest that the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) stretched from 38°S to 55°S during the Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 2-3. While its western margin reached the Pacific Ocean, the easternmost sectors of the PIS were characterized by terrestrial lobes that fed large paleo glacial lakes after its maximum extension towards the end of the MIS 3. An ice-marginal stabilization occurred throughout the global Last Glacial Maximum followed by a rapid deglaciation after 18,000 yr before present.

Here we present an ensemble of transient numerical simulations of the PIS that have been carried out to provide information on its thickness and extents through the MIS 3 and MIS 2. Our aim here is to determine the range of climate conditions that matches the field-derived ice sheet geometries and the timing of local deglaciation, while bracketing the spread in possible ice volumes and sea level contributions originating from uncertainties in the internal parameters and external forcings. The model ensemble makes use of the new higher-order version of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS forced by combination of present-day atmospheric conditions from the ERA5 reanalysis and outputs from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) and new Community Earth System Model (CESM) experiments. Our results indicate that the regional climate conditions required to reproduce a realistic growth and demise of the PIS through the Late Quaternary are not captured by coarse-resolution global climate models, implying the necessity of high spatial-resolution regional modeling. Our results also suggest that in order to realistically simulate the evolution of the PIS in agreement with geological archives, the MIS3 should have witnessed colder regional temperatures in and around Patagonia than those shown by global climate models for the MIS 2.

How to cite: Castillo, A., Prange, M., Bernales, J., Retamal-Ramírez, F., Schulz, M., and Rogozhina, I.: Numerical reconstructions of the Patagonian Ice Sheet: Growth and demise through the Late Quaternary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9793, 2022.

EGU22-10361 | Presentations | GM7.3

Holocene history of Rio Tranquilo Glacier, Monte San Lorenzo (47°S), Central Patagonia 

Esteban Sagredo, Scott Reynhout, Michael Kaplan, Juan Aravena, Paola Araya, Brian Luckman, Roseanne Schwartz, and Joerg Schaefer

A well-resolved glacial chronology is crucial to compare sequences of glacial/climate events within and between regions, and thus, to unravel mechanisms underlying past climate changes. Important efforts have been made towards understanding the Holocene climate evolution of the Southern Andes; however, the timing, patterns and causes of glacial fluctuations during this period remain elusive. Advances in surface exposure dating techniques, together with the establishment of a Patagonian 10Be production rate, have opened new possibilities for establishing high-resolution glacial chronologies at centennial/decadal scale. Here we present a new comprehensive Holocene moraine chronology from Mt. San Lorenzo (47°S) in central Patagonia, Southern Hemisphere. Twenty-four new 10Be ages, together with three published ages, indicate that the Río Tranquilo glacier approached its Holocene maximum position sometime, or possibly on multiple occasions, between 9860 ± 180 and 6730 ± 130 yr. This event(s) was followed by a sequence of slightly smaller advances at 5750 ± 220, 4290 ± 100 (?), 3490 ± 140, 1440 ± 60, between 670 ± 20 and 430 ± 20, and at 390 ± 10 yr ago. By comparing our results with other glacier chronologies from central and southern Patagonia, we explore the role of the Southern Westerly Winds as a pacemaker of the Holocene glacier fluctuation in southern South America. 

How to cite: Sagredo, E., Reynhout, S., Kaplan, M., Aravena, J., Araya, P., Luckman, B., Schwartz, R., and Schaefer, J.: Holocene history of Rio Tranquilo Glacier, Monte San Lorenzo (47°S), Central Patagonia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10361, 2022.

EGU22-10632 | Presentations | GM7.3

Deglaciation dynamics of the Rio Cisnes palaeo-outlet glacier (~45°S), former Patagonian Ice Sheet 

Emma Cooper, Varyl Thorndycraft, Bethan Davies, Adrian Palmer, and Juan-Luis García

The former Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) expanded and contracted multiple times during the Quaternary, preserving a well-defined geomorphological and sedimentological record of ice extent and dynamics. Influenced by both regional (e.g. Southern Westerly Winds) and interhemispheric climate forcing mechanisms, reconstructions of PIS extent and dynamics through time may yield unique insights into Southern Hemisphere (palaeo-)climate and (palaeo-)glacier dynamics.

An increasing number of palaeoglaciological reconstructions in Patagonia have highlighted spatial asynchrony in the timing of local glacial maxima and deglaciation. This offset in the timing of ice advance/retreat implies that dynamic controls, such as topography or calving mechanisms, played a part in regulating the structure and pace of deglaciation. Assessing the role of these mechanisms is complicated by a general lack of glacial landsystems work in Patagonia, particularly north of the Northern Patagonian Icefield (46 – 47.5 °S).

Here we aim to understand the timing, structure, and style of deglaciation in the Rio Cisnes valley, an eastern outlet glacier of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet. We combine glacial geomorphological mapping, field sedimentology, Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, and a new chronology based on cosmogenic nuclide surface-exposure age dating. These data informed a refined deglacial ice and palaeolake reconstruction. The new 10Be exposure ages constrain the timing of palaeolake level drop to ~16 ka, which indicates that icefield outlet glaciers were retreating back from their zone of confluence in the Cisnes valley into their respective valleys by this time, leaving the main Cisnes valley ice free.

How to cite: Cooper, E., Thorndycraft, V., Davies, B., Palmer, A., and García, J.-L.: Deglaciation dynamics of the Rio Cisnes palaeo-outlet glacier (~45°S), former Patagonian Ice Sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10632, 2022.

EGU22-10709 | Presentations | GM7.3

Geomorphic and sedimentologic impacts of the Big Lost River Floods, east-central Idaho, USA 

Glenn Thackray and Braedon Warner

The Big Lost River Floods impacted the Basin and Range landscape of east-central Idaho during Late Pleistocene time, exerting geomorphic and sedimentologic effects preserved primarily in the flood source and sink areas.  The floods resulted from ice dam rupture in the Pioneer Mountains, traversed the wide tectonic basin of the Big Lost River valley, and terminated in a closed lacustrine basin on the Eastern Snake River Plain. We elucidate the history of multiple floods, their magnitudes, and their timing through surficial geologic mapping, cosmogenic radionuclide dating, and hydraulic modeling. 

The East Fork Big Lost River was dammed by the Wildhorse Canyon glacier at its maximum extent, forming Glacial Lake East Fork (GLEF). Flood-transported boulders extend ca. 20 km downvalley from the dam.  Distinct boulder bars and meso-scale cataracts cover several hundred hectares of basalt plains landscape in the Arco Scablands, 100 km downstream from the source, with isolated boulders from the source area.  Very little flood evidence has been identified in the intervening segment of the floodway. 

In the source area, ice damming occurred only during near-maximum ice extent, with GLEF volume and outburst flood discharge assumed to be correlative with dam thickness. Ages from new 10Be CRN and OSL dating reveal that GLEF was most recently dammed ca. 20.6 ka.  This age is similar to a published 3He chronology from Arco Scabland flood boulders. However, we have conducted additional dating in the Arco Scablands, and a second age mode of 35 ka is clear from the combined 3He datasets, suggesting extensive glaciation of the flood source area at that time. A closed-basin lake in the river-terminating basin further downstream has also yielded unpublished results from other workers, demonstrating correlative MIS 3 and 2 lake highstands.

HEC-RAS 2-D hydraulic modeling constrains likely flood discharges in the Arco Scablands. The results suggest MIS 3 flood discharge of ca. 30,000 m3/s and MIS 2 flood discharge of ca. 10,000 m3/s.

The concentration of apparent flood evidence likely reflects the variability of stream power along the floodway.  In the upstream reach, floodwaters were confined within a 1 km-wide valley, concentrating stream power. Erratic boulders mantle outwash terraces throughout this reach.  Downstream, the valley widens to 3-10 km; the wide valley would have dramatically reduced stream power and, thus, limited the capacity for geomorphic work.  Flood deposits in that reach were presumably either eroded or buried. In this context, it is surprising that flood evidence is dramatic in the Arco Scablands, which occupy low-relief, basalt-mantled Eastern Snake River Plain landscape.  Despite the overall low relief, two factors appear to have focused floodwaters into the Scablands.  First, simple topographic variability amongst individual basalt flows and monogenetic shield volcano slopes appear to have been sufficient to limit the floodway width and concentrate stream power, despite the general low relief.  Second, a ca. 1 km wide structural graben at the mouth of the Big Lost River valley appears to have focused the floodwaters into that low-relief floodway.

How to cite: Thackray, G. and Warner, B.: Geomorphic and sedimentologic impacts of the Big Lost River Floods, east-central Idaho, USA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10709, 2022.

EGU22-10767 | Presentations | GM7.3

Reconstructed post gLGM glacier recession and climatic variability of the Changme Khangpu valley, Eastern Himalayas, INDIA 

Manasi Debnath, Milap Chand Sharma, Hiambok Jones Syiemlieh, and Arindam Chowdhury

The glaciated Changme Khangpu basin (CKB) covering an area of 767.8 km2, constitutes an important region in the Eastern Himalayas for palaeoclimate research to assess variability over recent geological times. Climatically, this part of the Himalayas is mainly controlled by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). We provide a combination of multiproxy data, i.e., geomorphological, sedimentological, geochemical, Accelerator Mass Spectrometry 14C dating and Schmidt Hammer rebound value dating methods in reconstructing glacier and climatic changes related to the post global Last Glacial Maximum (gLGM) in the Changme Khangpu basin of the Sikkim Himalaya. The four set of well-preserved moraines depicted four advances of this glacier and palaeoclimate has been reconstructed after the Phase-II glacier advances i.e. post gLGM period. The post gLGM glacier recession in the Changme Khangpu (CK) valley witnessed a prolonged humid climate phase from <14.29 ± 0.22 ka to 7.08 ± 0.08 ka cal BP that inferred from the sedimentary log in this valley and incidentally correlate with the monsoonal reactivation (15 ka to 12 ka BP) in Southern Asia. This humid period was succeeded by dry climatic phases from 7.08 ka to 5.4 ka cal BP and from 5.18 to 4.65 ka cal BP, which well correlates with the dry phases in the Chopta valley, west of this area in Sikkim Himalaya. The glacier had receded from its Phase-III advance in between <4 and >1.3 ka BP. This period was followed by the active paraglacial fan formation and witnessed historical outburst events in this valley.

 

Keywords: Changme Khangpu glacier (Sikkim); Eastern Himalayas; Last Glacial Maximum; Palaeoclimate; Glacier geomorphology; 14C AMS dating; Chemical index of alteration.

How to cite: Debnath, M., Sharma, M. C., Syiemlieh, H. J., and Chowdhury, A.: Reconstructed post gLGM glacier recession and climatic variability of the Changme Khangpu valley, Eastern Himalayas, INDIA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10767, 2022.

EGU22-12198 | Presentations | GM7.3

Glacial fluctuations in the southwestern Wicklow Mountains, Ireland. 

Margaret Jackson, Gordon Bromley, and Brenda Hall

Mapping and dating former glacial margins is a key tool for assessing the sensitivity of glaciers to changing climate conditions, both past and future. However in many regions, such as along the northeastern margins of the North Atlantic, direct chronologic control on past glacier extent can be sparse. In particular, the former extent and elevation of the Irish Ice Sheet (IIS) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 26-19 ka) and subsequent termination remain a topic of debate - due in part to the coarse resolution of existing (direct) age control on glacial margins. This includes the margins of former valley and cirque glaciers that nucleated in the Irish highlands after local retreat of the IIS. In eastern Ireland, the Wicklow Mountains host numerous valley and cirque moraines that are largely undated, evidence of past glacial fluctuations following the LGM. Here we report new geomorphic mapping and cosmogenic beryllium-10 surface-exposure ages of moraines in the Glen of Imaal in the southwestern Wicklow Mountains. Our preliminary beryllium-10 ages provide new chronologic constraint on the extent of glaciers in the Glen of Imaal following the LGM. We also compare our preliminary glacial chronology with records of wider North Atlantic climate to investigate the response of ice in the Glen of Imaal to changing climate conditions. These data provide new insight on Ireland’s glacial past, and yield vital information on climate and glaciation in the wider North Atlantic region. 

How to cite: Jackson, M., Bromley, G., and Hall, B.: Glacial fluctuations in the southwestern Wicklow Mountains, Ireland., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12198, 2022.

EGU22-13508 | Presentations | GM7.3

Advances on submarine geomorphology at the Fjord system of Gran Campo Nevado (~52°S) 

Mario Veloso-Alarcón, Gazis Iason-Zois, Alessa Geiger, Bertrand Sebastien, and Cristián Rodrigo

The glacial history of Patagonia has been built from paleoclimate records found at the margin of the former Patagonian Ice-sheet. However, current deglaciation models of Patagonia still have spatio-temporal gaps to be filled. In this direction, the study of the submerged paleo-climate records at the Patagonian Fjord system and pro-glacial lakes could fill these gaps and enhance our knowledge on deglaciation in Patagonia. However, the exploration of such remote areas is hindered by logistic challenges and rough weather conditions.

In November of 2018 we collected the first high-resolution swath multibeam echosounder (MBES) bathymetry of Senos Icy and Glacier, the southern section of Canal Gajardo and Estero Portaluppi, which are fjords located at the flanks of Gran Campo Nevado. In this work, we present this new bathymetry and its first geomorphological interpretation. The analysis revealed a heterogeneous seafloor with geomorphological features related to glacial dynamics. The data interpretation is supplemented by shallow sub-bottom profiles that have been also acquired during that survey. We think that such information is the baseline for future exploration of these fjords focused on the already identified submerged glacial bedforms and their chronology.  

How to cite: Veloso-Alarcón, M., Iason-Zois, G., Geiger, A., Sebastien, B., and Rodrigo, C.: Advances on submarine geomorphology at the Fjord system of Gran Campo Nevado (~52°S), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13508, 2022.

EGU22-1 | Presentations | AS3.10

Abundance and fractional solubility of aerosol iron during winter at a coastal city in northern China 

Mingjin Tang, Huanhuan Zhang, Rui Li, and Shuwei Dong

Aerosol deposition is a major source of soluble Fe in open oceans, affecting marine biogeochemistry and primary production. However, Fe fractional solubility, a key parameter in estimating deposition fluxes of soluble aerosol Fe, is still highly uncertain. Abundance and fractional solubility of aerosol Fe in fine and coarse particles was measured at Qingdao (a coastal city in northern China) in November-December 2019. Average concentrations of total and soluble Fe were found to be 798±466 and 7.7±14.5 ng/m3 in coarse particles, and 801±534 and 7.3±7.6 ng/m3 in fine particles. Total Fe was well correlated with total Al for both fine and coarse particles, whereas soluble Fe was correlated with total Al for coarse particle but not for fine particles. Fe solubility was significantly lower in coarse particles (average: 0.80±1.03%) than fine particles (average 1.29±1.41%), and inverse relationship was observed between Fe solubility and total Fe concentration for fine particles but not for coarse particles. Compared to clean days, total Fe concentration was substantially increased during dust and haze days; however, Fe solubility was significantly reduced in dust days and elevated in haze days. Primary emission and secondary formation both contributed significantly to enhanced Fe solubility for both fine and coarse particles. Higher Fe solubility (>1%) in fine and coarse particles was usually observed at high aerosol acidity (pH<4) and high RH (>60%), suggesting critical roles of aerosol acidity and RH in regulating aerosol Fe solubility.

How to cite: Tang, M., Zhang, H., Li, R., and Dong, S.: Abundance and fractional solubility of aerosol iron during winter at a coastal city in northern China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1, 2022.

EGU22-670 | Presentations | AS3.10

Emissions of radioactive aerosols during wildfires and dust storm in Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in April 2020 estimated by means of ensemble inverse modeling 

Ivan Kovalets, Mykola Talerko, Roman Synkevych, Serhii Koval, and Oleg Udovenko

The dynamics of emissions of radioactive aerosols during powerful wildfires (3-23 April 2020) and dust storm (16-17 April 2020) in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (ChEZ) was estimated using an ensemble inverse method. The unique feature of this event is that the wildfires of unprecedented power in ChEZ were combined with the dust storm on 16-17 April 2020, which covered the Northern-West and Central Ukraine. Due to both events, the levels of Cs-137 concentrations in air were increased significantly above the background levels. In our study, the ensemble covariance matrices of model errors were calculated by a series of runs of the FLEXPART atmospheric transport model using different input meteorological data (22 meteorological datasets produced by Global Ensemble Forecasting System GEFS) and different sets of model parameters describing the size distribution of particles and height distribution of releases. Simulations covered the period from 3rd to 27th of April 2020. The prior estimates for the temporal dynamics of emissions were taken from [1]. Measurements of Cs-137 concentration in air collected by different countries and presented in [2] were used for source inversion. The vertical extensions of releases from different sources were estimated based on the data of the CAMS Global Fire Assimilation System. The fractions of emissions below plume bottom and between plume bottom and plume top heights were allowed to vary in different ensemble runs. It is shown that varying all the mentioned parameters (meteorological data, particle size distribution, and the parameters of emission distribution by height) significantly affected the results of the calculated temporal dynamics of emissions during the wildfires. However, the variability of meteorological data had the largest overall influence on the results. Confidence intervals for emissions from wildfires and dust storm (16-17 April) were obtained by processing the ensemble of estimates. The estimated total emissions of Cs-137 from the wildfires ranged from about 200 to about 1000 GBq. The total estimates of Cs-137 emissions due to the dust storm estimated by inverse modeling appeared to be considerably less than the emissions from the wildfires on the same days. At the same time, the levels of air pollution by common contaminants (PM2.5 and ash) observed in Kyiv were strongly dominated by the dust storm because the area covered by the dust storm was much greater than the area of ChEZ.

References

  • Talerko, M., Kovalets, I., Lev, T., Igarashi,  Y., Romanenko, O.  (2021) Simulation study of the radionuclide atmospheric transport after wildland fires in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in April 2020. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 12(3) 193-204. DOI:1016/j.apr.2021.01.010
  • Masson O., Romanenko O., Saunier O., Kirieiev S., Protsak V., Laptev G., Voitsekhovych O., Durand V., Coppin F. [et al.] (2021) Europe-Wide Atmospheric Radionuclide Dispersion by Unprecedented Wildfires in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, April 2020. Environmental Science & Technology, 55(20) 13834-13848. DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c03314

How to cite: Kovalets, I., Talerko, M., Synkevych, R., Koval, S., and Udovenko, O.: Emissions of radioactive aerosols during wildfires and dust storm in Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in April 2020 estimated by means of ensemble inverse modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-670, 2022.

EGU22-709 | Presentations | AS3.10

Dry air intrusions link Rossby wave breaking to large-scale dust storms in North Africa 

Elody Fluck and Shira Raveh-Rubin

Large-scale dust storms over North Africa transport mineral dust over thousands of kilometers equatorward and into the Mediterranean, thereby affecting human health and infrastructures. Dry Intrusions (DIs) are synoptic-scale descending airstreams from the midlatitude upper troposphere towards the surface. DIs occur behind midlatitude troughs and cyclones, and were shown to induce potential instability and enhance surface wind in the planetary boundary layer. Thus, DIs can potentially play a major role in the emission and transport of dust over North Africa.

Here, we aim to understand whether DIs are a common element that can link Rossby wave breaking, a known precursor of large emission events, to the high surface dust concentrations in Lagrangian sense, and to further understand the role of DIs in dust emission. By focusing on selected events and compiling a climatology for the years 2003-2018 we specifically aim to quantify the link between the co-occurrence of DIs and dust events, and identify common precursors. Using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalyzed dust optical depth (DOD), vertical dust mixing ratios, atmospheric fields from ERA-Interim reanalysis and a Lagrangian-based detection of DIs, we identify DI-dust events by applying a systematic matching algorithm.

We find that DI-dust events typically peak in winter to spring, and are associated with the maximal dust concentrations in the region. Multiple Rossby wave breakings in the eastern North Atlantic is a common precursor to DI-dust events. The DI airstream is found to connect the upper-tropospheric ridge/trough to the highest surface dust concentrations. Typically, a Mediterranean cyclone further steers the dust over North Africa and northward into the Mediterranean and Europe/Middle East. Vertical profiles of dust mixing ratios show that dust can reach the upper troposphere in the vicinity of the cyclone, attesting to long-range dust transport into the Mediterranean Sea and Europe.

Overall, our detailed case studies and climatological results emphasize the central role of DIs in producing large-scale dust storms. The distinct regional and seasonal frequency of DI-dust occurrence and their coherent precursor signals over the North Atlantic provide valuable information for understanding the predictability of such hazardous events.

 

 

How to cite: Fluck, E. and Raveh-Rubin, S.: Dry air intrusions link Rossby wave breaking to large-scale dust storms in North Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-709, 2022.

EGU22-788 | Presentations | AS3.10

Effects of heterogeneous reaction with NO2 on ice nucleation activities of feldspar and Arizona Test Dust 

Lanxiadi Chen, Chao Peng, Jingchuan Chen, Jie Chen, Zhijun Wu, and Mingjin Tang

Mineral dust is an important type of ice nucleating particles in the troposphere; however, the effects of heterogeneous reactions on ice nucleation (IN) activities of mineral dust remain to be elucidated. A droplet-freezing apparatus (Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry Ice Nucleation Apparatus, GIGINA) was developed in this work to measure IN activities of atmospheric particles in the immersion freezing mode, and its performance was validated by a series of experimental characterizations. This apparatus was then employed to measure IN activities of feldspar and Arizona Test Dust (ATD) particles before and after heterogeneous reaction with NO2 (10±0.5 ppmv) at 40% relative humidity. The fractional surface coverage of nitrate, θ(NO3-), increased to 3.1±0.2 for feldspar after reaction with NO2 for 6 h, and meanwhile the active site density per unit surface area (ns) at -20 oC was reduced from 92±5 to <1.0cm-2 by about two orders of magnitude; however, no changes in nitrate content or IN activities were observed for further increase in reaction time (up to 24 h). Both nitrate content and IN activities changed continuously with reaction time (up to 24 h) for ATD particles; after reaction with NO2 for 24 h, θ(NO3-) increased to 1.4±0.1 and ns at -20 oC was reduced from 20±4 to 9.7±1.9 cm-2 by a factor of ~2. Our work suggests that heterogeneous reaction with NO2 may significantly reduce IN activities of mineral dust in the immersion freezing mode.

How to cite: Chen, L., Peng, C., Chen, J., Chen, J., Wu, Z., and Tang, M.: Effects of heterogeneous reaction with NO2 on ice nucleation activities of feldspar and Arizona Test Dust, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-788, 2022.

EGU22-980 | Presentations | AS3.10

The impact of assimilating AEOLUS wind data on regional Aeolian dust model simulations using WRF-Chem. 

Pantelis Kiriakidis, Antonis Gkikas, George Papangelis, Jonilda Kushta, Theodoros Christoudias, Eleni Drakaki, Emmanouil Proestakis, Eleni Marinou, Anna Gialitaki, Anna Kampouri, Christos Spyrou, Angela Benedetti, Michael Rennie, Anna Grete Straume, Christian Retscher, Alexandru Dandocsi, Jean Sciare, and Vassilis Amiridis

One of the most important factors towards improved mineral dust mobilization and transport modelling is the representation of wind fields, which determine dust emission and atmospheric lifetime. The potential improvements on regional dust simulations attributed to the assimilation of Aeolus wind profiles is the core objective of the NEWTON (ImproviNg dust monitoring and forEcasting through Aeolus Wind daTa assimilatiON) ESA project. 

Towards this goal, the Weather Research and Forecasting regional atmospheric model coupled with chemistry (WRF/Chem) is used to simulate the airborne dust concentrations for two-month long periods in the spring and fall season of 2020, with special focus on a dust case in October 2020. The model is driven by ECMWF IFS outputs produced with (hel4) and without (hel1) assimilation of Aeolus quality-assured Rayleigh-clear and Mie-cloudy wind profiles. Our experiments are performed over the broader Eastern Mediterranean region that is subjected frequently to dust transport, encompassing the major natural erodible dust sources of the planet. Dust-related model outputs (extinction coefficient, optical depth and concentrations) are qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated against ground-based columnar and vertically resolved aerosol optical properties acquired by AERONET sun photometers and PollyXT lidar, as well as near-surface concentrations available through EMEP. Our assessment further includes comparison versus LIVAS and MIDAS satellite-derived datasets providing vertical and columnar dust optical properties, respectively. 

Overall, in cases of either high or low aerosol loadings, the model predictive skill is improved when the regional simulations are initialized with Aeolus wind assimilation (hel4). The improvement varies in space and time, with the inclusion of the assimilated wind profiles into IFS meteorological fields having a larger impact on the spatiotemporal distribution of dust particles during the fall compared to the spring months. During the case study of interest in October 2020, there is strong evidence of a better representation of the Mediterranean desert dust outbreak spatiotemporal patterns based on the hel4 experiment. Such improvements are driven by wind fields throughout the atmosphere affecting mobilization mechanisms through surface winds, and transport and removal processes. Comparison with MIDAS saw a remarkable improvement for the hel4 against the hel1 simulated AODs, over the central and eastern sectors of the Mediterranean and Middle East regions. Confirmed by the drastically reductions of the model biases (either positive or negative) and the increased correlation (up to 0.28), meanwhile for several AERONET stations there was an average improvement in the correlation of assimilated outputs compared to control ones. 

How to cite: Kiriakidis, P., Gkikas, A., Papangelis, G., Kushta, J., Christoudias, T., Drakaki, E., Proestakis, E., Marinou, E., Gialitaki, A., Kampouri, A., Spyrou, C., Benedetti, A., Rennie, M., Straume, A. G., Retscher, C., Dandocsi, A., Sciare, J., and Amiridis, V.: The impact of assimilating AEOLUS wind data on regional Aeolian dust model simulations using WRF-Chem., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-980, 2022.

EGU22-1278 | Presentations | AS3.10

Hygroscopicity and Ice Nucleation Properties of Dust/Salt Mixture Originated from the Source of East Asian Dust Storm 

Jun Li, Wanyu Liu, Wenjun Wenjun, Linjie Li, Mingjin Tang, Mattias Hallquist, Sen Wang, and Xiangrui Kong

Dust storms are common meteorological disasters which occur frequently in the late spring and early summer in arid and semi-arid areas. Deserts in North Africa, Middle East Asia, Western Australia and Western North America are the most important dust-prone areas in the world. Along with the dust storm, salt components originated from inland saline lake and playas are often mixed with dust and transported to long distances. Dust/salt mixtures from the source of East Asian Dust Storm have great impacts on atmospheric chemistry processes and climate system due to their high hygroscopicity and efficient ice nucleation ability.

 

In this study, dust/salt mixture samples are collected from important sources of East Asian Dust Storm, i.e., Badain Jaran Desert, Tengger Desert and Ulan Buh Desert in northwestern China. Ion chromatography (IC) measurements were performed to determine the concentrations of cations (Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, and NH4+) and anions (Cl, SO42−, NO3, NO2, and F). Synchrotron-based scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) was carried out to show the morphology and chemical mapping of typical dust/salt particles. Hygroscopic properties of the samples are measured by a vapor sorption analyzer, and a thermodynamic model is used to predict the deliquescence relative humidity (DRH) based on chemical composition of the samples. To further understand the linkages between the physiochemical properties and the origins/types of the samples, we performed positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor model to analyze the results of the IC and the DRH results. In addition, the ice nucleation abilities were conducted with the portable ice nucleation chamber II (PINCii), where both homogeneous freezing and deposition nucleation were observed on the dust/particle aerosol particles/droplets.

How to cite: Li, J., Liu, W., Wenjun, W., Li, L., Tang, M., Hallquist, M., Wang, S., and Kong, X.: Hygroscopicity and Ice Nucleation Properties of Dust/Salt Mixture Originated from the Source of East Asian Dust Storm, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1278, 2022.

EGU22-2465 | Presentations | AS3.10 | Highlight

Aircraft Engine Dust Ingestion at Major Global Airports 

Claire Ryder, Clement Bezier, Helen Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Eleni Marinou, Manolis Proestakis, Alexandros Alexiou, Vassilis Amiridis, Zak Kipling, Anglea Benedetti, and Mark Parrington

Mineral dust is the most abundant aerosol in the atmosphere and in particular regions exists in high concentrations. Ingestion of dust by aircraft engines can result in erosion, corrosion or a build-up of deposits damaging internal components. A move towards more efficient engines over recent years restricts capacity to tolerate detrimental impacts in engines. Air traffic in arid areas such as the Middle East has also increased dust exposure. However, it is not currently known how much dust is ingested by aircraft during take-off and landing. In order to quantify this, the vertical profile of dust is required. Here we present a climatology of vertical profiles of dust from the ECMWF Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring System (CAMS) reanalysis at 10 major global airports, as well as their seasonal and diurnal variability, between 2003-2020. We evaluate the CAMS dust profiles against spaceborne lidar retrievals of dust from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument aboard the CALIPSO satellite using both the standard NASA Level 3 product and the LIdar climatology of Vertical Aerosol Structure (LIVAS) product. Finally, using expected aircraft ascent and descent rates and associated mass flow into an engine, dust dose is calculated for take-off, climb, descent, hold, approach, land and taxi phases, as well as for the entire ascent/descent at different airports, using both CAMS and CALIOP datasets.

 

We show that vertical distribution of dust varies significantly between airports and across seasons, which has a large impact on the total engine dust ingestion. Diurnal dust variations at some airports such as Dubai are extremely large, with night time surface concentrations reduced by over 20%.  Vertical profiles from CAMS show considerable differences to the standard CALIOP L3 retrievals, though agreement with LIVAS profiles is much better. Aircraft engine dose is found to be highest for Delhi (where does exceed 7g for a single descent in summer), Niamey and Dubai. During ascent, ingestion is largest during take-off, such that airports with large concentrations of lower altitude dust incur higher doses. During descent, dose is strongly dependent of the altitude of holding pattern relative to the altitude of maximum dust concentration, such that Delhi and Dubai incur the largest dust dose. Therefore, it is recommended that measures to reduce dust ingestion are airport-specific, and could include practices such as night time take-off and adjustment of holding pattern altitude.

How to cite: Ryder, C., Bezier, C., Dacre, H., Clarkson, R., Marinou, E., Proestakis, M., Alexiou, A., Amiridis, V., Kipling, Z., Benedetti, A., and Parrington, M.: Aircraft Engine Dust Ingestion at Major Global Airports, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2465, 2022.

EGU22-3132 | Presentations | AS3.10 | Highlight

Orange snow and citizen science 

Marie Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Marion Reveillet, and Didier Voisin and the Collectif neige orange

In the beginning of February 2021, a large dust plume travelled from the Sahara across the Mediterranean Sea and deposited a colorful layer of particles on the snow-covered slopes of the Pyrenees and the Alps. The event was widely reported in the media due to the surprising color of the sky and of the snow cover. 

To characterize the amount of dust deposited on the ground during this remarkable event, we organized a citizen science campaign. We collected 150 snow samples from which the deposited dust mass was measured over the Pyrenees, the French and the Swiss Alps. The analysis of all samples shows a robust deposition gradient from the Pyrenees to the Alps and enhanced deposition rates on south facing slopes in agreement with satellite data. The samples were used in combination with detailed snow modeling to evaluate the dramatic impact of the dust deposition on the melt and duration of the snow cover. 

How to cite: Dumont, M., Gascoin, S., Reveillet, M., and Voisin, D. and the Collectif neige orange: Orange snow and citizen science, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3132, 2022.

EGU22-3363 | Presentations | AS3.10 | Highlight

Identifying the dominant local factors of 2000-2019 changes in dust loading over East Asia 

Huizheng Che, Wenrui Yao, Ke Gui, Yaqiang Wang, and Xiaoye Zhang

East Asian dust aerosols play a vital role in the local and regional climate through its direct, indirect, and semidirect effects, but the dominant factors affecting the interannual variation of dust aerosols over East Asia and their regional differences remain unclear. This study verified the accuracy of MEERA-2 dust data in East Asia, analyzed the interannual trends of dust in East Asia from 2000 to 2019 using the MERRA-2 dust column mass density (DCMD) and identified the dominant factors affecting the interannual variation during the dusty season (March–July) by developing the regional multiple linear regression models, combined with correlation and partial correlation analysis. The comparison with the dust index (DI) calculated from ground-based observations of dust events frequency indicated that MERRA-2 DCMD exhibited high spatial agreement (R > 0.8) with ground-based observations in most regions (especially in the dust source region of North China). The trend analysis revealed that DCMD in East Asia decreased significantly after 2000, particularly in the dusty season (March–July). These significant decreases were generally highly correlated with increases in normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), volumetric soil moisture (VSM), and precipitation (PPT) and with decreases in wind speed (WS). Furthermore, WS dominated the interannual variation in the dust concentration over the East Asian dust source regions and their downstream. By contrast, PPT, through its wet deposition effect, dominated the variation in the rest of the regions away from the dust source regions. The study findings may help clarify the associations between local meteorological and surface factors and long-term variations in dust aerosols over East Asia.

How to cite: Che, H., Yao, W., Gui, K., Wang, Y., and Zhang, X.: Identifying the dominant local factors of 2000-2019 changes in dust loading over East Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3363, 2022.

Throughout the year, the Tropical Atlantic Ocean receives constantly enormous amounts of mineral particles emitted over the western Sahara. Despite the numerous efforts, the current state-of-the-art atmospheric-dust models are not yet able to represent adequately the Saharan dust outflows towards the Atlantic Ocean. Several drawbacks in the relevant parameterization schemes can explain this deficiency, which subsequently hampers an optimal assessment of the dust-induced impacts. One of these aspects is the wind acting as the driving force of dust emission and transport. Thanks to the deployment of the ALADIN (Atmospheric Laser Doppler Lidar) lidar, onboard the European Space Agency (ESA) Aeolus satellite, profiles of HLOS (Horizontal Line-Of-Sight) winds are acquired globally up to a maximum of 30 km altitude. This unique global dataset is filling an existing observational gap in the Tropics, among other regions of the planet. In addition, the assimilation of Aeolus HLOS winds has revealed an improvement in numerical weather predictions (NWP), particularly in the Tropics where the major portion of the global dust budget resides.

The improvements of NWP are expected to also advance dust numerical simulations. Such hypothesis is under investigation in the NEWTON (ImproviNg dust monitoring and forEcasting through Aeolus Wind daTa assimilatiON) project funded by ESA under the Aeolus+Innovation framework. To address the NEWTON scientific objective, short-term regional dust forecasts, relying on the WRF model operating at the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), are conducted. More specifically, two WRF runs are performed using boundary and initial conditions from the ECMWF IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) outputs, produced with (hel4) and without (hel1) the assimilation of Aeolus quality screened Rayleigh-clear and Mie-cloudy wind profiles. Our simulation domain encompasses most part of the Sahara Desert and the Atlantic Ocean, bounded between the Equator and mid-latitudes. Focus is given on September 2021, when the JATAC (Joint Aeolus Tropical Atlantic Campaign) campaign took place in Cape Verde providing reference observations (ground-based, airborne) valuable for a comprehensive evaluation of WRF dust-related outputs. The assessment analysis is further extended by utilizing the satellite dust datasets MIDAS (ModIs Dust AeroSol) and LIVAS (LIdar climatology of Vertical Aerosol Structure for space-based lidar simulation studies), both developed at NOA, providing columnar dust optical depth and vertical profiles of dust extinction, respectively. Finally, all the NEWTON related activities are disseminated via the official website (https://newton.space.noa.gr) and the EO4Society portal (https://eo4society.esa.int/).

How to cite: Gkikas, A. and the NEWTON team: Assessing the impact of Aeolus wind data assimilation on the Saharan dust simulations in the framework of the JATAC campaign, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3586, 2022.

EGU22-3633 | Presentations | AS3.10

The ASKOS experiment for desert dust science applications 

Vassilis Amiridis and the ASKOS team

The Joint Aeolus Tropical Atlantic Campaign (JATAC) has been conducted in summer/autumn 2021 at the Cape Verde, with the main aim to provide reference measurements for the validation of the Aeolus products and to collect information for ESA’s upcoming missions such as EarthCARE. Next to an impressive airborne fleet from AVATAR-T and CADDIWA components, situated on the island of Sal, intensive ground-based remote sensing and airborne in situ measurements performed on and above Mindelo in the framework of the ASKOS experiment. Specifically, a full ACTRIS remote sensing super site was deployed in Mindelo, Sao Vicente, including a multiwavelength-Raman-polarization lidar PollyXT, an AERONET sun photometer, a Scanning Doppler wind lidar, a microwave radiometer and a cloud radar. Additionally, ESA’s novel reference lidar system EVE, a combined linear/circular polarization lidar with Raman capabilities, was deployed, which can mimic the observations of the space-borne lidar onboard AEOLUS. Moreover, for 2 weeks in September, a light-weight airplane performed in-situ measurements in the aerosol layers around the island, in altitudes up to 3 km.

Here, will quickly introduce the measurements and present first results on the aerosols observed. Focus is given in the intensive September period, where very different aerosol conditions were observed above and around Mindelo. Usually, the marine boundary layer was up to 1 km and was topped by the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) reaching up to 6 km altitude. Three different dust events were observed. The first one had significant spatiotemporal homogeneity, which is ideal for Cal/Val objectives. The second one had strong horizontal and vertical gradients in composition and concentration and a significant anthropogenic component, making it ideal for an in-depth analysis with the synergistic dataset. After 22 of September, volcanic aerosols from the la Palma volcano were captured, mixed in the local boundary layer and partly above in the dust layer of the 3rd dust event and relevant Aeolus overpass.

As a next step, science application studies are anticipated, using the wealth of information provided by ASKOS and JATAC campaigns, including already the following applications in the framework of ESA and EU projects:

  • Long-range transport of the coarse and giant dust particles;
  • Impact of non-sphericity on dust transport;
  • Impact of electric charge on dust dynamics;
  • Dust particle orientation;
  • Impact of dust on radiation and dynamics;

Impact of dust deposition on ocean biogeochemistry;

How to cite: Amiridis, V. and the ASKOS team: The ASKOS experiment for desert dust science applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3633, 2022.

EGU22-3703 | Presentations | AS3.10

Transport of non-spherical desert dust particles 

Eleni Drakaki, Vassilis Amiridis, Alexandra Tsekeri, Sotirios Mallios, George Papangelis, Christos Spyrou, Claire Ryder, and Petros Katsafados

The long–range transport of larger than expected dust particles has been established in numerous observational studies. However, dust transport models struggle to simulate the observed particle size distributions. Studies utilizing a new version of WRF-chem code that contains the full size range of dust particles (0.2-100μm in diameter), estimated that approximately 80% reduction in the particles’ settling velocity is required for the particles to be transported from the desert towards the Cape Verde. Here, we examine the effect of the dust particles’ shape in the dynamics of coarse and giant long-range transport. We specifically apply a new drag coefficient for spheroids in idealized atmospheric WRF-chem simulations above the Atlantic Ocean. Additionally, since there is much confusion about the definition of the size of non-spherical dust particles, where some studies define size as the diameter of a sphere with the same volume, while others as the particles’ maximum, we perform simulations comparing the spherical and spheroid dust particles using both those two different approaches. The results are encouraging for the explanation of long –range dust transport, however more processes should be re-visited, including the dust radiation effects of non-spherical articles.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by D-TECT (Grant Agreement 725698) funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. Eleni Drakaki is funded by Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF) Fellowship.

 

How to cite: Drakaki, E., Amiridis, V., Tsekeri, A., Mallios, S., Papangelis, G., Spyrou, C., Ryder, C., and Katsafados, P.: Transport of non-spherical desert dust particles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3703, 2022.

EGU22-4609 | Presentations | AS3.10

Insights into NOx and HONO in the subtropical marine boundary layer during MarParCloud campaign at Cape Verde 

Andreas Tilgner, Ying Jiang, Erik H. Hoffmann, and Hartmut Herrmann

Chemical processing of reactive nitrogen species, especially NOx(=NO+NO2) and nitrous acid (HONO), determines/alters critically the photochemical ozone production in the troposphere, affecting the climate change, biological cycle and human healthy. However, the characteristics and sources of nitrous acid (HONO) and NOin the remote marine atmosphere are still poorly understood. Herein, based on the data sets of HONO-related species as well as other parameters measured during MarParCloud campaign at Cape Verde in October 2017, the multiphase chemistry model SPACCIM equipped with the state-of-the-art multiphase chemistry mechanism CAPRAM was adopted with input of current literature parametrizations for various HONO sources in the tropospheric boundary layer (gas reaction of NO and OH, ocean-surface-mediated conversion of NOto HONO, NOreacted with organics on mineral dust, NHoxidation process, and dust-surface-photocatalytic conversions of reactive nitrogen species to HONO) to reveal the relative importance of each source for HONO in the remote boundary layer at Cape Verde. Each simulation was performed for 72 hours in different clusters obtained from the backward trajectories model analysis with HYSPLIT. The simulations well reproduced the observed HONO level and its diurnal pattern, and significantly improved the model performance for NOand Oin every cluster after 72 hours of operation, when considering the mechanisms of dust-surface-photocatalytic conversions of reactive nitrogen species. Furthermore, photolysis of the absorbed HNOon the dust is modelled to be the prevailing contributor for the daytime HONO at Cape Verde, which accounted for about 56%, following by the photo-enhanced of NOabsorbed on the dust (41%). In contrast, the ocean-surface-mediated conversion of NOto HONO and other pathways were found unimportant for HONO formation at Cape Verde. For OH sources, HONO photolysis only accounted for a small proportion source (~3%) of the ambient OH level in remote marine boundary layer due to the low HONO concentration at Cape Verde. In summary, this study highlights the key role of dust aerosols in the formation of HONO and NOat Cape Verde.

How to cite: Tilgner, A., Jiang, Y., Hoffmann, E. H., and Herrmann, H.: Insights into NOx and HONO in the subtropical marine boundary layer during MarParCloud campaign at Cape Verde, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4609, 2022.

EGU22-4818 | Presentations | AS3.10 | Highlight

Saharan dust transported and deposited in Finland on 23 February 2021 

Outi Meinander, Ana Alvarez Piedehierro, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Laura Rontu, Andre Welti, Anu Kaakinen, Enna Heikkinen, and Ari Laaksonen

The Sahara Desert is the largest source of dust worldwide. Finland, north of 60 oN, is annually affected by long-range transported Saharan dust, which is most often observed as red sunrises and sunsets. Observations on dust deposition on ground are rare. On 23 February 2021, Saharan dust was transported and deposited in the southern part of Finland, reaching up a long way inland. At the time, the ground was covered with snow, and therefore the dust deposition was more easily detectable. The deposition was accompanied by freezing rain in the most southern part of the country, and snowfall further north.

Samples of dust in snow were collected by citizens and forwarded to the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) following our researchers’ guidelines advertised in social media. Most samples were a solid residue from 2 dl of superficial snow, that had been either melted and filtered using coffee filters, evaporated on an aluminum foil, or decanted with the help of containers. In addition, fresh samples were collected for reference and were stored in a freezer for further analysis. Samples were received from over 500 locations and each of these contained one or more filtered, evaporated, or decanted dust samples. Dust was observed as far north as Vaasa and Kuopio (~63 oN).

The event was forecasted by the operational SILAM global atmospheric-composition suite of FMI (http://silam.fmi.fi) five days in advance. The suite is driven by the meteorology from the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). According to the model results, the near-surface concentrations of desert dust in Finland on 23.02.2021 were negligible, while the total column reached 100-200 µg/m2, and optical column thickness in some places was up to 0.2, which is enough to be visible. The scavenging of dust from aloft layers resulted in substantial contamination of snow. Light microscopy results indicate the presence of quartz particles in the range 5-15 µm compatible with desert dust. Processed samples from the Askola region (~60 °N), about 20 km north from the southern coastline, show depositions of ~1100 mg/m2. Dust deposition amounts may vary greatly depending on the location and precipitation amounts. Our work also includes ice nucleation experiments, determination of particle size distributions, investigations on organic compounds, microplastics and microorganisms. The citizen science nature of the project will be used to promote and disseminate FMI’s research on aerosols through a specific outreach programme. Our study aims at producing information on latitudinal Saharan dust transport, as well as on deposition particle shapes, size distributions and ice nucleation ability of the particles detected in Finland, through the analysis of the collected samples.

 

 

How to cite: Meinander, O., Alvarez Piedehierro, A., Kouznetsov, R., Rontu, L., Welti, A., Kaakinen, A., Heikkinen, E., and Laaksonen, A.: Saharan dust transported and deposited in Finland on 23 February 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4818, 2022.

EGU22-4891 | Presentations | AS3.10

Nutrient inputs to sahelian soil by atmospheric dust deposition 

Rizewana Marecar, Beatrice Marticorena, Gilles Bergametti, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, Rémi Losno, Jean Louis Rajot, Servanne Chevaillier, Anais Feron, Sylvain Triquet, and Maria Dias-Alves

Dust emission affects soil fertility through nutrient loss in source regions while dust deposition can represent a significant nutrient input for remote ecosystems. If the Sahel is a well-known dust source region, it is also a region where large amounts of dust from the Sahara desert are deposited.                                                         

To quantify the input of nutrients that mineral dust deposition represents for Sahelian soils and to identify the sources responsible for these deposits, a dedicated instrumental setup was deployed during two years in two Sahelian sites of the INDAAF Network : Bambey (Senegal) and Banizoumbou (Niger). The insoluble and the soluble fraction of the atmospheric deposits have been collected separately and analysed. In parallel,  the elemental composition and carbon content of PM10 were determined. A special attention was given to the most important nutrients for the soil fertility in this region (P and N) and on the organic C. Other elements (Fe, Al, K, Ca, ...) were also analysed in order to identify the sources of the deposited particles.                                                

For most of the analysed elements, the elemental compositions of PM10 and dust deposit are consistent and the dust samples composition reveals a seasonal change. During the dry season, the dust composition is similar in Niger and Senegal. During the wet season, mineral dust in Niger exhibits a typical signature of sahelian soils (i.e., enriched in Fe and depleted in Ca) while in Senegal dust composition suggests a regional source enriched in Ca. The analysis of the soluble and insoluble fraction of dust deposition allows to estimate the total annual amount of P, N and C deposited on Sahelian soil.

How to cite: Marecar, R., Marticorena, B., Bergametti, G., Galy-Lacaux, C., Losno, R., Rajot, J. L., Chevaillier, S., Feron, A., Triquet, S., and Dias-Alves, M.: Nutrient inputs to sahelian soil by atmospheric dust deposition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4891, 2022.

EGU22-4989 | Presentations | AS3.10

Statistical analysis of multi-annual time series of atmospheric mineral dust content in the Sahel. 

Alban Lhotte, Beatrice Marticorena, Adriana Coman, Gilles Bergametti, Jean Louis Rajot, Anais Féron, and Cécile Gaimoz

Mineral dust has radiative and biogeochemical impacts, affects human health and soil fertility. The mineral dust cycle, i.e., dust emission, transport and deposition depends on meteorological parameters, in particular surface wind speed and precipitation. Climate change has lead to measurable change in surface temperature and precipitation regimes in the Sahel (e.g., Panthou et al., 2018) and is also expected to modify the surface winds that controls dust emissions and transport. 

Since 2006, mineral dust is monitored in the Sahel by the stations of the INDAAF network (https://indaaf.obs-mip.fr/). We used the PM10 surface concentrations and the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the AERONET network measured in Cinzana (Mali) and Banizoumbou (Niger) to detect possible changes in the Sahelian atmospheric dust content. The Angstrom exponent is used to select situations where mineral dust is the dominant contributor to the AOD. PM10 concentrations and AOD are significantly correlated but have distinct seasonal cycles, with a ratio PM10/AOD peaking in August.

No clear trend on the annual and seasonal mean concentrations or AODs has been identified. When subtracting the mean seasonal cycle to the monthly median PM10 concentration we observe a slight decrease of the residuals  in Cinzana (Mali) but no trend in the AOD. No correlation was found between the AOD or the PM10 concentrations and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index but the PM10 concentration tends to increase with the Sahelian drought index.  For most of the years, the PM10 concentrations and AODs are lower when the maximum of the vegetation cover of the previous year (represented by satellite Normalized Vegetation Index) is higher. This may reflect the protective effect of the dry vegetation residues on dust emission. These results suggest that, for the measurement period (2006-2019), the variability of the dust content is mainly due to the seasonal cycle and that the year to year variability is so large that no trends can be detected. Longer time series, with a better temporal sampling, seem to be necessary to have a chance to detect a significant change.

How to cite: Lhotte, A., Marticorena, B., Coman, A., Bergametti, G., Rajot, J. L., Féron, A., and Gaimoz, C.: Statistical analysis of multi-annual time series of atmospheric mineral dust content in the Sahel., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4989, 2022.

EGU22-5258 | Presentations | AS3.10

Impacts of mineral dust on soils and vegetation at Lù’àn Mân (Kluane Lake), Yukon Territory). 

Sophie Pouillé, Julie Talbot, and James King

Dust is a major aerosol in the atmosphere. Atmospheric dust originates from human activities or natural processes and the deposition of dust affects several ecological and biogeochemical processes. Lù’àn Mân (61°13’03’’ N, 138°37’34’’ W) is located between the Ruby Ranges on the east and the Kluane Ranges in the St. Elias mountains on the west, and on the traditional lands of Kluane, Champagne-Ashihik, and White River First Nations. Kaskawulsh Glacier, located 25 km from the A’ą̈y Chù (formerly the Slims River) delta, began to retreat in the nineteenth century and this retreat accelerated in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. In 2016, Slims Lake had partially drained, leading the water to be re-routed from A’ ą̈y Chù into Kaskawulsh River. Therefore, the level of Lù’àn Mân fell, and the drying of the riverbed became an important source of aeolian sediments and important dust storms were observed. We studied dust and trace elements deposition in the area in lichens and soils. The objective of this study was to determine the impacts of dust deposition on trace elements concentrations in vegetation and soils along a deposition gradient. To do this, we sampled lichens (Peltigera canina) and soils at sixty sites in the zone affected by the dust storms. We analyzed six trace elements (Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Pb) by ICP-MS. The results showed that the sites close to the delta had higher trace element concentrations than the sites 10 and 20 km away.

How to cite: Pouillé, S., Talbot, J., and King, J.: Impacts of mineral dust on soils and vegetation at Lù’àn Mân (Kluane Lake), Yukon Territory)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5258, 2022.

EGU22-5262 | Presentations | AS3.10

Key chemical characteristics of cryoconite sediments from Bezengi glacier and local mountain soils in the Caucasus mountains, Russia 

Ivan Kushnov, Evgeny Abakumov, Alyona Lakhtionova, Rustam Tembotov, and Sebastian Zubrzycki

Cryoconite is a dark-colored supraglacial dust which may be found in polar and mountain regions in the world. These sediments represent a combination of mineral particles, black carbon and organic matter. Cryoconite is considered as a microbial hotspot on an uninhabited surface of glaciers as well as material which influence the level of albedo. Due to relatively similar microbiological and physicochemical features of cryoconite it could take part in development of primary soils. This is important because of current rapid deglaciation in the Caucasus region which will intensify due to ongoing climate change.

The purpose of this research is to study physicochemical features of cryoconite, other types of sediments and cryoconite derived periglacial soils in Caucasus region, Kabardino-Balkarian republic as well as local Chernozems. Samples of cryoconite, moraines and mudflows were collected at Bezengi Glacier, the largest valley glacier at the Caucasus mountains. Cryoconite derived soils were collected in the adjacent Khulamo-Bezengi Gorge; Chernozems and fresh mudflow material were sampled at Baksan Gorge. Soil acidity (H2O, CaCl2), total organic carbon (TOC), basal respiration values and particle-size distribution were determined under laboratory conditions.

Almost all samples of materials from the Bezengi Glacier as well as Chernozems were characterized by a neutral reaction, while some samples of mountain soils of the Khulamo-Bezengi Gorge were characterized as slightly acidic and acidic, especially with regard to exchangeable acidity. Basal respiration values range from 2.20 mg of CO2 per day in fresh mudflow to 35.09 mg of CO2 per day in the upper horizon of mountain soils. In general, relatively high values of basal respiration were typical for mountain soils, which also has been observed in cryoconite from cracks and holes due to high amount of easily accessible organic matter. Most of cryoconite and moraines from the Bezengi Glacier were characterized by a low content of organic carbon (about 0.10%), while in the upper horizons of mountain soils these values were the highest (up to 7.54%) due to input of cryoconite material in soils through water streams in the warm period of the year.

Cryoconite and moraines were characterized by the predominance of coarse earth fraction while soils were characterized by the dominance of fine earth material. The study of particle-size of cryoconites and other materials from the Bezengi Glacier showed the dominance of the sand fraction (d=0.05-1mm). Fresh mudslides from the Baksan Gorge and mountain soils of the Khulamo-Bezengi Gorge were characterized in the same way. Chernozems of the Baksan Gorge were characterized by a high content of silt and clay fractions, which makes it possible to classify them as clay and clay loam.

This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project No 19-05-50107 “The role of microparticles of organic carbon in degradation of ice cover of polar regions of the Earth”.

How to cite: Kushnov, I., Abakumov, E., Lakhtionova, A., Tembotov, R., and Zubrzycki, S.: Key chemical characteristics of cryoconite sediments from Bezengi glacier and local mountain soils in the Caucasus mountains, Russia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5262, 2022.

EGU22-5364 | Presentations | AS3.10

Monitoring present-day Saharan dust at sea 

Jan-Berend Stuut, Catarina Guerreiro, Geert-Jan Brummer, and Michèlle van der Does

Mineral dust plays an important role in the ocean’s carbon cycle through the input of nutrients and metals which potentially fertilise phytoplankton, and by ballasting organic matter from the surface ocean to the sea floor. However, time series and records of open-ocean dust deposition fluxes are sparse. Here, we present a series of Saharan dust collected  between 2015 and 2020 by dust-collecting buoys that are monitoring dust in the equatorial North Atlantic Ocean as well as by moored sediment traps at the buoys' positions at ~21°N/21°W and ~11°N/23°W. We present dust-flux data as well as particle-size distribution data, and make a comparison of the dust collected from the atmosphere at the ocean surface with the dust settling through the ocean and intercepted by the submarine sediment traps. See: www.nioz.nl/dust

How to cite: Stuut, J.-B., Guerreiro, C., Brummer, G.-J., and van der Does, M.: Monitoring present-day Saharan dust at sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5364, 2022.

Aeolian river dust has been one of the significant local air quality concerns in central and southern Taiwan for a long time. Aeolian river dust is not only affecting local visibility and air quality but also causing adverse health effects. It has been demonstrated that long-term exposure to PM10, even the low-level concentrations, may induce adverse health effects such as pulmonary, respiratory diseases and even death. Moreover, Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) indicated nine river-dust events occurring in western Taiwan between 1994 and 2017. However, due to global climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as droughts, are increasing significantly, which may contribute to the occurrence of river dust events. Furthermore, in Taiwan, most studies have only focused on the Asian dust storms transported from China, while the spatial-temporal characterization and health implication of river dust events is still not widely understood. Therefore, in this study, to explore the causes and effects of river dust in Taiwan, we mainly analyze the PM10 concentration, relevant hydro-meteorological factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and river water level), drought events, and medical data of respiratory diseases by using time-frequency analysis. Time-frequency analysis is a tool that allows us to investigate the characteristic time scale and energy distribution of the signals since the signals are most likely to be both nonlinear and nonstationary, which cannot be adaptively analyzed by traditional data-analysis methods such as Fourier transform. Thus, the method of improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) is introduced in this study to adaptively decompose hydro-meteorological time series and medical data into their intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a trend. Moreover, the time-dependent intrinsic correlation method (TDIC) is introduced to calculate the running correlation coefficient between two IMFs with the sliding window in different time scales. After the ICEEMDAN and TDIC work, the correlation between river dust and relevant hydro-meteorological factors can be identified. The impact of frequency and intensity of droughts on river dust events in Taiwan can be explored, and then the association between respiratory diseases and river dust can be determined. It is hoped that the results of this study can assist in promoting the related air pollution policies in protecting residents and reducing the risk of disaster to people, particularly during droughts when most of the river dust events prevail.

How to cite: Chen, C.-K. and Tsai, C. W.: Aeolian River Dust in Central and Southern Taiwan Rivers: Spatial-Temporal Characterization and Public Health Implication, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7031, 2022.

EGU22-7041 | Presentations | AS3.10

Direct radiative effects of an intense dust episode over the Mediterranean Basin (16-18 June 2016) 

Maria Gavrouzou, Nikos Hatzianastassiou, Marios-Bruno Korras-Carraca, Christos Lolis, Christos Matsoukas, Nikos Mihalopoulos, and Ilias Vardavas

Perturbation of the Earth’s radiation budget is a key factor for climate change. Such perturbations are caused either from changes in the incoming solar radiation at the top of atmosphere (TOA), i.e. astronomical changes, or from modifications in the absorbed and scattered solar radiation within the Earth-atmosphere system. It is known that the current climate change is mainly attributed to greenhouse gases and aerosols. However, opposite to the achieved significant improvement of our knowledge of the role of greenhouse gases, there is still high uncertainty in the estimations of the aerosol radiative effect, due to their high spatial and temporal variability and complex and changing physical, chemical and optical properties.

Dust Aerosols (DA) is a major contributor of the global aerosol burden, while they modify the Earth’s radiation budget through the absorption and scattering of solar radiation and the absorption and re-emission of terrestrial radiation. Such dust-radiation interactions are known as Direct Radiation Effect (DRE) and generally result in a shortwave cooling effect and a smaller longwave heating effect both at the Top of Atmosphere (TOA) and the Earth’s surface. However, these radiative effects vary significantly in space and time, depending on the DA physical and optical properties, as well as on the underlying surface reflectivity or their vertical position relative to clouds, resulting in changes of the magnitude or even the sign of DREs. These dust-radiation interactions are expected to be maximized when the DA loads and the available solar radiation amounts are high. Therefore, the study of DREs under episodic dust conditions over areas such as the climatically sensitive and threatened Mediterranean Basin (MB), especially on a three-dimensional basis, is of primary importance. This becomes even more challenging when the study involves spectral detailed radiative transfer models (RTMs) and three-dimensionally resolved aerosol optical and atmospheric properties.

Here, all-sky DRE of DA is estimated during a spatially and temporally extended Dust Aerosol Episode Case (DAEC) took place from 16 to 18 June 2016 over the MB. The studied DAEC is identified using a satellite algorithm, which uses aerosol optical properties. The dust DREs are computed using 3-D dust optical properties, namely dust optical depth, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, and cloud (i.e., cloud amount, optical depth and top pressure) and other atmospheric properties from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) as input data to the FORTH (Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas) spectral radiative transfer model. The model runs, with and without DA, on a 3-hourly temporal and 0.5˚×0.625˚ horizontal spatial resolution for the 4-day period from 15 to 18 June 2016. The RTM output includes upwelling and downwelling solar fluxes, as well as DREs, at TOA, at the surface, and at 50 levels in the atmosphere. The vertical and horizontal variation of DA DREs are computed by producing and examining the respective DRE cross-sections, and finally the heating rates caused by the evolving dust episode are estimated in order to yield the radiative effect of dust on the dynamics of the Mediterranean atmosphere.

How to cite: Gavrouzou, M., Hatzianastassiou, N., Korras-Carraca, M.-B., Lolis, C., Matsoukas, C., Mihalopoulos, N., and Vardavas, I.: Direct radiative effects of an intense dust episode over the Mediterranean Basin (16-18 June 2016), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7041, 2022.

EGU22-7117 | Presentations | AS3.10

Fingerprints of provenance in atmospheric dust collected at Granada city (Southern Iberian Peninsula). 

Alberto Molinero-García, Juan Manuel Martín-García, María Virginia Fernández-González, and Rafael Delgado

Dust in the Earth´s atmosphere and deposition rates are both increasing in last decades. The south of Iberian Peninsula is deeply affected by air masses coming from Africa, one of the largest sources of atmospheric dust in the world (50%–70% of total emissions worldwide). Granada city (south of the Iberian Peninsula) has one of Spain’s highest atmospheric pollution levels (including particulate matter). African dust intrusion should be considered in the Iberian Peninsula because of the proximity of the Sahara Desert. Dust properties allows for a hypothesis on dust-provenance and dust-origin. Our study characterised atmospheric dust collected in Granada city during three monthly periods: 4PA (2012), 16PA (2013), and 28PA (2014). The main goal was to determine dust characteristics and genesis using a set of different techniques. The backward trajectories study separated the samples, according to their Saharan influence, into two groups: a) scarce influence (sample 16PA, 6% of days with Saharan influence); b) greater influence (samples 4PA and 28PA, ≈30% of days with Saharan influence). The two groups was confirmed by all the properties analysed, namely, PM10 concentration, deposition rates, grain size, mineralogy, and elemental composition (minor, including rare earth elements). Our samples showed similarities with soils from the Iberian Peninsula and other atmospheric dust collected in Granada. A remarkable discover was that particle morphology and surface microtextures on atmospheric quartz also verified the grouping. A principal component analysis of the quartz shape parameters insists on the differentiation of these groups, therefore we propose, as a fingerprint of provenance, the morphoscopy of atmospheric quartz grains (a main component of atmospheric dust).

How to cite: Molinero-García, A., Martín-García, J. M., Fernández-González, M. V., and Delgado, R.: Fingerprints of provenance in atmospheric dust collected at Granada city (Southern Iberian Peninsula)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7117, 2022.

EGU22-7852 | Presentations | AS3.10

Recent dust modeling developments in the ECMWF IFS in support to CAMS 

Samuel Remy, Zak Kipling, and Johannes Flemming

The Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of ECMWF is core of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) to provide global analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition, including reactive gases, as well as aerosol and greenhouse gases. Desert dust is simulated globally in three size bins. This system has been extended in an experimental version to prognostically simulate twelve mineralogical components of dust, each of them in three size bins. The chemical composition of dust can be derived from the mineralogical information, which allows for comparison against surface observations, notable of Iron. Each of the dust mineralogical component uses specific optical properties.

Four years of dust simulated global mineralogical and chemical composition have been produced. Iron from dust have been compared against observations of surface concentration worldwide and against simulations from the atmospheric iron model intercomparison organized by the Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP). Both evaluations gave satisfactory results. Surface concentration of other dust chemical components have been evaluated against surface observations other US and Europe.

Simulation of the dust mineralogy allows for a better representation of the geographical variation in dust absorption, especially depending on the simulated burden of the most absorbing species, hematite and goethite. While this variability cannot yet be represented in the optical properties of the dust species used operationally within CAMS, the climatology of dust mineralogy helped to derive new dust optical properties in the visible part of the spectrum. It also provided a degree of regional information about dust size distribution at emission, which has been implemented in the IFS. These two developments, together with an update of the dust source function, led to a significant improvement in the skill of the IFS system for dust related parameters. They have been included in the next operational upgrade of the operational global CAMS system, cycle 48R1, which is planned in late 2022.

How to cite: Remy, S., Kipling, Z., and Flemming, J.: Recent dust modeling developments in the ECMWF IFS in support to CAMS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7852, 2022.

The formation of the ‘Aralkum’ desert in Central Asia, as a consequence of the severe desiccation of the Aral Sea since the 1960s, has created a major new source of dust aerosol in the region. Recently dried lakebeds can be efficient dust sources, due to the availability of readily erodible sediments, and as a dry lakebed with an area of over 60,000 km2 exposed to wind erosion the Aralkum has become a significant driver of dust storms in the region. However due to a paucity of ground-based remote sensing sites in Central Asia it is difficult to quantify the behaviour and consequences of dust activity in the region.

 

Using the dust transport model COSMO-MUSCAT we perform a one-year simulation of dust emission from the Aralkum and other desiccating lakes in Central Asia, exploring the resultant dust emission and transport patterns and assessing the viability of measuring such dust using remote sensing techniques. Making use of the Global Surface Water dataset (produced by the Copernicus Programme) in order to define the surface water coverage in various epochs, we make estimates of dust emissions for the Central Asian and Middle Eastern region under three scenarios: 1) the ‘Past’, representative of water coverage in the 1980s; 2) the ‘Present’, representative of water coverage in the 2010s; and 3) the ‘Aralkum’ scenario, representing only dust emissions from the present-era Aralkum.

 

In the Present scenario we estimate that the Aralkum area (here considered as 43-47°N, 58-62°E) emitted 27.1 Tg of dust over the course of a year from March 2015 to March 2016, while in the Past scenario it emitted 14.3 Tg. However ~68% of these Aralkum emissions occurred when the cloud cover was > 95%, raising questions as to the extent to which dust storm activity from the Aralkum is measurable by standard remote sensing techniques. Exploring the patterns of wind direction and dust emission, we find that of the 27.1 Tg of dust emitted by the Aralkum during the Present scenario, 14.5 Tg were driven by westerly winds, and as a result of this the longest transport pathways are simulated to be to the east. This is in contrast to several previous studies (during previous years) of Aralkum dust which have shown more typical easterly and north-easterly dust emission patterns. Analysis of ERA5 wind data over a 15-year period reveals that there is a high degree of interannual variability as to the direction of the strongest surface winds over the Aralkum, and hence the directions of emitted dust will also vary substantially from year to year.

How to cite: Banks, J., Heinold, B., and Schepanski, K.: Modelling of the spatial and temporal patterns of dust storms emitted from the Aralkum (the former Aral Sea) in Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8438, 2022.

EGU22-9121 | Presentations | AS3.10

High-resolution mineral dust modeling 

Martina Klose, Tabea Unser, Sara Basart, Oriol Jorba, Francesco Benincasa, Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando

Dust emissions are linked with wind forces through a non-linear relationship. As a result, small errors in modelled wind speed lead to large errors in modelled dust emission. Dust models usually show satisfactory behaviour when dust outbreaks are caused by synoptic-scale weather systems. In contrast, smaller-scale dust events, e.g. haboobs or dust devils, are often unresolved at typical model resolutions and are hence unrepresented, in particular in coarse-grid global models. Haboobs are among the most important meteorological dust injection processes in the Sahara and Sahel in summer, both in terms of cumulative duration and intensity. The lack of haboobs or other unrepresented dust events likely leads to biases in the amount, spatial distribution, and seasonal variability of global dust emission and loading.

Here we present results of a high-resolution (~ 3 km), convection-permitting simulation for the year 2012 over northern Africa and the Middle East with the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (MONARCH). In contrast to previous studies, our simulations do not only contain meteorological variables at high resolution, but also include a full representation of the dust cycle. We assess the impact of resolution on the spatiotemporal dust patterns compared to observations and model simulations at coarser resolution. We also identify haboobs in the high-resolution simulation and assess their properties, such as occurrence frequency, duration, size/intensity, to investigate how realistically they are represented. 

How to cite: Klose, M., Unser, T., Basart, S., Jorba, O., Benincasa, F., Pantillon, F., Knippertz, P., and Pérez García-Pando, C.: High-resolution mineral dust modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9121, 2022.

EGU22-9188 | Presentations | AS3.10

Spatiotemporal characteristics of Dust Aerosol Episodes over Asia and Caspian Sea based on contemporary climatological satellite data 

Petros Belimezis, Nikos Hatzianastassiou, Maria Gavrouzou, and Marios-Bruno Korras-Carraca

The wide region of Asia is one of the most densely populated places of the Earth, hosting a large percentage of the Εarth's population. Thus, changes in climate and weather conditions affect the lives of many people. In Asia, there are many desert areas, from which large amounts of Dust Aerosols (DA) are emitted into the atmosphere, where they remain suspended from a few hours up to several days. DA are able to travel thousands of miles away from their source areas, among which the largest ones are the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts in Central & East Asia and the Tar Desert in the Indian subcontinent. Apart from them, there are also other smaller deserts in Asia, i.e. Badain Jaran, Tengger, which also contribute significant amounts of DA. Furthermore, the Aralkum, Kyzylkum and Karakum areas East of the Caspian Sea contribute high dust loadings, too.

DA is a major contributor of aerosol burden in the Earth’s atmosphere, significantly affecting weather and climate conditions, through various interactions with radiation and clouds, while also deteriorating air quality and causing a series of health problems. DA alter the energy balance of the Earth-Atmosphere system, as they absorb and scatter primarily the solar, but also the thermal infrared radiation, thus influencing climate from the local to regional and global scales. Besides, DA act as effective Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) or Ice Nuclei (IN), modifying cloud albedo and coverage, as well as the produced precipitation. All these dust effects are intensified under Dust Aerosol Episodes (DAEs), i.e. conditions of unusually high dust loadings, which occur every year with varying frequency and intensity, but with distinct seasonal and spatial characteristics. DAEs are originally determined on, and refer to, a pixel level, whilst days with an extended spatial coverage of DAEs are named Dust Aerosol Episode Days (DAEDs). Finally, series of consequent DAEDs constitute Dust Aerosol Episode Cases (DAECs), which are spatiotemporally extended and intense dust episodes that deserve to be identified and studied in areas like Asia.

In the present study, a satellite algorithm is used to identify DAEDs over Asia and the Caspian Sea, aiming to determine their spatial and temporal distribution emphasizing their frequency of occurrence and the associated dust loadings. The algorithm uses as input daily spectral Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Aerosol Index (AI) data from MODIS C6.1 and OMI OMAERUV databases, respectively, spanning the 16-year period from 2005 to 2020. It operates on a daily basis and 1deg x 1deg pixel level and detects the presence of DA by applying appropriate thresholds on Ångström Exponent (AE) (calculated using spectral AOD from MODIS) and AI. Subsequently, the algorithm determines the occurrence of DAEDs and DAECs, yielding their frequency of occurrence, as well as the associated dust optical depth (DOD) on monthly and annual timescales. Thus, the algorithm outputs enable to build a climatology of spatiotemporally extended Asian dust episodes, as well as to derive their year to year variability and tendencies over the 16-year study period.

How to cite: Belimezis, P., Hatzianastassiou, N., Gavrouzou, M., and Korras-Carraca, M.-B.: Spatiotemporal characteristics of Dust Aerosol Episodes over Asia and Caspian Sea based on contemporary climatological satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9188, 2022.

EGU22-9808 | Presentations | AS3.10

Daylight Promotes a Transient Uptake of SO2 by Icelandic Volcanic Dust 

Jerome Lasne, Darya Urupina, Elena Maters, Pierre Delmelle, Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Manolis Romanias, and Frederic Thevenet

Volcanic eruptions release large amounts of ash in the atmosphere, accounting for 5 - 7.5% of the total primary aerosol emission. The accompanying outgassing emits mostly water, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide (SO2). During the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano, an average SO2 mixing ratio of 40 ppb was measured in the plume [1]. Volcanic areas such as Iceland are very active aeolian regions; as a consequence, 30 to 40 Tg of previously deposited Icelandic volcanic dust are re-suspended by winds annually [2]. In this environment, SO2 can interact with volcanic dust (v-dust) in the presence of water vapour and UV light. Assessing the heterogeneous interaction of SO2 with the surface of v-dust under UV-irradiation is therefore of crucial importance to understand its budget. Moreover, the quantification of SO2 uptake by v-dust is necessary to understand the global SO2 cycle, and to implement models with laboratory data characterizing heterogeneous processes [3].

 

To this aim, we have investigated the interaction of SO2 with the surface of natural Icelandic v-dust samples with laboratory experiments [4,5]. A Coated-Wall Flow Tube reactor allowed determination of the steady-state uptake (γSS) and of the transient number of SO2 molecules taken up by v-dust (NS) in a broad range of relative humidity (0.1%<RH<72%) and irradiance (JNO2 = 0-4.5×10-3 s-1) values. Interestingly, γSS values are the same in the dark and under UV-irradiation. NS values however, largely increase under UV-irradiation, and with RH. Moreover, the amplification factor NS,UV/NS,dark increases linearly with: (i) the surface Ti concentration, (ii) the photon flux, and (iii) RH. These results reveal the importance of the heterogeneous photo-enhanced reactivity of SO2 on natural v-dust samples, and advocate for a better inclusion of these processes in atmospheric models.

 

1 Heue et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 2973 (2011)

2 Arnalds et al., Aeolian Res. 20, 176 (2016)

3 Maters et al., J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. 122, 10077 (2017)

4 Urupina et al., Atmos. Environ. 217, 116942 (2019)

5 Lasne et al., Env. Sci. Atm., in revision

How to cite: Lasne, J., Urupina, D., Maters, E., Delmelle, P., Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P., Romanias, M., and Thevenet, F.: Daylight Promotes a Transient Uptake of SO2 by Icelandic Volcanic Dust, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9808, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9808, 2022.

EGU22-10122 | Presentations | AS3.10

Atmospheric phosphorus characterization by 31P-NMR during dust events and bioavailability implications 

Kalliopi Violaki, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Claudia Esther Avalos, Laura Pivetau, and Athanasios Nenes

Phosphorus is a critical nutrient affecting primary productivity in large areas of oceanic oligotrophic and ultraoligotrophic ecosystems. The principal source of externally supplied inorganic-P in such ecosystems is the atmosphere with dust considered as an important source. However, recent work showed that organic-P originating from bioaerosols and dust can supply as much bioavailable P as inorganic P in dust, and is thus critical for primary productivity. The presence of organic-P in atmospheric samples is typically inferred by subtraction of the amount of inorganic phosphorus from the total amount of phosphorus. At present, there is no direct method for organic-P determination. Direct speciation methods point to important sources (e.g., phospholipids from bioaerosol), but cannot account for the total amount of P in organic from. There is a need therefore to develop a method to directly identify P that are associated with organic compounds. Nuclear magnetic resonance (31P-NMR) spectroscopy can provide such a capability, as it has proven to be a powerful analytical tool for the molecular characterization of organic-P in marine plankton, sinking particles, high molecular weight dissolved organic matter and sediment. The 31P-NMR technique, however, has never been applied to atmospheric samples and is the focus of this study.

Here we analyze Total Suspended atmospheric Particles (TSP) collected during dust events (n=5) in the eastern Mediterranean by using a high-volume air sampler. These particles were then analyzed using magic angle spinning solid-state 31P-NMR. The results showed the typical functional groups in P speciation which were: orthophosphate and monophosphate esters sharing the same chemical shift (H3PO4 and RH2-PO4), phosphate diesters (R1R2 HPO4) and pyrophosphate (H4P2O7). No phosphonates were detected (C-P bond) in TSP samples. Monophosphate esters and diesters are mainly found in nucleotides and their derivatives (e.g., DNA, RNA, AMP, ADP, and ATP), phospholipids and flame retardants (OPEs), and as such they constitute the majority of atmospheric organic-P. The above-mentioned P-organic compounds have C-O-P bonds therefore they are easily hydrolysable in the marine environment by the alkaline phosphatase enzyme providing an important source of P in aquatic ecosystems. Finally, the results showed that the amount of organic-P estimated colorimetrically is about equal to that estimated by 31P NMR indicating that the latter technique can be successfully employed in atmospheric studies for P speciation.

How to cite: Violaki, K., Panagiotopoulos, C., Avalos, C. E., Pivetau, L., and Nenes, A.: Atmospheric phosphorus characterization by 31P-NMR during dust events and bioavailability implications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10122, 2022.

EGU22-10655 | Presentations | AS3.10

The role of High Latitude Dust in changing climate: Severe dust storm observations in Iceland and Antarctica in 2020-2021 

Pavla Dagsson Waldhauserova, Outi Meinander, Slobodan Nickovic, Bojan Cvetkovic, Ana Vukovic, Beatrice Moroni, Jan Kavan, Kamil Laska, Jean-Baptiste Renard, Nathalie Burdova, and Olafur Arnalds

High Latitude Dust (HLD) contributes 5% to the global dust budget and active HLD sources cover > 500,000 km2. Potential areas with high HLD emission are calculated to cover >1 670 000 km(Meinander et al., in review). In Iceland, desert areas cover about 44,000 km2, but the hyperactive dust hot spots of area < 1,000 km2 are the most dust productive sources. Recent studies have shown that Icelandic dust travelled about 2,000 km to Svalbard and about 3,500 km to Balkan Peninsula. It estimated that about 7% of Icelandic dust can reach the high Arctic (N>80°). HLD was recognized as an important climate driver in Polar Regions in the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate in 2019.

Long-term dust in situ measurements conducted in Arctic deserts of Iceland and Antarctic deserts of Eastern Antarctic Peninsula in 2018-2021 revealed some of the most severe dust storms in terms of particulate matter (PM) concentrations. While one-minute PM10 concentrations is Iceland exceeded 50,000 μgm-3, ten-min PM10 means in James Ross Island, Antarctica exceeded 120 μgm-3. The largest HLD field campaign was organized in Iceland in 2021 where 11 international institutions with > 70 instruments and 12 m tower conducted dust measurements (Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Darmstadt, Berlin and Karlsruhe Universities, NASA, Czech University of Life sciences, Agricultural University of Iceland etc.). Preliminary results will be shown.

Icelandic dust has impacts on atmosphere, cryosphere, marine and terrestrial environments. It decreases albedo of both glacial ice/snow as well as mixed phase clouds via reduction in supercooled water content. There is also an evidence that volcanic dust particles scavenge efficiently SO2 and NO2 to form sulphites/sulfates and nitrous acid. High concentrations of volcanic dust and Eyjafjallajokull ash were associated with up to 20% decline in ozone concentrations in 2010. In marine environment, Icelandic dust with high total Fe content (10-13 wt%) and the initial Fe solubility of 0.08-0.6%, can impact primary productivity and nitrogen fixation in the N Atlantic Ocean, leading to additional carbon uptake.

There is also first HLD operational dust forecast for Icelandic dust available at the World Meteorological Organization Sand/Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (WMO SDS-WAS) at https://sds-was.aemet.es/forecast-products/dust-forecasts/icelandic-dust-forecast. In 2020-2021, a total of 71 long-range dust events was identified from Iceland reaching Faroe Islands, United Kingdom, Ireland, and Scandinavia. HLD research community is growing and Icelandic Aerosol and Dust Association (IceDust) has 100 members from 47 institutions in 18 countries (https://icedustblog.wordpress.com, including references to this abstract).

 

Reference

Meinander, O., Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P., et al.: Newly identified climatically and environmentally significant high latitude dust sources, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-963, in review, 2021.

How to cite: Dagsson Waldhauserova, P., Meinander, O., Nickovic, S., Cvetkovic, B., Vukovic, A., Moroni, B., Kavan, J., Laska, K., Renard, J.-B., Burdova, N., and Arnalds, O.: The role of High Latitude Dust in changing climate: Severe dust storm observations in Iceland and Antarctica in 2020-2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10655, 2022.

EGU22-11209 | Presentations | AS3.10

Profiling mineral dust with UAV-based in-situ instrumentation (Cyprus Fall campaign 2021) 

Maria Kezoudi, Alkistis Papetta, Franco Marenco, Christos Keleshis, Konrad Kandler, Joe Girdwood, Chris Stopford, Frank Wienhold, Gao Ru-Shan, and Jean Sciare

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-sensor systems allow for cost-effective vertically-resolved in-situ atmospheric observations within the lower troposphere. Taking advantage of the private runway and dedicated airspace of the Unmanned Systems Research Laboratory (USRL; https://usrl.cyi.ac.cy/) of the Cyprus Institute in Orounda (Nicosia, Cyprus), an intensive campaign focusing on mineral dust observations was conducted between 18 October and 18 November 2021. This, involved UAV flights (36 in total) and ground-based active and passive remote-sensing observations during two distinct dust outbreaks over Cyprus.

The first dust event occurred between 25 October and 1 November 2021, and HYSPLIT back-trajectories revealed that the observed air masses were mainly originated from NE Sahara (Libya, Egypt). The second dust event was observed from 13 to 18 November 2021. HYSPLIT back-trajectories revealed that the observed air masses at the beginning of the second event were originated from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Syria), but the air mass origin switched to NW Saharan dust midways through the event. The Aerosol Optical Depth at 500-nm as measured by our sun-photometers was found to be above 0.2 all the time, and in some days reached up to 0.5. The observed aerosol layers were found to be extending from ground up to 5 km Above Sea Level (ASL).

This study presents results of the vertical aerosol structure/height-resolved information of each dust event from its arrival to its departure as observed by instruments on-board the UAVs including: a pair of Universal Cloud and Aerosol Sounding System (UCASS) Optical Particle Counters (OPCs), Printed Optical Particle Spectrometer (POPS) OPC, Compact Optical Backscatter AerosoL Detector (COBALD) and filter samplers.

How to cite: Kezoudi, M., Papetta, A., Marenco, F., Keleshis, C., Kandler, K., Girdwood, J., Stopford, C., Wienhold, F., Ru-Shan, G., and Sciare, J.: Profiling mineral dust with UAV-based in-situ instrumentation (Cyprus Fall campaign 2021), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11209, 2022.

EGU22-11247 | Presentations | AS3.10

Size distribution of emitted dust in Morocco 

Cristina González-Flórez, Martina Klose, Andrés Alastuey, Sylvain Dupont, Vic Etyemezian, Adolfo González-Romero, Konrad Kandler, George Nikolich, Marco Pandolfi, Agnesh Panta, Xavier Querol, Cristina Reche, Jesús Yus-Díez, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando

Atmospheric mineral dust constitutes one of the most important aerosols in terms of mass in the global atmosphere. Dust impacts on the Earth’s climate are closely related to its physical and chemical properties, i.e. its particle size distribution (PSD), mineralogical composition, particle shape, and mixing state. Despite the knowledge acquired on dust properties over the last decades, understanding of dust particle size and composition at emission is still incomplete, partly due to the scarcity of coincident PSD measurements for emitted dust and the parent soil. In this context, the ERC project FRAGMENT (FRontiers in dust minerAloGical coMposition and its Effects upoN climaTe) conducts dust field campaigns in different regions of the world, obtaining a detailed characterization of the soil, airborne particles and meteorology. The first measurement campaign took place in September 2019 at “El Bour”, a dry lake located in the Draa River Basin at the edge of the Sahara desert in Morocco.

Here, we provide an overview of the atmospheric conditions, the dynamical parameters characterizing the structure of the near-surface boundary layer and the wind erosion events of varying intensity that occurred during the measurement period. We explore the temporal variability of: (1) the size-resolved dust concentrations measured by two optical particle counters placed at 1.8 and 3.5 m height, (2) the associated diffusive dust flux calculated through the gradient method, (3) the measured saltation flux and (4) the sandblasting efficiency. We also evaluate the relationships of these variables with friction velocity and atmospheric stability. Finally, we analyse the PSDs of emitted dust concentrations and diffusive flux, and investigate their variability under different meteorological conditions.

How to cite: González-Flórez, C., Klose, M., Alastuey, A., Dupont, S., Etyemezian, V., González-Romero, A., Kandler, K., Nikolich, G., Pandolfi, M., Panta, A., Querol, X., Reche, C., Yus-Díez, J., and Pérez García-Pando, C.: Size distribution of emitted dust in Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11247, 2022.

EGU22-11308 | Presentations | AS3.10

Year-round optical properties of atmospheric mineral dust particles at Dome C (East Antarctica): radiative and paleoclimatic implications 

Marco Potenza, Barbara Delmonte, Massimo Del Guasta, and Llorenç Cremonesi

We present preliminary results from the project OPTAIR, aimed to study the optical properties of airborne particles at Concordia Station, on the East Antarctic plateau, and to assess the relationship among the optical properties of particles suspended in air and deposited by the snow. Light scattering data from single particles are collected continuously by a permanent device installed in November 2018, operating the novel Single Particle Extinction and Scattering method and some traditional scattering measurements. Data are put in correlation with LIDAR measurements, with the aim to assess the impact on past and present climate. Results from the Antarctic season 2019 will be presented, showing clear evidence of remarkable changes in the amount of particles, size and optical properties across the year. In particular, about one third of the total cumulative dust particles accumulated in one year is advected during fast dust-rich air mass subsidence events lasting a few hours. This feature is of major importance to glaciological studies based on integrated, multi-annual snow and ice samples.

How to cite: Potenza, M., Delmonte, B., Del Guasta, M., and Cremonesi, L.: Year-round optical properties of atmospheric mineral dust particles at Dome C (East Antarctica): radiative and paleoclimatic implications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11308, 2022.

EGU22-12517 | Presentations | AS3.10

On the optical properties of mineral dust in ice-cores as revealed by light scattering techniques 

Llorenç Cremonesi, Barbara Delmonte, Claudia Ravasio, Claudio Artoni, and Marco Potenza

There is much information to be derived from the airborne dust that can be found in ice cores, especially about the aerosol composition and sources, including the characteristics of the atmosphere of several thousands of years ago. There is, in fact, much still to learn about both the data that can be retrieved and how to interpret them with appropriate models. One of the most striking aspects of these tiny particles is the effect their shape alone has on their scattering and absorption properties, which translate into a contribution to the Earth radiative transfer, especially at the wavelength scale. We show that aggregates of several particles behave differently from compact particles, and non-isometric compact particles can be clearly distinguished from isometric particles as their non-sphericity increases. We report the advances in this direction based on light scattering measurements on the dust content of ice cores drilled from Dome C and Dome B in Antarctica as part of the EPICA project, and provide a physical interpretation in terms of the known models in the field of light scattering by small particles.

How to cite: Cremonesi, L., Delmonte, B., Ravasio, C., Artoni, C., and Potenza, M.: On the optical properties of mineral dust in ice-cores as revealed by light scattering techniques, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12517, 2022.

EGU22-12723 | Presentations | AS3.10

On the effect of changes in wind direction on dust aerosol concentrations in the near-surface layer 

Elena Malinovskaya, Otto Chkhetiani, and Leonid Maksimenkov

The study was carried out using observations in a 5 km long and 200-300 m wide patch of loose sands, located west of the Naryn Khuduk settlement (Russia, 2013-2021). The uniqueness of this area is determined, in particular, by the structure of the Seif dune ridges extending approximately in the latitudinal direction. We used data on concentrations of microparticles (sizes from 0.2 to 5 μm) at two levels (0.5 and 2.0 m) with multichannel registration, on concentrations of microparticles with sizes from 0.4 to 30 μm at 0.2, 0.4, 0.8, 1.6 and 3.2 m, on electric field strength.

The size distribution of microparticles, the concentrations of coarse aerosol fraction [1] are higher when the wind is tangential to the extending of dune than when it is frontal. Concentration values at heights of 20 and 40 cm exceed by several times in profiles built up to a height of 3.2 m for angles of about 10-30º with respect to dune crest compared to other wind directions.

This related to the processes of abrasion of the coarse fraction of microparticles from the newly involved large particles from the zone of the leeward slope. The presence of heavy rolling or stationary particles is confirmed by the occurrence of ripples on the surface.

The connection with the change of wind direction suggests the importance of splashing and abrasion processes when particles fall behind the leeward slope. In this context the influence of an obstacle on air flow with particles suspended in it has been studied for the Lagrangian-Eulerian model by means of the open package OpenFOAM. The particles falling on the surface in the recirculation zone behind the leeward slope created a disturbance of turbulent energy, which contributes to the intensification of the dust aerosol carry out beyond the salting layer.

Microparticles up to 0.5 μm in size, adhere to the surface of saltation. For them, the action of forces of electric nature turns out to be essential [2]. They appear in a free state at the moment of critical charge accumulation on a saltation particle under the influence of electric field created by the flux of large particles moving near the surface. Analytical estimation of the relative change in electric field strength shows a quadratic dependence on the number of generated microparticles.

At wind speeds close to the threshold value and with the wind direction close to tangential with respect to the dune crest line  the electric field strength increases. Concentrations of arid aerosol with sizes 0.2-0.4 μm increase, which is associated with faster charging of saltation particles. This is explained by participation of larger particles in the process with strengthening of tunnel effect of electric charge transfer from larger particles to smaller ones.

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation project 20-17-00214.

  • Malinovskaya E.A.et.al. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 57(5) 2021
  • Malinovskaya E.A.et.al. Doklady Earth Sciences, 502(2) 2022.

How to cite: Malinovskaya, E., Chkhetiani, O., and Maksimenkov, L.: On the effect of changes in wind direction on dust aerosol concentrations in the near-surface layer, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12723, 2022.

EGU22-12871 | Presentations | AS3.10

Application Of Geochemical Weathering Indices To Loess -Paleosol Sequences From Central Asia (Tajikistan) 

Andrea Aquino, Marco Lezzerini, Giancarlo Scardia, Charlotte Prud'Homme, Aditi Krishna Dave, Alexandra Engström Johansson, Laurent Marquer, Nosir Safaraliev, and Kathryn Fitzsimmons

Loess deposits are well known as repositories of information about climatic and environmental variations occurring over the Quaternary. Over the years, numerous weathering indices relating to the geochemical characteristics of loess sediments have been developed to provide insights into environmental changes through time. In this study, we characterize the major element chemistry of the uppermost 20 m of the Karamaidan loess deposit in Tajikistan, which spans the last full glacial cycle. We compare major element ratios (Al/Ti, Fe/Ti, and Al/Fe), together with ternary A-CN-K diagram and enrichment/depletion of the elements relative to the upper continental crust, down the Karamaidan sequence, and compare our results to other regional and supraregional loess deposits and their change through time. We investigate different weathering indices (A and B indices, PWI, bases vs. Al ratio, CIW, PIA, and YANG indices, WI-1, WI-2, and CPA and FENG) in order to identify those most applicable to our study. We compare our results magnetic susceptibility down the stratigraphic profile to derive a direct index for alteration of the deposit.

How to cite: Aquino, A., Lezzerini, M., Scardia, G., Prud'Homme, C., Dave, A. K., Engström Johansson, A., Marquer, L., Safaraliev, N., and Fitzsimmons, K.: Application Of Geochemical Weathering Indices To Loess -Paleosol Sequences From Central Asia (Tajikistan), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12871, 2022.

EGU22-13104 | Presentations | AS3.10

The observationally constrained shape distributions of atmospheric dust 

Yue Huang and Jasper F. Kok

Global aerosol models and retrieval algorithms of remote sensing products generally approximate dust aerosols as spherical or spheroidal particles. However, measurements show that dust aerosols deviate substantially from spherical and spheroidal shapes, as ratios of dust length to width (the aspect ratio) and height to width (the height‐to‐width ratio) deviate substantially from unity. Here, we quantify dust asphericity by compiling dozens of measurements of aspect ratio and height‐to‐width ratio across the globe. We find that the dust length is on average 5 times larger than the height and that aerosol models and retrieval algorithms underestimate this asphericity by a factor of ~3 to 5. We find little difference in the average shape of North African dust and Asian dust, although North African dust becomes more aspherical during transport, whereas Asian dust might become less aspherical. We further find that both aspect ratio and height-to-width ratio show little dependence on dust particle size. These findings enable simple parameterizations of dust shape distributions that can be considered approximately representative of the global population of atmospheric dust.

We use these globally representative dust shape distributions to quantify the effects of dust asphericity on deposition and optics. We find that accounting for dust asphericity increases the gravitational settling lifetime by ~20%, which helps explain the underestimation of coarse dust transport by models. We further find that, relative to the ellipsoidal dust optics accounting for realistic dust asphericity, the spherical dust optics used in models  underestimate dust mass extinction efficiency, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor for almost all dust sizes at both shortwave and longwave spectra. The ellipsoidal dust optics can reproduce the measured scattering matrix of feldspar and linear depolarization ratio substantially better than the spheroidal dust optics used in most retrieval algorithms. Thus, the globally representative dust shape distributions have a strong potential to improve global aerosol models and retrieval algorithms of remote sensing products.

How to cite: Huang, Y. and Kok, J. F.: The observationally constrained shape distributions of atmospheric dust, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13104, 2022.

EGU22-13220 | Presentations | AS3.10

A new process-based and scale-respecting dust emission scheme for global climate models 

Danny Leung, Jasper Kok, Longlei Li, Natalie Mahowald, Catherine Prigent, Gregory Okin, Martina Klose, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Laurent Menut, and David Lawrence

Desert dust is an important aerosol component that produces large uncertainties in assessments of Earth’s radiative budget and global climate change. However, current global climate model (GCM) simulations show that modeled dust poorly captures the observed dust in both spatial and temporal variability, which inhibits accurate assessments of aerosol radiative effects. Furthermore, dust emission is a local-scale process that varies on scales less than 1–10 km and thus current GCMs with typical grid-scale of > 100 km inherently have difficulties capturing dust spatial distribution and its sensitivity to local-scale meteorological variability. To tackle these problems, we develop a new dust emission scheme for GCMs that includes several more physical aeolian processes, and use the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) as a case study. First, we account for the dissipation of surface wind momentum by surface roughness elements included plants and rocks, which reduce the wind momentum exerted on the bare soil surface over deserts. The roughness of plants is a function of time-varying leaf area index (LAI), improving the sensitivity of the modeled emissions to climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Second, we account for the effects of soil particle size distribution (PSD) on dust emission threshold by implementing a realistic soil median diameter inferred from a compilation of soil PSD observations. Third, we account for intermittent dust emissions induced by boundary-layer turbulence using a recently proposed saltation parameterization, which further couples dust with boundary-layer dynamics. With more aeolian processes, CESM2 dust emission matches better in spatial variability, seasonality, and dust activation frequency when compared against dust satellite retrievals. Modeled dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) also shows better agreement in both spatial and temporal correlations with satellite-derived and ground-based AOD. Fourth, in addition to improving the description of aeolian processes, we conduct dust emission simulations across multiple grid resolutions and show that the high-resolution simulations generally produce a better dust spatial distribution. We then generate a map of correction factors to dust emissions for the coarse-gridded simulations to reduce the scale-dependency of dust emission parameterizations, and results indicate further improved agreement with dust observations for coarse-gridded CESM2. Our results suggest that including more physical processes into climate models can lessen bias, improve simulation results, and eliminate the use of empirical source functions. Therefore, our dust emission scheme could improve assessments of dust impacts on the Earth system and future climate changes.

How to cite: Leung, D., Kok, J., Li, L., Mahowald, N., Prigent, C., Okin, G., Klose, M., Pérez García-Pando, C., Menut, L., and Lawrence, D.: A new process-based and scale-respecting dust emission scheme for global climate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13220, 2022.

EGU22-13524 | Presentations | AS3.10

Paleoenvironmental implications of grain size characteristics of loess key-sites from opposite banks of the Middle Dnieper River valley (Ukraine) 

Przemysław Mroczek, Maria Łanczont, Maryna Komar, Jerzy Nawrocki, Karol Standzikowski, Beata Hołub, Oleksyi Krokhmal, and Kateryna Derevska

The loesses of central Ukraine, occurring on both sides of the submeridional-oriented Dnieper River valley, have the character of continuous patches up to 30 or even 50 meters thick. In geological exposures (mainly cliffs) they have the character of loess-palaeosol sequences, additionally separated by glacial till (Saalian), which plays an important role as a stratigraphic marker. The loess cover underlies the river sediments of the Pleistocene Dnieper terraces. A characteristic feature of the documented sequences is a clear difference in their thickness, as well as litho- and pedological formation on opposite banks of the Dnieper River.

Grain size analyses (laser and sieve) of a number of sequences on both sides of the river were conducted. The assumed constant interval was 5 cm. Based on the measurements, accurate statistical characterization of the individual fractions and subfractions was developed and a number of indices were calculated that may be of great value in environmental interpretations.

Paleogeographic conclusions from sedimentological studies were focused on the characterization of depositional environments. The basic conclusion is the documented great dissimilarity of grain size characteristics of lithological units of the same age on both sides of the Dnieper valley. This reflects the different nature and high variability of environmental conditions during accumulation period. The study clearly shows that the valley was an important source of windblown silty material, but also its morphologically diverse banks were important orographic barriers for aeolian transported material. Moreover, a strong connection between the investigated aeolian sediments and the older, underlying layers of different origin – glacial and fluvial – was demonstrated.

Research carried out as part of the grant of National Science Centre, Poland as the project no. 2018/31/B/ST10/01507 entitled “Global, regional and local factors determining the palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental record in the Ukrainian loess-soil sequences along the Dnieper River Valley – from the proximal areas to the distal periglacial zone”.

How to cite: Mroczek, P., Łanczont, M., Komar, M., Nawrocki, J., Standzikowski, K., Hołub, B., Krokhmal, O., and Derevska, K.: Paleoenvironmental implications of grain size characteristics of loess key-sites from opposite banks of the Middle Dnieper River valley (Ukraine), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13524, 2022.

EGU22-1157 | Presentations | NP3.2

Evaluation of hydrological cycle intensification in response to temperature variability 

Shailendra Pratap and Yannis Markonis

As the climate warms, the hydrological cycle is expected to intensify. Also, in response to climate warming, hydrologic sensitivity is a major concern for the coming decades. Here, we aim to understand the relationship between hydroclimate and temperature variability during the past. The periods selected for investigation are the Mid-Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO), the Eemian Interglacial (EI) Stage, the Last Glacial Maximum, the Heinrich and Dansgaard–Oeschger Events, the Bølling-Allerød, the Younger Dryas, the 8.2 ka event, the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and the Little Ice Age. In general, the proxy records suggest that the hydrological cycle is intensified under warmer climate conditions and weakened over colder periods. However, the spatial signals are not uniform worldwide. For instance, during the MMCO and EI, the global temperature was higher than the pre-industrial time; some regions were wetter, (northern Eurasia and Sahara Arabian desert), while others were more arid (Argentina, Bolivia, and Africa). Therefore, the hypothesis “a warmer climate is a wetter climate” could be considered as a simplified pattern of regional changes as a result of global warming. The reason is that the water cycle response is spatiotemporally not similar. Due to its wide distribution, hydroclimate variability is difficult to quantify on a regional, continental, and global scale. In this context, investigation of paleo-hydroclimatic changes, specifically during the warm periods, could provide relevant insights into the present and future climate.

How to cite: Pratap, S. and Markonis, Y.: Evaluation of hydrological cycle intensification in response to temperature variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1157, 2022.

EGU22-1326 | Presentations | NP3.2

Widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under climate change 

David WJ Thompson and Jingyuan Li

The effects of extreme temperature events on ecosystems and society depend critically on the persistence of the event. But to-date relatively little work has systematically explored the response of such persistence to climate change. In this talk, I will explore the evidence for changes in surface temperature persistence in output from a range of numerical simulations, including large-ensembles of climate change simulations run on Earth system models and simplified models with varying representations of radiative processes and large-scale dynamics. Together, the results indicate that climate change is expected to be accompanied by widespread changes in surface temperature persistence. The changes are generally most robust over ocean areas and arise due to a seemingly broad range of physical processes. The findings point to both the robustness of widespread changes in persistence under climate change, and the critical need to better understand, simulate and constrain such changes.

How to cite: Thompson, D. W. and Li, J.: Widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1326, 2022.

EGU22-1530 | Presentations | NP3.2 | Highlight

Analyzing centennial variability in the Southern Ocean using data assimilation 

Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Zhiqiang Lyu

The agreement between simulated and reconstructed multidecadal to centennial climate variability has improved over the past decades. However, significant disagreements still exist, especially at regional scale. In the Southern Ocean, both reconstructions and climate models display large variability at those timescales but models fail in reproducing some key elements such as the centennial variability in the strength of the westerly winds inferred from various types of proxy data. Data assimilation combines in an optimal way information from proxy data and climate models. It can help in identifying the cause of such model-data mismatch by improving the reconstructions as well as by testing the compatibility of those reconstructions with model physics or between different types of proxy data. Two examples will be discussed here. The first one focuses on the shift in the westerly winds between the 14th and 16th century, showing that it is clear in reconstructions based on classical statistical methods and on data assimilation but it is not simulated in models without data assimilation. In the second example, we will discuss the deep ocean convection and open ocean formation in the Southern Ocean that induce large multi-decadal to centennial variability in some global models while it is totally absent in many others. We will check how data assimilation can be used to test the validity of the simulations and to determine which model behavior is the most realistic. 

 

How to cite: Goosse, H., Dalaiden, Q., and Lyu, Z.: Analyzing centennial variability in the Southern Ocean using data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1530, 2022.

EGU22-1585 | Presentations | NP3.2

Trend analysis of Changing Temperature over the Time Period of 1979 to 2014 in Uttarakhand, Western Himalaya, India 

Sarita Palni, Deepanshu Parashar, and Arvind Pandey

Himalayan mountain region lying in the northern part of Indian sub-continent is among those zones which bears the most ecologically sensitive environments and is also a repository of biodiversity, fresh water storage and ecosystem services. Over the last three decades, land transformation related to exploitative land uses is among the main drivers of changing snow cover, vegetation cover and productivity in western Himalayas region. In a region where field-based research is challenging due to heterogenous relief and high altitude, quantifying the changes in temperature pattern using Remote Sensing Techniques can provide essential information regarding variating trends in different elements relating to temperature. This paper studies the trend analysis of changing temperature patterns using SWAT data (1979–2014) over Uttarakhand Himalayas and its association with altitudinal gradient. This paper investigates the trends in maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) & mean (Tmean) temperatures in the annual, seasonal and monthly time-scales for 55 stations in the 5 regions of Uttarakhand’s Western Himalayan region which are categorized on the basis of elevation, from year 1979-2014. Statistical approaches are used to examine the effect of change in pattern of temperature upon the phenology of vegetation in the region under study, fresh water ecosystems, agricultural productivity, decreasing snow line & increasing tree line, change in duration of the seasons etc.

How to cite: Palni, S., Parashar, D., and Pandey, A.: Trend analysis of Changing Temperature over the Time Period of 1979 to 2014 in Uttarakhand, Western Himalaya, India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1585, 2022.

EGU22-1792 | Presentations | NP3.2

Links between intermediate ocean circulation and cryosphere dynamics during Heinrich Stadials in the NE Atlantic: a foraminiferal perspective 

Pauline Depuydt, Meryem Mojtahid, Christine Barras, Fatima Bouhdayad, and Samuel Toucanne

Understanding the interaction between ocean circulation and ice sheet dynamics is fundamental to study the rapid Quaternary climate changes that punctuate major glacial-interglacial periods. Compared to the surface and deep compartments of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), intermediate water depths during key time periods, such as Heinrich Stadials (HSs), remain poorly documented, especially in the Northeast Atlantic.

In this study, we use benthic foraminiferal assemblage data from an upper slope sediment core from the Northern Bay of Biscay to reconstruct paleoenvironmental and paleohydrological changes at ~1000m water depth, from ~35 to 14 kyr cal BP. Our results show a strong response of benthic communities to hydrodynamic changes (related to AMOC) and to instabilities of the European Ice Sheet during the last three HSs. Benthic foraminifera provide species-specific responses to the induced physico-chemical changes, in coherence with the various geochemical and sedimentological proxies documented in the area. The three HSs are characterized by the low abundance of species indicative of high-energy environments (Cibicides lobatulus and Trifarina angulosa) and the simultaneous presence of Cibicidoides pachyderma (meso-oligotrophic species) and Globobulimina spp. (anoxia-tolerant species).   This species composition suggests a slowing of the intermediate circulation during the three HSs. Nevertheless, HS1 is very distinct from HS2 and HS3 by the high presence of high-organic flux indicator species (Cassidulina carinata and Bolivina spp.) during its early phase (Early HS1). This result confirms that EIS meltwaters were much less charged in organic material derived from the continent during HS2 and HS3 than during HS1 due to the scarcer vegetation cover and partially frozen soils. Finally, benthic foraminifera depict clearly the rapid "re-ventilation" during Mid-HS2, corresponding to a response to regional glacial instabilities.

How to cite: Depuydt, P., Mojtahid, M., Barras, C., Bouhdayad, F., and Toucanne, S.: Links between intermediate ocean circulation and cryosphere dynamics during Heinrich Stadials in the NE Atlantic: a foraminiferal perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1792, 2022.

EGU22-3459 | Presentations | NP3.2 | Highlight

State-dependent effects of natural forcing on global and local climate variability 

Beatrice Ellerhoff, Moritz J. Kirschner, Elisa Ziegler, Max D. Holloway, Louise Sime, and Kira Rehfeld

Climate variability is the primary influence on climate extremes and affected by natural forcing from solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions. Global warming impacts climate variability, but there is contradictory and incomplete evidence on the spatio-temporal patterns. Strong volcanic eruptions have been suggested to reduce temperatures less in warmer climate states. However, the underlying question of state-dependent effect of natural forcing on local and global variability remains open. Moreover, there are uncertainties about the role of natural forcing in the mismatch between simulated and reconstructed local, long-term variability.  

Using a 12-member GCM ensemble with targeted boundary conditions, we present naturally-forced and equilibrium, millennium-length simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Pre-Industrial (PI). We quantify the local and global climate response to solar and volcanic forcing in the LGM and PI, and contrast variability from forced and control simulations on annual-to-multicentennial scales. We differentiate various contributions from the atmosphere, oceans, and particularly that of sea ice using a 2D energy balance model (EBM). Spectral analysis of simulated temperatures shows that global variability is predominately determined by natural forcing. Local mean spectra are more characteristic for the mean climate state and reveal a decrease in local variability with warming. The global and local response to natural forcing is robust against changes in the mean climate. Particularly, the spatial patterns of the surface climate's response to volcanic eruptions widely agree across states. Weak local differences resulted primarily from sea ice dynamics. The sea ice contribution is the strongest on interannual scales. It remains significant on decadal scales and longer, providing a key mechanism of long-term variability. We validate the simulated variability against observational and paleoclimate data. The variance obtained from proxies is increasingly larger on longer timescales compared to that from simulated time series. The inclusion of natural forcing reduces the model-data mismatch on decadal-to-multicentennial scales and, thus, provides a more accurate representation of climate variability. 

Consideration of natural forcing is therefore paramount for model-data comparison and future projections. The robust temperature response suggests that findings on the ability of models to simulate past variability should translate to future climates, and can thus help constrain variability. 

How to cite: Ellerhoff, B., Kirschner, M. J., Ziegler, E., Holloway, M. D., Sime, L., and Rehfeld, K.: State-dependent effects of natural forcing on global and local climate variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3459, 2022.

EGU22-3962 | Presentations | NP3.2

Beyond Hasselmann and Leith: The challenge of non-Markovian and fractional stochastic climate modelling 

Nicholas Wynn Watkins, Raphael Calel, Sandra Chapman, Aleksei Chechkin, Ian Ford, Rainer Klages, and David Stainforth

The stochastic energy balance models (SEBMs) pioneered by  Hasselmann and  Mitchell [1] have long been known to climate scientists to be important aids to gaining both qualitative insight and quantitative information about global mean temperatures.  SEBMs are now much more widely visible, after the award of last year’s Nobel Prize to Hasselmann, shared with Manabe and Parisi [1].

The earliest univariate SEBMs were, however, built around the simplest linear and Markovian stochastic process, and researchers have very intentionally exploited their equivalence to the Langevin equation of 1908. Although multivariate SEBMs have now been extensively studied [1,2] and provide one important route to incorporating non-Markovian memory effects into climate dynamics, my presentation will discuss the continuing value of univariate SEBMs, especially when coupled to other models. I  will also highlight how we and others (e.g. [4,5]) are going beyond the first SEBMs to incorporate more general models of temporal dependence, motivated by evidence of non-Markovian, and in particular long-ranged, memory in the climate system.  This effort has brought new and interesting challenges, both in mathematical methods and physical interpretation.

I will highlight our recent paper [3] on using a Hasselmann-type EBM to study the economic impacts of climate change and variability and our other ongoing work [6, and its updated version, 7] on  generalised (and in particular fractional) Hasselmann univariate SEBMs. I will compare our model [6,7] with Lovejoy and co-workers' FEBE [5], and discuss what the requirements are in order for such non-Markovian SEBMs to exhibit fluctuation-dissipation relations, which have been debated in the  SEBM field since the early work of Leith in the 1970s.

[1] Scientific background on the Nobel prize in physics 2021, Nobel Committee, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

[2] Franzke and O’Kane, eds. Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, CUP, 2017.

[3] Calel et al, Nature Communications, 2020.

[4] Rypdal et al, Climate, 2018.

[5] Lovejoy et al, QJRMS, 2021.

[6] Watkins et al, On Generalized Langevin Dynamics and the Modelling of Global Mean Temperature, 2021, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-67318-5_29

[7] Watkins et al, arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.06464v2.

How to cite: Watkins, N. W., Calel, R., Chapman, S., Chechkin, A., Ford, I., Klages, R., and Stainforth, D.: Beyond Hasselmann and Leith: The challenge of non-Markovian and fractional stochastic climate modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3962, 2022.

EGU22-4276 | Presentations | NP3.2

Northern Hemispheric extratropical cyclones during glacial times: impact of orbital forcing and ice sheet height 

Christoph C. Raible, Martina Messmer, Buzan Jonathan, and Russo Emmanuele

Extratropical cyclones are a major source of natural hazards in the mid latitudes as wind and precipitation extremes are associated to this weather phenomenon. Still the response of extratropical cyclones and their characteristics to strong external forcing changes is not yet fully understood. In particular, the impact of the orbital forcing as well as variations of the major ice sheets during glacial times on extratropical cyclones have not been investigated so far.  

Thus, the aim of this study is to fill this gap and to assess the impact of orbital forcing and northern hemispheric ice sheet height variations on extratropical cyclones and their characteristics during winter and summer. The main research tool is the Community Earth System Model CESM1.2. We performed a set of time slice sensitivity simulations under preindustrial (PI) conditions and for the following different glacial periods: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Marine Isotopic stage 4 (MIS4), MIS6, and MIS8. Additionally, we vary the northern hemispheric ice sheet height for all the different glacial periods by 33%, 66%, 100% and 125% of the ice sheet reconstructed for the LGM. For each of the simulations the extratropical cyclones are identified with a Lagrangian cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, which delivers a set of different cyclone characteristics, such as, cyclone frequency maps, cyclone area, central pressure, cyclone depth, precipitation associated to the extratropical cyclones as well as extremes in cyclone depth and extratropical cyclone-related precipitation. These cyclone characteristics are investigated for the winter and the summer season separately.

Preliminary results show that the extratropical cyclone tracks are shifted southwards on the Northern Hemisphere during the winter season. This shift has rather strong implication for the Mediterranean, with an increase of winter precipitation during glacial times over the western Mediterranean. The increase is modulated when changing the ice sheet height as extratropical cyclone tracks shift further south with increasing northern hemispheric ice sheet height. The orbital forcing shows a higher impact during summer, where mean precipitation is further reduced over Europe when comparing MIS4 and MIS8 with LGM. The changes in the cyclone tracks and related precipitation changes in the Mediterranean for the summer season need to be assessed. Additionally, the effect of the orbital forcing on changes in cyclone tracks and associated precipitation changes in the North Pacific must be evaluated for both seasons.

 

How to cite: Raible, C. C., Messmer, M., Jonathan, B., and Emmanuele, R.: Northern Hemispheric extratropical cyclones during glacial times: impact of orbital forcing and ice sheet height, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4276, 2022.

EGU22-4277 | Presentations | NP3.2

6000 years of winter climate variability revealed by a speleothem record from East-Central Europe 

Virgil Dragusin, Vasile Ersek, Dominik Fleitmann, Monica Ionita-Scholz, and Bogdan P. Onac

Holocene reconstructions of winter climate in East-Central Europe (ECE) are scarce, although several studies have brought more seasonal insights through the study of pollen in lake sediments, δ18O and deuterium excess from an ice cave deposit, as well as speleothem trace elements.

Here we present the δ18O record of stalagmite PU-2 from Urşilor Cave (W Romania) that could shed further light onto ECE Holocene hydroclimate variability for the past 6000 years. This previously published stalagmite benefits now from a more detailed age-depth model and an increased temporal resolution, to an average of 15 years across the whole record. More importantly, following recent monitoring studies, it was concluded that the δ18O signal in the cave drip water is representative of winter climate conditions.

In East-Central Europe there is a significant correlation between the winter temperature and the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern (EA), as this region witnesses higher than average temperatures during the positive phase of EA. The North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnection pattern (NAO) is known to modulate winter precipitation in the European realm, and many NAO reconstructions have sought to identify its variability in the past.

To investigate the drivers behind winter climate dynamics in the region surrounding the cave and across Europe, we compare our data with other speleothem winter temperature and rainfall records from Europe and the Levant. Further, we examine their variability on a complex time-evolving relationship with the coupled NAO/EA patterns.

How to cite: Dragusin, V., Ersek, V., Fleitmann, D., Ionita-Scholz, M., and Onac, B. P.: 6000 years of winter climate variability revealed by a speleothem record from East-Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4277, 2022.

EGU22-5789 | Presentations | NP3.2

Scaling invariance behaviour of thermal fluxes from an extensive green roof 

Leydy Alejandra Castellanos Diaz, Pierre-Antoine Versini, Olivier Bonin, and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia

Green roofs are widely recognized as a Nature-Based Solution that regulates the air temperature within urban environments. Thanks to the shading effect and the evapotranspiration process (ET), the temperature decreases in the green roof surrounding area. Hence, the implementation of green roofs in urban environment for this purpose requires the quantification of ET-related processes at different scales. Nevertheless, because of complexity of the ET process, different methods of measurement have been used at different scales. However, no agreement about the way to assess ET rates over green roofs has been reached between the scientific community, as well as its behaviour at different urban scales is still unclear. Therefore, more investigations on ET measurements are required for better understand and analyse its spatial and temporal variability at different scales.

For this purpose, a Larger Aperture Scintillometer (LAS) MKI from Kipp&Zonen was installed over a wavy-green roof of 1 ha, the Blue Green Wave (BGW), located in the Ecole des Points ParisTech (France). The main objective of this set-up was to assess the refractive index-structure parameter (Cn2) fluctuations from which ET can be deduced by means of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and the surface energy balance. As LAS is mainly influenced by fluctuations of air temperature, a radiometer equipped with a temperature sensor was installed in addition over the BGW. Then, the scaling statistics of Cn2 and temperature were studied through their power spectral density and their structure function.

The results obtained from the power spectral density demonstrated the scaling invariance of Cnand temperature over certain ranges of scales. The spectral exponents are close to 5/3 for Cnand to 2 for the temperature. Regarding the scaling exponents of the structure functions, the multifractal feature of the structure parameter Cn2 and the temperature was confirmed. The scale-invariant properties of the empirical data were characterised using the Universal Multifractal framework.

How to cite: Castellanos Diaz, L. A., Versini, P.-A., Bonin, O., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: Scaling invariance behaviour of thermal fluxes from an extensive green roof, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5789, 2022.

EGU22-6233 | Presentations | NP3.2 | Highlight

Disentangling the mechanisms of ENSO response to volcanic eruptions 

Francesco S.R. Pausata and the et al.

Large explosive volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both radiative balance and inducing interannual-to-decadal dynamical alterations of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Despite some discrepancies across studies regarding the response of ENSO to volcanism based on paleoclimate data, the majority of ENSO reconstructions display an El Niño–like warming in the year of eruption, while none display a significant La Niña–like response. Furthermore, there has been an emerging consensus from the numerous coupled General Circulation Model studies investigating the impact of tropical volcanism on ENSO, with the overwhelming majority displaying an El Niño–like warming occurring in the year following the eruption. However, the mechanisms that trigger ENSO anomalies following volcanic eruptions are still debated. The center of the argument is understanding how volcanism affects the trade winds along the equatorial Pacific.

We performed a series of sensitivity experiments using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) designed to shed light on the processes that govern the ENSO response to volcanic eruptions as a function of the regional distribution of the aerosol forcing. Specifically, a uniform stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading was imposed over different parts of the tropics and extra-tropics to test the four main mechanisms invoked to explain the ENSO response to volcanic eruptions: 1) the ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism; 2) the cooling of the Maritime Continent (MC) mechanism; 3) the cooling of tropical northern Africa (NAFR) mechanism; and 4) the Intertropical Convergence Zone shift mechanism. In this contribution, we will present results for NorESM1-M, illustrate their implications for understanding of forced ENSO dynamics and discuss how our approach can give benefit to multi-model assessments of ENSO response to volcanic forcing.

How to cite: Pausata, F. S. R. and the et al.: Disentangling the mechanisms of ENSO response to volcanic eruptions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6233, 2022.

EGU22-6807 | Presentations | NP3.2

Characterization of Typhoon Track Using Multifractal Analysis of Wind Fields 

Jisun Lee, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, and Dong-In Lee

In Korea, typhoons are becoming an essential issue as they cause huge damage and their occurrence frequency has increased since 2001. Many types of research and case studies related to the prediction of typhoon intensity and typhoon track are being conducted, especially with the help of numerical models. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the nonlinear behavior of typhoons, especially by using radar data, see however Lee et al. (2020, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0209.1). We perform such a detailed analysis of datasets of wind fields retrieved from radar in a multifractal framework. More precisely, we analyzed the difference of multifractality on each altitude depending on the different typhoon tracks and show that estimates of the multifractal parameters can be used to characterize the typhoon tracks. 

The radar dataset was collected depending on the category of the track of the typhoon. Track category 1: typhoon moving straight north from Jeju island to the Korean peninsula, and track category 2: typhoon making a curve northeastward as the typhoon passes Jeju island. Typhoon Khanun, Bolaven and Sanba (2012) are selected for track category 1. Tembin (2012) and Chaba (2016) are selected for track category 2. Then, the wind field of each typhoon case was calculated by using the dual-Doppler wind retrieval method and the analysis of each field was separately performed on its positive and negative parts. 


This large amount of space-time data was analyzed by calculating fractal dimension, the Trace Moments (TM, Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1987) and Double Trace Moment (DTM, Lavallée et al., 1992). The last two enable to quantify the mean fractality of the process with the help of its fractal co-dimension C1 and its multifractality index α, which measures how fast the intermittency evolves for higher singularities.


It was possible to estimate the category of the tracks of the typhoon by calculating the fractal dimension of wind velocity components U and V  (resp. East-West and South-North) before and after landfalling on Jeju island. Also, it was noted that the location of the typhoon center affects the decreasing trend of fractal dimension of positive V. Also, with the help of TM and DTM analysis, it was possible to verify the movement of the typhoon even with the same category of track moving north. The parameter  C1 quantifies the mean sparseness of the field but the dependence on 𝛼 of positive U showed the possibility of typhoon curving to the east. Also, the track category moving to the northeast, the dependence on 𝛼 of negative U makes the difference of degree of curvature of the track. Moreover, it was possible to identify the location of the typhoon track according to the UM parameters. If the curvature degree at the altitudes of 2-5 km is large, the typhoon center is located more on the east side of the island.

How to cite: Lee, J., Tchiguirinskaia, I., Schertzer, D., and Lee, D.-I.: Characterization of Typhoon Track Using Multifractal Analysis of Wind Fields, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6807, 2022.

Where full-scale minesite-drainage monitoring has been carried out at sufficiently high sampling frequencies and long durations, interesting and intriguing patterns have been seen in the time series.  Some observations include: flow rates and aqueous concentrations of minesite drainages are not simple or steady; they are not stochastic, but also not deterministic; they are not random or chaotic. They display periodicity in complex ways.

Based on spectral analyses of time series for minesite drainages as well as for non-mining-related rivers and catchments, the typical trend is decreasing spectral power of the peaks with decreasing wavelength.  The resulting slopes are commonly fractal, typically ranging between zero (random) to 2 (random walk).  The slope of 1 ("1-over-f") is the most complex and yet has been documented in many sciences and arts.  These fractal slopes are “ubiquitous” in some non-mining catchments.

Consistent with Earth-System Science, electrical fields in the Earth are inevitably linked to other processes like large and small physical movements, magnetic variations in the earth, weather systems, and cosmic radiation.  For example, the movement of natural water through a porous or fractured medium can create an electrical field that in turn affects the distribution of ions in that water.  Small changes in ground electrical potential, considered minor background electrical "noise" by some, can significantly affect aqueous chemistry.

This study asks the question, “Why?”  Why are fractal spectral slopes so common in drainage flows and chemistries whenever data have been sufficient to search for them?

A plausible answer begins with the fact that many minesite components are open systems in the surficial environment, well grounded to the earth which behaves like an electrical capacitor.  Thus, relatively large minesite components can act as first-order low-pass signal filters.  These filters cause the spectral powers of individual periodicities entering them to (1) decrease along a fractal slope of 2 at wavelengths shorter than the "cutoff wavelength" and (2) remain unfiltered at longer wavelengths.  When several mechanisms are simultaneously acting and overlapping as low-pass filters, fractal slopes including 1-over-f slopes can appear.  Based on this rationale, periodic processes grounded to the Earth can show fractal temporal slopes when sufficient data are collected.

How to cite: Morin, K.: A Plausible Explanation for Common Fractal Temporal-Spectral Slopes of Drainage Flows and Chemistries at Full-Scale Mining Operations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6840, 2022.

The systematic study of extreme geological events (e.g., plate collision and subduction, earthquakes, volcanoes, and mineralization) that occurred during the evolution of the earth is essential not only for understanding the "abrupt changes in the evolution of the earth", but also for an in-depth understanding of the co-evolution of material-life-environment of the livable earth. However, due to the temporal and spatial anomalies and complexity of extreme geological events, classical mathematical models cannot be effectively applied to quantitively describe such events. Comparative studies of many types of geological events indicate that such extreme geological events often depict "singular" characteristics (abnormal accumulation of matter or massive release of energy in a small space or time interval). On this basis, the author proposes a unified definition of extreme geological events, a new concept of "fractal density" and a "local singularity analysis” method for quantitative description and modeling of extreme geological events. Applications of these methods to several types of extreme geological events have demonstrated that the singularity theory and methods developed in the current research can be used as general approaches for the characterization, simulation, and prediction of geological events. The case studies to be introduced include anomalous heat flow over the mid-ocean ridges, and major flare up magmatism and marine sediment flux fluctuations over the past 3 Ga history of earth continental crust evolution.

How to cite: Cheng, Q.: Fractal density and local singularity analysis method for modeling extreme geological events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6850, 2022.

EGU22-6858 | Presentations | NP3.2

Combined multifractal analysis of wind power production and atmospheric fields using simultaneous measurement of high-resolution data 

Jerry Jose, Auguste Gires, Ernani Schnorenberger, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer

Atmospheric fields are known to exhibit extreme variability over wide range of temporal and spatial scales, which makes them complex to characterize. When it comes to wind power production, the power available at atmosphere and power extracted by turbines at multiple scales are affected by corresponding variations in coexisting fields. Understanding their variability and correlations helps in quantifying uncertainties in modeling as well as real data analysis. Here, we aim to characterize the variability and correlations across scales of wind power production, and atmospheric fields including 3D wind, rainfall and air density using simultaneous measurements in a wind farm relying on the framework of Universal Multifractal (UM) analysis. It is a widely used, physically based, scale invariant framework for characterizing and simulating geophysical fields over wide range of scales.

Towards this, high-resolution atmospheric data collected from a meteorological mast located in the wind farm of Pays d’Othe operated by Boralex (110 km south-east of Paris, France) is used. The data is being collected under the project RW-Turb (https://hmco.enpc.fr/portfolio-archive/rw-turb/; supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR-19-CE05-0022). The campaign utilizes multiple 3D sonic anemometers (manufactured by Thies), mini meteorological stations (manufactured by Thies), and disdrometers (Parsivel2, manufactured by OTT) installed at turbine hub height along with turbines in the wind farm. The temporal resolution is 100 Hz for the 3D sonic anemometers, 1 Hz for the meteorological stations and 30 s for the disdrometers. Variability in power production is examined according to different meteorological conditions using the framework of UM and consequences of their correlations are discussed. In the process we also make short commentary on the actual sampling resolution at which fields should be considered for extracting useful statistical information about their variability.

How to cite: Jose, J., Gires, A., Schnorenberger, E., Tchiguirinskaia, I., and Schertzer, D.: Combined multifractal analysis of wind power production and atmospheric fields using simultaneous measurement of high-resolution data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6858, 2022.

EGU22-7783 | Presentations | NP3.2

Intermittency, stochastic Universal Multifractals and the deterministic Scaling Gyroscope Cascade model 

Xin li, Daniel schertzer, Yelva roustan, and Ioulia tchiguirinskaia

Intermittency is a fundamental feature of turbulence and more generally of geophysics, where its ubiquity is increasingly recognized. It corresponds to the concentration of the activity of a field, e.g. the vorticity of a flow, into very small fractions of the physical space. This induces strongly non-Gaussian fluctuations over a wide range of space-time scales. Multifractality corresponds to the fact that this concentration for increasing level of activity, in fact increasing singular behaviour, is supported by fractal sets of decreasing dimensions (and increasing codimensions). This is a general outcome of the (stochastic) multiplicative cascade models and of the universal multifractals, which statistics are defined with the help of two physically meaningful parameters:

  • the ‘mean codimension’ C1 ≥ 0 measures the mean concentration of the activity (C1 = 0 for a non-intermittent field);
  • the ‘multifractality index’ α ∈ (0, 2) measures how fast increases the concentration of the activity with the activity level (α=0 correspond to the monofractal case with a unique singularity / codimension C1, α= 2 corresponds to another exceptional case, the so-called ‘Log-normal’ model)

Multifractal analysis of various turbulence data, especially from lab experiments and atmospheric in-situ/remotely sensed data, have rather constantly yielded estimates of α ≈ 1.5 and C1 ≈ 0.25 , although error bars are difficult to assess. However, the relation between stochastic cascades and the deterministic Navier-Stokes equations have often been brought into question. We therefore analysed in more details the relation between stochastic multiplicative cascades, namely their universality case, and the deterministic Scaling Gyroscope Cascade (SGC, [1]), whose philosophy is rather different: it is based on a parsimonious discretisation of the Fourier transform of the Bernoulli’s form of the Navier-Stokes equations:

(∂/∂t -vΔ)u(x,t)=u(x,t)∧w(x,t)-grad(α), w(x,t)=curl(u(x,t)).


The discretization of the Bernoulli’s form is performed along a dyadic tree structure in a 2D cut: each eddy of velocity uimhas two interacting sub-eddies of velocities u2i−1m+1and u2im+1, where m indexes the cascade level of wave-number km = 2m, i ∈ [1, 2m] being the eddy location. This discretization preserves many symmetries, including the most important one: the non trivial ‘detailed energy conservation’, i.e. that nonlinearly transferred within the triad of a parent eddy and its two children.

We have performed numerous SGC simulations with a constant forcing at a low wave number, a number of cascade levels as high as N = 15 and a duration of 150 largest eddy turnover times. All these simulations display an extreme space-time intermittency. Their multifractal analysis confirms in a very robust manner the estimated α ≈ 1.5 , which is a very important result: it brings into question more than ever the relevance of the often used of the log-normal model, at least for hydrodynamic turbulence. We will present at the conference a similarly robust estimate of C1 after having clarified a recently noted, unexpected sensibility to simulation details.

Keywords: intermittency; the SGC model; multifractal 

Reference:

[1]Chigirinskaya Y, Schertzer D. Cascade of scaling gyroscopes: Lie structure, universal multifractals and self-organized criticality in turbulence[M]//Stochastic Models in Geosystems. Springer, New York, NY, 1997: 57-81.

 

How to cite: li, X., schertzer, D., roustan, Y., and tchiguirinskaia, I.: Intermittency, stochastic Universal Multifractals and the deterministic Scaling Gyroscope Cascade model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7783, 2022.

EGU22-8635 | Presentations | NP3.2

The role of the Aleutian Low in driving Pacific Decadal Variability 

William Dow, Amanda Maycock, Christine McKenna, Paloma Trascasa Castro, Manoj Joshi, Doug Smith, and Adam Blaker

Variability in the Aleutian Low is a known contributor to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, but its role in forcing the basin-wide SST anomalies that characterise Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) is unclear owing to the difficulty of disentangling coupled atmosphere-ocean processes. Here we perform a large ensemble experiment with an intermediate complexity GCM where the winter-time Aleutian Low is nudged to an anomalously strong state during successive winters. This ensemble is compared to a free-running simulation to isolate the impacts of the anomalous Aleutian Low. The nudged experiment produces a basin-scale SST response that closely resembles PDV in the free running simulation, confirming that the Aleutian Low can force PDV-like variability. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are significantly warmer in response to the strong Aleutian Low, demonstrating that extratropical atmospheric forcing can impart a signature in tropical SSTs. The largest tropical Pacific warming is manifest in the season following nudging (boreal spring), though anomalies persist year-round. We use the Bjerknes Stability Index to attribute the drivers of the tropical Pacific SST response and find that the thermocline feedback is key, which itself is most dominant in summer. The results lend new understanding to the potential for extratropical atmospheric forcing of tropical ocean variability.

How to cite: Dow, W., Maycock, A., McKenna, C., Trascasa Castro, P., Joshi, M., Smith, D., and Blaker, A.: The role of the Aleutian Low in driving Pacific Decadal Variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8635, 2022.

EGU22-9120 | Presentations | NP3.2

Modelling Pore Size Distribution, Water Retention and Hydraulic Conductivity of Granular substrates using a Universal Multifractal-based approach for Nature-Based Solutions 

Arun Ramanathan S, Pierre-Antoine Versini, Daniel Schertzer, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Remi Perrin, and Lionel Sindt

The hydrological behavior of granular substrates is of critical interest in Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) like green roofs. To simulate this behavior in a physically realistic manner it is indispensable to model the substrate’s Hydraulic Conductivity (HC) as it determines infiltration rate at various degrees of saturation. Since HC is directly dependent on water content retained by the substrate, it is necessary to physically model this Water Retention (WR) behavior too. Capillary water is stored or retained in pore spaces and this water content that can be retained by a substrate under different suction pressures is therefore dependent upon its Pore Size Distribution (PSD). Since pores in any granular media are spaces where grains are absent, their size distribution too is intrinsically related to the substrate’s Grain Size Distribution (GSD) which provides the probability of finding grains smaller than some diameter dgs. Although some earlier studies have attempted to model PSD, WR, and HC, they frequently use simplifying mono-fractal (fractal) approximations, whereas this study proposes a more generalized multifractal-based approach. Furthermore, while it is quite usual to incorporate pore tortuosity through some indirect parameter l in the HC model, a related ink-bottle effect which even though capable of affecting WR behavior is commonly ignored. Therefore this study suggests the use of a new parameter i in the WR model to physically represent this ink-bottle effect (a consequence of the substrate’s pore configuration or arrangement) which additionally takes into account the pore tortuosity without using l. The proposed models are validated using experimental measurements from 4 different commercially used green roof substrates.

Keywords: Multifractals, Non-linear geophysical systems, Cascade dynamics, Scaling, Hydrology, Green roof substrates.

How to cite: Ramanathan S, A., Versini, P.-A., Schertzer, D., Tchiguirinskaia, I., Perrin, R., and Sindt, L.: Modelling Pore Size Distribution, Water Retention and Hydraulic Conductivity of Granular substrates using a Universal Multifractal-based approach for Nature-Based Solutions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9120, 2022.

EGU22-9290 | Presentations | NP3.2

High resolution Sea Surface Temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records in IODP Site U1389 during MISs 2 to 4 

Javier Perez-Tarruella, Francisco J. Sierro, and Thibauld M. Béjard

IODP Site U1389 recovered a thick contouritic drift sequence deposited on the main branch of the Mediterranean Overflow Water in the gulf of Cadiz. That allows high resolution core recoveries for Quaternary period. In this study a high-resolution SST record was obtained by modern analogues method, using planktic foraminifer assemblages and Artificial Neural Networks. Seawater oxygen isotope composition was inferred by using the Globigerina bulloides δ18O record and the new SST data.

During MIS-3 the average amplitude of the SST change between Greenland stadials and interstadials is in the order of 2 to 4 °C. Foraminifer taxa that best reflects these minor changes is Globigeririnita glutinata. Heinrich stadial periods are represented by abrupt SST drops of about 8 °C compared to Interstadial values, and high abundance of polar and subpolar species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sin and Turborotalita quinqueloba. During MIS-2 and MIS-4, SST is higher than expected for glacial maxima, with some subtropical species occurrence except in Heinrich events. Seawater δ18O also shows millennial variability, with higher values during Greenland Interstadials and the most pronounced drops or freshening in Heinrich stadial events. During glacial maxima stadials δ18O reaches its highest values, that reflects together with the high SST potential subtropical influence.

SST and seawater δ18O changes along the record precisely reflect the impact of the Greenland stadial-interstadial events and Heinrich events on sea surface conditions. Minor event Heinrich 2.2 (2b) has been identified by SST drop but not by water freshening. Otherwise, Greenland stadial 15, which corresponds to C-14 IRD event in North Atlantic shows Heinrich-like behavior according to both sea surface proxies.

How to cite: Perez-Tarruella, J., Sierro, F. J., and Béjard, T. M.: High resolution Sea Surface Temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records in IODP Site U1389 during MISs 2 to 4, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9290, 2022.

EGU22-10080 | Presentations | NP3.2

South American climate reconstruction during the mid-Holocene from an updated paleodata compilation 

Ilana Wainer, Iuri Gorenstein, Luciana F. Prado, Paula R. Bianchini, Michael L Griffiths, Francesco SR Pausata, and Elder Yokoyama
Investigating the extent and climate implications of the Northern Hemisphere Holocene warm peak that occurred during the mid-Holocene (MH, about 6000 years ago) is of vital interest to better understand and interpret the uncertainties associated with current global warming. Paleoclimate archives are a source of unique indirect measurements, used to characterize past climates. However, several paleo-archives in South America (SA) published before the 2000s have not yet had their derived radiometric ages calibrated, representing a large source of uncertainty in past climate reconstructions. Here we reconstruct eastern SA climate during the MH using 172 paleodata with fully calibrated age models. Our results show that for the MH the Amazon and Southern SA were drier and along the western South Atlantic conditions were saltier compared to  present day climate. Southern SA presents warmer than present MH and the region separating Northeast Brazil and Southern SA together with the easternmost part of Northeast Brazil shows divergent behavior, presenting dispersed higher than present rainfall rates.  

How to cite: Wainer, I., Gorenstein, I., F. Prado, L., R. Bianchini, P., L Griffiths, M., SR Pausata, F., and Yokoyama, E.: South American climate reconstruction during the mid-Holocene from an updated paleodata compilation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10080, 2022.

EGU22-10537 | Presentations | NP3.2

How does the spatial scale of natural climate fluctuations vary across timescales? 

Torben Kunz and Thomas Laepple

What is the spatial scale of natural climate fluctuations, and how does it depend on timescale? To answer this question, we characterize the spatio-temporal correlation structure of global surface temperature fields by estimating frequency spectra of the effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF), which can be interpreted as the effective number of independent spatial samples on the globe at each frequency. ESDOF spectra are estimated from the HadCRUT4 global gridded, monthly mean temperature anomaly dataset, based exclusively on instrumental measurements, covering the period 1850 to near-present. Because this dataset includes gaps (due to a lack of observations in certain months and regions on the globe), we employ a newly developed method that allows for bias-free spectral estimation from gappy data without interpolation across gaps. To correct for the anthropogenic warming trend, the data is detrended prior to the analysis, by subtracting the linear response to the anthropogenic global mean log(CO2-equivalent) forcing time series. The resulting ESDOF spectra reveal a reduction of the ESDOF value by a factor of 10, from about 130 (±15%) at sub-annual timescales to about 13 (±50%) at multi-decadal time scales. Uncertainties are estimated by applying the same analysis to a CMIP6 climate model ensemble, with HadCRUT4 data gaps imposed. To test for the possible impact of the data gaps, the ESDOF analysis is applied to global temperature fields with and without gaps, taken from both the climate model ensemble and from the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis dataset. Results suggest slightly higher ESDOF values for complete fields, with the increase being negligible at sub-annual timescales and of the order of 15-20% at multi-decadal timescales. Overall, the results indicate that natural temperature variability at multi-decadal timescales is characterised by an ESDOF value between 10 and 20. Since it is unlikely, due to physical constraints, that the ESDOF value increases towards timescales longer than those resolved by the instrumental record, the above multi-decadal ESDOF estimate can be taken as an upper limit for centennial and longer timescales. This may have important implications in the context of paleo-climate reconstructions and their comparison with model simulations.

How to cite: Kunz, T. and Laepple, T.: How does the spatial scale of natural climate fluctuations vary across timescales?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10537, 2022.

EGU22-10736 | Presentations | NP3.2

Using proxy data to characterize the spatio-temporal structure of climate variablity 

Raphaël Hébert, Torben Kunz, and Thomas Laepple

The spatial scale of climate fluctuations, or effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF), depends on the timescale and the forcing: while local scale variability between far away locations may be independent on short timescales, they may become coherent over sufficiently long timescales, or if they are driven by a common forcing. While ESDOF have been estimated from instrumental data over the historical period and climate model simulations, it remains difficult to perform such analysis on paleoclimate data given the time uncertainty and proxy-specific bias. We take advantage of a database of absolutely dated annual proxies comprising tree ring, corals and varved sediments in order to provide the first estimate of ESDOF for longer than multi-decadal timescales based on proxy-data.

How to cite: Hébert, R., Kunz, T., and Laepple, T.: Using proxy data to characterize the spatio-temporal structure of climate variablity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10736, 2022.

EGU22-10769 | Presentations | NP3.2 | Highlight

What triggered the Little Ice Age? 

Francois Lapointe and Raymond Bradley

The Little Ice Age (LIA) was one of the coldest periods of the postglacial period in the Northern Hemisphere. Although there is increasing evidence that this time interval was associated with weakening of the subpolar gyre (SPG), the sequence of events that led to its weakened state has yet to be explained. Here, we use a recently reconstructed record of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) to provide insights into the sequence of events that led to the LIA. We show that the LIA was preceded by an intrusion of warm Atlantic water into the Nordic Seas in the late 1300s. The intrusion was a consequence of persistent atmospheric blocking over the North Atlantic, linked to unusually high solar forcing in times of lower volcanic activity. The warmer water led to the breakup of sea ice and calving of tidewater glaciers. Weakening of the blocking anomaly in the late 1300s allowed the large volume of ice that had accumulated to be exported into the North Atlantic, contributing to the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

The modern spatial fingerprints involving fast AMOC changes are captured by many highly resolved records from around the Atlantic during the transition from the late 1300s to the early 1400s. Paleoclimatic evidence from the Tropics suggest a more northerly Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the late 1300s followed by a rapid southward shift of the ITCZ in the early 1400s, which is consistent with model simulations of the climatic response in the Tropics to a slowdown in AMOC. While this Atlantic intrusion into the Nordic Seas triggered the main phase of the LIA, the cooling condition was maintained by higher volcanic activity in the ensuing decades that was coincident with lower solar irradiance.

 

 

How to cite: Lapointe, F. and Bradley, R.: What triggered the Little Ice Age?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10769, 2022.

EGU22-10788 | Presentations | NP3.2

PM10 fluctuation modeling in the Caribbean area using the universal multifractals framework 

Thomas Plocoste, Rudy Calif, and Lovely Euphrasie-Clotilde

Every year, the Caribbean basin is strongly impacted by sand mists from African deserts. The health impact is significant for the population living there. This is the reason why a better understanding of the behavior of particulate matter that have an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm diameter (PM10) is crucial to predict their fluctuations. The aim of this study is to characterize the PM10 fluctuations in the fully developed turbulence framework. For that, this analysis is carried out using PM10 datasets sampled at daily basis during six years period for three Caribbean islands (Martinique–Guadeloupe-Puerto Rico). After a multifractal analysis, the results obtained show that the log-Lévy model is suitable, in comparison to the log normal model, to fit the scaling exponent function ζ(q) and the multifractal spectrum f(α). Under this basis, a PM10 fluctuations characterization for each island is proposed using the three universal multifractal parameters [1,2]. Hence, stochastic simulations can be envisaged to mimic the stochastic behavior of PM10 data.

References

[1] Schertzer, D., Lovejoy, S., 1987. Physical modeling and analysis of rain and clouds by anistropic multiplicative processes. J. Geophys. Res. 92 (D8), 9693-9714.

[2] Schertzer, D., Lovejoy, S., Schmitt, F., Chigirinskaya, Y., Marsan, D., 1997. Multifractal cascade dynamics and turbulent intermittency. Fractals 5 (3), 427-471.

How to cite: Plocoste, T., Calif, R., and Euphrasie-Clotilde, L.: PM10 fluctuation modeling in the Caribbean area using the universal multifractals framework, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10788, 2022.

EGU22-10981 | Presentations | NP3.2 | Highlight

The enigma of multidecadal to centennial global vs. local temperature variability in models and proxies 

Thomas Laepple, Oliver Bothe, Manuel Chevalier, Beatrice Ellerhoff, Raphaël Hébert, Annika Herbert, Belen Martrat, Eduardo Moreno Chamarro, Kira Rehfeld, Patrizia Schoch, Nils Weitzel, and Elisa Ziegler

Climate variability, resulting from natural radiative forcing and interactions within the climate system, is a major source of uncertainty for regional climate projections. Constraining the amplitude of these natural variations is fundamental to assess the range of plausible future scenarios. As the instrumental record is limited to the last two centuries, information about climate variations on multi-decadal to millennial timescales relies on the analysis of climate proxy records and climate model simulations. However, current results from systematic model-proxy comparisons of natural variability seem contradictory. Several studies suggest that simulated local temperature variability is consistently smaller than proxy-based reconstructions and conclude that climate models might have major deficiencies. Other studies find agreement in global temperature variability across timescales and argue that current models can faithfully simulate climate variability. 

Here, we review the evidence on the strength of natural temperature variability during recent millennia. We identify systematic biases in the reconstructions that may contribute to the model-proxy discrepancy but are likely not sufficient to reach consistency. Instead, we propose that the seemingly contradictory  findings on the (dis)agreement between proxies and simulations can be reconciled assuming that regional climate variations persist on longer time scales than currently simulated by climate models. The combined evidence argues for deficiencies in the simulation of internal variability but a faithful response of climate models to natural radiative forcing. We propose a strategy to test our hypothesis and discuss the implications for future climate projections.

How to cite: Laepple, T., Bothe, O., Chevalier, M., Ellerhoff, B., Hébert, R., Herbert, A., Martrat, B., Moreno Chamarro, E., Rehfeld, K., Schoch, P., Weitzel, N., and Ziegler, E.: The enigma of multidecadal to centennial global vs. local temperature variability in models and proxies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10981, 2022.

EGU22-12100 | Presentations | NP3.2 | Highlight

Climate change and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index: Can entropy reveal a non-natural variability trend in NAO index? 

Antonia Chatzirodou and Angelos Livogiannis

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index describes the hemispheric meridional oscillation of atmospheric masses above near Iceland and the subtropical Atlantic regions. In specific, NAO index indicates the differences in atmospheric pressure patterns between the two regions. Strong positive NAO index values relate to significant pressure differences, exposing US East and Northern Europe to warmer weather conditions, and Southern Europe to colder weather conditions. Negative NAO index values indicate weaker pressure differences, exposing US East and Northern Europe to cold weather, and Southern Europe to warm weather. A significant portion of the Atlantic sector climate is associated with NAO index and its variability. Historically, NAO index values were in a positive trend between 1970s and 1980s. Highest positive values were reported in the early 1990s. By that time, it was suggested that NAO index positive trends contributed significantly to the global warming signal. Most recently, research outputs from climate model predictions suggest that NAO index values will be more at the positive phase as a result of strong global warming signal. In a warmer climate the overall number of storms is predicted to decrease but storms will be more intense. However, more research is needed to understand variability trends in NAO index and to what extent they might be attributed to climate change impacts. Hence referred in here as NAO natural and non-natural, or else, climate change related variability trends. This study investigated the NAO variability trends by use of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and SSA based Entropy index. SSA is a statistical mechanics tool used to study the non-linear behavioral characteristics in complex geophysical, meteorological and climatic systems, monitored by time series data. The main objective of this analysis is to reveal the evolution of the NAO index dynamical system and convey information about the changing dynamics of the system. By use of SSA Entropy based index, the chaotic behavior of NAO index is studied. An SSA entropy based chaotic descriptor might entail information of the non-natural variability trend for NAO index values. Also the same descriptor might prove capable of defining a historical milestone of when this NAO variability trend started changing in an unpredictable- non natural- way owed to climate change forcing factors. NAO Index data are extracted from Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia from 1979-2018. SSA Phase space reconstruction by method of delays has been applied first to characterize the statistical and chaotic behavior of NAO patterns, by calculating variability and inconsistency descriptors. Phase space reconstruction allows analyzing time series data within the dynamics systems theory context. Following that, reconstructed attractor from the NAO observed time series allowed to build an approximation of the unknown observed states. Results revealed a highly variable and inconsistent behavior in NAO patterns over time. SSA Entropy based index investigation is currently underway to further understand the nature of inconsistency revealed in NAO patterns. Further research is expected to establish wind and wave storm patterns connections with NAO index patterns, through transfer dynamics concepts.

How to cite: Chatzirodou, A. and Livogiannis, A.: Climate change and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index: Can entropy reveal a non-natural variability trend in NAO index?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12100, 2022.

The static characterization and sedimentological/stratigraphic modelling of the Naturally Fractured and Vugular Deposits (YNFV) are carried out based on the multiscale and multi-physical/geological data (Big Geodata). To date, the reference analytical techniques used in the Oil Industry to integrate this information are uncertain. There are several reasons for this, the main one being the different nature and accuracy of the exploration data. Multifractal and p-Adic analyses of the architecture of the field of interest were carried out. It was documented that the trajectories' uncertainty and error in deviation depend on the scale of used information. From the 3D visualization of the YNF and its main structural elements (at scales from mega to micro), the corresponding maps of the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the effective porosity and permeability of the studied YNF were delivered. The main research goal is to develop accurate 2D and 3D maps of the productive horizon (or volume) of interest of the YNF Xikin, with a statistically- and structurally accurate forecast of the hydrocarbons distribution (made from the available seismic cube). The design of wells optimal trajectories and corresponding direction of the shots, based on the pattern of continuity/tortuosity of the corridors or networks of fractures. Muuk´ il Kaab (MIK) software, designed in conjunction with the Ku Maloob Zaap Field Assets and calibrated in several PEMEX fields used to construct the Effective Metric of Connected Fractures in the Xikin from the seismic records, analyze the geometry and topology of clusters detection of anomalous amplitudes/frequencies of seismic waves and to interpret it quantitatively from the point of view of their possible occupation by hydrocarbons and the geometry/topology of networks/fracture corridors. To reduce the bias of the final interpretation of the displayed data, at least ten techniques of nonlinear analysis, including multifractal and p-adic, were used. These techniques, applied to the original seismic records were visualized in the form of Textons (term that comes from Pattern Recognition area), which we will call: Macro- and MicroTexels , depending on the scale of observation and within which synthetic wells with optimal values of the variables selected as Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators (DIHO) were located.

The results of the analysis and visualization of the connected multiscale networks of fractures and according to the direct hydrocarbon indicators selected in this study for Xikin, the following  maps were constructed:
1. A probabilistic map of hydrocarbon concentration zones correlated with Xikin-specific sedimentological/stratigraphic features (with particular attention to the multiscale pattern of fracture);
2. 3D map of the optimal trajectories of the recommended wells, associated with the directional scheme of the shots in the preferential direction of each connected fracture pattern.

How to cite: Oleshko, K., Khrennikov, A., and de Jesús Correa López, M.: Multifractal and p-adic forecasting of distribution and continuity of faults, fracture corridors with a high probability of being associated with hydrocarbons, for the statistically-based design of trajectories of future production wells, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13127, 2022.

EGU22-355 | Presentations | OS1.7

Mediterranean Outflow Water characteristics in the Northeast Atlantic in 2019 and 2021. 

Irina Bocherikova, Viktor Krechik, Maria Kapustina, and Nadezhda Dvoeglazova

The characteristics of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) in the Northeast Atlantic were obtained during the 43rd cruise of the R/V Akademik Nikolaj Strakhov (October 2019) and the 59th cruise of the R/V Akademik Ioffe (September 2021) using CTD measurements. MOW is transformed Mediterranean Sea Water flowing down the slopes of the Strait of Gibraltar into the Gulf of Cadiz, where it mixes with underlying North Atlantic Central Water. MOW spreads at water depths between 500–1500 m in the eastern North Atlantic and is characterized by higher temperatures and salinities than other ambient water masses. In 2019 and 2021 MOW was located at depths of about 700–1500 m. The temperature in the core of MOW was in the range of 9.5–11.5 °C, while in 2019 both temperature and salinity were higher than in 2021. The salinity in the core was 36.15 psu in 2019 and 36.08 psu in 2021. The comparison of MOW characteristics obtained in 2019 and 2021 with data obtained in cruises in 1993, 2001 and 2005 from the CLIVAR and Carbon Hydrographic Data Office (https://cchdo.ucsd.edu/) showed that the maximum salinity values were observed in September 1993 and reached 36.17 psu. The minimum value of this parameter in the core of MOW was recorded in April 2001 and was 36.03 psu. According to the data of the 1993–2019 expeditions, the maximum salinity was noted at a depth of 1000–1100 m. In 2021, the core of MOW was slightly deeper — about 1150 m. The temperature in the MOW core in all studied years was in the range of 11.1–11.3 °C, with the exception of 2001, when the maximum temperature in the core was about 10.9 °C.

Acknowledgements

The financing of the expedition and the primary processing of the data obtained on the 59th cruise of the R/V Akademik Ioffe were carried out at the expense of the state assignment of IO RAS № 0128–2021–0012. The analysis and interpretation of the data were supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project no. 21–77–20004).

How to cite: Bocherikova, I., Krechik, V., Kapustina, M., and Dvoeglazova, N.: Mediterranean Outflow Water characteristics in the Northeast Atlantic in 2019 and 2021., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-355, 2022.

EGU22-403 | Presentations | OS1.7

Distribution of Antarctic Bottom Water  in the Western Gap (Northeast Atlantic) 

Aleksandra Muratova, Viktor Krechik, and Polina Krivoshlyk

Based on the data obtained during the 59th cruise of the R/V "Akademik Ioffe", the comprehensive study of modern hydrological and hydrochemical conditions in the near-bottom layer of the Western Gap of the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone was made for the first time. Eleven stations were performed in the study area. They were located to the south of the gap, at the entrance and exit sills, in the central part of the gap basin, as well as in the Iberian abyssal plain. Thermohaline parameters, characteristics of currents, the content of dissolved oxygen and nutrients (silicon, phosphorus) were measured at the stations.

There was water with a potential temperature less than 2°C, high in oxygen, silicon, and phosphorus deeper than 4558 m south to the gap. The current in this layer had a predominantly northeasterly direction with velocities ranging from 8 cm/s at the upper boundary to 2–3 cm/s near the bottom.

Water with θ <2 °С was found in the central part of the entrance sill —  in the bottom layer of 20–85 m thick and in the northeastern part at the depth of 4450–4560 m. The current flowed inside the gap and had high velocities: 10–20 cm/s in the central part and 27–30 cm/s in the northeastern part of the sill. The transport of water with θ<2°С through the transect was 0.097 Sv. Hydrochemical parameters in this section had elevated concentrations.

The near-bottom videorecording performed at the southern slope of the gap basin showed pronounced signs of erosion, which suggested a constant strong AABW flow directed along the slope into the Western Gap. Direct measurements showed that in the 200 m thick bottom layer, the current was directed northward, and its average velocity was 29 cm/s. The water in this layer had an average potential temperature of 1.998 °C and was rich in oxygen, silicon and phosphorus.

There was no water with θ<2 °С detected at the stations in the central part of the gap, at the exit sill and in the Iberian Abyssal Plain

Thus, the AABW corresponding to the classical definition crosses the entrance sill and moves along the southern slope of the Western Gap basin. However, this water does not enter the central part of the gap and does not propagate further. It can be assumed that the flow on the southern slope of the basin under the action of the Coriolis force turns to the right and mixes up, recirculating in the eastern part of the basin or propagating further to the east.

Acknowledgements

The expedition financing and the primary processing of the data obtained on the 59th cruise of the R/V "Akademik Ioffe" were carried out at the expense of State Assignment of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, project № 0128-2021-0012. The analysis and interpretation of the data were supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project no. 21-77-20004).

How to cite: Muratova, A., Krechik, V., and Krivoshlyk, P.: Distribution of Antarctic Bottom Water  in the Western Gap (Northeast Atlantic), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-403, 2022.

EGU22-478 | Presentations | OS1.7

Hydrological and hydrochemical haracteristics of the modified AABW in the Discovery Gap (Northeast Atlantic) in 2021. 

Nadezhda Dvoeglazova, Maria Kapustina, Victor Krechik, and Irina Bocherikova

Hydrological and hydrochemical characteristics of the Discovery Gap bottom water (deeper than 4000 m) were obtained during the 59th cruise of the R/V Akademik Ioffe (October 2021). Discovery Gap is the narrow gap of 150 km long, 10–50 km wide, oriented from southwest to northeast in Azores–Gibraltar Fracture Zone (Northeast Atlantic). Water with a potential temperature of less than 2 °C (modified Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)) and high silicon concentrations was detected in the Discovery Gap. The terminal point of propagation of modified AABW in the exit sill of the Gap (depth more than 4700 m). There was cyclonic circulation in the Discovery Gap Narrows (the narrowest point of the Discovery Gap, 10 km wide, located in the northeastern part of it): in the northeast direction of more than 14 cm/s speed and with the high phosphate concentrations (1.46-1.54 μmol/l), in the southwest direction of 6-8 cm/s speed and with a low phosphate content (1.39-1.40 μmol/l). The localization of the extrema of phosphorus concentrations correlates with the maximum flow velocities, which may be associated with advective processes.

Acknowledgments:

The expedition and the hydrochemical processing of the data received during the 59th cruise of the R/V Akademik Ioffe was carried out with a support of the state assignment of the IO RAS (No. 0128-2021-0012), the hydrophysical measurements were supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project no. 21-77-20004).

We thank the crew of the R/V Akademik Ioffe for assistance, B.V. Chubarenko for valuable comments and E.I. Gmyrya for preparing the map.

How to cite: Dvoeglazova, N., Kapustina, M., Krechik, V., and Bocherikova, I.: Hydrological and hydrochemical haracteristics of the modified AABW in the Discovery Gap (Northeast Atlantic) in 2021., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-478, 2022.

EGU22-1015 | Presentations | OS1.7

Marine Heatwaves and their Depth Structures on the Northeast US Continental Shelf 

Hendrik Grosselindemann, Svenja Ryan, Caroline Ummenhofer, Torge Martin, and Arne Biastoch

Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) are ocean extreme events, characterized by anomalously high temperatures, which can have drastic ecological impacts. The Northeast U.S. continental shelf is of great economical importance being home to a highly productive ecosystem. Local warming rates exceed the global average and the region experienced multiple MHWs in the last decade with severe consequences for regional fisheries. Due to the lack of subsurface observations, the depth-extent of MHWs is not well known, which however hampers assessing impacts on pelagic and benthic ecosystems. This study utilizes a global ocean circulation model with a high-resolution (1/20°) nest in the Atlantic to investigate the depth structure of MHWs and associated drivers on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf. It is shown that MHWs exhibit varying spatial extents, with some only appearing at depth. Highest intensities are found around 100m depth with temperatures exceeding the climatological mean by up to 7°C, while surface intensities are typically smaller around 3°C. Distinct vertical structures are associated with different spatial patterns and drivers. Investigation of the co-variability of temperature and salinity revealed that over 80% of MHWs at depth (>50m) coincide with extreme salinity anomalies. Two case studies provide insight into opposing MHW patterns at the surface and at depth, being forced by anomalous air-sea heat fluxes and Gulf Stream warm core ring interaction, respectively, the latter hinting at the importance of local ocean dynamics. The results highlight the relevance of subsurface/deep MHWs, underlining the need of continuous subsurface measurements. Working towards a more quantitative assessment of WCRs, their interaction with the shelf break and impact on the shelf's hydrography, an eddy-tracking algorithm will be applied on the model output. This will also allow to further investigate the model's skill in representing mesoscale features in the Gulf Stream region.

How to cite: Grosselindemann, H., Ryan, S., Ummenhofer, C., Martin, T., and Biastoch, A.: Marine Heatwaves and their Depth Structures on the Northeast US Continental Shelf, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1015, 2022.

EGU22-1023 | Presentations | OS1.7

The climate impacts of an abrupt AMOC weakening on the European winters 

Katinka Bellomo, Virna Meccia, Roberta D'Agostino, Federico Fabiano, Jost von Hardenberg, and Susanna Corti

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to exist in multiple states of equilibria. In the present climate, the AMOC is believed to be in a relatively strong state, bringing warm waters into the North Atlantic and contributing to mild winters over Europe. However, proxy data show evidence of abrupt declines in the strength of the AMOC, often associated with the initiation of ice ages. The abrupt shifts in the strength of the AMOC are usually referred to as ‘tipping points’. Presently, state-of-the-art climate models are unable to spontaneously reproduce tipping points in the AMOC, preventing an accurate study of the climate impacts of an abrupt AMOC shutdown. Contextually, although it is deemed unlikely that the AMOC will collapse in response to climate change, it is expected to further slow down into the 21st century. The impacts of this weakening, relative to those of global warming, are poorly understood, especially on daily timescales.

            To address this question, we run water hosing experiments with the EC-Earth3 earth system model to investigate the impacts of an AMOC abrupt weakening on the winter climate variability focusing on the North Atlantic and Europe. We confirm results from previous studies showing a large decrease in temperature, precipitation, and an increase in the jet stream over Europe. However, we further investigate the moisture budget and the impacts on daily weather regimes and blocking. In contrast to previous hypotheses, we find that the reduction in precipitation over Europe is due to changes in the storm tracks rather than thermodynamic effects. Further, we find a significant increase in the frequency and persistence of NAO+ days. Finally, we show precipitation and temperature extremes that are expected in response to the AMOC weakening.

            Our results show the climate impacts on weather events that can be expected from an AMOC weakening alone, and are relevant to understanding the relative roles of greenhouse gas forcing and AMOC weakening on the European climate in simulations of future climate change.

How to cite: Bellomo, K., Meccia, V., D'Agostino, R., Fabiano, F., von Hardenberg, J., and Corti, S.: The climate impacts of an abrupt AMOC weakening on the European winters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1023, 2022.

EGU22-1130 | Presentations | OS1.7

Observation-based estimates of Eulerian-mean boundary downwelling in the western subpolar North Atlantic 

Yingjie liu, Damien Desbruyeres, Herle Mercier, and Michael Spall

A significant fraction of the Eulerian downwelling feeding the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been proposed to occur around the subpolar North Atlantic's continental slopes. While this downwelling ultimately takes place in a thin boundary layer where relative vorticity can be dissipated via friction, it is maintained by a large-scale geostrophic balance and an along-shore densification of the boundary current. We here use modern hydrography data (Argo and shipboard hydrography mainly) to map the long-term mean density field along the continental slope via an optimal interpolation method specifically adapted to the length scales of the boundary current. The overall downstream densification of the boundary region implies a Eulerian-mean downwelling of 2.12 ± 0.43 Sv at 1100 m depth between Denmark Strait and Flemish Cap. While seasonal variations appear to be relatively limited, a clear regional pattern emerges with Eulerian-mean downwelling in the Irminger Sea and western Labrador Sea and upwelling along Greenland western continental slope. Comparisons with independent cross-basin estimates confirm that overturning transport across the marginal seas of the subpolar North Atlantic is mainly explained by vertical volume fluxes along the continental slopes, and suggest the usefulness of hydrographic data alone to estimate the regional pattern of the sinking branch of the AMOC. 

How to cite: liu, Y., Desbruyeres, D., Mercier, H., and Spall, M.: Observation-based estimates of Eulerian-mean boundary downwelling in the western subpolar North Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1130, 2022.

EGU22-1206 | Presentations | OS1.7

Mechanisms controlling the abyssal transport of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic 

Rémy Asselot, Raphaël Bajon, Marta López Mozos, Virginie Thierry, Herlé Mercier, Fiz Pérez, and Lidia Carracedo

Since the industrial revolution, human activities have emitted large amount of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) into the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuel, the production of cement and land-use change. Via air-sea gas exchange, the ocean absorbs roughly a third of Cant, meaning that Cant is an additional source of carbon for the ocean. In particular, the North Atlantic is known to be a region with a high storage capacity of Cant. Whereas the distribution of Cant in the upper layers of the North Atlantic is well documented, its transport to the abyssal ocean and the mechanisms behind its deep redistribution remain scarcely described. To shed light on this research gap, we use a database provided by ~70 Deep-Argo floats equipped with oxygen sensors and located in the North Atlantic that allow us to explore the deep pathways of Cant. First, the macronutrients and carbon variables (pH, total alkalinity, total inorganic carbon and pCO2) are estimated with bayesian neural networks (CANYON-B and CONTENT) from the temperature, salinity and oxygen data of the floats. Second, Cant concentrations in the water column are then estimated with back-calculation methods. Here we present the first results of our study.    

How to cite: Asselot, R., Bajon, R., López Mozos, M., Thierry, V., Mercier, H., Pérez, F., and Carracedo, L.: Mechanisms controlling the abyssal transport of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1206, 2022.

EGU22-1682 | Presentations | OS1.7

Using mixed layer heat budgets to determine the drivers of the 2015 North Atlantic cold anomaly in ocean state estimates 

Rachael Sanders, Daniel Jones, Simon Josey, Bablu Sinha, and Gael Forget

Record low surface temperatures were observed in the subpolar North Atlantic during 2015, despite the majority of the global ocean experiencing higher than average surface temperatures. We compute mixed layer temperature budgets in the ECCO Version 4 state estimate to further understand the processes responsible for the North Atlantic cold anomaly. We show that surface forcing was the cause of approximately 75% of the initial cooling in the winter of 2013/14, after which the cold anomaly was sequestered beneath the deep winter mixed layer. Re-emergence of the cold anomaly during the summer/autumn of 2014 was primarily driven by a strong temperature gradient across the base of the mixed layer. Vertical diffusion resulted in approximately 70% of the re-emergence, with entrainment of deeper water driving the remaining 30%. In the summer of 2015, surface warming of the mixed layer was then anomalously low, resulting in the most negative temperature anomalies. Spatial patterns in the budgets show that the initial surface cooling was strongest in the south of the region, due to strong westerly winds related to the positive phase of the East Atlantic Pattern. Subsequent anomalies in surface fluxes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation were stronger in the north, but the impact on the average temperature of the mixed layer was largely masked by anomalously high winter mixed layer depths.

How to cite: Sanders, R., Jones, D., Josey, S., Sinha, B., and Forget, G.: Using mixed layer heat budgets to determine the drivers of the 2015 North Atlantic cold anomaly in ocean state estimates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1682, 2022.

EGU22-1741 | Presentations | OS1.7

Inter-annual Variability in the Subpolar Overturning Circulation: A Sensitivity Analysis 

Hemant Khatri, Richard Williams, Tim Woollings, and Doug Smith

We employ multi-ensemble Met Office Decadal Prediction System hindcasts to analyse the impact of atmospheric winds and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases on the overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. A positive NAO phase is generally associated with an anomalously strong and/or northward shifted jet stream in the North Atlantic, and the vice-versa is true for a negative NAO phase. As a consequence of relatively strong winds, oceans tend to lose more heat to the atmosphere in winter in many parts of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. This process is expected to create negative anomalies in sea surface temperature and generate more dense water on the ocean surface at high latitudes resulting in a strengthening in the overturning circulation. Here, we examine the sensitivity of the overturning circulation to NAO phases in multi-ensemble decadal hindcasts to understand how the interior ocean responds to different NAO phases. For this purpose, we analyse the changes in east-west density contrasts, upper ocean heat content, mixed-layer depth, meridional heat and salt transport in different oceanic regions, i.e. Labrador Sea, Irminger Sea and Nordic Seas. In particular, we perform a linear regression analysis for the above-mentioned diagnostics and NAO indices to assess how sensitive the upper ocean is to changes in the atmospheric state. We further compare our results against reanalysis data and in-situ observations.

How to cite: Khatri, H., Williams, R., Woollings, T., and Smith, D.: Inter-annual Variability in the Subpolar Overturning Circulation: A Sensitivity Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1741, 2022.

EGU22-1786 | Presentations | OS1.7

Wind-driven freshwater export at Cape Farewell 

Elodie Duyck, Renske Gelderloos, and Femke De Jong

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation redistributes heat across the Atlantic and is therefore a critical element of the climate system. Increased freshwater fluxes to the subpolar north Atlantic from the Greenland ice sheet and from the Arctic could lead to a strengthening of stratification in deep convection regions, and impact deep water formation and the overturning circulation. However, this additional freshwater first enters the boundary current on the Greenland shelf, and freshwater pathways from the shelf to deep convection regions are still unclear. In this study, we investigate the possible role of winds in driving short-lived freshwater export events from the south-east Greenland shelf to the deep convection region of the Irminger Sea.

Along the south-eastern shelf, strong and consistent north-easterly winds tend to restrain fresh surface waters over the shelf. This wind pattern changes at Cape Farewell, where strong westerly winds could lead to across-shelf export. Using a high-resolution model, we identify strong wind events and investigate their impact on freshwater export. The strongest westerly winds, westerly tip jets, are associated with the strongest and deepest freshwater export across the shelfbreak, with a mean of 40.7 mSv of freshwater in the first 100 m (with reference salinity 34.9). These wind events tilt isohalines and extend the front offshore, especially over Eirik Ridge. Moderate westerly events are associated with weaker export across the shelfbreak (mean of 17 mSv) but overall contribute to more freshwater export throughout the year, including in summer, when the shelf is particularly fresh. Particle tracking shows that half of the surface waters crossing the shelfbreak during tip jet events are exported away from the shelf, either entering the Irminger Gyre, or being driven over Eirik Ridge. During strong westerly wind events, sea-ice detaches from the coast and veers towards the Irminger Sea, but the contribution of sea-ice to freshwater export at the shelfbreak is minimal compared to liquid freshwater export.

How to cite: Duyck, E., Gelderloos, R., and De Jong, F.: Wind-driven freshwater export at Cape Farewell, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1786, 2022.

EGU22-2778 | Presentations | OS1.7

AMOC thresholds in CMIP6 models: NAHosMIP 

Laura Jackson, Eduardo Alastrue-De-Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Virna Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system, which keeps the North Atlantic relatively warm. It is predicted to weaken under climate change. The AMOC may have a tipping point beyond which recovery is difficult, hence showing quasi-irreversibility (hysteresis). Although hysteresis has been seen in simple models, it has been difficult to demonstrate in comprehensive global climate models.

We present initial results from the North Atlantic hosing model intercomparison project, where we applied an idealised forcing of a freshwater flux over the North Atlantic in 9 CMIP6 models. The AMOC weakens in all models from the freshening, but once the freshening ceases, the AMOC recovers in some models, and in others it stays in a weakened state. We discuss how differences in feedbacks affect the AMOC response.  

How to cite: Jackson, L., Alastrue-De-Asenjo, E., Bellomo, K., Danabasoglu, G., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Meccia, V., Saenko, O., Shao, A., and Swingedouw, D.: AMOC thresholds in CMIP6 models: NAHosMIP, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2778, 2022.

EGU22-2821 | Presentations | OS1.7

Arctic pacing of North Atlantic climate variability through freshwater exports 

Marilena Oltmanns and Ben Moat

Freshwater plays a key role in the Arctic - North Atlantic climate system, linking ice, ocean and atmospheric dynamics. In particular, large freshwater releases into the subpolar region drive extreme cold anomalies, create sharp sea surface temperature fronts, destabilise the overlying atmosphere, and trigger shifts in major ocean currents. Considering the expected increased freshwater fluxes in future due to more melt, it is critical to understand the resulting climate feedbacks.

Combining observations and models, we present evidence that past changes in Arctic freshwater outflow paced transitions between North Atlantic cold and warm anomalies. This circulation-driven freshwater cycle explained over 50% of the sea surface temperature variability in the subpolar North Atlantic and was particularly pronounced on decadal timescales. However, new findings indicate that the recent freshwater input due to more melting has increased the amplitude and frequency of freshwater variations in the North Atlantic, leading to a shift of power in the North Atlantic climate variability from decadal to interannual timescales. In addition, the interference of the circulation-driven freshwater cycle by melting has contributed to the storage of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean, where it now poses the possible risk of rapid climate change if the freshwater were released. In light of newly identified, Arctic feedbacks to melt-driven freshwater events in the North Atlantic, we suggest that an Arctic freshwater release is becoming increasingly likely.

How to cite: Oltmanns, M. and Moat, B.: Arctic pacing of North Atlantic climate variability through freshwater exports, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2821, 2022.

EGU22-3068 | Presentations | OS1.7

Formation of dense water over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in a hierarchy of climate models 

Tillys Petit, Jon Robson, and David Ferreira

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the global climate. Recent observations have highlighted the dominant role of the buoyancy forcing in the transformation of surface waters to the AMOC lower limb at subpolar latitudes. The short (4 years) length of the OSNAP timeseries, however, limits conclusions over longer time scales. To investigate a wide range of temporal scales, we use three 100-years long coupled simulations of HadGEM3-GC3.1, at resolutions ranging from ~130 km atmosphere and 1° ocean to 25 km atmosphere and 1/12° ocean. In line with observations, the models show that the mean overturning and buoyancy-induced transformation are concentrated in the eastern subpolar gyre rather than in the Labrador Sea.

However, the horizontal resolution of the models impacts the formation of dense water over the subpolar gyre. An unrealistically large sea ice extent induces a weak buoyancy-induced transformation over the western subpolar gyre at low resolution, while a bias in surface density produces too dense water at high resolution. These biases are associated with a shift in the location of dense water formation. The transformation is mainly localized in the interior of the Irminger and Labrador seas at low resolution, and over the boundary current at high resolution. The interannual variability of the transformation is thus driven by different mechanisms between the simulations. In contrast with observations, the interannual variance in air-sea fluxes plays a more prominent role in the variance of transformation along the boundary current at high resolution.

How to cite: Petit, T., Robson, J., and Ferreira, D.: Formation of dense water over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in a hierarchy of climate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3068, 2022.

EGU22-3502 | Presentations | OS1.7

Variability of Subpolar Mode Water Volume and Formation in the North Atlantic during 1993-2018 

Ilaria Stendardo, Bruno Buongiorno Nardelli, Sara Durante, Daniele Iudicone, and Dagmar Kieke

Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) represents a variety of near-surface waters that occupy a large volume in the upper 1000 m of the water column of the Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). Originating in the eastern and northeastern SPNA through late winter water mass formation, SPMW acts as a precursor to the formation of the North Atlantic Deep Water, which is an important ingredient of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study we address spatial and temporal changes in the SPMW layer thickness and volume. We relate these changes to variability in the water mass formation estimated through the net subduction/obduction rates along predefined isopycnal bins between σθ = 27.05 kg m-3 and σθ = 27.55 kg m-3 with 0.1 kg m-3 interval. We use two observation-based gridded 3D products from the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service (CMEMS), i.e., the ARMOR3D and the OMEGA3D datasets. The first one provides 3D temperature and salinity fields and is available on a weekly 0.25° regular grid from 1993 to present. The second one provides observation-based quasi-geostrophic vertical and horizontal velocity fields with the same temporal and spatial resolution as ARMOR3D, but for the period 1993 to 2018. Throughout this period of 27 years of observations, the analysis reveals not only pronounced interannual variability in the SPMW formation and volume but also a strong spatial variability, which is caused by spatial changes of the main SPMW formation area within the northeastern SPNA.

How to cite: Stendardo, I., Buongiorno Nardelli, B., Durante, S., Iudicone, D., and Kieke, D.: Variability of Subpolar Mode Water Volume and Formation in the North Atlantic during 1993-2018, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3502, 2022.

The Labrador Sea in the subpolar North Atlantic is one of the few special regions, where strong wintertime buoyancy loss, consecutive substantially reduced vertical stratification, and the prevailing circulation facilitate the transfer of water mass properties from the surface to depths exceeding 1500 m through deep convective mixing. Hence, impacting the characteristics of the intermediate and deep waters in the entire Atlantic basin. Despite ever-growing evidence of the freshwater and atmospheric gas contents of these waters being directly affected by the strength of wintertime mixing in the Labrador Sea, the relative importance of the Labrador Sea convection for the strength of the overall Atlantic meridional overturning is still under debate, often leading to contradicting conclusions. This ongoing debate highlights the need for an in-depth all-inclusive investigation of the processes responsible for both occurrence and persistence of deep convective mixing events. Here, we make a first step in this direction by aligning multiplatform observations with model runs and quantifying the roles of the local atmospheric forcing (e.g., cumulative wintertime air-sea flux), the remote oceanic forcing (e.g., horizontal advection) and the ocean’s own memory of the past convective events (e.g., weak stratification resulting from convective preconditioning).

These three key factors, fully responsible for initiation and undergoing of winter convection, and both seasonal and interannual heat content changes in the Labrador Sea, are analyzed based on long time series. These are comprised from all available thoroughly quality-controlled ship, profiling float and mooring measurements in the central Labrador Sea and state-of the-art ocean models. The resulting variables compared between the observations and models include time series of the characteristic ocean state variables, such as temperature, salinity and density over the entire water column. Additionally, the variables quantifying specific outcomes of each winter convection, such as depth, density and volume of the newly mixed intermediate-depth water in the Labrador Sea are considered. 

We show that the seasonal evolution of the deep winter convective mixed layer is a result of the sum of the surface cooling and the overall multiyear inertia in density changes and variations in the heat, freshwater and salt imports from the neighboring North Atlantic and Arctic regions. This, in turn means that not forcibly the strongest surface cooling induces the deepest convection with maximum density water, but rather a combination of the three factors. Through the combined analyses of observations and model-based time series we are able to properly assess the relative contribution of these three factors to the development of deep convective mixing in the Labrador Sea.

How to cite: Handmann, P., Yashayaev, I., and Schwarzkopf, F.: Relative roles of different key forcing and preconditioning factors for recurrent deep convection in the Labrador Sea from observations and ocean models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3522, 2022.

EGU22-3596 | Presentations | OS1.7

Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate Modes: Future Scenarios From a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble 

Eleonora Cusinato, Angelo Rubino, and Davide Zanchettin

Dominant Euro-Atlantic climate modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic pattern (EA), the Eastern Atlantic Western Russian pattern (EAWR), and the Scandinavian pattern (SCA) significantly affect interannual-to-decadal Euro-Mediterranean climate fluctuations, especially in winter.

In this contribution, we will present and discuss results from a CMIP6 multi-model analysis performed to investigate the robustness of historical and projected state and variability of such modes under the historical and ssp585 future scenario of anthropogenic forcing (fossil-fueled development with 8.5W/m2 forcing level) simulations, focusing on the winter season.

Toward this goal, we first search for a reliable box-based index definition for each of the abovementioned observed climate modes and, then, we perform a comparative assessment of the temporal, spectral and distributional properties of the so-defined indices during the historical (1850-2014) and ssp585 future scenario (2015-2099) time periods, with a special focus on the two interdecadal periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099.

Results show overall good skills of the historical ensemble to reproduce the observed temporal, spectral and distributional properties of all considered modes. At the end of the 21st Century the ssp585 ensemble yields non-significant distributional changes for NAO, EAWR, and SCA indices and a transition to a stronger baroclinic structure for EA, with persistent positive anomalies in the mid-troposphere enhancing globally-driven warming over the Euro-Mediterranean region. The hemispheric spatial correlation patterns with temperature and precipitation significantly change for all modes, that is, we observe a significant modulation of the teleconnections associated with each index.

 

How to cite: Cusinato, E., Rubino, A., and Zanchettin, D.: Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate Modes: Future Scenarios From a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3596, 2022.

EGU22-3602 | Presentations | OS1.7

The impact of mesoscale variability on northward volume transport in the Irminger Sea 

Nora Fried, Caroline A. Katsman, and M. Femke de Jong

The Irminger Current (IC) is known to be an important contributor to the northward volume transport associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The IC has a two-core structure with surface intensified velocities and transports warm and saline waters originating from the North Atlantic Current further north. The strength of the subpolar AMOC is continuously measured by the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) since 2014. Recent results highlight that most of the overturning in density space occurs in the array east of Greenland, in the Irminger and Iceland Basins. In previous work we looked into the transport variability of the IC on decadal to interannual time scales and could identify long-term trend related to basin-wide density changes which have the potential to impact AMOC variability. However, the impact of mesoscale variability on northward transport variability in the Irminger Sea has not been studied yet.

In this study, we explore the mesoscale variability in the IC and its impact on northward transport variability.

Previous studies showed that the western flank of the Reykjanes Ridge, where the IC is located, is a region of enhanced eddy kinetic energy. We used high resolution mooring data from 2014 – 2020 from the IC mooring array to investigate its transport variability. The mean volume transport obtained for the IC is 10.4 Sv but it strongly varies on time scales from days to months (std. dev. of 4.3 Sv). The mooring data reveals a seasonal cycle in the eddy kinetic energy with the strongest activity in winter. However, this does not coincide with a seasonal cycle in volume transport. We found the strongest EKE in the western core of the IC. In 2019, an exceptional 6-month intensification of the IC led to exceptionally strong volume transport of the IC of 19.9 Sv in August. Using sea level anomaly maps from satellite altimetry, the intensification was attributed to the presence of a mesoscale eddy in the vicinity of the moorings.  At this time, altimetry shows an anticyclone lingering next to a cyclone in the mooring array, which intensified northward velocities within the IC. We thus conclude that mesoscale variability can directly impact both the transport and the variability of the IC.

Considering the potential importance of mesoscale variability along the Reykjanes Ridge, further research will focus on estimating the mean properties of the eddies, their formation region and their faith using a high-resolution model.

How to cite: Fried, N., Katsman, C. A., and de Jong, M. F.: The impact of mesoscale variability on northward volume transport in the Irminger Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3602, 2022.

EGU22-4010 | Presentations | OS1.7

Mechanisms for Late 20th and Early 21st Century Decadal AMOC Variability 

Alex Megann, Adam Blaker, Simon Josey, Adrian New, and Bablu Sinha

Where earlier generations of ocean models with resolution of 1° or coarser tended to represent wintertime dense water formation in the North Atlantic mainly as a process of open water convection in the Labrador Sea and Nordic Seas, more recent models with higher resolution, in conjunction with observational programmes such as OSNAP, have presented us with a new, more complex, picture. Watermasses are progressively ventilated and lose buoyancy as they propagate cyclonically westward around the gyre, starting with the formation of Subpolar Mode Water close to the eastern boundary, and eventually leading to Labrador Sea Water, which forms part of the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

We present a set of hindcast integrations of a global 1/4° NEMO ocean configuration from 1958 until nearly the present day, forced with three standard surface forcing datasets. We use the surface-forced streamfunction, estimated from surface buoyancy fluxes, along with the overturning streamfunction, similarly defined in potential density space, to investigate the causal link between surface forcing and decadal variability in the strength of the AMOC. We confirm that surface heat loss from the Irminger Sea is the dominant mechanism for decadal AMOC variability, while that from the Labrador Sea has about half the amplitude. The AMOC variability is shown to be related to that of the North Atlantic Oscillation, primarily through the surface heat flux, itself dominated by the air-sea temperature difference, and we show that a metric based on the surface-forced streamfunction has predictive value for AMOC variability on interannual to decadal time scales.

How to cite: Megann, A., Blaker, A., Josey, S., New, A., and Sinha, B.: Mechanisms for Late 20th and Early 21st Century Decadal AMOC Variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4010, 2022.

EGU22-4072 | Presentations | OS1.7

Improving nordic overflows representation in global ocean models 

Diego Bruciaferri, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Helene Hewitt, James Harle, Mattia Almansi, and Pierre Mathiot

Cold dense waters flowing south from the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean form strong bottom intensified gravity currents at the Denmark Strait, Iceland-Faroe ridge, and Faroe-Scotland channel. Such overflows generate water-masses with specific hydrographic features which form the lower limb of the thermohaline circulation, responsible for a large fraction of the ocean heat transport on the Globe.

Gravity current representation in ocean models is sensitive to the choice of the vertical coordinate system. Typically, global ocean models use geopotential z-level coordinates, representing the bottom topography as a series of step-like structures. However, this choice results in excessive entrainment and mixing when simulating gravity currents, even when the partial steps parametrization is employed. Conversely, terrain-following coordinates offers a natural representation of overflows but introduce errors in the computation of the pressure gradient force, making their use in global configurations challenging.

To improve the representation of Nordic overflows in global models, Colombo (2018) proposed the use of a local-sigma vertical coordinate, where model surfaces are terrain-following only in the proximity of the Greenland-Scotland ridge, whilst standard z-level coordinates (with partial steps) are used everywhere else. However, the development of such a mesh is not trivial, especially when defining the transition zone between the two vertical coordinates.

Similarly, to improve the representation of cross-shelf exchange in regional configurations Harle et al. (2013) developed a hybrid vertical coordinate (SZT) where terrain-following computational surfaces smoothly transition to z-level with partial steps below a user defined depth.

Recently, Bruciaferri et al. (2018) introduced the Multi-Envelope (ME) s-coordinate system, where computational levels are curved and adjusted to multiple arbitrarily defined surfaces (aka envelopes) rather than following geopotential levels or the actual bathymetry. This allows the optimisation of model levels in order to best represent different physical processes within sub-domains of the model.

In order to overcome the complexities of the local-sigma method, we propose combining this approach with the flexibility of the SZT and ME methods to generate localised versions of these vertical coordinates. We test this new methodology in the region of the Nordic Sea overflows in a ¼° global NEMO configuration. At first, a series of idealised numerical experiments is conducted to assess the ability of the local-SZT and local-ME grids to minimise both horizontal pressure gradient errors and spurious entrainment of overflow waters. Finally, the skill of the new local-ME and local-SZT systems in reproducing observed properties of the Nordic overflows is assessed and compared with the traditional approach of employing geopotential coordinates with partial steps.

Bruciaferri, D., Shapiro, G.I. & Wobus, F. A multi-envelope vertical coordinate system for numerical ocean modelling. Ocean Dynamics 68, 1239–1258 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-018-1189-x

Harle, J.D. et al. 2013. Report on role of biophysical interactions on basin-scale C and N budgets. Deliverable 6.5, European Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration (EURO-BASIN) Project, http://eurobasin.dtuaqua.dk/eurobasin/documents/deliverables/D6.5%20Report%20on%20role%20of%20biophysical%20interactions%20on%20C%20N%20budget.pdf

Pedro Colombo. Modélisation des écoulements d’eaux denses à travers des seuils topographiques dans les modèles réalistes de circulation océanique: une démonstration du potentiel que représente l’hybridation d’une coordonnée géopotentielle et d’une coordonnée suivant le terrain. Sciences de la Terre. Université Grenoble Alpes, 2018.

How to cite: Bruciaferri, D., Guiavarc'h, C., Hewitt, H., Harle, J., Almansi, M., and Mathiot, P.: Improving nordic overflows representation in global ocean models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4072, 2022.

EGU22-4440 | Presentations | OS1.7

The weakening of AMOC highly linked to climate warming outside the Arctic 

Jiao Chen, Xidong Wang, and Xuezhu Wang

Global warming since the industrial revolution has led to a series of changes in the atmosphere and ocean. As a key indicator of global ocean circulation, AMOC has shown a weakening in recent decades from both the observed and simulated results. This process which is not only affected by the local variation of the Arctic, but also by the ocean and atmosphere circulation changes in the middle and lower latitudes, might have important implications for future global climate changes. We employ the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM 1.1 LR) and a method of perturbing coupled models to quantify and understand the impact of anthropogenic warming on the slowdown of AMOC. Conducted one control (CTRL) experiment and three sensitivity experiments (60N, 60NS, and GLOB) in which CO2 concentration were abruptly quadrupled either regionally (60N-north of 60°N, 60NS-south of 60°N) or globally (GLOB). The goal of our research is to identify the response of AMOC weakening to the quadrupling of CO2 concentration in different regions and provide future insight into ocean circulation changes in the context of climate warming. Our results show that CO2 forcing outside the Arctic dominates the weakening of AMOC. In a warming climate, the poleward heat transport increased due to the extra-Arctic CO2 forcing, which enhanced the upper ocean average stratification within the mixed-layer depth over Nordic Seas and Labrador Sea and thus weakens the AMOC to a large extent. The warming in upper-layer also lead to the dominant role of temperature contribution to stratification. However, in both the deep convection regions, the mechanism resulting in the strengthening of stratification might be quite different.

How to cite: Chen, J., Wang, X., and Wang, X.: The weakening of AMOC highly linked to climate warming outside the Arctic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4440, 2022.

EGU22-4731 | Presentations | OS1.7

Variability in Irminger Sea convection and hydrography from 2003 through 2020 

Femke de Jong, Isabela Le Bras, Leah Trafford McRaven, Miriam Sterl, Elodie Duyck, and Nora Fried

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system. Results from the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) moored array show that the largest contribution to both the total overturning and its variability originates from the Irminger Sea and Iceland Basin. Deep convection in the Irminger Sea strongly impacts the transformation of buoyant to dense waters. Additionally, its localization in the center of the basin directly affects the basin’s horizontal density gradients that drive transport. However, the strength of convection varies greatly from winter to winter and is expected to weaken as a result of strengthening stratification forced by climate change. How exactly the Irminger Sea convection responds to stratification versus forcing is not known.

The LOCO (Long-term Ocean Circulation Observations) mooring recorded convection in the central Irminger Sea from 2003 through 2018. This record is now continued by the OOI (Ocean Observatory Initiative) mooring, deployed nearby in 2014. The combined record of the two moorings showcase the variability of Irminger Sea convection through this 17-year period. This includes the deepest (>1600 m) convection observed in the basin, forced by the exceptionally strong winter of 2014-2015, as well as several winters (in 2010-2011 and 2019-2020) where convection was inhibited by strong upper ocean stratification. The Irminger Sea hydrography changed as a result. The basin warmed and became more saline and stratified during the initial period with weak convection. This trend was halted during the intermittent convection in the mid-2010s. After 2014-2015, the upper 1500 m of the basin cooled and became fresher as a result of stronger convection in the subsequent winter, which led to denser water classes and weaker upper to mid-ocean stratification in the center of the basin. These hydrographic changes and their impact on the cross-basin density gradients are reflected in the Irminger Current transport.

The long record of the Irminger Sea hydrography shows the respective influence of atmospheric buoyancy forcing versus stratification on deep convection. In terms of stratification, we see the effects of both ocean memory in the upper 1500 m of the water column, during prolonged periods of weak or strong convection, and more sudden changes in the uppermost (~100 m) ocean. These insights will help to better predict how Irminger Sea convection will respond to future stratification changes.

How to cite: de Jong, F., Le Bras, I., Trafford McRaven, L., Sterl, M., Duyck, E., and Fried, N.: Variability in Irminger Sea convection and hydrography from 2003 through 2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4731, 2022.

EGU22-5025 | Presentations | OS1.7

Drivers of heat and freshwater content changes in the North Atlantic 

Levke Caesar and Gerard McCarthy

Over the past years the North Atlantic has been the main scene of three interesting phenomena: a long-term warming hole (i.e. Drijfhout et al., 2012), a reoccurring cold blob (i.e. Duchez et al., 2016) and an unusual freshening in recent years (Holliday et al., 2020).

All three have been linked to either changes in ocean circulation causing i.e., anomalous heat transports, atmospheric circulation changes that, i.e., lead to enhanced surface heat loss or changes in precipitation patterns, – or a combination of the two. While it appears that the main drivers of these phenomena have been identified, the relative importance of them as well as the connections between the three are still unclear.

To assess this, we study the correlation of the main atmospheric and oceanic drivers in the North Atlantic region and the upper ocean heat (OHC) and freshwater content (FWC). By looking at OHC and FWC we remove some of the noise visible in the sea surface data, and it further enables us to remove the direct influence of the atmosphere by subtracting the heat and freshwater air-sea fluxes from the data.

The results indicate that long-term changes in the western subpolar North Atlantic are caused by the direct effects of changes in the atmosphere, while the eastern subpolar North Atlantic is more strongly influenced by changes in the ocean circulation causing a simultaneous cooling/freshening or warming/salinification, respectively. This has e.g., implications for the definition of temperature or salinity based AMOC indices (as used in e.g., Boers, 2021; Caesar et al., 2018) that often average quantities over the whole or even just the western subpolar North Atlantic. These should be redefined focusing on the eastern part.  

References

Boers, N. (2021). Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Nature Climate Change, 11(8), 680-688. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., & Saba, V. (2018). Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature, 556(7700), 191-196. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5

Drijfhout, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., & Cimatoribus, A. (2012). Is a Decline of AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns? Journal of Climate, 25(24), 8373-8379. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00490.1

Duchez, A., Frajka-Williams, E., Josey, S. A., Evans, D. G., Grist, J. P., Marsh, R., . . . Hirschi, J. J. M. (2016). Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7), 074004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074004

Holliday, N. P., Bersch, M., Berx, B., Chafik, L., Cunningham, S., Florindo-López, C., . . . Yashayaev, I. (2020). Ocean circulation causes the largest freshening event for 120 years in eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Nature Communications, 11(1), 585. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14474-y

How to cite: Caesar, L. and McCarthy, G.: Drivers of heat and freshwater content changes in the North Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5025, 2022.

The 20th century “early warming” (1910-1940) and cooling (1940-1970) of the Northern Hemisphere offer an interesting contrast of periods with opposite temperature trends, similar hemispheric temperature anomalies, yet very different temperature anomaly patterns. These contrasts are particularly clear in the North Atlantic sector, which exhibits large climate variability over a range of time scales, from short (weather regimes) to long (Atlantic Multidecadal Variability). In this study, we explore the role of the atmospheric circulation (North Atlantic jet stream) in determining the temperature anomaly patterns over the 20th century. While different jet configurations are associated with distinct synoptic temperature patterns in the North Atlantic sector, only some are found to contribute substantially to longer term temperature trends. Notably, the southern jet configuration has the strongest temperature anomalies, with a dipole signal that is opposite from the one under the tilted jet configuration. At the same time, these two jet configurations exhibit relatively large decadal variations in frequency (days of occurrence in given winter seasons), with trends that are almost the opposite. In fact, changes in the frequency of southern and tilted jet “days” alone account for much of the North Atlantic and Arctic temperature variability on decadal time scales, including the differences between the early warming and cooling periods (e.g., the flipped warming versus cooling patterns are associated with fewer southern jet days and more tilted jet days). However, the reconstruction skill of the 30-year mean temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic sector using jet frequency exhibits decadal variability, with high skill scores interestingly coinciding with the positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. The lower reconstruction skill especially during the global warming period from the1980s onwards is likely due to the impact from the warming hole in the North Atlantic, which dominates the temperature patterns in the North Atlantic. Overall, the evolution of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature over the 20th century is found to be influenced by North Atlantic jet variability, with lower frequency ocean effects contributing more in recent decades.

How to cite: Tao, D., Madonna, E., and Li, C.: Using atmospheric variability to understand the wintertime regional warming and cooling patterns in the North Atlantic Sector, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5057, 2022.

EGU22-5088 | Presentations | OS1.7

Interannual variability in Sargassum seaweed transport from the Sargasso Sea to the equatorial Atlantic and Caribbean Sea 

Sophie Durston, Jason Holt, Judith Wolf, Christine Gommenginger, Dan Grosvenor, and Samantha Lavender

Since 2011, Caribbean beaches have been regularly swamped by large quantities of a floating seaweed called Sargassum. Blooms of Sargasssum form large mats in the equatorial Atlantic and at their peak can span from the Gulf of Mexico to west coast of Africa, forming the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt (GASB). Sargassum beaching events have significant environmental and socio-economic impacts, including impacts on fisheries, tourism, nesting marine animals, and coral reefs. Prior to 2011, Sargassum was predominantly found entrained within the currents of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre in the Sargasso Sea. It is thought that an extreme negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in 2010/2011 may have produced conditions in the Sargasso Sea that allowed Sargassum to escape and populate further south. The NAO impacts the strength and direction of winds over the Atlantic and modulates ocean properties such as sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth. Could a change in wind and ocean circulation in 2010 and 2011 explain how Sargassum escaped the ocean gyre as an extreme one-off event? In this study, Lagrangian particle tracking simulations are used to investigate the likelihood of Sargassum leaving the Sargasso Sea between 2009 and 2021, using a velocity field from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) GLORYS12V1 reanalysis. The study’s results show interannual variability in the escape of particles eastwards from the Sargasso Sea into the equatorial Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.

How to cite: Durston, S., Holt, J., Wolf, J., Gommenginger, C., Grosvenor, D., and Lavender, S.: Interannual variability in Sargassum seaweed transport from the Sargasso Sea to the equatorial Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5088, 2022.

EGU22-5135 | Presentations | OS1.7

Do salinity variations along the East Greenland shelf show imprints of increasing meltwater runoff? 

Ilana Schiller-Weiss, Torge Martin, Arne Biastoch, and Johannes Karstensen

Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is considered to become a tipping point in the freshwater balance of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). The ramifications of increased freshwater input have been projected to reduce deep convection in neighboring Labrador and Irminger Seas. The East Greenland Current is a primary pathway for transporting Arctic-sourced freshwater and Greenland glacial meltwater into the SPNA. Understanding the variability of the East Greenland (Coastal) Current (EGC/EGCC) is of high importance, as it contains the first imprint of ice melt which flows directly into the current when entering the open ocean. 

We performed a cross sectional analysis of salinity and temperature along the eastern Greenland shelf using output from an eddy-rich (1/20o) ocean model (VIKING20X), which is forced with time-varying Greenland freshwater fluxes (Bamber et al., 2018), and the observational-based reanalysis product (GLORYS12V1 [1/12o]) from 1993 to 2019. A time varying mask referenced to a salinity threshold of ≤ 34.8 psu was used to isolate the EGC close to the shelf at five locations for both winter (JFM) and summer (JAS) months. Selected locations are major ocean gateways, glacier outlets/fjords, and observing arrays: Fram Strait, Denmark Strait, just south of 66oN (Helheim/~Sermilik) and 63.5oN (Bernstorff), and OSNAP East extending up to the central Irminger Sea. Export of polar water from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait sets the initial, low salinity signature in the EGC, which mixes with Atlantic water further downstream and increases in salinity. However, in our simulation, we find lower salinity values again south of Denmark Strait in summer with some notable fresh imprints of extreme meltwater runoff in individual years, such as 2010 and 2012. Furthermore, we observe that for all the cross sections, excluding Fram Strait, there is a negative trend in salinity from 1993 to 2010 followed by a decade in which the salinity trend at Denmark Strait and further south decouples from that in Fram Strait in winter and summer. We explore the reasons for the temporal variations in salinity (and temperature) along the East Greenland Shelf and the potential of different data products to show early imprints of enhanced meltwater runoff into the EGC.

How to cite: Schiller-Weiss, I., Martin, T., Biastoch, A., and Karstensen, J.: Do salinity variations along the East Greenland shelf show imprints of increasing meltwater runoff?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5135, 2022.

EGU22-5162 | Presentations | OS1.7

Multi-decadal and centennial modes of AMOC variability and their dependence on mean state in a climate model 

Alexey Fedorov, Brady Ferster, Juliette Mignot, and Eric Guilyardi

Climate models exhibit large differences in the mean state and variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), including in AMOC strength and the characteristic amplitude and frequency of its variability. Across different GCMs, AMOC long-term variability ranges from decadal to multi-centennial and its magnitude from a fraction of to several Sverdrups (Sv). In this study, we conduct ensemble experiments, using the latest coupled model from Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM6A-LR), to investigate systematically how AMOC variability depends on the AMOC mean state. In the control simulations of this model AMOC mean volume transport is about 12Sv, while AMOC variability is dominated by two distinct modes – a multi-decadal mode with periodicity between 20-30 years and a centennial mode with periods of 100-200 years. The former mode is weaker and driven by temperature variations, while the latter is stronger and driven by salinity anomalies. To modify the mean state of the AMOC in the model we use an indirect method based on robust atmospheric teleconnections from the tropical Indian ocean (TIO) to the Atlantic as described in two recent studies (Hu and Fedorov, 2019; Ferster et al., 2021). Both studies have shown that warming the TIO results in an increased AMOC strength, while cooling the TIO results in a weakened AMOC. To change the Indian ocean temperature in our perturbation experiments we nudge TIO SST by -2°C, -1°C, +1°C, and +2°C; and the experiments last for approximately 1000 years. This allows us to go from a nearly collapsed AMOC state below 3Sv to a more realistic mean state of about 16Sv. We find that both modes of AMOC variability persist throughout the experiments while their amplitude increases almost linearly with AMOC mean strength, yielding linear relationships between the amplitude of variability (standard deviation) and AMOC mean strength of +0.04 Sv per 1 Sv and +0.07 Sv per 1 Sv, respectively. In the experiments that generate 16Sv of AMOC transport, the amplitudes of the two modes reach nearly 0.7 and 1.4Sv. Lastly, we compare the dynamical mechanisms of the two modes and their climate impacts. A corollary of this study is that in this model, a stronger AMOC would lead to stronger climate variability.

How to cite: Fedorov, A., Ferster, B., Mignot, J., and Guilyardi, E.: Multi-decadal and centennial modes of AMOC variability and their dependence on mean state in a climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5162, 2022.

EGU22-5694 | Presentations | OS1.7

Contribution of the Atlantic Ocean to European Heat Extremes 

Lara Hellmich, Daniela Matei, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Wolfgang A. Müller
Mechanisms explaining the internal variability of mean summer temperatures have been
found on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales, but their contribution to variability
in extreme temperatures is not fully established. Here, we investigate the sub-decadal (5-
10yr) variability of European summer heat extremes and their potential drivers. By using
reanalyses (ERA5/ORA-20C) and the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), we
identify dominant timescales of temperature extremes variability over Europe. We are able
to link heat extremes over Central Europe with a southward development of a meridional
ocean heat transport anomaly over the North Atlantic (NA), starting about 6 years prior an
extreme event. This connection is reinforced by other variables such as ocean heat content
and atmospheric sea level pressure and jet stream displacement. The results indicate the
important role of the inertia of the NA for the occurrence of heat extremes over Europe, and
possibly help to improve their predictability several years ahead.

How to cite: Hellmich, L., Matei, D., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., and Müller, W. A.: Contribution of the Atlantic Ocean to European Heat Extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5694, 2022.

EGU22-5829 | Presentations | OS1.7

Seasonal differences in the persistence of SST’s Response to the North Atlantic Jet Stream 

Jennifer Mecking, Bablu Sinha, Ben Harvey, Jon Robson, and Tom Bracegirdle

The North Atlantic Jet Stream is well known to leave an imprint on the North Atlantic SST in the form of a tri-polar pattern.  The majority of the existing research has focused on the winter jet stream position or strength of the jet stream.  Here we look at the response of the North Atlantic SSTs to the strength and position of the North Atlantic Jet Stream across all seasons in the CMIP6 piControl simulations.  For the case of both the strength and position of the jet stream the multi-model mean response is a tripolar SST pattern, with the response to the changes in strength showing a slight horseshoe pattern with the northern and southern most anomalies connected on the east and most evident in the summer.  The SST response to winter and spring jet stream changes persist the longest with the northern most imprint on the SSTs lasting up to 2 years.  The response to changes in the jet stream in the summer and fall leave an imprint on the SSTs lasting atmost into the following year.   Furthermore, we investigate at how these responses vary among the CMIP6 models and potential mechanisms leading to the persistence.

How to cite: Mecking, J., Sinha, B., Harvey, B., Robson, J., and Bracegirdle, T.: Seasonal differences in the persistence of SST’s Response to the North Atlantic Jet Stream, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5829, 2022.

Even in models with vertical sidewalls, bottom pressure torques balance the wind stress curl in a zonal integral, with local modification from nonlinear terms. This can be seen explicitly in Stommel's classic 1948 solution in which, unusually, the sea level was calculated as well as the barotropic streamfunction. Here, I explore what this and other idealised solutions tell us about how coastal sea level relates to gyre circulations, western boundary currents, and simple overturning circulations. I show that the coastal sea level signal related to the gyre (or, particularly, to changes in the gyre) need not be stronger at the western boundary. I also show that, although details of where dissipation occurs can be very important for coastal sea level when sloping sidewalls are accounted for, they are much less important for the boundary bottom pressure torque (in the vertical sidewall case, sea level and torque are closely related, so the influence of dissipation on sea level is diminished). Although the real ocean will inevitably be more complex than these ideal cases, consideration of them does alter common assumptions about how coastal sea level is likely to respond to changing circulation patterns, in response to changing climatic forcing.

 

How to cite: Hughes, C. W.: Sea level, bottom pressure, gyres and overturning: lessons from classical models., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5908, 2022.

Climate model biases in the North Atlantic (NA) low-level tropospheric westerly jet are a major impediment to reliably representing variability of the NA climate system and its wider influence, in particular over western Europe. We highlight an early-winter equatorward jet bias in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) models and assess whether this bias is reduced in the CMIP6 models in comparison to the CMIP5 models. Historical simulations from the CMIP5 and CMIP6  are further compared against reanalysis data over the period 1862-2005.  

The results show that an equatorward bias remains significant in CMIP6 models in early winter. Almost all CMIP5 and CMIP6 model realizations exhibit equatorward climatological jet latitude biases with ensemble mean biases of 3.0° (November) and 3.0° (December) for CMIP5 and 2.5° and 2.2° for CMIP6. This represents an approximately one-fifth reduction for CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. The equatorward jet latitude bias is mainly associated with a weaker-than-observed frequency of poleward daily-weekly excursions of the jet to its northern position. A potential explanation is provided.  Our results indicate a strong link between NA jet latitude bias and systematically too-weak model-simulated low-level baroclinicity over eastern North America in early-winter.  

Implications for model representation of NA atmosphere-ocean linkages will be presented. In particular CMIP models with larger equatorward jet biases tend to exhibit weaker correlations between temporal variability in jet speed and sea surface conditions over the NA sub-polar gyre (SPG). This has implications for the ability of climate models to represent key aspects of atmospheric variability and predictability that are associated with atmosphere-ocean interactions in the SPG region.  

How to cite: Bracegirdle, T., Lu, H., and Robson, J.: Equatorward North Atlantic jet biases in CMIP models and implications for simulated regional atmosphere-ocean linkages, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6401, 2022.

EGU22-6750 | Presentations | OS1.7

Effect of Climatic Precession on Dansgaard-Oeschger-like oscillations 

Yuta Kuniyoshi, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Wing-Le Chan, and Fuyuki Saito

Using the climate model MIROC4m, we simulate self-sustained oscillations of millennial-scale periodicity in the climate and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under glacial conditions. We show two cases of extreme climatic precession and examine the mechanism of these oscillations. When the climatic precession corresponds to strong (weak) boreal seasonality, the period of the oscillation is about 1,500 (3,000) years. During the stadial, hot (cool) summer conditions in the Northern Hemisphere contribute to thin (thick) sea ice, which covers the deep convection sites, triggering early (late) abrupt climate change. During the interstadial, as sea ice is thin (thick), cold deep-water forms and cools the subsurface quickly (slowly), which influences the stratification of the North Atlantic Ocean. We show that the oscillations are explained by the internal feedbacks of the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system, especially subsurface ocean temperature change and salt advection feedback with a positive feedback between the subpolar gyre and deep convection.

How to cite: Kuniyoshi, Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Chan, W.-L., and Saito, F.: Effect of Climatic Precession on Dansgaard-Oeschger-like oscillations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6750, 2022.

EGU22-7216 | Presentations | OS1.7

Observed changes and coherence in the Gulf Stream system 

Helene Asbjørnsen, Tor Eldevik, and Helen L. Johnson

The steady supply of warm Gulf Stream water to subpolar latitudes is crucial for maintaining a mild, maritime climate in north-western Europe. Ongoing anthropogenic climate change has prompted the oceanographic community to ask whether a slowdown of the North Atlantic circulation has occurred as a response to changes in heat and freshwater fluxes. The question has also caught the attention of policy makers and the media. However, climate models, ocean transport measurements, and paleo and proxy reconstructions show large discrepancies regarding the ‘state’ of the North Atlantic circulation over the historical period. Here, we use available measurements of North Atlantic and Nordic Seas circulation strength to discuss and reflect on potential circulation slowdown. The measurements indicate a stable circulation, but the short record makes distinguishing potential long-term trends from interannual and decadal variability difficult. The sensitivity seen in literature to methodology, data type, region, and time period over which trends are evaluated, demonstrates the lack of robust evidence for a circulation slowdown. The findings warrant caution and nuance in terms of interpreting and communicating research on past and future changes in North Atlantic circulation strength.  

How to cite: Asbjørnsen, H., Eldevik, T., and L. Johnson, H.: Observed changes and coherence in the Gulf Stream system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7216, 2022.

EGU22-7301 | Presentations | OS1.7

On the structure and sensitivity of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation 

Johanne Skrefsrud, Tor Eldevik, Marius Årthun, and Helene Asbjørnsen

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are often assumed to lead to equivalent changes in poleward ocean heat transport. Such an assumption leaves only a small role for the ocean gyres in transporting heat poleward. Here, the structure and sensitivity of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation are investigated with a focus on the comparative role of the horizontal and the vertical circulation components. We use the ECCOv4-r4 ocean state estimate for the period 1992-2017 to evaluate the gyre and overturning contribution in terms of northward volume transport, poleward heat transport, and freshwater transport. The total poleward heat transport increases from the equatorial region northward with a maximum of about 1 PW around 15N, followed by a gradual decrease northward disrupted by another maximum of about 0.5 PW at 50-60N. An important contribution from both the gyre and overturning components is seen at subtropical latitudes, though the components are notably not independent of each other. From about 50N, the gyre component is found to be the dominant contributor to poleward heat transport and equatorward freshwater transport. The results indicate that the gyre circulation in the North Atlantic cannot be ignored in the discussion of mechanisms behind poleward ocean heat transport. 

How to cite: Skrefsrud, J., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., and Asbjørnsen, H.: On the structure and sensitivity of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7301, 2022.

EGU22-7402 | Presentations | OS1.7

Diversity in NAO-AMOC interaction on interannual to decadal timescales across CMIP6 models 

Annika Reintges, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Stephen Yeager

The variations of the winter climate in Europe are influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Therefore, the ability to predict the NAO is of great value. Predictability of the NAO can be enabled through oceanic processes that are characterized by relatively long time scales, for example interannual to decadal. An important variable for the interannual to (multi-)decadal variability in the North Atlantic is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The NAO and the AMOC are known to interact, but observational records of the AMOC are short and the details of this interaction are unknown. Thus, our understanding largely relies on climate model simulations. However, the interaction of NAO and AMOC is very model dependent.

Here, we present the diversity across CMIP6 models in pre-industrial control experiments. The focus lies on simulations of the NAO, the AMOC, their interaction, and related variables on interannual to decadal timescales. Regarding the NAO-AMOC interaction, there are large differences in the strength of their relationship, in the location (like the latitude of the AMOC), its periodicity and in the time-lag between both variables.

Furthermore, we propose hypotheses of the causes for this diversity in the models. Specific processes involved in NAO-AMOC interaction might be of varying relative importance from model to model, for example, NAO-related buoyancy versus wind-forcing affecting the AMOC. Also, mean state difference like in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature might play an important role for causing differences in the variability across models.

How to cite: Reintges, A., Robson, J., Sutton, R., and Yeager, S.: Diversity in NAO-AMOC interaction on interannual to decadal timescales across CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7402, 2022.

EGU22-7464 | Presentations | OS1.7

Mechanisms of centennial AMOC variability in a climate model of intermediate complexity 

Oliver Mehling, Michela Angeloni, Katinka Bellomo, and Jost von Hardenberg

Centennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic is characterized by the absence of a clear external forcing. Hence, identifying mechanisms of internal variability at these timescales is crucial to understand low-frequency climate variations. For this task, long control simulations with coupled climate models represent a key tool.

Although significant spectral peaks in centennial variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) were found among some state-of-the-art models, CMIP6 models disagree on the amplitude, periodicity and even existence of centennial AMOC variability. This disagreement motivates the use of models of reduced complexity with idealized setups and perturbed physics ensembles to elucidate the mechanisms of AMOC variability at long timescales.

Here, we investigate multi-millennial piControl simulations of PlaSim-LSG, an earth system model intermediate complexity (EMIC). For a range of vertical oceanic diffusion parameters, PlaSim-LSG exhibits strong oscillations of AMOC strength, as well as of salinity and surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, with a period of about 270 years.

Lag correlation analysis shows that a positive feedback involving the interplay of surface salinity, freshwater flux and sea ice concentration in the Norwegian Sea and the Arctic Ocean is the key driver behind these oscillations. In contrast to previous studies with other models, interhemispheric coupling only plays a minor role. We discuss preliminary results of sensitivity experiments for testing the proposed mechanism, and compare our results with previously proposed mechanisms of AMOC oscillations in CMIP6 models.

How to cite: Mehling, O., Angeloni, M., Bellomo, K., and von Hardenberg, J.: Mechanisms of centennial AMOC variability in a climate model of intermediate complexity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7464, 2022.

EGU22-8330 | Presentations | OS1.7

Shoreward Migration of the Shelfbreak Front in the Middle Atlantic Bight 

Svenja Ryan and Glen Gawarkiewicz

The Northwest Atlantic continental shelf is home to one of the richest ecosystems in the world, however it is also among the fastest warming regions globally and experienced multiple temperature extreme events, termed marine heatwaves, in the recent decade. These ongoing changes pose a large challenge for the highly valuable fishing industry in the Northeast U.S.. The generally cooler and fresher shelf water is supplied by subpolar waters via the Labrador current, while offshore waters in the Slope Sea, that is the continental slope region bounded by the Gulf Stream and the shelfbreak, are of subtropical origin. Warm core rings shedding of the Gulf Stream transport warm and saline water but also nutrients shoreward and frequently cause cross-shelf intrusions when interacting with bathymetry. The boundary of the two water masses is the Shelfbreak Front and the foot of the front is climatologically found over the 100\,m isobath in the northern Middle Atlantic Bight. While marking a transition of physical properties, the front and its position has also large implications for fisheries as temperate species are found shoreward of the front and more tropical species remain offshore of the front in the warm, saline waters. Monitoring the frontal position is challenging and requires high-resolution sampling, however large and persistent diversions may be detectable in coarser and more sporadic observations. Using data from the Coastal Pioneer Array by the Ocean Observative Initiative along with recent observations obtained during research cruises on the continental shelf and satellite-based sea surface salinity, we assess indicators of the frontal position in recent years. In 2021 the front migrated tens of km inshore for multiple months resulting in irregularities for the regional fishermen. This migration was likely connected to the presence of multiple warm core rings in the Slope Sea, driving record temperatures over the slope and shelf. We address the question whether similar frontal shifts occur more frequently and discuss how these maybe connected to larger scale forcing such as a shifting Gulf Stream, a slowing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or changes in the supply of subpolar water to the shelf.

How to cite: Ryan, S. and Gawarkiewicz, G.: Shoreward Migration of the Shelfbreak Front in the Middle Atlantic Bight, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8330, 2022.

EGU22-8436 | Presentations | OS1.7

The Irminger Gyre as a key driver of AMOC variability in the subpolar North Atlantic 

Alejandra Sanchez-Franks and Penny Holliday

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is key in regulating the global climate system through a large-scale system of currents transporting warm waters northward and cooler waters southward. The Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) has been measuring the AMOC directly since 2014, demonstrating that water mass transformation within the eastern subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas dominate AMOC variability in the subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we use OSNAP data to further analyse the AMOC in this region. We find that the North Atlantic Current (NAC) accounts for over 72% of the variability in the upper limb of the AMOC. The easternmost branches of the NAC (over the Rockall Plateau and Trough) account for the majority of the AMOC variability (~38%), even though the westernmost branches account for more than half the mean transport (~10 Sv). The lower limb of the AMOC is found to have a statistically meaningful connection to the circulation in the interior of the Irminger basin, i.e. the Irminger Gyre, accounting for ~38% of the AMOC variability. During the OSNAP time period, a prominent feature of the Irminger basin is a layer of low potential vorticity (PV) in the intermediate water density classes. Further observations (ARMOR3D) show that changes in intermediate water thickness in the Irminger basin are connected to AMOC variability (r = 0.60). We hypothesise a buoyancy-driven mechanism connecting the Irminger Gyre with AMOC variability, where an increase in intermediate water layer thickness in the Irminger basin inhibits the northward recirculation of the Irminger Gyre, leading to a strengthening of the subpolar AMOC.

How to cite: Sanchez-Franks, A. and Holliday, P.: The Irminger Gyre as a key driver of AMOC variability in the subpolar North Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8436, 2022.

EGU22-8888 | Presentations | OS1.7

An Atmospheric Bridge Between the Subpolar and Tropical Atlantic Regions:A Perplexing Asymmetric Teleconnection 

Seung Hun Baek, Yochanan Kushnir, Walter Robinson, Juan Lora, Dong Eun Lee, and Mingfang Ting

The largest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) occur over the Atlantic subpolar gyre, yet it is the tropical Atlantic from where the global impacts of AMV originate. Processes that communicate SST change from the subpolar Atlantic gyre to the tropical North Atlantic thus comprise a crucial mechanism of AMV. Here we use idealized model experiments to show that such communication is accomplished by an “atmospheric bridge.” Our results demonstrate an unexpected asymmetry: the atmosphere is effective in communicating cold subpolar SSTs to the north tropical Atlantic, via an immediate extratropical atmospheric circulation change that invokes slower wind-driven evaporative cooling along the Eastern Atlantic Basin and into the tropics. Warm subpolar SST anomalies do not elicit a robust tropical Atlantic response. Our results highlight a key dynamical feature of AMV for which warm and cold phases are not opposites.

How to cite: Baek, S. H., Kushnir, Y., Robinson, W., Lora, J., Lee, D. E., and Ting, M.: An Atmospheric Bridge Between the Subpolar and Tropical Atlantic Regions:A Perplexing Asymmetric Teleconnection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8888, 2022.

EGU22-9395 | Presentations | OS1.7

The role of Irminger Rings for biogeochemical tracer advection in the Labrador Sea. 

Ahmad Fehmi Dilmahamod, Katja Fennel, Arnaud Laurent, and Johannes Karstensen

The Labrador Sea is one of two major sites of the subpolar North Atlantic where deep convection occurs in wintertime as the ambient stratification is weakened through surface cooling and the water column homogenized to up to 2000 m depth. Deep convection has important biogeochemical implications, for example, the ventilation of the deep ocean through the formation of Labrador Sea Water, when convective mixing brings deep-water, undersaturated in oxygen, in contact with the atmosphere. Oceanic eddies in the Labrador Sea, in particular Irminger Rings, are known to transport heat and freshwater from the boundary current towards the central basin. This process regulates the strength of convection by influencing the preconditioning and restratification processes, hence modulating the production of Labrador Sea Water. However, the impact of these eddies on lateral biogeochemical fluxes between the coastal and open Labrador Sea, including the regions where deep convection is most pronounced, remains elusive. In this study, a high-resolution (1/12°) coupled biogeochemical-physical model of the northwest North Atlantic is employed to investigate the role of these eddies for lateral transport of biogeochemical constituents in the three distinct regions: eastern and western boundary and the central Labrador Sea. Oxygen, nutrient, and carbon budgets for these regions will be presented with an emphasis on horizontal and vertical transports, and mean and eddy-driven advection. The results of the biogeochemical budgets will be compared with those from the heat and freshwater budgets.

How to cite: Dilmahamod, A. F., Fennel, K., Laurent, A., and Karstensen, J.: The role of Irminger Rings for biogeochemical tracer advection in the Labrador Sea., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9395, 2022.

EGU22-10212 | Presentations | OS1.7

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation forcing the mean sea level in the Mediterranean Sea through the Gibraltar transport 

Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Andrea Cipollone, Deep Sankar Banerjee, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Karina von Schuckmann, Laura Jackson, Romain Escudier, Emanuela Clementi, Alí Aydogdu, and Doroteaciro Iovino

Understanding the causes of the variability of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean overturning circulations, and the possible correlation between them is important to disentangle the processes which link the two ocean basins. In this study, we hypothesize that the Gibraltar inflow transport is the main driver of the basin-mean sea surface height variability in the Mediterranean Sea and that they are both anti-correlated to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the North Atlantic.

We analyze here the AMOC and the Mediterranean mean sea surface height (SSH) in an ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses and the Gibraltar inflow transport using an eddy-resolving Mediterranean Reanalysis over the period 1993-2019. In this contribution, firstly we extend the results obtained in past literature with observations (2004-2017 period) and confirm the anti-correlation between the Mediterranean mean sea level and the upper branch of the AMOC at 26.5°N over the 1993-2019 period. Secondly, for the first time, we examine the correlation of the different components of the AMOC and the Gibraltar inflow transport and find significant anti-correlations at interannual time scales.

We show that during years of weaker/stronger AMOC and higher/lower SSH in the Mediterranean Sea, a stronger/weaker Azores Current results in stronger/weaker Gibraltar inflow transport. We argue that the anticorrelation between AMOC and the mean sea level of the Mediterranean Sea is explained by the anticorrelation between AMOC and the Gibraltar inflow transport which in turn is changed by the wind driven Azores current strength.

How to cite: Masina, S., Pinardi, N., Cipollone, A., Banerjee, D. S., Lyubartsev, V., von Schuckmann, K., Jackson, L., Escudier, R., Clementi, E., Aydogdu, A., and Iovino, D.: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation forcing the mean sea level in the Mediterranean Sea through the Gibraltar transport, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10212, 2022.

EGU22-10282 | Presentations | OS1.7

Using CMIP6 simulations to assess significance of an AMOC trend seen by the RAPID array 

David Straub, Richard Kelson, and Carolina Dufour

Observations between 2004 and 2020 at the RAPID array suggest a weakening trend in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To assess the significance of this trend, trends that one might expect from natural variabilty in a time series of this length are assessed using CMIP6 pre-industrial simulations. The observed trend is not found to be statistically significant relative to this benchmark. Both the observed trend and the standard 
deviation of short-term model trends are found to decrease in magnitude with time. The rate of decrease, however, is faster for the observed trend, further calling into question its significance.

To clarify how variability in short-term model trends is related to power spectra of modelled AMOC strength, a conceptual model is developed. Essentially, trend variance is represented by a random walk in which there is one step for each frequency bin of the power spectrum (with step size determined by the frequency and variance of the bin in question). Most models are found underestimate interannual variability in AMOC strength; however, it is the variability at somewhat longer time scales that most influences model trends. This variability is represented quite differently between the various CMIP6 models. The conceptual model is also used to illustrate how the detectability threshold for trend detection (i.e., the 2 sigma level in a PDF of short-term model trends) is altered by the addition of noise added to make AMOC variance more in line with observations. 

 

How to cite: Straub, D., Kelson, R., and Dufour, C.: Using CMIP6 simulations to assess significance of an AMOC trend seen by the RAPID array, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10282, 2022.

EGU22-10294 | Presentations | OS1.7

An advanced coupled modelling system to study interactions among the circulation, sea ice, and biogeochemistry in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean 

Kyoko Ohashi, Arnaud Laurent, Christoph Renkl, Fehmi Dilmahamod, Shengmu Yang, Katja Fennel, Eric Oliver, and Jinyu Sheng

The Northwest Atlantic (NWA) plays a critical role in the global ocean circulation and regulates the global climate system through meridional transport in western boundary currents as well as through deep convection. Global climate change is projected to significantly impact ocean circulation, vertical mixing, and sea ice dynamics in the NWA, with important implications for the area’s biological productivity and carbon export. These physical and biological features and their variabilities are challenging to numerical ocean models and often poorly represented in global climate models. This creates a difficulty in projecting future changes in nutrient dynamics, production, and carbon export. To address these challenges we have developed an advanced coupled circulation-sea ice-biogeochemistry modelling system for the NWA. This modelling system is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the Community Sea Ice Model (CICE), and a biogeochemical model including oxygen dynamics and carbon chemistry. The model domain spans the area from Cape Hatteras to Baffin Bay and from the east coast of North America to the central North Atlantic, with the horizontal grid resolution ranging from ~8 km in the south to ~2 km in the north. The circulation and sea ice models are forced by atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data at the surface and lateral boundaries, respectively. The circulation model is additionally forced by tides, river discharge, and continental runoff. Preliminary model results are presented and compared to various types of observations, with a focus over coastal waters and the deep convection region of the Labrador Sea.

How to cite: Ohashi, K., Laurent, A., Renkl, C., Dilmahamod, F., Yang, S., Fennel, K., Oliver, E., and Sheng, J.: An advanced coupled modelling system to study interactions among the circulation, sea ice, and biogeochemistry in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10294, 2022.

EGU22-10571 | Presentations | OS1.7

Assessing the wintertime NAO flavors contribution to wet/dry cycles over Western Europe across the recent past 

Amar Halifa-Marín, Enrique Pravia-Sarabia, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents an essential large-scale pattern of utmost importance in the understanding of the wintertime climate variability over North America and Eurasia. Despite a very large number of papers have disentangled the response of regional climate to its temporal changes, only recent works suggest that the role of spatial variability of NAO (NAO flavors) also demands attention (e.g. Rousi et al., 2020). These flavors are defined as the range of positions detected for the NAO action centers, which commonly locate over Iceland (Low) and Azores (High). This work analyses 1) the behaviour of NAO flavors (based on the first empirical orthogonal function -EOF- of Sea Level Pressure field, framed in -90W/40E/20N/80N and computed for chain 30-years periods) in the NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, and 2) precipitation observations registered in Western Europe (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2021), across the period 1851-2015. One of the main objectives of this contribution is to assess the potential links between NAO flavors and regional wet/dry cycles in the recent past. Results reveal a physically coherent response between this spatial variability of NAO and European precipitation records. Significant positive/negative anomalies of precipitation are distinguished during different NAO flavors, ranged from -40% to +30% compared to the full period average. Likewise, the changes of mean wind direction/speed at mid/low levels have been identified as a potential physical cause. Also, the complex orography contributes to the spatial differences between wet/dry regimes. It should be highlighted that those changes of precipitation have affected European societies and ecosystems. In the case of the Iberian Peninsula, the drastic/strong reduction of winter precipitation and run-off records since 1980s (Halifa-Marín et al., 2021) is attributed to an abrupt shift eastward of NAO low action center. This work thus sheds some light on the lack of knowledge about how NAO flavors contribute to the European climate variability, meanwhile it might help understanding the abrupt shifts on regional precipitation regimes.

Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the ECCE project (PID2020-115693RB-I00) of Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF/ FEDER Una manera de hacer Europa). A.H-M thanks his predoctoral contract FPU18/00824 to the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades of Spain. 

References

Halifa-Marín, A., Torres-Vázquez, M. Á., Pravia-Sarabia, E., Lemus-Cánovas, M., Montávez, J. P., and Jiménez-Guerrero, P.: Disentangling the scarcity of near-natural Iberian hydrological resources since 1980s: a multivariate-driven approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-565, in review, 2021.

Rousi, E., Rust, H. W., Ulbrich, U., & Anagnostopoulou, C.: Implications of winter NAO flavors on present and future European climate. Climate, 8(1), 13, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010013, 2020.

Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Domínguez-Castro, F., Murphy, C., Hannaford, J., Reig, F., Peña-Angulo, D., ... & El Kenawy, A.: Long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851–2018), International journal of climatology, 41, E690-E717, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6719, 2021.

How to cite: Halifa-Marín, A., Pravia-Sarabia, E., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Montávez, J. P.: Assessing the wintertime NAO flavors contribution to wet/dry cycles over Western Europe across the recent past, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10571, 2022.

EGU22-10712 | Presentations | OS1.7

Six years of continuous observations of the Deep Western Boundary Current from Cape Farewell 

Greg Koman, Amy Bower, Heather Furey, and Penny Holliday

Since 2014, the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) has maintained the first continuous Eulerian array across the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre to monitor changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).  The deep limb of the AMOC – the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) – forms in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre from the combination of cold, dense waters of Norwegian Sea origin with the ambient waters within the gyre.  Norwegian Sea Water enters the gyre by crossing southward over the Greenland Scotland Ridge as Denmark Strait Overflow Water to the west of Iceland and Iceland Scotland Overflow Water to the east.  As these waters descend into the Irminger and Iceland Basins (respectively), they entrain the surrounding waters, which are primarily comprised of Labrador Sea Water and Subpolar Mode Water, to increase their transport.  These waters mostly flow cyclonically along the bathymetry of the gyre before merging along the eastern flank of Greenland.  At the eastern tip of Greenland, near Cape Farewell, OSNAP maintains moorings consisting of current meters, acoustic doppler current profilers and temperature-salinity recorders to capture the transport of the DWBC.  This presentation will give new estimates of the DWBC from 6 years of OSNAP observations and shed new light into the current’s variability and long-term trend.  Previous observations at this location found 9-13 Sv of transport, including 10.8 Sv from the first two years of OSNAP data. 

How to cite: Koman, G., Bower, A., Furey, H., and Holliday, P.: Six years of continuous observations of the Deep Western Boundary Current from Cape Farewell, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10712, 2022.

EGU22-10730 | Presentations | OS1.7

Variability of the AMOC and water mass properties at the GO-SHIP OVIDE section over 2002-2018 

Pascale Lherminier, Herlé Mercier, Lidia Carracedo, Fiz F. Pérez, Anton Velo, Damien Desbruyères, Marta Lopez-Mozos, and Marcos Fontela

The OVIDE section, composed of a hundred top-to-bottom stations from Portugal to Greenland, has been visited biennially since 2002. Collected data show a strong variability of both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the water mass properties. The OVIDE-AMOC timeseries built upon the Argo array and altimetry has been updated and validated with the in-situ cruise estimates. It shows a strong seasonal variability and, on longer time scales, significant transition in 2014, from moderate (19 Sv) to strong (23 Sv) amplitude, along with the development of a fresh and cold anomaly in the upper 800m over the eastern subpolar Atlantic, discussed in the literature and observed at the OVIDE section. Through a composite analysis of both transport and property data, we compare the 2002-2012 OVIDE average with the 2014-2018 average and analyze the evolutions of the transports of the different water masses with special attention to LSW, which has been largely renewed since 2014 through deep convection in the western subpolar gyre. 

How to cite: Lherminier, P., Mercier, H., Carracedo, L., Pérez, F. F., Velo, A., Desbruyères, D., Lopez-Mozos, M., and Fontela, M.: Variability of the AMOC and water mass properties at the GO-SHIP OVIDE section over 2002-2018, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10730, 2022.

EGU22-11847 | Presentations | OS1.7

Chaotic variability of the North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water 

Olivier Narinc, Penduff Thierry, Maze Guillaume, and Leroux Stéphanie

Following the recommendations of CMIP6, some climate models have for the first time started using a resolution of 1/4° for their oceanic component. This is significant, as it means that large eddies are resolved (so-called eddy-permitting models), introducing chaotic variability in oceanic models. Observational studies of the North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) have found that not all of its variability can be explained by atmospheric variability. The STMW is a water mass formed by ventilation over the winter and is the most abundant T,S class of water in the surface North Atlantic. Consequently it plays a key role in air-sea exchanges over the basin. These elements have motivated the present model investigation of the STMW's ocean-driven (intrinsic) chaotic variability using a NEMO-based, 1/4°, 50-member ensemble simulation of the Northern Atlantic ocean. Using this dataset, six STMW-wide integrated variables are defined and analysed: total volume, and averaged potential vorticity, depth, temperature, salinity and density. The model solution is assessed against the ARMOR3D ocean reanalysis, based on in situ data collected from ARGO floats and satellite observations. The water mass' chaotic variability is estimated from the time-averaged ensemble standard deviation, and is compared to the total variability estimated from the ensemble mean of the temporal standard deviations of all members. Initial results show that chaotic variability is significant for STMW properties at interannual timescales, representing almost half of the total variability of its average temperature. A spectral analysis indicates that chaotic variability remains significant at longer timescales. This suggests that as climate models move towards finer spatial resolution in the ocean, oceanic chaos can be expected to introduce more variability at interannual and longer timescales. This study also highlights the necessity of a good parametrisation of this oceanic chaos in non-eddying ocean models.

How to cite: Narinc, O., Thierry, P., Guillaume, M., and Stéphanie, L.: Chaotic variability of the North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11847, 2022.

EGU22-11850 | Presentations | OS1.7

Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26°N and the design of the RAPID observing array 

David Smeed, Ben Moat, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Darren Rayner, Denis Volkov, and William Johns

The time series of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N has been extended to March 2020 and is now almost 16 years long.    During the period from 2004 to 2008 the AMOC was c. 2.5 Sv stronger than in the following years.   Since then, there has been significant interannual variability, but the AMOC has remained relatively weak compared with the first four years of observations. The design of the array was changed in 2020 so that continuous measurements are no longer made over the mid-Atlantic Ridge.  In this presentation we examine the impact of this change on the accuracy of the RAPID timeseries. We find that, although the mid-Atlantic ridge measurements have been important in determining the mean structure of the overturning streamfunction, the impact upon the variability of the streamfunction maximum is very small.   

How to cite: Smeed, D., Moat, B., Frajka-Williams, E., Rayner, D., Volkov, D., and Johns, W.: Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26°N and the design of the RAPID observing array, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11850, 2022.

EGU22-11978 | Presentations | OS1.7

North Atlantic CO2 sink variability revealed by the Go-Ship A25-OVIDE section 

Marta López Mozos, Antón Velo, Marcos Fontela, Mercedes de la Paz, Lidia Carracedo, Noelia Fajar, Maria Isabel García-Ibáñez, Xose Antonio Padín, Damien Desbruyères, Herlé Mercier, Pascale Lherminier, and Fiz F Pérez

About 30% of the carbon dioxide derived from human activities (CANTH) has been absorbed by the ocean (DeVries, 2014; Gruber et al., 2019; Friedlingstein et al., 2021), with the North Atlantic (NA) being one of the largest CANTH sinks per unit area (Khatiwala et al., 2013; Sabine et al., 2004). In the NA, oceanic CANTH uptake strongly relies on the meridional overturning circulation and the associated regional winter deep convection. In fact, the formation and deep spreading of Labrador Sea Water stands as a critical CANTH gateway to intermediate and abyssal depths. The NA CANTH uptake has fluctuated over the years according to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Biennial observation of the marine carbonate system along the Go-Ship A25-OVIDE section has allowed us assessing the decadal and interannual variability of the CANTH storage in the subpolar NA from 2002 to 2021. In this study, we investigate 1) the trend of CANTH and 2) the relationship between the CANTH saturation, the apparent oxygen utilization, and the ventilation of the water masses between the A25-OVIDE section and the Greenland-Iceland-Scotland sills during 2002-2021. We divided the A25-OVIDE section into three main basins (Irminger, Iceland, and Eastern NA). Our results show that the Irminger Basin presents a more homogenous CANTH profile and higher CANTH saturation values at depth than the other two basins, which is related to the pronounced convective activity in the Irminger Basin. In contrast, the Eastern NA Basin has higher CANTH values at the surface due to its higher surface temperature, but its deep water masses show the lowest CANTH values since they are the less ventilated in the section. Our analysis also reveals that, overall, the NA CANTH storage has increased during 2002-2021, but varied according to the ventilation changes. While the Eastern NA water masses experienced a relatively constant, although shallower, average ventilation, the Irminger and Iceland Basins underwent a less steady CANTH uptake pattern characterized by alternating periods of strong and weak CANTH storage.

How to cite: López Mozos, M., Velo, A., Fontela, M., de la Paz, M., Carracedo, L., Fajar, N., García-Ibáñez, M. I., Padín, X. A., Desbruyères, D., Mercier, H., Lherminier, P., and Pérez, F. F.: North Atlantic CO2 sink variability revealed by the Go-Ship A25-OVIDE section, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11978, 2022.

EGU22-13044 | Presentations | OS1.7

Seasonal cycle of the overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic 

Yao Fu and M. Susan Lozier and the OSNAP Team

Understanding the mechanisms driving variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on different timescales is essential for better predictions of our evolving climate. The newly updated time series (August 2014 to June 2020) from OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) continues to reveal strong intra-annual and interannual variability. However, this six-year record allows us, for the first time, to examine the observation-based seasonal variability of the subpolar overturning circulation. We find that the overturning peaks in late spring from April through June and reaches the minimum in winter for both OSNAP West (a section from the coast of Labrador to West Greenland) and OSNAP East (a section from East Greenland to the Scottish shelf). An analysis of seasonality in the Labrador Sea (OSNAP West) suggests that the delay between wintertime transformation and the observed overturning peak in late spring is consistent with the advection and export of dense Labrador Sea Water along the western boundary. Further analysis is required to understand the mechanism driving seasonal overturning across OSNAP East.

How to cite: Fu, Y. and Lozier, M. S. and the OSNAP Team: Seasonal cycle of the overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13044, 2022.

EGU22-13094 | Presentations | OS1.7

The future intensification of the North Atlantic winter storm track: the key role of dynamic ocean coupling 

Rei Chemke, Laura Zanna, Clara Orbe, Lori Zentman, and Lorenzo Polvani

Climate models project an intensification of the wintertime North Atlantic storm track, over its downstream region, by the end of this century. Previous studies have suggested that ocean-atmosphere coupling plays a key role in this intensification, but the precise role of the different components of the coupling has not been explored and quantified. Here, using a hierarchy of ocean coupling experiments, we isolate and quantify the respective roles of thermodynamic (changes in surface heat fluxes) and dynamic (changes in ocean heat flux convergence) ocean coupling in the projected intensification of North Atlantic storm track. We show that dynamic coupling accounts for nearly all of the future strengthening of the storm track as it overcomes the much smaller effect of surface heat flux changes to weaken the storm track. We further show that by reducing the Arctic amplification in the North Atlantic, ocean heat flux convergence increases the meridional temperature gradient aloft, causing a larger eddy growth rate, and resulting in the strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. Our results stress the importance of better monitoring and investigating the changes in ocean heat transport, for improving climate change adaptation strategies.

How to cite: Chemke, R., Zanna, L., Orbe, C., Zentman, L., and Polvani, L.: The future intensification of the North Atlantic winter storm track: the key role of dynamic ocean coupling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13094, 2022.

EGU22-13223 | Presentations | OS1.7

Overflow Water Pathways in the North Atlantic: New Observations from the OSNAP Program 

Susan Lozier, Amy Bower, Heather Furey, Kimberley Drouin, Xiaobiao Xu, and Sijia Zou

As part of the international Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), 135 acoustically-tracked deep floats were deployed from 2014 to 2016 to track the spreading pathways of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) and Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW). These water masses, which originate in the Nordic Seas, compose the deepest branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The OSNAP floats provide the first directly observed, comprehensive Lagrangian view of ISOW and DSOW spreading pathways throughout the subpolar North Atlantic. Contrary to a decades-long expectation for how these deep water masses move equatorward, the collection of OSNAP float trajectories, complemented by model simulations, conclusively reveals that their pathways are (a) not restricted to western boundary currents, and (b) remarkably different from each other in character. The spread of DSOW from the Irminger Sea is primarily via the swift deep boundary currents of the Irminger and Labrador Seas, whereas the spread of ISOW out of the Iceland Basin is slower, more diffusive, and along multiple export pathways. The characterization of these overflow water pathways has important implications for our understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its variability. Finally, reconstructions of AMOC variability from proxy data, involving either the strength of boundary currents and/or the property variability of deep waters, should account for the myriad pathways of DSOW and ISOW, but particularly so for the latter.

 

How to cite: Lozier, S., Bower, A., Furey, H., Drouin, K., Xu, X., and Zou, S.: Overflow Water Pathways in the North Atlantic: New Observations from the OSNAP Program, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13223, 2022.

EGU22-13394 | Presentations | OS1.7

Evolution of Cold Subpolar North Atlantic Conditions in the Past Decade 

Simon Josey and Bablu Sinha

The eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre has become a focus of research in recent years, partly in response to the extreme cold anomaly (the 2015CA) that developed in winter 2013-14, peaked in 2015 and persisted in a weakened state for several years. The anomaly was evident both in sea surface temperature which exceeded 1.0 oC of cooling averaged over 2015 as a whole and in reduced temperatures at depth to of order 500 m. Here, we place it in a longer-term context by considering other anomalies in the observational record since 1980 and discuss its subsequent evolution through to 2022. We also explore the role played by large scale atmospheric modes of variability, particularly the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in generating such anomalies. Furthermore, we draw a connection between the combined influence of these modes on both the eastern subpolar gyre and intense heat loss in the Irminger Sea which potentially leads to a coupling of mode and dense water formation processes in these two key North Atlantic regions.

How to cite: Josey, S. and Sinha, B.: Evolution of Cold Subpolar North Atlantic Conditions in the Past Decade, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13394, 2022.

EGU22-342 | Presentations | OS1.11

Upper-ocean processes in sea-ice formation season in front of Dotson Ice Shelf 

Yixi Zheng, Benjamin Webber, Karen Heywood, and David Stevens

The upper-ocean processes near ice shelves play crucial roles in the local freshwater budget, carbon take-up, surface albedo, and ice-shelf melting via controlling the air-sea heat exchange and thermocline depth. The upper-ocean processes are particularly complex during the austral autumn when both the air temperature and solar radiation flux drop dramatically, which result in an intense sea-ice formation and further influence the air-sea-ice interactions. However, in regions near the ice shelves like the Dotson Ice Shelf, where sea ice covers the ocean ten months a year, the lack of high-resolution and long-period observations limit our understanding of the upper-ocean processes in this sea-ice formation season. Here we present a dataset of high-frequency (1 Hz) temperature and salinity measurements collected by a recovered seal’s tag. This tag recorded the ocean properties during late summer to autumn (mid-February to mid-April 2014) in a small region (within a 15-km radius circle) in front of the Dotson Ice Shelf, when sea ice formed and mixed-layer depth deepened. During those two months, mixed-layer depth increased from about 25 m to 125 m. The mixed-layer water temperature was always near the freezing point, while the salinity increased from 33.35 to 34.25 g per kg, equivalent to a sea ice formation of about 3.26 cm per day. We compare the changes of the upper-ocean properties with ERA-5 reanalysis atmospheric data and find that the upper-ocean heat content can be largely explained by the air-temperature changes. We run a 1-D upper-ocean model with and without sea-ice formation to explore the effect of sea-ice formation on the processes on the salinification and deepening of the mixed layer during autumn.

How to cite: Zheng, Y., Webber, B., Heywood, K., and Stevens, D.: Upper-ocean processes in sea-ice formation season in front of Dotson Ice Shelf, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-342, 2022.

EGU22-346 | Presentations | OS1.11

Observed mixing at the flanks of Maud Rise in the Weddell Sea 

Martin Mohrmann, Sebastiaan Swart, and Céline Heuzé

Maud Rise is a seamount in the eastern Weddell Sea and the location of the Maud Rise halo of reduced sea ice and polynyas. In this region, we present novel in situ data from two profiling floats with up to daily-resolved hydrographic profiles. Over Maud Rise, the mixed layer is especially deep during winter (150-200 m), leaving a thick layer of winter water after re-stratification that persists throughout the year and increases the rate of autumn mixed layer deepening. In contrast, the halo around Maud Rise is characterized by a shallow mixed layer depth and only a thin layer of winter water. Below the mixed layer, the water properties in the Maud Rise region are significantly correlated with bathymetric depth; thus, the Maud Rise flank defines the fronts between the Warm Deep Water of the abyssal ocean and the colder, less stratified Maud Rise Deep Water characteristic of the Taylor cap over Maud Rise. We analyse the curvature of spiciness in density space to quantify observed interleaving, which is substantially higher over and along the flanks of Maud Rise than in the surrounding deeper waters. These intrusions are indicative of enhanced lateral and vertical mixing along heavily sloping isopycnals, creating favorable conditions for thermobaric and double diffusive convection that facilitate the Maud Rise halo and may contribute to the formation of polynyas.

How to cite: Mohrmann, M., Swart, S., and Heuzé, C.: Observed mixing at the flanks of Maud Rise in the Weddell Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-346, 2022.

EGU22-572 | Presentations | OS1.11

Interannual variability in the ocean CO2 uptake along the West Antarctic Peninsula: A decade of year-round observations 

Elise Droste, Dorothee Bakker, Hugh Venables, Mario Hoppema, Giorgio Dall'Olmo, and Bastien Queste

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has warmed rapidly due to global climate change and there is large interannual variability in winter conditions, especially sea ice duration. Sea ice driven changes in the water column stability and marine biogeochemistry are impacting the CO2 uptake in this highly productive region. This work extends the Rothera Oceanographic and Biological Time Series (RaTS) to a decade of year-round observations of surface water carbonate chemistry (2010-2020). This spans considerable sea ice variability, allowing assessment of the air/ice/ocean system across a wide range of conditions, including low sea ice cover as is predicted for the region. It includes rare winter-time data that show an unbiased view of annual carbonate processes and how they might be seasonally interconnected and coupled to sea ice dynamics. Even though the coastal region at Marguerite Bay is a net sink of CO2, the time series is characterised by strong seasonal variability, indicating that this coastal region is a source of CO2 to the atmosphere during the austral winter and a strong CO2 sink in the summer. Additionally, we see differences in the net CO2 uptake between different years. Net annual CO2 uptake increased between 2014 and 2017 compared to previous years due to longer durations of heavier sea ice cover. Annual CO2 uptake decreased again between 2017 and 2020, which are years associated to lower sea ice concentration and shorter duration of sea ice cover. We focus on the interannual differences in sea ice concentration and extent and how they are linked to differences in the water column structure, biogeochemical properties, and air-sea CO2 exchange.

How to cite: Droste, E., Bakker, D., Venables, H., Hoppema, M., Dall'Olmo, G., and Queste, B.: Interannual variability in the ocean CO2 uptake along the West Antarctic Peninsula: A decade of year-round observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-572, 2022.

EGU22-817 | Presentations | OS1.11

Interannual hydrographic variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, West Antarctica 

Tiago Dotto, Karen Heywood, Rob Hall, Ted Scambos, Yixi Zheng, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Tasha Snow, Anna Wåhlin, Christian Wild, Martin Truffer, Atsuhiro Muto, and Erin Pettit

Basal melting of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves is caused by relatively warm waters accessing the ice base through turbulent processes at the ice-ocean boundary layer. Here we report hydrographic variability in Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) from January 2020 to March 2021 using novel subglacial mooring measurements and ocean modelling. The layers ~100 m beneath the ice base warmed considerably (~1˚C) in this period. The meltwater fraction doubled associated with basal melting due to the higher heat, leading to a freshening in the upper layers. The lighter layer contributed to the acceleration of the under-ice circulation, which led to higher basal melting through intensified temperature flux, creating positive feedback beneath the ice. The interannual variability of the water masses in the TEIS cavity is linked to the seasonal strengthening and weakening of the Pine Island Bay gyre. During periods that the sea-ice covers the bay, such as winter 2020 and the 2020-2021 summer season, the momentum transfer from the wind to the ocean surface is less effective and the gyre weakens. The deceleration of the gyre leads to relaxation and shoaling of the isopycnals beneath the TEIS, which brings warmer water upwards closer to the ice base. The results discussed in this work shows that the fate of the Amundsen Sea ice sheet is tightly controlled by adjacent small-scale gyres, which could prolongate warming periods beneath ice shelf cavities and lead to high basal melting rates.

How to cite: Dotto, T., Heywood, K., Hall, R., Scambos, T., Zheng, Y., Nakayama, Y., Snow, T., Wåhlin, A., Wild, C., Truffer, M., Muto, A., and Pettit, E.: Interannual hydrographic variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-817, 2022.

EGU22-1163 | Presentations | OS1.11

Internal tsunamigenesis and mixing driven by glacier calving in Antarctica 

Michael Meredith, Mark Inall, Alexander Brearley, David Munday, Tobias Ehmen, Katy Sheen, Katherine Retallick, Amber Annett, Rhiannon Jones, Filipa Carvalho, Katrien Van Landeghem, Alberto Naveira Garabato, Laura Gerrish, James Scourse, Alison Cook, and Christopher Bull

Ocean mixing around Antarctica is a key process that influences the vertical distributions of heat and nutrients, affecting glacier and ice shelf retreats, sea ice formation and marine productivity, with implications for regional ecosystems, global sea level and climate. Here we show that collapsing glacier fronts associated with calving events trigger internal tsunamis, the propagation and breaking of which can lead to significant mixing. Observations of one such event at the West Antarctic Peninsula, during which 3-20 megatonnes of ice were discharged to the ocean, reveal rapidly-elevated internal wave kinetic energy and upper-ocean shear, with strong homogenisation of the water column. Scaling arguments indicate that, at the West Antarctic Peninsula, just a few such events per summer would make this process comparable in magnitude to winds, and much more significant than tides, in driving shelf mixing. We postulate that this process is likely relevant to all regions with calving marine-terminating glaciers, including also Greenland and the Arctic. Glacier calving is expected to increase in a warming climate, likely strengthening internal tsunamigenesis and mixing in these regions in the coming decades.

How to cite: Meredith, M., Inall, M., Brearley, A., Munday, D., Ehmen, T., Sheen, K., Retallick, K., Annett, A., Jones, R., Carvalho, F., Van Landeghem, K., Naveira Garabato, A., Gerrish, L., Scourse, J., Cook, A., and Bull, C.: Internal tsunamigenesis and mixing driven by glacier calving in Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1163, 2022.

EGU22-1259 | Presentations | OS1.11

Open-Ocean Polynyas in the Cooperation Sea, Antarctica 

Qing Qin, Zhaomin Wang, Chengyan Liu, and Cheng Chen

     Extensive studies have addressed the characteristics and mechanisms of open-ocean polynyas in the Weddell and Cosmonaut Seas. Here, we show that more persistent open-ocean polynyas occur in the Cooperation Sea (CS) (60°E-90°E),  a sector of the Southern Ocean off the Prydz Bay continental shelf,  between 2002 and 2019. Polynyas are formed annually mainly within the 62°S-65°S band, as identified by sea ice concentrations less than 0.7. The polynyas usually began to emerge in April and expanded to large sizes during July-October, with sizes often larger than those of the Maud Rise polynya in 2017. The annual maximum size of polynyas ranged from 115.3 × 103 km2 in 2013 to 312.4 × 103 km2 in 2010, with an average value of 188.9 × 103 km2. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) travels closer to the continental shelf and brings the upper circumpolar deep water to much higher latitudes in the CS than in most other sectors; cyclonic ocean circulations often develop between the ACC and the Antarctic Slope Current, with many of them being associated with local topographic features and dense water cascading. These oceanic preconditions, along with cyclonic wind forcing in the Antarctic Divergence zone, generated polynyas in the CS. These findings offer a more complete circumpolar view of open-ocean polynyas in the Southern Ocean and have implications for physical, biological, and biogeochemical studies of the Southern Ocean. Future efforts should be particularly devoted to more extensively observing the ocean circulation to understand the variability of open-ocean polynyas in the CS.

How to cite: Qin, Q., Wang, Z., Liu, C., and Chen, C.: Open-Ocean Polynyas in the Cooperation Sea, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1259, 2022.

EGU22-1558 | Presentations | OS1.11

Drivers of Dense Shelf water formation in East Antarctic polynyas 

Esther Portela Rodriguez, Stephen R. Rintoul, Laura Herraiz-Borreguero, Fabien Roquet, Takeshi Tamura, Esmee van Wijk, Sophie Bestley, Clive McMahon, and Mark Hindell

Coastal polynyas are key regions of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) formation that ultimately contributes to the ventilation of the ocean abyss. However, not all polynyas form DSW. In this study, we analyse the main drivers of DSW formation in four East Antarctic polynyas: Mackenzie, Barrier, Shackelton and Vincennes Bay from west to east. Mackenzie and Barrier (in lesser extent) were the only two polynyas where DSW formation was observed while it is absent in Shackelton and Vincennes Bay in the particular years when they were best sampled. We analysed the role of Bathymetry, water-mass distribution and transformation, stratification of the water column, sea-ice production rate and associated salt advection. We found that sea ice production was highest in Mackenzie, particularly in early winter, which likely contributed to reach higher salinity than the other polynyas at the beginning of the sea ice formation season. From April to September, the total salinity change in Mackenzie polynya was lower than in the other polynyas, and the strong contribution of the brine rejection was partly offset by freshwater advection. Overall, the preconditioning in early winter in Mackenzie polynya, likely due to strong SIP in February and March was the main driver determining DSW formation in MAckenzie in contrast with the other East Antarctic polynyas.

How to cite: Portela Rodriguez, E., Rintoul, S. R., Herraiz-Borreguero, L., Roquet, F., Tamura, T., van Wijk, E., Bestley, S., McMahon, C., and Hindell, M.: Drivers of Dense Shelf water formation in East Antarctic polynyas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1558, 2022.

EGU22-2561 | Presentations | OS1.11

Circulation and water masses on the Bellingshausen Sea continental shelf 

Karen J. Heywood, Ria Oelerich, Peter Sheehan, Gillian Damerell, Andrew Thompson, Michael Schodlok, and Mar Flexas

The circulation of the Bellingshausen Sea has not attracted as much attention as that of its neighbours, the Amundsen Sea and the West Antarctic Peninsula.  Like them, it hosts a wide variety of vulnerable ice shelves, and exhibits inflows of warm deep water onto the continental shelf, and outflows of resulting ice shelf meltwater. Quantifying heat and freshwater transport, and understanding their temporal and spatial variability, is important for understanding the impact of a warming, melting Antarctica on ocean circulation.

First, we identify processes influencing interannual variability in warm deep water on the southern Bellingshausen Sea continental shelf using the GLORYS12V1 1/12° reanalysis from 1993 to 2018. EOFs of potential temperature below 300 m allow separation into warm and cold regimes. The Amundsen Sea Low is more intense and extends further to the east during warm regimes than during cold regimes. Increased Ekman transport results in a stronger frontal jet and Antarctic Coastal Current (AACC) in the cold regime. The warm and cold regimes are also linked to different temperature tendencies.  In the warm regime, a wind-induced reduction of sea ice results in increased heat loss to the atmosphere, convection, and formation of cold dense water in winter associated with a cooling of the southern Bellingshausen Sea and a net northward heat transport. In contrast, conditions of the cold regime favour a gradual warming of the southern Bellingshausen, consistent with a net southward heat transport.

Second, we use high-resolution sections collected from two ocean gliders deployed in the Bellingshausen Sea between January and March 2020 to quantify the distribution of meltwater. We observe a cyclonic circulation in Belgica Trough, whose western limb transports a meltwater flux of 0.46 mSv northwards and whose eastern limb transports a newly-identified meltwater re-circulation (0.88 mSv) southwards. Peak meltwater concentration is located into two layers (~150 m and ~200 m) associated with different density surfaces (27.4 and 27.6 kg m-3). The deeper layer is characterised by elevated turbidity. The shallower layer is less turbid, and is more prominent closer to the shelf break and in the eastern part of Belgica Trough. We hypothesise that these different meltwater layers emanate from different ice shelves that abut the Bellingshausen Sea.

To test the hypothesis of multiple source regions, we perform experiments using a regional set-up of MITgcm (approx. 3 km resolution), in which tracers released beneath ice shelves are used as a proxy for meltwater to diagnose transport pathways. Meltwater at the glider study site originates from ice shelves in the eastern Bellingshausen, particularly from George VI. Meltwater is primarily transported westward in the AACC; a small proportion detaches from the AACC via eddies and lateral mixing and, from the west, enters the cyclonic circulation within Belgica Trough, consistent with the glider-observed northward meltwater flow in the west and the southward re-circulation in the east. Very little meltwater from ice shelves immediately south of Belgica Trough enters this in-trough circulation.

How to cite: Heywood, K. J., Oelerich, R., Sheehan, P., Damerell, G., Thompson, A., Schodlok, M., and Flexas, M.: Circulation and water masses on the Bellingshausen Sea continental shelf, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2561, 2022.

The sensitivity of sea ice to the contrasting seasonal and perennial snow properties in the southeastern and northwestern Weddell Sea is not yet considered in sea ice model and satellite remote sensing applications. However, the analysis of physical snowpack properties in late summer in recent years reveal a high fraction of melt-freeze forms resulting in significant higher snow densities in the northwestern than in the eastern Weddell Sea. The resulting lower thermal conductivity of the snowpack, which is only half of what has been previously assumed in models in the eastern Weddell Sea, reduces the sea ice bottom growth by 18 cm. In the northwest, however, the potentially formed snow ice thickness of 12 cm at the snow/ice interface contributes to an additional 2 cm of thermodynamic ice growth at the bottom. This emphasizes the enormous impact of unappreciated regional differences in snowpack properties on the thermodynamic ice growth.

How to cite: Arndt, S.: Sensitivity of sea ice growth to snow properties in opposing regions of the Weddell Sea in late summer, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2870, 2022.

EGU22-3041 | Presentations | OS1.11

Sensitivity of the relationship between Antarctic ice shelves and iron supply to projected changes in the atmospheric forcing 

Mike Dinniman, Pierre St-Laurent, Kevin Arrigo, Eileen Hofmann, and Gert van Dijken

Previous studies showed that correlations of satellite-derived estimates of chlorophyll a in coastal polynyas over the Antarctic continental shelf with the basal melt rate of adjacent ice shelves are a result of upward advection or mixing of iron-rich deep waters due to circulation changes driven by ice shelf melt, rather than a direct influence of iron released from melting ice shelves.  In this study, the effects of projected changes in winds, precipitation, and atmospheric temperatures on this relationship were examined with a 5-km resolution ocean/sea ice/ice shelf model of the Southern Ocean.  The atmospheric changes are added as idealized increments to the forcing.  Inclusion of a poleward shift and strengthening of the winds, increased precipitation, and warmer atmospheric temperatures resulted in an 83% increase in the total Antarctic ice shelf basal melt, with changes being heterogeneously distributed around the continent.  The total dissolved iron supply to the surface waters over the continental shelf increased by 62%, while the surface iron supply due just to basal melt driven overturning increased by 48%.  However, even though the total increase in iron supply is greater than the increase due to changes in the ice shelf melt, the ice shelf driven supply becomes relatively even more important in some locations, such as the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas.  The modified atmospheric conditions also produced a reduction in summer sea ice extent and a shoaling of the summer mixed layers.  These simulated responses to projected changes suggest relief of light and nutrient limitation for phytoplankton blooms over the Antarctic continental shelf and perhaps an increase in annual production in years to come.

How to cite: Dinniman, M., St-Laurent, P., Arrigo, K., Hofmann, E., and van Dijken, G.: Sensitivity of the relationship between Antarctic ice shelves and iron supply to projected changes in the atmospheric forcing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3041, 2022.

EGU22-3067 | Presentations | OS1.11

Simulated warm water access to the Amundsen Sea continental shelf 

Alessandro Silvano, Paul Holland, Kaitlin Naughten, Oana Dragomir, Pierre Dutrieux, Adrian Jenkins, Yidongfang Si, Andrew Stewart, Beatriz Peña-Molino, and Alberto Naveira Garabato

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, contributing to sea level rise. Ocean forcing is considered to be the main driver of this mass loss, associated with warm intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. Here we describe these intrusions, focussing on the role of the Amundsen Undercurrent. The Amundsen Undercurrent is an eastward, bottom-intensified current located at the shelf break/upper slope that transports warm Circumpolar Deep Water. This current enters the continental shelf through deep canyons that connect the shelf break with ice shelf cavities, bringing oceanic heat to the base of the ice shelves. We use a regional ocean model to introduce the forcing mechanisms of the Amundsen Undercurrent and the drivers of its temporal variability. We conclude by discussing how this variability ultimately influences melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea.

How to cite: Silvano, A., Holland, P., Naughten, K., Dragomir, O., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., Si, Y., Stewart, A., Peña-Molino, B., and Naveira Garabato, A.: Simulated warm water access to the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3067, 2022.

EGU22-3373 | Presentations | OS1.11

Antarctic ice shelf open ocean corridors with large swell available 

Nathan Teder, Luke Bennetts, Rob Massom, and Phil Reid

Over the last three decades there have been two catastrophic disintegrations events on the Antarctic peninsula, the Larsen A ice shelf in 1995 and the Larsen B in 2002, alongside the Wilkins ice shelf which underwent multiple partial disintegrations between 1998—2009.  Previous research into these events indicated that there had been prolonged periods where the Larsen and Wilkins Ice Shelves were without a sea-ice buffer to protect them from ocean swell in the leadup to their respective disintegrations. Swell potentially acted as a trigger mechanism to each shelf to disintegrated, as they had already been destabilised by surface flooding, fracturing, thinning and other glaciological factors.

This study will focus on the algorithm we developed which calculates the time where an ice shelf is without a local sea ice buffer (“exposure”), the size of the ocean which could directly propagate waves into the shelf (“corridor”) and the maximum wave height of swell which is directed towards the shelf in the corridor. An analysis of the last forty-one years showed that there was a large variation over individual ice shelves for both exposure and the available swell, due to the impact of polynyas, ice tongues and fast-ice growth which can protect the ice shelf. On a regional scale, the East Antarctic Ice Shelf and West Antarctic Ice Shelf had opposing trends, with the West Antarctic Ice Shelf recording a weak increasing trend of exposure and available swell.

How to cite: Teder, N., Bennetts, L., Massom, R., and Reid, P.: Antarctic ice shelf open ocean corridors with large swell available, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3373, 2022.

EGU22-3444 | Presentations | OS1.11

Drivers and reversibility of abrupt ocean cold-to-warm and warm-to-cold transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica 

Justine Caillet, Nicolas Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot

Ocean warming around Antarctica has the potential to trigger marine ice-sheet instabilities. It has been suggested that abrupt and irreversible cold-to-warm ocean tipping points may exist, with possible domino effect from ocean to ice-sheet tipping points (Hellmer et al. 2017). Here we investigate the existence of drivers of ocean tipping points in the Amundsen Sea. This sector is currently relatively warm, but a cold-to-warm tipping point may have occurred in the past. The conditions for an hypothetic abrupt return to a cold state are also investigated. A 1/4° ocean model configuration of the Amundsen Sea, representing interactions with sea-ice and ice-shelves, is used to characterize warm-to-cold and cold-to-warm oceanic transitions induced by perturbations of the atmospheric forcing and their influence on ice-shelf basal melt. We apply idealized perturbations of heat, momentum and freshwater fluxes to identify the key physical processes at play. We find that the Amundsen Sea switches permanently to a cold state for an air cooling of 2.5°C and intermittently for either an air cooling of 0.5°C, precipitations decreased by 30% or a 2° northward shift of the winds. All simulated transitions are reversible, i.e. restoring the forcing to its state before the tipping point is sufficient to restore the ocean to its original state although the recovery time is correlated to the amplitude of the perturbations. Perturbations of the heat and freshwater fluxes modify the properties of the ocean by impacting the buoyancy flux, either through their impact on the sea-ice or, directly, to a lesser extent. Perturbations of the momentum flux involve more complex mechanisms as it combines both an Ekman effect and an indirect effect on the buoyancy flux related to changes in sea-ice advection.

How to cite: Caillet, J., Jourdain, N., and Mathiot, P.: Drivers and reversibility of abrupt ocean cold-to-warm and warm-to-cold transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3444, 2022.

EGU22-4235 | Presentations | OS1.11

Model Based Polynya: Deep water formation in the Southern Ocean 

Benjamin Barton, George Nurser, and Yevgeny Aksenov

Dense water is formed when sea ice around Antarctica drifts apart leaving open-water areas called polynyas. Both the processes of cooling sea water in contact with the atmosphere and salt accumulation in sea water during sea ice formation, lead to the sea water getting denser. The dense water formation in the oceans surrounding the Antarctic continent contributes to meridional overturning circulation, making it crucial to understand the changes in the Antarctic sea ice and oceans to improve model predictions. Using NEMO output from both a regional configuration and a coupled global configuration we ask how well are polynyas and deep water formation represented in the models? How do regional trends in sea ice affect the polynyas and deep water formation? In the model we find several types of polynya; including the open-water Great Weddell Sea Polynya and coastal polynyas. We have developed and applied an algorithm for classifying coastal polynyas based on sea ice concentration to identify and separate these from the open water polynya areas, in addition, we include sea ice thickness in the classification of coastal polynyas to select areas where the mixed-layer is deep, and surface salt flux is present. In the coastal polynyas the mixed-layer is deep and densification of the upper ocean is strong due to the surface salt flux. The Great Weddell Sea Polynya is also found to deepen the mixed-layer but the strong salt flux, found along the coast, is not present in the open-water polynya suggesting an alternative mechanism is taking place. The favourable ice divergence in the Weddell Sea builds over several years in both models but the Great Polynya itself does not reoccur after the 1980s. Coastal polynyas make up the largest area of the polynyas but show a negative trend in total area, possibly suggesting a diminishing role of these polynyas in future dense water formation. The study asserts different contributions of the two types of polynyas to deep water production.

How to cite: Barton, B., Nurser, G., and Aksenov, Y.: Model Based Polynya: Deep water formation in the Southern Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4235, 2022.

EGU22-4275 | Presentations | OS1.11

Characterizing the Basal Melting Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Ross Ice Shelf using a Regional Ocean Model 

Enrico Pochini, Florence Colleoni, Andrea Bergamasco, Manuel Bensi, Giorgio Budillon, Pasquale Castagno, Michael Dinniman, Pierpaolo Falco, Riccardo Farneti, Emanuele Forte, Vedrana Kovačević, and Stefanie Mack

The Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) is one of the biggest Antarctic ice shelves and buttresses ice streams draining both the West and East Antarctic ice sheets. Recent  observations indicate that the melting of Antarctic ice-shelves is accelerating with great spatial heterogeneity. However, estimates of basal melting, which rely on indirect methods, are affected by large uncertainties: as for the RIS, the literature includes basal melt rates from 48 to 123 Gt/yr. To improve basal melting predictions we must understand what causes its spatio-temporal variability. Here, we use a regional configuration of the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) to analyze the interactions between various water masses and the ice shelf, and their connection to local and global climate. The model simulates the ocean circulation in the Ross Sea and inside the RIS cavity from 1993 to 2018. In the actual configuration it does not account for tidal forcing. Basal melting of the RIS is parameterized by the three-equation formulation. The simulated RIS basal averaged melt rate is 78.6 ± 13.3 Gt/yr averaged over 1993-2018.

To better understand which local water mass causes basal melting, we developed a new methodology based on mixing ratios of endpoint-water masses. The endpoints are defined by: the High and Low Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW/LSSW), characterized by high and low salinity respectively and a near-freezing temperature; warm and salty modified Shelf Waters (mSW); warm and fresh Antarctic Surface Water (AASW); and cold and fresh Ice Shelf Water (ISW).

Our analyses show that in the long-term, HSSW causes ~45% of the total basal melting and is found mostly in the Western half of the RIS cavity. It shows a long-term trend due to the increase in the volume of cavity occupied by HSSW at the expense of LSSW. LSSW yields ~20% of the total basal melting and is mostly found in the Eastern half of the RIS cavity. As expected, melting due to mSW (~15% of the basal melting) and AASW (~7% of the basal melting) shows a strong seasonal cycle. Simulated mSW mostly reaches the Central-Eastern RIS during summer. Similarly, AASW intrudes below the RIS near Ross Island exclusively in summer. Melting attributed to ISW is only ~2%. About 11% of the simulated basal melting cannot be clearly attributed to any of the main water masses due to local mixing.

Finally, RIS basal melting and Ross Sea water masses variability inside the cavity are likely driven by a combination of local forcing (katabatic wind), large-scale wind/pressure systems (Amundsen Sea Low, Southern Annular Mode) and teleconnections (El-Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation), mediated by ocean-sea ice interactions, in particular by sea ice production in Western Ross Sea polynyas, and sea ice import in the Eastern Ross Sea. Identifying such climatic connections can inform which melting mode will be more important in the future climate and which region of the RIS will be more affected.

How to cite: Pochini, E., Colleoni, F., Bergamasco, A., Bensi, M., Budillon, G., Castagno, P., Dinniman, M., Falco, P., Farneti, R., Forte, E., Kovačević, V., and Mack, S.: Characterizing the Basal Melting Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Ross Ice Shelf using a Regional Ocean Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4275, 2022.

EGU22-5388 | Presentations | OS1.11

How does the Southern Annular Mode impact ice-shelf basal melt around Antarctica? 

Deborah Verfaillie, Charles Pelletier, Hugues Goosse, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christopher Y.S. Bull, Quentin Dalaiden, Vincent Favier, Thierry Fichefet, and Jonathan Wille

The climate of the polar regions is characterized by large fluctuations and has experienced dramatic changes over the past decades. In particular, the patterns of changes in sea ice and ice sheet mass are complex in the Southern Hemisphere. The Antarctic Ice Sheet has also lost mass in the past decades, especially in Western Antarctica, with a spectacular thinning and weakening of ice shelves, i.e., the floating extensions of the grounded ice sheet. Despite recent advances in observing and modelling the Antarctic climate, the mechanisms behind this long-term mass loss remain poorly understood because of the limited amount of observations and the large biases of climate models in polar regions, in concert with the large internal variability prevailing in the Antarctic. Among all the processes involved in the mass variability, changes in the general atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere may have played a substantial role. One of the most important atmospheric modes of climate variability in the Southern Ocean is the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which represents the position and the strength of the westerly winds. During years with a positive SAM index, lower sea level pressure at high latitudes and higher sea level pressure at low latitudes occur, resulting in a stronger pressure gradient and intensified Westerlies. However, the current knowledge of the impact of these fluctuations of the Westerlies on the Antarctic cryosphere is still limited. Over the past few years, some efforts investigated the impact of the SAM on the Antarctic sea ice and the surface mass balance of the ice sheet from an atmosphere-only perspective. Recently, a few oceanic studies have focused on the local impact of SAM-related fluctuations on the ice-shelf basal melt in specific regions of Antarctica, particularly Western Antarctica. However, to our knowledge, there is no such study at the scale of the whole Antarctic continent. In this study, we performed idealized experiments with a pan-Antarctic regional ice-shelf cavity-resolving ocean - sea-ice model for different phases of the SAM. We show that positive (negative) phases lead to increased (decreased) upwelling and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity close to ice shelves. A one-standard-deviation increase of the SAM leads to a net basal mass loss of 40 Gt yr-1, with strong regional contrasts: increased melt in the Western Pacific and Amundsen-Bellingshausen sectors and the opposite response in the Ross sector. Taking these as a baseline sensitivity, we estimate last millennium and end-of-21st-century ice-shelf basal melt changes due to SAM of -60.7 Gt yr-1 and 1.8 to 26.8 Gt yr-1 (depending on the emission scenario considered), respectively, compared to the present.

How to cite: Verfaillie, D., Pelletier, C., Goosse, H., Jourdain, N. C., Bull, C. Y. S., Dalaiden, Q., Favier, V., Fichefet, T., and Wille, J.: How does the Southern Annular Mode impact ice-shelf basal melt around Antarctica?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5388, 2022.

EGU22-6053 | Presentations | OS1.11 | Highlight

Tipping of the Filchner-Ronne and other Antarctic ice shelf cavities 

Verena Haid, Ralph Timmermann, and Hartmut Hellmer

Tipping of an ice shelf cavity from a cold to a warm state happens when a sustained inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) or a modified variant of it replaces High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) and Ice Shelf Water (ISW) in a cold-water cavity. HSSW and ISW with temperatures close to or even below the surface freezing point provide little heat for melting glacial ice. CDW derivatives, however, can cause a substantial multiplication of the ice shelf basal melt rates. The increased melt water release may trigger a positive feedback loop that stabilizes the warm state. Therefore, if the outside circumstances  turned back to previous conditions, a reversal from warm to cold would not occur under the same conditions as the switch from cold to warm.

A warm tipping has been found possible for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) cavity in previous studies. In the framework of the EU project TiPACCs, we now reinforce our focus on the conditions which can cause a tipping for the Filchner Ronne and other Antarctic ice shelf cavities. We conducted a series of FESOM-1.4 simulations with different manipulations of the atmospheric forcing variables in order to analyse the common factors of tipping events, opposed to more stable results.

We found that for the Filchner Trough region in a warming world, the crucial balance is between the different rates of warming and freshening of (a) the continental shelf waters in front of the ice shelf and (b) the waters transported with the slope current. While other studies identified an uplift of the pycnocline at the continental shelf break as a necessary condition for warm onshore flow, we deem a tipping more likely to hinge on the density loss of the shelf waters. When density on the continental shelf decreases more rapidly than in the slope current at sill depth, the ice shelf cavity is prone to tip. Reversibility of the tipping is possible within three decades under ERA Interim atmospheric forcing (1979-2017), but our study also confirms that hysteresis effects can cause a bistability of warm and cold state in the FRIS cavity under the 20th century HadCM3 forcing.

How to cite: Haid, V., Timmermann, R., and Hellmer, H.: Tipping of the Filchner-Ronne and other Antarctic ice shelf cavities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6053, 2022.

EGU22-6237 | Presentations | OS1.11

Influence of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability on winds over the Amundsen Sea shelf 

Paul Holland, Thomas Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin Naughten, David Schneider, Gemma O'Connor, Eric Steig, and Adrian Jenkins

Ocean-driven ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is a significant contributor to sea-level rise. In the 20th century, modelled wind trends over the Amundsen Sea imply an ocean warming that could explain this ice loss. In this presentation, climate model simulations are used to separate internal and anthropogenic influences on these wind trends. Tropical Pacific variability is found to be most influential in winter and over the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, while greenhouse gases and ozone depletion are dominant in summer and north of the shelf. Model projections feature strong wind trends that imply future ocean warming. In these projections, moderate greenhouse-gas mitigation has no influence on wind trends near the Amundsen Sea shelf. Internal climate variability creates a large and irreducible uncertainty in winds over the shelf. This complex regional and seasonal interplay between anthropogenic forcing and internal variability may determine the attribution and projection of ice loss from the WAIS.

How to cite: Holland, P., Bracegirdle, T., Dutrieux, P., Naughten, K., Schneider, D., O'Connor, G., Steig, E., and Jenkins, A.: Influence of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability on winds over the Amundsen Sea shelf, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6237, 2022.

EGU22-7243 | Presentations | OS1.11

Last Glacial Maximum ice shelf retreat and sea-ice dynamics in the Joides Basin, Ross Sea, Antarctica 

Chiara Pambianco, Lucilla Capotondi, Federico Giglio, Alessio Di Roberto, Simon Belt, Gesine Mollenhauer, Alessio Nogarotto, and Tommaso Tesi

Here we present preliminary results from the Joides Basin, one of the depressions placed on the continental shelf adjacent to the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) edge during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We studied a south west – north east transect composed of four gravity cores and one piston core collected along the axis of the Joides Basin in order to reconstruct the past-LGM glacial sedimentary facies and provide new stratigraphic information. A suite of organic biomarkers were used to reconstruct sea-ice conditions and retreat of the RIS during the last termination.

The last glacial termination has been broadly targeted as a potential analogue to current/future global warming, and many studies on this timeframe have been conducted in the RIS, which, with its buttressing effect on continental ice, and its connection to the surrounding marine environment, represents a key element in bridging atmosphere and ocean. The RIS balance and behavior, during rapid climate change, however, is still poorly understood. Many questions are still open regarding the RIS retreat and warming effects on both the atmosphere and ocean, and concerns remain about the reliability of the chronology of marine sediments recovered from this region.

Based on radiocarbon dates of bulk organic carbon and foraminifera, our proposed age model provides new results on the paleo-environmental changes in the Joides Basin as the system moved from an ice-sheet dominated environment to a distal ice-sheet-system. Our preliminary results provide new information to better improve our understanding of the RIS modalities of retreat and the related effects to the surrounding marine and glacio-marine environment during the last deglaciation and Holocene.

How to cite: Pambianco, C., Capotondi, L., Giglio, F., Di Roberto, A., Belt, S., Mollenhauer, G., Nogarotto, A., and Tesi, T.: Last Glacial Maximum ice shelf retreat and sea-ice dynamics in the Joides Basin, Ross Sea, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7243, 2022.

EGU22-7257 | Presentations | OS1.11

Drivers of Antarctic sea-ice advance date 

Kenza Himmich, Martin Vancoppenolle, Gurvan Madec, Jean-Baptiste Sallee, Casimir De Lavergne, Marion Lebrun, and Paul Holland

Sea-ice advance is a key moment to the Antarctic climate and ecosystem. Over the last 4 decades, sea-ice advance has been occurring earlier in the Weddell and Ross Seas and later west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the Amundsen Sea. However, not much is known on the drivers of the observed changes nor on the physical processes determining the date of advance in the Southern Ocean. To progress understanding, we investigate the respective roles of ocean-sea ice processes in controlling the timing of sea-ice advance using observational and reanalysis data. Based on the satellite-based sea-ice concentration budget at the time of advance, we identify two regions with distinct processes. In the outermost ice-covered region, a few degrees of latitude within the winter ice-edge, no ice growth is observed and the ice advance date can only occur by transport of ice from higher latitudes. This is consistent with above freezing reanalysis sea surface temperature (SST) at the time of sea-ice advance. Elsewhere in the seasonal ice zone, ice import is a minor contributor to the sea-ice concentration budget hence sea-ice advance must be due to freezing only. In situ hydrographic observations show that the date of advance is more strongly linked to the seasonal maximum of the mixed layer heat content (MLH) than to the seasonal maximum SST — which reflects that the need for the full mixed layer to approach freezing before sea ice can appear. The relationship is stronger in regions with no contribution of sea-ice transport. Based on these considerations, we suggest that upper ocean hydrographic properties and sea ice drift are key features to determine the timing of sea-ice advance.

How to cite: Himmich, K., Vancoppenolle, M., Madec, G., Sallee, J.-B., De Lavergne, C., Lebrun, M., and Holland, P.: Drivers of Antarctic sea-ice advance date, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7257, 2022.

EGU22-7897 | Presentations | OS1.11

A multidecadal decline of Weddell Sea Bottom Water volume forced by wind-driven sea ice changes 

Shenjie Zhou, Andrew Meijers, Michael Meredith, Povl Abrahamsen, Alessandro Silvano, Paul Holland, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, and Svein Østerhus

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is one of the most important deep water masses contributing to the lower limb of the global overturning circulation, which modulates the deep ocean ventilation and oceanic heat/carbon exchanges on multidecadal to millennial timescales. Weddell Sea Bottom Water (WSBW) is a key precursor of the AABW exported from the Weddell Sea. Its formation involves intense air-sea-ice interaction on the continental shelf that releases brine from sea ice formation, and occurs mostly in the austral winter. Here we report a distinct long-term volume decline of WSBW revealed by data collected along repeat occupations of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) hydrographic sections. We estimate a >20% reduction of WSBW volume since the early 1990s and a resultant widespread deep Weddell Sea warming associated with a basin-scale deepening of isopycnal surfaces. With the most significant volume reduction concentrating within the densest classes of WSBW and a concurrent decline of sea ice formation rate (>30%) over the southwestern Weddell continental shelf inferred from remote-sensed sea ice concentration data, we propose that the observed WSBW volume reduction is likely to be driven by a multidecadal weakening of dense shelf water production due to the sea ice changes. Reanalysis atmospheric data and ice drift data suggest that the reduction of sea ice formation rate is predominantly linked to changes in wind-driven sea ice convergence in front of Ronne Ice Shelf and Berkner Bank, as a response to a vigorous Amundsen Sea Low deepening that is teleconnected to tropical Pacific SST variability, and associated with the local radiative forcing from long-term ozone depletion.

How to cite: Zhou, S., Meijers, A., Meredith, M., Abrahamsen, P., Silvano, A., Holland, P., Sallée, J.-B., and Østerhus, S.: A multidecadal decline of Weddell Sea Bottom Water volume forced by wind-driven sea ice changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7897, 2022.

EGU22-8256 | Presentations | OS1.11

Oceanic drivers of air-sea-ice interactions: the imprint of mesoscale eddies and ocean heat content on the sea ice, atmosphere, and ice sheet 

Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, Thierry Fichefet, Sylvain Marchi, Nicole Van Lipzig, Xavier Fettweis, Deborah Verfaillie, François Klein, and Nicolas Jourdain

The Antarctic Climate is characterized by strong interactions between the Southern Ocean, its sea ice cover, and the overlying atmosphere taking place over a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. This coupling constrains our ability to isolate the role of specific components of the climate system on the dynamics of the Antarctic Climate, especially with stand-alone approaches neglecting the feedbacks at play. Based on coupled model simulations, we explore how the ocean can drive the interactions with the cryosphere and atmosphere at two distinct spatio-temporal scales. First, the role of ocean mesoscale eddies is investigated. We describe the imprint of mesoscale eddies on the sea ice and atmosphere in a high-resolution simulation of the Adélie Land sector (East Antarctica) performed with a regional coupled ocean--sea ice--atmosphere model (NEMO-MAR). Specific attention is given to the role of the sea ice in the modulation of the air-sea interactions at mesoscale and to the influence of eddy-driven fluxes on the ocean and sea ice. We show that mesoscale eddies affect near-surface winds and air temperature both in ice-free and ice-covered conditions due to their imprint on the sea ice cover. In addition, eddies promote northward sea ice transport and decrease momentum transfer by surface stress to the ocean. In a second section, we move to larger spatial and temporal scales and delve into the influence of the ocean on the seasonal to interannual variability of the sea ice, atmosphere, and ice shelves basal melt at the scale of the Southern Ocean. This work is based on early results from a new coupled ocean–sea ice--atmosphere--ice sheet configuration with explicit under-ice shelf cavities called PARASO. We focus on subsurface heat content variability and its influence on the interactions between the ocean, the sea ice, the atmosphere, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

How to cite: Huot, P.-V., Kittel, C., Fichefet, T., Marchi, S., Van Lipzig, N., Fettweis, X., Verfaillie, D., Klein, F., and Jourdain, N.: Oceanic drivers of air-sea-ice interactions: the imprint of mesoscale eddies and ocean heat content on the sea ice, atmosphere, and ice sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8256, 2022.

EGU22-8960 | Presentations | OS1.11

Antarctic ice tongue collapse triggered by loss of stabilizing land-fast sea ice 

Rodrigo Gomez Fell, Wolfgang Rack, Heather Purdie, and Oliver Marsh

The complete length of Parker Ice Tongue (18 km or 41 km2) calved in March 2020. This event occurred at the same time as repeated full summer break-outs of surrounding land-fast sea ice. Our results showed that periods of continuous ice tongue growth coincided with extended periods of land-fast sea ice coverage for at least the past 60 years. We also found that seasonal variations in the ice tongue dynamics were linked to variations in the local land-fast sea ice extent. A complete Antarctic ice tongue calving right at the grounding line has not been reported before.

Based on the analysis of satellite images and aerial photographs we determined Parker Ice Tongue length variations for the last 65 years. We found that the average growth of Parker Ice Tongue has been ~193 m/y-1. If we assume a constant growth rate, a break-off event of the magnitude observed has not occurred in the last 169 years.

We used a Sentinel-1 SAR image sequence to create a 2017-2020 time series of surface ice velocities. We found a significant inverse correlation between fast ice extent and ice tongue velocities (R= -0.62; R2=0.39). The short summer period, characterized by decreased land-fast sea ice extent, showed around 11% higher velocities compared to winter. This supports the idea that fast-ice extent can influence ice tongue dynamics seasonally.

Here we showcase the vulnerability of Parker Ice Tongue once left exposed to oceanic processes, which poses questions about the fate of other ice tongues if land-fast sea ice decreases more broadly in the future.

How to cite: Gomez Fell, R., Rack, W., Purdie, H., and Marsh, O.: Antarctic ice tongue collapse triggered by loss of stabilizing land-fast sea ice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8960, 2022.

EGU22-9080 | Presentations | OS1.11

Hydrography, circulation and warm inflow toward the central Getz Ice Shelf: two years of mooring observations 

Vår Dundas, Elin Darelius, Kjersti Daae, Nadine Steiger, Yoshihiro Nakayama, and Tae-Wan Kim

As the melt rates of Getz Ice Shelf (GIS) increase, its grounding line is retreating, possibly destabilizing GIS. Detailed oceanographic observations from all the GIS frontal regions are needed to describe its drivers of basal melt and obtain an accurate projection of its melt rates. We present the first mooring observations from the bathymetrically sheltered trough between Siple and Carney Islands - one of the remaining GIS fronts to be described in detail. Although the ocean is colder in this central trough compared to what is observed in adjacent troughs, temperatures more than 1° above freezing are present throughout the mooring period, with a positive mean heat transport directed towards the ice shelf. Output from a high-resolution regional model indicates that heat is advected to the trough from both the eastern Amundsen Sea and from the continental shelf break in the north. The variability in heat content and heat transport are both affected by ocean surface stress, but while westward stress drives increased heat transport towards the ice shelf, eastward stress drives enhanced heat content. These relationships are most prominent in winter. Anomalously low summertime sea ice concentration and weak winds during the mooring period appear to suppress the effect of a strong positive anomaly in cumulative Ekman pumping, causing relatively low heat content during the mooring period compared to long-term estimates from the regional model.

How to cite: Dundas, V., Darelius, E., Daae, K., Steiger, N., Nakayama, Y., and Kim, T.-W.: Hydrography, circulation and warm inflow toward the central Getz Ice Shelf: two years of mooring observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9080, 2022.

EGU22-10311 | Presentations | OS1.11

Twenty-first century projections of ice-shelf melt in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica 

Nicolas Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Justine Caillet, and Clara Burgard

Approximately 10% of the global mean sea level rise over 2005–2010 was attributed to the glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea. This was mostly driven by changes in intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water and subsequent ice shelf melt. Yet, projecting future ice shelf melt remains challenging because of large biases of CMIP models near Antarctica and because resolving the ocean circulation below the relatively small ice shelves in this sector requires a relatively high model resolution. Previously, we built atmospheric projections of the Amundsen sector at 10km resolution constrained by the rcp85 CMIP5 multi-model mean (Donat-Magnin et al. 2021). Here we use this atmospheric forcing to drive an ensemble of three 1/12° NEMO projections of the Amundsen Sea circulation and ice shelf melting. We find that melt rates are typically increased by 50% to 100% at the end of the 21st century compared to present day. Approximately half of this increase is explained by remote ocean changes transmitted through the model boundaries, while increased iceberg discharge does not have a significant effect. We describe the mechanisms at play through the terms of the ocean heat budget equations. We then use these projections to re-discuss some of the ISMIP6 projections (Seroussi et al. 2020, Edwards et al. 2021).

How to cite: Jourdain, N., Mathiot, P., Caillet, J., and Burgard, C.: Twenty-first century projections of ice-shelf melt in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10311, 2022.

EGU22-10635 | Presentations | OS1.11

Coastal and offshore controls on the variability of the Undercurrent in the Amundsen Sea 

Oana Dragomir, Alessandro Silvano, Anna Hogg, Michael Meredith, George Nurser, and Alberto Naveira Garabato

The marine-terminating glaciers of the Amundsen Sea are experiencing increased basal melting associated with an inflow of warm and salty water from the deep ocean onto the shelf via submarine glacial troughs. Modelling work suggests that variability in the transport of this source of heat across the shelf-break and onto the Dotson Trough in the western Amundsen Sea is regulated by wind-driven changes in an eastward undercurrent that flows along the continental slope.

What controls the strength and variability of the undercurrent, however, is not well documented due to a lack of observations in the region. Here, we use a 5-year mooring record of undercurrent velocity in the Dotson Trough in conjunction with a novel 16-year altimetric sea level product that includes measurements in regions of near-perennial ice cover to describe the connection between undercurrent variability and climate modes on seasonal to interannual time scales.

We find a robust signature of the undercurrent variability that is linked to both a circumpolar coastal sea level signal as well as to the sea level in an offshore region in the Amundsen Sea. We discuss the implications of this undercurrent-sea level covariability in the context of atmospheric climate modes and we further explore what this link conveys about the undercurrent variability on interannual timescales by using of our full altimetry record.

How to cite: Dragomir, O., Silvano, A., Hogg, A., Meredith, M., Nurser, G., and Naveira Garabato, A.: Coastal and offshore controls on the variability of the Undercurrent in the Amundsen Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10635, 2022.

Terra Nova Bay Polynya (TNBP) is one of the representative coastal polynya in East Antarctica. TNBP plays a major role of sea ice producers in the Antarctica, and it influences the regional current circulation and the surrounding marine environment. Therefore, it is important to investigate the influencing factors of TNBP. In this study, time series of TNBP area was estimated from Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS (2013-2016) and Sentinel-1 SAR (2017-2021) images by visually analyzing the boundary of polynya. To analyze the environmental factors influencing the area of ​​TNBP, wind speed, temperature, air pressure, and humidity measured at an automatic weather station installed near the polynya, and sea surface temperature, salinity and heat fluxes predicted by a reanalysis data were compared to the time series TNBP area. The area of TNBP showed a moderate correlation with the wind speed, but it was statistically low correlated with all other environmental factors. Meanwhile, a multiple linear regression between the time series area and all environmental factors showed a much higher correlation coefficient than between the polynya area and wind speed. However, the polynya areas predicted by the multiple linear regression model were largely deviated from those estimated from the satellite images. In future work, we intend to develop a model that retrieve more accurate TNBP area by selecting environmental factors suitable for polynya area estimation and applying them to machine learning techniques.

How to cite: Kim, J. and Han, H.: A study on the influencing factors of Terra Nova Bay Polynya using satellite imagery, AWS, and reanalysis data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11096, 2022.

EGU22-11231 | Presentations | OS1.11

Water Mass Transformation in the Antarctic shelf 

Fabio Boeira Dias, Petteri Uotila, Ben Galton-Fenzi, Ole Ritcher, Steve Rintoul, Violaine Pellichero, and Yafei Nie

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) forms around Antarctica, sinks to the ocean’s abyss and fills more than 30% of the ocean’s volume. The formation of AABW includes mixing of distinct water masses, such as High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW), Ice Shelf Water (ISW) and Circumpolar Deep Water on the continental shelf. Despite its climatic importance, the mechanisms of AABW formation are poorly known due to the lack of observations and the inability of climate models to simulate those mechanisms. We applied the Water Mass Transformation (WMT) framework in density space to simulations from a circumpolar ocean-ice shelf model (WAOM, with horizontal resolution ranging from 10 to 2 km) to understand the role of surface fluxes and oceanic processes to water mass formation and mixing on the Antarctic continental shelf, including the ice shelf cavities. The salt budget dominates the water mass transformation rates, with only secondary contribution from the heat budget. The buoyancy gain at relatively light density classes (27.2 < σΘ < 27.5 kg/m3) is dominated by basal melting. At heavier densities (σΘ > 27.5), salt input associated with sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas drives buoyancy loss. The formation of HSSW occurs via diffusion of the surface fluxes, but it is advected towards the cavities of large ice shelves (e.g., Ross, Ronne-Filchner), where it interacts with ice shelf through melting and refreezing and forms ISW. The sensibility of those mechanisms to the model horizontal resolution was evaluated. The basal melting and associated buoyancy gain rates largely decrease with increased resolution, while buoyancy loss associated with coastal polynyas are less sensible to resolution as surface fluxes are estimated from sea ice concentration observations. These results highlight the importance of high resolution to accurately simulate AABW formation, where mixing processes occurring below ice shelf cavities play an important role in WMT.

How to cite: Boeira Dias, F., Uotila, P., Galton-Fenzi, B., Ritcher, O., Rintoul, S., Pellichero, V., and Nie, Y.: Water Mass Transformation in the Antarctic shelf, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11231, 2022.

EGU22-11368 | Presentations | OS1.11

Antarctic ice-shelf basal melting in a variable resolution Earth System Model 

Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Carolyn Begeman, Darin Comeau, Matthew Hoffman, Wuyin Lin, Mark Petersen, Stephen Price, Andrew Roberts, Milena Veneziani, Luke Van Roekel, and Jonathan Wolfe

The processes that govern freshwater flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS)—ice-shelf basal melting and iceberg calving—are generally poorly represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). The processes governing ocean flows onto the Antarctic continental and into ice-shelf cavities can only be captured accurately at resolutions significantly higher than those in typical CMIP-class ESMs. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) from the US Department of Energy supports regional refinement in all components, allowing global modeling with high resolution in regions of interest. Here, we present fully coupled results from an ocean/sea-ice mesh that has high resolution (12 km) on the Antarctic continental shelf and much of the Southern Ocean and low resolution (~30 to 60 km) over the rest of the globe. E3SM includes Antarctic ice-shelf cavities with fixed geometry and calculates ice-shelf basal melt rates from the heat and freshwater fluxes computed by the ocean component. In addition, E3SM permits prescribed forcing from a climatology of iceberg melt, providing a more realistic representation of these freshwater fluxes than found in many ESMs. With these new capabilities, E3SM version 2 produces realistic and stable ice-shelf basal melt rates across the continent. We show preliminary results of modeled ice-shelf basal melt rates across a range of Antarctic ice-shelves under pre-industrial and historical climate forcing, as well as the impacts of these added capabilities on the region’s climate. We show that the use of a mesoscale eddy parameterization, tapered with the mesh resolution, reduces biases even in the 12-km region where some eddies are resolved.  The accurate representation of these processes within a coupled ESM is an important step towards reducing uncertainties in projections of the Antarctic response to climate change and Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise.

How to cite: Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Begeman, C., Comeau, D., Hoffman, M., Lin, W., Petersen, M., Price, S., Roberts, A., Veneziani, M., Van Roekel, L., and Wolfe, J.: Antarctic ice-shelf basal melting in a variable resolution Earth System Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11368, 2022.

EGU22-11440 | Presentations | OS1.11

Millennial-scale interactions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean 

Moritz Kreuzer, Willem Huiskamp, Torsten Albrecht, Stefan Petri, Ronja Reese, Georg Feulner, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Increased sub-shelf melting and ice discharge from the Antarctic Ice sheet has both regional and global impacts on the ocean and the overall climate system. Additional meltwater, for example, can reduce the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, potentially affecting the global thermohaline circulation. Similarly, increased input of fresh and cold water around the Antarctic margin can lead to a stronger stratification of coastal waters, and a potential increase in sea-ice formation, trapping warmer water masses below the surface, which in turn can lead to increased basal melting of the ice shelves.

So far these processes have mainly been analysed in simple unidirectional cause-and-effect experiments, possibly neglecting important interactions and feedbacks. To study the long-term and global effects of these interactions, we have developed a bidirectional offline coupled ice-ocean model framework. It consists of the global ocean and sea-ice model MOM5/SIS and an Antarctic instance of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model PISM, with the ice-shelf cavity module PICO representing the ice-ocean boundary layer physics. With this setup we are analysing the aforementioned interactions and feedbacks between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean system on multi-millenial time scales.

How to cite: Kreuzer, M., Huiskamp, W., Albrecht, T., Petri, S., Reese, R., Feulner, G., and Winkelmann, R.: Millennial-scale interactions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11440, 2022.

EGU22-11967 | Presentations | OS1.11

Development of persistent Southern Ocean biases in HadGEM-GC3.1-MM and implications for modelled ocean-ice interaction in West Antarctica 

Kyriaki M. Lekakou, Ben G.M. Webber, Karen J. Heywood, David P. Stevens, Patrick Hyder, and Helene Hewitt

The ice shelves of the Amundsen Sea are rapidly thinning, and this can be largely explained by basal melting driven by the ocean. However, sparse observational data and poorly known bathymetry contribute to the difficulty of quantifying the key ocean mechanisms that transport warm water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf and their variability. These processes should be represented in coupled climate models such as those used for CMIP6. Previously, we leveraged recent observational campaigns and gains in process understanding to assess how well four models, UKESM1 and the HadGEM-GC3.1 family of models, represent the ocean processes forcing warm water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf. We identified the medium resolution (1/4°) HadGEM-GC3.1-MM model’s inability to represent warm water intrusion on the continental shelf, revealing substantial biases in sea ice, SST, salinity and circulation in the Southern Ocean. It is important to understand the processes that are driving these biases, to guide the improvement of this and similar models. Here, we study model behaviour during the spin-up, control and historical runs, to identify what is causing this unrealistic behaviour. A key result is the rapid development of biases in temperature and salinity on the Amundsen’s Sea continental shelf, after only 15 years in the spin-up run, entering a state which persists throughout the following runs. By calculating the differences in sea ice concentration between years 0-5 and 10-15 of the spin up-run, we found significant changes across multiple regions of the Southern Ocean and continental shelf, with most of the East Antarctic sector and Bellingshausen Sea showing a considerable decline that exceeds 20% in some places. The differences between years 0-5 and 10-15 Notable freshening takes place in the whole West Antarctic sector and a strong westward slope current appears, which encircles Antarctica. While strong biases in sea ice and salinity develop later in the Weddell Sea, during the first 15 years the largest biases occur in Drake Passage and the west Antarctic sector. We analyse tendencies and the freshwater budget from the spin-up run to quantify the key processes that drive the development of these biases in selected regions.

How to cite: Lekakou, K. M., Webber, B. G. M., Heywood, K. J., Stevens, D. P., Hyder, P., and Hewitt, H.: Development of persistent Southern Ocean biases in HadGEM-GC3.1-MM and implications for modelled ocean-ice interaction in West Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11967, 2022.

EGU22-12887 | Presentations | OS1.11

Four year-long observations from a key inflow region onto the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf 

Nadine Steiger and Jean-Baptiste Sallée

The Filchner Trough on the continental shelf in the southern Weddell Sea is the gateway for warm water from off the continental shelf to flow towards the Filchner Ice Shelf. The warm water is steered southward along the eastern slope of the trough, potentially increasing basal melt rates of the ice shelf and leading to the formation of cold and dense Ice Shelf Water that overflows and contributes to the Antarctic Bottom Water. We present mooring time series from 2017 to 2021 in key inflow regions of modified Warm Deep Water onto the eastern continental shelf. Three moorings were placed across the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough close to the shelf break and captured the changes in the thickness of the northward-flowing Ice Shelf Water as well as the overlying southward warmer water. Another mooring was placed over the shallower eastern shelf and allowed a comparison between the two pathways of warm water onto the continental shelf. The four-year-long observations provide a better understanding of the processes that influence the seasonal and interannual variability in temperatures and circulation and possible changes in the flow of warm water towards the ice shelf.

How to cite: Steiger, N. and Sallée, J.-B.: Four year-long observations from a key inflow region onto the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12887, 2022.

EGU22-13276 | Presentations | OS1.11

Investigation Into Antarctic Slope Front Regimes Using an Idealised Isopycnal Model 

Qing Yee Ellie Ong, Matthew England, Andrew Hogg, Navid Constantinou, and Edward Doddridge
The Antarctic Slope Current is a current that flows westward around Antarctica and lies close to the coast on the continental shelf. The slope current region features steeply sloping isopycnals at the continental shelf, characterising the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF). The ASF serves as a barrier between warm Circumpolar Deep Water and the continental shelf. Depending on the local structure of the ASF, Circumpolar Deep Water can flood on to the continental shelf and induce basal melt, with implications for sea level rise globally. Observations in these regions of the ocean are scarce, or even non-existent, and eddy-resolving modelling studies of the ASF are also limited. We have developed a set of idealised configurations with an isopycnal model that can emulate the conditions in different ASF regimes. We investigate how the different ASF regimes are affected by variations in wind forcing, topography and stratification. This aims to identify the different dynamics and the sensitivity of forcings and boundary conditions that allow warm water to reach the shelf in different ASF regimes.

How to cite: Ong, Q. Y. E., England, M., Hogg, A., Constantinou, N., and Doddridge, E.: Investigation Into Antarctic Slope Front Regimes Using an Idealised Isopycnal Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13276, 2022.

EGU22-13422 | Presentations | OS1.11

Direct evidence for a 20th Century decline in Southern Ocean sea ice 

David Ferreira and Jonathan Day

Since satellite records began in the 1970s, a small expansion of sea ice area around Antarctica has been observed, in stark contrast with the large decrease seen in the Arctic region. This expansion is difficult to reconcile with the observed rise in global temperatures and appears at odds with the ice loss simulated by climate models over the same period. Efforts to elucidate the driving mechanism are hampered by a short observational record, with little information available prior to the advent of satellite observations. Here we use direct observations recovered from logbooks of early explorers and routine shipping reports (1900 to 1953) to shed new light on the position of the ice edge. The data reveals that the early 20th century sea ice extended 3.1$^\circ$ (2.6$^\circ$-3.3$^\circ$ for 5-95\% confidence interval) further north ($\sim$100\% more extensive) than the present day. This finding re-frames the 20th century as a period of overall long-term sea ice loss in the Antarctic. The extensive sea ice cover, compared to present, goes hand-in-hand with cooler sea surface temperatures and reduced zonal wind speed in the region, consistent with reduced concentrations of anthropogenic forcing agents (greenhouse gas, ozone depletion) in the early 20th century, and may reflect the unperturbed state of Antarctic sea ice.

 

How to cite: Ferreira, D. and Day, J.: Direct evidence for a 20th Century decline in Southern Ocean sea ice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13422, 2022.

EGU22-101 | Presentations | OS1.4

Subtropical contribution to Subantarctic Mode Waters 

Bieito Fernández Castro, Matthew Mazloff, Richard G Williams, and Alberto Naveira Garabato

Subantarctic Mode Waters (SAMW), forming in the deep winter mixed layers in the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ) to the north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), connect the ocean thermocline with the atmosphere, contributing to ocean carbon and heat uptake and transporting high-latitude nutrients northward, to fuel primary production at low latitudes. Many aspects of SAMW formation are poorly understood due to the data scarcity during Austral winter. Here, we use biogeochemical Argo float observations to investigate the seasonal development, origin and significance of a subsurface salinity maximum in the SAMW formation regions. This conspicuous feature develops every summer in the seasonal thermocline of the SAMW formation regions as a consequence of the advection along the ACC of warmer and saltier waters from the western boundaries of the subtropical gyres, in particular the Agulhas Return current. The salinity maximum acts as a gatekeeper for SAMW ventilation, since it controls the seasonal evolution of stratification at the base of the mixed layer, modulating its rate of deepening during autumn and winter and re-stratifying the SAMW pool when winter mixing ceases. We also show that the subtropical influx, often overlooked, is key to understand the variability of SAMW properties, since it represents a leading order term in the heat and salt budgets at the formation regions. Finally, the analysis of the nitrate seasonal cycle at the SAMW formation regions as recorded by the Argo floats, revealed that the seasonal salinity increase goes along with a decrease in the concentration of this nutrient, as a consequence of the advection of subtropical waters containing low preformed nitrate. These results suggest that nutrient concentration in SAMW is controlled not only by the rate of upwelling of high-nutrient waters south of the ACC and the degree of biological drawdown during their northward transit, as frequently assumed, but also by the influx of subtropical waters, pointing to previously overlooked feedbacks in the redistribution of nutrients between high and low latitudes.

How to cite: Fernández Castro, B., Mazloff, M., Williams, R. G., and Naveira Garabato, A.: Subtropical contribution to Subantarctic Mode Waters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-101, 2022.

EGU22-926 | Presentations | OS1.4

Lagrangian Ocean Ventilation: Improved Subgrid-Scale Dispersion on Neutral Surfaces 

Daan Reijnders, Eric Deleersnijder, and Erik van Sebille

Mesoscale eddies play a major role in ocean ventilation by stirring ocean tracers, such as carbon, along sloping surfaces of neutral buoyancy. To capture the effects of these turbulent eddies, coarse resolution ocean models resort to tracer diffusion parameterizations that take into account neutral surface slopes. Likewise, when studying tracer pathways in a Lagrangian framework, the effect of eddy dispersion needs to be parameterized when coarse models are used.

Dispersion in Lagrangian simulations is traditionally parameterized by random walks, equivalent to diffusion in Eulerian models. Beyond random walks, there is a hierarchy of stochastic parameterizations, where stochastic perturbations are added to Lagrangian particle velocities, accelerations, or hyper-accelerations. These parameterizations are referred to as the 1st, 2nd and 3rd order ‘Markov models’ (Markov-N) respectively. Most previous studies investigate these parameterizations in two-dimensional setups, often restricted to the ocean surface. The few studies that investigated Lagrangian dispersion parameterizations on three-dimensional neutral surfaces have focused only on random walk (Markov-0) dispersion.

Here, we present a three-dimensional isoneutral formulation of the Markov-1 model. We also implement an anisotropic, shear-dependent formulation of Lagrangian random walk dispersion, originally formulated as a Eulerian diffusion parameterization by Le Sommer et al (2011). Random walk dispersion and Markov-1 are compared using an idealized setup as well as more realistic coarse and coarsened (50 km) ocean model output. While random walk dispersion and Markov-1 produce similar particle distributions over time, Markov-1 yields more realistic Lagrangian trajectories and leads to a smaller spurious dianeutral flux.

How to cite: Reijnders, D., Deleersnijder, E., and van Sebille, E.: Lagrangian Ocean Ventilation: Improved Subgrid-Scale Dispersion on Neutral Surfaces, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-926, 2022.

EGU22-1535 | Presentations | OS1.4

Using dye tracers to understand the development of the T–-S structureof the ocean thermocline 

A. J. George Nurser and Alice Marzocchi

Understanding what sets the T--S relation within the thermocline, and
how long and what volume of ventilated waters in each T--S class stay in the sub-surface
thermocline is a key question for climate prediction. In particular the sparsity of
the T--S distribution has been a puzzle since the days of
Stommel. Here we use runs performed for the TICTOC project, in which water is labelled by its
year of ventilation and its source region, to understand how the
volumetric T--S relation is laid down year on year, and  evaluate the
importance of near-surface (mostly vertical) mixing in the first year of ventilation
against longer term mixing (much of which is isopycnal) in specifying the T--S distribution.

How to cite: Nurser, A. J. G. and Marzocchi, A.: Using dye tracers to understand the development of the T–-S structureof the ocean thermocline, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1535, 2022.

Ocean ventilation provides the primary control of how the ocean takes up  excess carbon and heat supplied to the earth system due to carbon emissions. Ventilation involves an atmospheric source supplying a tracer to the mixed layer, which is then physically transported into the thermocline and deep ocean by the ocean circulation. For this physical transfer of tracer, there are two characteristic timescales: (i) a fast adjustment controlled by the depth of the mixed layer and (ii) a slow adjustment controlled by the rate of mass transfer to the ocean interior. However, this physical transfer is modified for heat and carbon by climate feedbacks and carbonate chemistry respectively. Here, we use a conceptual 2-dimensional ocean model that is designed to address the ocean adjustment to carbon emissions on yearly to multi-centennial timescales. The model includes  a source, an ocean mixed-layer and interior adjustments, and a feedback mechanism that includes a surface temperature feedback  (such as from clouds) and the effects of carbonate chemistry; the model ignores any seasonality, biological processes and chemical weathering. Using this conceptual model, we reveal  the similarities and differences in how ventilation controls the uptake of heat and carbon involving changes in how the fast and slow adjustments are controlled.  In summary, despite the physical transfer of fluid being determined by ocean ventilation, the effects of climate feedbacks and carbonate chemistry lead to differences in the ocean thermal and carbon adjustments to an increase in atmospheric CO2.

How to cite: Katavouta, A. and Williams, R.: Ventilation controls of ocean heat and carbon uptake: similarities and differences in the response to carbon emissions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1626, 2022.

EGU22-2005 | Presentations | OS1.4

Ventilation and oxygen export in the Labrador Sea 

Jannes Koelling, Dariia Atamanchuk, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia Handmann, and Douglas W.R. Wallace

The Labrador Sea is one of the few regions where ventilation can replenish oxygen to the deep ocean, owing to wintertime deep convection that occurs primarily in the center of the basin. While some recent studies have aided in quantifying the amount of oxygen taken up during Labrador Sea Water (LSW) formation, less is known about how different spreading pathways of LSW contribute to the export of oxygen.

In this study, we use oxygen data from the 53N mooring array in the boundary current at the exit of the Labrador Sea, together with Argo float data, in order to investigate the connection between deep convection, spreading of LSW, and oxygen export. We find that the annual cycle of the oxygen concentration is driven largely by an increased input of newly formed LSW into the boundary current in the spring and summer. The resulting oxygen increase is a result of a fast, direct southward pathway of LSW, and we estimate that the associated oxygen export accounts for about half of the uptake in the interior. The 4-year record that is presently available also indicates that the strength of the oxygen export varies interannually, which may be related to changing convection patterns.

Overall, our results highlight the important role that the Labrador Sea plays in supplying oxygen to the deep ocean, and represent a first step towards better understanding the ventilation pathways out of this critical region.

How to cite: Koelling, J., Atamanchuk, D., Karstensen, J., Handmann, P., and Wallace, D. W. R.: Ventilation and oxygen export in the Labrador Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2005, 2022.

EGU22-2848 | Presentations | OS1.4

Turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate and attendant fluxes in the western tropical Atlantic estimated from ocean glider observations 

Peter Sheehan, Gillian Damerell, Philip Leadbitter, Karen Heywood, and Rob Hall

Ocean gliders enable us to collect the ocean microstructure observations necessary to calculate the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, ε, on timescales of weeks to months: far longer than is normally possible using traditional ship-based platforms. Slocum gliders have previously been used to this end;  here, we report the first detailed estimates of ε calculated using observations collected by a Seaglider. Seaglider 620 was deployed in the western tropical Atlantic in early 2020 and was equipped with a FP07 fast thermistor. We use these same fast thermistor observations to calculate ε following the Thorpe scale method. We find very good agreement between estimates of ε calculated following the two methods. The Thorpe scale method yields the larger values of ε, but the average difference, less than an order of magnitude, is smaller than reported elsewhere. The spatio-temporal distribution of ε is comparable for both methods. Maximum values of ε (10-7 W kg-1) are observed in the surface mixed layer; relatively high values (10-9 W kg-1) are also observed between approximately 200 and 500 m depth. These two layers are separated by a 100 m thick layer of low ε (10-10 W kg-1), which is co-located with a high-salinity layer of Subtropical Underwater and a peak in the strength of stratification (i.e. in N2). We calculate the turbulent heat and salt fluxes associated with the observed turbulence that act to ventilate deeper layer of the ocean. Between 200 and 500 m, ε induces downward (i.e. negative) fluxes of both properties that, if typical of the annual average, would have a very small influence on the heat and salt content of the salinity-maximum layer above. We compare these turbulent fluxes with estimates of fluxes due to double diffusion, having objectively identified those regions of the water column where double diffusion is likely to occur. While the downward heat flux due to double diffusive mixing is lower than that due to mechanical mixing, the downward salt flux due to double diffusive mixing is six times greater.

How to cite: Sheehan, P., Damerell, G., Leadbitter, P., Heywood, K., and Hall, R.: Turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate and attendant fluxes in the western tropical Atlantic estimated from ocean glider observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2848, 2022.

EGU22-3692 | Presentations | OS1.4

Subpolar gyre decadal variability explains the recent oxygenation in the Irminger Sea 

Charlene Feucher, Esther Portela, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, and Virginie Thierry

The North Atlantic is one of the hot-spot for ocean oxygen ventilation due to cold surface water and strong winter convection. This region is subjected to large interannual to multidecadal variability, which is suspected to strongly impact the regional and temporal oxygen ventilation and inventory.
Here we investigate the oxygen variability over 1991-2018 and driving mechanisms of the two main water masses of the Irminger Sea: the Labrador Sea Water (LSW) and the Island Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW). For this, we combined the most recent Argo dataset with ship-based hydrographic data in the Irminger Sea. The dissolved oxygen concentration of the LSW oscillated between 300 mu mol/kg in the early 90's and between 2016 and 2018, and 280 mu mol/kg in the period 2002-2015. The temporal changes in oxygen concentration are less pronounced in the underlying Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW).
We show that, while solubility changes partly explain the variability of the dissolved oxygen concentration within the Labrador Sea Water (LSW), the main driver of oxygen variability is the Apparent Oxygen Utilisation (AOU). 
In the early 90's and between 2015 and 2018, the deep convection was more intense and led to less stratified, thicker, colder, and more oxygenated LSW than during the period 1995-2015. This was attributed to larger ocean heat loss, stronger wind stress, and colder subpolar gyre under positive NAO conditions.   
The observed oxygen variability in the Irminger Sea between 1991 and 2018 does not show any significant linear trend. This study provides the first observational evidence of the impact of the subpolar gyre decadal variability on the oxygen ventilation in the Irminger Sea and advocates for continuing the monitoring of oxygen concentration and content in the subpolar gyre to separate any possible warming-induced long-term changes from the large decadal natural variability.

How to cite: Feucher, C., Portela, E., Kolodziejczyk, N., and Thierry, V.: Subpolar gyre decadal variability explains the recent oxygenation in the Irminger Sea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3692, 2022.

EGU22-4183 | Presentations | OS1.4

Old and cold contributions to the oxygen minimum zones 

Xabier Davila, Geoffrey Gebbie, Elaine McDonagh, Siv Lauvset, Ailin Brakstad, and Are Olsen

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are oxygen-poor layers in the water column of great importance for marine ecosystems and biogeochemical processes. The position, size and extent of the OMZs are set by the source water properties, transport timescales, as well as respiration, both upstream of and within OMZs. Here we use an adjoint ocean circulation model built upon observations of ocean tracers to explore the complex interplay between chemical, biological and physical processes. Specifically, we determine the contributions of different water masses to the volume and oxygen deficiency of the OMZs. Among the tracers used, phosphate, oxygen and radiocarbons are included. These allow to first, constrain the ocean circulation and its timescales, and second, to determine where in the ocean oxygen utilization takes place. Here we show that the OMZs are ventilated at a wide range of timescales, ranging from a few years from adjacent regions in the tropics and subtropics, to more than 3000 years from distant deep water formation areas. Preliminary results suggest that the Antarctic marginal seas are key source water regions. While the fraction of water volume that originates in the Ross and Weddell Sea is relatively low (~20-30%), the contribution to the OMZs oxygen deficit is as large as ~40%, i.e., 40% of the apparent oxygen utilization is associated with these waters. This is a consequence of the long transit times involved, about 3000 years. Our results stress the importance of the contributions of the Ross and Weddell Seas to the climate sensitivity of the OMZs.

How to cite: Davila, X., Gebbie, G., McDonagh, E., Lauvset, S., Brakstad, A., and Olsen, A.: Old and cold contributions to the oxygen minimum zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4183, 2022.

EGU22-4856 | Presentations | OS1.4

The Impact of Zonal Jets on the Atlantic Oxygen Minimum Zones 

Paulo H. R. Calil

Oxygen is an essential component of the ocean biogeochemistry.  Relatively small variations in its content may have a significant impact on ocean productivity, biodiversity and fisheries and thus affect ocean health and ecosystem services.  Over the last decade, several studies have shown that regions with low oxygen concentrations are expanding over the world's oceans, a phenomenon which has been termed ocean deoxygenation. These changes are driven by a combination of anthropogenic climate change and the natural variability of the ocean. As climate change warms the upper ocean it reduces oxygen solubility,  increases upper ocean stratification and thus reduces oxygen mixing as well as induces changes in respiration rates. Disentangling the natural and anthropogenically-induced oxygen variability requires the use of models as prognostic or diagnostic tools, as they can be forced with different conditions which may or may not include the effects of climate change and allow a detailed examination of specific processes. In this work,  we compare two basin-scale coupled physical-biogeochemical simulations of the Tropical Atlantic ocean at different horizontal resolutions and show that more robust zonal jets at intermediate depths in the higher resolution simulation have a major impact on the overall structure of the North and South Atlantic OMZs by limiting their westward extent and supplying oxygen to the OMZ core regions between 300 m and 500 m. 

How to cite: R. Calil, P. H.: The Impact of Zonal Jets on the Atlantic Oxygen Minimum Zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4856, 2022.

EGU22-6957 | Presentations | OS1.4

Gulf Stream and Deep Western Boundary Currents are key to constrain the future North Atlantic Carbon Uptake 

Nadine Goris, Klaus Johannsen, and Jerry Tjiputra

As one of the major carbon sinks in the global ocean, the North Atlantic is a key player in mediating the ongoing global warming. However, projections of the North Atlantic carbon sink in a high-CO2 future vary greatly among models, with some showing that a slowdown in carbon uptake has already begun and others predicting that this slowdown will not occur until nearly 2100.  

For an ensemble of 11 CMIP5-models, we identify two indicators of contemporary model behavior that are highly correlated with a model´s projected future carbon-uptake in the North Atlantic. The first indicator is the high latitude winter pCO2sea-anomaly, which is tightly linked to winter mixing and nutrient supply, but also to deep convection. The second indicator is the fraction of the anthropogenic carbon-inventory stored below 1000-m depth, indicating the efficiency of dissolved inorganic carbon transport into the deep ocean.  

We further use a genetic algorithm to identify sub-regions of different shapes and sizes that optimise the correlations between our indicators and the future carbon uptake in the North Atlantic. Independent of size and shape, the genetic algorithm persistently identifies the gulf stream region as optimal for the first indicator as well as the pathway of the deep western boundary current for the second indicator. When extracting the simulated contemporary AMOC-strengths for the central latitudes and depths of these optimal regions, we also find high correlations between AMOC-values and the North Atlantic future carbon uptake.  

Our regional optimisation shows that modelled discrepancies in the future North Atlantic carbon uptake originate in different transport efficiencies of dissolved inorganic carbon from the surface to the deep ocean. We find a strong and highly important link between a model’s performance for gulf stream and deep western boundary currents and a model’s ability to accurately project the future carbon uptake in the North Atlantic.  

How to cite: Goris, N., Johannsen, K., and Tjiputra, J.: Gulf Stream and Deep Western Boundary Currents are key to constrain the future North Atlantic Carbon Uptake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6957, 2022.

EGU22-7924 | Presentations | OS1.4

Diapycnal fluxes and overturning from a tracer release experiment in a tidal canyon 

Marie-Jose Messias, Herle Mercier, James Ledwell, Alberto Naveira Garabato, Raffaele Ferrari, and Matthew Alford

The overturning of the ocean has been classically described by sinking at high latitudes and upwelling of deep water in the ocean interior. However, measurements showing bottom enhanced mixing have suggested that the ocean interior experiences downwelling, and it has been recently proposed that the upwelling of deep water should arise over sloping boundaries. The Bottom Boundary Layer Turbulence and Abyssal Recipes project was set up to test this paradigm in the Rockall Trough, a natural laboratory of the deep ocean overturning. We conducted a tracer experiment that began by the injection of 15 kg of long lived inert SF5CF3 on the deep part of a tidal canyon in July 2021. The injection was performed in the bottom boundary layer, ~7 meters above the bottom, along streaks between 1800 m and 2000 m depth, tagging water at potential temperature of 3.6°C within a temperature window of 0.1°C. Within 24 hours we started the tracer survey along the full canyon length for two weeks (totalling 81 stations) and we report here on the integrated diapycnal fluxes (upwellings and downwellings) at key locations between 900 m and 2600 m depth, at different time steps from neap to spring tides. The tracer dispersion along the canyon unprecedently documents a rapid diapycnal upwelling of the tracer ranging from 50 to 300 meters per day driven by tidal mixing implying an overturning circulation. As the tracer evolved in the canyon under tidal sloshing, its leading edge was detected reaching 8.5°C at the canyon head as we entered spring tides. We will also report  on the tracer chase outside of the canyon   to explore the contribution of sloping boundary mixing to ventilation at the scale of the Rockall Trough.
 

How to cite: Messias, M.-J., Mercier, H., Ledwell, J., Naveira Garabato, A., Ferrari, R., and Alford, M.: Diapycnal fluxes and overturning from a tracer release experiment in a tidal canyon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7924, 2022.

EGU22-11982 | Presentations | OS1.4

Does the Natural DIC Affect the Storage of Total Inorganic Carbon in the Central Labrador Sea? 

Lorenza Raimondi, Toste Tanhua, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, and Doug Wallace

The Labrador Sea plays a central role in the oceanic storage of carbon. In particular, several studies have shown that this region has amongst the highest integrated column inventories of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) in the world’s ocean. The rate at which Cant is stored in this region appears to be connected to changes in ocean circulation and can therefore vary over time. Nevertheless, it is still unclear whether the temporal variability of the total Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) inventory is solely due to the changes in Cant concentrations or whether there is a contribution of the natural component of DIC to this signal.

The Bedford Institute of Oceanography has been maintaining the Atlantic Zone Off-Shore Monitoring Program (AZOMP) in the Labrador Sea since the early 1990s. The AZOMP involves annual occupations of the AR7W line that crosses the Labrador Sea and includes sampling of DIC, as well as multiple transient tracers such as CFC-12 and SF6.  

By using observations of DIC along the AR7W line, as well as previous estimates of Cant obtained with transient tracers (using a refined version of the Transit Time Distribution method; TTD) and new estimates of Cant based on the extended Multiple Linear Regression (eMLR) method, we provide a first insight on the role that the natural component of DIC plays in the temporal variability of inorganic carbon in the central Labrador Sea between 1993 and 2016.

We show that different methods to estimate Cant can lead to different conclusions on the role of the natural variability of DIC and that these discrepancies could be related to the assumptions implied in the Cant estimation methods. In particular an analysis of Cant estimates obtained with our refined version of the TTD method in different water masses, highlighted that further refinement of the tracers’ saturation assumption could be necessary in this region. This refinement could reconcile the Cant estimates from the two methods and therefore lead to an unambiguous role of the natural DIC in this region.

How to cite: Raimondi, L., Tanhua, T., Azetsu-Scott, K., and Wallace, D.: Does the Natural DIC Affect the Storage of Total Inorganic Carbon in the Central Labrador Sea?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11982, 2022.

One of the most important phenomena in the Arctic seas, in which all cascades of the scale of variability of oceanological processes are observed, are climatic and seasonal frontal zones. However, despite the climate changes noted by many researchers, so far, the ideas about the long-term dynamics and characteristics of the surface layer in the frontal zones in the Arctic region are fragmentary.

In our work, we considered seasonal and long-term variability of the Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ), the River Plumes Frontal Zone (RPFZ) and the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) in the Barents and Kara Seas. The authors evaluated their relationship with eddies structures and atmospheric oscillations. We used satellite data of temperature, salinity and sea level for the period from 2002 to 2020, which we processed using cluster analysis. To isolate the manifestations of eddies structures on the surface, we used radar images of the Envisat ASAR and Sentinel-1A/B. To analyze the relationship between the characteristics of the frontal zones and atmospheric oscillations, we used correlation analysis.

We have shown that the intensity of interannual and seasonal estimates of the SST gradient and the area of the PFZ and RPFZ in the first decade was an order of magnitude higher than in the period from 2011 to 2020. We observe the opposite pattern for the characteristics of the MIZ – in the second decade, the magnitude of the estimates of the SST gradient and area increases. We observe the maximum number of eddies structures in PFZ and RPFZ against the background of a general weakening of the SST gradients. We assume that this is due to the development of intense baroclinic instability in the frontal zones. In our opinion, the intensity of winter meridional transport over Northern Europe affects the growth of summer SST gradients and a decrease in the area of the PFZ and a decrease in SST in the RPFZ. The magnitude of the winter Arctic zonal transfer may increase the characteristics of SST in the RPFZ region. The value of the average seasonal gradient of the SST of the climatic surface PFZ is lower than that of the seasonal RPFZ and MIZ.

The analysis of frontal zone and eddies in this work was supported by RFBR grant 20-35-90053.

How to cite: Konik, A. and Zimin, A.: Seasonal and long-term variability of the characteristics surface frontal zones of the Barents and Kara seas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-60, 2022.

EGU22-571 | Presentations | OS1.6

Validation of the Arctic water and energy cycles in CMIP6 with consistent observation-based estimates 

Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, and Leopold Haimberger

This contribution focuses on the Arctic water budget, including its atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. Oceanic volume fluxes through the main Arctic gateways are calculated, using data from the CMEMS Global Reanalysis Ensemble Product (GREP), and compared to water input to the ocean from atmosphere and land. For this purpose, we use various state-of-the-art reanalyses, including the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF) latest products ERA5 and ERA5-Land and evaluate them against available satellite (e.g., GRACE) and in-situ river discharge observations.

To obtain a consistent estimate of all physical terms, we combine the most credible estimates of the individual budget terms and perform a variational optimization to obtain closed water budgets on annual and seasonal scales. This up-to-date estimate of the Arctic water cycle is subsequently used to validate historical runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Modelled water budget components are analyzed concerning their annual means, seasonal cycles and trends and compared to our observationally constrained data. Results suggest that there remain large uncertainties in the simulation of the Arctic water cycle of the recent decades.

Furthermore, we choose a similar approach to validate the coupled energy budget in CMIP6 models, including oceanic heat transports through the Arctic gateways (where mooring-derived oceanic heat transports are available), atmospheric energy transports and vertical energy fluxes at the surface and top-of-the-atmosphere, as well as Arctic Ocean heat storage.

This assessment helps to understand model biases in typically analyzed quantities such as sea ice extent or volume. It also provides physically based metrics for detecting outliers from the model ensemble which can help to reduce spread in future projections of Arctic change.

How to cite: Winkelbauer, S., Mayer, M., and Haimberger, L.: Validation of the Arctic water and energy cycles in CMIP6 with consistent observation-based estimates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-571, 2022.

EGU22-1414 | Presentations | OS1.6

Identification, characteristics, and dynamics of Arctic extreme seasons in ERA5 and CESM climate simulations 

Katharina Hartmuth, Maxi Boettcher, Heini Wernli, and Lukas Papritz

The Arctic atmosphere is strongly affected by anthropogenic warming leading to long-term trends in surface temperature and sea ice extent. In addition, it exhibits strong variability on time scales from days to seasons. While recent research elucidated processes causing long-term trends as well as synoptic extreme conditions in the Arctic, we investigate unusual atmospheric conditions on the seasonal time scale. We introduce a method to identify extreme seasons – deviating strongly from a running-mean climatology – based on a principal component analysis in the phase space spanned by the seasonal-mean values of surface temperature, precipitation, and the atmospheric components of the surface energy balance. Given the strongly varying surface conditions in the Arctic, this analysis is done separately in Arctic sub-regions that are climatologically characterized by either sea ice, open ocean, or mixed conditions.

Using ERA5 reanalyses for the years 1979-2018, our approach identifies 2-3 extreme seasons for each of winter, spring, summer, and autumn, with strongly differing characteristics and affecting different Arctic sub-regions. Results will be shown for two contrasting extreme winters affecting the Kara and Barents Seas, including their substructure, the role of synoptic-scale weather systems, and potential preconditioning by anomalous sea ice extent and/or sea surface temperature at the beginning of the season.

To statistically quantify and confirm these results, we further apply our method to large ensemble simulations of the CESM climate model, using roughly 1000 years of data in present-day (1990-2000) and end-of-century (2091-2100) climate, respectively. Results show a strong similarity between the characteristics of extreme seasons in ERA5 and CESM for the present-day period. The identified seasons predominantly show the most extreme seasonal-mean anomalies of the applied surface parameters, confirming that our approach captures seasons with extraordinary conditions. Preliminary results will also be shown about our current investigation of possible changes in the characteristics and driving mechanisms of Arctic extreme seasons in the warmer end-of-century climate.

The framework developed in this study and the insight gained from analyzing both, reanalysis and climate model data, will be insightful for better understanding the effects of global warming on Arctic extreme seasons.

How to cite: Hartmuth, K., Boettcher, M., Wernli, H., and Papritz, L.: Identification, characteristics, and dynamics of Arctic extreme seasons in ERA5 and CESM climate simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1414, 2022.

EGU22-1715 | Presentations | OS1.6

Water masses variability in the eastern Fram Strait explored through oceanographic mooring data and the CMEMS dataset 

Carlotta Dentico, Manuel Bensi, Vedrana Kovačević, Davide Zanchettin, and Angelo Rubino

The interaction between North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean waters plays a key role in climate variability and in
driving the global thermohaline circulation. In the past decades, an increased heat input to the Arctic has
occurred which is considered of high climatic relevance as, e.g., it contributes to enhancing sea ice melting.
In this frame, the progressive northward extension of the Atlantic signal within the Arctic domain known as
Arctic Atlantification is one of the most dramatic environmental local changes of the last decades.
In this study we used in situ data and the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS)
reanalysis dataset to explore spatial and temporal variability of water masses on different time-scales and
depths in the eastern Fram Strait. In that area, warm and salty Atlantic Water (AW) enters the Arctic Ocean
through the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). Time series of potential temperature, salinity and potential
density obtained from CMEMS reanalysis in the surface, upper-intermediate and deep layers referring to the
period 1991-2019 have been considered. High-frequency observations gathered from an oceanographic
mooring maintained by the National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS) in
collaboration with the Italian National Research Council - Institute of Polar Science (CNR-ISP) have been
used to assess the reliability of CMEMS data in reproducing ocean dynamics in the deep layer (ca 900-1000
m depth) of the SW offshore Svalbard area. The mooring system has been collecting data since June 2014.
In this contribution, we will show how the CMEMS data compared with in situ measurements as far as
seasonal and interannual variations as well as long-term trends are concerned. We will also discuss how
CMEMS reanalyses show differences in resolving ocean dynamics at different depths. Particularly, the severe
limitations in reproducing thermohaline variability at depths greater than 700 m. Finally, we will illustrate how
our results highlight strengths and limitations of CMEMS reanalyses, underscoring the importance of
optimizing measurements in a strategic area for studying climate change impacts in the Arctic and sub-Arctic
regions.

How to cite: Dentico, C., Bensi, M., Kovačević, V., Zanchettin, D., and Rubino, A.: Water masses variability in the eastern Fram Strait explored through oceanographic mooring data and the CMEMS dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1715, 2022.

EGU22-1760 | Presentations | OS1.6

Large biases in hydrography and circulation of the Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 models 

Céline Heuzé, Hannah Zanowski, Salar Karam, and Morven Muilwijk

Climate models are our best tools to quantify ongoing changes caused by the climate crisis, but they are not perfect. The Arctic Ocean is particularly challenging to simulate: complex circulation flowing through narrow gateways and around tortuous bathymetry, dense water cascading off the steep shelf break, slow exchanges in canyons, along with known biases in sea ice and neighbouring seas.

We investigate the Arctic Ocean in the historical run of 14 distinct models that participated to the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and find large biases in temperature, salinity, density, and depth of critical water masses, both on the shelves and in the deep basins. The biases are consistent throughout the water column and throughout the Arctic, with correlations often exceeding 0.9. However, no significant trend is observed in these biases, suggesting that the deep basins of the Arctic are not correctly ventilated already at the level of the Atlantic Water.

Using the subset of models that submitted the age of water output, we confirm this absence of ventilation by dense water overflows: the overflows occur at too few locations and are diluted at shallow depths.   

Work is ongoing to relate these biases to the relevant processes, the upper water column, and fluxes through the various Arctic Ocean gateways.

How to cite: Heuzé, C., Zanowski, H., Karam, S., and Muilwijk, M.: Large biases in hydrography and circulation of the Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1760, 2022.

EGU22-1782 | Presentations | OS1.6

Variability of surface transport pathways and how they affect Arctic basin-wide connectivity 

Yevgeny Aksenov, Chris Wilson, Stefanie Rynders, Stephen Kelly, Thomas Krumpen, and Andrew C. Coward

The Arctic Ocean is of central importance for the global climate and ecosystems. It is undergoing rapid climate change, with a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over recent decades. Surface advective pathways connect the transport of nutrients, freshwater, carbon and contaminants with their sources and sinks. Pathways of drifting material are deformed under velocity strain, due to atmosphere-ocean-ice coupling. Deformation is largest at fine space- and time-scales and is associated with a loss of potential predictability, analogous to weather often becoming unpredictable as synoptic-scale eddies interact and deform. However, neither satellite observations nor climate model projections resolve fine-scale ocean velocity structure. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model hindcast and coarser satellite-derived ice velocities, to show: that ensemble-mean pathways within the Transpolar Drift during 2004–14 have large interannual variability and that both saddle-like flow structures and the presence of fine-scale velocity gradients are important for basin-wide connectivity and crossing time, pathway bifurcation, and also for predictability and dispersion (the latter are covered in an associated paper [1].

The saddle-points in the flow and their neighbouring streamlines define flow separatrices, which partition the surface Arctic into separate regions of connected transport properties. The separatrix streamlines vary interannually and identify periods when the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, an important source of terragenic minerals, carbon and nutrients, is either connected or disconnected with Fram Strait and the North Atlantic. We explore the implications of this transport connectivity, with our new metric - the Separatrix Curvature Index – which in this context is arguably more informative than either the Arctic Oscillation or Arctic Ocean Oscillation indices.

This work resulted from the Advective Pathways of nutrients and key Ecological sub- stances in the Arctic (APEAR) project (NE/R012865/1, NE/R012865/2, #03V01461), part of the Changing Arctic Ocean programme, jointly funded by the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 820989 (project COMFORT). The work reflects only the authors' view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains. This work also used the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service and JASMIN, the UK collaborative data analysis facility. Satellitebased sea ice tracking was carried out as part of the Russian-German Research Cooperation QUARCCS funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) under grant 03F0777A. This study was carried out as part of the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) with the tag MOSAiC20192020 (AWI_PS122_1 and AF-MOSAiC-1_00) and the NERC Project “PRE-MELT” (Grant NE/T000546/1). We also acknowledge funding support received from the NERC National Capability programmes LTS-M ACSIS (North Atlantic climate system integrated study, grant NE/N018044/1) and LTS-S CLASS (Climate–Linked Atlantic Sector Science, grant NE/R015953/1). The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Maria Luneva to the discussions about the initial idea of the study and for highlighting the historical importance of observations from the Russian North Pole drifting stations. Sadly, Maria passed away suddenly in 2020 before the draft of the reported paper was written.

[1] Wilson, C., Aksenov, Y., Rynders, S. et al. Significant variability of structure and predictability of Arctic Ocean surface pathways affects basinwide connectivity. Commun. Earth. Environ. 2, 164 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00237-0.

How to cite: Aksenov, Y., Wilson, C., Rynders, S., Kelly, S., Krumpen, T., and Coward, A. C.: Variability of surface transport pathways and how they affect Arctic basin-wide connectivity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1782, 2022.

EGU22-2125 | Presentations | OS1.6

Variability of the Upper Ocean Energy Field in the Amundsen Basin, Arctic Ocean 

Wen-Chuan Wu, Ying-Chih Fang, and Benjamin Rabe

The dynamics of the Arctic Ocean are changing significantly with increasing global greenhouse gas emissions. Under the current warming scenario, the thinning of sea ice could affect Arctic thermohaline dynamics for the foreseeable future, which would affect the development of the energy cascade. Here, we analyze in situ Lagrangian measurements of the wintertime upper-ocean thermohaline field that were taken during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. Horizontal wavenumber spectra of density are examined from 13 approximately 100-km long transects from October 2019 – May 2020 to determine the steepness of spectra for different spatial scales. Unlike the relatively well-defined frequency spectra, horizontal wavenumber spectra yield variable patterns depending on the region of observations. This issue motivates us to investigate the current state of horizontal wavenumber spectra in the multiyear ice zone of the central Arctic. Our preliminary results show that the wavenumber spectra are not consistent in space and time, implying an interplay of stratification, mixed layer depth, and external forcing, such as ice dynamics.

How to cite: Wu, W.-C., Fang, Y.-C., and Rabe, B.: Variability of the Upper Ocean Energy Field in the Amundsen Basin, Arctic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2125, 2022.

EGU22-2274 | Presentations | OS1.6

Eddies and the distribution of eddy kinetic energy in the Arctic Ocean 

Wilken-Jon von Appen, Till Baumann, Markus Janout, Nikolay Koldunov, Yueng-Djern Lenn, Robert Pickart, Robert Scott, and Qiang Wang

Mesoscale eddies are important for many aspects of the dynamics of the Arctic Ocean. These include the maintenance of the halocline and the Atlantic Water boundary current through lateral eddy fluxes, shelf-basin exchanges, transport of biological material and sea ice, and the modification of the sea-ice distribution. Here we review what is known about the mesoscale variability and its impacts in the Arctic Ocean in the context of an Arctic Ocean responding rapidly to climate change. In addition, we present the first quantification of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) from moored observations across the entire Arctic Ocean, which we compare to output from an eddy resolving numerical model. We show that EKE is largest in the northern Nordic Seas/Fram Strait and it is also elevated along the shelfbreak of the Arctic Circumpolar Boundary Current, especially in the Beaufort Sea. In the central basins it is 100-1000 times lower. Except for the region affected by southward sea-ice export south of Fram Strait, EKE is stronger when sea-ice concentration is low compared to dense ice cover. Areas where conditions typical in the Atlantic and Pacific prevail will increase. Hence, we conclude that the future Arctic Ocean will feature more energetic mesoscale variability.

How to cite: von Appen, W.-J., Baumann, T., Janout, M., Koldunov, N., Lenn, Y.-D., Pickart, R., Scott, R., and Wang, Q.: Eddies and the distribution of eddy kinetic energy in the Arctic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2274, 2022.

The average rate of coastal change in the Arctic Ocean is -0.5 m/yr, despite significant local and regional variations, with large areas well above -3 m/yr. Recent data suggest an acceleration of coastal retreat in specific areas due to an increasingly shorter sea ice season, higher storminess, warmer ocean waters and sea-level rise. Moreover, climate warming is inducing the subaerial degradation of permafrost and increasing land to sea sediment transportation. This work consists of the characterization and analysis of the main controlling factors influencing recent coastline change in the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, Northwest Territories, Canada. The specific objectives are I. mapping Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula’s coastline at different time-steps using remote sensing imagery, II. quantifying the recent coastal change rates, III., characterizing the coastal morphology, IV. identifying the main controlling factors of the coastal change rates. A very high-resolution Pleiades survey from 2020, aerial photos from 1985 and the ArcticDEM were used. Results have shown an average coastline change rate of -1.06 m/yr between 1985 and 2020. While this number is higher than the Arctic average rate, it neglects to show the significance of extreme cases occurring in specific areas. Tundra cliffs are the main coastal setting, occupying c. 56% of the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula coast and foreshore beaches represent 51%. The results display an influence of coastal geomorphology on change rates. The coastal retreat was higher in backshore tundra flats (-1.74 m/yr), whereas more aggradation cases exist in barrier beaches and sandspits (-0.81 m/yr). The presence of ice-wedge polygons contributes to increasing cliff retreat. Foreshore assessment may be crucial, as beaches present a hindering impact on coastal retreat (-0.76 m/yr), whereas foreshore tundra flats promote it (-1.74 m/yr). There are 48 areas with retreat rates higher than -4 m/yr, most being submersion cases.

How to cite: Costa, B., Vieira, G., and Whalen, D.: The fast-changing coast of Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula (Beaufort Sea, Canada): geomorphological controls on changes between 1985 and 2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2426, 2022.

EGU22-2717 | Presentations | OS1.6

Subduction as Observed at a Submesoscale Front in the Marginal Ice Zone in Fram Strait 

Zerlina Hofmann, Wilken-Jon von Appen, Morten Iversen, and Lili Hufnagel

The marginal ice zone in Fram Strait is a highly variable environment, in which dense Atlantic Water and lighter Polar Water meet and create numerous mesoscale and submesoscale fronts. This makes it a model region for researching ocean frontal dynamics in the Arctic, as the interaction between Atlantic Water and the marginal ice zone is becoming increasingly important in an "atlantifying" Arctic Ocean. Here we present the first results of a front study conducted near the ice edge in central Fram Strait, where Atlantic Water subducted below Polar Water. We posit that the frontal dynamics associated with the sea ice edge also apply beyond, both to the open and the ice-covered ocean in the vicinity. They, in turn, can affect the structure of the marginal ice zone. The study comprises a total of 54 high resolution transects, most of which were oriented across the front. They were taken over the course of a week during July 2020 and include current velocity measurements from a vessel-mounted ADCP. Most of the transects also include either temperature and salinity measurements from an underway CTD, or temperature and salinity measurements and various biogeochemical properties from a TRIAXUS towed vehicle. Additionally, 22 CTD stations were conducted, and 31 surface drifters were deployed. This wealth of measurements gives us the opportunity to follow the temporal and spatial development of the density fronts present at the time. We discuss the dynamics of the frontal development, including the associated geostrophic motion, and the induced secondary ageostrophic circulation with subsequent subduction of Atlantic Water and biological material in a highly stratified region. Beneath the stratified upper ocean, subduction is clearly visible in the biogeochemical properties, and water samples indicate a substantial vertical transport of smaller particles. Surface drifters accumulated in locations of subduction, where sea ice, if present, would likely also accumulate. Our study thus demonstrates the importance of frontal dynamics for the vertical transport of water properties and biological material, and the highly variable development of the marginal ice zone in Fram Strait.

How to cite: Hofmann, Z., von Appen, W.-J., Iversen, M., and Hufnagel, L.: Subduction as Observed at a Submesoscale Front in the Marginal Ice Zone in Fram Strait, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2717, 2022.

EGU22-3069 | Presentations | OS1.6

Atlantic Water properties, transport, and water mass transformation from mooring observations north of Svalbard 

Zoé Koenig, Kjersti Kalhagen, Eivind Kolås, Ilker Fer, Frank Nilsen, and Finlo Cottier

The Atlantic Water inflow to the Arctic Ocean is transformed and modified in the ocean areas north of Svalbard, and influences the Arctic Ocean heat and salt budget. As the Atlantic Water layer advances into the Arctic, its core deepens from about 250 m depth around the Yermak Plateau to 350 m in the Laptev Sea, and gets colder and less saline due to mixing with surrounding waters. The complex topography in the region facilitates vertical and horizontal exchanges between the water masses and, together with strong shear and tidal forcing driving increased mixing rates, impacts the heat and salt content of the Atlantic Water layer that will circulate around the Arctic Ocean.

In September 2018, 6 moorings organized in 2 arrays were deployed across the Atlantic Water Boundary current for more than one year (until November 2019), within the framework of the Nansen Legacy project to investigate the seasonal variations of this current and the transformation of the Atlantic Water North of Svalbard. The Atlantic Water inflow exhibits a large seasonal signal, with maxima in core temperature and along-isobath velocities in fall and minima in spring. Volume transport of the Atlantic Water inflow varies from 0.7 Sv in spring to 3 Sv in fall. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of the daily cross-isobath temperature sections reveals that the first mode of variation (explained variance ~80%) is the seasonal cycle with an on/off mode in the temperature core. This first mode of variation is linked to the first mode of variation of the current. The second mode (explained variance ~ 15%) corresponds to a shorter time scale (6-7 days) variability in the onshore/offshore displacement of the temperature core linked to the mesoscale variability. On the shelf, a counter-current flowing westward is observed in spring, which transports colder (~ 1°C) and fresher (~ 34.85 g kg-1) water than Atlantic Water (θ > 2°C and SA > 34.9 g kg-1). This counter-current is driven by Ekman dynamics. At greater depth (~1000 m) on the offshore part of the slope, a bottom-intensified current is detected, partly correlated with the wind stress curl. Heat loss of the Atlantic Water between the two mooring arrays is maximum in winter, estimated to 300-400 W m-2 when the current speed and the heat loss to the atmosphere are the largest.

 

How to cite: Koenig, Z., Kalhagen, K., Kolås, E., Fer, I., Nilsen, F., and Cottier, F.: Atlantic Water properties, transport, and water mass transformation from mooring observations north of Svalbard, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3069, 2022.

EGU22-3289 | Presentations | OS1.6

Differences in Arctic sea ice simulations from various SODA3 data sets 

Zhicheng Ge, Xuezhu Wang, and Xidong Wang

SODA (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation) is one of the ocean reanalysis data widely used in oceanographic research. The SODA3 dataset provides multiple ocean reanalysis data sets driven by different atmospheric forcing fields. The differences between their arctic sea ice simulations are assessed and compared with observational data from different sources. We find that in the simulation of arctic sea ice concentration, the differences between SODA3 reanalysis data sets driven by different forcing fields are small, showing a low concentration of thick ice and a high concentration of thin ice. In terms of sea ice extent, different forced field model data can well simulate the decline trend of observed data, but the overall arctic sea ice extent is overestimated, which is related to more simulated sea ice in the sea ice margin. In terms of the simulation of arctic sea ice thickness, the results of different forcing fields show that the simulation of arctic sea ice thickness by SODA data set is relatively thin on the whole, especially in the thick ice region. The results of different models differ greatly in the Beaufort Sea, the Fram Strait, and the Central Arctic Sea. The above differences may be related to the differences between the model-driven field and the actual wind field, which leads to the inaccurate simulation of arctic sea ice transport and ultimately to the different thickness distribution simulation. In addition, differences in heat flux may also lead to differences in arctic sea ice between models and observations. In this paper, the differences between the results of arctic sea ice driven by different SODA3 forcing fields are studied, which provides a reference for the use of SODA3 data in the study of arctic sea ice and guidance for the selection of SODA data in the study of sea ice in different arctic seas.

How to cite: Ge, Z., Wang, X., and Wang, X.: Differences in Arctic sea ice simulations from various SODA3 data sets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3289, 2022.

EGU22-3494 | Presentations | OS1.6

Vigorous Internal Wave Generation at the Continental Slope North of Svalbard 

Till M. Baumann and Ilker Fer

Mixing along the pathway of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean is crucial for the distribution of heat in the Arctic Ocean. The warm boundary current typically flows along the upper continental slope where energy conversion from tides to turbulence and tidally driven mixing can be important; however, observations -and thus understanding- of these spatiotemporally highly variable processes are limited.

Here we analyze yearlong observations from three moorings (W1, W2 and W3) spanning the continental slope North of Svalbard at 18.5°E over 16 km from 400 m to 1200 m isobaths, deployed between September 2018 and October 2019. Full-depth current records show strong barotropic diurnal (i.e., sub-inertial) tidal currents, dominated by the K1 constituent. These tidal currents are strongest at mooring W2 over the continental slope (~700 m isobath) likely due to topographic trapping far north of their critical latitude (30°N). The diurnal tide undergoes a seasonal cycle with amplitudes reaching minima of ~4 cm/s in March/April and maxima of ~11 cm/s in June/July. Associated with the diurnal tide peak at W2 in summer 2019 is a strong baroclinic semidiurnal signal up to 15 cm/s around 4.5 km further offshore at W3 between 500 m and 1000 m depth. This semidiurnal current signal exhibits a fortnightly modulation and is characterized by upward energy propagation, indicative of generation at the bottom rather than the surface.

We hypothesize that the semidiurnal baroclinic waves are generated by the barotropic diurnal tide about 15 km upstream. There, the slope is oriented approximately normal to the major axis of the tidal current ellipses, maximizing the cross-isobath flow and thus the tidal energy conversion potential. The topographic slope angle approaches criticality for frequencies close to the second harmonic of K1 (2K1, with a semidiurnal period of 11.965 h) around the 620 m isobath and may thus facilitate an efficient generation of second harmonic internal waves. Linear superposition of a 2K1 wave with the rather weak (~5 cm/s) ambient M2 tide would explain the observed fortnightly modulation. The super-inertial wave (w2K1>f) propagates freely and its pathway is presently not known.

Although further research on the generation mechanism is needed, the strong baroclinic semidiurnal currents observed at the continental slope have direct implications for deep mixing. Furthermore, energetic diurnal tidal currents impinging on a steep continental slope are also known to generate non-linear internal lee-waves that can also lead to substantial turbulence and consequent mixing.

How to cite: Baumann, T. M. and Fer, I.: Vigorous Internal Wave Generation at the Continental Slope North of Svalbard, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3494, 2022.

EGU22-3595 | Presentations | OS1.6

Present and future influence of ocean heat transport on winter Arctic sea-ice variability 

Jakob Dörr, Marius Årthun, and Tor Eldevik

The recent retreat of Arctic sea ice area is overlaid by strong internal variability on all timescales. In winter, the variability is currently dominated by the Barents Sea, where it has been primarily driven by variable ocean heat transport from the Atlantic. As the loss of winter Arctic sea ice is projected to accelerate and the sea ice edge retreats deeper into the Arctic Ocean, other regions will see increased sea-ice variability. The question thus arises how the influence of the ocean heat transport will change. To answer this question, we analyze and contrast the present and future regional impact of ocean heat transport on the winter Arctic sea ice cover using a combination of observations and simulations from several single model large ensembles from CMIP5 and CMIP6. For the recent past we find a strong influence of the heat transport through the Barents Sea and the Bering Strait on the sea ice cover on the Pacific and Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, respectively. There is strong model agreement for an expanding influence of ocean heat transport through these two gateways for high and low warming scenarios. This highlights the future importance of the Pacific and Atlantic water inflows.

How to cite: Dörr, J., Årthun, M., and Eldevik, T.: Present and future influence of ocean heat transport on winter Arctic sea-ice variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3595, 2022.

EGU22-3652 | Presentations | OS1.6

High-resolution modelling of marine biogenic aerosol precursors in the Arctic realm 

Moritz Zeising, Laurent Oziel, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, Bernd Heinold, Svetlana Losa, Silke Thoms, and Astrid Bracher

The presence of liquid or ice as cloud phase determines the climate radiative effect of Arctic clouds, and thus, their contribution to surface warming. Biogenic aerosols from phytoplankton production localized in leads or open water were shown to act as cloud condensation nuclei (liquid phase) or ice nuclei (ice phase) in remote regions. As extensive measurements of biogenic aerosol precursors are still scarce, we conduct a modelling study and use acidic polysaccharides (PCHO) and transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) as tracers. In this study, we integrate processes of algal PCHO excretion during phytoplankton growth or under nutrient limitation and processes of TEP formation, aggregation and also remineralization into the ecosystem model REcoM2. The biogeochemical processes are described by two functional phytoplankton and two zooplankton classes, along with sinking detritus and several (in)organic carbon and nutrient classes. REcoM2 is coupled to the finite-volume sea ice ocean circulation model FESOM2 with a high resolution of up to 4.5 km in the Arctic. We will present the first results of simulated TEP distribution and seasonality patterns at pan-Arctic scale over the last decades. We will elucidate drivers of the seasonal cycle and will identify regional hotspots of TEP production and its decay. We will also address possible impacts of global warming and Arctic amplification of the last decades in our evaluation, as we expect a strong effect of global warming on microbial metabolic rates, phytoplankton growth, and composition of phytoplankton functional types. The results will be evaluated by comparison to a set of in-situ measurements (PASCAL, FRAM, MOSAiC). It is further planned that an atmospheric aerosol-climate model will build on the modeled biogenic aerosol precursors as input to quantify the net aerosol radiative effects. This work is part of the DFG TR 172 Arctic Amplification.

How to cite: Zeising, M., Oziel, L., Gürses, Ö., Hauck, J., Heinold, B., Losa, S., Thoms, S., and Bracher, A.: High-resolution modelling of marine biogenic aerosol precursors in the Arctic realm, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3652, 2022.

EGU22-3711 | Presentations | OS1.6

Eddies in the marginal ice zone of Fram Strait and Svalbard from spaceborne SAR observations in winter 

Igor Kozlov, Oksana Atadzhanova, and Sergey Pryakhin

In this work we investigate the intensity of eddy generation and their properties in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of Fram Strait and around Svalbard using spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from Envisat ASAR and Sentinel-1 in winter 2007 and 2018. Analysis of 2039 SAR images allowed identifying 4619 eddy signatures in the MIZ. While the overall length and the area of MIZ are different in 2007 and 2018, the number of eddies detected per image per kilometer of MIZ length is similar for both years.
Eddy diameters range from 1 to 68 km with mean values of 6 km and 12 km over shallow and deep water, respectively, suggesting that submesoscale and small mesoscale eddies prevail in the record. At eddy diameter scales of 1-15 km, cyclones strongly dominate over anticyclones. However, in the range of 15-30 km this difference is gradually vanishing, and for diameter values above 30 km anticyclones start to dominate slightly.
Mean eddy size grows with increasing ice concentration in the MIZ, yet most eddies are detected at the ice edge and where the ice concentration is below 20%. The fraction of sea ice trapped in cyclones (53%) is slightly higher than that in anticyclones (48%). The amount of sea ice trapped by a single ‘mean’ eddy is about 40 km2. Here we also attempt to give a first-order estimate of the eddy-induced horizontal sea ice retreat using observed values of eddy radii and amount of sea ice trapped in the eddies, and empirical mean values of ice bottom ablation and ice thickness. The obtained average horizontal ice retreat is about 0.2-0.5 km·d–1 ± 0.02 km·d–1. The spatial patterns of the eddy-induced horizontal sea ice retreat derived from SAR data suggest a pronounced decrease in MIZ area and a shift in the edge location that agrees with the observations.
The analysis of the spatial correlation between eddies, currents and winds shows that the intensity of eddy generation/observations and their detectability in the MIZ, and the width of eddy bands correlate with the intensity of northern and northeasterly winds. In some regions, e.g. along the Greenland Sea shelf break, in Fram Strait and over the Spitsbergen Bank the probability values of eddy occurrence in the MIZ seem to correlate with stronger boundary currents, while north of Svalbard and over Yermak Plateau higher eddy probability values are observed under low/moderate currents and winds.
This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant # 21-17-00278 (analysis of sea ice conditions, ice trapping and melting by eddies) and by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation state assignment # 075-00429-21-03 (data acquisition & processing).

How to cite: Kozlov, I., Atadzhanova, O., and Pryakhin, S.: Eddies in the marginal ice zone of Fram Strait and Svalbard from spaceborne SAR observations in winter, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3711, 2022.

EGU22-4360 | Presentations | OS1.6

Properties of mesoscale eddies in the Arctic Icean from a very high-resolution model 

Vasco Müller and Qiang Wang

Mesoscale eddies are believed to play a substantial role for the dynamics of the Arctic Ocean, influencing the interaction of the ocean with the atmosphere and sea-ice as well as the transport and mixing of water masses. Especially their effects on the thermohaline structure and stratification could be crucial for better understanding future changes in the Arctic and the ongoing ‘atlantification’ of the Arctic Ocean water masses. Better understanding of Arctic eddy dynamics also allows the improvement of parametrization of eddy processes in models, which is critical for a realistic representation of the Arctic in climate models and understanding the role of the Arctic Ocean in the global climate. However, simulating Arctic Ocean mesoscale eddies in ocean circulation models presents a great challenge due to their small size at high latitudes and adequately resolving mesoscale processes in the Arctic requires very high resolution, making simulations very computationally expensive.
Here, we use the new unstructured‐mesh Finite volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM2) with 1-km horizontal resolution in the Arctic Ocean to evaluate properties of mesoscale eddies. This very high-resolution model setup can be considered eddy resolving in the Arctic Ocean and has recently been used to investigate the distribution of eddy kinetic energy in the Arctic. The analysis here is based on automatically identifying and tracking eddies using a vector geometry-based algorithm and focuses on the model’s representation of eddy properties and dynamics. In-situ observations from the year-long MOSAiC expedition give us the unique possibility to assess the model’s representation of eddy properties against direct observations, both in the Arctic summer and winter seasons.

How to cite: Müller, V. and Wang, Q.: Properties of mesoscale eddies in the Arctic Icean from a very high-resolution model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4360, 2022.

EGU22-5299 | Presentations | OS1.6

Divergence in CMIP6 projections of future Arctic Ocean stratification 

Morven Muilwijk, Lars H. Smedsrud, Igor V. Polyakov, Aleksi Nummelin, Céline Heuzé, and Hannah Zanowski

The Arctic Ocean is strongly stratified by salinity gradients in the uppermost layers. This stratification is a key attribute of the region as it acts as an effective barrier for the vertical exchanges of Atlantic Water (AW) heat, nutrients, and CO2 between  intermediate depths and the surface of the deep Eurasian and Amerasian Basins (EB and AB). Observations show that from 1970 to 2017, the stratification in the AB has strengthened, whereas, in parts of the EB, the stratification has weakened. The strengthening of the stratification in the AB is linked to a freshening and deepening of the halocline. The weakened stratification in parts of the EB is linked to a shoaling, warming, and lack of freshening of the halocline (Atlantification). Future simulations from a suite of CMIP6 models project that under a strong greenhouse-gas forcing scenario (SSP585), the AB and EB surface freshening and AW warming continues. To meaningfully compare hydrographic changes in the simulations, we present a new indicator of stratification. We find that within the AB, there is agreement among the models that the upper layers will become more stratified in the future. However, within the EB models  diverge regarding future stratification. We discuss and detail some mechanisms responsible for these simulated discrepancies.

 

How to cite: Muilwijk, M., Smedsrud, L. H., Polyakov, I. V., Nummelin, A., Heuzé, C., and Zanowski, H.: Divergence in CMIP6 projections of future Arctic Ocean stratification, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5299, 2022.

EGU22-5601 | Presentations | OS1.6

Studying Atlantic Water heat in the Arctic Ocean using the CESM Large Ensemble 

Alice Richards, Helen Johnson, and Camille Lique

Atlantic Water is the most significant source of oceanic heat in the Arctic Ocean, isolated from the surface by a strong halocline across much of the region. However, an increase in Atlantic Water temperatures and a decrease in eastern Arctic stratification are thought to have contributed to Arctic sea-ice loss in recent decades. Investigating how Atlantic Water heat is likely to change and affect the upper ocean during the coming decades is therefore an important part of understanding the future Arctic. In this study, data from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble are used to investigate forced trends and natural variability in the Atlantic Water layer properties and heat fluxes over the period 1920-2100, under an RCP 8.5 scenario from 2006.

How to cite: Richards, A., Johnson, H., and Lique, C.: Studying Atlantic Water heat in the Arctic Ocean using the CESM Large Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5601, 2022.

EGU22-5807 | Presentations | OS1.6

A multidecadal model estimate of pan-Arctic coastal erosion rates and associated nutrient fluxes 

Stefanie Rynders and Yevgeny Aksenov

Arctic coastal erosion is an environmental hazard expected to increase under climate change, due to decreasing sea ice protection along with increasing wave heights. In addition to the impact on land, this affects the marine environment, as coastal erosion is a source of organic matter, carbon and nutrients for the coastal waters and shelf seas in the Arctic. Following Barnhart et al., we adapted the White model for iceberg melt to calculate pan-coastal erosion rates. The approach combines ice, ocean and wave model output with permafrost model output and geological characteristics from observations. The calculated erosion rates show large spatial variability, similar to observations, as well as a large seasonal cycle. Additionally, it brings to light the increasing trend between the 1980s and 2010s, with a lengthening of the erosion season, plus inter-annual variability. Using observed nutrient ratios, the erosion rates are converted to biogeochemical sources, which can be used for marine ecosystem models. The approach could be used on-line in earth system models, providing both projections of future erosion rates as well as improved biogeochemistry projections. We acknowledge financial support from Advective Pathways of nutrients and key Ecological substances in the Arctic (APEAR) project (NE/R012865/1, NE/R012865/2, #03V01461), as part of the Changing Arctic Ocean programme, jointly funded by the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), and from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under project COMFORT (grant agreement no. 820989), for which the work reflects only the authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.

How to cite: Rynders, S. and Aksenov, Y.: A multidecadal model estimate of pan-Arctic coastal erosion rates and associated nutrient fluxes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5807, 2022.

EGU22-6164 | Presentations | OS1.6

Submesoscale dynamics in the central Arctic Ocean during MOSAiC: optimising the use of observations and high-resolution modelling. 

Ivan Kuznetsov, Benjamin Rabe, Ying-Chih Fang, Alexey Androsov, Alejandra Quintanilla Zurita, Mario Hoppmann, Volker Mohrholz, Sandra Tippenhauer, Kirstin Schulz, Vera Fofonova, Markus Janout, Ilker Fer, Till Baumann, Hailong Liu, and Maria Patricia Mallet

Submesoscale features with profound impact on ocean dynamics and climate-relevant fluxes are frequently observed in the upper ocean including Arctic region. Yet, modelling these features remains a challenge due to the difficulties in the parameterization of submesoscale processes and high resolution required, in particular, in the polar regions. The most effective way to study such phenomena is joint modelling and observational work. Several autonomous observation platforms have been deployed as part of Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) experiment within an approximately 50 km radius around the central observatory. Data from these buoys in combination with data from the central observatory provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct 3D water properties and velocity by constraining a numerical model that resolves the dynamics of the (sub-)mesoscale. It turns out that a minimum root mean square error between results of an optimal interpolation and observations indicates a characteristic length scale of about 7.5 km, corresponding approximately the first-mode barolinic Rossby radius in the area of investigation. However, results of the interpolation are questionable at the sub-mesoscale due to the distribution of the buoy observations in time and horizontal space. In order to describe the in-situ data to achieve a better characterization and understanding of (sub-)mesoscale dynamics we developed and applied a modification of the 3D regional model FESOM-C. The observed temperature and salinity were used to nudge the model to obtain an optimized solution at the resolution of the models. A series of simulations with different horizontal resolutions and model parameters make it possible to analyze the ability of models of this type to reproduce the observed dynamics, to estimate eddy kinetic energy and power spectra, and to compare findings with the observations used to nudge the model. We will show the eddy-induced fluxes and characteristics of eddies along the track of the beginning winter MOSAiC drift.

How to cite: Kuznetsov, I., Rabe, B., Fang, Y.-C., Androsov, A., Zurita, A. Q., Hoppmann, M., Mohrholz, V., Tippenhauer, S., Schulz, K., Fofonova, V., Janout, M., Fer, I., Baumann, T., Liu, H., and Mallet, M. P.: Submesoscale dynamics in the central Arctic Ocean during MOSAiC: optimising the use of observations and high-resolution modelling., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6164, 2022.

EGU22-6176 | Presentations | OS1.6

Heat and salt budgets in the Hornsund fjord 

Anna Przyborska, Agnieszka Strzelewicz, Maciej Muzyka, and Jaromir Jakacki

Climate change is affecting all the Svalbard fjords, which are more or less subject to global warming.  In situ observations in the Hornsund fjord indicate that more and more warm Atlantic water is reaching the fjord as well, and this may influence the rate of melting of sea ice and glaciers, which is likely to increase.  

More freshwater enters the fjord in several different ways. Melting glaciers bring freshwater in the form of surface inflows from freshwater sources, in the form of submarine meltwater at the interface between ocean and ice, and in the form of calving icebergs.  Retreating glaciers and melting sea ice allow the warm Atlantic waters to reach increasingly inland fjord basins and more heat stored in the fjords causes increased melting of the inner fjord glaciers.  The increasing amounts of freshwater in the fjord can change the local ecosystem.

Estimates of the heat and the salt fluxes will give a better understanding of how the ocean interacts with the glaciers through submarine melting and vice versa, how glaciers interact with the ocean through freshwater supply.  Budgetary conditions will be calculated from the high resolution model results (HRM) of velocity, temperature and salinity for the interior of the Hornsund fjord.

Calculations were carried out at the Academic Computer Centre in Gdańsk

How to cite: Przyborska, A., Strzelewicz, A., Muzyka, M., and Jakacki, J.: Heat and salt budgets in the Hornsund fjord, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6176, 2022.

EGU22-6421 | Presentations | OS1.6

Evolution of the wintertime salt budget of the Arctic Ocean mixed layer observed during MOSAIC 

Torsten Kanzow, Benjamin Rabe, Janin Schaffer, Ivan Kuznetsov, Mario Hoppmann, Sandra Tippenhauer, Tao Li, Volker Mohrholz, Markus Janout, Luisa von Albedyll, Timothy Stanton, Lars Kaleschke, Christian Haas, Kirstin Schulz, and Ruibo Lei

In wintertime, the Arctic Ocean mixed layer (ML) regulates the transport of oceanic heat to the sea ice, and transfers both momentum and salt between the ice and the stratified ocean below. Between October, 2019, and May, 2020, we recorded time series of wintertime ML-relevant properties at unprecedented resolution during the MOSAIC expedition. Vertical and horizontal salt and temperature gradients, vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, turbulent dissipation of kinetic energy, growth of both level and lead ice, and ice deformation were obtained from both the Central Observatory and the Distributed Network around it.  

We find that the ML deepened from 20 m at the onset of the MOSAIC drift to 120 m at the end of the winter. The ML salinity showed a decrease between early November 2019 and mid-January 2020 followed by a pronounced increase during February and March 2020 - marking the coldest period of the observations. Applying the equation of salt conservation to the ML as a guiding framework, we combine the abovementioned observations, to intercompare the temporal evolutions of the different processes affecting salinity. Overall, brine rejection associated with thermodynamic ice growth turns out to be the largest salt flux term in the ML salt budget. Thereby the observed amplitudes of upward ocean heat fluxes into the mixed layer are too small for them to have a relevant impact on limiting ice growth. Horizontal salt advection in the ML is the second-most important flux term, actually representing a net sink of salt, thus counteracting brine release. It displays considerably larger temporal variability than brine release, though, due to the variable of ocean currents and horizontal salt gradients. Vertical ocean salt fluxes across the mixed layer base represent the third-most important salt flux term, showing particularly elevated values during storm events, when small-scale turbulence in the ML is triggered by the winds. The results presented will be interpreted in the context of the changes in the regional and temporal ocean, atmosphere and sea ice properties encountered during the MOSAIC drift.

How to cite: Kanzow, T., Rabe, B., Schaffer, J., Kuznetsov, I., Hoppmann, M., Tippenhauer, S., Li, T., Mohrholz, V., Janout, M., von Albedyll, L., Stanton, T., Kaleschke, L., Haas, C., Schulz, K., and Lei, R.: Evolution of the wintertime salt budget of the Arctic Ocean mixed layer observed during MOSAIC, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6421, 2022.

The unprecedented warming in the Arctic opens broad prospects for connecting the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to the Maritime Silk Road. Such a "docking" will significantly impact the global economy. The main problems of the Northern Sea Route are the harsh environmental conditions of the North and, most importantly, the presence of sea ice. While, on average, the ice-free period lasts from June to November, the dates of start and end of ice season vary from year to year within a month or even more. Such variability is impossible to capture by numerical weather prediction, limiting predictability for five days. Therefore, currently, there is no specific timeframe when the waterway is free of ice.

Here I show that a long-range forecast for the navigation season is possible for specific locations in Bering and Okhotsk Seas. The approach is fundamentally different from the numerical weather and climate models; it is based on statistical physics principles and recently discovered spatial-temporal regularities in the Asian-Pacific monsoon system [1]. The regularities appear in the form of spatially organized critical transitions in the near-surface atmosphere over the see. The specific locations mean critical areas - tipping elements of the spatial-temporal structure of ice formation, which are identified via data analysis. I rely on the distribution of near-surface air temperature and wind data (NCEP/NCAR re-analyses data set) to reveal conditions for ice formation [2]. I show that a transition from open water to ice season begins when the near-surface air temperature crosses a critical threshold, it is a starting point for forecasting the ice season's start date. The approach provides long-term predictions of the ice season's start in critical areas 30 days in advance.

Furthermore, the transition from water to ice in the Bering and Okhotsk Seas is driven by the Asian-Pacific monsoon air movements. It has the following implications. First, there is a linkage between the onset of ice formation in the northern part of the Bering Sea and the western part of the Sea of Okhotsk. Second, Asian Monsoon, including the Indian monsoon [3], is driven by the same Asian-Pacific system [4]. As a result, the timing of the monsoon is linked with the ice season. These findings show that it is essential to consider these connections to overcome regional forecast limitations. The system approach applied on a continental scale will be relevant for improving the long-term monsoon and ice season forecasts, which we desperately need for climate adaptation.

ES acknowledges the financial support of the EPICC project (18_II_149_Global_A_Risikovorhersage) funded by BMU and the RFBR (No. 20-07-01071).

[1] Stolbova, V., E. Surovyatkina, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths (2016): Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal. GRL 43, 1–9 [doi:10.1002/2016GL068392]

[2] Surovyatkina, E. and Medvedev, R.: Ice Season forecast under ClimateChange: Tipping element approach, EGU General Assembly 2020, EGU2020-20073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20073

[3] https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/output/infodesk/forecasting-indian-monsoon

[4] Surovyatkina, E.: The impact of Arctic warming on the timing of Indian monsoon and ice season in the Sea of Okhotsk, EGU General Assembly 2021, EGU21-13582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13582

How to cite: Surovyatkina, E.: Long-Range Forecast for the Navigation Season: linking the Northern Sea Route and Maritime Silk Road, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6572, 2022.

EGU22-6930 | Presentations | OS1.6

Physical manifestations and ecological implications of Arctic Atlantification 

Karen M. Assmann, Randi B. Ingvaldsen, Raul Primicerio, Maria Fossheim, Igor V. Polyakov, and Andrey V. Dolgov

The Atlantic gateway to the Arctic Ocean is influenced by vigorous inflows of Atlantic Water. Particularly since 2000, the high-latitude impacts of these inflows have strengthened due to climate change driving so-called ‘Atlantification’ - a transition of Arctic waters to a state more closely resembling that of the Atlantic. In this review, we discuss the physical and ecological manifestations of Atlantification in a hotspot region of climate change reaching from the southern Barents Sea to the Eurasian Basin. Atlantification is driven by anomalous Atlantic Water inflows and modulated by local processes. These include reduced atmospheric cooling, which amplifies warming in the southern Barents Sea; reduced freshwater input and stronger influence

of ice import in the northern Barents Sea; and enhanced upper ocean mixing and air–ice–ocean coupling in the Eurasian Basin. Ecosystem responses to Atlantification encompass increased production, northward expansion of boreal species (borealization), an increased importance of the pelagic compartment populated by new species, an increasingly connected food web and a gradual reduction of the ice-associated ecosystem compartment.

How to cite: Assmann, K. M., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Primicerio, R., Fossheim, M., Polyakov, I. V., and Dolgov, A. V.: Physical manifestations and ecological implications of Arctic Atlantification, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6930, 2022.

EGU22-6934 | Presentations | OS1.6

Barents Sea Polar Front dynamics during fall and winter 2020-2021 

Eivind Hugaas Kolås, Till Baumann, Ilker Fer, and Zoe Koenig

The Barents Sea is one of the main pathways by which Atlantic Water (AW) enters the Arctic Ocean and is an important region for key water mass transformation and production. As AW enters the shallow (< 400 m) Barents Sea, it propagates as a topographically steered current along a series of shallow troughs and ridges, while being transformed through atmospheric heat fluxes and exchanges with surrounding water masses. To the north, the warm and salty AW is separated from the cold and fresh Polar Water (PW) by a distinct dynamic thermohaline front (the Barents Sea Polar Front), often less than 15 km in width.

Two cruises were conducted in October 2020 and February 2021 within the Nansen Legacy project, focusing on the AW pathways and ocean mixing processes in the Barents Sea. Here we present data from CTD (Conductivity, Temperature, Depth), ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) and microstructure sensors obtained during seven ship transects and two repeated stations across and on top of a 200 m deep sill (77°18’N, 30°E) at the location of the Polar Front between AW and PW. The ship transects are complemented by five underwater glider missions, two equipped with microstructure sensors. On the sill, we observe warm (>2°C) and salty (>34.8) AW intruding below the colder (<0°C) and fresher (34.4) PW setting up a geostrophic balance where currents exceed 20 cm/s. We observe anomalous warm and cold-water patches on the cold and warm side of the front, respectively, collocated with enhanced turbulence, where dissipation rates range between 10-8 and 10-7 W/kg. In addition, tidal currents on the sill reach 15 cm/s. The variable currents affect the front structure differently in the vertical. While the mid-depth location of the front is shifted by several kilometers, the location of the front near the bottom remains stationary.  The frontal dynamics on the sill result in transformation and mixing of AW, manifested in the troughs north of the sill as modified AW.

How to cite: Hugaas Kolås, E., Baumann, T., Fer, I., and Koenig, Z.: Barents Sea Polar Front dynamics during fall and winter 2020-2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6934, 2022.

EGU22-7237 | Presentations | OS1.6 | Highlight

Sea-ice deformation forecasts for the MOSAiC Arctic drift campaign in the SIDFEx database 

Valentin Ludwig and Helge Goessling and the SIDFEx Team

The Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment (SIDFEx) database comprises more than 180,000 forecasts for trajectories of single sea-ice buoys in the Arctic and Antarctic, collected since 2017. SIDFEx is a community effort originating from the Year Of Polar Prediction. Forecasts are provided by various forecast centres and collected, and archived by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI). AWI provides a dedicated software package and an interactive online platform for analysing the forecasts. Their lead times range from daily to seasonal scales. Among the buoys targeted by SIDFEx are the buoys of the Distributed Network (DN) array which was deployed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. In this contribution, we show to what extent the deformation (divergence, shear and vorticity) of the DN can be forecasted by the SIDFEx forecasts. We investigate the performance of single models as well as a consensus forecast which merges the single forecasts to a seamless best-guess forecast. 

How to cite: Ludwig, V. and Goessling, H. and the SIDFEx Team: Sea-ice deformation forecasts for the MOSAiC Arctic drift campaign in the SIDFEx database, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7237, 2022.

EGU22-7240 | Presentations | OS1.6

Arctic Ocean Heat Content as a Driver of Regional Sea Ice Variability 

Elena Bianco, Doroteaciro Iovino, Stefano Materia, Paolo Ruggieri, and Simona Masina

The Arctic Ocean is transitioning from permanently ice-covered to seasonally ice-free, with thinner and more dynamic sea ice. This strengthens the coupling with the atmosphere and the ocean, which exert a strong influence on sea ice via thermodynamic and dynamic forcing mechanisms. Short-term predictions are met with the challenge of disentangling the preconditioning processes that regulate sea ice variability, as these often trigger a response that is not uniform in time nor in space.  This study assesses the role of ocean heat content (OHC) as a driver of sea ice variability for five different regions of the Arctic Ocean. We choose to focus on a sub-seasonal time frame, with the goal of investigating whether anomalies in ocean heat content offer a source of predictability for sea ice in the following months and whether this coupling varies across different regions and seasons. To account for the different processes that regulate the Arctic Ocean heat budget, we consider ocean heat content in the mixed layer (OHCML) and in the upper 300 m (OHC300), computed from the CMCC Global Ocean Reanalysis C-GLORSv5 for the period 1979-2017. Time-lagged correlations of linearly detrended anomalies suggest a link between heat content and sea ice variability in the following months. This source of predictability is stronger during the melt season and peaks in autumn, with highest correlations in the Kara and Chukchi regions. Consistent with previous studies, a distinctive response is observed for the Barents Sea, where sea ice is more strongly coupled with the ocean during the freezing season.  Our preliminary results support a central role of OHC as a driver of sea ice thermodynamic changes at sub-seasonal scales, a mechanism that is likely to become stronger under ice-depleted conditions.   

How to cite: Bianco, E., Iovino, D., Materia, S., Ruggieri, P., and Masina, S.: Arctic Ocean Heat Content as a Driver of Regional Sea Ice Variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7240, 2022.

EGU22-7793 | Presentations | OS1.6

Decadal variability in the transient tracer distribution in the upper Arctic Ocean 

Wiebke Körtke, Maren Walter, Oliver Huhn, and Monika Rhein

The Arctic is warming stronger and faster than other regions during the climate change. Within this development, the Arctic Ocean’s water masses and ventilation processes are changing as well. Transient anthropogenic tracers can be used to track water masses and to investigate ventilation and mixing processes. For these tracers, e.g. chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), the atmosphere is the only source to the ocean and they are conservative in the water. In this study, we analyse CFC-12 (CCl2F2) along two transects in the Canadian basin of the central Arctic Ocean covered in different decades (T1: 1994 and 2015, T2: 2005 and 2015), with additional hydrographic data for context. We find differences in both the tracer concentration and the hydrographic properties between the years and transects. Along the first transect (located at ~180°W), the difference in saturation between 2015 and 1994 is largest in the layer of the Atlantic Water at high latitudes (> 82°N). A similar strong increase in CFC-12 saturation is observed along the second transect (located at 150°W). In contrast to the saturation increase in the Atlantic Water layer, we find a decrease close to the surface, which is correlated to oversaturations in 2005 in this region. At the same time, the surface waters were more saline in 2005 indicating a mixing event. Oversaturation is present in all years, except in 1994. Existence of oversaturation can be caused by special events, either inside the ocean (by mixing processes) or at the sea ice-ocean-atmosphere interface (by the occurrence of changes in the sea ice concentration or atmospheric forcing). We compare the tracer results with hydrographic properties, as well as with wind and ice conditions present during the time of measurements, to investigate the causes of the observed changes. Further, the time dependent atmospheric concentrations of CFCs are used to determine the age of water masses. Here, we use the simplest possible approach of age determination to identify the age of the Atlantic Water along the transects, assuming no interaction or exchange with the surrounding water masses after the Atlantic Water left the surface in Fram Strait. Due to the decreasing CFC-12 atmospheric concentration after 2003/04, it is necessary to use sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) as an additional tracer for 2015. Along the first transect, the tracer age of CFC-12 for 1994 is compared to the tracer age of SF6 in 2015. In 2015 the tracer age is much higher in the region south of 80°N compared to 1994, while the ages are quite similar at higher latitudes. The higher age in the southern part of the transect indicates a water mass, that is much older in 2015 than it was in 1994, a sign of a possible circulation change. A similar result is found along the second transect, where the new tracer SF6 is available in both years. Along this transect, the water is also older in 2015 than in 2005.

How to cite: Körtke, W., Walter, M., Huhn, O., and Rhein, M.: Decadal variability in the transient tracer distribution in the upper Arctic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7793, 2022.

EGU22-8055 | Presentations | OS1.6

Atlantic Water boundary current along the southern Yermak Plateau, Arctic Ocean 

Ilker Fer and Algot K. Peterson

One of the major branches of the warm and saline Atlantic Water supply is the current along the west coast of Spitsbergen in Fram Strait. The Yermak Plateau is a topographic obstacle in the path of this current. The diverging isobaths of the Plateau split the current, with an outer branch following the 1000-1500 m isobaths along the rim of the Yermak Plateau (the Yermak branch). Observation based estimates of the volume transport, structure and variability of the Yermak branch are scarce.

Here we present observations from an array of three moorings on the southern flank of the Yermak Plateau, covering the AW boundary current along the slope, between the 800 m to 1600 m isobaths over 40 km distance, from 11 September 2014 to 13 August 2015. The aim is to estimate the volume transport in temperature classes to quantify the contribution of the Yermak branch, to document the observed mesoscale variability, and identify the role of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities on the variability.

All three moorings show depth- and time-averaged currents directed along isobaths, with the middle mooring in the core of the boundary current. Depth-averaged current speeds in the core, averaged over monthly time scale, reach 20 cm s-1 in March. Temperatures are always greater than 0°C in the upper 800 m, or than 2°C in the upper 500 m. Seasonal averaged volume transport estimates of Atlantic Water defined as temperature above 2°C, are maximum in autumn (1.4 ± 0.2 Sv) and decrease to 0.8 ± 0.1 Sv in summer. The annual average AW transport is 1.1 ± 0.2 Sv, below which there is bottom-intensified current, particularly strong in winter, leading to a substantial transport of cold water (<0°C) with an annual average of 1.1 ± 0.2 Sv.

Mesoscale variability and energy conversion rates are estimated using fluctuations of velocity and stratification in the 35 h to 14-days band and averaging over a monthly time scale.  Time-averaged profiles of horizontal kinetic energy (HKE) show a near-surface maximum in the outer and middle (core) moorings decreasing to negligible values below 700 m depth. HKE averaged between 100-500 m depth increases from about 3×10-3 m2 s-2 in fall to (6-9)×10-3 m2 s-2 in winter and early spring.  Temperature and cross-isobath velocity covariances show substantial mid-depth temperature fluxes in winter. Divergence of temperature flux between the core and outer moorings suggests that heat is extracted by eddies. Depth-averaged energy conversion rates show typically small barotropic conversion, not significantly different from zero, and highly variable baroclinic conversion rates with alternating sign at 1-2 month time scales. Observations suggest that the boundary current is characterized by baroclinic instabilities, which particularly dominate in winter months. 

How to cite: Fer, I. and Peterson, A. K.: Atlantic Water boundary current along the southern Yermak Plateau, Arctic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8055, 2022.

EGU22-8234 | Presentations | OS1.6

Towards Late Quaternary sea ice reconstructions in the Arctic with sedimentary ancient DNA. 

Tristan Cordier, Danielle M. Grant, Kristine Steinsland, Katja Häkli, Dag Inge Blindheim, Agnes Weiner, Aud Larsen, Jon Thomassen Hestetun, Jessica Louise Ray, and Stijn De Schepper

Sea ice has a pivotal role in the regulation of the Arctic climate system, and by extension to the global climate. Our knowledge of its historical variation and extent is limited to the satellite records that only cover the last several decades, which considerably hampers our understanding on how past climate has influenced sea ice extent in the Arctic. Latest modelling efforts indicate that the Arctic may be sea ice free in summer by 2050, making the appreciation of the effects that such major change will have on Arctic ecosystems of paramount importance. Here, we will present the first results of the AGENSI project (www.agensi.eu) aiming at reconstructing the past sea ice evolution with sedimentary ancient DNA. Based on a large collection of surface sediments collected along multiple gradients of sea ice cover in the Arctic, we show that plankton DNA sinking to the seafloor can be used to predict the variation of surface sea ice cover. Further, we will present our current efforts to utilize this dataset to reconstruct the past sea ice variation in Late Quaternary sediment cores.

How to cite: Cordier, T., Grant, D. M., Steinsland, K., Häkli, K., Blindheim, D. I., Weiner, A., Larsen, A., Hestetun, J. T., Ray, J. L., and De Schepper, S.: Towards Late Quaternary sea ice reconstructions in the Arctic with sedimentary ancient DNA., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8234, 2022.

EGU22-8941 | Presentations | OS1.6

North Water Polynya Sensitivity to Arctic Warming 

Rajan Patel, Patrick Ugrinow, Alexandra Jahn, and Chris Wyburn-Powell

The North Water Polynya (NOW) in northern Baffin Bay contains nutrient-rich waters which are essential to the biodiversity of the region and the native Inuit people. Over the observational period the size and duration of the NOW in spring has varied considerably, and recent studies suggest the NOW may fail to form in the future. Even small changes to the polynya have the potential to impact local ocean circulation and nutrient cycling. 

To assess the projected changes to the NOW, we look at CMIP5 large ensembles under multiple forcing scenarios. Initial results from CESM1 LE suggest that global temperatures greater than 2.5ºC above pre-industrial levels shift the peak polynya area from June to May. Work is ongoing to assess biogenic and physical impacts of such changes. Implications for climate change are that to avoid large changes to the NOW, warming should be limited.

Additionally, the Polynya area fluctuates with time but decreases as a whole throughout the 21st century.

How to cite: Patel, R., Ugrinow, P., Jahn, A., and Wyburn-Powell, C.: North Water Polynya Sensitivity to Arctic Warming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8941, 2022.

EGU22-9569 | Presentations | OS1.6

Interplay between subsurface eddies and sea ice over the Arctic Ocean 

Angelina Cassianides, Camille Lique, Anne Marie Treguier, Gianluca Meneghello, and Charly Demarez

The paucity of observations over the Arctic Ocean prevents us from fully understanding the interaction between sea ice and mesoscale dynamics. Previous studies on this interplay have documented the interaction between surface eddies and sea ice, omitting the subsurface eddies. This work focuses on the possible role of these subsurface eddies in shaping the sea ice distribution. First, we perform an extensive eddy census over the period 2004-2020 over the Arctic Basin, based on data from Ice Tethered Profilers (ITP) and moorings from the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project. About 500 subsurface eddies are detected, including both submesoscale (radius between 2-10 km) and mesoscale (up to 80 km) structures. Second, we investigate the dynamical or thermodynamical signature that these eddies may imprint at the surface. On average, these eddies do not cause significant variations in either the temperature of the mixed layer or the melting of sea ice. However, we estimate that subsurface eddies induce a dynamic height anomaly of the order of a few centimetres, leading to a surface vorticity anomaly of O(10^{-5} - 10^{-4}) s^{-1}, suggesting that they may be a significant local forcing for the sea ice momentum balance. Our results suggest that there is no link between the sea ice evolution and the energy level associated with the presence of subsurface eddies. It suggests that once formed, these structures may evolve at depth independently of the presence of sea ice. 

How to cite: Cassianides, A., Lique, C., Treguier, A. M., Meneghello, G., and Demarez, C.: Interplay between subsurface eddies and sea ice over the Arctic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9569, 2022.

EGU22-9777 | Presentations | OS1.6

(Sub-)mesoscale Dynamics in the Arctic and its Impact on the Flux of Nutrients and Carbon: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition 

Alejandra Quintanilla Zurita, Benjamin Rabe, and Ivan Kuznetsov

In this work, we will show the main ideas for studying how the (sub-)mesoscale processes impact the flux of nutrients and dissolved inorganic and organic carbon (DIC/DOC) in the upper layers of the central Arctic Ocean. These fluxes are essential since they are one of the primary mechanisms to connect the deeper layers of the ocean with the upper part: nutrients stored deeper can go to the surface mixed-layer and be used for primary production. On the other side, the Arctic Ocean is considered a carbon sink and contributes to the biological pump. For doing this, we are using the high-resolution numerical model FESOM-C to assimilate the hydrographic observations from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019-2020) to describe the (sub-)mesoscale dynamics (eddies, fronts). We will make use of the OMEGA equation to disentangle the vertical fluxes due to diabatic and adiabatic processes in the model output. Finally, we will analyse those results with in-situ observations of nutrients and DIC/DOC to estimate associated mass fluxes.

How to cite: Quintanilla Zurita, A., Rabe, B., and Kuznetsov, I.: (Sub-)mesoscale Dynamics in the Arctic and its Impact on the Flux of Nutrients and Carbon: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9777, 2022.

EGU22-9899 | Presentations | OS1.6 | Highlight

Changes in Arctic Halocline Waters along the East Siberian Slope and in the Makarov Basin from 2007 to 2020 

Cécilia Bertosio, Christine Provost, Marylou Athanase, Nathalie Sennéchael, Gilles Garric, Jean-Michel Lellouche, Joo-Hong Kim, Kyoung-Ho Cho, and Taewook Park

The Makarov Basin halocline receives contributions from diverse water masses of Atlantic, Pacific, and East Siberian Sea origin. Changes in surface circulation (e.g., in the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre) have been documented since the 2000s, while the upper ocean column in the Makarov Basin has received little attention. The evolution of the upper and lower halocline in the Makarov Basin and along the East Siberian Sea slope was examined combining drifting platforms observations, shipborne hydrographic data, and modelled fields from a global operational physical model.

In 2015, the upper halocline in the Makarov Basin was warmer, fresher, and thicker compared to 2008 and 2017, likely resulting from the particularly westward extension of the Beaufort Gyre that year. From 2012-onwards, cold Atlantic-derived lower halocline waters, previously restricted to the Lomonosov Ridge area, progressed eastward along the East Siberian slope, with a sharp shift from 155 to 170°E above the 1000 m isobath in winter 2011-2012, followed by a progressive eastward motion after winter 2015-2016 and reached the western Chukchi Sea in 2017. In parallel, an active mixing between upwelled Atlantic water and shelf water along the slope, formed dense warm water which also supplied the Makarov Basin lower halocline.

The progressive weakening of the halocline, together with shallower Atlantic Waters, is emblematic of a new Arctic Ocean regime that started in the early 2000s in the Eurasian Basin. Our results suggest that this new Arctic regime now may extend toward the Amerasian Basin.



How to cite: Bertosio, C., Provost, C., Athanase, M., Sennéchael, N., Garric, G., Lellouche, J.-M., Kim, J.-H., Cho, K.-H., and Park, T.: Changes in Arctic Halocline Waters along the East Siberian Slope and in the Makarov Basin from 2007 to 2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9899, 2022.

EGU22-10044 | Presentations | OS1.6

Sea ice import affects Beaufort Gyre freshwater adjustment 

Sam Cornish, Morven Muilwijk, Jeffery Scott, Juliana Marson, Paul Myers, Wenhao Zhang, Qiang Wang, Yavor Kostov, and Helen Johnson

The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre is a wind-driven reservoir of relatively fresh seawater, situated beneath time-mean anticyclonic atmospheric circulation, and is covered by mobile pack ice for most of the year. Liquid freshwater accumulation in and expulsion from this gyre is of critical interest to the climate modelling community, due to its potential to affect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In this presentation, we investigate the hypothesis that wind-driven sea ice import to/export from the BG region influences the freshwater content of the gyre and its variability. To test this hypothesis, we use the results of a coordinated climate response function (CRF) experiment with four ice-ocean models, in combination with targeted experiments using a regional setup of the MITgcm, in which we apply angular changes to the wind field. Our results show that, via an effect on the net thermodynamic growth rate, anomalies in sea ice import into the BG affect liquid freshwater adjustment. Specifically, increased ice import increases freshwater retention in the gyre, whereas ice export decreases freshwater in the gyre. Our results demonstrate that uncertainty in the cross-isobaric angle of surface winds, and in the dynamic sea ice response to these winds, has important implications for ice thermodynamics and freshwater. This mechanism may explain some of the observed inter-model spread in simulations of Beaufort Gyre freshwater and its adjustment in response to wind forcing.

How to cite: Cornish, S., Muilwijk, M., Scott, J., Marson, J., Myers, P., Zhang, W., Wang, Q., Kostov, Y., and Johnson, H.: Sea ice import affects Beaufort Gyre freshwater adjustment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10044, 2022.

One of the fastest changing environments of the Arctic is the Barents Sea (BS), located north of Norway between Svalbard, Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlja. Although covering only about 10% of the Arctic Ocean area, the BS is of Arctic-wide importance,  as the warm water advected from the North Atlantic cause massive heat fluxes in the atmosphere and sea ice melt, ultimately driving major water mass modifications relevant for the Arctic Ocean circulation  downstream.

We focus on the question whether the observed retreat in sea-ice extent in the BS over the past four decades has enhanced the inflow of warm Atlantic water (AW) into the BS via an ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere feedback contributing to Arctic Amplification, as follows. We start by presenting evidence that the retreating winter sea-ice cover of the Barents Sea has been associated with an increase in ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux that can be observed in a strong rise in near surface air temperature - spatially coinciding with the regions of strong sea-ice retreat. Furthermore, the rising air temperature and the associated convective processes in the atmosphere create a local low sea level pressure (SLP) system over the northern BS that results in additional westerly winds in the vicinity of the Barents Sea Opening (BSO), where the warm and saline AW enters the BS. In case these additional winds enhance the AW inflow into the BS a positive feedback is likely as more heat is available for melting further ice, amplifiying the negative SLP anomaly.

In a set of ocean sensitivity experiments using the sea-ice and ocean model FESOM2.1, we investigate the impact of sea ice-related SLP anomalies and their associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns on volume transport through the BSO. The simulations rely on a horizontal grid resolution of approx. 4.5 km in the Arctic and Nordic Seas allowing precise modeling of the BS hydrography and circulation. The model is initially driven with a repeated normal year forcing (CORE1) to isolate the impact of the wind anomalies from high frequency atmospheric variability. After a spin-up phase, the model is perturbed by anomalous cyclones over the BS derived from long term SLP differences in reanalysis datasets associated with the observed sea-ice retreat. The results point indeed to a slight increase in net volume transport into the BS across the BSO. This increase, however, is not caused by an increase in the inflow of AW, but rather a decrease of the outflow of modified AW recirculating back towards Fram Strait. In terms of the feedback, our results indicate that the BS AW inflow is not sensitive to cyclonic wind anomalies caused by the sea-ice retreat. The additional volume and heat transport in the modified AW range may not be sufficient to provide enough heat to melt further sea-ice and hence likely does not close the proposed feedback mechanism in the BS.

How to cite: Heukamp, F. and Kanzow, T.: Investigations on the coupling of the Barents Sea sea-ice retreat on the Atlantic Water inflow via an ocean-ice-wind feedback in the context of Arctic Amplification, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10191, 2022.

EGU22-10689 | Presentations | OS1.6

Air-Sea, Ice-Sea, and Effective Wind Forcing of the Beaufort Gyre 

Elizabeth Webb, David Straub, Bruno Tremblay, and Louis- Philippe Nadeau

Surface heat and momentum fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are mitigated by sea ice cover, resulting in an effective net forcing that can be very different in character from the wind stress alone. The effective stress is often expressed as a weighted sum of air-sea and ice-sea stresses. This is appropriate for levitating ice. Allowing instead for floating ice, one can rewrite the effective forcing in a way that makes no explicit mention of the ice-ocean stress. Instead, the net forcing becomes a linear sum of air-sea and internal ice stresses. These differences are explored in the context of the Beaufort Gyre. Previous studies have introduced the ice-ocean governor as a regulating mechanism for the gyre, and in this limit, the ice-ocean stress is assumed to vanish. For floating ice, the governor limit can be thought of instead as a balance between the wind stress and the internal ice stress. Note that this balance would seem to be unlikely in that the internal stress is associated with small-scale linear kinetic features, which are very different in character from the mesoscale and synoptic features that determine the wind stress. High-resolution ECCO data will be used to examine the instantaneous and time-averaged spatial structure of the various terms that drive the Beaufort Gyre. Future work will also examine the air-sea-ice interface in different wind and ice regimes, as well as the role of eddy fluxes in the gyre dynamics. 

How to cite: Webb, E., Straub, D., Tremblay, B., and Nadeau, L.-P.: Air-Sea, Ice-Sea, and Effective Wind Forcing of the Beaufort Gyre, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10689, 2022.

EGU22-11202 | Presentations | OS1.6

Upper Arctic Ocean hydrography during the year-round MOSAiC expedition in the context of historical observations 

Myriel Vredenborg, Benjamin Rabe, Sandra Tippenhauer, and Kirstin Schulz and the Team MOSAiC OCEAN

The Arctic Ocean is characterized by complex processes coupling the atmosphere, cryosphere, ocean and land and undergoes remarkable environmental changes due to global warming. To better understand this system of unique physical, biogeochemical and ecosystem processes and their recent changes, the year-round ice drift experiment Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was conducted from autumn 2019 to autumn 2020.

In this study we analyse temperature and salinity measurements of the upper Arctic Ocean taken during MOSAiC with different devices, i.e. on an ice-tethered profiler, a microstructure profiler and water sampler rosettes operated from the ship as well as through an ice hole on the ice floe. Combining all these measurements provides us an exceptional data resolution along the MOSAiC track. Moreover, we compare these observations with a comprehensive dataset of historical hydrographic data from the region.

Along the MOSAiC track we find signatures of a convective lower halocline (Fram Strait branch), as well as advective-convective lower halocline (Barents Sea branch). We see pronounced changes in the salinity and temperature of the lower halocline in comparison to the historical data, in particular, at the beginning of the drift. Furthermore, we show polar mixed-layer and upper halocline conditions in relation to seasonality and local surface conditions. We put the warm Atlantic Water temperature in the context of historical observations and investigate indications for the presence of Pacific Water.

How to cite: Vredenborg, M., Rabe, B., Tippenhauer, S., and Schulz, K. and the Team MOSAiC OCEAN: Upper Arctic Ocean hydrography during the year-round MOSAiC expedition in the context of historical observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11202, 2022.

EGU22-11472 | Presentations | OS1.6

Structure and seasonal variability of the Arctic Boundary Current north of Severnaya Zemlya 

Eugenio Ruiz-Castillo, Markus Janout, Torsten Kanzow, Jens Hoelmann, Kirstin Schulz, and Vladimir Ivanov

We assessed the spatial and temporal variability of the Arctic Boundary Current (ABC) using a high-resolution array of 7 oceanographic moorings, deployed across the Eurasian continental slope north of Severnaya Zemlya in 2015-2018. In particular, we quantified transports and individual water masses based on temperature and salinity recorders and current profilers. The highest velocities (>0.30 ms-1) of the ABC occurred at the upper continental slope and decreased offshore to below 0.03 ms-1 in the deep basin. The ABC shows strong seasonal variability with velocities two times higher in winter than in summer. Compared to the upstream conditions north of Svalbard, the water mass distribution changed significantly within 20 km from the shelf edge due to mixing with- and intrusion of shelf waters. Further offshore, Atlantic Waters remained largely unmodified. The ABC transported 4.2±0.1 Sv across the region with 63-71% of the volume transport constrained within 30-40 km of the shelf edge. Water mass transport was 0.52±0.13, 0.9±0.27, 0.9±0.33 and 0.9±0.35 Sv for Atlantic Waters (AW), Dense Atlantic Water (DAW), Barents Sea Branch Water (BSBW) and Transformed Atlantic Water (TAW), respectively. A seasonality in TAW and BSBW transport was linked with temperature changes, where maximum transports coincided with minimum temperatures. Our results highlight the importance of the Barents Sea for the ABC along the Siberian slopes, and indicate that a continuing Barents Sea warming would directly translate to reductions in the TAW and BSBW cooling effect and thus lead to warmer oceanic conditions in the ABC pathway. 

How to cite: Ruiz-Castillo, E., Janout, M., Kanzow, T., Hoelmann, J., Schulz, K., and Ivanov, V.: Structure and seasonal variability of the Arctic Boundary Current north of Severnaya Zemlya, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11472, 2022.

EGU22-11518 | Presentations | OS1.6

Differential summer melt rates of ridges, first- and second-year ice in the central Arctic Ocean during the MOSAiC expedition 

Evgenii Salganik, Benjamin Lange, Christian Katlein, Ilkka Matero, Julia Regnery, Igor Sheikin, Philipp Anhaus, Knut Høyland, and Mats Granskog

During the melt season, sea ice melts from the surface and bottom. The melt rates substantially vary for sea ice ridges and undeformed first- and second-year ice. Ridges generally melt faster than undeformed ice, while the melt of ridge keels is often accompanied by further summer growth of their consolidated layer. This summer consolidation is related to refreezing of less saline meltwater, originating from snowmelt and ridge keel melt. We examine the spatial variability of ice melt for different types of ice from in situ drilling, coring, and from multibeam sonar scans of remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV). Seven ROV scans, performed from 24 June 2020 to 28 July 2020 during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition were analyzed. The area investigated by the ROV (400 by 200 m) consisted of several ice ridges, surrounded by first- and second-year ice. Seven ice drilling transects were additionally performed to validate ROV measurements. The maximum keel depth of the ridge investigated by ice drilling was 6.5 m. We show a substantial difference in melt rates of first-year ice, second-year ice, and sea ice ridge keels. We also show how ridge keels decay depending on keel depth, width, steepness, and orientation relative to the ice drift direction. These results are important for quantifying ocean heat fluxes for different types of ice during advanced melt, and for estimation of the ridge contribution to the total ice mass and summer meltwater balances of the Arctic Ocean.

How to cite: Salganik, E., Lange, B., Katlein, C., Matero, I., Regnery, J., Sheikin, I., Anhaus, P., Høyland, K., and Granskog, M.: Differential summer melt rates of ridges, first- and second-year ice in the central Arctic Ocean during the MOSAiC expedition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11518, 2022.

In September-October 2021 during NABOS-2021 expedition specialized shipborne ice observations were carried following methodological principles developed in AARI. The overall research area for the cruise included Arctic basin area toward north of Laptev and East Siberian seas within 73-82°N 125°E-170°W. Ice conditions were generalized and analyzed along the oceanographic cross-sections in accordance with the ice conditions homogeneousness. Hard ice conditions were unforeseen during the planning period, which made adjustments to the initial expedition plans and several minor northern cross-sections were canceled.

The route fragment with the hardest ice conditions was observed within 78-82°N 160°-172°E. Sea ice concentration was 10 tenths totally, concentration of residual ice varied from 5-7 to 10 tenths directly on the route of the vesse. Prevailing forms of the sea ice were big (500m-2000m) and often vast (2000-10000m) floes with strongly smoothed hummock formations covered with snow 10-15 cm high. The thickness of the residual ice on the route was mainly 50-70 cm (17%), often over 100 cm (6%), in hummocks over 2-3 meters. The water area between the ice fields was captured by young ice, grey and grey-white (3-4 up to 9 tenths).

Several areas were crossed by vessel twice in a time difference of one month. Sea ice formation process during the month long was fixed and analyzed by changes in distribution of ice with different stages of development. In general, 66% of the ship track within the ice during expedition had sea ice concentration of 10 tenths, the residual ice on the route accounted for 26%, young ice was observed for 38%, nilas and new ice 36%.The residual ice thickness varied from 30-50 cm to 160 cm and above, in some cases (hummock formations) over 300 cm. Ice thickness of 30-50 and 50-70 cm accounts for 9% each, thicknesses over 70 cm account for 8% of all thickness ranges observed throughout the entire route of the vessel in the ice.

Key words: shipborne observations, ice conditions of navigation, ice thickness, ice concentration, stage of development of ice.

How to cite: Timofeeva, A.: Navigation in the ice conditions in Arctic basin in September-October 2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13087, 2022.

EGU22-13088 | Presentations | OS1.6

An effect of mesoscale and submesoscale eddies on sea ice processes in the Marginal Ice Zone 

Sergey Pryakhin, Igor Bashmachnikov, Igor Kozlov, and Claudia Wekerle

The early study of eddy properties in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) and of their influence on the ice regime in the Greenland Sea, based on the results of the MIZEX project (Johannessen et al., 1987), revealed that eddies may capture and transport a significant amount of ice, enhancing its ablation. Estimates suggest that eddies may provoke the ice edge retreat as fast as 1–2 km per day during summer. However, up to present, the mesoscale dynamics in polar regions, as well as the effect of eddies on ice edge ablation are poorly understood. This is due to sparse in situ observations and to an insufficient spatial resolution of numerical models, typically not resolving the mesoscale processes due to a relatively small Rossby deformation radius in polar regions.
This study aims to better understand the ways eddies affect the sea ice edge and their relative effect on the MIZ position in the East Greenland Current (75-78°N and 20°W-10°E). Pronounced local water temperature gradients and the importance of thermodynamics ablation in the ice dynamics in the Greenland Sea, derived in previous studies (Selyuzhenok et al., 2020), suggest a possibly strong eddy effect on the MIZ. This effect was noted in several case studies, when eddies were observed to trap and transport a significant amount of ice away from the MIZ (see, for example, von Appen et al., 2018). 
We base our results on the output of the very high-resolution Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM), tested against the remote sensing observations from ENVISAT. We investigate only the warm period of 2007, when ice is actively melting and during which period a data on eddies, detected in SAR data, is available. Comparison of the location and dynamics of the ice edge in FESOM, AMSR-E-based ice concentration products and ENVISAT ASAR data, as well as of eddy properties in FESOM and in SAR satellite images, suggest that the model is in good agreement with the observations and can be used to study mesoscale dynamics of the MIZ in the region.
The analysis showed that eddies affect the ice edge position through an enhanced horizontal exchange across the MIZ. The sea-ice is trapped by eddies and transported east, in the area of a warmer water, while the warmer water is entrained by eddies and transported west, towards the MIZ. Both effects contribute to the accelerated sea ice melt and destruction. The highest temperature gradients, as well as the largest concentration of eddies in the MIZ were detected in the northern part of the study area, adjacent to the Fram Strait. Here eddies were found to play a particular important role in the MIZ dynamics.
This research was financed by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) project N 21-17-00278.

How to cite: Pryakhin, S., Bashmachnikov, I., Kozlov, I., and Wekerle, C.: An effect of mesoscale and submesoscale eddies on sea ice processes in the Marginal Ice Zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13088, 2022.

EGU22-230 | Presentations | NP2.4

Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere 

Melanie Kobras, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, and Valerio Lucarini

Eddy saturation describes the nonlinear mechanism in geophysical flows whereby, when average conditions are considered, direct forcing of the zonal flow increases the eddy kinetic energy, while the energy associated with the zonal flow does not increase. We present a minimal baroclinic model that exhibits complete eddy saturation. Starting from Phillips’ classical quasi-geostrophic two-level model on the beta channel of the mid-latitudes, we derive a reduced order model comprising of six ordinary differential equations including parameterised eddies. This model features two physically realisable steady state solutions, one a purely zonal flow and one where, additionally, finite eddy motions are present. As the baroclinic forcing in the form of diabatic heating is increased, the zonal solution loses stability and the eddy solution becomes attracting. After this bifurcation, the zonal components of the solution are independent of the baroclinic forcing, and the excess of heat in the low latitudes is efficiently transported northwards by finite eddies, in the spirit of baroclinic adjustment.

How to cite: Kobras, M., Ambaum, M. H. P., and Lucarini, V.: Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-230, 2022.

EGU22-269 | Presentations | NP2.4

Nonlinear Multiscale Modelling of Layering in Turbulent Stratified Fluids 

Paul Pruzina, David Hughes, and Samuel Pegler

One of the most fascinating, and surprising, aspects of stratified turbulence is the spontaneous formation of density staircases, consisting of layers with nearly constant density, separated by interfaces with large density gradients. Within a staircase, there are two key lengthscales: the layer depth, and the interface thickness. Density staircases appear in regions of the ocean where the overall stratification is stable, and can be induced experimentally by stirring a fluid with a stable salt gradient. Staircases also appear as a result of double diffusive convection, in both oceanic and astrophysical contexts. Turbulent transport through staircases is enhanced compared to non-layered regions, so understanding their dynamics is crucial for modelling salt and heat transport.

Progress has been made numerically and experimentally, but the fundamental aspects of the problem are not yet fully understood. One leading theory is the Phillips Effect: layering occurs due to the dependence of the turbulent density flux on the density gradient. If the flux is a decreasing function of the gradient for a finite range of gradients, then negative diffusion causes perturbations to grow into systems of layers and interfaces.

An important extension of the Phillips theory is by Balmforth, Llewellyn-Smith and Young [J. Fluid Mech., 335:329-358, 1998], who developed a k-ε style model of stirred stratified flow in terms of horizontally averaged energy and buoyancy fields. These fields obey turbulent diffusion equations, with fluxes depending on a mixing length. The parameterisation of this lengthscale is key to the model, as it must pick out both layer and interface scales. This phenomonological model parameterises terms based on dimensional arguments, and neglects diffusion for simplicity. This model produces clear density staircases, which undergo mergers where two interfaces combine to form one. Layers take up the interior of the domain, while edge regions on either side expand inwards at a rate of t1/2 , removing layers from the outside in. Eventually the edge regions fill the entire domain, so the long time behaviour of the layers cannot be seen.

We present a similar model for stirred stratified layering derived directly from the Boussinesq equations, including molecular and viscous diffusion, so the model can be tailored to specific conditions to make realistic predictions. We show that the layered  region can evolve indefinitely through mergers, by taking fixed-buoyancy boundary conditions to prevent the expansion of the edge regions. We investigate the effects of diffusion on layer formation and evolution, finding that it acts to stabilise the system, both by decreasing the range of buoyancy gradients that are susceptible to the layering instability, and by decreasing the growth rates of perturbations. The lengthscale of the instability also increases, with larger viscosities and diffusivities producing deeper layers with less sharp interfaces.

This model can be used as a more general framework for layering phenomena. Extending to equations for energy, temperature and salinity can model double diffusive layering. More general parameterisations for the fluxes allow it to be adapted to other settings, including potential vorticity staircases in atmospheres and E×B staircases in plasmas.

How to cite: Pruzina, P., Hughes, D., and Pegler, S.: Nonlinear Multiscale Modelling of Layering in Turbulent Stratified Fluids, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-269, 2022.

EGU22-1171 | Presentations | NP2.4

Decomposing the Dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using Unstable Periodic Orbits: Averages, Transitions, and Quasi-Invariant Sets 

Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, and Andrey Gritsun

Unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) are a valuable tool for studying chaotic dynamical systems, as they allow one to distill their dynamical structure. We consider here the Lorenz 1963 model with the classic parameters' value. We investigate how a chaotic orbit can be approximated using a complete set of UPOs up to symbolic dynamics' period 14. At each instant, we rank the UPOs according to their proximity to the position of the orbit in the phase space. We study this process from two different perspectives. First, we find that longer period UPOs overwhelmingly provide the best local approximation to the trajectory. Second, we construct a finite-state Markov chain by studying the scattering of the orbit between the neighbourhood of the various UPOs. Each UPO and its neighbourhood are taken as a possible state of the system. Through the analysis of the subdominant eigenvectors of the corresponding stochastic matrix we provide a different interpretation of the mixing processes occurring in the system by taking advantage of the concept of quasi-invariant sets.

How to cite: Maiocchi, C. C., Lucarini, V., and Gritsun, A.: Decomposing the Dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using Unstable Periodic Orbits: Averages, Transitions, and Quasi-Invariant Sets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1171, 2022.

On a synoptic time scale, the northern mid-latitudes weather is dominated by the influence of the eddy-driven jet stream and its variability. The usually zonal jet can become mostly meridional during so-called blocking events, increasing the persistence of cyclonic and anticyclonic structures and therefore triggering extremes of temperature or precipitations. During those events, the jet takes unusual latitudinal positions, either northerly or southerly of its mean position. Previous research proposed theoretically derived 1D models of the jet stream to represent the dynamics of such events. Here, we take a data-driven approach using ERA5 reanalysis data over the period 1979-2019 to investigate the variability of the eddy-driven jet latitudinal position and wind speed variability. We show that shifts of the jet latitudinal position occur on a daily time scale and are preceded by a strong decrease of the jet zonal wind speed 2-3 days prior to the shift. We also show that the dynamics of the jet zonal wind speed can be modelled by a non-linear oscillator with stochastic perturbations. We combine those two results to propose a simple 1D model capable of representing the statistics and dynamics of blocking events of the eddy-driven jet stream. The model is based on two stochastic coupled non-linear lattices representing the jet latitudinal position and zonal wind speed. Our model is able to reproduce temporal and spatial characteristics of the jet and we highlight a potential link between the propagation of solitary waves along the jet and the occurrence of blocking events.

How to cite: Noyelle, R., Faranda, D., and Yiou, P.: Modeling the Northern eddy-driven jet stream position and wind speed variability with stochastic coupled non-linear lattices, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1250, 2022.

We run a moist shallow water model with stochastic mesoscale forcing, to simulate the effects of mesoscale forcing on exciting large-scale flow structures. In previous work, we showed how the mesoscale forcing excites a classical -5/3 eddy kinetic energy upscale cascade to planetary scales where the linear tropical modes such as Rossby, Yanai, Intertial Gravity, and Kelvin waves form. In this work, we focus on the arising zonal mean flow.

We present results from ensembles of a few hundred simulations indicating multiple-equilibria in the tropical flow, once latent heat release passes a certain threshold in the first 1000 days. Runs up to one hundred thousand days confirm these results and show abrupt transitions in the dry and moist shallow-water turbulence lasting several thousand days. We will discuss the transient nature of the mean flow and suggest a possible new mechanism for the transition of the wind at the equator to super-rotation in a moist environment.

How to cite: Schröttle, J. and Harnik, N.: Spontaneous transitions between sub- and superrotation in dry and moist shallow-water turbulence on the sphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1307, 2022.

EGU22-1514 | Presentations | NP2.4

The Mid-Pleistocene Transition: A delayed response to an increasing positive feedback? 

Anne Willem Omta, John Shackleton, Mick Follows, and Peter Thomas

Glacial-interglacial cycles constitute large natural variations in Earth's climate. The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) marks a shift of the dominant periodicity of these climate cycles from ~40 to ~100 kyr. Ramping with frequency locking is a promising mechanism to explain the MPT, combining an increase in the internal period with lockings to an external forcing. We identify the strength of positive feedbacks as a key parameter to induce increases in the internal period and allow ramping with frequency locking. Using the calcifier-alkalinity model, we simulate changes in periodicity similar to the Mid-Pleistocene Transition through this mechanism. However, the periodicity shift occurs up to 10 Million years after the change in the feedback strength. This result puts into question the assumption that the cause for the MPT must have operated around the same time as the observed periodicity shift.

How to cite: Omta, A. W., Shackleton, J., Follows, M., and Thomas, P.: The Mid-Pleistocene Transition: A delayed response to an increasing positive feedback?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1514, 2022.

Heat waves result from large-scale stationary waves and have major impacts on the economy and mortality. However, the dynamical processes leading to and maintaining heat waves are still not well understood. Here we use a nonlinear stationary wave model (NSWM) to examine the role played by anomalous stationary waves and how they are forced during heat waves. We will discuss heat waves in Europe and Asia. We show that the NSWM can successfully reproduce the main features of the observed anomalous stationary waves in the upper troposphere. Our results indicate that the dynamics of heat waves are nonlinear, and transient momentum fluxes are the primary drivers of the observed anomalous stationary waves. We will also discuss the role of anomalous SSTs in influencing heat waves.

How to cite: Franzke, C. and Ma, Q.: The role of transient eddies and diabatic heating in the maintenance of heat waves: a nonlinear quasi-stationary wave perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1571, 2022.

EGU22-1988 | Presentations | NP2.4

Modelling Abrupt Transitions in Past Ocean Circulation to Constrain Future Tipping Points 

Guido Vettoretti, Markus Jochum, and Peter Ditlevsen

Recent observationally based studies indicate that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) may be approaching critical thresholds or tipping points, although the timing is uncertain. The connection between both Greenland meltwater fluxes and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on the future state of the AMOC is also uncertain. Here we investigate the role of ocean vertical mixing within the interior and surface boundary layer (the K-Profile Parameterization (KPP)) on past millennial scale climate variability in a coupled climate model. Previous studies have demonstrated a sensitivity of the period of millennial scale ice age oscillations to the KPP scheme. Here we show that small changes in the profiles of vertical mixing under ice age boundary conditions can drive the AMOC through a Hopf bifurcation and result in the appearance of millennial-scale AMOC oscillations. This has implications on whether changes in tidal energy dissipation in the coastal and deep ocean are important for modelling past climate variability. More importantly, the same changes in ocean vertical mixing can impact the stability and hysteresis behaviour of the modern AMOC under freshwater input to the North Atlantic as well as leading to abrupt transitions in AMOC strength under a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. We show how understanding the sensitivity of the AMOC to ocean vertical mixing parameterizations used in coupled Earth System models may be important for constraining future climate tipping points.

How to cite: Vettoretti, G., Jochum, M., and Ditlevsen, P.: Modelling Abrupt Transitions in Past Ocean Circulation to Constrain Future Tipping Points, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1988, 2022.

The directional dependencies of different climate indices are explored using the Liang-Kleeman information flow in order to disentangle the influence of certain regions over the globe on the development of low-frequency variability of others. Seven key indices (the sea-surface temperature in El-Niño 3.4 region, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the North Pacific America pattern, the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacifid Decadal Oscillation, the Tropical North Atlantic index), together with three local time series located in Western Europe (Belgium), are selected. The analysis is performed on time scales from a month to 5 years by using a sliding window as filtering procedure.

A few key new results on the remote influence emerge: (i) The Arctic Oscillation plays a key role at short time (monthly) scales on the dynamics of the North Pacific and North Atlantic; (ii) the North Atlantic Oscillation is playing a global role at long time scales (several years); (iii) the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is indeed slaved to other influences; (iv) the local observables over Western Europe influence the variability on the ocean basins on long time scales. These results further illustrate the power of the Liang-Kleeman information flow in disentangling the dynamical dependencies.

How to cite: Vannitsem, S. and Liang, X. S.: Dynamical dependencies at monthly and interannual time scales in the Climate system: Study of the North Pacific and Atlantic regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1994, 2022.

The rise of the global sea-level due to the melting of the Greenland ice-sheet poses one of the biggest threats to human society in the 21st century (IPCC, 2021). The Greenland ice sheet has been hypothesized to exhibit multiple stable states with tipping point behavior when crossing specific thresholds of the global mean temperature (Robinson et al., 2012). In regards to the desultory efforts to reduce the global emissions it becomes more and more unlikely to reach the 1.5°C goal by the end of the century and a crossing of the tipping threshold for the Greenland ice sheet becomes inevitable. First early-warning signals of a possible transition have already been found (Boers&Rypdal, 2021). However, it is known that a short-term overshooting of a critical threshold is possible without prompting a change of the system state (Ritchie et al., 2021). Using a complex ice sheet model, we investigate the effects of different carbon-capture scenarios after crossing the tipping threshold for the Greenland ice sheet. We are able to sketch a stability diagram for a number of emission scenarios and show that temporarily overshooting the temperature threshold for Greenland might be quasi-irreversible for some of the emission scenarios.

IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-
Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M.
Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press. In Press.

Robinson, A., Calov, R. & Ganopolski, A. Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature Clim Change 2, 429–432 (2012).

Boers, N. & Rypdal, M. Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point. PNAS 118, (2021).

Ritchie, P. D. L., Clarke, J. J., Cox, P. M. & Huntingford, C. Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate. Nature 592, 517–523 (2021).

How to cite: Bochow, N.: Overshooting the tipping point threshold for the Greenland ice-sheet using a complex ice-sheet model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2353, 2022.

EGU22-2396 | Presentations | NP2.4

Cascade of abrupt transitions in past climates 

Denis-Didier Rousseau, Valerio Lucarini, Witold Bagniewski, and Michael Ghil

The Earth’s climate has experienced numerous abrupt and critical transitions during its long history. Such transitions are evidenced in precise, high-resolution records at different timescales. This type of evidence suggests the possibility of identifying a hierarchy of past critical events, which would yield a more complex perspective on climatic history of the than the classical saddle-node two-dimension representation of tipping points. Such a context allows defining a tipping, or dynamical, landscape (Lucarini and Bódai, 2020), similar to the epigenetic landscape of Waddington (1957).

To illustrate a richer structure of critical transitions, we have analyzed 3 key high-resolution datasets covering the past 66 Ma and provided evidences of abrupt transitions detected with the augmented Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and a recurrence analysis (Bagniewski et al., 2021). These time series are the CENOGRID benthic d18O and d13C (Westerhold et al., 2020), the U1308 benthic d18O, d13C and the d18bulk carbonate (Hodell and Channell, 2016), and the NGRIP d18O (Rasmussen et al., 2014) records. The aim was to examine objectively the observed visual evidence of abrupt transitions and to identify among them the key thresholds indicating regime changes that differentiate among major clusters of variability. This identification is followed by establishing a hierarchy in the observed thresholds organized through a domino-like cascade of abrupt transitions that shaped the Earth’s climate system over the past 66 Ma.

This study is supported by the H2020-funded Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES) project.

References

Bagniewski, W., Ghil, M., and Rousseau, D. D.: Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records, Chaos, 31, https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0062543, 2021.

Hodell, D. A. and Channell, J. E. T.: Mode transitions in Northern Hemisphere glaciation: co-evolution of millennial and orbital variability in Quaternary climate, Clim. Past, 12, 1805–1828, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1805-2016, 2016.

Lucarini, V. and Bódai, T.: Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions, Nonlinearity, 33, R59–R92, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/ab86cc, 2020.

Rasmussen, S. O., Bigler, M., Blockley, S. P., et al.: A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy, Quat. Sci. Rev., 106, 14–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.007, 2014.

Waddington, C. H.: The strategy of the genes., Allen & Unwin., London, 1957.

Westerhold, T., Marwan, N., Drury, A. J., et al.: An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years, Science, 369, 1383-+, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba6853, 2020.

How to cite: Rousseau, D.-D., Lucarini, V., Bagniewski, W., and Ghil, M.: Cascade of abrupt transitions in past climates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2396, 2022.

EGU22-2689 | Presentations | NP2.4

Data-driven estimation of the committor function for an idealised AMOC model 

Valérian Jacques-Dumas, Henk Dijkstra, and René van Westen

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports warm, saline water towards the northern North Atlantic, contributing substantially to the meridional heat transport in the climate system. Measurements of the Atlantic freshwater divergence show that it may be in a bistable state and hence subject to collapsing under anthropogenic forcing. We aim at computing the probability of such a transition. We focus on timescales of the century and on temporary collapses of the AMOC. Using simulated data from an idealized stochastic AMOC model, where forcing and white noise are applied via a surface freshwater flux, we compute the transition probabilities versus noise and forcing amplitudes.

Such transitions are very rare and simulating long-enough trajectories in order to gather sufficient statistics is too expensive. Conversely, rare-events algorithms like TAMS (Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Sampling) encourage the transition without changing the statistics. In TAMS, N trajectories are simulated and evaluated with a score function; the poorest-performing trajectories are discarded, and the best ones are re-simulated.

The optimal score function is the committor function, defined as the probability that a trajectory reaches a zone A of the phase space before another zone B. Its exact computation is in general difficult and time-consuming. In this presentation, we compare data-driven methods to estimate the committor. Firstly, the Analogues Markov Chain method computes it from the transition matrix of a long re-simulated trajectory. The K-Nearest Neighbours method relies on an existing pool of states where the committor function is already known to estimate it everywhere. Finally, the Dynamical Modes Decomposition method is based on a Galerkin approximation of the Koopman operator. The latter is the most efficient one for the AMOC model when using adaptive dimensionality reduction of the phase space.

How to cite: Jacques-Dumas, V., Dijkstra, H., and van Westen, R.: Data-driven estimation of the committor function for an idealised AMOC model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2689, 2022.

EGU22-2784 | Presentations | NP2.4

Mechanisms behind climate oscillations in last glacial maximum simulations 

Yvan Romé, Ruza Ivanovic, and Lauren Gregoire

Millennial-scale variability has been extensively observed across the last glacial period records (115 to 12 thousand years ago) but reproducing it on general circulation models remains a challenge. In recent years, a growing number of climate models have reported simulations with oscillating behaviours comparable to typical abrupt climate changes, although often relying on unrealistic forcing fields and/or boundary conditions. This may become an issue when trying to review the mechanisms at stake because of glacial climates’ sensitivity to these parameters, notably ice sheets geometry and greenhouse gases concentration.

With the addition of snapshots of the early last deglaciation meltwater history over a last glacial maximum (~21 thousand years ago) equilibrium simulation, we obtained different regimes of climate variability, including oscillations that provides the perfect framework for studying abrupt climate changes dynamics in a glacial background. The oscillations consist of shifts between cold modes with a weak to almost collapsed Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC) and warmer and stronger AMOC modes, with large reorganisation of the deep-water formation sites, surface ocean and atmospheric circulations. The phenomenon has a periodicity of roughly every 1500 years and can be linked to changes of about 10°C in Greenland. This new set of simulation suggests an intricate large-scale coupling between ice, ocean, and atmosphere in the North Atlantic when meltwater is discharged to the North Atlantic.

Most attempts at theorising millennial-scale variability have involved vast transfers of salt between the subtropical and subpolar gyres, often referred to as the salt oscillator mechanism, that in turn controlled the intensity of the north Atlantic current. We believe that the salt oscillator is in fact part of a larger harmonic motion spanning through all components of the climate system and that can enter into resonance under the specific boundary conditions and/or forcing. Illustrated by the mapping of the main salinity and heat fluxes on the oscillating simulations, we propose a new interpretation of the salt oscillator that includes the stochastic resonance phenomenon as well as the effect of meltwater forcing.

How to cite: Romé, Y., Ivanovic, R., and Gregoire, L.: Mechanisms behind climate oscillations in last glacial maximum simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2784, 2022.

EGU22-3973 | Presentations | NP2.4

A minimal SDE model of D-O events with multiplicative noise 

Kolja Kypke and Peter Ditlevsen

The abrupt transitions in the last glacial period between cold stadial and warmer interstadial climate states found in Greenlandic ice-core records, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, are a rich topic of study not only due to their potential similarities in time scales and mechanisms to present and near-future climate transitions but also since their underlying physical mechanisms are not fully understood. The dynamics of the climate can be described by a Langevin equation dx = −∂U/∂x dt + η(t) where the potential U(x) has a bimodal distribution to represent the stable stadial and interstadial states and the stochastic process η(t) is usually realized as a Gaussian white noise process that causes jumps between these two states. From the steady-state of the Fokker-Planck equation associated with this Langevin equation, the potential U(x) can be determined from the probability distribution of the ice-core record time series. Thus this minimal model simulates time series with statistics similar to those of the original ice-core record. Novel to this study, we introduce a multiplicative noise term η(t, x) to represent the different statistical properties of the noise in the stadial and interstadial periods. The difference between the Itô and the Stratonovich integration of the Langevin equation with multiplicative noise results in slight differences in the attribution of the drift and diffusion terms for a transformed variable. This is illustrated by performing both.

How to cite: Kypke, K. and Ditlevsen, P.: A minimal SDE model of D-O events with multiplicative noise, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3973, 2022.

Several climate sub-systems are believed to be at risk of undergoing abrupt, irreversible changes as a tipping point (TP) in Greenhouse gas concentrations is reached. Since the current generation of climate models is likely not accurate enough to reliably predict TPs, a hope is to anticipate them from observations via early-warning signals (EWS). EWS have been designed to identify generic changes in variability that occur before a well-defined TP is crossed.

Such well-defined, singular TPs are believed to arise from a single dominant positive feedback that destabilizes the system. However, one may ask whether the large number of spatio-temporal scales in the climate system, and associated second-order feedbacks, could not lead to a variety of more subtle, but discontinuous reorganizations of the spatial climate pattern before the eventual catastrophic tipping. Such intermediate TPs could hinder predictability and mask EWS.

We performed simulations with a global ocean model that shows a TP of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) due to freshening of the surface waters resulting from increased ice melt. Using a large ensemble of equilibrium simulations, we map out the stability landscape of the ocean circulation in high detail. While in a classical hysteresis experiment only one regime of bistability is found, by very slow increases in forcing we observe an abundance of discontinuous, qualitative changes in the AMOC variability. These are used to initialize smaller-scale hysteresis experiments that reveal a variety of multistable regimes with at least 4 coexisting alternative attractors.

We argue that due to chaotic dynamics, non-autonomous instabilities, and complex geometries of the basins of attraction, the realized path to tipping can be highly sensitive to initial conditions and the trajectory of the control parameter. Further, we discuss the degree to which the equilibrium dynamics are reflected in the transient dynamics for different rates of forcing. The results have implications regarding the expected abruptness of TPs, as well as their predictability and the design of EWS.

How to cite: Lohmann, J.: Abundant multistability and intermediate tipping points in a global ocean model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4470, 2022.

EGU22-5197 | Presentations | NP2.4

Investigating the 'Hothouse narrative' with dynamical systems 

Victor Couplet and Michel Crucifix

The 'hothouse narrative' states that tipping cascades could lead humanity to a binary choice between a 'governed Earth' and a 'hothouse' with no midway alternative. To investigate this scenario, we construct a toy model of interacting tipping elements and ask the following questions: Given a continuous family of emission scenarios, are there discontinuities in the family of responses, as suggested by the 'hothouse narrative'? How realistic is this given knowledge provided by climate simulations and paleo-climate evidence? The relatively low complexity of our model allows us to easily run it for several thousand years and a large range of emissions scenarios, helping us highlight the fundamental role of the different time scales involved in answering our questions. On the one hand, we find that the near-linear relationship predicted by GCMs between global temperature and GHG emissions for the next century can break up at millennial time scales due to cascades involving slower tipping elements such as the ice sheets. This translates as a discontinuity in the family of responses of our model. On the other hand, we find that different emissions scenarios respecting the same carbon budget could potentially lead to different tipping cascades and thus qualitatively different outcomes.

How to cite: Couplet, V. and Crucifix, M.: Investigating the 'Hothouse narrative' with dynamical systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5197, 2022.

EGU22-5268 | Presentations | NP2.4

Transition Probabilities of Wind-driven Ocean Flows 

René van Westen and Henk Dijkstra

The quasi-geostrophic wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation in a midlatitude rectangular basin is a multi-stable system. Under time-independent forcing, the number of steady states is controlled by the Reynolds number. For a specific range of Reynolds numbers, at least two stable steady states exist. In the quasi-geostrophic model, sub-grid scale processes are usually heavily parameterised, either by deterministic or stochastic representation. In the stochastic case, noise-induced transitions between the steady states may occur.

A standard method to determine transition rates between different steady states is a Monte Carlo approach. One obtains sufficient independent realisations of the model and simply counts the number of transitions. However, this Monte Carlo approach is not well-suited for high-dimensional systems such as the quasi-geostrophic wind-driven ocean circulation. Moreover, when transition probabilities are rare, one needs long integration times or a large number of realisations.

Here we propose a new method to determine transition rates between steady states, by using Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) field theory. The stochastic dynamical system is decomposed using a Karhunen-Loéve expansion and separate problems arise for the ensemble mean state and the so-called time-dependent DO modes. Each DO mode has a specific probability density function, which represents the probability in that direction of phase space. In the case of two steady states, at least one of the DO modes has a bimodal distribution. We analyse transition probabilities using this specific DO mode, which is more efficient compared to the ordinary Monte Carlo approach. We will present the general method and show results for transition probabilities in the quasi-geostrophic wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation.

How to cite: van Westen, R. and Dijkstra, H.: Transition Probabilities of Wind-driven Ocean Flows, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5268, 2022.

EGU22-5433 | Presentations | NP2.4

Tipping points in hydrology: observed regional regime shift and System Dynamics modeling 

Valentin Wendling, Christophe Peugeot, Manuela Grippa, Laurent Kergoat, Eric Mougin, Pierre Hiernaux, Nathalie Rouché, Geremy Panthou, Jean-Louis Rajot, Caroline Pierre, Olivier Mora, Angeles Garcia-Mayor, Abdramane Ba, Emmanuel Lawin, Ibrahim Bouzou-Moussa, Jerôme Demarty, Jordi Etchanchu, Basile Hector, Sylvie Galle, and Thierry Lebel and the TipHyc Project

River runoff and climate data existing from 1950 to present time in West Africa are analyzed over a climatic gradient from the Sahel (semi-arid) to the Gulf of Guinea (humid). The region experienced a severe drought in the 70s-90s, with strong impact on the vegetation, soils and populations. We show that the hydrological regime in the Sahel has shifted: the runoff increased significantly between pre- and post-drought periods and is still increasing. In the Guinean region, instead, no shift is observed.

This suggests that a tipping point could have been passed, triggered by climate and/or land use change. In order to explore this hypothesis, we developed a System Dynamics model representing feedbacks between soil, vegetation and flow connectivity of hillslopes, channels and aquifers. Model runs were initialized in 1950 with maps of land use/land cover, and fed with observed rainfall (climate external forcing).

The modeling results accurately represent the observed evolution of the hydrological regime on the watersheds monitored since the 50s (ranging from 1 to 50000 km²). The model revealed that alternative stable states can exist for the climatic conditions of the study period. From the model runs, we showed that the drought triggered the crossing of a tipping point (rainfall threshold), which explains the regime shift. We identified domains within the watersheds where tipping occurred at small scale, leading to larger scale shifts. This result supports that tipping points exist in semi-arid systems where ecohydrology plays a major role. This approach seems well suited to identify areas of high risk of irreversible hydrological regime shifts under different climate and land-use scenarios.

How to cite: Wendling, V., Peugeot, C., Grippa, M., Kergoat, L., Mougin, E., Hiernaux, P., Rouché, N., Panthou, G., Rajot, J.-L., Pierre, C., Mora, O., Garcia-Mayor, A., Ba, A., Lawin, E., Bouzou-Moussa, I., Demarty, J., Etchanchu, J., Hector, B., Galle, S., and Lebel, T. and the TipHyc Project: Tipping points in hydrology: observed regional regime shift and System Dynamics modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5433, 2022.

EGU22-5500 | Presentations | NP2.4

Conditions for detecting early warning of tipping. 

Peter Ditlevsen

The warning of tipping to an undesired state in a complex system, such as the climate, when a control parameter slowly approaching a critical value ($\lambda(t) \rightarrow \lambda_0$) relies on detecting early warning signals (EWS) in observations of the system. The primary EWS are increase in variance, due to loss of resilience, and increased autocorrelation due to critical slow down. They are statistical in nature, which implies that the reliability and statistical significance of the detection depends on the sample size in observations and the magnitude of the change away from the base value prior to the approach to the tipping point. Thus the possibility of providing useful early warning depends on the relative magnitude of several interdependent time scales in the problem. These are (a) the time before the critical value $\lambda_c$ is reached, (b) the (inverse) rate of approach to the bifurcation point (c) The size of the time window required to detect a significant change in the EWS and finally, (d) The escape time for noise-induced transition (prior to the bifurcation). Here we investigate under which conditions early warning of tipping can be provided. 

How to cite: Ditlevsen, P.: Conditions for detecting early warning of tipping., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5500, 2022.

EGU22-5725 | Presentations | NP2.4

Arctic summer sea-ice loss will accelerate in coming decades 

Anna Poltronieri, Nils Bochow, and Martin Rypdal

Every year, the area of the Arctic sea-ice decreases in the boreal spring and summer and reaches its yearly minimum in the early autumn. The continuous satellite-based time series shows that the September area has decreased from 4.5 x 106 km2 in 1979, to 2.8 x 106 km2 in 2020. The decline has been approximately linear in global mean surface temperature, with a rate of loss of 2.7 x 106 km2 per degree C of global warming.

In the CMIP6 ensemble, however, we find that the majority of the models that reach an Arctic sea-ice free state in the SSP585 runs show an accelerated loss of sea-ice for the last degree of warming compared to the second last degree of warming, which implies an increased sensitivity of the sea-ice to temperature changes. 

Both in the observational and CMIP6 data, we find that the decline in September sea-ice area is approximately proportional to the area north of which the zonal average temperature in spring and summer is lower than a critical threshold Tc. The Arctic amplification implies that the zonally averaged temperatures increase relative to the global temperatures, and with rates increasing with latitude. Linear extrapolation of the zonally averaged temperatures predicts that, with further warming, the September sea-ice area will depend non-linearly on global temperature, the sensitivity will increase and the September sea-ice area may become less that 1 x 106 km2 for global warming between 0.5 and 1.4oC above the current temperature. 

As a result of accelerated sea-ice loss, the average evolution of the sea-ice area among the CMIP6 models before the complete loss of the summer sea-ice shows an increase in the year-to-year fluctuations in minimum ice cover in the next decade. This implies exceptional accumulation of extreme events with very low or no sea-ice at all even before the final loss of the sea-ice. Likewise, an apparent short-term recovery of the sea-ice loss might be observable due to the increasing fluctuations. 

How to cite: Poltronieri, A., Bochow, N., and Rypdal, M.: Arctic summer sea-ice loss will accelerate in coming decades, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5725, 2022.

EGU22-5928 | Presentations | NP2.4

Commitment as Lost Opportunities 

Marina Martinez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Nicola Botta, and Nuria Brede

In the context of climate change, the word "commitment" was originally used to denote how much extra warming is to be expected eventually given a certain fixed concentration of CO2. The notion has evolved and now it is customary to encounter terms such as "constant emissions commitment", "sea level rise commitment" and "zero emissions commitment". All these notions refer to how much change with respect to the current climate state is expected at a given point in the future considering our current climate state and specified future anthropogenic emissions.

Here, we propose thinking about commitment as available options for future action that will allow future decision makers to avoid harmful futures. The definition requires the identification of unwanted outcomes e.g., too high temperature or too fast sea level rise and the specification of a range of possible future anthropogenic emission/intervention scenarios. Given an initial climate state, the measure of commitment is based on the diagnosis of which of those emission/intervention scenarios yield futures safe from the unwanted outcomes. This new definition of commitment explicitly captures the notion of legacy: It measures the range of options that the next generations have at their disposal to avoid harmful futures.

We illustrate the definition and methodology with a simple model featuring ice sheet tipping points and ocean carbonate chemical balance. After having introduced the model, we specify the considered future anthropogenic emission/intervention options available, along with the considered unwanted outcomes. We show how the safe options available for future generations would change in time if we were to follow some of the most standard emission scenarios used in the literature.

How to cite: Martinez Montero, M., Crucifix, M., Botta, N., and Brede, N.: Commitment as Lost Opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5928, 2022.

EGU22-5997 | Presentations | NP2.4

A fast-slow model for glacial cycles since the Mid-Pleistocene Transition 

Jade Ajagun-Brauns and Peter Ditlevsen

A new simple approach inspired by MacAyeal (1979) to explain the time-asymmetric ‘saw-toothed’ shape and 100,000-year quasi-period of glacial-interglacial cycles since the Middle Pleistocene Transition, is presented. Using a simple model with fast-slow dynamics, the global ice volume is taken to be a function of two independently varying parameters, the solar insolation and ‘alpha’, a secondary control parameter, the study of which is the focus this research. The steady state of the model is a partially folded surface in three-dimensional space where insolation, ‘alpha’, and global ice volume are orthogonal axes. The pleated surface allows for the gradual increase and sudden decrease in ice volume that is observed in the paleoclimate record. To derive a time series of global ice volume, the Euler integration method is used, producing a time series which replicates the ‘saw-toothed’ pattern of glacial cycles in the late Pleistocene. The second control parameter, ‘alpha’, is proposed to be related to internal dynamics of the climate system, such as ice sheet dynamics.

 

Reference

D. R.  MacAyeal, ‘A Catastrophe Model of the Paleoclimate Record’ , Journal of Glaciology , Volume 24 , Issue 90 , 1979 , pp. 245 – 257.

How to cite: Ajagun-Brauns, J. and Ditlevsen, P.: A fast-slow model for glacial cycles since the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5997, 2022.

EGU22-5999 | Presentations | NP2.4

AMOC Early-Warning Signals in CMIP6 

Lana Blaschke, Maya Ben-Yami, Niklas Boers, and Da Nian

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a vital part of the global climate that has been suggested to exhibit bi-stability. A collapse from its current strong state to the weak one would have significant consequences for the climate system. Early-warning signals (EWS) for such a transition have recently been found in observational fingerprints for the AMOC.

Some uncertainty in our understanding of the AMOC and its recent evolution is due to the varying quality of its representation in state-of-the-art models. In this work we examine the historical AMOC simulations in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) by analyzing the AMOC strength in the models both directly and through the sea-surface temperature fingerprint. As well as examining the evolution of these AMOC time-series in the models, we calculate their associated EWS and use these to evaluate the models in terms of their representation of the AMOC.

How to cite: Blaschke, L., Ben-Yami, M., Boers, N., and Nian, D.: AMOC Early-Warning Signals in CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5999, 2022.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and affects weather and climate in large parts of the world. Recently, we have developed a dynamical network approach for predicting the onset of El Niño events well before the spring predictability barrier. In the regarded climate network, the nodes are grid points in the Pacific, and the strengths of the links (teleconnections) between them are characterized by the cross-correlations of the atmospheric surface temperatures at the grid points. In the year before an El Niño event, the links between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the rest of the Pacific tend to strengthen such that the average link strength exceeds a certain threshold. This feature can be used to predict the onset of an El Niño with 73% probability and its absence with 90% probability. The p-value of the hindcasting and forecasting phase (1981-2021) for this performance based on random guessing with the climatological average is 4.6*10-5.

To assess whether this predictive feature is also present in coupled general circulation models, we apply our algorithm to historical and control runs of CMIP5 and CMIP6. We find that the predictive performance present in observational data is absent or very low in GCMs. The lack of this feature may explain the difficulties of GCMs to overcome the spring barrier.

How to cite: Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: El Niño forecasting by climate networks: comparison of the forecasting performance in observational data and in historical and controls runs of CMIP5 and CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6329, 2022.

The potential impact of tipping points for climate dynamics is now widely recognized. Furthermore, paleoclimate records suggest that abrupt climate changes have indeed occurred in Earth’s past, potentially on timescales which do not exceed a decade. Several tipping elements, involving various components of the climate system, such as the ocean circulation, sea-ice, continental ice sheets, vegetation, and their couplings, have been suggested. Yet, it remains virtually unknown whether the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the component of the climate system with shortest response time, may undergo bifurcations that could trigger abrupt climate change.

    In this talk I will discuss the possibility of abrupt transitions of the large-scale circulation in the tropics. Specifically, I will consider potential reversals of the mean zonal winds, from the weak easterlies observed in current climate to a "superrotation" state with prevailing westerly winds. The superrotating state exhibits a strongly reduced Hadley circulation.
    I will discuss positive feedback mechanisms and their relevance for the Earth across a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity. A low-dimensional model based on Rossby wave resonance exhibits bistability, and provides a simple criterion for the region of parameter space where this regime exists. We then study the nature of the transition to superrotation in a dry dynamical core, forced in an idealized manner. The main result is that there exists a parameter regime where the dry primitive equations support two coexisting states, with and without an equatorial jet. We will discuss the role of parameters such as the meridional temperature gradient and the boundary layer friction on the existence of this bifurcation.

How to cite: Herbert, C.: Bistability and hysteresis of the large-scale tropical circulation in idealized GCM simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6519, 2022.

EGU22-7029 | Presentations | NP2.4

Global-scale Changes in Vegetation Resilience Mapped with Satellite Data 

Taylor Smith, Niklas Boers, and Dominik Traxl

It is theorized that the resilience of natural ecosystems – their ability to resist and recover from external perturbations – can be estimated from their natural variability. We test this hypothesis using a global set of recovery rates from large disturbances derived from satellite vegetation data, and find that the expected theoretical relationships between these empirical recovery rates and the lag-1 autocorrelation and variance indeed hold approximately. The spatial pattern of global vegetation resilience reveals a strong link to both precipitation availability and variability, implying that water plays a first-order role in controlling the resilience of global vegetation.

The resilience of vegetation is not, however, static – global changes in temperature, precipitation, and anthropogenic influence will all impact the ability of ecosystems to adapt to and recover from disturbances. We investigate the global spatial and temporal patterns of changes in resilience using the empirically confirmed metrics – lag-1 autocorrelation and variance – and find spatially heterogeneous long-term (1980s-) trends; recent trends (2000s-) in vegetation resilience are strongly negative across land-cover types and climate zones.

How to cite: Smith, T., Boers, N., and Traxl, D.: Global-scale Changes in Vegetation Resilience Mapped with Satellite Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7029, 2022.

EGU22-7496 | Presentations | NP2.4

Information flow in complex high-dimensional systems 

Mart Ratas and Peter Jan van Leeuwen
Knowledge on how information flows in complex Earth system models would be of great benefit for our understanding of the system Earth and its components. In principle the Kolmogorov or Fokker-Planck equation can be used to estimate the evolution of the probability density. However, this is not very practical since this equation can only be solved in very low dimensional systems. Because of that, mutual information and information flow have been used to infer information in complex systems. This usually involves integration over all state variables, which is generally numerically too expensive. Here we introduce an exact but much simpler way to find how information flows in numerical solutions that only involves integrations over the local state variables. It allows to infer both magnitude and direction of the information flow. The method is based on ensemble integrations of the system, but because the calculations are local the ensemble size can remain small, of  O(100). 
In this talk we will explain the methodology and demonstrate its use on the highly nonlinear Kumamoto-Sivashinsky model using a range of model sizes and exploring both 1-dimensional and multi-dimensional configurations. 

How to cite: Ratas, M. and van Leeuwen, P. J.: Information flow in complex high-dimensional systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7496, 2022.

EGU22-7531 | Presentations | NP2.4

Bifurcation diagram for vegetation patterns model: old ways for new insight 

Lilian Vanderveken and Michel Crucifix

Spatial organization is a well-known feature of vegetation in semi-arid regions. This phenomenon appears in various parts of the world where water is the limiting factor for plants growing. Those patterns can be reproduced by using reaction-diffusion equations. Rietkerk developed a vegetation patterns model where the joint effects of a local reaction and diffusion create heterogeneous solutions.

The existence of those solutions expands the range of precipitation conditions under which vegetation can prevail. The complete region in the bifurcation diagram where such stable patterns exist is called the Busse balloon.

To our knowledge, no full investigation of the Busse balloon in Rietkerk’s model is available. Here we address this gap and dissect this Busse balloon by analysing the patterned solution branches of the bifurcation diagram.

For a given domain length, those branches can be computed starting from the different zero modes at the edge of the Turing zone around the branch of homogeneous solutions. Then, we use a Newton-Raphson method to track each branch for precipitation changes. Two types of branches appear. What we call the main branches have a roughly constant wavenumber along the branch. What we call the “mixed state branches” originate at the transition between stability and instability along one main branch. The corresponding solutions appear as mixing the solutions of two main branches, which is why we call them that way. However, we show that the latter plays a minor role in the dynamics of the system.

The awareness of the various patterned branch sheds new light on the dynamics of wavenumber switching or R-tipping for patterned systems. More generally, this work gives new insights into the behaviour of patterned systems under changing environment.

How to cite: Vanderveken, L. and Crucifix, M.: Bifurcation diagram for vegetation patterns model: old ways for new insight, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7531, 2022.

Confirmation exists for the 1997 revolutionary date of 12.850 cal yr BP established for the Laacher See Eruption (LSE) and introduced to encourage US-research on the P/H-KISS impact with LSE as isochrone and impact volcanism proxy (Bujatti-Narbeshuber, 1997). Bayesian analysis by Wolbach et al. (2018) of 157 dated records of the YD-impact hypothesis of Firestone et al. (2007) confirms impact with 2.854 ± 0.056 ka BP. This now allows to introduce the much larger P/H-KISS paleoceanographic transition scenario relating also to Holocene up to the present global climate change. The Holocene era, because of the thermohaline damped flow scenario, is herein considered as permanent end of the ice age, suggested here as the climatic consequence of an ocean topography and threshold change. Decoded cave art navigation world maps with Pleistocene paleoceanography content from Altamira , La Pasiega and El Castillo document in each one of the three maps specific AMOC stable states for interstadial/ full stadial/ stadial paleoclimate. Each map-thermohaline stable state is differently relating to a geomorphological boundary condition that is the subaerial surface Topography of a large Mid Atlantic Plateau (MAP)-Island. It is modelled in the P/H-KISS scenario as primary Pleistocene thermohaline phase 0 geomorphological threshold. As physical boundary condition it is in interaction with the thermohaline gulfstream current (above /below/at threshold). This results in the 3 distinct AMOC equilibrium stages of interstadial/ full stadial /stadial, as Pleistocene criticality interconnected by their respective further transition thresholds. When the primary  geomorphological threshold is removed the result is the Holocene damped flow, a transition continuum of thermohaline phases 1, 2, 3. Geomorphological proof is first the MAP-Island, invariably shown on all three maps. Furthermore the MAP-Island is identified by its characteristic topography on decorated columns in Göbekli Tepe as a highly abstract island symbol with deeper political-territorial meanings. With paleo-astronomical precession dating on Pillar 43, the LSE 12.850 cal yr BP date was reproduced and the YD (P/H-KISS) impact series from comet fragments in the Taurid stream were decoded by M. Sweatman (2019).  The symbol sequence on Pillar 18, revealed here for the first time, is the (HI-T) = MAP-Island-Dual 90°-Transition-Tsunami Code of the two step Mid Atlantic Ridge MAR & MAP- Island isostatic submersion by the Taurid stream Koefels-comet oceanic-impact fragments: Paleoclimatology thus confirms and now extends the D. Paillard (1998) three equilibria ocean-box-climate-model with 3 thresholds for 3 transitions between the 3 thermohaline stable states of the ice age to the larger P/H-KISS transition scenario of paleo-climate change. It states that the above 3 AMOC states are exclusively based on the existence of the MAP-Island threshold. Isostatic MAR & MAP-Submergence brings their ice age ending collapse into the broad continuum of the Global warming Threshold Triad with thermohaline damped flow in a very long lasting Holocene interstadial.

 

*) Bujatti-Narbeshuber, M. - Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary oceanic Koefels-comet Impact Series Scenario (KISS) of 12.850 yr BP Global-warming Threshold Triad (GTT). -Climates: Past, Present and Future; Second European Palaeontological Congress Abstracts edited by D.K. Ferguson & H.A. Kollmann; Vienna, 1997.

 

How to cite: Dr. Bujatti-Narbeshuber, M.: Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary oceanic Koefels-comet Impact Series Scenario (KISS) of 12.850 yr BP Global-warming Threshold Triad (GTT)-Part II *), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8412, 2022.

EGU22-8745 | Presentations | NP2.4

Stochastic Modeling of Stratospheric Temperature 

Mari Eggen, Kristina Rognlien Dahl, Sven Peter Näsholm, and Steffen Mæland

This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for surface temperatures. The proposed model is a combination of a deterministic seasonality function and a Lévy-driven multidimensional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean-reverting stochastic process. More specifically, the deseasonalized temperature model is an order 4 continuous-time autoregressive model, meaning that the stratospheric temperature is modeled to be directly dependent on the temperature over four preceding days, while the model’s longer-range memory stems from its recursive nature. This study is based on temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis model product. The residuals of the autoregressive model are well represented by normal inverse Gaussian-distributed random variables scaled with a time-dependent volatility function. A monthly variability in speed of mean reversion of stratospheric temperature is found, hence suggesting a generalization of the fourth-order continuous-time autoregressive model. A stochastic stratospheric temperature model, as proposed in this paper, can be used in geophysical analyses to improve the understanding of stratospheric dynamics. In particular, such characterizations of stratospheric temperature may be a step towards greater insight in modeling and prediction of large-scale middle atmospheric events, such as sudden stratospheric warming. Through stratosphere–troposphere coupling, the stratosphere is hence a source of extended tropospheric predictability at weekly to monthly timescales, which is of great importance in several societal and industry sectors.

How to cite: Eggen, M., Rognlien Dahl, K., Näsholm, S. P., and Mæland, S.: Stochastic Modeling of Stratospheric Temperature, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8745, 2022.

EGU22-8753 | Presentations | NP2.4

Is West-Antarctica’s Tipping Point a Fixed Value? 

Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Javier Blasco

Given large regions of ice grounded below sea level associated with a retrograde bedrock, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is believed to be a tipping element whose tipping point could be reached within this century under high emission scenarios. As the WAIS represents the largest and most uncertain source of future sea-level rise, characterising its stability is crucial for defining safe emission pathways and protecting livelihoods in coastal regions. In the present work, we investigate its potential to undergo an abrupt change due to a fold bifurcation. To this end, we use a high-order ice sheet model with 16km spatial resolution. Rather than applying a fixed forcing rate as in previous studies, we apply a forcing scheme that adaptively increases the local temperature while keeping the system near equilibrium, which allows us to obtain a rigorous value for the bifurcation tipping point. More importantly, we show how this threshold can become relevant for much lower warming levels than expected - even within the bounds of relatively conservative emission scenarios. Subsequently, we explain the underlying mechanisms leading the marine ice-sheet instability to possibly arise earlier than suggested by the bifurcation study. We finally question whether the tipping point of the WAIS can be understood as a fixed temperature value and if not, by which information it should be extended to provide an early warning signal.

How to cite: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Blasco, J.: Is West-Antarctica’s Tipping Point a Fixed Value?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8753, 2022.

EGU22-9237 | Presentations | NP2.4

Using complex networks to predict abrupt changes in oscillatory systems 

Noemie Ehstand, Reik V. Donner, Cristóbal López, and Emilio Hernández-García

Functional networks are powerful tools to study statistical interdependency structures in extended systems. They have been used to get insights into the structure and dynamics of complex systems in various areas of science. In particular, several studies have suggested the use of precursors based on percolation transitions in correlation networks to forecast El Niño events.

Our aim is to provide a better understanding of the potential of such percolation precursors for the prediction of episodic events in generic systems presenting chaotic oscillations. To this end, we study the behavior of the precursors in a spatially extended stochastic Vallis model, an asymmetric Lorenz-63 type model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results demonstrate the ability of the largest connected component of the network to anticipate abrupt changes associated with the system's oscillatory dynamics.

This research was conducted as part of the CAFE Innovative Training Network (http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/) which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 813844.

How to cite: Ehstand, N., Donner, R. V., López, C., and Hernández-García, E.: Using complex networks to predict abrupt changes in oscillatory systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9237, 2022.

EGU22-9322 | Presentations | NP2.4

The Antarctic and Greenland response to PlioMIP2 mPWP climatic fields 

Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya

Since the pre-industrial era, global sea level has been rising along with greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the contribution to this sea-level change is the mass lost from continental ice sheets, i.e. the Greenland (GrIS) and Antarctic (AIS) ice sheets, which are shrinking at an accelerated rate. However, how they will respond to future warming is highly uncertain due to our lack of knowledge and associated uncertainty in modelling several physical processes, as well as in warming projections. A way to gain insight into future projections is to study past warm periods that are, to some extent, comparable to the present day (PD) in terms of external forcing. The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.3-3.0 million years ago) offers an ideal benchmark, as it is the most recent period with CO2 levels comparable to PD (350-450 ppmv), showing global mean temperatures 2.5-4.0 degrees higher. Eustatic sea-level reconstructions from that period estimate a sea level 15-20 meters higher than PD, implying ice sheets were much smaller in size. The GrIS was starting to form and the AIS was most likely constrained to land-based regions. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) has brought together over 15 climate outputs from 11 General Circulation models from different institutions. These models have simulated mPWP conditions under 400 ppmv of CO2 concentration over a topography generated from an updated bedrock configuration for that time period. Here we use these model outputs to force offline a higher-order ice sheet model for the Antarctic and Greenland domain. Our aim is to investigate how polar continental ice sheets respond to these different climatic fields to pinpoint their most significant climatic and topographical discrepancies. In addition, several sources of structural dependence, from different dynamic states (i.e. basal friction laws) to different initial boundary conditions (starting from no ice-sheet to the PD configuration) are investigated in this modelling framework to create a comprehensive output database for statistical analysis.

How to cite: Blasco, J., Tabone, I., Moreno-Parada, D., Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., and Montoya, M.: The Antarctic and Greenland response to PlioMIP2 mPWP climatic fields, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9322, 2022.

EGU22-9340 | Presentations | NP2.4

Measuring Amazon rainforest resilience from remotely sensed data 

Da Nian, Lana Blaschke, Yayun Zheng, and Niklas Boers

The Amazon rainforest has a major contribution to the bio-geochemical functioning of the Earth system and has been projected to be at risk of large-scale, potentially irreversible, dieback to a savanna state. Measuring the resilience of the Amazon rainforest empirically is critical to helping us understand the magnitude and frequency of disturbances that the rainforest can still recover from. Different means to quantify resilience in practice have been proposed. Here we determine the Amazon rainforest resilience based on a space-for-time replacement, and then estimating the average residence time in the forest state. This 'global' notion of resilience is different from local measures based on variance or autocorrelation and thus provides complementary information. We study the dependence of the exit-time-base resilience on total rainfall and, in order to study the evolution of the Amazon rainforest, we also estimate changes in their resilience over the years.

How to cite: Nian, D., Blaschke, L., Zheng, Y., and Boers, N.: Measuring Amazon rainforest resilience from remotely sensed data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9340, 2022.

EGU22-9504 | Presentations | NP2.4

Synchronization of layer-counted archives using a statistical age-depth model 

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, and Niklas Boers

Layer-counted paleoclimatic proxy records have non-negligible uncertainty arising from the dating process. Knowledge of this uncertainty is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses; for example for identification and dating of abrupt transitions in climate or to provide a complete uncertainty quantification of early warning signals. This dating uncertainty can be quantified by assuming a probabilistic model for the age-depth relationship. We assume that the number of counted layers per unit of depth can be described using a Bayesian regression model with residuals following an autoregressive process. By synchronizing the chronologies with other archives one can constrain the uncertainties and correct potential biases in the dating process. This is done by matching the chronologies to tie-points obtained by analyzing different archives covering the same period in time. In practice, tie-points can be associated with a significant amount of uncertainty which also needs to be accounted for. We present a theoretically consistent approach which, under certain assumptions, allows for efficient sampling from synchronized age-depth models that match the tie-points under known uncertainty distributions. The model and associated methodology has been implemented into an R-package. 

How to cite: Myrvoll-Nilsen, E., Riechers, K., and Boers, N.: Synchronization of layer-counted archives using a statistical age-depth model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9504, 2022.

EGU22-10031 | Presentations | NP2.4

Early Warning Signals For Climate Tipping Points: Beyond White Noise 

Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul Ritchie, and Peter Cox

Tipping points in the Earth System could present challenges for society and ecosystems. The existence of tipping points also provides a major challenge for science, as the global warming thresholds at which they are triggered is highly uncertain. A theory of `Early Warning Signals' has been developed to 
warn of approaching tipping points. Although this theory uses generic features of a system approaching a Tipping Point, the conventional application of it relies on an implicit assumption that the system experiences white noise forcing. In the Earth system, this assumption is frequently invalid.
Here, we extend the theory of early warning signals to a system additively forced by an autocorrelated process. We do this by considering the spectral properties of both the system and also of the forcing.  We test our method on a simple dynamical system, before applying our method to a particular example from the Earth System: Amazon rainforest dieback. Using our new approach, we successfully forewarn of modelled rainforest collapse in a state-of-the-art CMIP6 Earth System Model.

How to cite: Clarke, J., Huntingford, C., Ritchie, P., and Cox, P.: Early Warning Signals For Climate Tipping Points: Beyond White Noise, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10031, 2022.

EGU22-10128 | Presentations | NP2.4

Nonautonomous dynamics and its applications to paleoclimate 

Michael Ghil

The dynamics of systems with time-dependent forcing or coefficients has become a matter of considerable interest in the last couple of decades in general and in the last dozen years or so in the climate sciences in particular (Ghil, 2019; Ghil & Lucarini, 2020; Ghil, 2021; Tel et al., 2021; and references therein). We shall provide a general introduction to the topic and illustrate it with several paleoclimate-related examples (Crucifix, 2012; Riechers et al., 2022; Rousseau et al., 2022). Perspectives for further applications of the concepts and methods of the theory of pullback and random attractors and of their tipping points to paleoclimate will also be provided.

References

  • Crucifix, M.: Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory, PTRSA, 370, 1140–1165, 2012.
  • Ghil, M., 2019: A century of nonlinearity in the geosciences, Earth & Space Science, 6, 1007–1042, doi: 1029/2019EA000599.
  • Ghil, M., 2020: Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-429-2020.
  • Ghil, M., and V. Lucarini, 2020: The physics of climate variability and climate change, Mod. Phys., 92(3), 035002, doi: 10.1103/RevModPhys.92.035002.
  • Riechers, K., T. Mitsui, N. Boers, and M. Ghil, 2022: Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations, Clim. Past Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-136, in review.
  • Rousseau, D.-D., W. Bagnewski, and M. Ghil, 2021: Abrupt climate changes and the astronomical theory: are they related?, Clim. Past, accepted, doi: 10.5194/cp-2021-103 .
  • Tél, T., Bódai, T., Drótos, G., Haszpra, T., Herein, M., Kaszás, B. and Vincze, M., 2020. The theory of parallel climate realizations. Journal of Statistical Physics179(5), 1496–1530.

How to cite: Ghil, M.: Nonautonomous dynamics and its applications to paleoclimate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10128, 2022.

EGU22-10628 | Presentations | NP2.4

Loss of Earth System Resilience during Early Eocene Global Warming Events 

Shruti Setty, Margot Cramwinckel, Ingrid van de Leemput, Egbert H. van Nes, Lucas J. Lourens, Appy Sluijs, and Marten Scheffer

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 and 3 (ETM2; 54.06 Ma and ETM3; 52.87 Ma) were three of a series of abrupt climate and carbon cycle perturbations, characterized by massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system and strong global warming. These abrupt events, termed hyperthermals, potentially represent ‘tipping points’ at moments in time when the resilience of the system was low and reinforced by strong internal feedbacks, such as the catastrophic release of carbon from submarine methane hydrates. Alternatively, external mechanisms such as volcanism may have played a pronounced external role during the PETM. Here, we evaluate if the hyperthermals indeed resulted from reduced Earth System resilience and tipping point behaviour through the mathematical analyses of climate and carbon cycle indicators, namely, oxygen and stable carbon isotope ratios of deep ocean foraminifer calcite, across the late Paleocene and early Eocene. Our combined analysis using Dynamic Indicators of Resilience (DIORs) and Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) reveals a loss of resilience and an increase in the causal interaction between the carbon cycle and climate towards the PETM, ETM2, and ETM3. A novel, windowed CCM approach indicates a tight coupling between carbon and climate across the early Eocene, further supporting dominant climate forcing on carbon cycle dynamics. This indicates that the internal rather than external mechanisms were responsible for the hyperthermals, suggesting a secondary role for endogenic processes such as volcanism. Furthermore, the CCM analysis in conjunction with the absence of major positive feedbacks such as the presence of polar ice caps during early Eocene could be employed to stipulate that these hyperthermal events may be caused by the increase in coupling between the carbon cycle and climate systems, eventually pushing both systems towards a tipping point through increasing positive feedbacks.

How to cite: Setty, S., Cramwinckel, M., Leemput, I. V. D., Nes, E. H. V., Lourens, L. J., Sluijs, A., and Scheffer, M.: Loss of Earth System Resilience during Early Eocene Global Warming Events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10628, 2022.

EGU22-11671 | Presentations | NP2.4

Abrupt climate events recorded in speleothems from the ante penultimate glacial 

Vanessa Skiba, Martin Trüssel, Birgit Plessen, Christoph Spötl, René Eichstädter, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Tobias Braun, Takahito Mitsui, Norbert Frank, Niklas Boers, Norbert Marwan, and Jens Fohlmeister

Millennial-scale climate variability, especially abrupt stadial-interstadial transitions, are a prominent feature of the last glacial as recorded in Greenland ice core records (Dansgaard-Oeschger events). Event abruptness and presence of statistical early warning signals before these transitions indicate that they involve repeated crossing of a tipping point of the climate system. However, only little information is available for periods before the last glacial period as Greenland ice cores and many other high-resolution records do not extent beyond the last glacial cycle. Given the lack of understanding of the triggering mechanism responsible for glacial millennial-scale variability with palaeoclimate data from the last glacial, it is essential to investigate this phenomenon during earlier glacial periods.

Here, we present a new highly resolved, precisely U-Th-dated speleothem oxygen isotope record from the Northern European Alps, a region which has been previously shown to resemble the glacial millennial-scale climate variability obtained from Greenland ice core records very well. Our new data covers the time interval from the ante-penultimate glacial to the penultimate glacial (MIS8-MIS6) with a high degree of replication. For both glacial periods, we find phases of pronounced millennial-scale variability but also several, ~10 ka long phases with the climate system being exclusively in stadial conditions. We compare our data with conceptual model results and investigate the occurrence and absence of abrupt climate transitions of the last 300,000 a.

How to cite: Skiba, V., Trüssel, M., Plessen, B., Spötl, C., Eichstädter, R., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., Braun, T., Mitsui, T., Frank, N., Boers, N., Marwan, N., and Fohlmeister, J.: Abrupt climate events recorded in speleothems from the ante penultimate glacial, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11671, 2022.

EGU22-12053 | Presentations | NP2.4

Fitting and extrapolation of transient behaviour in the presence of tipping points 

Peter Ashwin, Robbin Bastiaansen, and Anna von der Heydt

One of the key problems in climate science is to understand the asymptotic behaviour of a climate model, such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), from finite time computations of transients of a model that may be complex and realistic. Typically, this is done by fitting to some simpler model and then extrapolating to an asymptotic state. But how do transients behave in the presence of tipping points? More precisely, how much warning can one get of an approaching tipping point? In this work we highlight an illustrative example showing how a good fit of a transient to a simpler model does not necessarily guarantee a good extrapolation, and discuss some other implicit assumptions that may arise when estimating quantities such as ECS.

How to cite: Ashwin, P., Bastiaansen, R., and von der Heydt, A.: Fitting and extrapolation of transient behaviour in the presence of tipping points, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12053, 2022.

EGU22-12438 | Presentations | NP2.4

Updated assessment suggests >1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points 

David Armstrong McKay, Arie Staal, Jesse Abrams, Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sakschewski, Sina Loriani, Ingo Fetzer, Sarah Cornell, Johan Rockström, and Timothy Lenton

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a forcing threshold, leading to abrupt and/or irreversible impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ‘core’ tipping elements and regional ‘impact’ tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several more tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5-2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2-3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. In further work we use these estimates to test the potential for and impact of tipping cascades in response to global warming scenarios using a stylised model. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

Preprint: https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10509769.1

How to cite: Armstrong McKay, D., Staal, A., Abrams, J., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T.: Updated assessment suggests >1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12438, 2022.

EGU22-12501 | Presentations | NP2.4

Paleoclimatic tipping points and abrupt transitions: An application of advanced time series analysis methods 

Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil, and Denis-Didier Rousseau

Paleoclimate proxy records contain abrupt transitions that may represent former instances of the climate system crossing a tipping point (TP). Properly identifying these TPs in the Earth’s past helps determine critical thresholds in present-day climate and better understand the climate system’s underlying bifurcation mechanisms.

Information contained in paleoclimate proxy records is often ambiguous because of the complexity of the system, which includes both deterministic and stochastic processes. Furthermore, paleoclimate time series differ in their time spans and periodicities, and often have high levels of noise and a nonuniform resolution. These combined sources of uncertainty highlight the need for using advanced statistical methods for robustly identifying and comparing TPs.

A recently developed method that uses an augmented Kolmogorov-Smirnov test has been shown to be highly effective for transition detection in different types of records. Here, we apply this method to a set of high-quality paleoproxy records exhibiting centennial-to millennial-scale variability that have been compiled in the PaleoJump database. We thereby detect previously unrecognized transitions in these records and identify potential TPs. Furthermore, we investigate regime changes with recurrence analysis and spectral analysis.

This study is supported by the H2020-funded Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES) project.

How to cite: Bagniewski, W., Ghil, M., and Rousseau, D.-D.: Paleoclimatic tipping points and abrupt transitions: An application of advanced time series analysis methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12501, 2022.

EGU22-12686 | Presentations | NP2.4

Early warning signals for topological tipping points 

Gisela Daniela Charó, Michael Ghil, and Denisse Sciamarella


The topology of the branched manifold associated with the Lorenz model’s random attractor (LORA) evolves in time. LORA’s time-evolving branched manifold robustly supports the point cloud associated with the system’s invariant measure at each instant in time. 

This manifold undergoes not only continuous deformations — with branches that bend, stretch or compress — but also discontinuous deformations, with branches that intersect at discrete times. These discontinuities in the system's invariant measure manifest themselves in the decrease or increase of the number of 1-holes, thus producing abrupt changes in the branched manifold’s topology.

Topological tipping points (TTPs) are defined as abrupt changes in the topology of a random attractor’s branched manifold. Branched Manifold Analysis through Homologies
(BraMAH) is a robust method that allows one to detect these fundamental changes. 
The existence of such TTPs is being confirmed by careful statistical analysis of LORA’s time-evolving branched manifold, following up on Charó et al. (Chaos, 2021, doi:10.1063/5.0059461). Research is being pursued on early warning signals for these TTPs, concentrating on local fluctuations in the system’s invariant measure.

How to cite: Charó, G. D., Ghil, M., and Sciamarella, D.: Early warning signals for topological tipping points, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12686, 2022.

EGU22-13023 | Presentations | NP2.4

Data-driven Reconstruction of Last Glacials' Climate Dynamics Suggests Monostable Greenland Temperatures and a Bistable Northern Hemisphere Atmosphere 

Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin, Forough Hassanibesheli, Dirk Witthaut, Pedro Lind, and Niklas Boers

Multiple proxy records from Greenland ice cores exhibit a series of concomitant abrupt climatic shifts during the last glacial. These so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events comprise, among others, warming over Greenland, a sudden retreat of North Atlantic and Nordic Seas’ sea ice, and an atmospheric reorganisation of hemispheric extent. Typically DO events are followed by a phase of moderate cooling, before the climate abruptly transition back to its pre-event state. While the physics behind these dynamics are still subject to a vibrant debate, the idea that at least one of the involved climatic subsystems features bistability is widely accepted.

We assess the stability of Greenland temperatures and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation represented by δ¹⁸O and dust concentration records from the NGRIP ice core, respectively. We investigate the 27-59 ky b2k period of the combined record which covers 12 major DO events at high temporal resolution. Regarding the data as the realisation of a stochastic process we reconstruct the corresponding drift and diffusion by computing the Kramers–Moyal (KM) coefficients. In contrast to previous studies, we find the drift of the δ¹⁸O to be monostable, while analysis of the dust record yields a bistable drift. Furthermore, we find a non-vanishing 4th-order KM coefficient for the δ¹⁸O, which indicates that the δ¹⁸O time series cannot be considered a standard type Langevin process. In a second step, we treat the joint (δ¹⁸O , dust) time series as a two dimensional stochastic process and compute the corresponding coefficients of the two dimensional KM expansion. This reveals the position of the fixed point of δ¹⁸O to be controlled by the value of the dust. In turn, the drift of the dust undergoes an imperfect supercritical pitchfork bifurcation when transitioning from low to high δ¹⁸O values.

How to cite: Riechers, K., Rydin, L., Hassanibesheli, F., Witthaut, D., Lind, P., and Boers, N.: Data-driven Reconstruction of Last Glacials' Climate Dynamics Suggests Monostable Greenland Temperatures and a Bistable Northern Hemisphere Atmosphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13023, 2022.

Many generations of climate general circulation models (GCMs) have suggested that a radical reorganisation (tipping) of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely in the 21st Century in response to the greenhouse gas emissions pathways considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet some studies suggest that GCMs as a class may represent an AMOC that is biased towards excessive stability. If this is the case then simply looking at AMOC response in the ensemble of current GCMs may give a misleading picture of the possible future pathways of the AMOC.

In this study we use a simple coupled climate model, including both the thermal and water cycle responses to greenhouse gas increase, to explore beyond the range of the current ensemble of ‘best estimate’ GCMs. What would the climate system need to look like in order for AMOC tipping to be a plausible outcome? We find that tipping behaviour would require key parameters controlling the response of the hydrological cycle to surface warming to be towards the edge of plausible ranges.

While AMOC tipping remains a ‘High Impact, Low Likelihood’ outcome, our results extend current knowledge by showing how AMOC tipping could occur in response to greenhouse gas forcing (as opposed to the common idealisation of ‘water hosing’ experiments). The results also show how monitoring key parameters of the climate system may over time allow the possibility of tipping to be more confidently assessed.

How to cite: Wood, R.: Climate storylines for AMOC tipping in response to increasing greenhouse gases, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13181, 2022.

CL5.1 – Tools for Climate studies

EGU22-2407 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

A first version of a comprehensive upper air network service back to 1905 on the Copernicus platform 

Leopold Haimberger, Ulrich Voggenberger, and Federico Ambrogi

Within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), several efforts have been initated for providing observation data via the Climate Data Store (CDS). We report on the InSitu Comprehensive Upper Air Network service which is under review for publication via the CDS.
Compared to existing repositories of historical radiosonde and PILOT balloon data, it introduces important novelties:
1) besides long-period records, it contains also short-period records, which are valuable for climate data assimilation efforts such as ERA5
2) homogeneity adjustments for temperature, humidity and wind for all records longer than a year.
3) observation+representativity error estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis departure statistics
4) additional data and metadata that accompany observation data, such as departure statistics and instrumentation information that can be downloaded in structured form
5) a flexible and user friendly interface, based on that of gridded data from the CDS, that allows to download data in CSV or netCDF formats, suitable for both time series analysis (long single station records) but also reanalysis purposes (all observation records for a point in time). 


Existing challenges regarding the formats to be used and regarding a sensible structuring of the metadata will be discussed. We will also outline the future extension of the service to offer gridded products out of the station records. 

How to cite: Haimberger, L., Voggenberger, U., and Ambrogi, F.: A first version of a comprehensive upper air network service back to 1905 on the Copernicus platform, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2407, 2022.

EGU22-5469 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Challenges in retrieving and using climate services' data for local-scale impact studies: insights from the SCORE project 

Iulia Anton, Roberta Paranunzio, Salem Gharbia, Luca Baldini, Tasneem Ahmed, Filippo Giannetti, Carlo Brandini, Alberto Ortolani, Cecil Meulenberg, Elisa Adirosi, She Hawke, Francesco Pilla, and Jose Gregorio Iglesias Rodriguez

The demand for tailored climate data by different users is growing worldwide together with the awareness of the challenges posed to society and the environment by climate change. The extreme weather events intensification, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion are urgent challenges to be addressed by European coastal cities. The overreaching scope of the H2020 SCORE (Smart Control of the Climate Resilience in European Coastal Cities) project is to develop a framework for the definition and uptake of integrated Ecosystem-Based Approaches (EBA) and smart digital tools by establishing a network of 10 coastal city' living labs' (CCLLs) to increase the climate resilience of European coastal cities. To achieve this, the first steps are focused on i) the identification and selection of reference datasets for the historical baseline characterization and the projections for the next decades, ii) the downscaling of climate projections in order to produce a dataset of environmental parameters with the suitable temporal and spatial resolution for the project CCLLs' application needs, and iii) the development of statistical tools for data analysis, modeling and testing to assess the occurrence of major coastal hazards and the future evolution trends of the coastline. For this purpose, open, free, and reliable climate data are needed.

Based on some essential requirements, a procedure to select, from the main European climate services, fit-for-purpose climate and marine data of interest for SCORE users has been set up. Moreover, a step-by-step procedure on how to access and handle these data has been provided.  One of the main issues encountered while exploring the vast range of different climate services and datasets available consists in the articulation of the users' needs. In particular, the best coverage in terms of variables of interest for modeling and Spatio-temporal resolution must be ensured, while guaranteeing a good users' experience in terms of easy accessibility and the provision of information on (meta)data quality, standards, and conventions. The fragmentation of marine data repositories during the previous decades, along with their limited historical temporal coverage are other main challenges encountered. In addition, notwithstanding the availability of datasets downscaled from global to regional models, the spatio-temporal resolution of most part of datasets requires undertaking some statistical or physical downscaling procedures for their use in local impact studies.

We thus construct our analysis on those databases and services which are officially available through and/or supported by EU institutions like, e.g., the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Climate Data Store (CDS), the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) portal or the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet) initiative.    The various criteria defined to select the most appropriate climate services and related datasets for the SCORE activities will be presented as well as a few case studies as examples of possible climate information communication strategies, to help the end-user practically understand and tackle the challenges when interacting with the dataset-interface and in data handling procedures.

How to cite: Anton, I., Paranunzio, R., Gharbia, S., Baldini, L., Ahmed, T., Giannetti, F., Brandini, C., Ortolani, A., Meulenberg, C., Adirosi, E., Hawke, S., Pilla, F., and Iglesias Rodriguez, J. G.: Challenges in retrieving and using climate services' data for local-scale impact studies: insights from the SCORE project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5469, 2022.

EGU22-5499 | Presentations | CL5.1.1 | Highlight

The Climate Impact Explorer, a free online tool providing sectoral impact projections for a wide range of scenarios down to the subnational level 

Quentin Lejeune, Peter Pfleiderer, Thessa Beck, Inga Menke, Chahan Kropf, Inga Sauer, and Carl Schleussner

This online climate impact tool was developed as part of a collaboration with the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) aiming at improving the understanding of how physical risks from climate change impact the macro-economic and financial systems. Interactions with stakeholders from the NGFS enabled to identify how tailored climate impact information could facilitate this understanding by fulfilling the following criteria: (i) provision of projections for other scenarios that those classically used in climate science, more tailored to the financial and macro-economic systems, (ii) for many sectoral indicators with a specific interest for economic damages from climate impacts, (iii) with a comprehensive estimate of the associated uncertainty and especially its upper bound, and (iv) in a spatially explicit way but also aggregated over administrative units.

As a result, the Climate Impact Explorer provides impact projections aggregated over all continents, countries and their provinces for many sectoral and economic damage indicators, as well as several global warming levels and various emissions scenarios, including those co-developed with the NGFS. The associated uncertainty ranges encompass both the global climate sensitivity to emissions and the response of local impacts to global warming. The tool also displays maps of projected impacts for 1.5, 2, 2.5 and 3°C of global warming over all countries in the world. All time series plots, maps and underlying data can be freely downloaded.

No dedicated simulations were run to produce the underlying data, instead we made use of the 0.5°x0.5° impact projections from ISIMIP2b, as well as existing runs by the CLIMADA model at a resolution of 5 arcmins for the economic damage indicators. The employed methodology can be applied to any emissions scenarios for which the resulting global warming trajectories are available.

The tool has already been used by central banks and other financial institutions or companies, and has proved of high interest for stakeholders from developing countries where little impact information is available. Efforts are currently ongoing to use information from the Climate Impact Explorer for stress testing of macro-economies to climate physical risks. This should hopefully lead to further improve the understanding of data needs and overall help increase the resilience of economies and the financial system to climate change.

How to cite: Lejeune, Q., Pfleiderer, P., Beck, T., Menke, I., Kropf, C., Sauer, I., and Schleussner, C.: The Climate Impact Explorer, a free online tool providing sectoral impact projections for a wide range of scenarios down to the subnational level, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5499, 2022.

EGU22-5525 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Retrieving diurnal cycles from daily projections for impact studies 

Sylvie Parey, Lila Collet, Joël Gailhard, Boutheina Oueslati, and Paul-Antoine Michelangeli

Impact studies, devoted to the energy demand in buildings or to the watershed hydrology, often need climate variable time series at the hourly time scale. However, climate projection outputs are mostly available at the daily time step, except for a few variables provided at the 3- or 6-hourly time step in some cases. In this paper, two ways of computing a diurnal cycle developed and used in impact studies at EDF/R&D are discussed.

The first approach has been defined to provide consistent hourly projections for four variables used to estimate the energy demand for heating/cooling of buildings at the 2050 horizon: temperature, wind speed, radiation and relative humidity at different geographical locations in France. The main idea is to use the distribution of the daily and geographical mean temperature over the whole French territory to identify an analogue day in the ERA5 reanalysis database. Then, for each variable and each location, the differences (for temperature) or ratios (for the other variables) between the daily mean and each hourly value are added to / multiplied by the daily mean value to assess local diurnal cycles. The approach is illustrated for 3 locations in France and its validation in terms of spatial and intervariable consistency is discussed, together with a highlight of the limitations and possible improvements.

The second approach uses a statistical bias correction method, namely the CDF-t (“Cumulative Distribution Function-transform”) approach (Michelangeli et al., 2009). The CDF-t was initially developed to spatially downscale and bias correct climate model projections by defining a correction function regarding the cumulative distribution functions of observed and modelled data over the reference and future time periods. In this work, it was adapted to temporally downscale climatic projections of surface thermal radiation downward from the daily to the 3-hourly time step for seven locations. It was based on daily series for the 1976-2065 time period and 3-hourly time series for 33 years scattered in the total time period. The CDF-t was applied as follow: 3-hourly time series are considered as “observations”. The 33 years displaying those data constitute the calibration time period, the remaining 57 years from the 1976-2065 time period are considered as the projection time period. Daily data are first roughly downscaled to the 3-hour time step by allocating the same daily values to all the 3-hour time steps across the 1976-2065 time period. Then the CDF-t method was applied to the 3-hour series considering the calibration and projection time periods. Results show satisfactory performances in terms on inter-annual and seasonal variability and cumulative distribution function. Mean annual bias is below 5% across the seven locations.

 

Reference:

Michelangeli, P.-A., Vrac, M., and Loukos, H. Probabilistic downscaling approaches: Application to wind cumulative distribution functions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2009, 36, L11708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038401.

How to cite: Parey, S., Collet, L., Gailhard, J., Oueslati, B., and Michelangeli, P.-A.: Retrieving diurnal cycles from daily projections for impact studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5525, 2022.

EGU22-6197 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Deployment of scientific climate services for extreme events investigations 

Nils Hempelmann, Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Carsten Ehbrecht, Étienne Plésiat, and Ilias Pechlivanidis

Producing and providing useful information for climate services requires vast volumes of data to come together which requires technical standards. Especially in the case of extreme climate events, where scientific methods for appropriate assessments, detection or even attribution are facing high complexity for the data processing workflows, therefore the production of climate information services requires optimal technical systems to underpinn climate services with science. These climate resilience information systems like the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) can be enhanced when scientific workflows for extreme event detection are optimized as information production service, accordingly deployed to be usable by extreme event experts to facilitate their work through a frontend. Deployment into federated data processing systems like CDS requires that scientific methods and their algorithms be wrapped up as technical services following standards of application programming interfaces (API) and, as good practice, even FAIR principles. FAIR principles means to be Findable within federated data distribution architectures, including public catalogues of well documented scientific analytical processes. Remote storage and computation resources should be operationally Accessible to all, including low bandwidth regions and closing digital gaps to ‘Leave No One Behind’. including Data inputs, outputs, and processing API standards are the necessary conditions to ensure the system is Interoperable. And they should be built from Reusable building blocks that can be realized by modular architectures with swappable components, data provenance systems, and rich metadata.
Here we present challenges and preliminary prototypes for service which are based on OGC API standards for processing (https://ogcapi.ogc.org/processes/) open geospatial consortium (OGC). We are presenting blueprints on how AI-based scientific workflows can be ingested into climate resilience information systems to enhance climate services related to extreme weather and impact events. The importance of API standards will be pointed out to ensure reliable data processing in federated spatial data infrastructures. Examples will be taken from the EU H2020 Climate Intelligence (CLINT; https://climateintelligence.eu/) project, where extreme events components will be developed for C3S. Within this project, appropriate technical services will be developed as building blocks ready to deploy into digital data infrastructures like C3S but also European Science Cloud, or the DIAS. This deployment flexibility results out of the standard compliance and FAIR principles. In particular, a service employing state-of-the-art deep learning based inpainting technology to reconstruct missing climate information of global temperature patterns will be developed. This OGC-standard based web processing service (WPS) will be used as a prototype and extended in the future to other climate variables. Developments focus on heatwaves and warm nights, extreme droughts, tropical cyclones and compound and concurrent events, including their impacts, whilst the concepts are targeting generalised opportunities to transfer any kind of scientific workflow to a technical service underpinning scientific climate service. The blueprints are taking into account how to chain the data processing from data search and fetch, event index definition and detection as well as identifying the drivers responsible for the intensity of the extreme event to construct storylines guiding to the event.

How to cite: Hempelmann, N., Alvarez-Castro, C., Kadow, C., Kindermann, S., Ehbrecht, C., Plésiat, É., and Pechlivanidis, I.: Deployment of scientific climate services for extreme events investigations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6197, 2022.

EGU22-6372 | Presentations | CL5.1.1 | Highlight

Better Tailoring of Climate Information for End Users using Targeted Interfaces and Tools 

Christian Pagé, Alessandro Spinuso, Abel Aoun, Lars Bärring, and Klaus Zimmermann

End users of climate change information are relying on climate services and tools in order to produce meaningful information for specific applications. Data volumes as well as the number of datasets are increasing very rapidly, and the ability to select, process and download all needed data is getting complex, technical and very time-consuming. It is especially true since those datasets are often distributed among several data centres and into a large quantity of files.

Several platform are being developed to hide this complexity to users and provide a seamless access to climate data, as well as to provide on-demand data analysis capabilities. We can cite, for example, the Copernicus Data Store (CDS https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu), along with its toolbox to perform online data analysis. Another platform is developed within the H2020 IS-ENES3 project, called climate4impact (C4I 2.0 https://dev.climate4impact.eu ). It is using an enhanced Jupyter-Lab environment called SWIRRL (Software for Interactive Reproducible Research Labs https://gitlab.com/KNMI-OSS/swirrl ) along with a collection of Jupyter notebooks (https://gitlab.com/is-enes-cdi-c4i/notebooks) as useful set of example on how to use the data.

Finally, the portal provides interactive pages for the evaluation of climate models (using ESMValTool) to guide users on selecting climate datasets. 

The notebooks that can be executed in C4I, are developed using a very convenient software library, which is made available via SWIRRL, to calculate climate indices and indicators called icclim (v5.0 https://github.com/cerfacs-globc/icclim ). This library, which is also in the process of being integrated into the C3S, is a flexible python software package to calculate climate indices and indicators. This tool adhere as much as possible to metadata conventions such as the Climate & Forecasting Conventions (CF-1.x) as well as the clix-meta (https://github.com/clix-meta) work that is being done in IS-ENES3. Proper provenance information still needs to be added. The ultimate goal is to be as close as possible to all FAIR aspects. icclim is designed with performance and optimisation in mind, because the goal is to provide on-demand calculations for users. It provides the implementation of most of the international standard climate indices such as ECAD, ETCCDI, ET-SCI, including the correct methodology for calculating percentile indices using the bootstrapping method. It has been validated against R.Climdex as well (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/climdex.pcic/index.html). This new 5.x version of icclim is based on functions from the xclim (https://github.com/Ouranosinc/xclim) python library, which was inspired by earlier versions of icclim, but using xarray and dask for data access and processing.

In this presentation, the climate4impact 2.0 platform will be described along with the icclim climate indices tool. Important metadata aspects will also be discussed (clix-meta). A few examples using the jupyter notebook collection will be shown.

 

This project (IS-ENES3) has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N°824084.

How to cite: Pagé, C., Spinuso, A., Aoun, A., Bärring, L., and Zimmermann, K.: Better Tailoring of Climate Information for End Users using Targeted Interfaces and Tools, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6372, 2022.

EGU22-6593 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

FAIR building blocks for climate resilience information systems 

Josh Lieberman, Nils Hempelmann, Ag Stephens, Carsten Ehbrecht, Trevor Smith, Tom Landry, Cameron Wilson, and Eduardo Pechorro

Cloud-based big earth data workflow architectures for operational decision making across communities need to follow FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles in order to be effective. This presentation highlights mature implementations of OGC standards-based building blocks for climate data processing and service provision that are deployed in leading climate services information server systems such as the COPERNICUS Climate Change Service C3S. OGC Web Processing Services (WPS) form the bases of component operations in these implementations, from simple polygon subsetting to climate indices calculation and complex hydrological modelling. Interoperable building blocks also handle security functions such as user registration, client-site utilities, and data quality compliance. 

A particular focus will be the ROOCS (Remote Operations on Climate Simulations) project, a set of tools and services to provide "data-aware" processing of ESGF  (Earth System Grid Federation) and other standards-compliant climate datasets from modelling initiatives such as CMIP6 and CORDEX. One example is the WPS service ‘Rook’, that enables remote operations, such as spatio-temporal subsetting, on climate model data. It exposes all  the operations available in the ‘daops’ library based on Xarray. Finch is a WPS-based service for remote climate index calculations, also used for the analytics of ClimateData.ca, that dynamically wraps Xclim, a Python-based high-performance distributed climate index library. Finch automatically builds catalogues of available climate indicators, fetches data using “lazy”-loading, and manages asynchronous requests with Gunicorn and Dask. Raven-WPS provides parallel web access to a dynamically-configurable ‘RAVEN’ hydrological modelling framework with numerous pre-configured hydrological models (GR4J-CN, HBV-EC, HMETS, MOHYSE) and terrain-based analyses. Coupling GeoServer-housed terrain datasets with climate datasets, RAVEN can perform analyses such as hydrological forecasting without requirements of local access to data, installation of binaries, or local computation.

The EO Exploitation Platform Common Architecture (EOEPCA) describes an app-to-the-data paradigm where users select, deploy and run application workflows on remote platforms where the data resides. Following OGC Best Practices for EO Application Packages, Weaver executes workflows that chain together various applications and WPS inputs/outputs. It can also deploy near-to-data applications using Common Workflow Language (CWL) application definitions. Weaver was developed especially with climate services use cases in mind.

The architectural patterns illustrated by these examples will be exercised and tested in the upcoming OGC Climate Services Pilot initiative, whose  outputs will be also  incorporated into disaster risk indicators developed in the upcoming OGC Disaster Pilot 2022.

Further reading:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IrwlEiR-yRLcoI9fGh2B1leH4KU0v0SUMWQqiaxc1BM/edit



 

How to cite: Lieberman, J., Hempelmann, N., Stephens, A., Ehbrecht, C., Smith, T., Landry, T., Wilson, C., and Pechorro, E.: FAIR building blocks for climate resilience information systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6593, 2022.

EGU22-7439 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Refined global atmospheric energy budget from ERA5 

Johannes Mayer, Michael Mayer, and Leopold Haimberger

Climate change is accelerating, and its implications are getting more severe every year. As the exchange of energy within the climate system plays a major role during this time, it becomes pivotal to track anomalous energy transports. A precise quantification of Earth's energy balance is thus indispensable in order to understand the way climate is changing. 

We report the publication of a novel dataset providing mass-consistent global atmospheric energy and moisture budget terms for the period 1979-2020. The dataset is derived from 1-hourly analyzed state quantities of the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF using advanced numerical and diagnostic methods. It provides monthly averages of vertically integrated atmospheric water vapour and moist static plus kinetic energy transports on a 0.25° regular grid. The fields are much less noisy than similar quantities from standard ERA5 postprocessing, although they have been calculated at full horizontal resolution (T639). They show sharp gradients along coastal lines and sea-ice edges making them well suited for regional studies. Other possible applications of this dataset are, e.g., the assessment of global atmospheric energy and moisture budgets, evaluation of ocean-to-land energy and moisture transports, and meridional atmospheric energy transports. Furthermore, various surface flux terms can be estimated indirectly, such as freshwater fluxes or net heat fluxes when combined with state of the art top-of-the-atmosphere products such as CERES-EBAF. This dataset is publicly available via the Copernicus Climate Data Store (see "Refined atmospheric energy budget from ERA5").

How to cite: Mayer, J., Mayer, M., and Haimberger, L.: Refined global atmospheric energy budget from ERA5, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7439, 2022.

EGU22-7917 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Potential economic value of seasonal forecasts of water flows for hydropower production. 

Elisa Delpiazzo, Carlotta Gianni, Paolo Mazzoli, Francesco Dalla Valle, and Stefano Bagli

Demonstrating the potential economic value of seasonal forecasts is a fundamental signal to mainstream their application in real life and make them actionable instruments to cope with future climate change and to promote adaptation measures and sustainable management of natural resources.

This presentation aims to explore the potential economic value of monthly seasonal forecasts of water flows in a reservoir located in Colombia (i.e. Betania) delivering hydropower production during the period 1993-2016. To assess the economic value a maximizing simulation is applied using two alternative forecasts samples, namely the climatological mean, and the forecasts produced by the climate service SCHT (www.https://gecosistema.com/climate-tools/scht-smart-climate-hydropower-tool/). Then, the simulation has been fed with effective realizations to produce a benchmark. Finally, we get the maximum potential value, when effective realization is considered, and the potential achievable values of the alternative forecasts and their deviation with respect to the benchmark. The simulation is set as a revenue maximizing problem for a representative producer according to a series of technical constraints, such as the reservoir capacity and its volume.

Results demonstrate that SCHT forecasts have a positive value compared to the climatological mean forecasts in normal conditions. For this reason, the analysis is enriched with a sensitivity test on the technical constraints. Therefore, we produce a set of alternative scenarios considering different capacity and volume levels. For volume, we assume either 100% or 50% (net of natural discharges), and for capacity, we assume either 900 m3/s (the maximum) or 600 m3/s. The final objective is to understand whether the technical constraints affect the results and which constraints has a higher impact.

How to cite: Delpiazzo, E., Gianni, C., Mazzoli, P., Dalla Valle, F., and Bagli, S.: Potential economic value of seasonal forecasts of water flows for hydropower production., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7917, 2022.

EGU22-8383 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

The role of soil moisture information in developing robust climate services for smallholder farmers: evidence from Ghana 

Spyridon Paparrizos, Samuel Sutanto, Baba M. Jamaldeen, Abdulai Kantunsong Issahaku, Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Bizoola Z. Gandaa, Lisanne Nauta, Iwan Supit, and Erik van Slobbe

In Ghana, most of the farmers are engaged in small-scale rainfed farming where the success is influenced by how the farmers are able to march their decisions to the prevailing weather conditions. Climate information services (CIS), which includes weather forecasts, can help farmers to reduce their vulnerability to climate extremes and allow them to maximize agricultural productivity. Current services in Ghana and elsewhere in the world, however, only provides information on the recent and forecasted meteorological variables, primarily precipitation and temperature. Having access to other practical knowledge, such as soil moisture content would help farmers further in the decision-making process. Soil moisture is a key component for better farm management practices, because the plant establishment and growth are directly impacted by the soil moisture content. Therefore, this study aims to assess the importance of soil moisture information in farmers’ agricultural decision-making and to understand how this information is being perceived, assessed, and applied. An exploratory research, combined with field visits, farmer interviews, including questionnaires, and focus group discussions was carried out in three local farming communities i.e. Gbulung, Napakzoo, and Yapalsi in the outskirts of Tamale, northern Ghana. Results show that farmers clearly understand the importance of soil moisture for agriculture decision-making in every farming stages. Many farmers expressed that soil moisture information is highly important for fertilizer application and sowing. This information, however, is not well received by the farmers, causing farmers to rely on their indigenous knowledge to monitor the soil moisture conditions. Soil moisture forecast is ranked as the second critical information for farmers after precipitation. Capacity building and frequent interactions at farmer field schools and trainings could increase the farmer’s understanding and awareness of the role of soil moisture in agricultural decision-making. Moreover, farmers show an interest in a CIS embedded with a soil moisture forecast advisory module (CIS-SM) that could help them to increase the water-use efficiency and in the end, reduce the pressure on available water resources for agriculture.

How to cite: Paparrizos, S., Sutanto, S., Jamaldeen, B. M., Issahaku, A. K., Kranjac-Berisavljevic, G., Gandaa, B. Z., Nauta, L., Supit, I., and van Slobbe, E.: The role of soil moisture information in developing robust climate services for smallholder farmers: evidence from Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8383, 2022.

EGU22-8444 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Co-designing user stories for geodata applications to support climate action in 5 GEO Societal Benefit Areas 

Ruben Hage, Angelique Lansu, Borjana Bogatinoska, and Joop de Kraker

To support climate change adaptation and mitigation measures of the Paris Agreement and Glasgow follow-up, practitioners co-designing measures within their community of practice require geodata to support decision making. Geodata has the qualities of being current and local, but is not always easily accessible. Climate applications, like climate services, can increase accessibility and ensure that data is ready-to-use, hence bridging the gap between geodata and practitioners. Such applications should meet the needs of a range of potential users, and it is therefore important for practitioners to be involved in their development. One way of ensuring adequate involvement is through participatory sessions where practitioners and developers co-create ‘user stories’ as means to identify requirements for the applications. This approach is by no means novel; user centric design has been applied in the development process of a wide range of applications. Nevertheless, it is worthwhile to investigate how user stories can be developed in such a way that they are of high quality and therefore useful as input for application development. Given the increased need for climate services such as climate change applications, this question is particularly important for applications that support climate action.

This empirical study addresses the information gap faced by geo data application developers concerning user needs. Through a series of participatory workshops with practitioners and developers, data on user-formulated needs covering a wide range of user types and Earth Observation application domains was collected. This concerns user stories that were co-created as input for the development of a range of decision support applications for the H2020 EIFFEL project. The aim of EIFFEL is to offer the Earth Observation community the capacity to exploit existing GEOSS datasets in order to support decision-making for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Central to the project are the development and uptake of 5 pilot applications on Climate Change adaptation and mitigation measures. The EIFFEL pilots cover the following GEO Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs): (1) water and land use management, (2) sustainable agriculture, (3) transport management, (4) sustainable urban development, and (5) disaster resilience.

By identifying the needs of practitioners, it is possible for developers to develop useful applications that are tailored to said needs. The online participatory workshops resulted in relevant data with regards to these needs. During these workshops, participants were invited to co-create user stories for the applications by identifying (1) the user, (2) climate change challenges faced, (3) goals, and (4) core tasks for every story. This data was interpreted by the researchers and subjected to further review in order to develop fully-fledged user stories for each pilot application. This process resulted in a total of 18 user stories for all pilot applications, with around 4 stories per SBA. Knowledge gaps to be addressed are on how this approach to user story creation helps to co-design climate applications that prove to enhance the access to and practical use of climate-relevant geodata. After all, the purpose of climate services is to make relevant climate information accessible to the user.

How to cite: Hage, R., Lansu, A., Bogatinoska, B., and de Kraker, J.: Co-designing user stories for geodata applications to support climate action in 5 GEO Societal Benefit Areas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8444, 2022.

EGU22-8582 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Monitoring climate related risk and opportunities for wine sector: the MED-GOLD Pilot Service 

Alessandro Dell'Aquila, António Graça, Marta Teixeira, Natacha Fontes, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Raul Marcos-Matamoros, Chihchung Chou, Marta Terrado, Christos Giannakopoulos, Konstantinos Varotsos, Federico Caboni, Riccardo Locci, Martina Nanu, Sara Porru, Giulia Argiolas, Marta Bruno Soares, and Michael Sanderson

MED-GOLD is a four-year research and innovation project, whose main aim was to co-develop climate services for three staples of the Mediterranean food system, namely grapes, olives and durum wheat. This paper describes the methodology adopted for the co-development of the pilot climate service for the wine sector, focusing on the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) in northern Portugal. 

In the first step, the MED-GOLD Champion Sogrape Vinhos identified  the key management decisions, the climatic information of interest and users’ needs for the wine sector in the DDR. From this information, the relevant bioclimatic indicators (and the key essential climate variables - ECVs) were identified and obtained. Afterwards, two compound risk indices, the Sanitary and Heat Risk indices, were also calculated as a combination of some of the aforementioned bioclimatic indicators. This methodological work was validated against the empirical climate characterization for the region of interest, of several ‘bad’ and ‘good’ years  chosen by users according to their recollections of grape and wine production outcomes, namely overall quality and yields. In addition, the overall strategy for selection of these years is presented. Then, the two components of the service based on seasonal predictions and longer-term climate projections are described. 

The final step was the development of the MED-GOLD Dashboard, an interactive tool that displays detailed historical climate data, seasonal predictions and climate projections. The dashboard is a map-based, user-focused visualization interface to aid easy access to and understanding of the data computed in an ICT platform. The dashboard was iteratively co-designed with the users to ensure their needs were met.

How to cite: Dell'Aquila, A., Graça, A., Teixeira, M., Fontes, N., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Marcos-Matamoros, R., Chou, C., Terrado, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Varotsos, K., Caboni, F., Locci, R., Nanu, M., Porru, S., Argiolas, G., Bruno Soares, M., and Sanderson, M.: Monitoring climate related risk and opportunities for wine sector: the MED-GOLD Pilot Service, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8582, 2022.

We've reached an inflection point in our relationship with the climate. Accelerating climate volatility is threatening the assets we rely on. To adapt, we need to be smarter, more prescient, more decisive, and more collaborative than ever before. We need new instruments and new insights. We need what we call Climate Intelligence.

 

Cervest creates Climate Intelligence for every person, asset, and decision. Climate Intelligence transforms how we build, manage, and de-risk our most valuable assets. Climate Intelligence enables us to adapt and decarbonize at scale to build an equitable and resilient future for our planet.

 

Cervest is at a turning point: we have concluded the first round of development whereby the initial offerings our scientists developed have been explored by major enterprises worldwide and incorporated in their decisions and reporting. A co-creation phase has been part of the process whereby we elicited users’ feedbacks. Learnings from this phase both confirmed some of our expectations and revealed needs we had not fully appreciated, many of which are leading to the deepening of our market education efforts as well as scientific-product developments. 

 

We find that to proactively adapt and decarbonize, it is essential to establish fruitful collaborations among different actors, and more specifically between Cervest and publicly funded institutions. It is within such collaborations that a swift exchange of information, data and expertise clarifies roles and responsibilities, ultimately accelerating our common drive to support adaptation and mitigation. 

We will share the lessons we have learned and, following the conveners’ call, our view of what is desirable from the public sector, ultimately engaging with academics.

How to cite: Zamboni, L. and White, J.: Cervest as the provider of Climate Intelligence: learnings from our users, collaborations with academics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9940, 2022.

There is an increasing demand for tailored climate services to assist informed decision-making. The scientific basis is there, with high-quality relevant models available for nearly any facet and topic within climate science. However, usage of these models requires a high degree of subject matter knowledge. Conversely, many simplified tools and reports either lose the interactivity that models offer or still require at least a working knowledge of the field. My project explores the potential of Augmented Reality (AR) to provide interactive and easy-to-use climate services to non-scientists. AR could allow for a whole new class of users to participate in the climate change debate, by offering them to assess climate impacts of different climate scenarios and trade-offs between various response measures. One of the key benefits of mobile AR is its accessibility, since it does not require any special dedicated equipment, working on almost all smartphones and being familiar to many users who already experienced AR in other popular applications.


Two different AR approaches are used as the methodology. In-situ augmented reality is explored as a way to allow the user to assess climate impacts on their location, giving a more personal experience. Seeing the impacts on their own environment is more likely to leave an impression and influence users to make changes. On-table collaborative augmented reality simulations are used to provide a bird’s eye view of a larger area and to allow multiple-users to engage in the experience in a workshop style. In both approaches, the users are able to switch between different RCP climate scenarios and/or apply response measures, and instantly see the impacts of the change.

How to cite: Metelitsa, V.: Augmented Reality for the Visualization of the Impacts of Climate Change and Response Measures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11738, 2022.

In the agriculture sector, climate-related economic losses have reached an average of €73 bn a year worldwide. It is, hence, of utmost importance to act now to build a climate-resilient agricultural system by forecasting the future climate risk and implementing adaptation actions. Agriculture insurance plays a crucial role in promoting the resilience of the agricultural sector to external shocks, as it covers the production and financial risks of farmers, and related shortfall risks of interconnected stakeholders throughout the food chain. For a climate-proof agriculture, the insurance industry needs to evolve. Offering traditional coverage is becoming insufficient, with climate change unfolding its impact on the severity and frequency of extreme events.

We present a climate service for monitoring and forecasting the climate risk on crop and livestock production tailored to the needs of insurers providing agricultural coverage. The climate service has been developed and validated within the ESA-funded project TERRA - climaTe sERvices for a Resilient Agriculture, thanks to the engagement of key stakeholders in the whole value chain. The service is a risk assessment and monitoring tool based on a climate-enhanced vulnerability index. Such an index seamlessly integrates satellite data, reanalysis products and seasonal forecasts. In particular, it combines the level-2 variables from sentinel 1, 2 and 3, available through the Copernicus Global Land Service, in a unified vulnerability index, that is integrated with the reanalysis products and seasonal forecasts available through the Climate Data Store of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The climate-enhanced vulnerability index is applied to the specific case of forage production in Italy.

How to cite: Dal Gesso, S., Venturini, M., and Petitta, M.: Synergizing earth observations and seasonal forecasts within an innovative climate index: the case of forage production in Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12180, 2022.

To support the development of climate-resilient pathways, several developing countries are urged to strengthen their scientific base to generate climate and weather information, products and services. This is usually achieved by developing the capacity of national hydro-meteorological services (NMHS) and warning services, to support in turn adaptation planning for intermediary and final users.

In West Africa, several countries, have adopted National Framework of Climate Services (NFCS), with the support of the Global Framework of Climate Services (GFCS) secretariat. They operationalize these NFCS by implementing national or regional climate and weather information-based programs, supported by different international agencies. The ultimate goal of these programs is to enhance the service delivery and warnings to communities, by strengthening the “last mile” connectivity.

Burkina Faso, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Senegal, as well as the Economic Community of West African Sates (ECOWAS) organization itself benefit from the support of international agencies, to tackle the food insecurity and recurrent storm flooding issues they face. By enhancing the institutional capacities of their NHMS and other relevant institutions, including their disaster management authorities and early warning system for food security management agencies, the projects intend to solve the climate related food security crises, improve the short range forecasts for high impact weather and, generally speaking boost the uptake of climate information by the different stakeholders from different socio-economic sectors.

The underlying theory of change (ToC) for these programs is based on a systematic causal chain assuming that the improvement and modernization of the hydro meteorological systems and services of the countries, will result in the provision to communities and national users with adapted, accurate and timely weather, climate and hydrological information; taking advantage of these improvements, the national/regional enhanced institutions will then efficiently consider the demands of stakeholders at all levels of the country and adapt their offer accordingly.

This research is assessing the implementation of some NFCSs and "hydromet programs" running in West Africa. The preliminary results show that the causal chain of the ToC is not so straightforward. Even if opportunities exist in the region, challenges are still big. They range from lack of knowledge of the spectrum and diversity of stakeholders, their specific needs and demands that would inform their action, the broader sensitization to the use of the climate information and collection of their feedback on the services. These challenges suggest in particular that, the allocation of resources to weather in the public sector is unlikely to become more effective until the so called "weather prediction enterprise", takes an integrated perspective on weather forecasts, impacts and policy that provides decision makers with reliable information on the costs and benefits of alternative courses and make it easier for “outsiders” to penetrate that community, due to the required expertise.

How to cite: Kane, C.: National Frameworks for Climate Services in West Africa: Are we on the right pathway?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12229, 2022.

EGU22-13206 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Seasonal forecasts for hydropower: downscaling of precipitation in South American basins 

Verónica Torralba, Stefano Materia, Carmen Álvarez-Castro, Paolo Bonetti, Alberto Maria Metelli, Marcello Restelli, and Silvio Gualdi

Hydropower is one of the industrial sectors more strongly affected by the timing and intensity of extreme climatic conditions, especially related to precipitation. Particularly, the recent expansion of the hydropower capacity in South American regions has raised the interest of this sector in seasonal forecasts that can be used to anticipate persistent precipitation anomalies (e.g. meteorological droughts) over specific basins. Some of the limitations for the generation of seasonal forecast products that can be integrated in hydropower decision-making processes are the coarse spatial resolution and the limited forecast quality (i.e. systematic errors, low skill) of the current operational seasonal forecast systems. To overcome this problem, we propose a methodology based on machine learning-informed analogs. Information-theoretic preprocessing has been used to identify the large-scale drivers of precipitation in a drainage basin located in southern Brazil, where hydroelectric energy is produced. This information allows us to exploit the ability of the dynamical seasonal forecast systems to predict these large-scale drivers in combination with the statistical link between these drivers and precipitation. We have employed the global CMCC-SPS35 seasonal forecasts at 1° spatial resolution and the CHIRPS-V2 precipitation dataset at 0.05° to produce dynamical-statistical seasonal forecasts of precipitation. The results show that downscaled forecasts exhibit higher skill and are affected by smaller biases than those obtained directly from the operational dynamical systems. This suggests that there is potential for the use of hybrid forecasts in the optimal management of South Brazilian hydropower production. 

How to cite: Torralba, V., Materia, S., Álvarez-Castro, C., Bonetti, P., Metelli, A. M., Restelli, M., and Gualdi, S.: Seasonal forecasts for hydropower: downscaling of precipitation in South American basins, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13206, 2022.

EGU22-13357 | Presentations | CL5.1.1

Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector 

Chihchung Chou, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, Lluís Palma Garcia, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Marta Teixeira, Sara Silva, Natacha Fontes, Antonio Graça, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Sandro Calmanti, and Nube González-Reviriego

To strengthen the seasonal forecast adoption on the vine management, this work introduces an observation-forecast blending approach to wine-sector indicators over the Iberian Peninsula. Five bioclimatic indicators (temperature and precipitation based) were considered as highly important from the perspective of wine-sector users, and the predictions were prepared for each month of the growing season by combining with previous observations as the indicator period progressed. The performance of this approach was then assessed, for each initialization date throughout the entire growing season, with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Fair Ranked Probability Skill Score. The results show a marked increase in the skill metrics during the growing season from the early combinations for all the indicators. This progressive improvement of the forecasting skill provides the users with an opportunity to ponder anticipation and confidence when finding the best moment to make a specific decision and, thus, to improve their management. Meanwhile, the environmental impact could be reduced with the thoughtful application derived from the customised knowledge of climate information

How to cite: Chou, C., Marcos-Matamoros, R., Palma Garcia, L., Pérez-Zanón, N., Teixeira, M., Silva, S., Fontes, N., Graça, A., Dell'Aquila, A., Calmanti, S., and González-Reviriego, N.: Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13357, 2022.

EGU22-1075 | Presentations | CL5.1.2 | Highlight

Points of no return to respect the Paris Agreement 

Thomas Bossy, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, and Franck Lecocq

The physical reality of the Earth system implies that there are clear conditions to respect the Paris agreement, or to limit any climate impact below a certain level. To be policy relevant, these conditions should be expressed in terms of emission targets, such as peaking date, budget, or annual value of global CO2 emissions. They have been explored by the IPCC using integrated assessment models. However, past work has focused on bottom-up scenarios, and on temperature as the only metric evaluating climate impacts, even though not all impacts are linearly related to it.

Here, we show that for these emission targets, across thousands of scenarios we have generated, there are points of no return after which limiting a given climate impact becomes geophysically infeasible. In addition to the Paris Agreement objectives (consisting of a 1.5 °C temperature target above pre-industrial (PI) era possibly overshot by no more than 0.5°C), we investigate three other climate targets:  ocean acidification, sea-level elevation rate, and Arctic sea-ice melting. We use a newly developed model called PathFinder; a reduced-form carbon-climate model that also emulates the three global climate impacts we investigate. The model is calibrated through Bayesian inference, using outputs from the state-of-the-art CMIP6 models as prior parameters, and the latest IPCC assessment and observations of the Earth system as constraints. This advanced calibration is enabled by the model’s capacity of using temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration as inputs (instead of anthropogenic emissions and non-CO2 radiative forcing).

Thanks to this backward approach, we demonstrate that, for every emission target considered, the combination of climate impact targets is non-linear. While the Paris Agreement insists on the importance of reaching a carbon neutral world in 2050, our results show that global CO2 emissions must peak before 2030 but do not have to reach net-zero to keep all targets reachable with at least 50% chances. We also highlight the inevitable role of geoengineering technologies in reaching the Paris Agreement, as chances to keep it reachable goes from at least 69% if SRM or CDR are available to 10% if none of them is.

How to cite: Bossy, T., Gasser, T., Ciais, P., Tanaka, K., and Lecocq, F.: Points of no return to respect the Paris Agreement, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1075, 2022.

EGU22-3961 | Presentations | CL5.1.2 | Highlight

ClimateBench: A benchmark for data-driven climate projections 

Duncan Watson-Parris, Yuhan Rao, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Peer Nowack, Gustau Camps-Valls, Philip Stier, Shahine Bouabid, Maura Dewey, Emilie Fons, Jessenia Gonzalez, Paula Harder, Kai Jeggle, Julien Lenhardt, Peter Manshausen, Maria Novitasari, Lucile Ricard, and Carla Roesch

Exploration of future emissions scenarios mostly relies on one-dimensional impulse response models, or simple pattern scaling approaches to approximate the physical climate response to a given scenario. Such approaches are unable to reliably predict climate variables which respond non-linearly to emissions or forcing (such as precipitation) and must rely on heavily simplified representations of e.g., aerosol, neglecting important spatial dependencies.

Here we present ClimateBench - a benchmark dataset based on a suite of CMIP, AerChemMIP and DAMIP simulations performed by NorESM2, and a set of baseline machine learning models that emulate its response to a variety of forcers. These surrogate models can skilfully predict annual mean global distributions of temperature, diurnal temperature range and precipitation (including extreme precipitation) given a wide range of emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and spatially resolved aerosol. We discuss the accuracy and interpretability of these emulators and consider their robustness to physical constraints such as total energy conservation. Future opportunities incorporating such physical constraints directly in the machine learning models and using the emulators for detection and attribution studies are also discussed. This opens a wide range of opportunities to improve prediction, consistency and mathematical tractability.

We hope that by defining a clear baseline with appropriate metrics and providing a variety of baseline models we can bring the power of modern machine learning techniques to bear on the important problem of efficiently and robustly sampling future climates.

How to cite: Watson-Parris, D., Rao, Y., Olivié, D., Seland, Ø., Nowack, P., Camps-Valls, G., Stier, P., Bouabid, S., Dewey, M., Fons, E., Gonzalez, J., Harder, P., Jeggle, K., Lenhardt, J., Manshausen, P., Novitasari, M., Ricard, L., and Roesch, C.: ClimateBench: A benchmark for data-driven climate projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3961, 2022.

EGU22-5034 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

Emulating spatially resolved annual maximum temperatures of Earth system models using MESMER-X 

Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, Lea Beusch, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia Seneviratne

Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs, in that they provide climate information with reduced computational costs. However, climate extremes, one of the most impactful consequences of climate change, remain challenging to emulate in all of their aspects. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties and correlation in space and time. The Modular Earth System Model Emulator for Regional eXtremes (MESMER-X) is based on sampling from the generalized extreme value distribution and we show quantitatively that the resulting emulations of annual maximum temperature can reproduce the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying ESM simulations. Given the general design of the emulator and the good performances for annual maximum temperatures, the proposed methodology can be applied to other indicators of climate extremes, illustrated here with an indicator of fire weather.

How to cite: Quilcaille, Y., Gudmundsson, L., Beusch, L., Hauser, M., and Seneviratne, S.: Emulating spatially resolved annual maximum temperatures of Earth system models using MESMER-X, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5034, 2022.

EGU22-5223 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

The Regional Fractional Energy Balance Equation: Projections to 2100 

Roman Procyk and Shaun Lovejoy

We present the fractional energy balance equation (FEBE) which is a generalization of the standard EBE. The FEBE can be derived either from Budyko–Sellers models or phenomenologically by applying the scaling symmetry to energy storage processes. It is easily implemented by changing the integer order of the storage (derivative) term in the EBE to a fractional value near 1/2. 

The model used a Bayesian framework based on historical temperatures and natural and anthropogenic forcing series for parameter estimation. Significantly, the error model was not ad hoc, rather predicted by the model itself: the internal variability response to white noise internal forcing, a fraction Relaxation noise (fRn). Due to computational constraints, we employ a block bootstrapping method to calculate the likelihoods of our parameters in the Bayesian scheme. Notably we estimate the regional relaxation time directly from empirical data, generally it is calculated for various discrete surface types using heat capacities or globally from fitting a two-box model to GCM outputs, which to the authors knowledge has not been estimated prior to this study. 

The FEBE historical reconstructions (1880–2020) closely follow observations (notably during the “slowdown”, 1998–2015). We also reproduce the internal variability with the FEBE and statistically validate this against centennial scale temperature observations. We show the FEBE to plausibly reproduce the annual cycle at monthly resolution, in particular to explain the lag between the temperature maximum and the maximum in the radiative forcing. 

Using the calibrated FEBE we made temperature projections to 2100 using both the Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, shown alongside the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP) 5 and 6 multi-model ensemble (MME) at global and regional scales.  

How to cite: Procyk, R. and Lovejoy, S.: The Regional Fractional Energy Balance Equation: Projections to 2100, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5223, 2022.

EGU22-5538 | Presentations | CL5.1.2 | Highlight

Thermal response timescales and associated spatial patterns in ESMs to pulse injections of climate forcers 

Susanne Baur, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray

The Earth system response to climate forcers can be broken down to multiple timescales, with the land surface responding within a few years to a change in forcing while the deep ocean layers have only fully equilibrated after several hundreds to thousands of years. In this work we assume that there is a number of distinct timescales represented in the thermal response to pulse injections of different climate forcers in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models (ESMs), which can be estimated by fitting a sum of decaying exponential responses  to a set of non-noisy Empirical Orthogonal Functions of each model. Using these exponential decay functions and a regression-based pattern scaling approach we are able to emulate the gridded transient surface temperature response to an input forcing timeseries. We determine that for the abrupt-4xCO2 experiment the thermal response in most CMIP6 ESMs can be represented by a similar set of timescales, but early results suggest diverse spatial warming patterns. This work introduces the concept that the evolving spatial patterns associated with the thermal response on different timescales for pulse injections of different climate forcers can be simply and accurately emulated and ultimately be used to predict transient simulations.

How to cite: Baur, S., Sanderson, B., Séférian, R., and Terray, L.: Thermal response timescales and associated spatial patterns in ESMs to pulse injections of climate forcers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5538, 2022.

EGU22-6304 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

Observation-Consistent Nonlinear Ice Interactions in an Efficient Earth Systems Model and their Implications for Sea-Level Projections 

Sandy Avrutin, Philip Goodwin, Ivan Haigh, and Robert Nicholls

Sea level rise is a major result of climate change that threatens coastal communities and has the potential to incur annual costs by 2100 of $11-95 billion in flood damages alone, assuming a global mean sea level rise of 25-123 cm (Hinkel et al. 2014). Projecting sea level rise as temperatures rise is therefore crucial for policy and decision-making.

The two methods currently used to project future sea level change are process-based modelling and semi-empirical modelling. Process-based models rely on combining outputs from coupled atmosphere/ocean models for each component of sea level rise. Semi-empirical models calculate sea level as an integrated response to either warming or radiative forcing, using parameters constrained from past observations.

Historically, there is little agreement in sea-level projections between these two methods (Orlić and Pasarić, 2013). One potential source of the discrepancies is uncertainty in land ice response to warming; although nonlinearities exist within processes affecting this response, most existing semi-empirical models treat the relationship between warming and ice-melt as linear.

Non-linear processes in sea level rise may have not yet affected the observational record (such as tipping points as future warming crosses some threshold) or may have already occurred (such as non-linear effects that apply across all levels of warming, or for which the threshold has been passed). Here, we examine the effect on semi-empirical projections of sea level rise of nonlinearities that have already affected the observed sea level record, by adding a nonlinear term to the relationship between warming and the rate of sea level rise within a large ensemble of historically constrained efficient earth systems model simulations.

Projections reach a median sea level rise of 0.47m by 2100 following SSP245, and 0.77m by 2100 following SSP585. Preliminary results suggest that nonlinear interactions in each ensemble member can be sublinear, superlinear or 0, with a mainly symmetrical distribution – although there are high-end, low-probability superlinear interactions up to 3x greater than low-end sublinear. Thus, we find that observation-consistent nonlinear interactions in the model configuration lead to insignificant differences in sea level rise by 2300 over the entire ensemble. However, it is key to note that nonlinear interactions that have not yet occurred but that may occur in the future, are not considered – these will lead to an increased projection of sea level rise by 2300 if not earlier (e.g. DeConto and Pollard, 2016).

References

  • Hinkel, J. et al. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 111, 3292–3297 (2014).
  • Kopp, R. E. et al. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites. Earth’s Future. 2, 383–406 (2014).
  • Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. C. & Grinsted, A. How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100? Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, 1–5 (2010).
  • Orlić, M. & Pasarić, Z. Semi-empirical versus process-based sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 735–738 (2013).

How to cite: Avrutin, S., Goodwin, P., Haigh, I., and Nicholls, R.: Observation-Consistent Nonlinear Ice Interactions in an Efficient Earth Systems Model and their Implications for Sea-Level Projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6304, 2022.

EGU22-6346 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

A New Statistical Reduced Complexity Climate Model 

Mikkel Bennedsen, Eric Hillebrand, and Siem Jan Koopman

In this paper, we propose a new, fully statistical, reduced complexity climate model. The starting point for our model is a number of physical equations for the global climate system, which we show how to cast in non-linear state-space form. The resulting model incorporates measurement errors, capturing the fact that observations of physical quantities might be contaminated by error, as well as internal stochastic error processes, capturing the fact that the physical equations used are approximations to the true underlying  climate system. The state-space formulation allows for statistical estimation of the parameters in the model, using the method of maximum likelihood, as well as filtering and smoothing of latent quantities in the model, such as ocean and surface temperatures. Further, the explicit statistical formulation of the model allows for conducting a number of useful analyses, such as the estimation of parameter uncertainty, model selection, and probabilistic scenario analysis. 

 

By considering a range of different scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, we set up simulation studies that can be used to investigate  the effect that a given scenario has on parameter estimates. We find substantial differences in the performance of the estimation procedure, depending on the precise scenario considered. These investigations can help decide what kind of data are best suited for estimating/calibrating the parameters of reduced complexity climate models, e.g. to what extend the historical data record can be used to reliably estimate parameters and/or which CMIP experiments are best suited for calibrating such models.

 

Using a data set of historical observations from 1959-2020, we estimate the model and report key parameter estimates and associated standard errors. A likelihood ratio test sheds light on the most appropriate equation for converting the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (GtC) into forcings (W/m2). We then use the estimated model and assumptions on future greenhouse gas emissions to project global mean surface temperature out to the year 2100. The statistical nature of the model allows us to attach uncertainty bands to the projections, as well as quantify how much of the uncertainty is "aleatoric" (uncertainty arising from the internal variability of the climate system) and how much is "epistemic" (uncertainty arising from unknown model parameters). We find that epistemic uncertainty is by far the most important contributor to the uncertainty on the projected future global temperature increase.

How to cite: Bennedsen, M., Hillebrand, E., and Koopman, S. J.: A New Statistical Reduced Complexity Climate Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6346, 2022.

EGU22-6522 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

New features, broader accessibility, and improved performance of the Hector v3 simple carbon/climate model 

Kalyn Dorheim, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Leeya Pressburger, Dawn Woodard, Skylar Gering, and Alexey Shiklomanov

Hector is a carbon/climate model capable of emulating Earth System Model outputs at the global scale and is able to reproduce historical observations well. Like other participating models of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project, Hector is a computationally efficient source of climate projections and thus has a wide range of applications such as scenario generation, coupling with integrated assessment models, outreach, education, and policy making. Hector version 3 includes a number of new features: carbon tracking, permafrost, improved land-ocean warming contrast, and a web browser-accessible interface. Here we summarize these developments and discuss how they improve the model’s performance and broaden its potential user base. 

How to cite: Dorheim, K., Bond-Lamberty, B., Pressburger, L., Woodard, D., Gering, S., and Shiklomanov, A.: New features, broader accessibility, and improved performance of the Hector v3 simple carbon/climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6522, 2022.

EGU22-7553 | Presentations | CL5.1.2 | Highlight

Predicting the land ice contribution to sea level rise with Gaussian process emulation 

Fiona Turner and Tamsin Edwards

Changes in the cryosphere are the leading component of global sea level rise. There is great uncertainty in what these changes will look like in the coming centuries, partly due to the unknown effects of the climate and ice sheet models used to model these changes. Modelling these contributions are necessary to understand how coastal communities and low-lying states will be affected by climate change; in order to do this, and to quantify the inherent uncertainties to make more informed estimates, statistical methods are required.

 

Here we describe our work building on Edwards et al. (2021) in the use of Gaussian process emulators to predict the land ice contribution to future sea level rise. Rather than building an emulator of an ensemble of ice sheet models, we emulate each model individually, allowing us to better understand the inherent biases and internal variability within each model. We then compare our combined estimates with our previous results to test how treating each model individually affects our predictions. 

 

We predict changes for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), to investigate how different future levels of greenhouse emissions will affect sea level rise this century. We also explore differences in sensitivity of the models to different inputs, building a range of sea level predictions. In particular, sensitivity to the basal melt parameter in Antarctica has a significant effect on the upper tail of our distributions; further analysis of other inputs will also be explored. 

How to cite: Turner, F. and Edwards, T.: Predicting the land ice contribution to sea level rise with Gaussian process emulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7553, 2022.

EGU22-8001 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

Global Mean Surface Temperature Projection Constrained by Historical Observations 

Jingying Zhou Lykke, Mikkel Bennedsen, and Eric Hillebrand
In this paper, we propose a state space representation (EBM-SS model) of the two-component energy balance model (EBMs). The EBM-SS model incorporates three extensions to the two-component EBM. First, we include ocean heat content (OHC) as a measurement of the temperature in the deep ocean layer. Second, we decompose the latent state of radiative forcing into a natural component and an anthropogenic component. The anthropogenic component is modeled as a random walk process with a local linear trend to represent the deterministic and stochastic trends of anthropogenic forcing, while the natural component captures the variations in solar irradiance and transitory episodes in forcing following major volcanic eruptions. Lastly, we use multiple GMST anomaly data sources from separate research groups as measurements for the latent state -- the temperature in the mixed layer in the two-component EBM. 
We estimate the EBM-SS model using observations at the global level during the period 1955 -- 2020 by maximum likelihood. We show in empirical estimation and in simulations that using multiple data sources for the latent process reduces parameter estimation uncertainty. When fitting eight global mean surface temperature anomaly observational series, the physical parameter estimates are comparable to those obtained by using datasets from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP 5) in other literature.  We find that using this set of parameter estimates, the GMST projection results under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios considerably agree with the outputs from the climate emulator Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) 7.5 and CMIP 5 models. We show that utilizing a simple climate model and historical records alone can produce meaningful GMST projections.

How to cite: Lykke, J. Z., Bennedsen, M., and Hillebrand, E.: Global Mean Surface Temperature Projection Constrained by Historical Observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8001, 2022.

EGU22-9163 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

Bayesian Inference of Climate Parameters Using Multibox EBMs 

Maybritt Schillinger, Beatrice Ellerhoff, Kira Rehfeld, and Robert Scheichl

Reliable climate projections in face of global warming require a firm and detailed understanding of climate variability. Variations in climate can be externally-forced, for example by anthropogenic emissions, or internally-generated, for example from chaotic atmosphere and ocean dynamics. To investigate the climatic response to radiative forcing, a common concept is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Many studies estimate the ECS by fitting simple energy balance models (EBMs) to observational data. This approach has benefitted from advances in numerical analysis and statistics, enabling a fully Bayesian analysis. Via Bayes theorem, it quantifies the probability of certain climate parameters given observations, for example of surface temperature. To this end, it combines the goodness of the model fit with assumptions on measurement errors and climate variability as well as prior information. Here, we analyse and discuss Bayesian inference of climate parameters such as ECS from global mean temperatures using multibox EBMs. We therefore present an R package which relies on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and includes an extension of the one-box model with a time-dependent feedback parameter. Using measurements from the instrumental period as well as temperature reconstructions and model data from the last millennium, we validate and demonstrate the package. We find that the two-box model performs significantly better in fitting the observations than the one-box model, and generates 21st century projections that agree more closely with AR5 estimates. Further, we evaluate the robustness of the estimate against uncertainties in temperature and forcing data through synthetic experiments. To this end, we quantify how estimation errors depend on the strength of noise in temperature data and compare the influence of dating and amplitude uncertainties in forcing reconstructions. In summary, we provide an effective tool for Bayesian estimation of climate parameters and elaborate its potential for studying the response to external forcing.  

How to cite: Schillinger, M., Ellerhoff, B., Rehfeld, K., and Scheichl, R.: Bayesian Inference of Climate Parameters Using Multibox EBMs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9163, 2022.

EGU22-9739 | Presentations | CL5.1.2 | Highlight

Assessing the consistency of institutional pathways with the Paris Agreement 

Gaurav Ganti, Robert J. Brecha, Robin D. Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Bill Hare, Jared Lewis, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Christopher J. Smith, and Matthew J. Gidden

Scientifically rigorous guidance to policy makers on mitigation options for meeting the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal requires an evaluation of long-term global-warming implications of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Here, we present a uniform and transparent methodology to evaluate the climate outcome, and hence the Paris Agreement consistency of influential institutional emission scenarios from the grey literature, including those from the International Energy Agency1,2, BP3, and Shell4. We first identify challenges to performing such an assessment and then proceed to outline a sequence of steps to address these challenges by harmonizing5 all emissions to a consistent base-year (2010), extending all pathways to 2100, and filling in missing emission species6. We employ two simple climate models, MAGICC7 and FaIR8,9 to assess peak and end-of-century temperatures, and find that few published scenarios that claim to be compatible with the Paris Agreement are so.

 

References

 1. International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2020. (2020).

2. International Energy Agency. Net Zero by 2050 - A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. (2021).

3. BP. Global Energy Outlook 2020. (2020).

4. Shell. The Energy Transformation Scenarios. (2021) 

5. Gidden, M. J. et al. A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models. Environ. Model. Softw. 105, 187–200 (2018)

6. Lamboll, R. D., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Kikstra, J. S., Meinshausen, M. & Rogelj, J. Silicone v1.0.0 : an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research. Geosci. Model Dev 13, 5259–5275 (2020)

7. Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B. & Wigley, T. M. L. Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 1: Model description and calibration. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1417–1456 (2011).

8. Smith, C. J. et al. FAIR v1.3: A simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model. Geosci. Model Dev. 11, 2273–2297 (2018)

9. Millar, J. R., Nicholls, Z. R., Friedlingstein, P. & Allen, M. R. A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 17, 7213–7228 (2017).

How to cite: Ganti, G., J. Brecha, R., D. Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z., Hare, B., Lewis, J., Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., J. Smith, C., and J. Gidden, M.: Assessing the consistency of institutional pathways with the Paris Agreement, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9739, 2022.

EGU22-11049 | Presentations | CL5.1.2 | Highlight

A spatially explicit approach for joint temperature-precipitation emulation of Earth System Model simulation 

Sarah Schöngart, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleußner, Sonia Seneviratne, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Lea Beusch

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the dynamics of our climate system, but their computational costs make nuanced investigations of future climatic conditions difficult. Using statistical techniques, computationally efficient tools known as emulators, which mimic ESM simulations, can be built. Emulators allow to (i) project the regional climate change for a broad variety of emission scenarios and to (ii) thoroughly sample the uncertainty space associated with natural variability as well as structural model uncertainties. Both tasks would be computationally infeasible with actual ESMs. In this contribution, we introduce a probabilistic, bivariate ESM emulation framework that produces joint monthly spatial fields of temperature and precipitation for a given global mean temperature trajectory. This contribution adds to the existing modular MESMER framework developed by Beusch et al. (2020). The building blocks of the new emulator are: (i) A module for approximating the annual global mean temperature trajectory from ESM output. This module is adapted from the existing MESMER framework. (ii) A module capturing the deterministic local response of monthly temperature and precipitation to global mean temperature. The response function is assumed to be linear with coefficients fitted independently for each month, grid-cell and variable. (iii) A module capturing the residual variability, that follows a probabilistic, non-parametric approach to reproduce spatial and temporal variance, covariance and cross-covariance structures of both variables. The emulator is trained and tested on ESM ensembles generated during CMIP6. Near-term development steps include the quantification of inter-ESM differences through the trained parameters and the coupling of the emulator to the simple climate model MAGICC (Meinshausen et al., 2020) to explore the emission scenario space.

 

Beusch, Lea, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne. "Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land." Earth System Dynamics 11.1 (2020): 139-159.

Meinshausen, Malte, et al. "The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500." Geoscientific Model Development 13.8 (2020): 3571-3605.

 

How to cite: Schöngart, S., Lejeune, Q., Schleußner, C.-F., Seneviratne, S., Gudmundsson, L., and Beusch, L.: A spatially explicit approach for joint temperature-precipitation emulation of Earth System Model simulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11049, 2022.

EGU22-11069 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

Metrics for Regional Climate Responses to Regional Pollutant Emissions 

Matthew Kasoar, Carlo Corsaro, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

The Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) and Absolute Global Precipitation change Potential (AGPP) are widely used climate change indices.  They can be applied quickly and easily to estimate the global mean temperature and precipitation responses to a pulse emission of a long-lived climate pollutant at a given time horizon, making them invaluable policy-relevant metrics.  They can also be extended to short-lived climate pollutants - where a sustained emission is more useful to consider than a pulse emission - by using their time-integrated forms (iAGTP and iAGPP).

However, these metrics are only useful when taking a global-average perspective, and do not allow us to account for the regional nature of either emissions or their climate response.  Although long-lived greenhouse gases induce a relatively homogeneous radiative forcing (RF) which is not sensitive to emission location, nonetheless due to transport of heat there is not a one-to-one correspondence between the RF in a region and the local temperature response.  Moreover when considering short-lived pollutants such as aerosols, the region of emission is potentially critical because the short lifetime of such pollutants results in an inhomogeneous distribution of RF.  Therefore, for both long-lived and short-lived pollutants the AGTP/AGPP (or iAGTP/iAGPP) are not adequate when looking at climate responses on a regional scale, even though this would be the most relevant when evaluating different policy scenarios or climate change impacts.

Here, we combine the results of simulations from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) where emissions (or concentrations) of multiple long- and short-lived climate pollutants were perturbed globally in nine different climate models, with the results of simulations using the HadGEM3 model where sulfate aerosol emissions are perturbed one at a time in several key geopolitical regions: the United States, Europe, India, East Asia, or the whole Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitudes.  We use these results to adapt the (i)AGTP/(i)AGPP to the case where both the emission and the response are regional.  Data from the regional HadGEM3 simulations allow us to estimate normalised regional forcing-response relationships for aerosols, whilst the PDRMIP multi-model means and ensemble spread are used to derive estimates of radiative efficiency for both long- and short-lived pollutants and their corresponding uncertainties, as well as the regional climate sensitivities for long-lived pollutants.

Finally, using these regional temperature and precipitation change potentials, we produce a simple model in Python which allows the user to specify arbitrary combinations of different future emission scenarios for different pollutants from different regions, allowing rapid projections of the regional climate responses to diverse emissions policies.

How to cite: Kasoar, M., Corsaro, C., and Voulgarakis, A.: Metrics for Regional Climate Responses to Regional Pollutant Emissions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11069, 2022.

EGU22-11514 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

A regional climate emulator to estimate glacial-interglacial changes over the Alps 

Emmanuele Russo, Jonathan Buzan, Guillaume Jouvet, Denis Cohen, and Christoph C. Raible

Glacier modelling of the Alpine region during past ice ages has received increasing attention in the recent years. Considering the complexity of the Alpine topography, high spatial resolution climate information is required for running glacier models over the area. However, continuous climatic signal at resolution higher than 10 km and covering several hundred thousand of years cannot be directly derived using dynamical climate models. Alternative strategies must be considered.

Here, a climate emulator providing monthly temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region, with a horizontal resolution of 2x2 km and covering the last 400’000 years at intervals of 100 years, is presented. The emulatorcombines a dynamical modelling chain of Earth  System Models (ESMs) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM) with different statistical modelling methods. The dynamical modelling chain delivers climate information at highest accuracy based upon physical prognostic equations for specific time slices. The subsequent statistical modelling uses these time slices as physically consistent boundaries and estimates the climate conditions in between them, thus generatinga long-term climate evolution.

A total of 19 climate model experiments are conducted for different time-slices of the considered study period, including also sensitivity tests with changes in the ice sheet height of the Northern Hemisphere and land cover type. Starting from a simple linear regression, a series of different statistical approaches is tested for building the emulator. An evaluation of the different versions is then conducted against one of the RCM time-slice experiments, left out in turns from the training set of the statistical model.

Results show robust skills of the emulator in the representation of temperature, whose changes are mainly driven by smooth variations in the seasonal pattern of insolation at different time-steps, already using a simple linear regression. For precipitation, non-linearities associated to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation seem to dominate, making the use of more complex statistical approaches more appropriate. Additional evaluation tests conducted using glacier modelling driven by the outputs of the developed emulator confirm its potential for reconstructing the ice extent over the Alpine region during the last ice ages.

How to cite: Russo, E., Buzan, J., Jouvet, G., Cohen, D., and Raible, C. C.: A regional climate emulator to estimate glacial-interglacial changes over the Alps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11514, 2022.

EGU22-12390 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

The updated CICERO Simple Climate Model – an open-source emulator contribution to the AR6 process 

Marit Sandstad, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, and Bjørn Hallvard Samset

The Cicero Simple Climate Model (CICERO-SCM) is an energy balance model originally developed around 20 years ago, in Fortran, that has since been in continuous use and subject to minor revisions to keep up with updated best estimates in the science. It was recently used as one of a suite of emulators linking Working Groups 1 and 3 of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. In this presentation, we outline the model and its key features and components and show its native projections of future climate following the SSP Pathways and its performance as an IPCC AR6 emulator. We also present a python port of the model that will shortly be made publicly available.

 

For AR6, CICERO-SCM was tuned to reproduce the surface temperature evolution assessed by Working Group 1, as well as a range of other parameters. For probabilistic uncertainty estimation, we built on the method of (Skeie et al. 2018) where a large set of observation based prior assumptions on ocean heat content and temperature change was ran through the model to create a large consistent set of parameters. In the AR6 process, this set of parameters was used as an initial pool of useable parameter sets. From there the AR6 statistical distributions of current temperature, ECS and aerosol forcing were used to create a parameter subset. As part of this effort, a python wrapper was developed and integrated into the openscm-runner framework, to go between the formats and setups of the AR6 inputs, and the setup expected by the Fortran based binary.

CICERO-SCM has recently been ported to python, and is currently being tested for public, open-source release. The base version will include tunable parameters and the possibility for running user generated scenarios and will form the basis for a number of planned extensions – notably regarding short-lived climate forcers and the interaction of anthropogenic climate change with natural variability.

How to cite: Sandstad, M., Skeie, R. B., and Samset, B. H.: The updated CICERO Simple Climate Model – an open-source emulator contribution to the AR6 process, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12390, 2022.

Simple climate models (SCMs) are most often composed of ad hoc parametric laws that emulate the behaviour of more complex Earth system models (ESMs). The emulation allows investigating experiments or scenarios that would be too costly to compute with ESMs. However, the “SCM” denomination refers to a fairly broad range of models whose complexity can go from a couple of boxes that only emulate one part of the climate system (e.g. a global temperature impulse response function) to hundreds or thousands of boxes representing the different cycles of greenhouse gases and induced climate change (e.g. the compact Earth system model OSCAR). Simpler models are easier and faster to solve, but they may not adequately represent physical processes. Therefore, finding the “simplest but not simpler” model depends on a study’s precise goals.

We developed the Pathfinder model to remedy a deficiency within the spectrum of existing SCMs. Pathfinder is a compilation of existing formulations describing the climate and carbon cycle systems, chosen for their balance between mathematical simplicity and physical accuracy. The resulting model is simple enough that it can be used with Bayesian inference algorithms for calibration, which enables integration of the latest data from CMIP6 Earth system models and the IPCC AR6, as well as a yearly update using observations of global temperature and atmospheric CO2. The model’s simplicity also enables coupling with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and their optimization algorithms, or simply running the model in a backward temperature-driven fashion. In spite of this simplicity, the model accurately reproduces behaviours and results from complex models – including uncertainty ranges – when ran following standardized diagnostic experiments.

Here, we will briefly describe the Pathfinder model, demonstrate its performance, and illustrate its strengths and potential with two example studies. The first one combines a very large-scale ensemble of climate change scenarios generated procedurally, and the physical uncertainty sampling extracted from the Bayesian calibration, to determine which future CO2 emissions pathways remain compatible with the Paris agreement. The second one couples Pathfinder with a stylized IAM and climate impact emulators, to generate cost-effective pathways that limit permafrost carbon thaw, sea level rise speed, and ocean surface acidification.

How to cite: Gasser, T.: Pathfinder: a simple yet accurate carbon-climate model to explore climate change scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12530, 2022.

EGU22-12999 | Presentations | CL5.1.2

A statistical framework to assess time trend and predict near-future climatic conditions 

Boris Faybishenko, Bhavna Arora, Dipankar Dwivedi, and Eoin Brodie

A statistical framework to assess the long-term climatic water balance changes includes the following phases of the data analysis and predictions: (1) Preparation of daily, monthly, and yearly averaged time series of meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, etc.), and an evaluation of the temporal structural breakpoints (breakthroughs) of meteorological parameters trends, (2) calculations of potential evapotranspiration, aridity index, actual evapotranspiration (ET), Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standard Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as well as an evaluation of breakthroughs of their trends, (3) climatic zonation based on the application of the hierarchical k-means and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) clustering of temporal trends of ET and SPEI for the periods before and after the breakthroughs, and (4) simple forecasting hierarchical time series for different forecasting situations.

The statistical framework was applied to 17 locations at the East River watershed for the period from 1966 to 2020. Structural changes of time trends of measured and calculated water balance parameters are used to determine the time of abrupt climatic changes and breakthroughs. Calculations of the evapotranspiration are conducted using the Budyko model, with the potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) calculated using the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. The results of calculations of ETo based on the PM model were compared to the ETo calculated using the Thornthwaite and Hargreaves equations. The results of the hierarchical clustering using ET and SPEI are illustrated using the tree dendrograms and the PCA plots of clusters of the studied sites for the periods of before and after the breakthroughs. A significant shift in the cluster arrangements for the time periods before and after the temporal structural breakpoints indicate that zonation patterns are driven by dynamic climatic processes, which are variable through time, and the watershed zonation requires periodic re-evaluation. Examples of time series forecasting are also shown.

How to cite: Faybishenko, B., Arora, B., Dwivedi, D., and Brodie, E.: A statistical framework to assess time trend and predict near-future climatic conditions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12999, 2022.

EGU22-254 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Laser-based stable isotopic analyses of carbonates to obtain high-resolution climatic signals and its application to understand Early Harappan climate 

Torsa Sengupta, Arati Deshpande-Mukherjee, Ravi Bhushan, and Anindya Sarkar

Laser-based online carbonate analyses open up a simple yet efficient way to explore high-resolution (~125 µm) investigation of different biogenic (viz. bivalves, fish otolith) and abiogenic (viz. speleothem, varves) carbonates for deciphering climatic signals. Stable isotopic sclerochronological analyses on biogenic carbonates that had formed in equilibrium with the ambient water effectively record the temporal changes in the environmental parameters like temperature, salinity and isotopic composition. Similar analysis on archaeological fossil assemblages helps to understand past climate, precipitation variability with respect to cultural changes observed in the archaeological site.

Dholavira, a UNESCO world heritage site, was a magnificent seven-staged Harappan metropolitan, situated within the Rann of Kutch, Gujarat, India. The city witnessed cultural evolution from Pre- to Post- Harappan (Indus valley civilisation) culture with some minor desertion periods during the late Mature- and early Late-Harappan stages. A previous study has already proposed an estuarine environment, with the presence of a glacial-fed river (ancient Indus distributary), which mixed with the intruding seawater in the Early Harappan Rann. Here, with the high-resolution laser-based technique, we further examined this proposition by analysing and deciphering monthly climatic changes from a 4.6 Kilo year old otolith of a migrating estuarine catfish, Arius dussumieri and a 5.2 Kilo year old freshwater bivalve, Parreysia corruguta. The ẟ18O of the otolith carbonate ranges from ~-9 ‰ to ~-1 ‰ (VPDB), corroborating the presence of a highly depleted (ẟ18Owater(VSMOW)~-12 ‰ ) freshwater river debouching into an ancient estuary during summer/monsoonal times. The enriched ẟ18O values during winter/ non-monsoonal months result due to evaporative enrichment, reduction in riverine discharge in the semi-enclosed estuarine environment. The winter migration of the fish into deeper water might enrich the otolith ẟ18O values further. The monthly climatic signal from the typically freshwater bivalve with a ẟ18O variation from ~-10 ‰ to ~-7 ‰ (VPDB) might indicate a presence of a freshwater body (lake/ponds?) receiving monsoonal recharge with ~-7 ‰ (VSMOW; compared to annual weighted modern ẟ18Oprecipitation(VSMOW) of -5 ‰) and a slight evaporative enrichment during winter months during Pre- to Early Harappan times. High-resolution climatic studies from different biogenic carbonates thus suggest that the agricultural society of Dholavira flourished in a more conducive environment with riverine discharges and slightly higher precipitation, in contrast to the present day inhabitable arid climate.

How to cite: Sengupta, T., Deshpande-Mukherjee, A., Bhushan, R., and Sarkar, A.: Laser-based stable isotopic analyses of carbonates to obtain high-resolution climatic signals and its application to understand Early Harappan climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-254, 2022.

The hydrology of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in South Africa has been an active area of research over the last six decades due to the richness of many proxy records and the high preservation potential of deposits of this age at sites recording human occupation. Here we review the merits of using a Weighted Average – Partial Least Squares regression on the archaeological charcoal records from Elands Bay Cave (EBC) and Boomplaas Cave (BPC) to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoclimate. These sites are both spatially and temporally ideal to track the changes in the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies – the proposed driver of the change in hydroclimate and have been used to infer LGM climate conditions. A database of the modern-day distribution of the taxa identified in the stratigraphy at EBC and BPC was created using the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, this was then paired with the modern climate data from WorldClim to perform a WA-PLS regression to reconstruct Mean Annual Temperature and Total Annual Precipitation. Many of the WA-PLS regressions reconstructed temperature differences from the LGM to present close to 5°C (consistent with regional records). The TAP reconstructions suggest decreased precipitation during the LGM at BPC and despite unrealistic values for the EBC charcoal record, they suggest higher TAP values during the LGM. The TAP reconstructions posed more problems and highlighted some major flaws in the reconstructions. When compared to the pollen record from EBC, MAT  reconstructions reflect the same trend however the TAP reconstructions from pollen indicate slightly lower TAP values during the LGM. Due to the nature of these records, there are some important differences that influence the outcomes of the reconstruction. These being the biases which exist within the records themselves and propagating through to the reference databases. With the use of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis, we can compare the modern distribution of the taxa and better understand what the reconstructions are reflecting and in some cases failing to reflect. While a WA-PLS regression is widely used for reconstructions, other regressions should be compared alongside it.

How to cite: Khumalo, W., Hare, V., Kirsten, K., Parkington, J., and Pickering, R.: Fossil charcoals as a means for reconstruction of past hydroclimate variability through the Last Glacial Maximum: a case study from two archaeological sites in the Winter and Year-round Rainfall Zones, South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-487, 2022.

EGU22-499 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Fires and forests: A reconstruction of Holocene fire-vegetation relationships in Central Yakutia, Siberia 

Ramesh Glückler, Rongwei Geng, Lennart Grimm, Izabella Baisheva, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Andrei Andreev, Thomas Böhmer, Stuart Vyse, Luidmila Pestryakova, and Elisabeth Dietze

The year 2021 set new records for wildfire extent in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in eastern Siberia, Russia. Wildfire seasons in this unique region, characterized by its deciduous boreal forest and permafrost landforms, are becoming more intense. Some fires are threatening local communities, while their smoke covers vast stretches of land every summer, posing health risks to people even in the distance. At the same time, the larch trees of the eastern Siberian boreal forest stabilize the permafrost soils below as guardians of a continental-scale storage of terrestrial carbon. It is still largely unknown how the current trend of wildfire intensification will develop in the future, and how it will modify the structure of the boreal forests within the next decades to centuries. However, even though needed for a well-founded evaluation of long-term impacts of changing fire regimes, data on past trends of wildfire activity still remains scarce in eastern Siberia.

Here, we present a new reconstruction of boreal fire and vegetation dynamics, spanning the last ca. 10.8 ka. Continuously analyzed macroscopic charcoal particles and a REVEALS-transformed pollen record from a sediment core from Lake Satagay (N 63.078, E 117.998) give insight into long-term trends and relationships between changes in fire regime and vegetation composition and coverage. The data indicates that modern larch-dominated forests co-exist with a lower severity fire regime, whereas early Holocene open larch-birch woodlands enabled increased charcoal accumulation and thus supported a higher severity fire regime. Considering the expected increase in tree mortality caused by wildfires and insect damage, likely to thin out currently denser tree stands, this fire-vegetation relationship suggests a potential upcoming positive feedback on intensifying fire regimes.

How to cite: Glückler, R., Geng, R., Grimm, L., Baisheva, I., Herzschuh, U., Kruse, S., Andreev, A., Böhmer, T., Vyse, S., Pestryakova, L., and Dietze, E.: Fires and forests: A reconstruction of Holocene fire-vegetation relationships in Central Yakutia, Siberia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-499, 2022.

EGU22-960 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

A new record of environmental proxies for Cueva Victoria, Spain 

Julia Homann, Inken Heidke, Michael Weber, Denis Schloz, and Thorsten Hoffmann

Secondary mineral deposits in caves, such as stalagmites, constitute valuable paleoclimate archives because they are largely protected from degradation due to stable in-cave conditions and can be precisely dated up to 600,000 years using 230Th/U-dating. [1] In addition to established climate proxies, such as stable isotopes and trace elements, organic proxies have become increasingly attractive in recent years for investigating local vegetation and soil dynamics. [2]

 

Lignin, a biopolymer, is one of the main constituents of higher plants and consists of three monomeric units: sinapyl-, coniferyl-, and coumaryl alcohol. Lignin can be degraded into its monomeric units by alkaline CuSO4-oxidation [3]. Determination of the ratios among different oxidation products in a speleothem allows the reconstruction of the type of vegetation above the cave [4].

 

Biomass burning events are major sources of atmospheric particulate matter that influences global and local climate. [5] Investigating fire proxies in paleoclimate archives may therefore help to determine the interactions of climate, hydrology, and fire activity. Levoglucosan, an anhydrosugar, naturally only originates from the combustion of cellulose and thus constitutes a biomass burning marker. To date, no data on levoglucosan in speleothems have been published, whereas the anhydrosugar has already been utilised in other paleoclimate archives, such as sediments and ice cores. [2,5]

 

Here we present preliminary results for samples from two flowstone cores from Cueva Victoria in south-eastern Spain. The investigated samples cover MIS 1 and 7-11. Speleothems from this cave are known to have grown in intervals for at least 450 000 years. [6] Due to the semi-arid climate in this region the speleothems have mostly grown during interglacials, thereby responding and documenting changes in paleoclimate. We aim to reconstruct vegetation changes, investigate the occurrence of fires, and compare the results with existing δ13C and δ18O data.

 

[1] D. Scholz, D. Hoffmann, Quat. Sci. J. 57 (2008) 52–76 [2] A. Blyth et al. Quat. Sci. Rev. 149 (2016) 1-17. [3] G. Yan, K. Kaiser, Anal. Chem. 90 (2018) 9289–9295. [4] C.N. Jex, G.H. et.al. Quat. Sci. Rev. 87 (2014) 46–59. [5] P. Yao et al. J. of Glaciology 59 (2013) 599-611 [5] V. O. Elias et al. Geochim. et Cosmochim. Acta 65 (2001) 267-272. [6] L. Gibert, C. Ferrandez-Canadell (eds) (2015) Geology and Paleontology of Cueva Victoria (Mastia 11–13). Cartagena: Ayuntamiento de Cartagena.

How to cite: Homann, J., Heidke, I., Weber, M., Schloz, D., and Hoffmann, T.: A new record of environmental proxies for Cueva Victoria, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-960, 2022.

EGU22-1370 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Abrupt lowstands of Laguna de Zoñar (southern Spain) during the Iberian Roman Humid Period recorded by stable isotopes of gypsum hydration water 

Lucía Martegani, Fernando Gázquez, Ana Moreno, Blas Valero-Garcés, Mario Morellón, Miguel Bartolomé, Celia Martín-Puertas, and Miguel Rodríguez-Rodríguez

Centimeter-thick layers of gypsum (CaSO4·2H2O) were deposited at the bottom of Laguna de Zoñar (Córdoba Province, southern Spain) from ~2120 to ~1900 cal yr BP [1], coinciding with the apogee of the Roman Empire in the Iberian Peninsula. The presence of gypsum deposits in lake sediments is generally interpreted as evidence of dry climatic periods in the past [2]; however, gypsum in Laguna de Zoñar formed during the so-called Iberian Roman Humid Period (IRHP, 2600-1600 cal yr BP), the wettest episode of the last 4000 years in the southern Iberian Peninsula. At present, the lake is fed by two springs (~3.5 and ~1.1 l/s on average) and direct rainfall, extends over 37 ha and is up to 15 m deep, being the deepest natural water body in this region. Water salinity is relatively low (~1 g/l), dominated by Cl-, SO42- and Na+ and it is undersaturated in gypsum (SIgyp<-1.9).

The oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) of lake waters are sensitive to long-term changes in hydrological conditions (e.g. relative humidity, evaporation/outflow ratio, etc.). Here we determine the isotopic composition of Laguna de Zoñar at the time of gypsum precipitation from stable isotopes of hydration water in this mineral. The δ18O and δ2H values of the paleo-lake at 2122, 2051 and 1897 cal yr BP were significantly higher (mean values of 9.7±0.2‰ and 31.2±0.5‰, respectively) than those of the modern lake waters (δ18O<4.5‰ and δ2H<4.1‰), suggesting that during some stages of the IRHP the evaporation/outflow ratio of the lake was much higher than at present.

From a paleoclimatic perspective, the gypsum layers in Laguna de Zoñar formed during the transition from the wettest stage of the IRHP (2400 to 2000 cal yr BP) to the subsequent relatively drier phase (2000 to 1600 cal yr BP) [1]. Our results suggest that the second half of the IRHP was drier than the previous and later stages of the late-Holocene in this region. Also, it is possible that, at least during some periods of the Roman occupation, the hydrological regime of the lake was artificially modified by diverting the feeding creeks for urban supply. This could explain the significant increase in water salinity that led to gypsum precipitation. In the southern Iberian Peninsula, where few permanent lakes are present, Laguna de Zoñar may have been an essential water source for the Roman development in the surrounding areas, including the nearby Roman city of Ipagrum (3 km away). Combined detailed archaeological surveys of the area and analyses of anthropogenic proxies at higher resolution in the core may help to solve the relative role of water diversion and short-term aridification phases during the last centuries of the Roman Age in Hispania.

 [1] Martín-Puertas, C. et al. (2008), The Holocene, 18, 907–921; [2] Evans, N.P. et al. (2018), Science, 361, 6401, 498-501.

 

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by project PY18-871 of the Junta de Andalucía. Dr. Fernando Gázquez acknowledges the Ramón y Cajal fellowship, RYC2020-029811-I.

 

How to cite: Martegani, L., Gázquez, F., Moreno, A., Valero-Garcés, B., Morellón, M., Bartolomé, M., Martín-Puertas, C., and Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M.: Abrupt lowstands of Laguna de Zoñar (southern Spain) during the Iberian Roman Humid Period recorded by stable isotopes of gypsum hydration water, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1370, 2022.

EGU22-2937 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Is charcoal reflectance a palaeofire intensity proxy? 

Alicja Bonk, Claire M. Belcher, and Wojciech Tylmann

Variations in wildfire are a hot topic due to concerns linked to the current climate crisis. Although an increasing number of studies focus on how the coupled climate and anthropogenic forcings influence fire frequency and behaviour in highly fire-prone regions, there has been less research in more temperate ecosystems.

Analyzing charcoal records yields insights into the fire regimes in a given area, including the fire frequency, type, and intensity. Recent research suggests that measuring the amount of light reflected from charcoals can provide information about the energy flux during the pyrolysis of plant material, which can be further translated into a proxy for fire intensity. To assess the use of reflectance as a post-fire tool for palaeofire intensity reconstructions, we used annually laminated (varved) sediment record from Lake Żabińskie, north-eastern Poland.

We provide both quantitative macrocharcoal, and charcoal reflectance measurements of individual charcoal particles as well as semi-quantitative morphotypes analysis. These data were compared with palynological analysis of the vegetation shifts and evidence for the impact of humans in the lake area. Our preliminary research indicates that lower reflectance measurements (mean value around 1%) most likely relate to the litter fires as the charcoals show features of biodegradation before the fire. Higher values (mean 1-3%) represent surface understory fires (undergrowth burning) while the highest reflectance values (mean >3%) can be related to the crown fires. Our measurements are the first of this kind in this part of the world.

How to cite: Bonk, A., Belcher, C. M., and Tylmann, W.: Is charcoal reflectance a palaeofire intensity proxy?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2937, 2022.

EGU22-2967 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Speleothem organic carbon isotopes as a novel tracer for terrestrial ecosystem change – new method developments 

Franziska A Lechleitner, Sarah Rowan, Jan Strähl, Martin Rauber, Susan Q Lang, and Sönke Szidat

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to anthropogenic climate change remains poorly understood and constitutes a major source of uncertainty in future climate projections. Stalagmites are a well-established terrestrial climate archive (Wong and Breecker, 2015), and may also serve as a sensitive recorder of surface ecosystem processes, as they are fed by dripping water that percolates through the soil zone. Coupled climate-ecosystem paleorecords from stalagmites could prove invaluable sources of information on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to past climatic shifts and their sensitivity to climate variability exceeding the instrumental range.

Here we present results from a method development study carried out at the Laboratory for the Analysis of Radiocarbon with AMS (LARA) at the University of Bern. Our results are based on a previous protocol by Lechleitner et al. (2019), which describes a rapid, low contamination method for carbon isotope analysis (δ13C and 14C) of the speleothem non-purgeable organic carbon (NPOC) fraction for small samples (<150 mg CaCO3). Decarbonation of acid digested carbonate samples is followed by wet chemical oxidation of the NPOC and analysis of the resulting headspace CO2 via mass spectrometry to determine its isotopic composition.

We have made significant progress in resolving the main issues that precluded the routine application of the method as presented in Lechleitner et al. (2019), namely incomplete removal of inorganic carbon from the sample solutions, and contamination from extraneous carbon at different method stages. Apart from an updated pre-cleaning protocol for stalagmite samples and extensive blank assessment, a new needle setup was installed, allowing reduction of the sample amount needed, and the CO2 flow is now being monitored during decarbonation to ensure complete removal of inorganic carbon prior to the oxidation step.

These results reiterate the great promise of this method to provide accurate, ecosystem-level information on past terrestrial environments at comparatively high temporal resolution.

 

References:

Lechleitner, F.A., Lang, S.Q., Haghipour, N., McIntyre, C., Baldini, J.U.L., Prufer, K.M., Eglinton, T.I., 2019. Towards organic carbon isotope records from stalagmites: coupled d13C and 14C analysis using wet chemical oxidation. Radiocarbon 61, 749–764. doi:10.1017/RDC.2019.35

Wong, C.I., Breecker, D.O., 2015. Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives. Quat. Sci. Rev. 127, 1–18. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.07.019

How to cite: Lechleitner, F. A., Rowan, S., Strähl, J., Rauber, M., Lang, S. Q., and Szidat, S.: Speleothem organic carbon isotopes as a novel tracer for terrestrial ecosystem change – new method developments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2967, 2022.

EGU22-3147 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

NAO control on the hydrology of Laguna Grande de Archidona (southern Spain) during the Iberian Roman Humid Period recorded by stable isotopes (δ18O and δD) of gypsum hydration water 

Fernando Gázquez, Aurora Castillo-Baquera, Antonio García-Alix, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Francisco Jiménez-Espejo, Lucia Martegani, and Miguel Rodríguez-Rodríguez

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a major effect on the modern precipitation patterns in the southern Iberian Peninsula and also controlled the hydroclimate of this region in the past [1,2]. The oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes (δ18O and δD) of lake waters are sensitive to long-term changes in hydrological conditions (e.g. relative humidity, evaporation/outflow ratio, etc.). Here we reconstruct the δ18O and δD values of Laguna Grande de Archidona Lake (Málaga Province, southern Spain) from the stable isotopes of hydration water of gypsum (CaSO4·2H2O) [3] that precipitated and deposited in the lake from 2.7 to 1.4 ka BP.

The maximum δ18O and δD of values of the lake water (7.8‰ and 23.9‰, respectively) were recorded at 2.7 ka BP (~700 BCE), suggesting that relatively dry conditions prevailed during the Early Iron Age in southern Iberia. Subsequently, the δ18O and δD of the lake decreased to minimum values (3.0 and -2.2‰, respectively) at 2.4 ka BP, during the early stages of the Iberian Roman Humid Period (~600 BCE to ~400 CE). A relatively arid phase was also recorded at 2.2 ka BP, which preceded a wetter stage at 2.0 ka BP. A longer drier phase occurred later on, from 1.6 ka to 1.4 ka BP, coinciding with the decline of the Western Roman Empire (395-476 CE).

The comparison of our paleo-humidity proxy with long-term NAO index [4] shows that the lake water was isotopically enriched during periods of persistent NAO+ mode, suggesting drier and more evaporative conditions and probably lake level lowstands. In contrast, lower δ18O and δD of values of the lake water occurred during periods of NAO- configuration, resulting in wetter and less evaporative conditions and lake level highstands. In summary, our results indicate that the hydrologic balance of Laguna Grande de Archidona during the Iberian Roman Humid Period was controlled by the strength of the long-term NAO and that stable isotopes of gypsum hydration water are a powerful tool for paleo-hydrologic reconstructions.

 

 

[1] Toney et al. (2020), Quat. Sci. Rev. 106395; [2] Martín-Puertas et al. (2009), Quat. Res. 71, 108–120; [3] Gázquez et al. (2018), Earth Plan. Sci. Lett. 48, 177–188; [4] Faust et al., (2016), Earth Plan. Sci. Lett. 435, 84-93.

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by projects PY18-871 and Retos P20_00059 of the Junta de Andalucía, the project CGL2017-85415-R of the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional FEDER and the project B-RNM-144-UGR18. Dr. Antonio García-Alix acknowledges the Ramón y Cajal fellowship, RYC-2015-18966. Dr. Fernando Gázquez acknowledges the Ramón y Cajal fellowship, RYC2020-029811-I.

How to cite: Gázquez, F., Castillo-Baquera, A., García-Alix, A., Jiménez-Moreno, G., Jiménez-Espejo, F., Martegani, L., and Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M.: NAO control on the hydrology of Laguna Grande de Archidona (southern Spain) during the Iberian Roman Humid Period recorded by stable isotopes (δ18O and δD) of gypsum hydration water, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3147, 2022.

EGU22-3598 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Glacial/Interglacial temperature signal in 2 km deep borehole Litoměřice, Czechia 

Jan Šafanda, Petr Dědeček, Tomáš Uxa, and Vladimír Čermák

Litoměřice borehole located in the Lowland of the Northern Czechia was drilled in 2007 to the depth of 2 km and repeatedly logged in the period 2007−2020. The analysis of the obtained data enabled us to reconstruct the temperature-depth record undisturbed by the drilling and to recognize a robust past climate signal. Whereas this signal is hidden by the temperature gradient variations caused by heterogeneous thermal properties of the sedimentary/volcanic rock strata in the uppermost 950 m, below this depth the temperature-depth profile clearly indicates a warming at the end of the last glacial. Numerical solution of the transient heat conduction equation shows that the temperature gradient increase by about 3 K/km observed in the homogenous mica schist section between 1000−1500 m depth is consistent with the ground surface temperature warming of about 10 K. The numerical simulations also suggest that the permafrost occurrence, at least in the coldest periods of the last glacial, was highly probable in the Central European lowlands.

How to cite: Šafanda, J., Dědeček, P., Uxa, T., and Čermák, V.: Glacial/Interglacial temperature signal in 2 km deep borehole Litoměřice, Czechia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3598, 2022.

EGU22-4159 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

A geoarchaeological approach for reconstructing last glacial temperatures using coupled isotopic analyses of fossil snails and stalagmites from limestone caves in Okinawa, Japan 

Ryuji Asami, Rikuto Hondo, Ryu Uemura, Masaki Fujita, Shinji Yamasaki, Chuan-Chou Shen, Chung-Che Wu, Xiuyang Jiang, Hideko Takayanagi, Ryuichi Shinjo, Akihiro Kano, and Yasufumi Iryu

We applied a new geoarchaeological method with two carbonate archives, which are fossil snails from Sakitari Cave and stalagmites from Gyokusen Cave, on Okinawa Island, Japan, to reconstruct surface air temperature changes over the northwestern Pacific since the last glacial period. Oxygen isotope ratios of modern and fossil freshwater snail shells were determined to infer annual and seasonal temperature variations. The observational and analytical data confirm that oxygen isotopic values of fluid inclusion waters in the stalagmite can be regarded as those of spring waters at the sites where snails lived. Our results indicate that the annual mean, summer, and winter air temperatures were lower by 67 °C at ca. 23 thousand years ago (ka) and 45 °C at ca. 1613 ka than those of the present day. Our reconstruction implies that surface air cooling was possibly two times greater than that of seawater around the Ryukyu Islands during the Last Glacial Maximum, which potentially enhanced the development of the East Asian summer monsoon during the last deglaciation. Considering the potential uncertainties in the temperature estimations, the climatic interpretations of this study are not necessarily definitive due to the limited number of samples. Nevertheless, our new geoarchaeological approach using coupled isotopic determinations of fossil snails and stalagmite fluid inclusion waters will be useful for reconstructing snapshots of seasonally resolved time series of air temperatures during the Quaternary.

How to cite: Asami, R., Hondo, R., Uemura, R., Fujita, M., Yamasaki, S., Shen, C.-C., Wu, C.-C., Jiang, X., Takayanagi, H., Shinjo, R., Kano, A., and Iryu, Y.: A geoarchaeological approach for reconstructing last glacial temperatures using coupled isotopic analyses of fossil snails and stalagmites from limestone caves in Okinawa, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4159, 2022.

EGU22-5017 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Tree-ring width as an indicator for hydroclimate variability in the Lower Danube region 

Viorica Nagavciuc, Cătălin-Constantin Roibu, Andrei Mursa, Marian Ionuț Știrbu, Ionel Popa, and Monica Ionita

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize climate variability and change prior to the instrumental record, in order to improve our estimates of climate extremes and to provide a baseline for climate change projections. Most of these reconstructions are focused on temperature, precipitation, and/or drought indices, and to a lesser extent to reconstruct streamflow variability. In this study, a regional tree-ring width chronology (i.e. Quercus petraea), from Caraorman forest (Danube Delta, Romania), was used to reconstruct the last ~250 years of annual (from November previous year to July current year) streamflow of the Lower Danube River. The obtained results indicate a stable and significant correlation between the measured tree-ring width from Caraorman forest and Danube streamflow at Ceatal Izmail hydrologic station situated in the south-eastern part of Europe. The statistical parameters of the reconstruction model confirm that our model is stable and robust, explaining 44.9 % of the variance of the Lower Danube streamflow over the period 1920 – 2013. Interannual streamflow variation for the analyzed period indicates 11 extremely high flow years, with streamflow greater than 9200 m3/s (1170, 1771, 1799, 1836, 1838, 1839, 1871, 1876, 1877, 1940, and 2010) and 11 extremely low flow years, with streamflow lower than 5200 m3/s (1750, 1753, 1753, 1773, 1794, 1832, 1843, 1882, 1921, 1964, and 1994). The influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the TRW variability was analyzed using the composite maps of the geopotential height at 500 mb (Z500) and sea surface temperature (SST). High TRW values (e.g. high streamflow periods) from the Caraorman forest are associated with a low-pressure system centered over Europe and positive SST anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean and negative SST anomalies over the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas. These large-scale conditions favor the advection of moist air from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea towards the south-eastern part of Romania, which in turn leads to high precipitation rates over this region. Opposite to this, low TRW values (e.g. low streamflow periods) are associated with a high-pressure system centered over Europe, a northward shift of the storm tracks and negative SST anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean, and positive SST anomalies over the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas. Based on our results we argue that the reconstruction of river streamflow data based on the tree-ring width has important scientific and practical implications for a better understanding of the streamflow variation of the past, necessary for water resource management, and environmental-hydrological protection.

How to cite: Nagavciuc, V., Roibu, C.-C., Mursa, A., Știrbu, M. I., Popa, I., and Ionita, M.: Tree-ring width as an indicator for hydroclimate variability in the Lower Danube region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5017, 2022.

EGU22-5061 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Monitoring annual snail activity cycles: field-testing paleoenvironmental assumptions 

Ola Kwiecien, Sebastian Breitenbach, and Magdalena Kozielska

Like many of our fellow geoscientists, the early 2020 outbreak of the COVID pandemic caught us moving countries and universities. With field work cancelled and access to laboratories restricted, many research projects came to a pause. Working from home in a new, and not yet explored scientific and (sub)urban landscape presented serious challenges but also previously overlooked opportunities.

Here we report the results of a nearly two-year long monitoring of local temperature and isotopic composition of precipitation coupled with observations on the activity of the brown garden snail (Cornu aspersum) in Great Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, northeastern UK. Land snail shells are often used as archives of past environmental conditions (temperature and/or precipitation), but untested assumptions on when they form their shells might bias the interpretation. Snails precipitate their carbonate shell only during the active growth phases, while they remain dormant when conditions are too cold (hibernation) or too dry (aestivation). Thus, depending on the regional/ local conditions snail shells constitute a seasonally biased environmental archive, but this fact is often either oversimplified or completely overlooked.

The Köppen-Geiger climate classification defines UK climate as oceanic (Cfb temperate climate without dry season, but warm summers). Northeast England experiences maximum temperatures in summer (JJA) and lowest in winter (DJF), whereas precipitation is relatively homogenously distributed throughout the year, with highest rainfall in autumn and winter (SONDJF). Our local observations confirm that C. aspersum is most active during the night and directly after rainfall. As expected, the Great Park snail population does not aestivate during summer but hibernates in winter, starting when temperatures drop below ca. 7°C in late November. Contrary to expectations, the emergence from hibernation does not seem to be temperature- but precipitation-driven, and commences after the first heavy rainfall in May, independent of air temperature. Our ongoing monitoring work calls for careful assessment when interpreting the isotopic composition of fossil shells in terms of mean annual conditions.

How to cite: Kwiecien, O., Breitenbach, S., and Kozielska, M.: Monitoring annual snail activity cycles: field-testing paleoenvironmental assumptions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5061, 2022.

EGU22-5083 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Problems and Solutions: brGDGTs distributions and calibrations for semi-arid environments and application to the wetlands of the Southern Caucasus. 

Amy Cromartie, Mary Robles, Sébastien Joannin, Lucas Dugerdil, Odile Peyron, and Guillemette Ménot
The arid and semi-arid mountainous environment of the Southern Caucasus lies between the Black and Caspian Sea with elevations from below sea level to over 5000 m asl and has annual temperatures from -6˚ to 16˚C and precipitation between 200 - 2200 mm a year. Due to the large elevation changes in this mountainous zone, temperature and precipitation shifts occur quickly over short distances. The semi-arid regions here host a number of wetland contexts available for paleo-environmental research. However, recent investigations of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) records from a large wetland from the region note the changes in wetland development, from lake to peatland, impact the distribution of brGDGTs and the temperature reconstructions (Robles et al. 2022). To overcome these challenges Robles et al. (2022) applied a combination of global lake and soil calibrations to each section. New research on smaller wetlands, however, have found that these wetland transformations are not always as well defined and include periods of erosional soil inputs, open lake contexts, and eventual transformation to a wetland. In addition, soils from the region record a similar trend found in Gao et al., (2021) who found a temperature relationship with the MBT'6me suggesting the MBT'5me reconstructions do not fully capture the temperature profile. To address these issues we propose two avenues to reconstruct temperature and present our results. First, we evaluate the feasibility of utilizing a stepwise selection model for local configuration based on mixed samples (lake, wetland, soils) to overcome problems with changes in sediment overtime while capturing the temperature relationships between both the 5-methyl and 6-methyl brGDGT groups. Second, we utilize a probability based machine learning approach to estimate changes in source sediment distribution as the wetland transitions through time. We test both of these applications on downcore wetland sediments to evaluate our results. These results are compared with pollen reconstructions, aquatic pollen, non-pollen polymorphs, and XRF data in order to evaluate their success. We find that both methods can help provide better information for reconstructions.
 

Robles, Mary, et al. "Impact of climate changes on vegetation and human societies during the Holocene in the South Caucasus (Vanevan, Armenia): A multiproxy approach including pollen, NPPs and brGDGTs." Quaternary Science Reviews 277 (2022): 107297. 

Guo, Jingjing, et al. "Soil pH and aridity influence distributions of branched tetraether lipids in grassland soils along an aridity transect." Organic Geochemistry (2021): 104347. APA  

 

How to cite: Cromartie, A., Robles, M., Joannin, S., Dugerdil, L., Peyron, O., and Ménot, G.: Problems and Solutions: brGDGTs distributions and calibrations for semi-arid environments and application to the wetlands of the Southern Caucasus., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5083, 2022.

EGU22-5109 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Temporal and spatial variability of isotopic and hydrochemical parameters in cave drip-water feeding stalagmites: a case study from SE Slovenia 

Sonja Lojen, Tea Zuliani, Klara Nagode, Polona Vreča, Tjaša Kanduč, Jure Tičar, Matija Zorn, and Matej Lipar

The accuracy and uncertainty of paleoclimate interpretations of geochemical and isotopic proxies from stalagmites depend critically on how accurately isotopic signals are transmitted through the vadose zone of the aquifer and how the elemental composition of the groundwater feeding the stalagmite changes as it passes through the aquifer.

Results of the first year (2021) of drip-water monitoring at 15 drip sites in the Jama v Dovčku Cave in SE Slovenia are presented. Cumulative monthly samples were analysed for δ18O of water, δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), elemental composition of drip-water and concentration and δ13C of CO2 in the cave atmosphere. While the seasonal variability of δ18O of precipitation in 2021 at the nearest meteorological station exceeded 10 ‰ (from –15.42 ‰ in January to –5.28 in June), the intra-annual variability of δ18O of drip-water was reduced to 0.18–1.28 ‰ and showed no correlation with the thickness of the roof, which varied between >1 and 49 m. A discernible annual cyclicity was observed at some drip sites, with the highest δ18O values determined in winter and the lowest in late summer. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) δ13C values exhibited a wide range (between –15.5 and –5.0 ‰), and drip sites could be divided into two groups: some drip sites exhibited large seasonal variability (up to 9.9 %) with low values in the warmer season, while the others varied within <3 ‰ with no apparent seasonality. The CO2 concentration in the cave atmosphere was significantly higher from May to October, about 4000 to 8000 ppm, while it fluctuated between 700 and 1500 ppm in the colder part of the year. The δ13C values of CO2 varied between –23.8 and –15.2 ‰ and decreased exponentially with CO2 concentration. Similar to CO2, the δ13C values of DIC also decreased exponentially with increasing DIC concentration. The δ13C value of “added” CO2 in the atmosphere obtained from the δ13C x (C/C0-1) vs. (C/C0-1) plot (Sayles &% Curry, 1988) was –23.4 ± 2.6 ‰, which is almost identical to the CO2 added to the drip-water estimated from DIC concentration and δ13C values of DIC (–23.9 ± 3.4 ‰, considering the isotopic fractionation factor between CO2(g) and HCO3- from Mook et al. 1974). Chemical analysis showed that drip sites with a large seasonality of δ13C values have significantly lower saturation indices with respect to calcite in the warmer part of the year and that earlier calcite precipitation is most likely to occur at drip sites with lower drip rates.

 

Reference:

Mook et al., 1974, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 22,169–186.

Sayles & Curry, 1988, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 52, 2963–2978.

 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: We acknowledge the financial support of Slovenian Research Agency (J1-2478).

How to cite: Lojen, S., Zuliani, T., Nagode, K., Vreča, P., Kanduč, T., Tičar, J., Zorn, M., and Lipar, M.: Temporal and spatial variability of isotopic and hydrochemical parameters in cave drip-water feeding stalagmites: a case study from SE Slovenia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5109, 2022.

EGU22-5562 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Potential of lacustrine alkenones as a novel proxy for spring temperatures in mid-latitude European lakes 

Céline Martin, Nora Richter, Carsten Schubert, Francesco Pomati, Linda Amaral-Zettler, and Nathalie Dubois

Past temperature records are key tools for inferring climate dynamics and provide empirical data for testing climate models to improve our mechanistic understanding of natural climate variability. Unfortunately, very few quantitative records of pre-historic continental temperatures exist in Europe. Moreover, existing paleothermometers mainly provide mean annual or warm season temperatures, limiting our understanding of climate variability during the transitional seasons and winter. Alkenones are temperature-sensitive lipids produced by Isochrysidales algae, which have been used for decades to reconstruct quantitative changes in sea-surface temperatures. In lakes, they are not ubiquitous, but they have been increasingly reported in both saline and freshwater lakes worldwide, suggesting that there is great potential for alkenone-based paleotemperature reconstructions in lacustrine settings. Lacustrine alkenones have already been successfuly used to reconstruct paleotemperatures in high-latitude lakes. Depending on the timing of ice-out, they record winter/spring or summer temperatures. In our study, we found that a significant number of Swiss lakes contain lacustrine alkenones. Other studies in mid-latitude European lakes suggest that the peak of alkenone production occurs in spring. The monitoring of Lake St Moritz, an alpine lake in the South East of Switzerland, will allow determining the seasonality of alkenone production in mid-latitute high altitude lakes. Combining genetic analyses and the monitoring of physico-chemical parameters will provide more information about the ecology of the alkenone producers. Our first results suggest that we will be able to improve the understanding of alkenone production in freshwater lakes and to develop the first spring lake temperature reconstruction in Switzerland that extends beyond existing historical records.

How to cite: Martin, C., Richter, N., Schubert, C., Pomati, F., Amaral-Zettler, L., and Dubois, N.: Potential of lacustrine alkenones as a novel proxy for spring temperatures in mid-latitude European lakes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5562, 2022.

EGU22-5857 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

A tentative stalagmite-based multi-proxy reconstruction of environmental changes at the end of Marine Isotope Stage 11 in Uzbekistan, Central Asia 

Laura Bergmann, Emma Finestone, Tobias Braun, Yanjun Cai, Pete Scott, Stuart Umbo, Martin Trappe, Michael Petraglia, Nicole Boivin, and Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach

The archaeological record suggests that multiple groups of hominins occupied and dispersed across Central Asia periodically during the middle Pleistocene (Ranov et al., 1995; Derevianko et al. 2003; Vishnyatsky 1999). It is likely that early transcontinental migrations were tightly interwoven with environmental conditions, and especially water availability. To gain insights into the impact of climatic changes and associated regional environmental responses on hominin dispersal in inner Asia, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions are vital. Here we utilize a stalagmite-based multi-proxy record from Uzbekistan to shed light on environmental changes in Central Asia during the end of Marine Isotope Stage 11, ca. 390 ka before present.

We analysed stable isotopes (δ13C and δ18O), grey values (reflecting matrix density), and trace elements on a broken stalagmite segment (S-12-4) collected in 2012 in Amir Timur Cave, Uzbekistan. The cave is in the arid westernmost reaches of the Zaravshan mountain ranges south of Samarkand, with hot and arid summers and cold and humid winters. The cave is developed in marble at an altitude of 1813 m a.s.l. and exposed to western air masses. Backward trajectory modelling shows that moisture is derived mainly from the west and north-west. U/Th dating and stable isotope samples were taken at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena. Six U/Th samples were measured by MC-ICP-MS at the Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University. Stable isotope analysis was carried out at Northumbria University. The stalagmite covers the period between 405±8 ka BP and 387.8±7 ka BP. To improve the uncertainty of the U-Th chronology we counted 682 visible layers with an average thickness of 71.4 μm that are presumably of seasonal origin. The δ13C values vary between -8.21 and -4.14 ‰ VPDB, while δ18O ranges from -11.06 to -8.5 ‰ VPDB. Both isotope ratios covary on multi-decadal scale and correlate positively with Mg. Stable isotopes, grey values, and trace elements (Sr, U, Ba, and S) reveal changes in local moisture supply, with one prominent drying event at ca. 388±8 kyr BP. Although the cause of this prominent event remains unclear, we hypothesize that it could be the expression of local drying in response to a large volcanic eruption in the northern hemisphere, like that associated with the Campanian cryptotephra TP09-70.45 of Vakhrameeva et al. (2018). Ongoing work focuses on potential changes in seasonality and climate volatility, which might have affected the suitability of this region for middle Pleistocene hominin occupation.

References

Ranov, V. A., Carbonell, E., & Rodriguez, X. P. (1995). Current Anthropology 36, 337-346.

Derevianko, A. P. (Ed.) (2003). Novosibirsk: Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography SB RAS press.

Vishnyatsky, L. B. (1999). Journal of World Prehistory 13, 69-122.

Vakhrameeva et al. (2018). Quaternary Science Reviews 200, 313-333.

How to cite: Bergmann, L., Finestone, E., Braun, T., Cai, Y., Scott, P., Umbo, S., Trappe, M., Petraglia, M., Boivin, N., and Breitenbach, S. F. M.: A tentative stalagmite-based multi-proxy reconstruction of environmental changes at the end of Marine Isotope Stage 11 in Uzbekistan, Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5857, 2022.

EGU22-6078 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

A late Miocene seasonality and wildfire record from northern Siberia utilising novel speleothem proxies 

Stuart Umbo, Julia Homann, Franziska Lechleitner, Sevi Modestou, Alexander Kononov, Alexander Osintsev, Vaks Anton, Andrew Mason, Gideon Henderson, and Sebastian Breitenbach

The Miocene provides one of the best analogues for near future anthropogenic warming — with atmospheric CO2 concentrations similar, or slightly higher than present, warmer global temperatures (Steinthorsdottir et al., 2021), and a summer ice-free Arctic (Stein et al., 2016). Yet discrepancies still persist between the proxy record and model reconstructions (Steinthorsdottir et al., 2021), highlighting the need for chronologically well constrained and sensitive proxy records to aid our understanding of the underlying forcings of Miocene palaeoclimate and regional environmental response to climatic changes. Particularly sparse proxy coverage in the Siberian Arctic (Popova et al., 2012; Pound et al., 2012; Steinthorsdottir et al., 2021) hampers reconstruction of Miocene temperatures and hydrological dynamics in the northern hemisphere, despite the region being home to the globe’s largest extent of continuous permafrost – a key climate tipping element likely to play a significant role in future climate trajectories (Steffen et al., 2018).

Here we use U/Pb dated speleothem samples from Taba Bastaakh (72°15' N, 126°56' E), situated on the eastern bank of the river Lena in northern Siberia, to gain insights into climatic conditions during the Tortonian. The calcitic speleothems most likely formed under vadose conditions and have been U/Pb dated to 8.7 ± 0.6 Ma. Our multiproxy speleothem study utilises conventional (ẟ13C, ẟ18O, and trace elements) and novel (lignin and levoglucosan biomarkers and ẟ13C of non-purgeable organic carbon) environmental indicators to derive information on atmospheric circulation, local hydrology, wildfire occurrence, and vegetation regime. Macroscopically visible layers align with cyclic isotopic shifts of ca. 0.8 ‰ in ẟ13C (-9.8 ‰ to -8.6 ‰) and 1.6 ‰ in ẟ18O (-16.6 ‰ to -15 ‰). Oxygen isotope compositions are similar to those of southern Siberia in the modern day – indicative of a warmer, strongly seasonal environment. Carbon isotopes suggest a large organic component.

Stable isotopes have been measured at NICEST lab Northumbria University, biomarkers at JGU Mainz, ẟ13C NPOC at the University of Bern, and U/Pb dating in the Oxford geochronological lab.

 

References

Popova et al. (2012). Palaeoclimate evolution in siberia and the Russian far east from the oligocene to pliocene - evidence from fruit and seed floras. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 21(2), 315–334.

Pound et al. (2012). Global vegetation dynamics and latitudinal temperature gradients during the Mid to Late Miocene (15.97-5.33Ma). Earth-Science Reviews

Steffen et al. (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(33), 8252–8259.

Stein et al. (2016). Evidence for ice-free summers in the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean. Nature Communications, 7.

Steinthorsdottir et al. (2021). The Miocene: The Future of the Past. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36(4).

How to cite: Umbo, S., Homann, J., Lechleitner, F., Modestou, S., Kononov, A., Osintsev, A., Anton, V., Mason, A., Henderson, G., and Breitenbach, S.: A late Miocene seasonality and wildfire record from northern Siberia utilising novel speleothem proxies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6078, 2022.

EGU22-6232 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Spatially calibrating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as proxies of area burned by vegetation fires 

Richard S. Vachula, Allison Karp, Elizabeth Denis, Nicholas Balascio, Elizabeth Canuel, and Yongsong Huang

Many regions worldwide have experienced increasing wildfire activity in recent years and climate changes are predicted to result in more frequent and severe fires. Reconstruction of past fire activity offers paleoenvironmental context for modern and future burning. Pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been increasingly used as a molecular biomarker for fire occurrence in the paleorecord and offer opportunity for nuanced reconstructions of fire characteristics. A suite of PAHs is produced during combustion, and the emission amount and assemblage is influenced by many variables including fuel type, fire temperature, and oxygen availability. Despite recent advances in understanding the controls and taphonomy of these biomass burning markers, the spatial scale of this proxy is unknown. Measurements of PAH fluxes preserved in a lake sediment archive from the Sierra Nevada, California were compared with a historical geographic information system dataset of area burned up to 150 km distance from the lake to determine the spatial scales for which these biomarkers are reliable proxies of burning. The PAH fluxes in the Swamp Lake sediments record a change in the relative anthropogenic and pyrogenic sourcing of PAHs. Anthropogenic pollution sources could explain why some PAHs (fluoranthene (Fl), pyrene (Py), benz[a]anthracene (BaA), retene (Ret), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), dibenzo[a,h]anthracene (DA) and ideno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene (IP)) did not correlate with area burned within 150 km. This indicates that individual PAHs may have different efficacies in recording area burned and be more susceptible to masking of fire signals by pollution sources. Despite these complications, we find that the PAHs naphthalene (Na), acenaphthene (Ace), fluorene (F), and anthracene (An) are reliable local proxies of area burned (within 40 km), whereas the PAHs phenanthrene (Phe), chrysene (Ch), benzo[b]fluoranthene (BbF), benzo[k]fluoranthene (BkF), and benzo[g,h,i]perylene (Bghi) are both reliable local (within 36 km) as well as more regional (as much as 75 km for phenanthrene (Phe), chrysene (Ch), and benzo[g,h,i]perylene (Bghi) or 150 km for benzo[b]fluoranthene (BbF) and benzo[k]fluoranthene (BkF)) area burned proxies. Comparisons of PAH fluxes with charcoal accumulation rates in the same sediments suggest that pyrogenic particulate transport modulates low to mid-molecular weight PAHs via adsorption. Overall, the results indicate that PAH records integrate a combination of spatial signals of area burned and measurement of individual PAHs may enable cross-scale paleofire reconstructions.

How to cite: Vachula, R. S., Karp, A., Denis, E., Balascio, N., Canuel, E., and Huang, Y.: Spatially calibrating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as proxies of area burned by vegetation fires, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6232, 2022.

EGU22-6249 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Towards quantitative interglacial fire-vegetation-climate feedbacks: linking sedimentary fire proxy composition of marine isotope stage 11 (Lake El’gygytgyn) and modern lake surfaces (E Siberia) 

Elisabeth Dietze, Vivien Reichel, Andrei Andreev, Simeon Lisovski, Kai Mangelsdorf, Tabea Tessendorf, Jasmin Weise, Volker Wennrich, and Ulrike Herzschuh

The ongoing intensification of forest fires in the Siberian Arctic (larger areas, longer durations, higher intensities) raises concerns if these fires might lead to biome shifts from tundra to summergreen or evergreen boreal forest – with consequences for regional to global biophysical land properties and biogeochemical cycles. Given the short time span of instrumental observations, it is unknown if fire can initiate or support biome shifts under the ongoing amplified warming or if climate drives fire regime and biome changes independently. Lake El’gygytgyn in the Russian Far East is currently surrounded by tundra, but pollen data (ICDP sediment core 5011-1A) suggests that during late Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12 and “superinterglacial” MIS 11, c. 375-440 kyrs ago biomes changed several times:  from a glacial steppe to interglacial summergreen and evergreen boreal forest. Here, we investigate if and which type of fire regime shifts accompanied these biome shifts.

To enable a quantitative reconstruction of changes in fire intensities and the type of biomass burnt, we used multiple fire proxies. The monosaccharide anhydrides (MAs) are specific biomass burning residues from low-temperature fires analyzed with ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to a high-resolution mass spectrometer. Sedimentary charcoal reflects mid-to-high intensity fires and was analyzed in sieved fraction > 150 μm and from pollen slides using a microscope. MA isomer ratios and charcoal morphotypes were used to reconstruct the type of biomass burnt. We established links between fire proxy composition and pollen-based vegetation composition for the MIS 11 using core 5011-1A sediments considering dating uncertainties.

To link fire proxy composition with fire regime properties, we used the same fire proxies in modern lake surface sediments from three lakes in Eastern Siberia. We assessed modern charcoal and MA source areas by modelling lake-sedimentary fire proxy transport from modern fires using fire radiative power data of the MODIS Thermal Anomalies product, plume injection heights from the MODIS Terra and Aqua MCD19A2 data and hourly wind fields from ERA5 climate data.

We find clear differences in sedimentary fire proxy composition depending on source area of charcoals and MAs in modern lake sediments. Modern types of fire regime-fire proxy-vegetation-relationships are linkable to the derived past interglacial relationships indicating that fire regime change played a role during some, but not all biome shifts. Overall, we provide new understanding of Siberian sedimentary fire proxies, crucial for a sound, i.e. quantitative reconstruction of long-term fire regime change, allowing to assess the role of fire regime intensification in biome changes during periods of stark warming.

How to cite: Dietze, E., Reichel, V., Andreev, A., Lisovski, S., Mangelsdorf, K., Tessendorf, T., Weise, J., Wennrich, V., and Herzschuh, U.: Towards quantitative interglacial fire-vegetation-climate feedbacks: linking sedimentary fire proxy composition of marine isotope stage 11 (Lake El’gygytgyn) and modern lake surfaces (E Siberia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6249, 2022.

EGU22-7050 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Charcoal morphologies to discriminate fuel source and fire temperatures 

Angelica Feurdean and Johannes Tintner

Wildfires can have major impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and climate. The analysis of charcoal fragments in peat and lake sediments is the most widely used approach to reconstruct past biomass burning and fire regimes. This method typically relies on the quantification of the total charcoal content of the sediment. However, there is an increasing effort to use morphologies (finer anatomical features) and morphometrics (length: width ratio) of charcoal particles to advance our understanding of fuel burnt and fire types. We used experimental burnings in the laboratory for plant species from boreal Siberia, which are also commonly found in the Northern Hemisphere, to expand the reference datasets on morphological distinctions between species or fuel types. We also tested the effect of burning temperature (five temperature categories ranging from 250 to 450 °C) on char mass and morphometrics of charred plant material. We found that graminoid charcoal particles are most elongate (6.7-11.5), leaves are the shortest and bulkiest (2.1-3.5) while twigs and wood are intermediate (2.0-5.2). Our findings correspond well to the few existing comparable experimental measurements. Further, the use of fine charcoal features was successful in separating wood, graminoids, and leaves, but it was difficult to further differentiate these fuel types i.e., leaves and wood from trees and shrubs, due to overlapping features. In terms of charred mass, graminoids, Sphagnum, and wood (trunk) lose the most mass at low burn temperatures (<300°C), whereas heathland shrub leaves, brown moss, and ferns at high burn temperatures. Ongoing work applying micro-Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) on both modern charred particles produced at different temperature ranges and fossil charcoal will help estimate the pyrolysis temperature and fuel type. Similarly, our focus is to expand reference datasets on charcoal morphologies and FTIR to other major biomes, particularly grasslands. We also highlight the further investigations into charcoal experimental studies needed to refine the histories of past wildfires.

How to cite: Feurdean, A. and Tintner, J.: Charcoal morphologies to discriminate fuel source and fire temperatures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7050, 2022.

EGU22-7376 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Hydrogen isotopes from lipid biomarkers record eutrophication induced changes in algal community assemblages 

S. Nemiah Ladd, Daniel B. Nelson, Blake Matthews, Shannon Dyer, Anita Narwani, Nathalie Dubois, and Carsten Schubert

Phytoplankton are an important biogeochemical force, collectively impacting nutrient cycling as well as atmospheric and aquatic chemistry. However, it remains challenging to reconstruct changes in algal productivity and community assembly throughout the geologic past. Here, we lay the foundation for a sensitive proxy of past algal ecology based on compound-specific hydrogen isotope compositions (δ2H values) of common algal lipids. While such measurements have previously been used as indicators of water hydrogen isotope ratios, our results from laboratory cultures and experimental ponds demonstrate that changes in the δ2H values of ubiquitous lipids such as palmitic acid associated with taxonomic changes are an order of magnitude greater than those caused by hydrologic change. These results indicate that δ2H values of algal lipids, and the relative offset of these values among different compounds, can be used to reconstruct past changes in algal community assemblages, including those driven by changes in nutrient supply.

We apply this approach to a ~180 year sedimentary record from Lake Greifen, a lake in the central Swiss Plateau that underwent well-documented eutrophication and partial recovery in the second half of the 20th century. As total phosphorus concentrations in the lake increased from > 100 mg/L to ~ 500 mg/L in the 1950s-1970s, palmitic acid d2H values increased by 40 ‰ and phytol δ2H values by 20 ‰;  δ2H values of both compounds subsequently declined with total P following maximum values in the early 1980s. During this entire time interval, mean annual precipitation δ2H values fluctuated within a ~10 ‰ range and are not correlated with the changes in lipid δ2H values. Additionally, the decline in lipid δ2H values is correlated with declining relative abundance of green algae as the eutrophication pressure on Lake Greifen receded in the past decades. This correlation matches the prediction from our culturing and mesocosm results, where green algae produced exceptionally 2H-enriched fatty acids, and indicates that lipid δ2H can be applied to reconstruct nutrient induced shifts in algal populations.

How to cite: Ladd, S. N., Nelson, D. B., Matthews, B., Dyer, S., Narwani, A., Dubois, N., and Schubert, C.: Hydrogen isotopes from lipid biomarkers record eutrophication induced changes in algal community assemblages, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7376, 2022.

EGU22-7459 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Karst development and geochronology of cave sediments and speleothems in the Western Mecsek Mts., Hungary, Pannonian Basin 

Krisztina Sebe, Zsófia Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger, Gergely Surányi, Ágnes Novothny, Márton Bauer, and Gábor Csillag

The karst region of the Western Mecsek Mts. is a hilly area with a maximum elevation of ~600 m a.s.l. The karst has developed on Triassic limestones, with part of the drainage basins on lower Triassic sandstones and conglomerates. Our main objective was to constrain the karst development in time, to identify karstification periods with respect to climate, and to obtain data on landscape evolution. Cave geometries were surveyed, and speleothems and allochthonous siliciclastic sediments were extensively sampled for U-series, cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) burial and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) age determination.

Cave passage orientations are dominantly controlled by tectonic fractures and bedding. Most cavities formed in the vadose zone, only a few passages show features possibly referring to the phreatic zone. No obvious geomorphic levels could be identified within the caves. Cave sediments include reworked loess (dominant), coarse gravels and sands from Triassic red sandstones, red clay, reworked speleothems (dripstones, carbonate tuff from cave streams), and fragments of the host rocks. Though several passages used to be filled with fluvially transported sediments, at present none of the spring caves issues clastic deposits, thus the deep karst system apparently acts as sediment sink.

The CRN burial age of the oldest cave sediments is ~2.5 Ma, in a sinkhole cave now in a valley-side position. The burial ages of sediments in caves with entrances at or close to present-day valley floors are Middle Pleistocene to recent.

According to the U-series ages, speleothems precipitated at least from the Middle Pleistocene to the Holocene, with most data concentrating in the last glacial maximum and in the Holocene, but several ages exceeding the limits of the measurement method. They formed under all climatic conditions, from glacials to interglacials. They underwent repeated phases of precipitation and dissolution. Widespread submerged stalagmites refer to oscillations of the karst water table; measured ages of ~3 ka and 40-50 ka indicate formation during milder climates, with still lower-than-present water tables. Based on OSL ages, loess was washed into the caves under both cold and mild climates in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. The ages obtained by the different age determination methods do not allow to distinguish periods with different types of karst activities, they suggest that both speleothem genesis and sediment transport happened under all climate types and simultaneously.

The burial age of the clastic infill of the oldest dated cave, which now can practically lacks a drainage area, be used to infer local incision rate. 2 Ma ago it still received sediment (coarse sand and sandstone) from non-karstic rocks. Supposing a valley-floor position for that time at the recent cave entrance gives a valley incision rate of ~15 mm/ky. Pre- and post-burial surface denudation rates calculated using the CRN data vary between ~12-35 mm/ky.

Sandstone cobbles in a cave now lacking non-karstic rocks in the catchment area indicate drastic drainage changes, the capture of the upper catchment by the neighbouring watercourse.

Research was supported by PURAM, Mecsekérc Ltd. and NKFIH project FK 124807.

How to cite: Sebe, K., Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger, Z., Surányi, G., Novothny, Á., Bauer, M., and Csillag, G.: Karst development and geochronology of cave sediments and speleothems in the Western Mecsek Mts., Hungary, Pannonian Basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7459, 2022.

EGU22-9336 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Long-term thermokarst lake development and internal ecological feedbacks: A new reconstruction from Lake Satagay (Yakutia, Siberia) 

Izabella Baisheva, Luidmila Pestryakova, Boris Biskaborn, Stuart Vyse, Sardana Levina, Ramesh Glückler, Ulrike Herzschuh, and Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring
The permafrost-shaped landscape of Central Yakutia is particularly rich in thermokarst lakes, which provide important cultural and ecosystem services to the local population. Climate warming and an intensification of agriculture in alaas systems (i.e. mostly drained basins of large thaw lakes formed during the early Holocene under warm climatic conditions) in the Central Yakutian Lowlands may lead to pronounced changes in water resources, water quality, nutrient loading and biodiversity. This could in turn threaten the livelihoods of affected communities, who depend on functional alaas ecosystems. To better foresee potential future impacts of environmental changes on internal lake ecological processes, it is important to gain a better understanding of how thermokarst lakes reacted to such changes in the past.
 
Here, we present a new paleoenvironmental reconstruction of ecological changes within Lake Satagay (N 63.078, E 117.998, Nyurbinsky District), covering the last ca. 10,800 years. We use sedimentological and XRF-derived geochemical parameters, in addition to the metabarcoding of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedDNA) for diatoms and aquatic plants, and microscopic diatom analyses, to evaluate sedimentological and biodiversity shifts throughout the Holocene. Our study revealed 53 diatom DNA sequence types and 53 species morphologically. High distributions of Stephanodiscus and Fragilaria, among multiple other diatom genera in the early Holocene, indicate that initial formation of this typical alaas lake occurred earlier than expected (i.e. before 10,800 BP). In recent millennia diatom abundance decreased and their community is almost exclusively composed of Pseudostaurosira and Fragilaria. Composition of aquatic plants show an overall dominance of Ceratophyllaceae and strong fluctuations in Potamogetonaceae likely related to lake level and water chemical changes. All proxies investigated support that lake conditions and biotic composition has been resilient since 4,000 BP, but youngest samples since 47 BP indicate that land use influence has been crucial for the lake quality. This study represents a step towards a better understanding of climate and human-impacted alaas lake development and its consequences for their ecosystem services in eastern Siberia in the near future.

How to cite: Baisheva, I., Pestryakova, L., Biskaborn, B., Vyse, S., Levina, S., Glückler, R., Herzschuh, U., and Stoof-Leichsenring, K.: Long-term thermokarst lake development and internal ecological feedbacks: A new reconstruction from Lake Satagay (Yakutia, Siberia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9336, 2022.

EGU22-10202 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Reconstruction of Holocene wildfire occurrence using levoglucosan and lignin biomarkers from Siberian stalagmites 

Jade Robinson, Julia Homann, Stuart Umbo, Pete Scott, Gernot Nehrke, Thorsten Hoffmann, Anton Vaks, Aleksandr Kononov, Alexander Osintsev, Andrew Mason, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Gideon M. Henderson, and Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach

Recent accelerating global temperature rise increases the likelihood and susceptibility of the Siberian taiga to more frequent and extreme wildfires [1] [2]. This leads to enhanced permafrost thaw and subsequent greenhouse gases emissions, in a positive feedback loop [3]. Various studies have examined these paleofires in Siberia on limited, modern timescales [4, 5], but long-term reconstructions of wildfire occurrences are scarce [6]. This study reconstructs wildfire occurrence during the Holocene using stalagmites from southern Siberia. We provide a new means for assessing Siberian wildfires during interglacial periods and the first southern Siberian Holocene wildfire record. 

Three stalagmites from Botovskaya Cave (55˚17’59”N, 105˚19’46”E) have been U/Th-dated at the Oxford geochronology laboratory. These speleothem samples were collected deep inside the poorly ventilated cave, which is overlain by 40-130 m of sandstone covered by a thin soil and boreal taiga forest. Drip sites are active year-round, and cave air temperature is stable at ca. 1.3±0.5°C. Wildfires sporadically occur above the cave.

We use novel speleothem biomarkers, levoglucosan and lignin, as tracers for wildfire activity and vegetation composition above the cave, respectively. Levoglucosan is an anhydrous monosaccharide solely produced by the combustion of cellulose, and thus an ideal proxy for wildfires. Lignin is a biopolymer with three monomers. The monomer ratio can inform on relative changes between gymnosperm vs. angiosperm plant communities. Using both proxies we can decipher not only wildfire recurrence, but also changes in vegetation (e.g., from pine forest to peatbogs or grassland).

We took subsamples between 300 and 1000 mg and attribute the levels of levoglucosan to variance of the composition of lignin monomers, corresponding with vegetation composition. The required sample size (1 g) and the low observed carbonate growth rates of ca. 4-8 mm/a mean that we can only achieve multi-centennial resolution for the Holocene. To gain complementary insights into environmental conditions we combine the biomarker information with stable isotopes and element concentrations.

 References 

[1] V. I. Kharuk, et al., "Wildfires in the Siberian Taiga," Ambio , vol. 50, pp. 1953-1974, 2021.

[2] M. B. S. Flannigan, et al., "Impact of climate change on fire acivity and fire management in the circumboreal forest," Global Change Biology, vol. 15, pp. 549-560, 2009.

[3] M. R. Turetsky, et al., "Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw," Nature Geoscience , vol. 13, pp. 138-143, 2020.

[4] M. M. Grieman, et al.,"Aromatic acids in a Eurasian Arctic ice core: a 2600-year proxy record of biomass burning," Climate of the Past , vol. 13, pp. 395-410, 2017.

[5] R. Glückler, et al., "Wildfire history of the boreal forest of south-western Yakutia (Siberia) over the last two millennia document by a lake-sediment charcoal record," Biogeosciences , vol. 18, pp. 4185-4209, 2021.

[6] E. Dietze, et al., "Relationships between low-temperature fires, climate and vegetation during three late glacials and interglacials of the last 430 kyr in northeastern Siberia reconstructed from monosaccharide anhydrides in Lake El'gygytygyn sediments," Climate of the Past, vol. 16, pp. 799-818, 2020.

How to cite: Robinson, J., Homann, J., Umbo, S., Scott, P., Nehrke, G., Hoffmann, T., Vaks, A., Kononov, A., Osintsev, A., Mason, A., A. Lechleitner, F., M. Henderson, G., and F. M. Breitenbach, S.: Reconstruction of Holocene wildfire occurrence using levoglucosan and lignin biomarkers from Siberian stalagmites, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10202, 2022.

EGU22-11970 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Seasonal climate reconstruction using biogenic carbonates from shallow and deep water lake sediments 

Inga Labuhn, Dan Hammarlund, and Ulrich von Grafenstein

Carbonate shells from lacustrine organisms provide proxy records of past climatic changes. Their oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) is controlled by the δ18O of the lake water and by water temperature during carbonate precipitation. The lake water δ18O depends on the δ18O of precipitation in the catchment, which is positively correlated with air temperature in high latitudes. An increasing air temperature therefore leads to an increase in carbonate δ18O. However, the proxy interpretation is complicated by the fact that an increasing water temperature during carbonate precipitation leads to a decrease in carbonate δ18O because of the temperature dependency of isotope fractionation. In the profundal parts of deep lakes, this water temperature change is minimal, and biogenic carbonates mainly reflect lake water δ18O. However, carbonate remains are often much more abundant in shallow water, where water temperature variations can be large.

In this study, we evaluate the possibility to quantitatively reconstruct seasonal temperature changes by combining sediment cores from littoral and profundal Holocene sediments of Lake Locknesjön, Sweden. We measured the isotopic composition of ostracod and mollusk shells and of encrustations from calcifying algae.

In the shallow water sediments, the differences in the mean carbonate δ18O between species can mainly be attributed to seasonal water temperature changes. The lowest δ18O values are observed in Chara encrustations formed during the summer months, and the highest values in adult ostracods, which calcify their valves during the cold season. First isotope measurements on deep water sediments show that the δ18O is higher and less variable than in the shallow sediments. The offsets between species, and between deep and shallow sediments are not constant throughout the Holocene. Assuming a water temperature near 4 °C, biogenic carbonates in the profundal sediments can give insights into the δ18O of lake water and might allow – combined with the abundant measurements from the shallow water cores – a quantification of the seasonal temperature range.

How to cite: Labuhn, I., Hammarlund, D., and von Grafenstein, U.: Seasonal climate reconstruction using biogenic carbonates from shallow and deep water lake sediments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11970, 2022.

EGU22-11983 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Pollen-based Holocene temperature and precipitation pattern of the Northern Hemisphere regions in the light of the global temperature trend 

Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Boehmer, Chenzhi Li, Xianyong Cao, Manuel Chevalier, and Anne Dallmeyer

Mismatch in model- and proxy-based Holocene climate change, known as the Holocene Conundrum, may partially originate from the poor spatial coverage of climate reconstructions e.g. in Asia, limiting the number of grid cells for model-data comparison. Here we investigate pollen-based reconstructions of mean annual, mean July temperature, and annual precipitation from 2594 sites in  the northern hemisphere extratropics that were set up with a harmonized calibration method and were presented with revised chronologies. Temperature trends show strong latitudinal pattern and differ between (sub-)continents. While Europe and eastern North America show a pronounced mid-Holocene temperature maximum, western North America shows only weak changes and Asia a continuous Holocene temperature increase but with strong latitudinal differences. While on hemisphere scale, temperature and precipitation show similar trends (i.e. a Holocene toward the late mid-Holocene increase until followed by a slight decline until present), on continental and regional scale positive, negative and non-correlation are found. Particularly in Asia strong latitudinal pattern of precipitation is found.  Finally, we merged our data with the data of Kaufman et al 2020 doubling the number of records in this data base and presented a revised global temperature curve.

How to cite: Herzschuh, U., Boehmer, T., Li, C., Cao, X., Chevalier, M., and Dallmeyer, A.: Pollen-based Holocene temperature and precipitation pattern of the Northern Hemisphere regions in the light of the global temperature trend, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11983, 2022.

EGU22-12224 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Pollen-based reconstruction of regional vegetation and land cover in the Northern Hemisphere 

Laura Schild, Peter Ewald, Thomas Böhmer, Alexander Karl Postl, Chenzhi Li, Thomas Laepple, and Ulrike Herzschuh

Data on past vegetation compositions is crucial not only for understanding past vegetation dynamics and environmental interactions but also for predicting potential future vegetation trajectories and thus their feedback on climate and society. Pollen records from sediment cores provide temporally resolved data on pollen frequencies. These allow for inferences of taxa presence, but biased pollen deposition due to taxa-specific pollen productivity and dispersal prohibit direct inference of taxa abundance.

The model for Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) corrects for these taxa-specific parameters and produces more realistic regional vegetation abundances. Previously applied in many regions such as North America, Southern Sweden, Norway, and more recently the entirety of Europe, REVEALS has performed well in providing estimates for large vegetation units as well as individual taxa. 

With this data set, we present reconstructed past regional vegetation for more than 2200 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. The REVEALS model was applied by using a harmonized pollen dataset for the entire Northern Hemisphere, taxa-specific pollen productivity estimates, pollen fall speeds, as well as pollen dispersal models. First validations show an improved fit of the reconstructed vegetation with remotely sensed tree cover compared to pure pollen percentages. For validation tree cover datasets from the CONSENSUS global 1-km land cover product were used. The pollen source areas were defined to include 80% of the area from which deposited pollen originated.

This first-time reconstruction for the entire Northern Hemisphere will allow for detailed analysis of vegetation dynamics and trajectories ultimately improving our understanding of climate-vegetation interactions, and may even act as input and validation for other vegetation and climate models and proxies.

How to cite: Schild, L., Ewald, P., Böhmer, T., Postl, A. K., Li, C., Laepple, T., and Herzschuh, U.: Pollen-based reconstruction of regional vegetation and land cover in the Northern Hemisphere, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12224, 2022.

EGU22-12265 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Kinetic metals: reconstructing past cave drip rates using the “decay” of organic metal complexes (OMCs) 

Sebastian Höpker, Bedartha Goswami, Megan Grainger, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, and Adam Hartland

Speleothems (secondary cave carbonates) are exceptional archives for the study of past climate and environments over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Conventional speleothem proxies, such as stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O), are increasingly bolstered by trace element to Ca ratios, providing increased certainty regarding local/regional hydroclimatic dynamics.

Most studies utilising trace element records limit analyses to the alkaline earth metals (primarily Mg, Sr, Ba), which are most commonly interpreted to reflect drying and wetting within the karst system. This interpretation is based on the susceptibility of these elements to prior carbonate precipitation (PCP) and their relatively predictable partitioning between infiltrating water and the carbonate crystal phase. However, this approach rarely allows for quantitative hydroclimate reconstructions, and in many cases may unperceivably be compromised by similar chemical signals generated by other processes in the karst (e.g., incongruent calcite dissolution). While numerous other trace elements are incorporated into speleothems, their systematics and controls are far less constrained, and typically require statistical models to derive any potential links with environmental processes.

Here we aim to develop a more mechanistic understanding of the partitioning of selected transition metals (Ni, Co, Cu) with view to establishing a novel quantitative hydrological proxy. The transport of these elements from the surface to the cave is governed by binding to organic matter present in percolating waters. The rate of dissociation, or “decay”, of such organic metal complexes (OMCs) at the dripwater-stalagmite interface is suggested to determine the availability of these elements for inclusion into the carbonate (Hartland & Zitoun, 2018). By extension, this link between OMC dissociation and metal availability for capture by stalagmites offers an opportunity to quantify past drip rates because the resulting carbonate metal concentrations are time-dependent.

We present results from a series of Competitive Ligand Exchange (CLE) experiments aimed to assess OMC dissociation kinetics in water samples collected from various New Zealand caves. Our study demonstrates how organic ligands constrain transition metal partitioning from dripwaters to speleothems, and provides first quantitative estimates of the time-dependent release of metals for the inclusion in the latter. We argue that in absence of detrital contamination, this kinetic control presents the overriding mechanism for metal availability at stalagmite surfaces, and thus effectively dictates M/Ca ratios in stalagmites.

References:

Hartland, A., Zitoun, R. (2018) Transition metal availability to speleothems controlled by organic binding ligands. Geochem. Persp. Let. 8, 22–25.

How to cite: Höpker, S., Goswami, B., Grainger, M., Breitenbach, S. F. M., and Hartland, A.: Kinetic metals: reconstructing past cave drip rates using the “decay” of organic metal complexes (OMCs), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12265, 2022.

EGU22-12651 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Holocene climate in Northern Urals (Komi Republic, Russia): a multi-proxy approach based on pollen and brGDGTs 

Chéïma Barhoumi, Sébastien Joannin, Adam A. Ali, Guillemette Ménot, Yulia Golubeva, Dmitri Subetto, Alexander Kryshen, Igor Drobyshev, and Odile Peyron

The functioning of the boreal forests of Russia is still little documented and little understood. It is governed by complex mechanisms that link climate, vegetation and disturbances, such as fires or human impact.In this presentation, we aim to provide robust reconstructions of the Holocene climate (temperatures and precipitation) of the Vychegda River basin in the Republic of Komi region, based on two different proxies: pollen assemblages and GDGTs (Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers). This first study of GDGTs in this area corresponds to a preliminary step for the calibration of this proxy in peats. Higher temperatures and precipitation are recorded between 7000 and 4000 cal. yr BP (mean annual temperatures around 3°C and precipitation between 600 and 700 mm per year). This climatic optimum is in agreement with previous pollen-based climate reconstructions, and climate patterns in the neighboring Russian and Fennoscandia (Komi Republic - previous study-, Arctic Russia, Siberia and Northern Europe, Andreev and Klimanov, 2000; Golubeva, 2008; Seppä et al., 2009a). These results, in conjunction with the reconstruction of fire activity and vegetation dynamics in this region, led to a better understanding of the crossed influences of these factors. In particular, vegetation is mainly controlled by climate during the first part of the Holocene, while a threshold is reached on in fire frequency after 3500 cal. yr BP and this parameter has a greater impact on vegetation than climate. Over the past 600 years, the intensification of human activities led to overexploitation of the forest and an increase in its fire activity.

How to cite: Barhoumi, C., Joannin, S., Ali, A. A., Ménot, G., Golubeva, Y., Subetto, D., Kryshen, A., Drobyshev, I., and Peyron, O.: Holocene climate in Northern Urals (Komi Republic, Russia): a multi-proxy approach based on pollen and brGDGTs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12651, 2022.

Statistical climate reconstruction techniques are fundamental tools to study past climate variability from fossil proxy data. In particular, the methods based on probability density functions (or PDFs) have the potential to be used in various environments and with different climate proxies because they rely on elementary calibration data (i.e. modern geolocalised presence data). However, the access and curation of these calibration data, as well as the complexity of interpreting probabilistic results, often limit their use in palaeoclimatological studies. I introduce a new R package (crestr) to apply the CREST method (Climate REconstruction SofTware) on diverse palaeoecological datasets and address these problems. crestr includes a globally curated calibration dataset for six common climate proxies (i.e. plants, beetles, chironomids, rodents, foraminifera, and dinoflagellate cysts) associated with an extensive range of climate variables that enables its use in most terrestrial and marine environments. Private data collections can also be used instead of, or in combination with, the provided calibration dataset. The package includes a suite of graphical diagnostic tools to represent the data at each step of the reconstruction process and provide insights into the effect of the different modelling assumptions and external factors that underlie a reconstruction. With this R package, the CREST method can now be used in a scriptable environment, thus simplifying its use and integration in existing workflows. It is hoped that crestr will contribute to producing the much-needed quantified records from the many regions where climate reconstructions are currently lacking, despite the availability of suitable fossil records. The use of the package will be illustrated with a recent application to produce a 790,000 year long mean annual temperature reconstruction based on a pollen record from southeastern Africa.

How to cite: Chevalier, M.: crestr An R package to perform probabilistic climate reconstructions using fossil proxies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13234, 2022.

EGU22-13242 | Presentations | CL5.1.3

Intense mid-Holocene warming on highland Sumatra: insights from biomarker proxies 

Petter Hällberg, Antonio Martínez Cortizas, Anggi Hapsari, Hamidi Rifai, Steffen Eisele, Caroline Bouvet de Maisonneuve, Malin Kylander, Frederik Schenk, and Rienk Smittenberg

Despite immense progress in the last decades, the Holocene climate evolution is still poorly resolved, in particular in the tropics, and especially from a terrestrial perspective. Here we reconstruct 11 000 years of paleo-climate and environment in the western Indo-Pacific Warm Pool – “the heat and steam engine of the world” – by analysing biomarker and geochemical proxies in peat sediments from Sumatra.

We discuss the composition of archaeal and bacterial membrane lipids (branched and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers; GDGTs) and their relationship with temperature and other environmental conditions. By analysing the hydrogen isotopes of leaf waxes (dDwax) we reconstruct past rainfall amounts.

X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) derived geochemical composition reveals changes in erosional regimes. Additionally, we use long-chain n-alkane distributions, carbon and nitrogen analysis, and attenuated reflectance Fourier-Transform Infrared analysis (FTIR-ATR) to investigate changes in vegetation on the peatland.

Three main climate-environmental phases emerge in our record: 1) Relatively cold, dry and unstable conditions during the Early Holocene which is marked by high detrital input into the peatland. 2) Warm, wet and stable conditions coincided with the mid-Holocene period, 8.2 – 3.2 ka BP. Using a global peat-specific temperature calibration based on branched GDGTs (Naafs et al., 2017), we derive mean annual air temperatures peaking at 4.8 ka BP that are ~3 °C warmer compared to core-top and modern local weather station data. The warmest period is also the wettest according to dDwax, which is further supported by GDGT and alkane distributions, and d13C values indicating aquatic biomass production. 3) At 3.2 ka BP, the climate abruptly deteriorated into colder and drier conditions and re-intensified erosion.

Surprisingly, slope wash events resulting in input of coarse detrital material into the core were most frequent during the dry periods. We suggest that this is related to a more variable hydroclimate with droughts and episodic heavy rains, likely associated with ENSO variability, causing increased erosion during the Early and Late Holocene.

 

How to cite: Hällberg, P., Martínez Cortizas, A., Hapsari, A., Rifai, H., Eisele, S., Bouvet de Maisonneuve, C., Kylander, M., Schenk, F., and Smittenberg, R.: Intense mid-Holocene warming on highland Sumatra: insights from biomarker proxies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13242, 2022.

Differentiating between natural and anthropogenic fire activity in the past remains one of the principal challenges in interpreting paleo-charcoal records and has implications for contextualizing changing fire regimes in our world today. During the Holocene, cultural burning practices throughout the globe were motivated by diverse social institutions, values, and economics; however, the frequency, seasonality, spatial distribution, and ecological severity of global anthropogenic fire likely differed enough from natural fire to generate lasting ecological effects. Similarly, prescribed fire operations conducted by federal land managing agencies in the United States are modern examples of cultural burning to achieve desired ecological outcomes. Nonetheless, relatively few studies have utilized prescribed fires as laboratories for testing methods to interpret anthropogenic fire activity in charcoal records. In this paper, we present the results of a comprehensive study of charcoal production and morphology collected during a series of highly instrumented prescribed fires that occurred during March 2021 within the Hitchiti Experimental Forest, Georgia, USA. We relate both field-collected and lab-created charcoal datasets to pre-/post-burn vegetation inventories, thermal images capturing fire behavior, and radiometric measurement of energy release collected at 12 study plots throughout the burn area. Using this approach, we seek to expand the interpretive potential of paleo-charcoal records for identifying past anthropogenic fire activity similar to the frequent, low-severity prescribed fires practiced by land managers today.

How to cite: Snitker, G. and Strother, D.: Expanding the interpretation of anthropogenic fire in the paleo-charcoal record through modern prescribed fires: A study of charcoal production and morphology during the 2021 Hitchiti Experimental Forest prescribed fire campaign, Georgia, USA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13424, 2022.

EGU22-312 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

A Tale of Two Rivers: Comparing erosion rates from two sides of the South African landscape 

Rivoningo Khosa, Stephen Tooth, Vela Mbele, and Robyn Pickering

Many classical models of landscape evolution in South Africa have previously relied on large-scale, predominantly qualitative, field observations. In recent decades, however, the development of the accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) has allowed for greater use of cosmogenic nuclide analyses in landscape evolution studies to quantify rates of denudation and establish timescales of landscape development. In South Africa, various field areas and isotopes have been studied to understand the development of the landscape on Quaternary and longer timescales. The aim of our study is to use a cosmogenic nuclide (10Be) to investigate the development of geographically separate parts of the South African landscape, and so contribute towards the growing database of landscape evolution rates across southern Africa. Samples of granitic bedrock have been collected along the Olifants River (local/original names: Lepelle, Obalule or iBhalule) in the Kruger National Park in the subtropical east and are being compared to samples of similar composition from the Orange River (local/original names: Gariep, Senqu,) near the Augrabies Falls National Park in the arid west. Both rivers have similar multi-channel morphologies (e.g. mixed bedrock-alluvial anabranching).  A comparison of erosion rates along these otherwise similar rivers at opposite sides of the country will enable an investigation of the effects of climatic differences on erosion rates. Results will allow us to test previous, largely qualitative hypotheses of landscape evolution using state-of-the-art cosmogenic nuclide data analysed at the African continent’s only AMS facility.

How to cite: Khosa, R., Tooth, S., Mbele, V., and Pickering, R.: A Tale of Two Rivers: Comparing erosion rates from two sides of the South African landscape, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-312, 2022.

EGU22-468 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

The TephroMed project: Precise synchronising of two key palaeoclimatic ICDP records of the eastern Mediterranean using tephra 

Rebecca Kearney, Markus J. Schwab, Ina Neugebauer, Nadine Pickarski, and Achim Brauer

The eastern Mediterranean region is located at divergent climatic zones and contrasting precipitation regimes of the humid Mediterranean climate and hyper-arid Saharo-Arabian desert belt. Important sedimentary archives from lakes allow past hydroclimatic variability to be reconstructed using multiple proxies. This can provide useful insight into potential future water budget scenarios. However, problems associated with chronological uncertainty can prevent insight into regional climatic (a)synchronies. The use of isochronous chronological markers of tephra (volcanic ash) can be a powerful tool in correlating palaeoclimatic records, particularly over vast distances with the development of cryptotephra analyses (non-visible volcanic glass shards).

            The TephroMed project aims to precisely synchronise two key ICDP palaeoclimatic records from eastern Mediterranean through the use of tephrostratigraphic investigations: to the north, in the Anatolian region, Lake Van (PALEOVAN, Litt et al., 2014) and to the south, in the Levant, the Dead Sea (DSDDP, Stein et al., 2011). Both records have undergone lake level reconstructions, indicating contrasting past regional responses to large-scale climatic events (e.g. Finne et al., 2019; Neugebauer et al., 2015). Though both records are dated through absolute and relative methods (radiocarbon, U-Th, varve counting, wiggle-matching), inherited large chronological uncertainties do not allow detailed insight into the potential climatic time-transgressive nature between the two sites. Yet, both records have tephra deposits within their lacustrine sediments, highlighting the potential to facilitate the alignment of both records using tephra (Neugebauer et al., 2021).

Here, we present new major and minor element volcanic glass chemical data from several tephra layers from both Lake Van and the Dead Sea ICDP cores. New geochemical data from selected visible tephra layers in Lake Van are given. The cryptotephra results from the Dead Sea show particular significant findings with volcanic glass derived from potentially several volcanic regions within the Mediterranean (e.g. Anatolia, Italy). This new data can help to facilitate a chronological alignment between the Dead Sea, Lake Van and other important climatic archives in the Mediterranean. In addition, it highlights the importance of distal records in understanding past volcanic eruptions. As a result of these findings, we can now start to answer questions associated with regional expression of past climatic events and their temporal transgression.

References

Finné, M., Woodbridge, J., Labuhn, I., Roberts, C.N., 2019. Holocene hydro-climatic variability in the Mediterranean: A synthetic multi-proxy reconstruction. Holocene 29(5), 847–863

Litt, T., Anselmetti, F.S., 2014. Lake Van deep drilling project PALEOVAN. Quat. Sci. Rev. 104, 1-7.

Neugebauer, I., Brauer, A., Schwab, M.J., Dulski, P., Frank, U., Hadzhiivanova, E., Kitagawa, H., Litt, T., Schiebel, V., Taha, N., Waldmann, N.D., DSDDP Scientific Party, 2015. Evidences for centennial dry periods at ~3300 and ~2800 cal. yr BP from micro-facies analyses of the Dead Sea sediments. Holocene 25, 1358-1371.

Neugebauer, I., Müller, D., Schwab, M.J., Blockley, S., Lane, C.S., Wulf, S., Appelt, O., Brauer, A., 2021. Cryptotephras in the Lateglacial ICDP Dead Sea sediment record and their implications for chronology. Boreas 50 (3), 844-861.

Stein, M., Ben-Avraham, Z., Goldstein, S.L., 2011. Dead Sea deep cores: A window into past climate and seismicity. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 92, 453-454

How to cite: Kearney, R., Schwab, M. J., Neugebauer, I., Pickarski, N., and Brauer, A.: The TephroMed project: Precise synchronising of two key palaeoclimatic ICDP records of the eastern Mediterranean using tephra, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-468, 2022.

EGU22-4751 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

Data treatment and systematic analysis of MC-ICP-MS 230Th/238U-dating of secondary carbonates 

Inga Kristina Kerber, Fabian Kontor, René Eichstädter, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Sophie Warken, and Norbert Frank

Carbonate based archives, such as speleothems and cold-water corals, yield valuable information on past states of the climate system. The key chronometer to access the deposition times of these archives is 230Th/U dating, typically measured using multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometers (MC-ICP-MS). Here, we present our Python-based data treatment, correction and age calculation algorithm equipped with a graphical user interface (GUI) which ensures reproducibility and allows for customized calculation constants. We outline the relevance of proper data outlier treatment and review hardware settings such as fade-out times of Faraday cups (FC).  Furthermore, we systematically analyse the effect of variation in different MC-ICP-MS raw data corrections as tailing and process blank on the accuracy of the atomic ratios 230Th/238U and 234U/238U and the ages. To do so, three speleothem samples of different isotopic concentrations and ages were employed. We find that already a variation in tailing of 10 % causes a deviation on the permille level from the actual age for older samples (~150 ka), whilst younger samples are hardly affected. Process blank (instrumental background) measurements in turn affect the youngest samples strongest, as we found that an unnoticed increase of 50 % of the process blank results in a deviation on the percent level for the youngest sample (few hundred years). On contrary, hydride correction is minor for all samples, thus all time scales. In conclusion, the methods presented here permit routine precision levels of isotope analysis in the order of 5 ε units (1 ε-unit = 10-4).

How to cite: Kerber, I. K., Kontor, F., Eichstädter, R., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., Warken, S., and Frank, N.: Data treatment and systematic analysis of MC-ICP-MS 230Th/238U-dating of secondary carbonates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4751, 2022.

EGU22-8328 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

Strong changes in depositional conditions during the Late Glacial and the Holocene along the northern Argentina Continental Margin: a multiproxy approach. 

Anne-christin Melcher, Elda Miramontes, Walter Geibert, Susann Henkel, Henriette Wilckens, Thomas Pape, Male Köster, Jessica Volz, Thomas Frederichs, Graziella Bozzano, Cristiano Chiessi, Nnamdi Chukwuebuka Chidolue, Orock Shelly Ngui, Tilmann Schwenk, and Sabine Kasten

We investigated sediments from three different depositional environments along the northern Argentine continental margin to assess the main processes controlling sediment deposition since the last glacial period. Further, we evaluated how different depositional conditions affect (bio)geochemical processes within sediments. Sediment cores were collected during expedition SO260 in 2018[1]. Two sites are located at ~1100 m water depth north and south of the Mar del Plata Canyon (N- and S-Middle Slope Site). Another site is situated at the lower continental slope at 3600 m water depth (Lower Slope Site). Reliable age constraints of sediments deposited during the last glaciation at the Argentine margin are difficult to obtain due limited amounts of carbonate. We overcame this issue by combining radio-isotope analyses (14C,230Thex) with sedimentological, geochemical and magnetic data demonstrating that all sites experienced distinct changes over time.

Both, N- and S-Middle Slope Sites, record at least the last 30 ka. The S-Middle Slope Site is dominated by continuously organic carbon-starved and winnowed sandy deposits, which according to geochemical and magnetic data leads to insignificant sulfate reduction and sulfidation of iron (oxyhydr)oxides. Glacial sedimentation rates at the Middle Slope increase northwards suggesting a decrease in bottom-current strength. The N-Middle Slope Site records a transition from the last glacial period, dominated by organic carbon-starved sands, to the early deglacial period when mainly silty and organic carbon-rich sediments were deposited between 14-15 ka BP. Concurrently, glacial sedimentation rates of ~50 cm/ka significantly increased to 120 cm/ka. We propose that this high sedimentation rate relates to lateral sediment re-deposition by current-driven focusing as response to sea level rise. Towards the Holocene, sedimentation rates strongly decreased to 8 cm/ka. We propose that the distinct decrease in sedimentation rates and change in organic carbon contents observed at the N-Middle Slope Site caused the nonsteady-state pore-water conditions and deep sulfate-methane-transition (SMT) at 750 cm core depth. The Lower Slope Site records the last 19 ka. Continuously high terrigenous sediment input (~100 cm/ka) prevailed during the Deglacial, while sedimentation rates distinctly decreased to ~13 cm/ka in the Holocene. Here, pore-water data suggest current steady-state conditions with a pronounced SMT at 510 cm core depth. Our study confirms previous geochemical-modelling studies at the lower slope, which implied that the observed SMT fixation for ~9 ka at specific depth relates to a strong decrease in sedimentation rates at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition[2].

During the Holocene, total organic and inorganic carbon contents, inorganic carbon mass accumulation rates and XRF Si/Al ratios (preserved diatom flux) increase at our sites. We relate this to increased primary production in surface waters and less terrigenous input along the continental margin. Our multidisciplinary approach presents improved age constraints at the northern Argentine Margin and demonstrates that lateral/vertical sediment transport and deposition was strongly linked to Glacial/Interglacial variations in bottom currents, seafloor morphology, sea level and sediment supply. The dynamic depositional histories at the three sites still exert a significant control on modern sedimentary (bio)geochemical processes.

 

[1]Kasten et al. (2019).Cruise No. SO260. Sonne-Berichte.

[2]Riedinger et al. (2005).Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta. 69.

 

How to cite: Melcher, A., Miramontes, E., Geibert, W., Henkel, S., Wilckens, H., Pape, T., Köster, M., Volz, J., Frederichs, T., Bozzano, G., Chiessi, C., Chidolue, N. C., Ngui, O. S., Schwenk, T., and Kasten, S.: Strong changes in depositional conditions during the Late Glacial and the Holocene along the northern Argentina Continental Margin: a multiproxy approach., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8328, 2022.

EGU22-8743 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

Using LANDO as a universal wrapper for applying multiple age-depth modeling systems for sediment records from Arctic lake systems 

Gregor Pfalz, Bernhard Diekmann, Johann-Christoph Freytag, Liudmila Syrykh, Dmitry A. Subetto, and Boris K. Biskaborn

Refined dating techniques and high-precision radiocarbon dating have enabled more accurate age controls for paleoenvironmental reconstruction of lake systems. However, low bioproductivity and the influence of old carbon have a profound impact on radiocarbon dating series of non-varved sediment records from Arctic lakes. Geochronological tools such as software systems for age-depth modeling provide sophisticated justifications for age-depth relationships. But because there are many different tools available with varying underlying mathematical methods and models, the model output can show diverging results, e.g., for problematic sediment cores with scatter age dating points. A detailed comparison of the results of individual modeling system is therefore often tedious and potentially error-prone. Due to time constraints and a lack of alternative options, users typically only select and apply one modeling system to provide a geochronological timeframe for paleoenvironmental interpretation. Therefore, we introduce our “Linked age and depth modeling” (LANDO) approach that links five modeling systems (Bacon, Bchron, clam, hamstr, Undatable) in a single multi-language Jupyter Notebook. LANDO reduces the effort of using established modeling systems for both single and multiple dating series and makes the results directly comparable. In addition, we introduce an ensemble age-depth model that uses the output from all models to create a data-driven, semi-informed age-depth relationship. In our talk we will highlight our adapted fuzzy change point method, in which we used independent proxy data to evaluate the performance of each modeling system in representing lithological changes. LANDO is already publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/GPawi/LANDO.

How to cite: Pfalz, G., Diekmann, B., Freytag, J.-C., Syrykh, L., Subetto, D. A., and Biskaborn, B. K.: Using LANDO as a universal wrapper for applying multiple age-depth modeling systems for sediment records from Arctic lake systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8743, 2022.

EGU22-8868 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

The radiocarbon reservoir age of coastal Greenland waters 

Christof Pearce, Karen Søby Özdemir, Ronja Cedergreen Forchhammer, Henrieka Detlef, and Jesper Olsen

Radiocarbon (14C) dating is the standard method for obtaining the age of marine sediments of Holocene and late Pleistocene age. For accurate calibrations, however, this tool relies on precise knowledge of the local radiocarbon reservoir age of the surface ocean, i.e. the regional difference (ΔR) from the average global marine calibration dataset. This parameter has become impossible to measure from modern material samples because of 14C contamination from extensive testing of thermo-nuclear bombs in the second half of the twentieth century. The local reservoir age can thus only be calculated from the radiocarbon age of samples collected before AD 1950 or from sediment records containing absolute age markers, derived from e.g. tephrochronology or paleomagnetism.

Knowledge of the marine reservoir age around Greenland is sparse and relies on work by a few studies, represented by measurements clustered in local patches. In this study we add new radiocarbon measurements on samples from historical mollusk collections from Arctic expeditions of the late 19th and early 20th Century. The 92 new samples are from central east Greenland and the entire western Greenland coast. Although the new data is mostly coastal, it includes a few deeper sites from the Labrador Sea and northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, where deep waters were found to be very young. Together with existing measurements, the new results are used to calculate average ΔR values for different regions around Greenland, all in relation to Marine20, the most recent radiocarbon calibration curve. Despite the significant addition of new measurements, very few data exist for southeastern Greenland, while no data at all is available for the Arctic Ocean coast in northern Greenland.

How to cite: Pearce, C., Özdemir, K. S., Forchhammer, R. C., Detlef, H., and Olsen, J.: The radiocarbon reservoir age of coastal Greenland waters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8868, 2022.

EGU22-9533 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

Analyzing Ca-41 sample at E-16 abundance level with cold atom trap techniques 

Tian Xia, Tong-Yan Xia, Wei-Wei Sun, Hui-Min Zhu, Wei Jiang, and Zheng-Tian Lu

On earth, Calcium-41 is produced as a cosmogenic isotope via neutron capture process, leaving a natural isotopic abundance of 10-15 on earth surface. Calcium is also of vital importance for the metabolism of biological organisms. Consequently, analysis of the long lived radioactive isotope Calcium-41 is of great importance in geoscience, archeology and life sciences. The half-life of Calcium-41 is 1.03 x 105 years. It is a good candidate in dating rock and bone samples ranging from 50,000 to 1,000,000 years old.

The available techniques for trace analysis of Calcium-41 include accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) and resonance ionization mass spectroscopy (RIMS). The detection limit of RIMS is on the level of 10-11 due to the interference of Potassium-41, which is difficult to remove from the sample. The analysis with high-energy AMS is more expensive than the table top apparatus, and it also faces similar problem as RIMS method.

We develop an atom trap trace analysis(ATTA) apparatus for Calcium-41 analysis to the sensitivity of 10-16 abundance level by one day of single atom counting. ATTA uses laser tuned at the resonant wavelength for a specific element and isotope to slow down and capture single atom by fluorescence radiation. It has a very high selectivity of element and isotope, which is more advantageous than AMS and RIMS to avoid isobar interference. ATTA has been used in analysis of Krypton-81, Argon-39 dating of the hydrological samples. This work on high sensitivity Calcium-41 analysis is very promising in dating the geochemical sample to determine the exposure ages of rocks or in cosmochemistry for investigations on terrestrial ages.

How to cite: Xia, T., Xia, T.-Y., Sun, W.-W., Zhu, H.-M., Jiang, W., and Lu, Z.-T.: Analyzing Ca-41 sample at E-16 abundance level with cold atom trap techniques, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9533, 2022.

EGU22-11178 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

Geochronologic methods for dating coral microatolls in the Philippines 

Andrew Mitchell, Joanne Lim, Anandh Gopal, Aron Meltzner, Andrew Chan, Gina Sarkawi, Xinnan Li, Ace Matthew Cantillep, Loraine Faye Sarmiento, Junki Komori, Tsai-Luen Yu, Chuan-Chou Shen, Shou-Yeh Gong, Jennifer Weil-Accardo, Kathrine Maxwell, Ke Lin, Yanbin Lu, Xianfeng Wang, and Noelynna Ramos

Coral microatolls allow for the reconstruction of relative sea level (RSL) and the inference of tectonic deformation along tropical coastlines over the Holocene. Microatolls track RSL with unparalleled vertical precision, and their annual banding allows us to count years precisely over an individual coral’s lifetime; however, RSL histories reconstructed from multiple corals depend on accurate and precise radiocarbon (14C) or uranium-thorium (230Th) ages.

We collected coral microatoll slabs from sites in Ilocos Region, northwestern Luzon, Philippines, and dated them with 14C and 230Th techniques. Notably, initial RSL reconstructions for some sites disagreed markedly depending on the dating technique used. Attempts to replicate geochronologic analyses have shown that the coral skeletons are susceptible to diagenesis, complicating efforts to accurately determine coral ages.

We are developing a strategy to overcome this limitation. We extracted multiple samples from each microatoll slab for paired 14C and 230Th dating. The number of annual bands separating any dated sample was used to further constrain the age of the coral; by subtracting the number of years from each dated sample, samples taken from different parts of the slab can produce independent estimates of the outermost preserved band. After excluding anomalously young replicate 14C ages and samples flagged as partly calcified by x-ray diffraction, we find that 230Th ages from a single coral disagree at 4σ in 4 of 8 cases, whereas calibrated 14C dates overlap at 2σ in 8 of 9 cases for an arbitrary radiocarbon marine reservoir correction, ∆R = 0 yr.

Using OxCal and the Marine20 calibration curve, we apply Bayesian statistics to combine 14C and 230Th ages, to estimate ∆R, and to determine the coral ages using the best available data. We further analyze the ∆R value for each coral, and account for overdispersion and underdispersion, whilst generating a ∆R value per site, and an overall ∆R value (inclusive of all sites). We find no statistically significant difference in ∆R for each site, and we calculate an overall ∆R of -155 ± 117 yr for sites in Ilocos Region since the mid-Holocene, though century-scale variability in ∆R may occur.

Additionally, to improve the reliability of our dates, our final dating strategy in OxCal is to apply the previously determined ∆R, to a code that places the corals in sequence (based on precise elevation measurements, morphological similarities, and coral die-down events), along with the 14C dates that are dated to the outermost preserved band.

How to cite: Mitchell, A., Lim, J., Gopal, A., Meltzner, A., Chan, A., Sarkawi, G., Li, X., Cantillep, A. M., Sarmiento, L. F., Komori, J., Yu, T.-L., Shen, C.-C., Gong, S.-Y., Weil-Accardo, J., Maxwell, K., Lin, K., Lu, Y., Wang, X., and Ramos, N.: Geochronologic methods for dating coral microatolls in the Philippines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11178, 2022.

EGU22-11331 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

High resolution luminescence dating of the Süttő loess-paleosol sequence (MIS 6-2) to create an age depth model and calculate mass accumulation rates - as input data for paleoclimate models 

Novothny Ágnes, Sipos György, Filyó Dávid, Surányi Gergely, Végh Tamás, Csonka Diána, Bartyik Tamás, Magyar Gergő, Újvári Gábor, and Horváth Erzsébet

Loess-paleosol sequences are among the most important and detailed terrestrial records of local climate and environmental changes during the Pleistocene. The Carpathian Basin can offer a unique opportunity to investigate temporal and spatial variations in dust accumulation, since 20-25% of its area is covered by loess and the thickness of these material is considerable (80-90 m at max).

High-resolution data are available for some loess sections (Jingbian, Sanbahuo, Toshan, Dunaszekcső) making it possible to develop reliable age-depth models and to calculate more precise mass accumulation rates (MARs), being among the most important input data of paleoclimate models. However, these measurements are mostly limited at around 50 k age, because they are based on radiocarbon or quartz luminescence ages.  In our project, the 20 m thick loess-paleosol profile at Süttő, in the northern part of the Carpathian Basin, was investigated first. More than 130 luminescence and some radiocarbon samples were collected during the sampling campaign during the winter of 2020-21. A systematic sampling for porosity/density measurement was also carried out parallel to luminescence sampling.

This profile was previously dated by Novothny et al. using multiple aliquot additive dose Infrared Stimulated Luminescence (IRSL), single aliquot regeneration IRSL with fading correction, and it resulted in the deposition period of the dust during MIS 6 - MIS 2. The luminescence ages in this study are calculated based on the Optically Stimulated Luminescence signal of quartz for the younger part of the sequence and using the post-Infrared IRSL signal of polymineral fine-grains for the older than ~50 ka part of the sequence. The samples were collected from every 20 cm, and every 10th samples are considered as primary or benchmark samples and therefore complete luminescence tests, residual dose, a-value, and fading measurements are carried out on them. The secondary samples are only measured by shortened measurement routine to optimize the measurement strategy and save measurement time.

Age-depth modelling will be carried out using an R-package specially developed for the Bayesian and inverse modelling of luminescence ages. Based on the constructed age-depth models and the already available datasets MARs will be calculated for each MI stages.

Luminescence properties and variation of dose rate may also have a paleo-environmental relevance, e.g. the luminescence sensitivity of the quartz fraction can refer to the provenance of the dust. Dose rate measurements will be performed by two Canberra type gamma spectrometers equipped with a GX2018 extended range Ge detector and a MiDose alpha/beta counter, which also enables microdosimetric analyses and comparison between the different kinds of detectors.

The research was supported by the NKFIH project K 135509.

How to cite: Ágnes, N., György, S., Dávid, F., Gergely, S., Tamás, V., Diána, C., Tamás, B., Gergő, M., Gábor, Ú., and Erzsébet, H.: High resolution luminescence dating of the Süttő loess-paleosol sequence (MIS 6-2) to create an age depth model and calculate mass accumulation rates - as input data for paleoclimate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11331, 2022.

EGU22-11906 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

Constraining Last Glacial Maximum bedrock surface temperatures in the Western Alps using thermoluminescence paleothermometry. 

Joanne Elkadi, Rabiul H. Biswas, Vjeran Visnjevic, Florence Magnin, Benjamin Lehmann, Georgina E. King, and Frédéric Herman

Our ability to quantify past climate conditions is crucial for understanding and predicting future climate scenarios as well as landscape evolution. One of the most drastic climatic changes in Earth’s history was the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) where a significant area of the planet’s surface was covered in ice (Clark et al., 2009). However, most reconstructions of the Earth’s past climate rely on the use of climate proxies (e.g. Jones and Mann, 2004 for a review), which are particularly poorly preserved in terrestrial settings previously covered by ice- thus limiting the applicability of existing methods.

Here, we apply feldspar thermoluminescence (TL) surface paleothermometry (Biswas et al., 2018; 2020) to better constrain the temperature history of exposed bedrock surfaces since the Last Glacial Maximum to present day. The aim of this study is to contribute towards a more detailed understanding of glacial and interglacial temperature fluctuations across the Central and Western Alps. Feldspar TL paleothermometry is a recently developed technique that exploits the dependence of trapped charge on temperature (Biswas et al., 2018). The trapped charge is sourced from feldspar’s crystalline lattice. While a TL signal can be extracted between room temperature and 450°C, traps sensitive to typical surface temperature variations (e.g.10°C) are found between 200°C and 250°C (Biswas et al., 2020). As a result, five thermometers (200°C to 250°C in 10°C intervals) can be used together as a multi-thermometer, and subsequently combined with a Bayesian inversion approach to constrain thermal histories over the last50 kyr (Biswas et al., 2020).

The temperature histories of bedrock samples collected down two vertical transects adjacent to the Gorner (Switzerland) and the Mer de Glace (France) glaciers, which have been exposed progressively since the LGM, will be presented. Preliminary results suggest a temperature difference of ∼10 °C in both locations, which is promising and in agreement with past surface temperatures obtained from other studies.

References:

Biswas, R.H., Herman, F., King, G.E., Braun, J., 2018. Thermoluminescence of feldspar as a multi-thermochronometer to constrain the temporal variation of rock exhumation in the recent past. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 495, 56-68.

Biswas, R.H., Herman, F., King, G.E., Lehmann, B., Singhvi, A.K., 2020. Surface paleothermometry using low temperature thermoluminescence of feldspar. Climate of the Past, 16, 2075-2093.

Clark, P. U., Dyke, A. S., Shakun, J. D., Carlson, A. E., Clark, J., Wohlfarth, B., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and McCabe, A. M., 2009. The Last Glacial Maximum. Science, 325 (5941), 710-714.

Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., 2004. Climate over past millennia. Reviews of Geophysics, 42, 2004.

How to cite: Elkadi, J., Biswas, R. H., Visnjevic, V., Magnin, F., Lehmann, B., King, G. E., and Herman, F.: Constraining Last Glacial Maximum bedrock surface temperatures in the Western Alps using thermoluminescence paleothermometry., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11906, 2022.

EGU22-12232 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

Phases of peatland carbon accumulation in the southern mid-latitudes 

Zoë Thomas, Haidee Cadd, Chris Turney, Heather Haines, Chris Marjo, Lorena Becerra Valdivia, Steffi Carter, and Paul Brickle

Creating high resolution chronologies in sediment sequences is important for understanding past carbon-climate dynamics, including accurately dating the timing of climate events, and calculating carbon accumulation changes through time. Here we present >100 14C dates from UNSWs high-throughput MICADAS (Turney et al. 2021) that help answer key questions about carbon-climate dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere. Peatlands from the southern mid-high latitudes have an important role in the global carbon budget but are underrepresented in global syntheses due to paucity of data. Developing accurate age-depth models from peat sequences is notoriously difficult. Outliers are common, with peat being susceptible to issues such as root penetration and in-wash of sediment. With careful consideration to site selection (Thomas et al. 2019) and material preparation (e.g. sieving out root and rootlet material), the age-depth models presented here demonstrate stratigraphic integrity with no evidence of significant outliers, providing robust and detailed chronologies to enable a range of scientific questions to be answered.

To better constrain the understanding of southern peatland dynamics, we collected and radiocarbon-dated 25 basal peats from across sub-Antarctic islands of the South Atlantic region, doubling the existing available data. We then collated basal peat radiocarbon ages from >35°S and analysed their temporal and spatial distribution. We find two distinct phases of peat formation, at ~16,000 cal years BP and ~13,000 cal years BP, independent of northern hemisphere peat growth. Well-constrained age models from these regions (including a 6 m peat sequence with 55 14C dates) show changes in carbon accumulation rates that are consistent with these phases. Potential drivers of these phases include growth disruption via the Antarctic Cold Reversal, and the latitudinal movement of the southern hemisphere westerly winds, with implications for future carbon storage in these under-studied regions.

 

References

Thomas, Z.A., Turney, C.S.M., Hogg, A., Williams, A.N., Fogwill, C.J., 2019. Investigating Subantarctic 14 C Ages of Different Peat Components: Site and Sample Selection for Developing Robust Age Models in Dynamic Landscapes. Radiocarbon 61, 1–19. doi:10.1017/rdc.2019.54

Turney, C., Becerra-Valdivia, L., Sookdeo, A., Thomas, Z.A., Palmer, J., Haines, H.A., Cadd, H., Wacker, L., Baker, A., Anderson, M., Jacobsen, G., Meredith, K., Chinu, K., Bollhalder, S., Marjo, C., 2021. Radiocarbon protocols and first intercomparison results from the Chronos 14Carbon-Cycle Facility, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. Radiocarbon 63(3), 1003–1023. doi:10.1017/RDC.2021.23

How to cite: Thomas, Z., Cadd, H., Turney, C., Haines, H., Marjo, C., Becerra Valdivia, L., Carter, S., and Brickle, P.: Phases of peatland carbon accumulation in the southern mid-latitudes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12232, 2022.

EGU22-13260 | Presentations | CL5.1.4 | Highlight

Absolute dating of deep ice cores with argon and krypton isotopes. 

Amaelle Landais, Anaïs Orsi Orsi, Elise Fourré Fourré, Roxanne Jacob, Ilaria Crotti, Florian Ritterbusch, Zheng-Tian Lu, Guo-Min Yang, and Wei Jiang

In the search for very old ice, finding the age of the ice is a key parameter necessary for its interpretation. Most ice core dating methods are based on chronological markers that require the ice to be in stratigraphic order. However, the oldest ice is likely to be found at the bottom of ice sheets, where the stratigraphy is disturbed, or in ablation areas, where the classical methods cannot be used. Absolute dating techniques have recently been developed to provide new constraints on the age of old ice. In particular, 81Kr measurements provide strong dating constraints for the old ice cores. Still, these measurements are limited in deep ice cores because of the large sample size required (5-6 kg). In addition to 81Kr dating, we discuss here the analytical performances of a new technique for 40Ar dating, which allows us to provide a reliable age with 80g of ice rather than 800g, as previously published. Finally, we present two applications for the 81Kr and 40Ar dating on the bottom of the TALDICE and Dome C ice cores.

How to cite: Landais, A., Orsi, A. O., Fourré, E. F., Jacob, R., Crotti, I., Ritterbusch, F., Lu, Z.-T., Yang, G.-M., and Jiang, W.: Absolute dating of deep ice cores with argon and krypton isotopes., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13260, 2022.

EGU22-13299 | Presentations | CL5.1.4

U-series dating of water-table fluctuations in Devils Hole cave (Nevada, USA) over the last 800,000 years 

Simon Dominik Steidle, Kathleen Wendt, R. Lawrence Edwards, Yuri Dublyansky, and Christoph Spötl

234U-238U is a powerful geochronometer that can provide absolute ages of secondary carbonates over a greater interval of time than the well-established 230Th-U. In this study, we apply 234U-238U dating techniques to subaqueous calcite deposits in Devils Hole cave, located in the Amargosa Desert (Nevada, USA). Subaqueous calcite deposits record paleo water table elevations within the cave. Previous work used 230Th-U dating techniques to reconstruct fluctuations in the local water table over the last 350,000 years (Wendt et al. 2018). We have extended the Devils Hole water table record up to and beyond the 230Th-U dating limit using both 230Th-U and 234U-238U dating techniques. Precise control (±60.5‰) of the initial 234U/238U ratio is possible due to its low variability and high correlation with δ13C and δ18O (Li et al., 2020). Resulting 234U-238U age uncertainties are on the order of ±16,000 years for 800,000-year old calcite. The new 234U-238U ages allow us to extend the Devils Hole water-table record across the full range of deposition. The resulting 800,000-year record reveals local water-table fluctuated on glacial-interglacial times scales, reaching maximum heights of 20m above modern-day levels. The observed orbital- to millennial-scale fluctuations are interpreted to be primarily driven by climate. Assessing the sensitivity of the Devils Hole water table to various climate modes is key to predicting future water availability in this water-stressed region.

 

Wendt, K. A., Dublyansky, Y. V., Moseley, G. E., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H. & Spötl, C., 2018, Moisture availability in the southwest United States over the last three glacial-interglacial cycles Science Advances, 4, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau1375.

Li, X.; Wendt, K. A.; Dublyansky, Y.; Moseley, G. E.; Spötl, C. & Edwards, R. L., 2020 Novel method for determining 234U-238U ages of Devils Hole 2 cave calcite, Geochronology, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2020-26

How to cite: Steidle, S. D., Wendt, K., Edwards, R. L., Dublyansky, Y., and Spötl, C.: U-series dating of water-table fluctuations in Devils Hole cave (Nevada, USA) over the last 800,000 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13299, 2022.

EGU22-614 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

Evaluating statistical downscaling for daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Argentina 

Rocio Balmaceda-Huarte and Maria Laura Bettolli

Empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) under the perfect prognosis approach was carried out to simulate daily maximum (Tx) and minimum temperatures (Tn) in the different climatic regions of Argentina. In this regard, three ESD techniques: analogs (AN), generalized linear models (GLM) and neural networks (NN) were evaluated considering multiple predictor sets with a variety of configurations driven by three different reanalysis. ESD models were cross-validated with folds of non-consecutive years (1979-2014) and then evaluated in a warmer set of years ( 2015-2018). The focus of the assessment of the ESD models was put on some marginal and temporal aspects of Tx and Tn. Depending on the aspect analyzed, AN ,GLM or NN models were more/less skillful but no method fulfilled all the features of both predicand variables. In this sense, the predictor set and model configuration were key factors. The different predictor structures (point-wise, spatial-wise and combinations of them) introduced the main differences for each ESD method, regardless of the predictand variable, region and reanalysis choice. In addition, the differences observed in ESD models due to the reanalysis choice were notably lower than the ones obtained due to changes in the statistical family and model structure. In the case of predictor variables, no improvements were observed in Tx and Tn simulations when a more complex predictor set was considered. In the case of Tn, models’ skills considerably increased when humidity information was included in the predictor set.  Our results showed that downscaling models were able to capture the general characteristics of Tx and Tn in all regions, with better performance in the latter variable. Overall, promising results were obtained in the evaluation of the ESD models in Argentina which encourage us to continue exploring their potential in different applications. 

How to cite: Balmaceda-Huarte, R. and Bettolli, M. L.: Evaluating statistical downscaling for daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Argentina, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-614, 2022.

EGU22-737 | Presentations | CL5.1.5 | Highlight

MIdAS---MultI-scale bias AdjuStment 

Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Wei Yang, and Klaus Zimmermann

Bias adjustment is the practice of statistically transforming climate model data in order to reduce systematic deviations from a reference data set, typically some sort of observations. There are numerous proposed methodologies to perform the adjustments -- ranging from simple scaling approaches to advanced multi-variate distribution based mapping. In practice, the actual bias adjustment method is a small step in the application, and most of the processing handles reading, writing and linking different data sets. These practical processing steps become especially heavy with increasing model domain size and resolution in both time and space. Here, we present a new implementation platform for bias adjustment, which we call MIdAS (MultI-scale bias AdjuStment). MIdAS is a modern code implementation that supports features such as: modern Python libraries that are suitable for large computing clusters, state-of-the-art bias adjustment methods based on quantile mapping, "day-of-year" based adjustments to avoid artificial discontinuities, and also introduces cascade adjustment in time and space. The MIdAS platform has been set up such that it will support development of methods aimed at higher resolution climate model data, explicitly targeting cases where there is a scale mismatch between data sets. In this presentaton, we describe the MIdAS assumptions and features, and present results from the main evaluation of the method for different regions around the world. We also present the most recent development of MIdAS towards different parameters.

How to cite: Berg, P., Bosshard, T., Yang, W., and Zimmermann, K.: MIdAS---MultI-scale bias AdjuStment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-737, 2022.

EGU22-882 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

How soil, water, and crop change along with farm sizes: insights from a new high-resolution farm-size specific and crop-specific map covering 56 countries 

Han Su, Barbara Willaarts, Diana Luna Gonzalez, Maarten S. Krol, and Rick J. Hogeboom

Over 608 million farms exist around the world, occupying 36.9% of global land and 72% of annual freshwater withdrawals. These farms are highly diverse and heterogeneous. More than 80% of them are smaller than 2 hectares and they only utilize around 20% of farmlands but support millions of livelihoods in the rural area. Many datasets are available describing the global crops, soil conditions, and water availability. A few of them are farm-size specific. There is a lack of a global overview on how the soil-water-agriculture system is different across farm sizes.
This study aims to explore how soil, water, and crop change along with farm sizes. Specifically, we used the current best available databases on cropland extent, farm size structure, crop-specific harvested area, and field size distribution to develop a gridded, farm-size specific, and crop-specific harvested area map for 56 countries, representing half global cropland, using a downscaling algorithm. The resulting maps were validated by empirical data and compared to previous similar studies. We then overlapped the farm-size specific, and crop-specific map with global soil and water scarcity maps to explore differences between small and large farms on planted crops, soil nutrient availability, and level of water scarcity.
Our results show, in comparison to larger farms, smaller farms plant more pulses, roots and tubers, vegetables, and fewer oilcrops, sugar crops, and fodder crops. The majority of small farms do not have severe limitations on soil nutrient availability, but they do face severe water scarcity. Large farms, on the other hand, do not confront severe water scarcity but do face severe limitations on soil nutrient availability. Small farms may also be less capable of adapting to water scarcity through irrigation. However, there is still spatial variation in our results. Our results can help to further differentiate the sustainable soil, water, and agriculture management for small and large farms. 

How to cite: Su, H., Willaarts, B., Luna Gonzalez, D., S. Krol, M., and J. Hogeboom, R.: How soil, water, and crop change along with farm sizes: insights from a new high-resolution farm-size specific and crop-specific map covering 56 countries, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-882, 2022.

EGU22-1043 | Presentations | CL5.1.5 | Highlight

The added value of high-resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations to describe daily wind speed over Europe 

María Ofelia Molina, Joao Careto, Claudia Gutiérrez, Enrique Sánchez, and Pedro Soares


In the context of the CORDEX project, an ensemble of regional climate simulations of high resolution on a 0.11º grid has been generated for Europe with the objective of improving the representation of regional to local-scale atmospheric phenomena. However, such simulations are computationally expensive and do not always reveal added value.

In this study, a recently proposed metric (the distribution added value, DAV) is used to determine the added value of the available EURO-CORDEX high-resolution simulations at 0.11º for daily mean wind speed compared to their coarser-gridded 0.44º counterparts and their driving global simulations, from hindcast and historical experiments. The analysis is performed using observations data as a reference. Furthermore, the use of a normalized metric allows for a spatial comparison among different regions and time periods.

In general, results show that RCMs add value to their forcing model or reanalysis, but the nature and magnitude of the improvement on the representation of wind speed vary depending on the model, the region or the season. We found that most RCMs at 0.11º outperform models at 0.44º resolution in terms of their quality to represent measured wind speed PDF. However, the benefits of downscaling are not as clear in the upper tail of the wind speed.
At regional scale, higher DAVs are obtained at 0.11º than 0.44º resolution for all subdomains studied, particularly over the Mediterranean, the Iberian Peninsula and the Alps. With altitude, the 0.11º models represent better the locations below 50 m and above 350 m, while the 0.44º models under-perform with increasing altitude. Overall, DAVs are higher at 0.11º than at 0.44º resolution, probably due to a better performance of local-scale feedbacks at high resolution.

How to cite: Molina, M. O., Careto, J., Gutiérrez, C., Sánchez, E., and Soares, P.: The added value of high-resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations to describe daily wind speed over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1043, 2022.

EGU22-2720 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

Beyond the usual suspects P&T: deriving multivariate high-resolution transient forcings for land surface models 

Jean-Philippe Vidal, Pere Quintana Seguí, and Santiago Beguería

Climate projections downscaled with statistical methods often focus on precipitation (P) and temperature (T) variables, which is not sufficient to run offline land surface models (LSMs) and derive hydrological projections based on both water and energy budgets.

This work extends a proposition by Clemins et al. (2019) to build on a multivariate high-resolution reanalysis dataset to infer projected ancillary variables from P & T projections based on analogue resampling. The refined method is a multisite and multivariate resampling method based on analogy of spatially distributed P & T daily anomalies. Anomalies are derived with respect to a baseline monthly climatology. The method thus makes use of spatial and multivariate consistency available in the archive reanalysis to supplement projections for additional variables and for a possibly extended spatial domain. The baseline climatology is considered as linearly transient for temperature variables to deal with anomalies not experienced during the archive period, and large-scale additional transient changes in T are passed on ancillary variables based on present-day anomaly relationships.

The new proposed method is exemplified for the Greater Pyrenean Region (GPR) defined as all basins draining the Pyrenees mountain range and extending over France, Spain, and Andorra. The archive reanalysis used here is the 2.5 km gridded SAFRAN-PIRAGUA surface reanalysis for the Pyrenees over 1965-2005 derived from existing SAFRAN reanalyses over France (Vidal et al., 2010) and Spain (Quintana-Seguí et al., 2017).

The projections considered here are 6 CMIP5 GCMs run under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 previously downscaled and including only P, TN, and TX variables and not available north of the Pyrenees (Amblar Francés et al., 2020). Applying the resampling method over the GPR led to 2.5 km gridded projections of daily time series of all variables required by LSMs. Results show – on top of an increasing temperature and a decreasing precipitation over the 21st century – a decrease in wind speed, relative humidity, and infrared radiation, and an increase in visible radiation and evapotranspiration. These projections come with a large inter-GCM dispersion and more pronounced changes under RCP8.5

This work was funded by the Interreg V-A POCTEFA 2014-2020 through the EFA210/16 PIRAGUA project.

 

Amblar-Francés, M. P., Ramos-Calzado, P., Sanchis-Lladó, J., Hernanz-Lázaro, A., Peral-García, M. C., Navascués, B., Dominguez-Alonso, M., Pastor-Saavedra, M. A. & Rodríguez-Camino, E. (2020) High resolution climate change projections for the Pyrenees region. Advances in Science and Research, 17, 191-208

Clemins, P. J., Bucini, G., Winter, J. M., Beckage, B., Towler, E., Betts, A., Cummings, R. & Chang Queiroz, H. (2019) An analog approach for weather estimation using climate projections and reanalysis data. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 58, 1763-1777

Quintana-Seguí, P., Turco, M., Herrera, S. & Miguez-Macho, G. Validation of a new SAFRAN-based gridded precipitation product for Spain and comparisons to Spain02 and ERA-Interim (2017) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 2187-2201

Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Baillon, M. & Soubeyroux, J.-M. A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the Safran system (2010) International Journal of Climatology, 30, 1627-1644

How to cite: Vidal, J.-P., Quintana Seguí, P., and Beguería, S.: Beyond the usual suspects P&T: deriving multivariate high-resolution transient forcings for land surface models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2720, 2022.

The Hellmann rainfall recorders have been one of the primary instruments of the rainfall intensity measurement, mainly in the countries of the central part of Europe, during the 20th century. These water level measurement-based rainfall recorders ensure the continuity of measurement by periodically emptying siphoned measurement cylinder. During the emptying, the measurement is paused, resulting in under-measurement. The duration and number of emptying can be known, and the correction of under-measurement can be adjusted if the registration ribbon is available. In the case of historical data, the registration ribbon is often unavailable, and only extracted values of the most intensive periods of rainfalls can be gained from databases. A procedure for correcting such kinds of data is shown, and also the influence of the correction of Hellmann-Fuess recorder’s data on the IDF curves.

The procedure is based on the method published in 2002 by Luyckx and Berlamont, which was compiled based on the physical process of the siphoning, and it assumed the existence of the original records (ribbons), with the exact time of siphoning. The extracted data tables nor time nor number of siphoning was registered, so the method of Luyckx and Berlamont for the data correction cannot be used. The proposed procedure’s principal is the estimation of the number and length of pauses in the extracted measurement interval. These estimated data make passible to fix the rainfall quantity and intensity for the given interval. The measurement cylinder of the device is generally not empty at the beginning of the most intensive period of rainfall. The water level is assumed as a uniformly distributed probability variable what can be estimated with its expected value. The raw data comprise underestimation in all cases, so the raw data represent only the possible minima of the plausible intensity values. The fixed data result in the expected value of the plausible intensities, which are sometimes higher and sometimes lower than the actual intensity values, with the same probability; so, if there are a high number of fixed data, the positive and negative deviations diminish the errors statistically. The use of the correction formula is presented with the parameters of a Hellmann-Fuess rainfall writer. The correction range has been the highest over ten years of average recurrence, and its measure was 10%. For 30 minutes and longer sampling intervals, the magnitude of the correction is not relevant. After that, the correction is based on statistical estimation, the exact value of the rainfall intensity cannot be retrieved, but the underestimation can be decreased significantly. The fixed data modify the IDF curves as well, and in this way, the effect of climate change can be investigated more appropriately.

How to cite: Racz, T.: Correction of siphoning error in processed historical rainfall intensity data, a case study of data measured by Hellmann-Fuess type rainfall recorder, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3709, 2022.

EGU22-3769 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

Daily 1 km gridded temperature and precipitation in Bhutan 

Fabian Lehner and Herbert Formayer

Gridded climatological data derived for Bhutan from internationally available data sets either come at very low spatial resolution, do not provide daily data or contain few in-situ measurements. We present a newly developed daily high-resolution (1 km) gridded data set for Bhutan covering the years 1996 to 2019 for precipitation and for maximum and minimum temperature (BhutanClim) and compare it with state-of-the-art global observation data sets. As input, we used quality controlled and homogenized data from up to 67 weather stations from the National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology of Bhutan (NCHM).

The spatial interpolation method of temperature is based on methods that have already been successfully implemented in Austria, Switzerland and Germany. It allows non-linear lapse rates and considers geographical obstacles in the interpolation. The new climatology benefits from the use of local measurements and shows plausible small scale spatial patterns. Compared to other available state-of-the-art data sets BhutanClim there are new features especially in the precipitation field: Some valleys in central Bhutan border a dry climate classification according to Köppen-Geiger.

How to cite: Lehner, F. and Formayer, H.: Daily 1 km gridded temperature and precipitation in Bhutan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3769, 2022.

EGU22-4305 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

Providing useful local climate information through statistical bias correction 

Muralidhar Adakudlu, Elena Xoplaki, Heiko Paeth, Chibuike Ibebuchi, and Daniel Schoenbein

Daily precipitation and temperature simulated by regional climate models carry large systematic biases owing to multiple factors including inadequate model resolution and limitations in the parameterization of important processes. Reduction of these biases is a crucial process in rendering the model information more reliable for climate change and hydrological assessments. We present an evaluative study of bias correction of daily precipitation and temperature from an ensemble of regional climate models from the EUR-11 CORDEX domain (CLMCOM-CCLM4, GERICS-REMO15, SMHI-RCA4, DMI-HIRHAM5, and CanRCM4 driven by MPI-ESM). This is an important milestone within a larger framework of the RegiKlim consortium towards generating high-resolution bias corrected and statistically downscaled fields for providing useful climate information in specific areas in Germany. A quantile delta mapping (QDM) approach is applied to adjust the biases in the distribution characteristics of precipitation and temperature. The delta factor, derived from the ratio of the projected value of a given quantile to that of the present value, is applied to the standard transfer function so that the modelled climate change signal can be preserved. High-resolution (0.1°) gridded dataset from the German Weather Service, DWD-HYRAS, is used as the reference for bias correcting the variables. The impact of the bias adjustment on important parameters such as the number and frequency of wet/dry and cold/hot spells are quantified. The response of the quantile mapping method to the seasonal variations in the dominant driving processes is further investigated. 

How to cite: Adakudlu, M., Xoplaki, E., Paeth, H., Ibebuchi, C., and Schoenbein, D.: Providing useful local climate information through statistical bias correction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4305, 2022.

EGU22-4717 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

Assessing the Suitability of A Posteriori Random Forests for Downscaling Climate Change Projections 

Mikel N. Legasa and Rodrigo Manzanas

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods are extensively used to provide high-resolution climate information based on the coarse outputs from Global Climate Models (GCM). In the context of climate change and under the perfect prognosis approach, these methods learn the relationships that link several large-scale predictor variables coming from a reanalysis (e.g. humidity) with the local variables of interest (e.g. precipitation) over a reference historical period. Subsequently, the so-learnt relationships are applied to GCM predictors to obtain downscaled projections for a future period.

In a recent paper, Legasa et al. (2021) introduced a posteriori random forests (AP-RFs), a modification of classical random forests which make use of all the data in the leaves to estimate any probability distribution. Following the experimental framework proposed in Experiment 1 of VALUE (http://www.value-cost.eu, Gutiérrez et al. 2018), the study showed that AP-RFs obtained reliable stochastic time-series over several locations in Europe using reanalysis predictors. As compared to more classical techniques like generalized linear models (GLMs), this study concluded that AP-RFs are a competitive SD method in terms of different forecast aspects, with one of their key advantages being the ability to automatically perform predictor/feature selection. This avoids the task of manually selecting the most adequate large-scale variables and geographical domain of interest, something which, at present, relies on human expertise and constitutes a substantial source of uncertainty for downscaling climate change projections.

Nevertheless, an assessment of the suitability of AP-RFs for producing local climate change projections from GCM predictors is still lacking. This work aims to fill this gap by providing a fair comparison of AP-RFs with GLMs and state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which were recently shown to provide satisfactory results for this task (Baño-Medina et al. 2021). We build on VALUE’s Experiment 2a and train the different methods considered using ERA-Interim “perfect” predictors. Afterwards, the EC-Earth model is used to generate downscaled projections for 86 locations distributed across Europe under a strong emission scenario, the RCP8.5. 

Our preliminary results suggest that AP-RFs generate plausible downscaled future projections of precipitation. In particular, differently to traditional GLMs, which are very sensitive to the predictor set considered and may produce implausible climate change projections (Manzanas et al. 2020), this technique yields delta changes consistent with those obtained from both the raw EC-EARTH outputs and the CNNs.

References
Baño-Medina, J., Manzanas, R. & Gutiérrez, J.M. On the suitability of deep convolutional neural networks for continental-wide downscaling of climate change projections. Clim Dyn 57, 2941–2951 (2021). doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05847-0

Gutiérrez, J.M., Maraun, D., Widmann, M. et al. An intercomparison of a large ensemble of statistical downscaling methods over Europe: Results from the VALUE perfect predictor cross-validation experiment. Int. J. Climatol. 2019; 39: 3750– 3785. doi:  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5462

Legasa M.N., Manzanas R., Calviño, A. et al. A Posteriori Random Forests for Stochastic Downscaling of Precipitation by Reliably Predicting Probability Distributions. Submitted to Water Resources Research.

Manzanas, R., Fiwa, L., Vanya, C. et al. Statistical downscaling or bias adjustment? A case study involving implausible climate change projections of precipitation in Malawi. Climatic Change 162, 1437-1453 (2020). doi:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02867-3

How to cite: Legasa, M. N. and Manzanas, R.: Assessing the Suitability of A Posteriori Random Forests for Downscaling Climate Change Projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4717, 2022.

EGU22-6150 | Presentations | CL5.1.5 | Highlight

Downscaling UK rainfall using machine-learning emulation of a convection-permitting model 

Henry Addison, Peter Watson, Laurence Aitchison, and Elizabeth Kendon

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes in the UK [1]. Physics-based numerical simulations for creating precipitation projections are computationally expensive and must be run many times to quantify the natural variability of precipitation. Local-scale projections such as those from the Met Office's 2.2km convection-permitting model are possible [2] but the computational expense of these simulations requires trade-offs in the duration, domain size, ensemble size and emission scenarios for which to produce projections [1]. 

Here, we apply state-of-the-art machine learning methods to predict precipitation from the 2.2km model given large-scale predictors that are represented in GCMs. By conditioning on outputs from a physical model, rainfall can be downscaled in both past and future climates. We test the extent these methods can reproduce the complex spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, with which past statistical approaches struggle. We are interested in the methods’ ability to capture the distribution of extreme rainfall and to reproduce extreme events. Our methods are neural-network-based and explore generative approaches for representing the stochastic component of high-resolution precipitation. Compared to physical models, these approaches are computationally much cheaper and have a simple interface allowing them to be used to downscale other large GCM datasets. 

References 

[1] Kendon, E. J. et al. (2021). Update to the UKCP Local (2.2km) projections. Science report, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. [Online]. Available: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/ukcp18_local_update_report_2021.pdf. 

[2] Met Office Hadley Centre. (2019). UKCP18 Local Projections at 2.2km Resolution for 1980-2080, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis. [Online]. Available: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/d5822183143c4011a2bb304ee7c0baf7.

How to cite: Addison, H., Watson, P., Aitchison, L., and Kendon, E.: Downscaling UK rainfall using machine-learning emulation of a convection-permitting model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6150, 2022.

As the most severe drought over the Northeastern United States (NEUS) in the past century, the 1960s drought had pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Although a persistent wet period followed, the conditions driving the 1960s extreme drought could return in the future, along with its challenges to water management. To project the potential consequences of such a future drought, pseudo-global warming (PGW) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are performed to simulate the dynamical conditions of the historical 1960s drought, but with modified thermodynamic conditions under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP585 scenario in the early (2021-2027), middle (2041-2047) and late (2091-2097) 21st century. Our analysis focuses on essential hydroclimatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snowpack and surface runoff. In contrast to the historical 1960s drought, similar dynamical conditions will generally produce more precipitation, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack. However, we also find that although wet months do become much wetter, dry months also may become drier, meaning that wetting trends that are significant in wet months can be essentially negligible for extremely dry months. For these months, the trend towards wetter conditions provides little relief from drying. These conditions may even aggravate water shortages due to an increasingly rapid transition from wet to dry conditions. Other challenges emerge for residents and stakeholders in this region, including more extreme hot days, record-low snow pack, frozen ground degradation and subsequent decreases in surface runoff.

Although the PGW approach pursued in this study is analogous to other recent studies, there is also a pressing need to ascertain confidence in projections using the PGW method.  Most PGW studies only modify the temperature forcing since it is the most significant for driving impacts on climate, but other meteorological forcings may also impact regional climate trends. For example, the large geopotential height increments at higher atmosphere levels tend to increase the stability and weaken the precipitation events associated with typhoons.  PGW studies usually only consider the changes at the regional mean scale but ignore spatially-dependent contributions from climate change. Therefore, in order to investigate the sensitivity of PGW-based projections, additional simulations were conducted under the RCP8.5 emission scenario but with different forcing modification methods.  We thus answer three questions: Are PGW simulations sensitive to the spatial scale of climate perturbations? Besides temperature, which climatological variables are crucial to PGW simulations? And finally, how should researchers design and conduct their PGW simulations?

How to cite: Xue, Z. and Ullrich, P.: PGW projections of the returned 1960s U.S. Northeast drought and sensitivity examinations of PGW methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6745, 2022.

EGU22-7049 | Presentations | CL5.1.5 | Highlight

Dynamical Downscaling and Data Assimilation: Insights from the Case Study of the "Year Without a Summer" 1816 

Lucas Pfister, Peter Stucki, Andrey Martynov, and Stefan Brönnimann

One year after the eruption of the Tambora volcano, the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816 was characterised by extraordinarily cold periods in (Central) Europe, and it was associated with severe crop failures, food shortages, famine and socio-economic disruptions.

The summer of 1816, has been analysed based on a number of early meteorological measurements, as well as on ample documentary information. A statistical reconstruction of spatial fields with daily resolution has been conducted for Switzerland. However, this dataset encompasses only a limited set of variables. In turn, dynamical downscaling methods allow to reconstruct past weather on a higher temporal and spatial resolution. In our work, we simulate a particularly cold episode in June 1816 by downscaling data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3). The simulation uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with three nested domains for the greater Alpine region and provides hourly output with a 3-km resolution. In addition, we include recently digitised station series of temperature and pressure for a Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation in the innermost domain. Results are then validated against independent station observations.

First results suggest that dynamical downscaling and data assimilation may become a promising approach to obtain physically consistent information on past weather on a local and subdaily scale. This may hold even for extreme events in an era with a scarce network of instrumental weather observations compared to today, although erroneous results may occur. A successful application of dynamical downscaling and data assimilation for the early 19th century might open the door for a regional atmospheric reanalysis product that covers the last two centuries.

How to cite: Pfister, L., Stucki, P., Martynov, A., and Brönnimann, S.: Dynamical Downscaling and Data Assimilation: Insights from the Case Study of the "Year Without a Summer" 1816, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7049, 2022.

EGU22-7306 | Presentations | CL5.1.5 | Highlight

A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to downscale global climate models over Europe 

Julien Boé and Alexandre Mass

To characterize the impacts of climate change, robust high-resolution climate change information is generally needed. The resolution of global climate models is currently too coarse to provide directly such information. A specific spatial downscaling step is therefore generally needed, either (1) dynamical downscaling with regional climate models or (2) statistical downscaling.

In this study, we present a new hybrid statistical-dynamical downscaling approach, intended to combine the respective strengths of statistical and dynamical downscaling, while overcoming their respective limitations. This hybrid method aims to emulate regional climate models and is based on a constructed analogues method.

Contrary to dynamical downscaling, the computational cost of the method is low, allowing to downscale a large number of global climate projections and therefore to correctly assess the climate uncertainties in impact studies. Contrary to statistical downscaling, the method does not rely on the assumption that the downscaling relationship established in the present climate with observations remains valid in the future climate perturbed by anthropogenic forcings. Therefore, the hybrid approach should be as robust as regional climate models in projecting future climate change.

In this presentation, the hybrid statistical-dynamical downscaling method is first presented. Elements of evaluation, in a perfect model framework based on an ensemble of regional climate models over Europe, are then shown and discussed to demonstrate the interest of the method and its applicability to study future climate changes over western Europe. Finally, results of the application of the method to downscale global climate projections over western Europe are shown, and important implications of the results are discussed.   

How to cite: Boé, J. and Mass, A.: A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to downscale global climate models over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7306, 2022.

EGU22-7485 | Presentations | CL5.1.5 | Highlight

The Spatial Weather Generator SPAGETTA: Hard Times of its Adolescence 

Martin Dubrovsky, Ondrej Lhotka, Jiri Miksovsky, Petr Stepanek, and Jan Meitner

Stochastic weather generators (WGs) are tools for producing weather series, mimicking statistical properties of their real-world counterparts. They are often used in climate change impact experiments as a source of the data representing the present and/or future climates (alternative to RCMs and GCMs). Development of our SPAGETTA generator started in 2016 (Dubrovsky et al 2020; https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03027-z). The presentation will focus on (A) Basic details. (B) Functionalities of the generator. (C) Results obtained with the generator by now. (D) Most critical problems, which were met (and not yet satisfactorily solved) while making the generator fully operational.

A. SPAGETTA is a multivariate multisite parametric generator, which is based on autoregressive modeling (following the D. Wilks’ papers). It is designed mainly (but not solely) for use in agricultural and hydrological modeling. It may produce time series of up to 8 variables for as many as (approx.) 200 stations or grid points. Typically, it produces time series of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity and wind speed. It usually runs with a daily time step.

B. The main functionalities include: (1) It may produce arbitrarily long time series representing the climate defined by the data used for calibrating the generator (might be observational data or, for example, RCM outputs). (2) Having modified the WG parameters by the climate change scenario (typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations), SPAGETTA may produce weather series representing the future climate. In this case, one may study sensitivity of selected climatic indices to changes in various statistics (e.g. means and standard deviations of weather variables, and characteristics of temporal and spatial structure of the time series). (3) SPAGETTA may be interpolated so that it can produce weather series for sites with no observational data. (4) It can be linked with the circulation generator so that WG may better represent larger-scale (both in space and time) weather variability.

C. The results obtained with the generator by now include: (a) Validation of the generator in terms of WG parameters, various climatic indices, and outputs of hydrological model fed by the synthetic series produced by SPAGETTA. (b) Impacts of the forthcoming climate change on various climatic characteristics (RCM-based climate change scenarios were used here). Focus was put on spatial temperature-precipitation compound characteristics. (c) Validation of the interpolated generator. (d) Validation of the generator driven by the larger scale circulation generator.

D. Problems to be solved: (i) Under some circumstances (especially when a large number of the stations is used, or while interpolating the generator), matrices of the AR model imply unstable AR process which diverges to unrealistic values of weather variables. (ii) The generator underestimates the low frequency variability. Development of the larger scale circulation generator, which would eliminate this drawback, is still under development.

Only examples of the previous points will be shown in the presentation.

How to cite: Dubrovsky, M., Lhotka, O., Miksovsky, J., Stepanek, P., and Meitner, J.: The Spatial Weather Generator SPAGETTA: Hard Times of its Adolescence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7485, 2022.

EGU22-8086 | Presentations | CL5.1.5 | Highlight

Evaluating the adequacy-for-purpose of downscaling methods and products 

Wendy Parker

How should downscaling methods, and the products of downscaling, be evaluated? An adequacy-for-purpose approach attempts to determine whether a method or product can be used successfully for specific purposes of interest. Purposes can take various forms: predicting variable X in region R with a specified level of accuracy, guiding a particular policy decision, etc. Depending on the purpose, different tests or checks will be performed and different levels of performance, on different metrics, will be deemed acceptable. A product that is grossly inaccurate in some respects may nevertheless be entirely adequate for the purpose at hand. Likewise, higher-resolution products are not necessarily more adequate (or fit); it depends on whether they provide the information required for the purpose of interest and in a way that can be interpreted and employed by users.

How to cite: Parker, W.: Evaluating the adequacy-for-purpose of downscaling methods and products, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8086, 2022.

EGU22-9658 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

A machine learning approach for refining ECHAM-HAMMOZ-derived PM2.5 

Tuuli Miinalainen, Harri Kokkola, Antti Lipponen, Kari E. J. Lehtinen, and Thomas Kühn

In this study, we present our findings for correcting global model-derived surface fine particulate mass (PM2.5) concentrations with a machine learning approach. We simulated the PM2.5 concentrations with an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ, and trained a machine learning model to downscale the PM2.5 concentrations modelled for an Indian mega city, New Delhi. This way, we are able to utilize a global atmospheric model for analyzing aerosol emission mitigation effects on both Earth's energy budget and local air quality.

Similarly as with many other global-scale models, ECHAM-HAMMOZ underestimates surface PM2.5 at several urban locations. One apparent explanation for this is the coarse grid resolution of global climate models, which results in averaged aerosol concentrations over a much larger area than what urban cities typically cover. Therefore, due to averaging over a large grid box, the very high peak concentrations from urban areas can be evened out. Furthermore, the input fields describing aerosol emissions might lack information of some local emission sources, which can as well affect the simulated surface air pollution levels.

We used the random forest (RF) regression algorithm in order to downscale ECHAM-HAMMOZ-derived surface PM2.5 concentrations towards measured PM2.5 values from the New Delhi capital region in India. In addition, we applied the trained RF model to additional simulations where we had future anthropogenic aerosol emissions according to a business as usual scenario and a mitigation scenario. This allowed us to evaluate the effects of aerosol emission reductions on both global radiative balance, and on local air quality in New Delhi.

The obtained results indicate that surface PM2.5 concentrations from RF prediction correlate with the measured PM2.5 concentrations much better than the original ECHAM-HAMMOZ particulate concentrations for New Delhi region. However, with the current setup and input variables, the PM2.5 concentrations produced by the RF model seems to be lacking some of the short-term variations and very low and high values.

All in all, the downscaling method used in this project shows very promising potential, but requires further adjustment with the selection of input variables and the RF hyperparameters.

How to cite: Miinalainen, T., Kokkola, H., Lipponen, A., Lehtinen, K. E. J., and Kühn, T.: A machine learning approach for refining ECHAM-HAMMOZ-derived PM2.5, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9658, 2022.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are widely used to dynamically downscale the general circulation models (GCMs). Downscaled products can provide a clearer understanding of atmospheric processes compared to the parent models. However, several uncertainties are associated with downscaling, such as structural differences in climate models and biases in GCMs and RCMs. Post-processing methods such as univariate bias correction have been widely used to reduce the bias in the individual variable. However, these methods are applied to variables independently without considering the inter-variable dependence. In compound events such as heat stress, multiple drivers, surface air temperature (SAT), and relative humidity (RH) play crucial roles. Therefore, a multi-variable bias adjustment is necessary to retain the interdependence between the drivers for reliable information on heat stress. The present study focuses on a Multi-variable Bias Adjustment (MBA) method adapted from a topographical adjustment of SAT and RH and its impact on added values in a multi-model ensemble. We investigated added values and biases before and after adjusting the variables. There are gains and losses throughout the process of bias adjustment. Some added values show pseudo nature over some regions after the bias adjustment. Overall, the bias adjustment shows improvement in reducing bias over low-altitude urban areas, encouraging its application to assess heat stress.

How to cite: Kelkar, S. and Dairaku, K.: Investigation of added values in multi-model and multi-variable bias adjustments for heat stress assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10974, 2022.

High-quality snow is critical for the Winter Olympic Games. Snow quality is very sensitive to the changes of meteorological elements, especially temperature and humidity. Forecasts on snow quality can provide information for snow maintenance and require high-resolution meteorological forecasts. However, the complex terrain of the mountainous areas where the winter sports are often carried out could result in complex local meteorological fields, which makes it difficult to forecast. Zhangjiakou Competition Zone is one of the three competition zones for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and includes two districts: Genting snow park and Guyangshu Ski Resort. Taking Genting snow park as an example, there is a difference of about 350m in altitude in Genting snow park which covers an area of about 2×2km2, and there is an average difference of about 3℃ in hourly temperature and about 10% in hourly relative humidity at noon.

Short-term forecasts in the past Winter Olympic Games were usually based on mesoscale NWP models with a horizontal resolution of up to 1×1km. Due to the limitation of boundary layer parameterization schemes, some small-scale air processes affected by local topography cannot be caught in mesoscale models. Some MOS methods can correct the systematic bias of the models but are unable to deal with the non-systematic errors caused by these small-scale processes.

The purposes of this study were to develop statistical downscaling methods for the temperature and humidity forecasts, which are required in the snow-quality risk classification for the Zhangjiakou Competition Zone of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.  

Hourly data during 2018-2021 from 20 meteorological stations and ERA5-Land reanalysis in the study area were used for the calibration and validation of models. A decaying average method which is similar to the Kalman Filter method was applied to develop the downscaling models. To evaluate the efficiency of the models on snow-quality risk forecasts. A classification model of snow-quality risk developed by the Climate Centre of Hebei Province was applied. Snow-quality risk classification model was developed based on the four years’ meteorological and snow-quality observations in the study area, in which the risk of snow quality was classified into 4 levels: zero-risk, low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk based on the input temperature and humidity. The downscaled prediction fell into 3 cases: (1) the predicted risk level equal to the observed risk level (Accuracy); (2) the predicted risk level lower than the observed risk level (Miss); (3) the predicted risk level higher than the observed risk level (False-Alarm).

The results showed that: (1) the downscaling models can decrease the RMSE of the ERA5 by ~13% for the temperature and by ~14% for the dewpoint temperature; (2) the accuracy of the snow-quality risk classification increased from 72% to 76% on average comparing the inputs of ERA5 and the downscaled temperature and humidity. For the stations with high elevation, the ratio of False-Alarm decreased by ~13%. Further research will focus on improving the statistical model by calibrating the model for different locations and different circulation patterns.

How to cite: Yue, T., Yin, S., and Wang, H.: Statistical downscaling of temperature and humidity for snow-quality risk forecasts for Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11128, 2022.

EGU22-11296 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

Near-past and future trends of European extreme heat and heat waves from WRF downscaling experiments 

Zhuyun Ye, Ulas Im, Jesper Christensen, Camilla Geels, Marit Sandstad, Carley Iles, and Clemens Schwingshackl

In frame of the H2020-EXHAUSTION project, we present estimated heat indicators from WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) downscaling simulations for the periods of 1980-2014 and 2015-2049 at 20 km horizontal resolution over the European domain. WRF simulations are forced by the CESM2 global model simulations, using three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) future scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0, addressing different levels of mitigation and adaptation. For the period of 1980-2014, another WRF simulation forced by ERA5 is used as comparison in model validation. These near-past simulations have been rigorously evaluated with observations and reanalysis data including European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D), E-OBS, and ERA5-land for the surface air temperatures. The dynamical downscaling showed clear added value on spatial distribution related to the important coastal or orographic aspects widely present over Europe. Two heat wave indicators, the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and the Heat Wave magnitude Index daily (HWMId), and four extreme heat indicators, annual maximum temperature (TX­x), NOAA heat index (HIx), wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGTx), and universal thermal climate index (UTCIx), are used to study the heat extremes trends in Europe. During the past 35 years, TXx has been estimated to increase 2.5 °C in WRF_CESM2 and 1.4 °C in WRF_ERA5; the increasing trend is estimated to remain or slow down slightly in the next 35 years with estimated smaller increase of 1.5-2.5 °C in three scenarios. The trends of other extreme heat indicators showed very similar trends with TXx. However, future heat wave duration and magnitude present a contrasted pattern. Heat waves have been estimated to increase 11.2 days of duration, and 2.1 of magnitude during 1980-2014, very similar to the observed increase of 9.1-11 days and 1.8-2.1. Whereas in 2015-2049, heat waves duration and magnitude are estimated to increase 12.3-13 days and 2.5-4.6, respectively. These heat wave changes are also not uniform from a spatial point of view. Heat wave duration and magnitude in Southern Europe are both estimated to increase significantly faster than other zones, with rates at 1.4-2.9 times of which for the whole of Europe. Heat wave indicators in future scenarios also showed much larger interannual variations compared with the past, whereas there are no distinct differences among three mitigation scenarios for all heat indicators. In summary, these results suggested that even though the future increase of air temperatures and heat extreme indicators showed a slowing down sign compared with the near-past, whereas the severity of heat waves are estimated to increase even faster than the past under different levels of mitigation. Southern Europe is expected to be the region that needs the most attention in terms of severe future heat waves.

How to cite: Ye, Z., Im, U., Christensen, J., Geels, C., Sandstad, M., Iles, C., and Schwingshackl, C.: Near-past and future trends of European extreme heat and heat waves from WRF downscaling experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11296, 2022.

EGU22-11855 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

Testing deep learning methods for downscaling climate change projections: The DeepESD multi-model dataset 

Jorge Baño-Medina, Rodrigo Manzanas, Ezequiel Cimadevilla, Jesús Fernández, Antonio S. Cofiño, and Jose Manuel Gutiérrez

Deep Learning (DL) has recently emerged as a powerful approach to downscale climate variables from low-resolution GCM fields, showing promising capabilities to reproduce the local scale in present conditions [1]. There have also been some prospects assessing the potential of DL techniques to downscale climate change projections, in particular convolutional neural networks (CNNs) [2]. However, it is still an open question whether they are able to properly generalize to climate change conditions which have been never seen before and produce plausible results. 

Following the “perfect-prognosis” approach, we use in this study the CNNs assessed in [2] to downscale precipitation and temperature for the historical (1975-2005) and RCP8.5 (2006-2100) scenarios of  an ensemble of eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) over Europe. The resulting future projections, which are gathered in a new dataset called DeepESD, are compared with 1) those derived from benchmark statistical models (linear and generalized linear models), and 2) a set of state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCM) which are considered the “ground-truth”. Overall, CNNs lead to climate change signals that are in good agreement with those obtained from RCMs (especially for precipitation), which indicates their potential ability to generalize to future climates. Nevertheless, for some GCMs we find  that there are considerable regional differences between the “raw” and the downscaled climate change signals, an important aspect which was unnoticed in a previous work that focused exclusively on one single GCM [2]. This highlights the importance of considering  muti-model ensembles of downscaled projections (such as the one presented here) to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the suitability of DL techniques for climate change applications. Indeed, understanding the nature of the mentioned differences is necessary and future work towards this aim would imply carefully analyzing some of the assumptions made in“perfect-prognosis” downscaling (e.g., stationarity of the predictor-predictand link, adaptation of the statistical function to the climate model space). Therefore, following the FAIR (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability and Reuse) principles we have made publicly available DeepESD through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), which will allow the scientific community to continue exploring the benefits and shortcomings of DL techniques for statistical downscaling of climate change projections. 

References:

[1] Baño-Medina, J., Manzanas, R., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Configuration and intercomparison of deep learning neural models for statistical downscaling, Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 2109–2124, 2020.

[2] Baño-Medina, J., Manzanas, R., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: On the suitability of deep convolutional neural networks for continental-wide downscaling of climate change projections, Climate Dynamics, pp. 1–11, 2021

 

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge projects ATLAS (PID2019-111481RB-I00) and CORDyS (PID2020-116595RB-I00), funded by MCIN/AEI (doi:10.13039/501100011033). We also acknowledge support from Universidad de Cantabria and Consejería de Universidades, Igualdad, Cultura y Deporte del Gobierno de Cantabria via the “instrumentación y ciencia de datos para sondear la naturaleza del universo” project for funding this work. A.S.C and E.C. acknowledge project IS-ENES3 funded by the EU H2020 (#824084).



How to cite: Baño-Medina, J., Manzanas, R., Cimadevilla, E., Fernández, J., Cofiño, A. S., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Testing deep learning methods for downscaling climate change projections: The DeepESD multi-model dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11855, 2022.

EGU22-12499 | Presentations | CL5.1.5

Downscaling GCM data using a bias-correction method for the Eastern Mediterranean. 

Ezgi Akyuz, Burcak Kaynak, and Alper Unal

Climate change and air pollution are two phenomena that can no longer be considered separately. Changes in climate also alter the effects of air pollution. For example, emissions of ammonia (NH3) and non-methane organic compounds (NMVOC), which are precursors of ozone (O3) and secondary particles (PM), are drastically sensitive to temperature and humidity changes. Moreover, the impacts of O3 and secondary PMs on the climate were previously investigated. The first step for air quality modeling studies is the modeling of meteorological fields. In this study, important meteorological parameters in terms of air pollution were obtained from global climate models for a historical and future periods (SSP585). Selected parameters will be corrected and downscaled to a high resolution for Eastern Mediterranean. Then, the bias-corrected and downscaled meteorology outputs will be used in other studies related to air quality.

Countries in the Mediterranean Region are being affected significantly by the changing climate due to their location. Previously conducted studies evaluated the meteorological parameters of global climate models with low resolutions. Within the scope of this study, future estimates will be downscaled to a selected domain in Eastern Mediterranean with a spatial resolution of 4×4 km2 However, recent studies have argued that a bias-correction method should be implemented to the selected meteorological parameters prior to downscaling. In previous studies, CMIP simulation outputs were evaluated for Turkey with or without downscaling. There are also studies that biases between observation/reanalysis and GCM model data are calculated. However, according to our knowledge, evaluation of downscaled climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Region using a bias-correction method has not been conducted yet. Here, a bias correction methodology (Xu et al. (2021)) was used, and an ensemble was generated by choosing appropriate global climate models which are compatible with reanalysis data for the selected region.

Native global climate model simulation results and non-linear long-term global climate model simulation trends were evaluated as the preliminary investigation. The temperature means of the global climate models (GCMs) and ERA5 reanalysis data were compared globally and for the EMEP domain. Initial findings showed underestimation or overestimation for the same GCM depending on the selected study domain. This result highlights the importance of the selection of the model for the study domain for weather generation and the models to be chosen for the ensemble. After calculating the long-term non-linear trend, the standard deviations were calculated for the interannual variability for the GCM and ERA5. For the historical period (1979-2014), annual temperature means of BCC-CSM2-MR, CMCC-CM2-SR5, EC-EARTH3, EARTH3-Veg, FIO-ESM-2-0, and KIOST-ESM showed similarity between ERA5 (r2 > 0.70). Summer and fall months show mostly higher correlations compared to other seasons. 22 model ensemble global domain (EMEP Domain) temperature mean, minimum and maximum values were found as 7.62 (6.09), 7.18 (5.28), and 8.12oC (6.89oC), respectively. The values for reanalysis data are 7.95 (6.92), 7.57 (5.94), and 8.27 oC (7.87oC).

How to cite: Akyuz, E., Kaynak, B., and Unal, A.: Downscaling GCM data using a bias-correction method for the Eastern Mediterranean., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12499, 2022.

EGU22-2141 | Presentations | GM2.4

Decoupling between fluvial aggradation-incision dynamics and paleo-denudation rates during the last glacial cycle, Crete, Greece 

Richard Ott, Dirk Scherler, Karl Wegmann, Mitch D'Arcy, Susan Ivy-Ochs, Marcus Christl, and Christoph Vockenhuber

The impact of Quaternary climate cycles on denudation as well as fluvial aggradation and incision is debated, especially in regions that did not experience glaciation. Here we present a record of paleo-denudation rates, and geochronologic data constraining aggradation and incision from the Sfakia and Elafonisi alluvial sequences on the island of Crete, Greece. We report seven new optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and ten new radiocarbon ages, as well as eight 10Be and eight 36Cl denudation rates from modern and terrace sediments. At the Elafonisi fan system, we identify four periods of aggradation, where marine isotope stages (MIS) 2, 4, and likely 6 correspond to aggradation periods, and MIS 1, 3, and likely 5e are characterized by incision. The dating of paleoshorelines indicates constant uplift over the past 71 ka, at rates of 1.2 mm/a. Aggradation occurred throughout the entire glacial cycle at the Sfakia fan, followed by up to 50 m of incision in the past 10 ka. Chronological constraints indicate that aggradation rates were particularly high during MIS 2 and 4, analogous to the Elafonisi fan system. However, our paleo-denudation rates indicate mostly constant denudation throughout the past 80 ka; with only two samples indicating an up to 50% increase in paleo-denudation rates compared to modern rates. Nearby climate and vegetation records show that MIS 2, 4, and 6 were characterized by cold and dry climate with sparse vegetation, whereas forest cover and wet conditions prevailed during MIS 1, 3, and 5. Our data suggest that variations in climate and vegetation cover were not sufficient to markedly alter landscape-wide denudation rates, but that changes in hydroclimate and vegetation exerted a strong control on the aggradation-incision behavior of the drainages. During relatively cold stages, low vegetation cover and river sediment transport capacity led to aggradation, whereas the increased river transport capacity during relatively warm stages caused subsequent incision. We therefore hypothesize that the studied catchments show a decoupling between transport-limited streams responding to climate forcing and near-steady hillslope denudation.

How to cite: Ott, R., Scherler, D., Wegmann, K., D'Arcy, M., Ivy-Ochs, S., Christl, M., and Vockenhuber, C.: Decoupling between fluvial aggradation-incision dynamics and paleo-denudation rates during the last glacial cycle, Crete, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2141, 2022.

  Quantifying the rate and timing of landscape evolution is required to better understand the interaction between tectonic and surface processes and the potential influence of climate change on million-year time scales. Pecube is a 3D thermo-kinematic model capable of predicting low-temperature thermochronometric ages based on variable rock exhumation within an evolving topography driven by tectonic and surface processes. Pecube has been widely used over the past two decades to constrain the timing and rate of relief development, model paleo topographies, establish robust sampling strategies, and track the evolution of glaciated landscapes. Since its initial development by Braun (2003), many new functionalities have been added to Pecube to incorporate lower-temperature thermochronometers (e.g., OSL), lateral advection along faults, and the ability to provide topography evolution scenarios resulting from a surface processes model (SPM). Although widely used, the current version of Pecube (1) still necessitates the use of a non-user-friendly terminal, and (2) lacks sample-specific thermochronometric predictions, including radiation-damage dependent helium diffusion models for (U-Th)/He-based thermochronometers. These two shortcomings may limit the use of Pecube by the community.

  Here, we introduce a newly developed graphical user-friendly interface for Pecube, called PecubeGUI, which incorporates new tools intended to clearly guide the user through all model input parameters for all functionalities of Pecube. Among them, the user is now able to simply load topographic files from a digital elevation model (DEM) or a SPM, and interactively set (i) the topographic evolution scenario by direct visual inspection, and (ii) the corresponding steady-state geotherm. PecubeGUI also enables the ability to predict ages in specific locations on a DEM with the use of up-to-date models for helium production and diffusion in apatite. For a single synthetic grain, the user can choose between several diffusion models, and can define zonation. In addition, 4He/3He release spectra can be predicted and compared with observed data.

  To illustrate the capabilities of PecubeGUI, we present a case-study that couples a glacial landscape evolution model (iSOSIA, Egholm, 2011) with updated Pecube functionalities. We use a forward modelling approach to assess the capability and sensitivity of apatite (U-Th)/He and 4He/3He thermochronometric data, to constrain the spatial and temporal distribution of glacial erosion at exceptionally high-resolutions in the Rhone valley (Swiss Alps) over multiple Quaternary glaciations. There, apatites show a potential for variable damage accumulation (eU = 12-280 ppm), implying variable single-grain closure temperatures. Previous modelling works suggest glacial incision at 1 Ma (Valla et al., 2011; Valla et al., 2012). With the observed data as constraints, we discuss how single-grain age predictions with detailed production-diffusion models (including the effect of radiation damage), can be used to (1) strategically establish the most effective sampling sites; and (2) constrain the spatial and temporal distribution of glacial erosion at the scale of a landscape, as well as at individual sampling sites.

How to cite: Bernard, M., van der Beek, P., Colleps, C., and Amalberti, J.: PecubeGUI: a new graphical user interface for Pecube, introduction and sample-specific predictions of apatite (U-Th)/He and 4He/3He data in the Rhone valley, Switzerland., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2277, 2022.

We present published bedrock apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) ages from the Northern Apennines to provide new insights into the spatial and temporal pattern of erosion across the mountain range. The spatial pattern of time-averaged erosion rates derived from AFT ages illustrates similar erosion rates on the Ligurian and Adriatic sides of the range. However, erosion rates derived from AHe ages are higher on the Adriatic side of the range, relative to the Ligurian side. The temporal pattern of time-averaged erosion rates illustrates an overall decrease in erosion through time on the Ligurian side, but suggests an increase in erosion through time on the Adriatic side. These results are corroborated by an analysis of paired AFT and AHe thermochronometer samples, which illustrate that erosion rates have generally increased through time on the Adriatic side, but have decreased through time on the Ligurian side. We infer that such regional scale-differences must be controlled by first-order features of the Northern Apennines, so we present an updated kinematic model to understand what could control these differences. Using imposed erosion rates on the Ligurian side that are a factor of two slower relative to the Adriatic side, we demonstrate that cooling ages and maximum burial depths are able to replicate the pattern of measured cooling ages across the orogen and estimates of burial depth from vitrinite reflectance data. These results suggest that horizontal motion is an important component of the overall rock motion in the wedge, and that the asymmetry of the orogen has existed for at least several million years.

How to cite: Erlanger, E., Fellin, M. G., and Willett, S.: Reexamining the temporal and spatial patterns of exhumation and erosion in the Northern Apennines: new insights from low-temperature thermochronometers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2342, 2022.

EGU22-2762 | Presentations | GM2.4

Biotic, lithologic and geomorphic control on sediment production from detrital apatite geochemistry and thermochronology 

Andrea Madella, Christoph Glotzbach, and Todd Ehlers

Where, and how much sediment is produced and transported in hillslope and fluvial systems depends upon the topographic slope, soil production rate, lithology, precipitation, and biota. In this study we investigate the patterns of sediment production in two catchments of the Coastal Cordillera (Chile) situated in semi-arid and mediterranean bioclimates. We do this by measuring 29 bedrock and 6 detrital apatite trace elements and apatite cooling ages with the U/Pb, fission track, U-Th(-Sm)/He thermochronometric systems. Detrital samples were collected from fluvial sediment and provide a catchment-scale view of the upstream areas. The compositional and geochronologic data measured in bedrock are analized with a Principal Component Analysis and a clustering algorithm to find the parameters that are best suited to trace sediment provenance at the sub-catchment scale. Next, we analyse the distribution of the same parameters within the detritus to infer the relative contribution of different areas within the catchments. Results indicate that spatial variations of bedrock cooling age and geochemical composition are significant even within small-scale (10-100 km2) granitoid catchments. Therefore, the combination of detrital apatite geochronology and geochemistry allows discrimination among source areas with acceptable confidence. Preliminary results show that the impact of vegetation distribution, hillslope angles and bedrock weatherability on sediment production differs in the two bioclimatic settings. In particular, hillslope angles and lithology exert a greater impact in the semi-arid catchment.

How to cite: Madella, A., Glotzbach, C., and Ehlers, T.: Biotic, lithologic and geomorphic control on sediment production from detrital apatite geochemistry and thermochronology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2762, 2022.

EGU22-3441 | Presentations | GM2.4

Quantifying drainage-divide migration from orographic rainfall over geologic timescales: Sierra de Aconquija, southern Central Andes 

Taylor Schildgen, Peter van der Beek, Mitch D'Arcy, Duna Roda Boluda, Orr Elizabeth, and Wittmann Hella

Drainage-divide migration, controlled by rock-uplift and rainfall patterns, may play a major role in the geomorphic evolution of mountain ranges. However, divide-migration rates over geologic timescales have only been estimated by theoretical studies and remain empirically poorly constrained. Geomorphological evidence suggests that the Sierra de Aconquija, on the eastern side of the southern Central Andes, northwest Argentina, is undergoing active westward drainage-divide migration. The mountain range has been subjected to steep rock trajectories and pronounced orographic rainfall for the last several million years, presenting an ideal setting for using low-temperature thermochronometric data and exhumation rates derived from in situ produced 10Be to explore its topographic evolution.

We perform three-dimensional thermal-kinematic modeling of previously published thermochronometric data spanning the windward and leeward sides of the range to explore the most likely structural and topographic evolution of the range. We find that the thermochronometric data can be explained by scenarios involving drainage-divide migration alone, or by scenarios that also involve changes in the structures that have accommodated deformation through time. By combining new 10Be-derived catchment-average denudation rates with geomorphic and stratigraphic constraints on fault activity, we conclude that the evolution of the range was likely dominated by west-vergent faulting on a high-angle reverse fault underlying the range, together with westward drainage-divide migration at a rate of several km per million years. Our findings place new constraints on the magnitudes and rates of drainage-divide migration in real landscapes, quantify the effects of orographic rainfall and erosion on the topographic evolution of a mountain range, and highlight the importance of considering drainage-divide migration when interpreting thermochronometer age patterns.

How to cite: Schildgen, T., van der Beek, P., D'Arcy, M., Roda Boluda, D., Elizabeth, O., and Hella, W.: Quantifying drainage-divide migration from orographic rainfall over geologic timescales: Sierra de Aconquija, southern Central Andes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3441, 2022.

EGU22-3544 | Presentations | GM2.4

Synthesizing uniform 3He concentrations in accessory minerals for 4He/3He thermochronology: Current status, complications, and prospects 

Cody Colleps, Peter van der Beek, Julien Amalberti, and Maxime Bernard

High-resolution 4He/3He thermochronometry involves stepped-heat degassing of U and Th-bearing accessory minerals with simultaneous measurement of natural 4He (non-uniform bulk distribution) and synthetically produced 3He (uniform bulk distribution) at each step. The ratio evolution of 4He/3He measured across all heating steps reflects the spatial distribution of 4He within a single crystal, which can be coupled with its (U-Th)/He date to model high-resolution low-temperature thermal histories. Although an exceptionally powerful tool to elucidate disputed drivers of crustal exhumation in various geologic settings (e.g., climatic vs. tectonic mechanisms), the 4He/3He method is commonly hindered by the necessity to uniformly synthesize 3He within crystals at concentrations >1x109 atoms/mg for single grain analysis. This high concentration is required to ensure that the 3He released at initial heating steps—where the most important geological information is preserved—is sufficiently above blank-detection limits of modern, highly-sensitive noble gas mass spectrometers. Synthesis of high 3He concentrations is conventionally achieved via the spallation of targeted nuclei during high-energy proton irradiations to fluences >1x1015 protons/cm2; however, facilities capable of, or willing to, efficiently carry out such anomalously high-fluence irradiations using previously defined methods remain few and far between. Here, we summarize the current state-of-the-art of synthesizing uniform distributions of 3He in geologic materials, and present preliminary 4He/3He measurements on gem-quality Durango apatite using conventional and alternative approaches to induce 3He to sufficient concentrations. Alternative approaches include (1) in-vacuum proton-irradiation with a narrowly focused proton beam to maximize intensities for short-duration experiments, and (2) direct uniform 3He implantation via sample exposure to an energy-modulated 3He beam. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of both conventional and alternative methods in regards to 3He uniformity, concentration limitations, crystal lattice damage, efficiency, post-experiment ‘cool-down’ times, and accessibility. Both alternative approaches are considerably less demanding on particle accelerator facilities, and can significantly reduce the post-experiment waiting time required to safely handle activated samples. Accordingly, these approaches, if proven successful, yield great promise to improve the accessibility and efficiency of routine 4He/3He analyses for geologic applications.

How to cite: Colleps, C., van der Beek, P., Amalberti, J., and Bernard, M.: Synthesizing uniform 3He concentrations in accessory minerals for 4He/3He thermochronology: Current status, complications, and prospects, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3544, 2022.

The Southern Alps of New Zealand are among the world’s most active mountain ranges, with extremely high rates of exhumation and erosion. This place is therefore well suited to observe and comprehend sediment production at catchment scale and to study Quaternary landscape evolution.

Common methods to quantify erosion of a landscape include estimation of the suspended sediment yield (SSY), which is a proxy for short-term erosion rates, or measurement of cosmogenic 10Be concentrations in fluvial sediments, a demanding method that offers reliable erosion rates representative of larger time-span (millennial). Here, we propose single-grain post-infrared luminescence (SG-pIRIR) as a potential new proxy for erosion rates.  We test this approach by comparing SG-pIRIR results with catchment-wide erosion rates obtained using conventional 10Be measurements for eight catchments of the New Zealand Southern Alps.

10Be results demonstrate North-South and East-West gradients in erosion rates, ranging from 0.2 to 4.0 mm/yr, with the fastest towards South-West. The North-South gradient is consistent with existing data of Larsen et al., (2014), that present even higher rates to the south of our study area. We suggest that spatial gradient in erosion rate reflects a tectonic uplift gradient related to northward segmentation of the Alpine fault, coupled to an East-West climatic gradient, related to orographic effect.

Recently, luminescence signals have been proposed as a new tool to study exhumation, exposure histories and erosion, with various approaches including luminescence-depth profiles (Sohbati et al., 2018), luminescence thermochronometry (Herman and King, 2018) or direct relations between quartz luminescence sensitivity and erosion rates (Sawakuchi et al., 2018). Here, we tested the potential of equivalent dose (De) distributions obtained using SG-pIRIR as a proxy for catchment wide erosion rates.

We measured SG-pIRIR De distributions from modern fluvial sediments at the outlets of the eight catchments where we estimated 10Be erosion rates. For each of the samples, we calculated the fraction of grains whose luminescence signal is saturated (Bonnet et al., 2019; Guyez et al., 2022) and the fraction of well-bleached grains from De distributions. In addition, we characterized the De distribution using central age model (CAM; Galbraith et al., 1999) and bootstrapped minimum age model (MAM; Cunningham et al., 2012). We found a relationship between those four proxies and erosion rates obtained from conventional 10Be approaches, but also with SSY (Adams, 1980; Hicks et al., 2011) and channel steepness index. These results confirm the potential for this new tool to inform on catchment-wide erosion rates.

Further work should be undertaken to test this relation in other settings, and also to better comprehend the interplay of processes affecting luminescence signals of feldspar grains in fluvial deposits, with the perspective to use it as an independent reliable tool to reconstruct and possibly quantify erosion and transport processes in a wide range of fluvial settings.

How to cite: Guyez, A., Bonnet, S., Reimann, T., Wilkinson, C., Carretier, S., Norton, K., and Wallinga, J.: Does luminescence of modern fluvial sediments vary according to erosion rate? A comparison between single-grain feldspar p-IRIR dose distributions and 10Be cosmogenic catchment-wide erosion rate in the Southern Alps of New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5390, 2022.

*Georges Aumaître, Didier L. Bourlès, Karim Keddadouche

Located in northeastern France, the Vosges Mountains (VM) belongs to these Hercynian ranges strewn across the European alpine foreland. Peaking at ~1425 m of elevation, it presents four contrasting primary characteristics. Firstly, the geological basement allows a bipartite N-S subdivision: the Palaeozoic southern part (crystalline Vosges) composed of various igneous, metamorphic and sedimentary rocks contrasts with the much more homogeneous Triassic cover in the northern part (sandstone Vosges). Secondly, a clear E-W topographic gradient is reflected by steep hillslopes on the eastern side (Alsace) and gently-sloping hillslopes on the western side (Lorraine). Thirdly, a sharp W-E precipitation gradient (>1000mm/yr) is recorded between the windward and the leeward side. Finally, the imprint left by Quaternary climatic fluctuations yields a N-S gradient: whereas the crystalline Vosges hosted abundant valley glaciers, the sandstone Vosges were void of ice cover.

Owing to these advantageous characteristics, this contribution aims to present the first data of catchment-wide denudation at the massif scale and to explore the long-term interactions between denudation, lithological control, morphometry and climatic forcing. Modern stream sediments from 21 river catchments draining the whole massif were sampled for in situ 10Be and 26Al concentration measurements at the outlet of their mountainous reach. The mean Channel Steepness Index (ksn) was computed as a morphometric “predictor” of denudation rates. Groups of lithologically uniform catchments were statistically identified based on their lithological surficial proportions.

Catchment-wide denudation rates inferred from cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al concentrations range from 33 to 83 mm/ka and 38 to 337 mm/ka, respectively. The [26Al]/[10Be] ratio range from 1.43 to 7.96, highlighting a complex exposure history for the glaciated catchments. At the massif scale, results show (i) no relation between denudation and steepness, (ii) a strong positive relation between denudation and precipitations when lithological groups are considered and (iii) a negative relation between the surficial proportion of fluvio-glacial deposits in the catchment and the [26Al]/[10Be] ratio.

To our knowledge, this contribution is the first massif-scale attempt to quantify denudation in an European low- to medium-altitude mountain range. This is especially relevant as long-term landscape evolution in the Variscan belt, by contrast to the numerous works focusing on denudation in high-mountains ranges (e.g. the Alps), has been regularly disregarded in recent geomorphological studies. Importantly, whereas a vast majority of studies measuring denudation rates rely on 10Be concentrations only, this study highlights the need of using a pair of cosmogenic nuclides (i.e. 26Al/10Be) to check whether stream sediments in formerly glaciated catchments have experienced complex exposure history.

How to cite: Jautzy, T., Rixhon, G., Braucher, R., Schmitt, L., and Team*, A.: Measuring 10Be and 26Al concentrations in stream sediments from the Vosges Mountains (NE France) to explore the respective role of lithologic, topographic and climatic control on massif-wide denudation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5435, 2022.

EGU22-6716 | Presentations | GM2.4

A dammed palaeo-lake at the middle Yarlung Tsangpo River, Tibet 

Hai-Ping Hu, Jin-Liang Feng, and Georgina King

The Yarlung Tsangpo River follows the Indus-Tsangpo suture through the southern Tibetan Plateau, and then becomes the Brahmaputra, following a bend into India through the Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge. In the middle reaches, narrow gorges alternate with broad valleys (Zhang, et al. 1998). In the section with steep and narrow gorges, the river is easily dammed by landslides, glaciers and/or moraines, rock avalanches and debris flows. Palaeo-lake sediments were discovered in the broad Xigazê valley and Dazhuka-Yueju gorge in the middle reach of the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. The river was likely dammed by a glacier and/or moraine at the eastern end of the Dazhuka-Yueju gorge. AMS 14C and OSL ages of lacustrine sediments indicate the palaeo-lake was formed during the period from ~30.2 to 32.3 cal. kyr BP, and failed at ~13.2 cal. kyr BP (Hu et al., 2018). The elevation of the dammed lake was 3811 m a.s.l., and its length, maximum water depth, and volume were 185 km, 211 m, and ~22.55 km3, respectively (Hu et al., 2022). The volume of the sediment was ~11.56 km3, which was calculated from the dam location, sediment surface elevation, and the ASTER GDEM2 data. Therefore, the backwater volume was 10.99 km3, and the peak flood possibly exceeded 3.4 × 105 m3/s during the dam failure. The dammed palaeo-lakes in the vallyes downstream of the middle Yarlung Tsangpo River were also discharged during ~13 ka, and they were likely interconnected by hydrological processes. Hence, the failure of the dam and related flooding from the Dazhuka-Yueju gorge probably triggered a chain reaction of dam failures downstream, forming a megaflood. However, the dammed event in the Dazhuka-Yueju valley probably had a limited effect on the landforms at downstream because of the presence of another dammed palaeo-lake in the broad Zetang valley. So the ages of the dammed palaeo-lakes at the middle Yarlung Tsangpo River need to constrained more precisely.

References

Hu, H.-P., Feng, J.-L., Chen, F., 2018. Sedimentary records of a palaeo-lake in the middle Yarlung Tsangpo: Implications for terrace genesis and outburst flooding. Quaternary Science Reviews, 192, 135-148.

Hu, H.-P., Liu, J.-H., Feng, J.-L., Ye, C.-S., Lv, F., Chen, F., Gong, Z.-J., Chen, L.-Q., Du, D.-D., 2022. Geomorphic processes of a dammed palaeo-lake in the middle Yarlung Tsangpo River, Tibet. Science of the Total Environment, 811C, 151949.

Zhang, D.D., 1998. Geomorphological problems of the middle reaches of the Tsangpo River, Tibet. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 23(10): 889-903.

How to cite: Hu, H.-P., Feng, J.-L., and King, G.: A dammed palaeo-lake at the middle Yarlung Tsangpo River, Tibet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6716, 2022.

EGU22-7356 | Presentations | GM2.4

Geomorphometric constraints on the development of the Wutach capture 

Wolfgang Schwanghart, Stefanie Tofelde, Dirk Scherler, Richard Ott, Andreas Ludwig, and Angela Landgraf

The Wutach capture is one of the most prominent river captures in central Europe. Subsidence of the Upper Rhine Graben and subsequent incision of tributaries to the Hochrhein led to the piracy of the Danube-Wutach draining the Feldberg region of the Black Forest at ~18 ka. The sudden lowering of the base level led to headward incision of the Wutach and the formation of numerous fluvial knickpoints along the trunk river and its tributaries. These knickpoints represent excellent markers that enable testing several hypotheses including the role of bedrock erodibility, the impact of deglaciation, and mechanisms that control the diversion of the Wutach. Here we present a geomorphometric approach predicated on the stream-power incision model to test these hypotheses. We show that the spatial distribution of knickpoints upstream of the capture is consistent with predictions by the stream-power model. Including proxy information about deglaciation change the parameters of the model, but only slightly increase the fit between modelled and observed knickpoint locations. By comparing estimates of the erodibility derived from knickpoints to those derived from catchment-wide denudation rates in nearby catchments, we observe differences of the order of two magnitudes. The difference in these estimates may can be explained by several processes including channel-bed armouring by sediment. We conclude that stream power parameters derived from the spatial distribution of knickpoints in the Wutach catchment are representative of exceptional (short-term) erosional conditions right after the capture event, rather than of landscape evolution on longer-term geological timescales.

How to cite: Schwanghart, W., Tofelde, S., Scherler, D., Ott, R., Ludwig, A., and Landgraf, A.: Geomorphometric constraints on the development of the Wutach capture, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7356, 2022.

In global geochemical cycles, the solid flux from the continent to the ocean is usually reduced to the input of sediments from rivers [1]. However, regional studies have shown that the input of sediments from rocky coast erosion may be a significant part of this flux [2]. So, it is important to consider this input into global cycles and to quantify it over different timescales.

On short-term timescales, from the year to the century, coastal erosion is currently quantified with direct measurement of the coastline recession, between successive time intervals [3]. Extrapolating on timescales longer than a thousand years is difficult. This leads to a lack of data and therefore a gap in knowledge in longer term coastal erosion [4].

A solution to quantify long-term erosion of rocky coast is to reconstruct the initial geometry of the coastline and to know the age of its formation. Volcanic islands are suitable objects for this method. Indeed, their initial shape is simple and can be easily reconstructed, and their maximum extension can be dated [5,6,7], although this age can be difficult to estimate. Thus, the topographic reconstruction of a volcanic island allows, by comparison with its current topography, the quantification of volumes lost by erosion. In turn, it becomes possible to obtain values of the rocky coast total recession on timescales from thousands to hundreds of thousands of years [8]. Moreover, the wide geographic distribution of volcanic islands provides a diversity of climatic and geodynamic settings allowing to analyze the effects of various factors on long-term coastal erosion.

Here we propose an improvement of this erosion quantification by accounting for the submarine morphology. Applying this approach for different volcanic islands, we carried out a statistical analysis of the impact of several factors that control long-term coastal erosion. This analysis allows us hierarchize these factors. This is the first step towards the formulation of long-term coastal erosion universal laws and towards the quantification of rocky coast sediment influx in global cycles.

 

[1] Milliman and Farnsworth (2013). Cambridge University Press.

[2] Regard et al. (in press).

[3] Bird (2011). John Wiley & Sons.

[4] Prémaillon et al. (2018). Earth Surface Dynamics 6, 651-668.

[5] Lahitte et al. (2012). Geomorphology 136, 148-164.

[6] Ramalho et al. (2013). Earth-Science Reviews 127, 140-170.

[7] Karátson et al. (2016). Geomorphology 253, 123-134.

[8] Bossis et al. (in press).

How to cite: Bossis, R., Regard, V., and Carretier, S.: The hierarchy of factors controlling long-term coastal erosion: a statistical approach from topographic reconstruction of volcanic islands., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8000, 2022.

EGU22-8054 | Presentations | GM2.4

Deciphering rock cooling histories in the European Alps using ESR and OSL thermochronometry 

xiaoxia wen, Melanie Bartz, Leif Anderson, and Georgina King

The impact of Quaternary glaciation on rates of erosion and the timing of Alpine valley incision remains disputed. This is mainly due to a lack of geochronological methods that cover the timespan of 103-106 years. While conventional thermochronometers like (U-Th-He) in apatite can constrain timescales of 106 years, and cosmogenic nuclide (CN) dating timescales of 101-103 years, it remains difficult to resolve changes in erosion rates at the timescale of glacial/interglacial cycles. To fill this temporal gap, we develop electron spin resonance (ESR) thermochronometry using both the Al and Ti centres in quartz. The combination of ESR and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) thermochronometry, as well as numerical modelling approaches, will allow the development of a multi-thermochronometric system to understand rock cooling histories, enabling changes in erosion rates to be related to glacial advance and retreat.

 

In this study, we focus on the western European Alps, which were intensively glaciated during the Quaternary. Three vertical transects are targeted in the Rhône valley, which is thought to have substantially deepened around 1 million years ago[1]. The first transect consists of seven quartz samples, which were used for (i) optimizing the measurement protocols (i.e., preheat conditions, dose recovery), (ii) analyzing ESR signal growth and thermal stability of the Al and Ti signals to estimate kinetic trap parameters; and (iii) inverting the ESR data to constrain rock cooling histories.

 

A series of laboratory experiments show the potential of the single aliquot regenerative dose protocol. The Al and Ti signals show similar thermal stability between different samples in the same transect and yield mid-Pleistocene ages. Preliminary inversion of the data shows that the low closure temperatures of the Al and Ti signals in quartz allow the Late Quaternary exhumation of the Alpine valleys to be resolved. Our new ESR thermochronometry results will be supported by OSL thermochronometry measurements, CN dating and also the high density of existing thermochronometric data [e.g. 1] providing new insights into the glacial incision history during the Quaternary and especially how erosion rates varied temporally under a changing climate.

 

Keywords glacial erosion; landscape evolution; ESR; European Alps

 

Reference:

[1] Valla, P.G., D.L. Shuster, and P.A. van der Beek. 2011. Significant increase in relief of the European Alps during mid-Pleistocene glaciations, Nature Geoscience. 4(10): p. 688-692.

How to cite: wen, X., Bartz, M., Anderson, L., and King, G.: Deciphering rock cooling histories in the European Alps using ESR and OSL thermochronometry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8054, 2022.

EGU22-10420 | Presentations | GM2.4 | Highlight

Intense precipitation during the African Humid Period inferred from east Saharan fossil rivers: Implications for human dispersal   

Abdallah Zaki, Georgina King, Negar Haghipour, Robert Giegengack, Stephen Watkins, Sanjeev Gupta, Mathieu Schuster, Hossam Khairy, Salah Ahmed, Mostafa El-Wakil, Saleh Eltayeb, Frédéric Herman, and Sébastien Castelltort

During Late Quaternary time, the paleoclimate of the eastern Sahara was punctuated by multiple pluvial periods, then dramatically and cyclically transformed to hyperarid conditions, receiving less than 2 mm/yr of precipitation at present. Geologists, climate modelers, and archaeologists, therefore, have used various proxies to reconstruct past climates during that time, a crucial period for human habitation and migration. These reconstructions, however, lack the precipitation pattern during those pluvial periods, which represents a significant control on weighing the hypotheses of human migrations and occupations. Here we reconstruct the chronology and paleohydrology of a set of fossil rivers expressed by ridges in the modern landscape due to differential erosion. Our 14C and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) ages of sediments preserved in these ancient rivers cluster within the last African Humid Period (AHP; ca. 14.8 – 5.5 ka BP) and hence support more significant fluvial activity during this distinct humid epoch. Based on median grain size (D50), paleochannel geometry, and drainage area, paleohydraulic reconstructions indicate that typical precipitation intensities of 55–80 mm/h occurred during sediment transport events. When combined with previous annual rainfall estimates, we find that such rainfall intensities were likely 3–4 times more frequent during the AHP. These climatic perturbations may have rendered some parts of the Nile River Valley inhospitable for occupation, driving humans to migrate away in the northwest and west of the Nile Valley between 10.2 and 7.2 ka BP. Ultimately, our results, along with the archeological data, tell a tale from the past of the dramatic climatic changes that our planet undergoes, demonstrating the critical role of climate in sustaining human populations. 

 

How to cite: Zaki, A., King, G., Haghipour, N., Giegengack, R., Watkins, S., Gupta, S., Schuster, M., Khairy, H., Ahmed, S., El-Wakil, M., Eltayeb, S., Herman, F., and Castelltort, S.: Intense precipitation during the African Humid Period inferred from east Saharan fossil rivers: Implications for human dispersal  , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10420, 2022.

EGU22-11065 | Presentations | GM2.4

Combining landscape evolution modelling and low T thermochronology to determine the driving forces of relief rejuvenation 

Fabian Dremel, Jörg Robl, Christoph von Hagke, and Kurt Stüwe

The Variscan orogeny lasted from the Late Devonian to the Early Permian and resulted in a mountain range whose remnants can be found today in North America, Northern Africa, Europe and Asia. Although the mountain range was almost completely eroded to peneplains in the Permian, today the Variscan massifs (e.g., Appalachians, Massif Central, the Black Forest, Bohemian Massif) feature hilly to mountainous topography with peak elevations exceeding 1500 metres. This indicates surface uplift during the last million years. Clearly, the latest surface uplift is unrelated to the original mountain building phase, but cause, wavelength, timing and rates are still disputed.

Several Variscan massifs are characterised by low relief surfaces, rounded hilltops and graded river profiles with low channel gradients at higher elevations, but deeply incised rivers with migrating knickpoints and steep valley flanks prone to mass wasting at lower elevations near the base level of the receiving streams. This landscape bimodality may indicate temporal and/or spatial variations in uplift rates. Although these massifs have been studied extensively, the driving forces for relief rejuvenation are still unknown.

We investigate relief rejuvenation using two approaches, landscape metrics and low-temperature thermochronometry. This allows us to constrain landscape dynamics on different timescales, with both approaches covering the post-orogenic period. We use the Bohemian Massif as pilot study area, encompassing parts of Germany, Austria, Czech Republic and Poland. First results from the geomorphic analyses allow quantifying the observed landscape bimodality, with highest ksn values at lower reaches of tributaries of the Danube River. Distinct across divide gradients in χ with low χ values on the Danube side indicate that the Danube tributaries feature a higher channel steepness on average than those of the Vltava. Assuming spatially uniform uplift rates and bedrock properties, across-divide gradients in χ may provide evidence for a northward migration of the watershed. In this case, the Danube catchment would grow at the expense of the Vltava catchment.

In addition, we compiled existing cooling ages from the Bohemian Massif to see if similar patterns can be observed on longer timescales. First results show that in the Sudetes in the NE of the Massif, cooling ages found at high altitude areas are predominantly Late Cretaceous, while in lower areas Late to Middle Paleogene cooling ages prevail. South of the Sudetes, in the Austrian Mühlviertel region, this trend seems to be reversed. Local younger ages (late Mesozoic) are found in the higher reaches, while Jurassic cooling ages dominate in the lower sections. However, the relief rejuvenation identified in the geomorphological analysis does not appear to be reflected in this thermochronological data. To reconcile these findings and determine the spatial extent of the different cooling patterns, more low-T thermochronological data is currently processed.

How to cite: Dremel, F., Robl, J., von Hagke, C., and Stüwe, K.: Combining landscape evolution modelling and low T thermochronology to determine the driving forces of relief rejuvenation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11065, 2022.

EGU22-3275 | Presentations | GI4.1

The Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder: Highlights of Three Years of Ground-based and Ship-borne Boundary Layer Measurements with Turbulence Resolution 

Diego Lange Vega, Andreas Behrendt, Christoph J Senff, Florian Späth, and Volker Wulfmeyer

Since there are only a very few suitable measurements, the thermodynamic field of the lower troposphere is mostly still Terra Incognita. To close this gap, we developed a thermodynamic profiler based on the Raman lidar technique. We call this instrument Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder (ARTHUS) (Lange et al. 2019). ARTHUS can be operated on ground-based, ship-borne and airborne platforms.

Due to an advanced design of the transmitter and the receiver, simultaneous profiling of temperature (T) and water-vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) is possible with unprecedented accuracies and resolutions. Typical resolutions are a few seconds and meters in the lower troposphere. With the measurements themselves, also the statistical uncertainties are derived. The design of the system permits measurements in all weather conditions and even in clouds and rain up to an optical thickness of approx. 2.

Stable 24/7 operations over long periods were achieved during several field campaigns and at the Land Atmosphere Feedback Observatory (LAFO) accumulating almost a year of data until now and covering a huge variety of weather conditions.

During the EUREC4A field campaign (Stevens et al, 2020), for example, ARTHUS was deployed on board RV Maria S Merian, to study ocean-atmosphere interaction, (18 January to 18 February 2020). ARTHUS was combined with one Doppler lidar in vertically staring mode and a second one in a 6-beam scanning mode.

Between 15 July and 20 September 2021, ARTHUS was deployed at Lindenberg Observatory from the German Weather Service (DWD). The objective of the campaign was to demonstrate the potential of ARTHUS in the framework of a ground-based measurement campaign and the evaluation of the data obtained. The long-term stability, accuracy and high resolution of ARTHUS during the day and at night were demonstrated.

We also demonstrate that ARTHUS is capable of resolving (1) the strength of the inversion layer at the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) top and thus the ABL depth zi, (2) elevated lids in the free troposphere, and (3) turbulent fluctuations in WVMR and T. In combination with Doppler lidar, the latter permits measurements of sensible and latent heat flux profiles in the convective ABL and thus flux-gradient relationships (Behrendt et al. 2020). Consequently, ARTHUS can be applied for process studies such as land-atmosphere feedback, weather and climate monitoring, model verification, and data assimilation in weather forecast models.

At the conference, highlights of the measurements during the last three years will be shown.

Stevens et. al. 2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-18

Lange et al. 2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085774

Behrendt et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3221-2020

How to cite: Lange Vega, D., Behrendt, A., Senff, C. J., Späth, F., and Wulfmeyer, V.: The Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder: Highlights of Three Years of Ground-based and Ship-borne Boundary Layer Measurements with Turbulence Resolution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3275, 2022.

EGU22-4735 | Presentations | GI4.1

Comparison between Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height remote sensing-retrievals over a complex topography 

Andrea Burgos Cuevas, Adolfo Magaldi Hermosillo, David Adams, Michel Grutter de la Mora, Jorge L. Garcia Franco, and Angel Ruiz Angulo

The Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) height is a key parameter in air quality research as well as in order to parametrize numerical simulations and forecasts. The identification of thermally stable layers has been one of the most common approaches in order to estimate this height. However, radiosonde's coarse temporal resolution is not enough to investigate the diurnal cycle of the ABL. Remote sensing has overcome this problem with a high temporal resolution. The backscatter retrieved by ceilometers elucidates the height that aerosols are able to reach and therefore has been used to estimate ABL height. Additionally, the implementation of Doppler lidars, and the velocity profiling provided by them, makes possible to investigate ABL via turbulence variables. However, different retrievals of ABL height are not usually coincident with each other and this issue becomes more evident over topographically complex terrain, such as Mexico City. It has been previously shown that the aerosol layer and the convective boundary layer height are generally not coincident over mountainous terrains. In this presentation we show that, at daytime hours, the convective boundary layer height (retrieved with Doppler lidar data) is lower than the aerosol layer height (retrieved with ceilometer data) during one year over Mexico City. Diurnal and monthly variabilities are discussed and the remote sensing-retrieved heights are compared with thermally stable layers estimated from radiosonde data. We show that multiple thermally stable layers develop, the upper ones are similar to the ceilometer retrieved heights and the lower ones are approximately as high as the Doppler lidar ones. Finally, the influence of radiation and precipitation over the retrieved heights is discussed over the year. The present research illustrates how the comparison between ceilometer backscatter and Doppler lidar ABL height retrievals can contribute to investigate the complexity of the ABL height over the mountainous terrain of Mexico City.

 

How to cite: Burgos Cuevas, A., Magaldi Hermosillo, A., Adams, D., Grutter de la Mora, M., Garcia Franco, J. L., and Ruiz Angulo, A.: Comparison between Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height remote sensing-retrievals over a complex topography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4735, 2022.

EGU22-5644 | Presentations | GI4.1

Cloud Aerosol Lidar for Global Scale Observations of the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere System – CALIGOLA 

Paolo Di Girolamo, Alberto Cosentino, Francesco Longo, Noemi Franco, Davide Dionisi, Donato Summa, Simone Lolli, Enrico Suetta, Alessandro Perna, and Simona Zoffoli

The Italian space industry, and specifically Leonardo S.p.A., has gained unique skills at an international level in the development of space-qualified power laser sources with for lidar Earth observation applications (Aeolus, EarthCARE). Moreover, Leonardo S.p.A. and the Italian optical industry, has a consolidated technical-scientific knowledge and consolidated experience in the design and development of lidar receiver sub-systems (telescopes, optical devices and sensors) with  space applications. The Italian Space Agency (ASI) intends to benefit from long-term expertise to design and develop a lidar system for Earth observation applications. Two separate feasibility studies, one focusing of technical aspects and one focusing on scientific aspects, are presently underway to define mission goals and a possible instrument layout.
CALIGOLA has a primary focus on the atmosphere, but also a strong focus on the study of the Ocean-Earth-Atmosphere system and the mutual interactions within it. Exploiting the three Nd: YAG laser emissions at 354.7, 532 and 1064 nm and the elastic (Rayleigh-Mie) and Raman lidar echoes from atmospheric constituents, CALIGOLA is conceived to carry out three-wavelength particle backscatter and depolarization ratio and two-wavelength particle extinction profile measurements from aerosols and clouds to be used to retrieve their microphysical and dimensional properties. Furthermore, measurement of the elastic backscattered echoes from the sea surface and the underlying layers, and their degree of depolarization, CALIGOLA will be exploited to characterize sea optical properties (ocean color) and the suspended particulate matter, which are needed to study the seasonal and inter-annual phytoplankton dynamics and to improve the understanding of the role of phytoplankton in marine biogeochemistry, in the global carbon cycle and in the response of marine ecosystems to climate variability. A specific measurement channel will be dedicated to fluorescence measurements from atmospheric aerosols and marine chlorophyll, for the purpose of aerosol typing and for characterizing ocean primary production. Aerosol fluorescence measurements at 680 nm/460 nm are also planned for the purpose of aerosol typing. CALIGULA will also allow accurate measurements of the small-scale variability of the earth's surface elevation primarily associated with variations in the terrain, vegetation and forest canopy height.
The CALIGOLA project is explicitly included the on-going Three-Year Activity Plan (2021-2023) of the Italian Space Agency, with a scheduled tentative launch window of 2026-2028. The considered strategy to develop the above described space lidar mission in such a short time relies on the maximum exploitation of subsystems already developed at national level for space applications, with a high TRL (TRL>7), ultimately leading to a space mission with high impact and scientific timeliness. The Phase A study of the technological feasibility of the laser source is on-going, commissioned by ASI to Leonardo S.p.A., and scientific studies in support of the mission also on-going, with the University of Basilicata being the leading scientific institution. The Italian Space Agency is willing to pursue this mission in a coordinated way with one or more other European or extra-European Space Agencies, with a bilateral or multi-lateral contributed mission approach, and, in this regard, any interest from other Agencies is welcome and desired.

How to cite: Di Girolamo, P., Cosentino, A., Longo, F., Franco, N., Dionisi, D., Summa, D., Lolli, S., Suetta, E., Perna, A., and Zoffoli, S.: Cloud Aerosol Lidar for Global Scale Observations of the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere System – CALIGOLA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5644, 2022.

EGU22-7336 | Presentations | GI4.1

Sub-mesoscale evolution of spatial wind gust patterns measured with three Doppler lidars in a triangle configuration 

Julian Steinheuer, Frank Beyrich, Carola Detring, Stephanie Fiedler, Petra Friederichs, and Ulrich Löhnert

The evolution of wind gusts is difficult to observe as gusts are short-lived and small-scale phenomena. They occur with certain weather configurations (e.g. fronts, cold pools) and may already differ very locally. The question arises if individual gust observations can be taken as representative of their surroundings or if significant differences can already be apparent on the meso-gamma scale (2-20 km). Within the Field Experiment on Sub-Mesoscale Spatio-Temporal Variability in Lindenberg (FESSTVaL) different phenomena in the atmospheric boundary layer are studied with a variety of measurement instruments. This involved installing three StreamLine DWL systems from Halo Photonics at a distance of 6 km apart from each other. DWLs allow the retrieval of wind vector profiles and offer an alternative to classic meteorological tower observations, since they can be flexibly deployed at any electrified site. However, short-lived gusts are more difficult to capture than a persistent mean wind. A wind vector has to be obtained from different radial velocity measurements that are made sequentially, which limits the achievable temporal resolution. Therefore, we have developed a new retrieval method for deriving wind measurements that is suitable for different scan configurations and different time resolutions respectively different numbers of radial velocities. A fast continuous scanning mode (CSM), that completes a full observation cycle within 3.4 seconds and measures about eleven radial Doppler velocities is a suitable DWL configuration for deriving wind gusts, as shown by comparisons with measurements of a sonic anemometer at 90.3 m a.g.l. on the meteorological tower in Falkenberg. The fast CSM configuration was operated on the DWLs during the summer months 2021 at the three different sites. Their surrounding area is predominantly flat farmland, minimizing topographic impacts. This set-up allows us to observe the spatial-temporal evolution of gusts at the meso-gamma scale. Examples will be presented that illustrate the variability of wind gusts as observed during FESSTVaL.

How to cite: Steinheuer, J., Beyrich, F., Detring, C., Fiedler, S., Friederichs, P., and Löhnert, U.: Sub-mesoscale evolution of spatial wind gust patterns measured with three Doppler lidars in a triangle configuration, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7336, 2022.

EGU22-7792 | Presentations | GI4.1

ABL determination by Raman lidar with different approaches in the frame of HyMeX SOP1 

Donato Summa, Paolo Di Girolamo, Gemine Vivone, Noemi Franco, D'amico Giuseppe, and Benedetto De Rosa

The atmospheric planetary boundary layer (ABL) represents the lower region of the atmosphere directly in contact with the earth's surface and strongly influenced by this surface. In this layer physical quantities such as flow velocity, temperature and humidity exhibit rapid fluctuations associated with turbulent motion and vertical mixing.

Characterization of the planetary boundary layer is of primary importance in a variety of fields such as weather forecasting, climate change modeling and air quality forecasting and therefore it is very important to determine it correctly. The structure of ABL can be complex and highly variable.  In this work different techniques to estimate the ABL height are compared. A first technique makes use of the pure rotational Raman lidar signals, which are strongly dependent on temperature. A second technique makes use of the  water vapor roto-vibrational Raman lidar signals in the lower troposphere. Further techniques based on the Morphological Image Processing Approach (MIPA) are also considered. In the present research work, we consider the measurements from the University of Basilicata Raman lidar system BASIL collected in the period 16-21 October 2012 in the frame of HyMex SOP1 [1,2,3].

References:

[1] Di Girolamo, P., R. Marchese, D. N. Whiteman, B. B. Demoz, Rotational Raman Lidar measurements of atmospheric temperature in the UV. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L01106, ISSN: 0094-8276, doi: 10.1029/2003GL018342, 2004.

[2] Vivone, G., D'Amico G., Summa D., Lolli S., Amodeo A., Bortoli D., and Pappalardo G.. Atmospheric boundary layer height estimation from aerosol lidar: a new approach based on morphological image processing techniques Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4249–4265, 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4249-2021.

[3] Summa, D., P. Di Girolamo, D. Stelitano, and M. Cacciani, Characterization of the planetary boundary layer height and structure by Raman lidar: comparison of different approaches, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 3515–3525, 2013, www.atmos-meas-tech.net/6/3515/2013/doi:10.5194/amt-6-3515-2013

How to cite: Summa, D., Di Girolamo, P., Vivone, G., Franco, N., Giuseppe, D., and De Rosa, B.: ABL determination by Raman lidar with different approaches in the frame of HyMeX SOP1, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7792, 2022.

EGU22-7808 | Presentations | GI4.1

Remote-sensing of aerosol atmospheric rivers over the southwest Indian Ocean in September 2017: origins, evolution and impacts 

Alexandre Baron, Valentin Duflot, Patrick Chazette, Marco Gaetani, Cyrille Flamant, Juan Cuesta, Guillaume Payen, Philippe Keckhut, and Philippe Goloub

In the southern hemisphere, the dry season from June to October coincides with the occurrence of significant fires especially located along the tropical belt in Africa and South America. This fire activity is an important source of aerosols in the tropical troposphere and results in smoke plumes transported across long distances toward area generally aerosol-free. The atmospheric composition over the Indian Ocean is often influenced by biomass burning plumes shaped by the synoptic atmospheric circulation with high pressure over southern Africa and the movement of westerly waves that may embedded cut-off lows. The propagation over the Indian Ocean is then dependent on the position of the Mascarene High. The meandering shape of the plumes is then associated with an aerosol atmospheric river (AAR). Such a phenomenon has been sampled by spaceborne lidars and spectro-radiometers, and even observed above La Réunion (21.1°S, 55.3°E) during September 2017 by a ground-based lidar and a sun-photometer. The Li1200, an operational lidar in the frame of the Atmospheric Physics Reunion Observatory (OPAR), recorded the passage of an AAR during two nights. These measurements allow us to derive both the vertical structures of the plume and some vertically resolved aerosol optical properties. This information was used to constrain Lagrangian modelling tools to identify the pathways and origins of the biomass burning plume. These results have been corroborated by the spaceborne observations of CALIOP and CATS, and the passive sensor MODIS. Reanalysis of ECMWF with atmospheric composition outputs from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) supports the understanding of the synoptic conditions leading to the formation of this aerosol plume configuration. We will present our scientific approach and discuss the environmental impact of these AARs in the southwest Indian Ocean.

How to cite: Baron, A., Duflot, V., Chazette, P., Gaetani, M., Flamant, C., Cuesta, J., Payen, G., Keckhut, P., and Goloub, P.: Remote-sensing of aerosol atmospheric rivers over the southwest Indian Ocean in September 2017: origins, evolution and impacts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7808, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7808, 2022.

EGU22-8554 | Presentations | GI4.1

Multi-year analysis on cirrus cloud optical and geometrical properties at Goddard Space Flight Center in the frame of the NASA MPLNET lidar network 

Simone Lolli, Erica Dolinar, Jasper R. Lewis, James R. Campbell, and Ellsworth J. Welton

In this study, we present the results of 20 years of cirrus cloud optical and geometrical properties retrieved from lidar observations at NASA Goddard Flight Space Center, a permanent site of the Micropulse lidar network (MPLNET). In this research, moreover, we also focus on determining the consistency of lidar long-term measurements, i.e. assessing the Signal-To-Noise variation over the two decades and its relationship to detection sensitivity and/or the quality of the calibration procedure. Through this research, it is possible to assess how changes in optical and geometrical properties of the cirrus clouds over twenty years impacted the Earth-atmosphere radiative budget, both at the surface and at the top-of-the-atmosphere. This unique and unprecedented study is the first step in assessing how climate changes influence cirrus cloud formation and lifetime and their feedback to climate. The same analysis will be then carried out for all the MPLNET permanent observational sites deployed at global scale. 

How to cite: Lolli, S., Dolinar, E., Lewis, J. R., Campbell, J. R., and Welton, E. J.: Multi-year analysis on cirrus cloud optical and geometrical properties at Goddard Space Flight Center in the frame of the NASA MPLNET lidar network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8554, 2022.

Aviation affects the Earth’s radiation budget through a combination of multiply processes which warm the atmosphere. Linear contrails and contrail cirrus induced by water vapor and soot emissions from air traffic in the upper atmosphere are expected to contribute a large part of the climate impact of avation. Furthermore, contrails cause a significant increase in cirrus optical thickness as well as an indirect effect on the microphysical properties of naturally formed cirrus clouds. During the first lockdown in April 2020, air traffic over Europe was significantly reduced to about 80% compared to the year before. This unique situation provides a good opportunity to study the effect of air traffic on cirrus. Based on the analysis of the spaceborne lidar measurements with CALIPSO, we found a significant reduction in the particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR) of cirrus clouds measured in April 2020 compared to the previous years 2014-2019 under normal conditions, especially at colder temperatuers (T < -50oC). However, we note that civil aviation over Europe before the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., before March 2020) grew strongly in terms of CO2 emission and flight densities, e.g. on average by 233 MTon/year over Germany, over the past years (2010-2019, especially 2013-2019, source: EUROCONTROL). In order to study the aviation effects of cirrus properties in a longer period (with, of course, milder change in air traffic than the case due to the COVID lockdown), we further extend our analysis to all the observations from Mar. 2010 to Feb. 2020. We found a long-term trend of 0,0087/year (~2.4% per year) in PLDR for all the cirrus observations (day+night) and a trend of 0.0107/year for only the day-time observations at altitudes between 6 and 13 km. In addition, seasonal variations of PLDR are also drived showing higher PLDR-values in winter than in summer for all the measurements as well as for the measurements in different altitude bins. In the end, we compared the background meteorological conditions including the ambient temperature, relative humidity, and vertical updrafts determined with ECMWF and analyzed the correlation between PLDR and the corresponding CO2 emissions as a proxy of air traffic densities.

Key words: CALIPSO; Cirrus cloud; Lidar; Depolarization ratio; PLDR; COVID-19

How to cite: Li, Q. and Groß, S.: Aviation-induced changes in cirrus clouds over Europe during COVID-19 and in a ten-year period before COVID-19, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9144, 2022.

EGU22-9407 | Presentations | GI4.1

Observation of Simultaneous Etna Volcanic aerosol and Desert Dust aerosol over Naples: an experimental test for a new lidar inversion algorithms 

Alessia Sannino, Salvatore Amoruso, Riccardo Damiano, Simona Scollo, pasquale Sellitto, and Antonella Boselli

Studies on the spatio-temporal characterization of microphysical and optical properties of atmospheric aerosol are of particular interest for their impacts on life cycle. Unfortunately, large uncertainties govern these studies because of the wide variability of the components which characterize the aerosol, especially when several sources concur in the observations. This is exactly what happens over the Central Mediterranean where particles of different nature and typology, produced by local sources or long-range transport phenomena from natural and anthropogenic sources, coexist frequently in the aerosol layers. Among these contributions, a special mention deserves the volcanic activity, since Mediterranean area hosts numerous active volcanoes, like Mount Etna, in Italy, whose degassing and explosive activities have a strong impact on the atmospheric aerosol composition. In this work we present the results from the Etna paroxysmal event occurred  in February 21st - 26th, 2021 and observed in the Naples area in coexistence with Saharan dust transport. The event has been characterized by the ACTRIS (Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure) observation station of the University of Naples “Federico II” by combining lidar, sunphotometer and satellite data. Back-trajectories and volcanic plume dispersion simulations were also performed in order to better distinguish geometrical, optical and microphysical properties of the atmospheric aerosol. From our analysis, spatio-temporal information of the two main aerosol components in terms of their optical  and microphysical proprieties were clearly identified. In particular, starting from lidar data, the particle size distributions were retrieved at desired altitudes using a novel inversion approach based on a new Monte Carlo algorithm. Interestingly, when integrated over the range on the observation column, the experimental findings result in good agreement with the data provided by the sunphotometer.

How to cite: Sannino, A., Amoruso, S., Damiano, R., Scollo, S., Sellitto, P., and Boselli, A.: Observation of Simultaneous Etna Volcanic aerosol and Desert Dust aerosol over Naples: an experimental test for a new lidar inversion algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9407, 2022.

EGU22-11817 | Presentations | GI4.1

Performance assessment of the space-borne Raman Lidar ATLAS – Atmospheric Thermodynamic LidAr in Space 

Noemi Franco, Paolo Di Girolamo, Donato Summa, Benedetto De Rosa, Andreas Behrendt, and Volker Wulfmeyer

The Atmospheric Thermodynamic LidAr in Space (ATLAS) is a mission concept proposed to the European Space Agency in the frame of “Earth Explorer-11 Mission Ideas” Call by a team of researchers, with the aim to develop the first Raman Lidar in space capable to measure simultaneously atmospheric temperature and water vapour mixing ratio profiles with high temporal and spatial resolutions. Accurate measurements of these profiles are essential to understand water and energy cycles, as well as the prediction of extreme events, that nowadays still show huge deficiencies on all temporal and spatial scales (1). Such measurements would have a revolutionary impact on our understanding of the Earth system and would close the gap in our observational capabilities from the surface to the lower troposphere.

The specifications of the different lidar sub-system, as well as the expected capability to provide measurements with high temporal and spatial resolution in the low and middle troposphere, have already been established with an analytical simulation model (2,3). These simulations considered different atmospheric models and conditions to estimate the statistical uncertainty on water vapour and temperature measurements. New studies have been now performed to estimate the performances along several dawn-dusk orbits. An end-to-end simulator has been developed and used to estimate the statistical and systematic uncertainties. The input data, comprehensive of thermodynamic and optical parameters, have been extracted from the GEOS-5 Nature Run and have been chosen to perform simulations with different solar zenith angles and therefore different background contributions. The model includes information on cloud fraction and optical thickness, so it was also possible to consider the performances in cloudy conditions. The simulations show promising results, both in clear and cloudy conditions and with different background contributions. A comprehensive study of the assessed performances will be presented at the conference.

The simulated measurements obtained from the simulator will be also used as input observations in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The aim is to estimate the impact of global measurements from a space-borne Raman Lidar in terms of skill-scores, obtained by the comparison of the weather forecast output with and without the assimilation of the simulated lidar data.

1 - Wulfmeyer, Hardesty, Turner, Behrendt, Cadeddu, Di Girolamo, et al. A review of the remote sensing of lower tropospheric thermodynamic profiles and its indispensable role for the understanding and the simulation of water and energy cycles. Reviews of Geophysics. 2015; 53(3):819–95.

2 - Di Girolamo, Behrendt, Wulfmeyer. Space-borne profiling of atmospheric thermodynamic variables with Raman lidar: performance simulations. Opt Express,OE. 2 aprile 2018; 26(7):8125–61.

3 - Di Girolamo, Behrendt, Wulfmeyer. Spaceborne profiling of atmospheric temperature and particle extinction with pure rotational Raman lidar and of relative humidity in combination with differential absorption lidar: performance simulations. Appl Opt, AO. 10 aprile 2006; 45(11):2474–94.

How to cite: Franco, N., Di Girolamo, P., Summa, D., De Rosa, B., Behrendt, A., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Performance assessment of the space-borne Raman Lidar ATLAS – Atmospheric Thermodynamic LidAr in Space, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11817, 2022.

EGU22-12076 | Presentations | GI4.1

Demonstration of water vapor and Isotopes measurement from lidar using a multi-platform, multi-instrumental approach 

Jonas Hamperl, Patrick Chazette, Julien Totems, Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt, Jean-Michel Melkonian, Philippe Nicolas, Myriam Raybaut, Aurélien Clémençon, Nicolas Geyskens, Pascal Geneau, Cyrille Flamant, Daniele Zannoni, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Anne Monod, Amandine Durand, Sylvain Ravier, and Alfons Schwarzenboeck

The Lidar Emitter and Multispecies greenhouse gases Observation iNstrument (LEMON) objective is the development and test of a new Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) sensor concept for greenhouse gases and water vapor for spaceborne, airborne or ground-based measurements. The innovative instrument is based on a versatile transmitter. The concept of the measurement was recently preliminarily tested for water vapor in a co-dedicated field campaign from 13 to 24 September 2021 over the Aubenas airfield (France, 44° 32' N 4° 22' E). This campaign was also an opportunity to test different approaches for the measurement of the vertical water vapor profile using classical meteorological probes embarked on meteorological balloons and on an airplane, a vibrational Raman lidar WALI (Weather Atmospheric LIdar), a cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS) and of course a first version of the LEMON lidar named WaVIL (Water Vapor and Isotope Lidar). The field campaign involved an instrumented van with two lidars and three ULAs carrying various payloads: a backscatter Rayleigh-Mie lidar to identify atmospheric structures from the local to regional scales, a CRDS for water vapor isotope measurements and in situ samplers to characterize cloud-related forcing on atmospheric water vapor concentrations. The measurement strategy adopted made it possible to follow the evaporation of water vapor throughout the course of a thunderstorm and to sample an intrusion of dry air from high altitudes. It also provided initial answers as to the potential of the WaViL instrument for measuring the main isotope of water vapor and its secondary isotope HDO. The measurement campaign will be presented, as well as the first associated results.

How to cite: Hamperl, J., Chazette, P., Totems, J., Dherbecourt, J.-B., Melkonian, J.-M., Nicolas, P., Raybaut, M., Clémençon, A., Geyskens, N., Geneau, P., Flamant, C., Zannoni, D., Sodemann, H., Steen-Larsen, H. C., Monod, A., Durand, A., Ravier, S., and Schwarzenboeck, A.: Demonstration of water vapor and Isotopes measurement from lidar using a multi-platform, multi-instrumental approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12076, 2022.

EGU22-12079 | Presentations | GI4.1 | Highlight

How sensitive are Aeolus Lidar Surface Returns (LSR) to the types of surface? Insights for LSR-based retrieval of AOD over ocean by using Aeolus. 

Lev Labzovskii, Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff, David Donovan, Jos De Kloe, and Damien Josset

The Aeolus mission offers unique opportunities for lidar surface returns (LSR) applications considering its incidence angle (~37.5o) and the operated wavelength (~355 nm). Previous Aeolus-oriented studies have indicated that the contrast between LSR over dark and bright surfaces is expected to be particularly pronounced at 355 nm. We evaluated this surmise by comparing new LSR estimates from novel Aeolus prototype processor (using an optimal estimation approach) with various types of land for the Intensive Observation Period of Aeolus (September 2019) and an additional period during the same year. We discerned a very clear LSR gradient between the signal from water (mostly weak, but variable) and the signal from land (mostly strong), whereas the strongest LSR was found over white surfaces (ice or snow). Moreover, the sensitivity of LSR to the type of surface was also identified as the gradient between the brightest surfaces (snow/ice, sparse vegetation) and the dark surfaces (herbaceous forest, mangrove, wetland) was significant. Specifically, besides Antarctica and Greenland, the strongest returns over land were reported over the snow-covered areas of Tibet and Andes, followed by the arid areas of Northern America, Northern Africa and Middle East. Notably, the LSR from water was not always low as the average LSR estimate over water exhibited the strongest variability (~0.001 – 0.042 sr-1) and yielded most statistical outliers. The application of sea ice mask from MERRA-2 model revealed that most strong LSR cases over water were associated with the undetected ice. The masking of detected ice has resulted in the dramatic reduction of the average LSR over water. As a result, the related LSR variability over water was dwindled by the factor of ~10 down to ~0.001 – 0.004 sr-1 and >95% of outliers disappeared. Our findings about the sensitivity of Aeolus surface returns to the type of surface are beneficial because statistically robust LSR estimates over ocean lay the foundation for the Aeolus LSR-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieval over ocean. This retrieval can be established based on the fundamental link between LSR, near-surface wind speed and AOD over sea surface.

How to cite: Labzovskii, L., van Zadelhoff, G.-J., Donovan, D., De Kloe, J., and Josset, D.: How sensitive are Aeolus Lidar Surface Returns (LSR) to the types of surface? Insights for LSR-based retrieval of AOD over ocean by using Aeolus., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12079, 2022.

EGU22-12960 | Presentations | GI4.1

Extremely fresh biomass burning aerosol observed in Potenza by multiwavelength Raman Lidar MUSA and the CIMEL 318 sun-photometer. 

Benedetto De Rosa, Lucia Mona, Aldo Amodeo, Nikos Papagiannopolos, Donato Summa, Michalis Mytilinaios, and Igor Veselovskii

On 14 August 2021 a forest fire started at 16:00 U.T.C. were observed by the Lidar Raman MUSA and the CIMEL 318 sun-photometer of CNR IMAA of Potenza located at 1 km from the fire. Due to proximity to only 1 km this measurements represents an important case of study. Measurements carried out by the Lidar MUSA  reveal the presence of a smoke layer below 2.7 km  from 22:27 to 23:19 the. The optical parameters derived are backscattering at 355, 532 and 1064 nm, extinction at 355 and 532 nm, Lidar ratios at 355 and 532 nm wavelengths, Ångström exponents,  and particle and volume depolarization at 532 nm. Results indicate a low absorption  an high scattering of fire particles.

Lidar ratio are 40 sr at 355 and 38 at 532, particle depolarization is 0.025 and Ångström exponents are approx 1.5 for all wavelengths.

To derive microphysical properties are used The inversion of 3 β + 2 α. The values of surface concentration is 410 µm2 cm-3, the volume concentration is 21 µm3 cm-3and numeric density is  2300 cm-3. The size distribution is  bi-modal distribution with a peak at 0.13 µm. The effective radius is 0.15 µm. The single scattering albedo at 355, 532 and 1064 are 0.96, the real and the imaginary part of the refractive index are respectively 1.58 and 0.006.

Therefore, particles are small, spherical and weakly absorbing probably due to a minimum contribution of black carbon

The CIMEL 318 sun photometer measurements at 5:34 U.T.C confirm the results of MUSA.

How to cite: De Rosa, B., Mona, L., Amodeo, A., Papagiannopolos, N., Summa, D., Mytilinaios, M., and Veselovskii, I.: Extremely fresh biomass burning aerosol observed in Potenza by multiwavelength Raman Lidar MUSA and the CIMEL 318 sun-photometer., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12960, 2022.

EGU22-3601 | Presentations | GI5.5 | Highlight

Towards an automatic real-time seismic monitoring system for the city of Oslo 

Erik Myklebust, Andreas Köhler, and Anna Maria Dichiarante

Global estimates for future growth indicate that city inhabitation will increase by 13% due to a gradual shift in residence from rural to urban areas. The continuous increase in urban population has caused many cities to upgrade their infrastructures and embrace the vision of a “smart-city”. Data collection through sensors represents the base layer of every smart-city solution. Large datasets are processed, and relevant information is transferred to the police, local authorities, and the general public to facilitate decisions and to optimize the performance of cities in areas such as transport, health care, safety, natural resources and energy. The objective of the GEObyIT project is to provide a real-time risk reduction system in an urban environment by applying machine learning methodologies to automatically identify and categorise different types of geodata, i.e., seismic events and geological structures. The project focusses on the city of Oslo, Norway, addressing the common need of two departments of the municipality, i.e., the Emergency Department and the Water and Sewage Department. In the present work, we focus on passive seismic records acquired with the objective to quickly locate urban events as well as to continuous monitor changes in the near surface. For this purpose, a seismic network of Raspberry Shake 3D sensors connected to GSM modems, to facilitate real-time data transfer, was deployed in target areas within the city of Oslo in 2021. We present preliminary results of three approaches applied to the continuous data: (1) automatic detection of metro trains, (2) automatic identification of outlier events such as construction and mining blasts, and (3) noise interferometry to monitor the near sub-surface in an area with quick clay. We use a supervised method based on convolutional neural networks trained with visually identified seismic signals on three sensors distributed along a busy metro track (1). Application to continuous data allowed us the reliably detect trains as well as their direction, while not triggering other events. Further development of this approach will be useful to either sort out known repeating seismic signals or to monitor traffic in an urban environment. In approach (2) we aim to detect rare or unusual seismic events using an outlier detection method. A convolutional autoencoder was trained to create dense features from continuous signals for each sensor. These features are used in a one-class support vector machine to detect anomalies. We were able to identify a series of construction and mine blasts, a meteor signal as well as two earthquakes. Finally, we apply seismic noise interferometry to close-by sensor pairs to measure temporal variations in the shallow ground (3). We observe clear seismic velocity variations during periods of strong frost in winter 2021/2022. This opens up for the potential to detect also non-seasonal changes in the ground, for example related to instabilities in quick clay deposits located within the city of Oslo.  

How to cite: Myklebust, E., Köhler, A., and Dichiarante, A. M.: Towards an automatic real-time seismic monitoring system for the city of Oslo, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3601, 2022.

Urban forest provides several important ecosystem services to cite residents and city environment, by which most functions were related to trees’ canopy biomass. To understand the dynamics of canopy biomass affecting the ecosystem services, this study applied and compared two approaches in predicting canopy biomass of Koelreuteria elegans street trees in the city of Taipei in Taiwan. The first approach extracted vegetation indices (VI) from time series data of the 2018 Sentinel-2 satellite images, to represent signals of tree canopy variation, including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), image classification based on VI time series data was processed to extract pixels with high canopy covers, and examined the associated phenological activities. In contrast, the other approach applied a system dynamic model to capture changes of canopy phenological activities in different seasons by factors of canopy size, leaf duration, and phenology events, all controlled by an accumulated temperature function to characterize green up and defoliation mechanisms. The growth temperature and growth rate of new leaves were calibrated with the phenological records. Results found good correlations between satellite-extracted vegetation indices approach and a temperature-driven phenological modelling. Reconstructed by NDVI and EVI, both indices caught the start of spring growth of Koelreuteria elegans in March to a full-sized canopy in April, with the whole growing season extended to the end of September, and a beginning of main defoliation from October to the lowest canopy size in January and February next year. Built from the image classification results for pure canopy cover, the maximum value of NDVI and EVI was 0.443 and 0.486, while the minimum was 0.08 and 0.163, respectively. In comparison, results from the canopy phenological modelling showed similar trends that canopy biomass reached its lowest point in February, entered to a rapid growth phase in March and reached full canopy size in April. Although the canopy phenological model also predicted a main growing season lasted until October, during the defoliation period, the leaves of the Koelreuteria elegans never completely fell off, due to the actual monthly minimum average temperature in the city of Taipei was higher than 10oC as the threshold of the controlled temperature. Based on these results, we suggest that when ground tree survey and inventory data are available, both satellite-extracted vegetation indices and modelling approach can provide useful predictions for landscape planning and urban forestry management.

How to cite: Pan, W.-C. and Cheng, S.-T.: Predicting and comparing canopy biomass by satellite-extracted vegetation indices and a temperature-driven phenological modelling approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7094, 2022.

EGU22-8095 | Presentations | GI5.5

Mining impact in a coal exploitation under an urban area: detection by Sentinel-1 SAR data 

Jose Cuervas-Mons, María José Domínguez-Cuesta, Félix Mateos-Redondo, Oriol Monserrat, and Anna Barra

In this work, the A-DInSAR techniques are applied in Central Asturias (N Spain). In this area, the presence of the most important cities in the region is remarkable, as well as industry and port infrastructures and a dense road network. Moreover, this region is specially known for their historical coal exploitation, which was developed mainly on the Central Coal Basin for almost 2 centuries, and is being abandoned from the beginning of the 21st. The main aim of this study is detecting and analysing deformations associated to this underground coal mining activity. For this, the following methodology was realised: 1) Acquisition and processing of 113 SAR images, provided by Sentinel-1A and B in descending trajectory between January 2018 and February 2020, by means of PSIG software; 2) Obtaining of Line of Sight mean deformation velocity map (in mm year-1) and deformation time series (in mm); 3) Analysis of detected terrain displacements and definition of mining impact. The results show a Velocity Line of Sigh (VLOS) range between -18.4 and 37.4 mm year-1, and accumulated ground displacements of -69.1 and 75.6 mm. The analysis, interpretation and validation of these ground motion allow us to differentiate local sectors with recent deformation related to subsidence and uplift movements with maximum VLOS of -18.4 mm year-1 and 9.5 mm year-1. This study represents an important contribution to improve the knowledge about deformations produced by impact of coal mining activity in a mountain and urban region. In addition, this work corroborates the reliability and usefulness of the A-DInSAR techniques like powerful tools in the study and analysis of geological hazards at regional and local scales for the monitoring and control of underground mining infrastructures.

How to cite: Cuervas-Mons, J., Domínguez-Cuesta, M. J., Mateos-Redondo, F., Monserrat, O., and Barra, A.: Mining impact in a coal exploitation under an urban area: detection by Sentinel-1 SAR data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8095, 2022.

EGU22-8156 | Presentations | GI5.5

Investigating the carbon biogeochemical cycle at Mt Etna 

Maddalena Pennisi, Simone D'Incecco, Ilaria Baneschi, Matteo Lelli, Antonello Provenzale, and Brunella Raco

The continuous acquisition of CO2 soil flux data has been started on Mt Etna in November 2021, with the aim of assessing a first balance between CO2 from volcanic and biological origin. Our long-term goal is an interdisciplinary study of volcanic, biological, ecological, biogeochemical, climatic and biogeographical aspects, including the anthropogenic impact on the environment. All aspects are integrated in the study of the so-called Critical Zone, i.e. the layer between the deep rock and the top of the vegetation where the main biological, hydrological and geological processes of the ecosystem take place. The new research activity at Mt Etna is performed within the framework of the PON-GRINT project for infrastructure enhancement (EU, MIUR), and it adds up to activities going on at Grand Paradiso National Park (Italian Alps), and Ny Alesund (Svalbard, NO, High Arctic) in the framework of the IGG-CNR Critical Zone Observatories.

During the first phase of the project, two fixed stations were installed in two sites at Piano Bello (Valle del Bove, Milo), in an area where the endemic Genista aetnensis grows. An Eddy Covariance system for net CO2 ecosystem exchange measurement and a weather station will be installed in 2022. Carbon stable isotopes data will be acquired periodically using in-situ instrumentation (i.e. Delta Ray).  The installation sites are selected after CO2 soil flux surveys around the volcano using a portable accumulation chamber. The two stations installed at Piano Bello consist of an automatic accumulation chamber fixed to the ground, a mobile lid with a diffusion infrared sensor for measuring CO2, a data logger and a sensor for measuring soil moisture and temperature. The accumulation chambers are programmed to acquire data on ecosystem respiration every hour for all day. Data are transmitted to the IGG data collection center. The new IGG-CNR Mt Etna CZO will contribute investigating CO2 fluxes at the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interface in different geological and environmental contexts. We benefit from the collaboration with the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), the Ente Parco dell'Etna, and the Dipartimento Regionale dello Sviluppo Rurale e Territoriale di Catania.

How to cite: Pennisi, M., D'Incecco, S., Baneschi, I., Lelli, M., Provenzale, A., and Raco, B.: Investigating the carbon biogeochemical cycle at Mt Etna, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8156, 2022.

Wind turbine (WT) ground motion emissions have a significant influence on sensitive measuring equipment like seismic monitoring networks. WTs permanently excite ground motions at certain constant frequencies due to the eigen modes of the tower and blades as well as the motion of the blades. The emitted waves have frequencies mainly below 10 Hz which are relevant for the observation of, e.g., local tectonic or induced seismicity. Furthermore, frequencies proportional to the blade passing frequency can be observed in ground motion data above 10 Hz, closely linked to acoustic emissions of the turbines. WTs are often perceived negatively by residents living near wind farms, presumably due to low frequency acoustic emissions. Therefore, similarities in ground motion and acoustic data provide constraints on the occurrence of such negatively perceived emissions and possible counter-measures to support the acceptance of WTs.

We study ground motion signals in the vicinity of two wind farms on the Swabian Alb in Southern Germany consisting of three and sixteen WTs, respectively, which are of the same turbine type, accompanied by acoustic measurements and psychological surveys. A part of the measurements is conducted in municipalities near the respective wind farms where residents report that they are affected by emissions. Additional measurements are conducted in the forests surrounding the WTs, and within WT towers. The wind farms are located on the Alb peneplain at 700-800 m height, approximately 300 m elevated compared to the municipalities. Results indicate that WTs are perceived more negatively in the location where the wind farm is closer to the municipality (ca. 1 km) and where other environmental noise sources like traffic occur more frequently. At the location more distant to the WT (ca. 2 km), even though more WTs are installed, residents are affected less. To improve the prediction of ground motion emissions, instruments are set up in profiles to study the amplitude decay over distance, which is linked to the local geology.

This study is supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy based on a resolution of the German Bundestag (03EE2023D).

How to cite: Gassner, L. and Ritter, J.: Ground motion emissions due to wind turbines: Results from two wind farms on the Swabian Alb, SW Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8472, 2022.

EGU22-11008 | Presentations | GI5.5

Preliminary Analysis on Multi-Devices Monitoring of Potential Deep-Seated Landslide in Xinzhuang, Southern Taiwan 

Ji-Shang Wang, Tung-Yang Lai, Yu-Chao Hsu, Guei-Lin Fu, Cheng Hsiu Tsai, and Ting-Yin Huang

In-situ monitoring of slope is crucial for recognizing and recording the occurrence of landslide. Figuring out the correlation between monitoring data and hillslope displacement would help early warning for landslide-induced disasters. Xinzhuang potential deep-seated landslide area has been identified by Taiwan executive authority where is located in Kaohsiung City, southern Taiwan, it covers a 10.3 hectares’ area and 20 buildings with an average slope of 22.8 degrees. The lithology of the upper slope is sand-shale interbedded with highly sand contented, which differs from lower slope in shale with mud contented.

For conducting early warning and comprehending displacement of landslide in this study, the monitoring of ground displacement was carried out using the tiltmeter and the GNSS RTK (Real Time Kinematic), and the hydrology data (rainfall and ground water level) were recorded every 10 minutes by automatic gauges. Furthermore, we executed manual borehole inclinometer measurement to obtain the possible sliding position of subsurface.

This study has been conducted for two years, the results shows that (1) The local shallow creep (4-5 meters underground) in the central deep-seated landslide area was recorded by the tiltmeter, GNSS and borehole inclinometer measurement. (2) The groundwater level is the significant factor for displacements of creep in this site. (3) The velocity of the displacement would be accelerated when the groundwater level was higher than 2.1 meters. (4) The 6-hours displacement has a highly correlation with accumulative rainfall and ground water level. Moreover, the results have been applied to the landslide early-warning system of Taiwan authority.

How to cite: Wang, J.-S., Lai, T.-Y., Hsu, Y.-C., Fu, G.-L., Tsai, C. H., and Huang, T.-Y.: Preliminary Analysis on Multi-Devices Monitoring of Potential Deep-Seated Landslide in Xinzhuang, Southern Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11008, 2022.

Very often many new construction and operating embankment dams need to be evaluated in terms of the slope stability. The necessity of considering body forces, pore-water pressures, and a variety of soil types in the analysis vitiates the application of methods that are well founded in the mechanics of continua and employ representative constitutive equations.

This study comparing stability analysis using total stress after the end of construction with effective stress couple of years later after the first impounding. Studies have indicated the advantages to be obtained employing an effective stress failure criterion (Bishop, 1952, Henkel and Skempton, 1955 and Bishop, 1960) for analysis and design of embankment dams. Pore-water pressure are determined from piezometer readings during the construction until the dam was operated.

This paper presents the results of stability analysis of embankments dam with both parameters and conditions, resulting that pore water pressures influence slope stability of the embankment.

How to cite: Hartanto, T.: Slope stability analysis of embankment dam under total and effective pore pressure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11541, 2022.

EGU22-11730 | Presentations | GI5.5

Road surface friction measurement based on intelligent road sensor and machine learning approaches 

Mezgeen Rasol, Franziska Schmidt, and Silvia Ientile

Real prediction of friction coefficient on the road surface is essential in order to enhance the resilience of traffic management procedures for the safety of road users. Critical weather conditions could have a significant impact on the road surface, and decrease the reliable friction coefficient in extreme conditions. Weather parameters are involved in the process of traffic management are water film thickness, ice percentage, pavement temperature, ambient temperature, and freezing point. Smart road monitoring of the road surface friction changes over time means the real-time prediction of the friction coefficient changes in the future based on the intelligent weather road-based sensor is crucial to avoid uncontrolled conditions during extreme weather conditions. For this reason, the use of intelligent data analysis such as machine learning approaches is key in order to provide a holistic robust decision-making tool to support road operators or owners for further consideration of the traffic management procedures. In this study, a machine learning approach is applied to train 18 months of data collected from the real case study in Spain, and results show a good agreement between real friction coefficient and predicted friction coefficient. The trained model has been validated with various cross-validation approaches, and the high accuracy of the model is observed.

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 769129 (PANOPTIS project).

How to cite: Rasol, M., Schmidt, F., and Ientile, S.: Road surface friction measurement based on intelligent road sensor and machine learning approaches, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11730, 2022.

EGU22-12263 | Presentations | GI5.5

System identification of a high-rise building: a comparison between a single station measuring translations and rotations, and a traditional array approach. 

Yara Rossi, John Clinton, Eleni Chatzi, Cédric Schmelzbach, and Markus Rothacher

We demonstrate that the extended dynamic response of an engineered structure can be obtained from just a single measurement at one position if rotation is recorded in combination with translation. Such a single station approach could save significant time, effort and cost when compared with traditional structural characterization using arrays. In our contribution we will focus on the monitoring of a high-rise building by tracking its dynamic properties, e.g., natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping. We present the results of the system identification for the Prime Tower in Zurich – with a height of 126 m, this concrete frame structure is the third highest building in Switzerland. It has been continuously monitored by an accelerometer (EpiSensor) and a co-located rotational sensor (BlueSeis) located near the building center on the roof for the past year. The motion on the tower roof includes significant rotations as well as translation, which can be precisely captured by the monitoring station. More than 9 natural frequencies, including the first 3 fundamental modes, as well as the next two overtones, where translations are coupled with rotations, are observed between 0.3 – 10 Hz, a frequency band of key interest for earthquake excitation, making an investigation essential. Using temporary arrays of accelerometers located across the roof and along the length of the building to perform a traditional dynamic characterisation, we can compare the array solution with the new single location solution in terms of system identification for the Prime Tower.

How to cite: Rossi, Y., Clinton, J., Chatzi, E., Schmelzbach, C., and Rothacher, M.: System identification of a high-rise building: a comparison between a single station measuring translations and rotations, and a traditional array approach., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12263, 2022.

EGU22-12901 | Presentations | GI5.5

Creating a spatially explicit road-river infrastructure dataset to benefit people and nature 

Rochelle Bristol, Stephanie Januchowski-Hartley, Sayali Pawar, Xiao Yang, Kherlen Shinebayar, Michiel Jorissen, Sukhmani Mantel, Maria Pregnolato, and James White

Worldwide, roads cross most rivers big and small, but if nobody maps the locations, do they exist? In our experiences, the answer is no, and structures such as culverts and bridges at these road-river crossings have gone overlooked in research into the impacts that infrastructure can have on rivers and the species that depend on them. There remains a need for spatially explicit data for road-river crossings as well as identification of structure types to support research and monitoring that guides more proactive approaches to infrastructure management. Our initial focus was on mapping road-river structures in Wales, United Kingdom so to better understand how these could be impacting on nature, particularly migratory fishes. However, as we began developing the spatial dataset, we became aware of broader applications, including relevance to hazard management and movement of people and goods so to support livelihoods and well-being. In this talk, I will discuss our initial approach to tackling this problem in Wales, and how we learned from that experience and refined the approach for mapping in England, including our use of openly available remotely sensed imagery from Google and Ordnance Survey so to ensure the data can be reused and modified by others for their needs and uses. I will present a spatially explicit dataset of road-river structures in Wales, including information about surrounding environmental attributes and discuss how these can help us to better understand infrastructure vulnerability and patterns at catchment and landscape scales. I will discuss the potential for diverse applications of this road-river structure dataset, particularly in relation to supporting real-time monitoring and providing the baseline data needed for any futuer machine learning or computation modelling advances for monitoring road-river structures.

How to cite: Bristol, R., Januchowski-Hartley, S., Pawar, S., Yang, X., Shinebayar, K., Jorissen, M., Mantel, S., Pregnolato, M., and White, J.: Creating a spatially explicit road-river infrastructure dataset to benefit people and nature, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12901, 2022.

EGU22-1294 | Presentations | CR2.8

What determines the location of Antarctic blue ice areas? A deep learning approach 

Veronica Tollenaar, Harry Zekollari, Devis Tuia, Benjamin Kellenberger, Marc Rußwurm, Stef Lhermitte, and Frank Pattyn

The vast majority of the Antarctic ice sheet is covered with snow that compacts under its own weight and transforms into ice below the surface. However, in some areas, this typically blue-colored ice is directly exposed at the surface. These so-called "blue ice areas" represent islands of negative surface mass balance through sublimation and/or melt. Moreover, blue ice areas expose old ice that is easily accessible in large quantities at the surface, and some areas contain ice that extends beyond the time scales of classic deep-drilling ice cores.

Observation and modeling efforts suggest that the location of blue ice areas is related to a specific combination of topographic and meteorological factors. In the literature, these factors are described as (i) enhanced katabatic winds that erode snow, due to an increase of the surface slope or a tunneling effect of topography, (ii) the increased albedo of blue ice (with respect to snow), which enhances ablative processes, and (iii) the presence of nunataks (mountains protruding the ice) that act as barriers to the ice flow upstream, and prevent deposition of blowing snow on the lee side of the mountain. However, it remains largely unknown which role the physical processes play in creating and/or maintaining  blue ice at the surface of the ice sheet.

Here, we study how a combination of environmental and topographic factors lead to the observation of blue ice. We also quantify the relevance of the single processes and build an interpretable model aiming at not only predicting blue ice presence, but also explaining why it is there. To do so, data is fed into a convolutional neural network, a machine learning algorithm which uses the spatial context of the data to generate a prediction on the presence of blue ice areas. More specifically, we use a U-Net architecture that through convolutions and linked up-convolutions allows to obtain a semantic segmentation (i.e., a pixel-level map) of the input data. Ground reference data is obtained from existing products of blue ice area outlines that are based on multispectral observations. These products contain considerable uncertainties, as (i) the horizontal change from snow to ice is gradual and a single threshold in this transition is not applicable uniformly over the continent, and (ii) the blue ice area extent is known to vary seasonally. Therefore, we train our deep learning model with a loss function with increasing weight towards the center of blue ice areas.

Our first results indicate that the neural network predicts the location of blue ice relatively well, and that surface elevation data plays an important role in determining the location of blue ice. In our ongoing work, we analyze both the predictions and the neural network itself to quantify which factors posses predictive capacity to explain the location of blue ice. Eventually this information may allow us to answer the simple yet important question of why blue ice areas are located where they are, with potentially important implications for their role as paleoclimate archives and for their evolution under changing climatic conditions.

How to cite: Tollenaar, V., Zekollari, H., Tuia, D., Kellenberger, B., Rußwurm, M., Lhermitte, S., and Pattyn, F.: What determines the location of Antarctic blue ice areas? A deep learning approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1294, 2022.

EGU22-2726 | Presentations | CR2.8 | Highlight

Dissecting Glaciers - Can an Automated Bio-Medical Image Segmentation Tool also Segment Glaciers? 

Nora Gourmelon, Thorsten Seehaus, Matthias Braun, Andreas Maier, and Vincent Christlein

The temporal variability of glacier calving front positions provides essential information about the state of marine-terminating glaciers. These positions can be extracted from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images throughout the year. To automate this extraction, we apply deep learning techniques that segment the SAR images into different classes: glacier; ocean including ice-melange and sea-ice covered ocean; rock outcrop; and regions with no information like areas outside the SAR swath, layover regions and SAR shadow. The calving front position can be derived from these regions during post-processing.   
A downside of deep learning is that hyper-parameters need to be tuned manually. For this tuning, expert knowledge and experience in deep learning are required. Furthermore, the fine-tuning process takes up much time, and the researcher needs to have programming skills.
    
In the biomedical imaging domain, a deep learning framework [1] has become increasingly popular for image segmentation. The nnU-Net can be used out-of-the-box. It automatically adapts the U-Net, the state-of-the-art architecture for image segmentation, to different datasets and segmentation tasks. Hence, no more manual tuning is required. The framework outperforms specialized deep learning pipelines in a multitude of public biomedical segmentation competitions.   
We apply the nnU-Net to the task of glacier segmentation, investigating whether the framework is also beneficial in the domain of remote sensing. Therefore, we train and test the nnU-Net on CaFFe (https://github.com/Nora-Go/CaFFe), a benchmark dataset for automatic calving front detection on SAR images. CaFFe comprises geocoded, orthorectified imagery acquired by the satellite missions RADARSAT-1, ERS-1/2, ALOS PALSAR, TerraSAR-X, TanDEM-X, Envisat, and Sentinel-1, covering the period 1995 - 2020. The ground range resolution varies between 7 and 20 m2. The nnU-Net learns from the multi-class "zones" labels provided with the dataset. We adopt the post-processing scheme from Gourmelon et al. [2] to extract the front from the segmented landscape regions. The test set includes images from the Mapple Glacier located on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Columbia Glacier in Alaska. The nnU-Net's calving front predictions for the Mapple Glacier lie close to the ground truth with just 125 m mean distance error. As the Columbia Glacier shows several calving front sections, its segmentation is more difficult than that of the laterally constrained Mapple Glacier. This complexity of the calving fronts is also reflected in the results: Predictions for the Columbia Glacier show a mean distance error of 635 m. Concludingly, the results demonstrate that the nnU-Net holds considerable potential for the remote sensing domain, especially for glacier segmentation.
    
[1] Isensee, F., Jaeger, P.F., Kohl, S.A.A. et al. nnU-Net: a self-configuring method for deep learning-based biomedical image segmentation. Nat Methods 18, 203–211 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-020-01008-z 

[2] Gourmelon, N., Seehaus, T., Braun, M., Maier, A., Christlein, V.: Calving Fronts and Where to Find Them: A Benchmark Dataset and Methodology for Automatic Glacier Calving Front Extraction from SAR Imagery, In Prep.

How to cite: Gourmelon, N., Seehaus, T., Braun, M., Maier, A., and Christlein, V.: Dissecting Glaciers - Can an Automated Bio-Medical Image Segmentation Tool also Segment Glaciers?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2726, 2022.

EGU22-2904 | Presentations | CR2.8

Automated mapping of Eastern Himalayan glacial lakes using deep learning and multisource remote sensing data 

Saurabh Kaushik, Tejpal Singh, Pawan Kumar Joshi, and Andreas J Dietz

The Himalayan glacierized region has experienced a substantial rise in number and area of glacial lakes in the past two decades. These glacial lakes directly influence glacier melt, velocity, geometry, and thus overall response of the glacier to climate change. The sudden release of water from these glacial lakes poses a severe threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. Thereby, regular monitoring and modelling of these lakes bear significance in order to understand regional climate change, and mitigating the anticipated impact of glacial lake outburst flood. Here, we proposed an automated scheme for Himalayan glacial lake extent mapping using multisource remote sensing data and a state-of-the-art deep learning technique. A combination of multisource remote sensing data [Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) coherence, thermal, visible, near-infrared, shortwave infrared, Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) DEM, surface slope and Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI)] is used as input to a fully connected feed-forward Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The CNN is trained on 660 images (300×300×10) collected from 11 sites spread across Himalaya. The CNN architecture is designed for choosing optimum size, number of hidden layers, convolutional layers, filters, and other hypermeters using hit and trial method. The model performance is evaluated over 3 different sites of Eastern Himalaya, representing heterogenous landscapes. The novelty of the presented automated scheme lies in its spatio-temporal transferability over the large geographical region (~8477, 10336 and 6013 km2). The future work involves Intra-annual lake extent mapping across High-Mountain Asian region in an automated fashion.

Keywords: Glacial Lake, convolutional neural network, semantic segmentation, remote sensing, Himalaya, SAR and climate change

How to cite: Kaushik, S., Singh, T., Joshi, P. K., and Dietz, A. J.: Automated mapping of Eastern Himalayan glacial lakes using deep learning and multisource remote sensing data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2904, 2022.

EGU22-3446 | Presentations | CR2.8

The AI-CORE Project - Artificial Intelligence for Cold Regions 

Andreas Dietz and Celia Baumhoer and the AI-CORE Team

Artificial Intelligence for Cold Regions (AI-CORE) is a collaborative approach for applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods in the field of remote sensing of the cryosphere. Several research institutes (German Aerospace Center, Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Technical University Dresden) bundled their expertise to jointly develop AI-based solutions for pressing geoscientific questions in cryosphere research. The project addresses four geoscientific use cases such as the change pattern identification of outlet glaciers in Greenland, the object identification in permafrost areas, the detection of calving fronts in Antarctica and the firn-line detection on glaciers. Within this presentation, the four AI-based final approaches for each addressed use case will be presented and exemplary results will be shown. Further on, the implementation of all developed AI-methods in three different computer centers was realized and the lessons learned from implementing several ready-to-use AI-tools in different processing infrastructures will be discussed. Finally, a best-practice example for sharing AI-implementations between different institutes is provided along with opportunities and challenges faced during the present project duration.

How to cite: Dietz, A. and Baumhoer, C. and the AI-CORE Team: The AI-CORE Project - Artificial Intelligence for Cold Regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3446, 2022.

EGU22-3701 | Presentations | CR2.8 | Highlight

Snow accumulation over the world's glaciers (1981-2021) inferred from climate reanalyses and machine learning 

Matteo Guidicelli, Marco Gabella, Matthias Huss, and Nadine Salzmann

The scarcity and limited accuracy of snow and precipitation observation and estimation in high-mountain regions reduce our understanding of climatic-cryospheric processes. Thus, we compared the snow water equivalent (SWE) from winter mass balance observations of 95 glaciers distributed over the Alps, Canada, Central Asia and Scandinavia, with the cumulative gridded precipitation data from the ERA-5 and the MERRA-2 reanalysis products. We propose a machine learning model to downscale the gridded precipitation from the reanalyses to the altitude of the glaciers. The machine learning model is a gradient boosting regressor (GBR), which combines several meteorological variables from the reanalyses (air temperature and relative humidity are also downscaled to the altitude of the glaciers) and topographical parameters. Among the most important variables selected by the GBR model, are the downscaled relative humidity and the downscaled air temperature. These GBR-derived estimates are evaluated against the winter mass balance observations by means of a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation (site-independent GBR) and a leave-one-season-out cross-validation (season-independent GBR). The estimates downscaled by the GBR show lower biases and higher correlations with the winter mass balance observations than downscaled estimates derived with a lapse-rate-based approach. Finally, the GBR estimates are used to derive SWE trends between 1981 and 2021 at high-altitudes. The trends obtained from the GBRs are more enhanced than those obtained from the gridded precipitation of the reanalyses. When the data is regrouped regionwide, significant trends are only observed for the Alps (positive) and for Scandinavia (negative), while significant positive or negative trends are observed in all the regions when looking locally at single glaciers and specific elevations. Positive (negative) SWE trends are typically observed at higher (lower) elevations, where the impact of rising temperatures is less (more) dominating.

How to cite: Guidicelli, M., Gabella, M., Huss, M., and Salzmann, N.: Snow accumulation over the world's glaciers (1981-2021) inferred from climate reanalyses and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3701, 2022.

EGU22-5317 | Presentations | CR2.8

Point Mass Balance Regression using Deep Neural Networks: A Transfer Learning Approach 

Ritu Anilkumar, Rishikesh Bharti, and Dibyajyoti Chutia

The last few years have seen an increasing number of studies modeling glacier evolution using deep learning. Most of these techniques have focussed on artificial neural networks (ANN) that are capable of providing a regressed value of mass balance using topographic and meteorological input features. The large number of parameters in an ANN demands a large dataset for training the parameter values. This is relatively difficult to achieve for regions with a sparse in-situ data measurement set up such as the Himalayas. For example, of the 14326 point mass balance measurements obtained from the Fluctuations of Glaciers database for the period of 1950-2020 for glaciers between 60S and 60N, a mere 362 points over four glaciers exist for the Himalayan region. These are insufficient to train complex neural network architectures over the region. We attempt to overcome this data hurdle by using transfer learning. Here, the parameters are first trained over the 9584 points in the Alps following which the weights were used for retraining for the Himalayan data points. Fourteen meteorological from the ERA5Land monthly averaged reanalysis data were used as input features for the study. A 70-30 split of the training and testing set was maintained to ensure the authenticity of the accuracy estimates via independent testing. Estimates are assessed on a glacier scale in the temporal domain to assess the feasibility of using deep learning to fill temporal gaps in data. Our method is also compared with other machine learning algorithms such as random forest-based regression and support vector-based regression and we observe that the complexity of the dataset is better represented by the neural network architecture. With an overall normalized root mean squared loss consistently less than 0.09, our results suggest the capability of deep learning to fill the temporal data gaps over the glaciers and potentially reduce the spatial gap on a regional scale.

How to cite: Anilkumar, R., Bharti, R., and Chutia, D.: Point Mass Balance Regression using Deep Neural Networks: A Transfer Learning Approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5317, 2022.

EGU22-5612 | Presentations | CR2.8

Retrieving freeze/thaw-cycles using Machine Learning approach in Nunavik (Québec, Canada) 

Yueli Chen, Lingxiao Wang, Monique Bernier, and Ralf Ludwig

In the terrestrial cryosphere, freeze/thaw (FT) state transition plays an important and measurable role for climatic, hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical processes in permafrost landscapes.

Satellite active and passive microwave remote sensing has shown its principal capacity to provide effective monitoring of landscape FT dynamics. Many algorithms have been developed and evaluated over time in this scope. With the advancement of data science and artificial intelligence methods, the potential of better understanding the cryosphere is emerging.

This work is dedicated to exploring an effective approach to retrieve FT state based on microwave remote sensing data using machine learning methods, which is expected to fill in some hidden blind spots in the deterministic algorithms. Time series of remote sensing data will be created as training data. In the initial stage, the work aims to test the feasibility and establish the basic neural network based on fewer training factors. In the advanced stage, we will improve the model in terms of structure, such as adding more complex dense layers and testing optimizers, and in terms of discipline, such as introducing more influencing factors for training. Related parameters, for example, land cover types, will be included in the analysis to improve the method and understanding of FT-related processes.

How to cite: Chen, Y., Wang, L., Bernier, M., and Ludwig, R.: Retrieving freeze/thaw-cycles using Machine Learning approach in Nunavik (Québec, Canada), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5612, 2022.

EGU22-5910 | Presentations | CR2.8

Learning and screening of neural networks architectures for sub-grid-scale parametrizations of sea-ice dynamics from idealised twin experiments 

Tobias Finn, Charlotte Durand, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Yumeng Chen, Alberto Carrassi, and Veronique Dansereau

In this talk, we propose to use neural networks in a hybrid modelling setup to learn sub-grid-scale dynamics of sea-ice that cannot be resolved by geophysical models. The multifractal and stochastic nature of the sea-ice dynamics create significant obstacles to represent such dynamics with neural networks. Here, we will introduce and screen specific neural network architectures that might be suited for this kind of task. To prove our concept, we perform idealised twin experiments in a simplified Maxwell-Elasto-Brittle sea-ice model which includes only sea-ice dynamics within a channel-like setup. In our experiments, we use high-resolution runs as proxy for the reality, and we train neural networks to correct errors of low-resolution forecast runs.

Since we perform the two kind of runs on different grids, we need to define a projection operator from high- to low-resolution. In practice, we compare the low-resolution forecasted state at a given time to the projected state of the high resolution run at the same time. Using a catalogue of these forecasted and projected states, we will learn and screen different neural network architectures with supervised training in an offline learning setting. Together with this simplified training, the screening helps us to select appropriate architectures for the representation of multifractality and stochasticity within the sea-ice dynamics. As a next step, these screened architectures have to be scaled to larger and more complex sea-ice models like neXtSIM.

How to cite: Finn, T., Durand, C., Farchi, A., Bocquet, M., Chen, Y., Carrassi, A., and Dansereau, V.: Learning and screening of neural networks architectures for sub-grid-scale parametrizations of sea-ice dynamics from idealised twin experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5910, 2022.

EGU22-6948 | Presentations | CR2.8

Mapping Glacier Basal Sliding with Beamforming and Artificial Intelligence 

Josefine Umlauft, Philippe Roux, Albanne Lecointre, Florent Gimbert, Ugo Nanni, Andrea Walpersdorf, Bertrand Rouet-LeDuc, Claudia Hulbert, Daniel Trugman, and Paul Johnson

The cryosphere is a highly active and dynamic environment that rapidly responds to changing climatic conditions. In particular, the physical processes behind glacial dynamics are poorly understood because they remain challenging to observe. Glacial dynamics are strongly intermittent in time and heterogeneous in space. Thus, monitoring with high spatio-temporal resolution is essential.

In course of the RESOLVE (‘High-resolution imaging in subsurface geophysics : development of a multi-instrument platform for interdisciplinary research’) project, continuous seismic observations were obtained using a dense seismic network (100 nodes, Ø 700 m) installed on Glacier d’Argentière (French Alpes) during May in 2018. This unique data set offers the chance to study targeted processes and dynamics within the cryosphere on a local scale in detail.

 

To identify seismic signatures of ice beds in the presence of melt-induced microseismic noise, we applied the supervised ML technique gradient tree boosting. The approach has been proven suitable to directly observe the physical state of a tectonic fault. Transferred to glacial settings, seismic surface records could therefore reveal frictional properties of the ice bed, offering completely new means to study the subglacial environment and basal sliding, which is difficult to access with conventional approaches.

We built our ML model as follows: Statistical properties of the continuous seismic records (variance, kurtosis and quantile ranges), meteorological data and a seismic source catalogue obtained using beamforming (matched field processing) serve as features which we fit to measures of the GPS displacement rate of Glacier d’Argentière (labels). Our preliminary results suggest that seismic source activity at the bottom of the glacier strongly correlates with surface displacement rates and hence, is directly linked to basal motion. By ranking the importance of our input features, we have learned that other than for reasonably long monitoring time series along tectonic faults, statistical properties of seismic observations only do not suffice in glacial environments to estimate surface displacement. Additional beamforming features however, are a rich archive that enhance the ML model performance considerably and allow to directly observe ice dynamics.

How to cite: Umlauft, J., Roux, P., Lecointre, A., Gimbert, F., Nanni, U., Walpersdorf, A., Rouet-LeDuc, B., Hulbert, C., Trugman, D., and Johnson, P.: Mapping Glacier Basal Sliding with Beamforming and Artificial Intelligence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6948, 2022.

EGU22-8945 | Presentations | CR2.8

Ice Lead Network Analysis 

Julia Kaltenborn, Venkatesh Ramesh, and Thomas Wright

Ice lead analysis is an essential task for evaluating climate change processes in the Arctic. Ice leads are narrow cracks in the sea-ice, which build a complex network. While detecting and modeling ice leads has been performed in numerous ways based on airborne images, the dynamics of ice leads over time remain hidden and largely unexplored. These dynamics could be analyzed by interpreting the ice leads as more than just airborne images, but as what they really are: a dynamic network. The lead’s start, end, and intersection points can be considered nodes, and the leads themselves as edges of a network. As the nodes and edges change over time, the ice lead network is constantly evolving. This new network perspective on ice leads could be of great interest for the cryospheric science community since it opens the door to new methods. For example, adapting common link prediction methods might make data-driven ice lead forecasting and tracking feasible.
To reveal the hidden dynamics of ice leads, we performed a spatio-temporal and network analysis of ice lead networks. The networks used and presented here are based on daily ice lead observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) between 2002 and 2020 by Hoffman et al. [1].
The spatio-temporal analysis of the ice leads exhibits seasonal, annual, and overall trends in the ice lead dynamics. We found that the number of ice leads is decreasing, and the number of width and length outliers is increasing overall. The network analysis of the ice lead graphs reveals unique network characteristics that diverge from those present in common real-world networks. Most notably, current network science methods (1) exploit the information that is embedded into the connections of the network, e.g., in connection clusters, while (2) nodes remain relatively fixed over time. Ice lead networks, however, (1) embed their relevant information spatially, e.g., in spatial clusters, and (2) shift and change drastically. These differences require improvements and modifications on common graph classification and link prediction methods such as Preferential Attachment and EvolveGCN on the domain of ice lead dynamic networks.
This work is a call for extending existing network analysis toolkits to include a new class of real-world dynamic networks. Utilizing network science techniques will hopefully further our understanding of ice leads and thus of Arctic processes that are key to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Prof. Gunnar Spreen, who provided us insights into ice lead detection and possible challenges connected to the project idea. Furthermore, we would like to thank Shenyang Huang and Asst. Prof. David Rolnick for their valuable feedback and support. J.K. was supported in part by the DeepMind scholarship, the Mitacs Globalink Graduate Fellowship, and the German Academic Scholarship Foundation.

References

[1] Jay P Hoffman, Steven A Ackerman, Yinghui Liu, and Jeffrey R Key. 2019. The detection and characterization of Arctic sea ice leads with satellite imagers. Remote Sensing 11, 5 (2019), 521.

How to cite: Kaltenborn, J., Ramesh, V., and Wright, T.: Ice Lead Network Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8945, 2022.

EGU22-9753 | Presentations | CR2.8

Using LSTM on surface data to reconstruct 3D Temperature & Salinity profiles in the Arctic Ocean 

Mathias Jensen, Casper Bang-Hansen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Carsten Bjerre Ludwigsen, and Mads Ehrhorn

In recent years, the importance of dynamics in the Arctic Ocean have proven itself with respect to climate monitoring and modelling. Data used for creating models often include temperature & salinity profiles. Such profiles in the Arctic region are sparse and acquiring new data is expensive and time-consuming. Thus, efficient methods of interpolation are necessary to expand regional data. In this project, 3D temperature & salinity profiles are reconstructed using 2D surface measurements from ships, floats and satellites. The technique is based on a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The goal is to be able to reconstruct the profiles using remotely sensed data.

How to cite: Jensen, M., Bang-Hansen, C., Andersen, O. B., Ludwigsen, C. B., and Ehrhorn, M.: Using LSTM on surface data to reconstruct 3D Temperature & Salinity profiles in the Arctic Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9753, 2022.

EGU22-10386 | Presentations | CR2.8

Arctic sea ice dynamics forecasting through interpretable machine learning 

Matteo Sangiorgio, Elena Bianco, Doroteaciro Iovino, Stefano Materia, and Andrea Castelletti

Machine Learning (ML) has become an increasingly popular tool to model the evolution of sea ice in the Arctic region. ML tools produce highly accurate and computationally efficient forecasts on specific tasks. Yet, they generally lack physical interpretability and do not support the understanding of system dynamics and interdependencies among target variables and driving factors.

Here, we present a 2-step framework to model Arctic sea ice dynamics with the aim of balancing high performance and accuracy typical of ML and result interpretability. We first use time series clustering to obtain homogeneous subregions of sea ice spatiotemporal variability. Then, we run an advanced feature selection algorithm, called Wrapper for Quasi Equally Informative Subset Selection (W-QEISS), to process the sea ice time series barycentric of each cluster. W-QEISS identifies neural predictors (i.e., extreme learning machines) of the future evolution of the sea ice based on past values and returns the most relevant set of input variables to describe such evolution.

Monthly output from the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS)  from 1978 to 2020 is used for the entire Arctic region. Sea ice thickness represents the target of our analysis, while sea ice concentration, snow depth, sea surface temperature and salinity are considered as candidate drivers.

Results show that autoregressive terms have a key role in the short term (with lag time 1 and 2 months) as well as the long term (i.e., in the previous year); salinity along the Siberian coast is frequently selected as a key driver, especially with a one-year lag; the effect of sea surface temperature is stronger in the clusters with thinner ice; snow depth is relevant only in the short term.

The proposed framework is an efficient support tool to better understand the physical process driving the evolution of sea ice in the Arctic region.

How to cite: Sangiorgio, M., Bianco, E., Iovino, D., Materia, S., and Castelletti, A.: Arctic sea ice dynamics forecasting through interpretable machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10386, 2022.

EGU22-10637 | Presentations | CR2.8

A deep learning approach for mapping and monitoring glacial lakes from space 

Manu Tom, Holger Frey, and Daniel Odermatt

Climate change intensifies glacier melt which effectively leads to the formation of numerous new glacial lakes in the overdeepenings of former glacier beds. Additionally, the area of many existing glacial lakes is increasing. More than one thousand glacial lakes have emerged in Switzerland since the Little Ice Age, and hundreds of lakes are expected to form in the 21st century. Rapid deglaciation and formation of new lakes severely affect downstream ecosystem services, hydropower production and high-alpine hazard situations. Day by day, glacier lake inventories for high-alpine terrains are increasingly becoming available to the research community. However, a high-frequency mapping and monitoring of these lakes are necessary to assess hazards and to estimate Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks, especially for lakes with high seasonal variations. One way to achieve this goal is to leverage the possibilities of satellite-based remote sensing, using optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite sensors and deep learning.

There are several challenges to be tackled. Mapping glacial lakes using satellite sensors is difficult, due to the very small area of a great majority of these lakes. The inability of the optical sensors (e.g. Sentinel-2) to sense through clouds creates another bottleneck. Further challenges include cast and cloud shadows, and increased levels of lake and atmospheric turbidity. Radar sensors (e.g. Sentinel-1 SAR) are unaffected by cloud obstruction. However, handling cast shadows and natural backscattering variations from water surfaces are hurdles in SAR-based monitoring. Due to these sensor-specific limitations, optical sensors provide generally less ambiguous but temporally irregular information, while SAR data provides lower classification accuracy but without cloud gaps.

We propose a deep learning-based SAR-optical satellite data fusion pipeline that merges the complementary information from both sensors. We put forward to use Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 L2A imagery as input to a deep network with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) backbone. The proposed pipeline performs a fusion of information from the two input branches that feed heterogeneous satellite data. A shared block learns embeddings (feature representation) invariant to the input satellite type, which are then fused to guide the identification of glacial lakes. Our ultimate aim is to produce geolocated maps of the target regions where the proposed bottom-up, data-driven methodology will classify each pixel either as lake or background.

This work is part of two major projects: ESA AlpGlacier project that targets mapping and monitoring of the glacial lakes in the Swiss (and European) Alps, and the UNESCO (Adaptation Fund) GLOFCA project that aims to reduce the vulnerabilities of populations in the Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan) from GLOFs in a changing climate. As part of the GLOFCA project, we are developing a python-based analytical toolbox for the local authorities, which incorporates the proposed deep learning-based pipeline for mapping and monitoring the glacial lakes in the target regions in Central Asia.

How to cite: Tom, M., Frey, H., and Odermatt, D.: A deep learning approach for mapping and monitoring glacial lakes from space, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10637, 2022.

EGU22-12785 | Presentations | CR2.8

Machine learning tools for pattern recognition in polar climate science 

William Gregory

Over the past four decades, the inexorable growth in technology and subsequently the availability of Earth-observation and model data has been unprecedented. Hidden within these data are the fingerprints of the physical processes that govern climate variability over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, and it is the task of the climate scientist to separate these patterns from noise. Given the wealth of data now at our disposal, machine learning methods are becoming the tools of choice in climate science for a variety of applications ranging from data assimilation, to sea ice feature detection from space. This talk summarises recent developments in the application of machine learning methods to the study of polar climate, with particular focus on Arctic sea ice. Supervised learning techniques including Gaussian process regression, and unsupervised learning techniques including cluster analysis and complex networks, are applied to various problems facing the polar climate community at present, where each application can be considered an individual component of the larger sea ice prediction problem. These applications include: seasonal sea ice forecasting, improving spatio-temporal data coverage in the presence of sparse satellite observations, and illuminating the spatio-temporal connectivity between climatological processes.

How to cite: Gregory, W.: Machine learning tools for pattern recognition in polar climate science, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12785, 2022.

EGU22-12882 | Presentations | CR2.8

Inverse modelling techniques for snow and ice thickness retrievals from satellite altimetry  

Joel Perez Ferrer, Michel Tsamados, Matthew Fox, Tudor Suciu, Harry Heorton, and Carmen Nab

We have recently applied an objective mapping type approach to merge observations from multiple altimeters, both for enhancing the temporal/spatial resolution of freeboard samples and for analyzing crossovers between satellites (Gregory et al, 2021). This mapping provides optimal interpolation of proximal observations to a location in space and time based on the covariance of the observations and a priori understanding of their spatiotemporal correlation length scales. This offers a best linear estimator and error field for the observation (radar freeboard or snow depth), which can be used to better constrain pan-Arctic uncertainties. 

 

In addition we will explore here a newly developed inverse modelling framework  to synchronously retrieve the snow and ice thickness from bias corrected or calibrated radar freeboards from multiple satellite retrievals. The radar equations expressed in section can be rearranged to formulate the joint forward model at gridded level relating measured radar freeboards from multiple satellites (and airborne data) to the underlying snow and ice thickness. In doing so we have also introduced a penetration factor correction term for OIB radar freeboard measurements. To solve this inverse model problem for  and  we use the following two methodologies inspired from Earth Sciences applications (i.e. seismology):  

 

Space ‘uncorrelated’ inverse modelling. The method is called `space uncorrelated' inverse modelling as the algorithm is applied locally, for small distinct regions in the Arctic Ocean, multiple times, until the entire Arctic ocean is covered. To sample the parameter space  we use the publicly available Neighbourhoud Algorithm (NA) developed originally for seismic tomography of Earth’s interior and recently by us to a sea ice dynamic inversion problem (Hoerton et al, 2019).   

 

Space ‘correlated inverse modelling. For the second method of inverse modelling, we used what we call a `space correlated' approach. Here the main algorithm is applied over the entire Arctic region, aiming to retrieve the desired parameters at once. In contrast with the previous approach, in this method we take into account positional correlations for the physical parameters when we are solving the inverse problem, the output being a map of the Arctic composed of a dynamically generated a tiling in terms of Voronoi cells. In that way, regions with less accurate observations will be more coarsely resolved while highly sampled regions will be provided on a finer grid with a smaller uncertainty. The main algorithm used here to calculate the posterior solution is called `reverse jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain' (hereafter referred to as rj-MCMC) and its concept was designed by Peter Green in 1999 (Green, 1995). Bodin and Sambridge (2009) adapted this algorithm for seismic inversion, which is the basis of the algorithm used in this study.  

 

How to cite: Perez Ferrer, J., Tsamados, M., Fox, M., Suciu, T., Heorton, H., and Nab, C.: Inverse modelling techniques for snow and ice thickness retrievals from satellite altimetry , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12882, 2022.

CL5.2 – Archives and observations

EGU22-640 | Presentations | SSP1.2

DeepStor-1 exploration well at KIT Campus North (Upper Rhine Graben, Germany) 

Schill Eva, Florian Bauer, Ulrich Steiner, Bernd Frieg, and Thomas Kohl

DeepStor-1 is the exploration well to the Helmholtz research infrastructure "DeepStor". DeepStor focuses on the investigation of high-temperature heat storage at the rim of the fromer oil-field „Leopoldshafen“. It is located about 10 km north of the city of Karlsruhe (Germany). The DeepStor-1 well is planned to reach the Pechelbronn group at 1‘460 m, i.e. it includes nearly the entire Oligocene sediments at the site. Seismic investigation reveal a structurally undisturbed section that below 200 m depth covers the Landau, Bruchsal, Niederrödern and Froidefontaine Formations. Cores will be taken from the entire section below 820 m. In addition to coring, the logging program is planned to include besides technical logging, a caliper-, self-potential-, temperature-, dual latero-, natural gamma spectrometry-, neutron-gamma porosity-, sonic-, elemental capture spectroscopy-, as well as image-logs in the sections 215-820 m as well as 820-1460 m. Drilling of DeepStor-1 is planned between 2022 and 2023.

How to cite: Eva, S., Bauer, F., Steiner, U., Frieg, B., and Kohl, T.: DeepStor-1 exploration well at KIT Campus North (Upper Rhine Graben, Germany), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-640, 2022.

EGU22-1019 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Dating the serpentinite mud production of Fantangisña seamount using calcareous nannofossils and planktonic foraminifera biostratigraphy (IODP Expedition 366). 

Arianna Valentina Del Gaudio, Werner E. Piller, Gerald Auer, and Walter Kurz

The Izu-Bonin Mariana (IBM) convergent margin is located in the NW Pacific Ocean (12° N to 35° N) and represents, to the best of our knowledge, the only setting where recent episodes of serpentinite mud volcanism took place. The IBM arc-system started to form around 50-52 Ma when the Pacific Plate began to subside below the Philippine Plate and the eastern Eurasian Margin. On the Mariana forearc system, which constitutes the southward region of the IBM, a high number of large serpentinite mud volcanoes formed between the trench and the Mariana volcanic arc. Their origin is linked to episodic extrusion of serpentinite mud and fluids along with materials from the upper mantle, the Philippine plate, and the subducting Pacific plate to the sea floor, through a system of forearc faults. Among them, Fantangisña seamount was drilled during IODP Expedition 366. Cored material comprises serpentinite mud and ultramafic clasts that are underlain by nannofossil-rich forearc deposits and topped by pelagic sediments.

Integrated calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminifera biostratigraphy was performed on Sites U1497 and U1498, which are at the top of the serpentinite seamount and on its most stable southern flank, respectively. A total of nine bioevents were recorded in this study, permitting the establishment of a valid age-depth model for Site U1498A which allows for the definition of the latest phase of activity of Fantangisña serpentinite mud volcano. In particular, the emplacement of the mud production was detected between 6.10 (Late Miocene, Messinian) to 4.20 (Early Pliocene, Zanclean). This time interval is defined by nannofossil bioevents LO Reticulofenestra rotaria and FO of Discoaster asymmetricus. Furthermore, our analyses reveal that the latest stage of the serpentinite mud activity occurred 4 Ma later than the age proposed by a previous study (10.77 Ma) and is coeval with the initiation of the rifting in the Mariana Trough recorded at 7-6 Ma.

The age depth model also shows a rapid shift in sedimentation rates (11.80 to 94.71 m/Myr) during the Middle Pleistocene, which corresponds to a change in deposition of distinct serpentinite mud units, likely associated with the regional tectonic activity (different stages of seamount accretion and subduction and/or changes in the forearc extension related to the slab rollback).

How to cite: Del Gaudio, A. V., Piller, W. E., Auer, G., and Kurz, W.: Dating the serpentinite mud production of Fantangisña seamount using calcareous nannofossils and planktonic foraminifera biostratigraphy (IODP Expedition 366)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1019, 2022.

EGU22-1277 | Presentations | SSP1.2 | Highlight

The Cenozoic Arctic Climate and Sea Ice History - Scientific objectives, challenges and implementation update of IODP Expedition 377 (ArcOP) 

Ruediger Stein, Kristen St.John, and Jeremy Everest

The Arctic is both a contributor to climate change and a region that is most affected by global warming. Despite this global importance, the Arctic Ocean is the last major region on Earth where the long-term climate history remains poorly known. Major advances in understanding were achieved in 2004 with the successful completion of IODP Expedition 302: Arctic Coring Expedition – ACEX – implemented by ECORD, marking the start of a new era in Arctic climate exploration. Although the ACEX results were unprecedented, key questions related to the Cenozoic Arctic climate history remain unanswered, largely due to a major mid-Cenozoic hiatus (or condensed interval) and partly to the poor recovery of the ACEX record. Building on ACEX and its cutting-edge science, IODP Expedition 377: Arctic Ocean Paleoceanography (ArcOP) has been scheduled for mid-August to mid-October 2022. The overall goal of ArcOP is the recovery of a complete stratigraphic sedimentary record on the southern Lomonosov Ridge to meet the highest priority paleoceanographic objective: the continuous long-term Cenozoic Arctic Ocean climate history with its transition from the early Cenozoic Greenhouse world to the late Cenozoic Icehouse world. Furthermore, sedimentation rates two to four times higher than those of ACEX will permit higher-resolution studies of Arctic climate change in the Neogene and Pleistocene. Key objectives are related to the reconstruction of the history of circum-Arctic ice-sheets, sea-ice cover, Siberian river discharge, and deep-water circulation and ventilation and its significance within the global climate system. Obtaining a geologic record of a 50-60 million year time span will provide opportunities to examine trends, pat­terns, rates, causes, and consequences of climate change that are important and relevant to our future. This goal can be achieved through (i) careful site selection, (ii) the use of appropriate drilling technology and ice management, and (iii) applying multi-proxy approaches to paleoceanographic, paleoclimatic, and age-model reconstructions.

In August 2022, a fleet of three ships, the drilling vessel “Dina Polaris” and the powerful icebreakers “Oden” and “Viktor Chernomyrdin”, will set sail for a location on Lomonosov Ridge in international waters far from shore (81°N, 140°E; 800-900 m of water depth). There, the expedition will complete one primary deep drill site (LR-11B) to 900 meters below seafloor (mbsf) which is twice that of the ACEX drill depth – certainly a challenging approach. Based on detailed site survey data, about 230 m of Plio‐Pleistocene, 460 m of Miocene, and >200 m of Oligocene‐Eocene sedimentary sequences might be recovered at this site. In addition, a short drill site (LR-10B) to 50 mbsf will be supplemented to recover an undisturbed uppermost (Quaternary) sedimentary section to ensure complete recovery for construction of a composite section spanning the full age range through the Cenozoic.

In this talk, background information, scientific objectives and an update of the status of planning and implementation of the ArcOP Expedition will be presented. For further details we refer to the ArcOP Scientific Prospectus (https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.sp.377.2021).

How to cite: Stein, R., St.John, K., and Everest, J.: The Cenozoic Arctic Climate and Sea Ice History - Scientific objectives, challenges and implementation update of IODP Expedition 377 (ArcOP), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1277, 2022.

EGU22-1509 | Presentations | SSP1.2 | Highlight

A Campaign of Scientific Drilling for Monsoon Exploration in the Asian Marginal Seas 

Peter Clift, Christian Betzler, Steven Clemens, Beth Christensen, Gregor Eberli, Christian France-Lanord, Stephen Gallagher, Ann Holbourn, Wolfgang Kuhnt, Richard Murray, Yair Rosenthal, Ryuji Tada, and Shiming Wan

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) conducted a series of expeditions between 2014 and 2016 that were designed to address the development of monsoon climate systems in Asia and Australia. Significant progress was made in recovering Neogene sections spanning the region from the Arabian Sea to the Japan Sea and south to western Australia. High recovery by advanced piston core (APC) technology has provided a host of semi-continuous sections that have been used to examine monsoonal evolution. Use of half APC was successful in sampling sand-rich sediment in Indian Ocean submarine fans. The records show that humidity and seasonality developed diachronously across the region, although most regions show drying since the middle Miocene and especially since ~4 Ma, likely linked to global cooling. The transition from C3 to C4 vegetation often accompanied the drying, but may be more linked to global cooling. Western Australia, and possibly southern China diverge from the general trend in becoming wetter during the late Miocene, with the Australian monsoon being more affected by the Indonesian Throughflow, while the Asian Monsoon is tied more to the rising Himalaya in South Asia and to the Tibetan Plateau in East Asia. The monsoon shows sensitivity to orbital forcing, with many regions having a weaker summer monsoon during times of Northern Hemispheric Glaciation. Stronger monsoons are associated with faster continental erosion, but not weathering intensity, which either shows no trend or decreasing strength since the middle Miocene in Asia. Marine productivity proxies and terrestrial environmental proxies are often seen to diverge. Future work on the almost unknown Paleogene is highlighted, as well as the potential of carbonate platforms as archives of paleoceanographic conditions.

How to cite: Clift, P., Betzler, C., Clemens, S., Christensen, B., Eberli, G., France-Lanord, C., Gallagher, S., Holbourn, A., Kuhnt, W., Murray, R., Rosenthal, Y., Tada, R., and Wan, S.: A Campaign of Scientific Drilling for Monsoon Exploration in the Asian Marginal Seas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1509, 2022.

EGU22-1679 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Direct evidence of high pore pressure at the toe of the Nankai accretionary prism 

Joshua Pwavodi and Mai-Linh Doan

The Nankai Trough is a locus of slow slip, low frequency earthquakes and Mw>8 classical earthquakes. It is assumed that high pore pressure contributes substantially to earthquake dynamics. Hence, a full understanding of the hydraulic regime of the Nankai accretionary prism is needed to understand this diversity of behaviors. We contribute to this understanding by innovatively integrating the drilling and logging data of the NanTroSEIZE project. We focus on the toe of the accretionary prism by studying data from Hole C0024A drilled and intersected the décollement at 813 mbsf about 3km away from the trench.

Down Hole Annular Pressure was monitored during drilling. We perform a careful quantitative reanalysis of its variation and show localized fluid exchange between the formation and the borehole (excess of 0.05m3/s), especially in the damage zones at the footwall of the décollement.

Pore pressure was estimated using Eaton’s method on both drilling and sonic velocity data. The formation fluids are getting significantly over-pressurized only a few hundred meters from the toe of the accretionary prism near the décollement with excess pore-pressure (P*≈0.04–4.79MPa) and lithostatic load (λ≈88-0.96 & λ*≈0.1-0.62 ) contributing to maximum 62% of the overburden stress.

The hydraulic profile suggests that the plate boundary acts as a barrier inhibiting upward fluid convection, as well as a lateral channel along the damage zone, favouring high pore pressure at the footwall. Such high pressure at the toe of the subsection zone makes high pressure probable further down in the locus of tremors and slow slip events.

How to cite: Pwavodi, J. and Doan, M.-L.: Direct evidence of high pore pressure at the toe of the Nankai accretionary prism, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1679, 2022.

EGU22-1729 | Presentations | SSP1.2

IODP Expedition 386 “Japan Trench Paleoseismology”: Mission Specific Platform Giant Piston Coring to track past megathrust earthquakes and their consequences in a deep-sea subduction trench. 

Michael Strasser, Ken Ikehara, Jeremy Everest, and Lena Maeda and the IODP Expedition 386 Science Party

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 386, Japan Trench Paleoseismology (offshore period: 13 April to 1 June 2021; Onshore Science Party: 14 February to 14 March 2022) was designed to test the concept of submarine paleoseismology in the Japan Trench, the area where the last, and globally only one out of four instrumentally-recorded, giant (i.e. magnitude 9 class) earthquake occurred back in 2011. “Submarine paleoseismology” is a promising approach to investigate deposits from the deep sea, where earthquakes leave traces preserved in the stratigraphic succession, to reconstruct the long-term history of earthquakes and to deliver observational data that help to reduce uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment for long return periods. This expedition marks the first time, giant piston coring (GPC) was used in IODP, and also the first time, partner IODP implementing organizations cooperated in jointly implementing a mission-specific platform expedition.

We successfully collected 29 GPCs at 15 sites (1 to 3 holes each; total core recovery 831 meters), recovering 20 to 40-meter-long, continuous, upper Pleistocene to Holocene stratigraphic successions of 11 individual trench-fill basins along an axis-parallel transect from 36°N – 40.4°N, at water depth between 7445-8023 m below sea level. These offshore expedition achievements reveal the first high-temporal and high spatial resolution investigation and sampling of a hadal oceanic trench, that form the deepest and least explored environments on our planet.

The cores are currently being examined by multimethod applications to characterize and date hadal trench sediments and extreme event deposits, for which the detailed sedimentological, physical and (bio-)geochemical features, stratigraphic expressions and spatiotemporal distribution will be analyzed for proxy evidence of giant earthquakes and (bio-)geochemical cycling in deep sea sediments. Initial preliminary results presented in this EGU presentation reveal event-stratigraphic successions comprising several 10s of potentially giant-earthquake related event beds, revealing a fascinating record that will unravel the earthquake history of the different along-strike segments that is 10–100 times longer than currently available information. Post-Expedition research projects further analyzing these initial IODP data sets will (i) enable statistically robust assessment of the recurrence patterns of giant earthquakes, there while advancing our understanding of earthquake-induced geohazards along subduction zones and (ii) provide new constraints on sediment and carbon flux of event-triggered sediment mobilization to a deep-sea trench and its influence on the hadal environment.

 

How to cite: Strasser, M., Ikehara, K., Everest, J., and Maeda, L. and the IODP Expedition 386 Science Party: IODP Expedition 386 “Japan Trench Paleoseismology”: Mission Specific Platform Giant Piston Coring to track past megathrust earthquakes and their consequences in a deep-sea subduction trench., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1729, 2022.

EGU22-1917 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Operations and Initial Results from IODP Expedition 396: Mid-Norwegian Continental Margin Magmatism and Paleoclimate 

Sverre Planke, Christian Berndt, Ritske Huismans, Stefan Buenz, Carlos A. Alvarez Zarikian, and Expedition Scientists

The NE Atlantic conjugate volcanic rifted margins are characterized by extensive breakup-related magmatism recorded by basalt flows, volcanogenic sediments, magmatic underplates, and intrusive complexes in sedimentary basins and the crust. Onset of this voluminous magmatism is concomitant with the global hot-house climate in the Paleogene, and the injection of magma into organic-rich sedimentary basins is a proposed mechanism for triggering short-term global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma).

The aims of IODP Exp. 396 (August-September 2021) were to drill three transects on the mid-Norwegian continental margin to sample 1) hydrothermal vent complexes formed by eruption of hot fluids and sediments above sill intrusions (Modgunn Transect), 2) Paleogene sediments, with particular focus on the Paleocene-Eocene transition (Mimir Transect), and 3) basalt and sub-basalt sequences across the volcanic rifted margin and the initial oceanic crust (Basement Transect). A total of 21 boreholes were drilled, successfully coring all nine primary and one alternate sites. A comprehensive suite of wireline logs was collected in eight boreholes. Most of the sites were located on industry-standard 3D seismic reflection data, whereas additional high-resolution 2D and 3D P-Cable site survey data were acquired across six sites which were highly useful during the Mimir and Modgunn transect drilling. In total, more than 2000 m of core were recovered during 48 days of operations, including more than 350 m of basalt, 15 m of granite, and 900 m of late Paleocene to early Eocene sediments. Drilling was done using a combination of RCB, XCB, and APC drill bits, commonly with half-advances (c. 5 m) to optimize core recovery. Particularly high recovery (almost 100%) was obtained by half-length APC coring of Eocene sediments in two holes on the outer Vøring Margin, whereas basaltic basement recovery was above 60% in seven holes.

Expedition 396 probed the key elements of a typical volcanic rifted margin and the associated sedimentary archive. Of particular importance is the Modgunn Transect, where we drilled five holes through the upper part of a hydrothermal vent complex with a very expanded Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) interval dominated by biogenic ooze and volcanic ash deposits. The expedition also recovered an unprecedented suite of basalt cores across a volcanic rifted margin, including both subaerial and deep marine sheet flows with inter-lava sediments and spectacular shallow marine pillow basalts and hyaloclastites, as well as high-resolution interstitial water samples to assess sediment diagenesis and fluid migration in the region. Lastly, we recovered the first cores of sub-basalt granitic igneous rocks and upper Paleocene sediments along the mid-Norwegian continental margin. Collectively, this unique sample archive offers unprecedented insight on tectonomagmatic processes in the NE Atlantic, and links to rapid climate evolution across the Cenozoic.

How to cite: Planke, S., Berndt, C., Huismans, R., Buenz, S., Alvarez Zarikian, C. A., and Scientists, E.: Operations and Initial Results from IODP Expedition 396: Mid-Norwegian Continental Margin Magmatism and Paleoclimate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1917, 2022.

EGU22-2525 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Biological sulfate reduction in deep subseafloor sediment of Guaymas Basin 

Toshiki Nagakura, Florian Schubert, and Jens Kallmeyer and the IODP Exp. 385 Scientists

Sulfate reduction is the quantitatively most important process to degrade organic matter in anoxic marine sediment and has been studied intensively in a variety of settings. Guaymas Basin, a young marginal ocean basin, offers the unique opportunity to study sulfate reduction in an environment characterized by organic-rich sediment, high sedimentation rates, and high geothermal gradients (100-958°C km-1). We measured sulfate reduction rates (SRR) in samples of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 385 using incubation experiments with radiolabeled 35SO42- carried out at in-situ pressure and temperature. Site U1548C, outside of a circular hydrothermal mound above a hot sill intrusion (Ringvent), has the highest geothermal gradient (958°C km-1) of all eight sampling sites. In near-surface sediment from this site, we measured the highest SRR (387 nmol cm-3 d-1) of all samples from this expedition. At Site U1548C SRR were generally over an order of magnitude higher than at similar depths at other sites. Site U1546D also had a sill intrusion, but it had already reached thermal equilibrium and SRR were in the same range as nearby Site U1545C, which is minimally affected by sills. The wide temperature range found in the stratigraphic section at each drill site leads to major shifts in microbial community composition with very different temperature optima. At the transition between the mesophilic and thermophilic range around 40 to 60°C, sulfate-reducing activity appears to be decreased, particularly in more oligotrophic settings but shows a slight recovery at higher temperatures.

How to cite: Nagakura, T., Schubert, F., and Kallmeyer, J. and the IODP Exp. 385 Scientists: Biological sulfate reduction in deep subseafloor sediment of Guaymas Basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2525, 2022.

EGU22-2909 | Presentations | SSP1.2 | Highlight

Microbial survival through high metabolic rates in a deep and hot subseafloor environment 

Florian Schubert, Felix Beulig, Rishi Ram Adhikari, Clemens Glombitza, Verena Heuer, Kai-Uwe Hinrichs, Kira Homola, Fumio Inagaki, Bo Barker Jørgensen, Jens Kallmeyer, Sebastian Krause, Yuki Morono, Justine Sauvage, Arthur Spivack, and Tina Treude

A fourth of the global seabed sediment volume is buried at depths where temperatures exceed 80 °C, a previously proposed thermal barrier for life in the subsurface. Here, we demonstrate, utilizing an extensive suite of radiotracer experiments, the prevalence of active methanogenic and sulfate-reducing populations in deeply buried marine sediment from the Nankai Trough subduction zone, heated to extreme temperature (up to ~120 °C). Sediment cores were recovered during International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 370 to Nankai Trough, off the cost of Moroto, Japan. The steep geothermal gradient of ~100 °C km-1 allowed for the exploration of most of the known temperature range for life over just 1 km of drill core. Despite the high temperatures, microbial cells were detected almost throughout the entire sediment column, albeit at extremely low concentration of <500 cells per cm³ in sediment above ~50 °C. In millions of years old sediment a small microbial community subsisted with high potential cell-specific rates of energy metabolism, which approach the rates of active surface sediments and laboratory cultures. Even under the most conservative assumptions, potential biomass turnover times for the recovered sediment ranges from days to years and therefore many orders of magnitude faster than in colder deep sediment.

Our discovery is in stark contrast to the extremely low metabolic rates otherwise observed in the deep subseafloor. As cells appear to invest most of their energy to repair thermal cell damage in the hot sediment, they are forced to balance delicately between subsistence near the upper temperature limit for life and a rich supply of substrates and energy from thermally driven reactions of the sediment organic matter.

How to cite: Schubert, F., Beulig, F., Adhikari, R. R., Glombitza, C., Heuer, V., Hinrichs, K.-U., Homola, K., Inagaki, F., Jørgensen, B. B., Kallmeyer, J., Krause, S., Morono, Y., Sauvage, J., Spivack, A., and Treude, T.: Microbial survival through high metabolic rates in a deep and hot subseafloor environment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2909, 2022.

EGU22-3165 | Presentations | SSP1.2 | Highlight

Drilling Overdeepened Alpine Valleys (ICDP-DOVE): Age, extent and environmental impact of Alpine glaciations 

Flavio Anselmetti and Marius Buechi and the ICDP-DOVE Team

The sedimentary infill of glacially overdeepened valleys (i.e. eroded structures below the fluvial base level) are, together with glacial geomorphology, the best-preserved (yet underexplored) direct archives of extents and ages of past glaciations in and around mountain ranges. ICDP project DOVE (Drilling Overdeepened Alpine Valleys) Phase-1 investigates five drill cores from glacially overdeepened structures at several complementing locations along the northern front of the Alps and their foreland. Two of these drill sites, both in the former reaches of the Rhine Glacier, have been successfully drilled in 2021 with excellent core recovery of 95 %: i) The borehole in Basadingen in Northern Switzerland reached a depth of 253 m, and ii) The Tannwald site in Southern Germany consists of one cored borehole to 165 m and two nearby flush boreholes; all three sites will allow a series of crosshole geophysical experiments. Three previously drilled legacy cores from the Eastern Alps are included in the DOVE Phase-1: iii) a core from Schäftlarn, located in the Isar-Loisach glacier catchment, was drilled in 2017 down to a depth of 199 m; iv) the Neusillersdorf drill site, located in the southern German Salzach Foreland glacier area, recovered a sequence down to 136 m (incl. 116 m of Quaternary strata); and v) the drill site Bad Aussee in Austria is located in the area of the Traun Glacier at an inneralpine location. It recovered almost 900 m of Quaternary sediments.

All the sites will be investigated with regard to several aspects of environmental dynamics during the Quaternary, with focus on the glaciation, vegetation, and landscape history. For example, the geometry of overdeepened structures will be investigated using different geophysical approaches (e.g. seismic surveys) to better understand the process of overdeepening. Sedimentological analyses in combination with downhole logging, investigation of biological remains and state-of-the-art geochronological methods will allow to reconstruct the filling and erosion history of the troughs. We expect significant and novel data relating to the extent and timing of the past Alpine glaciations during the Middle-to-Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles. Besides these basic scientific goals, this proposal also addresses a number of applied objectives such as groundwater resources, geothermal energy production, and seismic hazard assessment.

A successful DOVE Phase-1 will lay the ground for an upcoming Phase-2 that will complete the panalpine approach. This follow-up phase will investigate paleoglacier lobes from the western and southern Alpine margins through drilling sites in France, Italy and Slovenia.

How to cite: Anselmetti, F. and Buechi, M. and the ICDP-DOVE Team: Drilling Overdeepened Alpine Valleys (ICDP-DOVE): Age, extent and environmental impact of Alpine glaciations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3165, 2022.

EGU22-3372 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Re–Os geochemistry of altered dacitic rock at Site U1527, IODP Expedition 376: Implications for the Re cycle in intraoceanic arcs 

Mizuki Ishida, Tatsuo Nozaki, Yutaro Takaya, Junichiro Ohta, Qing Chang, Jun-Ichi Kimura, Kentaro Nakamura, and Yasuhiro Kato

The Re–Os isotopic system is a powerful tool for both geochronology and tracing various geochemical processes. Because the Os isotopic ratio (187Os/188Os) distinctly differs between modern seawater (∼1.06) and hydrothermal fluid (∼0.13), the Re–Os isotopic system is potentially a sensitive tracer of subseafloor fluid flow and the release or uptake of hydrogenous/magmatic Re and Os. The effect of alteration on the Re–Os budget in oceanic crust has been examined for mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) and lower oceanic crustal gabbro. In contrast, applications of the Re–Os system in intraoceanic arc settings are limited mainly to fresh igneous rocks; the role of hydrothermal alteration has not yet been examined.

Here, we provide a depth profile of Re–Os geochemistry at Site U1527, located on the NW caldera rim of the Brothers volcano hydrothermal field in the Kermadec arc, which was drilled during International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 376 in 2018. Volcaniclastic rocks from Hole U1527C that had experienced various degrees of high- and low-temperature hydrothermal alteration were analyzed for bulk chemical composition as well as Re–Os concentrations and isotopes. The concentration of Re varied from 0.172 to 18.7 ppb, and that of Os ranges from 9.7 to 147.1 ppt. Hydrothermal alteration usually resulted in the Re uptake by rocks, but a part of Re was released into the ocean by later oxidative weathering. Compared with Re, Os mobility resulting from hydrothermal alteration was limited. Before alteration, our samples likely had homogenous 187Os/188Os of between 0.13 and 0.14, whereas alteration added hydrogenous Os to some drill core sections in two different ways. Elevated 187Os/188Os with Ba enrichment and abundant pyrite occurrence suggests Os precipitation induced by subseafloor mixing of seawater and high-temperature hydrothermal fluid. The highest Re and Os concentrations at Hole U1527C, found in the same interval, were associated with high concentrations of Bi, Sb, and Tl. In contrast, elevated 187Os/188Os without Ba and Os enrichment can be explained by adsorption of seawater-derived radiogenic Os onto Fe hydroxide during seawater ingress into volcaniclastic rocks with a high matrix volume.

Intense Re enrichment at Hole U1527 relative to the high-temperature alteration zone in altered MORB may be related to abundant pyrite precipitation and high Re content in primary arc magmas. We propose that degassed Re from shallow intraoceanic arc magmas may be sequestered by subseafloor high-temperature alteration. Part of the stored Re might also be released into the ocean by later oxidative seawater circulation and seafloor weathering, raising a question about the role of alteration zones in the Re cycle in subduction zones. This study is one of the first attempts to apply the Re–Os system to altered rocks in arc settings, and future research should provide more information about the fate of Re in intraoceanic arcs and the detailed role of hydrothermal alteration in the Re cycle on the Earth.

How to cite: Ishida, M., Nozaki, T., Takaya, Y., Ohta, J., Chang, Q., Kimura, J.-I., Nakamura, K., and Kato, Y.: Re–Os geochemistry of altered dacitic rock at Site U1527, IODP Expedition 376: Implications for the Re cycle in intraoceanic arcs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3372, 2022.

EGU22-3428 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Hipercorig Hallstatt History (H3) reveals a high-resolution Late Pleistocene to Holocene sediment record at Lake Hallstatt (Salzkammergut, Austria) 

Marcel Ortler, Achim Brauer, Stefano C. Fabbri, Kerstin Kowarik, Jochem Kueck, and Michael Strasser

The innovative, new drilling technique of the Hipercorig platform (Harms et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-29-2020) enables to recover undisturbed long cores of sediment archives, and hence allows us to study past environmental conditions and changes. Here we present initial results from the Hipercorig Hallstatt History (H3) lake drilling campaign 2021, which succeeded to recover two parallel cores (core A: 41m, core B: 51m) from 122 m water depth providing a high-resolution record, within the UNESCO World Heritage Cultural Landscape Hallstatt-Dachstein/Salzkammergut, Austria. The Hallstatt-Dachstein region has a history of over 7,000 years of human salt mining and is one of the oldest documented cultural landscapes worldwide.

We present physical- and litho-stratigraphy based on borehole logging (of hole B), non-destructive core logging data, visual core and lithofacies description, Core-Log-Seismic-Correlation and initial age modelling using 14C dating. The core logging covers (i) x-ray computed tomography, (ii) multi-sensor-core-logger data with Gamma-Ray attenuated bulk density, magnetic susceptibility and visible light photo spectroscopy. The upper ~15 m of the sediment profile can be unambiguously correlated with previous cores (Lauterbach et al., submitted) thus confirming that the sediments are truly representative for Lake Hallstatt. The entire stratigraphic succession comprises two major lithostratigraphic units: The Holocene unit (0-40 m below lake floor (mblf)) and the Late Pleistocene unit (> 40 m). The Holocene unit consists of variably laminated (sub-mm to 5 mm) dark gray clayey-silty carbonate mud interbedded with up to 5.5 m thick mass-movement deposits and thick turbidites. The Late Pleistocene sedimentary succession comprises very thin bedded (1-3 cm) medium gray silty clayey carbonate mud, with some laminated (<1 cm) intervals and multiple cm-thick light gray turbidites. Within the Late Holocene unit, there is a prominent yellowish gray clastic interval of ~4 m with faintly mm- to cm-scale laminated sediments. Another remarkable characteristic of the Holocene unit is the occurrence of at least four major mass-movement deposits containing pebbles (up to 3 cm in diameter) and six thick turbidite deposits >1 m with different sediment colors and compositions.

Detailed multi-proxy analyzes of the Lake Hallstatt cores will provide new insights into the early history of human settlement and salt mining in this Alpine region and their relation to environmental and climatic conditions and meteorological and geological extreme events.

How to cite: Ortler, M., Brauer, A., Fabbri, S. C., Kowarik, K., Kueck, J., and Strasser, M.: Hipercorig Hallstatt History (H3) reveals a high-resolution Late Pleistocene to Holocene sediment record at Lake Hallstatt (Salzkammergut, Austria), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3428, 2022.

EGU22-3534 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Reconstructing the moisture availability of Central Mexico over the past 500,000 years using borehole logging data 

Mehrdad Abadi, Christian Zeeden, Arne Ulfers, and Thomas Wonik

Assessing the moisture history of Central Mexico reveals the responses of tropical areas to variation in past climate. Central Mexico has several long-lived lakes, which are potentially important paleoclimate archives. Lake Chalco in Central Mexico contains a ~300 m lacustrine sequence, which were deposited over a period of ~500,000 years. We conducted Spectral Gamma Ray (SGR) measurements across the lacustrine deposits of Lake Chalco to reconstruct the moisture availability over the past. The SGR data reflect the presence of naturally occurring radioactive elements including potassium (40K) and the equilibrium decay series of uranium (U) and thorium (Th). Natural sources of gamma radiation in lacustrine deposits of Lake Chalco are from volcanic ash deposition and detrital input of eroded sediments containing radioactive elements. However, redox conditions in the lake water influence the mobility of soluble U through conversion to more stable reduced phases. To extract the primary non-volcanic signals, we detected and removed signals from embedded tephra layers in the lacustrine sediments of Lake Chalco. We developed a moisture proxy by calculating the probability of authigenic U distributed across the lake sediments. We expect that an increasing U content in proportion to the content of K and Th indicate redox conditions in lake bottom water as a result of rising lake level. To evaluate this moisture proxy, we examined differences in the percent of the diatom species that are indicative of a deeper lake from literature. Results suggest that Lake Chalco likely formed prior or within MIS13, and the lake level rose gradually over time until the interglacial period of MIS9. Moisture levels are higher during the interglacial than glacial periods and interglacial periods show higher moisture variability. While glacial periods have less moisture, two periods, MIS6 and MIS4, still have a higher likelihood of authigenic U and more moist conditions. In order to determine potential regulators of moisture, we compared models containing the drivers of Earth’s orbital cycles, carbon dioxide and sea surface temperature. Carbon dioxide, eccentricity, and precession are all key drivers of the moisture content of Lake Chalco over the past 500,000 years. High levels of atmospheric CO2 have a positive effect on the moisture in Mexico while eccentricity and precession consistently have negative effects on lake moisture. Obliquity and δ18O have weaker effects on moisture in Mexico, probably due to the equatorial high-altitude region far away from poles, oceans and ice sheets.

How to cite: Abadi, M., Zeeden, C., Ulfers, A., and Wonik, T.: Reconstructing the moisture availability of Central Mexico over the past 500,000 years using borehole logging data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3534, 2022.

EGU22-3538 | Presentations | SSP1.2 | Highlight

Deformation mechanisms along the Main Marmara Fault around the ICDP-site GONAF 

Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, Mauro Cacace, Oliver Heidbach, Marco Bohnhoff, Murat Nurlu, Naiara Fernandez Terrones, Judith Bott, and Ershad Gholamrezaie

The Main Marmara Fault (MMF) in NW Turkey south of Istanbul is a segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) that constitutes a right-lateral continental transform fault.  Several well-documented strong (M7+) earthquakes indicate that the MMF poses a great risk to the Istanbul metropolitan region. A 150 km long stretch of the MMF has not ruptured since 1766 and the recurrence time of 250 yrs for M7+ events derived from historical records indicate that the fault is overdue. We introduce a new project addressing how the rheological configuration of the lithosphere in concert with active fluid dynamics within the crust and mantle influence the present-day deformation along the MMF in the Marmara Sea region. We test the following hypotheses: (1) the seismic gap is related to the mechanical segmentation along the MMF which originates from the rheological configuration of the crust and lithosphere; (2) variations in deformation mechanisms with depth in response to variations in temperature and (fluid) pressure exert a first-order control on the mode of seismic activity along the MMF, and, (3) stress and strain concentrations due to strength and structural variability along the MMF can be used as an indicator for potential nucleation areas of expected earthquakes. To assess what mechanisms control the deformation along the MMF, we use data from the ICDP GONAF observatory (International Continental Drilling Programme – Geophysical Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault) and a combined work flow of data integration and process modelling to derive a quantitative description of the physical state of the MMF and its surrounding crust and upper mantle. Seismic and strain observations from the ICDP-GONAF site are integrated with regional observations on active seismicity, on the present-day deformation field at the surface, on the deep structure (crust and upper mantle) and on the present-day stress and thermal fields. This will be complemented by numerical forward simulations of coupled thermo-hydraulic-mechanical processes based on the observation-derived 3D models to evaluate the key controlling factors for the present-day mechanical configuration of the MMF and to contribute to a physics-based seismic hazard assessment.

How to cite: Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Cacace, M., Heidbach, O., Bohnhoff, M., Nurlu, M., Fernandez Terrones, N., Bott, J., and Gholamrezaie, E.: Deformation mechanisms along the Main Marmara Fault around the ICDP-site GONAF, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3538, 2022.

EGU22-3793 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Legacy DSDP and ODP data suggest a paradigm shift in methane hydrate stability in the Mediterranean Basin 

Cristina Corradin, Angelo Camerlenghi, Michela Giustiniani, Umberta Tinivella, and Claudia Bertoni

The global reservoir of submarine gas hydrates is favored by the cold temperature of oceanic bottom water and the generally low geothermal gradients along passive continental margins. The continental margins of the land-locked Mediterranean basin are a remarkable exception for the lack of evidence of extensive presence of gas hydrates. Using public data of the physics and chemistry of the subsurface available from 44 Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) wells as lithologic logs, downhole temperature measurements, and pore water salinity values, and observed physical characteristics of bottom waters, we model the theoretical methane hydrate stability zone (MHSZ) below the seafloor and in the water column.

We find important positive pore water salinity anomalies in the subsurface indicating the pervasive presence of concentrated brines up to saturation concentration of halite and gypsum (> 300 ‰). The resulting sub-bottom MHSZ is thinner by up to 90-95% with respect to its thickness calculated assuming constant salinity with depth equal to bottom waters salinity. In the Eastern Mediterranean deep basins the thickness of the subsurface MHSZ is largest (up to ~ 350 m) and the anomaly induced by subsurface brines is highest (~ -300 m), while in the Alboran, Western Mediterranean, Tyrrhenian, Sicily Channel, Adriatic and Aegean basins the MHSZ, where present, thins to less than 100 m with mostly negligible anomaly induced by the presence of subsurface brines.

Modelling results suggest that subsurface brines can produce dramatic reductions of the thickness of the MHSZ only where the geothermal gradient is low (Eastern Mediterranean). We have modelled the same brine-induced limiting effect on the thickness of the MHSZ in synthetic cases of high and low heat flow to simulate Western and Eastern Mediterranean subsurface thermo-haline conditions. The salinity effect is attenuated by the thermal effect in the Western Mediterranean that produces the most relevant thinning of the MHSZ.

The distribution of the MHSZ resulting from the modelling coincides well with the distribution of the Late Miocene salt deposits which limit further the possibility of formation of gas hydrates acting as low permeability seal to the up-ward migration of hydrocarbon gases.

This modelling exercise provides a robust explanation for the lack of evidence of widespread gas hydrates on Mediterranean continental margins, with the exception of areas of local methane upward advection such as mud volcanoes, and it outlines a number of local hydrate-limiting factors that make this basin unfavorable to gas hydrate occurrence.

How to cite: Corradin, C., Camerlenghi, A., Giustiniani, M., Tinivella, U., and Bertoni, C.: Legacy DSDP and ODP data suggest a paradigm shift in methane hydrate stability in the Mediterranean Basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3793, 2022.

EGU22-4022 | Presentations | SSP1.2 | Highlight

Half-precession signals in marine an terrestrial records – connecting IODP/ICDP sites from the equatorial Atlantic to Greenland 

Arne Ulfers, Christian Zeeden, Silke Voigt, Mehrdad Sardar Abadi, and Thomas Wonik

The characteristics of half-precession (HP) cycles (~9,000 - 12,000 years) is still poorly understood, despite their appearance in numerous records. We analyse HP signals in a variety of different marine and terrestrial proxy records from Europe and the Atlantic Ocean, investigate the temporal evolution of the HP signal from the early/middle Pleistocene to the present, and evaluate the potential of the HP to reflect the connectivity of climate systems over time.

We apply filters on the datasets that remove the classical orbital cycles (eccentricity, obliquity, precession) and high frequency signals, and focus on the bandwidth of HP signals. Wavelet annalysis and correlation techniques are used to study the evolution of specific frequencies through the different records.

In addition to a connection of HP cycles with interglacials, we observe a more pronounced HP signal in the younger part of several proxy records. Besides, we observe a trend of more pronounced HP signals in low latitude records compared to high latitudes. This is in agreement with the assumption that HP is an equatorial signal and can be transmitted northward via various pathways. The appearance of HP signals in mid- and high-latitude records may thus be an indicator for the intensity of the transporting mechanisms. We suggest that the African Monsoon plays a major role in this context, as its magnitude directly influences the climate systems of the Mediterranean and Southern Europe. In order to better understand the African climate variability, both equatorial marine and terrestrial records will be examined with respect to HP.

How to cite: Ulfers, A., Zeeden, C., Voigt, S., Sardar Abadi, M., and Wonik, T.: Half-precession signals in marine an terrestrial records – connecting IODP/ICDP sites from the equatorial Atlantic to Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4022, 2022.

Together with amphibole and garnet, epidote-group minerals are one of the three most important heavy minerals found in orogenic sediments (Garzanti and Andò, 2007). Their chemical composition and optical properties vary markedly with temperature and pressure conditions, and thus provide useful information in provenance analysis on the metamorphic grade of source rocks.

The aim of this study is to devise an efficient and quick method, with micrometric resolution to distinguish among the different species of the epidote group during routine point-counting of heavy-mineral slides, which can be applied on a vast ranges of grain-sizes from fine silt to medium sand.

The geochemical variability of epidote-supergroup minerals from different source rock collected in different sectors of the Alpine orogenic belt was first investigated by coupling Raman Spectroscopy, Scanning Electron Microscopy, and Energy-dispersed X-ray Spectroscopy (SEM-EDS). The geochemical composition, optical properties, and Raman fingerprints of these standard epidote grains were described and in-house database of Raman spectra was created, combining geochemical data and Raman response in the low wavenumbers region and OH stretching bands. A program, written in Matlab® language, has been established which allows to obtain a quick estimate of the amount of iron from the Raman spectra in the clinozoisite-epidote series.

Raman spectra of detrital epidotes contained in turbiditic sediments of the Bengal Fan (IODP Expedition 354) were next compared with Raman spectra of epidote-group standards to determine their composition. The identification and relative amount of detrital epidote, clinozoisite and zoisite in silt- and sand-sized deep-sea sediments contribute to constrain the metamorphic grade of Himalayan source rocks, reconstruct the erosional evolution of the Himalayan orogen, and provide information on climate change and strengthening of the Indian Ocean monsoon throughout the Neogene and Quaternary.

Key words: epidote, provenance, Himalaya, Raman spectroscopy, Microprobe analyses, optical microscope.

Garzanti, E., Andò S., 2007. Plate tectonics and heavy-mineral suites of modern sands. In: Mange, M.A., Wright, D.T. (Eds.), Heavy Minerals in Use, Developments in Sedimentology Series, 58. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 741-763.

How to cite: Limonta, M., Andò, S., Bersani, D., France-Lanord, C., and Garzanti, E.: Raman identification of epidote-group minerals in turbiditic sediments from the Bengal Fan (IODP Exp. 354): a complementary tool to better constrain metamorphic grade of source rocks., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6161, 2022.

A 6-meter drill core from Merensky Reef, Bushveld Complex, South Africa, was scanned in detail with a drill core scanner based on Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS). The purpose of the investigation was to visualize variations in the chemical composition along the core, and following a mineral classification of the LIBS data, of variations in the mineral chemical composition, e.g. of Fe/Mg, Cr/Al, and Ca/Na ratios, as well.

The LIBS technology is based on atomic emission spectroscopy, in which the excitation of the atomic species occurs in-situ on the sample surface. The excitation source was a pulsed 50 mJ 1064 nm Nd:YAG laser, and the emitted light was collected with a high-resolution wide-range echelle spectrograph with CCD detector. This approach for measuring mineral chemical ratios such as Mg/Fe, Cr/Al, and Ca/Na, is based on the strength of LIBS in detecting chemical variations using intensity ratios within a single matrix, which in this application is one single particular type of mineral phase. For validation purposes, selected samples were analysed with bulk chemical analysis and electron probe microanalysis as well.

Distinct trends could indeed be extracted from the 6 m core section through the Merensky Reef. From a saw-cut core surface without further preparation, a continuous record could be extracted consisting of Mg/Fe of orthopyroxene, Ca/Na of plagioclase, bulk chemical patterns, modal composition, and direct neighbourhood. The data can be used to highlight the presence of unusual patterns and to relate them to Ni, Cu, PGE or other mineralization. When applied to different core sections, it may become an important tool for comparing lateral variability of diagnostic horizons in vertical sequences in layered intrusions such as Merensky Reef and UG-2.

How to cite: Meima, J., Rammlmair, D., Junge, M., and Nikonow, W.: Continuous measurement of Mg/Fe and Ca/Na ratios with scanning Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy in 6 meter of drill core through Merensky Reef, Bushveld Complex, South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7513, 2022.

EGU22-8339 | Presentations | SSP1.2

How was the Bushveld Complex assembled? A search for cryptic layering in ICDP drillcores from the Main Zone 

Robert B. Trumbull, Ilya V. Veksler, Wilhelm Nikonov, and Dieter Rammlmair

The Main Zone of the Bushveld Complex in South Africa is the most voluminous but least studied part of the world’s largest igneous intrusion. Modal layering is poorly developed compared with the units above and below (Upper and Critical Zones, resp.), and most of the ca. 3000 meter-thick Main Zone consists of monotonous gabbronorite, occasionally grading into norite and anorthosite. An exception is the ultramafic “Pyroxenite Marker” near the top of the Main Zone, which is present regionally in the complex and represents a major event of magma recharge into the chamber. However, studies of drillcore through the Main Zone in the Bushveld Northern limb (Ashwal et al., 2005; Hayes et al., 2017) found evidence for layering by periodic variations in rock density at vertical length-scales of 40 to 170 m. This implies there were many more episodes of magma recharge than previously thought.

Our study in the Eastern Limb of the complex tests if cryptic layering in the Main Zone is a local phenomenon or is regionally developed like the Pyroxenite Marker. The first step, reported here, was a vertical profile of bulk density data (Archimedes method) for a 1450 m section of the upper Main Zone below the Pyroxenite Marker. Samples were taken at 1 to 5 m intervals and the results show several intervals of density variations at length-scales of 30 to 120 m, comparable to those previously described in the Northern Limb. Periodicity in density changes is not so well developed as in the earlier study, and we identified several 50 to 75 m intervals where density variations are below 0.05 g/cm3. The second step of the study will use multispectral and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) scanning to provide modal mineralogy profiles of the same drillcore samples used for density measurement. After cryptic modal layering is documented in this way, follow-up petrologic-geochemical studies at the layer boundaries will aim to characterize the composition and temperature of the magmas involved.

For this project the Bushveld Complex Drilling Project (BVDP) provided access to the BH7771 borehole, donated by Impala Platinum’s Marula mine.

References:

Ashwal, L..D., Webb, S.J. and Knoper, M.W. (2005) S. Afr. Jour. Geol., 108, 199-232.

Hayes, B., Ashwal, L.D., Webb, S.J. and Bybee, G.M. (2017) Contrib. Mineral. Petrol., 172, 13.

How to cite: Trumbull, R. B., Veksler, I. V., Nikonov, W., and Rammlmair, D.: How was the Bushveld Complex assembled? A search for cryptic layering in ICDP drillcores from the Main Zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8339, 2022.

EGU22-8952 | Presentations | SSP1.2

‘SaltGiant’ drilling in the Sorbas Basin: Structural, Petrophysical and Geochemical characterization of the Messinian Salinity Crisis deposits 

Fadl Raad, Philippe Pezard, Cesar Viseras, Francisco J. Sierro, Luis M. Yeste, Javier J. Aguila, Paula Jerez, Andrea Schleifer, Fabio Meneghini, Cinzia Bellezza, Johanna Lofi, Angelo Camerlenghi, and Giovanni Aloisi

The Late Miocene deposits in the Sorbas Basin (Spain) have been of an extreme importance in the understanding of the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) events (5.97-5.33 Ma). They consist of four formations. The pre-crisis Abad marls topped by the evaporitic Yesares gypsum member, followed by two non-evaporitic units known as the Sorbas and Zorreras members. Those deposits have been widely explored and studied thanks to the numerous outcropping sections in the basin.


The ‘SaltGiant’ European Training Network held a training school in October 2021 in the Sorbas Basin, where four boreholes (named SG0, 1, 2 and 3) covering most of the Messinian Salinity Crisis sequence, were drilled, cored and logged in this context along an overall thickness of about 175 m. The drillings took place inside and in the vicinity of the Torralba gypsum mine. It allowed for the first time in the scientific non-industrial domain, access to a continuous and non-outcropping succession of the Messinian deposits in the Sorbas basin. In addition to the recovered cores, borehole geophysical data were obtained from the four holes and digital images of the area were collected with a drone. Prior to the drilling, an OBO (Outcrop / Behind Outcrop) workflow was followed, which will allow integrating the outcrop and subsurface data by combining the 3D geometry of geobodies with geophysical information.


Optical borehole wall images provide mm-scale images of the borehole walls, highlighting the sedimentological and structural characteristics of the deposits. Downhole geophysical measurements included acoustic velocity, electrical resistivity and natural spectral gamma ray, which allowed determining the petrophysical characteristics of the penetrated lithologies. In addition to the petrophysical logs, a Vertical Seismic Profiling was performed in holes SG2 and SG3, including a multi-offset VSP survey in hole SG3.


The petrophysical characterization of the Messinian deposits will provide a reference case study for the lithologic characterization of MSC deposits in the subsurface elsewhere. VSP analysis provided an in-field preliminary seismic velocity evaluation in the encountered formations. Preliminary results confirm the astronomical precession-driven cyclicity observed elsewhere in the Messinian gypsum. Further processing and analyses of the large amount of acquired data will lead to identifying the astronomical and possibly higher-frequency cyclicity in the post-evaporitic deposits in the Sorbas member.

How to cite: Raad, F., Pezard, P., Viseras, C., Sierro, F. J., Yeste, L. M., Aguila, J. J., Jerez, P., Schleifer, A., Meneghini, F., Bellezza, C., Lofi, J., Camerlenghi, A., and Aloisi, G.: ‘SaltGiant’ drilling in the Sorbas Basin: Structural, Petrophysical and Geochemical characterization of the Messinian Salinity Crisis deposits, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8952, 2022.

EGU22-10040 | Presentations | SSP1.2

A profile through fast-spreading oceanic crust in the Oman ophiolite: reference frame for the crustal drillings within the ICDP Oman Drilling Project 

Jürgen Koepke, Dieter Garbe-Schönberg, Dominik Mock, and Samuel Müller

The Oman Ophiolite is the largest and best-investigated piece of ancient oceanic lithosphere on our planet. This ophiolite was target of the Oman Drilling Project (OmanDP) within the frame of ICDP (International Continental Scientific Drilling Program) which aimed to establish a comprehensive drilling program in order to understand essential processes related to the geodynamics of mid-ocean ridges, as magmatic formation, cooling/alteration by seawater-derived fluids, and the weathering with focus on the carbonatisation of peridotites.

Over two drilling seasons, the OmanDP has sampled the Samail Ophiolite sequence from crust to basal thrust. The total cumulative drilled length is 5458 m, with 3221 m of which was at 100% recovery. These cores were logged to IODP standards aboard the Japanese drilling vessel Chikyu during two description campaigns in summer 2017 and 2018. 

Here we present the main results of the working groups of the Universities Hannover and Kiel, focusing on the magmatic accretion of the Oman paleoridge. During 5 field campaigns these groups established a 5 km long profile through the whole crust of the Oman ophiolite by systematic outcrop sampling, providing the reference frame for the 400 m long OmanDP drill cores. The profile contains 463 samples from the mantle, through gabbros up to the dike/gabbro transition. Identical samples have been analyzed by several methods (bulk rock geochemistry, mineral analysis, Isotope geochemistry, EBSD analysis).

The results allow implication on the mechanism of accretion of fast-spreading lower oceanic crust. Depth profiles of mineral compositions combined with petrological modeling reveal insights into the mode of magmatic formation of fast-spreading lower oceanic crust, implying a hybrid accretion mechanism. The lower two thirds of the crust, mainly consisting of layered gabbros, formed via the injection of melt sills and in situ crystallization. Here, upward moving fractionated melts mixed with more primitive melts through melt replenishments, resulting in a slight but distinct upward differentiation trend. The upper third of the gabbroic crust is significantly more differentiated, in accord with a model of downward differentiation of a primitive parental melt originated from the axial melt lens located at the top of the gabbroic crust. Our hybrid model for crustal accretion requires a system to cool the deep crust, which was established by hydrothermal fault zones, initially formed on-axis at very high temperatures.

How to cite: Koepke, J., Garbe-Schönberg, D., Mock, D., and Müller, S.: A profile through fast-spreading oceanic crust in the Oman ophiolite: reference frame for the crustal drillings within the ICDP Oman Drilling Project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10040, 2022.

EGU22-10406 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Assessing the well logging data from the Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana) 

Christian Zeeden, Mathias Vinnepand, Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, William Gosling, Jochem Kück, and Thomas Wonik

Insights into the climate variability of western Africa during the Pleistocene epoch have thus far been limited by the lack of well-dated, high-resolution terrestrial climate archives. The missing information on the climate evolution of western African hampers our understanding of the proposed pan-African evolution of our species. The ~294 m lacustrine sedimentary sequence raised from Lake Bosumtwi by the International Continental Drilling program in 2004, encompassing the last ~1.1 Ma, offers the best opportunity provide a climatic benchmark record in western Africa. However, the establishment of a chronology for this record has proven challenging. To try and improve our understanding of the climatic evolution during the last ~1.1 Ma in western Africa, we will use the high-resolution downhole logging data (natural gamma ray, GR) and magnetic susceptibility data from core logging from Site 5, which is situated in the centre of Lake Bosumtwi. To maximise the robustness of this record we will try to correlate data from downhole logs with core data. This approach has help improve interpretation of logging signals and environmental reconstructions for other long lake records, such as e.g. Lake Ohrid.

How to cite: Zeeden, C., Vinnepand, M., Kaboth-Bahr, S., Gosling, W., Kück, J., and Wonik, T.: Assessing the well logging data from the Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10406, 2022.

EGU22-11265 | Presentations | SSP1.2

Heterogeneous deformation across the Papaku fault, Hikurangi accretionary prism 

Rebecca Kühn, Annika Greve, Rüdiger Kilian, Marcel Mizera, and Michael Stipp

At the Hikurangi convergent margin the Pacific plate is subducted westward beneath the Australian plate. This margin has been the location of major earthquakes as well as slow slip events related to the ongoing subduction. Drill site U1518 which was drilled during IODP Expedition 375, 73 km offshore Gisborne (New Zealand), targeted the Papaku fault, a splay fault of the major decollement in sediments of the frontal accretionary prism. We selected samples from the mostly hemipelagic, weakly consolidated mudstones in the fault zone, as well as from hangingwall and footwall. In order to investigate localized and distributed deformation in the fault zone, we analysed composition, microstructure and crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO). For that we applied µXRF measurements and optical microscopy, as well as synchrotron texture analysis at DESY in Hamburg.

The samples from hanging- and footwall sediments show a relatively homogeneous microstructure with local compositional layering. While CPO strength in the hangingwall is slightly increasing with depth for all analysed clay mineral phases, the CPO in the footwall samples is in general lower and does not show a clear trend with depth. This might be interpreted as different deformation histories in hangingwall and footwall which is in accordance with previous studies. Fault zone samples show a variety of microstructures, such as mingling of different sedimentary components, locally overprinted by microfaults. CPO strength in the faulted sediments is also variable, with zones showing strong alignment of phyllosilicates and zones showing weak alignment of phyllosilicates. Variations in CPO and variable distribution of sedimentary components indicate a heterogeneous deformation within the fault zone which might be due to local compositional variations.

How to cite: Kühn, R., Greve, A., Kilian, R., Mizera, M., and Stipp, M.: Heterogeneous deformation across the Papaku fault, Hikurangi accretionary prism, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11265, 2022.

EGU22-64 | Presentations | G3.1

Surface loading on GNSS stations in Africa 

Saturday Ehisemhen Usifoh, T.Nhung Le, Benjamin Männel, Pierre Sakic, Dodo Joseph, and Harald Schuh

Surface loading on GNSS stations in Africa

Usifoh Saturday E1,2,3, Nhung Le Thi1,2, Benjamin Männel1, Pierre Sakic1, Dodo Joseph3, Harald Schuh1,2
1GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, 2Institut für Geodäsie und Geoinformationstechnik Technische Universität, Berlin, Germany, 3Centre for Geodesy and Geodynamics, Toro, Bauchi State, Nigeria.

 Corresponding author: parker@gfz-potsdam.de

Abstract

The global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) have revolutionalized the ability to monitor the Earth’s system related to different types of natural processes. This includes tectonic and volcanic deformation, earthquake-related displacements, redistribution of oceanic and atmospheric mass, and changes in the continental water storage. As loading affects the GNSS cordinates, we investigated the effect and assessed the impact of applying dedicated corrections provided by the Earth System Modeling group of German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ). However, loading caused by mass redistribution results in displacement, predominantly with seasonal periods. Significant temporal changes in mass redistribution (e.g caused by climate change) will result to further trends in the station coordinate time series.

In this contribution, we will compare the PPP coordinate time series with the loading-corrected PPP time series by looking at the amplitude and the correlation between the GNSS time series and the model corrections. Also we will compare the PPP coordinate time series with the loading time series by assessing the RMS reduction and change of amplitude.The result shows that loading-induced displacement varies considerably among GNSS stations and applying corrections to the derived time series has favourable impacts on the reduction in the non-linear motion in GNSS height time series of the African stations.

How to cite: Usifoh, S. E., Le, T. N., Männel, B., Sakic, P., Joseph, D., and Schuh, H.: Surface loading on GNSS stations in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-64, 2022.

EGU22-246 | Presentations | G3.1

Benchmarking Amazonian GPS stations: an improved way to model hydrological changes 

Grzegorz Leszczuk, Anna Klos, Jurgen Kusche, Artur Lenczuk, Helena Gerdener, and Janusz Bogusz

Hydrological loading is one of the main contributors into seasonal displacements of the Earth’s crust, as derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) permanent stations. Recent studies proved that hydrological signatures may be also observed in GPS displacements outside seasonal band. Such estimates may be, however, biased, since (1) total character of GPS displacements is generated by a set of geophysical phenomena combined with GPS-specific signals and errors and (2) the exact sensitivity of GPS for individual components has not yet been properly recognized. In this study, we propose a completely new approach to establish a set of benchmarks of GPS stations, for which sensitivity to geophysical phenomena is identified. We focus on hydrological changes within the Amazon basin, but the same approach could be employed to analyze other phenomena. Analysis is performed for vertical displacements from 63 GPS stations provided by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL), collected between 1995 and 2021. Results are compared to data from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and GRACE Follow-On missions (2002-2021), provided by GFZ (GeoForschungsZentrum) as RL06 solution in a form of spherical harmonic coefficients truncated to d/o 96, filtered with DDK3 decorrelation anisotropic filter. We also utilize GLWS (Global Land Water Storage) datatset provided by University of Bonn, as a result of assimilation of GRACE Total Water Storage (TWS) anomalies into WaterGAP Global Hydrological Model (WGHM). We make also use of two hydrological models: pure WGHM and GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System), for which TWS values are provided. Both GRACE and TWS data are converted to vertical displacements of Earth’s crust using load Love numbers, while GPS displacements are reduced for non-tidal atmospheric and oceanic changes. We find the largest values of trends and annual signals for GPS stations proximate to Amazon river. GRACE, GLWS and hydrological models disagree at the level of 8 mm, at maximum. This is mainly caused by the GLDAS model which lacks in the contribution of surface water. Supplementing GLDAS with surface water layer employed from WGHM reduces this difference to 1 mm. Benchmarks of GPS stations are established by using a wavelet decomposition with Meyer’s mother wavelet. We divide both the GPS, GRACE and GLWS displacement time series into 4 decomposition levels, defined by exact periods they contain. Then, we compute correlation coefficients between individual levels of details. We show that the number of 32%, 64%, 97%, 89% and 68% out of 63 GPS stations is significantly correlated to GRACE for periods, respectively, from 2 to 5 months, from 4 to 9 months, from 7 months to 1.4 years, from 1.1 to 3.0 years and from 3.0 years onwards. These numbers change into: 48%, 73%, 100%, 81% and 50% out of 63 GPS stations, when GRACE is replaced with GLWS. 12 or 21 out of 63 GPS stations correlate positively with GRACE or GLWS within entire frequency band, which means that a character of these GPS displacement time series is generated mostly by hydrological changes.

How to cite: Leszczuk, G., Klos, A., Kusche, J., Lenczuk, A., Gerdener, H., and Bogusz, J.: Benchmarking Amazonian GPS stations: an improved way to model hydrological changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-246, 2022.

EGU22-1449 | Presentations | G3.1

Efficiency of different signal processing methods to isolate signature characteristics in altimetric water level measurements 

Siavash Iran Pour, Annette Eicker, Kyriakos Balidakis, Hamed Karimi, Alireza Amiri-Simkooei, and Henryk Dobslaw

Observed time-series of water transport in rivers can be perceived mathematically as a superposition of non-linear long-term trends, periodic variations, episodic events, colored instrument noise, and other components. Various statistical methods are readily available to extract and quantify both stationary and non-stationary components in order to subsequently attribute parts of the signal to underlying causal mechanisms. However, the available algorithms differ vastly in terms of computational complexity and implicit assumptions, and may thus have their own individual advantages and disadvantages. By employing a suite of time-series analysis methods for 1D (Wavelets, Singular Spectrum Analysis, Empirical Mode Decomposition) and additional statistical assessments like Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) tests for change point detection, we will analyze data from two virtual stations at Elbe River (Germany) and Urmia Lake (Iran) that are representative for the central European region with a rather humid climate, and the more arid conditions of Central Asia with much smaller hydrological signal variations, respectively. It is in particular the latter region with a much less developed in situ hydrometeorological observing system, where we expect that carefully processed geodetic data might contribute most to the monitoring of large-scale terrestrial water dynamics. This contribution will highlight the benefits of more advanced signal analysis methods for extracting relevant hydrometeorological information over more conventionally applied algorithms.

How to cite: Iran Pour, S., Eicker, A., Balidakis, K., Karimi, H., Amiri-Simkooei, A., and Dobslaw, H.: Efficiency of different signal processing methods to isolate signature characteristics in altimetric water level measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1449, 2022.

Global and interactively coupled climate models are important tools for projecting future climate conditions. Even though the quality and reliability of such models has increased during the most recent years, large model uncertainties still exist for various climate elements, so that it is crucial to continuously evaluate them against independent observations. Changes in the distribution and availability of terrestrial water storage (TWS), which can be measured by the satellite gravimetry missions GRACE and GRACE-FO, represent an important part of the climate system in general, and the terrestrial water cycle in particular. However, the use of satellite gravity data for the evaluation of interactively coupled climate models has only very recently become feasible. Challenges mainly arise from large model differences with respect to land water storage-related variables, from conceptual discrepancies between modeled and observed TWS, and from the still rather short time series of satellite data.

This presentation will highlight the latest results achieved from our ongoing research on climate model evaluation based on the analysis of an ensemble of models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We will focus on long-term wetting and drying conditions in TWS, by deriving several hot spot regions of common trends in GRACE/-FO observations and regions of large model consensus. However, as the observational record currently only covers about 20 years, observed trends may still be obscured by natural climate variability. Therefore, to further attribute the wetting or drying in the identified hot spot regions to either interannual/decadal variability or anthropogenic climate change, we investigate the influence of dedicated climate modes (such as ENSO, PDO, AMO etc.) on TWS variability and trends. Furthermore, we perform a numerical model investigation with 250 years of CMIP6 TWS data to quantify the degree to which trends computed over differently long time intervals can be expected to represent long-term trends, and to discriminate regions of rather robust trends from regions of large fluctuations in the trend caused by decadal climate variability.

How to cite: Jensen, L., Eicker, A., and Dobslaw, H.: Attributing land water storage trends from satellite gravimetry to long-term wetting and drying conditions with global climate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2335, 2022.

EGU22-2586 | Presentations | G3.1

Contributions of ocean bottom pressure and density changes to regional sea level change in the East Indian Ocean from GRACE, altimetry and Argo data 

Alisa Yakhontova, Roelof Rietbroek, Jürgen Kusche, Sophie Stolzenberger, and Bernd Uebbing

Understanding variations in the ocean heat content is tightly linked to understanding interactions of the global energy cycle with the regional water cycle. Mass, volume, temperature and density changes of  the ocean water column can be estimated with complimentary observations of sea surface height from radar altimetry, ocean bottom pressure from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), temperature and salinity from Argo floats. These three techniques have their specific deficiencies and advantages, which can be exploited in a joint inversion framework in order to improve temporal and spatial coverage of oceanic temperature and salinity estimates as well as regionally varying sea level contributions. Solving an inverse problem for temperature and salinity, forward operators are formulated linking the satellite observations to temperature and salinity at depth. This is done by (1) parametrization of temperature and salinity profiles over the full depth of the ocean with B-splines to reduce dimensionality while keeping complexity of the data intact and (2) linearization of the integrated density from parameterized T/S curves. We apply forward operators in the East Indian Ocean to resolve for sea surface height, ocean bottom pressure, temperature and salinity, and assess the regional importance of these factors. We explore the stability of a joint inversion using these forward operators in combination with along-track radar altimetry, GRACE and temperature and salinity by exploring a closed-loop inversion.

How to cite: Yakhontova, A., Rietbroek, R., Kusche, J., Stolzenberger, S., and Uebbing, B.: Contributions of ocean bottom pressure and density changes to regional sea level change in the East Indian Ocean from GRACE, altimetry and Argo data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2586, 2022.

EGU22-3415 | Presentations | G3.1

Trends in Africa’s Terrestrial Water Storage 

Eva Boergens and Andreas Güntner

The German-American satellite missions GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and its successor GRACE-Follow-On (GRACE-FO) observed the unique data set of total water storage (TWS) variations over the continents since 2002. With this nearly 20 years of data, we can investigate trends in water storage beyond the strong declining trends of the ice sheets and glaciers. Unlike all other continents, Africa exhibits an overall positive trend in TWS. This contribution will take a detailed look into Africa's water storage changes and trends. Further, we attempt to explain these trends by comparison to other hydrological observations such as precipitation.

The long-term TWS increase in Africa is most pronounced in the East-African rift centred around Lake Victoria and the Niger River Basin. Other regions such as Madagaskar exhibit a (statistically significant) negative TWS trend. Furthermore, the trends are not monotonous over time. For example, the increasing trend in East Africa only started around the year 2006 and accelerated after 2012. On the other hand, South Africa wetted until 2012 and dried again since then.

This study divides the African continent into climatically similar regions and investigates the regional mean TWS signals. They are more complex than a linear trend and sinusoidal annual and semiannual seasonality; thus, we employ the STL method (Seasonal Trend decomposition based on Loess). In this way, turning points are identified in the so-called trend component to mark significant trend changes.

The observed TWS changes in Africa are caused mainly by changing precipitation patterns, as observed, for example, with the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data set. In some regions, such as South Africa, the correlation between precipitation and TWS change is evident, whereas other areas show a more complex relationship between these two variables.

 

How to cite: Boergens, E. and Güntner, A.: Trends in Africa’s Terrestrial Water Storage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3415, 2022.

EGU22-3734 | Presentations | G3.1

Closing the water balance of large watersheds using satellite gravimetry 

Roelof Rietbroek, Marloes Penning de Vries, Yijian Zeng, and Bob Su

At the level of a watershed, the conservation of mass imposes that the net moisture transport through the atmospheric boundaries is balanced by the river discharge and an accumulation/depletion in terrestrial sources such as the soil, surface waters and groundwater.

There are considerable uncertainties connected with modelled water balance components, especially since most models only simulate part of the system: either the atmosphere, the surface or the subsurface. Uncertainties in boundary conditions propagate as biases in the simulated results. For example, not accounting for anthropogenic groundwater extraction potentially introduces biases in arid regions, where groundwater is a non-negligible source of moisture for the atmosphere. The use of observations is therefore an important aid to evaluate model performances and to detect possible biases in water balance components.

In this contribution, we compare total water storage changes derived from the Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-on mission, with modelled components of the water balance. We use ERA5 reanalysis data to compute (net) atmospheric transports, and river discharge from GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System). Furthermore, we use precipitation estimates (e.g. from GPCC) together with evapotranspiration from the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS). We finally perform an accounting of the water balance components for the world’s largest watersheds and show to what extent we can find agreements, inconsistencies and biases in the data and models.

How to cite: Rietbroek, R., Penning de Vries, M., Zeng, Y., and Su, B.: Closing the water balance of large watersheds using satellite gravimetry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3734, 2022.

EGU22-4918 | Presentations | G3.1

Drought Identification in NLDAS Data using Machine Learning Methods 

Corinne Vassallo, Srinivas Bettadpur, and Clark Wilson

Though machine learning (ML) methods have been around for decades, they have only more recently been adopted in the geosciences. The availability of existing long data records combined with the capability of ML algorithms to learn highly non-linear relationships between data sources means there is even more potential for the replacement or augmentation of existing scientific analyses with ML methods. Here, I give an example of how I used a convolutional neural network (CNN) for the task of pixelwise classification of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Total Water Storage data into their corresponding drought levels based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Promising results indicate there is much to be explored in the application of ML to drought identification and monitoring.

How to cite: Vassallo, C., Bettadpur, S., and Wilson, C.: Drought Identification in NLDAS Data using Machine Learning Methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4918, 2022.

EGU22-5765 | Presentations | G3.1

Water mass impacts of the main climate drivers over Australia by satellite gravimetry 

Guillaume Ramillien, Lucia Seoane, and José Darrozes

We propose a spatial characterization of the hydrological contributions of several climate drivers that impact continental water mass storage of Australia determined by remote sensing techniques over the period 2002 - 2021. For this purpose, the Slepian functions help for recognizing the signatures of such important changes in the varying gravity field solutions provided by GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite missions such as mascon solutions of 400-km resolution. Time series of 25 Slepian coefficients that correspond to ~99.9% of the eigenvalue spectrum are used to be analyzed and compared to the profiles of climate indexes i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and South Annular Mode (SAM). The best correlations enable to extract specific Slepian coefficients, and then reconstruct the regional hydrological structures that concern each climate driver, in particular for the southeastern basins strongly influenced by the important flooding during La Niña episode of 2010.

How to cite: Ramillien, G., Seoane, L., and Darrozes, J.: Water mass impacts of the main climate drivers over Australia by satellite gravimetry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5765, 2022.

EGU22-6390 | Presentations | G3.1

A new method for the attribution of breakpoints in segmentation of IWV difference time series 

Khanh Ninh Nguyen, Olivier Bock, and Emilie Lebarbier

In recent years, the detection and correction of the non-natural irregularities in the long climatic records, so-called homogenization, has been studied. This work is motivated by the problem of identification of origins of the breakpoints in the segmentation of difference series (difference between a candidate series and a reference series). Several segmentation methods have been developed for the difference series, but many of them assume that the reference series is homogenous. However, the homogeneity of the reference series, in reality, is uncertain and unproven. In our study, we applied the segmentation method GNSSseg (Quarello et al., 2020) on the difference between the Integrated water vapour estimates of the CODE REPRO2015 GNSS data set and the ERA5 reanalysis. About 36.5% of change points can be validated from the GPS metadata, and the origins of the remaining 64.5% are questionable (Nguyen et al., 2021). The ambiguity can be leveraged when there is at least one nearby GPS station with respect to which the candidate series can be compared. The proposed method uses weighted t-tests combining the candidate GPS and ERA series and their homologues (denoted GPS' and ERA') from each nearby station. If sufficient consistency emerges from the six tests for all the nearby stations, a decision can be made whether the breakpoint detected in the candidate GPS-ERA series is due to GPS or, alternatively, to ERA. For each quadruplet (GPS, ERA, GPS', ERA'), six t-tests are performed, and the outcomes are combined. In a set of 81 globally distributed GNSS time series spanning more than 25 years, 56 series have at least one nearby station, where 171 breakpoints are detected in segmentation, in which 136 breakpoints are attributed to the GPS. Among those, 94 breakpoints have consistent results between all the nearby stations. GPS-related breakpoints are used for the correction of the mean shift in the difference series. The impact of the breakpoint correction on the GNSS IWV trend estimates is then evaluated. 

Quarello A, Bock O, & Lebarbier E. (2020). A new segmentation method for the homogenisation of GNSS-derived IWV time-series. arXiv: Methodology.

Nguyen KN, Quarello A, Bock O, Lebarbier E. Sensitivity of Change-Point Detection and Trend Estimates to GNSS IWV Time Series Properties. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(9):1102. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091102

How to cite: Nguyen, K. N., Bock, O., and Lebarbier, E.: A new method for the attribution of breakpoints in segmentation of IWV difference time series, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6390, 2022.

EGU22-6800 | Presentations | G3.1

Intensifying hydrologic drought in California 

Donald Argus, Hilary Martens, Adrian Borsa, David Wiese, Ellen Knappe, Stacy Larochelle, Mackenzie Anderson, Athina Peidou, Ashlesha Khatiwada, Nicholas Lau, Alissa White, Zachary Hoylman, Matthew Swarr, Qian Cao, Ming Pan, Kristel Chanard, Jean-Philippe Avouac, Gardner Payton, and Felix Landerer

Drought has struck the southwest U.S. for the fourth time this millennium, reducing freshwater available to agriculture and urban centers.  We are bringing new insight by quantifying change in water in the ground using GPS elastic displacements, GRACE gravity, artificial reservoir levels, and snow models. Precipitation in Water Year 2021 was half of normal; the rise in total water in autumn and winter is 1/3 of the seasonal average (estimated using chiefly GPS); water was parched from the ground in the spring and summer, bringing water in the ground to its historic low (estimated using primarily GRACE).  In the Central Valley, soil moisture plus groundwater each year increases by 11 km3 and is maximum in April.  Only half of groundwater lost during periods of drought is replenished in subsequent years of heavy precipitation.  The Central Valley has lost groundwater at 2 km3/year from 2006 to 2021, with 2/3 of the loss coming from the southern Valley.

How to cite: Argus, D., Martens, H., Borsa, A., Wiese, D., Knappe, E., Larochelle, S., Anderson, M., Peidou, A., Khatiwada, A., Lau, N., White, A., Hoylman, Z., Swarr, M., Cao, Q., Pan, M., Chanard, K., Avouac, J.-P., Payton, G., and Landerer, F.: Intensifying hydrologic drought in California, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6800, 2022.

EGU22-7081 | Presentations | G3.1

GPS-based multi-annual variation of the precipitable water over Poland territory 

Andrzej Araszkiewicz, Michał Mierzwiak, Damian Kiliszek, Joanna Nowak Da Costa, and Marcin Szołucha

Earth's visible environmental changes, both natural and man-made, are influencing climate change on a global scale. For this reason, it is necessary to continuously monitor these changes and study the impact of human activities on them. One of the parameters indicating climate change is the systematic increase in temperature for the last 80 years. It causes more evaporation of water from natural and artificial water bodies. Consequently, the water content in the atmosphere is also increasing. Precipitable water is therefore one of the most important parameters when studying climate change. 

The aim of this study was to analyze long-term precipitation water data from a dense GNSS network over Poland. Twelve-year observations from over a hundred ASG-EUPOS stations were used to estimate changes in precipitation water values. These data were verified by comparison with available radio sounding data. Analysis of GPS-based PW values showed a clear increasing trend in PW values by 0.078 mm/year. The spatial-temporal distribution of mean PW values and their fluctuations over the years have been investigated. The obtained results confirm the fact that Poland lies on the border of continental and oceanic climate influence, and are in agreement with climate research concerning this region. 

How to cite: Araszkiewicz, A., Mierzwiak, M., Kiliszek, D., Nowak Da Costa, J., and Szołucha, M.: GPS-based multi-annual variation of the precipitable water over Poland territory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7081, 2022.

EGU22-7583 | Presentations | G3.1

Using satellite geodesy for carbon cycle research 

Alexandra Klemme, Thorsten Warneke, Heinrich Bovensmann, Matthias Weigelt, Jürgen Müller, Justus Notholt, and Claus Lämmerzahl

To assess realistic climate change mitigation strategies, it is important to research and understand the global carbon cycle. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Their atmospheric concentrations are affected by anthropogenic emissions as well as exchange fluxes with oceans and the terrestrial biosphere. For the prediction of future atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, it is critical to understand how the natural exchange fluxes respond to a changing climate. One of the factors that impact these fluxes is the changing hydrological cycle.        
In our project, we combine information about the hydrological cycle from geodetic satellites (e.g. GRACE & GRACE-FO) with carbon cycle observations from other satellites (e.g. TROPOMI & OCO-2). Specifically, we plan to investigate the impact of a changing water level in soils on CH4 emissions from wetlands and on the photosynthetic CO2 uptake of plants. Details of our approach and first results will be presented.

How to cite: Klemme, A., Warneke, T., Bovensmann, H., Weigelt, M., Müller, J., Notholt, J., and Lämmerzahl, C.: Using satellite geodesy for carbon cycle research, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7583, 2022.

EGU22-7903 | Presentations | G3.1

Identification of conceptual rainfall-runoff models of large drainage basins based on GRACE and in-situ data 

Karim Douch, Peyman Saemian, and Nico Sneeuw

Since 2002, estimates of the spatio-temporal variations of Earth’s gravity field derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE and now GRACE-FO) mission measurements have provided new insights into large scale water redistributions at inter-annual, seasonal and sub-seasonal timescales. It has been shown for example that for many large drainage basins the empirical relationship between aggregated Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) and discharge at the outlet reveals an underlying dynamic that is approximately linear and time-invariant.

In this contribution, we further analyse this relationship in the case of the Amazon basin and sub-basins by investigating different physically interpretable, lumped-parameter models for the TWS-discharge dynamics. To this end, we first put forward a linear and continuous-time model using a state-space representation. We then enhance the model by introducing a non-linear term accounting for the observed saturation of the discharge. Finally, we reformulate the model by replacing the discharge by the river stage at the outlet and add a prescribed model of the rating curve to obtain the discharge. The suggested models are successively calibrated against TWS anomaly derived from GRACE data and discharge or river stage records using the prediction-error-method. It is noteworthy that one of the estimated parameters can be interpreted as the total amount of drainable water stored across the basin, a quantity that cannot be observed by GRACE alone. This quantity is estimated to be on average 1,750 km³ during the period 2004-2009. These models are eventually combined with the equation of water mass balance, in order to obtain a consistent representation of the basin-scale rainfall-runoff dynamics suited to data assimilation.

How to cite: Douch, K., Saemian, P., and Sneeuw, N.: Identification of conceptual rainfall-runoff models of large drainage basins based on GRACE and in-situ data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7903, 2022.

EGU22-8525 | Presentations | G3.1

Combining space gravimetry observations with data from satellite altimetry and high resolution visible imagery to resolve mass changes of endorheic basins and exorheic basins. 

Alejandro Blazquez, Etienne Berthier, Benoit Meyssignac, Laurent Longuevergne, and Jean-François Crétaux

Continuous monitoring of the Global Terrestrial Water Storage changes (TWS) is challenging because of the large surface of continents and the variety of storage compartments (WCRP, 2018). The only observing system which provides global TWS mass change estimates so far is space gravimetry. Unfortunately, most storage compartments (lakes, groundwater, glaciers…) are too small to be resolved given the current spatial resolution of gravimetry missions. This intrinsic property makes gravimetry-based TWS changes estimates difficult to attribute and to interpret at individual basin scale.

In this context, combining gravimetry-based TWS estimates with other sources of information with higher spatial resolution is a promising strategy. In this study, we combine gravimetry data with independent observations from satellite altimetry and high resolution visible imagery to derive refined estimates of the TWS changes in hydrological basins containing lakes and glaciers (See Data used). The combination consists in including independent observations of glacier (Hugonnet et al., 2021) and lake (Cretaux et al., 2016) mass changes in the conversion process from gravity L2 data to water mass changes data. The combination is done for all regions of the world on a monthly basis.

This approach allows to split properly glacier and TWS changes at interannual to decadal time scales, and derive glacier-free estimates of TWS in the endorheic basins and the exorheic basins. We find that for the period from 2002 to 2020, the total TWS trend of 0.23±0.25 mm SLE/yr is mainly due to a mass loss in endorheic basins TWS of 0.20±0.12 mm SLE/yr. Over the same period, exorheic basins present a non-significative trend of 0.03±0.14 mm SLE/yr. On the contrary, the interannual variability in the TWS change of 4 mm SLE is mainly due to the exorheic basins TWS change.

How to cite: Blazquez, A., Berthier, E., Meyssignac, B., Longuevergne, L., and Crétaux, J.-F.: Combining space gravimetry observations with data from satellite altimetry and high resolution visible imagery to resolve mass changes of endorheic basins and exorheic basins., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8525, 2022.

Satellite gravity missions are unique observation systems to directly observe mass transport processes in the Earth system. Since 2000, CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE, and GRACE-FO have almost continuously been observing Earth’s mass changes and have improved our understanding of large-scale processes such as the global water cycle, melting of continental ice sheets and mountain glaciers, changes in ocean mass that are closely related to the mass-related component of sea-level rise, which are subtle indicators of climate change, on global to regional scale. The existing observation record of more than two decades is already closing in on the minimum time series of 30 years needed to decouple natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms according to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

Next Generation Gravity Missions (NGGMs) are expected to be implemented in the near future to continue the observation record. The Mass-change And Geoscience International Constellation (acronym: MAGIC) is a joint investigation of ESA with NASA’s MCDO study resulting in a jointly accorded Mission Requirements Document (MRD) responding to global user community needs. These NGGM concepts have set high anticipation for enhanced monitoring capabilities of mass transports in the Earth’s system with significantly improved spatial and temporal resolution. They will allow an evaluation of long-term trends within the Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS), which was adopted as a new Essential Climate Variable in 2020.

This study is based on modeled mass transport time series of components of the TWS, obtained from future climate projections until the year 2100 following the shared socio-economic pathway scenario 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5). It evaluates the recoverability of long-term climate trends, annual amplitude, and phase of the TWS employing closed-loop numerical simulations of different current and NGGM concepts up to a spatial resolution of 250 km (Spherical Harmonic Degree 80). The assumed satellite constellations are GRACE-type in-line single-pair missions and Bender double-pair missions with realistic noise assumptions for the key payload and ocean-tide background model errors. In the interpretation and discussion of the results, special emphasis will be given on the dependence of the length of the measurement time series and the quantification of the robustness of the derived trends, systematic changes, as well as possibilities to improve the trend parameterization.

How to cite: Schlaak, M., Pail, R., Jensen, L., and Eicker, A.: Closed Loop Simulations on Recoverability of Climate-Related Mass Transport Signals in Current and Next-Generation Satellite Gravity Missions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8529, 2022.

EGU22-9943 | Presentations | G3.1

Geodetic climate research in the Austrian Alps 

Christian Ullrich, Olivier Francis, Sajad Tabibi, and Helmut Titz

The Federal Office of Metrology and Surveying (BEV) in Austria is responsible for the geodetic reference system like gravity and height reference frame. Some of these gravity reference stations are monitored regularly by different geodetic terrestrial techniques. The gravity data on some stations show variations and/or changes in gravity. In this presentation, the alpine geodetic reference stations Obergurgl and Franz-Josefs- Höhe in the Austrian eastern Alps will be presented. Both stations are investigated with different geodetic terrestrial techniques in a cooperation of the University of Luxemburg with BEV.

Global warming and associated climate change during the last century and recent decades are among the main reasons for glacier retreat in the Alps. Absolute gravity measurements have been regularly performed in the Austrian Eastern Alps since 1987 in the Ötztal Valley at Obergurgl. In addition, absolute gravity has been regularly observed at Obergurgl from 1987 to 2009 with the absolute gravimeter JILAg6. From 2010, the absolute gravity measurements were continued with the highest accurate absolute gravimeters FG5 from BEV and FG5x from University of Luxemburg. The newest gravity data show again a small increase of gravity. Additionally, a permanent GNSS station was established in 2019 to record information about the assumed vertical uplift at this station.

A second alpine research station was established near the Pasterze Glacier at Großglockner Mountain in 2019. The Pasterze Glacier is one of the largest glaciers in the eastern Alps and is in the vicinity of the highest mountain of Austria, the Großglockner. The station is monitored by repeated absolute gravity measurements and is equipped with a permanent GNSS station. In addition, precise leveling measurements were also tied to this station. In this contribution, initial results of the geodetic research like the gravity results, precise leveling and GNSS measurements will be presented. In the future, gravity data will be quantitively compared to ice mass balance information derived from glacier inventories. A Geodetic Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R) antenna will also be installed to study glacier-ice change. A third station at an altitude of 3300 m is planned and will be checked for operating absolute gravity measurements there. The geodynamical processes like vertical uplift and postglacial deformation will be investigated together with glacier retreat on these stations.

How to cite: Ullrich, C., Francis, O., Tabibi, S., and Titz, H.: Geodetic climate research in the Austrian Alps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9943, 2022.

EGU22-10152 | Presentations | G3.1

GNSS observations of the land uplift in South Africa: Implication for water loss estimation 

Christian Mielke, Makan Karegar, Helena Gerdener, and Jürgen Kusche

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks in South Africa indicate a spatially coherent uplift. The cause of this uplift is not clear, but one hypothesis is a crustal deformation due to mantle flow and dynamic topography (Hammond et al., 2021, JGR Solid Earth). We provide an alternative evidence based on elastic loading modelling and independent observations, suggesting that land water loss due to multiple drought periods is a dominant driver of land uplift in South Africa.

The use of continuously measuring GNSS stations has proven to be a successful method for quantifying terrestrial water mass changes, by inverting the observed vertical displacements of the Earth’s crust. Depending on the density of the GNSS network, this method has the potential to derive not only temporal but also spatial higher-resolution total water storage change (TWSC) than the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions. Since vertical displacements in GNSS data are not only affected by water mass changes, extensive time series analyses are required to reduce or eliminate non-hydrology-related deformations, such as non-tidal oceanic and atmospheric loading. In this way, GNSS also offers an alternative method to monitor the frequently occurring droughts in South Africa, like the severe “Day Zero” drought in Cape Town from 2015-2017.

In this study, daily GNSS time series of vertical displacements (2000-present) are analysed. A long-term trend as well as annual and semi-annual signals are separated from the noisy observations using Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA). The final time series of all stations are inverted into water mass loading over a uniform grid, with the deformation properties of the Earth’s crust being defined by the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). An experimental approach shows that a 2° x 2° grid resolution of the GNSS-derived TWSC provides appropriate solutions over most of South Africa. The GNSS solution agrees with a GRACE-assimilated solution and a hydrological model at monthly scale over different provinces, with correlations up to 93% and 94%, respectively. The long-term trend averaged over the entire country is correlated with 80% and 54%, respectively. Negative long-term TWSC trends are evident in all data sets and provide compelling evidence that long-term land uplift in South Africa has a hydrological origin.

How to cite: Mielke, C., Karegar, M., Gerdener, H., and Kusche, J.: GNSS observations of the land uplift in South Africa: Implication for water loss estimation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10152, 2022.

EGU22-10986 | Presentations | G3.1

How changes in compartments of water storage affect the vegetation? 

Srinivas Pernati, Komali Bharath Narayana Reddy, and Balaji Devaraju

The relationship between water storage and vegetation growth differs with changes in different water
compartments such as total water storage, soil moisture and groundwater. This relationship can be
established between variations in water storage and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
values. The compartments of water storage anomalies were computed with Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data sets. NDVI data from
Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) was used to compare with water storage
anomalies. These water storage anomalies and NDVI values were aggregated over each sub-basin of the
Ganga catchment. A correlation analysis was made between water storage components and NDVI values,
which helped to determine how vegetation growth depends on changes in different water compartments.
Initial computations of auto-correlation and cross-correlation between water storage components and
NDVI show different lags for different sub-basins. 

How to cite: Pernati, S., Bharath Narayana Reddy, K., and Devaraju, B.: How changes in compartments of water storage affect the vegetation?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10986, 2022.

EGU22-12642 | Presentations | G3.1 | G Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture

Geodesy: a sensor for hydrology 

Kristel Chanard

Understanding how the Earth’s shape, gravity field and rotation change in response to shifting hydrological, atmospherical and oceanic mass loads at its surface has great potential for monitoring the evolving climate. Recent advances in the field, namely hydrogeodesy, have required hand-in-hand development and improvement of the observing techniques and of our understanding of the solid Earth-climate interactions. 

In particular, measurement of the spatial and temporal variations of the Earth's gravity field by the GRACE and GRACE-Follow On satellite missions offer an unprecedented measurement of the evolution of water mass redistribution, at timescales ranging from months to decades. However, the use of GRACE and GRACE-FO data for hydrological applications presents two major difficulties. First, the mission design and data processing lead to measurement noise and errors that limit GRACE missions to large-scale applications and complicates geophysical interpretation. Moreover, temporal observational gaps, including the 11 month-long gap between missions, prevent the interpretation of long-term mass variations. Secondly, disentangling sources of signals from the solid Earth and continental hydrology is challenging and requires to develop methods benefiting from multiple geodetic techniques. 

To reduce noise and enhance geophysical signals in the data, we develop a method based on a spectral analysis by Multiple Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA) which, using the spatio-temporal correlations of the GRACE-GRACE-FO time series, can fill observational gaps and remove a significant portion of the distinctive noise pattern while maintaining the best possible spatial resolution. This processing reveals hydrological signals that are less well or not resolved by other processing strategies. We discuss regional hydrological mass balance, including lakes, aquifers and ice caps regions, derived from the GRACE-GRACE-FO M-SSA solution. Furthermore, we discuss methods to separate sources of gravity variations using additional in-situ hydrological data or geodetic measurements of the Earth’s deformation. 

How to cite: Chanard, K.: Geodesy: a sensor for hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12642, 2022.

EGU22-12684 | Presentations | G3.1

Twenty years of volume transport from satellite gravimetry in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean 

Andreas Kvas, Katrin Bentel, Saniya Behzadpour, and Torsten Mayer-Gürr

With an observation period of almost twenty years and global data coverage, satellite gravimetry has become a crucial tool for monitoring the state of our planet in a changing climate. Gravimetry-derived mass change has seen numerous applications in different geoscientific disciplines and has fundamentally improved our understanding of the Earth system. One such application is the determination of meridional and zonal volume transport variability based on ocean bottom pressure (OBP) variations, which can provide key insights into climate-relevant ocean currents like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) or the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). However, the limited spatial resolution, signal leakage from other geophysical subsystems like the hydrosphere, cryosphere or solid Earth make satellite gravimetry-derived transport estimates difficult to interpret. In this study we investigate geostrophic volume transport variability based on observations of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) for selected cross sections in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. We focus on interannual transport variations in the deep ocean, where the more moderately sloping topography poses less stringent requirements on the spatial resolution of the OBP fields, and the lower temporal resolution reduces the impact of observation noise by providing longer averaging periods. Basis for the derived transport variations are high-resolution OBP fields determined in an ensemble Kalman filter approach. This allows us to also propagate the inherent observational noise to transport level and together with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) und hydrological model statistics quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the derived transport time series. We further contrast results for the Atlantic and Southern Ocean and show the different impact of the satellite observation geometry on meridional and zonal transport estimates.

How to cite: Kvas, A., Bentel, K., Behzadpour, S., and Mayer-Gürr, T.: Twenty years of volume transport from satellite gravimetry in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12684, 2022.

EGU22-753 | Presentations | CR2.9

3D sequential data assimilation in Elmer/Ice with Stokes 

Samuel Cook and Fabien Gillet-Chaulet

Providing suitable initial states is a long-standing problem in numerical modelling of glaciers and ice sheets, as well as in other areas of the geosciences, due to the frequent lack of observations. This is particularly acute in glaciology, where important parameters such as the underlying bed may be only very sparsely observed or even completely unobserved. Glaciological models also often require lengthy relaxation periods to dissipate incompatibilities between input datasets gathered over different timeframes, which may lead to the modelled initial state diverging significantly from the real state of the glacier, with consequent effects on the accuracy of the simulation. Sequential data assimilation using an ensemble offers one possibility for resolving both these issues: by running the model over a period for which various observational datasets are available and loading observations into the model at the time they were gathered, the model state can be brought into good agreement with the real glacier state at the end of the observational window. The mean values of the ensemble for unknown parameters, such as the bed, then also represent best guesses for the true parameter values. This assimilated model state can then be used to initialise prognostic runs without introducing model artefacts or a distorted picture of the actual glacier.

In this study, we present a framework for conducting sequential data assimilation and retrieving the bed of a glacier in a 3D setting of the open-source, finite-element glacier flow model, Elmer/Ice, and solving the Stokes equations rather than using the shallow shelf approximation. Assimilation is undertaken using the open-source PDAF library developed at the Alfred Wegener Institute. We demonstrate that the set-up allows us to accurately retrieve the bed of a synthetic glacier and present our plans to extend it to a real-world example.

How to cite: Cook, S. and Gillet-Chaulet, F.: 3D sequential data assimilation in Elmer/Ice with Stokes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-753, 2022.

EGU22-896 | Presentations | CR2.9

Uncertainty quantification for melt rate parameters in ice shelves using simulation-based inference 

Guy Moss, Vjeran Višnjević, Cornelius Schröder, Jakob Macke, and Reinhard Drews

Mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet is dominated by the integrity of the ice shelves that buttress it. The evolution and stability of ice shelves is dependent on a variety of parameters that cannot be directly observed, such as basal melt and ice rheology. Constraining these parameters is of great importance in making predictions of the future changes in ice shelves that have a quantifiable uncertainty. This inference task is difficult in practice as the number of unknown parameters is large, observations are often sparse, and the computational cost of ice flow models is high.

We aim to develop a framework for inferring joint distributions of mass balance and rheological parameters of ice shelves from observations such as ice geometry, surface velocities, and radar isochrones. Here, we begin by inferring a posterior distribution over basal melt parameters in along-flow sections of synthetic and real world ice shelves (Roi Baudouin). We use the technique of simulation-based inference (SBI), a machine learning framework for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is intractable. The inference procedure relies on the availability of a simulator to model the dynamics of the ice shelves. For this we use the Shallow Shelf Approximation (SSA) implemented in the Python library Icepack.  First, we show that by combining these two tools we can recover the underlying parameters of synthetic 2D data with meaningful uncertainty estimates. In a second step, we apply our method to real observations and get estimates for the basal melt rates which are coherent with the data when running the forward model over a centennial timescale.



How to cite: Moss, G., Višnjević, V., Schröder, C., Macke, J., and Drews, R.: Uncertainty quantification for melt rate parameters in ice shelves using simulation-based inference, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-896, 2022.

EGU22-2061 | Presentations | CR2.9

Assimilation of CryoSat-2 radar Freeboard data in a global ocean-sea ice modelling system. 

Aliette Chenal, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Florent Garnier, Parent Laurent, and Garric Gilles

Sea ice is a key element in our climate system, and it is very sensitive to the current observed climate change. Sea ice volume is a sensitive indicator of the health of Arctic although very challenging to estimate precisely since it is a combination of sea ice area and sea ice thickness. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by as much as 75% at the end of the summer season if compared with the conditions 40 years ago. The ongoing decline of Arctic sea ice exposes the ocean to anomalous surface heat and freshwater fluxes that can have potential implication for the Arctic region and beyond, for the general oceanic circulation itself.

For more than a decade, Mercator Ocean International develops and produces Global Ocean Reanalysis with a 1/4° resolution system. Based on the NEMO modelling platform, observations are assimilated by a reduced-order Kalman filter. In-situ CORA database, altimetric data, sea surface temperature, and sea ice concentration are jointly assimilated to constrain the ocean and sea ice model.

In previous reanalysis, long-term sea ice volume drift has been observed in the Arctic. To obtain a better constraint on the sea ice thickness, Cryosat-2 radar Freeboard data are assimilated jointly with the sea ice concentration in a multidata/multivariate sea ice analysis. The coupled ocean and ice assimilation system runs on a 7-day cycle, using IAU (Incremental Analysis Update) and a 4D increment. The “white ocean” is modelled with the multi-categories LIM3.6 sea ice numerical model. The aim of this study is to initiate the development of the future operational multi-variate and multi-data sea ice analysis system with freeboard radar assimilation.

After describing this global sea ice reanalysis system, we present results on the abilities of this configuration to reproduce sea ice extent and volume interannual variability in both hemispheres. Comparisons between experiments with and without assimilation show that the joint assimilation of CryoSat-2 radar freeboard and sea ice concentration reduces most of model biases of sea ice thickness, e.g., in the north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and in the Beaufort Sea in the Arctic. Moreover, radar freeboard assimilation does not hinder the good results in simulating sea ice extent previously obtained with the assimilation of only sea ice concentration. Validation with non-assimilated satellite data and in-situ data supports these findings. Lastly, snow depth significantly influences the Freeboard measurement: this study also reveals the importance of including snow information on freeboard retrieval and on the ice volume assimilation methodology.

These experiments take place in a context of increasing interest in polar regions and prepare the launch of Copernicus Sentinel expansion satellite missions.

How to cite: Chenal, A., Testut, C.-E., Garnier, F., Laurent, P., and Gilles, G.: Assimilation of CryoSat-2 radar Freeboard data in a global ocean-sea ice modelling system., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2061, 2022.

EGU22-2535 | Presentations | CR2.9

Quantifying Holocene Accumulation Rates from Ice-Core Dated Internal Layers from Ice-Penetrating Radar Data over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet 

Julien Bodart, Robert Bingham, Duncan Young, Donald Blankenship, and David Vaughan

Modelling the past and future evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) to climate and ocean forcing is challenged by the availability and quality of observed palaeo boundary conditions. Aside from point-based geochronological measurements, the only available proxy to query past ice-sheet processes on large spatial scales is Internal Reflecting Horizons (IRHs) as sounded by ice-penetrating radar. When isochronal, IRHs can be used to determine palaeo-accumulation rates and patterns, as previously demonstrated using shallow, centennially dated layers. Whilst similar efforts using deeper IRHs have previously been conducted over the East Antarctic Plateau where ice-flow is slow and ice thickness has been stable through time, much less is known of millennial-scale accumulation rates over the West Antarctic plateau due to challenging ice dynamical conditions in the downstream section of the ice sheet. Using deep and spatially extensive ice-core dated IRHs over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers and a local layer approximation model, we quantify Holocene accumulation rates over the slow-flowing parts of these sensitive catchments. The results from the one-dimensional model are also compared with modern accumulation rates from observational and modelled datasets to investigate changes in accumulation rates and patterns between the Holocene and the present. The outcome of this work is that together with present and centennial-scale accumulation rates, our results can help determine whether a trend in accumulation rates exists between the Holocene and the present and thus test to what extent these glaciers are controlled by ice dynamics rather than changes in accumulation rates.

How to cite: Bodart, J., Bingham, R., Young, D., Blankenship, D., and Vaughan, D.: Quantifying Holocene Accumulation Rates from Ice-Core Dated Internal Layers from Ice-Penetrating Radar Data over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2535, 2022.

EGU22-3743 | Presentations | CR2.9

Numerical modelling of ice stream fabrics: Implications for recrystallization processes and basal slip conditions 

Daniel Richards, Sam Pegler, and Sandra Piazolo

Accurately predicting ice crystal fabrics is key to understanding the processes and deformation in ice-sheets. Here we use SpecCAF, a continuum fabric evolution model validated against laboratory experiments, to predict the fabric evolution with an active ice stream. This is done by predicting the fabrics at the East Greenland Ice core Project (EGRIP) site. We do this using satellite data and inferred particle paths, combined with the shallow ice approximation (with basal slip) to infer a leading order approximation for the deformation through the ice sheet. We find that SpecCAF is able to predict the patterns observed at EGRIP - a girdle/horizontal maxima fabric perpendicular to the flow direction. By reducing the rate of rotational recrystallization in the model we are also able to predict the fabric strength at EGRIP. This suggests the effect of rotational recrystallization on the fabric may be primarily strain-rate/stress dependent. These results show SpecCAF can be applied to real-world conditions and provide insights into the deformation and basal-conditions of the ice sheet. As the model only considers deformation and recrystallization through dislocation creep, the results imply that - for the ice stream modelled - no other process is significantly influencing both the produced ice fabric and the deformation. We find that the model gives best results for full slip at the base of the ice sheet, implying that the level of sliding at the base of the ice sheet in the North Greenland Ice stream may be very high. The methodology used here can be extended to other ice core locations in Greenland and Antarctica.

How to cite: Richards, D., Pegler, S., and Piazolo, S.: Numerical modelling of ice stream fabrics: Implications for recrystallization processes and basal slip conditions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3743, 2022.

EGU22-4027 | Presentations | CR2.9

Basal Properties of the Filchner-Ronne Sector of Antarctica from Inverse Modeling and Comparison with Ice-Penetrating Radar Data 

Michael Wolovick, Lea-Sophie Höyns, Thomas Kleiner, Niklas Nickel, Veit Helm, and Angelika Humbert

Lubrication by subglacial water or saturated subglacial sediments is crucial to controlling the movement of fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams.  However, the subglacial environment is difficult to observe directly.  Here, we combine inverse modeling with ice-penetrating radar observations to characterize the ice sheet bed in the Filchner-Ronne sector of Antarctica, with a specific focus on the Recovery Glacier catchment.  First, we use the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM; Larour et al., 2012) to assimilate satellite observations of ice sheet surface velocity (Mouginot et al., 2019) in order to solve for basal drag and ice rheology across the Filchner-Ronne sector of Antarctica.  Next, we compare these results with ice-penetrating radar observations sensitive to the presence of ponded water at the ice sheet base (Humbert et al., 2018; Langley et al., 2011), along with remotely sensed observations of active lakes (Smith et al., 2009) and putative large subglacial lakes inferred from the ice sheet surface slope (Bell et al., 2007).  We find that the main fast-flowing region of Recovery Glacier is mostly low-drag, with the exception of localized sticky spots and bands.  The boundary between rugged subglacial highlands and a deep subglacial basin near the onset of the ice stream is associated with a sharp reduction in basal drag, although surface velocity changes smoothly rather than abruptly across this transition.  An upstream shear margin, visible in satellite radar images of the ice surface, is associated with low basal drag.  The putative large lakes have low drag but are not strongly distinguished from their surroundings, and radar evidence for ponded subglacial water within them is weak.  The active lakes identified from satellite altimetry are similarly situated in areas of low basal drag, but have limited radar evidence for ponded subglacial water.  An L-curve analysis indicates that our inverse model results are robust against changes in regularization, yet the radar-identified lake candidates do not have a clear relationship with low-drag areas in the fast-flowing ice stream.  We conclude that the deep-bedded regions of Recovery Glacier are underlain by saturated subglacial sediments, but classic ponded subglacial lakes are much more rare.  Isolated sticky spots and bands within the ice stream are either due to protrusions of bedrock out of the sediments or to localized areas of frozen and/or compacted sediments.

How to cite: Wolovick, M., Höyns, L.-S., Kleiner, T., Nickel, N., Helm, V., and Humbert, A.: Basal Properties of the Filchner-Ronne Sector of Antarctica from Inverse Modeling and Comparison with Ice-Penetrating Radar Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4027, 2022.

EGU22-5113 | Presentations | CR2.9

Estimating large scale dynamic mountain glacier states with numerical modelling and data assimilation 

Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion, and Philipp Gregor

Ongoing global glacier retreat leads to sea-level rise and changes in regional freshwater availability. For an adequate adaptation to these changes, knowledge about the ice volume and the current dynamic state of glaciers is crucial. At regional to global scales, sparse observations made the dynamic state of glaciers very difficult to assess. Thanks to recent advances in global geodetic mass-balance and velocity assessments, new ways to initialize numerical models and ice thickness estimation emerge. In this contribution, we present the COst Minimization Bed INvErsion model (COMBINE), which aims to be a cheap, flexible global data assimilation and inversion method. COMBINE uses an existing numerical model of glacier evolution (the Open Global Glacier Model, OGGM) rewritten in the machine learning framework PyTorch. This makes the model fully differentiable and allows to iteratively minimize a cost function penalizing mismatch to observations. Thanks to the flexible nature of automatic differentiation, various observational sources distributed in time can be considered (e.g. surface elevation and area changes, ice velocities). No assumption about the dynamic glacier state is needed, releasing the equilibrium assumption often required for large scale ice volume computations. In this contribution, we will demonstrate the capabilities of COMBINE in several idealized and real-world applications, and discuss its added value and upcoming challenges for operational application.

How to cite: Schmitt, P., Maussion, F., and Gregor, P.: Estimating large scale dynamic mountain glacier states with numerical modelling and data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5113, 2022.

EGU22-5425 | Presentations | CR2.9

Modeling the Greenland englacial stratigraphy 

Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, and Alexios Theofilopoulos

Radar reflections from the interior of the Greenland ice sheet contain a comprehensive archive of past accumulation rates, ice dynamics, and basal melting. Combining these data with dynamic ice sheet models may greatly aid model calibration, improve past and future sea level estimates, and enable insights into past ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone.

In this study, we present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates the Greenland englacial stratigraphy. Individual layers of accumulation are represented on a grid whose vertical axis is time so that they do not exchange mass with each other as the flow of ice deforms them. This isochronal advection scheme does not influence the ice dynamics and only requires modest input data from a host thermomechanical ice sheet model.

Using an ensemble of simulations, we show that direct comparison with the dated radiostratigraphy data yields notably more accurate results than calibrating simulations based on total ice thickness. We show that the isochronal scheme produces a more reliable simulation of the englacial age profile than Eulerian age tracers. Lastly, we outline how the isochronal model can be linearized as a foundation for inverse modeling and data assimilation.

How to cite: Born, A., Robinson, A., and Theofilopoulos, A.: Modeling the Greenland englacial stratigraphy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5425, 2022.

EGU22-8605 | Presentations | CR2.9

Coupling modelling and satellite observations to constrain subglacial melt rates and hydrology 

Martin Wearing, Daniel Goldberg, Christine Dow, Anna Hogg, and Noel Gourmelen

Meltwater forms at the base of the Antarctic Ice Sheet due to geothermal heat flux (GHF) and basal frictional dissipation. Despite the relatively small volume, this meltwater has a profound effect on ice-sheet stability, controlling the dynamics of the ice sheet and the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. However, observations of subglacial melting and hydrology in Antarctica are limited. Here we use numerical modelling to assess subglacial melt rates and hydrology beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our case study, focused on the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, shows that total subglacial melting in the catchment is 6.5 Gt yr-1, over 50% larger than previous estimates. Uncertainty in estimates of GHF leads to a variation in total melt of ±7%. The meltwater provides an extra 8% flux of freshwater to the ocean in addition to contributions from iceberg calving and melting of the ice shelf. GHF and basal dissipation contribute equally to the total melt rate, but basal dissipation is an order of magnitude larger beneath ice streams. Remote-sensing observations, from CryoSat-2, indicating active subglacial lakes and ice-shelf basal melting constrain subglacial hydrology modelling. We observe a network of subglacial channels that link subglacial lakes and trigger isolated areas of sub-ice-shelf melting close to the grounding line. Building upon this Amery case study, we expand our analysis to quantify subglacial melt rates and hydrology beneath the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet.

How to cite: Wearing, M., Goldberg, D., Dow, C., Hogg, A., and Gourmelen, N.: Coupling modelling and satellite observations to constrain subglacial melt rates and hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8605, 2022.

EGU22-8938 | Presentations | CR2.9

Constraining Soil Freezing Models using Observed Soil Freezing Characteristic Curves 

Élise Devoie, Stephan Gruber, and Jeffrey McKenzie

Objective: Estimate Soil Freezing Characteristic Curves (SFCCs) and uncertainty bounds based on a compilation of existing measured SFCCs.

Key Findings

  • Uncertainty in measured SFCCs is estimated based on measurement technique, water content, and soil disturbance
  • An open-source tool for estimating and constraining SFCCs is developed for use in parameterizing freeze/thaw models

Abstract

Cold-regions landscapes are undergoing rapid change due to a warming climate. This change is impacting many elements of the landscape and is often controlled by soil freeze/thaw processes. Soil freeze/thaw is governed by the Soil Freezing Characteristic Curve (SFCC) that relates the soil temperature to its unfrozen water content. This relation is needed in all physically based numerical models including soil freeze/thaw processes. A repository of all collected SFCC data and an R package for accessing and processing this data was presented in "A Repository of 100+ Years of Measured Soil Freezing Characteristic Curves".

This rich SFCC dataset is synthesized with a focus on potential sources of error due to the combination of measurement technique, data interpretation, and physical freeze-thaw process in a specific soil. Particular attention is given to combining sources of error and working with datasets given incomplete and missing metadata. A tool is developed to extract an SFCC for a soil with specified properties alongside its uncertainty bounds. This tool is intended for use in freeze/thaw models to improve freeze/thaw estimates, and better represent the ice and liquid water content of freezing soils. As phase change accounts for a vast majority of the energy budget in freezing soils, accurately representing the process is essential for realistic predictions. In addition, SFCC type curves are provided for the common sand, silt, clay, and organic soil textures when additional data is unavailable to define the SFCC more precisely.

How to cite: Devoie, É., Gruber, S., and McKenzie, J.: Constraining Soil Freezing Models using Observed Soil Freezing Characteristic Curves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8938, 2022.

EGU22-9143 | Presentations | CR2.9

Assessing the continuity of englacial layers across the Lambert Glacier catchment. 

Rebecca Sanderson, Neil Ross, Louise Callard, Kate Winter, Felipe Napoleoni, Robert Bingham, and Tom Jordan

The analysis of englacial layers using ice penetrating radar enables the characterisation and reconstruction of current and past ice sheet flow. To date, little research has been undertaken on the ice flow and englacial stratigraphy of the upper catchment of the Lambert Glacier. The Lambert Glacier catchment is one of the largest in East Antarctica, discharging ~16% of East Antarctica’s ice. Quantitative analysis of the continuity of englacial stratigraphy and ice flow has the potential to provide insight into the present-day and past flow regimes of the upper catchment of Lambert Glacier. Radar data from the British Antarctic Survey Antarctica’s Gamburtsev Province Project North (AGAP-N) aerogeophysical survey was analysed using the Internal Layer Continuity Index (ILCI). This approach identified, and characterised, a range of englacial structures and stratigraphy, including buckled layers in areas of increased ice velocity (>20ma-1) and continuous layering across subglacial highlands with low ice velocity adjacent to the central Lambert Glacier trunk. Overall, the analysis is consistent with the present-day ice-flow velocity field and long-term stability of ice flow across the Lambert catchment. However, disrupted layer geometry at the onset of the Lambert Glacier suggests a past shift in the position of the onset of ice flow. These results have implications for the future evolution of this major ice flow catchment, and East Antarctica, under a changing climate. The ILCI method represents a valuable tool for rapidly characterising englacial stratigraphy, and the study demonstrates the transferability of the method across Antarctica. The use of quantitative tools such as ILCI for the analysis of large radar datasets will be critical for projects such as AntArchitecture (https://www.scar.org/science/antarchitecture/home/) which aims to investigate the long-term stability of the Antarctic ice sheets directly from the internal architecture of the ice sheet.

How to cite: Sanderson, R., Ross, N., Callard, L., Winter, K., Napoleoni, F., Bingham, R., and Jordan, T.: Assessing the continuity of englacial layers across the Lambert Glacier catchment., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9143, 2022.

EGU22-9262 | Presentations | CR2.9

Assimilating Cyrosat2 freeboard into a coupled ice-ocean model  

Imke Sievers, Lars Stenseng, and Till Rasmussen
This presentation introduces a method to assimilate freeboard from radar satellite observations.
Many studies have shown that the skill and memory of sea ice models using sea ice thickness as initial condition improve compered to model runs only initializing sea ice concentration. The only Arctic wide sea ice thickness data which could be used for initialization is coming from satellite observations. Since sea ice can’t directly be measured from space freeboard data is used to derive sea ice thickness. Freeboard is converted under assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium to sea ice thickness. For this conversion snow thickness is needed. Due to a lack of Arctic wide snow cover observations most products use a snow climatology or a modification of one. This has proofed to introduce errors. To avoid the errors introduced by this method the presented work aims to assimilate freeboard directly. This presentation will introduce the method and show first results. The assimilation period overlaps with ICESat2 mission. We present a comparison between the presented freeboard assimilation and ICESat2 sea ice thickness products of a first winter season.

How to cite: Sievers, I., Stenseng, L., and Rasmussen, T.: Assimilating Cyrosat2 freeboard into a coupled ice-ocean model , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9262, 2022.

EGU22-9886 | Presentations | CR2.9

Automated Tracking of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Norway 

Jogscha Abderhalden and Irina Rogozhina

No continuously updated glacier and glacial lake inventories exist for Norway. Previous inventories have been developed for the time periods of 1947-1985, 1988-1997 and 1999-2006 for glaciers and 1988-1997, 1999-2006, 2014 and 2018 for glacial lakes, by manual digitization, and semi-automated mapping. However, these methods are both time consuming and do not allow for an analysis of glacial lake behaviour on shorter timescales or on a seasonal basis. Therefore, one aim of this study is to present consistent inventories for glaciers and glacial lakes in Norway using semi-automated mapping and machine learning techniques applied on satellite imagery of different spatial and temporal resolution (Landsat 30m, 16 days, and Sentinel 10m, 5 days). An automated method that allows frequent monitoring of glacier variables can provide essential knowledge for the understanding of glacial lake dynamics in a changing climate.

In addition to glacial lake inventories, smaller ice caps with active glacial lakes are investigated more closely, aiming at following the development of glacial lakes throughout seasons. Here we are also analyzing the suitability of PlanetScope imagery compared to the Sentinel and Landsat imagery to detect the known glacial lake outburst flood events and identify currently unrecognized hazard-prone glacial lakes. Since the field-based investigations of glacial lake changes (especially of the ice-dammed lakes) are sparse in Norway, developing methods for remote-sensed, automated monitoring of glacial lake changes and glacial lake outburst floods is essential in order to develop early warning systems, detect potentially hazardous lakes and prevent human losses and damages to infrastructure and local businesses.

How to cite: Abderhalden, J. and Rogozhina, I.: Automated Tracking of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Norway, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9886, 2022.

EGU22-10509 | Presentations | CR2.9

A probabilistic analysis of permafrost temperature trends with ensemble modeling of heat transfer 

Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike

Over the past few decades, polar research teams around the world have deployed long-term measurement sites to monitor changes in permafrost environments. Many of these sites include borehole sensor arrays which provide measurements of ground temperature as deep as 50 meters or more below the surface. Recent studies have attempted to leverage these borehole data from the Global Terrestrial Network of Permafrost to quantify changes in permafrost temperatures at a global scale. However, temperature measurements provide an incomplete picture of the Earth's subsurface thermal regime. It is well known that regions with warmer permafrost, i.e. where mean annual ground temperatures are close to zero, often show little to no long-term change in ground temperature due to the latent heat effect. Thus, regions where the least warming is observed  may also be the most vulnerable to rapid permafrost thaw. Since direct measurements of soil moisture in the permafrost layer are not widely available, thermal modeling of the subsurface plays a crucial role in understanding how permafrost responds to changes in the local energy balance. In this work, we explore a new probabilistic method to link observed annual temperatures in boreholes to permafrost thaw via Bayesian parameter estimation and Monte Carlo simulation with a transient heat model. We apply our approach to several sites across the Arctic and demonstrate the impact of local landscape variability on the relationship between long term changes in temperature and latent heat.

How to cite: Groenke, B., Langer, M., Gallego, G., and Boike, J.: A probabilistic analysis of permafrost temperature trends with ensemble modeling of heat transfer, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10509, 2022.

EGU22-11310 | Presentations | CR2.9

Layer geometry as a constraint on the physics of sliding onset 

Elisa Mantelli, Marnie Bryant, Helene Seroussi, Ludovic Raess, Davide Castelletti, Dustin Schroeder, Jenny Suckale, and Martin Siegert

Transitions from basal no slip to basal sliding are a common feature of ice sheets, yet one that has remained difficult to observe. In this study we leverage recent advances in the processing of radar sounding data to study these transitions through their signature in englacial layers. Englacial layers encode information about strain and velocity, and the relation between their geometry and the onset of basal sliding has been demonstrated in ice flow models (the so-called "Weertman effect"). Here we leverage this relation to test the long-standing hypothesis that sliding onset takes the form of an abrupt no slip/sliding transition. By comparing the modeled signature of an abrupt sliding onset in englacial layer slopes against slope observations from the onset region of a West Antarctic ice stream (Institute Ice Stream), we conclude that observed layer geometry does not support an abrupt no slip/sliding transition. Our findings instead suggest a much smoother sliding onset, as would be consistent with temperature-dependent friction between ice and bed. Direct measurements of basal temperature at the catchment scale would allow us to confirm this hypothesis.

How to cite: Mantelli, E., Bryant, M., Seroussi, H., Raess, L., Castelletti, D., Schroeder, D., Suckale, J., and Siegert, M.: Layer geometry as a constraint on the physics of sliding onset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11310, 2022.

EGU22-13501 | Presentations | CR2.9

Investigating basal thaw as a driver of mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet 

Eliza Dawson, Dustin Schroeder, Winni Chu, Elisa Mantelli, and Hélène Seroussi

Contemporary mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet primarily originates from the discharge of
marine-terminating glaciers and ice streams. The rate of mass loss is influenced by warming ocean
and atmospheric conditions, which lead to subsequent thinning or disintegration of ice shelves and
increased outflow of upstream grounded ice. It is currently unclear how the basal thermal state of
grounded ice could evolve in the future - for example as a result of accelerated ice flow or changes
in the ice sheet geometry - but a change in the basal thermal state could impact rates of mass loss
from Antarctica. Here, we use a combination of numerical simulations and ice-penetrating radar
analysis to investigate the influence of basal thawing on 100yr simulations of the Antarctic ice
sheet’s evolution. Using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, we find that thawing patches
of frozen bed near the ice sheet margin could drive mass loss extending into the continental
interior, with the highest rates of loss coming from the George V - Adélie - Wilkes Land coast and
the Enderby - Kemp Land regions of East Antarctica. This suggests that the thawing of localized
frozen bed patches is sufficient to cause these East Antarctic regions to transition to an unstable
mass loss regime. We constrain model estimates of the basal thermal state using ice-penetrating
radar surveys and analyze radar characteristics including bed reflectivity and attenuation. In
combination, our work identifies critical regions of Antarctica where the ice-bed interface could
be close to thawing and where basal thaw could most impact mass loss.

How to cite: Dawson, E., Schroeder, D., Chu, W., Mantelli, E., and Seroussi, H.: Investigating basal thaw as a driver of mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13501, 2022.

EGU22-649 | Presentations | CR1.4

Quantifying the spatial representativeness of ice core surface mass balance records using ground-penetrating radar data in Antarctica 

Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Sarah Wauthy, Brooke Medley, Thore Kausch, Jean-Louis Tison, Brice Van Liefferinge, Jan T.M. Lenaerts, and Frank Pattyn

The future contributions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise will be highly dependent on the evolution of its surface mass balance (SMB), which can offset increased ice discharge at the grounding line. In-situ SMB constraints over annual to multi-decadal timescales come mostly from firn and ice cores. However, although they have a high temporal resolution, ice cores are local measurements of SMB with a surface footprint on the order of cm2. Post depositional processes (e.g. wind driven redistribution) can change the initial snowfall record locally and therefore affect our interpretation of the SMB signal recovered. On the other hand, regional climate models have a high temporal resolution but may miss some of the processes at work as a result of their large spatial footprint, on the order of km2. Comparisons of ice core and model SMB records often show large discrepancies in terms of trends and variability.

We investigate the representativeness of a single shallow core record of SMB of the area surrounding it. For this, we use ice-penetrating radar data, co-located with the ice core records examined, to obtain a multi-annual to decadal radar-derived SMB record. We then compare the radar-derived SMB records to the ice core SMB records to determine the surface area that the ice core record is representative of, in terms of mean SMB as well as SMB temporal variability on historical timescales. We examine ice core records situated over the coastal ice rises of East Antarctica, where SMB is high and spatially heterogeneous, as well as over the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, where SMB is more uniform spatially. By comparing these two contrasting regions in terms of SMB, we will determine whether a general rule of thumb can be obtained to determine the spatial representativeness of an ice core SMB record.

How to cite: Cavitte, M. G. P., Goosse, H., Wauthy, S., Medley, B., Kausch, T., Tison, J.-L., Van Liefferinge, B., Lenaerts, J. T. M., and Pattyn, F.: Quantifying the spatial representativeness of ice core surface mass balance records using ground-penetrating radar data in Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-649, 2022.

EGU22-1281 | Presentations | CR1.4 | Highlight

Response of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin Ice Sheet to Southern Ocean Warming During Late Pleistocene Interglacials 

Ilaria Crotti, Aurélien Quiquet, Amaelle Landais, Barbara Stenni, Massimo Frezzotti, David Wilson, Mirko Severi, Robert Mulvaney, Frank Wilhelms, and Carlo Barbante

The growth and decay of marine ice sheets act as important controls on regional and global climate and sea level. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet appears to have undergone thinning and ice discharge events during recent decades, but its past dynamics are still under debate. The aim of our study is to investigate ice margin retreat of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet during late Pleistocene interglacials with the help of new high-resolution records from the TALDICE ice core. Here we present a multiproxy approach associated with modelling sensitivity experiments.

The novel high-resolution δ18O signal reveals that interglacial periods MIS 7.5 and 9.3 are characterized by a unique double-peak feature, previously observed for MIS 5.5 (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2011), that is not seen in other Antarctic ice cores. A comparison with our GRISLI modelling results indicates that the Talos Dome site has probably undergone elevation variations of 100-400 m during past interglacials, with a major ice thickness variation during MIS 9.3, likely connected to a relevant margin retreat of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet. To validate this elevation change hypothesis, the modelling outputs are compared to the ice-rafted debris record (IBRD) and the neodymium isotope signal from the U1361A sediment core (Wilson et al., 2018), which show that during MIS 5.5 and especially MIS 9.3, the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet has been subjected to ice discharge events.

Overall, our results indicate that the interglacial double-peak δ18O signal could reflect decreases in Talos Dome site elevation during the late stages of interglacials due to Wilkes Subglacial Basin retreat events. These changes coincided with warmer Southern Ocean temperatures and elevated global mean sea level, confirming the sensitivity of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to ocean warming and its potential role in sea-level change.

How to cite: Crotti, I., Quiquet, A., Landais, A., Stenni, B., Frezzotti, M., Wilson, D., Severi, M., Mulvaney, R., Wilhelms, F., and Barbante, C.: Response of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin Ice Sheet to Southern Ocean Warming During Late Pleistocene Interglacials, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1281, 2022.

EGU22-1667 | Presentations | CR1.4

A Path to Quantitative Interpretation of Antarctic Sediment Provenance Records 

Jim Marschalek, Edward Gasson, Tina van de Flierdt, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, and Marin Siegert

Tracing the provenance of Antarctic sediments yields unique insights into the form and flow of past ice sheets. However, sediment provenance studies are typically limited to qualitative interpretations by uncertainties regarding subglacial geology, glacial erosion, and transport of sediment both subglacially and beyond the ice sheet margin. Here, we forward model marine geochemical sediment provenance data, in particular neodymium isotope ratios. Numerical ice-sheet modelling predicts the spatial pattern of subglacial erosion rates for a given ice sheet configuration, then ice flow paths are traced to the ice sheet margin. For the modern ice sheet, simple approximations of glacimarine sediment transport processes produce a good agreement with Holocene surface sediments in many areas of glaciological interest. Calibrating our model to the modern setting permits application of the approach to past ice sheet configurations, which show that large changes to sediment provenance over time can be reconstructed around the West Antarctic margin. This first step towards greater integration of Antarctic sediment provenance data with numerical modelling offers the potential for advances in both fields.

How to cite: Marschalek, J., Gasson, E., van de Flierdt, T., Hillenbrand, C.-D., and Siegert, M.: A Path to Quantitative Interpretation of Antarctic Sediment Provenance Records, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1667, 2022.

EGU22-2310 | Presentations | CR1.4

Exploring the sensitivity of modelled sea-level rise projections from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to model parameters 

Suzanne Bevan, Stephen Cornford, Adrian Luckman, Anna Hogg, Inés Otosaka, and Trystan Surawy-Stepney

Recent sea-level rise from the Antarctic icesheet has been dominated by contributions from Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE). Much of the ASE ice is grounded below sea level and is therefore likely to be highly sensitive to ongoing oceanic and atmospheric warming.

Confidence in model-based predictions of the future contributions of the ASE region to sea-level rise requires an understanding of the sensitivity of the predictions to input data, such as bedrock topography, and to chosen parameters within, for example, sliding laws.

We will present results from using the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement ice-sheet model to explore the sensitivity of modelled ASE 2050 grounded ice loss. We test a regularized Coulomb friction sliding law, varying the regularization parameter, and we test the sensitivity to bedrock elevation by adding gaussian noise of different wavelengths to MEaSUREs BedMachine Version 2 elevations. However, within our experiments, we find the greatest sensitivity in modelled 2050 sea-level contributions is to the imposed ice-shelf thinning or damage rates, which we vary between spatially uniform values of 0 to 15 m/year.

We will also present a comparison of the modelled annual evolution of surface velocity and surface elevation change with observations. Observed surface velocities are based on Sentinel 1 feature tracking, and surface elevation change rates are derived from satellite radar altimetry.

How to cite: Bevan, S., Cornford, S., Luckman, A., Hogg, A., Otosaka, I., and Surawy-Stepney, T.: Exploring the sensitivity of modelled sea-level rise projections from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to model parameters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2310, 2022.

EGU22-4161 | Presentations | CR1.4

Dynamics of East Antarctic glaciers from 1937-2017 analyzed using historical aerial expedition images 

Mads Dømgaard, Flora Huiban, Anders Schomacker, Jeremie Mouginot, and Anders Bjørk

Since the beginning of the 20th century, various countries have carried out expeditions to Antarctica with the aim of claiming territory, reconnaissance as well as capturing aerial images for topographic mapping. Many of these image inventories has since then been forgotten and never used for scientific purposes. We have gained access to a unique dataset of aerial images captured in 1936-1937 as a part of the Norwegian Thorshavn IV expedition surveying and mapping large parts of the East Antarctic coastline. The images have a stereo overlap of approximate 60% and are digitized using a photogrammetry-grade scanner, enabling us to produce the earliest known digital elevation models and orthophotos of Antarctica.

Expanding the observational records of Antarctic glaciers are vital for better understanding and modelling how changes in climatic parameters affects the ice. Currently, we know very little about the behaviour of Antarctic glaciers prior to the 1990s, due to a lack of large-scale observations. Several studies has proven the effectiveness of using digitally-scanned historical aerial images in studying ice mass losses of the pre-satellite era, but very few such studies exist for Antarctica. In this study, we explore Norwegian and Australian historical aerial expedition images collected between 1937 and 1997 to extensively expand the records and provide the earliest regional-scale Antarctic glacier records. The images are processed using structure-from-motion photogrammetry, which enables us to construct accurate, high-resolution digital elevation models and orthophotos. By combining expedition images with modern satellite data, we are creating a unique time-series dataset to study the changes of multiple glaciers along the East Antarctic coastline in Mac Robertson and Kemp Land between 1937 and 2017.

How to cite: Dømgaard, M., Huiban, F., Schomacker, A., Mouginot, J., and Bjørk, A.: Dynamics of East Antarctic glaciers from 1937-2017 analyzed using historical aerial expedition images, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4161, 2022.

EGU22-4786 | Presentations | CR1.4

Simulating the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet including 3D GIA feedback during the Last Glacial Cycle 

Caroline van Calcar, Roderik van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal

Changes in ice load over time deform the Earth’s crust and mantle. This effect, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), induces vertical deformation of the bedrock of the Antarctic continent and impacts the grounding line position which is critical for the dynamical state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). GIA introduces a negative feedback and stabilizes the ice sheet evolution, hence GIA modelling is important for transient studies. Most ice dynamic models use a two-layer flat Earth approach with a laterally homogenous relaxation time or a layered Earth approach with a laterally homogenous viscosity (1D) to compute the bedrock deformation. However, viscosity of the Earth’s interior varies laterally (3D) and radially with several orders of magnitude across the Antarctic continent. Here we present a new coupled 3D GIA – ice dynamic model which can run over hundred thousands of years with a resolution of 500 years. The method is applied using various 1D and 3D rheologies. Results show that the present-day ice volume is 3 % lower when using a 1D viscosity of 1021 Pa·s than using a 3D viscosity. However, local differences in grounding line position maybe up to a hundred kilometres around the Ronne and the Ross Ice Shelfs, and ice thickness differences are up to a kilometre for present day conditions when comparing 1D rheologies and 3D rheologies. The difference between the use of various 3D rheologies is significantly smaller. These results underline and quantify the importance of including local GIA feedback effects in ice dynamic models when simulating the Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution over the Last Glacial Cycle.

How to cite: van Calcar, C., van de Wal, R., Blank, B., de Boer, B., and van der Wal, W.: Simulating the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet including 3D GIA feedback during the Last Glacial Cycle, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4786, 2022.

EGU22-5596 | Presentations | CR1.4

Contribution of tropical variability on Antarctic climate changes over the past centuries 

Quentin Dalaiden, Nerilie Abram, and Hugues Goosse

The future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), particularly the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), will strongly influence global sea-level rise during the 21st century and beyond. However, because of the sparse observational network in concert with the strong internal variability, our understanding of the long-term climate and ice sheet changes in the Antarctic is limited. Among all the processes involved in Antarctic climate variability and change, an increasing number of studies have pointed out the strong relationship between the climate in the tropics and Antarctic (also called tropical-Antarctic teleconnections), especially between the Pacific Ocean and the West Antarctic region. Most of those studies focus only on the past decades, but to fully understand the long-term Antarctic climate changes associated with tropical variability longer time-series are needed. This is achieved here by using annually-resolved paleoclimate records (ice core and coral records) that cover at least the last two centuries to study both the year-to-year and multi-decadal variability of tropical-Antarctic teleconnections. These records are incorporated into a data assimilation framework that optimally combines the paleoclimate records with the physics of the climate model. As data assimilation provides a climate reconstruction that is dynamically constrained – through the spatial covariance in the climate model – the contribution of tropical variability on Antarctic climate changes can be directly assessed. Different sensitivity tests are performed to isolate the contribution of each tropical basin. Additionally, the roles of multi-decadal and year-to-year variability are compared by averaging the annual paleoclimate records at a lower temporal resolution. This new method of combining the two time-scales is proposed in order to preserve the multi-decadal variability in the annual climate reconstruction.

How to cite: Dalaiden, Q., Abram, N., and Goosse, H.: Contribution of tropical variability on Antarctic climate changes over the past centuries, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5596, 2022.

EGU22-7213 | Presentations | CR1.4

Exploring the impact of different past- and present-day climatic forcings on Antarctic Ice sheet evolution 

Christian Wirths, Johannes Sutter, and Thomas Stocker

Simulations of past and future Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) evolution depend, besides the intrinsic model specific uncertainties, on the applied climatic forcing. To model the past, present and future Antarctic Ice Sheet, a large set of different forcings from global and regional climate models, is available. For a more complete understanding of the modeled ice sheet dynamics, it is therefore critical to understand the influence and the resulting model differences and uncertainties associated with climate forcing choices.  

In this study we examine the impact of different climatic forcings onto the equilibrium state of the AIS for past and present-day conditions. We apply past (LGM, LIG, mid-Pliocene warm period) and present-day climatic forcings from regional (RACMO2.3p2, MAR3.10, HIRHAM5 and COSMO-CLM) and global (PMIP4 ensemble) climate models onto the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM v.2.0). Further, we investigate the response of the total ice mass, its distribution and the grounding line dynamics of the modeled equilibrium ice sheet under varying ice sheet sensitivity parameterizations.  

With this analysis, we aim to gain a better understanding of AIS modelling uncertainties due to the applied climatic forcings and parameterizations, which will improve the assessment of modeled past and future ice-sheet evolution.  

How to cite: Wirths, C., Sutter, J., and Stocker, T.: Exploring the impact of different past- and present-day climatic forcings on Antarctic Ice sheet evolution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7213, 2022.

EGU22-7802 | Presentations | CR1.4

Reversibility experiments of present-day Antarctic grounding lines: the short-term perspective 

Emily A. Hill, Benoit Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gael Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra Langebroek

The stability of the grounding lines of Antarctica is a fundamental question in glaciology, because current grounding lines in some locations are at the edge of large marine basins, and have been hypothesized to potentially undergo irreversible retreat in response to climate change. This could have global consequences and raise sea levels by several metres. If the Antarctic grounding lines in their current configuration are close to being unstable, a small change in external forcing, e.g. a reduction in ice shelf buttressing resulting from an increase in ice shelf melt rates, would lead to continued retreat of the grounding line due to the marine ice sheet instability hypothesis, even after the melt perturbation is reverted. Alternatively, if the system state reverts to its previous value after the perturbation is removed, we can consider the current grounding line positions to be reversible. 

Here, we initialise the ice sheets models Úa and Elmer/Ice to closely replicate the current configuration of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, in particular, the current position of the grounding lines. Under control conditions, state fluxes and ice volume changes are forced to be in balance. Using these quasi-steady state ice sheet configurations, we apply a small amplitude perturbation in ice shelf melt rates by imposing an increase for 20 years in the far-field ocean temperature. After 20 years the melt rate perturbation is returned to zero, and model simulations are continued for a further 80-year recovery period. During this recovery period we examine the trend in ice flux and grounding line position, i.e. do they tend towards their previous values, or do they move further away from their initial state? Our results suggest that the global grounding line around Antarctica begins to reverse to its former state after the perturbation is removed. However, we find the reversibility and response times of grounding lines to a small perturbation in ice shelf buttressing varies between individual basins across the ice sheet.

This work is part of the TiPACCs project and complements an overview presentation on the reversibility of present-day Antarctic grounding lines (EGU22-5176) as well as a presentation exploring long-term reversibility experiments (EGU22-7885).

How to cite: Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Reese, R., Garbe, J., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R., Chekki, M., Chandler, D., and Langebroek, P.: Reversibility experiments of present-day Antarctic grounding lines: the short-term perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7802, 2022.

EGU22-7885 | Presentations | CR1.4

Reversibility experiments of present-day Antarctic grounding lines: the long-term perspective 

Ronja Reese, Benoit Urruty, Emily A. Hill, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gael Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra Langebroek

The stability of the grounding lines of Antarctica is a fundamental question in glaciology, because current grounding lines are in some locations at the edge of large marine basins, and have been hypothesized to potentially undergo irreversible retreat in response to climate change. This could have global consequences and raise sea levels by several metres. However, their long-term reversibility for the current ice sheet geometry has not yet been questioned, i.e., if the present-day climatology is kept constant, will the grounding lines remain close to their currently observed position or will they retreat substantially? 

Here we focus on the long-term evolution of Antarctic grounding lines over millennial time scales. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, an initial equilibrium state is created for historic climate conditions around 1850. Then the model is run forward until 2015 with atmospheric and oceanic changes from ISMIP6 to reflect recent trends in the ice sheet. After 2015, we keep the present-day climatology constant and let the ice sheet evolve towards a new steady state, which takes several thousand years. An ensemble over model parameters related to sliding and ocean forcing allows us to analyse the sensitivity of the grounding line evolution to model uncertainties. Since we start from a historic equilibrium state, we can use this approach to assess if the increase from historic to present-day climatology might push Antarctic grounding lines across a tipping point into a different basin of attraction that is characterised by a substantially retreated steady-state grounding line position. 

This work is part of the TiPACCs project and complements an overview presentation on the reversibility of present-day Antarctic grounding lines (EGU22-5176) as well as a presentation exploring the short-term reversibility experiments in more detail (EGU22-7802).

How to cite: Reese, R., Urruty, B., Hill, E. A., Garbe, J., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Winkelmann, R., Chekki, M., Chandler, D., and Langebroek, P.: Reversibility experiments of present-day Antarctic grounding lines: the long-term perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7885, 2022.

EGU22-8215 | Presentations | CR1.4

Ocean temperature forcings in glacial-interglacial Antarctic Ice Sheet simulations 

David Chandler, Petra Langebroek, Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Ice shelf basal melt accounts for about half the present-day ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and is important for both ice sheet mass balance and as a source of fresh water into the Southern Ocean. In Antarctic Ice Sheet simulations over Quaternary glacial cycle time scales, neither basal melt rate nor its principal oceanographic controls (temperature and salinity of waters adjacent to ice shelves) can be reconstructed directly from proxy records. Given the strong ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions, the ideal solution is a coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model, but computational demands currently limit this approach to short time scales. Stand-alone ice sheet simulations can cover much longer time scales at reasonable resolution, but require an alternative estimate of ocean temperatures. Here we compare the strengths and weaknesses of three options: (i) proxy reconstructions of North Atlantic and circumpolar deep water temperatures, from marine sediment cores north of 43°S; (ii) an ice sheet air temperature reconstruction, damped and lagged by a linear response function; and (iii) a glacial index method which interpolates between CMIP6 lig127k (interglacial) and lgm (glacial) end-member ocean states. We find considerable differences in the rates and magnitudes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's contribution to past sea-level changes when applying the three methods in simulations over the last two glacial cycles, particularly during the last interglacial and Holocene. Therefore, the ocean temperature forcing remains as an important but poorly-constrained modelling choice, whether investigating past warm climates or using long simulations as a spin-up for future projections. 

How to cite: Chandler, D., Langebroek, P., Reese, R., Albrecht, T., and Winkelmann, R.: Ocean temperature forcings in glacial-interglacial Antarctic Ice Sheet simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8215, 2022.

EGU22-9447 | Presentations | CR1.4

Assessment of the Antarctic ice-sheet response to ice-shelf collapse as a function of the friction law employed 

Sergio Pérez-Montero, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas

Sea-level rise projections under climate change exhibit large uncertainty related to the contribution of ice sheets. A major source of uncertainty is the Antarctic Ice-Sheet (AIS) due to the marine-based nature of the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet (WAIS). Part of the WAIS is grounded under sea level and thus in contact with the surrounding ocean via the floating ice shelves. Melting of ice shelves does not directly contribute to sea level rise but it modulates the ice flow towards the sea by controlling the discharge through the grounding line. However, the processes that regulate the dynamics are not fully well understood and represented in state-of-the-art models due to the complexity of the various feedbacks involved. In addition, the basal friction or sliding law that should be employed is not well known. In this context arose the Antarctic BUttressing Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP, Sun et al., 2020) with the aim of studying the response of the AIS to a sudden and maintained collapse of its ice shelves. Here we show the results obtained while performing experiments extending those of Sun et al., (2020) with the thermomechanical ice-sheet model Yelmo and assessing the effect of using different friction laws.

How to cite: Pérez-Montero, S., Blasco, J., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., and Alvarez-Solas, J.: Assessment of the Antarctic ice-sheet response to ice-shelf collapse as a function of the friction law employed, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9447, 2022.

EGU22-9448 | Presentations | CR1.4 | Highlight

Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise with a three-dimensional ice-sheet model 

Antonio Juárez-Martínez, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, Jorge Álvarez-Solas, and Alexander Robinson

Sea-level rise represents one of the biggest threats that humankind has to face in the
coming centuries. Antarctica hosts today's largest ice sheet on Earth, the Antarctic Ice Sheet
(AIS). In the mid-long term, the AIS could become the main contributor to sea-level rise,
especially as a result of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) being marine-based and
therefore strongly exposed to the ocean. Nonetheless, there is substantial uncertainty in the
future contribution of the AIS to sea-level rise, mainly as a result of poor understanding of
physical processes, such as ice-sheet dynamics or ice-ocean interactions. In order to
overcome the problem of different Antarctic sea-level projections with different experimental
setups, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 was organized (ISMIP6).
The first results showed that at higher emission scenarios the AIS melts more. Nonetheless,
the WAIS response to this warming varies widely among the models. We herein investigate
the contribution of the higher-order ice-sheet model Yelmo. Results
with Yelmo show a strong sensitivity of the AIS contribution to sea-level rise to the calibration
of the basal-melting parametrization, particularly remarkable in the WAIS, but being in the
range of the results reached by other ice-sheets models in the context of the ISMIP6
intercomparison project.

How to cite: Juárez-Martínez, A., Blasco, J., Montoya, M., Álvarez-Solas, J., and Robinson, A.: Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise with a three-dimensional ice-sheet model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9448, 2022.

Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica may be the single largest contributor to sea level rise in the coming centuries, but existing projections over such timescales are highly uncertain. A number of factors contribute to this uncertainty and robust predictions involve many complex processes through the interaction between ice, ocean and atmosphere. Here, we use the Úa ice-flow model in conjunction with an uncertainty quantification approach to provide uncertainty estimates for the future (100 years’ time scale) mass loss from Thwaites, and the relative contribution of individual model parameters to that uncertainty. In a first step, we simulate Thwaites glacier from 1997 to present day for a wide variety of uncertain model parameters and compare key outputs from each simulation to observations.  Using a Bayesian probability framework we sample the model parameter space, using informed priors, to build up a model emulator, allowing us to provide uncertainty estimates for a range of future emission scenarios. We show how this framework can be used to quantify the relative contribution of each model parameter to the total variance in our estimation of the future mass loss from the area. This, furthermore, allows us to make clear quantitative statements about different sources of uncertainty, for example, those related to external forcing parameterizations (e.g. surface mass balance) as compared to uncertainties in ice-flow parameters (e.g. basal sliding).    

How to cite: Rosier, S. and Gudmundsson, H.: Estimating the future sea level rise contribution of Thwaites glacier, Antarctica, using an uncertainty quantification approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9736, 2022.

EGU22-10547 | Presentations | CR1.4

Projected increases in Antarctic snow accumulation from CMIP6 to 2300 

Natalie Trayling, Daniel Lowry, and Ruzica Dadic

As the atmosphere warms in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, snow accumulation over the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to increase over the next century. Furthermore, short-term emissions scenarios are also expected to have long-term impacts on ice sheet mass balance for centuries to come. Here, we analysed the extended runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project’s Sixth Phase (CMIP6) to investigate the consequences of emissions scenarios on Antarctic surface mass balance until 2300. Unlike the Arctic, which shows a regime shift from snow-dominated precipitation to rain-dominated precipitation, snow accumulation continues to outpace ablation over the Antarctic Ice Sheet through the year 2300, even under the high emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 scenario. The positive relationship between precipitation and temperature increases through time at both high elevation in the continental interior as well as at the coastal margins of the ice sheet. Under high emissions, although rainfall is projected in some vulnerable regions, such as Thwaites Glacier, overall surface mass balance remains positive and increases through time. In corresponding ice sheet model experiments using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, the sea level compensation of this increased surface mass balance is as high as 10 cm by 2100 and 1.8 m by 2300, though considerable intermodel spread exists. These model results suggest that mass loss of the ice sheet will continue to be dominated by ocean driven-melting rather than melting of the ice sheet surface for the next centuries.

How to cite: Trayling, N., Lowry, D., and Dadic, R.: Projected increases in Antarctic snow accumulation from CMIP6 to 2300, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10547, 2022.

EGU22-1388 | Presentations | GD9.2

A high-resolution record of vertically-resolved seawater salinity in the Caribbean Sea mixed layer since 1700 AD. 

Amos Winter, Davide Zanchettin, Malcolm McCulloch, Manuel Rigo, Clark Sherman, and Angelo Rubino

The Caribbean Sea in the tropical Atlantic is one of the major heat engines of the Earth and a sensitive area for monitoring climate variability. Salinity changes in the Caribbean Sea record changes in ocean currents and can provide information about variations in ocean heat transport. Seawater salinity in the Caribbean Sea has been monitored in recent decades, nevertheless, of all oceanographic environmental parameters salinity information before the instrumental period remains limited, due to the difficulty of reconstructing salinity, arguably the most difficult natural archives to recreate. We were able to reconstruct salinity changes in the Caribbean Sea from 1700 to the present from southwest Puerto Rico using slowly growing and long-lived scelerosponges from southwest Puerto Rico. These well-dated sponges are known to precipitate their skeletons in isotopic equilibrium (i.e., their record is not affected much by vital effects) and were retrieved from various depths in the mixed layer, from the surface to 90 m depth. We were able to establish salinity changes by deconvoluting stable isotopes (d18O) and trace element (Sr/Ca) proxies taken from the sponges at regular intervals. In this contribution, we will present the salinity record and illustrate the process for salinity reconstruction. We will also discuss how we determine how salinity changes in our record relate to radiative forcing as well as connect them with dominant mechanisms operating in the region, including changes in the position of the InterTtropical Convergence Zone and intensity of the Atlantic meridional Overturning Circulation over time.

How to cite: Winter, A., Zanchettin, D., McCulloch, M., Rigo, M., Sherman, C., and Rubino, A.: A high-resolution record of vertically-resolved seawater salinity in the Caribbean Sea mixed layer since 1700 AD., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1388, 2022.

EGU22-3134 | Presentations | GD9.2

Reconstructing the climate of the Extremadura region (SW Spain) from documentary sources 

José M. Vaquero, María C. Gallego, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor M.S. Carrasco, and Irene Tovar

In recent years, our research group has tried to improve the knowledge of the historical climate of the Extremadura region, located in the interior of the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Some results can be highlighted:

  • Temperature and precipitation indices were constructed for the period 1750-1840 from the correspondence of the Duke of Feria (Fernández-Fernández et al., 2014, 2015, 2017).
  • We have recovered many “pro pluvia” rogation dates (Domínguez-Castro et al., 2021) and we have seen their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Bravo-Paredes et al., 2020).
  • We have studied the catastrophic floods of the Guadiana River since AD1500 (Bravo-Paredes et al., 2021).
  • We have recovered more than 700,000 meteorological data from the Extremadura region taken in the 19th and early 20th centuries (Vaquero et al., 2022), including some uncommon series (Bravo-Paredes et al., 2019).

In recent months, we have started a study of the meteorological information published by the regional press of Extremadura in the last 150 years and here we will present some preliminary results.

References

Bravo-Paredes, N. et al. (2019) Tellus B 71, 1663597.

Bravo-Paredes, N. et al. (2020) Atmosphere 11(3), 282.

Bravo-Paredes, N. et al. (2021) Science of the Total Environment 797, 149141.

Domínguez-Castro, F. et al. (2021) Scientific Data 8, 186.

Fernández-Fernández, M.I. et al. (2014) Climatic Change 126, 107.

Fernández-Fernández, M.I. et al. (2015) Climatic Change 129, 267.

Fernández-Fernández, M.I. et al. (2017) Climatic Change 141, 671.

Vaquero, J.M. et al. (2022) Geoscience Data Journal. https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.131

How to cite: Vaquero, J. M., Gallego, M. C., Bravo-Paredes, N., Carrasco, V. M. S., and Tovar, I.: Reconstructing the climate of the Extremadura region (SW Spain) from documentary sources, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3134, 2022.

EGU22-3906 | Presentations | GD9.2

Earthquake detection in time-series of laser strainmeter measurements as a first step towards automatic signal classification. 

Valentin Kasburg, Alexander Breuer, Martin Bücker, and Nina Kukowski

Geophysical observatories around the world collect data on various natural phenomena within the Earth and on its surface. Many of these measurements are made automatically, sometimes at high sampling rates, so that enormous amounts of data accumulate over the years. Continuous analysis is important to classify current phenomena and decide which data are important and which can be downsampled later.

At Moxa Geodynamic Observatory, located in central Germany, several laser strainmeters have been installed in subsurface galleries in order to measure strain of the Earth's crust. These instruments run in north-south, east-west, and northwest-southeast directions. Nano-strain rates are determined with a sampling rate of 0.1 Hz almost continuously over distances of 26 and 38 m, respectively, since summer 2011.

Signals of tectonically induced crustal deformation are superimposed by other signals of greater amplitude, e.g., tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, hydrologic events such as heavy rainfall, and earthquakes. Classification of these events is important to better associate jumps in the temporal vicinity and to distinguish anomalies from instrument failures. To avoid time-consuming pattern recognition by hand, algorithms are required to do most of the work automatically. Due to recent advances in the field of artificial intelligence, it is possible to implement time series algorithms that are capable of unifying and automating many steps of data analysis. Although artificial intelligence applications are increasingly used to support data analysis, their use for time series of geophysical origin so far is not widespread outside of seismology.

In this contribution, an approach to automatically detect earthquakes in the strain data using 1D Convolutional Neural Networks is presented, including the generation of artificial training data with time series data augmentation. Also the training process and generation of new training data, based on classification by hand and false predictions of the trained model is described. The 1D Convolutional Neural Networks are able to identify almost all earthquakes in the strain data and have F1 values > 0.99, showing that their application has the potential to significantly reduce the time required in signal classification of observatory time series data.

How to cite: Kasburg, V., Breuer, A., Bücker, M., and Kukowski, N.: Earthquake detection in time-series of laser strainmeter measurements as a first step towards automatic signal classification., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3906, 2022.

EGU22-6814 | Presentations | GD9.2

Long term deformation and seismic observations at the Mont Terri rock laboratory 

Dorothee Rebscher, Senecio Schefer, Finnegan Reichertz, Yves Guglielmi, William Foxall, Inma Gutiérrez, and Edi Meier

The Mont Terri rock laboratory, located in the Swiss Jura Mountains, is dedicated to research on argillaceous rocks. Since its founding in 1996, the objective is the hydrogeological, geochemical, and geotechnical characterisation of Opalinus Clay in the context of nuclear waste repositories. More recently, the work has broadened to additional fields, covering potential uses of the deep geological subsurface such as geological storage of carbon dioxide and geothermal energy. With the excellent infrastructure, a comprehensive database, and the broad scientific and technological expertise, knowledge is enhanced e.g. through the advancement and comparison of approaches as well as the development and testing of novel investigation methods. These, as well as studies on feasibility and risk assessment, are of benefit also for underground laboratories in general and in situ explorations in different rock types worldwide. Due to the long-term commitment and the available gallery space of the research facility, elaborate as well as decade-long experiments can be implemented.

In order to detect, quantify, and understand short- and long-term deformations in the Mont Terri rock laboratory, quasi continuous time series are established employing various monitoring techniques. The latter complement each other in regard to their spatial dimensions, operational frequency optima, and their point or integral information. The approach combines

  • a 50 m long uniaxial hydrostatic levelling system (HLS, Type “PSI”, positioned along a gallery wall, measuring principle: electrical plate capacitors),
  • four mini-arrays of very-broad-band triaxial seismometers, installed in the rock laboratory (one under the HLS) as well as outside the rock laboratory at the surface,
  • and an array of high resolution, biaxial platform tiltmeters, with instruments situated close to the HLS and in various parts of the rock laboratory, integrated in other in situ experiments.

The observed signals and their analysis differ in space and time. They range from the detection of local nanoseismic as well as large tele seismic events, to the determination of earth tides, and to the identification of seasonal trends versus other long term geodetic movements. Besides the mutual comparison of the three deformation measurements, the time series provide valuable input for numerous scientific questions such as the stability of the rock laboratory as a whole or in its parts, the influence of excavation, ventilation, or fluid injection on rock matrix and faults. Long data series of ambient parameters, essential for interpretation of the deformation records, such as temperature, pressure, and humidity, are recorded by sensors integrated in the above listed instruments and are also of interest in further experiments performed by the Mont Terri Consortium.

How to cite: Rebscher, D., Schefer, S., Reichertz, F., Guglielmi, Y., Foxall, W., Gutiérrez, I., and Meier, E.: Long term deformation and seismic observations at the Mont Terri rock laboratory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6814, 2022.

EGU22-8343 | Presentations | GD9.2 | Highlight

Variations of the Earth magnetic field: From geomagnetic storms to field reversal 

Roman Leonhardt

The geomagnetic field, the Earth’s primary barrier against charged particles from the sun, varies on time scales from million years to sub-second fluctuations. In the past decades significant advances in measurement techniques, both ground and space based, paleo- and rock magnetic methods, as well as numerical and analytical simulations, improved our understanding of underlying processes and their consequences on our planet and on our society. Geomagnetic storms, often related to coronal mass ejections on the sun and their interaction with the Earth‘s magnetic field, pose a threat to our modern society as they affect satellites, disturb radio communication, and, in particular, damage power grids and cause electrical blackouts on a massive scale. Ground based measurements, which are used together with satellite data to investigate these events, point towards the occurrence of global scale major storms once every 100 years. When further looking at such observatory data, which is existing for the last few hundred years, it is also striking that the global Earth‘s magnetic field is gradually weakening, by more the 10% in the past 200 years. Paleo- and archeomagnetic investigations are used to extend our observational range into the past in order to clarify the significance and reasons of this field reduction. When looking even further into the past, complete flips of the geomagnetic field are recorded in geological archives like volcanic rocks and sediments. These geomagnetic field reversals, the last one happening about 770kyrs ago, are accompanied by strong reductions of the geomagnetic field strength and complex field behavior on the Earths surface, effects which are sometimes brought into connection with our modern observation of field reduction. This presentation will provide a comprehensive overview about geomagnetic field variations, and the necessity of using long timeseries for interpretation of its current state and future evolution.

How to cite: Leonhardt, R.: Variations of the Earth magnetic field: From geomagnetic storms to field reversal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8343, 2022.

To achieve very low ambient noise and thus very good conditions for long-term geophysical observations at a high level of instrumental accuracy in order to decipher also faint signals from Earth and environmental processes, sensors often are installed in the subsurface in galleries or in boreholes. This however, makes it necessary to consider the potential influence of the geological setting and properties of the surrounding rock formations and overburden.
Moxa Geodynamic observatory, located in a remote part of the Thuringian slate mountains, approximately 30 km south of Jena, provides an ideal setting to address this topic as it comprises two galleries, which are running perpendicular to each other. As the observatory is built at the toe of a relatively steep slope, coverage of the galleries varies along them. Further, the tectonic structure and hydrological settings of the overburden is rather complex.
Instruments sensitive to deformation, which include three laser strain meters measuring nano-strain, borehole tiltmeters and a superconducting gravimeter CD-034, together with other instruments, e.g. a node for the Global Network of Optical Magnetometers for Exotic physics (GNOME), are installed in various positions in the building of the observatory, close to the building, and in the galleries. The laser strainmeters record along three galleries in north-south, east-west and NW-SE directions. Further, information on fluid flow is gained from downhole temperature measurements employing an optical fiber and several groundwater level indicators, some of them installed in shallow boreholes. Additionally, information on environmental parameters is coming from a climate station and on the subsurface tectonic structure from various near surface geophysical data sets. 
Here, we present first results of an ongoing project which combines actual deformation recordings, structural and drillhole information to decipher how the tectonic structure of the and groundwater movement within the overlying slope on top of the observatory’s galleries may impact on the various instrumental recordings.

How to cite: Kukowski, N., Kasburg, V., Goepel, A., Schwarze, C., Jahr, T., and Stolz, R.: Impact of the geological setting of the overburden on long-time series recorded at underground geophysical observatories: case study from the FSU Jena Geodynamic Observatory Moxa (Thuringia, central Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11079, 2022.

EGU22-11916 | Presentations | GD9.2

Downscaling to high-resolution and correcting air temperature from the ERA5-Land over Ethiopia 

Mosisa Tujuba Wakjira, Nadav Peleg, and Peter Molnar

Climate information from in-situ observation networks can be used to significantly improve the accuracy of gridded climate datasets, even in data-scarce regions. We applied a bias correction and spatial disaggregation method on daily maximum and minimum ERA5-Land (ERA5L) 2-m air temperature dataset covering Ethiopia. Due to large gaps in the observed temperature data, the bias correction is based on the statistics rather than the complete time series. First, long-term daily, monthly and annual temperature statistics (mean and variance) were summarized for the time series obtained from 155 stations covering the period 1981-2010. Second, the temperature statistics were interpolated onto a 0.05° x 0.05° grid using an inverse non-Euclidean distance weighting approach. This method accounts for the effects of elevation, thus enabling downscaling of the temperature to a higher spatial resolution. Next, the ERA5L maximum and minimum temperature were bias-corrected using quantile mapping assuming a Gaussian distribution transfer function. The quantile mapping was performed at daily, monthly and annual time steps to reproduce the climatology, seasonality, and interannual variability of the data. The performance of the bias correction was evaluated using the leave-out-one cross-validation method. The cross-validation shows that the bias-corrected maximum (minimum) daily temperature has an improved mean absolute error value of 68% (52%) in comparison to the original ERA5L reanalysis air temperature bias. The bias-corrected dataset is therefore suggested as an alternative for the ERA5L and can be used in a wide range of applications in Ethiopia.

How to cite: Wakjira, M. T., Peleg, N., and Molnar, P.: Downscaling to high-resolution and correcting air temperature from the ERA5-Land over Ethiopia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11916, 2022.

Geomagnetic activity is a measure aimed to quantify the effect of solar wind upon the Earth's magnetic environment. The main structures in solar wind driving geomagnetic activity are the coronal mass ejections (CME) and the high-speed solar wind streams together with related co-rotating interaction regions (HSS/CIR). While CMEs are closely related to sunspots and other active regions on solar surface, the HSSs are related to solar coronal holes, forming a proxy of solar polar magnetic fields. This gives an interesting possibility to obtain versatile information on solar activity and solar magnetic fields from geomagnetic activity.

Various indices have been developed to quantify and monitor global geomagnetic activity. The most often used indices of overall geomagnetic activity are the aa index, developed by P. Mayaud and running already since 1868, and the Kp/Ap index, developed by J. Bartels and running since 1932. Both aa and Kp/Ap depict the increase of geomagnetic activity during the first half of the 20th century, and a steep decline in the 2000s. However, although the two indices are constructed from midlatitude observations using roughly the same recipe, they depict notable differences during the 90-year overlapping interval. While the Kp/Ap index reaches a centennial maximum in the late 1950s, at the same time as sunspots, the aa index has its maximum only in 2003. Also, the Kp/Ap is systematically relatively more active in the first decades until 1960s, while aa is more active thereafter. The Dst index was developed to monitor geomagnetic storms and the ring current since 1957. We have corrected some early errors in the Dst index and extended its time interval to 1932. This extended storm index is called the Dxt index. Here we study these long-term geomagnetic indices and their differences. We also use their different dependences on the main solar wind drivers in order to obtain new information on the centennial evolution of solar activity and solar magnetic fields.

How to cite: Mursula, K.: Long-term geomagnetic activity: Comparison and analysis of geomagnetic activity indices during the last 90 years, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12745, 2022.

EGU22-940 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

A simple low-cost Arduino based LoRaWAN automatic weather station 

Tom Müller, Bettina Schaefli, and Stuart N. Lane

With a rapid increase in the use of low-cost DIY Arduino solutions, many companies are providing low cost sensors for practically any environmental applications and new users can also benefit from a rich virtual community proposing diverse solutions and tutorials. Nowadays, these new hardware solutions, as well as more robust communication protocols, allow to design very simple almost plug-and-play automatic dataloggers.

In this talk we will discuss three simple datalogger solutions developed in the framework of a field campaign in a harsh proglacial environment in the Swiss Alps. The first solution consists of a simple autonomous datalogger (based on Seeeduino Stalker board) designed to record piezometric heads in wells, even during the winter cold season. The second station consists of two alternative main boards (SODAQ and CubeCell) that were used to develop a connected LoRaWAN automatic weather station to monitor air temperature and precipitation on the glacier. Connected to a base station LoRaWAN gateway (Dragino), this system successfully allowed for a remote monitoring of those parameters.

In a first step, we will quickly go through the main components of each system and detail the basic LoRaWAN architecture. We will then mostly focus on the practical deployment of these solutions in the field and discuss their potential and challenges. We will try to show a live demonstration of their functioning and will insist on the relative technical simplicity and low-cost of such solutions, which could be replicated for many other environmental applications. We will finally discuss the pros and cons of these solutions compared to professional senor companies.

How to cite: Müller, T., Schaefli, B., and Lane, S. N.: A simple low-cost Arduino based LoRaWAN automatic weather station, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-940, 2022.

The role of freshwater ecosystems in the global carbon budget has yet to be accurately quantified. Substantial uncertainties remain in estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes to the atmosphere due to heterogeneity, temporal variability and small scale of many systems. Additionally, methods to measure dissolved gases involve expensive equipment and/or are time consuming, making fine scale resolution challenging. We here present a self-made low-cost (~ 250 €) sensor unit which can measure carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the water phase, allowing inexpensive continuous in-situ logging of GHG concentrations with little manpower.

The electronic hardware of the sensor unit is integrated into a polypropylene tubing with two parts: The sensor body is completely waterproof and houses electrical hardware and battery. The sensor head houses the gas sensors and is separated from the water phase by a semipermeable PTFE membrane that is hydrophobic but permeable to gases, thereby allowing the gaseous phase in the sensor head to equilibrate with the water phase.

For CO2, we use a miniature non-dispersive infrared sensor; data from the factory-calibrated sensor can be read via I2C serial communication. For CH4, we use a semiconductor gas quality sensor from the Figaro sensor family. Originally developed for explosion warning systems, these sensors were shown to detect CH4 near ambient concentration. Incorporated into a voltage divider, sensor output voltage can be measured and translated into CH4 concentration. Electrical resistance of this sensor varies in presence of combustible gases but also with temperature and humidity. Additional sensors provide pressure, temperature and relative humidity; and mathematical models fitted to calibration data allow to adjust for reference output voltage at background concentration levels, thereby allowing measurement of CH4 concentration. As a microprocessor, we use an Arduino mini board in combination with a real-time clock, a voltage regulator and a micro SD-card module. The microprocessor is programmed using Arduino´s integrated development environment. Data is stored on the internal SD card and powered by two Li-Ion 18650 batteries connected in series. The sensor is able to measure continuously for 24 hours.

Our low-cost, yet accurate-enough sensor can help to address the major bottlenecks in better quantification of GHG fluxes: continuous measurements to capture natural temporal variability, as well as spatially replicated measurements to map carbon sources and sinks across heterogeneous ecosystems with little investment costs. 

How to cite: Dalvai Ragnoli, M.: RiverRunner: a low-cost sensor prototype for continuous dissolved GHG measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1617, 2022.

EGU22-1657 | Presentations | HS1.2.1 | Highlight

Measuring the eigenfrequencies of candlestick stalagmites with a custom 3D-printed sensor modified from a Raspberry Shake 3D 

Aurélie Martin, Thomas Lecocq, Ari Lannoy, Yves Quinif, Thierry Camelbeeck, and Nathalie Fagel

The eigenfrequencies of speleothems are fundamental parameters in the study of their response to earthquakes. To study these, the seismic ambient noise is measured by three-component seismic sensors adapted to the geometry of the speleothems. This method is currently being studied in the Han-sur-Lesse cave (Ardenne, Belgium).

A previous study (Martin et al. 2020) was carried out with a SmartSolo IGU-16HR 3C sensor on an imposing 4.5 m tall stalagmite.  This approach demonstrated the feasibility and interest of studying the eigenfrequencies of stalagmites from ambient noise. However, this sensor was too heavy for use on thin and slender stalagmites. The challenge was to find and adapt a lighter sensor able to record very weak movements while being easily adjustable to the various shapes of the stalagmite and securely attachable on these to reduce the impact of the sensor on frequencies measurements and the risks for the fragile structure.

A solution was found by using a Raspberry Shake 3D Personal Seismograph (RS) that initially integrates three orthogonal velocity sensors (Sunfull PS-4.5B), the digitizer, and the Raspberry Pi computer into a single plexiglass box​. The RS has the advantage of being less heavy while being composed of three weak motion geophones. After a comparison study, this sensor gives similar results for eigenfrequency and polarization analyses. However, the use of this new sensor on thin and slender stalagmites requires the creation of suitable support. The RS was split and distributed around the stalagmite. The geophone wiring was modified and extended to separate the geophones from the acquisition system. A 3D-printed support was created to guarantee the orthogonality of the horizontal sensors while reducing the stresses by distributing the weight of the sensor around the stalagmite.

This new configuration allowed determining the eigenfrequencies of 16 thin and slender stalagmites in the Han-sur-Lesse cave (Ardenne, Belgium) and the polarization of the motions associated with these frequencies. Moreover, a two-week recording period allows to measure the daily and weekly variation of ambient noise and transient events like earthquakes, quarry blasts or flooding events in the cave.

Reference: Martin, A.; Lecocq, T.; Hinzen, K.-G.; Camelbeeck, T.; Quinif, Y.; Fagel, N. Characterizing Stalagmites’ Eigenfrequencies by Combining In Situ Vibration Measurements and Finite Element Modeling Based on 3D Scans. Geosciences 2020, 10, 418. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10100418

How to cite: Martin, A., Lecocq, T., Lannoy, A., Quinif, Y., Camelbeeck, T., and Fagel, N.: Measuring the eigenfrequencies of candlestick stalagmites with a custom 3D-printed sensor modified from a Raspberry Shake 3D, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1657, 2022.

EGU22-2722 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

Using an open source approach to remotely collect reliable environmental data 

Mathis Björner, Michael Naumann, Frederik Furkert, Daniel Stepputtis, Andreas Hermann, Martin Gag, Sebastian Eilek, and Robert Wagner

Environmental monitoring programs carried out by expeditions or autonomous stations are expensive and only allow measurements for discrete times and locations. After data acquisition most of the data needs hand-operated validation and evaluation before being stored in databases.

For a higher local and temporal resolution on parameters of marine ecosystems, it is planned to extend monitoring programs by attaching a small-sized module, which combines a microcontroller with multiple sensors, to ships of opportunity or any other suitable platform. The modules design focuses on the usability, reliability and interoperability of the derived data by using metadata information and assessing in-situ which data is relevant to be measured and stored.

Using an ESP32, a popular microcontroller, to collect data from OEM sensors of different manufacturers enables a high flexibility in parameters and sensor types. The use of different OEM sensors also allows to experiment with unconventional hydrological sensors. The proposed open source module attempts to collect data as reliable as with conventional monitoring sensor systems.

This approach allows an event based data acquisition, e.g. by adjusting the sampling rate so that only as much data as necessary is measured. In order to provide precise spatio-temporal referencing, the system contains a real time clock and GPS positioning. Moreover, storing the raw data of the sensors alongside their calibration coefficients enables post-processing of the data. The ESP32 transmits the stored data to a server via WiFi or an external LTE module. From this point on, a machine-based validation, flagging of relevant data and basic visualization can assist the evaluation.

With such a module integrating multiple sensors and focusing on the interpretation and use of data starting at the measurement, reliable and pre-evaluated data from hard to access areas can be obtained and contribute to the assessment of dynamic and heterogeneous ecosystems.

How to cite: Björner, M., Naumann, M., Furkert, F., Stepputtis, D., Hermann, A., Gag, M., Eilek, S., and Wagner, R.: Using an open source approach to remotely collect reliable environmental data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2722, 2022.

EGU22-3517 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

Portable low cost devices for in situ measurements of CO2 exchange and vegetation spectral indices: Design and first results. 

Reena Macagga, Danica Antonijevic, Rodrigo Monzon, Rinan Bayot, Matthias Lueck, Michael Asante, Leonce Geoffroy Sossa, Pearl Sanchez, Juergen Augustin, and Mathias Hoffmann

Measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO­­2) play an important role in finding solutions to mitigate the global climate crises. In case of direct treatment comparisons, dynamic manual closed chamber systems are often used to measure the CO2 exchange and determine the treatment corresponding net ecosystem C balance (NECB). These measurements are commonly accompanied by records of non-destructive spectral vegetation indices such as RVI and NDVI, which can be used to validate obtained CO2 flux dynamics, to improve the accuracy and precision of determined CO2 exchange during gap-filling, and for up-scaling purposes. However, commercially available systems for both measurements of CO2 exchange and spectral vegetation indices are usually cost-intensive, which resulted in a long-term focus in GHG research on the northern hemisphere and the fact that studies on agroecosystems in sub-Saharan Africa as well as Southeast Asia are still being underrepresented.

We present two portable, inexpensive, open source devices to measure in situ 1) CO2 fluxes using the manual closed chamber method; and 2) vegetation spectral indices, such as NDVI and RVI. The CO2 flux measurement device consists of a combination of multiple low-cost sensors, such as a NDIR-based CO­2 sensor (K30FR; 0-10,000 ppm, ± 30 ppm accuracy), a DHT-22 (humidity and temperature) and a BMP280 (air pressure). Sensors are connected to a bluetooth enabled, battery powered, compact microcontroller based logger unit for data visualization and storage.  The handheld, NDVI measurement device consist of a combination of two faced up and two faced down visible (AS7262) and IR (AS7263) sensors, as well as a CCS811 and BME280 for parallel measurements of relevant environmental parameters (e.g., ambient temperature and relative humidity). Sensor control, data visualization and storage is implemented using again a bluetooth enabled, battery powered, compact microcontroller based logger unit. Here, we present the design, and first results of both low-cost devices. Results were validated against results of customized CO2 and NDVI measurement systems using regular scientific sensors (LI-COR 850 and SKR 1840(ND) and data logger components (CR1000). 

Keywords: CO2 exchange measurements, closed chamber, NDVI, low-cost open source DIY device

How to cite: Macagga, R., Antonijevic, D., Monzon, R., Bayot, R., Lueck, M., Asante, M., Sossa, L. G., Sanchez, P., Augustin, J., and Hoffmann, M.: Portable low cost devices for in situ measurements of CO2 exchange and vegetation spectral indices: Design and first results., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3517, 2022.

EGU22-3719 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

Development of air quality boxes based on low-cost sensor technology 

Paul Gäbel, Christian Koller, and Elke Hertig

Analyses of the relationships between climate, air substances and health usually concentrate on urban environments due to increased urban temperatures, high levels of air pollution and the exposure of a large number of people compared to rural environments. Ongoing urbanization, demographic aging and climate change lead to an increased vulnerability with respect to climate-related extremes and air pollution. However, systematic analyses of the specific local-scale characteristics of health-relevant atmospheric conditions and compositions in urban environments are still scarce due to the lack of high-resolution monitoring networks. In recent years low-cost sensors became available, which potentially provide the opportunity to monitor atmospheric conditions with a high spatial resolution and which allow monitoring directly at exposed people.

We develop a measurement system for several air substances like ozone, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and particulate matter as well as meteorological variables like temperature and relative humidity, based on low-cost sensors. This involves the assembly of compact, weatherproof boxes with 3D-printed parts. They contain a control unit based on Arduino hardware to gather the sensor data as well as self-designed printed circuit boards (PCBs). A Pycom microcontroller is used for low-power, high-temporal data transmissions by Long-Term Evolution Cat-M1 (LTE-M). These Atmospheric Exposure Low-cost Monitoring units (AELCM) include digital and analogue sensors for air substances and meteorological variables, LCD display, RTC module, uninterruptible power supply, active ventilation, a SD Module as a data black box in addition to an optional internally running FTP server and optional GPS module. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation is used to evaluate the air flow inside the AELCM units. Sensors are selected based on own analyses as well as according to evaluation and performance in other projects. The measurement equipment is extensively tested using the high-quality measurement unit for meteorology and air substances (Atmospheric Exposure Monitoring System, AEMS) of our research group, located at the Augsburg University Hospital.

How to cite: Gäbel, P., Koller, C., and Hertig, E.: Development of air quality boxes based on low-cost sensor technology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3719, 2022.

EGU22-3888 | Presentations | HS1.2.1 | Highlight

Using cotton pads to sample the stable water isotopes of throughfall inside tree canopies 

Michael Stockinger, Georg Ziesel, and Christine Stumpp

Stable water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) are used as tracers in hydrology to study the components of the terrestrial water cycle. The stable water isotopes of precipitation are affected by the passage of rainfall through tree canopy, resulting in a change of the tracer signal. Several processes within the canopy are thought to be responsible for this, including evaporation, liquid-vapor equilibration, redistribution, and legacy effects. However, it is currently not clear which processes dominate under which conditions, and predictions of these changes are not yet possible. This is partly due to a lack of high resolution throughfall data, as previous studies usually sampled throughfall in evaporation-reducing bulk containers placed under canopy. Here we propose to hang commonly available cotton products in tree canopy, let them soak up rainfall water, and subsequently measure the stable water isotopes directly from the wet cotton products using the direct liquid-vapor equilibration method in the laboratory. First, four products (two types of tampons, two types of cotton pads) were evaluated in terms of the minimum amount of water drops necessary for a reliable measurement, their price, and ease of handling. Cotton pads had the overall best rating and were therefor hung in a coniferous tree placed in a rainfall simulator. With a fixed rainfall intensity, we tested how long the cotton pads can be left hanging before significant isotopic changes due to evaporation occurred. While cotton pads that were on the outer edge of the canopy showed significant deviations after only half an hour, cotton pads inside the canopy as well as close to the stem could be left hanging for one hour. As a comparison, throughfall was also collected using a bulk sampler under the canopy, and this sample showed no significant changes even after four hours. It can thus be assumed that due to the comparatively low amount of water in the cotton pads (even if soaking wet), evaporative changes of isotope values had a stronger impact on the remaining water compared to the bulk throughfall sampler. This study presents first laboratory results and further tests, in the laboratory or in the field, are called for.

How to cite: Stockinger, M., Ziesel, G., and Stumpp, C.: Using cotton pads to sample the stable water isotopes of throughfall inside tree canopies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3888, 2022.

EGU22-5446 | Presentations | HS1.2.1 | Highlight

Global surface and groundwater levels - hand measurements with a mobile app. 

Dirk Diederen
Water levels are a key ingredient for water resources management.
Surface water levels are monitored to manage open channels and rivers.
Groundwater levels are crucial to bridge times of drought and keep everything and everyone alive.
Worldwide, signals of changes in (ground)water levels are picked up by the GRACE satellite.
The development of groundwater use has led to depleted levels in many regions around the world [https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/6/829].
Coarse global data sets, provided by satellite gravity measurements, should be complemented with a global data set of accurate hand measurements.

Recently, we have launched our new public mobile app for (ground)water level measurements.
This means that now everyone can measure (ground)water levels, using their mobile phone.
Take a photo of a staffgauge, the surface water level will be returned!
Play a sound into a well/pvc pipe, the groundwater level will be returned!
Public measurements on this platform could hopefully lead to a consistent, global data set of high quality (ground)water level time series.

The app is currently available in the google play store as Mobile Water Manager.
Also, the app can be found at https://portal.mobilewatermanagement.com/ (chrome/safari - add to home screen for PWA).

 

How to cite: Diederen, D.: Global surface and groundwater levels - hand measurements with a mobile app., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5446, 2022.

EGU22-5620 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

Low energy and cost soil moisture sensor technology 

Maria Marin, Faraj Elsakloul, John Sanchez, Juan M Arteaga Saenz, David Boyle, James H O’Keeffe, Ramesh Goel, Paul D Hallett, Paul D Mitcheson, Gareth J Norton, Eric Yeatman, Darrin J Young, Cody Zesiger, and Shad Roundy

Efficient water use is a must for sustainable agriculture, driving the need for affordable soil moisture sensors to guide irrigation timing. Sensors are limited by cost, maintenance and the need for wires for data capture and charging.  We are developing low-cost, long-life, wireless in-situ soil sensing networks, which can potentially enable a much higher sensor density for large farmland or intense research plot monitoring. This custom soil sensor is made from off-the-shelf electronics and consumes approximately 10x less energy per measurement, compared to commercially available sensors. Here we present our new sensor technology, while also investigating its repeatability and accuracy in controlled conditions and comparing it to that of commercially available soil moisture sensors. The final application of the custom soil moisture sensor is an underground in-situ sensing network, which will be enabled through wireless powering and telemetry systems implemented on autonomous vehicles, both ground and aerial.

How to cite: Marin, M., Elsakloul, F., Sanchez, J., Arteaga Saenz, J. M., Boyle, D., O’Keeffe, J. H., Goel, R., Hallett, P. D., Mitcheson, P. D., Norton, G. J., Yeatman, E., Young, D. J., Zesiger, C., and Roundy, S.: Low energy and cost soil moisture sensor technology, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5620, 2022.

EGU22-7886 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

Design of solar power systems for autonomous instruments deployed in the polar regions 

Michael R Prior-Jones, Elizabeth A Bagshaw, Thomas H Nylen, Joe Pettit, and Paul Carpenter

Solar panels and batteries are commonly used to power autonomous instrumentation in remote locations. The use of solar power in the polar regions needs a special approach to the system design because of the need to store sufficient energy to cover the period of total darkness in the winter. In this presentation we review the key principles of solar power system design for the polar regions and provide a spreadsheet model to aid the design process. We demonstrate the importance of assessing the power consumption of ancillary electronics (such as solar regulators and low-voltage disconnect units), as this can often be greater or equal to that of the instrument itself. Consequently, the choice of solar regulator (and other ancillary devices) can have a major impact on the size of the battery required for successful operation. Controlled laboratory measurements  of power consumption for fourteen commonly-used models of solar regulator demonstrated that there can be disparity between the manufacturer’s specifications and measured power consumption, so we assess the most suitable  systems for low temperature, long-term deployment at polar latitudes.

How to cite: Prior-Jones, M. R., Bagshaw, E. A., Nylen, T. H., Pettit, J., and Carpenter, P.: Design of solar power systems for autonomous instruments deployed in the polar regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7886, 2022.

EGU22-9749 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

DIY Neutron detection: Boron-based Large-scale Observation of Soil Moisture (BLOSM) 

Nick van de Giesen and Edward van Amelrooij

The ratio between slow or thermal (<2.2 km/s) and fast (>2.2 km/s) neutrons is known to be a good measure of the amount of water present in a radius of about 300m from the measurement. COSMOS detectors use this principle and measure neutrons by means of the helium isotope 3He. COSMOS has been in use for some time now and its large-scale observations are central to bridging the scaling gap between direct gravimetric observation of soil moisture (<<1m2) and the scale at which soil moisture is represented in hydrological models and satellite observations (>100m2). The main sources of 3He were nuclear warheads. The fortunate demise of nuclear weapons has had the less fortunate consequence that 3He has become expensive, leading to a search for more affordable alternatives.

Here, we present laboratory results of a boron-based neutron detector called BLOSM. About 20% of naturally occurring boron is 10B, which has a large cross-section for thermal neutrons. When 10B absorbs a neutron, it decays into lithium and alpha particles. Alpha particles can then be detected by ZnS(Ar), which sends out UV photons. Because real-estate is at a premium for most neutron detection applications, most boron detectors are based on relatively expensive enriched boron with >99% 10B. In hydrology, space is usually less of an issue, so one innovation here is that we use natural boron in a detector that is simply a bit larger than one based on enriched boron but much cheaper. A second innovation, put forward by Jeroen Plomp of the Delft Reactor Institute, are wavelength shifting fibers that capture UV photons by downshifting the wavelength to green. Green photons have a wider angle of total internal reflection and tend to stay in the fiber until they exit at the end. Here, a third innovation comes into play, inspired by Spencer Axani's $100 muon detector, namely the use of simple electronics and silicon photon multipliers (SiPMs).

Because we want to know the ratio between fast and slow neutrons, we need two detectors, one that just counts the thermal neutrons that continuously zap around and through us, and one covered by a moderator that slows down faster neutrons to thermal levels, so that they can be detected. Presently, we can build two detectors for about EU 1000. We expect that after the development of some custom electronics, this will come down to around EU 500. Ideally, we would like to build a network of these detectors in Africa in conjunction with the TAHMO network (www.tahmo.org).

How to cite: van de Giesen, N. and van Amelrooij, E.: DIY Neutron detection: Boron-based Large-scale Observation of Soil Moisture (BLOSM), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9749, 2022.

EGU22-9801 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

Leaf Structure and Function in Four Dimensions: Non-invasive MicroCT Imaging During Gas-exchange Measurements 

Danny Tholen, Susanne Scheffknecht, Klara Voggeneder, Elisabeth Weiss, and Guillaume Théroux-Rancourt

Plant physiologists have used microscopy to study how leaf anatomy is related to photosynthetic performance and how this relation is affected by environmental conditions. However, leaf anatomy is not invariant over time: small pores on the leaf surface (stomata) open and close within minutes in response to the availability of water, CO2 and light. Within tens of minutes following a water deficit, cells in many leaves also shrink significantly in volume and the leaf undergoes structural changes as a result of wilting. Gas-exchange setups can monitor changes in photosynthesis and transpiration under such conditions, but classical microscopy techniques are not well-suited to capture the concomitant changes in leaf anatomy for two main reasons. First, available non-destructive microscopy techniques are limited in resolution and imaging depth, making it difficult to analyze changes in anatomy to the required detail. Second, using sectioned fixated samples is known to be associated with tissue shrinkage, swelling or deformation, making estimates of cellular volumes and surfaces prone to artifacts. Moreover, the destructive nature of these techniques makes it impossible to monitor changes in leaf anatomy during ongoing gas-exchange measurements. These limitations hinder advancing our understanding of the relation between leaf anatomy and photosynthesis or transpiration.

Here, we present a novel gas-exchange setup that combines synchrotron-based high-resolution computed tomography (microCT) with concurrent measurements of gas-exchange using an commercially available infra-red gas analyzer. We designed and constructed a novel gas-exchange cuvette with CO2 and H2O control that allows for non-invasive monitoring of leaf anatomy in a microCT setup. Custom-built sensors were used to measure light intensity and leaf temperature. At given time points during gas-exchange measurements, 300-500 X-ray projections (100 ms) were taken while the chamber rotated 180°. From this data, a leaf volume corresponding to 0.5 mm2 leaf surface was reconstructed at high resolution (0.325 µm per voxel edge).

The setup provides 3D images that can be used to measure the aperture of multiple stomata and the volumes, shapes and surface areas of cells and airspaces within the leaf. We found that the same leaf section can be scanned several times without measurable radiation damage, allowing for the combination of three spatial dimensions with time to create a 4D analysis of the leaf structure. Using poplar, willow and Arabidopsis leaves we studied how leaf anatomy rapidly adjusts after limiting water availability and show that such effects are not limited to the stomatal pore alone. We discuss the issues and pitfalls with the methodology and suggest avenues for future improvement.

How to cite: Tholen, D., Scheffknecht, S., Voggeneder, K., Weiss, E., and Théroux-Rancourt, G.: Leaf Structure and Function in Four Dimensions: Non-invasive MicroCT Imaging During Gas-exchange Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9801, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9801, 2022.

EGU22-9972 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

The WaterWorm: a low-cost, low power sensor for the detection of dissolved CH4 in glacial meltwater 

Sarah Elise Sapper, Jesper Riis Christiansen, and Christian Juncher Jørgensen

An unknown source of methane (CH4) was recently discovered under the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). CH4 is transported dissolved in meltwater from the subglacial environment to the margin of the ice sheet, where it rapidly degasses to the atmosphere. Existing knowledge gaps concern the magnitude of emissions, seasonal patterns and spatial variations along the margin of the GrIS, which require long-term monitoring and large-scale measurement campaigns at multiple meltwater outlets. A limiting factor for such studies in remote areas is that CH4 analysers (laser spectroscopy) are power-hungry, maintenance-intensive, and expensive. To overcome these obstacles, we are developing a low-cost, low power sensor for measuring dissolved CH4 in subglacial meltwater systems in the MetICE project: the WaterWorm.

The WaterWorm is based on a metal oxide sensor (MOS) designed for CH4 detection (Figaro TGS2611-E00), which is highly sensitive to variations in relative humidity (RH) and temperature. In the WaterWorm, the MOS is encased in a hydrophobic but gas-permeable silicone tube, ensuring a stable and fully saturated headspace (100% RH) during submergence. We calibrated the analogue output (in mV) of the submerged WaterWorm against a reference CH4 analyser (μGGA, GLA-331, LGR Research) connected to a dissolved gas extraction system (DGES, LGR Research) in temperature-controlled laboratory experiments by stepwise enrichment of the water with CH4. These calibration tests showed that the sensor output (set at two readings per minute) is proportional to dissolved CH4 at constant humidity and temperature.

During fieldwork near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, in summer 2021, a field baseline calibration was performed in a meltwater stream on the surface of the GrIS at ambient CH4 concentrations. WaterWorms were deployed for ten weeks in the meltwater of a small outlet of the Isunnguata Sermia glacier with known CH4 export and stable meltwater temperatures (0.0 - 0.1°C) to test the sensor under field conditions. Throughout this period, the WaterWorms measured elevated dissolved CH4 concentrations with diurnal variations that corresponded to similar diurnal variation in gaseous CH4 measurements performed with the reference CH4 analyser.

The WaterWorm is a promising and cost-efficient option for the seasonal monitoring of dissolved CH4 in glacial meltwater. With material costs of only 150€, the WaterWorm can be left unattended in the field and positioned directly at the ice edge. This makes the sensor suitable for a large-scale CH4 monitoring network along the margin of the GrIS. The next steps involve material tests to build WaterWorms for applications in other aquatic environments and at different water depths.

How to cite: Sapper, S. E., Christiansen, J. R., and Jørgensen, C. J.: The WaterWorm: a low-cost, low power sensor for the detection of dissolved CH4 in glacial meltwater, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9972, 2022.

EGU22-10102 | Presentations | HS1.2.1

A novel, low-cost floating chamber design for semi-automatic measurements of CO2 and CH4 emissions from ponds and ditches 

Barbara Vergara Niedermayr, Danica Antonijevic, Oscar Monzón, and Matthias Hoffmann
Barbara Vergara Niedermayr1,Danica Antonijevic,Oscar Monzón,and Matthias Hoffmann
Barbara Vergara Niedermayr et al. Barbara Vergara Niedermayr1, Danica Antonijevic, Oscar Monzón, and Matthias Hoffmann
  • 1Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany (bvergaraniedermayr@gmail.com)
  • 2Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e.V.
  • 1Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany (bvergaraniedermayr@gmail.com)
  • 2Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e.V.

Due to the large number of small and strongly anthropogenic influenced ponds (area <1 ha; IPCC 2019) and ditches there is a substantial emission of GHG, originating globally from open water (e.g., Peacock et al. 2017, Holgerson & Raymond 2016). Within those systems, high nutrient loadings from surrounding agriculture as well as low oxygen levels yield in N2O and especially CH4 emissions, sometimes exceeding those of small natural waterbodies many times over. The impact of land use and land use change on GHG emission regimes of these strongly anthropogenic influenced small systems is however still fairly unknown due to a lack of more broad data sets, exceeding single years and/or single case studies. The reason for this lies in the sheer variability of these systems (e.g., land use, underlying environmental conditions, hydrology, soil type, intensity of anthropogenic disturbances, etc.) as well as in the complexity to perform GHG emission measurements at a great number of locations with limited resources. The latter is even more of a problem, when considering the usually high cost-insensitivity of GHG emission measurements, as well as the persistence of an underrepresentation of data from developed or developing countries in e.g., Southeast Asia and or sub-Saharan Africa due to the long-term focus in GHG research on the northern hemisphere.

Here we present first results of an inexpensive, semi-automatic, do-it-yourself (DIY) floating chamber design, which can be used for in-situ measurements of CO2 and CH4 emissions from ponds and ditches. The floating chamber design consists of a star-shaped floating body (“rose dich”) with a cantered PVC chamber (A: 0,194 m²; V: 0,63m³. Low-cost NDIR-Sensors were attached to the chamber, for measuring CO2 (SCD30; 400-5,000 ppm, ± 50 ppm accuracy) and CH4 concentrations (Figaro Gas-Sensor TGS-2611; …). Environmental conditions during chamber deployment were recorded using a DHT-22 (humidity and temperature) and a BMP280 (air pressure) sensor device. All sensors were connected to a Bluetooth enabled, battery powered, compact microcontroller-based logger unit for data visualization and storage. Measured CO2 and CH4 emissions from ditches and ponds obtained on three locations spread over NE Germany were validated against in parallel performed GHG flux measurements using evacuated glass bottles for air sampling and subsequent GC-14A and GC-14B analyses (Shimadzu Scientifec Instruments, Japan).

 

First results indicate a generally good overall agreement of measured CO2 and CH4 emissions. Thus, the presented, semi-automatic floating chamber design might help to broaden the data basis/representativeness of GHG emission estimates of the globally relevant, small, strongly anthropogenic influenced ponds and ditches.

 

Keywords: Land use change, greenhouse gas emissions, low-cost floating chamber, semi-automatic measurements of CO2 and CH4, anthropogenic pond and ditches

How to cite: Vergara Niedermayr, B., Antonijevic, D., Monzón, O., and Hoffmann, M.: A novel, low-cost floating chamber design for semi-automatic measurements of CO2 and CH4 emissions from ponds and ditches, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10102, 2022.

Extended droughts are known to cause severe damage to crops. Short-term droughts of two to three weeks that occur in areas with high evapotranspiration demands and soils with low water-holding capacity can also significantly affect crop yields although their impact has not been well quantified. These short-term droughts are sometimes referred to as flash droughts. The timing of flash droughts likely has a major impact on whether or not they result in significant yield losses. An ongoing project funded by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is quantifying the effect of flash drought on rainfed agronomic crops and pasture grasses in the southeastern U.S. The project is also developing tools to forecast when flash drought periods result in significant yield losses. This paper reports on the development of a tool for estimating daily crop water use and soil water content for three commonly used pasture grasses of the southeastern U.S. – Bermudagrasses (Cynodon dactylon and C. dactylon´ C. nlemfuensis), Bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum), and Tall Fescue (Lolium arundinaceum). Five rainfed farmer-managed fields in which these grasses are grown for hay were instrumented with capacitance-type soil moisture sensors to continuously measure volumetric water content in 12 cm increments to a depth of 60 cm. These data are used to estimate daily crop water use / daily crop evapotranspiration (ETc) which in turn is used to estimate daily crop coefficient (Kc) values using Penman-Montieth evapotranspiration (ETo). ETo is calculated from the University of Georgia Weather Station Network weather stations located near the fields. The final product is a decision support tool that helps farmers quantify the duration of periods of low soil moisture content. The effect on the yield of these flash droughts is quantified by using the DSSAT CSM-CROPGRO-Perennial-Forage crop simulation model.

Keywords: remote sensing, evapotranspiration, crop coefficient, smart irrigation.

How to cite: Maktabi, S., Gallios, I., Knox, P., Kukal, S., and Vellidis, G.: Developing a soil moisture Decision Support Tool to quantify the occurrence of flash droughts and saturated soil conditions for pasture grasses in the southeast of the United States, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10381, 2022.

EGU22-50 | Presentations | G3.3

Towards an improved understanding of vertical land motion and sea-level change in eastern North America 

Soran Parang, Glenn A. Milne, Makan A. Karegar, and Lev Tarasov

Many coastal cities are an early casualty in climate-related coastal flooding because of processes resulting in land subsidence and thus enhanced relative sea-level (RSL) rise. Much of the Atlantic coast of North America has been sinking for thousands of years, at a maximum rate of ~20 cm per century as a consequence of solid Earth deformation in response to deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet (between ~18,000 and ~7,000 years ago) [e.g. Love et al., Earth's Future, 4(10), 2016]. Karegar et al. [Geophysical Research Letters, 43(7), 2016] have shown that vertical land motion along the Atlantic coast of the USA is an important control on nuisance flooding. A key finding in this study is that while glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the dominant process driving land subsidence in most areas, there can be large deviations from this signal due to the influence of anthropogenic activity impacting hydrological processes. For example, between Maine (45°N) and New Hampshire (43°N), the GPS data show uplift while geological data show long-term subsidence. The cause of this discrepancy is not clear, but one hypothesis is increasing water mass associated with the James Bay Hydroelectric Project in Quebec [Karegar et al., Scientific Reports, 7, 2017].

The primary aim of this study is to better constrain and understand the processes that contribute to contemporary and future vertical land motion in this region to produce improved projections of mean sea-level change and nuisance flooding. The first step towards achieving these aims is to determine a GIA model parameter set that is compatible with observations of past sea-level change for this region. We make use of two regional RSL data compilations: Engelhart and Horton [Quaternary Science Reviews, 54, 2012] for northern USA and Vacchi et al. [Quaternary Science Reviews, 201, 2018] for Eastern Canada, comprising a total of 1013 data points (i.e., sea level index points and limiting data points) over 38 regions distributed throughout our study region. These data are well suited to determine optimal GIA model parameters due to the magnitude of other signals being much smaller, particularly in near-field regions such as Eastern Canada. We consider a suite of 32 ice history models that is comprised mainly of a subset from Tarasov et al. [Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 315–316, 2012] as well as the ICE-6G and ANU models. We have computed RSL for these ice histories using a state-of-the-art sea-level calculator and 440 1-D Earth viscosity models per each ice history model to identify a set of Earth model parameters that is compatible with the observations.

How to cite: Parang, S., Milne, G. A., Karegar, M. A., and Tarasov, L.: Towards an improved understanding of vertical land motion and sea-level change in eastern North America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-50, 2022.

EGU22-852 | Presentations | G3.3

The inclusion of ice model uncertainty in 3D Glacial Isostatic Adjustment modelling: a case study from the Russian Arctic 

Tanghua Li, W. Richard Peltier, Gordan Stuhne, Nicole Khan, Alisa Baranskaya, Timothy Shaw, Patrick Wu, and Benjamin Horton

The western Russian Arctic was partially covered by the Eurasian ice sheet complex during the Last Glacial Maximum (~26 ka BP) and is a focus area for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) studies. However, there have been few GIA studies conducted in the Russian Arctic due to the lack of high quality deglacial relative sea-level (RSL) data. Recently, Baranskaya et al. (2018) released a quality-controlled deglacial RSL database for the Russian Arctic that consists of ~400 sea-level index points and ~250 marine and terrestrial limiting data that constrain RSL since 20 ka BP. Here, we use the RSL database to constrain the 3D Earth structure beneath the Russian Arctic, with consideration of the uncertainty in ice model ICE-7G_NA, which is assessed via iteratively refining the ice model with fixed 1D Earth model to achieve a best fit with the RSL data. Also, the uncertainties in 3D Earth parameters and RSL predictions are investigated.

 

We find an optimal 3D Earth model (Vis3D) improves the fit with the deglacial RSL data compared with the VM7 1D model when fixed with the ICE-7G_NA ice model. Similarly, we show improved fit in the White Sea area, where 1D model shows notable misfits, with the refined ice model ICE-7G_WSR when fixed with VM7 Earth model. The comparable fits of ICE-7G_NA (Vis3D) and ICE-7G_WSR (VM7) implies that the uncertainty in the ice model might be improperly mapped into 3D viscosity structure when a fixed ice model is employed. Furthermore, fixed with refined ice model ICE-7G_WSR, we find an optimal 3D Earth model (Vis3D_R), which fits better than ICE-7G_WSR (VM7), and the magnitude of lateral heterogeneity decreases significantly from Vis3D to Vis3D_R.  We conclude that uncertainty in the ice model needs to be considered in 3D GIA studies.

How to cite: Li, T., Peltier, W. R., Stuhne, G., Khan, N., Baranskaya, A., Shaw, T., Wu, P., and Horton, B.: The inclusion of ice model uncertainty in 3D Glacial Isostatic Adjustment modelling: a case study from the Russian Arctic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-852, 2022.

EGU22-918 | Presentations | G3.3

Regional GIA: modelling choices and community needs 

Riccardo Riva

GIA is a global process, because of gravitational effects, its interplay with earth rotation, and the large spatial extent of ice-sheet and ocean loading. However, mainly due to the presence of heterogeneities in the structure of crust and upper mantle, modelling of GIA signals often requires a regional approach. This is particularly true in the light of continuous advances in earth observation techniques, that allow increasingly accurate determination of land deformation, coastal sea level change, and mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets.

This talk will address a number of open issues related to regional GIA models, such as the effect of transient and non-linear rheologies, and the complementary role of forward and semi-empirical approaches, with an eye on the needs of the geodetic, sea level and cryosphere communities.

How to cite: Riva, R.: Regional GIA: modelling choices and community needs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-918, 2022.

EGU22-1343 | Presentations | G3.3

Resolving the Influence of Ice Stream Instability on Postglacial Relative Sea-Level Histories: the case of the St Lawrence River Channel Ice Stream 

Richard Peltier, Tanghua Li, Gordan Stuhnne, Jesse Velay-Vitow, Matteo Vacchi, Simon Englehart, and Benjamin Horton

A challenge to understanding Late Quaternary glaciation history is the mechanism(s) responsible for the asymmetry in an individual glaciation cycle between the slow pace of glaciation and the more rapid pace of deglaciation (e.g., Broecker and Van Donk, 1970). It is increasingly clear that a major contributor to the rate of global deglaciation is the instability of marine terminating ice streams. Recent analyses by Velay-Vitow et al. (2020) suggest that these instabilities were often triggered by ocean tides of anomalously high amplitude. Examples include the Hudson Strait Ice Stream responsible for Heinrich Event 1 (H1) and the Amundsen Gulf Ice Stream. Here, we analyse the instability of the Laurentian Channel and St Lawrence River Channel ice stream system. Our analysis begins with the recognition of highly significant misfits of up to 60 m at ~9,000 calendar years ago between deglacial relative sea-level histories inferred by Vacchi et al. (2018) at sites along the St Lawrence River Channel and those predicted by the ICE-6G_C (VM5a) and ICE-7G_NA (VM7) models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment process. We suggest that these disagreements between models and data may be due to the St Lawrence River Channel ice stream becoming unstable during the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) due to the hypothesized tidal mechanism for ice stream destabilization. We investigate a sequence of scenarios designed to provide a best estimate of the timing of this event. Since this ice stream penetrated deeply into the interior of the LIS and was connected to the Laurentian Channel ice stream, the instability of the latter was required in order for destabilization of the St Lawrence River channel ice stream to be possible. We explore the consistency of the implied sequence of events with the observational constraints.

How to cite: Peltier, R., Li, T., Stuhnne, G., Velay-Vitow, J., Vacchi, M., Englehart, S., and Horton, B.: Resolving the Influence of Ice Stream Instability on Postglacial Relative Sea-Level Histories: the case of the St Lawrence River Channel Ice Stream, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1343, 2022.

EGU22-1447 | Presentations | G3.3 | Highlight

Benchmark of numerical GIA codes capable of laterally heterogeneous earth structures 

Volker Klemann, Jacky Austermann, Meike Bagge, Natasha Barlow, Jeffrey Freymueller, Pingping Huang, Erik R. Ivins, Andrew Lloyd, Zdeněk Martinec, Glenn Milne, Alessio Rovere, Holger Steffen, Rebekka Steffen, Wouter van der Wal, Maryam Yousefi, and Shijie Zhong

During the last decade there has been an increasing demand to improve models of present-day loading processes and glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA). This is especially important when modelling the GIA process in tectonically active regions like the Pacific Northwest, Patagonia or West Antarctica. All these regions are underlain by zones of low-viscosity mantle. Although one-dimensional earth models may be sufficient to model local-scale uplift within these regions, modeling of the wider-scale deformation patterns requires consideration of three-dimensional viscosity structure that is consistent with other geophysical and laboratory findings. It is this wider-scale modeling that is necessary for earth-system model applications as well as for the validation or reduction of velocity fields determined by geodetic observation networks based on GNSS, for improving satellite gravimetry, and for present-day sea-level change as paleo sea-level reconstructions.

There are a number of numerical GIA codes in the community, which can consider lateral variations in viscoelastic earth structure, but a proper benchmark focusing on lateral heterogeneity is missing to date. Accordingly, ambiguity remains when interpreting the modelling results. The numerical codes are based on rather different methods to solve the respective field equations applying, e.g., finite elements, finite volumes, finite differences or spectral elements. Aspects like gravity, compressibility and rheology are dealt with differently. In this regard, the set of experiments to be performed has to be agreed on carefully, and we have to accept that not all structural features can be considered in every code.

We present a tentative catalogue of synthetic experiments. These are designed to isolate different aspects of lateral heterogeneity of the Earth's interior and investigate their impact on vertical and horizontal surface displacements, geocenter and polar motion, gravity, sea-level change and stress. The study serves as a follow up of the successful benchmarks of Spada et al. (2011) and Martinec et al. (2018) on 1D earth models and the sea-level equation. The study was initiated by the PALSEA-SERCE Workshop in 2021 (Austermann and Simms, 2022) and benefits from discussions inside different SCAR-INSTANT subcommittees, the IAG Joint Study Group 3.1 “Geodetic, Seismic and Geodynamic Constraints on Glacial Isostatic Adjustment", the IAG Subcommission 3.4 “Cryospheric Deformation" and PALSEA.

References:

Austermann, J., Simms, A., 2022 (in press). Unraveling the complex relationship between solid Earth deformation and ice sheet change. PAGES Mag., 30(1). doi:10.22498/pages.30.1.14

Martinec, Z., Klemann, V., van der Wal, W., Riva, R. E. M., Spada, G., Sun, Y., Melini, D., Kachuck, S. B., Barletta, V., Simon, K., A, G., James, T. S., 2018. A benchmark study of numerical implementations of the sea level equation in GIA modelling. Geophys. J. Int., 215:389-414. doi:10.1093/gji/ggy280

Spada, G., Barletta, V. R., Klemann, V., Riva, R. E. M., Martinec, Z., Gasperini, P., Lund, B., Wolf, D., Vermeersen, L. L. A., King, M. A. (2011). A benchmark study for glacial isostatic adjustment codes. Geophys. J. Int., 185:106-132. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.04952.x

How to cite: Klemann, V., Austermann, J., Bagge, M., Barlow, N., Freymueller, J., Huang, P., Ivins, E. R., Lloyd, A., Martinec, Z., Milne, G., Rovere, A., Steffen, H., Steffen, R., van der Wal, W., Yousefi, M., and Zhong, S.: Benchmark of numerical GIA codes capable of laterally heterogeneous earth structures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1447, 2022.

EGU22-1479 | Presentations | G3.3

Peripheral and near field relative sea-level predictions using GIA models with 3D and regionally adapted 1D viscosity structures 

Meike Bagge, Volker Klemann, Bernhard Steinberger, Milena Latinovic, and Maik Thomas

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) describes the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to ice-sheet and ocean loading. GIA models determine the relative sea-level based on the viscoelastic deformations of the Earth interior including self-gravitation due to the loading of the water redistribution between ocean and ice and rotational effects. Choosing an Earth structure that adequately reflects the viscoelastic behavior of a region remains a challenge. For a specific region, the viscosity stratification can be inferred from present-day geodetic measurements like sea-level, gravity change and surface displacements or from paleo observations of former sea level. Here, we use a suite of geodynamically constrained 3D Earth structures that are derived from seismic tomography models and create regionally adapted 1D Earth structures to investigate to what extent regional, radially symmetric structures are able to reproduce the solid Earth response of a laterally varying structure. We discuss sea-level variations during the deglaciation in the near field (beneath the former ice sheet) and peripheral regions (surrounding the ice sheet) with focus on North America and Antarctica as well as Oregon and Patagonia. The suite of 3D Earth structures vary in transfer functions from seismic velocity to viscosity, i.e., in Arrhenius law and viscosity contrast between upper mantle and transition zone. We investigate how the relative sea-level predictions of the model suite members are affected due to the simplification of the Earth structure from 3D to 1D.

In general, our results support previous studies showing that 1D models in peripheral regions are not able to reproduce the 3D models’ predictions, because the response depends on the deformational behavior beneath the adjacent ice sheet and the local structure (superposition). Furthermore, the analysis of the model suite members shows different response behaviors for the 1D and 3D cases, e.g., suite members with weaker dependence of viscosity on seismic velocity can predict lowest RSL for the 3D case, but largest RSL for the 1D case. This indicates the relevance of the 3D structure in peripheral regions. 1D models in the near field are more capable to reproduce 3D model response behavior. But also here, deviations indicate that the lateral variations in the Earth structure beneath the ice sheet influence local relative sea-level predictions. 

How to cite: Bagge, M., Klemann, V., Steinberger, B., Latinovic, M., and Thomas, M.: Peripheral and near field relative sea-level predictions using GIA models with 3D and regionally adapted 1D viscosity structures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1479, 2022.

Further understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet responses to global climate changes requires an accurate and continuous reconstruction of the AIS changes. However, the erosive nature of ice-sheet expansion and sea-level drop and the difficulty of accessing much of Antarctica make it difficult to obtain field-based evidence of ice-sheet and sea-level changes before the Last Glacial Maximum. Limited sedimentary records from the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica demonstrate that the sea level of Marine Isotope Stage 3 was close to the present level despite the global sea-level drop lower than −40 m. Although previous GIA-derived sea levels hardly explain these sea-level observations, we demonstrate glacial isostatic adjustment modeling with refined Antarctic Ice Sheet loading histories. Our experiments reveal that the Indian Ocean sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet would have been required to experience excess ice loads before the Last Glacial Maximum in order to explain the observed sea-level highstands during Marine Isotope Stage 3. We also conduct a sensitivity test of the small Northern American Ice Sheet during Marine Isotope Stage 3, suggesting that this small ice sheet is not enough to achieve sea-level highstands during Marine Isotope Stage 3 in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica. As such, we suggest that the Indian Ocean sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet reached its maximum thickness before the global Last Glacial Maximum.
 
Reference
Ishiwa, T., Okuno, J., and Suganuma, Y., 2021. Excess ice loads in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica during the last glacial period. Geology, 49, 1182–1186. https://doi.org/10.1130/g48830.1

How to cite: Ishiwa, T., Okuno, J., and Suganuma, Y.: Excess ice loads prior to the Last Glacial Maximum in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica derived from sea-level observations and GIA modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1568, 2022.

EGU22-1807 | Presentations | G3.3

Three-dimensional velocity variations due to ice mass changes in Greenland – Insights from a compressible glacial isostatic adjustment model 

Rebekka Steffen, Holger Steffen, Pingping Huang, Lev Tarasov, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, and Shfaqat A. Khan

The lithospheric thickness beneath and around Greenland varies from a few tens of kilometres in offshore regions to several tens of kilometres (up to 200 – 250 km) in land areas. But, due to different datasets and techniques applied in geophysical studies, there are large differences between the different geophysical lithosphere models. As an example, lithosphere models from seismological datasets show generally larger values (above 100 km), while models using gravity or thermal datasets tend to be thinner (values mostly below 100 km). To model the deformation associated with the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet a detailed lithosphere model is required. Nevertheless, seismologically obtained lithosphere models are the ones usually applied in these so-called glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. Besides, GIA models can be used to provide additional constraints on the lithospheric thickness.

Results from most 3D GIA models are compared to observed vertical velocities only, while horizontal velocities are known to be sensitive to the lateral variations of the Earth (e.g., lithospheric thickness). But, horizontal velocities from incompressible GIA models, which are commonly used, are not suitable due to the neglect of material parameter changes related to the dilatation. Compressible GIA models in turn can provide more accurate estimates of the horizontal and vertical viscoelastic deformations induced by ice-mass changes. Here, we use a variety of lithospheric thickness models, obtained from gravity, thermal, and seismological datasets, in a three-dimensional compressible GIA Earth model. The GIA model will be constructed using the finite-element software ABAQUS (Huang et al., under review in GJI) and applying recent ice history models Huy3 and GLAC-GR2a for Greenland in combination with the Little Ice Age deglaciation model by Kjeldsen et al. (2015). We will compare various lithosphere models, including their impact on the modelled 3D velocity field, and compare these against independent GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) observations.

References:

Huang, P., Steffen, R., Steffen, H., Klemann, V., van der Wal, W., Reusen, J., Wu, P., Tanaka, Y., Martinec, Z., Thomas, M. (under review in GJI): A finite element approach to modelling Glacial Isostatic Adjustment on three-dimensional compressible earth models. Geophysical Journal International. Under review.

Kjeldsen, K., Korsgaard, N., Bjørk, A. et al. (2015): Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900. Nature 528, 396–400, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16183.

How to cite: Steffen, R., Steffen, H., Huang, P., Tarasov, L., Kjeldsen, K. K., and Khan, S.: Three-dimensional velocity variations due to ice mass changes in Greenland – Insights from a compressible glacial isostatic adjustment model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1807, 2022.

EGU22-4475 | Presentations | G3.3

The effect of uncertain historical ice information on GIA modelling 

Reyko Schachtschneider, Jan Saynisch-Wagner, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Maik Thomas

When inferring mantle viscosity by modelling the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) a necessary constraint is the external forcing by surface loading. Such forcing is usually provided by a glaciation history, where the mass-conserving sea-level changes are considered solving the sea-level equation. The uncertainties of glaciation history reconstructions are quite large and the choice of a specific history strongly influences the deformation response obtained by GIA modelling. The reason is that any history is usually based on a certain Earth rheology, and mantle viscosity inversions using such models tend to resemble the viscosity structure used for the glaciation history (Schachtschneider et al., 2022, in press). Furthermore, uncertainties of glaciation histories propagate into the respective GIA modelling results. However, to quantify the impact of glaciation history on GIA modelling remains a challenge.

In this study we investigate the effect of uncertainties in glaciation histories on GIA modelling. Using a particle-filter approach we study the effect of spatial and temporal variations in ice distribution as well as the effect of total ice mass. We quantify the effects on a one-dimensional viscosity stratification and derive measures to which extent changes in sea-level pattern and surface deformation depend on variations in ice loading.

 

References:

Schachtschneider, R., Saynisch-Wagner, J., Klemann, V., Bagge, M., Thomas, M. 2021. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2021-22

How to cite: Schachtschneider, R., Saynisch-Wagner, J., Klemann, V., Bagge, M., and Thomas, M.: The effect of uncertain historical ice information on GIA modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4475, 2022.

EGU22-4969 | Presentations | G3.3 | Highlight

Sea level response to Quaternary erosion and deposition in Scandinavia 

Gustav Pallisgaard-Olesen, Vivi Kathrine Pedersen, Natalya Gomez, and Jerry X. Mitrovica

The landscape in western Scandinavia has undergone dramatic changes through numerous glaciations during the Quaternary. These changes in topography and in the volumes of offshore sediment deposition, have caused significant isostatic adjustments and local sea-level changes, owning to erosional unloading and de- positional loading of the lithosphere. This geomorphic mass redistribution also has the potential to perturb the geoid, resulting in additional sea-level changes. However, the combined sea-level response from these processes is yet to be investigated in detail for Scandinavia.

In this study we estimate the total sea-level change from i) late Pliocene- Quaternary onshore bedrock erosion and erosion of sediments on the coastal shelf and ii) the subsequent deposition in the Norwegian Sea, northern North Sea and the Danish region. We use a gravitationally self-consistent global sea- level model that includes the full viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to surface loading and unloading. In addition to total late Pliocene-Quaternary geomorphic mass redistribution, we also estimate transient sea-level changes related specifically to the two latest glacial cycles.

We utilize existing observations of offshore sediment thicknesses of glacial origin, and combine these with estimates of onshore glacial erosion and of erosion on the inner shelf. Based on these estimates, we define mass redistribution and construct a preglacial landscape setting as well as approximate a geomorphic history of the last two glacial cycles.

Our results show that erosion and deposition has caused a sea-level fall of ∼50-100 m along the southern coast of Norway during the last two glacial cycles reaching ∼120 m in the offshore Skagerak region. The total relative sea-level fall during the Quaternary reach as much as ∼350 m in Skagerak. This highlights the importance of accounting for geomorphic sediment redistribution in glacial isostatic-adjustment modelling when interpreting ice sheet histories and glacial rebound.

How to cite: Pallisgaard-Olesen, G., Pedersen, V. K., Gomez, N., and Mitrovica, J. X.: Sea level response to Quaternary erosion and deposition in Scandinavia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4969, 2022.

EGU22-5146 | Presentations | G3.3

The use of Non-Linear Geometry (NLGEOM) and gravity loading in flat and spherical Finite Element models of Abaqus for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) 

Jesse Reusen, Pingping Huang, Rebekka Steffen, Holger Steffen, Caroline van Calcar, Bart Root, and Wouter van der Wal

In geodynamic studies, most Finite-Element (FE) models in the commercial FE software Abaqus use elastic foundations at internal boundaries. This method works well for incompressible and so-called material-compressible material parameters but it is unclear if it works sufficiently well for implementing compressibility, especially in a 3D spherical model. The latter is of importance in investigations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A possible alternative method is based on a combination of explicit gravity loading with non-linear geometry (NLGEOM parameter in Abaqus) (Hampel et al., 2019). This method would remove the need to make a stress transformation to get the correct GIA stresses, and automatically accounts for the change in internal buoyancy forces that arises when allowing for compression, according to the Abaqus Documentation. We compared the method for (in)compressible flat (~half-space) FE models with existing numerical half-space and spherical (in)compressible codes and tested the applicability of this method in a spherical FE model. We confirm that this method works for multi-layer incompressible flat FE models. We furthermore notice that horizontal displacement rates of incompressible flat FE models match those of spherical incompressible GIA models below the current GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurement accuracy of 0.2-0.3 mm/a, but only for ice sheets that are smaller than 450 km in extent. For compressible models, disagreements in the vertical displacement rates are found between the flat NLGEOM model and the compressible Normal Mode code ICEAGE (Kaufmann, 2004). An extension of the NLGEOM-gravity method to a spherical FE model, where gravity must be implemented in the form of body forces combined with initial stress, leads to a divergence of the solution when viscous behaviour is turned on. We thus conclude that the applicability of the NLGEOM method is so far limited to flat FE models, and in GIA investigations for flat models the applicability further depends on the size of the load (ice sheet, glacier).

References:

Hampel, A., Lüke, J., Krause, T., & Hetzel, R., 2019. Finite-element modelling of glacial isostatic ad-
justment (GIA): Use of elastic foundations at material boundaries versus the geometrically non-linear
formulation, Computers & geosciences, 122, 1–14.

Kaufmann, G. (2004). Program Package ICEAGE, Version 2004. Manuscript. Institut für Geophysik der Universität Göttingen.

How to cite: Reusen, J., Huang, P., Steffen, R., Steffen, H., van Calcar, C., Root, B., and van der Wal, W.: The use of Non-Linear Geometry (NLGEOM) and gravity loading in flat and spherical Finite Element models of Abaqus for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5146, 2022.

EGU22-6013 | Presentations | G3.3 | Highlight

A finite element approach to modelling Glacial Isostatic Adjustment on three-dimensional compressible earth models 

Pingping Huang, Rebekka Steffen, Holger Steffen, Volker Klemann, Wouter van der Wal, Jesse Reusen, Yoshiyuki Tanaka, Zdeněk Martinec, and Maik Thomas

A new finite element method called FEMIBSF is presented that is capable of modelling Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) on compressible earth models with three-dimensional (3D) structures. This method takes advantage of the classical finite element techniques to calculate the deformational and gravitational responses to the driving forces of GIA (including body forces and pressures on Earth’s surface and core-mantle boundary, namely CMB). Following Wu (2004) and Wong & Wu (2019), we implement the GIA driving forces in the commercial finite element software Abaqus and solve the equation of motion in an iterative manner. Different from those two studies, all formulations and calculations in this study are not associated with spherical harmonics but are performed in the spatial domain. Due to this, FEMIBSF is free from expanding the load, displacement, and potential into spherical harmonics with the short-wavelength components (of high degree and order) neglected. We compare the loading Love numbers (LLNs) generated by FEMIBSF with their analytical solutions for homogeneous models and numerical solutions for layered models calculated by the normal-mode approach/code, ICEAGE (Kaufmann, 2004), the iterative body force approach/code, IBF (Wong & Wu, 2019) and the spectral-finite element approach/code, VILMA-C (Martinec, 2000; Tanaka et al., 2011). We find that FEMIBSF agrees well with analytical and numerical LLN results of these codes. In addition, we show how to compute the degree-1 deformation directly in the spatial domain with the finite element approach and how to implement it in a GIA model using Abaqus. Finally, we demonstrate that the CMB pressure related to the gravitational potential change in the fluid core only influences the long-wavelength surface displacement and potential such as the degree-2 component.

 

References

 

Kaufmann, G. (2004). Program Package ICEAGE, Version 2004. Manuscript. Institut für Geophysik der Universität Göttingen.

 

Martinec, Z. (2000). Spectral–finite element approach to three-dimensional viscoelastic relaxation in a spherical earth. Geophysical Journal International142(1), 117-141.

 

Tanaka, Y., Klemann, V., Martinec, Z. & Riva, R. E. M. (2011). Spectral-finite element approach to viscoelastic relaxation in a spherical compressible Earth: application to GIA modelling. Geophysical Journal International184(1), 220-234.

 

Wong, M. C. & Wu, P. (2019). Using commercial finite-element packages for the study of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment on a compressible self-gravitating spherical earth–1: harmonic loads. Geophysical Journal International217(3), 1798-1820.

 

Wu, P. (2004). Using commercial finite element packages for the study of earth deformations, sea levels and the state of stress. Geophysical Journal International, 158(2), 401-408.

 
 
 

How to cite: Huang, P., Steffen, R., Steffen, H., Klemann, V., van der Wal, W., Reusen, J., Tanaka, Y., Martinec, Z., and Thomas, M.: A finite element approach to modelling Glacial Isostatic Adjustment on three-dimensional compressible earth models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6013, 2022.

EGU22-6236 | Presentations | G3.3

Identifying geographical patterns of transient deformation in the geological sea level record 

Karen M. Simon, Riccardo E. M. Riva, and Taco Broerse

In this study, we examine the effect of transient mantle creep on the prediction of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signals. Specifically, we compare predictions of relative sea level change from GIA from a set of Earth models in which transient creep parameters are varied in a simple Burgers model to a reference case with a Maxwell viscoelastic rheology. The model predictions are evaluated in two ways: first, relative to each other to quantify the effect of parameter variation, and second, for their ability to reproduce well-constrained sea level records from selected locations. Both the resolution and geographic location of the relative sea level observations determine whether the data can distinguish between model cases. Model predictions are most sensitive to the inclusion of transient mantle deformation in regions that are near-field and peripheral relative to former ice sheets. This sensitivity appears particularly true along the North American west coast in the region of the former Cordilleran Ice Sheet, which experienced rapid sea-level fall following deglaciation between 14-12 kyr BP. Relative to the Maxwell case, Burgers models better reproduce this rapid phase of regional postglacial sea level fall. As well, computed goodness-of-fit values in this region show a clear preference for models where transient deformation is present in the whole or lower mantle, and for models where the rigidity of the Kelvin element is weakened relative to the rigidity of the Maxwell element. In contrast, model predictions of relative sea-level change in the far-field show little or weak sensitivity to the inclusion of transient deformation.

How to cite: Simon, K. M., Riva, R. E. M., and Broerse, T.: Identifying geographical patterns of transient deformation in the geological sea level record, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6236, 2022.

EGU22-6829 | Presentations | G3.3

Dependence of GIA-induced gravity change in Antarctica on viscoelastic Earth structure 

Yoshiya Irie, Jun'ichi Okuno, Takeshige Ishiwa, Koichiro Doi, and Yoichi Fukuda

The Antarctic ice mass loss is accelerating due to recent global warming. Changes in Antarctic ice mass have been observed as the gravity change by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites. However, the gravity signal includes both the component of the ice mass change and the component of the solid Earth response to surface mass change (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, GIA). Evaluating the GIA-induced gravity change requires viscoelastic Earth structure and ice history from the last deglaciation.

Antarctica is characterized by lateral heterogeneity of seismic velocity structure. West Antarctica shows relatively low seismic velocities, suggesting low viscosity regions in the upper mantle. On the other hand, East Antarctica shows relatively high seismic velocities, suggesting thick lithosphere. Here we examine the sensitivities of GIA-induced gravity change in Antarctica to upper mantle viscosity and lithosphere thickness using spherically symmetric Earth models.

Results indicate that the gravity field change depends on both the upper mantle viscosity profile and the lithosphere thickness. In particular, the long-wavelength gravity field changes become dominant in the adoption of viscoelastic models with a low viscosity layer beneath the elastic lithosphere. The same trend is also shown in the adoption of viscoelastic models with a thick lithosphere, and there is a trade-off between the structure of the low viscosity layer and the thickness of the lithosphere. This trade-off may reduce the effect of the lateral variations in Earth structure beneath Antarctica on the estimate of Antarctic ice sheet mass change.

How to cite: Irie, Y., Okuno, J., Ishiwa, T., Doi, K., and Fukuda, Y.: Dependence of GIA-induced gravity change in Antarctica on viscoelastic Earth structure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6829, 2022.

EGU22-7609 | Presentations | G3.3

Deglaciation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet modeled with the coupled solid Earth – ice sheet model system PISM-VILMA 

Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest and most uncertain potential contributor to future sea level rise. Understanding involved feedback mechanisms require physically-based models. Confidence in future projections can be improved by models that can reproduce past ice sheet changes, in particular over the last deglaciation. The complex interaction between ice, bedrock and sea level plays an important role in ice sheet instability with a large variety of characteristic response time scales dependent on the heterogeneous Earth structure underneath Antarctica and the ice sheet dynamics.

We have coupled the VIscoelastic Lithosphere and MAntle model (VILMA) to the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM v2.0, www.pism.io) and ran simulations over the last two glacial cycles. In this framework, VILMA considers both viscoelastic deformations of the solid Earth by considering a three-dimensional rheology and a gravitationally self-consistent mass redistribution in the ocean by solving for the sea-level equation. PISM solves for the stress balance for a changing bed topography, which is updated in 100 years coupling intervals and which can directly affect ice sheet flow and grounding line dynamics.

Here, we show first results of coupled PISM-VILMA simulations scored against a database of geological constraints including sea level index points. We discuss sensitivities of model parameters and climatic forcing in preparation for a larger parameter ensemble study. This project is part of the German Climate Modeling Initiative PalMod.

 

How to cite: Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., Bagge, M., and Klemann, V.: Deglaciation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet modeled with the coupled solid Earth – ice sheet model system PISM-VILMA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7609, 2022.

EGU22-7906 | Presentations | G3.3

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Antarctica : a rheological study 

Alexandre Boughanemi and Anthony Mémin

 The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is the largest ice sheet on Earth that has known important mass 
 changes during the last 20 kyrs. These changes deform the Earth and modify its gravity field, 
 a process known as Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). GIA is directly influenced by the mechanical
 properties and internal structure of the Earth, and is monitored using Global Navigation Satellite 
 System positioning or gravity measurements. However, GIA in Antarctica remains poorly constrained  
 due to the cumulative effect of past and present ice-mass changes, the unknown history of the past
 ice-mass change, and the uncertainties of the mechanical properties of the Earth. The viscous 
 deformation due to GIA is usually modeled using a Maxwell rheology. However, other geophysical
 processes employ Andrade (tidal deformation) or Burgers (post-seismic deformation) laws that could 
 result in a more rapid response of the Earth. We investigate the effect of using these
 different rheology laws to model GIA-induced deformation in Antarctica.  

Employing the ALMA and TABOO softwares, we use the Love number and Green functions formalism to
compute the surface motion and the gravity changes induced by the past and present ice-mass redistributions.
We use the elastic properties and the radial structure of the preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) and the
viscosity profile given by Hanyk (1999). The deformation is computed for the three rheological laws mentioned
above using ICE-6G and elevation changes from ENVISAT (2002-2010) to represent the past and present changes
of the AIS, respectively. 

We obtain that the three rheological laws lead to significant Earth response within a 20 kyrs time interval since
the beginning of the ice-mass change. The differences are the largest between Maxwell and Burgers rheologies
during the 500 years following the beginning of the surface-mass change. Regarding the response to present
changes in Antarctica, the largest discrepancies are obtained in regions with the greatest current melting rates,
namely Thwaites and Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica. Uplift rates computed twelve years after the end of
the present melting using Burgers and Andrade rheologies are five and two times larger than those obtained
using Maxwell, respectively. 

How to cite: Boughanemi, A. and Mémin, A.: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Antarctica : a rheological study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7906, 2022.

EGU22-8112 | Presentations | G3.3

Investigating the Sensitivity of North Sea Glacial Isostatic Adjustment during the Last Interglacial to the Penultimate Deglaciation of Global Ice Sheets 

Oliver Pollard, Natasha Barlow, Lauren Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy Ely, and Lachlan Astfalck

The Last Interglacial (LIG; MIS 5e) period (130 - 115 ka) saw the last time in Earth’s history that polar temperatures reached 3 - 5 °C above pre-industrial values causing the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to shrink to sizes smaller than those of today. Similar polar temperature increases are predicted in the coming decades and the LIG period could therefore help to shed light on ice-sheet and sea-level responses to a warming world. 

LIG estuarine sediments preserved in the North Sea region are promising study sites for identification of the Antarctic ice sheet's relative contribution to LIG sea level, as well as for the reconstruction of both the magnitude and rate of LIG sea-level change during the interglacial. For these purposes, sea-level records in the region must be corrected for the impacts of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) which is primarily a consequence of two components: the evolution of terrestrial ice masses during the Penultimate Deglaciation (MIS 6), predominantly the near-field Eurasian ice sheet, and the viscoelastic structure of the solid Earth. 

The relative paucity of geological constraints on characteristics of the MIS 6 Eurasian ice sheet makes it challenging to evaluate its effect on sea level in the North Sea region. In order to model the Eurasian ice extent, thickness, and volume during the Penultimate Deglaciation we use a simple ice sheet model (Gowan et al. 2016), calibrated against models of the Last Glacial Maximum. By employing a gravitationally consistent sea-level model (Kendall et al. 2005), we generate a large ensemble of GIA outputs that spans the uncertainty in parameters controlling both the viscoelastic earth model and the evolution of global ice sheets during the Penultimate Deglaciation. By performing spatial sensitivity analysis with this ensemble, we are able to demonstrate the relative importance of each parameter in controlling North Sea GIA. Our comprehensive approach to exploring uncertainties in both the global ice sheet evolution and solid earth response provides significant advances in our understanding of LIG sea level.

How to cite: Pollard, O., Barlow, N., Gregoire, L., Gomez, N., Cartelle, V., Ely, J., and Astfalck, L.: Investigating the Sensitivity of North Sea Glacial Isostatic Adjustment during the Last Interglacial to the Penultimate Deglaciation of Global Ice Sheets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8112, 2022.

EGU22-8350 | Presentations | G3.3 | Highlight

Reconstructing large scale differential subsidence in the Netherlands using a spatio-temporal 3D paleo-groundwater level interpolation 

Kim de Wit, Roderik S.W. van de Wal, and Kim M. Cohen

Subsidence is a land use problem in the western and northern Netherlands, especially where both shallow soft soil subsidence and deeper subsidence components, including glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), add up. The aim of this study is to improve the estimation of the GIA component within the total subsidence signal across the Netherlands during the Holocene, using coastal plain paleo-water level markers. Throughout the Holocene, the GIA induced subsidence in the Netherlands has been spatially and temporally variant, as shown by previous studies that used GIA modelling and geological relative sea-level rise reconstructions. From the latter work, many field data points are available based on radiocarbon dated coastal basal peats of different age and vertical position. These reveal Holocene relative sea-level rise to have been strongest in the Wadden Sea in the Northern Netherlands. This matches post-glacial GIA subsidence (forebulge collapse) as modelled for the Southern North Sea, being located in the near-field of Scandinavian and British former ice masses.

In this study, geological data analysis of RSL and other paleo-water level data available from the Dutch coastal plain for the Holocene period is considered in addition. The analysis takes the form of designing and executing a 3D interpolation (kriging with a trend: KT), where paleo-water level Z(x,y,age) is predicted and the field-data points are the observations (Age, X, Y and Z as knowns). We use a spatio-temporal 3D grid that covers the Dutch coastal plain, and reproduces and unifies earlier constructed sea level curves and high-resolution sampled individual sites (e.g. Rotterdam). The function describing the trend part of the interpolation separates linear and non-linear components of relative water level rise, i.e.: long-term background subsidence and shorter-term GIA subsidence signal and postglacial water level rise. The kriging part then processes remaining subregional patterns. The combined reconstruction thus yields a spatially continuous parameterization of regional trends that (i) allows to separate subsidence from water level rise terms, and (ii) is produced independently of GIA modelling to enable cross-comparison. Results are presented for the coastal plain of the Netherlands ([SW] Zeeland – Rotterdam – Holland – Wadden Sea – Groningen [NE]). The percentage of the total coastal-prism accommodation space that appears due to subsidence, from the south to the north of the study area increases by 20%. Holocene-averaged subsidence rates from the first analysis ranged from ca. 0.1 m/kyr (Zeeland) to 0.4 m/kyr (Groningen), which is 5-10 times larger than present-day GPS/GNSS-measured rates.

The research presented in this abstract is part of the project Living on soft soils: subsidence and society (grantnr.: NWA.1160.18.259). 

How to cite: de Wit, K., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Cohen, K. M.: Reconstructing large scale differential subsidence in the Netherlands using a spatio-temporal 3D paleo-groundwater level interpolation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8350, 2022.

EGU22-9485 | Presentations | G3.3

An adaptive-triangular fully coupled 3D ice-sheet–sea-level model 

Jorjo Bernales, Tijn Berends, and Roderik van de Wal

Regional sea-level change and the deformation of the solid Earth can lead to important feedbacks on the long- and short-term evolution and stability of ice sheets. A rigorous manner of accounting for these feedbacks in model-based ice-sheet reconstructions and projections, is to establish a two-way coupling between an ice-sheet and a sea-level model. However, the individual requirements of each of these two components such as a global, long ice sheet load history or a high ice-model resolution over critical sectors of an ice sheet are at present not easy to combine in terms of computational feasibility. Here, we present a coupling between the ice-sheet model UFEMISM, which solves a range of approximations of the stress balance on a dynamically adaptive irregular triangular mesh, and the gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model SELEN, which incorporates the glacial isostatic adjustment for a radially symmetric, viscoelastic and rotating Earth, including coastline migration. We show global simulations over glacial cycles, including the North American, Eurasian, Greenland, and Antarctic ice sheets, and compare its performance and results against commonly used alternatives.

How to cite: Bernales, J., Berends, T., and van de Wal, R.: An adaptive-triangular fully coupled 3D ice-sheet–sea-level model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9485, 2022.

EGU22-9968 | Presentations | G3.3

Interacting melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks allow for distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet 

Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Interacting feedbacks play an important role in governing the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming. Here we study the interaction between the positive melt-elevation feedback and the negative feedback from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and how they affect the ice volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet on long time scales. We therefore use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) coupled to a simple solid Earth model (Lingle-Clark) in idealized step-warming experiments. Our results suggest that for warming levels above 2°C, Greenland could become essentially ice-free on the long-term, mainly as a result of surface melting and acceleration of ice flow. The negative GIA feedback can mitigate ice losses and promote a partial recovery of the ice volume.

Exploring the full factorial parameter space which determines the relative strength of the two feedbacks reveals that four distinct dynamic regimes are possible: from stabilization, via recovery and self-sustained oscillations to the irreversible collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet. In the recovery regime an initial ice loss is reversed and the ice volume stabilized at 61-93% of the present day volume. For certain combinations of temperature increase, atmospheric lapse rate and Earth mantle viscosity, the interaction of the GIA feedback and the melt-elevation feedback leads to self-sustained, long-term oscillations in ice-sheet volume with oscillation periods of tens to hundreds of thousands of years and oscillation amplitudes between 15-70% of present-day ice volume. This oscillatory regime reveals a possible mode of internal climatic variability in the Earth system on time scales on the order of 100,000 years that may be excited by or synchronized with orbital forcing or interact with glacial cycles and other slow modes of variability.

How to cite: Zeitz, M., Haacker, J. M., Donges, J. F., Albrecht, T., and Winkelmann, R.: Interacting melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks allow for distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9968, 2022.

Geodetic time series from autonomous GNSS systems distributed across Antarctica are revealing unexpected patterns and startling rates of crustal deformation due to GIA.  Linked with seismic mapping and derived rheological properties of the Antarctic crust and mantle, and with new modeling capabilities, our understanding of the timescales of GIA response to ice sheet change is swiftly advancing.  Rapid GIA response allows for cryosphere-solid earth interactions that can alter ice sheet behavior on decadal and centennial timescales.  Continued progress in understanding how such feedbacks may influence future contributions of polar ice sheets to global sea level change requires continuing and expanding our geodetic observations. What frameworks can lead to implementation of this goal?  U.S. and international science vision documents pertaining to geodynamics, the changing cryosphere and sea level, all point to international collaborative efforts as the way to achieve ambitious science goals and extend observational capacities in polar regions.  SCAR research programmes facilitated the network vision and collaborative relations that led to the POLENET (POLar Earth observing NETwork) network of geophysical and geodetic instruments during the International Polar Year 2007-08. Can the SCAR INSTANT programme provide a framework for collaborative initiatives between national Antarctic programs to form a sustainable model to support acquisition of the observations required to meet community science objectives?  Let’s consider the ‘grass roots’ actions by the science community needed to push international, interdisciplinary science frameworks forward.

How to cite: Wilson, T. J.: GNSS Observations of Antarctic Crustal Deformation – International Framework for Future Networks?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10610, 2022.

EGU22-10884 | Presentations | G3.3

Effect of Icelandic hotspot on Mantle viscosity in southeast Greenland 

Valentina R. Barletta, Wouter van der Wal, Andrea Bordoni, and Shfaqat Abbas Khan

Recent studies suggest the hotspot currently under Iceland was located beneath eastern Greenland at ~40 Ma BP and that the upwelling of hot material from the Iceland plume towards Greenland is ongoing. A warm upper mantle has a low viscosity, which in turn causes the solid Earth to rebound much faster to deglaciation. In the area of the Kangerlussuaq glacier, a large GPS velocities residual after removing predicted purely elastic deformations caused by present-day ice loss suggests the possibility of such fast rebound to little ice age (LIA) deglaciation. Here we investigate the lithospheric thickness and the mantle viscosity structure beneath SE-Greenland by means of model predictions of solid Earth deformation driven by a low viscosity mantle excited by the LIA deglaciation to the present day. From the comparison of such modeled deformations with the GPS residual, we conclude that 1) a rather thick lithosphere is preferred (90-100 km) 2) and the upper mantle most likely has a viscosity that changes with depth. Assuming a two layer upper mantle, it is not well constrained which part of the upper mantle has to be low, with a preference for low viscosity in the deeper upper mantle.

To understand such results we implemented forward modelling with more realistic earth models, relying on improvements in seismic models, petrology and gravity data. This yields 3D viscosity maps that can be compared to inferences based on the 1D model and forms the basis for 3D GIA models. The conclusion based on the 1D model can be explained with 3D Earth models. In the area of the Kangerlussuaq glacier the seismic derived viscosities prefer a higher viscosity layer above a lower viscosity one. This stems from the slow decrease in viscosity with depth. The layer that is characterized as shallow upper mantle still contains shallow regions with low temperatures, while the deeper upper mantle reaches low viscosities. Generally, for GIA earth models the “higher above lower” viscosity layering is unusual. However, the analysis of the 1D model clearly shows this to be one of the preferred model regions, in combination with a large lithosphere thickness of 100 km. This is a notable result that draws attention to the importance of shallow layering in GIA models. 

How to cite: Barletta, V. R., van der Wal, W., Bordoni, A., and Khan, S. A.: Effect of Icelandic hotspot on Mantle viscosity in southeast Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10884, 2022.

EGU22-10942 | Presentations | G3.3

Separating of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) across Antarctica from GRACE/GRACE-FO observations via Independent Component Analysis (ICA) 

Tianyan Shi, Yoichi Fukuda, Koichiro Doi, and Jun’ichi Okuno

The redistribution of the near-surface solid Earth due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which is the ongoing response of the solid Earth due to changes in the ice-ocean load following the Last Glacial Maximum, has a direct impact on the inferred Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass balance from gravimetric data acquired during the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions.

However, sparse in-situ observation networks across Antarctica have led to the inability to effectively constrain the GIA effect. Here, we analyze the mass change patterns across Antarctica via independent component analysis (ICA), a statistics-based blind source separation method to extract signals from complex datasets, in an attempt to reduce uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects and improve understanding of AIS mass balance.

The results reveal that GIA signal could be directly separated from GRACE/GRACE-FO observations without introducing any external model.  Although the GIA signal cannot be completely isolated, the correlation coefficients between ICA-separated GIA, and the ICE-5G and ICE-6G models are 0.692 and 0.691, respectively. The study demonstrates the possibility of extracting GIA effects directly from GRACE/GRACE-FO observations.

How to cite: Shi, T., Fukuda, Y., Doi, K., and Okuno, J.: Separating of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) across Antarctica from GRACE/GRACE-FO observations via Independent Component Analysis (ICA), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10942, 2022.

EGU22-11569 | Presentations | G3.3

The influence of Earth’s hypsometry on global sea level through a glacial cycle and into the future 

Vivi Kathrine Pedersen, Natalya Gomez, Gustav Pallisgaard-Olesen, Julius Garbe, Andy Aschwanden, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Jerry Mitrovica

Earth’s topography and bathymetry is shaped by a complex interplay between solid-Earth processes that deform the Earth from within and the surface processes that modify the outer shape of the Earth. At the surface, an ultimate baselevel set by global sea level marks the defining transition from erosion to deposition. Over geological time scales, this baselevel has resulted in a distinct hypsometric distribution (distribution of surface area with elevation), with the highest concentration of surface area focused in a narrow elevation range near present-day sea level.

This particular feature in Earth’s hypsometry makes the global land fraction very sensitive to changes in sea level. Indeed, a sea-level change will result in a significant change in the land fraction as dictated by the hypsometric distribution, thereby modulating the very same sea-level change. However, it remains unexplored exactly how sea-level changes have modified the global land fraction over past glacial cycles and into the future.

Here we analyse how Earth’s hypsometry has changed over the last glacial cycle as large ice sheets waxed and waned particularly in Scandinavia and North America. These changes in global ice volume resulted in a significant global excursion in sea level, modulated regionally by solid-Earth deformation, gravitational effects, and effects from Earth’s rotation. These changes modified Earth’s hypsometry, and therefore the global land fraction at any given time. Consequently, we can map out how Earth’s hypsometry has influenced global mean sea level (GMSL) over time. To examine this relationship between Earth’s hypsometry and sea level further, we look to the deep future, to a scenario where both the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Ice Sheets will melt away completely over multi-millennial timescales. This scenario is not meant to represent a realistic future scenario per se, but it allows us to define the hypsometric GMSL correction needed for any GMSL that the Earth has experienced recently or will experience in the future.

How to cite: Pedersen, V. K., Gomez, N., Pallisgaard-Olesen, G., Garbe, J., Aschwanden, A., Winkelmann, R., and Mitrovica, J.: The influence of Earth’s hypsometry on global sea level through a glacial cycle and into the future, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11569, 2022.

EGU22-12689 | Presentations | G3.3

Improving past and future relative sea-level constraints for the Norwegian coast 

Thomas R. Lakeman, F. Chantel Nixon, Anders Romundset, Matthew J.R. Simpson, John Inge Svendsen, Kristian Vasskog, Stein Bondevik, Glenn Milne, and Lev Tarasov

New research aims to improve relative sea-level (RSL) projections for the Norwegian coast. The main objectives are to: i) collect observations of past RSL changes, ranging from the end of the last ice age to the last century, ii) develop a high-quality database of post-glacial sea-level index points (SLIPs) for the Norwegian coast, and to iii) improve our understanding of past and future vertical land motion using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling. To now, our collection of new empirical data has focussed on three significant, but enigmatic RSL histories that are not adequately reproduced in existing GIA models: very recent stillstands and transgressions documented by historical tide gauge records, rapid transgressions during the early- to mid-Holocene Tapes period, and abrupt transgressions during the latest Pleistocene Younger Dryas chronozone. Ongoing field sampling is focussed on developing high-resolution RSL trends from salt marshes, isolation basins, and raised beaches, using multiple biostratigraphic and geochemical proxies (i.e. micropaleontology, macrofossils, x-ray fluorescence, C/N) and dating techniques (i.e. Pb-210, Cs-137, C-14, tephrochronology, geochemical markers). Results from various localities spanning the Norwegian coast provide robust constraints for the timing and rate of RSL change during the Younger Dryas and Tapes chronozones. Additional results providing new estimates of very recent RSL trends in southwest Norway are presented by Holthuis et al. (Late Holocene sea-level change and storms in southwestern Norway based on new data from intertidal basins and salt marshes; Session CL5.2.2). These new and emerging constraints are being integrated into a post-glacial RSL database that incorporates high-quality data from the entire Norwegian coastline. Over 1000 SLIPs have been assembled from published studies. These existing data were updated using current radiocarbon calibration curves, high-resolution digital elevation models, new field observations, and new quantitative estimates of relevant uncertainties. Ongoing GIA modelling is utilizing the new RSL database, a glaciological model that freely simulates ice sheet changes, as well as geodetic and ice margin chronology constraints, to develop rigorous uncertainty estimates for present and future GIA along the Norwegian coast.

How to cite: Lakeman, T. R., Nixon, F. C., Romundset, A., Simpson, M. J. R., Svendsen, J. I., Vasskog, K., Bondevik, S., Milne, G., and Tarasov, L.: Improving past and future relative sea-level constraints for the Norwegian coast, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12689, 2022.

Uncertainty in present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) rates represent at least 44% of the total gravity-based ice mass balance signal over Antarctica. Meanwhile, physical couplings between solid Earth, sea level and ice dynamics enhance the dependency of the spatiotemporally varying GIA signal on 3D rheology. For example, the presence of low-viscosity mantle beneath melting marine-based ice sheet sectors such as the Amundsen Sea Embayment may delay or even prevent unstable grounding line retreat. Improved knowledge of upper mantle thermomechanical structure is therefore required to refine estimates of current and projected ice mass balance.

Here, we present a Bayesian inverse method for mapping shear wave velocities from high-resolution adjoint tomography into thermomechanical structure using a calibrated parameterisation of anelasticity at seismic frequency. We constrain the model using regional geophysical data sets containing information on upper mantle temperature, attenuation and viscosity structure. The Globally Adaptive Scaling Within Adaptive Metropolis (GASWAM) modification of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is utilised to allow efficient exploration of the multi-dimensional parameter space. Our treatment allows formal quantification of parameter covariances, and naturally permits us to propagate uncertainties in material parameters into uncertainty in thermomechanical structure.

We find that it is possible to improve agreement on steady state viscosity structure between tomographic models by approximately 30%, and reduce its uncertainty by an order of magnitude as compared to a forward-modelling approach. Direct access to temperature structure allows us to estimate lateral variations in lithospheric thickness, geothermal heat flow, and their associated uncertainties.

How to cite: Hazzard, J., Richards, F., Roberts, G., and Goes, S.: Reducing Uncertainty in Upper Mantle Rheology, Lithospheric Thickness and Geothermal Heat Flow Using a Bayesian Inverse Framework to Calibrate Experimental Parameterisations of Anelasticity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12967, 2022.

This article presents a comprehensive benchmark study for the newly updated and publicly available finite element code CitcomSVE for modeling dynamic deformation of a viscoelastic and incompressible planetary mantle in response to surface and tidal loading. A complete description of CitcomSVE’s finite element formulation including calculations of the sea-level change, polar wander, apparent center of mass motion, and removal of mantle net rotation is presented. The 3-D displacements and displacement rates and the gravitational potential anomalies are solved with CitcomSVE for three benchmark problems using different spatial and temporal resolutions: 1) surface loading of single harmonics, 2) degree-2 tidal loading, and 3) the ICE-6G GIA model. The solutions are compared with semi-analytical solutions for error analyses. The benchmark calculations demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of CitcomSVE. For example, for a typical ICE-6G GIA calculation with a 122-ky glaciation-deglaciation history, time increment of 100 years, and ~50 km (or ~0.5 degree) surface horizontal resolution, it takes ~4.5 hours on CPU 96 cores to complete with about 1% and 5% errors for displacements and displacement rates, respectively. Error analyses shows that CitcomSVE achieves a second order accuracy, but the errors are insensitive to temporal resolution. CitcomSVE achieves the parallel computation efficiency >75% for using up to 6,144 CPU cores on a parallel supercomputer. With its accuracy, computing efficiency and its open-source public availability, CitcomSVE is a powerful tool for modeling viscoelastic deformation of a planetary mantle in response to surface and tidal loading problems. 

How to cite: Zhong, S., Kang, K., Aa, G., and Qin, C.: CitcomSVE: A Three-dimensional Finite Element Software Package for Modeling Planetary Mantle’s Viscoelastic Deformation in Response to Surface and Tidal Loads, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13136, 2022.

EGU22-13323 | Presentations | G3.3

Mantle viscosity derived from geoid and different land uplift data in Greenland 

Mohammad Bagherbandi, Hadi Amin, Linsong Wang, and Masoud Shirazian

The Earth’s mass redistribution due to deglaciation and recent ice sheet melting causes changes in the Earth’s gravity field and vertical land motion in Greenland. The changes are because of ongoing mass redistribution and related elastic (on a short time scale) and viscoelastic (on time scales of a few thousands of years) responses. These signatures can be used to determine the mantle viscosity. In this study, we infer the mantle viscosity associated with the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and long-wavelength geoid beneath the Greenland lithosphere. The viscosity is determined based on a spatio-spectral analysis of the Earth’s gravity field and the land uplift rate in order to find the GIA-related gravity field. We used and evaluated different land uplift data, i.e. the vertical land motions obtained by the Greenland Global Positioning System (GPS) Network (GNET), GRACE and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) data. In addition, a  combined land uplift rate using the Kalman filtering technique is presented in this study. We extract the GIA-related gravity signals by filtering the other effects due to the deeper masses i.e. core-mantle (related to long-wavelengths) and topography (related to short-wavelengths). To do this, we applied correlation analysis to detect the best harmonic window. Finally, the mantle viscosity using the obtained GIA-related gravity field is estimated. Using different land uplift rates, one can obtain different GIA-related gravity fields. For example, different harmonic windows were obtained by employing different land uplift datasets, e.g. the truncated geoid model with a harmonic window between degrees 10 to 39 and 10 to 25 showed a maximum correlation with the GIA model ICE-6G (VM5a) and the combined land uplift rates, respectively. As shown in this study, the mantle viscosities of 1.6×1022 Pa s and 0.9×1022 Pa s for a depth of 200  to 650  km are obtained using ICE-6G (VM5a) model and the combined land uplift model, respectively, and the GIA-related gravity potential signal.

How to cite: Bagherbandi, M., Amin, H., Wang, L., and Shirazian, M.: Mantle viscosity derived from geoid and different land uplift data in Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13323, 2022.

EGU22-218 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Iron speciation throughout a karst pedosedimentary record in South of Italy 

Beatrice Giannetta, Michele Cassetta, Danilo Oliveira de Souza, Gino Mariotto, Giuliana Aquilanti, and Claudio Zaccone

A 3-m thick sediment was found in a limestone mine located in the Apulia region (south of Italy), at a depth of 25-30 m from the current ground level. Samples from 5 layers were investigated by X-ray Absorption Near Edge Spectroscopy (XANES) and Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) at the iron (Fe) K-edge, paired with Raman spectroscopy (RS) and thermal analysis.

The pedosediment record under investigation represents a peculiar stratigraphic series showing complex features related to the Fe dynamic.

From a technical point of view, the challenges of phase identification in Fe oxides are many, but the application of multiple techniques provides sufficient evidence for the identification and discrimination of Fe phases. The combination of Fe XANES and EXAFS allowed to get information on the Fe speciation and its local structure. In detail, ferrihydrite is the most abundant Fe species, followed by goethite and minor amounts of hematite. Ferrihydrite content decreases with depth, where goethite and hematite occur. The presence of ferrihydrite, only detected by Linear Combination Fitting (LCF) on the first-derivative XANES spectra and on the EXAFS spectra, suggests that redox cycling of Fe occurred in these sediments. In addition, higher contents in Fe(III) complexed by organic matter is found in the top and deepest layer.

Generally speaking, RS and thermal analysis might present a promising tool to unravel some mineralogical components such as calcite, goethite and some Mn-oxides. Unlike for the identification of some Fe-bearing minerals like ferrihydrite, RS seems to be not well suited and this aspect require further investigations.

Definitely, this study confirms that each layer has preserved the distinct features that relate to its time of deposition. We underline how a multidisciplinary approach is strongly required to obtain reliable records when peculiar environments like karst pedosequences are investigated.

How to cite: Giannetta, B., Cassetta, M., Oliveira de Souza, D., Mariotto, G., Aquilanti, G., and Zaccone, C.: Iron speciation throughout a karst pedosedimentary record in South of Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-218, 2022.

EGU22-969 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Soils on mining relicts in Upper Silesia, Poland – first results from the Mala Panew River catchment and the UNESCO heritage site Tarnowskie Góry 

Thomas Raab, Alexander Bonhage, Wouter Verschoof-van der Vaart, Ireneusz Malik, Alexandra Raab, Anna Schneider, Jai Singh Chauhan, and Jeenus Joby Thekkethala

The mining region of Upper Silesia has a long tradition with international significance. In 2017, the historic silver mine in Tarnowsky Gory was recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. With the mining of galena (PbS), the region developed into one of the most important industrial centers in Central Europe in the 16th century. In addition to the underground galleries, the historical mining has left thousands of mining shafts as small relief forms, which have not been systematically investigated so far. Partly the mining shafts are associated with Relict Charcoal Hearths (RCH), another small form which is a result of charcoal production. In the Mala Panew River valley, north of Tarnowsky Gory, several tens of thousands of these RCH are found, which could be mapped by LiDAR in recent years. More detailed pedological investigations, which would allow a systematic comparison with other known RCH sites, are missing so far.

Within the framework of a Polish-German cooperation project, we started in 2021 to investigate the mining shafts and the RCH in Tarnowsky Gory and in the Mala Panew River valley from a pedological-sedimentological point of view. At the RCH sites on the Mala Panew River, we focused on the following questions: How was the soil stratigraphy changed by the RCH construction? What are main processes of soil development before and after RCH construction? What was the role of the pits surrounding the RCH? How do the sites differ from the RCHs at Tarnowsky Gory especially with respect to soil properties and soil genesis? In Tarnowsky Gory, where a RCH was excavated directly next to a mining shaft, the following questions were in focus: How did the mining activity change soil distribution and soil properties? What are main processes of soil development on the different parts? What is the origin of the pit infill? What is the origin of the shaft rim deposits?

Our work program included the construction of excavator trenches across the mining remains, construction, description and sampling of soil profiles along the trenches, schematic drawing of the soil stratigraphy, and laboratory analyses for the determination of texture, Munsell color, pH (CaCl2, H20), CaCO3 content, Ctotal & Ntotal and total elements by FPXRF. We present the first results of the ongoing investigations.

How to cite: Raab, T., Bonhage, A., Verschoof-van der Vaart, W., Malik, I., Raab, A., Schneider, A., Chauhan, J. S., and Thekkethala, J. J.: Soils on mining relicts in Upper Silesia, Poland – first results from the Mala Panew River catchment and the UNESCO heritage site Tarnowskie Góry, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-969, 2022.

EGU22-1520 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Identification of the phases and mechanisms of Colluvisols formation in different soil regions 

Tereza Zádorová, Vít Penížek, Magdalena Koubová, Daniel Žížala, Radka Kodešová, Ondřej Drábek, Václav Tejnecký, Miroslav Fér, Aleš Klement, Antonín Nikodem, Tomáš Hrdlička, Jessica Reyes Rojas, Marko Spasic, Petra Vokurková, Lenka Pavlů, Karel Němeček, Aleš Vaněk, and Lenka Lisá

Colluvisols represent an important part of the soil cover, occupying concave slope elements especially in landscapes with undulating relief. Their development reacts to changes in land use or climate, manifested by intense erosion activity or longer resting periods with predominantly in-situ pedogenesis. In climatically, pedologically and historically different regions, diverse colluvial profiles can be encountered. In this study, we investigated deep colluvial profiles in three agricultural plots in Czechia with different soil cover, climatic and geological conditions in order to identify differences in the depositional pattern and erosion history of the areas. In each of the plots, two profiles (depths ranging from 200 to 400 cm) were opened in the toe-slope and side valley areas. Individual layers were investigated by various methods, including optically stimulated luminescence dating, 137Cs activity, concentration of vertically stable geochemical tracers (organochlorine pesticides, nutrients) or micromorphology and clay mineralogy, allowing the layers to be linked to periods of human activity. In all study areas, a significant difference in the colluvial deposition mechanism was found in the toe-slope and side valley areas. While the positions in the side valleys were mainly composed of older material with a minimum concentration of human-bound substances, the profiles in the toe-slopes are characterized by a significant deposition of recently accumulated material. The most pronounced redistribution of material was recorded in the Chernozem area on loess. In the toe-slope area, maxima of 137Cs, DDT (up to 350 µg/kg) and phosphorus were found at 100-140 cm, indicating the very low age of this layer (from the mid-20th century). The mineralogical and chemical composition of this layer and the layer below (140-220 cm) shows considerable similarities to the substrate material, indicating severe truncation of the source soils and accumulation of ploughed parent material. In contrast, in the side valley, this new material was found only in the topsoil, with approximately 3 m of older, humus-rich material beneath. This area is therefore not an area of recent deposition, but rather of material transport. The original buried Chernozem was found in both cases at a depth of about 300-350 cm. In the Cambisol area, the combination of rill and sheet erosion led to the formation of a highly stratified profile with a large variation in texture or humus content. The maximum of human-bound substances (137Cs, HCB, DDT) was found at a depth of 1 m, underlain by older material with signs of post-depositional pedogenesis (weathering and redox processes). The area of side valley was, as in the previous area, almost unaffected by recent sedimentation. In Luvisol area, the concentration on human-bound substances was generally lower and affected only the upper, humus-rich layer (ca 80 cm) of the Colluvisols, both at the toe-slope and the side valley. Below this layer, the profiles are characterised by relatively pronounced pedogenesis in the sedimentary material (clay coatings visible at the thin sections), indicating slower sedimentation and a longer period of sedimentary quiescence.

Study was supported by grant nr. 21-11879S of the Czech science foundation and MEYS CR project nr. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000845.  

How to cite: Zádorová, T., Penížek, V., Koubová, M., Žížala, D., Kodešová, R., Drábek, O., Tejnecký, V., Fér, M., Klement, A., Nikodem, A., Hrdlička, T., Reyes Rojas, J., Spasic, M., Vokurková, P., Pavlů, L., Němeček, K., Vaněk, A., and Lisá, L.: Identification of the phases and mechanisms of Colluvisols formation in different soil regions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1520, 2022.

EGU22-2222 | Presentations | SSS3.2

How to determine the anthropogenic signal at less settled spatially bounded archaeological sites? 

Martin Janovský, Alžběta Danielisová, Jan Horák, Barbora Strouhalová, and Daniel Bursák

Our research on spatially bounded Iron Age enclosure of the Viereckschanze type in southern Bohemia made it possible to distinguish the anthropogenic influence of the Iron Age from modern human activities. We collected over 456 samples from 200 cores to a depth of up to one metre. Samples were measured using pXRF to determine the content of the following elements: Al, Si, P, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, As, Rb, Sr, Zr, Pb, and LE – ‘light elements’). Subsequent isometric log-transformation of ppm elemental contents and PCA allowed to distinguish the prehistoric anthropogenic influence from the current modern one. The result of the analysis is as follows: 1) the P signal typical for archaeological settlements was found mainly outside of the enclosure; 2) the conventional anthropogenic signal from the inside of the enclosure was only represented by Mn; 3) other elements related to possible anthropogenic activities were revealed only after applying statistical analysis (As, Pb, Zn, Cu); 4) the unusual manifestation of Si and Ti was connected to the archaeological contexts. The combination of these results (Cu, Zn, Pb) and magnetic measurements revealed places of metallurgical activity inside Viereckschanze. It is certain that the site was not only a place of residential activity, but also of production activity. Viereckschanze was only occupied for a short period of time.

The presented abstract is adapted from the article published in Catena in 2022.

 

Acknowledgements:

This work was supported by the Czech Science Foundation [Project: Mobility of materials and life cycles of artefacts: archaeometry of metals and glass of the La Tène and early Roman period; project number: 18-20096S]. M.J. was supported by project “Geochemical insight into non-destructive archaeological research” (LTC19016) of subprogram INTER‐COST (LTC19) of program INTEREXCELLENCE by Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport of the Czech Republic.

How to cite: Janovský, M., Danielisová, A., Horák, J., Strouhalová, B., and Bursák, D.: How to determine the anthropogenic signal at less settled spatially bounded archaeological sites?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2222, 2022.

EGU22-2354 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Spatial heterogeneity of buried and recent soils in a drift sand area in North-Eastern Germany 

Kazuki Uchino, Alexandra Raab, Alexander Bonhage, Anna Schneider, Thomas Raab, Klaus-Peter Wechler, and Albrecht Bauriegel

In the North European Lowland, on the sandy deposits of the Weichselian glaciation, soils developed during periods of landscape stability are often conserved under windblown sand. However, small-scale changes of sediments and other soil forming factors can result in high spatial variation of soil properties in these landscapes; and relocation of soil material by geomorphic processes further increases the spatial heterogeneity of the soil landscape. These spatial variations in soil properties and conservation need to be considered in order to correctly decipher and interpret the buried soils as records of past environmental conditions.

In the forefield of the open-cast mine Cottbus-Nord, archaeological excavations in a dune and drift sand area revealed widespread buried soils of different characteristics. The densely spaced excavation trenches give exceptionally good insights into the pedosphere, allow for reconstructing the distribution of fossil and recent soils in a high spatial resolution, and offer good opportunities to improve the understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of soil formation. Remains of postpleistocene hunter-gatherer campsites were documented in archaeological excavations and found to be associated with a buried soil horizon.

We recorded the stratigraphy of soil profiles along more than 15 trenches within an area of about 20 ha, and additionally described the position of buried soils from GPR surveys and microdrone photogrammetry. In a recently opened, 455 m long trench, all characteristic soils and sediments of the study region could be observed and stratigraphically connected. Within this trench, four profiles were identified for further research. Each profile was classified and described according to WRB and German Guidelines for Soil Mapping; and was sampled and investigated through laboratory analyses including determination of organic matter, total carbon and nitrogen contents, soil colour identification, texture analysis, magnetic susceptibility measurement, metal content analysis using X-ray fluorescence analyzer and pH measurement. The compaction and cementation of soil horizons was assessed in situ with a pocket penetrometer.

Results show a small-scale mosaic of soils developed on fluvio-aeolian, limnic and aeolian sediments, high spatial variations in pedogenesis due to varying groundwater influence and intensity of horizontal and vertical leachate transport, and high variations in the erosion or conservation of fossil soils. The soil and sediment stratigraphy reflects several phases of landscape development: i) the formation of a Late Pleistocene soil on fluvio-aeolian deposits, ii) a fossilization by aeolian sands, iii) a stability phase with intensive podsolization and peat formation, and iv) a land use-induced aeolian remobilization of the sands. 

How to cite: Uchino, K., Raab, A., Bonhage, A., Schneider, A., Raab, T., Wechler, K.-P., and Bauriegel, A.: Spatial heterogeneity of buried and recent soils in a drift sand area in North-Eastern Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2354, 2022.

EGU22-3563 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Initial processes of soil formation on Relict Charcoal Hearths (RCHs) in the Tauer Forest (Brandenburg, Germany) 

Alexandra Raab, Minhye Kim, Alexander Bonhage, Anna Schneider, Thomas Raab, and Albrecht Bauriegel

In the Tauer Forest, a woodland area north of the city of Peitz (Brandenburg, Germany), extensive charcoal burning was carried out from the mid-16th century to the mid-19th century resulting in numerous Relict Charcoal Hearths (RCHs). The most prominent feature of the soils on RCHs is the anthropogenically modified 20-30 cm thick RCH substrate that buries the former forest soil. The RCH substrate is a quite heterogenous mixture of mineral and organic compounds which were modified through heat during charring. It is characterized by its black color resulting from charcoal fragments (from fine dust to decimetre size pieces), lower bulk density, and higher porosity.

After their use, the charcoal production sites were abandoned and soon became overgrown. Soil formation could commence in this anthropogenically modified RCH substrate. During recently conducted field work on RCHs in the Tauer Forest we detected features of initial podzolisation (bleaching of quartz grains) within this RCH substrate. To further investigate initial processes of soil formation (acidification, podzolisation, accumulation of soil organic matter) on RCHs, two different RCH sites were selected in the Tauer Forest: one RCH site in the forest district Tannenwald and one RCH site in the forest district Kleinsee.

The Tannenwald site (RCH no. 29958) is situated in the western part of the Tauer Forest. It is an inland dune area with a coniferous forest (Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris L.) plantation. The forest soils are Podzols and the soils on the RCHs are classified as Spolic Technosols.  The dense undergrowth consists of mainly blueberry (Vaccinium L.). Dendrochronological ages (determination by K-U Heußner, DAI Berlin) of charcoal pieces proof, that the charcoal hearth was used after 1655.

The Kleinsee site (RCH no. 29424) is situated in the eastern part of the Tauer Forest. The parent material is sand from glaciofluvial sediments of the Weichselian glaciation. The forest soils are Brunic Arenosols (Protospodic) and the soils on the RCHs are classified as Spolic Technosols (Arenic). The deciduous forest is dominated by sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.). The undergrowth is only scarce with some ferns (sporadic), blueberry (Vaccinium L.), some shoots of rowan (Sorbus aucuparia L.)  and some moss. There is no dendrochronological age available from the RCH, but RCHs nearby were dated from the 18th to the 19th centuries.

At both sites, three soil monoliths were sampled on the RCH platform and three monoliths from the natural forest soil as reference soils. The soil monoliths were sampled continuously in 3 cm vertical spacings. Following lab analyses were carried out: pH (CaCl2), pH (H2O), total carbon (TC), total nitrogen (TN), CECeff and total concentrations of selected elements. Analyses of pedogenic Fe are in progress. First results of these study will be presented and discussed.

How to cite: Raab, A., Kim, M., Bonhage, A., Schneider, A., Raab, T., and Bauriegel, A.: Initial processes of soil formation on Relict Charcoal Hearths (RCHs) in the Tauer Forest (Brandenburg, Germany), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3563, 2022.

EGU22-4341 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Identifying taxa from highly degraded shell micro-fragments in anthropogenic soils from Waterfall Bluff, South Africa 

Annette Oertle, Katherine Szabó, Sibongiseni Gaqa, Hayley Cawthra, Irene Esteban, Justin Pargeter, and Erich Fisher

Archaeomalacological analysis is generally undertaken on recovered macro-remains to characterize the overall composition of faunal remains in a deposit. Given the susceptibility of shell middens to a variety of taphonomic processes, it is assumed that the prior presence of shell in deposits may therefore occasionally be missed. Deteriorated micro-remains can mix indistinguishably into surrounding sediments and make their analyses and identification difficult, particularly in older deposits and in environments that experience rapid rates of weathering. This paper explores whether microscopic remains of deteriorated molluscs can be distinguished from other microscopic remains at the coastal rock shelter site of Waterfall Bluff in Mpondoland, South Africa. The methodology uses a multi-scalar approach integrating shell mineralogy and microstructure using the taxonomic distinctiveness of these features. The diagnostic features (e.g. morphology, hinges, spires, and apertures) used for identifying macro-remains are absent in micro-remains, therefore unique methods of identification are needed to identify these microscopic mollusc fragments. Through mineralogical analyses and scanning electron microscope (SEM) imaging, the nacreous remains of mussel shell were identified from previously unidentified degraded shell remains as well as sediment samples from Waterfall Bluff. These highly degraded remains were located under the dripline in the oldest deposits (LBCS) which are sharply comparable to the more well-preserved macro mollusc evidence in the younger (SRCS) deposits. These methods recovered ‘invisible’ evidence of shellfish remains, which led to additional and clearer evidence of continued coastal foraging from Marine Isotope Stage 3 to the early Holocene (40 ka to 10 ka) on the South African coast.

How to cite: Oertle, A., Szabó, K., Gaqa, S., Cawthra, H., Esteban, I., Pargeter, J., and Fisher, E.: Identifying taxa from highly degraded shell micro-fragments in anthropogenic soils from Waterfall Bluff, South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4341, 2022.

The Chinese loess-paleosol sequences provide valuable records of the Quaternary climate changes. However, the relative contributions of the Quaternary paleoclimate (e.g. precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, vegetation and dust addition) on interglacial paleosol development, and which factor plays a key role are inadequately studied in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). Here, we examine the relative contributions of these factors on paleosol development on the CLP by a sensitivity analysis. For this, we simulate paleosol development using the climate-soil model LOVECLIM-SoilGen2.

The sensitivity analysis was done during two interglacials, MIS11 and MIS13, where MIS11 shows quite contrasting climate forcing with MIS-13. Several simulations were run; in each simulation, one parameter is allowed to change at a time (e.g. precipitation), and others are kept constant (as in reference). A reference simulation is included 100-year average values of the end of Holocene simulation mimicking the Pre-Industrial climate. Additionally, combined effects of climatic parameters (e.g. precipitation and evapotranspiration) were investigated, and mean absolute error was calculated between each of the sensitivity simulation and the actual simulation (combination of all soil forming factors).   

Our results show that precipitation has the largest influence on the depth redistribution of soil properties (calcite and clay) in MIS11 and MIS13 and dust addition is the dominant factor affecting the amount of simulated calcite and clay. Our results indicate that potential evapotranspiration has a pronounced impact during MIS13. Unlike the simulated MIS11 paleosol, which is explained by precipitation plus dust addition, the MIS13 paleosol development is better explained when potential evapotranspiration is also taken into account during this extreme interglacial. 

How to cite: Ranathunga, K. N., Finke, P., Yin, Q., and Wu, Z.: Modelling the relative effect of different climate factors, vegetation and dust deposition on the MIS-13 and MIS-11 paleosol development on the Chinese Loess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4663, 2022.

EGU22-6188 | Presentations | SSS3.2

The Secret of the Chalcolithic Shafts: Insights from the Portable Luminescence Method (pOSL) 

Oren Ackermann, Edwin C.M. van den Brink, Eriola Jakoel, Yaakov Anker, Joel Roskin, and Yotam Asscher

A late Chalcolithic period site was discovered in central Tel Aviv during a salvage excavation that was conducted by the Israeli Antiquities Authority. The remains included 113 pits and shafts which were divided according to their shape into four groups:

 

Group 1: Round pits: a group that includes three types: small (0.5–0.6m diameter); medium (c. 1m); large (c. 2m). Some pits contained brown sediment mixed with ceramic fragments, animal bones, and flint; others had no archaeological finds.

 

Group 2: Bell shape pits

 

Group 3: Narrow, deep shafts 1–2m diameter, 3–6m deep. This group includes three types of shafts that differ from each other according to their shape: shafts with uniform width; conical shafts narrowing towards the bottom; shafts with a wide niche in the lower third. In some of the shafts, the fill consisted of brown sediments; some contained archaeological finds and some did not. In some of the shafts, the fill contained fragments of aeolian sandstone, sand, and anthropogenic brown sediment on top that sealed the fill.

Group 4: Shaft that opens into an underground space. Only one shaft like this was exposed.

  

Many questions arise about the function of these diverse shafts including why were so many of them mined?

 

Examination using the pOSL (portable luminescence method), showed that some of the shafts were used for a long time, and some were probably used for a short time, or not at all. From this, it can be assumed that the large number of shafts may be the result of trial-and-error style probing.

 

The pits which contained sand and rock fragments (group 3) had a section with a wide niche in the lower third and a thin clay layer. This suggests that these shafts served as water wells for the site inhabitants, which raises a further question: why was it necessary to dig wells along the Ayalon River? 

 

This will be discussed in the presentation

How to cite: Ackermann, O., van den Brink, E. C. M., Jakoel, E., Anker, Y., Roskin, J., and Asscher, Y.: The Secret of the Chalcolithic Shafts: Insights from the Portable Luminescence Method (pOSL), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6188, 2022.

Agricultural terraces are a well-known phenomenon in mountainous regions throughout the globe. Those structures are said to have been in the service of agriculture for several hundred or several thousand years. In different places and environments, terraces had different roles. It has been claimed that its primary goal in the sub-humid and semi-arid environments, was to preserve winter precipitation water within the terrace body. Endemic and domesticated vegetation will then flourish utilizing this resource throughout the dry summer season. Agricultural terraces are widely described in the literature as having three main parts, (a) the base, which is normally a naturally inclined bedrock surface, (b) a manmade retaining wall supporting the weight of (c) the terrace body, usually made of soil and gravel. The terrace base is described in all reviewed literature as an impermeable rock layer. However, previously published calculations suggested that in the sub-humid main mountain ridge of Israel, evapotranspiration will prevent retaining water even in a thick terrace body for the entire summer period. Moreover, in many terraces scattered across the given area, a few centimeters thick soil body seems to support decades and centuries old trees. Therefore, water retention mechanism in the agricultural terraces has been examined. Our study indicate that karst substratum is the controlling factor on terrace water retention. We propose that a well-developed, soil filled, karst system at the terrace substratum impedes the conventional evaporation process of a simple homogeneous soil parcel. Under such conditions, thin body terraces are able to support non-irrigated ancient agriculture water demand in sub-humid environment.

How to cite: Inbar, N. and Ackermann, O.: The role of karstic substratum of ancient mountainous agricultural terraces at the semi-arid environment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6196, 2022.

EGU22-7137 | Presentations | SSS3.2

A Model Approach Assessing The Soil Properties Of Raised Bed Landscapes 

Simran Sekhri, Thomas Raab, and Patrick Joseph Drohan

Common anthropogenic surface features across Scotland and Ireland are raised beds, which are agronomic ridges and furrows created prior to the 20th century to improve agricultural yield. Creating a raised bed improves yield by providing to the root zone better soil drainage, suitable micro-climatic conditions, and enrichment of organic matter and nutrients. Raised beds are structurally identifiable and can be examined using remote sensing techniques such as LIDAR imagery or aerial photography to analyze different dimensions of raised bed units. We examined the geomorphic parameters (height, length, breadth, ridge shape, furrow depth, unit orientation and block size) of raised beds found in the Fancroft region of County Offlay, Ireland. We developed a model of raised bed structural components and the distribution and change in soil properties including soil drainage, texture, horizon differentiation, soil colour, nutrient distribution, organic matter movement and the carbon influx and outflow have been provided. Our study aims to elucidate the typical geomorphic properties of raised bed landscapes, their basic chemical and physical soil properties and the landform attributes that may influence soil properties. Overall, the conceptual basis of raised bed landscapes have been visualised and presented to formulate an ideal raised bed theoretical model. Such a comprehensive model can be further extended to learn more about ancient agricultural practices, heritage, a causal link between present day and historical farming practices.

How to cite: Sekhri, S., Raab, T., and Drohan, P. J.: A Model Approach Assessing The Soil Properties Of Raised Bed Landscapes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7137, 2022.

EGU22-7509 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Buried palaeosols in Tuscan inland basins provide clues to changing climate conditions across the Pliocene 

Anna Andreetta, Marco Benvenuti, Antonio Delgado-Huertas, and Stefano Carnicelli

Although Pliocene palaeosols can supply palaeoclimate information and help to disentangle stratigraphic reconstructions, soils are sparsely represented in global datasets for Pliocene climate. Pliocene was characterised by global mean annual temperatures 2–4 °C warmer than today, representing an analogue for future climate prevision. We aimed, thus, to investigate palaeosols as suitable archives for reconstructing geomorphic processes, ecosystems and climate patterns in the Pliocene.

We compared the palaeosol record stored in Zanclean and Piacenzian successions locate in central and southern Tuscany, respectively. Palaeosol morphological features observed in the field were used for the sequence-stratigraphic interpretation. To qualitatively evaluate soil development, we considered the time needed to attain various soil properties. Pedogenetic processes and the intensity of weathering were also quantified by applying a range of proxies based on geochemical analyses. Climofunctions based on major element ratios were used to estimate mean annual palaeoprecipitation (MAP). Carbon and oxygen isotopes analysis were performed on carbonate nodules, to verify their pedogenic origin and as a proxy for palaeovegetation and palaeotemperatures.

Though all soils are unconformities in the record, the rank and type of unconformity were defined in detail, to precisely place the soil formation time within the sedimentary sequence and to correlate soil-forming intervals with general environmental changes. Then, soil characteristics were interpreted, considering the geomorphological setting reconstructed by the stratigraphic and sedimentological analysis.

The Zanclean-age soils represent a presumably long-time span, likely a few thousand years, and exhibit strong redoximorphic features such as low-grade plinthite, suggesting that they developed in intervals of humid climate. The mid Piacenzian-age soils represent rhythmic and short intervals of pedogenesis, which correlate to sea level highstands. The main characteristics of palaeosols are due to clay shrink-swell properties (vertic) and carbonate translocation (calcic). Calcic features were interpreted as recording the duration of pedogenesis and thus of the sedimentary hiatuses, suggesting a range of development from 1,000 to 10,000 years. These soil features and the isotopic proxies converge towards indicating a highly seasonal rainfall pattern. This inference matches the sedimentological facies, which point to sediment transport and deposition from highly laden flood flows, recalling the sedimentary dynamics of seasonal fluvial systems. The hypothesis of a very high degree of rainfall seasonality would match well with existing palaeoclimatic records for the Mediterranean Middle Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP), and could shed light on certain unusual features in such records.

Comparing soils developed in the Early and in the Late Pliocene, the MAP estimates confirm the differences in climate condition which likely led to the divergent pedogenesis pathways. Furthermore, the palaeotemperatures estimated from the oxygen isotopic composition of pedogenic carbonates within Piacenzian calcic horizons, point to values matching the modelled temperatures for the MPWP.

How to cite: Andreetta, A., Benvenuti, M., Delgado-Huertas, A., and Carnicelli, S.: Buried palaeosols in Tuscan inland basins provide clues to changing climate conditions across the Pliocene, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7509, 2022.

EGU22-7978 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Drought sensitivity of Pinus sylvestris L. on century old charcoal rich Technosols in the North-German Lowland 

Md Asif Al Jobayer, Katharina Bloß, Christopher Porsch, Ernst van der Maarten, Marieke van der Maaten-Theunissen, Alexander Bonhage, Alexandra Raab, Anna Schneider, and Thomas Raab

Soils on relict charcoal hearths (RCHs), i.e. aged charcoal rich Technosols, feature documented legacy effects regarding their physical and chemical soil properties. These forest soils result from the pre-/early-industrial production of charcoal in upright standing hearths. Today, RCHs are found in forested areas as circular microrelief structures with average diameters of about 10 meters that contain technogenic soil horizons of about 20 cm thickness. RCH soils are most distinctly characterized by their large content of pyrogenic soil organic matter and consequently increased total carbon contents. The resulting changes in the soils’ cation exchange capacity, soil acidity, total nitrogen contents and total element stocks are often significant. Furthermore, changes in soil physical properties like a lower bulk density and a higher porosity result in changed soil-water- and temperature regimes. Combined, these effects potentially result in unique soil microhabitats that are restricted to relatively small, clearly defined areas in many forest ecosystems.

Recent studies on RCH soils increasingly focus on potential changes in microbiological and vegetational composition and abundances and report diverse effects. Here, we study the effects of century old charcoal rich Technosols on the drought sensitivity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) on three RCH sites located in Lower Lusatia, Saxony (Germany). Through dendrochronologial analysis of increment cores and historical climate data, we study climate-growth relationships for trees on RCH soils and reference forest soils for two periods (AD 1963-1992 & AD 1990-2019). Furthermore, we determine pointer years and components of resilience to quantify the trees’ reaction to extreme weather conditions. This analysis was accompanied by soil sampling and analysis on the RCH sites and adjacent reference forest soils. Here, we present preliminary results and discuss them in the context of findings from other studies on RCH soils.

How to cite: Al Jobayer, M. A., Bloß, K., Porsch, C., van der Maarten, E., van der Maaten-Theunissen, M., Bonhage, A., Raab, A., Schneider, A., and Raab, T.: Drought sensitivity of Pinus sylvestris L. on century old charcoal rich Technosols in the North-German Lowland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7978, 2022.

The Spatiotemporal Variations of Provenance in the Chinese Loess Plateau by the Sensitivity of Quartz Optical Stimulated Luminescence

Jiao Li1,*

1,*Department of Geology, Northwest University, Xi’an710069, China

E-mail: 1,*nwu_lijiao@163.com

Loess contains a lot of quartz, which is stable in nature and is not easy to be weathered and transformed. It can retain the original rock information, and the response of quartz crystals to radiation energy is obvious. Thus, optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) sensitivity can identify provenance. The magnetic susceptibility reflects the strength of the summer monsoon, and the grain size is a proxy for the winter monsoon. The magnetic susceptibility and grain size have been widely used in the study of Chinese loess as proxy indicators of the East Asian monsoon.

By studying the change of quartz optical stimulated luminescence sensitivity of loess-paleosol in the Xifeng section of the Chinese Loess Plateau, combined with the related work from others in the Chinese Loess Plateau, the provenance changes of the Chinese Loess Plateau in the time-space sequence were analyzed. In the time series, the sensitivity of quartz OSL showed a high value in paleosol, and the highest value was about 2700 counts/Gy/mg. Meanwhile, it exhibited a low value in loess, and the lowest value was about 200 counts/Gy/mg, which is different from paleosol. In the spatial sequence, the OSL sensitivity of quartz from west to east in the Chinese Loess Plateau has a large difference (8-10 times) in the interglacial (paleosol), and a small difference (1-2 times) in the glacial (loess). The sensitivity of quartz OSL preliminarily indicates that the provenance of the Chinese Loess Plateau has changed in time series (loess-paleosol). Moreover, in space sequence (among different profiles), the sensitivity of quartz OSL has changed in paleosol during the interglacial, but has a minor difference in the loess during glacial.

At the same time, combined with the study of magnetic susceptibility and grain size, the quartz OSL sensitivity corresponds well to the fluctuation of the climate proxy index, which shows that the quartz OSL sensitivity is positively correlated with the magnetic susceptibility and negatively correlated with the particle size. The OSL sensitivity and magnetic susceptibility of quartz were higher in the paleosol and lower in the loess; the variation of grain size was the opposite.

 

Keywords: quartz, optically stimulated luminescence sensitivity, loess provenance, glacial-interglacial, Chinese Loess Plateau

 

How to cite: Li, J.: The Spatiotemporal Variations of Provenance in the Chinese Loess Plateau by the Sensitivity of Quartz Optical Stimulated Luminescence, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9072, 2022.

Quantification of geomorphic processes governing development and long-term stability of vesicular A (Av) horizons in deserts is critical to understanding desert soil genesis and evaluating stability of desert surfaces. Previous attempts to date Av horizons have yielded Holocene ages that are discordant with underlying soil ages, leading some investigators to interpret Av horizons as recently formed features. In contrast, systematic increases in the expression of Av horizon development have been identified from studies that examine trends in soil morphology on Quaternary timescales. This study uses meteoric 10Be (10Bemet) as a radiometric tracer in the soil to (1) test the hypothesis that Av horizons are long-lived features in low-relief desert landscapes, and (2) enable improvement of dating techniques applicable to desert soils.

Meteoric 10Be concentrations were examined for selected soils within a chronosequence from the Mojave Desert, Southern California, USA. The pedons selected for analysis are from an alluvial fan sequence composed of mixed plutonic parent materials sourced from the adjacent Providence Mountains. Samples for 10Bemet analysis were collected from Av and underlying B horizons of three pedons of varying soil age and from an active alluvial channel to evaluate relationships between 10Bemet concentrations and soil exposure time. Additionally, two separate peds from the Av horizon of a single pedon were subsampled to evaluate the relative concentrations in four zones within individual Av peds, including the surface, bottom, sides, and interior.

Meteoric 10Be concentrations from Av horizons range from 6.95x106 at/g (active channel) to 1.09x109 at/g (oldest) and exhibit a systematic increase in 10Bemet concentration with increasing soil age. Similarly, samples obtained from underlying B horizons in Holocene to Pleistocene soils have 10Bemet concentrations of 1.34x108 at/g (youngest) to 9.40x108 at/g (oldest). The subsampled Av pedons show apparent physical fractionation of 10Bemet, primarily towards ped interiors, which contain 1.01x109 to 1.09x109 at/g 10Bemet. The remainder of the ped exhibits a comparative reduction in 10Betmet concentrations by 12-38%. This trend is similar to carbonate and clay-particle trends that also tend to fractionation in Av ped interiors, indicating a greater proportion of moisture content in these zones relative to exterior ped surfaces.

Our preliminary observations strongly support the hypothesis that Av horizons are persistent and stable features in the landscape, contrary to prior studies that attempt to explain universally young Av ages using arguments that favor Av destruction and reformation in response to climate dynamics during and after the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Our results have several major implications. First, Av horizons strongly influence the flux of water into the soil profile, thereby governing hydrologic, biologic, and pedogenic processes at and below the soil surface. This study will enable detailed investigation of the rates associated with primary moisture and sediment movement in desert soils. Second, our methodologies provide a technique that can be further developed to directly date Av soil horizons independent from the underlying sediment. Finally, our findings have the potential to inform the hydro-pedologic connectivity between Av horizons and underlying soil materials to enable a better understanding of soil genesis in arid environments.

How to cite: Sion, B., McDonald, E., Bustarde, J., and Hidy, A.: Meteoric 10Be analysis from a soil chronosequence in the Mojave Desert, USA reveals the long-term stability of Av horizons and potential avenues for future research, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9963, 2022.

EGU22-9973 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Role of Anthrosols and Anthrosediments in the Early Islamic Plot-and-Berm Agroecosystem by Ancient Caesarea 

Adam Ostrowski, Itamar Taxel, Revital Bookman, Lotem Robins, and Joel Roskin

Plot-and-Berm agroecosystems agriculturally utilized marginal lands in a sophisticated fashion, where a high-water table existed within loose, aeolian sand sheets, in semi-arid to Mediterranean climates. The agroecosystems consist of polygonal (~104 m2) agricultural plots sunken between ~5 m high berms. Here we focus on the role of sandy anthrosediments and anthrosols, based on analyzing stratigraphic sections in remains of a Plot-and-Berm agroecosystem, 2 km south of ancient Caesarea (Israel). Geoarchaeological methods included pedological analysis, penetrometer measurements, GIS-based mapping, and portable luminescence (PPSL) and OSL for the analysis of construction and possibly maintenance stages.

Ceramics and glass date the agroecosystem to the 10th-11th centuries (Early Islamic period) that are compatible with preliminary published OSL ages. Preliminary finds hint to a sand substrate mixed during Roman times. Anthrosols in the plots have distinct upper and lower boundaries with limited root casts suggesting that the Early Islamic crops were annual and not woody perennial species like vines. The anthrosol is currently only 1 m above the modern groundwater table, which appears to have enabled easy access by hand-dug pits for manual irrigation practices per plot. Their topographic setting probably provided protection of the soil and crops from aeolian erosion.

The anthrosols and anthrosediments have geochemical and textural properties that appear to reflect their role. Anthrosols were enriched to enhance soil productivity. Berm crests and slopes were coated with ~0.3-0.7 m thick and dark anthrosediments that were topped with flat pebble to cobble size artifacts. This coupling remarkably preserved the berm morphology and the whole agroecosystem from aeolian and fluvial erosion until modern times. Light grey anthrosediments comprised the internal berm fill. Additional results will help assess the social-economic effort needed to develop and maintain this agroecosystem, and its relation to ancient Caesarea.

How to cite: Ostrowski, A., Taxel, I., Bookman, R., Robins, L., and Roskin, J.: Role of Anthrosols and Anthrosediments in the Early Islamic Plot-and-Berm Agroecosystem by Ancient Caesarea, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9973, 2022.

EGU22-10315 | Presentations | SSS3.2

USA Appalachian relict charcoal hearths have complex landscape and pedologic patterns that are unique from surrounding forest ecosystems 

Patrick Drohan, Samuel Bayuzick, Daniel Guarin, Thomas Raab, Alexander Bonhage, Duane Diefenbach, and Marc McDill

Understanding how present-day abrupt change may alter forest ecosystem services is becoming more important due to ever-growing anthropogenic stresses. Forest managers trying the adapt to anthropogenic stress can benefit from the study and quantification of past abrupt changes in forests, especially when the legacy of past disturbance is still evident. Across the United Kingdom, Europe, and recently the northeastern United States, the examination of historic forest change due to charcoal manufacturing for the firing of iron or lime furnaces is yielding new insights relative to landscape stability, anthropogenic vs natural soil genesis, and forest evolution. 

A landscape classification process was used in the Central Appalachians (Pennsylvania) to identify 6,758 RCHs near Greenwood Furnace (Greenwood Furnace State Park) and Pine Grove Furnace (Pine Grove Furnace State Park). Topographic wetness index (TWI), and SAGA wetness index (SWI) were created using ~1m LiDAR data for two study areas to quantify surface hydrology effects and were compared to field soil volumetric water content (VWC) measurements. Modeled TWI and SWI values were different for RCH areas when compared to surrounding non-hearth areas indicating that RCHs were acting as a moisture sink. We also found that RCH platforms have different TWI and SWI values than rim areas. Using field measured volumetric water content, we found that as distance from the center of the RCH increases, the drier the soil becomes. Geomorphic position did not affect wetness.

Surface soil samples were collected at 51 RCHs in the Greenwood Furnace study area. Laboratory analyses revealed that RCH soils have higher C content than surrounding native soils. Furthermore, while the pH of RCH soils is like native soils, the acidity is greater in RCHs. RCH soils at Greenwood Furnace were found to have lower Mehlich 3 P concentrations and lower K potentially effecting plant growth. RCH soils were found to have higher Ca concentration when compared to native soils.

To examine within RCH differences in soil chemistry and morphology more closely, 8 of the 51 RCHs were sampled intensely along a topographic gradient. Control pits were excavated directly upslope from the RCHs. The RCHs were sampled in 5 positions across the hearth from the upslope to down slope position (A upslope rim of the RCH; B halfway point between A and C; C RCH center; D halfway C and E; E downslope rim of the RCH).  Soil profiles were described and sampled at each position. The soil samples were analyzed for trace and rare earth element content (Aqua Regia digestion), soil pH (water) and fertility (Mehlich 3 extraction).  Results indicated that RCHs are potentially a unique location of refugia for forest flora and perhaps fauna due to the unique geochemistry with higher bases and C and some concentrated metals and a higher soil water content hypothesized to be due to an observed restrictive morphology. Future research should more closely investigate whether RCHs support unique species assemblages and how they may play a role in enhancing today’s forest biodiversity.

How to cite: Drohan, P., Bayuzick, S., Guarin, D., Raab, T., Bonhage, A., Diefenbach, D., and McDill, M.: USA Appalachian relict charcoal hearths have complex landscape and pedologic patterns that are unique from surrounding forest ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10315, 2022.

EGU22-11536 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Palaeosol evolution and human disturbance on Mediterranean coastal pedosequences (SW Sardinia, Italy) 

Kathleen Nicoll, Guido Stefano Mariani, and Rita Teresa Mellis

In the southwestern coast of Sardinia coastal sediments preserve evidence of geomorphic processes such as slope, colluviation and pedogenesis, as well as human activities. We present the preliminary results of an integrated approach focused on descriptive and analytical soil investigation together with micromorphological data, geoarchaeological investigations and landscape survey as part of a larger project aimed to characterise the geoheritage of the region. We describe palaeosol sequences related to stratal architectures that date back to the Late Pleistocene. Our goal is to gain information on landscape evolution in the area and the effect of human agency on the larger environment, as well as document hydroclimatic change.

At the current coastline level, the last marine transgression exposed marine sequences dated to the MIS5, later covered by fluvial and slope deposits throughout the last portion of the Late Quaternary. Several soil sequences show traces of recent colluvial events of anthropogenic origin. Such deposits contain pottery and other human made materials related to the Iron/roman age. These initial findings seem to suggest a strong control of human activity on environmental change in the area, not related to a single location but widespread in the landscape. This control was such to cover and take precedence over the natural pre-existing surface dynamics, thereby complicating the definition of Anthropocene in Sardinia. Further investigations would bring more light on the ways palaeosols can inform on the shifts in human land use and occupation. How has land use accelerated since the Bronze age? How can these palaeosequences inform us about anthropogenic processes overstepping natural ongoing surface dynamics?

How to cite: Nicoll, K., Mariani, G. S., and Mellis, R. T.: Palaeosol evolution and human disturbance on Mediterranean coastal pedosequences (SW Sardinia, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11536, 2022.

EGU22-13221 | Presentations | SSS3.2

Optically stimulated luminescence dating of relic charcoal kilns using sand-sized quartz: a status report 

Nasrin Karimi Moayed, Dimitri Vandenberghe, Jan-Pieter Buylaert, Koen Deforce, Ann-Eline Debeer, Paulina Biernacka, Philippe De Smedt, Wim De Clercq, and Johan De Grave

Charcoal has been produced for centuries, even millenia, in and near forested areas in Europe. The relics are increasingly studied to inform, e.g., on forest composition and woodland exploitation, the effects of biochar on soil properties and plant nutrients, and carbon sequestration. All these studies require a chronological framework, which is most commonly established using radiocarbon (14C) dating. In NW Europe, however, many relic charcoal kilns have been found to post-date 1650 CE. Owing to limitations imposed by the calibration curve for the last few centuries, 14C dating results in wide age probability distributions; this implies that the method does not allow resolving the chronology for post-1650 CE features.

In this study, we report on our experiences with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating as a complementary and alternative method to 14C. The approach uses sand-sized quartz extracted from sediments that were heated during charcoal production. Our study comprises relic charcoal kilns on silty and sandy subsurfaces in Belgium (Sonian and Zoersel forest), The Netherlands (The Veluwe) and France (Grand-Est region). We first demonstrate that OSL dating can yield accurate and precise ages by comparing our results for pre-1650 CE features with independent (14C) age information. Intricacies, possibilities and limitations are discussed. For most of the features, widely adopted OSL procedures can be applied; for one of the study areas (Zoersel forest, in the northern Belgian sand belt), dedicated analysis using single grains of quartz is the method of choice. We then apply our methodology to post-1650 CE features, for which 14C dates and or historical information is available. We show that, for the majority of the investigated features, accurate OSL ages can be obtained with a precision that is similar or significantly better compared to independent age information. A considerable added value is the potential of OSL dating to distinguish between multiple features at one or comparable sites with an unprecendented time-resolution of 5 - 40 years (and 95.4% probability).  

 

 Keywords: OSL dating; radiocarbon dating; relic charcoal kiln; Modern age; natural resources.

How to cite: Karimi Moayed, N., Vandenberghe, D., Buylaert, J.-P., Deforce, K., Debeer, A.-E., Biernacka, P., De Smedt, P., De Clercq, W., and De Grave, J.: Optically stimulated luminescence dating of relic charcoal kilns using sand-sized quartz: a status report, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13221, 2022.

EGU22-1600 | Presentations | NH5.3

Imbricated trains of massive coastal rock clasts (103–104 kg) on Ludao Island, Taiwan: what they can and cannot tell us about palaeotyphoons 

James Terry, Annie Lau, Kim Anh Nguyen, Yuei-An Liou, and Adam Switzer

Ludao Island in south eastern Taiwan regularly experiences strong Pacific typhoons.  Fieldwork was undertaken to investigate the characteristics of a boulder field comprising massive limestone and volcanic clasts (103–104 kg) on the exposed SE coast.  Old large clasts on the Holocene emerged platform provide evidence for multiple high-energy palaeowave events.  Of particular interest were clasts stacked and imbricated together to form distinct boulder trains.  Inferred minimum flow velocities of 4.3–13.8 m/s were needed for their deposition.  What can imbricated boulder trains tell us about the wave processes and geomorphic influences responsible?  One hypothesis here is that localized funnelling of water flow through narrow relict channels is able to concentrate onshore flow energy into powerful jets.  These channels represent inherited (fossil) spur-and-groove morphology, oriented perpendicular to the modern reef edge, now overdeepened by subaerial karstic solution.  Support for this idea is the location and train-of-direction of the main imbricated boulder cluster at the landward head of one such feature.  Geomorphic controls amplifying wave-breaking flow velocities across Ludao's coastal platform mean that a palaeotyphoon origin is sufficient to account for large rock clast stacking and imbrication, without recourse to a tsunami hypothesis.

How to cite: Terry, J., Lau, A., Nguyen, K. A., Liou, Y.-A., and Switzer, A.: Imbricated trains of massive coastal rock clasts (103–104 kg) on Ludao Island, Taiwan: what they can and cannot tell us about palaeotyphoons, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1600, 2022.

EGU22-2435 | Presentations | NH5.3

A 1921 Western Australian tropical cyclone underscores the utility of historical records for hazard analysis in areas of marginal cyclone influence. 

Adam D. Switzer, Joseph Christensen, Joanna Aldridge, David Taylor, Jim Churchill, Holly Watson, Matthew W. Fraser, and Jenny Shaw

Shark Bay Marine Park is a UNESCO World Heritage Property in a region of marginal tropical cyclone influence and its sustainability requires a deep consideration of cyclone hazards. Here, we analyse historical records of a large storm surge from a Tropical Cyclone in 1921 that generated remarkable overland flow leaving fish and sharks stranded over 9 km inland. We weight information from the historical archives in a new framework and model event scenarios to reconstruct its magnitude. The plausible event scenarios imply that the cyclone was a marginal Category 4 or 5 storm with a return interval equivalent or slightly greater than the regional planning level. The outcome underscores the importance of examining the pre-instrumental events in areas of marginal cyclone influence as they are commonly of key economic importance.  Our work also implies that TC risk affects marine conservation in the Shark Bay World Heritage Property and requires attention.

How to cite: Switzer, A. D., Christensen, J., Aldridge, J., Taylor, D., Churchill, J., Watson, H., Fraser, M. W., and Shaw, J.: A 1921 Western Australian tropical cyclone underscores the utility of historical records for hazard analysis in areas of marginal cyclone influence., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2435, 2022.

Coastal boulders are usually the results of extreme wave events, and many imply tsunami events, which can cause significant damage and dramatic coastline changes. However, the interpretation of boulder accumulations still remains challenging. Recent boulder transport studies primarily focus on steady flow conditions with discontinuous simulations. Time-varying characteristics of tsunami waves and topography have been ignored in previous researches. To explore the boulder transport mechanisms under different boundary conditions and topographies, we establish a new sediment transport model that includes three different transport modes (sliding, suspension, and rolling) and tracks the boulder movement processes in actual topography and flow conditions. Using the field observation distribution of boulders during Chile 2010 Tsunami at Bucalemu, we validate the stability and accuracy of the boulder transport model and invert the potential hydrodynamic properties of the tsunami. The results show that our model can effectively simulate and predict the tsunami boulder transport hazard and hydrodynamic characteristics. The initiation and transport of boulders in interaction with various geophysical flows, including tsunamis, is essential for understanding geophysical flows dynamics, assessing natural hazards, and also for interpreting sedimentary evidence.

How to cite: Xu, X. and Tang, H.: Numerical Modelling and Validation for Three-dimensional Boulder Transport during Tsunami, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3287, 2022.

EGU22-3848 | Presentations | NH5.3

Sedimentary evidence for a Quaternary mega-tsunami in NW Australia 

Piers Larcombe, Moyra Wilson, Thomas Whitley, Ingrid Ward, Duncan Pirrie, Tanghua Li, Jon Hill, Veronique Florec, and Mark Bateman

Tsunamis can cause catastrophic impacts at the coastline. Australia’s NW continental margin displays abundant massive slope-failure deposits, but there is little evidence of associated coastal tsunami deposits. Here we report on investigations of an exposed field of cemented dunes and associated conglomero-breccias, located on Barrow Island. Preliminary OSL dating indicates that these deposits formed when relative sea level was around 30 to 50 m below present. If the deposits can be interpreted as having been formed by a mega-tsunami, then it was a very significant event that ran inland several km and achieved a maximum run-up of several tens of metres. A similar event today would directly impact thousands of people, multiple ports, and industrial facilities worth many billions of dollars, as well as impacting many unique ecological and cultural resources.

How to cite: Larcombe, P., Wilson, M., Whitley, T., Ward, I., Pirrie, D., Li, T., Hill, J., Florec, V., and Bateman, M.: Sedimentary evidence for a Quaternary mega-tsunami in NW Australia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3848, 2022.

EGU22-6914 | Presentations | NH5.3

Tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea – Implications from coarse-clast deposits and the importance of their shape 

Jan Oetjen, Max Engel, Holger Schüttrumpf, and Helmut Brückner

This presentation gives an overview of the results of a five-year research project on tsunami-induced boulder transport. It stresses the importance of the exact determination of boulder shapes in contrast to simplified bodies (such as cuboids), especially with regard to the transport distance. It also provides insights about a newly developed numerical boulder-transport model based on Pudasaini (2012). Additionally, some ideas how experimental research on tsunami-induced boulder transport may be improved and coordinated in the future will be presented.

The investigations by physical experiments are based on three boulder shapes of which one depicts the replica of an original boulder from the island of Bonaire (Caribbean Sea, Lesser Antilles). The experiments clearly reveal that the available impact area of the boulder has a great significance; however, this is so far insufficiently considered in analytical equations. In the given case, the comparison between the more streamline-shaped replica of the Bonaire boulder and an idealised cuboid boulder resulted in reduced transport distances of 30 %, in average. Additionally, statistical evaluations revealed that the entire process is highly sensitive with partly stochastic behaviour. Thus, we support the statement of Bressan et al. (2018) in this regard. We show, how important it is to calculate and communicate wave thresholds for mobilisation in terms of probability ranges instead of fixed values.

Based on the results of our own physical experiments and the evaluation of published physical experiments, we developed a tool, which supports researchers in assessing the accuracy of analytical equations for specific in-situ settings (Oetjen et al., 2021). This tool encompasses the crucial parameters (e.g., bottom roughness, boulder shape), combines their influence on the transport process and finally gives an indication of whether the present conditions tend to amplify or hamper the boulder transport. The benefit and the usage of the above-mentioned tool will be demonstrated exemplarily.

Furthermore, within the framework of the project a numerical Boulder-Transport-Model was developed which is based on the Immersed Boundary Method and the Two-Phase Flow Model of Pudasaini (2012). Insights into the functionality of the model and the importance of the increased flow density will be highlighted, while the further development steps will be indicated.

As part of the project, we also dealt with the future development of research on tsunami-induced boulder transport (cf. Oetjen et al., 2021). One important suggestion is to establish a standardised reference setup for experimental investigations within the research community. It would enable researchers to compare the results of their own experiments and the effect of the investigated parameters with well-documented reference values and assist them to evaluate and classify their experimental results accordingly.

 

 

Bressan, L., Guerrero, M., Antonini, A., Petruzzelli, V., Archetti, R., Lamberti, A., Tinti, S. (2018): A laboratory experiment on the incipient motion of boulders by high-energy coastal flows. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 43 (14), 2935–2947. DOI: 10.1002/esp.4461.

Oetjen, J., Engel., M., Schüttrumpf, H. (2021): Experiments on tsunami induced boulder transport – a review. Earth-Science Reviews 220. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103714.

Pudasaini, S.P. (2012): A general two-phase debris flow model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 117, F03010. DOI: 10.1029/2011JF002186.

How to cite: Oetjen, J., Engel, M., Schüttrumpf, H., and Brückner, H.: Tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea – Implications from coarse-clast deposits and the importance of their shape, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6914, 2022.

EGU22-8120 | Presentations | NH5.3

ISROC—Inundation Signatures on ROcky Coastlines—A new Research Coordination Network targeting coastal boulder deposits 

Max Engel, Rónadh Cox, Andrew B. Kennedy, Melissa A. Berke, Gregory Guannel, A. Y. Annie Lau, and Nobuhito Mori

Intertidal and supratidal coastal boulder deposits (CBD) result from extreme marine inundation on rocky shores. They are important for understanding long-term coastal wave patterns, have predictive value for future events and can support coastal hazard assessment. But they are poorly studied, and their interpretation remains contentious, with debate on whether they record storms, tsunami, or both. In the case of older deposits, uncertainties about paleo-sea level contribute additional uncertainty. These ambiguities impact risk analysis: should CBD data be part of tsunami risk catalogues, or storminess indices? The hydrodynamics and climatology leading to CBD generation are also still uncertain. Two main obstacles to deeper understanding have been identified: a lack of data on CBD worldwide; and discrepant approaches that lead to difficulties in comparing data from different sites. Building community and interaction among CBD researchers, and awareness of CBD as research targets, can help grow our knowledge and tackle these obstacles.

ISROC (www.isroc.network)—Inundation Signatures on Rocky Coastlines—is an NSF-funded Research Coordination Network to define the CBD problem chain and identify research gaps by developing a broad and diverse network of researchers. The authors of this paper are the PIs and steering group. We plan to extend the community of researchers, in particular to include underrepresented groups; to facilitate development of standards and best practices for gathering and archiving CBD data; to develop cyberinfrastructure for uploading, visualizing, and analyzing data; and train the next generation of CBD researchers. To do this, we will create opportunities for cross-disciplinary collaboration and exchange. Using CBD to reconstruct coastal inundation history and extreme climatological states is a prime example of convergence research that cannot be solved by one discipline. The network includes geologists, geographers, oceanographers, engineers, hydrodynamicists, geophysicists, climatologists and paleoclimatologists. Activities include meetings, student training and exchanges; sessions in future years at major conferences in geoscience and coastal engineering; consolidation of survey/mapping approaches; building a global database; and user-friendly, fully accessible online data archiving. Understanding past inundation and how CBD form and evolve will both help to quantify present-day risk and will provide guidance for what to expect from future climate and sea level.

How to cite: Engel, M., Cox, R., Kennedy, A. B., Berke, M. A., Guannel, G., Lau, A. Y. A., and Mori, N.: ISROC—Inundation Signatures on ROcky Coastlines—A new Research Coordination Network targeting coastal boulder deposits, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8120, 2022.

EGU22-8768 | Presentations | NH5.3

Evidence of an unreported Chilean tsunami highlights the importance of combining geological and historical records in tsunami hazard assessment 

Emma Hocking, Ed Garrett, Diego Aedo, Matías Carvajal, and Daniel Melnick

Assessing seismic and tsunami hazards commonly relies on historical accounts of past events, but aside from limitations where such chronicles are too short to account for variability in earthquake size, rupture style, tsunamigenesis and the existence of supercycles, even where long written histories exist, records may be biased by temporal gaps due to historical circumstances. We demonstrate that this is the case for the area affected by the magnitude 9.5 1960 Chile earthquake. Historical records document four great earthquakes (M8+) in the last 450 years in this region, but while devastating tsunamis are known to have accompanied earthquakes in 1575, 1837 and 1960 CE, there is no such record of inundation in 1737. The lack of reports of tsunami inundation from the 1737 south-central Chile earthquake has been attributed to either civil unrest or a small tsunami due to deep fault slip below land. Here we cross-check the historical record using a coastal sedimentary record from Chaihuín, a tidal marsh 15 km southwest of Valdivia, close to the region of maximum 1960 slip. Tidal marshes are low energy intertidal settings that may preserve evidence for abrupt co-seismic changes in land level and inundation by extreme waves. We conduct sedimentological and diatom analyses of tidal marsh sediments within the 1737 rupture area and find evidence for a locally-sourced tsunami consistent in age with this event. The evidence is a laterally-extensive sand sheet coincident with abrupt, decametric-scale subsidence. Coupled dislocation-tsunami models place the causative fault slip mostly offshore rather than below land, as had previously been assumed from the absence of historical accounts of a tsunami. Whether associated or not with the 1737 earthquake, our findings reduce the average recurrence interval of tsunami inundation derived from historical records alone, highlighting the importance of combining geological and historical records in order to obtain robust long-term patterns to inform seismic and tsunami hazard assessment.

How to cite: Hocking, E., Garrett, E., Aedo, D., Carvajal, M., and Melnick, D.: Evidence of an unreported Chilean tsunami highlights the importance of combining geological and historical records in tsunami hazard assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8768, 2022.

EGU22-9189 | Presentations | NH5.3

Hydroacoustic expression of offshore tsunami deposits on the Algarve shelf, Portugal 

Lisa Feist, Pedro J.M. Costa, Juan I. Santisteban, Stijn Albers, Marc De Batist, João F. Duarte, and Klaus Reicherter

Continental shelves are often affected by high-density sediment flows triggered by high-energy events such as floods, storms, submarine slope failures or tsunamis. The sedimentary imprints of these events are recorded as erosive or depositional features in the geological record of the shelves. Especially floods, storms and tsunamis can severely affect coastal societies and have an impact on local economies. Research focus on the sedimentary imprints of these events has relied essentially on onshore studies where their impacts are more noticeable and access is facilitated. However, investigations into the offshore domain become more important for palaeotsunami research as, in theory, their Holocene record can be better preserved there compared to shallower areas. The Algarve area, southern Portugal, provides conditions for a proof-of-concept study on offshore tsunami imprints as it was affected by the 1755 CE Lisbon tsunami and, probably, older events.

Here, we present sub-bottom profiles from an investigation into the shallow sedimentary cover of this area. Along with a coring campaign, the profiles were recorded in November 2018, within the scope of RV METEOR cruise M152, aiming to a) analyse the shelf’s Holocene sedimentary record in the most tsunamigenic earthquake-prone region in Atlantic Europe; and b) identify sedimentological features of offshore tsunami deposits. To support the results obtained from cruise M152 and to extend the collected profiles further towards the coast into shallower water depths, an additional hydroacoustic campaign was conducted in January 2020.

According to the profiles, the study area is generally marked by rough erosional seafloor and frequent exposure of bedrock. Sub-bottom profiles show different geomorphological conditions and sediment dynamics between the western and eastern parts of the study area. Already onboard METEOR during cruise M152, a strong reflector was noticed in the sub-bottom profiles of the western study area down to a water depth of 75 m and about 1.20-1.55 m below the seafloor. This reflector correlates with a conspicuous sediment layer in the cores of this transect which we interpret as a tsunami (backwash) deposit based on a multi-proxy approach applying various well-established and innovative analytical techniques. This tsunami deposit is unique in Portugal and dates to ca. 3400 cal. years BP. The January 2020 survey was also able to find the same strong reflector and trace it into shallower water depths. With a detailed analysis of the obtained profiles, we aim to investigate the lateral extent of this tsunami deposit, to better understand offshore tsunami processes, related sediment transport and the prevailing sediment dynamics of the Algarve shelf in general.

How to cite: Feist, L., Costa, P. J. M., Santisteban, J. I., Albers, S., De Batist, M., Duarte, J. F., and Reicherter, K.: Hydroacoustic expression of offshore tsunami deposits on the Algarve shelf, Portugal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9189, 2022.

EGU22-9383 | Presentations | NH5.3

Spread tsunami impact in East Tunisia contemporaneous of the CE 365 Crete earthquake 

Nejib Bahrouni, Mustapha Meghraoui, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Stefano Lorito, Mohamed Fawzi Zagrarni, Alina Polonia, Nabil Bel Mabrouk, Mohamed Kamoun, Afef Khadraoui, and Fekri Kamoun

New field investigations along the East Tunisian coastline reveal sedimentary deposits and damaged localities that may account for a catastrophic event during late Holocene. North of Sfax - Thyna city (at Henchir El Majdoul site) ~3.4 m high cliff coastal marine and alluvial terraces show a 20 to 50-cm-thick chaotic layer with sandy coarse gravels mixed with limestone beach-rocks, reworked blocks, broken shells of marine and lagoon gastropods and lamellibranch mollusks, organic matter, and Roman pottery. The chaotic layer truncates a succession of sandy-silty paleosol, covers Roman settlements and is overlain by fire remains and a relatively thin (~10 cm) sandy-silty aeolian unit and ~1-m-thick alluvial deposits. Charcoal samples collected at 10 cm below and 4 cm above the catastrophic deposits provide radiocarbon dating that brackets a catastrophic event between 286 and 370 CE (2s). Beside the damaged Roman site of Thyna, other localities of the east Tunisian coastline such as Neapolis (Nabeul) near Tunis, Hadrumete (Sousse), Meninx-town in Girba (Djerba), Wadi Ennouili (Gulf of Gabes), and Sabratha (in Libya) experienced major damage and abandonment of sites in Fifth century. The extent of damage from northern Libya to northern Tunisia at the Fourth century and radiocarbon dating, added to the 2.6 m thick turbidite deposits west of Malta correlate with the major tsunamigenic earthquake of 21 July 365 (Mw ~ 8) in west Crete (Greece). Numerical modelling of the tsunami caused by an earthquake in the Hellenic Arc subduction zone suggests more than 3.5 m high tsunami waves propagation affecting the Tunisia coastline, resulting in a run-up consistent with the stratigraphic evidence presented here. The catastrophic deposits, offshore-onshore correlations, archeological damage and modelling of tsunami waves suggest a new, higher-resolution, assessment of the tsunami hazard leading to a better estimate of tsunami risk on the eastern coast of Tunisia.

How to cite: Bahrouni, N., Meghraoui, M., Bayraktar, H. B., Lorito, S., Zagrarni, M. F., Polonia, A., Bel Mabrouk, N., Kamoun, M., Khadraoui, A., and Kamoun, F.: Spread tsunami impact in East Tunisia contemporaneous of the CE 365 Crete earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9383, 2022.

EGU22-10397 | Presentations | NH5.3

Chaotic conglomerates from Santiago Island (Cabo Verde): a review and insights into the proximal impacts of collapse-triggered megatsunamis 

Ricardo S. Ramalho, José Madeira, Pedro J.M. Costa, Joseph A. Stewart, Laura F. Robinson, A. Cristina Rebelo, Carlos S. Melo, Deirdre D. Ryan, Michael W. Rasser, Maria C. Freitas, Mário Cachão, César Andrade, Ana Hipólito, Alessio Rovere, and Sérgio P. Ávila

The Cabo Verde Archipelago holds a remarkable sedimentary record of tsunami inundations, as highlighted by recent finds on Santiago and Maio Islands. Santiago, in particular, constitutes an exceptional site to study in detail the proximal impacts of the megatsunami(s) triggered by the well-known catastrophic flank collapse of Fogo volcano (~60 km to the west of this island) and one of the most active ocean island volcanoes in the Atlantic. Previous studies identified and documented deposits – fields of megaclasts and chaotic conglomerates on northern Santiago – which were attributed to the impact of this megatsunami(s); moreover, the pioneer use of cosmogenic 3He geochronology on basaltic megaclasts quarried/displaced by the event bracketed its occurrence within the 65-84 ka time interval. Here we present the results of a recent study conducted within the remit of the project UNTIeD, which combined detailed field surveys and U-Th disequilibrium geochronology to review and further document the tsunamigenic conglomerates of Santiago and gain additional insights into their formative event(s). We can confirm the presence of tsunami conglomerates on several sectors of the island, chiefly in the north and southeast of the island. Furthermore, on the northern sector, our study suggests the presence of two distinct sets of deposits, of differing ages, as corroborated by U-Th geochronology on corals entrained in the conglomerates. The older set of deposits is restricted to 60–100 m in elevation and yielded coral ages at the upper limit of U-Th techniques (200-450 ka); its origin is still uncertain. The younger and most widespread chaotic deposit can be found from 0 to 100 m in elevation, is poorly consolidated, and mostly mantles a topography partially carved on the older deposit. Coral ages are very widespread from ~58 to >400 ka (as commonly observed in tsunami deposits) but with the higher-confidence younger ages clustering around 58-65 ka, in agreement with the youngest cosmogenic ages. This suggests a more constricted timing for Fogo's (main) megatsunami at around 58-65 ka, in close agreement with recent studies at Fogo. A distinct and younger deposit, of Holocene age, can only be found at low elevations in Nossa Senhora da Luz Bay and likely represents a local event possibly triggered by a small submarine landslide. Taken together, these finds not only provide a better time constraint and insights on the impact of Fogo's megatsunami but reinforce the notion that the Cabo Verde Islands have been impacted by multiple tsunamis in the last 500 ka.

This work was supported by project PTDC/CTA-GEO/28588/2017 - LISBOA-01-0145-FEDER-028588 UNTIeD, co-funded by the ERDF through POR Lisboa 2020 and FCT, and by projects IF/01641/2015 MEGAWAVE and FCT/UIDB/50019/2020 - IDL, also funded by FCT.

How to cite: Ramalho, R. S., Madeira, J., Costa, P. J. M., Stewart, J. A., Robinson, L. F., Rebelo, A. C., Melo, C. S., Ryan, D. D., Rasser, M. W., Freitas, M. C., Cachão, M., Andrade, C., Hipólito, A., Rovere, A., and Ávila, S. P.: Chaotic conglomerates from Santiago Island (Cabo Verde): a review and insights into the proximal impacts of collapse-triggered megatsunamis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10397, 2022.

EGU22-13502 | Presentations | NH5.3

An unconsidered source of earthquakes and tsunamis from the Kanto region of Japan 

Jessica Pilarczyk, Yuki Sawai, Yuichi Namegaya, Toru Tamura, Koichiro Tanigawa, Dan Matsumoto, Tetsuya Shinozaki, Osamu Fujiwara, Masanobu Shishikura, Yumi Shimada, Tina Dura, Ben Horton, Andrew Parnell, and Christopher Vane

The assessment of seismic hazards along subduction zone coastlines provides important information regarding the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes and tsunamis that can be expected in the future.  Unlike many subduction zone coastlines that involve one tectonic plate subducting under another, seismic hazard assessments for the Kanto region of Japan are complicated by the presence of a nearby triple junction; where one continental (CON) and two oceanic plates (PHS, PAC) collide.   The CON/PHS (Sagami Trough) and CON/PAC (Japan Trench) boundaries are recognized earthquake sources.  However, historical and geological evidence of a large PHS/PAC (Izu-Bonin Trench) earthquake has been lacking and decades worth of instrumental data point to low seismicity along this boundary.  Here we show that two unusually large tsunamis are evidenced by sandy deposits preserved along 50 km of coastline in the Kanto region.  The oldest of them, deposited about 1,000 years ago, contains evidence consistent with tsunami deposits reported elsewhere (e.g., marine foraminifera, rip-up clasts, pebbles, erosional base) and represents a previously unknown prehistoric earthquake.  In computer simulations, this earthquake deposited sand that extended too far inland to represent any known historical earthquake originating from the CON/PHS and CON/PAC boundaries alone.  Rather, the greater inland inundation points to significantly greater displacement on the CON/PHS and CON/PAC boundaries, which may be unrealistic, or much smaller displacement along the previously unconsidered PHS/PAC megathrust.  This plate-boundary fault adds another source for earthquakes in Tokyo and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean.

How to cite: Pilarczyk, J., Sawai, Y., Namegaya, Y., Tamura, T., Tanigawa, K., Matsumoto, D., Shinozaki, T., Fujiwara, O., Shishikura, M., Shimada, Y., Dura, T., Horton, B., Parnell, A., and Vane, C.: An unconsidered source of earthquakes and tsunamis from the Kanto region of Japan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13502, 2022.

CL5.3 – Theory and modelling

EGU22-766 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

A new perspective on permafrost boundaries in France during the Last Glacial Maximum 

Kim Helen Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a very cold and dry period around 26.5–19 kyr BP, permafrost was widespread across Europe. In this work, we explore the possible benefit of using regional climate model data to improve the permafrost representation in France, decipher how the atmospheric circulation affects the permafrost boundaries in the models, and test the role of ground thermal contraction cracking in wedge development during the LGM. With these aims, criteria for possible thermal contraction cracking of the ground are applied to climate model data for the first time. Our results show that the permafrost extent and ground cracking regions deviate from proxy evidence when the simulated large-scale circulation in both global and regional climate models favours prevailing westerly winds. A colder and, with regard to proxy data, more realistic version of the LGM climate is achieved given more frequent easterly winds conditions. Given the appropriate forcing, an added value of the regional climate model simulation can be achieved in representing permafrost and ground thermal contraction cracking. Furthermore, the model data provide evidence that thermal contraction cracking occurred in Europe during the LGM in a wide latitudinal band south of the probable permafrost border, in agreement with field data analysis. This enables the reconsideration of the role of sand-wedge casts to identify past permafrost regions.

How to cite: Stadelmaier, K. H., Ludwig, P., Bertran, P., Antoine, P., Shi, X., Lohmann, G., and Pinto, J. G.: A new perspective on permafrost boundaries in France during the Last Glacial Maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-766, 2022.

EGU22-784 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Converging constraints on the glacial Atlantic overturning circulation from multiple proxies 

Frerk Pöppelmeier, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jeemijn Scheen, Jörg Lippold, and Thomas Stocker

The Atlantic overturning circulation plays a critical role in inter-hemispheric transport of heat, carbon, and nutrients, and its potential collapse under anthropogenic forcing is thought to be a major tipping point in the climate system. As such, painstaking efforts have been dedicated to a better understanding of the Atlantic circulation’s past variability and mean-state under different boundary conditions. Yet, despite decades of research many uncertainties remain regarding the state of the ocean circulation over the past 20,000 years, during which Earth’s climate was propelled out of the last ice age. Here, we employed the Bern3D intermediate complexity model, which is equipped with all major water mass tracers (Δ14C, δ13C, δ18O, εNd, Pa/Th, nutrients, and temperature), to search for converging constraints on the often conflicting interpretations of paleo-reconstructions from individual proxies focusing on the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). By varying formation rates of northern- and southern-sourced waters we explore a wide range of circulation states and test their ability to reproduce the spatial patterns of newly compiled proxy data of the LGM. Generally, we find that late-Holocene to LGM anomalies give more consistent pictures of proxy distributions than absolute values, since systematic biases, that plague some of the proxies, cancel out. This has the additional advantage that also systematic model biases are minimized. Considering this, we find that the previously opposing neodymium and stable carbon isotope-based interpretations of the glacial water mass structure can be reconciled when non-conservative effects are appropriately taken into account. Furthermore, combining the information from all proxies indicates some shoaling of glacial northern-sourced water, yet not to the same extent as previous studies suggested.

How to cite: Pöppelmeier, F., Jeltsch-Thömmes, A., Joos, F., Scheen, J., Lippold, J., and Stocker, T.: Converging constraints on the glacial Atlantic overturning circulation from multiple proxies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-784, 2022.

EGU22-839 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Dansgaard-Oeschger events in climate models: A PMIP baseline MIS3 protocol 

Irene Malmierca Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and Paul J. Valdes

Frequent well documented Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events occurred throughout the MIS3 period. This study lays the ground-work for a MIS3 D-O protocol for CMIP-class models. We consider the over-arching question: Are our models too stable? In the course of laying out groundwork we review: necessary D-O definitions; current progress on simulating D-O events in IPCC-class models (processes and published examples); and consider evidence of boundary conditions under which D-O events occur. Greenhouse gases and ice-sheet configurations are found to be crucial and the effect of orbital parameters is found to be small on the important features of MIS3 simulations. Oscillatory D-O type behaviour is found to be more likely, although not guaranteed, when run with low-intermediate MIS3 CO2 values, and reduced ice-sheets compared to the LGM. Thus, we propose performing a MIS3 baseline experiment centered at 38 ky (40 to 35 ky) period, which (1) shows a regular sequence of D-O events, and (2) yields the ideal intermediate ice-sheet configuration and central-to-cold GHG values. We suggest a protocol for a single baseline MIS3 PMIP protocol, alongside a preconditioned (kicked Heinrich) meltwater variant. These protocols aim to help unify the work of multiple model groups when investigating these cold-period instabilities. The protocol covers insolation-, freshwater-, GHG-, and NH ice sheet-related forcing. This addresses the currently gap in PMIP guidance for the simulation of a MIS3 state conducive to D-O oscillations under a common framework

How to cite: Malmierca Vallet, I., Sime, L. C., and Valdes, P. J.: Dansgaard-Oeschger events in climate models: A PMIP baseline MIS3 protocol, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-839, 2022.

EGU22-913 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Disentangling the contribution of moisture source change to isotopic proxy signatures: Deuterium tracing with WRF-Hydro-iso-tag and application to Southern African Holocene sediment archives 

Joel Arnault, Kyle Niezgoda, Gerlinde Jung, Annette Hahn, Matthias Zabel, Enno Schefuss, and Harald Kunstmann

It is well accepted that global circulation models equipped with stable water isotopologues help to better understand the relationships between atmospheric circulation changes and isotope records in paleoclimate archives. Still, isotope-enabled models do not allow to precisely understand the processes affecting precipitation isotopic compositions, such as changes in precipitation amounts or moisture sources. Furthermore, the relevance of this model-oriented approach relies on the realism of modeled isotope results, that would support the interpretation of the records in terms of modeled climate changes. In order to alleviate these limitations, the newly developed WRF-Hydro-iso-tag, that is the version of the isotope-enabled regional coupled model WRF-Hydro-iso enhanced with an isotope tracing procedure, is presented. Physics-based WRF-Hydro-iso-tag ensembles are used to regionally downscale the isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model for Southern Africa, for two 10-year slices of mid-Holocene and pre-industrial times. The isotope tracing procedure is tailored in order to assess the origin of the hydrogen-isotope deuterium contained in Southern African precipitation, between two moisture sources that are the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. In comparison to the global model, WRF-Hydro-iso-tag simulates lower precipitation amounts with more regional details, and mid-Holocene-to-pre-industrial changes in precipitation isotopic compositions that better match plant-wax deuterium records from two marine sediment cores off the Orange and Limpopo River basins. Linear relationships between mid-Holocene-to-pre-industrial changes in temperature, precipitation amount, moisture source and precipitation deuterium compositions are derived from the ensembles results.

How to cite: Arnault, J., Niezgoda, K., Jung, G., Hahn, A., Zabel, M., Schefuss, E., and Kunstmann, H.: Disentangling the contribution of moisture source change to isotopic proxy signatures: Deuterium tracing with WRF-Hydro-iso-tag and application to Southern African Holocene sediment archives, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-913, 2022.

EGU22-1224 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Glacial Ocean Carbon and Oxygen Cycles: Biological Pump or Disequilibrium? 

Andreas Schmittner, Samar Khatiwala, and Ellen Cliff

Increased ocean carbon storage and reductions in deep ocean oxygen content during the cold phases of the Pleistocene ice age cycles have been mostly attributed to a stronger biological pump. However, recent studies have emphasized that changes in air-sea disequilibrium played a major role. Here we diagnose a data-constrained model of the ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum to decompose carbon and oxygen cycling into its different components. Individual drivers such as temperature, sea ice, circulation and iron fertilization have been quantified for each component. We show that due to differences in air-sea gas exchange between carbon and oxygen, the components respond differently, which complicates/invalidates interpretations of oxygen changes in terms of carbon. We find changes in disequilibrium dominate both carbon and oxygen changes, whereas the biological pump was not more efficient in terms of global changes for both elements. However, whereas for carbon both the physical and the biological disequilibrium play important roles, for oxygen the biological disequilibrium is dominant, while the physical disequilibrium is negligible. Moreover, whereas for carbon temperature (amplified by physical disequilibrium) and iron fertilization (amplified by biological disequilibrium) are the dominant drivers, oxygen disequilibrium changes are driven mostly by sea ice, with iron fertilization playing a secondary role.

How to cite: Schmittner, A., Khatiwala, S., and Cliff, E.: Glacial Ocean Carbon and Oxygen Cycles: Biological Pump or Disequilibrium?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1224, 2022.

EGU22-1468 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

The African monsoon during the early Eocene from the DeepMIP simulations 

Charles J. R. Williams and the The African monsoon DeepMIP team

Here we present a study of African climate (with a focus on precipitation) during the early Eocene (~55-50 million years ago, Ma), as simulated by an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under the auspices of the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP).  The early Eocene is of particular interest, because with CO2 levels ranging between 1200-2500 ppmv (and a resulting temperature increase of ~5°C in the tropics and up to ~20°C at high latitudes) it provides a partial analogue for a possible future climate state by the end of the 21st century (and beyond) under extreme emissions scenarios.  This study is novel because it investigates the relatively little-studied subject of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, a period from which there are very few proxy constraints, requiring more reliance on model simulations.

 

A comparison between the DeepMIP pre-industrial simulations and modern observations suggest that model biases aremodel- and geographically dependent.  However, the model ensemble mean reduces these biases and is showing the best agreement with observations.  A comparison between the DeepMIP Eocene simulations and the pre-industrial suggests that, when all individual models are considered separately, there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO2 increases.  However, concerning the ensemble mean, the results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to the modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa, whereas it is likely that changes in vegetation (again relative to the modern geographical locations) in the models are responsible for the simulated region of drying over equatorial Eocene Africa.  When CO2 is increased in the simulations, at the lower levels of increased CO2, precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic and West Africa appears to be increasing in response.  At the higher levels of CO2, precipitation over West Africa is even more enhanced relative to the lower levels.  These precipitation increases are associated with enhanced surface air temperature, a strongly positive P-E balance and cloud cover increases.  At the lower levels of increased CO2, anticyclonic low-level circulation increases with CO2, drawing in more moisture from the equatorial Atlantic and causing a relative drying further north.  At higher levels of CO2, the increased anticyclonic low-level circulation is replaced by increased south-westerly flow.

 

Lastly, a model-data (using newly-compiled Nearest Living Relative reconstructions) comparison suggests that whether the Eocene simulations (regardless of CO2 experiment) over- or underestimate African precipitation is highly geographically dependent, with some of the CO2 experiments at some of the locations lying within the uncertainty range of the reconstructions.  Concerning the ensemble mean, the results suggest a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO2.

How to cite: Williams, C. J. R. and the The African monsoon DeepMIP team: The African monsoon during the early Eocene from the DeepMIP simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1468, 2022.

EGU22-2496 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Quantifying uncertainties in global monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice at the Last Glacial Maximum 

Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Lachlan Astfalk, Danny Williamson, Niall Gandy, Andrea Burke, and Dani Schmidt

Studying the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21000 years ago, provides insights into climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and critical interactions within the earth system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere) operating in a climate different from today. Much effort has been put into reconstructing the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at the LGM using a range of palaeoclimate records, statistical techniques and models. Large disagreements exist amongst reconstructions and between models and data. Disentangling the causes of these differences is challenging. How much of these differences are due to the choice of data used, their interpretation, the statistical method or climate models used? The polar regions are particularly difficult to reconstruct, yet are key for assessing polar amplification and key processes driving cryospheric changes. Combining the information gained from sea ice and SST proxies has the potential to improve reconstructions in those regions.  

Here, we provide a new probabilistic joint reconstruction of global SST and sea ice concentration (SIC) that incorporates information from the ensemble of PMIP3 and PMIP4 models (Kageyama et al., 2021) and existing compilations of SST and sea ice. Our reconstruction was specifically designed to provide ensembles of plausible monthly mean fields that can be used to drive atmosphere models to investigate uncertainty in LGM climate and their potential effects/interactions on e.g. vegetation, ice and atmospheric circulation.  

We present our statistical approach (Astfalk et al., 2021) in simplified terms for non-specialists, and discuss how different interpretations of the palaeo-records can be included in our statistical framework. Our results are compared to other recent reconstructions such as Tierney et al. (2020) and Paul et al. (2021). To interpret these differences, we test the effect of the choices of input proxy data and models on the reconstructed monthly mean SSTs and SIC.  

References: 

  • Astfalck, L., Williamson, D., Gandy, N., Gregoire, L. & Ivanovic, R. Coexchangeable process modelling for uncertainty quantification in joint climate reconstruction. arXiv:2111.12283 [stat] (2021).
  • Kageyama, M. et al. The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations. Climate of the Past 17, 1065–1089 (2021).
  • Paul, A., Mulitza, S., Stein, R. & Werner, M. A global climatology of the ocean surface during the Last Glacial Maximum mapped on a regular grid (GLOMAP). Climate of the Past 17, 805–824 (2021).
  • Tierney, J. E. et al. Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited. Nature 584, 569–573 (2020).

How to cite: Ivanovic, R., Gregoire, L., Astfalk, L., Williamson, D., Gandy, N., Burke, A., and Schmidt, D.: Quantifying uncertainties in global monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice at the Last Glacial Maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2496, 2022.

During the Phanerozoic (the last ~0.5 billion years), the Earth has experienced massive changes in climate, spanning the extensive glaciations of the Permo-Carboniferous (~300 million years ago), to the mid-Cretaceous super-greenhouse (~100 million years ago). Recently, several studies have used geological data to reconstruct global mean temperatures through this period, as a way of characterising the zeroth-order response of the Earth system to its primary forcings.  However, there has been little modelling work that has focussed on these long timescales, due to uncertainties in the associated boundary conditions (e,g., CO2 and paleogeography) and to the computational expense of carrying simulations spanning these long timescales.  Recently, paleogeographic (Scotese and Wright, 2018) and CO2 reconstructions (Foster et al, 2017) have emerged, and model and computational developments mean that we can now run large ensembles of relatively complex model simulations.  In particular, here we present an ensemble of 109 simulations through the Phanerozoic, with a tuned version of HadCM3L that performs comparably with CMIP5 models for the modern, and is also able to produce meridional temperature gradients in warm climates such as the Eocene in good agreement with proxy data.  We show that the model produces global mean temperatures in good agreement with proxy records.  We partition the response to changes in the different boundary conditions (CO2, paleogeography, ice extent, and insolation), and, through energy balance analysis, to surface albedo versus cloud versus water vapour changes.  We also illustrate the ocean and atmospheric circulation changes, with a focus on the role of the changing geography (e.g. the role of a coherent circumglobal ocean in the early Phanerozoic). 

How to cite: Lunt, D. and Valdes, P.: Modelling 500,000,000 years of climate change with a GCM – the role of CO2, paleogeography, insolation, and ice extent during the Phanerozoic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3239, 2022.

EGU22-3684 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

PTBox, a toolbox to facilitate palaeoclimate model-data analyses 

Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Oliver Bothe, Manuel Chevalier, Beatrice Ellerhoff, Moritz Adam, Patrizia Schoch, Nils Weitzel, and Kira Rehfeld

Recent progress in modelling the Earth system has made it possible to produce transient climate simulations longer than 10.000 years with comprehensive ESMs. These simulations improve our understanding of slow climatic feedbacks, climate state transitions, and abrupt climate changes. However, assessing the quality and reliability of such paleoclimate simulations is particularly challenging due to the inherent characteristic differences between model data and the climate reconstructions used to validate them.

Here, we present a collection of software packages for inter-model and model-data comparisons called Palaeo ToolBox (PTBox). Its first intent is to evaluate transient simulations of the PalMod project (deglaciation, glacial inception, MIS3) using several proxy data syntheses. Various variables are evaluated (including temperature, precipitation, oxygen isotopes, vegetation, carbon storages and fluxes), across a range of timescales (from decadal to multi-millenial). PTBox provides integrated model-data workflows, from data pre-processing to visualisations, organised into a series of (mostly R) packages. So far, PTBox includes 1) tools for pre-processing simulations and proxy data, 2) ensemble and pseudo-proxy methods to bridge the gap between simulations and proxies and to quantify uncertainties, 3) spectral methods to analyse timescale-dependent climate variability, and 4) newly developed metrics for spatio-temporal model-data comparisons.

Finally, PTBox is accompanied by a website (http://palmodapp.cloud.dkrz.de/) with examples on how to use PTBox and interactive visualisations of the datasets produced in the PalMod project.

How to cite: Baudouin, J.-P., Bothe, O., Chevalier, M., Ellerhoff, B., Adam, M., Schoch, P., Weitzel, N., and Rehfeld, K.: PTBox, a toolbox to facilitate palaeoclimate model-data analyses, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3684, 2022.

EGU22-3771 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Drivers of LGM AMOC change from PMIP2 to PMIP4 

Marlene Klockmann and Sam Sherriff-Tadano

Understanding the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to different climate conditions is a crucial part of understanding the climate system. Proxy-based reconstructions suggested that the AMOC during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was likely shallower than today. Generations of climate models from PMIP2 to PMIP4 have shown large inter-model differences and often struggled to simulate a shallower AMOC. In the present study, we revisit hypotheses that have emerged over time and test them consistently across the PMIP ensembles from phase 2 to 4. We start by repeating the analyses by Weber et al (2007), who showed that there was a relationship between the glacial AMOC change and the density difference between the Southern Ocean and the subpolar North Atlantic in many PMIP2 models. Additional analysis will include hydrographic changes (e.g., stratification, water mass properties), the role of global and local LGM cooling as well as biases in the models. In our model evaluation, we will also consider recent reconstructions based on multi-proxy evaluations which indicate that the response of the glacial AMOC geometry and strength may have been less unambiguous than previously thought.

How to cite: Klockmann, M. and Sherriff-Tadano, S.: Drivers of LGM AMOC change from PMIP2 to PMIP4, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3771, 2022.

EGU22-4376 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Validation of a CDF-t bias correction method using palaeo-data for the Mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum 

Anhelina Zapolska, Mathieu Vrac, Aurélien Quiquet, Frank Arthur, Hans Renssen, Louis François, and Didier M. Roche

The main objective of this study is to develop and test a method of bias correction for paleoclimate model simulations using the “Cumulative Distribution Functions – transform” (CDF-t) method. The CDF-t is a quantile-mapping based method, extended to account for climate change signal. Here we apply the CDF-t to climate model outputs for the Mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum, simulated by the climate model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM at 5.625° resolution. Additionally, we test the proposed methodology on iLOVECLIM model outputs dynamically downscaled on a  0.25° resolution.

The results are validated through inverse and forward modelling approaches. The inverse approach implies comparing the obtained results with proxy-based reconstructed climatic variables. Here we use temperature and precipitation reconstructions, obtained with inverse modelling methods from pollen data. In this study, both gridded and point-based multi-proxy reconstruction datasets were used for the analysis.

The forward approach includes a further step of vegetation modelling, using the climatologies derived from bias-corrected outputs of the iLOVECLIM model in CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) global dynamic vegetation model. The modelled biomes are evaluated in comparison with pollen-based biome reconstructions BIOME6000.

The findings of this study indicate that the use of the proposed methodology results in significant improvements in climate and vegetation modelling and suggest that the CDF-t method is an valuable approach to reduce biases in paleoclimate modelling.

How to cite: Zapolska, A., Vrac, M., Quiquet, A., Arthur, F., Renssen, H., François, L., and Roche, D. M.: Validation of a CDF-t bias correction method using palaeo-data for the Mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4376, 2022.

The use of paleoclimates to constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has seen a growing interest. In particular, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period have been used in emergent constraint approaches using simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Despite lower uncertainties regarding geological proxy data for the LGM in comparison with the Pliocene, the robustness of the emergent constraint between LGM temperature and ECS is weaker at both global and regional scales. Here, we investigate the climate of the LGM in models through different PMIP generations, and how various factors contribute to the spread of the model ensemble. Certain factors have large impact on an emergent constraint, such as state-dependency in climate feedbacks or model-dependency on ice sheet forcing. Other factors, such as models being out of energetic balance and sea-surface temperature not responding below -1.8°C in polar regions have a restricted influence. We quantify some of the contributions and show they mostly have extratropical origins, which contribute to a weak global constraint, and remotely impact tropical temperatures. Statistically, PMIP model generations do not differ substantially, unlike what has been previously suggested. Furthermore, we find that the lack of high or low ECS models in the ensembles critically limits the strength and reliability of the emergent constraints.

How to cite: Renoult, M., Sagoo, N., Zhu, J., and Mauritsen, T.: Causes of the weak relationship between modeled Last Glacial Maximum cooling and climate sensitivity, with consequences for emergent constraints, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4582, 2022.

EGU22-5069 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Characterising simulated changes of jet streams since the Last Glacial Maximum 

Patrizia Schoch, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Marie Kapsch, Thomas Kleinen, and Kira Rehfeld

Jet streams control hydroclimate variability in the mid-latitudes with important impacts on water availability and human societies. According to future projections, global warming will change jet stream characteristics, including its mean position. Variability of these characteristics on hourly-to-daily timescales is key to understanding the mid-latitudes circulation. Therefore, most analysis methods of present-day jet streams are designed for 6-hourly data. By modelling the climate since the Last Glacial Maximum, we can investigate the long-term drivers of jet stream characteristics. However, for transient simulations of the last deglaciation, 3d wind fields are only archived with a monthly resolution due to storage limitations. Hence, jet variability at shorter timescales cannot be identified, and established methods can’t be used.

Here, we study to what extent changes of jet stream characteristics can be inferred from monthly wind fields. Therefore, we compare latitudinal jet stream positions, strength, tilt and their variability from daily and monthly wind fields in reanalysis data and for LGM and PI simulations. We test three different methods to construct jet stream typologies and metrics. This comparison identifies to which extend these jet stream characteristics can be robustly studied from monthly wind fields. In addition, our analysis assesses the added value of archived daily data for future research. Once the limitations of monthly wind output are known, jet stream characteristics in transient simulations of the last deglaciation can be analysed. This analysis provides new insights on jet stream changes on decadal-to-orbital timescales and identifies the factors controlling these changes.

How to cite: Schoch, P., Baudouin, J.-P., Weitzel, N., Kapsch, M., Kleinen, T., and Rehfeld, K.: Characterising simulated changes of jet streams since the Last Glacial Maximum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5069, 2022.

EGU22-5710 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Changes in Arctic Meridional Overturning (ArMOC) under past abrupt warming 

Anais Bretones, Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu, and Chuncheng Guo
According to the recent generation of global climate models, a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is unequivocal in the context of global warming. However, a recent study (Bretones et al, 2021) showed that the weakening of the AMOC at the reference latitude of 26N is decorrelated from the overturning trend north of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge.
From a paleo perspective, AMOC oscillations are believed to be one of the main drivers of the Dansgaard–Oeschger events, an alternation of cold and warm periods during the last glacial period in Greenland and with global signatures. During a warming phase, the AMOC is believed to be in a strong mode compared to the cold phase, thereby with increased amount of northward heat transport, and hence increased air temperature.
 In this study, we investigate the presence and evolution of the Arctic Meridional Overturning Circulation(ArMOC) during the abrupt warming transition from Heinrich event 4 (H4) to the Greenland interstadial 8 (GI8) in the NorESM climate model (Guo et al, 2019). The simulation is based on a validated GI8 simulation and freshwater hosing experiments to simulate H4 conditions. In the model, the transition of H4 to GI8 presents a warming of around 10°C within 30 years in Greenland, which is similar with what was observed in ice cores.

How to cite: Bretones, A., Nisancioglu, K. H., and Guo, C.: Changes in Arctic Meridional Overturning (ArMOC) under past abrupt warming, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5710, 2022.

EGU22-5749 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Evaluating atmospheric simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum using oxygen isotopes in ice cores and speleothems 

André Paul, Thejna Tharammal, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner

Our goal is to investigate the structural uncertainty in the isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation models iCAM5 and ECHAM6-wiso. In order to reduce all other sources of uncertainties, in particular, those that stem from different boundary conditions, we forced the two models by the same sets of pre-industrial (PI) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) surface boundary conditions; the latter were taken from GLOMAP  (Paul et al., 2021), which in turn were based on the MARGO project (MARGO Project Members, 2009) and recent estimates of LGM sea-ice extent. We compared our model results to reconstructions from ice cores (cf. Risi et al., 2010) and speleothems (cf. Comas-Bru et al., 2020). This comparison showed to what degree realizations of the atmospheric state of the LGM obtained from different models, due to different model set-ups and parameterizations, are in agreement with the proxy data. For example, the precipitation during the LGM was generally less depleted in the ECHAM6-wiso as compared to iCAM5, and as it turned out, the iCAM5 simulation produced only a rather weak LGM anomaly during summer (June-July-August, JJA) over the South Asian monsoon region.

How to cite: Paul, A., Tharammal, T., Cauquoin, A., and Werner, M.: Evaluating atmospheric simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum using oxygen isotopes in ice cores and speleothems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5749, 2022.

EGU22-6562 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Towards spatio-temporal comparison of transient simulations and temperature reconstructions for the last deglaciation 

Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Oliver Bothe, Andrew M. Dolman, Lukas Jonkers, Marie Kapsch, Thomas Kleinen, Uwe Mikolajewicz, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld

An increasing number of Earth System Models has been used to simulate the climatic transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. This creates a demand for benchmarking against environmental proxy records, which have been synthesized for the same time period. Comparing these two data sources in space and time over a period with changing background conditions requires new methods. We employ proxy system modeling for probabilistic quantification of the deviation between temperature reconstructions and transient simulations. Regional and global scores quantify the mismatch in the pattern and magnitude of orbital- as well as millennial-scale temperature variations.

In pseudo-proxy experiments, we test the ability of our algorithm to accurately rank an ensemble of simulations according to their deviation from a prescribed temperature history, dependent upon the amount of added non-climatic noise. To this purpose, noisy pseudo-proxies are constructed by perturbing a reference simulation. We show that the algorithm detects the main features separating the ensemble members. When scores are aggregated spatially, the algorithm ranks simulations robustly and accurately in the presence of uncertainties. In contrast, erroneous rankings occur more often if only a single location is assessed.

Having established the effectiveness of the algorithm in idealized experiments, we apply our method to quantify the deviation between data from the PalMod project: an ensemble of transient deglacial simulations and a global compilation of sea surface temperature reconstructions. No simulation performs consistently well across different regions and components of the temperature evolution which we attribute to the larger spatial heterogeneity in reconstructions. Our work provides a basis for a standardized model-data comparison workflow, which can be extended subsequently with additional proxy data, new simulations, and improved representations of uncertainties.

How to cite: Weitzel, N., Andres, H., Baudouin, J.-P., Bothe, O., Dolman, A. M., Jonkers, L., Kapsch, M., Kleinen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Paul, A., and Rehfeld, K.: Towards spatio-temporal comparison of transient simulations and temperature reconstructions for the last deglaciation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6562, 2022.

EGU22-6979 | Presentations | CL5.3.1 | Highlight

The deglacial forest conundrum 

Anne Dallmeyer, Thomas Kleinen, Martin Claussen, Nils Weitzel, Xianyong Cao, and Ulrike Herzschuh

The forest expansion in the Northern Hemispheric extra-tropics during the deglaciation, i.e. the last some 22,000 years, starts earlier and occurs much faster in our model simulation using the MPI-ESM 1.2 than in the recently published synthesis of biome reconstructions by Cao et al. (2019). As a result, the simulated Northern Hemisphere maximum in forest cover is reached at 11ka in the model, whereas the forest distribution peaks substantially later (at 7ka in the spatial mean) in the reconstructions. The model-data mismatch is largest in Asia, particularly in Siberia and the East Asian monsoon margin. The simulated temperature trend is in line with pollen-independent temperature reconstructions for Asia. Since the simulated vegetation adapt to the simulated climate within decades, the temporal model-data mismatch with respect to the forest cover may indicate that pollen records are not in equilibrium with climate on multi-millennial timescales.

Our study has some far-reaching consequences. Pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstructions are commonly used to evaluate Earth System Models against past climate states, but to what extent the reconstructed vegetation is in equilibrium with the climate at the reconstructed time slice is still a matter of discussion. Our results raise the question on which time-scales pollen-based reconstructions are reliable. Although, it is so far not possible to identify the causes of the mismatch between our simulations and the reconstruction, we suggest critical re-assessment of pollen-based climate reconstructions. Last, but not least, our results may also point to a much slower response of forest biomes to current and future ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models currently predict.

 

References:

Cao, X., Tian, F., Dallmeyer, A. and Herzschuh, U.: Northern Hemisphere biome changes (>30°N) since 40 cal ka BP and their driving factors inferred from model-data comparisons, Quat. Sci. Rev., 220, 291–309, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.034, 2019.

How to cite: Dallmeyer, A., Kleinen, T., Claussen, M., Weitzel, N., Cao, X., and Herzschuh, U.: The deglacial forest conundrum, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6979, 2022.

EGU22-7379 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

New estimation of critical orbital forcing – CO2 relationship for triggering of glacial inception 

Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Dennis Höning, and Andrey Ganopolski

Glacial inception represents a bifurcation transition between interglacial and glacial states and is governed by the non-linear dynamics of the climate-cryosphere system. It has been previously proposed that to trigger glacial inception, the orbital forcing defined as the maximum of summer insolation at 65oN and determined by Earth’s orbital parameters must be lower than a critical level. This critical level depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. While paleoclimatic data do not constrain the critical dependence, its accurate estimation is of fundamental importance for predicting future glaciations and the effect that anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them. 

In this study we use the new Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X (which includes modules for atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice and the new version of the 3-D polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS) to estimate the critical orbital forcing - CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception. We perform a series of experiments in which different combinations of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 concentration are maintained constant in time. Each model simulation is run for 1 million years using an acceleration technique with asynchronous coupling between the climate and ice sheet model components. SICOPOLIS is applied only to the Northern Hemisphere with a 40 km horizontal resolution.

We analyse for which combinations of orbital forcing and CO2 glacial inception occurs and trace the critical relationship between them, separating conditions under which glacial inception is possible from those where glacial inception is not materialised. We study how adequate it is to use the maximum summer insolation at 65°N as a single metric for orbital forcing, as well as consider the differential effect each one of Earth’s orbital parameters might have. In addition, we investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of ice cover during glacial inception under different orbital forcings.

How to cite: Talento, S., Willeit, M., Calov, R., Höning, D., and Ganopolski, A.: New estimation of critical orbital forcing – CO2 relationship for triggering of glacial inception, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7379, 2022.

EGU22-8364 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Modelled equilibrium LGM seawater temperatures inconsistent with plankton biodiversity 

Lukas Jonkers, Thomas Laepple, Marina Rillo, Andrew Dolman, Gerrit Lohman, André Paul, Alan Mix, and Michal Kucera

The Last Glacial Maximum (23,000 – 19,000 years ago; LGM) is the most recent time when Earth’s climate was fundamentally different from today. The LGM hence remains a prime target to evaluate climate models outside current boundary conditions. Evaluation of paleoclimate simulations is usually done using proxy-based reconstructions. However, such reconstructions are indirect and associated with marked uncertainty, which often renders model-data comparison equivocal. Here we take a different approach and use macro-ecological patterns preserved in fossil marine zooplankton to evaluate simulations of LGM near-surface ocean temperature.

 

We utilise the distance-decay pattern in planktonic foraminifera to evaluate modelled temperature gradients. Distance decay emerges because of differences in habitat preferences among species that cause the compositional similarity between assemblages to decrease the further apart they are from each other in environmental space. Distance decay is a fundamental concept in ecology and is observed in many different taxa and ecosystems, including planktonic foraminifera that show a monotonous decrease in similarity with increasing difference in temperature. Because the ecological niches of planktonic foraminifera are unlikely to have changed since the LGM, the distance-decay relationship based on simulated LGM temperatures and LGM assemblages should in principle be identical to the modern distance decay pattern. Thus we can use fossil planktonic foraminifera species assemblages to evaluate climate model simulations based on ecological principles.

 

Our analysis is based on an extended new LGM planktonic foraminifera database (2,085 assemblages from 647 unique sites) and a suite of 10 simulations from state-of-the-art climate models (PMIP3 and 4). We find markedly different planktonic foraminifera distributions during the LGM, primarily due to the equatorward expansion of polar assemblages at the expense of transitional assemblages. The distance-decay pattern that emerges when the LGM assemblages are combined with simulated ocean temperatures is different from the modern pattern. All simulations suggest large thermal gradients between regions where the planktonic foraminifera indicate no, or only weak, gradients. This pattern arises from the pronounced shift to polar species assemblages in the North Atlantic where the simulations predict only moderate cooling. In general, the models predict spatially rather uniform cooling, whereas the microfossil evidence suggests more pronounced regional differences in the temperature change. The difference between reconstructions and the simulations reaches up to 10 K in the North Atlantic.

 

Importantly, simulations with a reduced AMOC and hence lower North Atlantic near sea surface temperatures, yield a distance-decay pattern that is much more similar to the modern pattern. The planktonic foraminifera assemblages thus question the view of the LGM ocean as an equilibrium response to external forcing.

How to cite: Jonkers, L., Laepple, T., Rillo, M., Dolman, A., Lohman, G., Paul, A., Mix, A., and Kucera, M.: Modelled equilibrium LGM seawater temperatures inconsistent with plankton biodiversity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8364, 2022.

EGU22-8423 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Implementation of Climate Forcings (volcanic, orbital, solar, LUC, GHG) for Paleoclimate Simulations (500BCE-2000CE) in the COSMO-CLM 

Eva Hartmann, Mingyue Zhang, Elena Xoplaki, Sebastian Wagner, and Muralidhar Adakudlu

The climate of the last 2500 years is documented in natural (speleothems, tree rings, sediments and pollen) and human-historical archives. Proxy records and subsequent climate reconstructions can be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty, as the proxies can only capture a fraction of the entire variability. Climate model simulations can contribute to the interpretation of variations observed in the paleoclimate data and better understanding of dynamics, mechanisms and procedures. The state-of-the-art simulations following the CMIP6-protocol are highly resolved in time but still present a rather coarse horizontal resolution (200 km or more) to adequately address regional paleoclimate questions/hypotheses. Dynamical downscaling can close the gap between the regional archives and the coarsely resolved Earth System Models (ESMs). Using regional climate models to downscale ESM output requires a consistent implementation of the climate forcings in the regional model used also for the driving ESM. State-of-the-art and CMIP6 compliant reconstructions of volcanic (stratospheric aerosol optical depth), orbital (eccentricity, obliquity, precession), solar (irradiance), land-use and greenhouse-gas changes used for the MPI-ESM are therefore implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM, COSMO 5.0 clm16). The functionality of each implemented forcing is tested separately and in combination for the period (1255-1265) that covers the Samalas volcanic eruption of 1257. The orbital forcing is found to have the largest impact in general and the volcanic forcing has a strong but short-lasting effect after the eruption. The other climate forcings only show very small impact in the chosen period. At the moment, a transient CCLM simulation with all forcings implemented with a horizontal resolution of 50 km is running for the last 2500 years in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Nile River basin.

How to cite: Hartmann, E., Zhang, M., Xoplaki, E., Wagner, S., and Adakudlu, M.: Implementation of Climate Forcings (volcanic, orbital, solar, LUC, GHG) for Paleoclimate Simulations (500BCE-2000CE) in the COSMO-CLM, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8423, 2022.

EGU22-8788 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Temperature and precipitation distribution changes in response to global warming – results from transient simulations of the Last Deglaciation from a hierarchy of climate models 

Elisa Ziegler, Christian Wirths, Heather Andres, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Steffen Kutterolf, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo, Matthew Toohey, Paul J. Valdes, Nils Weitzel, and Kira Rehfeld

Projections of anthropogenic climate change suggest possible surface temperature increases similar to those during past major shifts of the mean climate like the Last Deglaciation. Such shifts do not only affect the mean but rather the full probability distributions of climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Changes to their distributions can thus be expected for the future as well and need to be constrained.  

To this end, we examine transient simulations of the Last Deglaciation from a hierarchy of climate models, ranging from an energy balance model to state-of-the-art Earth System Models. Besides the mean, we use the higher moments of variability – variance, skewness, and kurtosis – to characterize changes of the distribution. The analysis covers annual to millennial timescales and examines how patterns vary with timescale and region in response to warming. Furthermore, we evaluate how the changes of the distributions affect the occurrence of extremes.  

To analyze the influence of forcings on the distributions, we compare the patterns of the fully-forced simulations to those in sensitivity experiments that isolate the effects of individual forcings. In particular, the effect of volcanism is examined across the hierarchy, as well as changes in ice cover, freshwater input, CO2, and orbit. While large-scale global patterns can be found, there are significant regional differences as well as differences between simulations, relating for example to differences in the modelling of ice cover changes and freshwater input. Finally, we investigate whether climate model projections show the same trends with respect to the change in moments as those found in the deglacial simulations and thus whether the patterns found might hold for future climate. 

How to cite: Ziegler, E., Wirths, C., Andres, H., Gregoire, L., Ivanovic, R., Kapsch, M.-L., Kutterolf, S., Mikolajewicz, U., Schindlbeck-Belo, J. C., Toohey, M., Valdes, P. J., Weitzel, N., and Rehfeld, K.: Temperature and precipitation distribution changes in response to global warming – results from transient simulations of the Last Deglaciation from a hierarchy of climate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8788, 2022.

EGU22-8892 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

A Next Generation Ocean Carbon Isotope Model for Climate Studies 

Rolf Sonnerup and Mariona Claret

The 13C/12C of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13C DIC ) carries valuable information on ocean
biological C-cycling, air-sea CO2 exchange, and circulation. Paleo-reconstructions of oceanic 13C
from sediment cores provide key insights into past as changes in these three drivers. As a step
toward full inclusion of 13C in the next generation of Earth system models, we implemented 13C-
cycling in a 1° lateral resolution ocean-ice-biogeochemistry Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (GFDL) model driven by Common Ocean Reference Experiment perpetual year
forcing. The model improved the mean of modern δ13C DIC over coarser resolution GFDL-model
implementations, capturing the Southern Ocean decline in surface δ13C DIC that propagates to the
deep sea via deep water formation. The model is used here to quantify controls on modern and
anthropogenic δ13C DIC as well as to test their sensitivity to wind speed/gas exchange
parameterizations.
We found that reducing the coefficient for air-sea gas exchange following OMIP-CMIP6
protocols reduces deep sea modern δ13C DIC by 0.2 permil and improves the depth-integrated
anthropogenic δ13C DIC relative to previous gas exchange parameterizations. This is because the
δ13C DIC of the endmembers ventilating the deep sea and intermediate waters are highly sensitive to
the wind speed dependence of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange. Additionally, meridional gradients
of surface modern δ13C DIC are better resolved with OMIP-CMIP6. While this model was initially
constructed to study the anthropogenic 13C response, it has promising applications toward longer
time scales. For example, BLING 13 C includes controls on the biological C-pump thought to be
important in the glacial ocean: light and iron limitation, and controls on 13C of organic matter
formation, and thus on ocean δ13C DIC and its vertical gradient, that depend on pCO2 .

How to cite: Sonnerup, R. and Claret, M.: A Next Generation Ocean Carbon Isotope Model for Climate Studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8892, 2022.

EGU22-9768 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Reconstructing the surface temperature fields of the Last Glacial Maximum using climate models and data. 

James Annan, Julia Hargreaves, and Thorsten Mauritsen

We present a new reconstruction of global climatological temperature fields for the Last Glacial Maximum, which improves on our previous work in several important ways.

The method combines globally complete modelled temperature fields, with sparse proxy-based estimates of local temperature anomalies. We use a localised Ensemble Kalman Smoother, which ensures spatially coherent fields that both respect the physical principles embodied in the models, and are also tied closely to observational estimates.

We use the full set of PMIP2/3/4 model simulations, but perform some filtering of the simulations to remove duplicates and closely related models. We also de-bias the ensemble and show via sensitivity tests that this can be an essential step in the process, although it has little effect in this particular application. Specifically, any bias in the prior ensemble leads to a significant bias (which may take roughly 70-80% of its initial magnitude) in the posterior estimate. Thus we recommend that this step is taken in similar reconstructions unless the researcher is confident that the bias in the prior ensemble is low.

We combine the prior ensemble with a wide range of proxy-based SST and SAT estimates of local temperature to ensure the best possible global coverage. Our reconstruction has a global mean surface air temperature anomaly of -4.5 +- 0.9C relative to the pre-industrial climate, and thus is slightly cooler than the estimate of Annan and Hargreaves (2013), but rather less cold than the estimate of Tierney et al (2020). We show that much of the reason for this latter discrepancy is due to the choice of prior.

How to cite: Annan, J., Hargreaves, J., and Mauritsen, T.: Reconstructing the surface temperature fields of the Last Glacial Maximum using climate models and data., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9768, 2022.

EGU22-9897 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

The relationship between the global mean deep-sea and surface temperature during the Early Eocene 

Barbara Goudsmit, Angelique Lansu, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yurui Zhang, and Martin Ziegler

Under continued high anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the atmospheric CO2 concentration around 2100 will be like that of the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, 56–48 Ma) hothouse period. Hence, reconstructions of the EECO climate give insight into the workings of the climate system under the possible future CO2 conditions. Our current understanding of global mean surface temperature (GMST) during the Cenozoic era relies on paleo-proxy estimates of deep-sea temperature (DST) combined with assumed relationships between global mean DST (GMDST), global mean sea-surface temperature (GMSST), and GMST. The validity of these assumptions is essential in our understanding of past and future climate states under hothouse conditions.
We analyse the relationship between these global temperature indicators for the end-of-simulation global mean temperature values in 25 different millennia-long model simulations of the EECO climate under varying CO2 levels, performed as part of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). The model simulations show limited spatial variability in DST, indicating that local DST estimates can be regarded representative of GMDST. Linear regression analysis indicates that GMDST and GMST respond stronger to changes in atmospheric CO2 than GMSST by factors 1.18 and 1.17, respectively. Consequently, the responses of GMDST and GMST to atmospheric CO2 changes are similar in magnitude. This model-based analysis indicates that changes in GMDST can be used to estimate changes in GMST during the EECO, validating the assumed relationships. To test the robustness of these results, other Cenozoic climate states besides EECO should be analysed similarly.

How to cite: Goudsmit, B., Lansu, A., von der Heydt, A. S., Zhang, Y., and Ziegler, M.: The relationship between the global mean deep-sea and surface temperature during the Early Eocene, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9897, 2022.

EGU22-10449 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Modelling the regional paleoclimate of southern Africa: Sub-orbital-scale changes and sensitivity to coastline shifts 

Ozan Mert Göktürk, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Margit Hildegard Simon, Zhongshi Zhang, and Eystein Jansen

Paleoclimatic changes in South Africa, especially around the southern Cape region, are of intense interdisciplinary interest; as this is an important area in the context of human evolution, hosting a number of prominent archaeological sites such as Klipdrift Shelter and Blombos Cave (both located near today’s shoreline). Questions surrounding how large-scale and local variability (and change) influenced the local human populations are abundant. Here we present results from downscaling simulations performed for southern Africa, with a high resolution (12 km) regional climate model (WRF), forced by a global earth system model (NorESM). We focus on two time-slices, 82 and 70 ka BP, when orbital parameters and global sea level were markedly different from each other. Changes from 82 to 70 ka BP are generally in line with orbital forcing; indicating, for example, a widespread and significant (> 40%) increase in summer precipitation over inland southern Africa (south of 15°S) due to higher insolation at 70 ka BP compared to 82 ka BP. In contrast, the western and southern Cape coasts became drier at 70 ka BP, owing in part to a 40 m lower sea level, as the coastline shifted and the paleo-Agulhas plain got exposed. The effect of the coastline shift on temperatures in the southern Cape region is evident from the significant (up to 6°C) increases (decreases) in maximum (minimum) temperatures, which are strong enough to overwhelm changes arising from orbital forcing. These inferences are further supported with a separate set of coastline-sensitivity simulations at 70 ka BP, which indicate not only drying, but also larger diurnal and interseasonal temperature ranges when the coastline extends southwards, and once-coastal areas become more continental. For instance, at the archaeological site of Blombos Cave, temperature extremes (1st and 99th percentiles) of the modelled marine climate become 25 to 50-fold more probable to occur as the coastline shift leads to a continental climate. Our results indicate that regional to local-scale processes, which tend to not be represented in most coarse resolution global models, have a strong influence on the paleoclimate of southern Africa, highlighting both the coastal-inland contrasts and the importance of changes in coastline position. 

How to cite: Göktürk, O. M., Sobolowski, S. P., Simon, M. H., Zhang, Z., and Jansen, E.: Modelling the regional paleoclimate of southern Africa: Sub-orbital-scale changes and sensitivity to coastline shifts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10449, 2022.

EGU22-10696 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

The Kuroshio Current at the Last Glacial Maximum and implications for coral palaeobiogeography 

Noam Vogt-Vincent and Satoshi Mitarai

The Kuroshio Current is the western boundary current of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre and flows through the East China Sea, entering through a relatively narrow, 800m-deep sill (the Yonaguni Depression). The warm surface waters associated with the Kuroshio support habitable conditions in the East China Sea for some of the world’s most northerly warm-water coral reefs. However, it has been suggested that sea-level fall at the LGM, with a possible further contribution from tectonics, obstructed the glacial Yonaguni Depression and diverted the Kuroshio to the east of the Ryukyu Arc.

Using a set of 2km-resolution dynamically downscaled ocean simulations with LGM boundary conditions from four PMIP3 contributions, we present regional state estimates for the glacial East China Sea which are both physically consistent, and compatible with sea-surface temperature proxy compilations. We find that, whilst the Kuroshio Current transport in the East China Sea is slightly reduced at the LGM, its path is relatively unchanged, with limited sensitivity to glacioeustatic sea-level change, glacial-interglacial changes in climate, and tectonic shoaling of the Yonaguni Depression. Simulations with the best model-proxy agreement predict only minor changes in the zone of habitability for warm-water coral reefs in the glacial East China Sea. Strong surface currents associated with the glacial Kuroshio may have maintained or even improved long-distance coral larval dispersal along the Ryukyu Arc, suggesting that conditions may have enabled coral reefs in this region to remain widespread throughout the last glacial. These findings are supported by seismic evidence for glacial coral reefs in the northern East China Sea. Further field studies are needed to investigate whether this is genuinely the case, and to provide additional constraints on how the coral reef front responds to long-term environmental change.

How to cite: Vogt-Vincent, N. and Mitarai, S.: The Kuroshio Current at the Last Glacial Maximum and implications for coral palaeobiogeography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10696, 2022.

EGU22-10715 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Understanding climate, precipitation and δ18O linkages over Eastern Asia 

Nitesh Sinha, Axel Timmermann, Jasper A. Wessenburg, and Sun-Seon Lee

The interpretation of East Asian monsoon speleothem δ18O records is heavily debated in the paleoclimate community. Besides developing new speleothem proxies, the use of isotope-enabled climate simulations is one of the key tools to enhance our understanding of speleothem δ18O records. Here we present results from novel climate simulations performed with the fully coupled isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2), which simulates global variations in water isotopes in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. The model closely captures the major observed features of the isotopic compositions in precipitation over East Asia for the present-day conditions. To better understand the physical mechanisms causing interannual to orbital timescale variations in δ18O in East Asian speleothems, we ran a series of experiments with iCESM. We perturbed solar, orbital, bathymetry, ice-sheet, and greenhouse gas radiative forcings. The simulations supporting of observations/reconstructed records (GNIP/SISAL) from East Asia, help understand the controls on the isotope composition of East Asian monsoon rainfall and how speleothem δ18O records may be interpreted in terms of climate. The study provides new insights into the mechanisms of East Asian monsoon changes on different timescales.

How to cite: Sinha, N., Timmermann, A., Wessenburg, J. A., and Lee, S.-S.: Understanding climate, precipitation and δ18O linkages over Eastern Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10715, 2022.

EGU22-11090 | Presentations | CL5.3.1 | Highlight

Tracing the snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics 

Georg Feulner and Mona Bukenberger

The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes through Earth’s history because of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. Quantifying this critical CO2concentration is not only interesting from a climate dynamics perspective, but also an important prerequisite for understanding past "snowball Earth" episodes and the conditions for habitability on Earth and other planets. Earlier studies are limited to investigations with very simple climate models for Earth’s entire history or studies of individual time slices carried out with a variety of more complex models and for different boundary conditions, making comparisons difficult. Here we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity to trace the Snowball bifurcation of an aquaplanet through Earth’s history in one consistent model framework. We find that the critical CO2concentration decreases more or less logarithmically with increasing solar luminosity until about 1 billion years ago, but drops faster in more recent times. Furthermore, there is a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the critical state about 1.8 billion years ago, driven by the interplay of wind-driven sea-ice dynamics and the surface energy balance.

How to cite: Feulner, G. and Bukenberger, M.: Tracing the snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11090, 2022.

EGU22-11116 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Sensitivity of glacial states to orbits and ice sheet heights in CESM1.2 

Jonathan Buzan, Emmanuele Russo, Woonmi Kim, and Christoph Raible

Changes between icehouse and greenhouse states are known to be the result from non-linear climate responses. However, the magnitudes of these responses are not well constrained. Recent work shows that climate models, specifically the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1), have improved substantially in their capacity to quantify the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) state. Given that CESM1 can reproduce the LGM well, we consider the combined impacts of estimated ice sheet heights, Quaternary orbits, and greenhouse gas changes for a range of Quaternary climate states. To that end, we conducted two sets of experiments: first, a series of sensitivity experiments on the Preindustrial climate and second, experiments on Quaternary glacial states.

In the first set of the experiments, we show how CESM1 quantifies the impacts of ice height, orbit, and greenhouse gas changes by considering each component incrementally. Then we demonstrate that they combine through non-linear impacts. The analysis is based on seven sensitivity experiments: 1) Late Holocene orbit, 2) Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP85) greenhouse gases, 3) LGM orbit, 4) LGM greenhouse gasses, and 5) Greenland icesheet height changes, 6) LGM orbit with Greenland icesheet height changes, and 7) LGM orbit with LGM greenhouse gases and Greenland icesheet height changes. We show that adding individually these component changes do not linearly combine to match the simulations with combined changes.

These non-linear effects guide the second set of experiments, because non-linear systems are predictable due to state dependent outcomes. We use of 4 glacial ice sheet height differences and 4 glacial maximum orbital states (LGM, and Marine Isotopic Stage 4,6, and 8), for a total of 16 sensitivity experiments. These orbits are known glacial maximal states, and the 4 ice sheet heights are within the range of estimated ice volumes. We analyze these simulations in two ways, 1) the explicit effect of changes in orbit while holding the ice sheet constant, and 2) the explicit effect of changes in ice sheet height, while holding the orbit constant.

Our results show that ice sheet heights dominate the changes in climate system, regardless of orbit. But, there are subtle regional effects that orbit has that are not explained by ice sheet height changes. For example, higher ice sheets induce a global temperature increase, but regionally within Europe, there are non-linear changes in warming or cooling that are unexplained by the ice sheets. As the ice sheet height is lowered, the changes in Europe do not linearly change, and are dependent on the orbit configuration.

These results show that there are specific pathways for climate that occur due to the combination of icesheet height and orbit, and theoretically imply a constraint on the real climate state. In a linear system, these 16 states would represent the variability of the Quaternary, but as this is a non-linear system only 1 state is physical for a given orbit. As proxy data spatial and temporal resolution improves for the Quaternary, combined with these modeled climates, we expect substantial constraints on the available realistic climate states.

How to cite: Buzan, J., Russo, E., Kim, W., and Raible, C.: Sensitivity of glacial states to orbits and ice sheet heights in CESM1.2, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11116, 2022.

EGU22-11955 | Presentations | CL5.3.1 | Highlight

Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric lapse rates: a model-data study on the American Cordillera case 

Masa Kageyama, Pierre-Henri Blard, Stella Bourdin, Julien Charreau, Lukas Kluft, Guillaume Leduc, and Etienne Legrain

The amplitude of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling compared to pre-industrial has long been a topic of debate, which partly arises from the fact that this cooling is spatially heterogeneous. Paleotemperature reconstructions shows that this cooling is larger on land than over the oceans, a feature which is well captured by Global Climate Models. However the amplitude of the LGM cooling at high altitudes is still not well constrained, with available data showing an important disparity from a region to another (Blard et al., 2007; Tripati et al., 2014). Here we present a new compilation of glacier-based temperature reconstructions at high elevation (> 2500 m) for the LGM, which are compared to synchronous changes of sea surface temperatures (Pacific Ocean), along the American Cordillera, from 40°S to 40°N. This new reconstruction confirms that lapse rates were steeper during the LGM in the tropics and shows that this feature relates to a drier atmosphere. To further analyse this observation, we first use the IPSL global climate model PMIP4 results (Kageyama et al., 2021), which, in agreement with the reconstructions, yields a steeper tropical lapse rate in its LGM simulation, compared with the pre-industrial one. Next, we disentangle the impacts of the lower atmospheric CO2 concentration and of lower humidity using a single column radiative-convective equilibrium model (Kluft et al., 2019), and show the strong impact of changes in humidity in the tropical lapse rate steepening at the LGM.

References

Blard, P.-H., Lavé, J., Wagnon, P. and Bourlès, D : Persistence of full glacial conditions in the central Pacific until 15,000 years ago, Nature, 449, 591–594, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06142, 2007.

Tripati, A. K., Sahany, S., Pittman, D., Eagle, R. A., Neelin, J. D., Mitchell, J. L. and Beaucoufort, L.: Modern and glacial tropical snowlines controlled by sea surface temperature and atmospheric mixing, Nature Geoscience, 7, 205–209, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2082, 2014.

Kageyama, M., Harrison, S. P., Kapsch, M.-L., Lofverstrom, M., Lora, J. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Vadsaria, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bouttes, N., Chandan, D., Gregoire, L. J., Ivanovic, R. F., Izumi, K., LeGrande, A. N., Lhardy, F., Lohmann, G., Morozova, P. A., Ohgaito, R., Paul, A., Peltier, W. R., Poulsen, C. J., Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Shi, X., Tierney, J. E., Valdes, P. J., Volodin, E., and Zhu, J.: The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations, Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021.

Kluft, L., Dacie, S., Buehler, S. A., Schmidt, H., & Stevens, B. (2019). Re-Examining the First Climate Models: Climate Sensitivity of a Modern Radiative–Convective Equilibrium Model, Journal of Climate, 32(23), 8111-8125

How to cite: Kageyama, M., Blard, P.-H., Bourdin, S., Charreau, J., Kluft, L., Leduc, G., and Legrain, E.: Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric lapse rates: a model-data study on the American Cordillera case, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11955, 2022.

EGU22-12620 | Presentations | CL5.3.1

Climate analogs as input for ice sheet models during the glacial 

Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born

Simulations of continental ice sheets require climate forcing over time periods that are infeasible to run with comprehensive climate models. The alternative to use climate models of reduced complexity often yields data of insufficient quality for a good simulation of the ice sheet surface mass balance. Here we reconstruct the climate of the last glacial climate based on 22 marine proxy records and two Greenland ice cores for the Atlantic region. The reconstruction is based on multiple climate simulations, which serve as potential analogs.

The analog search is based on air and sea surface temperatures.  To mitigate regional biases due to the availability of reconstructions, and to filter non-essential modes of variability, the search is carried out in the reduced space of the first few principal components. For every hundred years of proxy data the best ten climate analogs are identified and their weighted sum serves as the reconstruction. The obtained climate fields provide a full set of atmospheric variables to be used as input for our surface mass balance model.

We assess the quality and uncertainty of our reconstruction by using different objectives for the analog search as well as accounting for the different spatial and temporal distributions of the proxies. In addition, the method is evaluated in comparison to reconstructions based on the glacial index. 

The performance of the method decreases during the deep glacial period with the used model pool. In addition, the climate model data does not sufficiently explain the variability observed in the marine proxy data.

How to cite: Zolles, T. and Born, A.: Climate analogs as input for ice sheet models during the glacial, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12620, 2022.

EGU22-473 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Improving the parameterization of vegetation cover variability in land surface models based on satellite observations 

Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, Franco Catalano, Souhail Boussetta, and Andrea Alessandri

Vegetation is highly dynamic at seasonal, inter-annual, decadal and longer timescales. These dynamics are strongly coupled with hydrological, biogeochemical and bio-physical processes. In global land surface models,  this coupling is controlled by  parameterizations of the effective sub-grid vegetation cover that controls amongst others modelled evapotranspiration, albedo and surface roughness. In this study we aim to explore the use of observational satellite datasets of LAI and Fraction of green vegetation Cover (FCover) for an improved model parameterization of effective vegetation cover.
The effective vegetation cover can be described by exponential functions resembling the Lambert Beer law of extinction of light under a vegetated canopy  (1-e-k*LAI), with k the canopy light extinction coefficient. In HTESSEL (i.e. the land surface model in EC-EARTH) k has been set to a constant value of 0.5 so far. However, k varies for different vegetation types as it represents the structure and the clumping of a vegetation canopy. For example tree canopies are more clumped than grasses, resulting in a larger effective coverage. In this study we optimize the canopy extinction coefficient k using the LAI and FCover satellite products for different vegetation types (ESA-CCI land cover), with FCover equivalent to the model effective vegetation cover.  
This effort results in a vegetation dependent relation between LAI and effective vegetation cover that is implemented in HTESSEL. The improved effective vegetation cover parameterization is evaluated using offline model simulations. To evaluate the sensitivity to the new parameterization, modelled evaporation, discharge and skin temperature are compared with station and satellite observations.

How to cite: van Oorschot, F., van der Ent, R., Hrachowitz, M., Catalano, F., Boussetta, S., and Alessandri, A.: Improving the parameterization of vegetation cover variability in land surface models based on satellite observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-473, 2022.

EGU22-846 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Investigating 25 years of coupled climate modeling 

Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Erich M. Fischer, and Reto Knutti

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an effort to compare model simulations of the climate system and its changes. In the quarter of a century since CMIP1 models have increased considerably in complexity and improved in how well they are able to represent historical climate compared to observations. Other aspects, such as the projected changes we have to expect in a warming climate, have remained remarkably stable. Here we track the evolution of climate models based on their output and discuss it in the context of 25 years of model development. 

We draw on temperature and precipitation data from CMIP1 to CMIP6 and calculate consistent metrics of model performance, inter-dependence, and consistency across multiple generations of CMIP. We find clear progress in model performance that can be related to increased resolution among other things. Our results also show that the models’ development history can be tracked using their output fields with models sharing parts of their source code or common ancestors grouped together in a clustering approach.

The global distribution of projected temperature and precipitation change and its robustness across different models is also investigated. Despite the considerable increase in model complexity across the CMIP generations driven, for example, by the inclusion of additional model components and the increase in model resolutions by several orders of magnitude, the overall structure of simulated changes remains stable, illustrating the remarkable skill of early coupled models.

How to cite: Brunner, L., Lorenz, R., Fischer, E. M., and Knutti, R.: Investigating 25 years of coupled climate modeling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-846, 2022.

EGU22-1448 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

An analogue approach to predicting European climate 

Leonard Borchert, Matthew Menary, and Juliette Mignot

Decadal climate prediction is a scientific endeavour of potentially large societal impacts. Yet such predictions remain challenging, as they predict climate skilfully only under certain circumstances or in specific regions. Moreover, decadal climate prediction simulations rely on dedicated coupled climate model simulations that are particularly expensive. In this study, we build upon earlier research by Menary et al. (2021) in search of a method to make skilful and cheap decadal climate predictions by constructing predictions from existing climate model simulations using the so-called analogue method.

The analogue method draws on the idea that there is decadal memory in the climatic state at the start of a prediction. This method identifies the observed state of the climate system at the start of a prediction and then screens the archive of available model simulations for comparable climatic states. It then selects a number of modelled climate states that are similar to the observed situation, and uses the years after the selected simulated climate states as prediction. Using a simple analogue method based on temperature trends in the North Atlantic basin, Menary et al. (2021) demonstrated skilful prediction of North Atlantic SST on par with dynamical decadal prediction simulations. In this study, we refine the original method by using more sophisticated algorithms to select the analogues, and choosing decadal prediction of seasonal European climate as our target. These new selection algorithms include multivariate regression at different time lags as well as non-linear methods.

 

Menary, MB, J Mignot, J Robson (2021) Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues. Environ. Res. Lett. 16 064090. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb

How to cite: Borchert, L., Menary, M., and Mignot, J.: An analogue approach to predicting European climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1448, 2022.

EGU22-1817 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Identifying efficient ensemble perturbations for initializing subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction 

Jonathan Demaeyer, Stephen Penny, and Stéphane Vannitsem

The prediction of weather at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales is affected by both initial and boundary conditions, and as such is a complicated problem that the geophysical community is attempting to address in greater detail. One important question about this problem is how to initialize ensembles of numerical forecast models to produce reliable forecasts1, i.e. initialize each member of an ensemble forecast such that their statistical properties are consistent with the actual uncertainties of the future state of the physical system.

Here, we introduce a method to construct the initial conditions to generate reliable ensemble forecasts. This method is based on projections of the ensemble initial conditions onto the modes of the model's dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), which are related to the procedure used for forming Linear Inverse Models (LIMs). In the framework of a low-order ocean-atmosphere model exhibiting multiple different characteristic timescales, we compare the DMD-oriented method to other ensemble initialization methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and the Lyapunov vectors of the model2, and we investigate the relations between these.

References:

1. Leutbecher, M., & Palmer, T.N. (2008). Ensemble forecasting. Journal of Computational Physics, 227, 3515–3539.

2. Vannitsem, S., & Duan, W. (2020). On the use of near-neutral Backward Lyapunov Vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean–atmosphere systems. Climate Dynamics, 55, 1125-1139.

How to cite: Demaeyer, J., Penny, S., and Vannitsem, S.: Identifying efficient ensemble perturbations for initializing subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1817, 2022.

The challenges of climate prediction are varied and complex. On the one hand they include conceptual and mathematical questions relating to the consequences of model error and the information content of observations and models. On the other, they involve practical issues of model and ensemble design, and the statistical processing of data.

A route to understanding the complexity of these challenges is to study them using low-dimensional nonlinear systems that encapsulate the key characteristics of climate and climate change. Doing so facilitates the fast generation of very large ensembles with a variety of designs and target goals. These idealised ensembles can provide a solid foundation for improving the design of ESM/GCM ensembles, making them better suited to evaluating the risks associated with climate change and to providing end-user support through climate services.

The ODESSS project - Optimizing the Design of Ensembles to Support Science and Society - is using low-dimensional nonlinear systems to provide solid foundations for the design of climate change ensembles with climate models. In this presentation I will introduce the project and the concepts behind it.

First I will discuss the essential characteristics required of a low dimensional nonlinear system to be able to capture the process of climate prediction. Results will then be presented from the coupled Lorentz ’84 - Stommel ’61 system; a low-dimensional nonlinear system which has these characteristics. These results will be used to illustrate the dangers of confounding natural variability with the consequences of initial condition uncertainty[1], and to demonstrate why risk assessments require much larger initial condition ensembles than are currently available with today’s ESMs/GCMs.

The difference between micro and macro initial condition ensembles [2,3] will then be introduced, along with an explanation of how this leads to a requirement for ensembles of ensembles: the former exploring macro-initial-condition-uncertainty, the latter micro-initial-conditional-uncertainty. The importance of this distinction will be illustrated with both new results from the Lorentz ‘84 - Stommel ‘61 system, and also a GCM[3]. I will highlight the challenges in designing these ensembles of ensembles to be most informative. These challenges relate closely to the problems of initialization and the optimal use of observations.

Finally the subject of model error, multi-model and perturbed-physics ensembles will be discussed. The impact of model error on climate predictions can only be studied effectively if climate change can be accurately quantified within each model. To begin to explore the consequences of model error for climate predictions therefore requires ensembles of ensembles of ensembles: perturbed-physics or multi-model ensembles which  themselves consist of both macro and micro initial condition ensembles. Some approaches will be presented for how low-dimensional systems can be used to optimise the design of such multi-layered ensembles with ESMs/GCMs where computational constraints are more restrictive.

[1] Daron and Stainforth, On predicting climate under climate change. ERL, 2013.

[2] Stainforth et al., Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Phil. Trans Roy. Soc., 2007.

[3] Hawkins et al., Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Climatic Change, 2015.

How to cite: Stainforth, D.: Ensembles of ensembles of ensembles: On using low-dimensional nonlinear systems to design climate prediction experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3885, 2022.

EGU22-5377 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

What can the last century teach us about climate models? 

André Düsterhus, Leonard Borchert, Björn Mayer, Vimal Koul, Holger Pohlmann, Sebastian Brune, and Johanna Baehr

Climate models are an important tool in our understanding of the climate system. Among other things, we use them together with initialisation procedures to predict the climate from a few weeks to more than a decade. While the community has demonstrated prediction skill for various climate modes on these time scales in the past years, we have also encountered problems. One is the non-stationarity of prediction skill over the past century in seasonal and decadal predictions. It was shown in multiple prediction systems and for multiple variables that prediction skill varies over time. Potential reasons for this non-stationarity was found in the changing state of the North Atlantic system on multi-decadal scales and the limited representation of physical processes within the model. While on the one side this feature of climate predictions leaves uncertainties for future predictions it also highlights windows of opportunity and challenges within climate models. 

We investigate the past century for this non-stationarity with a special focus on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and how the North Atlantic sector changes during these low prediction skill periods. We will demonstrate the limited predictability of features of the North Atlantic Oscillation, like the movement of its activity centres, as well as its implication for the Signal-to-Noise paradox. We also discuss the implications of non-stationarity model prediction skill for the development on future prediction systems and which processes are most likely the reason for the current challenges the community faces.

How to cite: Düsterhus, A., Borchert, L., Mayer, B., Koul, V., Pohlmann, H., Brune, S., and Baehr, J.: What can the last century teach us about climate models?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5377, 2022.

EGU22-6756 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Seasonal-to-decadal variability and predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in the GFDL Coupled Ensemble Reanalysis and Forecasting system 

Youngji Joh, Thomas Delworth, Andrew Wittenberg, William Cooke, Xiasong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Liwei Jia, Feiyu Lu, Nathaniel Johnson, Sarah Kapnick, Anthony Rosati, Liping Zhang, and Colleen McHugh

The Kuroshio Extension (KE), an eastward-flowing jet located in the Pacific western boundary current system, exhibits prominent seasonal-to-decadal variability, which is crucial for understanding climate variations in northern midlatitudes. We explore the representation, predictability, and prediction skill for the KE in the GFDL SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) coupled model. Two different approaches are used to generate coupled reanalyses and forecasts: (1) restoring the coupled model’s SST and atmospheric variables toward existing reanalyses, or (2) assimilating SST and subsurface observations into the coupled model without atmospheric assimilation.  Both systems use an ocean model with 1o resolution and capture the largest sea surface height (SSH) variability over the KE region. Assimilating subsurface observations appears to be critical to reproduce the narrow front and related oceanic variability of the KE jet in the coupled reanalysis. We demonstrate skillful retrospective predictions of KE SSH variability in monthly (up to 1 year) and annual-mean (up to 5 years) KE forecasts in the seasonal and decadal prediction systems, respectively. The prediction skill varies seasonally, peaking for forecasts initialized in January and verifying in September due to the winter intensification of North Pacific atmospheric forcing. We show that strong large-scale atmospheric anomalies generate deterministic oceanic forcing (i.e., Rossby waves), leading to skillful long-lead KE forecasts. These atmospheric anomalies also drive Ekman convergence/divergence that forms ocean memory, by sequestering thermal anomalies deep into the winter mixed layer that re-emerge in the subsequent autumn. The SPEAR forecasts capture the recent negative-to-positive transition of the KE phase in 2017, projecting a continued positive phase through 2022.

How to cite: Joh, Y., Delworth, T., Wittenberg, A., Cooke, W., Yang, X., Zeng, F., Jia, L., Lu, F., Johnson, N., Kapnick, S., Rosati, A., Zhang, L., and McHugh, C.: Seasonal-to-decadal variability and predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in the GFDL Coupled Ensemble Reanalysis and Forecasting system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6756, 2022.

EGU22-6767 | Presentations | CL5.3.2 | Highlight

Long-term climate prediction for Ireland and its surrounding 

Stephen Ogungbenro, Catherine O'Beirne, and André Düsterhus

Ireland is bordering the North Atlantic, and its climate is dominated by its climate modes on short to longer timescales. The Atlantic low-pressure systems, Jetstream variabilities and airmasses are features of the atmospheric circulation, which also contribute to the climate this region.  So, a long-term climate prediction of Ireland is majorly controlled by the ocean, and by other atmospheric components.

The Ocean has shown good capabilities for decadal to multi-decadal climate predictions, hence, our study adapted a coupled model to investigate seasonal changes in the climate on annual to multi-annual timescales within the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM).  Initialized prediction is extended to multi-decadal timescale up onto twenty lead years, and we study prediction capabilities for common climate variables in and around , by identifying major drivers and documenting their prediction skills.  Our results have shown prediction skill for surface temperature over longer timescales, and we explore these capabilities for other variables of interest.  This study opens new opportunities for better long-term predictions of climate components in the region, and our results are relevant for strategic planning.

How to cite: Ogungbenro, S., O'Beirne, C., and Düsterhus, A.: Long-term climate prediction for Ireland and its surrounding, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6767, 2022.

EGU22-7037 | Presentations | CL5.3.2 | Highlight

Destabilizing the Earth’s thermostat: Riverine alkalinity responses to climate change 

Nele Lehmann, Tobias Stacke, Sebastian Lehmann, Hugues Lantuit, John Gosse, Chantal Mears, Jens Hartmann, and Helmuth Thomas

Alkalinity generation from rock weathering is thought to modulate the Earth’s climate at geological time scales. Here, we use global alkalinity data paired with consistent measurements of erosion rates to develop an empirically-based model for riverine alkalinity concentration, demonstrating the impact of both erosion (i.e. erosion rate) and climate (i.e. temperature) on alkalinity generation, globally. We show that alkalinity generation from carbonate rocks is very responsive to temperature and that the weathering flux to the ocean will be significantly altered by climate warming as early as the end of this century, constituting a sudden feedback of ocean CO2 sequestration to climate. While we anticipate that climate warming under a low emissions scenario will induce a reduction in terrestrial alkalinity flux for mid-latitudes (-1.3 t(bicarbonate) a-1 km-2) until the end of the century, resulting in a temporary reduction in CO2 sequestration, we expect an increase (+1.6 t(bicarbonate) a-1 km-2) under a high emissions scenario, causing an additional short-term CO2 sink at decadal timescales.

How to cite: Lehmann, N., Stacke, T., Lehmann, S., Lantuit, H., Gosse, J., Mears, C., Hartmann, J., and Thomas, H.: Destabilizing the Earth’s thermostat: Riverine alkalinity responses to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7037, 2022.

EGU22-7652 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Towards operational climate prediction: ENSO-related variability as simulated in a set of state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems 

Roberto Suarez-Moreno, Lea Svendsen, Ingo Bethke, Martin P. King, Ping-Gin Chiu, and Tarkan A. Bilge

In the last decade, high demands from stakeholders and policymakers have driven unprecedented research efforts directed to improve climate predictability. Nevertheless, attempts to get operational climate predictions on seasonal time scales have been far from skillful for a long time. Based on sources of predictability from the ocean, atmosphere and land processes, current state-of-the-art prediction systems are approaching operational predictability. This work examines and compares the ability of different prediction systems to simulate the variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ENSO-forced response of hydroclimate variability in the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) region. Seasonal hindcasts derived from two generations of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-ME and NorESM2-MM) are used in addition to C3S data to generate time series of year-to-year variability that are validated against observational data. Our results reveal both the advantages and the limitations of these prediction systems to simulate ENSO-related variability, identifying model biases that prevent skillful predictability. Further efforts must be aimed at mitigating these biases in order to achieve fully operational predictions of paramount importance for the benefit of society.

How to cite: Suarez-Moreno, R., Svendsen, L., Bethke, I., King, M. P., Chiu, P.-G., and Bilge, T. A.: Towards operational climate prediction: ENSO-related variability as simulated in a set of state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7652, 2022.

EGU22-8031 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Multi-model comparison of carbon cycle predictability in initialized perfect-model simulations 

Aaron Spring, Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Raffaele Bernardello, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Etienne Tourigny, Juliette Mignot, Filippa Fransner, Jerry Tjiputra, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Thomas Frölicher, and Michio Watanabe

Predicting carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 can constrain the expected next-year atmospheric CO2 growth rate and thereby allow to independently monitor total anthropogenic CO2 emission rates. Several studies have established predictive skill in retrospective forecasts of carbon fluxes. These studies are usually backed by perfect-model simulations of single models showing the origins of predictive skill in carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Yet, a comprehensive multi-model comparison of perfect-model predictions, which can be valuable in explaining differences in retrospective predictions, is still lacking. Moreover, as of now, we don't have sufficient understanding of how well do the models predict their own integrated carbon cycles and how congruent this predictability is across models.

Here, we show the predictive skill of land and ocean carbon fluxes as well as atmospheric CO2 concentration in seven Earth-System-Models. Our first results indicate predictive skill of globally aggregated carbon fluxes of 2±1 years and atmospheric CO2 of 3±2 years. However, the regional patterns, hotspots and origins of predictive skill diverge among models. This heterogeneity explains the regional differences found in existing retrospective forecasts and backs the overall consistent predictability time-scales at global scale.

How to cite: Spring, A., Li, H., Ilyina, T., Bernardello, R., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Tourigny, E., Mignot, J., Fransner, F., Tjiputra, J., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Frölicher, T., and Watanabe, M.: Multi-model comparison of carbon cycle predictability in initialized perfect-model simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8031, 2022.

EGU22-8038 | Presentations | CL5.3.2 | Highlight

Global carbon budget variations in emission-driven earth system model predictions 

Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, and Julia Pongratz

Predictions of the variations in anthropogenic global carbon budget (GCB), i.e., CO2 emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and land reservoirs, is crucial to constrain the global carbon cycle and climate change of the past and facilitate their prediction and projection into the future. Global carbon project assesses the GCB every year by taking into account available datasets and stand-alone model component simulations. The utilization of different data sources leads to an unclosed budget, i.e., budget imbalance. We propose a novel approach to assess the GCB in decadal prediction systems based on emission-driven earth system models (ESMs). Such a fully coupled prediction system enables a closed carbon budgeting and therefore provides an additional line of evidence for the ongoing assessments of the GCB.

As ESMs have their own mean state and internal variability, we assimilate ocean and atmospheric observational and reanalysis data into Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to reconstruct the actual evolution of climate and carbon cycle towards to the real world. In the emission-driven model configuration, the carbon cycle changes in response to the physical state changes, in the meanwhile, the feedback of atmospheric CO2 changes to physics are also considered via interactive carbon cycle. Our reconstructions capture the observed GCB variations in the past decades. They show high correlations relative to the assessments from the global carbon project of 0.75, 0.75 and 0.97 for atmospheric CO2 growth, air-land CO2 fluxes and air-sea CO2 fluxes, respectively. Retrospective predictions starting from the reconstruction show promising predictive skill for the global carbon cycle up to 5 years for the air-sea CO2 fluxes and up to 2 years for the air-land CO2 fluxes and atmospheric carbon growth rate. Furthermore, evolution in atmospheric CO2 concentration in comparing to satellite and in-situ observations show robust skill in reconstruction and next-year prediction.  

How to cite: Li, H., Ilyina, T., Loughran, T., and Pongratz, J.: Global carbon budget variations in emission-driven earth system model predictions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8038, 2022.

EGU22-8624 | Presentations | CL5.3.2 | Highlight

Seasonal prediction of North American wintertime cold extremes in GFDL SPEAR forecast system 

Liwei Jia, Thomas Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, William Cooke, Nathaniel Johnson, and Andrew Wittenberg

Skillful prediction of wintertime cold extremes on seasonal time scales is beneficial for multiple sectors. This study demonstrates that North American cold extremes, measured by the frequency of cold days in winter, are predictable several months in advance in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s SPEAR seasonal (Seamless system for Prediction and EArth system Research) forecast system. Two predictable components of cold extremes over North American land areas are found to be skillfully predicted on seasonal scales. One is a trend component, which shows a continent-wide decrease in the frequency of cold extremes and is attributable to external radiative forcing. This trend component is predictable at least 9 months ahead. The other predictable component displays a dipole structure over North America, with negative signs in the northwest and positive signs in the southeast. This dipole component is predictable with significant correlation skill for 2 months and is a response to the central Pacific El Nino as revealed from SPEAR AMIP-like simulations. 

How to cite: Jia, L., Delworth, T., Yang, X., Cooke, W., Johnson, N., and Wittenberg, A.: Seasonal prediction of North American wintertime cold extremes in GFDL SPEAR forecast system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8624, 2022.

EGU22-9618 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Processes of interannual internal variability of the CO2 flux at the air-sea interface in IPSLCM6A 

Matthew Menary, Juliette Mignot, Laurent Bopp, and Lester Kwiatkowski

In order to improve our ability to predict the near-term evolution of climate, it may be important to accurately predict the evolution of atmospheric CO2, and thus carbon sinks. Following on from process-driven improvements of decadal predictions in physical oceanography, we focus on improving our understanding of the internal processes and variables driving CO2 uptake by the North Atlantic ocean. Specifically, we use the CMIP6 model IPSLCM6A to investigate the drivers of ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux variability in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG) on seasonal to decadal timescales. We find that DpCO2 (CO2 partial pressure difference between atmosphere and ocean) variability dominates over sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) variability on all timescales within the NA SPG. Meanwhile, at the ice-edge, there are significant roles for both ice concentration and surface winds in driving the overall CO2 flux changes. Investigating the interannual DpCO2 variability further, we find that this variability is itself driven largely by variability in simulated mixed layer depths in the northern SPG. On the other hand, SSTs show an important contribution to DpCO2 variability in the southern SPG and on longer (decadal) timescales. Initial extensions into a multi-model context show similar results. By determining the key regions and processes important for skilful decadal predictions of ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes, we aim to both improve confidence in these predictions as well as highlight key targets for climate model improvement. 

How to cite: Menary, M., Mignot, J., Bopp, L., and Kwiatkowski, L.: Processes of interannual internal variability of the CO2 flux at the air-sea interface in IPSLCM6A, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9618, 2022.

EGU22-9719 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Seasonal Forecasting of Horn of Africa’s Long Rains Using Physics-Guided Machine Learning 

Victoria Deman, Akash Koppa, and Diego Miralles

The Horn of Africa is known to be prone to climate impacts; the frequent occurrence of droughts and floods creates vulnerable conditions in the region. Gaining knowledge on (sub-)seasonal weather prediction and generating more reliable long-term forecasts is an important asset in building resilience. Most of the region is characterized by a bimodal precipitation cycle with rainfall seasons in boreal spring (March–May), termed the long rains, and boreal autumn (October–November), termed the short rains. Previous studies on seasonal forecasting focused mostly on empirical linear regression methods using information from ocean–atmosphere modes. To date, the potential of more complex methods, such as machine learning approaches, in improving seasonal precipitation predictability in the Horn of Africa still remains understudied. 

 

In this study, machine learning models targeting precipitation during the long rains are developed. The focus on the long rains is motivated by the fact that it is the main rain season in the region and the sources of predictability have proven to be more difficult to pin down. The long rain season has a weak internal coherence and looking at the months separately has proven to enhance prediction skill. Therefore, machine learning models are constructed for the different months (March, April, and May) separately at lead times of 1–3 months. Following an extensive survey of literature, the predictors of the long rain precipitation at seasonal timescales selected in this study include coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillation indices (such as MJO, ENSO and PDO), regions of zonal winds over 200mb and 850mb and sea-surface temperature (SST) regions with strong correlation to long rain precipitation. Further, a selection of additional terrestrial and oceanic predictors is guided by Lagrangian transport modeling, used to identify the regions sourcing moisture during the long rains. This set of predictors include soil moisture, land surface temperature, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI) and SST, which are averaged over the climatological source region of long rain precipitation. Finally, we provide new insights into the predictability of long rain precipitation at seasonal timescales by analyzing the relative importance of the different predictors used for developing the machine learning model.

How to cite: Deman, V., Koppa, A., and Miralles, D.: Seasonal Forecasting of Horn of Africa’s Long Rains Using Physics-Guided Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9719, 2022.

EGU22-9921 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Understanding intermodel differences in land carbon sink projections 

Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Vincent Humphrey, Laibao Liu, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

Over the last decades, land ecosystems have removed from the atmosphere approximately one third of anthropogenic carbon emissions, highlighting the importance of the evolution of the land carbon sink for projected climate change. Nevertheless, the latest land carbon sink projections from multiple Earth system models show large differences, even for a policy-relevant scenario with mean global warming by the end of the century below 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions. We hypothesize that this intermodel uncertainty originates from model differences in the sensitivities of annual net biome production (NBP) to (i) the CO2 fertilization effect, and to the annual anomalies in growing season (ii) air temperature and (iii) soil moisture, as well as model differences in long-term average (iv) air temperature and (v) soil moisture. Using multiple linear regression and a resampling technique we quantify the individual contributions of these five terms for explaining the cumulative NBP anomaly of each model relative to the ensemble mean. Differences in the three sensitivity terms contribute the most, however, differences in average temperature and soil moisture also have sizeable contributions for some models. We find that the sensitivities of NBP to temperature and soil moisture anomalies, particularly in the tropics, explain approximately half of the deficit relative to the ensemble mean for the two models with the lowest carbon sink (ACCESS-ESM1-5 and UKESM1-0-LL) and half of the surplus for the two models with the highest sink (CESM2 and NorESM2-LM). In addition, year-to-year variations in NBP are more related to variations in soil moisture than air temperature across most models and regions, although several models indicate a stronger relation totemperature variations in the core of the Amazon. Overall, our study advances our understanding of why land carbon sink projections from Earth system models differ globally and across regions, which can guide efforts to reduce the underlying uncertainties.

How to cite: Padrón, R. S., Gudmundsson, L., Humphrey, V., Liu, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Understanding intermodel differences in land carbon sink projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9921, 2022.

EGU22-10228 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Near-term prediction of the global carbon cycle using EC-Earth3-CC, the Carbon Cycle version of the EC-Earth3 Earth System Model 

Etienne Tourigny, Raffaele Bernardello, Valentina Sicardi, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich Robert, Vladimir Lapin, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Roberto Bilbao, Arndt Meier, Hongmei Li, and Tatiana Ilyina

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are associated with global warming in the late 20th century and beyond. Climate-carbon feedbacks will likely result in a higher airborne fraction of emitted CO2 in the future. However, the variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate is largely controlled by natural variability and is poorly understood. This can interfere with the attribution  of slowing CO2 growth rates  to reducing emissions during the implementation of the Paris Agreement. There is thus a need to both improve our understanding of the processes controlling the global carbon cycle and establish a near-term prediction system of the climate and carbon cycle.

As part of the 4C (Carbon Cycle Interactions in the Current Century) project, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is implementing a new system for near-term prediction of the climate and carbon cycle interactions using EC-Earth3-CC, the Carbon Cycle version of the EC-Earth3 Earth System Model. This new system is based on the existing operational climate prediction system developed by the BSC, contributing to the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update. EC-Earth3-CC comprises the IFS atmospheric model, the NEMO ocean model, the PISCES ocean biogeochemistry model, the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, the TM5 global atmospheric transport model and the OASIS3 coupler. The system uses initial conditions from in-house ocean biogeochemical and land/vegetation reconstructions based on global atmospheric/ocean reanalyses. By performing retrospective decadal predictions of ocean and land carbon uptake we are able to evaluate the performance of the system in predicting CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

We will present results from the latest concentration- and emission-driven retrospective predictions (or hindcasts) using our system, highlighting the skill and biases of the carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2. We will also present future predictions for 2022 and beyond, a prototype for the operational system for prediction of future atmospheric CO2.

How to cite: Tourigny, E., Bernardello, R., Sicardi, V., Ortega, P., Ruprich Robert, Y., Lapin, V., Acosta Navarro, J. C., Bilbao, R., Meier, A., Li, H., and Ilyina, T.: Near-term prediction of the global carbon cycle using EC-Earth3-CC, the Carbon Cycle version of the EC-Earth3 Earth System Model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10228, 2022.

EGU22-10245 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Drivers of the natural CO2 fluxes at global scale as simulated by CMIP6 simulations 

Veronica Martin-Gomez, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Raffaele Bernardello, and Margarida Samso Cabre

The implementation of the Paris Agreement should translate into a decrease of the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades due to the reduction in emissions by signing countries. However, the detection of this decrease and its attribution to mitigation measures will be challenging for two reasons: 1) the internal variability of the Earth system may temporarily offset this signal and 2) countries may not maintain their promises. Unless absolute transparency on emissions is adopted by all signing parties, without a robust estimate of the impact of internal variability on the atmospheric CO2 changes, there is no independent way to verify their claims. 

Historical reconstructions and future predictions of global carbon cycle dynamics with predictive systems based on state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) represent an emerging field of research. With the continuous improvement of ESMs and of these predictive systems, these tools might have the potential of becoming skillful enough in their predictions to represent a useful instrument for policy makers in their effort to monitor and verify the progress of the Paris Agreement’s implementation. 

Here we analyze the main sources of the atmospheric CO2 concentration variability at inter-annual timescale due to internal climate processes in three ESMs, which are used in carbon cycle prediction systems: EC-Earth3-CC, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR. These results are then compared to the available CMIP6 simulations database.

Investigating the surface CO2 fluxes, we find that land flux inter-annual variations are 10 times higher than ocean flux variations. This has direct consequences in terms of predictability since the land surface processes are generally less predictable than the ocean ones. The regions contributing the most to the variations are Australia, South America and sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that those are the most important regions to simulate correctly in order to constrain the atmospheric CO2 variations. Interestingly, all those regions are linked to tropical SST variations resembling El Niño Southern Oscillation variability.

Investigating the ocean CO2 fluxes, we find that the regions contributing the most to the global CO2 variations are the Southern Ocean followed by the tropical Pacific.

Therefore, from the analysis of the CMIP6 simulations, we conclude that the main internal driver of the global atmospheric CO2 fluctuations is the tropical Pacific. If the ratio between land and ocean CO2 variations is realistically simulated by the CMIP6 ESMs, this implies that the predictability of the atmospheric CO2 variations due to internal climate processes is tied to the predictability of the tropical Pacific.

How to cite: Martin-Gomez, V., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Bernardello, R., and Samso Cabre, M.: Drivers of the natural CO2 fluxes at global scale as simulated by CMIP6 simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10245, 2022.

EGU22-10340 | Presentations | CL5.3.2 | Highlight

On the seasonal prediction and predictability of winter temperature swings over North America 

Xiaosong Yang, Tom delworth, Liwei Jia, Nathaniel Johnson, Feiyu Lu, and Colleen MacHugh

A novel temperature swing index (TSI) is formed to measure the extreme surface temperature variations associated with the winter extratropical storms. The seasonal prediction skill of the winter TSI over North America was assessed versus ERA5 data using GFDL’s new SPEAR seasonal prediction system. The location with the skillful TSI prediction shows distinctive geographic pattern from that with skillful seasonal mean temperature prediction, thus the skillful prediction of TSI provides additive predictable climate information beyond the traditional seasonal mean temperature prediction. The source of the seasonal TSI prediction can be attributed to year-to-year variations of ENSO, North Pacific Oscillation and NAO. These results point towards providing skillful prediction of higher-order statistical information related to winter temperature extremes, thus enriching the seasonal forecast products for the research community and decision makers beyond the seasonal mean.

How to cite: Yang, X., delworth, T., Jia, L., Johnson, N., Lu, F., and MacHugh, C.: On the seasonal prediction and predictability of winter temperature swings over North America, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10340, 2022.

In the Northwest Atlantic (NWA), including the Labrador Sea, interactions between the atmosphere, ocean circulation, and sea ice play a critical role in regulating the global climate system. The ocean and climate in this region observe rapid and unprecedented, anthropogenically forced changes to the physical environment and biosphere with downstream effects. Future projections of NWA circulation and sea ice can help address pressing questions about these changes and mitigate their potential impacts on the global carbon cycle, coastal communities, and transportation. However, the spatial resolution of current climate models is often insufficient to accurately represent important features in the NWA, such as the location and strength of the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current and their dynamical interactions. This can lead to biases in the model’s mean state, and a misrepresentation of the temporal and spatial scales of ocean variability, e.g., mesoscale eddies, deep convection. Regional ocean models with grid spacing <10 km, forced by global climate simulations, can be used to improve estimates of historical and future circulation and hydrography. However, given the limited spatial resolution and biases in global climate models, a challenge of downscaling their simulations is the appropriate reconstruction of the forcing fields.

Here, we present preliminary results of future projections of NWA circulation and sea ice based on downscaled global climate simulations. These projections are performed using an eddy-resolving, coupled circulation-sea ice model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). We will focus on the value of correcting biases in the mean and variance of the forcing. We further explore the need of including missing spatial and temporal scales in the atmospheric forcing that are not captured by the global models. Implications for the design of model experiments for future projections will be discussed.

How to cite: Renkl, C. and Oliver, E.: Bias Correction and Spatiotemporal Scales for Downscaling Future Projections of Northwest Atlantic Circulation and Sea Ice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10467, 2022.

EGU22-10473 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Proposal for an international effort aimed at quantifying the impact of a realistic representation of vegetation/land cover on seasonal climate forecasts (GLACE-VEG) 

Andrea Alessandri, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, and Constantin Ardilouze

Several works have been showing the importance of vegetation/land cover in forcing interannual climate anomalies and in modulating the influence from soil moisture and/or snow. The aim of this initiative is to exploit the latest available observational data over land to improve the representation of vegetation and land cover that can positively contribute to skillful short-term (seasonal) climate predictions. However, the lack of observations in the past has often determined diverging representations of the processes related to land cover and vegetation among different land surface models. It is therefore fundamental to use the multi-model approach.

A coordinated multi-model prediction experiment will be designed to demonstrate the improvements of the predictions at seasonal time scale due to the enhanced representation of land cover and vegetation. Building from already established efforts (e.g. SNOWGLACE, LS3MIP, ESM-snowMIP, LS4P, CONFESS) we will involve the climate prediction community to develop a common experimental protocol for a multi-model coordinated experiment for the robust evaluation of the performance effects on state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems. In addition, the verification of the coordinated multi-model predictions will provide understanding and guidance about the better approaches to pursue in the future to model land-vegetation processes.

The initial group of cooperative institutions include ISAC-CNR, ECMWF, Meteo France, while other relevant modeling groups already expressed interest to join. It is expected that a good representation of the centres previously involved in GLACE-2 initiative will participate in this coordinated effort.

The details of experimental protocol will be implemented during the second half of 2022. Simulations are expected to begin in 2023. To facilitate the spread of the initiative among the prediction community and the engagement with stakeholders, a proposal for a new Community Activity in the framework of GEO has been submitted. The initiative is also supported by the GEWEX-GLASS panel that will push it further within the related community.

How to cite: Alessandri, A., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., and Ardilouze, C.: Proposal for an international effort aimed at quantifying the impact of a realistic representation of vegetation/land cover on seasonal climate forecasts (GLACE-VEG), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10473, 2022.

EGU22-10621 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Some key challenges for subseasonal to decadal prediction research 

William Merryfield, Johanna Baehr, Lauriane Batté, Asmerom Beraki, Leon Hermanson, Debra Hudson, Stephanie Johnson, June-Yi Lee, François Massonnet, Ángel Muñoz, Yvan Orsolini, Hong-Li Ren, Ramiro Saurral, Doug Smith, Yuhei Takaya, and Krishnan Raghavan

The practice of initialized subseasonal, seasonal and decadal climate prediction has matured considerably in recent years, with real-time subseasonal and decadal multi-system ensembles joining those established previously for the seasonal to multi-seasonal range. However, substantial scientific, modelling, and informational challenges remain that must be overcome in order to more fully realize the potential for such predictions to serve societal needs. This presentation will examine five such challenges that the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP) has identified as crucial for further advancing capabilities for translating the inherent predictability of the Earth system into actionable predictive information. Surmounting these challenges will bring nearer an envisaged future in which global users have access to such information specific to individual needs, across Earth system components and on a continuum of time scales, with degrees of confidence, limitations and uncertainties clearly indicated, as well as tools to guide optimal actions.

How to cite: Merryfield, W., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Beraki, A., Hermanson, L., Hudson, D., Johnson, S., Lee, J.-Y., Massonnet, F., Muñoz, Á., Orsolini, Y., Ren, H.-L., Saurral, R., Smith, D., Takaya, Y., and Raghavan, K.: Some key challenges for subseasonal to decadal prediction research, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10621, 2022.

Over East Asia, reliable forecasts of boreal spring droughts and pluvials can provide time window of opportunities to mitigate their adverse effects. Here, we aim to assess the seasonal prediction skill of boreal spring droughts and pluvials over East Asia (EA), using NMME and atmospheric-only global climate model (AGCM) simulations. Results show that NMME models show a better prediction skill of pluvials than that of droughts, indicating asymmetry in the prediction skill. This asymmetric tendency is also found in the prediction skill of sea surface temperature (SST) during the corresponding drought and pluvial years. Results from the AGCM simulations show asymmetry in the prediction skills of spring droughts and pluvials, indicating the limited predictability of SST-teleconnections in the model physics. The findings of this study prioritize a need to improve the representation of sea-air interactions during drought years in the current climate models.

How to cite: Kim, B.-H. and Kam, J.: Asymmetry in the prediction skills of NMME models for springtime droughts and pluvials over East Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10950, 2022.

EGU22-11562 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Effects of aerosols reduction on the Asian summer monsoon prediction: the case of summer 2020 

Annalisa Cherchi, Andrea Alessandri, Etienne Tourigny, Juan C Acosta Navarro, Pablo Ortega, Paolo Davini, Danila Volpi, Franco Catalano, and Twan van Noije

Northern Hemisphere anthropogenic aerosols influence Southeast and East Asian summer monsoon precipitation. In the late 20th century, both the East Asian and the South Asian summer monsoons weakened because of increased emissions of anthropogenic aerosols over Asia, counteracting the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Changes in the anthropogenic aerosols burden in the Northern Hemisphere, and specifically over the Asian continent, may also have affected the sub-seasonal evolution of the summer monsoon. During the spring 2020, when restrictions to contain the spread of the coronavirus were implemented worldwide, reduced emissions of gases and aerosols were detected also over Asia.

Following on from the above and using the EC-Earth3 coupled model, a case-study forecast for summer 2020 (May 1st start date) has been designed and produced with and without the reduced atmospheric forcing due to covid-19 in the SSP2-4.5 baseline scenario, as estimated and adopted within CMIP6 DAMIP covidMIP experiments (hereinafter “covid-19 forcing”). The forecast ensembles (sensitivity and control experiments, meaning with and without covid-19 forcing) consist of 60 members each to better account for the internal variability (noise) and to maximize the capability to identify the effects of the reduced emissions.

The analysis focuses on  the effects of the covid-19 forcing, in particular the reduction of anthropogenic aerosols, on the forecasted evolution of the monsoon, with a specific focus on the performance in predicting the summer precipitation over India and over other parts of  South and East Asia. Changes in the performance of the prediction for specific aspects of the monsoon, like the onset and the length of the season, are evaluated as well.

How to cite: Cherchi, A., Alessandri, A., Tourigny, E., Acosta Navarro, J. C., Ortega, P., Davini, P., Volpi, D., Catalano, F., and van Noije, T.: Effects of aerosols reduction on the Asian summer monsoon prediction: the case of summer 2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11562, 2022.

EGU22-12989 | Presentations | CL5.3.2

Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration 

Filippa Fransner, Marius Årthun, Ingo Bethke, François Counillon, Annette Samuelsen, Jerry Tjiputra, Are Olsen, and Noel Keenlyside

The predictability of phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is explored in the CMIP6 decadal prediction runs with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM1), together with satellite data and in situ measurements. The model successfully predicts a maximum in the observed phytoplankton abundance in 2007 up to five years in advance, which is associated with a strong predictive skill of 2007 minimum extent of the summer sea ice concentration. The underlying mechanism is an event of anomalously high heat transport into the Barents Sea that is seen both in the model and in situ observations. These results are an important step towards marine ecosystem predictions.

How to cite: Fransner, F., Årthun, M., Bethke, I., Counillon, F., Samuelsen, A., Tjiputra, J., Olsen, A., and Keenlyside, N.: Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12989, 2022.

EGU22-120 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

A Weighted Catchment View Approach for Evaluation of Euro Cordex Regional Climate Models 

Amin Minaei, Sara Todeschini, Robert Sitzenfrei, and Enrico Creaco

Climate change is increasingly affecting every aspect of human life on Earth. Many regional climate models (RCMs) have so far been developed to carefully assess this important phenomenon on specific regions. Hence, the functional evaluation of RCMs for simulating catchment climatic characteristics has been the target of many studies in the literature. To accomplish this task, many studies apply interpolation techniques (re-gridding, remapping and rescaling) for matching the resolutions of observations with the ones related to RCMs or vice versa. Moreover, they calculate arithmetic mean value of climatic data over a catchment for representing hydro-climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) of a catchment. This study proposes a novel approach that does not require any interpolation techniques for matching the resolutions, resulting in the improvement of RCM evaluations. In addition, the weighted average of data over a catchment is a comparison variable for the evaluation of RCMs, considering the different distribution of data´s geographical locations within a catchment. The weights for every data point are calculated based on the Thiessen polygon area of the corresponding point divided into the total area of catchment. To see the application of the method,10 RCMs captured from the European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO CORDEX) platform are evaluated by the proposed method on the river Chiese catchment located in the northeast of Italy, identifying the models with the appropriate performance for precipitation and temperature simulation of the catchment.

How to cite: Minaei, A., Todeschini, S., Sitzenfrei, R., and Creaco, E.: A Weighted Catchment View Approach for Evaluation of Euro Cordex Regional Climate Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-120, 2022.

The present study aims to analyse future changes in mean maximum and extreme temperature over India using 17 regional climate simulations from  CORDEX-SA experiment RCM ensembles at a spatial resolution of 0.5° x 0.5° for mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2099) future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The regional climate simulations of the three RCM ensembles namely IITM-RegCM4, SMHI-RCA4 and MPI-CSC-REMO2009 were first evaluated against observed seasonal maximum temperature (Mar-Jun) during historical period (1971-2005). The datasets were obtained from CCCR-IITM ESGF data node for the study period. The model performance was assessed using standard performance measure statistics such as mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean bias, percentage bias. The RCMs show warm and cold bias in simulating the climatological mean maximum temperature with mean bias ranging from to 8.43°C(warmest) to -37.29°C (coldest) by CNRM-CM5 RCM of IITM-RegCM4 ensemble and by CSIRO-Mk3.6 RCM of SMHI-RCA4 ensemble respectively over the country. Variance scaling bias correction method was applied to correct the bias associated with the RCMs which significantly reduced the RMSE of RCMs from 11.03 (SMHI-RCA4) and 9.17 (IITM-RegCM4) to around zero after bias correction. Future changes assessed in mean maximum temperature show an increase in the range of 0.5°C to 4.5°C during mid-term (2041-2060) and 0.6°C to 5.84°C long-term (2081-2099) future period while under RCP 8.5 the increase ranges from 0.88° C to 5.40° C for mid-term (2041-2060) and 1.31° C to 12.87° C for long-term (2081-2099) period. The most pronounced increase is observed in the northern, eastern and north-eastern region of the country in which highest rise was simulated by IPSL-CM5A-MR(SMHI-RCA4) in northern region of the country for both the scenarios. The study also analyses changes in different ET-SCI indices as a measure of extreme temperature which have increased multi-fold in the future over the country. The study identifies the regions and magnitude of significant climate change signal expected in the mean maximum and extreme temperature in the future. It enhances the understanding and quantification of inter-model uncertainties within CORDEX-SA experiment RCM simulations. The outcomes of the study have both scientific and societal values in building resilience and informed efforts to avert the severe implications posed by increasing extreme temperature and heat events over India.

 

Keywords: Future Climate Change, CORDEX-SA, Regional Climate Model, Bias Correction, Extreme weather events

How to cite: Singh, S. and Mall, R. K.: CORDEX-SA Regional Climate Model Ensemble Performance Evaluation and Future Climate Change over India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-145, 2022.

Systematic biases are still inherent in the newest generation of regional climate models at convection-permitting scale. This complicates the direct application of such simulation results for impact studies with vegetation models. Here, we investigate the impact of a statistical bias correction method (quantile mapping) after Piani et al. (2010) on the climate change signal (CCS) of extreme climate indices in time and space-distribution from convection-permitting climate simulations based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. In the frame of the Multisectoral analysis of climate and land use change impacts on pollinators, plant diversity and crops yields (MAPPY), transient regional climate model simulations are performed with COSMO-CLM (v5.16) at a spatial horizontal resolution of 3 km over central Europe from 1980 to 2070. CCSs are computed from the ETCCDI set of climate extreme indices for the “near” (2021-2050) and the “far” (2041-2070) future relative to the reference period 1981-2010.

We find that model biases influence the spatial distribution of climate extremes, even though the mean properties are not heavily changed. However important differences are observed for the total precipitation amount and for heavy precipitation indices. Bias-corrected precipitation data show an increase of 3.5% for the “far” future in the annual total precipitation relative to the reference period. Non bias-corrected data would instead suggest a lower increase of 0.7%. The frequency of heavy precipitation days is also enhanced in the bias-corrected data. For example the amount of rainfall which exceeds the 95 and 99 percentiles for the “far” future is 12.7% more than the reference period. The projections from the non bias-corrected data would instead predict an increase of 9.4% and 9.2% respectively.

The bias-corrected simulation data for the temperature parameters suggest generally warmer winters for both the “near” and “far” future periods with a dampening of the extreme temperatures. As an example, the maximum values of the daily maximum temperatures in the “far” future are in average 1.6 °C warmer relative to the reference period. The non bias-corrected data would instead return an higher value of about 1.1 °C (i.e. 2.7 °C). Vice versa the minimum values of the daily minimum temperatures in the “far” future are in average 2.2 °C warmer relative to the reference period, whereas the non bias-corrected data give a lower increase of 1.8 °C. The dampening of extreme temperatures is also consistent with other observations such as the percentage of warm days, where the maximum temperature is above the 90 percentile or the number of frost days, where the minimum temperature is below 0 °C. In both latter cases the bias-corrected data give lower values with respect to the non bias-corrected data with a relative difference of about 30%.

We conclude that systematic biases in regional climate models can have a significant impact on climate change signals both in space distribution and absolute values. Yet the statistical robustness of our results, the seasonal variability of some extremes as well as the dependency on the resolution scale is currently under investigation.

How to cite: Ugolotti, A. and Tölle, M.: Impact of statistical bias correction on the climate change signal of extreme climate indices from convection-permitting climate simulations over central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-372, 2022.

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in history. On the one hand, climate models can be useful tools for providing information on climate change, but on the other hand climate model simulations’ outputs are prone to biases compared to observations, which can be somewhat overcome by different bias‑adjustment techniques. Being the European branches of the international initiative called COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX provide regional climate model (RCM) simulations targeting Europe. Present research focuses on precipitation and temperature change over sub-regions within the Carpathian Basin based on raw and bias-adjusted RCM data under the RCP8.5 scenario. The quality controlled and homogenized CARPATCLIM served as reference dataset for the bias-adjustment. The investigations explore temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2070-2099) with respect to 1976-2005. The comparative research seeks answer the question: how climate change will manifest in heavy rainfall and other temperature related climate indices over regions characterized by different topography?

How to cite: Torma, C. Z., Simon, C., and Kis, A.: On the evidence of orographic modulation of regional fine scale climate change signals based on raw and bias-adjusted CORDEX data: The Carpathians, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-845, 2022.

EGU22-2065 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Regional climate modeling for Georgia with RegCM4.7 

Mariam Elizbarashvili, Tímea Kalmár, Magda Tsintsadze, and Tsezari Mshvenieradze

In this study, the latest version of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model RegCM4.7.0 is used to simulate climate of Georgia for the period 1986-2005.

Georgia is the mountainous country located in the south-western part of the Greater Caucasus. Its area is 69.875 km2. Mountains cover significant part of the territory 54% of them is located at 1,000 m elevation. From the west Georgia is washed by the Black Sea, from the south it borders with Turkey and Armenia, from the south-east – with Azerbaijan and from the north – with the Russian Federation.

Georgia displays diverse climate and vegetation types: there are almost all climate types from high mountains eternal snow and glaciers to steppe continental climate of eastern Georgia and the Black Sea coastal subtropical humid climate.

To simulate climate with high horizontal resolution and represent more special details for the complex terrain of Georgia the double-nested dynamic downscaling method has been used. First, RegCM was driven by ERA-Interim data at a grid spacing of 50 km. For 50 km resolution simulation, we defined central latitude and central longitude of model domain clat=42.27, clon=42.70 degrees as well as 30 number of points in the N/S direction and 60 number of points in the E/W direction. The 12-km resolution RegCM simulation was nested in the simulation at 50 km resolution. For 12 km resolution simulation, we chose central latitude and central longitude of model domain clat=42, clon =43 degrees as well as 48 N/S 100 E/W points. We selected domain size to be large enough to account for the relevant large-scale processes (such as the large-scale flow modulations due to orographic features and water bodies) but at the same time small enough in size to minimize the use of computational resources.  

We have used the default BATS (Biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme) land surface parameterization scheme, Emanuel cumulus convective parameterization scheme, SUBEX (Sub-grid Explicit Moisture Scheme) moisture scheme and Holstlag planetary boundary layer scheme for the simulations.

The simulated surface annual and seasonal air temperature and precipitation as well as extreme climate events are compared with Climatic Research Unit (CRU), ERA5 reanalysis, GPCP data sets. For extreme events analyzes, we chose and used some indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, recommended by the World Meteorological Organization.

This work was supported by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation of Georgia (SRNSFG) № FR-19-8110.

 

How to cite: Elizbarashvili, M., Kalmár, T., Tsintsadze, M., and Mshvenieradze, T.: Regional climate modeling for Georgia with RegCM4.7, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2065, 2022.

EGU22-2640 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Spatially distributed Added Value Index and Climate Change Downscaling Signal for convection permitting scale simulations 

James Ciarlo, Erika Coppola, Emanuela Pichelli, and Paolo Stocchi and the FPS-Conv Team

A new metric that quantifies Added Value (AV) was developed that compares the difference within the entire probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and its driving General Circulation Model (GCM) with a high-resolution observation source, at every grid point, to obtain a spatial distribution of AV. This is important to assess the validity of the computationally expensive process of downscaling, especially for Convection Permitting Models (CPMs). The method can be adapted to focus on the tail-end of the distribution, since GCMs struggle to resolve precipitation extremes. To achieve this, the threshold value of the percentile of interest (for example, the 95th percentile) is obtained from the observation source and then applied to the PDF data as a filter, after which the corresponding AV can be obtained. This metric can also be adapted to assess the Climate Change Downscaling Signal (CCDS) of climate projections, by comparing to the corresponding historical data-set instead of an observation source.

This method is now being adapted to CPM simulations using a multi-model approach. The analysis is focused on both daily and hourly data from a 14-model ensemble of the ALP-3 domain using 5 high-resolution observation sources (GRIPHO for Italy; EURO4M for large alpine area; COMEPHORE for France; RADKLIM for Germany; and RdisaggH for Switzerland). The primary objective is to assess the added value of the CPM with the driving RCM, but a comparison to the GCM is also included. Preliminary results show that the CPM runs add value over the RCM, with possible emphasis in models/regions of lower RCM AV (requires confirmation by comparing RCMs to the driving GCMs). The analysis is will also focus on the CCDS metric of the near- and far-future simulations of the CPM, and the historical analysis is being replicated using hourly precipitation instead of daily.

How to cite: Ciarlo, J., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., and Stocchi, P. and the FPS-Conv Team: Spatially distributed Added Value Index and Climate Change Downscaling Signal for convection permitting scale simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2640, 2022.

This work is part of the CLIENT II project Drought-ADAPT, which overall objective is to provide climate services to local stakeholders in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. The focus of the project lies on various aspects of drought, its characteristics and causes under recent and future climate change, as the study area has been shown to be vulnerable in this regard.

An important component for this is the use of the regional climate model REMO, which simulates the historical period from 2000-2018 over Mainland Southeast Asia at 0.11° resolution. With this, the run differs from existing CORDEX-simulations which are available in a coarser resolution of 0.22°. For a proper validation with respect to spatio-temporal aspects of its climatology, a comparison of different gridded validation datasets of temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration is performed as these are important forcing variables for hydrological modeling. Finally, a simple form of bias adjustment is done to compensate systematic model errors and, thus, make the data available and usable for a hydrological model.

How to cite: Abel, D. and Paeth, H.: Validation of an RCM over Mainland Southeast Asia focusing on the needs of hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2827, 2022.

EGU22-3236 | Presentations | CL5.3.3 | Highlight

Future projections of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) using CORDEX-CORE and CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. 

Rita Nogherotto and Francesca Raffaele

The Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a meteorologically based index used worldwide to estimate fire danger. In the framework of the CORDEX-CORE project, we investigate how changes in relative humidity, wind, temperature and precipitation can act together in fire danger. Two regional climate models have been used at 0.22° resolution to downscale 3 global climate models from the CMIP5 project. We show results of the high resolution Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated for 9 CORDEX domains and for two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Mid-future (2041-2060) and Far-future (2081-2100)  fire danger changes are compared with those obtained using two ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global models. The index is projected to increase in those areas that are already affected by seasonal fires such as Spain and Southern Italy for the Mediterranean Basin, the central band of Brazil, Northern Chile, South Africa and Australia. Global and regional models FWI patterns mostly agree in the seasonal spatial distribution of fires but CORDEX-CORE simulations with their higher resolution are able to catch more in detail fires in areas not detected by global models simulations.

How to cite: Nogherotto, R. and Raffaele, F.: Future projections of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) using CORDEX-CORE and CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3236, 2022.

EGU22-4191 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Assessment of REgional MOdel REMO and its coupled version REMO-iMOVE over Central Asia 

Praveen Rai, Katrin Ziegler, Daniel Abel, Felix Pollinger, and Heiko Paeth

The climate over Central Asia has been investigated using the REMO (v2015) and its recent vegetation coupled version, REMO-iMOVE for the period of 2000-2015 at horizontal resolutions of 0.44° and 0.11°. Model evaluation is performed using the mean monthly bias patterns for temperature, precipitation, and leaf area index along with different statistical matrices. In comparison to the lower resolution of 0.44°, the spatial precipitation pattern at 0.11° is represented better. In the case of mean temperature, higher resolution simulation from both models tends to agree quite well with the validation dataset. Reduced bias in maximum and minimum temperature at 0.11° resolution is also observed over the study domain. There is improved temperature bias in REMO-iMOVE in comparison to the standard REMO version which has static vegetation while in the case of precipitation, the bias is larger in REMO-iMOVE. Since the iMOVE version is coupled to atmospheric and hydrological components, it has a clear advantage in capturing the vegetation cover and leaf area index better in comparison to the standalone REMO version. Overall, iMOVE is able to perform quite similar to REMO in simulating the mean climate of Central Asia but clearly advantageous in simulating vegetation parameters and temperature.

How to cite: Rai, P., Ziegler, K., Abel, D., Pollinger, F., and Paeth, H.: Assessment of REgional MOdel REMO and its coupled version REMO-iMOVE over Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4191, 2022.

EGU22-4879 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Evaluation of air stagnation periods using regional climate models over Europe 

Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Joren Van Nieuwenhuyse, Steven Caluwaerts, Jonathan De Deyn, Andy Delcloo, Rozemien De Troch, Rafiq Hamdi, and Piet Termonia

Due to its high population density and strong industrialisation, Europe is subject to a high degree of air pollution. Reliable information on current and future air quality (AQ) is therefore necessary to develop policies. This information can be based on regional climate models (RCMs) such as used in CORDEX where weather-related uncertainties are estimated using RCM ensemble. Air polution peaks often occur during stagnant atmospheric conditions. We validate EURO-CORDEX RCMs to reproduce stagnant periods characterized by the Horton atmospheric stability index. We first prove the index's relation with both average and extreme air pollutant concentrations. The spatio-temporal features of air stagnant periods over continental Europe are then compared with reanalysis data from ERA5 for 25 RCM models. Overall a satisfactorily agreement is found for the stagnant periods despite a systematically underestimated frequency and stagnation duration. This bias is tracked back to the behavior of a large group of models over orographically complex regions. We show how bias correction can be used to improve the average, the variability and the duration of stagnation periods. 

How to cite: Van Schaeybroeck, B., Van Nieuwenhuyse, J., Caluwaerts, S., De Deyn, J., Delcloo, A., De Troch, R., Hamdi, R., and Termonia, P.: Evaluation of air stagnation periods using regional climate models over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4879, 2022.

EGU22-5737 | Presentations | CL5.3.3 | Highlight

Exploring the potential of HAILCAST and LPI in km-resolution simulations over the Alpine-Adriatic region 

Ruoyi Cui, Nikolina Ban, Marie-Estelle Demory, and Christoph Schär

The Alpine and Adriatic regions are hotspots of frequent hail and lightning. Hail and lightning are associated with severe convective storms that happen under the large-scale forcing of surface fronts, upper-level fronts, convergence zones, or local thermal-topographic forcing. Convection-resolving models are run at the km-scale resolution, which improves the representation of topography. Moreover, they can explicitly resolve deep convection, thus reducing the uncertainties related to the use of deep convection parameterization in lower resolution models. Both aspects are beneficial for studying processes that drive severe convective storms over mountainous regions.

In this study, we analyze convection-resolving simulations of 8 heavy convective events performed with the COSMO-crCLIM model (GPU version of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling) at 2.2 km horizontal grid spacing over the Alpine-Adriatic region. The cases are selected according to their impacts (size of hailstones, number of lightning strikes and damages), and the simulations are driven by the ERA5 reanalysis. For the simulation of hail and lightning, we use the one-dimensional hail growth model HAILCAST and the lightning potential index (LPI) implemented into the COSMO model, and compare results with observed hail properties and lightning flashes. In addition, we look into key variables for hail formation, including temperature, humidity, CAPE and CIN, and bulk wind shear. By performing a detailed analysis, we identify several environments that are favorable for strong convection and associated hail and lightning, such as a "loaded-gun" sounding, conditionally unstable layer and intrusion of dry air aloft. Evaluation of model simulations with available observations demonstrates overall very good performance of the model for the simulation of precipitation, hail and lightning. However, results depend upon the predictability of the cases, with lower predictability for deep convection events driven by local thermal-topographic forcing. 

Our findings indicate that HAILCAST and LPI can diagnose hail and lightning associated with severe weather events. Recently, we have started to assess changes in the occurrence and severity of such events with multi-seasonal simulations under current and future climate conditions using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach.

How to cite: Cui, R., Ban, N., Demory, M.-E., and Schär, C.: Exploring the potential of HAILCAST and LPI in km-resolution simulations over the Alpine-Adriatic region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5737, 2022.

EGU22-5883 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Modelling the effects of Climate Change and Deforestation on Fire Risk in Tropical Borneo  

Taraka Davies-Barnard, Jennifer Catto, and Anna Harper

Fire in the peatlands and forests of Borneo is a significant environmental issue, with far reaching social and climatic consequences. The KaLi project aims to better understand fire risk in the Kalimantan region of Indonesia, and this part of the project focusses on the climatic risk. While fire severity and frequency are generally expected to increase with climate change, the unique climate and geography of Indonesia and the island of Borneo create heterogenous patterns of change. We ran simulations of RCP8.5 with and without deforestation using regional climate model RegCM4 with boundary conditions from a range of CMIP5 model simulations. These simulations provide high-resolution climate simulations that show the relative contribution of climate change and deforestation to the climatic risk of fire using the Fire Weather Index.

We find that climate and fire risk from climate are significantly affected by both climate change and deforestation, though not to the same extent. The surface temperature in the multi-model mean RCP8.5 simulation increases by ~4 degrees, and deforestation further increases the temperature by ~2 degrees. The climate effects of both RCP8.5 and deforestation are affected by the altitude. Precipitation, in particular, is higher above 500m in the deforestation scenario. Both deforestation and RCP8.5 increase the fire risk according to the Fire Weather Index. Deforestation causes a smaller increase than RCP8.5, but is locally controllable in a way that the carbon emissions causing climate change are not. These high-resolution simulations provide a guide to the most vulnerable areas of Borneo from climatic increases in fire risk, and complement efforts to understand the social aspects of fire risk that are a part of the KaLi project.

How to cite: Davies-Barnard, T., Catto, J., and Harper, A.: Modelling the effects of Climate Change and Deforestation on Fire Risk in Tropical Borneo , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5883, 2022.

EGU22-6015 | Presentations | CL5.3.3 | Highlight

Extreme wind projections over Europe from the Euro-CORDEX regional climate models 

Stefan Sobolowski and Stephen Outten

Extreme weather events represent one of the most visible and immediate hazards to society. Many of these types
of phenomena are projected to increase in intensity, duration or frequency as the climate warms. Of these extreme winds are
among the most damaging historically over Europe yet assessments of their future changes remain fraught with uncertainty.
This uncertainty arises due to both the rare nature of extreme wind events and the fact that most model are unable to faithfully
represent them. Here we take advantage of a 15 member ensemble of high resolution Euro-CORDEX simulations (12km)
and investigate projected changes in extreme winds using a peaks-over-threshold approach. Additionally we show that - de-
spite lingering model deficiencies and inadequate observational coverage - there is clear added value of the higher resolution
simulations over coarser resolution counterparts. Further, the spatial heterogeneity and highly localized nature is well captured.
Effects such as orographic interactions, drag due to urban areas, and even individual storm tracks over the oceans are clearly
visible. As such future changes also exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity. These results emphasise the need for careful case-by-
case treatment of extreme wind analysis, especially when done in a climate adaptation or decision making context. However,
for more general assessments the picture is more clear with increases in the return period (i.e. more frequent) extreme episodes
projected for Northern, Central and Southern Europe throughout the 21st century. While models continue to improve in their
representation of extreme winds, improved observational coverage is desperately needed to obtain more robust assessments of
extreme winds over Europe and elsewhere.

How to cite: Sobolowski, S. and Outten, S.: Extreme wind projections over Europe from the Euro-CORDEX regional climate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6015, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6015, 2022.

EGU22-6042 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Controls on projected climate extremes in two regional ensembles for the UK 

Chris Brierley, Clair Barnes, Theodore Keeping, and Richard Chandler

As part of the UK Climate Projections 2018, a perturbed physics ensemble of regional climate model simulations was created. Each of the 11 member was created using a variant of the Hadley Centre's global and regional models, using an RCP8.5 scenario and a Europe-wide 12km grid. Here we compare the projected climate changes of this ensemble to those projected by the EuroCORDEX multi-model ensemble over the UK. The two ensembles exhibit biases of comparable magnitudes during the historical period, but project increasingly divergent trends in future climate change. We show that for some indices, the ensembles sample the same future space, but in some cases do not even overlap - despite the wide spread in each ensemble. The effects of these diverging trends are illustrated in a case study of compound indices of extreme weather, such as the Fire Weather Index (derived from temperature, wind, humidity and precipitation variables), for which bias correction is known to be particularly problematic. Future GCM projections can be constrained by the fidelity of each ensemble member’s representation of the observed climate. We suggest how this approach might be extended to RCM ensembles, given the ability to match the spatial pattern seen in observations can be determined by the RCM whilst the magnitude of the climate change response is more related to the driving global model.

How to cite: Brierley, C., Barnes, C., Keeping, T., and Chandler, R.: Controls on projected climate extremes in two regional ensembles for the UK, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6042, 2022.

EGU22-6059 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Assessing the consistency of CORDEX multidomain projections in overlapping regions worldwide 

Javier Diez-Sierra, Maialen Iturbide, José Manuel Gutiérrez, Jesús Fernandez, Josipa Milovac, Antonio S. Cofiño, and Ezequiel Cimadevilla

CORDEX users are confronted with multiple sources of climate change information in regions where multiple domains overlap. Assessing the consistency of these sources (particularly the consistency of the climate signals) and understanding potential conflicts is a relevant problem with practical implications. For instance, this knowledge will guide on the best use of CORDEX to produce worldwide information merging the results provided by the different CORDEX domains. Two main approaches have been followed in the literature: 1) Mosaic of overlapped domains: The results from different domains are overlaid producing a mosaic where each region is covered by a single domain; this is the procedure typically followed in CORDEX-CORE (Teichmann et. al., 2021), using the domain which is best suited for each region. 2) Grand ensemble (Spinoni et al., 2020): Pooling together all available simulations across domains for each gridbox. This approach maximizes the information but leads to a heterogeneous ensemble with varying size and members across regions which may create spatial artifacts (e.g. border effects).

A preliminary analysis by Legasa et al. (2020) quantified the changes/uncertainty related to the choice of domain in the Mediterranean area, using the Europe and Africa CORDEX domains. They showed that the variability of the climate change signal from the grand ensemble was mostly determined by the models, and less so by the domain choice. Therefore, there is some evidence (at least, in the Mediterranean) that the grand ensemble approach could be appropriate to enlarge the ensembles for specific regions by pooling multi-domain simulations.

Here we extend this analysis by considering all regions where the worldwide CORDEX dataset domains overlap. The new subcontinental climatic regions used in the IPCC AR6 (Iturbide et al., 2020) are used to aggregate the results. We show that, in these areas, precipitation and near-surface air temperature biases and, especially, future climate change projections are systematically similar for simulations performed with the same GCM-RCM pair over different overlapping domains. This consistency provides higher confidence in the regional results (particularly when there are no physical reasons –e.g. different parameterizations– explaining the differences) and supports the use of a grand ensemble, pooling all available simulations in overlap areas covered by small individual CORDEX ensembles.

References

Iturbide, M., et al. (2020) An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets. Earth System Science Data, 12, 2959–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020

Legasa, M.N., et al. (2020) Assessing multidomain overlaps and grand ensemble generation in CORDEX regional projections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47,  https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086799 

Spinoni, J., et al. (2020). Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data. Journal of Climate, 33 (9), pp. 3635-3661, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1

Teichmann, C., et al. (2021). Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble. Climate Dynamics, 57 (5-6), pp. 1269-1292, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x

Acknowledgement

The authors would like to thank the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) for funding part of this research. J.F. and A.S.C acknowledge project CORDyS (PID2020-116595RB-I00). J.M.G. and M.I. acknowledge project ATLAS (PID2019-111481RB-I00) funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and A.S.C and E.C. acknowledge project IS-ENES3 funded by the EU H2020 (#824084).

How to cite: Diez-Sierra, J., Iturbide, M., Gutiérrez, J. M., Fernandez, J., Milovac, J., Cofiño, A. S., and Cimadevilla, E.: Assessing the consistency of CORDEX multidomain projections in overlapping regions worldwide, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6059, 2022.

EGU22-6135 | Presentations | CL5.3.3 | Highlight

Future changes in Simultaneous Megafires over the United States as projected by NA-CORDEX Simulations 

Melissa Bukovsky, Seth McGinnis, Lee Kessenich, Linda Mearns, Harry Podschwit, and Alison Cullen

Simultaneous very large wildland fires present a unique challenge to fire management and firefighting resource allocation.

Here we present potential changes in very large wildland fire simultaneity projected by an ensemble of regional climate model simulations produced for the North American Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) over multiple United States (U.S.) Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs), the main regions over which wildland firefighting resources are coordinated.  The NA-CORDEX simulations evaluated used the RCP8.5 future scenario, cover the years 1950-2100, and roughly span the range of climate sensitivity seen in the CMIP5 simulations.

To calculate simultaneity, we fit generalized linear models (GLMs) with a negative binomial response to observational data to predict megafire simultaneity based on multiple fire weather indices per GACC.  These indices include: KBDI (Keetch-Byram Drought Index), CFWI (Canadian Fire Weather Index), mFFWI, (modified Fosberg Fire Weather Index), ERC (Energy Release Component), BI (Burning Index), FM100, and FM1000 (100- and 1000-hour Fuel Moisture).  The resulting GLMs for the best index-based predictors were then applied to the NA-CORDEX simulations. 

Future projections of changes in the probability of different levels of simultaneity centered on multiple future timeslices will be presented, along with the uncertainty associated with the choice of simulation. 

How to cite: Bukovsky, M., McGinnis, S., Kessenich, L., Mearns, L., Podschwit, H., and Cullen, A.: Future changes in Simultaneous Megafires over the United States as projected by NA-CORDEX Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6135, 2022.

EGU22-6137 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Evaluation of WRF model PBL schemes in simulating temperature extremes over the Middle-East – North Africa (MENA) region 

Athanasios Ntoumos, Panos Hadjinicolaou, George Zittis, and Jos Lelieveld

A correct representation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is critical to achieve realistic simulations, especially regarding surface variables for regional climate simulations. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to the use of three widely used PBL schemes with emphasis on heat extremes. This study aims (i) to explore the differences among the WRF simulated air temperature and heat extremes resulting from the choice of PBL schemes, (ii) to investigate the physical causes of model biases via the analysis of different variables and, finally, (iii) to reveal the most suitable scheme for application in the Middle-East - North Africa (MENA) domain. The schemes under evaluation are the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ), Yonsei University (YSU), and the asymmetric convective model, version 2 (ACM2). We performed 11-year (2000-2010) simulations over the MENA region at 24km resolution. The simulations have been compared with the ERA5 reanalyses for several variables, including maximum and minimum 2-meter air temperature and indices of extremes. Results indicate that model biases strongly vary according to geographic area, with simulations showing good performance in some regions and substantial biases in others. Analysis of different variables like PBL height, moisture and heat fluxes show that differences among the schemes can be linked to differences in vertical mixing strength and entrainment of air from above the PBL.

How to cite: Ntoumos, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Zittis, G., and Lelieveld, J.: Evaluation of WRF model PBL schemes in simulating temperature extremes over the Middle-East – North Africa (MENA) region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6137, 2022.

EGU22-6306 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

The representation of the summer Southern African rainfall and its relationship with the Angolan Low and ENSO in the CORDEX models 

Sabina Abba-Omar, Francesca Raffaele, Erika Coppola, Daniela Jacob, Claas Teichmann, and Armelle Remedio

Models tend to show strong rainfall biases over Southern Africa, especially during the Summer (DJF) months. This study aims to explore and understand why these biases occur. The Angolan Low (AL) and ENSO are two important sources of Summer rainfall variability. Thus, the study explores whether the relationship between the AL, ENSO and rainfall is represented correctly in three different ensembles; the CORDEX-CORE ensemble (CCORE, 0.22 degrees resolution), the lower resolution (0.44 degrees) CORDEX-phase 1 ensemble (C44) and the driving CMIP5 models. From regression analysis and a self organizing map the results show that wetter (drier) than normal DJF seasons usually occur during a strong (weak) AL and a La Nina (El Nino) event. While the models show this to an extent, they also show some differences in these relationships compared to the observed. The study examines some key dynamical features to understand why these differences occur. These results can further the understanding and improvement of the simulated Southern African rainfall in models. 

How to cite: Abba-Omar, S., Raffaele, F., Coppola, E., Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., and Remedio, A.: The representation of the summer Southern African rainfall and its relationship with the Angolan Low and ENSO in the CORDEX models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6306, 2022.

EGU22-6318 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Impacts of climate change on European minimum flows under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C 

Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Fabio Di Sante, and Erika Coppola

Drought is a recurring hazard in Europe, affecting various sectors and causing a wide range of socioeconomic and environmental consequences. Global warming is very likely to significantly alter the water cycle across Europe, with serious implications for terrestrial hydrology. As a result, hydrological droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe in this region. In this framework, this preliminary study assesses the impact of climate change on extreme river droughts for the entire European region using a large ensemble based on 44 EURO-CORDEX simulations under the business-as-usual emision scenario (RCP8.5). For this, long-term (1976-2100) daily runoff from EURO-CORDEX simulations is used to feed a river routing model derived from the CETEMPS Hydrological Model (CHyM), obtaining thus the simulated daily discharge.

To investigate how climate change may affect the magnitude of minimum flows, a block minima method is here applied using 7-day simulated minimum yearly flows for each river point during nonfrost seasons. First, minimum flows for a reference period (1995-2014) are fitted to different extreme values statistical distributions to determine which is best for adjusting the yearly minimum discharge. Then, the minimum flows at various recurrence intervals obtained from the best distribution's adjustment are used to analyze changes at +1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. Therefore, the purpose of this preliminary work is twofold: (1), to elucidate what is the best probability distribution to fit the annual 7-day minimum discharge in Europe and (2) to project the minimum river flow to analyze the impact of climate change on extreme river drought.

The findings of this study will provide valuable information to plan suitable adaptation and strategies to climate change from a hydrological perspective.

Keywords: Hydrological drought, EURO-CORDEX, CHyM, minimum river flow

Acknowledgments:  first author is supported at present by OGS and CINECA under HPC-TRES program award number 2020-02

How to cite: García-Valdecasas Ojeda, M., Di Sante, F., and Coppola, E.: Impacts of climate change on European minimum flows under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6318, 2022.

In this study, we analyze the projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation and temperature over subtropical Chile, based on simulations of 3 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (RegCM4-7, REMO2015, and ETA) from South-America CORDEX-CORE, each one driven by three different CMIP5 GCMs. The RCM’s performance for the present climate is evaluated against the CR2MET (~5km) dataset.

The changes for the end (2070-2099) of the century for the RCP8.5 scenario are assessed with respect to the historical period (1976-2005). Extreme events are expressed in terms of 30-yrs return values, estimated from the GEV distribution fitted to seasonal extremes for extended austral winter and summer.

Accordingly, to GCMs projections, robust mean drying conditions are found among RCMs between 35ºS-40ºS in winter and 35ºS-45ºS in summer over the continental Chile and adjacent ocean. North of 30ºS REMO2015 and ETA show a statistically significant increase of mean winter precipitation over mountain regions. Another robust signal among the RCMs consists in an increase of extreme winter precipitation north of 35ºS over the mountain area. Increases in the maximum and minimum temperatures are significant over all domain for the 3 RCMs, but it is prominent to the north of 35°S (30°S) for REMO2015 and RegCM4-7 for winter (summer), especially over the mountain leeward, while ETA depicts the higher heating in the south of 30°S. The changes are mainly associated with a positive displacement of distribution (changes in location parameter) for temperatures and the amplification of interannual variability (positive changes in scale parameter) for precipitation. The physical processes responsible for these changes are discussed.

How to cite: Torrez Rodriguez, L. and Goubanova, K.: Assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature over Subtropical Chile based on South America CORDEX-CORE regional simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6330, 2022.

EGU22-6353 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

The potential of coralline algae as SST proxy and for climate model evaluation: A New Zealand case study 

Elena Kropač, Thomas Mölg, and Sebastian Teichert

General circulation models (GCMs) are currently the most important tools for obtaining projections about future climate. In addition, they provide data input for regional atmospheric models that translate global climate change to regional and local scales where humans and environments face the impacts. To ensure the accurateness of their simulations, GCMs need to be evaluated as thoroughly as possible against past climate records, where one focus is on the so-called "historical period" (1850–present). However, the evaluation task is difficult for the period before World War II and earlier due to a frequent lack of reliable observations. This problem is exacerbated for the Southern Hemisphere, which has been notoriously understudied in comparison to the climate of the Northern Hemisphere.

In New Zealand, variations in sea surface temperature (SST) are reflected on a variety of spatial and temporal scales and are statistically detectable through to temperature anomalies and glacier mass balance changes in the high mountains of the Southern Alps. The correct simulation of SST by GCMs is therefore crucial, especially when investigating the physical mechanisms that transform large-scale SST signals into local climate anomalies by using regional atmospheric modeling.

In the project “NZ-PROXY”, we utilize crustose coralline algae (CCA) – a rather recently discovered proxy archive – to extend the observational time series of SST in the New Zealand region back to ~1850. The SST reconstruction is then employed in GCM evaluation to reveal their skill in representing the large-scale climate of New Zealand. Finally, high-resolution sensitivity simulations are obtained from a regional atmospheric model to investigate the added value of the advanced GCM selection for regional climate modeling.

How to cite: Kropač, E., Mölg, T., and Teichert, S.: The potential of coralline algae as SST proxy and for climate model evaluation: A New Zealand case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6353, 2022.

EGU22-6672 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Diurnal cycles of one season with precipitation extremes in southeastern South America: comparison between models, resolution and observational datasets 

Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, Marta Llopart, Maria Laura Bettolli, Silvina Solman, Jesús Fernández, Alvaro Lavin-Gullon, Martín Feijoó, and Michelle Reboita

Over the southeast of South America, the extended warm season from October 2009 to March 2010 registered a great number of extreme precipitation events. In this study, we evaluated the ability of the regional climate models and observational datasets to simulate observed features of the precipitation mean diurnal cycle observed during this period. WRF (two versions – 3.8.1 and 3.9.1) and RegCM4.7.1 simulations, with a horizontal grid spacing of 20 km (which uses both convective and large scale precipitation schemes) and 4 km (the precipitation is solved only by the microphysics scheme - convective permitting - CP), were analysed. We also considered six observational gridded precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CMORPH, PERSIAN, TRMM, ERA5 and GSMAP). These data and simulations are compared against 51 local observations of the precipitation every 3 hours. For the 51 stations, the observed diurnal cycle presents a great variety of patterns (time of maximum, minimum, amplitude, and double peaks during the day), but it is noted a slight predominance of more intense peaks at 06, 09 and 12 local time, characterizing the morning precipitation in the region. Comparisons of the six observational gridded datasets with the in situ data indicate a small outperformance of CMORPH and ERA5 to reproduce the main features of the observed diurnal cycle. At 20 km resolution, the simulations are not able to capture the diversity of diurnal cycles shown by in situ data. CP simulations capture better the great variety of the precipitation diurnal cycles shown by in situ observations. Specifically, for WRF-CP there is a shift in the afternoon peak at 15 LT to the morning-early afternoon (from 6 to 12 LT), while in RegCM4-CP there is a decrease in the number of simulated diurnal cycles peaking at dawn and a displacement of some peaks from dawn (03 LT) to morning (09 LT). The increase in the diversity and shift to morning-early afternoon peaks (6 to 12 LT) are the features showing the greatest agreement between CP simulations and in situ observations of the diurnal cycle of precipitation.

How to cite: Porfírio da Rocha, R., Llopart, M., Bettolli, M. L., Solman, S., Fernández, J., Lavin-Gullon, A., Feijoó, M., and Reboita, M.: Diurnal cycles of one season with precipitation extremes in southeastern South America: comparison between models, resolution and observational datasets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6672, 2022.

The rapid growth of the offshore wind energy sector emphasizes the need for realistic projections of the lifetime energy yield of existing and planned offshore windfarms. Analyses of CMIP5 data show that, even though near-future wind speed changes over Europe and the North Sea are uncertain across models, these changes should be taken into account by wind industries due to the potentially large impact on the energy. Thanks to advances in model design and the increase in computing resources over the past decades, regional climate models (RCMs) can be used for multi-decadal simulations and that at a spatial resolution of a couple of kilometers or less. These high-resolution simulations not only allow for an improved representation of weather systems, but also allow to represent the interactions between windfarms and the atmosphere through a wind farm parametrization. In this way, RCMs can be employed for a detailed wind resource assessment for the coming decades that takes into account the wakes and energy losses induced by upwind arrays and clusters.

In our wind resource assessment, we use the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, extended with the Fitch wind farm parametrization. An evaluation of a 10-year, ERA5-driven simulation at 2.8km resolution against in-situ anemometers, lidar measurements and satellite-borne ASCAT measurements that has been performed for the North Sea will be discussed. For the year 2019, the spatially-variable bias in the mean wind speed was found to be generally within +- 0.4 m/s and the overlap in the wind speed distributions generally larger than 92%. Next, array- and cluster-scale wakes, modelled at horizontal resolutions of 2.8km and 1km were analysed and compared for a present and near-future windfarm layout over the southern North Sea, providing valuable information on how regional changes to the wind farm layout will impact the farm-specific energy yields due to additional upwind wake generation under different atmospheric conditions. This research frames within the FREEWIND project of KU Leuven (freewind-project.eu), which aims to contribute to the scientific research of offshore wind energy and plans to provide wind farm planning and forecasting tools on multiple time scales over the coming years.

How to cite: Borgers, R., Meyers, J., and Van Lipzig, N.: Offshore windfarm modelling over the North Sea with COSMO-CLM: model evaluation and application at kilometer-scale resolution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7685, 2022.

A new limited area model able to perform at a broad resolution range spanning from hydrostatic to convection permitting resolution  was needed to serve the big RegCM community when exploring the new frontiers of the regional climate modelling science . For this purpose the new RegCM5 non-hydrostatic core has been implemented. The new core  solves the dynamical equations by using a Weighted Average Flux (WAF) advection scheme with implicit vertical sound waves propagation, discretized on a horizontal Arakawa C-grid with terrain following hybrid height coordinate and Euler time integration, using split time-steps for both advection and vertical sound waves. No explicit diffusion is included except for a divergence damping. The model physical packages are adapted from the RegCM4. RegCM5 has been fully tested on all the CORDEX-CORE domain and in several convection permitting domains already used with the previous model version. The model integration time is on average four time faster compared to the previous version given that a larger time step is allowed for the integration. The RegCM5 results have been compared with the previous CORDEX-CORE simulations to assess the model ability in reproducing the regional climate in all the world regions and improvements in model statistics have been founds in several domains.  

How to cite: Coppola, E. and the RegCM team: The fifth generation regional climate modeling system RegCM5: Description and model validation over all CORDEX domains at hydrostatic and conveciton-permitting resolutions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8168, 2022.

EGU22-8210 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Response of the surface climate to different groundwater options using the WRF model 

Daniela C.A. Lima, Rita M. Cardoso, and Pedro M.M. Soares

An analysis of the sensitivity of different surface model options in the WRF model was performed. The main goal is to investigate the transition from wet to dry regimes through the analysis of the soil moisture–temperature, and soil moisture–precipitation interactions; and explore the response of the surface climate to different model options. Four simulations with the WRF model were carried out with different land surface model schemes for the 2004-2006 period, driven by ERA5 reanalysis. The WRF model was used for the simulations over the European domain with a horizontal resolution of 0.11 degrees and 50 vertical levels, which follows the CORDEX guidelines. These simulations rely on the same physical parameterisations with different surface model options. For the first experiment, the Noah land surface model was used. For the remaining simulations, the Noah-MP (multi-physics) land surface model was used with different runoff and groundwater options: (1) original surface and subsurface runoff (free drainage), (2) TOPMODEL with groundwater and (3) Miguez-Macho & Fan groundwater scheme.

An extensive evaluation of all simulations against observations was performed, which is an important step to determine the quality of the simulations. In this way, precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures from all simulations were compared against observations. The new version of the Europe‐wide E‐OBS temperature and precipitation data set was used to compare with the output of the simulations performed. This dataset has a regular grid with 0.1o spatial resolution. The evaluation of temperature and precipitation showed that the 1st and 4th setup have the best agreement against observations. Additionally, for each WRF experiment, the land energy balance and the land water balance were computed. These results showed some differences between simulations, in particular for the land water balance. Additional analysis are being carried out to determine the impact of different groundwater options of LSMs in surface climate.

 

Acknowledgements. The authors wish to acknowledge the LEADING (PTDC/CTA-MET/28914/2017) project funded by FCT. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – Instituto Dom Luiz.

How to cite: Lima, D. C. A., Cardoso, R. M., and Soares, P. M. M.: Response of the surface climate to different groundwater options using the WRF model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8210, 2022.

EGU22-8351 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Demonstrating the air-sea coupling performance of a Regional Earth System Model: Indian summer monsoon a case study 

Pankaj Kumar, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Dmitry V. Sein

An effort is made to implement a Regional Earth System Model (RESM) over the CORDEX-SA domain to demonstrate its skill in simulating the Indian summer monsoon characteristics. RESM was simulated on climate mode, 1980-2014, and showed good resemblance to observation in simulating mean precipitation, its variability (intraseasonal to interannual), extremes, and associated processes. RESM offers noticeable added value over its standalone atmospheric component (REMO), coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and regional climate models of CORDEX-SA. The added value is found to vary spatially. The most remarkable improvement is noticed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), South-Central India, and Indo-Gangetic belt, where most standalone RCMs and coupled GCMs show limitations. The better representation of low-pressure systems both over land and ocean, sea surface temperature, Indian Ocean Dipole, and its underlying mechanism leads to improve mean precipitation. 

 

Keywords: RESM, CORDEX-SA, Indian summer monsoon, LPS, air-sea coupling

 

Acknowledgement: This work is jointly supported by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India, grant number DST/INT/RUS/RSF/P-33/G, and the Russian Science Foundation (Project No.: 19-47-02015).

How to cite: Kumar, P., Mishra, A. K., and Sein, D. V.: Demonstrating the air-sea coupling performance of a Regional Earth System Model: Indian summer monsoon a case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8351, 2022.

EGU22-9604 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Evaluation of temperature extremes over central Europe and their links to atmospheric circulation in CORDEX RCMs 

Jan Stryhal, Eva Plavcová, and Ondřej Lhotka

Automated classifications of atmospheric circulation are routinely used to link synoptic-scale circulation with temperature variability. Though powerful in general, classifications have considerable limitations regarding their skill to capture synoptic links to temperature extremes.

We evaluate and optimize several parameters of the popular method of self-organizing maps, in order to make the method better suited for studying central European temperature extremes. Furthermore, two methods of discretizing Sammon projections of atmospheric circulation have been developed to complement the image obtained by SOMs, and all methods have been used to analyse ERA5 SLP fields in relation to winter extremes.

Here, we plan to apply the new optimized classifications to daily winter and summer SLP fields from the outputs of evaluation and historical runs by CORDEX RCMs to study the skill of the methods to identify RCM biases in simulated circulation and their links to biases in temperature extremes. Furthermore, we plan to utilize various indices of low-frequency large-scale circulation to assess to what extent the eventual biases propagate from the driving (reanalysis, GCM) data.

How to cite: Stryhal, J., Plavcová, E., and Lhotka, O.: Evaluation of temperature extremes over central Europe and their links to atmospheric circulation in CORDEX RCMs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9604, 2022.

EGU22-10104 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Prospective Changes in Climatology of the CORDEX Domain of Australasia: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach Using RegCM4.6 

M. Tufan Turp, Nazan An, Kamil Collu, and M. Levent Kurnaz

Although there are increasingly various studies within the frame of CORDEX initiative, most of these studies mainly focus on the domains of Africa, Europe, and the Mediterranean. Therefore, this study presents the regional climate projections for the CORDEX-Australasia domain using RegCM4.6. Projected changes in merely mean temperature and precipitation climatology during the periods of 2011-2040 (near-term), 2041-2070 (mid-term), and 2071-2099 (long-term) with reference to the period of 1971-2000 have been examined for the CORDEX-Australasia domain via regional climate model. Regional climate model runs were employed by using the best parametrizations suggested in the evaluation part of the study. The outputs of two global circulation models (i.e., HadGEM2-ES of the Met Office Hadley Centre, MPI-ESM-MR of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) were dynamically downscaled to 50 km under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this respect, seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation climatology of the CORDEX-Australasia domain were analyzed in a higher resolution. The results of the analysis show that there will be increasingly higher temperatures in Australasia towards the end of the century. It is concluded that the mean temperature increase expectation of approximately 1.5-3 ℃ may be around 5 ℃ at the end of the century. On the other hand, the change in precipitation varies greatly depending on the period and sub-region. Average ±20% change in precipitation may occur as 50% or more increases or 30% or more decreases in some places.

How to cite: Turp, M. T., An, N., Collu, K., and Kurnaz, M. L.: Prospective Changes in Climatology of the CORDEX Domain of Australasia: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach Using RegCM4.6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10104, 2022.

The Lake Victoria Basin is home to largest freshwater lake (Lake Victoria; LV) in Africa and second largest in the world. Each year hundreds of fisherman are lost on LV during intense night-time thunderstorms. LV is an essential component of the local economy while at the same time being one of the most hazardous lakes in the world. Despite this, until recently, understanding of the processes contributing to heavy rainfall events was very limited. In this study we present a 10-year (2005-2015) convection permitting (3km grid-spacing) simulation (CPS) of the Lake Victoria Basin using the RegCM version 4.7.0. A lake model is utilized in order to couple the lake regions with RegCM, which has been shown to be of great importance for simulating a realistic lake surface temperature (LST) and precipitation over LV. Mesoscale circulations associated with the diurnal cycle over LV are an important driver of intense night-time thunderstorms. An analysis of the diurnal rainfall cycle over LV shows that the CPS well represents the timing of nocturnal rainfall over the lake which is associated with a strong landbreeze, however the daytime peak in rainfall over the land surrounding the lake is too early relative to observed data. The temporal spectrum of lake rainfall shows a dominance in diurnal frequencies while intraseasonal timescales show only a very weak signal. Extreme nocturnal rainfall events exceeding 2STD of the lake rainfall timeseries are composited and separated for further analysis. These events show a clear migration from the previous daytime peak in rainfall over land, westward onto the lake during the night. To understand these diurnal precipitation events we explore mechanisms which may play a role in the events such as, the strength of the lake-landbreeze circulation, and convective instability.

How to cite: Glazer, R. and Coppola, E.: Understanding extreme diurnal convection over Lake Victoria from a convection permitting regional climate simulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10158, 2022.

EGU22-10600 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Evaluation of bias correction methods for current and future RCM projections in hydrological regional applications 

Tassia Brighenti, Philip Gassman, William Gutowski, and Jan Thompson

RCMs produced at ~0.5° (available in the NA-CORDEX database esgf-node.ipsl.upmc.fr/search/cordex-ipsl/) address issues related to coarse resolution of GCMs (produced at 2° to 4°). Nevertheless, due to systematic and random model errors, bias correction is needed for regional study applications. However, an acceptable threshold for magnitude of bias correction that will not affect future RCM projection behavior is unknown. The goal of this study is to evaluate the implications of a bias correction technique (distribution mapping) for four GCM-RCM combinations for simulating regional precipitation and, subsequently, streamflow, surface runoff, and water yield when integrated into Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) applications for the Des Moines River basin (31,893 km²) in Iowa-Minnesota, U.S. The climate projections tested in this study are an ensemble of 2 GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M) and 2 RCMs (WRF and RegCM4) for historical (1981-2005) and future (2030-2050) projections in the NA-CORDEX CMIP5 archive. The PRISM dataset was used for bias correction of GCM-RCM historical precipitation and for SWAT baseline simulations. We found bias correction improves historical total annual volumes for precipitation, seasonality, spatial distribution and mean error for all GCM-RCM combinations. However, improvement of correlation coefficient occurred only for the RegCM4 simulations. Monthly precipitation was overestimated for all raw models from January to April, and WRF overestimated monthly precipitation from January to August. The bias correction method improved monthly average precipitation for all four GCM-RCM combinations. The ability to detect occurrence of precipitation events was slightly better for the raw models, especially for the GCM-WRF combinations. Simulated historical streamflow was compared across 26 monitoring stations: Historical GCM-RCM outputs were unable to replicate PRISM KGE statistical results (KGE>0.5). However, the Pbias streamflow results matched the PRISM simulation for all bias-corrected models and for the raw GFDL-RegCM4 combination. For future scenarios there was no change in the annual trend, except for raw WRF models that estimated an increase of about 35% in annual precipitation. Seasonal variability remained the same, indicating wetter summers and drier winters. However, most models predicted an increase in monthly precipitation from January to March, and a reduction in June and July (except for raw WRF models). The impact on hydrological simulations based on future projected conditions was observed for surface runoff and water yield. Both variables were characterized by monthly volume overestimation; the raw WRF models predicted up to three times greater volume compared to the historical run. RegCM4 projected increased surface runoff and water yield for winter and spring by two times, and a slight volume reduction in summer and autumn. Meanwhile, the bias-corrected models showed changes in prediction signals: In some cases, raw models projected an increase in surface runoff and water yield but the bias-corrected models projected a reduction of these variables. These findings underscore the need for more extended research on bias correction and transposition between historical and future data.

How to cite: Brighenti, T., Gassman, P., Gutowski, W., and Thompson, J.: Evaluation of bias correction methods for current and future RCM projections in hydrological regional applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10600, 2022.

EGU22-10724 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Ensembles of Euro-CORDEX RCMs for assessment of specialized climate indices in Ukraine 

Svitlana Krakovska, Tetiana Shpytal, Anastasiia Chyhareva, Larysa Pysarenko, Iryna Trofimova, and Lidiia Kryshtop

Regular update of climate projections is a crucial task in all countries since such data should be a basis for development further adaptation measures on all levels from national down to local. And the more detailed data is available the more reliable and focused measures to combat climate change could be developed. At the moment data of EuroCORDEX initiative with 0.1o spacing is the most suitable, detailed and freely available dataset for Ukraine. We used bias-adjusted daily and monthly air temperature and precipitation datasets projected by 34 regional climate models (RCMs) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for 3 future periods: near-term 2021-2040, mid-term 2041-2060 and far-term 2081-2100. Further bias-adjustment by the delta-method has been applied for the RCMs ensemble means when differences in temperatures (or ratio in case of estimations for precipitation) in future periods were added to (or for precipitation - multiplied by) values in the base period 1991-2010, obtained from the E-OBS v20.0e data. The Delta method applied provides more reliable results and allows to effectively exclude systematic biases in RCMs.

At the same time, in response to practical needs not only main climate parameters such as air temperature and precipitation should be projected under different scenarios but specialized climate indices that are different for different sectors. We’ll present as an example a set of indices relevant to forestry which is among the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Ukraine. They are as follows: daily and annual temperature ranges, continentality, the coldest month temperature, heat and moisture supply during warm season with t>0o, and types of climates by Worobjov index. All climate indices for the base period 1991-2010 and past WMO period 1961-1990 are estimated from the E-OBS data. To visualize the above indicators Ukraine atlas has been developed in QGIS application which represents 2 past and 3 future periods for 2 scenarios.

How to cite: Krakovska, S., Shpytal, T., Chyhareva, A., Pysarenko, L., Trofimova, I., and Kryshtop, L.: Ensembles of Euro-CORDEX RCMs for assessment of specialized climate indices in Ukraine, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10724, 2022.

EGU22-11040 | Presentations | CL5.3.3 | Highlight

CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Urbanization - URBan environments and Regional Climate Change (URB-RCC) 

Tomas Halenka and Gaby Langendijk

Cities play fundamental role on climate at local to regional scales through modification of heat and moisture fluxes, as well as affecting local atmospheric chemistry and composition, alongside air-pollution dispersion. Vice versa, regional climate change impacts urban areas and is expected to increasingly affect cities and their citizens in the upcoming decades, because the share of the population living in urban areas is growing, and is projected to reach about 70% of the world population up to 2050. This is especially critical in connection to extreme events, for instance heat waves with extremely high temperatures exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, in particular during night-time, with consequences for human health.

In 2013, the CORDEX community identified cities to be one of the prime scientific challenges. Therefore, we proposed this topic to become an activity at CORDEX platform, within the framework of so called flagship pilot studies, which was accepted and the FPS URB-RCC activity has been started in May 2021.

The main goal of this FPS is to understand the effect of urban areas on the regional climate, as well as the impact of regional climate change on cities, with the help of coordinated experiments with urbanized RCMs. While the urban climate with all the complex processes has been studied for decades, there is a significant gap to incorporate this knowledge into RCMs. This FPS aims to bridge this gap, leading the way to include urban parameterization schemes as a standard component in RCM simulations, especially at  high resolutions.

From the perspective of recent regional climate models development with increasing resolution down to the city scale, proper parameterization of urban processes is important to understand local/regional climate change. The inclusion of the individual urban processes affecting energy balance and transport (i.e. heat, humidity, momentum fluxes) via special urban land-use parameterization of local processes becomes vital to simulate the urban effects properly. This will enable improved assessment of climate change impacts in the cities and inform adaptation and/or mitigation options, as well as prepare for climate related risks (e.g. heat waves, smog conditions etc.). More detailed discussion of the RCMs simulations available with urban parameterization and methods already in use will be presented.

How to cite: Halenka, T. and Langendijk, G.: CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Urbanization - URBan environments and Regional Climate Change (URB-RCC), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11040, 2022.

Reliable climate projections foremost for temperature and precipitation are essential for countries adaptation and mitigation planning. The newest ensembles of climate models, used to construct projections of future climate, is CMIP6. This study will use CMIP6 regional climate model daily data from the portal of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The main goal of this study is to estimate changes in climate indices for temperature (T) and precipitation (P) in Central Europe. Three models are selected (MIROC6, MRI-ESM2-0 and TaiESM1(AS-RCEC)) for three scenarios (SSP 245, SSP 370 and SSP 585). We use a baseline period of 1991-2010 and two future periods: 2031-50 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). Three temperature indices were considered: (i) number of frost days with minimal air T under 0 °C, (ii) number of ice days with maximal T below 0 °C and (iii) tropical nights (TN) index when minimal T exceed 20°C. Five precipitation indices were chosen to estimate climate change: (i) yearly mean precipitation, (ii) Simple daily intensity, (iii) number of extreme days with more than 20 mm/day, (vi) Consecutive dry and (v) wet days.

The study of the three model's ensemble concludes, a decrease by more than 30 % and 50 % in the freezing days (frost and ice) respectively for near and far future by SSP 585, the number of tropical nights is multiplied by 6 to 9 times foremost for South Germany and Austria. Regarding precipitation parameter, the annual maximum precipitation will increase by more than 100 mm/year with a slightly added rainfall amount (0.4 mm/day) for of SD index. Extreme rainy days rise by about 30 and 50 days by SSP 585 scenario respectively during the near and far future. The analysis of the wet/dry indices showed a slight increase foremost for the dry period length and the number of CDD period. A natural progression of this work is to analyze all the CMIP6 model's ensemble to set up more robust results.

How to cite: Dhib, S. and Halenka, T.: Projected Climate Change Indices over Central Europe Using Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6 Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11053, 2022.

EGU22-11495 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

European summer precipitation changes and the role of the large-scale circulation 

Hylke de Vries, Geert Lenderink, Karin van der Wiel, and Erik van Meijgaard

Regional climate projections indicate that the future changes in European summer mean precipitation may be substantial, with significant drying in southern Europe and possible weak increases in at higher latitudes. Model uncertainties and natural variability are however large. Here we quantify the role of future large-scale circulation changes on future precipitation change in a 16-member single-model regional climate-model ensemble for the RCP8.5 emission scenario (Global climate model EC-Earth2.3, dynamically downscaled using the regional climate model RACMO2 for the period 1950-2100). Circulation analogues are used to distinguish three contributions. The first is the precipitation change occurring without circulation change. The second contribution measures the effects of changes in the large-scale mean circulation. It has a different spatial pattern and is closely related to high-pressure development west of Ireland. For a large area east of Ireland (including parts of western Europe), it is the major contributor to the overall drying signal, locally explaining more than 90% of the ensemble-mean change. The high-pressure region west of Ireland also appears in CMIP6 ensemble-mean projections, although it is weaker than in the EC-Earth2.3/RACMO2 ensemble because of model spread in the exact location of the high-pressure region. The third contribution records the net effect on precipitation of changes in the circulation variability. This term has the smallest net contribution, but a relatively large uncertainty. The analogues can be used effectively to partition the ensemble-mean change but describe only up to 40% of the ensemble-spread. This demonstrates that natural variability in precipitation drivers other than the large-scale circulation (e.g., SST, soil-moisture preconditioning) will generally strongly influence regional summer precipitation trends derived from single climate realisations and thereby reemphasises the need for using large ensembles or other methods where signal to noise ratios are high (e.g., pseudo-global warming experiments).

How to cite: de Vries, H., Lenderink, G., van der Wiel, K., and van Meijgaard, E.: European summer precipitation changes and the role of the large-scale circulation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11495, 2022.

EGU22-11606 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

RCM-Emulators for precipitation at daily scale 

Antoine Doury, Samuel Somot, and Sébastien Gadat

Delivering reliable regional or local climate change projections for the next decades that are both at fine scale and taking into account all sources of uncertainty is currently an unsolvable problem with dynamical models such as RCMs or CPRCMs. Indeed, it requires building large ensembles to capture the various sources of uncertainty (scenario choice, model choice, natural variability). However these fine scale models are very expensive to run, and the different CORDEX exercises highlight the complexity of completing large SCENARIO-GCM-MEMBER-RCM matrices. 

 

In order to tackle this issue we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method called RCM-Emulator. It aims at combining the physical basis of the dynamical downscaling approach (i.e. RCM) with the low computational cost of the empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) using recent machine learning techniques. The idea is to use existing RCM simulations to learn the transfer function from low resolution field to high resolution surface variables such as temperature or precipitation. The emulator developed here is based on a neural network architecture called UNet and is calibrated following a perfect model framework. The training dataset is a EURO-CORDEX simulation performed with the CNRM-ALADIN RCM at 12km, covering historical and scenario simulations. After presenting the concept of RCM-Emulator and the methodology used to learn the downscaling function, we will evaluate its ability to reproduce the high resolution daily precipitation over Europe in perfect conditions and finally apply it to GCM simulation outputs in order to study its transferability. If successful, this novel tool combined with specifically designed RCM simulations will allow to fill up the 4D-matrices over all CORDEX domains.

How to cite: Doury, A., Somot, S., and Gadat, S.: RCM-Emulators for precipitation at daily scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11606, 2022.

EGU22-11698 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

From global to regional: Advancing the simulation of the Moroccan climate with a variable resolution GCM 

saloua balhane, frédérique cheruy, fatima driouech, abderrahmane idelkadi, étienne vignon, abdelghani chehbouni, and philippe drobinski

Morocco -as part of both the Mediterranean and North African region- has long been recognized as a major climate change hotspot where precipitation is projected to decline significantly. This can threaten the stability of many climate-sensitive sectors including water and agriculture. Effective management of such sectors requires a better understanding and assessment of climate variability and change in the regional context.

Downscaling approaches are needed to bridge the gap between the coarse resolution of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the scales suitable for finer climate assessments and impact or adaptation studies. This is classically done through limited area Regional Climate Models (RCM) driven by large-scale fields from the global models. While these models can improve the representation of many processes including mesoscale circulation and orographic effects, they also suffer from weaknesses that can significantly alter the reliability of climate change projections. The potential inconsistencies between the physical parameterizations of the RCMs and its forcing GCMs, the incomplete description of some climate forcings, as well as some methodological choices may impact the results in a non-negligible way. It is also difficult to distinguish between the impact of a better description of small scales and the impact of systematic biases inherited from the forcing models.

In this work, we examine the feasibility of using a variable resolution, global, general-circulation model LMDZ (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Z stands for zoom) in a coupled configuration (atmospheric/land-surface component of the IPSL climate model) using telescopic zooming and enhanced resolution (approx. 35 km) over North Africa to better reveal regional aspects of the distribution of the precipitation over Morocco and their response to global warming. The simulations produced with this configuration are compared to a hierarchy of simulations, including intermediate resolution global simulations (50km) and low-resolution AMIP simulations produced in the framework of the CMIP6 exercise. The simulations are evaluated against various sets of observations (stations and satellite-based datasets). Our results show clear improvements related to the increased resolution and the ability of the model to capture the main large-scale circulation patterns of interest for Morocco. In addition, the model clearly illustrates the impact of weather regimes on precipitation and temperature mean and extreme events. The next step will consist in using this configuration to produce and analyze downscaled climate projections, to better understand the mechanisms of regional climate change and quantify the uncertainties.

How to cite: balhane, S., cheruy, F., driouech, F., idelkadi, A., vignon, É., chehbouni, A., and drobinski, P.: From global to regional: Advancing the simulation of the Moroccan climate with a variable resolution GCM, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11698, 2022.

EGU22-12064 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Revisiting heatwaves in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble in comparison with a coupled regional climate system model with 3D subsurface hydrodynamics 

Klaus Goergen, Carina Furusho-Percot, Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube, Niklas Wagner, Carl Hartick, and Stefan Kollet

​​Explicitly considering groundwater dynamics in regional climate models (RCMs) can significantly influence the simulation of states and fluxes at the land surface, leading to an altered land-atmosphere coupling. The modified flux partitioning is relevant for the simulation of heatwaves, and their future evolution under climate change. This study compares the representation of heatwaves at climate time scales in an ensemble of RCMs without, and one coupled RCM with explicit groundwater- and subsurface hydrodynamics. The Terrestrial Systems Modelling Platform (TSMP, https://www.terrsysmp.org) as a regional climate system model, couples the atmospheric model COSMO, the Community Land Model, and the hydrologic model ParFlow (https://www.parflow.org) through the OASIS3-MCT coupler. TSMP simulates a closed terrestrial water cycle from the groundwater to the top of the atmosphere with a 3D variably saturated subsurface flow representation and a free-surface overland flow boundary condition. TSMP is run in a EURO-CORDEX compliant setup at 12km resolution over the European EUR-11 domain. First, we compare heatwave area, frequency, duration, and intensity from 13 years of ERA-Interim driven evaluation runs. TSMP is analysed alongside a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, gridded E-OBS observations, and the ERA5-Land reanalysis. Especially for heatwave intensities and the number of heatwave days, TSMP shows a clear tendency towards lower mean absolute deviations from the comparison data. A comparison to GLEAM-based evapotranspiration indicates low deviations in evapotranspiration anomalies. This is linked to an increased evaporative fraction that is affected by a redistribution of soil moisture and groundwater flow in a continuum approach and interactions with the land surface. In a further analysis, 30 years of selected EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble members from historical simulations, driven by CMIP5 global climate models (GCM), and TSMP driven by the MPI-ESM-LR GCM are compared. Consistent with the evaluation run analysis and with large spatial and temporal heterogeneity, the soil moisture and groundwater treatment in TSMP attenuates hot events and heatwave extremes, in comparison to the RCM ensemble. The duration of heat events in TSMP decreases as the mean number of hot day events (duration > 3 days) and long hot events (duration > 6 days) decreases by a factor of 1.5-2.3; the mean number of short hot events (duration < 3 days) is higher in TSMP. Also, the frequency of heatwaves (heat events exceeding 6 consecutive days) with an amplitude (intensity) larger than 4K compared to the 90th temperature percentile, is decreased by a factor of 2 and more, while, the frequency of heatwaves with low amplitudes is increased. The results suggest that groundwater dynamics, due to their impact on the number of hot day events, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, has to be taken into account when analysing heatwave statistics from RCM ensembles.

How to cite: Goergen, K., Furusho-Percot, C., Poshyvailo-Strube, L., Wagner, N., Hartick, C., and Kollet, S.: Revisiting heatwaves in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble in comparison with a coupled regional climate system model with 3D subsurface hydrodynamics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12064, 2022.

EGU22-12405 | Presentations | CL5.3.3 | Highlight

A new ensemble-based SPI and SPEI index to depict droughts projections for the Iberia Peninsula with the EURO-CORDEX 

João A.M. Careto, Pedro M.M. Soares, Rita M. Cardoso, Ana Russo, and Daniela C. A. Lima

Droughts are one of the major natural hazards, affecting the flora and fauna, but also human activities and health. Such events impact water management and agriculture, potentially causing increased mortality and economical losses. Drought analysis is a complex and challenging task, as it is quite difficult to accurately determine the spatial and temporal dimensions of drought events. Synthetic tools, like drought indices mostly based on the climate information, are often used to tackle this problem. Both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were widely used to characterize droughts. These indices usually consider a monthly aggregation of either precipitation or a water balance (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), adjusting the data to a theoretical Probability Density Function (PDF), in order to get a standardized time-series. However, the input of such a small amount of data into the PDFs could potentially lead to uncertainties and it is not the best for some types of applications which respond on a smaller timescale. Nowadays, observational data are more readily available at a daily time-step. Thus, a new daily index is here proposed, relying on an empirical PDF built from the data. This new daily-SPI and daily-SPEI indices were applied to the World Meteorological Organization - Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the European domain (EURO-CORDEX). In total 13 Regional Climate models were considered for the 1971-2100 period, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 from 2006 onwards. The versatility of these new indices allows a building of an ensemble PDF, featuring all model data. A timescale of accumulation with 7-, 15-, 90-, 180 and 360- days were considered. The EURO-CORDEX is then used to assess drought projections throughout the 21st century in terms of intensity, frequency, and mean duration of events for moderate, severe, and extreme droughts. It is projected an increase of intensity along the century, more pronounced for the RCP 8.5. While for the RCP 2.6, the intensity peak occurs for the mid century (2041-2070). As for the frequency of drought events, the timescale of 15 days reveals a noticeable increase, being constantly above other timescales, particularly for the daily SPEI. Moreover, the mean duration of events reveals a higher increase at the longer accumulation periods, while small to no changes occur for the 7 and 15 days.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the financial support of FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL and EEA-Financial Mechanism 2014-2021 and the Portuguese Environment Agency through Pre-defined Project-2 National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI (PDP-2). J. Careto is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) with the Doctoral Grant SFRH/BD/139227/2018 financed by national funds from the MCTES, within the Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon. 

How to cite: Careto, J. A. M., Soares, P. M. M., Cardoso, R. M., Russo, A., and Lima, D. C. A.: A new ensemble-based SPI and SPEI index to depict droughts projections for the Iberia Peninsula with the EURO-CORDEX, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12405, 2022.

EGU22-13541 | Presentations | CL5.3.3

Benchmarking Downscaled Precipitation to Optimize Stakeholder Resilience to Extremesusing the CORDEX-Australasia Ensemble 

Rachael Isphording, Lisa Alexander, Margot Bador, Joshua-Brent Amoils, and Donna Green

Regional governments and stakeholders increasingly request downscaled climate model simulations to better inform growing climate risks and vulnerabilities. Presently, there is no standardized framework or metrics identified to evaluate downscaled rainfall data. Previous studies typically evaluate the ensemble mean and do not holistically incorporate precipitation characteristics relevant to stakeholder needs, including extremes. I introduce a standardized benchmarking framework to evaluate downscaled rainfall across spatiotemporal scales relevant to various stakeholder applications. Benchmarking seeks to understand how well a model should perform by defining performance expectations a priori and includes thorough evaluation of model set-up (including e.g. the convection scheme and other model parameterizations). A hierarchy of model performance expectations is presented to guide users in selecting a subset of "fit for purpose" simulations to optimise rainfall projections across spatiotemporal scales and societal needs.

How to cite: Isphording, R., Alexander, L., Bador, M., Amoils, J.-B., and Green, D.: Benchmarking Downscaled Precipitation to Optimize Stakeholder Resilience to Extremesusing the CORDEX-Australasia Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13541, 2022.

EGU22-599 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Influence of the ocean initial state on the weather anomalies simulation for 2019/2020 winter in the INMCM5 seasonal hindcasts 

Maria Tarasevich, Vasilisa Vorobyeva, Alexey Chernenkov, Mikhail Gasanov, Danila Bardashov, and Evgeny Volodin

During the 2019/2020 winter season the extremely high air temperature and precipitation were recorded over northern Eurasia, eastern Asia and eastern North America. Over the UK this winter was stormy and one of the wettest for the entire observational period. Moreover, it was the only winter without stable snow cover in the central East European Plain. The reason of such exceptional weather is the domination of a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) positive phase during the whole season.
Since the NAO effect on winter weather is strong, prediction of its phase is a challenge for all national meteorological services. Several of them predicted the positive sign of North Atlantic Oscillation phase for 2019/2020 winter season, but underestimated the magnitude and duration. Forecasts obtained from INM RAS climate model (INMCM5) demonstrated consistent results for the considered season.
In this work we use the INMCM5 to study the sources of the predictability of both the extremely positive NAO phase and the weather fields anomalies in the 2019/2020 winter season. In particular we consider whether the INM RAS climate model simulates the positive Indian Ocean dipole — positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase teleconnection.
The research was carried out during the student educational program "Computational Technologies, Higher Order Data Analysis and Modelling" at the Sirius University and partially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project 20‑17‑00190).

How to cite: Tarasevich, M., Vorobyeva, V., Chernenkov, A., Gasanov, M., Bardashov, D., and Volodin, E.: Influence of the ocean initial state on the weather anomalies simulation for 2019/2020 winter in the INMCM5 seasonal hindcasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-599, 2022.

EGU22-1507 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Predictable Patterns of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Northern Hemisphere and Their Predictability Sources in the SEAS5 

Hongdou Fan, Lin Wang, Yang Zhang, Youmin Tang, Wansuo Duan, and Lei Wang

Slow-varying atmospheric boundaries are the main sources of seasonal climate predictions, and their footprints on climate variables may be captured as predictable patterns. Based on 36-yr hindcasts from the fifth-generation seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (SEAS5), the most predictable patterns of the wintertime 2-m air temperature (T2m) in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere are extracted via the maximum signal-to-noise (MSN) empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and their associated predictability sources are identified. The main findings of this study are as following:

  • The MSN EOF1 captures the warming trend that amplifies over the Arctic but misses the associated warm Arctic–cold continent pattern. The MSN EOF2 delineates a wavelike T2m pattern over the Pacific–North America region, which is rooted in the tropical forcing of the eastern Pacific-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The MSN EOF3 shows a wavelike T2m pattern over the Pacific–North America region, which has an approximately 90° phase difference from that associated with MSN EOF2, and a loading center over midlatitude Eurasia. Its sources of predictability include the central Pacific-type ENSO and Eurasian snow cover. The MSN EOF4 reflects T2m variability surrounding the Tibetan Plateau, which is plausibly linked to the remote forcing of the Arctic sea ice.
  • The information on the leading predictable patterns and their sources of predictability is further used to develop a calibration scheme to improve the prediction skill of T2m. The calibrated prediction skill in terms of the anomaly correlation coefficient improves significantly over midlatitude Eurasia in a leave-one-out cross-validation, implying a possible way to improve the wintertime T2m prediction in the SEAS5.

How to cite: Fan, H., Wang, L., Zhang, Y., Tang, Y., Duan, W., and Wang, L.: Predictable Patterns of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Northern Hemisphere and Their Predictability Sources in the SEAS5, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1507, 2022.

EGU22-1793 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperatures 

Matthew Patterson, Antje Weisheimer, Daniel Befort, and Christopher O'Reilly

Since the 1980s, external forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and declining aerosols has had a large effect on European summer temperatures. The forcing therefore provides an important source of predictive skill, even for timescales as short as seasonal forecasts. However, the relative importance of forcing for seasonal forecasts has thus far not been quantified, particularly for skill on regional scales. In this study, we investigate forcing-induced skill by comparing the skill of the operational multi-model ensemble of seasonal predictions from the Copernicus climate change service (C3S) archive to that of an uninitialized ensemble of CMIP6 projections for European summers for the period 1993-2016.

We show that for some regions, such as northern Europe, the forced trend provides the primary source of 2m temperature skill in current seasonal forecast models at 2-4 month lead-times. Over some parts of northern Europe, summer correlation skill is actually higher in uninitialized predictions and in runs with long lead-times than at short lead-times suggesting that there may be problems with the initialization. Conversely, 2m temperature in the Mediterranean region is generally well predicted by seasonal forecast models out to 4-6 months due to a combination of dynamical skill and a strong forced trend.

We argue that the strong warming trends mean that even uninitialized predictions contain useful information for seasonal forecasts of European summer temperatures. However, the ability of current models to capture summer circulation patterns requires further investigation as it is still unclear whether the models are deficient in this regard or whether the summer is inherently unpredictable.

How to cite: Patterson, M., Weisheimer, A., Befort, D., and O'Reilly, C.: The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperatures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1793, 2022.

EGU22-2912 | Presentations | CL5.3.4 | Highlight | Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture

Decadal climate predictions, impacts of Arctic sea ice loss, and the signal-to-noise paradox 

Doug Smith

Many sectors of society are vulnerable to decadal changes in climate, which impact food security, freshwater availability, spread of pests and diseases, heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, wildfires, energy supply and demand, transport, migration, and conflict. On decadal timescales climate is influenced by both internal variability and changes in radiative forcing. Climate predictions that are initialised with observations are needed to account for all of these factors and will be reviewed in this talk.

Understanding the drivers of decadal climate is crucial for gaining confidence in forecasts. One hypothesis, namely that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerly winds, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project was developed to address this issue and results from coordinated multi-model experiments will be presented that support the above hypothesis and suggest that this effect is underestimated by current models. However, even when accounting for this underestimation, the response to Arctic sea ice is small compared to yearly variations in mid-latitude winters.

For predictions to be useful they must be skilful and reliable. There is mounting evidence that models may underestimate the strength of predictable signals, especially for atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. This error has been termed the “signal-to-noise paradox” since it leads to the unexpected situation that models can predict the real world better than one of their own ensemble members. Skilful predictions can be achieved using a very large ensemble, but the model output cannot be taken at face value and needs calibrating to obtain skilful and reliable forecasts. Given the potential impacts of changes in atmospheric circulation, understanding why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models, and assessing the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections of the coming decades, are high priority areas for future research.

How to cite: Smith, D.: Decadal climate predictions, impacts of Arctic sea ice loss, and the signal-to-noise paradox, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2912, 2022.

EGU22-3948 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Seasonal Predictability of wintertime North Atlantic cyclonic activity through the NAO and the eddy-driven jet stream 

Alvise Aranyossy, Sebastian Brune, Lara Hellmich, Mikhail Dobrynin, Daniel Krieger, and Johanna Baehr

We investigate the potential for enhancing the seasonal prediction skill of mid-latitude cyclonic activity, represented by eddy kinetic energy (EKE) at 250 hPa over the North Atlantic and Europe, in hindcast simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) against the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis. Our analysis focuses on wintertime months (December-March) from 1982 to 2019, with a 30-member seasonal hindcast ensemble initialized every November 1st. Based on the initial confirmation that in both ERA5 reanalysis and MPI-ESM hindcasts, the eddy-driven jet stream and the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) play a significant role in wintertime's spatial and temporal distribution of mid-latitude cyclonic activity, we perform ensemble subsampling.

Specifically, we sample each winter so that a northern position of the jet stream is consistent with a positive phase of the NAO and represents poleward enhanced EKE activity. In contrast, a southern position of the jet stream is consistent with a negative phase of the NAO and represents equatorward enhanced EKE activity. Preliminary analysis of the predictive skill of MPI-ESM hindcasts with respect to ERA5 shows that such subsampling with respect to a consistent representation of the jet stream position and the NAO phase leads to improvements over the skill from the 30-member ensemble mean, with significant correlations concentrated over areas of major frequency of storm tracks. Our results put into practical use that an enhanced representation of the large-scale climate variability plays a crucial role in the long-term prediction of high-frequency events such as mid-latitude cyclones.

How to cite: Aranyossy, A., Brune, S., Hellmich, L., Dobrynin, M., Krieger, D., and Baehr, J.: Seasonal Predictability of wintertime North Atlantic cyclonic activity through the NAO and the eddy-driven jet stream, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3948, 2022.

EGU22-7508 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

On the forced response and decadal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation 

Bo Christiansen, Shuting Yang, and Dominic Matte

We investigate the forced response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)  in large ensembles of climate models including simulations with historical  forcings and initialized decadal hindcasts.  The forced NAO in the  CMIP6 historical ensemble correlates significantly with observations after 1970. However, the forced NAO shows an apparent non-stationarity with significant correlations to observations only in the period after 1970 and in the period before 1890. We demonstrate that such apparent non-stationarity can be due to chance even when models and observations are independent. We find only weak evidence that initialization improves the skill of the NAO on decadal time-scales. Neither of the historical ensembles including only natural forcings, well-mixed greenhouse-gases, or anthropogenic aerosols show any skillful NAO. Our results question the possibility of useful decadal predictions of the NAO.

How to cite: Christiansen, B., Yang, S., and Matte, D.: On the forced response and decadal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7508, 2022.

EGU22-7631 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

The seasonal teleconnections of the Indian Ocean Dipole to the North Atlantic region 

Tim Hempel, Antje Weisheimer, and Tim Palmer

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major source of seasonal climate variability in the
Indian Ocean. This dipole has major impacts on the Indian Ocean region and through
teleconnections can influence the seasonal climate of remote regions as well. In late 2019 a
major IOD event contributed to a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) of that
winter. Thus, a good understanding of the mechanism that transports information from
the Indian Ocean to the North Atlantic is desirable. In this contribution we investigate
the special teleconnection of the winter of 2019 and analyse the transport mechanism.


In model experiments with the OpenIFS from ECMWF we show that the NAO in the
winter 2019 is influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole. We use hindcast ensemble model
experiments to analyse the behaviour of the IOD and its impact on the NAO. These
seasonal hindcast experiments are started from the 01. November 2019 and run for the
DJF season 2019/2020. Since the OpenIFS is uncoupled we change the Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) boundary conditions in regions of importance to the NAO (like the
ENSO region, the North Atlantic, and also the Indian Ocean). With these perturbations
we identify the relative importance of individual ocean regions to the state of the NAO
in the winter of 2019.


We contrast the experiments with the perturbed SST conditions to a control forecast and
ERA5 reanalysis. We find that removing the IOD has a significant impact on the NAO of
the 2019/2020 DJF season, pushing the NAO to a more negative state. Additionally the
contrast between control forecast and model experiments shows Rossby Waves emanating
from the Indian Ocean over the North Pacific and the Arabian Peninsular.


Experiments with perturbations in other ocean regions show that some signals, like ENSO,
can suppress the impact of the IOD on the NAO, but in their absence the positive IOD
event of 2019 did likely contribute to the strong positive NAO of 2019/2020.

How to cite: Hempel, T., Weisheimer, A., and Palmer, T.: The seasonal teleconnections of the Indian Ocean Dipole to the North Atlantic region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7631, 2022.

EGU22-8491 | Presentations | CL5.3.4 | Highlight

Decadal prediction for Ireland and Irish Fisheries 

Catherine O’Beirne, Louise Vaughan, Vimal Koul, and André Düsterhus

Fishery sector is of vast importance to the Irish economy. In 2019 it has generated €577 million and employed 16 thousand. The ability to predict changes in the future stock will support adaptation and fish stock management. In decadal climate prediction, initialized predictions have demonstrated improved prediction skill for the North Atlantic. The different stages of fish development are dependent on oceanic variables like temperature and variability and so decadal prediction skill for those variables would allow to make statements on potential changes in fish stock. 

Our aim is to improve decadal prediction skill in the Northeast Atlantic. For this we apply ensemble subsampling, a process that selects those ensemble members for creating a subsampled ensemble mean, which perform best under evaluation by physically-based statistical predictors. Climate modes, like Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), interact with our region of interest and therefore we will use those to inform us about our subsampling decisions. Applying this methodology on seasonal scales has demonstrated improved prediction skill for other climate modes.

For this contribution we will investigate the application of subsampling on decadal scales for the Northeastern Atlantic on variables like temperature and salinity for different depth levels. The analysis will show how decadal prediction skill will change when wider oceanographic basin information, like SPG and AMV, are considered in the decadal predictions. We will discuss potential implications for a selection of species for the Irish fisheries sector, and with it the possibility for improving the current fish stock management systems in Ireland.

How to cite: O’Beirne, C., Vaughan, L., Koul, V., and Düsterhus, A.: Decadal prediction for Ireland and Irish Fisheries, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8491, 2022.

EGU22-9477 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Temporal merging of decadal predictions and climate projections to obtain seamless information: challenges and potential solutions 

Daniel J. Befort, Lukas Brunner, Leonard F. Borchert, Christopher H. O'Reilly, and Antje Weisheimer

There is an increasing demand from society and policy makers for reliable, robust and actionable climate information for the upcoming 40 years. However, providing such seamless information poses a challenge to the scientific community. Traditionally, the scientific community developed targeted forecasts for specific time scales, e.g. short-term, seasonal or decadal predictions. These model integrations have thus a limited forecast period and do not provide seamless information on time scales up to 40 years.

This work discusses two alternative approaches to combine information from initialized decadal predictions (providing information up to ten years) with uninitialized climate projections (available until 2100 and beyond). 

The first is  a novel framework, which is designed to implicitly make use of the (added) values from initialization by constraining uninitialized climate projections using decadal predictions. This approach is applied to near-surface temperatures over the North Atlantic Subpolar gyre region from CMIP5 models. Results suggest that such a constraining approach is able to provide more skillful, seamless climate information beyond decadal time-scales compared to using unconstrained climate projections. 

The second approach is based on the simple temporal concatenation of decadal predictions and climate projections. It is shown that this can introduce inconsistencies, which may impact the usability for potential end users. Two different methods to overcome these issues are discussed: the application of a simple calibration method and a weighting scheme based on model performance. Results for the calibration method are in general promising, whereas the impact of the model weighting scheme is smaller. The latter is mainly associated with the small size of the decadal prediction ensemble, which hinders the usual application of the weighting scheme as done in previous studies based on much larger ensembles.

How to cite: Befort, D. J., Brunner, L., Borchert, L. F., O'Reilly, C. H., and Weisheimer, A.: Temporal merging of decadal predictions and climate projections to obtain seamless information: challenges and potential solutions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9477, 2022.

EGU22-9713 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Predictability of European Winter 2020/21 

Sarah Ineson, Julia Lockwood, Nicky Stringer, Hazel Thornton, and Adam Scaife

Winter (DJF) 2020/21 in the North Atlantic/European sector was characterised by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, this was not well forecast by the leading seasonal prediction systems. We focus on forecasts from GloSea5, which was the Met Office operational seasonal prediction system at the time. Forecasts initialised in November 2020, at the 1-month lead time, indicated that a positive NAO was likely, although a few ensemble members did agree with the eventual outcome. Analysis suggests that the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that occurred in early January 2021 and an active MJO in late January/early February 2021 probably contributed to the observed negative NAO. In particular, GloSea5 indicated a rather low probability for SSW activity, which may well have been exacerbated by the forecast of a stronger than observed La Niña by this system.

How to cite: Ineson, S., Lockwood, J., Stringer, N., Thornton, H., and Scaife, A.: Predictability of European Winter 2020/21, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9713, 2022.

EGU22-9892 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter and summer within CMIP6 

Andrea Marcheggiani, Jon Robson, Paul-Arthur Monerie, Thomas Bracegirdle, and Doug Smith

Recently it has been shown that initialised climate predictions capture the decadal variability of the winter NAO with high skill. However, the signal from models is often hidden among their large internal variability, which results in a low signal-to-noise ratio. In this study, we quantify the skill of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet’s location and intensity, both in summer and winter. We focus on multi-model decadal predictions made for CMIP6. Overall, we find that models feature a higher skill (as featured by the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient) in predicting the intensity of the jet than its location. For years 2-9, the high winter NAO skill is largely associated with skilful prediction of the jet speed. However, skill in summer is considerably worse than in winter, with models consistently failing to capture the observed southward shift of the Jet between the 1970s and 2010s. Finally, we also show that the skill for the winter NAO is sensitive to the period over which it is computed, and skill drops considerably when evaluating up to the present day, as models fail to capture the observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet over the period 2005-2020, as well as the positive trend in the winter NAO.

How to cite: Marcheggiani, A., Robson, J., Monerie, P.-A., Bracegirdle, T., and Smith, D.: Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter and summer within CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9892, 2022.

EGU22-10027 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

The role of decadal prediction in the detection of heat waves in the Iberian Peninsula 

Juan José Rosa-Cánovas, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Emilio Romero-Jiménez, Patricio Yeste, Feliciano Solano-Farías, Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, and María Jesús Esteban-Parra

Heat waves are among the natural hazards with the greatest social, environmental and economic impact in Mediterranean Europe. In this scenario of changing climate towards warmer conditions, heat waves are expected to increase their length and intensity during the next decades. Thus, reliable near-term forecasting for heat waves plays a fundamental role in the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in these regions.

This study evaluates the prediction skill of heat waves in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) with a collection of global decadal experiments dynamically downscaled by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) has been used to set the initial and boundary conditions in the downscaling simulations. The DPLE encompasses a set of decadal experiments initialised every year from 1954 to 2015 carried out for an ensemble of 40 members with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at NCAR. In this assessment, the decadal experiments starting in the years from 1987 to 1999 have been regionalised for 3 members of the ensemble. The downscaling simulations have been conducted in one-way mode and considering two nested domains: the EUROCORDEX domain, with resolution around 50 km, and another covering the IP at 10 km resolution, approximately.

Two indices have been used to quantify the intensity and duration of the heat waves: the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) and the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI). The maximum daily temperature is used to compute both indices. While HWMId is described as the maximum magnitude of the heat waves in a year, WSDI represents the extension of warm spells in a general sense. The results obtained from the regionalised experiments have been evaluated against observational data.

Keywords: decadal prediction, Weather Research and Forecasting Model, heat waves, Iberian Peninsula, dynamical downscaling, Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble

Acknowledgments: J. J. Rosa-Cánovas acknowledges the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities for the predoctoral fellowship (grant code: PRE2018-083921). This research has been carried out in the framework of the projects CGL2017-89836-R, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness with additional FEDER funds, B-RNM-336-UGR18, funded by FEDER / Junta de Andalucía - Consejería de Economía y Conocimiento, and P20_00035, funded by FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades.

How to cite: Rosa-Cánovas, J. J., García-Valdecasas Ojeda, M., Romero-Jiménez, E., Yeste, P., Solano-Farías, F., Gámiz-Fortis, S. R., Castro-Díez, Y., and Esteban-Parra, M. J.: The role of decadal prediction in the detection of heat waves in the Iberian Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10027, 2022.

EGU22-12731 | Presentations | CL5.3.4 | Highlight

Towards an "eddy-resolving" climate prediction system 

Daniela Matei, Katja Lohmann, Oliver Gutjahr, and Johann Jungclaus

We have developed, implemented and preliminary evaluated the performance of the first “eddy-resolving” decadal prediction prototype system based on the MPI-ESM-ER model configuration with the aim to investigate potential improvements due to resolving oceanic eddies in interannual to decadal climate variability and in the prediction skill of the North Atlantic circulation and climate of the regions impacted by it (Europe, Nordic Seas, and Arctic). The MPI-ESM-ER setup is employing an eddy-resolving ocean component with a global resolution of 10 km and an atmospheric component with a resolution of 100 km (T127). The eddy-resolving simulations were compared with similar MPI-ESM-HR experiments conducted within the CMIP6 DCPP-A framework employing an eddy-permitting ocean configuration of 0.4° (~40km). Since both the radiative forcing (CMIP6), the assimilation procedure and ensemble generation are exactly identical, has allowed us to isolate the effect of resolving oceanic eddies (and topographic features) in MPI-ESM-ER prediction system. The variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic over the last decades is well reproduced by the initialized predictions, in contrast to the uninitialized historical simulations. Both prediction systems are able to reproduce the mid-1990s abrupt strong warming event, with a more realistic amplitude of the warming in the MPI-ESM-ER hindcasts. Moreover, there is a clear reduction in the systematic model bias by using an eddy-resolving ocean component in MPI-ESM-ER. All MPI-ESM-HR hindcasts are approximately 1°C too warm, but the MPI-ESM-ER hindcast ensemble is very close to the observations. Reducing the SST bias in the North Atlantic will have implications for other quantities than SST, such as storm tracks or blocking events over Europe. We have also investigated the impact of an “eddy-permitting” and an “eddy resolving” ocean configuration on the predictability of the 2015 record Subpolar North Atlantic “Cold Blob”. Predicting such extreme coupled climate phenomena over the North Atlantic-European region has proved to be very challenging for state-of-art prediction systems. However, we could demonstrate that our prediction system is able to reproduce the observed anomalies, but in years where it is absolutely necessary to forecast the atmosphere conditions too, it will require a large ensemble of hindcasts (of the order of 10 or more): two (out of five) ensemble members in MPI-ESM-HR and six (out of ten) ensemble members in MPI-ESM-ER configuration simulate an eastern subpolar North Atlantic “Cold Blob"" in 2015. One of the MPI-ESM-ER ensemble members even reproduces the full observed strength of the ""Cold Blob"", underlining the potential of high-resolution climate predictions. We could also demonstrate that using an eddy-resolving ocean (0.1°) considerably improves the model systematic bias over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Based on these promising results, we plan to investigate the predictability of other recent oceanic extreme climate phenomena.

How to cite: Matei, D., Lohmann, K., Gutjahr, O., and Jungclaus, J.: Towards an "eddy-resolving" climate prediction system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12731, 2022.

EGU22-13156 | Presentations | CL5.3.4 | Highlight

Multi-model forecast quality assessment of CMIP6 decadal predictions 

Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Louis-Philippe Caron, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Nick J. Dunstone, An-Chi Ho, Klaus Pankatz, Andreas Paxian, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes

Decadal climate predictions are a new source of climate information for inter-annual to decadal time scales, which is of increasing interest for users. Forecast quality assessment is essential to identify windows of opportunity (e.g., variables, regions, and lead times) with skill that can be used to develop a climate service and inform users in several sectors. Also, it can help to monitor improvements in current forecast systems. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project Component A (DCPP-A) of the Coupled Model Intercom-parison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) now provides the most comprehensive set of retrospective decadal predictions from multiple forecast systems. The increasing availability of these simulations leads to the question of how to best post-process the raw output from the forecast systems so that the most useful and reliable information is provided to users.

This work evaluates the quality of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for spatial fields of near-surface air temperature and precipitation, and time series of the Atlantic multi-decadal variability index (AMV) and global near-surface air temperature anomalies (GSAT) generated from all the available decadal predictions contributing to CMIP6/DCPP-A (169 members from 13 forecast systems). The predictions generally show high skill in predicting temperature and the AMV and GSAT time series, while the skill is more limited for precipitation. Also, different approaches for building a multi-model forecast are compared (pooling all ensemble members versus combining the averages from individual forecast systems), finding small differences. Besides, the multi-model ensemble is compared to the individual forecast systems. The best system usually provides the highest skill. However, the multi-model ensemble is a reasonable choice for not having to select the best system for each particular variable, forecast period and region. Furthermore, the decadal predictions are compared to the uninitialized historical climate simulations (195 members from the same forecast systems as the decadal prediction members) to estimate the impact of initialization. An added value is found for temperature over several ocean and land regions, and for the AMV and GSAT time series, while it is more reduced for precipitation. Moreover, the full DCPP-A ensemble is compared to a sub-ensemble of predictions that could be provided in near real-time for a potential operational product generation. The comparison shows a benefit of using a large ensemble over several regions, especially for temperature. Finally, the implications of these results in a climate services context are discussed.

 

How to cite: Delgado-Torres, C., Donat, M. G., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Caron, L.-P., Athanasiadis, P. J., Bretonnière, P.-A., Dunstone, N. J., Ho, A.-C., Pankatz, K., Paxian, A., Pérez-Zanón, N., Samsó Cabré, M., Solaraju-Murali, B., Soret, A., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: Multi-model forecast quality assessment of CMIP6 decadal predictions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13156, 2022.

EGU22-13216 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Physical constraints on actual decadal prediction skill of internal sea surface temperature variability 

Vimal Koul, Leonard Borchert, Sebastian Brune, Matthew Menary, Corinna Schrum, and Johanna Baehr

Decadal prediction of internal (unforced) sea surface temperature (SST) variability relies on proper initialisation of the ocean as well as on the ability of the models to capture the observed internal modes of SST variability. Yet the specific origins of internal decadal SST prediction skill remain unidentified. In this work, we combine physical constraints to allow an a-priori identification of regions that show high actual decadal prediction skill of unforced SST signals. 

Specifically, we examine the hypothesis that skillful actual decadal SST prediction requires a combination of: reproduction of large scale persistence of SST in observations by the prediction model; initialization of the ocean state close to observations; and a strong imprint of ocean over atmosphere dynamics on the SST signal. In a MPI-ESM-LR-based decadal prediction system we find that all three criteria are met in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the western Indian Ocean, and the northeast Pacific Ocean. The examined prediction system shows significant skill against HadISST observations in those three regions as well, indicating how the hypothesized physical constraints may identify regions where a decadal prediction system shows actual prediction skill.

Our work shows that internal decadal variations of ocean variables can be predicted beyond the North Atlantic region, highlighting the western Indian Ocean and the northeast Pacific Ocean as potential new hot spots of decadal prediction.

How to cite: Koul, V., Borchert, L., Brune, S., Menary, M., Schrum, C., and Baehr, J.: Physical constraints on actual decadal prediction skill of internal sea surface temperature variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13216, 2022.

EGU22-13219 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems 

Ronan McAdam, Simona Masina, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Silvio Gualdi, Retish Senan, and Michael Mayer

Seasonal forecasts of marine variables are not used nor validated to the same level that atmospheric variables are, despite their great potential for the planning of maritime activities. Ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies, for example, typically persist for several months, making this variable a vital component of seasonal predictability in both the ocean and the atmosphere. However, the ability of seasonal forecasting systems to predict OHC remains largely untested. Here, we present a global assessment of OHC predictability in two state-of-the-art and fully-coupled seasonal forecasting systems. Overall, we find that dynamical systems make skilful seasonal predictions of OHC in the upper 300m across a range of forecast start times, seasons and dynamical environments. Predictions of OHC are typically as skilful as predictions of sea surface temperature (SST), providing further proof that accurate representation of subsurface heat contributes to accurate surface predictions. We also compare dynamical systems to a simple anomaly persistence model to identify where dynamical systems provide added value over cheaper forecasts; this largely occurs in the equatorial regions and the tropics, and to a greater extent in the latter part of the forecast period. Regions where system performance is inadequate include the sub-polar regions and areas dominated by sharp fronts, which should be the focus of future improvements of climate forecasting systems.

Lastly, we describe efforts to encourage the use of marine variables in operational seasonal forecasting, as part of the European Union Horizon 2020 EuroSea project. We present encouraging results on the predictability of marine heat waves using OHC, which marks the first step of our strategy to provide forecasts of stakeholder-defined indicators.

How to cite: McAdam, R., Masina, S., Balmaseda, M. A., Gualdi, S., Senan, R., and Mayer, M.: Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13219, 2022.

EGU22-13395 | Presentations | CL5.3.4

Impact of volcanic eruptions in CMIP6 decadal prediction systems: a multi-model analysis 

Roberto Bilbao, Panos Athanasiadis, Leon Hermanson, Juliette Mignot, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Didier Swingedouw, Xian Wu, and Pablo Ortega

In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred: Mount Agung (1963), El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal-to-decadal timescales and providing a high prediction potential. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of such volcanic eruptions on decadal prediction, which consists in performing initialised sets of predictions just before the three historical volcanic eruptions, but in which the volcanic aerosol forcing is excluded. The impact of the volcanic eruptions is therefore determined by comparing these new forecasts with those included in the corresponding retrospective prediction experiment DCPP-A, which include historical volcanic aerosol forcing. Here we present the results from six CMIP6 decadal prediction systems (CanESM5, CESM1, EC-Earth3, HadGEM3, IPSL-CM6A and CMCC-CM2-SR5). The global mean temperature cooling is comparable among models and consistent with previous studies. The surface temperature response pattern in the first years is similar across all the models and for the individual volcanic eruptions. At later forecast times (years 6-9), differences among the models and eruptions emerge. Preliminary results show that the volcanic eruptions impact the atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, as shown in previous studies, although some differences across models emerge, specifically on the ocean overturning and gyre circulation changes.

How to cite: Bilbao, R., Athanasiadis, P., Hermanson, L., Mignot, J., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Swingedouw, D., Wu, X., and Ortega, P.: Impact of volcanic eruptions in CMIP6 decadal prediction systems: a multi-model analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13395, 2022.

EGU22-866 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Rainfall extremes in the Nordic-Baltic region 

Jonas Olsson, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, Erika Médus, Svetlana Aniskeviča, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Eirik Førland, Viktorija Mačiulytė, Antti Mäkelä, Piia Post, Søren Liedke Thorndahl, and Lennart Wern

Rainfall extremes, not least short-duration (sub-daily) extremes, are associated with a range of societal hazards, notably pluvial flooding but in addition e.g. debris flow and erosion-driven nutrient transport. Fundamental for all analysis, modelling and risk assessment related to rainfall extremes is the access to and analysis of observations. In this study, rainfall observations from meteorological stations in the Nordic-Baltic region were collected, quality controlled and consistently analyzed in terms of records, return levels and trends as well as geographical, climatic and seasonal dependencies. In terms of daily extremes, long-term analyses (since 1901) were performed at 138 stations and short-term analyses (since 1969) at 724 stations. In terms of sub-daily extremes, fewer stations and shorter records are available, and long-term analyses (since 1981) were performed at 47 stations and short-term analyses (since 2000) at 370 stations. The results reflect the heterogeneous rainfall climate in the region, with longitudinal and latitudinal gradients in the return levels as well as their time of occurrence for different durations (and return periods). Trend analyses show a majority of positive trends, both at daily and sub-daily scales, with geographical differences. Observations and data from the study are provided open access and we hope that this will be useful e.g. for regional harmonization of rainfall statistics used in infrastructural design and for climate model evaluation.

How to cite: Olsson, J., Verpe Dyrrdal, A., Médus, E., Aniskeviča, S., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Førland, E., Mačiulytė, V., Mäkelä, A., Post, P., Liedke Thorndahl, S., and Wern, L.: Rainfall extremes in the Nordic-Baltic region, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-866, 2022.

EGU22-1316 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Using measurements uncertainties in climate applications 

Fabio Madonna, Fabrizio Marra, and Marco Rosoldi
Measurement uncertainties are a dispersion indicator which must be quantified when the estimation of a geophysical quantity is provided. Measurement uncertainty is defined as a "parameter, associated with the result of a measurement, that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand’' (GUM, 2018). Therefore, measurement uncertainties can discriminate more and less certain data with confidence. Observations form the basis for any evidence of climate change. However, observations themselves possess uncertainties originating from many sources including measurement error and errors imposed by the algorithms generating derived products (Matthews et al., 2013). Nevertheless, traditional approach to climate data records, either obtained from observations or from data assimilation systems, offers datasets where uncertainty information is generic, misleading or missing. 
In particular, measurement uncertainties have been often neglected adducing their self-compensation when these are propagated from raw data to geophysical products or derived products. This is also because the metadata available and the collected observations do not allow their appropriate estimation. Moreover, other sources of uncertainty (e.g. due to interpolation, representativeness, residual of homogenization algorithms, etc.) must be quantified to provide a  proper uncertainty estimation in the derived products.
 
More recently an increasing number of datasets are provided with measurement uncertainties; few satellite retrievals are generated with a quite detailed uncertainty quantification; atmospheric renalysis is provided with an uncertainty estimation, although systematic model errors not taken into account and uncertainties are assumed uncorrelated; finally, the most recent homogenized datasets are provided with an estimation of uncertainties also for the historical data.
 
The uncertainties in climate observations pose a set of methodological and practical challenges for both the analysis of long-term trends and the comparison among datasets or with theoretical thresholds. 
 
In this work examples will be provided showing the importance of quantifying uncertainties of climate data records. The aim is also to encourage the community to develop other use cases for showing the impact of using uncertainties in climate applications. 

How to cite: Madonna, F., Marra, F., and Rosoldi, M.: Using measurements uncertainties in climate applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1316, 2022.

EGU22-1345 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Long-term trends of precipitation in Europe: a comparison across multiple datasets 

Radan Huth and Václav Vít

Different types of climate datasets (station, gridded, reanalyses) and even individual datasets have been shown to differ in how they capture statistical properties of climate variables. Here we compare trends in precipitation totals in Europe between station data (taken from the ECA&D database), gridded data (E-OBS and CRU TS), and reanalyses (20CR, JRA-55, and NCEP/NCAR) for period 1961-2011, both annually and for individual seasons. Theil-Sen non-parametric trend estimator is used for the quantification of the trend magnitude; Mann-Kendall test is used to evaluate the significance of trends.

On the annual basis, station data indicate precipitation increases in northern Europe and decreases in southern and southeastern Europe. Whereas trends in the gridded datasets roughly agree with station data, although tend to overestimate them, reanalyses provide much more negative trends with a different geographical distribution. There is a tendency for reanalyses to overestimate precipitation in the beginning of the period at some places, whereas they underestimate precipitation near the end of the period elsewhere. Particularly notable is an excessive, and likely unrealistic, drying trend in central, southwestern, and southeastern Europe in NCEP/NCAR in most seasons. Reanalyses thus do not appear to be suitable data sources for estimation of precipitation trends.  

Reasons for the disagreement are identified by a detailed examination of local or regional time series. The reasons are varied and depend on the specific type of dataset: Station series may suffer from inhomogeneities; gridded data may be affected by different sets of stations entering the interpolation procedure at different times; while reanalyses may be affected by different kinds of data being assimilated into them in different periods.

How to cite: Huth, R. and Vít, V.: Long-term trends of precipitation in Europe: a comparison across multiple datasets, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1345, 2022.

EGU22-1442 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

The ROM SAF radio occultation climate data records and trend analyses 

Kent B. Lauritsen, Hans Gleisner, Johannes K. Nielsen, and Stig Syndergaard

Many studies have by now demonstrated the accuracy of GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) data, and their usefulness as a stable climate reference. Homogeneity of the data records are obtained by reprocessing of the data using uniform processing software throughout the length of the climate record. Version 1 of the ROM SAF Climate Data Record (CDR), based on Metop, CHAMP, GRACE, and COSMIC data, covers a continuous 15-year period from 2002 to 2016. The CDR is extended in time by an Interim CDR (ICDR) which is regularly updated nearly up to present time, and the combined time series is now long enough (20 years) to begin detection of climate trends. We here present results from recent climate applications of RO data: bending angle and temperature trends in the upper troposphere and stratosphere, including the first RO contribution to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. Furthermore, we outline ROM SAF plans for generating RO climate data records. This includes calculating uncertainty estimates and generating homogenized water vapour climate data records based on a one-dimensional variational retrieval using detrended background data.

The Radio Occultation Meteorology Satellite Application Facility (ROM SAF) is a decentralized operational processing facility under EUMETSAT. The main objective of the ROM SAF is to generate and deliver operational radio occultation products from GNSS RO instruments onboard Metop, Metop-SG, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich and other satellites for NWP and climate applications. The ROM SAF CDR and ICDR is publically available from: http://www.romsaf.org. Further information about the ROM SAF products and services are available at this website.

How to cite: Lauritsen, K. B., Gleisner, H., Nielsen, J. K., and Syndergaard, S.: The ROM SAF radio occultation climate data records and trend analyses, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1442, 2022.

EGU22-1720 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

250 years of daily weather: a reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in Switzerland since the late 18th century 

Noemi Imfeld, Lucas Pfister, Yuri Brugnara, and Stefan Brönnimann

Numerous historical sources report on hazardous past climate and weather events that had considerable impacts on society. Studying for example mechanisms of such events is however hampered by a lack of spatial weather information. Gridded high-resolution daily data sets mostly cover the past few decades. For Switzerland, Pfister et al. (2019) reconstructed daily fields of precipitation and temperature back to 1864, but the century before this year would be particularly relevant to study the transition from the Little Ice Age climate to the Anthropocene and to analyze the anomalous, volcanically-perturbed climate in the early 19th century and late 18th century. Here we present a daily high-resolution (1x1 km2) reconstruction of temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland for the years 1763 to 1960 using the analog resampling method (ARM). Together with the present-day meteorological fields, this forms a 250-year data set. The ARM samples temperature and precipitation fields for the historical period from the most similar days in a reference period. These most similar days are selected based on the smallest distance calculated between the observational data in the historical period and the reference period. As observational data, we use temperature, pressure, precipitation, and precipitation occurrence. The resampled fields are then post-processed by assimilating historical temperature measurements and adjusting precipitation fields using isotonic distributional regression. Despite the much scarcer data availability in the period before 1864, evaluation results are promising for the temperature reconstruction with correlation values of on average 0.9 and root mean square errors of on average 1.8°C. For precipitation, the evaluation results are less promising with correlation values of on average 0.7 and root mean square errors of on average 5 mm. Due to its high spatial variability and the small number of records in the historical period, precipitation is more difficult to reconstruct. With the here presented data set, it is now possible to study historical weather and climate events in their spatial extent, such as the warm summer in 1807, and bring it into context leveraging other historical sources. The data set can further be used to calculate impact-relevant indices, for agricultural, phenological, and hydrological modeling.

How to cite: Imfeld, N., Pfister, L., Brugnara, Y., and Brönnimann, S.: 250 years of daily weather: a reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in Switzerland since the late 18th century, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1720, 2022.

EGU22-2402 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Characteristics of hail in the Croatian coastal part of the Adriatic 

Lucija Blašković, Damjan Jelić, Barbara Malečić, Branimir Omazić, and Maja Telišman Prtenjak

Hail is an extreme phenomenon that can cause great material damage. Although the process of hail formation is known, there is still insufficient knowledge about this topic. For this reason, numerous researches on hail climatology around the world have been made in the last few years. In spite of the fact that Croatia is a small country, it has a relatively inhomogeneous climate. The cause of this inhomogeneity may be orography, proximity to the Adriatic Sea etc. Characteristics of hail vary in different climatic conditions, and this research will focus on characteristics of hail in the climactic conditions of costal part of the Adriatic. The results are based on hail data from 55 stations from the observation log for the period from 1973 to 2019, and ERA 5 data for instability indices. The results showed significant interannual and spatial variability, due to which it was necessary to make a division into 4 subdomains. Trend analysis showed negative trend in interannual number of hail events, and the loss of hail events was reflected on summer and autumn seasons. It was shown that on the entire coast, the highest hail activity is present in the colder part of the year, and reduced activity in the warmer part of the year. Daily patterns showed 3 daily highs – morning, noon and afternoon, and the duration was usually 5 minutes. Three stations were singled out as the ones with the most hail days a year: Senj, Drniš and Gračac. Finally, instability indices were studied (KI, CAPE, DLS and freezing level height), which could explain the atmospheric conditions in which hail occurs.

How to cite: Blašković, L., Jelić, D., Malečić, B., Omazić, B., and Telišman Prtenjak, M.: Characteristics of hail in the Croatian coastal part of the Adriatic, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2402, 2022.

EGU22-3202 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Enhanced Climate Data and Analyses for Africa 

Tufa Dinku

The use of climate data in Africa for research and applications has been limited mainly due to poor availability of and access to quality climate time series. Weather stations are sparse, and their number has been declining over the last 50 years or so. Access to existing climate data is a challenge mainly because of national data policies, low financial investment, lack of dissemination capacity and tools, and high access costs. The Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) approach led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University has been tackling this problem by working with National Meteorological Services (NMS) in Africa and in other developing countries. This initiative helps NMS to generate long time series of rainfall and temperature. This is accomplished by combining quality-controlled data from national observation networks with satellite estimates for rainfall and climate model reanalysis products for temperature.  This is done using the Climate Data Tool (CDT), which is an open-source software developed by IRI. CDT can be used for data organization, quality control, combining station data with satellite and reanalysis data, evaluating merged and inputs datasets, performing an array of analyses, and visualization.  In addition, ENACTS also enables users to perform climate analyses, including variability and extremes, through a user-friendly online mapping service (maproom). This approach has been implemented in about 20 countries in Africa, and a few countries in Asia and South America.

How to cite: Dinku, T.: Enhanced Climate Data and Analyses for Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3202, 2022.

EGU22-3432 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Long term (1930-2018) climate and snow cover trend in Val D’Ossola valley, Western Alps. 

Leonardo Stucchi, Daniele Bocchiola, and Claudia Dresti

Val d’Ossola is an alpine valley in the Western Alps, nesting some of the highest peaks of Italy (4609 m a.s.l.), and several snowfield and glaciers, providing freshwater in thaw season. Since the ’30s snow and ice melting were exploited largely for hydropower production, and climate stations were installed to monitor local climate and to help the assessment of production. Here, we exploited data from such stations, pursing statistical analysis of 2 dataset, i.e. i) Set1 with daily temperature T, precipitation P, and snow depth HS for 9 stations (1930-2018), and ii) Set2 with data of snow depth HS, and density ρS measured on a fortnight basis (1° February to 1° June) for 47 stations (2007-2021).

After preliminary data quality assessment, we pursued Mann Kendall (MK, bulk, and progressive) test and Linear Regression LR (with change point detection CP), to highlight in Set1 a positive/negative trend for temperature/snow depth.

The use of progressive MK and CP provided evidence of negative trends of HS (ca. -100 mm for annual peak), and snow cover duration DS (ca. -27 days per year) since the late ’80s. Spring/summer T is significantly correlated with retirement of a nearby Swiss glacier (Muttgletcher).

For Set2, with snow depth and density available, we found Snow Water Equivalent SWE = HS • ρs peaking nearby May 15th, more than one month later than the peak in snow depth HS (April 1st), displaying that decrease of HS in April is likely due to settling, rather than to mass loss by ablation. The seasonal peak of SWE is however delayed with altitude, namely by ca. 6 days later, every 100 m upward.

Our results match those from other studies in the Alpine area, and can be used as a benchmark for snow cover assessment under climate change, and study of seasonal water delivery in the Alps of Italy, and Europe

How to cite: Stucchi, L., Bocchiola, D., and Dresti, C.: Long term (1930-2018) climate and snow cover trend in Val D’Ossola valley, Western Alps., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3432, 2022.

EGU22-5379 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Towards homogenisation of Swiss manual snow series: Investigating the sensitivity of break point detection performances of ACMANT, CLIMATOL, and HOMER 

Moritz Buchmann, John Coll, Johannes Aschauer, Michael Begert, Stefan Brönnimann, Barbara Chimani, Gernot Resch, Wolfgang Schöner, and Christoph Marty

Measurements of snow depth can vary dramatically over small distances, and as with any other meteorological variable, snow depth time series are affected by inhomogeneities or break points. Such inhomogeneities can arise due to e.g.; changes of instrumentation, changes to station location and observer practices, or changes in the local environment such as urbanisation or plant growth.

In order to analyse and monitor variation in snow depth time series accurately, homogenised snow data series are required. In deriving such homogenised series, it is essential  to understand the characteristics and impacts of inhomogeneities. Having applied some pre-selection criteria to identify candidate series, time series homogenization for 184 Swiss snow depth series was performed using ACMANT, Climatol, and HOMER, three state-of-the-art break detection algorithms.  For the 91 year base period of 1931-2021, we investigated which method and set-up worked best for detecting breaks in this network of Swiss snow data series. The approach identified valid break points in 25% of the series, with HOMER identifying more valid breaks than either ACMANT or Climatol.  By evaluating the network using multiple methods, there is more confidence that the results can be applied to snow time series with insufficient metadata or no  immediately nearby reference  stations in order to include them in future homogenisation efforts.

How to cite: Buchmann, M., Coll, J., Aschauer, J., Begert, M., Brönnimann, S., Chimani, B., Resch, G., Schöner, W., and Marty, C.: Towards homogenisation of Swiss manual snow series: Investigating the sensitivity of break point detection performances of ACMANT, CLIMATOL, and HOMER, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5379, 2022.

EGU22-6016 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Analyses of the new ESA CCI+ Snow cover fraction climate data record from Terra MODIS and Sentinel-3 SLSTR data 

Gabriele Schwaizer, Thomas Nagler, Markus Hetzenecker, Nico Mölg, Lars Keuris, and Sari Metsämäki

Seasonal snow is one of the terrestrial essential climate variables specified by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). With a coverage of about 45 to 50 Mio. km² of the global land area during the main winter season in the past decades, seasonal snow is the largest component of the cryosphere having a major impact on different processes of the Earth’s system.

Different medium resolution optical satellite data have been exploited in the past few years to monitor the seasonal snow extent on local to global scale. Most of these satellite-based products provide information on the snow viewable from space, i.e. in forested areas the snow viewable on top of the forest canopy, and many of these products provide only binary classification on snow, i.e. a pixel is either snow covered or snow free.

In the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative Extension (CCI+) Snow, a new climate data record (CDR) of daily global snow cover fraction maps with about 1 km pixel spacing was generated from Terra MODIS and Sentinel-3 SLSTR data for the period 2000 – 2020. The daily products of this CDR provide the fraction of snow covered area per pixel in percentage not only for all land areas, but differentiate in forested areas two thematic snow information, the snow cover fraction viewable from above, and the snow cover fraction on the ground. The retrieval method assures that the classified snow cover fraction on ground and the viewable snow cover fraction information are consistent for all observed land areas, allowing the usage of the data sets in different applications. Each daily product contains the unbiased root mean square error per observed pixel as uncertainty estimation. The CDR will be publicly released via the ESA Open Data Portal soon.

Based on the new CDR, the variability of the seasonal snow in the past 20 years is analysed, investigating in detail interannual, seasonal and monthly trends on global and hemispheric scales. The maximum global snow cover in the past 20 years shows overall a negative trend, although the derived interannual variations reach up to 5 Mio. km². The analysis of the seasonal snow extent indicates no significant trend of the maximum snow cover during the main winter season on the Northern Hemisphere (January – March) in the past 20 years. But during the onset and the melting seasons of the Northern Hemisphere, all the trends of the maximum snow area are negative, with the most negative signal in May.

We will present the method used for the generation of the new snow cover fraction CDR from MODIS and SLSTR data and discuss the results of the spatial and temporal analyses of the 20-years time series of global daily snow cover fraction products, including also analyses of the variations in the timing and duration of the snow season for selected regions in the context of the changing climate.

How to cite: Schwaizer, G., Nagler, T., Hetzenecker, M., Mölg, N., Keuris, L., and Metsämäki, S.: Analyses of the new ESA CCI+ Snow cover fraction climate data record from Terra MODIS and Sentinel-3 SLSTR data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6016, 2022.

EGU22-6633 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Observed changes in sea breezes over the Western Mediterranean basin, 1961-2020 

Shalenys Bedoya-Valestt, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Luis Gimeno, Carlo Cafaro, Eduardo Utrabo-Carazo, Miguel Andres-Martin, Jose A. Guijarro, Enric Aguilar, and Manola Brunet

Climate change may affect sea breezes in their magnitude and occurrence, having direct implications for the hydrologic cycle and desertification (i.e., development of sea breeze thunderstorms), air pollution dispersal, wind energy production, to name but a few. To date, trends and multidecadal variability of sea breezes have been barely quantified because of the scarcity of long-term series, the low spatial-temporal resolution and the unreliability of observations over land-sea surfaces. Recent studies showed an increase in the occurrence of sea breeze days for the Eastern Spain, as well as opposite trends between the mean speed and gusts. The causes behind these opposite trends remain unknown because of the complexity of thermally driven coastal wind systems. The aim of this study is to advance in the knowledge of the observed changes in sea breezes over the Western Mediterranean area for 1961-2020, and their likely causes. To do so, we will first apply a robust automated algorithm based on alternative criteria to detect potential sea breeze events. Then, we will use homogenized wind speed and gusts data from sub-daily observations across the Mediterranean region to quantify the magnitude and significance of changes in sea breezes for 1961-2020. Finally, we will estimate the relationship with large-scale circulation (e.g., modes of variability, weather types and mean layer vector wind) and physical-local factors (e.g., land use changes and land-sea air temperature gradient) from ERA5 reanalysis to better understand the likely causes behind the observed changes in sea breezes.

How to cite: Bedoya-Valestt, S., Azorin-Molina, C., Gimeno, L., Cafaro, C., Utrabo-Carazo, E., Andres-Martin, M., Guijarro, J. A., Aguilar, E., and Brunet, M.: Observed changes in sea breezes over the Western Mediterranean basin, 1961-2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6633, 2022.

EGU22-7192 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

The Moon as a Tool for the Calibration of HIRS 

Constanze V. Seibert, Martin J. Burgdorf, Stefan A. Bühler, and Thomas G. Müller

Observations of the Earth’s atmosphere with sensors on a polar orbit employ a two-point calibration using a cold and a hot reference point. The hot reference point is an on-board blackbody target. The cold reference point is the deep-space view. In case of the moon being in the direction of the deep-space view, it provides an additional calibration target.

The infrared-relevant surface properties of the moon are well known. This allows to calculate the temperatures of the sun-illuminated parts for the different helio-centric distances (0.981 ... 1.019 au). The integration over the satellite-centric visible parts of the surface gives the total lunar flux at each HIRS observing epoch. The HIRS instruments have seen the moon under very different phase angles (typically between half moon and full moon) which makes it possible to monitor their performance over a very large range of flux values.

Analysis of calibration scans of High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) on various satellites, which are “contaminated” by the moon, helps to characterize and intercompare the performance of the sensor. We investigated both geometric and radiometric aspects. Among the former we focused on the instantaneous field of view of the various channels, which is sometimes misrepresented in documents and web pages, and compared the values from ground tests to those obtained in flight. We found that the field of view varies slightly with wavelength, and as well between short-wave and long-wave channels. Then we measured the disk-integrated flux at a variety of phase angles to provide observational constraints on a radiative model of the moon (Müller et al. 2020). Such a model is needed to compare directly the flux calibration of future HIRS-like sensors to those that were operational decades ago.

The HIRS instrument has been mounted on various satellites since 1975. By establishing the Moon as an absolute flux standard, it will become possible to clear climate data records from artificial, non-climatic effects that are common to all instruments of a certain type and that can therefore not be identified by postlaunch matchups. The long time series of HIRS is very valuable for climate research, in particular the search for trends in tropospheric humidity.

How to cite: Seibert, C. V., Burgdorf, M. J., Bühler, S. A., and Müller, T. G.: The Moon as a Tool for the Calibration of HIRS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7192, 2022.

EGU22-7366 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

The WINDGUST project: Results of the digitization of historical wind speed observations in Sweden 

Erik Engström, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Christophe Sturm, Magnus Joelsson, Chunlue Zhou, and Deliang Chen

Global wind climate is one of the aspects of the ongoing climate change that until recent days has lacked robust knowledge of past and future trends. IPCC stated in AR6WG1 that the confidence in wind changes is “low” to “medium” which stress that there is still much to learn about wind changes and multidecadal variability in a warming climate (IPCC AR6WG1). One of the reasons have been a shortage of digitally available historical wind observations as input data to studies of historical variations in wind climate.

Here we present the results of work package 1 of the project “Assessing centennial wind speed variability from a historical weather data rescue project in Sweden” (WINDGUST, funded by FORMAS – A Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (ref. 2019-00509)). The WINDGUST project is a joint initiative between the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), the University of Gothenburg (UGOT) and the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) aimed at filling the key gap of short availability and low quality of wind datasets, and improve the limited knowledge on the causes driving wind speed variability in a changing climate across Sweden.

In work package 1 historical wind observations from Sweden have been rescued and digitized during 2020 and 2021. Observations from 13 stations around Sweden, mostly along the coast, for the decades 1920 to 1940 were digitized, adding up to 165 stationyears of data. The digitized data from around 1920 to 2021 is freely available from the SMHI data portal: www.smhi.se/data. Meta data for the digitized stations were also collected and compiled as a support for the following quality control and homogenization in work package 2 in the WINDGUST project also presented at EGU 2022.

The work followed the “Guidelines on Best Practices for Climate Data Rescue” of the World Meteorological Organization and consisted of three steps. These three steps were: (i) designing a template for digitization; (ii) digitizing papers by an imaging process based on scanning and photographs; and (iii) typing numbers of wind speed data into the template and storing the values in the observational data base at the SMHI.

This work has partly been presented earlier in EGU2019-17792-1, EGU2020-349 and EGU21-5848.

How to cite: Engström, E., Azorin-Molina, C., Wern, L., Hellström, S., Sturm, C., Joelsson, M., Zhou, C., and Chen, D.: The WINDGUST project: Results of the digitization of historical wind speed observations in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7366, 2022.

EGU22-7497 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Effects of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on the observed near-surface wind speed in the Northern Hemisphere, 1961-2021 

Eduardo Utrabo-Carazo, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Robert J. H. Dunn, Enric Aguilar, and Manola Brunet

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) are known to have impacts on the tropospheric atmospheric circulation that can persist up to 60 days. The aim of this work is to evaluate the influence of SSW on both observed mean wind speed and daily peak wind gusts across the Northern Hemisphere for 1961-2021. A set of 26 SSW with tropospheric response, including split (12) and displaced (14) events, are chosen for this matter. Daily wind speed means and peak gust data are retrieved from the quality-controlled and sub-daily station dataset: HadISD. The ultimate goal will be to prove the ability of SSW as possible source of predictability in the medium term for surface wind speed across the Northern Hemisphere, which would have direct applications in areas such as: wind-power generation, agriculture and air quality, among many other socioeconomic and environmental issues.

How to cite: Utrabo-Carazo, E., Azorin-Molina, C., Dunn, R. J. H., Aguilar, E., and Brunet, M.: Effects of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on the observed near-surface wind speed in the Northern Hemisphere, 1961-2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7497, 2022.

EGU22-7828 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

A century-long homogenized dataset of near-surface wind speed observations since 1925 rescued in Sweden, HomogWS-se 

Chunlüe Zhou, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Erik Engström, Lorenzo Minola, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Jessika Lönn, and Deliang Chen

The main reasons for the lack of data rescue and homogenization of early near-surface wind speed (WS) observations before the 1960s are insufficient manpower and lack of funding. Funding from the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS) for a joint project (ref. 2019-00509) ‘Assessing centennial wind speed variability from a historical weather data rescue project in Sweden (WINDGUST)’ among the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, the University of Gothenburg, and the Spanish National Research Council, presents a great opportunity to rescue and homogenize the early paper-based WS data in Sweden, for creating a century-long homogenized WS dataset.

Here, we rescued paper-based WS records dating back to the 1920s at 13 stations in Sweden and established a four-step homogenization procedure to generate the first 10-member centennial homogenized WS dataset (HomogWS-se) for community use. First, background climate variation in the rescued WS series was removed, using a verified reanalysis series as a reference series to construct a difference series. A penalized maximal F test at a significance level of 0.05 was then applied to detect artificial change-points. About 38% of the detected change-points were confirmed by the known events recorded in metadata, and the average segment length split by the change-points is ~11.3 years. A mean-matching method using up to five years of data from two adjacent segments was used to adjust the earlier segments relative to the latest segment. The homogenized WS series was then obtained by adding the homogenized difference series back onto the subtracted reference series. Compared with the raw WS data, the homogenized WS data is more continuous and lacks significant non-climatic jumps. The homogenized WS series presents an initial WS stilling and subsequent recovery until the 1990s, whereas the raw WS fluctuates with no clear trend before the 1970s. The homogenized WS shows a 25% reduction in the WS stilling during 1990-2005 than the raw WS, and this reduction is significant when considering the homogenization uncertainty from reference series. The homogenized WS exhibits a significantly stronger correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) than that of the raw WS (0.54 vs 0.29). These results highlight the importance of the century-long homogenized WS series in increasing our ability to detect and attribute multidecadal variability and changes in WS. HomogWS-se will be released on an open-access data repository for community uses, including studying WS changes, assessing model simulations, and constraining future projections of WS and wind energy potential. The proposed homogenization procedure enables other countries or regions to rescue their early climate data and jointly build global long-term high-quality datasets.

How to cite: Zhou, C., Azorin-Molina, C., Engström, E., Minola, L., Wern, L., Hellström, S., Lönn, J., and Chen, D.: A century-long homogenized dataset of near-surface wind speed observations since 1925 rescued in Sweden, HomogWS-se, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7828, 2022.

EGU22-8127 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

A 39-year Convective Systems database using the TOOCAN cloud tracking algorithm and METEOSAT thermal infrared archive 

Thomas Fiolleau, Rémy Roca, Joerg Schulz, John Viju, and Michael Grant

Mesoscale convective systems (MCs) are central to the water and energy cycle of the tropical region. Geostationary satellite observations can provide a useful resource to constraint theoretical and modelling perspectives of the convective systems. Thus, the MCS life cycle information can only be readily obtained using high frequency imagery available from the geostationary orbit. The METEOSAT series of satellites operated by EUMETSAT observe continuously the African and Atlantic region since more than 40 years and offer us the opportunity to improve our understanding of the MCS and to analyze their climatological trends over the region.

We will introduce a MCS database over the African and Atlantic regions built from the long-term thermal infrared METEOSAT first and second-generation archive and from a cloud tracking algorithm called TOOCAN spanning the 1981-2020 period.

The METEOSAT first and second-generation imagers exhibit some spectral window channels disparities, different temporal resolutions, and slight variability in the spatial resolution of the sensors. Moreover, the imagers of the early METEOSAT satellites were designed for qualitative analyses of weather patterns, and the quality of their data do not comply with climate requirements. Finally, the calibration procedure of each instrument is also performed at the individual level with instruments specifics mode of operation. The cloud tracking can be impacted by these various sources of inhomogeneity, and some technical specifications are then required to ensure the validity of the cloud-tracking and to build a 39-year homogenous MCS dataset.

First, by using the multi-sensor infrared channel calibration (MSICC) algorithm relied on the IASI, AIRS and HIRS/2 as reference observations, an intercalibration and spectral band adjustment of the IR long-term database has been performed to reduce the METEOSAT sensors differences. The spatial resolution has been homogenized by remapping each METEOSAT native projection to a 0.04° longitude-latitude equal-angle grid. A final effort has been performed to correct the limb darkening effect, and a careful quality control has been applied on each infrared image. The TOOCAN cloud tracking algorithm has then been applied to this homogenous long-term METEOSAT infrared dataset at a 30-min temporal frequency to build a 39-year tropical convective systems database giving an access to the morphological parameters of around 14×106 MCS along their life cycles.

Finally, we will present our preliminary analyses showing significant trends in MCS occurrence for different geographical regions.

How to cite: Fiolleau, T., Roca, R., Schulz, J., Viju, J., and Grant, M.: A 39-year Convective Systems database using the TOOCAN cloud tracking algorithm and METEOSAT thermal infrared archive, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8127, 2022.

EGU22-8503 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Projected changes in near-surface wind speed over Iberian Peninsula and associated atmosphere-ocean oscillations. 

Miguel Andres Martin, Yue Yu, Cheng Shen, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Kaiqiang Deng, Shalenys Bedoya-Valestt, and Eduardo Utrabo-Carazo

Near-surface wind speed has been one of the forgotten parts of the climate system due to poor quality of observational data and the challenges in its homogenization.  During the last two decades the interest in near-surface wind variability and trends has increased and two main phenomena have been found: the first one is termed “stilling”, indicating a decline of near-surface wind speed between around 1978 and 2010; the other is related to an interruption in the “stilling” since 2000s, known as a “reversal” of the wind speed trends at global and regional scales like China, Sweden or Iberian Peninsula, among others. There are uncertainties about the plausible causes of the variability of the near-surface wind speed, but last research pointed to the role played by decadal atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Under this assumption and a climate change context, a new “stilling” phase is expected for the 21st century. In order to advance in the evaluation and attribution of the causes of the “stilling” and the “reversal” phenomena, the main objective of this study is to analyze projected changes in near-surface wind speed at regional scale, e.g. the Iberian Peninsula. The methodology consists in a comparison between observed wind speed data of the Iberian Peninsula and historical simulations from CMIP6 models, followed by a study of wind speed variability and trends of CMIP6 models under low to high greenhouse gas forcing scenarios in the future. The analyses will focus on quantifying the long-term changes in near surface wind speed and their relationship with dominant modes of variability in the Pacific and Atlantic (e.g., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation).

 

How to cite: Andres Martin, M., Yu, Y., Shen, C., Azorin-Molina, C., Deng, K., Bedoya-Valestt, S., and Utrabo-Carazo, E.: Projected changes in near-surface wind speed over Iberian Peninsula and associated atmosphere-ocean oscillations., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8503, 2022.

Snow is an essential meteorological element and also an indicator of the fluctuating climate, resulting from change in the regime of winter precipitation and air temperature. Taking into account the recent tendencies of a warming climate, it is important to quantify these changes and their influence on snow amount and duration, which have significant consequences on several economic and environmental aspects.

Data from 20 stations with altitudes ranging from 50 up to 2925 m a. s. l. for the period 1961-2017 have been used for testing of the following winter characteristics: mean monthly air temperatures, days with snowfalls, days with rains and days with mixed precipitation and the corresponding monthly precipitation amounts. The air temperatures during snowfalls have been also examined. Except for the stations at highest altitudes (above 2000 m) no significant trends in precipitation quantities have been found. Decreasing trends of the days with snowfalls and the opposite for the days with rain and mixed precipitation have been detected. Almost all of stations show also increasing trends of the air temperatures both monthly as well as event based. Most of these trends are significant at 0.05 level. One secondary effect of this temperature rise is the enhancing of the severe wet snow events, which have been considerably intensified recently.

Another 35 stations with long data sets (1930/35 – 2019) have been used to evaluate the following snow characteristics for 3 main climatological reference periods – 1931-60, 1961-90 and 1991-2020: days with snow cover, averaged and maximal snow depth. No significant change for the maxima has been detected but the comparisons of other two variable depict significant differences.

This study has been funded by the National Science Fund in two separated projects under the contract numbers DM14/1 in the program for junior researchers and post-doc and KP-Austria-2 in the bilateral scientific program with Austria.

How to cite: Nikolov, D.: Assessment of the Recent Tendencies of the Winter Precipitations and the Snow Cover in Bulgaria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10502, 2022.

EGU22-11091 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Novel estimates of global mean temperature from land- vs. ocean-based records reveal high consistency except for early 20th century ocean cold anomaly 

Sebastian Sippel, Nicolai Meinshausen, Erich Fischer, Iris de Vries, and Reto Knutti

Global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT) is a key diagnostic of climate change and a key metric for climate policies. Yet, global temperature datasets (1) are usually based on blending the sea surface temperature (SST) record with land surface air temperature (LSAT) data, and (2) contain a large number of missing values due to incomplete coverage, particularly in the early record. These issues are usually accounted for in model-observation comparisons via a similar processing of models and/or statistical infilling, but an apple-to-apple comparison between LSAT and SST records in their contribution to GSAT estimates, and also in their spatial consistency, remains difficult. 

 

Here, we present a set of novel GSAT estimates based separately on either the LSAT or SST record, and climate model information. The method is based on regularized linear regression models that are trained on climate model simulations to optimally predict GSAT from the climate model’s LSAT or SST predictors, respectively, which are masked to match the observational coverage at any given time step. In a second step, the derived statistical models are used to predict GSAT from the HadSST4 (SST) and CRUTEM5 (LSAT) observational data, respectively, and for any observational coverage from January 1850 up to December 2020. In addition, we generate a variant of these estimates that explicitly take into account the estimated errors as well as bias realizations for HadSST4 and CRUTEM5 data in the GSAT prediction. 

 

We show that the resulting independent, land- and ocean based GSAT estimates are remarkably consistent since around 1950: the squared correlation between the land- and ocean GSAT estimates is 0.98 for annual and 0.92 for monthly data, whereas it is only 0.94 (annual) and 0.77 (monthly), for the original CRUTEM5 and HadSST4 global land and ocean  time series. In addition, the 1950-2020 long-term trends in GSAT estimates are virtually identical when inferred independently from land- or ocean data (1.14°C or 1.17°C warming per 71 years, respectively), and GSAT of the past decade (2011-2020) increased by 1.18°C (LSAT-based) and 1.15°C (SST-based) relative to an early period (1850-1880).

 

However, the GSAT estimates show a pronounced period of disagreement in the early 20th century (1900 up to around 1920), when the SST-based GSAT estimates appear up to about 0.5°C (0.3°C on average) colder than the LSAT-based estimate, with important implications for the magnitude of the early 20th century warming. This finding is consistent with concerns about biased observed estimates raised in the literature, and is potentially related to instrumental cold biases in SST measurements, but overall reasons for the disagreement remain largely unclear. We show several lines of evidence, based on statistical analysis, physical reasoning and comparison with climate models, which indicate that the ocean data may indeed be implausibly cold. However, the early 20th century ocean cold anomaly, as well as the associated strong early 20th century ocean warming, require further study.

How to cite: Sippel, S., Meinshausen, N., Fischer, E., de Vries, I., and Knutti, R.: Novel estimates of global mean temperature from land- vs. ocean-based records reveal high consistency except for early 20th century ocean cold anomaly, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11091, 2022.

EGU22-11640 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

A gridded wind speed observation product using artificial intelligence for Eastern Iberian Peninsula 

Makki Khorchani, Lihong Zhou, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Xin Jiang, Shalenys Bedoya-Valestt, Eduardo Utrabo-Carazo, Miguel Andres-Martin, Gangfeng Zhang, and Zhenzhong Zeng

Abstract: The demand for high spatially distributed wind speed data is substantially increasing during the last decades. This increase stems from its crucial role for climate change studies and many socioeconomic and environmental issues, e.g., wind power generation. However, observed wind speed records from weather stations do not cover this demand due to their coarse spatial resolution and inhomogeneous time scales, limiting the possibility of developing accurate gridded wind speed products using traditional geostatistical gridding methods. Moreover, wind speed from reanalyses and climate simulations does not accurately reproduce observed wind speed and gusts at regional scales. For instance, it lacks capturing the multidecadal variability of wind speed, e.g., the stilling (decline in winds) vs. the reversal (increase in winds) phenomena.

Artificial Intelligence is a powerful tool that can overcome these data availability and quality limitations of wind observations. In this study, we apply artificial intelligence to reconstruct wind speed data from in situ weather observations in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula, focusing on the Valencia region. The generated time series are then implemented to develop a high spatial resolution gridded wind speed observations at a regional scale. This new gridded wind speed dataset will allow computing, e.g., wind indices as a climate service for multiple socioeconomic and environmental sectors.

Keywords: wind speed; time series reconstruction; machine learning; gridded wind speed product

How to cite: Khorchani, M., Zhou, L., Azorin-Molina, C., Jiang, X., Bedoya-Valestt, S., Utrabo-Carazo, E., Andres-Martin, M., Zhang, G., and Zeng, Z.: A gridded wind speed observation product using artificial intelligence for Eastern Iberian Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11640, 2022.

EGU22-12550 | Presentations | CL5.3.5

Homogenization of global early instrumental data 

Elin Lundstad

Instrumental meteorological observations are crucial for the analysis of climate backwards in time to reconstruct climate variations. However, the collection of instrumental data dating back to 1658 allows many of the long climate series to have often been affected by inhomogeneities (artificial shifts) due to changes in measurement conditions (relocations, instrumentation, change in environment, etc.). To deal with this problem, homogenization procedures have been developed to detect and adjust inhomogeneities. Homogenization in climate research means the removal of non-climatic changes. Next to changes in the climate itself, raw climate records also contain non-climatic jumps and changes for example due to relocations or changes in instrumentation.

This presentation describes the homogenization of the early instrumental dataset (HCLIM) of monthly mean temperature time series and other parameters such as precipitation and air pressure.

New homogenization algorithm validation methodology will be assessed by early instrumental data, and its use to assess the skills of three different algorithms, when applied to early instrumental data. The methods tested were PHA, HOMER and SPLIDHOM.

How to cite: Lundstad, E.: Homogenization of global early instrumental data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12550, 2022.

Understanding the ongoing climate change is impossible without evaluating the contributions of both anthropogenic and natural variabilities. In present paper, natural variability is examined by estimating the dependence of snow cover extent on surface air temperature variations of the Northern Hemisphere for the last several decades. The relationship was evaluated with correlation analysis of the results of simulations with the ensemble of global climate models CMIP6 and the respected satellite and ERA5 reanalyzes data. The estimated snow cover extent sensitivity to the temperature changes for the last four decades (1979 2019) has been compared with that obtained for the last fifteen years (2005–2019). Seasonal features of the snow cover extent temperature relationship have been noted, particularly during the formation of snow cover in autumn. An increase in the absolute value of the sensitivity parameter of the snow cover extent to the surface air temperature changes is noted, with an overall statistically insignificant negative correlation for the last four decades.

How to cite: Parfenova, M., Arzhanov, M., and Mokhov, I. I.: Estimates of the dependence of snow cover extent on surface air temperature variations of the Northern Hemisphere for the last several decades, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12730, 2022.

EGU22-949 | Presentations | BG3.8

Coordination of plant hydraulic and photosynthetic traits: confronting optimality theory with field measurements 

Huiying Xu, Han Wang, I. Colin Prentice, Sandy Harrison, and Ian Wright

Close coupling between water loss and carbon dioxide uptake requires coordination of plant hydraulics and photosynthesis. However, there is still limited information on the quanti- tative relationships between hydraulic and photosynthetic traits. We propose a basis for these relationships based on optimality theory, and test its predic- tions by analysis of measurements on 107 species from 11 sites, distributed along a nearly 3000-m elevation gradient. Hydraulic and leaf economic traits were less plastic, and more closely associated with phy- logeny, than photosynthetic traits. The two sets of traits were linked by the sapwood to leaf area ratio (Huber value, vH). The observed coordination between vH and sapwood hydraulic conductivity (KS) and photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax) conformed to the proposed quantitative theory. Substantial hydraulic diversity was related to the trade-off between KS and vH. Leaf drought tolerance (inferred from turgor loss point, –Ψtlp) increased with wood density, but the trade-off between hydraulic efficiency (KS) and –Ψtlp was weak. Plant trait effects on vH were dominated by variation in KS, while effects of environment were dominated by variation in temperature. This research unifies hydraulics, photosynthesis and the leaf economics spectrum in a com- mon theoretical framework, and suggests a route towards the integration of photosynthesis and hydraulics in land-surface models.

How to cite: Xu, H., Wang, H., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S., and Wright, I.: Coordination of plant hydraulic and photosynthetic traits: confronting optimality theory with field measurements, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-949, 2022.

EGU22-995 | Presentations | BG3.8

Applying eco-evolutionary optimality principles to predict leaf area index 

Wenjia Cai and Iain Colin Prentice

Leaf area index (LAI), defined as one-sided green leaf area per unit ground area, is an important biophysical property of terrestrial vegetation. As the primary locus of mass and energy exchange, leaf area is directly linked with carbon assimilation, evapotranspiration, and the energy and carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems. Predicting the response of terrestrial vegetation under climate change requires accurate characterization of plant biophysical and biochemical processes in which LAI is a key determinant. Despite many successes, global vegetation and land surface models are still subject to systematic failures and divergences between model projections, indicating a need to develop and test more reliable representations of vegetation-climate interactions. LAI in particular is not well constrained by current models. Here we apply eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles to derive a parsimonious approach to the prediction of LAI by balancing net carbon gain and water loss. Plants are expected to optimally allocate carbon to foliage for light capture and CO2 acquisition, until water losses via transpiration make further canopy development unsustainable. We hypothesize that LAI is limited by the minimum of two values determined by the energy supply for photosynthesis and the water supply by precipitation, respectively. With simple equations, requiring far fewer parameters than typical complex models, we demonstrate a gridded simulated annual maximum LAI that is broadly consistent with a similar measure derived from remotely sensed observations. Further development of this model over different time scales, and its incorporation into vegetation models, would be beneficial to achieve better carbon cycle projections in a changing world.

How to cite: Cai, W. and Prentice, I. C.: Applying eco-evolutionary optimality principles to predict leaf area index, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-995, 2022.

EGU22-1029 | Presentations | BG3.8

Optimality principles explaining divergent responses of alpine vegetation to environmental change 

Ziqi Zhu, Han Wang, Sandy P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, Shengchao Qiao, and Shen Tan

Recent increases in vegetation cover, observed over much of the world, reflect increasing CO2 globally and warming in cold areas. However, the strength of the response to both CO2 and warming appears to be declining. Here we examine changes in vegetation cover on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 35 years. Although the climate trends are similar across the Plateau, drier regions have become greener by 0.31±0.14% yr−1 while wetter regions have become browner by 0.12±0.08% yr–1. This divergent response is predicted by a universal model of primary production accounting for optimal carbon allocation to leaves, subject to constraint by water availability. Rising CO2 stimulates production in both greening and browning areas; increased precipitation enhances growth in dry regions, but growth is reduced in wetter regions because warming increases below-ground allocation costs. The declining sensitivity of vegetation to climate change reflects a shift from water to energy limitation. 

How to cite: Zhu, Z., Wang, H., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Qiao, S., and Tan, S.: Optimality principles explaining divergent responses of alpine vegetation to environmental change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1029, 2022.

EGU22-1111 | Presentations | BG3.8

Investigating C3/C4 plants competition using carbon isotopes and optimality principles 

Aliénor Lavergne, Sandy P. Harrison, and Iain Colin Prentice

Understanding the mechanisms underlying changes in carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) in C3 and C4 plants is critical for predicting the C3/C4 fraction in mixed ecosystems. Variations in Δ13C are closely related to changes in the stomatal limitation of photosynthesis (i.e. the ratio of leaf internal to ambient partial pressure of CO2, ci/ca), which are in turn determined by environmental variables, but also depend on the pathway of carbon assimilation. For instance, isotopic fractionation during the diffusion of CO2 through the stomata primarily influences Δ13C in C4 plants, while fractionation during Rubisco carboxylation has a stronger imprint on Δ13C in C3 plants. As a result, C3 plants are depleted in 13C compared to C4 plants. Isotopic measurements can thus be used as tracers of physiological processes in plants.

Here we implement Δ13C formulations for C3 and C4 plants in the optimal P model to investigate the abundance of C3 and C4 plants at different locations across the globe. We first test model predictions of Δ13C (and hence ci/ca) for the two carbon pathways against a large network of isotopic measurements from leaves. We then predict the expected mean Δ13C in soil organic materials after plants decomposition using maps of C3/C4 plants distribution and assess model predictions with real isotopic measurements. Based on our results, we propose a model to predict the competition of C3/C4 plants as a response to environmental variations in different ecosystems.

How to cite: Lavergne, A., Harrison, S. P., and Prentice, I. C.: Investigating C3/C4 plants competition using carbon isotopes and optimality principles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1111, 2022.

EGU22-1331 | Presentations | BG3.8 | Highlight

Towards a land surface model based on optimality principles 

Giulia Mengoli, Sandy P. Harrison, and Iain Colin Prentice

Plants take up water from the soil via roots and release it into the atmosphere through stomata; uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere also proceeds through the stomata, implying tight coupling of transpiration and photosynthesis. We distinguish leaf-level (biochemical and stomatal) responses to external stimuli on different timescales: fast responses taking place over seconds to hours, and longer-term (acclimation) responses taking place over weeks to months. Typically, land-surface models (LSMs) have focused on the fast responses, and have not accounted for acclimation responses, although these can be different in magnitude and even in sign. We have developed a method that explicitly separates these two timescales in order to implement an existing optimality-based model, the P model, with a sub-daily timestep; and, thereby, to include acclimated responses within an LSM framework. The resulting model, compared to flux-tower gross primary production (GPP) data in five “well-watered” biomes from boreal to tropical, correctly reproduces diurnal cycles of GPP throughout the growing season. No changes of parameters are required between biomes, because optimality ensures that current parameter values are always adapted to the local environment. This is a clear practical advantage because it eliminates the need to specify different parameter values for different plant functional types. However, in areas with large seasonal variations in moisture variability, the model does not perform well. Here we address the issue of soil-moisture controls on GPP, which is a challenging issue for LSMs in general. We note two problems: an error in magnitude, and an error in shape. The model tends to overestimate GPP in dry areas because it does not consider the effect of low soil moisture (as opposed to atmospheric dryness) on photosynthesis; and it does not simulate the ‘midday depression’ that is observed under very high vapour pressure deficits. Moving beyond commonly used (empirical) water-stress formulations, we have incorporated soil moisture limitation on photosynthesis in the sub-daily P model. The main idea is to control GPP via hydraulic limitation. The revised model firstly assesses the “demand”—the transpiration that would take place under well-watered conditions—then constrains the actual transpiration at a rate that does not exceed the canopy’s estimated hydraulic capacity. This transpiration rate is then used to obtain revised rates of stomatal conductance and GPP, “corrected” for water stress. Preliminary results evaluating the revised model’s performances against flux tower measurements at dry sites are encouraging, suggesting a route towards a parameter-sparse and globally applicable LSM.

How to cite: Mengoli, G., Harrison, S. P., and Prentice, I. C.: Towards a land surface model based on optimality principles, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1331, 2022.

Phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) in climate space implies consistent climate responses of plant taxa distributed across different geographical regions. PNC can be considered as an expected consequence of optimizing selection. Optimizing selection favours appropriate combinations of plant traits and maintains these combinations over evolutionary time. It enables species to track their optimal environmental conditions, and governs the climatic tolerances of plant lineages. PNC is implicitly required by pollen-based palaeoclimate reconstruction. As pollen is rarely identifiable to the species level by morphological classification, climatic PNC at higher taxonomic levels can justify the use of geographically extensive data sets of contemporary pollen assemblages in the reconstruction of climates of the geologically recent past.

We set out to evaluate the PNC hypothesis in two genera, Picea and Quercus, that are widely distributed in the Holarctic phytogeographic realm. These genera are characteristic of boreal and temperate forest biomes, respectively. We characterized the realized climatic niches of 29 Picea and 160 Quercus species by their optima (u) and tolerances (t) using Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) in a three-dimensional climate space defined by a moisture index (MI, representing plant-available moisture), mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO, representing winter cold) and growing degree days above a base level of 5 ℃ (GDD5, representing summer warmth). We then used phylogenetic analyses and published phylogenetic data to test whether more closely related species occupy more similar climatic niches. We designed an R function, and developed an index of niche overlap, to test whether the combined climatic ranges of species within each genus are coherent in present-day climate space.

The correlation between climatic niche separation and phylogenetic distance in Picea was found to be weak. This is probably either because (i) parallel evolution leads to similarity among distantly related species; or (ii) analyses on a small phylogenetic scale amplify the divergence among closely related species. Nevertheless, the genus Picea as a whole occupies a coherent climatic niche, consistent with PNC. Quercus showed positive correlations between climatic niche separation and phylogenetic distance. A consistent climatic differentiation between predominantly evergreen versus deciduous clades indicates climatic PNC within major Quercus clades.

These results indicate phylogenetically conserved climatic niches in plant clades with broad geographical distributions, and support the inference of Quaternary climate changes based on pollen assemblages at genus or subgenus levels.

How to cite: Li, J. and Prentice, I. C.: Phylogenetic niche conservatism of Picea and Quercus: analysis and implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1751, 2022.

EGU22-1752 | Presentations | BG3.8

Optimal trait theory: testing predictions on the Northeast China Transect 

Ruijie Ding, Ning Dong, Jian Ni, and Iain Colin Prentice

Recently developed ecosystem models based on eco-evolutionary optimality hypotheses can predict many aspects of the carbon, water and nutrient economy of ecosystems. These models have focused on various key plant functional traits and their environmental controls. Gross primary production (GPP) is partly determined by the ratio of intercellular to ambient CO2 concentrations (χ), which can be inferred from leaf stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C). The effect of nitrogen (N) supply on GPP is mediated by the allocation of carbon (C) to leaves, while leaf-level photosynthetic traits (e.g. χ and photosynthetic capacity) and morphological traits (e.g leaf size and leaf mass per area, LMA) are modified or constrained by climate. The amount of N in the leaf is related in part to the quantity of photosynthetic enzymes, indexed by carboxylation capacity at standard temperature (Vcmax,25), and in part to LMA – as all plant tissues, including cell walls, contain N. Plant N isotope ratios (δ15N) are sensitive to the partitioning of N loss from soil between the gaseous and leaching pathways (a balance that is strongly under climatic control), and also to plants’ N uptake strategy (mycorrhizal type or symbiotic N-fixation).

Plant and ecosystem data collected on the Northeast China Transect (NECT) are used here to test a series of quantitative trait predictions based on optimality principles. The NECT is characterized by a long continuous gradient in precipitation and community structure, ranging from moist forests in the east, via grasslands, to semi-desert in the west. We investigated the relationships among leaf traits, ecosystem properties and N loss pathways, including χ, LMA, leaf N per unit area (Narea), leaf area index (LAI, inferred from satellite data), above-ground biomass, and δ15N. The calculations involve testable predictions of intermediate quantities, including community-mean photosynthetic capacity and GPP. By reproducing observed patterns of trait variation along the NECT, this analysis has provided empirical support for an emerging, optimality-based theory for the coupling of C and N cycles in terrestrial ecosystems.

 

How to cite: Ding, R., Dong, N., Ni, J., and Prentice, I. C.: Optimal trait theory: testing predictions on the Northeast China Transect, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1752, 2022.

EGU22-1847 | Presentations | BG3.8 | Highlight

Reductions in photosynthetic nitrogen demand due to elevated CO2 increases simulated future ecosystem carbon storage 

Nicholas Smith, Qing Zhu, Trevor Keenan, and William Riley

Photosynthesis is the largest flux of carbon between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface and is driven by proteins that require nitrogen. Thus, photosynthesis is a key linkage between the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycles, and the representation of this linkage is  critical for coupled carbon-nitrogen land surface models. Most models use a scheme that assumes that photosynthetic nitrogen is driven by soil nitrogen availability. This contributes to projected future reductions in the CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis, as this fertilization becomes limited by nitrogen availability. However, recent results suggest that photosynthetic nitrogen is determined by leaf nitrogen demand, which is set by aboveground conditions, and that future increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 should reduce photosynthetic nitrogen demand. Here, we used recently developed photosynthetic optimality theory to incorporate the effect of reduced photosynthetic demand for nitrogen into the land surface component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM). We simulated land surface processes under future elevated CO2 conditions to 2100 using the RCP 8.5 scenario. Our simulations showed that photosynthesis increases under future conditions, but leaf nitrogen declines. This nitrogen savings led to an increase in simulated leaf area, which increased GPP and ecosystem carbon in 2100. These results suggest that land surface models may overestimate future nitrogen limitation of photosynthesis if they do not incorporate future reductions in photosynthetic nitrogen demand.

How to cite: Smith, N., Zhu, Q., Keenan, T., and Riley, W.: Reductions in photosynthetic nitrogen demand due to elevated CO2 increases simulated future ecosystem carbon storage, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1847, 2022.

EGU22-2886 | Presentations | BG3.8

Prediction of leaf area dynamics by maximizing the Net Carbon Profit 

Remko C. Nijzink and Stanislaus J. Schymanski

Leaf area dynamics are often prescribed in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) or based on predefined carbon allocation rules and plant functional types. However, reliance on observational data hampers predictions under future scenarios, as leaf area dynamics and allocation patterns may change due to feedbacks with soil and atmosphere. Therefore, dynamical modelling of leaf area in TBMs based on fundamental principles could greatly improve our ability to better understand and predict vegetation response to environmental change.

The Vegetation Optimality Model (VOM, Schymanski et al., 2009) uses an optimality principle based on the maximization of the Net Carbon Profit (NCP) to predict vegetation properties such as root distributions, photosynthetic capacity and vegetation cover at the daily time scale, as well as water and CO2 exchange at the hourly scale. The NCP is defined as the difference between the total CO2 assimilated by photosynthesis and the carbon costs for construction and maintenance of the light and water harvesting plant organs. In a previous study (Nijzink et al. 2021), we found that the VOM systematically overestimated wet season light absorption and CO2 uptake along the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), suggesting that the original big-leaf approach may be missing self-shading effects at high leaf area index (LAI) values. Therefore, we extended the VOM to explicitly consider light absorption as a function of the LAI, and dynamically optimize LAI while considering the carbon costs and benefits of maintaining leaf area. The model was extended step-wise while its predictions were compared to measurements at five flux tower sites along the NATT, with a strong precipitation gradient from north to south.

Here we present the insights gained from this process, including the importance of considering sunlit and shaded leaf area fractions, and separate optimization of photosynthetic capacity for each. In a first step, dynamical leaf area was introduced in the VOM without considering shading, which led to a relatively high CO2-assimilation. Nevertheless, including shaded and sunlit leaf fractions in the big leaf approach of the VOM was not sufficient, as in nature, shaded leaves in the lower canopy have lower photosynthetic capacities than the mostly sunlit upper canopy leaves. For this reason, a separate optimization of photosynthetic capacities, in order to maximize the NCP, was included for shaded and sunlit leaves. Eventually, we will compare the modelled leaf area dynamics and fluxes with remotely sensed LAI and locally measured fluxes at the different flux tower sites along the NATT.

 

References

Nijzink, R. C., Beringer, J., Hutley, L. B., and Schymanski, S. J.:, 2021. Does maximization of net carbon profit enable the prediction of vegetation behaviour in savanna sites along a precipitation gradient?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-265, accepted

Schymanski, S.J., Sivapalan, M., Roderick, M.L., Hutley, L.B., Beringer, J., 2009. An optimality‐based model of the dynamic feedbacks between natural vegetation and the water balance. Water Resources Research 45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006841

How to cite: Nijzink, R. C. and Schymanski, S. J.: Prediction of leaf area dynamics by maximizing the Net Carbon Profit, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2886, 2022.

EGU22-3531 | Presentations | BG3.8

Nighttime temperature and optimal photosynthetic capacity over the past fortnight jointly control the acclimation of leaf respiration 

Yanghang Ren, Han Wang, Sandy P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, Peter B. Reich, Nicholas G. Smith, and Artur Stefanski

Leaf dark respiration (Rd) accounts for approximately 50% of plant respiration. The acclimation of plant respiration to temperature weakens the positive feedback to global warming. Most existing land surface models (LSMs) adopt an empirical leaf respiration scheme with a constant Rd25 (leaf dark respiration rate at 25°C) for each vegetation type, since there is no acceptable theory of Rd acclimation and how it varies temporally and spatially. Here we propose that Rd25 adjusts to prior nighttime temperature (Tnight) to maintain the ratio of Rd to photosynthesis capacity (Vcmax) approximately constant. To test this hypothesis and explore the time scale of acclimation, we predict Rd25 over different time windows and evaluate these predictions using data from 14 sites from two datasets (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) experiment and Leaf Carbon Exchange dataset (LCE)), one of which provides measurements through time and the other across spatial gradients. Predictions that account for the combined effects of Vcmax and Tnight have better predictive power for all species (mean R2=0.4) than considering the effect of one factor alone. Predictions of acclimation on different timescales show that Vcmax and Tnight averaged over the past fortnight explain the most variation in observed Rd25. These results could provide an alternative solution to the leaf respiration schemes used in LSMs.

How to cite: Ren, Y., Wang, H., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Reich, P. B., Smith, N. G., and Stefanski, A.: Nighttime temperature and optimal photosynthetic capacity over the past fortnight jointly control the acclimation of leaf respiration, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3531, 2022.

EGU22-3963 | Presentations | BG3.8

Modelling solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence using the P-model, an optimality-based model for vegetation productivity. 

Catherine Morfopoulos, Chuanxin Gu, and Prentice Iain Colin

Photosynthesis is the core engine of vegetation productivity, usually estimated by Gross Primary Production (GPP), the rate of carbon fixed by photosynthesis per unit of ground area. A better understanding of ecosystem productivity relies on two main streams of information: observations and modelling. However, both streams have severe limitations with respect to GPP: 1- no large-scale measurements exist for GPP, 2- while satellites typically measure light reflectance by foliage, the light reactions (i.e., light absorption by photosystems generating reduction power and energy for carbon-fixation) are still described empirically in vegetation models.

Part of the energy absorbed by the Chlorophyll pigments is radiatively dissipated through fluorescence. In the recent years, using narrow band observations in the oxygen A-band, first global Solar Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) measurements were obtained opening a new insight for estimates of vegetation photosynthesis. Yet, fluorescence quenching is a passive energy quenching and fluorescence yields are dependant of the faction of energy used for photochemistry and dissipated through non-photochemical quenching (NPQ). Thus direct comparison between GPP and SIF can lead to misinterpretation.

In this study, we append the P-model to include SIF simulations. The P-model is a new-generation vegetation model based on optimality principles and require minimal parametrisation. Two approaches to simulate fluorescence yield are tested. The first one is based on the van der Tol et al. (2014) fluorescence model and simulate fluorescence using an empirical method. The second is based on recent development from Johnson and Berry (Johnson and Berry, 2021), who proposed a process-based model for partitioning absorbed light between photochemistry, NPQ and fluorescence. The two approaches are evaluated and assessed against SIF satellite products.

How to cite: Morfopoulos, C., Gu, C., and Iain Colin, P.: Modelling solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence using the P-model, an optimality-based model for vegetation productivity., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3963, 2022.

EGU22-4652 | Presentations | BG3.8

Stomatal optimization under uncertain climate: the role of discounting 

Yair Mau and Yuval Bayer

Optimality principles have been used to explain stomatal behavior, assuming that plants maximize carbon assimilation, while minimizing water expenditures. This optimization is often realized in models under arbitrary time horizons, from instantaneous optimization to unknown time periods of days and weeks. Here we introduce the concept of “discounting” to the optimization framework. Simply put, discounting makes the assumption that a plant cares more about its fluxes of carbon and water at the present moment than those in the future, where a “discount rate” is used to quantify the amount by which the present is more valued than the future. We explore how the plant continually updates its prior density functions (in the Bayesian sense) regarding future climatic conditions, and how this mechanism relates to memory. We also show that instantaneous optimization and the usual optimization over a fixed period of time are but the extremes in a rich spectrum of behavior in the discount rate axis. Finally, we discuss how to link the idea of discounting to risk attitudes and isohydricity.

How to cite: Mau, Y. and Bayer, Y.: Stomatal optimization under uncertain climate: the role of discounting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4652, 2022.

EGU22-8590 | Presentations | BG3.8

Optimality in (sub)optimal conditions; Leaf stoichiometry in response to contrasting CO2 and phosphorus fertilization 

Jan Lankhorst, Karin Rebel, Jerry van Dijk, and Hugo de Boer

Theorethical Eco-Evolutionary Optimality (EEO) hypotheses are proving helpful in representing leaf-level processes, but are scarcely applied to whole plant levels. Applying EEO approaches at plant level can provide simple ways of representing plant- and ecosystem interactions and dynamics, especially when incorporating anthropogenic environmental impacts. An increase in plant productivity related to, for example, increased emission of CO2 and Nitrogen (N), will likely increase limitation by other essential nutrients and minerals, such as phosphorus (P). Interacting effects of elevated CO2 and limitation of essential nutrients are thought to affect plant tissue concentrations, organ growth rates, and photosynthetic capacities. However, it remains uncertain how plant-level reactions to varying nutritional resources affects optimality in plant functioning. Here we used plants with contrasting nutrient limitations to test EEO theoretical optimal photosynthetic traits and the corresponding internal nutrient allocation. It is hypothesised that (I) relative allocation of N and P towards the leaf will decrease under rising CO2 to optimize photosynthesis in relation to transpiration and (II) effects of P deficiency on growth will be relatively stronger in plants grown in high CO2 conditions compared to lower CO2 concentrations. Preliminary data was collected from a phytotron experiment focussing on the combined effect of P limitation and CO2 fertilization. In this experiment, plant photosynthetic traits (e.g. photosynthetic maximum carboxylation rate, Vcmax, and electron transport rate, Jmax) were measured on three different plant species, Holcus lanatus, Panicum miliaceum, and Solanum dulcamara (a C3 grass, a C4 grass, and a C3 herb respectively). They were grown at either low (150ppm), ambient (450ppm), or high (800ppm) CO2 concentrations, and given one of either treatments; sufficient P in an N:P ratio of 1:1, or severely limiting P in an N:P ratio of 45:1 with a similar supply of N. Preliminary results suggest that decreased availability of P limits Vcmax and Jmax, constraining the maximum photosynthesis rate. This effect is amplified in low CO2 conditions, as this triggers plants to increase their photosynthetic capacities when nutrients are sufficiently available. Measured leaf N and P concentrations, alongside Vcmax and Jmax, will be additionally used to determine leaf stoichiometry and photosynthetic P-use efficiency as a result of fertilization. Applied N and P will be compared with leaf concentrations to evaluate their relative allocation. Results will be used to validate EEO model predictions on optimality in suboptimal conditions.

How to cite: Lankhorst, J., Rebel, K., van Dijk, J., and de Boer, H.: Optimality in (sub)optimal conditions; Leaf stoichiometry in response to contrasting CO2 and phosphorus fertilization, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8590, 2022.

EGU22-9084 | Presentations | BG3.8 | Highlight

Optimality-based modelling of wheat sowing dates globally 

Shengchao Qiao, Sandy P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, and Han Wang

Wheat sowing dates are currently used as an input for crop models that simulated wheat production. However, the optimal time for planting wheat will be affected by climate changes and human adaptations to these changes. In this paper, we present an optimality-based modelling approach, with additional constraints from low temperature and precipitation intensity, to estimate wheat sowing dates globally. This approach assumes that wheat could be sown at any time when the climate conditions are suitable, but the optimal sowing date that would be adopted by farmers would be that which maximises overall grain yields. We therefore run the model starting on every possible sowing date as determined by the climate constraints and then select the date which gives the highest yield in each location. We compare the modelled optimal sowing dates with an updated version of observed sowing dates created by merging census-based datasets and local agronomic information. Cold season temperatures are the major determinant of sowing dates in the extra-tropics, whereas the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall plays an important role in determining sowing dates in the tropics. The model captures the timing of reported sowing dates, with difference between estimated and observed sowing dates of less than one month (< 30 days) over much of the world;  maximum errors in tropical regions with large altitudinal gradients, such as Ethiopia, Bolivia and Peru, are up to two months. Discrepancies between the predictions and observations are larger in tropical regions than temperate and cold regions. Our approach for estimating optimal wheat sowing dates provides a way to examine human management decisions could mitigate the impacts of climate change on crop systems.

How to cite: Qiao, S., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., and Wang, H.: Optimality-based modelling of wheat sowing dates globally, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9084, 2022.

EGU22-9428 | Presentations | BG3.8

The carbon cost of Transpiration from Optimality Theory 

David Sandoval, Alienor Lavergne, and Colin Prentice

Optimality theory states that the plants balance the carbon cost of photosynthesis with the cost of absorbing water thus satisfying a.δ(E/A)/δχ = -b. δ(Vcmax/A)/δχ, where χ is the ratio of leaf intercellular to ambient partial pressure of CO2, “a” is the cost of maintaining the transpiration rate (E), required to support assimilation at a rate A under normal daytime conditions. While “b” is the cost of maintaining carboxylation capacity (Vcmax) at the level required to support assimilation at the same rate. Thus, the “a” cost, theoretically, should express the unit of maintenance respiration of the sapwood per unit of transpiration.

Here, we developed a mathematical expression to calculate the expected “a” cost (aexp) under the optimality framework of the P-model using eddy covariance measurements of CO2 exchange combined with environmental and transpiration measurements from the SAPFLUXNET database.

We then compared aexp against two theoretical formulations of “a”. One (noted atheo1) was estimated as a function of the viscosity of water at a given temperature η(T) compared to that at 25°C, which was proposed by Wang et al., (2017, Nat. Plants). And a second one (noted atheo2), proposed by Prentice et al., (2014, Ecol. Lett.) where “a” depends on the soil-leaf water potential gradient (Δψ), η(T) and parameters defining hydraulic traits and respiration which were obtained from the literature.

The seasonal pattern of aexp suggests that it is more costly for the ecosystem to transpire during the dry months. We found that atheo1 has opposite seasonal variations to aexp and strongly underestimates “a” during dry months. In contrast, atheo2 shows similar seasonal variations to aexp but generally overestimates the aexp values by almost 4 times. Simple regression analyses showed, as expected, that aexp  is inversely proportional to Δψ, but that, opposite to what was expected, it increases with a reduction of the water viscosity.

Overall, our results suggest that an improved formulation of the cost ratio “a” should account for the effect of water stress on transpiration and assimilation in the optimality theory.

How to cite: Sandoval, D., Lavergne, A., and Prentice, C.: The carbon cost of Transpiration from Optimality Theory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9428, 2022.

EGU22-9596 | Presentations | BG3.8

Effects of rising CO2 concentrations on photosynthetic traits and leaf morphology to test optimality framework 

Astrid Odé, Karin Rebel, Martine van der Ploeg, and Hugo de Boer

The eco-evolutionary optimality principle, which states that natural selection rapidly eliminates uncompetitive combinations of traits, has proven to be a powerful source of testable hypotheses and predicting patterns in vegetation structure and composition. In this context, Prentice et al. (2014) proposed an optimality framework for plant functional ecology, which predicts relationships between parameters of photosynthetic biochemistry and stomatal conductance (gs). Leaf morphology plays an essential role herein, as shown by the conservative gs/gsmax ratio (McElwain et al., 2016) and the strong correlation between maximum photosynthesis rate and leaf hydraulic traits (Brodribb et al., 2007). The aim of this research is to determine how such leaf morphological adaptations relate to adaptations of photosynthetic traits, mainly  gs/gsmax and Vcmax, over different timescales. Here we present empirical data to test predicted effects of changing CO2 concentrations on Vcmax, Ci/Ca, Jmax, gs, and leaf morphology, according to the optimality framework.

The effects were tested in two genotypes of Solanum dulcamara (bittersweet) that were grown from seeds to maturity under 200, 400 and 800 ppm CO2 in walk-in growth chambers with tight control on light, temperature and humidity. The genotypes were grown from two distinct natural populations; one adapted to well-drained sandy soil (the 'dry' genotype) and one adapted to poorly-drained clayey soil (the 'wet' genotype). Measurements of photosynthetic traits were obtained with a portable photosynthesis system. Morphological and developmental leaf traits were measured on microscopy images, after plant maturation.

The results show that the optimality framework is suitable to predict changes in the photosynthetic traits under changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. With higher concentrations, the Vcmax decreased in both S. dulcamara genotypes. Also, at each CO2 growth level, the dry genotype showed a higher Huber value and a lower Vcmax than the wet genotype, indicating that the ‘dry’ genotype combines a relatively high cost of transpiration with a low cost of photosynthesis, and the ‘wet’ genotype vice versa. The down-regulation of Vcmax under high CO2 was strongest in the dry genotype, and the downregulation of gs the strongest in the wet genotype, in line with the predicted trade-off between the costs of transpiration and photosynthesis.

The two leaf morphological traits with the clearest CO2 response were leaf vein density and guard cell length, which were also strongly correlated. Interestingly, stomatal density showed no CO2 response in this species, but is correlated to the guard cell length. Overall, our empirical data support the optimality responses in photosynthetic traits and gs, however, leaf morphological responses appear less consistent with the theory. More research, including experiments over a longer timescale will provide more insight in these relationships.

How to cite: Odé, A., Rebel, K., van der Ploeg, M., and de Boer, H.: Effects of rising CO2 concentrations on photosynthetic traits and leaf morphology to test optimality framework, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9596, 2022.

EGU22-9863 | Presentations | BG3.8

Plants maximize the conductive efficiency of the xylem 

Oskar Franklin, Peter Fransson, Florian Hofhansl, and Jaideep Joshi

In vast areas of the world, the growth of forests and vegetation is water-limited and plant survival depends on the ability to avoid catastrophic hydraulic failure. Therefore, it is surprising that plants take high hydraulic risks by operating at water potentials (ψ) that induce partial failure of the water conduits (xylem) 1, and which makes them susceptible to drought mortality under climate change 2. Here we present an eco-evolutionary optimality principle for xylem design that explains this phenomenon - xylem is adapted to maximize its effective conductivity. A simple relationship emerges between the xylem intrinsic tolerance to high negative water potential (ψ50) and the environmentally dependent minimum ψ, which explains observed patterns across and within species. The theory provides a fundamental conduit-level principle that complements previously described principles at higher organizational levels, such as hydraulic-network scaling and drought-avoidance behavior. The new optimality principle may be universally valid, from within-individuals to across-species, and thus improve our basic understanding of drought tolerance of plants and forests globally.   

How to cite: Franklin, O., Fransson, P., Hofhansl, F., and Joshi, J.: Plants maximize the conductive efficiency of the xylem, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9863, 2022.

EGU22-9994 | Presentations | BG3.8

Plant-FATE – Predicting the adaptive responses of biodiverse plant communities using functional-trait evolution 

Jaideep Joshi, Iain Colin Prentice, Åke Brännström, Shipra Singh, Florian Hofhansl, and Ulf Dieckmann

We present Plant-FATE, a trait-size-structured vegetation model in which the time evolution of the size distribution of multiple species is modelled using the McKendrick-von Foerster partial differential equation. In our model, trait structure allows for representing any number of functionally distinct species as points in trait space, while size structure allows for modelling competition for light. To account for the stomatal and biochemical responses of leaves to environmental conditions, including CO2 concentration, vapour pressure deficit, and soil moisture, Plant-FATE incorporates ‘P-hydro’, a unified model for stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity [Joshi, J., et al. (2020). Towards a unified theory of plant photosynthesis and hydraulics. bioRxiv 2020.12.17.423132]. To model the resource allocation of plants, Plant-FATE uses an extended version of the ‘T-model’, accounting for crown geometry. In Plant-FATE, the vertical light profile attenuated by the canopy can be (optionally) modelled as a continuous light profile or via the ‘perfect plasticity approximation’ (PPA). Plant-FATE also includes a simple model for the acclimation of the crown leaf area index and an empirically derived model of plant mortality. Here, we present initial results exploring the effect of different trait combinations on the demographics of individual trees and single-species stands. We also analyse the outcomes of pairwise competition between species differing in their traits. Our approach is a step towards developing an eco-evolutionary vegetation model (EEVM) capable of simulating the adaptive responses of biodiverse plant communities to changing environmental conditions.

How to cite: Joshi, J., Prentice, I. C., Brännström, Å., Singh, S., Hofhansl, F., and Dieckmann, U.: Plant-FATE – Predicting the adaptive responses of biodiverse plant communities using functional-trait evolution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9994, 2022.

EGU22-10673 | Presentations | BG3.8

Global patterns of leaf traits based on optimality theory 

Ning Dong, Benjamin Dechant, and Iain Colin Prentice

Plant functional traits are a key component of land vegetation models. We present global maps of specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf nitrogen content (N) by mass and area, derived from optimality principles. Leaf N per unit area (Narea) is proposed to be determined primarily by the amount of leaf tissue (is related to LMA = 1/SLA) and its metabolic activity (is related to  carboxylation capacity at 25˚C, known as Vcmax,25). SLA is predicted via optimality hypothesis that LMA maximizes average net carbon over the life cycle of the leaf, with separate calculations for evergreen and deciduous plant types. Global maps then use a remote sensing-based land cover product to assign fractional coverage of each type. Vcmax,25  is predicted via the coordination hypothesis, which posits that Vcmax under current growth conditions tends towards a value that balances the Rubisco- and electron transport-limited rates of photosynthesis.  Predicted trait values are compared to in-situ observations, showing good agreement for all three traits. Predicted global distributions are further compared with recently developed, data-based global trait maps. This research indicates how an optimality perspective can help to improve our understanding of vegetation functional diversity and ecosystem function, and potentially enhance vegetation models.

How to cite: Dong, N., Dechant, B., and Prentice, I. C.: Global patterns of leaf traits based on optimality theory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10673, 2022.

EGU22-934 | Presentations | NH10.2

Compound Hot-Dry Events in Urban India: Variability and Drivers 

Poulomi Ganguli

The precipitation deficit-temperature feedback can severely impact multiple sectors, such as reduction in crop yield to critical infrastructure failures, especially in low latitude areas (< 30°N). Typically, a heatwave event coincides with a significant decline in surface wind speed due to atmospheric blocking and is often compounded by persistent precipitation-deficit leading to meteorological droughts. Anomalous warm-and-dry air, which comes in torrents, results in an abrupt increase in air temperature that strengthens the local land-atmosphere feedback via soil desiccation. Based on daily meteorological observations covering the 1970-2018 period, first, I show a spatial coherence in the timing of unprecedented hot-dry events over major urban and peri-urban locations of the Indian sub-continent (8°4'N and 37°6'N). Surface wind data confirms a significant decline in low wind speed over most of the locations, especially over the eastern coastal plains of the country. Further, the compound occurrence of extreme temperature and low wind speed act as a preconditioning driver for sequential short (or long)-duration precipitation deficits across most of the sites. A copula-based joint distribution framework incorporating the compounding effect of high temperature, low wind speed, and precipitation deficit reveals a T-year severe hot-dry event tends to become more frequent. Finally, I show a median 6-fold amplifications in compound hot-dry frequency than that of the expected annual number of 50-year temperature extreme. The inferred amplifications are more pronounced in low-lying urban-coastal areas than in the interior locations, where decadal changes in (significant) increase in extreme temperature at several locations are contrasted by a concurrent decrease in surface wind speed.  

How to cite: Ganguli, P.: Compound Hot-Dry Events in Urban India: Variability and Drivers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-934, 2022.

EGU22-1055 | Presentations | NH10.2

Sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation: Spatio-temporal distribution, physical drivers and impacts 

Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Romppainen-Martius

The successive occurrence of extreme precipitation events on sub-seasonal (weekly to monthly) timescales can lead to large precipitation accumulations and severe impacts for humans and ecosystems. We take here a global perspective to explore the spatio-temporal distribution of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation (TCEP) and the physical mechanisms that are responsible for it. We first discuss the seasonal distribution of TCEP and its statistical significance, assessed with Ripley’s K function. Though TCEP is mainly confined to the tropical oceans, it is also significant regionally in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, especially along the eastern margins of ocean basins. We then examine thanks to Generalized Linear Models how large-scale modes of variability and regional dynamics affect the occurrence of temporal clustering across the world. In the tropics, ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the MJO all modulate TCEP frequency, while the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific North American pattern dominate in the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude with an impacts-focused discussion of how TCEP affects river discharge across Europe. TCEP leads to a higher and more prolonged discharge response, especially in pluvial-dominated catchments, and thus to higher flooding risk.

How to cite: Tuel, A., Schaefli, B., Zscheischler, J., and Romppainen-Martius, O.: Sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation: Spatio-temporal distribution, physical drivers and impacts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1055, 2022.

EGU22-1222 | Presentations | NH10.2

Compound flooding due to interaction of waves and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa 

Sunna Kupfer, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Lara van Niekerk, Melanie Lück-Vogel, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis

Recent studies on compound flooding have considered the interaction of storm surge and fluvial or pluvial flood drivers, whereas the contribution of waves to compound flooding has so far been neglected. In this study, we assess compound flooding from waves, tides and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa, using a hydrodynamic model. We estimate the contribution of extreme waves to compound flooding by analysing the driver interactions and by quantifying changes in flood characteristics. We further consider the effect of waves on flood timing and compare results of compound flood scenarios to scenarios in which single drivers are omitted. We find that flood characteristics are more sensitive to river discharge than to waves, particularly when the latter only coincide with high spring tides. When interacting with river discharge, however, the contribution of waves is high, causing larger flood extents and higher water depths. With more extreme waves, flooding can begin up to 12 hours earlier. Our findings provide insights on the magnitude and timing of compound flooding in an open South African estuary and demonstrate the need to account for the effects of waves during compound flooding in future flood impact assessments of similar coastal settings with similar wave climates.

How to cite: Kupfer, S., Santamaria-Aguilar, S., van Niekerk, L., Lück-Vogel, M., and Vafeidis, A. T.: Compound flooding due to interaction of waves and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1222, 2022.

EGU22-1469 | Presentations | NH10.2

Compound high temperature and low net primary production extremes in the ocean over the satellite period 

Natacha Legrix, Jakob Zscheischler, Charlotte Laufkötter, Keith Rodgers, Cecile Rousseaux, Ryohei Yamaguchi, and Thomas Frölicher

Extreme events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs), severely impact marine ecosystems. Of particular concern are compound events, i.e. situations when conditions are extreme for multiple ecosystem stressors, such as temperature and net primary productivity (NPP). In 2013-2015 for example, an extensive MHW, known as the Blob, cooccurred with low NPP and severely impacted marine life in the northeast Pacific, with cascading impacts on fisheries. Yet, little is known about the distribution and drivers of compound MHW and low NPP extreme events. We use satellite-based sea surface temperature and NPP estimates to provide a first assessment of these compound events. We reveal hotspots of compound MHW and low NPP events in the equatorial Pacific, along the boundaries of the subtropical gyres, and in the northern Indian Ocean. In these regions, compound events that typically last one week occur three to seven times more often than expected under the assumption of independence between MHWs and low NPP events. At the seasonal timescale, most compound events occur in summer in both hemispheres. At the interannual time-scale, their frequency is strongly modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, whose positive phase is associated with increased compound event occurrence in the eastern equatorial Pacific by a factor of up to four. Using large ensemble simulations of two Earth system models, we then investigate the exact physical and biological drivers of these compound events. We find that both models suggest that MHWs in the low latitudes are often associated with low surface ocean nutrient concentrations due to enhance stratification and/or reduced upwelling, which limits the growth of phytoplankton resulting in extremely low NPP. However, the models show large disparities in simulated compound events and its drivers in the high latitudes. This identifies an important need for improved process understanding for high latitude compound MHW and low NPP events.

How to cite: Legrix, N., Zscheischler, J., Laufkötter, C., Rodgers, K., Rousseaux, C., Yamaguchi, R., and Frölicher, T.: Compound high temperature and low net primary production extremes in the ocean over the satellite period, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1469, 2022.

EGU22-2325 | Presentations | NH10.2

Guidelines for studying diverse types of compound weather and climate events 

Emanuele Bevacqua, Carlo De Michele, Colin Manning, Anaïs Couasnon, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Alexandre M. Ramos, Edoardo Vignotto, Ana Bastos, Suzana Blesić, Fabrizio Durante, John Hillier, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Elisa Ragno, Pauline Rivoire, Kate Saunders, Karin van der Wiel, Wenyan Wu, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler

Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.

How to cite: Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Ramos, A. M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesić, S., Durante, F., Hillier, J., Oliveira, S. C., Pinto, J. G., Ragno, E., Rivoire, P., Saunders, K., van der Wiel, K., Wu, W., Zhang, T., and Zscheischler, J.: Guidelines for studying diverse types of compound weather and climate events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2325, 2022.

The analysis of climate change impacts involves the utilisation of climate model output. Quite often, quantities of interest are compound events rather than “raw variables” such as temperature. Questions such as "what is the probability that temperature will exceed a high threshold for five consecutive days and how will this change in the future?" are quite common. Statistical (probabilistic) modelling of climate model output can be used to answer such questions by stochastically simulating the raw variables and then quantifying the compound events as a “by-product”. This is particularly useful since any compound event can be investigated using the same approach – since the raw variables are the ones being modelled.

Such approaches however do not always scale well with big data sets and are often too complicated to even interpret appropriately. Here we present a way of analysing such data, using the (well-established) idea of a ‘moving window’ in conjunction with penalised smoothing splines and Generalised Additive Models (GAMs). The probabilistic nature of the resulting predictions provides a way of extrapolating beyond the range of the original data to robustly quantify the likelihood of rare events and their future changes. The approach is implemented in the Bayesian framework which results in full quantification of the associated uncertainty in using this method, e.g. increased uncertainty for extreme events way outside the range of the original data.

The method is both scalable and paralleliseable and we present it in quantifying changes in regional climate model output. Due to the simplicity of the components that make up the approach, it can be argued that it is highly interpretable as well as robust to the choice of variables – we demonstrate this using temperature as well as humidity and precipitation, variables which are known to have very different statistical behaviour. We also demonstrate how the approach can be extended to capture the behaviour of more that one variable and use it to quantify the changes in compound hazard events such as the frequency of “warm-dry” days.

How to cite: Economou, T. and Garry, F.: Probabilistic modelling and simulation of big spatio-temporal climate data for quantifying future changes of compound events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3392, 2022.

Many climate-related disasters often result from a combination of several climate drivers, also referred to as "compound events''. By interacting with each other, these hazards can lead to huge environmental and societal impacts, at a scale potentially far greater than any of these climate drivers could have caused separately. Marginal and dependence properties of climate drivers, as well as their changes over time, are key statistical properties influencing the probabilities of compound events. A better understanding of how the statistical properties of variables leading to compound events evolve and contribute to the change of their occurences is a crucial step towards risk assessments. Here, based on copula theory, we develop a new methodology to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties to the overall probability of compound events. For illustration purposes, the methodology is applied to analyse changes of probability for compound precipitation and wind extremes, and their potential time of emergence, in a 13-member multi-model ensemble (CMIP6) over the region of Brittany (France). Results show that compound precipitation and wind extremes probabilities from CMIP6 ensembles mostly increase for the end of the 21st century. Yet, the contribution of marginal and dependence properties to these changes of probabilities can be very different from one model to another, reflecting a large uncertainty in climate modelling. These results highlight the importance of both marginal and dependence properties changes for future risk assessments due to compound events, and the need to understand the differences' sources of statistical properties between climate models.  

How to cite: François, B. and Vrac, M.: Emergence of compound events: quantifying the importance of marginal and dependence properties changes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3843, 2022.

EGU22-3877 | Presentations | NH10.2

Compound drought and heatwave identification: daily-scale independent extreme events based on 120-year observations 

Baoying Shan, Bernard De Baets, and Niko Verhoest

Under the challenge of climate change, the extremes, especially for extreme temperature, are observed at an increasing pace and are expected to be more severe in the future. It is critical to study heatwaves concurrently with droughts because of the intensification of negative impacts, such as exacerbating water shortage, crop failure and GPP reduction, wildfire and tree mortality, etc. This research focuses on compound events of droughts and heatwaves and presents a framework for the identification of drought or heatwave events and their compounds.

While most studies only look at the summer season, we also consider compound drought and heatwave events in the winter season, as these are also important in view of their significant influence on wildfires, insect outbreaks, seed germination, etc.

We introduce the notion of "relative heatwave" as being an extreme event compared with the average of the previous 30-year temperatures for that period. Drought and heatwave events are then identified based on SPI (standardized precipitation index) and SHI (standardized heatwave index). To overcome limitations arising from the scale inconsistency (monthly drought with daily heatwave) and coarse resolution (monthly or weekly drought), we apply the daily SPI and daily SHI, bringing a more accurate measure of the start and end dates, and severity. We also propose an objective, convenient and robust method to identify the statistically extreme and independent drought and heatwave events. Thresholds for removing small-scale events and merging proximate events are found by assuming the severity of the events to follow a generalized extreme value distribution and their arrivals to follow a Poisson process. Finally, we introduce four possible ways of identifying compound events (union, conditioned on drought, conditioned on heatwave, and intersection).

To demonstrate our methodology, we made use of 120 years of daily precipitation and daily average temperature observed at the Belgian meteorological institute in Uccle, near Brussels.

How to cite: Shan, B., De Baets, B., and Verhoest, N.: Compound drought and heatwave identification: daily-scale independent extreme events based on 120-year observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3877, 2022.

EGU22-4371 | Presentations | NH10.2

Enhanced impacts of compound precipitation and wind extremes on residential buildings 

Jens Grieger and Uwe Ulbrich

While it is known that severe winter wind storms are related with strong impacts, this study investigates the enhanced impact of compound precipitation and wind extremes. Therefore, we analyse the co-occurrence of extreme wind and precipitation using ERA5 reanalysis data for the European winter season. Co-occurring events are defined by simultaneous threshold exceedance of daily wind speed and precipitation in same or neighbouring areas.

For the quantification of impacts, we are using daily insurance records of damages for residential buildings over Germany provided by the German Insurance Association (GDV). Using the definition of co-occurring extremes, those damage records can be grouped into compound and non-compound events. Analysing insurance loss data between 1997-2016 allows comparisons of the distribution of both groups. There are much more events in the non-compound group. On the other hand, the distribution of the compound group is shifted towards higher damages with an increased median of a factor of ten.

How to cite: Grieger, J. and Ulbrich, U.: Enhanced impacts of compound precipitation and wind extremes on residential buildings, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4371, 2022.

EGU22-4388 | Presentations | NH10.2

Linking statistical, hydrodynamic and machine learning models for assessment of compound floods 

Agnieszka Indiana Olbert, Stephen Nash, Joanne Comer, and Michael Hartnett

Many large population centres are located along estuaries where freshwater flows merge with tidally-driven sea water. In these intertidal zones the river water levels are directly affected by the upstream flow and the downstream coastal conditions. Naturally, such coastal zones can be vulnerable to flood events both from a single driver or several drivers acting in a combination. The compound coastal floods levels may generate extreme impacts even if hazards from individual drivers in isolation would be unlikely. Moreover, the complexity of compound flooding is exacerbated by the presence of interactions (e.g. tide and surge) or dependencies between drivers (e.g. river discharge and surge). To fully understand the multi-driver flood dynamics, the multiple drivers and their impacts need to be assessed in an integrated manner.

In this study the statistical and hydrodynamic models are linked to determine probabilities of multiple-driver flood events and associated risks. Cork City on the south coast of Ireland, frequently subject to complex coastal-fluvial flooding is used as a study case.  The research shows that in Cork Harbour and estuary, the tide-surge interactions have a damping effect on the total water level while dependencies between the surge residual and river flow amplify the risk of flooding. The study also shows that for the most accurate assessment of flood hazard, these phenomena need to be accounted for in the joint probability analysis. From a range of uni- and multivariate scenarios, the multivariate joint exceedance probability AND scenario that includes dependence between multiple drivers represents the most realistic representation of flood probabilities. The outputs from the statistical analysis were used to force the hydrodynamic model of Cork City floodplains. The MNS_Flood model was found to be a robust tool for mapping coastal flood hazards in tidally active river channels. Ultimately, the model results were used to build a machine-learning-based flood forecasting tool. A range of machine learning algorithms were tested to explore relationships between the flood drivers and the resulting spatially variable inundation patterns.

The information derived from the integrated statistical, hydrodynamic and machine learning tools can provide a significant support for short-term early-warning applications as well as for the long-term flood management.

How to cite: Olbert, A. I., Nash, S., Comer, J., and Hartnett, M.: Linking statistical, hydrodynamic and machine learning models for assessment of compound floods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4388, 2022.

EGU22-4727 | Presentations | NH10.2

Quantifying the relationship between flood and wind damage over North-West Europe, in a present and future climate 

Hannah Bloomfield, Paul Bates, Len Shaffrey, John Hillier, Rachel James, and Francesca Pianosi

Strong winds and extremes in precipitation are capable of producing devastating socio-economic impacts across Europe. Although it is well known that individually these drivers cause billions of Euros of damage, their combined impacts are less well understood. Previous work has typically either focused on daily or seasonal timescales, demonstrating that compound wind and precipitation events are commonly associated with passing cyclones or particularly wet and windy years respectively. This study systematically investigates the relationships between national wind and flood damage metrics at all timescales ranging from daily to seasonal during the winter season. This work is completed using high resolution meteorological reanalysis and river flow datasets to explore the historical period (1980-present). As well as this, data from the UKCP18 climate projections at 2.2km and 12km resolution is used to understand historical sampling uncertainty, and the possible impacts of future climate change.

The correlation between national aggregate wind gusts and precipitation peaks at ~10 days; whereas, the correlation between national aggregate wind gusts and river flows peaks at ~3 weeks. When using more impact focussed metrics of compound wind and flood events, such as storm severity and flooding indices, the strongest correlations are seen at seasonal timescales. Results show the historical correlation between wind and flood damage becomes weaker as the definition of the metrics become more impact focussed, and this is true across all timescales from daily to seasonal. This change in relationship is of key importance to the insurance industry who require actionable information based on both the meteorological hazards and on the exposure of their portfolios. The work is designed to support climate analytics for financial institutions, as part of the UK Centre for Greening Finance and Investments (UKCGFI). Results incorporating the impacts of climate change on compound wind and flood events will also be discussed.

How to cite: Bloomfield, H., Bates, P., Shaffrey, L., Hillier, J., James, R., and Pianosi, F.: Quantifying the relationship between flood and wind damage over North-West Europe, in a present and future climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4727, 2022.

EGU22-4916 | Presentations | NH10.2

Global Assessment of Compound Risk of High Temperature and Low Streamflow 

Rihui An, Pan Liu, and Xiaogang He

In river flowing areas, the co-occurrence of high temperature and low streamflow may cause compound hydrologic hot-dry events (CHHDEs). When thermal and hydrological extremes interact, the impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Evidence shows that CHHDEs have severe socio-economic effects, such as increasing pollutant concentration, endangering aquatic species, and reducing power generation. Despite the importance, large-scale risk quantification of CHHDEs remains rarely studied due to the lack of enough simulated data at the global scale.

Therefore, the objectives of this study are threefold: (1) developing the first global hydrologic hot-dry event dataset from 1901 to 2014 (containing four attributes: duration, intensity, severity, and magnitude) based on a state-of-the-art physically-based Tightly Coupled framework for Hydrology of Open water Interactions in River–lake network (TCHOIR) model, which dynamically simulates thermal and hydrological regimes; (2) developing a robust statistical framework to conduct attribution analysis to identify drivers of compound risk (distinguishing high temperature-driven, low streamflow-driven, and dependence-driven); (3) quantifying the impact of river order and hydrologic belt on compound risk to pinpoint CHHDEs hotspots.

CHHDEs have multi-sectoral impacts, including water availability, food security, and energy production. The compound risk analysis provides crucial insights to maintain regional resilience and guide adaptation strategies.

How to cite: An, R., Liu, P., and He, X.: Global Assessment of Compound Risk of High Temperature and Low Streamflow, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4916, 2022.

EGU22-5346 | Presentations | NH10.2

Dependence of lightning occurrence in Europe on large-scale flow patterns 

Homa Ghasemifard, Pieter Groenemeijer, Francesco Battaglioli, and Tomas Pucik

There is ample evidence that the occurrence of deep convection changes as a result of global warming and that, across Europe, increases in convective instability as measured by CAPE are an important driver in many regions. This study is a first step in disentangling the role that climate change induced changes in flow pattern occurrence plays on the evolution of the frequency of thunderstorms. Here we evaluate the association between large-scale flow patterns with the (temporal and spatial) distribution of lightning in Europe as detected by the Met Office Arrival Time Difference Network (ATDnet). The seasonal cycle shows that the largest number of lightning days occurs in the summer from May to August, the period we, therefore, focus on. The large-scale flow pattern is expressed using the daily mean 500 hPa geopotential extracted from ERA5 reanalysis data. A hierarchical clustering algorithm (Ward's method) is applied to the daily mean geopotential heights in the selected four-month period between 2007 and 2019. The algorithm produces 9 patterns (Fig. 1), with cluster 1 being the most frequent, occurring around 20% of the time and pattern 3 being the least frequent, occurring around 4% of the time. The distributions of lightning associated with the clusters show that lightning often occurs in synoptically quiescent conditions or even underneath a ridge. Furthermore, lightning occurrence over western Europe seems to be more dependent on the synoptic situation, where it is strongly associated with clusters that have a southerly flow at 500 hPa, compared to lightning over the Alpine range or south-eastern Europe.

 

Fig. 1: Large-scale flow patterns are shown in nine clusters, geopotential heights of ERA5 at 500 hPa are plotted in the foreground with 50hPa intervals, and the mean number of lightning strikes per day is shown as filled contours.

How to cite: Ghasemifard, H., Groenemeijer, P., Battaglioli, F., and Pucik, T.: Dependence of lightning occurrence in Europe on large-scale flow patterns, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5346, 2022.

EGU22-5455 | Presentations | NH10.2

Strong increase of probability of Northwestern European multi-year droughts in a warmer climate 

Karin van der Wiel, Thomas Batelaan, and Niko Wanders

Three consecutive dry summers in western Europe (2018-2019-2020) had widespread negative impacts on society and ecosystems, and started societal debate on (changing) drought vulnerability and needs to revise adaptation measures. To facilitate that discussion, we investigate multi-year droughts in the Rhine basin, with a focus on event probability in the present climate and in future warmer climates. Additionally, we studied the temporally compounding physical processes leading to multi-year drought events. A combination of multiple reanalysis datasets and multi-model large ensemble climate model simulations was used to robustly analyse the statistics and physical processes of these rare events. In these data, we identify two types of multi-year drought events (consecutive meteorological summer droughts and long-duration hydrological droughts), and show that these occur on average about twice in a 30 year period in the present climate, though natural variability is large (zero to five events in a single 30 year period). Projected decreases in summer precipitation and increases in atmospheric evaporative demand, lead to a doubling of event probability in a world 1 °C warmer than present and an increase in the average length of events. Consecutive meteorological summer droughts are forced by two, seemingly independent, summers of lower than normal precipitation and higher than normal evaporative demand. The soil moisture response to this temporally compound meteorological forcing has a clear multi-year imprint, resulting in a relatively larger reduction of soil moisture content in the second summer and potentially more severe drought impacts. Long-duration hydrological droughts start with a severe summer drought followed by lingering meteorologically dry conditions. This limits and slows down the recovery of soil moisture content to normal levels, leading to long-lasting drought conditions. This initial exploration provides avenues for further investigation of multi-year drought hazard and vulnerability in the region, which is advised given the projected trends and vulnerability of society and ecosystems.

How to cite: van der Wiel, K., Batelaan, T., and Wanders, N.: Strong increase of probability of Northwestern European multi-year droughts in a warmer climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5455, 2022.

EGU22-5659 | Presentations | NH10.2 | Highlight

Temporal compound events: Are they represented in catastrophe models? 

Stephanie Hodsman

Temporal compound events are defined in recent literature as successive events which impact the same geographical region. These kinds of events have the ability to cause catastrophic impacts. If we treat them as single events in a catastrophe model, the overall event magnitude, impact, and subsequent losses would be underestimated. The United Kingdom is vulnerable to temporally-compounding events due to low-pressure systems from the north Atlantic Ocean: the storms Desmond, Eva, Frank that occurred in December 2015 and Ciara, Dennis, Jorge that occurred in February 2020 are some recent, notable temporally compounding events that caused large economic losses.

 

For insurers and reinsurers to appropriately manage their exposure, it is imperative the tools they use truthfully reflect the risk of an insured asset being inundated several times due to temporal compound events. It has been recognised in previous research that catastrophe models are limited in their ability to handle connected, multi-hazard events. In addition, the risk of loss from temporal compound events should be demonstrated accordingly as the loss from a second event may not be as severe as the initial impact. Therefore, the definition of an event within a catastrophe model’s event set is extremely important. This provided the motivation to review temporal compound event representation in JBA Risk Management’s stochastic event set.

 

We manipulated various versions of stochastic event sets for known historical temporal compound events, and we explored how these different event sets alter the losses from catastrophe models. This research allowed us to interpret the impact various modelling strategies would have on (re)insurance companies should similar events occur in the future and provided further questions on how is best to model natural catastrophes.

 

How to cite: Hodsman, S.: Temporal compound events: Are they represented in catastrophe models?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5659, 2022.

EGU22-5662 | Presentations | NH10.2

Hotspots of Changes in Exposure to Multivariate Extremes at Different Global Warming Levels 

Fulden Batibeniz, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne

It is now certain that human-induced climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of climate and weather extremes globally. While a number of studies investigated these characteristics of individual extremes, an IPCC risk framework-like holistic approach introducing the potential impacts of the changes in concurrent and multivariate extremes is more informative. By using CMIP6 climate projections, historical and future population estimates we assess the influence of human and climate change on four concurrent extreme events (heatwave–drought, warm nights–high relative humidity, extreme 1-day precipitation–wind, drought–warm days-low relative humidity) in the preindustrial period (1850-1900) and at four global warming levels (GWLs from +1 °C to +3 °C). Our results show that concurrent occurrences of the investigated extremes become 1.2 to 8 times more frequent for the 3ºC GWL. The most dramatic increase is identified for compound heatwave–drought events, with an eight-fold increase in subtropical countries, a seven-fold increase in northern middle and high latitude countries, and a five-fold increase in tropical countries, respectively. Additionally, the number of events per capita showing the contribution of climate change alone exhibits a dramatic increase in compound heatwave–drought and warm days–low relative humidity-drought events over the Mediterranean countries, Europe, China, Australia, Russia, the United States, and the Northern part of South America, emphasizing the potential risk increase in the case of lack of concerted effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

How to cite: Batibeniz, F., Hauser, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Hotspots of Changes in Exposure to Multivariate Extremes at Different Global Warming Levels, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5662, 2022.

EGU22-6089 | Presentations | NH10.2

Sea Level Rise Impact on Compound Coastal-river Flood Risk in Klaipeda city (Baltic coast, Lithuania) 

Erika Čepienė, Lina Dailidytė, Edvinas Stonevičius, and Inga Dailidienė

Due to climate change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the 21st century in Europe. As a result, flood risk and flood related losses might increase. It is therefore essential to simulate potential floods not only relying on the historical but also include future projecting data. Such simulations can give necessary information for development of flood protection measures and spatial planning. This paper analyzes the risk of compound flooding in the Dane River under different river discharge and Klaipeda Strait water level probabilities. Additionally, we examined how water level rise of 1 meter in the Klaipeda Strait could impacts Dane River floods in Klaipeda City. Flood extent was estimated with Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and visualized with ArcGIS Pro. Research results show that the rise of the water level in the Klaipeda Strait has a greater impact on the Central part of Klaipeda City, while the maximum discharge rates of the river—on the Northern upstream part of the analyzed river section. Sea level rise of 1 m could lead to the increase of area affected by Dane floods up to three times. Floods can cause significant damage to the infrastructure of Klaipeda Port City, urbanized territories in the City Center and residential areas in the Northern part of the City. Our results confirm that, in the long run, sea level rise will significantly impact the urban areas of the Klaipeda City situated to Baltic Sea coast.

How to cite: Čepienė, E., Dailidytė, L., Stonevičius, E., and Dailidienė, I.: Sea Level Rise Impact on Compound Coastal-river Flood Risk in Klaipeda city (Baltic coast, Lithuania), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6089, 2022.

EGU22-6351 | Presentations | NH10.2

Compounding Wet and Cold-Extremes driven by an increasing Pan-Atlantic wave-4-pattern 

Kai Kornhuber and Gabriele Messori

Wintertime extremes such as cold spells and heavy precipitation events can have severe societal impacts, disrupting critical infrastructures, traffc and affecting human well-being. Here, we relate the occurrence of local and concurrent cold and wet wintertime extremes in North America and Western Europe to a recurrent, quasi-hemispheric wave-4 Rossby wave pattern in the Jetstream. We identify this pattern as a fundamental mode of Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter circulation exhibiting phase-locking behavior as the associated atmospheric circulation and surface anomalies re-occur over the same locations when the pattern's wave amplitude is high. The wave pattern is strongest over the pan-Atlantic region, and is associated with an increased probability of extreme cold or wet events by up to 300 % in certain areas of North America and Western Europe. We identify a significant increase in frequency over the past four decades (1979- 2021), which we hypothesise may derive from increased convective activity in the tropical Pacific, from where the pattern originates, while a weakened meridional temperature gradient linked to Arctic warming appears to have no direct effect on its occurrence. The identified pattern and its remote forcing might provide pathways for early prediction of local and concurrent cold or wet wintertime extremes in North America and Western Europe.

How to cite: Kornhuber, K. and Messori, G.: Compounding Wet and Cold-Extremes driven by an increasing Pan-Atlantic wave-4-pattern, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6351, 2022.

EGU22-7281 | Presentations | NH10.2

Changes in likelihood and intensity of spatially co-occurring hot, dry and wet extremes 

Bianca Biess, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

The recent 2021 spring-to-summer season was characterized by co-occurrent hot, dry and extremely wet extremes around the globe, raising questions regarding changing likelihoods of such extreme years in a changing climate. To address this question, we assess the likelihood of spatially compounding hot, dry and wet extremes under historic and present climate as well as under different future warming levels. The occurrence-probability of spatially compounding events and area affected in future climates under scenarios at 1.5°C, 2°C and higher levels of global warming is determined using Earth System model simulations from the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). As climate change impacts are particularly severe when spatially compounding events occur in multiple regions with high exposure of people or crops, this study focuses on densely inhabited regions and important agricultural areas. 

How to cite: Biess, B., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Changes in likelihood and intensity of spatially co-occurring hot, dry and wet extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7281, 2022.

EGU22-7289 | Presentations | NH10.2

Advancing compound modelling of tropical cyclone wind, surge and rain impacts – now and in a changing climate 

Simona Meiler, Ali Sarhadi, Kerry Emanuel, and David N. Bresch

Intense precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs), typically accompanied by wind-driven storm surges and highly destructive winds, constitutes a significant threat for compound flooding and wind-driven impacts in many coastal regions worldwide. However, most present TC risk assessment methods only consider wind as the driving hazard and thus underestimate impacts emerging from compounding TC sub-hazards. Further, it is crucial to understand how this risk will shift and intensify in a warming climate. We thus present a coupled, physics-based modeling approach for the coastal area of Metropolitan Manila (PHL) to explicitly represent TC rainfall-induced freshwater flood, TC wind-driven storm surges, and direct impacts from TC wind for present and future climate. We use a large set of synthetic TCs generated from historical climate data (1985-2014) and from the late 21st century (2071-2100) SSP585 warming scenario to simulate TC wind fields and rainfall intensity data. Our modelling chain includes a hydrodynamical component to convert TC precipitation to freshwater flood and model wind-driven storm surges. We evaluate the compound socio-economic impacts from the TC sub-hazards using a state-of-the-art, open-source probabilistic damage model (CLIMADA). Ultimately, our advances in TC impact modelling can be applied in vulnerable coastal regions worldwide, enabling better-informed adaptation decisions and mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Meiler, S., Sarhadi, A., Emanuel, K., and Bresch, D. N.: Advancing compound modelling of tropical cyclone wind, surge and rain impacts – now and in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7289, 2022.

EGU22-7426 | Presentations | NH10.2

Investigating compound flooding in Como 

Fabiola Banfi and Carlo De Michele

Compound events are extreme events whose impact is enhanced by the synergy, in time and/or space, of multiple variables. An example of this typology of events is provided by compound flooding. In this case, the resulting flooded area is increased by several factors, combining together; for example, the contemporaneous occurrence of high sea level and heavy precipitation (multivariate event), the presence of high soil saturation prior to rainfall events (preconditioned event), a precipitation event affecting several basins (spatially compounding event), or a succession of precipitation events (temporally compounding event). In this respect, we have adopted a compound analysis to study a series of floods that affected the town of Como (Northern Italy). Indeed, the town experiences recurrent damages due to the flooding of the nearby lake. In particular, we collected and analyzed 53 flood events, covering the period 1981-2020, in order to gain a better and more in-depth understanding of the phenomenon. This may eventually have important implications for the prediction and risk reduction of compound flooding.

How to cite: Banfi, F. and De Michele, C.: Investigating compound flooding in Como, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7426, 2022.

EGU22-7724 | Presentations | NH10.2

Integrating responsiveness in the identification and characterization of compound heavy rainfall and wave storms events 

Jose A. Jiménez, Jose Costa, Maribel Ortego, and Maria del Carmen Llasat

From a risk management perspective, the relevance of compound events lies in the fact that they can significantly increase the intensity and/or the spatial and temporal extension of the impact (and damage) due to the synergic and/or cumulative action of different hazards. This compounding effect may overwhelm the capability of emergency-response services since these have to tackle an “unusual” high-damaging situation, they have to respond to a large number of emergency situations throughout the region at the same time, and/or they have to maintain the level of response during a relatively long period. Due to this, from this perspective, it would be important to incorporate the emergency/recovery services responsiveness to identify these events, as well as to evaluate their probability of occurrence. In this work we investigate this by parameterising this response as a time window between individual extreme events (rainfall and waves) to define the presence of a compound event. This time window depends on the intrinsic capacity of response of the available services, but also on the magnitude of contributing events as well as their spatial scale. In this work we analyse the variation of the probability of occurrence of compound heavy rainfall and wave storms events along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) as a function of the responsiveness.

This work was supported by the Spanish Agency of Research in the framework of the C3RiskMed (PID2020-113638RB-C21/ AEI /  10.13039/501100011033)

How to cite: Jiménez, J. A., Costa, J., Ortego, M., and Llasat, M. C.: Integrating responsiveness in the identification and characterization of compound heavy rainfall and wave storms events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7724, 2022.

EGU22-7784 | Presentations | NH10.2 | Arne Richter Award for Outstanding ECS Lecture

The emergence of compound event analysis as a new research frontier 

Jakob Zscheischler

Over recent years, research on compound weather and climate event has emerged as a new research frontier at the interface of climate science, climate impact research, engineering and statistics. Compound weather and climate events refer to the combination of multiple drivers and/or hazards that contribute to environmental or societal risk. Compound event analysis combines traditional research on climate extremes with impact-focused bottom-up assessments, thereby providing new insights on present-day and future climate risk. In this talk, I will illustrate my own trajectory into compound event analysis and highlight current and future challenges in this novel and exciting field of research. 

How to cite: Zscheischler, J.: The emergence of compound event analysis as a new research frontier, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7784, 2022.

EGU22-8014 | Presentations | NH10.2

Interactions between compound extreme events and technological change over rice yield in China as an opportunity to adapt. 

Sonia Quiroga, Cristina Suárez, Haoran Wang, and Virginia Hernanz

Global climate change and more frequent and severe compound events poses a threat to agricultural productivity in China with important impacts on human development, and social stability. China has 18% about 25% of the world's grain production--accounting rice up to 34% of it.  Much of the existing research has focused on the important average effects of climate warming on rice yields showing. However, there is evidence about nonlinear interactions when compound events being present (ie. frost and heavy rainfall). As some of the major natural disasters in China at present, the overall spatial extent of drought and floods in China are expected to change significantly in the future, with more extreme events resulting. This paper analyzes total factor productivity growth in China's rice production to compute technological progress as an adaptative factor for total factor productivity growth response to compound extreme events. Labor inputs, education, fertilizer application and energy use are considered as control factors, jointly with socio-economic factors the the adoption of agricultural technology by growers. The Levinsohn-Petrin consistent semi-parametric estimation method was used to empirically analyze input-output panel data on rice yields in 30 Chinese provinces from 1990 to 2019 and to simulate the level of rice yield at the end of the 21st century under different RCPs scenarios. The model has stronger prediction ability for the central-eastern and southern production areas of China and reveals that rice yields may show opportunities of increase under average conditions for some climate scenarios, but it shows a bigger risk and vulnerability to compound extreme events.

 

How to cite: Quiroga, S., Suárez, C., Wang, H., and Hernanz, V.: Interactions between compound extreme events and technological change over rice yield in China as an opportunity to adapt., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8014, 2022.

EGU22-9715 | Presentations | NH10.2

Differences between lowlands and highlands in terms of compound wind-precipitation events 

Miloslav Müller, Marek Kašpar, and Milada Křížová

Extreme precipitation events are associated with cyclones, atmospheric fronts or convective storms which produce high winds as well. This fact increases the probability of compound wind-precipitation events. Such events can cause even more damage than single precipitation and wind events because, for example, soil moisture makes trees less stable. The joint effect is even more significant in case of solid precipitation due to snow accumulations on trees. However, as the orographic precipitation enhancement increases mainly cold-season precipitation totals in highlands, the altitude makes the difference in the seasonal distribution of precipitation in Czechia. Thus, the local lowlands and highlands also partly differ in terms of the frequency of compound wind-precipitation events. We present this fact on data series of maximum daily wind gusts, daily precipitation totals and inter-diurnal increases in show depth from the period 1961 – 2020 at selected Czech weather stations, located in various altitudes. Extreme events are defined by the method of percentiles; frequencies of compound events are evaluated in comparison to the stochastic frequencies.

How to cite: Müller, M., Kašpar, M., and Křížová, M.: Differences between lowlands and highlands in terms of compound wind-precipitation events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9715, 2022.

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a hotspot of climate change characterized by a large tree mortality. Especially holm (Quercus ilex L.) and cork oak trees (Quercus suber L.) in high-value and nature-based agroforestry systems (in Spain known as dehesa) have multiple positive effects, e.g., on the microclimate, carbon storage, erosion prevention, increase of soil water content and soil nutrient concentration. Many studies dealing with the oak decline (also called seca) reported the infestation by root pathogens, in particular the soil-born pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi, as the main driver. However, rapidly, the focus shifted to the interaction of the pathogen and single abiotic conditions like drought.

We assume that compound events (co-occurring warm spells and soil drought) have a larger correlation with vegetation indices than single climatic drivers. We analyse time series of two vegetation indices, namely the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) as an indicator for greenness and vitality. In particular, we focus on the trend of both indices over about two decades (2003-2021) in eight different plots in our study area, on a dehesa in Huelva province, Andalusia. Subsequently, we correlate them with the decomposed signal of compound events.

Based on precipitation and temperature data, we calculated two drought indices, namely the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). We then used these indices together with temperature to calculate so-called compound events, a co-occurrence of extreme values in multiple environmental drivers. To assess the status of the vegetation, we calculated the NDVI and its newly proposed kernel variant kNDVI from MODIS (MYD13Q1) and Landsat (4-5, 7,8) data in eight different plots in our study area. The kNDVI is a non-linear generalization of the NDVI and showed good behaviour in the Mediterranean and correlates stronger with the gross primary productivity (GPP) than the original NDVI. To extract physically meaningful information, we decomposed the time series signals with the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) method by Torres et al. (2011) into seasonality, trend, and a remainder part. CEEMDAN is suitable for non-linear and non-stationary time series. To analyse the relationships between vegetation indices and possible climatic drivers, we subsequently calculate lagged cross-correlations (i.e., correlation between different time series) between the Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) of the signal expressing the trend and different seasonalities.

We extracted different positive and significant (p < 0.01) NDVI trend signals from the MODIS time series. The seasonal component corresponded to the expected annual cycle. Based on these first results, we will correlate the NDVI and kNDVI trend signals with the calculated compound events to observe their role in the oak tree mortality.

How to cite: Reddig, F., Bareth, G., and Bogner, C.: Effect of compound events on oak tree vitality in a climate change hotspot: analysis of time series in a traditional Spanish dehesa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9852, 2022.

EGU22-10342 | Presentations | NH10.2

Climate extremes in Mediterranean metropolitan cities and atmospheric variability 

Iliana Polychroni, Maria Hatzaki, Panagiotis T. Nastos, John Kouroutzoglou, and Helena A. Flocas

The Mediterranean region is an area of increasing interest due to its unique climate. Nowadays, climate change has already evident consequences, such as the rise of extreme weather events, which significantly affect peoples’ life in the highly populated urban areas of the Mediterranean. Thus, in this study, ten metropolitan cities from the wider Mediterranean region with different climatic characteristics have been selected to study the frequency and the multidecadal trends of extreme events, as well as their possible connection with the large scale and synoptic scale atmospheric variability.

Four combined extreme indices have been evaluated on annual and seasonal basis for the period 1950-2018 using the high-resolution E-OBS gridded daily mean temperature and precipitation datasets (0.1° x 0.1°; v.19e) from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D, Klein Tank et al. 2002, www.ecad.eu). These combined extreme indices refer to the joint modes of temperature and precipitation extremes, concerning the co-occurrence of Cold/Dry days (CD), Cold/Wet days (CW), Warm/Dry days (WD), Warm/Wet days (WW), which can reflect extreme conditions better than temperature or precipitation statistics considered separately (Beniston, 2009; 2011). The links of the extreme events with the atmospheric variability are investigated based on large-scale teleconnection indices and spatiotemporal distribution of cyclonic activity. Toward this, the comprehensive climatology of Mediterranean cyclones assembled was used by applying a cyclone tracking algorithm (Murray and Simmonds, 1991; Flocas et al., 2011) with respect to the ECMWF ERA5 Interim mean sea level pressure fields since 1950.

The findings of the analysis showed distinct temporal and spatial variations of the combined extremes occurrences in the cities across the Mediterranean, which can be attributed to the effects of its complex topography, as well as to the non-uniform influence of the atmospheric variability. Specifically, the CD and WD indices have higher annual occurrences than the CW and WW, which indicates that the wider Mediterranean region experiences more dry days, either cold or warm, than wet days. The urban areas most affected by cold/dry events are located on the western Africa, while almost all urban areas around the Mediterranean coast are impacted by higher number of warm/dry events, with increasing trends.

References: Beniston M., 2009, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07707; Beniston M., and Coauthors, 2011, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1257-1263; Murray and Simmonds, 1991 Aust Met Mag 39 155 166; Flocas et al., 2010, J Climate, 23(19), 5243-5257

How to cite: Polychroni, I., Hatzaki, M., Nastos, P. T., Kouroutzoglou, J., and Flocas, H. A.: Climate extremes in Mediterranean metropolitan cities and atmospheric variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10342, 2022.

EGU22-10344 | Presentations | NH10.2

Role of climatic oscillations in causing spatially and temporally compound droughts and heatwaves 

Waqar ulhassan and Munir Ahmad Nayak

Compound drought and heatwaves (CDHWs) often cause severe ecological and socioeconomic damages; however, these impacts amplify when such temporally compound events occur concurrently in distant regions. Although spatially concurrent univariate extremes (e.g., droughts) have been explored globally and usually linked to large-scale climatic oscillations, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming, spatial co-occurrence of CDHWs remains understudied. Here, we present a novel methodology to identify regions that have higher-than-expected chances of experiencing CDHWs concurrently. Using daily precipitation and temperature data from Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and ERA5, we find robust spatially concurrent CDHWs in multiple regions that are thousands of kilometres apart, revealing teleconnections in CDHWs. Composite anomalies of geopotential heights and sea surface temperatures reveal El-Niño as the major cause of teleconnections in CDHWs in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Height anomalies during extra-tropical teleconnections reveal quasi-stationary Rossby waves that often produce persistent atmospheric blockings over climacteric locations in vicinity of compound regions. The insights gained here offer new avenues in studying spatially and temporally concurrent hydrologic extremes.

How to cite: ulhassan, W. and Nayak, M. A.: Role of climatic oscillations in causing spatially and temporally compound droughts and heatwaves, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10344, 2022.

EGU22-11062 | Presentations | NH10.2

The precautionary principles of the potential risks of compound events in Danish municipalities 

Luise-Ch. Modrakowski, Jian Su, and Anne Bach Nielsen

The risk of compound events is defined as probable weather and climate events where many factors and dangers combine to cause catastrophic socio-economic repercussions. Compound events affecting vulnerable societies are thus a major security risk. Compound events are rarely documented, making preparedness difficult. This study examines how climate risk management is perceived and practiced in flood-prone Danish municipalities (i.e., Odense, Hvidovre, and Vejle). These practices reveal how different understandings of compound events influence risk perceptions and, thus, policy decisions. We discovered through expert interviews and policy documents that specific Danish municipalities recognize compound events as a condition or situation and develop precautionary principles. Depending on their location, they see compound events as either a vague tendency (Odense), a trend to be monitored (Hvidovre), or a partial reality (Vejle). They see flood drivers and their combinations as serious physical hazards to which they adapt. By focusing on local governance systems, it revealed the need to critically assess the mismatch between responsibility and capability, as well as the ongoing fragmentation of services related to climate concerns in Danish municipalities. The findings show that one discipline cannot address the complicated challenge of compound events. The report recommends expanding scientific techniques and increasing local focus in compound event research to stimulate creative thinking, better planning, and enhanced risk management.

How to cite: Modrakowski, L.-Ch., Su, J., and Nielsen, A. B.: The precautionary principles of the potential risks of compound events in Danish municipalities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11062, 2022.

Compound hazards refer to two or more different natural hazards occurring over the same time period and spatial area. Compound hazards can operate on different spatial and temporal scales than their component single hazards. This work proposes a definition of compound hazards in space and time and presents a methodology for the Spatiotemporal Identification of Compound Hazards (SI–CH). The approach is applied to the analysis of compound precipitation and wind extremes in Great Britain, from which we create a database. Hourly precipitation and wind gust values for 1979–2019 are extracted from climate reanalysis (ERA5) within a region including Great Britain and the British channel. Extreme values (above the 99% quantile) of precipitation and wind gust are clustered with the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm, creating clusters for precipitation and wind gusts. Compound hazard clusters that correspond to the spatial overlap of single hazard clusters during the aggregated duration of the two hazards are then identified. Our ERA5 Hazard Clusters Database consists of 18,086 precipitation clusters, 6190 wind clusters, and 4555 compound hazard clusters. The methodology’s ability to identify extreme precipitation and wind events is assessed with a catalogue of 157 significant events (96 extreme precipitation and 61 extreme wind events) in Great Britain over the period 1979–2019. We find a good agreement between the SI–CH outputs and the catalogue with an overall hit rate (ratio between the number of joint events and the total number of events) of 93.7%. The spatial variation of hazard intensity within wind, precipitation and compound hazard clusters are then visualised and analysed. The study finds that the SI–CH approach can accurately identify single and compound hazard events and represent spatial and temporal properties of these events. We find that compound wind and precipitation extremes, despite occurring on smaller scales than single extremes, can occur on large scales in Great Britain with a decreasing spatial scale when the combined intensity of the hazards increases. 

How to cite: Tilloy, A., Malamud, B., and Joly-Laugel, A.: A Methodology for the Spatiotemporal Identification of Compound Hazards: Wind and Precipitation Extremes in Great Britain (1979–2019), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11194, 2022.

EGU22-11534 | Presentations | NH10.2

Compound events in Germany: drivers and case studies 

Florian Ellsäßer and Elena Xoplaki and the The climXtreme research network on climate change and extreme events

The 2018 compound of hot and dry conditions in Central Europe are unprecedented in magnitude, duration and spatial extent since measurements started in 1881. During spring and summer, these compounding of extreme conditions caused a series of severe impacts on several sectors including agriculture, forestry, transport, energy and water supply. At the beginning of the same year, windstorm Friederike concurrent with heavy snowfall caused severe damages in Ireland, Great Britain, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic and Poland. Friederike reached wind gusts of the order of 100 – 150 km/h, up to 173 km/h at Sněžka in Czech Republic and 203 km/h at Brocken in Germany.

Along the trajectory from large to the local scale, the drivers and dynamics of these events are analyzed and the impacts of the compound events are provided. Exemplary for 2018, the impacts of the compound events comprise traffic disruption, power outages, property damage by e.g., falling trees, and fatalities after the windstorm. Unprecedented winter wheat yield reductions were observed as well after the hot and dry spring and summer growing season. The impact of the drought and heat wave compound further facilitated the outbreak of bark beetle in 2018 and the following years, as a cumulative hazard and increased the probability of a dry surface water anomaly to an unexpected 68 %.

Taking advantage of the transdisciplinary research and gathered expertise in the frame of the coordinated German ClimXtreme project network (www.climxtreme.net), we analyze and characterize these 2018 events that link with severe impacts in Germany and neighboring countries in Central Europe. We focus on two key storylines with respect to the selected case studies of compound wind & rain and drought & heat. We provide a detailed overview of the data, methods and approaches used, the scales and aspects involved as well as the events’ drivers/dynamics and their multi-sectorial impacts. We finally demonstrate the importance of considering the various facets of the compound nature of extremes and respond to timely research questions that the ClimXtreme research network addresses, such as: attribution of changing compound events to climate change, understanding the variability of clustered storms, understanding the role of decadal variations on compound heat metrics, understanding and predicting the effects of climate change on landslides, analysis of past and future changes in the frequencies of compound events.

How to cite: Ellsäßer, F. and Xoplaki, E. and the The climXtreme research network on climate change and extreme events: Compound events in Germany: drivers and case studies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11534, 2022.

EGU22-191 | Presentations | AS1.18

Understanding the Dynamical Relation of MJO with Indian Summer Monsoon Onset and Progress 

smrutishree lenka, Krushna Chandra Gouda, and Chennemekeril Mathew Joseph

Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is an important oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon in the tropical belt around the globe which influences the global weather & climate system. The process mainly results east ward propagating band of rain clouds and its circulation pattern has a remarkable effect on the global annual rainfall. Monsoon onset is important as the rainfall transition and its progress has direct impact on the sectors like agriculture, water, health and economy etc. over the continent of India. As there are different phases in the MJO so it clearly affects the intra-seasonal and inter seasonal variability of rainfall, like for few phases it gives monsoon break type rainfall distribution whereas for some other phases it gives active rainfall distribution. It is also possible that the MJO phases have direct impact on the dynamics and physics during the onset as well as the progress of south west monsoon in India. In this study the association of different MJO phases and the resultant rainfall dynamics during onset period are analyzed using the multi-source weather observations for 68 years (1951-2018). The link of both active and weak phase of MJO and rainfall (duration and intensity) during the onset phases and thereafter during the progress of monsoon are quantified and presented. Also the spatial relation of the MJO location and the regional rainfall along with other oceanic parameters like Sea Surface Temperature, heat flux etc. are evaluated using the observed and reanalysis product. It is observed that mostly the active (weak) phase leads to early (late) onset over Kerala coast in India. Finally the tele-connection of progress of monsoon in continental India and the MJO phases are discussed. This association study will certainly help the researchers in better understanding of the MJO and regional rainfall dynamics and this information can be integrated with numerical weather prediction models for better and accurate prediction of the monsoon onset as well as the rainfall in the sub continent.

 

How to cite: lenka, S., Gouda, K. C., and Joseph, C. M.: Understanding the Dynamical Relation of MJO with Indian Summer Monsoon Onset and Progress, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-191, 2022.

EGU22-221 | Presentations | AS1.18

A multi-proxy approach to understand the monsoon driven changes in the eastern Arabian Sea during the Holocene 

Jeet Majumder, Anil Gupta, and Mruganka Panigrahi

Multiproxy records of benthic foraminifera, pteropods, and total organic carbon (TOC) of sediment samples from Core SK291/GC17 (water depth 182 meter), eastern Arabian Sea, indicate changes in monsoonal conditions and associated oceanographic variabilities during ~13000 to 3400 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP). During ~8000 cal yr BP, decreased abundance of pteropod Limacina trochiformis as well as the lower value of TOC, might be a proxy for a dry phase of monsoon. The interval from ~7800 to 6400 cal yr BP can be characterized by favorable bottom water conditions, as suggested by higher value of number of species (S), Information Function (H) and alpha index (α) of the benthic foraminiferal assemblage. The middle Holocene (~6200 to 4200 cal yr BP) interval is marked by a significant increase in the number of epipelagic pteropods caused by higher surface productivity and decreasing abundance of mesopelagic pteropods caused by the shoaling and intensification of the OMZ. The oxic group of benthic foraminifera decreased drastically while dysoxic group of benthic foraminifera increased during this interval, due to the intensified OMZ. After ~4200 cal yr BP, the oxic assemblage of benthic foraminifera and pteropods, coincide with a pronounced arid phase (4.2 ka event) in the Indian subcontinent. The oxic assemblage of benthic foraminifera shows high frequency cycles centered at 692, 440 and 358 yr driven by solar variability; while Uvigerina peregrina, a benthic foraminifer sensitive to OMZ variability, shows high frequency cycles of 403 and 745 yr.

How to cite: Majumder, J., Gupta, A., and Panigrahi, M.: A multi-proxy approach to understand the monsoon driven changes in the eastern Arabian Sea during the Holocene, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-221, 2022.

EGU22-432 | Presentations | AS1.18

The decadal modulation of the ENSO-Australian monsoon rainfall teleconnection 

Hanna Heidemann, Joachim Ribbe, Tim Cowan, and Benjamin J. Henley

We analyse the decadal variability in the relationship between Australian monsoon rainfall (AUMR) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A composite analysis is conducted to examine monsoon season (December to March) rainfall anomalies over northern Australia during central and eastern Pacific ENSO events between 1920 to 2020. These composites are evaluated separately for positive and negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and reveal differences in AUMR anomalies with respect to ENSO event diversity. During central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, the key month is February, in which the AUMR is above average in positive IPO phases and below average during negative IPO phases. This is due to low-level circulation anomalies northwest of Australia, which are cyclonic in the positive IPO phases and anticyclonic in negative IPO phases, in addition to moisture fluxes directed towards the central Pacific, away from northern Australia. During CP La Niña events, there are insignificant rainfall anomalies over northern Australia in December during positive IPO phases. In contrast, during negative IPO phases, strong and significant positive rainfall anomalies cover much of northern and eastern Australia, which relate to large-scale convergence of moisture and an intensification of the Walker Circulation. In summary, AUMR anomalies during CP ENSO events differ between positive and negative phases of the IPO due to variability in the large-scale atmospheric circulation.

How to cite: Heidemann, H., Ribbe, J., Cowan, T., and Henley, B. J.: The decadal modulation of the ENSO-Australian monsoon rainfall teleconnection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-432, 2022.

Robust projections of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) are critical as it provides 80 % of the annual precipitation to more than one billion people who are very vulnerable to changes. However, even over the historical period, CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) coupled models have difficulties to reproduce the observed ISMR trends and are affected by a large inter-model spread, which question the reliability of the ISMR projections. When studying climate response, three main sources of uncertainties exist : scenario uncertainties, internal variability and models bias. We study the impact of the latter on the historical response of ISMR of 34 models from CMIP6. First we show that model local biases over India do not impact significantly how they simulate the response of ISMR over the recent period. However, when we enlarge the analysis to the whole tropics and study the impact of regional and remote rainfall and SST biases on ISMR historical response by using a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA), we do find statistical significant relationships, which may provide observational constraints on future ISMR projections. Our results highlight the key-role of the temperature gradient errors between the arid regions surrounding India and the Arabian Sea on one hand, and of Pacific rainfall and SST biases on the other hand, as an important source of inter-model spread in the ISMR response. The physical mechanisms underlying these statistical relationships between ISMR response and the inter-model spread are finally explored.

How to cite: Guilbert, M., Mignot, J., and Terray, P.: Is there a relationship between the intermodel spread of biases and historical simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in CMIP6 coupled models ?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-735, 2022.

EGU22-997 | Presentations | AS1.18

Near-term Projection of the Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Using CESM 1.5C, 2.0C, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios 

Devanil Choudhury, Debashis Nath, and Wen Chen

The NCAR CESM low-warming simulations (1.50C, 2.00C), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to assess the near term (2021–2050) changes of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) variability. It is demonstrated that with the increase in warming and radiative forcing likely to cause an enhanced monsoon precipitation over east Asia. In 1.50C forced climate, a weak ISM circulation is projected, while for 2.00C warming monsoon circulation is likely to strengthen over the north Indian Ocean and intense easterlies from the equatorial Pacific are projected. Projection from the RCP4.5 scenario is associated with strong southwesterly monsoon wind over the entire Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and an intense easterly wind from the North Pacific to east Asia. The monsoon circulation over the north Indian Ocean is likely to weaken in the RCP8.5 forced climate. In all the scenarios, SLP variability over the far North Pacific is likely to play a dominant role as an internal variability to be able to influence the ISM circulation. It is found that an increasing standard deviation of internal Variability in SLP over the far North Pacific with increasing warming. Therefore, the importance of internal climate variability in SLP over the far North Pacific is clearly seen to influence the ISM projection pattern in the warming climate. Although model systematic biases in simulation still cause great concern for climate modelers, it is recognized that climate projections are inherently uncertain because a model can never fully describe the system that it attempts to specify. It is anticipated that this analysis based on the CESM ensemble will inspire probabilistic thinking and inform planning for the summer monsoon community and related stakeholders.

How to cite: Choudhury, D., Nath, D., and Chen, W.: Near-term Projection of the Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Using CESM 1.5C, 2.0C, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-997, 2022.

EGU22-1006 | Presentations | AS1.18

Change in characteristics of Monsoon low pressure systems under a warming climate 

Tresa Mary Thomas, Govindasamy Bala, and Venkata Vemavarapu Srinivas

The synoptic-scale tropical cyclonic disturbances that form over the monsoon trough region over the Indian subcontinent called monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are the major rain bearers for the country. They are also known to cause extreme precipitation events leading to multiple catastrophic floods almost every year. Understanding the change in their characteristics under a warming climate is necessary for better preparedness and mitigation of their adverse effect. In this study, we use the Climate Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) to investigate the impact of climate change on LPS characteristics over India. The model is run at 0.9°×1.25° horizontal resolution, and output is saved at 6-hourly intervals for LPS track analysis. Two experiments are performed: a present-day control simulation (CTRL) and an RCP8.5 simulation (indicating warmer climate) towards the end of the current century. LPS are tracked in the experiments using an Automated Tracking Algorithm using Geopotential Criteria (ATAGC) for a 37-year period in the control simulation and during 2070-2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario. As expected, an increase in mean monsoon precipitation and a decrease in monsoon circulation are simulated over the Indian subcontinent in RCP8.5 compared to CTRL. But the change in the number of LPS is insignificant under a warming climate. A shift is found in the number of LPS genesis over land and ocean, with a larger number of genesis over the land in the RCP8.5 scenario. The trend in precipitation is consistent with mean monsoon precipitation, i.e., an increase in the magnitude of mean and extreme precipitation associated with LPS occurs under a warmer climate. Results from the investigations on the likely causes of the model results will be presented at the meeting.

How to cite: Thomas, T. M., Bala, G., and Srinivas, V. V.: Change in characteristics of Monsoon low pressure systems under a warming climate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1006, 2022.

EGU22-1120 | Presentations | AS1.18

Influence of PDO and ENSO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its changing relationship before and after climate shift 

Anupama K Xavier, Hamza Varikoden, and Babu Chethalan Anthony

Indian summer monsoon provides rainfall over a large area during 01 June to 30 September and it plays vital role for the water needs of the population of India. It is intense because strong differential heating prevails over the region due to geographical features of India. Further, it can be viewed as a synoptic scale ocean - atmosphere interactive system. In this study, we investigated the possible relation between the Indian summer monsoon and the combination of the different phases of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) before and after the climate shift in 1976. This study is carried out using IMD’s precipitation dataset, HadISST v1.1 dataset and twentieth century reanalysis dataset by comparing anomalies of the respective parameters from 1901 to 2020. It is found that when positive (negative) phases of PDO and El Niño (La Niña) co-occur, deficit (surplus) rainfall are likely to occur over entire India. SST signatures of both phenomena are evident in this context. However, when negative (positive) PDO and El Niño (La Niña) co-occur, the signal is mixed and it is unlikely that either surplus or deficit rainfall conditions will occur over entire India. SST signatures are disrupted and minimized. In other words, when ENSO and PDO are in (out of) phase they enhance (counteract) the conventional monsoon-ENSO relation. Further, the study periods were divided into pre and post climate shift periods based on Niño 3.4 index and PDO index and analysed their impact on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In the pre-shift period, in-phase conditions exhibit similar qualities to those described above. Rainfall patterns are more indicative of ENSO than PDO. In the post-shift situation, the positive anomaly of SST in the PDO and Niño region is significantly stronger than that of the pre-shift phase. When compared to the pre-shift, positive rainfall anomalies are amplified during positive PDO and El Niño,  while negative PDO and La Niña show a weakening of positive rainfall anomalies. The out of phase condition has a balancing effect due to the counteracting impact, but with an increased positive anomaly of SST. In that combination, rainfall patterns with PDO characteristics rather than ENSO characteristics emerge. Significant warming of the Indian Ocean basin was also evident in the above combinations after the climate shift in 1976. Low level wind anomalies and other circulation features are consistent with the above result.

How to cite: K Xavier, A., Varikoden, H., and Chethalan Anthony, B.: Influence of PDO and ENSO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its changing relationship before and after climate shift, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1120, 2022.

EGU22-1759 | Presentations | AS1.18

Causal Drivers and Mechanisms of Monsoon Rainfall Over the Northern Indian Subcontinent 

Luisa E. Aviles Podgurski, Giorgia Di Capua, and Reik V. Donner

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) features an intense rainy season typically lasting from June to September that is responsible for approximately 75% of the total annual rainfall on the Indian subcontinent. Specifically, the Western (WHF) and Eastern Himalayan foothills (EHF) receive very high amounts of precipitation during the ISM season while also being densely populated [1, 2]. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes controlling ISM intraseasonal variability are of great societal relevance.

In our present work we identify and quantify causal relationships at short lead-times (three to nine days) between characteristic remote and local climate patterns and the precipitation over the WHF and EHF in order to uncover the underlying mechanisms. For this purpose we  first apply the so-called response-guided causal precursor detection (RG-CPD) scheme, an algorithm designed to identify causal precursors of a variable of interest [3]. The employed method is based on concepts of information theory and statistical mechanics, and allows to identify strongly interdependent climate patterns associated with the ISM and to distinguish between spurious and truly causal links. Resulting from this, causal effect networks (CENs) summarize the relationships among different climate variables by visually representing the actual direct causal linkages between the different variables, their strength and directionality, and associated time-lag.

Our analysis reveals that WHF rainfall variability is influenced by mid-latitude teleconnections such as the circumglobal teleconnection index. This can be seen in the analysis of the geopotential height at 200 hPa and in the 2m temperature. In addition the mean sea-level pressure of the Indian Ocean and the outgoing longwave radiation act as causal precursors to the rainfall. In general the WHF rainfall seems to be driven by similar precursors as the precipitation on the monsoon trough, which corresponds to a large region on the Indian subcontinent receiving the highest amounts of rainfall [4, 5]. By contrast, EHF rainfall is driven by a different set of atmospheric processes. Specifically, we find a causal driver in the eastern equatorial Pacific manifesting itself in the geopotential height at 500 hPa and the mean sea-level pressure, potentially indicating that intraseasonal tropical variability patterns associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation and/or the Walker circulation might exert a significant influence on EHF rainfall. The obtained results by this study may be relevant for designing improved (statistical) forecasts of monsoonal rainfall activity in the different regions beyond synoptic time scales.

References
[1] Vellore, R., et al., On the anomalous precipitation enhancement over the Himalayan foothills during monsoon breaks, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2009-2031 (2014).
[2] Vellore, R., et al., Monsoon { extratropical circulation interactions in Himalayan extreme rainfall, Clim. Dynam., 46, 3517-3564 (2016).
[3] Runge, J., Causal network reconstruction from time series: From theoretical assumptions to practical estimation, Chaos, 28, 075310 (2018).
[4] Di Capua, G., et al., Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach, Earth Syst. Dyn., 11, 17-34 (2020).
[5] Di Capua, G., et al., Long-Lead Statistical Forecasts of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Based on Causal Precursors, Weather Forecast., 34, 1377-1394 (2019).

 

How to cite: Aviles Podgurski, L. E., Di Capua, G., and Donner, R. V.: Causal Drivers and Mechanisms of Monsoon Rainfall Over the Northern Indian Subcontinent, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1759, 2022.

EGU22-2120 | Presentations | AS1.18

Influence of the NAO on wintertime surface air temperature over the East Asia: multidecadal variability and decadal prediction 

Jianping Li, Tiejun Xie, Xinxin Tang, Hao Wang, Cheng Sun, Juan Feng, Fei Zheng, and Ruiqiang Ding

In this paper, we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT) and its decadal prediction. The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT (EAmSAT) display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60–80-year multidecadal variability, apart from a long-term warming trend. The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades, which is conducive to the occurrence of winter extremely cold events in East Asia in recent years. The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12–18 years with a maximumly significant positive correlation at the leading time of 15 years. Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability, but does not affect the robust leading relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT. We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of ~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Africa–Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. Based on the COAB mechanism an NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed, with good hindcast performance. The winter EASAT for 2020–2034 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until ~2025, implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia, and then turn towards sharp warming. The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.

Keywords: winter East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern, coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB), multidecadal variability.

How to cite: Li, J., Xie, T., Tang, X., Wang, H., Sun, C., Feng, J., Zheng, F., and Ding, R.: Influence of the NAO on wintertime surface air temperature over the East Asia: multidecadal variability and decadal prediction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2120, 2022.

EGU22-2652 | Presentations | AS1.18

Modality and seasonal variation of the tropical rain belt across climates and models 

Ori Adam, Alexander Farnsworth, and Daniel Lunt

The tropical rain belt is composed of rain bands that lie along the rising branches of the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. The properties of these rain bands determine the zonal-mean tropical precipitation distribution, which varies between uni- and bimodality. Here we define tropical modality as an index that varies continuously between 1 and 2 for purely uni- and bimodal distributions. We examine the relation of tropical modality to the seasonal cycle of the tropical rain belt across a wide range of climate models from phases 5 and 6 of the climate model intercomparison project, simulations of Earth's climate over geological timescales (~300Ma to present), and observations. Our analysis shows that modality is an essential characteristic of tropical climate, which binds together fundamental properties of the tropical rain belt and its associated tropical overturning circulation. Specifically, tropical modality is found to efficiently parse differences across models and climates, especially in regions where variance is greatest. Increased tropical modality (i.e., tendency toward bimodality) is strongly related to increased width of the tropical rain belt, wider and weaker Hadley circulation, colder equatorial cold tongues, and more severe double-intertropical convergence zone bias in modern climate models. As tropical modality increases, considering shifts of hemispheric precipitation peaks becomes crucial. In particular, counter to general wisdom, for large tropical modality (i.e., ~2), seasonal migrations of the tropical rain belt do not follow the Hadley circulation paradigm, to the extent that hemispheric rain bands might not follow the Sun.

How to cite: Adam, O., Farnsworth, A., and Lunt, D.: Modality and seasonal variation of the tropical rain belt across climates and models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2652, 2022.

EGU22-2891 | Presentations | AS1.18 | Highlight

On the potential impact of the Great Green Wall on the West African Monsoon 

Roberto Ingrosso and Francesco Rocco Salvatore Pausata

The Great GreenWall (GGW) is a multibillion-dollar African initiative to combat desertification and drought in the Sahel.  In Western Africa, the most important climate feature is the West African Monsoon (WAM), which brings rainfall over the Sahel during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Changes in WAM strength and length could impact climate both regionally and far afield, such as the tropical Atlantic, equatorial Pacific or the Arctic, Potential climatic system response to a greener Sahel are investigated, by means of an atmospheric climate model, looking at changes in the regional atmospheric circulation and climate indices aimed at providing information about changes in extreme events. The analysis shows significant changes in temperature, precipitation and atmopsheric circulation and in the climate indices considered related to the presence of the GGW for the end of this century. 

How to cite: Ingrosso, R. and Pausata, F. R. S.: On the potential impact of the Great Green Wall on the West African Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2891, 2022.

EGU22-3137 | Presentations | AS1.18

Ventilation revisited: how dry continental air splits the ITCZ and stops the monsoon 

Michela Biasutti and Aiko Voigt

The Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized narrow equatorial continent. In the control simulation, the rain band moves between hemispheres over the annual cycle, so that the annual-mean state displays a broad ITCZ straddling the equator. The introduction of the continent causes an equatorial cold tongue to develop off the western coast and, correspondingly, dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic ITCZ.  The oceanic cooling is initiated by the advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent, but it persists and is amplified by positive feedbacks. In the long wave (LW) feedback, a colder SST leads to drier and colder air, reduced downwelling LW flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling. On the equator, the wind, evaporation, and SST (WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue.  The annual mean signal over the ocean is dominated by the continental winter cooling and drying because warm, humid anomalies in the summer hemisphere are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence.   Over land itself, aside for the timing of rainfall’s seasonal progression (i.e., the rainy season occurring close to the time of maximum insolation) the continental rain band remains in an ITCZ-like regime akin deep-tropical monsoons, with a smooth latitudinal transition, a poleward reach only slightly farther than the oceanic ITCZ's, and a constant width throughout the year. The confinement of the monsoon to the deep tropics, especially in the western portion of the continent, is the result of advection of dry, low moist static energy air–a process known as ventilation. Contrary to much previous literature, though, we find that ventilation is not achieved by the mean westerly jet aloft bringing colder oceanic air over the continent, but by the anomalous low-level meridional circulation, which brings dry air from the subtropical portion of the continent equatorward. Because the anomalous circulation is in turn a response to the convection anomalies, we conclude that the limiting mechanism for the monsoon is coupled and sensitive to the surface properties of the land. 

How to cite: Biasutti, M. and Voigt, A.: Ventilation revisited: how dry continental air splits the ITCZ and stops the monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3137, 2022.

EGU22-3471 | Presentations | AS1.18

What do CMIP6 models tell us about rainfall intensification in the West African Sahel? 

Guillaume Chagnaud, Geremy Panthou, Theo Vischel, and Thierry Lebel

Regional projections of rainfall changes are required for adaptation planning, especially in regions where unprecedented climatic evolution are underway, such as the West African Sahel. The potential of models to draw a realistic picture of future regional changes remains to be assessed through the lens of past evolution. Here we make sense of several rainfall regime indicators, a widespread raingauge dataset and a set of the most recent climate model simulations to identify features that deserve confidence and others that require care. We show that, at the sahelian scale, the mean intensity and occurrence of rainy days are well reproduced, yielding a good depiction of the recent rainfall intensification. However, unlike wet extremes, changes in dry extremes are not captured, pointing to model deficiencies in reproducing realistic changes in intraseasonal rainfall variability. We also show that the regional rainfall evolution of the last 35 years is very unlikely due to neither internal variability nor to natural forcing factors alone; based on a qualitative attribution analysis, aerosols turn out to account for the largest share of the recent increasing signal. The greenhouse-gases (GHG) influence makes less consensus among models, especially regarding extreme rainfall trends. This is a major concern for projections of future hydro-climatic trajectories in the region since GHG is to become the predominant climate forcing factor for the coming decades.

How to cite: Chagnaud, G., Panthou, G., Vischel, T., and Lebel, T.: What do CMIP6 models tell us about rainfall intensification in the West African Sahel?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3471, 2022.

EGU22-5015 | Presentations | AS1.18 | Highlight

Mechanical forcing of the North American monsoon by orography 

Salvatore Pascale and William Boos

The core of the North American monsoon (NAM) is characterized by a band of intense rainfall along the western coast of Mexico. This rainfall band is commonly understood to be caused by thermal forcing from both the elevated terrain of that region (Sierra Madre) and land. This fits into the general paradigm of monsoons as thermally direct circulations driven by heat sources. In this talk, instead, we show that the NAM rainfall is generated by the interaction of the extratropical jet stream with mountain ranges. We reach this conclusion using observations, a high-resolution global climate model, and stationary wave solutions to show that the NAM core rainfall band arises when Mexico’s Sierra Madre mountains mechanically force an adiabatic stationary wave through the equatorward diversion of extratropical westerly winds; westerly, upslope flow associated with that stationary wave then lifts warm and moist air to cause convective rainfall. Heat fluxes at the surface precondition the atmosphere for convection, especially in summer afternoons, but they alone are insufficient to produce the observed rainfall maximum.

 

These results, together with dynamical structures in observations and models, indicate that the core monsoon should be understood as convectively enhanced orographic rainfall in a mechanically forced stationary wave, not as a classic, thermally forced tropical monsoon. This has implications for the response of the NAM to past and future global climate change, making trends in jet stream interactions with orography of central importance.

How to cite: Pascale, S. and Boos, W.: Mechanical forcing of the North American monsoon by orography, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5015, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5015, 2022.

The trends of extreme precipitation events during the Indian summer monsoon measured by two different indicators have been analyzed for the period 1901-2020, covering the entire India in 9 regions segregated by a clustering analysis based on rainfall characteristics using the Indian Meteorological Department high-resolution gridded data. The important climatological parameters correlating to such increasing trends have also been identified by performing for the first time a multivariate analysis using a nonlinear machine learning regression with 17 input variables. It is found that man-made long-term shifting of land-use and land-cover patterns, and most significantly the urbanization, play a crucial role in the prediction of the long-term trends of extreme precipitation events, particularly of the intensity of extremes. To further study this urbanization impact, a regional cloud-resolving model has been used to examine causal relation between drastic long-lasting change brought by urbanization and extreme precipitation events. The preliminary results will be presented.

How to cite: Falga, R. and Wang, C.: On the rise of Indian summer monsoon precipitation extremes and its correlations with long-term changes of certain anthropogenic factors and climate variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5558, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5558, 2022.

EGU22-5658 | Presentations | AS1.18

Are winds and moisture necessary to cause Indian summer monsoon extremes? 

Priyanshi Singhai, Arindam Chakraborty, Kavirajan Rajendran, and Sajani Surendran

The extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are largely driven by the modulation of vertically integrated moisture flux over the Arabian sea (70oE) and the Bay of Bengal (90oE). The droughts and floods are resulted due to strong divergence and convergence of the moisture-laden winds over India associated with various external forcings. Therefore, identifying the association of the zonal moisture flux with ISMR in the observation and Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model is essential to improve the prediction of the ISMR extremes. We find that, unlike observation, ISMR extremes in CFSv2 are all ENSO-related and mainly driven by the moisture flux over the Bay of Bengal and remain unresponsive to eastward boundary flux at 70oE. Further decomposition of the fluxes into dynamical (winds) and thermodynamical (moisture) components shows that both moisture and winds terms over the Arabian sea are necessary for determining extremes. However, in CFSv2, only the winds component of the eastern boundary (90oE) flux plays a significant role in driving the ISMR extremes. It is due to the presence of strong heating over the Western Pacific which results in strong eastward moisture flux over the Bay of Bengal through a Gill-type response.    

How to cite: Singhai, P., Chakraborty, A., Rajendran, K., and Surendran, S.: Are winds and moisture necessary to cause Indian summer monsoon extremes?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5658, 2022.

Coupled ocean-atmosphere teleconnections are characteristics of internal variability which have a forced response just like mean states. It is not trivial how to correctly and optimally estimate the forced response and changes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnection under greenhouse forcing. Here we use two different approaches to address it. The first approach, based on the conventional temporal method applied to 30 model simulations in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, suggests no model consensus on changes in the teleconnection on interannual timescale under global warming. The second approach is based on a converged infinite single model initial condition large ensemble (SMILE) and defines the relationship in an instantaneous climatological sense. In view of several characteristics of the teleconnection, a robust long-term strengthening of the teleconnection is found in the MPI-GE but not in the CESM1-LE. We discuss appropriateness and limitations of the two methods. 

How to cite: Lee, J.-Y. and Bodai, T.: Future Changes of the ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon Teleconnection: The temporal vs ensemble-wise approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6741, 2022.

EGU22-6769 | Presentations | AS1.18

Contribution of cross-equatorial dry intrusions to Indian summer monsoon rainfall 

Deepika Rai and Shira Raveh-Rubin

Daily-to-weekly variations between active and break monsoon phases critically control Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall and directly influence society. This variability depends on the complex air flows from different origins; for example, dry intrusions (DIs) reaching the Indian region from western Asia limit ISM rainfall. This study documents DIs that originate in the southern hemisphere winter, cross the equator and reach the Arabian Sea during the ISM season. Being a global hot spot of such cross-equatorial intrusions, they have great potential to modify the moisture availability and hence the ISM rainfall.
Using 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis data with a Lagrangian approach, we show that more than 95% of cross-equatorial DIs reach below 850 hPa in the Arabian Sea within five days of their initiation in the southern hemisphere. Though rare (<1% frequency in time), their presence in the marine boundary layer triggers intense ocean evaporation and enhances the low-level Somali jet intensity. The result is compensation for their initial dryness and overall increasing the moisture transport towards India. Analysis based on 130 DI events during the ISM season from 1979-2018, shows that more than 64% of the DI events are associated with more rainfall, with a mean 12% enhancement in the rain compared to climatology. These DI events favor the central Indian Ocean as the major source of moisture during the ISM season, different from mean conditions. Indeed, 52% of known active spells are preceded by DI events. In summary, cross-equatorial DIs reaching the marine boundary layer over the tropical Indian ocean during ISM season is responsible for the development of anomalously moist air, which enhances the rainfall over the Indian region downstream, and are thus crucial for ISM rainfall predictability.

How to cite: Rai, D. and Raveh-Rubin, S.: Contribution of cross-equatorial dry intrusions to Indian summer monsoon rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6769, 2022.

EGU22-6833 | Presentations | AS1.18

Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6 

Suyeon Moon and Kyung-Ja Ha

Future change in summertime rainfall under a warmer climate will impact the lives of more than two-thirds of the world’s population. However, the future changes in the duration of the rainy season affected by regional characteristics are not yet entirely understood. We try to understand changes in the length of the rainy season as well as the amounts of the future summertime precipitation, and the related processes over regional monsoon domains using phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive. Projections reveal extensions of the rainy season over the most of monsoon domains, except over the American monsoon. Enhancing the precipitation in the future climate has various increasing rates depending on the subregional monsoon, and it is mainly affected by changes in thermodynamic factors. This study promotes awareness for the risk of unforeseen future situations by showing regional changes in precipitation according to future scenarios.

 

How to cite: Moon, S. and Ha, K.-J.: Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6833, 2022.

EGU22-6986 | Presentations | AS1.18

The Impact of Hengduan Mountains Formation on the Regional Monsoon Climate and Extreme Precipitation 

Ruolan Xiang, Christian Steger, Silje Sørland, and Christoph Schär

The Hengudan Mountains, located at the south-eastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau, reveal exceptionally high biodiversity. It is believed that this feature is linked to past complex interactions between climate, land surface dynamics and plate tectonics in this region. Contemporary topography was formed by plate tectonics, causing surface uplift, and spatially heterogeneous erosion, which shaped the deep river valleys. The non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO is applied to study the impact of surface uplift and river incision. Decades-long simulations at horizontal resolutions of 12 and 4.4 km grid spacing are performed. To study the impact of local topography on climate, we consider two idealized experiments with terrains deviating from the present-day topography: In the first experiment, we reduce the topography in a spatially non-uniform way. This altered topography reflects a past potential state of the Hengduan Mountains. In the second experiment, we remove the deep valleys by applying an envelope topography to quantify the effects of deep valleys on the local climate. Both experiments assume that that the large-scale (continental) climate did not change, i.e., the experiments are driven by large-scale reanalysis data. Preliminary results from the coarse-resolution 12 km COSMO simulation indicate that the uplift of the Hengduan Mountains has a strong impact on the summer monsoon over South Asia caused by circulation changes around the uplifted region. The uplift of the Hengduan Mountains strengthens the westerly wind anomalies from the ocean in South Asia and markedly intensifies the precipitation in Indochina and southwestern China. Besides, the cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal extends eastward, indicating an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon. The diabatic heating in the eastern Tibetan Plateau increases in response to the regional uplift and it is coupled with the increased precipitation in summer through moist processes. On the contrary, the uplift has little impact on the strengthening of the winter monsoon. In the next stage, we will conduct the same simulations at a higher horizontal resolution of 4.4 km, which captures local terrain more accurate. These simulations will use explicit rather than parameterized convection, thereby providing more realistic estimates of heavy precipitation and erosion. Subsequently, we will run the same experiments for the envelop topography. We expect to relate the changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation to the changes in the local moisture transport and vertical movement in the high-resolution perspective. In the future, the two different topographies along with the modern topography will be used for simulations of two time periods in the past (i.e., the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago) and a phase in the Late Miocene (∼7 Ma)) and the future climate (2070–2100).

How to cite: Xiang, R., Steger, C., Sørland, S., and Schär, C.: The Impact of Hengduan Mountains Formation on the Regional Monsoon Climate and Extreme Precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6986, 2022.

EGU22-7125 | Presentations | AS1.18

Forced modulations of Sahel rainfall at decadal timescales over the20th Century using CMIP6 models 

Cassien Diabe Ndiaye, Juliette Mignot, and Elsa Mohino

During the 20th Century, Sahel rainfall has experienced strong variability at decadal timescales, partly attributed to the internal variability of the climate system, mediated by changes in oceanic sea surface temperature (SST). However, a stronger emphasis has been more recently given to the role of external forcing. Thus, the attribution of past decadal modulations of Sahel rainfall is still under debate.

In this study, we propose a diagnostic of the contribution of external forcing to observed Sahel rainfall decadal modulations based on a correlation analysis. We apply it to six models of the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) in the whole 20th Century. Our results show that external forcings induce a weak amplitude of Sahel rainfall modulations in the models and these modulations are in general insignificantly correlated with the observed modulations. There are two notable exceptions: IPSL-CM6A-LR and INM-CM5-0 models.

With the IPSL-CM6-LR model, our results show that this correlation primarily arises from the role of anthropogenic aerosols. This effect is partly explained via the ocean mediated mechanism in particular the North Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean sea. In CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1 models, the Sahel rainfall decadal forced modulations are also dominantly due to anthropogenic aerosols, although not significantly correlated with the observations. In addition, the greenhouse gases (GHG) contribute significantly to the forced response of these models, which could explain partly the insignificant correlation of these CMIP6 models. 

How to cite: Ndiaye, C. D., Mignot, J., and Mohino, E.: Forced modulations of Sahel rainfall at decadal timescales over the20th Century using CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7125, 2022.

EGU22-7261 | Presentations | AS1.18

Spatio-temporal communities in networks of extreme rainfall events of the South Asian Monsoon 

Felix Strnad and Bedartha Goswami

Climate networks have recently helped to unravel spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events (EREs). However, EREs remain challenging to analyse due to their inherent stochasticty involved in their local distribution and intensity. Here, we present a principled approach to identify regions of similar ERE dynamics with the idea that this will help developing ERE prediction schemes in a later study.
We use a probabilistic approach to quantify community structures and estimating the structural uncertainties involved in the community detection process. First, we use time-delayed event synchronization to construct a network of ERE teleconnections. Using a Bayesian hierarchical community detection algorithm based on the Stochastic Block Model (SBM) enables us to estimate the likelihood that spatial locations belong to the same community via a point-wise spatial density analysis.
We apply our method to the South Asian Monsoon system and reveal a latitudinal band-like structure of synchronous EREs, whose occurrence is consistent with the onset and withdrawal of the monsoon season. Moreover, we demonstrate that exceptionally strong synchronization is observed when a fast developing low pressure system over the South China Sea occurs, as demonstrated by climatologies of days with maximum synchronization. 

How to cite: Strnad, F. and Goswami, B.: Spatio-temporal communities in networks of extreme rainfall events of the South Asian Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7261, 2022.

EGU22-7470 | Presentations | AS1.18

Using surrogate models to quantify uncertainty in simulations of the West African Monsoon 

Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, Roderick van der Linden, Alexander Lemburg, Gregor Pante, and Carsten Proppe

Forecasting the West African monsoon (WAM) on weather and climate timescales suffers from large uncertainties. Particularly the precipitation associated with the WAM has a great socioeconomic impact through effects on agriculture, energy production, water resources and health.  Aside from errors stemming from initial condition uncertainty, forecasts are generally affected by model uncertainties associated with parameter choices in the representation of sub-gridscale processes. To quantify the combined effect of the latter, a comprehensive sensitivity study is conducted by feeding output of a highly-resolved atmospheric model into so-called surrogate models. This technique allows a comprehensive but resource-friendly statistical investigation of the sensitivity of key WAM characteristics to uncertain model parameters.

The ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic) model, which is operationally used by the German Weather Service (DWD), is used to simulate the WAM in limited-area mode at 13km grid spacing, using ERA-5 re-analyses as boundary data. To separate model parameter related sensitivities from weather noise and to reduce the influence of initial conditions, a sufficiently long simulation time (in this study 4 WAM seasons with 41 days each starting on July 21st) is required. To avoid the immense computational costs of conducting a large matrix of month-long numerical simulations, surrogate models are used to statistically describe the relationship between uncertain model parameters and quantities of interest (QoIs) derived from the simulation output. For this study, we selected the QoIs total precipitation, latitudinal position of the WAM rain belt, location and strength of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), location and extent of the Saharan heat low (SHL) as well as location of the Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD).

For each of the chosen six uncertain model parameters probability density functions are assigned based on measurements and previous studies. Maximin Latin hypercube sampling is applied in order to define 60 parameter combinations. Universal kriging as a general case of Gaussian process regression is used to build surrogate models for the QoIs. These then serve to carry out global sensitivity studies in order to identify the parameters that have the greatest influence on the QoIs. The results indicate for which parameters (and thus processes) uncertainties need to be reduced to lower the spread in simulated QoIs. Furthermore, the surrogate model can serve as a basis for parameter identification studies, e. g. by means of maximum likelihood estimation where simulations are compared to observations.

Among the investigated model parameters, the entrainment rate in the convection scheme and the terminal fall velocity of cloud ice show the greatest effects on the QoIs. The former mainly affects the AEJ, the SHL and the ITD, whereas the latter mainly influences the TEJ. Simple isolated relationships between individual model parameters and WAM QoIs, however, rarely exist. Consistent with the complex nature of the WAM system, individual QoIs instead are affected by multiple parameters. On the other hand, individual parameters affect multiple QoIs simultaneously, reflecting the physical relationships between them. This highlights the usefulness of incorporating surrogate models in the analysis of model uncertainty.

How to cite: Fischer, M., Knippertz, P., van der Linden, R., Lemburg, A., Pante, G., and Proppe, C.: Using surrogate models to quantify uncertainty in simulations of the West African Monsoon, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7470, 2022.

EGU22-8335 | Presentations | AS1.18

Decadal variability of rainfall extreme events in Senegal over the 20th century:observations and modelling 

Aissatou Badji, Juliette Mignot, Elsa Mohino, Moussa Diakhaté, and Amadou Thierno Gaye

The intraseasonal characteristics of rainfall are crucial in monsoon regions, in particular for
agriculture. Crop yields indeed depend on the rainfall seasonal amount, but also on other
intraseasonal characteristics such as the onset of the rainy season or the distribution of rainy days.
In the Sahel region, while the average amount of seasonal rainfall has been shown to be marked by
strong decadal variability over the 20 th century, the modulations of intraseasonal rainfall
characteristics has received less attention in the literature so far. In this study, we show that the
frequency and intensity of intraseasonal rainfall events in Senegal exhibit a marked decadal
variability over the 1918-2000 period, similar to that of mean seasonal rainfall in the Sahel during
the 20 th century, and in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). The representation
of the decadal modulation of these rainfall indices is further investigated using the atmospheric
component of the IPSL-CM6 model forced by the historically observed SST. Preliminary results
show that the model represents fairly well the observed decadal modulation of these extreme events.
Thus, the model simulations allow an in-depth understanding of the associated mechanism.

How to cite: Badji, A., Mignot, J., Mohino, E., Diakhaté, M., and Gaye, A. T.: Decadal variability of rainfall extreme events in Senegal over the 20th century:observations and modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8335, 2022.

EGU22-8832 | Presentations | AS1.18

Rapid intensification of Somali Jet kinetic energy prior to monsoon onset 

Rajat Masiwal, Vishal Dixit, and Ashwin K Seshadri

The onset of the South Asian summer monsoon is characterized by low-level cross-equatorial flow in the western Indian ocean. This flow turns eastward and becomes a zonally oriented jet off the East African coast at around 10°N, which is called the Somali Jet. The Somali jet is an important factor in the monsoon onset over the Indian region and transports moisture from the Arabian sea, playing a key role in South Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The kinetic energy (KE) of the jet has an increase that is much more rapid (a few days) than the evolution of solar insolation forcing (over a month). With the help of high-resolution reanalysis data, we explore the factors responsible for this rapid increase in kinetic energy. Using calculations of the KE budget we find that KE generation, from the scalar product of geopotential gradient and horizontal winds, has a high correlation with KE itself, and furthermore shows a rapid increase at the time of jet onset. The major contribution of this KE generation comes from the meridional component (-v∂Φ/∂y) , and is confirmed by a decomposition of generation based on EOF analysis. We demonstrate that a dominant balance between the KE generation and KE advection exists, suggesting that the boundary layer at the location of the highest KE generation is advective in nature. Furthermore, we observe that high KE generation occurs in the regime where the local Rossby number is close to 1. The meridional wind (v) is, to a good approximation, linearly proportional to the meridional component of geopotential gradient (∂Φ/∂y), and the latitude at which this relationship between v and ∂Φ/∂y is the strongest coincides with the location of the jet strength maximum (around 10°N). This strong relationship and consequent abrupt increase of the KE generation diminishes as we ascend the troposphere. Together these findings give rise to an unconventional boundary layer dynamics view of the Somali jet.

How to cite: Masiwal, R., Dixit, V., and Seshadri, A. K.: Rapid intensification of Somali Jet kinetic energy prior to monsoon onset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8832, 2022.

EGU22-8983 | Presentations | AS1.18

Impact of the South China Sea summer monsoon on the Indian Ocean dipole in CMIP5 models 

Yazhou Zhang and Jianping Li

The impact of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) on the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) has been systematically investigated in observations. This study focuses on the ability of climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to reproduce the observed relationship between the SCSSM and IOD, and the relevant physical mechanisms. All 23 models reproduce significant correlations between the SCSSM and IOD during boreal summer (June–July–August, JJA), whereas the influence of the SCSSM on the IOD varies considerably across the CMIP5 models. To explore the causes, all models are divided into two groups. Models that successfully simulated both the correlations between the SCSSM and JJA IOD and of the SCSSM and JJA IOD with precipitation over the western North Pacific and Maritime Continent are classified as Type-I, and these produce stronger low-level wind anomalies over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean. The stronger low-level wind anomalies enhance local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies via positive wind–evaporation–SST (WES) and wind–thermocline–SST (Bjerknes) feedbacks. This corresponds to a strengthening of IOD events due to the increased zonal gradient of SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, Type-II models perform poorly in representing the relationship between the SCSSM and JJA IOD or relevant atmospheric bridges, corresponding to weaker WES and Bjerknes feedbacks, and produce weaker IOD events. These results demonstrate that the better the model simulation of the atmospheric bridge, the larger contribution of the SCSSM to the IOD.

How to cite: Zhang, Y. and Li, J.: Impact of the South China Sea summer monsoon on the Indian Ocean dipole in CMIP5 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8983, 2022.

EGU22-9522 | Presentations | AS1.18

Correction of Monthly SST Forecasts in CFSv2 Using the Local Dynamical Analog Method 

Zhaolu Hou, Jianping Li, and Bin Zuo

Numerical seasonal forecasts in Earth science always contain forecast errors that cannot be eliminated by improving the ability of the numerical model. Therefore, correction of model forecast results is required. Analog correction is an effective way to reduce model forecast errors, but the key question is how to locate analogs. In this paper, we updated the local dynamical analog (LDA) algorithm to find analogs and depicted the process of model error correction as the LDA correction scheme. The LDA correction scheme was first applied to correct the operational seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) over the period 1982–2018 from the state-of-the-art coupled climate model named NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2. The results demonstrated that the LDA correction scheme improves forecast skill inmany regions as measured by the correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error, especially over the extratropical eastern Pacific and tropical Pacific, where the model has high simulation ability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the focused physics process is also improved. The seasonal predictability barrier of ENSO is in remission, and the forecast skill of central Pacific ENSO also increases due to the LDA correction method. The intensity of the ENSOmature phases is improved.Meanwhile, the ensemble forecast results are corrected, which proves the positive influence from this LDA correction scheme on the probability forecast of cold and warm events. Overall, the LDA correction scheme, combining statistical and model dynamical information, is demonstrated to be readily integrable with other advanced operational models and has the capability to improve forecast results.

How to cite: Hou, Z., Li, J., and Zuo, B.: Correction of Monthly SST Forecasts in CFSv2 Using the Local Dynamical Analog Method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9522, 2022.

EGU22-10671 | Presentations | AS1.18 | Highlight

ENSO modulation of MJO and its impacts on South America: enhancement of extreme events 

Alice M Grimm and Lais G Fernandes

The changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its impacts on the South American monsoon season during different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states (El Niño – EN, La Niña – LN, neutral – NT) are analyzed in the global context of the MJO propagating anomalies of convection and circulation. The background ENSO-related anomalies influence several aspects of MJO (relative occurrence of phases, propagation, convection and teleconnections), and therefore modify the MJO impacts on South America (SA), such as precipitation anomalies and frequency of extreme events, as well as their temporal distribution throughout the MJO cycle. Changes include: (1) a delay in the peak of the teleconnections between central-eastern Pacific and SA, from MJOphase8 in LN to MJOphase1 in EN; (2) enhanced MJO convection in the central-east subtropical South Pacific in MJOLNphases7+8 and a little further east in MJOENphases8+1, in a region efficient in generating tropics-extratropics teleconnections via Rossby wave to SA, producing rainfall anomalies over Central-East SA (CESA), especially the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), strongest one phase earlier in LN (MJOLNphase8) than in EN (MJOENphase1), and a little shifted east in the latter than in the former; (3) enhancement of the extratropical teleconnection via Rossby wave and its impacts over subtropical CESA in both EN and LN (with regard to NT), suggesting that both ENSO states generate forcing in the source region that more efficiently triggers stronger Rossby waves than forcing in NT ENSO years, indicating nonlinear ENSO effects on MJO anomalies over SA; (4) predominant increase (or reduction) in the frequency of extreme events over densely populated SA regions where both ENSO and MJO contribute in the same direction, with the greatest increase over CESA (including SACZ) during EN, in MJOENphase1, and over Southeast SA (SESA), in MJOENphase3; (4) enhanced amplitude in both states, EN and LN, of the first continental intraseasonal dipole-like mode of precipitation variability between CESA and SESA, with maximum opposite anomalies in CESA, the center with largest amplitude, in phases 1 and 4 for EN, and phases 8 and 5 for LN. Significant effects can also be observed in other regions, such as northeast and northwest SA.

How to cite: Grimm, A. M. and Fernandes, L. G.: ENSO modulation of MJO and its impacts on South America: enhancement of extreme events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10671, 2022.

EGU22-11378 | Presentations | AS1.18

Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models in Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over Central India 

Rohtash Saini, Raju Attada, and Akash Pathaikara

The South Asian monsoon is a lifeline of over two billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. Hence, a reliable monsoon prediction system is essential for the operation of weather and climate over the region. The state-of-art General Circulation Models (GCMs) are powerful tools for monsoon prediction and assessing the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature in rising extreme events such as floods, storms, heatwaves, and drought. However, selecting appropriate GCMs is a grand challenge for assessing climate change projections due to their significant uncertainties. The present study will evaluate the relative performance of GCMs of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project dataset based on their multi-model mean (MMM) ability to project rainfall and temperature during the summer season (JJAS) over central India. In addition to the spatial patterns under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the study will also examine the model's ability to simulate interannual variability. The present research aims to determine the most reliable CMIP6 and CMIP5 datasets model and their comparison in simulation and projection of seasonal temperature and precipitation. The seasonal climatological mean of GCMs simulated rainfall and temperature shows variability at different scales over central India. CMIP6 multi-model mean demonstrate a reasonably well performance than CMIP5 in the seasonal mean cycle simulation with a better representation of the rainfall. The present study will also investigate the changes in sources of projection uncertainty and future precipitation indices. Finally, the current research will discuss the highlights of comparing the CMIP6 and CMIP5 datasets and their representations of better simulation performances based on the skill score metrics of precipitation and temperature indices.

KEYWORDS. CMIP6, CMIP5, MMM precipitation and temperature, Projection

How to cite: Saini, R., Attada, R., and Pathaikara, A.: Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models in Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over Central India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11378, 2022.

EGU22-11673 | Presentations | AS1.18

Evaluation of Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models 

Popat Salunke and Saroj Kanta Mishra

The performance of climate models and their multi-model mean (MMM) in CMIP6 and CMIP5 precipitation simulations is compared using the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season (June-September) from 1975-2005. It is found that CMIP6 MMM better simulates the spatial distribution of seasonal mean precipitation than CMIP5 MMM and has shown improvements in biases over central India, northeast India, and also in capturing orography related precipitation over western Ghats and the northeast Himalayas. CMIP6 MMM performed better than CMIP5 MMM in capturing precipitation trends but failed to capture the overall declining trend. In consequence, in terms of precipitation simulation, the CMIP6 models (pattern correlation 0.4-0.8) outperformed the CMIP5 models (pattern correlation 0.2-0.7). MMMs well capture the observed phase of the annual cycle of the precipitation but underestimate the amplitude during summer monsoon months. In contrast, most of the CMIP6 models and their MMM have improved skill scores (SS) (SS 0.66) in reproducing the climatological summer precipitation compared to CMIP5 models and their MMM (SS 0.57). Furthermore, the results show that the Somali jet strength is well associated with ISM rainfall and has risen by about 2 m s-1 in CMIP6 MMM compared to CMIP5 MMM. 

Key Word: Indian Summer Monson, MMM, CMIP6, CMIP5, Precipitation

 

How to cite: Salunke, P. and Mishra, S. K.: Evaluation of Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11673, 2022.

EGU22-12004 | Presentations | AS1.18

Relationship between surface thermodynamic contrasts and precipitation intensity in idealised monsoon simulations 

Maxime Colin, Jan O. Haerter, and Vishal Dixit

While the traditional view of monsoons as continental sea breezes generated by land-sea contrasts was shown to have serious limitations, several competing alternative frameworks look promising. Within this debate, it remains unclear if the surface temperature contrast matters at all for the monsoon precipitation, and why there is a non-linear intensification of precipitation intensity with surface temperature forcing.

 

Idealised studies such as aquaplanets often help improve our understanding of basic mechanisms. But there are very few idealised simulation studies of monsoons at high resolution. Therefore, to determine if monsoon non-linearities with surface forcing come from convective processes, dynamical feedbacks, or from non-linearities in the forcing themselves, we devise a modular framework to simulate idealised monsoons at convection-permitting resolution with the WRF model, in a domain based on an aquapatch (mini-aquaplanet), but in which we can gradually add more realistic components, such as an interactive land surface. The model is forced by a season-dependent meridional contrast of surface temperature, with comprehensive physics and rotation. We compare a series of aquapatch experiments with increasingly intense smooth sea surface temperature forcings with another series including land with increasingly sharp surface temperature contrasts at the land-ocean interface.

 

By relating forcing to responses, we aim to describe the non-linearity of the relationship between surface temperature gradient (or surface Moist Static Energy (MSE) gradient, or low-level wind), and precipitation intensity (or monsoonal precipitation surface area, or monsoon onset timing). This should help clarify the actual role that surface temperature and MSE gradients play in controlling monsoon precipitation, and could potentially hint at the effect of climate change on monsoons.

How to cite: Colin, M., Haerter, J. O., and Dixit, V.: Relationship between surface thermodynamic contrasts and precipitation intensity in idealised monsoon simulations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12004, 2022.

EGU22-12069 | Presentations | AS1.18

Orographic rainfall processes in India – results from the IMPROVE project 

Andrew Turner, Kieran Hunt, Jayesh Phadtare, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Subrata Kumar Das, Sachin Deshpande, Jennifer Fletcher, Mahesh Kalshetti, Arathy Menon, Andrew Ross, Reinhard Schiemann, Thorwald Stein, and Utsav Bhowmik

Regional orography around India exerts a profound control on weather and climate, both in summer and winter as part of the diurnal cycle of convection, as well as in extreme events.  This poster summarizes the key results of the Indo-UK IMPROVE project (Indian Monsoon Precipitation over Orography: Verification and Enhancement of understanding).  IMPROVE considers two focal regions.  The Western Ghats intercept the monsoon flow across the Arabian Sea and receive some of the most frequent and heaviest summer rainfall, including being subject to extremes such as the 2018 Kerala floods.  Meanwhile, the Himalayas play a vital role in separating dry midlatitude flows from tropical airmasses in summer, while suffering extremes in winter due to western disturbances - cyclonic storms propagating on the subtropical westerly jet. 

We examine the impact of orography on the observed convective diurnal cycle and assess its simulation in models at a range of resolutions including convection-permitting scales.  MetUM and WRF model experiments, in addition to DWR retrievals, are used to identify key mechanisms between forcing at the large scale from the BSISO and newly identified regimes of on- and offshore convection near the Western Ghats.  An additional aspect to this work is consideration of a novel Froude number approach for understanding the convective regimes.  Secondly, the role of orography in extreme events is considered, including its interactions between passing tropical depressions or western disturbances.  Finally, land-atmosphere interactions occurring during the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Western Ghats and Himalayas regions are discussed.  IMPROVE works towards a deeper understanding of orographic rainfall and its extremes over India and uncovering why such mechanisms may be poorly represented in models.

How to cite: Turner, A., Hunt, K., Phadtare, J., Chattopadhyay, R., Das, S. K., Deshpande, S., Fletcher, J., Kalshetti, M., Menon, A., Ross, A., Schiemann, R., Stein, T., and Bhowmik, U.: Orographic rainfall processes in India – results from the IMPROVE project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12069, 2022.

In a continuing warming climate, it is necessary to understand how the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) will respond to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other dominant Non-ENSO climate patterns. Using several coupled climate models participated in the CMIP6 simulations, we show that the frequency of droughts and floods is similar in these models either in the historical or future scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, ssp585). This symmetry is unlike the observation where droughts are more frequent and vigorous than floods. We show that while the number of ENSO years is projected to increase with raised CO2 forcings, the fraction of ENSO and Non-ENSO years experiencing extremes of ISM remain relatively constant. However, the future scenarios indicate more frequent La Nina-related floods than the historical period. We show that most models do not capture the observed spatial maps of vertically integrated moisture flux during Non-ENSO ISM extreme years. While in the observation, a stronger role is played by the climate of the Arabian Sea and West Asia, most models are driven by the climate of the western North Pacific Ocean during non-ENSO ISM extremes. Our results indicate changes in the future teleconnection pattern during Non-ENSO related ISM extremes. These results call for special attention for model diagnosis and development for a better seasonal prediction.

How to cite: Chakraborty, A.: On the present and future teleconnection to the Indian summer monsoon in CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12204, 2022.

The Indian summer monsoon is a key meteorological event in the Indian calendar, bringing approximately 80% of India’s annual rainfall over the months of June—September. How the monsoon system will react to a changing future climate is of crucial importance for India’s agriculture, industry and economy.

 

Uncertainty remains in the future climate projections of the Indian monsoon,  primarily due to uncertainties in the amount and composition of aerosols over the Asian region. A further complication is that greenhouse gases, expected to increase over the next 50 years and dominate over aerosol forcing, have a directly competing effect on the monsoon. Generally, greenhouse gases act to heat the Earth’s surface, enabling greater moisture uptake and enhancing monsoonal precipitation. In contrast, aerosols have a cooling effect at the surface. The presence of aerosols is analogous to anomalous heating in the mid-troposphere, increasing the static stability of the atmosphere, which is associated with a weakening of the large-scale circulation and thus a weakening of the monsoon. 

 

We use the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), an intermediate complexity climate model, to investigate the interplay between varying aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing, in relation to the Indian summer monsoon. The model is modified to include anomalous heating in the mid-troposphere, which represents the presence of aerosols and effectively cools the surface. Varying the intensity and location of aerosol forcing, as well doubling the amount of carbon dioxide, alters the spatial pattern of precipitation over the Asian region. Increasing the anomalous heating to 150 Watts and applying over the regions of India, East China and Southeast Asia, significantly weakens the large-scale circulation and reduces the summer precipitation to 10-20% of a normal year; essentially a breakdown of the monsoon system. Through modelling sensitivity studies, we define a safe operating space of future climate conditions, where the Indian and East Asian monsoons retain their current regimes. We can also show early warning signals in the precipitation intensity, indicating a phase change of the Indian or the East Asian monsoon.

How to cite: Recchia, L. and Lucarini, V.: Effect of varying aerosol forcing on the Indian summer monsoon in an intermediate complexity climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12436, 2022.

EGU22-13381 | Presentations | AS1.18 | Highlight

The influence of cold SST anomalies surrounding the Maritime Continent on the El Niño-Indian monsoon teleconnection 

Ben Webber, Umakanth Uppara, Manoj Joshi, and Andrew Turner

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation is known to be influenced by both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). El Niño events often coincide with droughts in the ISM region, yet there is considerable variability in the ISM response, partially due to coincident IOD events. However, it is unclear how SST patterns associated with different El Niño types combine with IOD-related SST anomalies to produce the ISM response. Here we use an atmospheric general circulation model forced by combinations of regional SST anomalies in both Pacific and Indian Oceans during the developing phase of El Niño (i.e., the ISM season prior to peak ENSO SST anomalies) to identify interactions in the teleconnection pathways. We find that the responses combine in a strongly non-linear manner. Consistent with previous studies, we find that IOD events largely counteract the influence of ENSO events, but also that this interaction depends on the pattern and magnitude of SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean. The impact on the ISM depends substantially on the details of the SST gradients, especially in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent where relatively minor differences in the pattern of cold SSTs and associated gradients generate regional circulation patterns that interfere with the large-scale teleconnection pathways. When combined with cold IOD SST anomalies, the influence of Eastern Pacific El Niño events on the ISM is smaller than the influence of Central Pacific El Niño events. Small differences in SST patterns and associated gradients can have substantial impacts on ISM precipitation anomalies, which may contribute to the observed variability in the ISM response to ENSO events, and as such are worthy of further research.

How to cite: Webber, B., Uppara, U., Joshi, M., and Turner, A.: The influence of cold SST anomalies surrounding the Maritime Continent on the El Niño-Indian monsoon teleconnection, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13381, 2022.

EGU22-591 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Identifying precursors for extreme stratospheric polar vortex events  using an explainable neural network 

Zheng Wu, Tom Beucler, Raphaël de Fondeville, Eniko Székely, Guillaume Obozinski, William Ball, and Daniela Domeisen

The winter stratospheric polar vortex exhibits considerable variability in both magnitude and zonal wave structure, which arises in part from stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with tropospheric precursors and can result in extreme polar vortex events. These extremes can subsequently influence weather in the troposphere and thus are important sources of surface prediction. However, the predictability limit of these extreme events is around 1-2 weeks in the state-of-the-art prediction system. In order to explore and improve the predictability limit of the extreme vortex events, in this study, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to model stratospheric polar vortex anomalies and to identify strong and weak stratospheric vortex events. To pinpoint the origins of the stratospheric anomalies, we then employ two neural network visualization methods, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Layerwise Relevance Propagation (LRP), to uncover feature importance in the input variables (e.g., geopotential height and background zonal wind). The extreme vortex events can be identified by the ANN with an averaged accuracy of 60-80%. For the correctly identified extreme events, the composite of the feature importance of the input variables shows spatial patterns consistent with the precursors found for extreme stratospheric events in previous studies. This consistency provides confidence that the ANN is able to identify reliable indicators for extreme stratospheric vortex events and that it could help to identify the role of the previously found precursors, such as the sea level pressure anomalies associated with the Siberian high. In addition to the composite of all the events, the feature importance for each of the individual events further reveals the physical structures in the input variables (such as the locations of the geopotential height anomalies) that are specific to that event. Our results show the potential of explainable neural networks techniques in understanding and predicting the stratospheric variability and extreme events, and in searching for potential precursors for these events on subseasonal time scales. 

How to cite: Wu, Z., Beucler, T., de Fondeville, R., Székely, E., Obozinski, G., Ball, W., and Domeisen, D.: Identifying precursors for extreme stratospheric polar vortex events  using an explainable neural network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-591, 2022.

EGU22-676 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

A two-stage machine learning framework using global satellite data of cloud classes for process-oriented model evaluation 

Arndt Kaps, Axel Lauer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Pierre Gentine, Luis Gómez-Chova, and Veronika Eyring

Clouds play a key role in weather and climate but are quite challenging to simulate with global climate models as the relevant physics include non-linear processes on scales covering several orders of magnitude in both the temporal and spatial dimensions. The numerical representation of clouds in global climate models therefore requires a high degree of parameterization, which makes a careful evaluation a prerequisite not only for assessing the skill in reproducing observed climate but also for building confidence in projections of future climate change. Current methods to achieve this usually involve the comparison of multiple large-scale physical properties in the model output to observational data. Here, we introduce a two-stage data-driven machine learning framework for process-oriented evaluation of clouds in climate models based directly on widely known cloud types. The first step relies on CloudSat satellite data to assign cloud labels in line with cloud types defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to MODIS pixels using deep neural networks. Since the method is supervised and trained on labels provided by CloudSat, the predicted cloud types remain objective and do not require a posteriori labeling. The second step consists of a regression algorithm that predicts fractional cloud types from retrieved cloud physical variables. This step aims to ensure that the method can be used with any data set providing physical variables comparable to MODIS. In particular, we use a Random Forest regression that acts as a transfer model to evaluate the spatially relatively coarse output of climate models and allows the use of varying input features. As a proof of concept, the method is applied to coarse grained ESA Cloud CCI data. The predicted cloud type distributions are physically consistent and show the expected features of the different cloud types. This demonstrates how advanced observational products can be used with this method to obtain cloud type distributions from coarse data, allowing for a process-based evaluation of clouds in climate models.

How to cite: Kaps, A., Lauer, A., Camps-Valls, G., Gentine, P., Gómez-Chova, L., and Eyring, V.: A two-stage machine learning framework using global satellite data of cloud classes for process-oriented model evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-676, 2022.

EGU22-696 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder: a novel method for estimating dynamic precipitation at high resolution 

Christina Heinze-Deml, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, and Nicolai Meinshausen

A key challenge in climate science is to quantify the forced response in impact-relevant variables such as precipitation against the background of internal variability, both in models and observations. Dynamical adjustment techniques aim to remove unforced variability from a target variable by identifying patterns associated with circulation, thus effectively acting as a filter for dynamically induced variability. The forced contributions are interpreted as the variation that is unexplained by circulation. However, dynamical adjustment of precipitation at local scales remains challenging because of large natural variability and the complex, nonlinear relationship between precipitation and circulation particularly in heterogeneous terrain. 

In this talk, I will present the Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder (LLAAE), a novel statistical model that builds on variational autoencoders. The Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder enables estimation of the contribution of a coarse-scale atmospheric circulation proxy to daily precipitation at high resolution and in a spatially coherent manner. To predict circulation-induced precipitation, the LLAAE combines a linear component, which models the relationship between circulation and the latent space of an autoencoder, with the autoencoder's nonlinear decoder. The combination is achieved by imposing an additional penalty in the cost function that encourages linearity between the circulation field and the autoencoder's latent space, hence leveraging robustness advantages of linear models as well as the flexibility of deep neural networks. 

We show that our model predicts realistic daily winter precipitation fields at high resolution based on a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model at 12 km resolution over Europe, capturing, for instance, key orographic features and geographical gradients. Using the Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder to remove the dynamic component of precipitation variability, forced thermodynamic components are expected to remain in the residual, which enables the uncovering of forced precipitation patterns of change from just a few ensemble members. We extend this to quantify the forced pattern of change conditional on specific circulation regimes. 

Future applications could include, for instance, weather generators emulating climate model simulations of regional precipitation, detection and attribution at subcontinental scales, or statistical downscaling and transfer learning between models and observations to exploit the typically much larger sample size in models compared to observations.

How to cite: Heinze-Deml, C., Sippel, S., Pendergrass, A. G., Lehner, F., and Meinshausen, N.: Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder: a novel method for estimating dynamic precipitation at high resolution, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-696, 2022.

EGU22-722 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Climate-Invariant, Causally Consistent Neural Networks as Robust Emulators of Subgrid Processes across Climates 

Tom Beucler, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Veronika Eyring, Michael Pritchard, Jakob Runge, and Pierre Gentine

Data-driven algorithms, in particular neural networks, can emulate the effects of unresolved processes in coarse-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) if trained on high-resolution simulation or observational data. However, they can (1) make large generalization errors when evaluated in conditions they were not trained on; and (2) trigger instabilities when coupled back to ESMs.

First, we propose to physically rescale the inputs and outputs of neural networks to help them generalize to unseen climates. Applied to the offline parameterization of subgrid-scale thermodynamics (convection and radiation) in three distinct climate models, we show that rescaled or "climate-invariant" neural networks make accurate predictions in test climates that are 8K warmer than their training climates. Second, we propose to eliminate spurious causal relations between inputs and outputs by using a recently developed causal discovery framework (PCMCI). For each output, we run PCMCI on the inputs time series to identify the reduced set of inputs that have the strongest causal relationship with the output. Preliminary results show that we can reach similar levels of accuracy by training one neural network per output with the reduced set of inputs; stability implications when coupled back to the ESM are explored.

Overall, our results suggest that explicitly incorporating physical knowledge into data-driven models of Earth system processes may improve their ability to generalize across climate regimes, while quantifying causal associations to select the optimal set of inputs may improve their consistency and stability.

How to cite: Beucler, T., Iglesias-Suarez, F., Eyring, V., Pritchard, M., Runge, J., and Gentine, P.: Climate-Invariant, Causally Consistent Neural Networks as Robust Emulators of Subgrid Processes across Climates, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-722, 2022.

EGU22-1065 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Skilful US Soy-yield forecasts at pre-sowing lead-times 

Sem Vijverberg, Dim Coumou, and Raed Hamed

Soy harvest failure events can severely impact farmers, insurance companies and raise global prices. Reliable seasonal forecasts of mis-harvests would allow stakeholders to prepare and take appropriate early action. However, especially for farmers, the reliability and lead-time of current prediction systems provide insufficient information to justify for within-season adaptation measures. Recent innovations increased our ability to generate reliable statistical seasonal forecasts. Here, we combine these innovations to predict the 1-3 poor soy harvest years in eastern US. We first use a clustering algorithm to spatially aggregate crop producing regions within the eastern US that are particularly sensitive to hot-dry weather conditions. Next, we use observational climate variables (sea surface temperature (SST) and soil moisture) to extract precursor timeseries at multiple lags. This allows the machine learning model to learn the low-frequency evolution, which carries important information for predictability. A selection based on causal inference allows for physically interpretable precursors. We show that the robust selected predictors are associated with the evolution of the horseshoe Pacific SST pattern, in line with previous research. We use the state of the horseshoe Pacific to identify years with enhanced predictability. We achieve very high forecast skill of poor harvests events, even 3 months prior to sowing, using a strict one-step-ahead train-test splitting. Over the last 25 years, 90% of the predicted events in February were correct. When operational, this forecast would enable farmers (and insurance/trading companies) to make informed decisions on adaption measures, e.g., selecting more drought-resistant cultivars, invest in insurance, change planting management.

How to cite: Vijverberg, S., Coumou, D., and Hamed, R.: Skilful US Soy-yield forecasts at pre-sowing lead-times, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1065, 2022.

EGU22-1835 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Using Deep Learning for a High-Precision Analysis of Atmospheric Rivers in a High-Resolution Large Ensemble Climate Dataset 

Timothy Higgins, Aneesh Subramanian, Andre Graubner, Lukas Kapp-Schwoerer, Karthik Kashinath, Sol Kim, Peter Watson, Will Chapman, and Luca Delle Monache

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are elongated corridors of water vapor in the lower Troposphere that cause extreme precipitation over many coastal regions around the globe. They play a vital role in the water cycle in the western US, fueling most extreme west coast precipitation and sometimes accounting for more than 50% of total annual west coast precipitation (Gershunov et al. 2017). Severe ARs are associated with extreme flooding and damages while weak ARs are typically more beneficial to our society as they bring much needed drought relief.

Precipitation is particularly difficult to predict in traditional climate models.  Predicting water vapor is more reliable (Lavers et al. 2016), allowing IVT (integrated vapor transport) and ARs to be a favorable method for understanding changing patterns in precipitation (Johnson et al. 2009).  There are a variety of different algorithms used to track ARs due to their relatively diverse definitions (Shields et al. 2018). The Atmospheric River Tracking Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) organizes and provides information on all of the widely accepted algorithms that exist. Nearly all of the algorithms included in ARTMIP rely on absolute and relative numerical thresholds, which can often be computationally expensive and have a large memory footprint. This can be particularly problematic in large climate datasets. The vast majority of algorithms also heavily factor in wind velocity at multiple vertical levels to track ARs, which is especially difficult to store in climate models and is typically not output at the temporal resolution that ARs occur.

A recent alternative way of tracking ARs is through the use of machine learning. There are a variety of neural networks that are commonly applied towards identifying objects in cityscapes via semantic segmentation. The first of these neural networks that was applied towards detecting ARs is DeepLabv3+ (Prabhat et al. 2020). DeepLabv3+ is a state of the art model that demonstrates one of the highest performances of any present day neural network when tasked with the objective of identifying objects in cityscapes (Wu et al. 2019). We employ a light-weight convolutional neural network adapted from CGNet (Kapp-Schwoerer et al. 2020) to efficiently track these severe events without using wind velocity at all vertical levels as a predictor variable. When applied to cityscapes, CGNet's greatest advantage is its performance relative to its memory footprint (Wu et al. 2019). It has two orders of magnitude less parameters than DeepLabv3+ and is computationally less expensive. This can be especially useful when identifying ARs in large datasets. Convolutional neural networks have not been used to track ARs in a regional domain. This will also be the first study to demonstrate the performance of this neural network on a regional domain by providing an objective analysis of its consistency with eight different ARTMIP algorithms.

How to cite: Higgins, T., Subramanian, A., Graubner, A., Kapp-Schwoerer, L., Kashinath, K., Kim, S., Watson, P., Chapman, W., and Delle Monache, L.: Using Deep Learning for a High-Precision Analysis of Atmospheric Rivers in a High-Resolution Large Ensemble Climate Dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1835, 2022.

EGU22-2012 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Gap filling in air temperature series by matrix completion methods 

Benoît Loucheur, Pierre-Antoine Absil, and Michel Journée

Quality control of meteorological data is an important part of atmospheric analysis and prediction, as missing or erroneous data can have a negative impact on the accuracy of these environmental products.

In Belgium, the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) is the national meteorological service that provide weather and climate services based on observations and scientific research. RMI collects and archives meteorological observations in Belgium since the 19th century. Currently, air temperature is monitored in Belgium in about 30 synoptic automatic weather stations (AWS) as well as in 110 manual climatological stations. In the latter stations, a volunteer observer records every morning at 8 o'clock the daily extreme air temperatures. All observations are routinely checked for errors, inconsistencies and missing values by the RMI staff. Misleading data are corrected and gaps are filled by estimations. This quality control tasks require a lot of human intervention. With the forthcoming deployment of low-cost weather stations and the subsequent increase in the volume of data to verify, the process of data quality control and completion should become as automated as much as possible.

In this work, the quality control process is fully automated by using mathematical tools. We present low-rank matrix completion methods (LRMC) that we used to solve the problem of completing missing data in daily minimum and maximum temperature series. We used a machine learning technique called Monte Carlo cross-validation to train our algorithms and then test them in a real case.

Among the matrix completion methods, some are regularised by graphs. In our case, it is then possible to represent the spatial and temporal component via graphs. By manipulating the construction of these graphs, we hope to improve the completion results. We were then able to compare our methods with what is done in the state of the art, such as the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method.

All our experiments were performed with a dataset provided by the RMI, including daily minimum and maximum temperature measurements from 100 stations over the period 2005-2019.

How to cite: Loucheur, B., Absil, P.-A., and Journée, M.: Gap filling in air temperature series by matrix completion methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2012, 2022.

EGU22-2248 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Exploring flooding mechanisms and their trends in Europe through explainable AI 

Shijie Jiang, Yi Zheng, and Jakob Zscheischler

Understanding the mechanisms causing river flooding and their trends is important to interpret past flood changes and make better predictions of future flood conditions. However,  there is still a lack of quantitative assessment of trends in flooding mechanisms based on observations. Recent years have witnessed the increasing prevalence of machine learning in hydrological modeling and its predictive power has been demonstrated in numerous studies. Machine learning makes hydrological predictions by recognizing generalizable relationships between inputs and outputs, which, if properly interpreted, may provide us further scientific insights into hydrological processes. In this study, we propose a new method using interpretive machine learning to identify flooding mechanisms based on the predictive relationship between precipitation and temperature and flow peaks. Applying this method to more than a thousand catchments in Europe reveals three primary input-output patterns within flow predictions, which can be associated with three catchment-wide flooding mechanisms: extreme precipitation, soil moisture excess, and snowmelt. The results indicate that approximately one-third of the studied catchments are controlled by a combination of the above mechanisms, while others are mostly dominated by one single mechanism. Although no significant shifts from one dominant mechanism to another are observed for the catchments over the past seven decades overall, some catchments with single mechanisms have become dominated by mixed mechanisms and vice versa. In particular, snowmelt-induced floods have decreased significantly in general, whereas rainfall has become more dominant in causing floods, and their effects on flooding seasonality and magnitude are crucial. ​Overall, this study provides a new perspective for understanding climatic extremes and demonstrates the prospect of artificial intelligence(AI)-assisted scientific discovery in the future.

How to cite: Jiang, S., Zheng, Y., and Zscheischler, J.: Exploring flooding mechanisms and their trends in Europe through explainable AI, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2248, 2022.

EGU22-2391 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Exploring cirrus cloud microphysical properties using explainable machine learning 

Kai Jeggle, David Neubauer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Hanin Binder, Michael Sprenger, and Ulrike Lohmann

Cirrus cloud microphysics and their interactions with aerosols remain one of the largest uncertainties in global climate models and climate change projections. The uncertainty originates from the high spatio-temporal variability and their non-linear dependence on meteorological drivers like temperature, updraft velocities, and aerosol environment. We combine ten years of CALIPSO/CloudSat satellite observations of cirrus clouds with ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data of meteorological and aerosol variables to create a spatial data cube. Lagrangian back trajectories are calculated for each cirrus cloud observation to add a temporal dimension to the data cube. We then train a gradient boosted tree machine learning (ML) model to predict vertically resolved cirrus cloud microphysical properties (i.e. observed ice crystal number concentration and ice water content). The explainable machine learning method of SHAP values is applied to assess the impact of individual cirrus drivers as well as combinations of drivers on cirrus cloud microphysical properties in varying meteorological conditions. In addition, we analyze how the impact of the drivers differs regionally, vertically, and temporally.

We find that the tree-based ML model is able to create a good mapping between cirrus drivers and microphysical properties (R² ~0.75) and the SHAP value analysis provides detailed insights in how different drivers impact the prediction of the microphysical cirrus cloud properties. These findings can be used to improve global climate model parameterizations of cirrus cloud formation in future works. Our approach is a good example for exploring unsolved scientific questions using explainable machine learning and feeding back insights to the domain science.

How to cite: Jeggle, K., Neubauer, D., Camps-Valls, G., Binder, H., Sprenger, M., and Lohmann, U.: Exploring cirrus cloud microphysical properties using explainable machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2391, 2022.

Global circulation models (GCMs) form the basis of a vast portion of earth system research and inform our climate policy. However, our climate system is complex and connected across scales. To simulate it, we must use parameterisations. These parameterisations, which are present in all models, can have a detectable influence on the GCM outputs.

GCMs are improving, but we need to use their current output to optimally estimate the risks of extreme weather. Therefore, we must debias GCM outputs with respect to observations. Current debiasing methods cannot correct both spatial correlations and cross-variable correlations. This limitation means current methods can produce physically implausible weather events - even when the single-location, single-variable distributions match the observations. This limitation is very important for extreme event research. Compound events like heat and drought, which drastically increase wildfire risk, and spatially co-occurring events like multiple bread-basket failures, are not well corrected by these current methods.

We propose using unsupervised image-to-image translations networks to perform bias correction of GCMs. These neural network architectures are used to translate (perform bias correction) between different image domains. For example, they have been used to translate computer-generated city scenes into real-world photos, which requires spatial and cross-variable correlations to be translated. Crucially, these networks learn to translate between image domains without requiring corresponding pairs of images. Such pairs cannot be generated between climate simulations and observations due to the inherent chaos of weather.

In this work, we use these networks to bias correct historical recreation simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 atmosphere-only GCM with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. This GCM has a known bias in simulating the South Asian monsoon, and so we focus on this region. We show the ability of neural networks to correct this bias, and show how combining the neural network with classical techniques produces a better bias correction than either method alone. 

How to cite: Fulton, J. and Clarke, B.: Correcting biases in climate simulations using unsupervised image-to-image-translation networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2988, 2022.

EGU22-3009 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Application of Machine Learning for spatio-temporal mapping of the air temperature in Warsaw 

Amirhossein Hassani, Núria Castell, and Philipp Schneider

Mapping the spatio-temporal distribution of near-surface urban air temperature is crucial to our understanding of climate-sensitive epidemiology, indoor-outdoor thermal comfort, urban biodiversity, and interactive impacts of climate change and urbanity. Urban-scale decision-making in face of future climatic uncertainties requires detailed information on near-surface air temperature at high spatio-temporal resolutions. However, reaching such fine resolutions cannot be currently realised by traditional observation networks, or even by regional or global climate models (Hamdi et al. 2020). Given the complexity of the processes affecting air temperature at the urban scale to the regional scale, here we apply Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, in particular, XGBoost gradient boosting method to build predictive models of near surface air temperature (Ta at 2-meter height). These predictive models establish data-driven relations between crowd-sourced measured Ta (data produced by citizens’ sensors) and a set of spatial and spatio-temporal predictors, primarily derived from Earth Observation satellite data including Modis Aqua/Landsat 8 Land Surface Temperature (LST), Modis Terra vegetative indices, and Sentinel-2 water vapour product. We use our models to predict sub-daily (at Modis Aqua satellite passing times) variation in urban scale Ta in city of Warsaw, Poland at spatial resolution of 1 km for the months July-September and the years 2016 to 2021. A 10-fold cross-validation of the developed models shows a root mean square error between 0.97 and 1.02 °C and a coefficient of determination between 0.96 and 0.98, which are satisfactory according to the literature (Taheri-Shahraiyni and Sodoudi 2017). The resulting maps allow us to identify regions of Warsaw that are vulnerable to heat stress. The strength of the method used here is that it can be easily replicated in other EU cities to achieve high resolution maps due to the accessibility and open-sourced nature of the training and predictor data. Contingent on data availability, the predictive framework developed also can be used for monitoring and downscaling of other urban governing climatic parameters such as relative humidity in the context of future climate uncertainties.

Hamdi, R., H. Kusaka, Q.-V. Doan, P. Cai, H. He, G. Luo, W. Kuang, S. Caluwaerts, F. Duchêne, B. J. E. S. Van Schaeybroek and Environment (2020). "The state-of-the-art of urban climate change modeling and observations." 1-16.

Taheri-Shahraiyni, H. and S. J. T. S. Sodoudi (2017). "High-resolution air temperature mapping in urban areas: A review on different modelling techniques."  21(6 Part A): 2267-2286.

How to cite: Hassani, A., Castell, N., and Schneider, P.: Application of Machine Learning for spatio-temporal mapping of the air temperature in Warsaw, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3009, 2022.

The interdisciplinary research project "BayTreeNet" investigates the reactions of forest ecosystems to current climate dynamics. In the mid-latitudes, local climatic phenomena often show a strong dependence on the large-scale climate dynamics, the weather types (WT), which significantly determine the climate of a region through frequency and intensity. In the topographically diverse region of Bavaria, different WT show various weather conditions at different locations.

The meaning of every WT is explained for the different forest regions in Bavaria and the results of the climate dynamics sub-project provide the physical basis for the "BayTreeNet" project. Subsequently, climate-growth relationships are established in the dendroecology sub-project to investigate the response of forests to individual WT at different forest sites. Complementary steps allow interpretation of results for the past (20th century) and projection into the future (21st century). One hypothesis to be investigated is that forest sites in Bavaria are affected by a significant influence of climate change in the 21st century and the associated change in WT.

The automated classification of large-scale weather patterns is presented by Self-Organizing-Maps (SOM) developed by Kohonen, which enables visualization and reduction of high-dimensional data. The poster presents the evaluation and selection of an appropriate SOM-setting and its first results. Besides, it is planned to show first analyses of the environmental conditions of the different WT and how these are represented in global climate models (GCMs) in the past and future.

How to cite: Wehrmann, S. and Mölg, T.: Classifying weather types in Europe by Self-Organizing-Maps (SOM) with regard to GCM-based future projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3105, 2022.

EGU22-3482 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Public perception assessment on climate change and natural disaster influence using social media big-data: A case study of USA 

SungKu Heo, Pouya Ifaei, Mohammad Moosazadeh, and ChangKyoo Yoo

Climate change is a global crisis to the world which influences the human race and society's development. Threatens of climate change have become increasingly recognized to the public and government in both environments, society, and economy across the globe; because the consequence of climate change is not only shown up as the increasing of global temperature, also expressed in an intensive natural hazard, such as floods, droughts, wildfires, and hurricanes. For the sustainability development in the globe, it is crucial to provide a response to mitigating climate change through the government’s policy and decision-making; however, the public's engagement in the actions towards the critical environmental crisis still needs to be largely promoted. Analyzing the relationship between the public awareness of climate change and natural disasters is an essential aspect in climate change mitigation and policymaking. In this study, based on the abundance of the text message in social media, especially Twitter, the public understanding and discussions upon climate change from the surrounding environment was recognized and analyzed through the human as the sensor which receiving information of climate change. Twitter content analysis and filed data impact analysis were conducted; text mining algorithms are implemented in the Twitter big-data information to find the similarity based on a cosine similarity score (CSS) between the climate change corpus and the natural events corpora. Then, the factors of nature disaster influence were predicted utilizing a multiple linear regression model and climate change tweets dataset. This research shows that the public is more pretend to link the natural events with climate change when they tweeting when serious natural disasters happened. The developed regression model indicated that natural events caused by the consequence of climate change influenced the people’s social media activity through messages on Twitter with having the awareness of climate change. From this study, the results indicated that the public experience of natural events including intensive disasters can lead them to link the climate change with the natural events easily; when compared with the people who rarely experience natural events.

Acknowledgment

This research was supported by the project (NRF-2021R1A2C2007838) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) and the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as Graduate school specialized in Climate Change.

How to cite: Heo, S., Ifaei, P., Moosazadeh, M., and Yoo, C.: Public perception assessment on climate change and natural disaster influence using social media big-data: A case study of USA, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3482, 2022.

EGU22-4431 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Identification of Global Drivers of Indian Summer Monsoon using Causal Inference and Interpretable AI 

Deepayan Chakraborty, Adway Mitra, Bhupendranath Goswami, and Pv Rajesh

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is a complex phenomenon that depends on several climatic phenomena at different parts of the word through teleconnections. Each season is characterized by extended periods of wet and dry spells (which may cause floods or droughts) which contribute to intra-seasonal variability. Tropical and extra-tropical drivers jointly influence the intra-seasonal variability. Although El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be a driver of ISMR, researchers have also found its relation with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In this work, we use ideas from Causality Theory and Explainable Machine Learning to quantify the influence of different climatic phenomena on the intraseasonal variation of ISMR.

To identify such causal relations, we applied two statistically sound causal inference approaches, i.e., PCMCI+ Algorithm (Conditional Independence based) and Granger Causal test (Regression-based).  For the Granger causality test, we have examined separately for both linear and non-linear regression. In case of PCMCI+, conditional independence tests were used between pairs of variables at different "lag periods". It is worth pointing out that, till now “causality” is not properly quantified in the Climate Science community and only linear correlations are used as a basis to identify relationships like ENSO-ISMR and AMO-ISMR. We performed experiments on mean monthly rainfall anomaly data (during the monsoon months of June-September over India) along with six probable drivers (ENSO, AMO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Nino, and Indian Ocean Dipole) for May, June, July, August, September months during the period 1861-2016. While the two approaches produced some contradictions, they also produced a common conclusion that ENSO and AMO are equally important and independent drivers of ISMR. 

Additionally, we have studied the contribution of the drivers on annual extremes of ISMR (years of deficient and excess rainfall) using Shapley values based on the concept of Game Theory to quantify the contributions of different predictors in a model. In this work, we train a XGBoost model to predict the ISMR anomaly from any values of the predictor variables. The experiment is carried out in two approaches. One approach involves analyzing the contribution of each driver for each of the ISMR months of any year on the mean seasonal rainfall anomaly of that year. Another approach focuses on the contribution of the seasonal mean value of each driver on the same. In both approaches, we analyze the distribution of each driver’s Shapley values for excess and deficient monsoon years for contrast. We find that while ENSO is indeed the dominant driving factor for a majority of these years, AMO is another major factor which frequently contributes to such deficiencies, while Atlantic Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole too sometimes contribute. On the other hand, Indian Ocean Dipole seems to be a major contributor for several years of excess rainfall. As future work, we plan to carry out a robustness analysis of these results, and also examine the drivers of regional extremes.

How to cite: Chakraborty, D., Mitra, A., Goswami, B., and Rajesh, P.: Identification of Global Drivers of Indian Summer Monsoon using Causal Inference and Interpretable AI, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4431, 2022.

EGU22-4534 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Spatial multi-modality as a way to improve both performance and interpretability of deep learning models to reconstruct phytoplankton time-series in the global ocean 

Joana Roussillon, Jean Littaye, Ronan Fablet, Lucas Drumetz, Thomas Gorgues, and Elodie Martinez

Phytoplankton plays a key role in the carbon cycle and fuels marine food webs. Its seasonal and interannual variations are relatively well-known at global scale thanks to satellite ocean color observations that have been continuously acquired since 1997. However, the satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chl-a, a proxy of phytoplankton biomass) time series are still too short to investigate phytoplankton biomass low-frequency variability. Machine learning models such as support vector regression (SVR) or multi-layer perceptron (MLP) have recently proven to be an alternative approach to mechanistic ones to reconstruct Chl-a past signals (including periods before the satellite era) from physical predictors, but they remain unsatisfactory. In particular, the relationships between phytoplankton and its physical surrounding environment are not homogeneous in space, and training such models over the entire globe does not allow them to capture these regional specificities. Moreover, if the global ocean is commonly partitioned into biogeochemical provinces into which phytoplankton growth is supposed to be governed by similar processes, their time-evolving nature makes it difficult to impose a priori spatial constraints to restrict the learning phase on specific areas. Here, we propose to overcome this limitation by introducing spatial multi-modalities into a convolutional neural network (CNN). The latter can learn with no particular supervision several spatially weighted modes of variability. Each of them is associated with a CNN submodel trained in parallel, standing for a mode-specific response of phytoplankton biomass to the physical forcing. Beyond improving performance reconstruction, we will show that the learned spatial modes appear physically consistent and may help to get new insights into physical-biogeochemical processes controlling phytoplankton repartition at global scale.

How to cite: Roussillon, J., Littaye, J., Fablet, R., Drumetz, L., Gorgues, T., and Martinez, E.: Spatial multi-modality as a way to improve both performance and interpretability of deep learning models to reconstruct phytoplankton time-series in the global ocean, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4534, 2022.

EGU22-4584 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Super-Resolution based Deep Downscaling of Precipitation 

Sumanta Chandra Mishra Sharma and Adway Mitra

Downscaling is widely used to improve spatial resolution of meteorological variables. Broadly there are two classes of techniques used for downscaling i.e. dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling. Dynamical downscaling depends on the boundary conditions of coarse resolution global models like General Circulation Models (GCMs) for its operation whereas the statistical model tries to interpret the statistical relationship between the high-resolution and low-resolution data (Kumar et. al. 2021). With the rapid development of deep learning techniques in recent years, deep learning based super-resolution (SR) models have been designed for image processing and computer vision, for increasing the resolution of a given image. But many researchers from other fields have also adapted these techniques and achieved state-of-the-art performance in various domains. To the best of our knowledge, only a few works exist that have used the super-resolution methods in climate domain, for deep downscaling of precipitation data.

These super-resolution approaches mostly use convolutional neural networks (CNN) to accomplish their task. In CNN when we increase the depth of the model then there is a chance of information loss and error propagation (Vandal et.al.2017). To reduce this information loss, we have introduced residual-based deep downscaling models. These models have multiple residual blocks and skip connections between similar types of convolutional layers. The long skip connections in the model helps to reduce information loss in the network. These models take as input, data that is pre-upsampled by linear interpolation, and then improve the estimates of the pixel values.

In our experiments, we have focused on downscaling of rainfall over Indian landmass (for Indian summer monsoon rainfall) and for a region in the USA spanning the southeast CONUS and parts of its neighboring states that are present between the longitude 700 W to 1000 W and latitude 240 N to 400 N. The precipitation data for this task is collected from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, India, and NOAA Physical Science Laboratory. We have examined our model's predictive behavior and compared it with the existing super-resolution models like SRCNN and DeepSD, which have been earlier used for precipitation downscaling. In the DeepSD model, we have used the GTOPO30 land elevation data provided by USGS along with the precipitation data as input. All these models are trained and tested in both the geographical regions separately and it is found that the proposed model performs better than the existing models on multiple accuracy measures like PSNR, Correlation Coefficient, etc. for the specific region and scaling factor.

How to cite: Mishra Sharma, S. C. and Mitra, A.: Super-Resolution based Deep Downscaling of Precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4584, 2022.

EGU22-4853 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Can cloud properties provide information on surface wind variations using deep learning? 

Sebastiaan Jamaer, Jérôme Neirynck, and Nicole van Lipzig

Recent studies have shown that the increasing sizes of offshore wind farms can cause a reduced energy production through mesoscale interactions with the atmosphere. Therefore, accurate nowcasting of the energy yields of large offshore wind farms depend on accurate predictions of the large synoptic weather systems as well as accurate predictions of the smaller mesoscale weather systems. In general, global or regional forecasting models are very well suited to predict synoptic-scale weather systems. However, satellite or radar data can support the nowcasting of shorter, smaller-scale systems. 

In this work, a first step towards nowcasting of the mesoscale wind using satellite images has been taken, namely the coupling of the mesoscale wind component to cloud properties that are available from satellite images using a deep learning framework. To achieve this, a high-resolution regional atmospheric model (COSMO-CLM) was used to generate one year of high resolution cloud en hub-height wind data. From this wind data the mesoscale component was filtered out and used as target images for the deep learning model. The input images of the model were several cloud-related fields from the atmospheric model. The model itself was a Deep Convolutional Neural Network (a U-Net) which was trained to minimize the mean squared error. 

This analysis indicates that cloud information can be used to extract information about the mesoscale weather systems and could be used for nowcasting by using the trained U-Net as a basis for a temporal deep learning model. However, future validation with real-world data is still needed to determine the added value of such an approach.

How to cite: Jamaer, S., Neirynck, J., and van Lipzig, N.: Can cloud properties provide information on surface wind variations using deep learning?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4853, 2022.

EGU22-5058 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Can satellite images provide supervision for cloud systems characterization? 

Dwaipayan Chatterjee, Hartwig Deneke, and Susanne Crewell

With ever-increasing resolution, geostationary satellites are able to reveal the complex structure and organization of clouds. How cloud systems organize is important for the local climate and strongly connects to the Earth's response to warming through cloud system feedback.

Motivated by recent developments in computer vision for pattern analysis of uncurated images, our work aims to understand the organization of cloud systems based on high-resolution cloud optical depth images. We are exploiting the self-learning capability of a deep neural network to classify satellite images into different subgroups based on the distribution pattern of the cloud systems.

Unlike most studies, our neural network is trained over the central European domain, which is characterized by strong land surface type and topography variations. The satellite data is post-processed and retrieved at a higher spatio-temporal resolution (2 km, 5 min), enhanced by 66% compared to the current standard, equivalent to the future Meteosat third-generation satellite, which will be launched soon.

We show how recent advances in deep learning networks are used to understand clouds' physical properties in temporal and spatial scales. In a purely data-driven approach, we avoid the noise and bias obtained from human labeling, and with proper scalable techniques, it takes 0.86 ms and 2.13 ms to label an image at two different spatial configurations. We demonstrate explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), which helps gain trust for the neural network's performance.

To generalize the results, a thorough quantified evaluation is done on two spatial domains and two-pixel configurations (128x128, 64x64). We examine the uncertainty associated with distinct machine-detected cloud-pattern categories. For this, the learned features of the satellite images are extracted from the trained neural network and fed to an independent hierarchical - agglomerative algorithm. Therefore the work also explores the uncertainties associated with the automatic machine-detected patterns and how they vary with different cloud classification types.

How to cite: Chatterjee, D., Deneke, H., and Crewell, S.: Can satellite images provide supervision for cloud systems characterization?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5058, 2022.

Extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods or heatwaves, severely impact agricultural yield. However, crop yield failure may also be caused by the temporal or multivariate compounding of more moderate weather events. An example of such an occurrence is the phenomenon of 'false spring', where the combined effects of a warm interval in late winter followed by a period of freezing temperatures can result in severe damage to vegetation. Alternatively, multiple weather events may impact crops simultaneously, as with compound hot and dry weather conditions.

Machine learning techniques are able to learn highly complex and nonlinear relationships between predictors. Such methods have previously been used to explore the influence of monthly- or seasonally-aggregated weather data as well as predefined extreme event indicators on crop yield. However, as crop yield may be impacted by climatic variables at different temporal scales, interpretable machine learning methods that can extract relevant meteorological features from higher-resolution time series data are desirable.

In this study we test the ability of adaptations of random forest models to identify compound meteorological drivers of crop failure from simulated data. In particular, adaptations of random forest models capable of ingesting daily multivariate time series data and spatial information are used. First, we train models to extract useful features from daily climatic data and predict crop yield failure probabilities. Second, we use permutation feature importances and sequential feature selection to investigate weather events and time periods identified by the models as most relevant for crop yield failure prediction. Finally, we explore the interactions learned by the models between these selected meteorological drivers, and compare the outcomes for several global crop models. Ultimately, our goal is to present a robust and highly interpretable machine learning method that can identify critical weather conditions from datasets with high temporal and spatial resolution, and is therefore able to identify drivers of crop failure using relatively few years of data.

How to cite: Sweet, L. and Zscheischler, J.: Using interpretable machine learning to identify compound meteorological drivers of crop yield failure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5464, 2022.

EGU22-5756 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

The influence of meteorological parameters on wind speed extreme events:  A causal inference approach 

Katerina Hlavackova-Schindler (Schindlerova), Andreas Fuchs, Claudia Plant, Irene Schicker, and Rosmarie DeWit

Based on the ERA5  data of hourly  meteorological parameters [1], we investigate temporal effects of  12 meteorological parameters on  the extreme values occurring in  wind speed.  We approach the problem by using the Granger causal inference, namely by the heterogeneous graphical Granger model (HGGM) [2]. In contrary to the classical Granger model proposed for causal inference among Gaussian processes, the HGGM detects causal relations among time series with distributions from the exponential family, which includes a wider class of common distributions. In previous synthetic experiments, HGGM combined with the genetic algorithm search based on the minimum message length principle has been shown superior in precision over the baseline causal methods [2].  We investigate various experimental settings of all 12 parameters with respect to the wind extremes in various time intervals. Moreover, we compare the influence of various data preprocessing methods and evaluate the interpretability of the discovered causal connections based on meteorological knowledge.

[1] https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview

[2] Behzadi, S, Hlaváčková-Schindler, K., Plant, C. (2019) Granger causality for heterogeneous processes, In: Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. Springer, pp. 463-475.

[3] Hlaváčková-Schindler, K., Plant, C. (2020) Heterogeneous graphical Granger causality by minimum message length, Entropy, 22(1400). pp. 1-21 ISSN 1099-4300 MDPI (2020).

How to cite: Hlavackova-Schindler (Schindlerova), K., Fuchs, A., Plant, C., Schicker, I., and DeWit, R.: The influence of meteorological parameters on wind speed extreme events:  A causal inference approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5756, 2022.

EGU22-6093 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Machine learning to quantify cloud responses to aerosols from satellite data 

Jessenia Gonzalez, Odran Sourdeval, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Johannes Quaas

The Earth's radiation budget may be altered by changes in atmospheric composition or land use. This is called radiative forcing. Among the human-generated influences in radiative forcing, aerosol-cloud interactions are the least understood. A way to quantify a key uncertainty in this regard, the adjustment of cloud liquid water path (LWP), is by the ratio (sensitivity) of LWP to changes in cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). A key problem in quantifying this sensitivity from large-scale observations is that these two quantities are not retrieved by operational satellite products and are subject to large uncertainties. 

In this work, we use machine learning techniques to show that inferring LWP and Nd directly from satellite observation data may yield a better understanding of this relationship without using retrievals, which may lead to large and systematic uncertainties. In particular, we use supervised learning on the basis of available high-resolution ICON-LEM (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic Large Eddy Model) simulations from the HD(CP)² project (High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction) and forward-simulated radiances obtained from the radiative transfer modeling (RTTOV, Radiative Transfer for TOVS) which uses MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data as a reference. Usually, only two channels from the reflectance of MODIS can be used to estimate the LWP and Nd. However, having access to 36 bands allows us to exploit data and find other patterns to get these parameters directly from the observation space rather than from the retrievals. A machine learning model is used to create an emulator which approximates the Radiative Transfer Model, and another machine learning model to directly predict the sensitivity of LWP - Nd from the satellite observation data.

How to cite: Gonzalez, J., Sourdeval, O., Camps-Valls, G., and Quaas, J.: Machine learning to quantify cloud responses to aerosols from satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6093, 2022.

Microclimate is a relatively recent concept in atmospheric sciences, which started drawing attention of engineers and climatologists after proliferation of the open thermal (infrared, middle- and near-infrared) remote sensing instruments and high-resolution emissivity datasets. Rarely mentioned in the context of global climate change reversing, efficient management of microclimates nevertheless can be considered as a possible solution. Their function is bi-directional; On one hand, they can perform as ‘buffers’ by smoothing out effects of the already altered global climate on people and ecosystems, whilst also acting as the structural contributors to perturbations in the higher layers of the atmosphere. 

In the most abstract terms, microclimates tend to manifest themselves via land surface temperature conditions, which in turn are highly sensitive to the underlying land cover and use decisions. Forests are considered as the most efficient terrestrial carbon sinks and climate regulators, and various forms, configurations and continuity of logging can substantially alter the patterns of local temperature fluxes, precipitation and ecosystems. In this study we propose a novel heteroskedastic machine learning method, which can attribute localised forest loss patches due to industrial mining activity and estimate the resulting change in dynamics of the surrounding microclimate(s). 

How to cite: Tkachenko, N. and Garcia Velez, L.: Global attribution of microclimate dynamics to industrial deforestation sites using thermal remote sensing and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6466, 2022.

EGU22-6543 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

High-resolution hybrid spatiotemporal modeling of daily relative humidity across Germany for epidemiological research: a Random Forest approach 

Nikolaos Nikolaou, Laurens Bouwer, Mahyar Valizadeh, Marco Dallavalle, Kathrin Wolf, Massimo Stafoggia, Annette Peters, and Alexandra Schneider

Introduction: Relative humidity (RH) is a meteorological variable of great importance as it affects other climatic variables and plays a role in plant and animal life as well as in human comfort and well-being. However, the commonly used weather station observations are inefficient to represent the great spatiotemporal RH variability, leading to exposure misclassification and difficulties to assess local RH health effects. There is also a lack of high-resolution RH spatial datasets and no readily available methods for modeling humidity across space and time. To tackle these issues, we aimed to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of RH data in Germany, using remote sensing and machine learning (ML) modeling.

Methods: In this study, we estimated German-wide daily mean RH at 1km2 resolution over the period 2000-2020. We used several predictors from multiple sources, including DWD RH observations, Ta predictions as well as satellite-derived DEM, NDVI and the True Color band composition (bands 1, 4 and 3: red, green and blue). Our main predictor for estimating the daily mean RH was the daily mean Ta. We had already mapped daily mean Ta in 1km2 across Germany through a regression-based hybrid approach of two linear mixed models using land surface temperature. Additionally, a very important predictor was the date, capturing the day-to-day variation of the response-explanatory variables relationship. All these variables were included in a Random Forest (RF) model, applied for each year separately. We assessed the model’s accuracy via 10-fold cross-validation (CV). First internally, using station observations that were not used for the model training, and then externally in the Augsburg metropolitan area using the REKLIM monitoring network over the period 2015-2019.

Results: Regarding the internal validation, the 21-year overall mean CV-R2 was 0.76 and the CV-RMSE was 6.084%. For the model’s external performance, at the same day, we found CV-R2=0.75 and CV-RMSE=7.051% and for the 7-day average, CV-R2=0.81 and CV-RMSE=5.420%. Germany is characterized by high relative humidity values, having a 20-year average RH of 78.4%. Even if the annual country-wide averages were quite stable, ranging from 81.2% for 2001 to 75.3% for 2020, the spatial variability exceeded 15% annually on average. Generally, winter was the most humid period and especially December was the most humid month. Extended urban cores (e.g., from Stuttgart to Frankfurt) or individual cities as Munich were less humid than the surrounding rural areas. There are also specific spatial patterns for RH distribution, including mountains, rivers and coastlines. For instance, the Alps and the North Sea coast are areas with elevated RH.

Conclusion: Our results indicate that the applied hybrid RF model is suitable for estimating nationwide RH at high spatiotemporal resolution, achieving a strong performance with low errors. Our method contributes to an improved spatial estimation of RH and the output product will help us understand better the spatiotemporal patterns of RH in Germany. We also plan to apply other ML techniques and compare the findings. Finally, our dataset will be used for epidemiological analyses, but could also be used for other research questions.

How to cite: Nikolaou, N., Bouwer, L., Valizadeh, M., Dallavalle, M., Wolf, K., Stafoggia, M., Peters, A., and Schneider, A.: High-resolution hybrid spatiotemporal modeling of daily relative humidity across Germany for epidemiological research: a Random Forest approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6543, 2022.

EGU22-6958 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Causal Discovery in Ensembles of Climate Time Series 

Andreas Gerhardus and Jakob Runge

Understanding the cause and effect relationships that govern natural phenomena is central to the scientific inquiry. While being the gold standard for inferring causal relationships, there are many scenarios in which controlled experiments are not possible. This is for example the case for most aspects of Earth's complex climate system. Causal relationships then have to be learned from statistical dependencies in observational data, a task that is commonly referred to as (observational) causal discovery.

When applied to time series data for learning causal relationships in dynamical systems, methods for causal discovery face additional statistical challenges. This is so because, as licensed by an assumption of stationarity, samples are taken in a sliding window fashion and hence autocorrelated rather than iid. Moreover, strong autocorrelations also often occlude other relevant causal links. The recent PCMCI algorithm (Runge et al., 2019) and its variants PCMCI+ (Runge, 2020) and LPCMCI (Gerhardus and Runge, 2020) address and to some extent alleviate theses issues.

In this contribution we present the Ensemble-PCMCI method, an adaption of PCMCI (and its variants PCMCI+ and LPCMCI) to cases in which the data comprises several time series, i.e., measurements of several instances of the same underlying dynamical system. Samples can then be taken from these different time series instead of a in a sliding window fashion, thus avoiding the issue of autocorrelation and also allowing to relax the stationarity assumption. In particular, this opens the possibility to analyze temporal changes in the underlying causal mechanisms. A potential domain of application are ensemble forecasts.

Related references:
Jakob Runge et al. (2019). Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets. Science Advances 5 eaau4996.

Jakob Runge (2020). Discovering contemporaneous and lagged causal relations in autocorrelated nonlinear time series datasets. In Proceedings of the 36th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI). Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 124 1388–1397. PMLR.

Andreas Gerhardus and Jakob Runge (2020). High-recall causal discovery for autocorrelated time series with latent confounders. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 33 12615–12625. Curran Associates, Inc.

How to cite: Gerhardus, A. and Runge, J.: Causal Discovery in Ensembles of Climate Time Series, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6958, 2022.

EGU22-6998 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Inferring the Cloud Vertical Distribution from Geostationary Satellite Data 

Sarah Brüning, Holger Tost, and Stefan Niebler

Clouds and their radiative feedback mechanisms are of vital importance for the atmospheric cycle of the Earth regarding global weather today as well as climate changes in the future. Climate models and simulations are sensitive to the vertical distribution of clouds, emphasizing the need for broadly accessible fine resolution data. Although passive satellite sensors provide continuous cloud monitoring on a global scale, they miss the ability to infer physical properties below the cloud top. Active instruments like radar are particularly suitable for this task but lack an adequate spatio-temporal resolution. Here, recent advances in Deep-Learning models open up the possibility to transfer spatial information from a 2D towards a 3D perspective on a large-scale.

By an example period in 2017, this study aims to explore the feasibility and potential of neural networks to reconstruct the vertical distribution of volumetric radar data along a cloud’s column. For this purpose, the network has been tested on the Full Disk domain of a geostationary satellite with high spatio-temporal resolution data. Using raw satellite channels, spectral indices, and topographic data, we infer the 3D radar reflectivity from these physical predictors. First results demonstrate the network’s capability to reconstruct the cloud vertical distribution. Finally, the ultimate goal of interpolating the cloud column for the whole domain is supported by a considerably high accuracy in predicting the radar reflectivity. The resulting product can open up the opportunity to enhance climate models by an increased spatio-temporal resolution of 3D cloud structures.

How to cite: Brüning, S., Tost, H., and Niebler, S.: Inferring the Cloud Vertical Distribution from Geostationary Satellite Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6998, 2022.

EGU22-7011 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Unlocking the potential of ML for Earth and Environment researchers 

Tobias Weigel, Frauke Albrecht, Caroline Arnold, Danu Caus, Harsh Grover, and Andrey Vlasenko

This presentation reports on support done under the aegis of Helmholtz AI for a wide range of machine learning based solutions for research questions related to Earth and Environmental sciences. We will give insight into typical problem statements from Earth observation and Earth system modeling that are good candidates for experimentation with ML methods and report on our accumulated experience tackling such challenges with individual support projects. We address these projects in an agile, iterative manner and during the definition phase, we direct special attention towards assembling practically meaningful demonstrators within a couple of months. A recent focus of our work lies on tackling software engineering concerns for building ML-ESM hybrids.

Our implementation workflow covers stages from data exploration to model tuning. A project may often start with evaluating available data and deciding on basic feasibility, apparent limitations such as biases or a lack of labels, and splitting into training and test data. Setting up a data processing workflow to subselect and compile training data is often the next step, followed by setting up a model architecture. We have made good experience with automatic tooling to tune hyperparameters and test and optimize network architectures. In typical implementation projects, these stages may repeat many times to improve results and cover aspects such as errors due to confusing samples, incorporating domain model knowledge, testing alternative architectures and ML approaches, and dealing with memory limitations and performance optimization.

Over the past two years, we have supported Helmholtz-based researchers from many subdisciplines on making the best use of ML methods along with these steps. Example projects include wind speed regression on GNSS-R data, emulation of atmospheric chemistry modeling, Earth System model parameterizations with ML, marine litter detection, and rogue waves prediction. The poster presentation will highlight selected best practices across these projects. We are happy to share our experience as it may prove useful to applications in wider Earth System modeling. If you are interested in discussing your challenge with us, please feel free to chat with us.

How to cite: Weigel, T., Albrecht, F., Arnold, C., Caus, D., Grover, H., and Vlasenko, A.: Unlocking the potential of ML for Earth and Environment researchers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7011, 2022.

EGU22-7034 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Developing a new emergent constraint through network analysis 

Lucile Ricard, Athanasios Nenes, Jakob Runge, and Fabrizio Falasca

Climate sensitivity expresses how average global temperature responds to an increase in greenhouse gas concentration. It is a key metric to assess climate change, and to formulate policy decisions, but its estimation from the Earth System Models (ESM) provides a wide range: between 2.5 and 4.0 K based on the sixth assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To narrow down this spread, a number of observable metrics, called “emergent constraints” have been proposed, but often are based on relatively few parameters from a simulation – thought to express the “essence” of the climate simulation and its relationship with climate sensitivity. Many of the constraints to date however are model-dependent, therefore questionable in terms of their robustness.

We postulate that methods based on “holistic” consideration of the simulations and observations may provide more robust constraints; we also focus on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) ensembles as SST is a major driver of climate variability. To extract the essential patterns of SST variability, we use a knowledge discovery and network inference method, δ-Maps (Fountalis et al., 2016, Falasca et al, 2019), expanded to include a causal discovery algorithm (PCMCI) that relies on conditional independence testing, to capture the essential dynamics of the climate simulation on a functional graph and explore the true causal effects of the underlying dynamical system (Runge et al., 2019). The resulting networks are then quantitatively compared using network “metrics” that capture different aspects, including the regions of uniform behavior, how they alternate over time and the strength of association. These metrics are then compared between simulations, and observations and used as emergent constraints, called Causal Model Evaluation (CME).

We apply δ-Maps and CME to CMIP6 model SST outputs and demonstrate how the networks and related metrics can be used to assess the historical performance of CMIP models, and climate sensitivity. We start by comparing the CMIP6 simulations against CMIP5 models, by using the reanalysis dataset HadISST (Met Office Hadley Centre) as a proxy for observations. Each field is reduced to a network and then how similar they are with reanalysis SST. The CMIP6 historical networks are then compared against CMIP6 projected networks, build from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway ssp245 (“Middle of the road”) scenario. Comparing past and future SST networks help us to evaluate the extent to which climate warming is encompassed in the change overlying dynamical system of our networks. A large distance from network build over the past period to network build over a future scenario could be tightly related to a large temperature response to an increase of greenhouse gas emission, that is the way we define climate sensitivity. We finally give a new estimation of the climate sensitivity with a weighting scheme approach, derived from a combination of its performance metrics.

How to cite: Ricard, L., Nenes, A., Runge, J., and Falasca, F.: Developing a new emergent constraint through network analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7034, 2022.

EGU22-7355 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Combining cloud properties and synoptic observations to predict cloud base height using Machine Learning 

Julien Lenhardt, Johannes Quaas, and Dino Sejdinovic

Cloud base height (CBH) is an important geometric parameter of a cloud and shapes its radiative properties. The CBH is also further of practical interest in the aviation community regarding pilot visibility and aircraft icing hazards. While the cloud-top height has been successfully derived from passive imaging radiometers on satellites during recent years, the derivation of the CBH remains a more difficult challenge with these same retrievals.

In our study we combine surface observations and passive satellite remote-sensing retrievals to create a database of CBH labels and cloud properties to ultimately train a machine learning model predicting CBH. The labels come from the global marine meteorological observations dataset (UK Met Office, 2006) which consists of near-global synoptic observations made on sea. This data set provides information about CBH, cloud type, cloud cover and other meteorological surface quantities with CBH being the main interest here. The features based upon which the machine learning model is trained consist in different cloud-top and cloud optical properties (Level 2 products MOD06/MYD06 from the MODIS sensor) extracted on a 127km x 127km grid around the synoptic observation point. To study the large diversity in cloud scenes, an auto-encoder architecture is chosen. The regression task is then carried out in the modelled latent space which is output by the encoder part of the model. To account for the spatial relationships in our input data the model architecture is based on Convolutional Neural Networks. We define a study domain in the Atlantic ocean, around the equator. The combination of information from below and over the cloud could allow us to build a robust model to predict CBH and then extend predictions to regions where surface measurements are not available.

How to cite: Lenhardt, J., Quaas, J., and Sejdinovic, D.: Combining cloud properties and synoptic observations to predict cloud base height using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7355, 2022.

EGU22-8068 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Generative Adversarial Modeling of Tropical Precipitation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone 

Cody Nash, Balasubramanya Nadiga, and Xiaoming Sun

In this study we evaluate the use of generative adversarial networks (GANs) to model satellite-based estimates of precipitation conditioned on reanalysis temperature, humidity, wind, and surface latent heat flux.  We are interested in the climatology of precipitation and modeling it in terms of atmospheric state variables, in contrast to a weather forecast or precipitation nowcast perspective.  We consider a hierarchy of models in terms of complexity, including simple baselines, generalized linear models, gradient boosted decision trees, pointwise GANs and deep convolutional GANs. To gain further insight into the models we apply methods for analyzing machine learning models, including model explainability, ablation studies, and a diverse set of metrics for pointwise and distributional differences, including information theory based metrics.  We find that generative models significantly outperform baseline models on metrics based on the distribution of predictions, particularly in capturing the extremes of the distributions.  Overall, a deep convolutional model achieves the highest accuracy.  We also find that the relative importance of atmospheric variables and of their interactions vary considerably among the different models considered. 

How to cite: Nash, C., Nadiga, B., and Sun, X.: Generative Adversarial Modeling of Tropical Precipitation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8068, 2022.

EGU22-8130 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

A comparison of explainable AI solutions to a climate change prediction task 

Philine Lou Bommer, Marlene Kretschmer, Dilyara Bareeva, Kadircan Aksoy, and Marina Höhne

In climate change research we are dealing with a chaotic system, usually leading to huge computational efforts in order to make faithful predictions. Deep neural networks (DNNs) offer promising new approaches due to their computational efficiency and universal solution properties. However, despite the increase in successful application cases with DNNs, the black-box nature of such purely data-driven approaches limits their trustworthiness and therefore the useability of deep learning in the context of climate science.

The field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been established to enable a deeper understanding of the complex, highly-nonlinear methods and their predictions. By shedding light onto the reasons behind the predictions made by DNNs, XAI methods can serve as a support for researchers to reveal the underlying physical mechanisms and properties inherent in the studied data. Some XAI methods have already been successfully applied to climate science, however, no detailed comparison of their performances is available. As the number of XAI methods on the one hand, and DNN applications on the other hand are growing, a comprehensive evaluation is necessary in order to understand the different XAI methods in the climate context.

In this work we provide an overview of different available XAI methods and their potential applications for climate science. Based on a previously published climate change prediction task, we compare several explanation approaches, including model-aware (e.g. Saliency, IntGrad, LRP) and model-agnostic methods (e.g. SHAP). We analyse their ability to verify the physical soundness of the DNN predictions as well as their ability to uncover new insights into the underlying climate phenomena. Another important aspect we address in our work is the possibility to assess the underlying uncertainties of DNN predictions using XAI methods. This is especially crucial in climate science applications where uncertainty due to natural variability is usually large. To this end, we investigate the potential of two recently introduced XAI methods —UAI+ and NoiseGrad, which have been designed to include uncertainty information of the predictions into the explanations. We demonstrate that those XAI methods enable more stable explanations with respect to model noise and can further deal with uncertainties of network information. We argue that these methods are therefore particularly suitable for climate science application cases.

How to cite: Bommer, P. L., Kretschmer, M., Bareeva, D., Aksoy, K., and Höhne, M.: A comparison of explainable AI solutions to a climate change prediction task, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8130, 2022.

Despite the importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to the climate on decadal and multidecadal timescales, Earth System Models (ESM) exhibit large differences in their estimation of the amplitude and spectrum of its variability. In addition, observational data is sparse and before the onset of the current century, many reconstructions of the AMOC rely on linear relationships to the more readily observed surface properties of the Atlantic rather than the less explored deeper ocean. Yet, it is conceptually well established that the density distribution is dynamically closely related to the AMOC, and in this contribution, we investigate this connection in model simulations to identify which density information is necessary to reconstruct the AMOC. We chose to establish these links in a data-driven approach. 

We use simulations from a historically forced large ensemble as well as abruptly forced long term simulations with varying strength of forcing and therefore comprising vastly different states of the AMOC. In a first step, we train uncertainty-aware neural networks to infer the state of the AMOC from the density information at different layers in the North Atlantic. In a second step, we compare the performance of the trained neural networks across depth and with their linear counterparts in simulations that were not part of the training process. Finally, we investigate how the networks arrived at their specific prediction using Layer-Wise-Relevance Propagation (LRP), a recently developed technique that propagates relevance backwards through the network to the input density field, effectively filtering out important from unimportant information and identifying regions of high relevance for the reconstruction of the AMOC.

Our preliminary results show that in general, the information provided by only one density layer between the surface and 1100 m is sufficient to reconstruct the AMOC with high precision, and neural networks are capable of generalizing to unseen simulations. From the set of these neural networks trained on different layers, we choose the surface layer as well as one subsurface layer close to 1000 m for further investigation of their decision-making process using LRP. Our preliminary investigation reveals that the LRP in the subsurface layer identifies regions of potentially high physical relevance for the AMOC. By contrast, the regions identified in the surface layer show little physical relevance for the AMOC.

How to cite: Mayer, B., Barnes, E., Marotzke, J., and Baehr, J.: Reconstructing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Earth System Model simulations from density information using explainable machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8411, 2022.

EGU22-8454 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to downscale tropical cyclone precipitation. 

Emily Vosper, Dann Mitchell, Peter Watson, Laurence Aitchison, and Raul Santos-Rodriguez

Fluvial flood hazards from tropical cyclones (TCs) are frequently the leading cause of mortality and damages (Rezapour and Baldock, 2014). Accurately modeling TC precipitation is vital for studying the current and future impacts of TCs. However, general circulation models at typical resolution struggle to accurately reproduce TC rainfall, especially for the most extreme storms (Murakami et al., 2015). Increasing horizontal resolution can improve precipitation estimates (Roberts et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2021), but as these methods are computationally expensive there is a trade-off between accuracy and generating enough ensemble members to generate sufficient high impact, low probability events. Often, downscaling models are used as a computationally cheaper alternative. 

Here, we downscale TC precipitation data from 100 km to 10 km resolution using a generative adversarial network (GAN). Generative approaches have the potential to well reproduce the fine spatial detail and stochastic nature of precipitation (Ravuri et al., 2021). Using observational products for tracking (IBTrACS) and rainfall (MSWEP), we train our GAN over the historical period 1979 - 2020. We are interested in how well our model reproduces precipitation intensity and structure with a focus on the most extreme events, where models have traditionally struggled. 

Bibliography 

Murakami, H., et al., 2015. Simulation and Prediction of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model*. Journal of Climate, 28(23), pp.9058-9079. 

Ravuri, S., et al., 2021. Skilful precipitation nowcasting using deep generative models of radar. Nature, 597(7878), pp.672-677. 

Rezapour, M. and Baldock, T., 2014. Classification of Hurricane Hazards: The Importance of Rainfall. Weather and Forecasting, 29(6), pp.1319-1331. 

Roberts, M., et al., 2020. Impact of Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Simulation Using the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA Multimodel Ensemble. Journal of Climate, 33(7), pp.2557-2583. 

Zhang, W., et al., 2021. Tropical cyclone precipitation in the HighResMIP atmosphere-only experiments of the PRIMAVERA Project. Climate Dynamics, 57(1-2), pp.253-273. 

How to cite: Vosper, E., Mitchell, D., Watson, P., Aitchison, L., and Santos-Rodriguez, R.: Using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to downscale tropical cyclone precipitation., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8454, 2022.

EGU22-8499 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Matryoshka Neural Operators: Learning Fast PDE Solvers for Multiscale Physics 

Björn Lütjens, Catherine H. Crawford, Campbell Watson, Chris Hill, and Dava Newman

Running a high-resolution global climate model can take multiple days on the world's largest supercomputers. Due to the long runtimes that are caused by solving the underlying partial differential equations (PDEs), climate researchers struggle to generate ensemble runs that are necessary for uncertainty quantification or exploring climate policy decisions.

 

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) promise a solution: they can solve single instances of PDEs up to three orders of magnitude faster than traditional finite difference numerical solvers. However, most approaches in physics-informed machine learning learn the solution of PDEs over the full spatio-temporal domain, which requires infeasible amounts of training data, does not exploit knowledge of the underlying large-scale physics, and reduces model trust. Our philosophy is to limit learning to the hard-to-model parts. Hence, we are proposing a novel method called \textit{matryoshka neural operator} that leverages an old scheme called super-parametrizations developed in geophysical fluid dynamics. Using this scheme our proposed physics-informed architecture exploits knowledge of approximate large-scale dynamics and only learns the influence of small-scale dynamics onto large-scale dynamics, also called subgrid parametrizations.

 

Some work in geophysical fluid dynamics is conceptually similar, but fully relies on neural networks which can only operate on fixed grids (Gentine et al., 2018). We are the first to learn grid-independent subgrid parametrizations by leveraging neural operators that learn the dynamics in a grid-independent latent space. Neural operators can be seen as an extension of neural networks to infinite-dimensions: They encode infinite-dimensional inputs into a finite-dimensional representations, such as Eigen or Fourier modes, and learn the nonlinear temporal dynamics in the encoded state.

 

We demonstrate the neural operators for learning non-local subgrid parametrizations over the full large-scale domain of the two-scale Lorenz96 equation. We show that the proposed learning-based PDE solver is grid-independent, has quasilinear instead of quadratic complexity in comparison to a fully-resolving numerical solver, is more accurate than current neural network or polynomial-based parametrizations, and offers interpretability through Fourier modes.

 

Gentine, P., Pritchard, M., Rasp, S., Reinaudi, G., and Yacalis, G. (2018). Could machine learning break the convection parameterization deadlock? Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 5742– 5751. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078202

How to cite: Lütjens, B., Crawford, C. H., Watson, C., Hill, C., and Newman, D.: Matryoshka Neural Operators: Learning Fast PDE Solvers for Multiscale Physics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8499, 2022.

EGU22-8649 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Physically Based Deep Learning Framework to Model Intense Precipitation Events at Engineering Scales 

Bernardo Teufel, Fernanda Carmo, Laxmi Sushama, Lijun Sun, Naveed Khaliq, Stephane Belair, Asaad Yahia Shamseldin, Dasika Nagesh Kumar, and Jai Vaze

The high computational cost of super-resolution (< 250 m) climate simulations is a major barrier for generating climate change information at such high spatial and temporal resolutions required by many sectors for planning local and asset-specific climate change adaptation strategies. This study couples machine learning and physical modelling paradigms to develop a computationally efficient simulator-emulator framework for generating super-resolution climate information. To this end, a regional climate model (RCM) is applied over the city of Montreal, for the summers of 2015 to 2020, at 2.5 km (i.e., low resolution – LR) and 250 m (i.e., high resolution – HR), which is used to train and validate the proposed super-resolution deep learning (DL) model. In the field of video super-resolution, convolutional neural networks combined with motion compensation have been used to merge information from multiple LR frames to generate high-quality HR images. In this study, a recurrent DL approach based on passing the generated HR estimate through time helps the DL model to recreate fine details and produce temporally consistent fields, resembling the data assimilation process commonly used in numerical weather prediction. Time-invariant HR surface fields and storm motion (approximated by RCM-simulated wind) are also considered in the DL model, which helps further improve output realism. Results suggest that the DL model is able to generate HR precipitation estimates with significantly lower errors than other methods used, especially for intense short-duration precipitation events, which often occur during the warm season and are required to evaluate climate resiliency of urban storm drainage systems. The generic and flexible nature of the developed framework makes it even more promising as it can be applied to other climate variables, periods and regions.

How to cite: Teufel, B., Carmo, F., Sushama, L., Sun, L., Khaliq, N., Belair, S., Shamseldin, A. Y., Nagesh Kumar, D., and Vaze, J.: Physically Based Deep Learning Framework to Model Intense Precipitation Events at Engineering Scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8649, 2022.

EGU22-8656 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Conditional normalizing flow for predicting the occurrence of rare extreme events on long time scales 

Jakob Kruse, Beatrice Ellerhoff, Ullrich Köthe, and Kira Rehfeld

The socio-economic impacts of rare extreme events, such as droughts, are one of the main ways in which climate affects humanity. A key challenge is to quantify the changing risk of once-in-a-decade or even once-in-a-century events under global warming, while leaning heavily on comparatively short observation spans. The predictive power of classical statistical methods from extreme value theory (EVT) often remains limited to uncorrelated events with short return periods. This is mainly due to their strong assumption of an underlying exponential family distribution of the variable in question. Standard EVT is therefore at odds with the rich and large-scale correlations found in various surface climate parameters such as local temperatures, as well as the more complex shape of empirical distributions. Here, we turn to recent developments in machine learning, namely to conditional normalizing flows, which are flexible neural networks for modeling highly-correlated unknown distributions. Given a short time series, we show how such networks can model the posterior probability of events whose return periods are much longer than the observation span. The necessary correlations and patterns can be extracted from a paired set of inputs, i.e. time series, and outputs, i.e. return periods. To evaluate this approach in a controlled setting, we generate synthetic training data by sampling temporally autoregressive processes with a non-trivial covariance structure. We compare the results to a baseline analysis using EVT. In this work, we focus on the prediction of return periods of rare statistical events. However, we expect the same potential for a wide range of statistical measures, such as the power spectrum and rate functions. Future work should also investigate its applicability to compound and spatially extended events, as well as changing conditions under warming scenarios.

How to cite: Kruse, J., Ellerhoff, B., Köthe, U., and Rehfeld, K.: Conditional normalizing flow for predicting the occurrence of rare extreme events on long time scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8656, 2022.

EGU22-8848 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Defining regime specific cloud sensitivities using the learnings from machine learning 

Alyson Douglas and Philip Stier

Clouds remain a core uncertainty in quantifying Earth’s climate sensitivity due to their complex dynamical and microphysical  interactions with multiple components of the Earth system. Therefore it is pivotal to observationally constrain possible cloud changes in a changing climate in order to evaluate our current generation of Earth system models by a set of physically realistic sensitivities. We developed a novel observational regime framework from over 15 years of MODIS satellite observations, from which we have derived a set of regimes of cloud controlling factors. These regimes were established using the relationship strength, as measured by using the weights of a trained, simple machine learning model. We apply these as observational constraints on the ​​r1i1p1f1 and r1i1p1f3 historical runs from various CMIP6 models to test if CMIP6 climate models can accurately represent key cloud controlling factors.. Within our regime framework, we can compare the observed environmental drivers and sensitivities of each regime against the parameterization-driven, modeled outcomes. We find that, for almost every regime, CMIP6 models do not properly represent the global distribution of occurrence, raising into question how much we can trust our range of climate sensitivities when specific cloud controlling factors are so badly represented by these models. This is especially pertinent in southern ocean and marine stratocumulus regimes, as the changes in these clouds’ optical depths and cloud amount have increased the ECS from CMIP5 to CMIP6. Our results suggest that these uncertainties in CMIP6 cloud parameterizations propagate into derived cloud feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity, which is evident from a regimed based analysis of cloud controlling factors.

How to cite: Douglas, A. and Stier, P.: Defining regime specific cloud sensitivities using the learnings from machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8848, 2022.

EGU22-9112 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Causal Orthogonal Functions: A Causal Inference approach to temporal feature extraction 

Nicolas-Domenic Reiter, Jakob Runge, and Andreas Gerhardus

Understanding complex dynamical systems is a major challenge in many scientific disciplines. There are two aspects which are of particular interest when analyzing complex dynamical systems: 1) the temporal patterns along which they evolve and 2) the governing causal mechanisms.

Temporal patterns in a time-series can be extracted and analyzed through a variety of time-series representations, that is a collection of filters. Discrete Wavelet and Fourier Transforms are prominent examples and have been widely applied to investigate the temporal structure of dynamical systems.

Causal Inference is a framework formalizing questions of cause and effect. In this work we propose an elementary and systematic approach to combine time-series representations with Causal Inference. Hereby we introduce a notion of cause and effect with respect to a pair of arbitrary time-series filters. Using a Singular Value Decomposition we derive an alternative representation of how one process drives another over a specified time-period. We call the building blocks of this representation Causal Orthogonal Functions. Combining the notion of Causal Orthogonal Functions with a Wavelet or Fourier decomposition of a time-series yields time-scale specific Causal Orthogonal Functions. As a result we obtain a time-scale specific representation of the causal influence one process has on another over some fixed time-period. This allows to conduct causal effect analysis in discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems at multiple time-scales. We illustrate our approach by examining linear VAR processes.

How to cite: Reiter, N.-D., Runge, J., and Gerhardus, A.: Causal Orthogonal Functions: A Causal Inference approach to temporal feature extraction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9112, 2022.

Outliers detection generally aims at identifying extreme events and insightful changes in climate behavior. One important type of outlier is pattern outlier also called discord, where the outlier pattern detected covers a time interval instead of a single point in the time series. Machine learning contributes many algorithms and methods in this field especially unsupervised algorithms for different types of data time series. In a first submitted paper, we have investigated discord detection applied to climate-related impact observations. We have introduced the prominent discord notion, a contextual concept that derives a set of insightful discords by identifying dependencies among variable length discords, and which is ordered based on the number of discords they subsume. 

Following this study, here we propose a ranking function based on the length of the first subsumed discord and the total length of the prominent discord, and make use of the powerful matrix profile technique. Preliminary results show that our approach, applied to monthly runoff timeseries between 1902 and 2005 over West Africa, detects both the emergence of long term change with the associated former climate regime, and the regional driest decade (1982-1992) of the 20th century (i.e. climate extreme event). In order to demonstrate the genericity and multiple insights gained by our method, we go further by evaluating the approach on other impact (e.g. crop data, fires, water storage) and climate (precipitation and temperature) observations, to provide similar results on different variables, extract relationships among them and identify what constitutes a prominent discord in such cases. A further step will consist in evaluating our methodology on climate and impact historical simulations, to determine if prominent discords highlighted in observations can be captured in climate and impact models.

How to cite: El Khansa, H., Gervet, C., and Brouillet, A.: Prominent discords in climate data through matrix profile techniques: detecting emerging long term pattern changes and anomalous events , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9250, 2022.

EGU22-9281 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Machine learning-based identification and classification of ocean eddies 

Eike Bolmer, Adili Abulaitijiang, Jürgen Kusche, Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Sophie Stolzenberger, and Ribana Roscher

The automatic detection and tracking of mesoscale ocean eddies, the ‘weather of the ocean’, is a well-known task in oceanography. These eddies have horizontal scales from 10 km up to 100 km and above. They transport water mass, heat, nutrition, and carbon and have been identified as hot spots of biological activity. Monitoring eddies is therefore of interest among others to marine biologists and fishery. 
Recent advances in satellite-based observation for oceanography such as sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) result in a large supply of different data products in which eddies are visible. In radar altimetry observations are acquired with repeat cycles between 10 and 35 days and cross-track spacing of a few 10 km to a few 100 km. Therefore, ocean eddies are clearly visible but typically covered by only one ground track. In addition, due to their motion, eddies are difficult to reconstruct, which makes creating detailed maps of the ocean with a high temporal resolution a challenge. In general, they are considered a perturbation, and their influence on altimetry data is difficult to determine, which is especially limiting for the determination of an accurate time-averaged dynamic topography of the ocean.
Due to their spatio-temporal dynamic behavior the identification and tracking are challenging. There is a number of methods that have been developed to identify and track eddies in gridded maps of sea surface height derived from multi-mission data sets. However, these procedures have shortcomings since the gridding process removes information that is valuable in achieving more accurate results.
Therefore, in the project EDDY carried out at the University of Bonn we intend to use ground track data from satellite altimetry and - as a long-term goal - additional remote sensing data such as SST, optical imagery, as well as statistical information from model outputs. The combination of the data will serve as a basis for a multi-modal deep learning algorithm. In detail, we will utilize transformers, a deep neural network architecture, that originates from the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and became popular in recent years in the field of computer vision. This method shows promising results in terms of understanding temporal and spatial information, which is essential in detecting and tracking highly dynamic eddies.
In this presentation, we introduce the deep neural network used in the EDDY project and show the results based on gridded data sets for the Gulf stream area for the period 2017 and first results of single-track eddy identification in the region.

How to cite: Bolmer, E., Abulaitijiang, A., Kusche, J., Fenoglio-Marc, L., Stolzenberger, S., and Roscher, R.: Machine learning-based identification and classification of ocean eddies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9281, 2022.

EGU22-9461 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Data Driven Approaches for Climate Predictability 

Balasubramanya Nadiga

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate. In this context, the Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) approach (closely related to Dynamic Mode Decomposition DMD), by helping capture a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in being able to give insights into the dynamical behavior of the full system. While nonlinear extensions of the LIM approach have been attempted none have gained widespread acceptance. We demonstrate that Reservoir Computing (RC), a form of machine learning suited for learning in the context of chaotic dynamics, by exploiting the phenomenon of generalized synchronization, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that comprehensively outperforms the LIM approach.  Additionally, the potential of the RC approach to capture the structure of the climatological attractor and to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor in a realistic fashion long after the ensemble average has stopped tracking the reference trajectory is highlighted. Finally, other dynamical systems based methods and probabilistic deep learning methods are considered and a broader perspective on the use of data-driven methods in understanding climate predictability is offered

How to cite: Nadiga, B.: Data Driven Approaches for Climate Predictability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9461, 2022.

EGU22-9877 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

A Conditional Generative Adversarial Network for Rainfall Downscaling 

Marcello Iotti, Paolo Davini, Jost von Hardenberg, and Giuseppe Zappa

Predicting extreme precipitation events is one of the main challenges of climate science in this decade. Despite the continuously increasing computing availability, Global Climate Models’ (GCMs) spatial resolution is still too coarse to correctly represent and predict small-scale phenomena as convection, so that precipitation prediction is still imprecise. Indeed, precipitation shows variability on both spatial and temporal scales (much) smaller than the current state-of-the-art GCMs resolution. Therefore, downscaling techniques play a crucial role, both for the understanding of the phenomenon itself and for applications like e.g. hydrologic studies, risk prediction and emergency management. Seen in the context of image processing, a downscaling procedure has many similarities with super-resolution tasks, i.e. the improvement of the resolution of an image. This scope has taken advantage from the application of Machine Learning techniques, and in particular from the introduction of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs).

In our work we exploit a conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) to train a generator model to perform precipitation downscaling. This generator, a deep CNN, takes as input the precipitation field at the scale resolved by GCMs, adds random noise, and outputs a possible realization of the precipitation field at higher resolution, preserving its statistical properties with respect to the coarse-scale field. The GAN is being trained and tested in a “perfect model” setup, in which we try to reproduce the ERA5 precipitation field starting from an upscaled version of it.

Compared to other downscaling techniques, our model has the advantage of being computationally inexpensive at run time, since the computational load is mostly concentrated in the training phase. We are examining the Greater Alpine Region, upon which numerical models performances are limited by the complex orography. Nevertheless the approach, being independent of physical, statistical and empirical assumptions, can be easily extended to different domains.

How to cite: Iotti, M., Davini, P., von Hardenberg, J., and Zappa, G.: A Conditional Generative Adversarial Network for Rainfall Downscaling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9877, 2022.

EGU22-10120 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

A Convolutional Neural Network approach for downscaling climate model data in Trentino-South Tyrol (Eastern Italian Alps) 

Alice Crespi, Daniel Frisinghelli, Tatiana Klisho, Marcello Petitta, Alexander Jacob, and Massimiliano Pittore

Statistical downscaling is a very popular technique to increase the spatial resolution of existing global and regional climate model simulations and to provide reliable climate data at local scale. The availability of tailored information is particularly crucial for conducting local climate assessments, climate change studies and for running impact models, especially in complex terrain. A crucial requirement is the ability to reliably downscale the mean, variability and extremes of climate data, while preserving their spatial and temporal correlations.

Several machine learning-based approaches have been proposed so far to perform such task by extracting non-linear relationships between local-scale variables and large-scale atmospheric predictors and they could outperform more traditional statistical methods. In recent years, deep learning has gained particular interest in geoscientific studies and climate science as a promising tool to improve climate downscaling thanks to its greater ability to extract high-level features from large datasets using complex hierarchical architectures. However, the proper network architecture is highly dependent on the target variable, time and spatial resolution, as well as application purposes and target domain.

This contribution presents a Deep Convolutional Encoder-Decoder Network (DCEDN) architecture which was implemented and evaluated for the first time over Trentino-South Tyrol in the Eastern Italian Alps to derive 1-km climate fields of daily temperature and precipitation from ERA-5 reanalysis. We will show that in-depth optimization of hyper-parameters, loss function choice and sensitivity analyses are essential preliminary steps to derive an effective architecture and enhance the interpretability of results and of their variability. The validation of downscaled fields of both temperature and precipitation confirmed the improved representation of local features for both mean and extreme values, even though lower performances were obtained for precipitation in reproducing small-scale spatial features. In all cases, DCEDN was found to outperform classical schemes based on linear regression and the bias adjustment procedures used as benchmarks. We will discuss in detail the advantages and recommendations for the integration of DCEDN as an efficient post-processing block in climate data simulations supporting local-scale studies. The model constraints in feature extraction, especially for precipitation, over the limited extent of the study domain will also be explained along with potential future developments of such type of networks for improved climate science applications.

How to cite: Crespi, A., Frisinghelli, D., Klisho, T., Petitta, M., Jacob, A., and Pittore, M.: A Convolutional Neural Network approach for downscaling climate model data in Trentino-South Tyrol (Eastern Italian Alps), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10120, 2022.

EGU22-10773 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Choose your own weather adventure: deep weather generation for “what-if” climate scenarios 

Campbell Watson, Jorge Guevara, Daniela Szwarcman, Dario Oliveira, Leonardo Tizzei, Maria Garcia, Priscilla Avegliano, and Bianca Zadrozny

Climate change is making extreme weather more extreme. Given the inherent uncertainty of long-term climate projections, there is growing need for rapid, plausible “what-if” climate scenarios to help users understand climate exposure and examine resilience and mitigation strategies. Since the 1980s, such “what-if” scenarios have been created using stochastic weather generators. However, it is very challenging for traditional weather generation algorithms to create realistic extreme climate scenarios because the weather data being modeled is highly imbalanced, contains spatiotemporal dependencies and has extreme weather events exacerbated by a changing climate.

There are few works comparing and evaluating stochastic multisite (i.e., gridded) weather generators, and no existing work that compares promising deep learning approaches for weather generation with classical stochastic weather generators. We will present the culmination of a multi-year effort to perform a systematic evaluation of stochastic weather generators and deep generative models for multisite precipitation synthesis. Among other things, we show that variational auto-encoders (VAE) offer an encouraging pathway for efficient and controllable climate scenario synthesis – especially for extreme events. Our proposed VAE schema selects events with different characteristics in the normalized latent space (from rare to common) and generates high-quality scenarios using the trained decoder. Improvements are provided via latent space clustering and bringing histogram-awareness to the VAE loss.

This research will serve as a guide for improving the design of deep learning architectures and algorithms for application in Earth science, including feature representation and uncertainty quantification of Earth system data and the characterization of so-called “grey swan” events.

How to cite: Watson, C., Guevara, J., Szwarcman, D., Oliveira, D., Tizzei, L., Garcia, M., Avegliano, P., and Zadrozny, B.: Choose your own weather adventure: deep weather generation for “what-if” climate scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10773, 2022.

EGU22-10888 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

How to utilize deep learning to understand climate dynamics? : An ENSO example. 

Na-Yeon Shin, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jeong-Hwan Kim, Minsu Cho, and Jong-Seong Kug

Many deep learning technologies have been applied to the Earth sciences, including weather forecast, climate prediction, parameterization, resolution improvements, etc. Nonetheless, the difficulty in interpreting deep learning results still prevents their applications to studies on climate dynamics. Here, we applied a convolutional neural network to understand El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics from long-term climate model simulations. The deep learning algorithm successfully predicted ENSO events with a high correlation skill of 0.82 for a 9-month lead. For interpreting deep learning results beyond the prediction skill, we first developed a “contribution map,” which estimates how much each grid point and variable contribute to a final output variable. Furthermore, we introduced a “sensitivity,” which estimates how much the output variable is sensitively changed to the small perturbation of the input variables by showing the differences in the output variables. The contribution map clearly shows the most important precursors for El Niño and La Niña developments. In addition, the sensitivity clearly reveals nonlinear relations between the precursors and the ENSO index, which helps us understand the respective role of each precursor. Our results suggest that the contribution map and sensitivity would be beneficial for understanding other climate phenomena.

How to cite: Shin, N.-Y., Ham, Y.-G., Kim, J.-H., Cho, M., and Kug, J.-S.: How to utilize deep learning to understand climate dynamics? : An ENSO example., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10888, 2022.

EGU22-11111 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Machine learning based estimation of regional Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) constrained by atmospheric inversions and ecosystem observations 

Samuel Upton, Ana Bastos, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Wouter Peters, Jacob Nelson, Sophia Walther, Martin Jung, and Markus Reichstein

Accurate estimates and predictions of the global carbon fluxes are critical for our understanding of the global carbon cycle and climate change. Reducing the uncertainty of the terrestrial carbon sink and closing the budget imbalance between sources and sinks would improve our ability to accurately project future climate change. Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), the net flux of biogenic carbon from the land surface to the atmosphere, is only directly measured at a sparse set of globally distributed eddy-covariance measurement sites. To estimate the terrestrial carbon flux at the regional and global scale, a global gridded estimate of NEE must be accurately upscaled from a model trained at the ecosystem level. In this study, the Fluxcom system* is used to train a site-level model on remotely-sensed and meteorological variables derived from site measurements, MODIS and ECMWF ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data. The non-representative distribution of these site-level data along with missing disturbance histories impart known biases to current upscaling efforts. Observations of atmospheric carbon may provide important additional information, improving the accuracy of the upscaled flux estimate. 

This study adds an atmospheric observational operator to the model training process that connects the ecosystem-level flux model to top-down observations of atmospheric carbon by adding an additional term to the objective function. The target data are regionally integrated fluxes from an ensemble of atmospheric inversions corrected for fossil-fuel emissions and lateral fluxes.  Calculating the regionally integrated flux estimate at each training step is computationally infeasible. Our hypothesis is that the regional flux can be modeled with a limited set of points and that this sparse model preserves sufficient information about the phenomena to act as a constraint for the underlying ecosystem-level model, improving regional and global upscaled products.  Experimental results show improvements in the machine learning based regional estimates of NEE while preserving features such as the seasonal variability in the estimated flux.

 

*Jung, Martin, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, et al. 2020. “Scaling Carbon Fluxes from Eddy Covariance Sites to Globe: Synthesis and Evaluation of the FLUXCOM Approach.” Biogeosciences 17 (5): 1343–65. 

 

How to cite: Upton, S., Bastos, A., Gans, F., Kraft, B., Peters, W., Nelson, J., Walther, S., Jung, M., and Reichstein, M.: Machine learning based estimation of regional Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) constrained by atmospheric inversions and ecosystem observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11111, 2022.

EGU22-11216 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Unsupervised clustering of Lagrangian trajectories in the Labrador Current 

Noémie Planat and Mathilde Jutras

Lagrangian studies are a widely-used and powerful way to analyse and interpret phenomenons in oceanography and atmospheric sciences. Such studies can be based on dataset either consisting of real trajectories (e.g. oceanic drifters or floats) or of virtual trajectories computed from velocity outputs from model or observation-derived velocities. Such data can help investigate pathways of water masses, pollutants or storms, or identify important convection areas to name a few. As many of these analyses are based on large volumes of data that can be challenging to examine, machine learning can provide an efficient and automated way to classify information or detect patterns.

Here, we present an application of unsupervised clustering to the identification of the main pathways of the shelf-break branch of the Labrador Current, a critical component of the North Atlantic circulation. The current flows southward along the Labrador Shelf and splits in the region of the Grand Banks, either retroflecting north-eastward and feeding the subpolar basin of the North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) or continuing westward along the shelf-break, feeding the Slope Sea and the east coast of North America. The proportion feeding each area impacts their salinity and convection, as well as their biogeochemistry, with consequences on marine life.

Our dataset is composed of millions of virtual particle trajectories computed from the water velocities of the GLORYS12 ocean reanalysis. We implement an unsupervised Machine Learning clustering algorithm on the shape of the trajectories. The algorithm is a kernalized k-means++ algorithm with a minimal number of hyperparameters, coupled to a kernalized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) features reduction. We will present the pre-processing of the data, as well as canonical and physics-based methods for choosing the hyperparameters. 

The algorithm identifies six main pathways of the Labrador Current. Applying the resulting classification method to 25 years of ocean reanalysis, we quantify the relative importance of the six pathways in time and construct a retroflection index that is used to study the drivers of the retroflection variability. This study highlights the potential of such a simple clustering method for Lagrangian trajectory analysis in oceanography or in other climate applications.

How to cite: Planat, N. and Jutras, M.: Unsupervised clustering of Lagrangian trajectories in the Labrador Current, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11216, 2022.

EGU22-11388 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Learning ENSO-related Principal Modes of Vegetation via a Granger-Causal Variational Autoencoder 

Gherardo Varando, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, and Gustau Camps-Valls

Tackling climate change needs to understand the complex phenomena occurring on the Planet. Discovering  teleconnection patterns is an essential part of the endeavor. Events like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact essential climate variables at large distances, and influence the underlying Earth system dynamics. However, their automatic identification from the wealth of observational data is still unresolved. Nonlinearities, nonstationarities and the (ab)use of correlation analyses hamper the discovery of true causal patterns.  Classical approaches proceed by first, extracting principal modes of variability and second, by performing lag-correlations or Granger causal analysis to identify possible teleconnections. While the principal modes are an effective representation of the data, they could be causally not meaningful. 
To address this, we here introduce a deep learning methodology that extracts nonlinear latent representations from spatio-temporal Earth data that are Granger causal with the index altogether. The proposed algorithm consists of a variational autoencoder trained with an additional causal penalization that enforces the latent representation to be (partially) Granger-causally related to the considered signal. The causal loss term is obtained by training two additional autoregressive models to forecast some of the latent signals, one of them including the target signal as predictor. The causal penalization is finally computed by comparing the log variances of the two autoregressive models, similarly to the standard Granger causality approach. 

The major drawback of deep autoencoders with respect to the classical linear principal component approaches is the lack of a straightforward interpretability of the representations learned. 
To address this point we perform synthetic interventions in the latent space and analyse the differences in the recovered NDVI signal.
We illustrate the feasibility of the approach described to study the impact of ENSO on vegetation, which allows for a more rigorous study of impacts on ecosystems globally. The output maps show NDVI patterns which are consistent with the known phenomena induced by El Niño event. 

How to cite: Varando, G., Fernández-Torres, M.-Á., and Camps-Valls, G.: Learning ENSO-related Principal Modes of Vegetation via a Granger-Causal Variational Autoencoder, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11388, 2022.

EGU22-11451 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Time evolution of temperature profiles retrieved from 13 years of IASI data using an artificial neural network 

Marie Bouillon, Sarah Safieddine, Simon Whitburn, Lieven Clarisse, Filipe Aires, Victor Pellet, Olivier Lezeaux, Noëlle A. Scott, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, and Cathy Clerbaux

The IASI remote sensor measures Earth’s thermal infrared radiation over 8461 channels between 645 and 2760 cm-1. Atmospheric temperatures at different altitudes can be retrieved from the radiances measured in the CO2 absorption bands (645-800 cm-1 and 2250-2400 cm-1) by selecting the channels that are the most sensitive to the temperature profile. The three IASI instruments on board of the Metop suite of satellites launched in 2006, 2012 and 2018, will provide a long time series for temperature, adequate for studying the long term evolution of atmospheric temperature. However, over the past 14 years, EUMETSAT, who processes radiances and computes atmospheric temperatures, has carried out several updates on the processing algorithms for both radiances and temperatures, leading to non-homogeneous time series and thus large difficulties in the computation of trends for temperature and atmospheric composition.

 

In 2018, EUMETSAT has reprocessed the radiances with the most recent version of the algorithm and there is now a homogeneous radiance dataset available. In this study, we retrieve a new temperature record from the homogeneous IASI radiances using an artificial neural network (ANN). We train the ANN with IASI radiances as input and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis ERA5 temperatures as output. We validate the results using ERA5 and in situ radiosonde temperatures from the ARSA database. Between 750 and 7 hPa, where IASI has most of its sensitivity, a very good agreement is observed between the 3 datasets. This work suggests that ANN can be a simple yet powerful tool to retrieve IASI temperatures at different altitudes in the upper troposphere and in the stratosphere, allowing us to construct a homogeneous and consistent temperature data record.

 

We use this new dataset to study extreme events such as sudden stratospheric warmings, and to compute trends over the IASI coverage period [2008-2020]. We find that in the past thirteen years, there is a general warming trend of the troposphere, that is more important at the poles and at mid latitudes (0.5 K/decade at mid latitudes, 1 K/decade at the North Pole). The stratosphere is globally cooling on average, except at the South Pole as a result of the ozone layer recovery and a sudden stratospheric warming in 2019. The cooling is most pronounced in the equatorial upper stratosphere (-1 K/decade).

How to cite: Bouillon, M., Safieddine, S., Whitburn, S., Clarisse, L., Aires, F., Pellet, V., Lezeaux, O., Scott, N. A., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., and Clerbaux, C.: Time evolution of temperature profiles retrieved from 13 years of IASI data using an artificial neural network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11451, 2022.

Existing databases for extreme weather events such as floods, heavy rainfall events, or droughts are heavily reliant on authorities and weather services manually entering details about the occurrence of an event. This reliance has led to a massive geographical imbalance in the likelihood of extreme weather events being recorded, with a vast number of events especially in the developing world remaining unrecorded. With continuing climate change, a lack of systematic extreme weather accounting in developing countries can lead to a substantial misallocation of funds for adaptation measures. To address this imbalance, in this pilot study we combine socio-economic data with climate and geographic data and use several machine-learning algorithms as well as traditional (spatial) econometric tools to predict the occurrence of extreme weather events and their impacts in the absence of information from manual records. Our preliminary results indicate that machine-learning approaches for the detection of the impacts of extreme weather could be a crucial tool in establishing a coherent global disaster record system. Such systems could also play a role in discussions around future Loss and Damages.

How to cite: Schwarz, M. and Pretis, F.: Filling in the Gaps: Consistently detecting previously unidentified extreme weather event impacts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12165, 2022.

EGU22-12720 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2 | Highlight

Interpretable Deep Learning for Probabilistic MJO Prediction 

Hannah Christensen and Antoine Delaunay

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of sub-seasonal variability in the tropics. It consists of an Eastward moving region of enhanced convection coupled to changes in zonal winds. It is not possible to predict the precise evolution of the MJO, so subseasonal forecasts are generally probabilistic. Ideally the spread of the forecast probability distribution would vary from day to day depending on the instantaneous predictability of the MJO. Operational subseasonal forecasting models do not have this property. We present a deep convolutional neural network that produces skilful state-dependent probabilistic MJO forecasts. This statistical model accounts for intrinsic chaotic uncertainty by predicting the standard deviation about the mean, and model uncertainty using a Monte-Carlo dropout approach. Interpretation of the mean forecasts from the neural network highlights known MJO mechanisms, providing confidence in the model, while interpretation of the predicted uncertainty indicates new physical mechanisms governing MJO predictability.

How to cite: Christensen, H. and Delaunay, A.: Interpretable Deep Learning for Probabilistic MJO Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12720, 2022.

EGU22-12822 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Assessing model dependency in CMIP5 and CMIP6 based on their spatial dependency structure with probabilistic network models 

Catharina Elisabeth Graafland and Jose Manuel Gutiérrez Gutiérrez

Probabilistic network models (PNMs) are well established data-driven modeling and machine learning prediction techniques used in many disciplines, including climate analysis. These techniques can efficiently learn the underlying (spatial) dependency structure and a consistent probabilistic model from data (e.g. gridded reanalysis or GCM outputs for particular variables; near surface temperature in this work), thus constituting a truly probabilistic backbone of the system underlying the data. The complex structure of the dataset is encoded using both pairwise and conditional dependencies and can be explored and characterized using network and probabilistic metrics. When applied to climate data, it is shown that Bayesian networks faithfully reveal the various long‐range teleconnections relevant in the dataset, in particular those emerging in el niño periods (Graafland, 2020).

 

In this work we apply probabilistic Gaussian networks to extract and characterize most essential spatial dependencies of the simulations generated by the different GCMs contributing to CMIP5 and 6 (Eyring 2016). In particular we analyze the problem of model interdependency (Boe, 2018) which poses practical problems for the application of these multi-model simulations in practical applications (it is often not clear what exactly makes one model different from or similar to another model).  We show that probabilistic Gaussian networks provide a promising tool to characterize the spatial structure of GCMs using simple metrics which can be used to analyze how and where differences in dependency structures are manifested. The probabilistic distance measure allows to chart CMIP5 and CMIP6 models on their closeness to reanalysis datasets that rely on observations. The measures also identifies significant atmospheric model changes that underwent CMIP5 GCMs in their transition to CMIP6. 

 

References:

 

Boé, J. Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 2771–2779, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076829 (2018).

 

Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model. Dev. 9, 1937–1958, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016  (2016).

 

Graafland, C.E., Gutiérrez, J.M., López, J.M. et al. The probabilistic backbone of data-driven complex networks: an example in climate. Sci Rep 10, 11484 (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67970-y



Acknowledgement

 

The authors would like to acknowledge project ATLAS (PID2019-111481RB-I00) funded by MCIN/AEI (doi:10.13039/501100011033). We also acknowledge support from Universidad de Cantabria and Consejería de Universidades, Igualdad, Cultura y Deporte del Gobierno de Cantabria via the “instrumentación y ciencia de datos para sondear la naturaleza del universo” project for funding this work. L.G. acknowledges support from the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación through the Unidad de Excelencia María de Maeztu with reference MDM-2017-0765.



How to cite: Graafland, C. E. and Gutiérrez, J. M. G.: Assessing model dependency in CMIP5 and CMIP6 based on their spatial dependency structure with probabilistic network models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12822, 2022.

EGU22-12858 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

Identifying drivers of extreme reductions in carbon uptake of forests with interpretable machine learning 

Mohit Anand, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Jakob Zscheischler

Forests form one of the major components of the carbon cycle and take up large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thereby slowing down the rate of climate change. Carbon uptake by forests is a highly complex process strongly controlled by meteorological forcing, mainly because of two reasons. First, forests have a large storage capacity acting as a buffer to short-duration changes in meteorological drivers. The response can thus be very complex and extend over a long time. Secondly, the responses are often triggered by combinations of multiple compounding drivers including precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. Effects may compound between variables and across time. Therefore, a large amount of data is required to identify the complex drivers of adverse forest response to climate forcing. Recent advances in machine learning offer a suite of promising tools to analyse large amounts of data and address the challenge of identifying complex drivers of impacts. Here we analyse the potential of machine learning to identify the compounding drivers of reduced carbon uptake/forest mortality. To this end, we generate 200,000 years of gross and net carbon uptake from the physically-based forest model FORMIND simulating a beech forest in Germany. The climate data is generated through a weather generator (AWEGEN-1D) from bias-corrected ERA5 reanalysis data.  Classical machine learning models like random forest, support vector machines and deep neural networks are trained to estimate gross primary product. Deep learning models involving convolutional layers are found to perform better than the other classical machine learning models. Initial results show that at least three years of weather data are required to predict annual carbon uptake with high accuracy, highlighting the complex lagged effects that characterize forests. We assess the performance of the different models and discuss their interpretability regarding the identification of impact drivers.



How to cite: Anand, M., Camps-Valls, G., and Zscheischler, J.: Identifying drivers of extreme reductions in carbon uptake of forests with interpretable machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12858, 2022.

EGU22-13345 | Presentations | ITS2.7/AS5.2

A novel approach to systematically analyze the error structure of precipitation datasets using decision trees 

Xinxin Sui, Zhi Li, Guoqiang Tang, Zong-Liang Yang, and Dev Niyogi
Multiple environmental factors influence the error structure of precipitation datasets. The conventional precipitation evaluation method over-simply analyzes how the statistical indicators vary with one or two factors via dimensionality reduction. As a result, the compound influences of multiple factors are superposed rather than disassembled. To overcome this deficiency, this study presents a novel approach to systematically and objectively analyze the error structure within precipitation products using decision trees. This data-driven method can analyze multiple factors simultaneously and extract the compound effects of various influencers. By interpreting the decision tree structures, the error characteristics of precipitation products are investigated. Three types of precipitation products (two satellite-based: ‘top-down’ IMERG and ‘bottom-up’ SM2RAIN-ASCAT, and one reanalysis: ERA5-Land) are evaluated across CONUS. The study period is from 2010 to 2019, and the ground-based Stage IV precipitation dataset is used as the ground truth. By data mining 60 binary decision trees, the spatiotemporal pattern of errors and the land surface influences are analyzed.
 
Results indicate that IMERG and ERA5-Land perform better than SM2RAIN-ASCAT with higher accuracy and more stable interannual patterns for the ten years of data analyzed. The conventional bias evaluation finds that ERA5-Land and SM2RAIN-ASCAT underestimate in summer and winter, respectively. The decision tree method cross-assesses three spatiotemporal factors and finds that underestimation of ERA5-Land occurs in the eastern part of the rocky mountains, and SM2RAIN-ASCAT underestimates precipitation over high latitudes, especially in winter. Additionally, the decision tree method ascribes system errors to nine physical variables, of which the distance to the coast, soil type, and DEM are the three dominant features. On the other hand, the land cover classification and the topography position index are two relatively weak factors.

How to cite: Sui, X., Li, Z., Tang, G., Yang, Z.-L., and Niyogi, D.: A novel approach to systematically analyze the error structure of precipitation datasets using decision trees, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13345, 2022.

EGU22-20 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

PRECISIONPOP: a multi-scale monitoring system for poplar plantations integrating field, aerial and satellite remote sensing 

Francesco Chianucci, Francesca Giannetti, Clara Tattoni, Nicola Puletti, Achille Giorcelli, Carlo Bisaglia, Elio Romano, Massimo Brambilla, Piermario Chiarabaglio, Massimo Gennaro, Giovanni d'Amico, Saverio Francini, Walter Mattioli, Domenico Coaloa, Piermaria Corona, and Gherardo Chirici

Poplar (Populus spp.) plantations are globally widespread in the Northern Hemisphere, and provide a wide range of benefits and products, including timber, carbon sequestration and phytoremediation. Because of poplar specific features (fast growth, short rotation) the information needs require frequent updates, which exceed the traditional scope of National Forest Inventories, implying the need for ad-hoc monitoring solutions.

Here we presented a regional-level multi-scale monitoring system developed for poplar plantations, which is based on the integration of different remotely-sensed informations at different spatial scales, developed in Lombardy (Northern Italy) region. The system is based on three levels of information: 1) At plot scale, terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) was used to develop non-destructive tree stem volume allometries in calibration sites; the produced allometries were then used to estimate plot-level stand parameters from field inventory; additional canopy structure attributes were derived using field digital cover photography. 2) At farm level, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with multispectral sensors were used to upscale results obtained from field data. 3) Finally, both field and unmanned aerial estimates were used to calibrate a regional-scale supervised continuous monitoring system based on multispectral Sentinel-2 imagery, which was implemented and updated in a Google Earth Engine platform.

The combined use of multi-scale information allowed an effective management and monitoring of poplar plantations. From a top-down perspective, the continuous satellite monitoring system allowed the detection of early warning poplar stress, which are suitable for variable rate irrigation and fertilizing scheduling. From a bottom-up perspective, the spatially explicit nature of TLS measurements allows better integration with remotely sensed data, enabling a multiscale assessment of poplar plantation structure with different levels of detail, enhancing conventional tree inventories, and supporting effective management strategies. Finally, use of UAV is key in poplar plantations as their spatial resolution is suited for calibrating metrics from coarser remotely-sensed products, reducing or avoiding the need of ground measurements, with a significant reduction of time and costs.

How to cite: Chianucci, F., Giannetti, F., Tattoni, C., Puletti, N., Giorcelli, A., Bisaglia, C., Romano, E., Brambilla, M., Chiarabaglio, P., Gennaro, M., d'Amico, G., Francini, S., Mattioli, W., Coaloa, D., Corona, P., and Chirici, G.: PRECISIONPOP: a multi-scale monitoring system for poplar plantations integrating field, aerial and satellite remote sensing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-20, 2022.

EGU22-124 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Unsupervised machine learning driven Prospectivity analysis of REEs in NE India 

Malcolm Aranha and Alok Porwal

Traditional mineral prospectivity modelling for mineral exploration and targeting relies heavily on manual data filtering and processing to extract desirable geologic features based on expert knowledge. It involves the integration of geological predictor maps that are manually derived by time-consuming and labour-intensive pre-processing of primary geoscientific data to serve as spatial proxies of mineralisation processes. Moreover, the selection of these spatial proxies is guided by conceptual genetic modelling of the targeted deposit type, which may be biased by the subjective preference of an expert geologist. This study applies Self-Organising Maps (SOM), a neural network-based unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithm, to gridded geophysical and topographical datasets in order to identify and delineate regional-scale exploration targets for carbonatite-alkaline-complex-related REE deposits in northeast India. The study did not utilise interpreted and processed or manually generated data, such as surface or bed-rock geological maps, fault traces, etc., and relies on the algorithm to identify crucial features and delineate prospective areas. The obtained results were then compared with those obtained from a previous supervised knowledge-driven prospectivity analysis. The results were found to be comparable. Therefore, unsupervised machine learning algorithms are reliable tools to automate the manual process of mineral prospectivity modelling and are robust, time-saving alternatives to knowledge-driven or supervised data-driven prospectivity modelling. These methods would be instrumental in unexplored terrains for which there is little or no geological knowledge available. 

How to cite: Aranha, M. and Porwal, A.: Unsupervised machine learning driven Prospectivity analysis of REEs in NE India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-124, 2022.

EGU22-654 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

On the derivation of data-driven models for partially observed systems 

Said Ouala, Bertrand Chapron, Fabrice Collard, Lucile Gaultier, and Ronan Fablet

When considering the modeling of dynamical systems, the increasing interest in machine learning, artificial intelligence and more generally, data-driven representations, as well as the increasing availability of data, motivated the exploration and definition of new identification techniques. These new data-driven representations aim at solving modern questions regarding the modeling, the prediction and ultimately, the understanding of complex systems such as the ocean, the atmosphere and the climate. 

In this work, we focus on one question regarding the ability to define a (deterministic) dynamical model from a sequence of observations. We focus on sea surface observations and show that these observations typically relate to some, but not all, components of the underlying state space, making the derivation of a deterministic model in the observation space impossible. In this context, we formulate the identification problem as the definition, from data, of an embedding of the observations, parameterized by a differential equation. When compared to state-of-the-art techniques based on delay embedding and linear decomposition of the underlying operators, the proposed approach benefits from all the advances in machine learning and dynamical systems theory in order to define, constrain and tune the reconstructed sate space and the approximate differential equation. Furthermore, the proposed embedding methodology naturally extends to cases in which a dynamical prior (derived for example using physical principals) is known, leading to relevant physics informed data-driven models. 

How to cite: Ouala, S., Chapron, B., Collard, F., Gaultier, L., and Fablet, R.: On the derivation of data-driven models for partially observed systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-654, 2022.

EGU22-1255 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

A Deep Learning approach to de-bias Air Quality forecasts, using heterogeneous Open Data sources as reference 

Antonio Pérez, Mario Santa Cruz, Johannes Flemming, and Miha Razinger

The degradation of air quality is a challenge that policy-makers face all over the world. According to the World Health Organisation, air pollution causes an estimate of 7 million premature deaths every year. In this context, air quality forecasts are crucial tools for decision- and policy-makers, to achieve data-informed decisions.

Global forecasts, such as the Copernicus Atmosphere monitoring service model (CAMS), usually exhibit biases: systematic deviations from observations. Adjusting these biases is typically the first step towards obtaining actionable air quality forecasts. It is especially relevant in health-related decisions, when the metrics of interest depend on specific thresholds.

AQ (Air quality) - Bias correction was a project funded by the ECMWF Summer of Weather Code (ESOWC) 2021 whose aim is to improve CAMS model forecasts for air quality variables (NO2, O3, PM2.5), using as a reference the in-situ observations provided by OpenAQ. The adjustment, based on machine learning methods, was performed over a set of specific interesting locations provided by the ECMWF, for the period June 2019 to March 2021.

The machine learning approach uses three different deep learning based models, and an extra neural network that gathers the output of the three previous models. From the three DL-based models, two of them are independent and follow the same structure built upon the InceptionTime module: they use both meteorological and air quality variables, to exploit the temporal variability and to extract the most meaningful features of the past [t-24h, t-23h, … t-1h] and future [t, t+1h, …, t+23h] CAMS predictions. The third model uses the station static attributes (longitude, latitude and elevation), and a multilayer perceptron interacts with the station attributes. The extracted features from these three models are fed into another multilayer perceptron, to predict the upcoming errors with hourly resolution [t, t+1h, …, t+23h]. As a final step, 5 different initializations are considered, assembling them with equal weights to have a more stable regressor.

Previous to the modelisation, CAMS forecasts of air quality variables were actually biassed independently from the location of interest and the variable (on average: biasNO2 = -22.76, biasO3 = 44.30, biasPM2.5 = 12.70). In addition, the skill of the model, measured by the Pearson correlation, did not reach 0.5 for any of the variables—with remarkable low values for NO2 and O3 (on average: pearsonNO2 = 0.10, pearsonO3 = 0.14).

AQ-BiasCorrection modelisation properly corrects these biases. Overall, the number of stations that improve the biases both in train and test sets are: 52 out of 61 (85%) for NO2, 62 out of 67 (92%) for O3, and 80 out of 102 (78%) for PM2.5. Furthermore, the bias improves with declines of -1.1%, -9.7% and -13.9% for NO2, O3 and PM2.5 respectively. In addition, there is an increase in the model skill measured through the Pearson correlation, reaching values in the range of 100-400% for the overall improvement of the variable skill.

How to cite: Pérez, A., Santa Cruz, M., Flemming, J., and Razinger, M.: A Deep Learning approach to de-bias Air Quality forecasts, using heterogeneous Open Data sources as reference, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1255, 2022.

EGU22-1992 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Approximating downward short-wave radiation flux using all-sky optical imagery using machine learning trained on DASIO dataset. 

Vasilisa Koshkina, Mikhail Krinitskiy, Nikita Anikin, Mikhail Borisov, Natalia Stepanova, and Alexander Osadchiev

Solar radiation is the main source of energy on Earth. Cloud cover is the main physical factor limiting the downward short-wave radiation flux. In modern models of climate and weather forecasts, physical models describing the passage of radiation through clouds may be used. This is a computationally extremely expensive option for estimating downward radiation fluxes. Instead, one may use parameterizations which are simplified schemes for approximating environmental variables. The purpose of this work is to improve the accuracy of the existing parametrizations of downward shortwave radiation fluxes. We solve the problem using various machine learning (ML) models for approximating downward shortwave radiation flux using all-sky optical imagery. We assume that an all-sky photo contains complete information about the downward shortwave radiation. We examine several types of ML models that we trained on dataset of all-sky imagery accompanied by short-wave radiation flux measurements. The Dataset of All-Sky Imagery over the Ocean (DASIO) is collected in Indian, Atlantic and Arctic oceans during several oceanic expeditions from 2014 till 2021. The quality of the best classic ML model is better compared to existing parameterizations known from literature. We will show the results of our study regarding classic ML models as well as the results of an end-to-end ML approach involving convolutional neural networks. Our results allow us to assume one may acquire downward shortwave radiation fluxes directly from all-sky imagery. We will also cover some downsides and limitations of the presented approach.

How to cite: Koshkina, V., Krinitskiy, M., Anikin, N., Borisov, M., Stepanova, N., and Osadchiev, A.: Approximating downward short-wave radiation flux using all-sky optical imagery using machine learning trained on DASIO dataset., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1992, 2022.

EGU22-2058 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Deep learning for ensemble forecasting 

Rüdiger Brecht and Alexander Bihlo
Ensemble prediction systems are an invaluable tool for weather prediction. Practically, ensemble predictions are obtained by running several perturbed numerical simulations. However, these systems are associated with a high computational cost and often involve statistical post-processing steps to improve their qualities.
Here we propose to use a deep-learning-based algorithm to learn the statistical properties of a given ensemble prediction system, such that this system will not be needed to simulate future ensemble forecasts. This way, the high computational costs of the ensemble prediction system can be avoided while still obtaining the statistical properties from a single deterministic forecast. We show preliminary results where we demonstrate the ensemble prediction properties for a shallow water unstable jet simulation on the sphere. 

How to cite: Brecht, R. and Bihlo, A.: Deep learning for ensemble forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2058, 2022.

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are currently popularly used for operational weather forecast in meteorological centers. The NWP models describe the flow of fluids by employing a set of governing equations, physical parameterization schemes and initial and boundary conditions. Thus, it often face bias of prediction due to insufficient data assimilation, assumptions or approximations of dynamical and physical processes. To make gridded forecast of rainfall with high confidence, in this study, we present a data-driven deep learning model for correction of rainfall from NWP model, which mainly includes a confidence network and a combinatorial network. Meanwhile, a focal loss is introduced to deal with the characteristics of longtail-distribution of rainfall. It is expected to alleviate the impact of the large span of rainfall magnitude by transferring the regression problem into several binary classification problems. The deep learning model is used to correct the gridded forecasts of rainfall from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Integrated Forecasting System global model (ECMWF-IFS) with a forecast lead time of 24 h to 240 h in Eastern China. First, the rainfall forecast correction problem is treated as an image-to-image translation problem in deep learning under the neural networks. Second, the ECMWF-IFS forecasts and rainfall observations in recent years are used as training, validation, and testing datasets. Finally, the correction performance of the new machine learning model is evaluated and compared to several classical machine learning algorithms. By performing a set of experiments for rainfall forecast error correction, it is found that the new model can effectively forecast rainfall over East China region during the flood season of the year 2020. Experiments also demonstrate that the proposed approach generally performs better in bias correction of rainfall prediction than most of the classical machine learning approaches .

How to cite: Ma, L.: A Deep Learning Bias Correction Approach for Rainfall Numerical Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2095, 2022.

EGU22-2893 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

Bias Correction of Operational Storm Surge Forecasts Using Neural Networks 

Paulina Tedesco, Jean Rabault, Martin Lilleeng Sætra, Nils Melsom Kristensen, Ole Johan Aarnes, Øyvind Breivik, and Cecilie Mauritzen

Storm surges can give rise to extreme floods in coastal areas. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) produces 120-hour regional operational storm surge forecasts along the coast of Norway based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Despite advances in the development of models and computational capability, forecast errors remain large enough to impact response measures and issued alerts, in particular, during the strongest storm events. Reducing these errors will positively impact the efficiency of the warning systems while minimizing efforts and resources spent on mitigation.

Here, we investigate how forecasts can be improved with residual learning, i.e., training data-driven models to predict, and correct, the error in the ROMS output. For this purpose, sea surface height data from stations around Norway were collected and compared with the ROMS output.

We develop two different residual learning frameworks that can be applied on top of the ROMS output. In the first one, we perform binning of the model error, conditionalized by pressure, wind, and waves. Clear error patterns are visible when the error conditioned by the wind is plotted in a polar plot for each station. These error maps can be stored as correction lookup tables to be applied on the ROMS output. However, since wind, pressure, and waves are correlated, we cannot simultaneously correct the error associated with each variable using this method. To overcome this limitation, we develop a second method, which resorts to Neural Networks (NNs) to perform nonlinear modeling of the error pattern obtained at each station. 

The residual NN method strongly outperforms the error map method, and is a promising direction for correcting storm surge models operationally. Indeed, i) this method is applied on top of the existing model and requires no changes to it, ii) all predictors used for NN inference are available operationally, iii) prediction by the NN is very fast, typically a few seconds per station, and iv) the NN correction can be provided to a human expert who gets to inspect it, compare it with the ROMS output, and see how much correction is brought by the NN. Using this NN residual error correction method, the RMS error in the Oslofjord is reduced by typically 7% for lead times of 24 hours, 17% for 48 hours, and 35% for 96 hours.

How to cite: Tedesco, P., Rabault, J., Sætra, M. L., Kristensen, N. M., Aarnes, O. J., Breivik, Ø., and Mauritzen, C.: Bias Correction of Operational Storm Surge Forecasts Using Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2893, 2022.

EGU22-3977 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

Learning quasi-geostrophic turbulence parametrizations from a posteriori metrics 

Hugo Frezat, Julien Le Sommer, Ronan Fablet, Guillaume Balarac, and Redouane Lguensat

Machine learning techniques are now ubiquitous in the geophysical science community. They have been applied in particular to the prediction of subgrid-scale parametrizations using data that describes small scale dynamics from large scale states. However, these models are then used to predict temporal trajectories, which is not covered by this instantaneous mapping. Following the model trajectory during training can be done using an end-to-end approach, where temporal integration is performed using a neural network. As a consequence, the approach is shown to optimize a posteriori metrics, whereas the classical instantaneous training is limited to a priori ones. When applied on a specific energy backscatter problem, found in quasi-geostrophic turbulent flows, the strategy demonstrates long-term stability and high fidelity statistical performance, without any increase in computational complexity during rollout. These improvements may question the future development of realistic subgrid-scale parametrizations in favor of differentiable solvers, required by the a posteriori strategy.

How to cite: Frezat, H., Le Sommer, J., Fablet, R., Balarac, G., and Lguensat, R.: Learning quasi-geostrophic turbulence parametrizations from a posteriori metrics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3977, 2022.

EGU22-4062 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Climatological Ocean Surface Wave Projections using Deep Learning 

Peter Mlakar, Davide Bonaldo, Antonio Ricchi, Sandro Carniel, and Matjaž Ličer

We present a numerically cheap machine-learning model which accurately emulates the performances of the surface wave model Simulating WAves Near Shore (SWAN) in the Adriatic basin (north-east Mediterranean Sea).

A ResNet50 inspired deep network architecture with customized spatio-temporal attention layers was used, the network being trained on a 1970-1997 dataset of time-dependent features based on wind fields retrieved from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model (The authors acknowledge Dr. Edoardo Bucchignani (Meteorology Laboratory, Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali -CIRA-, Capua, Italy), for providing the COSMO-CLM wind fields). SWAN surface wave model outputs for the period of 1970-1997 are used as labels. The period 1998-2000 is used to cross-validate that the network very accurately reproduces SWAN surface wave features (i.e. significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction) at several locations in the Adriatic basin. 

After successful cross validation, a series of projections of ocean surface wave properties based on climate model projections for the end of 21st century (under RCP 8.5 scenario) are performed, and shifts in the emulated wave field properties are discussed.

How to cite: Mlakar, P., Bonaldo, D., Ricchi, A., Carniel, S., and Ličer, M.: Climatological Ocean Surface Wave Projections using Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4062, 2022.

EGU22-4493 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

Semi-automatic tuning procedure for a GCM targeting continental surfaces: a first experiment using in situ observations 

Maëlle Coulon--Decorzens, Frédérique Cheruy, and Frédéric Hourdin

The tuning or calibration of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is an essential stage for their proper behavior. The need to have the best climate projections in the regions where we live drives the need to tune the models in particular towards the land surface, bearing in mind that the interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface remain a key source of uncertainty in regional-scale climate projections [1].

For a long time, this tuning has been done by hand, based on scientific expertise and has not been sufficiently documented [2]. Recent tuning tools offer the possibility to accelerate climate model development, providing a real tuning formalism as well as a new way to understand climate models. High Tune explorer is one of these statistic tuning tool, involving machine learning and based on uncertainty quantification. It aims to reduce the range of free parameters that allow realistic model behaviour [3]. A new automatic tuning experiment was developed with this tool for the atmospheric component of the IPSL GCM model, LMDZ. It was first tuned at the process level, using several single column test cases compared to large eddies simulations; and then at the global level by targeting radiative metrics at the top of the atmosphere [4].

We propose to add a new step to this semi-automatic tuning procedure targeting atmosphere and land-surface interactions. The first aspect of the proposition is to compare coupled atmosphere-continent simulations (here running LMDZ-ORCHIDEE) with in situ observations from the SIRTA observatory located southwest of Paris. In situ observations provide hourly joint colocated data with a strong potential for the understanding of the processes at stake and their representation in the model. These data are also subject to much lower uncertainties than the satellite inversions with respect to the surface observations. In order to fully benefit from the site observations, the model winds are nudged toward reanalysis. This forces the simulations to follow the effective meteorological sequence, thus allowing the comparison between simulations and observations at the process time scale. The removal of the errors arising from the representation of large-scale dynamics makes the tuning focus on the representation of physical processes «at a given meteorological situation». Finally, the model grid is zoomed in on the SIRTA observatory in order to reduce the computational cost of the simulations while preserving a fine mesh around this observatory.

We show the results of this new tuning step, which succeeds in reducing the domain of acceptable free parameters as well as the dispersion of the simulations. This method, which is less computationally costly than global tuning, is therefore a good way to precondition the latter. It allows the joint tuning of atmospheric and land surface models, traditionally tuned separately [5], and has the advantage of remaining close to the processes and thus improving their understanding.

References:

[1] Cheruy et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061145

[2] Hourdin et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1

[3] Couvreux et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002217

[4] Hourdin et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002225

[5] Cheruy et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002005

How to cite: Coulon--Decorzens, M., Cheruy, F., and Hourdin, F.: Semi-automatic tuning procedure for a GCM targeting continental surfaces: a first experiment using in situ observations, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4493, 2022.

EGU22-4923 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Constrained Generative Adversarial Networks for Improving Earth System Model Precipitation 

Philipp Hess, Markus Drüke, Stefan Petri, Felix Strnad, and Niklas Boers

The simulation of precipitation in numerical Earth system models (ESMs) involves various processes on a wide range of scales, requiring high temporal and spatial resolution for realistic simulations. This can lead to biases in computationally efficient ESMs that have a coarse resolution and limited model complexity. Traditionally, these biases are corrected by relating the distributions of historical simulations with observations [1]. While these methods successfully improve the modelled statistics, unrealistic spatial features that require a larger spatial context are not addressed.

Here we apply generative adversarial networks (GANs) [2] to transform precipitation of the CM2Mc-LPJmL ESM [3] into a bias-corrected and more realistic output. Feature attribution shows that the GAN has correctly learned to identify spatial regions with the largest bias during training. Our method presents a general bias correction framework that can be extended to a wider range of ESM variables to create highly realistic but computationally inexpensive simulations of future climates. We also discuss the generalizability of our approach to projections from CMIP6, given that the GAN is only trained on historical data.

[1] A.J. Cannon et al. "Bias correction of GCM precipitation by quantile mapping: How well do methods preserve changes in quantiles and extremes?." Journal of Climate 28.17 (2015): 6938-6959.

[2] I. Goodfellow et al. "Generative adversarial nets." Advances in neural information processing systems 27 (2014).

[3] M. Drüke et al. "CM2Mc-LPJmL v1.0: Biophysical coupling of a process-based dynamic vegetation model with managed land to a general circulation model." Geoscientific Model Development 14.6 (2021): 4117--4141.

How to cite: Hess, P., Drüke, M., Petri, S., Strnad, F., and Boers, N.: Constrained Generative Adversarial Networks for Improving Earth System Model Precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4923, 2022.

EGU22-5219 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

Neural Partial Differential Equations for Atmospheric Dynamics 

Maximilian Gelbrecht and Niklas Boers

When predicting complex systems such as parts of the Earth system, one typically relies on differential equations which can often be incomplete, missing unknown influences or higher order effects. Using the universal differential equations framework, we can augment the equations with artificial neural networks that can compensate these deficiencies. We show that this can be used to predict the dynamics of high-dimensional spatiotemporally chaotic partial differential equations, such as the ones describing atmospheric dynamics. In a first step towards a hybrid atmospheric model, we investigate the Marshall Molteni Quasigeostrophic Model in the form of a Neural Partial Differential Equation. We use it in synthetic examples where parts of the governing equations are replaced with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and demonstrate how the ANNs can recover those terms.

How to cite: Gelbrecht, M. and Boers, N.: Neural Partial Differential Equations for Atmospheric Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5219, 2022.

EGU22-5631 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Autonomous Assessment of Source Area Distributions for Sections in Lagrangian Particle Release Experiments 

Carola Trahms, Patricia Handmann, Willi Rath, Matthias Renz, and Martin Visbeck

Lagrangian experiments for particle tracing in atmosphere or ocean models and their analysis are a cornerstone of earth-system studies. They cover diverse study objectives such as the identification of pathways or source regions. Data for Lagrangian studies are generated by releasing virtual particles in one or in multiple locations of interest and simulating their advective-diffusive behavior backwards or forwards in time. Identifying main pathways connecting two regions of interest is often done by counting the trajectories that reach both regions. Here, the exact source and target region must be defined manually by a researcher. Manually defining the importance and exact location of these regions introduces a highly subjective perspective into the analysis. Additionally, to investigate all major target regions, all of them must be defined manually and the data must be analyzed accordingly. This human element slows down and complicates large scale analyses with many different sections and possible source areas.

We propose to significantly reduce the manual aspect by automatizing this process. To this end, we combine methods from different areas of machine learning and pattern mining into a sequence of steps. First, unsupervised methods, i.e., clustering, identify possible source areas on a randomized subset of the data. In a successive second step, supervised learning, i.e., classification, labels the positions along the trajectories according to their most probable source area using the previously automatically identified clusters as labels. The results of this approach can then be compared quantitatively to the results of analyses with manual definition of source areas and border-hitting-based labeling of the trajectories. Preliminary findings suggest that this approach could indeed help greatly to objectify and fasten the analysis process for Lagrangian Particle Release Experiments.

How to cite: Trahms, C., Handmann, P., Rath, W., Renz, M., and Visbeck, M.: Autonomous Assessment of Source Area Distributions for Sections in Lagrangian Particle Release Experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5631, 2022.

EGU22-5632 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Data-Driven Sentinel-2 Based Deep Feature Extraction to Improve Insect Species Distribution Models 

Joe Phillips, Ce Zhang, Bryan Williams, and Susan Jarvis

Despite being a vital part of ecosystems, insects are dying out at unprecedented rates across the globe. To help address this in the UK, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) are creating a tool to utilise insect species distribution models (SDMs) for better facilitating future conservation efforts via volunteer-led insect tracking procedures. Based on these SDM models, we explored the inclusion of additional covariate information via 10-20m2 bands of temporally-aggregated Sentinel-2 data taken over the North of England in 2017 to improve the predictive performance. Here, we matched the 10-20m2 resolution of the satellite data to the coarse 1002 insect observation data via four methodologies of increasing complexity. First, we considered standard pixel-based approaches, performing aggregation by taking both the mean and standard deviation over the 10m2 pixels. Second, we explored object-based approaches to address the modifiable areal unit problem by applying the SNIC superpixels algorithm over the extent, with the mean and standard deviation of the pixels taken within each segment. The resulting dataset was then re-projected to a resolution of 100m2 by taking the modal values of the 10m2 pixels, which were provided with the aggregated values of their parent segment. Third, we took the UKCEH-created 2017 Land Cover Map (LCM) dataset and sampled 42,000, random 100m2 areas, evenly distributed about their modal land cover classes. We trained the U-Net Deep Learning model using the Sentinel-2 satellite images and LCM classes, by which data-driven features were extracted from the network over each 100m2 extent. Finally, as with the second approach, we used the superpixels segments instead as the units of analysis, sampling 21,000 segments, and taking the smallest bounding box around each of them. An attention-based U-Net was then adopted to mask each of the segments from their background and extract deep features. In a similar fashion to the second approach, we then re-projected the resulting dataset to a resolution of 100m2, taking the modal segment values accordingly. Using cross-validated AUCs over various species of moths and butterflies, we found that the object-based deep learning approach achieved the best accuracy when used with the SDMs. As such, we conclude that the novel approach of spatially aggregating satellite data via object-based, deep feature extraction has the potential to benefit similar, model-based aggregation needs and catalyse a step-change in ecological and environmental applications in the future.

How to cite: Phillips, J., Zhang, C., Williams, B., and Jarvis, S.: Data-Driven Sentinel-2 Based Deep Feature Extraction to Improve Insect Species Distribution Models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5632, 2022.

EGU22-5681 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

AtmoDist as a new pathway towards quantifying and understanding atmospheric predictability 

Sebastian Hoffmann, Yi Deng, and Christian Lessig

The predictability of the atmosphere is a classical problem that has received much attention from both a theoretical and practical point of view. In this work, we propose to use a purely data-driven method based on a neural network to revisit the problem. The analysis is built upon the recently introduced AtmoDist network that has been trained on high-resolution reanalysis data to provide a probabilistic estimate of the temporal difference between given atmospheric fields, represented by vorticity and divergence. We define the skill of the network for this task as a new measure of atmospheric predictability, hypothesizing that the prediction of the temporal differences by the network will be more susceptible to errors when the atmospheric state is intrinsically less predictable. Preliminary results show that for short timescales (3-48 hours) one sees enhanced predictability in warm season compared to cool season over northern midlatitudes, and lower predictability over ocean compared to land. These findings support the hypothesis that across short timescales, AtmoDist relies on the recurrences of mesoscale convection with coherent spatiotemporal structures to connect spatial evolutions to temporal differences. For example, the prevalence of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the central US in boreal warm season can explain the increase of mesoscale predictability there and oceanic zones marked by greater predictability corresponds well to regions of elevated convective activity such as the Pacific ITCZ. Given the dependence of atmospheric predictability on geographic location, season, and most importantly, timescales, we further apply the method to synoptic scales (2-10 days), where excitation and propagation of large-scale disturbances such as Rossby wave packets are expected to provide the connection between temporal and spatial differences. The design of the AtmoDist network is thereby adapted to the prediction range, for example, the size of the local patches that serve as input to AtmoDist is chosen based on the spatiotemporal atmospheric scales that provide the expected time and space connections.

By providing to the community a powerful, purely data-driven technique for quantifying, evaluating, and interpreting predictability, our work lays the foundation for efficiently detecting the existence of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability and, by further analyzing the mechanism of AtmoDist, understanding the physical origins, which bears major scientific and socioeconomic significances.

How to cite: Hoffmann, S., Deng, Y., and Lessig, C.: AtmoDist as a new pathway towards quantifying and understanding atmospheric predictability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5681, 2022.

EGU22-5746 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Model Output Statistics (MOS) and Machine Learning applied to CAMS O3 forecasts: trade-offs between continuous and categorical skill scores 

Hervé Petetin, Dene Bowdalo, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Marc Guevara, Oriol Jorba, Jan Mateu armengol, Margarida Samso Cabre, Kim Serradell, Albert Soret, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando

Air quality (AQ) forecasting systems are usually built upon physics-based numerical models that are affected by a number of uncertainty sources. In order to reduce forecast errors, first and foremost the bias, they are often coupled with Model Output Statistics (MOS) modules. MOS methods are statistical techniques used to correct raw forecasts at surface monitoring station locations, where AQ observations are available. In this study, we investigate to what extent AQ forecasts can be improved using a variety of MOS methods, including persistence (PERS), moving average (MA), quantile mapping (QM), Kalman Filter (KF), analogs (AN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM). We apply our analysis to the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) regional ensemble median O3 forecasts over the Iberian Peninsula during 2018–2019. A key aspect of our study is the evaluation, which is performed using a very comprehensive set of continuous and categorical metrics at various time scales (hourly to daily), along different lead times (1 to 4 days), and using different meteorological input data (forecast vs reanalyzed).

Our results show that O3 forecasts can be substantially improved using such MOS corrections and that this improvement goes much beyond the correction of the systematic bias. Although it typically affects all lead times, some MOS methods appear more adversely impacted by the lead time. When considering MOS methods relying on meteorological information and comparing the results obtained with IFS forecasts and ERA5 reanalysis, the relative deterioration brought by the use of IFS is minor, which paves the way for their use in operational MOS applications. Importantly, our results also clearly show the trade-offs between continuous and categorical skills and their dependencies on the MOS method. The most sophisticated MOS methods better reproduce O3 mixing ratios overall, with lowest errors and highest correlations. However, they are not necessarily the best in predicting the highest O3 episodes, for which simpler MOS methods can give better results. Although the complex impact of MOS methods on the distribution and variability of raw forecasts can only be comprehended through an extended set of complementary statistical metrics, our study shows that optimally implementing MOS in AQ forecast systems crucially requires selecting the appropriate skill score to be optimized for the forecast application of interest.

Petetin, H., Bowdalo, D., Bretonnière, P.-A., Guevara, M., Jorba, O., Armengol, J. M., Samso Cabre, M., Serradell, K., Soret, A., and Pérez Garcia-Pando, C.: Model Output Statistics (MOS) applied to CAMS O3 forecasts: trade-offs between continuous and categorical skill scores, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-864, in review, 2021.

How to cite: Petetin, H., Bowdalo, D., Bretonnière, P.-A., Guevara, M., Jorba, O., Mateu armengol, J., Samso Cabre, M., Serradell, K., Soret, A., and Pérez García-Pando, C.: Model Output Statistics (MOS) and Machine Learning applied to CAMS O3 forecasts: trade-offs between continuous and categorical skill scores, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5746, 2022.

With the goal of developing a data-driven parameterization of unresolved gravity waves (GW) momentum transport for use in general circulation models (GCMs), we investigate neural network architectures that emulate the Alexander-Dunkerton 1999 (AD99) scheme, an existing physics-based GW parameterization. We analyze the distribution of errors as functions of shear-related metrics in an effort to diagnose the disparity between online and offline performance of the trained emulators, and develop a sampling algorithm to treat biases on the tails of the distribution without adversely impacting mean performance. 

It has been shown in previous efforts [1] that stellar offline performance does not necessarily guarantee adequate online performance, or even stability. Error analysis reveals that the majority of the samples are learned quickly, while some stubborn samples remain poorly represented. We find that the more error-prone samples are those with wind profiles that have large shears– this is consistent with physical intuition as gravity waves encounter a wider range of critical levels when experiencing large shear;  therefore parameterizing gravity waves for these samples is a more difficult, complex task. To remedy this, we develop a sampling strategy that performs a parameterized histogram equalization, a concept borrowed from 1D optimal transport. 

The sampling algorithm uses a linear mapping from the original histogram to a more uniform histogram parameterized by $t \in [0,1]$, where $t=0$ recovers the original distribution and $t=1$ enforces a completely uniform distribution. A given value $t$ assigns each bin a new probability which we then use to sample from each bin. If the new probability is smaller than the original, then we invoke sampling without replacement, but limited to a reduced number consistent with the new probability. If the new probability is larger than the original, then we repeat all the samples in the bin up to some predetermined maximum repeat value (a threshold to avoid extreme oversampling at the tails). We optimize this sampling algorithm with respect to $t$, the maximum repeat value, and the number and distribution (uniform or not) of the histogram bins. The ideal combination of those parameters yields errors that are closer to a constant function of the shear metrics while maintaining high accuracy over the whole dataset. Although we study the performance of this algorithm in the context of training a gravity wave parameterization emulator, this strategy can be used for learning datasets with long tail distributions where the rare samples are associated with low accuracy. Instances of this type of datasets are prevalent in earth system dynamics: launching of gravity waves, and extreme events like hurricanes, heat waves are just a few examples. 

[1] Espinosa, Z. I., A. Sheshadri, G. R. Cain, E. P. Gerber, and K. J. DallaSanta, 2021: A Deep Learning Parameterization of Gravity Wave Drag Coupled to an Atmospheric Global Climate Model,Geophys. Res. Lett., in review. [https://edwinpgerber.github.io/files/espinosa_etal-GRL-revised.pdf]

How to cite: Yang, L. and Gerber, E.: Sampling strategies for data-driven parameterization of gravity wave momentum transport, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5766, 2022.

EGU22-5980 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

Probabilistic forecasting of heat waves with deep learning 

George Miloshevich, Valerian Jacques-Dumas, Pierre Borgnat, Patrice Abry, and Freddy Bouchet
Extreme events such as storms, floods, cold spells and heat waves are expected to have an increasing societal impact with climate change. However the study of rare events is complicated due to computational costs of highly complex models and lack of observations. However, with the help of machine learning synthetic models for forecasting can be constructed and cheaper resampling techniques can be developed. Consequently, this may also clarify more regional impacts of climate change. .

In this work, we perform detailed analysis of how deep neural networks (DNNs) can be used in intermediate-range forecasting of prolonged heat waves of duration of several weeks over synoptic spatial scales. In particular, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) on the 7200 years of a simulation of a climate model. As such, we are interested in probabilistic prediction (committor function in transition theory). Thus we discuss the proper forecasting scores such as Brier skill score, which is popular in weather prediction, and cross-entropy skill, which is based on information-theoretic considerations. They allow us to measure the success of various architectures and investigate more efficient pipelines to extract the predictions from physical observables such as geopotential, temperature and soil moisture. A priori, the committor is hard to visualize as it is a high dimensional function of its inputs, the grid points of the climate model for a given field. Fortunately, we can construct composite maps conditioned to its values which reveal that the CNN is likely relying on the global teleconnection patterns of geopotential. On the other hand, soil moisture signal is more localized with predictive capability over much longer times in future (at least a month). The latter fact relates to the soil-atmosphere interactions. One expects the performance of DNNs to greatly improve with more data. We provide quantitative assessment of this fact. In addition, we offer more details on how the undersampling of negative events affects the knowledge of the committor function. We show that transfer learning helps ensure that the committor is a smooth function along the trajectory. This will be an important quality when such a committor will be applied in rare event algorithms for importance sampling. 
 
While DNNs are universal function approximators the issue of extrapolation can be somewhat problematic. In addressing this question we train a CNN on a dataset generated from a simulation without a diurnal cycle, where the feedbacks between soil moisture and heat waves appear to be significantly stronger. Nevertheless, when the CNN with the given weights is validated on a dataset generated from a simulation with a daily cycle the predictions seem to generalize relatively well, despite a small reduction in skill. This generality validates the approach. 
 

How to cite: Miloshevich, G., Jacques-Dumas, V., Borgnat, P., Abry, P., and Bouchet, F.: Probabilistic forecasting of heat waves with deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5980, 2022.

EGU22-6479 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification for an intermediate complexity climate model 

Benedict Roeder, Jakob Schloer, and Bedartha Goswami

Well-adapted parameters in climate models are essential to make accurate predictions
for future projections. In climate science, the record of precise and comprehensive obser-
vational data is rather short and parameters of climate models are often hand-tuned or
learned from artificially generated data. Due to limited and noisy data, one wants to use
Bayesian models to have access to uncertainties of the inferred parameters. Most popu-
lar algorithms for learning parameters from observational data like the Kalman inversion
approach only provide point estimates of parameters.
In this work, we compare two Bayesian parameter inference approaches applied to the
intermediate complexity model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation by Zebiak & Cane. i)
The "Calibrate, Emulate, Sample" (CES) approach, an extension of the ensemble Kalman
inversion which allows posterior inference by emulating the model via Gaussian Processes
and thereby enables efficient sampling. ii) The simulation-based inference (SBI) approach
where the approximate posterior distribution is learned from simulated model data and
observational data using neural networks.
We evaluate the performance of both approaches by comparing their run times and the
number of required model evaluations, assess the scalability with respect to the number
of inference parameters, and examine their posterior distributions.

How to cite: Roeder, B., Schloer, J., and Goswami, B.: Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification for an intermediate complexity climate model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6479, 2022.

EGU22-6553 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Can simple machine learning methods predict concentrations of OH better than state of the art chemical mechanisms? 

Sebastian Hickman, Paul Griffiths, James Weber, and Alex Archibald

Concentrations of the hydroxyl radical, OH, control the lifetime of methane, carbon monoxide and other atmospheric constituents.  The short lifetime of OH, coupled with the spatial and temporal variability in its sources and sinks, makes accurate simulation of its concentration particularly challenging. To date, machine learning (ML) methods have been infrequently applied to global studies of atmospheric chemistry.

We present an assessment of the use of ML methods for the challenging case of simulation of the hydroxyl radical at the global scale, and show that several approaches are indeed viable.  We use observational data from the recent NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission to show that machine learning methods are comparable in skill to state of the art forward chemical models and are capable, if appropriately applied, of simulating OH to within observational uncertainty.  

We show that a simple ridge regression model is a better predictor of OH concentrations in the remote atmosphere than a state of the art chemical mechanism implemented in a forward box model. Our work shows that machine learning may be an accurate emulator of chemical concentrations in atmospheric chemistry, which would allow a significant speed up in climate model runtime due to the speed and efficiency of simple machine learning methods. Furthermore, we show that relatively few predictors are required to simulate OH concentrations, suggesting that the variability in OH can be quantitatively accounted for by few observables with the potential to simplify the numerical simulation of atmospheric levels of key species such as methane. 

How to cite: Hickman, S., Griffiths, P., Weber, J., and Archibald, A.: Can simple machine learning methods predict concentrations of OH better than state of the art chemical mechanisms?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6553, 2022.

EGU22-6674 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

The gravity wave parameterization calibration problem: A 1D QBO model testbed 

Ofer Shamir, L. Minah Yang, David S. Connelly, and Edwin P. Gerber

An essential step in implementing any new parameterization is calibration, where the parameterization is adjusted to work with an existing model and yield some desired improvement. In the context of gravity wave (GW) momentum transport, calibration is necessitated by the facts that: (i) Some GWs are always at least partially resolved by the model, and hence a parameterization should only account for the missing waves. Worse, the parameterization may need to correct for the misrepresentation of under-resolved GWs, i.e., coarse vertical resolution can bias GW breaking level, leading to erroneous momentum forcing. (ii) The parameterized waves depend on the resolved solution for both their sources and dissipation, making them susceptible to model biases. Even a "perfect" parameterization could then yield an undesirable result, e.g., an unrealistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO).  While model-specific calibration is required, one would like a general "recipe" suitable for most models. From a practical point of view, the adoption of a new parameterization will be hindered by a too-demanding calibration process. This issue is of particular concern in the context of data-driven methods, where the number of tunable degrees of freedom is large (possibly in the millions). Thus, more judicious ways for addressing the calibration step are required. 

To address the above issues, we develop a 1D QBO model, where the "true" gravity wave momentum deposition is determined from a source distribution and critical level breaking, akin to a traditional physics-based GW parameterization. The control parameters associated with the source consist of the total wave flux (related to the total precipitation for convectively generated waves) and the spectrum width (related to the depth of convection). These parameters can be varied to mimic the variability in GW sources between different models, i.e., biases in precipitation variability. In addition, the model’s explicit diffusivity and vertical advection can be varied to mimic biases in model numerics and circulation, respectively. The model thus allows us to assess the ability of a data-driven parameterization to (i) extrapolate, capturing the response of GW momentum transport to a change in the model parameters and (ii) be calibrated, adjusted to maintain the desired simulation of the QBO in response to a change in the model parameters. The first property is essential for a parameterization to be used for climate prediction, the second, for a parameterization to be used at all. We focus in particular on emulators of the GW momentum transport based on neural network and regression trees, contrasting their ability to satisfy both of these goals.  

 

How to cite: Shamir, O., Yang, L. M., Connelly, D. S., and Gerber, E. P.: The gravity wave parameterization calibration problem: A 1D QBO model testbed, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6674, 2022.

All oceanic general circulation models (GCMs) include parametrizations of the unresolved subgrid-scale (eddy) effects on the large-scale motions, even at the (so-called) eddy-permitting resolutions. Among the many problems associated with the development of accurate and efficient eddy parametrizations, one problem is a reliable decomposition of a turbulent flow into resolved and unresolved (subgrid) scale components. Finding an objective way to separate eddies is a fundamental, critically important and unresolved problem. 
Here a statistically consistent correlation-based flow decomposition method (CBD) that employs the Gaussian filtering kernel with geographically varying topology – consistent with the observed local spatial correlations – achieves the desired scale separation. CBD is demonstrated for an eddy-resolving solution of the classical midlatitude double-gyre quasigeostrophic (QG) circulation, that possess two asymmetric gyres of opposite circulations and a strong meandering eastward jet, such as the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic and Kuroshio in the North Pacific. CBD facilitates a comprehensive analysis of the feedbacks of eddies on the large-scale flow via the transient part of the eddy forcing. A  `product integral' based on time-lagged correlation between the diagnosed eddy forcing and the evolving large-scale flow, uncovers robust `eddy backscatter' mechanism. Data-driven augmentation of non-eddy-resolving ocean model by stochastically-emulated eddy fields allows to restore the missing eddy-driven features, such as the merging western boundary currents, their eastward extension and low-frequency variabilities of gyres.

  • N. Argawal, Ryzhov, E.A., Kondrashov, D., and P.S. Berloff, 2021: Correlation-based flow decomposition and statistical analysis of the eddy forcing, Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 924, A5. doi:10.1017/jfm.2021.604

  • N. Argawal, Kondrashov, D., Dueben, P., Ryzhov, E.A., and P.S. Berloff, 2021: A comparison of data-driven approaches to build low-dimensional ocean modelsJournal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, doi:10.1029/2021MS002537

 

How to cite: Kondrashov, D.: Towards physics-informed stochastic parametrizations of subgrid physics in ocean models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6859, 2022.

EGU22-7044 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Seismic Event Characterization using Manifold Learning Methods 

Yuri Bregman, Yochai Ben Horin, Yael Radzyner, Itay Niv, Maayan Kahlon, and Neta Rabin

Manifold learning is a branch of machine learning that focuses on compactly representing complex data-sets based on their fundamental intrinsic parameters. One such method is diffusion maps, which reduces the dimension of the data while preserving its geometric structure. In this work, diffusion maps are applied to several seismic event characterization tasks. The first task is automatic earthquake-explosion discrimination, which is an essential component of nuclear test monitoring. We also use this technique to automatically identify mine explosions and aftershocks following large earthquakes. Identification of such events helps to lighten the analysts’ burden and allow for timely production of reviewed seismic bulletins.

The proposed methods begin with a pre-processing stage in which a time–frequency representation is extracted from each seismogram while capturing common properties of seismic events and overcoming magnitude differences. Then, diffusion maps are used in order to construct a low-dimensional model of the original data. In this new low-dimensional space, classification analysis is carried out.

The algorithm’s discrimination performance is demonstrated on several seismic data sets. For instance, using the seismograms from EIL station, we identify arrivals that were caused by explosions at the nearby Eshidiya mine in Jordan. The model provides a visualization of the data, organized by its intrinsic factors. Thus, along with the discrimination results, we provide a compact organization of the data that characterizes the activity patterns in the mine.

Our results demonstrate the potential and strength of the manifold learning based approach, which may be suitable to other in other geophysics domains.

How to cite: Bregman, Y., Ben Horin, Y., Radzyner, Y., Niv, I., Kahlon, M., and Rabin, N.: Seismic Event Characterization using Manifold Learning Methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7044, 2022.

Accurate streamflow forecasts can provide guidance for reservoir managements, which can regulate river flows, manage water resources and mitigate flood damages. One popular way to forecast streamflow is to use bias-corrected meteorological forecasts to drive a calibrated hydrological model. But for cascade reservoirs, such approaches suffer significant deficiencies because of the difficulty to simulate reservoir operations by physical approach and the uncertainty of meteorological forecasts over small catchment. Another popular way is to forecast streamflow with machine learning method, which can fit a statistical model without inputs like reservoir operating rules. Thus, we integrate meteorological forecasts, land surface hydrological model and machine learning to forecast hourly streamflow over the Yantan catchment, which is one of the cascade reservoirs in the Hongshui River with streamflow influenced by both the upstream reservoir water release and the rainfall runoff process within the catchment.

Before evaluating the streamflow forecast system, it is necessary to investigate the skill by means of a series of specific hindcasts that isolate potential sources of predictability, like meteorological forcing and the initial condition (IC). Here, we use ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)/reverse ESP (revESP) method to explore the impact of IC on hourly stream prediction. Results show that the effect of IC on runoff prediction is 16 hours. In the next step, we evaluate the hourly streamflow hindcasts during the rainy seasons of 2013-2017 performed by the forecast system. We use European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts perturbed forecast forcing from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE-ECMWF) as meteorological inputs to perform the hourly streamflow hindcasts. Compared with the ESP, the hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approach reduces probabilistic and deterministic forecast errors by 6% during the first 7 days. After integrated the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method into the system, the deterministic forecast error can be further reduced by 6% in the first 72 hours. We also use historically observed streamflow to drive another LSTM model to perform an LSTM-only streamflow forecast. Results show that its skill sharply dropped after the first 24 hours, which indicates that the meteorology-hydrology modeling approach can improve the streamflow forecast.

How to cite: Liu, J. and Yuan, X.: Reservoir inflow forecast by combining meteorological ensemble forecast, physical hydrological simulation and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7093, 2022.

EGU22-7113 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

Coupling regional air quality simulations of EURAD-IM with street canyon observations - a machine learning approach 

Charlotte Neubacher, Philipp Franke, Alexander Heinlein, Axel Klawonn, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr, and Anne-Caroline Lange

State of the art atmospheric chemistry transport models on regional scales as the EURAD-IM (EURopean Air pollution Dispersion-Inverse Model) simulate physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere to predict the dispersion of air pollutants. With EURAD-IM’s 4D-var data assimilation application, detailed analyses of the air quality can be conducted. These analyses allow for improvements of atmospheric chemistry forecast as well as emission source strength assessments. Simulations of EURAD-IM can be nested to a spatial resolution of 1 km, which does not correspond to the urban scale. Thus, inner city street canyon observations cannot be exploited since here, anthropogenic pollution vary vastly over scales of 100 m or less.

We address this issue by implementing a machine learning (ML) module into EURAD-IM, forming a hybrid model that enable bridging the representativeness gap between model resolution and inner-city observations. Thus, the data assimilation of EURAD-IM is strengthened by additional observations in urban regions. Our approach of the ML module is based on a neural network (NN) with relevant environmental information of street architecture, traffic density, meteorology, and atmospheric pollutant concentrations from EURAD-IM as well as the street canyon observation of pollutants as input features. The NN then maps the observed concentration from street canyon scale to larger spatial scales.

We are currently working with a fully controllable test environment created from EURAD-IM forecasts of the years 2020 and 2021 at different spatial resolutions. Here, the ML model maps the high-resolution hourly NO2 concentration to the concentration of the low resolution model grid. It turns out that it is very difficult for NNs to learn the hourly concentrations with equal accuracy using diurnal cycles of pollutant concentrations. Thus, we develop a model that uses an independent NN for each hour to support time-of-day learning. This allows to reduce the training error by a factor of 102. As a proof of concept, we trained the ML model in an overfitting regime where the mean squared training error reduce to 0.001% for each hour. Furthermore, by optimizing the hyperparameters and introducing regularization terms to reduce the overfitting, we achieved a validation error of 9−12% during night and 9−16% during day.

How to cite: Neubacher, C., Franke, P., Heinlein, A., Klawonn, A., Kiendler-Scharr, A., and Lange, A.-C.: Coupling regional air quality simulations of EURAD-IM with street canyon observations - a machine learning approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7113, 2022.

EGU22-7135 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

How to calibrate a climate model with neural network based physics? 

Blanka Balogh, David Saint-Martin, and Aurélien Ribes

Unlike the traditional subgrid scale parameterizations used in climate models, current neural network (NN) parameterizations are only tuned offline, by minimizing a loss function on outputs from high resolution models. This approach often leads to numerical instabilities and long-term biases. Here, we propose a method to design tunable NN parameterizations and calibrate them online. The calibration of the NN parameterization is achieved in two steps. First, some model parameters are included within the NN model input. This NN model is fitted at once for a range of values of the parameters, using an offline metric. Second, once the NN parameterization has been plugged into the climate model, the parameters included among the NN inputs are optimized with respect to an online metric quantifying errors on long-term statistics. We illustrate our method with two simple dynamical systems. Our approach significantly reduces long-term biases of the climate model with NN based physics.

How to cite: Balogh, B., Saint-Martin, D., and Ribes, A.: How to calibrate a climate model with neural network based physics?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7135, 2022.

EGU22-8279 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Using deep learning to improve the spatial resolution of the ocean model 

Ihor Hromov, Georgy Shapiro, Jose Ondina, Sanjay Sharma, and Diego Bruciaferri

For the ocean models, the increase of spatial resolution is a matter of significant importance and thorough research. Computational resources limit our capabilities of the increase in model resolution. This constraint is especially true for the traditional dynamical models, for which an increase of a factor of two in the horizontal resolution results in simulation times increased approximately tenfold. One of the potential methods to relax this limitation is to use Artificial Intelligence methods, such as Neural Networks (NN). In this research, NN is applied to ocean circulation modelling. More specifically, NN is used on data output from the dynamical model to increase the spatial resolution of the model output. The main dataset being used is Sea Surface Temperature data in 0.05- and 0.02-degree horizontal resolutions for Irish Sea. 

Several NN architectures were applied to address the task. Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Multi-level Wavelet CNN. They are used in other areas of knowledge in problems related to the increase of resolution. The work will contrast and compare the efficiency of and present a provisional assessment of the efficiency of each of the methods. 

How to cite: Hromov, I., Shapiro, G., Ondina, J., Sharma, S., and Bruciaferri, D.: Using deep learning to improve the spatial resolution of the ocean model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8279, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8279, 2022.

EGU22-8334 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Information theory solution approach for air-pollution sensors' location-allocation problem 

Barak Fishbain, Ziv Mano, and Shai Kendler

Urbanization and industrialization processes are accompanied by adverse environmental effects, such as air pollution. The first action in reducing air pollution is the detection of its source(s). This is achievable through monitoring. When deploying a sensor array, one must balance between the array's cost and performance. This optimization problem is known as the location-allocation problem. Here, a new solution approach, which draws its foundation from information theory is presented. The core of the method is air-pollution levels computed by a dispersion model in various meteorological conditions. The sensors are then placed in the locations which information theory identifies as the most uncertain. The method is compared with two other heuristics typically applied for solving the location-allocation problem. In the first, sensors are randomly deployed, in the second, the sensors are placed according to the maximal cumulative pollution levels (i.e., hot spot). For the comparison two simulated scenes were evaluated, one contains point sources and buildings, and the other also contains line sources (i.e., roads). It shows that the Entropy method resulted in a superior sensors' deployment compared to the other two approaches in terms of source apportionment and dense pollution field reconstruction from the sensors' network measurements.

How to cite: Fishbain, B., Mano, Z., and Kendler, S.: Information theory solution approach for air-pollution sensors' location-allocation problem, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8334, 2022.

EGU22-8719 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Multi-station Multivariate Multi-step Convection Nowcasting with Deep Neural Networks 

Sandy Chkeir, Aikaterini Anesiadou, and Riccardo Biondi

Extreme weather nowcasting has always been a challenging task in meteorology. Many research studies have been conducted to accurately forecast extreme weather events, related to rain rates and/or wind speed thresholds, in spatio-temporal scales. Over decades, this field gained attention in the artificial intelligence community which is aiming towards creating more accurate models using the latest algorithms and methods.  

In this work, within the H2020 SESAR ALARM project, we aim to nowcast rain and wind speed as target features using different input configurations of the available sources such as weather stations, lightning detectors, radar, GNSS receivers, radiosonde and radio occultations data. This nowcasting task has been firstly conducted at 14 local stations around Milano Malpensa Airport as a short-term temporal multi-step forecasting. At a second step, all stations will be combined, meaning that the forecasting becomes a spatio-temporal problem. Concretely, we want to investigate the predicted rain and wind speed values using the different inputs for two case scenarios: for each station, and joining all stations together. 

The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, e.g. non-stationarity of the driving series of each weather feature, makes the predictions unreliable and inaccurate and thus dealing with these data is a very delicate task. For this reason, we have devoted some work to cleaning, feature engineering and preparing the raw data before feeding them into the model architectures. We have managed to preprocess large amounts of data for local stations around the airport, and studied the feasibility of nowcasting rain and wind speed targets using different data sources altogether. The temporal multivariate driving series have high dimensionality and we’ve  made multi-step predictions for the defined target functions.

We study and test different machine learning architectures starting from simple multi-layer perceptrons to convolutional models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) for temporal and spatio-temporal nowcasting. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) encoder decoder architecture outperforms other models achieving more accurate predictions for each station separately.  Furthermore, to predict the targets in a spatio-temporal scale, we will deploy a 2-layer spatio-temporal stacked LSTM model consisting of independent LSTM models per location in the first LSTM layer, and another LSTM layer to finally predict targets for multi-steps ahead. And the results obtained with different algorithm architectures applied to a dense network of sensors are to be reported.

How to cite: Chkeir, S., Anesiadou, A., and Biondi, R.: Multi-station Multivariate Multi-step Convection Nowcasting with Deep Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8719, 2022.

EGU22-8852 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Time-dependent Hillshades: Dispelling the Shadow Curse of Machine Learning Applications in Earth Observation 

Freddie Kalaitzis, Gonzalo Mateo-Garcia, Kevin Dobbs, Dolores Garcia, Jason Stoker, and Giovanni Marchisio

We show that machine learning models learn and perform better when they know where to expect shadows, through hillshades modeled to the time of imagery acquisition.

Shadows are detrimental to all machine learning applications on satellite imagery. Prediction tasks like semantic / instance segmentation, object detection, counting of rivers, roads, buildings, trees, all rely on crisp edges and colour gradients that are confounded by the presence of shadows in passive optical imagery, which rely on the sun’s illumination for reflectance values.

Hillshading is a standard technique for enriching a mapped terrain with relief effects, which is done by emulating the shadow caused by steep terrain and/or tall vegetation. A hillshade that is modeled to the time of day and year can be easily derived through a basic form of ray tracing on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) (also known as a bare-earth DEM) or Digital Surface Model (DSM) given the sun's altitude and azimuth angles. In this work, we use lidar-derived DSMs. A DSM-based hillshade conveys a lot more information on shadows than a bare-earth DEM alone, namely any non-terrain vertical features (e.g. vegetation, buildings) resolvable at a 1-m resolution. The use of this level of fidelity of DSM for hillshading and its input to a machine learning model is novel and the main contribution of our work. Any uncertainty over the angles can be captured through a composite multi-angle hillshade, which shows the range where shadows can appear throughout the day.

We show the utility of time-dependent hillshades in the daily mapping of rivers from Very High Resolution (VHR) passive optical and lidar-derived terrain data [1]. Specifically, we leverage the acquisition timestamps within a daily 3m PlanetScope product over a 2-year period. Given a datetime and geolocation, we model the sun’s azimuth and elevation relative to that geolocation at that time of day and year. We can then generate a time-dependent hillshade and therefore locate shadows in any given time within that 2-year period. In our ablation study we show that, out of all the lidar-derived products, the time-dependent hillshades contribute a 8-9% accuracy improvement in the semantic segmentation of rivers. This indicates that a semantic segmentation machine learning model is less prone to errors of commission (false positives), by better disambiguating shadows from dark water.

Time-dependent hillshades are not currently used in ML for EO use-cases, yet they can be useful. All that is needed to produce them is access to high-resolution bare-earth DEMs, like that of the US National 3D Elevation Program covering the entire continental U.S at 1-meter resolution, or creation of DSMs from the lidar point cloud data itself. As the coverage of DSM and/or DEM products expands to more parts of the world, time-dependent hillshades could become as commonplace as cloud masks in EO use cases.


[1] Dolores Garcia, Gonzalo Mateo-Garcia, Hannes Bernhardt, Ron Hagensieker, Ignacio G. Lopez-Francos, Jonathan Stock, Guy Schumann, Kevin Dobbs and Freddie Kalaitzis Pix2Streams: Dynamic Hydrology Maps from Satellite-LiDAR Fusion. AI for Earth Sciences Workshop, NeurIPS 2020

How to cite: Kalaitzis, F., Mateo-Garcia, G., Dobbs, K., Garcia, D., Stoker, J., and Marchisio, G.: Time-dependent Hillshades: Dispelling the Shadow Curse of Machine Learning Applications in Earth Observation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8852, 2022.

EGU22-9348 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Data-driven modelling of soil moisture: mapping organic soils 

Doran Khamis, Matt Fry, Hollie Cooper, Ross Morrison, and Eleanor Blyth

Improving our understanding of soil moisture and hydraulics is crucial for flood prediction, smart agriculture, modelling nutrient and pollutant spread and evaluating the role of land as a sink or source of carbon and other greenhouse gases. State of the art land surface models rely on poorly-resolved soil textural information to parametrise arbitrarily layered soil models; soils rich in organic matter – key to understanding the role of the land in achieving net zero carbon – are not well modelled. Here, we build a predictive data-driven model of soil moisture using a neural network composed of transformer layers to process time series data from point-sensors (precipitation gauges and sensor-derived estimates of potential evaporation) and convolutional layers to process spatial atmospheric driving data and contextual information (topography, land cover and use, location and catchment behaviour of water bodies). We train the model using data from the COSMOS-UK sensor network and soil moisture satellite products and compare the outputs with JULES to investigate where and why the models diverge. Finally, we predict regions of high peat content and propose a way to combine theory with our data-driven approach to move beyond the sand-silt-clay modelling framework.

How to cite: Khamis, D., Fry, M., Cooper, H., Morrison, R., and Blyth, E.: Data-driven modelling of soil moisture: mapping organic soils, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9348, 2022.

EGU22-9452 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Eddy identification from along track altimeter data using deep learning: EDDY project 

Adili Abulaitijiang, Eike Bolmer, Ribana Roscher, Jürgen Kusche, Luciana Fenoglio, and Sophie Stolzenberger

Eddies are circular rotating water masses, which are usually generated near the large ocean currents, e.g., Gulf Stream. Monitoring eddies and gaining knowledge on eddy statistics over a large region are important for fishery, marine biology studies, and testing ocean models.

At mesoscale, eddies are observed in radar altimetry, and methods have been developed to identify, track and classify them in gridded maps of sea surface height derived from multi-mission data sets. However, this procedure has drawbacks since much information is lost in the gridded maps. Inevitably, the spatial and temporal resolution of the original altimetry data degrades during the gridding process. On the other hand, the task of identifying eddies has been a post-analysis process on the gridded dataset, which is, by far, not meaningful for near-real time applications or forecasts. In the EDDY project at the University of Bonn, we aim to develop methods for identifying eddies directly from along track altimetry data via a machine (deep) learning approach.

At the early stage of the project, we started with gridded altimetry maps to set up and test the machine learning algorithm. The gridded datasets are not limited to multi-mission gridded maps from AVISO, but also include the high resolution (~6 km) ocean modeling simulation dataset (e.g., FESOM, Finite Element Sea ice Ocean Model). Later, the gridded maps are sampled along the real altimetry ground tracks to obtain the single-track altimetry data. Reference data, as the training set for machine learning, will be produced by open-source geometry-based approach (e.g., py-eddy-tracker, Mason et al., 2014) with additional constraints like Okubo-Weiss parameter and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) profile signatures.

In this presentation, we introduce the EDDY project and show the results from the machine learning approach based on gridded datasets for the Gulf stream area for the period 2017, and first results of single-track eddy identification in the region.

How to cite: Abulaitijiang, A., Bolmer, E., Roscher, R., Kusche, J., Fenoglio, L., and Stolzenberger, S.: Eddy identification from along track altimeter data using deep learning: EDDY project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9452, 2022.

DINCAE (Data INterpolating Convolutional Auto-Encoder) is a neural network to reconstruct missing data (e.g. obscured by clouds or gaps between tracks) in satellite data. Contrary to standard image reconstruction (in-painting) with neural networks, this application requires a method to handle missing data (or data with variable accuracy) already in the training phase. Instead of using a cost function based on the mean square error, the neural network (U-Net type of network) is optimized by minimizing the negative log likelihood assuming a Gaussian distribution (characterized by a mean and a variance). As a consequence, the neural network also provides an expected error variance of the reconstructed field (per pixel and per time instance).

 

In this updated version DINCAE 2.0, the code was rewritten in Julia and a new type of skip connection has been implemented which showed superior performance with respect to the previous version. The method has also been extended to handle multivariate data (an example will be shown with sea-surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration and wind fields). The improvement of this network is demonstrated in the Adriatic Sea. 

 

Convolutional networks work usually with gridded data as input. This is however a limitation for some data types used in oceanography and in Earth Sciences in general, where observations are often irregularly sampled.  The first layer of the neural network and the cost function have been modified so that unstructured data can also be used as inputs to obtain gridded fields as output. To demonstrate this, the neural network is applied to along-track altimetry data in the Mediterranean Sea. Results from a 20-year reconstruction are presented and validated. Hyperparameters are determined using Bayesian optimization and minimizing the error relative to a development dataset.

How to cite: Barth, A., Alvera-Azcárate, A., Troupin, C., and Beckers, J.-M.: A multivariate convolutional autoencoder to reconstruct satellite data with an error estimate based on non-gridded observations: application to sea surface height, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9578, 2022.

EGU22-9734 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

High Impact Weather Forecasts in Southern Brazil using Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and Machine Learning 

Cesar Beneti, Jaqueline Silveira, Leonardo Calvetti, Rafael Inouye, Lissette Guzman, Gustavo Razera, and Sheila Paz

In South America, southern parts of Brazil, Paraguay and northeast Argentina are regions particularly prone to high impact weather (intensive lightning activity, high precipitation, hail, flash floods and occasional tornadoes), mostly associated with extra-tropical cyclones, frontal systems and Mesoscale Convective Systems. In the south of Brazil, agricultural industry and electrical power generation are the main economic activities. This region is responsible for 35% of all hydro-power energy production in the country, with long transmission lines to the main consumer regions, which are severely affected by these extreme weather conditions. Intense precipitation events are a common cause of electricity outages in southern Brazil, which ranks as one of the regions in Brazil with the highest annual lightning incidence, as well. Accurate precipitation forecasts can mitigate this kind of problem. Despite improvements in the precipitation estimates and forecasts, some difficulties remain to increase the accuracy, mainly related to the temporal and spatial location of the events. Although several options are available, it is difficult to identify which deterministic forecast is the best or the most reliable forecast. Probabilistic products from large ensemble prediction systems provide a guide to forecasters on how confident they should be about the deterministic forecast, and one approach is using post processing methods such as machine learning (ML), which has been used to identify patterns in historical data to correct for systematic ensemble biases.

In this paper, we present a study, in which we used 20 members from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and 50 members from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)  during 2019-2021,  for seven daily precipitation thresholds: 0-1.0mm, 1.0mm-15mm, 15mm-40mm, 40mm-55mm, 55mm-105mm, 105mm-155mm and over 155mm. A ML algorithm was developed for each day, up to 15 days of forecasts, and several skill scores were calculated, for these daily precipitation thresholds. Initially, to select the best members of the ensembles, a gradient boosting algorithm was applied, in order to improve the skill of the model and reduce processing time. After preprocessing the data, a random forest classifier was used to train the model. Based on hyperparameter sensitivity tests, the random forest required 500 trees, a maximum tree depth of 12 levels, at least 20 samples per leaf node, and the minimization of entropy for splits. In order to evaluate the models, we used a cross-validation on a limited data sample. The procedure has a single parameter that refers to the number of groups that a given data sample is to be split into. In our work we created a twenty-six fold cross validation with 30 days per fold to verify the forecasts. The results obtained by the RF were evaluated through estimated value versus observed value. For the forecast range, we found values above 75% for the precision metrics in the first 3 days, and around 68% in the next days. The recall was also around 80% throughout the entire forecast range,  with promising results to apply this technique operationally, which is our intent in the near future. 

How to cite: Beneti, C., Silveira, J., Calvetti, L., Inouye, R., Guzman, L., Razera, G., and Paz, S.: High Impact Weather Forecasts in Southern Brazil using Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9734, 2022.

EGU22-9833 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Deep learning for laboratory earthquake prediction and autoregressive forecasting of fault zone stress 

Laura Laurenti, Elisa Tinti, Fabio Galasso, Luca Franco, and Chris Marone

Earthquakes forecasting and prediction have long, and in some cases sordid, histories but recent work has rekindled interest in this area based on advances in short-term early warning, hazard assessment for human induced seismicity and successful prediction of laboratory earthquakes.

In the lab, frictional stick-slip events provide an analog for the full seismic cycle and such experiments have played a central role in understanding the onset of failure and the dynamics of earthquake rupture. Lab earthquakes are also ideal targets for machine learning (ML) techniques because they can be produced in long sequences under a wide range of controlled conditions. Indeed, recent work shows that labquakes can be predicted from fault zone acoustic emissions (AE). Here, we generalize these results and explore additional ML and deep learning (DL) methods for labquake prediction. Key questions include whether improved ML/DL methods can outperform existing models, including prediction based on limited training, or if such methods can successfully forecast beyond a single seismic cycle for aperiodic failure. We describe significant improvements to existing methods of labquake prediction using simple AE statistics (variance) and DL models such as Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolution Neural Network (CNN). We demonstrate: 1) that LSTMs and CNNs predict labquakes under a variety of conditions, including pre-seismic creep, aperiodic events and alternating slow and fast events and 2) that fault zone stress can be predicted with fidelity (accuracy in terms of R2 > 0.92), confirming that acoustic energy is a fingerprint of the fault zone stress. We predict also time to start of failure (TTsF) and time to the end of Failure (TTeF). Interestingly, TTeF is successfully predicted in all seismic cycles, while the TTsF prediction varies with the amount of fault creep before an event. We also report on a novel autoregressive forecasting method to predict future fault zone states, focusing on shear stress. This forecasting model is distinct from existing predictive models, which predict only the current state. We compare three modern approaches in sequence modeling framework: LSTM, Temporal Convolution Network (TCN) and Transformer Network (TF). Results are encouraging in forecasting the shear stress at long-term future horizons, autoregressively. Our ML/DL prediction models outperform the state of the art and our autoregressive model represents a novel forecasting framework that could enhance current methods of earthquake forecasting.

How to cite: Laurenti, L., Tinti, E., Galasso, F., Franco, L., and Marone, C.: Deep learning for laboratory earthquake prediction and autoregressive forecasting of fault zone stress, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9833, 2022.

EGU22-10157 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

How land cover changes affect ecosystem productivity 

Andreas Krause, Phillip Papastefanou, Konstantin Gregor, Lucia Layritz, Christian S. Zang, Allan Buras, Xing Li, Jingfeng Xiao, and Anja Rammig

Historically, many forests worldwide were cut down and replaced by agriculture. While this substantially reduced terrestrial carbon storage, the impacts of land-use change on ecosystem productivity have not been adequately resolved yet.

Here, we apply the machine learning algorithm Random Forests to predict the potential gross primary productivity (GPP) of forests, grasslands, and croplands around the globe using high-resolution datasets of satellite-derived GPP, land cover, and 20 environmental predictor variables.

With a mean potential GPP of around 2.0 kg C m-2 yr-1 forests are the most productive land cover on two thirds of the global suitable area, while grasslands and croplands are on average 23 and 9% less productive, respectively. These findings are robust against alternative input datasets and algorithms, even though results are somewhat sensitive to the underlying land cover map.

Combining our potential GPP maps with a land-use reconstruction from the Land-Use Harmonization project (LUH2) we estimate that historical agricultural expansion reduced global GPP by around 6.3 Gt C yr-1 (4.4%). This reduction in GPP induced by land cover changes is amplified in some future scenarios as a result of ongoing deforestation but partly reversed in other scenarios due to agricultural abandonment.

Finally, we compare our potential GPP maps to simulations from eight CMIP6 Earth System Models with an explicit representation of land management. While the mean GPP values of the ESM ensemble show reasonable agreement with our estimates, individual Earth System Models simulate large deviations both in terms of mean GPP values of different land cover types as well as in their spatial variations. Reducing these model biases would lead to more reliable simulations concerning the potential of land-based mitigation policies.

How to cite: Krause, A., Papastefanou, P., Gregor, K., Layritz, L., Zang, C. S., Buras, A., Li, X., Xiao, J., and Rammig, A.: How land cover changes affect ecosystem productivity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10157, 2022.

EGU22-10519 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

Adaptive Bias Correction for Improved Subseasonal Forecasting 

Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Genevieve Flaspohler, Miruna Oprescu, Judah Cohen, Franklyn Wang, Sean Knight, Maria Geogdzhayeva, Sam Levang, Ernest Fraenkel, and Lester Mackey

Improving our ability to forecast the weather and climate is of interest to all sectors of the economy and government agencies from the local to the national level. In fact, weather forecasts 0-10 days ahead and climate forecasts seasons to decades ahead are currently used operationally in decision-making, and the accuracy and reliability of these forecasts has improved consistently in recent decades. However, many critical applications require subseasonal forecasts with lead times in between these two timescales. Subseasonal forecasting—predicting temperature and precipitation 2-6 weeks ahead—is indeed critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Yet, accurate forecasts for the subseasonal regime are still lacking due to the chaotic nature of weather.

While short-term forecasting accuracy is largely sustained by physics-based dynamical models, these deterministic methods have limited subseasonal accuracy due to chaos. Indeed, subseasonal forecasting has long been considered a “predictability desert” due to its complex dependence on both local weather and global climate variables. Nevertheless, recent large-scale research efforts have advanced the subseasonal capabilities of operational physics-based models, while parallel efforts have demonstrated the value of machine learning and deep learning methods in improving subseasonal forecasting.

To counter the systematic errors of dynamical models at longer lead times, we introduce an adaptive bias correction (ABC) method that combines state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts with observations using machine learning. We evaluate our adaptive bias correction method in the contiguous U.S. over the years 2011-2020 and demonstrate consistent improvement over standard meteorological baselines, state-of-the-art learning models, and the leading subseasonal dynamical models, as measured by root mean squared error and uncentered anomaly correlation skill. When applied to the United States’ operational climate forecast system (CFSv2), ABC improves temperature forecasting skill by 20-47% and precipitation forecasting skill by 200-350%. When applied to the leading subseasonal model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ABC improves temperature forecasting skill by 8-38% and precipitation forecasting skill by 40-80%.

Overall, we find that de-biasing dynamical forecasts with our learned adaptive bias correction method yields an effective and computationally inexpensive strategy for generating improved subseasonal forecasts and building the next generation of subseasonal forecasting benchmarks. To facilitate future subseasonal benchmarking and development, we release our model code through the subseasonal_toolkit Python package and our routinely updated SubseasonalClimateUSA dataset through the subseasonal_data Python package.

How to cite: Mouatadid, S., Orenstein, P., Flaspohler, G., Oprescu, M., Cohen, J., Wang, F., Knight, S., Geogdzhayeva, M., Levang, S., Fraenkel, E., and Mackey, L.: Adaptive Bias Correction for Improved Subseasonal Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10519, 2022.

EGU22-10711 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

A new approach toward integrated inversion of reflection seismic and gravity datasets using deep learning 

Mahtab Rashidifard, Jeremie Giraud, Mark Jessell, and Mark Lindsay

Reflection seismic data, although sparsely distributed due to the high cost of acquisition, is the only type of data that can provide high-resolution images of the crust to reveal deep subsurface structures and the architectural complexity that may vector attention to minerally prospective regions. However, these datasets are not commonly considered in integrated geophysical inversion approaches due to computationally expensive forward modeling and inversion. Common inversion techniques on reflection seismic images are mostly utilized and developed for basin studies and have very limited application for hard-rock studies. Post-stack acoustic impedance inversions, for example, rely a lot on extracted petrophysical information along drilling borehole for depth correction purposes which are not necessarily available. Furthermore, the available techniques do not allow simple, automatic integration of seismic inversion with other geophysical datasets. 

 

 We introduce a new methodology that allows the utilization of the seismic images within the gravity inversion technique with the purpose of 3D boundary parametrization of the subsurface. The proposed workflow is a novel approach for incorporating seismic images into the integrated inversion techniques which relies on the image-ray method for depth-to-time domain conversion of seismic datasets. This algorithm uses a convolutional neural network to iterate over seismic images in time and depth domains. This iterative process is functional to compensate for the low depth resolution of the gravity datasets. We use a generalized level-set technique for gravity inversion to link the interfaces of the units with the depth-converted seismic images. The algorithm has been tested on realistic synthetic datasets generated from scenarios corresponding to different deformation histories. The preliminary results of this study suggest that post-stack seismic images can be utilized in integrated geophysical inversion algorithms without the need to run computationally expensive full wave-form inversions.  

How to cite: Rashidifard, M., Giraud, J., Jessell, M., and Lindsay, M.: A new approach toward integrated inversion of reflection seismic and gravity datasets using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10711, 2022.

EGU22-11043 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Framework for the deployment of DNNs in remote sensing inversion algorithms applied to Copernicus Sentinel-4 (S4) and TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) 

Fabian Romahn, Victor Molina Garcia, Ana del Aguila, Ronny Lutz, and Diego Loyola

In remote sensing, the quantities of interest (e.g. the composition of the atmosphere) are usually not directly observable but can only be inferred indirectly via the measured spectra. To solve these inverse problems, retrieval algorithms are applied that usually depend on complex physical models, so-called radiative transfer models (RTMs). RTMs are very accurate, however also computationally very expensive and therefore often not feasible in combination with the strict time requirements of operational processing of satellite measurements. With the advances in machine learning, the methods of this field, especially deep neural networks (DNN), have become very promising for accelerating and improving the classical remote sensing retrieval algorithms. However, their application is not straightforward but instead quite challenging as there are many aspects to consider and parameters to optimize in order to achieve satisfying results.

In this presentation we show a general framework for replacing the RTM, used in an inversion algorithm, with a DNN that offers sufficient accuracy while at the same time increases the processing performance by several orders of magnitude. The different steps, sampling and generation of the training data, the selection of the DNN hyperparameters, the training and finally the integration of the DNN into an operational environment are explained in detail. We will also focus on optimizing the efficiency of each step: optimizing the generation of training samples through smart sampling techniques, accelerating the training data generation through parallelization and other optimizations of the RTM, application of tools for the DNN hyperparameter optimization as well as the use of automation tools (source code generation) and appropriate interfaces for the efficient integration in operational processing systems.

This procedure has been continuously developed throughout the last years and as a use case, it will be shown how it has been applied in the operational retrieval of cloud properties for the Copernicus satellite sensors Sentinel-4 (S4) and TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P).

How to cite: Romahn, F., Molina Garcia, V., del Aguila, A., Lutz, R., and Loyola, D.: Framework for the deployment of DNNs in remote sensing inversion algorithms applied to Copernicus Sentinel-4 (S4) and TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11043, 2022.

EGU22-11420 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Histroy Matching for the tuning of coupled models: experiments on the Lorenz 96 model 

Redouane Lguensat, Julie Deshayes, and Venkatramani Balaji

The process of relying on experience and intuition to find good sets of parameters, commonly referred to as "parameter tuning" keeps having a central role in the roadmaps followed by dozens of modeling groups involved in community efforts such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). 

In this work, we study a tool from the Uncertainty Quantification community that started recently to draw attention in climate modeling: History Matching also referred to as "Iterative Refocussing". The core idea of History Matching is to run several simulations with different set of parameters and then use observed data to rule-out any parameter settings which are "implausible". Since climate simulation models are computationally heavy and do not allow testing every possible parameter setting, we employ an emulator that can be a cheap and accurate replacement. Here a machine learning algorithm, namely, Gaussian Process Regression is used for the emulating step. History Matching is then a good example where the recent advances in machine learning can be of high interest to climate modeling.

One objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for history matching to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By using a toy climate model, namely, the Lorenz 96 model, and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore different types of applications of HM and highlight the strenghts and challenges of using such a technique. 

How to cite: Lguensat, R., Deshayes, J., and Balaji, V.: Histroy Matching for the tuning of coupled models: experiments on the Lorenz 96 model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11420, 2022.

EGU22-11465 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Quantile machine learning models for predicting European-wide, high resolution fine-mode Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) based on ground-based AERONET and satellite AOD data 

Zhao-Yue Chen, Raul Méndez-Turrubiates, Hervé Petetin, Aleks Lacima, Albert Soret Miravet, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, and Joan Ballester

Air pollution is a major environmental risk factor for human health. Among the different air pollutants, Particulate Matter (PM) arises as the most prominent one, with increasing health effects over the last decades. According to the Global Burden of Disease, PM contributed to 4.14 million premature deaths globally in 2019, over twice as much as in 1990 (2.04 million). With these numbers in mind, the assessment of ambient PM exposure becomes a key issue in environmental epidemiology. However, the limited number of ground-level sites measuring daily PM values is a major constraint for the development of large-scale, high-resolution epidemiological studies.

In the last five years, there has been a growing number of initiatives estimating ground-level PM concentrations based on satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data, representing a low-cost alternative with higher spatial coverage compared to ground-level measurements. At present, the most popular AOD product is NASA’s MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), but the data that it provides is restricted to Total Aerosol Optical Depth (TAOD). Compared with TAOD, Fine-mode Aerosol Optical Depth (FAOD) better describes the distribution of small-diameter particles (e.g. PM10 and PM2.5), which are generally those associated with anthropogenic activity. Complementarily, AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork, which is the network of ground-based sun photometers), additionally provide Fine- and Coarse-mode Aerosol Optical Depth (FAOD and CAOD) products based on Spectral Deconvolution Algorithms (SDA).

Within the framework of the ERC project EARLY-ADAPT (https://early-adapt.eu/), which aims to disentangle the association between human health, climate variability and air pollution to better estimate the early adaptation response to climate change, here we develop quantile machine learning models to further advance in the association between AERONET FAOD and satellite AOD over Europe during the last two decades. Due to large missing data form satellite estimations, we also included the AOD estimates from ECMWF’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Global Reanalysis (CAMSRA) and NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), together with atmosphere, land and ocean variables such as boundary layer height, downward UV radiation and cloud cover from ECMWF’s ERA5-Land.

The models were thoroughly validated with spatial cross-validation. Preliminary results show that the R2 of the three AOD estimates (TAOD, FAOD and CAOD) predicted with quantile machine learning models range between 0.61 and 0.78, and the RMSE between 0.02 and 0.03. For the Pearson correlation with ground-level PM2.5, the predicted FAOD is highest (0.38), while 0.18, 0.11 and 0.09 are for Satellite, MERRA-2, CAMSRA AOD, respectively. This study provides three useful indicators for further estimating PM, which could improve our understanding of air pollution in Europe and open new avenues for large-scale, high-resolution environmental epidemiology studies.

How to cite: Chen, Z.-Y., Méndez-Turrubiates, R., Petetin, H., Lacima, A., Soret Miravet, A., Pérez García-Pando, C., and Ballester, J.: Quantile machine learning models for predicting European-wide, high resolution fine-mode Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) based on ground-based AERONET and satellite AOD data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11465, 2022.

EGU22-11924 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Automated detection and classification of synoptic scale fronts from atmospheric data grids 

Stefan Niebler, Peter Spichtinger, Annette Miltenberger, and Bertil Schmidt

Automatic determination of fronts from atmospheric data is an important task for weather prediction as well as for research of synoptic scale phenomena. We developed a deep neural network to detect and classify fronts from multi-level ERA5 reanalysis data. Model training and prediction is evaluated using two different regions covering Europe and North America with data from two weather services. Due to a label deformation step performed during training we are able to directly generate frontal lines with no further thinning during post processing. Our network compares well against the weather service labels with a Critical Success Index higher than 66.9% and a Object Detection Rate of more than 77.3%. Additionally the frontal climatologies generated from our networks ouput are highly correlated (greater than 77.2%) to climatologies created from weather service data. Evaluation of cross sections of our detection results provide further insight in the characteristics of our predicted fronts and show that our networks classification is physically plausible.

How to cite: Niebler, S., Spichtinger, P., Miltenberger, A., and Schmidt, B.: Automated detection and classification of synoptic scale fronts from atmospheric data grids, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11924, 2022.

EGU22-12043 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

A Domain-Change Approach to the Semantic Labelling of Remote Sensing Images 

Chandrabali Karmakar, Gottfried Schwartz, Corneliu Octavian Dumitru, and Mihai Datcu

For many years, image classification – mainly based on pixel brightness statistics – has been among the most popular remote sensing applications. However, during recent years, many users were more and more interested in the application-oriented semantic labelling of remotely sensed image objects being depicted in given images.


In parallel, the development of deep learning algorithms has led to several powerful image classification and annotation tools that became popular in the remote sensing community. In most cases, these publicly available tools combine efficient algorithms with expert knowledge and/or external information ingested during an initial training phase, and we often encounter two alternative types of deep learning approaches, namely Autoencoders (AEs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Both approaches try to convert the pixel data of remote sensing images into semantic maps of the imaged areas. In our case, we made an attempt to provide an efficient new semantic annotation tool that helps in the semantic interpretation of newly recorded images with known and/or possibly unknown content.


Typical cases are remote sensing images depicting unexpected and hitherto uncharted phenomena such as flooding events or destroyed infrastructure. When we resort to the commonly applied AE or CNN software packages we cannot expect that existing statistics, or a few initial ground-truth annotations made by an image interpreter, will automatically lead to a perfect understanding of the image content. Instead, we have to discover and combine a number of additional relationships that define the actual content of a selected image and many of its characteristics.

Our approach consists of a two-stage domain-change approach where we first convert an image into a purely mathematical ‘topic representation’ initially introduced by Blei [1]. This representation provides statistics-based topics that do not yet require final application-oriented labelling describing physical categories or phenomena and support the idea of explainable machine learning [2]. Then, during a second stage, we try to derive physical image content categories by exploiting a weighted multi-level neural network approach that converts weighted topics into individual application-oriented labels. This domain-changing learning stage limits label noise and is initially supported by an image interpreter allowing the joint use of pixel statistics and expert knowledge [3]. The activity of the image interpreter can be limited to a few image patches. We tested our approach on a number of different use cases (e.g., polar ice, agriculture, natural disasters) and found that our concept provides promising results.  


[1] D.M. Blei, A.Y. Ng, and M.I. Jordan, (2003). Latent Dirichlet Allocation, Journal of Machine Learning Research, Vol. 3, pp. 993-1022.
[2] C. Karmakar, C.O. Dumitru, G. Schwarz, and M. Datcu (2020). Feature-free explainable data mining in SAR images using latent Dirichlet allocation, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, Vol. 14, pp. 676-689.
[3] C.O. Dumitru, G. Schwarz, and M. Datcu (2021). Semantic Labelling of Globally Distributed Urban and Non-Urban Satellite Images Using High-Resolution SAR Data, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, Vol. 15, pp. 6009-6068.

How to cite: Karmakar, C., Schwartz, G., Dumitru, C. O., and Datcu, M.: A Domain-Change Approach to the Semantic Labelling of Remote Sensing Images, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12043, 2022.

EGU22-12489 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

“Fully-automated” clustering method for stress inversions (CluStress) 

Lukács Kuslits, Lili Czirok, and István Bozsó

As it is well-known, stress fields are responsible for earthquake formation. In order to analyse stress relations in a study area using focal mechanisms’ (FMS) inversions, it is vital to consider three fundamental criteria:

(1)       The investigated area is characterized by a homogeneous stress field.

(2)       The earthquakes occur with variable directions on pre-existing faults.

(3)       The deviation of the fault slip vector from the shear stress vector is minimal (Wallace-Bott hypothesis).

The authors have attempted to develop a “fully-automated” algorithm to carry out the classification of the earthquakes as a prerequisite of stress estimations. This algorithm does not call for the setting of hyper-parameters, thus subjectivity can be reduced significantly and the running time can also decrease. Nevertheless, there is an optional hyper-parameter that is eligible to filter outliers, isolated points (earthquakes) in the input dataset.

In this presentation, they show the operation of this algorithm in case of synthetic datasets consisting of different groups of FMS and a real seismic dataset. The latter come from a survey area in the earthquake-prone Vrancea-zone (Romania). This is a relatively small region (around 30*70 km) in the external part of SE-Carpathians where the distribution of the seismic events is quite dense and heterogeneous.

It shall be noted that though the initial results are promising, further developments are still necessary. The source codes are soon to be uploaded to a public GitHub repository which will be available for the whole scientific community.

How to cite: Kuslits, L., Czirok, L., and Bozsó, I.: “Fully-automated” clustering method for stress inversions (CluStress), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12489, 2022.

EGU22-12549 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Joint calibration and mapping of satellite altimetry data using trainable variaitional models 

Quentin Febvre, Ronan Fablet, Julien Le Sommer, and Clément Ubelmann

Satellite radar altimeters are a key source of observation of ocean surface dynamics. However, current sensor technology and mapping techniques do not yet allow to systematically resolve scales smaller than 100km. With their new sensors, upcoming wide-swath altimeter missions such as SWOT should help resolve finer scales. Current mapping techniques rely on the quality of the input data, which is why the raw data go through multiple preprocessing stages before being used. Those calibration stages are improved and refined over many years and represent a challenge when a new type of sensor start acquiring data.

We show how a data-driven variational data assimilation framework could be used to jointly learn a calibration operator and an interpolator from non-calibrated data . The proposed framework significantly outperforms the operational state-of-the-art mapping pipeline and truly benefits from wide-swath data to resolve finer scales on the global map as well as in the SWOT sensor geometry.

 

How to cite: Febvre, Q., Fablet, R., Le Sommer, J., and Ubelmann, C.: Joint calibration and mapping of satellite altimetry data using trainable variaitional models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12549, 2022.

EGU22-12574 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

SWIFT-AI: Significant Speed-up in Modelling the Stratospheric Ozone Layer 

Helge Mohn, Daniel Kreyling, Ingo Wohltmann, Ralph Lehmann, Peter Maass, and Markus Rex

Common representations of the stratospheric ozone layer in climate modeling are widely considered only in a very simplified way. Neglecting the mutual interactions of ozone with atmospheric temperature and dynamics has the effect of making climate projections less accurate. Although, more elaborate and interactive models of the stratospheric ozone layer are available, they require far too much computation time to be coupled with climate models. Our aim with this project was to break new ground and pursue an interdisciplinary strategy that spans the fields of machine learning, atmospheric physics and climate modelling.

In this work, we present an implicit neural representation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone chemistry (SWIFT-AI). An implicitly defined hyperspace of the stratospheric ozone chemistry offers a continuous and even differentiable representation that can be parameterized by artificial neural networks. We analysed different parameter-efficient variants of multilayer perceptrons. This was followed by an intensive, as far as possible energy-efficient search for hyperparameters involving Bayesian optimisation and early stopping techniques.

Our data source is the Lagrangian chemistry and transport model ATLAS. Using its full model of stratospheric ozone chemistry, we focused on simulating a wide range of stratospheric variability that will occur in future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes). We conducted a simulation for several years and created a data-set with over 200E+6 input and output pairs. Each output is the 24h ozone tendency of a trajectory. We performed a dimensionality reduction of the input parameters by using the concept of chemical families and by performing a sensitivity analysis to choose a set of robust input parameters.

We coupled the resulting machine learning models with the Lagrangian chemistry and transport model ATLAS, substituting the full stratospheric chemistry model. We validated a two-year simulation run by comparing to the differences in accuracy and computation time from both the full stratospheric chemistry model and the previous polynomial approach of extrapolar SWIFT. We found that SWIFT-AI consistently outperforms the previous polynomial approach of SWIFT, both in terms of test data and simulation results. We discovered that the computation time of SWIFT-AI is more than twice as fast as the previous polynomial approach SWIFT and 700 times faster than the full stratospheric chemistry scheme of ATLAS, resulting in minutes instead of weeks of computation time per model year – a speed-up of several orders of magnitude.

To ensure reproducibility and transparency, we developed a machine learning pipeline, published a benchmark dataset and made our repository open to the public.

In summary, we could show that the application of state-of-the-art machine learning methods to the field of atmospheric physics holds great potential. The achieved speed-up of an interactive and very precise ozone layer enables a novel way of representing the ozone layer in climate models. This in turn will increase the quality of climate projections, which are crucial for policy makers and of great importance for our planet.

How to cite: Mohn, H., Kreyling, D., Wohltmann, I., Lehmann, R., Maass, P., and Rex, M.: SWIFT-AI: Significant Speed-up in Modelling the Stratospheric Ozone Layer, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12574, 2022.

Recently, an increase in forecast skill of the seasonal climate forecast for winter in Europe has been achieved through an ensemble subsampling approach by way of predicting the mean winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index through linear regression (based on the autumn state of the four predictors sea surface temperature, Arctic sea ice volume, Eurasian snow depth and stratospheric temperature) and the sampling of the ensemble members which are able to reproduce this NAO state. This thesis shows that the statistical prediction of the NAO index can be further improved via nonlinear methods using the same predictor variables as in the linear approach. This likely also leads to an increase in seasonal climate forecast skill. The data used for the calculations stems from the global reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5. The available time span for use in this thesis covered only 40 years from 1980 till 2020, hence it was important to use a method that still yields statistically significant and meaningful results under those circumstances. The nonlinear method chosen was k-nearest neighbor, which is a simple, yet powerful algorithm when there is not a lot of data available. Compared to other methods like neural networks it is easy to interpret. The resulting method has been developed and tested in a double cross-validation setting. While sea ice in the Barents-Kara sea in September-October shows the most predictive capability for the NAO index in the subsequent winter as a single predictor, the highest forecast skill is achieved through a combination of different predictor variables.

How to cite: Hauke, C., Ahrens, B., and Dalelane, C.: Prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation index for the winter months December-January-February via nonlinear methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12628, 2022.

EGU22-12765 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1

Supervised machine learning to estimate instabilities in chaotic systems: computation of local Lyapunov exponents 

Daniel Ayers, Jack Lau, Javier Amezcua, Alberto Carrassi, and Varun Ojha

Weather and climate are well known exemplars of chaotic systems exhibiting extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. Initial condition errors are subject to exponential growth on average, but the rate and the characteristic of such growth is highly state dependent. In an ideal setting where the degree of predictability of the system is known in real-time, it may be possible and beneficial to take adaptive measures. For instance a local decrease of predictability may be counteracted by increasing the time- or space-resolution of the model computation or the ensemble size in the context of ensemble-based data assimilation or probabilistic forecasting.

Local Lyapunov exponents (LLEs) describe growth rates along a finite-time section of a system trajectory. This makes the LLEs the ideal quantities to measure the local degree of predictability, yet a main bottleneck for their real-time use in  operational scenarios is the huge computational cost. Calculating LLEs involves computing a long trajectory of the system, propagating perturbations with the tangent linear model, and repeatedly orthogonalising them. We investigate if machine learning (ML) methods can estimate the LLEs based only on information from the system’s solution, thus avoiding the need to evolve perturbations via the tangent linear model. We test the ability of four algorithms (regression tree, multilayer perceptron, convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network) to perform this task in two prototypical low dimensional chaotic dynamical systems. Our results suggest that the accuracy of the ML predictions is highly dependent upon the nature of the distribution of the LLE values in phase space: large prediction errors occur in regions of the attractor where the LLE values are highly non-smooth.  In line with classical dynamical systems studies, the neutral LLE is more difficult to predict. We show that a comparatively simple regression tree can achieve performance that is similar to sophisticated neural networks, and that the success of ML strategies for exploiting the temporal structure of data depends on the system dynamics.

How to cite: Ayers, D., Lau, J., Amezcua, J., Carrassi, A., and Ojha, V.: Supervised machine learning to estimate instabilities in chaotic systems: computation of local Lyapunov exponents, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12765, 2022.

EGU22-13228 | Presentations | ITS2.6/AS5.1 | Highlight

Developing a data-driven ocean forecast system 

Rachel Furner, Peter Haynes, Dan Jones, Dave Munday, Brooks Paige, and Emily Shuckburgh

The recent boom in machine learning and data science has led to a number of new opportunities in the environmental sciences. In particular, process-based weather and climate models (simulators) represent the best tools we have to predict, understand and potentially mitigate the impacts of climate change and extreme weather. However, these models are incredibly complex and require huge amounts of High Performance Computing resources. Machine learning offers opportunities to greatly improve the computational efficiency of these models by developing data-driven emulators.

Here I discuss recent work to develop a data-driven model of the ocean, an integral part of the weather and climate system. Much recent progress has been made with developing data-driven forecast systems of atmospheric weather, highlighting the promise of these systems. These techniques can also be applied to the ocean, however modelling of the ocean poses some fundamental differences and challenges in comparison to modelling the atmosphere, for example, oceanic flow is bathymetrically constrained across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

We train a neural network on the output from an expensive process-based simulator of an idealised channel configuration of oceanic flow. We show the model is able to learn well the complex dynamics of the system, replicating the mean flow and details within the flow over single prediction steps. We also see that when iterating the model, predictions remain stable, and continue to match the ‘truth’ over a short-term forecast period, here around a week.

 

How to cite: Furner, R., Haynes, P., Jones, D., Munday, D., Paige, B., and Shuckburgh, E.: Developing a data-driven ocean forecast system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13228, 2022.

EGU22-91 | Presentations | NP4.1

The role of teleconnections in complex climate network 

Ruby Saha

A complex network provides a robust framework to statistically investigate the topology of local and long-range connections, i.e., teleconnections in climate dynamics. The Climate network is constructed from meteorological data set using the linear Pearson correlation coefficient to measure similarity between two regions. Long-range teleconnections connect remote geographical sites and are crucial for climate networks. In this study, we discuss that during El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation onset, the teleconnections pattern changes according to the episode's strength. The long-range teleconnections are significant and responsible for the episodes' extremum ONI attained gradually after onset. We quantify the betweenness centrality measurement and note that the teleconnection distribution pattern and the betweenness measurements fit well.

How to cite: Saha, R.: The role of teleconnections in complex climate network, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-91, 2022.

EGU22-1831 | Presentations | NP4.1

Quantifying space-weather events using dynamical network analysis of Pc waves with global ground based magnetometers. 

Shahbaz Chaudhry, Sandra Chapman, Jesper Gjerloev, Ciaran Beggan, and Alan Thompson

Geomagnetic storms can impact technological systems, on the ground and in space, including damage to satellites and power blackouts. Their impact on ground systems such as power grids depends upon the spatio-temporal extent and time-evolution of the ground magnetic perturbation driven by the storm.

Pc waves are Alfven wave resonances of closed magnetospheric field lines and are ubiquitous in the inner magnetosphere. They have been extensively studied, in particular since  Pc wave power tracks the onset and evolution of geomagnetic storms.  We study the spatial and temporal evolution of Pc waves with a network analysis of the 100+ ground-based magnetometer stations collated by the SuperMAG collaboration with a single time-base and calibration. 

Network-based analysis of 1 min cadence SuperMAG magnetometer data has been applied to the dynamics of substorm current systems (Dods et al. JGR 2015, Orr et al. GRL 2019) and the magnetospheric response to IMF turnings (Dods et al. JGR 2017). It has the potential to capture the full spatio-temporal response with a few time-dependent network parameters. Now, with the availability of 1 sec data across the entire SuperMAG network we are able for the first time to apply network analysis globally to resolve both the spatial and temporal correlation patterns of the ground signature of Pc wave activity as a geomagnetic storm evolves. We focus on Pc2 (5-10s period) and Pc3 (10-45s period) wave bands. We obtain the time-varying global Pc wave dynamical network over individual space weather events.

To construct the networks we sample each magnetometer time series with a moving window in the time domain (20 times Pc period range) and then band-pass filter each magnetometer station time-series to obtain Pc2 and Pc3 waveforms. We then compute the cross correlation (TLXC) between all stations for each Pc band. Modelling is used to determine a threshold of significant TLXC above which a pair of stations are connected in the network. The TLXC as a function of lag is tested against a criterion for sinusoidal waveforms and then used to calculate the phase difference. The connections with a TLXC peak at non zero lag form a directed network which characterizes propagation or information flow. The connections at TLXC lag peak close to zero form am undirected network which characterizes a response which is globally instantaneously coherent.

We apply this network analysis to isolated geomagnetic storms. We find that the network connectivity does not simply track Pc wave power, it therefore contains additional information. Geographically short range connections are prevalent at all times, the storm onset marks a transition to a network which has both enhancement of geographically short-range connections, and the growth of geographically long range, global scale, connections extending spatially over a region exceeding 9h MLT. These global scale connections, indicating globally coherent Pc wave response are prevalent throughout the storm with considerable (within a few time windows) variation. The stations are not uniformly distributed spatially. Therefore, we distinguish between long range connections to avoid introducing spatial correlation. 

How to cite: Chaudhry, S., Chapman, S., Gjerloev, J., Beggan, C., and Thompson, A.: Quantifying space-weather events using dynamical network analysis of Pc waves with global ground based magnetometers., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1831, 2022.

EGU22-2014 | Presentations | NP4.1

OBS noise reduction using music information retrieval algorithms 

Zahra Zali, Theresa Rein, Frank Krüger, Matthias Ohrnberger, and Frank Scherbaum

Since the ocean covers 71% of the Earth’s surface, records from ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) are essential for investigating the whole Earth’s structure. However, data from ocean bottom recordings are commonly difficult to analyze due to the high noise level especially on the horizontal components. In addition, signals of seismological interest such as earthquake recordings at teleseismic distances, are masked by the oceanic noises. Therefore, noise reduction of OBS data is an important task required for the analysis of OBS records. Different approaches have been suggested in previous studies to remove noise from vertical components successfully, however, noise reduction on records of horizontal components remained problematic. Here we introduce a method, which is based on harmonic-percussive separation (HPS) algorithms used in Zali et al., (2021) that is able to separate long-lasting narrowband signals from broadband transients in the OBS records. In the context of OBS noise reduction using HPS algorithms, percussive components correspond to earthquake signals and harmonic components correspond to noise signals. OBS noises with narrowband horizontal structures in the short time Fourier transform (STFT) are readily distinguishable from transient, short-duration seismic events with vertical exhibitions in the STFT spectrogram. Through HPS algorithms we try to separate horizontal structures from vertical structures in the STFT spectrograms. Using this method we can reduce OBS noises from both vertical and horizontal components, retrieve clearer broadband earthquake waveforms and increase the earthquake signal to noise ratio. The applicability of the method is checked through tests on synthetic and real data.

How to cite: Zali, Z., Rein, T., Krüger, F., Ohrnberger, M., and Scherbaum, F.: OBS noise reduction using music information retrieval algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2014, 2022.

EGU22-2097 | Presentations | NP4.1 | Highlight

Medium- to long-term forecast of sea surface temperature using EEMD-STEOF-LSTM hybrid model 

Rixu Hao, Yuxin Zhao, Xiong Deng, Di Zhou, Dequan Yang, and Xin Jiang

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a vitally important variable of the global ocean, which can profoundly affect the climate and marine ecosystems. The field of forecasting oceanic variables has traditionally relied on numerical models, which effectively consider the discretization of the dynamical and physical oceanic equations. However, numerical models suffer from many limitations such as short timeliness, complex physical processes, and excessive calculation. Furthermore, existing machine learning has been proved to be able to capture spatial and temporal information independently without these limitations, but the previous research on multi-scale feature extraction and evolutionary forecast under spatiotemporal integration is still inadequate. To fill this gap, a multi-scale spatiotemporal forecast model is developed combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and spatiotemporal empirical orthogonal function (STEOF) with long short-term memory (LSTM), which is referred to as EEMD-STEOF-LSTM. Specifically, the EEMD is applied for adaptive multi-scale analysis; the STEOF is adopted to decompose the spatiotemporal processes of different scales into terms of a sum of products of spatiotemporal basis functions along with corresponding coefficients, which captures the evolution of spatial and temporal processes simultaneously; and the LSTM is employed to achieve medium- to long-term forecast of STEOF-derived spatiotemporal coefficients. A case study of the daily average of SST in the South China Sea shows that the proposed hybrid EEMD-STEOF-LSTM model consistently outperforms the optimal climatic normal (OCN), STEOF, and STEOF-LSTM, which can accurately forecast the characteristics of oceanic eddies. Statistical analysis of the case study demonstrates that this model has great potential for practical applications in medium- to long-term forecast of oceanic variables.

How to cite: Hao, R., Zhao, Y., Deng, X., Zhou, D., Yang, D., and Jiang, X.: Medium- to long-term forecast of sea surface temperature using EEMD-STEOF-LSTM hybrid model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2097, 2022.

In this presentation, we introduce the IMFogram method ( pronounced like "infogram" ), which is a new, fast, local, and reliable time-frequency representation (TFR) method for nonstationary signals. This technique is based on the Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) decomposition produced by a decomposition method, like the Empirical Mode Decomposition-based techniques, Iterative Filtering-based algorithms, or any equivalent method developed so far. We present the mathematical properties of the IMFogram, and show the proof that this method is a generalization of the Spectrogram. We conclude the presentation with some applications, as well as a comparison of its performance with other existing TFR techniques.

How to cite: Cicone, A.: The IMFogram: a new time-frequency representation algorithm for nonstationary signals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2560, 2022.

EGU22-2922 | Presentations | NP4.1

Constraining the uncertainty in CO2 seasonal cycle metrics by residual bootstrapping. 

Theertha Kariyathan, Wouter Peters, Julia Marshall, Ana Bastos, and Markus Reichstein

The analysis of long, high-quality time series of atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements helps to quantify their seasonal to interannual variations and impact on global climate. These discrete measurement records contain, however, gaps and at times noisy data, influenced by local fluxes or synoptic scale events, hence appropriate filtering and curve-fitting techniques are often used to smooth and gap-fill the atmospheric time series. Previous studies have shown that there is an inherent uncertainty associated with curve-fitting processes which introduces biases based on the choice of mathematical method used for data processing and can lead to scientific misinterpretation of the signal. Further the uncertainties in curve-fitting can be propagated onto the metrics estimated from the fitted curve that could significantly influence the quantification of the metrics and their interpretations. In this context we present a novel-methodology for constraining the uncertainty arising from fitting a smooth curve to the CO2 dry air mole fraction time-series, and propagate this uncertainty onto commonly used metrics to study the seasonal cycle of CO2. We generate an ensemble of fifitted curves from the data using residual bootstrap sampling with loess-fitted residuals, that is representative of the inherent uncertainty in applying the curve-fitting method to the discrete data. The spread of the selected CO2 seasonal cycle metrics across bootstrap time-series provides an estimate of the inherent uncertainty in curve fitting to the discrete data. Further we show that the approach can be extended to other curve-fitting methods by generating multiple bootstrap samples by resampling residuals obtained from processing the data using the widely used CCGCRV filtering method by the atmospheric greenhouse gas measurement community.

How to cite: Kariyathan, T., Peters, W., Marshall, J., Bastos, A., and Reichstein, M.: Constraining the uncertainty in CO2 seasonal cycle metrics by residual bootstrapping., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2922, 2022.

EGU22-4795 | Presentations | NP4.1

Robust Causal Inference for Irregularly Sampled Time Series: Applications in Climate and Paleoclimate Data Analysis 

Aditi Kathpalia, Pouya Manshour, and Milan Paluš

To predict and determine the major drivers of climate has become even more important now as climate change poses a big challenge to humankind and our planet earth. Different studies employ either correlation, causality methods or modelling approaches to study the interaction between climate and climate forcing variables (anthropogenic or natural). This includes the study of interaction between global surface temperatures and CO2; rainfall in different locations and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. The results produced by different studies have been found to be different and debatable, presenting an ambiguous situation. In this work, we develop and apply a novel robust causality estimation technique for time-series data (to estimate causal influence between given observables), that can help to resolve the ambiguity. The discrepancy in existing results arises due to challenges with the acquired data and limitations of the causal inference/ modelling approaches. Our novel approach combines the use of a recently proposed causality method, Compression-Complexity Causality (CCC) [1], and Ordinal/ Permutation pattern-based coding [2]. CCC estimates have been shown to be robust for bivariate systems with low temporal resolution, missing samples, long-term memory and finite length data [1]. The use of ordinal patterns helps to extend bivariate CCC to the multivariate case by capturing the multidimensional dynamics of the given variables’ systems in the symbolic temporal sequence of a single variable. This methodology is tested on dynamical systems data which are short in length and have been corrupted with missing samples or subsampled to different levels. The superior performance of ‘Permutation CCC’ on such data relative to other causality estimation methods, strengthens our trust in the method. We apply the method to study the interaction between CO2-temperature recordings on three different time scales, CH4-temperature on the paleoclimate scale, ENSO-South Asian monsoon on monthly and yearly time scales, North Atlantic Oscillation-surface temperature on daily and monthly time scales. These datasets are either short in length, have been sampled irregularly, have missing samples or have a combination of the above factors. Our results are interesting, which validate some existing studies while contradicting others. In addition, the development of the novel permutation-CCC approach opens the possibility of its application for making useful inferences on other challenging climate datasets.


This study is supported by the Czech Science Foundation, Project No.~GA19-16066S and by the Czech Academy of Sciences, Praemium Academiae awarded to M. Paluš.


References:
[1] Kathpalia, A., & Nagaraj, N. (2019). Data-based intervention approach for Complexity-Causality measure. PeerJ Computer Science, 5, e196.
[2] Bandt, C., & Pompe, B. (2002). Permutation entropy: a natural complexity measure for time series. Physical review letters, 88(17), 174102.

How to cite: Kathpalia, A., Manshour, P., and Paluš, M.: Robust Causal Inference for Irregularly Sampled Time Series: Applications in Climate and Paleoclimate Data Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4795, 2022.

Rainfall time series prediction is crucial for geoscientific system monitoring, but it is challenging and complex due to the extreme variability of rainfall. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a hybrid deep learning model (VMD-RNN) was proposed. In this study, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is first applied to decompose the original rainfall time series into several sub-sequences according to the frequency domain. Following that, different recurrent neural network (RNN) models are utilized to predict individual sub-sequences and the final prediction is reconstructed by summing the prediction results of sub-sequences. These RNN models are long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) and bidirectional GRU (BiGRU), which are optimal for sequence prediction. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted performance is then used to select the ideal RNN model for each sub-sequences. In addition to RMSE, the framework of universal multifractal (UM) is also introduced to evaluate prediction performances, which enables to characterize the extreme variability of predicted rainfall time series. The study employed two rainfall datasets from 2001 to 2020 in Paris, with daily and hourly resolutions. The results show that, when compared to directly predicting the original time series, the proposed hybrid VMD-RNN model improves prediction of high or extreme values for the daily dataset, but does not significantly enhance the prediction of zero or low values. Additionally, the VMD-RNN model also outperforms existing deep learning models without decomposition on the hourly dataset when evaluated with the help of RMSE, while universal multifractal analyses point out limitations. 

How to cite: Zhou, H., Schertzer, D., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: Combining variational mode decomposition and recurrent neural network to predict rainfall time series and evaluating prediction performance by universal multifractals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6014, 2022.

EGU22-6281 | Presentations | NP4.1

Application of information theoretical measures for improved machine learning modelling of the outer radiation belt 

Constantinos Papadimitriou, Georgios Balasis, Ioannis A. Daglis, and Simon Wing

In the past ten years Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and other machine learning methods have been used in a wide range of models and predictive systems, to capture and even predict the onset and evolution of various types of phenomena. These applications typically require large datasets, composed of many variables and parameters, the number of which can often make the analysis cumbersome and prohibitively time consuming, especially when the interplay of all these parameters is taken into consideration. Thankfully, Information-Theoretical measures can be used to not only reduce the dimensionality of the input space of such a system, but also improve its efficiency. In this work, we present such a case, where differential electron fluxes from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) on board the Van Allen Probes satellites are modelled by a simple ANN, using solar wind parameters and geomagnetic activity indices as inputs, and illustrate how the proper use of Information Theory measures can improve the efficiency of the model by minimizing the number of input parameters and shifting them with respect to time, to their proper time-lagged versions.

How to cite: Papadimitriou, C., Balasis, G., Daglis, I. A., and Wing, S.: Application of information theoretical measures for improved machine learning modelling of the outer radiation belt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6281, 2022.

EGU22-7256 | Presentations | NP4.1

Identifying patterns of teleconnections, a curvature-based network analysis 

Jakob Schlör, Felix M. Strnad, Christian Fröhlich, and Bedartha Goswami

Representing spatio-temporal climate variables as complex networks allows uncovering nontrivial structure in the data. Although various tools for detecting communities in climate networks have been used to group nodes (spatial locations) with similar climatic conditions, we are often interested in identifying important links between communities. Of particular interest are methods to detect teleconnections, i.e. links over large spatial distances mitigated by atmospheric processes.

We propose to use a recently developed network measure based on Ricci-curvature to visualize teleconnections in climate networks. Ricci-curvature allows to distinguish between- and within-community links in networks. Applied to networks constructed from surface temperature anomalies we show that Ricci-curvature separates spatial scales. We use Ricci-curvature to study differences in global teleconnection patterns of different types of El Niño events, namely the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types. Our method reveals a global picture of teleconnection patterns, showing confinement of teleconnections to the tropics under EP conditions but showing teleconnections to the tropics, Northern and Southern Hemisphere under CP conditions. The obtained teleconnections corroborate previously reported impacts of EP and CP.
Our results suggest that Ricci-curvature is a promising visual-analytics-tool to study the topology of climate systems with potential applications across observational and model data.

How to cite: Schlör, J., Strnad, F. M., Fröhlich, C., and Goswami, B.: Identifying patterns of teleconnections, a curvature-based network analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7256, 2022.

EGU22-8399 | Presentations | NP4.1

Using neural networks to detect coastal hydrodynamic phenomena in high-resolution tide gauge data 

Felix Soltau, Sebastian Niehüser, and Jürgen Jensen

Tide gauges are exposed to various kinds of influences that are able to affect water level measurements significantly and lead to time series containing different phenomena and artefacts. These influences can be natural or anthropogenic, while both lead to actual changes of the water level. Opposed to that, technical malfunction of measuring devices as another kind of influence causes non-physical water level data. Both actual and non-physical data need to be detected and classified consistently, and possibly corrected to enable the supply of adequate water level information. However, there is no automatically working detection algorithm yet. Only obvious or frequent technical malfunctions like gaps can be detected automatically but have to be corrected manually by trained staff. Consequently, there is no consistently defined data pre-processing before, for example, statistical analyses are performed or water level information for navigation is passed on.

In the research project DePArT*, we focus on detecting natural phenomena like standing waves, meteotsunamis, or inland flood events as well as anthropogenic artefacts like operating storm surge barriers and sluices in water level time series containing data every minute. Therefore, we train artificial neural networks (ANNs) using water level sequences of phenomena and artefacts as well as redundant data to recognize them in other data sets. We use convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as they already have been successfully conducted in, for example, object detection or speech and language processing (Gu et al., 2018). However, CNNs need to be trained with high numbers of sample sequences. Hence, as a next step the idea is to synthesize rarely observed phenomena and artefacts to gain enough training data. The trained CNNs can then be used to detect unnoticed phenomena and artefacts in past and recent time series. Depending on sequence characteristics and the results of synthesizing, we will possibly be able to detect certain events as they occur and therefore provide pre-checked water level information in real time.

In a later stage of this study, we will implement the developed algorithms in an operational test mode while cooperating closely with the officials to benefit from the mutual feedback. In this way, the study contributes to a future consistent pre-processing and helps to increase the quality of water level data. Moreover, the results are able to reduce uncertainties from the measuring process and improve further calculations based on these data.

* DePArT (Detektion von küstenhydrologischen Phänomenen und Artefakten in minütlichen Tidepegeldaten; engl. Detection of coastal hydrological phenomena and artefacts in minute-by-minute tide gauge data) is a research project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the project management of Projektträger Jülich PTJ under the grant number 03KIS133.

Gu, Wang, Kuen, Ma, Shahroudy, Shuai, Liu, Wang, Wang, Cai, Chen (2018): Recent advances in convolutional neural networks. In: Pattern Recognition, Vol. 77, Pages 354–377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patcog.2017.10.013

How to cite: Soltau, F., Niehüser, S., and Jensen, J.: Using neural networks to detect coastal hydrodynamic phenomena in high-resolution tide gauge data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8399, 2022.

EGU22-8899 | Presentations | NP4.1

Body wave extraction by using sparsity-promoting time-frequency filtering 

Bahare Imanibadrbani, Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, Ahmad Sadidkhouy, Rui Fernandes, Ali Gholami, and Martin Schimmel

Different phases of seismic waves generated by earthquakes carry considerable information about the subsurface structures as they propagate within the earth. Depending on the scope and objective of an investigation, various types of seismic phases are studied. Studying surface waves image shallow and large-scale subsurface features, while body waves provide high-resolution images at higher depths, which is otherwise impossible to be resolved by surface waves. The most challenging aspect of studying body waves is extracting low-amplitude P and S phases predominantly masked by high amplitude and low attenuation surface waves overlapping in time and frequency. Although body waves generally contain higher frequencies than surface waves, the overlapping frequency spectrum of body and surface waves limits the application of elementary signal processing methods such as conventional filtering. Advanced signal processing tools are required to work around this problem. Recently the Sparsity-Promoting Time-Frequency Filtering (SP-TFF) method was developed as a signal processing tool for discriminating between different phases of seismic waves based on their high-resolution polarization information in the Time-Frequency (TF)-domain (Mohammadigheymasi et al., 2022). The SP-TFF extracts different phases of seismic waves by incorporating this information and utilizing a combination of amplitude, directivity, and rectilinearity filters. This study implements SP-TFF by properly defining a filter combination set for specific extraction of body waves masked by high-amplitude surface waves. Synthetic and real data examinations for the source mechanism of the  Mw=7.5 earthquake that occurred in November 2021 in Northern Peru and recorded by 58 stations of the United States National Seismic Network (USNSN) is conducted. The results show the remarkable performance of SP-TFF extracting P and SV phases on the vertical and radial components and SH phase on the transverse component masked by high amplitude Rayleigh and Love waves, respectively. A range of S/N levels is tested, indicating the algorithm’s robustness at different noise levels. This research contributes to the FCT-funded SHAZAM (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEO/31475/2017) and IDL (Ref. FCT/UIDB/50019/2020) projects. It also uses computational resources provided by C4G (Collaboratory for Geosciences) (Ref. PINFRA/22151/2016).

REFERENCE
Mohammadigheymasi, H., P. Crocker, M. Fathi, E. Almeida, G. Silveira, A. Gholami, and M. Schimmel, 2022, Sparsity-promoting approach to polarization analysis of seismic signals in the time-frequency domain: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 1–1.

How to cite: Imanibadrbani, B., Mohammadigheymasi, H., Sadidkhouy, A., Fernandes, R., Gholami, A., and Schimmel, M.: Body wave extraction by using sparsity-promoting time-frequency filtering, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8899, 2022.

EGU22-9626 | Presentations | NP4.1

A Recurrence Flow based Approach to Attractor Reconstruction 

Tobias Braun, K. Hauke Kraemer, and Norbert Marwan

In the study of nonlinear observational time series, reconstructing the system’s state space represents the basis for many widely-used analyses. From the perspective of dynamical system’s theory, Taken’s theorem states that under benign conditions, the reconstructed state space preserves the most fundamental properties of the real, unknown system’s attractor. Through many applications, time delay embedding (TDE) has established itself as the most popular approach for state space reconstruction1. However, standard TDE cannot account for multiscale properties of the system and many of the more sophisticated approaches either require heuristic choice for a high number of parameters, fail when the signals are corrupted by noise or obstruct analysis due to their very high complexity.

We present a novel semi-automated, recurrence based method for the problem of attractor reconstruction. The proposed method is based on recurrence plots (RPs), a computationally simple yet effective 2D-representation of a univariate time series. In a recent study, the quantification of RPs has been extended by transferring the well-known box-counting algorithm to recurrence analysis2. We build on this novel formalism by introducing another box-counting measure that was originally put forward by B. Mandelbrot, namely succolarity3. Succolarity quantifies how well a fluid can permeate a binary texture4. We employ this measure by flooding a RP with a (fictional) fluid along its diagonals and computing succolarity as a measure of diagonal flow through the RP. Since a non-optimal choice of embedding parameters impedes the formation of diagonal lines in the RP and generally results in spurious patterns that block the fluid, the attractor reconstruction problem can be formulated as a maximization of diagonal recurrence flow.

The proposed state space reconstruction algorithm allows for non-uniform embedding delays to account for multiscale dynamics. It is conceptually and computationally simple and (nearly) parameter-free. Even in presence of moderate to high noise intensity, reliable results are obtained. We compare the method’s performance to existing techniques and showcase its effectiveness in applications to paradigmatic examples and nonlinear geoscientific time series.

 

References:

1 Packard, N. H., Crutchfield, J. P., Farmer, J. D., & Shaw, R. S. (1980). Geometry from a time series. Physical review letters, 45(9), 712.

2 Braun, T., Unni, V. R., Sujith, R. I., Kurths, J., & Marwan, N. (2021). Detection of dynamical regime transitions with lacunarity as a multiscale recurrence quantification measure. Nonlinear Dynamics, 1-19.

3 Mandelbrot, B. B. (1982). The fractal geometry of nature (Vol. 1). New York: WH freeman.

4 de Melo, R. H., & Conci, A. (2013). How succolarity could be used as another fractal measure in image analysis. Telecommunication Systems, 52(3), 1643-1655.

How to cite: Braun, T., Kraemer, K. H., and Marwan, N.: A Recurrence Flow based Approach to Attractor Reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9626, 2022.

EGU22-11064 | Presentations | NP4.1

The Objective Deformation Component of a Velocity Field 

Bálint Kaszás, Tiemo Pedergnana, and George Haller

According to a fundamental axiom of continuum mechanics, material response should be objective, i.e., indifferent to the observer. In the context of geophysical fluid dynamics, fluid-transporting vortices must satisfy this axiom and hence different observers should come to the same conclusion about the location and size of these vortices. As a consequence, only objectively defined extraction methods can provide reliable results for material vortices.

As velocity fields are inherently non-objective, they render most Eulerian flow-feature detection non-objective. To resolve this issue,  we discuss a general decomposition of a velocity field into an objective deformation component and a rigid-body component. We obtain this decomposition as a solution of a physically motivated extremum problem for the closest rigid-body velocity of a general velocity field.

This extremum problem turns out to have a unique,  physically interpretable,  closed-form solution. Subtracting this solution from the velocity field then gives an objective deformation velocity field that is also physically observable. As a consequence, all common Eulerian feature detection schemes, as well as the momentum, energy, vorticity, enstrophy, and helicity of the flow, become objective when computed from the deformation velocity component. We illustrate the use of this deformation velocity field on several velocity data sets.

How to cite: Kaszás, B., Pedergnana, T., and Haller, G.: The Objective Deformation Component of a Velocity Field, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11064, 2022.

EGU22-11118 | Presentations | NP4.1

Explainable community detection of extreme rainfall events using the tangles algorithmic framework 

Merle Kammer, Felix Strnad, and Bedartha Goswami

Climate networks have helped to uncover complex structures in climatic observables from large time series data sets. For instance, climate networks were used to reduce rainfall data to relevant patterns that can be linked to geophysical processes. However, the identification of regions that show similar behavior with respect to the timing and spatial distribution of extreme rainfall events (EREs) remains challenging. 
To address this, we apply a recently developed algorithmic framework based on tangles [1] to discover community structures in the spatial distribution of EREs and to obtain inherently interpretable communities as an output. First, we construct a climate network using time-delayed event synchronization and create a collection of cuts (bipartitions) from the EREs data. By using these cuts, the tangles algorithmic framework allows us to both exploit the climate network structure and incorporate prior knowledge from the data. Applying tangles enables us to create a hierarchical tree representation of communities including the likelihood that spatial locations belong to a community. Each tree layer can be associated to an underlying cut, thus making the division of different communities transparent. 
Applied to global precipitation data, we show that tangles is a promising tool to quantify community structures and to reveal underlying geophysical processes leading to these structures.

 

[1] S. Klepper, C. Elbracht, D. Fioravanti,  J. Kneip, L. Rendsburg, M. Teegen, and U. von Luxburg. Clustering with Tangles: Algorithmic Framework and Theoretical Guarantees. CoRR, abs/2006.14444v2, 2021. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14444v2.

How to cite: Kammer, M., Strnad, F., and Goswami, B.: Explainable community detection of extreme rainfall events using the tangles algorithmic framework, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11118, 2022.

EGU22-11667 | Presentations | NP4.1

Spurious Behaviour in Networks from Spatio-temporal Data 

Moritz Haas, Bedartha Goswami, and Ulrike von Luxburg

Network-based analyses of dynamical systems have become increasingly popular in climate science. Instead of focussing on the chaotic systems aspect, we come from a statistical perspective and highlight the often ignored fact that the calculated correlation values are only empirical estimates. We find that already the uncertainty stemming from the estimation procedure has major impact on network characteristics. Using isotropic random fields on the sphere, we observe spurious behaviour in commonly constructed networks from finite samples. When the data has locally coherent correlation structure, even spurious link-bundle teleconnections have to be expected. We reevaluate the outcome and robustness of existing studies based on their design choices and null hypotheses.

How to cite: Haas, M., Goswami, B., and von Luxburg, U.: Spurious Behaviour in Networks from Spatio-temporal Data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11667, 2022.

EGU22-12351 | Presentations | NP4.1

VAE4OBS: Denoising ocean bottom seismograms using variational autoencoders 

Maria Tsekhmistrenko, Ana Ferreira, Kasra Hosseini, and Thomas Kitching

Data from ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) are inherently more challenging than their land counterpart because of their noisy environment. Primary and secondary microseismic noises corrupt the recorded time series. Additionally, anthropogenic (e.g., ships) and animal noise (e.g., Whales) contribute to a complex noise that can make it challenging to use traditional filtering methods (e.g., broadband or Gabor filters) to clean and extract information from these seismograms. 

OBS deployments are laborious, expensive, and time-consuming. The data of these deployments are crucial in investigating and covering the "blind spots" where there is a lack of station coverage. It, therefore, becomes vital to remove the noise and retrieve earthquake signals recorded on these seismograms.

We propose analysing and processing such unique and challenging data with Machine Learning (ML), particularly Deep Learning (DL) techniques, where conventional methods fail. We present a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture to denoise seismic waveforms with the aim to extract more information than previously possible. We argue that, compared to other fields, seismology is well-posed to use ML and DL techniques thanks to massive datasets recorded by seismograms. 

In the first step, we use synthetic seismograms (generated with Instaseis) and white noise to train a deep neural network. We vary the signal-to-noise ratio during training. Such synthetic datasets have two advantages. First, we know the signal and noise (as we have injected the noise ourselves). Second, we can generate large training and validation datasets, one of the prerequisites for high-quality DL models.

Next, we increased the complexity of input data by adding real noise sampled from land and OBS to the synthetic seismograms. Finally, we apply the trained model to real OBS data recorded during the RHUM-RUM experiment.

We present the workflow, the neural network architecture, our training strategy, and the usefulness of our trained models compared to traditional methods.

How to cite: Tsekhmistrenko, M., Ferreira, A., Hosseini, K., and Kitching, T.: VAE4OBS: Denoising ocean bottom seismograms using variational autoencoders, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12351, 2022.

EGU22-13053 | Presentations | NP4.1

Causal Diagnostics for Observations - Experiments with the L63 system 

Nachiketa Chakraborty and Javier Amezcua

Study of cause and effect relationships – causality - is central to identifying mechanisms that cause the phenomena we observe. And in non-linear, dynamical systems, we wish to understand these mechanisms unfolding over time. In areas within physical sciences like geosciences, astrophysics, etc. there are numerous competing causes that drive the system in complicated ways that are hard to disentangle. Hence, it is important to demonstrate how causal attribution works with relatively simpler systems where we have a physical intuition. Furthermore, in earth and atmospheric sciences or meteorology, we have a plethora of observations that are used in both understanding the underlying science beneath the phenomena as well as forecasting. However in order to do this, optimally combining the models (theoretical/numerical) with the observations through data assimilation is a challenging, computationally intensive task. Therefore, understanding the impact of observations and the required cadence is very useful. Here, we present experiments in causal inference and attribution with the Lorenz 63 system – a system studied for a long time. We first test the causal relations between the variables characterising the model. And then we simulate observations using perturbed versions of the model to test the impact of the cadence of observations of each combination of the 3 variables.

How to cite: Chakraborty, N. and Amezcua, J.: Causal Diagnostics for Observations - Experiments with the L63 system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13053, 2022.

An accurate understanding of dynamical similarities and dissimilarities in geomagnetic variability between quiet and disturbed periods has the potential to vastly improve Space Weather diagnosis. During the last years, several approaches rooted in dynamical system theory have demonstrated their great potentials for characterizing the instantaneous level of complexity in geomagnetic activity and solar wind variations, and for revealing indications of intermittent large-scale coupling and generalized synchronization phenomena in the Earth’s electromagnetic environment. In this work, we focus on two complementary approaches based on the concept of recurrences in phase space, both of which quantify subtle geometric properties of the phase space trajectory instead of taking an explicit temporal variability perspective. We first quantify the local (instantaneous) and global fractal dimensions and associated local stability properties of a suite of low (SYM-H, ASY-H) and high latitude (AE, AL, AU) geomagnetic indices and discuss similarities and dissimilarities of the obtained patterns for one year of observations during a solar activity maximum. Subsequently, we proceed with studying bivariate extensions of both approaches, and demonstrate their capability of tracing different levels of interdependency between low and high latitude geomagnetic variability during periods of magnetospheric quiescence and along with perturbations associated with geomagnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms, respectively. Ultimately, we investigate the effect of time scale on the level of dynamical organization of fluctuations by studying iterative reconstructions of the index values based on intrinsic mode functions obtained from univariate and multivariate versions of empirical mode decomposition. Our results open new perspectives on the nonlinear dynamics and (likely intermittent) mutual entanglement of different parts of the geospace electromagnetic environment, including the equatorial and westward auroral electrojets, in dependence of the overall state of the geospace system affected by temporary variations of the solar wind forcing. In addition, they contribute to a better understanding of the potentials and limitations of two contemporary approaches of nonlinear time series analysis in the field of space physics.

How to cite: Donner, R., Alberti, T., and Faranda, D.: Instantaneous fractal dimensions and stability properties of geomagnetic indices based on recurrence networks and extreme value theory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13342, 2022.

EGU22-869 | Presentations | NP5.1 | Highlight

Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble forecasts of wind gusts with a focus on European winter storms 

Benedikt Schulz and Sebastian Lerch

Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its importance for severe weather warnings, e.g. in European winter storms. First, we provide a comprehensive review and systematic comparison of several statistical and machine learning methods for probabilistic wind gust forecasting via ensemble postprocessing, then we assess the performance of selected methods within winter storms. The methods can be divided in three groups: State of the art postprocessing techniques from statistics (ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), member-by-member postprocessing, isotonic distributional regression), established machine learning methods (gradient-boosting extended EMOS, quantile regression forests) and neural network-based approaches (distributional regression network, Bernstein quantile network, histogram estimation network). The different approaches are systematically compared using six years of data from a high-resolution, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system run operationally at the German weather service, and hourly observations at 175 surface weather stations in Germany. While all postprocessing methods yield calibrated forecasts and are able to correct the systematic errors of the raw ensemble predictions, incorporating information from additional meteorological predictor variables beyond wind gusts as well as estimating locally adaptive neural networks leads to significant improvements in forecast skill. Assessing the performance of EMOS and neural network-based postprocessing for selected winter storms, we find that the networks better adapt to the extreme conditions than the statistical benchmark and thus yield a superior predictive performance. However, results suggest that the performance can still be further improved, e.g. via regime-dependent postprocessing.

How to cite: Schulz, B. and Lerch, S.: Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble forecasts of wind gusts with a focus on European winter storms, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-869, 2022.

EGU22-921 | Presentations | NP5.1

Generative machine learning methods for multivariate ensemble post-processing 

Jieyu Chen, Sebastian Lerch, and Tim Janke

Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts has become a common practice in research to correct biases and errors in calibration. While many of the developments have been focused on univariate methods that calibrate the marginal distributions, practical applications often require accurate modeling of spatial, temporal, and inter-variable dependencies. Copula-based multivariate post-processing methods, such as ensemble copula coupling, have been proposed to address this issue and proceed by reordering univariately post-processed ensembles with copula functions to retain the dependence structure. We propose a novel multivariate post-processing method based on generative machine learning where post-processed multivariate ensemble forecasts are generated from random noise, conditional on the inputs of raw ensemble forecasts. Moving beyond the two-step strategy of separately modeling marginal distributions and multivariate dependence structure, the generative modelling approach allows for directly obtaining multivariate probabilistic forecasts as output. The flexibility of the generative model also enables us to incorporate additional predictors straightforwardly and to generate an arbitrary number of post-processed ensemble members. In a case study on the surface temperature and wind speed forecasts from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts at weather stations in Germany, our generative model that incorporates additional weather predictors substantially improves upon the multivariate spatial forecasts from copula-based approaches. And the model shows competitive performance even with state-of-the-art neural network-based post-processing models applied for the marginal distributions.

How to cite: Chen, J., Lerch, S., and Janke, T.: Generative machine learning methods for multivariate ensemble post-processing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-921, 2022.

EGU22-1201 | Presentations | NP5.1

Physics-constrained postprocessing of surface temperature and humidity 

Francesco Zanetta and Daniele Nerini

Traditional post-processing methods aim at minimizing forecast error. This often leads to predictions that violate physical principles and disregard dependencies between variables. However, for various impact-based applications such as hydrological forecasting or heat indices, it is important to provide forecasts that not only have high univariate accuracy, but also are physically consistent, in the sense of respecting physical principles and variable dependencies. Achieving physical consistency remains an open problem in the post-processing of weather forecasts, while this question has recently gained a lot of attention in the wider deep learning community and climate field. Recent contributions show that physical consistency may be pursued by applying different forms of constraints to deep learning models. The most widely used approaches are to incorporate physics via regularization, by defining physics-based losses in addition to common metrics such as mean absolute error, or to define custom-designed model architectures, such that the physical constraints are strictly enforced. Including constraints also has the potential to help the training procedure by restraining the hypothesis space of the model and improving generalization capabilities.

This work investigates the application of the aforementioned approaches for the postprocessing of a set of variables related to surface temperature and humidity, specifically temperature, dew point, surface pressure, relative humidity and water vapor mixing ratio. As baseline, we use an unconstrained fully connected neural network. We consider the simple case of postprocessing at a single location, and we show how it is possible to incorporate domain knowledge, specifically thermodynamic relationships, via analytic constraints, to obtain physically consistent postprocessed prediction. We compare different approaches and show that we can enforce physical consistency without degrading performance, or even improving it. Furthermore, we discuss additional advantages and disadvantages of these approaches in the context of post-processing, besides error reduction.

How to cite: Zanetta, F. and Nerini, D.: Physics-constrained postprocessing of surface temperature and humidity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1201, 2022.

EGU22-2176 | Presentations | NP5.1

Probabilistic power ramp forecasts using multivariate Gaussian regression 

Thomas Muschinski, Moritz N. Lang, Georg J. Mayr, Jakob W. Messner, Thorsten Simon, and Achim Zeileis

Efficient wind farm operation requires reliable probabilistic forecasts of power ramps. These are sudden fluctuations in power production which, if unanticipated, can lead to significant imbalances in the electrical grid.  The power produced by a turbine strongly depends on the wind speed at hub-height, making it is useful to base these forecasts on calibrated wind speed scenarios generated by statistically postprocessing numerical weather predictions (NWPs). Since the probability of a ramp event depends jointly on the wind speed distributions forecasted at multiple future times, postprocessing methods must not only calibrate the marginal forecasts for each lead time, but also estimate temporal dependencies among their errors.

We use new multivariate Gaussian regression (MGR) models to postprocess all next-day hourly 100m wind speeds near offshore wind farms in one step. The postprocessed forecast is a multivariate Gaussian distribution with mean vector μ — containing the 24 forecasted hourly mean wind speeds — and Σ — the 24 × 24 covariance matrix containing uncertainties of the individual forecasts as well as their temporal error correlations.  Joint distributions are estimated conditionally by flexibly linking the components of μ and parameters specifying Σ to predictors derived from an ECMWF ensemble using generalized additive models for each distributional parameter.

The joint distribution — predicted uniquely for each ECMWF initialization — can simulate postprocessed wind speed ensembles with any number of members. Subsequently, the forecasted ensembles are transformed into power space using an idealized turbine power curve and probabilities computed for different ramp events. Ramp forecasts from MGR outperform those obtained using reference methods which postprocess wind speed forecasts in two-steps: (i) first calibrating the marginal distributions with nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression before (ii) constructing temporal error dependencies using either the order statistics of the NWP ensemble (ensemble copula coupling, ECC) or those of raw observations (Schaake Shuffle).

How to cite: Muschinski, T., Lang, M. N., Mayr, G. J., Messner, J. W., Simon, T., and Zeileis, A.: Probabilistic power ramp forecasts using multivariate Gaussian regression, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2176, 2022.

EGU22-2311 | Presentations | NP5.1

Gaussian mixture models for clustering and calibration of ensemble weather forecasts 

Gabriel Jouan, Anne Cuzol, Valérie Monbet, and Goulven Monnier

Nowadays, most weather forecasting centers produce ensemble forecasts.  Ensemble forecasts provide information about probability distribution of the weather variables. They give a more complete description of the atmosphere than a unique run of the meteorological model. However, they may suffer from bias and under/over dispersion errors that need to be corrected. These distribution errors may depend on weather regimes. In this paper, we propose various extensions of the Gaussian mixture model and its associated inference tools for ensemble data sets.  The proposed models are then used to identify clusters which correspond to different types of distribution errors. Finally, a standard calibration method known as Non homogeneous Gaussian Regression (NGR)  is applied cluster by cluster in order to correct ensemble forecast distributions. It is shown that the proposed methodology is effective, interpretable and easy to use.  The clustering algorithms are illustrated on simulated and real data. The calibration method is applied to real data of temperature and wind medium range forecast for 3 stations in France. 

How to cite: Jouan, G., Cuzol, A., Monbet, V., and Monnier, G.: Gaussian mixture models for clustering and calibration of ensemble weather forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2311, 2022.

EGU22-5609 | Presentations | NP5.1

Postprocessing of gridded precipitation forecasts using conditional generative adversarial networks and quantile regression 

Stephan Hemri, Jonas Bhend, Christoph Spirig, Daniele Nerini, Lionel Moret, Reinhard Furrer, and Mark A. Liniger

Probabilistic predictions of precipitation call for rather sophisticated postprocessing approaches due to its low predictability, high spatio-temporal variability and highly positive skewness. Moreover, the large number of zeros makes the generation of physically realistic postprocessed forecast scenarios using standard approaches like ensemble copula coupling (ECC) rather difficult. In addition to classical statistical approaches, recently, machine learning based methods gained increasing popularity in the field of postprocessing of probabilistic weather forecasts.

In this study, we compare conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) based postprocessing of daily precipitation with a quantile regression based approach. In principle, an appropriately trained cGAN model should be able to generate postprocessed forecast scenarios that improve forecast skill and cannot be distinguished from observed data in terms of spatial structure. While we use ECC to generate physically realistic forecast scenarios from quantile regression, cGAN does not need any additional ECC steps. For training and verification, we use COSMO-E ensemble forecasts with a grid resolution of about 2 km over Switzerland and the corresponding CombiPrecip observations, which are a gridded blend of radar and gauge observations. Preliminary results suggest that it is possible to generate realistic looking forecast scenarios using cGAN, but up to now, we have not been able to increase forecast skill. On the other hand, quantile regression seems to increase forecast skill at the expense of relying on an additional ECC step to generate forecast scenarios.

How to cite: Hemri, S., Bhend, J., Spirig, C., Nerini, D., Moret, L., Furrer, R., and Liniger, M. A.: Postprocessing of gridded precipitation forecasts using conditional generative adversarial networks and quantile regression, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5609, 2022.

EGU22-5797 | Presentations | NP5.1

News about the EUMETNET statistical postprocessing benchmark 

Jonathan Demaeyer

New postprocessing methods are sometimes introduced without proper comparison to other available techniques, and therefore the institutions responsible for the operational implementation of weather forecasts may struggle deciding the best choice for their particular usecase. With the goal of helping the weather community to make such decisions, the benchmark of different postprocessing methods on predefined datasets is an important topic and is a key deliverable of the current EUMETNET postprocessing module. This benchmark is also a collaborative effort from several meteorological institutions, members of EUMETNET, and academia to define common pratices and shape standards.

 

In this presentation, we will highlight the different aspects of the benchmark: (1) its current status and organization and (2) its objectives for the next 2 years. We will also detail the challenges ahead for this exercise, and the foreseen datasets and infrastructures needed to tackle them.

How to cite: Demaeyer, J.: News about the EUMETNET statistical postprocessing benchmark, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5797, 2022.

EGU22-7407 | Presentations | NP5.1

Temperature prediction with expert agregation 

Léo Pfitzner, Olivier Mestre, Olivier Wintenberger, and Eric Adjakossa

A lot of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and their associated Model Output Statistics (MOS) are available. Expert aggregation has a bunch of advantages to deal with all these models, like being online, adaptive to model changes and having theoretical guarantees. With a new expert aggregation algorithm - FSBOA - a combination of BOA (Wintenberger 2017) and FS (Herbster and Warmuth 1998), and the use of a sliding window, we improved the temperature prediction on average without loosing too much reactivity of the expert weights. We also tested several aggregation strategies in order to improve the prediction of  extrem temperature events like cold and heat waves. To do so, we added some biased experts of the Météo-France 35-member ensemble forecast (PEARP) to the set of models. We also tried out the SMH (Mourtada et al. 2017) algorithm which fits the sleeping experts framework.

How to cite: Pfitzner, L., Mestre, O., Wintenberger, O., and Adjakossa, E.: Temperature prediction with expert agregation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7407, 2022.

EGU22-8200 | Presentations | NP5.1

climpred: weather and climate forecast verification in python 

Aaron Spring

Predicting subseasonal to seasonal weather and climate yields numerous benefits for economic and environmental decision-making.
Forecasters verify the forecast quality of models by initializing large sets of retrospective forecasts to predict past variations and phenomena in hindcast studies.

Quantifying prediction skill for multi-dimensional geospatial model output is computationally expensive and a difficult coding challenge. The large datasets require parallel and out-of-memory computing to be analyzed efficiently. Further, aligning the many forecast initializations with differing observational products is a straight-forward, but exhausting and error-prone exercise for researchers.

To simplify and standardize forecast verification across scales from hourly weather to decadal climate forecasts, we built climpred: a python package for computationally efficient and methodologically consistent verification of ensemble prediction models. We rely on the python software ecosystem developed by the open pangeo geoscience community. We leverage NetCDF metadata using xarray and out-of-core computation parallelized with dask to scale analyses from a laptop to supercomputer.

With climpred, researchers can assess forecast quality from a large set of metrics (including cprs, rps, rank_histogram, reliability, contingency, bias, rmse, acc, ...) in just a few lines of code:

hind = xr.open_dataset('initialized.nc')
obs = xr.open_dataset('observations.nc')
he = climpred.HindcastEnsemble(hind).add_observations(obs)
# he = he.remove_bias(how='basic_quantile',
#                                       train_test_split='unfair', 
#                                       alignment='same_verif')
he.verify(metric='rmse',
                comparison='e2o',
                alignment='same_verif',
                dim='init',
                reference=['persistence', 'climatology'])

This simplified and standardized process frees up resources to tackle the large process-based unknowns in predictability research. Here, we perform a live and interactive multi-model comparison removing bias with different methodologies from NMME project hindcasts and compare against persistence and climatology reference forecasts.

Documentation: https://climpred.readthedocs.io

Repository: https://github.com/pangeo-data/climpred

Reference paper: Brady, Riley X. and Aaron Spring (Mar. 2021). “Climpred: Verification of Weather and Climate Forecasts”. en. Journal of Open Source Software 6.59, p. 2781. https://joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21105/joss.02781

How to cite: Spring, A.: climpred: weather and climate forecast verification in python, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8200, 2022.

EGU22-8424 | Presentations | NP5.1

Offline models for statistical post-processing of surface weather variables 

Zied Ben Bouallegue, Fenwick Cooper, and Matthew Chantry

Statistical post-processing based on machine learning (ML) methods aims to capture systematic forecasts errors, relying on information from various predictors. We explore the exclusive use of “offline” predictors for the bias correction and uncertainty estimation of 2m temperature and 10 m wind speed forecasts. Offline predictors are defined as predictors available before the start of the forecast-of-the-day. Offline predictors encompass model characteristics such as the model orography and the model vegetation cover as well as spatio-temporal markers such as the day of the year, the time of the day and the latitude. The resulting offline models are particularly simple to implement as no time-critical operations are involved. The benefits of offline models and performance compared with more complex approaches will be discussed. 

How to cite: Ben Bouallegue, Z., Cooper, F., and Chantry, M.: Offline models for statistical post-processing of surface weather variables, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8424, 2022.

EGU22-8706 | Presentations | NP5.1

IMPROVER : A probabilistic, multi-model post-processing system for meteorological forecasts 

Stephen Moseley, Fiona Rust, Gavin Evans, Ben Ayliffe, Katharine Hurst, Kathryn Howard, Bruce Wright, and Simon Jackson

The UK Met Office is developing an open-source probability-based post-processing system called IMPROVER to exploit convection permitting, hourly cycling ensemble forecasts. The system is tasked with blending these forecasts with both deterministic nowcast data, and coarser resolution global ensemble model data, to produce seamless probabilistic forecasts from the very short to medium range.

A majority of the post-processing within IMPROVER is performed on gridded forecasts, with site-specific forecasts extracted as a final step, helping to ensure consistency. IMPROVER delivers a wide range of probabilistic products to both operational meteorologists and as input to automated forecast production. and this presentation will detail some of the work that has been undertaken in the past year to prepare, with a focus on the use of statistical post-processing.

Statistical post-processing plays two complimentary roles within IMPROVER; ensuring forecasts better reflect reality, and in so doing, bringing different models into better alignment, which improves the seamlessness of model transitions. For a selection of diagnostics, the gridded forecasts from different source models are calibrated independently using ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). Results of experiments looking at the calibration of gridded forecasts will be discussed briefly.

More recently calibration of site forecasts has been introduced as a final step for temperature and wind speed forecasts. Results of experiments using EMOS to perform calibration in a variety of different ways will be presented, including justifications and trade-offs made in choosing a final approach.

  • This will include some discussion of the remaking of weather symbol products as period, rather than instantaneous, forecasts and the implications for their verification.

How to cite: Moseley, S., Rust, F., Evans, G., Ayliffe, B., Hurst, K., Howard, K., Wright, B., and Jackson, S.: IMPROVER : A probabilistic, multi-model post-processing system for meteorological forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8706, 2022.

EGU22-10869 | Presentations | NP5.1

Causality in long-term predictions, past-value problems and a stochastic-deterministic hybrid 

Lenin Del Rio Amador and Shaun Lovejoy

Over time scales between 10 days and 10-20 years – the macroweather regime – atmospheric fields, including the temperature, respect statistical scale symmetries, such as power-law correlations, that imply the existence of a huge memory in the system that can be exploited for long-term forecasts. The Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) is a stochastic model that exploits these symmetries to perform long-term forecasts. It models the temperature as the high-frequency limit of the fractional energy balance equation (fractional Gaussian noise) which governs radiative equilibrium processes when the relevant equilibrium relaxation processes are power law, rather than exponential.

The multivariate version of the model (m-StocSIPS), exploits the space-time statistics of the temperature field to produce realistic global simulations, including realistic teleconnection networks and El Niño events and indices. One of the implications of this model is the lack of Granger-causality: the optimal predictor at gridpoint i is obtained from the past of the timeseries i and cannot be improved using past temperatures from any other location j. This allows to treat predictions for long-memory processes as “past value” problems rather than the conventional initial value approach that uses the current state of the atmosphere to produce ensemble forecasts.

To improve the stochastic predictions, a zero-lag independent (non-stochastic) predictor is needed. Here we use the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual prediction System (CanSIPS), as a deterministic co-predictor. CanSIPS is a long-term multi-model ensemble (MME) system using two climate models developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma). The optimal linear combination of CanSIPS and StocSIPS (CanStoc) was based on minimizing the square error of the final predictor in the common hindcast period 1981-2010 using different out-of-sample validations. Global time series and regional maps at 2.5ºx2.5º resolution show that the skill of CanStoc is better than that of each individual model for most of the regions when non-overlapping training and verification periods are used.

How to cite: Del Rio Amador, L. and Lovejoy, S.: Causality in long-term predictions, past-value problems and a stochastic-deterministic hybrid, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10869, 2022.

EGU22-11689 | Presentations | NP5.1

Graphical Model Assessment of Probabilistic Forecasts 

Moritz N. Lang, Reto Stauffer, and Achim Zeileis

As a consequence of the growing importance of probabilistic predictions in various application fields due to a necessary functional risk management and strategy, there is an increasing demand for appropriate probabilistic model evaluation. Besides proper scoring rules, which can evaluate not only the expectation but the entire predictive distribution, graphical assessment methods are particularly advantageous to diagnose possible model misspecifications.

Probabilistic forecasts are often based on distributional regression models, whereby the computation of predictive distributions, probabilities, and quantiles is generally dependent on the software (package) being used. Therefore, routines to graphically evaluate probabilistic models are not always available and if so then only for specific types of models and distributions provided by the corresponding package. An easy to use unified infrastructure to graphical assess and compare different probabilistic model types does not yet exist. Trying to fill that gap, we present a common conceptual framework accompanied by a flexible and object-oriented software implementation in the R package topmodels (https://topmodels.R-Forge.R-project.org/).  

The package includes visualizations for PIT (probability integral transform) histograms, Q-Q (quantile-quantile) plots of (randomized) quantile residuals, rootograms, reliability diagrams, and worm plots. All displays can be rendered in base R as well as in ggplot2 and provide different options for, e.g., computing confidence intervals, scaling or setting graphical parameters. Using examples of post-processing precipitation ensemble forecasts, we further discuss how all theses types of graphics can be compared to each other and which types of displays are particularly useful for bringing out which types of model deficiencies.

How to cite: Lang, M. N., Stauffer, R., and Zeileis, A.: Graphical Model Assessment of Probabilistic Forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11689, 2022.

EGU22-13118 | Presentations | NP5.1

Calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts for power generation 

Sándor Baran and Ágnes Baran

In 2020, 36.6 % of the total electricity demand of the world was covered by renewable sources, whereas in the EU (UK included) this share reached 49.3 %. A substantial part of green energy is produced by wind farms, where accurate short range power predictions are required for successful integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. Accurate predictions of the produced electricity require accurate forecasts of the corresponding weather quantity, where the state-of-the-art method is the probabilistic approach based on ensemble forecasts. However, ensemble forecasts are often uncalibrated and might also be biased, thus require some form of post-processing to improve their predictive performance.

To calibrate (hub height) wind speed ensemble forecasts we propose a novel flexible machine learning approach, which results either in a truncated normal or a log-normal predictive distribution (Baran and Baran, 2021). In a case study based on 100m wind speed forecasts of the operational AROME-EPS of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, the forecast skill of this method is compared with the predictive performance of three different ensemble model output statistics approaches and the raw ensemble predictions. We show that compared with the raw ensemble, post-processing always improves the calibration of probabilistic and accuracy of point forecasts, and from the five competing methods the novel machine learning based approaches result in the best overall performance. 

Reference

Baran, S., Baran, Á., Calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts for power generation. Idöjárás 125 (2021), 609-624.

How to cite: Baran, S. and Baran, Á.: Calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts for power generation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13118, 2022.

EGU22-13125 | Presentations | NP5.1

Restoration of temporal dependence in post-processed ensemble forecasts 

Mária Lakatos and Sándor Baran

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are often underdispersive and might also contain bias, which calls for some form of post-processing. A popular approach to calibration is the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) resulting in a full predictive distribution for a given weather variable. However, this form of univariate post-processing may ignore the prevailing spatial and/or temporal correlation structures among different dimensions. Since many applications call for spatially and/or temporally coherent forecasts, multivariate post-processing aims to capture these possibly lost dependencies.

Our main objective is the comparison of different nonparametric multivariate approaches to modeling temporal dependence of ensemble weather forecasts with different forecast horizons. We investigate two-step methods, where after univariate post-processing, the EMOS predictive distributions corresponding to different forecast horizons are combined to a multivariate calibrated prediction using an (empirical) copula (Lerch et al, 2020). Based on global ensemble predictions of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 we investigate the forecast skill of different versions of Ensemble Copula Coupling and Schaake Shuffle. In general, compared with the raw and independently calibrated forecasts, multivariate post-processing substantially improves the forecast skill; however, there is no unique winner, the best-performing approach strongly depends on the weather variable at hand. 

Reference

Lerch, S., Baran, S., Möller, A., Groß, J., Schefzik, R., Hemri, S., Graeter, M., Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 27 (2020), 349-371.

 

How to cite: Lakatos, M. and Baran, S.: Restoration of temporal dependence in post-processed ensemble forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13125, 2022.

EGU22-13205 | Presentations | NP5.1

Support Vector Machine Quantile Regression based ensemble postprocessing 

David Jobst, Annette Möller, and Jürgen Groß

Current practice in predicting future weather is the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce ensemble forecasts. Despite of enormous improvements over the last few decades, they still tend to exhibit bias and dispersion errors and consequently lack calibration. Therefore, these forecasts need to be statistically postprocessed.

Support vector machines are often used for classification and regression tasks in a wide range of applications, as e.g. energy, ecology, hydrology and economics. In this study, ensemble forecasts of 2m surface temperature are post-processed using a quantile regression approach based on support vector machines (SVMQR). This approach will be compared to the benchmark postprocessing methods ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), boosted EMOS and quantile regression forests (QRF). Instead of only regarding temperature variables as predictors, other weather variables including time dependence are taken into account as independent variables. The considered dataset consists of observations and forecasts for five years which cover Germany including three different forecast horizons. Despite of a shorter training period for SVMQR in contrast to e.g. boosted EMOS or QRF, SVMQR yields more calibrated quantile ensemble forecasts than the other approaches. Additionally, a comparable performance in terms of CRPS to the benchmark methods and a great improvement in comparison to the raw ensemble forecasts could be detected.

How to cite: Jobst, D., Möller, A., and Groß, J.: Support Vector Machine Quantile Regression based ensemble postprocessing, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13205, 2022.

EGU22-13388 | Presentations | NP5.1

Spatially adaptive Bayesian estimation for Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts 

Annette Möller, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Alex Lenkoski, and Tilmann Gneiting

To account for forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models it has become common practice to employ ensemble prediction systems generating probabilistic forecast ensembles by multiple runs of the NWP model, each time with variations in the details of the numerical model and/or initial and boundary conditions. However, forecast ensembles typically exhibit biases and dispersion errors as they are not able to fully represent uncertainty in NWP models. Therefore, statistical postprocessing models are employed to correct ensembles for biases and dispersion errors in conjunction with recently observed forecast errors.

For incorporating dependencies in space, this work proposes a spatially adaptive extension of the state-of-the-art Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) model. The new approach, named Markovian EMOS (MEMOS), introduces a Markovian dependence structure on the model parameters by employing Gaussian Markov random fields. For fitting the MEMOS model in a Bayesian fashion the recently developed Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach is utilized, allowing for fast and accurate approximation of the posterior distributions of the parameters. To obtain physically coherent forecasts the basic MEMOS model is provided with an additional spatial dependence structure induced by the Ensemble Copula Coupling (ECC) approach, which makes explicit use of the rank order structure of the raw ensemble.

The method is applied to temperature forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) over Europe, where it exhibits comparable or improved performance over univariate EMOS variants.

How to cite: Möller, A., Thorarinsdottir, T., Lenkoski, A., and Gneiting, T.: Spatially adaptive Bayesian estimation for Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13388, 2022.

EGU22-13413 | Presentations | NP5.1

Multivariate post-processing of temporal dependencies with autoregressive and LSTM neural networks 

Daniel Tolomei, Sjoerd Dirksen, Kirien Whan, and Maurice Schmeits

We consider the problem of post-processing forecasts for multiple lead times simultaneously. In particular, we focus on post-processing wind speed forecasts for consecutive lead times (0 - 48h ahead) from the deterministic HARMONIE-AROME NWP model. Given the strong temporal dependency between forecasts at consecutive lead times, it is essential to model the problem as a multivariate statistical post-processing problem in order to take this temporal correlation into account.

A standard procedure in multivariate statistical post-processing is to produce multiple probabilistic forecasts independently for each lead time and introduce the dependency between them at a later stage using an empirical copula. For our specific problem, a successful example of this approach is to use EMOS to fit truncated normal marginal distributions at each lead time and then model the joint distribution by drawing samples from these distributions and reconstructing the temporal dependencies using the Schaake Shuffle.

Our aim is to explore alternative methods that can model and exploit temporal dependencies more explicitly with the goal of improving forecast performance and moving away from sample based distribution modelling. We develop two new methods that produce multivariate truncated normal probabilistic forecasts for all lead times simultaneously, by combining elements from time series analysis and artificial neural networks.

In our first method, we exploit the autoregressive dependencies in the residuals of the NWP wind speed forecasts to deduce an explicit multivariate model. By using a neural network to determine the parameters of this model, we arrive at our first method, which we coin ARMOSnet.

In our second method, we apply Long Short-Term Memory networks, which rank among the state-of-the-art tools for the forecasting of time series. We adapt the LSTM architecture to output a multivariate density that models the temporal dependencies between the consecutive lead times.

We compare our two methods to EMOS combined with the Schaake Shuffle for post-processing wind speed forecasts from the HARMONIE-AROME NWP model. Our new methods both outperform the EMOS-Schaake Shuffle approach in terms of the logarithmic, energy, and variogram scores. Among the two new methods, ARMOSnet exhibits the best performance.

 

How to cite: Tolomei, D., Dirksen, S., Whan, K., and Schmeits, M.: Multivariate post-processing of temporal dependencies with autoregressive and LSTM neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13413, 2022.

EGU22-30 | Presentations | NP2.2

Downward counterfactual insights into weather extremes 

Gordon Woo

There are many regions where the duration of reliable scientific observations of key weather hazard variables, such as rainfall and wind speed, is of the order of just a few decades.  This length of dataset is often inadequate for the application of extreme value theory to rare events. Theoretical analysis of chaotic dynamical systems shows that extremes should be distributed according to the classical Pareto distribution, with explicit expressions for the scaling and shape parameter[1]. Discrepant results may be interpreted as indicating the need for a longer data time series.

Physicists acknowledge that history is just one realisation of what could have happened. One way of supplementing a brief duration observational dataset is to generate an ensemble of alternative realisations of history. Of special practical interest within this counterfactual ensemble are downward counterfactuals - where the outcome turned for the worse.  Extreme hazard events often cause surprise, which reflects an underlying degree of outcome cognitive bias. Downward counterfactual is a term originating in the cognitive psychological literature, which has been applied by Woo[2] to the search for extreme hazard events.  Most human counterfactual thoughts are upward, focusing on risk mitigation or prevention, rather than downward, focusing on potential rare Black Swan events. 

The insight gained from downward counterfactual analysis is illustrated with the example of rainfall and flooding in Cumbria, Northwest England.  Daily rainfall records at Honister Pass, Cumbria, from 1970 to 2004, were statistically analysed to estimate the return period for the rainfall of 301.4mm oberved on 20 November 2009.  This return period was estimated to be 396 years[3].  But six years later, on 5 December 2015, this was substantially exceeded by 341.4mm rainfall.

In 2009, there was only a moderate El Niňo.  Counterfactually, there might have been a strong El Niňo.  Indeed, in 2015 there was a very strong El Niňo. A downward counterfactual analysis of the heavy rainfall on 20 November 2009 would have included the possibility of a very strong El Niňo.  This is one of a number of exacerbating dynamical meteorological factors that might have elevated the rainfall.

Where the data duration is much shorter than the return period of extreme events, a downward counterfactual stochastic simulation of factors raising the hazard will provide important additional insight for geophysical hazard assessment.

 


[1] Lucarini V., Faranda D., Wouters J., Kuna T. (2014) Towards a general theory of extremes for observables of chaotic dynamical systems. J.Stat.Phys., 154, 723-750.

[2] Woo G. (2019) Downward counterfactual search for extreme events.  Front. Earth. Sci. doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00340.

[3] Stewart L., Morris D., Jones D., Spencer P. (2010) Extreme rainfall in Cumbria, November 2009 – an assessment of storm rarity. BHS Third Int. Symp., Newcastle.

How to cite: Woo, G.: Downward counterfactual insights into weather extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-30, 2022.

EGU22-54 | Presentations | NP2.2

Quantification of model uncertainty in the projection of sub-daily maximum wet spell length under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario 

Archana Majhi, Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya, and Sumedha Chakma

Global precipitation characteristics have been significantly altered due to the global warming. While, this is well-known, the sub-daily extreme precipitation events are more sensitive, as compared to the daily-scale. The future intensification of these sub-daily extremes worsen the risk of floods and droughts, thereby posing threat to the natural ecosystem and human society. The ability of general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating the sub-daily precipitation may be inferior, due to their coarser resolutions and complex parametrization schemes. In addition, the characteristics such as the intensity, frequency and duration of sub-daily precipitation may not be correctly simulated by the GCMs. Despite this fact, there are limited studies to investigate the credibility of sub-daily precipitation projections by GCMs, and the related uncertainty. Therefore, in order to investigate the reliability of GCMs in the projections of such extremes, we have used 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models under RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway). The uncertainty is estimated in the projections of maximum wet spell length (WSL) i.e. maximum number of consecutive wet hours in four different meteorological seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON), for both near (2026-45) and far future (2081-99) time periods. The equatorial regions of Africa and South East Asia, showed higher model disagreement during every season. In contrast the equatorial regions of South America and South Asia showed significantly more disagreement during DJF and JJA season. Model uncertainty in each hemisphere is observed to be higher during their respective wet seasons. Though the model uncertainty in far future is varying when compared with that in near future, the uncertainty is not increasing globally. Also, the uncertainty is observed to have significantly decreased during MAM season in far future. The spatial contribution towards higher model uncertainty range, is less as compared to lower uncertainty range over the globe. While the magnitude of model uncertainty is varying with time, the latitudinal heterogeneity remains same in both the time period. 

Keywords: precipitation extremes, sub-daily, wet spell, GCM, projections, uncertainty, RCP 8.5

 

How to cite: Majhi, A., Dhanya, C. T., and Chakma, S.: Quantification of model uncertainty in the projection of sub-daily maximum wet spell length under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-54, 2022.

EGU22-258 | Presentations | NP2.2

The Regional Impact of Wet and Windy Extremes Over Europe, Following North American Cold Spells 

Richard Leeding, Gabriele Messori, and Jacopo Riboldi

Due to the compounding nature of co-occurring weather extremes, these events can be highly detrimental to economies, damaging to infrastructure and result in loss of life. Previous work has established a connection between cold spells over North America and extreme wet and windy weather over Europe. This work attempts to identify a statistical link between the regional impact of wet and windy extremes over Europe based on the regional impact of cold spells over North America. We identify cold spells for 41 overlapping regions over North America for full winter (DJF) seasons between 1979 and 2020 using ERA5 data, employing 4 methodologies for the computation of onset dates. The impact of extreme precipitation and wind events over 6 regions of western and central Europe is analysed. Consistent across all methodologies, cold spells over eastern and mid USA are followed by significant wind extremes over Iberia, whilst cold spells over eastern Canada are followed by significant wind extremes over northern Europe and the British Isles. The regional impact of precipitation extremes shows much greater variance, though we find significant Iberian and southern European precipitation for cold spells over eastern USA, consistent with that found for wind extremes. The majority of extreme precipitation and some significant wind extremes also precede the peak of the cold spell. We show also that the frequency of extreme precipitation and wind events over Iberia increases by 1.5 to more than 2 times the climatological frequency, following cold spells in most North American regions.

How to cite: Leeding, R., Messori, G., and Riboldi, J.: The Regional Impact of Wet and Windy Extremes Over Europe, Following North American Cold Spells, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-258, 2022.

EGU22-470 | Presentations | NP2.2

Relating atmospheric persistence to heatwaves in Europe 

Emma Allwright and Gabriele Messori

Heatwaves cause widespread disruption to society and increased mortality across Europe. These events are often associated with persistent circulations, however, the maintenance mechanisms and characteristics of atmospheric persistence are comparatively poorly understood. We aim to help bridge the gap between qualitative meteorological arguments and mathematical theory relating to heatwaves by quantitatively identifying persistent atmospheric configurations. This will be achieved by calculating indicators associated with dynamical systems theory using ERA5 reanalysis data. We will then spatially compare these indicators with temperature anomalies to determine which regions of Europe are potentially sensitive to these quantities with regards to the occurrence of heatwaves, and if there are specific atmospheric configurations associated to these cases.

How to cite: Allwright, E. and Messori, G.: Relating atmospheric persistence to heatwaves in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-470, 2022.

Unusual, long-lasting configurations of the North Atlantic jet stream affect the weather over Europe leading to persistent surface extremes. We study these persistent jet configurations in winter on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales using CMIP6 simulations, based on temporal averages of three jet indices: the jet latitude index, the jet speed index and the zonal jet index. We define these unusual configurations as long-lasting states, during which the jet stream is further south or further north, stronger or weaker, more split or more merged than usual. We estimate the probability of rare configurations, lasting at least 2 months, based on large deviation rate functions. The rate functions are asymmetric in case of the jet speed index, meaning that anomalously strong jet states are more persistent and more frequent than weak ones. Furthermore, we quantify the increased frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes over affected European regions. Here, we find a stronger link between jet events and precipitation extremes compared to temperature extremes. We observe the largest effects in case of precipitation extremes over the Mediterranean and Western Europe during anomalously strong jet configurations.

How to cite: Galfi, V. M. and Messori, G.: Persistent configurations of the North Atlantic jet stream from the perspective of large deviation theory, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-474, 2022.

EGU22-1594 | Presentations | NP2.2

Past Evolution of Western Europe Large-scale Circulation and Link to Extreme Precipitation Trend in the Northern French Alps 

Antoine Blanc, Juliette Blanchet, and Jean-Dominique Creutin

Detecting trends in regional large-scale circulation (LSC) is an important challenge as LSC is a key driver of local weather conditions. In this work, we investigate the past evolution of Western Europe LSC based on the 500 hPa geopotential height fields from 20CRv2c (1851-2010), ERA20C (1900-2010) and ERA5 (1950-2010) reanalyses. We focus on the evolution of large-scale circulation characteristics using three atmospheric descriptors that are based on analogy, by comparing daily geopotential height fields to each other. They characterize the stationarity of geopotential shape and how well a geopotential shape is reproduced in the climatology. A non-analogy descriptor is also employed to account for the intensity of the centers of action. We then combine the four atmospheric descriptors with an existing weather pattern classification over the period 1950-2019 to study the recent changes in the main atmospheric influences driving precipitation in the Northern French Alps. Even though LSC characteristics and trends are consistent among the three reanalyses after 1950, we find major differences between 20CRv2c and ERA20C from 1900 to 1950 in accordance with previous studies. Notably, ERA20C produces flatter geopotential shapes in the beginning of the 20th century and shows a reinforcement of the meridional pressure gradient that is not observed in 20CRv2c. Over the period 1950-2019, we show that winter Atlantic circulations (zonal flows) tend to be shifted northward and they become more similar to known Atlantic circulations. Mediterranean circulations tend to become more stationary, more similar to known Mediterranean circulations and associated with stronger centers of action in autumn, while an opposite behaviour is observed in winter. Finally, we discuss the responsibility of these LSC changes for extreme precipitation in the Northern French Alps. We show these changes in LSC characteristics are linked to more circulations that are likely to generate extreme precipitation in autumn.

How to cite: Blanc, A., Blanchet, J., and Creutin, J.-D.: Past Evolution of Western Europe Large-scale Circulation and Link to Extreme Precipitation Trend in the Northern French Alps, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1594, 2022.

EGU22-1832 | Presentations | NP2.2

Local drivers of marine heatwaves: A global analysis with an Earth system model 

Linus Vogt, Friedrich Burger, Stephen Griffies, and Thomas Frölicher

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm ocean temperatures that can have devastating impacts on marine
organisms and socio-economic systems. Despite recent advances in understanding the underlying processes of individual events, a
global view of the local oceanic and atmospheric drivers of MHWs is currently missing. Here, we use daily-mean output of
temperature tendency terms from a comprehensive fully coupled Earth system model to quantify the main local processes leading
to the buildup and decay of MHWs in the surface ocean. Our analysis reveals that net ocean heat uptake associated with more
shortwave heat absorption and less latent heat loss is the primary driver of the buildup of MHWs in the subtropics and mid-to-high
latitudes. Reduced vertical mixing from the nonlocal portion of the KPP boundary layer scheme partially dampens the temperature
increase. In contrast, ocean heat uptake is reduced during the MHW build-up in the tropics, where reduced vertical local mixing
and diffusion cause the warming. In the subsequent decay phase, ocean heat loss to the atmosphere dominates the temperature
decrease globally. The processes leading to the buildup and decay of MHWs are similar for short and long MHWs. Different types of
MHWs with distinct driver combinations are identified within the large variability among events. Our analysis contributes to a
better understanding of MHW drivers and processes and may therefore help to improve the prediction of high-impact marine
heatwaves.

How to cite: Vogt, L., Burger, F., Griffies, S., and Frölicher, T.: Local drivers of marine heatwaves: A global analysis with an Earth system model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1832, 2022.

EGU22-1884 | Presentations | NP2.2

Meridional energy transport extremes and the general circulation of NH mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers 

Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori

The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated with the dynamics of the atmosphere at multiple scales, from planetary to synoptic. We use ERA5 reanalysis data to perform a wavenumber decomposition of meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during winter and summer. We then relate extreme transport events to atmospheric circulation anomalies and dominant weather regimes, identified by clustering 500 hPa geopotential height fields. In general, planetary-scale waves determine the strength and meridional position of the synoptic-scale baroclinic activity with their phase and amplitude, but important differences emerge between seasons. During winter, large wavenumbers (= 2 − 3) are key drivers of the meridional energy transport extremes, and planetary and synoptic-scale transport extremes virtually never co-occur. In summer, extremes are associated with higher wavenumbers (= 4 − 6), identified as synoptic-scale motions. We link these waves and the transport extremes to recent results on exceptionally strong and persistent co-occurring summertime heat waves across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. We show that these events are typical, in terms of dominant regime patterns associated with extremely strong meridional energy transports.

Link to pre-print: https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-85/

How to cite: Lembo, V., Fabiano, F., Galfi, V. M., Graversen, R., Lucarini, V., and Messori, G.: Meridional energy transport extremes and the general circulation of NH mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1884, 2022.

EGU22-2001 | Presentations | NP2.2

Text-mining of natural hazard impacts (TM-Impacts): an application to the 2021 flood in Germany 

Mariana Madruga de Brito, Jan Sodoge, Heidi Kreibich, and Christian Kuhlicke

Natural hazards cause a plethora of impacts on society, ranging from direct impacts such as loss of lives to cascading ones such as power outages and supply shortages. Despite the severe social and economic losses of extreme events, a comprehensive assessment of their impacts remains largely missing. Existing studies tend to focus on impacts that are relatively easy to measure (e.g. financial loss, number of deaths) and commonly break down impact assessments into specific sectors (e.g. forestry, agriculture). Thus, in the absence of multi-sector impact datasets, decision-makers have no baseline information for evaluating whether adaptation measures effectively reduce impacts. This can result in blind spots in adaptation.

In recent years, text data (e.g. newspapers, social media, and Wikipedia entries) have been used to elaborate impact datasets. However, the manual extraction of impact information by human experts is a time-consuming task. To develop comprehensive impact datasets, we propose using text-mining on text documents. We developed a tool termed TM-Impacts (text-mining of natural hazard impacts), which allows us to automatically extract information on impacts by applying natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning (ML) tools to text-corpora. TM-Impacts is built upon a previous prototype application (de Brito et al., 2020).

TM-Impacts consists of three complementary modules. The first focuses on using unsupervised topic modelling to identify the main topics covered in the text. These can include not only the disaster impacts but also information on response and recovery. The second module is based on the use of hand-crafted rules and pattern matching to extract information on specific impact types (e.g. traffic disruption, power outages). The final module builds upon the second one, and it uses the resulting labelled data to train supervised ML algorithms aiming to classify unlabeled text data into impact types.

We illustrate the application of TM-Impacts using the example of the 2021 flood in Germany. This event led to more than 180 fatalities and the disruption of critical infrastructure that continued for months after the event. We built a text corpus with more than 26,000 newspaper articles published in 200 different news outlets between July and November 2021. By using TM-Impacts, we were able to detect 20 different impact types, which were mapped at the NUTS 3 scale. We also identified temporal patterns. As expected, during the onset of the event, reporting on impacts tended to focus on deaths and missing people, whereas texts published in November focused on long term impacts such as the disruption of water supply.

In conclusion, we demonstrate that TM-Impacts allows scanning large amounts of text data to build multi-sector impact datasets with a great spatial and temporal stratification. We expect the use of text-mining to become widespread in assessing the impacts of natural hazards.

 

de Brito, M.M., Kuhlicke, C., Marx, A. (2020) Near-real-time drought impact assessment: A text mining approach on the 2018/19 drought in Germany. Environmental Research Letters. doi:org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca

How to cite: Madruga de Brito, M., Sodoge, J., Kreibich, H., and Kuhlicke, C.: Text-mining of natural hazard impacts (TM-Impacts): an application to the 2021 flood in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2001, 2022.

EGU22-2050 | Presentations | NP2.2 | Highlight

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes 

Wim Thiery and the The kids aren't alright team

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heatwaves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared to older generations. This raises important questions about solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years, and that underpin questions of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared to another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations, we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heatwaves, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future.

 

Thiery, W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S.I., Frieler, K., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Bresch, D.N., Zhao, F., Willner, S.N., Büchner, M., Volkholz, J., Andrijevic, M., Bauer, N., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., François, L., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S.N., Hanasaki, N., Hickler, T., Huber, V., Ito, A., Jägermeyr, J., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis, A., Liu, W., Lutz, W., Mengel, M., Müller, C., Ostberg, S., Reyer, C.P.O., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., 2021, Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes, Science, 374(6564), 158-160.

How to cite: Thiery, W. and the The kids aren't alright team: Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2050, 2022.

EGU22-3127 | Presentations | NP2.2

The influence of ENSO and Antarctic Oscillation on extreme precipitation over southeastern South America. 

Xinjia Hu, Damien Decremer, Laura Ferranti, Linus Magnusson, Daoyi Gong, Florian Pappenberger, and Holger Kantz

The Southeastern South American region (SESA) is one of the AR6 WGI reference regions which is used as an illustration of the interplay between climate variability drivers and regional response. Since most of the agricultural activities take place over this region, its climate variability has a strong impact on society. The region is sensitive to extreme precipitation and puts constraints on water resource management. In recent decades, positive rainfall trends have been detected especially during austral summer. Interactions between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) also known as the Southern Annual mode, have been well documented indicating the crucial role of ENSO in modulating the AAO phase. In this paper, we explore the interplay between ENSO and AAO and their effect on extreme precipitation over the SESA region during austral spring and summer. Statistical approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are applied to daily precipitation amounts to model extreme precipitation, identifying the relative impact of ENSO and AAO. We obtained return values for different phases of ENSO and AAO. We also perform dynamical analysis for sea level pressure and wind field to relate large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns with extreme precipitation.

How to cite: Hu, X., Decremer, D., Ferranti, L., Magnusson, L., Gong, D., Pappenberger, F., and Kantz, H.: The influence of ENSO and Antarctic Oscillation on extreme precipitation over southeastern South America., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3127, 2022.

EGU22-3133 | Presentations | NP2.2

A framework for attributing explosive cyclones to climate change: the case study of Alex storm 2020 

Mireia Ginesta, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori, and Davide Faranda

The Extreme Event Attribution field aims at evaluating the impact of global warming linked to anthropogenic emissions on extreme events. This work performs an attribution to climate change of the storm Alex, an explosive extratropical cyclone [1] that hit especially Southern France and Northern Italy at the beginning of October 2020. We apply the analogues method on sea-level pressure maps [2] to identify 30 cyclones that match the dynamical structure of Alex for two periods, the counterfactual and the factual world, namely 1950-1985 and 1985-2021, using 6-hourly ERA5 data. Results show that in the factual period the anticyclonic circulation over the North Atlantic and the cyclonic circulation over Northern Africa are deeper than in the counterfactual. Precipitation differences depict a significant increase over North Italy and the Alps. 2-meter air temperature differences consist of a positive non-uniform pattern, with a significant increase over the Alps and east of Newfoundland. We also have computed two indices in the frame of dynamical systems theory for each period: the persistence, which characterizes the average time that the sea-level pressure pattern remains stationary, and the local dimension, which gives a measure of the predictability of the storm [3]. We found that in the factual world there is a significant increase in the persistence and a modest decrease in the local dimension with respect to the counterfactual. Hence, storms like Alex are more persistent and more predictable in present-like conditions. Cyclone tracking shows that the backward trajectories of the analogues in the factual world are more meridional than in the counterfactual one, while the response for the forward trajectories is less clear. This suggests that under current conditions patterns like Alex are more wavy than in the past. Finally, using the metrics to identify explosive cyclones in [1] , we found the same number of analogues that are explosive cyclones in both periods, although in the counterfactual world they come from lower latitudes and the deepening rates are significantly larger.

References

[1]  Reale, M., M. L. Liberato, P. Lionello, J. G. Pinto, S. Salon, and S. Ulbrich, A global climatology of explosive cyclones using a multi-tracking approach, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 71 (1), 1611,340, 2019.

[2] Yiou, P., AnaWEGE: a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 531–543, 2014.

[3] Faranda, D., G. Messori, and P. Yiou, Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes, Sci Rep, 7, 41,278, 2017.

Acknowledgments

This work is part of the EU International Training Network (ITN) European weather extremes: drivers, predictability and impacts (EDIPI). This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement N° 956396. 

How to cite: Ginesta, M., Yiou, P., Messori, G., and Faranda, D.: A framework for attributing explosive cyclones to climate change: the case study of Alex storm 2020, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3133, 2022.

EGU22-4021 | Presentations | NP2.2

Advances in rare event simulations using data-based estimation of committor functions 

Dario Lucente, Joran Rolland, Corentin Herbert, and Freddy Bouchet

Rare events, such as heat waves, floods, or hurricanes, play a crucial role in climate dynamics mainly due to the large impact they have. Predicting the occurrence of such events is thus a major challenge. 

In this talk, we introduce the relevant mathematical object for predicting a future event: the committor function is the probability that an event will occur, conditioned on the current state of the system. Computing this quantity from observations is an extremely difficult task since rare events have a very low probability of occurring and may not even have been observed in measurements made to date. Similarly, direct simulation of such events with comprehensive climate models comes at a prohibitive computational cost. Hence, rare event algorithms have been devised to simulate rare events efficiently, avoiding the computation of long periods of typical fluctuations.

The effectiveness of these algorithms strongly relies on the knowledge of a measure of how close the event of interest is to occur, called the “score function”. The main difficulty is that the optimal score function is the committor function which is exactly the quantity to be computed. Therefore, it is very natural to consider an iterative procedure where the data produced by the algorithm is used to improve the score function, which in turn improves the algorithm, and so on.

In this presentation, we propose a data-driven approach for computing the committor function, based on a Markov chain approximation of the dynamics of the system (the analogue method). We first illustrate this approach for a paradigmatic toy model of multistability for atmospheric dynamics with six variables (the Charney-Devore model). Secondly, we apply this methodology to data generated from a climate model, in order to study and predict the occurrence of extreme heat waves. In both cases, we show that it is possible to obtain fairly precise estimates of the committor function, even when few observations are available.

In the second part of the talk, we show the advantage of coupling the analogue Markov chain with a rare event algorithm. Indeed, the committor learned with the analogue Markov chain can be used as a score function performing better than user-defined score functions, as we show for the Charney-Devore model. 

This new approach is promising for studying rare events in complex dynamics: the rare events can be simulated with a minimal prior knowledge and the results are much more precise than those obtained with a user-designed score function.

How to cite: Lucente, D., Rolland, J., Herbert, C., and Bouchet, F.: Advances in rare event simulations using data-based estimation of committor functions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4021, 2022.

EGU22-5420 | Presentations | NP2.2

The relation between European heat waves and North Atlantic SSTs: a two-sided composite study 

Julian Krüger, Joakim Kjellsson, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, and Martin Claus
  • The occurrence of extreme weather events has increased during the two last decades.  European heat waves are responsible for social, economic and environmental damage and are projected to increase in magnitude, frequency and duration under global warming, heightening the  interest about the contribution of different drivers. 
  • By using the ERA5 Re-analysis product, we performed a two-sided composite analysis to investigate a potential relation between North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the near-surface air temperature (T2m) over the European continent. Here, we show that in the presence of cold North Atlantic SSTs during summer, the distribution of European T2m shifts towards positive anomalies a few days later, increasing the likelihood for heat waves. During these events a predominant wave number three pattern in addition to regionally confined Rossby wave activity  contribute to a trough-ridge pattern in the North Atlantic-European sector. Specifically, five of 17 European heat waves within the period of 1979 to 2019 could be related to a cold North Atlantic SST event a few days in advance. In the upstream analysis we identify eleven of 17 European heat waves co-existent with cold North Atlantic SSTs. 
  • In order to confirm the crucial role of North Atlantic SSTs for European heat waves, we analysed output from a coupled climate model, HadGEM3, with three different horizontal resolutions. The high-resolution run revealed the closest resemblance to the ERA5 data, suggesting that mechanisms on the mesoscales (<50 km) play a role in the relationship between North Atlantic SSTs and European T2m. Results also highlight the importance of using a climate model with a high horizontal resolution for the purpose of studying the variability of European heat waves.
  • Based upon our results, conducted with ERA5 Re-analysis and HadGEM3 data, North Atlantic SSTs provide potential predictive skill of European heat waves.

How to cite: Krüger, J., Kjellsson, J., Pilch Kedzierski, R., and Claus, M.: The relation between European heat waves and North Atlantic SSTs: a two-sided composite study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5420, 2022.

EGU22-5511 | Presentations | NP2.2

Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy 

Flavio Pons, Miriam D’Errico, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Tao, Cesare Nardini, Frank Lunkeit, and Davide Faranda

Cold and snowy spells are compound extreme events with the potential of causing high socioeconomic impacts. Gaining insight on their dynamics in climate change scenarios could help anticipating the need for adaptation efforts. We focus on winter cold and snowy spells over Italy, reconstructing 32 major events in the past 60 years from documentary sources. Despite warmer winter temperatures,  very recent cold spells have been associated to abundant, and sometimes exceptional snowfall.
Our goal is to analyse the dynamical weather patterns associated to these events, and understand whether those patterns would be more or less recurrent in different emission scenarios using an intermediate complexity model (PlaSim). Our results, obtained by considering RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 end-of-century CO2 concentrations, suggest that the likelihood of analogous synoptic configurations of these extreme cold spells would grow substantially under increased emissions.

This work was supported by the ANR-TERC grant BOREAS and by the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme XAIDA (grant agreement No 101003469)

How to cite: Pons, F., D’Errico, M., Yiou, P., Tao, S., Nardini, C., Lunkeit, F., and Faranda, D.: Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5511, 2022.

EGU22-5734 | Presentations | NP2.2

Simulating extreme cold spells in France with empirical importance sampling 

Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou

Extreme winter cold spells in Europe have huge societal impacts. Being able to simulate worst case scenarios of such events for present and future climates is hence crucial for adaptation. Rare event algorithms have been applied to simulate extreme heatwaves. They have emphasized the role of the atmospheric circulation in such extremes. The goal of this study is to test such algorithms to extreme cold spells.
We focus on cold spells that occur in France since 1950. The analysis is based on the ERA5 reanalysis. We select cold events that have occurred for different time scales (10 days, 1 month, 3 months). We identify record shattering cold events for time scales of 1 and 3 months (in 1956 and 1963). We find that, although the frequency of extreme cold spells decreases with time, their intensity is stationary.
We applied a stochastic weather generator approach with importance sampling, to simulate the worst cold spells that could occur every year since 1950, with lengths of 1 month and 3 months. We hence simulated ensembles of worst winter cold spells that are consistent with observations. Those worst cases are slightly colder than the record shattering events, and do not yield the trend that is observed on the mean temperature. The atmospheric circulation that prevails during those events is analyzed and compared to the observed circulation during the record breaking events.

How to cite: Cadiou, C. and Yiou, P.: Simulating extreme cold spells in France with empirical importance sampling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5734, 2022.

EGU22-6141 | Presentations | NP2.2

Hot and Cold Marine Extreme Events in the Mediterranean over the last four decades 

Amelie Simon, Sandra Plecha, Ana Russo, Ana Teles-Machado, Markus Donat, and Ricardo Trigo

Marine heat waves (MHWs) and cold spells (MCSs) are anomalous ocean temperature events that occur in all oceans and seas with great ecological and economic impacts. The quantification of the relative importance of marine temperature extreme events is often done through the calculation of local metrics, the majority of them not considering explicitly the spatial extent of the events. Here, we propose a ranking methodology to evaluate the relative importance of marine temperature extreme events between 1982 and 2021 within the Mediterranean basin. We introduce a metric, generically termed activity, combining the number of events, duration, intensity and spatial extent of: i) summer MHWs and ii) winter MCSs. Results at the entire Mediterranean scale show that the former dominate in the last two decades while the latter are prevalent in the 1980s and 1990s. Summers with the highest MHW activity were 2018, 2003 and 2015 and winters with the strongest MCS activity took place in 1992, 1984 and 1983. The highest MHW activity occurred in the Gulf of Lion while the highest MCS activity took place preferably in the Aegean basin. According to our proposed definition, the three strongest MHWs almost double the duration, mean intensity, and activity of the three strongest MCSs. The long-term tendency of activity shows a rapid increase for summer MHWs and a linear decrease for winter MCSs in the Mediterranean over the last four decades.

 

We acknowledge the financing support from FCT – JPIOCEANS/0001/2019

How to cite: Simon, A., Plecha, S., Russo, A., Teles-Machado, A., Donat, M., and Trigo, R.: Hot and Cold Marine Extreme Events in the Mediterranean over the last four decades, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6141, 2022.

EGU22-6300 | Presentations | NP2.2

Preferred rossby waves and risks of synchronized heatwaves and harvest failures in observations and model projections 

Kai Kornhuber, Corey Lesk, Carl Schleussner, Jonas Jägermeyer, Peter Pfleiderer, and Radley Horton

Concurrent weather extremes due to a meandering Jetstream can reduce crop productivity across multiple agricultural regions. However, future changes in associated synoptic climate patterns and their agricultural impacts remain unquantified. Here we investigate the ability of coupled climate crop model simulations to reproduce observed regional production impacts and production co-variabilities across major breadbasket regions of the world. We find that although climate models accurately reproduce atmospheric patterns, they underestimate associated surface anomalies in climate models and yield covariability in crop model simulations. Model estimates of future multiple breadbasket failures are therefore likely conservative, despite a projected future intensification of wave pattern-related extremes identified regionally. Our results suggest that climate risk assessments need to account for these high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards.

How to cite: Kornhuber, K., Lesk, C., Schleussner, C., Jägermeyer, J., Pfleiderer, P., and Horton, R.: Preferred rossby waves and risks of synchronized heatwaves and harvest failures in observations and model projections, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6300, 2022.

The occurrence of cold spells over North America leads, on average, to a zonalisation and intensification of the North Atlantic jet stream and results in an enhanced risk of extreme wind and precipitation events over Europe. Cold spells enhance low-level baroclinicity at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track and enhance extratropical cyclogenesis next to the East coast of the United States. However, the mechanisms by which this impact propagates from the entrance to the exit of the storm track, where Europe is, remain unclear.

We investigate from a regime perspective the two-way relationship between the occurrence of cold spells over the eastern coast of North America and the North Atlantic storm track. We stratify the occurrence of cold spells over two different regime classifications of the state of the North Atlantic storm track: the first one based on more classical k-means clustering of 500hPa geopotential height, the other based on dynamical system theory. The regimes have been further characterized using diagnostics acquired from dynamical meteorology, as the E vector or the wave activity flux, and display very different patterns of Rossby wave propagation. The analysis will highlight whether the occurrence of cold spells is able to cause shifts in storm track regimes. On the other hand, if the state of the storm track remains unchanged, this would suggest that other factors rather than cold spells modulate the connection to European wind and temperature extremes.

 

How to cite: Riboldi, J.: A storm-track regime perspective on the connection between cold spells over North America and wet/windy extremes over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6623, 2022.

EGU22-7381 | Presentations | NP2.2

Is the weather getting "weirder"? 

Aglae Jezequel and Davide Fararanda

Climate change has an influence on daily weather. It translates into a heightened public perception of any type of « weird » weather. For example, it has been shown that extreme weather events are seen as pointing towards the reality of climate change. These perceived attributions are not only related to heatwaves, but also to cold spells (Capstick and Pigeon (2014)), and floods (Taylor et al (2014)).

Extreme events however represent only a subset of the weather distribution experienced by the public. Another manifestation of « weird » weather is the succession of very different types of weather in a short period of time, e.g. two following days with a 10°C difference. While this is widely regarded as another manifestation of climate change by the general public, there are only a few studies exploring short timescale weather variability. For example, Cattiaux et al (2015) have found a projected increase in diurnal and interdiurnal variations of European summer temperatures in CMIP5 simulations.

Here, we use the ERA5 reanalyses (1950-2020) over Europe to study observed diurnal and interdiurnal (2, 3, 5 and 7 days) variations of temperature. We focus on extremes (below the 5th percentile and above the 95th percentile of the distribution of temperature differences) for all seasons and independently for each season and calculate trends. While the general result is that, contrarily to popular beliefs, the diurnal and interdiurnal variations have not increased in the observational periods, we show regional differences over Europe and discuss potential explanations for these differences. 

References:
Capstick, S.B., Pidgeon, N.F. Public perception of cold weather events as evidence for and against climate change. Climatic Change 122, 695–708 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1003-1
Cattiaux, J., Douville, H., Schoetter, R., Parey, S. and Yiou, P. (2015), Projected increase in diurnal and interdiurnal variations of European summer temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42: 899– 907. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062531.
Taylor, A., de Bruin, W.B. and Dessai, S. (2014), Climate Change Beliefs and Perceptions of Weather-Related Changes in the United Kingdom. Risk Analysis, 34: 1995-2004. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12234

 

How to cite: Jezequel, A. and Fararanda, D.: Is the weather getting "weirder"?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7381, 2022.

EGU22-8626 | Presentations | NP2.2

Interrelation between the Indian and East Asian Summer Monsoon: A complex network-based approach 

Shraddha Gupta, Zhen Su, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths, Norbert Marwan, and Florian Pappenberger

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) are two integral components of the Asian Summer Monsoon system, largely influencing the agro-based economy of the densely populated southern and eastern parts of Asia. In our study, we use a complex network based approach to investigate the spatial coherence of extreme precipitation in the Asian Summer Monsoon region and gain a deep insight into the complex nature of the interaction between the ISM and the EASM. We identify two dominant modes of ISM-EASM interaction – (a) a southern mode connecting onset of the ISM over the Arabian Sea and southern India in June to the onset of Meiyu over south-eastern China, i.e., lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze river valley, and (b) a northern mode relating the occurrence and intensity of rainfall over the northern and central parts of India to that in northern China during July. Through determination of specific times of high synchronization of extreme precipitation, we distinctly identify the particular large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport patterns associated with each mode. Thereafter, we investigate the role of the different components of the tropical intraseasonal oscillations, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, in the intraseasonal variability of the relationship between the ISM and the EASM.

This work is funded by the CAFE project which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 813844.

How to cite: Gupta, S., Su, Z., Boers, N., Kurths, J., Marwan, N., and Pappenberger, F.: Interrelation between the Indian and East Asian Summer Monsoon: A complex network-based approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8626, 2022.

EGU22-9156 | Presentations | NP2.2

Mechanisms and drivers of the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave 

Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

The Pacific Northwest is characterized by a temperate climate with mild to warm summers, yet in late June 2021, the region was ravaged by extreme heat and ensuing wildfires. With local daily maximum temperatures 20 °C above the long term mean, the occurrence of such a brute heatwave makes it imperative to understand the underlying physical processes. Using the Community Earth System Model, we simulate this exceptional event and disentangle its thermodynamic and dynamic drivers. A factorial experimental design based on the ExtremeX framework is employed, in which the mid and upper-tropospheric circulation and soil moisture are either prescribed using reanalysis (ERA5) data, or calculated interactively. With this setup, the lower troposphere can always respond to land and ocean surface fluxes. Our results indicate that, despite widespread drought conditions in the analysis region (including the metropolitan areas of Portland, Seattle and Vancouver) and surroundings, the dynamic contribution far exceeded the effect of anomalous soil moisture. We further disentangle the soil moisture contribution into initial and event-driven, and find that precipitation in the first half of June 2021 prevented even higher near-surface temperatures by weakening the initial effect. Overall, the analysis highlights the role of the anticyclone that governed the large-scale circulation, and whose intensity during summertime and within 45°N–60 °N surpasses any other event in recent decades. As such, this heatwave presents an opportunity to investigate whether our Earth System Model of choice is capable of generating similarly extreme heat at large spatial scales on its own, i.e. with fully interactive winds. While the mean intensity of hot anticyclonic summer events over land (45°N–60 °N) is underestimated with respect to our reference simulation with prescribed circulation, the model portrays stronger variability with an interactive atmosphere and hence generates heatwaves that rival and even surpass the large-scale temperature anomalies of the Pacific Northwest 2021 event. Our investigation also points to strong temperature anomalies aloft, which we track back in time with a Lagrangian trajectory model driven by ERA5 data. By doing so, we find evidence for intense latent heating of the air that would later be part of the anticyclone, and mixed into the unusually deep atmospheric boundary layer. We further demonstrate that in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, an otherwise identical heatwave would not have reached such extreme temperatures. Altogether, this study shows that for the right atmospheric configuration and fuelled by our changing climate, unprecedented heat may be unleashed even in regions traditionally considered devoid of excessive heatwaves.

How to cite: Schumacher, D. L., Hauser, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Mechanisms and drivers of the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9156, 2022.

EGU22-9257 | Presentations | NP2.2

The response of intense Mediterranean cyclones to climate change 

M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Silvio Gualdi, Davide Faranda, Pedro Ribera, David Gallego, and Cristina Peña-Ortiz

Intense Mediterranean cyclones (IMC) are weather systems that have a high potential for destruction in the densely populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean sea and they cause high risk situations, such as flash floods and large-scale floods with significant impacts on human life and built environment. The aim of the study is to analyse and attribute future changes in IMC under different future forcings and to assess the effect of horizontal model resolution by comparing hydrostatic- versus convection-permitting models. Following a non-linear approach, we explore IMC events that are connected to anomalous atmospheric patterns. First, the analogs search is performed on ERA5 and historical simulations, so as to use the latter as a control run for future projections.  We then examine clusters and trends in the dates of analogs and study their predictability properties in the attractor space (e.g., local dimension and persistence). Then we explore how the trajectories of the precursors of the observed extreme event, emerging from the analog approach, may eventually lead to an IMC event in each available simulation. In this way, we can evaluate the probability of obtaining an observed event, given an initial condition. Finally, we evaluate the physical factors possibly connected to the change of probability of the event.

How to cite: Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Gualdi, S., Faranda, D., Ribera, P., Gallego, D., and Peña-Ortiz, C.: The response of intense Mediterranean cyclones to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9257, 2022.

EGU22-9634 | Presentations | NP2.2 | Highlight

Climate Change on Extreme Winds Already Affects Wind Energy Availability in Europe 

Lia Rapella, Davide Faranda, and Marco Gaetani

Climate change is one of the most urgent challenges that humankind confronts nowadays. In order to mitigate its effects, the European Union aims to be climate-neutral, i.e. set the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to zero, by 2050. In this context, renewable energies (REs) play a key role: on the one hand their development and extensive usage can help to reduce the GHG emissions, on the other hand substantial local changes in atmospheric conditions could modify, for better or for worse, their efficiency. Extreme atmospheric events, in particular, can badly affect the efficiency of the RE infrastructures, preventing them from working or even damaging them. In this work, we focus on wind energy off shore, on the European panorama, with the purpose of estimate the behavior of extreme high winds, over the period 1950-2020, and their impact on wind energy availability. Indeed, the potential wind power production, according to the working regimes of a wind turbine, depends only on the wind speed and, over a certain wind speed threshold, called cut-off speed (25 m s-1), the turbine stops working. By using 6-hourly ERA5 reanalysis data-set and convection permitting simulations, covering the European domain and a period from 1950 to 2020 and from 2000 to 2009 respectively, we analysed the 100 m wind speed over the cut-off threshold and its relation with the geopotential height at 500 hPa, in order to investigate the large-scale weather regimes related to these extreme events. We focused especially on five regions, where high winds flow more frequently: United Kingdom, Denmark, Greece, and the areas off the south of France and north of Spain. By using the Mann-Kendall test, we analysed the trends in the occurrence of extreme events, and we detected significant increasing trends in large areas of the regions selected, particularly during the winter period (DJF). Finally, considering only the events over the 99th percentile, we found that they are often concurrently with storms, and, by means of the K-means clustering algorithm, we identified the different weather regimes at which they occur.

How to cite: Rapella, L., Faranda, D., and Gaetani, M.: Climate Change on Extreme Winds Already Affects Wind Energy Availability in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9634, 2022.

EGU22-10586 | Presentations | NP2.2

Recent changes in persistence over Europe and the World in reanalysis dataset 

Mehmet Sedat Gözlet, Joakim Kjellsson, Abhishek Savita, and Mojib Latif

The intensity and frequency of persistent heat waves and droughts have increased over the last few decades. While some of the changes may be attributed to natural variability, it is a known reality that climate change contributes to these tendencies. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, these anomalies are projected to be accelerated and impact humans, ecology, agricultural events, and natural systems.

Understanding the spatiotemporal structure of heat waves is crucial to deciding what environmental change will affect the above-mentioned impacts. In this study, the temporal autocorrelation of near-surface temperature and 850 hPa geopotential height from daily ERA-5 reanalysis data is examined. The focus is on the period from 1979 to 2019. To explore this 41-year long dataset, spatio-temporal trend analysis is also conducted along with autocorrelation. The trends are inspected under 3, 5, and 7-day lag autocorrelations.

In this context, the summer of 2003 shows a very high autocorrelation of geopotential height over central Europe in this analysis, which is consistent with a persistent heat wave that resulted in a death toll. Along with the yearly analyzed data, the trends are calculated both as a whole and divided into intervals. The trend analysis yields high results that cluster around Northern Africa, the Middle East, Middle China, and Middle Russia in the summer season. Furthermore, in the winter season, Siberia, Middle Africa, and the northern part of South America reflect high trends.

How to cite: Gözlet, M. S., Kjellsson, J., Savita, A., and Latif, M.: Recent changes in persistence over Europe and the World in reanalysis dataset, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10586, 2022.

EGU22-11389 | Presentations | NP2.2

Storylines of past and plausible future climates for recent extreme weather events with coupled climate models 

Antonio Sánchez Benítez, Thomas Jung, Marylou Athanase, Felix Pithan, and Helge Goessling

Under the ongoing climate change, extreme weather events are becoming more prolonged, intense, and frequent; and this trend is expected to continue in a future warmer climate. Several studies have found that the synoptic atmospheric circulation at the time of the event is the main contributing factor in most cases. Moreover, they are shaped by slower processes, including sea-surface temperature and soil moisture, in turn influenced by the history of preceding weather patterns, and by the background climate. The separation of influencing components is exploited by the storyline approach, where an atmosphere model is nudged toward the observed dynamics using different climate boundary conditions. Thus, the storyline approach focuses on the less uncertain thermodynamic influence of climate on extreme events, disregarding the somewhat controversial dynamical changes. This approach provides a very efficient way of making the impacts of climate change more tangible to experts and non-experts alike as events fresh in the people's memory are reproduced in different plausible climates with just moderate computational resources.

Spectral nudging experiments have been run with two coupled climate models, AWI-CM-1 and AWI-CM-3. In these simulations, the large-scale free-troposphere dynamics are constrained toward ERA5 data and the model is run for different boundary conditions. Here, the ocean and sea-ice state are consistently simulated, unlike previous studies which employed atmosphere-only models. Our setups reasonably reproduce daily to seasonal observed anomalies of relevant unconstrained parameters, including near-surface temperature, soil moisture or cloud cover. In particular, our configurations showed satisfactory skills in reproducing two different extreme events: the July 2019 European heat wave, and the July 2021 European extreme rainfall. Therefore, this methodology has been applied to study several extreme events in different climates. To do so, nudged simulations are branched off CMIP6 historical and scenario simulations of the same model. For the particular July 2021 extreme rainfall event, we have run five ensemble members for AWI-CM-1-1-MR for dynamical conditions from 1st January 2017 to 31st July 2021 in pre-industrial, present-day, +2K, and +4K climates. These simulations are complemented with similar experiments for AWI-CM-3. 

The most outstanding finding of these studies is a global warming amplification associated with some events, which exacerbates their exceptionality, especially in a high emission scenario.

How to cite: Sánchez Benítez, A., Jung, T., Athanase, M., Pithan, F., and Goessling, H.: Storylines of past and plausible future climates for recent extreme weather events with coupled climate models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11389, 2022.

EGU22-12152 | Presentations | NP2.2 | Highlight

Attribution of the fall 2021 extreme precipitation event over Italian region of Liguria 

Fabio Di Sante, Emanuela Pichelli, Erika Coppola, Robert Vautard, Paolo Scussolini, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, and Brigitte Dubuisson

Climate change exhibits one of its strongest and shocking effects through extreme precipitation events. Extreme convective precipitation events are getting more intense and more frequent and their attribution to global warming is confirmed by recent studies in many regions of the world. During October the 4th and 5th a Nord-Atlantic trough entering the western Mediterranean favored the formation of deep convective systems feeded by the wet and warm prefrontal flow. One of them built up over the Ligurian Gulf on the 4th. Sustained by long-lasting interaction of large scale conditions and local forcings, the V-shape storm persisted over 24 hours locally accumulating more than 900 mm of rain. The event exceeded local and European precipitation records and caused landslides and flash-floods. In this study we try to objectively link the event to climate change through an extreme value theory analysis. This has been carried out through rain-gauge observations over Liguria, available continuously from 1960 for the fall season. The climate conditions of the event are compared to a pre-industrial period 1.2°C cooler than the present days. The Euro-CORDEX 12km resolution ensemble has been also used to confirm the event attribution to global warming. 

How to cite: Di Sante, F., Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Vautard, R., Scussolini, P., Soubeyroux, J.-M., and Dubuisson, B.: Attribution of the fall 2021 extreme precipitation event over Italian region of Liguria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12152, 2022.

EGU22-12461 | Presentations | NP2.2

S2S Extreme Weather Featurization: A Global Skill Assessment Study 

Zubeida Patel, Gciniwe Baloyi, Campbell Watson, Akram Zaytar, Bianca Zadrozny, Daniel Civitarese, Sibusisiwe Makhanya, and Etienne Vos

A more accurate characterization of S2S extremes may result in great positive societal impact. Featurized S2S forecasts in the form of risk or extreme indices will aid in disaster response (especially for drought and flood events), inform disease outbreaks and heatwave onset, persistence, and decay. In this study, we identify a set of ECMWF-derived extreme weather indices that have spatio-temporal windows of opportunity for better-than-climatology skill. We report on the correlation between ECMWF-derived indices and ground-truth values.  The selected indices can be calculated directly form probabilistic daily forecasts, or alternatively, by training specialized ML-models to process ensembles in a multi-task learning setup. Our goal is to find better approaches to communicate S2S climate risk by deploying a set of ECMWF-derived climate forecast products.

How to cite: Patel, Z., Baloyi, G., Watson, C., Zaytar, A., Zadrozny, B., Civitarese, D., Makhanya, S., and Vos, E.: S2S Extreme Weather Featurization: A Global Skill Assessment Study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12461, 2022.

EGU22-12484 | Presentations | NP2.2

Extreme Value Analysis of Madden-Julian Oscillation Events 

Mónica Minjares, Pascal Yiou, Isabel Serra, Marcelo Barreiro, and Álvaro Corral
The Madden-Julian Oscilation (MJO) is an eastward equatorially propagating mode with a strong influence on the precipitation in the tropics on sub-seasonal timescales. Although, several studies have widely analysed the MJO, its activation and evolution are not fully understood [1].
The purpose of this study is to analyse the statistical features of the most intense MJO events.
We perform the study using two different indices describing the MJO: The popular Wheeler and Hendon index (1979-2021), based on the first two principal components of a multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis of a combination of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and 200 mb and 850 mb zonal winds, as well as the Oliver and Thompson index (1905-2015) based on surface pressures [2].
In this study an event takes place when the index amplitude exceeds a threshold for a certain number of days. With this, we define the observables of an event; these are, the maximum amplitude, duration and size, which is the sum of the amplitudes along the duration of an event.
We use extreme-value theory to fit the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the different distributions of observables and we compare the results with the fitting of a simple power-law tail and other heavy-tailed distributions. We also compare the performance of several advanced extreme-value-statistics tools to find the threshold over which the GPD holds.
 
1.Kiladis, G. N., Dias, J., Straub, K. H., Wheeler, M. C., Tulich, S. N., Kikuchi, K., ... & Ventrice, M. J. (2014). A comparison of OLR and circulation-based indices for tracking the MJO. Monthly Weather Review, 142(5), 1697-1715.
2.Klotzbach, P. J., and E. C. J. Oliver (2015), Variations in global tropical cyclone activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation since the midtwentieth century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4199–4207.

How to cite: Minjares, M., Yiou, P., Serra, I., Barreiro, M., and Corral, Á.: Extreme Value Analysis of Madden-Julian Oscillation Events, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12484, 2022.

EGU22-12508 | Presentations | NP2.2

Complex interactions of extreme events in Southern Europe and Brazil: a compound event perspective 

Ana Russo, Renata Libonati, João L. Geirinhas, Alexandre M. Ramos, Patrícia S. Silva, Pedro M. Sousa, Carlos C. DaCamara, Diego G. Miralles, and Ricardo M. Trigo

Record-breaking natural hazards occur regularly throughout the world, leading to a variety of impacts [1]. According to the WMO, since 1970 there were more than 11000 reported disasters attributed to these hazards globally, with just over 2 million deaths and US$ 3.64 trillion in losses [2]. From 1970 to 2019, weather, climate and water hazards accounted for 50% of all disasters, 45% of all reported deaths and 74% of all reported economic losses [2]. Droughts and heatwaves are both included in the top 4 disasters in terms of human losses [2], with uneven impacts throughout the world and a high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing will increase economic inequality between countries [3].

Nowadays there is strong evidence that droughts and heatwaves are at times synergetic and that their combined occurrence is largely caused by land-atmosphere feedbacks [4]. In fact, increasing trends of Compound Dry and Hot (CDH) events have been observed in both South America [5,6] and Europe [7,8], some of them with aggravated impacts. Specifically, the severe 2020 Pantanal extreme fire season (Brazil) resulted from the interplay between extreme and persistent temperatures (maximum temperatures 6 ºC above-average) and long-term soil dryness conditions [6]. Similarly, in the Iberian Peninsula, CDH events were shown to have an influence on the dramatic 2017 fire season [9] and also on crop losses [8]. Moreover, future climate projections suggest that CDH conditions are expected to become more common in a warming climate [4]. Therefore, it is very important to address weather events in a compound manner, identifying synergies, driving mechanisms and dominant atmospheric modes controlling single and combined hazards.

[1] IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WGI to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte  V. et al., (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. 

[2] WHO, 2021. Weather-related disasters increase over past 50 years, causing more damage but fewer deaths, https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/weather-related-disasters-increase-over-past-50-years-causing-more-damage-fewer

[3] Diffenbaugh N.S., Burke M. (2019) Global warming has increased global economic inequality, PNAS, 116, 20, 9808-9813

[4] Zscheischler J. et al. (2018). Future climate risk from compound events. Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 469–477.

[5] Geirinhas J.L. et al. (2021). Recent increasing frequency of compound summer drought and heatwaves in Southeast Brazil. Environ. Res.  Lett., 16(3).

[6] Libonati R. et al (2022) Assessing the role of compound drought and heatwave events on unprecedented 2020 wildfires in the Pantanal, Environ. Res. Lett. 17 015005.

[7] Geirinhas J.L. et al. (2020) Heat-related mortality at the beginning of the twenty-first century in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Int. J. Biometeorol., 64, 1319–1332

[8] Russo A. et al. (2019) The synergy between drought and extremely hot summers in the Mediterranean. Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 014011

[9] Ribeiro A.F.S. et al. (2020) Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas. Biogeosciences, 17, 4815–4830

[10] Turco M. et al. (2019) Climate drivers of the 2017 devastating fires in Portugal. Sci. Rep., 9, 1

 

This work was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal) under projects PTDC/CTA-CLI/28902/2017, JPIOCEANS/0001/2019 and FCT- UIDB/50019/2020 –IDL.

 

 

How to cite: Russo, A., Libonati, R., Geirinhas, J. L., Ramos, A. M., Silva, P. S., Sousa, P. M., DaCamara, C. C., Miralles, D. G., and Trigo, R. M.: Complex interactions of extreme events in Southern Europe and Brazil: a compound event perspective, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12508, 2022.

Atmospheric water management or cloud seeding technologies might be effectively applied to assess the impacts from changing climate on water security and renewable energy use. During said assessments it might be possible to exploit their observations to mitigate the negative impacts from climate change by enhancing the water supply as part of a water security plan, and/or by effectively removing low-level supercooled cloud decks/fogs to facilitate renewable energy use providing added sunshine during typically overcast day-time periods. Cloud seeding technologies are used to positively affect the natural hydrologic cycle, while respecting and avoiding damage to public health, safety and the environment.  This talk summarizes atmospheric water management technologies and their use, how these technologies might be applied as part of a strategy to ensure water security and how their application might provide a potential opportunity for recouping lost energy potential.

How to cite: DeFelice, T.: The role atmospheric water management technologies might play in Nature-based solutions (NbS), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1941, 2022.

EGU22-2263 | Presentations | GI6.3

EasyGeoModels: a New Tool to Investigate Seismic and Volcanic Deformations Retrieved through Geodetic Data. Software Implementation and Examples on the Campi Flegrei Caldera and the 2016 Amatrice Earthquake 

Giuseppe Solaro, Sabatino Buonanno, Raffaele Castaldo, Claudio De Luca, Adele Fusco, Mariarosaria Manzo, Susi Pepe, Pietro Tizzani, Emanuela Valerio, Giovanni Zeni, Simone Atzori, and Riccardo Lanari

The increasingly widespread use of space geodesy has resulted in numerous, high-quality surface deformation data sets. DInSAR, for instance, is a well-established satellite technique for investigating tectonically active and volcanic areas characterized by a wide spatial extent of the inherent deformation. These geodetic data can provide important constraints on the involved fault geometry and on its slip distribution as well as on the type and position of an active magmatic source. For this reason, over last years, many researchers have developed robust and semiautomatic methods for inverting suitable models to infer the source type and geometry characteristics from the retrieved surface deformations.

In this work we will present a new software we have implemented, named easyGeoModels, that can be used by geophysicists but also by less skilled users who are interested in sources modeling to determine ground deformation in both seismo-tectonic and volcanic contexts. This software is characterized by some innovative aspects compared to existing similar tools, such as (i) the presence of an easy-to-use graphic interface that allows the user, even if not particularly expert, to manage the data to be inverted, the input parameters of one or more sources, the choice of the deformation source (s), effective and simple way; (ii) the possibility of selecting the GPS data to be inverted, simply by selecting the area of interest: in this case the software will automatically consider for the inversion only the GPS stations present in the selected area and will download the relative data from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory site; (iii) the generation of output files in Geotiff, KMZ and Shapefile format, which allow a faster and more immediate visualization through GIS tools or Google Earth.

Finally, as applications, we will show some preliminary results obtained through the easyGeoModels software on areas characterized by huge deformation both in a volcanic context, such as that of the Campi Flegrei caldera, and a seismo-tectonic one, as for the case of the Amatrice earthquake (central Italy) which occurred on 24 August 2016.

How to cite: Solaro, G., Buonanno, S., Castaldo, R., De Luca, C., Fusco, A., Manzo, M., Pepe, S., Tizzani, P., Valerio, E., Zeni, G., Atzori, S., and Lanari, R.: EasyGeoModels: a New Tool to Investigate Seismic and Volcanic Deformations Retrieved through Geodetic Data. Software Implementation and Examples on the Campi Flegrei Caldera and the 2016 Amatrice Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2263, 2022.

EGU22-4876 | Presentations | GI6.3 | Highlight

Geodetic imaging of the magma ascent process during the 2021 Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Canary Islands) eruption 

Monika Przeor, José Barrancos, Raffaele Castaldo, Luca D’Auria, Antonio Pepe, Susi Pepe, Takeshi Sagiya, Giuseppe Solaro, and Pietro Tizzani

On the 11th of September of 2021, a seismic sequence began on La Palma (Canary Islands), followed by a rapid and significant ground deformation reaching more than 10 cm in the vertical component of the permanent GNSS station ARID (Aridane) operated by the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN). The pre-eruptive episode lasted only nine days and was characterized by an intense deformation in the western part of the island and intense seismicity with the upward migration of hypocenters. After the onset of the eruption, which occurred on the 19th of September of 2021, the deformation increased a few cm more, reaching a maximum on the 22nd of September and subsequently showing a nearly steady deflation trend in the following months.

We obtained a Sentinel-1 DInSAR dataset along both ascending and descending orbits, starting from the 27th of February of 2021 and the 13th of January of 2021, respectively. We selected the study area at the radial distance of 13 km from the eruption point (Latitude: 28.612; Longitude: -17.866) to realize an inverse model of the geometry of the causative sources of the observed ground deformation. While the ascending orbit that passed on the 18th of September indicated mainly a dike intrusion in the shallow depth, the descending orbit from the 20th of September seemed to indicate a deformation caused by at least two sources: the pre-eruptive intrusion and the nearly-vertical eruptive dike. The deeper source spatially coincides with the location of most of the pre-eruptive volcano-tectonic hypocenters.

Finally, based on the preliminary inverse model of the DInSAR dataset, we applied the geodetic imaging of D’Auria et al., (2015) to retrieve the time-varying spatial distribution of volumetric ground deformation sources. The final results show the kinematics of the upward dike propagation and magma ascent.

 

References

D’Auria, L., Pepe, S., Castaldo, R., Giudicepietro, F., Macedonio, G., Ricciolino, P., ... & Zinno, I. (2015). Magma injection beneath the urban area of Naples: a new mechanism for the 2012–2013 volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera. Scientific reports, 5(1), 1-11.

How to cite: Przeor, M., Barrancos, J., Castaldo, R., D’Auria, L., Pepe, A., Pepe, S., Sagiya, T., Solaro, G., and Tizzani, P.: Geodetic imaging of the magma ascent process during the 2021 Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Canary Islands) eruption, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4876, 2022.

EGU22-5431 | Presentations | GI6.3

Modeling Potential Impacts of Gas Exploitation on the Israeli Marine Ecosystem Using Ecopath with Ecosim 

Ella Lahav, Peleg Astrahan, Eyal Ofir, Gideon Gal, and Revital Bookman

Exploration, production, extraction and transport of fossil fuels in the marine environment are accompanied by an inherent risk to the surrounding ecosystems as a result of the on-going operations or due to technical faults, accidents or geo-hazards. Limited work has been conducted on potential impacts on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem due to the lack of information on organism responses to hydrocarbon pollution. In this study, we used the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling software which is designed for policy evaluation and provides assessments of impacts of various stressors on an ecosystem. An existing EwE based Ecospace food-web model of the Israeli Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) was enhanced to include local organism response curves to various levels of contaminants, such as crude oil, in the water and on the sea floor sediments. The goal of this study is to evaluate and quantify the possible ecological impacts of pollution events that might occur due to fossil fuel exploitation related activities. Multiple spatial static and dynamic scenarios, describing various pollution quantities and a range of habitats and locations were constructed. Using the enhanced Ecospace models for assessing the potential impacts of gas exploitation on organism biomass, the spatial and temporal distribution and food-web functioning was tested and evaluated. The results of this study will show a quantitative assessment of the expected ecological impacts that could assist decision makers in developing management and conservation strategies.

How to cite: Lahav, E., Astrahan, P., Ofir, E., Gal, G., and Bookman, R.: Modeling Potential Impacts of Gas Exploitation on the Israeli Marine Ecosystem Using Ecopath with Ecosim, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5431, 2022.

EGU22-5618 | Presentations | GI6.3

Slope stability monitoring system via three-dimensional simulations of rockfalls in Ischia island, Southern Italy 

Ada De Matteo, Massimiliano Alvioli, Antonello Bonfante, Maurizio Buonanno, Raffaele Castaldo, and Pietro Tizzani

Volcanoes are dynamically active systems in continuous evolution. This behaviour is emphasized by many different processes, e.g., fumarolic activity, earthquakes, volcanic slope instabilities and volcanic climax eruptions. Volcanic edifices experience slope instability as consequence of different solicitations such as i) eruption mechanism and depositional process, ii) tectonic stresses, iii) extreme weather conditions; all these events induce the mobilization of unstable fractured volcanic flanks.

Several methods exist to gather information about slope stability and to map trajectories followed by individual falling rocks in individual slopes. These methods involve direct field observation, laser scanning, terrestrial or aerial photogrammetry. Such information is useful to infer the likely location of future rockfalls, and represent a valuable input for the application of three-dimensional models for rockfall trajectories.

The Ischia island is volcano-tectonic horst that is a part of the Phlegrean Volcanic District, Southern Italy. It covers an area of about 46 km2 and it has experienced a remarkable ground uplift events due to a resurgence phenomenon. Slope instability is correlated both with earthquakes events and with volcanism phenomena. Specifically, evidences suggest that rockfalls occurred as an effect of the gravitational instability on the major scarps generated by the rapid resurgence, eased by the widespread rock fracturing.

We present results of an analysis relevant to the most probable individual masses trajectories of rockfall affecting the slopes of Ischia island. We first identified the prospective rockfall sources through an expert-mapping of source area in sample locations and statistical analysis on the whole island. Probabilistic sources are the main input of the three-dimensional rockfalls simulation software STONE.

The software assumes point-like masses falling under the sole action of gravity and the constraints of topography, and it calculates trajectories dominated by ballistic dynamics during falling, bouncing and rolling on the ground. Analysis of high-definition critical sector pictures, achieved by using UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) platform, will allow a detailed localization of source areas and an additional more robust simulations.

The procedure can be viewed as a multiscale analysis and allows besting allocating computational efforts and economic resources, focusing on a more detailed analysis on the slopes identified as the most risky ones during the first, large-scale analysis of the whole area.

How to cite: De Matteo, A., Alvioli, M., Bonfante, A., Buonanno, M., Castaldo, R., and Tizzani, P.: Slope stability monitoring system via three-dimensional simulations of rockfalls in Ischia island, Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5618, 2022.

EGU22-6226 | Presentations | GI6.3

The framework for improving air quality monitoring over Indian cities 

Arindam Roy, Athanasios Nenes, and Satoshi Takahama

Indian air quality monitoring guideline is directly adopted from World Health Organization (1977) guidelines without place-based modification. According to Indian air quality guidelines (2003), the location of monitoring sites should be determined from air quality modeling and previous air quality information. If such information is not available, the use of emission densities, wind data, land-use patterns and population information is recommended for prioritizing areas for air quality monitoring. The mixed land-use distribution over Indian cities and randomly distributed sources pose serious challenges, as Indian cities (unlike in other parts of the world) are characterized by a lack of distinct residential, commercial, and industrial regions, so the concept of “homogeneous emissions” (which have guided site monitoring decisions) simply does not apply. In addition, the decision-making data emission and population information, are either not available or outdated for Indian cities. Unlike the cities in Global North, the Indian urban-scape has distinguished features in terms of land use, source and population distribution which has not been addressed in air quality guidelines.

We have developed an implementable place-based framework to address the above problem of establishing effective new air quality stations in India and other regions with complex land-use patterns. Four Indian million-plus cities were selected for the present study; Lucknow, Pune, Nashik and Kanpur. We broadly classified air quality monitoring objectives into three; monitoring population exposure, measurements for compliance with the national standards and characterization of sources. Each monitoring station over four cities was evaluated and metadata has been created for each station to identify its monitoring objective for each of the stations. We find that present air quality monitoring networks are highly inadequate in characterizing average population exposure throughout each city, as current stations are predominantly located at the site of pedestrian exposure, and are not representative of the city-wide exposure.

Possible new sites for monitoring were identified using night-time light data, satellite-derived PM2.5, existing emission inventories, land-use patterns and other ancillary open-sourced data. Over Lucknow, Pune and Nashik, setting up stations at highly populated areas is recommended to fulfill the knowledge gaps on the average population exposure. Over Kanpur, it was recommended to incorporate stations to measure short-term pollution exposure in traffic and industrial sites. Rapidly developing peri-urban regions were identified using night-time light data and recommendations were provided for setting up monitoring stations in these regions.

How to cite: Roy, A., Nenes, A., and Takahama, S.: The framework for improving air quality monitoring over Indian cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6226, 2022.

EGU22-6374 | Presentations | GI6.3

Geochemical monitoring of the Tenerife North-East and North West Rift Zones by means of diffuse degassing surveys 

Lía Pitti Pimienta, Fátima Rodríguez, María Asensio-Ramos, Gladys Melián, Daniel Di Nardo, Alba Martín-Lorenzo, Mar Alonso, Rubén García-Hernández, Víctor Ortega, David Martínez Van Dorth, María Cordero, Tai Albertos, Pedro A. Hernández, and Nemesio M. Pérez

Tenerife (2,034 km2), the largest island of the Canarian archipelago, is characterized by three volcanic rifts NW-SE, NE-SW and N-S oriented, with a central volcanic structure in the middle, Las Cañadas Caldera, hosting Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex. The North-West Rift-Zone (NWRZ) is one of the youngest and most active volcanic systems of the island, where three historical eruptions (Boca Cangrejo in 16th Century, Arenas Negras in 1706 and Chinyero in 1909) have occurred, whereas the North-East Rift-Zone (NERZ) is more complex than the others due to the existence of Pedro Gil stratovolcano that broke the main NE-SW structure 0.8 Ma ago. The most recent eruptive activity along the NERZ took place during 1704 and 1705 across 13 km of fissural eruption in Siete Fuentes (Arafo-Fasnia). To monitor potential volcanic activity through a multidisciplinary approach, diffuse degassing studies have been carried out since 2000 at the NWRZ (72 km2) and since 2001 at the NERZ (210 km2) in a yearly basis. Long-term variations in the diffuse CO2 output in the NWRZ have shown a temporal correlation with the onsets of seismic activity at Tenerife, supporting unrest of the volcanic system, as is also suggested by anomalous seismic activity recorded in the studied area during April, 2004 and October, 2016 (Hernández et al., 2017). In-situ measurements of CO2 efflux from the surface environment were performed according to the accumulation chamber method using a portable non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensor. Soil CO2 efflux values for the 2021 survey ranged between non-detectable values and 104 g·m-2·d-1, with an average value of 8 g·m-2·d-1 for NWRZ. For NERZ, soil CO2 efflux values ranged between non-detectable values and 79 g·m2·d-1, with an average value of 7 g·m-2·d-1. The probability plot technique applied to the data allowed to distinguish different geochemical populations. Background population represented 49.2% and 74.0% of the total data for NWRZ and NERZ, respectively, with a mean value (1.7 - 2.0 g·m-2·d-1) similar to the background values calculated for other volcanic systems in the Canary Islands with similar soils, vegetation and climate (Hernández et al. 2017). Peak population represented 0.9 and 0.7% for NWRZ and NERZ, respectively and with a mean value of 45 and 57 g·m-2·d-1. Soil CO2 efflux contour maps were constructed to identify spatial-temporal anomalies and to quantify the total CO2 emission using the sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) interpolation method. Diffuse emission rate of 506 ± 22 t·d-1 for NWRZ and 1,509 ± 58 t·d-1 NERZ were obtained. The normalized CO2 emission value by area was estimated in 7.03 t·d-1·km-1 for NWRZ and in 7.2 t·d-1·km-1 for NERZ. The monitorization of the diffuse CO2 emission contributes to detect early warning signals of volcanic unrest, especially in areas where visible degassing is non-existent as in the Tenerife NWRZ and NERZ.

Hernández et al. (2017). Bull Volcanol, 79:30, DOI 10.1007/s00445-017-1109-9.

How to cite: Pitti Pimienta, L., Rodríguez, F., Asensio-Ramos, M., Melián, G., Di Nardo, D., Martín-Lorenzo, A., Alonso, M., García-Hernández, R., Ortega, V., Martínez Van Dorth, D., Cordero, M., Albertos, T., Hernández, P. A., and Pérez, N. M.: Geochemical monitoring of the Tenerife North-East and North West Rift Zones by means of diffuse degassing surveys, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6374, 2022.

Two moderate earthquakes with magnitude ML5.0 happened on 11th of November 2020 near the Mavrovo lake in northwestern Macedonia. The lake is an artificial lake with a dam built between 1947 and filled by 1953. Its maximum length is 10km, width is 5km and the depth is 50m. Given its water volume, it is possible that geological factors causing earthquakes could also affect the hydrobiological characteristics of the flow system surrounding the lake.

A list of 180 earthquakes registered by the local stations with magnitudes equal or greater than ML1.7 was analysed in terms of temporal and spatial distribution around the lake. No specific clustering of events was noticed in the foreshock period from July 2020. In the aftershock period, the most numerous events lasted about a month after the main events. However, there was another period of increased seismicity during March 2021, followed by gradual decrease onwards. The distribution of epicentres was mainly along the terrain of Radika river and a few smaller tributaries to the lake system.

A comparative analysis was done with the dataset collected by the program run at the department of Biology at the Faculty of Natural Sciences, University UKIM in Skopje. Environmental investigations in Europe have shown stress reactions of hydrobionts in respect to water temperature and heavy metal pollution, for example the influence of radioactive radiation. Earthquake-induced seismic changes most often affect the chemical-physical properties of water quality and temperature stratification, i.e., mixing of water masses. In our research, we analyse for the first time the relationship between the seismological activities in the Jul 2020-Nov 2021 period in details and a possible impact to environment thru the population of macrozoobenthos from Mavrovo Lake.

How to cite: Sinadinovski, C. and Smiljkov, S.: Numerical analysis of Seismic and Hydrobiological data around lake Mavrovo in the period Jul.2020-Nov.2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6452, 2022.

EGU22-6468 | Presentations | GI6.3

Measuring greenhouse gas fluxes – what methods do we have versus what methods do we need? 

David Bastviken, Julie Wilk, Nguyen Thanh Duc, Magnus Gålfalk, Martin Karlson, Tina Neset, Tomasz Opach, Alex Enrich Prast, and Ingrid Sundgren

Appropriate methods to measure greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes are critical for our ability to detect fluxes, understand regulation, make adequate priorities for climate change mitigation efforts, and verify that these efforts are effective. Ideally, we need reliable, accessible, and affordable measurements at relevant scales. We surveyed present GHG flux measurement methods, identified from an analysis of >11000 scientific publications and a questionnaire to sector professionals and analysed method pros and cons versus needs for novel methodology. While existing methods are well-suited for addressing certain questions, this presentation presents fundamental limitations relative to GHG flux measurement needs for verifiable and transparent action to mitigate many types of emissions. Cost and non-academic accessibility are key aspects, along with fundamental measurement performance. These method limitations contribute to the difficulties in verifying GHG mitigation efforts for transparency and accountability under the Paris agreement. Resolving this mismatch between method capacity and societal needs is urgently needed for effective climate mitigation. This type of methodological mismatch is common but seems to get high priority in other knowledge domains. The obvious need to prioritize development of accurate diagnosis methods for effective treatments in healthcare is one example. This presentation provides guidance regarding the need to prioritize the development of novel GHG flux measurement methods.

How to cite: Bastviken, D., Wilk, J., Duc, N. T., Gålfalk, M., Karlson, M., Neset, T., Opach, T., Enrich Prast, A., and Sundgren, I.: Measuring greenhouse gas fluxes – what methods do we have versus what methods do we need?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6468, 2022.

EGU22-8458 | Presentations | GI6.3

Temporal evolution of dissolved gases in groundwater of Tenerife Island 

Cecilia Amonte, Nemesio M. Pérez, Gladys V. Melián, María Asensio-Ramos, Eleazar Padrón, Pedro A. Hernández, and Ana Meire Feijoo

The oceanic active volcanic island of Tenerife (2,034 km2) is the largest of the Canarian archipelago. There are more than 1,000 galleries (horizontal drillings) in the island, which are used for groundwater exploitation and allow reaching the aquifer at different depths and elevations. This work presents the first extensive study on the temporal variation of dissolved gases in groundwaters from Fuente del Valle and San Fernando galleries (Tenerife, Spain) since April 2016 to June 2020. This investigation is focused on the chemical and isotopic content of several dissolved gas species (CO2, He, O2, N2 and CH4) present in the groundwaters and its relationship with the seismic activity registered in the island. The results show CO2 as the major dissolved gas specie in the groundwater from both galleries presenting a mean value of 260 cm3STP·L-1 and 69 cm3STP·L-1 for Fuente del Valle and San Fernando, respectively. The average δ13C-CO2 data (-3.9‰ for Fuente del Valle and -6.4‰ for San Fernando) suggest a clear endogenous origin as result of interaction of them with deep-origin fluid. A bubbling gas sample from Fuente del Valle gallery was analysed, obtaining a CO2 rich gas (87 Vol.%) with a considerable He enrichment (7.3 ppm). The isotopic data of both components in the bubbling gas support the results obtained in the dissolved gases, showing an endogenous component that could be affected by the different activity of the hydrothermal system. During the study period, an important seismic swarm occurred on October 2, 2016, followed by an increase of the seismic activity in and around Tenerife. After this event, important geochemical variations were registered in the dissolved gas species, such as dissolved CO2 and He content and the CO2/O2, He/CO2, He/N2 and CH4/CO2 ratios. These findings suggest an injection of fluids into the hydrothermal system during October 2016, a fact that evidences the connection between the groundwaters and the hydrothermal system. The present work demonstrates the importance of dissolved gases studies in groundwater for volcanic surveillance.

How to cite: Amonte, C., Pérez, N. M., Melián, G. V., Asensio-Ramos, M., Padrón, E., Hernández, P. A., and Meire Feijoo, A.: Temporal evolution of dissolved gases in groundwater of Tenerife Island, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8458, 2022.

Land surface temperature (LST) is a manifestation of the surface thermal environment (LSTE) and an important driver of physical processes of surface land energy balance at local to global scales. Tenerife is one of the most heterogeneous islands among the Canaries from a climatological and bio-geographical point of view. We study the surface thermal conditions of the volcanic island with remote sensing techniques. In particular, we consider a time series of Landsat 8 (L8) level 2A images for the period 2013 to 2019 to estimate LST from surface reflectance (SR) and brightness Temperature (BT) images. A total of 26 L8 dates were selected based on cloud cover information from metadata (land cloud cover < 10%) to estimate pixel-level LST with an algorithm based on Radiative Transfer Equations (RTE). The algorithm relies on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for estimating emissivity pixel by pixel. We apply the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) that revealed to be a powerful tool for data mining and, in particular, to separate multivariate LST dataset into a finite number of components, which have the maximum relative statistical independence. The ICA allowed separating the land surface temperature time series of Tenerife into 11 components that can be associated with geographic and bioclimatic zones of the island. The first ten components are related to physical factors, the 11th component, on the contrary, presented a more complex pattern resulting possibly from its small amplitude and the combination of various factors into a single component. The signal components recognized with the ICA technique, especially in areas of active volcanism, could be the basis for the space-time monitoring of the endogenous component of the LST due to surface hydrothermal and/or geothermal activity. Results are encouraging, although the 16-day revisit frequency of Landsat reduces the frequency of observation that could be increased by applying techniques of data fusion of medium and coarse spatial resolution images. The use of such systems for automatic processing and analysis of thermal images may in the future be a fundamental tool for the surveillance of the background activity of active and dormant volcanoes worldwide.

How to cite: Stroppiana, D., Przeor, M., D’Auria, L., and Tizzani, P.: Analysis of thermal regimes at Tenerife(Canary Islands) with Independent Component Analysis applied to time series of Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperatures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8580, 2022.

EGU22-9376 | Presentations | GI6.3

An IoT based approach to ultra high resolution air quality mapping thorigh field calibrated monitoring devices 

Saverio De Vito, Grazia Fattoruso, and Domenico Toscano

Recent advances in IoT and chemical sensors calibration technologies have led to the proposal of Hierarchical air quality monitoring networks. They are indeed complex systems relying on sensing nodes which differs from size, cost, accuracy, technology, maintenance needs while having the potential to empower smart cities and communiities with increased knowledge  on the highly spatiotemporal variance Air Quality phenomenon (see [1]). The AirHeritage project, funded by Urban Innovative Action program have developed and implemented a hierarchical monitoring system which allows for offering real time assessments and model based forecasting services including 7 fixed low cost sensors station, one (mobile and temporary located) regulatory grade analyzer and a citizen science based ultra high resolution AQ mapping tool based on field calibrated mobile analyzers. This work will analyze the preliminary results of the project by focusing on the machine learning driven sensors calibration methodology and citizen science based air quality mapping campaigns. Thirty chemical and particulate matter multisensory devices have been deployed in Portici, a 4Km2 city located 7 km south of Naples which is  affected by significant car traffic. The devices have been  entrusted to local citizens association for implementing 1 preliminary validation campaign (see [2]) and 3 opportunistic 2-months duration monitoring campaigns. Each 6 months, the devices undergoes a minimum 3 weeks colocation period with a regulatory grade analyzer allowing for training and validation dataset building. Multilinear regression sw components are trained to reach ppb level accuracy (MAE <10ug/m^3 for NO2 and O3, <15ug/M^3 for PM2.5 and PM10, <300ug/M^3 for CO) and encoded in a companion smartphone APP which allows the users for real time assessment of personal exposure. In particular, a novel AQI strongly based on European Air Quality Index ([3]) have been developed for AQ real time data communication. Data have been collected using a custom IoT device management platform entrusted with inception, storage and data-viz roles. Finally data have been used to build UHR (UHR) AQ maps, using spatial binning approach (25mx25m) and median computation for each bin receiving more than 30 measurements during the campaign. The resulting maps have hown the possibility to allow for pinpointing city AQ hotpots which will allows fact-based remediation policies in cities lacking objective technologies to locally assess concentration exposure.  

 

[1] Nuria Castell et Al., Can commercial low-cost sensor platforms contribute to air quality monitoring and exposure estimates?, Environment International, Volume 99, 2017, Pages 293-302 ISSN 0160-4120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.12.007.

[2] De Vito, S, et al., Crowdsensing IoT Architecture for Pervasive Air Quality and Exposome Monitoring: Design, Development, Calibration, and Long-Term Validation. Sensors 202121, 5219. https://doi.org/10.3390/s21155219

[3] https://airindex.eea.europa.eu/Map/AQI/Viewer/

How to cite: De Vito, S., Fattoruso, G., and Toscano, D.: An IoT based approach to ultra high resolution air quality mapping thorigh field calibrated monitoring devices, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9376, 2022.

EGU22-10290 | Presentations | GI6.3

Soil gas Rn monitoring at Cumbre Vieja prior and during the 2021 eruption, La Palma, Canary Islands 

Daniel Di Nardo, Eleazar Padrón, Claudia Rodríguez-Pérez, Germán D. Padilla, José Barrancos, Pedro A. Hernández, María Asensio-Ramos, and Nemesio M. Pérez

Cumbre Vieja volcano (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain) suffered a volcanic eruption that started on September 19 and finished on December 13, 2021. The eruption is considered the longest volcanic event since data are available on the island: it finished after 85 days and 8 hours of duration and 1,219 hectares of lava flows. La Palma Island is the fifth in extension (706 km2) and the second in elevation (2,423 m a.s.l.) of the Canarian archipelago. Cumbre Vieja volcano, where the volcanic activity has taken place exclusively in the last 123 ka, forms the sand outhern part of the island. In 2017, two remarkable seismic swarms interrupted a seismic silence of 46 years in Cumbre Vieja volcano with earthquakes located beneath Cumbre Vieja volcano at depths ranging between 14 and 28 km with a maximum magnitude of 2.7. Five additional seismic swarms were registered in 2020 and four in 2021. The eruption started ~1 week after the start of the last seismic swarm.

As part of the INVOLCAN volcano monitoring program of Cumbre Vieja, soil gas radon (222Rn) and thoron (220Rn) is being monitored at five sites in Cumbre Vieja using SARAD RTM2010-2 RTM 1688-2 portable radon monitors. 222Rn and 220Rn are two radioactive isotopes of radon with a half-life of 3.8 days and 54.4 seconds, respectively. Both isotopes can diffuse easily trough the soil and can be detected at very low concentrations, but their migration in large scales, ten to hundreds of meters, is supported by advection (pressure changes) and is related to the existence of a carrier gas source (geothermal fluids or fluids linked to magmatic and metamorphic phenomena), and to the existence of preferential routes for degassing (deep faults). Previous results on the monitoring of soil Rn in the Canary Islands with volcano monitoring purposes are promising (Padilla et al, 2013).     

The most remarkable result of the Rn monitoring network of Cumbre Vieja was observed in LPA01 station, located at the north-east of Cumbre Vieja. Since mid-March 2021, soil 222Rn activity experienced a sustained until reaching maximum values of ~1.0E+4 222Rn Bq/m3 days before the eruption onset. During the eruptive period, soil 222Rn activity showed a gradual decreasing trend. The increase of magmatic-gas pressure due to magma movement towards the surface and the transport of anomalous 222Rn originated from hydrofracturing of rock, from direct magma degassing or from both, is the most plausible explanation for the increases in radon activity before the eruption onset observed at LPA01. As soil gas radon activity increased prior to the eruption onset, this monitoring technique can be efficiently used as an initial warning sign of the pressurization of magma beneath La Palma Island.

Padilla, G. D., et al. (2013), Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 14, 432–447, doi:10.1029/2012GC004375.

 

How to cite: Di Nardo, D., Padrón, E., Rodríguez-Pérez, C., Padilla, G. D., Barrancos, J., Hernández, P. A., Asensio-Ramos, M., and Pérez, N. M.: Soil gas Rn monitoring at Cumbre Vieja prior and during the 2021 eruption, La Palma, Canary Islands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10290, 2022.

EGU22-10603 | Presentations | GI6.3 | Highlight

The "Campania Trasparente" multiscale and multimedia monitoring project: an unprecedented experience in Italy. 

Stefano Albanese, Annamaria Lima, Annalise Guarino, Chengkai Qu, Domenico Cicchella, Mauro Esposito, Pellegrino Cerino, Antonio Pizzolante, and Benedetto De Vivo

In 2015, the "Campania Trasparente" project (http://www.campaniatrasparente.it), a monitoring plan focused on assessing the environmental conditions of the territory of the Campania region, started thanks to the financial support of the regional government. The project's general management was in charge of the Experimental Zooprophylactic Institute of Southern Italy (IZSM).
In the project framework, the collection and analysis of many environmental and biological samples (including soil and air and human blood specimen) were completed. The primary aim of the whole project was to explore the existence of a link between the presence of some illnesses in the local population and the status of the environment and generate a reliable database to assess local foodstuff healthiness.
Six research units were active in the framework of the project. As for soil and air, the Environmental Geochemistry Working Group (EGWG) at the Department of Earth, Environment and Resources Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, was in charge of most of the research activities. Specifically, the EGWG completed the elaboration of the data on potentially toxic metals/metalloids (PTMs) and organic contaminants (PAHs, OCPs, Dioxins) in the regional soils and air.
The monitoring of air contaminants lasted more than one year, and it was completed employing passive air samplers (PAS) and deposimeters spread across the whole region.
Three volumes were published, including statistical elaborations and geochemical maps of all the contaminants analysed to provide both the regional government and local scientific and professional community with a reliable tool to approach local environmental problems starting from a sound base of knowledge.
Geochemical distribution patterns of potentially toxic elements (PTEs), for example, were used to establish local geochemical background/baseline intervals for those metals (naturally enriched in regional soils) found to systematically overcome the national environmental guidelines (set by the Legislative Decree 152/2006).
Data from the air, analysed in terms of concentration and time variation, were, instead, fundamental to discriminate the areas of the regional territory characterised by heavy contamination associated with the emission of organic compounds from anthropic sources.

The integration of all the data generated within the "Campania Trasparente" framework, including the data proceeding from the Susceptible Population Exposure Study (SPES), focusing on human biomonitoring (based on blood), allowed the development of a regional-wide conceptual model to be used as a base to generate highly specialised risk assessments for regional population and local communities affected by specific environmental problems.

How to cite: Albanese, S., Lima, A., Guarino, A., Qu, C., Cicchella, D., Esposito, M., Cerino, P., Pizzolante, A., and De Vivo, B.: The "Campania Trasparente" multiscale and multimedia monitoring project: an unprecedented experience in Italy., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10603, 2022.

EGU22-10659 | Presentations | GI6.3

Long-term variations of diffuse CO2, He and H2 at the summit crater of Teide volcano, Tenerife, Canary Islands during 1999-2021 

Germán D. Padilla, Fátima Rodríguez, María Asensio-Ramos, Gladys V. Melián, Mar Alonso, Alba Martín-Lorenzo, Beverley C. Coldwell, Claudia Rodríguez, Jose M. Santana de León, Eleazar Padrón, José Barrancos, Luca D'Auria, Pedro A. Hernández, and Nemesio M. Pérez

Tenerife Island (2,034 km2) is the largest island of the Canarian archipelago. Its structure is controlled by a volcano-tectonic rift-system with NW, NE and NS directions, with the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic system located in the intersection. Teide is 3,718 m.a.s.l. high and its last eruption occurred in 1798 through an adventive cone of Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex. Although Teide volcano shows a weak fumarolic system, volcanic gas emissions observed in the summit cone consist mostly of diffuse CO2 degassing.

 

In this study we investigate the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic system evolution using a comprehensive diffuse degassing geochemical dataset 216 geochemical surveys have been performed during the period 1999-2021 at the summit crater of Teide Volcano covering an area of 6,972 m2. Diffuse CO2 emission was estimated in 38 sampling sites, homogeneously distributed inside the crater, by means of a portable non dispersive infrared (NDIR) CO2 fluxmeter using the accumulation chamber method. Additionally, soil gases were sampled at 40 cm depth using a metallic probe with a 60 cc hypodermic syringe and stored in 10 cc glass vials and send to the laboratory to analyse the He and H2 content by means of quadrupole mass spectrometry and micro-gas chromatography, respectively. To estimate the He and H2 emission rates at each sampling point, the diffusive component was estimated following the Fick’s law and the convective emission component model was estimated following the Darcy’s law. In all cases, spatial distribution maps were constructed averaging the results of 100 simulations following the sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) algorithm, in order to estimate CO2, He and H2 emission rates.

 

During 22 years of the studied period, CO2 emissions ranged from 2.0 to 345.9 t/d, He emissions between 0.013 and 4.5 kg/d and H2 between 1.3 and 64.4 kg/d. On October 2, 2016, a seismic swarm of long-period events was recorded on Tenerife followed by an increase of the seismic activity in and around the island (D’Auria et al., 2019; Padrón et al., 2021). Several geochemical parameters showed significant changes during ∼June–August of 2016 and 1–2 months before the occurrence of the October 2, 2016, long-period seismic swarm (Padrón et al., 2021). Diffuse degassing studies as useful to conclude that the origin of the 2 October 2016 seismic swarm an input of magmatic fluids triggered by an injection of fresh magma and convective mixing. Thenceforth, relatively high values have been obtained in the three soil gases species studied at the crater of Teide, with the maximum emission rates values registered during 2021. This increase reflects a process of pressurization of the volcanic-hydrothermal system. This increment in CO2, He and H2 emissions indicate changes in the activity of the system and can be useful to understand the behaviour of the volcanic system and to forecast future volcanic activity. Monitoring the diffuse degassing rates has demonstrated to be an essential tool for the prediction of future seismic–volcanic unrest, and has become important to reduce volcanic risk in Tenerife.

D'Auria, L., et al. (2019). J. Geophys. Res.124,8739-8752

Padrón, E., et al., (2021). J. Geophys. Res.126,e2020JB020318

How to cite: Padilla, G. D., Rodríguez, F., Asensio-Ramos, M., Melián, G. V., Alonso, M., Martín-Lorenzo, A., Coldwell, B. C., Rodríguez, C., Santana de León, J. M., Padrón, E., Barrancos, J., D'Auria, L., Hernández, P. A., and Pérez, N. M.: Long-term variations of diffuse CO2, He and H2 at the summit crater of Teide volcano, Tenerife, Canary Islands during 1999-2021, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10659, 2022.

EGU22-11493 | Presentations | GI6.3

Analysis and Modelling of 2009-2013 Unrest Episodes at Campi Flegrei Caldera 

Raffaele Castaldo, Giuseppe Solaro, and Pietro Tizzani

Geodetic modelling is a valuable tool to infer volume and geometry of volcanic source system; it represents a key procedure for detecting and characterizing unrest and eruption episodes. In this study, we analyse the 2009–2013 uplift phenomenon at Campi Flegrei (CF) caldera in terms of spatial and temporal variations of the stress/strain field due to the effect of the retrieved inflating source. We start by performing a 3D stationary finite element (FE) modelling of geodetic datasets to retrieve the geometry and location of the deformation source. The geometry of FE domain takes into account both the topography and the bathymetry of the whole caldera. For what concern the definition of domain elastic parameters, we take into account the Vp/Vs distribution from seismic tomography. We optimize our model parameters by exploiting two different geodetic datasets: the GPS data and DInSAR measurements. The modelling results suggest that the best-fit source is a three-axis oblate spheroid ~3 km deep, similar to a sill-like body. Furthermore, in order to verify the reliability of the geometry model results, we calculate the Total Horizontal Derivative (THD) of the vertical velocity component and compare it with those performed with the DInSAR measurements. Subsequently, starting from the same FE modelling domain, we explore a 3D time-dependent FE model, comparing the spatial and temporal distribution of the shear stress and volumetric strain with the seismic swarms beneath the caldera. Finally, We found that low values of shear stress are observed corresponding with the shallow hydrothermal system where low-magnitude earthquakes occur, whereas high values of shear stress are found at depths of about 3 km, where high-magnitude earthquakes nucleate.

How to cite: Castaldo, R., Solaro, G., and Tizzani, P.: Analysis and Modelling of 2009-2013 Unrest Episodes at Campi Flegrei Caldera, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11493, 2022.

EGU22-11874 | Presentations | GI6.3

Time evolution of Land Surface Temperature (LST) in active volcanic areas detected via integration of satellite and ground-based measurements: the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy) case study. 

Andrea Barone, Daniela Stroppiana, Raffaele Castaldo, Stefano Caliro, Giovanni Chiodini, Luca D'Auria, Gianluca Gola, Ferdinando Parisi, Susi Pepe, Giuseppe Solaro, and Pietro Tizzani

Thermal features of environmental systems are increasingly investigated after the development of remote sensing technologies; the increasing availability of Earth Observation (EO) missions allows the retrieval of the Land Surface Temperature (LST) parameter, which is widely used for a large variety of applications (Galve et al., 2018). In volcanic environment, the LST is an indicator of the spatial distribution of thermal anomalies at the ground surface, supporting designed tools for monitoring purposes (Caputo et al., 2019); therefore, LST can be used to understand endogenous processes and to model thermal sources.

In this framework, we present the results of activities carried out in the FLUIDs PRIN project, which aims at the characterization and modeling of fluids migration at different scales (https://www.prinfluids.it/). We propose a multi-scale analysis of thermal data at Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc); this area is well known for hosting thermal processes related to both magmatic and hydrothermal systems (Chiodini et al., 2015; Castaldo et al., 2021). Accordingly, data collected at different scales are suitable to search out local thermal trends with respect to regional ones. In particular, in this work we compare LST estimated from Landsat satellite images covering the entire volcanic area and ground measurements nearby the Solfatara crater.

Firstly, we exploit Landsat data to derive time series of LST by applying an algorithm based on Radiative Transfer Equations (RTE) (Qin et al., 2001; Jimenez-Munoz et al., 2014). The algorithm exploits both thermal infrared (TIR) and visible/near infrared (VIS/NIR) bands of different Landsat missions in the period 2000-2021; we used time series imagery from Landsat 5 (L5), Landsat 7 (L7) and Landsat 8 (L8) satellite missions to retrieve the thermal patterns of the CFc area with spatial resolutions of 30 m for VIS/NIR bands and 60 m to 120 m for TIR bands. Theoretical frequency of acquisition of the Landsat missions is 16 days that is reduced over the study area by cloud cover: Landsat images with high cloud cover were in fact discarded from the time series.

In particular, we process both the daily acquisitions as well nighttime data to provide thermal features at the ground surface in the absence of solar radiation. To emphasize the thermal anomalies of endogenous phenomena, the retrieved LST time-series are corrected following these steps: (i) removal of spatial and temporal outliers; (ii) correction for adiabatic gradient of the air with the altitude; (iii) detection and removal of the seasonal component.

Regarding to the ground-based acquisitions, we consider the data collected by the Osservatorio Vesuviano, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (OV- INGV, Italy, Naples); the dataset consists of 151 thermal measurements distributed within the 2004-2021 time-interval and acquired inside the Solfatara and Pisciarelli areas at a depth of 0.01 m below the ground surface. Similarly, we process this dataset following corrections (i) and (iii).

Finally, we compare the temporal evolution of thermal patterns retrieved by the satellite and ground-based measurements, highlighting the supporting information provided by LST and its integration with data at ground.

How to cite: Barone, A., Stroppiana, D., Castaldo, R., Caliro, S., Chiodini, G., D'Auria, L., Gola, G., Parisi, F., Pepe, S., Solaro, G., and Tizzani, P.: Time evolution of Land Surface Temperature (LST) in active volcanic areas detected via integration of satellite and ground-based measurements: the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy) case study., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11874, 2022.

EGU22-11990 | Presentations | GI6.3

Integrating geophysical, geochemical, petrological and geological data for the thermal and rheological characterization of unconventional geothermal fields: the case study of Long Valley Caldera 

Gianluca Gola, Andrea Barone, Raffaele Castaldo, Giovanni Chiodini, Luca D'Auria, Rubén García-Hernández, Susi Pepe, Giuseppe Solaro, and Pietro Tizzani

We propose a novel multidisciplinary approach to image the thermo-rheological stratification beneath active volcanic areas, such as Long Valley Caldera (LVC), which hosts a magmatic-hydrothermal system. Geothermal facilities near the Casa Diablo locality supply 40 MWe from three binary power plants, exploiting about 850 kg s−1 of 160–180 °C water that circulates within the volcanic sediments 200 to 350 meters deep. We performed a thermal fluid dynamic model via optimization procedure of the thermal conditions of the crust. We characterize the topology of the hot magmatic bodies and the hot fluid circulation (the permeable fault-zones), using both a novel imaging of the a and b parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter law and an innovative procedure analysis of P-wave tomographic models. The optimization procedure provides the permeability of a reservoir (5.0 × 10−14 m2) and of the fault-zone (5.0 · 10−14 – 1.0 × 10−13 m2), as well as the temperature of the magma body (750–800°C). The imaging of the rheological properties of the crust indicates that the brittle/ductile transition occurs about 5 km b.s.l. depth, beneath the resurgent dome. There are again deeper brittle conditions about 15 km b.s.l., agreeing with the previous observations. The comparison between the conductive and the conductive-convective heat transfer models highlights that the deeper fluid circulation efficiently cools the volumes above the magmatic body, transferring the heat to the shallow geothermal system. This process has a significant impact on the rheological properties of the upper crust as the migration of the B/D transition. Our findings show an active magmatic system (6–10 km deep) and confirm that LVC is a long-life silicic caldera system. Furthermore, the occurrence of deep-seated, super-hot geothermal resources 4.5 – 5.0 km deep, possibly in supercritical conditions, cannot be ruled out.

How to cite: Gola, G., Barone, A., Castaldo, R., Chiodini, G., D'Auria, L., García-Hernández, R., Pepe, S., Solaro, G., and Tizzani, P.: Integrating geophysical, geochemical, petrological and geological data for the thermal and rheological characterization of unconventional geothermal fields: the case study of Long Valley Caldera, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11990, 2022.

EGU22-12331 | Presentations | GI6.3 | Highlight

The evaluation of soil organic carbon through VIS-NIR spectroscopy to support the soil health monitoring 

Haitham Ezzy, Anna Brook, Claudio Ciavatta, Francesca Ventura, Marco Vignudelli, and Antonello Bonfante

Increasing the organic matter content of the soil has been presented in the:”4per1000″ proposal as a significant climate mitigation measure able to support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 13 - Climate Action of United Nations.

At the same time, the report of the Mission Board for Soil health and Food, "Caring for soil is caring for life," indicates that one of the targets that must be reached by 2030 is the conservation and increase of soil organic carbon stock.  De facto, the panel clearly indicates the soil organic carbon as one of the indicators that can be used to monitor soil health, and at the same time, if the current soil use is sustainable or not.

Thus it is to be expected that the monitoring of SOC will become requested to check and monitor the sustainability of agricultural practices realized in the agricultural areas. For all the above reasons, the development of a reliable and fast indirect methods to evaluate the SOC is necessary to support different stakeholders (government, municipality, farmer) to monitor SOC at different spatial scales (national, regional, local).

Over the past two decades, data mining approaches in spatial modeling of soil organic carbon using machine learning techniques and artificial neural network (ANN) to investigate the amount of carbon in the soil using remote sensing data has been widely considered. Accordingly, this study aims to design an accurate and robust neural network model to estimate the soil organic carbon using the data-based field-portable spectrometer and laboratory-based visible and near-infrared (VIS/NIR, 350−2500 nm) spectroscopy of soils. The measurements will be on two sets of the same soil samples, the first by the standard protocol of requested laboratories for soil scanning, The second set of the soil samples without any cultivation to simulate the soil condition in the sampling field emphasizes the predictive capabilities to achieve fast, cheap and accurate soil status. Carbon soil parameter will determine using, multivariate regression method used for prediction with Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (Lasso) in interval way (high, medium, and low). The results will increase accuracy, precision, and cost-effectiveness over traditional ex-situ methods.

The contribution has been realized within the international EIT Food project MOSOM (Mapping of Soil Organic Matter; https://www.eitfood.eu/projects/mosom)

How to cite: Ezzy, H., Brook, A., Ciavatta, C., Ventura, F., Vignudelli, M., and Bonfante, A.: The evaluation of soil organic carbon through VIS-NIR spectroscopy to support the soil health monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12331, 2022.

EGU22-12364 | Presentations | GI6.3

Stromboli Volcano observations through the Airborne X-band Interferometric SAR (AXIS) system 

Paolo Berardino, Antonio Natale, Carmen Esposito, Gianfranco Palmese, Riccardo Lanari, and Stefano Perna

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) represents nowadays a well-established tool for day and night and all-weather microwave Earth Oobservation (EO) [1]. In last decades, a number of procedures EO techniques based on SAR data have been indeed devised developed for investigating several natural and anthropic phenomena the monitoring of affecting our planet. Among these, SAR Interferometry (InSAR) and Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) undoubtedly represent a powerful techniques to characterize the deformation processes associated to several natural phenomena, such as eEarthquakes, landslides, subsidences andor volcanic unrest events [2] - [4].

In particular, such techniques can benefit of the operational flexibility offered by airborne SAR systems, which allow us to frequently monitor fast-evolving phenomena, timely reach the region of interest in case of emergency, and observe the same scene under arbitrary flight tracks.

In this work, we present the results relevant to multiple radar surveys carried out over the Stromboli Island, in Italy, through the Italian Airborne X-band Interferometric SAR (AXIS) system. The latter is based on the Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) technology, and is equipped with a three-antenna single-pass interferometric layout [5].

The considered dataset has been collected during three different acquisition campaigns, carried out from July 2019 to June 2021, and consists of radar data acquired along four flight directions (SW-NE, NW-SE, NE-SW, SE-NW), as to describe flight circuits around the island and to illuminate the Stromboli volcano under different points of view.

References

[1] Moreira, P. Prats-Iraola, M. Younis, G. Krieger, I. Hajnsek, K. P. Papathanassiou, “A tutorial on Synthetic Aperture Radar”, IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine, pp. 6-43, March 2013.

[2] Bamler, R., Hartl, P., 1998. Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry. Inverse problems, 14(4), R1.

[3] P. Berardino, G. Fornaro, R. Lanari and E. Sansosti, “A new algorithm for surface deformation monitoring based on small baseline differential SAR interferograms”, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., vol. 40, no. 11, pp. 2375-2383, Nov. 2002.

[4] R. Lanari, M. Bonano, F. Casu, C. De Luca, M. Manunta, M. Manzo, G. Onorato, I. Zinno, “Automatic Generation of Sentinel-1 Continental Scale DInSAR Deformation Time Series through an Extended P-SBAS Processing Pipeline in a Cloud Computing Environment”, Remote Sensing, 2020, 12, 2961.

[5] C. Esposito, A. Natale, G. Palmese, P. Berardino, R. Lanari, S. Perna, “On the Capabilities of the Italian Airborne FMCW AXIS InSAR System”, Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 539.

 

How to cite: Berardino, P., Natale, A., Esposito, C., Palmese, G., Lanari, R., and Perna, S.: Stromboli Volcano observations through the Airborne X-band Interferometric SAR (AXIS) system, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12364, 2022.

EGU22-12927 | Presentations | GI6.3 | Highlight

FRA.SI.project - AN INTEGRATED MULTI-SCALE METHODOLOGIES FOR THE ZONATION OF LANDSLIDE-INDUCED HAZARD IN ITALY 

Pietro Tizzani, Paola Reichenbach, Federica Fiorucci, Massimiliano Alvioli, Massimiliano Moscatelli, and Antonello Bonfante and the Fra.Si. Team

Fra. Si. a national research project supported by the Ministry of the Environment and Land and Sea Protection, develops a coherent set of multiscale methodologies for the assessment and zoning of earthquake-induced landslide hazards. To achieve the goal, the project operates at different geographical, temporal, and organizational scales, and in different geological, geomorphological, and seismic-tectonic contexts. Given the complexity, variability, and extent of earthquake-induced landslides in Italy, operating at multiple scales allows you to (a) maximize the use of available data and information; (b) propose methodologies and experiment with models that operate at different scales and in different contexts, exploiting their peculiarities at the most congenial scales and coherently exporting the results at different scales; and (c) obtain results at scales of interest for different users.

The project defines a univocal and coherent methodological framework for the assessment and zoning of earthquake-induced landslide hazard, integrating existing information and data on earthquake-induced landslide in Italy, available to proponents, available in technical literature and from "open" sources - in favor of the cost-effectiveness of the proposal. The integration exploits a coherent set of modeling tools, expert (heuristic) and numerical (statistical and probabilistic, physically-based, FEM, optimization models). The methodology considers the problem at multiple scales, including: (a) three geographic scales - the national synoptic scale, the regional mesoscale and the local scale; (b) two time scales - the pre-event scale typical of territorial planning and the deferred time of civil protection, and the post-event scale, characteristic of real civil protection time; and (c) different organizational and management scales - from spatial planning and soil defense, including post-seismic reconstruction, to civil protection rapid response. Furthermore, the methodology considers the characteristics of the seismic-induced landslide and the associated hazard in the main geological, geomorphological and seismic-tectonic contexts in Italy.

The project develops methodologies and products for different users and/or users. The former concern methodologies for (i) the synoptic zoning of the hazard caused by earthquake-induced landslides in Italy; (ii) the zoning and quantification of the danger from earthquake-induced landslides on a regional scale; (iii) the quantification of the danger of single deep landslides in the seismic phase; and for (iv) the identification and geological-technical modeling of deep co-seismic landslides starting from advanced DInSAR analyzes from post-seismic satellites.

How to cite: Tizzani, P., Reichenbach, P., Fiorucci, F., Alvioli, M., Moscatelli, M., and Bonfante, A. and the Fra.Si. Team: FRA.SI.project - AN INTEGRATED MULTI-SCALE METHODOLOGIES FOR THE ZONATION OF LANDSLIDE-INDUCED HAZARD IN ITALY, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12927, 2022.

EGU22-323 | Presentations | HS7.1

Study of Downscaling Techniques and Standings of Bias Corrected Global Climate Models for Brahmani Basin at Odisha, India 

Minduri Uma Maheswar Rao, Kanhu Charan Patra, and Akhtar Jahan

Climate change is emerging as one of the most pressing issues facing our environment since it will have severe consequences for both natural and human systems. The ability to estimate future climate is required to investigate the influence of climate change on a river basin. The most reliable instruments for simulating climate change are Global Climate Models (GCMs), also known as General Circulation Models. The performance of a precipitation simulation for the Brahmani river basin spanning 94 locations (with a grid resolution of 0.25° X 0.25°) is evaluated in the present study. The observed and model historical temperature datasets cover the period from 2000-2019. Twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs (ACCESS- CM2, CESM2, CIESM, FGOALS- g3, HadGEM3, GFDL- ESM4, INM- CM5-0, MIROC- ES2L, NESM3, UKESM1, MPI- ESM1, NorESM2) are used for the climate variable (Pr) using five indicators of performance. Indicators used are Average Absolute Relative Deviation (AARD), Skill Score (SS), Absolute Normalized Mean Bias Deviation (ANMBD), Correlation Coefficient (CC), Normalized Root Mean Square Deviation (NRMSD). GCMs are downscaled to finer spatial resolution before ranking them. The statistical downscaling technique is applied to eliminate the systematic biases in GCM simulations. Weights are determined using the Entropy technique for each performance metric. Cooperative Game Theory (CGT), Compromise programming (CP), Weighted Average Technique, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Preference Ranking Organization Method of Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE-2) methods are utilized to rank the GCMs for the study area. GDM is an approach utilized to integrate the ranking techniques of GCMs to get a collective single rank. The results obtained for precipitation suggest that MIROC-ES2L, HadGEM3, GFDL-ESM4, UKESM1, FGOALS-g3 are the top five models that are preferred for the prediction of precipitation in the Brahmani River Basin.

How to cite: Rao, M. U. M., Patra, K. C., and Jahan, A.: Study of Downscaling Techniques and Standings of Bias Corrected Global Climate Models for Brahmani Basin at Odisha, India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-323, 2022.

EGU22-1996 | Presentations | HS7.1

Reduced rainfall in future heavy precipitation events tied to decreased rain area and takes place despite increased rain rate 

Moshe Armon, Francesco Marra, Chaim Garfinkel, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, Ori Adam, Uri Dayan, Yehouda Enzel, and Efrat Morin

Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to deadly and costly natural disasters and, especially in regions where rainfall variability is high, such as the eastern Mediterranean, they are critical to the hydrological budget. Reliable projections of future HPEs are needed, but global climate models are too coarse to explicitly represent rainfall processes during HPEs. In this study we used pseudo global warming high-resolution (1 km2) weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulations to provide rainfall patterns projections based on simulations of 41 pairs of historic and “future” (end of 21st century) HPEs under global warming conditions (RCP8.5 scenario). Changes in rainfall patterns were analyzed through different properties: storm mean conditional rain rate, storm duration, and rain area. A major decrease in rainfall accumulation occurs in future HPEs (−30% averaged across events). This decrease results from a substantial reduction of the storms rain area (−40%) and duration (−9%), and occurs despite an increase in the mean conditional rain intensity (+15%). The consistency of results across events, driven by varying synoptic conditions, suggests that these changes have low sensitivity to the specific synoptic evolution during the events. Future HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean will therefore likely be drier and more spatiotemporally concentrated, with substantial implications on hydrological outcomes of storms. (For hydrological results see: abstract #EGU22-4777)

  • Armon, M., Marra, F., Enzel, Y., Rostkier‐Edelstein, D., Garfinkel, C. I., Adam, O., et al. (2022). Reduced Rainfall in Future Heavy Precipitation Events Related to Contracted Rain Area Despite Increased Rain Rate. Earth’s Future, 10(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002397

How to cite: Armon, M., Marra, F., Garfinkel, C., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., Adam, O., Dayan, U., Enzel, Y., and Morin, E.: Reduced rainfall in future heavy precipitation events tied to decreased rain area and takes place despite increased rain rate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1996, 2022.

Limited-area convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) with horizontal grid-spacing less than 4km and not relying on deep convection parameterisations (CPs) are being used more and more frequently. CPMs represent small-scale features such as deep convection more realistically than coarser regional climate models (RCMs) with deep CPs. Because of computational costs CPMs tend to use smaller horizontal domains than RCMs. As all limited-area models (LAMs), CPMs suffer issues with lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and nesting. We investigated these issues using idealised Big-Brother (BB) experiments with the LAM COSMO-CLM. Grid-spacing of the reference BB simulation was 2.4 km. Deep convection was triggered by idealised hills with driving data from simulations with different spatial resolutions, with/without deep CP, and with different nesting frequencies and LBC formulations. All our nested idealised 2.4-km Little-Brother (LB) experiments performed worse than a coarser CPM simulation (4.9km) which used a four times larger computational domain and yet spent only half the computational cost. A boundary zone of >100 grid-points of the LBs could not be interpreted meteorologically because of spin-up of convection and boundary inconsistencies. Hosts with grid-spacing in the so-called grey zone of convection (ca. 4 - 20km) were not advantageous to the LB performance. The LB's performance was insensitive to the applied LBC formulation and updating (if smaller or equal 3-hourly). Therefore, our idealised experiments suggested to opt for a larger domain instead of a higher resolution even if coarser than usual (~5km) as a compromise between the harmful boundary problems, computational cost and improved representation of processes by CPMs.

How to cite: Ahrens, B. and Leps, N.: On the Challenge of Convection Permitting Precipitation Simulations: Results from Idealised Experiments, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2531, 2022.

EGU22-3074 | Presentations | HS7.1 | Highlight

A global scale assessment of the intensification of rainfall extremes 

Athanasios Paschalis, Yiannis Moustakis, and Yuting Chen

Intensification of precipitation extremes under a changing climate is expected to severely impact societies due to increased flooding, and its impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems. Extensive research in the last decades has identified multiple facets of precipitation changes, from super Clausius – Clapeyron scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature increase, to the change of the intensity and spatial extent of mesoscale convective systems.

In this study we attempt to compile state of the art data and simulations to understand the multiple facets of the changes in precipitation extremes across the world. To do that we combined data from thousands of weather stations globally, reanalysis datasets, and general circulation and convection permitting model simulations. Our results show that:

  • Hourly precipitation extremes scale with temperature at a rate of ~7%/K globally, albeit very large spatial heterogeneities were found, linked to topography, large-scale weather dynamics and local features of atmospheric convection
  • Precipitation extremes change beyond this thermodynamic basis, with increases in the heaviness of the tails of precipitation distribution at fine scales
  • The spatial extent of convective systems is expected to increase
  • Precipitation extremes with shorter spell duration that are distributed more uniformly throughout the year are expected

How to cite: Paschalis, A., Moustakis, Y., and Chen, Y.: A global scale assessment of the intensification of rainfall extremes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3074, 2022.

EGU22-3117 | Presentations | HS7.1 | Highlight

Identifying a regional model for extreme rainfall in current climates – quo vadis? 

Ida Bülow Gregersen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, and Henrik Madsen

Establishing a regional model for intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves remain a vital task for design of urban infrastructures such as sewer systems and storm water detention ponds. However, identifying a suitable model remains tricky as subjective decisions and assumptions, that easily can be challenged, is needed. The talk will focus on recognizing and overcoming these shortcomings to develop a framework that is trusted by the users, i.e., the engineering professionals.

Since 1999 a regional model for IDF-curves has been developed and employed in Denmark. The model consists of a Partial Duration Series (PDS) framework using covariates to explain the regional variation supplemented with a regression across different durations. The first model was based on 41 series with a total of 650 station-years. Currently a fourth model based on a total of 132 series with almost 3000 station-years is being developed. The underlying data for all models come from a network of tipping bucket gauges initiated in 1979.

While the PDS modelling framework to describe extreme rainfall data has been applied and validated every time, the model setup has changed during each of the three updates. The second model, released in 2006, focussed on describing a significant increase in the design intensities and identifying a new regionalization, reducing the number of regions in the country from three to two. The third model, released in 2014, further increased the design intensities substantially, but more importantly, a cycle of precipitation extremes in Denmark with a frequency of around 35 years was acknowledged, and new co-variates were identified, enabling a description of Denmark as one region with variations that could be explained by two spatially continuous covariates.

Presently a new model is being developed. Most parts of the model are unchanged. However, inclusion of many recent relatively short series (10-20 years) both increase the sampling uncertainty and bias the model towards the very peak of the cyclic variation of the precipitation extremes, whereby the mean intensities will increase, as well as the overall uncertainty of the model. Hence the short series have been excluded.  As a result hereof, the engineering community expresses a concern that such an update will not, in general, increase design intensities in a current climate that is regarded as non-stationary with increasing extreme rainfall. For the scientists it could be an indication that the model may have reached a mature state, where the changes are small and random over a 5-year horizon. For the practitioners there is a concern that this may lead to infrastructure design that over time proves inadequate and fails to meet the service levels set to protect the citizens and important assets.  

As indicated above having much data at hand for a regional model does not hinder large structural uncertainties. What are reasonable assumptions and how can they be communicated to the users? When looking across Europe the structural differences in the model setups are even larger, not only reflecting variations in climate, but also choices made by different groups of scientists.

How to cite: Gregersen, I. B., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Danielsen Sørup, H. J., and Madsen, H.: Identifying a regional model for extreme rainfall in current climates – quo vadis?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3117, 2022.

EGU22-4004 | Presentations | HS7.1

Regridding and interpolation of climate data for impacts modelling – some cautionary notes 

Richard Chandler, Clair Barnes, Chris Brierley, and Raquel Alegre

Users of climate data must often confront the problem that information is not available at the precise spatial locations of interest; or the related problem that multiple sources of information provide data at different collections of locations. An example of the first situation is the use of weather station data to calibrate a hydrological or land surface model requiring inputs on a regular grid; an example of the second is the use of information from an ensemble of climate models to sample structural uncertainty, but where each model produces output on its own grid. Dealing with this spatial misalignment is a common first step in any analysis, and is usually done by some form of interpolation. In this poster, we use standard approaches to convert regional climate model (RCM) outputs from the EuroCORDEX ensemble to the common grid used in the UK national Climate Projections (UKCP). We find that although these standard approaches perform acceptably in some situations, in others they can induce surprisingly large biases and inconsistencies in the statistical properties of the resulting fields – particularly those relating to variability and extremes. For example, although the resolutions of the UKCP grid and the EuroCORDEX RCMs are all similar, it is not hard to find locations where the maximum daily precipitation within a month is systematically underestimated by 5-10% in the regridded data; and where the maximum daily precipitation over a 20-year period is systematically underestimated by 25%. These effects could have major implications for impacts studies carried out using interpolated or regridded data, if they are not recognised and dealt with appropriately. We offer some suggestions, varying in ease of implementation, for dealing with the problem.

How to cite: Chandler, R., Barnes, C., Brierley, C., and Alegre, R.: Regridding and interpolation of climate data for impacts modelling – some cautionary notes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4004, 2022.

EGU22-4405 | Presentations | HS7.1

Evaluation of precipitation reanalysis products in space and time for ungauged sites in Slovenia 

Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Nejc Bezak, and Marcos Alexopoulos

Precipitation reanalysis products (PRP) are a promising data source for ungauged regions. Since observed time series are often i) too short, ii) their temporal resolution is not sufficient or iii) the network density is too low, they cannot be used as e.g. input for rainfall-runoff (r-r) modelling and derived flood frequency analysis. Reanalysis products as global simulation of the atmosphere over the last decades solve the aforementioned issues.

From the latest PRP three are most promising due to their spatial and temporal resolution for r-r modelling of small to mesoscale catchments: ERA5-Land (raster with approx. 9 km width), REA6 (6 km) and CFSv2 (22 km). These three PRP are able to cope with the dynamics of the r-r process due to their hourly resolution. The PRP are evaluated for Slovenia (Europe) with both, precipitation characteristics in space and time, and runoff characteristics. For areal precipitation, continuous and event-based characteristics are evaluated as well as precipitation extreme values. Simple correction methods for identified biases are suggested and applied. It can be seen that although the PRP clearly differ from each other, there is no clear ‘favourite’ to use as input for the r-r modelling.

To conclude about the suitability of the PRP for r-r modelling, continuous simulations are carried out with GR4H for 20 catchments in Slovenia (55 km²-480 km²). Models are re-calibrated for each PRP input based on KGE. Simulation results of calibration and validation period are evaluated by runoff extreme values, KGE, flow duration curve and intra-annual cycle. Interestingly, first results show that the deviations of some rainfall characteristics do not necessarily transfer to deviations in runoff characteristics, which can be explained by the high nonlinearity of the r-r process. PRP lead to better, at least similar results for runoff characteristics for catchments without rain gauges in their centre.

How to cite: Müller-Thomy, H., Nistahl, P., Bezak, N., and Alexopoulos, M.: Evaluation of precipitation reanalysis products in space and time for ungauged sites in Slovenia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4405, 2022.

EGU22-4453 | Presentations | HS7.1

Complexity of rainfall dynamics in India in the context of climate change 

Bhadran Deepthi and Bellie Sivakumar

Global climate change has become one of the major environmental issues today. Climate change impacts rainfall (and other hydroclimatic processes) in many ways, including its temporal and spatial variability. Hence, understanding the impact of climate change on rainfall is important to devise and undertake more effective and efficient adaptation and management strategies. The present study attempts to determine the temporal dynamic complexity of monthly historical and future rainfall in India at a spatial resolution of 1º × 1º. The historical and future rainfall data are simulated from 27 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The historical rainfall consists of the rainfall data simulated by GCMs for the period 1961–2014, and the rainfall simulated by the GCMs under shared socio-economic pathway scenarios (SSPs) constitutes the future rainfall. Four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) and two different timeframes (near future (2015–2060) and far future (2061–2099)) are considered to determine how the rainfall and its dynamic complexity vary across the scenarios and timescales. The false nearest neighbor (FNN) algorithm is employed to determine the dimensionality and, hence, the complexity of the rainfall dynamics. The algorithm involves two major steps: (i) reconstruction of the single-variable rainfall time series in a multi-dimensional phase space; and (ii) identification of “false” neighbors in the reconstructed phase space and estimation of the dimension of the rainfall time series. The results suggest that the FNN dimensions of both the historical rainfall and future rainfall simulated by the 27 GCMs across India under all scenarios range from 3 to 20, indicating low to high-level complexity of the rainfall dynamics. However, only less than 1% of the study area shows high-level complexity in historical and future rainfall dynamics. Moreover, around 20 GCMs exhibit low to medium-level complexity of rainfall dynamics in 80% of the study area, with the dimensionality in the range from 3 to 10. Therefore, considering both the historical rainfall and future rainfall under all the four scenarios and the two timeframes considered in this study, the number of GCMs simulating rainfall that exhibits dimensionality in the range 11 to 20 are few. This may be an indication that the complexity of rainfall dynamics in India in the future will be low-to-medium dimensional.

How to cite: Deepthi, B. and Sivakumar, B.: Complexity of rainfall dynamics in India in the context of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4453, 2022.

EGU22-5071 | Presentations | HS7.1

Impact of GPM Precipitation Error Characteristics on Hydrological Applications 

Ankita Pradhan and Indu Jayaluxmi

Precipitation-measuring satellites constitute a constellation of microwave and infrared sensors in geosynchronous earth orbit. The limited sampling of passive microwave constellations continues to be a problem, affecting applications such as hydrological modeling. Recent constellations have contributed in the construction of the next generation of earth and space science missions by allowing measurement settings to be customized to meet changing scientific understanding. Our study focuses on examining the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation mission. The aim of the study is to examine the impact of different uncertainties carried by the GPM constellation on hydrological applications. Firstly we investigated the evaluation and comparison of spatial sampling error for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission orbital data products. The region over India with high seasonal rainfall appears to have lower sampling uncertainty, and vice versa, with some exceptions due to differences in precipitation variability and space-time correlation length.  Second, we investigated how intermittency produced by low temporal sampling propagates through a hydrological model and contributes to stream flow uncertainty. We also examined the effect of grid resolution and how it relates to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This paper proposes and discusses techniques for quantifying the influence of grid resolution as a function of spatial–temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation based on these findings. Thirdly, we have quantified the influence of two different algorithms i.e top down and bottom up approach utilizing precipitation products that includes the Global Precipitation Measurement mission's (GPM) integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals (IMERG) late run, the SM2RAIN-Climate Change Initiative (SM2RAIN-CCI), and the SM2RAIN-Advanced SCATerometer (SM2RAIN-ASCAT) on hydrological simulations. The results from our study indicate that precipitation forcing at 6-hourly integration outperforms the stream flow simulations as compared to 3-hourly and 12-hourly forcing integration times. IMERG based precipitation also contains significant bias which is propagated into hydrological models when used as precipitation forcing.

How to cite: Pradhan, A. and Jayaluxmi, I.: Impact of GPM Precipitation Error Characteristics on Hydrological Applications, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5071, 2022.

We present an analysis of uncertainty in model-based Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates. The focus of the study is on “model-based” PMP derived from WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model reconstructions of severe historical storms and amplified by the addition of moisture in the boundary conditions (so-called Relative Humidity Maximization technique). Model-based PMP offers numerous advantages over the currently-used approach that is described in NOAA Hydrometeorological Reports. By scaling moisture and producing the resulting precipitation according to model formulation, the model-based approach circumvents the need for linearly scaling precipitation. Despite the significant improvement this represents, model-based PMP retains some degree of uncertainty that precludes its use in operational settings until the uncertainty is rigorously evaluated. This paper presents an ensemble of PMP simulations that samples recognized sources of uncertainty: (1) initial/boundary condition error, (2) choice of physics parametrizations and (3) model error due to unresolved subgrid processes. To our knowledge, this is the first uncertainty analysis conducted for model-based PMP. We applied this ensemble approach to the Feather River watershed (Oroville dam) in California. We first carried out in-depth evaluation of model reconstructions and found that the performance of some storm reconstructions that underlie the PMP estimate is not ideal, though the lack of uncertainty information about observations currently prevents us from identifying “well-reconstructed” storms or performing bias correction. That being said, our ensemble indicates that the 72-hour maximized precipitation totals used for PMP estimation do not differ greatly (110% at most) from the single-value estimate when model uncertainty is considered. We emphasize that model-based PMP estimates should always be presented as a range of values that reflects the uncertainties that exist, but concerns about model uncertainty should not hinder the development of model-based PMP.

How to cite: Tarouilly, E., Cannon, F., and Lettenmaier, D.: Improving confidence in model-based Probable Maximum Precipitation : Assessing sources of model uncertainty in storm reconstruction and maximization, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6217, 2022.

EGU22-6342 | Presentations | HS7.1 | Highlight

Influence of morphology on the spatial variability of rainstorms over Italy 

Paola Mazzoglio, Ilaria Butera, Massimiliano Alvioli, and Pierluigi Claps

The investigation of the influence of terrain morphology on rainfall extremes has never been conducted over the entire Italy, where some studies have been carried out over limited areas. We then present the first systematic investigation of the role of elevation and other morphological attributes on rainfall extremes over Italy, that is made possible by using the Improved Italian – Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I2-RED). I2-RED is a database of short duration (1 to 24 hours) annual maximum rainfall depths collected from 1916 until 2019 by more than 5200 rain gauges.

The analyses involved the relations between morphology and the mean annual rainfall extremes (index rainfall) using univariate and multivariate regressions. These relations, built countrywide, demonstrated that the elevation alone can explain only a part of the spatial variance. The inclusion of regression covariates as longitude, latitude, distance from the coastline, indexes of obstructions and the mean annual rainfall depth demonstrated to be significant in relations built at the national scale.

However, high local bias with notable spatial correlation derives from the national-scale analysis. This led us to focus on smaller areas. We started dividing Italy into 4 main regions: the Alps, the Apennines, and the two main islands (i.e. Sicily and Sardinia). A dedicated multiple linear regression analysis was conducted over each of these areas. Evident improvements were obtained through this approach; nevertheless, clusters of high residuals persisted, especially in orographically-complex areas. A different approach was then undertaken, based on a preemptive subdivision of Italy in morphologically similar regions, to both reduce the clustering of errors and better define the role of elevation. Using four morphological classifications of Italy from the literature, we applied simple regression models to the rain gauges available inside each region. Among all, the classification that embeds hydrological information turned out to produce the best results in terms of local bias, MAE and RMSE, outperforming the multivariate relations obtained at the national scale. This approach proved to better reproduce the effects of geography and morphology on the spatial variability of rainfall extremes.

Our analysis confirmed a general increase of 24-hour rainfall depths with elevation, as already pointed out by studies conducted over smaller areas. For 1-hour rainfall depths, in flat or in pre-hill zones a modest increase with elevation is visible, while over the Alps and in most of the Apennines a reverse orographic effect (i.e., a reduction of rainfall depth with increasing elevation) is clearly detected, confirming previous outcomes in those areas.

How to cite: Mazzoglio, P., Butera, I., Alvioli, M., and Claps, P.: Influence of morphology on the spatial variability of rainstorms over Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6342, 2022.

EGU22-6677 | Presentations | HS7.1

Can Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimates Reproduce Extreme Precipitation Statistics in Central Arizona? 

Nehal Ansh Srivastava and Giuseppe Mascaro

In this study, we assess the ability of 4-km, 1-h Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) from the Stage IV analysis of the NEXRAD radar network to reproduce the statistics of extreme precipitation (P) in central Arizona, USA. As reference, we use 19 years of records from a dense network of 257 rain gages. For each radar pixel and gage record, we fit the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to the series of annual maximum P at durations, τ, from 1 to 24 hours. We found that the GEV scale and shape parameters estimated from the radar QPEs are slightly negatively biased when compared to estimates from gage records at τ = 1 h; this bias tends to 0 for τ ≥ 6 h. As a result, the radar GEV quantiles for return period, TR, from 2 to 50 years exhibit negative bias at τ = 1 h (median between -23% and -12% for different TR’s), but the bias is gradually reduced as τ increases (average of +4% for τ = 24 h). The relative root-mean-square-error (RRMSE) ranges from 17% to 44% across all τ’s and TR’s and these values are similar to those computed between gages and operational design storms from NOAA Atlas 14. Lastly, we found that radar QPEs reproduce fairly well observed scaling relationships between the GEV location and scale parameters and P duration, τ. Results of our work provide confidence in the utility of Stage IV QPEs to characterize the spatiotemporal statistical properties of extreme P and, in turn, to improve the generation of design storm values.

How to cite: Srivastava, N. A. and Mascaro, G.: Can Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimates Reproduce Extreme Precipitation Statistics in Central Arizona?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6677, 2022.

EGU22-8792 | Presentations | HS7.1

Space-time simulation of storms and beyond! 

Simon Michael Papalexiou, Francesco Serinaldi, and Emilio Porcu

Simulating storms, or hydro-environmental fluxes in general, in space and time is challenging and crucial to inform environmental risk analysis and decision making under variability and uncertainty. Here, we advance space-time modelling by enabling simulation of random fields (RF) described by general velocity fields and anisotropy. This advances the skills of the Complete Stochastic Modeling Solution (CoSMoS) framework in space and time and enables RF's simulations that reproduce desired: (a) non-Gaussian marginal distribution, (b) spatiotemporal correlation structure (STCS), (c) velocity fields with locally varying speed and direction that describe advection, and (d) locally varying anisotropy. We demonstrate applications of CoSMoS by simulating storms at fine spatiotemporal scales that move across an area, spiraling fields such weather cyclones, air masses converging to (or diverging from) a point and more. The methods are implemented in the CoSMoS R package freely available in CRAN.

Reference: Papalexiou, S. M., Serinaldi, F., & Porcu, E. (2021). Advancing Space-Time Simulation of Random Fields: From Storms to Cyclones and Beyond. Water Resources Research, 57(8), e2020WR029466. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029466

How to cite: Papalexiou, S. M., Serinaldi, F., and Porcu, E.: Space-time simulation of storms and beyond!, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8792, 2022.

EGU22-10253 | Presentations | HS7.1

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on different time scales 

András Bárdossy

Rainfall is highly variable in space and time. The knowledge of precipitation variability is very important for design or for uncertainty assessment of models. In this contribution two different aspects of variability are investigated – the treatment of zero observations for spatial interpolation and the problem of high order dependence. The finer the temporal resolution of precipitation observations the more zeros have to be considered. Should one include all zeros for the description of the spatial variability (for example variograms)? Examples corresponding to different time aggregations are show that zeros need a specific treatment. High order dependence is investigated using time series observed at multiple sites. Results are compared to a meta-Gaussian approach. A large high-resolution dataset from South-West Germany is used to demonstrate the problems and the different approaches.

How to cite: Bárdossy, A.: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on different time scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10253, 2022.

EGU22-10355 | Presentations | HS7.1

Combining commercial microwave link and rain gauge observations to estimate countrywide precipitation: a stochastic reconstruction and pattern analysis approach 

Nico Blettner, Christian Chwala, Barbara Haese, Sebastian Hörning, and Harald Kunstmann

Precipitation is characterized by large spatial variability. For hydrological applications it is crucial to estimate precipitation such that spatial correlation lengths and precipitation patterns are represented accurately.

We derive countrywide precipitation estimates using approx. 4000 commercial microwave links (CMLs) obtained from Ericsson and approx. 1000 rain gauges operated by the German Weather Service. CML and gauge observations are regarded as non-linear and linear constraints on the spatial estimate, respectively.

We apply the Random-Mixing-Whittaker-Shannon method in a Python based environment (RMWSPy) to reconstruct ensembles of precipitation fields. With RMWSPy, linear combinations of unconditional random spatial fields are conditioned to the observational data. This involves the exact local representation of rain gauge observations as well as the consideration of the path-averaged precipitation along the CMLs. Additionally, the method ensures that resulting estimates are similar to the data with respect to spatial correlations and marginal distributions. The stochastic process allows for variability at unobserved locations and thereby the calculation of ensembles.

We evaluate the spatial pattern of our results by performance characteristics such as ensemble Structure-, Amplitude-, and Location-error (eSAL). This approach considers precipitation objects as connected areas that exceed a certain precipitation value, and involves the analysis of the objects’ shapes and locations. Thereby, it is possible to quantify aspects of precipitation patterns in a way that is not possible with standard performance metrics which are based on pixel-by-pixel comparisons.

We find that our precipitation estimates are in good agreement with the gauge-adjusted weather radar product RADOLAN-RW of the German Weather Service which we use as a reference. In particular, we see advantages in reproducing the pattern of precipitation objects, in terms of smaller structure- and location-errors, when comparing our ensemble-based Random-Mixing approach to an Ordinary Kriging interpolation.

How to cite: Blettner, N., Chwala, C., Haese, B., Hörning, S., and Kunstmann, H.: Combining commercial microwave link and rain gauge observations to estimate countrywide precipitation: a stochastic reconstruction and pattern analysis approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10355, 2022.

EGU22-10437 | Presentations | HS7.1

Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Measurement with Weather Radar 

Angelica Caseri and Carlos Frederico Angelis

Extreme rainfall events can cause flash floods and are responsible for socioeconomic damage worldwide. In Campinas, southeastern Brazil, countless events take place throughout the year. In order to monitor and predict these events, with the support of Fapesp's SOS-Chuva project, a mobile rainfall radar was installed in the region. With the purpose to identify the accuracy of this data, the radar data were compared with rain gauge data. Through this study, it is noted that, at some points, the difference between the rain gauges measurements and the radar data is significant, which may hinder the calibration and performance of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model. To improve the rainfall measurement considering both data source, this study proposes to combine both information and generate rainfall probabilistic maps, derived from geostatistical methods, thus making possible to quantify the uncertainty of these data.

How to cite: Caseri, A. and Angelis, C. F.: Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Measurement with Weather Radar, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10437, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10437, 2022.

EGU22-10931 | Presentations | HS7.1

Assessing future extreme rainfall trends through multifractal scaling arguments: A CONUS-wide analysis based on NA-CORDEX model outputs 

Stergios Emmanouil, Andreas Langousis, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou

The quantification of future flood risk, as well as the assessment of impacts attributed to the evolution of extreme rainfall events under rapidly changing climatic conditions, require multi-year information at adequately high spatiotemporal scales. The spatial and temporal evolution of regional extreme rainfall patterns, however, is quite challenging to describe due to natural climate variability and local topography. Hence, the use of conventional climate model outputs to evaluate the frequency of extreme events may not be conclusive due to significant epistemic uncertainties.  To date, there is limited knowledge on how extreme precipitation patterns will evolve under the influence of climate change, at spatiotemporal resolutions suitable for hydrological modeling, and considering the non-stationarity of rainfall as a process. In this study, we evaluate future trends related to extreme rainfall using hourly estimates acquired through the North American (NA) CORDEX Program (see Mearns et al., 2017), spanning from 1979 to 2100, over a 25-km CONUS-wide grid. In view of the practical importance of high spatial and temporal resolutions in hydrological modeling, we first simultaneously bias-correct and statistically downscale the NA-CORDEX model outputs, by using the two-component theoretical distribution framework described in Emmanouil et al. (2021), as well as the Stage IV weather radar-based gridded precipitation data (4-km spatial resolution) as a high-resolution reference. To investigate the validity of the yielded rainfall intensity quantiles, we use as benchmark the hourly rainfall measurements offered by NOAA’s rain gauge network (National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017). Finally, to evaluate the effects of climate change on the spatial and temporal evolution of rare precipitation events while taking into consideration the nonstationary nature of rainfall, we apply a robust (Emmanouil et al., 2020) parametric approach founded on multifractal scaling arguments (Langousis et al., 2009) to sequential 10-year segments of the data, where conditions can be fairly assumed stationary. In view of revealing future infrastructure vulnerabilities over a wide range of characteristic temporal scales and exceedance probability levels, our analysis is founded on Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, which are derived using the previously acquired CORDEX-based, gridded (4-km), hourly precipitation estimates, and cover the entire CONUS for a period of 120 years.

References

Emmanouil, S., Langousis, A., Nikolopoulos, E. I., & Anagnostou, E. N. (2020). Quantitative assessment of annual maxima, peaks-over-threshold and multifractal parametric approaches in estimating intensity-duration-frequency curves from short rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 589, 125151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125151

Emmanouil, S., Langousis, A., Nikolopoulos, E. I., & Anagnostou, E. N. (2021). An ERA-5 Derived CONUS-Wide High-Resolution Precipitation Dataset Based on a Refined Parametric Statistical Downscaling Framework. Water Resources Research, 57(6), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029548

Langousis, A., Veneziano, D., Furcolo, P., & Lepore, C. (2009). Multifractal rainfall extremes: Theoretical analysis and practical estimation. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 39(3), 1182–1194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.06.004

Mearns, L. O., McGinnis, S., Korytina, D., Arritt, R., Biner, S., Bukovsky, M., et al. (2017). The NA-CORDEX dataset, version 1.0. NCAR Climate Data Gateway. Boulder (CO): The North American CORDEX Program, 10.

National Centers for Environmental Information. (2017). Cooperative Observers Program Hourly Precipitation Dataset (C-HPD), Version 2.0 Beta. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, [accessed July 17, 2020].

How to cite: Emmanouil, S., Langousis, A., Nikolopoulos, E. I., and Anagnostou, E. N.: Assessing future extreme rainfall trends through multifractal scaling arguments: A CONUS-wide analysis based on NA-CORDEX model outputs, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10931, 2022.

EGU22-11055 | Presentations | HS7.1

Intensity-dependence of interarrival times and run lengths in multifractal rainfall 

Alin-Andrei Carsteanu, Andreas Langousis, and Roberto Deidda

Mass scaling of atmospheric precipitation has been successfully characterized by multifractal frameworks in the literature dedicated to this subject. However, the dependence of the statistics of interarrival times and run lengths on the employed detection threshold, as theoretically predicted by multiplicative cascade models with different degrees of multifractality, is yet another aspect of interest when such models are being used for the purpose of rainfall modelling. It must be noted that interarrival times and run lengths are complementary variables, by representing uninterrupted time intervals above and below the detection threshold, respectively. The present communication deals with the intricacies of parametrizing and validating those aspects of multifractal rainfall models.

How to cite: Carsteanu, A.-A., Langousis, A., and Deidda, R.: Intensity-dependence of interarrival times and run lengths in multifractal rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11055, 2022.

EGU22-11126 | Presentations | HS7.1

Accounting for anisotropy in the simulation of rainfall fields with blunt extension of discrete Universal Multifractal cascades 

Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, and Daniel Schertzer

Universal Multifractals have been widely used to characterize and simulate geophysical fields extremely variable over a wide range of scales such as rainfall. Despite strong limitations, notably its non-stationnarity, discrete cascades are often used to simulate such fields. Recently, blunt cascades have been introduced in 1D, 2D, and space-time to cope with this issue while remaining in the simple framework of discrete cascades. It basically consists in geometrically interpolating over moving windows the multiplicative increments at each cascade steps.

 

While being a well-known feature of rainfall fields, anisotropy is not yet addressed with blunt extensions of discrete Universal Multifractal cascades. In this paper, we suggest to extend this framework to account for anisotropy. It basically consists in using different sizes according to the direction for the moving window over which the interpolation is carried out. In a first step Multifractal expected behaviour is theoretically established. Then it is numerically confirmed with the help of ensembles of stochastic simulations. Finally, the features of simulated fields are compared with actual rainfall data ones. Data collected with help of a dual polarisation X-band radar operated by HM&Co-ENPC is used (radx.enpc.fr/).

 

Authors acknowledge the RW-Turb project (supported by the French National Research Agency - ANR-19-CE05-0022), for partial financial support.

How to cite: Gires, A., Tchiguirinskaia, I., and Schertzer, D.: Accounting for anisotropy in the simulation of rainfall fields with blunt extension of discrete Universal Multifractal cascades, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11126, 2022.

EGU22-11273 | Presentations | HS7.1

A new perspective on projected precipitation changes in Tanzania 

Stephanie Gleixner, Jascha Lehmann, and Christoph Gornott

Informed decision-making on adaptation strategies for future climate change need reliable climate information. In particular, vulnerable economies like Tanzania, which is strongly reliant on rain-fed agriculture, struggle with the lack of agreement on precipitation changes between the climate models. In order to find robustness in these projections, we compare precipitation simulations from the CORDEX Africa Ensemble under three emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) within different precipitation categories defined by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We find that despite the disagreement on the sign of the total precipitation trend, there is strong agreement among on a decrease in normal conditions and an increase in both extreme wet and extreme dry conditions throughout the 21st century. The differences between the projections in terms of total precipitation are related to shifts of (near) normal conditions to wetter conditions in the case of ‘wetter’ projections and to drier conditions for ’drier’ projections. These results indicate an overall broadening of the rainfall distribution especially toward extremely wet conditions.

How to cite: Gleixner, S., Lehmann, J., and Gornott, C.: A new perspective on projected precipitation changes in Tanzania, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11273, 2022.

EGU22-11629 | Presentations | HS7.1

Clarifying the importance of serial correlation and field significance in detection of trends in extreme rainfall 

Stefano Farris, Roberto Deidda, Francesco Viola, and Giuseppe Mascaro

Rainfall extremes are expected to intensify in a warmer environment according to theoretical arguments and climate model projections. Inferential analysis involving statistical trend testing procedures are frequently used to validate this scenario by investigating whether significant changes in precipitation measurements can be detected. Recent studies have shown that statistical trend tests applied to hydrological data might be misinterpreted if (1) the analyzed time series exhibit autocorrelation, and (2) field significance is not considered when tests are applied multiple times. In this study, these aspects have been investigated using time series of frequencies (or counts) of rainfall extremes derived from long-term (100 years) daily rainfall records of 1087 gauges of the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) database. Monte Carlo experiments are carried out by generating random synthetic count time series with the Poisson first-order Integer-valued AutoRegressive model (Poisson-INAR(1)) characterized by different sample size, level of autocorrelation, and trend magnitude. The main results are as follows. (1) Empirical autocorrelations are highly consistent with those exhibited by uncorrelated and non-stationary count time series, while empirical trends cannot be explained as the exclusive effect of autocorrelation; moreover, accounting for the impact of serial correlation has a limited impact on tests’ performance. (2) Accounting for field significance prevents wrong interpretations of results of multiple tests by limiting type-I errors, but it may reduce test power; a careful use of local test outcomes could help identify regions with potentially significant changes where clusters of multiple trends with coherent signs are detected. (3) Statistical trend tests based on linear and Poisson regressions are more powerful than nonparametric tests (e.g., Mann-Kendall) when applied to count time series. Finally, using these methodological insights, spatial patterns of statistically significant increasing (decreasing) trends emerge in central and eastern North America, northern Europe, part of northern Asia, and central regions of Australia (southwestern North America, part of southern Europe, and southwestern and southeastern regions of Australia).

How to cite: Farris, S., Deidda, R., Viola, F., and Mascaro, G.: Clarifying the importance of serial correlation and field significance in detection of trends in extreme rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11629, 2022.

Evaluation of winter mean precipitation over North India in CMIP6 models

Nischal Sharma1, Raju Attada1*, A. R. Dandi2, R. K. Kunchala3, Anant Parekh2, J. S. Chowdary2

1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences - Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali, Punjab – 140306

2 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

3Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India

*E-mail of corresponding author: rajuattada@iisermohali.ac.in

 

Abstract

North India receives a significant proportion of annual precipitation during winter (December to February) through mid-latitudinal cyclonic perturbations (Western Disturbances) embedded in subtropical westerly jet stream. This region accounts for a paucity of available in-situ observations owing to complex topography which underpins the necessity of other non-conventional tools for precipitation estimation. Global Climate Models are an effective tool to investigate global monsoon systems and are being extensively used to better understand spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation. In the present study, north Indian winter precipitation (NIWP) and its variability has been characterized in 30 CMIP6 historical simulations (1979-2014) and compared with IMD gridded data observations. Normalized biases in different models relative to observations have been used to categorize models as wet (11), dry (8) and normal (11) models and further composite analysis has been conducted for these model categories. Our findings suggest that all the models show highest precipitation orientation along the western Himalayan belt, with the normal model category showcasing quite similar results to observations. Wet models show highest variability, errors and positive bias over the region while dry models exhibit least variability and negative bias. Majority of the models show an overall good correlation with observations. The representation of winter mean dynamical and circulation patterns has been carried out using composite analysis of three model categories relative to observations. The composite analysis reveals an intensified jet in both wet and dry model categories, with a southward shift of the jet position in wet models.  Detailed results will be discussed.

Keywords: Global climate models, CMIP6, winter precipitation

How to cite: Sharma, N.: Evaluation of winter mean precipitation over North India in CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12030, 2022.

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